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View Full Version : MBB: Duke 68, Kansas 66 Post-Game Thread



JBDuke
11-05-2019, 09:17 PM
Put your post-game thoughts here.

Troublemaker
11-05-2019, 09:18 PM
Coach K's like Derek Jeter, guys. Mr. November. Don't doubt it.

6-3 in the Champions Classic now. Guaranteed best record no matter what happens in the MSU-UK game.

fuse
11-05-2019, 09:20 PM
Defense wins championships.

Surprised it was this close, a great game to watch.

The journey this year is clearly how we establish a rhythm and flow on offense.

DukieInKansas
11-05-2019, 09:20 PM
Big sigh of relief here in Jayhawk country.

tfk53
11-05-2019, 09:20 PM
Great defensive effort. Definitely a team win. We have a fun team to watch though shooting may cause occasional heartburn

TheOldBattleship
11-05-2019, 09:21 PM
Fantastic defensive show. Really good fightback after the big deficit early in the second. Thought it might slip away then, but we tightened back up, hit some big shots (Carey's three was, I thought, HUGE), and took it to them defensively the rest of the way. Great win. Plenty of time to fine-tune the offense a bit!

proelitedota
11-05-2019, 09:21 PM
I'm still tallying up the KU TOs. :rolleyes:

Great win tho.

devildeac
11-05-2019, 09:22 PM
If you had told me we shot 37% FG with 33% 3s, 61% FT, outrebounded by 10 and won the game, I'd think you were a lunatic.

SkyBrickey
11-05-2019, 09:22 PM
It was ugly but that’s a good win. Cassius Stanley with a solid game and probably cements a spot in the starting lineup. His lateral quickness on D is something special.

CDu
11-05-2019, 09:22 PM
Not pretty, but ultimately effective. Hopefully the defense will persist and the offense will get better. But regardless, it is always nice to win a hard-fought game against - possibly - a top-5 caliber opponent. I say possibly only because we have little idea how good KU really is.

Big win to get the season started. Was fun to watch some new faces step up to the plate!

scottdude8
11-05-2019, 09:23 PM
Early thoughts (I'll be writing a more in-depth article at some point tomorrow):

—People can complain about Jack White's shot all they want. I could care less. That man makes winning plays that may not show up in the box score. He was the difference defensively down the stretch, and his ability to play both the 3 and the 4 will be big.

—Hurt and Carey should be our primary offensive options this year, but as bigs it's going to take them a bit longer to develop. Despite the poor offensive showing, both of them showed enough flashes that I'm optimistic that our offense will develop.

—Stanley and AOC both stepped up and seized their opportunities. And that's ideal, since they provide different skill sets on the wing. Our best lineup looks like it may involve them, at least early in the season.

—We never notice FTs except for when we miss them, so let's please not overlook that Tre made four CLUTCH FTs in the last minute.

—It was sloppy, but most of Kansas' turnovers were FORCED. That's indicative of how good this defense can be. If we're holding teams to 60-70 points a game, we don't have to be an offensive juggernaut to win. That may be our identity this year, and I'm all for it.

frb
11-05-2019, 09:23 PM
not pretty but we're scrappy and beat a very good and experienced team. I think our ceiling hinges on our ability to convert from 3. we don't need to be great at it. it just can't be a weak point. average is good enough and with the defense and Vernon inside, ACC title and FF within sight.

RaiderDevil
11-05-2019, 09:25 PM
So according to the article on the first page, Coach K just became the winningest coach at any level, but he's not close to several NBA guys. What am I missing?

frb
11-05-2019, 09:26 PM
So according to the article on the first page, Coach K just became the winningest coach at any level, but he's not close to several NBA guys. What am I missing?

probably means any level within collegiate basketball D1-2-3 NAIA JUCO

kAzE
11-05-2019, 09:26 PM
Huge win. Jack white really came through for us. Cassius and Matthew played really well in their first college game, and the defense looked mostly great. Really looking forward to seeing what this team can accomplish this season. GO DUKE!

SkyBrickey
11-05-2019, 09:27 PM
Stanley, Hurt, Carey were 12-26 from the field and 6-10 from 3.

rocketeli
11-05-2019, 09:27 PM
You can't win a game with 28 turnovers against a decent opponent. I wonder if that going to be an issue for Kansas this year. Tre Jones can do every thing extremely well except shoot from outside. White had a good game. We should have someone punch him in the mouth before every shot maybe, as he hit a nice three after taking a hit. Otherwise, he is not a shooter. Nice game from Stanley, after he settled down and he was out on the floor at at least some of the end, some nice moments from Hurt, and DeLaurier helped today, doing good DeLaurier things. Some nice offense from O'Connell. Moore still learning. Carey played well, especially for his first division I game, and even hit two threes. I noticed that his shot is on target, but lacks spin/arc. If he could develop those and get some good bounces...I don't wonder if shooting is going to be an issue this year. That's because it is going to be an issue this year.

ratamero
11-05-2019, 09:28 PM
There is SO MUCH to improve. We were sloppy with the ball, shot terribly, consistently made bad decisions on drives and kick-outs. But other than the few easy backdoors (that were corrected late in the game) and Carey getting caught asleep in some drives, not much to complain about the defense. If we can defend like this consistently, we'll be very good. If we put the offense together, we'll be great.

MCFinARL
11-05-2019, 09:28 PM
So I am going to say when you put 2 football guys on the broadcast team for the champions classic I suppose it's not a surprise they spend the whole break between two amazing basketball games talking about football. Hm.

Kfanarmy
11-05-2019, 09:29 PM
If you had told me we shot 37% FG with 33% 3s, 61% FT, outrebounded by 10 and won the game, I'd think you were a lunatic.

Duke's horrible shooting...was less than 50% FTs until right at the end...was offset by KU turnovers.

Good to see all 5 players contributing on both ends for most of the game!

UrinalCake
11-05-2019, 09:29 PM
Awesome win against a tough, experienced opponent. I was concerned about our offense but did not give enough credit to how good our defense could be. Stanley was impressive, but we got contributions from everyone. Jack White showed the heady play that made him so valuable at times last year, busting up a 3-on-1 break, getting the game clinching steal, and numerous other huge plays.

Thank you edouble and others who called me out when I was wavering on how good this team could be out of the gate. They did look nervous at the start, and they did not shoot well, but they did enough to win. I think we’re going to see a lot of ugly wins this year, but I love what we’ve seen so far.

proelitedota
11-05-2019, 09:30 PM
Looks like our main rotation might be Carey, Hurt, White, Stanley, and Jones.

We played a 9 man rotation today. I don't think even K can shrink that down to 8.

Wahoo2000
11-05-2019, 09:32 PM
Defense wins championships.

Surprised it was this close, a great game to watch.

The journey this year is clearly how we establish a rhythm and flow on offense.


Welcome to the #UVAfanLife, lol.

You guys def looked strong defensively, whether KU committed a lot of unforced errors or not, the shots they DID get off were NOT good ones or easy ones by and large.

I think K was well aware that defense would be the primary driver for your team, especially early in the season, and thus the Goldwire start. I think as the season wears on, and the offense smooths out, you'll see Jordan's minutes fade a bit to more of a situational spot.

I was also interested to see that Baker didn't play at all. Injury? Suspension? If it's neither of those, and he's just going to not really be a part of the plan, I think you have a strong 7 man rotation with Jones/O'Connell/Stanley/Hurt/Carey with DeLaurier and White the main guys off the bench, Moore mixing in FAIRLY consistently, and Goldwire playing spot minutes.

Hurt looks like he has the potential to be the primary offensive weapon, and will be interested to see how dominant Carey can be when he isn't matched up against this type of front line (read: almost never). I think Jones will have to have a better perimeter shot to get where you REALLY want to go (FF/Title contention) but there are a lot of games to play and this is a small sample size so far (so who the heck knows about ANY of my points really, lol).

Way to represent the ACC in the Champs classic! Means no nonconference losses for the league as a whole kicking off the season! ;-)

TheOldBattleship
11-05-2019, 09:33 PM
—People can complain about Jack White's shot all they want. I could care less. That man makes winning plays that may not show up in the box score. He was the difference defensively down the stretch, and his ability to play both the 3 and the 4 will be big.

Never seen a shot that deserved to go in more than that open above-the-break three he took as the trail guy after making a fantastic defensive play. The one that was 2/3s of the way down and just rolled out. Just a violation of the ineffable laws of basketball for that one not to go down for Jack. Fingers crossed that those shots start falling.

scottdude8
11-05-2019, 09:33 PM
Looks like our main rotation might be Carey, Hurt, White, Stanley, and Jones.

We played a 9 man rotation today. I don't think even K can shrink that down to 8.

I think this may be our best lineup, but I wouldn't expect it to start (which is totally fine!). I think JG may continue to start to set the tone, and I think Stanley works well off the bench. I wouldn't be surprised if we start Carey, Hurt, AOC, JG and Jones going forward, even if Stanley and White get more PT than AOC and JG.

I love the varied pieces that this team has. Who plays big minutes will vary based on our opponent and who is hot. I think that's a pretty darn encouraging scenario.

scottdude8
11-05-2019, 09:34 PM
Never seen a shot that deserved to go in more than that open above-the-break three he took as the trail guy after making a fantastic defensive play. The one that was 2/3s of the way down and just rolled out. Just a violation of the ineffable laws of basketball for that one not to go down for Jack. Fingers crossed that those shots start falling.

My dog jumped at my elated scream when that one went in. He earned that.

Jack doesn't need to be a 40% 3 point shooter. If he's a 30-35% shooter he can do enough to stretch the floor and stay out there for his hustle and D. I think that's what we'll see this year.

Troublemaker
11-05-2019, 09:35 PM
Looks like our main rotation might be Carey, Hurt, White, Stanley, and Jones.

We played a 9 man rotation today. I don't think even K can shrink that down to 8.

Of course he could. Still, 8 guys would be good depth.

Looks like those of us who doubted Joey's playing time despite his big exhibition #2 were right to do so, unfortunately. Would love if his shot could crack the rotation.

proelitedota
11-05-2019, 09:38 PM
Looks like those of us who doubted Joey's playing time despite his big exhibition #2 were right to do so, unfortunately. Would love if his shot could crack the rotation.

Joey is obviously not ready for a big game like this. I'll be pikachu shocked if he doesn't see the floor against our next opponent. If he doesn't he is probably leaving...

OldPhiKap
11-05-2019, 09:39 PM
Should not have dropped acid before the tip, the colors of the broadcast screwed with me at randomly intermittently times.

Jack, Javin, and Tre got it done.

jimmymax
11-05-2019, 09:40 PM
I'm imagining the season is being played in reverse. Tonight is the final night with the championship game (#1 vs #2) about to take place. Duke just won the consolation match (#3 vs #4). I'm very happy with this result.

proelitedota
11-05-2019, 09:42 PM
I'm imagining the season is being played in reverse. Tonight is the final night with the championship game (#1 vs #2) about to take place. Duke just won the consolation match (#3 vs #4). I'm very happy with this result.

You're happy with UK possibly taking the ship? :rolleyes:

Shouldn't we be playing the winner of UK / MSU?

WVDUKEFAN
11-05-2019, 09:43 PM
The bookies won this one. Aside from being impressed with them, I am starting the Cassius Stanley fan club. He’s going to be special. My biggest disappointment was no Joey Baker.

jv001
11-05-2019, 09:43 PM
Joey is obviously not ready for a big game like this. I'll be shock if he doesn't see the floor against our next opponent. If he doesn't he is probably leaving...

Why not redshirt him, oh, wait.:cool: GoDuke!

DavidBenAkiva
11-05-2019, 09:44 PM
I love all of you and am so, so happy that we are getting to watch Duke basketball for yet another season.

Also, WENDELL'S FEET WERE SET!

Billy Dat
11-05-2019, 09:45 PM
LOVE beating Kansas after this recent run of losses. Every L we have suffered in this event is at their hands. A little payback is sweet.

Of the 9 who played, many had huge moments from the time we were down 9 in the second.

Of the upperclassmen, I was thrilled that Jack played such a prominent role and that Alex was very much in the mix. Javin played his usual solid game, but Jack and Alex played better than I expected.

Cassius, Vernon and Hurt with very impressive debuts. Cassius was rock solid on e he settled down, Matthew played with a lot of confidence, and while Vernon’s D was a little soft (letting Dotson get all the way to the rim in the final minutes), I loved how Big Vern was being aggressive on offense (although he can drop the running one hander brick from his repetoire).

Tre came up HUGE in the crunch, that jumper with the shooter’s (ha ha ha) touch and the clutch FTs, plus a big board.

Wendell looked like a freshman, and Jordan was just his usual self as opposed to turbo Jordan.

Extremely satisfying win.

SkyBrickey
11-05-2019, 09:46 PM
I really like the way Carey posts up. I think he’s going to be a real force inside and put up a lot of points against most every front line we play this year. Tonight may the toughest he sees all season and he still had a solid game.

TheOldBattleship
11-05-2019, 09:46 PM
One thing about the defensive effort that struck me: the sheer spread of the Kansas turnovers. It wasn't one or two guys throwing the ball around or a certain positional group struggling. It was everybody. No starter had less than 3 TOs. The two primary ballhandlers (Dotson and Agbaji, both potential All Big-12 guy) had 5 each. The bigs turned it over. The wings turned it over. And they turned it over in a gazillion ways. Just a masterclass in defensive pressure.

For those looking for reasons that Joey Baker didn't get minutes, that's my guess as to why. The one big strength of this team is the cohesive peskiness of the defense. I just don't know if K is going to risk compromising that for the shooting that Baker brings. Hopefully Baker will follow O'Connell's lead and improve enough defensively to carve out a role. But my guess is that he just hasn't done enough on that end of the court to earn minutes.

dukelion
11-05-2019, 09:47 PM
The bookies won this one. Aside from being impressed with them, I am starting the Cassius Stanley fan club. He’s going to be special. My biggest disappointment was no Joey Baker.

This

Stanley might end up being the highest drafted player from this team.

SkyBrickey
11-05-2019, 09:52 PM
This

Stanley might end up being the highest drafted player from this team.

He’s obviously a great leaper but his quickness on D is just as impressive. Someone described him as twitchy fast after the last game. It’s true. And fun to watch.

SCMatt33
11-05-2019, 09:54 PM
I’m not sure the last time Duke beat a top 5 team while shooting 38% from the field, but that’s what good d will get you. While there’s certainly some “November basketball” producing those numbers, I think it might be pretty indicative of the types of games we’ll see from Duke all year. You could really see the offense struggle to get good shots off in the half court, and a lot of that shooting performance was about not being able to get good shots rather than missing shots you’d expect to be made at a higher clip. Most teams also won’t have the size Kansas does, though, but they probably also won’t turn it over as much, no matter how good the defense plays.

I think one of the biggest keys for Duke will be finding lineups that can work both offensively and defensively. You could see some really good work from Carey and O’Connell on offense, but the defense suffered when they were in. Carey in particular has a long way to go in recognizing the whole court on d. That’s not even a knock on him as every other freshman who walked in from 2014-2017 had the same problem. The difference is the team isn’t full of offensively minded players and the defense is going to be the more important end of the court night in and night out.

I was very impressed with some of what Stanley was doing tonight and if he can continue to improve, he could be a huge piece to the puzzle.

Tonight’s lesson in why Coach K is Coach K and I’m SCMatt33 on DBR: I was not a fan of bringing Goldwire back in with 1:30 left. Coming in cold, he got blown by on the first possession to let them close to one, but was was definitely the right call to have him in for the last minute after he got that bad possession under his belt as KU got shut down after that save the garbage time buzzer 3

SouthernDukie
11-05-2019, 09:57 PM
Anyone else see Cassius Stanley‘s game and have flashbacks to Ricky Price?

Great opening win, with everyone already mentioning the obvious need for the O to be more cohesive and the D to continue being our strength.

CDu
11-05-2019, 09:58 PM
I think this may be our best lineup, but I wouldn't expect it to start (which is totally fine!). I think JG may continue to start to set the tone, and I think Stanley works well off the bench. I wouldn't be surprised if we start Carey, Hurt, AOC, JG and Jones going forward, even if Stanley and White get more PT than AOC and JG.

I love the varied pieces that this team has. Who plays big minutes will vary based on our opponent and who is hot. I think that's a pretty darn encouraging scenario.

Maybe on the bolded part, although I would say that Goldwire was not effective defensively tonight. And he is a total no factor on offense. So unless he is really making things happen on defense, keeping him out there could prove problematic.

I would also expect Stanley to stay in the starting lineup, as he looked good in that role tonight and provides value on both ends of the floor.

wavedukefan70s
11-05-2019, 09:59 PM
Should not have dropped acid before the tip, the colors of the broadcast screwed with me at randomly intermittently times.

Jack, Javin, and Tre got it done.

I kept thinking of violet beaureguard from willy wonka and the chocolate factory.was waiting for the oompa lumpa's to come get them.

DavidBenAkiva
11-05-2019, 09:59 PM
One thing about the defensive effort that struck me: the sheer spread of the Kansas turnovers. It wasn't one or two guys throwing the ball around or a certain positional group struggling. It was everybody. No starter had less than 3 TOs. The two primary ballhandlers (Dotson and Agbaji, both potential All Big-12 guy) had 5 each. The bigs turned it over. The wings turned it over. And they turned it over in a gazillion ways. Just a masterclass in defensive pressure.

For those looking for reasons that Joey Baker didn't get minutes, that's my guess as to why. The one big strength of this team is the cohesive peskiness of the defense. I just don't know if K is going to risk compromising that for the shooting that Baker brings. Hopefully Baker will follow O'Connell's lead and improve enough defensively to carve out a role. But my guess is that he just hasn't done enough on that end of the court to earn minutes.

Every player for Kansas had at least 1 turnover except Christian Braun, and he had no points, no rebounds, no assists, and 2 fouls.

simplyluvin
11-05-2019, 09:59 PM
We've seen prettier games, but I love this win. Jack was huge with clutch steals and rebound in the last few minutes. Cassius is a fun player to watch, and he kept us in the game in the second half.

I am worried about where we'll get buckets, especially in heated contests, but if we play D like this, we'll go far. Gonna date myself here, but we might be like the 1987 team which was a defensive stalwart with Amaker the lone senior. That team was offensively-challenged, but the D was memorable.

SouthernDukie
11-05-2019, 10:01 PM
Maybe on the bolder part, although I I would say that Goldwire was not effective defensively tonight. And he is a total no factor on offense. So unless he is really making things happen on defense, keeping him out there could prove problematic.

Agreed. I was shocked when a Goldwire got burned not once, but twice on backdoors.

TheOldBattleship
11-05-2019, 10:03 PM
Maybe on the bolder part, although I I would say that Goldwire was not effective defensively tonight. And he is a total no factor on offense. So unless he is really making things happen on defense, keeping him out there could prove problematic.

I would also expect Stanley to stay in the starting lineup, as he looked good in that role tonight and provides value on both ends of the floor.

I thought he was pretty good in just contributing to the general defensive pressure (backdoors aside, and a couple of those are always going to happen with the pressure), even if he wasn't the one coming up with the steals. That said, if AOC is going to be reasonably effective defensively (as he definitely was tonight), I'd be surprised if he doesn't take Goldwire's starting job, moving Goldwire into a more natural spot as the primary backup point who can also play beside Jones. He just offers so much more variety offensively, and the fact that he's bigger (or longer, at least) makes for some interesting matchup options.

And agreed: I'd be shocked if we see less of Stanley going forward. If anything, I'd guess that his role increases as the year goes on (I'm intrigued to see him being a bit more aggressive as a off-the-dribble creator on offense).

Troublemaker
11-05-2019, 10:07 PM
While there’s certainly some “November basketball” producing those numbers,

It was mostly that, frankly. I'm celebrating the win as much as anyone and with alcohol, but I'm not one iota more optimistic about this team in March/April than I was before. (Keeping in mind that I was more optimistic about beating KU than most... for those that thought we would get rocked tonight, you probably *should* adjust expectations upwards).

Not even our Round of 64 opponent will turn it over 28 times like first-game-of-the-season Kansas did tonight. Our ball pressure and overall defensive ability will get us to overachieve early in the season against opponents that aren't cohesive yet.

Still, great win, and I'm happy. This win will raise us a seed line in March.

jv001
11-05-2019, 10:07 PM
I thought he was pretty good in just contributing to the general defensive pressure (backdoors aside, and a couple of those are always going to happen with the pressure), even if he wasn't the one coming up with the steals. That said, if AOC is going to be reasonably effective defensively (as he definitely was tonight), I'd be surprised if he doesn't take Goldwire's starting job, moving Goldwire into a more natural spot as the primary backup point who can also play beside Jones. He just offers so much more variety offensively, and the fact that he's bigger (or longer, at least) makes for some interesting matchup options.

And agreed: I'd be shocked if we see less of Stanley going forward. If anything, I'd guess that his role increases as the year goes on (I'm intrigued to see him being a bit more aggressive as a off-the-dribble creator on offense).

Cassius has a good looking jumper and he get's up high on it. That's going to be hard to block. I was most impressed with his play tonight. On the negative side, I hope Javin get's stronger finishing at the rim. GoDuke!

subzero02
11-05-2019, 10:09 PM
JACK FREAKING WHITE... that is all

dukelion
11-05-2019, 10:10 PM
Anyone else see Cassius Stanley‘s game and have flashbacks to Ricky Price?

Great opening win, with everyone already mentioning the obvious need for the O to be more cohesive and the D to continue being our strength.

Sort of has some Cory Magette in his game.

CoachJ10
11-05-2019, 10:14 PM
The bookies won this one. Aside from being impressed with them, I am starting the Cassius Stanley fan club. He’s going to be special. My biggest disappointment was no Joey Baker.

I’m with you on this...I think he will be our best perimeter scorer at this rate. Obviously his athleticism is ridic, but he also has a good handle and a soft touch.

With the myriad of lineup possibilities we will have this season...it wouldn't surprise me to see K run more sets and plays than we’ve ran the past couple years.

The defense will be really good when Vernon gets a little more experience under his belt.

Tre needed that jumper to fall...what a huge shot for us. The clutch fts were ... Tyus-like...

Neals384
11-05-2019, 10:15 PM
Joey is obviously not ready for a big game like this. I'll be pikachu shocked if he doesn't see the floor against our next opponent. If he doesn't he is probably leaving...

Please no hints, suggestions or discussion of possible transfers on this board.


Should not have dropped acid before the tip, the colors of the broadcast screwed with me at randomly intermittently times.

Jack, Javin, and Tre got it done.

Was it a technical flaw that none of the producers noticed, or did someone actually think giving everyone blue skin from time-to-time was a good idea?

mgtr
11-05-2019, 10:18 PM
I am obviously thrilled that I could not get a bet down against Duke, no matter the odds or the points. Duke should have won this game based on great overall play.

El_Diablo
11-05-2019, 10:19 PM
LOVE beating Kansas after this recent run of losses. Every L we have suffered in this event is at their hands.

Kentucky beat us in 2015.

TheOldBattleship
11-05-2019, 10:19 PM
Was it a technical flaw that none of the producers noticed, or did someone actually think giving everyone blue skin from time-to-time was a good idea?

My only thought was that they were they maybe filming MSG's big videoscreen and that messed with the color? Totally weird and hilarious decision regardless. Blue Bill Self was a lot to handle.

Neals384
11-05-2019, 10:20 PM
Overall - team showed some great determination and hustle. Kansas' turnovers often seemed self-inflicted, but our pressure defense had a lot to do with it. Offense not in sync, especially early on. Overwhelmed during Jayhawks big run early 2nd half (call that timeout one possession earlier, K) but fought back hard. Amazing, gritty win!

Tre - MOTM. He still does it all - disrupting the opponents, super assists, made a few buckets and clutch free throws. Tre Pebbles deserves an upgrade to Tre Cobbles!

Jack - The legend is back! Nice defense, key steal in the final minute. Even a 3-pt bucket. (Yeah, there were a couple uglies, too.)

Javin - Much improved presence, especially on defense. 4 fouls but most were from energetic defense, not the out-of-position / off-balance fouls of yore.

Cassius - Wow! Great energy, hops and can shoot. Not everything he tried to do worked, especially in the early going, but he has great creativity that will be a huge asset to the team.

Matthew - Clearly he can shoot. Court and situational awareness needs work (play where Cassius made a nice pass over the top, but M didn't understand the opportunity; play where he dribbled into the corner, double-teamed. Just bounce it off a leg, dude!)

Vernon - Does so many thing well, including positively Plumleesque 3-pt shooting! Not as skilled under the basket as expected, but Kansas bigs had something to do with that. Needs killer instinct. (Can he dunk?)

AOC - Much more active and involved in the offense, but low efficiency. To hit his 3 pointers he simply must be mentally prepared to shoot before the ball gets to him. Nice stat line with 4 boards, 2 assists, 3 steals!

Wendell - Has some nice skills but maybe not as ready as the others. He did run the point at least one possession so it's nice to know that option is there if needed. He will be better than 1-6 shooting with 4 turns, but still looks like our 8th or 9th man.

Jordan - Didn't show much and probably doesn't start after this. Still love his defense although it wasn't much in evidence tonight. Disappointed to see him give up a back door cut or two.

jimmymax
11-05-2019, 10:22 PM
My only thought was that they were they maybe filming MSG's big videoscreen and that messed with the color? Totally weird and hilarious decision regardless. Blue Bill Self was a lot to handle.

I figured it was because I was flipping over to Avatar during commercials.

dukelion
11-05-2019, 10:26 PM
Basically think this was a case of our strengths matching up ideally with their weaknesses. Kansas basically has a scoring guard and nobody else to handle the ball.

But it was also interesting that for all our forced turnovers barely any led to run outs or easy baskets. Be very interested to see how we match up with a more ball secure team.

jimmymax
11-05-2019, 10:26 PM
You're happy with UK possibly taking the ship? :rolleyes:

Shouldn't we be playing the winner of UK / MSU?

In Memento fashion -- someone mentioned an acid trip -- winning the consolation game tonight presupposes that Duke have lost to KY or MSU this coming Thursday.

Native
11-05-2019, 10:35 PM
I really like the way Carey posts up. I think he’s going to be a real force inside and put up a lot of points against most every front line we play this year. Tonight may the toughest he sees all season and he still had a solid game.

Ditto. Who does Carey remind you of? I’m trying to come up with a comp for him for some of the other bigs we’ve had recently and I just can’t put my finger on it.

Anyway, great win for the guys and great to be in Cameron North for this one. Business as usual for the Blue Devils in the Big Apple.

Son of Jarhead
11-05-2019, 10:37 PM
Defense looks great, especially considering all the freshmen. Getting 28 turnovers out of Kansas is exceptional. We are going to have to shoot better, and we had 16 turnovers our selves, so we'll have to be stronger with the ball. We seemed to rush some things at times, especially the freshmen (nerves), and a few times players were stuck having to do things they are not comfortable doing. I think we'll see a great improvement over the course of the season.

Of the returning players, I thought Tre, Jack and Alex played very well. Alex's scoring in the first half kept us in it, and Tre & Jack's play, especially in the second half with clutch free throws, big buckets, key rebounds, and timely steals, made the winning difference. Javin still has some issues with fouls and not having good hands, but the kid plays his arse off. Jordan got his first start, but didn't play his best... nerves perhaps. Too bad Joey didn't get in, his shooting looked great in the exhibition.

Of the freshmen, Cassius, Vernon, and Matthew had good stretches. I think Wendell was pressing a lot. Once he settles in and starts letting the game come to him, he'll be good. Cassius was good at both ends of the floor. Vernon too, actually. Matthew can really shoot, but he is not as far along defensively as his fellow freshmen, so he was subbed out for Jack late.

The lineup that we seemed to go with most late was Tre, Jack, Vernon, Alex, and Cassius.

Go Duke!!!!!

sagegrouse
11-05-2019, 10:40 PM
Basically think this was a case of our strengths matching up ideally with their weaknesses. Kansas basically has a scoring guard and nobody else to handle the ball.

But it was also interesting that for all our forced turnovers barely any led to run outs or easy baskets. Be very interested to see how we match up with a more ball secure team.

Kansas seems to have Lurch-1, Lurch-2 and Lurch-3. Should probably play only one at a time, but the team is not deep in guards or wings.

Saw less of Matthew Hurt than I would have liked. Presumably, he and Jack White were alternating so we could keep more muscle on the court against the big lugs. Both should play.

And while Jack White bricked his first shot, he made one and had one go totally around the run before rolling off. Jack should keep shooting.

Freshmen Carey, Hurt and Stanley were six out of ten from three-point range. I'm loving it!

FerryFor50
11-05-2019, 10:50 PM
It's super tough to come to any reliable conclusions after a game like this. It's the first game for two teams in the top 5, so there are going to be rust, jitters, mistakes, etc. I'm watching it right now in real time in the KY-MSU game. Except that game is a foul-fest rather than a turnover-fest.

It's also tough because we've got last season's unbelievable freshmen in our minds and none of these kids are Zion or RJ.

That said, I wasn't sure what to expect out of the game, but I liked most of what I saw. They played some disruptive defense most of the time, and held their own against a pretty massive front line. They shot just well enough from 3. They battled and didn't give up when they were down by 9 or so in the 2nd, nor did they rest on their laurels when they went up by 6 or so in the first.

They forced nearly 30 turnovers. (I can confidently say they were forced, because even the soft turnovers by KU were the result of some solid possession defense)

Best of all they won with solid defense down the stretch, clutch rebounds and free throw shooting at the end of the game. Sure, it wasn't a 30+ point blowout like last year's Kentucky game, but as we saw, that game wasn't exactly a predictor of future success.

This year's Duke team will have ups and downs, but I suspect the effort will always be there and the defense will get better as the season goes on, provided everyone stays healthy.

As for individual efforts:

Tre played very good defense for the most part, but gave up some blow bys. His shot is still a work in progress... hopefully that's more about the longer 3 point line than him.

Goldwire had good energy, but is still a liability on offense. He doesn't make great decisions with the ball yet.

Hurt played as good as advertised, but he's a bit thin and will need to get stronger if he wants to battle inside.

Carey is a BIG boy, but doesn't seem to realize it yet. His overall game reminds me a bit of Wendell Carter with the stretch aspect, but he doesn't have the same moves or defensive acumen yet.

Stanley was solid. Coming in, I had heard some of the hype, but wasn't sure how he'd do at this level after his late rise/surprise commitment. Very active on defense, finished well and even knocked down a 3. Hopefully that wasn't an outlier.

AOC played fairly well - still has some lapses on defense. But his follow dunk was great, and he was able to hit some threes when we needed them.

White will make a few glue guy/blue collar/lunch pail teams. It was good to see him hit a three and he should have had 2 with the one that rimmed out. But he also had a game clinching steal against an opponent that was way larger than him.

Delaurier was Delaurier. Lots of energy. Lots of hustle. Solid defense. Lots of fouls and some missed bunnies. I didn't see a ton of improvement over the last few seasons, but we don't really need him to be more than what he is. Just glad he didn't seem to be too hurt after he landed hard.

Moore didn't impress me a ton - lots of poor decisions on offense. Some terrible contested fadeaway shots. Missed layups. Foul trouble. Weak with the ball. Maybe it was freshman jitters. We'll see... But right now, I see Stanley supplanting him as a starter.

As for Joey Baker, I agree with proelitedota - game was likely too big to see Baker in there. Let's see how he does against lesser teams and if he can earn some minutes.

FerryFor50
11-05-2019, 10:51 PM
Ditto. Who does Carey remind you of? I’m trying to come up with a comp for him for some of the other bigs we’ve had recently and I just can’t put my finger on it.

Anyway, great win for the guys and great to be in Cameron North for this one. Business as usual for the Blue Devils in the Big Apple.

Wendell Carter for me - especially with the range to the three point line.

kako
11-05-2019, 10:55 PM
5 thoughts...

(preface - love that college hoops has started again!)

1. Ugly game. Duke's D was good, but KU absolutely was terrible with the ball as well, not all caused by Duke alone. Before anyone declares this team the 2nd coming of the '92 team, let's see how they do against other competition. Seriously, KU made some questionable plays with the ball (as did Duke - their 16 turnovers isn't so great, either).

2. Jones - he scored and hit the FTs to seal the game. But overall I was really hoping to see a better shooting game out of him. He looked a lot like the player from last year.

3. Hurt, Carey, AOC - take more 3's, boys! This team needs to have shots go down, especially if K continues to use the Jones/JGold combo a lot. It's ok for a few minutes here and there, but only if the other guys are shooters. Then the guards can drive and dish.

4. I'm fearing another year of questionable FT shooting. It sunk the Devils last year (I loved Barrett, but his missed FT killed the season against MSU). Missed FTs take years off my life.

5. I liked the new rules - the 3 pt line, the reduced shot clock after an offensive board. Of course, the new 3 pt line is going to make it all the harder on Jones. I have a really negative thought in my head with a comparison to a former OSU PG... Jones is not that bad (at least he can hit FTs), but for Duke to win big this year, he's going to need to be effective from 3.

9F

HaveFunExpectToWin
11-05-2019, 10:57 PM
Anyone else see Cassius Stanley‘s game and have flashbacks to Ricky Price?

Great opening win, with everyone already mentioning the obvious need for the O to be more cohesive and the D to continue being our strength.

I like him as a modern day Thomas Hill.

I am all in on Cassius Stanley. Love his game.

Unrelated, what is Will Avery’s role on the staff?

ncexnyc
11-05-2019, 11:00 PM
My biggest takeaway from the game was that the team didn't fold like a cheap suit when KU started so hot in the 2nd half.

I'm not sure why KU is ranked as high as they are. They don't seem to have any outside shooting and I'm not sure pounding the ball down low with guys who have trouble hitting free throws is a recipe for success.

Wahoo2000
11-05-2019, 11:07 PM
My biggest takeaway from the game was that the team didn't fold like a cheap suit when KU started so hot in the 2nd half.

I'm not sure why KU is ranked as high as they are. They don't seem to have any outside shooting and I'm not sure pounding the ball down low with guys who have trouble hitting free throws is a recipe for success.

Shaquille O'Neal has a bone to pick with you.

Seriously, Kansas will overwhelm most teams inside. I thought Duke did a reasonably good job of not getting totally abused inside. Didn't hurt that the refs seemed to be a lot harder on posts players than perimeter guys when it came to shuffling/dragging pivot feet. Also, I think Dotson will dominate most guards they play. Not Jones though. Just the fact that Dotson looked pretty solid vs prob the best perimeter defender in CBB says a lot.

dukeinla
11-05-2019, 11:08 PM
Agreed. I was shocked when a Goldwire got burned not once, but twice on backdoors.

actually he got burned 3 times but who is counting !

TheOldBattleship
11-05-2019, 11:09 PM
My biggest takeaway from the game was that the team didn't fold like a cheap suit when KU started so hot in the 2nd half.

I'm not sure why KU is ranked as high as they are. They don't seem to have any outside shooting and I'm not sure pounding the ball down low with guys who have trouble hitting free throws is a recipe for success.

Agreed on the first point. There was a moment when that game was really teetering on the brink of getting out of hand, and our focus to bear down and get back in the game was really wonderful to see. Hard to instill that kind of toughness if it's not already there!

I think that, while Kansas isn't a great shooting team, they aren't as bad as they looked tonight. It was overshadowed by the turnovers tonight, but I thought we did an absolutely fantastic job of both running guys off the three-point line and then recovering to prevent the drive. I bet that Kansas looks a lot better against teams that aren't as active defensively, and that they end up as a top-ten team going into the tournament.

ndkjr70
11-05-2019, 11:09 PM
(redacted) Can jay bilas tone down the “trying to look impartial so I can’t stand duke” nonsense?

EVERY Kansas turnover: “oh my GOD these UNFORCED ERRORS!”

EVERY Duke turnover: “wow! Kansas defense is sensational! Duke has a bad offense! Bad! Wow!”

Infuriating to the point where I had to mute my TV to enjoy an entertaining basketball game.

TheOldBattleship
11-05-2019, 11:14 PM
I figured it was because I was flipping over to Avatar during commercials.

9926

mkirsh
11-05-2019, 11:14 PM
Anyone else see Cassius Stanley‘s game and have flashbacks to Ricky Price?



Sort of has some Cory Magette in his game.

I was thinking the same thing as you both - flashes of Ricky Price and Corey Magette. His 7 point spurt was huge in this game. Sign me up for the Cassius Stanley fan club!

duke4ever19
11-05-2019, 11:20 PM
Currently watching MSU and Kentucky . . . this year looks wide-open.

ChillinDuke
11-05-2019, 11:21 PM
Gotta love when 40 minutes into the regular season DBR posters are proclaiming what this team is good and not good at. It must be basketball season!!!

I'm not going to take much out of this game. But the few things I will take...

1) our defense is ahead of our offense
2) we don't appear to have anyone who is truly miles ahead skill-wise
3) 3pt shooting is not clearly fixed since last year and Tre still cant shoot

That's about all from me. But I'm obviously jazzed and enjoyed watching the team in person tonight.

Should be a fun year with a lot of ups and downs.

- Chillin

BlueDevil16
11-05-2019, 11:32 PM
If we had last years team this year I think we’d be cutting down the nets in April. Seems like a bad year of college basketball, or at least the most parity that we’ve seen in awhile.

Steven43
11-05-2019, 11:38 PM
Jesus. Freaking. Christ. Can jay bilas tone down the “trying to look impartial so I can’t stand duke” nonsense?

EVERY Kansas turnover: “oh my GOD these UNFORCED ERRORS!”

EVERY Duke turnover: “wow! Kansas defense is sensational! Duke has a bad offense! Bad! Wow!”

Infuriating to the point where I had to mute my TV to enjoy an entertaining basketball game.
I gave up on giving any credence to Jay Bilas’s comments about Duke’s basketball teams more than 20 years ago. I’m surprised it took you this long.

frb
11-05-2019, 11:44 PM
This

Stanley might end up being the highest drafted player from this team.


nah.. remember, he's 2 years older than Wendell Moore. He could be a Junior in college. Zion Williamson is an entire year younger than him. NBA looks at that.

Saratoga2
11-05-2019, 11:53 PM
Gotta love when 40 minutes into the regular season DBR posters are proclaiming what this team is good and not good at. It must be basketball season!!!

I'm not going to take much out of this game. But the few things I will take...

1) our defense is ahead of our offense
2) we don't appear to have anyone who is truly miles ahead skill-wise
3) 3pt shooting is not clearly fixed since last year and Tre still cant shoot

That's about all from me. But I'm obviously jazzed and enjoyed watching the team in person tonight.

Should be a fun year with a lot of ups and downs.

- Chillin

In general, I agree. This was our first test against a solid oponent with strong bigs and good athletes. To me, I saw little coordination in the offense with the exception of a couple of fast breaks Jones to Stanley. Our defense was energetic and will improve. Jack White will get a lot of PT just based on his court awareness and smart tough defense.


I too see the mainstays of our lineup, if not starters, to be Jones, Stanley, Carey, White and Hurt. Iwonder about Joey not getting in but am not willing to draw any conclusions as to why as he would have seemed to be a logical player in this game.Maybe just illness or injury.

I was disappointed with DeLaurier's play. He has a lot of experience but showed little offensive capability, missed most of his FT and fouled way too much. Moore looked a little raw, but is strong and athletic and maybe will come along given time. Jones approach to driving into the trees without a plan seemed to be freshman like.

DukeinDC
11-06-2019, 12:01 AM
I gave up on giving any credence to Jay Bilas’s comments about Duke’s basketball teams more than 20 years ago. I’m surprised it took you this long.

This is true but it did feel like the first 20 min were literally a commentary about what we don’t have this year to the point it should be a motivational video for this team.

Truth be told, Bilas is very much in the Brotherhood fold. I think he over compensates but if/when something hits the fan on the compliance or whatever side - real or not - he’s also well positioned to give air time to the programs point of view.

And while now this is becoming a different topic all together as many said before, notable that Bilas is one of the most vocal advocates of player compensation and while many coaches obfuscated during media days, K purposefully helped shove the NCAA to over a ledge on this issue they were never willing to consider.

I’m short, they be tight. Hold our fire on him and play the long game.

ShaneRyan
11-06-2019, 12:22 AM
Wonderful game, and I don't have much to add, but I would just like to say how awesome it is to have a point guard who basically shuts down his opposite number in almost every game. Really changes the dynamic of the game and constricts space to the point that some of these turnovers are inevitable. God help any opponent of ours this year who relies too heavily on PG play to facilitate offense.

KandG
11-06-2019, 12:53 AM
I'm not going to take much out of this game. But the few things I will take...

1) our defense is ahead of our offense
2) we don't appear to have anyone who is truly miles ahead skill-wise
3) 3pt shooting is not clearly fixed since last year and Tre still cant shoot

That's about all from me. But I'm obviously jazzed and enjoyed watching the team in person tonight.

Should be a fun year with a lot of ups and downs.


Agree, I can't get too worked up about a game this early in the season (even against such a good opponent), though it was really nice to see our young guys take charge, and watch the whole team weather some ugly stretches of play to hold on for the win.

Fascinating that as the game came down to the final possessions, re point 2 bolded above, I really couldn't figure out who the primary option would be (assuming Kansas didn't have a glaring defensive lapse and left someone wide open). Trying to remember the last time I watched a Duke game and felt that way. Even our "lesser" teams over the last decade plus usually had someone you knew was going to get the ball if it came down to a face-up isolation or post up (Ingram, Rivers, Allen, Henderson, etc).

The ball will be in Tre's hands, but he's not an especially skilled isolation scorer (nice clinching bucket though). I know that as the team gets more practice time, Vernon may well by the primary option, or Hurt. But we're a long way from Zion/RJ/Jah territory. A lot of different cooks may be involved in producing results this season.

That defense looks great early though. And I love Jack's headiness, versatility, and overall hustle on both ends. Sure hope Joey Baker can show us some things in the lesser games coming up.

Dr. Rosenrosen
11-06-2019, 01:05 AM
This is far too fantastic not to post...

9928

Kedsy
11-06-2019, 02:18 AM
Great win against a top 5 team. Crazily enough, however, we only did one thing particularly well:

OFFENSE

Possessions: 80.14 (that's a very fast-paced game)
oRtg: 0.85 (that's really bad)
eFG%: 42.2% (also really bad)
3pt%: 33.3% (not awful but not good)
2pt%: 37.5% (awful)
%threes: 37.5% (OK, probably a little high for a team that didn't shoot so well)
FT rate: 35.9% (pretty good, but not outstanding)
OR%: 26.8% (dreadful)
TO%: 20.0% (not good)
a/to: 0.75:1 (somewhat bad)
%assisted: 52.2% (fine, but not great)
fast break pts: 15 (22.0% of points; decent)

DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.82 (excellent, but seemingly for just one reason)
eFG%: 50.0% (not good)
3pt%: 44.4% (bad)
2pt%: 46.3% (not bad, but not great)
%threes: 18.0% (if they're going to shoot that well from three, good thing we didn't give them many open looks from out there)
FT rate: 52.0% (kinda terrible)
DR%: 65.5% (meh)
TO%: 34.9% (incredibly good)
a/to: 0.46:1 (you don't see top 5 teams with numbers like this very often)
%assisted: 56.5% (so when they didn't turn it over, they tended to connect)
stl%: 13.7% (good)
blk%: 6.0% (7.3% of 2pt shots) (not great)
fast break pts: 17 (25.8% of points; poor)


So, like I said, good thing we were so amazing at forcing turnovers because we didn't do much else at a high level. If future opponents can hold onto the ball better than Kansas, we're going to have to improve on both sides of the ball.


Sure, it wasn't a 30+ point blowout like last year's Kentucky game, but as we saw, that game wasn't exactly a predictor of future success.

Last year's Duke team won the ACC tournament, was the #1 overall seed in the NCAAT, and came within one basket of the Final Four. What kind of predictor were you looking for?

bigperm13
11-06-2019, 02:52 AM
Most wins at any level for Coach K. Take a bow. Just don't do it here because you didn't play Joey Baker. Duke would have easily won by at least 30 had he put in JBizzle. They would have probably renamed it Baker Square Garden as well. I recant the take a bow. Duke needs a new coach. Stat. Preferably one with way less than 1133 wins.

Bay Area Duke Fan
11-06-2019, 03:10 AM
Wonderful game, and I don't have much to add, but I would just like to say how awesome it is to have a point guard who basically shuts down his opposite number in almost every game. Really changes the dynamic of the game and constricts space to the point that some of these turnovers are inevitable. God help any opponent of ours this year who relies too heavily on PG play to facilitate offense.

I’m looking forward to seeing how Tre does in the Dec 3 rematch with C Winston & Co.

proelitedota
11-06-2019, 03:56 AM
The highlight of the game has to be this KU possession for me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/dsdb3e/champions_classic_2019_in_a_nutshell/

Dukehk
11-06-2019, 04:31 AM
Hoping this team continues to grow on the offensive end as well. We need to find our go-to scorers. Looking like Tre and Carey for now. Hurt surprisingly not in the lineup during crunchtime.

We certainly are a gritty defensive team though. That bodes well as always.

Its been a long time since we've had such depth too. Alot of guys fighting for minutes. Hopefully Joey stays patient.

UrinalCake
11-06-2019, 05:13 AM
When Tre got that shooter’s bounce with a minute left after the shot hit every part of the rim, was I the only one thinking how much I would have liked to have that happen two seasons ago?

HereBeforeCoachK
11-06-2019, 05:14 AM
Truth be told, Bilas is very much in the Brotherhood fold. I think he over compensates .......
I’m short, they be tight. Hold our fire on him and play the long game.

Hmmm, strange. I would be interested in evidence that he is "very much" in the brotherhood fold. Oh, yeah, he over compensates.....and he has been for 20 years. How long of a long game are you playing? I won't hold my fire on him.

BullBlue
11-06-2019, 05:53 AM
The highlight of the game has to be this KU possession for me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/dsdb3e/champions_classic_2019_in_a_nutshell/

Yes! That was great, my favorite, too.

lotusland
11-06-2019, 05:57 AM
I thought he was pretty good in just contributing to the general defensive pressure (backdoors aside, and a couple of those are always going to happen with the pressure), even if he wasn't the one coming up with the steals. That said, if AOC is going to be reasonably effective defensively (as he definitely was tonight), I'd be surprised if he doesn't take Goldwire's starting job, moving Goldwire into a more natural spot as the primary backup point who can also play beside Jones. He just offers so much more variety offensively, and the fact that he's bigger (or longer, at least) makes for some interesting matchup options.

And agreed: I'd be shocked if we see less of Stanley going forward. If anything, I'd guess that his role increases as the year goes on (I'm intrigued to see him being a bit more aggressive as a off-the-dribble creator on offense).

Stanley played 30 minutes, second to only Trey, so his role was pretty big. Idk if he can average more than 30mpg with so many options at wing but his play stood out among the freshmen. I never know what to expect with freshmen but his game is more complete than I expected.

91devil
11-06-2019, 06:02 AM
Ditto. Who does Carey remind you of? I’m trying to come up with a comp for him for some of the other bigs we’ve had recently and I just can’t put my finger on it.

Anyway, great win for the guys and great to be in Cameron North for this one. Business as usual for the Blue Devils in the Big Apple.

To me, I think the (early) comp is Josh McRoberts. Both left-handed, both with a fluid outside shot. Vernon looks to have a stronger post game and Josh had better passing skills. Of course this comp is based on one game.

But the left-handed thing is what stood out to me.

lotusland
11-06-2019, 06:19 AM
5 thoughts...

(preface - love that college hoops has started again!)

1. Ugly game. Duke's D was good, but KU absolutely was terrible with the ball as well, not all caused by Duke alone. Before anyone declares this team the 2nd coming of the '92 team, let's see how they do against other competition. Seriously, KU made some questionable plays with the ball (as did Duke - their 16 turnovers isn't so great, either).

2. Jones - he scored and hit the FTs to seal the game. But overall I was really hoping to see a better shooting game out of him. He looked a lot like the player from last year.

3. Hurt, Carey, AOC - take more 3's, boys! This team needs to have shots go down, especially if K continues to use the Jones/JGold combo a lot. It's ok for a few minutes here and there, but only if the other guys are shooters. Then the guards can drive and dish.

4. I'm fearing another year of questionable FT shooting. It sunk the Devils last year (I loved Barrett, but his missed FT killed the season against MSU). Missed FTs take years off my life.

5. I liked the new rules - the 3 pt line, the reduced shot clock after an offensive board. Of course, the new 3 pt line is going to make it all the harder on Jones. I have a really negative thought in my head with a comparison to a former OSU PG... Jones is not that bad (at least he can hit FTs), but for Duke to win big this year, he's going to need to be effective from 3.

9F

I disagree on point number 2. Tre was much more prominent last night than on last year’s team. He was in charge. I don’t think we’ll see Tre standing in the corner unguarded this year. The offense is going through him. I think he will become more efficient as he gets comfortable with his teammates. On a couple of his drives there was no movement without the ball by his teammates. I think guys will learn to find their spots on the court for Trey to find them. There’s no RJ, and Cam this year so Trey will be in the driver seat all year.

TruBlu
11-06-2019, 06:37 AM
Hmmm, strange. I would be interested in evidence that he is "very much" in the brotherhood fold. Oh, yeah, he over compensates...and he has been for 20 years. How long of a long game are you playing? I won't hold my fire on him.

In fairness, Jay actually last night pointed out TWO (2) ref calls that went in the favor of Kansas. One was a foul called on Stanley where there was “little, if no contact”. Of course, this doesn’t make up for the numerous times he pointed out that Duke got “favorable” calls. Baby steps for Jay...maybe he is headed toward less over compensating.

fuse
11-06-2019, 06:46 AM
If you had told me we shot 37% FG with 33% 3s, 61% FT, outrebounded by 10 and won the game, I'd think you were a lunatic.

If you had told me before the game that Tre would be our leading scorer and Stanley our second leading scorer, I’d ask you to buy me a lottery ticket.

JStuart
11-06-2019, 07:18 AM
In fairness, Jay actually last night pointed out TWO (2) ref calls that went in the favor of Kansas. One was a foul called on Stanley where there was “little, if no contact”. Of course, this doesn’t make up for the numerous times he pointed out that Duke got “favorable” calls. Baby steps for Jay...maybe he is headed toward less over compensating.

Agreed, plus he used a way softer voice than in previous broadcasts, when he would use a more indignant tone. But, it is early in the season yet, I'm confident Jay will get back into his usual snarkiness on calls that Duke gets away with.

Spanarkel
11-06-2019, 07:37 AM
You can't win a game with 28 turnovers against a decent opponent. I wonder if that going to be an issue for Kansas this year. Tre Jones can do every thing extremely well except shoot from outside. White had a good game. We should have someone punch him in the mouth before every shot maybe, as he hit a nice three after taking a hit. Otherwise, he is not a shooter. Nice game from Stanley, after he settled down and he was out on the floor at at least some of the end, some nice moments from Hurt, and DeLaurier helped today, doing good DeLaurier things. Some nice offense from O'Connell. Moore still learning. Carey played well, especially for his first division I game, and even hit two threes. I noticed that his shot is on target, but lacks spin/arc. If he could develop those and get some good bounces...I don't wonder if shooting is going to be an issue this year. That's because it is going to be an issue this year.


Not sure what you're referring to here, as Carey's outside shot has a nice arc(couldn't tell about the spin).

SkyBrickey
11-06-2019, 07:48 AM
Ditto. Who does Carey remind you of? I’m trying to come up with a comp for him for some of the other bigs we’ve had recently and I just can’t put my finger on it.

Anyway, great win for the guys and great to be in Cameron North for this one. Business as usual for the Blue Devils in the Big Apple.

I don't know that there's a recent comp, but when I saw him play in CTC, he reminded me of Elton Brand. Light on his feet. Great footwork. Muscles inside for baskets. Soft hands and soft touch around the rim.

You are right that it's hard to read too much into going up against big U. last night - freshman Brand would have likely struggled. I would say Elton Brand rebounded and defended better out of the gate, but Carey is a much better outside shooter. I don't expect Carey to be a #1 draft pick, but that's who is game most reminds me of.

I should add too that Brand LOVED banging inside and while Carey is definitely built for it, he plays a more inside/outside game (which I can't fault him for since that's where the modern game has moved).

crf30
11-06-2019, 08:03 AM
Late in the game, Duke took a three point shot early in the shot clock. It missed, and Duke got the offensive rebound. The commentators noted that the new rule reset the shot clock to 20 seconds for offensive rebounds.

Does this always apply? I ask because it appeared to me that in the play I described there were 23 seconds left on the shot clock when the shot was missed. So time was actually taken off the shot clock when it was reset. It would make sense for it to not reset in such cases, but I suppose that makes it a little more complicated for the person operating the shot clock.

Acymetric
11-06-2019, 08:10 AM
Most wins at any level* for Coach K. Take a bow. Just don't do it here because you didn't play Joey Baker. Duke would have easily won by at least 30 had he put in JBizzle. They would have probably renamed it Baker Square Garden as well. I recant the take a bow. Duke needs a new coach. Stat. Preferably one with way less than 1133 wins.

*Any collegiate level. There are high coaches and NBA coaches with more wins ;).

SkyBrickey
11-06-2019, 08:14 AM
Like others on here, Cassius Stanley was the big positive surprise for me last night.

His super athleticism translated on both the offensive and defensive ends. For a few possessions on defense, I found myself just watching Stanley play on the ball and off the ball - he seems to just float effortlessly around the court like he's playing in lower gravity than everyone else. Same thing on some of his offensive drives, a smooth lightning-quick first two steps.

And if you have the game recorded, watch the second fast break dunk where Tre makes the long bounce pass. As soon as we secure the rebound, it's like Stanley was shot out of a gun. I don't think there's anyone else on the court for either team who could have created that angle for the long pass and dunk.

And the 3-pointer looked like a beautiful stroke - much better form than Tre or Wendell or Jack - so I'm hopeful to see more of that.

I knew Stanley was going to be a freak run and jump athlete, but his game appears to be a lot more developed than I expected. I think he'll be in the starting line-up next game and going forward unless he regresses... Hoping last night was just an off-night for Wendell. I think he's a lot better than what he showed.

budwom
11-06-2019, 08:16 AM
Watching pal posed a PTI like question before the game: which is more likely, Joey B making two threes, or not getting in the game at all (the box score lists him with zero minutes, did he make a brief appearance at the end)?

Obviously for the time being at least, defense is required.

TKG
11-06-2019, 08:18 AM
Sort of has some Cory Magette in his game.

I will be a believer when he does a chin-up on the rim and slaps the backboard 😀

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-06-2019, 08:21 AM
I will be a believer when he does a chin-up on the rim and slaps the backboard 😀

Uh oh...

uh_no
11-06-2019, 08:33 AM
When Tre got that shooter’s bounce with a minute left after the shot hit every part of the rim, was I the only one thinking how much I would have liked to have that happen two seasons ago?

tre on that team would have made the difference.

Bluedog
11-06-2019, 08:36 AM
When Tre got that shooter’s bounce with a minute left after the shot hit every part of the rim, was I the only one thinking how much I would have liked to have that happen two seasons ago?

I was thinking the same thing...gah! Honestly, Grayson's shot looked more on point and going in than Tre's did. Grayson's basically went around the entirety of the rim and spun out. Tre's shot was off the mark, and got a couple of high bounces to drop in. Sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don't. So close...(two years ago.)

duke96
11-06-2019, 08:39 AM
The highlight of the game has to be this KU possession for me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/dsdb3e/champions_classic_2019_in_a_nutshell/

That was an exciting sequence. Not loving Carey’s play in that exchange though. As our key big, strong guy he needs to be in the mix around the rim.

Devilwin
11-06-2019, 08:47 AM
Very pleased with the defensive effort. Offense needs lots of work. And put me in the "Where is Baker" crowd. He is obviously our top three point threat, and God knows we need scoring. But until I win 1134 games...I won't tell K how to coach. That being said it puzzles me.
Javin gives the effort, but shows no improvement on offense, missing layups like he has done from day one. Tre still can't make threes. Was pleased with Stanley and Hurt. Karey and AOC played well. Jack was the MOTM for me with his defensive effort.
After one game though, we'll take the win. Improvement will certainly come..

Indoor66
11-06-2019, 08:53 AM
Why is he out obvious 3 point threat?

DukieInKansas
11-06-2019, 09:03 AM
The highlight of the game has to be this KU possession for me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketball/comments/dsdb3e/champions_classic_2019_in_a_nutshell/

Jay kept going on about how a player doesn't go down like that without a foul happening. Watching the play, it appears that the Duke player lets go of the ball and the KU player's momentum took him down. Still makes me chuckle.

Dr. Rosenrosen
11-06-2019, 09:07 AM
Jay kept going on about how a player doesn't go down like that without a foul happening. Watching the play, it appears that the Duke player lets go of the ball and the KU player's momentum took him down. Still makes me chuckle.
How dare you! Jay is never wrong.

Edouble
11-06-2019, 09:27 AM
To me, I think the (early) comp is Josh McRoberts. Both left-handed, both with a fluid outside shot. Vernon looks to have a stronger post game and Josh had better passing skills. Of course this comp is based on one game.

But the left-handed thing is what stood out to me.

Very different players. McRoberts had insane handles for a big and could go coast to coast in three dribbles. Vernon is huge compared to Josh (+30 lbs).

I'd say Carey is much more like Carter, a more traditional big with an outside shot, than McRoberts, more of a position-less big with an all around stat-sheet-stuffer kind of game. But I don't think that Carey's game is much like Carter's either.

The only thing they have in common, IMHO, is that they both shoot threes.


How dare you! Jay is never wrong.

Yes, Jay was his usual self last night, but where was other Jay? Has he been replaced by LaPhonso?

I see that Jay now works on NBA Countdown, The Jump and Get Up. Doe that mean he is done with NCAA/Gameday stuff?

flyingdutchdevil
11-06-2019, 09:28 AM
Really happy for the win. And really happy this team has found their identity. My observations:

Players
Tre #1: He is the unquestionable leader. He is a fantastic player with 7 assists. He can drive. He can defend at an elite level. And, most importantly, we can lead. Believe it!

Tre #2: He cannot shot 3s to save his life. Across 2 exhibition games and 1 real game, he is 0-10. Will he be better than last year? Maybe. Will he be a reliable shooter? Nope. Believe it!

Carey: 75% of his points came from 3pt land. He wasn't a solid post player but didn't really force it either. And needs a tooooon of help on understanding help D. Don't believe it. Dok is a load

Moore: Probably the most "disappointing" game of the freshman. Looked like he was trying to rely on his physical tools to get by opponents. Works in HS. Does not work in college. Don't believe it. He'll get a lot better as the season progresses

Hurt: Love his game. He is the stretch 4 Duke hasn't had since Tatum. He will definitely be our best shooter who gets plenty of minutes. He will have our highest scoring game this year, but he'll also frustrate the hell out of fans with games where he's 1-9 and 2-15. That said, he'll be our most important scorer this year. Believe it!

Stanley: My new love. He's the type of Duke player Duke hasn't had since...Amile? Essentially a true role player who is a very good opportunistic scorer and tough as nails. Unfortunately, our friends down the road have had a few of these players (Tokoto, Pinson, etc): defensive-minded, always hustling, hyper-athletic, listens to the coach, etc. These are the best kind of role players. Believe it!

Goldwire: Not a very good game. Got burned a few times defensively and was a non-factor on offense. We will be there when we need him, but I think he'll be 8th/9th in the pecking order and fall out of the starting line-up. Don't believe it. Goldwire had a bad game, but he'll be there when we need to pressure the hell out of the ball. Tre, Goldwire, and Stanley can on of the best defensive backcourts in the country

DeLaurier: Was vintage DeLaurier - can't shoot, terrible at FTs, fouled a lot, solid rebounding, good defense, and probably some strong leadership. This is DeLaurier. Believe it!

White: Vintage White in Nov/Dec 2018 - solid rebounding, streaky shooting (I mean, he basically air-balled a wide open 3), team plays, and always in the right place at the right time. He's never going to be a star. I hope he never starts (as that would be a sign the rest of the team is slipping). But you know what you're going to get from White. And that's okay. Believe it!

AOC: Where the hell did this come from? He showed by far the most improvement. No silly AOC turnovers. No silly AOC defensive mistakes. Great shot selection. Underrated athleticism. If his defense is as good moving forward as it was yesterday, then Duke has options! His shooting is incredible, especially compared to everyone not named Hurt. I wanna believe it, but the improvement was just so drastic. Maybe the lack of improvement from DeLaurier and White is made up for by AOC's improvement?

Baker: 9 players played double digits. Baker didn't enter the game. Baker may be the odd man out, especially if Hurt and AOC are reliable from 3 and play solid minutes. Burning that red shirt is looking dumber and dumber. Believe it!

TKG
11-06-2019, 09:33 AM
Uh oh...
Maggette O!

Steven43
11-06-2019, 09:38 AM
This is true but it did feel like the first 20 min were literally a commentary about what we don’t have this year to the point it should be a motivational video for this team.

Truth be told, Bilas is very much in the Brotherhood fold. I think he over compensates but if/when something hits the fan on the compliance or whatever side - real or not - he’s also well positioned to give air time to the programs point of view.

And while now this is becoming a different topic all together as many said before, notable that Bilas is one of the most vocal advocates of player compensation and while many coaches obfuscated during media days, K purposefully helped shove the NCAA to over a ledge on this issue they were never willing to consider.

I’m short, they be tight. Hold our fire on him and play the long game.
Hey, I’m not saying Jay Bilas is a bad guy or I don’t like him. I know he loves Duke University, Coach K, the basketball program, and all that. It’s just, like you said, whenever he is commentating on a Duke game or the Duke team in general he goes out of his way to find faults. And the most galling thing of all is that he does the exact opposite for UNC. It’s absolutely maddening.

jv001
11-06-2019, 09:40 AM
Really happy for the win. And really happy this team has found their identity. My observations:

Players
Tre #1: He is the unquestionable leader. He is a fantastic player with 7 assists. He can drive. He can defend at an elite level. And, most importantly, we can lead. Believe it!

Tre #2: He cannot shot 3s to save his life. Across 2 exhibition games and 1 real game, he is 0-10. Will he be better than last year? Maybe. Will he be a reliable shooter? Nope. Believe it!

Carey: 75% of his points came from 3pt land. He wasn't a solid post player but didn't really force it either. And needs a tooooon of help on understanding help D. Don't believe it. Dok is a load

Moore: Probably the most "disappointing" game of the freshman. Looked like he was trying to rely on his physical tools to get by opponents. Works in HS. Does not work in college. Don't believe it. He'll get a lot better as the season progresses

Hurt: Love his game. He is the stretch 4 Duke hasn't had since Tatum. He will definitely be our best shooter who gets plenty of minutes. He will have our highest scoring game this year, but he'll also frustrate the hell out of fans with games where he's 1-9 and 2-15. That said, he'll be our most important scorer this year. Believe it!

Stanley: My new love. He's the type of Duke player Duke hasn't had since...Amile? Essentially a true role player who is a very good opportunistic scorer and tough as nails. Unfortunately, our friends down the road have had a few of these players (Tokoto, Pinson, etc): defensive-minded, always hustling, hyper-athletic, listens to the coach, etc. These are the best kind of role players. Believe it!

Goldwire: Not a very good game. Got burned a few times defensively and was a non-factor on offense. We will be there when we need him, but I think he'll be 8th/9th in the pecking order and fall out of the starting line-up. Don't believe it. Goldwire had a bad game, but he'll be there when we need to pressure the hell out of the ball. Tre, Goldwire, and Stanley can on of the best defensive backcourts in the country

DeLaurier: Was vintage DeLaurier - can't shoot, terrible at FTs, fouled a lot, solid rebounding, good defense, and probably some strong leadership. This is DeLaurier. Believe it!

White: Vintage White in Nov/Dec 2018 - solid rebounding, streaky shooting (I mean, he basically air-balled a wide open 3), team plays, and always in the right place at the right time. He's never going to be a star. I hope he never starts (as that would be a sign the rest of the team is slipping). But you know what you're going to get from White. And that's okay. Believe it!

AOC: Where the hell did this come from? He showed by far the most improvement. No silly AOC turnovers. No silly AOC defensive mistakes. Great shot selection. Underrated athleticism. If his defense is as good moving forward as it was yesterday, then Duke has options! His shooting is incredible, especially compared to everyone not named Hurt. I wanna believe it, but the improvement was just so drastic. Maybe the lack of improvement from DeLaurier and White is made up for by AOC's improvement?

Baker: 9 players played double digits. Baker didn't enter the game. Baker may be the odd man out, especially if Hurt and AOC are reliable from 3 and play solid minutes. Burning that red shirt is looking dumber and dumber. Believe it!

Some good stuff FDD. The only quibble is on White. I thought Jack played an outstanding game. Yes, he air balled one three but made one and had another go all the way down in the basket to be puked back up. It looks like he's not going to let his missed threes affect the other parts of his game. His defense was outstanding last night. I think he did many positive things. Where as, Javin didn't. I'm pretty sure there are going to be games that Javin steps up and makes some big plays. He just needs to work on finishing strong at the basket and don't foul so much. Love the defense this team displayed on a very big stage last night. It would have been easy for this young group to have failed. Having an excellent point guard that has played on the big stage surely helped the freshman. GoDuke!

FerryFor50
11-06-2019, 09:51 AM
Last year's Duke team won the ACC tournament, was the #1 overall seed in the NCAAT, and came within one basket of the Final Four. What kind of predictor were you looking for?

Not losing to Michigan St in the Elite 8? Not losing to UNC at all?

When you completely decimate a top team like Kentucky, it sets up the mindset that you're going to run the table - fair or not.

I'm not saying last season wasn't a good year - it was. But given the lofty expectations from that Kentucky shellacking, it fell short of where it could have/should have been.

FerryFor50
11-06-2019, 09:53 AM
Jay kept going on about how a player doesn't go down like that without a foul happening. Watching the play, it appears that the Duke player lets go of the ball and the KU player's momentum took him down. Still makes me chuckle.

And that KU player was being overly aggressive trying to wrestle the ball out, which is why he lost his balance.

I'd also like to know why the forearm to the face of Tre Jones didn't qualify for "contact above the shoulders" and was a simple offensive foul.

Steven43
11-06-2019, 10:04 AM
When you completely decimate a top team like Kentucky, it sets up the mindset that you're going to run the table - fair or not.

I'm not saying last season wasn't a good year - it was. But given the lofty expectations from that Kentucky shellacking, it fell short of where it could have/should have been.

For sure. I can’t imagine a Duke fan disagreeing with your sentiments.

FerryFor50
11-06-2019, 10:09 AM
For sure. I can’t imagine a Duke fan disagreeing with your sentiments.

Conversely, last night's win sets the expectation that this year's team will:

- have lots of growing pains
- be streaky shooters
- have trouble on offense
- will give lots of effort on defense
- can beat really good teams and lose to bad ones
- could win it all (but not a given), or could be a 2nd weekend exit

I think those are completely fair expectations.

UrinalCake
11-06-2019, 10:10 AM
I'm not worried at all about Baker's lack of PT. I think it's less an indictment on him and more a matter of K sticking with the guys who were playing well. We had nine guys get double figure minutes. NINE! This is from a coach who typically plays 6 or maybe 7 guys. 18 of our 68 points (26%) came from the bench. Last season we were lucky to get 5-10 points off the bench. So I would have expected Duke fans to be jumping for joy at how much we used our bench, rather than griping that our tenth player didn't get any minutes. I think the rotation is going to be matchup-dependent, combined with K getting a feel for his players at the start of each game and managing minutes according to his gut.

We'll have games that Baker plays and another guy doesn't get off the bench at all. Against Syracuse or Virginia I would expect double digit minutes for Baker and maybe a DNP for Goldwire. We'll go small in some games and Javin or Carey will play 9 minutes. As long as everyone is in the mix, I'm not worried about how many guys play in each game. To be honest, I think 10 guys is too many for one game. You don't want to be constantly shuffling players in and out, and when someone is in a rhythm you don't want to break it up. I know the bench usage is a sensitive topic for many Duke fans, but the way the rotation shook out for this game was just about right IMO.

Troublemaker
11-06-2019, 10:11 AM
Basically think this was a case of our strengths matching up ideally with their weaknesses. Kansas basically has a scoring guard and nobody else to handle the ball.

But it was also interesting that for all our forced turnovers barely any led to run outs or easy baskets. Be very interested to see how we match up with a more ball secure team.


My biggest takeaway from the game was that the team didn't fold like a cheap suit when KU started so hot in the 2nd half.

I'm not sure why KU is ranked as high as they are. They don't seem to have any outside shooting and I'm not sure pounding the ball down low with guys who have trouble hitting free throws is a recipe for success.

KU is likely legitimately top-5 but just ran into the worst possible matchup in Game 1 of the season in the form of Tre Jones, the rest of our defense, and Coach K.

Of note: KU actually only had 7 turnovers (pdf) (https://kuathletics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Gamebook.pdf) and 4 turnover(pdf) (https://kuathletics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Box-Score-Pittsburg-St.-at-Kansas-01-November-2.pdf) in their two exhibition games. Those are actually unusually low totals even for exhibitions against weak teams. (Seriously, try to find a team around the country that had lower turnover numbers in their two exhibitions -- you may be searching for awhile.)

I give our defense large credit for the turnovers.


Hmmm, strange. I would be interested in evidence that he is "very much" in the brotherhood fold. Oh, yeah, he over compensates...and he has been for 20 years. How long of a long game are you playing? I won't hold my fire on him.

Bilas appears in a bunch of the "brotherhood" videos that Duke MBB posts online and has given motivational speeches to our teams before.

There are a few former players like Paulus that don't seem to be in touch anymore (at least in a publicly consumable fashion) but Jay is not one of them.

I largely agree with the criticism of his commentary but not with him being apart from the brotherhood.

arnie
11-06-2019, 10:24 AM
Some good stuff FDD. The only quibble is on White. I thought Jack played an outstanding game. Yes, he air balled one three but made one and had another go all the way down in the basket to be puked back up. It looks like he's not going to let his missed threes affect the other parts of his game. His defense was outstanding last night. I think he did many positive things. Where as, Javin didn't. I'm pretty sure there are going to be games that Javin steps up and makes some big plays. He just needs to work on finishing strong at the basket and don't foul so much. Love the defense this team displayed on a very big stage last night. It would have been easy for this young group to have failed. Having an excellent point guard that has played on the big stage surely helped the freshman. GoDuke!

I’m more comfortable with Jack on the floor than Javin. The time for Javin “working on finishing strong and not fouling” has probably elapsed as a senior. The Javin you see now is probably the Javin we have for rest of season. We need him to play hard, which he does, and give us 10-15 minutes a game. I just think Jack gives us more.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-06-2019, 10:25 AM
KU is likely legitimately top-5 but just ran into the worst possible matchup in Game 1 of the season in the form of Tre Jones, the rest of our defense, and Coach K.

Of note: KU actually only had 7 turnovers (pdf) (https://kuathletics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Gamebook.pdf) and 4 turnover(pdf) (https://kuathletics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Box-Score-Pittsburg-St.-at-Kansas-01-November-2.pdf) in their two exhibition games. Those are actually unusually low totals even for exhibitions against weak teams. (Seriously, try to find a team around the country that had lower turnover numbers in their two exhibitions -- you may be searching for awhile.)

I give our defense large credit for the turnovers.



Bilas appears in a bunch of the "brotherhood" videos that Duke MBB posts online and has given motivational speeches to our teams before.

There are a few former players like Paulus that don't seem to be in touch anymore (at least in a publicly consumable fashion) but Jay is not one of them.

I largely agree with the criticism of his commentary but not with him being apart from the brotherhood.

Bilas takes more criticism than any other commentator on this board. More than his fair share. Go look at the commentator thread from last season - I wager 2/3rds of the posts are Jay related.

Troublemaker
11-06-2019, 10:29 AM
But right now, I see Stanley supplanting him as a starter.



I knew Stanley was going to be a freak run and jump athlete, but his game appears to be a lot more developed than I expected. I think he'll be in the starting line-up next game and going forward unless he regresses...

Sorry for the nitpick, but Cassius has already started the past two games. Agree that he's been a pleasant surprise and I hope he continues to "play within himself" and be relatively low-usage / opportunistic. We'll need that efficient complementary offensive piece to surround what I project to be the relatively higher-usage Tre, Matthew and (eventually) Vernon.


Conversely, last night's win sets the expectation that this year's team will:

- have lots of growing pains
- be streaky shooters
- have trouble on offense
- will give lots of effort on defense
- can beat really good teams and lose to bad ones
- could win it all (but not a given), or could be a 2nd weekend exit

I think those are completely fair expectations.

We could be a first weekend exit, too. (Didn't want to taunt the basketball gods here.)

HereBeforeCoachK
11-06-2019, 10:30 AM
Not losing to Michigan St in the Elite 8? Not losing to UNC at all?

When you completely decimate a top team like Kentucky, it sets up the mindset that you're going to run the table - fair or not.

I'm not saying last season wasn't a good year - it was. But given the lofty expectations from that Kentucky shellacking, it fell short of where it could have/should have been.

Right, the national consensus after Kentucky was Duke should be in the NBA (okay, most of that was joking, but you get the idea) and that Zion should certainly be in the NBA (that was serious commentary). Some expectations after that game were unrealistic....but even the realistic ones would not have us struggling with UNC and losing to that Michigan State team.

FerryFor50
11-06-2019, 10:33 AM
Sorry for the nitpick, but Cassius has already started the past two games. Agree that he's been a pleasant surprise and I hope he continues to "play within himself" and be relatively low-usage / opportunistic. We'll need that efficient complementary offensive piece to surround what I project to be the relatively higher-usage Tre, Matthew and (eventually) Vernon.



We could be a first weekend exit, too. (Didn't want to taunt the basketball gods here.)

Fair and valid points. :D

Steven43
11-06-2019, 10:35 AM
Bilas takes more criticism than any other commentator on this board. More than his fair share. Go look at the commentator thread from last season - I wager 2/3rds of the posts are Jay related.
It’s solely (as far as I’m concerned) about his (Bilas) commentating, not his commitment to, and love of, Duke University.

SavDukeGrad
11-06-2019, 10:35 AM
Bilas appears in a bunch of the "brotherhood" videos that Duke MBB posts online and has given motivational speeches to our teams before.

There are a few former players like Paulus that don't seem to be in touch anymore (at least in a publicly consumable fashion) but Jay is not one of them.

I largely agree with the criticism of his commentary but not with him being apart from the brotherhood.

Anyone who doubts Jay’s loyalty to Duke and Coach K should watch that documentary on the ACC network “The Class that saved Coach K”. I believe Jay was one of the producers, and he is prominently featured along with all the members of the ‘86 team. It is also a great trip down memory lane for those of us who lived through the 82-86 years.

But I agree with everyone - the way he overcompensates when he is calling a game is maddening. Especially when we have to sit through Kenny Smith every March.

uh_no
11-06-2019, 10:46 AM
Anyone who doubts Jay’s loyalty to Duke and Coach K should watch that documentary on the ACC network “The Class that saved Coach K”. I believe Jay was one of the producers, and he is prominently featured along with all the members of the ‘86 team. It is also a great trip down memory lane for those of us who lived through the 82-86 years.

But I agree with everyone - the way he overcompensates when he is calling a game is maddening. Especially when we have to sit through Kenny Smith every March.

Regardless of his annoying commentary, his treatment of grayson really rubbed me the wrong way. That stepped way over the line of a schtick. Tearing down a player like that is NOT indicative to loyalty to a program, and far beyond what was necessary for whatever role he thinks he needs to portray.

COYS
11-06-2019, 10:48 AM
KU is likely legitimately top-5 but just ran into the worst possible matchup in Game 1 of the season in the form of Tre Jones, the rest of our defense, and Coach K.

Of note: KU actually only had 7 turnovers (pdf) (https://kuathletics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Gamebook.pdf) and 4 turnover(pdf) (https://kuathletics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Box-Score-Pittsburg-St.-at-Kansas-01-November-2.pdf) in their two exhibition games. Those are actually unusually low totals even for exhibitions against weak teams. (Seriously, try to find a team around the country that had lower turnover numbers in their two exhibitions -- you may be searching for awhile.)

I give our defense large credit for the turnovers.





THE question is whether or not generating turnovers like that becomes normal for the team or if it was a fluke. The thing that I was most pleasantly surprised about is how athletic the team is, top to bottom. No, we don't have a single guy like Zion or Marvin who is both hyper-athletic and hyper-skilled, but I'd say that our athleticism is pretty well distributed up and down the roster with perhaps the exception of Vernon. And honestly, this was a good matchup for Vernon on defense because he didn't have to chase anyone along the perimeter. Tre is an on-the-ball beast. Wendell and especially Cassius are strong and quick players with really good size on the wing. Alex has always been a guy who has more athleticism than people give him credit for. And I thought Matthew looked good moving laterally for a guy his size. Javin has a ton of physical tools, of course, and Jack is no slouch either. When J-Gold is locked in, he can be a pest on defense, too. I think in aggregate, our ability to rotate quickly and cover for mistakes surprised Kansas. I think it will surprise a lot of different teams. As the guys hone their defensive rotations, I think there is a lot of room to continue forcing turnovers at a high rate. No, we won't force turnovers on 34% of possessions very often (or possibly ever again this season), but I think there are strong indicators that forcing turnovers will be one of the team's strengths even as the opposition gets more comfortable on the offensive end.

szstark
11-06-2019, 10:50 AM
Anyone who doubts Jay’s loyalty to Duke and Coach K should watch that documentary on the ACC network “The Class that saved Coach K”. I believe Jay was one of the producers, and he is prominently featured along with all the members of the ‘86 team. It is also a great trip down memory lane for those of us who lived through the 82-86 years.

But I agree with everyone - the way he overcompensates when he is calling a game is maddening. Especially when we have to sit through Kenny Smith every March.
How’s this for an idea - can we go one season without talking about the announcers, or at least put those discussions into a separate thread so that those of us who have actually learned to use the mute button don’t have to read through all the whining? These discussions are supposed to be about the game. Just a thought.

azzefkram
11-06-2019, 10:50 AM
A really nice win against a quality opponent. I liked what I saw from pretty much everyone. Wendell seemed to be pressing but the tools seem to be there. I am a bit more optimistic given the defense and some spurts of offense. There is definitely stuff to work on but there is more in the cupboard than I thought.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-06-2019, 10:56 AM
How’s this for an idea - can we go one season without talking about the announcers, or at least put those discussions into a separate thread so that those of us who have actually learned to use the mute button don’t have to read through all the whining? These discussions are supposed to be about the game. Just a thought.

Historically a thread on commentary will show up. It doesn't help in-game and postgame complaining.

robed deity
11-06-2019, 10:59 AM
Sorry for the nitpick, but Cassius has already started the past two games. Agree that he's been a pleasant surprise and I hope he continues to "play within himself" and be relatively low-usage / opportunistic. We'll need that efficient complementary offensive piece to surround what I project to be the relatively higher-usage Tre, Matthew and (eventually) Vernon.



We could be a first weekend exit, too. (Didn't want to taunt the basketball gods here.)

I, for one, am ready for a year where we have good injury and NCAA tournament "luck" (matchups, bounces, poor games at wrong time etc). Seems both of those have gone against Duke in recent years.

Yes, I know, 2015. That was 5 years ago! I'm a spoiled fan, what can I say.

DtrainBuckshot
11-06-2019, 11:00 AM
Maybe I missed it, but wasn't Duke South supposed to be in attendence? I read that JJ was arranging it but didn't see any of them when they showed the NBA "stars" at MSG...

SavDukeGrad
11-06-2019, 11:07 AM
Maybe I missed it, but wasn't Duke South supposed to be in attendence? I read that JJ was arranging it but didn't see any of them when they showed the NBA "stars" at MSG...

The dukembb Instagram account had a crowd shot of Frank and Jah standing and cheering in Duke gear, and JJ and Brandon were sitting in front of them. I guess Zion didn’t make the trip.

killerleft
11-06-2019, 11:16 AM
Hmmm, strange. I would be interested in evidence that he is "very much" in the brotherhood fold. Oh, yeah, he over compensates....and he has been for 20 years. How long of a long game are you playing? I won't hold my fire on him.

If you've seen no evidence that Jay Bilas is very much a member of the Brotherhood, I don't think you'll be convinced by anything now. I, for one, have never doubted his allegiance to Coach K and Duke. It pops up at odd moments, but you have to be looking for it.

But, sure, he deserves plenty of criticism for several reasons. Keep up the good work!:)

CrazyNotCrazie
11-06-2019, 11:23 AM
The dukembb Instagram account had a crowd shot of Frank and Jah standing and cheering in Duke gear, and JJ and Brandon were sitting in front of them. I guess Zion didn’t make the trip.

I was there and didn't see them but others told me they did. There were a ton of former players there last night - some (such as Zoubek) are harder to miss than others. I saw a pair of 7 footers who didn't look to be too far removed from school together and couldn't figure out who they were - definitely not Duke guys but I'm not sure who they were.

UrinalCake
11-06-2019, 11:25 AM
THE question is whether or not generating turnovers like that becomes normal for the team or if it was a fluke.

I think that's a legitimate question. Last season we feasted on turnovers for the first half of the season. Tre at the point of attack, the three wings jumping the passing lanes, and the two best finishers in the country in transition made for a devastating defense. But as the season went on we lost our ability to force these live ball turnovers, culminating in the tournament when the pace naturally slows down and teams protect the ball better.

Two seasons ago we opened the year in a game very similar to the one we just played, beating Michigan State who was ranked #2 or #3 despite Bagley missing most of the game after getting poked in the eye. We played a zone defense the whole game (which we subsequently went away from, until returning to it halfway through the conference season), forced a ton of turnovers, and got a monster game from Grayson. I even remember that Goldwire hit a three and Duval had 10 assists to no turnovers. But again, we couldn't maintain that level of defensive pressure throughout the season.

This season I'm hopeful that we can continue to have an excellent defense even if we're not forcing turnovers. As someone mentioned earlier, the turnovers we created weren't live ball, run-the-other-way types other than a few notable exceptions. It was more like we applied great pressure in the half court and forced Kansas into poor decisions or bad shots. And I think that's a more sustainable formula than relying on runouts and dunks as a huge part of our offense. Fingers crossed.

DukeFanSince1990
11-06-2019, 11:34 AM
https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1192102315844657157


Saw this on Twitter. I thought it was a great breakdown.

dukebluesincebirth
11-06-2019, 11:51 AM
https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1192102315844657157


Saw this on Twitter. I thought it was a great breakdown.

Thanks for sharing. That video used the number and word labels to do an excellent job of showing the defensive movements as the ball moved around the court. I imagine this is the type of video our coaches use with the guys in the film room. A great view of how it all works in unison. And also showed that our team's ability to cover the correct rotations/assignments at given times was solid last night. IMO, this early in the season a sign of a well-coached team, and just as importantly, a coachable group that can listen, learn, and execute in real time on a big stage. I like it.

flyingdutchdevil
11-06-2019, 11:54 AM
https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1192102315844657157


Saw this on Twitter. I thought it was a great breakdown.

Look at Stanley in both clips. That is incredible defensive IQ for a freshman. He rotated at the right times in the first video and made a very smart calculated risk in the second video.

I don't know if this was luck on his end, but I really hope to see that continue.

simplyluvin
11-06-2019, 11:58 AM
When Tre got that shooter’s bounce with a minute left after the shot hit every part of the rim, was I the only one thinking how much I would have liked to have that happen two seasons ago?

I know it doesn't exactly apply, but I would have liked to have seen that in our last game last year. That would have been a much easier path to the title. I don't think two years ago we beat Villanova had GA's shot gone in and we advance.

rsvman
11-06-2019, 12:25 PM
A win is a win.

Having said that, I agree with an earlier poster who said that it was hard to imagine who the "go-to guy" was going to be coming down the stretch. To make matters worse, Coach K subbed out Matthew Hurt for Jordan Goldwire with about a minute 45 or two minutes left.

To me that was a clear message that he decided we had come that far with defense, and we were going to win the game with defense. Fine and good, but when we got the ball, I seriously wondered if there was a plan for scoring!

I am hoping that the D will stay strong and that the O will improve over the course of the season. The team has potential, for sure, and a lot of good players, which gives the coaching staff a lot of options.

kAzE
11-06-2019, 01:06 PM
There were definitely more positives than negatives to take away from this game, but one critical area for improvement that I haven't seen too many people talk about is Vernon Carey's defense (FlyingDutchDevil briefly mentioned it).

To be clear, I thought Vernon played well for his first college game. His two 3 pointers were huge, and he did an admirable job containing KU's bigs when he was matched up with them in the low post.

However, there were at least 4-5 occasions where his lack of mobility (or awareness) really hurt us. He got caught napping on those backdoor cuts, and even a couple of drives right down the middle, where it was his responsibility to help, but instead gave up wide open layups. He also failed to hustle back in transition at one point, and gave up a wide open dunk to Azubuike.

I think Coach K would have preferred to play Javin more minutes for his defense, but Javin was in a lot foul trouble (as usual), and got banged up on that one play where he blocked the shot and landed awkwardly. So I give Vernon a lot of credit for being able to handle those minutes and finish the game with just 1 turnover and 3 fouls. I understand that he has physical limitations, but I just hope he can improve his foot movement on defense going forward. Some of it is just his body type and lacking elite athleticism, but there has to be a little bit more effort there IMO.

TeacherTom
11-06-2019, 01:16 PM
There were definitely more positives than negatives to take away from this game, but one critical area for improvement that I haven't seen too many people talk about is Vernon Carey's defense (FlyingDutchDevil briefly mentioned it).

To be clear, I thought Vernon played well for his first college game. His two 3 pointers were huge, and he did an admirable job containing KU's bigs when he was matched up with them in the low post.

However, there were at least 4-5 occasions where his lack of mobility (or awareness) really hurt us. He got caught napping on those backdoor cuts, and even a couple of drives right down the middle, where it was his responsibility to help, but instead gave up wide open layups. He also failed to hustle back in transition at one point, and gave up a wide open dunk to Azubuike.

I think Coach K would have preferred to play Javin more minutes for his defense, but Javin was in a lot foul trouble (as usual), and got banged up on that one play where he blocked the shot and landed awkwardly. So I give Vernon a lot of credit for being able to handle those minutes and finish the game with just 1 turnover and 3 fouls. I understand that he has physical limitations, but I just hope he can improve his foot movement on defense going forward. Some of it is just his body type and lacking elite athleticism, but there has to be a little bit more effort there IMO.


I wish teams would leave us open lanes the size of the ones last night. I'm so tired today. I couldn't sleep because of extreme excitement. Those young men played their hearts out.

CDu
11-06-2019, 01:25 PM
Not losing to Michigan St in the Elite 8? Not losing to UNC at all?

When you completely decimate a top team like Kentucky, it sets up the mindset that you're going to run the table - fair or not.

I'm not saying last season wasn't a good year - it was. But given the lofty expectations from that Kentucky shellacking, it fell short of where it could have/should have been.

To be fair, we probably don't lose to UNC at all if Zion doesn't get hurt. And, correspondingly, if Zion doesn't get hurt, we probably don't face MSU in the Elite 8.

We were a juggernaut when healthy last year. We just weren't healthy very much once ACC play rolled around: Tre Jones, then Zion, then Cam and White all got hurt. And we didn't have the depth to withstand injuries, especially not to our best player.

SouthernDukie
11-06-2019, 01:34 PM
To be fair, we probably don't lose to UNC at all if Zion doesn't get hurt. And, correspondingly, if Zion doesn't get hurt, we probably don't face MSU in the Elite 8.

We were a juggernaut when healthy last year. We just weren't healthy very much once ACC play rolled around: Tre Jones, then Zion, then Cam and White all got hurt. And we didn't have the depth to withstand injuries, especially not to our best player.

For sure. And I'm not looking to start up an old argument, but I'll stick by my contention that Tre's injury is when we began to lose steam and that we never got back to where we were previous to that injury.

kako
11-06-2019, 01:35 PM
I disagree on point number 2. Tre was much more prominent last night than on last year’s team. He was in charge. I don’t think we’ll see Tre standing in the corner unguarded this year. The offense is going through him. I think he will become more efficient as he gets comfortable with his teammates. On a couple of his drives there was no movement without the ball by his teammates. I think guys will learn to find their spots on the court for Trey to find them. There’s no RJ, and Cam this year so Trey will be in the driver seat all year.

I was talking more about his scoring, but I hope you are right. The motion will get better. But I think unless JGold changes, the D will be letting him stand in the corner, unguarded, instead. I'm a JGold fan, but player really needs to be some kind of scoring threat (either driving or shooting). And I'm also hoping Jones finds his shot (maybe hitting that go ahead mid-range shot, bouncing with a shooter's touch, will boost his confidence... just like his brother's big shots boosted his). Otherwise, I fear we will be hoping for the D to lead to O all the time, kind of like a Cinci team.

9F

Kfanarmy
11-06-2019, 01:44 PM
How’s this for an idea - can we go one season without talking about the announcers, or at least put those discussions into a separate thread so that those of us who have actually learned to use the mute button don’t have to read through all the whining? These discussions are supposed to be about the game. Just a thought.

or maybe just skip over discussion about the announcers in the post-game thread, kind of like a visual mute button; after all, the announcers are a part of the game watching experience for most.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-06-2019, 01:46 PM
or maybe just skip over discussion about the announcers in the post-game thread, kind of like a visual mute button; after all, the announcers are a part of the game watching experience for most.

That's what I do with the minutes threads. Not my cup of tea, bickering over hypothetical PT scenarios.

accfanfrom1970
11-06-2019, 02:00 PM
I was talking more about his scoring, but I hope you are right. The motion will get better. But I think unless JGold changes, the D will be letting him stand in the corner, unguarded, instead. I'm a JGold fan, but player really needs to be some kind of scoring threat (either driving or shooting). And I'm also hoping Jones finds his shot (maybe hitting that go ahead mid-range shot, bouncing with a shooter's touch, will boost his confidence... just like his brother's big shots boosted his). Otherwise, I fear we will be hoping for the D to lead to O all the time, kind of like a Cinci team.

9F

I was really surprised at the lack of pressure from Goldwire. I didn’t see much aggressiveness, and he got beat on the backside several times. He didn’t make good decisions with the ball, and was a non-factor in the offense. Really thought and hoped he would take the next step, maybe just jitters in the garden. I felt like Stanley, Hurt, Carey, Jack, Alex and Jones met or exceeded expectations. Felt like Javin and Moore and Goldwire struggled. Glad it was a win and glad it’s only game one. Lots of time for them all to improve.

elvis14
11-06-2019, 02:04 PM
How’s this for an idea - can we go one season without talking about the announcers, or at least put those discussions into a separate thread so that those of us who have actually learned to use the mute button don’t have to read through all the whining? These discussions are supposed to be about the game. Just a thought.

The answer to your question is "no". It's unfortunate that you feel the need to characterize the discussion as whining. If you feel the need to use the mute button, you're missing out on the proper game experience. If you feel you have to use the mute button because of the announcers, then the announcers have failed miserably and robbed you of the proper game experience. It's part of the game so it's OK to discuss it in the post game thread.

There are 2 times that you don't want to listen to Jay Bilas. First is when he's talking about Duke and UNCheat on an ESPN game or pre/post game show (acts like he hates us, loves cheaters even though we know it's not true). The second time is when he starts blathering on about the NCAA (he hates the NCAA and his whining on that front is old especially considering how he's made a living all these years).

Troublemaker
11-06-2019, 02:10 PM
THE question is whether or not generating turnovers like that becomes normal for the team or if it was a fluke. The thing that I was most pleasantly surprised about is how athletic the team is, top to bottom. No, we don't have a single guy like Zion or Marvin who is both hyper-athletic and hyper-skilled, but I'd say that our athleticism is pretty well distributed up and down the roster with perhaps the exception of Vernon. And honestly, this was a good matchup for Vernon on defense because he didn't have to chase anyone along the perimeter. Tre is an on-the-ball beast. Wendell and especially Cassius are strong and quick players with really good size on the wing. Alex has always been a guy who has more athleticism than people give him credit for. And I thought Matthew looked good moving laterally for a guy his size. Javin has a ton of physical tools, of course, and Jack is no slouch either. When J-Gold is locked in, he can be a pest on defense, too. I think in aggregate, our ability to rotate quickly and cover for mistakes surprised Kansas. I think it will surprise a lot of different teams. As the guys hone their defensive rotations, I think there is a lot of room to continue forcing turnovers at a high rate. No, we won't force turnovers on 34% of possessions very often (or possibly ever again this season), but I think there are strong indicators that forcing turnovers will be one of the team's strengths even as the opposition gets more comfortable on the offensive end.

Forcing turnovers will definitely be one of our strengths, but I'll stick with there being diminishing returns as the season progresses. Not only will opposing offenses become more cohesive later on, but this right now will be the most athletic, fresh, and healthy Duke will be all season. We're going to accumulate nicks and bumps along the way, and if Tre is going to play 39 minutes in competitive games, March Tre is going to be, say, 10% less effective on defense than November Tre.

Bottom line, we're going to need to get a heck of a lot better on offense.

One more "November effect" that I can think of is that opposing coaches are more concerned early in the season about establishing their identity than opponent-specific gameplanning. Self was clearly stubborn about playing two bigs together; I don't think our 4s (Matthew and Jack) scored a single point when guarded by a wing. Given how close the game was, the 14 points they scored on McCormack were key.

Steven43
11-06-2019, 02:20 PM
How’s this for an idea - can we go one season without talking about the announcers, or at least put those discussions into a separate thread so that those of us who have actually learned to use the mute button don’t have to read through all the whining? These discussions are supposed to be about the game. Just a thought.
So you complain about others’ whining (as you referred to it) with whining of your own? Perhaps it’s not your place to tell other posters what these discussions are “supposed to be about”. Just a thought.

Troublemaker
11-06-2019, 02:23 PM
There were definitely more positives than negatives to take away from this game, but one critical area for improvement that I haven't seen too many people talk about is Vernon Carey's defense (FlyingDutchDevil briefly mentioned it).

To be clear, I thought Vernon played well for his first college game. His two 3 pointers were huge, and he did an admirable job containing KU's bigs when he was matched up with them in the low post.

However, there were at least 4-5 occasions where his lack of mobility (or awareness) really hurt us. He got caught napping on those backdoor cuts, and even a couple of drives right down the middle, where it was his responsibility to help, but instead gave up wide open layups. He also failed to hustle back in transition at one point, and gave up a wide open dunk to Azubuike.

I think Coach K would have preferred to play Javin more minutes for his defense, but Javin was in a lot foul trouble (as usual), and got banged up on that one play where he blocked the shot and landed awkwardly. So I give Vernon a lot of credit for being able to handle those minutes and finish the game with just 1 turnover and 3 fouls. I understand that he has physical limitations, but I just hope he can improve his foot movement on defense going forward. Some of it is just his body type and lacking elite athleticism, but there has to be a little bit more effort there IMO.

The two backdoor cuts in that KU horns set were just JGold losing his man. There may have been weakside rotation expected there, but Vernon was strongside on those plays.

You know, overall, and maybe it's because I came in with low expectations for his D, but Vernon has played better than I projected on that side. He's reacting pretty quickly and getting his hands on balls (blocks/steals) more than I expected. He's done okay on that side so far, imo.

uh_no
11-06-2019, 02:34 PM
I was really surprised at the lack of pressure from Goldwire. I didn’t see much aggressiveness, and he got beat on the backside several times. He didn’t make good decisions with the ball, and was a non-factor in the offense. Really thought and hoped he would take the next step, maybe just jitters in the garden. I felt like Stanley, Hurt, Carey, Jack, Alex and Jones met or exceeded expectations. Felt like Javin and Moore and Goldwire struggled. Glad it was a win and glad it’s only game one. Lots of time for them all to improve.

The fact that he's starting and seeing double digits means he's at least showing leadership in practice, which ought be expected of an upper classman....but he's often been pumped up a bit here incommensurate with what he's ever really shown on the court. Last year was the perfect example where after Tre went down, everyone was sure he would start at point and play big minutes ("confirmed" by a zion tweet asking people to follow goldwire). Of course none of it ever materialized.

I want him to succeed, and it would be great if he could, but I haven't seen anything in his time here that makes me think he'll do more than give minutes. That said, someone is going to have to step up to fill that fifth spot, but right now it looks to me that jack and alex, and even javin are a head above, though it's not hard when you are an assist and 3pa from a 13-trillion.

For better or worse, it seems we know what we're getting from javin.

I loved what I'm seeing from hurt....it's like a senior plumlee almost. Would like to see a bit more aggressiveness for carey, especially on the boards.

The team is very very raw. There is a lot of room for improvement. Should be exciting to watch.

Edouble
11-06-2019, 02:45 PM
He (Carey) got caught napping on those backdoor cuts, and even a couple of drives right down the middle, where it was his responsibility to help, but instead gave up wide open layups. He also failed to hustle back in transition at one point, and gave up a wide open dunk to Azubuike.


The two backdoor cuts in that KU horns set were just JGold losing his man. There may have been weakside rotation expected there, but Vernon was strongside on those plays.

Kaze... I don't understand how you can blame Vernon for those backdoors either. Jordan cleaned up his ball-you-man (or something) and the backdoors stopped. Are you saying Vernon wasn't communicating from the post? I agree that Hurt was in position for weak side help.

I mean, maybe someone like Zion, Bagley, or Brand would have slid over and blocked Agbaji, but it's hard for me to give the majority of the blame to Vernon.

UrinalCake
11-06-2019, 02:55 PM
Kaze... I don't understand how you can blame Vernon for those backdoors either.

I thought Carey was sagging off of his man and not really applying any pressure, making it an easy pass to the cutter. In high school Carey is probably not accustomed to staying up on his man at the top of the key, but that's an adjustment he'll have to make. Not his *fault* per se, but he could have done better.

Overall I thought Carey's defense was fine given that he was playing against a huge, strong, experienced front line. He does get caught out of position a lot but that's to be expected this early.

FerryFor50
11-06-2019, 03:05 PM
I thought Carey was sagging off of his man and not really applying any pressure, making it an easy pass to the cutter. In high school Carey is probably not accustomed to staying up on his man at the top of the key, but that's an adjustment he'll have to make. Not his *fault* per se, but he could have done better.

Overall I thought Carey's defense was fine given that he was playing against a huge, strong, experienced front line. He does get caught out of position a lot but that's to be expected this early.

Luckily for him (and Duke), it was also a very one dimensional front line. They basically weren't threats to score unless they were right under the basket, and even then, there was no guarantee they wouldn't turn it over. Add in the fact that they didn't really have a real PG that I saw and the constant post double teams and you can see why they didn't get a ton of production out of the post.

uh_no
11-06-2019, 03:08 PM
I thought Carey was sagging off of his man and not really applying any pressure, making it an easy pass to the cutter. In high school Carey is probably not accustomed to staying up on his man at the top of the key, but that's an adjustment he'll have to make. Not his *fault* per se, but he could have done better.

Overall I thought Carey's defense was fine given that he was playing against a huge, strong, experienced front line. He does get caught out of position a lot but that's to be expected this early.

azibuike and mccormack were both in foul trouble and hurt and carey weren't is all i'm sayin'.

There will be some adjustment to not having backstop-zion for the some of the returning guys.

Neals384
11-06-2019, 03:36 PM
Watching pal posed a PTI like question before the game: which is more likely, Joey B making two threes, or not getting in the game at all (the box score lists him with zero minutes, did he make a brief appearance at the end)?

Obviously for the time being at least, defense is required.

The box score does list Baker with 0+ minutes, and the play-by-play from goduke shows him entering the game at 12:02 of the first half and subbing out 19 seconds later at the under 12 timeout. That is incorrect - I checked the video and he was not in the game. K might want to have the record corrected, just in case Baker decides to redshirt (not that it's at all likely). Not only that but that 19 seconds totally messes up our minutes contest!

flyingdutchdevil
11-06-2019, 03:41 PM
The box score does list Baker with 0+ minutes, and the play-by-play from goduke shows him entering the game at 12:02 of the first half and subbing out 19 seconds later at the under 12 timeout. That is incorrect - I checked the video and he was not in the game. K might want to have the record corrected, just in case Baker decides to redshirt (not that it's at all likely). Not only that but that 19 seconds totally messes up our minutes contest!

HAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA

Sorry. Couldn't resist.

mr. synellinden
11-06-2019, 03:42 PM
The Javin you see now is probably the Javin we have for rest of season.

Maybe. Or maybe his lightbulb will go on sometime during this season like it did for Zoubek in his senior season. Yes, injuries were a factor with Zoubek but there are other examples of big men who didn’t put it all together until late in their careers - Alaa Abdelnaby is another one that comes to mind. Even Chris Carrawell had senior year leap. It happens. Not ready to give up on Javin being more than what we saw tonight. I still think he can be Michigan St. Javin.

We’ll see.

flyingdutchdevil
11-06-2019, 03:45 PM
Maybe. Or maybe his lightbulb will go on sometime during this season like it did for Zoubek in his senior season. Yes, injuries were a factor with Zoubek but there are other examples of big men who didn’t put it all together until late in their careers - Alaa Abdelnaby is another one that comes to mind. Even Chris Carrawell had senior year leap. It happens. Not ready to give up on Javin being more than what we saw tonight. I still think he can be Michigan St. Javin.

We’ll see.

No one is giving up on Javin. He's got value, especially given Vernon is our only other 5 and Javin has, at minimum, 5 hard fouls to give (okay, semi-hard fouls). We're just arguing that Javin is who he is: a super opportunistic scorer who can score within 5 feet of the basket, defend well, offer some protection, provide some leadership, and give 5 fouls. He isn't a rebounding savant and he isn't going to post frequent double-doubles. And that's okay.

DukieInBrasil
11-06-2019, 03:52 PM
I’m more comfortable with Jack on the floor than Javin. The time for Javin “working on finishing strong and not fouling” has probably elapsed as a senior. The Javin you see now is probably the Javin we have for rest of season. We need him to play hard, which he does, and give us 10-15 minutes a game. I just think Jack gives us more.


Maybe. Or maybe his lightbulb will go on sometime during this season like it did for Zoubek in his senior season. Yes, injuries were a factor with Zoubek but there are other examples of big men who didn’t put it all together until late in their careers - Alaa Abdelnaby is another one that comes to mind. Even Chris Carrawell had senior year leap. It happens. Not ready to give up on Javin being more than what we saw tonight. I still think he can be Michigan St. Javin.

We’ll see.

I like the way Javin plays for the most part. Being smarter about how to use the fouls he has would increase his utility. However, the thing that would increase his value the most would be to go strong to the rim when he gets the ball, instead of dribbling, pump-faking or just waiting to see what happens, as he has up til now. He's not the best athlete on the floor, but he's far above average even for NCAA, and he could put a lot of pressure on the opposing defense by just going strong to the rim. He's not a great FT shooter, but still, collecting fouls on the other team has benefits. He does the opposing defense a great favor by bringing the ball down so much. If he could correct that, he'd bring more value to the team. (a similar critique can be made for J-White, that his 3pt shooting would improve a lot by not bringing the ball down when he catches it to shoot)

TheOldBattleship
11-06-2019, 04:29 PM
Sorry for the nitpick, but Cassius has already started the past two games. Agree that he's been a pleasant surprise and I hope he continues to "play within himself" and be relatively low-usage / opportunistic. We'll need that efficient complementary offensive piece to surround what I project to be the relatively higher-usage Tre, Matthew and (eventually) Vernon.

I actually wouldn't mind seeing Stanley stretch himself a bit (especially early on here in the noncon part of the season) and get some possessions as a primary creator. We don't have a ton of guys soaking up possessions as clear and obvious creators this year, just Tre (agree that the freshman bigs should continue to develop into guys who can just go and get themselves buckets, too, but that's always slightly more complicated with bigs than with guards/wings). Goldwire does some nice things getting us into sets and running the offense, as well (last night aside), but it would be really fantastic if Stanley could eat a few possessions running a pick and roll, say. Would really relieve some of the load on Jones if Stanley could stretch himself a bit beyond what he's already good at with a super low usage.

Of course, might be that he's just not quite skilled enough/cut out for that greater role at this point. That would be fine, but it would be nice to at least test the idea early on!

NSDukeFan
11-06-2019, 05:13 PM
How dare you! Jay is never wrong.
I believe you meant to say never in doubt.

When Tre got that shooter’s bounce with a minute left after the shot hit every part of the rim, was I the only one thinking how much I would have liked to have that happen two seasons ago?
You are definitely not the only one.

I’m more comfortable with Jack on the floor than Javin. The time for Javin “working on finishing strong and not fouling” has probably elapsed as a senior. The Javin you see now is probably the Javin we have for rest of season. We need him to play hard, which he does, and give us 10-15 minutes a game. I just think Jack gives us more.
I very rarely believe that a 21,22 year old basketball player has reached their limit as an improving player. That’s one reason I so enjoy several year players. They always have the chance to improve.

I thought Carey was sagging off of his man and not really applying any pressure, making it an easy pass to the cutter. In high school Carey is probably not accustomed to staying up on his man at the top of the key, but that's an adjustment he'll have to make. Not his *fault* per se, but he could have done better.

Overall I thought Carey's defense was fine given that he was playing against a huge, strong, experienced front line. He does get caught out of position a lot but that's to be expected this early.
I also thought Carey’s defence was fine and that he looked like a big presence contesting shots. He also looked to me like he has big strong mitts when grabbing rebounds. He also looked to me like he was taking the ball strong inside on offense. I am going to enjoy watching him play this year.

Maybe. Or maybe his lightbulb will go on sometime during this season like it did for Zoubek in his senior season. Yes, injuries were a factor with Zoubek but there are other examples of big men who didn’t put it all together until late in their careers - Alaa Abdelnaby is another one that comes to mind. Even Chris Carrawell had senior year leap. It happens. Not ready to give up on Javin being more than what we saw tonight. I still think he can be Michigan St. Javin.

We’ll see.
I am looking forward to a big year from Javin as well. I don’t have a problem wit Duke getting the best available players, but I enjoy seeing improvements year over year. Go upperclassmen! I have enjoyed cheering for you.

Great to start the year off with a big win.

I share the concerns about being able to generate turnovers later in the year where offenses are better, but hopefully we will see lots of improvements in all the other areas Kedsy listed.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-06-2019, 05:28 PM
I am looking forward to a big year from Javin as well.

Prepare to be disappointed.

CajunDevil
11-06-2019, 05:29 PM
I haven't read the entire thread so I'm sure some of my observations will have already been mentioned. But here are my thoughts:

1. I was impressed with Carey's quick hands (was able to get a hand on few balls which led to turnovers). It was uncanny.
2. I was also impressed with Carey's abilitiy to get leverage, power his right shoulder past his man then get to the rim, especially against that big front line... and in his first game. He will be a force as the year goes by.
3. We have the pieces to be very good on offense, not Duke vs UK one year ago today good, but still... it will take time, however.
4. Before the game the announcers mentioned our D wasn't talking much... and I heard that somewhere else too. Perhaps they need to work on that, but, it was very good defensive performance for a first game. Jack was extraordinary. Hurt and Carey competed. Tre was Tre - although Dotson got him a couple of times on blow-bys. Goldwire got caught napping on the back doors. Overall great effort on that end...
5. Stanley looks only an inch or two taller than Tre. That makes his hops that much more impressive.
6. Grit. Down 9... we didn't panic. Carey stepped out and nailed a 3, then Hurt (I think)...
7. Kudos to Tre. He was clutch- the jumper with the roll, and four free throws to seal it.

Duke76
11-06-2019, 05:57 PM
This

Stanley might end up being the highest drafted player from this team.

he might be but for sure he will be the highest jumper on the team this yr

Nugget
11-06-2019, 06:02 PM
https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1192102315844657157


Saw this on Twitter. I thought it was a great breakdown.

As others have noted before, Jordan Sperber is really doing great work, both with his website/twitter feed and his podcast, in communicating the nuts and bolts of what's going on in a very understandable way for us lay-people.

Duke76
11-06-2019, 06:10 PM
He’s obviously a great leaper but his quickness on D is just as impressive. Someone described him as twitchy fast after the last game. It’s true. And fun to watch.

I know people are comparing him to Henderson....but other than the fact that he can jump higher....he is the spittin imagine of Rodney Hood, imo

soflabluedevil
11-06-2019, 06:23 PM
Prepare to be disappointed.

he can do some things needed on defense (mostly minutes as sub for Carey and fouls to give) but that is it. He literally cannot score from more than 1 foot, and when he tries he misses or gets blocked or loses ball 50% or more of the time. In sum he is not a basketball payer-he is an athletic guy who is on the basketball court.

Saratoga2
11-06-2019, 06:27 PM
I’m more comfortable with Jack on the floor than Javin. The time for Javin “working on finishing strong and not fouling” has probably elapsed as a senior. The Javin you see now is probably the Javin we have for rest of season. We need him to play hard, which he does, and give us 10-15 minutes a game. I just think Jack gives us more.

I agree with this as Javin is one of those guys who has not made the progress one would hope for. He is athletic and has size, so is an essential part of the team. He won't give us a lot on offense and Jack, being a heady player seems more valuable and probably will command more minutes.

soflabluedevil
11-06-2019, 06:28 PM
Conversely, last night's win sets the expectation that this year's team will:

- have lots of growing pains
- be streaky shooters
- have trouble on offense
- will give lots of effort on defense
- can beat really good teams and lose to bad ones
- could win it all (but not a given), or could be a 2nd weekend exit

I think those are completely fair expectations.

Fair assessment, but this team has a very large upside potential in Carey, Hurt, Stanley, and O'Connell. It would be nice if (for the first time in a long time) if this team plays its best in March.

Duke76
11-06-2019, 06:32 PM
This is far too fantastic not to post...

9928

that about sums it up, season's over, I'm satisfied

uh_no
11-06-2019, 06:51 PM
Fair assessment, but this team has a very large upside potential in Carey, Hurt, Stanley, and O'Connell. It would be nice if (for the first time in a long time) if this team plays its best in March.

Yeah we're in for a ride. Last year we knew we had 2+ NBA ready players, and they largely delivered. This year will be incredibly different. I was largely happy with how well they defended last night and hope that continues.

So much opportunity to take over this team yet.

Saratoga2
11-06-2019, 06:52 PM
Fair assessment, but this team has a very large upside potential in Carey, Hurt, Stanley, and O'Connell. It would be nice if (for the first time in a long time) if this team plays its best in March.

Yes, Carey, Hurt and Stanley showed signs of having the potential to improve a lot offensively. I am not so sure about O'Connell. He is probably close to 6'6" and is clearly more strongly built and has quickness and hops. He also shows an ability to shoot at times. With those characteristics, and experience, I would expect him to be able to create his own shot and be a offensive threat. Instead, I see a guy that disappears at times and doesn't create off the bounce.Keep hoping for him to demonstrate a consistent offensive game. After this long in the program I expect more from him.

UrinalCake
11-06-2019, 06:52 PM
The box score does list Baker with 0+ minutes, and the play-by-play from goduke shows him entering the game at 12:02 of the first half and subbing out 19 seconds later at the under 12 timeout. That is incorrect -

Maybe the scorekeepers got confused when Joey Beard went into the game.

uh_no
11-06-2019, 07:10 PM
Yes, Carey, Hurt and Stanley showed signs of having the potential to improve a lot offensively. I am not so sure about O'Connell. He is probably close to 6'6" and is clearly more strongly built and has quickness and hops. He also shows an ability to shoot at times. With those characteristics, and experience, I would expect him to be able to create his own shot and be a offensive threat. Instead, I see a guy that disappears at times and doesn't create off the bounce.Keep hoping for him to demonstrate a consistent offensive game. After this long in the program I expect more from him.

I'll disagree. I thought he was very aggressive at times and wasn't a liability on defense. He didn't shoot as well from 3, sure, but he had a couple of good drives into the lane and had 4 boards, 2 assists, and 3 steals. He didn't come anywhere near that well rounded of a game in any "A" game last year.

I'm not writing home yet. It's the first game of the season and everyone is raw. But I think it's wrong to write him off after what wasn't a bad performance. It looked to me he knows how to contribute on court with the players around him and I look forward to more of that going forward.

Pghdukie
11-06-2019, 07:35 PM
Dont say that K has already used up Joey Bakers redshirt ?

uh_no
11-06-2019, 07:43 PM
Dont say that K has already used up Joey Bakers redshirt ?

nah. he can toss it in the wash and use it again next week.

devildeac
11-06-2019, 09:39 PM
Maybe the scorekeepers got confused when Joey Beard went into the game.

Some of us also were confused when Azubuike committed his 10th foul but had only been charged with 4. :rolleyes::mad:

UrinalCake
11-06-2019, 10:01 PM
4. Before the game the announcers mentioned our D wasn't talking much... and I heard that somewhere else too.

In the post-game press conference K said that when Kansas made that 13-0 run around the start of the second half, our defense had stopped talking. So that was addressed during the timeout.


7. Kudos to Tre. He was clutch- the jumper with the roll, and four free throws to seal it.

This cannot be overstated. If he goes 1-4 from the line - which was something that happened on a number of occasions last season by varying players - then Kansas's meaningless banked-in three becomes the game winner. Which obviously wouldn't have played out the same way, but you get my point.

Kedsy
11-07-2019, 12:57 AM
He literally cannot score from more than 1 foot, and when he tries he misses or gets blocked or loses ball 50% or more of the time.

Last season, Javin shot 75% from the floor, so I'm pretty sure your math is way off.

Also, while Javin took very few jumpers last season, he shot 60% on the two-point jumpers he did take. Which means your definition of "literally" is also incorrect.

Kedsy
11-07-2019, 01:42 AM
So, like I said, good thing we were so amazing at forcing turnovers because we didn't do much else at a high level. If future opponents can hold onto the ball better than Kansas, we're going to have to improve on both sides of the ball.

So I went back and analyzed how our defense fared in possessions in which we did not turn them over. In those possessions, Kansas scored 1.27 points per possession.

To put that in perspective, that points per possession on non-turnover defensive possessions would have been our eighth worst performance of last season. Among the seven games which were worse than this one were our loss to Gonzaga, our loss @VaTech, our 2 pt win @Florida State, our 1 pt win over Central Florida in the NCAAT, and our 2 pt win over VaTech in the NCAAT. So our performance in possessions in which we did not turn Kansas over is not in very good company.

bigperm13
11-07-2019, 03:01 AM
The meltdowns when Duke loses this year are going to be delicious.

Indoor66
11-07-2019, 07:35 AM
So I went back and analyzed how our defense fared in possessions in which we did not turn them over. In those possessions, Kansas scored 1.27 points per possession.

To put that in perspective, that points per possession on non-turnover defensive possessions would have been our eighth worst performance of last season. Among the seven games which were worse than this one were our loss to Gonzaga, our loss @VaTech, our 2 pt win @Florida State, our 1 pt win over Central Florida in the NCAAT, and our 2 pt win over VaTech in the NCAAT. So our performance in possessions in which we did not turn Kansas over is not in very good company.

The IF'S again. Unfortunately for your stats, that is NOT what happened. If they do not make the turnovers, the flow of the game is completely different. The results may have differed but your analysis might have had some meaning.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
11-07-2019, 07:50 AM
The IF'S again. Unfortunately for your stats, that is NOT what happened. If they do not make the turnovers, the flow of the game is completely different. The results may have differed but your analysis might have had some meaning.

Agreed. You can't reverse-account for players being out of position gambling for turnovers based on the fact that KU was turning the ball over at a remarkable rate, possibly leading to easy buckets.

I know there's nothing more anecdotal than the eye test, but our defense looked really good last night - especially for early November, especially for a very young team, especially given how we've struggled on defense in recent seasons.

lotusland
11-07-2019, 08:10 AM
Very different players. McRoberts had insane handles for a big and could go coast to coast in three dribbles. Vernon is huge compared to Josh (+30 lbs).

I'd say Carey is much more like Carter, a more traditional big with an outside shot, than McRoberts, more of a position-less big with an all around stat-sheet-stuffer kind of game. But I don't think that Carey's game is much like Carter's either.

The only thing they have in common, IMHO, is that they both shoot threes.



Yes, Jay was his usual self last night, but where was other Jay? Has he been replaced by LaPhonso?

I see that Jay now works on NBA Countdown, The Jump and Get Up. Doe that mean he is done with NCAA/Gameday stuff?

My memory of McBob was that he was a poor and reluctant perimeter shooter. Not much of a 3 point threat at all and defenders left him open and dared him to shoot. With his handles he would have been unstoppable in college with a reliable enough jump shot to keep the defense honest. Ditto for Shav although his shot looked good but rimmed out too often.

uh_no
11-07-2019, 09:16 AM
So I went back and analyzed how our defense fared in possessions in which we did not turn them over. In those possessions, Kansas scored 1.27 points per possession.

To put that in perspective, that points per possession on non-turnover defensive possessions would have been our eighth worst performance of last season. Among the seven games which were worse than this one were our loss to Gonzaga, our loss @VaTech, our 2 pt win @Florida State, our 1 pt win over Central Florida in the NCAAT, and our 2 pt win over VaTech in the NCAAT. So our performance in possessions in which we did not turn Kansas over is not in very good company.

I think this has to be put in context, and I think some people are going a bit overboard in picking apart what you said.

Obvioulsy we forced a lot of turnovers, and this can compromise possessessions where we didn't, making them look worse in a vacuum. That said, it's still reasonable to say that even given the turnovers, there are a lot of things we can do better on defense, and despite the overall performance, there is still a lot to work on.

Ultimately it depends on how you view the turnovers. If you think the turnovers were something we forced kansas into, gambling and giving up buckets in other possessions, perhaps taking advantage of expected early season sloppiness on KUs part, then it was a brilliant game plan and a huge part of why we won the game. If you think the turnovers can be more attributed to KUs sloppiness, and not something that should have compromised other possessions, then your numbers at face value are troubling.

I can't say I know for sure on which side of the line I sit, so it's definitely somewhere in the middle. I think we were aggressive, I think KU was also sloppy. I think we have the personnel to force a lot of turnovers, like last year, but that's also not something to depend on in all cases, as we'll come across times when the opponent is especially crisp, and we'll have to stop them anyway.

phaedrus
11-07-2019, 09:21 AM
So I went back and analyzed how our defense fared in possessions in which we did not turn them over. In those possessions, Kansas scored 1.27 points per possession.

To put that in perspective, that points per possession on non-turnover defensive possessions would have been our eighth worst performance of last season. Among the seven games which were worse than this one were our loss to Gonzaga, our loss @VaTech, our 2 pt win @Florida State, our 1 pt win over Central Florida in the NCAAT, and our 2 pt win over VaTech in the NCAAT. So our performance in possessions in which we did not turn Kansas over is not in very good company.

You would need to compare the ppp on non-turnover possessions with the same stat for other games, not with the overall ppp for those games (if that's what you did, ignore this).

Edouble
11-07-2019, 10:53 AM
My memory of McBob was that he was a poor and reluctant perimeter shooter. Not much of a 3 point threat at all and defenders left him open and dared him to shoot. With his handles he would have been unstoppable in college with a reliable enough jump shot to keep the defense honest. Ditto for Shav although his shot looked good but rimmed out too often.

Wow, you are right. Josh didn't shoot threes.

OK, so the one small part of the comparison that I gave credit for, I take back. Vernon and Josh are completely different players.

DukieInBrasil
11-07-2019, 11:09 AM
My memory of McBob was that he was a poor and reluctant perimeter shooter. Not much of a 3 point threat at all and defenders left him open and dared him to shoot. With his handles he would have been unstoppable in college with a reliable enough jump shot to keep the defense honest. Ditto for Shav although his shot looked good but rimmed out too often.


Wow, you are right. Josh didn't shoot threes.

OK, so the one small part of the comparison that I gave credit for, I take back. Vernon and Josh are completely different players.

McBobs came to Duke with a rep for being a 3shooting big, but while at Duke he was pretty mediocre to poor at it. He became a reasonably proficient 3pt shooter in the NBA, though not a prolific one.
As a whole, i would not equate McBobs' game with Carey's. Carey to me seems much more similar to WCjr, with perhaps a touch of a less bruising Boozer. Both of those guys made it to the NBA, and one had an immensely successful career, so it may be a bit early to get too giddy, but after (checks notes) 1 game, i can confidently say that Carey is exactly like that :p:cool:

Kedsy
11-07-2019, 11:23 AM
You would need to compare the ppp on non-turnover possessions with the same stat for other games, not with the overall ppp for those games (if that's what you did, ignore this).

Yes, of course. And that is what I did.

Which is why I think the criticism by Indoor66 and Mtn.Devil is a little off base.

Kedsy
11-07-2019, 11:47 AM
The results may have differed but your analysis might have had some meaning.

How about this: it is generally agreed that there are four factors that determine how good your defense is: turnover rate, free throw rate, eFG%, and defensive rebound%.

So, counting all the turnover possessions, this is how our defensive performance against Kansas would have ranked among our defensive performances last season, in each of the four factors:


Turnover%: would have been our best performance last season;

eFG%: would have been a bottom 10 performance last season;

DR%: would have been a bottom 10 performance last season;

FTR: would have been our worst performance last season.


Does that analysis have meaning? I think it does, and we have a lot of room for defensive improvement.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-07-2019, 11:52 AM
How about this: it is generally agreed that there are four factors that determine how good your defense is: turnover rate, free throw rate, eFG%, and defensive rebound%.

So, counting all the turnover possessions, this is how our defensive performance against Kansas would have ranked among our defensive performances last season, in each of the four factors:


Turnover%: would have been our best performance last season;

eFG%: would have been a bottom 10 performance last season;

DR%: would have been a bottom 10 performance last season;

FTR: would have been our worst performance last season.


Does that analysis have meaning? I think it does, and we have a lot of room for defensive improvement.

It has meaning, but you don't seem to account for the fact that turnovers are by far the most important category....as those are totally lost possessions to the other team.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-07-2019, 11:54 AM
Yes, of course. And that is what I did.

Which is why I think the criticism by Indoor66 and Mtn.Devil is a little off base.

What good is PPP if you take OUT the turnover possessions?
HINT: not a lot.

kAzE
11-07-2019, 11:58 AM
Kaze... I don't understand how you can blame Vernon for those backdoors either. Jordan cleaned up his ball-you-man (or something) and the backdoors stopped. Are you saying Vernon wasn't communicating from the post? I agree that Hurt was in position for weak side help.

I mean, maybe someone like Zion, Bagley, or Brand would have slid over and blocked Agbaji, but it's hard for me to give the majority of the blame to Vernon.

You're right, the first back door cut was not his responsibility. Here are the plays I'm talking about:

https://youtu.be/jLrg593hzJ8

3:53 - Garrett gets a hand off at the top of the key, and loses his man, Cassius, who gets stuck on a screen. Vernon is in perfect position to get in front, but doesn't move his feet at all. Wide open layup.

4:02 - Vernon guarding Azubuike who gets the ball in the high post. Jordan is playing way too high up, gets caught ball watching, his man cuts back door, and Azubuike delivers a great pass. Vernon again doesn't move his feet and allows an easy dunk. Yes, Jordan gets most of the blame, but a little more effort from Vernon could have prevented the dunk.

4:29 - Kansas gets a defensive rebound, Vernon is right next to Azubuike in the paint when the change of possession occurs. Instead of chasing down his man, he decides to pick up Garrett at half court. Azubuike jogs all the way to the paint and gets the feed for an easy slam.

6:09 - Garrett blows by Alex on a crossover and gets in to the paint. This time, Vernon does move well enough to get in position to help, but decides to let Garrett go up uncontested. Gotta at least put his hands up straight in that spot.

6:45 - Dotson blows right by Tre in transition. Vernon is the help defender, but Dotson is just way too quick. I don't blame Vernon for this one, he's just not equipped to defend that. This is an example of his physical limitations. Javin maybe could have bothered that shot.

7:23 - Dotson blows by Tre again, Vernon actually does get a pretty decent contest on this one, but Dotson makes the tough lay in.

I want to be clear this is nitpicking. He obviously deserves a pass because he's a freshman playing in his very first game. But I'm pointing these things out as areas for improvement. He's no Zion or Wendell Carter from a physical standpoint, and he will never be as good a defender as those guys, but there were a few times that game where a little more foot movement could have prevented a Kansas score, that's all I'm saying.

Kedsy
11-07-2019, 12:24 PM
It has meaning, but you don't seem to account for the fact that turnovers are by far the most important category...as those are totally lost possessions to the other team.

I have never seen anyone who has thoughtfully analyzed this kind of thing suggesting that turnovers are "by far the most important category." One can certainly make an argument that shooting is more important, for example.

That said, who cares? My point is that when we didn't turn them over, our defense was poor.


What good is PPP if you take OUT the turnover possessions?
HINT: not a lot.

As usual, you make grand pronouncements without a great deal of basis. The point was that if you look at non-turnover possessions in this game vs. non-turnover possessions in every game last season, this would have been one of our worst game performances in those type of possessions. In other words, even in games when we forced a lot of turnovers last season, we performed much better in the defensive possessions in which we didn't turn over our opponents. You may think that's useless information, but I'm fairly certain you're wrong.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-07-2019, 12:31 PM
I have never seen anyone who has thoughtfully analyzed this kind of thing suggesting that turnovers are "by far the most important category." One can certainly make an argument that shooting is more important, for example.

That said, who cares? My point is that when we didn't turn them over, our defense was poor.

As usual, you make grand pronouncements without a great deal of basis. The point was that if you look at non-turnover possessions in this game vs. non-turnover possessions in every game last season, this would have been one of our worst game performances in those type of possessions. In other words, even in games when we forced a lot of turnovers last season, we performed much better in the defensive possessions in which we didn't turn over our opponents. You may think that's useless information, but I'm fairly certain you're wrong.

I stand by both my arguments. With every defense in every sport in the history of mankind, a turnover aggressive defense is by definition a risky defense, and be it football, hockey, hoops, tiddly winks or what have you, OF COURSE the times the risk reward aggressiveness didn't pan out the results are more damaging. Again, taking the turnovers out of either offensive or defensive analysis is meaningless. Interesting, but meaningless.

And the difference between shooting 33% versus 50% is the difference of one sixth of one possession. A turnover is WORTH 100% OF A POSSESSION. Case closed.

COYS
11-07-2019, 12:41 PM
I stand by both my arguments. With every defense in every sport in the history of mankind, a turnover aggressive defense is by definition a risky defense, and be it football, hockey, hoops, tiddly winks or what have you, OF COURSE the times the risk reward aggressiveness didn't pan out the results are more damaging. Again, taking the turnovers out of either offensive or defensive analysis is meaningless. Interesting, but meaningless.

And the difference between shooting 33% versus 50% is the difference of one sixth of one possession. A turnover is WORTH 100% OF A POSSESSION. Case closed.

Sure, in a vacuum forcing a turnover is the single best outcome. But designing a defense based off of forcing turnovers is absolutely not a fool-proof scheme. Virginia is perennially at the top of the defensive ratings without ever forcing that many turnovers. Forcing turnovers usually involves gambling for steals or employing high-risk high-reward schemes like full-court presses.

JayZee
11-07-2019, 12:52 PM
Sure, in a vacuum forcing a turnover is the single best outcome. But designing a defense based off of forcing turnovers is absolutely not a fool-proof scheme. Virginia is perennially at the top of the defensive ratings without ever forcing that many turnovers. Forcing turnovers usually involves gambling for steals or employing high-risk high-reward schemes like full-court presses.

There were all sorts of turnovers the other night including miscues from pressure, miscues from forcing players outside of their comfort zone, and turnovers on shot clock violations. I agree with your sentiment that designing a game plan around just steals and full court pressure is high risk/high reward. While Kansas clearly contributed, we maintained pressure, good shape and good rotations. that can be sustainable, IMO.

kAzE
11-07-2019, 12:55 PM
I think the high risk/high reward style defensive scheme aiming for turnovers is exactly the style this team needs to play. Our half court offense is not good right now. We don't have guys like RJ or Zion who can just go get a bucket. This team is equipped to pressure the ball and force turnovers, and we can create easy scores in transition. IMO, we're not good enough (at least for now) scoring against set half court defenses. Our coaches are doing it right.

Kfanarmy
11-07-2019, 01:34 PM
Sure, in a vacuum forcing a turnover is the single best outcome. But designing a defense based off of forcing turnovers is absolutely not a fool-proof scheme. Virginia is perennially at the top of the defensive ratings without ever forcing that many turnovers. Forcing turnovers usually involves gambling for steals or employing high-risk high-reward schemes like full-court presses.

IDK, I think escape to air may be the single best outcome in a vacuum.

DukieInBrasil
11-07-2019, 01:37 PM
How about this: it is generally agreed that there are four factors that determine how good your defense is: turnover rate, free throw rate, eFG%, and defensive rebound%.

So, counting all the turnover possessions, this is how our defensive performance against Kansas would have ranked among our defensive performances last season, in each of the four factors:
Turnover%: would have been our best performance last season;
eFG%: would have been a bottom 10 performance last season;
DR%: would have been a bottom 10 performance last season;
FTR: would have been our worst performance last season.
Does that analysis have meaning? I think it does, and we have a lot of room for defensive improvement.

thanks for your analyses, pretty fascinating stuff and great for putting things in perspective. The one question i have for you is: what about 3FG% and rate? I assume that part of the eFG% and FTR success that Kansas had was due in part to having 3 seriously beefy dudes, even if none of them really destroyed us, and which required lots of attention, which may have opened up space for 3FGs and/or driving. I see that Kansas shot 4-9 (44.4%), which is a great % but not a lot of shots. So where does KU's 3FG% and rate impact your analysis?

DukieInBrasil
11-07-2019, 01:51 PM
I stand by both my arguments. With every defense in every sport in the history of mankind, a turnover aggressive defense is by definition a risky defense, and be it football, hockey, hoops, tiddly winks or what have you, OF COURSE the times the risk reward aggressiveness didn't pan out the results are more damaging. Again, taking the turnovers out of either offensive or defensive analysis is meaningless. Interesting, but meaningless.
And the difference between shooting 33% versus 50% is the difference of one sixth of one possession. A turnover is WORTH 100% OF A POSSESSION. Case closed.

I think you missed the entire point of Kedsy's argument, that he was analyzing the exact same possession outcomes from last season to this one game, and that this game would have stood as one of our worst in those possessions. While the turnover rate would have been the best, the weakness of the rest of the defensive metrics pointed to meant that the overall defensive performance Tues night was good but not particularly great. It was good enough to get the win, and that's what i care about.
Kedsy's point though was that the likelihood that the turnover rate being an outlier that might not be approached again is pretty high, and that the rather poor performance of the other defensive metrics leaves room to believe that there remains a good deal of work to be done on the defense. I for one think that K and staff are all over this and will in fact work hard to get the team to buy in to defensive strengths so that the relative weaknesses that Kedsy pointed out will improve.

UrinalCake
11-07-2019, 02:18 PM
IDK, I think escape to air may be the single best outcome in a vacuum.

Depends if it’s bagless, canister, or one of those fancy Dyson things.

Wahoo2000
11-07-2019, 02:42 PM
I think you missed the entire point of Kedsy's argument, that he was analyzing the exact same possession outcomes from last season to this one game, and that this game would have stood as one of our worst in those possessions. While the turnover rate would have been the best, the weakness of the rest of the defensive metrics pointed to meant that the overall defensive performance Tues night was good but not particularly great. It was good enough to get the win, and that's what i care about.
Kedsy's point though was that the likelihood that the turnover rate being an outlier that might not be approached again is pretty high, and that the rather poor performance of the other defensive metrics leaves room to believe that there remains a good deal of work to be done on the defense. I for one think that K and staff are all over this and will in fact work hard to get the team to buy in to defensive strengths so that the relative weaknesses that Kedsy pointed out will improve.

I think this hits the nail on the head. FWIW - you guys just might also be over-analyzing one game (but that's what message boards are for, right? so not saying you're dumb to discuss/debate or anything). For instance, while I doubt that Duke will force that kind of turnover rate with any regularity, I also think that their other defensive metrics will be better than they were in this specific outing (will prob have a better defensive eFG%, FTR, and RB% MOST of the time). When it's a one game sample size, vs an outlier caliber opponent (like a top 5 or a bottom 100ish team), hard to draw many conclusions that are meaningful predictors of future performance, except those supported by past player performance (for instance, based on all of last year PLUS last night, I'm more likely to think Jones hasn't significantly improved his 3pt shooting, and that DeLaurier will still be a foul accumulating machine).

Ultimately I'd guess (like most of you), Duke will be driven by pressure man 2 man defense, and that their strengths offensively will be a big, talented, and deep frontcourt, with a sophomore leader at PG that is a crazy peaky defender and excellent playmaker even if an average/poor jumpshooter. Also have a very athletic freshman 2 guard who looks like the best candidate to provide a balance of offensive and defensive punch.


P.S. - Just typing that last bit out made me realize how similar the Duke and UVA teams are constructed this year-
Jones -- Clark (jones a much better driver of the ball, but rather similar style players otherwise)
Stanley -- Morsell
Carey/Hurt/Delaurier/White -- Diakite/Huff/Key
Then both teams have some misc other guys on the wing they hope will step up. Both are going to be very dependent on their heart and soul PGs to be playmakers on O & D, and lean heavily on the frontcourt. Based on pure talent, I'd certainly say Duke is better off, but we do have a little more experience overall among the top rotation players, which has been proven a very valuable commodity in our system. Sorry for the tangent - just occurred to me as I was wrapping up the original intent of my post. ;-)

MChambers
11-07-2019, 02:58 PM
Depends if it’s bagless, canister, or one of those fancy Dyson things.

Or a Roomba. No one thinks about that.

COYS
11-07-2019, 03:15 PM
There were all sorts of turnovers the other night including miscues from pressure, miscues from forcing players outside of their comfort zone, and turnovers on shot clock violations. I agree with your sentiment that designing a game plan around just steals and full court pressure is high risk/high reward. While Kansas clearly contributed, we maintained pressure, good shape and good rotations. that can be sustainable, IMO.

I don't doubt that turnovers aren't awesome. I even said upthread that I think that we have the personnel to force a lot of turnovers this year, so on that, we definitely agree. But the context of this particular response was the claim that another poster had made about turnovers being the single most important part of a good defense. I don't think that is true. And while I want this year's team to force turnovers, I hope that other defensive markers improve, as well.

ncexnyc
11-07-2019, 04:11 PM
Nice to see the forum back to its usual self.:D

azzefkram
11-07-2019, 04:20 PM
Kedsy can get caught in the stat weeds just about better than anyone but it doesn't take a stathead to see that Duke's defense needs work or that turning over an opponent 35% of the time is not sustainable. Could some of the poor performance in the other defensive areas be attributed to Duke hunting for turnovers? Sure, but a bunch of it was young dudes not really being expected to play defense before. The good news is that Vernon, Cassius and Alex are a lot better on the defensive end than I expected. Matt seemed to get pushed around a bunch but I'm not sure how much of that was Matt as opposed to Kansas' beefy front line. For the first game against a top 10 opponent I was a bit heartened by the defense, warts and all.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-07-2019, 04:46 PM
I have never seen anyone who has thoughtfully analyzed this kind of thing suggesting that turnovers are "by far the most important category." One can certainly make an argument that shooting is more important, for example.

That said, who cares? My point is that when we didn't turn them over, our defense was poor.

As usual, you make grand pronouncements without a great deal of basis. The point was that if you look at non-turnover possessions in this game vs. non-turnover possessions in every game last season, this would have been one of our worst game performances in those type of possessions. In other words, even in games when we forced a lot of turnovers last season, we performed much better in the defensive possessions in which we didn't turn over our opponents. You may think that's useless information, but I'm fairly certain you're wrong.


I think you missed the entire point of Kedsy's argument, that he was analyzing the exact same possession outcomes from last season to this one game, and that this game would have stood as one of our worst in those possessions. While the turnover rate would have been the best, the weakness of the rest of the defensive metrics pointed to meant that the overall defensive performance Tues night was good but not particularly great. It was good enough to get the win, and that's what i care about.
Kedsy's point though was that the likelihood that the turnover rate being an outlier that might not be approached again is pretty high, and that the rather poor performance of the other defensive metrics leaves room to believe that there remains a good deal of work to be done on the defense. I for one think that K and staff are all over this and will in fact work hard to get the team to buy in to defensive strengths so that the relative weaknesses that Kedsy pointed out will improve.

I did not miss the point. I know what he was comparing, and my point is that it is not relevant to the game of basketball as it plays out on the hardwood. It's just another way to carve numbers up. It's interesting, but not meaningful.

A defense that is high risk, playing in the passing lanes, double teaming, pressing, etc, is going to create more turnovers and also give up a higher percentage of possessions where that risk does not pay off. That's a given, born out by every sport on the planet - but to take out the turnovers and think you have something meaningful on a PPP basis is to create a fallacy. This is like removing sack plays from a defense and seeing how well they did when they blitzed but did NOT get to the QB. It's interesting, but it's not how the game is played. I'm sure Kedsy' stats are correct, but the game is not scored on PPP outside of turnovers. It's scored on all possessions. FG defense, blocked shots, defensive rebounds, fouls committed all are important - but again, the only thing that wipes out 100% of a possession is a turnover.

And another thing that is key: a turnover wipes out 1.0 possessions. Shooting percentage dips only wipe out a fraction of a possession. The only stat that wipes out an entire possession (the only exception being if a team shoots, misses, gets their rebound, and then has a TO - which is a very small percentage of plays) is turnovers. Thus for offense and defense, it's very likely the most important stat. This is very basic math.

sagegrouse
11-07-2019, 04:48 PM
Kedsy can get caught in the stat weeds just about better than anyone but it doesn't take a stathead to see that Duke's defense needs work or that turning over an opponent 35% of the time is not sustainable. Could some of the poor performance in the other defensive areas be attributed to Duke hunting for turnovers? Sure, but a bunch of it was young dudes not really being expected to play defense before. The good news is that Vernon, Cassius and Alex are a lot better on the defensive end than I expected. Matt seemed to get pushed around a bunch but I'm not sure how much of that was Matt as opposed to Kansas' beefy front line. For the first game against a top 10 opponent I was a bit heartened by the defense, warts and all.

Because Kansas always played two big lugs with power and little finesse, we decided to double-team them whenever they got the ball. I would argue it was effective -- we turned them over a bunch and won when we were an underdog. I doubt we see a team like this or ever play this kind of defense the rest of the season.

DukieInBrasil
11-07-2019, 05:08 PM
I did not miss the point. I know what he was comparing, and my point is that it is not relevant to the game of basketball as it plays out on the hardwood. It's just another way to carve numbers up. It's interesting, but not meaningful.

A defense that is high risk, playing in the passing lanes, double teaming, pressing, etc, is going to create more turnovers and also give up a higher percentage of possessions where that risk does not pay off. That's a given, born out by every sport on the planet - but to take out the turnovers and think you have something meaningful on a PPP basis is to create a fallacy. This is like removing sack plays from a defense and seeing how well they did when they blitzed but did NOT get to the QB. It's interesting, but it's not how the game is played. I'm sure Kedsy' stats are correct, but the game is not scored on PPP outside of turnovers. It's scored on all possessions. FG defense, blocked shots, defensive rebounds, fouls committed all are important - but again, the only thing that wipes out 100% of a possession is a turnover.

And another thing that is key: a turnover wipes out 1.0 possessions. Shooting percentage dips only wipe out a fraction of a possession. The only stat that wipes out an entire possession (the only exception being if a team shoots, misses, gets their rebound, and then has a TO - which is a very small percentage of plays) is turnovers. Thus for offense and defense, it's very likely the most important stat. This is very basic math.

thanks for proving the point.

Kedsy
11-07-2019, 05:33 PM
thanks for your analyses, pretty fascinating stuff and great for putting things in perspective. The one question i have for you is: what about 3FG% and rate? I assume that part of the eFG% and FTR success that Kansas had was due in part to having 3 seriously beefy dudes, even if none of them really destroyed us, and which required lots of attention, which may have opened up space for 3FGs and/or driving. I see that Kansas shot 4-9 (44.4%), which is a great % but not a lot of shots. So where does KU's 3FG% and rate impact your analysis?

Well, in theory, all that stuff (as you say) would be wrapped up in the eFG%.

FWIW, Kansas' 3FG% of 44.4% would have been the 5th highest last season, and their %threes of 18.0% would have been the lowest last season. So, I guess that's something else our defense did very well the other night, chasing Kansas off the three-point line.


I think you missed the entire point of Kedsy's argument, that he was analyzing the exact same possession outcomes from last season to this one game, and that this game would have stood as one of our worst in those possessions. While the turnover rate would have been the best, the weakness of the rest of the defensive metrics pointed to meant that the overall defensive performance Tues night was good but not particularly great. It was good enough to get the win, and that's what i care about.
Kedsy's point though was that the likelihood that the turnover rate being an outlier that might not be approached again is pretty high, and that the rather poor performance of the other defensive metrics leaves room to believe that there remains a good deal of work to be done on the defense. I for one think that K and staff are all over this and will in fact work hard to get the team to buy in to defensive strengths so that the relative weaknesses that Kedsy pointed out will improve.

Thanks for saying this so well. The bolded part above is exactly why I looked into this. If someone could promise me that for the entire season we'd force turnovers on 35% of opponent possessions, I wouldn't be particularly worried about the other stuff.

But considering the highest percentage of turnovers Duke has ever forced over an entire season in the Coach K era is 27% (in 1987), I think how we perform in the non-turnover possessions is worth looking at. (Because, for example, if we'd only forced turnovers on 27% of possessions instead of 35%, at the rate we gave up points in non-turnover possessions, Kansas would have had 8 more points and this probably would have been a loss.)


I did not miss the point. I know what he was comparing, and my point is that it is not relevant to the game of basketball as it plays out on the hardwood. It's just another way to carve numbers up. It's interesting, but not meaningful.

A defense that is high risk, playing in the passing lanes, double teaming, pressing, etc, is going to create more turnovers and also give up a higher percentage of possessions where that risk does not pay off. That's a given, born out by every sport on the planet - but to take out the turnovers and think you have something meaningful on a PPP basis is to create a fallacy.

Last season, in a game against Stetson, Duke forced turnovers on 31.2% of Stetson's possessions. On the possessions that did not end in a turnover, Stetson only scored 0.85 points per possession. That's good defense, all around.

Against Kansas, we forced turnovers on 34.9% of Kansas's possessions. On the possessions that did not end in a turnover Kansas scored 1.27 points per possession.

Obviously Kansas and Stetson can't be fairly compared when it comes to strength of opponent, but there's not that big a difference between 31% and 35% and there's a huuuge difference between 0.85 ppp and 1.27 ppp. You can keep saying, over and over, that it's not meaningful, but I don't think that many people would agree with you.


And another thing that is key: a turnover wipes out 1.0 possessions. Shooting percentage dips only wipe out a fraction of a possession. The only stat that wipes out an entire possession (the only exception being if a team shoots, misses, gets their rebound, and then has a TO - which is a very small percentage of plays) is turnovers. Thus for offense and defense, it's very likely the most important stat. This is very basic math.

Basic math, possibly. Incomplete math, almost certainly. Because, for example, most teams in most games take 3 to 5 times as many field goal attempts as they have turnovers. Meaning you are understating the value of shooting (vis-a-vis turnovers) by 3x to 5x.

DavidBenAkiva
11-07-2019, 05:48 PM
Jordan Sperber had a mini-breakdown of Duke's approach to doubling the post against Kansas. In short, the rotations were really good and also Kansas was super predictable.

https://twitter.com/hoopvision68/status/1192102315844657157

Also, there's a quick clip of Cassius Stanley's weakside defense, which was very good for a freshman in his first game.

My biggest question heading into the season was interior defense (now it is more on the offensive side, ha!). Kansas and their emphasis on post entry was giving me all sorts of anxiety. But none of the Kansas big men were capable to getting anything going. The defensive effort from Duke and the play of Carey, Hurt, White, and Stanley on that end of the court was super encouraging stuff. It will be interesting to see how this shapes up against a different opponent that doesn't methodically try to pound the ball down to the post every trip down the court.

uh_no
11-07-2019, 05:54 PM
Well, in theory, all that stuff (as you say) would be wrapped up in the eFG%.

FWIW, Kansas' 3FG% of 44.4% would have been the 5th highest last season, and their %threes of 18.0% would have been the lowest last season. So, I guess that's something else our defense did very well the other night, chasing Kansas off the three-point line.



Thanks for saying this so well. The bolded part above is exactly why I looked into this. If someone could promise me that for the entire season we'd force turnovers on 35% of opponent possessions, I wouldn't be particularly worried about the other stuff.


I think the mitigating factor is whether we attempted to force turnovers specifically because it was early. Maybe thought K would be especially susceptible to turnovers, and took as much advantage of it as possible while compromising other things. That would mean in later games we wouldn't force as many turnovers, but also wouldn't play defense as poorly. It's somewhat of a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibility.

We will see.

Nugget
11-07-2019, 09:57 PM
I think the mitigating factor is whether we attempted to force turnovers specifically because it was early. Maybe thought K would be especially susceptible to turnovers, and took as much advantage of it as possible while compromising other things. That would mean in later games we wouldn't force as many turnovers, but also wouldn't play defense as poorly. It's somewhat of a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibility.

We will see.

I think it much more likely that the 34% TO rate was an extreme outlier due to KU having 1 guard and them being unusually careless with the ball. It's not like last year's team wasn't really good/aggressive on defense--recall the extraordinary steals figures Zion and Tre were generating for much of the season--and we only ended up with a 19% TO rate for the year. I understand part of this was probably a function of Tre's and Zion's injuries, but not entirely.

My anecdotal sense is it's simply become more difficult to generate lots of turnovers than it used to be -- that with the AAU world of more guys growing up handling the ball, plus tighter whistles, players are less likely to commit TOs now than in the 80s. This is compounded for Duke by the increase in one and done players who take time to learn to be effective team defenders. We haven't exceeded a 20% TO rate for a season since 2013.

Even teams that fully sell out to pressing and have led the NCAA in TO rate in the last 10 or so years (e.g., Press Virginia, Auburn, Stephen F. Austin, VCU) have topped out around 25-28%. No one playing regular half-court MTM like we do can hope to being close to that.

We can't reasonably expect to be much more than 20% on TO rate. So, I think Kedsey is right, we absolutely need to tighten up the performance on non-TO possessions.

Troublemaker
11-08-2019, 07:12 AM
I think the mitigating factor is whether we attempted to force turnovers specifically because it was early. Maybe thought K would be especially susceptible to turnovers, and took as much advantage of it as possible while compromising other things. That would mean in later games we wouldn't force as many turnovers, but also wouldn't play defense as poorly. It's somewhat of a stretch, but not out of the realm of possibility.

We just mostly played our standard defense -- ball pressure, ball denial, icing screens, containment drops by bigs, switching small/small -- and added aggressive post doubles as an opponent-specific adjustment.

Forcing turnovers is just part of our standard defense.

MarkD83
11-08-2019, 08:02 AM
The new stat I like the most is calculated as follows:

X = ((Duke 2 pt FG% * # of Duke 2 pt FG) - (Opp 2pt FG% * # of Opp 2 pt FG))*2 + ((Duke 3 pt Fg% * # of Duke 3 pt FG) - (Opp 3 pt FG * # of Opp 2 pt FG))*3 + ((Duke FT% * # of Duke FT) - (Opp FT% * # of Opp FT))

You need to put this stat in a conditional equation : If (X>1) = W else L.

This is summed over the season and

if the total W is greater than the total W for the other ACC teams during the regular season than the overall stat = ACC regular season champion.
if the total W is greater than the total W for the other ACC teams during the acc tournament than the overall stat = ACC tournament champion.
if the total W is greater than the total W for the other NCAA teams during the NCAA tournament than the overall stat = NCAA national champion.

Indoor66
11-08-2019, 08:19 AM
The new stat I like the most is calculated as follows:

X = ((Duke 2 pt FG% * # of Duke 2 pt FG) - (Opp 2pt FG% * # of Opp 2 pt FG))*2 + ((Duke 3 pt Fg% * # of Duke 3 pt FG) - (Opp 3 pt FG * # of Opp 2 pt FG))*3 + ((Duke FT% * # of Duke FT) - (Opp FT% * # of Opp FT))

You need to put this stat in a conditional equation : If (X>1) = W else L.

This is summed over the season and

if the total W is greater than the total W for the other ACC teams during the regular season than the overall stat = ACC regular season champion.
if the total W is greater than the total W for the other ACC teams during the acc tournament than the overall stat = ACC tournament champion.
if the total W is greater than the total W for the other NCAA teams during the NCAA tournament than the overall stat = NCAA national champion.

What is all that translated into common English?

BoiseDevil
11-08-2019, 08:32 AM
What is all that translated into common English?

Just win, baby!

devildeac
11-08-2019, 09:42 AM
What is all that translated into common English?

9F 9F

Because one 9F is only two characters so it's worth repeating.

;)

House P
11-08-2019, 10:17 AM
I did not miss the point. I know what he was comparing, and my point is that it is not relevant to the game of basketball as it plays out on the hardwood. It's just another way to carve numbers up. It's interesting, but not meaningful.

A defense that is high risk, playing in the passing lanes, double teaming, pressing, etc, is going to create more turnovers and also give up a higher percentage of possessions where that risk does not pay off. That's a given, born out by every sport on the planet - but to take out the turnovers and think you have something meaningful on a PPP basis is to create a fallacy. This is like removing sack plays from a defense and seeing how well they did when they blitzed but did NOT get to the QB. It's interesting, but it's not how the game is played. I'm sure Kedsy' stats are correct, but the game is not scored on PPP outside of turnovers. It's scored on all possessions. FG defense, blocked shots, defensive rebounds, fouls committed all are important - but again, the only thing that wipes out 100% of a possession is a turnover.

I completely agree that aggressively pursuing turnovers is likely have negative ramifications for possessions that don't end in turnovers. However, I don't think that "defensive performance in non-turnover possessions" is entirely meaningless. It isn't a commonly discussed stat, so I personally don't have a good context for it, but I don't know if that makes it meaningless.

Take your football analogy. I suspect that well-coached NFL teams who blitz frequently pay lots of attention to what happens when they don't get to the quarterback. Surely, an unsuccessful blitz that ends up with an incomplete pass or short gain is a lot better than one that ends up with a touchdown.


And another thing that is key: a turnover wipes out 1.0 possessions. Shooting percentage dips only wipe out a fraction of a possession. The only stat that wipes out an entire possession (the only exception being if a team shoots, misses, gets their rebound, and then has a TO - which is a very small percentage of plays) is turnovers. Thus for offense and defense, it's very likely the most important stat. This is very basic math.

I am not sure I follow. I agree that a turnover is an excellent outcome because it ends a possession without points, but so does a missed shot and defensive rebound. A live ball turnover is probably a bit better than a defensive rebound because it may lead to a high percentage transition shot, but I don't see how it is any better at preventing points.

Put another way, all other things being equal,would you prefer to have a defense that

a) leads the country in turnover percentage, but is average in effective field goal percentage, or
b) leads the country in effective field goal percentage, but is average in turnover percentage?


#####################


For what it is worth, there doesn't seem to be a strong correlation between turnover percentage and effective field goal percentage in college basketball.* There are teams who force a lot of turnovers, but allow their opponents to shoot a high percentage when they don't turn them over. There are also a roughly equal number of teams who force a lot of turnovers AND hold their opponents to a low effective FG%. You can probably guess which group tends to better defensively overall. After one game, it remains to be seen which type of team Duke will be in 2019-20.

One potential cause for optimism is that Duke's effective FG% of 50% against Kansas MAY not have been as mediocre as Kedsy originally suggested. While an eFG% of 50% is pretty mediocre on the surface (the average eFG% across D1 was 50.7% last season), we should probably consider that KU is not an average opponent. While it remains to be seen how good KU will be offensively this year, they have consistently been one of the top teams with respect to eFG% in recent years. In the past 4 years, they have been in the top 12 in the country 3 times with an average eFG% of 55.5% over this period. If the the 2019-20 KU team turns out to have an eFG% around 55%, holding them to 50% is actually pretty solid.

On the other hand, Duke's defensive rebounding rate and foul rate were pretty poor, even after adjusting for the level of competition.




*I plotted turnover percentage vs eFG% for all high major teams in the 2019 season and the r-squared value is 0.003. To me, that implies that there is little correlation between turnover percentage and eFG%. I can show the plot if anyone is interested.

HereBeforeCoachK
11-08-2019, 05:39 PM
I am not sure I follow. I agree that a turnover is an excellent outcome because it ends a possession without points, but so does a missed shot and defensive rebound. A live ball turnover is probably a bit better than a defensive rebound because it may lead to a high percentage transition shot, but I don't see how it is any better at preventing points.



Some very interesting comments.....with respect to the one comment above.....a turnover is almost always before ANY shot is taken.....and a turnover is one event. A missed shot and a D rebound are two separate events. Therefore, it takes two events to equal the one turnover creation - which means neither has the impact of the single event that can end a possession by itself.