NBA G-League Free Throw Experiment

[Acymetric]

I was surprised this hasn't been brought up here yet (maybe it has in some thread I'm not follwoing), but the G-League is going to be experimenting with some new free throw rules (https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27707068/g-league-experiment-single-foul-shot).

From the ESPN article:


The NBA G League is experimenting this season with a new rule under which trips to the free throw line will include only a single foul shot that will be worth one, two or three points depending on the nature of the foul leading to the attempt, officials told ESPN.

And later:


The G League will revert to traditional free throw rules for the final two minutes of regulation and overtime, officials said. Shooting fouls on made baskets -- and-1s -- will proceed the same way, with the shooter attempting one free throw worth one point.

This seems like an awful idea to me (although I guess if you're going to try out bad ideas the G-League is the logical place to start). Changing it back to the old rules in the final minutes and in overtime feels especially weird. Supposedly this is to improve game flow and shorten the length of games.

[UrinalCake]

I always feel like the first shot is harder to make than the second, since you haven’t gotten into a rhythm.

[AGDukesky]

Awful idea. Why not just award teams the historical make % times the number of FTs awarded and flip a coin to see if the 1-and-1 is made. No FTs taken at all...

[Acymetric]

I always feel like the first shot is harder to make than the second, since you haven’t gotten into a rhythm.

Statistics back this up, the make % increases for each subsequent free throw (from the same article linked above):



ATTEMPT
FT%


1st
73.3%


2nd
78.0%


3rd
85.7%



My initial feeling is that this probably oversells the difference because I'm guessing they just globbed all free throw attempts together. I would have expected 2nd free throw attempts to have a higher % rate anyway, because for one-and-ones the people who miss a lot of free throws don't get to the second one, so fewer chances to miss a 2nd FT attempt, or in other words only good foul shooters end up taking that 2nd shot on 1/1's (on average, of course). Same for the 3rd shot, 3 point shooters are generally going to have a higher FT% than NBA players generally, especially ones who get fouled (which suggests they are being closely guarded which then suggests they are good 3 point shooters and good 3 point shooters are usually good FT shooters). I would want to see the data broken up by foul shot type (1/1, 2 shot, and 3 shot, although honestly you could probably just throw out 1/1's and just look at 2 shot and 3 shot). I would still expect to see an improvement on each subsequent shot, but not as dramatic.

[mkirsh]

Statistics back this up, the make % increases for each subsequent free throw (from the same article linked above):



ATTEMPT
FT%


1st
73.3%


2nd
78.0%


3rd
85.7%



My initial feeling is that this probably oversells the difference because I'm guessing they just globbed all free throw attempts together. I would have expected 2nd free throw attempts to have a higher % rate anyway, because for one-and-ones the people who miss a lot of free throws don't get to the second one, so fewer chances to miss a 2nd FT attempt, or in other words only good foul shooters end up taking that 2nd shot on 1/1's (on average, of course). Same for the 3rd shot, 3 point shooters are generally going to have a higher FT% than NBA players generally, especially ones who get fouled (which suggests they are being closely guarded which then suggests they are good 3 point shooters and good 3 point shooters are usually good FT shooters). I would want to see the data broken up by foul shot type (1/1, 2 shot, and 3 shot, although honestly you could probably just throw out 1/1's and just look at 2 shot and 3 shot). I would still expect to see an improvement on each subsequent shot, but not as dramatic.

The NBA doesn't have one-and-one free throws, so the only 1 shot attempts are for and-ones, which I'm not sure are shot by above or below average shooters, and technical foul shots, which are only attempted by above average shooters. I would therefore ascribe most of the improvement from first to second attempt to rhythm/confidence/etc

[Acymetric]

The NBA doesn't have one-and-one free throws, so the only 1 shot attempts are for and-ones, which I'm not sure are shot by above or below average shooters, and technical foul shots, which are only attempted by above average shooters. I would therefore ascribe most of the improvement from first to second attempt to rhythm/confidence/etc

...Excellent point. I still think it explains part of the gap between 2nd and 3rd. And-ones I'm not sure either. Probably close to a push, I guess.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

The NBA doesn't have one-and-one free throws, so the only 1 shot attempts are for and-ones, which I'm not sure are shot by above or below average shooters, and technical foul shots, which are only attempted by above average shooters. I would therefore ascribe most of the improvement from first to second attempt to rhythm/confidence/etc

Correct, but this rule change will put the pressure of the one and one first shot onto the single free throw worth 2 or 3......will make more sense to foul a shooter now IMO.

[MarkD83]

If they really want to speed up the game eliminate the free throws. If a player is fouled shooting give the team the appropriate number of points. If they make the shot and they are fouled give them another point. If the team is in the bonus give them 1 or 2 pts depending upon total fouls

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If they really want to speed up the game eliminate the free throws. If a player is fouled shooting give the team the appropriate number of points. If they make the shot and they are fouled give them another point. If the team is in the bonus give them 1 or 2 pts depending upon total fouls

Score without the ball going through thr basket??? Blaspheme.

I don't hate the experiment. Swapping back and forth based on the clock is nuts.