The "we waited as long as we could!" Rotation/Minutes thread, 2019-20 Edition

[scottdude8]

This can of worms already was opened a bit in the thread on Tre Jones' feature in the Athletic (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?44123-Tre-Jones-article-in-The-Athletic), which included quotes that one could interpret as possibly indicating that maybe this is the prophesied year where Coach K plays a consistent 8-9 man rotation (and also hell freezes over, pigs fly, and... no, no, this is a legitimate topic Scott, focus!).

We all know the long history of this type of speculation on the board, and how despite our hopes to the contrary, every year Duke finds a 7 or 7.5 man rotation by the time March rolls around. Who's willing to put their name on the line and say this year will be different?

As I said in the other thread, I still think that there will be a main 7-8 man rotation come the end of the season. BUT, I do think that we have enough experienced/unique players on our bench such that there will come a time where each of them has to play significant minutes in an ACC contest (talking mainly about guys like AOC, JG, and Baker here, as we all assume Tre, the freshmen, and the seniors will be in the 7 man rotation for at least a significant part of the season... obviously whether they all are at the end is another topic entirely). AOC and Baker provide shooting that might be necessary against a certain type of matchup, and we know what JG did against Louisville last year. So while I imagine that the "core 7" will be the only ones consistently playing 10+ MPG come season's end, I would expect that we will have nine players who, at some point or another during ACC season, have a game where they are called into action and play at least 15 minutes.

That's how I'll start the speculation. Let the madness begin.

[JasonEvans]

I will get started by reminding everyone that Joey Baker was quite highly regarded when he was a member of the class of 2019 (#15 in the ESPN rankings). When he moved up to 2018, his ranking understandably suffered and he did not get much playing time last year. While I am sure many folks will peg him for the least number of minutes of the 10 guys who seem likely to get time, I will just say that I think he may surprise a lot of you.

-Jason "Baker was well ahead of Stanley when they were all in the same class together... I believe he was more highly regarded than Wendell Moore too" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I will get started by reminding everyone that Joey Baker was quite highly regarded when he was a member of the class of 2019 (#15 in the ESPN rankings). When he moved up to 2018, his ranking understandably suffered and he did not get much playing time last year. While I am sure many folks will peg him for the least number of minutes of the 10 guys who seem likely to get time, I will just say that I think he may surprise a lot of you.

-Jason "Baker was well ahead of Stanley when they were all in the same class together... I believe he was more highly regarded than Wendell Moore too" Evans

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

[arnie]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

If Cassius Stanley only gets 12 mpg, he’ll be pissed. Hope you’re way low as we need him to be a player at Duke, not some other school.

[scottdude8]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

Well, if you're going to up the ante and put together a minutes list, it would be disingenuous of me as the guy who started the thread to not do so as well, haha.

With the caveat that this is how I see things standing at the end of the season, I think it'll look something like this:

PG- Tre 35, Goldwire 5
Wing 1-Stanley 22, AOC 15, Goldwire 3
Wing 2- Moore 22, White 10, Baker 5, Hurt 3
Forward- Hurt 22, White 10, DeLaurier 8
Center- Carey 25, DeLaurier 15

I doubt there will be much differentiation between the SG and SF this year which is why I put it at two "wings", and obviously those are interchangeable (so I view things as there being 80 minutes at the wings for a combo of Stanley, Moore, AOC, White, Goldwire, Baker, and Hurt).

Like Jason, I also think that we're too low on Baker. If I had to predict now this is where it would stand, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if, say, AOC's and Baker's minutes were swapped (or, more likely, if they both serve a similar role of "spark-plug off-the-bench shooter", and whoever is hotter on a given night gets a majority of their minutes).

It wouldn't surprise me one or both of Stanley and Hurt don't start, but play starters minutes, in order to get more experienced guys (in particular Javin) in the starting lineup, at least in the beginning of the year. Regardless, I think that we'll see Javin and Jack playing 20+ minutes a game throughout the traditional "3-5" slots.

I also think we will see more of Tre and JG on the court together than people are anticipating, especially if Tre's shot develops like I personally expect it to (JG may be a lost cause, but you never know **cough cough** the Kenny Goins example I always point to **cough cough**).

Like Jason, I look at what I just wrote and can't help but think it is going to be spectacularly wrong. But something in my gut just tells me that this is going to be a year where the "starters" are seeing closer to 30 than 40 minutes per game (outside of Tre), hence my low totals. Can't wait to see how wrong I am.

[mattman91]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

Not bad, but I think Hurt will average much more than 23 points - especially after hearing K's remarks about his defense.

[MChambers]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

Bad enough that we've got to make predictions about something that involves so many variables and moving parts that predictions are pretty well useless, but now you're adding another: competitive games?

[NSDukeFan]

PG - Jones 29, Goldwire 7, O’Connell 4
SG - O’Connell 14, Stanley 15, Moore 5, Jones 4, Baker 2
SF - Moore 17 White 11, Baker 7, Hurt 5
PF - Hurt 20, DeLaurier 12, White 6, Baker 1, JRob 1,
C- Carey 27, DeLaurier 8, White 2, Hurt 2, JRob 1

Totals:
Jones 33
Carey 27
Hurt 27
Moore 22
Delaurier 20
White 19
O’Connell 18
Stanley 15
Baker 10
Goldwire 7
JRob 2

Things can change during the season, but this is how the coaches should play the team this year, as things stand right now. Since they see the team more often than I do and have had some success, I will allow them some leeway.

[Wahoo2000]

As a non-Duke fan, I'm going to attempt this based on what I've seen Duke do over the last 10ish years (namely, make this a 7-8 man rotation, leaving out 2 guys totally that many of you are *certain* will be contributors, and saying another will play a bit part).

The easy ones (can't find a single reason these guys won't all play in every game assuming good health):
Jones
Delaurier
Carey

Already down to 4 rotation players, and one bit/role player? Yikes.

*Relatively* certain these guys will get regular run:
White (candidate for bit/role player)
Hurt

With 3 players left to squeeze in, looking almost exclusively at wings/non-pg perimeter players. The 3 I'm going with-
O'Connell
Stanley
Moore

I'll put the minutes avg for "close/competitive" games like this:
Jones - 38
Carey - 30
Hurt - 30
O'Connell - 27
Moore - 27
Stanley - 20
Delaurier - 20
White - 8

Ultimately, this leaves Baker and Goldwire as being pretty much "DNP" guys in the biggest/closest games. Reasoning:
Goldwire - Mostly because I'll say that I think Tre will play something like 38 minutes in most of those games, and you can get by without a "PG" for 2 mpg easily by sharing the ballhandling responsibility among the other guards.
Baker - Kind of the same reason I'm saying that I expect that White will be the ".5" guy in the 7.5 man rotation. I think K will chose the younger guy over the guy who has a year in the program but hasn't worked his way into the rotation yet. I think O'Connell played enough last year to be a much more likely contributor, and honestly just expect K to try and get the younger wings out there over Baker.

Could be 110% wrong and it won't surprise me if Baker and/or Goldwire end up in the rotation. What WILL surprise me is if come Feb/March Duke is playing MORE than a 7.5 man rotation. Someone (or maybe 2-3 guys) who EVERYONE expects to contribute *will not* be in the rotation come that part of the year.

[Kedsy]

You guys know I have a formula (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33892-Recruiting-ranking-experience-and-playing-time-at-Duke), that combines recruiting ranking and experience, which I have in the past used to predict "the rotation" (which admittedly means different things to different people). This season, here's what it looks like:

Interior: Vernon Carey (1.0), Javin DeLaurier (1.5), Matthew Hurt (2.0)

Perimeter: Tre Jones (1.5), Alex O'Connell (3.0), Wendell Moore (3.0), Cassius Stanley (3.0), Jack White (3.5), Joey Baker (3.5), Jordan Goldwire (4.0)

To me, the most striking thing about this is how we only have one perimeter player with a "ranking" lower than 3.0. Since the RSCI was invented this has never happened. In fact, going back to at least the year 2000 (as far back as I can go), Duke has never had fewer than three such players.

So, what does that mean? I think it means that with five (maybe six) essentially equivalent players, it's impossible to intelligently guess which perimeter players will break through and be primary rotation players come March. It probably means in the early season we'll see lots of combinations and lots of different guys playing big minutes. As Scottdude suggests, it's quite possible that nine or ten guys will play 15 or 20 minutes in one or more individual games over the course of the season, as K searches for the players he'll use in his end-of-season tight rotation. As such, it's also possible that nine or ten guys will average 8+ or even 10+ mpg over the course of the season (including blowouts, etc.).

All that is not to say that his actual season-ending rotation will be longer than 7 guys, though 8 wouldn't surprise me with the group we have. I'm just saying nobody (not even the coaching staff) has anything more than a wild guess as to who the two or three guys will be that'll be plastered to the bench in March.

[proelitedota]

Tre: 35 min
Cassius: 20 min
Wendell: 20 min
Matthew: 30 min
Vernon: 25 min

JGold: 5 min
AOC: 15 min
Jack White: 25 min
Joey Baker: 5 min
Javin Delaurier: 25 min

[rocketeli]

Clearly order has been restored and now Duke has a plethora of "wings" (SF,SG etc.) to fit into the rotation, as is traditional.
We all know that Jones backed up by Goldwire will play the point, and Carey and Delaurier will be the inside beef but who will play more to the perimeter? White is experienced, but shot, what 1-90 from 3 in the second half of last season? He did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year. So he has that to overcome. Meanwhile, on a team that desperately needed outside shooting Baker and O'Connell couldn't get on the floor. Will they be better this year? Hurt is a skinny, Stanley is more athletic than skilled, maybe, and maybe Moore will get more minutes. It will be interesting to see if physical maturity and experience rule, or athletic ability and skill take over.

[jimsumner]

Clearly order has been restored and now Duke has a plethora of "wings" (SF,SG etc.) to fit into the rotation, as is traditional.
We all know that Jones backed up by Goldwire will play the point, and Carey and Delaurier will be the inside beef but who will play more to the perimeter? White is experienced, but shot, what 1-90 from 3 in the second half of last season? He did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year. So he has that to overcome. Meanwhile, on a team that desperately needed outside shooting Baker and O'Connell couldn't get on the floor. Will they be better this year? Hurt is a skinny, Stanley is more athletic than skilled, maybe, and maybe Moore will get more minutes. It will be interesting to see if physical maturity and experience rule, or athletic ability and skill take over.

A bit harsh on Jack White, methinks. His late-season shooting woes caused Duke to drop all the way down to the number one overall seed. Imagine how they could have improved their seed if he had shot better.

He did go scoreless in the loss to Michigan State. Of course, he was injured and played all of three minutes. I guess he should have sucked it up and found a way to give Duke those two points it needed.

[bullettoothtony]

Clearly order has been restored and now Duke has a plethora of "wings" (SF,SG etc.) to fit into the rotation, as is traditional.
We all know that Jones backed up by Goldwire will play the point, and Carey and Delaurier will be the inside beef but who will play more to the perimeter? White is experienced, but shot, what 1-90 from 3 in the second half of last season? He did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year. So he has that to overcome. Meanwhile, on a team that desperately needed outside shooting Baker and O'Connell couldn't get on the floor. Will they be better this year? Hurt is a skinny, Stanley is more athletic than skilled, maybe, and maybe Moore will get more minutes. It will be interesting to see if physical maturity and experience rule, or athletic ability and skill take over.


Nike did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year.

[mattman91]

Nike did much more than any other player to stop Duke from going to the national championship last year.

The truth of this post hurts my sole.

[bullettoothtony]

^ lol... good stuff matt!

[SkyBrickey]

The biggest question I think is the usage of AOC vs Stanley vs Baker.

I know we all love Stanley’s athleticism but I expect either AOC or Baker to get heavier rotation minutes because of their superior ability to shoot the 3. If Stanley proves both a better defender and capable of making 3s at a 35% clip then I’ll revise my forecast.

[jimsumner]

The biggest question I think is the usage of AOC vs Stanley vs Baker.

I know we all love Stanley’s athleticism but I expect either AOC or Baker to get heavier rotation minutes because of their superior ability to shoot the 3. If Stanley proves both a better defender and capable of making 3s at a 35% clip then I’ll revise my forecast.

There are a lot of possibilities. If Tre Jones continues to struggle from beyond the arc, then O'Connell and Baker's shooting becomes more important. But suppose Jones becomes a lights-out shooter? Or Moore? Or White recovers his mojo? Then perhaps Stanley becomes a more viable option. Or Moore plays the 2.

I think we'll see lots of lineup experimentation early before Krzyzewski begins his inevitable rotation compression.

And based on what I heard yesterday I do feel confident that one of those experiments will see Carey, DeLaurier and Hurt on the floor at the same time.

Don't know if it will work. That's why it's an experiment. But should be fun to watch.

[Spanarkel]

My off-the-top-of-my-head guess at minutes (by position) for this season in competitive games:

PG - Tre 35, Goldwire 5
SG - AOC 25, Stanley 12, Moore 3
SF - Moore 22, Baker 13, White 5
PF - Hurt 23, White 12, DeLaurier 5
C - Carey 27, Delaurier 13

Totals: Tre 35, Carey 27, AOC 25, Moore 25, Hurt 23, DeLaurier 18, White 17, Baker 13, Stanley 12, Goldwire 5

-Jason "as I look at that, it looks wrong... am I on crack thinking we will play 10 guys? Oh well" Evans

Always enjoy your comments, Jason, but your predicting Javin for only 18 minutes/game seems at least modestly low(, although I have admittedly not come close to challenging for the Minutes Prediction Winner the past several seasons!).

[SkyBrickey]

Jim, I’m excited to see Javin’s upgraded game. And with Carey healthy and slimmed down, plus Hurts ability to defend the wing, I love the idea of seeing that bigger lineup in action. I understand that Carey has a nice outside stroke to create some spacing. I’m sure he would love to play alongside Javin.

I’ve been a close follower of the program for 30+ years and I can’t ever remember there being this many unknowns with such a deep and talented roster heading into the season. That must be fun and energizing for the coaching staff to work to put a championship puzzle together.

One of the challenges will be to keep the odd men out of the rotation positive and motivated. We will need them in a huge way the next season.

[budwom]

I'll let you guys hash this out...bottom line for me is guys who can defend can play, and given the current roster, there will be room for a guy who can shoot well....I have no idea if that will be Baker, AOC, White, or some of the frosh.

[Nrrrrvous]

It's about time!

Some things that I feel confident saying at this time of year...

Jones will get at least 35 mins. By tournament time, they won't even put a chair out for him. He will not be sitting. Period.

Carey will get 30 mins unless, and we will have to see, he has fouling issues that sometimes plague young big men.

DeLaurier will only get 20 mins, simply because I don't see him overcoming the young big men fouling issue previously mentioned.

Hurt will get 25 mins based on ranking, size, and versatility.

White will get 25 to 30 mins if his shooting has returned, 20 to 25 if not.

Goldwire will get his 10 mins of pestering the opponent's backcourt just to see if we can disrupt them for a while.

None of us knows yet who of the other 4; AOC, Stanley, Baker and Moore, is going to step up. To me, this is the exciting part. Trying to glean anything we can from tiny bits of information for the next few weeks.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Where are the prediction minutes for Savarino?

[Troublemaker]

My general comment on the predictions so far: not enough players playing 30+ min/gm. It's not just going to be Tre Jones, guys.

It's like Groundhog Day or Lucy with the football in here :-)

[scottdude8]

It's about time!

Some things that I feel confident saying at this time of year...

Jones will get at least 35 mins. By tournament time, they won't even put a chair out for him. He will not be sitting. Period.

Carey will get 30 mins unless, and we will have to see, he has fouling issues that sometimes plague young big men.

DeLaurier will only get 20 mins, simply because I don't see him overcoming the young big men fouling issue previously mentioned.

Hurt will get 25 mins based on ranking, size, and versatility.

White will get 25 to 30 mins if his shooting has returned, 20 to 25 if not.

Goldwire will get his 10 mins of pestering the opponent's backcourt just to see if we can disrupt them for a while.

None of us knows yet who of the other 4; AOC, Stanley, Baker and Moore, is going to step up. To me, this is the exciting part. Trying to glean anything we can from tiny bits of information for the next few weeks.

This is the assertion I think is least likely to happen, actually. Not due to Carey's talent, which from all reports is definitely up to that standard. There are three factors going against this: 1) young bigs have more "adjusting" to do to the college game, no matter how talented, and thus are a bit less likely to be dominant (guys like Jahlil Okafor are the exception, not the rule!); 2) while I'm sure this has improved, there were lots of reports on Carey during the end of his high school career that conditioning was a problem... and while that is obviously going to improve working with the Duke staff, it's hard to play 30+ minutes as a 19 year old with his body; 3) Javin provides us depth at that position, along with the possibility that we could periodically play small with Hurt as the biggest guy on the court in certain matchups, so given that luxury there may not be the reason to force those minutes on Carey.

Obviously we all agree on Tre getting 30-35 mpg. But amongst the remaining players who are likely to reach that 30 mpg threshold, I'd put Carey fairly down the list. I think Moore or Hurt, whoever develops quicker, is more likely to reach that threshold, and Javin may even approach it just playing all over the court.


My general comment on the predictions so far: not enough players playing 30+ min/gm. It's not just going to be Tre Jones, guys.

It's like Groundhog Day or Lucy with the football in here :-)

Harsh, but 100% true. Personally my predictions were definitely hedging a lot of bets... after we see how guys look in game action, even pre-season, I'd be much more comfortable going aggressive with my predictions. You're obviously right: there will probably be at minimum 3 guys averaging 30 mpg by the end of the year (at least in competitive games).

[devildeac]

Where are the prediction minutes for Savarino?

You'll have to wait for Mickie and/or Debbie to post on that one...

:rolleyes:

[House P]

So, forget MPG: I assert that Duke will have 9 players that have at least one ACC game where they play 15+ minutes, and this will be the thing that differentiates this team's depth from previous years.


Except this wouldn’t differentiate this year’s team from previous years. Here are the players with at least 15 minutes in an ACC game (including ACCT) in the past several seasons:

2019 - Williamson, Barrett, Jones, Reddish, Bolden, Delaurier, White, O’Connell, Goldwire
2018 - Bagley, Allen, Duval, Carter, Trent, Delaurier, Bolden, O’Connell, White, Goldwire
2017 - Allen, Tatum, Kennard, Jefferson, Jones, Jackson, Giles, Bolden, Jeter
2016 - Allen, Ingram, Kennard, Jones, Thornton, Plumlee, Jeter
2015 - Allen, Okafor, Cook, Jefferson, Jones, Winslow, Jones, Sulaimon, Plumlee

Thanks to ScottDude for starting this separate thread and providing a safe space to have this discussion away from all the "minutes-haters":cool:

As pfrduke points out, it is not all that uncommon to have 9 different guys who were "in the rotation" for at least one competitive ACC game, even if he rarely goes with a 9 man rotation in an individual (competitive) game. If my calculations are correct, in about half (21 of 39) of Coach K's seasons at Duke, 9 different guys on the roster played 15+ minutes in at least one competitive* game after Jan 1**.

If anyone wants to go a bit further out on a limb than ScottDude, the following scenarios would set this year's team apart from the typical Coach K team:

A) 9 different players get 15+ minutes in at least 5 competitive games after Jan 1.
- According to my records, this has happened only once (1990) since Coach K arrived at Duke. There have been 5 seasons (1983, 1990, 2003, 2009, 2012) where 9 different players got 15+ minutes in at least 3 competitive games after Jan 1.

B) 10 different players get 15+ minutes in at least one competitive game after Jan 1.
- According to my records, this has happened only 4 times since Coach K has been at Duke (1991, 1997, 1998, 2008)


In my opinion, Coach K's comment about the smaller-than-normal talent gap between the starters and the bench is probably the strongest evidence that scenario A or B could happen this season. If the talent gap is closer, Coach K may be more likely to experiment with lineups or temporarily give a bigger role to a bench guy who has been playing/practicing well recently or who provides a favorable matchup vs a specific opponent.

The 2009 team is probably a good example of this. In 2009, the top 3 guys (Scheyer, Singler, Henderson) were pretty clear. However, there wasn't a huge talent gap between players #4 and #9: Nolan Smith (Soph), Lance Thomas (Jr), Greg Paulus (Sr), Eliot Williams (Fr), Brian Zoubek (Jr), and David McClure (Sr). As a result, 9 different guys played 10+ minutes in 10 or more competitive games after Jan 1. This happened even though there was only one individual competitive game that year (a 70-54 win vs UVA on Feb 1) where Duke played 9 guys for 10+ minutes.

In other words, depending on your definition, Duke didn't have a "9 man rotation" in 2009. However, 9 different guys were "in the rotation" at some point during the year. This year could be similar.





################

*I defined "competitive game" as any game where the final margin was 20 points or less.

**Unfortunately, the my minutes-played spreadsheet doesn't flag ACC games, so there isn't an easy way for me to directly respond to ScottDude's initial criteria of "at least one ACC game" where they played 15+ minutes. Therefore, the closest I could get was to look at "competitive games after Jan 1" which misses some ACC blowouts, but includes competitive non-conference games after Jan 1.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

You'll have to wait for Mickie and/or Debbie to post on that one...

:rolleyes:

Reminds me of the quote former Jazz Coach Frank Layden (I think that was his name) used to say about hiring his son as assistant coach...."I didn't hire him because he was my son....I hired him because I'm married to his mother...."

[SkyBrickey]

None of us knows yet who of the other 4; AOC, Stanley, Baker and Moore, is going to step up. To me, this is the exciting part. Trying to glean anything we can from tiny bits of information for the next few weeks.

You're right that we won't know for sure until the season starts, but from what I've been reading, I think Moore is expected to be ahead of the other three guys. Someone shared a mock draft board with him as a Top 15 pick. He's coming in with a college ready body and a solid offensive and defensive skillset. I'd be surprised if he's as physically developed and dominating as freshman Justice Winslow, but I'm hoping for a similar type of swiss-army-knife role and impact for the team with Moore getting 25+ min per night playing at the 2/3.

If not Justice Winslow, a Malcolm Brogdon type of impact would also work for us... :)

[ChillinDuke]

By position:

PG: Jones 35, Goldwire 5
SG: AOC 20, Baker 10, Goldwire 10
SF: Moore 30, White 5, Stanley 5
PF: Hurt 30, White 10
C: Carey 25, DeLaurier 15

Totals:

Jones: 35
Moore: 30
Hurt: 30
Carey: 25
AOC: 20*
White: 15
DeLaurier: 15
Goldwire: 15*
Baker: 10*
Stanley: 5*

*I think these combined 50 minutes will ultimately go to 2 players, the two that can shoot best. I've roughly laid out my expectation that AOC will hold that mantle, followed by Goldwire (edge goes to his defense, he's going to be asked to defend the other team's best player so that Tre doesn't need to burn out on both ends, we need him on offense), then Baker, then Stanley.

I think we will go 8 deep this year, by nature of parity of players playing more minutes in close games at various times. I think the final game of the season will see a 7-man rotation.

- Chillin

[SkyBrickey]

I expect to see a broader distribution of minutes early in the season as Coach experiments with lineups, but if I had to make a prediction for ACC and tourney minutes, I'll make the following guess. It's a 7-man rotation with the other 3 players getting spot minutes depending on match-ups and needs. And I'll predict that 8 different players - everyone but Goldwire and Baker - will start at least one ACC game

Jones - 34 min
Goldwire - 8 min
Hurt - 28 min
Carey - 24 min
Delaurier - 24 min
Moore - 25 min
White - 20 min
AOC - 21 min
Stanley - 10 min
Baker - 6 min

If Stanley makes a strong commitment to D and can keep the defense honest with 35%+ on 3s, then flip his minutes with AOC. If Baker can stop dribble penetration on D and is an absolute terror from 3 (42%+), then flip his minutes with AOC.

[House P]

My general comment on the predictions so far: not enough players playing 30+ min/gm. It's not just going to be Tre Jones, guys.

It's like Groundhog Day or Lucy with the football in here :-)

Yeah, 2007-08 was the only time in the last 20 seasons when only one Duke player averaged 30+ mpg over the course of the season.

So it is pretty likely that at least one guy other than Tre is going to emerge as a "Coach K-wants-him-on-the-court-as-much-as-possible" type of player. It is just not very clear - to me at, least - who that will be at the moment.

[ChillinDuke]

Yeah, 2007-08 was the only time in the last 20 seasons when only one Duke player averaged 30+ mpg over the course of the season.

So it is pretty likely that at least one guy other than Tre is going to emerge as a "Coach K-wants-him-on-the-court-as-much-as-possible" type of player. It is just not very clear - to me at, least - who that will be at the moment.

Agreed, in particular on the bolded.

Freshman bigs don't always have the immediate stamina/foul avoidance ability to play 30+ out the gates, especially if we play up tempo which K said in his conference (although I'll believe it when I see the team can handle it). That makes me leery of pushing Hurt / Carey up there, although I gave Hurt 30 mins as my guess.

Perimeter players are the clear choice for 30+, but like you said who do you choose? Moore? AOC? Baker? White would be a good choice if he can knock down shots 35-40% from deep he will be in the discussion for major minutes at the 3.

There's just too much going on with our perimeter players. Hard to peg this year.

- Chillin

[Nrrrrvous]

This is the assertion I think is least likely to happen, actually. Not due to Carey's talent, which from all reports is definitely up to that standard. There are three factors going against this: 1) young bigs have more "adjusting" to do to the college game, no matter how talented, and thus are a bit less likely to be dominant (guys like Jahlil Okafor are the exception, not the rule!); 2) while I'm sure this has improved, there were lots of reports on Carey during the end of his high school career that conditioning was a problem... and while that is obviously going to improve working with the Duke staff, it's hard to play 30+ minutes as a 19 year old with his body; 3) Javin provides us depth at that position, along with the possibility that we could periodically play small with Hurt as the biggest guy on the court in certain matchups, so given that luxury there may not be the reason to force those minutes on Carey.



When K has "top 5" incoming talent (Carey was #1 a year ago, dropped to 5) he plays them. Every top 5 recruit for the last ten years has averaged over 30 mins per game except Giles and Irving. Expand out to top ten and it still rings true with the exception of Carter who would have, if not for foul trouble IIRC. Once you get out of the top ten recruits, then it gets a bit different but you get my point.

[SkyBrickey]

Okafor averaged 30.1 min per game but he wasn’t competing for playing time against a talented senior captain. I’d be very surprised if Carey averages more than 30 min per game. I think Hurt and Moore are more likely candidates to be that second 30 minute man. Both are projected higher than Carey in some early mock drafts.

[devildeac]

WAG-in no particular order:

Carey-26
Javin-14
Hurt-28
White-12
Moore-28
Baker-12
AOC-16
Stanley-46" (oops, meant 24 minutes:o)
Tre-34
Goldwire-6
Savarino-<1 (;))

Kinda/sorta went by "position." Yea, yea, yea, and I've got 9 guys averaging 10+MPG and that ain't gonna happen but I keep running up to that football...

[MChambers]

Tre – 35
Javin – 22
Carey – 24
Moore – 24
Hurt – 26
Stanley – 24
White – 15
Baker – 14
O'Connell – 14
Goldwire – 2

I know that by the end of the year (and probably by February) Coach K will have tightened the rotation so that we have the usual 7.5 players playing almost all of the minutes, but I could see a lot of variation in playing time until February, with the result that nine players average double-digit minutes. So many variables, however! A lot will depend on who shows the ability to stretch the floor with outside shooting. Hurt seems likely to do this, but who knows about White, Baker, O'Connell, Stanley, and Moore? And if Carey can shoot from the outside, maybe it opens up more time for Javin.

[dukelifer]

There are a lot of possibilities. If Tre Jones continues to struggle from beyond the arc, then O'Connell and Baker's shooting becomes more important. But suppose Jones becomes a lights-out shooter? Or Moore? Or White recovers his mojo? Then perhaps Stanley becomes a more viable option. Or Moore plays the 2.

I think we'll see lots of lineup experimentation early before Krzyzewski begins his inevitable rotation compression.

And based on what I heard yesterday I do feel confident that one of those experiments will see Carey, DeLaurier and Hurt on the floor at the same time.

Don't know if it will work. That's why it's an experiment. But should be fun to watch.

I have no idea at this point. I agree- much depends on who can shoot it. If Tre has not improved- then someone needs to step and shoot the ball- AOC? Baker? Early season Jack White? I see Jones and Carey as the only clear starters. Everything else is up in the air. Carey is a really big kid and if he can stay out of foul trouble - he will be tough to deal with down low.

[whereinthehellami]

my first crack on minutes:

Jones - 35
Moore - 31
Hurt - 30
Carey - 27
Delaurier - 23
White - 17
Stanley - 13
AOC - 12
Baker- 7
Goldwire - 5

[907bluedevils]

Zion posted a video from practice on IG. It looks like the first unit K has out there for now looked to be Jones, AOC, Moore, Hurt, Carey.

[arnie]

Zion posted a video from practice on IG. It looks like the first unit K has out there for now looked to be Jones, AOC, Moore, Hurt, Carey.

Didn’t realize b-ball practices with head coach present started this early.

[907bluedevils]

Didn’t realize b-ball practices with head coach present started this early.

Official practices started on Tuesday

[Scorp4me]

As is evidenced in this thread the talent is very equivalent. I think this is one year where in each game Coach may only play 7 or 8 guys, but over the course of the season who those 7 or 8 guys are changes. And I don't mean just tinkering in the early season and settling on a core, I mean continuing to change depending on the hot hand or as someone else said who is practicing good. Yes it's frustrating to see talented players sit when everyone predicted a 10 man rotation, but when the players ahead of him are clearly more talented it's understandable. I just don't see that being the case this year.

I'll also say this team is I think better put together than last year. Overall talent level may be less, but they may be a more successful team.

[Matches]

The thing I've taken away from previous years' versions of this thread is that to some extent it is a fool's errand, because we have no way of knowing how injuries will affect folks' MPG. I think most of us would agree, for example, that Tre will play as many minutes as he can handle in competitive games. But what if he misses a few games, as he did last year? We've had significant injuries to key players in six of the last nine seasons (and arguably seven if you consider Bagley's injury in 2018 to be significant) - I'd love it if we had an injury-free season this year but odds are at some point there will be another vigil.

I do think the gap between the presumptive starters and the subs is smaller this year than it was for the last two, so that may work in favor of the subs getting a few more minutes. I also agree that we're likely to see 9-10 guys have individual games where they play a lot of minutes, but not the same guys each game - more or less like last year. As always, though, I don't expect to see more than 6-7 guys on the floor for significant (10+) minutes in competitive games by year's end.

[SkyBrickey]

If true, I'm not surprised to see AOC lining up with the starters. He started a lot of games for us last year and was arguably our best 3-point threat. If he makes a junior year leap with confidence, strength, and stronger defense, he could have a real breakout year and make it tough to take him off the court.

I've always felt like AOC's elite skill was his ability to elevate and shoot a soft, accurate 3-point shot against good defense. If his defender is forced to play tight, denial-like defense, that really opens up driving lanes for Tre, Wendell and others. And it hasn't always translated in his defense, but AOC is highly athletic. Looking forward to seeing his development this year.

[rocketeli]

Minutes examined

I’ve noticed that in any “minutes thread” there are often references to MK “shortening” his bench, with the implication his techniques are something of an outlier or problematic. But without context, this, like any human activity is difficult to correctly interpret. If you were told “there were 100 murders in River City last year”— is this good or bad? You can’t interpret the meaning without more context. Where there 10 or 400 murders the year before? How many murders does River City average? Is the population 10,000 or 10 million? Context is key.

So in terms of murdering minutes I did the following:

I looked at the minutes behavior of the top seven by wins active coaches working the past three years in prestigious men’s basketball programs in a P5 conference. These seven are Mike Krzyzewski, Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams, Bob Huggins, John Calipari, Rick Barnes, and Bill Self.

For each team/coach I looked at average # of players getting 10+ minutes/season, the average # of players getting 10+ in the last three games of the season (which are important and often potentially season ending), W-L numbers, winning percentage, average W-L for the three seasons, ,conference finishes, average conference finish, conference tournaments won, NCAA tournament success for the last three basketball seasons

For NCAA tournament success I used the Rocketeli Relative Satisfaction NCAA Tournament Number (TM not yet applied for)
The RRSNTN attempts to assign a relative degree of satisfaction and pleasure derived by the fans of an elite team based on their team’s performance in the NCAA tournament.
The RRSNTN assigns value points for furthest round reached as follows
Round 1 1 point
Round 2 2 points
Sweet Sixteen 4 points
Elite Eight 8 points
Final Four 16 points
Championship game 32 points
Won NCAA tournament 64 points


Results (note: in the interest of clarity, non-significant numbers are retained at times.)
Key: coach --10+min players each year (average) //average 10+minute players for last three games of season//W-L(percent W) for 3 years//average W-L//conference regular season finishes(average place)//conference tournament championships//NCAA success number


Coach 10'+ (avg) last 3 W-L (avg) avg W-L Conf (avg) ConfCh NCAA#
Krzyzewski 8/8/8 (8.0) 6.2 89-25 (.78) 29.7-7.7 3,2,5(3.33) 2 18
Boeheim 9/8/9 (8.67) 6.33 62-43 (.59) 20.7-14.3 6,10,7(7.76) 0 5
Williams 9/7/9 (8.33) 7.33 86-27 (.76) 28.7-9 1,3,1(1.67) 0 70
Huggins 11/9/10 (10) 7.67 69-42 (.62) 23-13.7 10,2,2(4.66) 0 8
Calipari 9/9/8 (8.67) 6.88 88-24 (.79) 29.3-8 2,4,1(2.33) 2 20
Barnes 8/7/11 (8.67) 7.22 73-31 (.70) 24.3-10.3 2,1,9(4.0) 0 6
Self 10/7/8 (8.33) 7.0 88-23 (.79) 29.3-7.7 3,1,1(1.67) 1 24

Obviously, there are some sample size limitations. Both Barnes and Huggins stats are affected by having one terrible year in the past three; Barnes went 16-16 and finished 9th in his conference in 2016-17 and Huggins went 15-21 in 2018-19, finished tenth and ended up bombing out of the CBI. ) Jim Boeheim, on the other hand, has been consistently mediocre the past three years. Time to hang it up?)

In terms of minutes some interesting findings.

1. With the exception of Huggins, who is an outlier, the other six hall of famer type coaches all use a fairly narrow range of 10+ minute players—ranging from 8.0 for Krzyzewski to 8.67 for Boeheim, Calipari and Barnes for the overall season.
2. Everyone “shortens their bench.” Even the outlier Huggins dropped to 7.67 for the last three games and all the others ranged between 6.2 and 7.33. This is even though many of those games were in tournaments with back to back or closely scheduled games.
3. Krzyzewski does have the lowest number for both overall and last three game 10 min+ average players, although it is not a massive difference.
4. Mike Kryzewski and John Calipari are scarily close in terms of performance over the past three seasons, even though Calipari averaged 0.67 more 10min + players in the overall season and last three games
5. On the other hand, Roy Williams did win an NCAA tournament and averaged 7.33 players the last three games versus Kryzewski’s 6.2.
6. Conclusions should be drawn with caution from limited data.
7. But—if you are someone clamoring for a 9 or even 10 player rotation, know that you are not in concordance with the best basketball minds for our generation. Virtually all extremely successful coaches use about 8 to 8 and ¾ players in a rotation over a whole season and 6 and 1/3 to 7 and 1/3 for important games.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Coach K at 6.2 is SIGNIFICANTLY less than everybody else on the board but Boeheim. That's a six man rotation in effect. Everybody else appears to be a full 7 or 8 man rotation. That's a HUGE difference in reality.

[scottdude8]

Minutes examined

I’ve noticed that in any “minutes thread” there are often references to MK “shortening” his bench, with the implication his techniques are something of an outlier or problematic. But without context, this, like any human activity is difficult to correctly interpret. If you were told “there were 100 murders in River City last year”— is this good or bad? You can’t interpret the meaning without more context. Where there 10 or 400 murders the year before? How many murders does River City average? Is the population 10,000 or 10 million? Context is key.

So in terms of murdering minutes I did the following:

I looked at the minutes behavior of the top seven by wins active coaches working the past three years in prestigious men’s basketball programs in a P5 conference. These seven are Mike Krzyzewski, Jim Boeheim, Roy Williams, Bob Huggins, John Calipari, Rick Barnes, and Bill Self.

For each team/coach I looked at average # of players getting 10+ minutes/season, the average # of players getting 10+ in the last three games of the season (which are important and often potentially season ending), W-L numbers, winning percentage, average W-L for the three seasons, ,conference finishes, average conference finish, conference tournaments won, NCAA tournament success for the last three basketball seasons

For NCAA tournament success I used the Rocketeli Relative Satisfaction NCAA Tournament Number (TM not yet applied for)
The RRSNTN attempts to assign a relative degree of satisfaction and pleasure derived by the fans of an elite team based on their team’s performance in the NCAA tournament.
The RRSNTN assigns value points for furthest round reached as follows
Round 1 1 point
Round 2 2 points
Sweet Sixteen 4 points
Elite Eight 8 points
Final Four 16 points
Championship game 32 points
Won NCAA tournament 64 points


Results (note: in the interest of clarity, non-significant numbers are retained at times.)
Key: coach --10+min players each year (average) //average 10+minute players for last three games of season//W-L(percent W) for 3 years//average W-L//conference regular season finishes(average place)//conference tournament championships//NCAA success number

Krzyzewski 8/8/8 (8.0) // 6.2 //89-25 (.78)// 29.7-7.7 //3,2,5(3.33) //2//18
Boeheim 9/8/9 (8.67) //6.33//62-43 (.59)// 20.7-14.3//6,10,7(7.67)//0//5
Williams 9/7/9 (8.33)//7.33//86-27 (.76)// 28.7-9 //1,3,1(1.67) //0//70
Huggins 11/9/10 (10) //7.67//69-42 (.62)// 23-13.7 //10,2,2(4.66)//0//8
Calipari 9/9/8 (8.67) //6.88//88-24(.79)//29.3-8 //2,4,1(2.33) //2//20
Barnes 8/7/11(8.67) //7.22//73-31(.70)//24.3-10.3//2,1,9(4.0 )//0//6
Self 10/7/8 (8.33)//7.0 //88-23 (.79)//29.3-7.7 //3,1,1(1.67)//1//24

Obviously, there are some sample size limitations. Both Barnes and Huggins stats are affected by having one terrible year in the past three; Barnes went 16-16 and finished 9th in his conference in 2016-17 and Huggins went 15-21 in 2018-19, finished tenth and ended up bombing out of the CBI. ) Jim Boeheim, on the other hand, has been consistently mediocre the past three years. Time to hang it up?)

In terms of minutes some interesting findings.

1. With the exception of Huggins, who is an outlier, the other six hall of famer type coaches all use a fairly narrow range of 10+ minute players—ranging from 8.0 for Krzyzewski to 8.67 for Boeheim, Calipari and Barnes for the overall season.
2. Everyone “shortens their bench.” Even the outlier Huggins dropped to 7.67 for the last three games and all the others ranged between 6.2 and 7.33. This is even though many of those games were in tournaments with back to back or closely scheduled games.
3. Krzyzewski does have the lowest number for both overall and last three game 10 min+ average players, although it is not a massive difference.
4. Mike Kryzewski and John Calipari are scarily close in terms of performance over the past three seasons, even though Calipari averaged 0.67 more 10min + players in the overall season and last three games
5. On the other hand, Roy Williams did win an NCAA tournament and averaged 7.33 players the last three games versus Kryzewski’s 6.2.
6. Conclusions should be drawn with caution from limited data.
7. But—if you are someone clamoring for a 9 or even 10 player rotation, know that you are not in concordance with the best basketball minds for our generation. Virtually all extremely successful coaches use about 8 to 8 and ¾ players in a rotation over a whole season and 6 and 1/3 to 7 and 1/3 for important games.

This was a typo. Please tell me this was a typo and no minutes were harmed in the creation of this post ;p

[MarkD83]

Oh what the heck...I'll join in with a different twist

Tre Jones 67 min
Vernon Carey 67 min
Matthew Hurt 66 min
.......

[slower]

Jim, I’m excited to see Javin’s upgraded game.

Ah, is THIS the year that Javin "gets it" or "makes the leap"? Keep on dreaming.

[sagegrouse]

Ah, is THIS the year that Javin "gets it" or "makes the leap"? Keep on dreaming.

His "leaps" need to be more judicious, don't you think? Here are minutes per foul stats for returning players:

DeLaurier 6.1
Goldwire 10.0
White 11.2
T. Jones 22.0
O'Connell 26.6

[rocketeli]

Ah, is THIS the year that Javin "gets it" or "makes the leap"? Keep on dreaming.

This. I'm sure Javin is a great guy and a hard worker who wants to be the best he can be, but if he were going to develop soon actual basketball specific skills he most likely would have done so by now.

[Nrrrrvous]

His "leaps" need to be more judicious, don't you think? Here are minutes per foul stats for returning players:

DeLaurier 6.1
Goldwire 10.0
White 11.2
T. Jones 22.0
O'Connell 26.6

That's actually higher than I would have guessed.

[SkyBrickey]

Interesting to see all the negativity around Javin. I’ve watched him improve every single year and he had some stellar games last year. He’s never going to be a major offensive force but he brings a lot to the floor with his defense, rebounding and leadership.

Coach K pointed out in his presser that he got a lot out of testing the NBA waters and had really improved. I expect Carey to play more minutes. I hope he does. I hope he’s that good. But I also expect Javin to have a strong senior year for us, including limiting the fouls playing more within himself.

[slower]

But I also expect Javin to have a strong senior year for us, including limiting the fouls playing more within himself.

I desire it, but I do not expect it. Great kid, but he is what he is, until proven otherwise.

Like a Josh Hairston or Amile Jefferson jumper, or a Demarcus Nelson non-turnover drive into traffic, these are the mythical pots of gold we desire.

[SkyBrickey]

I desire it, but I do not expect it. Great kid, but he is what he is, until proven otherwise.

Like a Josh Hairston or Amile Jefferson jumper, or a Demarcus Nelson non-turnover drive into traffic, these are the mythical pots of gold we desire.

He’s a kid who has gotten better each year at Duke. I expect him to continue to improve. Coach publicly states that he has.

Of course you are free to hate on his game, but I will bet that next season, even you will be wishing we had Javin back for just one more year.

[SkyBrickey]

And in case people have forgotten, last year ended with an L to Mich St but Javin showed up big time with a double-double in 23 minutes. Yes, he is what he is.

[Kedsy]

Ah, is THIS the year that Javin "gets it" or "makes the leap"? Keep on dreaming.


This. I'm sure Javin is a great guy and a hard worker who wants to be the best he can be, but if he were going to develop soon actual basketball specific skills he most likely would have done so by now.


I desire it, but I do not expect it. Great kid, but he is what he is, until proven otherwise.

I have two words for you guys: Brian Zoubek.

I distinctly remember a lot of people on this board saying similar stuff about Mr. Zoubek as is now being said about Javin. Sure, Zoubek and DeLaurier are quite different players, and I admit that Zoubekian transformations are very rare, but Brian Zoubek's junior year production and Javin DeLaurier's junior year production were pretty similar, especially in fouls per 40. Yeah, Z had more points and rebounds, but Javin had more steals and blocks, and higher percentages. Senior year, Zoubek's per minute numbers went up, but for the first 24 games it was difficult to notice because he committed a whopping 8.77 fouls per 40 minutes. Then, starting with the famous Maryland game, everybody noticed the "leap," though his per minute numbers didn't change that much. What changed is he cut his fouls down to 5.97 fouls per 40 over his final 16 games, and that enabled him to stay on the floor and become the legend everyone now remembers.

Will Javin pull a similar trick? Who can say? But can he? Sure. If Brian Zoubek could cut his fouls down from a similar level at the same point in his career, why not Javin? And if Javin can get his minutes into the mid-20s, like Zoubek did his last 16 games, then I see no reason he can't have a Zoubek-like impact (albeit more with elite steals & blocks than with elite offensive rebounding; both guys are/were strong, though differently styled defenders) on Duke's 2020 performance.



Player eFG% tS% usage pts/40 rebs/40 asts/40 stls/40 blks/40 fls/40
BZ 2009 57.5% 60.9% 16.4 13.7 12.5 1.4 1.4 2.7 6.7
JD 2019 74.7% 71.0% 10.1 9.4 10.7 1.1 2.1 3.2 6.5

[phaedrus]

I have two words for you guys: Brian Zoubek.

I distinctly remember a lot of people on this board saying similar stuff about Mr. Zoubek as is now being said about Javin. Sure, Zoubek and DeLaurier are quite different players, and I admit that Zoubekian transformations are very rare, but Brian Zoubek's junior year production and Javin DeLaurier's junior year production were pretty similar, especially in fouls per 40. Yeah, Z had more points and rebounds, but Javin had more steals and blocks, and higher percentages. Senior year, Zoubek's per minute numbers went up, but for the first 24 games it was difficult to notice because he committed a whopping 8.77 fouls per 40 minutes. Then, starting with the famous Maryland game, everybody noticed the "leap," though his per minute numbers didn't change that much. What changed is he cut his fouls down to 5.97 fouls per 40 over his final 16 games, and that enabled him to stay on the floor and become the legend everyone now remembers.

Will Javin pull a similar trick? Who can say? But can he? Sure. If Brian Zoubek could cut his fouls down from a similar level at the same point in his career, why not Javin? And if Javin can get his minutes into the mid-20s, like Zoubek did his last 16 games, then I see no reason he can't have a Zoubek-like impact (albeit more with elite steals & blocks than with elite offensive rebounding; both guys are/were strong, though differently styled defenders) on Duke's 2020 performance.



Player eFG% tS% usage pts/40 rebs/40 asts/40 stls/40 blks/40 fls/40
BZ 2009 57.5% 60.9% 16.4 13.7 12.5 1.4 1.4 2.7 6.7
JD 2019 74.7% 71.0% 10.1 9.4 10.7 1.1 2.1 3.2 6.5


All of this may be true, but I don't see Javin intentionally missing a free throw to run the clock out on a national championship. The miss will come naturally.

[SkyBrickey]

CBS Sports mock draft with Tre at 16 and Hurt at 21. Neither Moore nor Carey are in their top 30.

As much as I'd love to have Carey back for his sophomore season, the rumor is that he's now healthy and in great shape. I expect the former #1 prospect in the class to also play with a bit of a chip on his shoulder.

Another note from the mock draft. They have Cole Anthony at #1 and highlight his 43" vertical and MVP award from EYBL where he averaged 27 pts and 8 rebs per game. It's going to be really fun watching him and Tre do battle this year - shaping up to be an epic match-up of strength vs strength when UNC has the ball.

[scottdude8]

I have two words for you guys: Brian Zoubek.

I distinctly remember a lot of people on this board saying similar stuff about Mr. Zoubek as is now being said about Javin. Sure, Zoubek and DeLaurier are quite different players, and I admit that Zoubekian transformations are very rare, but Brian Zoubek's junior year production and Javin DeLaurier's junior year production were pretty similar, especially in fouls per 40. Yeah, Z had more points and rebounds, but Javin had more steals and blocks, and higher percentages. Senior year, Zoubek's per minute numbers went up, but for the first 24 games it was difficult to notice because he committed a whopping 8.77 fouls per 40 minutes. Then, starting with the famous Maryland game, everybody noticed the "leap," though his per minute numbers didn't change that much. What changed is he cut his fouls down to 5.97 fouls per 40 over his final 16 games, and that enabled him to stay on the floor and become the legend everyone now remembers.

Will Javin pull a similar trick? Who can say? But can he? Sure. If Brian Zoubek could cut his fouls down from a similar level at the same point in his career, why not Javin? And if Javin can get his minutes into the mid-20s, like Zoubek did his last 16 games, then I see no reason he can't have a Zoubek-like impact (albeit more with elite steals & blocks than with elite offensive rebounding; both guys are/were strong, though differently styled defenders) on Duke's 2020 performance.



Player eFG% tS% usage pts/40 rebs/40 asts/40 stls/40 blks/40 fls/40
BZ 2009 57.5% 60.9% 16.4 13.7 12.5 1.4 1.4 2.7 6.7
JD 2019 74.7% 71.0% 10.1 9.4 10.7 1.1 2.1 3.2 6.5


Ummm... did you pay the necessary fee for using the term Zoubekian (TM)? Because I didn't notice anything in my bank account...

Besides loving this post for the Zoubek shoutout, I love it for highlighting the fact that players improve! A lot of us are operating under the erroneous assumption that Javin and Jack will be the exact same players they were last year, warts and all. Javin must know that the key to his success this year is staying on the floor, and I have to think he's worked on that, not to mention his hands and ability to score around the rim. Jack must know that his shot needs to fall to contribute to this team, so I have to think he spent a lot of time getting his confidence back from behind the arc. There's every reason to believe that guys who stay in the program will get better because of it.

I bring this point up every so often, but it bears repeating. MSU's Kenny Goins hit the killer 3 against us in the Elite 8 and was a key to their success all year. He didn't take a single three pointer in his first two seasons, and as a junior he was 4-15 on the season beyond the arc. As a senior, he made 56 3s at a 34% clip. All of this is the emphasize the point that players can still improve between their junior and senior seasons , which gets lost in the new landscape where we're lucky to even get a second year from our contributing players.

What makes this team so exciting for me is more the potential improvement from guys like Javin, Jack, AOC and Goldwire than the talent of the incoming freshmen class. The incoming talent is there, as it has been almost every year in the past... but what we haven't had the past five years is a solid core of upperclassmen who could take a leap forward in leadership and productivity. One of those four guys, more likely than not, is going to take a huge step forward in a way we didn't necessarily see coming. That's going to be fun to watch.

[UrinalCake]

I would be happy with Javin making a Marshall Plumlee-type jump for his senior year. MP3 also struggled with committing too many fouls his first three seasons (after the redshirt year). But things finally slowed down for him. He was huge in that 2016 season as the only real big on the team, and obviously a great leader.

[SkyBrickey]

scottdude, totally agree with your perspective.

I'm hopeful Jack returns to early last-season form on his 3 pointers. I think there's a good chance that he will. I think it became very mental for him and he had a whole off season and a run with the Australian team to put that behind him. I love him on the floor for his rebounding, blocked shots and leadership - but he will need to knock down 3s to earn significant minutes, especially if MH is as good as projected.

I feel more confident that Javin is going to have a big year. His achilles heel - his foul rate and inability to stay on the floor - is more easily fixed in my opinion. It's a matter of dialing back the aggression a bit, choosing his spots more carefully to make a defensive play. He wants a shot at the NBA and is very motivated to get minutes. My guess is that he figures this out and makes a nice leap this year.

AOC could also make a big leap on defense and JG could make a leap with his outside shot. I too am just as excited to see what these 4 bring this year as I am to get a look at the freshmen + Joey Baker.

[Kedsy]

All of this may be true, but I don't see Javin intentionally missing a free throw to run the clock out on a national championship. The miss will come naturally.

In 2009-10, Brian Zoubek shot 55.1% from the free throw line. Last season Javin shot 56.0%. So it's not like Z was so much better than Javin from the line.


... but what we haven't had the past five years is a solid core of upperclassmen who could take a leap forward in leadership and productivity. One of those four guys, more likely than not, is going to take a huge step forward in a way we didn't necessarily see coming. That's going to be fun to watch.

Actually, at this point in each of the last five years (except for 2017-18), we've had a solid core of upperclassmen at least as impressive (probably more) than this year's group:

UPPERCLASSMEN, ENTERING SEASON

2015: Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Rasheed Sulaimon, Marshall Plumlee
2016: Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee
2017: Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Sean Obi
2018: Grayson Allen, Antonio Vrankovic
2019: Marques Bolden, Javin DeLaurier, Jack White, Antonio Vrankovic

Each year also featured contributing sophomores (e.g., Luke Kennard in 2016-17) and potentially contributing sophomores (even though they didn't work out, e.g., Semi Ojeleye in 2014-15).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

In 2009-10, Brian Zoubek shot 55.1% from the free throw line. Last season Javin shot 56.0%. So it's not like Z was so much better than Javin from the line.



Actually, at this point in each of the last five years (except for 2017-18), we've had a solid core of upperclassmen at least as impressive (probably more) than this year's group:

UPPERCLASSMEN, ENTERING SEASON

2015: Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Rasheed Sulaimon, Marshall Plumlee
2016: Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee
2017: Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Sean Obi
2018: Grayson Allen, Antonio Vrankovic
2019: Marques Bolden, Javin DeLaurier, Jack White, Antonio Vrankovic

Each year also featured contributing sophomores (e.g., Luke Kennard in 2016-17) and potentially contributing sophomores (even though they didn't work out, e.g., Semi Ojeleye in 2014-15).

I have bad news for you re: Bolden...

Ed: wait, are you referring to the season past as 2019? I think you are.

Disregard

[scottdude8]

In 2009-10, Brian Zoubek shot 55.1% from the free throw line. Last season Javin shot 56.0%. So it's not like Z was so much better than Javin from the line.



Actually, at this point in each of the last five years (except for 2017-18), we've had a solid core of upperclassmen at least as impressive (probably more) than this year's group:

UPPERCLASSMEN, ENTERING SEASON

2015: Quinn Cook, Amile Jefferson, Rasheed Sulaimon, Marshall Plumlee
2016: Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee
2017: Grayson Allen, Amile Jefferson, Matt Jones, Sean Obi
2018: Grayson Allen, Antonio Vrankovic
2019: Marques Bolden, Javin DeLaurier, Jack White, Antonio Vrankovic

Each year also featured contributing sophomores (e.g., Luke Kennard in 2016-17) and potentially contributing sophomores (even though they didn't work out, e.g., Semi Ojeleye in 2014-15).

Very good point. I was thinking more the past two years and extended it back too far. While we had three juniors and a senior last year, none of them had been "major contributors" the year before (only Marques and Javin had played serious minutes), whereas this year all of Javin, Jack, Alex and Jordan have big game experience to varying degrees. Thanks for catching me there, I definitely projected back too far.

[rocketeli]

Ummm... did you pay the necessary fee for using the term Zoubekian (TM)? Because I didn't notice anything in my bank account...

Besides loving this post for the Zoubek shoutout, I love it for highlighting the fact that players improve! A lot of us are operating under the erroneous assumption that Javin and Jack will be the exact same players they were last year, warts and all. Javin must know that the key to his success this year is staying on the floor, and I have to think he's worked on that, not to mention his hands and ability to score around the rim. Jack must know that his shot needs to fall to contribute to this team, so I have to think he spent a lot of time getting his confidence back from behind the arc. There's every reason to believe that guys who stay in the program will get better because of it.

I bring this point up every so often, but it bears repeating. MSU's Kenny Goins hit the killer 3 against us in the Elite 8 and was a key to their success all year. He didn't take a single three pointer in his first two seasons, and as a junior he was 4-15 on the season beyond the arc. As a senior, he made 56 3s at a 34% clip. All of this is the emphasize the point that players can still improve between their junior and senior seasons , which gets lost in the new landscape where we're lucky to even get a second year from our contributing players.

What makes this team so exciting for me is more the potential improvement from guys like Javin, Jack, AOC and Goldwire than the talent of the incoming freshmen class. The incoming talent is there, as it has been almost every year in the past... but what we haven't had the past five years is a solid core of upperclassmen who could take a leap forward in leadership and productivity. One of those four guys, more likely than not, is going to take a huge step forward in a way we didn't necessarily see coming. That's going to be fun to watch.

Actually, on a tangential point, there are three things that a player could do; improve, stay the same or get worse (injured, distracted, not fitting in with new team or game plans, etc.) That's why preseason polls are so random. They assume everyone coming back will be better, as in "X team has all five starters back, they are going to rule!" In that situation, the probability of that occurring is .33x.33x.343x.33x.33= .04% (.004)

[CDu]

Actually, on a tangential point, there are three things that a player could do; improve, stay the same or get worse (injured, distracted, not fitting in with new team or game plans, etc.) That's why preseason polls are so random. They assume everyone coming back will be better, as in "X team has all five starters back, they are going to rule!" In that situation, the probability of that occurring is .33x.33x.343x.33x.33= .04% (.004)

Minor quibble, but that math only works if each player is equally likely to achieve each of those three outcomes. I would venture that “get better” and “stay the same” are both much more likely than “gets worse.”

[SkyBrickey]

Don’t mean to be rude but that’s some silly math...

[rocketeli]

Don’t mean to be rude but that’s some silly math...

Don't blame the messenger--I didn't invent math. But it is silly, in the sense that improvement and the reverse are not controlled by chance. But it does illustrate one way that preseason predictions are based on a lot of assumptions that might not pan out.

[scottdude8]

Don't blame the messenger--I didn't invent math. But it is silly, in the sense that improvement and the reverse are not controlled by chance. But it does illustrate one way that preseason predictions are based on a lot of assumptions that might not pan out.

Wait, are you sure you didn't invent math? I'm pretty sure I remember studying the "rocketli Theorem" during my Ph.D...

All kidding aside, you're 100% right that we should account for all three of those possibilities when projecting returning players. But like others have said, what is the likelihood of each actually happening? In situations like these, I always like to think about the mathematical concept of "pot odds" thats often used in poker or gambling generally. The idea, simply summarized, is this: you analyze the probability of each possible outcome as well as the gain or loss that outcome would be associated with. Then you take the "expectation", meaning you multiple the probability of each event by its outcome score, and sum all of those up (so that all the probabilities equal 1, meaning you've accounted for every option). Once you do this, if the "expectation" is positive, that means "making the bet" is in your favor mathematically speaking (i.e. if you were to play the same hand of poker a large number of times, in the average you'd come out a winner), but if the "expectation" is negative the bet isn't mathematically speaking a smart one.

I love thinking about this when it comes to late game decision making in football/basketball. Should you foul when up 3 late? Should you go for it on fourth down at midfield with five minutes to go? Pot-odds type calculations are super useful in those cases (and, slowly but surely, are making their way into the game via analytically-minded coaches).

Now, in this specific case, if the argument is that the three scenarios you outlined (improve, stay the same, get worse) are equally likely, and you put an equal value (positive and negative) on the improvement and regression (and "stay the same" gets a value of 0), then there wouldn't be any net gain one way or the other. But, the point that others are trying to make here, which I think is very valid, is that A) Players, particularly at Duke, are more likely to improve rather than regress the longer they stay in the program, and B) the amount that a player improves is typically going to be larger in magnitude than the amount that a player regresses. Mathematically, that means the probability of improving is greater than the probability of regressing, and the positive value of improvement is larger in magnitude than the negative value of regressing. That means that the "safe bet" is that, on the whole, players staying in the program will lead to their improvement.

Obviously this calculation relies on how you quantify the probabilities and values, which is inherently subjective, so reasonable people can come to different conclusions here. But a "pot odds" calculation is a very useful tool, I think, when trying to determine what the best move to do is generally speaking, or the most likely outcome is, when there are a lot of possibilities and variables at play. In this case, I think that on average it's much more likely that a guy like AOC for example takes a step forward between his sophomore and junior years (improving his shooting, his confidence, his decision making, his strength/speed) rather than regress. But an interesting thought experiment regardless!

[dukelifer]

Minor quibble, but that math only works if each player is equally likely to achieve each of those three outcomes. I would venture that “get better” and “stay the same” are both much more likely than “gets worse.”

Also there is also getting better and worse during the same year- ala Jack White

[Kedsy]

Also there is also getting better and worse during the same year- ala Jack White

Or maybe what seemed like getting better/worse over the course of a single season was due to small sample size and regression to the mean.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Or maybe what seemed like getting better/worse over the course of a single season was due to small sample size and regression to the mean.

That is certainly possible, but there is evidence that would suggest otherwise....

[rsvman]

That is certainly possible, but there is evidence that would suggest otherwise...

Evidence? Now I'm curious.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Evidence? Now I'm curious.

Well to start, I said "evidence that sould suggest" which is not the same as "proof." With that caveat, here we go:

White was the best 3 point shooter in the off season and in practice on the team. There was a law of large numbers stat kept on the three point shooting for all team members, it was discussed on DBR some, and White was the clear winner. That's not exactly like game situations, but it's not totally unlike it either. It is at least some evidence.

The team clearly thought Jack was indeed a very good three point shooter, which is why he was allowed to shoot them in games. And for a while, he was over 40%. This is clearly what the team and the coaches expected from seeing him. This is a little more evidence, unless you want to say that Duke coaches and players are not good judges of shooting prowess.

Then there's the awful Syracuse game from hell...where due to several other circumstances, Jack was allowed to, or forced to, jack up ten three point shots even though he never hit one. Again, the team and coaches surely knew Jack had good three point ability, or this would have NEVER happened. Again, not proof, but certainly some more evidence.

This above certainly meets the requirement of "evidence that suggests." What happened to White was a pretty severe case of a slump, which played on itself with a downward spiral of confidence. This happens in all sports from time to time. Shooting, unlike running and jumping, is very much a mental pursuit. This got into Jack's head, and the results of that were the outlier, not Jack's proficient period.

To say that the slump was regression to the mean is to suggest that the first few games were the fluke, and that his teammates and coaches were all wrong in their assessments that he was indeed a talented three point shooter. I mean, think about it.....


.

[pfrduke]

Well to start, I said "evidence that sould suggest" which is not the same as "proof." With that caveat, here we go:

White was the best 3 point shooter in the off season and in practice on the team. There was a law of large numbers stat kept on the three point shooting for all team members, it was discussed on DBR some, and White was the clear winner. That's not exactly like game situations, but it's not totally unlike it either. It is at least some evidence.

The team clearly thought Jack was indeed a very good three point shooter, which is why he was allowed to shoot them in games. And for a while, he was over 40%. This is clearly what the team and the coaches expected from seeing him. This is a little more evidence, unless you want to say that Duke coaches and players are not good judges of shooting prowess.

Then there's the awful Syracuse game from hell...where due to several other circumstances, Jack was allowed to, or forced to, jack up ten three point shots even though he never hit one. Again, the team and coaches surely knew Jack had good three point ability, or this would have NEVER happened. Again, not proof, but certainly some more evidence.

This above certainly meets the requirement of "evidence that suggests." What happened to White was a pretty severe case of a slump, which played on itself with a downward spiral of confidence. This happens in all sports from time to time. Shooting, unlike running and jumping, is very much a mental pursuit. This got into Jack's head, and the results of that were the outlier, not Jack's proficient period.

To say that the slump was regression to the mean is to suggest that the first few games were the fluke, and that his teammates and coaches were all wrong in their assessments that he was indeed a talented three point shooter. I mean, think about it...

Jack White has played 73 games at Duke. He had a stretch of 13 games at the start of last season where he shot 21-51 from 3. In the other 60 games he has combined to shoot 9-60 (not a misprint).

I have no doubt Jack is a good shooter in practice. The list of good shooters in practice who were not able to translate it consistently to game play is very, very long. I don't believe Jack's "true" 3 point ability is his 9-60 number. But I also think it's optimistic to suggest that his "true" 3 point ability is what he showed in one 13-game stretch. His true ability is probably closer to the average of those two.

[MChambers]

Jack White has played 73 games at Duke. He had a stretch of 13 games at the start of last season where he shot 21-51 from 3. In the other 60 games he has combined to shoot 9-60 (not a misprint).

I have no doubt Jack is a good shooter in practice. The list of good shooters in practice who were not able to translate it consistently to game play is very, very long. I don't believe Jack's "true" 3 point ability is his 9-60 number. But I also think it's optimistic to suggest that his "true" 3 point ability is what he showed in one 13-game stretch. His true ability is probably closer to the average of those two.

Except that it was proven in another thread that there is exactly a 33.33333% chance he'll improve this year.

[sagegrouse]

Jack White has played 73 games at Duke. He had a stretch of 13 games at the start of last season where he shot 21-51 from 3. In the other 60 games he has combined to shoot 9-60 (not a misprint).

I have no doubt Jack is a good shooter in practice. The list of good shooters in practice who were not able to translate it consistently to game play is very, very long. I don't believe Jack's "true" 3 point ability is his 9-60 number. But I also think it's optimistic to suggest that his "true" 3 point ability is what he showed in one 13-game stretch. His true ability is probably closer to the average of those two.

On the other hand, he has made 33 of 39 free throws for 84.6 percent. He should be a decent three-point shooter, shouldn't he?

[AGDukesky]

On the other hand, he has made 33 of 39 free throws for 84.6 percent. He should be a decent three-point shooter, shouldn't he?

Depends- how many of those FTs were made/taken during the 13 games he was able to make 3 pointers?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Jack White has played 73 games at Duke. He had a stretch of 13 games at the start of last season where he shot 21-51 from 3. In the other 60 games he has combined to shoot 9-60 (not a misprint).

I have no doubt Jack is a good shooter in practice. The list of good shooters in practice who were not able to translate it consistently to game play is very, very long. I don't believe Jack's "true" 3 point ability is his 9-60 number. But I also think it's optimistic to suggest that his "true" 3 point ability is what he showed in one 13-game stretch. His true ability is probably closer to the average of those two.

Yeah, leave it to coach K, Scheyer, Nate, Zion and the boys to be fooled by Jack's good shooting in practice and foolishly play him as if he's a good shooter who merely needs to break out of a mental slump. How could they be so dumb as to trust their eyes and their instincts in practice and in the first 13 games? I guess we need a better coach.

[Truth&Justise]

Yeah, leave it to coach K, Scheyer, Nate, Zion and the boys to be fooled by Jack's good shooting in practice and foolishly play him as if he's a good shooter who merely needs to break out of a mental slump. How could they be so dumb as to trust their eyes and their instincts in practice and in the first 13 games? I guess we need a better coach.

That's pretty disingenuous -- no one is disparaging the coaching staff. It's very reasonable to expect a player to normally perform somewhere between his best and worst performance averages, rather than pointing to one extreme as the "true" player. Saying so is not a dig at Coach K or an insult to the coaches and teammates who gave him the opportunity to shoot.

[chris13]

Michael Savarino better get some minutes or Coach K is going to sleeping on his office couch. :)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

That's pretty disingenuous -- no one is disparaging the coaching staff. It's very reasonable to expect a player to normally perform somewhere between his best and worst performance averages, rather than pointing to one extreme as the "true" player. Saying so is not a dig at Coach K or an insult to the coaches and teammates who gave him the opportunity to shoot.

Well settle down...I was using rhetoric to make the point...that while no one was intentionally disparaging the coaching staff, the LOGICAL EXTENSION OF THEIR ARGUMENT certainly did and does. There is no other way to put lipstick on that pig. Unpack it any way you want, but their conclusion must be that if Coach K kept Jack shooting, it means Coach K was not smart enough to figure out that Jack's 21-51 start was a fluke. No. Way. Around. This.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Michael Savarino better get some minutes or Coach K is going to sleeping on his office couch. :)

Oooooooooo. Wanna bet?

15 min tops all season.

[pfrduke]

Well settle down...I was using rhetoric to make the point...that while no one was intentionally disparaging the coaching staff, the LOGICAL EXTENSION OF THEIR ARGUMENT certainly did and does. There is no other way to put lipstick on that pig. Unpack it any way you want, but their conclusion must be that if Coach K kept Jack shooting, it means Coach K was not smart enough to figure out that Jack's 21-51 start was a fluke. No. Way. Around. This.

Wait just a minute. There is a HUGE logical gap between saying that White's shooting regressed and that the coaching staff should have prohibited him from shooting 3s. And saying that his shooting regressed is not the same as saying his 21-51 start is a "fluke." Shooters will have better and worse stretches over the course of their play. 21-51 seems to be at the high end of what White would accomplish over any meaningful stretch of games. Low 30s seems to be a reasonable expectation based on his shooting to date. Post-Syracuse, Jack played about 300 minutes over 19 games and attempted 30 3s. Letting a low 30s 3-point shooter take 1.5 3s per game (or 1 per 10 minutes of play) seems like the right amount of shots.

I don't see why this is a choice between "Jack is really a 40%+ 3-point shooter" or "the coaches are morons" - there is a wide range of other reasonable explanations between those two things.

[SkyBrickey]

Love all the potential combinations this year. Just like we could go big with Carey and Javin on the floor together, if Jack is knocking down 3s like he was the first half of last season, we can also go big with Jack, Hurt and one of the bigs on the floor together.

[kAzE]

This won't be my "minutes contest" entry, but I will attempt to guess Coach K's postseason rotation (so this is assuming we are in a very important game, and Coach K will almost certainly be working with a 7.5 man rotation).

PG: Tre Jones 40
SG: Wendell Moore 25, Alex O'Connell 15
SF: Joey Baker 25, Wendell Moore 10, Jack White 5
PF: Matthew Hurt 26, Jack White 10, Javin DeLaurier 4
C: Vernon Carey 26, Javin DeLaurier 14

Totals: Tre Jones 40, Wendell Moore 35, Matthew Hurt 26, Vernon Carey 26, Joey Baker 25, Javin DeLaurier 18, Jack White 15, Alex O'Connell 15

For the record, I fully expect Alex O'Connell to begin the year as the starter at the 2 guard. I also fully expect guys like Stanley Johnson and Jordan Goldwire to get significant minutes in the regular season, maybe even start a few games. This is my completely blind guess at what the rotation will be like in March. But, I'm sure you'll notice I have Joey Baker starting at the 3 and Wendell at the 2, which, going by most of the posts in this thread, is a flaming hot take.

I'm just kind of over Alex O'Connell personally. I think he's a wonderful shooter, likely the best stand still shooter on the team. But it's been 3 years, and he's not shown enough improvement in my eyes on defense and in basketball IQ. In the postseason last year, outside of the Virginia Tech game that Cam Reddish missed, he barely got off the bench. He played a total of 14 minutes in the ACC tournament. He's still the 0.5 in my rotation, so I think he's going to improve from where he was last year, but I just like the defensive upside of Wendell Moore, paired with Tre Jones on the perimeter.

I'm planting my flag on Joey Baker, though. I believe he will be the surprise breakout on the team this year. He's more athletic than most people think he is, and is more than just a shooter on offense. I think he has the ability to create his own shot, which is something we don't have much of on this team. Not to toot my own horn, but I predicted last year that Jack White would play significant minutes, and also a few years back, that Luke Kennard would break out in his 2nd year. It's a bit more of a stretch this time, but this year, I'm predicting it'll be Joey Baker.

However, this is all speculation. I completely agree, it's hard to predict this year who will emerge from the Stanley/Joey/Alex trio. I think only 1 of those 3 guys can be in the top 7 of the rotation, and I'm picking Joey Baker.

[kAzE]

I also fully expect guys like Stanley Johnson and Jordan Goldwire to get significant minutes in the regular season, maybe even start a few games.

****Cassius Stanley.

Wow, it's been a long day.

[sagegrouse]

Still mulling my projected minutes Her4e's one observation that may have been said by others or, heaven forfends, by me. Everyone who earned minutes last season is likely to play the same or more minutes this year.

Reason: the players we are gaining are not as accomplished as the ones we lost. In other words, RJ, Zion, Cam and Marques seem to be stronger players, collectively, than Moore, Carey, Cassius Stanley and Hurt. Now Joey Baker is essentially an addition to the roster, since he was late to the party last year -- so he could complicate the calculations.

Just a thought

Here are minutes from 2018-2019, divided by 38. Leaves out Baker, Justin and Buckmire.



DeLaurier 16.3
Goldwire 7.9
Jones 32.4
O'Connell 13.3
White 18.8

I am thinking that these players will play at least the minutes of last year.

Still thinking,
Sage Grouse

-- In other news, a hole-in-one on #14 today -- 134 yards with a nine iron.

[DallasDevil]

The season starts in just 5 days, and it's been 4 weeks since there was a post in the rotation/minutes thread?! Is it just me, or does there seem to be less excitement about this year's team than in the past few years? Not sure if it's due to the relative lack of top level recruits, the difficulty in accessing CTC and exhibition games because of the ACCNX setup, or something else.

As it relates to the minutes discussion, we have had a few questions answered. 1. Coach K said in his press conference after yesterday's games that he plans to redshirt Savarino (and Worthington), so likely no minutes for them this year. 2. Baker really can shoot. The question is whether he can do other things well enough to get on the court, or if Duke will need his shooting enough that he will get minutes even if he does not contribute in other ways. 3. It seems that Goldwire is firmly in the rotation (depending on your definition of "rotation" of course).

After watching CTC and the exhibitions, my projected minutes ranges would be:

Jones-As many minutes as he can handle. Averaging around 35.
Hurt-Same. Averaging high 20s to around 30.
Carey-Mid 20s
Stanley/Moore-Not sure there's much separation between the two right now, though I was slightly more impressed with Stanley. Both in the high teens to low 20s on average, with whoever is playing better getting more minutes in any given game.
White/DeLaurier-Both around 15-18
Goldwire-Somewhere in the teens.
O'Connell-This one is tough. He's a junior, has played decent minutes in the past, and is probably a better outside shooter than anyone above him. However, I've already listed 8 guys and with Coach K still on the bench it's hard to predict a 9th player getting many minutes. But I think this is finally the year that K uses his bench and AOC gets double digit minutes on average.
Baker/Robinson-Whatever is left. Joey's performance last night notwithstanding, I still think he's another year away from being solidly in the rotation.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The season starts in just 5 days, and it's been 4 weeks since there was a post in the rotation/minutes thread?! Is it just me, or does there seem to be less excitement about this year's team than in the past few years? Not sure if it's due to the relative lack of top level recruits, the difficulty in accessing CTC and exhibition games because of the ACCNX setup, or something else.

As it relates to the minutes discussion, we have had a few questions answered. 1. Coach K said in his press conference after yesterday's games that he plans to redshirt Savarino (and Worthington), so likely no minutes for them this year. 2. Baker really can shoot. The question is whether he can do other things well enough to get on the court, or if Duke will need his shooting enough that he will get minutes even if he does not contribute in other ways. 3. It seems that Goldwire is firmly in the rotation (depending on your definition of "rotation" of course).

After watching CTC and the exhibitions, my projected minutes ranges would be:

Jones-As many minutes as he can handle. Averaging around 35.
Hurt-Same. Averaging high 20s to around 30.
Carey-Mid 20s
Stanley/Moore-Not sure there's much separation between the two right now, though I was slightly more impressed with Stanley. Both in the high teens to low 20s on average, with whoever is playing better getting more minutes in any given game.
White/DeLaurier-Both around 15-18
Goldwire-Somewhere in the teens.
O'Connell-This one is tough. He's a junior, has played decent minutes in the past, and is probably a better outside shooter than anyone above him. However, I've already listed 8 guys and with Coach K still on the bench it's hard to predict a 9th player getting many minutes. But I think this is finally the year that K uses his bench and AOC gets double digit minutes on average.
Baker/Robinson-Whatever is left. Joey's performance last night notwithstanding, I still think he's another year away from being solidly in the rotation.

Maybe we redshirt Baker...

(Too soon?)

[flyingdutchdevil]

Maybe we redshirt Baker...

(Too soon?)

Never too soon. Coach K is a legend, but I'm sure even he'll admit it was a dumb idea to pull that redshirt. Especially if Baker doesn't play much this year.

[rsvman]

Maybe we redshirt Baker...

(Too soon?)

I'd say play him. Often.

Last year was really frustrating with the poor 3-point shooting. If Baker can shoot, give him minutes! We really, really need to open up the offense by some strong outside shooting.

[budwom]

Yes, the mystery ingredient is shooting. Anybody who shows he can come off the bench and his some shots will find playing time, be that Baker, White or anyone else. I just have no clue who that will be, and it may well not be anybody.

[Troublemaker]

Yes, the mystery ingredient is shooting. Anybody who shows he can come off the bench and his some shots will find playing time, be that Baker, White or anyone else. I just have no clue who that will be, and it may well not be anybody.

I wish it were that simple. I mean, there's very little doubt (even before yesterday's game) that Hurt, Baker, and O'Connell can shoot. Too many stats and scouting reports would have to be wrong otherwise. It seems to me the key for playing time for Joey and AOC is to show they can do other stuff besides shoot.

Hurt is obviously pretty entrenched and could be our leading scorer.

[kAzE]

The thing that encourages me with Baker, and fuels my optimism for him is that he doesn't lack effort on defense. He seems to really care, even in the meaningless games in which he has gotten minutes. You can see him diving for loose balls and taking charges. There's not an issue with Joey where he just stands around and you forget he's out there. He's really trying. He's just a little overzealous sometimes and get caught reaching, bites way too hard on a fake, or helps off his man when he shouldn't be helping.

He'll probably never be a great defender, but once he has a bit more experience and understands where he needs to be on defense, I think his minutes will increase. He has size and is a pretty good athlete, so theoretically, he should be capable of good defense.

[gep]

The thing that encourages me with Baker, and fuels my optimism for him is that he doesn't lack effort on defense. He seems to really care, even in the meaningless games in which he has gotten minutes. You can see him diving for loose balls and taking charges. There's not an issue with Joey where he just stands around and you forget he's out there. He's really trying. He's just a little overzealous sometimes and get caught reaching, bites way too hard on a fake, or helps off his man when he shouldn't be helping.

He'll probably never be a great defender, but once he has a bit more experience and understands where he needs to be on defense, I think his minutes will increase. He has size and is a pretty good athlete, so theoretically, he should be capable of good defense.

My only view of the team so far are the youtube full-game highlights. But from the Fort Valley game, to me, Joey didn't look "bad" on defense... not any worse than most others on the wings. Of course, caveat, I'm not a technical basketball guy at all...

But maybe with more time on the court, and of course practice, he will be sufficient enough to stay on the court and hit those 3's...

[David Bunkley]

The more I think about it, the more I believe that Goldwire plays big minutes this season. I know we've only seen a scrimmage and to exhibition games, but to me he seems to be the returning player that took the biggest step forward this off-season. And we all know that playing good defense is one of the surest ways to find yourself on the court at Duke. I don't know if he breaks the 20 minute mark, but I can definitely see his minutes hovering in the high teens.

#GODUKE

[budwom]

I wish it were that simple. I mean, there's very little doubt (even before yesterday's game) that Hurt, Baker, and O'Connell can shoot. Too many stats and scouting reports would have to be wrong otherwise. It seems to me the key for playing time for Joey and AOC is to show they can do other stuff besides shoot.

Hurt is obviously pretty entrenched and could be our leading scorer.

Well, we've seen plenty of guys who shot well in high school, or can theoretically shoot, who just don't get it done in college games. I'm talking about guys who can take the pressure and produce.

[SkyBrickey]

Tre - 31
Hurt - 26
Carey - 24
Jordan/AOC/Baker/Moore/Stanley/Jack/Javin - 17

:)

[Troublemaker]

Well, we've seen plenty of guys who shot well in high school, or can theoretically shoot, who just don't get it done in college games. I'm talking about guys who can take the pressure and produce.

I don't know that we have. At least *I* can't name plenty off the top of my head. If someone has the stats and the reputation, I'm very comfortable they'll shoot well in college. (Some players have only the rep but not the good shooting stats e.g. Reddish).

In any case, I really wish you were correct in your original post. Unfortunately, I think Coach K knows Joey Baker can shoot in college games but I also don't think it's any sort of guarantee of playing time. (And if so, it's possible Coach K is wrong on this one. Maybe Joey should be force-fed minutes).

[CDu]

I don't know that we have. At least *I* can't name plenty off the top of my head. If someone has the stats and the reputation, I'm very comfortable they'll shoot well in college. (Some players have only the rep but not the good shooting stats e.g. Reddish).

In any case, I really wish you were correct in your original post. Unfortunately, I think Coach K knows Joey Baker can shoot in college games but I also don't think it's any sort of guarantee of playing time. (And if so, it's possible Coach K is wrong on this one. Maybe Joey should be force-fed minutes).

The only one that comes to mind immediately is freshman year Kennard.

[Wahoo2000]

Never too soon. Coach K is a legend, but I'm sure even he'll admit it was a dumb idea to pull that redshirt. Especially if Baker doesn't play much this year.

Semi-shocked that there has not been any antipathy towards this statement. As I recall last year when it happened, there were a surprising number (to me) of those that vigorously defended the move - even AFTER the results were known. Maybe those folks aren't checking in? Or maybe they've backed off that stance.

K is a great, GREAT coach. CERTAINLY in the argument for greatest of all time (with a rather strong argument for it). The idea that you can't critique anything he does, or that he is beyond the ability to make a mistake/error though? Treating players/coaches as infallible gods is one of the uglier sides of homerism/fandom in sports.

[House P]

This can of worms already was opened a bit in the thread on Tre Jones' feature in the Athletic (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?44123-Tre-Jones-article-in-The-Athletic), which included quotes that one could interpret as possibly indicating that maybe this is the prophesied year where Coach K plays a consistent 8-9 man rotation (and also hell freezes over, pigs fly, and... no, no, this is a legitimate topic Scott, focus!).

Nine guys played at least 12 minutes against Kansas.

As far as I can tell, before last night, Duke had played 423 games decided by less than 15 points since the 1997-98 season. Only twice over these 423 games did Duke have 9 guys with at least 12 minutes played (a 4 point wins vs UVA on Jan 13, 2014 and a 4 point loss vs Clemson on March 15, 2008).

Last night's game also marks only the 7th time in 773 games decided by less than 15 points since Coach K arrived where Duke had 9 guys play 12 or more minutes.

I don't know how often Coach K will go with 9 guys for double digit minutes as the season progresses, but early indications suggest that Coach K is likely to go with a "deeper-than-normal" rotation this year.

[Indoor66]

Nine guys played at least 12 minutes against Kansas.

As far as I can tell, before last night, Duke had played 423 games decided by less than 15 points since the 1997-98 season. Only twice over these 423 games did Duke have 9 guys with at least 12 minutes played (a 4 point wins vs UVA on Jan 13, 2014 and a 4 point loss vs Clemson on March 15, 2008).

Last night's game also marks only the 7th time in 773 games decided by less than 15 points since Coach K arrived where Duke had 9 guys play 12 or more minutes.

I don't know how often Coach K will go with 9 guys for double digit minutes as the season progresses, but early indications suggest that Coach K is likely to go with a "deeper-than-normal" rotation this year.

I will guess that 9 will get double digit minutes as long as they earn them by being productive.