Degenerate Gamblers Rejoice! The 2019-20 Picking Contest is Here!!

[JasonEvans]

I totally forgot to do this so you will need to sign up quickly. The first games are tomorrow! Yikes!

For folks who are not familiar, this is a contest where you pick college basketball games against the spread or the over/under. You make wagers in the amount of 100-500 units on each game and we keep track to see who is the best picker. In years past we have done a version of this for the pre-ACC season and one for the ACC season, but with the ACC moving to a longer schedule it makes no sense to separate those two things any longer so the contest will last the entire regular season this time.

Important rule: Though the website will display games that do not involve ACC teams, YOU CAN ONLY PICKS GAMES INVOLVING AT LEAST 1 ACC TEAM. If you pick, for example, the Ky-MSU game, then (regardless of whether your pick is right or wrong) you will pay a penalty of being forced to make an incorrect pick in some other game to balance out your improper pick. It really is easier if we do not go there so just remember to ONLY PICK GAMES INVOLVING AN ACC TEAM!

One more important rule-- it is possible to be such a loser that you are eliminated from the contest. As in years past, if you find yourself 5000 units in the hole, you are out and may not make any more picks. Now, if you are -4900 you can still make a bunch of picks that day in the hope of catching up, but the moment you get to -5000, you are done picking.

If you have any other questions feel free to post it here and I can answer. For now, follow the instructions below and get started!

Contest Name: DBR 2019-20 ACC Picking contest
Access Password: GoDuke
Commissioner: JasonEvans
Start Date: Nov 4 2019
End Date: Mar 24 2020
How To Join: Click on to the following link --> DBR 2019-20 ACC Picking contest (https://contests.covers.com/OfficePools/512b8c12-9838-4d7b-9e5b-aafb00c38d2b)

-Jason "this contest will begin now and continue until the end of the regular season (including conference tournaments). We will then have a new contest for the NCAA tourney" Evans

[du_bb1]

Another year of self flagellation begins----I am in

[AGDukesky]

I am only seeing the Duke-KU game available for picks but none of the ACC openers on the 5th. Am I doing something wrong?

[ChillinDuke]

Rejoice, indeed!

- Chillin

[JasonEvans]

I am only seeing the Duke-KU game available for picks but none of the ACC openers on the 5th. Am I doing something wrong?

The lines on the other games have not been posted yet. It is not uncommon for lines to be posted the morning of games or the night before.

[Bob Green]

I’m in. Looking forward to another exciting season.

[AGDukesky]

The lines on the other games have not been posted yet. It is not uncommon for lines to be posted the morning of games or the night before.

Gotcha, thank you

[du_bb1]

Would just like to note that I am currently tied for first place !

[CameronBlue]

Would just like to note that I am currently tied for first place !

And last! You're on a roll.

[du_bb1]

And last! You're on a roll.

does that make me amphibious ???

[NYBri]

I’m in! Full season contest will mean a new tactic. Not sure if 500 bets all year long will hack is. Especially since early on, non-conference games are A crap shoot. In the past, by the time we get to the ACC in January, we have a sense of how these teams stack up. Not so much early.

[JasonEvans]

Lines and O/U are up for all the ACC games tonight.

Lou -7 over Miami, OU 146
Duke -1 over Kansas, OU 153.5
Clemson -6.5 over Va Tech, OU 129.5
NCSU -7 over GaT, OU 150.5

Please join the contest and do not bet on any other game than these tonight!!

[Troublemaker]

I want to take Duke but can't accept taking a worse line that what is widely available elsewhere.

Hopefully Covers gets its act together and updates the Duke -1 to Duke +2.5

[UrinalCake]

I am in! This is my first time doing anything like this but it sounds like fun. And of course, I got so excited that I submitted a pick for the MSU-KY game even though I had just read the rules five minutes prior and knew that I wasn’t allowed to do that. And I don’t see a way to cancel the pick. So I will accept whatever form of punishment comes.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I’m in! Full season contest will mean a new tactic. Not sure if 500 bets all year long will hack is. Especially since early on, non-conference games are A crap shoot. In the past, by the time we get to the ACC in January, we have a sense of how these teams stack up. Not so much early.

HAH, I was wondering if your 500 every game every bet strategy would hold......

[JasonEvans]

I am in! This is my first time doing anything like this but it sounds like fun. And of course, I got so excited that I submitted a pick for the MSU-KY game even though I had just read the rules five minutes prior and knew that I wasn’t allowed to do that. And I don’t see a way to cancel the pick. So I will accept whatever form of punishment comes.

So, here is how it works...

If you lose the wager, we do nothing. You made a bet and you lost and that money is deducted from your account (along with a 10% vig... the vig will wreck you if you don't watch out!). But, if you win the wager you will be required to make other bets that cause you to lose the money you improperly gained.

I see you bet on Michigan State -2.5 tonight. So, lets say that wager was for 300 units and MSU covers. You would have to find some other game (any game, doesn't have to be an ACC game) and you would bet 300 on that game and hope to lose. But if you win that bet then you now have to find games where you can lose 600 units and so on. You need to post your "losing" picks in this thread so we can keep track of them.

Does that make sense? I don't think we've had a case where someone had to make more than a couple make up bets, but it could happen. Remember the vig... if you found that you had to make up 600 or 1200 in improper winnings, that 10% vig could start to be meaningful.

-Jason "thanks for admitting your mistake and for joining the game!" Evans

[UrinalCake]

That makes sense, except for the part about finding a bet to intentionally lose. If I knew how to pick a bet that would definitely lose, then I’d be pretty darn good at this game, wouldn’t I?

[ShaneRyan]

Is weekly betting unlimited? In other words, could I bet 500 on every game involving an ACC team?

Also, I think Jason is keeping the Covers line at Duke -1 as a test of loyalty. Anyone who doesn't take it is a coward and a traitor.

[JasonEvans]

That makes sense, except for the part about finding a bet to intentionally lose. If I knew how to pick a bet that would definitely lose, then I’d be pretty darn good at this game, wouldn’t I?

Ahh, there is the rub. Finding a losing bet ain't easy. That is how folks could potentially get into a situation where they have to lose thousands of fake units (the vig on which would be nasty). If you fail to make enough losing wagers, at some point I would be forced to ask covers to remove you from the pool.


Is weekly betting unlimited? In other words, could I bet 500 on every game involving an ACC team?

I think I set it for a max of 30 wagers per day, which is enough to cover the line and the OU for every ACC team. So, the betting is unlimited.

But, remember, if you get to -5000 then your game is over. Aggressive wagers can be dangerous if you get on a losing streak. I think we lost someone in the first week of the contest last year.

[JasonEvans]

By the way, if you want to see more of what this is like, here is the thread from last year's ACC contest (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?42918-2019-ACC-Picking-Contest-(Degenerate-Gamblers-Rejoice!!)&highlight=degenerate). Duketaylor took the title. I don't have the final standings, but this was the leaderboard coming into the final day of wagers:

https://i.ibb.co/pbSzLc8/Capture.png

As you can see, some folks did really well by betting on a lot of games (Rasputin) and some did well by being more selective (Bob Green was famous for picking 1 or 2 wagers a day and getting them mostly right). I did not capture the bottom of the standings but I recall at least 3 or 4 people hitting the -5000 and being out.

-Jason "I think we did really well last year and I sorta doubt many of us are more than 5000 positive this year" Evans

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Also, I think Jason is keeping the Covers line at Duke -1 as a test of loyalty. Anyone who doesn't take it is a coward and a traitor.

no no...that's not how this works. Play here to win here.

Besides, the real test of loyalty is to perhaps bet against Duke...and yet still hope Duke wins (and thus you lose the bet)......which I''m sure is a test everyone here passes.

[UrinalCake]

Ahh, there is the rub. Finding a losing bet ain't easy.

I’ve had a couple occasions where I’ve been sitting at a blackjack table in Vegas with a small handful of chips left at the end of the night and decided I just wanted to lose them. Usually because I was too lazy or depressed to walk to the cashier to cash them out. On both occasions I went on long winning streaks. I was still playing basic strategy, it’s not like I was hitting on 18, but flipping the mental switch and trying to lose is often a great way to start winning.

[devildeac]

Has RJ199 been eliminated from this year's contest yet?

:rolleyes:;)

[left_hook_lacey]

I wish there was a way to have one "lock" pick per week that allowed us to vote 1,000 or more points just once a week. Could be interesting. I'd probably be -5000 first. :)

I can't believe UNC is -11 vs. Notre Dame. That seems crazy high, but then looked at the open and they were -12 and -12.5 on some books.

[AGDukesky]

I’m offering my picking services to the highest bidder- just do the opposite of me and you are guaranteed to win!

[brlftz]

Man I thought ND v cheaters would be a score-fest

ETA there is some amazingly bad hair playing for the heels this year.

[NYBri]

HAH, I was wondering if your 500 every game every bet strategy would hold...

I’ll be back to the 500 on every bet on every game as soon as I get a sense of who these teams are.

I intend to be in the running all season long. 😎

[6th Man]

Interesting that Covers has a wrong score for UNC Notre Dame. Currently showing 74-65. Everything else I see shows 76-65. Big error if you picked UNC to cover.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Man I thought ND v cheaters would be a score-fest

ETA there is some amazingly bad hair playing for the heels this year.

Um.

Yeah.

[Bob Green]

I'm off to a nice start at 4-0 +2000. :cool:

[Green Wave Dukie]

Interesting that Covers has a wrong score for UNC Notre Dame. Currently showing 74-65. Everything else I see shows 76-65. Big error if you picked UNC to cover.


Yeah, I went to bed last night at 2-2, at -160, and with bets on UVA to cover and the under on their game with SU. Woke up at 6-1 and in 4th place. Pleasant surprise.

[NYBri]

Good night tonight.

Bump into second.

[Fish80]

Finally on the plus side!

I’m doing very good ATS and very bad with the O/U. Maybe I should stop betting the O/U?

Nah. It will turn around. :eek:

[sagegrouse]

Finally on the plus side!

I’m doing very good ATS and very bad with the O/U. Maybe I should stop betting the O/U?

Nah. It will turn around. :eek:

Not getting into the one-sided non-conference match-ups. Don't know enough yet about the ACC teams and know next-to-nothing about Nicholls State, etc. Maybe next week.

[richardjackson199]

Has RJ199 been eliminated from this year's contest yet?

:rolleyes:;)

For pride and after being one of the first 2 people to bust out of this contest I think every single year, I'm changing it up. I'm just going to stake Troublemaker who has started in the hole.

Standard deal, I get 50% of his winnings, but if he loses it's on me. :cool:

[du_bb1]

Had not checked standings for few days, traveling to Duke for BB and FB games. A pleasure to be leading--can we call the season now ???
It may be gone by end of day.

[NYBri]

Not all games are being offered. Sigh.

[TheOldBattleship]

Embarrassingly tech-unsavvy question: anyone know why I'm listed as "Hidden"/how I'd unhide myself? I'd like my season-long mediocrity to be witnessed!

9943

[JasonEvans]

Finally on the plus side!

I’m doing very good ATS and very bad with the O/U. Maybe I should stop betting the O/U?

Nah. It will turn around. :eek:

I'm a remarkably good 9-2 against the spread... and a remarkably bad 2-8 on O/U. I am seriously considering stopping betting the O/U. I actually bet on the over in a Virginia game last week... where was my head?!?!


Embarrassingly tech-unsavvy question: anyone know why I'm listed as "Hidden"/how I'd unhide myself? I'd like my season-long mediocrity to be witnessed!

9943

That just means your picks are hidden, not your full profile.

[TheOldBattleship]

I'm a remarkably good 9-2 against the spread... and a remarkably bad 2-8 on O/U. I am seriously considering stopping betting the O/U. I actually bet on the over in a Virginia game last week... where was my head?!?!

That just means your picks are hidden, not your full profile.

Ah, great, thanks!

I'm impressed anyone is getting any O/U right at all, honestly. I've completely avoiding it myself. It's just so hard to tell this early in the year, especially when there are such major new rules (3 pt line and shot clock, particularly) in play. Will be interested how low UVA can push that line this year, though!

[Fish80]

Dukes -33 v Central Arkansas, O/U at 153.5.

We need a 94 to 60 win!

[JasonEvans]

Dukes -33 v Central Arkansas, O/U at 153.5.

We need a 94 to 60 win!

I be them early so I got -32.5 and an O/U of 153... those half points are gonna save me, right?

[Fish80]

114 to 40 would work

[JasonEvans]

I went 4-1 yesterday (thank Duke and the over)... but many of us also had big days. ACC treated us well on Tuesday.

[UrinalCake]

I went 4-1 yesterday (thank Duke and the over)... but many of us also had big days. ACC treated us well on Tuesday.

Not me. I went with Howard to cover against Notre Dame, figuring 28 points was a lot to give. And of course they lost by 29.

[Fish80]

No ACC teams playing today? Nuts.

[NYBri]

Billv47 is at 18-5. 78.26%

That's crazy good. Small sample, yes, but any 23 game run at over 78% is darn good. Especially this early when we don't know jack about the teams yet and ACC is playing ... whoever.

[Rich]

I'm a remarkably good 9-2 against the spread... and a remarkably bad 2-8 on O/U. I am seriously considering stopping betting the O/U. I actually bet on the over in a Virginia game last week... where was my head?!?!

The O/U is where I lost most of my points last year. I'm only betting against the spread this season and so far it's working out for me.

[JasonEvans]

Billv47 is at 18-5. 78.26%

That's crazy good. Small sample, yes, but any 23 game run at over 78% is darn good. Especially this early when we don't know jack about the teams yet and ACC is playing ... whoever.

Yup, though it is not that far off from some of our top pickers. Like I said earlier, the ACC has been very good about covering thus far leading to a lot of folks to post gaudy "win" percentages. Fish80 is 25-9 (73/5%) through 34 games. That might be even more impressive than 78% through 23. Billv needs to go 8-3 over his next 11 to tie Fish80's win percentage.

-Jason "This week alone, 7 of us who have picked multiple games are hitting at a 70+% clip... we truly have a bunch of good degenerates around here!" Evans

[du_bb1]

Came back to earth a bit yesterday, returning to my norm, but Fish has got it going!
Did not think Wake would cover and too much faith in state %*%)

[JasonEvans]

Uhhhh Utah and Minnesota are NOT in the ACC. GreenWaveDukie has broken the rules of the contest by betting on Utah to cover a 4 point spread tonight.

GreenWave, if Utah does cover, you will be required to post here in this thread about your efforts to undo those ill-gotten gains. Failure to do so will result in your expulsion from the contest. I hope, for your sake, that Utah fails to cover.

[Green Wave Dukie]

James 5:16 - ‘Therefore, confess you’re sins to one another ...’

Somehow I managed to put 200 on Utah -4 tonight (against Minnesota). This is my 3rd year doing this (being in the contest in general - not necessarily failing to play by the rules). I know better.

I also know the drill. Hopefully they don’t cover and I move on. If I ‘win’ I’ll consult RichardJackson or others for ‘advice/guidance’ on how to properly repent of my ways.

Sorry to all. 😬

[JasonEvans]

Somehow I managed to put 200 on Utah -4 tonight (against Minnesota).

Minnesota is coached by Richard Pitino, the son of Rick Pitino who was the coach at Louisville when they joined the ACC so maybe you got confused and thought Minnesota was in the ACC.

Sorry man, that is the best I can come up with here ;)

[Fish80]

Duke -28.5 over Georgia State, O/U 150.5. We need a 90 to 61 victory.

[Bob Green]

Ugh...I mistakenly bet on Georgia State +28.5 when I meant to bet on Duke to cover. Lack of attention to detail bit me in the butt.

Oh well, now I will root for Duke to win by 28 points. :cool:

[Green Wave Dukie]

Ugh...I mistakenly bet on Georgia State +28.5 when I meant to bet on Duke to cover. Lack of attention to detail bit me in the butt.

Oh well, now I will root for Duke to win by 28 points. :cool:


Bob, you could have made an even dumber mistake. Trust me.

[richardjackson199]

James 5:16 - ‘Therefore, confess you’re sins to one another ...’

Somehow I managed to put 200 on Utah -4 tonight (against Minnesota). This is my 3rd year doing this (being in the contest in general - not necessarily failing to play by the rules). I know better.

I also know the drill. Hopefully they don’t cover and I move on. If I ‘win’ I’ll consult RichardJackson or others for ‘advice/guidance’ on how to properly repent of my ways.

Sorry to all. ��

If this happens to you or anybody else, just let me know if you need me to pick a loser for you. It's a gift! :cool:

[CameronBlue]

If this happens to you or anybody else, just let me know if you need me to pick a loser for you. It's a gift! :cool:

I can manage quite well on my own thank you very much. Well, THAT was a veritable bloodletting. I went 2 for 7 and honestly felt like it could have been worse. And maybe this is a first: to the extent that I can tell* no one finished in positive territory on the evening. At least I didn't fall for picking Duke at -28. This team just doesn't have that kindof firepower.

[Fish80]

Tough day yesterday ... went 0-5, down 2750 fictional monetary units. ouch.

[du_bb1]

should have known better than to bet on Manning coached team

[CameronBlue]

should have known better than to bet on Manning coached team

Yes, Wake is quickly descending to NC State status "teams that make professional gamblers cry".

[JasonEvans]

Tough day yesterday ... went 0-5, down 2750 fictional monetary units. ouch.

Yeah, the 15th was a bloodbath. I went 0-6 but I thankfully made smallish bets so I only lost 1540 on the day. Still, brutally bad!

[du_bb1]

the inevitable fall into the abyss, it was just a matter of time

[devildeac]

the inevitable fall into the abyss, it was just a matter of time

Someone mention The Abyss:

https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/63/34420/

[Fish80]

NC State by 31.5 over Alcorn State? I don’t think so. Too many points.

[du_bb1]

Someone mention The Abyss:

https://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/63/34420/

That would be a great abyss to fall into !

[CameronBlue]

At the risk of cluing everyone in to some sweet betting action the team currently ranked #1 in both polls is a 19.5 point dog to a team that doesn't even show up in the "others receiving votes" category? For a game to be played in the Garden, said #1 team's Northern home court?? That's gotta be a mistake.

[JasonEvans]

At the risk of cluing everyone in to some sweet betting action the team currently ranked #1 in both polls is a 19.5 point dog to a team that doesn't even show up in the "others receiving votes" category? For a game to be played in the Garden, said #1 team's Northern home court?? That's gotta be a mistake.

Shhhhhhhh!!!!

Major glitch! Hop on it before they fix it.

[Nrrrrvous]

At the risk of cluing everyone in to some sweet betting action the team currently ranked #1 in both polls is a 19.5 point dog to a team that doesn't even show up in the "others receiving votes" category? For a game to be played in the Garden, said #1 team's Northern home court?? That's gotta be a mistake.

Was wondering if I was the only one noticing that...

[CameronBlue]

Was wondering if I was the only one noticing that...

And thanks... it didn't register till I was scoping out others' picks. Saw yours and thought, wait WHAT!

[JasonEvans]

It has been fixed... you snooze, you lose. Looks like about a half dozen of us are going to make some easy money tonight by hopping on the glitch line before it was corrected. It is a good thing as I was 2-8 yesterday for -1800 units. Ouch!

[JasonEvans]

It has been fixed... you snooze, you lose. Looks like about a half dozen of us are going to make some easy money tonight by hopping on the glitch line before it was corrected.

So, ummm... I guess I am rooting for Duke to win by about 18. Seems strange.

[Rich]

It has been fixed... you snooze, you lose. Looks like about a half dozen of us are going to make some easy money tonight by hopping on the glitch line before it was corrected. It is a good thing as I was 2-8 yesterday for -1800 units. Ouch!

I think they wiped out all those bets - mine shows that I haven't bet on the Duke game even though I know I did.

[Rich]

I think they wiped out all those bets - mine shows that I haven't bet on the Duke game even though I know I did.

It's not letting me re-pick the game that it seemingly wiped out even though it's not showing up as a Pending Pick. :confused:

[Nrrrrvous]

It's not letting me re-pick the game that it seemingly wiped out even though it's not showing up as a Pending Pick. :confused:

Same here. Hope they fix that!

[JasonEvans]

Same here. Hope they fix that!

Covers tells me:

Hello Jason,

You are not singled out here, all participants who entered a play on the erroneous line had their plays voided.

This is common practice within the contests when a line that far off is available.

Booo!!

[JasonEvans]

Apparently, if this happened in Vegas they would deem it an "obvious line error" and legally they could refuse to pay. Grrrrrrrr.

[Nrrrrvous]

Covers tells me:


Booo!!

Not too upset about the error. Still would like to put a bet on the game. You'd think they could fix that.

[TheOldBattleship]

...and I've just accidentally bet on the North Carolina A&T/Nicholls State matchup. I can't remember if it's better for me if the non-ACC bet turns out to be a win or a loss, but whichever it is, I hope it's that.

[left_hook_lacey]

Not seeing a line for tonight's game yet. If Duke comes out a -19 point under dog, y'all be patient. 😂

[Fish80]

...and I've just accidentally bet on the North Carolina A&T/Nicholls State matchup. I can't remember if it's better for me if the non-ACC bet turns out to be a win or a loss, but whichever it is, I hope it's that.

Better if it’s a loss, then you don’t have to “give” back any ill gotten gains.

[Bob Green]

Not seeing a line for tonight's game yet. If Duke comes out a -19 point under dog, y'all be patient. 😂

There still isn’t a line posted for tonight.

I took Davidson (-8) over Wake Forest.

[Fish80]

The Duke v Georgetown line is up, all the way at the bottom at 9:30. I thought they were the first game at 7:00?

[Rich]

The Duke v Georgetown line is up, all the way at the bottom at 9:30. I thought they were the first game at 7:00?

It's the second game, but the first game is at 5PM. Tip off will probably be around 7:30.

[Bob Green]

I went 0-2 yesterday so I am following that up by betting on State to cover a 15 point spread.

Excuse me while I go visit my therapist.

[Fish80]

I went 0-2 yesterday so I am following that up by betting on State to cover a 15 point spread.

Excuse me while I go visit my therapist.

0-3 for me yesterday. Also taking state to cover and in a moment of total insanity took the over on UVA. :eek:

[du_bb1]

I knew the spread was too much, but could not stop myself from betting for the Devils

[Fish80]

Went 1-1 yesterday on FSU v Purdue. Missed the over by 1 point.

Looking for some good action today.

[du_bb1]

may be in the red in AM but what the heck !

[CameronBlue]

may be in the red in AM but what the heck !

If I go 10-0 tonight I'll be in first place!!

[du_bb1]

"aspirations of greatness are the bedrock of our society"

quote someone maybe.....

[Fish80]

Louisville???? What are they feeding those birds.

[left_hook_lacey]

Louisville???? What are they feeding those birds.

KFC?

[JasonEvans]

Holy smokes... the OU on the Virginia Purdue game is 103... and I am seriously considering taking the under. I don't think I have ever seen an OU that low in a college game.

[-jk]

Holy smokes... the OU on the Virginia Purdue game is 103... and I am seriously considering taking the under. I don't think I have ever seen an OU that low in a college game.

First to 40?

-jk

[du_bb1]

All hail Troublemaker--6-0 yesterday--62+ % cumulative-very impressive

[Fish80]

All hail Troublemaker--6-0 yesterday--62+ % cumulative-very impressive

Yes, very impressive. Hail to the Troublemaker!

I took the over on UVA tonight. What is wrong with me?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Is the site frozen? I can't get it to work....signed out and back in....

[Bob Green]

Is the site frozen? I can't get it to work...signed out and back in...

Site works for me. I just took the Over (101) in the UVa game.

[Bob Green]

At under 8 timeout, 1st half, Purdue 21 Virginia 9. 30 points total. On pace for 100 points.

[Bob Green]

109 total points scored in Virginia game so the Over bets win.

[Fish80]

I’m am in a deep December slump, 6-11 so far this month. I just need to reverse all my bets and I’ll be doing great.

Troublemaker is still on a roll ... and TheOldBattleSheep is running a very impressive win percentage.

Nothing to bet on today. :(

[Troublemaker]

All hail Troublemaker--6-0 yesterday--62+ % cumulative-very impressive


Yes, very impressive. Hail to the Troublemaker!

I took the over on UVA tonight. What is wrong with me?

Thanks for the kind words, guys. As always, a lot of luck goes into this even if I believe I'm skilled as well. From my perspective, I'll hit a cold streak at some point and hopefully I can react well to it and not tilt.

[jv001]

Thanks for the kind words, guys. As always, a lot of luck goes into this even if I believe I'm skilled as well. From my perspective, I'll hit a cold streak at some point and hopefully I can react well to it and not tilt.

I sure am glad you're not in my fantasy football league. :cool: GoDuke!

[du_bb1]

Also kudos to old battleship---71.4+ % Wow !

[TheOldBattleship]

Also kudos to old battleship---71.4+ % Wow !

Thanks for the kind words, but that % conceals two important truths: 1) I have one win that was a non-ACC game that'll have to come out of my score eventually, and 2) it's high because of low volume, and volume is low because I forgot my password for a while and couldn't log in to make picks.

[JasonEvans]

I have one win that was a non-ACC game that'll have to come out of my score eventually

Please make a pick to reverse the winnings and post your pick here so all of us can see your attempt to bet on a loser. This really should be done as quickly as possible.

[Bob Green]

I bet on Duke to cover (-7) against Virginia Tech. Blacksburg has been tough in recent years so the players will have to bring their “A” game.

[TheOldBattleship]

Please make a pick to reverse the winnings and post your pick here so all of us can see your attempt to bet on a loser. This really should be done as quickly as possible.

Ah, gotcha. I'm betting 500 on Columbia +3.5 against Bryant tonight at 7, and will be incredibly irritated if Columbia doesn't lose by at least ten.

[TheOldBattleship]

Ah, gotcha. I'm betting 500 on Columbia +3.5 against Bryant tonight at 7, and will be incredibly irritated if Columbia doesn't lose by at least ten.

Well, that was a bummer. I'll pick another (two, I guess?) for tomorrow.

[Fish80]

Well, that was a bummer. I'll pick another (two, I guess?) for tomorrow.

Funny. It is hard to lose on purpose. 😄

[TheOldBattleship]

Funny. It is hard to lose on purpose. 😄


Please make a pick to reverse the winnings and post your pick here so all of us can see your attempt to bet on a loser. This really should be done as quickly as possible.

It's hard to pick non-ACC games against the spread, too. Anyway, tomorrow's two to lose: 500 on Nebraska +11.5 against Creighton and 500 on St. Joes +16 against Nova. Fingers crossed.

[Troublemaker]

It's hard to pick non-ACC games against the spread, too. Anyway, tomorrow's two to lose: 500 on Nebraska +11.5 against Creighton and 500 on St. Joes +16 against Nova. Fingers crossed.

Jason can correct me if wrong, but you're allowed to pick losers in ACC games to make up the debt. That'd be funny though if the punishment is the reverse of the usual rules.

[JasonEvans]

Jason can correct me if wrong, but you're allowed to pick losers in ACC games to make up the debt. That'd be funny though if the punishment is the reverse of the usual rules.

Yup, you can pick an ACC game to take care of your debt (which is currently 1000 units). But, be sure to post to this thread with the pick in advance of the game so we know which game you are picking to be a loser and which is just a regular pick.

[du_bb1]

Thanks for the kind words, but that % conceals two important truths: 1) I have one win that was a non-ACC game that'll have to come out of my score eventually, and 2) it's high because of low volume, and volume is low because I forgot my password for a while and couldn't log in to make picks.


Still darn good

[TheOldBattleship]

Yup, you can pick an ACC game to take care of your debt (which is currently 1000 units). But, be sure to post to this thread with the pick in advance of the game so we know which game you are picking to be a loser and which is just a regular pick.

That is terrific to know, thanks! Hoping that my two today come through and this is all a moot point, though.

[JasonEvans]

That is terrific to know, thanks! Hoping that my two today come through and this is all a moot point, though.

Bad news... you got one right and one wrong. This means you still owe us 1000 units.

Now, the really bad news: Though you did nothing to wipe out your debt, you lost 50 credits due to the vig. The game you lost cost you 550 and the game you won gained you 500. In our book, you still need to find 1000 worth of losing wagers (which will be -1100 on your bottom line). So, you made no progress but also lost 50 units.

Sorry, that is the penalty for betting on the wrong game and then failing to quickly wipe out your ill-gotten gains. As you can see, this could become problematic as it goes on and on and on ;)

Again, please post your losing picks here so we can track the progress.

-Jason "this could become a fun spectator sport" Evans

[Bob Green]

Carolina at Virginia is a tough game to pick as I have no confidence in either team’s offense. I went with Carolina (+4) because Virginia looked totally inept against Purdue. This is a win win wager as it isn’t going to upset me if Virginia wipes the floor with Carolina.

I also took Florida State (-10.5) to cover at home against Clemson.

[du_bb1]

Went the other way on Va game, without Bacot hoping cheaters O will be even more inept. Also went w FSU, think Clemson is in deep trouble which means they will win by 20

[NYBri]

Oh, how the once mighty have fallen.

I am in dead last...by a long shot...with the very real chance of cashing out with -5000 today.

Humble sigh.

:cool:

[Green Wave Dukie]

Oh, how the once mighty have fallen.

I am in dead last...by a long shot...with the very real chance of cashing out with -5000 today.

Humble sigh.

:cool:


Having seen you be awarded the ‘Green Jacket’ in multiple years in the past, this is indeed amazing.

What is even more amazing is you are currently at 50% accuracy - and as you say, teetering on the brink of going out.

That is REALLY amazing.

[Bob Green]

Florida State wins by 19 points to cover the spread. :cool:

[Green Wave Dukie]

Uhhhh Utah and Minnesota are NOT in the ACC. GreenWaveDukie has broken the rules of the contest by betting on Utah to cover a 4 point spread tonight.

GreenWave, if Utah does cover, you will be required to post here in this thread about your efforts to undo those ill-gotten gains. Failure to do so will result in your expulsion from the contest. I hope, for your sake, that Utah fails to cover.


James 5:16 - ‘Therefore, confess you’re sins to one another ...’

Somehow I managed to put 200 on Utah -4 tonight (against Minnesota). This is my 3rd year doing this (being in the contest in general - not necessarily failing to play by the rules). I know better.

I also know the drill. Hopefully they don’t cover and I move on. If I ‘win’ I’ll consult RichardJackson or others for ‘advice/guidance’ on how to properly repent of my ways.

Sorry to all. 😬


Minnesota is coached by Richard Pitino, the son of Rick Pitino who was the coach at Louisville when they joined the ACC so maybe you got confused and thought Minnesota was in the ACC.

Sorry man, that is the best I can come up with here ;)


Going back to 11/15/19, I wanted to put this one to rest, so Jason doesn't come arrest me and seize any of my future 'winnings'.

Turned out that Utah won by exactly 4, so it was a push, and I believe other than embarrassment for my stupidity, I am free from other punishment.

[CameronBlue]

Whew, finally back in the plus column if only a measly 950 points. Well, let's see if I can close this thing out in a week to 10 days.

[du_bb1]

Oh, how the once mighty have fallen.

I am in dead last...by a long shot...with the very real chance of cashing out with -5000 today.

Humble sigh.

:cool:

This could change quickly--remember the fat lady !

[TheOldBattleship]

Bad news... you got one right and one wrong. This means you still owe us 1000 units.

Now, the really bad news: Though you did nothing to wipe out your debt, you lost 50 credits due to the vig. The game you lost cost you 550 and the game you won gained you 500. In our book, you still need to find 1000 worth of losing wagers (which will be -1100 on your bottom line). So, you made no progress but also lost 50 units.

Sorry, that is the penalty for betting on the wrong game and then failing to quickly wipe out your ill-gotten gains. As you can see, this could become problematic as it goes on and on and on ;)

Again, please post your losing picks here so we can track the progress.

-Jason "this could become a fun spectator sport" Evans

Brutal. Ok, I'm going for two non-ACC games (pretty thin on the ACC front these days) to lose tomorrow. Penn St. +1 vs Maryland (feel both nervous and dirty about this one) and Connecticut +2.5 vs Indiana. Really hoping that both come through, that's for sure. I've been on a pretty steep losing curve since picking that first non-ACC game!

[CameronBlue]

-Jason "this could become a fun spectator sport" Evans

I'm amused. The Vig Death was foretold in Revelations. Or maybe by Nostradamus and his magic 8 ball.

[rsvman]

I'm amused. The Vig Death was foretold in Revelations. Or maybe by Nostradamus and his magic 8 ball.

Pedantic quibble, but it's Revelation, not Revelations. Almost everybody thinks it's plural, but it's not.

[TheOldBattleship]

Brutal. Ok, I'm going for two non-ACC games (pretty thin on the ACC front these days) to lose tomorrow. Penn St. +1 vs Maryland (feel both nervous and dirty about this one) and Connecticut +2.5 vs Indiana. Really hoping that both come through, that's for sure. I've been on a pretty steep losing curve since picking that first non-ACC game!

This is going poorly for me already.

[CameronBlue]

Pedantic quibble, but it's Revelation, not Revelations. Almost everybody thinks it's plural, but it's not.

I'm doomed either way.

[CameronBlue]

I'm doomed either way.

But omen to the religiously endangered aside, do we also have to put up with bad grammar? Someone didn't proof their work.

[TheOldBattleship]

Brutal. Ok, I'm going for two non-ACC games (pretty thin on the ACC front these days) to lose tomorrow. Penn St. +1 vs Maryland (feel both nervous and dirty about this one) and Connecticut +2.5 vs Indiana. Really hoping that both come through, that's for sure. I've been on a pretty steep losing curve since picking that first non-ACC game!

And 1-1 again today, leaving me still 2 games to make up. For my next games to lose, I'm going with Chattanooga +13 against VaTech and Illinois +1.5 against Michigan. 0-2, here we come (I hope).

[richardjackson199]

You guys know a lot more about sports gambling than me. I'm in Vegas for the weekend and will probably place a few bets for fun. No big deal if I lose them all. Do any of you see any betting odds you like?
I'm thinking of betting UFC 245 as this looks like one of the best UFC cards in a long time. I'm thinking of maybe taking Usman -175; Nunes -280; Volkanovski +150; Moraes -200; Yan -475; and I'm not sure what to do with Geoff Neal -245 vs Mike Perry +205 (probably won't touch that one). You can also do things like Parlays: like Aldara and Yan bet $40 to make $80; Matt Brown & Max Holloway bet $50 to make $54; or Amanda Nunes and Moraes bet $50 to make $52.
I'm also pretty down on the Panthers. So I might take Seattle to cover -6.5

See any bets you like? Or any of mine above that you hate? No worries if you like something and it loses. I don't care - just here to have fun. :cool:

[JasonEvans]

See any bets you like?

https://66.media.tumblr.com/aacdee1f8422006cc2798519b471f5e7/tumblr_o6jjg87jqD1v3qgeko1_400.gifv

[richardjackson199]

https://66.media.tumblr.com/aacdee1f8422006cc2798519b471f5e7/tumblr_o6jjg87jqD1v3qgeko1_400.gifv

Ha! I thought same thing and already won $200 on that bet. Got me back to up $70 Net after hitting a Green 00 when I bet on 2 rows of numbers on outside. Yes I know how stupid roulette is. But I was at a conference all week doing all 30 hours of CME I needed for the year, so I didn't have time to study my poker books which I always do before playing these guys out here. So no poker this trip. Just brainless stuff. :cool:

[Bob Green]

Multiple ACC teams in action today after a couple of dark days so I placed four bets first thing this morning.

Kentucky (-15) over Georgia Tech
Xavier (-5.5) over Wake Forest
Syracuse at Georgetown Under 147
UCLA at Notre Dame Over 138

I need to get a streak going hopefully it is a winning streak.

[Troublemaker]

See any bets you like? Or any of mine above that you hate? No worries if you like something and it loses. I don't care - just here to have fun. :cool:

Hey Richard, the leader of this competition has 3 bets for today, and I feel pretty good about going 2-1. You could choose to tail me if you want.

Good luck on your betting, my friend!

[NYBri]

Okay. In keeping with trying to bet on all games on both O/U and ATS, I am all in today.

12 bets. If I don't break .500 for the day, I'll be out since it would take me beyond -5000.

:cool:

[left_hook_lacey]

Starting to regret picking Kentucky to cover against GA Tech.

[NYBri]

I am toast.

😎

[Troublemaker]

I am toast.

😎

Game recognizes game. Sorry to see you leave so soon this year, brother, but have no doubt, you are a very good gambler. (It takes one to know one perhaps :-) Poop happens sometimes in gambling, and even a very good gambler can go on a bad streak.

As it stands, I believe you and I are the only two 2-time bracelet winners in this Degenerates league. (Green Wave, I've shifted from the golf analogy that wasn't catching on to the World Series of Poker analogy for our league which is much more appropriate, arguably too on-the-nose which is why I had tried to avoid it). There are several others that have won one bracelet each, so if I hang on in this current competition, I'll become the first 3-time bracelet winner.

Anyway, there's no shame in bowing out early here, NYBri. We'll see you in a few months for the NCAA tournament competition.

[NYBri]

Game recognizes game. Sorry to see you leave so soon this year, brother, but have no doubt, you are a very good gambler. (It takes one to know one perhaps :-) Poop happens sometimes in gambling, and even a very good gambler can go on a bad streak.

As it stands, I believe you and I are the only two 2-time bracelet winners in this Degenerates league. (Green Wave, I've shifted from the golf analogy that wasn't catching on to the World Series of Poker analogy for our league which is much more appropriate, arguably too on-the-nose which is why I had tried to avoid it). There are several others that have won one bracelet each, so if I hang on in this current competition, I'll become the first 3-time bracelet winner.

Anyway, there's no shame in bowing out early here, NYBri. We'll see you in a few months for the NCAA tournament competition.

Indeed!
😎

[richardjackson199]

You guys know a lot more about sports gambling than me. I'm in Vegas for the weekend and will probably place a few bets for fun. No big deal if I lose them all. Do any of you see any betting odds you like?
I'm thinking of betting UFC 245 as this looks like one of the best UFC cards in a long time. I'm thinking of maybe taking Usman -175; Nunes -280; Volkanovski +150; Moraes -200; Yan -475; and I'm not sure what to do with Geoff Neal -245 vs Mike Perry +205 (probably won't touch that one). You can also do things like Parlays: like Aldara and Yan bet $40 to make $80; Matt Brown & Max Holloway bet $50 to make $54; or Amanda Nunes and Moraes bet $50 to make $52.
I'm also pretty down on the Panthers. So I might take Seattle to cover -6.5

See any bets you like? Or any of mine above that you hate? No worries if you like something and it loses. I don't care - just here to have fun. :cool:

My post from a few days ago. Regrettably, after this post I did lose and go down $1930 on Roulette single Zero after bringing $2000 to gamble and have fun with in Vegas. I had $70 left from the gambling slush fund, and bet it on UFC parlay (as above) on Brown, Usman, Nunes, Moraes, Yan, and Neal. I was too scared to bet on the Holloway Volkanovski fight because 2 UFC followers I trust felt strongly Holloway would win. So I left that one off the parlay because I liked Volkanovski. I have never won a parlay before going 6-0 tonight!, but I just turned that $70 into $470 with the parlay. That didn't feel enough so I bet roulette on Red and doubled it to $800 late profit rather than $400. This leaves me still down about $1130 for trip. But that feels so much better than being down $1930. So last decision is should I buy in $800 minimum buy into high stakes poker game or quit while I'm behind. :cool: Bellagio tells me a huge buy-in poker tourney on TV starts on Monday and pros are in town. Hmm... :cool:

ps NYBri is a stud and I've lost beer to him. If he or Troublemaker tells me a smarter bet tomorrow I'll take it.

[Bob Green]

I went 0 - 4 yesterday to fall way down the leaderboard. More bets will be placed today as I begin the long climb back toward the top.

[Troublemaker]

So last decision is should I buy in $800 minimum buy into high stakes poker game or quit while I'm behind. :cool: Bellagio tells me a huge buy-in poker tourney on TV starts on Monday and pros are in town. Hmm... :cool:

ps NYBri is a stud and I've lost beer to him. If he or Troublemaker tells me a smarter bet tomorrow I'll take it.

Ha, I wonder how often anyone has asked that question and then not sat down at a table? Good luck either way, Richard, and congrats on the parlay!

For today, I sort of like UNC and the over in their game (took both in Degenerates and in real life) even though I was more confident in the plays yesterday. Since parlays might be magic for you this weekend, I would parlay UNC and over for a portion of the bet if you're feeling frisky. So, for example, if you wanted to bet $200 on this game, I'd put $100 on UNC spread by itself and another $100 on the UNC spread / over parlay.

I wish I had some NFL plays to give you but I've gotten behind on prepping for that sport due to being busy with life.


I went 0 - 4 yesterday to fall way down the leaderboard. More bets will be placed today as I begin the long climb back toward the top.

You're another good gambler, Bob, as you always seem to be among the leaders in these things. Good luck!

[Troublemaker]

For today, I sort of like UNC and the over in their game (took both in Degenerates and in real life) even though I was more confident in the plays yesterday. Since parlays might be magic for you this weekend, I would parlay UNC and over for a portion of the bet if you're feeling frisky. So, for example, if you wanted to bet $200 on this game, I'd put $100 on UNC spread by itself and another $100 on the UNC spread / over parlay.

Abort, abort, Richard! If it's not too late. UNC has major injury issues, as apparently Cole Anthony and Leaky Black are out.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Abort, abort, Richard! If it's not too late. UNC has major injury issues, as apparently Cole Anthony and Leaky Black are out.

Yeah, can I abort the 300 I put on UNC, too?

[left_hook_lacey]

Yeah, can I abort the 300 I put on UNC, too?

I took Wofford and the under.

[richardjackson199]

Abort, abort, Richard! If it's not too late. UNC has major injury issues, as apparently Cole Anthony and Leaky Black are out.

Ha Thanks! No worries, I didn't bet on it anyway. When you said you weren't as confident as your plays from yesterday, I combined that with just not feeling like rooting for the heels on my vacation. So I didn't bet anything and am now thoroughly enjoying them losing to Wofford again as I should.

It was so much fun yesterday turning that last $70 into $800, I think I am actually done gambling this trip. I still have that good taste in my mouth even though I'm down $1130. I'll be back in May, to take my wife to see Lady Gaga and ready to play some poker. :cool:

[left_hook_lacey]

Ha Thanks! No worries, I didn't bet on it anyway. When you said you weren't as confident as your plays from yesterday, I combined that with just not feeling like rooting for the heels on my vacation. So I didn't bet anything and am now thoroughly enjoying them losing to Wofford again as I should.

It was so much fun yesterday turning that last $70 into $800, I think I am actually done gambling this trip. I still have that good taste in my mouth even though I'm down $1130. I'll be back in May, to take my wife to see Lady Gaga and ready to play some poker. :cool:

Were there any tables to make any pie bets? If not, Vegas is no DBR. 😁

[Fish80]

Grrrr Clemson cost me 550 FMU’s. Paper tigers.

[devildeac]

Ha Thanks! No worries, I didn't bet on it anyway. When you said you weren't as confident as your plays from yesterday, I combined that with just not feeling like rooting for the heels on my vacation. So I didn't bet anything and am now thoroughly enjoying them losing to Wofford again as I should.

It was so much fun yesterday turning that last $70 into $800, I think I am actually done gambling this trip. I still have that good taste in my mouth even though I'm down $1130. I'll be back in May, to take my wife to see Lady Gaga and ready to play some poker. :cool:

I see what you did there:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bESGLojNYSo

[richardjackson199]

Were there any tables to make any pie bets? If not, Vegas is no DBR. 😁

I'm pretty sure they could make that happen at the Buffet :cool:

[left_hook_lacey]

Picked Gonzaga to cover tonight. I think they could win by 25+ easily

[ChillinDuke]

Picked Gonzaga to cover tonight. I think they could win by 25+ easily

I've been eyeing the under as well. UNC has struggled to score even with Cole Anthony.

At 145.5, 80-65 feels like a reasonable score. I think it really comes down to if you think UNC can score 65. I think they may struggle to hit 60. Is Leaky still day-to-day?

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

Does anyone know if KenPom's predicted scores are injury-adjusted? I suspect not. But others probably know.

- Chillin

[UrinalCake]

So far this season I am a net -490. But I am +1000 betting against UNC. Hoping to add to that total tonight ;)

[Troublemaker]

Does anyone know if KenPom's predicted scores are injury-adjusted? I suspect not. But others probably know.

- Chillin

kenpom's projections are not injury-adjusted.

BTW, early bird gets the Zags -10.5

Wouldn't mind an epic blowout, but wouldn't mind Zags by 11 or 12 tonight, either, muahahahahha

[ChillinDuke]

kenpom's projections are not injury-adjusted.

BTW, early bird gets the Zags -10.5

Wouldn't mind an epic blowout, but wouldn't mind Zags by 11 or 12 tonight, either, muahahahahha

Got them at 12.5.

Yeah, I'm not a morning person.

I'm equally intrigued by the under. I think UNC will struggle to hit 65 and maybe even 60 if Leaky is out. I dunno - struggling to pull the trigger.

- Chillin

[robed deity]

Got them at 12.5.

Yeah, I'm not a morning person.

I'm equally intrigued by the under. I think UNC will struggle to hit 65 and maybe even 60 if Leaky is out. I dunno - struggling to pull the trigger.

- Chillin

I feel like this is one of those where the basketball analysis might point to a Zags blowout, but the intangibles keep it from being one (ie- they're coming off a huge win at Arizona, everyone's down on UNC ,no Anthony is actually good for them temporarily etc.) I could see them keeping it close for a while.

Then again, I never know if this is just an emotional hedge my brain automatically creates with UNCheat.

[ChillinDuke]

I feel like this is one of those where the basketball analysis might point to a Zags blowout, but the intangibles keep it from being one (ie- they're coming off a huge win at Arizona, everyone's down on UNC ,no Anthony is actually good for them temporarily etc.) I could see them keeping it close for a while.

Then again, I never know if this is just an emotional hedge my brain automatically creates with UNCheat.

I generally agree with you and like to try to play contrarian views to conventional/obvious wisdom when betting. That said, Gonzaga also has a lot of "revenge goodwill" built up in this game which I think skews the intangible scale back toward them. They lost at Chapel Hill last year, and obviously that NCAAT Final loss is still a bitter feeling to any Gonzaga fan. I think they will go for the jugular. To your point, that could end up meaning a rout which hits the over (either because the Zags score 85+ or because it creates a high-tempo game or because garbage time allows UNC some easy buckets).

But this game is in Spokane. UNC is traveling fully cross country. The revenge factor. No Anthony and the potential for no Leaky. I like the conventional play in this circumstance. The over/under is trickier though and decently pegged, IMO.

- Chillin

[robed deity]

I generally agree with you and like to try to play contrarian views to conventional/obvious wisdom when betting. That said, Gonzaga also has a lot of "revenge goodwill" built up in this game which I think skews the intangible scale back toward them. They lost at Chapel Hill last year, and obviously that NCAAT Final loss is still a bitter feeling to any Gonzaga fan. I think they will go for the jugular. To your point, that could end up meaning a rout which hits the over (either because the Zags score 85+ or because it creates a high-tempo game or because garbage time allows UNC some easy buckets).

But this game is in Spokane. UNC is traveling fully cross country. The revenge factor. No Anthony and the potential for no Leaky. I like the conventional play in this circumstance. The over/under is trickier though and decently pegged, IMO.

- Chillin

Ah good points. I hadn't considered the "revenge" factor. Could be big for someone like Tillie, as Tre Jones showed against MSU.

[Troublemaker]

I generally agree with you and like to try to play contrarian views to conventional/obvious wisdom when betting. That said, Gonzaga also has a lot of "revenge goodwill" built up in this game which I think skews the intangible scale back toward them. They lost at Chapel Hill last year, and obviously that NCAAT Final loss is still a bitter feeling to any Gonzaga fan. I think they will go for the jugular. To your point, that could end up meaning a rout which hits the over (either because the Zags score 85+ or because it creates a high-tempo game or because garbage time allows UNC some easy buckets).

But this game is in Spokane. UNC is traveling fully cross country. The revenge factor. No Anthony and the potential for no Leaky. I like the conventional play in this circumstance. The over/under is trickier though and decently pegged, IMO.

- Chillin

Agreed. Double revenge is largely the reason I'm on the Zags as well. It's a square play for sure, but squares are right roughly 50% of the time (whereas sharps are right roughly 55% of the time [long-term]). Hopefully this is part of the winning 50%.

Two additional thoughts:
(1) Even if Gonzaga comes out flat and/or UNC gives a heroic effort in the first half and the score is like tied at halftime, I think I would *still* like Gonzaga to cover the full game. Normally mild-mannered Mark Few probably has it in him to go crazy and break a chalkboard 5 times a season, and he would push the button at halftime here. Double revenge, afterall.
(2) I'm not sure Roy has it in him to reduce possessions in a game despite being a big underdog. If anything, I could see him thinking his best chance to win this game is to push, push, push the pace and try to get easy buckets.

[left_hook_lacey]

Agreed. Double revenge is largely the reason I'm on the Zags as well. It's a square play for sure, but squares are right roughly 50% of the time (whereas sharps are right roughly 55% of the time [long-term]). Hopefully this is part of the winning 50%.

Two additional thoughts:
(1) Even if Gonzaga comes out flat and/or UNC gives a heroic effort in the first half and the score is like tied at halftime, I think I would *still* like Gonzaga to cover the full game. Normally mild-mannered Mark Few probably has it in him to go crazy and break a chalkboard 5 times a season, and he would push the button at halftime here. Double revenge, afterall.
(2) I'm not sure Roy has it in him to reduce possessions in a game despite being a big underdog. If anything, I could see him thinking his best chance to win this game is to push, push, push the pace and try to get easy buckets.

From what I've seen, the only way it's tied at half-time is if Gonzaga just stinks it up and it's like, 28-28 at the break, because UNC can't hit a bull in the arse with a bass fiddle. This is the most inept team I've ever seen UNC roll out there. I wonder when Roy knew he was in trouble with this squad? They had to be building houses with all those bricks in early practice sessions. :D

They were terrible before, lost their starting point guard and another starting role player. This is going to get ugly fast, and I'm not talking about just the Gonzaga game either. I can't believe Vegas is still giving them "close" point spreads in these marquee games.

[Green Wave Dukie]

I took the over on UVA - Stony Brook. 105.5. Not sure I'll win, but pretty confident I've never seen an over quite like that. 105.5. Wow.

In the meantime, Gonzaga is up to -13.0. Still tempted to take it.

[UrinalCake]

In the meantime, Gonzaga is up to -13.0. Still tempted to take it.

Wow, that line was right on the nose.

[devildeac]

I took the over on UVA - Stony Brook. 105.5. Not sure I'll win, but pretty confident I've never seen an over quite like that. 105.5. Wow.

In the meantime, Gonzaga is up to -13.0. Still tempted to take it.

UVa 56

Stony Brook 44

LOL

I'm watching from a distance. Gambling, even with fake DBR money, is amusing.

[devildeac]

Wow, that line was right on the nose.

As someone posted in another thread I think, "never bet on sports," as the 'Zags apparently "quit" playing with about 2 minutes left, leading by about 20.

[CameronBlue]

UVa 56

Stony Brook 44

LOL

I'm watching from a distance. Gambling, even with fake DBR money, is amusing.

Watching Virginia play basketball is like watching two prizefighters "clinch" for 12 rounds where you use the smelling salts to revive the spectators.

[left_hook_lacey]

I'm making a killing betting against this horrible UNC team. Vegas must be setting the spreads based on UNC's name alone.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I'm making a killing betting against this horrible UNC team. Vegas must be setting the spreads based on UNC's name alone.

I heard on the radio that the spread was 12.5......went to Degenerate and it was up to 14. I went for the Zags anyway....DAYYUM if it didnt end up 13.

And yeah, Vegas sets the spread based on teams reputations....because that's how many people gamble. The only thing a "spread" is - is an incentive to get an equal numbr of people betting on each side. It's a prediction of how people will bet, not a prediction on the score.

[du_bb1]

Another one bites the dust-hurt bad when Zags stopped playing and Va couldn't make a shot. One would think one should learn something while doing this-obviously not.....

[Fish80]

Another one bites the dust-hurt bad when Zags stopped playing and Va couldn't make a shot. One would think one should learn something while doing this-obviously not....

I need a shrink. Or a drink? 0 for my last 8. Horrible slump.

[ChillinDuke]

I heard on the radio that the spread was 12.5...went to Degenerate and it was up to 14. I went for the Zags anyway...DAYYUM if it didnt end up 13.

And yeah, Vegas sets the spread based on teams reputations...because that's how many people gamble. The only thing a "spread" is - is an incentive to get an equal numbr of people betting on each side. It's a prediction of how people will bet, not a prediction on the score.

Minor quibble, but as expressed multiple times before, a spread does not aim to get equal number of people betting on each side. It may work out that way most of the time, especially on games with less volume (e.g. ETSU vs Western Kentucky). But Vegas will happily put more people on one side of a bet if they have reason to believe it will maximize their profit.

Said more directly, the goal of a spread is to maximize Sportsbook profit. Period. The widespread notion that spreads aim for 50% of people on each side is false. That may play out, but it's not the intended goal just a result.

Situations arise where Vegas wants a lopsided book, for reasons not always clear. One of the examples thrown around is perception bias. Say Alabama or the Patriots are playing in their respective Championship, or any game for that matter. There is a tendency for the betting public to overweight bets on the name-brand, big-time team. Now, if the pool of money on that game is enormous (say, the Super Bowl), Vegas may very well want to stay 50/50 and get out of the way. But they also may not and may want people over-betting the name-brand if they have reason to believe it results in better risk-adjusted profit potential.

That's an example, but you get the idea.

OK, back to your regularly scheduled degeneracy.

- Chillin

[dukebluesincebirth]

Wow, that line was right on the nose.

As has been said before, its uncanny how vegas gets some of these lines so close. I'm not in the degenerates contest, but I have an account elsewhere and took the Zags minus 12 (bought a half point when the line was 12.5), so I got the W. I was sweating it the whole game. Needed it going into bowl season! Anyone with any good bowl game tips let me know!

[UrinalCake]

As has been said before, its uncanny how vegas gets some of these lines so close.

I took Miami (OH) +24 over Louisville. That game ended up being a push.

[CameronBlue]

Is it my imagination or did the Covers folks expunge the Duke-Wofford game from the betting ledgers? I was certain I had chosen Duke and the over. Pending the outcome of the game I may remember things differently.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Is it my imagination or did the Covers folks expunge the Duke-Wofford game from the betting ledgers? I was certain I had chosen Duke and the over. Pending the outcome of the game I may remember things differently.

Same for me. Had the over 142.5 (honest!) and Duke -17.5 (which I got late after it was announced Tre wasn’t playing). And I saw earlier today Troublemaker had Duke -19.

So, guess it wasn’t just me.

Also, I put in for Auburn-7.5 at the same time, which it still shows I have. Weird.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Same for me. Had the over 142.5 (honest!) and Duke -17.5 (which I got late after it was announced Tre wasn’t playing). And I saw earlier today Troublemaker had Duke -19.

So, guess it wasn’t just me.

Also, I put in for Auburn-7.5 at the same time, which it still shows I have. Weird.


Well, now it shows up and is giving me 1000 points for my 2 picks, so all is good. Or, as Emily Litella would say (thanks DiK), ‘Never Mind’.

[CameronBlue]

Well, now it shows up and is giving me 1000 points for my 2 picks, so all is good. Or, as Emily Litella would say (thanks DiK), ‘Never Mind’.

Yup, I had the over as well...at 145, which further solidifies my ignominious position as dead last in the O/U rankings and probably by a good bit, I've been there for several betting sessions now. My goal--#1 ATS (now 4th) and 31/31 in the O/U, halfway there. I had been tinkering with a COVAR using points per possession and average total possessions/game that has proven to be comically ill-conceived although it seemed it had useful predictive value as long as the RPI differential was > 30. But at least I cleared up the controversy concerning the origin of the adage "not worth a tinker's dam." Like many truisms, coined by the scorned spouse of a ne'er do well gambler. My wife is putting together a chapbook that should be out by Spring.

[JasonEvans]

Want to hear something depressing?

Peter J Swift, a player who has not wagered on a single game thus far and has a balance of 0 is in 11th place in our contest.

-Jason "I have concluded that not only are we degenerates... we are bad at being degenerates" Evans

[du_bb1]

Jason "I have concluded that not only are we degenerates... we are bad at being degenerates" Evans

I represent that! --now in the red

[Bob Green]

No lines available on Indiana vs Notre Dame and UCLA vs UNC this morning. Those are the two games I desire to wager on today.

[Troublemaker]

No lines available on Indiana vs Notre Dame and UCLA vs UNC this morning. Those are the two games I desire to wager on today.

As far as I can tell, no ACC games are up on the board as of the time of this post, strangely enough. Is someone at Covers screwing with us, haha?

There were a number of plays I wanted to make this morning. As I'll be pretty busy the rest of the day, not sure if I can get back on if the ACC games are posted later.

[Bob Green]

As far as I can tell, no ACC games are up on the board as of the time of this post, strangely enough. Is someone at Covers screwing with us, haha

VMI at Virginia Tech is the only ACC game I see listed.

[left_hook_lacey]

No lines available on Indiana vs Notre Dame and UCLA vs UNC this morning. Those are the two games I desire to wager on today.

They have no idea how what to do with UNC.

[left_hook_lacey]

No lines available on Indiana vs Notre Dame and UCLA vs UNC this morning. Those are the two games I desire to wager on today.

Vegs insider has UNC -5

[jv001]

They have no idea how what to do with UNC.

Kick them out of the ACC. GoDuke!

[Fish80]

I must be setting a new record ... down 5,050 FMU’s so far this week. 😳

Covers still doesn’t have all the ACC games up.

[Bob Green]

It is 11:47 and the 12:00 games are not available to wager. Disappointing. I’m going to keep checking straight up to tip off.

[ChillinDuke]

It is 11:47 and the 12:00 games are not available to wager. Disappointing. I’m going to keep checking straight up to tip off.

V disappointing. I'm trying to climb back into the black and have plays to make. Willing and able, over here...

- Chillin

[dukebluesincebirth]

UNC is (-3)... talk me out of betting UCLA

[left_hook_lacey]

Still no ACC games to wager on at 1pm. Did the guy that posts the ACC spreads on covers get too drunk at the office Christmas party last night and call out?

[CameronBlue]

UNC is (-3)... talk me out of betting UCLA

I don't see the UNC game listed yet.

[dukebluesincebirth]

I don't see the UNC game listed yet.

Oh okay... I’m not sure which lines you guys use, I’m not in the degenerates contest. But they are currently at (-3) on Bovada, online sportsbook.

[CameronBlue]

Oh okay... I’m not sure which lines you guys use, I’m not in the degenerates contest. But they are currently at (-3) on Bovada, online sportsbook.

Then you're too innocent to be posting in this thread. Run along sonny boy, what you see here may scar you emotionally.

[Bob Green]

Oh okay... I’m not sure which lines you guys use, I’m not in the degenerates contest. But they are currently at (-3) on Bovada, online sportsbook.

The contest is on Covers.com so the lines have to be posted there in order for us to wager.

[richardjackson199]

UNC is (-3)... talk me out of betting UCLA

ok

It really would be too good to be true for the cheats to lose again today. Ol Roy presser and the IC would be too much fun. I think the bet here is Cheats to cover -3. but ya never know... dadgummit!

[Bob Green]

Unlike yesterday there are ACC games available today so I took Virginia (-12) over South Carolina and Clemson (-4) over Yale.

[du_bb1]

From the top of the board to near bottom. Methinks I know little of this game they call basketball.....

with you Bob on Clem but went with SC, which means your Va bet should be good

[Fish80]

No games to bet on until Saturday. :eek:

[Bob Green]

No games to bet on until Saturday. :eek:

Based on my performance to date, that’s a good thing.

[JasonEvans]

https://i.ibb.co/1M15LXy/Gambling.jpg

[Fish80]

https://i.ibb.co/1m15lxy/gambling.jpg

lol

:d

[NYBri]

https://i.ibb.co/1M15LXy/Gambling.jpg

Perfect. 😎

NY “I am headless,” Bri

[Pghdukie]

What is the O/U line on Bilas using the term "SPECTACULAR " during his next broadcast ? Seems to me he uses this alot.

[Fish80]

What is the O/U line on Bilas using the term "SPECTACULAR " during his next broadcast ? Seems to me he uses this alot.

Probably about 7 spectaculars per broadcast.

[Bob Green]

I am -1650 so a couple successful bets this weekend would help my quest to get back in black. For starters, I took Duke (-28.5) and will be watching the Louisville/Kentucky line this morning.

[left_hook_lacey]

I am -1650 so a couple successful bets this weekend would help my quest to get back in black. For starters, I took Duke (-28.5) and will be watching the Louisville/Kentucky line this morning.

Against my better judgement, I have placed a wager on the Ul/UK game. It really seems like a toss up, but I couldn't resist placing a bet. It's been over a week since I have been a degenerate, well, as far as gambling goes anyway. 😁

[BandAlum83]

So I finally got in the race and promptly lost 1100 on my first game. Welcome, BandAlum83!

I also looked at the available games and passed over Louisville 10 times because it’s still so unnatural to think of them as an ACC school, especially when playing UK!

[du_bb1]

lost on both Duke and FSU-looks like am racing to the big - 5000, and Making great time !

[Phredd3]

I'm sure I'm not alone in this, but had Duke merely shot poorly from three rather than hideously awful, I'd have had a positive day. As it is, I dropped 270 FMUs and didn't lose ground on the field. Such is the life of a degenerate.

[JasonEvans]

The Navy-Virginia O/U is 98... I don't think I have ever seen a college O/U under 100. I picked the over.

I also like NC State to cover the 13.5 over App State and think Va Tech will have trouble covering 29 points against anybody... even Maryland-Eastern Shore.

-Jason "I am 2-8 over my last ten, so take these picks with a giant grain of salt" Evans

[Bob Green]

The Navy-Virginia O/U is 98... I don't think I have ever seen a college O/U under 100. I picked the over.

-Jason "I am 2-8 over my last ten, so take these picks with a giant grain of salt" Evans

I’m 3-7 over my last ten and went with Navy (+17.5) and the Over. This contest is seriously kicking my butt so far this season.

[Indoor66]

I keep telling you folks: stay away from O/U. A complete sucker bet.

[Fish80]

The Navy-Virginia O/U is 98... I don't think I have ever seen a college O/U under 100. I picked the over.

I also like NC State to cover the 13.5 over App State and think Va Tech will have trouble covering 29 points against anybody... even Maryland-Eastern Shore.

-Jason "I am 2-8 over my last ten, so take these picks with a giant grain of salt" Evans

The Navy-Virginia O/U is up to 99. I took the over. Crazy. For UVA to cover the spread and come in under, you need a score like 58 to 39.

[JasonEvans]

Virginia - Navy easily crossed the over, not even a sweat. This is just the third time Virginia has hit an over this season.

[JasonEvans]

Yale (who beat Clemson) getting 8 points against a broken Carolina team that has not played in 9 days... why yes, I will take that bet.

-Jason "if I miss this one, I will be at -4000... close to bowing out... yikes!" Evans

[-jk]

In the spirit of the season (and since the games started early this year) how about we give everyone a New Year’s bonus of $2000?

That way you can dig an even deeper hole (-$7000) before bowing out. And if you already bowed out, you can get back in.

-jk

[Fish80]

Yale (who beat Clemson) getting 8 points against a broken Carolina team that has not played in 9 days... why yes, I will take that bet.

-Jason "if I miss this one, I will be at -4000... close to bowing out... yikes!" Evans

I broke one of my own rules ... never bet on UNCheat games ... and took Yale +7.5 and the over at 133.

What the heck, I couldn’t be doing much worse. Go Yale!

[JasonEvans]

In the spirit of the season (and since the games started early this year) how about we give everyone a New Year’s bonus of $2000?

That way you can dig an even deeper hole (-$7000) before bowing out. And if you already bowed out, you can get back in.

-jk

As someone dangerously close to elimination, I like this idea!

The new limit would be put in place on Jan 1... unless folks strenuously object. Please let me know if you think this is unfair.

-Jason

[Fish80]

As someone dangerously close to elimination, I like this idea!

The new limit would be put in place on Jan 1... unless folks strenuously object. Please let me know if you think this is unfair.

-Jason

As one teetering on the brink, I would love another 2,000 FMUs! I don’t think it’s unfair if you let the under 5,000 folk back in. One or two degenerates I think.

[Fish80]

Looks like CameronBlue and NYBri are the two under -5k.

[Bob Green]

The new limit would be put in place on Jan 1... unless folks strenuously object. Please let me know if you think this is unfair.

-Jason

No objection from me. I like the idea.

[Green Wave Dukie]

No objection from me. I like the idea.

Me, too. I could use the 2,000 buffer. I've been in free fall from 4th place not that long ago.

I'm also interested to see NYBri jump back into the ring and start his ascent to the top. And a well deserved shout out to Troublemaker up there. I believe last I checked he was #1 in either O/U or ATS, and #2 in the other. THAT is impressive. (or, the rest of us are just unimpressive, take your choice!)

[JasonEvans]

(or, the rest of us are just unimpressive, take your choice!)
https://media3.giphy.com/media/12NepzoMT3RbtC/giphy.gif

[JasonEvans]

It is agreed!
https://media0.giphy.com/media/1AfrooIN0jR7VCOZp6/giphy.gif

Everyone shall get another 2000 in potential losses starting on January 1. So, if you are at -5000, you are back in the race!!

[CameronBlue]

It is agreed!
https://media0.giphy.com/media/1AfrooIN0jR7VCOZp6/giphy.gif

Everyone shall get another 2000 in potential losses starting on January 1. So, if you are at -5000, you are back in the race!!

Geoffrey Rush's beard reminds me of brisket, I mean it looks like brisket smells.

[left_hook_lacey]

Geoffrey Rush's beard reminds me of brisket, I mean it looks like brisket smells.

Must spread comments around.....

[left_hook_lacey]

Come on Yale, don't let me down, keep my streak going! I don't even care about just covering the spread, they can win this game!!

[du_bb1]

Teetering on the cusp, I wholeheartedly agree

[NYBri]

Looks like CameronBlue and NYBri are the two under -5k.

So I would mind this idea, why?

😎

[CameronBlue]

So I would mind this idea, why?

😎

Don't wish to sound ungrateful, not in the least, I'm a degenerate to the core and will gladly throw bones with Satan. I think I'd rather see a rule that requires you to bet on at least 50% of the games. Seems like a truer test of gambling degeneracy.

[left_hook_lacey]

Duke -22.5 tonight against BC.

[Bob Green]

Duke (-22) to cover is tonight’s play.

I was +1,000 yesterday winning the spread and O/U in the Yale game.

[left_hook_lacey]

Duke (-22) to cover is tonight’s play.

I was +1,000 yesterday winning the spread and O/U in the Yale game.

Was -22.5, then -22, now -21.5. I'm not sure what the bettors are seeing to have that much confidence in BC to keep it that close.

[JasonEvans]

Was -22.5, then -22, now -21.5. I'm not sure what the bettors are seeing to have that much confidence in BC to keep it that close.

Perhaps they saw a really rusty Duke a few days ago that could not hit an outside shot (other than AOC).

[Troublemaker]

Was -22.5, then -22, now -21.5. I'm not sure what the bettors are seeing to have that much confidence in BC to keep it that close.

You actually have BC +22.5, fyi. Not sure if that was a misclick or not.

Anyway, Duke is going to destroy BC tonight and I'm going to finish the day +8900. My 3-0 day today and thus +1500 would by itself be 3rd place in this competition.

[Troublemaker]

You actually have BC +22.5, fyi. Not sure if that was a misclick or not.

Anyway, Duke is going to destroy BC tonight and I'm going to finish the day +8900. My 3-0 day today and thus +1500 would by itself be 3rd place in this competition.

Well, 2-1 for +450 ain't too shabby a day, either. I got Clemson-ed, deservedly, for the pre-boast.

Happy New Year, degenerates!

[NYBri]

Don't wish to sound ungrateful, not in the least, I'm a degenerate to the core and will gladly throw bones with Satan. I think I'd rather see a rule that requires you to bet on at least 50% of the games. Seems like a truer test of gambling degeneracy.

Agreed. I try (have tried for the past two years) to bet on every game (ATS and O/U). There needs to be at least a minimal % of games (bets) that one needs to make in order to play.

:cool:

[-jk]

Agreed. I try (have tried for the past two years) to bet on every game (ATS and O/U). There needs to be at least a minimal % of games (bets) that one needs to make in order to play.

:cool:

I don't know. It's one way to learn that the only winning move is not to play.

How about a nice game of chess?

-jk

[left_hook_lacey]

Agreed. I try (have tried for the past two years) to bet on every game (ATS and O/U). There needs to be at least a minimal % of games (bets) that one needs to make in order to play.

:cool:

So we should all just bet until we're out of the contest and need a 2,000 point buffer to get back in?

I don't have the luxury of watching every single ACC team play every game. But I do know basketball. So I can only make bets based on what I've seen on the court thus far and I make bets based on that and it has worked out for me so far.

I'm against the 2,000 buffer for those that have already lost. I never got such buffer in the past.

And I'm also against the idea that someone should have to bet on a % of the games. It's my fake points, and you can't tell me how or when I should spend them.

[Troublemaker]

Players should be allowed to be as selective or indiscriminate as they want. If it's someone's strategy to seldomly bet and allow others to bet their way underneath him in the standings, so be it.

If it helps, I believe these contests have always been won by a high-volume betting degenerate. Which makes sense. You would expect most of the bottom of the leaderboard to consist of high-volume bettors and some of the top of the leaderboard as well. The low-volume guys will be in the middle generally; it's just that this particular edition of this contest is weird in that only one high-volume player is doing well (so far).

[Bob Green]

If it helps, I believe these contests have always been won by a high-volume betting degenerate.

I'm a selective degenerate, 27-25 in the current contest, and while I've consistently finished in the Top 5 I've never come close to winning.

[NYBri]

So everyone would be comfortable if, say, peterjswift, who has not placed a single bet, continues that strategy and wins this thing?

Perhaps the ACC should give teams the option of playing against only those teams they feel they can beat. A strategic non-move in the season’s chess game? 😎

Seriously though, I never meant to imply a rule that everyone has to play every game. Just a minimum of maybe 10 bets to make sure the winner actually plays.

Personally, I think it’s more fun to bet them all. I have won this thing twice and flamed out once doing that. A positive byproduct of playing every game is that I really got a greater appreciation of the teams and their season’s journeys.

But, I can appreciate a strategic selection of bets. It’s just not as much fun, IMHO. I like to have skin in a BC/Tech game in early January.

😎

[Indoor66]

I am not in the contest. That said, I do tend to make a wager or two at the Casino. Gambling has to include a strategy in order to win. The law of large numbers means that the more you play, the more likely you lose. Choosing your times, amounts and specific wagers is how you win. Sometimes that choice means no wager. For what it is worth.

[NYBri]

I am not in the contest. That said, I do tend to make a wager or two at the Casino. Gambling has to include a strategy in order to win. The law of large numbers means that the more you play, the more likely you lose. Choosing your times, amounts and specific wagers is how you win. Sometimes that choice means no wager. For what it is worth.

Wager with REAL MONEY? In that case, I would and never have placed a bet. That’s a completely different story.

😎

[du_bb1]

Had a great day--only lost $50--yea !

[JasonEvans]

I am not in the contest. That said, I do tend to make a wager or two at the Casino. Gambling has to include a strategy in order to win. The law of large numbers means that the more you play, the more likely you lose. Choosing your times, amounts and specific wagers is how you win. Sometimes that choice means no wager. For what it is worth.

It is not too late to join. Heck, you'd be high up on the leaderboard if you join now. Go to the first page of the thread for instructions on joining the pool.

There is no minimum number of bets. If you look at a line or total and see a number that you do not like, you don't have to make a wager. If I think Wake is going to lose to Va Tech by 4 an the line is VT-4, then I don't have to make a bet. That said, I sorta feel like you need to make one wager to take part in the game. So, if someone signs up but does not make a single bet, that person cannot win with a total of 0.

The 2000 cyberbucks bonus is already a done deal. Everyone can now go to -7000 before stopping their wagers.

-Jason "https://media3.giphy.com/media/dvlhaw6CsYfSrqlOac/source.gif" Evans

[Indoor66]

It is not too late to join. Heck, you'd be high up on the leaderboard if you join now. Go to the first page of the thread for instructions on joining the pool.

There is no minimum number of bets. If you look at a line or total and see a number that you do not like, you don't have to make a wager. If I think Wake is going to lose to Va Tech by 4 an the line is VT-4, then I don't have to make a bet. That said, I sorta feel like you need to make one wager to take part in the game. So, if someone signs up but does not make a single bet, that person cannot win with a total of 0.

The 2000 cyberbucks bonus is already a done deal. Everyone can now go to -7000 before stopping their wagers.

-Jason "https://media3.giphy.com/media/dvlhaw6CsYfSrqlOac/source.gif" Evans

No, that is like drinking O'Douls. Why bother?