Tracking 2020 Draft Projections

[scottdude8]

It's never too early to start looking wayyyyyy ahead to next year's draft!!!

SI.com (https://www.si.com/nba/2019/06/24/2020-nba-draft-big-board-rj-hampton-cole-anthony-lamelo-ball) has their "way too early" 2020 Big Board up. It's quite interesting with regards to Duke players. Particularly:

Vernon Carey is the first Duke guy to show up, and he's all the way down to 25. After being a consensus Top 5 recruit and projected lottery pick for so long, this seems to fit with the storyline that scouts have soured on him slightly. I imagine someone will subtly let him know to add fuel to his fire ;)
The list is only a Top 30, so Tre Jones, Matt Hurt and Wendell Moore are nowhere to be found.

FWIW, the 2020 Mock Draft at NBADraft.net (https://www.nbadraft.net/2020mock_draft) was updated fairly recently, and has Carey at 13, Tre barely in the first round at 29, and Javin in the second round... none of our other freshmen are on the list. This site isn't the be all and end all, obviously, but between that and SI's Big Board it seems clear that none of our freshmen besides Carey are considered one-and-done "locks" by the scouting community.

That said, if Hurt shows the shooting touch we all expect, considering how the draft went (with Cam Johnson and Tyler Herro jumping into the lottery based on shooting, and a guy like Jordan Poole who was initially viewed as an undrafted prospect jumping into the late first round as a deadeye shooter) he could easily make a monumental leap.

Obviously these projections are the very definition of "way too early", but I think it bears emphasizing that this year's team will be different than the last few years... there are no consensus projected lottery picks amongst our very talented freshmen.

[sagegrouse]

It's never too early to start looking wayyyyyy ahead to next year's draft!!!

SI.com (https://www.si.com/nba/2019/06/24/2020-nba-draft-big-board-rj-hampton-cole-anthony-lamelo-ball) has their "way too early" 2020 Big Board up. It's quite interesting with regards to Duke players. Particularly:

Vernon Carey is the first Duke guy to show up, and he's all the way down to 25. After being a consensus Top 5 recruit and projected lottery pick for so long, this seems to fit with the storyline that scouts have soured on him slightly. I imagine someone will subtly let him know to add fuel to his fire ;)
The list is only a Top 30, so Tre Jones, Matt Hurt and Wendell Moore are nowhere to be found.

FWIW, the 2020 Mock Draft at NBADraft.net (https://www.nbadraft.net/2020mock_draft) was updated fairly recently, and has Carey at 13, Tre barely in the first round at 29, and Javin in the second round... none of our other freshmen are on the list. This site isn't the be all and end all, obviously, but between that and SI's Big Board it seems clear that none of our freshmen besides Carey are considered one-and-done "locks" by the scouting community.

That said, if Hurt shows the shooting touch we all expect, considering how the draft went (with Cam Johnson and Tyler Herro jumping into the lottery based on shooting, and a guy like Jordan Poole who was initially viewed as an undrafted prospect jumping into the late first round as a deadeye shooter) he could easily make a monumental leap.

Obviously these projections are the very definition of "way too early", but I think it bears emphasizing that this year's team will be different than the last few years... there are no consensus projected lottery picks amongst our very talented freshmen.

ESPN is more positive about the Duke players:

#13 - Hurt
#16 - Tre
#17 - Moore
#22 - Carey

[scottdude8]

ESPN is more positive about the Duke players:

#13 - Hurt
#16 - Tre
#17 - Moore
#22 - Carey

Thanks for that... ESPN's mock is behind the ESPN+ paywall now :(

At this point I think Tre in the late teens makes much more sense than outside of the Top 30 entirely. And the Hurt ranking on ESPN seems to fit more with the emphasis on shooting we saw in this year's draft. And Carey will be a first rounder, it just depends where. To me Moore is the biggest unknown with regards to NBA game... is he a defensive specialist (a couple of those did get drafted in the late first round this year)? Can he develop his shot into a 3-and-D guy (in which case he's got the possibility to move into the lottery)? Is he a more complete small forward a-la Justice Winslow/Jayson Tatum? That'll be interesting to watch not just for this year's team but for his draft stock.

[roywhite]

Speaking of Vernon Carey and his draft position, there may be some family competition as to where he gets selected...his father, Vernon Carey, Sr. was the 19th pick in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

And this will make us feel older....Vernon, Sr. was drafted in 2004.

[camion]

Speaking of Vernon Carey and his draft position, there may be some family competition as to where he gets selected...his father, Vernon Carey, Sr. was the 19th pick in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

And this will make us feel older...Vernon, Sr. was drafted in 2004.

I remember when the 21st century was brand spanking new. It's almost drinking age now. :eek:

[roywhite]

Speaking of Vernon Carey and his draft position, there may be some family competition as to where he gets selected...his father, Vernon Carey, Sr. was the 19th pick in the 1st round of the NFL draft.

And this will make us feel older...Vernon, Sr. was drafted in 2004.

thread hijack? yeah, but it's a long time till the 2020 NBA draft, so what the heck...

https://dymelyfe.com/blogs/news/sports-illustrated-when-the-canes-ruled-the-draft-the-year-miami-had-six-first-rounders

Sports Illustrated- When the Canes Ruled the Draft: The Year Miami Had Six First-Rounders

Carey had long expected to be in this position. Coming out of high school, he was one of the top recruits in the country—and the status may have gone to his head. “Vernon was a highly, highly sought-after recruit,” says Swasey, the strength coach. “Being all over the country eating on every trip—by the time he showed up, it was like, damn. He was up to 380-something, I think. I mean, he was heavy.” As a result, Carey redshirted his first year and mostly served as a backup the following two seasons.

Around that time, Carey received two wake-up calls. First, his girlfriend gave birth to their first child, a boy they named Vernon Carey Jr. Then he watched the Minnesota Vikings draft his Miami teammate Bryant McKinnie at No. 7 overall in 2002.

[CameronBornAndBred]

BR has Hurt at 10.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2842188-a-way-too-soon-2020-nba-lottery-mock-draft

[scottdude8]

SI.com (https://www.si.com/nba/2019/10/30/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball) has a new "preseason" mock draft up. Interestingly, Wendell Moore is now Duke's lone representative in the first round, listed as going No. 15. I think the analysis by the writer here is on point: namely, even if Moore is limited offensively (which has seemed to be the takeaway from the preseason), his NBA-made body and athleticism could allow him to find his way into the first round regardless, especially in a relatively weak draft year.

I imagine this will fluctuate WILDLY throughout the season... to my eye this may be the most unpredictable year when it comes to the draft in quite some time, perhaps since Anthony Bennett was the surprise No. 1 overall pick in 2013. But to those discussing (in other threads) the concern that Duke may be overcommitting when it comes to scholarships and recruiting, I think this is a very interesting data point, that at least one prognosticator thinks Moore is a first round pick even with his limitations. Given how weak this year's draft is, I think there's very little chance that ALL of our underclassmen return, for better or worse... and I imagine K knows this too and is recruiting accordingly.

[Nugget]

Givony's latest mock draft at ESPN (from about a month ago) has Hurt at #16, Tre at #18, Moore #19, Carey #27 and Stanley not projected in the Top 60.

I think there is significant built in expectation that Tre's 3pt shooting will meaningfully improve in that ranking.

[Nugget]

Givony's latest mock draft at ESPN (from about a month ago) has Hurt at #16, Tre at #18, Moore #19, Carey #27 and Stanley not projected in the Top 60.

I think there is significant built in expectation that Tre's 3pt shooting will meaningfully improve in that ranking.

Givony's updated his NBA draft board at ESPN, https://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable

His rankings of the Duke guys are roughly the same: #16 Matthew Hurt, #19 Tre Jones, #20 Wendell Moore, #28 Vernon Carey, Stanley-unranked.

He's got Boogie Ellis at #48.

Jordan Nwora at #34. Most of the other NBA draftniks have Nwora in the same range, which seems a bit low given how productive he is expected to be this season.

[JasonEvans]

Jordan Nwora at #34. Most of the other NBA draftniks have Nwora in the same range, which seems a bit low given how productive he is expected to be this season.

College productivity and NBA draft stock are not necessarily linked, as you well know. That said, I agree with you that Nwora seems to have skills that should translate to the next level. I could see him as a pretty good 3&D wing and those are certainly worth a mid-late first rounder.

[English]

For everyone who seems to have forgotten that NBA drafts don't always skew toward what college basketball fans think (or reflect college performance much at all), most of the larger hoops sites have updated their mocks in the last 1-2 days...obviously with the caveat that plenty can & will change over the course of the next few months...

Some Duke notables:
The Athletic--Matthew Hurt (No. 13), Wendell Moore (No. 15), Tre Jones (No. 23), Vernon Carey (No. 47)
CBSSports--Matthew Hurt (No. 20), Tre Jones (No. 24), Wendell Moore (No. 30)
Sporting News--Matthew Hurt (No. 17), Wendell Moore (No. 20), Tre Jones (No. 24), Vernon Carey (No. 26)
ESPN--Matthew Hurt (No. 16), Tre Jones (No. 19), Wendell Moore (No. 20), Vernon Carey (No. 28)

[JasonEvans]

Latest ESPN Mock Draft released earlier today:

Vernon Carey - 18
Tre Jones - 21
Matthew Hurt - 32 (2nd round)
Cassius Stanley - 53 (2nd round)

Wendell Moore nowhere to be found.

[SkyBrickey]

Latest ESPN Mock Draft released earlier today:

Vernon Carey - 18
Tre Jones - 21
Matthew Hurt - 32 (2nd round)
Cassius Stanley - 53 (2nd round)

Wendell Moore nowhere to be found.

I could get behind this starting lineup. Is it too early for a minutes discussion?
- Jeremy Roach
- Stanley
- Moore/Baker
- Jalen Johnson
- Hurt (stretch 5) after gaining 25 pounds of off-season muscle

[kAzE]

SI.com (https://www.si.com/nba/2019/10/30/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball) has a new "preseason" mock draft up. Interestingly, Wendell Moore is now Duke's lone representative in the first round, listed as going No. 15. I think the analysis by the writer here is on point: namely, even if Moore is limited offensively (which has seemed to be the takeaway from the preseason), his NBA-made body and athleticism could allow him to find his way into the first round regardless, especially in a relatively weak draft year.

What athleticism are you referring to? Wendell is not an elite athlete, even by college standards. He hasn't shown the ability to beat college defenders off the dribble without the use of a screen, and his lack of explosiveness limits his ability to finish at the rim. He does have size, and a very good frame, and shows some ability on the defensive end, but he is by no means a superior run/jump/quick twitch athlete. I suspect he has hurt himself in the eyes of NBA scouts through 8 college games thus far, but it's probably because I think everyone overestimated his athleticism. Before I saw him play, I thought he would be dunking on people with regularity, too. He's just not that type of athlete.

[JasonEvans]

I could get behind this starting lineup. Is it too early for a minutes discussion?
- Jeremy Roach
- Stanley
- Moore/Baker
- Jalen Johnson
- Hurt (stretch 5) after gaining 25 pounds of off-season muscle

From what I have heard, it is going to be very hard to keep DJ Steward's scoring punch out of the starting lineup.

[SkyBrickey]

From what I have heard, it is going to be very hard to keep DJ Steward's scoring punch out of the starting lineup.

Can he play center?

No, good point. I’ve read he is on the rise and a big time scorer.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Latest ESPN Mock Draft released earlier today:

Vernon Carey - 18
Tre Jones - 21
Matthew Hurt - 32 (2nd round)
Cassius Stanley - 53 (2nd round)

Wendell Moore nowhere to be found.

This more or less meets my expectations. Carey has done a lot to improve his position and is moving towards the lottery. He's a guy that is a plus offensively and at least passable on defense. There's a lot of value there for a variety of NBA teams. Tre Jones may never be a starting PG in the NBA, but he's got great value and is answering questions about his shooting. Hurt has slipped a little, but his shooting and basketball IQ at 6'9" leaves a lot to like in the modern NBA. I could see him shooting up the draft board during conference play. Stanley wasn't on draft boards over the summer and is starting to show up. He's a big guard with elite athleticism and a pretty good looking shot. Honestly, I wonder if he will move to late 1st/early 2nd round if he comes back healthy in about a month.

Moore has a lot of skills but appears to lack any kind of NBA skillset at the moment. The frame is good. The length is excellent as a multi-positional defender. The handles are pretty good. He has shown flashes of being a very good passer when he isn't turning the ball over. But he lacks the quickness and explosion to get to the rim at the moment. Honestly, I think he's going to be an excellent college player soon, either at the end of this year or next. I sort of hope it is next year as he's a very good player and he screams "sophomore leap" all over him, to my eyes at least.

[dukelifer]

This more or less meets my expectations. Carey has done a lot to improve his position and is moving towards the lottery. He's a guy that is a plus offensively and at least passable on defense. There's a lot of value there for a variety of NBA teams. Tre Jones may never be a starting PG in the NBA, but he's got great value and is answering questions about his shooting. Hurt has slipped a little, but his shooting and basketball IQ at 6'9" leaves a lot to like in the modern NBA. I could see him shooting up the draft board during conference play. Stanley wasn't on draft boards over the summer and is starting to show up. He's a big guard with elite athleticism and a pretty good looking shot. Honestly, I wonder if he will move to late 1st/early 2nd round if he comes back healthy in about a month.

Moore has a lot of skills but appears to lack any kind of NBA skillset at the moment. The frame is good. The length is excellent as a multi-positional defender. The handles are pretty good. He has shown flashes of being a very good passer when he isn't turning the ball over. But he lacks the quickness and explosion to get to the rim at the moment. Honestly, I think he's going to be an excellent college player soon, either at the end of this year or next. I sort of hope it is next year as he's a very good player and he screams "sophomore leap" all over him, to my eyes at least.

Carey will get drafted in the first round but Tre is still a question mark. I agree that everyone else is currently a second rounder or undrafted. But if this group makes a FF run- all bets are off.

[scottdude8]

Stanley will be an interesting case. We forget that he’s an older freshman (he’s already 20), which we’ve seen in the past can influence decisions. Now the injury is also a factor. But if he comes back strong, it wouldn’t shock me if he looks into his NBA stock closely, even if it’s looking like he isn’t a first rounder.

[BlueDevil16]

It's never too early to start speculating who will be entering the draft and where they will be going.

Vernon has really impressed me this season and he's been moving up to Top 5/10 in a lot of drafts.

Tre's outside jumper has appeared to get a bit better and I suspect he'll be a late first round based on mocks (some have him early second now, but I suspect he'll move up if he keeps up his play).

Hurt has fallen out of a lot of the recent mocks. Good player, but needs to bulk up and has been on the bench a lot during our close games. As things stand right now, he could come back for a second season if he doesn't have some great ACC play.

Cassius and Wendell seem to be getting mixed opinions and probably depends on how they finish the season, but could see Cassius leaving given his age and insane athletic ability. Wendell would likely need to work on finishing and limiting turnovers as has been stated on here numerous times.

Thoughts?

[JasonEvans]

It's never too early to start speculating who will be entering the draft and where they will be going.

Vernon has really impressed me this season and he's been moving up to Top 5/10 in a lot of drafts.

Tre's outside jumper has appeared to get a bit better and I suspect he'll be a late first round based on mocks (some have him early second now, but I suspect he'll move up if he keeps up his play).

Hurt has fallen out of a lot of the recent mocks. Good player, but needs to bulk up and has been on the bench a lot during our close games. As things stand right now, he could come back for a second season if he doesn't have some great ACC play.

Cassius and Wendell seem to be getting mixed opinions and probably depends on how they finish the season, but could see Cassius leaving given his age and insane athletic ability. Wendell would likely need to work on finishing and limiting turnovers as has been stated on here numerous times.

Thoughts?

My thought it is that we have a thread where we are already discussing many of these things so I will merge your thread with that one as it should provide some of the answers you are seeking.

[Billy Dat]

The most recent Devil's Den podcast has a nuanced discussion of how on this year's team will leave for the NBA Draft:

https://soundcloud.com/thedevilsdenpodcast/episode-99-duke-takes-down-vt-recruiting-news-and-brotherhood-feud

The discussion starts at the 14 minute mark.

[kcduke75]

The most recent Devil's Den podcast has a nuanced discussion of how on this year's team will leave for the NBA Draft:

Is it possible to get the Cliff's notes version?

Don't do podcasts

Thanks

[JasonEvans]

Is it possible to get the Cliff's notes version?

Everyone but Baker, Goldwire, and maybe O'Connell will be leaving... but that could change based on how players play this coming season.

[BlueDevil16]

Everyone but Baker, Goldwire, and maybe O'Connell will be leaving... but that could change based on how players play this coming season.

And the sky is blue...

[beach rev]

SI's Jeremy Woo weighs in with the latest Big Board projections:

https://www.si.com/nba/2019/12/11/2020-nba-draft-big-board-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball

Of note:
Vernon - #24
Wendell - #31
Tre - #40
Cassius - #50

[Natty_B]

Sam Vecenie of the The Athletic has his top 100 prospects up today. It's a good article, and IMO The Athletic is totally worth it, and it mentions how outside of the top 5 there is a lack of consensus.

22. Tre Jones
24. Matthew Hurt
29. Vernon Carey
65. Cassius Stanley
72. Wendell Moore

So only 3 Duke guys getting drafted and none anywhere near the lottery.

[scottdude8]

Everyone but Baker, Goldwire, and maybe O'Connell will be leaving... but that could change based on how players play this coming season.

That seems a tad bold to me, just based on the probabilities alone.

A thought-experiment:

Let's say that a consensus projected lottery pick declares for the draft 95% of the time (believe it or not it doesn't always happen... Miles Bridges returned to MSU for a sophomore season in such a situation, and actually might have hurt his draft stock, but that's more of a Tom Izzo problem, haha). Let's say a consensus projected non-lottery, but still first-round, pick leaves around 80% of the time. Let's say that guys on the first/second round fringe leave around 60% of the time, and guys with NBA potential but who are thought of as likely second round picks leave around 40% of the time. Highly recruited players who might not be drafted, but have an eye on starting their pro careers early might leave 25% of the time. Those are all conservative (i.e. high) numbers, but given what we've seen in the recent past it's probably more accurate to lean towards players leaving for the NBA than staying.

Based on the most recent prognostications (the SI and Athletic are two highlighted here), it looks like Vernon is the only guy who falls into the "consensus first-round" pick category. Tre, Wendell and Matt probably fall into the first/second round fringe category (and even that might be generous, especially for Matt who is left off of some lists entirely). Cassius as of now probably is in the second round category after his injury.

Based on those estimations, which again I purposely skewed to make it more likely that guys are going to the NBA, the odds of all five of our NBA caliber freshmen/sophomores going pro would be .80*.6^3*.4~7%.

To my eye, it's entirely likely that we're going to lose most of our five NBA-caliber youngsters. But all 5 of them? Based on where their prognostications currently stand, that seems unlikely. Now, if they all blow up and lead us to a national title and help their draft stock, that changes the scenario by a large margin, something I think most of us would be very happy with.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie of the The Athletic has his top 100 prospects up today. It's a good article, and IMO The Athletic is totally worth it, and it mentions how outside of the top 5 there is a lack of consensus.

22. Tre Jones
24. Matthew Hurt
29. Vernon Carey
65. Cassius Stanley
72. Wendell Moore

So only 3 Duke guys getting drafted and none anywhere near the lottery.

The exchange he had about Armando Bacot in the comments sections was hilarious.


Matt R: Sam, unless I overlooked him you don’t have Armando Bacot in your top 100. What are your thoughts on him as a pro down the road? He’s been very good for UNC this year.


Sam: He’s been fine. A 6-foot-9/6-foot-10 big-bodies true center with no perimeter game and only average length. I don’t really see him as a one and done. Think NC fans are more excited about him based on how bad the rest of the team has been.

[ChillinDuke]

Sam Vecenie of the The Athletic has his top 100 prospects up today. It's a good article, and IMO The Athletic is totally worth it, and it mentions how outside of the top 5 there is a lack of consensus.

22. Tre Jones
24. Matthew Hurt
29. Vernon Carey
65. Cassius Stanley
72. Wendell Moore

So only 3 Duke guys getting drafted and none anywhere near the lottery.

Sam's rankings look pretty reasonable to me. We're going to lose a few guys - that much I get. But none of these players look like a sure thing in the NBA. I would probably venture a guess that Vernon is the closest thing to a surefire OAD - he's just been a beast and his mobility strikes me as something that should be able to translate (as well as the potential for range out to the 3pt). But even he has some questions on how his game translates.

Tre is outstanding at the collegiate level, but his offense looks like it's lagging NBA standards. Matt seems like he may have the highest floor, but he's not ready physically at all. Cassius seems like an NBA athlete but it's hard to envision what skill will be his calling card in the NBA. And Wendell has struggled adapting to the college game.

I love all our guys, and I think they all have reasonable shots at succeeding in the NBA. But standing at today, it's hard to envision any of them having an "easy" decision. Even though I recognize that probabilities will make at least 2 (and potentially but unlikely all 5) bolt for the NBA.

- Chillin

[SkyBrickey]

I would be stunned if Carey is still around at 29. I understand the concerns about how his measurables and skills translate to the NBA, but he is more agile and athletic than people realize. And he can shoot the ball.

[UrinalCake]

The SI board has Cole Anthony at 6. Most others have him at 4 - he started the year as an almost consensus 3, but Ball has jumped him according to most. 6 would be disappointing. Could he be on the Nassir Little track?

[MarkD83]

Sam's rankings look pretty reasonable to me. We're going to lose a few guys - that much I get. But none of these players look like a sure thing in the NBA. I would probably venture a guess that Vernon is the closest thing to a surefire OAD - he's just been a beast and his mobility strikes me as something that should be able to translate (as well as the potential for range out to the 3pt). But even he has some questions on how his game translates.

Tre is outstanding at the collegiate level, but his offense looks like it's lagging NBA standards. Matt seems like he may have the highest floor, but he's not ready physically at all. Cassius seems like an NBA athlete but it's hard to envision what skill will be his calling card in the NBA. And Wendell has struggled adapting to the college game.

I love all our guys, and I think they all have reasonable shots at succeeding in the NBA. But standing at today, it's hard to envision any of them having an "easy" decision. Even though I recognize that probabilities will make at least 2 (and potentially but unlikely all 5) bolt for the NBA.

- Chillin

What has intrigued me about the NBA draft in the OAD era is how many of the players that are drafted are really ready for the NBA. The NBA WILL draft the top 60 most talented players from around the world. If you are one of the top 60 it does not matter if there are deficiencies in your game.

So, should we do the type of analysis that Chillin has done which is great or do we just ask "Are the Duke players in the top 60?" Maybe a little more precisely are they in the top 30, because 1st round draft picks get guaranteed money. Deficiencies in their games may not matter that much.

[Steven43]

The SI board has Cole Anthony at 6. Most others have him at 4 - he started the year as an almost consensus 3, but Ball has jumped him according to most. 6 would be disappointing. Could he be on the Nassir Little track?
You know it’s funny. So many basketball fans and writers/commentators were predicting that Cole Anthony was going to come to UNC and be spectacular right from the get-go. Maybe he still will be at some point during his one and only season in college, but I doubt it.

When are people going to realize that freshmen, no matter how talented, very rarely have a truly significant impact? Zion Williamson was an anomaly the likes of which we might not see again for many years, if ever.

[DavidBenAkiva]

You know it’s funny. So many basketball fans and writers/commentators were predicting that Cole Anthony was going to come to UNC and be spectacular right from the get-go. Maybe he still will be at some point during his one and only season in college, but I doubt it.

When are people going to realize that freshmen, no matter how talented, very rarely have a truly significant impact? Zion Williamson was an anomaly the likes of which we might not see again for many years, if ever.

I think Anthony is going to be fine and maybe even spectacular later this year at UNC. We have seen him play 9 games. He shoots the ball well. That alone will get you a look in the NBA. And we've seen with Kyrie and others that you don't have to be the pure playmaker at the PG position when you have the right guys around you. As weird as it would be to see as a Duke fan, Anthony would fit extremely well with RJ Barrett if they could add a floor spacer at the 3 for the Knicks. It's everyone else at UNC that has not stepped up yet. They thought that they could plug in Keeling, Pierce, Robinson, and Black into the lineup. So far, that isn't working out.

[CDu]

You know it’s funny. So many basketball fans and writers/commentators were predicting that Cole Anthony was going to come to UNC and be spectacular right from the get-go. Maybe he still will be at some point during his one and only season in college, but I doubt it.

When are people going to realize that freshmen, no matter how talented, very rarely have a truly significant impact? Zion Williamson was an anomaly the likes of which we might not see again for many years, if ever.

[Checks list of NCAA All-American teams in the 10s]
2019: Zion (PoY), Barrett
2018: Ayton, Bagley, Young
2017: Ball, Monk, Jackson (Josh), Markkanen
2016: Simmons, Murray
2015: Okafor, Russell, Towns
2014: Parker, Wiggins, Randle
2013: quiet
2012: Davis (PoY), Kidd-Gilchrist
2011*: Sullinger
2010: Wall, Cousins

[Checks list of All-ACC teams in the 10s]
2019: Zion (PoY), Barrett, White
2018: Bagley (PoY), Carter
2017: Smith
2016: Ingram
2015: Okafor (PoY), Jones
2014: Parker, Ennis
2013: quiet
2012: Rivers
2011*: Barnes, Marshall
2010:

* - We probably add a certain Duke player to the list if not for a certain lower-extremity injury

Doesn't seem all that rare for a freshman to have a significant impact. And becoming less and less so more recently. We're at the point where we should expect at least one freshman to be a 1st team All-American, and quite frequently a freshman is in the hunt for ACC PoY.

Now, it's certainly rare for a freshman to have the impact Zion had. But in fairness it is rare (perhaps unprecedented) for ANY player, regardless of class, to have the impact Zion had.

[CDu]

I think Anthony is going to be fine and maybe even spectacular later this year at UNC. We have seen him play 9 games. He shoots the ball well. That alone will get you a look in the NBA. And we've seen with Kyrie and others that you don't have to be the pure playmaker at the PG position when you have the right guys around you. As weird as it would be to see as a Duke fan, Anthony would fit extremely well with RJ Barrett if they could add a floor spacer at the 3 for the Knicks. It's everyone else at UNC that has not stepped up yet. They thought that they could plug in Keeling, Pierce, Robinson, and Black into the lineup. So far, that isn't working out.

Yeah, the rest of that team is REALLY bad. Bacot and Brooks are tolerable but nothing special. But after that? Awful. Puts a lot of pressure on the PG when there is nobody else capable of creating their own shot.

[Steven43]

[Checks list of NCAA All-American teams in the 10s]
2019: Zion (PoY), Barrett
2018: Ayton, Bagley, Young
2017: Ball, Monk, Jackson (Josh), Markkanen
2016: Simmons, Murray
2015: Okafor, Russell, Towns
2014: Parker, Wiggins, Randle
2013: quiet
2012: Davis (PoY), Kidd-Gilchrist
2011*: Sullinger
2010: Wall, Cousins

[Checks list of All-ACC teams in the 10s]
2019: Zion (PoY), Barrett, White
2018: Bagley (PoY), Carter
2017: Smith
2016: Ingram
2015: Okafor (PoY), Jones
2014: Parker, Ennis
2013: quiet
2012: Rivers
2011*: Barnes, Marshall
2010:

* - We probably add a certain Duke player to the list if not for a certain lower-extremity injury

Doesn't seem all that rare for a freshman to have a significant impact. And becoming less and less so more recently. We're at the point where we should expect at least one freshman to be a 1st team All-American, and quite frequently a freshman is in the hunt for ACC PoY.

Now, it's certainly rare for a freshman to have the impact Zion had. But in fairness it is rare (perhaps unprecedented) for ANY player, regardless of class, to have the impact Zion had.

I don’t think I made clear what I meant by “truly significant” — which I was thinking of as being TRANSCENDENT. People were hyping Cole Anthony as being a Zion Williamson-like impact player. Not a single one of the players you listed — other than Anthony Davis — was anywhere near Zion’s level. That was the point I was making.

Cole Anthony was talked about as being a transcendent player on the level of Zion (and Davis). He is not. And neither were any of the others on your list.

[CDu]

I don’t think I made clear what I meant by “truly significant” — which I was thinking of as being TRANSCENDENT. People were hyping Cole Anthony as being a Zion Williamson-like impact player. Not a single one of the players you listed — other than Anthony Davis — was anywhere near Zion’s level. That was the point I was making.

And neither are any of the other college players of any class in probably 30 years or more. That's not an indictment of freshmen - that's just how amazing Zion was. I don't think anyone expected anyone in this weaker class to come anywhere near Zion's impact.


Cole Anthony was talked about as being a transcendent player on the level of Zion (and Davis). He is not. And neither were any of the others on your list.

I think you're overstating the hype Anthony came in with. I don't think anyone was saying he'd be like Zion. I mean, he wasn't even the #1 recruit coming out of high school, so clearly folks didn't think THAT highly of him.

I think Anthony stands a pretty good chance of being 1st Team All-ACC and an All-American. If his teammates didn't suck, he would be a comfortable favorite to make those lists. I think that is probably in line with the preseason expectations for him.

[jimsumner]

I think you're overstating the hype Anthony came in with. I don't think anyone was saying he'd be like Zion. I mean, he wasn't even the #1 recruit coming out of high school, so clearly folks didn't think THAT highly of him.

.

Zion also wasn't the #1 recruit coming out of high school.

[Steven43]

I think you're overstating the hype Anthony came in with. I don't think anyone was saying he'd be like Zion. I mean, he wasn't even the #1 recruit coming out of high school, so clearly folks didn't think THAT highly of him.

I think Anthony stands a pretty good chance of being 1st Team All-ACC and an All-American. If his teammates didn't suck, he would be a comfortable favorite to make those lists. I think that is probably in line with the preseason expectations for him.
No, I do not think I’m overstating the hype Cole Anthony came in with. And I didn’t say anyone specifically said he’d be like Zion. I’m not sure which shows and internet sites you were watching/reading, but I saw story after story after story hyping up Anthony as being this amazing wunderkind — a transcendent player. I don’t think any of the guys on your list, including Zion, were hyped to the degree that Anthony was prior to him enrolling at UNC.

By comparison, RJ Barrett was hardly talked about before he enrolled at Duke. Yes, many thought he was going to be good, and he got some de facto hype because he was the #1-ranked player coming out of high school, but it was nowhere close to the hype Anthony got,

[Steven43]

I think you're overstating the hype Anthony came in with. I don't think anyone was saying he'd be like Zion. I mean, he wasn't even the #1 recruit coming out of high school, so clearly folks didn't think THAT highly of him.
No, I do not think I’m overstating the hype Cole Anthony came in with. And I didn’t say anyone specifically said he’d be like Zion. I’m not sure which shows and internet sites you were watching/reading, but I saw story after story after story hyping up Anthony as being this amazing wunderkind — a transcendent player. I don’t think any of the guys on your list, including Zion, were hyped to the degree that Anthony was prior to him enrolling at UNC.

By comparison, RJ Barrett was hardly talked about before he enrolled at Duke. Yes, many thought he was going to be good, and he got some de facto hype because he was the #1-ranked player coming out of high school, but it was nowhere close to what Anthony received.

And the fact that Anthony was NOT the #1-ranked recruit — as you alluded to — made the massive amount of hype he received stand out all the more in my mind.

[hudlow]

I don’t think any of the guys on your list, including Zion, were hyped to the degree that Anthony was prior to him enrolling at UNC.




Let us not forget that U*NC has a powerful school of journalism - and a whole lot of envy.

[Steven43]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/247sports.com/college/north-carolina/Article/The-Hype-for-Cole-Anthony-UNC-basketball-138114398/Amp/

I lost count of how many articles like this I’ve seen about Anthony. The almost overwhelming hype has been all over tv sports shows as well.

[Steven43]

Let us not forget that U*NC has a powerful school of journalism - and a whole lot of envy.

This.

[CDu]

Zion also wasn't the #1 recruit coming out of high school.

Sure, but Zion's actual performance far exceeded his hype coming in. Zion was "just" known as a great dunker coming in to college. The real hype coming in was around Barrett.

[CDu]

No, I do not think I’m overstating the hype Cole Anthony came in with. And I didn’t say anyone specifically said he’d be like Zion. I’m not sure which shows and internet sites you were watching/reading, but I saw story after story after story hyping up Anthony as being this amazing wunderkind — a transcendent player. I don’t think any of the guys on your list, including Zion, were hyped to the degree that Anthony was prior to him enrolling at UNC.

By comparison, RJ Barrett was hardly talked about before he enrolled at Duke. Yes, many thought he was going to be good, and he got some de facto hype because he was the #1-ranked player coming out of high school, but it was nowhere close to what Anthony received.

And the fact that Anthony was NOT the #1-ranked recruit — as you alluded to — made the massive amount of hype he received stand out all the more in my mind.

Yeah, we're going to have to agree to disagree on that. I think Barrett received a TON of hype coming in. I don't know that an Inside Carolina article is going to convince me that the hype for Anthony is too much. I mean, he wasn't selected Preseason ACC Player of the Year and finished behind Tre Jones in the overall Preseason ACC list. So clearly the masses didn't think he was going to be transcendant like the player Zion was last season.

I mean, it's absolutely true what Williams said in that Inside Carolina piece: Anthony IS the most complete guard he's ever landed. Lawson didn't have the size or shooting ability Anthony has. White was really a SG and not a PG. Jacque Vaughn wasn't very good offensively. Felton is probably the closest, but he didn't recruit Felton.

[JasonEvans]

\By comparison, RJ Barrett was hardly talked about before he enrolled at Duke. Yes, many thought he was going to be good, and he got some de facto hype because he was the #1-ranked player coming out of high school, but it was nowhere close to what Anthony received.

And the fact that Anthony was NOT the #1-ranked recruit — as you alluded to — made the massive amount of hype he received stand out all the more in my mind.

Ummm... RJ led Team Canada to victory over Team USA and folks have been hyping him like crazy ever since then. Maybe you did not hear much about him but I recal a ton of hype about him as a recruit before he committed to Duke. Dude was the #1 recruit in the 2019 class before reclassifying to 2018 and he was still the #1 even going up a year in competition. Now that is hype! Worth noting that he lived up to that hype by scoring more points than any freshman in ACC history.

I agree that Anthony was hyped, perhaps a bit more than his ranking might have indicated was appropriate, but I don't feel like it was all that out of hand. I mean, Jabari Parker was on the cover of SI while still in high school. ESPN did a major preseason video series and TV special on Duke last year largely because of RJ and Zion. Marvin Bagley announced his decision to attend Duke on prime time on ESPN's Sportscenter. The Black Falcon was the preseason Player of the Year in college basketball. I'm not saying Anthony wasn't hyped, but it sure doesn't feel like Anthony's hype was as much as those guys and all that out of line for a top 5 recruit.

-Jason "perhaps because of his famous father and last name, we heard a little more about Anthony than other typical top recruits" Evans

[ChillinDuke]

No, I do not think I’m overstating the hype Cole Anthony came in with. And I didn’t say anyone specifically said he’d be like Zion. I’m not sure which shows and internet sites you were watching/reading, but I saw story after story after story hyping up Anthony as being this amazing wunderkind — a transcendent player. I don’t think any of the guys on your list, including Zion, were hyped to the degree that Anthony was prior to him enrolling at UNC.

By comparison, RJ Barrett was hardly talked about before he enrolled at Duke. Yes, many thought he was going to be good, and he got some de facto hype because he was the #1-ranked player coming out of high school, but it was nowhere close to what Anthony received.

And the fact that Anthony was NOT the #1-ranked recruit — as you alluded to — made the massive amount of hype he received stand out all the more in my mind.

I agree with CDu here. Some of what you experienced was likely just "marketing" in the sense that people that follow college have to try to drum up some interest in college. Coming off The Season of Zion, where he was appointment television for pretty much the entire nation, I think talking heads were trying to find anything to hang their hat on to be excited about for this season. Anthony was one of a few players that they could dub the next "generational talent" which is a title often thrown around in the offseason. We saw it with Jabari Parker, for instance, who was on the cover of SI. Almost every year there is a player (or even more than one) that talking heads start anointing as the next "it".

Removing that aspect from the equation, I think CDu is right in the data points he gave. Anthony was not generally lauded by preseason awards or accolades that would point to him being Zion-esque. And while Jim Sumner is correct to point out that not even Zion received those accolades before last season started, this argument struck me as "Will preseason Anthony pan out as good as post-season Zion panned out?" With yes being the thesis. I don't think that's generally true, although I can't tell singular posters what they did or did not perceive. I just didn't perceive it myself, similar to what CDu expressed.

- Chillin

[Steven43]

In any case, the hype talk was not my main focus at all; it was merely an incidental comment. My main point was that truly transcendent freshmen like Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis are very very rare.

Had things played out a bit differently Zion would have his team to the national championship as far and away the best player in all of college basketball. None of the other freshmen on CDu’s list — other than Anthony Davis — were on that level. That was really what I was trying to say, though I didn’t explain it particularly well.

[UrinalCake]

Yeah, Barrett was definitely the most hyped player leading up to the season. The thought among draft experts was that Barrett was in a group by himself and everyone else was a notch below (Bagley was also in that group before he reclassified). As far as Anthony, I think a lot of the hype came from the fact that Roy has not had an elite PG recruit in a while, maybe since Felton and Lawson. Cony White turned out to be really good but he was ranked in the 20’s coming in, and guys like Kendall Marshall and Joel Berry we’re also lower ranked and didn’t have the same kind of flash. Add in the famous father and it was an easy storyline to call Anthony the savior of UNC’s program.

I think he’s lost some luster after playing great the first two games. Playing against top defenses is a huge part, but even UNC fans are starting to question his decision-making. Maybe he and the team can turn things around once everyone is healthy and they have more time to gel, but right now he doesn’t look like a top-3 pick.

[Stray Gator]

I think Anthony is going to be fine and maybe even spectacular later this year at UNC. We have seen him play 9 games. He shoots the ball well. . . .

He may become spectacular later this season, but IMO Anthony hasn't come near living up to the enormous hype that preceded his appearance on the court, and that was amplified exponentially in the immediate aftermath of his debut. I certainly wouldn't say that Anthony is shooting the ball well so far -- just that he shoots the ball more than anyone else. Through 9 games, Anthony has taken more than twice as many shots as any of his teammates, though he's only making a modest 36.8% from the field and 67.9% from the free throw line. By comparison, Tre Jones -- whose shooting has been a popular object of criticism -- is making 42.1% from the floor and 78.7% from the free throw line. (Anthony currently holds a slight edge over Jones in made three-pointers at 35.5% vs. 32.5%, but over the past couple of weeks those respective percentages appear to be trending in the opposite direction.) And unlike Jones, Anthony has more turnovers than assists.

Again, I acknowledge that it's still early, and Anthony may yet earn all those lofty accolades. But to this point in the season, at least, I'm no more impressed with his performance than I am with that of Duke's less heralded freshmen.

[Steven43]

I think a lot of the hype came from the fact that Roy has not had an elite PG recruit in a while, maybe since Felton and Lawson. Cony White turned out to be really good but he was ranked in the 20’s coming in, and guys like Kendall Marshall and Joel Berry we’re also lower ranked and didn’t have the same kind of flash. Add in the famous father and it was an easy storyline to call Anthony the savior of UNC’s program.

I think you got to the heart of the Anthony hype, UC. 👍🏻

[ChillinDuke]

Yeah, Barrett was definitely the most hyped player leading up to the season. The thought among draft experts was that Barrett was in a group by himself and everyone else was a notch below (Bagley was also in that group before he reclassified). As far as Anthony, I think a lot of the hype came from the fact that Roy has not had an elite PG recruit in a while, maybe since Felton and Lawson. Cony White turned out to be really good but he was ranked in the 20’s coming in, and guys like Kendall Marshall and Joel Berry we’re also lower ranked and didn’t have the same kind of flash. Add in the famous father and it was an easy storyline to call Anthony the savior of UNC’s program.

I think he’s lost some luster after playing great the first two games. Playing against top defenses is a huge part, but even UNC fans are starting to question his decision-making. Maybe he and the team can turn things around once everyone is healthy and they have more time to gel, but right now he doesn’t look like a top-3 pick.

I think this is a nice post. In particular on the bolded, my sense is to ask UNC fans, "What decision making?" Roy is a system coach, right? He runs his tempo, his fast and secondary breaks. He wants two bigs, and he wants to play through the post. So what decision making is Anthony supposed to be displaying? The one that Roy wants, which essentially begs the response that there is no decision to be made just a situational rule to be followed? Or the one that causes UNC to win, which essentially requires him to force plays and take a lot of shots because no one else is overly capable of either of those things? It's not a recipe for success.



He may become spectacular later this season, but IMO Anthony hasn't come near living up to the enormous hype that preceded his appearance on the court, and that was amplified exponentially in the immediate aftermath of his debut. I certainly wouldn't say that Anthony is shooting the ball well so far -- just that he shoots the ball more than anyone else. Through 9 games, Anthony has taken more than twice as many shots as any of his teammates, though he's only making a modest 36.8% from the field and 67.9% from the free throw line. By comparison, Tre Jones -- whose shooting has been a popular object of criticism -- is making 42.1% from the floor and 78.7% from the free throw line. (Anthony currently holds a slight edge over Jones in made three-pointers at 35.5% vs. 32.5%, but over the past couple of weeks those respective percentages appear to be trending in the opposite direction.) And unlike Jones, Anthony has more turnovers than assists.

Again, I acknowledge that it's still early, and Anthony may yet earn all those lofty accolades. But to this point in the season, at least, I'm no more impressed with his performance than I am with that of Duke's less heralded freshmen.

Oh, I agree with this post as well. Always well stated, in typical Stray fashion. That said, I'm not sure how much of this is Anthony's fault. While I think he will continue to improve throughout the course of the season, I don't think he's going to achieve immense success because, unlike Zion (or Tre, for that matter), Cole Anthony is the significant focus of every defense UNC faces. Imagine Zion last year without RJ or Cam. Or Tre this year without Vernon or Cassius. My sense is both players' stats would have been significantly hampered by having to suffer through intense defensive schemes designed to slow them as well as having to force offense.

- Chillin

[JasonEvans]

In any case, the hype talk was not my main focus at all; it was merely an incidental comment. My main point was that truly transcendent freshmen like Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis are very very rare.

Had things played out a bit differently Zion would have his team to the national championship as far and away the best player in all of college basketball. None of the other freshmen on CDu’s list — other than Anthony Davis — were on that level. That was really what I was trying to say, though I didn’t explain it particularly well.

I think what happened was you wrote this...


People were hyping Cole Anthony as being a Zion Williamson-like impact player. Not a single one of the players you listed — other than Anthony Davis — was anywhere near Zion’s level. That was the point I was making.

Cole Anthony was talked about as being a transcendent player on the level of Zion (and Davis). He is not. And neither were any of the others on your list.

...and folks jumped in to say that your perception of Anthony's hype was misguided. No one... NO ONE... is saying that we believe Anthony or other top freshmen this year are anywhere close to the level of player that Zion (or Davis) was. What some of us wanted to point out was that we disagreed with your very clear statement that Anthony was getting Zion-level hype. As numerous previous posts show, Anthony's hype does not appear to have been on the level of RJ Barrett or Jabari Parker... let alone Zion.

Ok, I feel like the horse is sufficiently dead now. I'm out ;)

[CDu]

In any case, the hype talk was not my main focus at all; it was merely an incidental comment. My main point was that truly transcendent freshmen like Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis are very very rare.

Had things played out a bit differently Zion would have his team to the national championship as far and away the best player in all of college basketball. None of the other freshmen on CDu’s list — other than Anthony Davis — were on that level. That was really what I was trying to say, though I didn’t explain it particularly well.

Well, the disagreement was on how hyped Anthony was. I don't think he was ever really hyped as anything close to the player Zion became last season.

As to your bolded sentence, that's not really limited to freshmen. Very few players... end stop... are as transcendent as Davis and Williamson were. Though honestly, in this era, it's much more likely that those transcendent players are freshmen than anything else.

But regardless, it's sort of an odd point to bring up in reference to Anthony, who wasn't really getting that kind of hype anyway. And in the context of what you said ("freshmen rarely make truly significant impacts"), it's kind of irrelevant anyway. Because if "truly significant" was meant to be "transcendent", then almost nobody does that (freshman, sophomore, junior, or senior). And Anthony wasn't getting "transcendent" type of hype outside of maybe a few homer "journalists". He certainly didn't get that kind of hype from the mainstream media (who voted Jordan freaking Nwora as ACC PoY and who voted Tre Jones above Anthony on All-ACC).

[Steven43]

Well, the disagreement was on how hyped Anthony was. I don't think he was ever really hyped as anything close to the player Zion became last season.

As to your bolded sentence, that's not really limited to freshmen. Very few players... end stop... are as transcendent as Davis and Williamson were. Though honestly, in this era, it's much more likely that those transcendent players are freshmen than anything else.

For some reason I think the Cole Anthony hype was made into a contentious ssue where there really wasn’t one. My point was that freshman are rarely transcendent (like Davis and Williamson), and Anthony likely is not, though many thought he was coming into this season. I don’t think I intimated more than that, though perhaps I did unintentionally. I’d have to go back and read my texts to be certain.

[arnie]

I think Anthony is going to be fine and maybe even spectacular later this year at UNC. We have seen him play 9 games. He shoots the ball well. That alone will get you a look in the NBA. And we've seen with Kyrie and others that you don't have to be the pure playmaker at the PG position when you have the right guys around you. As weird as it would be to see as a Duke fan, Anthony would fit extremely well with RJ Barrett if they could add a floor spacer at the 3 for the Knicks. It's everyone else at UNC that has not stepped up yet. They thought that they could plug in Keeling, Pierce, Robinson, and Black into the lineup. So far, that isn't working out.

What possible metric do you use to state Cole shoots the ball well? Sounds like you’re basing that on all the preseason hype, cause 30 something % doesn’t tell me he shoots “well”.

[Steven43]

I think what happened was you wrote this...



...and folks jumped in to say that your perception of Anthony's hype was misguided. No one... NO ONE... is saying that we believe Anthony or other top freshmen this year are anywhere close to the level of player that Zion (or Davis) was. What some of us wanted to point out was that we disagreed with your very clear statement that Anthony was getting Zion-level hype. As numerous previous posts show, Anthony's hype does not appear to have been on the level of RJ Barrett or Jabari Parker... let alone Zion.

Ok, I feel like the horse is sufficiently dead now. I'm out ;)

Jason, it’s not fair to come in and score some points supporting your position and THEN say that the horse is sufficiently dead. If you think the subject is dead then perhaps you shouldn’t be commenting at all at that point. I think the horse is still on a respirator clinging to life, though just barely. 😉

By the way, UNC Basketball still sucks. Can we at least agree on that?

[DavidBenAkiva]

What possible metric do you use to state Cole shoots the ball well? Sounds like you’re basing that on all the preseason hype, cause 30 something % doesn’t tell me he shoots “well”.

In just 9 college games, he has made 22 of 62 3-point attempts (35.5%). That is not bad but over a very small sample size. His recent 1-6 performance against UVA skews that quite a bit. If you look at his whole history from AAU and high school, he's an excellent shooter. In 21 games during the summer AAU circuit of 2018 (https://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/24308566), he made 38% of his 3-point attempts and almost 90% of his free throw attempts. That's a much bigger sample size and matches his career shooting stats from high school. He's not Steph Curry or even Luke Kennard from deep, but he's pretty good.

[kAzE]

In just 9 college games, he has made 22 of 62 3-point attempts (35.5%). That is not bad but over a very small sample size. His recent 1-6 performance against UVA skews that quite a bit. If you look at his whole history from AAU and high school, he's an excellent shooter. In 21 games during the summer AAU circuit of 2018 (https://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/24308566), he made 38% of his 3-point attempts and almost 90% of his free throw attempts. That's a much bigger sample size and matches his career shooting stats from high school. He's not Steph Curry or even Luke Kennard from deep, but he's pretty good.

It probably doesn't help that none of his team mates can shoot, and he's getting all of the defensive attention, but my impression of Cole is that he's really just an undersized shooting guard. And not in the Kyrie Irving kind of way. He doesn't have that type of handle and decision making, which leads him to turn over the ball at a high rate.

I think Cole is something like an improved version of Austin Rivers. Better shooter, better rebounder, but I don't think he's a NBA caliber point guard. I think he'll make a career out of being a high level scorer off the bench in the league.

[arnie]

In just 9 college games, he has made 22 of 62 3-point attempts (35.5%). That is not bad but over a very small sample size. His recent 1-6 performance against UVA skews that quite a bit. If you look at his whole history from AAU and high school, he's an excellent shooter. In 21 games during the summer AAU circuit of 2018 (https://www.d1circuit.com/roster_players/24308566), he made 38% of his 3-point attempts and almost 90% of his free throw attempts. That's a much bigger sample size and matches his career shooting stats from high school. He's not Steph Curry or even Luke Kennard from deep, but he's pretty good.

So far at UNCheat he’s also shooting 30 something % on 2-pt shots and under 68% from the FT line. Maybe he’s uncomfortable with the college FT distance.😀

[CDu]

It probably doesn't help that none of his team mates can shoot, and he's getting all of the defensive attention, but my impression of Cole is that he's really just an undersized shooting guard. And not in the Kyrie Irving kind of way. He doesn't have that type of handle and decision making, which leads him to turn over the ball at a high rate.

I think Cole is something like an improved version of Austin Rivers. Better shooter, better rebounder, but I don't think he's a NBA caliber point guard. I think he'll make a career out of being a high level scorer off the bench in the league.

I think he's a better passer than Rivers, too. But, again, his teammates stink. Like, it's a really weak group of guys around him. Recruiting attrition appears to have caught up to them (finally). It was likely to be about how much he could mask the deficiencies of the guys around him barring an unexpected Luke Maye-like emergence from a returnee.

I kind of see him as a taller Kyle Lowry, or a cross between Lowry and Randy Foye. He's a better shooter than those guys were at this stage, and I don't know if he defends like they did at the college level. But stylistically that's kind of where I see him.

[JasonEvans]

Jason, it’s not fair to come in and score some points supporting your position and THEN say that the horse is sufficiently dead. If you think the subject is dead then perhaps you shouldn’t be commenting at all at that point. I think the horse is still on a respirator clinging to life, though just barely. 😉

By the way, UNC Basketball still sucks. Can we at least agree on that?

100% agreed!!

I was sorta meaning there was no more horse beating left in me, which is why I was bowing out. Other can continue to flog all they want but I've said my peace ;)

[Steven43]

100% agreed!!

I was sorta meaning there was no more horse beating left in me, which is why I was bowing out. Other can continue to flog all they want but I've said my peace ;)

Totally understand. Thanks Jason. 👍🏻

As an aside, I saw the other day that Tre Jones is projected to go as the #22 pick in the upcoming draft. Does anyone remember his projected 2019 draft position at the end of his freshman year/beginning of summer?

[CDu]

Totally understand. Thanks Jason. ����

As an aside, I saw the other day that Tre Jones is projected to go as the #22 pick in the upcoming draft. Does anyone remember his projected 2019 draft position at the end of his freshman year/beginning of summer?

I think it was in the 20s or 30s, depending on site. There is a lot of variability in how folks are ranking these guys (understandably so). For example, some still have Hurt in the teens, some have him not on the board.

[kAzE]

I saw the other day that Tre Jones is projected to go as the #22 pick in the upcoming draft. Does anyone remember his projected 2019 draft position at the end of his freshman year/beginning of summer?

Jonathan Givony currently has 5 Duke players in the top 60 of his 2020 mock draft:

18. Vernon Carey
21. Tre Jones
32. Wendell Moore
33. Matthew Hurt
59. Cassius Stanley

I believe Tre was an early second round pick #32 or 33 before the 2019 draft on Givony's board.

Cassius all the way down at 59 is surprising to me. Givony gives pros and cons to the higher rated prospects, but I would really interested in hearing why he's this low on Stanley. I guess his lack of length and age might be a factor, but I thought he would be rated as a better prospect than Wendell Moore right now.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jonathan Givony currently has 5 Duke players in the top 60 of his 2020 mock draft:

18. Vernon Carey
21. Tre Jones
32. Wendell Moore
33. Matthew Hurt
59. Cassius Stanley

I believe Tre was an early second round pick #32 or 33 before the 2019 draft on Givony's board.

Cassius all the way down at 59 is surprising to me. Givony gives pros and cons to the higher rated prospects, but I would really interested in hearing why he's this low on Stanley. I guess his lack of length and age might be a factor, but I thought he would be rated as a better prospect than Wendell Moore right now.

If I recall correctly, Cassius wasn't listed by Givony or on any mock draft before the season started. He's rising up boards, although no sure thing to go 1st round or even go pro after the season. My read on it is that he's now someone to watch. They'll want to see him be more consistent and to know that he's healthy after the knee injury.

[JasonEvans]

I think it was in the 20s or 30s, depending on site. There is a lot of variability in how folks are ranking these guys (understandably so). For example, some still have Hurt in the teens, some have him not on the board.

The bottom line, to me, on Tre was that there was a very good chance, even a probability, a year ago that he would not be a first round draft pick. Life as a 2nd rounder is a lot less certain. It probably involves much time in the G-league and certainly involves contracts that are not guaranteed and maybe 50% of what you would make as a first round pick. If you have a good chance to play your way into being a near certain first round pick, returning to school is a no-brainer in my opinion.

It is also worth noting that most folks think the 2020 draft will be significantly weaker than the 2019 one was, making it easier for a guy like Tre to become a first round pick.

-Jason "I'm sure Tyus also spoke to people he knew around the league to help Tre make the right decision" Evans

[CDu]

Jonathan Givony currently has 5 Duke players in the top 60 of his 2020 mock draft:

18. Vernon Carey
21. Tre Jones
32. Wendell Moore
33. Matthew Hurt
59. Cassius Stanley

I believe Tre was an early second round pick #32 or 33 before the 2019 draft on Givony's board.

Cassius all the way down at 59 is surprising to me. Givony gives pros and cons to the higher rated prospects, but I would really interested in hearing why he's this low on Stanley. I guess his lack of length and age might be a factor, but I thought he would be rated as a better prospect than Wendell Moore right now.

I suspect it is somewhat due to inertia. Moore has the better high school resume and the better size/length coming in. So he was rated much higher. Stanley wasn’t highly thought of coming in. It will probably take more time (we have only a few meaningful games) for opinions to change and solidify.

[SkyBrickey]

Jonathan Givony currently has 5 Duke players in the top 60 of his 2020 mock draft:

18. Vernon Carey
21. Tre Jones
32. Wendell Moore
33. Matthew Hurt
59. Cassius Stanley

I believe Tre was an early second round pick #32 or 33 before the 2019 draft on Givony's board.

Cassius all the way down at 59 is surprising to me. Givony gives pros and cons to the higher rated prospects, but I would really interested in hearing why he's this low on Stanley. I guess his lack of length and age might be a factor, but I thought he would be rated as a better prospect than Wendell Moore right now.

This feels directionally right to me. Vernon and Tre in the first round with the other three working to play themselves into first round picks.

[BlueDevil16]

Seems like the mocks are still highly volatile. Guessing by the end of Jan when conference play really kicks in things will be a bit more consistent across sites.

[BlueDevil16]

Who are we thinking leaves this year? Carey and Tre should, but Cassius, Moore, and Hurt don’t seem to be one and dones.

[JasonEvans]

Who are we thinking leaves this year? Carey and Tre should, but Cassius, Moore, and Hurt don’t seem to be one and dones.

It is still too early to tell about anyone other than Carey and Tre (who are both leaving). Let's see what the next couple months bring. It is worth noting that some guys decide they are ready even though their on-court performance may not make that obvious. Unless you are in the head of Cassius, Wendell, or Matt you really have no idea where these guys are leaning.

-Jason "I suspect we won't have a good idea about their decisions until they announce" Evans

[jimsumner]

It is still too early to tell about anyone other than Carey and Tre (who are both leaving). Let's see what the next couple months bring. It is worth noting that some guys decide they are ready even though their on-court performance may not make that obvious. Unless you are in the head of Cassius, Wendell, or Matt you really have no idea where these guys are leaning.

-Jason "I suspect we won't have a good idea about their decisions until they announce" Evans

Trevon Duval is an example of a player who came to Duke with every expectation of being a one-and-done and never wavered in that conviction despite considerable reasons to do so.

[UrinalCake]

I think Stanley is more likely to leave than Moore because he has NBA athleticism and will look great at the combine and someone will take a chance on him. I know we've talked a lot about his age, that might be a small factor but ultimately it comes down to a.) where each player would be drafted and b.) how much they stand to gain or lose by returning to school. Moore doesn't do any one thing at an elite level, he's a versatile player but not someone who will draw a lot of attention from NBA scouts.

Hurt is kind of a mystery, he's all over the draft boards. I'd say he's 50/50 to go at this point, but I tend to overestimate the likelihood of players coming back.

[stickdog]

http://cbbref.com/tiny/b1hCr

[budwom]

draft analyses have progressed from giving Vernon no respect to giving him modest but insufficient respect. Yeah, I know all about the role of NBA big men, but I don't think I see 17 better NBA prospects in this draft...I'd buy some Vern stock at this price.

[BlueDevil16]

Feel like Hurt could be playing himself into the first round after his recent performances. Still will need a lot of work to make it at that level, but someone might take him and let him develop for a few years.

[CDu]

Feel like Hurt could be playing himself into the first round after his recent performances. Still will need a lot of work to make it at that level, but someone might take him and let him develop for a few years.

The question for Hurt will always be strength/athleticism. He doesn’t have the athleticism to play the NBA 3 spot. Arguably doesn’t have the athleticism nor the length for the 4 spot. The shooting touch will translate. But can he handle the rest of the pro game?

[Stray Gator]

http://cbbref.com/tiny/b1hCr

Amazing. How incredibly fortunate are we as Duke fans to have the pleasure of watching -- and the honor of being represented by -- these immensely talented young men who consistently exhibit a team-first attitude and fine sportsmanship?

[JayZee]

I think Stanley is more likely to leave than Moore because he has NBA athleticism and will look great at the combine and someone will take a chance on him. I know we've talked a lot about his age, that might be a small factor but ultimately it comes down to a.) where each player would be drafted and b.) how much they stand to gain or lose by returning to school. Moore doesn't do any one thing at an elite level, he's a versatile player but not someone who will draw a lot of attention from NBA scouts.

Hurt is kind of a mystery, he's all over the draft boards. I'd say he's 50/50 to go at this point, but I tend to overestimate the likelihood of players coming back.

I would not be surprised either way (stay or go) with Stanley or Hurt. The challenge I see for both of them is that their biggest “faults” are less correctable than say Tre (shooting) or Wendell (decision making and finishing). Stanley is not getting bigger and Hurt is not suddenly getting much more athletic. I’d assume that if they show enough to get a first round guarantee, they’d both go, but if not they’d do a Tre and give it 1 more year.

Wendell on the other hand might be even better served to stay so he got one more year of skill development to maximize both his draft slot and his chance to hit the ground running in the NBA.

[UrinalCake]

Cole Anthony is down to 7 in SI’s latest mock. The injury obviously isn’t his fault, but there is now some questions over how good he really was prior to the injury. If he keeps slipping, I wonder if that motivates him to come back and play in order to restore his preseason top-3 status. There’s still a big difference between being picked #3 versus being picked #7.

On the Duke front, Carey checks in at #21. Nobody else is in the first round.

https://www.si.com/nba/2020/01/07/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman

[SkyBrickey]

Cole Anthony is down to 7 in SI’s latest mock. The injury obviously isn’t his fault, but there is now some questions over how good he really was prior to the injury. If he keeps slipping, I wonder if that motivates him to come back and play in order to restore his preseason top-3 status. There’s still a big difference between being picked #3 versus being picked #7.

On the Duke front, Carey checks in at #21. Nobody else is in the first round.

https://www.si.com/nba/2020/01/07/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman

I think Jeremy Woo is undervaluing both Carey and Hurt. When you're playing limited minutes with so many other talented players, your stats don't reflect your talent and potential. I expect Carey to be a top 15 pick (maybe top 10) and Hurt to be a first rounder when it's all said and done.

[AGDukesky]

Cole Anthony is down to 7 in SI’s latest mock. The injury obviously isn’t his fault, but there is now some questions over how good he really was prior to the injury. If he keeps slipping, I wonder if that motivates him to come back and play in order to restore his preseason top-3 status. There’s still a big difference between being picked #3 versus being picked #7.

On the Duke front, Carey checks in at #21. Nobody else is in the first round.

https://www.si.com/nba/2020/01/07/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman

Although certainly possible, it is hard to imagine a guy returning to school after missing significant time AND being a projected lottery pick. Anthony seems like a guy who wants to get to the league as fast as possible given his lineage. Plus, I’d think he risks showing more shortcomings rather than improving his stock with another year under Roy...

[SkyBrickey]

And what's up with 3 Arizona guys as top 18 picks? Is JW drinking the Zona koolaid or is Sean Miller severely undercoaching his team in a "down year" of college basketball? They are ranked #24.

[CameronBornAndBred]

And what's up with 3 Arizona guys as top 18 picks? Is JW drinking the Zona koolaid or is Sean Miller severely undercoaching his team in a "down year" of college basketball? They are ranked #24.

We've had teams like that. In 2017 we had Giles, Tatum, Jackson and Allen, and were ranked 21st at the end of January. We started the season at #1, finished at #7.

[AGDukesky]

We've had teams like that. In 2017 we had Giles, Tatum, Jackson and Allen, and were ranked 21st at the end of January. We started the season at #1, finished at #7.

Only because of ridiculous injury issues

[arnie]

Although certainly possible, it is hard to imagine a guy returning to school after missing significant time AND being a projected lottery pick. Anthony seems like a guy who wants to get to the league as fast as possible given his lineage. Plus, I’d think he risks showing more shortcomings rather than improving his stock with another year under Roy...

Except his dad wants Cole to get the education he never got😂

[dukelifer]

Cole Anthony is down to 7 in SI’s latest mock. The injury obviously isn’t his fault, but there is now some questions over how good he really was prior to the injury. If he keeps slipping, I wonder if that motivates him to come back and play in order to restore his preseason top-3 status. There’s still a big difference between being picked #3 versus being picked #7.

On the Duke front, Carey checks in at #21. Nobody else is in the first round.

https://www.si.com/nba/2020/01/07/nba-mock-draft-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman

I doubt being at 7 would change his decision. He is a high lottery pick and will make his big money on the second contract. These guys get shoe contracts as well. Yes he loses 4-6M but he could get another knee injury and that will be that. He is going as long as he is in the lottery. He would be smart not to come back to UNC- if he underperforms due to nagging pain or incomplete recovery- he could fall even more. Zion did not have surgery when injured. Anthony has a built in excuse to wait it out.

[Edouble]

I would not be surprised either way (stay or go) with Stanley or Hurt. The challenge I see for both of them is that their biggest “faults” are less correctable than say Tre (shooting) or Wendell (decision making and finishing). Stanley is not getting bigger and Hurt is not suddenly getting much more athletic. I’d assume that if they show enough to get a first round guarantee, they’d both go, but if not they’d do a Tre and give it 1 more year.

Wendell on the other hand might be even better served to stay so he got one more year of skill development to maximize both his draft slot and his chance to hit the ground running in the NBA.

Would be shocked to see any of these players at Duke next year:

Tre
Vernon
Cassius
Matthew

Would be surprised to see these guys:

Joey
Wendell

[hallcity]

Would be shocked to see any of these players at Duke next year:

Tre
Vernon
Cassius
Matthew

Would be surprised to see these guys:

Joey
Wendell


You'll really be surprised if at least six players off this team leave for the NBA after this season? Even if Duke wins a national championship I'm pretty sure you'll end up both shocked and surprised. I won't say how shocked you'll be but I think you're going to be very surprised.

[Truth&Justise]

I would not be surprised either way (stay or go) with Stanley or Hurt. The challenge I see for both of them is that their biggest “faults” are less correctable than say Tre (shooting) or Wendell (decision making and finishing). Stanley is not getting bigger and Hurt is not suddenly getting much more athletic. I’d assume that if they show enough to get a first round guarantee, they’d both go, but if not they’d do a Tre and give it 1 more year.

Wendell on the other hand might be even better served to stay so he got one more year of skill development to maximize both his draft slot and his chance to hit the ground running in the NBA.

Some quibbles with the above in bold--though I agree with your conclusions that either Hurt or Stanley could come back.

Disagree about Hurt's athleticism. Yeah, he won't have a 50" vert in a year, but he can absolutely get stronger, in both upper and lower body, and can get better at sliding his feet quickly on defense. The NBA will love that he's tall and can shoot, but right now he lacks the strength to defend the post, or the quickness to defend the perimeter (at a professional level). More time to work on his body can make a difference there. He might be back, depending on his projections.

For Stanley, I disagree about the bolded part above--he can absolutely get bigger. Strength training is one of the things colleges do well in the offseason. The one thing he can't do is get any younger. And that might push him towards starting his pro career. But I don't think that's a foregone conclusion yet.

[Truth&Justise]

Would be shocked to see any of these players at Duke next year:

Tre
Vernon
Cassius
Matthew

Would be surprised to see these guys:

Joey
Wendell


What exactly has Joey Baker done to make you think he'll leave for the pros this season? He's averaging about 6 points a game, and is still only 19.

[Edouble]

Would be shocked to see any of these players at Duke next year:

Tre
Vernon
Cassius
Matthew

Would be surprised to see these guys:

Joey
Wendell



You'll really be surprised if at least six players off this team leave for the NBA after this season? Even if Duke wins a national championship I'm pretty sure you'll end up both shocked and surprised. I won't say how shocked you'll be but I think you're going to be very surprised.

You are putting words in my mouth. I said I'd be surprised.

Shocked at the first list, with shocked being a high level, extreme reaction.

Surprised at the second list, with surprised being somewhat mild. I would categorize "very surprised" between "shocked" and "surprised" and I would not be very surprised to see Joey or Wendell back, just surprised.


What exactly has Joey Baker done to make you think he'll leave for the pros this season? He's averaging about 6 points a game, and is still only 19.
He's been 6'7" and drained threes.

He has enrolled to play for Coach K, who will welcome 5 Star recruits Jeremy Roach, DJ Stewart, and Jalen Johnson, who (and we can nitpick Duke not playing positions, players having to earn PT in practice etc etc) are slated to play the 1-3 spots in 2020-21, which would leave Joey playing the same role next year.

I expect Joey to continue to hustle on D and try to make it as a 3 and D bench player at the next level. His best chance to shine will be this year, when he's only competing against Alex and Jordan (and Wendell when he's back) for PT. Next year he's still competing against Alex and Jordan, plus new guys and he's a year older and less "valuable" as a draft prospect.

[gam7]

NBAdraft.net 2020 mock draft (https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/), updated today:

Vernon Carey, Jr. (11)
Tre Jones (40)
Cassius Stanley (41)

NBAdraft.net 2021 mock draft (https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/?year-mock=2021), updated today:

Jonathan Kuminga (2) (odd that he is in this mock draft at all considering that he is currently a high school junior)
Jalen Johnson (5)
Wendell Moore (10)

In the NBAdraft.net world, I am a surprised to see Wendell Moore as a 2021 lottery pick, and can't help but think that there is at least a possibility that Tre and/or Cassius will consider coming back in 2021 if they are projected 2nd rounders in 2020. I also look forward to Matthew Hurt's junior year at Duke...

[MChambers]

NBAdraft.net 2020 mock draft (https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/), updated today:

Vernon Carey, Jr. (11)
Tre Jones (40)
Cassius Stanley (41)

NBAdraft.net 2021 mock draft (https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/?year-mock=2021), updated today:

Jonathan Kuminga (2) (odd that he is in this mock draft at all considering that he is currently a high school junior)
Jalen Johnson (5)
Wendell Moore (10)

In the NBAdraft.net world, I am a surprised to see Wendell Moore as a 2021 lottery pick, and can't help but think that there is at least a possibility that Tre and/or Cassius will consider coming back in 2021 if they are projected 2nd rounders in 2020. I also look forward to Matthew Hurt's junior year at Duke...
Odd that Moore would be 2021 #10 pick. If he’s got that much potential, why wouldn’t he be a first rounder this year? NBA drafts on potential.

Easiest for me just to assume that they’re all going as soon as possible.

[luburch]

The Athletic released a new mock this morning ($) (https://theathletic.com/1516593/2020/01/10/vecenie-2020-nba-mock-draft-version-2-0-movement-throughout-board-leads-to-shakeup/)

Carey - 21
Jones - 23
Hurt - 25
Stanley - 48

[Bluedog]

Yes he loses 4-6M but he could get another knee injury and that will be that. He is going as long as he is in the lottery.

I agree but saying the difference between being #3 in 2021 and #7 pick in 2020 is a "loss" of 4-6M is only part of the story because of course going in 2020 affords the player to make an additional years' salary/endorsements which is certainly in the millions. The time value and opportunity cost makes starting the NBA career a year earlier usually the wise move (assuming it's not going to impact their second contract and assuming their NBA "retirement age" would essentially be the same regardless of that decision).

[UrinalCake]

I agree but saying the difference between being #3 in 2021 and #7 pick in 2020 is a "loss" of 4-6M is only part of the story because of course going in 2020 affords the player to make an additional years' salary/endorsements which is certainly in the millions.

I wasn’t clear in my original post - I was referring to his decision of whether or not to return THIS SEASON.

[frb]

The question for Hurt will always be strength/athleticism. He doesn’t have the athleticism to play the NBA 3 spot. Arguably doesn’t have the athleticism nor the length for the 4 spot. The shooting touch will translate. But can he handle the rest of the pro game?

it would be difficult to believe he can handle the NBA ... Kyle Singler was significantly better than Hurt at this stage of the game and he stayed all 4 years and bounced around the NBA. If you can't defend even a little, it's tough to get minutes. I can't see Hurt leaving for the NBA after this season. I don't get the impression he comes from financial hardship of any kind. Another year or 2 would be a wise investment.

Tre gone. Stanley is gone. 20 year old freshman. Super athlete. Could sneak into the first round. Vernon gone. Moore should be back.

we could be loaded in 20/21.....

G- J Roach / J Goldwire
G - A O'Connell / DJ Steward
F - J. Johnson / W Moore / J Baker
F - M Hurt / J Brakefield / H Coleman
C - M Williams / Charles Bediako?

[frb]

I think Jeremy Woo is undervaluing both Carey and Hurt. When you're playing limited minutes with so many other talented players, your stats don't reflect your talent and potential. I expect Carey to be a top 15 pick (maybe top 10) and Hurt to be a first rounder when it's all said and done.

why do you say Hurt is a first rounder? Is he better than Kyle Singler was as a freshman? I think it's an apt comparison.

[UrinalCake]

it would be difficult to believe he can handle the NBA ... Kyle Singler was significantly better than Hurt at this stage of the game and he stayed all 4 years and bounced around the NBA.

I don’t know if I would say SIGNIFICANTLY better, but Singler is an interesting comp. Similar size and level of athleticism. I would also point out that Singler was projected as a first rounder after his freshman year, one could argue that he should have gone then. I really expected him to have a long NBA career as a role player; I wonder how much was just him never being in the right situation roster-wise.

[Edouble]

it would be difficult to believe he can handle the NBA ... Kyle Singler was significantly better than Hurt at this stage of the game and he stayed all 4 years and bounced around the NBA. If you can't defend even a little, it's tough to get minutes. I can't see Hurt leaving for the NBA after this season. I don't get the impression he comes from financial hardship of any kind. Another year or 2 would be a wise investment.

Tre gone. Stanley is gone. 20 year old freshman. Super athlete. Could sneak into the first round. Vernon gone. Moore should be back.

we could be loaded in 20/21...

G- J Roach / J Goldwire
G - A O'Connell / DJ Steward
F - J. Johnson / W Moore / J Baker
F - M Hurt / J Brakefield / H Coleman
C - M Williams / Charles Bediako?

Would be shocked to see Stanley slip out of the first round.

It's one thing to think Hurt should stay, but to say you can't see him leaving... there have been guys that have left for the pros after one year even less prepared than Hurt would be, theoretically. There's a new norm, and guys leave early, even if they're not ready to play in the league, but ready to start being a pro.


why do you say Hurt is a first rounder? Is he better than Kyle Singler was as a freshman? I think it's an apt comparison.

It's a tough comp because it was 12 years ago... pre-Curry. Different times, different league. And Hurt is probably a better 3pt shooter than Kyle was as a frosh, plus a few inches taller.

[sagegrouse]

why do you say Hurt is a first rounder? Is he better than Kyle Singler was as a freshman? I think it's an apt comparison.


I don’t know if I would say SIGNIFICANTLY better, but Singler is an interesting comp. Similar size and level of athleticism. I would also point out that Singler was projected as a first rounder after his freshman year, one could argue that he should have gone then. I really expected him to have a long NBA career as a role player; I wonder how much was just him never being in the right situation roster-wise.

Different kind of players. Kyle Singler was a warrior on the court and was a highly regarded tight end in HS. Matthew is much more a finesse player.

[scottdude8]

I don’t know if I would say SIGNIFICANTLY better, but Singler is an interesting comp. Similar size and level of athleticism. I would also point out that Singler was projected as a first rounder after his freshman year, one could argue that he should have gone then. I really expected him to have a long NBA career as a role player; I wonder how much was just him never being in the right situation roster-wise.

I think the current style of NBA basketball is also playing a role. Big guys who can shoot consistently are obviously en vogue right now. While they were always valued, even 8 years ago when Singler went pro they were more of a luxury than a necessity. Like Ryan Kelly, I think if Singler was entering the draft now he’d be a clear first rounder.

That’s the environment that’ll be influencing Hurt’s decision. The “weak” nature of this draft year could also influence guys who are fringe prospects to declare in the hopes of squeezing into the first round. I think we all agree that Hurt would benefit tremendously from another year in Durham, but we can’t ignore the reality he had a legit chance of being a first rounder, whether we agree with that evaluation or not.

[nmduke2001]

Different kind of players. Kyle Singler was a warrior on the court and was a highly regarded tight end in HS. Matthew is much more a finesse player.

Hurt reminds me much more of Ryan Kelly than he does Kyle Singler.

[Kedsy]

Hurt reminds me much more of Ryan Kelly than he does Kyle Singler.

Hurt and Kelly look similar (tall, gangly, white kid) and their shooting numbers are similar, but at least if you're comparing freshman Matthew to junior/senior Ryan, Kelly was better at pretty much everything other than shooting (e.g., rebounding, passing, defense). I know that's not really fair (comparing a freshman to an upperclassman) but since Matthew Hurt will probably not be an upperclassman at Duke, that's probably all we can do from a comparison standpoint (especially since underclassman Ryan Kelly did not play like an NBA player yet).

[Troublemaker]

Kyle Singler was significantly better than Hurt at this stage of the game and he stayed all 4 years and bounced around the NBA.

Statistically, Hurt probably has a slight edge over frosh Singler:




Usage
% Team's Shots
ORating
OReb%
DReb%
Blk%
Stl%
FT%
2P%
3P%


Matthew
20.8%
25.7%
119.8
9.3%
9.8%
3.3%
1.4%
75.0%
55.6%
41.4%


Kyle
22.1%
23.4%
107.9
7.8%
14.4%
2.3%
2.0%
77.4%
54.5%
34.0%




The have similar roles in terms of usage and the amount of shots taken in the offense.

I've highlighted what I believe to be the major differences. Kyle defensive rebounded much better, and Matt has a higher offensive rating, largely built on being a 41% three-pt shooter as opposed to 34%.

[Troublemaker]

One caveat, though, is that I recall Kyle struggling down the stretch of the season because he was likely fatigued from doing a lot more banging inside; Kyle didn't have a Vernon around.

We'll have to see if skinny Matthew similarly wears down later in the season, although I suspect he's just going to continue to get better. If Kyle were on this team, it's very possible he would've also continued to get better through the end of the season. Teammates and coaching philosophies about the rotation matter.

[CDu]

Hurt reminds me much more of Ryan Kelly than he does Kyle Singler.

Probably a cross between the two. Better ballhandler and pure shooter than Kelly, not as athletic or as physical as Singler.

The problem for Hurt is that he basically plays the same position with comparable athleticism as Kelly... but he is a couple inches shorter and gives up 3-4 inches in standing reach. So he is an undersized 4 in the NBA, and I don’t think he has the athleticism to be a combo forward at the next level.

The shot should translate, as should the smarts. But is that enough to make it as a role player given that defense may be a real problem for him in the NBA?

[kAzE]

Statistically, Hurt probably has a slight edge over frosh Singler:




Usage
% Team's Shots
ORating
OReb%
DReb%
Blk%
Stl%
FT%
2P%
3P%


Matthew
20.8%
25.7%
119.8
9.3%
9.8%
3.3%
1.4%
75.0%
55.6%
41.4%


Kyle
22.1%
23.4%
107.9
7.8%
14.4%
2.3%
2.0%
77.4%
54.5%
34.0%




The have similar roles in terms of usage and the amount of shots taken in the offense.

I've highlighted what I believe to be the major differences. Kyle defensive rebounded much better, and Matt has a higher offensive rating, largely built on being a 41% three-pt shooter as opposed to 34%.

I could be wrong, but didn't Kyle basically play most of his minutes that year at center due to a lack of established bigs on the roster? We had Brian Zoubek on the team, but he came off the bench and played around 10 minutes a game. Kyle and Lance Thomas were the starting front court, and I somewhat recall Kyle being the '5' for the most part, or at least guarding the other team's center.

I just remember being amazed at how tough he was as a freshman, being able to bang with fully grown men in the paint.

[CDu]

One caveat, though, is that I recall Kyle struggling down the stretch of the season because he was likely fatigued from doing a lot more banging inside; Kyle didn't have a Vernon around.

We'll have to see if skinny Matthew similarly wears down later in the season, although I suspect he's just going to continue to get better. If Kyle were on this team, it's very possible he would've also continued to get better through the end of the season. Teammates and coaching philosophies about the rotation matter.

Yeah, it's really hard to compare the two. Singler went from being a perimeter player in high school to playing a fair amount of center as a freshmen (and exclusively PF/C). That was undoubtedly a tougher transition than for Hurt, who is playing basically the same position he played in high school. Singler was also on a less talented team (most notably with a less talented PG, and no help inside). And he played in a different era of college ball in terms of the foul rules. All in all, just an apples to oranges comparison. Not to say that Singler or Hurt was better/worse than the other. Just that it's REALLY hard to compare them quantitatively.

[Edouble]

I could be wrong, but didn't Kyle basically play most of his minutes that year at center due to a lack of established bigs on the roster? We had Brian Zoubek on the team, but he came off the bench and played around 10 minutes a game. Kyle and Lance Thomas were the starting front court, and I somewhat recall Kyle being the '5' for the most part, or at least guarding the other team's center.

I just remember being amazed at how tough he was as a freshman, being able to bang with fully grown men in the paint.

Yes, it can not be understated just how off the charts tough Kyle was as a freshman.

[JayZee]

Different kind of players. Kyle Singler was a warrior on the court and was a highly regarded tight end in HS. Matthew is much more a finesse player.

One word - shooting. Kyle (still one of my absolutely favorite Duke players) just lost his shot, especially his senior year. Matt's high quick release is something special and could be a weapon in the NBA. He clearly needs to get much stronger, but he's big, has a solid base and good defensive instincts.

[CDu]

One word - shooting. Kyle (still one of my absolutely favorite Duke players) just lost his shot, especially his senior year. Matt's high quick release is something special and could be a weapon in the NBA. He clearly needs to get much stronger, but he's big, has a solid base and good defensive instincts.

Minor quibble, but in NBA terms Hurt is not big. He has the same standing reach (8’10”) that Singler has. Basically, he is an undersized PF or a SF at the NBA level.

[SkyBrickey]

One word - shooting. Kyle (still one of my absolutely favorite Duke players) just lost his shot, especially his senior year. Matt's high quick release is something special and could be a weapon in the NBA. He clearly needs to get much stronger, but he's big, has a solid base and good defensive instincts.

This. I think Hurt is tracking to be an elite NBA 3 point shooter. You have to be able to make the shot but you also have to be able to get it off against NBA defenders. I expect the scouts love his quick high release. Potential late first rounder this year but I still there’s a good chance he sticks around. We could really use him next year, hopefully with 10-15 lbs of added muscle.

[Nugget]

The Ringer has a roundup today on how the current rookie glass is doing -- and, outside of Morant, Clarke and Tyler Herro, it's pretty grim for the first rounders.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/1/13/21062904/nba-rookie-player-comps-ja-morant

Some particularly brutal numbers on RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish:

"Of the 120 rookies this century who have attempted enough shots to qualify for the shooting leaderboard, Barrett ranks 117th in TS%. Only Elfrid Payton, Adam Morrison, and Emmanuel Mudiay are worse."

***

"[Reddish] ranks in the second percentile of rookies this century in TS%; he’s shooting 38 percent on 2-pointers and 26 percent on 3s."

[UrinalCake]

Here’s a mock that has Stanley going 27. It’s Bleacher Report so not exactly the most reputable source, and the rest of the mock differs from the general consensus, but I do believe their blurb that NBA scouts are beginning to take notice of Stanley’s potential.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2874545-2020-nba-mock-draft-post-trade-deadline-edition

[WillJ]

The Ringer has a roundup today on how the current rookie glass is doing -- and, outside of Morant, Clarke and Tyler Herro, it's pretty grim for the first rounders.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/1/13/21062904/nba-rookie-player-comps-ja-morant

Some particularly brutal numbers on RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish:

"Of the 120 rookies this century who have attempted enough shots to qualify for the shooting leaderboard, Barrett ranks 117th in TS%. Only Elfrid Payton, Adam Morrison, and Emmanuel Mudiay are worse."

***

"[Reddish] ranks in the second percentile of rookies this century in TS%; he’s shooting 38 percent on 2-pointers and 26 percent on 3s."

I'm a bit worried about both RJ and Cam. They are not good enough on defense to be offensive liabilities.

[devildeac]

Here’s a mock that has Stanley going 27. It’s Bleacher Report so not exactly the most reputable source, and the rest of the mock differs from the general consensus, but I do believe their blurb that NBA scouts are beginning to take notice of Stanley’s potential.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2874545-2020-nba-mock-draft-post-trade-deadline-edition

Interesting to see Tre and Vern at #17 and #18, respectively. And Anthony down to #8. Hopefully, we can drop him a few more notches after today's game and the regular season finale.

[MChambers]

Interesting to see Tre and Vern at #17 and #18, respectively. And Anthony down to #8. Hopefully, we can drop him a few more notches after today's game and the regular season finale.

If we drop him too much, he'll be another of Ol' Roy five star four year players.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie at The Athletic released his latest Mock Draft. I think Vecenie does a good job with his mocks and provides tons of insight about players. He's a little higher on some guys (Tyrese Maxey is #5 - which is wild as he's a scoring guard shooting worse than Tre Jones) and lower on others than me but he's honest about it at the very least. And he clearly talks to NBA guys to do his work.

In his latest mock, he has a quartet of Duke guys in the 1st and 2nd round:

25.. New York Knicks (via LAC): Vernon Carey, Jr.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via DEN): Tre Jones
40. Cassius Stanley (via PHX): Cassius Stanley
42. New Orleans Pelicans: Matthew Hurt

Vecenie has the usual things to write about the Duke players. There are concerns about Carey's abilities to defend but that he has been so productive in 25 minutes a game that it could translate to the NBA. Is Tre Jones capable of being a lead guard or is he destined for a backup role? Is the shooting real with Cassius Stanely? Is Hurt strong enough, with good enough handles, to play in the NBA? Regarding Hurt, Vecenie has a spot on quote:

"I think someone sells themselves on the shooting, but it’s been a weird freshman year in Durham."

[CDu]

"I think someone sells themselves on the shooting, but it’s been a weird freshman year in Durham."

Honestly, I'm not all that shocked by Hurt's freshman year. He looked overmatched in the high school all-star games too. And there were questions of his athleticism and strength that were obvious. So it isn't shocking that he's had trouble staying on the floor this year. That should be the norm for big guys with strength and athleticism questions. See Jon Henson for (an entirely different style but similar problem) example. It can take time for them to find their way.

Now, I wouldn't have been surprised if Hurt had been a star either. Such is the life of guys who are great shooters with poor run/jump athleticism: if they can figure out how to compensate for the athletic limitations, they can make an impact. With Hurt, the issue is that he just hasn't found a way to compete physically with consistency. I think the questions will only get tougher at the next level, where he would be undersized for the PF position, and the size/length, strength, and athleticism of the competition will be much much greater.

I just hope he plays well enough the next month or two that he pushes himself to the back of the first round. That would likely mean good things for our season.

Vecenie's other estimates seem about right: if Carey can show he can score against size and can defend away from the basket, his stock will rise. If not, the NBA is tough on bigs that struggle away from the rim.

With Jones vis-a-vis Maxey, the issue is that Maxey is taller, longer, and much more explosive athletically. And he's considered a better shooter than Jones despite having a lower % on 3s. Mainly because he has historically profiled as a good shooter, and is better from the FT line. With Maxey, you know you can get a lead-guard scorer and multi-position defender. With Jones, he's a one-position guy, and he may be limited at that one position (limited run/jump athleticism raises questions about his defensive prowess at the next level, questionable shooter at a position where you really need shooting). Maxey probably has higher bust potential, but also a much higher ceiling.

[brevity]

25.. New York Knicks (via LAC): Vernon Carey, Jr.
26. Oklahoma City Thunder (via DEN): Tre Jones
40. Cassius Stanley (via PHX): Cassius Stanley
42. New Orleans Pelicans: Matthew Hurt

Wow, even Zion didn't have the power to draft himself! Good for Cassius Stanley to make that trade with Phoenix.

What team did you mean? I'm seeing Sacramento at #40 and Memphis (via PHX) at #41. Either would have a warm welcome for a Duke player.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Wow, even Zion didn't have the power to draft himself! Good for Cassius Stanley to make that trade with Phoenix.

What team did you mean? I'm seeing Sacramento at #40 and Memphis (via PHX) at #41. Either would have a warm welcome for a Duke player.

Oops! Memphis Grizzlies. Vecenie used the standings as of Monday (2/10) to put this list together.

[wsb3]

I didn't want to start a thread for this article that I read yesterday. I thought it was interesting and maybe it fits okay here, with it being about players leaving early for the Pros. Bob Huggins did not hold back about young kids getting bad advice, even at times from their family.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/ncaab/big12/2020/02/12/bob-huggins-vents-players-being-misled-into-turning-pro-early/4735520002/

Quote from the article.

"I don't think that has anything to do whether a guy stays or goes. I think it's the people in their ears," Huggins said. "And the people that really don't care about them but care about themselves and care about trying to make some money off of them, trying to enhance their own lifestyle as opposed to doing what's best for them..."

[flyingdutchdevil]

I didn't want to start a thread for this article that I read yesterday. I thought it was interesting and maybe it fits okay here, with it being about players leaving early for the Pros. Bob Huggins did not hold back about young kids getting bad advice, even at times from their family.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/ncaab/big12/2020/02/12/bob-huggins-vents-players-being-misled-into-turning-pro-early/4735520002/

Quote from the article.

"I don't think that has anything to do whether a guy stays or goes. I think it's the people in their ears," Huggins said. "And the people that really don't care about them but care about themselves and care about trying to make some money off of them, trying to enhance their own lifestyle as opposed to doing what's best for them..."

Tough to disagree with Huggins. I certainly think this has happened at Duke over the last 3-4 years (especially with undrafted players / 2nd round players).

I'd argue Duke has 1 sure fire first rounder this year (Carey, although he could go in the teens or in the late 20s. Neither would surprise me). Every other player is more of a 2nd rounder but has the ability to be a 1st rounder given how bad this draft is.

[English]

Tough to disagree with Huggins. I certainly think this has happened at Duke over the last 3-4 years (especially with undrafted players / 2nd round players).

I'd argue Duke has 1 sure fire first rounder this year (Carey, although he could go in the teens or in the late 20s. Neither would surprise me). Every other player is more of a 2nd rounder but has the ability to be a 1st rounder given how bad this draft is.

If Vern is a sure fire 1st rounder, I'd say Tre Jones is safely in the first round of this weak draft. He's been in the first round of every mock I've seen in the last few months. He's currently 23nd at ESPN's latest mock, which was done about a month ago by Jonathan Givony whose opinion, along with Mike Schmitz', I value.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Tough to disagree with Huggins. I certainly think this has happened at Duke over the last 3-4 years (especially with undrafted players / 2nd round players).

I'd argue Duke has 1 sure fire first rounder this year (Carey, although he could go in the teens or in the late 20s. Neither would surprise me). Every other player is more of a 2nd rounder but has the ability to be a 1st rounder given how bad this draft is.

Duke has had remarkably few players leave early and not find success in the process of getting to the NBA.

Only 2 Duke players have left early and gone in the 2nd round - Frank Jackson and Gary Trent, Jr. Both of those guys got signed to guaranteed contracts and have been NBA players for the majority of their time since leaving Duke. It was not a mistake for them to leave Duke.

Trevon Duval and Marques Bolden went undrafted. Those are the only two Duke players that left with eligibility remaining since Shavlik Randolph in 2006. And both of those guys got a 10-day contract to play in the NBA the next year.

So that's 4 guys that left early and didn't go in the 1st round. Two of those guys are NBA players and play most nights (Frank Jackson less so than Gary Trent, Jr.) and another two guys that got to play in the NBA. During the one-and-done era (2010-11, since Kyrie Irving as this denotes the first "true" one-and-done at Duke), there have been another 34 or so guys that have played in the NBA after leaving Duke. That's a really high success rate if you ask me.

I know it is a common refrain around here that players getting drafted in the 2nd round are destined for the G-League and non-guaranteed contracts. The facts don't bear that out. Most guys drafted early in the 2nd round are getting multi-year deals from the NBA teams that drafted them. I expect that, if Hurt, Stanley, Jones, or Carey fall to the second round, a team is going to give them a guaranteed contract and they are going to playing in the NBA most of their rookie year. Of the first 14 guys selected in the 2nd round of the 2019 NBA draft, all but 3 have played a game in the NBA so far. Of the three, 2 are Euro players still playing in Europe and the third is Bol Bol, a guy that had serious health issues last year. Most of the top 14 2nd rounders have played a dozen or more games so far. There are even rotation guys like Cody Martin with Charlotte and a starter in Eric Paschall with Golden State.

[gam7]

Updated 2020 Mock for NBADraft.net - https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

12. Vernon Carey, Jr.
36. Cassius Stanley
51. Tre Jones

Updated 2020 Mock from Givony - https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/28717055/nba-mock-draft-new-top-10-picks-risers-fallers (behind paywall):

29. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Tre Jones
49. Cassius Stanley

My takeaways:

1. There's still a lot of uncertainty with respect to where the Duke prospects will go.
2. My gut tells me there is no way that Tre goes #51. I think Givony has him pegged in the right general area (give or take 5 picks or so).
3. I also think there is no way Carey goes #29. I think Carey goes between 15-20. If he expects to go #29, I think it's a fair question to ask whether he would come back for a second year.
4. I really don't know what to make of Cassius's draft stock. I haven't seen any mock projecting him in the first round. He's been so good for Duke this year, and is clearly NBA-ready athletically, but for some reason I have trouble visualizing how his game translates to the NBA... I guess I'm not alone.

This is neither here nor there, but I think 2020 Cassius is probably what the coaching staff back in 1994-95 had hoped 1995 Ricky Price would be.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Updated 2020 Mock for NBADraft.net - https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

12. Vernon Carey, Jr.
36. Cassius Stanley
51. Tre Jones

Updated 2020 Mock from Givony - https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/28717055/nba-mock-draft-new-top-10-picks-risers-fallers (behind paywall):

29. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Tre Jones
49. Cassius Stanley

My takeaways:

1. There's still a lot of uncertainty with respect to where the Duke prospects will go.
2. My gut tells me there is no way that Tre goes #51. I think Givony has him pegged in the right general area (give or take 5 picks or so).
3. I also think there is no way Carey goes #29. I think Carey goes between 15-20. If he expects to go #29, I think it's a fair question to ask whether he would come back for a second year.
4. I really don't know what to make of Cassius's draft stock. I haven't seen any mock projecting him in the first round. He's been so good for Duke this year, and is clearly NBA-ready athletically, but for some reason I have trouble visualizing how his game translates to the NBA... I guess I'm not alone.

This is neither here nor there, but I think 2020 Cassius is probably what the coaching staff back in 1994-95 had hoped 1995 Ricky Price would be.

Stanley's stock will skyrocket after we go get a few banners.

[jimsumner]

Well, somebody has to go pro early.

Right now Duke has 14 committed scholarships for next season.

But I do not think this will be a problem.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Updated 2020 Mock for NBADraft.net - https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

12. Vernon Carey, Jr.
36. Cassius Stanley
51. Tre Jones

Updated 2020 Mock from Givony - https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/28717055/nba-mock-draft-new-top-10-picks-risers-fallers (behind paywall):

29. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Tre Jones
49. Cassius Stanley

My takeaways:

1. There's still a lot of uncertainty with respect to where the Duke prospects will go.
2. My gut tells me there is no way that Tre goes #51. I think Givony has him pegged in the right general area (give or take 5 picks or so).
3. I also think there is no way Carey goes #29. I think Carey goes between 15-20. If he expects to go #29, I think it's a fair question to ask whether he would come back for a second year.
4. I really don't know what to make of Cassius's draft stock. I haven't seen any mock projecting him in the first round. He's been so good for Duke this year, and is clearly NBA-ready athletically, but for some reason I have trouble visualizing how his game translates to the NBA... I guess I'm not alone.

This is neither here nor there, but I think 2020 Cassius is probably what the coaching staff back in 1994-95 had hoped 1995 Ricky Price would be.

Ask and ye shall receive. Jonathan Wasserman at Bleacher Report has a new mock draft out today (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2876351-2020-nba-mock-draft-no-1-spot-up-for-grabs-1-month-before-ncaa-tournament#slide13).

17. Tre Jones
26. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Cassius Stanley

I've never really trusted NBADraft.net. I think mid-to-late 1st is the consensus on Tre Jones right now and late 1st is where Vernon Carey, Jr. is slotted. Stanley is creeping up into the early 2nd/late 1st territory on a lot of mock drafts.

[gam7]

Ask and ye shall receive. Jonathan Wasserman at Bleacher Report has a new mock draft out today (https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2876351-2020-nba-mock-draft-no-1-spot-up-for-grabs-1-month-before-ncaa-tournament#slide13).

17. Tre Jones
26. Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Cassius Stanley

I've never really trusted NBADraft.net. I think mid-to-late 1st is the consensus on Tre Jones right now and late 1st is where Vernon Carey, Jr. is slotted. Stanley is creeping up into the early 2nd/late 1st territory on a lot of mock drafts.

Ha, thanks! Truth be told, I don't trust nbadraft.net either. But God help us if we are instead relying on the accuracy of Bleacher Report!

[roywhite]

I wish all these guys well for pro careers, but frankly I like the idea of sophomores Wendell Moore, Jr. and Matthew Hurt playing for Duke in 2020-21. And I'll be happy to see senior guards Jordan Goldwire and Alex O'Connell playing key roles on that team, too.

[arnie]

I wish all these guys well for pro careers, but frankly I like the idea of sophomores Wendell Moore, Jr. and Matthew Hurt playing for Duke in 2020-21. And I'll be happy to see senior guards Jordan Goldwire and Alex O'Connell playing key roles on that team, too.

YES, with the incoming freshmen, O’Connell, Goldwire, Baker, Moore and Hurt we could be deeper than this year and have a great mix of experience and talent. Bit early, but could be Top 5 again with that lineup.

[UrinalCake]

YES, with the incoming freshmen, O’Connell, Goldwire, Baker, Moore and Hurt we could be deeper than this year and have a great mix of experience and talent. Bit early, but could be Top 5 again with that lineup.

We would absolutely be top 5 with that lineup, very possibly #1. I actually think we'd play small ball quite a bit.

Roach / Goldwire
Steward / O'Connell
Moore / Baker
Johnson / Brakefield
Hurt / Williams / Coleman

I'm not sure how good that lineup will be defensively, but nobody is stopping us on offense. The second five would be a competitive team by themselves. We'd have the flexibility to go big with Williams at center, Hurt and Johnson playing up. And from what I've read Johnson could even play point forward. The crazy thing is that this lineup isn't that far-fetched, though obviously we're a long way from those decisions being made.

[arnie]

We would absolutely be top 5 with that lineup, very possibly #1. I actually think we'd play small ball quite a bit.

Roach / Goldwire
Steward / O'Connell
Moore / Baker
Johnson / Brakefield
Hurt / Williams / Coleman

I'm not sure how good that lineup will be defensively, but nobody is stopping us on offense. The second five would be a competitive team by themselves. We'd have the flexibility to go big with Williams at center, Hurt and Johnson playing up. And from what I've read Johnson could even play point forward. The crazy thing is that this lineup isn't that far-fetched, though obviously we're a long way from those decisions being made.
Don’t know about #1. Roy has that locked up with the return of Anthony/Bacot and the rest, coupled with the great Freshman class. And don’t forget emergence of Platek😀

[Indoor66]

Don’t know about #1. Roy has that locked up with the return of Anthony/Bacot and the rest, coupled with the great Freshman class. And don’t forget emergence of Platek😀

Will Anthony be healed by then?

[SkyBrickey]

We would absolutely be top 5 with that lineup, very possibly #1. I actually think we'd play small ball quite a bit.

Roach / Goldwire
Steward / O'Connell
Moore / Baker
Johnson / Brakefield
Hurt / Williams / Coleman

I'm not sure how good that lineup will be defensively, but nobody is stopping us on offense. The second five would be a competitive team by themselves. We'd have the flexibility to go big with Williams at center, Hurt and Johnson playing up. And from what I've read Johnson could even play point forward. The crazy thing is that this lineup isn't that far-fetched, though obviously we're a long way from those decisions being made.

I love this lineup with Hurt + 15 lbs offseason muscle.

[jv001]

We would absolutely be top 5 with that lineup, very possibly #1. I actually think we'd play small ball quite a bit.

Roach / Goldwire
Steward / O'Connell
Moore / Baker
Johnson / Brakefield
Hurt / Williams / Coleman

I'm not sure how good that lineup will be defensively, but nobody is stopping us on offense. The second five would be a competitive team by themselves. We'd have the flexibility to go big with Williams at center, Hurt and Johnson playing up. And from what I've read Johnson could even play point forward. The crazy thing is that this lineup isn't that far-fetched, though obviously we're a long way from those decisions being made.

We know that defense is the #1 priority with the GOAT. Goldwire has really improved his offense this season but I believe he's improved his on the ball defense as well. So with that in mind, I believe a senior Jordan Goldwire will get lots of minutes and may be a starter. Moore has impressed me with his defense as well and will get his minutes. That's a pretty good base for our defense. From what I've heard Steward is pretty much a lock to start from day one, Roach is said to be the real deal as a point guard and Hurt should be bigger and stronger next season(if he does return). I have no idea how good the freshmen are on defense but if they can play Duke's man2man, then we will be looking at another deep bench. Two years in a row. Wow!!!!

GoDuke!

[GGLC]

Yeah, I think Goldwire almost certainly starts over Roach in that scenario (Steward getting the other starting guard spot due to his shooting).

[jv001]

Yeah, I think Goldwire almost certainly starts over Roach in that scenario (Steward getting the other starting guard spot due to his shooting).

We may see a lot of small ball next season. I'm not sold on Jordan as a creator of the offense. I love him as a spot up shooter and for his defense. Those two things will get him minutes. However if Roach is good as advertised, I believe he starts along with Jordan. It's good for discussion but I'm really enjoying this team right now.

GoDuke!

[UrinalCake]

I love this lineup with Hurt + 15 lbs offseason muscle.

Yeah, Hurt at the 5 would require some serious bulking up. But assuming he can hold his own defensively, he would murder it on offense as nobody would be able to match up with him. I don't see Williams playing more than 20 minutes or so per game, so we'll need other options at the 5.

[arnie]

Will Anthony be healed by then?

After he consults with Kyrie, Cole will let us all know 😎

[kAzE]

Yeah, Hurt at the 5 would require some serious bulking up. But assuming he can hold his own defensively, he would murder it on offense as nobody would be able to match up with him. I don't see Williams playing more than 20 minutes or so per game, so we'll need other options at the 5.

I'm really skeptical about Hurt at the 5. He just doesn't play like a big, and his natural tendencies are that of a perimeter player. And there's nothing wrong with that. Although he does have the frame to pack on some more weight, 15 pounds (of muscle) is a pretty huge ask for anyone to add over a period of a few months. There's no point in forcing him to play out of his comfort zone. I could see Jalen Johnson being a small ball 5 before Hurt, to be honest.

If I had to guess, I'd say Williams and Brakefield will play the majority of the minutes at center for this team. Hoping at least one of those guys is much better than anticipated.

[Jaks19]

It appears now that Carey, Tre and Cassius are all likely to be drafted in the 1st round.

Still interesting to see what Hurt elects to do.

[flyingdutchdevil]

It appears now that Carey, Tre and Cassius are all likely to be drafted in the 1st round.

Still interesting to see what Hurt elects to do.

According to....

[Jaks19]

Their names are more frequently on draft boards although not all. I just feel that all 3 will enter the draft

[flyingdutchdevil]

Their names are more frequently on draft boards although not all. I just feel that all 3 will enter the draft

All 3 entering the draft and all 3 getting drafted in the 1st round are two very different things.

Very few mocks have Cassius in the first round. Hope that changes, and I think it will, but he needs to show more elite defending and 3pt shooting.

[scottdude8]

It appears now that Carey, Tre and Cassius are all likely to be drafted in the 1st round.

Still interesting to see what Hurt elects to do.

If you're going to make large, blanket statements like that with such certainty, please provide some links or backup. Otherwise, that's how rumors and speculation can grow legs, and that's what we want to avoid.

As a counterpoint, the most recent mock draft (updated a week ago) at NBADraft.net (https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/) has Carey at the end of the lottery, and Cassius and Tre as mid-second rounders. So outside of Carey, I'd argue there is no consensus as to the draft status of any of our current players.

That said, if any of our guys play their way into clear first round status, that can only mean good things for our prospects in March ;)

[Jaks19]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2874545-2020-nba-mock-draft-post-trade-deadline-edition

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft/

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2020-nba-mock-draft.html

These have Tre and 2 have Cassius. Hurt is one too.

[SavDukeGrad]

Haven’t Wiseman, Cole Anthony, and Isaiah Stewart all really dropped from their original draft projections?

I seem to remember Wiseman as the presumptive no. 1 pick, Anthony top 3-5, and Stewart top 10 and thought to be a better pro prospect than Carey.

I guess I know what has happened to Wiseman and Anthony, although I must admit I am surprised their respective situations have affected their draft stock so much. But what about Stewart? I don’t keep up with Washington at all, although thought I had heard he was having a good year on a not so good team.

[accfanfrom1970]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2874545-2020-nba-mock-draft-post-trade-deadline-edition

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/draft/mock-draft/

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/p/2020-nba-mock-draft.html

These have Tre and 2 have Cassius. Hurt is one too.

Interesting these mock drafts are all over the place with regards to the Duke guys.

Only the two CBS guys have Hurt in the first round (16, 28). Both guys have Tre and Vernon going 1st round but mostly out of the lottery (Tre 19,23. Vernon 10,27), only one guy has Cassius going late 1st round (29).

The NBA draft is the most recently updated (2/23). It has Vernon (23), Cassius (26), Tre 2nd round (55). No sign of Hurt.

The Bleacher Report is the most dated (2/7). It has all three going in the first round (Tre 17, Vernon 18, Cassius 27). No sign of Hurt.

That's a wide range of predictions that can obviously change significantly (see Tyus) over the rest of the season.

[devildeac]

Haven’t Wiseman, Cole Anthony, and Isaiah Stewart all really dropped from their original draft projections?

I seem to remember Wiseman as the presumptive no. 1 pick, Anthony top 3-5, and Stewart top 10 and thought to be a better pro prospect than Carey.

I guess I know what has happened to Wiseman and Anthony, although I must admit I am surprised their respective situations have affected their draft stock so much. But what about Stewart? I don’t keep up with Washington at all, although thought I had heard he was having a good year on a not so good team.


ol roy tanking so he can get a lottery pick and select Cole to return to "u"nc...

:rolleyes:

[flyingdutchdevil]

Haven’t Wiseman, Cole Anthony, and Isaiah Stewart all really dropped from their original draft projections?

I seem to remember Wiseman as the presumptive no. 1 pick, Anthony top 3-5, and Stewart top 10 and thought to be a better pro prospect than Carey.

I guess I know what has happened to Wiseman and Anthony, although I must admit I am surprised their respective situations have affected their draft stock so much. But what about Stewart? I don’t keep up with Washington at all, although thought I had heard he was having a good year on a not so good team.

Anthony has definitely dropped. He lost himself a ton of money coming back to UNC after he injured his knee (or ankle?).

Wiseman is weird. I think it's recency bias (or lack thereof). He's a really nice player.

Isaiah Steward is having plenty of issues adjusting to the college game. Kinda like James McAdoo.

[Nugget]

I guess I know what has happened to Wiseman and Anthony, although I must admit I am surprised their respective situations have affected their draft stock so much. But what about Stewart? I don’t keep up with Washington at all, although thought I had heard he was having a good year on a not so good team.

I'm surprised to see Isiah Stewart falling but not McDaniels. Washington has been terrible but in the games I've seen Stewart has played great and McDaniels (to put it charitably) has not.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Anthony has definitely dropped. He lost himself a ton of money coming back to UNC after he injured his knee (or ankle?).

Wiseman is weird. I think it's recency bias (or lack thereof). He's a really nice player.

Isaiah Steward is having plenty of issues adjusting to the college game. Kinda like James McAdoo.

Spot on here. I think we are going to see Wiseman rise in mock drafts as high as #2 overall as soon as teams get him into workouts and word starts spreading among NBA scouts to the draftniks out there. Wiseman was super productive in his short time in college and was living up to the hype until his past and the NCAA caught up to him.

Anthony is losing money every game he plays. The tape is getting out there and he is not showing to be an effective distributor or lead guard. I don't doubt that he can play in the NBA, but there are others that are rising and showing they can be a lead PG in the NBA while questions for Anthony pile up.

Stewart is an interesting case. He's very productive at Washington. But they play in a 2-3 zone and the team is not playing well at all. There were a lot of comparisons to Wendell Carter, Jr. and WCJ did play the anchor spot in the zone before becoming a plus defender in the NBA. I haven't seen enough of Washington to see what's going on with Stewart and McDaniels.

[CDu]

Isaiah Steward is having plenty of issues adjusting to the college game. Kinda like James McAdoo.

Stewart has very little in common with McAdoo. His FG%, FT%, points per game, rebounds per game, and blocks per game are all substantially better than anything McAdoo ever did in college. So I don’t think it is at all fair to say that he is having issues adjusting to the college game. His stats are actually quite good.

Basically, he is doing about what Carey is doing, minus the 3pt shooting.

[907bluedevils]

Anthony has definitely dropped. He lost himself a ton of money coming back to UNC after he injured his knee (or ankle?).

Wiseman is weird. I think it's recency bias (or lack thereof). He's a really nice player.

Isaiah Steward is having plenty of issues adjusting to the college game. Kinda like James McAdoo.

If averaging 17 and 9 a game is having issues adjusting to the college game, I want Duke to get all the kids that have a hard time adjusting to the college game.

[Billy Dat]

Jonathan Tjarks makes the case for Cassius Stanley as an NBA prospect, based on the fact that he is already playing the role and NBA team would likely ask of him:
https://www.theringer.com/2020/2/27/21155194/nba-draft-2020-wings-josh-green-cassius-stanley

[jv001]

Jonathan Tjarks makes the case for Cassius Stanley as an NBA prospect, based on the fact that he is already playing the role and NBA team would likely ask of him:
https://www.theringer.com/2020/2/27/21155194/nba-draft-2020-wings-josh-green-cassius-stanley

I think Cassius is the player that could get Duke to an elite team. But he just doesn't seem to want to take a leading man role. If he was more like Wendell in wanting to take the shot, he would be an even better player. Cassius is not only a good offensive player, he's a very good defender. I wish our offense was set up for Tre to get him more involved. The only plays that we run for him is the lob pass.

GoDuke!

[kAzE]

I think Cassius is the player that could get Duke to an elite team. But he just doesn't seem to want to take a leading man role. If he was more like Wendell in wanting to take the shot, he would be an even better player. Cassius is not only a good offensive player, he's a very good defender. I wish our offense was set up for Tre to get him more involved. The only plays that we run for him is the lob pass.

GoDuke!

The point Tjarks was trying to make is that Stanley isn't really being used to his full potential at Duke. Duke doesn't have a dominant offensive player who can really run an offense. Tre is at best an average offensive guard (far below average in the NBA), but he's the best we've got with the ball in his hands. There are lots of guys in the NBA who can do that, and the best type of player to surround superstar players are guys who can shoot, play good defense, and don't need to have the ball in their hands on offense to contribute. This is basically what Milwaukee has done with Giannis.

Stanley is an NBA wing with good size and fits that description. Imagine him playing with guys like LeBron, Giannis, or even Zion. First, he'd be getting wide open looks from 3 because of the attention those guys draw when they get in the paint, and second, NBA teams are full of elite shooters, who would space the floor much better than this Duke team can, leaving the paint wide open for Stanley to slash or rim run for lobs.

I do think Stanley will be the best pro of this group of Duke players, but it's not necessarily because he's the most talented guy (Vernon is more talented), but because he's a perfect fit for the modern NBA. Whoever drafts him in the late first round or second round is getting a guy who will play 10-15 years as a strong 3&D role player, with potential for more if he develops his playmaking skills.

Unfortunately for Duke, we need more playmaking, which isn't really a strength for anyone on the team not named Tre Jones (and really, I'd say Tre is good, but not elite. He doesn't have great vision). Stanley would be better if we had more guys who could deliver him the ball in spots where he can just catch and finish.

It's frustrating, because we had way too many playmakers last year, but not enough shooting.

[DukieInBrasil]

I think Cassius is the player that could get Duke to an elite team. But he just doesn't seem to want to take a leading man role. If he was more like Wendell in wanting to take the shot, he would be an even better player. Cassius is not only a good offensive player, he's a very good defender. I wish our offense was set up for Tre to get him more involved. The only plays that we run for him is the lob pass.
GoDuke!
I really dislike the coaching design to put the ball in Moore's hands to create. He's just really, really bad at it. He has a poor a:to for a player tasked with creating. He's especially bad at creating from the dribble, but he's actually pretty effective if he receives the ball while moving. WIth more practice and awareness perhaps he can become a reasonable creator for the offense, but he hasn't developed (at all?) in that regard this year.


Unfortunately for Duke, we need more playmaking, which isn't really a strength for anyone on the team not named Tre Jones (and really, I'd say Tre is good, but not elite. He doesn't have great vision). Stanley would be better if we had more guys who could deliver him the ball in spots where he can just catch and finish.
It's frustrating, because we had way too many playmakers last year, but not enough shooting.

I disagree with the bold. Tre's got great vision and is an elite playmaker, but perhaps not elite at being BOTH a playmaker and a scoring threat. Some of his fast-break passes are spectacular, and he has been much better than any PG since his brother at feeding the post for Duke. Tre has flaws, like every player, but criticizing him for not being elite sounds poor to me.

[roywhite]

I really dislike the coaching design to put the ball in Moore's hands to create. He's just really, really bad at it. He has a poor a:to for a player tasked with creating. He's especially bad at creating from the dribble, but he's actually pretty effective if he receives the ball while moving. WIth more practice and awareness perhaps he can become a reasonable creator for the offense, but he hasn't developed (at all?) in that regard this year.



There's a lot I like about Wendell Moore. Against Wake, he shot well (5-8 FG), shot really well from the line (15-16), had 3 steals and played 40 minutes without fouling out. He's not afraid to make plays near the end of the game, and he's got strength and length. The major downside has been turnovers, and yes, it's been a real problem when he dribbles into a crowd. I can see him as a pro, but he needs to tighten his handle, and work on his shooting. He does make plays, good and bad. He can be a key part of a good tournament run.

As to this thread topic, I don't see him as a good candidate for the 2017 NBA draft. :)

[kAzE]

I disagree with the bold. Tre's got great vision and is an elite playmaker, but perhaps not elite at being BOTH a playmaker and a scoring threat. Some of his fast-break passes are spectacular, and he has been much better than any PG since his brother at feeding the post for Duke. Tre has flaws, like every player, but criticizing him for not being elite sounds poor to me.

Completely disagree . . . Tre's handles are far from elite, and he's way below average for an NBA point guard in terms of quickness and explosiveness. Those are all a huge part of being an elite play maker, which is why I said he's good, but not elite. He's really smart and very keen on details, which helps him be a good decision maker, as well as a good perimeter defender. I'm not criticizing him, he's a great college point guard, definitely the best PG at Duke since Tyus, but he's a backup point guard in the NBA.

Also, feeding the post has nothing to do with vision. It's pretty hard to miss Vernon Carey calling for the ball with his man on his hip in the post. Feeding the post is about accuracy and timing. Missing wide open shooters in transition because you're looking to take a contested pull up 3 is lacking vision.

[jv001]

The point Tjarks was trying to make is that Stanley isn't really being used to his full potential at Duke. Duke doesn't have a dominant offensive player who can really run an offense. Tre is at best an average offensive guard (far below average in the NBA), but he's the best we've got with the ball in his hands. There are lots of guys in the NBA who can do that, and the best type of player to surround superstar players are guys who can shoot, play good defense, and don't need to have the ball in their hands on offense to contribute. This is basically what Milwaukee has done with Giannis.

Stanley is an NBA wing with good size and fits that description. Imagine him playing with guys like LeBron, Giannis, or even Zion. First, he'd be getting wide open looks from 3 because of the attention those guys draw when they get in the paint, and second, NBA teams are full of elite shooters, who would space the floor much better than this Duke team can, leaving the paint wide open for Stanley to slash or rim run for lobs.

I do think Stanley will be the best pro of this group of Duke players, but it's not necessarily because he's the most talented guy (Vernon is more talented), but because he's a perfect fit for the modern NBA. Whoever drafts him in the late first round or second round is getting a guy who will play 10-15 years as a strong 3&D role player, with potential for more if he develops his playmaking skills.

Unfortunately for Duke, we need more playmaking, which isn't really a strength for anyone on the team not named Tre Jones (and really, I'd say Tre is good, but not elite. He doesn't have great vision). Stanley would be better if we had more guys who could deliver him the ball in spots where he can just catch and finish.

It's frustrating, because we had way too many playmakers last year, but not enough shooting.

I agree with everything you posted but the bolded. I don't think Vernon is more talented because of his defense. He has a hard time with the PNR in college and he will have an even harder time in the NBA. He has a great college low post game but that will not translate to the pros. He was a perimeter player in high school but I don't think he's quick enough to play the perimeter in the NBA. I think Cassius is the best all-around player for Duke and he will be the best NBA player on this Duke team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurt be the 2nd best if he returns to Duke bigger and stronger his sophomore season. I don't think the G league would benefit him as much as another year at Duke. As for Moore, I know another year at Duke would help him. Tre will be a good backup point guard in the NBA.

GoDuke!

[wsb3]

He has a great college low post game but that will not translate to the pros. He was a perimeter player in high school but I don't think he's quick enough to play the perimeter in the NBA. I think Cassius is the best all-around player for Duke and he will be the best NBA player on this Duke team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurt be the 2nd best if he returns to Duke bigger and stronger his sophomore season. I don't think the G league would benefit him as much as another year at Duke. As for Moore, I know another year at Duke would help him. Tre will be a good backup point guard in the NBA.

GoDuke!

I think you are right and I have thought the same about Carey. I would love to be proven wrong. From the beginning of this season I have thought Cassius has the most upside as a pro.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I really dislike the coaching design to put the ball in Moore's hands to create. He's just really, really bad at it. He has a poor a:to for a player tasked with creating. He's especially bad at creating from the dribble, but he's actually pretty effective if he receives the ball while moving. WIth more practice and awareness perhaps he can become a reasonable creator for the offense, but he hasn't developed (at all?) in that regard this year.



I disagree with the bold. Tre's got great vision and is an elite playmaker, but perhaps not elite at being BOTH a playmaker and a scoring threat. Some of his fast-break passes are spectacular, and he has been much better than any PG since his brother at feeding the post for Duke. Tre has flaws, like every player, but criticizing him for not being elite sounds poor to me.

Tre is elite for a college PG. He's a really good distributor with a 2.3 A:TO ratio. As a scorer, Tre is very good, but nowhere near elite. He is still mediocre at 3s with 33% 3pt shooting. His 2pt shooting has gone down from last year, but that's because he's hunting his shot a lot more.

But this is the NBA we're talking about, not college. In the NBA, Tre's strengths aren't going to be strengths. Tre's really good D in college will be a massive liability in the NBA. In college, Tre gets burned by fast PGs. You know who's faster than college PGs? NBA PGs. Also, Tre is great at moving his feet but has very little bulk. A beefy PG like Eric Bledsoe will feast on that everyday and twice on Sunday. Also, Tre's shooting is very subpar. He's getting better, but it's a clear NBA weakness right now. And if you're in the NBA, defense and shooting are two of the basics you really need to lock down if you're not elite at something.

[jv001]

Tre is elite for a college PG. He's a really good distributor with a 2.3 A:TO ratio. As a scorer, Tre is very good, but nowhere near elite. He is still mediocre at 3s with 33% 3pt shooting. His 2pt shooting has gone down from last year, but that's because he's hunting his shot a lot more.

But this is the NBA we're talking about, not college. In the NBA, Tre's strengths aren't going to be strengths. Tre's really good D in college will be a massive liability in the NBA. In college, Tre gets burned by fast PGs. You know who's faster than college PGs? NBA PGs. Also, Tre is great at moving his feet but has very little bulk. A beefy PG like Eric Bledsoe will feast on that everyday and twice on Sunday. Also, Tre's shooting is very subpar. He's getting better, but it's a clear NBA weakness right now. And if you're in the NBA, defense and shooting are two of the basics you really need to lock down if you're not elite at something.

Tre finishes at the hoop pretty well in college but he won't be able to that as well in the NBA. He really needs to improve his outside shot to have a chance to start or even play meaningful minutes in the pros.

GoDuke!

[Steven43]

Tre's really good D in college will be a massive liability in the NBA. In college, Tre gets burned by fast PGs.

I’m a bit confused by your comments here. On the one hand you say Tre plays “really good D”, but then you say he “gets burned by fast PGs”. Aren’t most PGs fast?

Truly not a criticism; just looking for clarification.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I’m a bit confused by your comments here. On the one hand you say Tre plays “really good D”, but then you say he “gets burned by fast PGs”. Aren’t most PGs fast?

Truly not a criticism; just looking for clarification.

I suspect he is referring to the fact that ALL NBA guards are faster than all but the top five percent of NCAA point guards.

I agree, Jones will have to improve, but so will almost everyone going to the next level.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I’m a bit confused by your comments here. On the one hand you say Tre plays “really good D”, but then you say he “gets burned by fast PGs”. Aren’t most PGs fast?

Truly not a criticism; just looking for clarification.

No- not all college PGs are that fast. The really fast ones, like Devon Dotson, Markell Johnson, etc can get around Tre. That said, these players can get around most PGs. But if Tre wants to hold his NBA hat on his D, he needs to stay in front of quick PGs.

Tre's D is based on quick footwork and active hands. But if that quick footwork is up against an extremely quick PG, Tre has problems keeping in front.

[Jaks19]

This is an interesting discussion. There are so many factors that go into being a good 1v1 defender. speed, agility, lateral movement, anticipation, knowing where you are on the floor, position of your teammates, what type of team defending is being applied, etc...

In Tre's case, his defending has been solid for the most part and it is something that he makes a priority. With that said, he is spending a lot of energy offensively and to put in the work to defend, he is just wearing down. Fatigue both mentally and physically play a big part in defending. All players will get beat off the bounce, but there's where you have to rely on team defending to have a second defender come and the rest of the team recover too positionally. Look at the UNC game, Tre was the reason Duke won that game but honestly, Cole Anthony had a pretty good game too. Good players will compete and at times win in their one on one situations. So in fairness to Tre, if his defending is good 90% of the time, the other 10%, he is getting beat which also could mean pts for the other team.

Tre is not a finished product as a PG but he is a good fit as the PG at Duke. He will need to make adjustments to transition into the NBA. His physical intangibles aren't as NBA coveted as say Tre Duval. So will be he be a good pro or how his career progresses is going to be fun to watch.

[jv001]

This is an interesting discussion. There are so many factors that go into being a good 1v1 defender. speed, agility, lateral movement, anticipation, knowing where you are on the floor, position of your teammates, what type of team defending is being applied, etc...

In Tre's case, his defending has been solid for the most part and it is something that he makes a priority. With that said, he is spending a lot of energy offensively and to put in the work to defend, he is just wearing down. Fatigue both mentally and physically play a big part in defending. All players will get beat off the bounce, but there's where you have to rely on team defending to have a second defender come and the rest of the team recover too positionally. Look at the UNC game, Tre was the reason Duke won that game but honestly, Cole Anthony had a pretty good game too. Good players will compete and at times win in their one on one situations. So in fairness to Tre, if his defending is good 90% of the time, the other 10%, he is getting beat which also could mean pts for the other team.

Tre is not a finished product as a PG but he is a good fit as the PG at Duke. He will need to make adjustments to transition into the NBA. His physical intangibles aren't as NBA coveted as say Tre Duval. So will be he be a good pro or how his career progresses is going to be fun to watch.

But Tre Jones is a much better shooter than Tre Duval. However Duval is faster and quicker than Jones. I agree with the defensive part of the Tre vs. Tre post.

GoDuke!

[Natty_B]

The Athletic has their top 100 draft prospects ranked today:

24. Jones
26. Carey
42. Stanley
43. Hurt

[English]

No- not all college PGs are that fast. The really fast ones, like Devon Dotson, Markell Johnson, etc can get around Tre. That said, these players can get around most PGs. But if Tre wants to hold his NBA hat on his D, he needs to stay in front of quick PGs.

Tre's D is based on quick footwork and active hands. But if that quick footwork is up against an extremely quick PG, Tre has problems keeping in front.

Minor quibble, but Dotson had 6 turnovers against Duke/Tre and a TOV% of 32+%...I haven't gone back to watch that game, but I'd say Tre's defense on really fast Devon Dotson was just fine. Your bigger point about defending really fast NBA PGs certainly stands, but as you noted, those guys are really hard to guard for anyone, including top-notch NBA defenders.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The Athletic has their top 100 draft prospects ranked today:

24. Jones
26. Carey
42. Stanley
43. Hurt

Being more of a college ball fan than the NBA, I would have Stanley and Carey higher, Jones lower. I hope a list like this would encourage all four to think long and hard about a return. When Duke players leave early and end up in the second round, it feels like everyone loses.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Being more of a college ball fan than the NBA, I would have Stanley and Carey higher, Jones lower. I hope a list like this would encourage all four to think long and hard about a return. When Duke players leave early and end up in the second round, it feels like everyone loses.

I'm still shocked Hurt is listed as 2020. To me, the kid hasn't warranted much of a second round draft pick. Right now, he's a solid shooter. But everything else - rebounds, assists, defense, intangibles - is clearly a work-in-progress. Given Duke recruits' perception that Duke is a prime OAD destination (this is not a criticism but rather fact), I wouldn't be surprised if Hurt left but would be disappointed.

[Jaks19]

Hurt to me is the reason some players, highly ranked, need to go to college and assess their overall games. Hurt as a top player in the class was able to display his offensive skills and shooting abilities. There is no doubting his talent and those talents being coveted by the modern day NBA. Now with that said, there are pasty of his game that he needs to improve on and that's no secret to us, the fans, NBA scouts, the Duke staff or any opposing coaching staff, BUT the real question is... where does he think he can improve those areas the most? NBA/G-League or Duke?

Like many of you, if Hurt comes back, he would be the focal point of offense but it also causes the staff to look at the line up:
1. Williams, Hurt, Johnson, Moore and Roach: Both Hurt and Johnson aren't known for their defending and aren't as agile or athletic as other players in the ACC. Additionally, where would the scoring come from besides for Hurt.
2. Hurt, Johnson, Moore, Steward, and Roach: Stewart adds both the ability to score and the willingness to defend, but Hurt at the 5 might be an issues to keep him on the floor and to not to be pushed around in the paint.
3. Williams, Hurt, Johnson, Stewart and Roach: adds another scorer to the unit but again there is the defending of Johnson and Hurt.

Not sure there is a lineup that works were Duke presents a starting 5 that are threats to score and are able to be a good defensive team.

[JasonEvans]

SI's new list of its top 80 draft prospects (https://www.si.com/nba/2020/03/03/nba-draft-big-board-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman):

1. Anthony Edwards, UGA
2. James Wiseman, not playing
3. LaMelo Ball, foreign
4. Tyrese Halliburton, Iowa St - highest I have seen him by a lot
5. Isaac Okoro, Auburn
6. Deni Avdija, Maccabi Tel Aviv
7. Tyrese Maxey, Kentucky - this continues to mystify me, but it shows how weak this draft is
...
14. Devil Vassell, FSU - highest ACC player on the list
15. Cole Anthony, UNC - coming back from injury seems to have really hurt his stock
17. Patrick Williams, FSU
28. David Johnson, Lou
31. Jordan Nwora, Lou
33. Vernon Carey, Duke
38. Cassius Stanley, Duke
39. Cassius Winston, MSU
43. Udoka Azubuike, Kansas
49. Tre Jones, Duke
69. Wendell Moore, Duke
74. Elijah Hughes, Syr

-Jason "not to be confused with a mock draft, but this is a terrible list for current Duke players hoping to make it into the NBA draft this summer" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

SI's new list of its top 80 draft prospects (https://www.si.com/nba/2020/03/03/nba-draft-big-board-anthony-edwards-lamelo-ball-james-wiseman):

1. Anthony Edwards, UGA
2. James Wiseman, not playing
3. LaMelo Ball, foreign
4. Tyrese Halliburton, Iowa St - highest I have seen him by a lot
5. Isaac Okoro, Auburn
6. Deni Avdija, Maccabi Tel Aviv
7. Tyrese Maxey, Kentucky - this continues to mystify me, but it shows how weak this draft is
...
14. Devil Vassell, FSU - highest ACC player on the list
15. Cole Anthony, UNC - coming back from injury seems to have really hurt his stock
17. Patrick Williams, FSU
28. David Johnson, Lou
31. Jordan Nwora, Lou
33. Vernon Carey, Duke
38. Cassius Stanley, Duke
39. Cassius Winston, MSU
43. Udoka Azubuike, Kansas
49. Tre Jones, Duke
69. Wendell Moore, Duke
74. Elijah Hughes, Syr

-Jason "not to be confused with a mock draft, but this is a terrible list for current Duke players hoping to make it into the NBA draft this summer" Evans

Once the smoke clears, I'm pretty sure teams looking for defense and 3pt shooting will look closely at Stanley. He strikes me as the kind of prospect Milwaukee or the Raptors would draft: can play right away and not need the ball in his hands to be effective.

Carey is interesting. Great offensive player with fantastic hands, but he's slow, can't really prospect the rim, and has a spotty 3pt shot. He should be drafted, but sadly these players aren't a commodity in the NBA. I too believe he'll be a first round pick at the end of the day, because he can provide decent minutes at the 5 and he's still young and learning.

Tre is interesting. I don't think he's first round material, mainly because I don't think he's elite at anything. He's a good defender, good distributor, and good leader, but he's an inefficient scorer with a bad 3pt shot. And that 3pt shot is the primary reason Tyus got drafted (41% in conference play).

[scottdude8]

Once the smoke clears, I'm pretty sure teams looking for defense and 3pt shooting will look closely at Stanley. He strikes me as the kind of prospect Milwaukee or the Raptors would draft: can play right away and not need the ball in his hands to be effective.

Carey is interesting. Great offensive player with fantastic hands, but he's slow, can't really prospect the rim, and has a spotty 3pt shot. He should be drafted, but sadly these players aren't a commodity in the NBA. I too believe he'll be a first round pick at the end of the day, because he can provide decent minutes at the 5 and he's still young and learning.

Tre is interesting. I don't think he's first round material, mainly because I don't think he's elite at anything. He's a good defender, good distributor, and good leader, but he's an inefficient scorer with a bad 3pt shot. And that 3pt shot is the primary reason Tyus got drafted (41% in conference play).

One of the most underrated aphorisms commonly espoused by Coach K is that most players in the NBA are role players. If you're drafting late in the first round and can nab a guy who can fill a role, especially considering those teams are usually contenders, you've done a good job.

Carey may never be a go-to, starting center in the modern NBA. But there is still a role for players of his type off the bench, and to play an expanded role in certain matchups. If a team is drafting him expecting a franchise-redefining star, they may be disappointed. If they are expecting a solid contributor who plays the role of big man off the bench, I'm confident he can/will do that.

Stanley finds himself in a similar situation. He doesn't project as a star, but he certainly has the makings of a key rotation piece. Going to a team like the Raptors late in the first round would be very feasible and make a lot of sense.

Tre is the guy whose projections are most concerning for me. He's improved in most of the areas that teams wanted to see (FT shooting, 3 point shooting, ability to create his own bucket), but apparently not enough to get on the first round radar. Being a "classic", true PG may be one of the hardest paths into the modern NBA, since a guy like Tre really can't play at any other position unless he significantly improves his shooting. I think that's the reason that a lot of star college point guards end up staying in school a lot longer than similar caliber recruits at other positions (think of Cassius Winston, a top 30 caliber recruit who is now a senior). I also think that PG is a position that, being so cerebral, players may develop more in the collegiate level with hands on coaching and in a competitive environment than in, say, the current incarnation of the G-League. All of these factors will make Tre's decision very interesting, and potentially all the more so when we consider we have Roach coming in (although I haven't followed him closely enough to know whether he's projected as a one-and-done caliber guy who might bristle at backing up Tre for a year). Hopefully Tre dominates all of March on his way to a National Title and clear first round status and puts this all to rest though ;)

[BlueDevil16]

Know it depends on how the season finishes, but who are we actually expecting to likely leave?

Vernon - 95% gone
Cassius - 90% gone
Tre - 80% gone
Hurt - 50% gone
Moore - 30% gone

Suppose I could see Alex or Joey leave to try and get minutes at another school but couldn’t see them going to the draft. I’d imagine JGold will stay.

[arnie]

Know it depends on how the season finishes, but who are we actually expecting to likely leave?

Vernon - 95% gone
Cassius - 90% gone
Tre - 80% gone
Hurt - 50% gone
Moore - 30% gone

Suppose I could see Alex or Joey leave to try and get minutes at another school but couldn’t see them going to the draft. I’d imagine JGold will stay.
K stated this was Tre’s last game in Cameron - he’s 99.9%; Carey same %
If Hurt is 50%; what is the other 50% option for him???

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Know it depends on how the season finishes, but who are we actually expecting to likely leave?

Vernon - 95% gone
Cassius - 90% gone
Tre - 80% gone
Hurt - 50% gone
Moore - 30% gone

Suppose I could see Alex or Joey leave to try and get minutes at another school but couldn’t see them going to the draft. I’d imagine JGold will stay.

This is borderline rumor mongering. Be careful, the mods historically don't look kindly on hypotheticals when it comes to transfers.

[MarkD83]

I know this is a projections thread and it is meant to be forward looking but...

Enjoy today!!!! GTHC 9F

Thank you Mr Robinson!!!

[BlueDevil16]

This is borderline rumor mongering. Be careful, the mods historically don't look kindly on hypotheticals when it comes to transfers.

Never said they would, just could see them being unhappy with their roles

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Never said they would, just could see them being unhappy with their roles

And I am not a mod. Just letting you know that casual discussion of unannounced transfers has historically been quickly shut down.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Know it depends on how the season finishes, but who are we actually expecting to likely leave?

Vernon - 95% gone
Cassius - 90% gone
Tre - 80% gone
Hurt - 50% gone
Moore - 30% gone

Suppose I could see Alex or Joey leave to try and get minutes at another school but couldn’t see them going to the draft. I’d imagine JGold will stay.

I think this is more or less accurate. Duke fans should expect to see Carey, Jones, and Stanley in the NBA Draft. Hurt and Moore should go through the process of getting NBA feedback, much like Bolden and DeLaurier did last year. If both return, I really like's Duke's roster next year. If one returns, I like Duke's roster.

It would be a surprise to me if either O'Connell or Baker left Duke before next season. Goldwire and Robinson are examples of the willingness Coach K and the staff have to play experienced guys. Playing time can be earned for either or both of O'Connell and Baker. And they both seem to love being Blue Devils. I hope they take advantage.

[Furniture]

Someone could look at the stats on this but at least recently there could be an argument to make that the NBA chances of a role player are BETTER staying at Duke with less playing time vs leaving for more. I can only think of Semi as one transfer that has done well.

[Kedsy]

Someone could look at the stats on this but at least recently there could be an argument to make that the NBA chances of a role player are BETTER staying at Duke with less playing time vs leaving for more. I can only think of Semi as one transfer that has done well.

Michael Gbinije?

[jimsumner]

Michael Gbinije?

And Elliott Williams/

[flyingdutchdevil]

And Elliott Williams/

Gbinije played 1 season in the NBA and can’t get back in. Williams had 2 solid seasons and digressed.

If this is ‘making it’, not sure what you’d call Semi. A ‘superstar’?

[jimsumner]

Gbinije played 1 season in the NBA and can’t get back in. Williams had 2 solid seasons and digressed.

If this is ‘making it’, not sure what you’d call Semi. A ‘superstar’?

Williams was the 22nd pick in the 2010 draft. He was a rotation player for Philadelphia when he suffered a significant Achilles injury.

Silly Williams. Had he stayed at Duke he would never have been injured in the pros.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Williams was the 22nd pick in the 2010 draft. He was a rotation player for Philadelphia when he suffered a significant Achilles injury.

Silly Williams. Had he stayed at Duke he would never have been injured in the pros.

Not arguing that At all. Arguing he didn’t have a good NBA career, even prior to injuries

But thanks for putting words in my mouth!

[Furniture]

Gbinije played 1 season in the NBA and can’t get back in. Williams had 2 solid seasons and digressed.

If this is ‘making it’, not sure what you’d call Semi. A ‘superstar’?

Semi has earned 4 Million bucks so far. Meh....

[jimsumner]

Not arguing that At all. Arguing he didn’t have a good NBA career, even prior to injuries

But thanks for putting words in my mouth!

Saying his career "digressed" suggests some defects in his game, to me at least. Your mileage may vary but the overall point was that transferring from Duke somehow hindered one's NBA development and that clearly was not the case in this circumstance.

[Channing]

General consensus seems to be that Tre is a second round pick (at least at this point), meaning his path forward is more likely to look like QC's, Seth's, LT's than Zion's, Jayson's, and Ingram's. Tre also seems to be situated as one of the few players in the last 15 years (since JJ and Sheldon) to have a legitimate shot of having his number retired (the other one's that come to mind are Singler, Grayson, Nolan and MP2, none of which got there). With the NBA not being a certainty, I wonder (selfishly hope) Tre has some advisors reminding him that winning a championship is a big deal, but having your number retired in CIS is immortality. Tre's path to the NBA is what it is, whether it is now or in two years. I guess the injury risk is ever present, but with just a second round pick, he is probably in a worse place if he blows out a knew in the G league than if he does at Duke.

Also, VC seems to correlate to the Morris twins which is not a bad place to be. Perhpas you could say he also correlates to Thomas Robinson, but I'll stick with the former. We know that VC has the stroke to shoot threes, he just needs to get more consistent. I think he has a very promising career ahead of him.

[Adaephon]

Also, VC seems to correlate to the Morris twins which is not a bad place to be. Perhpas you could say he also correlates to Thomas Robinson, but I'll stick with the former. We know that VC has the stroke to shoot threes, he just needs to get more consistent. I think he has a very promising career ahead of him.

I don't see Carey as being like the Morris twins much at all. Especially Marcus. Vernon is not nearly as mobile, has a much slower shooting stroke, and has a much worse handle. I imagine he can become an okay shooter in the pros, but he has a lot of work to do because he spreads his feet out quite a bit to create a wide base before going up. That has to change. He is a 5 for sure while the Morris twins are mostly 4s.

[Channing]

I don't see Carey as being like the Morris twins much at all. Especially Marcus. Vernon is not nearly as mobile, has a much slower shooting stroke, and has a much worse handle. I imagine he can become an okay shooter in the pros, but he has a lot of work to do because he spreads his feet out quite a bit to create a wide base before going up. That has to change. He is a 5 for sure while the Morris twins are mostly 4s.

Are you comparing VC to the Morris twins as they are today ... several years into their career ... or as they were at KU, where they were generally big guys who could run the court and had a decent midrange game and would step outside to the tune of mid-30%s or so?

[kAzE]

I don't see Carey as being like the Morris twins much at all. Especially Marcus. Vernon is not nearly as mobile, has a much slower shooting stroke, and has a much worse handle. I imagine he can become an okay shooter in the pros, but he has a lot of work to do because he spreads his feet out quite a bit to create a wide base before going up. That has to change. He is a 5 for sure while the Morris twins are mostly 4s.

Also, the Morris twins have a reputation as extremely tough and versatile defenders. Vernon will probably never be a great defender in the NBA, which is why I suspect he is so low on many draft boards.

I see Vernon as a smaller but more skilled version of Jahlil Okafor, who basically doesn't play for the Pelicans. Post scoring bigs just aren't a staple in the NBA anymore, especially if they can't defend. You have to be incredibly dominant in the post to be considered an efficient option on offense.

[scottdude8]

One thing I don't think we have to worry about when it comes to Tre are "bad apples" in his ear influencing his decision. Heck, he's seen first hand the challenges his big bro has faced, but also seen him come out on top (his recent 3 year, 28 million dollar contract is pretty darn impressive given how worried we all were about his NBA future this time 5 years ago).

If Tre leaves, I have to imagine its because he's eyeing being a late first/early second round pick. In that range teams, oftentimes contenders, are looking for solid rotation pieces, not stars, and that's what I think Tre projects as. I could envision a team like Toronto, which has a track record hitting on picks in this range and doing so with high-character type guys, jumping at the chance to grab Tre and slowly develop him to potentially become the second string PG behind Fred VanVleet when Kyle Lowry's time is up. That would be a great situation for Tre.

It's all about the expectation game with these guys, both from the player's perspective and the team's. If Tre knows he's looking at a late first/early second round pick, is comfortable being a role player in the NBA, and goes to a team who has similar expectations for him, there's all the reason to believe he could have a very successful NBA career.

Again, though, I think we'd all prefer if he just goes en fuego this March and cements himself as a clear first rounder, since that would mean big things for the team too ;)

[Troublemaker]

General consensus seems to be that Tre is a second round pick (at least at this point), meaning his path forward is more likely to look like QC's, Seth's, LT's than Zion's, Jayson's, and Ingram's. Tre also seems to be situated as one of the few players in the last 15 years (since JJ and Sheldon) to have a legitimate shot of having his number retired (the other one's that come to mind are Singler, Grayson, Nolan and MP2, none of which got there). With the NBA not being a certainty, I wonder (selfishly hope) Tre has some advisors reminding him that winning a championship is a big deal, but having your number retired in CIS is immortality. Tre's path to the NBA is what it is, whether it is now or in two years. I guess the injury risk is ever present, but with just a second round pick, he is probably in a worse place if he blows out a knew in the G league than if he does at Duke.

Also, VC seems to correlate to the Morris twins which is not a bad place to be. Perhpas you could say he also correlates to Thomas Robinson, but I'll stick with the former. We know that VC has the stroke to shoot threes, he just needs to get more consistent. I think he has a very promising career ahead of him.

I think Tre will be a late first-rounder because he's a good FT shooter, and his 3-pt shooting did make a leap from freshman year. This, in addition to his already well-known defense and decision-making will get him into the first. Teams in that area will be like, "Worst case, this is a very solid backup PG. A rotation player."

But even if Tre is projected second-round, I wouldn't hold out any hope that he returns.

[JasonEvans]

But even if Tre is projected second-round, I wouldn't hold out any hope that he returns.

I feel like K or someone connected to the program made a comment about Saturday being Tre's last game in Cameron. I would rate him as at least 95% to head to the draft... and as others have noted it would be really nice if that went to 100?% because he was part of a deep run in March.

[MarkD83]

I feel like K or someone connected to the program made a comment about Saturday being Tre's last game in Cameron. I would rate him as at least 95% to head to the draft... and as others have noted it would be really nice if that went to 100?% because he was part of a deep run in March.

If you pay attention to the little signs...Tre went out of his way to get a hug from coach K at the end of the unc game before getting in the handshake line. So 95% becomes 96.7%

[flyingdutchdevil]

One thing I don't think we have to worry about when it comes to Tre are "bad apples" in his ear influencing his decision. Heck, he's seen first hand the challenges his big bro has faced, but also seen him come out on top (his recent 3 year, 28 million dollar contract is pretty darn impressive given how worried we all were about his NBA future this time 5 years ago).

If Tre leaves, I have to imagine its because he's eyeing being a late first/early second round pick. In that range teams, oftentimes contenders, are looking for solid rotation pieces, not stars, and that's what I think Tre projects as. I could envision a team like Toronto, which has a track record hitting on picks in this range and doing so with high-character type guys, jumping at the chance to grab Tre and slowly develop him to potentially become the second string PG behind Fred VanVleet when Kyle Lowry's time is up. That would be a great situation for Tre.

It's all about the expectation game with these guys, both from the player's perspective and the team's. If Tre knows he's looking at a late first/early second round pick, is comfortable being a role player in the NBA, and goes to a team who has similar expectations for him, there's all the reason to believe he could have a very successful NBA career.

Again, though, I think we'd all prefer if he just goes en fuego this March and cements himself as a clear first rounder, since that would mean big things for the team too ;)

Raise your hand if you thought Tyus would have the most successful NBA career amongst Jah, Winslow, Grayson, and Tyus? Not saying Tyus is more successful than Winslow, but Winslow has a horrible injury history. Jah can't play a lick of defense and Grayson is getting better but still well below Tyus and Winslow.

[Steven43]

If Tre knows he's looking at a late first/early second round pick, is comfortable being a role player in the NBA, and goes to a team who has similar expectations for him, there's all the reason to believe he could have a very successful NBA career.

Again, though, I think we'd all prefer if he just goes en fuego this March and cements himself as a clear first rounder, since that would mean big things for the team too ;)

Some have compared Tre Jones’s chances of making it in the NBA to that of Quinn Cook and Seth Curry. The thing is, those two guys had a more consistent, reliable shooting form while at Duke than does Tre. I’m not sure what it is about Tre’s jumper, but it often looks like the ball is barely going to reach the rim, like he’s not able to put enough on it. I think he needs to alter his form fairly significantly if he’s going to be able to consistently make 3-pt shots from NBA range.

He reminds me of the old school PGs who rarely looked for their own shot from outside, as shooting jumpshots was far down their list of priorities. Tre clearly has a pass-first, set-up-my-teammates mentality. I happen to love that type of PG, but, unfortunately, the modern NBA does not.

[JasonEvans]

Raise your hand if you thought Tyus would have the most successful NBA career amongst Jah, Winslow, Grayson, and Tyus? Not saying Tyus is more successful than Winslow, but Winslow has a horrible injury history. Jah can't play a lick of defense and Grayson is getting better but still well below Tyus and Winslow.

Lead Duke to a title and your NBA career is disappointing. Is this a thing?

You mentioned the 4 most prominent guys from the 2015 team who have not exactly lit the league on fire (though both QCook and Amile have made more NBA bucks than most of us might have imagined).

The 2010 squad was built around Nolan, Singler, Scheyer and Zoubek who had injuries or underwhelming NBA careers. It also had two Plumlees who made boatloads of cash in the league but overall, the best players did not fare well in the league.

Going back to 2001, injuries robbed JWill of what could have been a truly great career but Boozer, Battier, and Dunleavy each played in the league for a loooong time and had a ton of success.

The 1991 and 92 champs had Hurley's injury-abbreviated NBA career. Laettner had a few good seasons but probably not the career his college success would have indicated. Grant is a Hall of Famer but I was mildly surprised that Thomas Hill never made a NBA roster.

--Jason "I did not enjoy writing this post" Evans

[Jaks19]

I'd expect Tre to enter the draft. Duke has Roach coming in and in all of his interviews, Roach says Duke wants him to run the team.

Carey, I think is a no brainer to leave.

Cassius, is another on that I expect to leave. His is physically ready and has that athleticism. HIs game will develop at Duke or in the Pros at some level.

Hurt is the one that no one knows what he will do. Does he have the skills that NBA teams are looking for, yes. But he also needs a lot of physical and mental development. My guess is he goes, and that is truly a guess without any supporting evidence.

(((( redacted content ))))

[jv001]

I feel like K or someone connected to the program made a comment about Saturday being Tre's last game in Cameron. I would rate him as at least 95% to head to the draft... and as others have noted it would be really nice if that went to 100?% because he was part of a deep run in March.

I'm hoping that's the case. Tre leads Duke to a FF or even better, a Championship. However, there's a fine line in how he does that. Is he going to have the mind set that he has to score 20+ pts each game? Or does he take what the defense gives him and he makes the team better. I hope it's the latter.

GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Lead Duke to a title and your NBA career is disappointing. Is this a thing?

You mentioned the 4 most prominent guys from the 2015 team who have not exactly lit the league on fire (though both QCook and Amile have made more NBA bucks than most of us might have imagined).

The 2010 squad was built around Nolan, Singler, Scheyer and Zoubek who had injuries or underwhelming NBA careers. It also had two Plumlees who made boatloads of cash in the league but overall, the best players did not fare well in the league.

Going back to 2001, injuries robbed JWill of what could have been a truly great career but Boozer, Battier, and Dunleavy each played in the league for a loooong time and had a ton of success.

The 1991 and 92 champs had Hurley's injury-abbreviated NBA career. Laettner had a few good seasons but probably not the career his college success would have indicated. Grant is a Hall of Famer but I was mildly surprised that Thomas Hill never made a NBA roster.

--Jason "I did not enjoy writing this post" Evans

You're not giving Laettner enough credit. He was an All-Star and averaged over 18 points in two seasons. Injuries and a drug problem prevented him from having sustained success.

The 2010 team was the perfect ensemble of "NBA 12th man" players. Good enough to make an NBA roster, not good enough to be an impactful player. The only player who really "made it" from a financial AND performance perspective is MP2. MP1 and Singler made their money but had little impact once they signed their last big contract.

The 2010 team is really interesting. Would you rather have a team full of fringe NBA players (like 2010) or a team with an NBA superstar and little else (Carmelo's Syracuse team, 2003)? Ideally, you'd have a team filled with players who are solid starters or rotation players (2016 Villanova, 2015 Duke) or a team filled with stars and starters (Kentucky, 2012), but that's insanely hard to recruit and plan for. And, sometimes, it doesn't pan out (Duke, 2019).

[lotusland]

I'm hoping that's the case. Tre leads Duke to a FF or even better, a Championship. However, there's a fine line in how he does that. Is he going to have the mind set that he has to score 20+ pts each game? Or does he take what the defense gives him and he makes the team better. I hope it's the latter.

GoDuke!

I don’t think Tre takes many bad shots that interrupt the flow and efficiency of the offense. I think his shooting percentage is misleading and not indicative of how efficient he is. Someone has to shoot when the shot clock is winding down and Tre takes a lot of tough shots at the end of the shot clock. He also gets fouled a lot which results in points and foul trouble for the opponent. He shot 10-10 from the line on Saturday. Add 5 made shots to his total and he’s 9-18. That doesn’t make me want Tre to shoot less.

[robed deity]

You're not giving Laettner enough credit. He was an All-Star and averaged over 18 points in two seasons. Injuries and a drug problem prevented him from having sustained success.

The 2010 team was the perfect ensemble of "NBA 12th man" players. Good enough to make an NBA roster, not good enough to be an impactful player. The only player who really "made it" from a financial AND performance perspective is MP2. MP1 and Singler made their money but had little impact once they signed their last big contract.

The 2010 team is really interesting. Would you rather have a team full of fringe NBA players (like 2010) or a team with an NBA superstar and little else (Carmelo's Syracuse team, 2003)? Ideally, you'd have a team filled with players who are solid starters or rotation players (2016 Villanova, 2015 Duke) or a team filled with stars and starters (Kentucky, 2012), but that's insanely hard to recruit and plan for. And, sometimes, it doesn't pan out (Duke, 2019).
This is the first time I've heard of Laettner and a drug problem. Is this common knowledge?

[flyingdutchdevil]

This is the first time I've heard of Laettner and a drug problem. Is this common knowledge?

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/jan/13/20040113-113140-9439r/

Minor on the surface, but he didn't play much after that and retired after the next season. Age probably had a lot to do with retirement, but you cannot disregard the suspension.

[jv001]

I don’t think Tre takes many bad shots that interrupt the flow and efficiency of the offense. I think his shooting percentage is misleading and not indicative of how efficient he is. Someone has to shoot when the shot clock is winding down and Tre takes a lot of tough shots at the end of the shot clock. He also gets fouled a lot which results in points and foul trouble for the opponent. He shot 10-10 from the line on Saturday. Add 5 made shots to his total and he’s 9-18. That doesn’t make me want Tre to shoot less.

Oh, I'm not one that thinks Tre has taken bad shots this season. I think it's by design(Coach K) that he has the ball in his hands late in the shot clock and he's been forced to take some off balanced shots. I had rather him have the ball in those situations than anyone else on the team. That's not a knock on him. My point is I hope he doesn't put being the star in front of being a point guard that distributes the ball. I don't think he will because he doesn't seem to be that kind of guy.

GoDuke!

[Natty_B]

You're not giving Laettner enough credit. He was an All-Star and averaged over 18 points in two seasons. Injuries and a drug problem prevented him from having sustained success.

The 2010 team was the perfect ensemble of "NBA 12th man" players. Good enough to make an NBA roster, not good enough to be an impactful player. The only player who really "made it" from a financial AND performance perspective is MP2. MP1 and Singler made their money but had little impact once they signed their last big contract.

The 2010 team is really interesting. Would you rather have a team full of fringe NBA players (like 2010) or a team with an NBA superstar and little else (Carmelo's Syracuse team, 2003)? Ideally, you'd have a team filled with players who are solid starters or rotation players (2016 Villanova, 2015 Duke) or a team filled with stars and starters (Kentucky, 2012), but that's insanely hard to recruit and plan for. And, sometimes, it doesn't pan out (Duke, 2019).

After playing his best pro basketball for the Hawks Laettner suffered an achilles injury during the 98-99 lockout and was never the same. I feel a lot of people, not on this board, equate his pro career as being a bust and that's certainly wrong. IIRC Laettner was also traded to the Lakers but the trade was voided - if it wasn't voided he could have gotten a ring with Shaq and Kobe.

I don't know if I would classify Jay Williams as having a likely great career - his rookie year was pretty messy on and off the court. Duhon is another title winner who had a good pro career. The 2001 team was stacked. Honestly so was the 2002 team which is why the dumb Indiana loss is still so haunting!

Anyhow I kinda feel like Duke already got one more year than expected from Tre Jones. I also see Carey Jr and Stanley as gone. I think Moore stays and Hurt is a total question mark.

[jv001]

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2004/jan/13/20040113-113140-9439r/

Minor on the surface, but he didn't play much after that and retired after the next season. Age probably had a lot to do with retirement, but you cannot disregard the suspension.

The worst part of his suspension was that it gave Brandon Haywood(Cheats) more playing time. :cool:

GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

After playing his best pro basketball for the Hawks Laettner suffered an achilles injury during the 98-99 lockout and was never the same. I feel a lot of people, not on this board, equate his pro career as being a bust and that's certainly wrong. IIRC Laettner was also traded to the Lakers but the trade was voided - if it wasn't voided he could have gotten a ring with Shaq and Kobe.

I don't know if I would classify Jay Williams as having a likely great career - his rookie year was pretty messy on and off the court. Duhon is another title winner who had a good pro career. The 2001 team was stacked. Honestly so was the 2002 team which is why the dumb Indiana loss is still so haunting!

Anyhow I kinda feel like Duke already got one more year than expected from Tre Jones. I also see Carey Jr and Stanley as gone. I think Moore stays and Hurt is a total question mark.

Yeah, these two players are massive question marks.

With Moore, he has the tools and an NBA ready body. I could see him saying, "there are a lot of wings coming in next year to compete with, my body is NBA-ready, hence I can develop more in the NBA". Kinda like Duval, Bolden, and Trent.

With Hurt, it's a different story. His body isn't ready for college, not to mention the NBA. Defensively, he can't guard his own shadow. And he shies away from contact. Plus, we need big men next year, and that should incentivize Hurt to bulk up. I'd be utterly shocked if Hurt declares. He's just not ready in any shape or form for the NBA. But OADs - or perceived OADs - have made a lot of dumb decisions in the past.

[Troublemaker]

I'm hoping that's the case. Tre leads Duke to a FF or even better, a Championship. However, there's a fine line in how he does that. Is he going to have the mind set that he has to score 20+ pts each game? Or does he take what the defense gives him and he makes the team better. I hope it's the latter.

GoDuke!


I don’t think Tre takes many bad shots that interrupt the flow and efficiency of the offense. I think his shooting percentage is misleading and not indicative of how efficient he is. Someone has to shoot when the shot clock is winding down and Tre takes a lot of tough shots at the end of the shot clock. He also gets fouled a lot which results in points and foul trouble for the opponent. He shot 10-10 from the line on Saturday. Add 5 made shots to his total and he’s 9-18. That doesn’t make me want Tre to shoot less.

Agree with lotusland. This isn't a team that's loaded with scoring where Tre can just sit back, rely on his scorers, and rack up assists (not that Tre doesn't also assist at a very good rate, too). He is our best creator, and opponents need to respect his scoring or else the assist opportunities dry up. Yes, he does get stuck with trying to make something happen from nothing when the offense stalls or at the end of the shot clock, which can lower his efficiency. But a Tre that's less aggressive on offense likely makes Duke a worse offense.

[Jaks19]

Look not all Duke players entering the NBA draft going to be NBA All-Stars. But some like Lance Thomas, and Amile Jefferson who neither were thought to have much of NBA careers have done better or just as well as players such as Okafor and Kyle Singler, 2 very good players from Duke.

[Billy Dat]

Agree with lotusland. This isn't a team that's loaded with scoring where Tre can just sit back, rely on his scorers, and rack up assists (not that Tre doesn't also assist at a very good rate, too). He is our best creator, and opponents need to respect his scoring or else the assist opportunities dry up. Yes, he does get stuck with trying to make something happen from nothing when the offense stalls or at the end of the shot clock, which can lower his efficiency. But a Tre that's less aggressive on offense likely makes Duke a worse offense.

I also appreciate that Tre has developed two signature shots....the herky-jerky elbow pull up jumper and the pull up 3 at the top of the break where it looks like he's falling forward as he releases. Tre's shots also seem to hit the back rim and fire straight down with some frequency.

[Nrrrrvous]

I also appreciate that Tre has developed two signature shots...the herky-jerky elbow pull up jumper and the pull up 3 at the top of the break where it looks like he's falling forward as he releases. Tre's shots also seem to hit the back rim and fire straight down with some frequency.

You know, I dreaded both of those shots at the beginning of the season. Now? Not so much...

[Duke79UNLV77]

Can we promote Garrison Brooks to enter the draft? I haven't seen him on mock draft boards, but I've seen a couple of sites mention him as a possible second rounder. If that's likely his ceiling based on his limitations, and he may be unlikely that he plays much better or at least puts up better numbers next year than this year, why not go on and leave a big hold in roster so Ole Roy can bemoan the lack of talent for him to coach again next year?

[wsb3]

Can we promote Garrison Brooks to enter the draft? I haven't seen him on mock draft boards, but I've seen a couple of sites mention him as a possible second rounder. If that's likely his ceiling based on his limitations, and he may be unlikely that he plays much better or at least puts up better numbers next year than this year, why not go on and leave a big hold in roster so Ole Roy can bemoan the lack of talent for him to coach again next year?

I have been surprised that with the year he has had that his stock has not risen. I would love to see him gone.

[Jaks19]

Maybe he does enter the draft. Tony Bradley shocked many by entering the draft.

[CDu]

I have been surprised that with the year he has had that his stock has not risen. I would love to see him gone.

The problem for Brooks is that he's "old" for a prospect, has not had a long track record of success despite his experience, and hasn't shown a very versatile game even in his breakout season. He doesn't have good shooting range, doesn't defend away from the basket, doesn't handle the ball well. He's basically a smallball center in the NBA, but doesn't have the defensive attributes to make that work.

That's not to say he can't wow somebody this spring and earn a bid. He IS an athletic kid, and maybe he can convince someone that UNC's system is holding him back (the Tony Bradley route). But I would expect him to return next year.

[Steven43]

I also appreciate that Tre has developed two signature shots...the herky-jerky elbow pull up jumper and the pull up 3 at the top of the break where it looks like he's falling forward as he releases. Tre's shots also seem to hit the back rim and fire straight down with some frequency.

Exactly! It looks like he’s falling forward on his 3-pt attempts. That’s precisely what I’ve been seeing, but couldn’t put my finger on how to express it. That’s the main thing about his jumpshot that I think he needs to alter in order to have a chance at consistently making NBA 3-pointers.

By the way, what did you mean by “fire straight down”? Thanks.

[Phredd3]

By the way, what did you mean by “fire straight down”? Thanks.

Not speaking for Billy Dat, but my daughter also noticed this phenomenon. His shots have a fair amount of spin, and several times in the last game, they hit the back of the rim and fell straight down through the net, barely causing the net to even ripple. He did that at least twice in the game, perhaps more. Certainly he wasn't getting the satisfying "rip" sound when a ball swishes through.

[UrinalCake]

Tony Bradley leaving wasn’t a huge shock, at least it wouldn’t have been at any school besides UNC. He was ranked in the top 20 and had good measurements and physical profile, so he was draftable based on potential. Brooks was well outside the top 100, he has overachieved, give Roy credit for how he has developed but he is undersized for an NBA big. He actually plays more of the 4 next to Bacot, which works well in Roy’s system but literally no other basketball system on the planet unless you were to invent a time machine and go back to the 80’s.

[Troublemaker]

Garrison won't let Roy down. He will be there next year to block Walker Kessler and Day'Ron Sharpe and turn those guys into multiple year players.

Kessler could've been Duke's starting stretch-5, won a national championship, and parlayed that into OAD lottery. Oh well.

[Jaks19]

I reclass reading on some one of the sites that Kessler grew up a UNC fan and not all in to go to Duke. Much like Isaiah Stewart from the 2019 class who was perceived as going to Duke too

[Duke79UNLV77]

The problem for Brooks is that he's "old" for a prospect, has not had a long track record of success despite his experience, and hasn't shown a very versatile game even in his breakout season. He doesn't have good shooting range, doesn't defend away from the basket, doesn't handle the ball well. He's basically a smallball center in the NBA, but doesn't have the defensive attributes to make that work.

That's not to say he can't wow somebody this spring and earn a bid. He IS an athletic kid, and maybe he can convince someone that UNC's system is holding him back (the Tony Bradley route). But I would expect him to return next year.

I don't disagree with any of that, but it likely will all still be true next year, except he'll be another year older. He's on a bug run of productivity now and may not be as featured on next year's team. He may have as good a chance at getting a look now as ever, and there is more of a pathway for people to make it to the NBA from the G leave than there used to be. Anyway, I can hope.

[CDu]

I don't disagree with any of that, but it likely will all still be true next year, except he'll be another year older. He's on a bug run of productivity now and may not be as featured on next year's team. He may have as good a chance at getting a look now as ever, and there is more of a pathway for people to make it to the NBA from the G leave than there used to be. Anyway, I can hope.

Far be it for me to dash your hopes, and obviously we're all just speculating here. But the counterargument would be "even if the chances are as good as they are going to get, if the chances aren't good this year then what is the value in going early?" If he isn't likely to be drafted this year (or 2nd round at best), he probably gains as much by enjoying one more year of being a big man on campus, perhaps on a team that does well nationally, and gets one more chance to improve his stock.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Far be it for me to dash your hopes, and obviously we're all just speculating here. But the counterargument would be "even if the chances are as good as they are going to get, if the chances aren't good this year then what is the value in going early?" If he isn't likely to be drafted this year (or 2nd round at best), he probably gains as much by enjoying one more year of being a big man on campus, perhaps on a team that does well nationally, and gets one more chance to improve his stock.

Plus, one more year of classes at uncheat! Hahahaha! (Not intended as anything personally with Brooks.)

[arnie]

Garrison won't let Roy down. He will be there next year to block Walker Kessler and Day'Ron Sharpe and turn those guys into multiple year players.

Kessler could've been Duke's starting stretch-5, won a national championship, and parlayed that into OAD lottery. Oh well.

You sure you’re not Ole Roy? That’s his exact plan and he probably had Kessler and Sharpe sign 2-year non competes that include NBA.

[Billy Dat]

Not speaking for Billy Dat, but my daughter also noticed this phenomenon. His shots have a fair amount of spin, and several times in the last game, they hit the back of the rim and fell straight down through the net, barely causing the net to even ripple. He did that at least twice in the game, perhaps more. Certainly he wasn't getting the satisfying "rip" sound when a ball swishes through.

Yes, this is exactly what I meant. Tre rarely swishes his shot, it feels more like he's violently throwing it at the bucket and it hits the back rim at a great speed and ricochets straight down.

[jv001]

Yes, this is exactly what I meant. Tre rarely swishes his shot, it feels more like he's violently throwing it at the bucket and it hits the back rim at a great speed and ricochets straight down.

Looks like Tre has mastered hitting the front rim and back rim when it's needed. :cool: I see the same thing when he shoots that pull 3 on the break. I used to love it when Christian would be the trail guy coming down on the break and Bobby would hit him with a pass at the top of the circle. MONEY! He didn't have to use the rim though.
GoDuke!

[left_hook_lacey]

You sure you’re not Ole Roy? That’s his exact plan and he probably had Kessler and Sharpe sign 2-year non competes that include NBA.

Phase 1 of big men sticking around complete.

Bacot already saying he's coming back next year. Always hard to know what to believe after a season ending loss, but sounds like he's sincere, for now.

[Jaks19]

Bacot, I could see going either way. Leaving or staying but I think he at least tests the waters and gets evaluated and feedback.
Brooks, I think should go. Just based on the fact that his reason this year was really good and next year, not that his play time would be reduced, but UNC will/could have a 4 bigs rotation with Bacot, Sharp, Kessler and Brooks

[aivroadstr]

I wonder how many player's Draft decisions are going to be affected by the conference tournament cancellations and more than likely NCAA tourney cancellation.

[Jaks19]

That's a really good question.
I think for Tre and Vernon, they were gone. I feel for the guys like Stanley who has a chance and could have used the opportunity. I think he declares. Now for Hurt, I think he has a major decision to make and we all just need to sit back and wait.

[dukelifer]

That's a really good question.
I think for Tre and Vernon, they were gone. I feel for the guys like Stanley who has a chance and could have used the opportunity. I think he declares. Now for Hurt, I think he has a major decision to make and we all just need to sit back and wait.

Hurt would be making a poor decision to leave unless he hates his college experience. He needs to get much stronger to play at the next level.

[BlueDevil16]

Hurt would be making a poor decision to leave unless he hates his college experience. He needs to get much stronger to play at the next level.

Exactly.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Bacot, I could see going either way. Leaving or staying but I think he at least tests the waters and gets evaluated and feedback.
Brooks, I think should go. Just based on the fact that his reason this year was really good and next year, not that his play time would be reduced, but UNC will/could have a 4 bigs rotation with Bacot, Sharp, Kessler and Brooks

Roy should be developing a reputation of putting his players in a tough situation. Nassir Little was a poor fit and Cole Anthony didn't have enough around him to carry the load. It exposed Anthony more than he should have been. Now he's creating a log jam in the front court. Unless Garrison Brooks tries to get into the league as non-shooting, old-school PF or PF/C that has next to no ball handling, passing, or shooting outside of 15 feet, I don't see him leaving Chapel Hill. I wouldn't blame him for wanting to come back for his senior year. He'd have a chance to go out as a bit of a UNC hero and get back to the NCAA Tournament. If he does come back, you know Ol' Roy is going to lean on him for tons of minutes as his trusted senior.

That puts Bacot, Kessler, and Sharpe into a bind as they are all 5-start prospects but will be shuffled through, sharing the remaining 45 minutes of playing time per game between the three. Collectively, I am sure the frontcourt will be productive, but it will sure stifle any chances each have of highlighting their skills. Of the three, Bacot and Sharpe are mutually exclusive on the court as neither appear able to guard out beyond 10 feet of the rim. We saw Vernon Carey, Jr. rip right past Bacot a ton of times. What's he going to do if Jalen Johnson or Jaemyn Brakefield have that matchup with Bacot away from the rim? Sharpe's a big, rugged center type as well. I haven't seen enough of Kessler to know if he can guard forwards and wings away from the basket, but he doesn't have a reputation as a quick-footed player. Either way, it's going to be a very good rebounding team in Chapel Hill next year with tons of fouls to give. But I don't see how Roy is going to keep his 4 big men happy.

[budwom]

I pay not attention to this stuff, but took a peek at nbadraft.net because there's not much else to do...they have Cold Anthony going fifth to the Knicks, which would be a great (dysfunctional) cultural fit, RJ will never see the ball again;
they have Stanley and Tre going in the second round; they have Vernon going in the first round to Duke South, i.e. New Orleans. Nothing to be taken seriously, but worth a few chuckles.

[Troublemaker]

Bacot, I could see going either way. Leaving or staying but I think he at least tests the waters and gets evaluated and feedback.
Brooks, I think should go. Just based on the fact that his reason this year was really good and next year, not that his play time would be reduced, but UNC will/could have a 4 bigs rotation with Bacot, Sharp, Kessler and Brooks

Wishful thinking. Brooks probably isn't in the top-100 of any team's draft board.

As others have mentioned, he's basically an old-school back-to-basket NBA power forward. That is, he is an extinct creature, and dodo birds should complete their college eligibility.

[Jaks19]

He if he stays or goes, it means nothing to me. All the more enjoyable when UNC loses to Duke.