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View Full Version : MBB: Duke 69, Northwest Missouri State 63 Post Game thread



devil84
10-26-2019, 08:55 PM
Post your thoughts here.

scottdude8
10-26-2019, 08:56 PM
Just remember that we looked pretty pedestrian for the beginning of the first exhibition last year in Canada too. This is the first real game these guys have played together. Growing pains are to be expected. That’s why we have exhibitions.

If we look like this in exhibition number 2 I’ll be worried. For now let’s just breathe.

SouthernDukie
10-26-2019, 08:56 PM
For anyone that got to watch the game: why did Carey only play 9 minutes?

proelitedota
10-26-2019, 08:59 PM
Nice score but our shooting isn't. Can't be worse than last year.

Devilwin
10-26-2019, 08:59 PM
Saw most of it. Defense looked good. Offensively not so good. 3 point shooting was bad (2 for 16) and we missed several easy chippies. First game against a really good veteran team, so room for improvement is there.

dukelifer
10-26-2019, 09:02 PM
Jones and Hurt played wel- thank God for Minnesota. But the other Freshman had a pretty poor debut. None looked like one and done players tonight. Carey was especially bad. As good as he looked in Countdown- he was that bad tonight. Moore is a decent defender but his O needs work. We will see if this game is an outlier but I suspect not. Lots of work to do. Yes they shot lights out but Duke needs to defend the three much better. No one on this Duke team looks confident from deep.

jipops
10-26-2019, 09:04 PM
This was ugly. Early but not especially encouraging.

I’m going to wait a few more games before I overreact.

buddy
10-26-2019, 09:09 PM
For anyone that got to watch the game: why did Carey only play 9 minutes?

I think it may be because he thought he should be playing guard, was not at all aggressive down low, and committed two quick and foolish fouls. Hurt got minutes because he was aggressive in the post, and although the shots did not always drop, he took the ball strongly to the hole. I think Mr. Carey was sent a message. I hope he received it.

SCMatt33
10-26-2019, 09:09 PM
Not really too concerned with the final score itself. They must’ve made double digit legit bad threes in that game (off the dribble, heavily contested, or more than 5 feet beyond the arc). I also think that was a team that could potentially crack the top 200 in KenPom if they were D1. The big issue I see is finding a lineup that is going to be satisfactory on both offense and defense. I think they showed some spurts of having lineups that are decent on offense, though I will say I can’t see Hurt being able to repeat what he did tonight in the paint against power conference competition. The size mismatches won’t be there. I also saw some lineups that can be elite defensively, but I didn’t see any that were both at the same time. Obviously, the shooting (both foul and three) won’t be that horrid every night, but it’s a legit possibility that it’s no better than last year, and with the best offensive players being guys that are going to be off the ball, I don’t think Duke can be Final Four good without at least respectable shooting. I think you’re going to need to see at least two of Jones, Goldwire, Stanley and Moore shoot over 33% from 3 with decent volume to really have a shot at being Final Four good.

Obviously we’re just scratching the surface on the year, but I think from last week and today, the early returns are showing that there needs to be individual improvement from players. I don’t it’s a needing to work out the cohesion type of issue, and individual improvement is tougher to get during the year.

GGLC
10-26-2019, 09:09 PM
We don't really actually have any shooters other than AOC (maybe Hurt?), especially if we never get first-half-of-last-season Jack back again, so it's not really a surprise.

I think we'll need to temper our expectations for this group.

rocketeli
10-26-2019, 09:12 PM
Hmmm...it's just a first exhibition game, so provides limited information. Both teams were ragged at first. Duke wore them down with size and athleticism but NWMS can roaring back at the end with a series of circus threes. This year's freshmen are not as talented and physically mature out of the gate as last year's. Thank goodness there are other ways to succeed, but this could be a long year for the more reactive posters and those that have to tolerate them. This year's team seems intent on making it look like we had JJ Redick, Pete Maravich and the Curry brothers on the court last year as far as shooting goes. Hurt looks like an excellent candidate for this year's Great White Hope, that is the player that certain posters (all unconsciously, I am sure) will obsess about re: his minutes, etc, because he is Caucasian. Therefore it pains me to say that he is a hard working, heady player with no jumping ability. He is intriguing, but he will not be able to do the things he did today against Division One size. Carey didn't play much today--injured, sick, going small, who knows? Moore has talent, but seems to be forcing it right now. Somebody seems also to have told him he can shoot. Hope that person didn't give him any stock tips! Relatively brief appearances by Robinson, Baker and Stanley, with Robinson having some nice moments. Javin did Javin things. O'Connell had a couple of nice moments. The pod person that replaced Jack White for the first half of last season has not returned.

mgtr
10-26-2019, 09:15 PM
I would actually pay money to sit in on some practices this week. May be some serious scorching going on. Fortunately our coach has been at the helm for many years, and has righted many ships. I expect we will see radical improvement next week, or a lot of pine-riding. I wish Jack White would find his shot again -- he could be a star this year, as he does everything else well.

Dr. Rosenrosen
10-26-2019, 09:16 PM
I think it may be because he thought he should be playing guard, was not at all aggressive down low, and committed two quick and foolish fouls. Hurt got minutes because he was aggressive in the post, and although the shots did not always drop, he took the ball strongly to the hole. I think Mr. Carey was sent a message. I hope he received it.
It was a terrible matchup for Carey. NWMU played small and kept jacking up threes. Tough for Carey to play D effectively against a team like that. I think it was that more than anything.

jipops
10-26-2019, 09:17 PM
Do far I’m getting the impression that Jones didn’t actually work on his perimeter shot at all.

Then again, tonight made it look like nobody did.

Dr. Rosenrosen
10-26-2019, 09:26 PM
I would actually pay money to sit in on some practices this week. May be some serious scorching going on. Fortunately our coach has been at the helm for many years, and has righted many ships. I expect we will see radical improvement next week, or a lot of pine-riding. I wish Jack White would find his shot again -- he could be a star this year, as he does everything else well.
This is my annual statement of belief about Jack’s shot. He has a hitch in his form that he needs to get rid of. When he catches the ball, often in the corner, he quickly brings the ball down before beginning his shooting motion. I believe that hitch in his motion is screwing him up. Coaches often preach to shooters not to bring the ball down before they shoot and instead to have their hands ready and their body positioned to catch the ball and step into their shot in one smooth motion without bringing the ball down. It is truly amazing how well it works. I noticed a couple of the NWMU players did this extremely well. I’m convinced that making this subtle but important fix would help him immensely. Now, if only K and his assistants would just listen to me! :cool:

SCMatt33
10-26-2019, 09:28 PM
Hmmm...it's just a first exhibition game, so provides limited information. Both teams were ragged at first. Duke wore them down with size and athleticism but NWMS can roaring back at the end with a series of circus threes. This year's freshmen are not as talented and physically mature out of the gate as last year's. Thank goodness there are other ways to succeed, but this could be a long year for the more reactive posters and those that have to tolerate them. This year's team seems intent on making it look like we had JJ Redick, Pete Maravich and the Curry brothers on the court last year as far as shooting goes. Hurt looks like an excellent candidate for this year's Great White Hope, that is the player that certain posters (all unconsciously, I am sure) will obsess about re: his minutes, etc, because he is Caucasian. Therefore it pains me to say that he is a hard working, heady player with no jumping ability. He is intriguing, but he will not be able to do the things he did today against Division One size. Carey didn't play much today--injured, sick, going small, who knows? Moore has talent, but seems to be forcing it right now. Somebody seems also to have told him he can shoot. Hope that person didn't give him any stock tips! Relatively brief appearances by Robinson, Baker and Stanley, with Robinson having some nice moments. Javin did Javin things. O'Connell had a couple of nice moments. The pod person that replaced Jack White for the first half of last season has not returned.

I think Carey was mostly just benched because he really had trouble going out to the perimeter on defense and was over anxious on offense. They were denying him the ball early and he never got comfortable.

Moore is confusing me a lot. His shot might be the ugliest shot I’ve seen from a Duke guard in the last 15 years. His misses aren’t even close. I’m far from a shooting guru, but even I see that. Now I also think Duke is putting him in bad spots on offense. Having him on the wing “spacing” the floor is useless if no one is going to remotely respect his shot. He’s not going to see driving lanes and the only times he’s going to get the ball is if the correct play is a shot. I don’t always pay the most attention to these sorts of things when I’m watching the play, but I think he needs to be doing more screen setting, cutting, and crashing the boards to be successful. Maybe as an 18 year old McDonalds all American, he’s not ready mentally to commit to that kind of role, because he’s never had to do those things as his primary role before, but he’s going to have to learn to do those things

rocketeli
10-26-2019, 09:32 PM
Also that NWMS coach was like the anti-Gary Williams. When I saw him in that tight button down shirt with the tie and what looked like garments underneath, I thought he'd be swimming by the end of the night, but not so much as a shadow.

dukelifer
10-26-2019, 09:37 PM
I think Carey was mostly just benched because he really had trouble going out to the perimeter on defense and was over anxious on offense. They were denying him the ball early and he never got comfortable.

Moore is confusing me a lot. His shot might be the ugliest shot I’ve seen from a Duke guard in the last 15 years. His misses aren’t even close. I’m far from a shooting guru, but even I see that. Now I also think Duke is putting him in bad spots on offense. Having him on the wing “spacing” the floor is useless if no one is going to remotely respect his shot. He’s not going to see driving lanes and the only times he’s going to get the ball is if the correct play is a shot. I don’t always pay the most attention to these sorts of things when I’m watching the play, but I think he needs to be doing more screen setting, cutting, and crashing the boards to be successful. Maybe as an 18 year old McDonalds all American, he’s not ready mentally to commit to that kind of role, because he’s never had to do those things as his primary role before, but he’s going to have to learn to do those things

If Moore cannot shoot - and we have not seen enough to know- he will be at Duke for a while. Nate James was a similar player and it took him a while to figure it out. Moore will get there but we have become spoiled. Last year was an anomaly. These Freshman are not phenoms but they will be good in time.

devil84
10-26-2019, 09:51 PM
I see the tight score as a positive. Why?


Lots of youngsters who are used to being the star of their high school teams need to learn to play together and listen to Coach. The earlier they learn that, the better the team will be.
Lots of game film that can be used by Coach with the newly acquired reasons to listen to Coach.
That's probably the closest score of a game these guys have had in quite a while, especially if they were on a HS team that repeatedly was on the winning side of lopsided scores. Tightened sphincters at the end of the game may help with the two bulleted points above.


I'm not terribly worried, either. The Bearcats aren't bottom-dwellers. They were Div II National Champions in 2017 and 2019. They have regularly made the Sweet 16 or better in the last decade. They have a perfect distribution of Fr/So/Jr/Sr. We played them in 2018 in exhibition -- they return half a dozen players accounting for 123 of the team's minutes played in 2018. We return five players who account for 63 minutes played (DeLaurier, Goldwire, O'Connell, White, Robinson). We had Grayson Allen back then (21 min), and Bolden, Carter, Duval, Bagley, and Trent would still be eligible to be on the team had they not entered the draft early (another 101 minutes). It was a blowout, 93-60, leading to higher than normal minutes for the bench.

NW Missouri State is a really good, experienced team with a lot of tournament experience. There wasn't the intimidation factor of playing in Cameron for the first time as half their team has experience in Cameron. And, let me reiterate, if they have that much tourney experience, they are a very good basketball team.

I kinda like that they had a competitive game. Kansas is coming up fast, and it's better for us if we have a bit of competition than grow fat and happy feasting on cupcakes.

On a separate topic, with the advent of the Champions Classic -- meaning starting the season with a powerhouse opponent -- I've noticed more discussion (handwringing? :D) about not having set lineups. Maybe, just maybe, this ol' Coach is pretty wise and is trying some combinations in game situations, but not showing his cards with a stockpile of video for our esteemed opponent to peruse? (Kinda doubt it, but who knows?) Maybe, too, by tinkering a bit, it keeps the players on their toes in a way that can't be done in practice. Maybe, in real time, against opponents that aren't other teammates that they've gotten to know, some combinations gel better than others -- or fall apart.

In other words, it's early y'all. Too early to read through pages of gloom and doom. Enjoy the ride. We've got the best coach working with some pretty darn good talent. Half the team is young, the other half isn't as experienced as we'd like. Trust the system. Breathe. Watching these kids turn into men is a lot of fun. Don't miss it by focusing on scores!

[/soapbox]

SCMatt33
10-26-2019, 09:52 PM
If Moore cannot shoot - and we have not seen enough to know- he will be at Duke for a while. Nate James was a similar player and it took him a while to figure it out. Moore will get there but we have become spoiled. Last year was an anomaly. These Freshman are not phenoms but they will be good in time.

He would be beating expectations to shoot over 30%. His lack of shooting is as much based on his scouting reports and prep numbers as much as the scrimmage and tonight. He shot under 25% from 3 in the EYBL his last prep summer and under 20% from 3 in The U17 World Cup that same year according to nbadraft.net. If he shot 30% on the year I’d be thrilled. Unfortunately for Moore, he doesn’t get to sit behind a bunch of talented upperclassmen to develop. Today’s game is very different than it was 20 years ago. He’s got a good foundation with his size and can really have a chance to contribute on defense, but one thing he isn’t is a floor spacer on offense, and that’s ok as long as you know it and play to it

rsvman
10-26-2019, 10:12 PM
Might be we have need for Baker and his famous outside shot again this year...

dukelifer
10-26-2019, 11:27 PM
He would be beating expectations to shoot over 30%. His lack of shooting is as much based on his scouting reports and prep numbers as much as the scrimmage and tonight. He shot under 25% from 3 in the EYBL his last prep summer and under 20% from 3 in The U17 World Cup that same year according to nbadraft.net. If he shot 30% on the year I’d be thrilled. Unfortunately for Moore, he doesn’t get to sit behind a bunch of talented upperclassmen to develop. Today’s game is very different than it was 20 years ago. He’s got a good foundation with his size and can really have a chance to contribute on defense, but one thing he isn’t is a floor spacer on offense, and that’s ok as long as you know it and play to it

Most Freshman struggle unless they are special talents. I am not sure any of these guys are special. The difference between now and 20 years ago is that they will have to carry this team. Sure they will have games where they are all great or one or two are great but this is going to be a challenging year. A lot will fall on Tre to be the rock. If he could shoot I would be more confident- but that remains to be seen. Right now this team needs a dependable outside shooter and the other guards need to figure out where they score best on the floor.

gep
10-26-2019, 11:29 PM
I see the tight score as a positive. Why?


Lots of youngsters who are used to being the star of their high school teams need to learn to play together and listen to Coach. The earlier they learn that, the better the team will be.
Lots of game film that can be used by Coach with the newly acquired reasons to listen to Coach.
That's probably the closest score of a game these guys have had in quite a while, especially if they were on a HS team that repeatedly was on the winning side of lopsided scores. Tightened sphincters at the end of the game may help with the two bulleted points above.


I'm not terribly worried, either. The Bearcats aren't bottom-dwellers. They were Div II National Champions in 2017 and 2019. They have regularly made the Sweet 16 or better in the last decade. They have a perfect distribution of Fr/So/Jr/Sr. We played them in 2018 in exhibition -- they return half a dozen players accounting for 123 of the team's minutes played in 2018. We return five players who account for 63 minutes played (DeLaurier, Goldwire, O'Connell, White, Robinson). We had Grayson Allen back then (21 min), and Bolden, Carter, Duval, Bagley, and Trent would still be eligible to be on the team had they not entered the draft early (another 101 minutes). It was a blowout, 93-60, leading to higher than normal minutes for the bench.

NW Missouri State is a really good, experienced team with a lot of tournament experience. There wasn't the intimidation factor of playing in Cameron for the first time as half their team has experience in Cameron. And, let me reiterate, if they have that much tourney experience, they are a very good basketball team.

I kinda like that they had a competitive game. Kansas is coming up fast, and it's better for us if we have a bit of competition than grow fat and happy feasting on cupcakes.

On a separate topic, with the advent of the Champions Classic -- meaning starting the season with a powerhouse opponent -- I've noticed more discussion (handwringing? :D) about not having set lineups. Maybe, just maybe, this ol' Coach is pretty wise and is trying some combinations in game situations, but not showing his cards with a stockpile of video for our esteemed opponent to peruse? (Kinda doubt it, but who knows?) Maybe, too, by tinkering a bit, it keeps the players on their toes in a way that can't be done in practice. Maybe, in real time, against opponents that aren't other teammates that they've gotten to know, some combinations gel better than others -- or fall apart.

In other words, it's early y'all. Too early to read through pages of gloom and doom. Enjoy the ride. We've got the best coach working with some pretty darn good talent. Half the team is young, the other half isn't as experienced as we'd like. Trust the system. Breathe. Watching these kids turn into men is a lot of fun. Don't miss it by focusing on scores!

[/soapbox]

I"ve heard this before... That's why Coach K always tries to play the DII champions each year. NWMU *is* a very experienced, tournament-tested team... and are champions and know how to win. Only talent difference works in Duke's favor in these type of games.

I look forward to Coach K blending this team by the time Kansas rolls around. :cool:

Kedsy
10-27-2019, 12:07 AM
FWIW, in the 15 years that GoDuke has information about our exhibition games (2005 to 2019), before tonight we'd only had exhibition games with a final margin of fewer than 20 points twice (out of 30 games):

2011-12: 80-66 (14 points) over Shaw;
2013-14: 81-65 (16 points) over Drury.

Make of that what you will.

Steven43
10-27-2019, 12:23 AM
We don't really actually have any shooters other than AOC (maybe Hurt?), especially if we never get first-half-of-last-season Jack back again, so it's not really a surprise.

I think we'll need to temper our expectations for this group.

Why does it seem that in the last few years Coach K has been relatively unconcerned about recruiting guys who can shoot really well from three? You know, considering it’s fairly important, the way the game is played today, for a team to be able to shoot well from three if they want to win at the highest level.

Maybe my perception of his recruiting is wrong, I don’t know. I just feel like with Duke being able to recruit as well as any college in the country they should be consistently loaded with good-to-great three-point shooters.

Steven43
10-27-2019, 12:26 AM
Might be we have need for Baker and his famous outside shot again this year...

Don’t worry, Joey is going to make a few this year.

robed deity
10-27-2019, 12:39 AM
FWIW, in the 15 years that GoDuke has information about our exhibition games (2005 to 2019), before tonight we'd only had exhibition games with a final margin of fewer than 20 points twice (out of 30 games):

2011-12: 80-66 (14 points) over Shaw;
2013-14: 81-65 (16 points) over Drury.

Make of that what you will.

Eek. One of Duke's most offensively challenged teams and one of Duke's most defensively challenged teams.

proelitedota
10-27-2019, 01:22 AM
FWIW, in the 15 years that GoDuke has information about our exhibition games (2005 to 2019), before tonight we'd only had exhibition games with a final margin of fewer than 20 points twice (out of 30 games):

2011-12: 80-66 (14 points) over Shaw;
2013-14: 81-65 (16 points) over Drury.

Make of that what you will.


We play well enough in the season to earn a 2 and 3 seed?

LasVegas
10-27-2019, 01:29 AM
So can’t shoot and can’t create. I think we all knew what kind of year we would be in for but maybe some held out some hope. One thing that will be nice is that there really is no pressure for a title this year. Low expectations might make the stress a little better for me!

duke96
10-27-2019, 02:09 AM
Expectations for the Kansas spread after this? Kansas -7?

BigZ
10-27-2019, 03:28 AM
So can’t shoot and can’t create. I think we all knew what kind of year we would be in for but maybe some held out some hope. One thing that will be nice is that there really is no pressure for a title this year. Low expectations might make the stress a little better for me!

It could be a good thing. Hopefully we get more than one year from some of these Freshmen. If you aren’t going to win the National Championship then one and done is a failure.

arnie
10-27-2019, 07:20 AM
It could be a good thing. Hopefully we get more than one year from some of these Freshmen. If you aren’t going to win the National Championship then one and done is a failure.

Of course, one exhibition doesn’t provide enough data to evaluate, but I didn’t see “1st round draft pick after Freshmen year” talent for Wendell Moore. I suspect he plays at Duke another year.

Carey had a poor game; matchup issues, maybe, but will know more after Kansas. Stanley and Hurt showed signs of NBA talent, but not stardom. Guess, I’m agreeing with the above, we might only lose 1 or 2 freshman to the draft. And will the NBA want a point guard that does everything well except shoot?

dukelifer
10-27-2019, 09:15 AM
I see the tight score as a positive. Why?


Lots of youngsters who are used to being the star of their high school teams need to learn to play together and listen to Coach. The earlier they learn that, the better the team will be.
Lots of game film that can be used by Coach with the newly acquired reasons to listen to Coach.
That's probably the closest score of a game these guys have had in quite a while, especially if they were on a HS team that repeatedly was on the winning side of lopsided scores. Tightened sphincters at the end of the game may help with the two bulleted points above.


I'm not terribly worried, either. The Bearcats aren't bottom-dwellers. They were Div II National Champions in 2017 and 2019. They have regularly made the Sweet 16 or better in the last decade. They have a perfect distribution of Fr/So/Jr/Sr. We played them in 2018 in exhibition -- they return half a dozen players accounting for 123 of the team's minutes played in 2018. We return five players who account for 63 minutes played (DeLaurier, Goldwire, O'Connell, White, Robinson). We had Grayson Allen back then (21 min), and Bolden, Carter, Duval, Bagley, and Trent would still be eligible to be on the team had they not entered the draft early (another 101 minutes). It was a blowout, 93-60, leading to higher than normal minutes for the bench.

NW Missouri State is a really good, experienced team with a lot of tournament experience. There wasn't the intimidation factor of playing in Cameron for the first time as half their team has experience in Cameron. And, let me reiterate, if they have that much tourney experience, they are a very good basketball team.

I kinda like that they had a competitive game. Kansas is coming up fast, and it's better for us if we have a bit of competition than grow fat and happy feasting on cupcakes.

On a separate topic, with the advent of the Champions Classic -- meaning starting the season with a powerhouse opponent -- I've noticed more discussion (handwringing? :D) about not having set lineups. Maybe, just maybe, this ol' Coach is pretty wise and is trying some combinations in game situations, but not showing his cards with a stockpile of video for our esteemed opponent to peruse? (Kinda doubt it, but who knows?) Maybe, too, by tinkering a bit, it keeps the players on their toes in a way that can't be done in practice. Maybe, in real time, against opponents that aren't other teammates that they've gotten to know, some combinations gel better than others -- or fall apart.

In other words, it's early y'all. Too early to read through pages of gloom and doom. Enjoy the ride. We've got the best coach working with some pretty darn good talent. Half the team is young, the other half isn't as experienced as we'd like. Trust the system. Breathe. Watching these kids turn into men is a lot of fun. Don't miss it by focusing on scores!

[/soapbox]

We do have to give credit to the opponent - particularly hitting shots down the stretch. Duke had nearly a 20 point lead. But this Duke team has to hit shots and I cannot identify the three point shooters yet. NWMS has kids who hit shots under pressure - that is critical in the tourney. Maybe AOC will be that guy- he is the closest to a proven shooter that Duke has (unless Baker figures it out). But without that aspect of the game - Duke will need to rely on good team defense to win.

slower
10-27-2019, 09:27 AM
Haven't read the whole thread. Did DeLaurier make The Leap yet?

SCMatt33
10-27-2019, 10:12 AM
We do have to give credit to the opponent - particularly hitting shots down the stretch. Duke had nearly a 20 point lead. But this Duke team has to hit shots and I cannot identify the three point shooters yet. NWMS has kids who hit shots under pressure - that is critical in the tourney. Maybe AOC will be that guy- he is the closest to a proven shooter that Duke has (unless Baker figures it out). But without that aspect of the game - Duke will need to rely on good team defense to win.

I think people do give plenty of credit to the opponent. No one is doubting that the shooting and threes by NWMS had nothing to do with how well the defense played. I also still believe that team could crack the top 200 in KenPom if they were D1, but let’s let mistake them for a top 50 opponent. I don’t see anything on Duke’s offensive side of the court to suggest that NWMS is a D1 caliber defense. Duke only managed 69 points in 68 or 69 possessions (based on rough calculations). That’s not good any way you cut and slice it. And while some of that is on shooting, which can improve, its hard to say that you won’t see shooting numbers like that again.

And that’s not to say these guys are underperforming either. There’s a real talent gap in the back court that Duke hasn’t seen in decades. Before you say “that’s a crazy exaggeration”, I did some research after thinking about it. Unless Joey Baker magically finds something and becomes a starter, Dukes back court will have two starters that meet the following description: either a 4 star freshman based on 247 composite or a player from any class who was outside the top 50 as a recruit. Not counting transfers (since they were recruited to Duke after showing they were better than their HS ranking) I couldn’t find a single season where Duke started two such players in the back court at the same time, and only 3 seasons where any such player started more than a small handful of games in the back court. They were 2007 (John Scheyer 4 star freshman started all but one game), 2012 (Tyler Thornton started 19 games as a not top 50 recruiting and Quinn Cook started 4 games as a 4 star freshman) and 2014 (Tyler Thornton started 25 games). That’s obviously not a good trend. It certainly doesn’t mean that this team is doomed to not win a game in tourney, but I do think it’s unfair to put expectations of hanging banners and being a top 5 ranking on this team based on talent alone, but those expectations are happening by default as you see from the preseason polls in both the league and nationally.

dukelifer
10-27-2019, 10:51 AM
I think people do give plenty of credit to the opponent. No one is doubting that the shooting and threes by NWMS had nothing to do with how well the defense played. I also still believe that team could crack the top 200 in KenPom if they were D1, but let’s let mistake them for a top 50 opponent. I don’t see anything on Duke’s offensive side of the court to suggest that NWMS is a D1 caliber defense. Duke only managed 69 points in 68 or 69 possessions (based on rough calculations). That’s not good any way you cut and slice it. And while some of that is on shooting, which can improve, its hard to say that you won’t see shooting numbers like that again.

And that’s not to say these guys are underperforming either. There’s a real talent gap in the back court that Duke hasn’t seen in decades. Before you say “that’s a crazy exaggeration”, I did some research after thinking about it. Unless Joey Baker magically finds something and becomes a starter, Dukes back court will have two starters that meet the following description: either a 4 star freshman based on 247 composite or a player from any class who was outside the top 50 as a recruit. Not counting transfers (since they were recruited to Duke after showing they were better than their HS ranking) I couldn’t find a single season where Duke started two such players in the back court at the same time, and only 3 seasons where any such player started more than a small handful of games in the back court. They were 2007 (John Scheyer 4 star freshman started all but one game), 2012 (Tyler Thornton started 19 games as a not top 50 recruiting and Quinn Cook started 4 games as a 4 star freshman) and 2014 (Tyler Thornton started 25 games). That’s obviously not a good trend. It certainly doesn’t mean that this team is doomed to not win a game in tourney, but I do think it’s unfair to put expectations of hanging banners and being a top 5 ranking on this team based on talent alone, but those expectations are happening by default as you see from the preseason polls in both the league and nationally.
Duke’s teams are always highly ranked to start but this Freshman group does not have an elite player- one kid you could drop into the NBA. In the one and done run- we had Deng, Kyrie, Rivers, Parker, Okafor, Ingram, Tatum, Bagley/Carter, Barrett, Zion. All these guys - other than maybe Rivers and early Ingram- were at another level- evident from the first time on the court. Ingram just needed some muscle but his length was not teachable. There is no Freshman on this team at that level- no 1-10 pick. None that are athletic freaks or have an exceptional basketball skillset. These are very good young players who if history tells us anything are likely to get their butts kicked a few times this year. In a year or two- this group of players could be a very good team- having played a lot of games as a unit. They need a shooter however. This is going to be rough season in some ways and a fun one in others. These players will get humbled like last night and for a young player that will be hard- really hard. But none of these guys are NBA ready- and as Duval and Trent and Bolden are learning- the next level requires something extra. I hope we all understand what we have this year and hope they focus hard on D as they have a chance to be okay at that end.

DavidBenAkiva
10-27-2019, 10:56 AM
Follow the link for the box score: https://bearcatsports.com/boxscore.aspx?path=mbball&id=6380

Looking at this and it is pretty clear that NMSU was a one-man show with Trevor Hudgens pouring in nearly half their team's points while shooting 7-13 from 3 and only dishing out 4 assists against 3 turnovers. I wonder if the sophomore will transfer to a D-I team after the season as he seems to be as good or better a guard as you would see at most mid-majors.

Duke came out of the half and built a nice 18 point lead with about 10 minutes to go. But NMSU wouldn't go away and Hudgens poured in an insane number of tough 3's in the final 5 minutes. I am not sure what to make of that. Did Duke lose focus? While the team has experience, many of the key players are freshmen. This seems like a leadership issue to me. One of the key questions we be how Tre Jones asserts himself throughout the season. Can he rally the team? More than DeLaurier and White, Jones is in the position to get this team going on both ends of the court. He is not a natural scorer, but he can get others involved. That's my main takeaway - what kind of leader will Tre Jones be this year?

COYS
10-27-2019, 10:57 AM
Call me crazy, but I’m less concerned about a closer-than-comfortable win in a game in which our defense still looked pretty good. Coach K has a great track record of creating a strong offense. Honestly, 2006/2007 is probably the lone exception to that rule since 1997. And while the 07 team didn’t have the win/loss record we want, it was mostly due to a number of tough close (and slightly unlucky) close losses. The defense kept us in most games. If this years team can put together a tough defense that gives the offense time to come along, I feel pretty good with where we can end up.

SCMatt33
10-27-2019, 11:46 AM
But none of these guys are NBA ready- and as Duval and Trent and Bolden are learning- the next level requires something extra.

I think even this is an unfair comparison for some of the freshman. Based on recruiting profiles, scouting reports and ratings (all of which are very in accurate, but you have nothing better to go on),Those guys you list are comps for Matthew Hurt. In terms of where they came in at, the comps for a guy like Moore are Luke Kennard, Grayson Allen, Michael Gbinije, and Semi Ojeleye. You can throw Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer in there as well (I don’t like to use 247 for guys that old because 247 didn’t exist then so I don’t know where they get their data for it, but the old rsci still exists on basketball reference so I use that). For Stanley, the comps are more in the range of Joey Baker, Quinn Cook and Matt Jones. Most of those guys got to sit for most or all of their freshman year and the ones who did see significant playing time day 1 like Cook and Scheyer in 2012 and 2007, only did so because of talent gaps above them, not because they were necessarily ready.

fuse
10-27-2019, 12:30 PM
I’m going to do my best to neither compare this team to last year’s team, and avoid thinking about this team’s potential until end January.

devilirium
10-27-2019, 01:56 PM
Do far I’m getting the impression that Jones didn’t actually work on his perimeter shot at all.

Then again, tonight made it look like nobody did.

With apologies to JD, both K and Spatola have commented that we're not a good shooting team.

TeacherTom
10-27-2019, 03:24 PM
I was watching Hurt as they warmed up and he seemed to have a nice shot from three and he hit most of them. Alex looked as if he spent a good deal of time in the weight room. Coach kept telling them to talk with his hand signal and Tre was exhausted in the last few minutes.

arnie
10-27-2019, 03:44 PM
With apologies to JD, both K and Spatola have commented that we're not a good shooting team.

Thought Spatola did a great job announcing. He understands the team dynamics and didn’t sugarcoat the lack of freshmen leadership (no talking on D) and overall poor shooting. He seemed spot on and not afraid to share his observations.

Steven43
10-27-2019, 03:49 PM
I was watching Hurt as they warmed up and he seemed to have a nice shot from three and he hit most of them. Alex looked as if he spent a good deal of time in the weight room. Coach kept telling them to talk with his hand signal and Tre was exhausted in the last few minutes.

Almost every Duke player looks good in warmups, with no pressure and no defenders. I sincerely do hope you’re right about Hurt’s shot — in actual games, that is.

UrinalCake
10-27-2019, 05:29 PM
I don’t to overreact, but between my preseason expectations, C2C, and this exhibition my optimism for this year’s team is officially on hold. These are our guys and I will always support them, but I’m not harboring any dreams of making the final four or winning a title. Right now I’ll look for continued improvement throughout the year and maybe some small victories along the way. Maybe by March we’ll be seeing a different type of team and that would be very satisfying, but I’m keeping my expectations low.

We look like a bunch of freshmen who don’t have elite talent, which is exactly what we are. When Zion blows a defensive assignment because he’s out of position, he can recover and block the shot anyways because of his insane physical gifts. But the freshmen we have now can’t do that. Last year when our offense broke down because no one had any idea where to be, we could just give the ball to our guys and let them create out of nothing. Again, we can’t do that this year. I expect Kansas to be a bloodbath, but getting our butts kicked early in the season might not be a bad thing. We’ve had several years of coming out of the gate looking great and then failing to sustain any development. This season will really tell us whether K can still develop a team or whether he has just been relying on his phenomenal recruiting success.

And yes, if a few of our freshmen stick around then next year’s team could be really special. But I’ll hold off on those thoughts until this season is over.

Indoor66
10-27-2019, 07:01 PM
I don’t to overreact, but between my preseason expectations, C2C, and this exhibition my optimism for this year’s team is officially on hold. These are our guys and I will always support them, but I’m not harboring any dreams of making the final four or winning a title. Right now I’ll look for continued improvement throughout the year and maybe some small victories along the way. Maybe by March we’ll be seeing a different type of team and that would be very satisfying, but I’m keeping my expectations low.

We look like a bunch of freshmen who don’t have elite talent, which is exactly what we are. When Zion blows a defensive assignment because he’s out of position, he can recover and block the shot anyways because of his insane physical gifts. But the freshmen we have now can’t do that. Last year when our offense broke down because no one had any idea where to be, we could just give the ball to our guys and let them create out of nothing. Again, we can’t do that this year. I expect Kansas to be a bloodbath, but getting our butts kicked early in the season might not be a bad thing. We’ve had several years of coming out of the gate looking great and then failing to sustain any development. This season will really tell us whether K can still develop a team or whether he has just been relying on his phenomenal recruiting success.

And yes, if a few of our freshmen stick around then next year’s team could be really special. But I’ll hold off on those thoughts until this season is over.

Amazing. Giving up on a team after the 1st exhibition game. Is it 2010?

UrinalCake
10-27-2019, 08:05 PM
Just remember that we looked pretty pedestrian for the beginning of the first exhibition last year in Canada too.

True, but that game was played without Tre Jones or Cam Reddish, three months earlier, and in another country. And we won by 19.


Amazing. Giving up on a team after the 1st exhibition game. Is it 2010?

Not giving up. Just being realistic.

BlueDevil16
10-27-2019, 09:04 PM
Not really ground breaking stuff but we don’t have shooters. Tre isn’t great at shooting. JGold and Jack White frankly can’t shoot. That’s 3 guards / wings who can’t hit an outside shot. Opposing defense will go heavy on guarding Hurt and Carey who are freshmen and will struggle with the attention they receive from the D. AOC or another guard that gets major minutes needs to turn up and shoot 3s successfully.

rsvman
10-27-2019, 09:58 PM
AOC and Joey Baker are both competent shooters.

That is all.

knicknut
10-27-2019, 10:31 PM
Sorry if this was addressed elsewhere, but was Baker sick, or is he really our 11th man? Given our lack of shooting, that's saying something if he is.

Edouble
10-28-2019, 12:09 AM
I don’t to overreact, but between my preseason expectations, C2C, and this exhibition my optimism for this year’s team is officially on hold. These are our guys and I will always support them, but I’m not harboring any dreams of making the final four or winning a title. Right now I’ll look for continued improvement throughout the year and maybe some small victories along the way. Maybe by March we’ll be seeing a different type of team and that would be very satisfying, but I’m keeping my expectations low.

We look like a bunch of freshmen who don’t have elite talent, which is exactly what we are. When Zion blows a defensive assignment because he’s out of position, he can recover and block the shot anyways because of his insane physical gifts. But the freshmen we have now can’t do that. Last year when our offense broke down because no one had any idea where to be, we could just give the ball to our guys and let them create out of nothing. Again, we can’t do that this year. I expect Kansas to be a bloodbath, but getting our butts kicked early in the season might not be a bad thing. We’ve had several years of coming out of the gate looking great and then failing to sustain any development. This season will really tell us whether K can still develop a team or whether he has just been relying on his phenomenal recruiting success.

And yes, if a few of our freshmen stick around then next year’s team could be really special. But I’ll hold off on those thoughts until this season is over.

Been reading your posts for years and you are a very intelligent cake, but this "bloodbath" stuff is the most moronic sentence that you have written. Seriously...

I can't imagine why anyone would expect anything other that a competitive game where we have a shot to win near the end.

Still develop a team??? You sound like the typical negative Duke prognosticators. I mean, did you see the development of our last two title teams?

WakeDevil
10-28-2019, 12:28 AM
Not really ground breaking stuff but we don’t have shooters. Tre isn’t great at shooting. JGold and Jack White frankly can’t shoot. That’s 3 guards / wings who can’t hit an outside shot. Opposing defense will go heavy on guarding Hurt and Carey who are freshmen and will struggle with the attention they receive from the D. AOC or another guard that gets major minutes needs to turn up and shoot 3s successfully.


Anybody can shoot. I can shoot. Not everyone will score enough to our liking.

If these guys don't get a lot better and leave, Duke will have a major numbers crunch next season. Too many scholarships offered.

Steven43
10-28-2019, 12:33 AM
Anybody can shoot. I can shoot. Not everyone will score enough to our liking.

If these guys don't get a lot better and leave, Duke will have a major numbers crunch next season. Too many scholarships offered.
Whoa, that’s another thing I had not contemplated. How many definite recruits does Duke have coming in next year and how many more is the team potentially recruiting?

Dukehk
10-28-2019, 01:28 AM
I think we need to temper our expectations with this team. Some are "true" freshmen who will play like freshmen this season.

Last year's team was an anomaly.

This year we need to rely on depth and more senior leadership. There will be growing pains but hopefully we continue to develop and peak in March.

LasVegas
10-28-2019, 01:45 AM
Anybody can shoot. I can shoot. Not everyone will score enough to our liking.

If these guys don't get a lot better and leave, Duke will have a major numbers crunch next season. Too many scholarships offered.

Not really. Duke has 10 recruited players, 2 of them are seniors. That leaves 5 scholarships assuming no one leaves. Currently 5 commits in the class with a close to 0% chance every underclassmen stays.

Natty_B
10-28-2019, 07:22 AM
Been reading your posts for years and you are a very intelligent cake, but this "bloodbath" stuff is the most moronic sentence that you have written. Seriously...

I can't imagine why anyone would expect anything other that a competitive game where we have a shot to win near the end.

Last season was a bloodbath for Kentucky and they *checks notes* ended up in the Elite 8 just like Duke. I do agree though that what you see in November is sometimes what you get all season. What was the last Duke team that was better in March than in November?

killerleft
10-28-2019, 08:42 AM
Last season was a bloodbath for Kentucky and they *checks notes* ended up in the Elite 8 just like Duke. I do agree though that what you see in November is sometimes what you get all season. What was the last Duke team that was better in March than in November?

We usually do start fast, but I sincerely hope that the answer to your question is a resounding "All of them!" I'd hate to think Coach K is not capable of coaching up our players during the year and helping them improve. He's the best coach ever, isn't he?

UrinalCake
10-28-2019, 08:43 AM
I can't imagine why anyone would expect anything other that a competitive game where we have a shot to win near the end.

Still develop a team??? You sound like the typical negative Duke prognosticators. I mean, did you see the development of our last two title teams?

The team I saw looked nowhere near ready to face an elite, experienced opponent on a big stage. Maybe they’ll get there by the end of the season, but we’ve got a long way to go. As to my second point, what I meant is that it has been a long time since we’ve had a team without immediate impact, lottery-level freshmen. Reaching our potential will depend a whole lot more on both individual player development and team development, and less on simply giving the ball to our best players and letting them go.

SouthernDukie
10-28-2019, 08:55 AM
I suspect the Kansas game will be a great early season test to give the team, and us, a sense of where they really are at (not where they can be in March/April). If this first preseason game was an outlier in terms of poor play and especially poor outside shooting, we'll know it after the Kansas game. If not, then we will surely know it after the Kansas game. Either way, I'll wait till that game to gauge where I should place my expectations current to what I already expected heading into this season.*

*There was no way I expected this year's team to be anywhere close to the last several teams we've rolled out. My expectations were solid Top 15 team, but not Top 5 unless they really bonded and grew a lot (which is always possible).

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
10-28-2019, 09:00 AM
A lot of people here extrapolating a lot of inferences based on very little data.

SkyBrickey
10-28-2019, 09:01 AM
I think some people are viewing this team through Zion colored glasses.

I’m not writing them off after one somewhat disappointing exhibition game.

A week ago some were predicting Carey would be first team all ACC. Then he plays 9 minutes. It’s a process.

And yes, I expect the Kansas game to be competitive.

Sixthman
10-28-2019, 09:03 AM
The team I saw looked nowhere near ready to face an elite, experienced opponent on a big stage. Maybe they’ll get there by the end of the season, but we’ve got a long way to go. As to my second point, what I meant is that it has been a long time since we’ve had a team without immediate impact, lottery-level freshmen. Reaching our potential will depend a whole lot more on both individual player development and team development, and less on simply giving the ball to our best players and letting them go.

There is an obvious path for the team I saw on Saturday to be an elite defensive team. Good size on the wings, outstanding defense at guard, and an effective shot blocking presence come to mind. I also believe they are ahead of a lot of recent Duke teams as to transition offense. They seemed ready to run, which shouldn't be taken for granted. In this regard, AO, Tre, Jack, Stanley, and Moore all looked like effective rebounders from the weak side or coming across the lane.

The half court offense was about as discouraging as it can get. Tre was driving effectively and looked strong finishing, but almost never had an option other than to finish. Carey was getting pushed out too far in the post. The only thing we did effectively was throw it to Hurt at the elbow and let him shoot over his smaller defender. Hurt did this really well and the team seemed to enjoy watching him do it (I never saw a cutter he could have laid it off to instead). He won't be able to do that against better competition, but it's a good building block for a team finding its way. We fought pretty hard on the offensive boards, but nothing special.

SouthernDukie
10-28-2019, 09:07 AM
And yes, I expect the Kansas game to be competitive.

Based on history alone, I agree. When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team? I can't remember to be honest. So I do expect the game to be close and competitive.

AGDukesky
10-28-2019, 09:09 AM
My expectations for this team have been lower since the recruiting class was finalized. The combination of returning players and relatively fewer top 10 recruits made it obvious to me that we do not have the same athletic advantage of recent years. My hope is that will make for a more cohesive team with multiple players who can make a difference each game. I was similarly down on expectations prior to the 2009-2010 season for reasons we all remember. Hopefully we all get just as pleasant of a surprise this year...

UrinalCake
10-28-2019, 09:19 AM
A lot of people here extrapolating a lot of inferences based on very little data.

The biggest concern that everyone has is our shooting. And you are correct that a single exhibition game plus an intra-squad scrimmage (in which we combined to shoot 6-41 from three) is a small sample size. But also consider that none of our freshmen except Hurt were good shooters in high school. None of our veterans except Alex have proven to be good shooters in college. And none of the scouting reports project that our players will be good shooters in college. So maybe the opposite is true - expecting us to be a good shooting team would be making an inference without much data to back it up.

I hate to be such a bummer. Between the football game and the basketball team’s lackluster performance I’m pretty down. I’m sure we’ll look much better on Wednesday as our opponent is much worse. Maybe the team will surprise me next week, and that would be awesome. I’m actually not too worried about Carey, it’s common against smaller teams in the preseason for the bigs to have a hard time staying in the floor.

David Bunkley
10-28-2019, 09:33 AM
12.5% from 3 and 59% from the free throw line are both pretty dreadful.

We also allowed them to take and make a lot of uncontested 3's.

However, we did outplay them in nearly every other facet of the game.

While this may not be the early season juggernaut that we've become accustomed to, I am really excited to see how this team develops throughout the season.

This will be a different kind of ride that we've had recently, but it should still be fun to watch.

#GODUKE

MChambers
10-28-2019, 09:35 AM
A lot of people here extrapolating a lot of inferences based on very little data.

On the Internet? On a sports message board? Impossible!

rsvman
10-28-2019, 10:03 AM
The pattern we have seen over recent years is that Coach K has his team firing on all cylinders very early in the season and that we do very well in early season games/tournaments, etc., which raises expectations. Then, the team begins to hit a few road blocks in January and especially in early February, sometimes rounding into better form again late in the season and in the ACC tournament.

I, for one, would be OK with this year's team taking a more traditional approach of being a bit out-of-sync in the preseason and in the early part of the year, and then rounding into form about the time ACC play begins in earnest, continuing to get better through January and February and hitting March in stride. That would work for me.

Indoor66
10-28-2019, 10:03 AM
On the Internet? On a sports message board? Impossible!

Yeah. He must have landed at DBR by accident.

Edouble
10-28-2019, 10:51 AM
Last season was a bloodbath for Kentucky and they *checks notes* ended up in the Elite 8 just like Duke.

That was Kentucky though, not Duke.


Based on history alone, I agree. When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team? I can't remember to be honest. So I do expect the game to be close and competitive.

Precisely.

(redacted content)

dukelifer
10-28-2019, 12:47 PM
Amazing. Giving up on a team after the 1st exhibition game. Is it 2010?

I am not giving up either- but there is more data out there than 1 game. These Freshman are all good players- but none are known to be especially good shooters other than Hurt. Add them to a point guard who is at best a streaky shooter and you have a limited team that will need to depend on their D. Hurt has the potential to be a very good player this year- the talent and bball IQ are there but like most Freshman- he will be up and down. Moore and Stanley will be very good on the break this year but will need to work on their shooting- we will see if they can be a 30-35% from deep shooter. I have not seen encouraging signs. That leaves Carey for whom I need to see more. The fact that he played little in the game is a tad worrisome as I wonder if that reflects how he is practicing. It is true that the matchups on D were an issue. Again I do not know and look forward to seeing him play well in the next game.

Steven43
10-28-2019, 12:53 PM
Moore and Stanley will be very good on the break this year but will need to work on their shooting- we will see if they can be a 30-35% from deep shooter. I have not seen encouraging signs.

I find it kind of remarkable how low our standard as Duke fans has become for assessing what constitutes good three-point shooting after last year’s team shot so poorly from three-point range. We now talk about shooting 30-35% from the college three-point line as if that is good. It is not.

Indoor66
10-28-2019, 01:04 PM
I am not giving up either- but there is more data out there than 1 game. These Freshman are all good players- but none are known to be especially good shooters other than Hurt. Add them to a point guard who is at best a streaky shooter and you have a limited team that will need to depend on their D. Hurt has the potential to be a very good player this year- the talent and bball IQ are there but like most Freshman- he will be up and down. Moore and Stanley will be very good on the break this year but will need to work on their shooting- we will see if they can be a 30-35% from deep shooter. I have not seen encouraging signs. That leaves Carey for whom I need to see more. The fact that he played little in the game is a tad worrisome as I wonder if that reflects how he is practicing. It is true that the matchups on D were an issue. Again I do not know and look forward to seeing him play well in the next game.

Maybe they deserve a few more games before being anointed as inadequate or failures.

sagegrouse
10-28-2019, 01:06 PM
I am not giving up either- but there is more data out there than 1 game. These Freshman are all good players- but none are known to be especially good shooters other than Hurt. Add them to a point guard who is at best a streaky shooter and you have a limited team that will need to depend on their D. Hurt has the potential to be a very good player this year- the talent and bball IQ are there but like most Freshman- he will be up and down. Moore and Stanley will be very good on the break this year but will need to work on their shooting- we will see if they can be a 30-35% from deep shooter. I have not seen encouraging signs. That leaves Carey for whom I need to see more. The fact that he played little in the game is a tad worrisome as I wonder if that reflects how he is practicing. It is true that the matchups on D were an issue. Again I do not know and look forward to seeing him play well in the next game.

There is a lot of data. Jack White, only 28 percent from three but with an 85 percent FT average. Alex O'Connell was decent at 37.5 percent (75 percent in FT's); Tre shot 75 percent from the line but only 26 percent from three. I expect Jack and Tre to improve over last year. Overall we have 10 or 11 top players (Hey! Justin led the way at 44.4 percent), and some will step up as good shooters. Heck, they got to be top-rated players by playing hoops hours and hours per day.

Yeah -- I wish we had shot 40+ percent in the Blue-White game and the exhibition with NMSU. But I am not conceding anything about the season.

TeacherTom
10-28-2019, 01:11 PM
It's amazing how Jack fights for the rebound! Also, when he took the first three, I was so hoping but it hit the rim. Stanley is going help a great deal as you can see he is a superior player. Mr. Carey kind of looked like he was in a daze and just didn't move quickly enough. Just observations from a neophyte.

Native
10-28-2019, 01:14 PM
Based on history alone, I agree. When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team?

I distinctly remember getting shellacked by Ohio State in the 2011 ACC/B1G challenge game...

Acymetric
10-28-2019, 01:18 PM
There is a lot of data. Jack White, only 28 percent from three but with an 85 percent FT average. Alex O'Connell was decent at 37.5 percent (75 percent in FT's); Tre shot 75 percent from the line but only 26 percent from three. I expect Jack and Tre to improve over last year. Overall we have 10 or 11 top players (Hey! Justin led the way at 44.4 percent), and some will step up as good shooters. Heck, they got to be top-rated players by playing hoops hours and hours per day.

Yeah -- I wish we had shot 40+ percent in the Blue-White game and the exhibition with NMSU. But I am not conceding anything about the season.

FWIW, I've seen it established that FT shooting in college is a good indicator of 3PT shooting at the pro level, but I'm not sure I've ever seen it established that FT shooting at the college level is a good indicator of future college 3PT shooting. I'm not saying it isn't, but are we sure that is the case?

SouthernDukie
10-28-2019, 01:21 PM
I distinctly remember getting shellacked by Ohio State in the 2011 ACC/B1G challenge game...

Ok, thanks for the refresher. But that was 8 years ago. We generally do very well in these games.

NW Bearcats
10-28-2019, 01:51 PM
Not really too concerned with the final score itself. They must’ve made double digit legit bad threes in that game (off the dribble, heavily contested, or more than 5 feet beyond the arc). I also think that was a team that could potentially crack the top 200 in KenPom if they were D1. The big issue I see is finding a lineup that is going to be satisfactory on both offense and defense. I think they showed some spurts of having lineups that are decent on offense, though I will say I can’t see Hurt being able to repeat what he did tonight in the paint against power conference competition. The size mismatches won’t be there. I also saw some lineups that can be elite defensively, but I didn’t see any that were both at the same time. Obviously, the shooting (both foul and three) won’t be that horrid every night, but it’s a legit possibility that it’s no better than last year, and with the best offensive players being guys that are going to be off the ball, I don’t think Duke can be Final Four good without at least respectable shooting. I think you’re going to need to see at least two of Jones, Goldwire, Stanley and Moore shoot over 33% from 3 with decent volume to really have a shot at being Final Four good.

Obviously we’re just scratching the surface on the year, but I think from last week and today, the early returns are showing that there needs to be individual improvement from players. I don’t it’s a needing to work out the cohesion type of issue, and individual improvement is tougher to get during the year.

As a Northwest alum (and yes that's what we call our alma mater), we appreciate all of the nice words regarding our Bearcats and the treatment our team and fans received from Duke Nation. Your people are great and you've won lots of fans from Northwest Missouri.

As others have written since Saturday, Northwest has won 100 of our last 105 games, including the last 38 in a row. Ken Massey's ratings, and you can take it with a grain of salt, ranked Northwest 34th in their final 2019 rankings and the Bearcats start this season at 97 on Massey's list (Bellarmine is the next D2 at 158). We're surprised Ben McCallum is still at Northwest after the 38-0 season, but he is a Northwest alum and there is something about staying home. If McCallum goes back-to back undefeated seasons, there's no way he stays in Maryville, MO for another season. Easiest way to find Maryville, (or as we call it "The Ville") draw a triangle with Kansas City, Omaha, and Des Moines as the points. Maryville is in the middle of that triangle.

Good luck to the Blue Devils this season and again thanks for all of the D2 love you've shown us Bearcats. If you ever come to the Midwest, we'd be happy to return the hospitality.

UrinalCake
10-28-2019, 02:24 PM
When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team?

When was the last time we didn’t have a projected lottery pick on our roster (usually three or four)? At the start of the season nobody has had much practice time, so it comes down to who has the most raw talent. Again, I would love to be wrong.

rsvman
10-28-2019, 02:30 PM
As a Northwest alum (and yes that's what we call our alma mater), we appreciate all of the nice words regarding our Bearcats and the treatment our team and fans received from Duke Nation. Your people are great and you've won lots of fans from Northwest Missouri.

As others have written since Saturday, Northwest has won 100 of our last 105 games, including the last 38 in a row. Ken Massey's ratings, and you can take it with a grain of salt, ranked Northwest 34th in their final 2019 rankings and the Bearcats start this season at 97 on Massey's list (Bellarmine is the next D2 at 158). We're surprised Ben McCallum is still at Northwest after the 38-0 season, but he is a Northwest alum and there is something about staying home. If McCallum goes back-to back undefeated seasons, there's no way he stays in Maryville, MO for another season. Easiest way to find Maryville, (or as we call it "The Ville") draw a triangle with Kansas City, Omaha, and Des Moines as the points. Maryville is in the middle of that triangle.

Good luck to the Blue Devils this season and again thanks for all of the D2 love you've shown us Bearcats. If you ever come to the Midwest, we'd be happy to return the hospitality.

Thank for coming by and posting! Good luck to your team this season. I hope they win another championship.

TruBlu
10-28-2019, 02:30 PM
As a Northwest alum (and yes that's what we call our alma mater), we appreciate all of the nice words regarding our Bearcats and the treatment our team and fans received from Duke Nation. Your people are great and you've won lots of fans from Northwest Missouri.

As others have written since Saturday, Northwest has won 100 of our last 105 games, including the last 38 in a row. Ken Massey's ratings, and you can take it with a grain of salt, ranked Northwest 34th in their final 2019 rankings and the Bearcats start this season at 97 on Massey's list (Bellarmine is the next D2 at 158). We're surprised Ben McCallum is still at Northwest after the 38-0 season, but he is a Northwest alum and there is something about staying home. If McCallum goes back-to back undefeated seasons, there's no way he stays in Maryville, MO for another season. Easiest way to find Maryville, (or as we call it "The Ville") draw a triangle with Kansas City, Omaha, and Des Moines as the points. Maryville is in the middle of that triangle.

Good luck to the Blue Devils this season and again thanks for all of the D2 love you've shown us Bearcats. If you ever come to the Midwest, we'd be happy to return the hospitality.

Thanks for the kind words. Your school was well represented, and cheered wildly and appropriately for your team. I was impressed.

I actually drove past Maryville on I-29 a few weeks ago, on my way to Scottsbluff, NE. It appeared that there was some serious flooding that had occurred along I-29. Hopefully you and your community were not adversely affected.

Go out and win another championship this year, and we will probably see you again in Cameron next year.

Bluedog
10-28-2019, 02:43 PM
Based on history alone, I agree. When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team? I can't remember to be honest. So I do expect the game to be close and competitive.

Duke lost to KY by 11 in 2015...It was basically a double digit lead the entire second half. But I agree that it's very rare.

COYS
10-28-2019, 03:13 PM
Duke lost to KY by 11 in 2015...It was basically a double digit lead the entire second half. But I agree that it's very rare.

The 2011/2012 team lost by 22 at Ohio State in a noncompetitive game.

Billy Dat
10-28-2019, 03:40 PM
I looked at last year's final KenPom Top 10, plus Auburn to account for all the final four squads, and Michigan (at 192nd in the nation and 34.2%) was the closest team to our 328th and 30.8%. We were the only two teams under 35%. Last year was a really bad outlier for us, basically a full 7% points below our recent historical average.

In watching the team thus far, I haven't seen us set up many open, balanced and in-rhythm 3 point shots. Part of that is familiarity with each other, but, perhaps, a big part of it is that since we don't have a lot of guys who think of themselves as 3 point shooters, they aren't used to doing the off ball work needed to get such shots. Specifically, I am thinking about relocating to open space as the defense flexes and rotates to guys driving and to post entry passes.

If we have a sub 35% year from 3, and don't have the lottery talent to bridge that gap, can we handle a year when defense trumps offense by a significant margin? I think someone already pointed out that in the KenPom era, the years that has happened (especially 2007) haven't exactly brought a lot of joy to this board.

My primary disappointment has been that I expected our veterans to be at a level above where they ended last year - specifically Tre, Javin, AOC and Jack. So far, only Jordan Goldwire has really impressed me as someone whose game level-ed up in the off-season.

In his presser, K mentioned that it was a tough match-up for Vernon due to their size and style so I am not yet worried about him. K also played a lot of different line-ups, and subbed a bunch when we had pushed the lead to 20, so I am also not as worried about the final spread.

Bring on Fort Valley State, a HBCU and Division II team that is several notches below NWMS, and let's see what happens.

dukejim1
10-28-2019, 04:24 PM
The longer distance 3 pt line has not gotten much discussion because it is just a little over a ft. longer. But that makes it more than a 2 ft difference for Freshmen. Guys like Hurt may take a while to adjust or they may need just a little extra strength (more years). The distance doesn’t explain sub-20% shooting but it may take a while to determine who should have the green light. NIT has shown a 2% drop over the last two years of using the current line but we may see a 4-5% drop for Freshman. Analytics may require some adjustments for what constitutes a good shot for each individual.

Kedsy
10-28-2019, 04:25 PM
I find it kind of remarkable how low our standard as Duke fans has become for assessing what constitutes good three-point shooting after last year’s team shot so poorly from three-point range. We now talk about shooting 30-35% from the college three-point line as if that is good. It is not.

Might not be terrible at the new line (which they are using this year, right?). Almost everybody's three-point percentages should go down if they have to shoot from further out.

EDIT: DukeJim beat me to it.

dm9e24
10-28-2019, 04:54 PM
Carey's minutes may have had a lot more to do with his 2 fouls, both offensive, before the 2 minute mark. He went back in and then was pulled shortly after missing the rim on a 3 point attempt and didn't play again until the second half where he promptly picked up his 3rd foul. Kind of like we use to see from big men who are in the program for 4 years.
He also looked nervous and uncomfortable in the 10 minutes he played.

elvis14
10-29-2019, 11:26 AM
As a Northwest alum (and yes that's what we call our alma mater), we appreciate all of the nice words regarding our Bearcats and the treatment our team and fans received from Duke Nation. Your people are great and you've won lots of fans from Northwest Missouri.

As others have written since Saturday, Northwest has won 100 of our last 105 games, including the last 38 in a row. Ken Massey's ratings, and you can take it with a grain of salt, ranked Northwest 34th in their final 2019 rankings and the Bearcats start this season at 97 on Massey's list (Bellarmine is the next D2 at 158). We're surprised Ben McCallum is still at Northwest after the 38-0 season, but he is a Northwest alum and there is something about staying home. If McCallum goes back-to back undefeated seasons, there's no way he stays in Maryville, MO for another season. Easiest way to find Maryville, (or as we call it "The Ville") draw a triangle with Kansas City, Omaha, and Des Moines as the points. Maryville is in the middle of that triangle.

Good luck to the Blue Devils this season and again thanks for all of the D2 love you've shown us Bearcats. If you ever come to the Midwest, we'd be happy to return the hospitality.

Thanks for posting. Your team played great. Hope you have a great season. Tough spot for you guys: do great and likely lose great coach, do poorly and keep coach :-)

I don't see the do poorly part happening with that PG and those shooters. Good luck.

NW Bearcats
10-29-2019, 02:05 PM
Thanks for posting. Your team played great. Hope you have a great season. Tough spot for you guys: do great and likely lose great coach, do poorly and keep coach :-)

I don't see the do poorly part happening with that PG and those shooters. Good luck.

Losing coaches to "bigger and better" is a part of life in D2. At Northwest, we experienced this in our football program 3 years ago. Adam Dorrel, another Northwest alum, became head coach in 2011 after Mel Tjeerdsma (church-ma) retired to be Northwest's AD with 3 D2 titles and Mel's hand picked successor, Scott Bostwick, died of a heart attack before leading the Bearcats to even 1 practice.

All Dorrel did at Northwest was go 72-8 in 5 seasons, with 3 D2 titles of his own, and his 2015 and '16 teams finished 15-0. After that 2016 championship game, Dorrel took the head coaching job at FCS Abilene Christian (TX) where he's turning that program around.

If McCollum goes undefeated this year, he'll match Dorrel exactly with 3 titles in 4 years and the last 2 undefeated.

So we'll enjoy the ride while it lasts and wish Ben well at D1 next season.

kAzE
10-29-2019, 03:02 PM
When I saw the box score for this game, I got a little panicked, but after watching the replay, I don't have too much of a negative reaction. Duke looked like a young team that got lost several times on defense, and the veterans for NWMS really capitalized on those mistakes with 3 balls. But aside from the final score, it never really seemed like Duke was in trouble of losing this game despite very poor shooting (from the field and the foul line), and just tons of mistakes on both ends in the half court.

With all the normal caveats for a exhibition game against D2 opponents aside, I think there can be some takeaways from this game, since this is just about as good a team as there is at the D2 level.

The freshmen look like normal freshmen this year, and they are making normal freshmen mistakes. I think it's a safe bet that we aren't going to have any top 5 NBA draft picks from this year's team, unlike the past several seasons. We just weren't able to land the top one and done guys in this class. But having said that, Matthew Hurt does look like a very talented scorer and perhaps facilitator out of the high post in the early going.

Wendell Moore started this game as the shooting guard, but I'm not sure he's going to be be able to keep doing that if he doesn't start shooting it better than he has. He does have a very solid frame and looks to have some potential on defense, but if that jump shot doesn't improve, I'm not seeing the one and done upside here.

Alex O'Connell didn't have a great shooting night, but I actually liked what I saw from him. He showed more ability to create his own offense than I've seen from him in the past. Granted, this was against D2 competition, so the jury is still out, but perhaps the added strength is allowing him to be more of a slasher, which I think could be quite good for him given his above average leaping ability.

Jordan Goldwire and Jack White are going to play a lot, especially early in the season. They aren't going to give the team a whole lot on offense, but their defensive tenacity and hustle are pretty consistent. I could see those guys playing heavy minutes, especially if the freshmen are struggling.

Cassius Stanley actually looks pretty good. I've been pushing Joey Baker a lot this off season, but there just aren't going to be enough minutes on the wing for both of them. It appears Stanley has the edge right now.

frb
10-29-2019, 04:30 PM
surprised at the minutes Goldwire got. I see him as someone who can play 10-15 mins a game. He comes in, doesn't make mistakes, maybe makes a play or 2, plays tough defense and then gets out. Gives Tre a breather.

I really thought Alex O would've made big strides. We need him to make 3s as the 6th or 7th man.

We won't be a threat to win the ACC if Jack White is getting starter minutes. He's somewhat like Goldwire. He's scrappy. He comes in, makes a few plays (last year was good at getting offensive rebounds against much bigger guys) and gets out before the talent deficit becomes apparent. The longer you leave in less talented players, the more probability they will be exposed by superior talent. You can only hide for so long.

I know White and Goldwire can defend but we can't play long stretches with 2 offensively challenged players on the court. Especially given the questions with our ability to convert from 3. You can't even do 1. That's why White's minutes disappeared down the stretch last season.

If Wendell and Cassius aren't who we thought they were and Alex O doesn't step up, we're going to have some issues.

SkyBrickey
10-29-2019, 04:45 PM
A couple of thoughts on the last posts.

I agree we aren't likely to have a top-5 pick this year, but the Vernon Carey at CTC flashed the skills and potential of a top 5 pick - and then he barely played in this game. Very interested to see who shows up Wednesday night. My bet is that we go inside to him early and often. And he has a big game.

Jack White the first half of last season was an offensive force with his 3-point shooting to go along with his great defense and rebounding. I'm still hoping we see that Jack again for some long stretches this season.

English
10-30-2019, 10:12 AM
I didn't know exactly where to put this, but Louisville (preseason AP No. 5, one spot behind us) beat DII Bellarmine--who went 28-5 last year--by only 10pts at home last night after trailing at the half. I'm going to choose to avoid confirmation bias, thinking Duke is the only highly ranked program that is struggling in the very early season.

Certainly I echo many of the concerns about shooting and who will be the go-to offensive players this season, but there are some bright spots on both sides of the court so far that give me optimism.

The Champions Classic should be a good test, albeit still largely just an exercise in overreacting.

ETA: In Seth Davis' latest mailbag for The Athletic, one of the questions asked how he could continue to rate Duke so high (he has them top-5) after seeing them so far. He responded (paraphrasing, the article is behind a paywall) that he's seen the squad at CTC, he's seen them at a closed door practice the following day, he's seen them against NWMS, and he's seen what everyone else has seen. BUT, he's also seen the other teams he's ranked and he maintains that, given the Duke talent and what they do well, and given the state of college basketball this season, he just isn't going to drop Duke behind other questionable teams because they haven't been as dominant as years past.

kAzE
10-30-2019, 12:13 PM
I know White and Goldwire can defend but we can't play long stretches with 2 offensively challenged players on the court. Especially given the questions with our ability to convert from 3. You can't even do 1. That's why White's minutes disappeared down the stretch last season.

White and Goldwire are going to play a lot, at least until these freshmen start maturing. Maybe not both of them in every game, because I agree, it hurts to have 2 guys on the floor at the same time who can't really score.

But both of them are amazing glue guys. It would be more ideal if it were only 1 of them on the floor at a time, but at least they will almost always make the right play, and won't kill you with mistakes, especially on defense. Jack White led the team in rebounding with 10 this game, and Goldwire had 4 steals and only a single turnover.

This team's path to success will most likely be a slower pace, grind-it-out defensive approach, with a good chunk of our offense coming from forcing turnovers and converting in transition.

Billy Dat
10-30-2019, 12:38 PM
This team's path to success will most likely be a slower pace, grind-it-out defensive approach, with a good chunk of our offense coming from forcing turnovers and converting in transition.

That is definitely what it looks like right now, although Big Vern and Hurt seem like they can fill it up.

kAzE
10-30-2019, 12:49 PM
That is definitely what it looks like right now, although Big Vern and Hurt seem like they can fill it up.

Yep, I think those 2 guys will be our best scorers. But unfortunately, they are both most effective in the post, and it's going to be hellish down there if nobody on this squad can space the floor . . .

Billy Dat
10-30-2019, 01:25 PM
Yep, I think those 2 guys will be our best scorers. But unfortunately, they are both most effective in the post, and it's going to be hellish down there if nobody on this squad can space the floor . . .

Considering the fact that both have potential as 3 point shooters, especially Hurt, I am hoping the staff can come up with some creative ways to have them both on the court, but not get in each other's way...a more complimentary Bagler/Carter (recognizing that neither player is Bagley or Carter).

kAzE
10-30-2019, 01:32 PM
Considering the fact that both have potential as 3 point shooters, especially Hurt, I am hoping the staff can come up with some creative ways to have them both on the court, but not get in each other's way...a more complimentary Bagler/Carter (recognizing that neither player is Bagley or Carter).

I actually think Vernon and Matthew can play together just fine. They do both have decent jumpers. I'm just worried that neither of them will have much room to operate 1 on 1 in the post because of the general lack of shooting from the perimeter players on this team. Double teams are going to be coming quickly off whoever is guarding Jordan/Jack/Tre/Wendell if those guys keep throwing up bricks.

elvis14
10-30-2019, 01:35 PM
It could be AOC becomes very important to this team (even Joey Baker if he's finally ready). Alex has size, can shoot, makes good decisions with the ball, etc. Hopefully his defense has improved to the point where he can stay on the court.

Billy Dat
10-30-2019, 02:14 PM
It could be AOC becomes very important to this team (even Joey Baker if he's finally ready). Alex has size, can shoot, makes good decisions with the ball, etc. Hopefully his defense has improved to the point where he can stay on the court.


Even if it has improved, the question is where he stands in the backcourt/wing defensive pecking order. Based on the first exhibition game, and his 12 minutes, it seems like he's currently behind Tre, Jordan, Wendell, Cassius and Jack White. I am rooting for him because he's proven he can score on some big stages.

Troublemaker
10-30-2019, 06:14 PM
Expectations for the Kansas spread after this? Kansas -7?



We look like a bunch of freshmen who don’t have elite talent, which is exactly what we are. When Zion blows a defensive assignment because he’s out of position, he can recover and block the shot anyways because of his insane physical gifts. But the freshmen we have now can’t do that. Last year when our offense broke down because no one had any idea where to be, we could just give the ball to our guys and let them create out of nothing. Again, we can’t do that this year. I expect Kansas to be a bloodbath, but getting our butts kicked early in the season might not be a bad thing. We’ve had several years of coming out of the gate looking great and then failing to sustain any development. This season will really tell us whether K can still develop a team or whether he has just been relying on his phenomenal recruiting success.


Been reading your posts for years and you are a very intelligent cake, but this "bloodbath" stuff is the most moronic sentence that you have written. Seriously...

I can't imagine why anyone would expect anything other that a competitive game where we have a shot to win near the end.

Still develop a team??? You sound like the typical negative Duke prognosticators. I mean, did you see the development of our last two title teams?


Based on history alone, I agree. When was the last time, under Coach K, that Duke wasn't competitive in one of these early season high profile games against another Top 10 team? I can't remember to be honest. So I do expect the game to be close and competitive.


When was the last time we didn’t have a projected lottery pick on our roster (usually three or four)? At the start of the season nobody has had much practice time, so it comes down to who has the most raw talent. Again, I would love to be wrong.

How did you guys make it through these series of posts without proposing a pie bet? C'mon now, let's get into midseason form!

I'll set the line at Kansas -4 (i.e. Duke +4) if you guys want to book that pie bet.

FWIW, I'd take Duke +4 if someone wants the other side. Surely if it's going to be a "bloodbath," that necessarily means KU will win by more than one possession, right? Does UrinalCake (or someone else) have the courage of his convictions?

Troublemaker
10-30-2019, 06:20 PM
With that said, I'm definitely deeply disappointed to hear Coach K describe our team as a "very average" shooting team in the postgame presser (and have that be backed up by the small sample of CTC and 1 exhibition so far). That lack of shooting should limit our upside in March/April, and I'm not expecting a Final Four out of this team unless some shooting emerges*. I just would not bet against Duke in November.

* That could be from Joey/AOC/JRob improving their other stuff to be solidly in the rotation or for the non-shooters to surprise with their shooting. Either way.

-jk
10-30-2019, 06:32 PM
DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

If it's running too fast for you, you can always check out the chat archive (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=ccarc) to catch up.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke! (And sorry for not being around on Saturdays this season...)

-jk