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Troublemaker
05-28-2019, 12:11 PM
That dreaded (to some) and wonderful (to others) time has arrived. With Javin and Marques having made their decisions, the roster is set, and it's time to discuss what people expect the rotation and minutes distribution to look like for next season in men's basketball.

Let's try to put all the rotation / minutes discussion into this thread so we don't hijack other threads. As always on DBR, some amount of hijack is going to occur regardless.

roywhite
05-28-2019, 12:18 PM
That dreaded (to some) and wonderful (to others) time has arrived. With Javin and Marques having made their decisions, the roster is set, and it's time to discuss what people expect the rotation and minutes distribution to look like for next season in men's basketball.

Let's try to put all the rotation / minutes discussion into this thread so we don't hijack other threads. As always on DBR, some amount of hijack is going to occur regardless.

If the minutes discussion has started, can the season be far behind?

Well, yes, but the 2019 recruits are on campus or soon will be, and these discussions do provide some interesting takes for our off-season contemplation.

Troublemaker
05-28-2019, 12:18 PM
Looking back, this seems to be the latest this thread has ever started, likely due to Javin and Marques doing their due diligence in working out for NBA teams.

2014-15 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on March 31st
(https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33629-Musings-Of-2014-15-Starters-amp-Rotation-Players)
2015-16 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on April 27th
(https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?35964-2015-16-Minutes-Discussion)
2016-17 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on May 19th (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?37991-MBB-2016-17-Minutes-Discussion-Thread)

2017-18 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on May 15th (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?40103-2017-18-Minutes-Discussion-(Post-Duval))

2018-19 Rotation / Minutes thread was started on April 16th (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?41882-MBB-2018-19-Rotation-Minutes-Thread)

JasonEvans
05-28-2019, 12:22 PM
I dunno about minutes (yet) but I am very excited for the practice battles we will see on a team that is clearly 2 deep at every position:

C- Carey, DeLaurier
PF- Hurt, White
SF- Moore, Baker
SG- O'Connell, Stanley
PG- Jones, Goldwire

And if someone is a little banged up, super sub JRob can fill in and we can move dudes around to make it work. Some awesome practice development will be happening for this squad!

-Jason "Duke has no positions, I know, but you know what I mean" Evans

Truth&Justise
05-28-2019, 12:42 PM
Only one logical assumption: Coach K embraces his twilight years by playing Michael Savarino 40 minutes/g.

sagegrouse
05-28-2019, 12:49 PM
I dunno about minutes (yet) but I am very excited for the practice battles we will see on a team that is clearly 2 deep at every position:

C- Carey, DeLaurier
PF- Hurt, White
SF- Moore, Baker
SG- O'Connell, Stanley
PG- Jones, Goldwire

And if someone is a little banged up, super sub JRob can fill in and we can move dudes around to make it work. Some awesome practice development will be happening for this squad!

-Jason "Duke has no positions, I know, but you know what I mean" Evans

Looks like ten players may achieve "meaningful minutes" -- I am eschewing the quasi-religious term, "rotation."

Here are returning players and minutes for the past season --

DeLaurier - 618
Jack White - 715
Alex O'C. - 505
Tre - 1,230
Goldwire - 301

There are very few uninjured Duke players playing on a highly ranked team one year whose have declined the next. (Who besides Paulus?) Goldwire has the fewest on this list, but he is one of only two point guards on the roster and probably will be Tre's primary backup.

Of course, would-be red shirt Joey Baker played only 18 minutes. I thought he "looked good" on the court and had good shooting form, but, aren't his playing prospects in 2020 a big question mark? And, why wouldn't he compete for minutes?

Most everyone assumes all the recruits are likely to play:

Vernon Carey - C
Matthew Hurt - PF
Wendell Moore - SF
Cassius Stanley - SG

Looks like ten players with good arguments to spend a lot of time on the court.

Troublemaker
05-28-2019, 12:50 PM
I wanted to try to get one in before my opinion is influenced by the Kedsy model's projection.

Also, I'm not saying this is how I would do it. (I would probably start Matthew or Jack at the 4). But I think Javin's going to be such a great leader / communicator for this team that Coach K is going to try this. Also, obviously Javin's foul rate will need to continue to decline, as it has over the course of his career, for this big lineup to be feasible.





Starters

Rotation

in blowouts


36
So TreJones
4
Jr Goldwire




32
Fr Moore



Fr Stanley


32
Fr Hurt
16
So Baker

{Jr O'Connell}


30
Sr DeLaurier
20
Sr White

Sr Robinson


30
Fr Carey

Neals384
05-28-2019, 01:10 PM
That dreaded (to some) and wonderful (to others) time has arrived. With Javin and Marques having made their decisions, the roster is set, and it's time to discuss what people expect the rotation and minutes distribution to look like for next season in men's basketball.

Let's try to put all the rotation / minutes discussion into this thread so we don't hijack other threads. As always on DBR, some amount of hijack is going to occur regardless.

Wait! Itís still too soon. I heard Zion is thinking about coming back. :cool:

kAzE
05-28-2019, 01:40 PM
I think the starting 5 will be Carey/Hurt/Jones/Moore plus either O'Connell or Baker. I don't see Hurt playing SF at all. Javin and Jack will be the first 2 guys off the bench.

bluedev_92
05-28-2019, 02:00 PM
I wanted to try to get one in before my opinion is influenced by the Kedsy model's projection.

Also, I'm not saying this is how I would do it. (I would probably start Matthew or Jack at the 4). But I think Javin's going to be such a great leader / communicator for this team that Coach K is going to try this. Also, obviously Javin's foul rate will need to continue to decline, as it has over the course of his career, for this big lineup to be feasible.





Starters

Rotation

in blowouts


36
So TreJones
4
Jr Goldwire




32
Fr Moore



Fr Stanley


32
Fr Hurt
16
So Baker

{Jr O'Connell}


30
Sr DeLaurier
20
Sr White

Sr Robinson


30
Fr Carey






I see Alex solidly in the rotation (not just blowouts as above)

Troublemaker
05-28-2019, 02:18 PM
I think the starting 5 will be Carey/Hurt/Jones/Moore plus either O'Connell or Baker. I don't see Hurt playing SF at all. Javin and Jack will be the first 2 guys off the bench.

That's a reasonable (and should be popular) prediction. For me, I just think Coach K's going to want to start one of his senior captains. I think Javin, but it could be Jack.


I see Alex solidly in the rotation (not just blowouts as above)

That's certainly very reasonable. He would have to displace someone from my predicted rotation, though, because Coach K isn't going beyond 7.5 guys.

NSDukeFan
05-28-2019, 02:29 PM
That's a reasonable (and should be popular) prediction. For me, I just think Coach K's going to want to start one of his senior captains. I think Javin, but it could be Jack.



That's certainly very reasonable. He would have to displace someone from my predicted rotation, though, because Coach K isn't going beyond 7.5 guys.

I’m not saying you’re right or wrong, but it’s certainly possible that Coach is happy to start his sophomore captain.


My initial thoughts would be O’Connell ahead of Baker and Moore, but it would be nice if your scenario played out.

Kedsy
05-28-2019, 02:41 PM
There are very few uninjured Duke players playing on a highly ranked team one year whose have declined the next. (Who besides Paulus?)

Dan Meagher*, David Henderson*, John Smith, Carmen Wallace, Greg Newton, Ricky Price, Taymon Domzalski, Shav Randolph*, Casey Sanders, Nick Horvath, Marty Pocius, Dave McClure, Andre Dawkins, Josh Hairston, Rasheed Sulaimon. Off the top of my head. (I expect there are others.)


* - Meagher, D Henderson, & Randolph didn't decline by a whole bunch, but they did decline

ChillinDuke
05-28-2019, 02:48 PM
I'll take a pre-Kedsy shot as well. Here goes...




Starters

Rotation

In Blowouts


34
Jones
10
Goldwire




20
O'Connell


7
Stanley


28
Moore
17
White
4
Baker


25
DeLaurier
27
Hurt




28
Carey







- Chillin

ETA - Man, visualizing it like this, you can clearly see the hole in the lineup without Boogie, if AOC, Baker, and Stanley can't step into a consistent role. Not to say that Boogie definitively would have stepped in himself, but 4 is better than 3 and 2 of those 4 have struggled to date to step up even when sorely needed.

kAzE
05-28-2019, 03:33 PM
It’s a little confusing to me that many have Wendell Moore penciled in as a starter, but Joey baker glued to the bench. IIRC, wasn’t Joey ranked ahead of Wendell in the original 2019 class rankings? I believe he was around #15 prior to reclassifying, which puts him not far behind Matthew Hurt.

He also has an additional advantage having been here for a year, practicing against 3 2019 lottery picks on a daily basis.

I expect Joey will surprise a lot of people.

ChillinDuke
05-28-2019, 04:09 PM
Itís a little confusing to me that many have Wendell Moore penciled in as a starter, but Joey baker glued to the bench. IIRC, wasnít Joey ranked ahead of Wendell in the original 2019 class rankings? I believe he was around #15 prior to reclassifying, which puts him not far behind Matthew Hurt.

He also has an additional advantage having been here for a year, practicing against 3 2019 lottery picks on a daily basis.

I expect Joey will surprise a lot of people.

Yeah, most of us get that (I presume). But we have real college data points on Joey at this point. And they weren't particularly gleaming, despite our likely accepting anything north of palatable from a shooting perspective last year.

I certainly hope Joey will surprise everyone next year. But it's hard to look at original 2019 class rankings as a predictor after we've had actual 2019 minutes to watch Joey's skills in action at this level.

Wendell looks like the real deal to me at a position where we don't have particularly great depth and playmaking ability. Sames goes for SG. I suspect the wing spots will be up for grabs and Wendell just seems (probably to most of us) like the highest floor option at this stage. I concede that there is a not insignificant chance that Wendell ends up on the benchside of the equation in favor of two other wing starters - it's just hard to point to those two starters with any degree of confidence at this stage.

- Chillin

sagegrouse
05-28-2019, 04:13 PM
Dan Meagher*, David Henderson*, John Smith, Carmen Wallace, Greg Newton, Ricky Price, Taymon Domzalski, Shav Randolph*, Casey Sanders, Nick Horvath, Marty Pocius, Dave McClure, Andre Dawkins, Josh Hairston, Rasheed Sulaimon. Off the top of my head. (I expect there are others.)


* - Meagher, D Henderson, & Randolph didn't decline by a whole bunch, but they did decline

“There are very few uninjured Duke players playing on a highly ranked team one year whose [minutes] have declined the next. Who besides Paulus?)”

FWIW, Greg Paulus has the distinction of having his minutes decline every single year he played for Duke. From 1163 as a freshman to 1068 to 843 to 578. It’s the big drop in his senior year that I remember. No one else saw that big a decline.

Hey, good list of names and some good memories. I am listing those who were “playing on a highly ranked team” at their peak minutes. Year listed in the year before the decline.

Shav Randolph*, 03-04, 709 to 548. He missed four weeks of the season from mid-December to mid-January. Per game minutes were virtually the same.

Casey Sanders, 00-01, 373 to 242. The question here is how he got on the court in 2001 – it was the “It’s over” event when Boozer broke his foot.

Nick Horvath, 02-03, 405 to 218. Nick’s an outlier in every discussion, isn’t he? Wasn’t he a double major in physics and English?

Andre Dawkins, 10-11, 778 to 760. Not significant. He skipped a year and then played only 453 as a senior.

Josh Hairston, 12-13, 444 to 284. Never played that much – but I suppose Jabari took up some of his minutes in 2013.

Rasheed Sulaimon, 12-13, 1050 to 871. No, we don’t count the decline in 2015 when he got kicked off the team.

I suppose "highly ranked team" is debatable, but I didn't count 1995-1996, 1986-1987 (#17) or 2003-2004 (#14) as highly ranked

kAzE
05-28-2019, 04:15 PM
Yeah, most of us get that (I presume). But we have real college data points on Joey at this point. And they weren't particularly gleaming, despite our likely accepting anything north of palatable from a shooting perspective last year.

I certainly hope Joey will surprise everyone next year. But it's hard to look at original 2019 class rankings as a predictor after we've had actual 2019 minutes to watch Joey's skills in action at this level.

Wendell looks like the real deal to me at a position where we don't have particularly great depth and playmaking ability. Sames goes for SG. I suspect the wing spots will be up for grabs and Wendell just seems (probably to most of us) like the highest floor option at this stage. I concede that there is a not insignificant chance that Wendell ends up on the benchside of the equation in favor of two other wing starters - it's just hard to point to those two starters with any degree of confidence at this stage.

- Chillin

He played 18 minutes... I’m not sure how anyone can draw meaningful conclusions from that. But even so, I thought he looked pretty good. He looked like one of the better scorers on the team in the Canada games. He plays hard, and he’s pretty athletic. I’m not sure what you were expecting to see from a kid who was supposed to be in high school last year, especially being thrust into ACC games after sitting out most of the year.

Troublemaker
05-28-2019, 04:21 PM
IIRC, wasn’t Joey ranked ahead of Wendell in the original 2019 class rankings? I believe he was around #15 prior to reclassifying, which puts him not far behind Matthew Hurt.

Joey reclassified May 2, 2018. The April 22, 2018 internet archive of 247's composite rankings (their version of RSCI) for the class of 2019 (https://web.archive.org/web/20180422010706/https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/CompositeRecruitRankings?InstitutionGroup=highscho ol) had Carey as #2, Hurt as #4, Stanley as #14, Baker as #21, and Moore as #23.

So Baker and Moore were essentially tied. And if we're going to play that game, then Stanley should start over Baker since he was #14.

I don't think it makes sense to just disregard Joey's RSCI rank of #37 in the 2018 class (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home/2018-final). I think he was probably going to drop some in the 2019 class rankings anyway, and the people who do these rankings factored that in when ranking him in 2018.

The reason people like me are high on Wendell to start is because he started on every USA team he played on (u16, u17, Hoop Summit), he is projected as a first-round pick by ESPN / Draft Express and by The Athletic / Sam Vecenie, and Coach K thinks Wendell is OAD (although I suuppose that could just be a recruiting pitch) (https://www.charlotteobserver.com/latest-news/article219674915.html).

kAzE
05-28-2019, 04:24 PM
Joey reclassified May 2, 2018. The April 22, 2018 internet archive of 247's 20 composite rankings (their version of RSCI) for the class of 2019 (https://web.archive.org/web/20180422010706/https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/CompositeRecruitRankings?InstitutionGroup=highscho ol) had Carey as #2, Hurt as #4, Stanley as #14, Baker as #21, and Moore as #23.

So Baker and Moore were essentially tied. And if we're going to play that game, then Stanley should start over Baker since he was #14.

I don't think it makes sense to just disregard Joey's RSCI rank of #37 in the 2018 class (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home/2018-final). I think he was probably going to drop some in the 2019 class rankings anyway, and the people who do these rankings factored that in when ranking him in 2018.

The reason people like me are high on Wendell to start is because he started on every USA team he played on (u16, u17, Hoop Summit), he is projected as a first-round pick by ESPN / Draft Express and by The Athletic / Sam Vecenie, and Coach K thinks Wendell is OAD (although I suuppose that could just be a recruiting pitch) (https://www.charlotteobserver.com/latest-news/article219674915.html).

This has nothing to do with me being down on Wendell Moore. I think Wendell is a starter too. But there’s nothing that suggests to me that Wendell can’t be a SG, and start along someone like jack white or Joey baker playing SF.

ChillinDuke
05-28-2019, 04:25 PM
He played 18 minutes... Iím not sure how anyone can draw meaningful conclusions from that. But even so, I thought he looked pretty good. He looked like one of the better scorers on the team in the Canada games. He plays hard, and heís pretty athletic. Iím not sure what you were expecting to see from a kid who was supposed to be in high school last year, especially being thrust into ACC games after sitting out most of the year.

I think the simple fact that he played only 18 minutes in a season where we direly needed a floor spacer is exactly what I am drawing a meaningful conclusion from.

Trying to parse his play in those minutes or benchmark his rankings is missing the forest for the trees. IMO

- Chillin

Troublemaker
05-28-2019, 04:32 PM
This has nothing to do with me being down on Wendell Moore. I think Wendell is a starter too. But thereís nothing that suggests to me that Wendell canít be a SG, and start along someone like jack white or Joey baker playing SF.

Well, you were asking why the different treatment for Wendell and Joey when they were similarly ranked before Joey classified. I'm saying here are the list of things that differentiate them -- essentially, the opinions of USA coaches, draft experts, and Coach K himself perhaps.

kAzE
05-28-2019, 04:40 PM
I think the simple fact that he played only 18 minutes in a season where we direly needed a floor spacer is exactly what I am drawing a meaningful conclusion from.

Trying to parse his play in those minutes or benchmark his rankings is missing the forest for the trees. IMO

- Chillin

I think you're judging him unfairly for his lack of minutes last season. It's entirely possible that the plan was to redshirt last year, and various injuries resulted in him getting some minutes for depth. I think it's actually encouraging that the coaches were wiling to put him in there in the middle of conference play. There's not enough data to draw conclusions either way.

Again, he looked pretty good in Canada. Given a year plus a summer of Duke coaching, and added strength, I think he'll play double digit minutes in 2019-20, and may be a dark horse candidate to start. Personally, I think he's more promising than Alex O'Connell.

MChambers
05-28-2019, 04:51 PM
I think it's silly to predict minutes until we get those summer pick up game reports!

Kedsy
05-28-2019, 04:59 PM
Joey reclassified May 2, 2018. The April 22, 2018 internet archive of 247's composite rankings (their version of RSCI) for the class of 2019 (https://web.archive.org/web/20180422010706/https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Basketball/CompositeRecruitRankings?InstitutionGroup=highscho ol) had Carey as #2, Hurt as #4, Stanley as #14, Baker as #21, and Moore as #23.

So Baker and Moore were essentially tied. And if we're going to play that game, then Stanley should start over Baker since he was #14.

I don't think it makes sense to just disregard Joey's RSCI rank of #37 in the 2018 class (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home/2018-final). I think he was probably going to drop some in the 2019 class rankings anyway, and the people who do these rankings factored that in when ranking him in 2018.

The reason people like me are high on Wendell to start is because he started on every USA team he played on (u16, u17, Hoop Summit), he is projected as a first-round pick by ESPN / Draft Express and by The Athletic / Sam Vecenie, and Coach K thinks Wendell is OAD (although I suuppose that could just be a recruiting pitch) (https://www.charlotteobserver.com/latest-news/article219674915.html).

Yeah, the "where should Joey Baker be ranked" question is one of three issues that will make the 2020 perimeter rotation particularly difficult to predict. I discuss them in another thread (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?33892-Recruiting-ranking-experience-and-playing-time-at-Duke&p=1165947#post1165947).

ChillinDuke
05-28-2019, 05:31 PM
I think you're judging him unfairly for his lack of minutes last season. It's entirely possible that the plan was to redshirt last year, and various injuries resulted in him getting some minutes for depth. I think it's actually encouraging that the coaches were wiling to put him in there in the middle of conference play. There's not enough data to draw conclusions either way.

Again, he looked pretty good in Canada. Given a year plus a summer of Duke coaching, and added strength, I think he'll play double digit minutes in 2019-20, and may be a dark horse candidate to start. Personally, I think he's more promising than Alex O'Connell.

I find it hard to believe that a player who (perhaps all of he/family/coaches) deemed a redshirt to be in his best interests, then was inserted into the lineup for all of 18 minutes - more or less looking unimpactful at best and reasonably overmatched at worst, and at no point did anything that really turned an eyebrow, will only ~6 months later be a starter at Duke in the face of other reasonable options.

Not impossible at all. But hard to bet on at this stage. And what is a minutes discussion if not betting on who you think will play?

You and others are certainly free to bet on him. I just think that's unreasonable given the facts we have standing at today. And I'm entitled to that opinion. And I think that opinion is a plenty fair reason to pencil (not pen) Wendell Moore in as a starter and glue Joey to the bench.

You want to pencil in Joey and glue Wendell because Joey looked good in Canadian exhibition games? Because he was ranked highly 2 years ago? Because he practiced against 3 lottery picks and did what? You see how when viewed in this (admittedly biased) light the argument seems flat outside of blind faith and cheerleading?

Not arguing. Just "discussing".

- Chillin

ETA - But hey, I never thought we'd burn the redshirt to begin with, so Joey already has a history of surprising me.

lotusland
05-28-2019, 08:50 PM
Bakerís flawless recruit image went up in flames with his red-shirt. I mean how can you expect a guy who was designated as a redshirt at Duke this year but played 18- minutes instead, possibly be better than another kid his age who was playing against high schoolers 6 months ago?

Fish80
05-28-2019, 09:23 PM
Bakerís flawless recruit image went up in flames with his red-shirt. I mean how can you expect a guy who was designated as a redshirt at Duke this year but played 18- minutes instead, possibly be better than another kid his age who was playing against high schoolers 6 months ago?

What? This makes no sense. Joey is an all ACC candidate. You, Mr Lotus, arenít properly assimilating all the data. If you parse his 18 minutes into good minutes and bad minutes and then extrapolate the good, he is Golden!

sagegrouse
05-28-2019, 09:39 PM
Baker’s flawless recruit image went up in flames with his red-shirt. I mean how can you expect a guy who was designated as a redshirt at Duke this year but played 18- minutes instead, possibly be better than another kid his age who was playing against high schoolers 6 months ago?

Two aphorisms*:

When the press was teasing John Wooden in 1973 or so that Bill Walton was nowhere near as good as Lew Alcindor and would play forward while Alcindor played center, Wooden replied, "You may be right, but don't you be too sure of it."

"The most under-rated player on next year's basketball team is the guy on the bench." As opposed to the returning starters and the star recruits that figure in everyone's projections.

I wouldn't write off Joey Baker...

Kindly,
Sage
* I don't know what this means but it is on my "vocabulary improvement" list.

UrinalCake
05-28-2019, 09:49 PM
As a point of reference, here are the minutes from last year's team, based on sports-reference.com:


Barrett 35.3
Tre 34.2
Zion 30.0
Reddish 29.7
White 20.5
Bolden 19.0
Javin 16.3
O'Connell 14.0
Vrank 5.2
Robinson 3.4
Besser 3.0
Goldwire 8.6
Baker 4.5
Buckmire 3.3

As always, average minutes can be misleading because the bench guys are only averaged over games in which they actually played. Also Zion missed half of the FSU game and most of the first UNC-CHeat game, and Tre missed most of the Syracuse game. But I think most of us predicted 30+ minutes for the big four freshmen, with Tre playing close to the full 40 in competitive games.

Jack was playing 30-ish minutes for the first half of the season, but by the end was basically out of the rotation. Goldwire was the opposite, he took on a bigger role after the Louisville game. Minutes predictions are tough because things fluctuate throughout the season. Early on K will lean on his veterans, but then we'll play a bunch of scrub teams which puts the bigs at a disadvantage because it's easier to go small. Anyways, here are mine. They don't exactly add up to 200 minutes for the same reason as above, plus they're really just a rough swag:


Jones 36
O'Connell 25
Moore 30
Javin 20
Carey 29
Hurt 25
White 20
Goldwire 10
Stanley 7
Baker 8


By the time we get to the end of the season I think we'll see Hurt starting in place of Javin, with Stanley and Baker being out of the rotation and Goldwire only getting spot minutes whenever Tre goes out.

MarkD83
05-29-2019, 10:29 AM
C- Carey, DeLaurier
PF- Hurt, White
SF- Moore, Baker
SG- O'Connell, Stanley
PG- Jones, Goldwire

-Jason "Duke has no positions, I know, but you know what I mean" Evans

I have not participated in the minutes contests throughout the years but perhaps this year I will. The reason is that I now know to make predictions with my head rather than my heart.

So some factoids / observations:
Coach K only plays 6-7 players
Coach K will play those players that play good defense
Coach K will defer to experienced players that know their roles on the team
Coach K will have more wings and shooters on the court then traditional big men.

With these factoids in mind I have taken Jason's quick summary of the roster and highlighted the players who will get the most minutes (unless there are injuries). This is in order of minutes played

Jones
Carey
Hurt
Moore
White (toss up with DeLaurier in the starting line-up but getting lots of minutes subbing in for Hurt, Moore and Carey)
DeLaurier (toss up with White in the starting line-up but getting lots of minutes subbing in for Hurt, Moore and Carey)
Goldwire (gets the edge to start because of defense and knowing his role)

If O'Connell, Baker or Stanley can hit more than 40% of their 3s then they take the 7th spot.

No need to have the contest just declare me the winner and let's move on :)

jimsumner
05-29-2019, 11:21 AM
ďThere are very few uninjured Duke players playing on a highly ranked team one year whose [minutes] have declined the next. Who besides Paulus?)Ē

FWIW, Greg Paulus has the distinction of having his minutes decline every single year he played for Duke. From 1163 as a freshman to 1068 to 843 to 578. Itís the big drop in his senior year that I remember. No one else saw that big a decline.

Hey, good list of names and some good memories. I am listing those who were ďplaying on a highly ranked teamĒ at their peak minutes. Year listed in the year before the decline.

Shav Randolph*, 03-04, 709 to 548. He missed four weeks of the season from mid-December to mid-January. Per game minutes were virtually the same.

Casey Sanders, 00-01, 373 to 242. The question here is how he got on the court in 2001 Ė it was the ďItís overĒ event when Boozer broke his foot.

Nick Horvath, 02-03, 405 to 218. Nickís an outlier in every discussion, isnít he? Wasnít he a double major in physics and English?

Andre Dawkins, 10-11, 778 to 760. Not significant. He skipped a year and then played only 453 as a senior.

Josh Hairston, 12-13, 444 to 284. Never played that much Ė but I suppose Jabari took up some of his minutes in 2013.

Rasheed Sulaimon, 12-13, 1050 to 871. No, we donít count the decline in 2015 when he got kicked off the team.

I suppose "highly ranked team" is debatable, but I didn't count 1995-1996, 1986-1987 (#17) or 2003-2004 (#14) as highly ranked

Greg Newton, Ricky Price and Taymon Domzalski are all players who were starters early in their Duke careers and ended those careers as bench players. DNP-CD in final game.

superdave
05-29-2019, 11:22 AM
I would bet Alex plays a higher mpg rate in the 2019 calendar year than when the calendar flips to 2020. He's got experience and will show improvement, but Moore and Stanley will soak up some of those minutes as they get acclimated. Also, Goldwire could soak up some minutes in tough league games where the D needs a boost.

I sort of expect the same scenario with Hurt and Jack White, where Hurt's minutes grows as he gets reps under his belt.

These minutes discussions are often too linear. I think the rotation will be deep and wide through the holidays, then take shape with Hurt, Stanley and Moore seeing minutes grow come January.

sagegrouse
05-29-2019, 12:00 PM
Greg Newton, Ricky Price and Taymon Domzalski are all players who were starters early in their Duke careers and ended those careers as bench players. DNP-CD in final game.



Jim: Perhaps I should have done it diffeently, but I was looking for guys who lost minutes while playing on highly ranked Duke teams.

The three you call out were not listed because they were not on highly rated Duke teams at their peak. Their peak years were 1995-1996, when Duke, although making the NCAA tournament, was unranked. In 1997 Trajan returned after missing a year, Roshown McLeod showed up, etc. Similarly the guys on the 1982 team didn't get to play much after Dawkins & Co. arrived -- and that decline doesn't count -- the arriving players were a lot better.

Ricky Price also declined from 1997 to 1998 -- but he had a suspension in there and ended up on the bench. I saw him last year and told him I still remembered his buzzer-beater to beat Maryland in College Park -- he grinned broadly.

Greg Newton is an utter mystery to me to this day, but I hope he is doing well.

Dr. Taymon Domzalski graduated from Duke med, which he entered after a couple of years of pro ball, and is a practicing radiologist in Tacoma, Washington. He has certainly done very well.

Kedsy
05-29-2019, 12:20 PM
The three you call out were not listed because they were not on highly rated Duke teams at their peak. Their peak years were 1995-1996, when Duke, although making the NCAA tournament, was unranked. In 1997 Trajan returned after missing a year, Roshown McLeod showed up, etc. Similarly the guys on the 1982 team didn't get to play much after Dawkins & Co. arrived -- and that decline doesn't count -- the arriving players were a lot better.

The arriving players were a lot better? Isn't that the whole point? Obviously we haven't seen them play yet, but what if Wendell Moore and Cassius Stanley are a lot better than Jordan Goldwire, Jack White, and Alex O'Connell? What if Joey Baker (who, let's face it, we haven't seen enough of to draw legitimate conclusions) is a lot better? If so, those three veterans will have fewer minutes, won't they?

sagegrouse
05-29-2019, 12:36 PM
The arriving players were a lot better? Isn't that the whole point? Obviously we haven't seen them play yet, but what if Wendell Moore and Cassius Stanley are a lot better than Jordan Goldwire, Jack White, and Alex O'Connell? What if Joey Baker (who, let's face it, we haven't seen enough of to draw legitimate conclusions) is a lot better? If so, those three veterans will have fewer minutes, won't they?

I dunno, Kedsy. My hypothesis was that players on really good Duke teams don't lose playing time the following year. Specifically, last year's team was ranked #1 in the final AP poll. I would expect the players on that team to play at least as many minutes next year as this year -- specifically, White (715), DeLaurier (618), AOC (505), and Goldwire (301). Anyway, that's my riff, which leads to a prediction of more players getting minutes in 2019-2020.

Or, maybe I should say, that's the windmill I am tilting at.

Sage Grouse

Kedsy
05-29-2019, 02:10 PM
I dunno, Kedsy. My hypothesis was that players on really good Duke teams don't lose playing time the following year. Specifically, last year's team was ranked #1 in the final AP poll. I would expect the players on that team to play at least as many minutes next year as this year -- specifically, White (715), DeLaurier (618), AOC (505), and Goldwire (301). Anyway, that's my riff, which leads to a prediction of more players getting minutes in 2019-2020.

Or, maybe I should say, that's the windmill I am tilting at.

Sage Grouse

Your hypothesis will likely be put to the test. If there were any year that more players would get minutes it would be next year. As I mentioned in another thread, our 5th through 10th guys, all of whom play pretty close to the same position, are all somewhat equal. So either (a) Coach K will pick three and the other three will be consigned to mop-up duty; or (b) he'll spread the minutes around all six. Or possibly he'll spend a decent proportion of the season mixing and matching to determine which three are the right ones and after he figures it out move to (a).

CDu
05-29-2019, 05:03 PM
I dunno, Kedsy. My hypothesis was that players on really good Duke teams don't lose playing time the following year. Specifically, last year's team was ranked #1 in the final AP poll. I would expect the players on that team to play at least as many minutes next year as this year -- specifically, White (715), DeLaurier (618), AOC (505), and Goldwire (301). Anyway, that's my riff, which leads to a prediction of more players getting minutes in 2019-2020.

Or, maybe I should say, that's the windmill I am tilting at.

Sage Grouse

I think one probably should look at last year’s team - one of the least deep and THE least experienced ever at Duke under Coach K - as an outlier. Especially since we lost a key starter for essentially 13 games last year (5 for Jones, 6 for Williamson, 2 for Reddish). That inflated the bench guys’ minutes by about 400 minutes total.

So, for example, I might suggest that Goldwire could see a Casey Sanders like drop in minutes. And with Stanley and Moore coming in, I could see a scenario in which both outplay O’Connell - a guy who has been given several chances but has not found a way to stick in the rotation with any consistency - and knock his minutes down too.

sagegrouse
05-29-2019, 05:22 PM
I think one probably should look at last yearís team - one of the least deep and THE least experienced ever at Duke under Coach K - as an outlier. Especially since we lost a key starter for essentially 13 games last year (5 for Jones, 6 for Williamson, 2 for Reddish). That inflated the bench guysí minutes by about 400 minutes total.

So, for example, I might suggest that Goldwire could see a Casey Sanders like drop in minutes. And with Stanley and Moore coming in, I could see a scenario in which both outplay OíConnell - a guy who has been given several chances but has not found a way to stick in the rotation with any consistency - and knock his minutes down too.

Yeah, we'll see about O'Connell. Jordan Goldwire? I get this feeling that K really, really trusts him -- and that he will carve out a role.

sagegrouse
05-29-2019, 09:40 PM
Lucy Van Pelt (Coach K) is teeing it up the ball really nicely this year -- eleven-man rotation?!?

Lots of good stuff from K at his presser today at the beginning of K Academy (https://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke-head-coach-mike-krzyzewski-talks-zion-tre-jones-return-and-more/18418780/). Here's one for the minutes discussion, near the end. "We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

kAzE
05-29-2019, 11:32 PM
I find it hard to believe that a player who (perhaps all of he/family/coaches) deemed a redshirt to be in his best interests, then was inserted into the lineup for all of 18 minutes - more or less looking unimpactful at best and reasonably overmatched at worst, and at no point did anything that really turned an eyebrow, will only ~6 months later be a starter at Duke in the face of other reasonable options.

Not impossible at all. But hard to bet on at this stage. And what is a minutes discussion if not betting on who you think will play?

You and others are certainly free to bet on him. I just think that's unreasonable given the facts we have standing at today. And I'm entitled to that opinion. And I think that opinion is a plenty fair reason to pencil (not pen) Wendell Moore in as a starter and glue Joey to the bench.

You want to pencil in Joey and glue Wendell because Joey looked good in Canadian exhibition games? Because he was ranked highly 2 years ago? Because he practiced against 3 lottery picks and did what? You see how when viewed in this (admittedly biased) light the argument seems flat outside of blind faith and cheerleading?

Not arguing. Just "discussing".

- Chillin

ETA - But hey, I never thought we'd burn the redshirt to begin with, so Joey already has a history of surprising me.

Well, that's not what I said (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1165888#post1165888) at all. I think Wendell Moore is a likely starter, and Joey could possibly start. I think the most likely outcome is that Alex O'Connell begins the year as the starter. I also said in a later post that Joey could be a "darkhorse candidate to start." In no way is that a declaration that I think he's a lock as a starter, which you seem to think I posted somewhere. My comparison was just a posing a question as why people are so down on Joey when he was ranked similarly to Wendell 2 years ago.

But like others have said, it's kind of ridiculous that you would criticize my optimism for Joey Baker based on his play against Canadian college players, when all you have to go on for someone like Wendell Moore is youtube highlights of him playing against high schoolers. The point is, we don't know very much about either guy. You're certainly entitled to your opinion. I'm just more optimistic about Joey than you. I happen to think he's a really skilled scorer/shooter with good athleticism and pretty good size. He was 18 years old last year (he's actually 5 months younger than Matthew Hurt, who is already 19. Joey turns 19 in September), and we have fantastic coaches. He'll be a really good player for Duke at some point in his career, hopefully sooner rather than later.

Kedsy
05-29-2019, 11:49 PM
Lucy Van Pelt (Coach K) is teeing it up the ball really nicely this year -- eleven-man rotation?!?

Lots of good stuff from K at his presser today at the beginning of K Academy (https://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke-head-coach-mike-krzyzewski-talks-zion-tre-jones-return-and-more/18418780/). Here's one for the minutes discussion, near the end. "We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

Acymetric
05-30-2019, 05:48 AM
Lucy Van Pelt (Coach K) is teeing it up the ball really nicely this year -- eleven-man rotation?!?

Lots of good stuff from K at his presser today at the beginning of K Academy (https://www.wralsportsfan.com/duke-head-coach-mike-krzyzewski-talks-zion-tre-jones-return-and-more/18418780/). Here's one for the minutes discussion, near the end. "We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."


Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

"We have eleven players, and they all need to play. So how they fit in we don't know yet. But I expect all eleven to be able to play and contribute."

Re-quoted with emphasis on the anchor line. He's not saying he's going to play 11 guys. He's saying he expects everyone to be able to play, which just means he expects the end of the bench to give 100% (mostly in practice, and occasionally in games during spot minutes).

Why wouldn't he include Justin Robinson? He's on the team, right?

sagegrouse
05-30-2019, 06:35 AM
Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

He did mention "Justin Robinson, who is in graduate school," although not in the context of "the eleven." He is clearly challenging his players at the beginning of summer workouts.

NSDukeFan
05-30-2019, 10:42 AM
Eleven? So he's including Justin Robinson?

Maybe Michael Savarino?

Wahoo2000
05-30-2019, 11:05 AM
Couple of thoughts on what I've read in this thread so far -

1- re: Joey Baker
I think those assuming Baker is limited due to what transpired last season (decision to redshirt, and having little/no impact when the redshirt was pulled) might be missing something. Baker's decision to reclass, combined with the 3-lottery pick wings choosing Duke made redshirting something of a no-brainer. Baker wasn't going to get any kind of significant PT with those guys (Zion/RJ/Cam) clearly ahead of him, and a year to acclimate to college/get stronger/learn the system can have MASSIVE benefits. When De'Andre Hunter was redshirted his true freshman season I'd bet people doubted he'd ever become a lottery pick. I think the decision to redshirt a highly ranked player has little correlation to that player being a potential "bust" when there are certain factors involved (reclass, available PT due to stars ahead of him, possible injury, etc). Additionally, the fact that Baker couldn't make an impact in his limited PT this season should also probably be largely ignored. Guys who are redshirting are often focusing on things very different from the active roster. They're usually practicing on the "scout team" and getting little run with the regular rotation players to develop confidence/chemistry/etc. Additionally, they're usually in a pretty aggressive strength and conditioning program as well as potentially working on mechanics and other issues that can somewhat "throw off" their games in the short term in the interest of long term gains. Your staff was obviously looking for a spark last year when Baker's shirt was pulled and may have been hoping to "hit a one outer" so to speak in that Baker could come in, integrate with the regular rotation guys quickly, and become the sniper they needed. It didn't work, and they abandoned the plan pretty quickly. I don't think that abandonment should be read into as the staff suddenly losing faith that Baker was a good player. More like they took a long shot, it missed, and so they let him get back to the track he was on to get ready for 19-20. Not saying any of this as if Baker will "break out" this season as Hunter did after his redshirt year (Jay Huff also redshirted with Hunter and he's still working his way into being a core rotation player 2 years later), but he's certainly a candidate to contribute.

2- Like it or not, sometimes coaches have "favorites". Guys that they just love something about from a mentality standpoint that makes up for a lot in the skill/ability department. I'm far from certain on this one, but I really think Goldwire seems like one of those guys for Coach K. If Goldwire can spend the summer getting his 3pt shot even HALFWAY respectable (over 30% maybe?), I think he's a candidate to get a lot more minutes than some may think. I get that Moore and Stanley coming in are the shiny new toys, but remember that there's a massive difference between top 5 recruits and top 25ish recruits. The former are VERY likely impact guys from day one, the latter are often freshmen who look like freshmen - and often easily displaced (or at least competed with) by much lower ranked veterans. I do see one potential barrier to Goldwire getting a lot of run in that there will be guys (Trae and DeLaurier) getting a TON of minutes who are also "less than excellent" shooters and K might prefer to surround those guys with more capable shooters. Still, I don't know. There's something about the idea of the defense Duke could play with Trae/Goldwire/DeLaurier out there together that could lead to a LOT of transition/easy scoring opportunities. While that squad might be limited in the half court, they certainly should be good at generating easy buckets off turnovers. Ultimately, I think Goldwire will get consistent time.

3 - So with Jones/Delaurier/Carey CERTAIN to get solid rotation play, that leaves 4.5 spots for the rest of the team to battle over (given K's pretty consistent history over the past 4-5 seasons). I'd guess the leading candidates to get that time would be (ranked in order of my guesses as to the likelihood that they'll make the core rotation):
1) White
2) Goldwire
3) Hurt
4) O'Connell
5) Baker
6) Stanley*
7) Moore*

*Only putting Stanley and Moore at 6&7 as I think only ONE of them will end up in the core rotation. If I could combine them into one option called "freshman wing", they'd probably be #2 or #3 on this list. ONE of those guys will play I think - If the team needs more shooting/scoring it's probably Stanley. If it's athleticism/defense, it's Moore.

Troublemaker
05-30-2019, 12:06 PM
3 - So with Jones/Delaurier/Carey CERTAIN to get solid rotation play, that leaves 4.5 spots for the rest of the team to battle over (given K's pretty consistent history over the past 4-5 seasons). I'd guess the leading candidates to get that time would be (ranked in order of my guesses as to the likelihood that they'll make the core rotation):
1) White
2) Goldwire
3) Hurt
4) O'Connell
5) Baker
6) Stanley*
7) Moore*

*Only putting Stanley and Moore at 6&7 as I think only ONE of them will end up in the core rotation. If I could combine them into one option called "freshman wing", they'd probably be #2 or #3 on this list. ONE of those guys will play I think - If the team needs more shooting/scoring it's probably Stanley. If it's athleticism/defense, it's Moore.

Yeah, Duke put too many miles on the jet going to Minnesota to recruit Hurt for me to think that he has less of a chance at playing time than JGold, haha. Hurt will start. And the staff is likewise very big on Moore, who is probably the better shooter/scorer than Stanley, unlike what you're saying there. Moore isn't just some sort of defensive specialist or athletic specialist. And if anything, it's Stanley that is the athletic freak.

As always, appreciate the thoughts from a guest, but your analysis in this particular case doesn't seem realistic. As always, remind me of this post if you turn out to be right / I turn out to be wrong.

Wahoo2000
05-30-2019, 12:19 PM
Yeah, Duke put too many miles on the jet going to Minnesota to recruit Hurt for me to think that he has less of a chance at playing time than JGold, haha. Hurt will start. And the staff is likewise very big on Moore, who is probably the better shooter/scorer than Stanley, unlike what you're saying there. Moore isn't just some sort of defensive specialist or athletic specialist. And if anything, it's Stanley that is the athletic freak.

As always, appreciate the thoughts from a guest, but your analysis in this particular case doesn't seem realistic. As always, remind me of this post if you turn out to be right / I turn out to be wrong.

Yeah - you're much more in-tune and I'm sure have read much more on these guys than I have. My thoughts were based solely at looking at the incoming freshmen's heights/weights and scouting reports and led to these thoughts -
Hurt being so slight COULD prevent him from from being in the core rotation, though as the #3 on the list I still see it as a near certainty and would rate his chance to start above goldwire for sure. I just have goldwire that high because of most of my points earlier in that same post. The Stanley/Moore stuff was based purely on their scouting reports on 247 which to be fair DID say Stanley was a great athlete. I think I just assumed (prob unfairly) that since Moore seemed a little bigger/stronger/more developed physically he'd be a more ready and able defender. (Also those scouting reports seemed to portray Moore as more of a project offensively - though that sounds wrong from your analysis)

Thanks for the thoughts/education!

UrinalCake
05-30-2019, 12:38 PM
Life, death, taxes, and Coach K proclaiming over the summer that heís going to use his bench more....

throatybeard
05-31-2019, 01:11 PM
Looking back, this seems to be the latest this thread has ever started, likely due to Javin and Marques doing their due diligence in working out for NBA teams.

Ah. Small blessings.

MChambers
05-31-2019, 01:25 PM
Ah. Small blessings.

This thread serves the admirable purpose of consolidating all (well, most) 2019-20 playing time discussions in one place.

NSDukeFan
05-31-2019, 05:08 PM
This thread serves the admirable purpose of consolidating all (well, most) 2019-20 playing time discussions in one place.

Well, some consolidation, if itís any consolation?

Fish80
05-31-2019, 09:43 PM
What seems to be lost on this group is that Coach K is it going 11 deep this year. We need to factor that into the minutes analysis.

MChambers
06-01-2019, 06:11 AM
What seems to be lost on this group is that Coach K is it going 11 deep this year. We need to factor that into the minutes analysis.

That makes it easy. Putting aside injuries, each player gets 18.18 minutes per game (200/11).

bullettoothtony
06-01-2019, 08:17 AM
Life, death, taxes, and Coach K proclaiming over the summer that heís going to use his bench more...


Amen.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

wsb3
06-01-2019, 08:24 AM
Life, death, taxes, and Coach K proclaiming over the summer that heís going to use his bench more...

Thanks for the chuckle. I tried to spork you but alas I must spread comments around..

devildeac
06-09-2019, 09:38 PM
Wasn't sure where to post this but didn't want to start a new thread:

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/duke/article231254178.html

First I'd heard of this:eek:.

"Dukeís most experienced post player is recovering from elbow surgery.

Javin DeLaurier, a 6-foot-10 senior forward, had the surgery on Wednesday and is recovering well.

DeLaurier posted the news of the surgery on his personal Snapchat account Wednesday night and it was confirmed by Duke officials on Thursday, who described it as a ďclean-up.Ē

devildeac
06-09-2019, 09:41 PM
Amusing stuff about Michael Savarino:

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article231247823.html

"We expect him to be a heck of a walk-on for us,Ē Krzyzewski said before cracking a joke: ďAnd I donít expect any problems from the mother. And I better not have any problems from the grandmother. Thatís the one Iím worried about the most.Ē

:rolleyes:

Devilwin
06-10-2019, 05:57 AM
My guess on the starters..
Carey
Moore
Hurt
Jones
Stanley:cool:

flyingdutchdevil
06-10-2019, 07:42 AM
Amusing stuff about Michael Savarino:

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article231247823.html

"We expect him to be a heck of a walk-on for us,Ē Krzyzewski said before cracking a joke: ďAnd I donít expect any problems from the mother. And I better not have any problems from the grandmother. Thatís the one Iím worried about the most.Ē

:rolleyes:

Does that mean he expects Savarino to be a straight A student?

ice-9
06-10-2019, 08:17 AM
I think many are undervaluing what a year of practice and learning our defensive schemes will do for a sophomore vs freshman. Of course if the talent disparity is large, that experience may not compensate, but where talent is comparable then I believe that experience will be meaningful.

That's my argument for Baker starting.

I can also see Moore occupying a Maggette role, which is a sixth starter who will close many games. My impression is he is multi-positional, whereas Baker is more suited for specific roles. So from a team perspective it might be optimal for Moore to come off the bench and replace the weak link among starters depending on matchup.

This is all pure speculation of course. I don't know much at all about the incoming freshmen.

devildeac
06-10-2019, 08:44 AM
Does that mean he expects Savarino to be a straight A student?

It would be a Wonderful World then:

"...Now, I don't claim to be an A student
But I'm trying to be
For maybe by being an A student, baby
I can win your love for me.'''

accfanfrom1970
06-10-2019, 11:28 AM
It would be a Wonderful World then:

"...Now, I don't claim to be an A student
But I'm trying to be
For maybe by being an A student, baby
I can win your love for me.'''

Harrison Ford and Kelly McGillis in the barn, in Witness. Dating myself.

Kedsy
06-10-2019, 11:44 AM
Harrison Ford and Kelly McGillis in the barn, in Witness. Dating myself.

If you date yourself, that means you only need one movie ticket, right?

Billy Dat
06-10-2019, 11:55 AM
Harrison Ford and Kelly McGillis in the barn, in Witness. Dating myself.

My primary cinematic association with that song is a little less romantic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nGSvkJjc9c

UrinalCake
06-10-2019, 12:16 PM
I think many are undervaluing what a year of practice and learning our defensive schemes will do for a sophomore vs freshman. Of course if the talent disparity is large, that experience may not compensate, but where talent is comparable then I believe that experience will be meaningful.

That's my argument for Baker starting.

By the same reasoning, Alex should be starting over either Baker or Stanley. He has the most experience and has played meaningful minutes in real games. Agree that this yearís team as a whole will benefit from some experienced players which we have all grown accustomed to not having.

kAzE
06-10-2019, 12:30 PM
By the same reasoning, Alex should be starting over either Baker or Stanley. He has the most experience and has played meaningful minutes in real games. Agree that this yearís team as a whole will benefit from some experienced players which we have all grown accustomed to not having.

I think the biggest gap in differences of opinion regarding Joey Baker is his level of talent.

In my opinion, Joey is significantly more talented than Alex O'Connell. Both guys are quite athletic, but I believe Joey is much bigger, and much more skilled.

Alex is a very good spot of up shooter, but I think Joey is capable of creating his own shot at this level, which Alex has not demonstrated through his first two years. Both of them were not good on defense last season, though not for lack of effort. Defense is likely what will dictate playing time for both of those guys.

ice-9
06-11-2019, 06:48 AM
By the same reasoning, Alex should be starting over either Baker or Stanley. He has the most experience and has played meaningful minutes in real games. Agree that this yearís team as a whole will benefit from some experienced players which we have all grown accustomed to not having.

Kaze pointed it out - my statement was if the talent is comparable then experience matters. IMO Alex is not as talented but that's just a guess not an observation.

JNort
06-11-2019, 07:03 AM
I think the biggest gap in differences of opinion regarding Joey Baker is his level of talent.

In my opinion, Joey is significantly more talented than Alex O'Connell. Both guys are quite athletic, but I believe Joey is much bigger, and much more skilled.

Alex is a very good spot of up shooter, but I think Joey is capable of creating his own shot at this level, which Alex has not demonstrated through his first two years. Both of them were not good on defense last season, though not for lack of effort. Defense is likely what will dictate playing time for both of those guys.
Maybe there are some stats on it but from what I remember AOC is bar far the best offensive player returning. Good spot up shooter and can create his own shot. Imo he was criminally under used last year but we all have biasis that don't always turn out to be true. If Alex is even passable on defense he should be one of our top 2 options on offense unless someone surprises anyway.

Acymetric
06-11-2019, 07:40 AM
I think the biggest gap in differences of opinion regarding Joey Baker is his level of talent.

In my opinion, Joey is significantly more talented than Alex O'Connell. Both guys are quite athletic, but I believe Joey is much bigger, and much more skilled.

Alex is a very good spot of up shooter, but I think Joey is capable of creating his own shot at this level, which Alex has not demonstrated through his first two years. Both of them were not good on defense last season, though not for lack of effort. Defense is likely what will dictate playing time for both of those guys.

That bolded part made me do a double-take, so I had to go look up their info on their roster. Baker is 6'7, 200??? I swear when he played last season he looked every bit of 6'0, 180. So yes, he definitely has a size advantage over Alex both height and weight wise.

Kedsy
06-11-2019, 10:26 AM
Maybe there are some stats on it but from what I remember AOC is bar far the best offensive player returning. Good spot up shooter and can create his own shot. Imo he was criminally under used last year but we all have biasis that don't always turn out to be true. If Alex is even passable on defense he should be one of our top 2 options on offense unless someone surprises anyway.

Here are our returning players, with various advanced offensive stats. Alex has the best eFG% among players who played 60+ minutes and attempted more than one three-pointer, but by every other metric he did not have the best offensive performance among our returning players. Yeah, Javin's stats are inflated by his low usage (though Alex's usage wasn't particularly high, either), but looking at these stats there's no way I would say Alex is "b[y] far the best offensive player returning." Frankly, he was kind of mediocre on offense last season (and for what it's worth his advanced defensive stats are the worst of the bunch (not counting Joey Baker, who only played 18 minutes so his stats don't really tell us anything)).



Player min oRating usage eFG% PER OWS/40 OBPM
Javin DeLaurier 618 124.1 10.1 74.7% 18.5 0.071 3.5
Justin Robinson 58 121.4 13.2 76.9% 17.2 0.069 3.8
Tre Jones 1230 114.4 15.1 45.6% 15.4 0.071 3.6
Jack White 716 111.9 10.8 46.2% 12.5 0.045 2.4
Alex O'Connell 505 109.7 15.1 56.9% 12.6 0.055 3.0
Jordan Goldwire 301 80.8 9.1 30.7% 5.0 -0.013 -0.7
Joey Baker 18 69.1 15.5 37.5% -0.6 0.000 -5.6

NSDukeFan
06-11-2019, 11:19 AM
Here are our returning players, with various advanced offensive stats. Alex has the best eFG% among players who played 60+ minutes and attempted more than one three-pointer, but by every other metric he did not have the best offensive performance among our returning players. Yeah, Javin's stats are inflated by his low usage (though Alex's usage wasn't particularly high, either), but looking at these stats there's no way I would say Alex is "b[y] far the best offensive player returning." Frankly, he was kind of mediocre on offense last season (and for what it's worth his advanced defensive stats are the worst of the bunch (not counting Joey Baker, who only played 18 minutes so his stats don't really tell us anything)).



Player min oRating usage eFG% PER OWS/40 OBPM
Javin DeLaurier 618 124.1 10.1 74.7% 18.5 0.071 3.5
Justin Robinson 58 121.4 13.2 76.9% 17.2 0.069 3.8
Tre Jones 1230 114.4 15.1 45.6% 15.4 0.071 3.6
Jack White 716 111.9 10.8 46.2% 12.5 0.045 2.4
Alex O'Connell 505 109.7 15.1 56.9% 12.6 0.055 3.0
Jordan Goldwire 301 80.8 9.1 30.7% 5.0 -0.013 -0.7
Joey Baker 18 69.1 15.5 37.5% -0.6 0.000 -5.6


So you think Justin Robinson starts? 😀

kAzE
06-11-2019, 11:36 AM
That bolded part made me do a double-take, so I had to go look up their info on their roster. Baker is 6'7, 200??? I swear when he played last season he looked every bit of 6'0, 180. So yes, he definitely has a size advantage over Alex both height and weight wise.

Per Jim Sumnerís report on Joey, heís also gotten stronger, so I would add that to the list of advantages he has on AOC. Unfortunately, adding muscle has been a problem for Alex. A beefier Joey Baker could be an interesting piece on next yearís roster.

SkyBrickey
06-13-2019, 02:20 PM
I think Jones and Carey are the only locks as starters. And I tend to favor the older guys for minutes, especially early in the season. For us to be a great team by March, we will probably need Hurt starting and Moore and/or Baker playing at a high level. Guys like Jack and AOC know the system well and are presumably getting better in the off-season. I expect theyíll be battling hard against the new guys from day one in practice with an attitude of, If you want my starting position, youíre going to have to beat me for it.

superdave
06-13-2019, 04:11 PM
I think Jones and Carey are the only locks as starters. And I tend to favor the older guys for minutes, especially early in the season. For us to be a great team by March, we will probably need Hurt starting and Moore and/or Baker playing at a high level. Guys like Jack and AOC know the system well and are presumably getting better in the off-season. I expect theyíll be battling hard against the new guys from day one in practice with an attitude of, If you want my starting position, youíre going to have to beat me for it.

Some upper classmen take leaps (think Nolan from soph to junior seasons) and some freshmen dont really have the game slow down for them enough to earn big minutes. Who are the candidates for that?

Could Alex or Joey take a big jump? I'd bet on Alex because he's played a lot of minutes over two years.

What about freshmen who struggle with the speed and physicality of college? Could Hurt fall into that category given his frame? Those are two things I'll pay attention to early on.

jimsumner
06-13-2019, 07:05 PM
Harrison Ford and Kelly McGillis in the barn, in Witness. Dating myself.

Seriously? I'm old enough to remember when Sam Cooke's original version was new.

Heaven's Guardian
06-14-2019, 06:19 PM
I think a lot of this depends on what kind of system Duke wants to play next year. If it's a more structured offense, I think Alex starts. He played with more confidence as a freshman, and last year it looked to me as if he wasn't sure what he was supposed to be doing on offense. There were no other threats to come off screens, and the offense was mostly about giving it to Zion or RJ in isolation. As a freshman, he could come in and run the same actions as Gary, and there were more set plays. I think there's a pretty good chance of that this year because our roster doesn't really have positionless players other than maybe Wendell, so I can see a more comfortable Alex playing well.

Jack and Jordan both force their way into minutes if they shoot well, Wendell probably starts, and Joey can get some minutes if he knocks down shots. He's much less athletic than Alex from what I saw last year, with more bulk but less length. I think Alex has a much higher ceiling in addition to more experience, so I think Alex has to struggle for Joey to get a major role. We have 10 players who could be in the rotation, but about half of them are still question marks. Obviously I'd love them all to make it a difficult decision, but there will probably be at least two players who don't reach their best-case scenarios this year and will not be in the rotation by the end of the season.

Kedsy
06-14-2019, 09:24 PM
Joey can get some minutes if he knocks down shots. He's much less athletic than Alex from what I saw last year, with more bulk but less length.

Joey Baker was measured with a 6'9" wingspan when he was 16 years old. There's almost no doubt he has more "length" than Alex O'Connell. He may be less athletic than Alex, but I don't think we saw enough of him to tell, either way.

Heaven's Guardian
06-15-2019, 10:00 AM
Joey Baker was measured with a 6'9" wingspan when he was 16 years old. There's almost no doubt he has more "length" than Alex O'Connell. He may be less athletic than Alex, but I don't think we saw enough of him to tell, either way.

Do you have Alex's measurements? I can't find them, but I would have guessed his wingspan to be around the same, with another 1 1/2-2 inches of height. I think he's legitimately 6'6, unlike the "basketball" measurements most players have (Joey measured at 6'4 1/2 without shoes, if I recall correctly).

Kedsy
06-15-2019, 03:22 PM
Do you have Alex's measurements? I can't find them, but I would have guessed his wingspan to be around the same, with another 1 1/2-2 inches of height. I think he's legitimately 6'6, unlike the "basketball" measurements most players have (Joey measured at 6'4 1/2 without shoes, if I recall correctly).

I have never been able to find Alexís wingspan on line. But Iím pretty sure heís shorter than Joey. Alex is listed at 6í6 on Dukeís website and Joey is listed at 6í7. Joey was measured at a camp (canít remember which one) as 6í8, so Iíd be very surprised if he was really as short as 6í4.5, even without shoes. Iím also not sure why you think Alexís listed height is legit but not Joeyís.