MBB: Emotions about the upcoming (2019-2020) season [Archive]

slower

08-03-2019, 08:07 AM

MartyClark

08-03-2019, 08:42 AM

I have to be honest with you.

After the insane hype and the major disappointment of the past 3 seasons, I'm just not psyched up (yet) for this coming year. And maybe that's a good thing. Maybe some of us need diminished expectations to really enjoy the season. Maybe we need to not EXPECT a championship - at least, not to the crazy level that surrounded these previous teams. I hope our guys get a chance to fly (relatively) under the radar, so that we're not totally crushed if they get ousted before the Final Four, and so that we can be wildly ecstatic if they do make it there.

And no, I have not yet watched the Michigan State game. Nor may I ever.

I hear ya. I'm looking forward to the season because, well, it is Duke basketball. I'm still feeling the disappointment of the last two seasons. I think my expectations have been diminished.

OZZIE4DUKE

08-03-2019, 08:59 AM

We enjoyed last season immensely! Watching Zion was so much fun! It was the last game that left us deflated. LGD GTHc!

slower

08-03-2019, 09:14 AM

We enjoyed last season immensely! Watching Zion was so much fun! It was the last game that left us deflated. LGD GTHc!

Thanks for the perspective, Ozzie. You are correct.

TeacherTom

08-03-2019, 10:38 AM

It’s so much fun watching coach, the crazies, and, of course, the team.! We are all extremely fortunate to have such a stellar program with which to be affiliated.

DukeFanSince1990

08-03-2019, 12:14 PM

Been watching Duke for 30 seasons. Only 5 of those it ended happily ever after. It's part of the game. Bring on the new season.

richardjackson199

08-03-2019, 12:37 PM

I have to be honest with you.

After the insane hype and the major disappointment of the past 3 seasons, I'm just not psyched up (yet) for this coming year. And maybe that's a good thing. Maybe some of us need diminished expectations to really enjoy the season. Maybe we need to not EXPECT a championship - at least, not to the crazy level that surrounded these previous teams. I hope our guys get a chance to fly (relatively) under the radar, so that we're not totally crushed if they get ousted before the Final Four, and so that we can be wildly ecstatic if they do make it there.

And no, I have not yet watched the Michigan State game. Nor may I ever.

Don't watch the MSU game. Delete recording.

There is something to be said for flying under the radar. 2015 was all about the Kentucky super team's quest for an undefeated season. Same with the 1991 Runnin Rebs. And on paper our 2011 team looked much better than the 2010 team, until the toe vigil. Of course this isn't always the case, but it happens. I'm also going to try to lower expectations and enjoy the highs of the season, like I did in 99, regardless of the ending. Because the probability is never good to end the season on a win. Can't wait!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

08-03-2019, 12:44 PM

Been watching Duke for 30 seasons. Only 5 of those it ended happily ever after. It's part of the game. Bring on the new season.

Username checks out... Good math.

SouthernDukie

08-03-2019, 12:48 PM

Don't watch the MSU game. Delete recording.

There is something to be said for flying under the radar. 2015 was all about the Kentucky super team's quest for an undefeated season. Same with the 1991 Runnin Rebs. And on paper our 2011 team looked much better than the 2010 team, until the toe vigil. Of course this isn't always the case, but it happens. I'm also going to try to lower expectations and enjoy the highs of the season, like I did in 99, regardless of the ending. Because the probability is never good to end the season on a win. Can't wait!

Yep. '99 was a real kick in the you know what for me. I was so, so sure we were going to win it all. That season was phenomenal and fun as all get out to watch, but the ending just about killed me. Taught me a valuable lesson for sure. Must admit I was close to falling into that same expectations trap again this year, but I kept things in perspective and just enjoyed the heck out of watching Zion and the rest of the team.

Sure, MSU was a big disappointment but I wasn't crushed. I have learned and grown throughout my 4 decades of watching Duke basketball and no longer die a thousand deaths every time they don't cut down the nets. Of course, there are now splinters in the windmills of my mind thanks to Richard Hamilton, so that might have something to do with it.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

08-03-2019, 12:53 PM

Yep. '99 was a real kick in the you know what for me. I was so, so sure we were going to win it all. That season was phenomenal and fun as all get out to watch, but the ending just about killed me. Taught me a valuable lesson for sure. Must admit I was close to falling into that same expectations trap again this year, but I kept things in perspective and just enjoyed the heck out of watching Zion and the rest of the team.

Sure, MSU was a big disappointment but I wasn't crushed. I have learned and grown throughout my 4 decades of watching Duke basketball and no longer die a thousand deaths every time they don't cut down the nets. Of course, there are now splinters in the windmills of my mind thanks to Richard Hamilton, so that might have something to do with it.

There's an element of balance - you win some you didn't expect (2010) and you certainly don't win all the times you feel you ought to (1999). My issue is that on this board and in this era of sports fandom, every loss is greeted as a shattering referendum on the program or sport, rather than "we'll get em next time."
K's mantra of "next play" is something I take to heart. Sure, you want to win every time on the floor. But sometimes ot doesn't work that way. Learn from mistakes, move on, get better.

Troublemaker

08-03-2019, 09:20 PM

Hmm, when I clicked on this thread title, I was hoping for some posts about the team itself, not posts about fan anxiety essentially. But, to continue the conversation, I think y'all shouldn't get too comfortable with lowered expectations. To whatever extent Duke even starts out "low" (probably still preseason top 8, right?), we have a habit of playing really well in November and December in the pre-ACC segment of the season. Remember, the expectations for last season's team weren't that high to start with, and we were actually the underdog in the season opener against Kentucky. This season, I really wouldn't be surprised if Duke earns wins against Kansas in the season opener and @MSU in the ACC-B10 Challenge. In which case Duke likely becomes the #1-ranked team in the country (the horror! :-)

MaxAMillion

08-03-2019, 09:38 PM

gep

08-03-2019, 10:03 PM

I guess I am the opposite. I go into every season expecting a championship... or at least hoping real badly. But like last year, while the Michigan St game was disappointing, the season was just a big blast for me. Starting with the complete blowout of Kentucky, wins over Virginia, Maui even with the loss to Gonzaga, and the ACCT championship, among others, was just a joy. And most all seasons are like that. I recall one season with 11 losses(?). That was one that was a bit harder...

superdave

08-04-2019, 03:44 PM

UrinalCake

08-04-2019, 04:02 PM

Remember, the expectations for last season's team weren't that high to start with, and we were actually the underdog in the season opener against Kentucky.

That Kentucky game completely distorted our entire perspective last season. If you just erased that game and looked at the season as a whole, I think it's hard to say it was a "major disappointment." We were #3 or #4 in the preseason behind Kentucky and Kansas, neither of whom made the final four either. But yeah, once the hype train got rolling it was hard to keep perspective.

Totally agree with others that there is some relief that comes with lower expectations. I hate the fact that some polls still have us ranked #2 or #3. That is just insane and will only add fuel to the critics who love to call us overrated when we inevitably lose. I also like the fact that our players individually have fallen a bit in the rankings. One ACC coach (can't remember which one) spoke in a podcast last year about how hard it is to bring in a player ranked, say, #15 and then when some random mock draft comes out in November that has him out of the lottery, the kid's parents are going berserk asking why he's slipping.

Objectively speaking, we don't have the high-end lottery talent we've had for the past few seasons. We could potentially be a more balanced, deeper, and well-rounded team, and we could get more contributions from veterans. But it remains to be seen whether that development will happen. I worry about our lack of depth at the #1 and the #5, and about our interior defense. But I'm also looking forward to seeing more of a "team" and less isolation of one or two star players.

UrinalCake

08-04-2019, 04:09 PM

I don't go into any season expecting a championship. For one thing, the team seems to have players get injured almost every year that impacts things. Plus one and done scenarios are always a crap shoot.

I agree, I think given the nature of the tournament and of CBB in general, setting the bar at winning a title is just not reasonable. You could have the most talented team every single season for 10 years and never win a title, and it wouldn't be a huge shock. Even with veteran teams, there's so much variability. But I do think that making the final four is a reasonable bar to set as a fan when you have an elite team, at least to the extent that if it doesn't happen you can feel a little disappointed. Which makes the past two seasons so brutal, being that close to a final four and in both cases missing out by an opponent's made three and our missed shot in the final minute.

jimsumner

08-04-2019, 04:24 PM

I still haven't gotten over Bob Verga getting sick in 1966.

ricks68

08-04-2019, 05:32 PM

I haven't either, but then, I was at the game.😡

JasonEvans

08-06-2019, 08:11 AM

Hmm, when I clicked on this thread title, I was hoping for some posts about the team itself, not posts about fan anxiety essentially.

Good observation. Thread title changed to reflect the actual topic.

-Jason "to me, 2018-19 was one of the most exciting seasons ever at Duke... thanks Zion for bringing so much joy to the game" Evans

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

08-06-2019, 09:18 AM

Good observation. Thread title changed to reflect the actual topic.

-Jason "to me, 2018-19 was one of the most exciting seasons ever at Duke... thanks Zion for bringing so much joy to the game" Evans

Agreed. Last season was a very Zen-like experience for me; particularly after Zion's injury against UNC. Enjoy each play, each game, each player. Nothing is guaranteed.

rtnorthrup

08-06-2019, 09:25 AM

thedukelamere

08-06-2019, 09:57 AM

Good observation. Thread title changed to reflect the actual topic.

-Jason "to me, 2018-19 was one of the most exciting seasons ever at Duke... thanks Zion for bringing so much joy to the game" Evans

I think I'm still emotionally exhausted. Between the high of the UK blowout, the lows of MSU and The Shoesplosion, the comeback at Louisville, Cam's dagger, storming back in Maui and falling a shot short... This season isn't about lowered expectations for me, it's more like being Phillip Rivers and having 114 children. There's the ones that ended up as doctors just make you beam with pride and smile every time you think about them ('91, '92, '01, '10, '15), the ones that married someone you don't care for and as a parent you know they didn't maximize their potential ('86, '94, '99, '06, '11, '18, '19), the ones that caused a lot of heartbreak growing up but some of your favorite memories are about special moments with them ('12 Subzero over Zeller, '12 Comeback against State at Cameron, '16 win at Cheats with 5 healthy guys, etc.)...

I can't wait for the season to start and to watch Tre, Jav and Jack teach this team how to play Duke Basketball, JGold and Wendell team up with Stones and form a suffocating defensive lineup, Joey and AOC turn into the Reddick twins, Cassius to have several Sportscenter Top 10 dunks, Matthew hurt the opposition from all over the floor like White Raven 2.0, and for Vernon to go BeastMode in the paint on a nightly basis. We'll question their decision making and shot selection, we'll offer advice and opinions that they will never see or care about, but ultimately we'll love them as much as any of their brethren before them.

HereBeforeCoachK

08-06-2019, 10:04 AM

I don't think people appreciate how minute the difference between losing a one possession game in the elite eight and winning a national championship is. Last season we won a conference championship and we're a whisker away from final four. In truth, that was well within the reasonable expectation of that team given how young we were. As UrinalCake said, the post Kentucky hype got way out of proportion. Talking heads opining about Duke vs. Cavs, Zion should stop playing etc.

There is some truth to that, though I think by the time the NCAA's came around, the Kentucky hype was gone....washed away by Tre's injury, Cam's illness, Zion's FSU injury, Jack's slump and then the "breaking shoe" injury....etc. It may be tough to consider, but a really good case can be made that the team peaked versus UK - in some ways. It certainly peaked relative to the opposition's development in that game.

What's clear now is that Tre was never right after Syracuse 1, and neither was Jack, for different reasons. Thus the team was never really right. Not like they were early. Then the return of Zion was not in time to really develop rhythm going into the NCAAs. You talk about the minute differences that can change everything - and you're right - we were one possession from making the Final Four, and that AFTER all the speed bumps the team hit with injuries.

devilirium

08-06-2019, 10:18 AM

I have to be honest with you.

After the insane hype and the major disappointment of the past 3 seasons, I'm just not psyched up (yet) for this coming year. And maybe that's a good thing. Maybe some of us need diminished expectations to really enjoy the season. Maybe we need to not EXPECT a championship - at least, not to the crazy level that surrounded these previous teams. I hope our guys get a chance to fly (relatively) under the radar, so that we're not totally crushed if they get ousted before the Final Four, and so that we can be wildly ecstatic if they do make it there.

And no, I have not yet watched the Michigan State game. Nor may I ever.

Man, you take these losses hard. I think the Mercer and Lehigh years bordered on that, but two Elite Eights slipping out of our grasp? I just don't consider that as cataclysmic. Losing to Lehigh made me wonder if a Final Four would occur in another 5-6 years.

COYS

08-06-2019, 11:07 AM

The reality is that we've only got a few more years left with Coach K at the helm. I think the program is set up to continue to thrive after K retires, but the odds are very much against Duke ever being as consistently good as we've been since 1986 (!) ever again. For me, that makes it even more important to cherish each moment.

I feel like if the 2019-2020 team lacks preseason hype, it is mostly due to the lack of sure-fire top 3 NBA draft pick players. We've had a ridiculous run of Jabari/Jah/Brandon/Jayson/Harry(if healthy)/Marvin/RJ/Zion/Cam all projected to be elite talents who had the potential to be top picks in the draft. This season lacks such a player. I think Duke will be really good this year, but there isn't a player who captures the imagination the same way Zion did with Instagram Dunks, RJ with his demolition of Team USA, Marvin with his ridiculous youtube highlights, Jayson with his sweet, pro-level moves, etc. However, we also lacked such players in 2010 and 2013 and ended up having pretty dang good seasons. We have a team that is capable of being special, don't get me wrong. But we're also probably not dreaming of seeing Matthew Hurt entering the NBA HOF in 20 years the same way we could see that for some of our other recent stars.

UrinalCake

08-06-2019, 11:30 AM

...it's more like being Phillip Rivers and having 114 children.

I was unaware of this bit of information, so I looked it up and sure enough, Rivers and his wife are expecting their ninth child. I guess he’s been making up for lost time.

SouthernDukie

08-06-2019, 12:38 PM

What's clear now is that Tre was never right after Syracuse 1...

Not to dwell too much on the past, what with this thread being about the future, but I do believe - with all my heart - that this was the most critical moment of the season. Tre was never the same after he got hurt in that game. I don't have any stats to back up my contention, but I feel like he was a better shooter before the injury than after. Yes, yes. I know he was never a good 3-point or long 2-point shooter all season, but I think he was better before rather than after.

If I could change only one moment in the season, that would be it. And while all the talk about variables and lucky/unlucky bounces of the ball always hold true in a one and done tournament like the NCAA's, I sincerely believe we were on our way to winning #6 before that injury to Tre. That injury hurt the team far more than Zion's did, imho.

Steven43

08-06-2019, 12:41 PM

I don't go into any season expecting a championship. For one thing, the team seems to have players get injured almost every year that impacts things. Plus one and done scenarios are always a crap shoot. Sad that 30 win seasons and ACC tournament titles are considered next to nothing. I will say again that people better figure out how to enjoy these last few Coach K seasons. Something tells me that fans will be longing for these types of seasons once he retires.

Why is it “sad” that 30-win seasons are something Duke fans consider to be fairly routine? Duke has one of the best coaches in college basketball, a very good group of assistant coaches, tremendous support from one of the best athletic departments in the country, a huge homecourt advantage, a long-term tradition of winning, and every year has a top 5 recruiting class, and often the very top class. How many other schools can boast of all these things? The answer: NONE.

Steven43

08-06-2019, 01:03 PM

It was not my intent to fixate on the number 30 (of total wins per season); that was just the number MaxAMillion used. But Duke has won 28 games or more in 14 of the past 21 seasons. So in fact it HAS become fairly routine for Duke and Coach K to win at that very high level.

That doesn’t mean Duke fans don’t appreciate it. Not at all. But there are extremely high expectations around here, and I don’t see anything wrong or unrealistic about having those types of expectations.

budwom

08-06-2019, 01:07 PM

I'm going in with precious few expectations, won't be much room for disappointment that way...plus I just happen to think it's an interesting and odd assortment we have this year, haven't a clue as to what will happen.

Kedsy

08-06-2019, 01:50 PM

Tre was never the same after he got hurt in that game. I don't have any stats to back up my contention, but I feel like he was a better shooter before the injury than after. Yes, yes. I know he was never a good 3-point or long 2-point shooter all season, but I think he was better before rather than after.

Not according to his shooting percentage. He shot pretty close to the same from three-point-range before and after that injury: 8 for 28 before (28.6%) and 19 for 75 after (25.3%).

weezie

08-06-2019, 01:52 PM

My emotions towards this upcoming season are gamely optimistic today as I put the stamp on our ticket order envelope.

After a gulp and a sigh while filling out the big old check. :eek:

proelitedota

08-06-2019, 02:06 PM

If Vernon, Hurt, Moore are as competitive as RJ, Zion, and Cam were, we should be as good as last year.

We have upgrades at the 1 and 5.
Potential non-grade at the 3.
Downgrades at the 4 and 2.

So upgrades at the 2 most important positions in college basketball. Downgrade in the least important position 4.

I expect the team to be offensively stronger to make up for the drop in m2m defensive efficiency.

HereBeforeCoachK

08-06-2019, 02:20 PM

Not according to his shooting percentage. He shot pretty close to the same from three-point-range before and after that injury: 8 for 28 before (28.6%) and 19 for 75 after (25.3%).

That's a 12% drop off - during a period where one would typically expect improvement, not a drop off. That said, his play suffered post injury all over, not just shooting. Also, do you have his 2 point shooting stats pre and post injury?

elvis14

08-06-2019, 02:30 PM

We have great players again this season. I EXPECT them to play well and to play an exciting brand of basketball. I HOPE they contend for championships (ACC, NCAA).

This has been discussed on DBR and I've heard it from other fans: the revolving door of players (so many one and done guys) leads one toward apathy. Sure losing to MSU the way we did sucked (constant fouls by MSU and Duke not giving the ball to Zion more) and it still stings but I think for some it's harder to get fired up when Zion/RJ/Cam are gone and we don't get a revenge tour!

Note I'm not saying that I'm apathetic, I'm not. But I will say that some people are less fired up (thus more apathetic). Thank goodness for Tre. Imagine how fired up we would be if Zion stayed one more year! That's what we don't get much anymore. Sure I hope Jav and Jack have good solid years but holy crap another year of Zion (or RJ) would be basketball nirvana!

Once the season starts and games are being played we get fired up almost out of habit. It's a great habit to have!

Steven43

08-06-2019, 02:36 PM

That's a 12% drop off - during a period where one would typically expect improvement, not a drop off. That said, his play suffered post injury all over, not just shooting. Also, do you have his 2 point shooting stats pre and post injury?

I agree with this in a general sense. As I recall Tre had one really hot game from three late in the season. That one game boosted his post-injury 3-point percentage considerably, I would think. Also, his defense didn’t seem as stifling and potent post-injury.

elvis14

08-06-2019, 02:47 PM

I agree with this in a general sense. As I recall Tre had one really hot game from three late in the season. That one game boosted his post-injury 3-point percentage considerably, I would think. Also, his defense didn’t seem as stifling and potent post-injury.

Also as the season went on, more and more teams just double teamed off of Tre leaving him wide open and daring him to take and hit the 3 ball. IMHO, that makes the percentages skewed a bit. Early in the season teams were playing us more straight up but as the season wore on, I think more and more teams started leaving Tre on the defensive end of the floor. I'm also of the opinion that he wasn't quite the same player after that shoulder injury. He's going to be great next season!

Imagine if JJ was just left wide open so guys could double team Zion in the post!!!! (Note that in a few months you won't have to leave this up to your imagination).

rasputin

08-06-2019, 03:31 PM

The 2018-19 team is, I think, my favorite of all of them. And I have been following Duke hoops since, say, Dick DeVenzio.

Of course MSU was a disappointment last year. And 1999. But 1986 was worst for me, because we were losing so many seniors. But we were back in the Final Four two years later, and three, and . . .

miramar

08-06-2019, 03:57 PM

I just want one more basket. Last year we made 1,157 buckets, so we only need an extra 0.086%.

Of course, that basket needs to happen in the Elite Eight because in life timing is everything.

I hope that's not too much to ask. The guys just need to channel their inner Laettner, that's all.

It doesn't even have to be the difficult one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DD2fEEVVMk

jimsumner

08-06-2019, 04:06 PM

cato

08-06-2019, 04:10 PM

bundabergdevil

08-06-2019, 04:20 PM

I look forward to every season. In terms of delivering jump out of my chair and shout levels of excitement and stress, last season was pretty darn exceptional. The 2015 championship run was a lot of fun, the 2010 run a lot of stress. The Rivers shot is still probably the only time I've spread arms and airplane-d around the room. JJ was a joy to watch and I was there for 2001.

Duke's delivered so many wonderful sporting moments and personalities in the past and I have no doubt they will in the future. But boy, I just had so much damn fun last year watching Zion play!

Kedsy

08-06-2019, 05:43 PM

That's a 12% drop off - during a period where one would typically expect improvement, not a drop off. That said, his play suffered post injury all over, not just shooting. Also, do you have his 2 point shooting stats pre and post injury?

If Tre had missed one (1) more of his pre-injury threes, the percentages would have been virtually identical (25.0% before vs. 25.3% after). I understand one made shot comes to 12% in this math problem, but it's still just one shot. I'm not going to do any stats on this, but I'm not convinced we should expect improvement in the latter part of the season when we're playing tough teams almost every game as opposed to 40% cupcakes we play in the early season.

As far as two-point shots, Tre shot 46 for 94 (48.9%) pre-injury and 59 for 122 (48.4%) post-injury. That comes out to half a shot different, so even closer to the same.

UrinalCake

08-06-2019, 06:10 PM

^ nice to see Kedsy is in mid-season form 8-)

SouthernDukie

08-06-2019, 09:14 PM

If Tre had missed one (1) more of his pre-injury threes, the percentages would have been virtually identical (25.0% before vs. 25.3% after). I understand one made shot comes to 12% in this math problem, but it's still just one shot. I'm not going to do any stats on this, but I'm not convinced we should expect improvement in the latter part of the season when we're playing tough teams almost every game as opposed to 40% cupcakes we play in the early season.

As far as two-point shots, Tre shot 46 for 94 (48.9%) pre-injury and 59 for 122 (48.4%) post-injury. That comes out to half a shot different, so even closer to the same.

I know a lot of posters here absolutely despise the eye test versus cold, hard stats. And in many cases I agree with them. But I stand firm that Tre was simply not the same player when he came back from injury, including and especially his shooting. My eyes told me that in no uncertain terms.

AtlDuke72

08-06-2019, 10:09 PM

Steven43

08-06-2019, 10:19 PM

Don't let the facts confuse you!

And what are the “facts”? You think you can measure the value of a player simply by looking at statistics? I don’t know if you feel that way; I’m just asking.

Kedsy

08-06-2019, 10:27 PM

I know a lot of posters here absolutely despise the eye test versus cold, hard stats. And in many cases I agree with them. But I stand firm that Tre was simply not the same player when he came back from injury, including and especially his shooting. My eyes told me that in no uncertain terms.

My own eye test suggested his lateral movement (and thus his defense) wasn't quite the same after the injury. His shooting didn't look any different to me, and the stats back that up.

Maybe his shooting looked worse to you after the injury because he attempted so many more outside shots (and therefore missed so many more outside shots) after the injury -- 1.75 three-attempts per game pre-injury and 3.41 three-attempts per game post-injury. I guess it's possible he shot more threes because he didn't feel as comfortable driving on an injured leg; no way to know that unless he said so (and as far as I know he hasn't).

And what are the “facts”? You think you can measure the value of a player simply by looking at statistics? I don’t know if you feel that way; I’m just asking.

Oh, come on. If someone posits a hypothesis that player X shot worse after a certain date, there are clearly facts that can test that hypothesis. Namely, how well he shot, before and after. If the facts show he did not shoot worse after a certain date, I think you can measure the value of the hypothesis, even if you can't measure the value of the player.

SouthernDukie

08-06-2019, 10:35 PM

My own eye test suggested his lateral movement (and thus his defense) wasn't quite the same after the injury. His shooting didn't look any different to me, and the stats back that up.

Maybe his shooting looked worse to you after the injury because he attempted so many more outside shots (and therefore missed so many more outside shots) after the injury -- 1.75 three-attempts per game pre-injury and 3.41 three-attempts per game post-injury. I guess it's possible he shot more threes because he didn't feel as comfortable driving on an injured leg; no way to know that unless he said so (and as far as I know he hasn't).

There’s nothing doubt his defense suffered after the injury as well. But I also maintain his shooting simply wasn’t the same after the injury, per using my two eyeballs. If you think he was just as strong and effective as a shooter after the injury (using stats alone), so be it. Variety is the spice of life.

SouthernDukie

08-06-2019, 10:36 PM

Don't let the facts confuse you!

Do the facts show he shot better after the injury?

SouthernDukie

08-06-2019, 10:39 PM

Steven43

08-06-2019, 10:51 PM

Oh, come on. If someone posits a hypothesis that player X shot worse after a certain date, there are clearly facts that can test that hypothesis. Namely, how well he shot, before and after. If the facts show he did not shoot worse after a certain date, I think you can measure the value of the hypothesis, even if you can't measure the value of the player.

I was not referring strictly to Tre’s shooting percentage, which, by the way, is a fairly crude measure to determine one’s value as a shooter.

To truly determine value as a shooter you would have to know so much more than just percentage — such as who was guarding him on his shots, how open he was, how important the shots were, etc. — to even begin to get any sort of definitive answers. And anyway, shooting is just one aspect of what some of us were referring to in noting a decline in Tre’s play after his injury.

cato

08-06-2019, 11:35 PM

If Tre had missed one (1) more of his pre-injury threes, the percentages would have been virtually identical (25.0% before vs. 25.3% after). I understand one made shot comes to 12% in this math problem, but it's still just one shot. I'm not going to do any stats on this, but I'm not convinced we should expect improvement in the latter part of the season when we're playing tough teams almost every game as opposed to 40% cupcakes we play in the early season.

As far as two-point shots, Tre shot 46 for 94 (48.9%) pre-injury and 59 for 122 (48.4%) post-injury. That comes out to half a shot different, so even closer to the same.

IIRC, it wasn’t the offensive efficiency in the half court that declined after the injuries to Tre, Cam and Zion, it was the live ball turnovers, leading to off the charts efficiency in transition.

Kedsy

08-07-2019, 12:17 AM

If you think he was just as strong and effective as a shooter after the injury (using stats alone), so be it. Variety is the spice of life.

I wasn't using stats alone. As I said in an earlier post, my eyes disagreed with yours so I checked the stats, which didn't show any significant difference. Has nothing to do with variety, spice, or anything else.

IIRC, it wasn’t the offensive efficiency in the half court that declined after the injuries to Tre, Cam and Zion, it was the live ball turnovers, leading to off the charts efficiency in transition.

Yeah, the thing is that there's no way to tell how much (if any) of the difference in turnovers (or any other stat) was due to the injuries, vs. how much was due to the fact that we played a much tougher schedule in the last 22 games than we did in the first 16 games. You all are assuming without evidence that it was about the injuries, but to my mind it's more likely to be about the other.

cato

08-07-2019, 02:19 AM

Yeah, the thing is that there's no way to tell how much (if any) of the difference in turnovers (or any other stat) was due to the injuries, vs. how much was due to the fact that we played a much tougher schedule in the last 22 games than we did in the first 16 games. You all are assuming without evidence that it was about the injuries, but to my mind it's more likely to be about the other.

It does not sound like we are arguing about evidence, but about interpretation of why it was that Duke stopped turning teams over and scoring in transition. Are you saying it had nothing to do with injuries?

HereBeforeCoachK

08-07-2019, 07:49 AM

IIRC, it wasn’t the offensive efficiency in the half court that declined after the injuries to Tre, Cam and Zion, it was the live ball turnovers, leading to off the charts efficiency in transition.

Agreed. The live ball turnover thing peaked first four minutes (or was it 6 minutes) into Syracuse 1 at Cameron - and was never the same after that. That was the main inflection point of the season. You could see it, you could sense it, you could feel it. Tre was never the same, nor was the D. Jack White was never the same, and his launching of so many three pointers in that one game had to do with Tre and Cam being sidelined unexpectedly. And of course, it didn't help that Zion had his shoe explosion and that Cam had various issues later either.

My hunch is this team, with just normal luck on injuries, etc, was far far superior to any other team in the country. That they had so many problems, and yet were only one hoop from the Final Four, would lend credibility to that argument.

Wander

08-07-2019, 08:16 AM

I know this is not completely rational, but having the next Lebron James on our team not getting a shot in the final minute of a one possession game was a specific characteristic of the loss that totally drained me (especially since the same thing happened in the one other game we lost while healthy). Somehow I would have been more emotionally accepting of the loss if we had Zion make an attempt at a score. Sort of in the vein of "hey, we weren't perfect, but we tried our best, what can you do?" Now it feels too "what if".

I'm hyped for the season to start but not as expecting of a Final Four. Maybe that's better.

SouthernDukie

08-07-2019, 10:53 AM

Agreed. The live ball turnover thing peaked first four minutes (or was it 6 minutes) into Syracuse 1 at Cameron - and was never the same after that. That was the main inflection point of the season. You could see it, you could sense it, you could feel it. Tre was never the same, nor was the D. Jack White was never the same, and his launching of so many three pointers in that one game had to do with Tre and Cam being sidelined unexpectedly. And of course, it didn't help that Zion had his shoe explosion and that Cam had various issues later either.

My hunch is this team, with just normal luck on injuries, etc, was far far superior to any other team in the country. That they had so many problems, and yet were only one hoop from the Final Four, would lend credibility to that argument.

Bingo. That summarizes the point I was trying to make perfectly. And Tre was the focal point.

Kedsy

08-07-2019, 11:14 AM

It does not sound like we are arguing about evidence, but about interpretation of why it was that Duke stopped turning teams over and scoring in transition. Are you saying it had nothing to do with injuries?

I'm saying I don't know how much (if any) of the difference was caused by injuries. And neither does anybody else.

HereBeforeCoachK

08-07-2019, 03:51 PM

I'm saying I don't know how much (if any) of the difference was caused by injuries. And neither does anybody else.

Respectfully, regarding turnovers, which was the topic of that other poster, with Tre out of the line up versus in the line up, I would think it could indeed be measured to some degree. Even when he returned, you can still make a very reasonable assumption about the difference caused by injuries. The fact that no one knows specifically doesn't mean you can't know generally. I appreciate metrics, but do not need them to tell me Duke was never quite the same after the first few minutes against Cuse at Cameron.

cato

08-07-2019, 04:00 PM

I'm saying I don't know how much (if any) of the difference was caused by injuries. And neither does anybody else.

If any? Tre Jones, the point of the spear on D, had hip and hernia surgeries after the season. I think it is safe to say that his injuries impacted Duke’s D. How much? I agree that is unknowable.

Truth&Justise

08-07-2019, 04:47 PM

golfinesquire

08-07-2019, 04:59 PM

I'm with Kedsy here -- he's usually right, and no reason to believe he's not right here.

Someone made an argument that Tre's shooting dropped off after his injury, and Kedys came through with stats showing that wasn't the case. So folks pivoted, saying instead it must be that Tre's defense suffered after the injury. Kedsy turned around and explained there's no clear evidence showing that any decline in team defense was due to Tre's injury (or any individual decline in defense), as opposed to the competition getting better as the season went on.

Kedsy always brings receipts. He has the stats to back up what he's saying, and rarely goes beyond what he has evidence for.

He's sometimes wrong. You might be able to supply evidence--clips from games, quotes from players, analysis from other sources, etc.--that shows your explanation is better than his, and some phenomenon not captured by the currently available stats is at play.

But, in general, when deciding between the person with evidence and the person who says "just trust me, it's what I saw/felt/believe," I'm going with the person with evidence. And so far Kedsy has brought the evidence.

Keep fighting the good fight.

(All of this was in lieu of my ability to spork Kedsy right now)

I think missing those games stunted Tre's development a bit to the point that other teams were slacking off him and daring him to shoot. Had he not gotten hurt, he might have had time to make adjustments to his shooting to make other teams pay for slacking off him. Also, as a result of his team off, RJ become more of the primary handler and that also changed the team's dynamic. Add in the time without Zion and Cam and Jack's nose dive, it was not surprising that they could not get to the FF. Still and all, it really was a fun season.

elvis14

08-07-2019, 05:03 PM

My question is: do the shooting statistics show take into account unguarded shots? In the beginning of the season teams played us more straight up. As the season went on, teams started leaving Tre to go double RJ and Zion. Since he was giving wide open shots his shooting percentage should have gone up considerably as the season went on (assuming the assumption that the shoulder injury had no effect on his shooting). If the stats to take into effect unguarded shots vs guarded shots then it's true that his shooting didn't get worse....

cato

08-07-2019, 05:04 PM

So folks pivoted, saying instead it must be that Tre's defense suffered after the injury. Kedsy turned around and explained there's no clear evidence showing that any decline in team defense was due to Tre's injury (or any individual decline in defense), as opposed to the competition getting better as the season went on.

Kedsy always brings receipts. He has the stats to back up what he's saying, and rarely goes beyond what he has evidence for.

No one has presented any “evidence” that Duke’s decline in forcing turnovers was caused by facing better competition (or exposure). There are no receipts. Just opinions.

Steven43

08-07-2019, 05:09 PM

Kedsy always brings receipts. He has the stats to back up what he's saying, and rarely goes beyond what he has evidence for.

Stats often provide only a partial glimpse into the truth as far as sports goes. Simply looking at box score stats and thinking you are getting definitive answers to player value is just silly. I’m not saying anyone here is doing that and I’m not singling anyone out.

SkyBrickey

08-07-2019, 05:36 PM

Better 3 point shooting and floor spacing. Senior big man leadership. An excellent and experienced point guard. Ten players competing and worthy of playing time.

I’m definitely expecting a Final Four just like I do every preseason. Too old to change now.

SouthernDukie

08-07-2019, 08:52 PM

I'm with Kedsy here -- he's usually right, and no reason to believe he's not right here.

Someone made an argument that Tre's shooting dropped off after his injury, and Kedys came through with stats showing that wasn't the case. So folks pivoted, saying instead it must be that Tre's defense suffered after the injury. Kedsy turned around and explained there's no clear evidence showing that any decline in team defense was due to Tre's injury (or any individual decline in defense), as opposed to the competition getting better as the season went on.

Kedsy always brings receipts. He has the stats to back up what he's saying, and rarely goes beyond what he has evidence for.

He's sometimes wrong. You might be able to supply evidence--clips from games, quotes from players, analysis from other sources, etc.--that shows your explanation is better than his, and some phenomenon not captured by the currently available stats is at play.

But, in general, when deciding between the person with evidence and the person who says "just trust me, it's what I saw/felt/believe," I'm going with the person with evidence. And so far Kedsy has brought the evidence.

Keep fighting the good fight.

(All of this was in lieu of my ability to spork Kedsy right now)

I beg to differ. I said Tre's three and two point shooting suffered, and Kedsy provided evidence that I was right (even though the percentage was close). And as others have mentioned, without doing a lot more digging beyond box score stats, there's no way to know just how many more 3's Tre got that were wide open vs closely guarded. And no one has been able to disprove my point about his 2 point shooting. I remember him hitting those floaters in the lane with much more regularity pre-injury compared to post-injury. But whatever. No one is going to convince anyone else - what else is new here.

Also disagree about pivoting to defense. Just because I didn't bring it up initially doesn't mean I didn't also notice a drop off there from Tre. And again, this is all perfectly understandable after an injury like that. It is what it is. But there was no pivot to cover up another point. At least not with me. That dog just won't hunt.

UrinalCake

08-07-2019, 09:30 PM

I thought the team's defense got worse as the season went on as well. Hard to know how much was due to increased level of competition and other teams having the scouting report on us. Also in the post-season the pace tends to slow down as teams protect the ball better. Our lineup absolutely feasted off live-ball turnovers as we had the two best transition finishers in the country, but we stopped creating as many turnovers as the season progressed. At least that's how it felt to me, perhaps Kedsy or someone else could provide numbers to disprove what I think I saw.

Tre was still an excellent one-on-one defender, he held guys like Shamorie Ponds from St. John's and the little dude from Miami to terrible shooting performances. But we didn't seem to have the same aggressiveness on D that we showed early on, especially in big games like Kentucky and Texas Tech. (That TT game was one of the most underrated games of the season, we beat an incredible team after falling way behind and it was kind of Jack White's coming out party). Tre's injury in the first Syracuse game felt like a turning point, but it might have just been coincidental that the schedule got more real after that.

SouthernDukie

08-07-2019, 09:40 PM

Tre's injury in the first Syracuse game felt like a turning point, but it might have just been coincidental that the schedule got more real after that.

Does it have to be either/or? Can’t it be both/and?

Steven43

08-07-2019, 09:44 PM

Tre's injury in the first Syracuse game felt like a turning point, but it might have just been coincidental that the schedule got more real after that.

How much more real could the schedule have gotten than Kentucky, Auburn, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, and Florida State?

Furniture

08-08-2019, 12:29 AM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=lbuQvklygto

This is a must watch.....

gep

08-08-2019, 12:43 AM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=lbuQvklygto

This is a must watch....

That was just AWESOME!!!! Especially Jon and his daughter.

p.s. the basketball stuff was cool too.:cool:

brevity

08-08-2019, 12:53 AM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=lbuQvklygto

This is a must watch...

That was just AWESOME!!!! Especially Jon and his daughter.

p.s. the basketball stuff was cool too.:cool:

Agreed. Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight against the onslaught of amateur coroners who have ruined this thread.

I didn't even know BabyScheyerFace was a thing until now.

HereBeforeCoachK

08-08-2019, 07:17 AM

If any? Tre Jones, the point of the spear on D, had hip and hernia surgeries after the season. I think it is safe to say that his injuries impacted Duke’s D.

I hope you have some stats to back that up, or maybe even a receipt......otherwise, we can't know that.....(/s)

SouthernDukie

08-08-2019, 07:52 AM

Agreed. Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight against the onslaught of amateur coroners who have ruined this thread.

Amateur?!!! I’ll have you know I watched Quincy every week when it aired in the 70’s. ;)

clinresga

08-08-2019, 09:17 AM

Every time a Duke season ends in the NCAAT I chide myself for my emotional over-investment.

Never again, say I.

For about three days. Then I start thinking about next season's rotations.

After 50-some years I'm pretty sure it's genetically encoded.

Enjoy every sandwich, as Warren Zevon said. But also expect a Final Four.

Jim: you've been doing this even longer than I, but in 50 years, I know there have been seasons where even you did not expect a Final Four. These young folk here may have never had that experience, but my stint at Duke, '77-'84, included what is still my favorite season of all, the '82-'83 team. Coming off the previous 10-17 record, there were no FF expectations. And, the 11-17 record in K's third year met those low expectations. But the silver lining was that I could revel in every win, but also walk away from a loss without the subsequent days of depression and angst that I now suffer with our outsized expectations.

Even when we were getting destroyed, like by UVa at the ACCT, you could still enjoy watching Danny Meagher dunk, or Mike Tissaw mow down an opposing player. Or Johnny Dawkins do everything. Kind of a life lesson: treasure the victories and don't take the losses too seriously. So, rest easy all, even if we hit a post-K stretch where we don't contend every year for a Natty, there is still much joy to be found in watching Duke basketball :o

jimsumner

08-08-2019, 11:48 AM

Jim: you've been doing this even longer than I, but in 50 years, I know there have been seasons where even you did not expect a Final Four. These young folk here may have never had that experience, but my stint at Duke, '77-'84, included what is still my favorite season of all, the '82-'83 team. Coming off the previous 10-17 record, there were no FF expectations. And, the 11-17 record in K's third year met those low expectations. But the silver lining was that I could revel in every win, but also walk away from a loss without the subsequent days of depression and angst that I now suffer with our outsized expectations.

Even when we were getting destroyed, like by UVa at the ACCT, you could still enjoy watching Danny Meagher dunk, or Mike Tissaw mow down an opposing player. Or Johnny Dawkins do everything. Kind of a life lesson: treasure the victories and don't take the losses too seriously. So, rest easy all, even if we hit a post-K stretch where we don't contend every year for a Natty, there is still much joy to be found in watching Duke basketball :o

The last time the world under-estimated a Mike-Krzyzewski coached team was 1987. That said, I didn't go into every season with Great Expectations. 2007 for example. No plausible case could be made going into the season for that team making a deep March run. 1996, K-'s comeback year, also fits that narrative. But those are the only two seasons since 1987 that I thought Duke might be overmatched going into the season.

Steven43

08-08-2019, 02:32 PM

Agreed. Thanks for continuing to fight the good fight against the onslaught of amateur coroners who have ruined this thread.

I didn't even know BabyScheyerFace was a thing until now.

Nice to know that a much wiser man than the rest of us is here to judge his fellow posters and also to determine what should or shouldn’t be written in a particular thread.

brevity

08-08-2019, 02:50 PM

wsb3

08-08-2019, 05:25 PM

The last time the world under-estimated a Mike-Krzyzewski coached team was 1987. That said, I didn't go into every season with Great Expectations. 2007 for example. No plausible case could be made going into the season for that team making a deep March run. 1996, K-'s comeback year, also fits that narrative. But those are the only two seasons since 1987 that I thought Duke might be overmatched going into the season.

And that 87 Team is one of my favorite. We were going to fall from that painful NC loss to the bottom of the conference..

Kedsy

08-08-2019, 06:29 PM

I beg to differ. I said Tre's three and two point shooting suffered, and Kedsy provided evidence that I was right (even though the percentage was close).

I wasn't going to jump back into this, but here I am. The evidence I provided in NO way supported your statement that Tre's shooting suffered after the injury. I haven't run a full statistical analysis, but given the sample sizes involved, Tre's shooting was virtually identical before and after the injury. It did not suffer at all. That evidence does not suggest you were right. Period.

And as others have mentioned, without doing a lot more digging beyond box score stats, there's no way to know just how many more 3's Tre got that were wide open vs closely guarded.

Here's the thing about this one, does anybody remember Tre taking closely guarded shots before the injury? My recollection is he only took open shots, before and after. The fact that nobody guarded him beyond the three-point line is undoubtedly why he attempted almost twice as many threes per game after the injury than before. But unless someone can show me evidence that before the injury he took a significant percentage of closely guarded shots, I don't think the "they stopped guarding him" argument would have affected his success percentages in any significant way.

And no one has been able to disprove my point about his 2 point shooting.

I don't recall what your point was, but Tre's two-point percentages were virtually identical before and after his injury.

I remember him hitting those floaters in the lane with much more regularity pre-injury compared to post-injury.

I don't have these stats available now, but at some point mid-season I checked his two-point jumper percentage (which would probably include a fair percentage of floaters in the lane), and it was much worse than I thought it would be. Less than 30%, if I remember correctly, which I'm pretty sure I do.

Also disagree about pivoting to defense. Just because I didn't bring it up initially doesn't mean I didn't also notice a drop off there from Tre. And again, this is all perfectly understandable after an injury like that. It is what it is. But there was no pivot to cover up another point. At least not with me. That dog just won't hunt.

My eyes also told me that Tre's defense was not quite as good post-injury. The problem is it's so difficult to assess how much that affected our team defense. It's clear our forced turnover percentage decreased, starting with that Syracuse game, and I'm sure some of that decrease was due to injuries, but when I say that I mean key defenders missing games. Tre missed three, Cam missed two, Zion missed six, Marques missed three. With all those missed games, it's really hard to pin the problem on Tre playing post-injury. Especially since our competition was so much better in the latter part of the season vs. the early season. And by the time the post-season rolled around and we had two major turnover clunkers (UNC in the ACCT and Mich St in the NCAAT), Tre had been back on the court for two months. So sure, maybe Tre not being fully healthy (assuming he wasn't mostly healthy) contributed to our lack of forced turnovers, but there's no reason to believe it was a major contributor, compared to other factors.

SouthernDukie

08-09-2019, 11:16 AM

My eyes also told me that Tre's defense was not quite as good post-injury. The problem is it's so difficult to assess how much that affected our team defense. It's clear our forced turnover percentage decreased, starting with that Syracuse game, and I'm sure some of that decrease was due to injuries, but when I say that I mean key defenders missing games.

Thanks, Kedsy. I'll close down my end of this by stating that all I was doing initially is responding to the thought that Tre's injury was, as opposed to the other injuries and issues, the defining moment of the season. 4 minutes into that Syracuse game I saw us as the best team in the nation - hands down. Our defense, led by Tre's incredible ball pressure, was as good as I had seen in quite some time. We were clicking on all cylinders, to use an old cliche (sorry, can't figure the code for the accent over the "e"). And after that injury we never returned to normal. I did emphasize his O, especially his shooting, when I should have also emphasized his D. My bad for that.

But the bottom line of my initial post was that - to me - this was the moment of the season when we took a step back that we never recovered from. And there's no blame on Tre for this. I hope you didn't read that into my posts because nothing could be further from the truth. Injuries are part of the game. It is what it is. But there was certainly no desire on my end to get into a long debate about all this. Then again I guess that's what DBR is all about. :D

Switching gears and getting on to next season: I'm very optimistic. With Tre back I believe we will have an very good season and I don't see why expectations need to be subdued. I look forward to another fun year rooting for my Blue Devils!

Steven43

08-09-2019, 11:38 AM

But there was certainly no desire on my end to get into a long debate about all this. Then again I guess that's what DBR is all about.

Of course that’s what it’s all about. And don’t ever think otherwise.

jimsumner

08-09-2019, 11:53 AM

Of course that’s what it’s all about. And don’t ever think otherwise.

I thought the Hokey Pokey was what it's all about.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

08-09-2019, 12:04 PM

I thought the Hokey Pokey was what it's all about.

Now is not the time to discuss Hokey Pokey control.

roywhite

08-09-2019, 12:44 PM

If you want to get a look at Tre's current health and conditioning, check out the video of his workout with Jon Scheyer posted in the "Duke 19-20 Team Summer workouts" thread.

HereBeforeCoachK

08-09-2019, 01:19 PM

But the bottom line of my initial post was that - to me - this was the moment of the season when we took a step back that we never recovered from. And there's no blame on Tre for this. I hope you didn't read that into my posts because nothing could be further from the truth. Injuries are part of the game. It is what it is.

That is the bottom line, receipt or no receipt. A clear, undeniable and red flashing light inflection point. Not the only inflection point...there were other ups and downs of course - but that was THE point of no return.

Indoor66

08-09-2019, 03:20 PM

Now is not the time to discuss Hokey Pokey control.

You got stats on that or do we have to log on to KenPom?

UrinalCake

08-09-2019, 05:22 PM

If you want to get a look at Tre's current health and conditioning, check out the video of his workout with Jon Scheyer posted in the "Duke 19-20 Team Summer workouts" thread.

I enjoyed that video, but it didn’t tell me much about Tre’s health and certainly nothing about his conditioning. He is capable of doing individual drills and dribbling with both hands. But is he cleared for full contact? Can he scrimmage with the team?

roywhite

08-09-2019, 09:09 PM

I enjoyed that video, but it didn’t tell me much about Tre’s health and certainly nothing about his conditioning. He is capable of doing individual drills and dribbling with both hands. But is he cleared for full contact? Can he scrimmage with the team?

Tre passed the eye test for me. And I liked the comments of Jon Scheyer:

"He's looking great...he's gotten healthy...he's more athletic... he's gotten better...watch out for Tre Jones"

weezie

08-09-2019, 09:26 PM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=lbuQvklygto

This is a must watch....

One more time...

Watch out for Jon Scheyer.

UrinalCake

08-10-2019, 07:50 AM

Tre passed the eye test for me. And I liked the comments of Jon Scheyer:

Really looking forward to seeing Tre this year. It’s been forever since we’ve had an incumbent starting point guard, to the extent that many of us barely remember what it’s like to have a coach on the floor who isn’t learning everything for the first time. He’ll have the keys to the team and we’ll go as far as he takes us.

Kedsy

08-10-2019, 08:22 AM

Really looking forward to seeing Tre this year. It’s been forever since we’ve had an incumbent starting point guard, to the extent that many of us barely remember what it’s like to have a coach on the floor who isn’t learning everything for the first time. He’ll have the keys to the team and we’ll go as far as he takes us.

I agree with you about Tre, I think we’re going to see a much better player than we last year (and he was really good last year, other than his shooting).

But it may be worth noting that the last four times we went into a season with an incumbent starting point guard were 2013-14, 2008-09, 2007-08, and 2006-07. Not exactly a litany of NCAA tournament success.

wsb3

08-10-2019, 09:11 AM

But it may be worth noting that the last four times we went into a season with an incumbent starting point guard were 2013-14, 2008-09, 2007-08, and 2006-07. Not exactly a litany of NCAA tournament success.

Well... just when I was feeling good Kedsy. Dang...

johnb

08-10-2019, 09:26 AM

I’d say Tre’s injury was the 3rd most important.

#2. Zion’s absence meant the team didn’t get the reps to seamlessly include a unique player in a half court offense. Before Texas Tech, it didn’t matter bc he was so good, but later teams figured out our offense. No one could neutralize him completely, but teams figured ways to mitigate in crunch time.

#1. One could argue that Cam’s lingering leg injury prevented him from being one of the very best shooters in college. If his outside shot had been falling, and he’d been able to play to the form that makes pro scouts drool, we wouldn’t be talking Tre Jones jumpshot—we’d be worrying about the likelihood of a repeat.

AtlDuke72

08-10-2019, 09:41 AM

MarkD83

08-10-2019, 09:49 AM

I must admit I have not read the entire thread...too busy with golf, hiking, staying cool and enjoying the summer.

So my thoughts...

We often get confused with goals, expectations and accomplishments when looking at each season.

Goals are always the same for Duke basketball ...
1) win the National Championship,
2) play in the Final 4 (can't meet the first goal without this goal),
3) play in the Elite 8 (can't meet the other two goals without this),
4) get a Number 1 seed (this helps make the first 3 goals easier to achieve),
5) win the ACC tournament (this helps to achieve goal 4)
6) win the ACC regular season (this helps to achieve goal 4 and 5)
7) Place in the top 4 of the ACC (this gives several byes in the ACC tournament that makes 4 and 5 easier to achieve
8) Beat UNC everytime we play them (this might actually be a more important goal than 4, 5, 6 or 7)
9) win all of the non-conference regular season games (this helps with goal 4)
10) win every game that is played (this helps with all other goals)

These are tangible items that are analytical, measurable and unemotional.

Goals such as getting better every day; improving team defense; improving FT percentage etc are probably on each player's and the team's list of goals but hard for us to exactly know so hard for us to measure.

These are NOT accomplishments until they are achieved.

What gets our emotions involved is when we EXPECT these goals. We are elated when we don't expect a team to meet one of these goals and they accomplish something unexpected. We are also disappointed (emotional response) when we make a judgement of what we think the team can achieve and they don't meet that goal. Unfortunately we change our judgment as each season progresses.

I did read in this thread that our expectations of 2018-19 changed once Duke beat Ky. We failed to account for the fact that the team relied on talented freshman and one injury or two could derail meeting some of the goals.

So for this year try an experiment that I have tried ever since 2015. I emotionally want every team to achieve all 10 goals. However, I write down what would make me happy (emotional expectations) before the season begins. In fact right now put that list on a piece of paper and see what happens at the end of the season.

So here are my 2019-20 expectations.

1. Win the ACC regular season (this would also cover finishing in the top 4)
2. Have not seen the complete non-conference schedule but win all non-conference regular season games
3. Beat UNC everytime we play them (this is always on my list even if it is 1994-95)
4. Make the Elite 8

Native

08-10-2019, 10:35 AM

One more time...

Watch out for Jon Scheyer.

Not to analogize too much with the baby blues, but I really think he'll be the Roy to K's Dean when all is said and done.

And if Tre gets a jumper even like Tyus, it's game over.

Steven43

08-10-2019, 02:41 PM

I must admit I have not read the entire thread...too busy with golf, hiking, staying cool and enjoying the summer.
Sounds like you have a pretty good thing going on. Why would you kill it by joining back up with us?

cato

08-10-2019, 03:05 PM

I agree with you about Tre, I think we’re going to see a much better player than we last year (and he was really good last year, other than his shooting).

But it may be worth noting that the last four times we went into a season with an incumbent starting point guard were 2013-14, 2008-09, 2007-08, and 2006-07. Not exactly a litany of NCAA tournament success.

Interesting that we also returned the starting point guard in 2014-2015, although Cook of course moved over to the 2 and Tyus took over at the 1.

jimsumner

08-10-2019, 03:11 PM

I agree with you about Tre, I think we’re going to see a much better player than we last year (and he was really good last year, other than his shooting).

But it may be worth noting that the last four times we went into a season with an incumbent starting point guard were 2013-14, 2008-09, 2007-08, and 2006-07. Not exactly a litany of NCAA tournament success.

Jon Scheyer took over as starting point-guard midway through the 2008-'09 season and played well enough down the stretch to win the Case Award after leading Duke to the 2009 ACC Tournament title. Scheyer returned as starting point guard for the 2009-10 team, which litanied up just fine.

HereBeforeCoachK

08-10-2019, 03:17 PM

Those pesky facts keep ruining things!

Well, in your context, you were referring to metrics or stats. What's the saying?
There are lies, damned lies, and then there are statistics.

So like all universal cliches, that is not universally true. It is however true enough to cause pause....

rsvman

08-10-2019, 04:02 PM

I agree with you about Tre, I think we’re going to see a much better player than we last year (and he was really good last year, other than his shooting).

But it may be worth noting that the last four times we went into a season with an incumbent starting point guard were 2013-14, 2008-09, 2007-08, and 2006-07. Not exactly a litany of NCAA tournament success.

To be fair, though, aren't three of those Greg Paulus? So maybe they are redundant predictors?

HereBeforeCoachK

08-10-2019, 10:18 PM

To be fair, though, aren't three of those Greg Paulus? So maybe they are redundant predictors?

Yep, Paulus as a soph, junior and senior...

MarkD83

08-11-2019, 11:50 AM

Sounds like you have a pretty good thing going on. Why would you kill it by joining back up with us?

Its about time for football season and this is always the best place for bball recruiting news.

Troublemaker

08-13-2019, 03:11 PM

Not to post about the rotation or anything, but I will be fascinated to see who gets minutes at 2/3/4 spots. Lots of wing depth.

Yup, will be interesting for sure. I know Alex is considered the favorite to start around here, but I have a suspicion that one of the seniors (and two-time captains?) will get in there. Which means for the second consecutive season, we're going to be huge on the wings. Tre [1], Wendell [2], Matthew [3/4], either Jack [3/4] or Javin[4/5], and last but not least Vernon[5].

Tre passed the eye test for me. And I liked the comments of Jon Scheyer:

"He's looking great...he's gotten healthy...he's more athletic... he's gotten better...watch out for Tre Jones"

Really looking forward to seeing Tre this year. It’s been forever since we’ve had an incumbent starting point guard, to the extent that many of us barely remember what it’s like to have a coach on the floor who isn’t learning everything for the first time. He’ll have the keys to the team and we’ll go as far as he takes us.

Yeah, re: excitement for next season, we wasted a lot of time last season discussing whether Tre would be back for us *not* to be excited after he confirmed a sophomore season.

Not to analogize too much with the baby blues, but I really think he'll be the Roy to K's Dean when all is said and done.

And if Tre gets a jumper even like Tyus, it's game over.

If Tre has the ball in his hands as much as Coach K has hinted at (his comments about wanting to see Tre average a double-double), it's even more important that all the other players on the team can shoot. Tre can penetrate and dime them up when the defense collapses. Or if the defense doesn't, Tre can use his midrange game and (hopefully) finishing ability to score.

bundabergdevil

08-13-2019, 05:37 PM

Yep, Paulus as a soph, junior and senior...

That got me wondering what Paulus is up to these days. He's no longer with OSU. Recently landed an assistant coaching gig at Niagara University (https://buckeyeswire.usatoday.com/2019/05/14/former-ohio-state-coach-greg-paulus-lands-assistant-coaching-job-at-niagara/).

MartyClark

08-13-2019, 05:42 PM

That got me wondering what Paulus is up to these days. He's no longer with OSU. Recently landed an assistant coaching gig at Niagara University (https://buckeyeswire.usatoday.com/2019/05/14/former-ohio-state-coach-greg-paulus-lands-assistant-coaching-job-at-niagara/).

I love Greg Paulus. He gave his all for Duke. He just didn't have the quickness to succeed at point guard. I wish him the best.

I wonder how he views his years at Duke. Fairly good start and a rapid decline. I hope he had a good experience and looks back on his coach, his teammates and his University with some degree of affection

sagegrouse

08-13-2019, 05:51 PM

I love Greg Paulus. He gave his all for Duke. He just didn't have the quickness to succeed at point guard. I wish him the best.

I wonder how he views his years at Duke. Fairly good start and a rapid decline. I hope he had a good experience and looks back on his coach, his teammates and his University with some degree of affection

Let's also remember that Greg did a graduate year at Syracuse -- in FOOTBALL. He started most of the season, threw for over 2,000 yards and led the Big East in completion percentage.

bundabergdevil

08-13-2019, 06:10 PM

Let's also remember that Greg did a graduate year at Syracuse -- in FOOTBALL. He started most of the season, threw for over 2,000 yards and led the Big East in completion percentage.

Yeah, he was (assuming still is) a heck of an athlete. It's an amazing accomplishment. He played arguably the most prestigious position in college basketball (Duke PG) then played arguably toughest position in all of team sports (QB)...and did both well. That's amazing. I do wonder if he has any regrets about opting for basketball versus football. IIRC, his pro potential was higher for football. It would be interesting to hear his reflections.

roywhite

08-20-2019, 12:17 PM

Here is a summer treat as we look forward to the 2019-20 season. All-time Duke dunks, recently updated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvAHgUdrJVc

HereBeforeCoachK

08-20-2019, 12:22 PM

Here is a summer treat as we look forward to the 2019-20 season. All-time Duke dunks, recently updated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvAHgUdrJVc

Love watching that....and watching it, I'm struck that Gene's dunk over Ralph may be the most amazing....struck that Gerald H had so many amazing dunks - while Phil Henderson's over Alonzo was maybe the most important - a turning point for Duke (up) and for Georgetown (down). And then of course, well, um, ZION!!!

chrishoke

08-20-2019, 12:33 PM

Here is a summer treat as we look forward to the 2019-20 season. All-time Duke dunks, recently updated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvAHgUdrJVc

WOW. Watching that - what sticks out to me is just how great Gerald Henderson was.

roywhite

08-20-2019, 02:13 PM

WOW. Watching that - what sticks out to me is just how great Gerald Henderson was.

Yes, agree with that; I was frankly surprised at how many great dunks of Henderson there were. And another thing that stood out for me...that in nearly any other year, RJ Barrett would be considered the best dunker on the team. :)

whereinthehellami

08-22-2019, 10:27 AM

It looks like Jones (https://www.nbadraft.net/players/tre-jones), Hurt (https://www.nbadraft.net/players/matthew-hurt), Carey (https://www.nbadraft.net/players/vernon-carey) had their NBADraft.net player evaluations updated recently. Nothing too noteworthy but it might be interesting to those jonesing for some Duke basketball.

Truth&Justise

08-22-2019, 11:19 AM

flyingdutchdevil

08-22-2019, 11:39 AM

The comparison of Matthew Hurt to Kyle Singler seems pretty lazy.

Agreed. Ryan Kelly makes a lot more sense ;)

UrinalCake

08-22-2019, 12:15 PM

Singler as a comp for Hurt - great for college, not so great for the pros. We know Hurt can shoot but if he has Singler’s toughness inside then he’ll be a stud for us.

MChambers

08-22-2019, 12:24 PM

Agreed. Ryan Kelly makes a lot more sense ;)
Should be Alarie!

whereinthehellami

08-22-2019, 01:30 PM

The main concerns with Hurt are going to be strength and defense. It sounds like he is a willing defender but has issues with quickness, especially laterally.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15

08-22-2019, 03:41 PM

Should be Alarie!

Horvath!

(Am I doing it right?)

mattyoung18

08-22-2019, 04:11 PM

There are some questions for this season.I do predict we will shoot better than last years team.Especially from 3.Crossing my fingers.Im super excited we got another season of Tre Jones.

Kedsy

08-22-2019, 04:26 PM

I do predict we will shoot better than last years team.

Last year’s team was (by far) Duke’s worst 3-point shooting team ever (since they invented the 3-point shot, anyway). So I sure hope this year’s team shoots better.

dukelifer

08-22-2019, 04:33 PM

Last year’s team was (by far) Duke’s worst 3-point shooting team ever (since they invented the 3-point shot, anyway). So I sure hope this year’s team shoots better.

We have Joey Baker. I heard the kid can really stroke it ;)

stedge

08-22-2019, 04:44 PM

I am always excited for basketball season.

And i like going to soccer games, too

Go Duke.

Now back to the thread.

lotusland

08-22-2019, 09:20 PM

We have Joey Baker. I heard the kid can really stroke it ;)

Yeah it’s only too bad we didn’t have Joey Buckets available last year. If only we could have convinced him to skip his senior yr and matriculate a year early...

NSDukeFan

08-23-2019, 07:57 AM

Yeah it’s only too bad we didn’t have Joey Buckets available last year. If only we could have convinced him to skip his senior yr and matriculate a year early...

Definitely could have used some shooting last season. 😀

Troublemaker

08-23-2019, 08:00 AM

The main concerns with Hurt are going to be strength and defense.

Strength probably, but we'll see if defense is a weakness for Matthew.

I've scouted him as a quick-reacting, good defender. Now I could be wrong obviously but here are my series of posts about this anyway in case you're interested (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43717-Welcome-to-Duke-Matthew-Hurt!/page4).

UrinalCake

08-23-2019, 09:09 AM

I hope his strength is not a weakness.

Reddevil

08-23-2019, 11:32 AM

I am excited for this season because if this group can coalesce, it could become a great team. The members of this year's team seem to be closer together in terms of individual talent than in the last few years where there were a few guys with extraordinary talent among other good players which tilted the attack. Teams that can hurt you equally from all positions are harder to defend or prepare for. I thoroughly enjoyed last year to the bitter end, as I do every season. Last year's cast of characters was particularly appealing though. This year's group could be very interesting IF they coalesce similar to the way the 2010 guys did. To me the excitement for the next season can get a bit dulled by a tough end to a great prior season, but by the end of the summer......I'm all in! Let's go! Yes, I know - Alabama etc. first, but then....:D

IrishDevil

08-23-2019, 12:11 PM

I hope his strength is not a weakness.

So Hurt is less of a "Moose" and more of a "Mouse"? :p

9720

thedukelamere

08-23-2019, 12:50 PM

I am excited for this season because if this group can coalesce, it could become a great team.

No need to bold; this is DBR, not IC or Rupp Rafters... Vocab words are always understood and appreciated, but then again I might just be a pertinacious homer ;)

whereinthehellami

08-23-2019, 01:05 PM

Strength probably, but we'll see if defense is a weakness for Matthew.

I've scouted him as a quick-reacting, good defender. Now I could be wrong obviously but here are my series of posts about this anyway in case you're interested (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43717-Welcome-to-Duke-Matthew-Hurt!/page4).

I missed your previous posts on this, sounds promising. I'd settle for not being a defensive liability. And i don't mean that as a knock on Matthew, it is going to be a big ask for him to hang with some of the bodies he will be up against as a 19 year old. I think we are gonna really like his offense. Words used to describe his offense are smart, skilled, and efficient.

I see him as a definite starter unless he is just getting Iso'd on defense. In which case we might see more Javin in there.

proelitedota

08-23-2019, 01:06 PM

So Hurt is less of a "Moose" and more of a "Mouse"? :p

9720

As long as he is not allergic to cake.

duke4ever19

08-23-2019, 02:28 PM

I have to be honest with you.

After the insane hype and the major disappointment of the past 3 seasons, I'm just not psyched up (yet) for this coming year. And maybe that's a good thing. Maybe some of us need diminished expectations to really enjoy the season. Maybe we need to not EXPECT a championship - at least, not to the crazy level that surrounded these previous teams. I hope our guys get a chance to fly (relatively) under the radar, so that we're not totally crushed if they get ousted before the Final Four, and so that we can be wildly ecstatic if they do make it there.

And no, I have not yet watched the Michigan State game. Nor may I ever.

Yesterday I realized that I had no clue what this year's team will be like. Are we more likely to witness an Austin River's-type season, or a Tyus Jones-type season?
We do have the savvy point guard all the great Duke teams feature, but is the supporting cast up to the level of those guys like Scheyer and Tyus had around them?