What was a year at Duke worth to Zion in terms of marketing value?

[Herbie]

There has been so much talk (rightly so!) about the $$ that the NCAA, ESPN, CBS, Duke, etc has made off of the Zion craze this year but I have not seen any real estimates about the marketing value that Zion himself has gained from the exposure that he has gotten in his 1 year at Duke vs if he had been able to go directly to the NBA straight out of high school. Putting aside the debate over whether or not he would have been the #1 pick coming straight out of high school to the NBA if that were allowed, what was the marketing value alone of his year at Duke? Some estimates are that he may now be one of only 9 rookies ever to have an exclusive shoe contract. Would he have gotten that if he went straight to the NBA from HS? He may be looking at a $100M sneaker deal ($10M for 10 years)..what would that have looked like had he not had a year at Duke ($50M)? What is the value of his Instagram following going from 2M to 3M? What other marketing deals will he get now that he would not have gotten with a year as the face of college basketball (Gatorade, etc)?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

There has been so much talk (rightly so!) about the $$ that the NCAA, ESPN, CBS, Duke, etc has made off of the Zion craze this year but I have not seen any real estimates about the marketing value that Zion himself has gained from the exposure that he has gotten in his 1 year at Duke vs if he had been able to go directly to the NBA straight out of high school. Putting aside the debate over whether or not he would have been the #1 pick coming straight out of high school to the NBA if that were allowed, what was the marketing value alone of his year at Duke? Some estimates are that he may now be one of only 9 rookies ever to have an exclusive shoe contract. Would he have gotten that if he went straight to the NBA from HS? He may be looking at a $100M sneaker deal ($10M for 10 years)..what would that have looked like had he not had a year at Duke ($50M)? What is the value of his Instagram following going from 2M to 3M? What other marketing deals will he get now that he would not have gotten with a year as the face of college basketball (Gatorade, etc)?

You said "putting aside if he would have been the #1 pick," but I have to point out that he definitely would not have been.

The other questions are interesting, but relatively unknowable. He definitely expanded his brand via DUKE, the ACC, the NCAA, and ESPN.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

You said "putting aside if he would have been the #1 pick," but I have to point out that he definitely would not have been.

The other questions are interesting, but relatively unknowable. He definitely expanded his brand via DUKE, the ACC, the NCAA, and ESPN.

Exactly, there's not "putting aside" that he wouldn't have been the number one pick....that's the single biggest advantage he gained by a year at Duke. The mega exposure Duke gets normally was another huge benefit. And yes, he expanded his brand via Duke, ACC, NCAA and ESPN...and Duke benefitted greatly as well. This was the classic win/win scenario. Duke won. Zion won. The fans won.

[Lurkingdukedog]

Exactly, there's not "putting aside" that he wouldn't have been the number one pick...that's the single biggest advantage he gained by a year at Duke. The mega exposure Duke gets normally was another huge benefit. And yes, he expanded his brand via Duke, ACC, NCAA and ESPN...and Duke benefitted greatly as well. This was the classic win/win scenario. Duke won. Zion won. The fans won.

I think there is the distinct possibility that his game improved under the coaches' tutelage. . . . .

[Phredd3]

Exactly, there's not "putting aside" that he wouldn't have been the number one pick...that's the single biggest advantage he gained by a year at Duke.

I completely disagree. The number one advantage he got from a year at Duke was a full season of almost non-stop national exposure, starting right with the spectacle of the UK game to begin the season. After that, Zion was all anyone could talk about. The shoe explosion added a ton of value, especially because of the fact that it happened in a major rivalry game that was attended by an ex-President. He went from a player with marginal name recognition, to probably the #1 marketable rookie since LeBron.

That season was probably worth tens of millions of dollars, even without the Natty, and most of that value was added outside of his on-court contract and draft position.

[Rich]

Exactly, there's not "putting aside" that he wouldn't have been the number one pick...that's the single biggest advantage he gained by a year at Duke. The mega exposure Duke gets normally was another huge benefit. And yes, he expanded his brand via Duke, ACC, NCAA and ESPN...and Duke benefitted greatly as well. This was the classic win/win scenario. Duke won. Zion won. The fans won.

Too soon :(

[-jk]

To the OP, I think it's all about the shoe.

And the bidding war to get him to wear a pair.

Gonna be a bumpy ride!

-jk

[JNort]

To the OP, I think it's all about the shoe.

And the bidding war to get him to wear a pair.

Gonna be a bumpy ride!

-jk

Wonder how long until we get a 30 for 30 or something about the shoe bidding war that is about to start.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

To the OP, I think it's all about the shoe.

And the bidding war to get him to wear a pair.

Gonna be a bumpy ride!

-jk

That shoe blowout gave Zion the most leverage ever in the history of shoe contracts.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I completely disagree. The number one advantage he got from a year at Duke was a full season of almost non-stop national exposure, starting right with the spectacle of the UK game to begin the season. \

With due respect, I don't think you read my post very well. I put what you mentioned as a CLOSE SECOND.........so maybe we only 95% agree instead of 100%....I implore you to go re read.

[Furniture]

During the season my brother in law and my nephew have both sent me WhatsApp {texts} about Zion. They are British ( live in England of course) and don’t follow basketball. Zion is news everywhere.

[Phredd3]

With due respect, I don't think you read my post very well. I put what you mentioned as a CLOSE SECOND.....so maybe we only 95% agree instead of 100%...I implore you to go re read.

Maybe, but you said the draft position was the "single biggest" advantage, and exposure was "another huge benefit". The implication was that the two were at best close to equal value. The increase in contract value between the fourth pick and the top pick is roughly $5.5 million, maybe a bit more when you consider the qualifying offer increases (although since those offers are mostly based on performance at that point, I don't think those should really count).

I think the increase in endorsement potential outstrips the salary increase by a factor of at least three, and maybe as much 20x. The increase in endorsement potential absolutely dwarfs the contract increase. So I'd say my agreement with you is roughly 33% at most, and maybe as low as 5%. :)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Maybe, but you said the draft position was the "single biggest" advantage, and exposure was "another huge benefit". The implication was that the two were at best close to equal value. The increase in contract value between the fourth pick and the top pick is roughly $5.5 million, maybe a bit more when you consider the qualifying offer increases (although since those offers are mostly based on performance at that point, I don't think those should really count).

I think the increase in endorsement potential outstrips the salary increase by a factor of at least three, and maybe as much 20x. The increase in endorsement potential absolutely dwarfs the contract increase. So I'd say my agreement with you is roughly 33% at most, and maybe as low as 5%. :)

*gets his popcorn*

[budwom]

That shoe blowout gave Zion the most leverage ever in the history of shoe contracts.

yup, and the current over/under on a shoe contract for him (I know, it's guesswork) is around $75 million...before this year, there would have been no talk of a shoe contract for him (yet). Not bad for a few months work

[camion]

How much leverage would a shoe deal (and any other considerations) give Zion in choosing/avoiding a team in the NBA draft? I know some football quarterbacks have maneuvered in such a way. What about a basketball player?

[DarkstarWahoo]

I’m not sure I can get on board with the assertion that Duke made Zion the presumptive #1 pick. Making him more marketable and getting him more money that way - absolutely. But I think Zion at, say, Clemson absolutely showcases enough of what he showed this year to be the top pick. Clemson doesn’t get the burn Duke gets, but they’re an ACC program with the attendant coverage, and they would have gotten even more publicity with a viral sensation on board.

[Indoor66]

I’m not sure I can get on board with the assertion that Duke made Zion the presumptive #1 pick. Making him more marketable and getting him more money that way - absolutely. But I think Zion at, say, Clemson absolutely showcases enough of what he showed this year to be the top pick. Clemson doesn’t get the burn Duke gets, but they’re an ACC program with the attendant coverage, and they would have gotten even more publicity with a viral sensation on board.

How many pieces can this issue be cut into? Duke has EVERY game it plays televised. Clemson does not.

Zion got a level of exposure playing at Duke that created an opinion that was amplified week after week by his being on TV a couple times every week. That dynamic does not exist for a player at Clemson or almost any other School.

[budwom]

I’m not sure I can get on board with the assertion that Duke made Zion the presumptive #1 pick. Making him more marketable and getting him more money that way - absolutely. But I think Zion at, say, Clemson absolutely showcases enough of what he showed this year to be the top pick. Clemson doesn’t get the burn Duke gets, but they’re an ACC program with the attendant coverage, and they would have gotten even more publicity with a viral sensation on board.

The Clemson notion is completely irrelevant. The question was, what was a year at Duke worth? There was no year at Clemson.
I see the question as comparing Zion's worth had he gone directly to the NBA vs taking the year at Duke.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I’m not sure I can get on board with the assertion that Duke made Zion the presumptive #1 pick. Making him more marketable and getting him more money that way - absolutely. But I think Zion at, say, Clemson absolutely showcases enough of what he showed this year to be the top pick. Clemson doesn’t get the burn Duke gets, but they’re an ACC program with the attendant coverage, and they would have gotten even more publicity with a viral sensation on board.

You missed the point......the question is Zion's marketing with Duke versus Zion's marketing without college. As for the other, Zion at Clemson or South Carolina would've been huge buzz, but NOT the buzz of Zion with Duke.

[Ian]

Yeah, the comparison is about a year at Duke versus directly to the NBA. As people have pointed out, although top players who go to college don't get paid in cash, they do get many benefits that leads to higher compensation. It's not nearly the one sided transaction that the popular narrative make it out to be.
Having said that, I still don't like the idea that players are prevented from going directly to the NBA via an age limit, and I don't agree with the NCAA's insistance on "amatuer status".

[DarkstarWahoo]

Ah. Y’all are right. I misunderstood. You are correct that Zion probably is not the top pick leaving straight from HS.

Does anyone have any recollection of who was the presumed top pick in October?

[summerwind03]

Ah. Y’all are right. I misunderstood. You are correct that Zion probably is not the top pick leaving straight from HS.

Does anyone have any recollection of who was the presumed top pick in October?

RJ and Cam were 1 and 2 in this Sports Illustrated article. Zion was 5 (and Nassir Little was 3).


https://www.si.com/nba/2018/06/27/nba-draft-2019-prospect-rankings-big-board

[bundabergdevil]

Buried in this article (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26392054/zion-williamson-get-paid)about the coming bidding war for Zion's endorsement services, is an interesting bit of commentary about the relative power of the Duke platform:

""There could be some hurt feelings," Vaccaro said. "Other than those five [signature athletes] at Nike, another 20 of them are pretty goddamn great players that could be going to the Hall of Fame and don't have [a shoe]. They've been on the totem pole, and now [Zion] is going to get a zillion-dollar contract and go above everyone else."

In many ways, Williamson has already risen above the totem pole of dozens of Nike players this season, regardless of his amateur status. The platform that Duke affords eclipses those of several of the league's more marginal franchises."

This is an interesting way to put it but the author is right. Duke's platform transcends some of the small market NBA franchises. Would Zion have been poised to land what will likely be the largest rookie shoe deal (not to mention other endorsements) without his year at Duke? If players were still allowed straight out of high school, I don't think he would have built quite the national mania that he was able to through his year at Duke. In terms of exposure, only UNC, KY, etc can compare to what Duke provided. I think there's a good argument that coming to Duke was the best possible move to positively impact future cash flows...

[-jk]

Good question. One K’s been working on for several years.

Always a bit ahead of the curve!

-jk

[Duke76]

Good question. One K’s been working on for several years.

Always a bit ahead of the curve!

-jk

Really though we could reverse the question as well and ask "What was a year of Zion worth to Duke in terms of marketing value?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Really though we could reverse the question as well and ask "What was a year of Zion worth to Duke in terms of marketing value?

It was win/win......great for him, great for Duke, great for us fans. His announcement video today was freaking awesome too....

[gep]

It was win/win...great for him, great for Duke, great for us fans. His announcement video today was freaking awesome too...

And among many, it made confirmed Duke-haters actually watch Duke games... and some :cool:even enjoying it...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

And among many, it made confirmed Duke-haters actually watch Duke games... and some :cool:even enjoying it...

Yeah, Zion was a game changer in that way....those cheat fans high fiving after one of his dunks at the ACCT was an astonishing thing to see. The most hated college program has this impossible not to love player. It was a real conundrum for the haters. Fun to see.

He is a generational talent and personality.....and he joined a basketball program that is already unprecedented and unequaled in the coverage received, and have had, most of the time for 28 years.....ten years before Zion was born.

So un-matched player goes to un-matched program....and BAM, it's a huge story all season long.

[gocanes0506]

I don’t watch / care to watch the NBA but Ill seriously consider watching Zion. Not sure what that is worth but Im sure I wouldn’t be the only one for his new team.

Duke played in more watched games than NBA teams. It was the Zion effect. Not sure it added much to Duke because their profile is already huge.

[nmduke2001]

I think a good comparison can be made in about a month. Ja Morant is a likely number 2 pick. For people that follow basketball, you know that he had a ridiculous year including Zion like highlight dunks. He was an All-American like Zion. Ja morant went to Murray State. In less than a month, both Ja Morant and Zion will have sneaker deals. How much larger will Zion's sneaker deal be than Ja Morant? I'm not saying that delta would be entirely due to Zion playing at Duke but to the casual fan, the extra exposure Zion received from wearing Pantone 287 is pretty big. Most people know about Zion; not many know about Ja Morant.

[fuse]

At minimum, Zion’s year at Duke probably added $100MM to his bank account.

It might seem outrageous, depending on the market of the team where he lands, the exposure might approach $250MM.

It is not unreasonable to think whatever shoe company signs Zion will be a $100MM dollar deal. New York, LA and Chicago endorsements could add substantially to that number.

[uh_no]

At minimum, Zion’s year at Duke probably added $100MM to his bank account.

It might seem outrageous, depending on the market of the team where he lands, the exposure might approach $250MM.

It is not unreasonable to think whatever shoe company signs Zion will be a $100MM dollar deal. New York, LA and Chicago endorsements could add substantially to that number.

yes, but what would the contract have been otherwise? 30 mil? 50 mil?

I think the shoe blowout did as much as anything.

[Herbie]

I think the related question to all of this is whether Zion could have actually gotten his own signature shoe line if he had come directly from high school. Given that there are only 17 current NBA players that have their own signature brand, and only 9 rookies EVER have gotten their own signature shoe (Hakeen, MJ, Shaq, Grant, Stackhouse, Marbury, Iverson, LeBron, Lonzo), I think it's likely that while Zion would have landed a high $$ shoe deal, he probably wouldn't have gotten a signature shoe line. So, the question then is, what's the value/difference in that?

(Oh, and I don't count Lozo's BBB shoe deal)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

yes, but what would the contract have been otherwise? 30 mil? 50 mil?

I think the shoe blowout did as much as anything.

Blowing out that shoe, in the first Duke UNC game of the year, with Obama in the audience......is probably the single most lucrative event he has ever been involved with. Now he'll make a zillion other memories, but when it comes to shoe contracts, that disaster (for the team) was solid gold for Zion. I'm not begrudging him that either.....just pointing out that these lemons will reap lemonade for Zion in the shoe contract department.

[johnb]

The blowout may have cost Duke an NC via lost teamwork, but it made Z richer, quicker.

I have to think that a year at Duke made him better. It cemented a) his actual ability to play alongside great players and b)dominate very good opponents. Maybe he could have developed this equally well if he’d been able to go straight to the NBA, but it’s a treacherous road to be a locker room leader straight from Spartanburg.

I’d also like to see the injury +/- of spending an interim year playing 40 college games rather than a zillion NBA games against men who want to teach the new star a lesson. The math might be that players only have so many jumps before they either get injured or wear out, but I’d think a transition year can reduce injuries and extend careers, leading to more $$. Hard to know.

[SmartDevil]

A year at Duke also further refined Zion's existing abilities in the areas of general logical problem solving AND social skills. Both will contribute to increasing his lifetime pot of gold directly and indirectly.

[frb]

he would've been a top 10 pick last year.. maybe a shoe deal worth in the $15-20 million range over 5-6 years. Now he's looking at $100 million over 6-7 years. And will still make his NBA debut as a teenager. Not bad. Even when they phase OAD out, maybe you'll see kids still want 1 year of college. To mature. To market themselves at a blue blood program. There's risk but there are insurance policies that can mitigate some of the risk.

[nmduke2001]

he would've been a top 10 pick last year.. maybe a shoe deal worth in the $15-20 million range over 5-6 years. Now he's looking at $100 million over 6-7 years. And will still make his NBA debut as a teenager. Not bad. Even when they phase OAD out, maybe you'll see kids still want 1 year of college. To mature. To market themselves at a blue blood program. There's risk but there are insurance policies that can mitigate some of the risk.

This is going to be fascinating. Suppose some kid is really savvy and decides that coming to a school like Duke will increase their exposure and off-the-court earning potential. With a probable watered down NCAA, that kid then helps his team win a championship and goes into the pros with a huge social media presence and signs big endorsement deals. Future savvy kids see this and do the same. If one program can capitalize on being the impact college program, there could be a crazy dynasty.

[MarkD83]

This is going to be fascinating. Suppose some kid is really savvy and decides that coming to a school like Duke will increase their exposure and off-the-court earning potential. With a probable watered down NCAA, that kid then helps his team win a championship and goes into the pros with a huge social media presence and signs big endorsement deals. Future savvy kids see this and do the same. If one program can capitalize on being the impact college program, there could be a crazy dynasty.

The issue is how to define dynasty.

In the late 60s and 70s UCLA won 10 championships in 12 years. Not to take anything away from this accomplishment but the tournament was smaller (2 games to get to the Final Four) and teams played in their region to get to the Final Four meaning an NCSU, UNC, Md would knock themselves out before UCLA even had to worry about them.

With the expansion to a larger field in the 80s and 90s Duke went to 7 final fours in 9 years but (really we are spoiled) only 2 championships. This was when you needed 3-4 wins to get to the Final Four and teams were seeded so that an even distribution of talented teams were in each region.

Now with further expansion of the NCAA tournament (4 games needed to get to the Final Four) and more even distribution of talent since players leave early, we have not seen teams get to more than 2 out of 3 Final Fours (Villanova, UNC...).

So a dynasty could be multiple final fours in a row or multiple elite 8s in a row or.....

[arnie]

The issue is how to define dynasty.

In the late 60s and 70s UCLA won 10 championships in 12 years. Not to take anything away from this accomplishment but the tournament was smaller (2 games to get to the Final Four) and teams played in their region to get to the Final Four meaning an NCSU, UNC, Md would knock themselves out before UCLA even had to worry about them.

With the expansion to a larger field in the 80s and 90s Duke went to 7 final fours in 9 years but (really we are spoiled) only 2 championships. This was when you needed 3-4 wins to get to the Final Four and teams were seeded so that an even distribution of talented teams were in each region.

Now with further expansion of the NCAA tournament (4 games needed to get to the Final Four) and more even distribution of talent since players leave early, we have not seen teams get to more than 2 out of 3 Final Fours (Villanova, UNC...).

So a dynasty could be multiple final fours in a row or multiple elite 8s in a row or....
Minor quibble- all of our 80s and 90s Final 4s required 4 wins to get there.

[Jeffrey]

I think the shoe blowout did as much as anything.

Does Duke also deserves credit for the lucrative shoe blowout? Would Zion have been wearing Nikes elsewhere?

[camion]

You could put a dollar value on it, but I'd prefer not to. Zion seems to be a genuinely nice guy and nice is priceless.

This is still one of my favorite pictures of Zion during the season, after the Louisville game when he stopped on his way to the locker room for a picture with a young fan.

9335