Way too early: So who is going to be good next year?

[Reddevil]

Other than Duke, who will contend next year? I hope this does not come off as a lazy post. Gone are the days when I would scour my magazines looking at who is returning for each team and how national recruiting is shaping up. Many of you are more on top of national trends than I. Is Villanova a player? I ask because the last five champs have been Duke, Nova, unc, Nova, UVA, ........?;)

So who are the big dogs for next season?

[mattman91]

Thanks for starting this. I was wondering the same thing this morning.

[nmduke2001]

Vegas already has odds out. Granted, odds aren't a great measure, but...

http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26473469/virginia-favored-repeat-2020-vegas-books

[CDu]

Other than Duke, who will contend next year? I hope this does not come off as a lazy post. Gone are the days when I would scour my magazines looking at who is returning for each team and how national recruiting is shaping up. Many of you are more on top of national trends than I. Is Villanova a player? I ask because the last five champs have been Duke, Nova, unc, Nova, UVA, ....?;)

So who are the big dogs for next season?

Still a lot to be determined with recruits, transfers, and early entry. Not many expected Texas Tech to turn into a Final Four team after losing some key pieces to last year's elite-8 team, but they added a couple of crucial grad transfers and Culver made the leap.

UVa could be really good next year (if Guy and Jerome return) or take a step back (if one or both leaves). They don't currently have replacements for those two guys, and those two are critical to UVa's success.

As of now, I don't expect Villanova to be great next year, even with a strong recruiting class. They are losing Paschall and Booth and their top recruit from last year (Quinerly) is leaving. I'd expect them to be sort of like this year: solid, but not a true contender. But, a few recruits/transfers could change that story too.

Memphis has the nation's top recruit coming, and has their foot in the door with a few other big names. If they land some of those guys, they should be interesting.

And Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, and UNC may all end up in the mix depending upon where the remaining recruits and the transfers wind up. MSU will be really good if Winston returns, as they will get healthier with Langford coming back and lose just Goins and McQuaid.

But, yeah, too early to tell until the rosters settle, and that won't happen for a couple of months yet.

[Natty_B]

Seth Davis has a top 25 on The Athletic. MSU is 1. Michigan 2. Duke 3.

[scottdude8]

The B1G should be loaded. MSU is obvious, but barring something unusual Michigan should return 4 of 5 starters, and its entire bench, from a team that started this year 17-0. Also of note is on that bench are members of Beilein’s best recruiting class ever, and historically his players make a big jump from freshman to sophomore year (considering how complex his offense is). Next year’s Wolverines could have the solutions to some of its biggest problems, most notably depth, waiting in the wings.

Besides the Michigan schools, Maryland will also be solid assuming they only lose Fernando from this year’s team. Even though they lose Ethan Happ, Wisconsin will still be Wisconsin... they already have another skilled 6-foot-10 center waiting in the wings, and this one can shoot the 3. I’ve seen Ohio State ranked highly in some of the way-to-early rankings, and while I’m less sold on that, Chris Holtmann has proven himself a great coach so I wouldn’t doubt them. Iowa is also a team that is lurking and is always a tough win no matter who is on the roster, and even without Carsen Edwards Purdue still has beasts in the paint.

Long story short, I think next year’s B1G could look a lot like the murderer’s row that the ACC was this season. Meanwhile, the ACC should be a lot more manageable with so much talent lost and no insane recruiting classes coming in (outside ours!). Conceivably, Duke’s path to a 1 seed could actually be easier this year than last even if we aren’t quite as talented a team... but that’s going past the point of no return for speculation!

[scottdude8]

Seth Davis has a top 25 on The Athletic. MSU is 1. Michigan 2. Duke 3.

That’s what I’ve been thinking for months now, and is making me so anxious for next season to start. I’m surprised so many places have Michigan outside the Top 5 with everything that should return.

[sagegrouse]

Well, Virginia fans I have talked to today think they are a shoo-in, since everyone returns except for Jack Salt. Hah! Dream on! I expect DeAndre is gone and maybe Jerome and/or Guy.

Kindly,
Sage
'Why couldn't UVa have "Kyle Jerome" and "Ty Guy?" I mean "Tie-Guy" would be worth millions just on the name'

[DUKIECB]

That’s what I’ve been thinking for months now, and is making me so anxious for next season to start. I’m surprised so many places have Michigan outside the Top 5 with everything that should return.What's the word on the street on Winston? I haven't heard much either way but as well as he played in the tournament wouldn't he be likely to be a mid 1st rounder and leave?

[CDu]

That’s what I’ve been thinking for months now, and is making me so anxious for next season to start. I’m surprised so many places have Michigan outside the Top 5 with everything that should return.

If Brazdeikis and Poole stay, Michigan should be very good. If either decides to go (along with Matthews), I think they take a big step back. If both go along with Matthews, they take a BIG step back.

[Jeffrey]

Well, Virginia fans I have talked to today think they are a shoo-in, since everyone returns except for Jack Salt.

They truly believe Hunter is returning?

[simplyluvin]

Still a lot to be determined with recruits, transfers, and early entry. Not many expected Texas Tech to turn into a Final Four team after losing some key pieces to last year's elite-8 team, but they added a couple of crucial grad transfers and Culver made the leap.

UVa could be really good next year (if Guy and Jerome return) or take a step back (if one or both leaves). They don't currently have replacements for those two guys, and those two are critical to UVa's success.

As of now, I don't expect Villanova to be great next year, even with a strong recruiting class. They are losing Paschall and Booth and their top recruit from last year (Quinerly) is leaving. I'd expect them to be sort of like this year: solid, but not a true contender. But, a few recruits/transfers could change that story too.

Memphis has the nation's top recruit coming, and has their foot in the door with a few other big names. If they land some of those guys, they should be interesting.

And Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, and UNC may all end up in the mix depending upon where the remaining recruits and the transfers wind up. MSU will be really good if Winston returns, as they will get healthier with Langford coming back and lose just Goins and McQuaid.

But, yeah, too early to tell until the rosters settle, and that won't happen for a couple of months yet.

Agree with you...I just don't see Nova being really good, much less elite next year. Also, if Jerome leaves, UVA will not be nearly as good. I think they can absorb Hunter leaving and still be elite, but not Jerome. FWIW, I think Jerome should leave now, as he helped his stock with a solid performance during the tournament. Not quite Tyus-like, but he really shined as a PG who can score in a variety of ways.

Like other posters here, I don't see that many elite (i.e., scary teams next year), although it is early. We could be elite if we land Hurt and our three 5-stars perform like OADs (e.g., efficient 15ppg+, solid D). UVA might be elite only if Jerome returns. MSU and Michigan may be scary. But honestly not much else. KU looks to get decimated with not a lot in the hopper. Even if Roy gets Cole, I don't see them as Top 10. UK, like us, might be elite depending on who they pick up between now and next season. If they get Cole or Hurt, then they will be really good.

[KandG]

The top ten teams in Seth Davis' early top 25:

1. Michigan State (assuming Winston stays)
2. Michigan (assuming Matthews is the only loss)
3. Duke (assuming Hurt commits)
4. Kentucky
5. Gonzaga (assuming Norvell and Tillie stay)
6. Auburn (assuming Harper and Okeke stay)
7. Virginia
8. Maryland
9. Florida State (assuming Kabengele stays)
10. Cincinnati

He also has UNC 13th, with the qualifier that they really need Cole Anthony badly.

Obviously, a lot in play, which is why we'll be seeing a lot of these "too-early" top 25 lists which will look dated in a month.

[scottdude8]

What's the word on the street on Winston? I haven't heard much either way but as well as he played in the tournament wouldn't he be likely to be a mid 1st rounder and leave?

People are speculating about him going pro because he hasn't explicitly said anything, but I would bet a pie he'll be back (but would also gladly pay if that bet loses, haha). He's a stellar college player, but I just don't think his game translates to the pros. He's very undersized for an NBA point guard at just 6 feet tall, and he doesn't have stellar athleticism (the colloquial term "old man's game" gets tossed around way too liberally lately, but that's how he gets a lot of his looks, and that just won't translate to the NBA). It wouldn't surprise me if he tested the waters, because as a junior there is really no negative consequence to doing so, and I would bet some team will give him a shot in the late 2nd round or on a two-way deal when he's done at MSU just because of his intangibles. But I'd expect him back.

Side note: the person who is more likely to end up going to the draft from the Spartans that no one is talking about is Nick Ward. People forget he tested the waters last year, and many MSU insiders thought he might actually go pro despite being a fringe second-round prospect because he was apparently quite frustrated with how he was used in Izzo's system. With the emergence of Xavier Tillman following Ward's injury, there just may not be a lot of PT available to Ward. It's possible that Izzo chooses to play a big lineup next year with both Ward and Tillman starting (essentially using Tillman to replace Goins), but that lineup would have a LOT of defensive limitations, not to mention congestion in the paint on offense. If Ward isn't OK with a super-sixth man role as a senior, he may test his luck in the draft for good this year.



If Brazdeikis and Poole stay, Michigan should be very good. If either decides to go (along with Matthews), I think they take a big step back. If both go along with Matthews, they take a BIG step back.

All three of those are very interesting cases. While every indication is Matthews is gone (he went through senior day, Beilein has said he expects him to go, etc.), he still is at best a fringe 2nd round pick. That, combined with the fact that despite how expected he is to leave there's been nothing official yet, leaves me thinking there's a non-zero chance he returns to go for glory. To clarify, it's a very minimal chance (you'd have to give me massive pie odds to take that bet!) but a chance nonetheless.

I expect Iggy back, as I think he has the most room for improvement in both his game and his draft stock. He fell victim to the "freshman wall" at times this year, no doubt exacerbated by the fact that he didn't face high level competition in Canada like most top recruits do here... with a full season as the No. 1 scoring option on a Top 10 team, he could easily vault himself into a secure first round pick. It's also worth noting again that, historically speaking, Beilein players take a huge leap from their freshman to sophomore year. Moe Wagner went from a 5 mpg bench player to a starter and potential second round pick in that span (and then became a first rounder with one more year). DJ Wilson (albeit with an extra redshirt year) went from someone playing only garbage time to a mid-first rounder in that span (and he's contributing off the bench for arguably the best team in the NBA in Milwaukee right now). Trey Burke, Nik Stauskas, and more had similar bumps to not only their game, but their NBA draft stock, in that span. Iggy arguably could make himself more money than anyone in a similar situation by returning.

Poole is the conundrum. He has the talent and the shot to be a productive NBA shooting guard, but his decision making and consistent effort on defense need work. Normally it'd be a no brainer that he'd be back, as he wouldn't even be a lock to get drafted in the second round this year. However, there's been some strange drama with his father getting frustrated with Michigan fans' frustration with his son on Twitter, and the scuttlebutt is that Poole has his eyes set on the NBA. Again, in normal circumstances I'd be quite confident he's returning as well, but there are some strange rumors and other outstanding circumstances that don't make that a done deal.

If all three (somehow!) come back, Michigan could have a claim over MSU as the preseason No. 1 (as they'd lose literally no one from last year's squad). If Matthews goes, they're a Top 5 team. If they lose one or both of Poole/Iggy, they're still a top 20 team and probably a B1G contender, but I agree it'd be a step back. That said, you can't underestimate the value of having senior leaders at PG and center, not to mention the fact that, almost like clockwork, Beilein takes a bench player or recruit that was an afterthought and turns them into a major contributor. Brandon Johns, Colin Castleton, and David DeJulius were all mid-to-high 4* recruits last year (and, along with Iggy and 3* Adrien Nunez made up one of the highest ranked recruiting classes at Michigan since the Fab Five), all fill prototypical roles in a Beilein offense (a large stretch 3/4 who can shoot in Johns' case, a mobile center with a decent shot in Castleton's case, and a fantastic ballhandling PG with great range in Dejulius' case), and all had moments where they flashed their potential this year, but they spent most of the season on the bench. If any or all of those three make the "Beilein jump", Michigan will be a contender regardless of NBA decisions.

[DavidBenAkiva]

It is way too early to tell who will be in the Top 10.

I know that Duke and Kentucky will be there. Michigan and Michigan State could be very good next year, too, but it really depends on who stays and who goes.

If Cassius Winston returns and Joshua Langford is healthy, I expect that MSU will begin the season at #1. If Charles Matthews and Iggy Brazdeikas (sp?) return, Michigan could be right there with Sparty.

I know people are going to want to put Virginia near the top, but I caution against that. Hunter is most certainly going to the NBA and I really think Ty Jerome will as well. Those are huge pieces to lose from this team. Kihei Clark will step in at point guard, Braxton Key at forward, and Jay Huff at center. The latter of those three might be an upgrade over the starter. But those are still big pieces to lose with little proven depth behind them. It will be a little like Villanova losing so many people from their 2018 National Title team. Can they replace all that production? I think UVA will be good next year and could be great if Jerome comes back. But if he does leave, top 15 is more likely for UVA. Defending National Champions rarely remain as competitive the following season.

Auburn will be a borderline Top 10 team, although losing Chuma Okeke for a significant portion of the season - if not the whole year - is a huge loss. They will also lose Bryce Brown.

Marquette will be among the Top 10 teams next year as they are not slated to lose anyone after a disappointing end to their 2019 season.

Maryland could be very good next year and freshman Jalen Smith announced he is returning. If Bruno Fernando returns, too, the Terps could be pushing Top 5.

I think UNC will show up in a number of Top 10 polls. I don't see it unless they get at least 2 more recruits and/or grad transfers. I'll just leave it at that.

Kansas might also be a Top 10 team, depending upon how things shake out. Their backcourt was very inexperienced this year but they are very talented. A healthy Azubuike should help.

[kAzE]

ESPN: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26464237/loaded-michigan-state-leads-way-too-early-top-25-2019-20
Sports Illustrated: https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/04/09/ncaa-basketball-rankings-early-top-25-kentucky-duke-michigan-state

Duke seems to be around #5 to #7 in these right now. We project to have a versatile and deep front court, but our guards are pretty iffy next year beyond Tre Jones. If RJ Hampton were to reclassify and commit to Duke, I could see us being the #1 team. That would be a dominant offensive team.

[scottdude8]

It is way too early to tell who will be in the Top 10.

I know that Duke and Kentucky will be there. Michigan and Michigan State could be very good next year, too, but it really depends on who stays and who goes.

If Cassius Winston returns and Joshua Langford is healthy, I expect that MSU will begin the season at #1. If Charles Matthews and Iggy Brazdeikas (sp?) return, Michigan could be right there with Sparty.

I know people are going to want to put Virginia near the top, but I caution against that. Hunter is most certainly going to the NBA and I really think Ty Jerome will as well. Those are huge pieces to lose from this team. Kihei Clark will step in at point guard, Braxton Key at forward, and Jay Huff at center. The latter of those three might be an upgrade over the starter. But those are still big pieces to lose with little proven depth behind them. It will be a little like Villanova losing so many people from their 2018 National Title team. Can they replace all that production? I think UVA will be good next year and could be great if Jerome comes back. But if he does leave, top 15 is more likely for UVA. Defending National Champions rarely remain as competitive the following season.

Auburn will be a borderline Top 10 team, although losing Chuma Okeke for a significant portion of the season - if not the whole year - is a huge loss. They will also lose Bryce Brown.

Marquette will be among the Top 10 teams next year as they are not slated to lose anyone after a disappointing end to their 2019 season.

Maryland could be very good next year and freshman Jalen Smith announced he is returning. If Bruno Fernando returns, too, the Terps could be pushing Top 5.

I think UNC will show up in a number of Top 10 polls. I don't see it unless they get at least 2 more recruits and/or grad transfers. I'll just leave it at that.

Kansas might also be a Top 10 team, depending upon how things shake out. Their backcourt was very inexperienced this year but they are very talented. A healthy Azubuike should help.

Agree 100%. Right now all we can do is put teams in general tiers, IMHO (it's why I'm resisting putting together my own "way-to-early Top 10" until we have some more info on NBA draft status and whatnot). We'll have a better idea in a week or so once the draft dominos start to fall any any transfers become more clear. But considering we have every right to be optimistic about our chances next year with Tre returning, there's no reason not to enjoy it a little bit, haha.

[NYBri]

ESPN: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26464237/loaded-michigan-state-leads-way-too-early-top-25-2019-20
Sports Illustrated: https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/04/09/ncaa-basketball-rankings-early-top-25-kentucky-duke-michigan-state

Duke seems to be around #5 to #7 in these right now. We project to have a versatile and deep front court, but our guards are pretty iffy next year beyond Tre Jones. If RJ Hampton were to reclassify and commit to Duke, I could see us being the #1 team. That would be a dominant offensive team.

When have I heard that before? :cool:

[kAzE]

When have I heard that before? :cool:

Well, we're pretty much always a top 10 offensive team. Coach K recruits offense first. With RJ Hampton, we would have a really good mix of playmakers, slashers, and outside shooting next year, surely good enough to be a top 5 offense. We're a bit light on playmaking without him, though.

However, there are likely some question marks at the defensive end.

[dukelifer]

They truly believe Hunter is returning?

If Hunter stays- Bennett will overtake Roy in convincing players to hang around the program. Roy has certainly lost his touch. Hunter is a legit top 10 pick.

[kako]

Way to early to talk about this intelligently. Signings aren't done, coaches haven't finished chasing the money, underclassmen are still considering the draft, and so forth. I scanned Davis' article in The Athletic, which was full of "if this", "if that", "depends on", etc.

All I know is that Duke will be ranked top 5 again, with or without Hurt. Whether Carolina will be ranked as high totally depends on getting Cole Anthony.

9F

[richardjackson199]

Way to early to talk about this intelligently. Signings aren't done, coaches haven't finished chasing the money, underclassmen are still considering the draft, and so forth. I scanned Davis' article in The Athletic, which was full of "if this", "if that", "depends on", etc.

All I know is that Duke will be ranked top 5 again, with or without Hurt. Whether Carolina will be ranked as high totally depends on getting Cole Anthony.

9F

I think we can assume the cheats will have Cole Anthony. Does anybody think he is even considering going anywhere else?

I just hope the cheats don't get anybody else good after Anthony.

[Jeffrey]

If Hunter stays- Bennett will overtake Roy in convincing players to hang around the program. Roy has certainly lost his touch. Hunter is a legit top 10 pick.

Strongly agree, Hunter has NBA game!

[proelitedota]

I think we can assume the cheats will have Cole Anthony. Does anybody think he is even considering going anywhere else?

I just hope the cheats don't get anybody else good after Anthony.

I've got bad news for you. UNC is in commanding lead for Precious according to analytics. Kansas is in 2nd place...
https://www.pasrforecast.com/

[richardjackson199]

I've got bad news for you. UNC is in commanding lead for Precious according to analytics. Kansas is in 2nd place...
https://www.pasrforecast.com/

Oh yeah I'm not worried about it. The cheats find a way to be good every year. I've accepted that. They will have studs come play with Anthony. I just want to get back to a place where Duke is winning more than 1/3 against them. That has been irritating.

[CDu]

Brazdeikis reportedly declaring and signing with an agent (per Givony and the Athletic twitter accounts). Matthews presumed to be going pro. Maybe they retain Poole, but losing Matthews and Brazdeikis would a huge hit on their top-end talent.

[Nugget]

Brazdeikis reportedly declaring and signing with an agent (per Givony and the Athletic twitter accounts). Matthews presumed to be going pro. Maybe they retain Poole, but losing Matthews and Brazdeikis would a huge hit on their top-end talent.

CBS's Garry Parrish has his "early" Top 25 +1 projecting Michigan at #2, despite losing both of those guys. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2019-20-college-basketball-rankings-michigan-state-is-no-1-in-the-never-too-early-top-25-and-1-for-next-season/

The rest of his Top 10 and others of major note are:

1 Mich St. (assumes Winston and Ward both return)
2 Michigan (losing Iggy and Matthews)
3 Virginia (losing Hunter and Jerome)
4 Duke (assumes we sign Hurt)
5 Auburn
6 Kentucky (losing PJ, Johnson, Herro and Hagans)
7 Louisville (assumes Nwora comes back)
8 Marquette
9 Maryland (losing Fernando)
10 North Carolina (assumes they get Anthony)

Kansas at #11, Gonzaga #12, Nova #14 and no one else from the ACC in the Top 25.

[richardjackson199]

CBS's Garry Parrish has his "early" Top 25 +1 projecting Michigan at #2, despite losing both of those guys. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2019-20-college-basketball-rankings-michigan-state-is-no-1-in-the-never-too-early-top-25-and-1-for-next-season/

The rest of his Top 10 and others of major note are:

1 Mich St. (assumes Winston and Ward both return)
2 Michigan (losing Iggy and Matthews)
3 Virginia (losing Hunter and Jerome)
4 Duke (assumes we sign Hurt)
5 Auburn
6 Kentucky (losing PJ, Johnson, Herro and Hagans)
7 Louisville (assumes Nwora comes back)
8 Marquette
9 Maryland (losing Fernando)
10 North Carolina (assumes they get Anthony)

Kansas at #11, Gonzaga #12, Nova #14 and no one else from the ACC in the Top 25.

Beilein is a great coach. But he isn't that great.

[CDu]

CBS's Garry Parrish has his "early" Top 25 +1 projecting Michigan at #2, despite losing both of those guys. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2019-20-college-basketball-rankings-michigan-state-is-no-1-in-the-never-too-early-top-25-and-1-for-next-season/

The rest of his Top 10 and others of major note are:

1 Mich St. (assumes Winston and Ward both return)
2 Michigan (losing Iggy and Matthews)
3 Virginia (losing Hunter and Jerome)
4 Duke (assumes we sign Hurt)
5 Auburn
6 Kentucky (losing PJ, Johnson, Herro and Hagans)
7 Louisville (assumes Nwora comes back)
8 Marquette
9 Maryland (losing Fernando)
10 North Carolina (assumes they get Anthony)

Kansas at #11, Gonzaga #12, Nova #14 and no one else from the ACC in the Top 25.

Yeah, Michigan is definitely not #2 without Brazdeikis and Matthews. Nor do I think UVa is #3 without Hunter and Jerome. I don't think Parrish is very good at "way too early" predictions.

Well, I take that back: he's gotten at least two people talking about his prediction, including a link. So, maybe he is good at it, assuming the goal is to get clicks and not to be right.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

CBS's Garry Parrish has his "early" Top 25 +1 projecting Michigan at #2, despite losing both of those guys. https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/2019-20-college-basketball-rankings-michigan-state-is-no-1-in-the-never-too-early-top-25-and-1-for-next-season/

The rest of his Top 10 and others of major note are:

1 Mich St. (assumes Winston and Ward both return)
2 Michigan (losing Iggy and Matthews)
3 Virginia (losing Hunter and Jerome)
4 Duke (assumes we sign Hurt)
5 Auburn
6 Kentucky (losing PJ, Johnson, Herro and Hagans)
7 Louisville (assumes Nwora comes back)
8 Marquette
9 Maryland (losing Fernando)
10 North Carolina (assumes they get Anthony)
.

Am I alone in thinking Cassisus will likely leave Sparty...and also Howard leaving Marquette?

[Nugget]

Yeah, Michigan is definitely not #2 without Brazdeikis and Matthews. Nor do I think UVa is #3 without Hunter and Jerome. I don't think Parrish is very good at "way too early" predictions.

Well, I take that back: he's gotten at least two people talking about his prediction, including a link. So, maybe he is good at it, assuming the goal is to get clicks and not to be right.

Certainly, successful in drawing clicks. Also, if you ask him, his track record suggests it's not too, too far away from being "right," as he argues:

"And before you scream 'but it's too early to rank teams for next season because we aren't even sure who's coming and going,' understand that I did this exact exercise on the night of the 2018 title game, and 14 of the 16 schools that ultimately made the Sweet 16 of the 2019 NCAA Tournament were in my initial Top 25 And 1."

Now, most of us probably could also sitting here today predict 14 of next year's Top 25, but I don't see too much that was obviously wrong in his day-after-the-title game picks last year, other than he, like everyone else in the world, wildly underestimated Chris Beard's magic, he overrated Villanova (expecting Dante to come back and for Quinnerly to perform like a Top 15 player), he didn't foresee West Virginia (#18) and UCLA (#20) falling off a cliff, and he (like most of us) had no idea Brazdeikis would be so dynamic right off the bat, as he had, among others:

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Villanova
4. Auburn
5. Tennessee
6. Kentucky
7. Gonzaga
8. Virginia
9. Carolina
10. Nevada
11. Michigan St.
13. Virginia Tech
15. Florida St.
19. Oregon
21. LSU
23. Michigan
26. Purdue

[W&LHoo]

If Hunter stays- Bennett will overtake Roy in convincing players to hang around the program. Roy has certainly lost his touch. Hunter is a legit top 10 pick.

No Virginia fan I know thinks Hunter will stay. Most also think Jerome will leave. Had the hoos lost, there was some reason to think Jerome might return to try and win one, but now he's all but certain to go as well.

Virginia will still be good next year, but definitely taking a step back. 7-10 is probably about right.

[DavidBenAkiva]

A redditor put together a spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18AHF0PKb6BryxhP6NQH-9o5wSd91fdkCG9umCPgwwwk/edit#gid=0) of the way-too-early Top 25 rankings that have been released. They include 247 Sports, CBS Sports, ESPN, NBC Sports, NCAA (Andy Katz), SB Nation, SI, Sporting News, and USA Today. Duke comes in at 5th in the initial batch of rankings, appearing as high as 3rd and as low as 7th. That's right about the range where I would put this team.

Here is the composite rankings:

1. Michigan State
2. Kentucky
3. Virginia
4. Michigan
5. Duke
6. Marquette
7. Oregon
8. Kansas
9. Gonzaga
10. Villanova
11. Louisville
12. Auburn
13. Maryland
14. Texas Tech
15. North Carolina
16. Ohio State
17. Seton Hall
18. Tennessee
19. Arizona
20. Cincinnati
21. Houston
22. Purdue
23. Washington
24. Florida
25. Iowa

I could see, depending upon how things shake out, Duke moving up to #3 or #2 by the time October rolls around.

Michigan might lose one or all of Charles Matthews, Iggy Brazdeikis, and Jordan Poole, their talented wings. Matthews is almost certainly gone while Iggy appears to be intent on staying in the draft. Poole is more of a question mark, although I think he has the most upside of the three. If they do return all 3, they will stay up there in the top 4. But I do not think that will happen and Duke will move up a slot.

Now that UVA has won the National Title, they stand to lose some key pieces, most notably De'Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome. I think both leave. Jerome is a potential first round selection and Hunter is a lottery pick. They won the whole shebang. It's their time. And UVA will not be the same without those two. I think they will still be good, but their ceiling is much lower on both offense and defense without them.

Kentucky is already losing its two best frontcourt players in Reid Travis and PJ Washington. They do not have a Class of 2019 recruit to replace either, although they are bringing in a grad transfer that is a stretch 4. They are almost certainly losing Keldon Johnson, their best and only wing. It's possible they could lose Ashton Hagans and Tyler Herro, their top PG and SG, respectively. Herro, Washington, and Johnson were the only reliable shooters on the team, too. If they lose all 3, UK might slip. Calipari always has a rabbit up his sleeve, so don't hold your breath.

If I had to guess, MSU will be #1 as it seems Cassius Winston is intent on staying in college. Kentucky and Duke will follow with Virginia or Marquette just behind Duke when the dust settles. That's a good spot for Duke.

[scottdude8]

Brazdeikis reportedly declaring and signing with an agent (per Givony and the Athletic twitter accounts). Matthews presumed to be going pro. Maybe they retain Poole, but losing Matthews and Brazdeikis would a huge hit on their top-end talent.

I'm absolutely heartbroken as a Michigan fan (https://mgoblog.com/content/matthews-brazdeikis-poole-draft-process) right now (and I was already having a crappy day at work, so this is the proverbial cherry on top, haha). As mentioned here, losing all three of these guys was the doomsday scenario that most thought was very unlikely until moments ago.

That said, let's not forget that Michigan also lost three key contributors from the 2018 runners up (a first round pick in Mo Wagner, a guy who earned a two-way contract in Duncan Robinson, and a solid G-Leaguer and invaluable senior leader in Muhammad Ali Abdur Rahkman). No one had them anywhere near the top tier of contenders entering the year, and they still ended up a Sweet 16 team (losing to the eventual tourney runners up) and a No. 2 seed. As mentioned before, there is a ton of young talent waiting in the wings in Ann Arbor already, two high 4* recruits who can play on the wing coming in, and now the possibility of an impact grad transfer is realistic. If this goes to form and Michigan loses all three guys they'll by no means be a Top-5 team in the preseason, but there's every reason to believe they have a chance to be a Top-10 team come year's end.

[CDu]

Certainly, successful in drawing clicks. Also, if you ask him, his track record suggests it's not too, too far away from being "right," as he argues:

"And before you scream 'but it's too early to rank teams for next season because we aren't even sure who's coming and going,' understand that I did this exact exercise on the night of the 2018 title game, and 14 of the 16 schools that ultimately made the Sweet 16 of the 2019 NCAA Tournament were in my initial Top 25 And 1."

Now, most of us probably could also sitting here today predict 14 of next year's Top 25, but I don't see too much that was obviously wrong in his day-after-the-title game picks last year, other than he, like everyone else in the world, wildly underestimated Chris Beard's magic, he overrated Villanova (expecting Dante to come back and for Quinnerly to perform like a Top 15 player), he didn't foresee West Virginia (#18) and UCLA (#20) falling off a cliff, and he (like most of us) had no idea Brazdeikis would be so dynamic right off the bat, as he had, among others:

1. Kansas
2. Duke
3. Villanova
4. Auburn
5. Tennessee
6. Kentucky
7. Gonzaga
8. Virginia
9. Carolina
10. Nevada
11. Michigan St.
13. Virginia Tech
15. Florida St.
19. Oregon
21. LSU
23. Michigan
26. Purdue

He did well guessing last year. That does not mean he did well this year.

[scottdude8]

Am I alone in thinking Cassisus will likely leave Sparty...and also Howard leaving Marquette?

I discussed that in detail abo (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43675-So-who-is-going-to-be-good-next-year&p=1154740#post1154740)ve, but there is zero chatter from MSU fans or insiders that Cassius is thinking about the draft, which makes sense given that his size and athleticism just don't fit the modern NBA point guard. NBADraft.net has him as a late second rounder in 2020. Nick Ward is a more likely loss for MSU than Winston is.

Howard I'm not so sure about, but I've got to think he's the type of guy who's stock is never going to be higher than it is right now... and now that teams know who he is and how he plays and have a season to prepare for him, he may come back down to earth next year. He may be a second rounder too, but IMHO he's much more likely than Winston to go pro right now.

[richardjackson199]

Some teams who will be very good next year who aren't being talked about as much:

Oregon. I"m almost glad they probably won't be getting Cole Anthony. Almost, dadgummit.
Arizona. Things could change with the Miller situation. But if that team stays together, and it might, they will be very good with the players joining who they already have.
VCU. They bring everybody back.

and of course everybody realizes it, but MSU is going to be lethal.

Hopefully Duke will as well.

[proelitedota]

Hagans is returning, so they'll be dangerous in the backcourt with their 3 5* PGs.

[richardjackson199]

Hagans is returning, so they'll be dangerous in the backcourt with their 3 5* PGs.

I wonder if this helps Duke with RJ Hampton? If he really wants to be THE starting pg, I guess Memphis is that spot. But this seemingly could help Duke's chances there.

[weezie]

Way to early to talk about this intelligently...9F

I'm still trying to choke down a few desultory sour grapes. Still lots of aimless staring while sitting at stop lights. Head shaking and sighing.

No trip to Canada to look forward to either...

There, how's that? Pretty unintelligent?

[Devil2]

If Hunter stays- Bennett will overtake Roy in convincing players to hang around the program. Roy has certainly lost his touch. Hunter is a legit top 10 pick.

Hunter has also taken a red shirt year. Hunter also explored his draft stock last year. Given his play in the Final four, it is hard to believe his stock is going to get any higher

[Hartford Dukie]

Can't remember where he ranked us previously. Even with Cole Anthony, #8 is too high for the Cheats.

1. Michigan State
2. Duke
3. Kansas
4. Gonzaga
5. Oregon
6. Louisville
7. Kentucky
8. North Carolina
9. Villanova
10. Auburn
11. Alabama
12. Michigan
13. Maryland
14. Seton Hall
15. Baylor
16. Ohio State
17. Houston
18. Texas Tech
19. Utah State
20. Florida
21. St. Mary’s
22. Creighton
23. Arizona
24. Virginia
T25. Purdue
T25. Marquette

https://247sports.com/college/arizona/Article/Cole-Anthony-North-Carolina-Duke-Virginia-Kentucky-preseason-college-basketball-Top-25-131440696/

[Steven43]

Well, Virginia fans I have talked to today think they are a shoo-in, since everyone returns except for Jack Salt. Hah! Dream on! I expect DeAndre is gone and maybe Jerome and/or Guy.

Kindly,
Sage

Boy, were you right. What are those Virginia fans saying now?

[ElliottHoo]

Twits gonna twit, but Goodmans #24 sounds about right, assuming we don’t lose Diakite, too.

[Dukebasketball2020]

I think right now the top teams will be.
1. Michigan state.
2. Duke
3. Gonzaga
4. Kentucky I think they land a few more guys or get someone to reclassify
5. Memphis

[DavidBenAkiva]

I think right now the top teams will be.
1. Michigan state.
2. Duke
3. Gonzaga
4. Kentucky I think they land a few more guys or get someone to reclassify
5. Memphis

I am skeptical of Gonzaga being that good. They will be very young. They lose Perkins, Hachimura, and Clarke from their starters and important bench players Geno Crandall and Jeremy Jones. Zach Norvell, Killian Tillie, and Filip Petrusev have declared for the NBA Draft and I expect at least one of them will go pro. They bring in a very talented and deep recruiting class, but none of them are of the Top 25 variety. If they lose Tillie and Norvell, it will be essentially a brand new team a la Duke and Kentucky of recent years. The difference being that no one knows if anyone can create their own shot or defend. I think they will be a good team, a top 25 squad. But being in the top 10 or even 5 is a stretch.

Memphis would need RJ Hampton to be a top 5 in my mind, and to land Precious Achiuwa as it seems they will. Even then, they will look a lot like recent Duke and Kentucky teams but without the coaching staff that has a track record of coaching that kind of team. I would put them in the Top 10 if they land Hampton and Achiuwa.

Michigan State is a lock for #1 and I do think Duke and Kentucky are right there at #2 and #3 in some order.

[Troublemaker]

Can't remember where he ranked us previously. Even with Cole Anthony, #8 is too high for the Cheats.

1. Michigan State
2. Duke
3. Kansas
4. Gonzaga
5. Oregon
6. Louisville
7. Kentucky


Champions Classic will be interesting again. Let's hope we can get our first win against Kansas.

[UrinalCake]

#2 feels too high for us. We have some nice pieces and a lot of depth but not the high-end talent we’ve grown accustomed to. With that said, when I look at the other teams I can’t say that they’re necessarily better than us either. The ACC should definitely be wide open.

[Troublemaker]

#2 feels too high for us. We have some nice pieces and a lot of depth but not the high-end talent we’ve grown accustomed to. With that said, when I look at the other teams I can’t say that they’re necessarily better than us either. The ACC should definitely be wide open.

I see parity. It really should be a 10-way tie for preseason #1. With Tre back, I love Duke's chances. I always ask of a team: how good is your point guard? And we might have the best two-way PG in the country.

Not sure the ACC is really wide-open. I'll re-evaluate once all the rosters are settled, but Duke should be a pretty heavy favorite. "Wide open" would suggest to me that Duke, Louisville, UNC, UVA, etc are all basically even.

[Dukehk]

Really feels like a "down" year in college basketball. With the seemingly unending declarations for the NBA by any and almost all underclassmen, it feels as if no team is returning a significant number of players outside of michigan state (and even they might lose nick ward).

I feel that louisville might be a bit underrated provided that they get jordan nwora back. I can see them being a really tough veteran team because they return almost everyone whilst adding another piece in grad transfer from st josephs - Lamar Kimble.

I'd have them as the early favorites for acc champs with us closely in 2nd place just based on not knowing how our freshmen will pan out.

If all goes to plan though, we have the depth and talent to make yet another run at the national title next year.

No real dominant teams on paper other than msu and I don't feel like they are unbeatable by any stretch of the imagination. I'm hoping we come full circle and meet them again in the tournament.

[OldPhiKap]

I don't know about teams, but I plan to train this off-season and really up my posting game. It's gotten sloppy from entropy and does not have the urgency needed to become known as a top-level poster. Please be patient with me on the journey -- it is a process not an event.

[Troublemaker]

Really feels like a "down" year in college basketball. With the seemingly unending declarations for the NBA by any and almost all underclassmen, it feels as if no team is returning a significant number of players outside of michigan state (and even they might lose nick ward).

I feel that louisville might be a bit underrated provided that they get jordan nwora back. I can see them being a really tough veteran team because they return almost everyone whilst adding another piece in grad transfer from st josephs - Lamar Kimble.

I'd have them as the early favorites for acc champs with us closely in 2nd place just based on not knowing how our freshmen will pan out.

To be precise/accurate, MSU has already lost Ward and they also graduate two starters in Goins and McQuaid. (McQuaid in particular is underrated as he was a great 3-and-D role player.) I'm certain there are teams returning more than MSU.

As for Louisville, they do lose their point guard Cunningham and they are building on a 20-14 season (10-8 in the ACC). They did recruit a great freshman class (but still lower-ranked than Duke's) but that's not typically the profile of the preseason favorite to win the conference.

[scottdude8]

#2 feels too high for us. We have some nice pieces and a lot of depth but not the high-end talent we’ve grown accustomed to. With that said, when I look at the other teams I can’t say that they’re necessarily better than us either. The ACC should definitely be wide open.

I agree that No. 2 "feels" too high for us. But the question is if not us, who? Michigan will still be great, but not the No. 2 team many projected with Poole and (possibly) Iggy surprisingly leaving. Kansas will essentially be a brand new team next year (although Azubuike returning will be a big help if he stays healthy). Gonzaga will be good because they always are, but they also lose a majority of their contributors from this year's squad. Same situation applied to Kentucky. Nova could be in for a bounce back year with a great recruiting class, but that's also a huge unknown.

I could continue going on and on (and will when I get around to Part 3 of my 2020 outlook, haha), but basically besides MSU there is almost zero "known quantities" in CBB next year. You could argue that Tre is the most impactful returning player for any top 10 team besides MSU. If Javin and/or Marques return, Duke will also have as much upperclass leadership as any non-MSU team as well. So I understand why these writers who are forced to put numbers next to team names, when faced with a handful of teams that are arguably interchangeable, go with the most known quantity, us, first.

[MChambers]

To be precise/accurate, MSU has already lost Ward and they also graduate two starters in Goins and McQuaid. (McQuaid in particular is underrated as he was a great 3-and-D role player.) I'm certain there are teams returning more than MSU.

As for Louisville, they do lose their point guard Cunningham and they are building on a 20-14 season (10-8 in the ACC). They did recruit a great freshman class (but still lower-ranked than Duke's) but that's not typically the profile of the preseason favorite to win the conference.

But MSU does get back Langford, an experienced wing who is more talented than Langford, so that will probably offset the loss of McQuaid, and Ahrens. They will be a little thin inside, however.

[CDu]

But MSU does get back Langford, an experienced wing who is more talented than Langford, so that will probably offset the loss of McQuaid, and Ahrens. They will be a little thin inside, however.

Yeah, MSU appears to be returning a lot: Winston, Langford, Tillman, and Henry are a very good quartet of starters. Add in Rocket Watts as a combo guard and you have a potentially really strong starting five. Their bench is more unproven though, with Gabe Brown, Ahrens, and some guys who didn't play much this past year (Bingham, Loyer) and some next-tier recruits.

Still, they have a pretty good stable of returning players, to the degree that they mainly just need role players to fill in around them.

As for Louisville, a lot depends on the decisions of Nwora and Enoch. If those two guys return to join Sutton and Williams, that's a really formidable returning group. Yes, they will have questions at PG, but everywhere else would appear really strong.

Now, I'd still favor us, mainly because our recruiting class is better than theirs. But they appear to be returning a good deal more talent than we are if those two guys ultimately return to school.

If Nwora and/or Enoch stay in the draft, then no way would I put Louisville in the discussion.

[Kedsy]

But MSU does get back Langford, an experienced wing who is more talented than Langford...

He must be exceptionally experienced, if he's more talented than himself.

[MChambers]

He must be exceptionally experienced, if he's more talented than himself.

Got me! Second "Langford" should be McQuaid.

[Troublemaker]

But MSU does get back Langford, an experienced wing who is more talented than Langford, so that will probably offset the loss of McQuaid, and Ahrens. They will be a little thin inside, however.

I like McQuaid's two-way play better than Langford, but maybe Langford has a big senior season. That said, I have no issues with MSU and think they'll be very good. I was just pointing out that MSU only returns 2 of their 5 opening day starters. (Ward went to the bench after returning from injury).



As for Louisville, a lot depends on the decisions of Nwora and Enoch. If those two guys return to join Sutton and Williams, that's a really formidable returning group. Yes, they will have questions at PG, but everywhere else would appear really strong.

Now, I'd still favor us, mainly because our recruiting class is better than theirs. But they appear to be returning a good deal more talent than we are if those two guys ultimately return to school.

If Nwora and/or Enoch stay in the draft, then no way would I put Louisville in the discussion.

Is this really true?

Let's say Javin returns and Marques leaves (reasonable). I'm not sure I can come up with a Louisville team consisting of only returnees that could beat the following team comfortably. I'm not sure I could come up with one that could even just beat this Duke team.

PG - Tre Jones
SG - Alex O'Connell
SF - Joey Baker
PF - Jack White
C - Javin DeLaurier

[CDu]

I like McQuaid's two-way play better than Langford, but maybe Langford has a big senior season. That said, I have no issues with MSU and think they'll be very good. I was just pointing out that MSU only returns 2 of their 5 opening day starters. (Ward went to the bench after returning from injury).



Is this really true?

Let's say Javin returns and Marques leaves (reasonable). I'm not sure I can come up with a Louisville team consisting of only returnees that could beat the following team comfortably. I'm not sure I could come up with one that could even just beat this Duke team.

PG - Tre Jones
SG - Alex O'Connell
SF - Joey Baker
PF - Jack White
C - Javin DeLaurier

I think Nwora is better than any of our returning players. I think Enoch and Williams are better than Bolden and DeLaurier. I think Sutton is better than any of our returning wings. I think McMahon is comparable to O’Connell. I think Perry is better than Goldwire. So, yes, I think they are returning more talent (key caveat being returns of Enoch and Nwora). I think the presence of Williamson/Barrett/Reddish masked a lot of the limitations of our other players.

Again though, I think our incoming class is much more talented than theirs, so I would pick us over them in aggregate. But I do think they return more talent than we do.

[MartyClark]

I think Nwora is better than any of our returning players. I think Enoch and Williams are better than Bolden and DeLaurier. I think Sutton is better than any of our returning wings. I think McMahon is comparable to O’Connell. I think Perry is better than Goldwire. So, yes, I think they are returning more talent (key caveat being returns of Enoch and Nwora). I think the presence of Williamson/Barrett/Reddish masked a lot of the limitations of our other players.

Again though, I think our incoming class is much more talented than theirs, so I would pick us over them in aggregate. But I do think they return more talent than we do.

CDu - I've been to the last 3 Duke games at Louisville and have some contacts in their program. I agree with you. Louisville will be dangerous next year.

[simplyluvin]

I am skeptical of Gonzaga being that good. They will be very young. They lose Perkins, Hachimura, and Clarke from their starters and important bench players Geno Crandall and Jeremy Jones. Zach Norvell, Killian Tillie, and Filip Petrusev have declared for the NBA Draft and I expect at least one of them will go pro. They bring in a very talented and deep recruiting class, but none of them are of the Top 25 variety. If they lose Tillie and Norvell, it will be essentially a brand new team a la Duke and Kentucky of recent years. The difference being that no one knows if anyone can create their own shot or defend. I think they will be a good team, a top 25 squad. But being in the top 10 or even 5 is a stretch.

Memphis would need RJ Hampton to be a top 5 in my mind, and to land Precious Achiuwa as it seems they will. Even then, they will look a lot like recent Duke and Kentucky teams but without the coaching staff that has a track record of coaching that kind of team. I would put them in the Top 10 if they land Hampton and Achiuwa.

Michigan State is a lock for #1 and I do think Duke and Kentucky are right there at #2 and #3 in some order.

Completely agree with you on Gonzaga. They're losing too much to be ranked that high.

Kansas is also in the same boat. Unless Devon Dotson and the Lawsons come back, there is no way they will be Top 10.

[Troublemaker]

I think Nwora is better than any of our returning players. I think Enoch and Williams are better than Bolden and DeLaurier. I think Sutton is better than any of our returning wings. I think McMahon is comparable to O’Connell. I think Perry is better than Goldwire. So, yes, I think they are returning more talent (key caveat being returns of Enoch and Nwora). I think the presence of Williamson/Barrett/Reddish masked a lot of the limitations of our other players.

Again though, I think our incoming class is much more talented than theirs, so I would pick us over them in aggregate. But I do think they return more talent than we do.

Hmmm, we're not going to agree on this one. (Keeping in mind this is all in good offseason talk / fun mode).

Tre destroys whatever Louisville guard you have bringing it up the court. And I do think Tre is the best player returning on either team, even though I love Nwora. You say the Duke trio that left masked team limitations -- maybe, but I also think they masked how good Tre is, and he's going to be a great college player next season with his usage going up. I disagree that their bigs are better. I think it's a wash -- Lville's bigs are better offensively, but Duke's are better defensively. And with AOC, Joey, and Jack spreading the court, our bigs don't need to do more than catch lob-dunks after Tre penetrates a spread court. Duke 70, Louisville 65.

All in all, we're probably splitting hairs between two fringe NCAA tourney teams (since we're removing the freshmen from the rosters). Both teams will need their freshmen to play well to dream big stuff.

[Dukehk]

Hmmm, we're not going to agree on this one. (Keeping in mind this is all in good offseason talk / fun mode).

Tre destroys whatever Louisville guard you have bringing it up the court. And I do think Tre is the best player returning on either team, even though I love Nwora. You say the Duke trio that left masked team limitations -- maybe, but I also think they masked how good Tre is, and he's going to be a great college player next season with his usage going up. I disagree that their bigs are better. I think it's a wash -- Lville's bigs are better offensively, but Duke's are better defensively. And with AOC, Joey, and Jack spreading the court, our bigs don't need to do more than catch lob-dunks after Tre penetrates a spread court. Duke 70, Louisville 65.

All in all, we're probably splitting hairs between two fringe NCAA tourney teams (since we're removing the freshmen from the rosters). Both teams will need their freshmen to play well to dream big stuff.

The ville have a grad transfer called Lamarr Kimble coming in next year for them. He averaged 15.6 ppg for St Josephs last year so possibly an improvement on cunningham.

No doubt Tre is going to take his game to the next level though! I agree he can lock down any PG in the country, but with a likely higher offensive workload, he might not be able to play that high intensity defense all the time. Here's hoping that the Freshmen turn out better than advertised, because we will need alot of offense to replace RJ and Zion.

It looks like we are playing louisville at home this year anyways. So I'm definitely confident we can beat them at CIS. Its playing away from home that is going to be trouble. Lets face it, we had to come back from 23 points down to win this year! They are going to be a tough team to beat next year if they return everyone.

[CDu]

Hmmm, we're not going to agree on this one. (Keeping in mind this is all in good offseason talk / fun mode).

Tre destroys whatever Louisville guard you have bringing it up the court. And I do think Tre is the best player returning on either team, even though I love Nwora. You say the Duke trio that left masked team limitations -- maybe, but I also think they masked how good Tre is, and he's going to be a great college player next season with his usage going up. I disagree that their bigs are better. I think it's a wash -- Lville's bigs are better offensively, but Duke's are better defensively. And with AOC, Joey, and Jack spreading the court, our bigs don't need to do more than catch lob-dunks after Tre penetrates a spread court. Duke 70, Louisville 65.

All in all, we're probably splitting hairs between two fringe NCAA tourney teams (since we're removing the freshmen from the rosters). Both teams will need their freshmen to play well to dream big stuff.

Yep, not going to agree. :) And yep, neither team would be great so sort of pointless to debate it further. Especially since both teams have a lot coming in (Louisville with Kimble and a good freshman class; Duke with a great freshman class).

[scottdude8]

Not sure if this got posted, but ESPN updated their rankings (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26647277/unc-big-mover-way-too-early-top-25-2019-20) yesterday. Of note, we moved up from 6 to 2... I expect that we'll be at 2 or 3 in most rankings considering a lot of the early Top 5 teams got hit hardest by departures (read my thoughts on that here (https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2019/5/1/18525437/the-2020-outlook-for-duke-basketball-part-3-blue-devils-acc)!). Michigan also benefitted from that and moved up into the Top 5, which I think is right around where they deserve to be... no other team in the country returns senior, all-conference level players at both PG and Center (and Jon Teske is a classic center at 7-foot-1 who can also shoot the 3 and guard switches... don't be surprised if he gets some 2020 draft buzz if Michigan and him succeed this year), so I think the Wolverines should be there regardless of Iggy's decision. Interestingly they bump UNC up all the way to No. 12 from No. 23 based on Cole Anthony and the grad-transfer successes. Also, Marquette dropped all the way from No. 2 to OUT of the rankings... makes sense considering, without the Hauser bros, Wojo's squad could be a one-man show led by Markus Howard.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Not sure if this got posted, but ESPN updated their rankings (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26647277/unc-big-mover-way-too-early-top-25-2019-20) yesterday. Of note, we moved up from 6 to 2... I expect that we'll be at 2 or 3 in most rankings considering a lot of the early Top 5 teams got hit hardest by departures (read my thoughts on that here (https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2019/5/1/18525437/the-2020-outlook-for-duke-basketball-part-3-blue-devils-acc)!). Michigan also benefitted from that and moved up into the Top 5, which I think is right around where they deserve to be... no other team in the country returns senior, all-conference level players at both PG and Center (and Jon Teske is a classic center at 7-foot-1 who can also shoot the 3 and guard switches... don't be surprised if he gets some 2020 draft buzz if Michigan and him succeed this year), so I think the Wolverines should be there regardless of Iggy's decision. Interestingly they bump UNC up all the way to No. 12 from No. 23 based on Cole Anthony and the grad-transfer successes. Also, Marquette dropped all the way from No. 2 to OUT of the rankings... makes sense considering, without the Hauser bros, Wojo's squad could be a one-man show led by Markus Howard.

Count me in the crowd that is skeptical of Michigan for next season. Part of their success the past two years was having multiple wings that could switch 2 through 4. Losing Poole and Matthews are big losses and they may yet lose Iggy. Zavier Simpson is a great defensive point guard and Teske is an improving center that blocks shots and hits the occasional three. There remain serious questions about the team's ability to defend and score the ball next season. They have a couple of rotation players in Eli Brooks and Isaiah Livers that can step up and start for them. But neither Brooks or Livers provide the kind of defensive versatility that made the Michigan team so formidable the past couple of seasons. Brooks is a 6'1" point guard that can play off the ball a little. Livers is an undersized stretch 4. If they lose Iggy, they have no obvious small forward or even a player that can create their own offense. It's weird to see a team that is poised to lose its top 3 players and improve without bringing in any notable players, either. Is the national media banking on Michigan being good just because of the head coach? It seems like they are getting that kind of treatment.

[scottdude8]

Count me in the crowd that is skeptical of Michigan for next season. Part of their success the past two years was having multiple wings that could switch 2 through 4. Losing Poole and Matthews are big losses and they may yet lose Iggy. Zavier Simpson is a great defensive point guard and Teske is an improving center that blocks shots and hits the occasional three. There remain serious questions about the team's ability to defend and score the ball next season. They have a couple of rotation players in Eli Brooks and Isaiah Livers that can step up and start for them. But neither Brooks or Livers provide the kind of defensive versatility that made the Michigan team so formidable the past couple of seasons. Brooks is a 6'1" point guard that can play off the ball a little. Livers is an undersized stretch 4. If they lose Iggy, they have no obvious small forward or even a player that can create their own offense. It's weird to see a team that is poised to lose its top 3 players and improve without bringing in any notable players, either. Is the national media banking on Michigan being good just because of the head coach? It seems like they are getting that kind of treatment.

Those are all super valid concerns. The thing that makes me optimistic as someone who follows the team closely is the fact that the upcoming sophomore class is the best recruiting class in Beilein’s tenure, even if Iggy leaves, and historically under him players make big jumps between their freshmen and sophomore seasons. Brandon Johns is a Michigan Mr. Basketball who showed flashes playing down low as a freshman but is more naturally a wing. David DeJulius is a combo guard who showed massive scoring ability in high school and can shoot the rock, but guards take at least a year typically to adjust to Beilein’s complex offense. Plus, the two incoming freshmen are both wings, with Jaylen Wilson projecting as an instant impact guy.

All of those are major unknowns (as would be Franz Wagner if he comes), but there are enough viable options that make me optimistic just by the law of large numbers that someone will shake out as a scorer. It isn’t like the cupboard is bare of talent, it’s just that some of that talent needs to seize the opportunity. All that said, even if Michigan struggles to score while they may not be a top 5 team, they’ll still be in the hunt (think Texas Tech this year).

[richardjackson199]

So the question is when does Arizona fire Sean Miller? I'm assuming they have to fire him. (But maybe the cheat scandal outcome should give me pause.)

And the more interesting question is where do Arizona's stud recruits end up next year?

Much is yet to be determined.

[NSDukeFan]

So the question is when does Arizona fire Sean Miller? I'm assuming they have to fire him. (But maybe the cheat scandal outcome should give me pause.)

And the more interesting question is where do Arizona's stud recruits end up next year?

Much is yet to be determined.

Couldn’t Miller just say that he either misspoke before and/or he offered money to some non-athletes and/or their families?

[Dukehk]

So the question is when does Arizona fire Sean Miller? I'm assuming they have to fire him. (But maybe the cheat scandal outcome should give me pause.)

And the more interesting question is where do Arizona's stud recruits end up next year?

Much is yet to be determined.

Haven't heard any news at all about their current recruits decommitting though.

I guess it depends on how quickly the NCAA investigate, and we all know they take their time!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Haven't heard any news at all about their current recruits decommitting though.

I guess it depends on how quickly the NCAA investigate, and we all know they take their time!

The thing about Miller, though, is that there wasn't any wiretaps or audio of him presented in court. You would think that would have been played by now. There appear to be tapes of Wade at LSU. So maybe there were a lot of scummy guys around the Arizona program but Miller wasn't one of them. I don't know, he might just get through this unless there's something more than the words of a proven liar like Christian Dawkins.

[CDu]

The thing about Miller, though, is that there wasn't any wiretaps or audio of him presented in court. You would think that would have been played by now. There appear to be tapes of Wade at LSU. So maybe there were a lot of scummy guys around the Arizona program but Miller wasn't one of them. I don't know, he might just get through this unless there's something more than the words of a proven liar like Christian Dawkins.

There are statements by Miller’s assistant coach too though.

[UrinalCake]

New rules in place state that the head coach can be held accountable for his staff even if he had no knowledge of what was happening. Book Richardson was on multiple wiretaps and video tapes receiving money for players. I've been as snarky about the NCAA as anybody with regards to their handling of the UNC-CHeat cheating, but the way they handle players receiving money is completely different from how they handle academic fraud. They want no part of determining the academic credibility of a class and leave that up to the schools, which is a big part of why the CHeats got away with it. But when it comes to players receiving money, they'll come down hard even for relatively minor infractions. And what Arizona is accused of is definitely NOT minor.

[Wander]

So the question is when does Arizona fire Sean Miller? I'm assuming they have to fire him.

I think people have learned recently through UNC and that you can just... choose to not quit or get fired in the face of controversial issues when there's not a strong governing body to impose punishment. Unless the person in question is literally going to be physically forced into prison, there's nothing stopping a university from just... not firing the coach. There may be some media backlash but that's always temporary and/or the behavior is normalized and/or the behavior becomes the precursor to a redemption story.

Now, I think Miller will not be the coach at Arizona next year... but he should have been fired a year ago and wasn't, so. Stranger things have happened.

[devildeac]

Couldn’t Miller just say that he either misspoke before and/or he offered money to some non-athletes and/or their families?

"Not my voice on the tape."

"Typo in transcribing the conversation."

Hey, those lies (or something like them) have worked before...

:mad::mad::mad:

[gofurman]

I agree that No. 2 "feels" too high for us. But the question is if not us, who? Michigan will still be great, but not the No. 2 team many projected with Poole and (possibly) Iggy surprisingly leaving. Kansas will essentially be a brand new team next year (although Azubuike returning will be a big help if he stays healthy). Gonzaga will be good because they always are, but they also lose a majority of their contributors from this year's squad. Same situation applied to Kentucky. Nova could be in for a bounce back year with a great recruiting class, but that's also a huge unknown.

I could continue going on and on (and will when I get around to Part 3 of my 2020 outlook, haha), but basically besides MSU there is almost zero "known quantities" in CBB next year. You could argue that Tre is the most impactful returning player for any top 10 team besides MSU. If Javin and/or Marques return, Duke will also have as much upperclass leadership as any non-MSU team as well. So I understand why these writers who are forced to put numbers next to team names, when faced with a handful of teams that are arguably interchangeable, go with the most known quantity, us, first.

Yes. While number 2 or top 5 may ‘Feel’ too high the way I look at it is literally. Who is better and returning more. ? If you can’t name anyone then Duke is top 5. Sound like MSU, Duke (if at least one of DeLaurier or Bolden return), UNC (w Anthony if he develops) are all top 10

[Nugget]

Great news for Tommy Amaker with Bryce Aiken's decision to return to Harvard for his Senior season.

Harvard should be loaded next year, with Sr. wing Seth Towns (who was its leading scorer two years ago before sitting out last season with injury) also returning, along with a slew of other seniors from the ballyhooed class of 2016 (ranked by ESPN #10 in the country) who have had substantial playing experience, such as PG Christian Juzang, Wing Justin Bassey, PF Robert Baker and PF/C Chris Lewis.

In all, Harvard will return 10 players who played over 200 minutes last year, plus Towns and another strong recruiting class that includes 4-star Wing Chris Ludlum (#89 in 247 Sports Composite Top 100).

If Tommy can keep everyone reasonably healthy and happy, Harvard should be one of the strongest mid-majors next year. If they can get by Penn in the Ivies they would seem to be in line to grab a high seed in the 10-12 range. And, it wouldn't shock me to see Harvard do next year what Wofford and Buffalo did this year and earn a single digit seed. Hopefully, Tommy will schedule some non-conference challenges befitting a club this strong.

[PackMan97]

Markell Johnson has withdrawn from the NBA draft and will return to NC State.

Incoming recruit, Jalen Lecque, is still in the NBA draft and from what I hear will likely not play at NC State next season. That and NC State is currently at 14 scholarships, so somethings got to give.

[907bluedevils]

Kansas should have one of the best front courts in the nation next year with Auzubike returning and De Sousa getting eligibility.

[Lurkingdukedog]

Those are all super valid concerns. The thing that makes me optimistic as someone who follows the team closely is the fact that the upcoming sophomore class is the best recruiting class in Beilein’s tenure, even if Iggy leaves, and historically under him players make big jumps between their freshmen and sophomore seasons. Brandon Johns is a Michigan Mr. Basketball who showed flashes playing down low as a freshman but is more naturally a wing. David DeJulius is a combo guard who showed massive scoring ability in high school and can shoot the rock, but guards take at least a year typically to adjust to Beilein’s complex offense. Plus, the two incoming freshmen are both wings, with Jaylen Wilson projecting as an instant impact guy.

All of those are major unknowns (as would be Franz Wagner if he comes), but there are enough viable options that make me optimistic just by the law of large numbers that someone will shake out as a scorer. It isn’t like the cupboard is bare of talent, it’s just that some of that talent needs to seize the opportunity. All that said, even if Michigan struggles to score while they may not be a top 5 team, they’ll still be in the hunt (think Texas Tech this year).

I recognize this was written a few weeks ago but with the coach leaving, shouldn't Michigan's outlook be more "iffy"?

[scottdude8]

I recognize this was written a few weeks ago but with the coach leaving, shouldn't Michigan's outlook be more "iffy"?

Most definitely. The Wolverines are now more of a fringe Top 25 team with the Beilein departure :(

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Most definitely. The Wolverines are now more of a fringe Top 25 team with the Beilein departure :(

Even with a Fab Five coach?

[Natty_B]

Now, as opposed to the day after the Tournament ends, is when it makes sense to do very early Top 25. Seth Davis is out with his:

https://theathletic.com/1003922/2019/05/31/davis-updating-my-preseason-top-25-after-the-nba-draft-deadline/

Duke is 3. Of note Maryland is coming in very high on these lists. I've always assumed K has the power to stop a Maryland match-up in the Challenge but if there was ever going to be a year........