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porkpa
04-23-2019, 05:36 AM
Assuming that at least one of DeLaurier and Bolden return, we will likely have the deepest bench a Duke team has ever had.
My question relates to whether or not it will be utilized.
Granting that Coach K is the greatest basketball coach ever. If he has an achilles heel, it has arguably been the fact that lots of talent have sat or the bench with little or no playing time.

JetpackJesus
04-23-2019, 05:59 AM
Assuming that at least one of DeLaurier and Bolden return, we will likely have the deepest bench a Duke team has ever had.
My question relates to whether or not it will be utilized.
Granting that Coach K is the greatest basketball coach ever. If he has an achilles heel, it has arguably been the fact that lots of talent have sat or the bench with little or no playing time.

Duke has 13 scholarship players and some non-scholarship players. I suspect most of the guys will need somewhere to sit during games. So the bench/chairs will be utilized.

Kidding aside, I assume K goes 7-8 deep because, well, K goes 7-8 deep. He has 1k+ more wins and 5 more Natty's than me, so in conclusion, 9F!

porkpa
04-23-2019, 06:01 AM
Unfortunately IMO, you are probably correct.

Troublemaker
04-23-2019, 06:54 AM
Not past 8 players. Hope for 8, as that's realistic. 8 is also a very good bench when you have 3 non-starters contributing consistently. (The idea that 8 is not deep would be silly [not that it was necessarily pushed here]; comb through box scores from the NCAA tournament.)

YmoBeThere
04-23-2019, 07:44 AM
Do bonfires still happen? I remember burning a few benches during my days on Crowell Quad.

MarkD83
04-23-2019, 07:49 AM
is not so much whether Coach K will play 7-9 players, but who we have on the bench for the inevitable injury. I hate to say it but injuries have been a big part of seasonal "success" for Duke in the past 8-10 years.

With that being said and after reading assessments on this board, Duke has a lot of bodies at all positions. Tre and Jordan at the point; Cassius, Boogie; Alex in the backcourt; Jack; Matthew; Wendell; Joey at the wing; Vernon; Javin and Marques near the basket.

They each do bring different skill levels but I don't see Duke relying on a core 3 players for 90% of the scoring or on 2-3 players for defense.

Tre at the point is perhaps the only position where an injury would be very damaging (I said this in April so that the weauxf gods would forget this by October).

elvis14
04-23-2019, 09:14 AM
No. Next question....

kcduke75
04-23-2019, 09:34 AM
No. Next question...

My next question is why do people use the word UTILIZE?

It is USED way too often (get it?) and makes a little vomit come up in my throat because it appears to be Dicky V's favorite word.

flyingdutchdevil
04-23-2019, 09:38 AM
Nope!

With all of our players, should be a really, really fun off-season with minute speculation.

Tre Jones. That's all I really know at this point... (get it)

DavidBenAkiva
04-23-2019, 09:52 AM
Not past 8 players. Hope for 8, as that's realistic. 8 is also a very good bench when you have 3 non-starters contributing consistently. (The idea that 8 is not deep would be silly [not that it was necessarily pushed here]; comb through box scores from the NCAA tournament.)

Did we not just finish a season with a 9 player rotation? Some of that was due to injuries, but there were 9 guys that played 33+ games and at least 8.5 minutes. I don't expect that to be the norm, but this idea that Coach K is so rigid that he only plays 7 or 8 guys is silly. Hell, UVA only played 7 or 8 guys all year. Most every team plays somewhere between 7 and 9 players.

As I look at this roster - assuming Bolden and DeLaurier return - there are natural tiers that appear to me.

Tier 1: Definite Starters
Tre Jones, Wendell Moore, Matthew Hurt, and Vernon Carey, Jr.

Jones is an obvious starter and will get 35+ minutes a game. I think Moore and Hurt will get 30+ minutes a game as well as they are highly-rated 5-star prospects that play positions of need for Duke. Vernon Carey, Jr. is also an obvious starter as a low-post scorer and occasional jump shooter that will average something like 25-30 minutes a game due to foul trouble or conditioning.

Tier 2: Potential Starters
Jack White, Javin DeLaurier, Marques Bolden, Alex O'Connell, Cassius Stanley

After Tier 1, the most interesting question of the offseason will be about who fills that last starting spot. I think the clubhouse leader will be Jack White. This will be a controversial take on this board, no doubt. But he gives the team positional flexibility to switch on defense with Moore and Hurt. He is an excellent rebounder that can help Hurt and Carey on the glass. And he has the potential of being a good 3-point shooter. If White doesn't work out, I think Javin is the guy. He can switch onto most wings in college or play up. He provides shot blocking and can be a real glue guy alongside Carey or Hurt. After that, it's possible Bolden starts, but I think bench big playing 15-20 minutes a game is more likely. We could see AOC or Stanely also grab that 5th starting spot and I expect each to start at least 1 game this season. One or both could surprise with their development this offseason. O'Connell needs to improve his assertiveness and defensive awareness. We'll see what Stanley brings to the table.

Tier 3: Deep Bench
Joey Baker, Jordan Goldwire, Boogie Ellis, Justin Robinson

I waffled on where to put Baker. I think his best basketball is ahead of him. We might see some glimpses of it this next season. More likely, 2020-21 will start to show us the real Joey Buckets. We have seen Goldwire perform well in spots and I do expect to see him most games as relief for Jones during the first half or if the team wants to press. Unless and until he finds a reliable outside shot, though, I don't see him getting more than 5-10 minutes a game max. Ellis is another interesting option as he seems to have a needed skill - shooting - and at a position - guard - that Duke could use that skill. I have a hunch, though, that he will not see the floor much as a freshman. He could become a starting guard in time. Hopefully he surprises. And Robinson will be a 5th-year senior and could see some garbage time as a replacement for Hurt and White. I hope to see him play a lot as that means there will be many blowouts. Robinson will be the human victory cigar next season.

Tier 4: Walk-Ons
Mike Buckmire, Keenan Worthington, Michael Savarino

It's great to have you here, boys!

Lord Ash
04-23-2019, 10:11 AM
Probably not. K seems all-in on the "ride your best horses as much as possible" approach.

Matches
04-23-2019, 10:15 AM
I've always been of the mind that, given a total of 200 minutes in most college bball games, there really aren't enough minutes for more than about 8 guys to get significant PT. I'm aware that some teams play 10-11 guys regularly but those tend to be teams without stars. At Duke I feel like we're always going to want at least 30-35 minutes each out of our top three guys or so, which only leaves about 100 for the rest of the team.

And really, don't we want to have our best players on the floor as much as possible?

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
04-23-2019, 10:20 AM
Did we not just finish a season with a 9 player rotation? Some of that was due to injuries, but there were 9 guys that played 33+ games and at least 8.5 minutes. I don't expect that to be the norm, but this idea that Coach K is so rigid that he only plays 7 or 8 guys is silly. Hell, UVA only played 7 or 8 guys all year. Most every team plays somewhere between 7 and 9 players.

As I look at this roster - assuming Bolden and DeLaurier return - there are natural tiers that appear to me.

Tier 1: Definite Starters
Tre Jones, Wendell Moore, Matthew Hurt, and Vernon Carey, Jr.

Jones is an obvious starter and will get 35+ minutes a game. I think Moore and Hurt will get 30+ minutes a game as well as they are highly-rated 5-star prospects that play positions of need for Duke. Vernon Carey, Jr. is also an obvious starter as a low-post scorer and occasional jump shooter that will average something like 25-30 minutes a game due to foul trouble or conditioning.

Tier 2: Potential Starters
Jack White, Javin DeLaurier, Marques Bolden, Alex O'Connell, Cassius Stanley

After Tier 1, the most interesting question of the offseason will be about who fills that last starting spot. I think the clubhouse leader will be Jack White. This will be a controversial take on this board, no doubt. But he gives the team positional flexibility to switch on defense with Moore and Hurt. He is an excellent rebounder that can help Hurt and Carey on the glass. And he has the potential of being a good 3-point shooter. If White doesn't work out, I think Javin is the guy. He can switch onto most wings in college or play up. He provides shot blocking and can be a real glue guy alongside Carey or Hurt. After that, it's possible Bolden starts, but I think bench big playing 15-20 minutes a game is more likely. We could see AOC or Stanely also grab that 5th starting spot and I expect each to start at least 1 game this season. One or both could surprise with their development this offseason. O'Connell needs to improve his assertiveness and defensive awareness. We'll see what Stanley brings to the table.

Tier 3: Deep Bench
Joey Baker, Jordan Goldwire, Boogie Ellis, Justin Robinson

I waffled on where to put Baker. I think his best basketball is ahead of him. We might see some glimpses of it this next season. More likely, 2020-21 will start to show us the real Joey Buckets. We have seen Goldwire perform well in spots and I do expect to see him most games as relief for Jones during the first half or if the team wants to press. Unless and until he finds a reliable outside shot, though, I don't see him getting more than 5-10 minutes a game max. Ellis is another interesting option as he seems to have a needed skill - shooting - and at a position - guard - that Duke could use that skill. I have a hunch, though, that he will not see the floor much as a freshman. He could become a starting guard in time. Hopefully he surprises. And Robinson will be a 5th-year senior and could see some garbage time as a replacement for Hurt and White. I hope to see him play a lot as that means there will be many blowouts. Robinson will be the human victory cigar next season.

Tier 4: Walk-Ons
Mike Buckmire, Keenan Worthington, Michael Savarino

It's great to have you here, boys!

Well, I certainly hope Baker's best basketball is ahead of him. If it isn't, I suppose burning the redshirt was irrelevant.

fuse
04-23-2019, 10:38 AM
A great unanswerable question due to lack of information.

The premise that we’ll likely see a 7-8 player rotation has the weight of historical data.

I don’t think next year’s team will rival 1999 (although I will heartily enjoy it if they do), when K has had the talent, he has platooned.

Kedsy
04-23-2019, 10:46 AM
Did we not just finish a season with a 9 player rotation?

No, we didn't. Though I suppose it depends on how you define "rotation."

Here's a list of our end-of-season close games (under 20 points) and how many guys played 10+ minutes in those games:

UNC (last regular season game) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
Syracuse (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 10+ minutes;
UNC (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 10+ minutes;
FSU (ACCT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
UCF (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
VaTech (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
MSU (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes.

That doesn't at all look like a 9-player rotation.

kAzE
04-23-2019, 10:52 AM
It's a long season. Coach K will go deep into the bench early in the year. There will be garbage time minutes. Guys will inevitably get nicked up, and other players will have to step up. All of the guys on the team will get minutes.

When it's postseason time, we'll go 7-8 deep.

DavidBenAkiva
04-23-2019, 10:56 AM
No, we didn't. Though I suppose it depends on how you define "rotation."

Here's a list of our end-of-season close games (under 20 points) and how many guys played 10+ minutes in those games:

UNC (last regular season game) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
Syracuse (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 10+ minutes;
UNC (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 10+ minutes;
FSU (ACCT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
UCF (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
VaTech (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
MSU (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes.

That doesn't at all look like a 9-player rotation.

10 is such an arbitrary number. The fact is, 9 guys played 8.5 minutes per game and all of those guys played 33 or more games in the season.

Matches
04-23-2019, 11:00 AM
10 is such an arbitrary number. The fact is, 9 guys played 8.5 minutes per game and all of those guys played 33 or more games in the season.

Sure, but we weren't going that deep in individual games. In any given (competitive) game we were usually playing 6-7 guys.

HereBeforeCoachK
04-23-2019, 11:01 AM
Assuming that at least one of DeLaurier and Bolden return, we will likely have the deepest bench a Duke team has ever had.
My question relates to whether or not it will be utilized.
.

The chairs will be utilized for sure......

AtlDuke72
04-23-2019, 11:03 AM
Assuming that at least one of DeLaurier and Bolden return, we will likely have the deepest bench a Duke team has ever had.
My question relates to whether or not it will be utilized.
Granting that Coach K is the greatest basketball coach ever. If he has an achilles heel, it has arguably been the fact that lots of talent have sat or the bench with little or no playing time.

This question is like pollen - it happens every Spring.

MCFinARL
04-23-2019, 11:04 AM
is not so much whether Coach K will play 7-9 players, but who we have on the bench for the inevitable injury. I hate to say it but injuries have been a big part of seasonal "success" for Duke in the past 8-10 years.

With that being said and after reading assessments on this board, Duke has a lot of bodies at all positions. Tre and Jordan at the point; Cassius, Boogie; Alex in the backcourt; Jack; Matthew; Wendell; Joey at the wing; Vernon; Javin and Marques near the basket.

They each do bring different skill levels but I don't see Duke relying on a core 3 players for 90% of the scoring or on 2-3 players for defense.

Tre at the point is perhaps the only position where an injury would be very damaging (I said this in April so that the weauxf gods would forget this by October).

Yes, but this isn't the only benefit. It's easy to forget how valuable those players are in practice, so that the regulars can be challenged and there are players skilled enough to replicate the styles of particular opponents. Maybe not the most satisfying role for the players or the fans, but a crucial one nonetheless.

UrinalCake
04-23-2019, 11:07 AM
No, we didn't. Though I suppose it depends on how you define "rotation."


Having a 9 player rotation doesn’t have to mean 9 guys play in every game. It could mean 5 guys play in every game and then 4 guys are in a group that could each step up and play 10-20 minutes in a given game, but it’s a different guy each game. So we’re playing 6-7 guys each game, out of a 9 man rotation.

I think that’s the pattern we saw last season. Javin and Bolden basically split minutes at the 5, but took turns starting. Other than the four freshmen we started the year with Jack as our 6th man playing 30+ minutes, then when he fell off we saw Goldwire get more minutes. In a couple games Alex stepped up. It just depends on the matchup and who is playing well in that game.

Kedsy
04-23-2019, 11:08 AM
10 is such an arbitrary number. The fact is, 9 guys played 8.5 minutes per game and all of those guys played 33 or more games in the season.

10 is arbitrary? But 8.5 isn't arbitrary at all, got it.

In any event, here's a list of our end-of-season close games (under 20 points) and how many guys played 8.5+ minutes in those games:

UNC (last regular season game) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
Syracuse (ACCT) -- 8 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UNC (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
FSU (ACCT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UCF (NCAAT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
VaTech (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
MSU (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes.

Still doesn't at all look like a 9-player rotation.

JNort
04-23-2019, 11:20 AM
Assuming that at least one of DeLaurier and Bolden return, we will likely have the deepest bench a Duke team has ever had.
My question relates to whether or not it will be utilized.
Granting that Coach K is the greatest basketball coach ever. If he has an achilles heel, it has arguably been the fact that lots of talent have sat or the bench with little or no playing time.

First off no, we will go 7 or 8 deep.

Aa for the bolded, I wonder if a day will ever come when people stop saying this. It is said almost every year.

Green Wave Dukie
04-23-2019, 12:17 PM
This question is like pollen - it happens every Spring.

Yep, I notice this topic starts warming up every year about this time.

CDu
04-23-2019, 12:18 PM
Did we not just finish a season with a 9 player rotation? Some of that was due to injuries, but there were 9 guys that played 33+ games and at least 8.5 minutes.


No, we didn't. Though I suppose it depends on how you define "rotation."

Here's a list of our end-of-season close games (under 20 points) and how many guys played 10+ minutes in those games:

UNC (last regular season game) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
Syracuse (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 10+ minutes;
UNC (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 10+ minutes;
FSU (ACCT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
UCF (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
VaTech (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
MSU (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes.

That doesn't at all look like a 9-player rotation.

In addition to Kedsy's point, it's worth noting that our 7 main rotation players (Barrett, Williamson, Jones, Reddish, DeLaurier, Bolden, White) missed effectively 14 games with injuries/illness. Conservatively, that's over 400 minutes (or over 10 minutes per game) that had to be accounted for by guys who would have otherwise been completely outside the rotation. Take those minutes away from O'Connell and Goldwire and we're back to a more typical Coach K lineup, with 7 rotation players, an 8th getting in the 8 mpg range, and a 9th getting 3-5 mpg.


Tier 3: Deep BenchJoey Baker, Jordan Goldwire, Boogie Ellis, Justin Robinson

Minor quibble, but I'd list Robinson either with the other walk-ons or somewhere in between Tier 3 and Tier 4. He really shouldn't be in the same group as heavily recruited players like Baker and Ellis or even more lightly recruited players like Goldwire. He's a walk-on who happens to get a scholarship when one is available, and who may be slightly higher in the playing time pecking order than the other walk-ons.

DallasDevil
04-23-2019, 12:29 PM
10 is arbitrary? But 8.5 isn't arbitrary at all, got it.

In any event, here's a list of our end-of-season close games (under 20 points) and how many guys played 8.5+ minutes in those games:

UNC (last regular season game) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
Syracuse (ACCT) -- 8 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UNC (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
FSU (ACCT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UCF (NCAAT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
VaTech (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
MSU (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes.

Still doesn't at all look like a 9-player rotation.

Well, 8.5 wasn't arbitrary because it's the actual number of minutes averaged by the player who played in the vast majority of games with the lowest minutes. I didn't interpret DavidBenAkiva's post to mean that 8.5 minutes/game was a better number to use than 10, but rather that a reasonable definition of which players are in the rotation can go beyond looking at a set number of minutes played. Also, I don't think anyone is disputing that in close end-of-year games the best players get the most minutes. But if we are saying only players who play 10+ minutes per game in each close end-of-year game for which they are healthy are in the rotation, then we had a 5-6 man "rotation." The last home game against Wake Forest was a 1 point game, so I'd add that to your list of close end-of-season games. In those 8 games, only Zion, RJ, Tre, Cam, and Javin played 10+ in each game they were available. We can add Bolden who only played 9 minutes in the game he returned from injury. However, in that span AOC averaged 12 min/game, started 3 games (due to injuries to others), and only had 1 DNP-CD. Goldwire averaged over 10 min/game with 0 DNP-CD (but only getting in for less than 1 minute against MSU). Jack White also averaged over 10 minutes per game and played in every game for which he was healthy. I doubt that any player or coach on the team would say that those 9 guys were not in the rotation, and I think it's reasonable to take the position that all 9 of those players were in the rotation this past year. Injuries certainly contributed to freeing up more minutes for bench players, but I think all 9 of those guys had a contributing role on the team.

Truth&Justise
04-23-2019, 12:41 PM
We're losing sight of the important question: with short rotations and deep benches, how many minutes would Michael Savarino have to play before folks accuse K of nepotism?

jimmymax
04-23-2019, 12:47 PM
[QUOTE=kcduke75;1158354]My next question is why do people use the word UTILIZE?

I hear you. There's a thread dedicated to such words.

jimmymax
04-23-2019, 12:49 PM
No worries. I hear Baker is going to red-shirt.

NSDukeFan
04-23-2019, 12:52 PM
This reminds me a little bit of when Michael Gbinije and Alex Murphy were freshmen and how excited I was that Duke had multiple multi-talented wings. I believe Rodney Hood arrived around that time and Olek Czyz was here around that time as well. I hope whoever gets left out of major minutes next year has the patience and work ethic to stick it out as they could be great upperclassmen contributors. I don’t begrudge departures as it is their choice, I just really like cheering for upperclassmen. (Hope to be cheering hard for you at Duke next year, Javin and Marquese.)

RPS
04-23-2019, 12:56 PM
I thought the thread title was an Andy Borowitz headline...

jimsumner
04-23-2019, 01:00 PM
This reminds me a little bit of when Michael Gbinije and Alex Murphy were freshmen and how excited I was that Duke had multiple multi-talented wings. I believe Rodney Hood arrived around that time and Olek Czyz was here around that time as well. I hope whoever gets left out of major minutes next year has the patience and work ethic to stick it out as they could be great upperclassmen contributors. I don’t begrudge departures as it is their choice, I just really like cheering for upperclassmen. (Hope to be cheering hard for you at Duke next year, Javin and Marquese.)

Czyz was gone long before Murphy, Gbinijie or Hood showed up. And Hood only showed up after Gbinijie transferred. They had no overlap at Duke.

ChillinDuke
04-23-2019, 01:06 PM
I really wish there was a video class on select DBR topics that we could post in threads like this. Almost like a pre-show to a Disney ride. So that before we begin discussion, everyone is reminded that there is an extensive backstory on the topic. Otherwise, we just devolve into re-teaching the same old data again and again.

I'm all for discussing interesting topics or a fresh take on an old topic. But questions like this and views like "deepest Duke team ever" are so well documented at this point, it just uses up bandwidth that could be better served.

I guess I should just ignore this thread. Sorry.

- Chillin

NSDukeFan
04-23-2019, 01:08 PM
Did we not just finish a season with a 9 player rotation? Some of that was due to injuries, but there were 9 guys that played 33+ games and at least 8.5 minutes. I don't expect that to be the norm, but this idea that Coach K is so rigid that he only plays 7 or 8 guys is silly. Hell, UVA only played 7 or 8 guys all year. Most every team plays somewhere between 7 and 9 players.

As I look at this roster - assuming Bolden and DeLaurier return - there are natural tiers that appear to me.

Tier 1: Definite Starters
Tre Jones, Wendell Moore, Matthew Hurt, and Vernon Carey, Jr.

Jones is an obvious starter and will get 35+ minutes a game. I think Moore and Hurt will get 30+ minutes a game as well as they are highly-rated 5-star prospects that play positions of need for Duke. Vernon Carey, Jr. is also an obvious starter as a low-post scorer and occasional jump shooter that will average something like 25-30 minutes a game due to foul trouble or conditioning.

Tier 2: Potential Starters
Jack White, Javin DeLaurier, Marques Bolden, Alex O'Connell, Cassius Stanley

After Tier 1, the most interesting question of the offseason will be about who fills that last starting spot. I think the clubhouse leader will be Jack White. This will be a controversial take on this board, no doubt. But he gives the team positional flexibility to switch on defense with Moore and Hurt. He is an excellent rebounder that can help Hurt and Carey on the glass. And he has the potential of being a good 3-point shooter. If White doesn't work out, I think Javin is the guy. He can switch onto most wings in college or play up. He provides shot blocking and can be a real glue guy alongside Carey or Hurt. After that, it's possible Bolden starts, but I think bench big playing 15-20 minutes a game is more likely. We could see AOC or Stanely also grab that 5th starting spot and I expect each to start at least 1 game this season. One or both could surprise with their development this offseason. O'Connell needs to improve his assertiveness and defensive awareness. We'll see what Stanley brings to the table.

Tier 3: Deep Bench
Joey Baker, Jordan Goldwire, Boogie Ellis, Justin Robinson

I waffled on where to put Baker. I think his best basketball is ahead of him. We might see some glimpses of it this next season. More likely, 2020-21 will start to show us the real Joey Buckets. We have seen Goldwire perform well in spots and I do expect to see him most games as relief for Jones during the first half or if the team wants to press. Unless and until he finds a reliable outside shot, though, I don't see him getting more than 5-10 minutes a game max. Ellis is another interesting option as he seems to have a needed skill - shooting - and at a position - guard - that Duke could use that skill. I have a hunch, though, that he will not see the floor much as a freshman. He could become a starting guard in time. Hopefully he surprises. And Robinson will be a 5th-year senior and could see some garbage time as a replacement for Hurt and White. I hope to see him play a lot as that means there will be many blowouts. Robinson will be the human victory cigar next season.

Tier 4: Walk-Ons
Mike Buckmire, Keenan Worthington, Michael Savarino

It's great to have you here, boys!

I agree that it is hard to predict who will break out to get more playing time, but in my mind there are three likely starters in Tre, Carney and Hurt. I assume you have seen Wendell play a lot more than I have , what makes you feel that he is guaranteed to start over Baker, Stanley, O’Connell and White? I would have put DesLaurier and Bolden near the top of that unordered list (4th and 5th on the roster) based on where I see them ranking in terms of next year’s players but am not sure if they will start with Hurt and Carney. I could see a situation where Carney, or Bolden, plays with Hurt and Javin in a big lineup.

CDu
04-23-2019, 01:12 PM
This reminds me a little bit of when Michael Gbinije and Alex Murphy were freshmen and how excited I was that Duke had multiple multi-talented wings. I believe Rodney Hood arrived around that time and Olek Czyz was here around that time as well. I hope whoever gets left out of major minutes next year has the patience and work ethic to stick it out as they could be great upperclassmen contributors. I don’t begrudge departures as it is their choice, I just really like cheering for upperclassmen. (Hope to be cheering hard for you at Duke next year, Javin and Marquese.)

You're off by a couple of years in either direction. Gbinije and Murphy came to Duke (Murphy "a year early") in the Summer/Fall of 2011. Czyz transferred out of Duke in Dec 2009. Hood arrived at Duke in the Summer/Fall of 2012 (after Gbinije had transferred), and didn't play until the 2013-14 season.

But the point is still valid that when you have a bunch of options it can be challenging to keep everyone content. We've actually been fairly fortunate in recent years in that a lot of our "next-tier" recruits have stayed even through limited minutes. Even a top-15 recruit like Bolden has stayed at least 3 years despite never quite earning a starting spot. But DeLaurier and O'Connell have done so as well. Not that we've had a perfect record (Jordan Tucker did transfer out almost immediately, and Jeter and Thornton were high-profile guys who left). But we've probably had pretty good retention considering the playing time challenges these kids face.

J4Kop99
04-23-2019, 01:16 PM
Slightly off-topic but still in line with the overall theme of the thread:

When does the transfer portal close? Are we still at risk of possibly losing someone to a transfer? This current discussion is pointing out how many similarly skilled guys we will have next year and I'm having trouble believing they will all actually be on the roster. Don't get me wrong-- I want them all to stay and hope some will stay multiple years.

There is so much ego in AAU/HS Basketball culture now that I worry some of our incoming freshmen or upperclassmen are going to be expecting more playing time than can reasonably be spread out.

MChambers
04-23-2019, 01:17 PM
I agree that it is hard to predict who will break out to get more playing time, but in my mind there are three likely starters in Tre, Carney and Hurt. I assume you have seen Wendell play a lot more than I have , what makes you feel that he is guaranteed to start over Baker, Stanley, O’Connell and White? I would have put DesLaurier and Bolden near the top of that unordered list (4th and 5th on the roster) based on where I see them ranking in terms of next year’s players but am not sure if they will start with Hurt and Carney. I could see a situation where Carney, or Bolden, plays with Hurt and Javin in a big lineup.

Art Carney?

CDu
04-23-2019, 01:21 PM
Art Carney?

Rodney Carney. But I think Rodney used up his eligibility already.

NSDukeFan
04-23-2019, 01:23 PM
Art Carney?

Oops. At least he hasn’t played for Duke yet, so I almost have an excuse for getting his name wrong?

NSDukeFan
04-23-2019, 01:26 PM
You're off by a couple of years in either direction. Gbinije and Murphy came to Duke (Murphy "a year early") in the Summer/Fall of 2011. Czyz transferred out of Duke in Dec 2009. Hood arrived at Duke in the Summer/Fall of 2012 (after Gbinije had transferred), and didn't play until the 2013-14 season.

But the point is still valid that when you have a bunch of options it can be challenging to keep everyone content. We've actually been fairly fortunate in recent years in that a lot of our "next-tier" recruits have stayed even through limited minutes. Even a top-15 recruit like Bolden has stayed at least 3 years despite never quite earning a starting spot. But DeLaurier and O'Connell have done so as well. Not that we've had a perfect record (Jordan Tucker did transfer out almost immediately, and Jeter and Thornton were high-profile guys who left). But we've probably had pretty good retention considering the playing time challenges these kids face.

Thanks for the corrections, I figured my memory was off a bit.

gotoguy
04-23-2019, 01:56 PM
There is an article from a local Raleigh news source/publication not the N&O which was published after the Blue Devil win in Chapel Hill in 2017 titled "Five Guys" (one of the best articles ever written about the Devils and Coach K , IMHO) where the writer/author succinctly stated why coach K has a short bench. Time permitting later tonight I will track it down and post it. It was linked from comments on the post game thread of that amazing win.

I think germane to the minutes conversation would be how Coach K divied out the minutes for the Olympic USA basketball team where top to bottom the talent level was more even. Perhaps someone could dedicate a few minutes of research to that question.

budwom
04-23-2019, 02:09 PM
our bench will be utilized, of that I have no doubt. The question is, to what extent is it utilized? I don't have the courage to predict anything more than our usually 7.5 man group which can shrink to 6.5 as the games intensify...

Kedsy
04-23-2019, 02:34 PM
Having a 9 player rotation doesn’t have to mean 9 guys play in every game. It could mean 5 guys play in every game and then 4 guys are in a group that could each step up and play 10-20 minutes in a given game, but it’s a different guy each game. So we’re playing 6-7 guys each game, out of a 9 man rotation.

I think that’s the pattern we saw last season. Javin and Bolden basically split minutes at the 5, but took turns starting. Other than the four freshmen we started the year with Jack as our 6th man playing 30+ minutes, then when he fell off we saw Goldwire get more minutes. In a couple games Alex stepped up. It just depends on the matchup and who is playing well in that game.

Well, I did say it depends on your definition of "rotation," right in the post you quoted. For me, the word "rotation" suggests being regularly substituted into most or all games. If someone plays 20 minutes in one game and then doesn't play for three, they may have been in the rotation for the one game, but not overall.

Using overall mpg over the course of the entire season does not show "in the rotation." CDu's post about injuries illustrates that very well. A guy who comes in and plays when a starter gets injured but doesn't play otherwise cannot (IMO) be fairly characterized as being in the rotation (although of course they were in the rotation while the starter was injured).

Similarly, guys who play 15 minutes in blowouts but hardly play at all in competitive games cannot (again IMO) be fairly characterized as being in the rotation.

And guys who play situationally, dependent on a particular matchup (like the guy who plays 20 minutes in one game and then DNP-CD the next three) are not (by my definition) in the overall rotation, because they don't regularly substitute into most games.

Finally, guys who play a lot early in the season but almost not at all at the end were possibly in the rotation in November but fell out of it (and thus were no longer in the rotation) come February. Really, it could be argued that Coach K's early season rotation and his "true" rotation are two different things. An offset of that idea would be when he replaces one guy in the rotation with another. For example, in 2009, Greg Paulus started the year in the rotation and played heavy minutes, while Elliot Williams hardly played (at least in early ACC games). At some point, Williams was inserted into the rotation, and Paulus was removed from it. For the season, both guys played 34 or more games, and both averaged 16+ mpg. That season, seven other Duke players averaged 11+ mpg, so does that mean we played a 9-man rotation (counting both Paulus and Williams)? I say no, we played an 8-man rotation, with Paulus starting as one of the eight but replaced by Williams as one of the eight toward the end (I would even argue that we possibly only played a 7-man rotation that season, as in our 14 games after the first week of February, Brian Zoubek played double-figure minutes in only three of them, but that's neither here nor there for the purposes of this paragraph).

Almost all Duke recruited scholarship players are capable of coming in and contributing. And almost all Duke recruited scholarship players come in and contribute at least occasionally in every season. But there's a difference between being "in the rotation" and being "on the team." YMMV and all that, but we didn't play a 9-man rotation this season (or any season under Coach K) by any reasonable definition of "rotation."

HereBeforeCoachK
04-23-2019, 02:40 PM
Well, I did say it depends on your definition of "rotation," right in the post you quoted. For me, the word "rotation" suggests being regularly substituted into most or all games. If someone plays 20 minutes in one game and then doesn't play for three, they may have been in the rotation for the one game, but not overall."

Yeah, depends on the meaning of rotation, but I understand the term "rotation" to mean those who will play every game under normal circumstances.

Truth&Justise
04-23-2019, 02:40 PM
I think germane to the minutes conversation would be how Coach K divied out the minutes for the Olympic USA basketball team where top to bottom the talent level was more even. Perhaps someone could dedicate a few minutes of research to that question.

Good question!

Basketball-reference doesn't have minutes played for 2008, but they do for 2012. Remember, like college these are 40 minute games. In the 2012 Olympics, the United States had three games where the outcome was (somewhat) in doubt in the second half: Group play against Lithuania (https://www.basketball-reference.com/olympics/games/2012-08-04-USA-LTU), semi-final against Argentina (https://www.basketball-reference.com/olympics/games/2012-08-10-USA-ARG), and the final against Spain (https://www.basketball-reference.com/olympics/games/2012-08-12-USA-ESP/).

In those games, the minutes were:




v. Lithuania
v. Argentina
v. Spain
Average


LeBron James
35
29
30
31.3


Kevin Durant
28
27
38
31


Chris Paul
28
26
33
29


Carmelo Anthony
24
22
21
22.3


Kobe Bryant
20
19
27
22


Deron Williams
23
20
10
17.6


Kevin Love
12
16
19
15.6


Russell Westbrook
14
9
9
10.6


Tyson Chandler
8
12
9
9.6


Andre Iguodala
2
11
3
5.3


James Harden
4
5
1
3.3


Anthony Davis
0
4
1
1.6



Some conclusions:

11th/12th guys, even when they are (young) James Harden and Anthony Davis, won't get minutes in competitive games.
It's not a surprise to see the rotation tighening as the tournament went on. Against Spain Durant played 38 and Paul 33, while LeBron would have played more than 30 if he wasn't in foul trouble.
Tyson Chandler started all three games, but would rarely get big minutes.

Not sure if there are big conclusions to draw, other than "holy cow, what a talented roster!"

I haven't looked at 2016 yet, but I know they had more close games than 2012.

DavidBenAkiva
04-23-2019, 03:14 PM
10 is arbitrary? But 8.5 isn't arbitrary at all, got it.

In any event, here's a list of our end-of-season close games (under 20 points) and how many guys played 8.5+ minutes in those games:

UNC (last regular season game) -- 6 guys with 10+ minutes;
Syracuse (ACCT) -- 8 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UNC (ACCT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
FSU (ACCT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
UCF (NCAAT) -- 7 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
VaTech (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes;
MSU (NCAAT) -- 6 guys with 8.5+ minutes.

Still doesn't at all look like a 9-player rotation.

Being in the rotation doesn't mean you play every game or as much in every matchup. Perhaps that's a difference in the concept that you and I have.

To address your first question, though, I chose 8.5 minutes as that's how many minutes Jordan Goldwire averaged in 2018-19. He was on the low end of what I think of as players that were in the rotation. Everyone above him averaged more minutes per game.

bullettoothtony
04-23-2019, 03:16 PM
There is an article from a local Raleigh news source/publication not the N&O which was published after the Blue Devil win in Chapel Hill in 2017 titled "Five Guys" (one of the best articles ever written about the Devils and Coach K , IMHO) where the writer/author succinctly stated why coach K has a short bench. Time permitting later tonight I will track it down and post it. It was linked from comments on the post game thread of that amazing win.

I think germane to the minutes conversation would be how Coach K divied out the minutes for the Olympic USA basketball team where top to bottom the talent level was more even. Perhaps someone could dedicate a few minutes of research to that question.


Thank you for pointing this out... I certainly would like to read it if you have time to dig it up.

Matches
04-23-2019, 03:27 PM
Being in the rotation doesn't mean you play every game or as much in every matchup. Perhaps that's a difference in the concept that you and I have.

To address your first question, though, I chose 8.5 minutes as that's how many minutes Jordan Goldwire averaged in 2018-19. He was on the low end of what I think of as players that were in the rotation. Everyone above him averaged more minutes per game.

You are of course free to define rotation however you choose. For the sake of clarity, Goldwire averaged 8.5 minutes in the games he played. He drew 3 DNP-CDs during the season. His actual per-game average was less than 8 MPG, and that includes blowouts. He played in 15 ACC games (not counting the tournament), and averaged 5.33 MPG. (His 3 DNP-CDs were all against ACC teams.) Jordan obviously played a good bit more in the ACC Tournament and early in the NCAA Tournament, in part because of injuries to Bolden and White.

He was clearly in the rotation by any reasonable definition during the ACCT and early in the NCAAs, but at least by my definition, not at any other point during the season.

Tripping William
04-23-2019, 03:29 PM
There is an article from a local Raleigh news source/publication not the N&O which was published after the Blue Devil win in Chapel Hill in 2017 titled "Five Guys" (one of the best articles ever written about the Devils and Coach K , IMHO) where the writer/author succinctly stated why coach K has a short bench. Time permitting later tonight I will track it down and post it. It was linked from comments on the post game thread of that amazing win.

I think germane to the minutes conversation would be how Coach K divied out the minutes for the Olympic USA basketball team where top to bottom the talent level was more even. Perhaps someone could dedicate a few minutes of research to that question.

Duke lost, 90-83, in Chapel Hill in 2017.

Truth&Justise
04-23-2019, 04:01 PM
There is an article from a local Raleigh news source/publication not the N&O which was published after the Blue Devil win in Chapel Hill in 2017 titled "Five Guys" (one of the best articles ever written about the Devils and Coach K , IMHO) where the writer/author succinctly stated why coach K has a short bench. Time permitting later tonight I will track it down and post it. It was linked from comments on the post game thread of that amazing win.

I think germane to the minutes conversation would be how Coach K divied out the minutes for the Olympic USA basketball team where top to bottom the talent level was more even. Perhaps someone could dedicate a few minutes of research to that question.


Duke lost, 90-83, in Chapel Hill in 2017.

Guessing gotoguy meant 2016, when Duke won in Chapel Hill while basically playing just five guys (the name of the article) after Matt Jones hurt his ankle.

Scorp4me
04-23-2019, 04:26 PM
First off no, we will go 7 or 8 deep.

Aa for the bolded, I wonder if a day will ever come when people stop saying this. It is said almost every year.

But here's the thing. Usually there is quite a drop off. I mean let's face it, a tired Zion or RJ was better than most sitting on our bench, the opponent's bench, or even the opponent's starters. Next year that just doesn't seem to be the case. I have no problem playing the best players a lot, fouls and injuries are much more a concern than fatique. But when the difference isn't that much I don't think that matters as much. Next year the difference between say 1 and 10 might be a lot, but 4 or 5 and 10...maybe not so much. That and the fact that we seem to be a much more put together albeit less talented squad makes me much more optomistic for next year than I thought I was going to be.

House P
04-23-2019, 04:41 PM
For me, the word "rotation" suggests being regularly substituted into most or all games.

An offset of that idea would be when he replaces one guy in the rotation with another. For example, in 2009, Greg Paulus started the year in the rotation and played heavy minutes, while Elliot Williams hardly played (at least in early ACC games). At some point, Williams was inserted into the rotation, and Paulus was removed from it. For the season, both guys played 34 or more games, and both averaged 16+ mpg. That season, seven other Duke players averaged 11+ mpg, so does that mean we played a 9-man rotation (counting both Paulus and Williams)? I say no, we played an 8-man rotation, with Paulus starting as one of the eight but replaced by Williams as one of the eight toward the end .

Great points about players moving in and out of "the rotation" throughout the season.

This past season, by almost any definition of "the rotation", Duke didn't play a 9-man rotation in close, competitive games. Even if you consider 5 minutes to be "in the rotation", there were only 2 "close" games (out of 20 total games decided by 15 points or fewer) where you might be able to say that Duke had a 9-man "rotation" (vs Louisville when the 9th man played 6 minutes and vs Ga Tech when the 9th man played 5 minutes).

That being said, due to injuries and players moving in and out of "the rotation" throughout the season, there were 9 different players who spent much of the season "in the rotation". If you consider 5 min as a cutoff for "in the rotation", Alex was "in the rotation" for 12 of Duke's 20 close games and Jordan was "in the rotation" for 10 of Duke's close games. Heck, by this measure, even Vrank was "in the rotation" for 2 close games.

So, while Duke almost never played a 9 man rotation in close games, you could say that there were 9 men who were "in the rotation" for much of the year.


but we didn't play a 9-man rotation this season (or any season under Coach K) by any reasonable definition of "rotation."

The closest Coach K team has come to playing a 9 man rotation is probably 1997. That year, Coach K played at least 9 guys in every game and the 9th man played at least 4 minutes in 17 of 21 "close games".

2008 is a more recent example where Coach K went fairly deep into the bench for at least a few minutes in nearly every game.

Here is a summary of how often the 8th, 9th and 10th men played those years in "close games" (defined as games decided by 15 points or less).



1997
8th man
9th man
10th man


Total "Close games" for Duke
21
21
21


- "Close games" with at least 1 min
21
21
13


- "Close games" with least 4 min
21
17
6


- "Close games" with least 8 min
12
8
0


- "Close games" with least 10 min
11
4
0






2008
8th man
9th man
10th man


Total "Close games" for Duke
22
22
22


- "Close games" with least 1 min
22
20
15


- "Close games" with least 4 min
22
16
6


- "Close games" with least 8 min
18
7
0


- "Close games" with least 10 min
12
3
0



FWIW, in 1997, the 8th man averaged 9.4 mpg and the 9th man averaged 6.2 mpg in close games. Most folks would probably call that an 8.5 man rotation.

Truth&Justise
04-23-2019, 05:33 PM
Great points about players moving in and out of "the rotation" throughout the season.

This past season, by almost any definition of "the rotation", Duke didn't play a 9-man rotation in close, competitive games. Even if you consider 5 minutes to be "in the rotation", there were only 2 "close" games (out of 20 total games decided by 15 points or fewer) where you might be able to say that Duke had a 9-man "rotation" (vs Louisville when the 9th man played 6 minutes and vs Ga Tech when the 9th man played 5 minutes).

That being said, due to injuries and players moving in and out of "the rotation" throughout the season, there were 9 different players who spent much of the season "in the rotation". If you consider 5 min as a cutoff for "in the rotation", Alex was "in the rotation" for 12 of Duke's 20 close games and Jordan was "in the rotation" for 10 of Duke's close games. Heck, by this measure, even Vrank was "in the rotation" for 2 close games.

So, while Duke almost never played a 9 man rotation in close games, you could say that there were 9 men who were "in the rotation" for much of the year.



The closest Coach K team has come to playing a 9 man rotation is probably 1997. That year, Coach K played at least 9 guys in every game and the 9th man played at least 4 minutes in 17 of 21 "close games".

2008 is a more recent example where Coach K went fairly deep into the bench for at least a few minutes in nearly every game.

Here is a summary of how often the 8th, 9th and 10th men played those years in "close games" (defined as games decided by 15 points or less).



1997
8th man
9th man
10th man


Total "Close games" for Duke
21
21
21


- "Close games" with at least 1 min
21
21
13


- "Close games" with least 4 min
21
17
6


- "Close games" with least 8 min
12
8
0


- "Close games" with least 10 min
11
4
0






2008
8th man
9th man
10th man


Total "Close games" for Duke
22
22
22


- "Close games" with least 1 min
22
20
15


- "Close games" with least 4 min
22
16
6


- "Close games" with least 8 min
18
7
0


- "Close games" with least 10 min
12
3
0



FWIW, in 1997, the 8th man averaged 9.4 mpg and the 9th man averaged 6.2 mpg in close games. Most folks would probably call that an 8.5 man rotation.

Thanks, this is great analysis. Does anyone have similar numbers for 2014? Off the top of my head I remember that team having more deep-bench minutes than most, but I trust the stats over my memory.

Fish80
04-23-2019, 08:45 PM
9 > 10
What? That’s weird, I know. I’ll explain.
9 guys average more than 10 minutes.
Later I will tell you 7 of the 9.

MCFinARL
04-23-2019, 09:04 PM
Art Carney?

You must spend some comments around, etc. etc.

This made me laugh! Thanks.

UrinalCake
04-23-2019, 09:59 PM
guys who play situationally, dependent on a particular matchup (like the guy who plays 20 minutes in one game and then DNP-CD the next three) are not (by my definition) in the overall rotation, because they don't regularly substitute into most games.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on this point. Alex got more minutes when we played against zone defenses, and barely played at all against big, physical teams. I would still consider him to be in the rotation. Jack got more minutes in games where it made sense to go small and have Zion play the 5. Barely played against MSU when we needed another big in there for rebounding.

I don’t see the team as being a static thing that begins and ends the same way. I think there are ebbs and flows to the season, and the coaches and players are constantly adapting and adjusting. Lineup changes and minutes distributions are a part of that. And yes, working around injuries is part of this as well. I understand your point that in any given game we only play 6 or maybe 7 guys, but if it’s a different set of guys each game then we’re still using our bench because lots of players are contributing.

House P
04-23-2019, 10:06 PM
Thanks, this is great analysis. Does anyone have similar numbers for 2014? Off the top of my head I remember that team having more deep-bench minutes than most, but I trust the stats over my memory.

Your memory is correct. While Coach K didn't go to 9 guys for "extended minutes" as often in 2014 as he did in 2008 or 1997, he did play 9 guys at least 1 minute in 17 of 20 close games that year.



2014
8th man
9th man
10th man


Total "Close games" for Duke
20
20
20


- "Close games" with least 1 min
20
17
9


- "Close games" with least 4 min
20
7
1


- "Close games" with least 8 min
14
2
0


- "Close games" with least 10 min
9
1
0




2014 is also a good example of a team that had 10 guys who were "in the rotation" at some point in the year without every really having a 10 man rotation. The chart below shows the the how relative rank in minutes played for Josh Hairston, Marshall Plumlee, and Matt Jones kept changing over the course of the season. These 3 guys finished the season ranked 8th-10th in minutes played, but it was never really clear from game to game who was the 8th man, 9th man, and 10th man on the depth chart.

9347

One thing that stands out to me is that, over the final 6 games of the season, the "8th man" was never the same for 2 games in a row (and all three of these guys had at least one game in the final six where they were at the "bottom" of the depth chart). To me, this shows that Coach K never really settled on a rotation, even by the end of the season.

Kedsy
04-24-2019, 12:34 PM
I understand your point that in any given game we only play 6 or maybe 7 guys, but if it’s a different set of guys each game then we’re still using our bench because lots of players are contributing.

I think your statement above may illustrate the apparent disconnect. "Using our bench"/"lots of players contributing" is (at least to me) very different from "in the rotation."

Because when Coach K talks about having a strong bench, he appears to mean having players who could play if needed, not necessarily having players who will play. For example, in 2013, freshman Amile Jefferson hardly played. Even in a game like Davidson he only played 3 minutes. But when Ryan Kelly got hurt, Amile stepped in, started seven games and played big minutes (seven games with 20+ minutes). Then when Kelly came back from his injury, Amile was relegated to the bench again. Except against Creighton, when our primary bigs all got into foul trouble and Amile came in and played 11 important minutes in a NCAA tournament game. Overall, Amile played over 400 minutes in 2012-13. He definitely contributed to the Duke team that season. But was he in the rotation? I say no.

This disconnect is especially meaningful here because threads like this start out asking who will play regular minutes and then inevitably devolve into arguments about what rotation means. Next season, if Javin and Marques both return we'll have 12 guys who all presumably think they're going to regularly play in all games. But they won't. If a guy like Joey Baker or Boogie Ellis or Cassius Stanley play more than token minutes only in blowouts or if someone gets injured do you think they'll feel like they're "part of the rotation"? Part of the team, sure, but rotation? If a guy like Alex O'Connell plays 20 minutes against Syracuse but then gets three consecutive DNP-CDs, you think he'll feel like he's "part of the rotation"?

In a world where players who play go pro and players who don't transfer, it's a very delicate balance for a coach who thinks playing 6 or 7 guys is the best way to win close games. It will be interesting to see how next season goes.

Acymetric
04-24-2019, 01:29 PM
I can't believe we utilized the thread title change option here...;)

UrinalCake
04-24-2019, 01:29 PM
^ when we talk about depth/bench usage, the issues that we're concerned about (imo) are:

- will starters get fatigued during the game because they have to play so many minutes?
- will starters get worn down at the end of the season as a cumulative effect of playing so many total minutes?
- do we have positional flexibility to play lots of different styles and match up against different types of opponents?
- if a player gets injured, is there another player that can step up without a big drop off in production?
- will players transfer because they are not getting enough minutes?
- somewhat related to the above, will players stay "happy" and engaged, and give forth maximum effort because their hard work is being rewarded with playing time?
- will players improve and develop over the course of the season as a result of getting playing time? Or will they be stunted because they are stuck on the bench?

In the scenario that I am describing - having 4 or 5 core players and then a group of 3-4 players who play more or less each game, resulting in a different 6 or 7 players every game - issues #1 and #2 are not addressed, but the other issues are. I think this is a reasonable way to manage a deep roster, and not that different from how other teams do it.

soflabluedevil
04-24-2019, 01:55 PM
^ when we talk about depth/bench usage, the issues that we're concerned about (imo) are:

- will starters get fatigued during the game because they have to play so many minutes?
- will starters get worn down at the end of the season as a cumulative effect of playing so many total minutes?
- do we have positional flexibility to play lots of different styles and match up against different types of opponents?
- if a player gets injured, is there another player that can step up without a big drop off in production?
- will players transfer because they are not getting enough minutes?
- somewhat related to the above, will players stay "happy" and engaged, and give forth maximum effort because their hard work is being rewarded with playing time?
- will players improve and develop over the course of the season as a result of getting playing time? Or will they be stunted because they are stuck on the bench?

In the scenario that I am describing - having 4 or 5 core players and then a group of 3-4 players who play more or less each game, resulting in a different 6 or 7 players every game - issues #1 and #2 are not addressed, but the other issues are. I think this is a reasonable way to manage a deep roster, and not that different from how other teams do it.

1-yes
2-yes
3-yes
4-not without having minutes to develop
5-yes
6-some, not all
7-they will not get enough minutes to develop so they will be stunted

Kedsy
04-24-2019, 02:06 PM
1-yes
2-yes
3-yes
4-not without having minutes to develop
5-yes
6-some, not all
7-they will not get enough minutes to develop so they will be stunted

I completely disagree with almost all of your answers.

Channing
04-24-2019, 02:09 PM
Can someone please explain why everyone is so sure that Joey Baker is going to only see spot minutes? If he didn't reclassify he would be our second highest recruit coming in (assuming he maintained his #15 ranking). He would have been a sure fire McD AA and, presumably, a year in Duke's system only made him better than playing a year in high school. He is 18 and doesn't turn 19 until September (if a quick Google search is to be believed). Putting him behind even Moore seems like an enthrallment with the unknown. Is the reasoning that since he didn't get off the bench last year he won't get off the bench next year? If K kept his redshirt would people have a different impression of his abilities?

NSDukeFan
04-24-2019, 02:31 PM
Can someone please explain why everyone is so sure that Joey Baker is going to only see spot minutes? If he didn't reclassify he would be our second highest recruit coming in (assuming he maintained his #15 ranking). He would have been a sure fire McD AA and, presumably, a year in Duke's system only made him better than playing a year in high school. He is 18 and doesn't turn 19 until September (if a quick Google search is to be believed). Putting him behind even Moore seems like an enthrallment with the unknown. Is the reasoning that since he didn't get off the bench last year he won't get off the bench next year? If K kept his redshirt would people have a different impression of his abilities?

I have no idea how much Baker will play next year (I hope a significant amount), but after Alex Murphy, Andre Dawkins and Derryck Thornton (spelling?) I am not as confident in the player will get much better at Duke than they would have in high school, even though I feel this should be true.

CajunDevil
04-24-2019, 03:02 PM
Can someone please explain why everyone is so sure that Joey Baker is going to only see spot minutes? If he didn't reclassify he would be our second highest recruit coming in (assuming he maintained his #15 ranking). He would have been a sure fire McD AA and, presumably, a year in Duke's system only made him better than playing a year in high school. He is 18 and doesn't turn 19 until September (if a quick Google search is to be believed). Putting him behind even Moore seems like an enthrallment with the unknown. Is the reasoning that since he didn't get off the bench last year he won't get off the bench next year? If K kept his redshirt would people have a different impression of his abilities?

Totally agree. I have plugged Baker into my starting lineup with Moore, AOC or Stanley at the 2, Tre, Hurt, and Carey. Baker played an entire year against RJ and/or Cam in practice. I can't imagine he won't be better at the wing then any incoming recruit as a result of that experience.

Kedsy
04-24-2019, 03:11 PM
Can someone please explain why everyone is so sure that Joey Baker is going to only see spot minutes? If he didn't reclassify he would be our second highest recruit coming in (assuming he maintained his #15 ranking). He would have been a sure fire McD AA and, presumably, a year in Duke's system only made him better than playing a year in high school. He is 18 and doesn't turn 19 until September (if a quick Google search is to be believed). Putting him behind even Moore seems like an enthrallment with the unknown. Is the reasoning that since he didn't get off the bench last year he won't get off the bench next year? If K kept his redshirt would people have a different impression of his abilities?

On the one hand, I don't think everyone is so sure. I'm certainly not -- I think Joey has as good a chance as any of our other wings to earn minutes. On the other hand, I think that #15 ranking (which I think was ESPN) was probably soft. Presumably he got that ranking in the summer before his junior year, and when you drop from #15 to #41 there could be lots of reasons besides his switching classes. My guess is he would have slipped significantly in the final rankings had he remained in the 2019 class. We shouldn't look at him like a top 15 recruit.

That said, I agree with you that a lot of people are selling Joey short based on 18 mostly garbage-time minutes. In the five exhibition games in which he played, he looked pretty good, scoring 15.4 pts per 40 minutes, 6.2 rebounds per 40, 2.5 assists per 40, and 1.2 steals per 40, with an eFG% of 58.3% (69.4% true shooting %; 41.7% on threes; 100% on FTs (4 attempts)). Yeah, that was against substandard competition, but it was probably better than high school competition. He's 6'8" and can shoot, appears to be pretty good at offensive rebounding, and while it's difficult to say how good he is on defense, he didn't look lost on D either.

At this moment, we shouldn't be confident in the roles of anybody on Duke's team other than Tre, Vernon, and Matthew.

brlftz
04-24-2019, 03:38 PM
I can't believe we utilized the thread title change option here...;)

Whoever did that is my hero. I hate that word so much

Troublemaker
04-24-2019, 04:52 PM
Can someone please explain why everyone is so sure that Joey Baker is going to only see spot minutes? If he didn't reclassify he would be our second highest recruit coming in (assuming he maintained his #15 ranking). He would have been a sure fire McD AA and, presumably, a year in Duke's system only made him better than playing a year in high school. He is 18 and doesn't turn 19 until September (if a quick Google search is to be believed). Putting him behind even Moore seems like an enthrallment with the unknown. Is the reasoning that since he didn't get off the bench last year he won't get off the bench next year? If K kept his redshirt would people have a different impression of his abilities?

That's a big assumption, though. (Also, that would've only made him our third highest-ranked recruit, behind Carey and Hurt). 2018 and 2019 are considered to be similar in quality (both very weak), so I can't imagine the class translation would be so dramatic; I think he would've dropped in the 2019 rankings. That said, I wouldn't be shocked if he beat out AOC, Boogie, and Cassius for a starting spot. Duke would have huge wings again with him and Wendell starting out there.

lotusland
04-24-2019, 05:53 PM
Can someone please explain why everyone is so sure that Joey Baker is going to only see spot minutes? If he didn't reclassify he would be our second highest recruit coming in (assuming he maintained his #15 ranking). He would have been a sure fire McD AA and, presumably, a year in Duke's system only made him better than playing a year in high school. He is 18 and doesn't turn 19 until September (if a quick Google search is to be believed). Putting him behind even Moore seems like an enthrallment with the unknown. Is the reasoning that since he didn't get off the bench last year he won't get off the bench next year? If K kept his redshirt would people have a different impression of his abilities?

It’s because he played this year but didn’t set the world on fire. Recruits who’ve never played college ball are always assumed to be awesome until
they play.

Troublemaker
04-24-2019, 06:10 PM
It’s because he played this year but didn’t set the world on fire. Recruits who’ve never played college ball are always assumed to be awesome until
they play.

I'm not sure this really describes the board well. I think we have appropriate skepticism of freshmen. Maybe too much at times, actually, when talking about the top-10 recruits since they usually turn out to be good players.

CDu
04-24-2019, 06:48 PM
I'm not sure this really describes the board well. I think we have appropriate skepticism of freshmen. Maybe too much at times, actually, when talking about the top-10 recruits since they usually turn out to be good players.

Yeah, I think we have a mix of all sorts:
- some overvalue returning role players and undervalue recruits
- some overvalue recruits and undervalue returning players
- some have a pretty good understanding of which recruits are day-one starters and which recruits are coin flips
- some overvalue every Duke player
- some undervalue Duke players relative to other programs