UNC next year

[gofurman]

I know. Still recruiting.

But leaving are Maye and Cam and Kenny all to graduation. That's huge. Then Little declared leaving only White as a big contributor so as long as he leaves ... That's the primary 5 guys gone. Will be interesting to watch as Roy is great w multi-year players but now has to replace his best 5

The current Center (name?) returns I think. . But that should be the only starter coming back . And their big recruit is also a center - Bacot. So that may be overlap. I am encouraged !!! Basically I see them as v strong at the 5 slot ( maybe play two of them?) but not much else

ThOughts?

[proelitedota]

I know. Still recruiting.

But leaving are Maye and Cam and Kenny all to graduation. That's huge. Then Little declared leaving only White as a big contributor so as long as he leaves ... That's the primary 5 guys gone. Will be interesting to watch as Roy is great w multi-year players but now has to replace his best 5

The Center (name?) returns. But that should be the only starter coming back . And their big recruit isn't he also a center? So that may be overlap. I am encouraged !!! ThOughts? Isn't the new top 20 guy a Center?

Brooks is 6'9, 230. He is a 4 traditionally in Roy's system. They have a 5* center Bacot coming in.

If Coby stays and they land Cole, they'll have

Bacot,
Brooks,
Leaky Black,
Coby,
Cole,

Bench:
Manley,
Huffman,
Brob,
Platek,
Seventhwoods

That's a top 5 team. If Coby leaves, still a top 10 team.

If they don't land Cole or a grad transfer, you're looking at 2013 type team for them.

[Furniture]

I am sure Coby will go...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I would be stunned (and not happily) if Coby White stayed. Dude is dynamic.

[jipops]

I would be stunned (and not happily) if Coby White stayed. Dude is dynamic.

He’s currently projected mid lottery. Still, not at all out of the realm of possibility he stays.

But I couldn’t give a shift about Kerlina right now.

[CDu]

Brooks is 6'9, 230. He is a 4 traditionally in Roy's system. They have a 5* center Bacot coming in.

If Coby stays and they land Cole, they'll have

Bacot,
Brooks,
Leaky Black,
Coby,
Cole,

Bench:
Manley,
Huffman,
Brob,
Platek,
Seventhwoods

That's a top 5 team. If Coby leaves, still a top 10 team.

If they don't land Cole or a grad transfer, you're looking at 2013 type team for them.

They will not keep White AND get Anthony. Those two would seem to be mutually exclusive. I think White goes pro and they get Anthony.

The question will be which transfers they land. Or which other additional recruits they will land. If they get an elite PG, they will probably be very good again, because their system relies heavily on the PG. If for whatever reason they lose White AND miss out on an elite PG, they may struggle.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

He’s currently projected mid lottery. Still, not at all out of the realm of possibility he stays.
.

Mid lottery? That's what, 5,6,7th over all? That's not the same thing as mid first round. Mid lottery picks would be foolish not to leave.

[TKG]

Same as this year. Same as last year. 9F. 9F. 9F. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.

[UrinalCake]

Yeah they’re going to have one of Anthony or White but not both. So they will be set at PG. Bacot looks good but not elite, and he won’t crack the starting rotation until at least January if at all. They do have depth in the front court, but by that I mean a lot of guys who aren’t very good (Brooks, Manley, Huffman).

Brandon Robinson will be their prototypical shooting guard who can’t shoot. Woods, Black, Platek are all decent bench guys on a loaded team but not ACC-level starters. I don’t see them having a top-10 team, but I’ve been wrong before. I have also seen twitter rumblings that they will be very active on the grad transfer market.

[jv001]

They will still be the cheating scumbags as they've always been. Their program is built on lies and more lies. They should be on permanent probation if not the death penalty. They are evil and don't matter to me.

GoDuke!

[Furniture]

Same as this year. Same as last year. 9F. 9F. 9F. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5IsSpAOD6K8

[PackMan97]

ThOughts?

I don't waste time thinking about cheaters.

[NYBri]

9 fricking F!

[sagegrouse]

ThOughts?

UNC is just one of 14 other ACC teams, and that's all the importance I can give them. Of course, the only UNCers I run into out here are super nice.

[dukelifer]

Brooks is 6'9, 230. He is a 4 traditionally in Roy's system. They have a 5* center Bacot coming in.

If Coby stays and they land Cole, they'll have

Bacot,
Brooks,
Leaky Black,
Coby,
Cole,

Bench:
Manley,
Huffman,
Brob,
Platek,
Seventhwoods

That's a top 5 team. If Coby leaves, still a top 10 team.

If they don't land Cole or a grad transfer, you're looking at 2013 type team for them.

I would be shocked in White stays. He had a great Freshman year- probably UNC's most dynamic player. Not sure what else he needs to show.

[dudog84]

I haven't paid attention to uNC at all this year (even when they played Duke), barely knew who White was. I checked a few mock drafts, all have him going in the top 10. He's gone.

[Nugget]

Yeah they’re going to have one of Anthony or White but not both. So they will be set at PG. Bacot looks good but not elite, and he won’t crack the starting rotation until at least January if at all. They do have depth in the front court, but by that I mean a lot of guys who aren’t very good (Brooks, Manley, Huffman).

Brandon Robinson will be their prototypical shooting guard who can’t shoot. Woods, Black, Platek are all decent bench guys on a loaded team but not ACC-level starters. I don’t see them having a top-10 team, but I’ve been wrong before. I have also seen twitter rumblings that they will be very active on the grad transfer market.

Not quite sure where you're coming from here.

1. Brandon Robinson shot 46% on three pointers this year (albeit he didn't get that many shots behind Cam Johnson and Kenny Williams).

2. Manley and Brooks can both play inside, and Roy has historically shown great success with veteran big guys -- not sure why you see those two as unable to replicate, for example, the Jr. Year performance of Kennedy Meeks/Isiah Hicks.

3. I'd expect Leaky Black's production to increase substantially next year with the loss of Johnson, Williams, and Little opening up so much PT. His Freshman year stats compare well to Theo Pinson's and he became a very valuable contributor for Carolina.

I think Carolina will be typically formidable, with a rotation of, at least:

PG: Cole Anthony / Woods [Jeremiah Francis as a deep backup]
SG: Robinson / Platek
SF: Black
PF: Brooks [personally, I don't think Huffman is much]
C: Manley /Bacot.

And, they'd still have three additional scholarships to use on either recruits (maybe Top 10 SF Precious Achiuwa) or grad transfers -- especially a Wing and probably another shooter.

[Steven43]

Not quite sure where you're coming from here.

1. Brandon Robinson shot 46% on three pointers this year (albeit he didn't get that many shots behind Cam Johnson and Kenny Williams).

2. Manley and Brooks can both play inside, and Roy has historically shown great success with veteran big guys -- not sure why you see those two as unable to replicate, for example, the Jr. Year performance of Kennedy Meeks/Isiah Hicks.

3. I'd expect Leaky Black's production to increase substantially next year with the loss of Johnson, Williams, and Little opening up so much PT. His Freshman year stats compare well to Theo Pinson's and he became a very valuable contributor for Carolina.

I think Carolina will be typically formidable, with a rotation of, at least:

PG: Cole Anthony / Woods [Jeremiah Francis as a deep backup]
SG: Robinson / Platek
SF: Black
PF: Brooks [personally, I don't think Huffman is much]
C: Manley /Bacot.

And, they'd still have three additional scholarships to use on either recruits (maybe Top 10 SF Precious Achiuwa) or grad transfers -- especially a Wing and probably another shooter.

Oh my gawd, why aren’t these guys ever mediocre anymore? I thought for sure losing their top five guys would leave them very vulnerable. Apparently not.

[Kedsy]

Oh my gawd, why aren’t these guys ever mediocre anymore? I thought for sure losing their top five guys would leave them very vulnerable. Apparently not.

If UNC is a top 10 team with that lineup, then Roy deserves his coach of the year accolades. Leaky Black's stats do not really compare favorably to Theo Pinson's freshman stats, and even if they did, Theo was pretty bad as a freshman albeit with a lot more upside than Black has (#15 recruiting ranking vs. Black's #64). Brandon Robinson showed improved shooting as a junior, but little else. Brooks and Manley are adequate, not good, and Platek and Woods are terrible. Anthony (#3 Summer RSCI) and Bacot (#18) are supposed to be good recruits, though Bacot isn't a sure thing at his ranking. Getting Anthony would keep the Heels from completely tanking, but even with him they should not be a top echelon team.

[Steven43]

If UNC is a top 10 team with that lineup, then Roy deserves his coach of the year accolades. Leaky Black's stats do not really compare favorably to Theo Pinson's freshman stats, and even if they did, Theo was pretty bad as a freshman albeit with a lot more upside than Black has (#15 recruiting ranking vs. Black's #64). Brandon Robinson showed improved shooting as a junior, but little else. Brooks and Manley are adequate, not good, and Platek and Woods are terrible. Anthony (#3 Summer RSCI) and Bacot (#18) are supposed to be good recruits, though Bacot isn't a sure thing at his ranking. Getting Anthony would keep the Heels from completely tanking, but even with him they should not be a top echelon team.

I feel much better now, thanks.

[Dukehk]

He’s currently projected mid lottery. Still, not at all out of the realm of possibility he stays.

But I couldn’t give a shift about Kerlina right now.

In this day and age, if you're projected mid-first round and don't go, its akin to some sort of miracle!

According to early draft analysis, the only PG that is slated to go ahead of White is Darius Garland - who is coming off a major knee injury.

[Dukehk]

In this day and age, if you're projected mid-first round and don't go, its akin to some sort of miracle!

According to early draft analysis, the only PG that is slated to go ahead of White is Darius Garland - who is coming off a major knee injury.

And Ja Morant of course!

[ClosetHurleyFan]

I don't waste time thinking about cheaters.


Seriously? From what I have read on here for years you think about them all the time.

[Troublemaker]

I feel much better now, thanks.

Roy will probably add an impact grad transfer or two. Kedsy is correct about that hypothetical roster, but unfortunately that hypothetical roster probably won't exist.

(As an aside, I wish Coach K would utilize the grad transfer market, too. Chris Beard got to a Final Four this season using it.)

That said, if we were simply choosing between "UNC is worse than this season" or "UNC is equal or better than this season," I think "worse than this season" is a heavy favorite.

[Indoor66]

Same as this year. Same as last year. 9F. 9F. 9F. Same as it ever was. Same as it ever was.

...And thus it shall always be.

[UNCfan]

I agree, worse than this year. Doubt Coby comes back. There is a grad-transfer from Little Rock that is a good shooter that will likely fill the two spot. We will be a more balanced team next year, but we will not be as dynamic and explosive.

[UrinalCake]

I feel much better now, thanks.

I'm on board with Kedsy's analysis. Huffman and Brooks were 150+ recruits in the RSCI. Manley was 200+. I do give Roy credit for developing lower-ranked bigs, that's one of his greatest strengths and I will go ahead and say that he does it better than K. But he's not a miracle worker. These guys just don't have the raw tools to be ACC-level starters, and he has three of them taking up scholarships. Couple that with Roy's refusal to go small even when his talent should dictate it (see Nassir Little coming off the bench in favor of Brooks) and favoring upperclassmen over freshmen (sorry Bacot). If they had had a legit post presence this year, like a Brice Johnson or a Tyler Zeller, they would have undoubtedly gone to the final four and probably won it all. It's possible that one of those three (probably Brooks) makes a big leap over the summer but it's more likely they continue to be role players masquerading as starters.

We haven't seen much out of Black as he was hurt for much of the year, but he doesn't scare me. Same with Robinson. Again, it's possible they make a jump as their teammates have done in recent years. We can't discount that for sure. But overall I see them taking a step down compared to this year, and they were a flawed team this year.

[CDu]

I will continue to note two things:

1. UNC's system is HEAVILY reliant on an elite PG, so by simply getting Anthony or keeping White it will likely mean they are pretty good next year.
2. Don't assume for a minute that they are done recruiting. I am quite sure they'll add another player or two this Spring/Summer, whether it be a recruit or a grad transfer/transfer.

I'll also add a few more things:
3. UNC has tended to get more from their next-tier recruits than we do. It just sometimes takes them longer to achieve it. Guys like Berry, Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, Luke Maye, Kenny Williams, Marcus Paige, JP Tokoto, Deon Thompson, and so on were all sub-top-25 recruits who became either key starters or stars by their junior seasons (in some cases sooner). And...
4. UNC's wings are asked to do less offensively than just about anyone in college basketball. The offense runs through the PG and the bigs, with the wings asked to cut, crash the boards, and to catch-and-shoot. Very little iso ball or playmaking responsibilities for them.

Combine points 3 and 4, and I wouldn't just assume that Leaky Black and Brandon Robinson will be ineffective for them next year. While neither has established himself to this point, they could very well be effective next year for UNC given the lack of responsibility they will have and given UNC's historical success with that tier of recruit. That is if they are even asked to start; see point #2 above.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'm on board with Kedsy's analysis. Huffman and Brooks were 150+ recruits in the RSCI. Manley was 200+. I do give Roy credit for developing lower-ranked bigs, that's one of his greatest strengths and I will go ahead and say that he does it better than K. But he's not a miracle worker. These guys just don't have the raw tools to be ACC-level starters, and he has three of them taking up scholarships. Couple that with Roy's refusal to go small even when his talent should dictate it (see Nassir Little coming off the bench in favor of Brooks) and favoring upperclassmen over freshmen (sorry Bacot). If they had had a legit post presence this year, like a Brice Johnson or a Tyler Zeller, they would have undoubtedly gone to the final four and probably won it all. It's possible that one of those three (probably Brooks) makes a big leap over the summer but it's more likely they continue to be role players masquerading as starters.

We haven't seen much out of Black as he was hurt for much of the year, but he doesn't scare me. Same with Robinson. Again, it's possible they make a jump as their teammates have done in recent years. We can't discount that for sure. But overall I see them taking a step down compared to this year, and they were a flawed team this year.

I'm with Kedsey and UrinalCake. As of right now, UNC does not have the roster to compete in the ACC, let alone on a national scene. If, as expected, Coby White declares for the draft, the overall talent level and depth on the remaining roster would be among the worst it has been since Roy came to Chapel Hill. I write that knowing full well that the roster is not complete, but it's a starting point.

PG: Seventh Woods (Sr.), Jeremiah Francis (3* Freshman)
SG: Brandon Robinson (Sr.), Andrew Platek (Jr.)
SF: Leaky Black (So.)
PF: Garrison Brooks (Jr.)
C: Sterling Manley (Jr.), Armando Bacot (5* Freshman)

Only four of those players were in the Top 100 of their RSCI rating as a freshman and only one of those was in the top 25 of their class. Seventh Woods, the next highest-rated recruit, was 40th in his class and has been a downgrade at point guard for nearly every minute he's been on the floor. Woods has never been able to demonstrate that he can run a team and has an assist-to-turnover ratio well below 2:1. Robinson and Black have looked promising in reserve roles, but neither averaged more than 12 points per 40 minutes on the court. They have never been asked to create their own offense or be a primary scorer. Brooks has been a good forward forced to play the center position, but he doesn't protect the rim, can't shoot the ball, and has no way of generating his own offense. You could say the same things about Manley, but he has not been healthy and hasn't looked like someone that could contribute in significant minutes. With prior UNC bigs, like Kennedy Meeks and Joel James, they at least were productive in limited minutes during their early years at UNC. That has not been the case with Sterling Manley. Brooks has been slightly better, but if you play both, you are clogging the lanes with two non-scoring bigs. And on defense, has Brooks been asked to guard opposing wings or stretch 4's? If I were a UNC fan (shudder at the thought), that would be a big concern for me. Bacot is going to have plenty of opportunity to demonstrate he is a capable big man in the ACC. The track record indicates that it will take time for him to adjust and he may only see 20-25 minutes per game anyway. There's only been one UNC big man that has come in and dominated in the post in Roy's time in Chapel Hill. That player was ranked #1 in the country in his recruiting class. Bacot is more in the 15-25 range.

Now obviously, things are going to change between now and November. It is not certain but very possible that Cole Anthony will play for UNC next year. That would be a huge boost as he would easily be the most talented player on the roster and at a position of great need for UNC. They also need a 3 and a 4 to add depth and compete for starting spots. UNC has already reached out to a grad transfer or two. I anticipate that UNC will add at least 2 and likely 3 more pieces to its team next season. If and when they do, I imagine UNC will start the year as a borderline Top 10 team in the nation that will go as far as Cole Anthony and its frontcourt will allow it to develop.

[gofurman]

Roy will probably add an impact grad transfer or two. Kedsy is correct about that hypothetical roster, but unfortunately that hypothetical roster probably won't exist.

(As an aside, I wish Coach K would utilize the grad transfer market, too. Chris Beard got to a Final Four this season using it.)

That said, if we were simply choosing between "UNC is worse than this season" or "UNC is equal or better than this season," I think "worse than this season" is a heavy favorite.

—
That said, if we were simply choosing between "UNC is worse than this season" or "UNC is equal or better than this season," I think "worse than this season" is a heavy favorite.”

Exactly. Odds are they will be less than this season. I feel good about that. Agree Unc is just one team but our rival. As recruits finalize we can look at all teams

[CDu]

Roy will probably add an impact grad transfer or two. Kedsy is correct about that hypothetical roster, but unfortunately that hypothetical roster probably won't exist.

(As an aside, I wish Coach K would utilize the grad transfer market, too. Chris Beard got to a Final Four this season using it.)

That said, if we were simply choosing between "UNC is worse than this season" or "UNC is equal or better than this season," I think "worse than this season" is a heavy favorite.

I almost 100% agree with this, although I'd caveat that we shouldn't rule out "surprising" player development at UNC. Whether it is the system, the talent identification, or the coaching, one area where UNC has done well is getting those recruits in the 25-100 range and seeing them eventually get it in college, even to the tune of All-ACC level. While Robinson and Black (though Black has had less opportunity of course) haven't stood out yet, it's certainly not out of the question that they get there next year.

But I 100% agree that - barring them landing Anthony (or keeping White) AND adding another stud or two - I don't see it as being at all likely that they have as good a season as this year's team did. Possible, but very unlikely.

[devildeac]

The cheats' schedule next season (20 acc games):

Rivals: Duke, N.C. State

Repeats: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Wake Forest


Home Only: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami

Away Only: Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina/Article/ACC-Announces-UNCs-20-Game-Schedule-for-2019-20-129110021/

I feel unclean linking something from Idiot Central. Honestly, I do. :o

Several thoughts:

1. Nice they have to play UVa X2.

2. Clemson gets another chance to end their 0-fer (yea, right, dd; go have another beer).

3. They have to play f$u, Syracuse and VT away only next season. How good will those teams be for 2019-20? (I skipped loovil as they split this season with each team winning on the road.)

[DavidBenAkiva]

The cheats' schedule next season (20 acc games):

Rivals: Duke, N.C. State

Repeats: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Wake Forest


Home Only: Boston College, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami

Away Only: Florida State, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

https://247sports.com/college/north-carolina/Article/ACC-Announces-UNCs-20-Game-Schedule-for-2019-20-129110021/

I feel unclean linking something from Idiot Central. Honestly, I do. :o

Several thoughts:

1. Nice they have to play UVa X2.

2. Clemson gets another chance to end their 0-fer (yea, right, dd; go have another beer).

3. They have to play f$u, Syracuse and VT away only next season. How good will those teams be for 2019-20? (I skipped loovil as they split this season with each team winning on the road.)

NC State should be good next year. Notre Dame, too. Pittsburgh might be a middle-of-the-pack ACC team next season, so they could stun a few teams at the Oakland Zoo. FSU will probably be a good team, especially if Kabengele stays. Louisville might be the ACC favorites next season if Jordan Nwora stays for a junior season.

Virginia Tech is going to take a step back next season after losing Robinson, Hill, Outlaw, most likely Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and possibly Kerry Blackshear. Word is that Buzz Williams might depart for Texas A&M as well.

Clemson is going to be really bad next year as they lose Shelton Mitchell, Marquise Reed, David Skara, and Elijah Thomas.

Syracuse is going to have an uphill battle to get to the bubble again as they lose Frank Howard, Tyus Battle, and Paschal Chukwu.

This is not an easy ACC schedule.

[ncexnyc]

Seems we've had this discussion year after year on this forum and every year we get these same gleeful posts about how Ol' Roy's jon boat is about to go over the waterfall, yet somehow it never materializes.

When they end up in the NIT again please get back to me.

[UrinalCake]

Seems we've had this discussion year after year on this forum and every year we get these same gleeful posts about how Ol' Roy's jon boat is about to go over the waterfall, yet somehow it never materializes.

When they end up in the NIT again please get back to me.

The last two seasons they’ve gotten blown out by 20-ish points in the second and third rounds, despite entering the tournament as perceived legit title contenders. I’m fine with that trend continuing 😀

[CDu]

The last two seasons they’ve gotten blown out by 20-ish points in the second and third rounds, despite entering the tournament as perceived legit title contenders. I’m fine with that trend continuing 😀

I would, however, prefer that we stop losing 2 of 3 to them though. With the obvious caveat that injuries (Zion this year, Duval in the ACC tourney last year) heavily influenced both of those results.

[UVa1981]

1. Nice they have to play UVa X2.

I'm bound to say I had to chuckle at this; when someone wishes your team on their historic rival, it approaches being the ultimate compliment.

I'm also bound to say that, while I agree with most of the analysis upthread that doesn't look kindly on UNC's prospects next year, one thought appears to not have entered the discussion, or at least just not directly. It's been noted that UNC loses some of the main cogs in their team. And it's true that recruiting and transferring is not done.

But it is also likely that the five UNC starters who step onto the floor will have spent little--and, in some cases, no--time playing together. Team cohesion takes time to develop; roles must be determined and filled; systems must be learned; players have to learn what to expect from their fellows. My bottom line: if White leaves, I expect UNC to lose some early season games next season for this reason alone. Whether Williams can pull it all together in time for ACC season is an open question. And the ACC season begins very early next year.

[CDu]

I'm bound to say I had to chuckle at this; when someone wishes your team on their historic rival, it approaches being the ultimate compliment.

I'm also bound to say that, while I agree with most of the analysis upthread that doesn't look kindly on UNC's prospects next year, one thought appears to not have entered the discussion, or at least just not directly. It's been noted that UNC loses some of the main cogs in their team. And it's true that recruiting and transferring is not done.

But it is also likely that the five UNC starters who step onto the floor will have spent little--and, in some cases, no--time playing together. Team cohesion takes time to develop; roles must be determined and filled; systems must be learned; players have to learn what to expect from their fellows. My bottom line: if White leaves, I expect UNC to lose some early season games next season for this reason alone. Whether Williams can pull it all together in time for ACC season is an open question. And the ACC season begins very early next year.

Yep. Likely that you lose Hunter, possible that you lose Jerome, and you definitely lose Salt. That said, you should still have Guy, Key, Diakite, and Huff. And you add Morsell and Shedrick, and redshirt Argentinian big man Francisco Caffaro. My guess is you won't be as good as this year's team if both Hunter and Jerome go pro. But I'll guess you'll still be really good.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Yep. Likely that you lose Hunter, possible that you lose Jerome, and you definitely lose Salt. That said, you should still have Guy, Key, Diakite, and Huff. And you add Morsell and Shedrick, and redshirt Argentinian big man Francisco Caffaro. My guess is you won't be as good as this year's team if both Hunter and Jerome go pro. But I'll guess you'll still be really good.

I think Jerome comes back, and I predict Huff and Diakite to have big seasons. I think UVa will be very good again...but equalling this season will be a challenge.

[MChambers]

Yep. Likely that you lose Hunter, possible that you lose Jerome, and you definitely lose Salt. That said, you should still have Guy, Key, Diakite, and Huff. And you add Morsell and Shedrick, and redshirt Argentinian big man Francisco Caffaro. My guess is you won't be as good as this year's team if both Hunter and Jerome go pro. But I'll guess you'll still be really good.

Still have Clark, too.

[UVa1981]

Yep. Likely that you lose Hunter, possible that you lose Jerome, and you definitely lose Salt. That said, you should still have Guy, Key, Diakite, and Huff. And you add Morsell and Shedrick, and redshirt Argentinian big man Francisco Caffaro. My guess is you won't be as good as this year's team if both Hunter and Jerome go pro. But I'll guess you'll still be really good.

There is a possibility that we lose all three of Guy, Jerome, and Hunter. We would be a substantially different team if that happened.

That said, Jerome is the one least expected to leave, even though he would be drafted, maybe even in the late first/early second. Between Hunter and Guy, conventional wisdom is that Hunter, as a (maybe) lottery pick, leaves and Guy, as a smaller guard, stays. That's subject to a couple of caveats, the first being that Guy is engaged to be married (I haven't heard of a wedding date) and that can change how a young man plans his future. The second caveat: Hunter has kept his cards clapped tightly to his vest.

So there is also a (dim) possibility that we keep all three (I'd put that in the 10% range, tops). We would be a substantially better team if that happened, simply for the vast improvement in Diakite and Huff, plus the additions of Kedrick, Caffaro, and Morsell.

It will be interesting to watch, but I've enjoyed the backcourt of Guy and Jerome as much as any guard tandem we've had.

[devildeac]

I'm bound to say I had to chuckle at this; when someone wishes your team on their historic rival, it approaches being the ultimate compliment.

I'm also bound to say that, while I agree with most of the analysis upthread that doesn't look kindly on UNC's prospects next year, one thought appears to not have entered the discussion, or at least just not directly. It's been noted that UNC loses some of the main cogs in their team. And it's true that recruiting and transferring is not done.

But it is also likely that the five UNC starters who step onto the floor will have spent little--and, in some cases, no--time playing together. Team cohesion takes time to develop; roles must be determined and filled; systems must be learned; players have to learn what to expect from their fellows. My bottom line: if White leaves, I expect UNC to lose some early season games next season for this reason alone. Whether Williams can pull it all together in time for ACC season is an open question. And the ACC season begins very early next year.

:D

That, plus, I never pass on the chance to reinforce the fact those cheating bastards didn't have to play UVa, f$u, VT or Syracuse on the road this year due to the unbalanced schedule and maybe/likely/probably would have lost 1-2 more games had that occurred. :mad:

[Duke79UNLV77]

There is a possibility that we lose all three of Guy, Jerome, and Hunter. We would be a substantially different team if that happened.

That said, Jerome is the one least expected to leave, even though he would be drafted, maybe even in the late first/early second. Between Hunter and Guy, conventional wisdom is that Hunter, as a (maybe) lottery pick, leaves and Guy, as a smaller guard, stays. That's subject to a couple of caveats, the first being that Guy is engaged to be married (I haven't heard of a wedding date) and that can change how a young man plans his future. The second caveat: Hunter has kept his cards clapped tightly to his vest.

So there is also a (dim) possibility that we keep all three (I'd put that in the 10% range, tops). We would be a substantially better team if that happened, simply for the vast improvement in Diakite and Huff, plus the additions of Kedrick, Caffaro, and Morsell.

It will be interesting to watch, but I've enjoyed the backcourt of Guy and Jerome as much as any guard tandem we've had.

Even Ole Roy couldn’t persuade Hunter to stay based on his draft projections. He’s very safely in the lottery.

[TruBlu]

unc will suck next year. However, they might be good in basketball.

[KandG]

UNC's wings are asked to do less offensively than just about anyone in college basketball. The offense runs through the PG and the bigs, with the wings asked to cut, crash the boards, and to catch-and-shoot. Very little iso ball or playmaking responsibilities for them.


The above point is just fascinating (even if well-known), especially as it relates to the players Duke has successfully recruited and had go to the NBA in the one and done era.

Recently, a UNC alum on an NBA podcast lamented that all the interesting emerging pros he liked were Duke players, and he was given a hard time about it by a letter writer (also a UNC fan). The profile of the "Duke wing" has been enhanced considerably by players like Jabari, Hood, Ingram, Tatum, and Winslow -- though you could trace the lineage of that player back to Hill, Battier, Deng and even Maggette (admittedly a stretch).

Not bad for a school whose early reputation (exaggerated by Duke haters) was that of overachieving college players who became underwhelming pros. RJ and Cam (we hope) will only add to the stable of quality wings at the NBA level.

(In the interest of fairness, Jabari's upside has taken a big hit with his two knee injuries and his limited defense, and Hood has blown hot and cold throughout his career. Still, their skills have value on many NBA rosters).

By contrast, UNC's most successful pros at that position with reasonable versatility drafted in the last dozen years have been Danny Green, Marvin Williams, and Harrison Barnes -- and Green languished for a while, with his improvement on the offensive end requiring a lot of extra development. Justin Jackson may turn out to be a solid player, though he's already been traded once. Bullock and Ellington are role players coveted strictly for their shooting.

Certainly a talking point as it pertains to Duke (and other schools) recruiting against UNC.

[Nugget]

I almost 100% agree with this, although I'd caveat that we shouldn't rule out "surprising" player development at UNC. Whether it is the system, the talent identification, or the coaching, one area where UNC has done well is getting those recruits in the 25-100 range and seeing them eventually get it in college, even to the tune of All-ACC level. While Robinson and Black (though Black has had less opportunity of course) haven't stood out yet, it's certainly not out of the question that they get there next year.

But I 100% agree that - barring them landing Anthony (or keeping White) AND adding another stud or two - I don't see it as being at all likely that they have as good a season as this year's team did. Possible, but very unlikely.

Obviously, I agree that UNC isn't going to be as good next year as they were this year.

But, I do think those expecting them to fall of the table are being too optimistic, given Roy's history of player development. In particular, I think dismissing Brooks and Manley because they weren't highly rated coming out of high school is a mistake. Brooks has shown on the court that he's a solid player - and that he can finish and shoot a little; while he may not be great at "creating his own shot," in the UNC offense he's not going to really be asked to do that. It's a fair point that he's mostly been doing it as an undersized Center on defense and we don't know how he will handle guarding 4s. But, it's not obvious he can't do it. And, focusing on Manley's low recruiting ranking entirely misses the point of him as a player -- he broke his leg twice in HS and missed the entire AAU season in his Jr. summer (plus he grew 3 inches his Jr. and Sr. years) -- so, the recruiting rankings are largely irrelevant to his potential. I know he hasn't had great stats, but I thought he was very effective for the Heels in the games I saw him play as a freshman, and he was mostly injured this year. Maybe he won't be healthy next year either; but, if he is, I (unfortunately) suspect he will be much better than some think.

U.Va. 1981 makes an excellent point, however, that the Heels are really going to take a team hit due to the fact that they will be basically a completely new team, since even the "veterans" I've suggested will make big contributions were mostly either deep reserves or hurt this year - something Roy hasn't really had to deal with since about 2013.

[CDu]

The above point is just fascinating (even if well-known), especially as it relates to the players Duke has successfully recruited and had go to the NBA in the one and done era.

Recently, a UNC alum on an NBA pod lamented that all the interesting emerging pros he liked were Duke players, and he was given a hard time about it by a letter writer (also a UNC fan). The profile of the "Duke wing" has been enhanced considerably by players like Jabari, Hood, Ingram, Tatum, and Winslow -- though you could trace the lineage of that player back to Hill, Battier, Deng and even Maggette (admittedly a stretch).

Not bad for a school whose early reputation (exaggerated by Duke haters) was that of overachieving college players who became underwhelming pros. RJ and Cam (we hope) will only add to the stable of quality wings at the NBA level.

In the interest of fairness, Jabari's upside has taken a big hit with his two knee injuries and his limited defense, and Hood has blown hot and cold throughout his career. Still, their skills have value on many NBA rosters.

By contrast, UNC's most successful pros at that position with reasonable versatility drafted in the last dozen years have been Danny Green, Marvin Williams, and Harrison Barnes -- and Green languished for a while, with his improvement on the offensive end requiring a lot of extra development. Justin Jackson may turn out to be a solid player, though he's already been traded once. Bullock and Ellington are role players coveted strictly for their shooting.

Certainly a talking point as it pertains to Duke (and other schools) recruiting against UNC.

Yeah, in terms of systems, UNC is about the worst place for a wing to choose to play. They are very tied to their system, and the system emphasizes the skill sets of their PGs and post players and de-emphasizes the value of versatility in their wings. And, not surprisingly, very few of the elite wing recruits at UNC (or at Kansas) have exceeded expectations while playing under Roy Williams.

If you are a PG or a big man, UNC is a great place to go. Especially if you are a PG. You'll get to show off your full skillset as the offense very much runs through the PG. You'll get to push tempo religiously, which is always fun. But as a wing, unless you like shooting spot-up jumpers, feeding the post and crashing the glass, or getting the occasional back-cut, you would be better off looking elsewhere.

That's not to say that there aren't downsides to going to other schools. At Duke, you run the risk of not cracking the rotation at all, and each season the team's system changes to mold around the best players. So you could find yourself struggling to find your role, as your role changes every year. At UNC, the coaching staff stays pretty darn faithful to the UNC system year after year. So at least you know the role you'll be playing more or less.

But if you are an elite wing player with a variety of skills, UNC really shouldn't the place for you. If you're an athletic kid that struggles with ballhandling/playmaking but have the ability to (or are able to develop the ability to) shoot, UNC is a pretty good spot to be.

[Wahoo2000]

Really thought they would struggle this year without a more traditional "dump it down" big in the post. Combine that with Maye taking a slight step back and I'm *really* befuddled at how they were so good this year. Obviously, Coby was amazing - above even what you'd expect from a guy who was a lower tier (sub top 20) 5-star. They were about what I expected in the non-conference, but really seemed to flip a switch once they hit ACC play. Some might attribute that to them having a bottom-half SOS in the conference, but their overall analytics (from places like Kenpom, etc) still rated them as a solid top 5-8 team. Great coaching job by Roy.

I would think they'll take a step back next year, but if they keep White OR land Anthony (can't see both), plus pick up a strong wing-shooter grad transfer....... they'll be right back in the thick of it.

It won't surprise me one bit if they struggle a little bit early, but I almost expect to see Brooks and Bacot being VERY formidable by late Jan/Feb. If they surround those two with an elite PG and at least one more really good shooter on the wing, they'll be right back in the same top 5ish mix next year.

[Steven43]

if they had had a legit post presence this year, like a Brice Johnson or a Tyler Zeller...
I’ve never felt correct writing “had had”. It just seems...wrong. And awkward. Yet I don’t know a better way to say it. Anyone have any writing/grammar advice on this important topic that is so germane to Duke Basketball?

[CDu]

Really thought they would struggle this year without a more traditional "dump it down" big in the post. Combine that with Maye taking a slight step back and I'm *really* befuddled at how they were so good this year. Obviously, Coby was amazing - above even what you'd expect from a guy who was a lower tier (sub top 20) 5-star. They were about what I expected in the non-conference, but really seemed to flip a switch once they hit ACC play. Some might attribute that to them having a bottom-half SOS in the conference, but their overall analytics (from places like Kenpom, etc) still rated them as a solid top 5-8 team. Great coaching job by Roy.

I would think they'll take a step back next year, but if they keep White OR land Anthony (can't see both), plus pick up a strong wing-shooter grad transfer.... they'll be right back in the thick of it.

It won't surprise me one bit if they struggle a little bit early, but I almost expect to see Brooks and Bacot being VERY formidable by late Jan/Feb. If they surround those two with an elite PG and at least one more really good shooter on the wing, they'll be right back in the same top 5ish mix next year.

Some of it was White and Johnson playing some really great ball. They were really effective. Some of it was that the system masks deficiencies so long as you've got the lead guard to run it. Some of it was, quite simply, good fortune in their schedule. They didn't face Duke with a healthy Zion until the ACC tournament, and then they faced Duke without Bolden and with Zion probably not fresh after playing so hard the previous day. They also caught Gonzaga at home, without Tillie, and after a brutal stretch for the Zags. Those three games definitely helped inflate their efficiency. And they ate up a weak and favorable ACC schedule for the most part.

I don't think they were truly a 1 seed, and had they faced a healthy Zion all 3 times they probably wouldn't be. Probably more of a 2 or 3 seed who by virtue of a few key breaks got a 1 seed. Still, a 2 or 3 seed was a pretty good performance for them given their talent level.

[PackMan97]

I’ve never felt correct writing “had had”. It just seems...wrong. And awkward. Yet I don’t know a better way to say it. Anyone have any thoughts on this important topic that is so germane to Duke Basketball?

I believe the way to avoid this situation is to avoid discussing Carolina's past, present and future.

In the case where you most roll around in the mud and get dirty, you can avoid this by using a contraction.

"If they'd had a legit post presence this year,"

You may also stick a word in there as a modifier

"If they had only had a legit post presence this year".

[ChillinDuke]

Really thought they would struggle this year without a more traditional "dump it down" big in the post. Combine that with Maye taking a slight step back and I'm *really* befuddled at how they were so good this year. Obviously, Coby was amazing - above even what you'd expect from a guy who was a lower tier (sub top 20) 5-star. They were about what I expected in the non-conference, but really seemed to flip a switch once they hit ACC play. Some might attribute that to them having a bottom-half SOS in the conference, but their overall analytics (from places like Kenpom, etc) still rated them as a solid top 5-8 team. Great coaching job by Roy.

I would think they'll take a step back next year, but if they keep White OR land Anthony (can't see both), plus pick up a strong wing-shooter grad transfer.... they'll be right back in the thick of it.

It won't surprise me one bit if they struggle a little bit early, but I almost expect to see Brooks and Bacot being VERY formidable by late Jan/Feb. If they surround those two with an elite PG and at least one more really good shooter on the wing, they'll be right back in the same top 5ish mix next year.

I have no real expertise in basketball X's and O's other than being a fan and intently watching games all over the country, not just Duke and UNC, for many years. So with that, the only thing I can tell you, other than what CDu and others have outlined, is that UNC's system is really the thing that makes them so good year in and year out. It's the same thing that makes Syracuse so tough, except that Syracuse's zone is somewhat easier to understand. UNC's system appears to be a fast break, secondary break, tertiary break(?) scheme which generally requires two solid rebounding bigs and a frenetic PG. And they are so religious about that system that it almost takes teams by surprise when you play them. You have to get back on defense. And it's almost like no matter how many times you see it on film, many teams get shook by it or surprised by it in real time. And UNC gets enough gimmes off the scheme that it can tack on a few extra wins and end up compiling a solid resume.

It's gimmicky, in my opinion. And it's the reason UNC's players don't seemingly develop into great NBA basketball players, again my opinion, because their guys typically stick around 3 or 4 years and they are so indoctrinated in the system that they never really learn how to "mold" and adapt a la Duke's annual adaptation.

That's my $0.02. And one of the reasons I really don't enjoy UNC's team. I'm sure there's some embedded bias in there. But whatever - gotta go out and beat them, I guess.

- Chillin

[Steven43]

I believe the way to avoid this situation is to avoid discussing Carolina's past, present and future.

In the case where you most roll around in the mud and get dirty, you can avoid this by using a contraction.

"If they'd had a legit post presence this year,"

You may also stick a word in there as a modifier

"If they had only had a legit post presence this year".

👍🏻 Thanks

[UrinalCake]

In the case where you most roll around in the mud and get dirty, you can avoid this by using a contraction.

Other examples for reference:

If UNC had had a shred of integrity, they wouldn’t have cheated for decades.

If the NCAA had had a backbone, they would have hammered the CHeats into the Stone Age.

If UNC fans had had a brain, they would have recognized how dumb they sound all the time.

[Steven43]

they are so indoctrinated in the system that they never really learn how to "mold" and adapt a la Duke's annual adaptation.

Not sure I fully understand what you mean by this.

[Steven43]

Other examples for reference:

If UNC had had a shred of integrity, they wouldn’t have cheated for decades.

If the NCAA had had a backbone, they would have hammered the CHeats into the Stone Age.

If UNC fans had had a brain, they would have recognized how dumb they sound all the time.
Excellent work!

[UVa1981]

That's not to say that there aren't downsides to going to other schools. At Duke, you run the risk of not cracking the rotation at all, and each season the team's system changes to mold around the best players. So you could find yourself struggling to find your role, as your role changes every year. At UNC, the coaching staff stays pretty darn faithful to the UNC system year after year. So at least you know the role you'll be playing more or less.

Duke (Krzyzewski) has shown the ability to take brand new pieces, solve the problem, and assemble a team. This year's edition, despite having three freshman as main cogs, was 2 points away from a Final Four. (I give some of the credit for that to Williamson who played hard and unselfishly, whistle to whistle.

This is terra incognita (or, if not, at least unfamiliar territory) to Williams. He's more used to having bigs (like the Meeks/Johnson tandem) and PGs that stick around for a while so that the rebuilding isn't quite as drastic.

Assuming UNC does everything this thread envisions to find all the pieces, Williams' just doesn't have the history Krzyzewski does of pulling the whole thing off. From recruiting all the pieces--first class PG and bigs to start with--putting them together, recognizing quickly what works and what doesn't, and tweaking the machine as you grind through the season is a pretty big lift.

It will be interesting to see how well Williams does.

[CDu]

This is terra incognita (or, if not, at least unfamiliar territory) to Williams. He's more used to having bigs (like the Meeks/Johnson tandem) and PGs that stick around for a while so that the rebuilding isn't quite as drastic.

Assuming UNC does everything this thread envisions to find all the pieces, Williams' just doesn't have the history Krzyzewski does of pulling the whole thing off. From recruiting all the pieces--first class PG and bigs to start with--putting them together, recognizing quickly what works and what doesn't, and tweaking the machine as you grind through the season is a pretty big lift.

It will be interesting to see how well Williams does.

That's the thing, though: they don't HAVE to figure out how to put them together. They KNOW how they are going to put the team together. They will do it the same way they've always done, using the UNC system. Either White or (likely) Anthony will run the point, they'll fill in on the wings, and they'll throw 3-4 bigs at teams in waves of 2 at a time between a group of Bacot, Brooks, Manley, Huffman, and perhaps a grad transfer and it will be effective because those guys aren't asked to do much but rebound like fiends, screen for each other and set back picks, and finish around the rim. They will roll with Black, Robinson, Platek, and probably a grad transfer and/or another recruit on the wings, and that will be fine because those guys will be asked to just catch and shoot, run the floor, attack the passing lanes, and make back-cuts.

Williams has shown the ability to find grad transfers as needed. And he's shown the ability to land PG recruits. That's all he needs to do: make sure he has his PG and fill in a grad transfer or two at either the wing or in the post or both. If that happens, he runs his system the same as usual.

[Kedsy]

That's the thing, though: they don't HAVE to figure out how to put them together. They KNOW how they are going to put the team together. They will do it the same way they've always done, using the UNC system. Either White or (likely) Anthony will run the point, they'll fill in on the wings, and they'll throw 3-4 bigs at teams in waves of 2 at a time between a group of Bacot, Brooks, Manley, Huffman, and perhaps a grad transfer and it will be effective because those guys aren't asked to do much but rebound like fiends, screen for each other and set back picks, and finish around the rim. They will roll with Black, Robinson, Platek, and probably a grad transfer and/or another recruit on the wings, and that will be fine because those guys will be asked to just catch and shoot, run the floor, attack the passing lanes, and make back-cuts.

Williams has shown the ability to find grad transfers as needed. And he's shown the ability to land PG recruits. That's all he needs to do: make sure he has his PG and fill in a grad transfer or two at either the wing or in the post or both. If that happens, he runs his system the same as usual.

That's on offense. What do you think of UNC's potential on defense with those pieces and no experience playing together?

[CDu]

That's on offense. What do you think of UNC's potential on defense with those pieces and no experience playing together?

I suspect they will be a similar type of defensive team as usual: elite on the boards, will block shots and get steals, will allow too many 3pt shots (which will kill them some nights and play to their advantage some nights), but generally protect the paint well and limit drives to all but the more organized teams or more elite ballhandlers. And will probably wind up anywhere from 10 to 40 nationally defensively.

Whether they wind up a top-5 offense and top-15 defense or a top-10/15 offense and top-30/40 defense is harder to say without knowing who they will have. But defense tends to be less about talent and more about desire and coaching. Many of the players will have a lot of time in the system now (Brooks, Huffman, and Manley 3rd year, Black 2nd year, Robinson 4th year, Woods 4th year, Platek 3rd year). Given that their system doesn't change, those guys should know what they'll be asked to do and be able handle their particular roles reasonably well on defense. Only a few pieces of the puzzle are going to be new to the system.

UNC is pretty rarely bad at defense. Only once in the past decade have they been outside of the top-40 defensively, and never outside the top-50. The key for them will be making sure they have that PG, which is the key to running their offense at the uber-efficient level that they are accustomed to doing. If they get that guy, things should be okay for them.

[ChillinDuke]

Not sure I fully understand what you mean by this.

What I mean is that the focus at UNC seems to be "system! play the system!" instead of "read this situation, now react!"

The former seems to play really well as a strategy to defeat college teams with players that are by and large not the best in the world. The latter breeds skills that can be honed and grown into the best in the world in the sport of basketball.

Just my opinion.

- Chillin

[Nugget]

Other examples for reference:

If UNC had had a shred of integrity, they wouldn’t have cheated for decades.

If the NCAA had had a backbone, they would have hammered the CHeats into the Stone Age.

If UNC fans had had a brain, they would have recognized how dumb they sound all the time.

Well done.

[mkirsh]

UNC is pretty rarely bad at defense. Only once in the past decade have they been outside of the top-40 defensively, and never outside the top-50.

This. I know we all focus on their rigid system on the offensive end, but give credit to Coach Williams for consistently putting together good defensive teams. Even playing two bigs which you would think would lead to defensive mismatches, opposing teams are rarely able spread them out and take advantage. Part of that may be always having experienced players (and part of it may be still getting Dean Smith whistles, a la Kenny Williams's flops), but they always seem to over-perform my expectations for their defensive ability. Hope I'm wrong...

[devildeac]

I don't know which NBA Mock Drafts to trust, but this one doesn't even include the Little guy from "u"nc:eek::

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2828933-2019-nba-mock-draft-predictions-for-intriguing-prospects-ahead-of-final-four

Maybe the report of him declaring was an April 1 prank :rolleyes:.

The Duke guys are 1, 3, 5 and 23.

[gofurman]

Not quite sure where you're coming from here.

1. Brandon Robinson shot 46% on three pointers this year (albeit he didn't get that many shots behind Cam Johnson and Kenny Williams).

2. Manley and Brooks can both play inside, and Roy has historically shown great success with veteran big guys -- not sure why you see those two as unable to replicate, for example, the Jr. Year performance of Kennedy Meeks/Isiah Hicks.

3. I'd expect Leaky Black's production to increase substantially next year with the loss of Johnson, Williams, and Little opening up so much PT. His Freshman year stats compare well to Theo Pinson's and he became a very valuable contributor for Carolina.

I think Carolina will be typically formidable, with a rotation of, at least:

PG: Cole Anthony / Woods [Jeremiah Francis as a deep backup]
SG: Robinson / Platek
SF: Black
PF: Brooks [personally, I don't think Huffman is much]
C: Manley /Bacot.

And, they'd still have three additional scholarships to use on either recruits (maybe Top 10 SF Precious Achiuwa) or grad transfers -- especially a Wing and probably another shooter.

I started the thread and I don't usually speak to this topic. It appears to me UNC will take a small step back next year. A good team but Maybe more like they started this year - that level of play. I mean some say "oh we always hear this and they are always good". I didn't speak to this the past two years. Comparison - just Look at last year, in 2018 they returned Maye and Cam Johnson two known entities who are high-quality ACC players. Also had a third senior in Kenny Williams. PG was the one big Q and White filled it and developed extremely fast into an NBA player. So coming into 2019 they had one big question mark and it was filled Very well !

How many of their PGs have filled that spot as well as White did AS A FRESHMAN? Almost none. Most took 2/3 years to get to the NBA level and shooting I saw from Coby White this year. As long as he leaves that position should be a notch or so lower easily.

Next year they have two or three question marks (at least at high-ACC level) and will be Lucky if all three question marks are answered as well as White answered the call at PG this year. I mean are Leaky Black and Seventh Woods etc going to be high-level ACC guys?

My guess. At worst top 20 at best top 10. But not a top 5 next year.
And to show I am objective I think Duke and UNC could both be top 10/15 next year (very strong but not elite) depending on how recruiting finishes. At Duke we need a PG and a PF ! And shooting MUST improve... Please ! Lol. The shooters are on campus but must regain Confidence and learn defense - Jack White, O'Connell, Baker need to spend all day every day shooting all summer long. Our team will at least have several upperclassmen. Those I just mentioned plus hopefully DeLaurier and Bolden and Goldwire

[duke2x]

(As an aside, I wish Coach K would utilize the grad transfer market, too. Chris Beard got to a Final Four this season using it.)

I agree. Transfers are one change he hasn't embraced, particularly selective addition of free agent seniors. It's worked very well for baseball and helped lacrosse.

Their schedule is similar to ours. Assuming UVA runs away with the ACC regular season, 15-5 or 14-6 could get you second place.

[phaedrus]

UNC is pretty rarely bad at defense. Only once in the past decade have they been outside of the top-40 defensively, and never outside the top-50. The key for them will be making sure they have that PG, which is the key to running their offense at the uber-efficient level that they are accustomed to doing. If they get that guy, things should be okay for them.

Rarely bad, but also rarely great (only top 10 once in the last 10 years), which probably speaks to an established system with a high floor and a relatively low ceiling (or roof).

[CDu]

Rarely bad, but also rarely great (only top 10 once in the last 10 years), which probably speaks to an established system with a high floor and a relatively low ceiling (or roof).

Yep. They run what they run defensively. And it generally does well, but rarely is elite. They crowd the paint, rebound really well, but are suspect against 3s. At the college level, this works a lot because most teams aren’t good enough or disciplined enough to punish it. But good shooting teams typically hurt them, and they don’t typically have an answer if you start making shots other than to try to score with you. Because their two-big system inherently sets them up to struggle on perimeter defense but excel inside.

[jv001]

Yep. They run what they run defensively. And it generally does well, but rarely is elite. They crowd the paint, rebound really well, but are suspect against 3s. At the college level, this works a lot because most teams aren’t good enough or disciplined enough to punish it. But good shooting teams typically hurt them, and they don’t typically have an answer if you start making shots other than to try to score with you. Because their two-big system inherently sets them up to struggle on perimeter defense but excel inside.

I'm surprised old roy hasn't used the deano trap defense. The cheats used to call it the run and jump defense. They would trap the ball anywhere on the court. But in Dean's day they had the athletes to make that defense work. As you said in another post, they haven't had the good wing players. Antwan Jamison, Bobby Jones, Billy Cunningham, etc. could pull it off. In the end though, they will always be the cheating team from Chapel Hell. GoDuke!

[smvalkyries]

Can someone please tell a science major why two had's are needed when one conveys the same message?
Re the Cheats who cares, why not just schedule a NBA G-League team or the Durham Bulls, since the unc-ch game isn't the same anymore? I am much more interested in Hoo UVA has coming back because not only will they be better than the Cheats but I respect them as a university and basketball team. Wasn't South Carolina expelled from the ACC for cheating or did they have the integrity to resign after being caught?

[smvalkyries]

Sorry I forget South Carolina quit back when the ACC had the integrity to enforce its rules against cheating.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Coby White announced via Instagram that he is going to the NBA Draft.

UNC is officially losing 4 of its 5 starters and one of its bench players.

[devildeac]

Coby White announced via Instagram that he is going to the NBA Draft.

UNC is officially losing 4 of its 5 starters and one of its bench players.

Ahhhhh, see ya!

[UrinalCake]

Roy had two lottery picks surrounded by veterans and failed to get past the sweet 16? Unacceptable!

[CDu]

Coby White announced via Instagram that he is going to the NBA Draft.

UNC is officially losing 4 of its 5 starters and one of its bench players.

I'll feel better about this if they don't land Cole Anthony. If they get Anthony, that's probably a wash as I think they were mutually exclusive.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Sorry I forget South Carolina quit back when the ACC had the integrity to enforce its rules against cheating.

They quit over football......Paul Dietzel winning tug of war against Frank McGuire, who wanted to stay.

[ndkjr70]

I'll feel better about this if they don't land Cole Anthony. If they get Anthony, that's probably a wash as I think they were mutually exclusive.

There’s literally zero chance a freshman Cole Anthony is a “wash” compared to a sophomore Coby White.

Coby white would’ve been in the running for ACC POY

[CDu]

There’s literally zero chance a freshman Cole Anthony is a “wash” compared to a sophomore Coby White.

Coby white would’ve been in the running for ACC POY

I disagree. There are plenty of examples of freshmen coming in and being PoY. Anthony is a higher-rated recruit than White was. And I think White was buoyed somewhat by the system. I could easily see Anthony being as good as White would be next year.

[ndkjr70]

I disagree. There are plenty of examples of freshmen coming in and being PoY. Anthony is a higher-rated recruit than White was. And I think White was buoyed somewhat by the system. I could easily see Anthony being as good as White would be next year.

You watched a spectacularly different Coby White than I did this year. It doesn’t even sound like we’re talking about the same player.

[CDu]

You watched a spectacularly different Coby White than I did this year. It doesn’t even sound like we’re talking about the same player.

And it sounds like you haven’t watched any of Cole Anthony.

Coby White would certainly have contended for ACC PoY. And Cole Anthony might just do that instead. He is that good.

[DavidBenAkiva]

And it sounds like you haven’t watched any of Cole Anthony.

Coby White would certainly have contended for ACC PoY. And Cole Anthony might just do that instead. He is that good.

I understand the inclination to set expectation high for players. But it is also the case that some players struggle when they get to college. White had the fortune of playing alongside several other scorers that were expected to carry the load. Anthony will be expected to carry the offense from day 1 without any proven scorers around him. It's a very different animal. For every Kyrie Irving, there is a Trevon Duval, if it were. A highly-touted prospect could impress or disappoint.

[CDu]

I understand the inclination to set expectation high for players. But it is also the case that some players struggle when they get to college. White had the fortune of playing alongside several other scorers that were expected to carry the load. Anthony will be expected to carry the offense from day 1 without any proven scorers around him. It's a very different animal. For every Kyrie Irving, there is a Trevon Duval, if it were. A highly-touted prospect could impress or disappoint.

Is it possible Anthony fails to star? Sure. But based on recent history, more often than not the top guys are studs. And when you add in that UNC is very PG-friendly, I tend to think Anthony will excel there. Hopefully he goes elsewhere.

[UrinalCake]

White had the fortune of playing alongside several other scorers that were expected to carry the load. Anthony will be expected to carry the offense from day 1 without any proven scorers around him. It's a very different animal.

Except that White was the one carrying the load for his older teammates. He was the only player on their team who could create his own shot. Johnson and Maye fed off of him, not the other way around.

[moonpie23]

it might just be me, but i'm kinda tired of hearing how awful the cheats are going to be, when they are beating us regularly, going to back to back finals, and winning one..

maybe we should lay off a bit until we can be clearly better than they are...

[Natty_B]

it might just be me, but i'm kinda tired of hearing how awful the cheats are going to be, when they are beating us regularly, going to back to back finals, and winning one..

maybe we should lay off a bit until we can be clearly better than they are...

Eh don’t think you can say “Back to back finals” anymore unless it’s followed by blow out losses in the rounds of 32 and 16.

[ndkjr70]

Is it possible Anthony fails to star? Sure. But based on recent history, more often than not the top guys are studs. And when you add in that UNC is very PG-friendly, I tend to think Anthony will excel there. Hopefully he goes elsewhere.

I mean, I just disagree. Nassir Little was the most highly touted UNC freshman since Harrison Barnes, and he flopped nearly as hard as Cam Reddish.

He might come in and be great, I'm not saying there's no chance of that. But if I'm a betting man, it's easy money to say Coby White would be 1st team ACC and borderline ACC PoY if he were coming back. It's far more of a gamble to say that about Cole Anthony.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I mean, I just disagree. Nassir Little was the most highly touted UNC freshman since Harrison Barnes, and he flopped nearly as hard as Cam Reddish.

He might come in and be great, I'm not saying there's no chance of that. But if I'm a betting man, it's easy money to say Coby White would be 1st team ACC and borderline ACC PoY if he were coming back. It's far more of a gamble to say that about Cole Anthony.

I disagree with what you wrote. Little flopped harder than Reddish. Little went from someone that many were wondering if he would be selected first overall. Now they wonder if he will be selected in the first round. Reddish went from being a consensus top 3 pick to a consensus top 5 pick. His shot was inconsistent and he wasn't very good at finishing at the rim, often getting called for a charge. But Reddish was a consistently great defender throughout the year and made some great player throughout the postseason.

[JNort]

I mean, I just disagree. Nassir Little was the most highly touted UNC freshman since Harrison Barnes, and he flopped nearly as hard as Cam Reddish.

He might come in and be great, I'm not saying there's no chance of that. But if I'm a betting man, it's easy money to say Coby White would be 1st team ACC and borderline ACC PoY if he were coming back. It's far more of a gamble to say that about Cole Anthony.

I wouldn't say he flopped, just he had a coach who didn't wanna use him like most would. Little was good but never got the oppurtunities consistently.

[Steven43]

And it sounds like you haven’t watched any of Cole Anthony.

Coby White would certainly have contended for ACC PoY. And Cole Anthony might just do that instead. He is that good.

Weren’t Nassir Little and Cam Reddish supposed to be roughly on the level of Anthony when they came out of high school? Different positions than Anthony, yes, but their recruiting rankings were similar. And Anthony’s is not supposed to be a particularly loaded class, right? Why would he be any more of a surefire great college player than those two guys turned out to be?

[flyingdutchdevil]

I disagree with what you wrote. Little flopped harder than Reddish. Little went from someone that many were wondering if he would be selected first overall. Now they wonder if he will be selected in the first round. Reddish went from being a consensus top 3 pick to a consensus top 5 pick. His shot was inconsistent and he wasn't very good at finishing at the rim, often getting called for a charge. But Reddish was a consistently great defender throughout the year and made some great player throughout the postseason.

This is a little disingenuous. Little isn't a "borderline first round pick". He's lottery. Most draft boards still have him from mid-to-late lottery.

Cam also isn't a clear top 5 pick. He's certainly lottery, but his range is 4-to-late lottery.

Did Little underperform compared to expectations? Yup. Did Cam underperform compared to expectations? Yup.

[UrinalCake]

Eh don’t think you can say “Back to back finals” anymore unless it’s followed by blow out losses in the rounds of 32 and 16.

I don't think you can say "back to back finals" unless it's followed by "multiple five star McDonald's All-Americans who stayed until their junior and senior years." And also cheating.

[Kedsy]

it might just be me, but i'm kinda tired of hearing how awful the cheats are going to be, when they are beating us regularly, going to back to back finals, and winning one..

maybe we should lay off a bit until we can be clearly better than they are...

As others have pointed out, your statement is kind of old news. Currently UNC hasn't even gone to back-to-back Sweet 16s. And in the last five seasons, we've beaten them more than they've beaten us (7 to 6).

[Dukehk]

it might just be me, but i'm kinda tired of hearing how awful the cheats are going to be, when they are beating us regularly, going to back to back finals, and winning one..

maybe we should lay off a bit until we can be clearly better than they are...

I think its safe to say they won't be repeating any national title runs next year or for the forseeable future actually.

Their back to back runs are again predicated on having top 15-20 guys stay multiple years..in fact some of them went to the maximum of their eligibility which is beyond belief in this day and age.

With white and nasir little gone, they lose any future players they usually are so good at keeping until their junior/senior years.

They have a decent freshman class right now (assuming cole anthony commits) but bacot and anthony are probably gone after 1 year as well.

Unless they can pull a couple of luke maye's and cam johnsons out the bag from nowhere, they are going to struggle even MORE than they did this year.

[Steven43]

Unless they can pull a couple of luke maye's and cam johnsons out the bag from nowhere, they are going to struggle even MORE than they did this year.

Roy will grab a good player or two — like Cam Johnson — off the transfer rolls every year if he needs to. I wish K would do the same.

[Dukehk]

Roy will grab a good player or two — like Cam Johnson — off the transfer rolls every year if he needs to. I wish K would do the same.

Maybe. Maybe not.

Its a crap shoot with these grad transfers, and I don't recall anybody having wild success with these types of players usually coming in for one year only.

Not to mention that these guys have to sit out a year before playing in most cases.

I can confidently say that we will be the better team next year assuming Tre Jones returns and Matthew Hurt commits.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Roy will grab a good player or two — like Cam Johnson — off the transfer rolls every year if he needs to. I wish K would do the same.

There aren't a player or two like Cam Johnson every year.

[CDu]

As others have pointed out, your statement is kind of old news. Currently UNC hasn't even gone to back-to-back Sweet 16s. And in the last five seasons, we've beaten them more than they've beaten us (7 to 6).

Let’s be consistent here. You can’t say “old news” to a title 3 seasons ago and a finals loss 4 seasons ago and then immediately talk about our record vs them over a 5-year period. They are 4-2 against us the last 2 years if we are excluding the years they made title game runs.

[CDu]

I mean, I just disagree. Nassir Little was the most highly touted UNC freshman since Harrison Barnes, and he flopped nearly as hard as Cam Reddish.

He might come in and be great, I'm not saying there's no chance of that. But if I'm a betting man, it's easy money to say Coby White would be 1st team ACC and borderline ACC PoY if he were coming back. It's far more of a gamble to say that about Cole Anthony.

Actually, you quite literally said there is zero chance of Anthony being as good as White would have been.

And you’ve cited two “flops” by Williams, but those were wings. Roy has never done well with wings. Conversely, his top-tier and even second-tier PGs rarely ever miss. It is a system designed for PGs and bigs.

Also, you might want to check Little’s per-40 stats: 21.5 puts, 10.1 rebs, 48% shooting. He wasn’t necessarily a flop. He just wasn’t used by Roy.

[Dukehk]

I disagree with what you wrote. Little flopped harder than Reddish. Little went from someone that many were wondering if he would be selected first overall. Now they wonder if he will be selected in the first round. Reddish went from being a consensus top 3 pick to a consensus top 5 pick. His shot was inconsistent and he wasn't very good at finishing at the rim, often getting called for a charge. But Reddish was a consistently great defender throughout the year and made some great player throughout the postseason.

Reddish's game is probably more suited to the pro level. With an extended 3 point arc, less charges called and more spacing - he will excel in the NBA. When Reddish gets to the individual workouts, I'm pretty sure most GM's in the top 3-5 will be drooling over his measurables starting with his wingspan.

I think little might benefit in the pros too, but he might need to develop more of a jumpshot/3 point shot before we see the best of him. Don't see him any worse than a stanley johnson or marvin williams or michael kidd gilchrist.

[UrinalCake]

And you’ve cited two “flops” by Williams, but those were wings. Roy has never done well with wings. Conversely, his top-tier and even second-tier PGs rarely ever miss. It is a system designed for PGs and bigs.

Except for Seventh Woods and Jailbird Felon.

[CDu]

Except for Seventh Woods and Jailbird Felon.

I didn't say "never."

[elvis14]

Also, you might want to check Little’s per-40 stats: 21.5 puts, 10.1 rebs, 48% shooting. He wasn’t necessarily a flop. He just wasn’t used by Roy.

You can say that Little flopped because of Roy but that doesn't mean he didn't flop. This guy was supposed to be so good that he would have been starting (even for holdem-back Roy) by the time ACC games rolled around and was hailed as a Zion Killer ('cause killers kill). But he was just a role player who did OK and had a few good games. Note it may not be his fault nor his play that caused him to be reduced to a role player but that's what he ended up being and for a top 4 recruit....that's flopping.

[Natty_B]

Roy will grab a good player or two — like Cam Johnson — off the transfer rolls every year if he needs to. I wish K would do the same.

Cam Johnson was a super rare grad transfer because he had two years of eligibility left.

[ndkjr70]

Actually, you quite literally said there is zero chance of Anthony being as good as White would have been.

And you’ve cited two “flops” by Williams, but those were wings. Roy has never done well with wings. Conversely, his top-tier and even second-tier PGs rarely ever miss. It is a system designed for PGs and bigs.

Also, you might want to check Little’s per-40 stats: 21.5 puts, 10.1 rebs, 48% shooting. He wasn’t necessarily a flop. He just wasn’t used by Roy.

It feels like we're arguing semantics instead of the topic, so this'll be my last post on the matter.

You indicated Coby White <> Cole Anthony would be a wash. I will repeat what I've said multiple times; I would be positively gobsmacked if that's the case.

Of course it's a possibility. But there's also a possibility that Zion Williamson returns to Duke next year.

An incoming freshman is significantly less of a "sure thing" compared to a returning superstar sophomore point guard. I am surprised you disagree.

[ChillinDuke]

Cam Johnson was a super rare grad transfer because he had two years of eligibility left.

He was also a super rare transfer in that he was allowed to transfer within the same conference. Say or think whatever you want about transfer rules, but Roy pulled off a real moonshot there. An already solid, 2-year, intra-conference transfer.

So annoying.

- Chillin

[MarkD83]

I figured this post would be safe buried in a thread about unc since it is meant to stir the pot....

Imagine if you will that OADs disappear tomorrow meaning all of the top incoming recruits committed to Duke and unc go pro immediately.....

How would Duke and unc do next year if they only had rosters of upper classmen?

[ChillinDuke]

I figured this post would be safe buried in a thread about unc since it is meant to stir the pot...

Imagine if you will that OADs disappear tomorrow meaning all of the top incoming recruits committed to Duke and unc go pro immediately....

How would Duke and unc do next year if they only had rosters of upper classmen?

I mean, poor. We'd do quite poor.

But imagine if Duke and UNC's teams turned into slugs instead of humans. And the NCAA required the slugs to play against normal human teams of everyone else. How would Duke and UNC fair then?

Yeah, exactly.

- Chillin

[yancem]

It feels like we're arguing semantics instead of the topic, so this'll be my last post on the matter.

You indicated Coby White <> Cole Anthony would be a wash. I will repeat what I've said multiple times; I would be positively gobsmacked if that's the case.

Of course it's a possibility. But there's also a possibility that Zion Williamson returns to Duke next year.

An incoming freshman is significantly less of a "sure thing" compared to a returning superstar sophomore point guard. I am surprised you disagree.

I think that you may be underselling Anthony a little. I agree that freshmen are more of a crap-shoot then proven sophomores but Anthony is significantly more highly rated and the son of a former college and nba star. I think the possibility of Anthony being a bust are fairly remote. Also, something I haven't seen mentioned about White is that next year he wouldn't benefit from the shooters he had around him this year. Johnson was a great shooter and Williams and Maye may have had down years percentage wise but based on reputation effectively spaced the floor. Who spaces the floor for unc next year to create driving lanes for White? Also, who does he pass the ball to in general? I'm not saying he would cease to be effective or even take a step back but he would definitely be the total focus of opposing defenses which might make being acc POY a little more challenging.

I do agree that if I were a unc fan (shutter at the thought) I would prefer White based on experience/continuity and higher floor, much like I would prefer a sophomore Jones to a reclassed Hampton. But the ceiling for Anthony and Hampton is probably higher than White or Jones.

[jv001]

I think that you may be underselling Anthony a little. I agree that freshmen are more of a crap-shoot then proven sophomores but Anthony is significantly more highly rated and the son of a former college and nba star. I think the possibility of Anthony being a bust are fairly remote. Also, something I haven't seen mentioned about White is that next year he wouldn't benefit from the shooters he had around him this year. Johnson was a great shooter and Williams and Maye may have had down years percentage wise but based on reputation effectively spaced the floor. Who spaces the floor for unc next year to create driving lanes for White? Also, who does he pass the ball to in general? I'm not saying he would cease to be effective or even take a step back but he would definitely be the total focus of opposing defenses which might make being acc POY a little more challenging.

I do agree that if I were a unc fan (shutter at the thought) I would prefer White based on experience/continuity and higher floor, much like I would prefer a sophomore Jones to a reclassed Hampton. But the ceiling for Anthony and Hampton is probably higher than White or Jones.

I wonder if Anthony had committed to Duke, how would we feel about him. I guess it would be like the discussions regarding OADs. GoDuke!

[UrinalCake]

Imagine if you will that OADs disappear tomorrow meaning all of the top incoming recruits committed to Duke and unc go pro immediately...

If the NBA decided today to elimate the one year rule, I think only Carey would declare. Given that all the high school seniors would be competing with the one year (and more) college players for draft spots, I don’t think Ellis or Moore would go. And honestly, it’s possible Carey would still come to Duke. He’d be drafted what, maybe 15-20? And Zion showed how much a year at Duke can boost your profile and marketability. So we’d take a hit for sure, but we’d still be a top-25 team. And other schools would be hurt too by the loss of their top recruits.

Tre would almost definitely come back because there’s no way he’d get picked in this double draft. Maybe Cam slides to the bottom part of the lottery and decides to return as well.

CHeats would have no shot at Anthony but otherwise would be unaffected, unless Little decided his draft projection has fallen too much and wants to now come back.

[arnie]

I figured this post would be safe buried in a thread about unc since it is meant to stir the pot...

Imagine if you will that OADs disappear tomorrow meaning all of the top incoming recruits committed to Duke and unc go pro immediately....

How would Duke and unc do next year if they only had rosters of upper classmen?

A starting lineup of Bolden, Javin, White/Baker, O’Connell and Goldwire would be ACC average. Of course the depth would be poor with only one likely sub used. We’d still destroy the Heels IMO.

[ChillinDuke]

A starting lineup of Bolden, Javin, White/Baker, O’Connell and Goldwire would be ACC average. Of course the depth would be poor with only one likely sub used. We’d still destroy the Heels IMO.

We'd struggle mightily to score with that lineup. And by mightily, I mean mightily.

- Chillin

[proelitedota]

We'd struggle mightily to score with that lineup. And by mightily, I mean mightily.

- Chillin

Only AOC has any shot creation abilities.

That being said, this is probably a better team than 2006-2007.

[arnie]

We'd struggle mightily to score with that lineup. And by mightily, I mean mightily.

- Chillin

Jack White with the corner three - automatic😀

[Wahoo2000]

Count me in with the group that would think Freshman Cole Anthony will be equal to or greater than Freshman Coby White. I would admit that there's a good chance a SOPHOMORE Coby White would be better, and also a not-insignificant chance that Anthony could flop. However, the first part of the last sentence is irrelevant since most in this thread have been comparing UNC 18-19 with UNC 19-20, and as to the second part? I just don't see it for 2 reasons:
1) Consensus top 3-4 guys don't flop that often,
2) When they do, it's usually because that coach/scheme isn't specifically suited to developing that player's style/position

I'd put the likelihood at Anthony, IF he attends UNC, being in the mix for 1st team All-ACC or just outside it at 80%+. It's fine to disagree, but there's not much reason too unless your reasoning is based on rivalry/dislike. It's just a fact that this player, at that ranking, coming into this type of situation, is set up to succeed.

As for their overall team fortunes? I think it will depend largely on these 2 things:
1) Can Roy find a sweet-shooting wing to pick up some of the slack of Cam Johnson's loss?
2) How much will the bigs improve in the offseason and during the season?

I really appreciate Roy's ability to coach up traditional 4s and 5s, and HONESTLY think that by Feb/March of 2020, Jr Brooks/Fr Bacot will be a better fit for what UNC likes to do than Sr Maye/Jr Brooks. I also think out of all the returning wings, at least one or two will step up to the level of Kenny Williams. The real Q for me regarding their overall success will be whether Roy can find a top tier grad transfer wing with a terrific stroke from 3 (and of course if they are able to garner the commitment from Anthony). If all of those pieces fall into place, I think they'll be excellent again next year. Maybe not a 1-seed in the tourney, but certainly a consensus top 5-10ish team nationally.

[robed deity]

I'm probably the last to realize that Cole Anthony is Greg Anthony's son. Here's hoping the cheat games are a little more Duke-UNLV '91 and less '90.

[Kedsy]

A starting lineup of Bolden, Javin, White/Baker, O’Connell and Goldwire would be ACC average. Of course the depth would be poor with only one likely sub used. We’d still destroy the Heels IMO.

That lineup would not be ACC average. It would struggle to win more than a game or two in league play.


Only AOC has any shot creation abilities.

That being said, this is probably a better team than 2006-2007.

The 2006-07 team had four NBA players, seven guys ranked in the RSCI top 30 coming out of high school, and ten guys ranked in the top 75. The lineup sited above might not have any NBA players (maybe one or two but that's probably a stretch), just one guy in the top 30, and four guys in the top 75. The 2007 team would wipe the floor with this hypothetical lineup.

[arnie]

That lineup would not be ACC average. It would struggle to win more than a game or two in league play.



The 2006-07 team had four NBA players, seven guys ranked in the RSCI top 30 coming out of high school, and ten guys ranked in the top 75. The lineup sited above might not have any NBA players (maybe one or two but that's probably a stretch), just one guy in the top 30, and four guys in the top 75. The 2007 team would wipe the floor with this hypothetical lineup.

You mean a class with mainly seniors and juniors, several ranked 10-100 out of HS would only win only one ACC game or two? And you’re very sure about this apparently? Couldn’t disagree more.

[UrinalCake]

You mean a class with mainly seniors and juniors, several ranked 10-100 out of HS would only win only one ACC game or two? And you’re very sure about this apparently? Couldn’t disagree more.

That can’t be right. I’ve been hearing all week how we need to go back to having a team of lower-ranked upperclassmen rather than OAD’s.

[CDu]

It feels like we're arguing semantics instead of the topic, so this'll be my last post on the matter.

You indicated Coby White <> Cole Anthony would be a wash. I will repeat what I've said multiple times; I would be positively gobsmacked if that's the case.

Of course it's a possibility. But there's also a possibility that Zion Williamson returns to Duke next year.

An incoming freshman is significantly less of a "sure thing" compared to a returning superstar sophomore point guard. I am surprised you disagree.

Hmm, I think you have misstated my point with this last paragraph. I never said Anthony was a sure thing. Sure I think there is risk that he doesn’t pan out. There is also risk that White wouldn’t get much better (see Marcus Paige after his sophomore year; Grayson Allen after his sophomore year). I think there is less risk with White, but I think Anthony has a much higher ceiling. I think there is a very good chance he will be better than White was this year. It isn’t like White was dominant. He was a very good scorer and shooter but below average as a passer and very turnover prone. I would be surprised if Anthony isn’t better than White was this year.

Since you seem to have backed off your “zero chance” statement, I am sure you will extend me the courtesy of clarifying my “wash” statement. I think White would have been a stud next year. I think Anthony will be a stud next year, especially if he is at UNC. In that sense, I think they would be more or less a wash. Might White be better? Sure. Might Anthony be better? Possible. But I think they both would be studs, and thus I think UNC will have a stud running their offense either way if they have White or Anthony. Hence my “wash” statement. It more of an “if they get Anthony, they will likely have a stud either way” sort of thing.

[Kedsy]

You mean a class with mainly seniors and juniors, several ranked 10-100 out of HS would only win only one ACC game or two? And you’re very sure about this apparently? Couldn’t disagree more.

Notre Dame had five juniors/seniors in its 2018-19 rotation and six guys "ranked 10-100 out of HS" (your lineup has four). The Irish went 3-15 in ACC play this season.

[arnie]

Notre Dame had five juniors/seniors in its 2018-19 rotation and six guys "ranked 10-100 out of HS" (your lineup has four). The Irish went 3-15 in ACC play this season.

We have a better coach and there are other ACC teams with fewer top players. Of course this discussion is ridiculous and we are bored.😀

[Nugget]

I think that you may be underselling Anthony a little. I agree that freshmen are more of a crap-shoot then proven sophomores but Anthony is significantly more highly rated and the son of a former college and nba star. I think the possibility of Anthony being a bust are fairly remote. Also, something I haven't seen mentioned about White is that next year he wouldn't benefit from the shooters he had around him this year. Johnson was a great shooter and Williams and Maye may have had down years percentage wise but based on reputation effectively spaced the floor. Who spaces the floor for unc next year to create driving lanes for White? Also, who does he pass the ball to in general? I'm not saying he would cease to be effective or even take a step back but he would definitely be the total focus of opposing defenses which might make being acc POY a little more challenging.

I do agree that if I were a unc fan (shutter at the thought) I would prefer White based on experience/continuity and higher floor, much like I would prefer a sophomore Jones to a reclassed Hampton. But the ceiling for Anthony and Hampton is probably higher than White or Jones.

I don't think of it as "underselling Anthony" but, rather, as very, very high praise for Coby White. I also haven't seen Anthony play much (other than a few minutes in one of the AAU games last summer), but count me among those who find it hard to believe he is a "wash" for what UNC would get from Coby White next year.

I'll admit that my extreme fear of White may be a function of either (i) Roy's system making any PG look good (and, thus, it would make Anthony look as good as White did this year) and/or (ii) White's performance being partly propped up this year by having veteran options like Maye, Johnson and Williams whereas next year's supporting cast won't be quite as good. On, the other hand, White showed (at least to me) an abnormally extreme level of quickness getting the ball up the floor, abnormally extremely good ability to split double teams, absurd range on his shot (and a preternatural "stones" to take and make big shots that not all players have), and he is 6-5.

While I'll have to defer somewhat to those like CDu who've seen Anthony play more than I have, I still find it difficult to believe he is so great that he would provide 100% of what White would have next season -- especially with a year under his belt.

[MarkD83]

We have a better coach and there are other ACC teams with fewer top players. Of course this discussion is ridiculous and we are bored.😀

I promise I will come to the point of all of this in my next post......

So the team next year without the incoming freshman would perhaps not fair too well....

How about this "hypothetical" team

Quin Cook, Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson, Marshall Plumlee and Sean Obi

[robed deity]

I don't think of it as "underselling Anthony" but, rather, as very, very high praise for Coby White. I also haven't seen Anthony play much (other than a few minutes in one of the AAU games last summer), but count me among those who find it hard to believe he is a "wash" for what UNC would get from Coby White next year.

I'll admit that my extreme fear of White may be a function of either (i) Roy's system making any PG look good (and, thus, it would make Anthony look as good as White did this year) and/or (ii) White's performance being partly propped up this year by having veteran options like Maye, Johnson and Williams whereas next year's supporting cast won't be quite as good. On, the other hand, White showed (at least to me) an abnormally extreme level of quickness getting the ball up the floor, abnormally extremely good ability to split double teams, absurd range on his shot (and a preternatural "stones" to take and make big shots that not all players have), and he is 6-5.

While I'll have to defer somewhat to those like CDu who've seen Anthony play more than I have, I still find it difficult to believe he is so great that he would provide 100% of what White would have next season -- especially with a year under his belt.

I haven't seen Anthony play much either and am also skeptical he can be as productive as a sophomore White. However, I did come across a Jerry Meyer article saying he was the best pg prospect he's seen in 15 years. Ugh, not what I want to hear.

[Steven43]

I haven't seen Anthony play much either and am also skeptical he can be as productive as a sophomore White. However, I did come across a Jerry Meyer article saying he was the best pg prospect he's seen in 15 years. Ugh, not what I want to hear.

A better PG prospect than Kyrie?? I doubt it.

[Nugget]

I haven't seen Anthony play much either and am also skeptical he can be as productive as a sophomore White. However, I did come across a Jerry Meyer article saying he was the best pg prospect he's seen in 15 years. Ugh, not what I want to hear.

Fabulous.

[proelitedota]

UNC with Little, White and Cole vs Duke with VCJ, Zion, Cam, RJ, Tre would have been a battle of titans.

Could have happened in an universe where NCAA allowed players to profit from endorsements.

[UrinalCake]

A better PG prospect than Kyrie?? I doubt it.

Kyrie wasn't even the best PG prospect in his class. He wound up being way better than people thought, much like Zion.

[UrinalCake]

UNC with Little, White and Cole vs Duke with VCJ, Zion, Cam, RJ, Tre would have been a battle of titans.

Could have happened in an universe where NCAA allowed players to profit from endorsements.

Why would Zion, RJ, Little come back to school and be paid endorsement money when they could go pro and be paid even more endorsement money PLUS a multi-million dollar salary?

[gofurman]

I don't think of it as "underselling Anthony" but, rather, as very, very high praise for Coby White. I also haven't seen Anthony play much (other than a few minutes in one of the AAU games last summer), but count me among those who find it hard to believe he is a "wash" for what UNC would get from Coby White next year.

I'll admit that my extreme fear of White may be a function of either (i) Roy's system making any PG look good (and, thus, it would make Anthony look as good as White did this year) and/or (ii) White's performance being partly propped up this year by having veteran options like Maye, Johnson and Williams whereas next year's supporting cast won't be quite as good. On, the other hand, White showed (at least to me) an abnormally extreme level of quickness getting the ball up the floor, abnormally extremely good ability to split double teams, absurd range on his shot (and a preternatural "stones" to take and make big shots that not all players have), and he is 6-5.

While I'll have to defer somewhat to those like CDu who've seen Anthony play more than I have, I still find it difficult to believe he is so great that he would provide 100% of what White would have next season -- especially with a year under his belt.

This. I’ll take a freshman that’s highly rated over a soph White Anyday. White had a knack for hitting big threes. How many freshman have we seen come in as three shooters who didn’t have CONFIDENCE for a FR year? Reddish, Matt Jones O’Connell etc. if Anthony is supposed to be a three shooter (I don’t know that he is) I’ll take him over returning White anyday ! A n y d a y

White is a known entity and was key going 5-7 from three in some games. He was THE key in many of their wins. Heck. Tre Jones was great but was a little surprising how poor his three shooting was ...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Why would Zion, RJ, Little come back to school and be paid endorsement money when they could go pro and be paid even more endorsement money PLUS a multi-million dollar salary?

Good point, but it does beg the question:

Would Zion at Duke be a bigger endorsement engine than Zion with the Knicks? No.
But would Zion at Duke be a bigger endorsement engine than Zion with, say, the Suns? Open question perhaps.

I think there's about 5 Pandora's boxes that will be opened if this ever becomes how things are done (one of which is that all smaller schools will eventually be stomped by larger schools, because this is all about demographics.....and size matters in demographics more than anything else). But that's for another ten threads.

[UrinalCake]

^ it would also favor schools located in big market cities, like St. John’s or UCLA. But if the NCAA did allow players to earn endorsement money (which is a long way off and certainly not going to happen by next season) I have to imagine they would install some sort of cap. They’re not going to have 18 year old kids making more money than the coach and athletic director.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

^ it would also favor schools located in big market cities, like St. John’s or UCLA. But if the NCAA did allow players to earn endorsement money (which is a long way off and certainly not going to happen by next season) I have to imagine they would install some sort of cap. They’re not going to have 18 year old kids making more money than the coach and athletic director.

Yes it would......and without a cap, it would make the schools with massive followings (Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State, Southern Cal, etc, untouchable. Football revenues are almost doing that anyway. Duke is defying gravity in a way (thank you K, Cut, and Clemson's FB pay out).

[Steven43]

Kyrie wasn't even the best PG prospect in his class. He wound up being way better than people thought, much like Zion.

That doesn’t necessarily mean he wasn’t the best PG prospect in his class in the past decade. It could just mean that he was misevaluated to a degree.

[Steven43]

This. I’ll take a freshman that’s highly rated over a soph White Anyday. White had a knack for hitting big threes. How many freshman have we seen come in as three shooters who didn’t have CONFIDENCE for a FR year? Reddish, Matt Jones O’Connell etc. if Anthony is supposed to be a three shooter (I don’t know that he is) I’ll take him over returning White anyday ! A n y d a y

White is a known entity and was key going 5-7 from three in some games. He was THE key in many of their wins. Heck. Tre Jones was great but was a little surprising how poor his three shooting was ...

I can’t really decipher what you’re trying to say. It seems that you’re saying that you would prefer both of White AND Anthony. Those preferences can’t both be correct.

[CDu]

I can’t really decipher what you’re trying to say. It seems that you’re saying that you would prefer both of White AND Anthony. Those preferences can’t both be correct.

No, he is saying - as a Duke fan - he would prefer that UNC not have sophomore White over Anthony.

[Steven43]

No, he is saying - as a Duke fan - he would prefer that UNC not have sophomore White over Anthony.

In other words, as a Duke fan he is glad White is leaving UNC even if that helps the Heels land Anthony. He would prefer a freshman Anthony at UNC rather than a sophomore White, if you had to pick one or the other. I agree.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

^ it would also favor schools located in big market cities, like St. John’s or UCLA. But if the NCAA did allow players to earn endorsement money (which is a long way off and certainly not going to happen by next season) I have to imagine they would install some sort of cap. They’re not going to have 18 year old kids making more money than the coach and athletic director.

Would it though? I mean, people in LA have lots of sports options besides a middling-at-best UCLA squad. I can easily imagine a player like Zion at a program like Duke having WAY more eyeballs and dollar signs when it comes to endorsements. Besides, even though we are all disappointed that Duke didn't advance further, Duke/Zion got massive TV ratings for a few weeks while UCLA was at home.

[proelitedota]

Would it though? I mean, people in LA have lots of sports options besides a middling-at-best UCLA squad. I can easily imagine a player like Zion at a program like Duke having WAY more eyeballs and dollar signs when it comes to endorsements. Besides, even though we are all disappointed that Duke didn't advance further, Duke/Zion got massive TV ratings for a few weeks while UCLA was at home.

Zions shoe deal alone would eclipse all his other endorsements. Duke put him in the best position to land that high of a deal.

[gofurman]

In other words, as a Duke fan he is glad White is leaving UNC even if that helps the Heels land Anthony. He would prefer a freshman Anthony at UNC rather than a sophomore White, if you had to pick one or the other. I agree.

Right. Sorry. I do see where my post was confusing. I just meant as a Duke fan I would prefer Anthony at UNC than White returning to UNC. As a Duke fan, I’ll take the unknown Anthony over the known high-caliber White who has proven himself to dominate ACC play. Maybe Anthony is better as a Fr than White as a Soph but I’ll take that chance. Let’s see what Anthony does Vs Acc level comp. very few guys are Kyrie/Zion-level !

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Zions shoe deal alone would eclipse all his other endorsements. Duke put him in the best position to land that high of a deal.

Yes. But the question as I understood it was "if players could sign endorsement deals in college, wouldn't that give big market teams (UCLA, St Johns) a big advantage. I say not over Duke, based on this year.

[UrinalCake]

Yes. But the question as I understood it was "if players could sign endorsement deals in college, wouldn't that give big market teams (UCLA, St Johns) a big advantage. I say not over Duke, based on this year.

But I could envision a scenario where Nike wants to pay Zion a bazillion dollars and chooses to steer him to a school like UCLA so it can maximize its profits. It wouldn’t happen immediately, but I think these sorts of unintended consequences would occur over time. The Knicks are terrible but they’re about to land Durant and maybe Kyrie.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

But I could envision a scenario where Nike wants to pay Zion a bazillion dollars and chooses to steer him to a school like UCLA so it can maximize its profits. It wouldn’t happen immediately, but I think these sorts of unintended consequences would occur over time. The Knicks are terrible but they’re about to land Durant and maybe Kyrie.

Hrm. I hadn't considered that. But the question is still - would Nike really prefer Zion at UCLA in the Pac 12 instead of at Duke on ESPN twice a week for three months?

[proelitedota]

But I could envision a scenario where Nike wants to pay Zion a bazillion dollars and chooses to steer him to a school like UCLA so it can maximize its profits. It wouldn’t happen immediately, but I think these sorts of unintended consequences would occur over time. The Knicks are terrible but they’re about to land Durant and maybe Kyrie.

The NCAA can bar freshmen from endorsements. The goal is to entice players to stay in school as long as possible who otherwise is forced to jump to the next level due to financial reasons, not to create a blackmarket for businesses to bid over high school players. If freshmen recruits are not allowed from endorsements, this market would not exist. Promises of potential endorsement deals for a one and done isn't exciting since they most likely won't be around for the second year...

Another benefit is someone who was a star in college, but otherwise has no pro potential, earn some critically needed savings from his college fame from local endorsements. i.e. players like Fletcher Maggie, Matt Rafferty.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I forsee UNC winning 6 or 8 games next year. But then again, I'm an optimistic person.

[Duke79UNLV77]

I forsee UNC winning 6 or 8 games next year. But then again, I'm an optimistic person.

Let's get really optimistic: later to be vacated!

[gofurman]

The NCAA can bar freshmen from endorsements. The goal is to entice players to stay in school as long as possible who otherwise is forced to jump to the next level due to financial reasons, not to create a blackmarket for businesses to bid over high school players. If freshmen recruits are not allowed from endorsements, this market would not exist. Promises of potential endorsement deals for a one and done isn't exciting since they most likely won't be around for the second year...

Another benefit is someone who was a star in college, but otherwise has no pro potential, earn some critically needed savings from his college fame from local endorsements. i.e. players like Fletcher Maggie, Matt Rafferty.

Fletcher Magee.. while no pro star, may get a seat on an NBA team or in Europe. He may be a Seth Curry type. Dude can tear it up from 3 all day.