OAD Deathmarch [Archive]

BD80

04-10-2019, 04:17 PM

PackMan97

04-10-2019, 04:32 PM

The really amusing point to me is that the NBAPA seems to be bargaining against its members interests. Allowing high school players in will cost some veterans their jobs.

I suppose in a manner that is true, but wouldn't those veterans have just lost their job the next year when those college freshmen took their jobs?

Besides, with the development of the G-League and actual two-way contracts and going to the G-League becoming a viable path to the NBA I really don't think this hurts veterans any more than getting another year older hurts them.

MartyClark

04-10-2019, 04:39 PM

NBA and NBAPA negotiating the demise of the OAD, allowing high school seniors in the 2022 draft.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26487509/nba-union-talk-end-one-done

This is causing the "value" of 2022 draft picks to inflate (twice the number of those with OAD talent in that draft).

The really amusing point to me is that the NBAPA seems to be bargaining against its members interests. Allowing high school players in will cost some veterans their jobs.

IMHO, the NBA should abolish the OAD rule now. Why wait until 2022?

The hard policy decisions fall to the NCAA. What happens if a H.S. senior does not get drafted and want to play college ball? What if he had an agent? Did he take endorsement money? Does he have to pay it back? How do the individual schools fairly compete for kids who wanted to go into the NBA and, maybe in late June, get the opportunity to recruit these kids?

The NBA, collectively, has little to lose by allowing H.S. kids to enter the draft. Any individual team may make a mistake and may have benefited from drafting a kid who played a year of college. With the advent of summer basketball, elite H.S. teams, the NBA teams have plenty of opportunity to see H.S. kids competing against elite talent. The NBA team's staff and scouts get paid big money to evaluate talent. I don't see any reason to protect them from a bad decision.

I really liked Duke's crop of one and dones this year. Individually, they seem like good guys. At the same time, I'm tired of the charade. These kids stay less than a full academic year at Duke and are focused on their NBA career. Nothing wrong with their perspective, they would all prefer to go immediately to the NBA but can't. They aren't really students if they don't even complete a 2nd semester.

I love college basketball. I've really liked most of the Duke OAD guys. It doesn't feel right anymore to pretend these guys are students or that they have anything other than a short allegiance to Duke.

I'm probably too cranky. In all honesty, I'd probably be less cranky if Duke won this year.

CDu

04-10-2019, 05:01 PM

IMHO, the NBA should abolish the OAD rule now. Why wait until 2022?

The hard policy decisions fall to the NCAA. What happens if a H.S. senior does not get drafted and want to play college ball? What if he had an agent? Did he take endorsement money? Does he have to pay it back? How do the individual schools fairly compete for kids who wanted to go into the NBA and, maybe in late June, get the opportunity to recruit these kids?

The NBA, collectively, has little to lose by allowing H.S. kids to enter the draft. Any individual team may make a mistake and may have benefited from drafting a kid who played a year of college. With the advent of summer basketball, elite H.S. teams, the NBA teams have plenty of opportunity to see H.S. kids competing against elite talent. The NBA team's staff and scouts get paid big money to evaluate talent. I don't see any reason to protect them from a bad decision.

I really liked Duke's crop of one and dones this year. Individually, they seem like good guys. At the same time, I'm tired of the charade. These kids stay less than a full academic year at Duke and are focused on their NBA career. Nothing wrong with their perspective, they would all prefer to go immediately to the NBA but can't. They aren't really students if they don't even complete a 2nd semester.

I love college basketball. I've really liked most of the Duke OAD guys. It doesn't feel right anymore to pretend these guys are students or that they have anything other than a short allegiance to Duke.

I'm probably too cranky. In all honesty, I'd probably be less cranky if Duke won this year.

Saying the NBA has nothing to lose is false. As you yourself note, teams run a greater risk of drafting a bust with less information against better comp. Also, the NBA benefits greatly from the free marketing of its rookies by virtue of them starring in college. Take Anthony Davis, for example. He was a terrific high school senior. But he didn’t catch the public eye until carrying UK to a title. The free advertising of the talent pool is a huge profit maker for the NBA.

Now, there are downsides. But it isn’t like the NBA is assuming no risk in going back to letting HS kids go pro.

MartyClark

04-10-2019, 05:05 PM

Saying the NBA has nothing to lose is false. As you yourself note, teams run a greater risk of drafting a bust with less information against better comp. Also, the NBA benefits greatly from the free marketing of its rookies by virtue of them starring in college. Take Anthony Davis, for example. He was a terrific high school senior. But he didn’t catch the public eye until carrying UK to a title. The free advertising of the talent pool is a huge profit maker for the NBA.

Now, there are downsides. But it isn’t like the NBA is assuming no risk in going back to letting HS kids go pro.

The NBA has little to lose if a H.S. draft pick or two don't pan out. An individual team may. The draft is a bit of a crap shoot anyhow. Let the individual teams run the risk of drafting a H.S. senior. The NBA thrives even if an individual team makes a bad draft pick. Each team can determine their own risk-benefit analysis on any kid, whether a H.S. senior, a Euro, a college two year player etc.

Who cares about protecting an NBA team from a bad draft choice? I don't.

HereBeforeCoachK

04-10-2019, 05:10 PM

The really amusing point to me is that the NBAPA seems to be bargaining against its members interests. Allowing high school players in will cost some veterans their jobs.

Precisely the reason this rule was EVER the rule....

MCFinARL

04-10-2019, 05:23 PM

IMHO, the NBA should abolish the OAD rule now. Why wait until 2022?

The hard policy decisions fall to the NCAA. What happens if a H.S. senior does not get drafted and want to play college ball? What if he had an agent? Did he take endorsement money? Does he have to pay it back? How do the individual schools fairly compete for kids who wanted to go into the NBA and, maybe in late June, get the opportunity to recruit these kids?

The NBA, collectively, has little to lose by allowing H.S. kids to enter the draft. Any individual team may make a mistake and may have benefited from drafting a kid who played a year of college. With the advent of summer basketball, elite H.S. teams, the NBA teams have plenty of opportunity to see H.S. kids competing against elite talent. The NBA team's staff and scouts get paid big money to evaluate talent. I don't see any reason to protect them from a bad decision.

I really liked Duke's crop of one and dones this year. Individually, they seem like good guys. At the same time, I'm tired of the charade. These kids stay less than a full academic year at Duke and are focused on their NBA career. Nothing wrong with their perspective, they would all prefer to go immediately to the NBA but can't. They aren't really students if they don't even complete a 2nd semester.

I love college basketball. I've really liked most of the Duke OAD guys. It doesn't feel right anymore to pretend these guys are students or that they have anything other than a short allegiance to Duke.

I'm probably too cranky. In all honesty, I'd probably be less cranky if Duke won this year.

I realize it's a minor point, but are we sure they don't even complete a 2nd semester? It's my impression, based on various things I have read over the years, that a lot of Duke one and dones, if not all, do finish the academic year. I'm virtually positive Kyrie did (and in fact, he did the next fall semester as well during the lockout), and I think I read somewhere just recently that Zion said he is planning to enroll in some summer classes to make a little more progress before leaving school--although I admit I am unable to find a link to this now.

CDu

04-10-2019, 05:31 PM

The NBA has little to lose if a H.S. draft pick or two don't pan out. An individual team may. The draft is a bit of a crap shoot anyhow. Let the individual teams run the risk of drafting a H.S. senior. The NBA thrives even if an individual team makes a bad draft pick. Each team can determine their own risk-benefit analysis on any kid, whether a H.S. senior, a Euro, a college two year player etc.

Who cares about protecting an NBA team from a bad draft choice? I don't.

“The NBA” is a collection of teams. If the teams care, “the NBA” cares.

Also, you have conveniently ignored my second point. The NBA absolutely profits from the name recognition derived from players playing in college.

Nugget

04-10-2019, 05:34 PM

I realize it's a minor point, but are we sure they don't even complete a 2nd semester? It's my impression, based on various things I have read over the years, that a lot of Duke one and dones, if not all, do finish the academic year. I'm virtually positive Kyrie did (and in fact, he did the next fall semester as well during the lockout), and I think I read somewhere just recently that Zion said he is planning to enroll in some summer classes to make a little more progress before leaving school--although I admit I am unable to find a link to this now.

I believe that all or most of the recent Duke one and dones have finished the academic year. I think that, if they didn't, it could negatively affect Duke's APR rankings.

I'm reading between the lines, but it would appear that there is at least an implicit quid pro quo that in return for Duke public supporting their going out as one and done the players will finish the school year so as not to harm Duke's APR given the potential consequences of lost scholarships or even, in U.Conn's case, being ruled ineligible for the Tournament in 2012-13.

uh_no

04-10-2019, 05:36 PM

I realize it's a minor point, but are we sure they don't even complete a 2nd semester? It's my impression, based on various things I have read over the years, that a lot of Duke one and dones, if not all, do finish the academic year. I'm virtually positive Kyrie did (and in fact, he did the next fall semester as well during the lockout), and I think I read somewhere just recently that Zion said he is planning to enroll in some summer classes to make a little more progress before leaving school--although I admit I am unable to find a link to this now.

if they don't finish the semester, it's a hit to the APR. Given duke's very good APR, i would assume almost all of them finish the semester.....though perhaps with summer classes and fall semester, they can get enough done to fulfill the freshman requirements without finishing spring classes.

Given the benefit of having Duke on your side as you try to make the jump, which would presumably evaporate should a player stop doing their classwork, there is still some incentive to do whatever work for the last few weeks remains.

I like to think the program is comprised of guys who are willing to work at accomplishing something academically because they are able, even if they could bail, and I'm sure the program would not welcome a player who it thought would not complete the first years' coursework. There are definitely recent players who I might be skeptical would uphold their end of the bargain, though.

Edouble

04-10-2019, 05:37 PM

Saying the NBA has nothing to lose is false. As you yourself note, teams run a greater risk of drafting a bust with less information against better comp. Also, the NBA benefits greatly from the free marketing of its rookies by virtue of them starring in college. Take Anthony Davis, for example. He was a terrific high school senior. But he didn’t catch the public eye until carrying UK to a title. The free advertising of the talent pool is a huge profit maker for the NBA.

Now, there are downsides. But it isn’t like the NBA is assuming no risk in going back to letting HS kids go pro.

Yes, NBA teams face a far greater risk in drafting a bust without the one and done rule. The NBA has a lot to lose here.

Robert Swift, Sebastian Telfair, probably Kwame Brown are all guys who might have been exposed as bit versus college competition. It's hard to know how they would have done in the NCAAs, but it's hard to imagine they would have been drafted as high as they were, particularly Swift and Brown.

I feel like your second point is a little weak though, and it's one I have heard before. An NBA rookie can skyrocket to the public eye with zero college marketing prior. If you are a star in the league, like Anthony Davis, it will be known quickly, regardless of the exposure you got in college. Really good example of this is Luka Doncic this (rookie) season. If you are a star in college, but don't deliver in the pros, your college accomplishments won't mean much anyway, eg Mateen Cleaves, Emeka Okafor.

MartyClark

04-10-2019, 05:47 PM

“The NBA” is a collection of teams. If the teams care, “the NBA” cares.

Also, you have conveniently ignored my second point. The NBA absolutely profits from the name recognition derived from players playing in college.

Please do me a favor and don't be condescending. I have not "conveniently ignored" any part of your post. I'd like to have a discussion without any "need to win" mentality.

The NBA, as a whole, ultimately benefits from great, exciting players. The Greek Freak didn't play in college and he is a big star and drawing card. Great college players ultimately have fan appeal based on their NBA performance, not their college pedigree. Look at the current NBA drawing cards. Some had a good college career. Some didn't play in college. Some are from Europe. Some didn't shine in college.

NBA players have appeal based on their NBA performance. Can we agree on this or do we need to engage in senseless quibbling?

-jk

04-10-2019, 05:55 PM

I think the collective "NBA" is still shuddering at Kwame Brown as #1. (Oops, Mike!)

I also think the under-18 basketball system would easily filter him out today.

That system might also miss a bit on a Zion, though. He'd still be a lottery pick, but late.

Damned if they do. Damned if they don't. And the NCAA is stuck holding the bags, and fairly powerless.

(I really hope K and Adam are talking, both really sharp guys...)

-jk

JasonEvans

04-10-2019, 05:57 PM

-jk

04-10-2019, 06:01 PM

Is it wrong of me to count on my fingers and gnash my teeth are the revelation that not having Joey Baker in 2022-23 is suddenly pretty significant. Good veteran players just became a HUGE priority in the 2022-23 season.

-Jason "I also will not be at all surprised if Coach K decides 2022 is his last season. He loves coaching the special talents... those players will not be available to him any more thanks to this rule" Evans

Will his grandson still be on the team? Will Boeheim still be coaching?

Family and competitiveness. They drive K!

Keep on keeping on! (Please? Duke can keep you in knees and hips!)

-jk

SoCalDukeFan

04-10-2019, 06:07 PM

CDu

04-10-2019, 06:19 PM

Please do me a favor and don't be condescending. I have not "conveniently ignored" any part of your post. I'd like to have a discussion without any "need to win" mentality.

The NBA, as a whole, ultimately benefits from great, exciting players. The Greek Freak didn't play in college and he is a big star and drawing card. Great college players ultimately have fan appeal based on their NBA performance, not their college pedigree. Look at the current NBA drawing cards. Some had a good college career. Some didn't play in college. Some are from Europe. Some didn't shine in college.

NBA players have appeal based on their NBA performance. Can we agree on this or do we need to engage in senseless quibbling?

More than happy to have a discussion. And I agree that - in the long run - stars make the league the money. But there is most certainly a short-term benefit in marketing college stars right away. A Gary Trent Portland jersey sells more this past year because Duke fans saw him. Same with Wendell Carter. If those two never become stars in the NBA, they had short-term value to the league due to their brief college exposure.

And as I noted, the NBA itself is just the collection of teams and their owners. So if teams are hurt by bad draft picks, the NBA is hurt by bad draft picks. Because NBA decisions are the decisions agreed upon by the super-majority of owners (and subsequently played by 50% of the players).

MartyClark

04-10-2019, 06:43 PM

More than happy to have a discussion. And I agree that - in the long run - stars make the league the money. But there is most certainly a short-term benefit in marketing college stars right away. A Gary Trent Portland jersey sells more this past year because Duke fans saw him. Same with Wendell Carter. If those two never become stars in the NBA, they had short-term value to the league due to their brief college exposure.

And as I noted, the NBA itself is just the collection of teams and their owners. So if teams are hurt by bad draft picks, the NBA is hurt by bad draft picks. Because NBA decisions are the decisions agreed upon by the super-majority of owners (and subsequently played by 50% of the players).

I'm equally happy to have a substantive discussion. Has Portland sold a single Gary Trent jersey this year? Unlikely. Wendell Carter, despite his injury, had NBA value this year. As a long term Bulls' fan, I don't think Wendell Carter's jersey sales, if any, had much to do with is one year Duke career.

The NBA is Darwinian. You can play at an NBA level or you can't. If you can't play, NBA fans don't care where you went to college or how well you did.

There are plenty of good NBA players, regardless of their college pedigree.

At this point, I would say that I'm not entirely sure what we are arguing about. We both, I think, love college basketball in general and, more specifically, Duke basketball. You and I have this in common.

I guess I have two points. First, I don't care about protecting NBA teams from bad decisions. Not my problem. Second, I think that young basketball players, like young hockey or baseball players, should have the opportunity to go pro if they are good enough. I don't like to see a high school kid make a bad decision but, again, I'd like to see a structure that gives them good advice. I hope they don't make bad decisions but I don't think we (the collective we) have any responsibility for kids we don't know.

We probably have more in common than our recent post suggest. Have a good evening.

CDu

04-10-2019, 07:00 PM

I'm equally happy to have a substantive discussion. Has Portland sold a single Gary Trent jersey this year? Unlikely. Wendell Carter, despite his injury, had NBA value this year. As a long term Bulls' fan, I don't think Wendell Carter's jersey sales, if any, had much to do with is one year Duke career.

The NBA is Darwinian. You can play at an NBA level or you can't. If you can't play, NBA fans don't care where you went to college or how well you did.

There are plenty of good NBA players, regardless of their college pedigree.

At this point, I would say that I'm not entirely sure what we are arguing about. We both, I think, love college basketball in general and, more specifically, Duke basketball. You and I have this in common.

I guess I have two points. First, I don't care about protecting NBA teams from bad decisions. Not my problem. Second, I think that young basketball players, like young hockey or baseball players, should have the opportunity to go pro if they are good enough. I don't like to see a high school kid make a bad decision but, again, I'd like to see a structure that gives them good advice. I hope they don't make bad decisions but I don't think we (the collective we) have any responsibility for kids we don't know.

We probably have more in common than our recent post suggest. Have a good evening.

I am also in favor of kids being allowed to go pro out of high school. 100%. I just disagreed with your assertion that the NBA has nothing to lose in the situation. There is a reason they went to the one and done model. It benefits the NBA at virtually no cost to them. Doesn’t make it the best system (certainly not for the players, and maybe not for the schools). But I think it is fair to acknowledge that doing away with the system would have some cost to the NBA.

wavedukefan70s

04-10-2019, 08:32 PM

I'd prefer they had to do atleast two years in college.i also believe they should be able to sign endorsements deals .if not atleast get a likeness rights check from the ncaa..if kyler murray can sign with baseball and still play football I dont see the big deal.

darthur

04-10-2019, 08:34 PM

I am also in favor of kids being allowed to go pro out of high school. 100%. I just disagreed with your assertion that the NBA has nothing to lose in the situation. There is a reason they went to the one and done model. It benefits the NBA at virtually no cost to them. Doesn’t make it the best system (certainly not for the players, and maybe not for the schools). But I think it is fair to acknowledge that doing away with the system would have some cost to the NBA.

One anecdotal example: I am a huge NBA fan and I watch it far more than college, especially since I don't live in eastern time anymore.

But the reason I first started watching the NBA was to cheer for my favorite Duke alums. Having NBA stars prove themselves in college or Europe is fantastic for the NBA -- it means all their stars come with an established fanbase, often people like me who wouldn't pay attention otherwise. And we absolutely do see this attachment to OADs too -- this board showed a ton of loyalty to Kyrie in the NBA playoffs threads for example. And don't you think people here are going to be excited to follow Zion? Without OAD, that wouldn't happen.