Minutes Contest 2019-2020

[pfrduke]

Contest time again! This will remain open until tip-off of the Kansas game - all posts in before then will count. Pick the minutes per game for each of Duke's players. Minutes per game will be calculated per total team game, not just total games played by the player. In other words, if Joey Baker gets into 10 of the team's 40 games and plays 100 total minutes, his MPG will be 2.5, not 10. jv001 was last year's winner, whose projections were off by a total of 23.8 minutes across the entire team. For reference, here's last year's numbers:

Barrett - 35.3
Jones - 32.4
Reddish - 28.1
Williamson - 26.1
White - 18.8
Bolden - 17.6
DeLaurier - 16.3
O'Connell - 13.3
Goldwire - 7.9
Vrankovic - 2.4
Robinson - 1.5
Baker - 0.5
Buckmire - 0.3
Besser - 0.3


(careful readers will note that totals more than 200 - this is because the team played an overtime game. If you want to factor potential overtimes into your projections, more power to you)

[budwom]

^ good choice on your methodology, sir (or madame)!

[arnie]

Contest time again! This will remain open until tip-off of the Kansas game - all posts in before then will count. Pick the minutes per game for each of Duke's players. Minutes per game will be calculated per total team game, not just total games played by the player. In other words, if Joey Baker gets into 10 of the team's 40 games and plays 100 total minutes, his MPG will be 2.5, not 10. jv001 was last year's winner, whose projections were off by a total of 23.8 minutes across the entire team. For reference, here's last year's numbers:

Barrett - 35.3
Jones - 32.4
Reddish - 28.1
Williamson - 26.1
White - 18.8
Bolden - 17.6
DeLaurier - 16.3
O'Connell - 13.3
Goldwire - 7.9
Vrankovic - 2.4
Robinson - 1.5
Baker - 0.5
Buckmire - 0.3
Besser - 0.3


(careful readers will note that totals more than 200 - this is because the team played an overtime game. If you want to factor potential overtimes into your projections, more power to you)

I really hope your Baker example does not come to fruition.

[House P]

Contest time again! This will remain open until tip-off of the Kansas game - all posts in before then will count. Pick the minutes per game for each of Duke's players. Minutes per game will be calculated per total team game, not just total games played by the player. In other words, if Joey Baker gets into 10 of the team's 40 games and plays 100 total minutes, his MPG will be 2.5, not 10. jv001 was last year's winner, whose projections were off by a total of 23.8 minutes across the entire team. For reference, here's last year's numbers:

Barrett - 35.3
Jones - 32.4
Reddish - 28.1
Williamson - 26.1
White - 18.8
Bolden - 17.6
DeLaurier - 16.3
O'Connell - 13.3
Goldwire - 7.9
Vrankovic - 2.4
Robinson - 1.5
Baker - 0.5
Buckmire - 0.3
Besser - 0.3


(careful readers will note that totals more than 200 - this is because the team played an overtime game. If you want to factor potential overtimes into your projections, more power to you)

Thanks for organizing the contest.

Looking at last year’s thread, there were many entries which didn’t include the entire roster. Can you clarify how the results are calculated, particularly for guys who don’t play much?

If I recall correctly, previous threads have discussed how to handle guys that play less than 2 minutes per game, but I don’t remember the conclusion. It seems to me that the most straightforward way would be to require all contest participants to predict the minutes for all 12 non-redshirt players on the roster.

Just trying to determine how much effort to spend trying to figure out whether Mike Buckmire is going to play 0.4 or 0.5 mpg!

[MChambers]

Tre – 33
Javin – 22
Carey – 22
Moore – 22
Hurt – 28
Stanley – 21
White – 17
Baker – 14
O'Connell – 14
Goldwire – 7

[pfrduke]

Thanks for organizing the contest.

Looking at last year’s thread, there were many entries which didn’t include the entire roster. Can you clarify how the results are calculated, particularly for guys who don’t play much?

If I recall correctly, previous threads have discussed how to handle guys that play less than 2 minutes per game, but I don’t remember the conclusion. It seems to me that the most straightforward way would be to require all contest participants to predict the minutes for all 12 non-redshirt players on the roster.

Just trying to determine how much effort to spend trying to figure out whether Mike Buckmire is going to play 0.4 or 0.5 mpg!

As a practical matter, the guys who don't play much play so few minutes that it doesn't really matter. I had, in past years, allowed an "other" category for the collective group of players who play less than 2mpg, but also allowed people to guess those players and judged against them individually if they did - which all just proved way too complicated. So this year everyone will just be ranked individually. If you pick 1 or 0 for the walk-ons, odds are you will be off by about 0.5 minutes either way.

[Nugget]

Tre – 34
Hurt – 26
Carey – 24
Moore – 23
Stanley – 21
White – 18
Javin – 17
Goldwire – 13
Baker – 11
AOC – 11
Robinson – 2
Buckmire – 0

[whereinthehellami]

Tre – 35
Hurt – 29
Carey – 24
Moore – 23
Stanley – 20
White – 18
Javin – 18
Goldwire – 13
AOC – 12
Baker – 6
Robinson – 2

[DallasDevil]

Jones-35
Hurt-30
Stanley-25
Moore-23
Carey-23
DeLaurier-17
White-17
O'Connell-15
Goldwire-10
Baker-3
Robinson-2
Buckmire-0

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Lots of folks selling on Baker. Interesting.

[jv001]

I'm probably buying into Coach K's statements which sound like more players-more minutes this season. That said, here goes:

Jones- 35
Hurt- 30
Carey- 24
Moore- 17
Goldwire- 17
O'Connell- 16
DeLaurier- 16
Stanley- 16
Baker- 15
White- 12
Robinson- 1.5
Buckmire-. 5

I look for O'Connell, Baker, Hurt and maybe Carey to hit enough threes to make Duke a top 5-10 team. I'm still worried about Javin playing like an all-conference player and will again be in foul trouble for a good part of the ACC season. This team will probably have defense as their calling card.

GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Tre – 35
Hurt – 27
Moore – 24
Carey – 22
Goldwire – 18
Javin – 17
Stanley – 16
White – 15
AOC – 15
Baker – 9
Robinson – 2
Buckmire – 0

[Duke79UNLV77]

Tre – 35
Hurt – 27
Carey – 25
Moore – 24
Stanley – 22
White – 17
Javin – 17
AOC - 15
Goldwire – 9
Baker – 8
Robinson – 1

[Tripping William]

Never done this before, and this is completely "on the fly," but here goes nothin':

Jones 33
Hurt 27
Stanley 24
Moore 23
Carey 22
White 20
Goldwire 20
DeLaurier 15
O'Connell 7
Baker 7
Robinson 2

[devildeac]

Without involving Ymm, Beer, here's my WAG:

Jones 34
Goldwire 12
Moore 24
Stanley 24
Baker 8
AOC 13
White 16
Hurt 28
Carey 25
Javin 15
JRob 1


Nine guys playing >10 minutes each:eek:? Ok, Lucy, set up that PK again...

:o

[azzefkram]

With an extreme level of wagginess, here is my wag

Tre – 33
Hurt – 28
Carey – 22
Moore – 22
Stanley – 22
White – 17
Javin – 17
AOC - 15
Goldwire – 15
Baker – 8
Robinson – 1

Probably not realistic to have 9 players average double digit minutes but I don't think there is a huge separation in talent in players 4-9.

[Tripping William]

Without involving Ymm, Beer, here's my WAG:



With an extreme level of wagginess, here is my wag


As long as my WAG isn't DFL, I'll be A-OK . . . . . . ;)

[DukieTiger]

Jones - 33
Hurt - 30
Moore - 25
Carey - 25
Stanley - 22
DeLaurier - 20
White - 15
O’Connell - 12
Goldwire - 10
Baker - 5
Robinson - 2
Buckmire - .5
Savarino - .25
Worthington -.25

[niveklaen]

Tre – 34
Hurt – 29
Carey – 17
Moore – 28
Stanley – 19
White – 13
Javin – 24
Goldwire – 17
Baker – 15
AOC – 5

[Green Wave Dukie]

….and you prolly can't win if you don't have good picks, but that never stopped me from trying before.

Here goes:

Moore - 17
Carey - 24
Stanley - 22
Jones - 34
DeLaurier - 14
Baker - 18
Goldwire - 8
O'Connell - 13
Hurt - 26
Savarino - .2
White - 18
Robinson - 6
Buckmire - .3

[luvdahops]

Jones 35
Hurt 28
Carey 25
Moore 24
Stanley 22
DeLaurier 20
White 17
AOC 14
Goldwire 8
Baker 5
Others 2

[kAzE]

I'm not surprised to see so few entries this year. This team's rotation is probably going to be EXTREMELY fluid and difficult to predict. It's likely that the coaches aren't even close to figuring it out yet, so how the heck are we supposed to know? I think we are going to see several different starting lineups this year, and games where certain guys get a lot of minutes when they are playing well, and those same guys barely playing in other games when they are struggling. So if that turns out to be true, minutes are going to be very spread out.

Here's my random guess:

Jones – 35
Hurt – 28
Moore – 22
Carey – 20
Stanley – 20
Goldwire – 16
O'Connell – 16
Baker – 16
White – 13
DeLaurier – 13
Robinson/Buckmire: 1

I'm not predicting a 10 man rotation, just that 10 guys will average over 10 minutes per game over the course of the season. I still think K will shorten the rotation down to 8-ish towards the latter portion of the season.

[CDu]

What the hell? I'll give it a go. With the same caveat that pretty much everyone else has given (so much unknown at this point) and that I'm sure an unexpected injury will throw everything off. Though I hope not on the latter part.

C: Carey (25)
F: Hurt (27)
F: Moore (22)
G: Stanley (21)
G: Jones (36)
F: White (16)
F: DeLaurier (15)
G: O'Connell (14)
G: Goldwire (13)
G/F: Baker (10)
F: Robinson: (1)

I suspect this season has several wings slipping in and out of favor as the season progress, which aggregates like a more even distribution than any particular game would indicate.

[David Bunkley]

Jones 35
Hurt 29
Carey 20
Moore 18
Stanley 17
White 19
DeLaurier 15
Goldwire 18
O'Connell 17
Baker 8
Robinson 3.5
Buckmire 0.5

[curtis325]

This is sure to be a losing entry, but what the heck:


Jones 34
Hurt 26
Carey 22
Moore 21
Stanley 18
DeLaurier 18
Baker 17
White 17
AOC 15
Goldwire 12
Robinson 1

[Furniture]

Tre – 35
Hurt – 25
Carey – 22
Moore – 21
Stanley – 21
Javin – 19
White – 19
Goldwire – 15
AOC – 12
Baker – 9
Robinson – 2
Buckmire – 0

[sagegrouse]

Here's my guess. All the 2019 players get more minutes and ten players play a lot.

Jones 32
Hurt 24
DeLaurier 24
White 22
Carey 22
Moore 20
O'Connell 16
Baker 14
Stanley 12
Goldwire 12
Robinson 2
Buckmire 0
Total 200

[DCDevil9194]

T. Jones - 35
M. Hurt - 27
V. Carey - 22
W. Moore - 24
J. White - 21
C. Stanley - 17
J. DeLaurier - 18
A. O'Connell - 13
J. Goldwire - 14
J. Baker - 8
J. Robinson - 1
Buckmire - 0

[elvis14]

T. Jones - 35
M. Hurt - 23
V. Carey - 22
J. DeLaurier - 20
J. White - 20
A. O'Connell - 18
W. Moore - 18
C. Stanley - 16
J. Goldwire - 15
J. Baker - 12
J. Robinson - 1
M. Buckmire - 0

[DukieInBrasil]

Tre 34
Hurt 25
Moore 17
Carey 22
J-Gold 11
Javin 21
Stanley 18
J-White 20
AOC 18
J-Bake 11
J-Rob 3
Bucky 0.5

I went kinda low on Tre, Carey, Hurt, and kinda high on J-White, Javin, J-Rob, and J-Gold due to things that shall not be named as we do not want to jinx the team, which is mainly that their 1st names all start with "J", and this team desperately to hit some Js :cool:.

[Troublemaker]

Hurt
34


Tre
34


Moore
26


Carey
26


Stanley
24


JGold
18


White
10


DeLaurier
10


Baker
6


AOC
6


JRob
4


Buckmire
2

[Neals384]

Tre – 35
Hurt – 27
Carey – 26
Moore – 21
Stanley – 18
White – 20
Javin – 17
Goldwire – 14
Baker – 9
AOC – 12
Robinson – 1
Buckmire – 0

[House P]

Thanks to the ACC Network, I haven't had the opportunity to watch a single second of the preseason games. Therefore, with no "eye test" to go on, I am basing my entry on the minutes distribution from the 2009 team (with some minor adjustments). I chose 2009 as a template because that may have been the last time Duke had a relatively small talent gap between the 4th and 9th most talented players.


Jones - 34
Hurt - 32
Moore - 27
Carey - 23
White - 20
Javin - 16
Stanley - 14
Baker - 13
Goldwire - 11
O'Connell - 8
Robinson - 2
Buckmire - 0.5

Things which will either cause me to fare well in the contest or finish last:

- Hurt established himself as the clear "2nd most important player" in terms of minutes.
- Captains Jack and Javin play more than non-captains Stanley, Goldwire, Baker, and O'Connell.
- Baker plays a larger role than Goldwire or O'Connell.

Of these three scenarios, I think the first two are likely to actually happen, while the third (Baker over Goldwire or Alex) is the type of "unlikely, but plausible" scenario which would cause me to do well in the contest because not many entries predict it.

I think that one of the "top 10" is likely to find himself with limited minutes due to injury, under-performance, or mid-season transfer, I just don't have a good sense who that will be.

[jipops]

Jones 35
Hurt 28
Carey 20
Moore 16
Stanley 24
DeLaurier 20
White 17
AOC 16
Goldwire 17
Baker 5
Others 2

[House P]

As far as I can tell, it looks like 26 folks submitted entries. Here is a summary.



Player
Average
Predicted
Minutes
Standard
Deviation
Min
Max


Jones
34.3
0.9
32
36


Hurt
27.7
2.4
23
34


Carey
22.7
2.0
17
26


Moore
22.0
3.2
16
28


Stanley
19.9
3.3
12
25


Delaurier
17.6
3.3
10
24


White
17.1
2.9
10
22


Goldwire
13.4
3.6
7
20


O'Connell
13.3
3.5
5
18


Baker
10.0
4.2
3
18


Robinson
1.7
1.4
0
6


Buckmire
0.2
0.4
0
2


Savarino
0.0
0.1
0
0.25


Worthington
0.0
0.0
0
0.3



A few notes:

- Not surprisingly, there is a strong consensus that Tre Jones will lead the team in minutes. Every entry predicted that he would lead the team in minutes and play between 32 and 36 mpg. All but one entry predicted that Matthew Hurt would rank second in total minutes played (one entry predicted that he would finish tied for 1st).

- Looks like Joey Baker is the biggest wildcard based on having the largest standard deviation in predicted minutes.

- If the Kansas game is any indication, it looks like the board may have underestimated the role of Alex O'Connell (25 actual min vs average prediction of 13.3) and Cassius Stanley (30 actual min vs average prediction of 19.9) while overestimating the role of Wendell Moore (12 actual min vs average prediction of 22.0) and Joey Baker (0 actual min vs average prediction of 10.0).

[Saratoga2]

Baker 9
Carey 24
DeLaurier 16
Goldwire 15
Hurt 28
Jones 35
Moore 13
Robinson 5
Stanley 29
White 28

Others 1

[Spanarkel]

Baker 9
Carey 24
DeLaurier 16
Goldwire 15
Hurt 28
Jones 35
Moore 13
Robinson 5
Stanley 29
White 28

Others 1


^^^Umm, "you can't do that"