Welcome to Duke, Matthew Hurt!

[BLPOG]

Hurt (https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2019/matthew-hurt-4543)

9340

[ScreechTDX1847]

Hurt (https://n.rivals.com/content/prospects/2019/matthew-hurt-4543)

Looks like a fun player to watch next year.

[scottdude8]

Big piece of the puzzle next year. It’s going to be fun to see how we mix and match the variety of different guys, all of whom have different skill sets and potential roles, next year. I’m psyched.

[Dukehky]

Kid can ball. Excited to see him in the right color blue. He had a lot of blues to pick from...

[wsb3]

I have to admit when I logged on 5 minutes ago and did not see the Welcome to Duke.....I was a little nervous.

[miramar]

He thanked everyone and kept it short.

[Troublemaker]

We've got to do something about those skinny arms, but they were strong enough to pop the Duke logo on his shirt to the crowd after the announcement!

Love it.

Welcome to Duke, Matthew!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Fantastic news! It's always such a pleasure to see these talented young men put on the Blue and White. What a great way to start the weekend!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Welcome Matthew! LGD GTHc!

[JasonEvans]

He thanked everyone and kept it short.

Tony Parker is still thanking folks.

[proelitedota]

Duke: University of Minnesota. Sorry New Jersey!

jk.

Welcome Mr. Hurt. Put some Hurting on the rest of cbball next season!

[Dukehk]

Welcome to Duke Matthew!!! What a great coup for Coach K.

Have high hopes we make a run at the national title next year.

[UrinalCake]

Lots of potential when you have a versatile 4 who can shoot. Will be interesting to see how he and Carey mesh with our experienced bigs. Definitely more lineup flexibility than we had the last couple seasons. Coach K continues to recruit on another level than anybody else.

[JasonEvans]

We've got to do something about those skinny arms, but they were strong enough to pop the Duke logo on his shirt to the crowd after the announcement!

https://i.ibb.co/x58cpL0/Capture.png

[MCFinARL]

He thanked everyone and kept it short.

Yes. What an announcement should be--grateful and focused, no lenghty highlight videos or other Tony Parker-esque goings on.

Edit: I see Jason beat me to this reference.

[Troublemaker]

Evan Daniels‏Verified account @EvanDaniels (https://twitter.com/EvanDaniels) 5m5 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/EvanDaniels/status/1119335649927155712)
Duke now has the No. 1 recruiting class in the @247Sports (https://twitter.com/247Sports) Team Rankings with the addition of Matthew Hurt to Vernon Carey, Boogie Ellis & Wendell Moore.


Remember, we were worried (with good reason) after missing on a couple of kids in the fall. But Duke closed strong and might not be done yet.

[JasonEvans]

Evan Daniels‏Verified account @EvanDaniels (https://twitter.com/EvanDaniels) 5m5 minutes ago (https://twitter.com/EvanDaniels/status/1119335649927155712)More


Duke now has the No. 1 recruiting class in the @247Sports (https://twitter.com/247Sports) Team Rankings with the addition of Matthew Hurt to Vernon Carey, Boogie Ellis & Wendell Moore.


Hey Evan, check back with us in a few days after Cassius Stanley announces.

#1 with a bullet!!

[Dukehky]

Hey Evan, check back with us in a few days after Cassius Stanley announces.

#1 with a bullet!!

He thinks we get Stanley too.

Boogie Ellis is gonna shoot up rankings this summer. He was been playing really really well lately.

[OldPhiKap]

Hey Evan, check back with us in a few days after Cassius Stanley announces.

#1 with a bullet!!

And with Tre to tie it all together?

Nice.

[plimnko]

Tony Parker is still thanking folks.

and i'm still thanking him for NOT picking Duke

[Dukehky]

K worked his butt off to get Hurt. He was the first kid called and visited so often over the last couple years.

I wonder if we would have pulled this off if Kansas hadn't been implicated in recruiting violations. I guess we'll never know, but I think so, based on K's effort level. I can't remember the last kid K really wanted that he lost to Self.

[J4Kop99]

Great news!

-cue the John Mellencamp!

[UrinalCake]

I feel like we’re going to need an entire thread just for all the Hurt-related puns that will be generated this season. I’m look forward to imposing “Moore Hurt” on the rest of college basketball.

[BigZ]

Carney is the only guy I’d say a lock to be a OAD. This class may not win a title next year but might in 2021

[dukelifer]

Hurters Hurt - new slogan?

[kAzE]

Awesome recruiting win. I love this kid’s scoring ability, he will be a major part of our offense next season.

Welcome to Duke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

K worked his butt off to get Hurt. He was the first kid called and visited so often over the last couple years.

I wonder if we would have pulled this off if Kansas hadn't been implicated in recruiting violations. I guess we'll never know, but I think so, based on K's effort level. I can't remember the last kid K really wanted that he lost to Self.

So did Tre Jones.....

[weezie]

Just made a rainy, stormy day shiny and beautiful.
LGD!

[Furniture]

Here is the announcement.
very cool and funny. Seems like a great kid...

http://www.fox9.com/news/minnesota-basketball-standout-matthew-hurt-to-attend-duke

[JasonEvans]

So did Tre Jones....

Hurt said in an interview that Tre Jones' return sealed it for him. He really wanted to play with a great passing PG like Tre.

[moonpie23]

Welcome to the Brotherhood ~~~~ !!!!

[jwillfan]

We've got to do something about those skinny arms, but they were strong enough to pop the Duke logo on his shirt to the crowd after the announcement!

Love it.

Welcome to Duke, Matthew!

He *is* super skinny. How he plays defense will determine whether he's just a taller AOC. Don't mean that negatively, I love AOC - the confident version, vs Syracuse x2

[lotusland]

Duke has a lot of pieces and potentially good shooting and balance on board for next year and a good mix of talented freshmen and experienced upper-class-men. They might be a little rough on offense early on but hopefully a balanced offense emerges. Duke could throw out a great defensive lineup of Tre, JGold, Jack, Jav and Bolden but offense would be putrid. So the key will be getting the pieces to fit for winning basketball. Should be fun to watch unfold

[heyman25]

Glad we are adding shooters.Stanley next! Jones,O'Connell, White,and Goldwire will be working on improving their accuracy. Bolden and DeLaurier need midrange jumpers too

[OldPhiKap]

Will all of his stuff be stored in "The Hurt Locker?"

[ndkjr70]

He *is* super skinny. How he plays defense will determine whether he's just a taller AOC. Don't mean that negatively, I love AOC - the confident version, vs Syracuse x2

Skinny and white are literally the only comparisons between the two. He plays the 3 or a stretch-4. He’s a better shooter, passer, ball handler, decision maker, and basketball player than AOC is.

What a weird comparison.

[CDu]

Glad we are adding shooters.Stanley next! Jones,O'Connell, White,and Goldwire will be working on improving their accuracy. Bolden and DeLaurier need midrange jumpers too

Just to be clear, Stanley isn’t considered a shooter. He seems more in the Gerald Henderson mold.

Not saying we shouldn’t want him of course. Just that he isn’t bringing much shooting to the table.

[miramar]

Yes. What an announcement should be--grateful and focused, no lenghty highlight videos or other Tony Parker-esque goings on.

Edit: I see Jason beat me to this reference.

Do you remember that he said that Duke didn't develop big men for the NBA?

I guess that UCLA isn't any better.

[SlapTheFloor]

Do you remember that he said that Duke didn't develop big men for the NBA?

I guess that UCLA isn't any better.

I recall that Tony Parker tried to stop and chat with Coach K in the handshake line after a game later (maybe after he transferred to Georgetown). Coach K just kept on moving.

[Saratoga2]

A great addition who fills a need at Duke and seems like he fits with the other recruits very well. Looking forward to watching him play next season.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'm surprised all of you haven't turned this into a minutes discussion yet.

Tre Jones, Vernon Carey, Jr., and Matthew Hurt seem like locks to start next season. I'll go a step further and pencil in Wendell Moore, too. So that begs the question, who starts with those four?

My guess is Jack White. That allows Hurt the most defensive flexibility and maybe Duke can switch 2 through 4. Javin can switch as well, but that clogs the lane a bit on offense. I think we'll see some lineups with both of Carey/Bolden and DeLaurier/White in there. But I anticipate a lot more Hurt and White at the forward positions to allow Tre Jones maximum room to operate and create.

Starters: Jones, Moore, White, Hurt, Carey
Rotation: Goldwire, Stanley, Ellis, O'Connell, Baker, DeLaurier, Bolden

It would not surprise me if Ellis and Baker see the floor the least out of this group of rotation players.

[jipops]

I'm surprised all of you haven't turned this into a minutes discussion yet.

Tre Jones, Vernon Carey, Jr., and Matthew Hurt seem like locks to start next season. I'll go a step further and pencil in Wendell Moore, too. So that begs the question, who starts with those four?

My guess is Jack White. That allows Hurt the most defensive flexibility and maybe Duke can switch 2 through 4. Javin can switch as well, but that clogs the lane a bit on offense. I think we'll see some lineups with both of Carey/Bolden and DeLaurier/White in there. But I anticipate a lot more Hurt and White at the forward positions to allow Tre Jones maximum room to operate and create.

Starters: Jones, Moore, White, Hurt, Carey
Rotation: Goldwire, Stanley, Ellis, O'Connell, Baker, DeLaurier, Bolden

It would not surprise me if Ellis and Baker see the floor the least out of this group of rotation players.

I think it is likely that Hurt and Carey will earn some starts but the only lock to start the whole season is Tre. Bolden is still a significant talent on both ends of the floor and is entering his senior season. Javin showed improvement defensively and has the ability to make an impact athletically. He is also entering his senior season. It is not a lock that two freshmen that are apparently not at the level of Okafor, Tatum, Parker, or Zion will be starting over these seniors for a majority of the season.

[dukelifer]

I'm surprised all of you haven't turned this into a minutes discussion yet.

Tre Jones, Vernon Carey, Jr., and Matthew Hurt seem like locks to start next season. I'll go a step further and pencil in Wendell Moore, too. So that begs the question, who starts with those four?

My guess is Jack White. That allows Hurt the most defensive flexibility and maybe Duke can switch 2 through 4. Javin can switch as well, but that clogs the lane a bit on offense. I think we'll see some lineups with both of Carey/Bolden and DeLaurier/White in there. But I anticipate a lot more Hurt and White at the forward positions to allow Tre Jones maximum room to operate and create.

Starters: Jones, Moore, White, Hurt, Carey
Rotation: Goldwire, Stanley, Ellis, O'Connell, Baker, DeLaurier, Bolden

It would not surprise me if Ellis and Baker see the floor the least out of this group of rotation players.
I predict Ellis. The kid can shoot and create off the dribble.

[NSDukeFan]

Welcome to Duke Matthew! This commitment has made it a Good Friday.

[proelitedota]

With Capel gone instead of getting the number 1 recruiting class we have to settle for the number 1 recruiting class.

[devilirium]

Tony Parker is still thanking folks.

And his priest is still blessing the hats !

[BD80]

Tony Parker is still thanking folks.

His announcement lasted longer than his NBA career.

[curtis325]

I'm surprised all of you haven't turned this into a minutes discussion yet.

Tre Jones, Vernon Carey, Jr., and Matthew Hurt seem like locks to start next season. I'll go a step further and pencil in Wendell Moore, too. So that begs the question, who starts with those four?

My guess is Jack White. That allows Hurt the most defensive flexibility and maybe Duke can switch 2 through 4. Javin can switch as well, but that clogs the lane a bit on offense. I think we'll see some lineups with both of Carey/Bolden and DeLaurier/White in there. But I anticipate a lot more Hurt and White at the forward positions to allow Tre Jones maximum room to operate and create.

Starters: Jones, Moore, White, Hurt, Carey
Rotation: Goldwire, Stanley, Ellis, O'Connell, Baker, DeLaurier, Bolden

It would not surprise me if Ellis and Baker see the floor the least out of this group of rotation players.


Oh, happy day! A 12-man rotation finally.

[AZLA]

Just watching some youtube tape on Hurt.

Is it me or does his shot look a lot like Bird’s?

That sorta setshot semi jump with a slight wristy hitch and follow thru...

I guess all that matters is how the ball rips the net.

Cuz no one ever misses in a highlight video :).

But seriously that shot is supple and deadly.

[AGDukesky]

Just watching some youtube tape on Hurt.

Is it me or does his shot look a lot like Bird’s?

That sorta setshot semi jump with a slight wristy hitch and follow thru...

I guess all that matters is how the ball rips the net.

Cuz no one ever misses in a highlight video :).

But seriously that shot is supple and deadly.

Yeah, I was watching the same thing. Supple is a great word for it. His shot has the least body movement I can remember for a Duke player and is very Bird like.

[oldnavy]

Yeah, I was watching the same thing. Supple is a great word for it. His shot has the least body movement I can remember for a Duke player and is very Bird like.

Shot looks good against smaller opponents and when he is wide open.... didn't see a lot of contested shots in the video. I hope he can make them under some pressure, but he looks under-matched in the video.

His footwork in the paint looks good and he has a soft touch at the rim which I like to see (doesn't seem to need to dunk every shot).

I hope he cools the "3" sign mess (especially the kiss part).... no need for it and it is a bit of overreaction for making a simple 20 foot jump shot (wait, I think I see some kids on my lawn...)

Ok, false alarm... besides he already has all the risk factors for being the "next most hated Duke player" anyway, but I am willing to bet that will happen regardless of how he behaves if he is productive.

Glad to have him, but I am going to curb my enthusiasm until I see how he plays going into January next season as I do will all the recruits now.

Happy Eater everyone!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

[QUOTE=oldnavy;1157689]Shot looks good against smaller opponents and when he is wide open... didn't see a lot of contested shots in the video. I hope he can make them under some pressure, but he looks under-matched in the video.

/QUOTE]

you mean like every 5 star recruit ever?????? Of course he's under-matched...5 stars are RARE.

[oldnavy]

[QUOTE=oldnavy;1157689]Shot looks good against smaller opponents and when he is wide open... didn't see a lot of contested shots in the video. I hope he can make them under some pressure, but he looks under-matched in the video.

/QUOTE]

you mean like every 5 star recruit ever?????? Of course he's under-matched...5 stars are RARE.

Yep, and how many "5 stars" have disappointed and were deemed overrated when they got to the college game? Hence the wait and see approach.

[devildeac]

[QUOTE=HereBeforeCoachK;1157712]

Yep, and how many "5 stars" have disappointed and were deemed overrated when they got to the college game? Hence the wait and see approach.

Nah, I want to start the jersey retirement speculation, I mean discussion, *before* he even get to campus this summer.

:rolleyes:

[Indoor66]

[QUOTE=oldnavy;1157720]

Nah, I want to start the jersey retirement speculation, I mean discussion, *before* he even get to campus this summer.

:rolleyes:

Darn. You have turned into a DBR traditionalist. 😎

[dukelifer]

[QUOTE=oldnavy;1157720]

Nah, I want to start the jersey retirement speculation, I mean discussion, *before* he even get to campus this summer.

:rolleyes:

May make sense to retire the jersey now so he graduates and stays for at least 3 years.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

[QUOTE=devildeac;1157724]

May make sense to retire the jersey now so he graduates and stays for at least 3 years.

Can you retire a jersey and redshirt it at the same time???

[AGDukesky]

[QUOTE=dukelifer;1157738]

Can you retire a jersey and redshirt it at the same time???

How do I spork?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

[QUOTE=dukelifer;1157738]

Can you retire a jersey and redshirt it at the same time???

Can we have a redshirt one and done? One year on the practice squad but no game time?

[roywhite]

[QUOTE=HereBeforeCoachK;1157739]

Can we have a redshirt one and done? One year on the practice squad but no game time?

Well, let's certainly wish him an injury-free season. Kyrie Irving and Harry Giles come to mind as 5-stars who ended up with greatly shortened playing time in their one season.

[Troublemaker]

Interesting stats from the USA U-18 FIBA team from last summer (stats come from this link on the Team USA website, which asks you to download a pdf (https://www.usab.com/~/media/6b442d52d1e8428fb9fe27b58e75bafa.ashx?la=en)):

https://i.imgur.com/NpsMv4e.png


Notice that Matthew led Team USA in combined blocks and steals, including leading the team in blocks. (He was the Zion of Team USA!).

Now, the competition is weak, of course, but the comparison here isn't between Matthew and the competition but between Matthew and his talented USA teammates. It was perhaps easy to rack up blocks and steals, but it wasn't easy to rack up more than Matthew, in other words. He even out-produced (on those two stats) athletic fellow frontcourt starter Robinson-Earl, who is known for his defense (https://basketballrecruiting.rivals.com/news/robinson-earl-a-five-star-attraction-in-2019).

This isn't to say that Matthew will necessarily be a good defender, but I'm trying to introduce the possibility that he could be. At the very least, we shouldn't assume that he sucks on defense because he's white or something.

[Troublemaker]

Here's Matthew staying with Trevon Duval on a drive and blocking his shot during a USA Basketball minicamp. Original video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_59ko7FouA

Higher resolution version of the GIF here: https://gfycat.com/dependabledeadlyafricangroundhornbill

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/DependableDeadlyAfricangroundhornbill.webp

[Troublemaker]

From the same USA minicamp, here's Matthew reacting quickly to block Trae Young's famously quick-release jumpshot after a called switch by Matthew's teammate. (Note that the communication on the switch was poor [needs to be earlier] between the two defenders, but what is noteworthy here is Matthew's quick reaction regardless to block the shot).

Higher-resolution version here: https://gfycat.com/belatedtornfrillneckedlizard


https://thumbs.gfycat.com/BelatedTornFrillneckedlizard.webp

[Troublemaker]

From the same USA minicamp, here's Matthew staying with Collin Sexton on a drive and blocking his shot. After seeing these plays I'm posting, you begin to get a sense for how Matthew was able to lead Team USA in combined blocks and steals.

Higher-res version here: https://gfycat.com/spiffyvibrantharvestmen


https://thumbs.gfycat.com/SpiffyVibrantHarvestmen.webp

[Troublemaker]

Shot looks good against smaller opponents and when he is wide open... didn't see a lot of contested shots in the video.

Watch the USA minicamp video I posted. Or various videos of him playing on the Adidas circuit.

Also, Jonathan Givony (Draft Express / ESPN) stated that "Hurt is coming off an outstanding week at the Nike Hoop Summit, and is a clear-cut one-and-done top-20 or even lottery prospect if he plays up to expectations as a freshman at Duke." source is ESPN Insider ($$$) article here (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/26559434/meet-duke-newest-matchup-problem-matthew-hurt).

[Troublemaker]

Moving on to the actual FIBA games, this is arguably Matthew's finest defensive play in his FIBA career. He stones the drive, almost gets the steal, and then blocks the shot. THEN, he immediately and in one fluid movement tracks down the blocked shot and makes the save to a teammate to start the fast break.

Higher-res version here: https://gfycat.com/phonyfluidamericanwirehair-streethistory-videos-sports-basketball

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/PhonyFluidAmericanwirehair.webp

[proelitedota]

From these clips, the way that Hurt moves his feet to recover for a block reminds me of Zion.

[SilkyJ]

Watch the USA minicamp video I posted. Or various videos of him playing on the Adidas circuit.

Also, Jonathan Givony (Draft Express / ESPN) stated that "Hurt is coming off an outstanding week at the Nike Hoop Summit, and is a clear-cut one-and-done top-20 or even lottery prospect if he plays up to expectations as a freshman at Duke." source is ESPN Insider ($$$) article here (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/26559434/meet-duke-newest-matchup-problem-matthew-hurt).

The videos combined with the Team USA stats (which I admittedly place more stock in than many) tell me this guy is a starter. Given our crowded frontcourt I was unsure if he'd start given where he falls in Kedsy's rating system, but I think his shooting combined with what looks to be solid athleticism and defense tell me he's lock to start at the 4 and may even play some 5 in smaller lineups (although given Carey+Bolden+Javin, seems unlikely we'll need him to play there)

Frontcourt is crowwwwwded next year. Frankly, we are deep everywhere next year, sans PG, but even there I think we have solid depth with Jordan having a solid finish to the season+Boogie in a pinch.

[Troublemaker]

This play is not nearly as spectacular but is still in the same vein as the play immediately above, in that Matthew shows quick awareness and quick reaction to fluidly transition between two defensive actions. Matthew's first priority is to stop the ball but when the guard throws a bounce pass to an offensive player that has gotten behind a USA teammate, Matthew immediately and fluidly transitions into a rim-challenge to cause a miss.

Higher-res version here: https://gfycat.com/showyfriendlyanchovy-streethistory-videos-sports-basketball


https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ShowyFriendlyAnchovy.webp

[Troublemaker]

The videos combined with the Team USA stats (which I admittedly place more stock in than many) tell me this guy is a starter. Given our crowded frontcourt I was unsure if he'd start given where he falls in Kedsy's rating system, but I think his shooting combined with what looks to be solid athleticism and defense tell me he's lock to start at the 4 and may even play some 5 in smaller lineups (although given Carey+Bolden+Javin, seems unlikely we'll need him to play there)

Frontcourt is crowwwwwded next year. Frankly, we are deep everywhere next year, sans PG, but even there I think we have solid depth with Jordan having a solid finish to the season+Boogie in a pinch.

Hurt is RSCI #6 (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home/summer-2019). He would start in Kedsy's model. Kedsy can correct if I'm wrong.

[SilkyJ]

This play is not nearly as spectacular but is still in the same vein as the play immediately above, in that Matthew shows quick awareness and quick reaction to fluidly transition between two defensive actions. Matthew's first priority is to stop the ball but when the guard throws a bounce pass to an offensive player that has gotten behind a USA teammate, Matthew immediately and fluidly transitions into a rim-challenge to cause a miss.

Higher-res version here: https://gfycat.com/showyfriendlyanchovy-streethistory-videos-sports-basketball


https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ShowyFriendlyAnchovy.webp

Definitely good action by Matt...but in a game where they are up 99-17!!! Tough to say that it was truly Matt that caused that miss ;)

[SilkyJ]

Hurt is RSCI #6 (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home/summer-2019). He would start in Kedsy's model. Kedsy can correct if I'm wrong.

That's higher than I thought. Saw something where he was closer to 10 (CBS Sports I believe). I think of Top 5 as being locks--agree #6 should sneak into that, especially with what I've seen.

So if Carey and Hurt both start and play a lot then Javin and Bolden are both going to see lighter minutes...one of them very light minutes.

[Troublemaker]

Definitely good action by Matt...but in a game where they are up 99-17!!! Tough to say that it was truly Matt that caused that miss ;)

Haha, true!

This one ends with a nice long-range outlet pass. The defensive play was really made by his teammate's (#11) deflection, but at least Matthew was aware of both his man fanning to the corner and the immediate danger cutting to the basket. If no deflection, Matthew probably just gets another blocked shot.

Higher-res version: https://gfycat.com/oddmildalbertosaurus

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/OddMildAlbertosaurus.webp

[dukelifer]

That's higher than I thought. Saw something where he was closer to 10 (CBS Sports I believe). I think of Top 5 as being locks--agree #6 should sneak into that, especially with what I've seen.

So if Carey and Hurt both start and play a lot then Javin and Bolden are both going to see lighter minutes...one of them very light minutes.

I still think it is Carey. Big guys usually take a while. If he plays more minutes then it is because he figured out things very quickly.

[Troublemaker]

One last play for now, just because it shows overall excellent USA team defense. (Coach Don Showalter [Team USA's drill instructor essentially] does a great job building and drilling USA's offensive and defensive principles into the Junior team during the minicamps). Matthew ends the play with the blocked shot, but the beauty is in his teammates' X-Out (https://medium.com/the-basketball-dictionary/x-out-78e01e2e4c9d) to help the helper's helper and chase the shooter off the line.

Higher-res version here: https://gfycat.com/impuredescriptivegarpike

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ImpureDescriptiveGarpike.webp

[robed deity]

One last play for now, just because it shows overall excellent USA team defense. (Coach Don Showalter [Team USA's drill instructor essentially] does a great job building and drilling USA's offensive and defensive principles into the Junior team during the minicamps). Matthew ends the play with the blocked shot, but the beauty is in his teammates' X-Out (https://medium.com/the-basketball-dictionary/x-out-78e01e2e4c9d) to help the helper's helper and chase the shooter off the line.

Higher-res version here: https://gfycat.com/impuredescriptivegarpike

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ImpureDescriptiveGarpike.webp

Thank you for these. At the very least, I think it shows that Hurt will not be a bad defender next year- which is huge.

[dukelifer]

One last play for now, just because it shows overall excellent USA team defense. (Coach Don Showalter [Team USA's drill instructor essentially] does a great job building and drilling USA's offensive and defensive principles into the Junior team during the minicamps). Matthew ends the play with the blocked shot, but the beauty is in his teammates' X-Out (https://medium.com/the-basketball-dictionary/x-out-78e01e2e4c9d) to help the helper's helper and chase the shooter off the line.

Higher-res version here: https://gfycat.com/impuredescriptivegarpike

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ImpureDescriptiveGarpike.webp

A lot of good defenders who lack elite athleticism make up for it with great understanding of the game and anticipation of player movement. I suspect that Hurt has a good feel for the game- much like Jones.

[SilkyJ]

I still think it is Carey. Big guys usually take a while. If he plays more minutes then it is because he figured out things very quickly.

Are you basing this on anything? Seems like a pretty uninformed opinion and suggests you've never looked at the data. Every single piece of data we have suggests that top 5 recruits, including big men, start and play a lot of minutes at Duke, barring injury. (The only one who hasn't was Harry Giles who doesn't apply to the preceding sentence b/c he was coming off injury/ACL surgery).

In the RSCI era (since 1998) Literally every single player ranked in the top 5 who has come to Duke has started and played a lot, barring injury. That includes big men. Every single piece of data we have in the modern era tells us that unless Carey is injured/gets injured he will start and play a lot.

Take a peak for yourself (RSCI link (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home)) and see if you still feel that way.

[CDu]

Are you basing this on anything? Seems like a pretty uninformed opinion and suggests you've never looked at the data. Every single piece of data we have suggests that top 5 recruits, including big men, start and play a lot of minutes at Duke, barring injury. (The only one who hasn't was Harry Giles who doesn't apply to the preceding sentence b/c he was coming off injury/ACL surgery).

In the RSCI era (since 1998) Literally every single player ranked in the top 5 who has come to Duke has started and played a lot, barring injury. That includes big men. Every single piece of data we have in the modern era tells us that unless Carey is injured/gets injured he will start and play a lot.

Take a peak for yourself (RSCI link (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home)) and see if you still feel that way.

Yeah I would be shocked if Carey isn’t our starting center, and I would be equally shocked if Hurt isn’t our starting PF. I get wanting to root for the upperclassmen that have been here for a while. But as Silky notes, barring injury our top-5 recruits (and almost always our top-10 recruits) have been starters from day one. This is certainly true of the last decade.

One can debate whether Moore will be a sure-fire starter (I think he will, but it would not be unheard of for him not to do so). One can certainly debate whether Ellis or (if he picks Duke) Stanley would start. But top-10 recruits start at Duke. The talent wins out.

[dukelifer]

Are you basing this on anything? Seems like a pretty uninformed opinion and suggests you've never looked at the data. Every single piece of data we have suggests that top 5 recruits, including big men, start and play a lot of minutes at Duke, barring injury. (The only one who hasn't was Harry Giles who doesn't apply to the preceding sentence b/c he was coming off injury/ACL surgery).

In the RSCI era (since 1998) Literally every single player ranked in the top 5 who has come to Duke has started and played a lot, barring injury. That includes big men. Every single piece of data we have in the modern era tells us that unless Carey is injured/gets injured he will start and play a lot.

Take a peak for yourself (RSCI link (https://sites.google.com/site/rscihoops/home)) and see if you still feel that way.
I will take a look but some of these are a bit unusual of late with few big men returnees. I was basing this on other big men. McAdoo was 6- not in the magical top 5- and did not light up his freshman year. I am not saying Carey won’t have an impact but is he better than the two seniors out of the gate- time will tell.

[CDu]

I will take a look but some of these are a bit unusual of late with few big men returnees. I was basing this on other big men. McAdoo was 6- not in the magical top 5- and did not light up his freshman year. I am not saying Carey won’t have an impact but is he better than the two seniors out of the gate- time will tell.

McAdoo did not come to Duke. He went to UNC, which has a longstanding tradition of not starting their freshmen. He was stuck behind two other top-10 bigs.

At Duke, stud freshmen start, and start right away. The only top-10 recruit at Duke in the last decade who didn’t start was Harry Giles, and that was due to a ton of injuries.

Carey is a stud. Like Okafor and like Carter before him, he will almost assuredly start from day one.

[SilkyJ]

I will take a look but some of these are a bit unusual of late with few big men returnees. I was basing this on other big men. McAdoo was 6- not in the magical top 5- and did not light up his freshman year. I am not saying Carey won’t have an impact but is he better than the two seniors out of the gate- time will tell.

Macawhat? Macawho? We aren't talking about what other schools do with their freshman.

We don't need time to tell--we have the data!

[jv001]

McAdoo did not come to Duke. He went to UNC, which has a longstanding tradition of not starting their freshmen. He was stuck behind two other top-10 bigs.

At Duke, stud freshmen start, and start right away. The only top-10 recruit at Duke in the last decade who didn’t start was Harry Giles, and that was due to a ton of injuries.

Carey is a stud. Like Okafor and like Carter before him, he will almost assuredly start from day one.

I believe you and Troublemaker are correct. Carey and Hurt are almost assured to start and get major minutes. Where that leaves Marques and Javin I have no idea. Marques showed major improvement and Javin played well late in the season. If they can improve that much more over the pre-season, that leaves Coach K with a good problem. I believe the perimeter options might be a mystery as well. Tre is the only player that I would pencil in to start day one. Then we have: Alex, Joey, Moore, Ellis, Goldy and possibly Stanley. Preseason workouts and early practice is going to be intense and competitive. Thank you and TM for your information on our new guys. Too bad I couldn't sporkz you two, but here's a GODUKE!

I just realized I left out Jack White. I guess he's another inside player. Man, we have some experience that didn't play major minutes with the exception of Tre. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

Yeah I would be shocked if Carey isn’t our starting center, and I would be equally shocked if Hurt isn’t our starting PF. I get wanting to root for the upperclassmen that have been here for a while. But as Silky notes, barring injury our top-5 recruits (and almost always our top-10 recruits) have been starters from day one. This is certainly true of the last decade.

One can debate whether Moore will be a sure-fire starter (I think he will, but it would not be unheard of for him not to do so). One can certainly debate whether Ellis or (if he picks Duke) Stanley would start. But top-10 recruits start at Duke. The talent wins out.

CDu: Can you think of any returning starters who have not been in the starting lineup?

There's Greg Paulus -- from 33 of 34 in 2008 to five of 36 in 2009. Anyone else? Rasheed started only half the games in 2014 after starting almost all the games in 2013 -- retreating from 30 to 25 MPG -- not a huge difference.

Starters or not, I would expect both Javin and Marques to play substantial minutes. I mean -- we have some experience, at last -- why don't we use it?

[MChambers]

CDu: Can you think of any returning starters who have not been in the starting lineup?

There's Greg Paulus -- from 33 of 34 in 2008 to five of 36 in 2009. Anyone else? Rasheed started only half the games in 2014 after starting almost all the games in 2013 -- retreating from 30 to 25 MPG -- not a huge difference.
Bolden and DeLaurier aren’t typical returning starters, in that they pretty well split starting and minutes. Neither one really owned the position like a starter normally does.

[sagegrouse]

Bolden and DeLaurier aren’t typical returning starters, in that they pretty well split starting and minutes. Neither one really owned the position like a starter normally does.

Not disagreeing, really, but in my view, that's better -- two experienced big men. One has to go back to the Plumlees to find that.

[MChambers]

Not disagreeing, really, but in my view, that's better -- two experienced big men. One has to go back to the Plumlees to find that.

I agree that it is good for the team, but I was trying to point out that it doesn’t give them a particularly strong case for starting next season.

Will be interesting to see how Coach K manages this. I do think that White and DeLaurier would deal with coming off the bench as well as you could expect. Both seem to be true team players and leaders. (I’m not saying that Bolden isn’t — I just don’t know.)

[dukelifer]

Macawhat? Macawho? We aren't talking about what other schools do with their freshman.

We don't need time to tell--we have the data!

When I made my first statement-I was generalizing to most big men- even McDonald AAs. But if you all contend that there is something magical about a Duke player being in the top 5 vs being in the top 11- then I guess you are right. Based on the data - he should be in contention for rookie of the year and make one of the All-ACC teams. Anything else would be highly unusual. Based on the data - he will be Duke’s primary option and average at least 15 a game. Well there you go.

[nmduke2001]

But can he make free throws?

[CDu]

CDu: Can you think of any returning starters who have not been in the starting lineup?

There's Greg Paulus -- from 33 of 34 in 2008 to five of 36 in 2009. Anyone else? Rasheed started only half the games in 2014 after starting almost all the games in 2013 -- retreating from 30 to 25 MPG -- not a huge difference.

Starters or not, I would expect both Javin and Marques to play substantial minutes. I mean -- we have some experience, at last -- why don't we use it?

Bolden started 21 games and averaged 19 mpg. DeLaurier started 16 games and averaged 16.3 mpg. So while I value them, I am not sure I would call either a true starter. Each has played less than Tre Jones to this point in their careers.

Their minutes line up more with a guy like Miles Plumlee, who never could quite land and keep a starting spot. Or early-career Lance Thomas, who played limited minutes until his senior year when we had no bodies and a bunch of uber-raw young bigs.

I suspect that, if both stay, they will combine for about 25 mpg next year. That is only a dropoff of about 9 mpg. When you factor in that next year’s team has two elite frontcourt prospects whereas this year’s team had one, that hardly feels pessimistic. I think Carey and Hurt are much more talented. And on a team that won’t have a ton of weapons, the two freshman bigs present such a fabulous offensive duo.

[Faustus]

Yes, but have we factored in our annual foot, knee and other leg injuries in the frontcourt yet? I bet we'll need every one of our guys next season...

[dukelifer]

Macawhat? Macawho? We aren't talking about what other schools do with their freshman.

We don't need time to tell--we have the data!

Okay- Here is what I found (top 5 RSCI)- hopefully correct

2019 Carey
2018 Barrett, Reddish, Williamson
2017 Bagley (21ppg), Duval
2016 Giles (3.9 ppg), Tatum
2015 Ingram
2014 Okafor 17.3 ppg
2013 Parker
2012 None
2011 Rivers
2010 Irving
2009 None
2008 None
2007 None
2006 None
2005 McRoberts 8.7 points
2004 None
2003 Deng
2002 None
2001 None
2000 None
1999 Williams
1998 None

Now- what Duke bigs can we compare Carey ranked (2). I would say McRoberts ranked 1, Okafor (1), Giles (2), Bagley (1). One could throw in Ingram but I think he is a different type of player. Two of those 4 comps did not dominate their Freshman year and two were the most dominant. So if this is the data- I would say as a Duke big, the chances of Carey dominating is 50%. As for a non center- the other top 5 players did very well, other than Duval and Reddish who were solid but not great.

[CDu]

Okay- Here is what I found (top 5 RSCI)- hopefully correct

2019 Carey
2018 Barrett, Reddish, Williamson
2017 Bagley (21ppg), Duval
2016 Giles (3.9 ppg), Tatum
2015 Ingram
2014 Okafor 17.3 ppg
2013 Parker
2012 None
2011 Rivers
2010 Irving
2009 None
2008 None
2007 None
2006 None
2005 McRoberts 8.7 points
2004 None
2003 Deng
2002 None
2001 None
2000 None
1999 Williams
1998 None

Now- what Duke bigs can we compare Carey ranked (2). I would say McRoberts ranked 1, Okafor (1), Giles (2), Bagley (1). One could throw in Ingram but I think he is a different type of player. Two of those 4 comps did not dominate their Freshman year and two were the most dominant. So if this is the data- I would say as a Duke big, the chances of Carey dominating is 50%. As for a non center- the other top 5 players did very well, other than Duval and Reddish who were solid but not great.

It is just a bit disingenuous to include Giles. He was a physical shell of himself when he got to Duke.

But again, note the common theme here: all but the severely injured Giles started from day one.

And you can extend that to the top-10 as well, with Singler and Carter and Tyus Jones joining the list.

[AZLA]

Bolden and DeLaurier aren’t typical returning starters, in that they pretty well split starting and minutes. Neither one really owned the position like a starter normally does.

I feel that the second bright light coming out of the tourney (Beyond Tre returning) is how consistently well Javin played defensively and in the paint with put backs in against UCF and MSU. He was poised, putting himself it good positions off the ball, and battling effectively against some serious size. I mean his block on Tako was unexpected. You could see his confidence and his play progressing. His leadership, experience, and defense are going to get him substantial PT.

MB had a solid season. His blockfest against Auburn was impressive. Seemed he got a little lost at times and out of position against MSU on the pick n roll. I hope he can get his post game operating at a high level and get 100% healthy. He still has some upside and another season to prove it out.

[dukelifer]

It is just a bit disingenuous to include Giles. He was a physical shell of himself when he got to Duke.

But again, note the common theme here: all but the severely injured Giles started from day one.

And you can extend that to the top-10 as well, with Singler and Carter and Tyus Jones joining the list.

Yes they all started. But my point is that they were not guaranteed studs. But if you are saying that Carey is as good as Bagley or Okafor- then Duke is in for a good year. That all said, the Duke guys, Moore and Ellis, at the Jordan Brand Classic did not have great nights- unless you include Stanley if he joins on Monday. He had 16.

https://basketball.realgm.com/highschool/jordan_classic/stats/2019

[sagegrouse]

Bolden started 21 games and averaged 19 mpg. DeLaurier started 16 games and averaged 16.3 mpg. So while I value them, I am not sure I would call either a true starter. Each has played less than Tre Jones to this point in their careers.

Their minutes line up more with a guy like Miles Plumlee, who never could quite land and keep a starting spot. Or early-career Lance Thomas, who played limited minutes until his senior year when we had no bodies and a bunch of uber-raw young bigs.

I suspect that, if both stay, they will combine for about 25 mpg next year. That is only a dropoff of about 9 mpg. When you factor in that next year’s team has two elite frontcourt prospects whereas this year’s team had one, that hardly feels pessimistic. I think Carey and Hurt are much more talented. And on a team that won’t have a ton of weapons, the two freshman bigs present such a fabulous offensive duo.

Let's see.... Duke played 38 games, and the two started 37 of them. Seems simple to me, but.... Anyway, if both stick around, I hope and expect to see them play significant minutes.

I would be happy if either Carey or Hurt had the maturity on the court of Barrett (for a freshman) or the surreal physical prowess of Zion, but I expect they will not... And we will benefit from using players with experience.

[CDu]

Let's see... Duke played 38 games, and the two started 37 of them. Seems simple to me, but... Anyway, if both stick around, I hope and expect to see them play significant minutes.

I would be happy if either Carey or Hurt had the maturity on the court of Barrett (for a freshman) or the surreal physical prowess of Zion, but I expect they will not... And we will benefit from using players with experience.

If they were one player, I would call him a starter. They were not one player. Somebody had to start. Neither was able to lock down the role.

[SilkyJ]

Let's see... Duke played 38 games, and the two started 37 of them. Seems simple to me, but... Anyway, if both stick around, I hope and expect to see them play significant minutes.

I would be happy if either Carey or Hurt had the maturity on the court of Barrett (for a freshman) or the surreal physical prowess of Zion, but I expect they will not... And we will benefit from using players with experience.


If they were one player, I would call him a starter. They were not one player. Somebody had to start. Neither was able to lock down the role.

Would agree with CDu. You are saying 2 players combined to equal 1 starter's worth of starts & minutes. So each was 1/2 a starter. That means neither was
a true starter.

I will say, I believe both showed strong improvement last year, but both have gaping weaknesses that make their minutes very vulnerable (hence why neither could lock down typical starter minutes of 30mpg).

I'd say both could be solid players for next year's team or any year's team, but both are highly vulnerable to losing minutes next year.


Okay- Here is what I found (top 5 RSCI)- hopefully correct

...

Now- what Duke bigs can we compare Carey ranked (2). I would say McRoberts ranked 1, Okafor (1), Giles (2), Bagley (1). One could throw in Ingram but I think he is a different type of player. Two of those 4 comps did not dominate their Freshman year and two were the most dominant. So if this is the data- I would say as a Duke big, the chances of Carey dominating is 50%. As for a non center- the other top 5 players did very well, other than Duval and Reddish who were solid but not great.

Tough to compare McBob as well given it was a different era (pre One-and-Done). Duke lost far fewer players every year, so there were less minutes/shots to go around for the newcomers. Players came back every year who might have previously gone pro earlier.

Now we have an exodus every year (lose 3 starters this year, lost all 5 last year) so its much easier to come in and get your shots. Giles isn't a fair comp--he was playing on 1.5 legs. I'd add Carter to this list. He nearly averaged a double-double as a freshman, started EVERY GAME, and was a serious force on defense as well.

I don't know whether Carey is going to average 20ppg, but he's going to start, play a lot, and probably average at least in the low-mid teens.

[plimnko]

I don't know who is going to get what minutes, but I'm looking for a more balanced team. hopefully good inside scoring supported by consistent outside/3point shooting, and reliable free throws. mix that with a stingy defense................is that too much to ask? lol

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Off top of my head, when was Duke last utilizing a deep rotation? The 86-87 season maybe? With massive and talented graduation from the great 86 team - it seems to me that they had to piece it together with a lot of players the next season.....and they had another really good season and launched the 5 in a row, 7 in 9 FF run.

[CDu]

Yes they all started. But my point is that they were not guaranteed studs. But if you are saying that Carey is as good as Bagley or Okafor- then Duke is in for a good year. That all said, the Duke guys, Moore and Ellis, at the Jordan Brand Classic did not have great nights- unless you include Stanley if he joins on Monday. He had 16.

https://basketball.realgm.com/highschool/jordan_classic/stats/2019

I didn’t say as good as Bagley. I said comparable to Okafor and Carter.

[sagegrouse]

Off top of my head, when was Duke last utilizing a deep rotation? The 86-87 season maybe? With massive and talented graduation from the great 86 team - it seems to me that they had to piece it together with a lot of players the next season....and they had another really good season and launched the 5 in a row, 7 in 9 FF run.

Check out 1998 and 1999.

[CDu]

Check out 1998 and 1999.

I wouldn’t waste time with 1999. That team ran teams out of the gym and had 5-10 minutes of garbage time per game. In competitive games, it was a 7-man rotation.

Similar story in 1998, with the additional contributing factors that Price was suspended for the first semester and Brand missed a huge chunk of the season with injury.

Also worth noting that 1998 had 7 McDonalds’ All-Americans, plus a college All-American (McLeod), plus another future All-American (Carrawell) plus a future All-ACC (Avery). The 1999 team had 7 McDs plus all-ACC Avery plus Carrawell. And they STILL trimmed the rotation to 7 in competitive games.

If you assume we will have multiple rotation guys miss more than 1/3 of the season or that we will run roughshod over college ball, then those seasons might be reference points. Otherwise, probably not.

[sagegrouse]

I wouldn’t waste time with 1999. That team ran teams out of the gym and had 5-10 minutes of garbage time per game. In competitive games, it was a 7-man rotation.

Similar story in 1998, with the additional contributing factors that Price was suspended for the first semester and Brand missed a huge chunk of the season with injury.

Also worth noting that 1998 had 7 McDonalds’ All-Americans, plus a college All-American (McLeod), plus another future All-American (Carrawell) plus a future All-ACC (Avery). The 1999 team had 7 McDs plus all-ACC Avery plus Carrawell. And they STILL trimmed the rotation to 7 in competitive games.

If you assume we will have multiple rotation guys miss more than 1/3 of the season or that we will run roughshod over college ball, then those seasons might be reference points. Otherwise, probably not.

Uh, a couple of canards here. First, Duke doesn't have "garbage time" -- all play is intense, evaluated and intended to be played at a high level. There is an exception -- the final minute or so when the walk-ons appear. Chick Hearn the former LA announcer coined the term to refer to the sloppy play when the NBA teams cleared the bench -- and it was and is sloppy. Virtually all minutes at Duke are "meaningful" and provide valuable experience for the players.

Second, the fact that K sometimes, but not always, plays fewer players in some late-season games is not terribly important, IMHO (where the H got smoked at that cigar bar in Tampa in 1999). It's the season-long experience that counts -- best measured, although not perfectly, by minutes played.

By the way, in the 1999 finals Duke played eight players, and the minutes by James (seven) and Burgess (six) were meaningful.

Kindly,
Sage
'Trying to stay away from the "R word"'

[NSDukeFan]

I wouldn’t waste time with 1999. That team ran teams out of the gym and had 5-10 minutes of garbage time per game. In competitive games, it was a 7-man rotation.

Similar story in 1998, with the additional contributing factors that Price was suspended for the first semester and Brand missed a huge chunk of the season with injury.

Also worth noting that 1998 had 7 McDonalds’ All-Americans, plus a college All-American (McLeod), plus another future All-American (Carrawell) plus a future All-ACC (Avery). The 1999 team had 7 McDs plus all-ACC Avery plus Carrawell. And they STILL trimmed the rotation to 7 in competitive games.

If you assume we will have multiple rotation guys miss more than 1/3 of the season or that we will run roughshod over college ball, then those seasons might be reference points. Otherwise, probably not.
I kind of hope the team will run roughshod over college ball every year, even moreso in 2010-11 and 2016-17.

Note: I didn’t realize how good Bagley would be and I don’t think anyone realized how good Zion would be.

[CDu]

Uh, a couple of canards here. First, Duke doesn't have "garbage time" -- all play is intense, evaluated and intended to be played at a high level. There is an exception -- the final minute or so when the walk-ons appear. Chick Hearn the former LA announcer coined the term to refer to the sloppy play when the NBA teams cleared the bench -- and it was and is sloppy. Virtually all minutes at Duke are "meaningful" and provide valuable experience for the players.

Second, the fact that K sometimes, but not always, plays fewer players in some late-season games is not terribly important, IMHO (where the H got smoked at that cigar bar in Tampa in 1999). It's the season-long experience that counts -- best measured, although not perfectly, by minutes played.

By the way, in the 1999 finals Duke played eight players, and the minutes by James (seven) and Burgess (six) were meaningful.

Kindly,
Sage
'Trying to stay away from the "R word"'

“All minutes are intense and meaningful” is a nice sales pitch. But it isn’t reality. If it was, you would see the the key players playing even in the last few minutes of 30+ point games in December. Garbage time does exist. When the game is no longer competitive, that is when the end of bench guys play. And in 1999, the Duke team had more of those non-competitive minutes than any other Duke team. Yes, the end of bench guys are asked to keep playing hard. But, no, it just isn’t the same thing in my opinion. It all depends on what you consider meaningful minutes or in the rotation I guess.

As for that title game, I would suggest that 6 and 7 minutes qualify as the 0.5 in the rotation we had a 7 or 7.5 man rotation in the competitive games that season. And again, those teams were two of the most talented Duke teams ever. 7 McD’s boys, not including All-Americans McLeod and Carrawell or All-ACC Avery.

I will be quite surprised if we suddenly start going 9-10 deep in double-digit minutes for the first time in Coach K’s career this coming year. If Jones, Reddish, and Williamson don’t miss 10 games this year, we probably have our typical 7 guys in double figure minutes plus an 8th in the 7-8 range. Those injuries and illness added ~400 minutes to the mix (~11 mpg).

[dukelifer]

I didn’t say as good as Bagley. I said comparable to Okafor and Carter.

That would be fine- but I would be shocked - if he is next season’s ACC player of the year. I have waiting to see him play with my own eyes- but he has been injured. Based on what is available on YouTube, I still am not sure if he is elite in any area. He is solid and big bodies with good feet do well. He may be a double double guy but closer to 10 and 10 than 20 and 10. I suspect he has more of an outside game than Marquis or Javin. But if you all think he will be Duke’s best player next year based on his ranking - then I will take your word on it.

[Troublemaker]

That would be fine- but I would be shocked - if he is next season’s ACC player of the year. I have waiting to see him play with my own eyes- but he has been injured. Based on what is available on YouTube, I still am not sure if he is elite in any area. He is solid and big bodies with good feet do well. He may be a double double guy but closer to 10 and 10 than 20 and 10. I suspect he has more of an outside game than Marquis or Javin. But if you all think he will be Duke’s best player next year based on his ranking - then I will take your word on it.

CDu didn't write either of the bolded statements as far as I can tell. We should try not to put words in people's mouths, if possible :-)

That said, I am somewhat with you in spirit. I think Vernon will start, BUT I can definitely see Javin finishing games ahead of him some of the time. Much like there was "Okafor Theory" back in 2015, there will likely be "Carey Theory" next season when it becomes obvious that Javin's defense completes the team better than Vernon's offense much of the time.

[sagegrouse]

“All minutes are intense and meaningful” is a nice sales pitch. But it isn’t reality. If it was, you would see the the key players playing even in the last few minutes of 30+ point games in December. Garbage time does exist. When the game is no longer competitive, that is when the end of bench guys play. And in 1999, the Duke team had more of those non-competitive minutes than any other Duke team. Yes, the end of bench guys are asked to keep playing hard. But, no, it just isn’t the same thing in my opinion. It all depends on what you consider meaningful minutes or in the rotation I guess.

As for that title game, I would suggest that 6 and 7 minutes qualify as the 0.5 in the rotation we had a 7 or 7.5 man rotation in the competitive games that season. And again, those teams were two of the most talented Duke teams ever. 7 McD’s boys, not including All-Americans McLeod and Carrawell or All-ACC Avery.

I will be quite surprised if we suddenly start going 9-10 deep in double-digit minutes for the first time in Coach K’s career this coming year. If Jones, Reddish, and Williamson don’t miss 10 games this year, we probably have our typical 7 guys in double figure minutes plus an 8th in the 7-8 range. Those injuries and illness added ~400 minutes to the mix (~11 mpg).

You have a point, and there is an answer to it.

But let's start with "garbage time. The concept of "garbage time" as any time when a game is out of reach is dead wrong. "Garbage time" is the time at the very end of games, where the walk-ons are in the game or the end of the NBA bench and no one cares. Chick Hearn coined the term (or, at least, he used it regularly int he 1970's when I was living in LA). This transmogrification of the term to appli much more broadly then enables those who use it to totally devalue the minutes played then. That's wrong -- especially at Duke. What I have noticed is that Coach K, rather then "run in the blue team" with five+ minutes left, substitutes one-by-one so that, even in last few minutes there is usually a starter on the floor. These minutes, which seem to be carefully graded by the coaches are how those not playing 20 minutes a game learn Duke basketball. That's why, with a record of 32-6, the leading players average 30-35 minutes per game. It's also why players get pulled for mistakes in the last few minutes of games.

So, when you say that the key players should play later in the game if the minutes are "meaningful," some of them do.

Even at that, Duke is not going to have more than eight or nine players who are on the court for serious minutes (ten or so per game). This year, I would give a battlefield commission to Jordan Goldwire with 301 minutes (eight MPG) because he played at such important times in the most critical games of the season. That would give us nine players making significant contributions; I admit that fortunes shifted, adversely affecting Jack and AOC in some of the later games, but they had plenty of action in conference and other important games for Duke.

Anyway, those are my "garbage" thoughts today.

Kedsy and I have a difference of view as to the importance of the "minimum rotation" that seems to arise later in the season, usually for only a few games. I think that stressing these few players and dubbing them as the "only ones in the rotation" is unnecessarily restrictive and tends to understate the contribution of players who rally do get significant court time against serious opposition.

Hey, I'm easy. although I won't yield on "garbage time," I am perfectly happy to let others define "in the rotation" however they wish. I'll just avoid the term.

[kcduke75]

Did Duke get Matthew Hurt? Cannot tell from this thread. (he'll average 31 minutes per game, excluding garbage time)

[UrinalCake]

Yes, but have we factored in our annual foot, knee and other leg injuries in the frontcourt yet? I bet we'll need every one of our guys next season...

In all seriousness, injuries are part of the game and I think our team will be well-prepared to absorb a guy being out for a few weeks. Tre is the only irreplaceable player. We obviously hope to avoid any major injuries to our key guys, but our teams the past two seasons were perilously brittle and I’m looking forward to having more depth. It’s incredibly stressful knowing that having one starter get a cold or sprain an ankle means our whole game plan goes in the tank.

[MChambers]

Did Duke get Matthew Hurt? Cannot tell from this thread. (he'll average 31 minutes per game, excluding garbage time)

He committed to Duke, but Scottie Pippen looked at the awesome videos posted here by Troublemaker and is now telling Hurt to sit out the season to get ready for the NBA.

[OldPhiKap]

Did Duke get Matthew Hurt? Cannot tell from this thread. (he'll average 31 minutes per game, excluding garbage time)

I’ve long lost that about which we are arguing. Can I offer an opinion on Sylvia Hatchell’s challenged comments here, or no?

[lotusland]

Did Duke get Matthew Hurt? Cannot tell from this thread. (he'll average 31 minutes per game, excluding garbage time)

I think under 30 is a safe bet based on who we have back but 29 mpg would still indicate that he’s an extremely good freshman. He could struggle a little on defense, for instance, and still play 20-25 with Jav playing a little more as well as Jack occasionally at the 4.

[devildeac]

[QUOTE=dukelifer;1157738]

Can you retire a jersey and redshirt it at the same time???

Only if you burn it first. :rolleyes:

[devildeac]

I’ve long lost that about which we are arguing. Can I offer an opinion on Sylvia Hatchell’s challenged comments here, or no?

Wrong thread. That would be the Ymm, Beer thread...

:rolleyes:

[dukelifer]

CDu didn't write either of the bolded statements as far as I can tell. We should try not to put words in people's mouths, if possible :-)

That said, I am somewhat with you in spirit. I think Vernon will start, BUT I can definitely see Javin finishing games ahead of him some of the time. Much like there was "Okafor Theory" back in 2015, there will likely be "Carey Theory" next season when it becomes obvious that Javin's defense completes the team better than Vernon's offense much of the time.

Well he did say somewhere between Okafor and Carter which is a pretty darn good player and Okafor was ACC player of the year. I am excited to see the kid play and I am hoping he is excellent. I have seen big guys take a while to figure it out. Carey is supposed to be a good shooter and that may help him on O - but D around the hoop is not easy. Big guys can get into foul trouble easily. Bolden came to Duke ranked as 11 and he was in an excellent class of players. Bolden has taken a while to find his game. Assuming he is at Duke next year- I expect even more improvement next year. Javin also has greatly improved. He has been foul prone but got better at the end of the year and understands the D. Carey will not have an open lane to play the most minutes. Carey is not overwhelmingly long or athletic. The senior big guys are going to compete and they know a thing or two.

[CDu]

Well he did say somewhere between Okafor and Carter which is a pretty darn good player and Okafor was ACC player of the year. I am excited to see the kid play and I am hoping he is excellent. I have seen big guys take a while to figure it out. Carey is supposed to be a good shooter and that may help him on O - but D around the hoop is not easy. Big guys can get into foul trouble easily. Bolden came to Duke ranked as 11 and he was in an excellent class of players. Bolden has taken a while to find his game. Assuming he is at Duke next year- I expect even more improvement next year. Javin also has greatly improved. He has been foul prone but got better at the end of the year and understands the D. Carey will not have an open lane to play the most minutes. Carey is not overwhelmingly long or athletic. The senior big guys are going to compete and they know a thing or two.

I also didn’t say somewhere between Okafor and Carter. I said comparable to Okafor and Carter. As in, could be similar in production to either, could be less than, but close to, either. I think he will be a no-doubt starter and double-digits scorer. He is way more skilled offensively - both inside and out - than either DeLaurier or Bolden. I don’t know if he will be 1st Team All-ACC or not all-ACC, but I am confident he will be better than our other center options.

[dukelifer]

I also didn’t say somewhere between Okafor and Carter. I said comparable to Okafor and Carter. As in, could be similar in production to either, could be less than, but close to, either. I think he will be a no-doubt starter and double-digits scorer. He is way more skilled offensively - both inside and out - than either DeLaurier or Bolden. I don’t know if he will be 1st Team All-ACC or not all-ACC, but I am confident he will be better than our other center options.

That is fair. One question- any knowledge about his defensive chops? Is he known as a very good defender?

[lotusland]

I also didn’t say somewhere between Okafor and Carter. I said comparable to Okafor and Carter. As in, could be similar in production to either, could be less than, but close to, either. I think he will be a no-doubt starter and double-digits scorer. He is way more skilled offensively - both inside and out - than either DeLaurier or Bolden. I don’t know if he will be 1st Team All-ACC or not all-ACC, but I am confident he will be better than our other center options.

I think it’s too soon to tell. Jav and Bolden are going to play. Makes sense to not pair the frosh together. Imo, pairing Bolden with Hurt and Jav with Carey makes a lot of sense. Jav can defend the 4 better. I just think if you want this team to be a championship caliber team in March, it’s not going to happen with just Tre and these freshmen. We’re going to maximize our veterans and the veteran strength on this team will be the front court with Jack, Jav and Marques.

[wsb3]

I just think if you want this team to be a championship caliber team in March, it’s not going to happen with just Tre and these freshmen. We’re going to maximize our veterans

I agree..

[CDu]

That is fair. One question- any knowledge about his defensive chops? Is he known as a very good defender?

Defensively he falls more in the Carter realm. He is known for his offense, and not known one way or the other on defense. He IS very mobile for a center, which is good. How well that translates to defensive effectiveness remains to be seen.

[roywhite]

Anyone else think Matthew Hurt may lead the 2019-20 Blue Devils in scoring? Fellow Minnesotan Tre Jones should be able to get Hurt the ball in good positions, and Hurt can be effective near the basket, and out to 3-point range.

My fearless forecast has him at around 17 pts ppg to lead a balanced roster.

[CDu]

Anyone else think Matthew Hurt may lead the 2019-20 Blue Devils in scoring? Fellow Minnesotan Tre Jones should be able to get Hurt the ball in good positions, and Hurt can be effective near the basket, and out to 3-point range.

My fearless forecast has him at around 17 pts ppg to lead a balanced roster.

That is certainly a reasonable guess in my opinion. I definitely think he'll be in the hunt for the team's scoring title. The kid can shoot/score from anywhere.

[Dukehk]

Anyone else think Matthew Hurt may lead the 2019-20 Blue Devils in scoring? Fellow Minnesotan Tre Jones should be able to get Hurt the ball in good positions, and Hurt can be effective near the basket, and out to 3-point range.

My fearless forecast has him at around 17 pts ppg to lead a balanced roster.

Balanced roster. Music to my ears.

All signs point to a more balanced team in which we don't heavily rely on one or two players. Most of our best teams are constructed in this manner. However, I thought we would be balanced last year and we were for maybe the beginning part, then for some reason we went away from that culminating in the ending which we went iso ball with two guys.

Here is hoping that Carey, Hurt, Tre, Moore and Boogie all average double figures, bolstered by significant contributions from Jack, Ques, Jav, Baker and AOC.

[wsb3]

I agree..

Last edited by pfrduke; Today at 09:19 AM


Thank you for the edit. I probably should not post on my phone until the coffee has opened my eyes enough to see those characters that keep getting smaller. Later I caught my mistake when I looked at my computer and it was too late to fix. Again thanks.

[Troublemaker]

This morning, well-respected DraftExpress/ESPN released a 2020 mock draft. It's a pay article, unfortunately: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/26575642/2020-nba-mock-draft-new-top-three-prospects-latest-intel

In the writeup for Hurt, whom they project in the lottery, there is this line:
""Hurt is bouncy off two feet, shows some budding instincts defensively and looks like a pretty good passer as well, giving him more versatility than your typical standstill shooter."

As the narrative about Hurt among Duke fans changes from "He will suck defensively because...reasons" to "Not an ideal physical talent, but quick recognition / instincts and underrated athleticism might very well make him effective on D", never forget who pointed this out to you guys first. And Draft Express didn't even provide any nice GIFs of his quick recognition / instincts and underrated athleticism.

[UrinalCake]

Maybe I’m just a pessimist, but I interpret “shows some budding instincts defensively” to mean he is not a good defender. Just like if someone says “his shot is improving” then that means the guy is not a good shooter.

[kAzE]

Maybe I’m just a pessimist, but I interpret “shows some budding instincts defensively” to mean he is not a good defender. Just like if someone says “his shot is improving” then that means the guy is not a good shooter.

Yeah, I was going to say this. And "budding instincts" is pretty much about as little praise as you could possibly give. He might eventually become a passable defender, but the word "budding" really just means the development of that skill is in it's infancy stages, and "instincts" rather than tangibles, like strength, lateral quickness, rim protection, etc. isn't really saying much.

The kid is obviously really skinny and he's very tall, which doesn't help him move his feet quickly, or bang effectively with 22 year old power forwards. He could surprise and be decent on defense next year, but I think the ceiling is something like a skinnier Ryan Kelly, who eventually became a very good defender, because of how smart he was. But let's not carried away by a 2020 NBA draft scouting report. Draft scouting is all about potential, not what we are likely to get in the 2019-2020 college basketball season.

[Troublemaker]

Maybe I’m just a pessimist, but I interpret “shows some budding instincts defensively” to mean he is not a good defender. Just like if someone says “his shot is improving” then that means the guy is not a good shooter.

Well, I suppose anything is possible. Most likely they meant it as a compliment, and it's possible they noticed some of the same things I noticed.


Yeah, I was going to say this. And "budding instincts" is pretty much about as little praise as you could possibly give. He might eventually become a passable defender, but the word "budding" really just means the development of that skill is in it's infancy stages, and "instincts" rather than tangibles, like strength, lateral quickness, rim protection, etc. isn't really saying much.

The kid is obviously really skinny and he's very tall, which doesn't help him move his feet quickly, or bang effectively with 22 year old power forwards. He could surprise and be decent on defense next year, but I think the ceiling is something like a skinnier Ryan Kelly, who eventually became a very good defender, because of how smart he was. But let's not carried away by a 2020 NBA draft scouting report. Draft scouting is all about potential, not what we are likely to get in the 2019-2020 college basketball season.

lol, I'm not exactly getting carried away here. I evaluated him independently as having nice defensive instincts, and I thought it was noteworthy that a respected site like Draft Express also mentioned instincts. Your mileage of course may vary.

[kAzE]

lol, I'm not exactly getting carried away here. I evaluated him independently as having nice defensive instincts, and I thought it was noteworthy that a respected site like Draft Express also mentioned instincts. Your mileage of course may vary.

That's all fair. I don't think he will suck, I'm just skeptical that he's likely to be anything close to as good on defense as Javin, Jack, or Marques in his freshman year. But it's definitely a positive that he has good instincts.

This is all speculation anyways. We'll find out soon enough.

[Troublemaker]

That's all fair. I don't think he will suck, I'm just skeptical that he's likely to be anything close to as good on defense as Javin, Jack, or Marques in his freshman year. But it's definitely a positive that he has good instincts.

This is all speculation anyways. We'll find out soon enough.

I've never argued that he will be as good as the seniors on defense. I've had a much lower bar to clear, since Duke fans across the internet have automatically assumed that Matthew will suck on defense just by looking at him. That's my true fight, and I believe I've made strides. Apparently.

[lotusland]

Well, I suppose anything is possible. Most likely they meant it as a compliment, and it's possible they noticed some of the same things I noticed.



lol, I'm not exactly getting carried away here. I evaluated him independently as having nice defensive instincts, and I thought it was noteworthy that a respected site like Draft Express also mentioned instincts. Your mileage of course may vary.

Bagley and Parker were bouncier and Okafor was much more physically ready but they were all sub par defenders as freshmen. RJ wasn’t great either. None of those budding abilities will tell him where to be on the court. He doesn’t have Zion/Cam/Tre physical advantages. It’s not a knock to say he’ll be a typical freshman on defense and Jack White will probably have to shove him into position regularly.

[Troublemaker]

Bagley and Parker were bouncier and Okafor was much more physically ready but they were all sub par defenders as freshmen. RJ wasn’t great either. None of those budding abilities will tell him where to be on the court. He doesn’t have Zion/Cam/Tre physical advantages. It’s not a knock to say he’ll be a typical freshman on defense and Jack White will probably have to shove him into position regularly.

Actually, I expect him to be in the right positions most of the time. My concern would be that an offensive player "goes through" him anyway, despite him being in the right position, because of lack of strength. But overall, I think he's going to be at least solid on defense, probably good.

[sagegrouse]

With respect to defense by Hurt (or Carey or Moore or Ellis), it's also team defense -- talking, positioning, switching, hedging, and lots of other stuff that needs to be learned, regardless of the player's one-on-one defensive capabilities. This is one reason I am hoping we have a lot of experience on the roster next year, and I'd like to see Javin and Marques return.

[J4Kop99]

With respect to defense by Hurt (or Carey or Moore or Ellis), it's also team defense -- talking, positioning, switching, hedging, and lots of other stuff that needs to be learned, regardless of the player's one-on-one defensive capabilities. This is one reason I am hoping we have a lot of experience on the roster next year, and I'd like to see Javin and Marques return.

Exactly. I would say this past year was an outlier in terms of our defensive performance. Tre is an exceptional on-ball defender and Zion is one of the most unique defenders in recent memory. They can patch up so many holes on their own. In most cases, young teams struggle for the reasons Sagegrouse mentions above...

Next year should have a nice blend of young and "old" -with a ton of athleticism and size- providing us with enough to be a strong defensive team. We know we have Tre and that is one hell of a start.

At least one of Bolden/Javin returning will provide a strong bookend.

[Kedsy]

Exactly. I would say this past year was an outlier in terms of our defensive performance. ... In most cases, young teams struggle for the reasons Sagegrouse mentions above...

I don't think it was an outlier at all. Since KenPom started ranking defenses in 2002, measuring youth by percentage of minutes played by freshmen, five of Duke's six youngest teams were top 15 defenses (and seven of Duke's nine youngest teams were top 16 defenses). Of course it's also true that five of Duke's six least young teams were top 10 defenses. Nonetheless, I think the "wisdom" that freshmen can't play defense (or that "young teams struggle" on defense) is a bit of a canard. The truth is teams with good defensive players play good defense.

With Tre (who has a shot at national defensive player of the year) and Wendell (who has a defensive reputation coming out of high school), and assuming Javin and/or Marques return, along with Jack and Jordan off the bench, our defense should be pretty good once again. If Vernon and Matthew (and maybe Cassius) are defensive contributors, then I expect our defense will be outstanding.



Year %frosh NCAAT PomDRank
2018 67.5% 8 9
2019 61.0% 8 6
2015 50.0% 1 11
2016 46.8% 16 86
2003 37.3% 16 15
2007 36.5% 64 6
2017 33.5% 32 47
2006 32.5% 16 16
2008 26.4% 32 7
2012 23.8% 64 79
2013 23.6% 8 26
2014 19.8% 64 86
2004 15.8% 4 3
2010 14.8% 1 5
2005 12.3% 16 2
2011 10.9% 16 9
2009 10.5% 16 28
2002 9.7% 16 1

[Nugget]

I don't think it was an outlier at all. Since KenPom started ranking defenses in 2002, measuring youth by percentage of minutes played by freshmen, five of Duke's six youngest teams were top 15 defenses (and seven of Duke's nine youngest teams were top 16 defenses). Of course it's also true that five of Duke's six least young teams were top 10 defenses. Nonetheless, I think the "wisdom" that freshmen can't play defense (or that "young teams struggle" on defense) is a bit of a canard. The truth is teams with good defensive players play good defense.

Calipari has also been able to fairly consistently get one-and-done dominated Kentucky teams to play good (sometimes very good) man-to-man defense, per KenPom's D rankings since 2009-2010: #6, #16, #7, #88 (when they fell apart after Nerlens Noel got hurt), #32, #1, #39, #7, #22, and #8.

[lotusland]

I don't think it was an outlier at all. Since KenPom started ranking defenses in 2002, measuring youth by percentage of minutes played by freshmen, five of Duke's six youngest teams were top 15 defenses (and seven of Duke's nine youngest teams were top 16 defenses). Of course it's also true that five of Duke's six least young teams were top 10 defenses. Nonetheless, I think the "wisdom" that freshmen can't play defense (or that "young teams struggle" on defense) is a bit of a canard. The truth is teams with good defensive players play good defense.

With Tre (who has a shot at national defensive player of the year) and Wendell (who has a defensive reputation coming out of high school), and assuming Javin and/or Marques return, along with Jack and Jordan off the bench, our defense should be pretty good once again. If Vernon and Matthew (and maybe Cassius) are defensive contributors, then I expect our defense will be outstanding.



Year %frosh NCAAT PomDRank
2018 67.5% 8 9
2019 61.0% 8 6
2015 50.0% 1 11
2016 46.8% 16 86
2003 37.3% 16 15
2007 36.5% 64 6
2017 33.5% 32 47
2006 32.5% 16 16
2008 26.4% 32 7
2012 23.8% 64 79
2013 23.6% 8 26
2014 19.8% 64 86
2004 15.8% 4 3
2010 14.8% 1 5
2005 12.3% 16 2
2011 10.9% 16 9
2009 10.5% 16 28
2002 9.7% 16 1


Sorry no. Duke has not been comparable defensively in the one and done eta. No way.

[Kedsy]

Sorry no. Duke has not been comparable defensively in the one and done eta. No way.

Compared to what? Based on what?

[Sir Stealth]

The truth is teams with good defensive players play good defense.




Have definitely come around to this more and more, especially after last year. So much of the narrative that Duke is a defensive mess in the one-and-done era comes from just how much of a defensive wreck the 2014 Parker-Hood team was, but, as much as I love those guys, defense was not going to be a strength for them had they stayed through their senior years either, and they have been known as substandard defensive players in the NBA as well. 2013 had a spike in talented upperclassmen relative to the past decade at Duke, and they ultimately were helpless to stop Louisville's penetration in the Elite 8. Another bad defensive team, 2012, is known as a one-and-done team for the narrative because Rivers was such a key player on offense, but the rest of the rotation was basically upperclassmen, so the deficiency doesn't really seem like a one and done issue. Freshmen dominated 2015 finished strong on D as a team even though most of the players haven't been known as defensive stalwarts individually in their careers.

This isn't a completely black-and-white thing - some level of learning curve should be expected, especially for team defense - but a team with freshmen Shelden Williams, Tre Jones, Justise Winslow, Zion, etc. is probably going to be better defensively than a team with upperclassmen Greg Paulus, Jabari Parker, Luke Kennard, etc. (fortunately it's hard to find too many examples of poor defending Duke upperclassmen because historically most Duke players have been good defenders anyway).