Will Duke be Underrated this Year?

[Billy Dat]

A provocative take, surely, as Duke is never underrated, right?

However, as I have been ingesting preview podcasts by national writers I follow, including NBC's Rob Dauster and CBS' Matt Norlander, I have sensed a collective dismissal of Duke' chances to reach the Final Four. I think these opinions are based on a mixture of the following tropes...I am laying them out and not saying I agree with them:

-Hangover from the departure of most of the freshman class of 2018-19. Last year's class was so great that the general consensus is that Duke will take a significant step back after losing that talent.

-Lack of respect for our upperclassmen. While I tend to see Javin, Jack, AOC and Jordan as a reason to believe in Duke this year, I don't think the rest of the country feels the same. I think Jack's 0 for whatever streak has unfairly branded him as a lesser talent, I think Javin is seen as ok, and I think AOC and Jordan are seen as either being all offense and no defense or vice versa.

-Everyone loves Tre but no one believes he'll be able to shoot. This is part of a larger trope that Duke has offensive talent and defensive talent but few players who can get it done on both ends. Offense but no defense - Hurt, Carey, AOC, Baker. Defense but no offense - Tre, Javin, Jack, Jordan, Stanley, Moore

-There is no dominant freshman. I happen to think we are going to be better than people think, and the way that both K and the other players have been talking about Matthew Hurt makes it seem like he's really going to be a key piece for us this year.

It amazes me, as I read and listen to some of these previews, how UNC seems to get a pass despite losing nearly all of their rotation players yet many think they are a dark horse to win the league. Ditto Virginia. I guess Tony B and Roy's recent ability to do more with seaming less gives them the benefit of the doubt while K's record with one-and-done's is seen as subpar - proof of what reaching the Final Four can do to a season's historical glow.

Am I just cherry picking the lukewarm reviews or are other getting the same feeling from the press?

[jimsumner]

Every pre-season prediction I have seen has Duke in the top-5, usually top-3.

[MChambers]

Every pre-season prediction I have seen has Duke in the top-5, usually top-3.

Well, I hope Duke is underrated and better than top 5.

[azzefkram]

Every pre-season prediction I have seen has Duke in the top-5, usually top-3.

So they will be underrated.:D

[Billy Dat]

Every pre-season prediction I have seen has Duke in the top-5, usually top-3.

I hear you, I guess the vibe I am getting is that a sub-segment don't think we'll live up to those lofty expectations, but perhaps that is always true. I am basing this on a small sample of podcasts and will certainly listen to more. What sticks out to me the most is the lack of value anyone seems to ascribe to our upperclassmen.

[kAzE]

There's way too many unknowns to make a proper evaluation, but as far as the upperclassmen are concerned, I think they are properly rated. No doubt, I expect each of Javin, Jack, Alex, and Jordan to level up from where they were last year, but these guys are all role players who I expect to have a high floor but also not a very high ceiling. Javin DeLaurier and Jack White are not going to suddenly become 15 PPG scorers, but I would expect them to perform more consistently on par with their better games from last year.

IMO, the ceiling of this team will depend on how good the newcomers are, and how much improvement we get from the sophomores. Will the freshmen big men be good on defense? Will one of the freshmen wings or Joey Baker emerge as a reliable scorer (preferably someone who can create offense)? Can Tre hit over 35% of his threes? If the answers to at least 2 of those questions is a yes, I think we'll be pretty good. But I think if 2 of those 3 is a no, it's going to be a tough ask for this team to secure a #1 seed.

[SkyBrickey]

Those are three key questions, I agree.

I think a lot of us like the balance and depth and the way the pieces fit together on this squad. All the potential is there for a great Duke team and a deep tourney run.

But it’s easy for a national analyst to point to 4 lost starters and supposedly no true freshman superstars and underrate this team’s upside. How many of those analysts can appreciate a stealth weapon like Joey Baker Beard?

[Troublemaker]

I hear you, I guess the vibe I am getting is that a sub-segment don't think we'll live up to those lofty expectations, but perhaps that is always true. I am basing this on a small sample of podcasts and will certainly listen to more. What sticks out to me the most is the lack of value anyone seems to ascribe to our upperclassmen.

Let's see what where the ACC media rank us. If Duke is picked first and is also top-5 nationally, it'll be tough to say we're underrated -- perhaps only among that subset of podcasters, as you noted.

As for how good Duke actually is, it hasn't been encouraging to hear about the lack of separation on the roster. (Unless, I suppose, one believes we have 10 All-ACC type players). If that continues, Duke likely will have been overrated. Hopefully 3 or 4 of the guys start to stand out. From the 30,000-ft level, we return one of the best PGs in the country and surround him with lots of highly-ranked talent and very solid veteran help, at least defensively. That should add up to a top-10 team at the very least.

[hallcity]

We’re favored to win the conference so, no, I don’t think we’re underrated this year.

http://theacc.com/news/2019/10/10/mens-basketball-duke-tabbed-as-preseason-acc-favorite.aspx

[Billy Dat]

We’re favored to win the conference so, no, I don’t think we’re underrated this year.

http://theacc.com/news/2019/10/10/mens-basketball-duke-tabbed-as-preseason-acc-favorite.aspx

Fair enough...perhaps my original hypothesis should have been, "Will Duke be viewed as Overrated?" But, again, that same argument seems to be made each year.

[UrinalCake]

I think the outsider’s view is that we have less talent than we had last year, therefore we will do worse than we did last year. S16 is our ceiling.

As an optimistic Duke fan, I will consider that we have better balance, more upperclassmen who will contribute, and an experienced point guard. But it also wouldn’t shock me if we finish worse than we did last year.

[DukieInBrasil]

There's way too many unknowns to make a proper evaluation, but as far as the upperclassmen are concerned, I think they are properly rated. No doubt, I expect each of Javin, Jack, Alex, and Jordan to level up from where they were last year, but these guys are all role players who I expect to have a high floor but also not a very high ceiling. Javin DeLaurier and Jack White are not going to suddenly become 15 PPG scorers, but I would expect them to perform more consistently on par with their better games from last year.

IMO, the ceiling of this team will depend on how good the newcomers are, and how much improvement we get from the sophomores. Will the freshmen big men be good on defense? Will one of the freshmen wings or Joey Baker emerge as a reliable scorer (preferably someone who can create offense)? Can Tre hit over 35% of his threes? If the answers to at least 2 of those questions is a yes, I think we'll be pretty good. But I think if 2 of those 3 is a no, it's going to be a tough ask for this team to secure a #1 seed.
If Javin consistently plays at his best from last year, and his worst games this year are in line with middling games from last year, then we're talking about a player who could be a threat for a double-double in any particular game. It wouldn't surprise me at all for Javin average just under a double-double for the year. If Jack can just avoid an 0-30 slump from 3 then i think he too will average just around 10ppg although probably not as prodigious on the boards, although he is an excellent rebounder for his size. Between the 2 of them, i think we'll get at least 16 pts and 16 boards per game. That's nothing to sneeze at.
I'm not so convinced that Tre has to shoot above the break-even 33% from 3, although better than 30% seems like a reasonable expectation. As long as Duke has at least 1, preferably 2 shooters who can make +/- 40% from 3, i don't think Tre needs to be a prolific shooter. He just needs for other defenders to stay close enough to their man so that he can get some driving lanes, which is where his strength lies, finding open players and managing the offense. Now, 33 or 35 or 40% from 3 would be of immense utility for Tre b/c it would also make it easier for him to drive. I'm looking for Baker, Hurt, J-White, and AOC to all be good enough from 3 and on the court enough so that Tre can usually rely on 2 shooters on the court. It would also be great if J-Gold could shake whatever monkey he's been carrying around from 3 and at least shoot as poorly as Tre shot last year...


Those are three key questions, I agree.
I think a lot of us like the balance and depth and the way the pieces fit together on this squad. All the potential is there for a great Duke team and a deep tourney run.
But it’s easy for a national analyst to point to 4 lost starters and supposedly no true freshman superstars and underrate this team’s upside. How many of those analysts can appreciate a stealth weapon like Joey Baker Beard?
Truly, a weapon so stealth none dare utter his name, until now. You have summoned the beast, may we not regret it...

[jimsumner]

Duke picked to finish first in ACC.

http://theacc.com/news/2019/10/10/mens-basketball-duke-tabbed-as-preseason-acc-favorite.aspx

[arnie]

Duke picked to finish first in ACC.

http://theacc.com/news/2019/10/10/mens-basketball-duke-tabbed-as-preseason-acc-favorite.aspx

Didn’t VaT lose essentially all of their players and their coach? Says a lot about Danny Manning that VaT picked ahead of Wake.

[SkyBrickey]

Duke picked to finish first in ACC.

http://theacc.com/news/2019/10/10/mens-basketball-duke-tabbed-as-preseason-acc-favorite.aspx

Clearly not undervalued by ACC media. Great to see Vernon Carey on preseason second team all-ACC.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Clearly not undervalued by ACC media. Great to see Vernon Carey on preseason second team all-ACC.

And yet, the ignorant yet arrogant pair of Gold and Ovies were snickering at Duke being picked number one, again, given they've been picked number one numerous times but not won the reg season title. Man it's getting harder for me to listen to those clowns more than about 45 seconds at a time, before they say something so stupid, or simply so wrong, that I have to hit the dial.

[robed deity]

And yet, the ignorant yet arrogant pair of Gold and Ovies were snickering at Duke being picked number one, again, given they've been picked number one numerous times but not won the reg season title. Man it's getting harder for me to listen to those clowns more than about 45 seconds at a time, before they say something so stupid, or simply so wrong, that I have to hit the dial.

Ovies' arrogance is especially weird, as he seems to know extremely little about sports.

[AZLA]

I think the outsider’s view is that we have less talent than we had last year, therefore we will do worse than we did last year. S16 is our ceiling.

As an optimistic Duke fan, I will consider that we have better balance, more upperclassmen who will contribute, and an experienced point guard. But it also wouldn’t shock me if we finish worse than we did last year.

As incredibly talented as last year's team was they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn from outside (worst 3-point shooting season in history). Shot distribution was obviously a factor. Meaning if RJ wasn't as trigger happy, Zion was at a much higher percentage in the paint, but regardless there wasn't the right shot distribution or consistency from outside among the other shooters. Cam was streaky, White had the yips, Tre's shoulder injury really impacted his shooting I believe. Not to knock on last year's team. Numbers don't lie. If that 30% was even at 35% Duke would have won the Championship, and they were only one lucky tip or block or shot away from the Final Four (where they would have played teams they've already beaten handily). My roundabout point is that I'm more optimistic about this team have greater consistency from a team standpoint overcoming the shooting flaws and distribution of last year. That obviously won't make up for the high production and efficiency of Zion on the offensive end (as well his defensive influence) which can't be replicated. But, I do see a healthy Tre (and better shooting Tre); I see Jack revived and confident; plus a great cast of consistent shooters. The athleticism and inside play is exciting too with the freshman class. My point is I don't see much drop off from last year.

Whereas last year -- Duke pounded Kentucky in their first real test and that was the standard they were trying to replicate the rest of the season. This season, I see Duke coming out strong but probably not with the same impact at first, but growing and improving more consistently across many players, and being much more effective from outside. There's no reason this team can't go just as far in the NCAA Tourney as last year's team, or even...

[Kedsy]

This year’s team will not be as talented or dominant (when healthy) as last year’s team. Period.

That said, the statement above has absolutely no bearing on how far this year’s team might advance in the NCAA tournament.

[arnie]

And yet, the ignorant yet arrogant pair of Gold and Ovies were snickering at Duke being picked number one, again, given they've been picked number one numerous times but not won the reg season title. Man it's getting harder for me to listen to those clowns more than about 45 seconds at a time, before they say something so stupid, or simply so wrong, that I have to hit the dial.

I’m surprised they were even discussing college b-ball. When I turn on (less an less) they’re explaining how stupid NFL/NBA/Network owners are and how smart each other is. Or they’re dealing with useless Non sports trivia. Sad that we don’t have a fair to good sports radio station.

[AZLA]

This year’s team will not be as talented or dominant (when healthy) as last year’s team. Period.

That said, the statement above has absolutely no bearing on how far this year’s team might advance in the NCAA tournament.

LOL. We run our fandom opinions like hedge fund managers. There's always an upside.

What 2010 taught us. There's always a good chance.

Vegas says MSU +650. Kentucky +750. Duke +850. Memphis +1000. Kansas +1000. Virginia +1100

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This year’s team will not be as talented or dominant (when healthy) as last year’s team. Period.

That said, the statement above has absolutely no bearing on how far this year’s team might advance in the NCAA tournament.

Kind of the truth every season....with a single elim tournament, how talented or dominant a team is takes a backseat to so many transient properties...match ups, injuries, who's hot or not on a given day, officiating, venue......so much that can over ride talent and dominance.


I’m surprised they were even discussing college b-ball. When I turn on (less an less) they’re explaining how stupid NFL/NBA/Network owners are and how smart each other is. Or they’re dealing with useless Non sports trivia. Sad that we don’t have a fair to good sports radio station.

I had to turn off soon, so for all I know they didn't discuss college hoops for long. But man, it is sad...even Glenn's show is no good anymore. It's much different than it used to be.