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SoCalDukeFan
05-17-2019, 10:20 PM
I don't my own mock draft or anything but thinking back

1. Carlos Boozer to the 2nd round was ridiculous. I thought he would be a solid NBA player.

2. I also liked Gilbert Arenas, of course based on watching him play with basketballs not guns.

3. Thought Trajan Langdon went way too high.

4. Could not figure why the 76ers would trade up to take Markelle Fultz when they could have sat at 3 and taken Jayson Tatum.


SoCal

Acymetric
05-17-2019, 11:08 PM
In no particular order.

Well, actually more or less in reverse chronological order

1. Cody Zeller (4th pick, 2013): Massively overvalued. I was so mad at that pick by the Hornets. Obviously a very good college player. Terrible, terrible pick.

2. Frank Kaminsky (9th pick, 2015): Again, overvalued. Charlotte is obsessed with tall white guys who excelled in college but don't have NBA game. I don't know why.

3. Jimmer Fredette (10th pick, 2010): Also massively overvalued. I thought he was 2nd round talent at best, he may not even have been that.

4. Lance Thomas (undrafted, 2010): It may have worked out better for him to find the right landing spot, but he was easily 2nd round talent IMO. His senior season convinced me he would stick in the NBA.

5. Tyler Hansbrough (13th pick, 2009): Everyone who thought he was going to have a good NBA career raise your hand so we know who to un-spork. The mods can decide if bans should be handed out.

6. Adam Morrison (3rd pick, 2006): Unsurprisingly his game did not translate to the pros. Also unsurprisingly, the fighting Jordans drafted him (THIRD!?!?!?)


I agree with your 1, 3, and 4 as well (I didn't have a strong enough opinion on Arenas to claim that one). I was not a big fan of the Fultz or Simmons picks myself. I think Langdon would have had a much better career in today's NBA though (probably still not enough to justify where he went though).

JNort
05-17-2019, 11:12 PM
I haven't gotten to into the draft until the past few years but:

- Anthony Bennet? Never understood his appeal. He was too slow to play the 3 and to small and weak to play the 4. His skill level never seemed there either.

-3 in one draft recently. I said at worst Josh Hart would be a good 3 and D guy, OG Anunoby could be an elite defender one day and startable from the get go, and Frank Jackson who I still think is really good but seems to have an injury problem early

- Usually it's too early to tell but I think I nailed it in the last draft. Mitchell Robinson is a stud for the modern NBA.

subzero02
05-17-2019, 11:35 PM
I overvalued McCants, Okafor, Dunleavy and Felton and undervalued Steve Blake. It was obvious that Boozer had been undervalued by GMs a few games if not minutes into summer league play. I always thought he should've been a first rounder. I thought Zach Randolph should have been drafted higher as well. He and Brand had some of the best post moves that I've seen in the college game. if Z-bo got the ball up on the glass, it was basically a done deal.

Wahoo2000
05-18-2019, 12:40 AM
Awful for a UVA fan to admit, but I WAAAAAY undervalued Brogdon. I thought early-mid second round would be a stretch for a guy who was a TERRIFIC defender in college, but wasn't an elite shooter or athlete and really seemed to lack explosion that would cost him when trying to match up with NBA guards and wings.

Then he goes out, wins RoY, and only improves in successive seasons, even becoming the oh-so-rare 50/40/90 guy this year (check out the other guys on that list, I think they're ALL HoFers). Brogdon seems to be tracking towards fringe All-Star status, and I honestly thought he'd struggle heavily to stick in the league at all. Now he's probably the 3rd/4th best player on a team that's tracking towards the NBA finals.

9394

rocketeli
05-18-2019, 08:18 AM
In no particular order.

Well, actually more or less in reverse chronological order

1. Cody Zeller (4th pick, 2013): Massively overvalued. I was so mad at that pick by the Hornets. Obviously a very good college player. Terrible, terrible pick.

2. Frank Kaminsky (9th pick, 2015): Again, overvalued. Charlotte is obsessed with tall white guys who excelled in college but don't have NBA game. I don't know why.

3. Jimmer Fredette (10th pick, 2010): Also massively overvalued. I thought he was 2nd round talent at best, he may not even have been that.

4. Lance Thomas (undrafted, 2010): It may have worked out better for him to find the right landing spot, but he was easily 2nd round talent IMO. His senior season convinced me he would stick in the NBA.

5. Tyler Hansbrough (13th pick, 2009): Everyone who thought he was going to have a good NBA career raise your hand so we know who to un-spork. The mods can decide if bans should be handed out.

6. Adam Morrison (3rd pick, 2006): Unsurprisingly his game did not translate to the pros. Also unsurprisingly, the fighting Jordans drafted him (THIRD!?!?!?)


I agree with your 1, 3, and 4 as well (I didn't have a strong enough opinion on Arenas to claim that one). I was not a big fan of the Fultz or Simmons picks myself. I think Langdon would have had a much better career in today's NBA though (probably still not enough to justify where he went though).

The tendency of the internet to turn everything into a simplistic them vs us "racism" narrative is almost never helpful, so I hestitate to say this...but can't help but notice that sometimes NBA teams (and the basketball world in general) get a little overexcited by good caucasian players. I don't think it's usually consciously "racist" but many psychological studies show that people do tend to be more interested in people that look like them...

CameronBornAndBred
05-18-2019, 08:42 AM
2. Frank Kaminsky (9th pick, 2015): Again, overvalued. Charlotte is obsessed with tall white guys who excelled in college but don't have NBA game. I don't know why.



The tendency of the internet to turn everything into a simplistic them vs us "racism" narrative is almost never helpful, so I hestitate to say this...but can't help but notice that sometimes NBA teams (and the basketball world in general) get a little overexcited by good caucasian players. I don't think it's usually consciously "racist" but many psychological studies show that people do tend to be more interested in people that look like them...

Well, with Jordan owning the Hornets, and the GM (from 2011 to 2018) being an Asian (Burmese), I don't think that applies too well.

rocketeli
05-18-2019, 03:59 PM
Well, with Jordan owning the Hornets, and the GM (from 2011 to 2018) being an Asian (Burmese), I don't think that applies too well.

I guess "Never attribute to racism what can be adequately explained by stupidity?"

wsb3
05-18-2019, 05:25 PM
I don't my own mock draft or anything but thinking back

1. Carlos Boozer to the 2nd round was ridiculous. I thought he would be a solid NBA player.

2. I also liked Gilbert Arenas, of course based on watching him play with basketballs not guns.

3. Thought Trajan Langdon went way too high.

4. Could not figure why the 76ers would trade up to take Markelle Fultz when they could have sat at 3 and taken Jayson Tatum.


SoCal

I felt exactly as you with 1 & 3. I don't recall having an opinion on 2 and not sure I watched Fultz play but obviously they got it really wrong...

JetpackJesus
05-18-2019, 11:16 PM
I guess "Never attribute to racism what can be adequately explained by stupidity?"

Racism and stupidity go hand-in-hand, though, so I can see why one might have difficulty distinguishing between the two. It's basically squares and rectangles. To be clear, squares=racists and rectangles=stupid people in this analogy.

Norman Pfyster
05-19-2019, 07:41 AM
Awful for a UVA fan to admit, but I WAAAAAY undervalued Brogdon. I thought early-mid second round would be a stretch for a guy who was a TERRIFIC defender in college, but wasn't an elite shooter or athlete and really seemed to lack explosion that would cost him when trying to match up with NBA guards and wings.

Then he goes out, wins RoY, and only improves in successive seasons, even becoming the oh-so-rare 50/40/90 guy this year (check out the other guys on that list, I think they're ALL HoFers). Brogdon seems to be tracking towards fringe All-Star status, and I honestly thought he'd struggle heavily to stick in the league at all. Now he's probably the 3rd/4th best player on a team that's tracking towards the NBA finals.

9394

That's funny, because as a Duke and Bucks fan, I was ecstatic when they picked him in the 2nd; I thought it was a steal. Granted, I didn't know he would become as good as he did, but I still thought he would be a solid pro.

Norman Pfyster
05-19-2019, 07:48 AM
Hindsight is 20/20, and I've been wrong more often than I've been right, but the one that always lingered with me is yelling blue at the tv when the Bucks traded Dirk Nowitzki for Robert "Tractor" Traylor. I obviously didn't know that Nowitzki would turn out to be a perennial all-star, although I was pleased at his profile when the Bucks initially picked him, but I knew Traylor wasn't going to make it as a pro.

The other, lesser one, is that I would have picked Grant Hill rather than Glenn Robinson. Maybe it's the Duke-blue glasses and Robinson was a good player, but Grant Hill was something special.

JasonEvans
05-19-2019, 05:46 PM
When the Atlanta Hawks drafted Josh Childress instead of Luol Deng, I quite literally threw a shoe at the TV and broke the TV.

PackMan97
05-19-2019, 08:35 PM
The one that sticks out in my mind is the Charlotte Hornets drafting Kobe Bryant at 13 and then trading him to LA for Vlade Divac who said he didn't want to leave California. I was so angry, I think that's when I stopped being a Hornets fan.

So not only did the Hornets pass on one of the greatest players of his generation, they traded for someone who was miserable and left as soon as his contract allowed. DUMB DUMB DUMB!

HereBeforeCoachK
05-19-2019, 08:50 PM
The one that sticks out in my mind is the Charlotte Hornets drafting Kobe Bryant at 13 and then trading him to LA for Vlade Divac who said he didn't want to leave California. I was so angry, I think that's when I stopped being a Hornets fan.

So not only did the Hornets pass on one of the greatest players of his generation, they traded for someone who was miserable and left as soon as his contract allowed. DUMB DUMB DUMB!

IIRC: Kobe made it clear he was NOT playing for the Hornets ever.

Matches
05-20-2019, 07:06 AM
Adam Morrison. That dude might as well have had "NBA Bust" tattooed on his forehead.

Kaminsky over Winslow. The Hornets are not smart.

OTOH I thought JJ Redick went too high, and thought Shelden Williams would be far superior to JJ as a pro.

brevity
05-20-2019, 07:16 AM
Kaminsky over Winslow. The Hornets are not smart.

Not sure how the 2019 NBA Draft will shake out, but I feel confident in predicting that Miami will get a better pick at #13 than Charlotte will at #12.

wsb3
05-20-2019, 09:05 AM
I have been wrong so often in who I thought was going to be good or not good in the NBA. Especially with players leaving so early there is always that factor of what will a very young man do when he becomes an instant millionaire.

Acymetric
05-20-2019, 09:06 AM
Not sure how the 2019 NBA Draft will shake out, but I feel confident in predicting that Miami will get a better pick at #13 than Charlotte will at #12.

Boston might get a better pick at #51.

flyingdutchdevil
05-20-2019, 09:18 AM
Was right on:
Terry Rozier being better than advertised
Donovan Mitchell being better than advertised
Okafor being overrated
Jayson Tatum being an absolute stud
Quin Cook making it in the NBA

Was wrong on:
Tyus Jones being a bust
Brandon Ingram being a top 20 player and perennial All-Star
Sheldon Williams being a top 10 defensive player

Was dead wrong on:
JJ Redick being a bust (and he's still my favorite Dukie of all time)

Phredd3
05-20-2019, 10:30 AM
The only NBA prediction I ever recall really making was that Vince Carter should have been the #1 overall pick and shoudl have been picked ahead of Antawn Jamison. Jamison was a solid pro and two-time All-Star, but I always thought that Carter was special. A steal at #5, even if his draft order was artificially swapped in a bizarre draft-day deal. (https://raptorsrapture.com/2016/01/19/raptors-gm-snares-vince-carter-how-it-was-done/) But it turned out that, even though Carter really was special both as a ten-time All-Star and in terms of ridiculous longevity, Jamison was also a better pick than I thought and their careers were closer than I figured they would be.

PackMan97
05-20-2019, 01:40 PM
IIRC: Kobe made it clear he was NOT playing for the Hornets ever.

Great! Then either:
a) don't draft Kobe
-or-
b) don't trade Kobe for a mediocre center who said he didn't want to play outside of California!

It is just one of the most brain dead draft decisions that I can recall. Of course, picking Todd Fuller two spots above Kobe Bryant is also a head scratcher.

...although the Raymond Felton and Sean May draft day was pretty awful and pretty much ended any hornets fandom I still had left. Heck, I have zero idea who is on the team or coaches the team any longer. I do follow enough to know that they aren't named the Bobcats any more. ;)

Truth&Justise
05-21-2019, 09:34 AM
The biggest one I remember being flat-out wrong about was Thomas Robinson from Kansas.

In 2012 Robinson was a consensus first team All-American, averaged around 18 points and 12 rebounds a game, and was fresh off leading Kansas to the title game, where he posted an impressive 18 points and 17 rebounds in the loss to Anthony Davis & Kentucky. At 6'9" he was a little undersized for an NBA post player, but I looked at him and saw the next Carlos Boozer / Zach Randolph / Paul Millsap. And there's an old adage about rebounding translating well from college to the pros--so even if he wasn't a star, his rebounding would at least make him a long-term productive NBA player.

He was drafted #5 overall by the Kings, one pick ahead of Damian Lillard. He didn't even last a full season in Sacramento before getting traded. He played for six teams in five uneventful seasons before fading out of the League.

Sir Stealth
05-21-2019, 11:08 AM
When the Atlanta Hawks drafted Josh Childress instead of Luol Deng, I quite literally threw a shoe at the TV and broke the TV.

Fortunately was not in shoe range of a TV, but I also cursed this loudly at the time. And this was even before they took Marvin Williams over Chris Paul and Deron Williams despite having a glaring hole at point guard! Everyone also knew that was idiotic at the time without needing the benefit hindsight.

Troublemaker
05-21-2019, 11:18 AM
I've generally been pessimistic about Dukies' NBA chances for three decades now. For a long time, it seemed like I was always right. Just as one example, I felt like DBR overhyped Gerald Henderson's chances (with some comparing him to DWade or Kobe) while I thought he would probably have a solid but unspectacular career (since the NBA is full of comparable athletes). I've continued to be pessimistic about Dukies' NBA chances but in recent years, I'm happy to say that I've been wrong A LOT as Dukies continue to outperform my expectations. A recent one I got wrong was Jayson Tatum, who despite suffering through a bit of a 2nd-year slump this season, is probably going to be an All-Star eventually.

budwom
05-21-2019, 02:26 PM
When the Atlanta Hawks drafted Josh Childress instead of Luol Deng, I quite literally threw a shoe at the TV and broke the TV.

The Secret Service would like to know if you've ever seen in Baghdad.

wsb3
05-21-2019, 03:24 PM
I was particularly wrong with players in this draft.

Jerry Stackhouse- had a nice career but I thought he would be a perennial all-star. He did make 2 all-star teams.
Rasheed Wallace- I didn't doubt his talent. He just seemed like such a knucklehead that I figured he would do something stupid and not be in the league long. Well 16 seasons later I was proven quite wrong.
Randolph Childress- No way I thought he would only play two seasons.

rsvman
05-21-2019, 03:36 PM
Was right on Anthony Bennett. Never did see what everybody was excited about. I watched him play in college and didn't even think he was inspiring at the college level.

Was wrong on Nolan Smith. I thought he would do much better than he did.

jimsumner
05-21-2019, 03:52 PM
Was right on Anthony Bennett. Never did see what everybody was excited about. I watched him play in college and didn't even think he was inspiring at the college level.

Was wrong on Nolan Smith. I thought he would do much better than he did.

Ah, Nolan Smith. Try this one on for size. From that 2010 title team, Kyle Singler, Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Lance Thomas and Ryan Kelly all played more minutes in the NBA than did Nolan Smith.

And all six played more NBA minutes than did Jon Scheyer, who after all, was the best player on that team.

But from a Duke perspective, nothing is stranger to me than the two-player Duke class of 1987. Career reserve Marty Nessley played 336 minutes in the NBA, not a lot but 336 more than classmate Tommy Amaker, a four-year starter and all-conference player.

Acymetric
05-21-2019, 04:01 PM
Ah, Nolan Smith. Try this one on for size. From that 2010 title team, Kyle Singler, Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Lance Thomas and Ryan Kelly all played more minutes in the NBA than did Nolan Smith.

And all six played more NBA minutes than did Jon Scheyer, who after all, was the best player on that team.

But from a Duke perspective, nothing is stranger to me than the two-player Duke class of 1987. Career reserve Marty Nessley played 336 minutes in the NBA, not a lot but 336 more than classmate Tommy Amaker, a four-year starter and all-conference player.

Presumably we all know this since we're on a Duke forum, but I'm willing to bet that Scheyer would have gotten quite a few more minutes if not for a significant eye injury. I don't think he every fully recovered his vision?

jimsumner
05-21-2019, 04:10 PM
Presumably we all know this since we're on a Duke forum, but I'm willing to bet that Scheyer would have gotten quite a few more minutes if not for a significant eye injury. I don't think he every fully recovered his vision?

Perhaps. But he went undrafted and suffered that eye injury in a summer-league game. And he did afterwards play overseas, which suggests a recovery.

I had Scheyer pegged as Jeff Hornacek, v.2. Missed that one by a country mile.

budwom
05-21-2019, 04:11 PM
Ah, Nolan Smith. Try this one on for size. From that 2010 title team, Kyle Singler, Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Lance Thomas and Ryan Kelly all played more minutes in the NBA than did Nolan Smith.

And all six played more NBA minutes than did Jon Scheyer, who after all, was the best player on that team.

But from a Duke perspective, nothing is stranger to me than the two-player Duke class of 1987. Career reserve Marty Nessley played 336 minutes in the NBA, not a lot but 336 more than classmate Tommy Amaker, a four-year starter and all-conference player.

Back then I'd attribute Nessley's playing time to the Chuck Nevitt Effect, i.e. anyone over 7-1 got to play, period. Chuck played four years at State and averaged three points per game over his career...then he had an NBA career of 11 seasons, though he averaged only five minutes per game and was given the nickname of the Human Victory Cigar. But tall is tall and Chuck was tall. So was Marty.

jimsumner
05-21-2019, 04:16 PM
Back then I'd attribute Nessley's playing time to the Chuck Nevitt Effect, i.e. anyone over 7-1 got to play, period. Chuck played four years at State and averaged three points per game over his career...then he had an NBA career of 11 seasons, though he averaged only five minutes per game and was given the nickname of the Human Victory Cigar. But tall is tall and Chuck was tall. So was Marty.

You can't teach height. Ivano Newbill, Geoff Crompton and Matt Wenstrom all got NBA cups-of-coffee despite the absence of any real basketball ability.

budwom
05-21-2019, 04:18 PM
You can't teach height. Ivano Newbill, Geoff Crompton and Matt Wenstrom all got NBA cups-of-coffee despite the absence of any real basketball ability.

reminds me of the days when we got to see only a few games/year outside the ACC area, and Al McGuire was always carrying on about "Aircraft Carriers."

sagegrouse
05-21-2019, 04:58 PM
reminds me of the days when we got to see only a few games/year outside the ACC area, and Al McGuire was always carrying on about "Aircraft Carriers."

Not to be confused with Al's "All-Airport Team" -- guys that looked great in the airport but never got to play. Marty Nessley was on it.

construe
05-21-2019, 06:51 PM
I had Scheyer pegged as Jeff Hornacek, v.2. Missed that one by a country mile.

Another similar one I missed, but in the opposite direction (though of course, it's still early), is Luke Kennard. I thought he got away with a lot of trickery in college that would just get shoved down his throat in the pros. But he's sticking in the league and seems to be on track to have a solid career. I could totally see him being another Hornacek, with his clever fakes, odd releases, good FT shooting...(hmmm...and what else do they have in common that also is popping up in these lists of busts?...can't quite put my finger on it...)

jimsumner
05-21-2019, 07:03 PM
Another similar one I missed, but in the opposite direction (though of course, it's still early), is Luke Kennard. I thought he got away with a lot of trickery in college that would just get shoved down his throat in the pros. But he's sticking in the league and seems to be on track to have a solid career. I could totally see him being another Hornacek, with his clever fakes, odd releases, good FT shooting...(hmmm...and what else do they have in common that also is popping up in these lists of busts?...can't quite put my finger on it...)

Well, Hornacek, Scheyer and Kennard all grew up in the Midwest.

That must be it.

construe
05-21-2019, 07:19 PM
That must be it.

"Yeah, yeah, that's the ticket!..." :rolleyes:

btw, glad you brought up Hornacek. Seems like he's often forgotten in the list of great, ahem, melatonin-challenged players during the Jordan era and beyond. Just loved his craftiness, and the pairing with Stockton. Hornacek was kind of a beta-release Nash imo (though there were obv many differences b/w them, too...)

richardjackson199
05-21-2019, 08:40 PM
"Yeah, yeah, that's the ticket!..." :rolleyes:

btw, glad you brought up Hornacek. Seems like he's often forgotten in the list of great, ahem, melatonin-challenged players during the Jordan era and beyond. Just loved his craftiness, and the pairing with Stockton. Hornacek was kind of a beta-release Nash imo (though there were obv many differences b/w them, too...)

If he were melatonin-challenged he would have insomnia.

I think you're saying melanin-challenged. Melanin is the pigment that darkens skin, so I think you're referring to white players. But probably just an autocorrect fail.

JNort
05-21-2019, 08:53 PM
Another similar one I missed, but in the opposite direction (though of course, it's still early), is Luke Kennard. I thought he got away with a lot of trickery in college that would just get shoved down his throat in the pros. But he's sticking in the league and seems to be on track to have a solid career. I could totally see him being another Hornacek, with his clever fakes, odd releases, good FT shooting...(hmmm...and what else do they have in common that also is popping up in these lists of busts?...can't quite put my finger on it...)

Ooo now see I was the opposite. He was on my shortlist of guys I wanted the Hornets to draft and I thought he was easily better than any version Monk would ever be. He is too smart with his moves, he doesn't just do them for the sake of doing them. He takes whatever the defender gives him by doing the best move in that situation and he does it with such precision on his footwork. That combined with his shooting seemed like he was such a safe pick in the draft, only realy problem he will ever have is defense.

richardjackson199
05-21-2019, 09:27 PM
"Yeah, yeah, that's the ticket!..." :rolleyes:

btw, glad you brought up Hornacek. Seems like he's often forgotten in the list of great, ahem, melatonin-challenged players during the Jordan era and beyond. Just loved his craftiness, and the pairing with Stockton. Hornacek was kind of a beta-release Nash imo (though there were obv many differences b/w them, too...)

they make strawberry-flavored gummies of melatonin. But read the warning labels carefully. If you take them you'll see yourself getting pinker by the day.

Full credit to brevity for that joke (and most of the best jokes on DBR). It was in his spork comment, but too funny not to post in main thread. ;)

budwom
05-22-2019, 06:50 AM
good to see Kennard doing well....if he wants to do REALLY well he should take a look at what Redick did...get in superb shape, learn to defend better, and work his butt off....the potential is there.

clinresga
05-22-2019, 07:09 AM
Ah, Nolan Smith. Try this one on for size. From that 2010 title team, Kyle Singler, Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Lance Thomas and Ryan Kelly all played more minutes in the NBA than did Nolan Smith.

And all six played more NBA minutes than did Jon Scheyer, who after all, was the best player on that team.

But from a Duke perspective, nothing is stranger to me than the two-player Duke class of 1987. Career reserve Marty Nessley played 336 minutes in the NBA, not a lot but 336 more than classmate Tommy Amaker, a four-year starter and all-conference player.

Aah, but Jim, those of us who were in the stands when Marty played remember that "Marty doesn't foul!!" His secret super power.

Matches
05-22-2019, 07:19 AM
Aah, but Jim, those of us who were in the stands when Marty played remember that "Marty doesn't foul!!" His secret super power.

Wait, I thought it was Marty Clark who never fouled. Nessley *always* fouled. :)

turnandburn55
05-22-2019, 10:56 AM
Was wrong about:
-Yao Ming. Thought he'd be a stiff
-Shelden Williams. As well as Boozer and Brand turned out, I was stunned that Shelden could hardly get off the bench in the NBA
-Brandon Wright. Thought his game would translate really well to the NBA and he'd be a perennial all-Star
-Derrick Williams. You couldn't have convinced me he'd never average double-digits
-Kemba Walker. I thought solid backup or perhaps serviceable starter.
-MKG. Surprisingly average.

Was right about:
-Andrew Bogut. A fine player in his own right, but I couldn't fathom how everyone catapulted him to the top
-Evan Turner. Role player, not the #2 pick
-Mike Dunleavy. Turned out to have some good years in Indiana, but I thought the NBA was overhyping him out of college.
-Adam Morrison. Didn't think he would be effective in the NBA (though even I didn't foresee him as that much of a bust)
-Hasheem Thabeet. Smelled bust from a mile away

budwom
05-22-2019, 11:18 AM
cranking up the way back machine, I was pretty surprised when 1977 ACC Player of the Year Rod Griffin from Wake bombed in the pros, not sure if he ever played, though he did sign a couple of contracts, got promptly waived....averaged over 20 pts/game his final two seasons, and the ACC was pretty solid back then.

rsvman
05-22-2019, 12:06 PM
Was wrong about:
-Yao Ming. Thought he'd be a stiff
-Shelden Williams. As well as Boozer and Brand turned out, I was stunned that Shelden could hardly get off the bench in the NBA
-Brandon Wright. Thought his game would translate really well to the NBA and he'd be a perennial all-Star
-Derrick Williams. You couldn't have convinced me he'd never average double-digits
-Kemba Walker. I thought solid backup or perhaps serviceable starter.
-MKG. Surprisingly average.

Was right about:
-Andrew Bogut. A fine player in his own right, but I couldn't fathom how everyone catapulted him to the top
-Evan Turner. Role player, not the #2 pick
-Mike Dunleavy. Turned out to have some good years in Indiana, but I thought the NBA was overhyping him out of college.
-Adam Morrison. Didn't think he would be effective in the NBA (though even I didn't foresee him as that much of a bust)
-Hasheem Thabeet. Smelled bust from a mile away

Evan Turner. Yep. Can't shoot.

Thabeet was definitely tall. I didn't see him being that big of a bust in the pros.

JasonEvans
05-22-2019, 12:14 PM
-Andrew Bogut. A fine player in his own right, but I couldn't fathom how everyone catapulted him to the top

Well, it is not like that was a truly terrible pick. Throughout much of his 20s, Bogut was a walking double-double who provided high level rim protection. He was never a big star but he made 3rd team All-NBA one year and was a very solid pro. And it is not like the 2005 draft was loaded with game-changing studs. Other than Chris Paul and Deron Williams, it is a very disappointing draft. I mean, Marvin Williams is the poster child for super-talented guys who underachieved and yet he has the 4th most win shares of anyone in that class. That says a lot more about 2005's weakness than it does about Marvin.

Truth&Justise
05-22-2019, 12:27 PM
Well, it is not like that was a truly terrible pick. Throughout much of his 20s, Bogut was a walking double-double who provided high level rim protection. He was never a big star but he made 3rd team All-NBA one year and was a very solid pro. And it is not like the 2005 draft was loaded with game-changing studs. Other than Chris Paul and Deron Williams, it is a very disappointing draft. I mean, Marvin Williams is the poster child for super-talented guys who underachieved and yet he has the 4th most win shares of anyone in that class. That says a lot more about 2005's weakness than it does about Marvin.

Plus Bogut's career was altered by a freak elbow injury right when he was breaking out (averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks a game). He still went on to be a hugely important piece of Golden State's title win in 2015, anchoring the defense along with Draymond Green. Note he got injured in Game 5 of the 2016 series, and GSW lost that game and the following two.

I think folks generally underrate Bogut's impact.

Acymetric
05-22-2019, 12:44 PM
Well, it is not like that was a truly terrible pick. Throughout much of his 20s, Bogut was a walking double-double who provided high level rim protection. He was never a big star but he made 3rd team All-NBA one year and was a very solid pro. And it is not like the 2005 draft was loaded with game-changing studs. Other than Chris Paul and Deron Williams, it is a very disappointing draft. I mean, Marvin Williams is the poster child for super-talented guys who underachieved and yet he has the 4th most win shares of anyone in that class. That says a lot more about 2005's weakness than it does about Marvin.


Plus Bogut's career was altered by a freak elbow injury right when he was breaking out (averaging 16 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks a game). He still went on to be a hugely important piece of Golden State's title win in 2015, anchoring the defense along with Draymond Green. Note he got injured in Game 5 of the 2016 series, and GSW lost that game and the following two.

I think folks generally underrate Bogut's impact.

If Bogut was a bust, then pretty much every player ever drafted that didn't become a perennial All-Star was a bust. Since most players aren't perennial All-Stars, that seems like too high a bar.

johnb
05-22-2019, 01:17 PM
Jury's still out on some of these guys. I was surprised that overall, more of them surprised to my upside than the reverse.

I thought some would be All Stars and others in a regular rotation: Mark Alarie, Gene Banks, Shelden Williams, Kyle Singler, Jahlil Okafor. I also thought Erik Meek would have been a solid contributor without his accident.

They overperformed my expectations: Carlos Boozer, Mike Dunleavy, Quinn Cook, Seth Curry, Rodney Hood, Amile Jefferson, Ty Jones, Luke Kennard, Mason Plumlee, Lance Thomas

wsb3
05-22-2019, 01:18 PM
If Bogut was a bust, then pretty much every player ever drafted that didn't become a perennial All-Star was a bust. Since most players aren't perennial All-Stars, that seems like too high a bar.

Agreed but when you are the #1 pick overall I do think the bar is higher..Bogut has had a solid career but teams that have the top pick I bet are hoping for more than a solid career.

clinresga
05-22-2019, 03:11 PM
Wait, I thought it was Marty Clark who never fouled. Nessley *always* fouled. :)

In the eyes of his faithful fan club (me and my buddy Bill), Nessley never fouled. We still contest every one that was ever called on him.

jimsumner
05-22-2019, 03:18 PM
Wait, I thought it was Marty Clark who never fouled. Nessley *always* fouled. :)

Hence the irony.

mgtr
05-23-2019, 02:35 AM
Perhaps I missed it, in which case I apologize to the poster who raised it, but the most interesting case in my day is Greg Oden/Kevin Durant/Joakim Noah. The consensus on this board seemed to be in the order listed, with Noah as, at best, a distant third. Oden was incapacitated by really miserable injuries, ending his promising career almost before it started. KD, we understand how he flew to the top (so far), and Noah's light shined brightly for a few years. I wonder how many possible superstars ended up by the boards as a result of debilatating injuries?

johnb
05-23-2019, 06:00 AM
Perhaps I missed it, in which case I apologize to the poster who raised it, but the most interesting case in my day is Greg Oden/Kevin Durant/Joakim Noah. The consensus on this board seemed to be in the order listed, with Noah as, at best, a distant third. Oden was incapacitated by really miserable injuries, ending his promising career almost before it started. KD, we understand how he flew to the top (so far), and Noah's light shined brightly for a few years. I wonder how many possible superstars ended up by the boards as a result of debilatating injuries?



Seven

HereBeforeCoachK
05-23-2019, 06:24 AM
Was right about:
-Andrew Bogut. A fine player in his own right, but I couldn't fathom how everyone catapulted him to the top
-Evan Turner. Role player, not the #2 pick
-Mike Dunleavy. Turned out to have some good years in Indiana, but I thought the NBA was overhyping him out of college.
-Adam Morrison. Didn't think he would be effective in the NBA (though even I didn't foresee him as that much of a bust)
-Hasheem Thabeet. Smelled bust from a mile away

Aren't Adam Morrison and Andrew Bogut the same person??? :D

Matches
05-23-2019, 08:48 AM
Aren't Adam Morrison and Andrew Bogut the same person??? :D

No, but it's an easy mistake to make. Andrew Bogut is actually trapped inside Adam Morrison's hair.

Steven43
05-23-2019, 10:05 AM
good to see Kennard doing well...if he wants to do REALLY well he should take a look at what Redick did...get in superb shape, learn to defend better, and work his butt off...the potential is there.

I think Luke has the potential to be a superior player to JJ. He sees the floor better, has a better handle, is a more gifted passer, and can score from more areas of the court.

budwom
05-23-2019, 11:15 AM
I think Luke has the potential to be a superior player to JJ. He sees the floor better, has a better handle, is a more gifted passer, and can score from more areas of the court.

I guess that's possible, but he'll have a long way to go to match JJ's work ethic..I hope he does

Steven43
05-23-2019, 11:24 AM
I guess that's possible, but he'll have a long way to go to match JJ's work ethic..I hope he does
I think youíre right. It will come down to hard work, dedication, and perseverance. JJ is supreme in those areas.

JayZee
05-23-2019, 11:49 AM
Perhaps I missed it, in which case I apologize to the poster who raised it, but the most interesting case in my day is Greg Oden/Kevin Durant/Joakim Noah. The consensus on this board seemed to be in the order listed, with Noah as, at best, a distant third. Oden was incapacitated by really miserable injuries, ending his promising career almost before it started. KD, we understand how he flew to the top (so far), and Noah's light shined brightly for a few years. I wonder how many possible superstars ended up by the boards as a result of debilatating injuries?

I miss Bill Simmons on ESPN. I just don't have the time/attention to seek him out wherever he is now. I remember him being all over this draft basically screaming that KD should be the #1. And that was before the injuries to Oden. Boy was he right.

I think 2018 with Ayton and Doncic we have something similar brewing in that the imposing, athletic center got taken over the basketball savant. Long term, almost surely the wrong choice.

Luckily for the Pelicans, Zion is both the amazing athlete and is also lightning quick mentally/intellectually.

Troublemaker
05-23-2019, 12:37 PM
I miss Bill Simmons on ESPN. I just don't have the time/attention to seek him out wherever he is now. I remember him being all over this draft basically screaming that KD should be the #1. And that was before the injuries to Oden. Boy was he right.

I think 2018 with Ayton and Doncic we have something similar brewing in that the imposing, athletic center got taken over the basketball savant. Long term, almost surely the wrong choice.

Luckily for the Pelicans, Zion is both the amazing athlete and is also lightning quick mentally/intellectually.

Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game (http://insider.espn.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons&entryDate=20070403). Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

Troublemaker
05-23-2019, 12:42 PM
As for Bogut, besides the injuries, a key was his draft year, 2005. The NBA had just started enforcing handchecking on perimeter players in the mid-2000s and eventually would embrace analytics in a big way, the combination of which would change the sport drastically. Bogut would've been a better player in previous eras before the sport devalued the traditional center by becoming so spread out and focused on threes and rim attacks by perimeter players.

Acymetric
05-23-2019, 12:50 PM
Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game (http://insider.espn.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons&entryDate=20070403). Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

I don't remember there being any significant concern about injuries until after he was drafted...is that correct? If so, honestly that was probably the right choice. Remember, 2007 is not 2019, and traditional centers were still important parts of championship teams. Greg Oden was dominant. On the rare occasions he was able to play, if you extrapolated it out he would have been an absolute beast. Unless you could see the future and know that Oden basically wouldn't be able to play, Oden was the right choice there. There were huge red flags about Durant and whether he would be able to handle physical play at the NBA level.

COYS
05-23-2019, 12:59 PM
Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game (http://insider.espn.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons&entryDate=20070403). Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

To be fair, we pretty much never got to see what a healthy Oden would do in the league. He was ahead of Durant by a mile in WinShares/48 minutes in their rookies seasons, the only season in which Oden was mostly healthy. Durant was an offensive force from the get-go, but it took him a little while to be efficient on offense and respectable on defense. Oden was mostly average on defense and more efficient on offense his rookie year. While I doubt Oden would ever have reached Durant's heights (very few have), he did look like he was on his way to becoming a very good player and possibly a regular All Star in the future. Of course, Oden has had other issues (https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2015/02/03/oden-pleaded-guilty-to-battery-in-deal-with-prosecutors/22837617/) that make it hard for me to care too much about how things turned out for him.

I feel for Portland fans, though. Injuries killed those late '00s, early 10's teams. Brandon Roy and Greg Oden could've, would've, should've been quite the duo.

Troublemaker
05-23-2019, 01:07 PM
I don't remember there being any significant concern about injuries until after he was drafted...is that correct? If so, honestly that was probably the right choice. Remember, 2007 is not 2019, and traditional centers were still important parts of championship teams. Greg Oden was dominant. On the rare occasions he was able to play, if you extrapolated it out he would have been an absolute beast. Unless you could see the future and know that Oden basically wouldn't be able to play, Oden was the right choice there. There were huge red flags about Durant and whether he would be able to handle physical play at the NBA level.

I'm ambivalent about Oden vs Durant; my reply was more about pointing out that Bill Simmons went back and forth on the Oden/Durant debate.

That said, to answer your question, NBA front offices surely knew that Oden walked with a limp, previously had hip surgery in 6th grade, and that one of his legs measured longer than the other (http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2007/11/thats_not_a_limp_thats_just_od.html). I can't recall whether that information made it out to the public pre-draft, though.

AZLA
05-23-2019, 01:21 PM
Taytum. I thought he was better than the 1 and 2 and that proved out. I'm glad he ended up at the Celtics.

I think Cam Reddish should go higher than where he's projected (much higher than 8), and in the Top 5.

NBA is a wide open shooters' league and his height and shooting ability (even though his percentage at Duke was lower than expected) gives him a lot of upside.

Plus if he can grow a beard, develop a patented flop move to draw phantom insta-fouls, and take 3.5 back-steps after "gathering" without getting called for traveling, then the sky is the limit! I'm sorry, the ceiling is the roof.

If Cam doesn't go in the top 5, that will be surprising to me, even though most are projecting him lower.

I think some teams are playing coy to get him earlier.

Troublemaker
05-23-2019, 01:21 PM
I'm ambivalent about Oden vs Durant; my reply was more about pointing out that Bill Simmons went back and forth on the Oden/Durant debate.

That said, to answer your question, NBA front offices surely knew that Oden walked with a limp, previously had hip surgery in 6th grade, and that one of his legs measured longer than the other (http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2007/11/thats_not_a_limp_thats_just_od.html). I can't recall whether that information made it out to the public pre-draft, though.

Just for poops and giggles, I found DBR's Oden vs Durant thread way back when (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?1333-Oden-or-Durant). I certainly wasn't ambivalent then:


Durant. He'll have an easier time trying to take over a game.

Based on what I wrote, even though it wasn't fleshed out (but knowing myself), I think back in 2007 it was already becoming apparent that the game may be moving away from big men. By then, we were 3 years into the NBA enforcing handchecking, and 3 years into D'Antoni's "7 seconds or less" Suns using pace and space to rack up points.

Acymetric
05-23-2019, 01:30 PM
Just for poops and giggles, I found DBR's Oden vs Durant thread way back when (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?1333-Oden-or-Durant). I certainly wasn't ambivalent then:



Based on what I wrote, even though it wasn't fleshed out (but knowing myself), I think back in 2007 it was already becoming apparent that the game may be moving away from big men. By then, we were 3 years into the NBA enforcing handchecking, and 3 years into D'Antoni's "7 seconds or less" Suns using pace and space to rack up points.

The best part of that thread is the feeling of vertigo I got reading the first couple posts seriously discussing whether either guy would go pro or not. A different time indeed.

I also had to restrain myself from replying to 12 year old posts criticizing their bad takes as I read through.

budwom
05-23-2019, 01:38 PM
Taytum. I thought he was better than the 1 and 2 and that proved out. I'm glad he ended up at the Celtics.

I think Cam Reddish should go higher than where he's projected (much higher than 8), and in the Top 5.

NBA is a wide open shooters' league and his height and shooting ability (even though his percentage at Duke was lower than expected) gives him a lot of upside.

Plus if he can grow a beard, develop a patented flop move to draw phantom insta-fouls, and take 3.5 back-steps after "gathering" without getting called for traveling, then the sky is the limit! I'm sorry, the ceiling is the roof.

If Cam doesn't go in the top 5, that will be surprising to me, even though most are projecting him lower.

I think some teams are playing coy to get him earlier.

Perhaps you're right, but his handle is absolutely atrocious, he turns the ball over when not even pressured....there is definite risk to the pick. (I'm pretty sure he won't be a top five pick)...

superdave
05-23-2019, 01:58 PM
It's so tempting to watch a guy dominate and think it will project at the next level. Okafor was a great example of that - averaged 17 and 8 at Duke and won a title. But he lacked the high motor (low steals/blocks) and also shot free throws poorly (51%).

The more Draft writeups and scouting reports I read, the more they are focused on things that translate - steals, blocks, free throw %, wingspan, vertical.

Compare Okafor Steals + Blocks / Games to Zion. 2.18 to 3.91.

That backs up the fact that Zion was diving on the floor and going hard while Okafor was thought to be conserving energy on D.

This year is going to be interesting because outside the top 3, there's a lot of wings who have not really distinguished themselves - Hunter, Culver, Reddish, Nassir Little. They seem to play well every other game. How would you project a guy like Reddish who looks so smooth and effortless vs. Hunter who disappeared so much then dominated crunch time of the Title game?

Reddish had 77 steals/blocks but De'Andre Hunter only had 44. Pace plays a part in those numbers, but on paper Hunter looks kinda light even though he's considered a stopper.

I guess I'll keep my day job, but if I was drafting 4-8 I would trade down.

superdave
05-23-2019, 03:29 PM
Player's Freshman Stats - 3% / FT % / Steals+Blocks per 100 Possessions
Paul George - .447 / .697 / 4.1
Andrew Wiggins - .341 / .775 / 3.8
Cam Reddish - .333 / .772 / 4.0

I dont know how to insert the shrug emoji here, but this makes me want to trade down.

If you could flip the #4 of #5 for the #8 and #10, would you do that? All the guys after the top 3 feels like a crapshoot to me.

Steven43
05-23-2019, 03:42 PM
Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game (http://insider.espn.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons&entryDate=20070403). Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

I donít know about that. I remember Simmons loving pretty much everything about Durant while liking Oden quite a bit, but not as much. Furthermore, I distinctly remember him pointing out that Oden walked and moved awkwardly, almost as if one leg were longer than the other. He foresaw long-term leg injuries for Oden. And he was right.

JayZee
05-23-2019, 03:54 PM
Simmons actually ended up waffling and eventually ranking Oden #1 after Oden played a great national championship game (http://insider.espn.com/espn/page2/blog/index?name=simmons&entryDate=20070403). Of note, Simmons even called Oden a safe bet, asking (in that link) "Let's say you ranked the lottery picks in the draft based on the premise 'If you had to bet your life on it, which guys are the safest bets to become good pros?'" and placing Oden #1.

I only remember the Durant comments, but it was a while ago...

Where were you on Ayton/Doncic last year? Just to be clear, I'm not saying in any sort of confrontational 20/20 hindsight way. I'm just interested in thoughts as it's at least somewhat similar being big/strong/mobile vs scoring/passing/chess piece. And while Doncic is clearly amazing, I don't think it's obvious that he will be better than Ayton long term (though I'd rather have Doncic if I had to pick now)

Troublemaker
05-23-2019, 04:12 PM
I don’t know about that. I remember Simmons loving pretty much everything about Durant while liking Oden quite a bit, but not as much. Furthermore, I distinctly remember him pointing out that Oden walked and moved awkwardly, almost as if one leg were longer than the other. He foresaw long-term leg injuries for Oden. And he was right.

He was right when he had Durant at #1. And he was wrong when he had Oden #1. He held both opinions, as my link shows. Simmons very likely spent more time thinking Durant was #1, though; however, it was not a clean win for Simmons since he did flip-flop.


I only remember the Durant comments, but it was a while ago...

Where were you on Ayton/Doncic last year? Just to be clear, I'm not saying in any sort of confrontational 20/20 hindsight way. I'm just interested in thoughts as it's at least somewhat similar being big/strong/mobile vs scoring/passing/chess piece. And while Doncic is clearly amazing, I don't think it's obvious that he will be better than Ayton long term (though I'd rather have Doncic if I had to pick now)

Yeah, I'm mostly real down on drafting big men #1 these days unless they show great touch (good 3P% and good FT%), quickness, and shotblocking ability (the "unicorn" essentially). I preferred Doncic over Ayton.

Steven43
05-23-2019, 04:44 PM
Yeah, I'm mostly real down on drafting big men #1 these days unless they show great touch (good 3P% and good FT%), quickness, and shotblocking ability (the "unicorn" essentially). I preferred Doncic over Ayton.
100% agree. I canít imagine drafting a big man in the top five if he doesnít project to being at least a 33% 3-pt shooter and at least 70% from the line. Doncic was a no-brainer over Ayton.

CDu
05-23-2019, 04:46 PM
To be fair, we pretty much never got to see what a healthy Oden would do in the league. He was ahead of Durant by a mile in WinShares/48 minutes in their rookies seasons, the only season in which Oden was mostly healthy. Durant was an offensive force from the get-go, but it took him a little while to be efficient on offense and respectable on defense. Oden was mostly average on defense and more efficient on offense his rookie year. While I doubt Oden would ever have reached Durant's heights (very few have), he did look like he was on his way to becoming a very good player and possibly a regular All Star in the future. Of course, Oden has had other issues (https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/2015/02/03/oden-pleaded-guilty-to-battery-in-deal-with-prosecutors/22837617/) that make it hard for me to care too much about how things turned out for him.

I feel for Portland fans, though. Injuries killed those late '00s, early 10's teams. Brandon Roy and Greg Oden could've, would've, should've been quite the duo.

Yeah, I apparently didnít respond to that thread, but I remember being high on Odenís NBA chances. The guy absolutely obliterated two fellow lottery picks (Noah and Horford). He was a stud. And while the game would eventually become an outside-in league, it was still several years away from being true that a low-post big could not dominate.

Unfortunately, the injuries meant we never really got to see Oden. But a guy who was better than Horford and Noah? Yeah, that guy probably would have been really good. Not so much in 2019, but from 2008-2014ish.

subzero02
05-23-2019, 04:52 PM
Was wrong about:
-Yao Ming. Thought he'd be a stiff
-Shelden Williams. As well as Boozer and Brand turned out, I was stunned that Shelden could hardly get off the bench in the NBA
-Brandon Wright. Thought his game would translate really well to the NBA and he'd be a perennial all-Star
-Derrick Williams. You couldn't have convinced me he'd never average double-digits
-Kemba Walker. I thought solid backup or perhaps serviceable starter.
-MKG. Surprisingly average.

Was right about:
-Andrew Bogut. A fine player in his own right, but I couldn't fathom how everyone catapulted him to the top
-Evan Turner. Role player, not the #2 pick
-Mike Dunleavy. Turned out to have some good years in Indiana, but I thought the NBA was overhyping him out of college.
-Adam Morrison. Didn't think he would be effective in the NBA (though even I didn't foresee him as that much of a bust)
-Hasheem Thabeet. Smelled bust from a mile away

3rd team all NBA...

JNort
05-23-2019, 06:27 PM
100% agree. I canít imagine drafting a big man in the top five if he doesnít project to being at least a 33% 3-pt shooter and at least 70% from the line. Doncic was a no-brainer over Ayton.

Agreed. It's why I thought the best strategy was to grab a guard or foward in that draft and then trade back in for Mitchell Robinson who I was high on (got him in our DBR mock for the Lakers). I was very firmly on the Doncic train and was for the Durant over Oden train too.

Nugget
05-23-2019, 06:31 PM
The best part of that thread is the feeling of vertigo I got reading the first couple posts seriously discussing whether either guy would go pro or not. A different time indeed.

I also had to restrain myself from replying to 12 year old posts criticizing their bad takes as I read through.

DBR in a nutshell! Nice.

JNort
05-23-2019, 07:08 PM
Just for poops and giggles, I found DBR's Oden vs Durant thread way back when (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?1333-Oden-or-Durant). I certainly wasn't ambivalent then:



Based on what I wrote, even though it wasn't fleshed out (but knowing myself), I think back in 2007 it was already becoming apparent that the game may be moving away from big men. By then, we were 3 years into the NBA enforcing handchecking, and 3 years into D'Antoni's "7 seconds or less" Suns using pace and space to rack up points.
Most interesting part of that thread? This right here is telling about the difference in the NBA today:

"Take a look at the teams that won the NBA Championship and the MVP in the post-Jordan era.

2005-06 Miami Heat Dwyane Wade
2004-05 San Antonio Spurs Tim Duncan
2003-04 Detroit Pistons Chauncey Billups
2002-03 San Antonio Spurs Tim Duncan
2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers Shaquille O'Neal
2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers Shaquille O'Neal
1999-00 Los Angeles Lakers Shaquille O'Neal
1998-99 San Antonio Spurs Tim Duncan"

Only Dirk since then has gotten finals MVP as a big.

fraggler
05-23-2019, 08:30 PM
100% agree. I canít imagine drafting a big man in the top five if he doesnít project to being at least a 33% 3-pt shooter and at least 70% from the line. Doncic was a no-brainer over Ayton.

But Ayton satisfied your criteria - he shot 34% from 3 and 73% from the FT line in college. Why was Doncic a no-brainer of Ayton?

Steven43
05-23-2019, 10:49 PM
But Ayton satisfied your criteria - he shot 34% from 3 and 73% from the FT line in college. Why was Doncic a no-brainer of Ayton?

Hmm, Iím honestly surprised Aytonís 3-pt and FT percentages were that high. I had thought his numbers were lower. Still, I would have to know more about his 3-pt shooting, such as volume of shots, whether or not he can hit them while guarded, etc. Furthermore, I only used those percentages as a baseline starting point, not an end point. But I will admit that my characterization of it being a ďno-brainerĒ may have been a bit too strong.

JNort
05-24-2019, 08:26 AM
But Ayton satisfied your criteria - he shot 34% from 3 and 73% from the FT line in college. Why was Doncic a no-brainer of Ayton?

For me it's because he can't create off the dribble. He has to be fed. Also defensively he can only guard other 5s and some 4s.

JohnJ
05-24-2019, 10:14 AM
But Ayton satisfied your criteria - he shot 34% from 3 and 73% from the FT line in college. Why was Doncic a no-brainer of Ayton?

But he only had a total of 35 3pt. attempts in college - not enough to judge his 3pt. Shooting.

JNort
05-25-2019, 05:19 AM
But he only had a total of 35 3pt. attempts in college - not enough to judge his 3pt. Shooting.

The scouts disagreed with you, that is what they loved about Ayton, JJJ, and Carter. They projected to be good or solid outside shooters where they didn't think Bagley would.

JasonEvans
05-25-2019, 02:47 PM
There were huge red flags about Durant and whether he would be able to handle physical play at the NBA level.

I think folks forget how rail thin Durant was back when he was a college player. He looked like you could break him in half with a stiff breeze.

Here is an actual photo of KD playing for Texas.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e6/90/c8/e690c8de797c0c505d5b922375900e59.jpg

sagegrouse
05-25-2019, 02:53 PM
I think folks forget how rail thin Durant was back when he was a college player. He looked like you could break him in half with a stiff breeze.

Here is an actual photo of KD playing for Texas.



Hah! KD was the only player at the 2007 NBA draft combine that could not bench press 185 pounds -- even once! His performance afterwards led me to conclude that NBA success was only loosely related to such athletic measurables.

Overall, according to one newspaper article at the time, he was 78th out of 80 basketball players in the performance tests.

jimsumner
05-25-2019, 03:10 PM
I think folks forget how rail thin Durant was back when he was a college player. He looked like you could break him in half with a stiff breeze.

Here is an actual photo of KD playing for Texas.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e6/90/c8/e690c8de797c0c505d5b922375900e59.jpg

Two thumbs up!!

Steven43
05-25-2019, 03:32 PM
The scouts disagreed with you, that is what they loved about Ayton, JJJ, and Carter. They projected to be good or solid outside shooters where they didn't think Bagley would.

Hmm. Considering that for the season Ayton shot a less than sterling 0.0% on his three-pt attempts while Bagley shot a fairly respectable 31.3% it would appear the scouts may have missed on this one.

Acymetric
05-28-2019, 08:39 AM
Hah! KD was the only player at the 2007 NBA draft combine that could not bench press 185 pounds -- even once! His performance afterwards led me to conclude that NBA success was only loosely related to such athletic measurables.

Overall, according to one newspaper article at the time, he was 78th out of 80 basketball players in the performance tests.

Not being able to bench 185 is...pretty bad though. Like...did he just not lift weights at all​ in high school or college?

Truth&Justise
05-28-2019, 09:34 AM
Most interesting part of that thread? This right here is telling about the difference in the NBA today:

"Take a look at the teams that won the NBA Championship and the MVP in the post-Jordan era.

2005-06 Miami Heat Dwyane Wade
2004-05 San Antonio Spurs Tim Duncan
2003-04 Detroit Pistons Chauncey Billups
2002-03 San Antonio Spurs Tim Duncan
2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers Shaquille O'Neal
2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers Shaquille O'Neal
1999-00 Los Angeles Lakers Shaquille O'Neal
1998-99 San Antonio Spurs Tim Duncan"

Only Dirk since then has gotten finals MVP as a big.

Not only is Dirk the only big to win Finals MVP since then, but this trend has been taken to absurd lengths when you remember the last two centers to start for the championship winning team: Zaza Pachulia and Javale McGee. That's just comedic. Imagine telling that to someone in 2007!

Acymetric
05-28-2019, 09:45 AM
Dirk isn't exactly your prototypical back-to-the-basket big either.

superdave
05-28-2019, 12:26 PM
Not only is Dirk the only big to win Finals MVP since then, but this trend has been taken to absurd lengths when you remember the last two centers to start for the championship winning team: Zaza Pachulia and Javale McGee. That's just comedic. Imagine telling that to someone in 2007!

I was listening to an NBA pod the other day and they basically said dont draft or sign any centers unless they can put the ball on the floor, shoot 3's and run pick and roll. Otherwise pick up a replacement level center at veteran minimum and worry about everything else.

Bol Bol might be an interesting test of that theory. Top 10 talent. Can shoot the 3. Probably not mobile enough to run pick and roll or dribble drive. My guess is that pushes him outside the top 10.

That theory also says Ayton was a bad choice because you will eventually be maxing out a guy who limits the offense you can run.

Indoor66
05-28-2019, 12:56 PM
Not being able to bench 185 is...pretty bad though. Like...did he just not lift weights at all​ in high school or college?

I agree. I benched 180 at 74 years!

elvis14
05-28-2019, 01:27 PM
I think folks forget how rail thin Durant was back when he was a college player. He looked like you could break him in half with a stiff breeze.

Here is an actual photo of KD playing for Texas.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e6/90/c8/e690c8de797c0c505d5b922375900e59.jpg


I thought that was a picture of Brandon Ingram!?!

I don't have to go back and read that old thread (I'm pretty sure I posted in it). I thought Durant was a dime-a-dozen wing that would be good but just like a bunch of other wings and I thought Oden was going to be great. Wrong and more wrong.

JayZee
05-28-2019, 01:31 PM
I agree. I benched 180 at 74 years!

I seem to remember that there was at least some noise that his 7'5" wingspan made it harder to do a bench press.

Acymetric
05-28-2019, 01:58 PM
I seem to remember that there was at least some noise that his 7'5" wingspan made it harder to do a bench press.

There was some of that, and a longer wingspan does make benching harder....but not harder enough.

Does anyone have a good source for historical combine stats? Preferably one that doesn't require looking at one year at at time?

bundabergdevil
05-28-2019, 02:03 PM
I seem to remember that there was at least some noise that his 7'5" wingspan made it harder to do a bench press.

Hah! This thread has descended into one big "do you even lift, bro?" meme directed toward one of the greatest basketball players of all time. Solid.

According to NBA Draft Combine result (https://stats.nba.com/draft/combine-strength-agility/?SeasonYear=2019-20#!?sort=BENCH_PRESS&dir=-1), there are usually a basket of guys who lift 185 somewhere between 0 and 2/3x. To your point, given their dimensions and wingspans, that shouldn't be terribly surprising. Someone with Durant's wingspan lifting 185 has to do a lot more work than your average proportioned Joe in the gym.

And color me surprised that Carlos Boozer only benched 2x more than Dunleavy in the 2002-2003 combine. Would have assumed that, if left to it, Boozer would still be benching today.

Acymetric
05-28-2019, 03:22 PM
Hah! This thread has descended into one big "do you even lift, bro?" meme directed toward one of the greatest basketball players of all time. Solid.

According to NBA Draft Combine result (https://stats.nba.com/draft/combine-strength-agility/?SeasonYear=2019-20#!?sort=BENCH_PRESS&dir=-1), there are usually a basket of guys who lift 185 somewhere between 0 and 2/3x. To your point, given their dimensions and wingspans, that shouldn't be terribly surprising. Someone with Durant's wingspan lifting 185 has to do a lot more work than your average proportioned Joe in the gym.

And color me surprised that Carlos Boozer only benched 2x more than Dunleavy in the 2002-2003 combine. Would have assumed that, if left to it, Boozer would still be benching today.

That is pretty amusing...I definitely would have expected Boozer to be a benching machine.

camion
05-28-2019, 03:32 PM
I agree. I benched 180 at 74 years!

I can bench 180 minus my age. :)

turnandburn55
05-29-2019, 01:13 PM
Compare Okafor Steals + Blocks / Games to Zion. 2.18 to 3.91.



Shelden William's senior year would be a 5.47. And he shot nearly 75% from the line. That's one I have to be most baffled about having so little impact in the league

Steven43
05-29-2019, 02:37 PM
Shelden William's senior year would be a 5.47. And he shot nearly 75% from the line. That's one I have to be most baffled about having so little impact in the league

I think blocked shots are overvalued. They often donít even result in a turnover. Youíre better off simply altering the opponentís shot but not blocking it because you (as the alterer of said shot) and your teammates should be better positioned than the opposition to rebound an altered shot. A blocked shot is more likely to go to an opponent or out of bounds than to a teammate.

superdave
05-29-2019, 03:32 PM
Shelden William's senior year would be a 5.47. And he shot nearly 75% from the line. That's one I have to be most baffled about having so little impact in the league

Shelden was a significantly undersized center by NBA standards. He did make $12m in his NBA career though.

Acymetric
05-29-2019, 03:55 PM
I think blocked shots are overvalued. They often donít even result in a turnover. Youíre better off simply altering the opponentís shot but not blocking it because you (as the alterer of said shot) and your teammates should be better positioned than the opposition to rebound an altered shot. A blocked shot is more likely to go to an opponent or out of bounds than to a teammate.

Did you watch Shelden play? His blocks were regarded as particularly effective because he tended to pull the ball down instead of swatting it any which way.

Also, a blocked shot is much more likely not to end up in the basket than a not-blocked shot.


Shelden was a significantly undersized center by NBA standards. He did make $12m in his NBA career though.

Undersized and lacking in the athleticism to make up for it. I was surprised he didn't carve out a better long-term reserve role, but I don't think I ever thought he would be a regular NBA starter.

Steven43
05-29-2019, 04:32 PM
Did you watch Shelden play? His blocks were regarded as particularly effective because he tended to pull the ball down instead of swatting it any which way.

Also, a blocked shot is much more likely not to end up in the basket than a not-blocked shot.



Undersized and lacking in the athleticism to make up for it. I was surprised he didn't carve out a better long-term reserve role, but I don't think I ever thought he would be a regular NBA starter.
Yes, I watched pretty much every game Williams played in while at Duke. And sure, a blocked shot wonít go in the basket, but an altered shot almost never will either. I still donít see a compelling reason to believe the defense ends up with a better outcome by blocking a shot rather than altering it. I believe itís the other way around.

If Williams were a great defender ó as supposedly evidenced by his high block percentage ó I think he would have played more seasons in the NBA than he did. Thereís always a place for a good rim protector. Anyway, I hope he is doing well. I always liked Shelden and was quite happy when Boston drafted him.

NSDukeFan
05-29-2019, 04:46 PM
Yes, I watched pretty much every game Williams played in while at Duke. And sure, a blocked shot wonít go in the basket, but an altered shot almost never will either. I still donít see a compelling reason to believe the defense ends up with a better outcome by blocking a shot rather than altering it. I believe itís the other way around.

If Williams were a great defender ó as supposedly evidenced by his high block percentage ó I think he would have played more seasons in the NBA than he did. Thereís always a place for a good rim protector. Anyway, I hope he is doing well. I always liked Shelden and was quite happy when Boston drafted him.

My guess is that there is a reasonably high correlation between shots blocked and shots altered. I expect the Landlord was an exceptional rim protector in college, but not good enough in the NBA.

Troublemaker
05-29-2019, 05:14 PM
My guess is that there is a reasonably high correlation between shots blocked and shots altered. I expect the Landlord was an exceptional rim protector in college, but not good enough in the NBA.

Right. There's probably never been a defender who alters lots of shots without also blocking many others. It is the fear of the blocked shot that causes offensive players to alter their shots.

The greatest defender ever certainly believed in the blocked shot. He was also known for keeping them in play, which of course I would agree is better than blocking them out of bounds.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWFsL4Y8RVA

NSDukeFan
05-29-2019, 05:50 PM
Right. There's probably never been a defender who alters lots of shots without also blocking many others. It is the fear of the blocked shot that causes offensive players to alter their shots.

The greatest defender ever certainly believed in the blocked shot. He was also known for keeping them in play, which of course I would agree is better than blocking them out of bounds.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWFsL4Y8RVA

I was also a fan of the Zion shot swallow where he just grabbed an opponentís shot.

SupaDave
05-29-2019, 06:18 PM
Basically ANYONE drafted by the NY Knicks since 2006 has been OVER valued...

cato
05-29-2019, 06:29 PM
Seven

Uh oh. I had it on good authority that the answer was forty-two.

I probably shouldnít have bet the world on that.