Tracking 2020 Draft Projections

[jimsumner]

Hurt would be making a poor decision to leave unless he hates his college experience. He needs to get much stronger to play at the next level.

He does. But they have weight-training facilities in the G-league and you get paid there.

[DavidBenAkiva]

He does. But they have weight-training facilities in the G-league and you get paid there.

Hurt has such a difficult decision to make. I feel for the kid and his family. If he comes back and puts together an All-ACC/All-American season, it will have been well worth it. He could get paid as a 2nd rounder this year, but whatever he earns would not make up for being a 1st rounder in 2021 in terms of the size of a contract and a guaranteed contract. Being inconsistent for another year, though, and he only adds more question marks. An injury further complicates things. It's literally a multi-million dollar decision.

This COVID-19 situation only makes it worse. If he wanted to go straight to the NBA, the NCAA Tournament was a place to showcase his skills. He has a lot of skills and at 6'9", the shooting ability should be able to play at a higher level. But his current physical limitations are too obvious. Now he won't have the chance to shine during an important game. In a way, the tournament was going to make the decision for him. That opportunity is lost.

If I were advising him, I would sell him on the chance to be a key piece of the team next year. He has world class training and coaching at Duke, as good as you'll find at any level of the game. If he can build the strength he needs, I think he can untap more skills and abilities than he has shown this year, like rebounding, shot blocking, and scoring around the rim. All of that is based on him having the lower body strength to get in the right position in the post. We have seen flashes of this, but it has not been frequent enough.

Hurt strikes me as a Luke Kennard type, a player that has obvious skills but needs to mature into them. Does he have the work ethic to mature this offseason? I hope so.

[MartyClark]

Hurt has such a difficult decision to make. I feel for the kid and his family. If he comes back and puts together an All-ACC/All-American season, it will have been well worth it. He could get paid as a 2nd rounder this year, but whatever he earns would not make up for being a 1st rounder in 2021 in terms of the size of a contract and a guaranteed contract. Being inconsistent for another year, though, and he only adds more question marks. An injury further complicates things. It's literally a multi-million dollar decision.

Hurt strikes me as a Luke Kennard type, a player that has obvious skills but needs to mature into them. Does he have the work ethic to mature this offseason? I hope so.

I like the kid and hope he stays.

I am curious what you see in him to think that attaining All-ACC or All-American status next year is even remotely possible. I just don't see that he has the strength or quickness to attain All-ACC heights next year or, for that matter to ever attain All-American heights. I'm not knocking him at all, I think he could end up being a solid starter on a good Duke team but just don't see the potential that you may.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I like the kid and hope he stays.

I am curious what you see in him to think that attaining All-ACC or All-American status next year is even remotely possible. I just don't see that he has the strength or quickness to attain All-ACC heights next year or, for that matter to ever attain All-American heights. I'm not knocking him at all, I think he could end up being a solid starter on a good Duke team but just don't see the potential that you may.

For starters, the shooting. He's just really good from distance. I think he's going to be a great pick-and-roll guy because he's shown that he can pick and pop or go to the rim. And he's pretty nifty around the rim. He understands angles. It's obvious the basketball IQ is super high. He just doesn't have the strength to get into position on the block and abuse his man. Because when he does get the ball down low, he has a ton of options.

He had these sparks during the season when he played with confidence and absolutely lit up teams. There was the 20-point first half against BC. A 22-point game against Miami. He even played well against Florida State. But then he would disappear for games at a time. That screams to me someone that can and should develop into a great player. It reminds me a lot of Cam Reddish. He would just disappear for 3 or 6 games. And then he'd explode. In the last 20 games of his season before the NBA suspended, he finally started to demonstrate consistency in his game. Reddish had better balance on his jumper. He started to attack the rim more and play through contact. It was never a matter of talent. It was more about maturity in both mindset and physical development.

[dukelifer]

He does. But they have weight-training facilities in the G-league and you get paid there.

true- about 35K. The G-league is about self motivation. I still think Duke is a better gig.

[MartyClark]

For starters, the shooting. He's just really good from distance. I think he's going to be a great pick-and-roll guy because he's shown that he can pick and pop or go to the rim. And he's pretty nifty around the rim. He understands angles. It's obvious the basketball IQ is super high. He just doesn't have the strength to get into position on the block and abuse his man. Because when he does get the ball down low, he has a ton of options.

He had these sparks during the season when he played with confidence and absolutely lit up teams. There was the 20-point first half against BC. A 22-point game against Miami. He even played well against Florida State. But then he would disappear for games at a time. That screams to me someone that can and should develop into a great player. It reminds me a lot of Cam Reddish. He would just disappear for 3 or 6 games. And then he'd explode. In the last 20 games of his season before the NBA suspended, he finally started to demonstrate consistency in his game. Reddish had better balance on his jumper. He started to attack the rim more and play through contact. It was never a matter of talent. It was more about maturity in both mindset and physical development.

I hope you are right and also hope he stays another year.

Full disclosure, I'm a notoriously bad judge of young talent. The U.S. nation team, I think U19, played a tournament at the Olympic Training Center in Colorado Springs some years ago. Luke Kennard, Justice Winslow and Chase Jeter were on the team. I went with my best lawyer-basketball buddy who is connected to the Louisville program. I was not impressed by Luke, I thought he was too slow to make it at Duke.

A year or so later, I was with my buddy in Louisville for the Duke game. We ran into Luke's parents and my friend told them how I had dissed Luke.

I'm happy to be wrong on Hurt's prospects.

[jimsumner]

true- about 35K. The G-league is about self motivation. I still think Duke is a better gig.

Two-way players make $77,500, IIRC.

The G-League has matured a great deal over the last few years. I believe your perception of it may be a bit outdated. Look at how much Gary Trent improved playing mostly in the G-League last season. NBA teams invest resources in their G-League teams and G-League players and those resources include quality weight-training facilities and play-development coaches.

Doesn't mean that Hurt will not return to Duke and cannot get better at Duke. I hope he does. I agree with David. Give him 15 pounds and some time and he can be a very, very good college player.

But returning to Duke is not his only valid option.

[Steven43]

Two-way players make $77,500, IIRC.

The G-League has matured a great deal over the last few years. I believe your perception of it may be a bit outdated. Look at how much Gary Trent improved playing mostly in the G-League last season. NBA teams invest resources in their G-League teams and G-League players and those resources include quality weight-training facilities and play-development coaches.

Doesn't mean that Hurt will not return to Duke and cannot get better at Duke. But that is not his only valid option.

Let’s hope that Matthew Hurt doesn’t read your post. 😮

[aivroadstr]

Bacot, I could see going either way. Leaving or staying but I think he at least tests the waters and gets evaluated and feedback.
Brooks, I think should go. Just based on the fact that his reason this year was really good and next year, not that his play time would be reduced, but UNC will/could have a 4 bigs rotation with Bacot, Sharp, Kessler and Brooks

Bacot announced that he is staying for his sophomore year. https://keepingitheel.com/2020/03/12/unc-basketball-armando-bacot-says-hes-returning-another-season/

[arnie]

Bacot announced that he is staying for his sophomore year. https://keepingitheel.com/2020/03/12/unc-basketball-armando-bacot-says-hes-returning-another-season/

Roy has a knack for this. As posted upthread, gonna be a crowded front court.

[superdave]

NBA is saying that pre draft travel, accessibility is going to be severely limited. If that's the case, guys like Hurt who could have a big shooting day and get a promise from a team may not even have the chance to play their way into getting picked.

Hurt averaged 10/4 and just shy of 40% from 3. If he goes 13/6 and 43% next year, he's a first rounder and gets drafted late enough to be on a playoff team. Anything better than that and he's All Acc and maybe a fringe All American, all while playing 35 nationally televised games.

How is that not better than a season at $77k in the G-league? Unless, as someone said, he did not enjoy his season at Duke, which I've not heard anywhere.

[sagegrouse]

NBA is saying that pre draft travel, accessibility is going to be severely limited. If that's the case, guys like Hurt who could have a big shooting day and get a promise from a team may not even have the chance to play their way into getting picked.

.
Wondering why NBA teams wouldn't use private jets to go where the players are? "Social distancing" may enter the equation. Another thought: if the 2020 NBA season resumes -- say, in June -- isn't it likely the draft would be postponed?

[superdave]

Wondering why NBA teams wouldn't use private jets to go where the players are? "Social distancing" may enter the equation. Another thought: if the 2020 NBA season resumes -- say, in June -- isn't it likely the draft would be postponed?

My guess is delayed draft and compressed evaluation period.

Which do scouts prefer, private workouts or combines?

[UrinalCake]

I think Stanley is the one who would be hurt the most by not having a combine opportunity. He would have gotten a big boost, must like Frank Jackson and Miles Plumlee did. Hurt would have likely put up mediocre testing and measurement numbers. He could have had a good shooting performance in some of the drills and five on fives, but I'm not sure that would tell scouts anything they don't already know.

It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out.

[scottdude8]

I think Stanley is the one who would be hurt the most by not having a combine opportunity. He would have gotten a big boost, must like Frank Jackson and Miles Plumlee did. Hurt would have likely put up mediocre testing and measurement numbers. He could have had a good shooting performance in some of the drills and five on fives, but I'm not sure that would tell scouts anything they don't already know.

It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out.

Agreed. There's also the possibility that there may not even be a "testing the waters" option this year which would throw another huge wrench into things. I have to imagine that Stanley would "test the waters" rather than hire an agent right away given the huge variability in his projections, which would allow him to go in and impress at the combine. If the NCAA does something stupid (and let's be honest, that's the expectation rather than the exception at this point) and doesn't adjust their rules with the NBA draft, guys for whom that evaluation would've been very useful may not be able to get it. That will lead to some people who we would've expected to go pro returning, and others making potentially rash decisions and going pro when it seems like not the best decision.

This will be fascinating to watch and speculate about endlessly over these next months. I really hope the NBA and NCAA make these decisions in concert, but that seems like a pipe dream.

[Nugget]

Agreed. There's also the possibility that there may not even be a "testing the waters" option this year which would throw another huge wrench into things. I have to imagine that Stanley would "test the waters" rather than hire an agent right away given the huge variability in his projections, which would allow him to go in and impress at the combine. If the NCAA does something stupid (and let's be honest, that's the expectation rather than the exception at this point) and doesn't adjust their rules with the NBA draft, guys for whom that evaluation would've been very useful may not be able to get it. That will lead to some people who we would've expected to go pro returning, and others making potentially rash decisions and going pro when it seems like not the best decision.

This will be fascinating to watch and speculate about endlessly over these next months. I really hope the NBA and NCAA make these decisions in concert, but that seems like a pipe dream.

Given that Cassius' father is a big-time agent he would presumably be better situated to get accurate information in a truncated draft process than almost anyone else. To the extent it matters - he may just be ready to move on to a pro career regardless of his draft position.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agreed. There's also the possibility that there may not even be a "testing the waters" option this year which would throw another huge wrench into things. I have to imagine that Stanley would "test the waters" rather than hire an agent right away given the huge variability in his projections, which would allow him to go in and impress at the combine. If the NCAA does something stupid (and let's be honest, that's the expectation rather than the exception at this point) and doesn't adjust their rules with the NBA draft, guys for whom that evaluation would've been very useful may not be able to get it. That will lead to some people who we would've expected to go pro returning, and others making potentially rash decisions and going pro when it seems like not the best decision.

This will be fascinating to watch and speculate about endlessly over these next months. I really hope the NBA and NCAA make these decisions in concert, but that seems like a pipe dream.

Why should the NBA care at all about the NCAA at this point? The NBA will do what is best for them. The NCAA will try to do what is best for them but will always lose to the NBA.

I hope (and suspect) the NBA makes the best decision for their draftees, which should translate to the plenty of private workouts for the top 50-70 players.

It's times like these where having a coach with such a deep connection to the NBA and their scouts will really help a lot.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic has updated his big board for the 2020 NBA Draft. I think Vecenie is one of the better writers about this. He interviews a lot of NBA scouts and front office folks. Here's what he has as of the beginning of April:

20. Tre Jones
32. Cassius Stanley
34. Vernon Carey, Jr.
67. Matthew Hurt

This makes me think Stanley is as good as gone if he is that close to a late first round. I am sort of not surprised to see Vernon Carey there but also wonder if a team that could use a productive big like the Lakers would take him in the 1st.

[roywhite]

Sam Vecenie of the Athletic has updated his big board for the 2020 NBA Draft. I think Vecenie is one of the better writers about this. He interviews a lot of NBA scouts and front office folks. Here's what he has as of the beginning of April:

20. Tre Jones
32. Cassius Stanley
34. Vernon Carey, Jr.
67. Matthew Hurt

This makes me think Stanley is as good as gone if he is that close to a late first round. I am sort of not surprised to see Vernon Carey there but also wonder if a team that could use a productive big like the Lakers would take him in the 1st.

Shades of Carlos Boozer for Vernon?

Carlos went #35 in the 2002 draft. As a rookie, he averaged 10 points and 7 rebounds; by his second season, Carlos averaged 15.5 points and 11.4 rebounds, on his way to a very productive pro career.

[Jaks19]

Stanley has many of the qualities that NBA programs look for. As we all have seen he is extremely athletic. He had a decent 3pt shooting percentage, he was focused as a defender and he has good physical intangibles. Those things alone will entice some team to take him in either the late 1st round or in the second round.

[Natty_B]

Shades of Carlos Boozer for Vernon?

Carlos went #35 in the 2002 draft. As a rookie, he averaged 10 points and 7 rebounds; by his second season, Carlos averaged 15.5 points and 11.4 rebounds, on his way to a very productive pro career.

Probably the other way around Boozer, with his total lack of D and limited outside game, wouldn't be a good fit for the present day NBA.

[UrinalCake]

Probably the other way around Boozer, with his total lack of D and limited outside game, wouldn't be a good fit for the present day NBA.

I think the similarity was just in draft position, not playing style. Boozer was a second round steal and Carey could be as well. Boozer broke his foot that season and was limited in his return during that 2001 run, so that could have affected his draft position. I think many thought that he was undersized to play the 5 but he acquitted himself well at the next level. Agree that he would be less productive in today's game.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

I think the similarity was just in draft position, not playing style. Boozer was a second round steal and Carey could be as well. Boozer broke his foot that season and was limited in his return during that 2001 run, so that could have affected his draft position. I think many thought that he was undersized to play the 5 but he acquitted himself well at the next level. Agree that he would be less productive in today's game.

Boozer performed better in 2001-02 (increased ppg and rpg), his junior year. Why did his broken foot in 2001 affect his 2002 draft position?

[UrinalCake]

Sorry, brain fart. I was thinking he left in 2001.

[devildeac]

Sorry, brain fart. I was thinking he left in 2001.

Here's to never forgetting 3/21/02:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2002-03-21-duke.html

Boozer. Was. Fouled.

Yep, still too soon.:mad:

[Natty_B]

Here's to never forgetting 3/21/02:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/boxscores/2002-03-21-duke.html

Boozer. Was. Fouled.

Yep, still too soon.:mad:

A top tier brutal Duke loss for me. 2002 team had 5 guys who would go on to have very solid NBA careers (or would have in the case of Williams). Waiting in the Elite 8 was Cinderella Kent St (and Antonio Gates) - not saying Duke would have rolled them but IU did so a FF seemed pretty likely. The Terps would have been difficult though.

[Steven43]

A top tier brutal Duke loss for me. 2002 team had 5 guys who would go on to have very solid NBA careers (or would have in the case of Williams). Waiting in the Elite 8 was Cinderella Kent St (and Antonio Gates) - not saying Duke would have rolled them but IU did so a FF seemed pretty likely. The Terps would have been difficult though.

Wasn’t the 2001-2002 season the one in which during the Maryland game at Cameron Indoor Jason Williams put the team on his back and relentlessly drove to the basket again and again while leading Duke to a destruction of the #3-ranked Terrapins? I’m pretty sure it was.

Regardless, it was astonishing to see a relatively short guard fearlessly attack the basket over and over with much bigger players — often two or even three — waiting for him knowing full well he was coming. My gosh, I wish I had a recording of that game.

[CDu]

Wasn’t the 2001-2002 season the one in which during the Maryland game at Cameron Indoor Jason Williams put the team on his back and relentlessly drove to the basket again and again while leading Duke to a destruction of the #3-ranked Terrapins? I’m pretty sure it was.

It's also the season in which Maryland beat us by 14 in College Park just a month later.

[Natty_B]

It's also the season in which Maryland beat us by 14 in College Park just a month later.

Yep and Duke looked BAD in that game with the most "memorable" play being Williams not paying attention and getting his pocket picked right before half for a buzzer beating layup - don't recall by who - maybe Dixon? Give it enough time and I try to turn every thread back to that era.

[Steven43]

Geez, I was excited about discussing one of the signature performances by an all-time great Duke player and you guys killed it.

[pfrduke]

Yep and Duke looked BAD in that game with the most "memorable" play being Williams not paying attention and getting his pocket picked right before half for a buzzer beating layup - don't recall by who - maybe Dixon? Give it enough time and I try to turn every thread back to that era.

Funny, I had thought that play (and I remembered Blake being the pick-pocketer) happened in the Miracle Minute game.

[roywhite]

Wasn’t the 2001-2002 season the one in which during the Maryland game at Cameron Indoor Jason Williams put the team on his back and relentlessly drove to the basket again and again while leading Duke to a destruction of the #3-ranked Terrapins? I’m pretty sure it was.

Regardless, it was astonishing to see a relatively short guard fearlessly attack the basket over and over with much bigger players — often two or even three — waiting for him knowing full well he was coming. My gosh, I wish I had a recording of that game.

Ha...reminiscent in many ways of Maryland at Duke in 1973, with Gary Melchionni doing the relentless attacking while leading Duke to a big upset over highly ranked Maryland. Gary ended up with 39 points with many of the baskets coming on short jumpers in the lane. Certainly the highlight of the season for Bucky's last team.

[Steven43]

Ha...reminiscent in many ways of Maryland at Duke in 1973, with Gary Melchionni doing the relentless attacking while leading Duke to a big upset over highly ranked Maryland. Gary ended up with 39 points with many of the baskets coming on short jumpers in the lane. Certainly the highlight of the season for Bucky's last team.
Wow, I didn’t know Melchionni was that kind of scorer. Were you in attendance for that game?

[Teton Jack]

I was there and he was fantastic! Probably got him drafted to the NBA. Maryland kept shifting new guards to shut him down and he methodically took them apart. The court was spread and he would use positioning to get deeper into the lane. Then he would take his short jumper and score. This wasn't a dribble-drive environment; he didn't use quickness as much as he used intelligence. Ol' Lefty just about had a heart attack that game. He had so many weapons at his disposal.

[jv001]

Ha...reminiscent in many ways of Maryland at Duke in 1973, with Gary Melchionni doing the relentless attacking while leading Duke to a big upset over highly ranked Maryland. Gary ended up with 39 points with many of the baskets coming on short jumpers in the lane. Certainly the highlight of the season for Bucky's last team.

Ah! The Mongoose Offense. Well, I think that's what it was called. Gary was magnificent that game.

He was one smooth lefty.

GoDuke!

[House P]

Yep and Duke looked BAD in that game with the most "memorable" play being Williams not paying attention and getting his pocket picked right before half for a buzzer beating layup - don't recall by who - maybe Dixon?

Pretty sure it was Steve Blake who stole the ball from Williams, but I am not​ going to look it up to confirm. Ugh.

For what it is worth, KenPom says that Duke would probably have been a 3.5 to 4 point favorite in a Final 4 rematch.

[DavidBenAkiva]

This came out a couple of days ago. The fine people of HoopsHype do the dirty work of aggregating mock drafts from a variety of sources, including the Athletic, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, ESPN, NBADraft.net, Rookie Wire (USA Today), SB Nation, SI.com, and Sporting News. The aggregate mock draft, version 5.0 (https://hoopshype.com/2020/04/04/2020-aggregate-nba-mock-draft-5-0-international-prospects-are-rising/), was released on April 4.

1. Anthony Edwards, Georgia
2. LaMello Ball, International/BBB
3. James Wiseman, Memphis(ish)
4. Deni Avdija, International/Israel
5. Obi Toppin, Dayton
6. Onyeka Okongwu, USC
7. Isaac Okoro, Auburn
8. Killian Hayes, International/France
9. Tyrese Halliburton, Iowa State
10. Cole Anthony, UNC
11. Tyrese Maxey, Kentucky
12. RJ Hampton, International/American
13. Theo Maledon, International/France
14. Devin Vassell, FSU

24. Vernon Carey, Duke
27. Tre Jones, Duke
34. Cassius Stanely, Duke

A couple of notes about the Duke guys.

Vernon Carey, Jr. is in the 1st round in every mock and as high as 13th (NBADraft.net) and as low as 30th (Bleacher Report and SB Nation). Most of the ones I trust have him in the 26-29 range. That seems about right to me. He will most likely get drafted by a good team that could use a productive big right away like Houston or the Lakers.

Tre Jones mostly appears in the first round, with a low of 54 (NBADraft.net) and a high of 20 (SB Nation). I think a more recent mock from Sam Vecennie at The Athletic also had Jones at 20. He looks like he's in a good spot to go in the latter part of the first round.

Cassius Stanley did not appear in 2 mock drafts. Those mocks do not include 2nd rounders. Of the others, it's a mix of first and second round. I have heard on twitter or elsewhere that Stanely got a grade of early 2nd round during an initial evaluation. I do believe he's going to get a good contract from a team because of his athletic ability and how he shot the ball this year (36% from 3, 73.3% from the FT line). What NBA team couldn't use an athletic wing that can fly, has the foot speed to guard multiple positions, and can make a jumper? If he develops a tighter handle, he could be quite valuable in the NBA.

Matthew Hurt doesn't show up on most mocks and Wendell Moore is absent as well. I think the word is that they will both be sophomores but haven't seen firm confirmation yet on Hurt in particular. Signs are good he's coming back, which is great news to me. We'll see, though. Things change.

[brlftz]

I am sincerely shocked to hear that LaMello Ball is that highly regarded. I thought his oversees stint had been laughable, but I guess not.

[sagegrouse]

I am sincerely shocked to hear that LaMello Ball is that highly regarded. I thought his oversees stint had been laughable, but I guess not.

Me too. I would say, however, that we should celebrate the success of Lonzo Ball -- we don't seem to hear anything any more from poppa LaVar.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I am sincerely shocked to hear that LaMello Ball is that highly regarded. I thought his oversees stint had been laughable, but I guess not.

By all indications, he appears to be a very advanced passer. The shot still needs work. Perhaps he is getting a boost on account of his brother, who finally starting hitting jumpers this past season.

[JasonEvans]

I am sincerely shocked to hear that LaMello Ball is that highly regarded. I thought his oversees stint had been laughable, but I guess not.

Ummm, not even close to laughable. Playing in the NBL, a league full of grown men that is a decent international league, Mello averaged 17ppg with close to 7 assists per game and more than 7 and a half rebounds. His shooting is poor -- par for the course for a Ball -- only hitting 25% of his threes, but the fact that he hit better than 72% of his FTs shows that he may be able to round into at least a little bit of a perimeter shooter (his brother hit just 67% of his FTs at UCLA).

What's more, LaMello is a legit 6-7, perhaps even 6-8, PG with very good passing instincts and a strong handle. Because he was playing against the kind of experienced, older players he will face in the NBA, I think there's a good argument that Ball is the safest pick of anyone in the lottery this year.

-Jason "if I had the #1 pick, I would be very tempted to take him... he only just turned 18 and will be among the youngest players in this draft" Evans

[jv001]

Ummm, not even close to laughable. Playing in the NBL, a league full of grown men that is a decent international league, Mello averaged 17ppg with close to 7 assists per game and more than 7 and a half rebounds. His shooting is poor -- par for the course for a Ball -- only hitting 25% of his threes, but the fact that he hit better than 72% of his FTs shows that he may be able to round into at least a little bit of a perimeter shooter (his brother hit just 67% of his FTs at UCLA).

What's more, LaMello is a legit 6-7, perhaps even 6-8, PG with very good passing instincts and a strong handle. Because he was playing against the kind of experienced, older players he will face in the NBA, I think there's a good argument that Ball is the safest pick of anyone in the lottery this year.

-Jason "if I had the #1 pick, I would be very tempted to take him... he only just turned 18 and will be among the youngest players in this draft" Evans

Thanks for the info on young Mr. Ball but remember Jason, if you took him #1 or any spot in the draft, you'd have to put up with DAD. :cool:

GoDuke!

[JayZee]

Me too. I would say, however, that we should celebrate the success of Lonzo Ball -- we don't seem to hear anything any more from poppa LaVar.

popping off....

https://www.talkbasket.net/78348-lavar-ball-on-zion-williamson-ill-murder-that-boy-he-too-smallhe-too-slow

[MartyClark]

popping off...

https://www.talkbasket.net/78348-lavar-ball-on-zion-williamson-ill-murder-that-boy-he-too-smallhe-too-slow

He is a narcissistic moron. Even if he doesn't believe his own self promotion, and he may, this type of talk does him no good.

[arnie]

He is a narcissistic moron. Even if he doesn't believe his own self promotion, and he may, this type of talk does him no good.

Narcissistic yes; moron no. He loves attention and we’re talking about him😡.
I guess his kids still love him♥️

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic, who I think does a great job with these mock drafts, has an update to his Big Board. Here's what he has for the Duke players in the draft:

23. Miami Heat: Tre Jones
33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Cassius Stanley
35. Sacramento Kings: Vernon Carey, Jr.

Vecenie writes interesting notes about each player. For Jones, he got on a shooting hot streak over his last 7 games of the season, which lifted his season 3P% from 32.1% to 36.1%. In those final game, he shot 46.7% from 3 and 86.8% from the FT line. That is both encouraging and a little concerning to teams having to evaluate Jones. Was it sign of an improving shooter or a mirage? Vecenie writes that Jones does basically everything else at a high level and could see Jones taking over as a backup PG at worst in the NBA, like a version of his older brother Tyus. There are worse outcomes for a 23rd pick in the draft.

Cassius Stanley is a big riser over the season for Vecenie and others. He proved that his shooting, which could improve, is not the concern that some had before the year began. Oh, and he can absolutely fly. Vecenie referred to Stanley as a glue guy. Stanley also ended the year on a shooting hot-streak, hitting 43.5% of his 3-point attempts and 77.8% from the FT line. He has a future in the NBA if he can further refine his shooting form and play better off-the-ball defense.

Carey suffers from being a person with a skillset that is not in demand in the NBA these days. He did show promise as a shooter and notes that players that excel at scoring in the post and off of offensive rebounds can carve out a role - Enes Kanter was a comp. The biggest question for Carey is his ability to defend guards on switches. More teams are running drop-coverage defense, so you can play a guy like Carey in the right system. The ability to move his feet will be key.

[jv001]

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic, who I think does a great job with these mock drafts, has an update to his Big Board. Here's what he has for the Duke players in the draft:

23. Miami Heat: Tre Jones
33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Cassius Stanley
35. Sacramento Kings: Vernon Carey, Jr.

Vecenie writes interesting notes about each player. For Jones, he got on a shooting hot streak over his last 7 games of the season, which lifted his season 3P% from 32.1% to 36.1%. In those final game, he shot 46.7% from 3 and 86.8% from the FT line. That is both encouraging and a little concerning to teams having to evaluate Jones. Was it sign of an improving shooter or a mirage? Vecenie writes that Jones does basically everything else at a high level and could see Jones taking over as a backup PG at worst in the NBA, like a version of his older brother Tyus. There are worse outcomes for a 23rd pick in the draft.

Cassius Stanley is a big riser over the season for Vecenie and others. He proved that his shooting, which could improve, is not the concern that some had before the year began. Oh, and he can absolutely fly. Vecenie referred to Stanley as a glue guy. Stanley also ended the year on a shooting hot-streak, hitting 43.5% of his 3-point attempts and 77.8% from the FT line. He has a future in the NBA if he can further refine his shooting form and play better off-the-ball defense.

Carey suffers from being a person with a skillset that is not in demand in the NBA these days. He did show promise as a shooter and notes that players that excel at scoring in the post and off of offensive rebounds can carve out a role - Enes Kanter was a comp. The biggest question for Carey is his ability to defend guards on switches. More teams are running drop-coverage defense, so you can play a guy like Carey in the right system. The ability to move his feet will be key.

Wow, Vernon all the way down to #35. Do you think that's anywhere close to where he'll be drafted?

GoDuke!

[flyingdutchdevil]

Wow, Vernon all the way down to #35. Do you think that's anywhere close to where he'll be drafted?

GoDuke!

Certainly possible. To me, Carey is like an Okafor who tries on defense (but doesn't really succeed) and has a better (but still not very good) long-range shot.

if Okafor were drafted today, he'd likely be a fringe second-round draft pick. These "back to the basket" big men who aren't good defenders aren't very useful in the league.

I do think Carey in the second round is an absolute steal. I also think Stanley will end up a first round pick and the highest pick of the bunch. His athleticism, defense, and 3pt potential are all high qualities. He doesn't need to be a star but rather an excellent role player. Think of Danny Green light.

Tre is where I have no idea. To me, he's a second round pick. His qualities in college (leadership, defense, ability to take over the game) aren't going to be qualities in the NBA as he isn't big enough, strong enough, or fast enough. Also, I just don't trust that shot.

If I had to guess, I'd say Stanley goes in the early 20s, Carey in the late 20s, and Tre in the 30s. But I'm unfortunately not a GM.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Certainly possible. To me, Carey is like an Okafor who tries on defense (but doesn't really succeed) and has a better (but still not very good) long-range shot.

if Okafor were drafted today, he'd likely be a fringe second-round draft pick. These "back to the basket" big men who aren't good defenders aren't very useful in the league.

I do think Carey in the second round is an absolute steal. I also think Stanley will end up a first round pick and the highest pick of the bunch. His athleticism, defense, and 3pt potential are all high qualities. He doesn't need to be a star but rather an excellent role player. Think of Danny Green light.

Tre is where I have no idea. To me, he's a second round pick. His qualities in college (leadership, defense, ability to take over the game) aren't going to be qualities in the NBA as he isn't big enough, strong enough, or fast enough. Also, I just don't trust that shot.

If I had to guess, I'd say Stanley goes in the early 20s, Carey in the late 20s, and Tre in the 30s. But I'm unfortunately not a GM.

A couple of things:

Carey is absolutely better at shooting than Okafor was and will be in the NBA. Jah was an elite interior scorer but had no shot in college. He never attempted a 3 at Duke and shot 51% from the FT line. Jah did hit a pretty decent 44% of his jumpers out to 10 feet from the rim, but that's not a shot you take in the NBA these days. Vernon took 21 3's at essentially NBA range and made 38.1% to go along with a pretty decent 67.0% FT rate. Carey was struggling from the line up to the game against SFA, hitting just 54.0% of his FT attempts. From there on, he hit 70.8% of his FT attempts and 75.0% over the final 14 games. The kid can shoot a jumper much better than Jah. And Carey appears to know where to be on defense, which is something Okafor lacks. Jah is also much longer than Carey. Okafor has a 7'5" reach, which is among the longest in the NBA. Carey is a more pedestrian 7'0". Wingspan isn't everything, but it helps. The question is if Carey's limited wingspan and footspeed make him a defensive liability.

As for Tre, he may not be elite at scoring, but he is and should be an elite defender. His brother Tyus is one of the best defenders as a PG in the NBA and there's no reason to believe that Tre won't be among the better on-ball defenders as a PG from day 1. If Tre can shoot the ball well, dish it out, and make an occasional jumper, he's going to have a long NBA career even if he never starts.

[brlftz]

... His brother Tyus is one of the best defenders as a PG in the NBA...

Wait, what? Not saying you're wrong, but that would really really surprise me. He wasn't exactly known for defense previously.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Wait, what? Not saying you're wrong, but that would really really surprise me. He wasn't exactly known for defense previously.

It's true! In his years in Minnesota, he went from a defensive liability to an elite defender, ranking right up there with Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson on what was an otherwise lackluster defensive squad. By Defensive Box Plus-Minus, he has been among the leaders at his position. He's pesky.

[CDu]

It's true! In his years in Minnesota, he went from a defensive liability to an elite defender, ranking right up there with Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson on what was an otherwise lackluster defensive squad. By Defensive Box Plus-Minus, he has been among the leaders at his position. He's pesky.

Worth noting that this is really only true for one, maybe two seasons seasons. His 2017 was quite solid (0.7 DBPM) and his 2018 was great (1.7 DBPM). But in 2019 his DBPM was just okay (0.3 DBPM), and his 2020 season with Memphis was fairly pedestrian (0.1 DBPM, and a negative DRPM). So it is not clear if his defensive success in 2018 was driven by system or what, but it hasn’t been sustained.

I certainly don’t think he is a sieve, but I am not sure that elite is an accurate label of his defense anymore.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Worth noting that this is really only true for one, maybe two seasons seasons. His 2017 was quite solid (0.7 DBPM) and his 2018 was great (1.7 DBPM). But in 2019 his DBPM was just okay (0.3 DBPM), and his 2020 season with Memphis was fairly pedestrian (0.1 DBPM, and a negative DRPM). So it is not clear if his defensive success in 2018 was driven by system or what, but it hasn’t been sustained.

I certainly don’t think he is a sieve, but I am not sure that elite is an accurate label of his defense anymore.

But is he a bumslayer? 😉

[-jk]

But is he a bumslayer? 😉

I thought we were done with Game of Thrones.

-jk

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jeff Goodman at Stadium put out his own mock draft (https://watchstadium.com/jeff-goodmans-2020-nba-mock-draft-2-0-05-06-2020/) with some interesting projections for a pair of former Dukies. Goodman says that he spoke with more than a dozen NBA executives and watched countless college basketball games to put this mock together. Personally. I don't think he's as tapped into what the NBA is looking for these days as much as others. Goodman is really focused on the college game. I'd trust the mocks from Jonathan Givony of ESPN or Sam Vecenie of The Athletic before Goodman. Still. he's clearly put the work into making this mock. Here are the Dukies he has in the first round:

14. Portland Trailblazers: Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Boston Celtics: Cassius Stanley

[flyingdutchdevil]

Jeff Goodman at Stadium put out his own mock draft (https://watchstadium.com/jeff-goodmans-2020-nba-mock-draft-2-0-05-06-2020/) with some interesting projections for a pair of former Dukies. Goodman says that he spoke with more than a dozen NBA executives and watched countless college basketball games to put this mock together. Personally. I don't think he's as tapped into what the NBA is looking for these days as much as others. Goodman is really focused on the college game. I'd trust the mocks from Jonathan Givony of ESPN or Sam Vecenie of The Athletic before Goodman. Still. he's clearly put the work into making this mock. Here are the Dukies he has in the first round:

14. Portland Trailblazers: Vernon Carey, Jr.
30. Boston Celtics: Cassius Stanley

This is much more in line with what I'm thinking, although I think Carey will be high teens/low 20s.

I'd be pleasantly surprised to see Tre in the first round, but I'm not expecting it.

[beach rev]

Jeremy Woo from SI has a new mock up today. All of our guys have moved out of the first round.
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/06/03/nba-mock-draft-latest-projections

[superdave]

Jeremy Woo from SI has a new mock up today. All of our guys have moved out of the first round.
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/06/03/nba-mock-draft-latest-projections

Nobody has scouted anyone, held workouts, checked anyone's BMI, etc in months.

I guess I will wait until we have a draft date set to pay more attention to this.

[kAzE]

Jeremy Woo from SI has a new mock up today. All of our guys have moved out of the first round.
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/06/03/nba-mock-draft-latest-projections

I would be flabbergasted if 30 teams pass on Vernon Carey. I'm not saying he should go in the lottery, but come on. This kid is immensely talented. He would have been a top 5 pick 10 years ago. He'll probably be compared to Jahlil Okafor, but he's a much better shooter than Okafor from the perimeter, and he doesn't have the maturity issues. I think he'll be a very solid rotation player in the NBA for a long time.

Also, Cassius Stanley is going to be a steal for someone in the 2nd round. He might never become a great ball handler, but the 3&D potential is big time. He's going to be a major piece for whatever team he plays for.

[JasonEvans]

Woj says (https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1268600025879392257) the NBA is going to have the draft lottery on Aug 25 and the draft on October 15th.

[JasonEvans]

Jason McIntyre with a new 2020 Mock Draft... I am surprised to see his name at the top. First time I have seen Onyeka Okongwu as the #1 pick or even all that close to it in any other mocks. Seems like a reach for a big man who is not capable of stretching the defense. I thought the NBA did not value those any more?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eby0VUSUcAAW_Zk?format=jpg&name=large

[CameronBornAndBred]

I would be flabbergasted if 30 teams pass on Vernon Carey.
Has there ever been a high profile OAD from Duke not go in the first? Again...high profile, like both ACC and National FOY, 1st Team All ACC high profile.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Jason McIntyre with a new 2020 Mock Draft... I am surprised to see his name at the top. First time I have seen Onyeka Okongwu as the #1 pick or even all that close to it in any other mocks. Seems like a reach for a big man who is not capable of stretching the defense. I thought the NBA did not value those any more?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eby0VUSUcAAW_Zk?format=jpg&name=large

I follow college basketball much more than the average person, and I have to say that this will be by far the least interesting first round in a long time. If you gave the average fan that list of names, they probably couldn't tell you where half of them went to school/what country they are from. This was obviously exacerbated somewhat by the shortened season but even during the season I was thinking that it isn't a very compelling group. And that isn't just me seeing the world through Duke blue glasses...

[JasonEvans]

I follow college basketball much more than the average person, and I have to say that this will be by far the least interesting first round in a long time. If you gave the average fan that list of names, they probably couldn't tell you where half of them went to school/what country they are from. This was obviously exacerbated somewhat by the shortened season but even during the season I was thinking that it isn't a very compelling group. And that isn't just me seeing the world through Duke blue glasses...

Obi Toppin is the only sure-fire lottery pick who played for a team that was... you know... actually good last year. I mean, I guess Auburn was ok (#33 in KenPom) but after Toppin the next players from teams that matter on that board are the Florida State dudes who could fall anywhere from #10 to #25 or so. I agree, it just isn't an interesting draft.

-Jason "someone is gonna get a steal in Vernon Carey... his shot blocking and outside shot are both very underrated and I suspect he will be a solid rotation player. Hard to find those in the late first round" Evans

[Truth&Justise]

I follow college basketball much more than the average person, and I have to say that this will be by far the least interesting first round in a long time. If you gave the average fan that list of names, they probably couldn't tell you where half of them went to school/what country they are from. This was obviously exacerbated somewhat by the shortened season but even during the season I was thinking that it isn't a very compelling group. And that isn't just me seeing the world through Duke blue glasses...

Depends on how you define "interesting." Certainly not a lot of household names, but I'm positively giddy at the prospect that the draft order is totally in flux. Heck no one can even agree on which group of players should be considered for the #1 pick.

It's possible we look back on this draft and see a dearth of talent, but it's equally possible there are a dozen impact players that will be taken late--and make a lot of teams look foolish--just because no one is sure how to rank these players. The uncertainty is fun to me!

[sagegrouse]

Depends on how you define "interesting." Certainly not a lot of household names, but I'm positively giddy at the prospect that the draft order is totally in flux. Heck no one can even agree on which group of players should be considered for the #1 pick.

It's possible we look back on this draft and see a dearth of talent, but it's equally possible there are a dozen impact players that will be taken late--and make a lot of teams look foolish--just because no one is sure how to rank these players. The uncertainty is fun to me!

My interpretation is that, in the draft after Zion Williamson, everything seems like small potatoes

[luvdahops]

Depends on how you define "interesting." Certainly not a lot of household names, but I'm positively giddy at the prospect that the draft order is totally in flux. Heck no one can even agree on which group of players should be considered for the #1 pick.

It's possible we look back on this draft and see a dearth of talent, but it's equally possible there are a dozen impact players that will be taken late--and make a lot of teams look foolish--just because no one is sure how to rank these players. The uncertainty is fun to me!

Fair points, but from my seat, the consensus top ~10 prospects, in whatever order you rank them, is the least inspiring in recent memory. And by a wide margin.

[JasonEvans]

Fair points, but from my seat, the consensus top ~10 prospects, in whatever order you rank them, is the least inspiring in recent memory. And by a wide margin.

Any of the top 3 from last year would be a lock to be the #1 pick in this year's draft and picks #4 - #6 would be under serious consideration for #1 this year.
Any of the top 5 or maybe even top 7 or 8 from the 2018 draft class would be a lock to be #1 in this class.

-Jason "by the way, I suspect 2018 will go down as one of the great draft classes in history... at least 8 guys in that class seem the be future All-Stars" Evans

[MChambers]

Jason McIntyre with a new 2020 Mock Draft... I am surprised to see his name at the top. First time I have seen Onyeka Okongwu as the #1 pick or even all that close to it in any other mocks. Seems like a reach for a big man who is not capable of stretching the defense. I thought the NBA did not value those any more?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eby0VUSUcAAW_Zk?format=jpg&name=large

I have no idea who Jason McIntyre is, but Tillman at 17 and Vernon not in the first 30 seems hard to believe.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Obviously, Vernon just needs to come back. File a COVID Waiver Claim with the NCAA.

[scottdude8]

I have no idea who Jason McIntyre is, but Tillman at 17 and Vernon not in the first 30 seems hard to believe.

I saw that and thought the exact same thing, but then I thought we need to do whatever we can to put this in front of Xavier Tillman's face ASAP to get him out of East Lansing.

An interesting subplot to the CBB offseason that's gone under the radar is that Joshua Langford is apparently considering trying to make a quasi-comeback for the Spartans as a fifth-year senior after missing the last year and a half. If he returns and is even a fraction of the player he once was he'd give the Spartans exactly what that team needs, namely experienced leadership... if Tillman leaves for the draft along with the graduating Cassius Winston the Spartans will be a group of very young players who have shown flashes, but mostly underachieved relative to their potential. I see the Spartans as a team that will struggle and be a Fringe Top-25 team, especially in the B1G gauntlet, this coming season, without Tillman and Langford (although they'll of course start the season ranked highly given the media's love of Tom Izzo). With Tillman and Langford, they're a legit Top 10 team all year. With one of the two, who knows.

[johnb]

An NBA Draft? Spontaneous reactions from athletes? Highlight clips? Planned 2020-21 lineups? Count me in!
Maybe we'll have seen some actual live sports by September, but I'm not counting those chickens.

But I'll watch the draft, even if the players aren't as good as last year's crew. I want to learn which of Nigeria's 500 languages were spoken at home by Precious Achiuwa's minister parents, whether Deni Avdija is the best Israeli-Serbian basketball player of all time, and whether the group thinks Nico Manion will become the best red headed NBA player to have dual Italian citizenship.

I'm ready...

[johnb]

As for the draft, I'm guessing all 3 of our guys are a bit unlucky this year.

A Tyus-type NCAA tournament, with some decent shooting, and Tre nears the lottery.

Pre draft workouts for Cassius? 3 on 3 games? Vertical leaps? Schmoozing with guys who know his dad, the professional agent? He could have gone in the teens.

As for Carey, more time on tv would remind people that his first name isn't Jahlil or Jabari. Even if they couldn't figure that out, he could also remind them that Jahlil at 3 and Jabari at 2 were probably too high, but Vernon, Jahlil, and Jabari at 20 would, in retrospect, be just fine.

[sagegrouse]

As for the draft, I'm guessing all 3 of our guys are a bit unlucky this year.

A Tyus-type NCAA tournament, with some decent shooting, and Tre nears the lottery.

Pre draft workouts for Cassius? 3 on 3 games? Vertical leaps? Schmoozing with guys who know his dad, the professional agent? He could have gone in the teens.

As for Carey, more time on tv would remind people that his first name isn't Jahlil or Jabari. Even if they couldn't figure that out, he could also remind them that Jahlil at 3 and Jabari at 2 were probably too high, but Vernon, Jahlil, and Jabari at 20 would, in retrospect, be just fine.

I'm relaxed. Boozer -- such a magnificent talent -- was taken in the second round despite earning A-A honors his last year at Duke. He got even. Carey will do just fine no matter where drafted.

[BlueDevilStop]

I think a team is going to take a chance on Carey before where he is currently being projected. Would not be surprised if he went just outside the lottery.

[CameronBornAndBred]

There was a thread on it, not sure why it got locked, but since it was I'm starting this one.
The lottery is being held tomorrow, so we'll have a better feel for the possible picks afterwards.

Most mock drafts I've seen have our three guys going pretty late, in the mid 20s to the second round. And most of those only include Jones and Stanley.

My question is, why is Vernon regarded so lowly, and being that he is, who suggested that he take the leap after last season and why?
Obviously he is extremely talented, and got awards saying so, but the NBA seems to have other thoughts.

[JasonEvans]

I find Carey's poor draft stock somewhat mystifying. I get why he is not a lottery-level prospect because he is not a fabulous run-jump athlete and his skill set around the basket is not considered valuable in today's NBA. But it is not like finishing inside is useless and he showed himself to be a good rebounder and decent shot-blocker. More importantly, he has decent touch on his outside shot and is not reluctant to take it. I won't be at all surprised if he turns into a big who can stretch Ds, at least a little bit.

The notion that he drops to the mid-2nd round seems insane to me... but I am not a NBA GM.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The notion that he drops to the mid-2nd round seems insane to me... but I am not a NBA GM.

This is what has me asking the question. I mean, we've all heard about how K and the staff had deep ties to NBA folks, and they know the process and evaluations, and pass that knowledge along to the guys getting ready to make the leap. I've not seen one mock that has ever had Vernon in the lottery, and as noted, most don't even have him in the first round. It's not like some guy that is expected to go high, and then the next day people are scratching their heads wondering why he dropped. In this case the surprise will be if he actually does go in the first, much less the top 20. With that kind of risk, why was he advised to leave? I'm assuming he was advised to make the move, maybe he wasn't and elected to jump anyway, but I've not heard anything but support for his decision.
That is literally millions of dollars left on the table.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

This is what has me asking the question. I mean, we've all heard about how K and the staff had deep ties to NBA folks, and they know the process and evaluations, and pass that knowledge along to the guys getting ready to make the leap. I've not seen one mock that has ever had Vernon in the lottery, and as noted, most don't even have him in the first round. It's not like some guy that is expected to go high, and then the next day people are scratching their heads wondering why he dropped. In this case the surprise will be if he actually does go in the first, much less the top 20. With that kind of risk, why was he advised to leave? I'm assuming he was advised to make the move, maybe he wasn't and elected to jump anyway, but I've not heard anything but support for his decision.
That is literally millions of dollars left on the table.

Unless the NBA has a major paradigm shift in terms of what teams value, what is going to change for him in a year? Unless he really, really loves being in school, he won't gain anything from sticking around. He could win National Player of the Year and it wouldn't change much. This is part of why I'm not a huge NBA fan (not in terms of Carey specifically but the changes in what is prioritized in the game).

[CameronBornAndBred]

Unless the NBA has a major paradigm shift in terms of what teams value, what is going to change for him in a year? Unless he really, really loves being in school, he won't gain anything from sticking around. He could win National Player of the Year and it wouldn't change much. This is part of why I'm not a huge NBA fan (not in terms of Carey specifically but the changes in what is prioritized in the game).

Your argument says that K and Company would say to him "You're really good, but missing some things that NBA is looking for. However, you've hit your peak, and we can't teach you and help you improve, so best wishes."

[cato]

I find Carey's poor draft stock somewhat mystifying. I get why he is not a lottery-level prospect because he is not a fabulous run-jump athlete and his skill set around the basket is not considered valuable in today's NBA. But it is not like finishing inside is useless and he showed himself to be a good rebounder and decent shot-blocker. More importantly, he has decent touch on his outside shot and is not reluctant to take it. I won't be at all surprised if he turns into a big who can stretch Ds, at least a little bit.

The notion that he drops to the mid-2nd round seems insane to me... but I am not a NBA GM.

Me too. I wonder if he will be the next Carlos Boozer? They are not an exact match in game or physique, but are both excellent post players that seem to be undervalued by the NBA at this point in their career.

My guess is that Carey does not fall into the second round and someone snaps him up at great value mid-to-late first round. But I’ve been wrong before, once or twice, and it might happen again.

[CameronBornAndBred]

This post lottery mock draft on ESPN has every single one of our guys going 2nd round, with Stanley last at 50th.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/29695731/nba-mock-draft-projected-picks-big-lottery-winners

[Nugget]

This post lottery mock draft on ESPN has every single one of our guys going 2nd round, with Stanley last at 50th.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/29695731/nba-mock-draft-projected-picks-big-lottery-winners

Seems like one could reasonably see flips between Udoka Azubuike (30) and Carey (32) or between Cassius Winston (29) and either Tre or Devon Dotson (35 and 36), in which case it's still possible Carey or Tre could go first.

ESPN putting Cole Anthony outside the lottery would be a big fall below expectations for him.

I'm a little surprised by how highly rated FSU's guys have been -- Vassell and Patrick Williams seem like consensus Top 15 picks and are 11 and 13 here.

The stats don't seem to show much difference between, Vassell (11) and Cassius (50), who are both listed at 6-6, other than, I guess, Vassell was a bit better 3 point shooter this year (though their FT rates are almost identical) and Vassell is, oddly, a full year younger than Cassius, despite having played 2 years at FSU:

GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
30 28.8 49.0 41.5 73.8 5.1 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.8 12.7

GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
29 27.4 47.4 36.0 73.3 4.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.2 1.9 12.6

[CDu]

Seems like one could reasonably see flips between Udoka Azubuike (30) and Carey (32) or between Cassius Winston (29) and either Tre or Devon Dotson (35 and 36), in which case it's still possible Carey or Tre could go first.

ESPN putting Cole Anthony outside the lottery would be a big fall below expectations for him.

I'm a little surprised by how highly rated FSU's guys have been -- Vassell and Patrick Williams seem like consensus Top 15 picks and are 11 and 13 here.

The stats don't seem to show much difference between, Vassell (11) and Cassius (50), who are both listed at 6-6, other than, I guess, Vassell was a bit better 3 point shooter this year (though their FT rates are almost identical) and Vassell is, oddly, a full year younger than Cassius, despite having played 2 years at FSU:

GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
30 28.8 49.0 41.5 73.8 5.1 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.8 12.7

GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
29 27.4 47.4 36.0 73.3 4.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.2 1.9 12.6

Age does factor in here. As does defense, where Vassell is a stud. As does the fact that Vassell is a lot longer and perhaps even taller as well. That, and the more advanced metrics all lean heavily towards Vassell. He doubled Stanley in BPM, and comfortably bested him in PER and win shares per 40 minutes.

[brevity]

This post lottery mock draft on ESPN has every single one of our guys going 2nd round, with Stanley last at 50th.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/29695731/nba-mock-draft-projected-picks-big-lottery-winners

I imagine there is less enthusiasm on DBR about the actual NBA Draft Lottery because it probably won't have a Duke player, but here is the order.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves
2. Golden State Warriors
3. Charlotte Hornets
4. Chicago Bulls
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
6. Atlanta Hawks
7. Detroit Pistons
8. New York Knicks
9. Washington Wizards
10. Phoenix Suns
11. San Antonio Spurs
12. Sacramento Kings
13. New Orleans Pelicans
14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis Grizzlies)

How neatly divided: West, West, East, East, East, East, East, East, East, West, West, West, West, East (from West). Watch the video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6wODj7aw2A) if you are interested.

11321

Fun fact: two of these people were in the movie Twister. Jami Gertz played Dr. Melissa Reeves, and Trajan Langdon was the Category F5 tornado.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I imagine there is less enthusiasm on DBR about the actual NBA Draft Lottery because it probably won't have a Duke player, but here is the order.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves
2. Golden State Warriors
3. Charlotte Hornets
4. Chicago Bulls
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
6. Atlanta Hawks
7. Detroit Pistons
8. New York Knicks
9. Washington Wizards
10. Phoenix Suns
11. San Antonio Spurs
12. Sacramento Kings
13. New Orleans Pelicans
14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis Grizzlies)

How neatly divided: West, West, East, East, East, East, East, East, East, West, West, West, West, East (from West). Watch the video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6wODj7aw2A) if you are interested.

11321

Fun fact: two of these people were in the movie Twister. Jami Gertz played Dr. Melissa Reeves, and Trajan Langdon was the Category F5 tornado.

A coupla things:

1. New York got screwed. Again. And I fear the Knicks are gonna go something really stupid to get LaMelo. Cus you know what always works in the modern NBA? Having a 1-2 combo (with RJ Barrett) that can't shoot 3s...

2. The Dubs are going to be fun to watch in the offseason. There is zero chance they keep that pick, which is either Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, or James Wiseman. Three really good, young players. Couple that pick with other picks/young players/Wiggins and you can get any disgruntled star.

3. I like what the Timerwolves are building. I assume Edwards is the natural choice here. But regardless of who they draft, that team is going to be awwwwwwful defensively. KAT and D'Angelo are already poor defensively; adding Edwards/Ball would be a disaster.

4. What the hell are the Bulls gonna do? You already have a weird core in White, LaVine, Carter, and the Finnish Flash, but those pieces don't really work (okay. LaVine on any team doesn't work). Another fun team to watch during the draft.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I don't follow the NBA as closely as others here but I was struck by the talk of teams near the top (such as the Warriors) expecting to trade down. Last time I looked, it takes two teams to make a trade. If there is not a really compelling reason to make a trade, why would a team give up a lot to move up? I don't see teams with top picks getting that much in return for those picks. Maybe it is just a lack of hype because most of the top picks don't come from blue blood college teams, but this seems to be one of the weakest drafts in a long time.

[JNort]

Seems like one could reasonably see flips between Udoka Azubuike (30) and Carey (32) or between Cassius Winston (29) and either Tre or Devon Dotson (35 and 36), in which case it's still possible Carey or Tre could go first.

ESPN putting Cole Anthony outside the lottery would be a big fall below expectations for him.

I'm a little surprised by how highly rated FSU's guys have been -- Vassell and Patrick Williams seem like consensus Top 15 picks and are 11 and 13 here.

The stats don't seem to show much difference between, Vassell (11) and Cassius (50), who are both listed at 6-6, other than, I guess, Vassell was a bit better 3 point shooter this year (though their FT rates are almost identical) and Vassell is, oddly, a full year younger than Cassius, despite having played 2 years at FSU:

GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
30 28.8 49.0 41.5 73.8 5.1 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 0.8 12.7

GP MIN FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
29 27.4 47.4 36.0 73.3 4.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 2.2 1.9 12.6

If I got to pick for a team no way would Cole Anthony go outside the top 5 to 7 range.

Cassius is a steal if he's not in the lottery

[scottdude8]

A coupla things:

1. New York got screwed. Again. And I fear the Knicks are gonna go something really stupid to get LaMelo. Cus you know what always works in the modern NBA? Having a 1-2 combo (with RJ Barrett) that can't shoot 3s...

2. The Dubs are going to be fun to watch in the offseason. There is zero chance they keep that pick, which is either Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, or James Wiseman. Three really good, young players. Couple that pick with other picks/young players/Wiggins and you can get any disgruntled star.

3. I like what the Timerwolves are building. I assume Edwards is the natural choice here. But regardless of who they draft, that team is going to be awwwwwwful defensively. KAT and D'Angelo are already poor defensively; adding Edwards/Ball would be a disaster.

4. What the hell are the Bulls gonna do? You already have a weird core in White, LaVine, Carter, and the Finnish Flash, but those pieces don't really work (okay. LaVine on any team doesn't work). Another fun team to watch during the draft.


I don't follow the NBA as closely as others here but I was struck by the talk of teams near the top (such as the Warriors) expecting to trade down. Last time I looked, it takes two teams to make a trade. If there is not a really compelling reason to make a trade, why would a team give up a lot to move up? I don't see teams with top picks getting that much in return for those picks. Maybe it is just a lack of hype because most of the top picks don't come from blue blood college teams, but this seems to be one of the weakest drafts in a long time.

I, for one, don't see it at all as a done deal that the Warriors will trade the pick. One reason is what CrazyNotCrazy said: with there being no clear-cut No. 2 pick, is there going to be a team that views that as a huge asset, or valuable enough of one for the Warriors to get what they want out of it?

Something else to keep in mind that I think is overlooked: the salary cap. Valuable rookies tend to outperform their cap hit, and the NBA's rules are such that you can go over the cap to resign you're own rookies in many situations where you couldn't do so to get a free agent. If I was the Warriors, who have huge money tied up into 3 (maybe 4 if you think they're going to keep Wiggins) players, I'd see the No. 2 pick as a way to get a significant piece for the next 4-5 years that will cost less than a similar caliber veteran role player.

One more thing to consider: while Edwards and Ball wouldn't fill a need for the Warriors, who are obviously talented on the perimeter, Wiseman would, since they don't have a top-tier center on the team. Even if Wiseman isn't a star, but just a solid NBA center, he improves their starting lineup (Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Wiseman could be scary).

[Truth&Justise]

I imagine there is less enthusiasm on DBR about the actual NBA Draft Lottery because it probably won't have a Duke player, but here is the order.

1. Minnesota Timberwolves
2. Golden State Warriors
3. Charlotte Hornets
4. Chicago Bulls
5. Cleveland Cavaliers
6. Atlanta Hawks
7. Detroit Pistons
8. New York Knicks
9. Washington Wizards
10. Phoenix Suns
11. San Antonio Spurs
12. Sacramento Kings
13. New Orleans Pelicans
14. Boston Celtics (from Memphis Grizzlies)

How neatly divided: West, West, East, East, East, East, East, East, East, West, West, West, West, East (from West). Watch the video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6wODj7aw2A) if you are interested.

11321

Fun fact: two of these people were in the movie Twister. Jami Gertz played Dr. Melissa Reeves, and Trajan Langdon was the Category F5 tornado.

I am sad my beleaguered Washington Wizards did not move up in the draft. One of the weird quirks of the NBA bubble is that the bubble games did not impact lottery odds for teams not invited. Thus, the Wizards, who had the 9th worse record at the start of the bubble, lost a bunch and actually fell below the Hornets to 8th-worst in terms of winning percentage. But Charlotte, not Washington, got to keep the 8th-best odds for the lottery. Without that rule, it might have been the Wizards, not the Hornets, who moved up to the top of the draft.

That said, I'm looking forward to drafting one spot behind the Knicks. I'm very hopeful that in a few years we'll look back at this and chuckle about how "in 2020 the Knicks drafted X, just one pick before perennial all-star Y."

[JasonEvans]

I, for one, don't see it at all as a done deal that the Warriors will trade the pick. One reason is what CrazyNotCrazy said: with there being no clear-cut No. 2 pick, is there going to be a team that views that as a huge asset, or valuable enough of one for the Warriors to get what they want out of it?

Something else to keep in mind that I think is overlooked: the salary cap. Valuable rookies tend to outperform their cap hit, and the NBA's rules are such that you can go over the cap to resign you're own rookies in many situations where you couldn't do so to get a free agent. If I was the Warriors, who have huge money tied up into 3 (maybe 4 if you think they're going to keep Wiggins) players, I'd see the No. 2 pick as a way to get a significant piece for the next 4-5 years that will cost less than a similar caliber veteran role player.

One more thing to consider: while Edwards and Ball wouldn't fill a need for the Warriors, who are obviously talented on the perimeter, Wiseman would, since they don't have a top-tier center on the team. Even if Wiseman isn't a star, but just a solid NBA center, he improves their starting lineup (Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Wiseman could be scary).

I'm with Scott here. The Warriors want to win more rings, but they also want to be like the Spurs and have a title contender for decades. Steph is 32. Dray is 30, and Klay is 30. I think the Warriors would love to get a player who can step in as those guys hit their mid-30s to keep the team in contention.

-Jason "given how much the Warriors value shooting, I think Ball would be a poor fit for them. I think they would prefer Edwards or Wiseman (or Toppin?)" Evans

[tommy]

Age does factor in here. As does defense, where Vassell is a stud. As does the fact that Vassell is a lot longer and perhaps even taller as well. That, and the more advanced metrics all lean heavily towards Vassell. He doubled Stanley in BPM, and comfortably bested him in PER and win shares per 40 minutes.

That's true, and while I love Cassius for sure having watched him for many years -- and he's a GREAT kid -- the big thing is that he didn't show anything off the bounce for us. He was almost all catch-and-shoot. Nothing creating off the dribble, and not much finishing in traffic either. And truth be told, he proved to be an above-average shooter, but not a true plus shooter, and the same goes for his defense. He can improve a lot of that, and his athleticism will give him a chance, but he's not in Vassell's league right now as a prospect.

[awhom111]

Here is the latest update on early entry candidates:
https://www.nba.com/article/2020/08/21/early-entry-candidates-update-official-release

There are rumors that the NBA will push back the draft as they try to determine the best time to start the next season from a financial perspective. I am going to be critical about that approach again as it leaves a lot of players in limbo, especially since there seems to have been no information about impacts on the G League and whether they will have a full season or at least a full salary. Players who are more in the fringe prospect range have really had to think about tough decisions about trying to at least make it to training camp versus trying the overseas route immediately.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Vernon Carey has been working since the season ended. The National Freshman of the Year and All-American has dropped close to 30 pounds ahead of the NBA Draft.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EmHBug9WoAABzmh?format=jpg&name=small

[Billy Dat]

Good article by the Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks about the difference between Duke and Kentucky draft prospects in the One-and-Done era and how to evaluate kids based on the K vs Cal approach to program management.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/11/6/21551113/nba-draft-duke-kentucky-players

[sagegrouse]

Good article by the Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks about the difference between Duke and Kentucky draft prospects in the One-and-Done era and how to evaluate kids based on the K vs Cal approach to program management.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/11/6/21551113/nba-draft-duke-kentucky-players

Four word summary -- "Duke because more minutes."

[DukieTiger]

Good article by the Ringer's Jonathan Tjarks about the difference between Duke and Kentucky draft prospects in the One-and-Done era and how to evaluate kids based on the K vs Cal approach to program management.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2020/11/6/21551113/nba-draft-duke-kentucky-players

Super interesting article, though I question how much homeboy watches college if he thinks Austin Rivers didn't have the ball in his hands during his time at Duke.

I think I buy some of what he's selling, except that it felt like he commended the "spread it around" mentality at the expense of the star-oriented approach K takes.

K gets plenty of role guys and secondary stars drafted, and gets even more guys at least an NBA shot. Marshall Plumlee, anyone?? Quinn Cook?? Duke's star-heavy approach didn't hurt them too much (Narrator: It actually helped them). If you're telling me there's been 1 or 2 grumbling parties (who still got drafted in the lottery ;) ) in 10 years of OAD era at this point, I'd say that's pretty good. But please don't try to imply that there's something inherent about the guys Duke recruits that makes them unwilling to play in a team concept, while these Kentucky recruits are so selfless. You're willfully looking certain Kentucky guys who... aren't the best teammates... Also, um - you know who Cal desperately recruited? Definitely every single one of Duke's most "selfish" players.

And I'd love to hear him flesh out his reasoning that being the featured player on a team allows that player's weaknesses to be hidden, more so than a player who is on a team that spreads it around a bit more. That seems... counter-intuitive to me. Feels like he's blaming each system (Cal's system hiding SGA's talent, K's system hiding Jah's weaknesses) for poor scouting. Plenty of scouts were high on SGA and low(er) on Okafor.

[awhom111]

The final early entry list is up:
https://www.nba.com/news/23-early-entry-candidates-withdraw-from-from-nba-draft-2020-presented-by-state-farm

[Billy Dat]

GO TRE GO!!!!!!!!!

Jonathan Givony
@DraftExpress
Here's Duke's Tre Jones going an impressive 18/20 in the 3-point Star Drill. Jones also conducted a simulated NBA Combine in Santa Barbara, where
@P3sportscience says he "put together one of the more complete performances that P3 has ever collected in basketball."

@DraftExpress
"Tre set facility records in the 5y Slide (a test of lateral change of direction ability). His Drop Jump displacement (35”) ranks in the top 5 P3 has ever collected, possessing elite movement in both the vertical and lateral planes." Jones also tested a 40 inch max vertical leap.

[flyingdutchdevil]

GO TRE GO!!!!!!!!!

Jonathan Givony
@DraftExpress
Here's Duke's Tre Jones going an impressive 18/20 in the 3-point Star Drill. Jones also conducted a simulated NBA Combine in Santa Barbara, where
@P3sportscience says he "put together one of the more complete performances that P3 has ever collected in basketball."

@DraftExpress
"Tre set facility records in the 5y Slide (a test of lateral change of direction ability). His Drop Jump displacement (35”) ranks in the top 5 P3 has ever collected, possessing elite movement in both the vertical and lateral planes." Jones also tested a 40 inch max vertical leap.

Is this the right Tre? You sure the vertical isn't Tre Duval?

If not, holy moly. Jones's weaknesses were a) shooting and b) athleticism. If those are now strengths (or at least no longer weaknesses), this kid has to be a 1st rounder.

[jv001]

Is this the right Tre? You sure the vertical isn't Tre Duval?

If not, holy moly. Jones's weaknesses were a) shooting and b) athleticism. If those are now strengths (or at least no longer weaknesses), this kid has to be a 1st rounder.

I would believe the Tre Jones vertical over Tre Duval hitting 18-20 three pointers. :cool:

GoDuke!

[jimsumner]

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2020/11/14/21563553/2020-nba-draft-prospects-for-tre-jones-vernon-carey-and-cassius-stanley-duke-basketball

For those of you who don't look at the home page.

[-jk]

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2020/11/14/21563553/2020-nba-draft-prospects-for-tre-jones-vernon-carey-and-cassius-stanley-duke-basketball

For those of you who don't look at the home page.

Thanks, Jim!

-jk

[budwom]

Vern has (finally) found his way onto several first round lists, after been viciously undervalued for a few months by many.

A good team is going to get him late in the first round.

[dukelifer]

GO TRE GO!!!!!!!!!

Jonathan Givony
@DraftExpress
Here's Duke's Tre Jones going an impressive 18/20 in the 3-point Star Drill. Jones also conducted a simulated NBA Combine in Santa Barbara, where
@P3sportscience says he "put together one of the more complete performances that P3 has ever collected in basketball."

@DraftExpress
"Tre set facility records in the 5y Slide (a test of lateral change of direction ability). His Drop Jump displacement (35”) ranks in the top 5 P3 has ever collected, possessing elite movement in both the vertical and lateral planes." Jones also tested a 40 inch max vertical leap.

Wait was Tre Jones holding back? I have never heard of anyone getting better after they were 19. Very strange.

[SouthernDukie]

ABC/ESPN Mock Draft Special did not include one Dukie in their first round projections. That has to be the first in quite some time, no?

[Bluedog]

ABC/ESPN Mock Draft Special did not include one Dukie in their first round projections. That has to be the first in quite some time, no?

I believe we've had a top 3 pick six years in a row. Pretty remarkable.

2010 draft was last year without first rounder although Elliot Williams was (transfer to Memphis).

[DavidBenAkiva]

Seth Davis, writing for The Athletic, had a long article on 50 prospects that combines the feedback from multiple scouts into one take. He calls this amalgam "Finch" as if he is one scout. I like these write-ups as it gives freedom for scouts to say what they want knowing they can be anonymous even if they only contribute one sentence about a player. In this pre-draft write-up, "Finch" gave some fairly typical takes about the Duke prospects with a few standout lines that I will summarize below. I'd post the whole quote, but The Athletic is a subscription site.

Vernon Carey, Jr.
Questions about his weight, his ability to defend in space and shoot, and whether he can get away with bullying people down low like he did at Duke. Still, the production in college was undeniable. One scout thinks he'll go in the 20's.

Tre Jones
He's a proven player, perhaps a 3rd guard more than a backup PG, although there remain questions about his shot. Coach K had him dominate the ball because that's what the team needed. He has proven people wrong everywhere he's been.

Cassius Stanley
We know about the athleticism. He's a future Dunk Contest winner. He's being overlooked a little bit right now and could go late 1st/early 2nd round. He's a future 3-and-D if he continues to work on his defense. The shot and ball-handling skills need to improve.

All told, these are fairly solid write-ups of the three Duke players likely to get drafted. It's not out of the realm of possibility that all three could get drafted by the early 2nd round and there's even a slim chance all go in the 1st round. It's easy to see the roles that Jones and Stanley could play in the NBA. With Carey, I think it's a simple thing: if he can defend in space, he's going to have a role in the NBA for a long time. The commitment to dropping weight gives me hope that he will do that. I am not sure that any will go in the first round, but I feel pretty good about all 3 getting drafted and having a shot at making a career of it.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I believe we've had a top 3 pick six years in a row. Pretty remarkable.

2010 draft was last year without first rounder although Elliot Williams was (transfer to Memphis).

Remarkable indeed. I think we'll have at least 1 first rounder. All of the 3 Dukies are flawed in some manner (Vernon too old school, Tre isn't a good shooter, Cassius is fairly one-dimensional), but I can see successful, development-based franchises (like the Heat, Raptors, Nuggets, Celtics) taking a chance on any of these players as they have the opportunity to be really good role players in the NBA. None has "star" or "franchise player" written on them, and that's okay.

I have no idea which player will go in the first round, but I'm confident at least one will.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Tre Jones
He's a proven player, perhaps a 3rd guard more than a backup PG, although there remain questions about his shot. Coach K had him dominate the ball because that's what the team needed. He has proven people wrong everywhere he's been.


That's an odd statement. Where's he been besides Duke? Were lots of people not expecting him to be great at Duke? (I'm sure a couple folks had doubts, but he's implying it was universal.)

[dukelifer]

That's an odd statement. Where's he been besides Duke? Were lots of people not expecting him to be great at Duke? (I'm sure a couple folks had doubts, but he's implying it was universal.)

I remember his Y league days- folks were doubting he could keep up with Jimmy Butson- that kid was twice his size.

[CDu]

I'm'll LOL at Seth Davis a bit here:


Tre Jones
He's a proven player, perhaps a 3rd guard more than a backup PG, although there remain questions about his shot. Coach K had him dominate the ball because that's what the team needed. He has proven people wrong everywhere he's been.

Jones was a top-15 prospect and McDonald's All-American coming out of high school. I'm not sure how many doubters he had or how many places he has "proven people wrong." The one question about him coming in to college remains: will he be a good enough shooter?


Cassius Stanley
We know about the athleticism. He's a future Dunk Contest winner. He's being overlooked a little bit right now and could go late 1st/early 2nd round. He's a future 3-and-D if he continues to work on his defense. The shot and ball-handling skills need to improve.

He's a future 3-and-D guy... if he continues to improve his defense... and if he continues to improve his shot?


It's easy to see the roles that Jones and Stanley could play in the NBA. With Carey, I think it's a simple thing: if he can defend in space, he's going to have a role in the NBA for a long time. The commitment to dropping weight gives me hope that he will do that. I am not sure that any will go in the first round, but I feel pretty good about all 3 getting drafted and having a shot at making a career of it.

Jones is easy to see his role in the NBA. At worst, he's a backup PG who defends and distributes well. Given his pedigree (Duke and Tyus' brother), he'll get a lot of opportunity, and he'll make the most of it.

Stanley is hard. Ideally, he becomes a 3 and D guy. But the shot is an uncertainty and the defense is an uncertainty. And he's smallish for his wing spot. Unless he gets a lot better with his ballhandling and ability to create his own shot, he may have a tough time sticking in the league. He's got the athleticism, so hopefully the shooting and defense come with time.

Carey is also hard. His game is antiquated, and the league is going away from that more and more. And he isn't a physical freak (not overly tall or long-armed) that can make up for playing a role that the league doesn't value as much anymore. He's an undersized 5 in the NBA. You mention the ability to defend away from the rim, and that's certainly the biggest key to him sticking. But he also needs to prove that his offensive skill set can transition to the league, where he won't be able to play bully ball to get buckets and will likely be asked to play more away from the rim.

I am not saying that Carey and Stanley fail to make it. Just that they have a challenging path ahead of them as the transition to the NBA will be VERY tough at their positions.

[DavidBenAkiva]

That's an odd statement. Where's he been besides Duke? Were lots of people not expecting him to be great at Duke? (I'm sure a couple folks had doubts, but he's implying it was universal.)

I took it to mean that people doubted he would be as good as his brother in high school, on the AAU circuit, and then at Duke. If memory serves, Tre was a late riser in the high school ranks. He shot up to become the top-rated PG recruit or very nearly the top-rated PG recruit. The #1 PG was Ashton Hagans. Hagans and Jones were considered comparable prospects at one point and even before the 2019-20 college basketball season. Jones continues to impress while it's possible Hagans goes undrafted after Wednesday. The main question for both entering this season was whether either could shoot the ball. Jones improved in that area while Hagans did not.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Carey is also hard. His game is antiquated, and the league is going away from that more and more. And he isn't a physical freak (not overly tall or long-armed) that can make up for playing a role that the league doesn't value as much anymore. He's an undersized 5 in the NBA. You mention the ability to defend away from the rim, and that's certainly the biggest key to him sticking. But he also needs to prove that his offensive skill set can transition to the league, where he won't be able to play bully ball to get buckets and will likely be asked to play more away from the rim.

I don't disagree with almost everything you've written, but I do think Carey's going to be able to score around the rim. Carey is not a physical outlier in the NBA, but he's still really big and strong. In a league that is playing Jayson Tatum at the 4 and multiple undersized guards on the court at the same time, I do believe that Carey will have no trouble scoring inside. Jahlil Okafor does this all the time. It's the other aspects of Jah's game that haven't translated. Zion was super efficient playing bully ball in his rookie season. Most nights, I think Carey will be able to give a team 10-15 relatively efficient points off the bench at minimum. Now, will he prevent the other team from scoring 20 points off of him at the same time?

[DukieTiger]

I'm'll LOL at Seth Davis a bit here:



Jones was a top-15 prospect and McDonald's All-American coming out of high school. I'm not sure how many doubters he had or how many places he has "proven people wrong." The one question about him coming in to college remains: will he be a good enough shooter?



He's a future 3-and-D guy... if he continues to improve his defense... and if he continues to improve his shot?



Jones is easy to see his role in the NBA. At worst, he's a backup PG who defends and distributes well. Given his pedigree (Duke and Tyus' brother), he'll get a lot of opportunity, and he'll make the most of it.

Stanley is hard. Ideally, he becomes a 3 and D guy. But the shot is an uncertainty and the defense is an uncertainty. And he's smallish for his wing spot. Unless he gets a lot better with his ballhandling and ability to create his own shot, he may have a tough time sticking in the league. He's got the athleticism, so hopefully the shooting and defense come with time.

Carey is also hard. His game is antiquated, and the league is going away from that more and more. And he isn't a physical freak (not overly tall or long-armed) that can make up for playing a role that the league doesn't value as much anymore. He's an undersized 5 in the NBA. You mention the ability to defend away from the rim, and that's certainly the biggest key to him sticking. But he also needs to prove that his offensive skill set can transition to the league, where he won't be able to play bully ball to get buckets and will likely be asked to play more away from the rim.

I am not saying that Carey and Stanley fail to make it. Just that they have a challenging path ahead of them as the transition to the NBA will be VERY tough at their positions.

I mean, I wouldn't laugh at Seth (ok, I would but not for this reason) - these are professional scouts who are saying these things!

Helps you understand why teams make some draft decisions that are... wacky...

[bundabergdevil]

Anthony Edwards goes first.

Note to every team: Stay away from Ball.