Duke vs. CSU (11/8/2019 7 pm, ACCN) Pre-game & In-game thread

[TeacherTom]

I'm making the trip to the game Friday. Anyone else going?

[devildeac]

I'm making the trip to the game Friday. Anyone else going?

We'll be there. PM me.

[chrishoke]

I'll be there. Can't wait.

[TruBlu]

I can’t be there. I’ll wait. (Stupid work requirements)

[ChillinDuke]

As good of a place as any to post a preview! (I'll kindly ask the mods to change the thread title to include time/date/clever pun optional.)

Our Blue Devils head home to play the Colorado State Rams fresh off their 11-point win at home over 300+ ranked Denver. CSU is not terrible, finishing last season as KP #180, but they're not great and they lost ~33% of their scoring after graduating senior guard JD Paige (15.6 ppg) and losing redshirt junior guard Anthony Masinton-Bonner (11.2 ppg) to transfer to Missouri State. Lucky for them, they do return their leading scorer, senior big man Nico Carvacho. CSU is led by head coach Niko Medved, a former assistant of 7 years there before a 1-year stint as the head coach at Drake and then 3 years at Furman. Medved is in his second year as the head coach at CSU.

Guards:

Outside of Carvacho, the Rams will rely on 6'4", redshirt senior guard Kris Martin who stuffed the stat sheet against Denver with 18 pts, 5 boards, 2 asts, 2 steals, and a block with only 1 turnover in 35 minutes. He'll get as much time as he can handle against us. Martin is not a particularly strong 3pt shooter going 1-6 in the opener and shooting 33% last season on 109 attempts. Martin played two seasons at Oral Roberts before transferring to CSU.

Next to Martin in the backcourt will likely be 5'10" sophomore Kendle Moore who didn't do much against Denver (6 pts, 3 asts, and a steal) but played 31 minutes. Last season, Martin and Moore combined for 17.8 ppg and 6 rpg with a 1.48 A:T - not exactly mind-blowing stuff, but expect a higher usage and focus on them as the #2 and #3 scorers are gone from last year. Neither is a particular long range threat, shooting 33% and 32% from deep, respectively.

Rounding out CSU's starting 3-guard backcourt against Denver was 6'0" freshman Isaiah Stevens who scored 7 pts and grabbed 2 boards in 27 minutes. He was 1-3 from deep. I'm not going to look up his "ranking", high school stats, social security number, etc as I suspect there's not much to see here.

The wildcard here is 6'0" redshirt senior Hyron Edwards who announced his decision to transfer from CSU only to reneg and return. As far as I can tell, Hyron committed to Texas Tech back in 2016 but doesn't appear to have matriculated as he had a standout year at Trinity Valley Community College and played his first full D-1 collegiate season with CSU last year, averaging 6.8ppg, 2.8rpg, 2.5apg in more than 20mpg (but only 1 start). Edwards did not start against Denver, but he had a decent line with 10 and 3 assists in 22 mins while hitting his lone 3 attempt (although he shot 29% from 3 last year).

These 4 guards will be effectively the entire CSU backcourt. They played 115 minutes against Denver (120 mins available across 3 positions).

Forwards/Wings:

The main man here is 6'6" sophomore forward Adam Thistlewood who started 25 games last year as a freshman and averaged 8.6/2.9/1.0 in 29mpg. Thistlewood is the best returning 3pt shooter on the team at 38.7% last season. He went 2-4 against Denver and scored all 15 of his points with threes and free throws (9-10). He didn't even attempt a shot inside the arc. You might say that's novel in a 1-game sample, but he shot almost 70% of his 200+ field goal attempts last year from 3pt range. Basically want to stick with Thistlewood on the arc at all times.

Backing up Thistlewood appears to be 6'5" freshman David Roddy who played 14 minutes against Denver and put up 4 and 6 but 0-2 from deep. Similar to the other freshman Stevens, I'm not going to dig in here.

Big Men:

And at last, for those of you reading intently, we get to the crux of the matter. 6'11", 245# redshirt senior center Nico "Macho" Carvacho [my nickname] out of Frisco, TX. Nico started all 32 games for the Rams last year, averaging 16.1, 12.9, and 2.1 with an A:T of 1.00. He isn't a particular defensive force or rim protector with only 19 steals and 21 blocks last year. But he is their clear best offensive player and team leader. Not convinced? Fine... Entering this season, Carvacho is already the all-time leader in rebounds in Colorado State history (950), and he is 2nd in Mountain West Conference history - again, with a full season to play. He also has the school record in double-doubles (35) and the conference record in league-only games (25). He enters 30th in CSU history in scoring (1,002). He added another to his total with 10 and 11 against Denver in 29 minutes. Last season, he was 1st team All Mountain West (media and coaches), All-MWC defensive team (coaches), and one of the ten finalists for the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar Center of the Year Award.

Backing up Carvacho is...really no one. But I'll be respectful and note 6'9", 215# freshman Dischon Thomas out of Phoenix, AZ who logged 1 and 1 against Denver in 10 minutes. He did manage 4 fouls to help boost his statistical relevance. OK, I'll stop ragging.

Conclusion:

The Rams have a few pieces to keep your eye on, namely (1) a big, veteran, productive center, (2) one solid three point shooter, and (3) a stable of undersized but not prolific guards. But outside of Carvacho, there's nothing here that really screams major problems for our Devils. Carey will have to manage Carvacho, although for some reason I sense (fear?) Jack White factoring into that battle. Stanley/Moore/White will have to stick with Thistlewood. But other than those two tasks, it's hard to envision our defensive backcourt struggling with the undersized guards of CSU who can't shoot all that well and don't appear to be particularly adept scorers.

KenPom has us by 23. That sounds about right to me, although I'd maybe take Duke +23. Feels about right.

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

<snip>

KenPom has us by 23. That sounds about right to me, although I'd maybe take Duke +23. Feels about right.

- Chillin

***I'd maybe take Duke -23. I am ashamed at my typo as one of the Board Degenerates...

- Chillin

[MartyClark]

Like some of you, I am confused by the ACC Network.

Is this game televised or streamed?

[Tappan Zee Devil]

Like some of you, I am confused by the ACC Network.

Is this game televised or streamed?

According to my Directv listings, it is televised on ACCN.

[MChambers]

"Macho" Carvacho is great, even if ChillinDuke made it up.

[budwom]

***I'd maybe take Duke -23. I am ashamed at my typo as one of the Board Degenerates...

- Chillin

games like this, the spread always seems to come down to some benchwarmer launching a three with seconds left.

[DukieTiger]

***I'd maybe take Duke -23. I am ashamed at my typo as one of the Board Degenerates...

- Chillin

To be fair, you’d *probably* also take Duke +23 if you could get it. :p

[Troublemaker]

games like this, the spread always seems to come down to some benchwarmer launching a three with seconds left.

With Duke's stated intention to redshirt Savarino and Worthington, the finishing lineup of blowouts might consist of this not-too-shabby bunch:

Buckmire - Moore - Baker - Robinson - DeLaurier

That's three guys that some of us thought could've been starters + JRob and Buckmire who anecdotally (and relying on faulty memory) seem to play well in garbage time.

This might not be built into Duke's point spreads early on.

/degeneracy

[53n206]

games like this, the spread always seems to come down to some benchwarmer launching a three with seconds left.

Or we're up by 30 and K starts clearing the bench with 5 minutes left.

[UrinalCake]

Wouldn’t be surprised to have a letdown game. Remember that last season after the Kentucky thumping we played Army at home, a terrible team, and the lead was single digits several minutes into the second half. With that said, the final margin will likely be 20+, but being able to come right back and play hard after an emotionally draining game is part of what the freshmen will have to learn.

I’m jealous of those who will be there! Looking forward to seeing continued improvement and what types of adjustments will be made.

[OldPhiKap]

Like some of you, I am confused by the ACC Network.

Is this game televised or streamed?

Where I am, neither. F the ACCN. And Comcast. And UNC.

[jwillfan]

Where I am, neither. F the ACCN. And Comcast. And UNC.

Get a sling TV sub for $25/month and you get it. I forget if it's blue or orange, whichever has ESPN. Can stream on anything. Sometimes they have a pre-pay for 2 months, get a Roku deal.

[duke2x]

Get a sling TV sub for $25/month and you get it. I forget if it's blue or orange, whichever has ESPN. Can stream on anything. Sometimes they have a pre-pay for 2 months, get a Roku deal.

This was subtly announced in August. You have to pay $35 + tax ($37-38) to get ACCN on Orange Sports Extra.

[devildeac]

Where I am, neither. F the ACCN. And Comcast. And 9F UNC.

Clarification because they deserve a lot more Fs.

[UrinalCake]

This was subtly announced in August. You have to pay $35 + tax ($37-38) to get ACCN on Orange Sports Extra.

Yep, which makes it a better deal IMO to go with YouTube TV for $50/month and get access to all channels including locals plus get unlimited DVR. In my case I went with Hulu Live, it's about the same cost but since I was already paying for regular Hulu, it works out to $39 more to get the live channels.

[Troublemaker]

Wouldn’t be surprised to have a letdown game. Remember that last season after the Kentucky thumping we played Army at home, a terrible team, and the lead was single digits several minutes into the second half. With that said, the final margin will likely be 20+, but being able to come right back and play hard after an emotionally draining game is part of what the freshmen will have to learn.

I don't see much of a letdown possibility here after that mess of a game against Kansas. Shoot, almost all of our players probably feel like they should've played better and will be itching to put a good offensive performance on the board. (i.e. It's a very different situation than coming off the blowout of Kentucky last season.) It's certainly possible for Duke to not play well, but I think it would be because of random variance and/or us not being that good. Or even CSU being better than expected. CSU is well-coached and has a very good big man that we can't double-team because they put 4 shooters on the floor. They have multiple guards that can handle.

[ChillinDuke]

Don't poke the bear, Kris. Don't poke the bear. (https://www.denverpost.com/2019/11/06/kris-martin-mike-krzyzewski-niko-medved-csu-rams-duke-blue-devils-basketball-2019-preview/)

Never hurts to give Duke some bulletin board material.

- Chillin

[Billy Dat]

Who do we think the starters will be....Tre, Carey, Hurt, Cassius, AOC?

[DukieInBrasil]

Who do we think the starters will be...Tre, Carey, Hurt, Cassius, AOC?

i don't dislike that line-up, but it seems that K likes strong defense to start games, so i'm not sure AOC bumps J-Gold out. Doesn't mean that AOC won't play more minutes than J-Gold, just like how the Kansas game played out.

[Wahoo2000]

To be fair, you’d *probably* also take Duke +23 if you could get it. :p

Oh, you could get it, you'd just have to put up about 10k to win a dollar.

[ShaneRyan]

Don't poke the bear, Kris. Don't poke the bear. (https://www.denverpost.com/2019/11/06/kris-martin-mike-krzyzewski-niko-medved-csu-rams-duke-blue-devils-basketball-2019-preview/)

Never hurts to give Duke some bulletin board material.

- Chillin

That is one cold play.

[sagegrouse]

Who do we think the starters will be...Tre, Carey, Hurt, Cassius, AOC?

I'm fine with that starting lineup, as long as Jack White gets 25 minutes during the game.

[kcduke75]

I am a spectrum legacy TWC customer and they refuse ACCN for us holders-on. They want me to switch to Spectrum. Not gonna happen.

So what's the best (and cost-effective) way to stream it?

At a bar tonight and I saw a K interview, Jonesin I tell ya.

Gotta to see tomorrow night's game

[ChillinDuke]

I am a spectrum legacy TWC customer and they refuse ACCN for us holders-on. They want me to switch to Spectrum. Not gonna happen.

So what's the best (and cost-effective) way to stream it?

At a bar tonight and I saw a K interview, Jonesin I tell ya.

Gotta to see tomorrow night's game

Do you have any way whatsoever to stream off the ESPN app? You'll need to log-in through a TV provider. Maybe TWC doesn't work, but do you have a friend or relative with a service that will work? Spectrum, Verizon FiOS, Comcast, etc? If you can get a log-in for the ESPN app you can stream it there.

If not, there are a whole host of subscription services you could pay for (YouTube TV, e.g.) that will stream it but you'll have to pay for it. Unless you can get a free trial (YouTube TV I think is running 2 weeks free).

If you don't like either of those options, I'm sure there are advanced internet hacks you could do that may or may not be legal. But I'm not advanced enough to help you with those.

I'm not one of those people up in arms over the TWC/ACCN debacle. I have Spectrum and everything works like a charm for me. I even have a Google Chromecast and can cast the games right from my phone to my TV. If you are particularly pissed off at TWC for phasing out their service to Spectrum, why don't you really stick it to them and just get YouTube TV? It's something like $50 a month, so you're likely saving money AND you get to watch Duke games AND you are pointing a particular finger at TWC. Just sayin'.

- Chillin

[kcduke75]

If not, there are a whole host of subscription services you could pay for (YouTube TV, e.g.) that will stream it but you'll have to pay for it. Unless you can get a free trial (YouTube TV I think is running 2 weeks free).

Thanks for your thoughts.

I am happy with my "record 6 things at once whole house DVR" on TWC legacy. Spectrum has nothing like that.

I am looking for a good subscription service that includes ACCN and not necessarily much more.

[cato]

I am a spectrum legacy TWC customer and they refuse ACCN for us holders-on. They want me to switch to Spectrum. Not gonna happen.

So what's the best (and cost-effective) way to stream it?

At a bar tonight and I saw a K interview, Jonesin I tell ya.

Gotta to see tomorrow night's game

I could not find a cost effective work around. The only options I could find were adding a paid streaming service (e.g., YouTube), which is pricey.

[Troublemaker]

Who do we think the starters will be...Tre, Carey, Hurt, Cassius, AOC?

I would guess same starters as before. JGold isn't long for starting, but we'll make the change after a loss or a bad game relative to competition.

Could it be AOC eventually as a starter? Maybe. He'll need to back up the KU game with more decent defensive performances, and let's hope he starts shooting well this season, too.

[Saratoga2]

Who do we think the starters will be...Tre, Carey, Hurt, Cassius, AOC?Ratther than ask who will start, I would ask who will get thee most minutes.

Tre
Cassius
Jack
Matthew
Vernon

Big men tend to get a few less.

The other likely players to see significant minutes are AOC, Jordan, Javin and Wendell and I expect Joey to become a part of the players with significant minutes and will believe that until coaqch K makes a comment that indicate4s he is in the dog house. Could have been illness or missing academic classes or something of the like. A strong 6'7" athletic kid who can shoot is too valuable not to play.

[budwom]

Ratther than ask who will start, I would ask who will get thee most minutes.

Tre
Cassius
Jack
Matthew
Vernon

Big men tend to get a few less.

The other likely players to see significant minutes are AOC, Jordan, Javin and Wendell and I expect Joey to become a part of the players with significant minutes and will believe that until coaqch K makes a comment that indicate4s he is in the dog house. Could have been illness or missing academic classes or something of the like. A strong 6'7" athletic kid who can shoot is too valuable not to play.

I have no info on why Baker didn't play, but prime suspect for me is the issue of defense.

[David Bunkley]

While I know this team's current strength revolves around playing good-to-great defense and turning teams over in hopes of getting easy transition buckets, I really hope to see this team run some moderately effective half-court offense tonight. I think offense will be a work-in-progress all season, but games like this should be a good opportunity to build some confidence in the system and each other.

#GODUKE

[Troublemaker]

Digging into CSU a bit more, I see a pathway to an uncomfortably close game if Duke doesn't shoot well. CSU last year (and coach Niko Medved's history at other stops) has all the hallmarks of a pack-it-in scheme. They give up tons of 3-pt attempts, don't foul much, don't force turnovers, and are pretty good on the defensive boards. Their center Carvacho was the third-best defensive rebounder in the country last season, so we might not get the offensive boards we would usually expect against such a small team. Additionally, CSU was 30th in the country last season in percentage of possessions in transition, so they will absolutely push the ball off Carvacho's rebounds. If Duke's not shooting well, can we get the ball inside? As a program, we're pretty bad at entry passes (imo), which reared its head a bit against Kansas, and CSU will be crowding the lane... Essentially, if Duke doesn't shoot well to extend the defense, if we're struggling to make entry passes into a crowded lane, if we're not offensive rebounding at a high level, and if CSU is pushing the ball down our throats after defensive rebounds and turnovers, then we're most of the way towards a shocking upset.

On the other side of the court, CSU's offense will in some ways provide an opposite challenge to Kansas, who played caveman basketball. It starts with CSU putting 4 shooters on the court, so we will see Vernon and Javin play 1-on-1 post defense against Carvacho as opposed to all the double teams against Kansas; let's see how that goes. Remember, if Duke is eventually forced to double-team Carvacho, doubling off a 3-pt shooter is very different from doubling off a non-shooting big. Finally, with multiple small guards in the rotation, they should do okay handling the pressure and driving the pressure at times. When CSU drives, can we help without giving up tons of open 3-pt attempts? Essentially, if Carvacho is scoring 1-on-1 in the post and drives are additionally resulting in open 3-pt shots, those are the final pieces to the upset puzzle.

Now, I don't expect all the "ifs" in this post to fall in CSU's favor, of course. But if a shocking upset occurs, what would it look like? I think it looks like the above.

[Edouble]

Wouldn’t be surprised to have a letdown game. Remember that last season after the Kentucky thumping we played Army at home, a terrible team, and the lead was single digits several minutes into the second half. With that said, the final margin will likely be 20+, but being able to come right back and play hard after an emotionally draining game is part of what the freshmen will have to learn.


I don't see much of a letdown possibility here after that mess of a game against Kansas. Shoot, almost all of our players probably feel like they should've played better and will be itching to put a good offensive performance on the board.


Agree with UCake that there is a strong possibility for a letdown game tonight with this young team, whether that's from not being able to bounce back quickly after the emotional trip to NYC (and it wasn't just a game, it was like a four day trip), a false feeling of invincibility, the emotion of playing in Cameron Indoor for the first time, et al



I would guess same starters as before. JGold isn't long for starting, but we'll make the change after a loss or a bad game relative to competition.

Could it be AOC eventually as a starter? Maybe. He'll need to back up the KU game with more decent defensive performances, and let's hope he starts shooting well this season, too.


He also may need to cut his hair again.

[Neals384]

Don't poke the bear, Kris. Don't poke the bear. (https://www.denverpost.com/2019/11/06/kris-martin-mike-krzyzewski-niko-medved-csu-rams-duke-blue-devils-basketball-2019-preview/)

Never hurts to give Duke some bulletin board material.

- Chillin

"Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski’s current squad is younger than the one that hosted and roasted CSU eight years earlier, with six freshmen at its core."

um, yeah, including two redshirting freshmen.

[ChillinDuke]

Digging into CSU a bit more, I see a pathway to an uncomfortably close game if Duke doesn't shoot well. CSU last year (and coach Niko Medved's history at other stops) has all the hallmarks of a pack-it-in scheme. They give up tons of 3-pt attempts, don't foul much, don't force turnovers, and are pretty good on the defensive boards. Their center Carvacho was the third-best defensive rebounder in the country last season, so we might not get the offensive boards we would usually expect against such a small team. Additionally, CSU was 30th in the country last season in percentage of possessions in transition, so they will absolutely push the ball off Carvacho's rebounds. If Duke's not shooting well, can we get the ball inside? As a program, we're pretty bad at entry passes (imo), which reared its head a bit against Kansas, and CSU will be crowding the lane... Essentially, if Duke doesn't shoot well to extend the defense, if we're struggling to make entry passes into a crowded lane, if we're not offensive rebounding at a high level, and if CSU is pushing the ball down our throats after defensive rebounds and turnovers, then we're most of the way towards a shocking upset.

On the other side of the court, CSU's offense will in some ways provide an opposite challenge to Kansas, who played caveman basketball. It starts with CSU putting 4 shooters on the court, so we will see Vernon and Javin play 1-on-1 post defense against Carvacho as opposed to all the double teams against Kansas; let's see how that goes. Remember, if Duke is eventually forced to double-team Carvacho, doubling off a 3-pt shooter is very different from doubling off a non-shooting big. Finally, with multiple small guards in the rotation, they should do okay handling the pressure and driving the pressure at times. When CSU drives, can we help without giving up tons of open 3-pt attempts? Essentially, if Carvacho is scoring 1-on-1 in the post and drives are additionally resulting in open 3-pt shots, those are the final pieces to the upset puzzle.

Now, I don't expect all the "ifs" in this post to fall in CSU's favor, of course. But if a shocking upset occurs, what would it look like? I think it looks like the above.

I like this post for its "what would an upset take?" perspective. I hadn't thought about it that way.

But I do question the assertion that they put "4 shooters on the court". That's generous. They put 4 guards/wings on the court surrounding Macho Carvacho, but I'm not sold that they're particularly adept shooters. Thistlewood (the biggest of the 4 players) is fairly solid at 38.7% on 137 attempts last season. But CSU lost JD Paige and Anthony Masinton-Bonner who combined for 106 out of 267 for 39.7% on 3s. Those two were solid shooters. They also had Lorenzo Jenkins who was over 40% from deep but only played in 11 games so shot ~40 attempts.

It's unclear that the remaining cast of characters are good shooters outside of Thistlewood. Martin was 33% last year. Moore was 32% last year. Both shot over 100 attempts. Hyron Edwards shot less but with good reason as he was 29%. Maybe the freshman Stevens is good? He was 1-3 in his first game. Their tempo was 204th last year, so pushing it on fast breaks doesn't seem particularly consistent to their gameplan, although perhaps possible. They also didn't assist very much at 14 per game and don't steal very much at 6 per game (both last year), so I'm not seeing a team that disrupts, passes ahead, and finishes.

I take the point though that they play 4-out and will generally shoot 3s (~23 per game last year). That's fair and true. But they lost their 3 best bombers, by 3P%. It's unclear if they'll be able to replicate that sort of production, and if anything the objective stats point to a fall off. So I'm not really concerned. But your points are all helpful to frame the "bid-ask" spread for those trying to box their expectations for tonight.

- Chillin

[Music man55]

Hello DBR posters. This is my first post on the DBR forum. As a life long blue devil fan, I've always enjoyed reading the posts from you folks.Excited about our team this year and looking forward to being a part of these discussions about the season. Hopefully tonight's game against CSU will be a little easier than Kansas. Maybe a few threes from Tre, some improvement from Wendell and some minutes for Baker tonight. Go Duke.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Hello DBR posters. This is my first post on the DBR forum. As a life long blue devil fan, I've always enjoyed reading the posts from you folks.Excited about our team this year and looking forward to being a part of these discussions about the season. Hopefully tonight's game against CSU will be a little easier than Kansas. Maybe a few threes from Tre, some improvement from Wendell and some minutes for Baker tonight. Go Duke.

Welcome, brother! I echo your hopes.

[duke79]

Do you have any way whatsoever to stream off the ESPN app? You'll need to log-in through a TV provider. Maybe TWC doesn't work, but do you have a friend or relative with a service that will work? Spectrum, Verizon FiOS, Comcast, etc? If you can get a log-in for the ESPN app you can stream it there.

If not, there are a whole host of subscription services you could pay for (YouTube TV, e.g.) that will stream it but you'll have to pay for it. Unless you can get a free trial (YouTube TV I think is running 2 weeks free).

If you don't like either of those options, I'm sure there are advanced internet hacks you could do that may or may not be legal. But I'm not advanced enough to help you with those.

I'm not one of those people up in arms over the TWC/ACCN debacle. I have Spectrum and everything works like a charm for me. I even have a Google Chromecast and can cast the games right from my phone to my TV. If you are particularly pissed off at TWC for phasing out their service to Spectrum, why don't you really stick it to them and just get YouTube TV? It's something like $50 a month, so you're likely saving money AND you get to watch Duke games AND you are pointing a particular finger at TWC. Just sayin'.

- Chillin

Exactly what my wife and I did. Although we had DISH and not TWC (but pretty much the same overpriced and terrible service provider). As soon as our small, rural town got wired with fiber optic cable, we cancelled DISH and went to the YouTube TV streaming service. It is $49.99 per month (was $40.00 per month initially). YouTube TV does include the ACCN and, so far, all of the Duke BB games (and Duke FB games) have been covered on ACCN or one of the other provided channels.

[English]

Digging into CSU a bit more, I see a pathway to an uncomfortably close game if Duke doesn't shoot well. CSU last year (and coach Niko Medved's history at other stops) has all the hallmarks of a pack-it-in scheme. They give up tons of 3-pt attempts, don't foul much, don't force turnovers, and are pretty good on the defensive boards. Their center Carvacho was the third-best defensive rebounder in the country last season, so we might not get the offensive boards we would usually expect against such a small team. Additionally, CSU was 30th in the country last season in percentage of possessions in transition, so they will absolutely push the ball off Carvacho's rebounds. If Duke's not shooting well, can we get the ball inside? As a program, we're pretty bad at entry passes (imo), which reared its head a bit against Kansas, and CSU will be crowding the lane... Essentially, if Duke doesn't shoot well to extend the defense, if we're struggling to make entry passes into a crowded lane, if we're not offensive rebounding at a high level, and if CSU is pushing the ball down our throats after defensive rebounds and turnovers, then we're most of the way towards a shocking upset.

On the other side of the court, CSU's offense will in some ways provide an opposite challenge to Kansas, who played caveman basketball. It starts with CSU putting 4 shooters on the court, so we will see Vernon and Javin play 1-on-1 post defense against Carvacho as opposed to all the double teams against Kansas; let's see how that goes. Remember, if Duke is eventually forced to double-team Carvacho, doubling off a 3-pt shooter is very different from doubling off a non-shooting big. Finally, with multiple small guards in the rotation, they should do okay handling the pressure and driving the pressure at times. When CSU drives, can we help without giving up tons of open 3-pt attempts? Essentially, if Carvacho is scoring 1-on-1 in the post and drives are additionally resulting in open 3-pt shots, those are the final pieces to the upset puzzle.

Now, I don't expect all the "ifs" in this post to fall in CSU's favor, of course. But if a shocking upset occurs, what would it look like? I think it looks like the above.

Chillin already mentioned it, but the team you're describing cannot possibly be CSU, right? A team that went 12-20 last year and then lost pieces? I respect your approach of tempering expectations and describing a doomsday scenario that would have our home court non-conference winning streak end, but we don't play that team tonight. I hope we don't play the team you're describing at any point this season.

Yes, you don't expect all the "ifs" to come true, and here's hoping none of them do. I suspect that the scouting report is out on Duke and it involves lots of "make them shoot perimeter shots." That said, speaking only for myself, I hope "let me describe how a better team playing our opponent's style of play would beat us" doesn't become a regular pregame post. It's a downer (probably because I recognize this team has some real weaknesses right now).

[Troublemaker]

Agree with UCake that there is a strong possibility for a letdown game tonight with this young team, whether that's from not being able to bounce back quickly after the emotional trip to NYC (and it wasn't just a game, it was like a four day trip), a false feeling of invincibility, the emotion of playing in Cameron Indoor for the first time, et al

I just don't know how many of our guys are really satisfied with their play so far this season. Maybe one or two of them. But I can think of lots of guys who, either because they've got to put better stuff on film for NBA scouts or because they don't like their current place in the rotation or their play against Kansas, are at least somewhat unsatisfied and hungry to do better. As a proud Degenerate, I am always looking for these letdown angles but I don't sense it here. Now, we could struggle tonight, but I think the struggles will have basketball reasons behind them (which I've hypothesized about in this thread), not mindset reasons. Just my two cents -- as always, I could be wrong.


I like this post for its "what would an upset take?" perspective. I hadn't thought about it that way.

But I do question the assertion that they put "4 shooters on the court". That's generous. They put 4 guards/wings on the court surrounding Macho Carvacho, but I'm not sold that they're particularly adept shooters. Thistlewood (the biggest of the 4 players) is fairly solid at 38.7% on 137 attempts last season. But CSU lost JD Paige and Anthony Masinton-Bonner who combined for 106 out of 267 for 39.7% on 3s. Those two were solid shooters. They also had Lorenzo Jenkins who was over 40% from deep but only played in 11 games so shot ~40 attempts.

It's unclear that the remaining cast of characters are good shooters outside of Thistlewood. Martin was 33% last year. Moore was 32% last year. Both shot over 100 attempts. Hyron Edwards shot less but with good reason as he was 29%. Maybe the freshman Stevens is good? He was 1-3 in his first game. Their tempo was 204th last year, so pushing it on fast breaks doesn't seem particularly consistent to their gameplan, although perhaps possible. They also didn't assist very much at 14 per game and don't steal very much at 6 per game (both last year), so I'm not seeing a team that disrupts, passes ahead, and finishes.

I take the point though that they play 4-out and will generally shoot 3s (~23 per game last year). That's fair and true. But they lost their 3 best bombers, by 3P%. It's unclear if they'll be able to replicate that sort of production, and if anything the objective stats point to a fall off. So I'm not really concerned. But your points are all helpful to frame the "bid-ask" spread for those trying to box their expectations for tonight.

Good and fair points. We could maybe afford to help off shooters more than my post suggested, although I suppose the anatomy of most shocking upsets will include better-than-expected 3-pt shooting. I do think their guards will be able to handle the pressure and attack it with drives, so help-and-recover will be key. Initially, hopefully it's not a layup line for Martin, Stevens, Edwards, et al, and then hopefully we can give good closeouts on kicks.

Re: pace, it's best to separate it out between offensive and defensive time of possession (a kenpom subscriber feature) and also % of possessions in transition (a Synergy subscriber feature). Some of these extreme pack-it-in teams have misleading overall pace stats because opponents spend so much time on offense against them trying to crack the pack-it-in scheme. Trust me, CSU is going to push in transition :-). Not UNC-like but more than the average team for sure.

[Neals384]

Hello DBR posters. This is my first post on the DBR forum. As a life long blue devil fan, I've always enjoyed reading the posts from you folks.Excited about our team this year and looking forward to being a part of these discussions about the season. Hopefully tonight's game against CSU will be a little easier than Kansas. Maybe a few threes from Tre, some improvement from Wendell and some minutes for Baker tonight. Go Duke.

Welcome MusicMan! Happy to have you posting and not just lurking!

[clutch299]

I don't see much of a letdown possibility here after that mess of a game against Kansas. Shoot, almost all of our players probably feel like they should've played better and will be itching to put a good offensive performance on the board. (i.e. It's a very different situation than coming off the blowout of Kentucky last season.) It's certainly possible for Duke to not play well, but I think it would be because of random variance and/or us not being that good. Or even CSU being better than expected. CSU is well-coached and has a very good big man that we can't double-team because they put 4 shooters on the floor. They have multiple guards that can handle.

Duke fan from Colorado here. You guys are way too worried about csu. I am a CU alum and lifelong fan of both CU and Duke, so tonight will be a fun night for me. I get to watch one of my favorite basketball teams destroy one of my least favorite teams.

Most of the previews have mentioned it, but really all you have to look out for is Niko Carvacho. He's a lumbering lug of a big man that somehow actually has some post moves. He will be a good tune up for Vernon Carey, certainly not nearly as fluid as Azuibuke or anyone else in the ACC, but he will try and score on Carey.

Csu wins by grinding on defense and rebounding. They're very sound on the glass and are physically tough on the interior, but they're Mountain West Conference tough.

They will jack up a bunch of threes and could get hot and make things interesting for a bit, but Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire should absolutely destroy csu's backcourt.

Go Buffs and Go Devils

[clutch299]

Duke fan from Colorado here. You guys are way too worried about csu. I am a CU alum and lifelong fan of both CU and Duke, so tonight will be a fun night for me. I get to watch one of my favorite basketball teams destroy one of my least favorite teams.

Most of the previews have mentioned it, but really all you have to look out for is Niko Carvacho. He's a lumbering lug of a big man that somehow actually has some post moves. He will be a good tune up for Vernon Carey, certainly not nearly as fluid as Azuibuke or anyone else in the ACC, but he will try and score on Carey.

Csu wins by grinding on defense and rebounding. They're very sound on the glass and are physically tough on the interior, but they're Mountain West Conference tough.

They will jack up a bunch of threes and could get hot and make things interesting for a bit, but Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire should absolutely destroy csu's backcourt.

Go Buffs and Go Devils

Also, if you want to cheer for a fun team in the Pac 12 this year, jump on my Buffs bandwagon. You can cheer for our point guard, McKinley Wright, who is friends with Tre Jones as they both played HS ball in Minnesota

[Wahoo2000]

Duke fan from Colorado here. You guys are way too worried about csu. I am a CU alum and lifelong fan of both CU and Duke, so tonight will be a fun night for me. I get to watch one of my favorite basketball teams destroy one of my least favorite teams.

Most of the previews have mentioned it, but really all you have to look out for is Niko Carvacho. He's a lumbering lug of a big man that somehow actually has some post moves. He will be a good tune up for Vernon Carey, certainly not nearly as fluid as Azuibuke or anyone else in the ACC, but he will try and score on Carey.

Csu wins by grinding on defense and rebounding. They're very sound on the glass and are physically tough on the interior, but they're Mountain West Conference tough.

They will jack up a bunch of threes and could get hot and make things interesting for a bit, but Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire should absolutely destroy csu's backcourt.

Go Buffs and Go Devils

Lots of great adjectives for Azubuike. "Fluid" definitely is not one of them. That guy must be the least agile/coordinated/smooth big I've seen. Powerful and explosive? Check. Fluid? Nah....

[ChillinDuke]

<snip>

Good and fair points. We could maybe afford to help off shooters more than my post suggested, although I suppose the anatomy of most shocking upsets will include better-than-expected 3-pt shooting. I do think their guards will be able to handle the pressure and attack it with drives, so help-and-recover will be key. Initially, hopefully it's not a layup line for Martin, Stevens, Edwards, et al, and then hopefully we can give good closeouts on kicks.

If CSU shoots 30 three pointers (30% more than they shot on average last season) and hit 45% of them (9% better than they converted last season with better shooters) AND Carvacho scores 20 (25% above his season average last year this time against top-tier competition) AND the team scores 20 points elsewhere, CSU will have scored 80 points. Having just scored 68 points against #3 Kansas in the first game of the year, if Duke can't outscore 80 points against CSU I'll be pretty disappointed.


Re: pace, it's best to separate it out between offensive and defensive time of possession (a kenpom subscriber feature) and also % of possessions in transition (a Synergy subscriber feature). Some of these extreme pack-it-in teams have misleading overall pace stats because opponents spend so much time on offense against them trying to crack the pack-it-in scheme. Trust me, CSU is going to push in transition :-). Not UNC-like but more than the average team for sure.

As a KenPom subscriber, I had no idea this was offered. And I will definitely look up Synergy as well. DBR: helping degenerates rejoice since...well...a few years ago.

- Chillin

[DukeFanSince1990]

How is DeLaurier? He took a hard bump Tuesday and was wondering if he may sit this one out.

[Troublemaker]

Chillin already mentioned it, but the team you're describing cannot possibly be CSU, right? A team that went 12-20 last year and then lost pieces? I respect your approach of tempering expectations and describing a doomsday scenario that would have our home court non-conference winning streak end, but we don't play that team tonight. I hope we don't play the team you're describing at any point this season.

Yes, you don't expect all the "ifs" to come true, and here's hoping none of them do. I suspect that the scouting report is out on Duke and it involves lots of "make them shoot perimeter shots." That said, speaking only for myself, I hope "let me describe how a better team playing our opponent's style of play would beat us" doesn't become a regular pregame post. It's a downer (probably because I recognize this team has some real weaknesses right now).

I think I mostly stuck to factual observations of CSU's statistical profile, but it was incomplete work because I didn't cover their weaknesses. I just placed a CSU +24 wager in the Degenerates league just to show that I am somewhat serious but obviously I'm not picking an outright (historical & shocking) upset because, as mentioned, all the "ifs" would have to go their way.


Duke fan from Colorado here. You guys are way too worried about csu. I am a CU alum and lifelong fan of both CU and Duke, so tonight will be a fun night for me. I get to watch one of my favorite basketball teams destroy one of my least favorite teams.

Most of the previews have mentioned it, but really all you have to look out for is Niko Carvacho. He's a lumbering lug of a big man that somehow actually has some post moves. He will be a good tune up for Vernon Carey, certainly not nearly as fluid as Azuibuke or anyone else in the ACC, but he will try and score on Carey.

Csu wins by grinding on defense and rebounding. They're very sound on the glass and are physically tough on the interior, but they're Mountain West Conference tough.

I dunno about that -- at least last season, they were a better offensive team than defensive team (#112 on O and #261 on D, according to kenpom).



They will jack up a bunch of threes and could get hot and make things interesting for a bit, but Tre Jones and Jordan Goldwire should absolutely destroy csu's backcourt.

This will be key. The one major piece of guesswork I did was to think that CSU's bevy of guards will be able to handle and attack Duke's pressure. If I'm wrong about that, then I move down the standings in Degenerates because that 24 is not safe.


If CSU shoots 30 three pointers (30% more than they shot on average last season) and hit 45% of them (9% better than they converted last season with better shooters) AND Carvacho scores 20 (25% above his season average last year this time against top-tier competition) AND the team scores 20 points elsewhere, CSU will have scored 80 points. Having just scored 68 points against #3 Kansas in the first game of the year, if Duke can't outscore 80 points against CSU I'll be pretty disappointed.

You're forgetting the 30 points from all the drives for layups and dropoffs to Carvacho, too ;-)

[DevilYouKnow]

I had to turn down a pair of tickets, so that I could rehearse for a musical.

Do I turn in my Duke diploma first, or my testicals?

[English]

I think I mostly stuck to factual observations of CSU's statistical profile, but it was incomplete work because I didn't cover their weaknesses. I just placed a CSU +24 wager in the Degenerates league just to show that I am somewhat serious but obviously I'm not picking an outright (historical & shocking) upset because, as mentioned, all the "ifs" would have to go their way.

A big part of the upset cocktail rests upon them shooting so well on the perimeter with their shooters that we cannot help on their best player, lest they light the CIS nets on fire. The CSU team last season shot worse from 3pt than ours. And we ranked 329th in the country. I'd assume that there will be plenty of help for Vernon, Javin, and maybe Jack on the Macho Man.

[wavedukefan70s]

Go Duke !gotta miss this one .sons in playoffs.

[TeacherTom]

It would be great to see Joey get in tonight and knock down multiple three’s.

[JayZee]

It would be great to see Joey get in tonight and knock down multiple three’s.

I love to see Joey get some burn for a bunch of reasons. One of the reasons is NOT that he's the great hope of the year. Now, if he doesn't play at all, then it will be clear that something (injury, illness, dog house, pending transfer) is up - none of which would be ideal. I am a little worried given that he was further down the bench than J-Rob (which seems to mean something) and seemed to be less enthusiastic than some of the other players in the Kansas game. Maybe he was sick. Maybe he was told that he wouldn't play and he was a bit bummed. Still, rooting for the guy.

[Newton_14]

Ratther than ask who will start, I would ask who will get thee most minutes.

Tre
Cassius
Jack
Matthew
Vernon

Big men tend to get a few less.

The other likely players to see significant minutes are AOC, Jordan, Javin and Wendell and I expect Joey to become a part of the players with significant minutes and will believe that until coaqch K makes a comment that indicate4s he is in the dog house. Could have been illness or missing academic classes or something of the like. A strong 6'7" athletic kid who can shoot is too valuable not to play.

Jack is playing exclusively at the Power Forward spot. K is using Vernon/Hurt/Javin/Jack in the 4/5 slots. At least two of them were in the game at all times against Kansas, but we didn't see 3 of the 4 of those guys on the floor together a single time. Those 5 guys you listed will all get a lot of minutes though. But AOC/Moore will likely get a lot of minutes as well. AOC exclusively at the 3(Wing) position, with Moore splitting his minutes between 2G/Wing/PG, depending on who is in the game with him.

[Troublemaker]

A big part of the upset cocktail rests upon them shooting so well on the perimeter with their shooters that we cannot help on their best player, lest they light the CIS nets on fire. The CSU team last season shot worse from 3pt than ours. And we ranked 329th in the country. I'd assume that there will be plenty of help for Vernon, Javin, and maybe Jack on the Macho Man.

No, CSU shot 35.2% from three last season (good for 125th in the country, kenpom). To be clear, I think they're a good shooting team, not a great one.

I definitely think we should try to defend Carvacho 1-on-1 and see how it goes before leaving shooters.

[English]

No, CSU shot 35.2% from three last season (good for 125th in the country, kenpom). To be clear, I think they're a good shooting team, not a great one.

I definitely think we should try to defend Carvacho 1-on-1 and see how it goes before leaving shooters.

You're right, my apologies--I was looking at this year's stats (which aren't particularly meaningful yet). Given your clarification (and my carelessness), I think you and I agree here. Although, I'm taking Duke laying the points given my confidence in our that our end-of-the-bench guys finishing the game.

[-jk]

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[jwillfan]

At the game watching warmups. Tre *draining* 3s. At one point hit 7 straight from the corner, missed one then promptly hit another. Looked smooth!

[nmduke2001]

20 minutes left in the soccer game currently airing on the ACC Network. Duke games starts in 5. We have a problem.

[slower]

Is it buffering for the rest of you?

[dukebluesincebirth]

Why am I watching cheaters soccer on ACCN??

[WiJoe]

stupid *&^%$#@ !

[Tripping William]

Why am I watching cheaters soccer on ACCN??

Same question

[DU82]

Still four minutes on the countdown in Cameron. Tip-off closer to 7:15.

[BlueDevilTommy]

The announcers said the game will be shown on ESPN News at 7:14 presumably until the soccer game is over.

[InSpades]

I'm sure all 5 people who tuned in to watch this would understand if we cut to the Duke Men's basketball game!

[4Gen]

The announcers said the game will be shown on ESPN News at 7:14 presumably until the soccer game is over.

Anybody know the spectrum channel in eastern NC?

Sigh

[Tripping William]

The announcers said the game will be shown on ESPN News at 7:14 presumably until the soccer game is over.

So, if you can stand Jalen Rose bloviating for five more minutes, you’re good?

[House G]

They don’t play overtime in soccer, do they? :mad:

[Edouble]

I can't find the ACC Network on PS Vue. Can anyone help me? :(

[slower]

So, if you can stand Jalen Rose bloviating for five more minutes, you’re good?

I'll just mute that POS until 7:14.

[4Gen]

They don’t play overtime in soccer, do they? :mad:

I don't know, but I'm forced to pull for the Cheats to prevent overtime. I disgust myself.

[DukieInKansas]

Why am I watching cheaters soccer on ACCN??

And having to listen to them talk about the championships* they won without mentioning the cheating scandal that included women's soccer players, as I recall.

[WiJoe]

I see the fellas are in their traditional grey duds.

for sh*t's sake.

[4Gen]

Now I fear Miami field hockey may displace Notre Dame football tomorrow.

[rocketeli]

I'm on sling getting some soccer game, and it says Duke game on ESPNews, but its not--just some guys bloviating about football? Anyone else getting the game?

[ndkjr70]

These jerseys are absolutely, unbelievably hideous.

The worst uniforms I’ve seen duke wear since those atrocities in 2013.

[rocketeli]

finally!

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Looks like someone forgot to wash the uniforms.

[ndkjr70]

There are zero circumstances where I would be excited about a Tre Jones transition three.

[4Gen]

The worst uniforms I’ve seen duke wear since those atrocities in 2013.

Getting used to graying white and yellow takes time.

[rocketeli]

dafuq with these uniforms?

[DU82]

Anybody know the spectrum channel in eastern NC?

Sigh

Likely 388. That’s what it is here in Durham, and they try to keep it consistent.

[ndkjr70]

I don’t know how anyone would think “gray, navy and gold. Now that screams duke basketball.”

[BlueDevilTommy]

Game's back on ACC Network

[AGDukesky]

Love the defensive effort

[AGDukesky]

Best play of Moore’s career

[ShaneRyan]

How long was Baker in for? And also, what's the best live boxscore folks use beyond ESPN?

[ndkjr70]

So I’m an architect in Florida and we’ve had an issue finding quality masons. Excited to see Duke is raising a whole new generations of people who seem to expertise in laying bricks.

;)

[WiJoe]

How long was Baker in for? And also, what's the best live boxscore folks use beyond ESPN?

http://duke.sidearmsports.com/sidearmstats/mbball/media

[rsvman]

I hope Jack is ok.

[ShaneRyan]

http://duke.sidearmsports.com/sidearmstats/mbball/media

Beautiful, thanks.

Now, why aren't we finding ways to get Hurt the ball near the post?

[rocketeli]

I feel like a terrible, terrible person, but part of me was thinking after White and DeLaurier collided, "good, maybe now we'll see more of Carey and Hurt."

[rsvman]

Good end to the first half.

Lucky that Javin isn't hurt after that fall.

[Sluggo]

You can watch the game live on YouTube if you have no other choice like me.

[ndkjr70]

I feel like a terrible, terrible person, but part of me was thinking after White and DeLaurier collided, "good, maybe now we'll see more of Carey and Hurt."

You are correct in your observation of yourself.

[ndkjr70]

Current players on the court (who’ve played together for most of this half): Tre Jones, Cassius Stanley, Jack White, AOC, Javin DeLaurier. Combined age: 102.

Without looking it up, what was the last non-garbage time lineup Duke used that was at least 102 combined years old?

[rsvman]

Stanley looking strong again.

[HaveFunExpectToWin]

After that Cassius Stanley dunk, we got OMG kid 😂

9933

[AGDukesky]

This team’s style is very enjoyable

[rocketeli]

You are correct in your observation of yourself.

Mom! I didn't know you had a dbr account.

[ndkjr70]

Mom! I didn't know you had a dbr account.

I’m very certain that your mom would be equally as disappointed that you said you’re excited about a Duke player getting injured.