Final Four Predictions and Discussion Thread

[DukeTrinity11]

I've got Auburn over UVA and Texas Tech over MSU.

Auburn is playing incredible team basketball the last month and I don't think UVA's guards are well equipped to stop the speedy Bryce Brown and Jared Harper. UVA is shaky with the ball against elite opponents and Auburn leads the country in forcing turnovers. This one could get ugly for UVA if they're not making their shots. Auburn is almost impossible to stop at the 3 point line for an entire 40 minutes and their depth is incredible.

TTU will suck the soul out of MSU. Both teams make it almost impossible to score inside but TTU has the shooters like Moretti and Mooney who can drain 3s. McQuaid and Aaron Henry will really struggle in this game and cough the ball up a lot. MSU's turnover problems will rear its ugly head here.

I expect Chris Beard and TTU to cut down the nets as they've been the best team in the country since February 1st besides that random loss to WVU in the Big 12 Tournament (which in reality just energized this Texas Tech team by giving them some time off).

What do ya"ll think will happen tomorrow night? :D

[weezie]

I'm with you. That's a good round up.

Thinking the hoo makes the final game but txtech is fast fast fast.

[MChambers]

UVa over Auburn, fairly easily, and MSU over TT, in a close, slow paced game. MSU is just so tough.

[UrinalCake]

I predict that I will spend the weekend crying into my pillow while I dream about what might have been.

[Tripping William]

I predict that I will spend the weekend crying into my pillow while I dream about what might have been.

^^^^ +1

[sagegrouse]

I expect Auburn's run is coming to an end. Virginia will advance, and, I believe, prevail in the finals.

Michigan State will probably beat Texas Tech, only to lose to the Wahoos Monday night.

[robed deity]

MSU and Virginia. I keep going back and forth on who will win in the final though.

[GoDuke2015]

I predict that I will spend the weekend crying into my pillow while I dream about what might have been.


Ugh, sadly I will do the same. Or just watch movies and try not to think about it. :(

[devildeac]

Interesting perspective in this morning's Raleigh News and Observer in an article titled "Welcome to the Final Four of the Unexpected and Unwanted:"

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/luke-decock/article228830999.html

First gem:

"That’s the same Bruce Pearl who had to stay away from college basketball for three years after lying to NCAA investigators at Tennessee. The same Bruce Pearl whose Auburn staff included assistant coaches caught up in two separate corruption probes, one of whom already pleaded guilty and faces two years in jail. The same Bruce Pearl who, despite or because of all of that, is a pretty good basketball coach."

And this:

"Half the field is composed of football schools with only a passing historic interest in basketball instead of a Kentucky or a North Carolina. Tom Izzo’s presence, normally welcomed, is slightly tarnished by the sudden outrage over the way he yelled at a player in the early rounds, a shifting-tectonics moment of clashing generational attitudes, not to mention Michigan State’s shattered reputation over its handling of the predatory Larry Nassar."

Just think, with a few less turnovers and less B1G rugby/football in the paint, it coulda been Duke and Zion.

<sigh>

[Wander]

Auburn already used their "play out of their minds even though their best player is injured" game. I think UVA takes them.

But, I'm also picking Texas Tech as the title winner. And we may look back at this Final Four in a few decades as the moment when Beard became one of the great coaches in the sport.

[robed deity]

Just think, with a few less turnovers and less B1G rugby/football in the paint, it coulda been Duke and Zion.

<sigh>[/QUOTE]

The no call around the 4 minute mark which led to an and-one dunk on the other end was inexcusable. I know Duke regained their footing and then made a mess of the end, but that was a huge play in the game.

[dukelifer]

I expect Auburn's run is coming to an end. Virginia will advance, and, I believe, prevail in the finals.

Michigan State will probably beat Texas Tech, only to lose to the Wahoos Monday night.

This is my expectation. I think this is Virginia's tourney but I would not be surprised to see MSU pull it out and give Izzo number 2.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Prediction 1: MSU wins......I am 40% confident.
#2: UVa wins....I'm 25% confident of that.
#3: I don't watch a day-yum minute of it......I am 99% confident of that.

[ncexnyc]

People keep waiting for Auburn's bubble to burst, but let's remember how they started the season and how we viewed our victory over them at Maui. They did hit a rough spot, but have turned things around quite nicely to close the season. It would have been really easy for them to fold after Okeke went down with his injury, but they didn't. They play at a really fast pace and shoot well from outside the arc, two things which bode well for their match-up with UVA. I'll take Auburn.


MSU played against their norm by not turning the ball over against us. I can't see that happening again this weekend. I was also impressed with how TT managed to neutralize Gonzaga's supposed frontcourt advantage. I'll take TT for the win.


I'll go with Destiny's Darling the Auburn Tigers for the win on Monday night. Breakout your Chuckedo for the party at Barkley's house after the game.

[happydays1949]

I probably won't watch, but I'm pulling for Tony Bennett. He seems like such a good man!

[Dukehk]

I predict that I will spend the weekend crying into my pillow while I dream about what might have been.

Honestly still hurts. Can’t even take myself to watch any college basketball, let alone highlights of this season.

Just pissed that it should have been us there and we would have cleaned out the field.

[BeachBlueDevil]

So if UVA, TT, or Auburn win Duke wins by proxy, right?

All kidding aside... I'm pulling for UVA. My bracket pool allowed two brackets in one I took Duke winning it all (like most) in the other I took UVA. I currently sit in second and if UVA wins the title I will win a couple hundred dollars.

[wavedukefan70s]

I had Auburn and us in the final.ill ride Auburn on out.

[gofurman]

I probably won't watch, but I'm pulling for Tony Bennett. He seems like such a good man!

WHO SHOULD WE PULL FOR

1 NOT MSU - that would help Izzo recruiting w number 2.. though I respect the program a lot the Title would help them recruit vs us.

2 FOR the ACC

... So I want 1) UVA or 2) TTU (does not affect Duke in any way) and then 3) MSU and last 4) Pearl because he has cheated - that said I don't begrudge his players so I don't really hate any of the teams..

If MSU wins it that might sting as we lost to them by one stinkin point.. So go UVA and TTU. UVA would be great (though FF is great) as it shuts up all the people who say you cant win with Bennetts style. That would be sweet- story line for UVA " from first ever loss to a 16 seed to National Champ!" - t hat would be u n b e l i e v a b l e !!! Heck they already went from first team to lose to a 16 seed to Final Four. Great for them

[Devilwin]

Virginia 69, Auburn 59..MSU 76 , TTU 73.

Virginia 66, MSU 57..End of story.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I had Auburn and us in the final.ill ride Auburn on out.

Auburn lost their best player. They were able, to their credit, to pull together and win the next game against UK....but after that first game rallying around the flag thing, teams ususally suffer when the best player goes down.

[brevity]

ESPN: Zion Williamson offers scouting report on the 2019 Final Four teams (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26451003/zion-williamson-offers-scouting-report-2019-final-four-teams)


Williamson was also asked to predict a winner by the assembled media on hand in Minneapolis but politely declined.

Duke was 4-1 against the five Final Four teams...

What is this, the Triwizard Tournament? Do better, ESPN.

[wavedukefan70s]

Auburn lost their best player. They were able, to their credit, to pull together and win the next game against UK...but after that first game rallying around the flag thing, teams ususally suffer when the best player goes down.

I believe Harper is a better guard than Jerome. I also believe there athleticism is better than Virginia's. If they cover the 3 and stay out of foul trouble .I believe they can still win.

[rsvman]

Virginia 69, Auburn 59..MSU 76 , TTU 73.

Virginia 66, MSU 57..End of story.

You think Virginia will score 135 points in the final four? Wow.

What if Texas tech beats MSU? I could see the final being Virginia 52-Texas Tech 49.

[devildeac]

You think Virginia will score 135 points in the final four? Wow.

What if Texas tech beats MSU? I could see the final being Virginia 52-Texas Tech 49.

Most of the audience might be asleep by 10 PM Eastern time.

[gofurman]

Most of the audience might be asleep by 10 PM Eastern time.

Simplistic but if Auburn gets a few threes - and if anyone can they can - pressure mounts on UVA. Auburn pasted Unc scoring 90+. They could put 70 on uva and that’s tough to match

That said go Hoos - from losing to
A 16 to winnin it all

[weezie]

I predict that I will spend the weekend crying into my pillow while I dream about what might have been.

Been a quiet, sulking week. I'm not watching any of the games today or Monday. Not giving CBS the eyes. Bloomberg reported secondary market tix plummeted more than 50%. I'm glad.

[devildeac]

Simplistic but if Auburn gets a few threes - and if anyone can they can - pressure mounts on UVA. Auburn pasted Unc scoring 90+. They could put 70 on uva and that’s tough to match

That said go Hoos - from losing to
A 16 to winnin it all

Scoring 100 would have been even nicer. Maybe something like 102-70. ;)

[devildeac]

Been a quiet, sulking week. I'm not watching any of the games today or Monday. Not giving CBS the eyes. Bloomberg reported secondary market tix plummeted more than 50%. I'm glad.

I guess they'll miss the both of us then :o. I'm good with a Hoos win today so I win the office pool and the gift certificate to the nearby craft beer store. ;)

[TruBlu]

Chances are that the refs will call MSU’s game the way it should have been called against us. 20-25 fouls called on MSU’s muggers, unless Izzo calls of the dogs after seeing how the game is being called.

[BandAlum83]

It doesn’t matter.

I can’t bring myself to care.

[Steven43]

Auburn lost their best player. They were able, to their credit, to pull together and win the next game against UK...but after that first game rallying around the flag thing, teams ususally suffer when the best player goes down.
That’s exactly what I have been thinking. I see Auburn as the weakest of the four teams.

[Steven43]

Chances are that the refs will call MSU’s game the way it should have been called against us. 20-25 fouls called on MSU’s muggers, unless Izzo calls of the dogs after seeing how the game is being called.
Why do you think they will call tonight’s MSU game the way it should have been called when Duke and MSU played? Are you suggesting one or more of the refs had it in for Duke?

[richardjackson199]

No predictions here.

But I'm rooting for UVA and Texas Tech.

Won't happen but I wouldn't mind if MSU loses by 50. Yes I'm bitter. Is that team losing any players for next year? Wow they're going to be good next year.
And nothing against Auburn (I'm too happy with them for knocking out Self, Calipari, and Roy). But Beard seems like another great, great guy and coach. So go Texas Tech.

And hopefully next year this time it's Duke. We're due. I hope we see it that way and make it happen.

[Saratoga2]

I had Auburn and us in the final.ill ride Auburn on out.

Funny but so did I. I had Texas Tech, Duke, Auburn and Tenn. I had Duke and Auburn advancing. Auburn has lost an important part of their team, which was a tough break. Duke didn't play a solid game so were bounced. Going forward, I think a lot will depend on how the games are called. If UVA wins, Tony Bennett's reputation will be enhanced. He has to be one of the greatest coaches in college basketball, even now.

[richardjackson199]

Funny but so did I. I had Texas Tech, Duke, Auburn and Tenn. I had Duke and Auburn advancing. Auburn has lost an important part of their team, which was a tough break. Duke didn't play a solid game so were bounced. Going forward, I think a lot will depend on how the games are called. If UVA wins, Tony Bennett's reputation will be enhanced. He has to be one of the greatest coaches in college basketball, even now.

Agreed. I am not a UVA fan because I'm a Duke fan. So I'm irritated that Duke is not there and am not in the greatest mood this weekend. But I also get tired of hearing the bashing of Tony Bennett saying his style can't win in the NCAAT. If this tourney proved anything, it's hard for anybody's style to advance in the NCAAT. But Bennett is an incredible coach and the dude has lost to how many teams in the last 2 years? Not very many. And he has done it with utmost class which is more than I can say for turds like Roy and Calipari. Who has done more with less than Tony Bennett?

At this point, I hope UVA wins this thing. It would be cool for those players and coach after the awful emotions and aftermath they suffered last year. If they don't I hope Texas Tech wins this thing. If they don't I hope Auburn wins. And worst case, at least it's not Roy, or Cal, or Self. This year sucks (because I wanted Final Four), but it could be much, much worse.

Good luck Hoos - you certainly deserve that, and have made your luck by being good and doing things right IMO.

[-jk]

...

Good luck Hoos - you certainly deserve that, and have made your luck by being good and doing things right IMO.

Yep: Good luck, 'Hoos!

Grind them into the ground - it's that voodoo that you do so well!

-jk

[Bob Green]

Let's Go WAHOOS! Bring home a championship for the ACC. :cool:

[brevity]

Halftime: Auburn 31, Virginia 28.

Fine discussion we’re having. Another example of why Duke basketball fans are not the same as college basketball fans.

If this were chat I would offer Halftime Trivia, but it’s not, so I’ll just ask if this level of play can be attributed to Virginia’s style, or the fact that Final Four basketball is a completely different sport. Dome settings and elevated floors are against nature. They may as well put ice skates on the players or something.

[dukelifer]

Halftime: Auburn 31, Virginia 28.

Fine discussion we’re having. Another example of why Duke basketball fans are not the same as college basketball fans.

If this were chat I would offer Halftime Trivia, but it’s not, so I’ll just ask if this level of play can be attributed to Virginia’s style, or the fact that Final Four basketball is a completely different sport. Dome settings and elevated floors are against nature. They may as well put ice skates on the players or something.

UVA’s style of play is likely a big part but the stage is a big one. UVA seems to have things under control now.

[devildeac]

Cavs utterly choking this one away, currently on an 0-12 non-slaught.

[TKG]

Cavs utterly choking this one away, currently on an 0-12 non-slaught.

Hoos have been on a 4 minute scoring drought.

[YmoBeThere]

I do enjoy watching Ty Jerome lose.

[arnie]

Hoos have been on a 4 minute scoring drought.

If they lose, epic collapse.

[TKG]

The score is where UVA would like it, the low 60s.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

If they lose, epic collapse.

wow, i was coming to post epic collapse........hey Memphis, hold my beer......

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Cavs utterly choking this one away, currently on an 0-12 non-slaught.

...hey Tony, if you thought getting blown out by UMBC was bad....

[Furniture]

UVA’s style of play is likely a big part but the stage is a big one. UVA seems to have things under control now.

Jinx?

[duke4ever19]

What a b.s. call.

Auburn won this game. The announcers are watching replay after replay and aren't sure if it's a foul, but the refs are fine letting it decide everything?

[TKG]

Wow!! Tough call in that situation. It’s the correct call but still tough in that situation.

[TKG]

If Auburn loses, Bruce Pearl might explode.

[MartyClark]

Wow!! Tough call in that situation. It’s the correct call but still tough in that situation.

Good call, I think. Go Hoos

[arnie]

Wow!! Tough call in that situation. It’s the correct call but still tough in that situation.

They are the luckiest team ever (except for maybe 83 Pack)

[ncexnyc]

I can't believe I turned the game off when UVA went up 10.:mad:

[Furniture]

Unbelievable.......

[dukelifer]

They are the luckiest team ever (except for maybe 83 Pack)

Amazing

[YmoBeThere]

Well, that was not the outcome I was hoping for. Never should have turned it on.

[TKG]

Cajones to step to the line and hit all three.

[Furniture]

Terrible terrible terrible....feel so sorry for Auburn...

[brevity]

Final: Virginia 63, Auburn 62.

I guess some of you were watching.

[duke4ever19]

Sorry, but this is a shameful way to get to the championship game.

[dukelifer]

Well, that was not the outcome I was hoping for. Never should have turned it on.

Such a horrible way to lose. But UVa had a big lead and blew it.

[devildeac]

And dd wins the office pool. Bottle Revolution, here I come (next week).

[dukelion]

Clear foul.....nice having a guy who can step up and hit free throws:(

[indy1duke]

Where were these refs in 2002 when Boozer got mugged? Virginia can go to hell.

[devildeac]

Remember now, Duke gets all the calls...

[JBDuke]

Did Jerome commit a double dribble when bringing the ball up the court on that last possession?

[dukelion]

Sorry, but this is a shameful way to get to the championship game.

Why?

Clear foul......dude stepped up and made his shots.

Plus Guy made a big time three the possession prior.......props when props are due.

[duke4ever19]

WOW

Even Guy is admitting it's controversial and Bennett is saying, "I hope that was a good call."


AND a missed double-dribble.

B.S.

Auburn got royally screwed.

[Tripping William]

Did Jerome commit a double dribble when bringing the ball up the court on that last possession?

Yes, yes it was

[TKG]

Refs missed a double dribble on Jerome just prior to the final play... holy mackerel!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Remember now, Duke gets all the calls...

.....can't be said enough.......as MSU is in the FF and then this......:mad:

[knicknut]

Double dribble much more cut-and-dry than a judgment foul call at the end. Tigers got hosed.

[duke4ever19]

Why?

Clear foul...dude stepped up and made his shots.

Plus Guy made a big time three the possession prior....props when props are due.

And the missed double-dribble? Your thoughts?

[wavedukefan70s]

Refs missed a double dribble on Jerome just prior to the final play... holy mackerel!

I about lost my composure on that missed dd.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Final: Virginia 63, Auburn 62.

I guess some of you were watching.

I was not...watching Hurricanes hockey, checking the score periodically on espn.com. I've still no idea how Virginia blew it, then got it back.

[Skydog]

Wow!! As a movie plot it would be rejected - too contrived.

[Bob Green]

It was clearly a foul but boy did UVa get lucky. Calling the foul is 50/50. Plus Ty Jerome double dribbled and it wasn't called. Sometimes you have to have luck on your side.

[ncexnyc]

Did Jerome commit a double dribble when bringing the ball up the court on that last possession?
CBS just had Gene S. on and he stated that it was clearly a double dribble.

[Acymetric]

Foul was obvious and had to be called.

Double dribble was definitely missed.

[dukelion]

And the missed double-dribble? Your thoughts?

Missed the dd but it was a clear foul on the three....not a judgment call......dude crashed into his legs before he released the ball.....easy call even in a big game.

[indy1duke]

And now we learn that Jerome committed double dribble with 1.5 seconds left which would have sealed the deal for Auburn. What a joke. At least this didn’t happen to our Blue Devils.

[MChambers]

Wow!! Tough call in that situation. It’s the correct call but still tough in that situation.

It was a foul. Has to be called.

[scottdude8]

Man, I thought we might’ve been a team of destiny after UCF and VT. Virginia’s last two games make that luck look tame by comparison. Wow.

Definitely a foul on Jerome, one they typically don’t call at the end of games but a foul by the book nonetheless. The missed double dribble on the other hand is completely unjustifiable. Can we just hire full time refs already so they can train full time and get stuff right?

[arnie]

It was clearly a foul but boy did UVa get lucky. Calling the foul is 50/50. Plus Ty Jerome double dribbled and it wasn't called. Sometimes you have to have luck on your side.

The double dribble was clear and all 3 blind mice should have seen it. They probably don’t know the rules.

[devildeac]

Missed the dd but it was a clear foul on the three...not a judgment call...dude crashed into his legs before he released the ball...easy call even in a big game.

Another dean's myth invention.

[Natty_B]

Just don’t think you can make that call at that moment. Even Guy thought it was over and the double dribble woof. I’m not a huge fan of fouling to foul - I don’t think it helped Auburn.

[TKG]

I was not...watching Hurricanes hockey, checking the score periodically on espn.com. I've still no idea how Virginia blew it, then got it back.

Canes 4. Flyers 3. As an FYI.

[Tripping William]

And dd wins the office pool. Bottle Revolution, here I come (next week).

Better bring home some Double Dribbrue ....

[Skydog]

Mistake to miss double dribble obviously.
But I admire the foul call - most refs too chicken to make correct call in that situation.

[BigZ]

Skip Bayless Tweet when Kyle Guy went to foul line:

“This would be Lebron’s worst nightmare”

Lol it’s hilarious bc it’s true

[Acymetric]

It was clearly a foul but boy did UVa get lucky. Calling the foul is 50/50. Plus Ty Jerome double dribbled and it wasn't called. Sometimes you have to have luck on your side.

I'll disagree slightly. Refs do not (usually) swallow their whistles on contact with outside shooters. The whistle swallowing at end of games happens in the lane. You absolutely can't give the ref a reason to blow the whistle on a set jumpshooter because they WILL call that (and you could see in the replay the Auburn player knew he messed up before he actually made contact).

[dukelifer]

It was clearly a foul but boy did UVa get lucky. Calling the foul is 50/50. Plus Ty Jerome double dribbled and it wasn't called. Sometimes you have to have luck on your side.

Just goes to show how much luck plays in winning a championship sometime.

[wavedukefan70s]

I'm not complaining about the foul but in general.
Officiating has been down in general. Not that there isnt some good refs.
If wasnt for my love of Duke basketball. I do not believe I'd watch another CB game.

[AZLA]

Did Jerome commit a double dribble when bringing the ball up the court on that last possession?

Yes. That is the true controversy; wasn’t even an argument. This game was over. Auburn won. I have never seen such terrible officiating in a modern day FF where clearly the ref’s not calling a double dribble (clear and irrefutable); but then turning around calling a body touch foul, is absolutely bs.

BS

[kako]

The foul on Guy was a good call. You can't bump into a jump shot, you need to give space to the shooter to come down. Guy was a stud hitting those 3 shots. But the missed call on Jerome was tough. I can only imagine the refs knew that Auburn would be trying to foul and were looking for that. Clearly missed. But that's how it goes - usually refs make the right call, but sometimes they don't. UVA advances.

9F

[sagegrouse]

Yes. That is the true controversy; wasn’t even an argument. This game was over. Auburn won. I have never seen such terrible officiating in a modern day FF where clearly the ref’s not calling a double dribble (clear and irrefutable); but then turning around calling a body touch foul, is absolutely bs.

BS

San Antonio, 2004. Way too soon to forget.

[sagegrouse]

BTW, Kyle Guy looks exactly like my seven-year-old grandson. I am not saying he looks 7 YO -- he looks at least 15.

What guts on the free throws!

[devildeac]

Better bring home some Double Dribbrue ...

Well played. I might bring home some New Holland Blue Sunday Sour as I'm still pretty bitter about last weekend. :mad:

[duke4ever19]

Missed the dd but it was a clear foul on the three...not a judgment call...dude crashed into his legs before he released the ball...easy call even in a big game.

I'm not buying it.

If the ref didn't blow the whistle on that three, UVA fans would complain, but most others would say some version of, "Yeah, but we've seen much worse not called. You can't expect that call in that situation."

The double-dribble would also be used to say, "Well at least that non-call on the double-dribble cancelled out the non-call on the foul at the end."

[robed deity]

Not sure how they missed that double dribble. Did they think the Auburn player touched it? Or maybe Jerome fooled them by decisively continuing his dribble?

[AZLA]

San Antonio, 2004. Way too soon to forget.

True.

[InSpades]

Kyle Guy... so much pressure. So clutch. Definitely have to call the foul on the 3. Obviously should have also called the double dribble. Not sure what the refs saw... the defender was nowhere near the ball.

Congrats to UVA... huge turnaround from last season and love what they get out of their players.

[Natty_B]

UVA went like 5 deep. Something to keep in mind when we rip
K for bench usage.

[ncexnyc]

Kyle Guy... so much pressure. So clutch. Definitely have to call the foul on the 3. Obviously should have also called the double dribble. Not sure what the refs saw... the defender was nowhere near the ball.

Congrats to UVA... huge turnaround from last season and love what they get out of their players.

Have we reached the point in time where Bennett is to Coach K, what Coach K was to Dean Smith back in the mid 80's?

[TKG]

Auburn’s press conference should be fun....

[Skydog]

A couple earlier bad foul calls against Jerome sent him to bench and hurt VA big time as well. As usual bad ref calls go both ways.

[TKG]

Have we reached the point in time where Bennett is to Coach K, what Coach K was to Dean Smith back in the mid 80's?

We’ll know if K creates an academic fraud scheme in order to compete.....

[Skydog]

If Texas Tech wins Final will be race to 30.

[dukelifer]

Kyle Guy... so much pressure. So clutch. Definitely have to call the foul on the 3. Obviously should have also called the double dribble. Not sure what the refs saw... the defender was nowhere near the ball.

Congrats to UVA... huge turnaround from last season and love what they get out of their players.

One reason that UVa is tough to beat is that they have two great shooters. Never out of it. Still- they have had two crazy games.

[ncexnyc]

One reason that UVa is tough to beat is that they have two great shooters. Never out of it. Still- they have had two crazy games.

Of course that takes us back to the old saying, "It takes a little bit of luck to win it all."

[UrinalCake]

Wow, what a turnaround in the last 10 seconds. You have to feel for the Auburn fans. Wonder if they’ll be spending all summer on the message boards dissecting those last 10 seconds 8-). Fouling Jerome that second time was a mistake, there were 1.5 seconds and he didn’t have a great handle on the ball and was going to have to throw up a prayer.

[rolm]

What would the narrative be had Duke won in this fashion?!

[roywhite]

Wow, what a turnaround in the last 10 seconds. You have to feel for the Auburn fans. Wonder if they’ll be spending all summer on the message boards dissecting those last 10 seconds 8-). Fouling Jerome that second time was a mistake, there were 1.5 seconds and he didn’t have a great handle on the ball and was going to have to throw up a prayer.

UVa showed great coaching and smart play down the stretch. Auburn's last 2 fouls were absolutely crucial and were mistakes.

[kako]

Not sure how they missed that double dribble. Did they think the Auburn player touched it? Or maybe Jerome fooled them by decisively continuing his dribble?

IMO the refs are only human. I really do think that the refs knew Auburn was trying to foul, so they were looking for it. They didn't want to be late on the call since they also knew that UVA wanted to have a chance at a last second attempt. The defender was trying to grab Jerome up top, so the refs were looking at his hands to see if it warranted a foul. What nobody anticipated was the ball goes off Jerome's back foot. It surprised everyone. The side ref and front court ref probably couldn't see what happened, but the trailing ref should have seen it. But perhaps he was also trying to see when the foul was going to be given by looking at the defender's hands.

Pains me to agree with Kenny Smith, but the foul situation with Auburn being able to give fouls probably hurt them in the end. If they didn't have a foul to give, then the refs wouldn't have been looking for a foul. Or UVA would have had to put up a prayer. But with that foul to give, it stopped the clock again. That set up the last shot to Guy... which we should give it up to Bennett - it was a great play call. Putting the ball in the hands of your All-American (3rd team) is what a team wants.

9F

[Skydog]

Wow, what a turnaround in the last 10 seconds. You have to feel for the Auburn fans. Wonder if they’ll be spending all summer on the message boards dissecting those last 10 seconds 8-). Fouling Jerome that second time was a mistake, there were 1.5 seconds and he didn’t have a great handle on the ball and was going to have to throw up a prayer.

Easy for us on couch. Especially after seeing result. Very difficult split second decisions for players in real time.

[Natty_B]

Wow, what a turnaround in the last 10 seconds. You have to feel for the Auburn fans. Wonder if they’ll be spending all summer on the message boards dissecting those last 10 seconds 8-). Fouling Jerome that second time was a mistake, there were 1.5 seconds and he didn’t have a great handle on the ball and was going to have to throw up a prayer.

Totally agree. The fouling cuz you can doesn’t work nearly as often as it’s proponents say.

[Skydog]

When double dribble happened I had a brief nagging feeling but didn’t consciously think bad call at time. Neither did announcers, including Barkley and friends. Became “obvious” to most fans after mentioned on TV by the CBS official.

[dukelifer]

What would the narrative be had Duke won in this fashion?!

That Duke was lucky again.

[Wander]

When double dribble happened I had a brief nagging feeling but didn’t consciously think bad call at time. Neither did announcers, including Barkley and friends. Became “obvious” to most fans after mentioned on TV by the CBS official.

Yeah, it was a clear double dribble and missed call in favor of UVA... but I also understand why it was missed. That was a weird situation. I think most refs and people would miss that.

[rolm]

That Duke was lucky again.

I think it would be a lot more than that. It would be Duke gets all the calls. CBS wanted to make sure Duke was in the finals. The fix was in.

I’m sad we aren’t playing today, but glad we didn’t win on any obvious wrong calls.

[dukelifer]

Yeah, it was a clear double dribble and missed call in favor of UVA... but I also understand why it was missed. That was a weird situation. I think most refs and people would miss that.

The ref was waiting for the foul and more concerned of calling it if there was a shot- so missed the the DD. UVA may win it all but they have been a very fortunate team.

[Tripping William]

I think it would be a lot more than that. It would be Duke gets all the calls. CBS wanted to make sure Duke was in the finals. The fix was in.

I’m sad we aren’t playing today, but glad we didn’t win on any obvious wrong calls.

Billy Packer would have had an aneurysm.....

[gotoguy]

I didn't realize it was a double dribble until after the game. Big collapse by UVA after Jerome went out but man was Guy clutch. An Indiana native, I know Guy shot three FTs to win dozens of times on his driveway growing up back home in Indiana

I feel badly for the Auburn players and Bruce Pearl is an excellent coach but he is a lying cheating slimeball going back to his assistant coaching days at Iowa. Delighted that he lost.

[kako]

Yeah, it was a clear double dribble and missed call in favor of UVA... but I also understand why it was missed. That was a weird situation. I think most refs and people would miss that.

Right after the foul on Jerome and the subsequent TO by Bennett, as CBS was going to commercial Raftery said, "Good call by the officials knowing the situation." And Barkley admitted that he didn't even know that was a rule for a double dribble (no big deal, Charles is becoming such an idiot a la Vitale).

9F

[cspan37421]

Sure has been a lot of fantastic finishes.

Pulling for UVA. DD's alma mater and appears to be a classy program. Would be (kind of) a first-to-worst-to-first storyline.

[dukelifer]

Tech turning Mich State over. Amazing

[indy1duke]

When double dribble happened I had a brief nagging feeling but didn’t consciously think bad call at time. Neither did announcers, including Barkley and friends. Became “obvious” to most fans after mentioned on TV by the CBS official.

You and I and Sir Charles may not have noticed it in real time, but these refs are professionals and theoretically the best in the business. I see no reason to cut them any slack in the last 3 seconds of the national semifinal game when their failure to make the proper call cost Auburn the game.

[dukelifer]

What an ugly game of basketball. Tech is ferocious on D.

[killerleft]

The foul call on Guy's final three was as righteous as the double-dribble should have been obvious.

Guy was hit and nudged slightly sideways even before the ball left his hand.

I feel bad for the Auburn players, and great that Pearl doesn't have a chance to get a Natty. That's a win-win. AU beats UNC, then cheater Brucie loses.

[wsb3]

I coached City League Basketball ages 10-12 for 20 years and even those refs knew & called double dribbles.

[KandG]

Pains me to agree with Kenny Smith, but the foul situation with Auburn being able to give fouls probably hurt them in the end. If they didn't have a foul to give, then the refs wouldn't have been looking for a foul. Or UVA would have had to put up a prayer. But with that foul to give, it stopped the clock again.
9F

Actually, I would argue that Auburn having two fouls to give when up four points should have helped them. Kyle Guy made his three to cut Auburn's lead down to one with 6.5 seconds left. At the time, I thought: "what is Auburn doing allowing that three to Guy when they have fouls to give?"

I know fouling when you're up isn't something every coach would do, but the clock was on Auburn's side. Using their two fouls meant Virginia would have only had three or four seconds left (at most) after they scored -- and that's assuming they would have even scored after Auburn used their fouls. Giving up the three to Guy turned it into a one possession game with too much time left.

I feel bad for Auburn after that terrible missed double dribble call, but they didn't help themselves at the end. And Ty Jerome had to be the most relieved person on the Hoos. He was primed to be the goat after that reckless fourth foul that allowed Auburn to come back from 10 down, and the game should have ended with his double dribble.

[pfrduke]

Texas Tech is an extremely well coached and well polished team ... on defense. On the other end of the court, yikes. That’s a bit of an adventure.

[kako]

>Click< >Click< >Click<

That's the sound of people on their remotes changing the channel away from this dog of a game.

<Sob> <Sniff> <Sob>

That's the sound of CBS execs still crying in their martinis about Duke not being in this game.

9F

[SavDukeGrad]

I didn’t realize that Texas Tech starts 2 grad transfers. I guess the only player I was paying attention to when we played them was Culver.

[Skydog]

CBS and NCAA praying for MSU win. VA vs TT final would be unmitigated disaster for ratings. I love basketball but I’m not sure even I could watch that.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

After a lackluster first two rounds, the rest of the games have been inherently fun and exciting.

And, the refs have been consistent. Consistently terrible.

[kako]

Actually, I would argue that Auburn having two fouls to give when up four points should have helped them. Kyle Guy made his three to cut Auburn's lead down to one with 6.5 seconds left. At the time, I thought: "what is Auburn doing allowing that three to Guy when they have fouls to give?"

I know fouling when you're up isn't something every coach would do, but the clock was on Auburn's side. Using their two fouls meant Virginia would have only had three or four seconds left (at most) after they scored -- and that's assuming they would have even scored after Auburn used their fouls. Giving up the three to Guy turned it into a one possession game with too much time left. .

We agree, Auburn should have fouled on that earlier UVA possession to drain the clock. I was talking about that last inbounds to Jerome where he double-dribbled. If they didn't have a foul to give, UVA would have had to design a play from 3/4 court for a last shot. Instead (forgetting about the non-call), they had a play from their end with 1.5 seconds left. Enough time to get a good shot up.

But Bruce Pearl is much more of a motivator than a X's and O's guy. I doubt he told his guys to do what you suggest.

9F

[kako]

CBS and NCAA praying for MSU win. VA vs TT final would be unmitigated disaster for ratings. I love basketball but I’m not sure even I could watch that.

I'd watch it, but I'd need Red Bull to keep me awake.

9F

[KandG]

But Bruce Pearl is much more of a motivator than a X's and O's guy. I doubt he told his guys to do what you suggest.


Bingo. Pearl deserves credit for getting such a limited Auburn team (post-Okeke) this close to the championship game. But the way they managed the end of tonight's game (as well as the end of their first round game) doesn't speak well of their composure or smarts in close games.

[Pghdukie]

Last year was the charge/block call on Grayson Allen. This year the 3 point foul involving Guy. Where was Tele Tubby Valentine ?

[richardjackson199]

Last year was the charge/block call on Grayson Allen. This year the 3 point foul involving Guy. Where was Tele Tubby Valentine ?

On Wendell Carter?

[Bluedog]

Last year was the charge/block call on Grayson Allen. This year the 3 point foul involving Guy. Where was Tele Tubby Valentine ?

The charge/block call was on Carter...

[Saratoga2]

Bingo. Pearl deserves credit for getting such a limited Auburn team (post-Okeke) this close to the championship game. But the way they managed the end of tonight's game (as well as the end of their first round game) doesn't speak well of their composure or smarts in close games.

Auburn was robbed, clear and simple. A clear double dribble not called followed by a very questionable foul call. Awful for Auburn and very lucky for UVA.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Auburn was robbed, clear and simple. A clear double dribble not called followed by a very questionable foul call. Awful for Auburn and very lucky for UVA.

The double dribble was missed. The foul was legit.

[duke96]

Man, which quality opponents didn’t play their best games of the year against us this year? Not many...

[A-Tex Devil]

If Tech can hold on here this will be the first final I can remember where I’ll be legitimately happy regardless of who wins. Last year comes closest and that was more apathy.

Edited to add - Tech lost its 5 top players from last year. This run is incredible.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Does Cassius Winston have a special deal with the refs that allows him to push off on his defender EVERY time down the floor?

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

The double dribble was missed. The foul was legit.
No one even noticed the double dribble until the replays revealed it had happened. Not that it makes it okay. The real travesty was Bruce Pearl’s coaching. How do not tell your guys to avoid fouling a three point attempt? And, yes, it absolutely was a foul. Even Barkley admitted it was a clear foul.

[wavedukefan70s]

Does Cassius Winston have a special deal with the refs that allows him to push off on his defender EVERY time down the floor?

That's exactly why we should have gave him the chris Paul treatment.

[sagegrouse]

The double dribble was missed. The foul was legit.

Moreover, without the foul, I think Guy makes that shot.

[scottdude8]

Bilas is going crazy on the international broadcast on that last call on winston but it was a great call. Winston pulled him down.

[Rich]

No one even noticed the double dribble until the replays revealed it had happened. Not that it makes it okay.

“No one” else is paid to know the rules and officiate the game. It happened right in front of the official’s face. It’s his job to know the rules. No excuses. That was not a subjective call or trying to determine who touched the ball going out of bounds or even a toe on the line in a bang bang play.

As far as I’m concerned this UVA win gets an asterisk as will the championship if it comes to that. It’s a travesty that the outcome of a Final Four game is so directly determined by such an obvious missed call.

[Steven43]

“No one” else is paid to know the rules and officiate the game. It happened right in front of the official’s face. It’s his job to know the rules. No excuses. That was not a subjective call or trying to determine who touched the ball going out of bounds or even a toe on the line in a bang bang play.

As far as I’m concerned this UVA win gets an asterisk as will the championship if it comes to that. It’s a travesty that the outcome of a Final Four game is so directly determined by such an obvious missed call.

Can you imagine how many bad calls and outright missed calls occurred in this game? Alll of them are equivalent to each other. The missed double-dribble being just one of many — none more important than any other. No asterisk is necessary as it does not apply.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Izzo and Pearl competing for the coveted John McEnroe biggest whiner award.

[Rich]

Can you imagine how many bad calls and outright missed calls occurred in this game? Alll of them are equivalent to each other. The missed double-dribble being just one of many — none more important than any other. No asterisk is necessary as it does not apply.

Disagree. At that point in the game officials can’t miss such an obvious call. I’m sure you’d feel the same way if Duke was on the other end of that call LOL. Are you kidding me, this Board would be going nuts! I’m no Bruce Pearl fan but Auburn was completely robbed.

[dukelifer]

Izzo and Pearl competing for the coveted John McEnroe biggest whiner award.

Looks like Tech might win this

[richardjackson199]

Izzo and Pearl competing for the coveted John McEnroe biggest whiner award.

And the winner is... Izzo.

Love seeing him whining and losing.

Pearl was actually very classy in the post-game interview after what was a very tough way to lose.

[CoachJ10]

we lose to this michigan state team? Aaahhhh.

[dukelifer]

we lose to this michigan state team? Aaahhhh.

Because we played them the second day. Tech can really play D.

[heyman25]

If Tech can hold on here this will be the first final I can remember where I’ll be legitimately happy regardless of who wins. Last year comes closest and that was more apathy.

Edited to add - Tech lost its 5 top players from last year. This run is incredible.
Glad sex crimes U Larry Nassar cover up goes down. Izzo good coach, but I personally do not like him.
Going for Texas Tech
UVA basketball is a drag.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

UVA vs TT... first one to 35 wins.

[dukelifer]

UVA vs TT... first one to 35 wins.

Duke 3-0 against the final two

[CoachJ10]

Against the championship matchup. Aaahhhh.

[J4Kop99]

Does this TT win make you feel better or worse about last weekend?

[Bluedog]

Does this TT win make you feel better or worse about last weekend?

Neither.... :(

[tteettimes]

Against the championship matchup. Aaahhhh.


And that matters how?.??

[scottdude8]

Thank goodness. I feel like I can breathe now that MSU won’t win it all. Would love to see Virginia win Monday for ACC bragging rights, because it’d hard not to like that team, and then we can claim to have beaten the Title winners twice. Small consolations, but we need them right now.

[knicknut]

Does this TT win make you feel better or worse about last weekend?

Worse. Frustrating when opponents don't play as well after beating us.

[dukelifer]

And that matters how?.??

Well when your team is home- you try to make lemonade.

[heyman25]

Does this TT win make you feel better or worse about last weekend?
same feeling. We did not play well to our capabilities in the NCAA tournament. Feel better Michigan State I do not like period.

[A-Tex Devil]

And the winner is... Izzo.

Love seeing him whining and losing.

Pearl was actually very classy in the post-game interview after what was a very tough way to lose.

Yeah, but Pearl was the one of the 4 I least wanted to have a shot. I feel bad for the Auburn kids but Bruce Pearl shouldn’t sniff a championship. And Auburn should never have hired him, so yeah. Lose in the worst way possible.

The right teams win today from a feel good perspective.

[KandG]

Does this TT win make you feel better or worse about last weekend?

Neutral. I wish it had been us instead of MSU playing Texas Tech tonight. But I legitimately felt TT could have beaten us if we had made it this far. They've improved a lot since we played them in December, and they played us really tough back then.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

we lose to this michigan state team? Aaahhhh.

Relying on freshman star players who couldn’t hit from outside.

[cspan37421]

has anyone seen Tom Izzo and Tim Blake Nelson in the same room together?

Beard going Biden there at the end interview?

strangeness all 'round

[Bluedog]

Relying on freshman star players who couldn’t hit from outside.

Or from the FT stripe....I mean, Kyle Guy was CLUTCH.

[KandG]

we lose to this michigan state team? Aaahhhh.

I don't think you're giving Michigan State enough credit. Duke was certainly more talented than the Spartans, but MSU were extremely resilient and took every shot we threw at them. It's something they've done all year, at least until Tech finally suffocated the life out of them.

Also, like it or not, Texas Tech defended Winston much, much better than we did. Tre is an incredible defender, but we really didn't vary the way we defended Winston, and we allowed him to get a rhythm eventually and set the tempo of the game (our turnovers helped).

[Skydog]

[How do] we lose to this michigan state team? Aaahhhh.
Committing 17 turnovers while forcing just 7?

[dukelifer]

Committing 17 turnovers while forcing just 7?

That will do it. MSU can play D as well.

[sagegrouse]

Does this TT win make you feel better or worse about last weekend?

Some feel we are vindicated if the team we lose to in the NCAA's goes on to the championship -- like in 1987 (Indiana) and 1988 (Kansas). Me, I want the teams we lose to to roast in hell. And I got a long list:

NYU, Chicago Loyola, UCLA, Kentucky, St. Joe's, Purdue, Washington, Boston College, Louisville, Indiana, Kansas, Seton Hall, UNLV, Cal, Arkansas, Eastern Michigan, Providence, Kentucky, Florida, Indiana, Kansas, UConn, Mich State, LSU, VCU, West Virginia, Villanova, Arizona, Lehigh, Louisville, Mercer, Oregon, South Carolina, Kansas, Michigan State.

Oh, yeah and we lost our first NCAA game to Villanova in 1955, when we substituted for ACC champion NC State. Before my time.

[CoachJ10]

I don't think you're giving Michigan State enough credit. Duke was certainly more talented than the Spartans, but MSU were extremely resilient and took every shot we threw at them. It's something they've done all year, at least until Tech finally suffocated the life out of them.

Also, like it or not, Texas Tech defended Winston much, much better than we did. Tre is an incredible defender, but we really didn't vary the way we defended Winston, and we allowed him to get a rhythm eventually and set the tempo of the game (our turnovers helped).

I personally think we beat this sparty team 8 out of 10 times. Our 2 best players had arguably their worst outing together...at the worst possible time. Just my opinion...

[CoachJ10]

Committing 17 turnovers while forcing just 7?

And today’s winner of the Mr Literal award goes to...

[UrinalCake]

I personally think we beat this sparty team 8 out of 10 times. Our 2 best players had arguably their worst outing together...at the worst possible time. Just my opinion...

We didn't lose the game because of Zion and RJ. We lost because of everybody else.

[ChrisP]

we lose to this michigan state team? Aaahhhh.

Because THESE refs actually called fouls on MSU! For those who say the refs didn't cost us the last game, I STRONGLY disagree. Refs called a total of 20 fouls in the Duke-MSU game which was by far the fewest fouls in ANY Duke game this year. Against the supposed "elite" defenses of Tx Tech and UVA, total fouls were 35, 38 (Uva at Cameron) and 26 (at Uva).

And in case you're thinking "well...maybe when it gets to Elite 8, the refs 'let 'em play' a bit more", the total foul count in the other 3 E8 games this year was 31 (Uva game), 40 (Auburn game), and 30 (Tx Tech game).

Not claiming any bias or conspiracy here - just saying the refs in our last game stunk. With our horrid outside shooting, we had to rely on scoring more points in the paint and the refs swallowing their whistles favored MSU. It's not right. Were there plenty of mistakes Duke made that contributed to the loss, yes, but the poor performance of the refs was a MAJOR factor in our losing that game.

By the way, there were 33 total fouls called in tonight's MSU game. That's 65% more fouls than in our game! Ugh!!!

[Saratoga2]

Notice that Winston was called late in the game for an offensive foul when he pushed off trying to get open. Nice to see these refs were willing to make calls.

[brevity]

What is this postgame sorcery? We wanted the JONES Brothers in Minneapolis, not the Jonas Brothers.

[Steven43]

With our horrid outside shooting, we had to rely on scoring more points in the paint and the refs swallowing their whistles favored MSU.

Agree that the refs were absolutely terrible in the Duke v MSU game. But a “horrid” outside shooting team (Duke finished the year 328th in the nation in 3-pt. shooting) that is also a poor free throw shooting team (244th in the nation) should not expect to be playing for the National Championship in 2019. That’s just the bottom line as far as I’m concerned:.

[CoachJ10]

We didn't lose the game because of Zion and RJ. We lost because of everybody else.

I think that’s a bad take. Our season was defined by how those two played this year...and last sunday just happened to be their worst game (mind you, their worst is still pretty good... we lost by 2 on a miracle 3 pter).

[tmoon78]

Because THESE refs actually called fouls on MSU! For those who say the refs didn't cost us the last game, I STRONGLY disagree. Refs called a total of 20 fouls in the Duke-MSU game which was by far the fewest fouls in ANY Duke game this year. Against the supposed "elite" defenses of Tx Tech and UVA, total fouls were 35, 38 (Uva at Cameron) and 26 (at Uva).

And in case you're thinking "well...maybe when it gets to Elite 8, the refs 'let 'em play' a bit more", the total foul count in the other 3 E8 games this year was 31 (Uva game), 40 (Auburn game), and 30 (Tx Tech game).

Not claiming any bias or conspiracy here - just saying the refs in our last game stunk. With our horrid outside shooting, we had to rely on scoring more points in the paint and the refs swallowing their whistles favored MSU. It's not right. Were there plenty of mistakes Duke made that contributed to the loss, yes, but the poor performance of the refs was a MAJOR factor in our losing that game.

By the way, there were 33 total fouls called in tonight's MSU game. That's 65% more fouls than in our game! Ugh!!!



The Duke/MSU game also had the least total foul calls of any game in the tournament.

[Wander]

Also, like it or not, Texas Tech defended Winston much, much better than we did. Tre is an incredible defender, but we really didn't vary the way we defended Winston, and we allowed him to get a rhythm eventually and set the tempo of the game (our turnovers helped).

Agreed, the successful Texas Tech defense on Winston had as much to do with their excellent help defense as it did with the primary defender. Either way, TT is definitely deserving of playing for the championship based on their consistent defense.

I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 years the two coaches in this year's title game are widely considered the top active coaches in the sport.

[ChrisP]

Agree that the refs were absolutely terrible in the Duke v MSU game. But a “horrid” outside shooting team (Duke finished the year 328th in the nation in 3-pt. shooting) that is also a poor free throw shooting team (244th in the nation) should not expect to be playing for the National Championship in 2019. That’s just the bottom line as far as I’m concerned:.

I don't disagree. I told a buddy of mine that Duke couldn't afford to shoot poorly from 3 AND from the line in the same game. But that didn't really happen against MSU as we shot a decent (for us, this season) 33.3% from 3. We only hit 61.5% from the line - which is obviously pretty bad - but I still think we could have won with that bad FT% if we had been allowed to take more attempts. And we weren't, because those refs sucked. To be clear, I don't think they called nearly enough fouls on us in that game, either. I just thought it was allowed to be way too physical for a supposed "non-contact" sport!

[Steven43]

The Duke/MSU game also had the least total foul calls of any game in the tournament.

Maybe they were trying to ensure Zion didn’t foul out and they took it too far by simply not calling many fouls on either team.

[Steven43]

I don't disagree. I told a buddy of mine that Duke couldn't afford to shoot poorly from 3 AND from the line in the same game. But that didn't really happen against MSU as we shot a decent (for us, this season) 33.3% from 3. We only hit 61.5% from the line - which is obviously pretty bad - but I still think we could have won with that bad FT% if we had been allowed to take more attempts. And we weren't, because those refs sucked. To be clear, I don't think they called nearly enough fouls on us in that game, either. I just thought it was allowed to be way too physical for a supposed "non-contact" sport!

I’m sorry, but I simply cannot feel bad about Duke losing when they shoot 33% from the 3-pt. line and 61% from the FT line (and commit 17 turnovers to boot). That’s still terrible any way you look at it. Besides, I wasn’t talking about the MSU game in particular. I was saying a team that shoots as poorly from both the 3-pt. and FT lines as Duke has this season should not have expected to be playing for a National Championship in this era. Period.

[rsvman]

I think that’s a bad take. Our season was defined by how those two played this year...and last sunday just happened to be their worst game (mind you, their worst is still pretty good... we lost by 2 on a miracle 3 pter).

Well, it was one week ago, so I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure we only lost by one point.

Not that it matters.


And I agree that if we played Michigan State ten times we would win at least seven of those games.

[gofurman]

Well, it was one week ago, so I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure we only lost by one point.

Not that it matters.


And I agree that if we played Michigan State ten times we would win at least seven of those games.

Wasn't sure who I would pull for. Found myself glad TTU won. Also glad for UVA. either one a first time champion! Go ACC.

Man UVA won in that craziness in prior game w purposely missed FT. And now won w a three and a foul call and a missed double dribble v Auburn

[Kedsy]

I apologize if this has already been mentioned (I haven't read the entire thread), but after Monday's game Virginia will have played in the NCAA title game without playing any #1 or #2 seeds (their path was 16-9-12-3-5-3).

Since the tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, this has only happened once before: UNLV in 1990 (path of 16-8-12-11-4-3).

[Wander]

I apologize if this has already been mentioned (I haven't read the entire thread), but after Monday's game Virginia will have played in the NCAA title game without playing any #1 or #2 seeds (their path was 16-9-12-3-5-3).

Since the tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, this has only happened once before: UNLV in 1990 (path of 16-8-12-11-4-3).

On the other side of things, look at Texas Tech: 14-6-2-1-2-1.

Or, in current kenpom rankings, their last four tournament games are against 1, 2, 3, and 6.

That's gotta be one of the toughest gauntlets a (possible) champion has faced in a long time.

[mr. synellinden]

On the other side of things, look at Texas Tech: 14-6-2-1-2-1.

Or, in current kenpom rankings, their last four tournament games are against 1, 2, 3, and 6.

That's gotta be one of the toughest gauntlets a (possible) champion has faced in a long time.

And while Virgina has had to scratch and claw throughout the tournament and needed near miracles to win its last two games, TT has steamrolled through its gauntlet winning by an average of 14 points. Texas Tech has been the best team in the country since losing three in a row in late January. Virginia has been leaking oil the last month, starting with the ACC tournament.

I thought TT would beat MSU by double digits and they did (barely after almost coughing up the lead - by the way, MSU’s defense during that stretch when they cut a 13 point lead to 1 was incredible). I’m worried about Owens’ ankle but I think UVA suffers the same fate as Duke Monday night and loses after playing with fire for two games in a row. This will announce Beard as one of the best coaches in the business and may signal a passing of the torch from Kansas to TTU as the alpha dog in the Big 12.

TT - 58
UVA - 55

[Bike4Fun]

Watching TT v MSU I was thinking that if we only had production from RJ and Zion, then either beats us and turns us over like crazy. Then, I looked at the TT-Duke box from December. Sure enough, we had 19 turnovers. But, TT had 24! We were 3-20 on 3 pointers!!! We had 3 scoring options that game. 19 turnovers by us, and we still won. 3-20 on 3’s and still win. Mind blown.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

For as boring as the first weekend of the tournament was, the last two weekends have been phenomenal.

[wsb3]

But a “horrid” outside shooting team (Duke finished the year 328th in the nation in 3-pt. shooting) that is also a poor free throw shooting team (244th in the nation) should not expect to be playing for the National Championship in 2019. That’s just the bottom line as far as I’m concerned:.

^^^^^ This was the problem & I thought all along it would keep us from making a run all the way. Again, I wanted to be proven wrong.

[wsb3]

For as boring as the first weekend of the tournament was, the last two weekends have been phenomenal.

True..And the regional championships were as good a games as I can recall for that weekend..2 out of 4 went to OT. I just wished I would not have been so emotionally involved with one of the outcomes. :(

[Kedsy]

I was saying a team that shoots as poorly from both the 3-pt. and FT lines as Duke has this season should not have expected to be playing for a National Championship in this era. Period.


^^^^^ This was the problem & I thought all along it would keep us from making a run all the way. Again, I wanted to be proven wrong.

This is a convenient narrative, I suppose, but it doesn't explain our loss to Michigan State. Yes, we shot 33.3% from three, but MSU shot 31.6% from three. We shot 61.5% from the line, but they shot 33.3% from the line. So shooting had little to do with why we lost, which I think was entirely due to our 17 turnovers vs. their 7 (in what was, after all, a one-point loss). And those turnover numbers on both sides were quite uncharacteristic.

Which means this loss was not really attributable to some systemic problem that was staring us in the face all season. It was due to a flukey turnover performance probably explainable by our freshmen finally showing their nerves in their first (only) shot to get to the Final Four.

[kshepinthehouse]

Watching TT v MSU I was thinking that if we only had production from RJ and Zion, then either beats us and turns us over like crazy. Then, I looked at the TT-Duke box from December. Sure enough, we had 19 turnovers. But, TT had 24! We were 3-20 on 3 pointers!!! We had 3 scoring options that game. 19 turnovers by us, and we still won. 3-20 on 3’s and still win. Mind blown.

I think Tre was much more disruptive defensively during this time period, especially forcing turnovers and converting them into fastbreak opportunities. For whatever reason, we were unable to do this the last quarter of the season.

[Indoor66]

I think it would be a lot more than that. It would be Duke gets all the calls. CBS wanted to make sure Duke was in the finals. The fix was in.

I’m sad we aren’t playing today, but glad we didn’t win on any obvious wrong calls.

Everything is not about Duke!

[DUKIE V(A)]

The last 6 games in the NCAA tournament have come down to the wire. Razor thin differences. A reminder of how difficult it is to win it all.

Last night I believe UVA not only benefitted from the non-double dribble call but from a favorable spot for their last throw in. Jerome was fouled near half court yet UVA was allowed to throw the ball in at the three point line. That said, congrats to the Cavs. They are extremely difficult to put away and have had a number of extraordinary comebacks against all odds in the last couple years.

[Saratoga2]

This is a convenient narrative, I suppose, but it doesn't explain our loss to Michigan State. Yes, we shot 33.3% from three, but MSU shot 31.6% from three. We shot 61.5% from the line, but they shot 33.3% from the line. So shooting had little to do with why we lost, which I think was entirely due to our 17 turnovers vs. their 7 (in what was, after all, a one-point loss). And those turnover numbers on both sides were quite uncharacteristic.

Which means this loss was not really attributable to some systemic problem that was staring us in the face all season. It was due to a flukey turnover performance probably explainable by our freshmen finally showing their nerves in their first (only) shot to get to the Final Four.

I agree that we lost primarily because of the turnovers but disagree that the disparity could be attributed to Freshman nerves. Our players had by that time been together through well over 30 grueling games against some of the best teams in college ball. What we had become is over reliant on two players to score the bulk of our points. We were easier to defend because we couldn't hit threes. When we tried to force the ball into the hands of our top scorers, turnovers resulted since multiple defenders were able to take advantage of our lack of balance. I also thought we weren't ready to battle as the very first TO we had was when the ball was passed to Javin, who was not aware the pass might be thrown to him. Some of the problem has to fall back on the coaching for the lack of readiness and lack of adjustment. Perhaps there was just no faith that other players could get the job done. Despite having two really excellent players, we really were not a national championship level team this year. I think people on the site feel sad because we had a generational level player and another who may be a star in the NBA but we could recruit or develop enough talent to bring us further.

[Atlanta Duke]

Good column by Pete Thamel at Yahoo Sports on how tomorrow night's presumed rock fight is a preview of coming attractions for the tournament as the one & done era draws to a close.

This isn’t a fatalist column that predicts no one will be watching and no one will care in the future because the metaphorical Zions will be tucked at the end of NBA benches. This is simply pointing out that NCAA officials should see this buzz-less title game as a warning...

“We need a plan,” said [Jim] Boeheim, the second Hall of Fame coach who has directly called out the NCAA’s lack of direction in the past two weeks, joining his friend Mike Krzyzewski. “We need someone who runs college basketball who knows what he’s doing.”

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-this-ncaa-title-game-is-a-sign-of-things-to-come-051035271.html

Maybe if Tony Bennett wins he can become a louder voice in where the game is heading as a coach who presumably can stay at UVA for the foreseeable future if he want to do so. Unlike esteemed coaches who have stayed at one school such as K, Bennett will not be leaving coaching in the near future. And unlike other high profile coaches such as Cal who will be around for a while he is not regarded as a huckster.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Everything is not about Duke!

This is true....but more is about Duke than about any other team.....and at this moment in history, by a wide margin.

[sagegrouse]

This is a convenient narrative, I suppose, but it doesn't explain our loss to Michigan State. Yes, we shot 33.3% from three, but MSU shot 31.6% from three. We shot 61.5% from the line, but they shot 33.3% from the line. So shooting had little to do with why we lost, which I think was entirely due to our 17 turnovers vs. their 7 (in what was, after all, a one-point loss). And those turnover numbers on both sides were quite uncharacteristic.

Which means this loss was not really attributable to some systemic problem that was staring us in the face all season. It was due to a flukey turnover performance probably explainable by our freshmen finally showing their nerves in their first (only) shot to get to the Final Four.

Michigan State packed it in, and I thought we took many unwise attempts to force the ball inside. Of course, the lack of credibility and confidence in our outside shooting helped create this situation.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Michigan State packed it in, and I thought we took many unwise attempts to force the ball inside. Of course, the lack of credibility and confidence in our outside shooting helped create this situation.

I agree. What Michigan State shot from 3 or from the FT line has absolutely nothing to do with how our 3 point shooting and FT shooting hurt us. It simply makes no sense to compare those two metrics. Dukes poor FT and 3 point shooting all season dictated MSU's entire game plan. The reverse is simply not the case.

[Wander]

I agree. What Michigan State shot from 3 or from the FT line has absolutely nothing to do with how our 3 point shooting and FT shooting hurt us. It simply makes no sense to compare those two metrics.

Strongly agree. It's like when people use head-to-head results of two quarterbacks playing each other to prove one is better than the other. It makes absolutely no sense – the two players go up against completely different defenses, and are literally not even on the field at the same time.

If we were even just a mediocre shooting team instead of an outright terrible one, we would be in the Final Four and IMO win the championship. It's totally fair to say that our season-long weakness did us in. Honestly, the fact that people are pointing to the 3 point/FT numbers in the Michigan State game of 33.3% and 61.5% (numbers that would rank 225th and 349th out of 353 teams if they were season averages) as "hey that wasn't so bad" sort of proves the point.

[ncexnyc]

Seems some want to disagree with Kedsy's take on what our downfall was last weekend. Did our lack of solid outside shooting and suspect free throw shooting hurt us? Yes, but those have been constants all year long.

The difference was on the defensive end. Defense was another one of our constants all year, but we only turned MSU over 7 times in the loss. Last night MSU coughed it up 11 times. I'm fairly certain had we managed to squeeze 4 extra turnovers into our game we come away with a close win.

[rsvman]

Everything is not about Duke!

Wait, what?!?



I may have to rethink my entire worldview.......

[Kedsy]

I agree that we lost primarily because of the turnovers but disagree that the disparity could be attributed to Freshman nerves.

I don't know. I'm pretty sure in the post-game presser, K attributed it to freshman nerves.


Despite having two really excellent players, we really were not a national championship level team this year.

We played the two teams in the championship game a total of three times and won all three games. If that's not championship level, what is?


Strongly agree. It's like when people use head-to-head results of two quarterbacks playing each other to prove one is better than the other. It makes absolutely no sense – the two players go up against completely different defenses, and are literally not even on the field at the same time.

If we were even just a mediocre shooting team instead of an outright terrible one, we would be in the Final Four and IMO win the championship. It's totally fair to say that our season-long weakness did us in. Honestly, the fact that people are pointing to the 3 point/FT numbers in the Michigan State game of 33.3% and 61.5% (numbers that would rank 225th and 349th out of 353 teams if they were season averages) as "hey that wasn't so bad" sort of proves the point.

The question is not whether we shot poorly. We did, most of the season. The question is whether we shot well enough to win, and since we shot better than the other team in all facets (three-point, two-point, and free throw), I'd say we did. You can't just say, "we would have won if we'd shot better" because, unless they shot 100% and still lost, every team that loses a close game can say that. In a one point game, I don't know how you can point to anything other than the ten turnover disparity as the main reason we lost.

Fact is, when both Tre and Zion played we only lost two games, both one possession games against top 5 teams. In the first loss, we shot 39% from three and 77% from the line, and in the second we outshot our opponent. My conclusion is that despite our season-long poor shooting, that's not what "did us in" in either full strength loss.

People point to a weakness and then when we lose say, "see I told you." But that doesn't make it true. Rather the facts of the game would seem to suggest the loss and our team being a poor shooting team both happened but were unrelated.

[Chicago 1995]

The turnovers that probably cost us the game, in part, were a result of MSU’s physicality in the paint. Part of that was MSU packing the paint because of our questionable shooting. Part of it was Izzo’s patented technique of turning the paint into a flrugby scrum. Cleaner play in the paint would have limited our TOs, and probably changed the outcome of the game.

As for MSU not turning it over, I think that was a result of MSU running so much through Winston and him being the entire offense with his dribble. The opportunity for those easy point off deflections just wasn’t there because he dominated the ball so much.

[Wander]

The question is not whether we shot poorly. We did, most of the season. The question is whether we shot well enough to win, and since we shot better than the other team in all facets (three-point, two-point, and free throw), I'd say we did. You can't just say, "we would have won if we'd shot better" because, unless they shot 100% and still lost, every team that loses a close game can say that. In a one point game, I don't know how you can point to anything other than the ten turnover disparity as the main reason we lost.


You can play the same game with turnovers. "Unless a team made zero turnovers and still lost, every team that loses a close game can say we would have won if we turned the ball over less". So according to that logic, no one can ever point to any stat to argue why they lost.

We shot poorly from 3 and the FT line all season. Then we shot poorly from 3 and the FT line against Michigan State and lost. While you can obviously always point to dozens of factors in a 1 point game (turnovers, Zion's 2nd foul, Zion not taking shots on the last three possessions), the simplest thing to me seems to be to go with the thing that was a consistent weakness throughout the season and was again a weakness in the loss.

[WillJ]

The turnovers that probably cost us the game, in part, were a result of MSU’s physicality in the paint. Part of that was MSU packing the paint because of our questionable shooting. Part of it was Izzo’s patented technique of turning the paint into a flrugby scrum. Cleaner play in the paint would have limited our TOs, and probably changed the outcome of the game.

As for MSU not turning it over, I think that was a result of MSU running so much through Winston and him being the entire offense with his dribble. The opportunity for those easy point off deflections just wasn’t there because he dominated the ball so much.

Agreed. Poor shooting can create turnovers if you respond to the poor shooting by trying to get all of your shots at the rim. We had a 3-4 turnovers, IIRC, in the second half trying to force the ball into a closely-guarded Zion. The spacing for those entry passes would be much better if MSU had been more worried about our shooting..

[DarkstarWahoo]

That Duke was lucky again.

I think you guys might be a little close to the situation to look objectively at some actual evidence here. (I am, too!) Look at ESPN’s Elite Eight reseeding - written, admittedly, by Myron Medcalf, who never misses an opportunity to bash UVA. Keep in mind that Duke was coming off two games where the opposition missed a point-blank shot to win or tie the game, while UVA was coming off an uncomfortable, but still multi-possession win. Duke was ruled the top team left and UVA the worst.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26393012/reseeding-2019-ncaa-tournament-field-elite-eight%3fplatform=amp

1. Duke Blue Devils (Original seed: No. 1; reseed: No. 1)

Twenty years ago, UConn made its first run to the national title, a rally that culminated with a victory over a great Duke team. The Huskies won their final three matchups in that season's NCAA tournament by 14 points combined. Perhaps this Duke squad will evoke its one-time nemesis, continue to win nail-biters, and cut down the nets in Minneapolis.

Aubrey Dawkins saw a putback roll in and out of the rim in the final moments against Duke last weekend. On Friday, Virginia Tech's Ahmed Hill missed an alley-oop that would have sent the game into overtime. The Blue Devils aren't perfect. But they won Friday's game without Cam Reddish, who reportedly suffered a knee injury before tipoff. They finished 6-for-20 from the 3-point line, and 1-for-13 if you subtract the efforts of Tre Jones (22 points, 5-for-7 from beyond the arc). It doesn't matter how the game is going -- ugly, close, blowout, thriller, physical, whatever -- Zion Williamson and Duke continue to win. In spite of the close shaves, the Blue Devils remain the team to beat in our eyes.

...

8. Virginia Cavaliers (Original seed: 1; reseed: 2)

The Cavaliers will enter their Elite Eight matchup against Purdue on Saturday with an opportunity to completely erase the memory of last season's first-round loss to UMBC. Their path to this juncture has featured a series of shaky moments in the NCAA tournament, though. They were down by double digits in the first half against Gardner-Webb in the opening round. Kyle Guy finished 2-for-15 in a victory over Oklahoma in the second round. Guy and De'Andre Hunter finished a combined 3-for-15 from the 3-point line in a four-point win over Oregon on Thursday. We just haven't witnessed a complete or excellent game from Virginia in the NCAA tournament.

And, in part, that's a testament to the Cavaliers' resilience. The nation's most balanced program (second in offensive efficiency, third in defensive efficiency, per ESPN Analytics) is difficult to beat even on subpar days. Yet, can Tony Bennett's team advance past Purdue with another so-so effort? That seems unlikely.

[sagegrouse]

No surprise here. The bettors have driven the over/under number below 120 for the championship game. "First team to sixty wins?" I dunno -- maybe first team to fifty.

From ESPN:
By Sunday morning, the total had been bet down to 118 at many sportsbooks and 117.5 at the SuperBook.

[Trey21]

I'm sure the CBS's executives are loving Monday's match-up. (sarcasm)

It's gonna be an ugly game in all likely hood, perhaps what's the most frustrating is that it has just as high of potential to just be a bad and ugly basketball game. Congrats to both programs for getting this far, and whoever wins Monday night will have the history, and deserved honor of winning their program's first championship, but I fear that this championship game is going to mirror 2011's historically bad championship game, and highlight just how much of a mess the whole NCAA and college basketball is in 2019.

This Duke team failed, but it will be remembered fondly, despite of it because there's gotta be a shift coming. There's a timeline, in the not so distant future, where no college basketball team will ever assemble, and hold as much pure (young) talent that this Duke team had.

The two final four games were crappy, this isn't because Duke is out of it - it's because it's pretty brutal to watch. UVA-UA game - It was a foul unfortunately, but that didn't stop the refs from missing, or making poor calls did it? Example: The missed Uva double dribble. It was a thrilling game only because of the last five mins and a "controversial" call. UVA's signature offensive collapses are truly memorizing, for a could-be champion. It’s like a constipated person choking and dying on the toilet. Credit to Guy for hitting the FT, feel for the Auburn kid who put himself, and the team in that situation.

Duke went 3-0 against both of them this year. Just sayin'.

[ElliottHoo]

This isn’t a fatalist column that predicts no one will be watching and no one will care in the future because the metaphorical Zions will be tucked at the end of NBA benches. This is simply pointing out that NCAA officials should see this buzz-less title game as a warning...

I know this is what you’re quoting, not what you said, I just think this take is kinda nuts. There were plenty of offense-first non-OAD teams. The final could easily have been Gonzaga vs Purdue and would have borne no resemblance to a rock fight. They just didn’t happen to win.

The media complaining about the final being buzz-less is also their own doing. The most interesting thing in basketball this season was Zion. Great kid, generational talent (a term that gets used too much, but Zion truly is one), the media went all-in on him and it went great for them.

The problem is that going all-in on Zion meant shorting everyone else (including, arguably Barrett, Reddish, etc). Once it was clear the FF was Zion-less, the media didn’t really shift gears. The articles about the teams playing were matched by the articles on Zion’s thoughts about the FF teams or his draft status.

Seriously, the finals are between two teams that have never been to the finals, led by two of the best young-ish coaches in basketball, featuring 3 all-americans and the defensive player of the year, plus you’ve got TTUs instant rebuild out of nothing and UVAs rebound from last years 1v16 debacle.

If the media can’t generate buzz out of that, they suck at their jobs.

[KandG]

I agree that we lost primarily because of the turnovers but disagree that the disparity could be attributed to Freshman nerves. Our players had by that time been together through well over 30 grueling games against some of the best teams in college ball.


I don't know. I'm pretty sure in the post-game presser, K attributed it to freshman nerves.


People have been venturing all sorts of explanations this week regarding how this year's team wasn't able to go all the way (or even make the Final Four) -- lack of senior leadership, lack of poise in a crucial game, fatal shooting flaws, injuries, roster continuity, bench depth, the draw, the curse of OADs etc etc etc

i don't have anything profound to add other than one thing I haven't seen mentioned (which relates to the freshman nerves comments above) --
expectations for this team going into the tournament were as high as any Duke team I can recall outside of 1992 and 1999, and the media coverage is even more over the top now thanks to social media.

I've always felt the 2015 Duke team benefited not only from its upperclassmen, but from the fact that Kentucky was undefeated going into the tournament. There was still a huge spotlight on Duke back then because there always is, but we had lost in the ACC tournament and the biggest storyline by far was whether Kentucky would complete an undefeated season.

This year, the story has been nothing but Duke and Zion. I'm frustrated the season ended when the kids played a lot like...kids. But that's largely what happened, and I tend to accept that as a one-game explanation more than any systemic issues or fatal flaws.

[devildeac]

I know this is what you’re quoting, not what you said, I just think this take is kinda nuts. There were plenty of offense-first non-OAD teams. The final could easily have been Gonzaga vs Purdue and would have borne no resemblance to a rock fight. They just didn’t happen to win.

The media complaining about the final being buzz-less is also their own doing. The most interesting thing in basketball this season was Zion. Great kid, generational talent (a term that gets used too much, but Zion truly is one), the media went all-in on him and it went great for them.

The problem is that going all-in on Zion meant shorting everyone else (including, arguably Barrett, Reddish, etc). Once it was clear the FF was Zion-less, the media didn’t really shift gears. The articles about the teams playing were matched by the articles on Zion’s thoughts about the FF teams or his draft status.

Seriously, the finals are between two teams that have never been to the finals, led by two of the best young-ish coaches in basketball, featuring 3 all-americans and the defensive player of the year, plus you’ve got TTUs instant rebuild out of nothing and UVAs rebound from last years 1v16 debacle.

If the media can’t generate buzz out of that, they suck at their jobs.

Duke fans have known that for years. :rolleyes:;)

[ChrisP]

This is a convenient narrative, I suppose, but it doesn't explain our loss to Michigan State. Yes, we shot 33.3% from three, but MSU shot 31.6% from three. We shot 61.5% from the line, but they shot 33.3% from the line. So shooting had little to do with why we lost, which I think was entirely due to our 17 turnovers vs. their 7 (in what was, after all, a one-point loss). And those turnover numbers on both sides were quite uncharacteristic.

Which means this loss was not really attributable to some systemic problem that was staring us in the face all season. It was due to a flukey turnover performance probably explainable by our freshmen finally showing their nerves in their first (only) shot to get to the Final Four.

Kedsy, I know you post here a lot regarding advanced stats and stuff I am not ever sure I fully understand, so I respect your opinion, your analysis and your contributions to the board...but...I'm gonna disagree with your comment that the turnover numbers were "quite uncharacteristic" (at least as far as that applies to Duke this year). I can't comment on MSU's tendency to turn it over (or not) because I don't follow them that closely. But our average TO's per game in the regular season through the E8 loss - i.e. Kentucky beat-down to MSU loss - was 12.9 per game. In nearly a third of our games (12) we turned it over 15 or more times!

In any case, quibbling over reasons we lost is kind of pointless as it doesn't change anything and we all know there are multiple factors that led to Duke not making it to the FF this year. Like most here, I'm not that surprised we didn't win it all as we certainly had our share of flaws, injuries, etc. I still think we got hosed by a poor officiating crew and, if we hadn't we would have likely beaten MSU. After that, give Coach K and staff a week to prepare for one game and...it's not hard to imagine us making it to the Championship game. Make it there and hope maybe one of the most talented and efficient college players I've seen in my lifetime, playing alongside another amazing freshman from Canada carries us to a 6th title. Now that doesn't seem all THAT far-fetched, does it? :cool:

[DarkstarWahoo]

Kedsy, I know you post here a lot regarding advanced stats and stuff I am not ever sure I fully understand, so I respect your opinion, your analysis and your contributions to the board...but...I'm gonna disagree with your comment that the turnover numbers were "quite uncharacteristic" (at least as far as that applies to Duke this year). I can't comment on MSU's tendency to turn it over (or not) because I don't follow them that closely. But our average TO's per game in the regular season through the E8 loss - i.e. Kentucky beat-down to MSU loss - was 12.9 per game. In nearly a third of our games (12) we turned it over 15 or more times!

In any case, quibbling over reasons we lost is kind of pointless as it doesn't change anything and we all know there are multiple factors that led to Duke not making it to the FF this year. Like most here, I'm not that surprised we didn't win it all as we certainly had our share of flaws, injuries, etc. I still think we got hosed by a poor officiating crew and, if we hadn't we would have likely beaten MSU. After that, give Coach K and staff a week to prepare for one game and...it's not hard to imagine us making it to the Championship game. Make it there and hope maybe one of the most talented and efficient college players I've seen in my lifetime, playing alongside another amazing freshman from Canada carries us to a 6th title. Now that doesn't seem all THAT far-fetched, does it? :cool:
Tangent that your “freshman from Canada” line made me think aboot: It was ballsy of Barrett to embrace the “Maple Mamba” nickname after the way the last “Maple XXX” guy’s career has gone.

[Steven43]

I know this is what you’re quoting, not what you said, I just think this take is kinda nuts. There were plenty of offense-first non-OAD teams. The final could easily have been Gonzaga vs Purdue and would have borne no resemblance to a rock fight. They just didn’t happen to win.

The media complaining about the final being buzz-less is also their own doing. The most interesting thing in basketball this season was Zion. Great kid, generational talent (a term that gets used too much, but Zion truly is one), the media went all-in on him and it went great for them.

The problem is that going all-in on Zion meant shorting everyone else (including, arguably Barrett, Reddish, etc). Once it was clear the FF was Zion-less, the media didn’t really shift gears. The articles about the teams playing were matched by the articles on Zion’s thoughts about the FF teams or his draft status.

Seriously, the finals are between two teams that have never been to the finals, led by two of the best young-ish coaches in basketball, featuring 3 all-americans and the defensive player of the year, plus you’ve got TTUs instant rebuild out of nothing and UVAs rebound from last years 1v16 debacle.

If the media can’t generate buzz out of that, they suck at their jobs.

100% right. Screw all of those pseudo college basketball “fans” who won’t be watching. It’s their loss. I am excited for this game — though torn on which team to root for — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. At least it will make for a stress-free viewing experience. Good luck to your Cavaliers!

[gofurman]

I know this is what you’re quoting, not what you said, I just think this take is kinda nuts. There were plenty of offense-first non-OAD teams. The final could easily have been Gonzaga vs Purdue and would have borne no resemblance to a rock fight. They just didn’t happen to win.

The media complaining about the final being buzz-less is also their own doing. The most interesting thing in basketball this season was Zion. Great kid, generational talent (a term that gets used too much, but Zion truly is one), the media went all-in on him and it went great for them.

The problem is that going all-in on Zion meant shorting everyone else (including, arguably Barrett, Reddish, etc). Once it was clear the FF was Zion-less, the media didn’t really shift gears. The articles about the teams playing were matched by the articles on Zion’s thoughts about the FF teams or his draft status.

Seriously, the finals are between two teams that have never been to the finals, led by two of the best young-ish coaches in basketball, featuring 3 all-americans and the defensive player of the year, plus you’ve got TTUs instant rebuild out of nothing and UVAs rebound from last years 1v16 debacle.

If the media can’t generate buzz out of that, they suck at their jobs.

100 pct agree w Hoo.

Also, I don’t care about exciting. I want to WIN. That’s all. Exciting is waaayay overrated. Our game Vs UCF and VT and MSU were all exciting. And guess what. We lost. Exciting means a close game. I HHHAAAAATTTEEE. close games. I want evey game to be like our first game v UK. Beat the shiz out of everyone by 20 points.

If slow and Defense wins then I am all
For it. Exciting sucks. Winning is all that matters - Congrats to TTU and the Hoos ! TTU has embodied this by just sucking the life out of other offenses. Great for them. I LOVED watching MSU get strangled and wished we could do that. MSU looked lost on O for huge stretches of the game. We allowed Dam backdoor cuts for dunks by MSU. TTU showed how defense is supposed to be played. We could learn from that. Also the fearless three shooting by Mooney. Need a CONFIDENT three shooter. How we can have all that top 20 talent and guys are freakin SCARED to shoot is beyond me

[ns7]

Kedsy, I know you post here a lot regarding advanced stats and stuff I am not ever sure I fully understand, so I respect your opinion, your analysis and your contributions to the board...but...I'm gonna disagree with your comment that the turnover numbers were "quite uncharacteristic" (at least as far as that applies to Duke this year). I can't comment on MSU's tendency to turn it over (or not) because I don't follow them that closely. But our average TO's per game in the regular season through the E8 loss - i.e. Kentucky beat-down to MSU loss - was 12.9 per game. In nearly a third of our games (12) we turned it over 15 or more times!

In any case, quibbling over reasons we lost is kind of pointless as it doesn't change anything and we all know there are multiple factors that led to Duke not making it to the FF this year. Like most here, I'm not that surprised we didn't win it all as we certainly had our share of flaws, injuries, etc. I still think we got hosed by a poor officiating crew and, if we hadn't we would have likely beaten MSU. After that, give Coach K and staff a week to prepare for one game and...it's not hard to imagine us making it to the Championship game. Make it there and hope maybe one of the most talented and efficient college players I've seen in my lifetime, playing alongside another amazing freshman from Canada carries us to a 6th title. Now that doesn't seem all THAT far-fetched, does it? :cool:

I believe Kedsy's point was that MSU was one of the worst teams at forcing turnovers: they ranked 343 out of 353 teams. We were generally good at not turning it over: 112 out of 353 teams. Those numbers would have projected us to have 11 turnovers against MSU. Instead we had 17, meaning we turned the ball over on 1/4 of our possessions. The only game where MSU forced more turnovers was against Tennessee Tech. For more evidence, look at their most recent game against Texas Tech--they only forced 7 turnovers after forcing 17 against us. And TT is worse than us at preventing turnovers.

On the flip side we should have forced more turnovers. A good prediction would have been 13. We only forced 7. We lost another six possessions there.

In total that's a 12 possession swing. With an expected value of 1ppp, that leads to a 12 point swing. That's how you turn a comfortable 11 point win into a 1 point loss. And an 11 point win isn't unimaginable since we outshot and outrebounded MSU.

The final point here is that our "weakness" in shooting wasn't the reason for our loss. It was actually one of our strengths that failed us: preventing turnovers on offense and forcing turnovers on defense.

[Wander]

The final point here is that our "weakness" in shooting wasn't the reason for our loss. It was actually one of our strengths that failed us: preventing turnovers on offense and forcing turnovers on defense.

As other posters have pointed out, they're not independent variables. Our poor shooting allowed other teams we played in the tournament to adjust their defenses, increasing their effectiveness against our entry passes and drives and not worrying as much about covering the 3 point shot. And it mostly worked! If we were even a decent shooting team, opposing defenses would have not have been able to take the strategies that they did. I don't know why some on this board are so reluctant to admit that we had a very serious weakness this year in shooting AND we were also such an excellent team overall that we could usually win despite this weakness.

[Atlanta Duke]

I know this is what you’re quoting, not what you said, I just think this take is kinda nuts. There were plenty of offense-first non-OAD teams. The final could easily have been Gonzaga vs Purdue and would have borne no resemblance to a rock fight. They just didn’t happen to win.

The media complaining about the final being buzz-less is also their own doing. The most interesting thing in basketball this season was Zion. Great kid, generational talent (a term that gets used too much, but Zion truly is one), the media went all-in on him and it went great for them.

The problem is that going all-in on Zion meant shorting everyone else (including, arguably Barrett, Reddish, etc). Once it was clear the FF was Zion-less, the media didn’t really shift gears. The articles about the teams playing were matched by the articles on Zion’s thoughts about the FF teams or his draft status.

Seriously, the finals are between two teams that have never been to the finals, led by two of the best young-ish coaches in basketball, featuring 3 all-americans and the defensive player of the year, plus you’ve got TTUs instant rebuild out of nothing and UVAs rebound from last years 1v16 debacle.

If the media can’t generate buzz out of that, they suck at their jobs.

For reasons including fair use I did not quote more extensively from Thamel's column. While the styles of Texas Tech and UVA may be a factor, Thamel's larger point is that the NCAA has built its tournament ratings success around brand name players, coaches and programs attracting the casual fan to drive the ratings that drive the rights fees.

CBS executives were spoiled with bonkers ratings from the Elite Eight, a byproduct of big stars, familiar brands and close games. ...

This weekend is a glimpse of what the Final Four will look like in the future — a lack of household names in both brand and stars, with a distinct lack of familiarity that we’ve become accustomed to at this event.

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-this-ncaa-title-game-is-a-sign-of-things-to-come-051035271.html

That would be the case with a Purdue-Gonzaga championship game as it will be with tomorrow night's matchup.

Tony Bennett is a likeable coach and appears to have a style of play that may adapt well to the post-one and done world that could allow UVA to become a national brand through recurring Final Four appearances. But for a tournament that went national in its appeal with the UCLA dynasty, then leveraged the appeal of stars like Magic & Bird along with brand names such as Kentucky, 80s Georgetown, Tark's UNLV, Knight's Indiana (at least through the early 90s), Dean-Roy UNC, and Coach K's Duke into big $$, it is uncertain what happens when the post-one & done/rise of the G league environment potentially blows up the recruiting edge of the top programs to attract the available top talent.

That having been said - Go Hoos!

[Kedsy]

Kedsy, I know you post here a lot regarding advanced stats and stuff I am not ever sure I fully understand, so I respect your opinion, your analysis and your contributions to the board...but...I'm gonna disagree with your comment that the turnover numbers were "quite uncharacteristic" (at least as far as that applies to Duke this year). I can't comment on MSU's tendency to turn it over (or not) because I don't follow them that closely. But our average TO's per game in the regular season through the E8 loss - i.e. Kentucky beat-down to MSU loss - was 12.9 per game. In nearly a third of our games (12) we turned it over 15 or more times!

The raw numbers don't mean that much. We played a lot of high possession games, but only 68 possessions against MSU, meaning we turned it over on 25% of our possessions. That was our 2nd-worst performance of the season (and our worst performance was basically the same at 25.2% against Syracuse in the ACCT), so it was truly an outlier. But in that Syracuse game, we forced turnovers on 24% of our opponent's possessions (so overall turnover performance was basically a wash), while in this game we only forced turnovers on 10.2% of Michigan State's possessions, which was also our 2nd-worst performance of the season in that regard (the worst was 9.5% in our loss at Virginia Tech). As ns7 points out (quoted below) it's the total disparity that killed us in this game.

Those are unadjusted numbers, but the adjusted numbers were almost certainly much worse for us. Again as pointed out by ns7, Michigan State was one of the worst teams in the country at forcing turnovers (my numbers say 349th) and pretty mediocre at preventing them on offense (170th). The fact that they were so much better on turnovers on both sides of the ball than their usual game exacerbated the problem.


I believe Kedsy's point was that MSU was one of the worst teams at forcing turnovers: they ranked 343 out of 353 teams. We were generally good at not turning it over: 112 out of 353 teams. Those numbers would have projected us to have 11 turnovers against MSU. Instead we had 17, meaning we turned the ball over on 1/4 of our possessions. The only game where MSU forced more turnovers was against Tennessee Tech. For more evidence, look at their most recent game against Texas Tech--they only forced 7 turnovers after forcing 17 against us. And TT is worse than us at preventing turnovers.

On the flip side we should have forced more turnovers. A good prediction would have been 13. We only forced 7. We lost another six possessions there.

In total that's a 12 possession swing. With an expected value of 1ppp, that leads to a 12 point swing. That's how you turn a comfortable 11 point win into a 1 point loss. And an 11 point win isn't unimaginable since we outshot and outrebounded MSU.

The final point here is that our "weakness" in shooting wasn't the reason for our loss. It was actually one of our strengths that failed us: preventing turnovers on offense and forcing turnovers on defense.

Yes, exactly. Well said. Thank you.


As other posters have pointed out, they're not independent variables. Our poor shooting allowed other teams we played in the tournament to adjust their defenses, increasing their effectiveness against our entry passes and drives and not worrying as much about covering the 3 point shot. And it mostly worked! If we were even a decent shooting team, opposing defenses would have not have been able to take the strategies that they did. I don't know why some on this board are so reluctant to admit that we had a very serious weakness this year in shooting AND we were also such an excellent team overall that we could usually win despite this weakness.

Not entirely independent, perhaps, but I think you're overstating the effect. For one thing, practically every team we've played has tried to pack it in and dare us to shoot, and that strategy didn't cause us to become a turnover machine in those games. For another, your analysis ignores the fact that we didn't turn MSU over nearly as much as we should have, either.

Finally, in my mind it comes down to this. We outplayed Michigan State in literally every facet of the game except turnovers (as well as stats like fast break points and a/to ratio, which are strongly correlated to turnovers). We outshot them on threes, on twos, and on free throws; we outrebounded them on offense and on defense; we got to the line more than they did. Since the only things they did better than us were offensive and defensive turnovers, I can't see any conclusion other than that turnovers is what cost us the game.

[plimnko]

EVERYBODY will be glad to see Phil go lol

[HereBeforeCoachK]

As other posters have pointed out, they're not independent variables. Our poor shooting allowed other teams we played in the tournament to adjust their defenses, increasing their effectiveness against our entry passes and drives and not worrying as much about covering the 3 point shot. And it mostly worked! If we were even a decent shooting team, opposing defenses would have not have been able to take the strategies that they did. I don't know why some on this board are so reluctant to admit that we had a very serious weakness this year in shooting AND we were also such an excellent team overall that we could usually win despite this weakness.

THIS ^^^........logical.....in context......

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Last night I said first to 35 would win tonight. I think I was wrong. Let’s go with 25...

[dukelifer]

Last night I said first to 35 would win tonight. I think I was wrong. Let’s go with 25...
The D is strong with these teams.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

The D is strong with these teams.
They should be wearing variants of the upcoming Durham Bulls Yoda uniforms...

https://www.milb.com/durham/tickets/star-wars-night-2019

[fgb]

They should be wearing variants of the upcoming Durham Bulls Yoda uniforms...

https://www.milb.com/durham/tickets/star-wars-night-2019

they should play 21 rules

[fgb]

for those of you who forgot (or never knew)...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-one_(basketball)

[dukelifer]

UVA has figured them out and Tech has not a clue. Looks like UVa may have a big game.

[dukelifer]

UVA has figured them out and Tech has not a clue. Looks like UVa may have a big game.

Bench player for Tech comes in and goes Dunleavy with three straight threes.

[dukelifer]

Game has become a 3 point show- both teams shooting better than 40%. UVa is playing better and in a close one- they will have the advantage.

[subzero02]

Did Barkley just describe Clark Kellogg in his 90s era glasses as "a frog peeping through ice" ?

[Bluedog]

I've never heard somebody say monitor the foul situation...in that the teams need to ensure they don't have fouls to give when they're down late! Hahaha. Not concerned with too many fouls, but too few. Of course, given what we experienced, not saying it's a ridiculous comment by Seth Davis, but merely slightly humorous.

[dukelifer]

I've never heard somebody say monitor the foul situation...in that the teams need to ensure they don't have fouls to give when they're down late! Hahaha. Not concerned with too many fouls, but too few. Of course, given what we experienced, not saying it's a ridiculous comment by Seth Davis, but merely slightly humorous.

Culver having a horrible game - Guy is hot. I think the ACC has another champion. Yes I am calling it.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Culver having a horrible game - Guy is hot. I think the ACC has another champion. Yes I am calling it.

You may be right - though right after you posted this Culver hit 2 shots. His first 2.

[subzero02]

Culver with back to back baskets is a good sign for Raiders. They will need him to continue to score for the remainder of the game if they want to pull off the slight upset.

[Furniture]

Culver having a horrible game - Guy is hot. I think the ACC has another champion. Yes I am calling it.

TT fan trying a jinx?

[dukelifer]

Culver with back to back baskets is a good sign for Raiders. They will need him to continue to score for the remainder of the game if they want to pull off the slight upset.

Hunter heating up and draft stock rising with every three. Don’t think Tech has enough tonight.

[Steven43]

Jerome pushing off like crazy. Why aren’t they calling the offensive foul?