AOC vs Cassius vs Boogie, who do you think gets the last starting spot?

[proelitedota]

The 2 position is the biggest unknown. We have no incoming recruits or returning players that seem to be the sure-fire lock down for the spot.

Outlier scenario is that Jack starts, shifting Wendell down to the 2. This is not optimal due to the fact that Wendell and Jack are more athletically suited to the 3 and 4 spot respectively.

So who do you think / hope starts at the 2 next season?

IMO since we should have enough shooting already from Carey, Hurt, and Tre, I am thinking the best defender of the three gets the start. AOC with an extra summer of strength training seems to be the best case scenario, but Cassius has the athleticism and the reputation of a defender.

[907bluedevils]

There could be an argument made to start Baker here also.

[ChillinDuke]

The 2 position is the biggest unknown. We have no incoming recruits or returning players that seem to be the sure-fire lock down for the spot.

Outlier scenario is that Jack starts, shifting Wendell down to the 2. This is not optimal due to the fact that Wendell and Jack are more athletically suited to the 3 and 4 spot respectively.

So who do you think / hope starts at the 2 next season?

IMO since we should have enough shooting already from Carey, Hurt, and Tre, I am thinking the best defender of the three gets the start. AOC with an extra summer of strength training seems to be the best case scenario, but Cassius has the athleticism and the reputation of a defender.

Great question.

I hope AOC starts because I am rooting for a major breakout, knockdown shooting (~40%), and more upperclassmen leadership.

I think Boogie will start because I'm not confident in AOC actually taking the opportunity mainly because he didn't take the opportunity this season when we sorely needed a shooter to step up basically all year long.

I think a darkhorse starting lineup involves a Tre+JG backcourt anchoring the defense around three other freshmen. Although, I admit this would require a fairly significant improvement in JG's long range shot.

But I'll admit I haven't thought very much about lineups for next year yet, given the recent moving pieces.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

This would be better in poll format, and in a more generalized form: "Whom will be the 5 starters?" Because, actually, people aren't going to even agree on the other 4 starters. And the poll shouldn't be started until after we know about Javin and Marques. I'll probably do it then.

Anyway, to the question posed, my guess is Cassius beats out AOC and Boogie. Not something I'm real confident in, but forced to choose between those three and only those three, that's what I'd guess.

[kAzE]

It's also possible that Wendell Moore could be the starting 2 guard, meaning someone like Jack White or Joey Baker could start at the 3.

[UrinalCake]

I would suppose it is Alex’s spot to lose until the freshmen arrive and start practicing. I also think Ellis may play some at point. Definitely a good problem to have!

[cato]

The 2 position is the biggest unknown. We have no incoming recruits or returning players that seem to be the sure-fire lock down for the spot.

Outlier scenario is that Jack starts, shifting Wendell down to the 2. This is not optimal due to the fact that Wendell and Jack are more athletically suited to the 3 and 4 spot respectively.

So who do you think / hope starts at the 2 next season?

IMO since we should have enough shooting already from Carey, Hurt, and Tre, I am thinking the best defender of the three gets the start. AOC with an extra summer of strength training seems to be the best case scenario, but Cassius has the athleticism and the reputation of a defender.

I think K will play whoever can hit a forking shot.

[ChillinDuke]

It's also possible that Wendell Moore could be the starting 2 guard.

Yeah, if nothing else, this question really gets a Duke fan to realize how versatile and deep this team might be.

- Chillin

[kAzE]

So, it's probably safe to assume that the title is referring to the 4 relatively safe starters being Vernon Carey, Matthew Hurt, Wendell Moore, and Tre Jones.

The 5th spot as of right now is AOC's job to lose, but going by the little information we have, I'd lean slightly towards Cassius Stanley. I'm not sure he's a very good shooter, but going by the scouting reports, he plays really hard and is extremely athletic, so I would expect him to be pretty good defensively, at least 1 on 1. He also gives the team a boost in athleticism, which ought to help us get some easy points in transition.

I like the trio of Tre Jones, Wendell Moore and Cassius Stanley on the perimeter defensively. Those guys should be pretty solid at containing opposing guards.

[bullettoothtony]

Hard to say. Hearing about how good a scorer and shooter Boogie is makes me think it'll be him but at this point I just don't know.

[jipops]

There could be an argument made to start Baker here also.

Based on his one made 3?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Based on his one made 3?

Well that's one more than a couple of guys in this conversation....

[Cheese]

Based on his one made 3?

Baker was ranked ahead of Moore, Stanley, and Ellis before he reclassified to the class of 2018. (The Chronicle notes he was 13th before the reclassification: https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2018/11/duke-mens-basketball-freshman-joey-baker-a-case-study-in-reclassification.) It’s hard to imagine he got worse practicing with Duke this season. Obviously recruiting isn’t precise, but we shouldn’t assume the new guys are better than the old guys, just yet.

[ice-9]

Minutes are going to be hard to predict next season, as only Carey has the kind of rank that implies a sure-fire starter. And even then we may have two seniors he would have to compete with.

The only given is Tre. I’d argue Hurt is a likely starter given he is unique as a shooting big who can defend. And let’s say Carey slides in there at the 5, with Bolden and Javier backing him if they return.

That leaves AOC, White, Goldwire, Baker, Moore, Ellis and Cassius for two spots. None of the freshmen listed in the previous sentence have the kind of ranking (and thus implied ability) to ensure a starting spot preseason, so it’s going to be hard to predict who gets it and it’ll come down to practice and fit.

If I had to guess I’d say Baker and AOC will start. The experience means our perimeter will already know our defensive schemes. Ellis will be the first off the bench to provide instant offense. Moore and Cassius get backup minutes. Jack and Goldwire won’t play much at all.

[ice-9]

Correction - Jack will get minutes backing Hurt at the 4. So...

Tre
AOC
Baker
Hurt
Carey

And then

Ellis
Cassius
Moore
White
Bolden / Javier

Finally the season we go deep?? 🤣

I wonder if we’ve been too spoiled by recent freshmen making a huge impact. Cassius, Moore and Ellis aren’t likely to be like Zion, Tatum or Jabari. They may not be OADs and may not even play all that much this season.

[mattman91]

Yeah, if nothing else, this question really gets a Duke fan to realize how versatile and deep this team might be.

- Chillin

Yep. Might go from a 7 man rotation to a 7.5 man rotation...if we are lucky.

[UrinalCake]

Breaking it down by position, I think the depth chart will look like

PG: Tre, Ellis
SG: O'Connell, Ellis, Stanley
SF: Moore, Stanley, White
PF: Hurt, Delaurier, White
C: Bolden, Carey

I think that Baker and Goldwire are out of the rotation, no way we play more than 10. If Bolden or Javin leave then White would be the biggest beneficiary and we'd see some small lineups. If they both go, then yikes we better hope Hurt is ready to bang inside.

[UrinalCake]

Cassius, Moore and Ellis aren’t likely to be like Zion, Tatum or Jabari. They may not be OADs and may not even play all that much this season.

Totally agree. There's a big dropoff between top-5 and top-30 when it comes to ability to produce right away. Those three are ranked in the 20's and 30's, which puts them more in line with guys like Grayson, Delaurier, Kennard, or Matt Jones. They'll have moments where they look great, but they're not going to have overwhelming natural ability that allows them to dominate from day one.

[MrPoon]

I think Baker has a role to play next year. Not to rekindle the argument but they don’t burn the redshirt unless his performance in practice implied he could contribute. It didn’t work out but I wouldn’t be stunned if he passes AOC at some point. Shooting and D will really dictate.
Stanley being 20 may help him to acclimate.

[scottdude8]

I’m not sure who it’ll be, but I’d bet that the person starting at the 2 to start the season won’t be the same at the end. Just a hunch. This tram has a lot of pieces that could/should develop throughout the season.

[AtlDuke72]

So, it's probably safe to assume that the title is referring to the 4 relatively safe starters being Vernon Carey, Matthew Hurt, Wendell Moore, and Tre Jones.

The 5th spot as of right now is AOC's job to lose, but going by the little information we have, I'd lean slightly towards Cassius Stanley. I'm not sure he's a very good shooter, but going by the scouting reports, he plays really hard and is extremely athletic, so I would expect him to be pretty good defensively, at least 1 on 1. He also gives the team a boost in athleticism, which ought to help us get some easy points in transition.

I like the trio of Tre Jones, Wendell Moore and Cassius Stanley on the perimeter defensively. Those guys should be pretty solid at containing opposing guards.

I think the fifth starter will be Ellis or Stanley. I don’t think that they would have gone after Stanley if Coach K thought that AOC could handle it. Unless Alex can make huge improvement over this past season I just don’t see him playing very much.

[Scorp4me]

I think a darkhorse starting lineup involves a Tre+JG backcourt anchoring the defense around three other freshmen. Although, I admit this would require a fairly significant improvement in JG's long range shot.
- Chillin

I'm curious, anyone have the shooting stats on Goldwire from high school. I know the 3 pt line is a foot more in college but lol...still be interesting data points.

[knicknut]

I also think the lineup, at least to start the season, uses more of the experience that we haven't had in recent years. I think it's hard to relegate the two-headed monster of Bolden and Delaurier to the bench when they were productive for a #1 overall team like they were this year. Also, I think Goldwire has earned himself at least spot minutes for the rest of his Duke career and will never fall out of the rotation, knowing K and how much he values defense (see Matt Jones, Tyler Thornton, etc.).

PG: Tre, Goldwire
SG: O'Connell, Ellis, Goldwire
SF: White, Baker, Moore, Stanley
PF: Carey, Hurt
C: Bolden/Delaurier depending on matchups

It's very possible Ellis, Moore, Stanley, or Hurt supplant AOC, White, or even Bolden/Delaurier, but far less likely in November than February.

Yes, it's very easy every year to think "this is the year we're going to go 10/11/12 deep," and it never happens. I'll be curious to see who falls out given we have 5 upperclassmen this year that can all be productive in the right circumstances, but none of which are sure-fire starters.

[Dukehk]

I think the fifth starter will be Ellis or Stanley. I don’t think that they would have gone after Stanley if Coach K thought that AOC could handle it. Unless Alex can make huge improvement over this past season I just don’t see him playing very much.

I for one hope AOC makes that Sophomore to Junior improvement that catapults him into being a starter.

However, with his physique and general ability level shown last year, I highly doubt he beats out Ellis or Stanley for the starting spot. Especially from a defensive standpoint. I hope I'm wrong, but AOC just seems like a rotation player who can give us the odd 3 pointer here and there. No shame in that considering how he was a 3 star prospect coming out of HS.

[ice-9]

I think the fifth starter will be Ellis or Stanley. I don’t think that they would have gone after Stanley if Coach K thought that AOC could handle it. Unless Alex can make huge improvement over this past season I just don’t see him playing very much.

Or unless K thinks Cassius is a multi-year player and would be great for the 2020-2021 season.

[ice-9]

Yes, it's very easy every year to think "this is the year we're going to go 10/11/12 deep," and it never happens. I'll be curious to see who falls out given we have 5 upperclassmen this year that can all be productive in the right circumstances, but none of which are sure-fire starters.

Exactly. People are mixing parity with depth. We have players who on paper aren’t obviously better than the other, but that doesn’t mean they are worthy of a championship caliber team.

This team like most Duke teams will probably run 7 deep in March.

[SkyBrickey]

There is a lot of depth on this team. If Jack White returns to his first half shooting form, he will get playing time. And Joey Baker was ranked 8-15 spots higher than Stanley, Moore and Ellis in the recruiting rankings, so he'll be competing for a starting spot.

I too hope AOC can make the jump with his defense and ability to score off the drive. He's got such great elevation and form on his jump shot - he has the potential to be a great 3-point scorer for next season but the rest of the game has to catch up.

There will be more competition for backcourt minutes than I can maybe ever remember with a Duke team.

[Truth&Justise]

So, it's probably safe to assume that the title is referring to the 4 relatively safe starters being Vernon Carey, Matthew Hurt, Wendell Moore, and Tre Jones.

I think the only safe assumption is that Tre Jones will start (and play a lot of minutes!). As for the other starters, I think there are strong reasons DeLaurier, Bolden, or even Jack White could be in line to start, so I wouldn't yet agree that Carey, Hurt, or Moore are 'safe to assume' as starters.

But even in a world where White, DeLaurier and Bolden are all starters, we will likely still start a second guard next to Tre. So without conceding anything about the front court, this is still an interesting question.

My hope is that AOC makes the leap from "bad young defender" to "upperclassmen who is competent though not great." We've seen other guys take time to get better on defense, and if he can get to the point where his defense does not detract from the team, his shooting is a real asset. Ellis and Stanley (and Baker) will have a chance to show what they can do, but will also likely need time to develop...just like AOC!

[jv001]

Correction - Jack will get minutes backing Hurt at the 4. So...

Tre
AOC
Baker
Hurt
Carey

And then

Ellislo
Cassius
Moore
White
Bolden / Javier

Finally the season we go deep?? 🤣

I wonder if we’ve been too spoiled by recent freshmen making a huge impact. Cassius, Moore and Ellis aren’t likely to be like Zion, Tatum or Jabari. They may not be OADs and may not even play all that much this season.

From all of read about Wendell Moore, he's a good defender and a 5* recruit. His high school won 3 state championships. So, he's a winner. I don't know if he'll start but I think he will get more than backup minutes which you predicted. Now if you mean he comes off the bench and get's starter minutes, I would agree with you. Every player not named Jones, Carey or Hurt is a mystery when it comes to who starts and who get's major minutes. I can't wait until the minutes thread is posted but I guess I'll have to. These discussions at least takes my mind off the MSU loss. GoDuke!

[MCFinARL]

Or unless K thinks Cassius is a multi-year player and would be great for the 2020-2021 season.

Yes, but--Stanley will be a 20-year-old freshman. Maybe he will stay for the 2020-2021 season, but even that might be too long in terms of launching a pro career at whatever level he can reach. So if K is thinking of him primarily in terms of the 2020-2021 season, I hope that is something they discussed before he committed.

[BoiseDevil]

There is a lot of depth on this team. If Jack White returns to his first half shooting form, he will get playing time. And Joey Baker was ranked 8-15 spots higher than Stanley, Moore and Ellis in the recruiting rankings, so he'll be competing for a starting spot.

I too hope AOC can make the jump with his defense and ability to score off the drive. He's got such great elevation and form on his jump shot - he has the potential to be a great 3-point scorer for next season but the rest of the game has to catch up.

There will be more competition for backcourt minutes than I can maybe ever remember with a Duke team.

I think once you get on campus, confidence is more important than ranking. That being said, Joey looked anything but confident is his admittedly few minutes this past season.

My guess is that all of the freshman show up cocksure, but Carey and Hurt are the only consistent starters/scorers. I expect Moore and Stanley to be very inconsistent, but hopefully become consistently effective come March.

My guess as to 1st ACC game starting lineup (barring injuries):
- Tre - backed by Ellis for only breathers
- Moore - AOC/Stanley
- White - Stanley
- Hurt - Baker for only breathers
- Carey - Javin (think Bolden goes pro)

I think the 6th, 7th & 8th players will ultimately be Javin, Stanley and AOC - with Baker and one of those 3 barely seeing minutes in marquee matchups. Goldwire and JRob play vs Boston College, VA Tech and the like...

Don’t think this team will be nearly as talented as last year, however, I do believe the competition drops off more than we do. I expect another Final Four push but unless we have a big surprise from (Ellis, AOC, Baker, Stanley or Moore) I don’t think we’ll get #6.

[BeachBlueDevil]

Can we get through the start of football season and a few basketball practices before we start playing the role of prognosticator? The season just ended and a lot can happen between now and the start of practice.

[Edouble]

Can we get through the start of football season and a few basketball practices before we start playing the role of prognosticator? The season just ended and a lot can happen between now and the start of practice.

What do you mean by "a lot can happen"? Like players get injured? Make Horvathian strides in Card Gym pick up games?

Also, this is par for the course for the offseason. Ain't nobody waiting 'til October to talk about the 2019-20 Blue Devils.

[Saratoga2]

Breaking it down by position, I think the depth chart will look like

PG: Tre, Ellis
SG: O'Connell, Ellis, Stanley
SF: Moore, Stanley, White
PF: Hurt, Delaurier, White
C: Bolden, Carey

I think that Baker and Goldwire are out of the rotation, no way we play more than 10. If Bolden or Javin leave then White would be the biggest beneficiary and we'd see some small lineups. If they both go, then yikes we better hope Hurt is ready to bang inside.


I am reluctant to postulate the starting team and the key players off the bench this early. One reason is the status of both Bolden and DeLaurier has not been decided. In addition, I have to wonder, with us continuing to recruit Cassius whether there is another shoe to drop. We seem to have a plethora of guys who can play the 2 and 3 roles. Is there something else we haven't yet heard about this team?

[Edouble]

Can we get through the start of football season and a few basketball practices before we start playing the role of prognosticator? The season just ended and a lot can happen between now and the start of practice.


I am reluctant to postulate the starting team and the key players off the bench this early. One reason is the status of both Bolden and DeLaurier has not been decided. In addition, I have to wonder, with us continuing to recruit Cassius whether there is another shoe to drop. We seem to have a plethora of guys who can play the 2 and 3 roles. Is there something else we haven't yet heard about this team?

I see what you are getting at. I hope not.

[ndkjr70]

Can we get through the start of football season and a few basketball practices before we start playing the role of prognosticator? The season just ended and a lot can happen between now and the start of practice.

Are you upset that people are discussing Duke’s basketball roster on the website dukebasketballreport in the discussion forum section?

I mean ok

[johnb]

Tre is a starter.

Another starter was Javin Bolden, or maybe Marques Delaurier. Will they be back? Will they start? I hope so—I like them, and they’ve both earned time.

We saw some terrific minutes from AOC and Jack White. They could start.

As for the freshmen, I couldn’t possibly tell you, though I’m guessing they could all start.

I don’t need think the coaching staff knows yet.

[devildeac]

Tre is a starter.

Another starter was Javin Bolden, or maybe Marques Delaurier. Will they be back? Will they start? I hope so—I like them, and they’ve both earned time.

We saw some terrific minutes from AOC and Jack White. They could start.

As for the freshmen, I couldn’t possibly tell you, though I’m guessing they could all start.

I don’t need think the coaching staff knows yet.

They are most certainly welcome to read DBR and find out...

[Neals384]

I think the only safe assumption is that Tre Jones will start (and play a lot of minutes!). As for the other starters, I think there are strong reasons DeLaurier, Bolden, or even Jack White could be in line to start, so I wouldn't yet agree that Carey, Hurt, or Moore are 'safe to assume' as starters.

But even in a world where White, DeLaurier and Bolden are all starters, we will likely still start a second guard next to Tre. So without conceding anything about the front court, this is still an interesting question.

My hope is that AOC makes the leap from "bad young defender" to "upperclassmen who is competent though not great." We've seen other guys take time to get better on defense, and if he can get to the point where his defense does not detract from the team, his shooting is a real asset. Ellis and Stanley (and Baker) will have a chance to show what they can do, but will also likely need time to develop...just like AOC!

Of course AOC's defense is the main area for improvement, but IMHO his offense needs work as well. Most of the time he does not seem mentally prepared when he gets the ball. Shoot immediately if you are open. Or pass immediately to someone who is open. Or dribble/penetrate and then pass. All too often he would simply make a half-hearted drive for a few steps and then dribble back to the 3 pt line. Until he improves defense and basketball IQ, he may not be in the rotation once we hit ACC play.

[CDu]

Of course AOC's defense is the main area for improvement, but IMHO his offense needs work as well. Most of the time he does not seem mentally prepared when he gets the ball. Shoot immediately if you are open. Or pass immediately to someone who is open. Or dribble/penetrate and then pass. All too often he would simply make a half-hearted drive for a few steps and then dribble back to the 3 pt line. Until he improves defense and basketball IQ, he may not be in the rotation once we hit ACC play.

Yeah, O'Connell doesn't seem like a "high bball IQ" player at this point. He's pretty athletic and he has some skills, but it doesn't seem to come together on the basketball court unless he's playing against a vastly inferior opponent. So what he's tended to be is just a catch-and-shoot guy. And he's only really had success there against teams that play zone.

That's not to say he can't make strides to improve it. He has some tools for sure. But I agree that he needs to improve on both ends of the court to be a regular contributor.

[BandAlum83]

I see what you are getting at. I hope not.

I don’t see what he is getting at. Transfer?

What is the typical timing on transfer announcements / decisions?

[BandAlum83]

There does seem to be more roster parity than in recent memory. It could lend itself to a deeper rotation. What it will definitely do IMO is make this perhaps one of Ks biggest coaching challenges in a while. The pieces can be put together in so many ways affecting so many key decisions.

[CDu]

I don’t see what he is getting at. Transfer?

What is the typical timing on transfer announcements / decisions?

Transfer decisions can happen at pretty much any time. Some know in the Spring (Jeter and Thornton, for example). Some decide/announce after the semester end (Gbinije, at least officially). Some decide during the Fall and transfer midseason (Murphy, Tucker, and Czyz, for example).

[jimsumner]

Yeah, O'Connell doesn't seem like a "high bball IQ" player at this point. He's pretty athletic and he has some skills, but it doesn't seem to come together on the basketball court unless he's playing against a vastly inferior opponent. So what he's tended to be is just a catch-and-shoot guy. And he's only really had success there against teams that play zone.

That's not to say he can't make strides to improve it. He has some tools for sure. But I agree that he needs to improve on both ends of the court to be a regular contributor.

Well, he had a fair amount of success against Syracuse, not exactly a vastly inferior opponent.

But I get your point. In the first Syracuse game, Duke found out Reddish was out right before the game and Jones went down and out early. O'Connell was thrust into a major role and he didn't have time to think about it, didn't have time to fret about it. And he responded with arguably the best game of his career.

O'Connell has the ability to a top-tier ACC player. But he needs to be more emotionally resilient. He's too reliant, IMO, on early results. If his first shot goes in or he makes a good play early, then it's all rainbows and unicorns. But an early miss or two, or a dumb foul or bad turnover and he tends to shut it down. Not always. But too often.

Can he fix this? Or is the stage too big for him?

Moore, Ellis and Stanley all imperil his PT. But O'Connell has two years of experience in the NCAA's best league, two years of practice with and against some of the best players in the country, two years of tutelage by one of the best coaching staffs out there.

Moore, Ellis and O'Connell do not.

So, O'Connell should be able to leverage that experience into consistent playing time, maybe even a starting role. But he has to consistently show us things he hasn't always shown us on a consistent level.

As always, YMMV.

[kshepinthehouse]

I'm really hoping its Baker. He has a good stroke and I think he's sneaky athletic. I have to admit, I think he could have helped us this year with his outside shooting. Would have been interesting to have all 5 freshmen out there. I think once Jack's shot went MIA, and Alex wasn't hitting either, it would have been nice to see what Baker could have done. Instead he was only given 1 or 2 mins at a time, then was stashed on the bench.

[azzefkram]

Well, he had a fair amount of success against Syracuse, not exactly a vastly inferior opponent.

But I get your point. In the first Syracuse game, Duke found out Reddish was out right before the game and Jones went down and out early. O'Connell was thrust into a major role and he didn't have time to think about it, didn't have time to fret about it. And he responded with arguably the best game of his career.

...

As always, YMMV.

Unfortunately, I couldn't fargin' spork this post but I couldn't agree more. AOC has some skills and talent but hasn't shown the consistency in games yet. Without a fairly sizeable jump (which is certainly possible), I'd have a tough time pencilling him in for rotation minutes in DBR's annual minutes contest.

[CDu]

Well, he had a fair amount of success against Syracuse, not exactly a vastly inferior opponent.

Just to be clear, Syracuse was who I was referring to by the "zone" comment. The "against vastly inferior opponents" was more centered around non-zone teams. My wording wasn't clear on that, but my concept was essentially he has success against vastly inferior opponents and zone teams (where he can be a catch-and-shoot guy). His success as anything more than a catch-and-shoot scorer has generally come against bad teams or against the end-of-bench guys late in games.

[Troublemaker]

There does seem to be more roster parity than in recent memory. It could lend itself to a deeper rotation. What it will definitely do IMO is make this perhaps one of Ks biggest coaching challenges in a while. The pieces can be put together in so many ways affecting so many key decisions.


Exactly. People are mixing parity with depth. We have players who on paper aren’t obviously better than the other, but that doesn’t mean they are worthy of a championship caliber team.

This team like most Duke teams will probably run 7 deep in March.

I think it's more that people are conflating uncertainty with parity. I mean, certain players are going to separate and win their playing time battles; it's just that, based on recruiting ranks, we may not know at a couple of positions which players will win those battles as of right now.

So, for example, take the thread title example of AOC vs Cassius vs Boogie at the 2. (Which probably isn't that simple -- Coach K is capable of playing two big wings together, as he did just this past season, and he's also capable of playing two small wings together [e.g. 2012, 2013], so it's really a battle between those three in thread title and Wendell, Joey, maybe Jack, and heck maybe JGold for two starting positions). Let's say Boogie wins the starting position, Cassius finishes second, and AOC is third. I would expect Boogie to play ~30-32 mpg, Cassius ~8-10 mpg, and AOC to be out of the rotation.

In other words, just because we fans can't decide between those three in April doesn't mean they'll end up all getting playing time nor will it mean they each play 15 mpg because of "parity."



Don’t think this team will be nearly as talented as last year, however, I do believe the competition drops off more than we do. I expect another Final Four push but unless we have a big surprise from (Ellis, AOC, Baker, Stanley or Moore) I don’t think we’ll get #6.

Nationally, I don't think there will be any single team as good as UVA, Duke pre-Zion-injury, and Gonzaga from this past season, but there will be several teams as good as the next tier. So basically lop off 3 teams from 2019, but then college bball remains the same.

I do think your statement might be right about the ACC, though.


I don’t see what he is getting at. Transfer?

What is the typical timing on transfer announcements / decisions?

I don't see anything happening before winter break, personally. These players don't know what could happen if they return and compete; maybe they win the competition! So going back to the thread title example, AOC doesn't know that he's going to lose to Boogie or Cassius. He probably feels like he's better than those guys and that his experience will give him the edge. So he'll compete. And if, for a third straight year, AOC can't consistently be in Duke's rotation, then he'll have to decide whether a Duke degree and deep bench minutes are enough for him. Or maybe he wins the competition. Who knows? That's the point.

[johnb]

I wonder how quickly elite players figure out where they stand against other elite players. I’d guess that one pick up game with last year’s freshman would have left JD and MB looking at each, knowing their minutes wouldn’t be coming from RJ or Zion. And Vrank probably knew early this past year that even though he’d made sizable strides, he’d play few meaningful minutes in games.

If some of our incumbents have played with the incoming guys, they may already know they’re not going to play, and that might be enough for a transfer. Or not.

[BandAlum83]

I think it's more that people are conflating uncertainty with parity. I mean, certain players are going to separate and win their playing time battles; it's just that, based on recruiting ranks, we may not know at a couple of positions which players will win those battles as of right now.

So, for example, take the thread title example of AOC vs Cassius vs Boogie at the 2. (Which probably isn't that simple -- Coach K is capable of playing two big wings together, as he did just this past season, and he's also capable of playing two small wings together [e.g. 2012, 2013], so it's really a battle between those three in thread title and Wendell, Joey, maybe Jack, and heck maybe JGold for two starting positions). Let's say Boogie wins the starting position, Cassius finishes second, and AOC is third. I would expect Boogie to play ~30-32 mpg, Cassius ~8-10 mpg, and AOC to be out of the rotation.

In other words, just because we fans can't decide between those three in April doesn't mean they'll end up all getting playing time nor will it mean they each play 15 mpg because of "parity."



Nationally, I don't think there will be any single team as good as UVA, Duke pre-Zion-injury, and Gonzaga from this past season, but there will be several teams as good as the next tier. So basically lop off 3 teams from 2019, but then college bball remains the same.

I do think your statement might be right about the ACC, though.



I don't see anything happening before winter break, personally. These players don't know what could happen if they return and compete; maybe they win the competition! So going back to the thread title example, AOC doesn't know that he's going to lose to Boogie or Cassius. He probably feels like he's better than those guys and that his experience will give him the edge. So he'll compete. And if, for a third straight year, AOC can't consistently be in Duke's rotation, then he'll have to decide whether a Duke degree and deep bench minutes are enough for him. Or maybe he wins the competition. Who knows? That's the point.

Thus my next statement in my previous post:

What it will definitely do IMO is make this perhaps one of Ks biggest coaching challenges in a while. The pieces can be put together in so many ways affecting so many key decisions.

[ice-9]

I think it's more that people are conflating uncertainty with parity. I mean, certain players are going to separate and win their playing time battles; it's just that, based on recruiting ranks, we may not know at a couple of positions which players will win those battles as of right now.


I meant parity in terms of recruiting rank and years of experience, along the lines of Kedsy’s classifications. As in it’s hard to tell right now who will be better. So I agree uncertainty is also a valid word to use.