Speculation thread for next year's team.

[proelitedota]

Best case: We keep Tre, keep Bolden, land Hurt, and secure the SG spot

Tre
RJ Hampton/Kira Lewis/5* Boogie Ellis (moves up the rankings)/Swole AOC
Wendell Moore
Matthew Hurt
VCJ

JG
Boogie
AOC
Jack White
Joey Baker
Javin
Bolden

Worse case: Lose Tre, lose Bolden, don't get anyone else.
Boogie Ellis
Twig AOC
Wendell Moore
Javin Delaurier
VCJ

JG
Jack White
Joey Baker
JRob

Best case offense is easily better than this years, which had the worst offense since 2012. Defense is unlikely to be better. This team was SPECIAL at m2m.

[GoDuke2015]

Best case: We keep Tre, keep Bolden, land Hurt, and secure the SG spot

Tre
RJ Hampton/Kira Lewis/5* Boogie Ellis (moves up the rankings)/Swole AOC
Wendell Moore
Matthew Hurt
VCJ

JG
Boogie
AOC
Jack White
Joey Baker
Javin
Bolden

Worse case: Lose Tre, lose Bolden, don't get anyone else.
Boogie Ellis
Twig AOC (
Wendell Moore
Javin Delaurier
VCJ

JG
Jack White
Joey Baker
JRob

Best case offense is easily better than this years, which had the worst offense since 2012. Defense is unlikely to be better. This team was SPECIAL at m2m.


Where would Bolden go? I haven't heard any NBA buzz about him.

[proelitedota]

Where would Bolden go? I haven't heard any NBA buzz about him.

Grad transfer. Europe. Gleague. I don't think 15 min off the bench next year is going to help further his basketball career than the previous three options.

[CDu]

I would be shocked if next year’s team has Jones AND Hampton.

Also, while technically this year’s team was our worst offensive team since 2012, that is kind of overstating things. We were #7 nationally on offense this year, despite numerous injuries/illnesses to key contributors. That isn’t exactly struggling.

I would not be at all shocked if next year’s squad is worse offensively and defensively than this year’s squad.

I wouldn’t be shocked if next year’s squad is better offensively either. But #7 in the nation - even with the key injuries - is a pretty high bar to top.

[scottdude8]

There are way too many variables to speculate too wildly right now (the biggest of which will be Tre's interesting draft decision). It's only worth talking about the known quantities at this point, which are our returning vets. On that point, I will say this: barring something unusual and unexpected, next year's team will return three seniors who have experience and can contribute (Javin, Jack, Marques), two juniors who, at various times this year, found a role and filled it quite well (AOC and JG), and a quasi-redshirt sophomore who various people on this board dubbed the team's savior throughout the season (Joey Baker). That's more upper class depth than any of our teams in the OAD era.

We just lost to a team in Michigan State that had two seniors in Matt McQuaid and Kenny Goins who most certainly aren't any more talented than the trio of seniors we'll have, but provided leadership, experience, and played their role to perfection. Goins even developed a three-point shot literally out of nowhere between his junior and senior seasons; I will point out this fact all offseason to ANYONE who writes of Jack White based off of his cold streak. There's also reason to believe that JG can continue to develop as a defensive sparkplug off of the bench, and either/both of AOC and Joey have the potential to take a big step forward this offseason and become the deadeye outside shooter we've been desperate for the past two years. These players won't be our stars (heck, I'd be shocked if we have more than two of them in the starting lineup), but they'll provide some intangibles and can fill some roles that we haven't been able to in the past couple years. That will give us more room for error/development as our incoming and still very talented freshmen acclimate to college basketball.

I plan on going into detail on this topic at some point in the near future once NBA decisions have crystalized, but the upshot is that while next year's team may not be a juggernaut, the sky most certainly isn't falling.

[TKG]

Duke should pay Chip Engelland or some other shooting guru whatever is required to work with AOC, Baker, JGold, Jack and the rookies to improve our perimeter shooting. I realize Chip is an employee of the Spurs but perhaps a consulting contract could be arranged.

When not working on their shots, respectively, AOC, Baker and Bolden should be in the weight room. I was in school with Bilas and when it became apparent to him that his career was going to be spent banging in the paint he lived in the weight room and put on a lot of size. IMO, Bolden should do the same. It amazes me how easily he gets pushed around. Some of that might be desire but it becomes more difficult for opponents if MB is bigger and stronger.

[proelitedota]

Duke should pay Chip Engelland whatever is required to have him work with AOC, Baker, JGold, Jack and the rookies to improve our perimeter shooting.

When not working on their shots, respectively, AOC, Baker and Bolden should be in the weight room. I was in school with Bilas and when it became apparent to him that his career was going to spent banging in the paint he lived in the weight room and put on a lot of size. IMO, Bolden should do the same. It amazes me how easily he gets pushed around. Some of that might be desire but it becomes more difficult for opponents if MB is bigger and stronger.

Bolden was able to stay in front of perimeter players this year due to his weight loss since freshmen year. Bolden is already slower than what we want of a college 5.

Unless you're built like Zion, there is no reason to weigh above 250.

[pfrduke]

Bolden was able to stay in front of perimeter players this year due to his weight loss since freshmen year. Bolden is already slower than what we want of a college 5.

Unless you're built like Zion, there is no reason to weigh above 250.

Bolden is somewhat unique in that his lateral speed is better than his vertical speed. I feel like his ability to shuffle feet and cut off driving lanes for guards is better than his ability to run the floor.

[BeachBlueDevil]

Just leaving this comment so I can comeback and read all the "I hear (BLANK) is transfering from Duke".

Heard it the last two years about AOC and Bolden (who reportedly was actually considering it).

[proelitedota]

Just leaving this comment so I can comeback and read all the "I hear (BLANK) is transfering from Duke".

Heard it the last two years about AOC and Bolden (who reportedly was actually considering it).

AOC transfer rumors is puzzling. He is a legacy.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Just leaving this comment so I can comeback and read all the "I hear (BLANK) is transfering from Duke".

Heard it the last two years about AOC and Bolden (who reportedly was actually considering it).

Bolden reportedly considering...or both Bolden and AOC considering?

[GoDuke2015]

Bolden reportedly considering...or both Bolden and AOC considering?

I believe past tense.

[ndkjr70]

Grad transfer. Europe. Gleague. I don't think 15 min off the bench next year is going to help further his basketball career than the previous three options.

What on earth is this garbage? Can you name a single time a should-be senior who plays major minutes for a blue-blood transferred or left to go play in Europe?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I believe past tense.

I realize he meant past tense....I just couldn't tell if he meant for one or both players....

[BeachBlueDevil]

I believe past tense.

Certainly past tense..... I for the record don't think anyone leaves this year. Already heard the, "Joey Baker is leaving because K burned his redshirt".

Which makes zero sense.... Seeing as how he'd then have to sit out a year.

[proelitedota]

What on earth is this garbage? Can you name a single time a should-be senior who plays major minutes for a blue-blood transferred or left to go play in Europe?

Not sure how Bolden will see more minutes than this year when he'll have the addition of Vernon Carey to compete for minutes with.

VCJ will get at least 25 min at the 5. That only leaves 15 for Bolden.

[CDu]

What on earth is this garbage? Can you name a single time a should-be senior who plays major minutes for a blue-blood transferred or left to go play in Europe?

Well, Shav Randolph is one who left with no major NBA prospects. Marty Pocius too. Both were in position to get about as many minutes as Bolden projects to get with Carey coming. But yes, it is pretty rare.

[GoDuke2015]

Well, Shav Randolph is one who left with no major NBA prospects. Marty Pocius too. Both were in position to get about as many minutes as Bolden projects to get with Carey coming. But yes, it is pretty rare.

March Pocius had a medical redshirt year and if I recall correctly, he graduated.

[CDu]

March Pocius had a medical redshirt year and if I recall correctly, he graduated.

Yes, but he left with a year of eligibility left. And in doing so, missed out on a chance to play major minutes for a title team.

[proelitedota]

Well, Shav Randolph is one who left with no major NBA prospects. Marty Pocius too. Both were in position to get about as many minutes as Bolden projects to get with Carey coming. But yes, it is pretty rare.

Add Sean Obi to the list.

[wavedukefan70s]

If Bolden comes back aswell everyone we dont expect to leave.i believe we can be surprisingly good.

You give these guys minutes they will produce.

[gofurman]

Best case: We keep Tre, keep Bolden, land Hurt, and secure the SG spot

Tre
RJ Hampton/Kira Lewis/5* Boogie Ellis (moves up the rankings)/Swole AOC
Wendell Moore
Matthew Hurt
VCJ

JG
Boogie
AOC
Jack White
Joey Baker
Javin
Bolden

Worse case: Lose Tre, lose Bolden, don't get anyone else.
Boogie Ellis
Twig AOC
Wendell Moore
Javin Delaurier
VCJ

JG
Jack White
Joey Baker
JRob

Best case offense is easily better than this years, which had the worst offense since 2012. Defense is unlikely to be better. This team was SPECIAL at m2m.

Are we after a PG??? If Tre leaves Ellis is a scorer and Goldwire is backup PG. need a PG!! Isn’t Lewis a PG? Or is he a 2 or combo? What about Hampton? Is he more a PG or combo or a shooter?

Thx for help ! I don’t follow as closely as some of you

[ndkjr70]

Add Sean Obi to the list.

Sean Obi played 27 minutes in a Duke uniform.

Marques Bolden has played 1,195 minutes in a Duke uniform.

But you're right -- it's a ringer.

[mattman91]

Let the rosterbation games begin!

[Devilwin]

Are we after a PG??? If Tre leaves Ellis is a scorer and Goldwire is backup PG. need a PG!! Isn’t Lewis a PG? Or is he a 2 or combo? What about Hampton? Is he more a PG or combo or a shooter?

Thx for help ! I don’t follow as closely as some of you

He's a great pg that is an awesome scorer as well.

[gofurman]

He's a great pg that is an awesome scorer as well.

? Are you referring to Lewis or Hampton or both?

[proelitedota]

? Are you referring to Lewis or Hampton or both?
Hampton is a good PG but not a good shooter.

Lewis is a bit of both.

The best case scenario SG next year is AOC putting on weight and being capable of playing elite defense.

1. Swole AOC
2. Boogie Ellis becoming a 5* in his final year.
3. RJ Hampton reclassifying and developing a consistent 3
4. Lewis comes to us and improves on his overall game.

[jipops]

I would be shocked if next year’s team has Jones AND Hampton.

Also, while technically this year’s team was our worst offensive team since 2012, that is kind of overstating things. We were #7 nationally on offense this year, despite numerous injuries/illnesses to key contributors. That isn’t exactly struggling.

I would not be at all shocked if next year’s squad is worse offensively and defensively than this year’s squad.

I wouldn’t be shocked if next year’s squad is better offensively either. But #7 in the nation - even with the key injuries - is a pretty high bar to top.

That piece of analytics is highly misleading. We were also 211 (give or take) in half court ppp. That is pretty downright awful. And just from the eyetest itself the offense was bad. It was pretty much just go iso with RJ or Zion. I really wish K would get away from this but he seems to have fallen in love with it for awhile now.

It is is possible that our half court offense will be better but who can score? No way the transition offense will be. And defensively it’s a safe bet we’ll see a huge drop off. I think next season could be one of K’s more mediocre seasons.

[cruxer]

That piece of analytics is highly misleading. We were also 211 (give or take) in half court ppp. That is pretty downright awful. And just from the eyetest itself the offense was bad. It was pretty much just go iso with RJ or Zion. I really wish K would get away from this but he seems to have fallen in love with it for awhile now.

It is is possible that our half court offense will be better but who can score? No way the transition offense will be. And defensively it’s a safe bet we’ll see a huge drop off. I think next season could be one of K’s more mediocre seasons.

It's tough, though. Those guys are 2 of the best scorers we've seen in a while. Why wouldn't you run the offense through them? Of course you'd like someone else to be able to hit an open shot that one of those guys creates with their offense, but this team was particularly bad at that.

-c

[gofurman]

Hampton is a good PG but not a good shooter.

Lewis is a bit of both.

The best case scenario SG next year is AOC putting on weight and being capable of playing elite defense.

1. Swole AOC
2. Boogie Ellis becoming a 5* in his final year.
3. RJ Hampton reclassifying and developing a consistent 3
4. Lewis comes to us and improves on his overall game.

Thanks

Best PG?
Tre returns but if not then which is a better true PG? Hampton?

[proelitedota]

That piece of analytics is highly misleading. We were also 211 (give or take) in half court ppp. That is pretty downright awful. And just from the eyetest itself the offense was bad. It was pretty much just go iso with RJ or Zion. I really wish K would get away from this but he seems to have fallen in love with it for awhile now.

It is is possible that our half court offense will be better but who can score? No way the transition offense will be. And defensively it’s a safe bet we’ll see a huge drop off. I think next season could be one of K’s more mediocre seasons.

Transition offense is overrated. It works in the regular season against outmatched opponents, but after sweet sixteen, the teams all have elite pgs that would not turn the ball over.

If you want to build a team for off-season, you have to have the following:

1. Consistent defense centered around denying 3pt looks and altering shots around the basket.
2. Taking care of the ball!
3. High points per possession, whether through good shooting, or through good rebounding.

Relying on steals and transition points in the NCAA tournament is not a viable strategy beyond the first weekend.

[proelitedota]

Thanks

Best PG?
Tre returns but if not then which is a better true PG? Hampton?

1. Soph Tre
2. RJ Hampton
3. Lewis

[Troublemaker]

I think next season could be one of K’s more mediocre seasons.

Let's face it -- if someone were to go back and check, you probably predicted the same last offseason. Unless you're willing to make a pie wager (or a wager of some kind), your predictions are just noise. Get some "skin in the game."

As for next season, we don't even know who is going to be on the team yet. A mediocre season is a possibility but so is another contending team depending on how the roster shakes out. A wide range of possibilities at this point.

[proelitedota]

Let's face it -- if someone were to go back and check, you probably predicted the same last offseason. Unless you're willing to make a pie wager (or a wager of some kind), your predictions are just noise. Get some "skin in the game."

As for next season, we don't even know who is going to be on the team yet. A mediocre season is a possibility but so is another contending team depending on how the roster shakes out. A wide range of possibilities at this point.

I thought this season we'll see a dip, due to Grayson leaving and RJ Barrett looking like the only sure shot lottery pick we have coming in. I had in-hindsight valid doubts about Cam's consistency, and I thought Zion would have trouble adjusting to college.

No one predicted the monster that Zion was going to become until the Canada trip.

[Devilwin]

Hampton scored 50 points in a game earlier.

[Troublemaker]

It would be great to have an use two competent guards, one to run the point and the other a combo guard with point capabilities. If Tre stays, he should work very hard to improve his shooting from deep. We will have Carey, who will be a force inside and can hit from a distance. Moore is around 6'6" from what I hear and is a scorer. Wells may take some time to acclimatize to Div 1 ball, we shall see.

That first bolded sentence describes Tre and RJ, no? You did see that we beat VaTech by largely running the offense thru RJ and his side ball screens. Tre was the PG this season but RJ playmade (playmaked?) a lot this season, arguably too much at times. RJ was a combo guard for us.

As for next season, Wendell is more than just a scorer. From what I've seen, he could also be a secondary playmaker but definitely should not be the primary PG.



Mix in Goldwire, hopefully a stronger O'Connell, Baker, DeLauier and Bolden and we should have the experience to go with the new talent. Getting Hurt would be icing on the cake. He is a smooth 6'9" scorer who would make us more of a threat.

Given the lack of shooting the past two seasons, I am most definitely not treating Hurt as just icing on the cake. Neither is Duke's staff.

[Troublemaker]

As for next season, we don't even know who is going to be on the team yet. A mediocre season is a possibility but so is another contending team depending on how the roster shakes out. A wide range of possibilities at this point.

Expanding on this a bit. Let's say Mr. 94% Accurate on the Crystal Ball (https://247sports.com/User/EvanDaniels/Predictions/) Evan Daniels is correct about Matthew Hurt signing with Duke.

It just comes down to PG then.

If it's sophomore Tre Jones, I would make Duke preseason #1. Note that my preseason #1 from last offseason was UVA, who is in the Final Four and the favorite to win it all.

If it's RJ Hampton or Kira Lewis, I would make Duke top 5.

If we can't land one of our 3 PG possibilities, *then* I'll be worried about mediocre seasons.

[robed deity]

Expanding on this a bit. Let's say Mr. 94% Accurate on the Crystal Ball (https://247sports.com/User/EvanDaniels/Predictions/) Evan Daniels is correct about Matthew Hurt signing with Duke.

It just comes down to PG then.

If it's sophomore Tre Jones, I would make Duke preseason #1. Note that my preseason #1 from last offseason was UVA, who is in the Final Four and the favorite to win it all.

If it's RJ Hampton or Kira Lewis, I would make Duke top 5.

If we can't land one of our 3 PG possibilities, *then* I'll be worried about mediocre seasons.

Huge ifs, but if Tre stays, Duke gets Hurt, and there aren't any surprising departures, I REALLY like that team.

[CDu]

What on earth is this garbage? Can you name a single time a should-be senior who plays major minutes for a blue-blood transferred or left to go play in Europe?

JP Tokoto joins the list as well to go along with Pocius and Randolph. Technically, Tokoto was drafted (58th), but has never played in the NBA and was never likely to do so.

Trevor Lacey left what could have been a solid NC St team

Again, it is rare, and the reasons for it differ from player to player. But it does occasionally happen that a guy leaves a year of eligibility on the table despite not having realistic NBA prospects.

[Wander]

I'm pretty optimistic that at least one of Javin, Marques, AOC, Goldwire, or Jack will make a large jump in the offseason and get a starting position even if we land Hurt and keep Tre. We're past due for a returning player to make a big leap.

[simplyluvin]

Did Kira get a waiver to play immediately? Wouldn't he have to sit out a year?

Next year's team hinges on 1) our PG (hopefully Tre) and 2) getting Hurt. Without Hurt, I just don't think we can score enough.

[jipops]

Let's face it -- if someone were to go back and check, you probably predicted the same last offseason. Unless you're willing to make a pie wager (or a wager of some kind), your predictions are just noise. Get some "skin in the game."

As for next season, we don't even know who is going to be on the team yet. A mediocre season is a possibility but so is another contending team depending on how the roster shakes out. A wide range of possibilities at this point.

Nah, I didn’t. But you can go back and see I was down on this team’s offense for quite awhile. I’m sure it comes off as negative, probably was, but a lot ringed true. I thought the point of this thread was to prognosticate and bring noise.

We don’t know who exactly will be on the team but...

A: we’re not bringing back any proven scorers
B: Carey is the only recruit coming in with the reputation that suggests he’ll be able to contribute right away

I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest this team will be mediocre by recent standards. But hey, maybe Ellis turns out to be similar to Coby White, that would really help. I do like what I read about Moore’s ability to defend.

[proelitedota]

I'm pretty optimistic that at least one of Javin, Marques, AOC, Goldwire, or Jack will make a large jump in the offseason and get a starting position even if we land Hurt and keep Tre. We're past due for a returning player to make a big leap.

If we land Hurt and keep Tre, we have 3 primary scorers.
I am counting on AOC to be that player that makes a leap. He certainly has the ability to average 10ppg THIS year if given enough minutes and shots.

IMO:
Vernon: 15ppg
Hurt: 15ppg
Wendell: 10ppg
AOC: 10ppg
Tre: 15ppg

Bench:
Bolden, Javin: 10ppg
Baker, White, Boogie, Goldwire: 10ppg

I think we can easily average over 80ppg.

[Utley]

I am excited if we get the Javin of the last month back. It seems like the game slowed down for him.
If we land Hurt and keep Tre, we have 3 primary scorers.
I am counting on AOC to be that player that makes a leap. He certainly has the ability to average 10ppg THIS year if given enough minutes and shots.

IMO:
Vernon: 15ppg
Hurt: 15ppg
Wendell: 10ppg
AOC: 10ppg
Tre: 15ppg

Bench:
Bolden, Javin: 10ppg
Baker, White, Boogie, Goldwire: 10ppg

I think we can easily average over 80ppg.

[robed deity]

If we land Hurt and keep Tre, we have 3 primary scorers.
I am counting on AOC to be that player that makes a leap. He certainly has the ability to average 10ppg THIS year if given enough minutes and shots.

IMO:
Vernon: 15ppg
Hurt: 15ppg
Wendell: 10ppg
AOC: 10ppg
Tre: 15ppg

Bench:
Bolden, Javin: 10ppg
Baker, White, Boogie, Goldwire: 10ppg

I think we can easily average over 80ppg.

I would be shocked if neither Javin or Bolden started.

[proelitedota]

I would be shocked if neither Javin or Bolden started.

You think one of Hurt or VCJ is going to sit? :rolleyes:

If we don't land Hurt, then Javin gets the start at the 4.

[scottdude8]

I would be shocked if neither Javin or Bolden started.

I think one of them will start for a large portion of the season, but I also wouldn’t be “shocked” if they don’t. Carey will in all likelihood start. Putting Javin or Bolden alongside him will put us in a Bagley/Carter situation, but with less outside shooting ability. I’m not saying that won’t happen or that it won’t be our best potential lineup. But I’ve got a suspicion K will have learned from some of the limitations presented by that lineup two seasons ago.

[CDu]

Nah, I didn’t. But you can go back and see I was down on this team’s offense for quite awhile. I’m sure it comes off as negative, probably was, but a lot ringed true. I thought the point of this thread was to prognosticate and bring noise.

We don’t know who exactly will be on the team but...

A: we’re not bringing back any proven scorers
B: Carey is the only recruit coming in with the reputation that suggests he’ll be able to contribute right away

I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest this team will be mediocre by recent standards. But hey, maybe Ellis turns out to be similar to Coby White, that would really help. I do like what I read about Moore’s ability to defend.

Except that we haven’t finished outside the top 10 offensively in a LONG time. And this year was no exception. We didn’t have a stellar offensive game Sunday (it wasn’t bad, just wasn’t great). But prior to that? Elite offensive performances throughout the tournament going back to the FSU game. It doesn’t matter how you are efficient so long as you are efficient.

If Ellis isn’t ready, it is likely to be on the defensive end. He is every bit the scorer, and will likely be a top-30 recruit by the end. He is only #49 on RSCI because one service didn’t rate him. Everywhere else he was in the 25 to 41 range as of the summer.

Moore is a likely day-one contributor, but moreso for defense like Winslow. Not that he is a bad scorer, but it isn’t his bread and butter.

If we get Hurt and a competent PG, I would expect our offense to be elite yet again. Not elite in the same way that this year’s offense was elite, or like last year either. But elite.

If we don’t get Hurt or Watford AND don’t get a decent PG, I would be concerned. But I am hopeful that second scenario remains highly unlikely.

[CDu]

I would be shocked if neither Javin or Bolden started.

If we land Hurt, prepare to be shocked. Because he and Carey are too talented not to start. In that scenario, I would expect one of them to play decent minutes off the bench though.

[ndkjr70]

Huge ifs, but if Tre stays, Duke gets Hurt, and there aren't any surprising departures, I REALLY like that team.

*If* Duke gets Hurt? Dude, have you even been paying attention? Duke ALWAYS gets hurt.

;)

[robed deity]

I think one of them will start for a large portion of the season, but I also wouldn’t be “shocked” if they don’t. Carey will in all likelihood start. Putting Javin or Bolden alongside him will put us in a Bagley/Carter situation, but with less outside shooting ability. I’m not saying that won’t happen or that it won’t be our best potential lineup. But I’ve got a suspicion K will have learned from some of the limitations presented by that lineup two seasons ago.

I probably overstated it with "shocked", but re: Delaurier- it's just hard for me to imagine not starting maybe your best, most experienced defender. But as you said, it could change as the season progresses.

[dukelion]

Also, while technically this year’s team was our worst offensive team since 2012, that is kind of overstating things. We were #7 nationally on offense this year, despite numerous injuries/illnesses to key contributors. That isn’t exactly struggling.

I would not be at all shocked if next year’s squad is worse offensively and defensively than this year’s squad.

I wouldn’t be shocked if next year’s squad is better offensively either. But #7 in the nation - even with the key injuries - is a pretty high bar to top.

I think it underscores how this year's team strength was in it's defense. And the #7 ranking is relative. I think it speaks to a lot of people's misconceptions that this was some type of dominant offensive unit while in reality it was once of the least efficients team's Duke has had in the past decade.

[proelitedota]

Two years in a row we had a top 10 defense despite having freshmen being a majority of our lineup.

2017 we had a top 50 defense despite playing 3 players out of position.

Kentucky usually has a top 10 defense every year.

I don't think the defense this year was a fluke. Coaching staff and programs, like players, improve over time just like players do.

I think we'll have at least a top 20 defense on Kenpom next year.

[ndkjr70]

I think it underscores how this year's team strength was in it's defense. And the #7 ranking is relative. I think it speaks to a lot of people's misconceptions that this was some type of dominant offensive unit while in reality it was once of the least efficients team's Duke has had in the past decade.

What’s Duke ranking when Zion plays? Because the fact that we played without our NPoY or starting PG for nearly 1/3rd if the season and still finished a hair off top-5 tells me this offense was just as dominant as I thought.

[CDu]

I think it underscores how this year's team strength was in it's defense. And the #7 ranking is relative. I think it speaks to a lot of people's misconceptions that this was some type of dominant offensive unit while in reality it was once of the least efficients team's Duke has had in the past decade.

It really doesn’t though. We were still an elite offensive team. Again, it isn’t how, it is how many per possession. And we were easily a top 10 offense nationally. That isn’t a misconception. It is reality. Saying this was the worst offensive Duke team since 2012 is technically true, but MUCH more misleading than saying this was an elite offense. Just because we have had several Uber-elite offenses in recent years doesn’t mean this offense was bad. It was a bad shooting team, but an elite offensive rebounding team (#14 nationally) and an elite shooting team inside the paint (#4 nationally in 2pt %). In aggregate, an elite offensive team.

And again, that is despite us missing the most dominant player in recent memory for six games, which tanked our efficiency numbers. We were top 3-4 when we had Zion.

[proelitedota]

What’s Duke ranking when Zion plays? Because the fact that we played without our NPoY or starting PG for nearly 1/3rd if the season and still finished a hair off top-5 tells me this offense was just as dominant as I thought.

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duke

Didn't seem there is a correlation between our offense with Zion on or off the court. From eye sight, Zion is great at bailing us out by providing a higher floor, he does not take our offense to the next level.

[Rich]

I know it's the off season for everyone in a week and a day, but having this thread now bums me out. It just feels too early. I want us to still be playing so badly.

I played an April Fool's joke on my family when I left for work this morning. I left a note that Cassius failed a drug test after the game, disqualifying Michigan State, and so Duke was in the Final Four. How I wish that was true!

[devildeac]

Huge ifs, but if Tre stays, Duke gets Hurt, and there aren't any surprising departures, I REALLY like that team.

This is about the only time that scenario would please me...

[jv001]

I know it's the off season for everyone in a week and a day, but having this thread now bums me out. It just feels too early. I want us to still be playing so badly.

I played an April Fool's joke on my family when I left for work this morning. I left a note that Cassius failed a drug test after the game, disqualifying Michigan State, and so Duke was in the Final Four. How I wish that was true!

You mean it's not true? :cool:

[dukelion]

It really doesn’t though. We were still an elite offensive team. Again, it isn’t how, it is how many per possession. And we were easily a top 10 offense nationally. That isn’t a misconception. It is reality. Saying this was the worst offensive Duke team since 2012 is technically true, but MUCH more misleading than saying this was an elite offense. Just because we have had several Uber-elite offenses in recent years doesn’t mean this offense was bad. It was a bad shooting team, but an elite offensive rebounding team (#14 nationally) and an elite shooting team inside the paint (#4 nationally in 2pt %). In aggregate, an elite offensive team.

And again, that is despite us missing the most dominant player in recent memory for six games, which tanked our efficiency numbers. We were top 3-4 when we had Zion.

The misconception among many is that it was one of best/most efficient offenses in Duke history due in large part to Zion and RJ. My point is that is simply not true. Yes we were still a very good offense but the reality is that this was one of the best defensive teams in Duke's history which is the main reason we had a shot at competing for a championship this year.

With respect to next year, I think we can have a similar offensive rating but the defensive rating will be almost impossible to replicate without reinforcements.

[johnwalker21]

Was Tre supposed to be a one and done? I assumed that he was the most likely to stay, and just based from watching his play during the year, he could use another year just to continue to developed. I only assume he would go just due to the numbers game of PG in this draft?

[Lippl]

Two years in a row we had a top 10 defense despite having freshmen being a majority of our lineup.

2017 we had a top 50 defense despite playing 3 players out of position.

Kentucky usually has a top 10 defense every year.

I don't think the defense this year was a fluke. Coaching staff and programs, like players, improve over time just like players do.

I think we'll have at least a top 20 defense on Kenpom next year.

2015 we had Jabari and Rodney and weren’t in the top 100, IIRC.

[jipops]

Two years in a row we had a top 10 defense despite having freshmen being a majority of our lineup.

2017 we had a top 50 defense despite playing 3 players out of position.

Kentucky usually has a top 10 defense every year.

I don't think the defense this year was a fluke. Coaching staff and programs, like players, improve over time just like players do.

I think we'll have at least a top 20 defense on Kenpom next year.

Our defense had almost everything to do with the defensive talents of Tre, Cam and Zion, not coaching. We had not had that sort of influx of defensive talent from freshmen in a long, long time...if ever. Don’t count on that happening again. Also, remember the defense did take a dip when Zion was out.

If Tre is back then that will likely significantly strengthen the defense by applying ball pressure up top. If he isn’t then I think it’s likely things could get dicey on that end. I have no idea how good Carey is on that end. Then again, at this point last year I would not have predicted what I stated above.

[CDu]

Our defense had almost everything to do with the defensive talents of Tre, Cam and Zion, not coaching. We had not had that sort of influx of defensive talent from freshmen in a long, long time...if ever. Don’t count on that happening again. Also, remember the defense did take a dip when Zion was out.

If Tre is back then that will likely significantly strengthen the defense by applying ball pressure up top. If he isn’t then I think it’s likely things could get dicey on that end. I have no idea how good Carey is on that end. Then again, at this point last year I would not have predicted what I stated above.

Carey is not noted as a plus defender. But he may be an effective defensive rebounder, which has defensive value. And he may block some shots, which has value. But he is not known as a plus defender.

[Kedsy]

http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duke

Didn't seem there is a correlation between our offense with Zion on or off the court. From eye sight, Zion is great at bailing us out by providing a higher floor, he does not take our offense to the next level.

I'm not sure how to properly read Torvik's page to compare our offense with or without Zion, but I do know that the day before Zion got hurt KenPom pegged our adjusted oRating at 123.9 for the season, and now he has it at 120.1, which is a pretty big drop -- and yes, that includes seven games that Zion played after he came back, but in those games our roughly adjusted oRatings were 1.30, 1.16, 1.20, 1.13, 1.23, 1.27, and 1.13. So it looks from my vantage as if our oRating was significantly better in games Zion played compared to those he didn't (0.95, 1.25, 1.24. 1.23, 0.94, 1.05). Though maybe Torvik says differently, like I said I can't tell from a quick look at the page you linked to.

[dukelion]

Our defense had almost everything to do with the defensive talents of Tre, Cam and Zion, not coaching. We had not had that sort of influx of defensive talent from freshmen in a long, long time...if ever. Don’t count on that happening again. Also, remember the defense did take a dip when Zion was out.

If Tre is back then that will likely significantly strengthen the defense by applying ball pressure up top. If he isn’t then I think it’s likely things could get dicey on that end. I have no idea how good Carey is on that end. Then again, at this point last year I would not have predicted what I stated above.

Wendel Moore seems like a great defensive prospect in the Justise Winslow mold. Him, Tre and Javin would certainly make for a solid core.

[UrinalCake]

This seems like a good place to put this. Getting Tre back would immediately change the outlook for next year’s team. But i’m not getting my hopes up.

9264

EDIT: link (https://twitter.com/dukeofhoops/status/1112777676106944512) to image

[cbarry]

Was Tre supposed to be a one and done? I assumed that he was the most likely to stay, and just based from watching his play during the year, he could use another year just to continue to developed. I only assume he would go just due to the numbers game of PG in this draft?

I always figured Tre was a 1 and done. His brother did it... and even though Tre didn’t win the natty, I can’t imagine there is even a 0.00001% chance he comes back next year. There is just too much money in the NBA. Too hard to turn down the money. I’m baffled at how many people on this board seem to view Tre coming back or leaving as equal probabilities.

I won’t blame him when he announces for the draft, but darn, it would have been nice to have a sophomore Tre!

[Ian]

I always figured Tre was a 1 and done. His brother did it... and even though Tre didn’t win the natty, I can’t imagine there is even a 0.00001% chance he comes back next year. There is just too much money in the NBA. Too hard to turn down the money. I’m baffled at how many people on this board seem to view Tre coming back or leaving as equal probabilities.

I won’t blame him when he announces for the draft, but darn, it would have been nice to have a sophomore Tre!

Because he's not a sure fire 1st round pick, he's a borderline 1st round pick, with the main knock against him that he can't shoot. If he gets drafted, he'll spend the entire year in the G-League. Which is what happened to guys like Gary Trent and Duval. If that's what he wants, that's what he'll get. Or alternatively, he can come back and be the spotlight player for Duke, improve his shot and gets drafted in the 1st round and start his career in the NBA.

I think there is a decent chance he opt to stay.

[dukelifer]

Because he's not a sure fire 1st round pick, he's a borderline 1st round pick, with the main knock against him that he can't shoot. If he gets drafted, he'll spend the entire year in the G-League. Which is what happened to guys like Gary Trent and Duval. If that's what he wants, that's what he'll get. Or alternatively, he can come back and be the spotlight player for Duke, improve his shot and gets drafted in the 1st round and start his career in the NBA.

I think there is a decent chance he opt to stay.
I am sure Tyus will give him a lot of brotherly advice.

[BeachBlueDevil]

Because he's not a sure fire 1st round pick, he's a borderline 1st round pick, with the main knock against him that he can't shoot. If he gets drafted, he'll spend the entire year in the G-League. Which is what happened to guys like Gary Trent and Duval. If that's what he wants, that's what he'll get. Or alternatively, he can come back and be the spotlight player for Duke, improve his shot and gets drafted in the 1st round and start his career in the NBA.

I think there is a decent chance he opt to stay.

He'll play more games on TV and under the bright lights if he stays as well. He shot 48% from 2 and a horrid 26% from 2. If he stays, plays in primetime at Duke and raises his 3P fg% to 33-35% he's a mid to late lottery pick (at worse).

He also saw his brother come out and pretty much ride the pine for a couple years. Tre doesn't seem like the kind of guy who wants to do that and also comes across as being motivated by wins and titles. Does he need the money? Probably not. I'm sure Tyus doesn't mind floating his brother some interest loans til he joins him in the league.

[Dukehk]

Really hoping for a more balanced attack for the upcoming team. We started off this year pretty balanced, with Cam Reddish (and even Tre/Jack) contributing to the overall scoring.

This regressed as the season went on and guys like Jack never recovered from their "slumps". Not to mention that Reddish seemed to be hot and cold (maybe due to various injuries?) for most of the year.

Typically, our best teams and national champs have at least 3 guys who can score double figures in any given game. Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow and Okafor. Scheyer, Smith and Singler.

This year, it just felt like we relied MUCH too heavily on Zion as the season progressed. To the point where even RJ took a backseat to him. It sort of culminated into the last 3 plays of the season, where we ran the same set over and over with RJ and Zion isolated in one corner and trying to work magic. Hate seeing that type of basketball because thats not what a typical Duke motion offense should be.

So with the upcoming team (including Tre for arguments sake), we could have Carey, Tre and Moore providing the scoring. With Hurt on board that might make it 4 players who could give us consistent double figures.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Let the rosterbation games begin!

Didn't you give that up for April?

[BobBender]

I am sure Tyus will give him a lot of brotherly advice.

This is a no-brainer decision for Tre. Stay in the national spotlight at Duke or beat the bushes in the G-League? Get that outside shot fixed and his game is complete. Do that in Durham...... DeLaurier is evolving into Amile Jefferson 2.0. O'Connell and Joey Baker have to step up to fill the 2/3 role. Jack White can only be better.
The shelves are far from bare; need Wendell Moore and Carey to be ready. Hurt would be a bonus. Bottom line is while there may not be the sheer raw talent next year, roster construction may be more balanced. Having Baglry/Carter and Cam/RJ on the same roster last 2 years was an impressive talent stockpile but not optimal. There is only one basketball. I'm convinced that too much talent can be almost as much a problem as too little.

[CDu]

2015 we had Jabari and Rodney and weren’t in the top 100, IIRC.

That was 2014. And Hood was essentially a junior (redshirt sophomore with a year already in the program), not a freshman.

[Troublemaker]

Nah, I didn’t. But you can go back and see I was down on this team’s offense for quite awhile. I’m sure it comes off as negative, probably was, but a lot ringed true. I thought the point of this thread was to prognosticate and bring noise.

It is. I'm just breaking your balls a little bit because it's easy to predict what you'll predict. I feel like I can switch it up better. While usually an optimist, I turned pessimist after the UCF game. Someone challenged me to a pie bet on it and sadly I won when Duke lost to MSU.



We don’t know who exactly will be on the team but...

A: we’re not bringing back any proven scorers
B: Carey is the only recruit coming in with the reputation that suggests he’ll be able to contribute right away

I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest this team will be mediocre by recent standards. But hey, maybe Ellis turns out to be similar to Coby White, that would really help. I do like what I read about Moore’s ability to defend.

As mentioned, if things go well on the recruiting trail, Duke could be a top-5 team again, and Boogie wouldn't even have to be in the rotation for that to happen.

Lots of important decisions coming up. Let's wait and see. It's a stretch to predict either mediocre or top-5 until those decisions are made.

[flyingdutchdevil]

2015 we had Jabari and Rodney and weren’t in the top 100, IIRC.

Because Jabari is the worst defender ever to come out of Duke. Rodney Good won defensive player of the year, showing just how limited that team was on D.

[gofurman]

Really hoping for a more balanced attack for the upcoming team. We started off this year pretty balanced, with Cam Reddish (and even Tre/Jack) contributing to the overall scoring.

This regressed as the season went on and guys like Jack never recovered from their "slumps". Not to mention that Reddish seemed to be hot and cold (maybe due to various injuries?) for most of the year.

Typically, our best teams and national champs have at least 3 guys who can score double figures in any given game. Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, Justise Winslow and Okafor. Scheyer, Smith and Singler.

This year, it just felt like we relied MUCH too heavily on Zion as the season progressed. To the point where even RJ took a backseat to him. It sort of culminated into the last 3 plays of the season, where we ran the same set over and over with RJ and Zion isolated in one corner and trying to work magic. Hate seeing that type of basketball because thats not what a typical Duke motion offense should be.

So with the upcoming team (including Tre for arguments sake), we could have Carey, Tre and Moore providing the scoring. With Hurt on board that might make it 4 players who could give us consistent double figures.
“
This year, it just felt like we relied MUCH too heavily on Zion and RJ as the season progressed. “

THIS 100%. Easy to prove. We don’t win the prior ncaa game without Tre hitting threes. We were awesome early in year when White and Reddish or Tre were confident in any given game. As the year progressed it became more the Zion and RJ show ONLY and other guys regressed. I haven’t seen such a regression as Jack White in years. He missed every three in February. Every one. Needs an off-season to clear his head and start firing away again

That said, to be fair, we only lost TWO games this year with every player healthy. Gonzaga early and MSU late. That’s it

[Dukebasketball2020]

Duke should look at transfer David Jenkins Jr from south dakota state 6-2 guard, 80% FT shooter, 45% 3 point shooter averaged almost 20 a game this year.

[UrinalCake]

Duke should look at transfer David Jenkins Jr from south dakota state 6-2 guard, 80% FT shooter, 45% 3 point shooter averaged almost 20 a game this year.

I saw his name as well and had the same thought. It weird the way grad transfers have become such a thing. Feels like doing Christmas shopping from other people's teams LOL.

[Dukehk]

“
This year, it just felt like we relied MUCH too heavily on Zion and RJ as the season progressed. “

THIS 100%. Easy to prove. We don’t win the prior ncaa game without Tre hitting threes. We were awesome early in year when White and Reddish or Tre were confident in any given game. As the year progressed it became more the Zion and RJ show ONLY and other guys regressed. I haven’t seen such a regression as Jack White in years. He missed every three in February. Every one. Needs an off-season to clear his head and start firing away again

That said, to be fair, we only lost TWO games this year with every player healthy. Gonzaga early and MSU late. That’s it

Glad I'm not the only one who didn't like the way we were playing towards the latter half of the year. It just felt like the other players on the team were happy to take a backseat to Z and RJ for whatever reasons. Felt like we played much more stagnant and Iso basketball as a result. The coaching staff were to blame as well for implementing that "two man game" by clearing out one side for RJ and Zion. It left the other 3 players redundant and pretty much cold - going possessions without meaningfully touching the ball even.

As for Jack, it definitely is the most shocking regression in-season that I have seen. I hope he comes back next year strong though. He will be a senior and we need leadership.

If Tre comes back (he is currently projected as a 2nd rounder) then I hope he develops more of an outside shot and takes the onus to drive the basketball and create more off the dribble. All he needs to do is take a look at the impact that someone like cassius winston had on the game. The perfect example of a guard that isn't athletic, but can dominate a ball game via crafty moves and basketball IQ.

[szstark]

This is a no-brainer decision for Tre. Stay in the national spotlight at Duke or beat the bushes in the G-League? Get that outside shot fixed and his game is complete. Do that in Durham... DeLaurier is evolving into Amile Jefferson 2.0. O'Connell and Joey Baker have to step up to fill the 2/3 role. Jack White can only be better.
The shelves are far from bare; need Wendell Moore and Carey to be ready. Hurt would be a bonus. Bottom line is while there may not be the sheer raw talent next year, roster construction may be more balanced. Having Baglry/Carter and Cam/RJ on the same roster last 2 years was an impressive talent stockpile but not optimal. There is only one basketball. I'm convinced that too much talent can be almost as much a problem as too little.
I love Javin, but there is no way he will be Jefferson 2.0. Amile had much better hands, a better offensive game, and a much higher basketball IQ.

[CDu]

I love Javin, but there is no way he will be Jefferson 2.0. Amile had much better hands, a better offensive game, and a much higher basketball IQ.

The two are totally different types of players. DeLaurier is way more athletic but way less skilled and not nearly as savvy. If anything, DeLaurier is closer in style to Lance Thomas than Amile Jefferson. But even that's not a great comp, as Thomas was a better on-ball and team defender whereas DeLaurier is way more athletic and a better defensive playmaker (blocked shots and steals).

I could see DeLaurier having a very strong senior year. I don't think it will look anything like Amile Jefferson though.

[Natty_B]

I saw his name as well and had the same thought. It weird the way grad transfers have become such a thing. Feels like doing Christmas shopping from other people's teams LOL.

I'm here for hearing about grad transfers and I'm not sure why Duke hasn't gone this route before. A grad transfer PG would probably have been a better option than getting Thornton to reclass.

The results of those transfers vary big time. Last year Duke was linked to Joe Cremo for a hot minute. Cremo made barely a ripple at Nova this year. However, Matt Mooney at Texas Tech has helped a lot (Texas Tech btw replaced most of their lineup from last year but you don't hear the same tsk tsk'ing from the media/pundits about that as you do when Duke and UK do it).

[Dukebasketball2020]

I hope Duke offers Watford, guy is 6'9 and can play inside and out. He will be a better version of Javin and Javin is gone after next year. Guys like Moore, Hurt, and Watford, and Ellis are not one and done guys. Carey should be the only 1 and done unless we somehow land Hampton he will be one and done too.

[Matches]

The two are totally different types of players. DeLaurier is way more athletic but way less skilled and not nearly as savvy. If anything, DeLaurier is closer in style to Lance Thomas than Amile Jefferson. But even that's not a great comp, as Thomas was a better on-ball and team defender whereas DeLaurier is way more athletic and a better defensive playmaker (blocked shots and steals).

I could see DeLaurier having a very strong senior year. I don't think it will look anything like Amile Jefferson though.

Javin actually reminds me more of Mason Plumlee. MP2 had all the athleticism but had bad hands and exhibited low BB IQ until his senior season. I don't expect Javin to make quite that kind of jump, but if he can limit his fouls he could be a defensive and rebounding terror.

[Natty_B]

Duke should look at transfer David Jenkins Jr from south dakota state 6-2 guard, 80% FT shooter, 45% 3 point shooter averaged almost 20 a game this year.

Jenkins Jr. would need to sit one year and will probably follow his coach to UNLV. Last year The Athletic tried to track all the grad transfers (not an easy task as the list gets long).

[jimsumner]

Javin actually reminds me more of Mason Plumlee. MP2 had all the athleticism but had bad hands and exhibited low BB IQ until his senior season. I don't expect Javin to make quite that kind of jump, but if he can limit his fouls he could be a defensive and rebounding terror.

Do you mean Marshall Plumlee? Mason Plumlee averaged 11 points and nine rebounds as a junior and made 3rd-team All-ACC. No offense to DeLaurier, but Mason Plumlee was well ahead of him at every stage of their development. I just don't see the comparison.

[Matches]

Do you mean Marshall Plumlee? Mason Plumlee averaged 11 points and nine rebounds as a junior and made 3rd-team All-ACC. No offense to DeLaurier, but Mason Plumlee was well ahead of him at every stage of their development. I just don't see the comparison.

Nah I meant Mason. I know his junior year stats were good but even near the end of that season he was pretty raw offensively and hadn't quite harnessed his natural athleticism. I recall one game in particular where he had such a bad case of fumble-itis that someone on twitter joked that the aliens from Space Jam had stolen his basketball powers.

Javin seems that way to me sometimes too. Dude can jump out of the gym but kind of seems a half-step out of step with the actual game.

[CDu]

Do you mean Marshall Plumlee? Mason Plumlee averaged 11 points and nine rebounds as a junior and made 3rd-team All-ACC. No offense to DeLaurier, but Mason Plumlee was well ahead of him at every stage of their development. I just don't see the comparison.

Yeah, stylistically I can somewhat see the comparison. Plumlee had more skill though, even as a freshman. And was way stronger and more coordinated. But there are some similarities in terms of athleticism, bad/not-great hands, and lack of shooting ability. It's a closer comparison in terms of attributes than Jefferson, but obviously Plumlee was much better than DeLaurier.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Javin seems that way to me sometimes too. Dude can jump out of the gym but kind of seems a half-step out of step with the actual game.

Yep, he's late on this jumps a lot it seems....he runs into teammates too often.....(poked MB3 in the eye, almost undercut Zion badly this season at least once) he does just seem a tad out of step. But the raw athleticism is there.

[KandG]

Nah I meant Mason. I know his junior year stats were good but even near the end of that season he was pretty raw offensively and hadn't quite harnessed his natural athleticism. I recall one game in particular where he had such a bad case of fumble-itis that someone on twitter joked that the aliens from Space Jam had stolen his basketball powers.

Javin seems that way to me sometimes too. Dude can jump out of the gym but kind of seems a half-step out of step with the actual game.

In terms of propensity to turn the ball over, Mason and Javin's stats were loosely similar the first two years (though Javin played very few games as a freshman). However, Mason always had a better feel for the game, especially passing out of the post.

I agree with Jim that I don't think they're really all that comparable, however loose Mason could be with the ball. Mason brought his turnover rate down considerably (below 20% his last two seasons) as his usage increased from a role player to a high level starter (21.1 usage his junior year and 24.5 his senior year).

Javin's usage has always been microscopic given he plays with one-and-done supernovas (in the 10 range), yet his turnover rate this season actually *increased* to 23.7. He still has a ways to go, and I hope his upward progression as a player toward the end of this season continues next year.

[53n206]

[QUOTE=dukelion;1151752]The misconception among many is that it was one of best/most efficient offenses in Duke history due in large part to Zion and RJ. My point is that is simply not true. Yes we were still a very good offense but the reality is that this was one of the best defensive teams in Duke's history which is the main reason we had a shot at competing for a championship this year.

2 scorers; after which mediocre offense. No really consistent outside shooters. Am surprised we got this far. With Redick we win it all.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

[QUOTE=dukelion;1151752]The misconception among many is that it was one of best/most efficient offenses in Duke history due in large part to Zion and RJ. My point is that is simply not true. Yes we were still a very good offense but the reality is that this was one of the best defensive teams in Duke's history which is the main reason we had a shot at competing for a championship this year.

2 scorers; after which mediocre offense. No really consistent outside shooters. Am surprised we got this far. With Redick we win it all.

Heck, with Gary Trent we probably win it all. (and maybe he shoulda been here...)

[ncexnyc]

There's only one returning player who I believe is capable of taking his game to a significantly higher level and that's AOC.
Javin won't learn how to dribble or shoot over the off season.
Bolden started to show some decent post moves, but I wouldn't expect anything more than some consistency next season.
Jordan really lacks the ability to shoot the ball and I don't see a huge step-up in that area. Some improvement yes, and by his senior season he might be quite serviceable, but not next year.
White doesn't have a handle and people talk about him regressing, but maybe, just maybe how he shot the ball at the start of the season wasn't who he truly is as a player.
Baker supposedly has the stroke, but we really didn't see much from him in the few minutes he played this year.
And that brings me back to AOC. The kid can shoot and he does handle the ball fairly well. Given the time and the opportunity without having to worry about a quick hook I can easily see him being a 15PPG player.

[kAzE]

There's only one returning player who I believe is capable of taking his game to a significantly higher level and that's AOC.

I'm not as optimistic about O'Connell. He's good shooter, but not as consistent as you would hope for in a shooting specialist. The bigger issue is his decision making, which on both ends has been very questionable. Basketball IQ isn't something you can get in the gym and quickly develop over a summer. I can definitely see him improving, but not to the point where he's a 15 PPG scorer. He had his moments this year, but he needs to hit shots to help this team. Hopefully, he can be a more reliable shooter off the bench next season.

Joey Baker intrigues me, though. It seems like most of the folks in this thread are sleeping on him. The kid has size, athleticism, and plays hard. I'm very interested to see if he can earn himself a role, maybe even as a starter. Given where he was ranked in the class of 2019 (5 star prospect, #27 overall) before he reclassified, and that he's had a one year head start (practicing against RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Zion Williamson, no less) over the incoming freshmen, I could see him being a major contributor next season.

[KandG]

Joey Baker intrigues me, though. It seems like most of the folks in this thread are sleeping on him. The kid has size, athleticism, and plays hard. I'm very interested to see if he can earn himself a starting role. Given where he was ranked in the class of 2019 before he reclassified, and that he's had a one year head start over the incoming freshmen, I could see him being a major contributor next season.

I'm with you on this. We've seen way too little of him to speculate with any degree of confidence, but his feet on defense look better than AOC's, and his size and athleticism as you said also look promising. If his shooting stroke lives up to the hype with more minutes, I'm excited about what he can give us.

I also feel weirdly confident in Bolden's ability to take yet another modest step forward if his body doesn't betray him. He'll never be Wendell Carter, but he can be a more consistent contributor with what he's shown this season.

[proelitedota]

The more I think about it the more I think Hurt is not a must need recruit. We already have a player capable of playing a similar role in Joey Baker. If VCJ is bad at defense or rebounding we would benefit more from having Javin start. In a pinch we can put Moore at the 4 ala Winslow.

I worry with Hurt that he lacks length for the 4 with a 6'9 wingspan.

The SG spot if Tre returns is the biggest unknown at the moment.

[ChillinDuke]

Because he's not a sure fire 1st round pick, he's a borderline 1st round pick, with the main knock against him that he can't shoot. If he gets drafted, he'll spend the entire year in the G-League. Which is what happened to guys like Gary Trent and Duval. If that's what he wants, that's what he'll get. Or alternatively, he can come back and be the spotlight player for Duke, improve his shot and gets drafted in the 1st round and start his career in the NBA.

I think there is a decent chance he opt to stay.

The bolded is exactly where these sorts of comments fall short of reality. Sure, your alternative is possible.

But how about this alternative? He can come back, fail to garner much of a spotlight on another crowded team next year, not show any meaningful improvement in his shot and start regressing similar to Greg Paulus only to lose any chance at playing in the NBA whatsoever.

Obviously, that's not the alternative I want. Or anyone wants. But it's just so glaringly incorrect to point out two alternatives as (1) G-League or (2) dramatic improvement at Duke/stardom/more money/more fame/better looking/HOORAY!

I'm being intentionally harsh here, so I apologize. But people always point to these upside tracks for players staying at Duke. There's a downside. An obvious and totally real downside. We've seen players go through it. And then we hand wave it away as some unfortunate circumstance in 1 or 2 or 3 years.

If you want what's best for Tre, you have to consider both sides of the coin. This kid has dreamed of playing in the NBA his entire life. He's right on the cusp of achieving that dream. There's an upside and a downside scenario, and scenarios in between. Those downsides are totally meaningful and not lost on prospects, and I imagine they play a lot into the rationale into leaving. Rationale that people around here too often ignore or don't admit.

It's not just about this season's performance. A lot of variables.

- Chillin

[UrinalCake]

There's only one returning player who I believe is capable of taking his game to a significantly higher level and that's AOC.

I tend to agree with this. Really wish Alex had gotten more playing time this season. There's no substitute for actual in-game experience, and I think he could have developed into more of a contributor had he been given the opportunity. For all the talk of how we need to recruit more next-tier, non-OAD players to develop continuity, we had exactly that sitting on our bench and hardly used him. He also had the one skill we desperately needed in his outside shooting, and I think we had enough to overcome his defensive liabilities (which also would have improved had we been willing to live through his mistakes). He has a summer to bulk up and address his weaknesses. Hopefully he establishes himself early on and gains K's trust so he can be in the rotation. Grayson and Luke both made huge leaps before their sophomore seasons; would love for AOC to do so a year later.

As for the front court, Bolden and Javin will form a senior core that will be reliable if unspectacular. If we get the best version of each of them that we saw this season, even with no improvement, that will still be an excellent combination. Kind of reminds me of Hicks and Kennedy Meeks from down the road on their recent title team. Combined with Carey I really think our front court is set. I don't understand the desire to bring in Watford unless he's going to be content to ride the bench for a year. Adding Hurt would be welcome, but will also create somewhat of a logjam unless he can play the 3. If we're trying to get minutes for Carey, Hurt, Javin and Bolden then I see us going zone with a twin towers lineup much like 2018. Or maybe 2010 would be a better comparison with the frontcourt platoon. Start Carey and Javin together, then bring in Hurt and Bolden. That gives us some spacing and keeps an experienced guy on the floor.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Because he's not a sure fire 1st round pick, he's a borderline 1st round pick, with the main knock against him that he can't shoot. If he gets drafted, he'll spend the entire year in the G-League. Which is what happened to guys like Gary Trent and Duval. If that's what he wants, that's what he'll get. Or alternatively, he can come back and be the spotlight player for Duke, improve his shot and gets drafted in the 1st round and start his career in the NBA.

I think there is a decent chance he opt to stay.

When I said this about the G league earlier in the week, someone felt the need to flame my comment. Go figure.

[UrinalCake]

If he gets drafted, he'll spend the entire year in the G-League. Which is what happened to guys like Gary Trent and Duval. If that's what he wants, that's what he'll get. Or alternatively, he can come back and be the spotlight player for Duke, improve his shot and gets drafted in the 1st round and start his career in the NBA.

The thing is, Trent and Duval were more suited to starting off in the G-League and working their way up because they had the types of games that would allow them to put up numbers. Tre does not. The things he does well (one on one defense, protecting the ball, running the team) would be completely lost in a G-League setting where every player is just trying to fill up the box score so they can get a call up. He might rack up some assists but would otherwise disappear. So from that standpoint it makes even more sense for Tre to stay. He looked the most devastated of all of the freshmen after that last game, it was hard to watch. Maybe that will motivate him to come back and make another run, or maybe he'll decide he doesn't want to go through it all again. We shall see....

[proelitedota]

If you want what's best for Tre, you have to consider both sides of the coin. This kid has dreamed of playing in the NBA his entire life. He's right on the cusp of achieving that dream.
- Chillin

Wrong. Tre has dreamed of playing at Duke his entire life. He achieved that dream. It's up to him to decide whether or not his experience playing was up to his expectations.

If he liked his experience, he is staying.

If not he is leaving.

[Hartford Dukie]

Wrong. Tre has dreamed of playing at Duke his entire life. He achieved that dream. It's up to him to decide whether or not his experience playing was up to his expectations.

If he liked his experience, he is staying.

If not he is leaving.

Tre may like his experience at Duke and also decide to leave. He may be told he will go in the first round and decide he should seize that opportunity, even though he likes/loves his time at Duke. For my own Duke-basketball-centric reasons, I hope he stays, but lets not begrudge him anything if he decides to leave - and certainly not assume its because he hasn't liked his time at Duke.

[dukelifer]

The thing is, Trent and Duval were more suited to starting off in the G-League and working their way up because they had the types of games that would allow them to put up numbers. Tre does not. The things he does well (one on one defense, protecting the ball, running the team) would be completely lost in a G-League setting where every player is just trying to fill up the box score so they can get a call up. He might rack up some assists but would otherwise disappear. So from that standpoint it makes even more sense for Tre to stay. He looked the most devastated of all of the freshmen after that last game, it was hard to watch. Maybe that will motivate him to come back and make another run, or maybe he'll decide he doesn't want to go through it all again. We shall see...

He could stay to work on his game- and probably would have a better experience than in the G league- but if a late first rounder- the money is too good to pass up. The question is whether a team will take a smallish pt guard who will face much bigger and stronger guards in the league- or a very good wing defender in the first round. It is a tough call for him. if a second rounder he may elect to stay. His brother will have a lot to say here.

[cbarry]

I interpreted his devastation as “that was my last college game”...

Whether Tre SHOULD go pro this year (he shouldn’t) and whether he WILL go pro (he 100% will), are completely different questions.


He looked the most devastated of all of the freshmen after that last game, it was hard to watch. Maybe that will motivate him to come back and make another run, or maybe he'll decide he doesn't want to go through it all again. We shall see...

[Saratoga2]

I tend to agree with this. Really wish Alex had gotten more playing time this season. There's no substitute for actual in-game experience, and I think he could have developed into more of a contributor had he been given the opportunity. For all the talk of how we need to recruit more next-tier, non-OAD players to develop continuity, we had exactly that sitting on our bench and hardly used him. He also had the one skill we desperately needed in his outside shooting, and I think we had enough to overcome his defensive liabilities (which also would have improved had we been willing to live through his mistakes). He has a summer to bulk up and address his weaknesses. Hopefully he establishes himself early on and gains K's trust so he can be in the rotation. Grayson and Luke both made huge leaps before their sophomore seasons; would love for AOC to do so a year later.



I thought AOC would do well in an offense like Virginia's where he would get to run off screens and be encouraged to do so. He has the size, quickness and shot to do well but his BB IQ needs to be further developed.

I also noticed that AOC was very deferential when our star players were on the floor, showing little in the way of aggressive offensive play. I remember him playing for w while with our second group, where he might consider himself one of the best scorers in the group on the floor. He certainly became more aggressive offensively so maybe not having big stars on the team will result in a different midset for him. He does need to gain strength. He appeared to have gained 10 pounds last year and another 10 this offseason might really help him.

[proelitedota]

I interpreted his devastation as “that was my last college game”...

Whether Tre SHOULD go pro this year (he shouldn’t) and whether he WILL go pro (he 100% will), are completely different questions.

Uhhh.

Scheyer, Lance, Zoubs, Henderson were equally devastated following the VCU loss.

[wsb3]

[QUOTE=53n206;1151975]

Heck, with Gary Trent we probably win it all. (and maybe he shoulda been here...)

Beat me to it..

[HCheek37]

Another grad transfer that could fit our profile would be Nate Sestina (6'9") but I'd guess with 3 big men already on the roster and Hurt possibly joining, Sestina might not consider us.

He visited Kentucky yesterday so Cal is already on this path but Sestina was a star at Bucknell this year:

38% from 3 on 108 attempts
81% from the line
61% from 2 point range

[proelitedota]

Gary Trent had such ice in his veins. One of my favorite killers ever not named Brandon Flowers.

[kAzE]

The bolded is exactly where these sorts of comments fall short of reality. Sure, your alternative is possible.

But how about this alternative? He can come back, fail to garner much of a spotlight on another crowded team next year, not show any meaningful improvement in his shot and start regressing similar to Greg Paulus only to lose any chance at playing in the NBA whatsoever.

I'm not sure Greg Paulus is the best guy to support your argument here . . . Greg had a very nice freshman season, but he was never going to have a career in the NBA whether he went pro after 1 year or otherwise.

[jv001]

He could stay to work on his game- and probably would have a better experience than in the G league- but if a late first rounder- the money is too good to pass up. The question is whether a team will take a smallish pt guard who will face much bigger and stronger guards in the league- or a very good wing defender in the first round. It is a tough call for him. if a second rounder he may elect to stay. His brother will have a lot to say here.

I think Tre has a lot to think about. He certainly needs work on his shot but his defense is very good. The question remains will his shot improve enough for him to stick in the NBA? If he stays one more year at Duke, he'll be able to work on his shot and also get closer to a degree from Duke University. The latter would be security for him the rest of his life. I know he has dreams of being an NBA player but it's not a lock that he will be. Like I said, he has a lot to think about. What ever his choice, I'll be rooting for him. GoDuke!

[Duke79UNLV77]

I interpreted his devastation as “that was my last college game”...

Whether Tre SHOULD go pro this year (he shouldn’t) and whether he WILL go pro (he 100% will), are completely different questions.

Tre wanted to follow in the footsteps of his brother, he loves his teammates, the FF is in his hometown, and his mother is battling breast cancer. He had plenty of reasons to be emotional.

[sagegrouse]

When I said this about the G league earlier in the week, someone felt the need to flame my comment. Go figure.

You know, some things are personal.:rolleyes:

[HereBeforeCoachK]

You know, some things are personal.:rolleyes:

Far too many at times.......far too many.....

[Steven43]

If you want what's best for Tre, you have to consider both sides of the coin. This kid has dreamed of playing in the NBA his entire life.

His ENTIRE life, huh? What is Tre, 18? 19? He probably didn’t really start dreaming of the NBA until he was 10 or 11. Maybe even later. Hell, Tony Parker’s announcement ceremony for UCLA took longer than Tre’s been dreaming. Color me unmoved.

[duke2x]

Another grad transfer that could fit our profile would be Nate Sestina (6'9") but I'd guess with 3 big men already on the roster and Hurt possibly joining, Sestina might not consider us.

He visited Kentucky yesterday so Cal is already on this path but Sestina was a star at Bucknell this year:

38% from 3 on 108 attempts
81% from the line
61% from 2 point range

Lehigh has a similar grad student transfer that has about 7-10 offers from lesser programs (NW, Wake, etc). Coach K has been consistent about avoiding transfers. The old adage that relying on transfers is not a sign of a healthy program is a sign of the past, IMO. Modern players are too impatient. It has worked very well for baseball and helped lacrosse.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

If you want what's best for Tre, you have to consider both sides of the coin. This kid has dreamed of playing in the NBA his entire life. He's right on the cusp of achieving that dream.
- Chillin

I don't think it's wise to assume he's on the cusp of being on an NBA court and living that dream. I think another year at Duke might actually help with that dream. Or the G league, but I think Duke would be more fun. (I also think he'll seek Tyus' guidance....whatever that might be).

[Reilly]

... get closer to a degree from Duke University. The latter would be security for him the rest of his life ...

I'm guessing Tre's security for the rest of his life will depend on his work ethic, positive attitude, competitiveness, winning personality etc... rather than a Duke degree. And he'll have that lifetime security if he has those attributes (and he seems to), and that's true no matter whether he sticks in the NBA or not. I think the same is true for the rest of us, as well.

[Steven43]

I'm guessing Tre's security for the rest of his life will depend on his work ethic, positive attitude, competitiveness, winning personality etc... rather than a Duke degree. And he'll have that lifetime security if he has those attributes (and he seems to), and that's true no matter whether he sticks in the NBA or not. I think the same is true for the rest of us, as well.

There are probably millions of people around the world working for minimum wage or less who have all of the attributes you mention, but do not have security for the rest of their lives. I’ll take the Duke degree.

[freshmanjs]

I'm guessing Tre's security for the rest of his life will depend on his work ethic, positive attitude, competitiveness, winning personality etc... rather than a Duke degree. And he'll have that lifetime security if he has those attributes (and he seems to), and that's true no matter whether he sticks in the NBA or not. I think the same is true for the rest of us, as well.


There are probably millions of people around the world working for minimum wage or less who have all of the attributes you mention, but do not have security for the rest of their lives. I’ll take the Duke degree.

Can get the Duke degree anytime. The window to earn money playing basketball is short. It's not like going pro now in any way makes it harder for him to get a degree when he wants to. This is often framed as a tradeoff, but it's actually not.

[Steven43]

Can get the Duke degree anytime. The window to earn money playing basketball is short. It's not like going pro now in any way makes it harder for him to get a degree when he wants to. This is often framed as a tradeoff, but it's actually not.
You’re probably right, but that is not evidence that Tre should try to turn pro now. He might flame out and be done with basketball in a couple of years. But if he returns to Duke it could allow his game, and himself as a person, to develop in an environment more nurturing than G League where he can be the team leader and develop skills that he might not as readily develop in the G League. The decision to return to Duke could end up being the thing that leads to a long, successful NBA career.

[Dukehk]

Can get the Duke degree anytime. The window to earn money playing basketball is short. It's not like going pro now in any way makes it harder for him to get a degree when he wants to. This is often framed as a tradeoff, but it's actually not.

Agree that basketball careers are short.

However, Tre should come back and play himself into the lottery/mid-first round because that maximizes his earnings in the long term. Getting drafted in the 2nd round most likely means you see no playing time and are bouncing around in the G-league with a real chance to be out of the league in a few years.

I'm also not in the boat where "Getting a Duke degree" would be beneficial to him. He is a pro basketball player looking to leverage his time at Duke into a successful professional career. Lets call it as it is. He didn't come to Duke for academics.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Can get the Duke degree anytime. The window to earn money playing basketball is short. It's not like going pro now in any way makes it harder for him to get a degree when he wants to. This is often framed as a tradeoff, but it's actually not.

I'm not going to frame this as a degree or no degree tradeoff for the reasons you mentioned. However, I am not convinced that the "window is open" for him in the NBA at this time. I don't think he's even close to ready for the NBA right now, but of course, people with the personnel and GM jobs will determine that. And I realize that another year at Duke is no guarantee he'll be more highly thought of a year from now by the NBA either.

I wish him the best whatever he decides....but in this case, I think maybe his best interests and ours as Duke fans coincide.

[budwom]

Agree that basketball careers are short.

However, Tre should come back and play himself into the lottery/mid-first round because that maximizes his earnings in the long term. Getting drafted in the 2nd round most likely means you see no playing time and are bouncing around in the G-league with a real chance to be out of the league in a few years.

I'm also not in the boat where "Getting a Duke degree" would be beneficial to him. He is a pro basketball player looking to leverage his time at Duke into a successful professional career. Lets call it as it is. He didn't come to Duke for academics.

I don't fret about this stuff any more, if they go they go...but, surprisingly enough, the latest CBS draft projection (FWIW) has Jones going #17 to Deetroit City....so according to them, he's in the mid first round already.

[freshmanjs]

You’re probably right, but that is not evidence that Tre should try to turn pro now. He might flame out and be done with basketball in a couple of years. But if he returns to Duke it could allow his game, and himself as a person, to develop in an environment more nurturing than G League where he can be the team leader and develop skills that he might not as readily develop in the G League. The decision to return to Duke could end up being the thing that leads to a long, successful NBA career.


Agree that basketball careers are short.

However, Tre should come back and play himself into the lottery/mid-first round because that maximizes his earnings in the long term. Getting drafted in the 2nd round most likely means you see no playing time and are bouncing around in the G-league with a real chance to be out of the league in a few years.

I'm also not in the boat where "Getting a Duke degree" would be beneficial to him. He is a pro basketball player looking to leverage his time at Duke into a successful professional career. Lets call it as it is. He didn't come to Duke for academics.


I'm not going to frame this as a degree or no degree tradeoff for the reasons you mentioned. However, I am not convinced that the "window is open" for him in the NBA at this time. I don't think he's even close to ready for the NBA right now, but of course, people with the personnel and GM jobs will determine that. And I realize that another year at Duke is no guarantee he'll be more highly thought of a year from now by the NBA either.

I wish him the best whatever he decides...but in this case, I think maybe his best interests and ours as Duke fans coincide.


I agree. I wasn't saying he should go. Just that the decision really doesn't have anything to do with whether he ultimately wants a degree or not.

[sagegrouse]

Can get the Duke degree anytime. The window to earn money playing basketball is short. It's not like going pro now in any way makes it harder for him to get a degree when he wants to. This is often framed as a tradeoff, but it's actually not.


You’re probably right, but that is not evidence that Tre should try to turn pro now. He might flame out and be done with basketball in a couple of years. But if he returns to Duke it could allow his game, and himself as a person, to develop in an environment more nurturing than G League where he can be the team leader and develop skills that he might not as readily develop in the G League. The decision to return to Duke could end up being the thing that leads to a long, successful NBA career.

Two years at Duke should put him close to a degree, counting all the summer school the guys take. One year at Duke -- not nearly so likely to finish. Usually, one thinks that college coaching requires a degree.

[Dukehk]

I don't fret about this stuff any more, if they go they go...but, surprisingly enough, the latest CBS draft projection (FWIW) has Jones going #17 to Deetroit City...so according to them, he's in the mid first round already.

If its gary parrish he is rubbish in terms of mock drafts and is known to be very anti-duke!

A more accurate site is probably nbadraft.net which has Tre projected in the early second round right now. Jonathan Givony is now at ESPN but their mock draft is behind a paywall. I think he has Tre late first round/early second as well.

Really hoping Tre comes back and takes the Jay Williams route of graduating in 3 years. You can tell how much he loves Duke.

[gofurman]

I'm with you on this. We've seen way too little of him to speculate with any degree of confidence, but his feet on defense look better than AOC's, and his size and athleticism as you said also look promising. If his shooting stroke lives up to the hype with more minutes, I'm excited about what he can give us.

I also feel weirdly confident in Bolden's ability to take yet another modest step forward if his body doesn't betray him. He'll never be Wendell Carter, but he can be a more consistent contributor with what he's shown this season.

Agree the three POSSIBLE peeps to step up are Baker. AOC. Bolden. Bolden has least variance as he is older and was improved. Baker is most unknown as coaches put him. In based on strong practices and he is youngest. Really a freshman. If all the returnees make some upgrade (they should w all off season) we could be pretty good. Less athletic team but more upperclassmen and shooting. shoot shoot shoot all off season.

[gofurman]

Wrong. Tre has dreamed of playing at Duke his entire life. He achieved that dream. It's up to him to decide whether or not his experience playing was up to his expectations.

If he liked his experience, he is staying.

If not he is leaving.

I bet Zion liked his time at Duke. And he is leaving. Sorry if sounded somewhat rude. It’s just not that simple. That’s all. Lots of factors. What NBA tells him. Etc

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Agree the three possible peeps to step up are Baker. AOC. Bolden. Bolden has least variance as he is older and was improved. Baker is most unknown as coaches put him
In based on strong practices and he is youngest. Really a freshman. If all the returnees make some upgrade (they should w all off season) we could be pretty good. Less athletic team but more upperclassmen and shooting

I'm reminded a bit of the 86-87 team....of course decimated by graduation (Dawkins Alarie Henderson Bilas) with only Amaker returning. People we didn't know like John Smith and Kevin Strickland and others stepped up...along with people we know like Ferry and King...and freshmen Alaa, Brickey and Phil H...and the team was very good again.

This was a critical year for K in my opinion...no nattys at the time...but this team proved that 86 wasn't a one time thing. Of course, this team developed into the program that went to 5 FFs in a row. Maybe we'll have AOC and White and Ques and Jav step up, with the frosh, and have another really good transition year.

[DukieInBrasil]

If its gary parrish he is rubbish in terms of mock drafts and is known to be very anti-duke!

A more accurate site is probably nbadraft.net which has Tre projected in the early second round right now. Jonathan Givony is now at ESPN but their mock draft is behind a paywall. I think he has Tre late first round/early second as well.

Really hoping Tre comes back and takes the Jay Williams route of graduating in 3 years. You can tell how much he loves Duke.

Wasn't Trevon Duval also projected in the 2nd round? of course, he then went undrafted. Still, he made a few appearances in the NBA this year and acquitted himself well enough there.
If Tre Jones even looks at Trevon as a yardstick, so to speak, would that sort of result be an enticement? Trevon didn't make very much money, relative to NBA earnings, and may/not have moved the needle in terms of long-term earning potential. So my take on it is: would Tre enjoy or benefit from another year at Duke more than toiling in the G-league for a year+? Trevon, by all accounts, didn't care to be at Duke. Tre otoh at least was a big fan before coming, so if he enjoyed his year at Duke, that might lead him to come back.
I agree with Sage, that i think his interests and fans' interest coincide on coming back to Duke.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I bet Zion liked his time at Duke. And he is leaving. Sorry if sounded somewhat rude. It’s just not that simple. That’s all. Lots of factors. What NBA tells him. Etc

Zion is not at all an applicable analogy in this case. He's guaranteed number one pick overall. That's simply not anything like any other players' situation....

[kAzE]

Eh, I'm not that interested in debating the implications of Tre Jones's decision to stay or leave on his career. That's his decision to make, and he has people who will help him do what's right for him.

That said, if he comes back, this will be a top 5 team. If he goes pro and we don't have a backup plan, we're going to be very thin at the guard position. But I assume that a backup plan is in place (maybe that Kira guy?).

I do think he'll be back. I even made a pie bet on it.

[UrinalCake]

Wasn't Trevon Duval also projected in the 2nd round? of course, he then went undrafted. Still, he made a few appearances in the NBA this year and acquitted himself well enough there.

Duval was in approximately the same situation as Jones with regards to draft status. At this time a year ago, one mock still had him in the mid-first round but that was an outlier. Most had him at the end of the first or early second. He chose to skip the combine (which was a mistake in my opinion) and other players moved up as teams started to learn more about then, as is often the case. If you look at some of the point guards that were taken in the second round over Duval, there's a bunch of guys I'd never even heard of.

But Duval also had NBA measurables and athleticism and was the type of guy who could be drafted on potential. He was ranked in the top-10 out of high school and that still counts for something in terms of draft status (some feel that an evaluation over four years of high school is more meaningful than 30 college games). Plus he knew that if he returned to Duke, he would be splitting time with Tre. He would be asked to play more off the ball, which wouldn't allow him to develop the skills that he needed to improve upon. So it made more sense for him to go when he did, even though I think he still could have benefitted by returning.

Jones's case is different. If he returns he will be the leader of a young team with far less star power. He'll be called upon to score more, which is exactly what he needs to show the NBA scouts. He has a realistic shot to improve his draft stock and better his chances at having a longer NBA career.

[wsb3]

This was a critical year for K in my opinion...no nattys at the time...but this team proved that 86 wasn't a one time thing. Of course, this team developed into the program that went to 5 FFs in a row. Maybe we'll have AOC and White and Ques and Jav step up, with the frosh, and have another really good transition year.

Very good & you just killed my idea I had for a thread in the summer when we have debates about things like jersey retirement, (older players not Zion) minutes, and my favorite how deep we are going to be in the coming season...:rolleyes: It would have doubled my thread starting to 2 after all these years..:)

[Dukebasketball2020]

Someone brought this up in another thread but if you look at Cam's highschool highlights he was a good passer, drove in the middle of the lane quite a bit, and pulled up for 3 off the dribble a lot. I didn't see this at all this year, he only spot up and shot, and when he did drive it was on the wing which he barely did.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Wasn't Trevon Duval also projected in the 2nd round? of course, he then went undrafted. Still, he made a few appearances in the NBA this year and acquitted himself well enough there.
If Tre Jones even looks at Trevon as a yardstick, so to speak, would that sort of result be an enticement? Trevon didn't make very much money, relative to NBA earnings, and may/not have moved the needle in terms of long-term earning potential. So my take on it is: would Tre enjoy or benefit from another year at Duke more than toiling in the G-league for a year+? Trevon, by all accounts, didn't care to be at Duke. Tre otoh at least was a big fan before coming, so if he enjoyed his year at Duke, that might lead him to come back.
I agree with Sage, that i think his interests and fans' interest coincide on coming back to Duke.

Duval has played 6 minutes in the NBA this year, so I'm not sure that he's acquitted himself there one way or the other. He's average just 3.4 assists in the G-League and shot just 24% from 3, so any feeling that he was misused or under-used at Duke have not been borne out. Milwaukee recently released him, but the Rockets picked him up. I would say that he's in a more precarious position in terms of his NBA future than he would have been had he returned and improved, so I continue to think he made a mistake. Assuming it was Duval or Jones, I can't say there was much of an impact on this year's Duke team.

https://spacecityscoop.com/2019/03/27/houston-rockets-claim-guard-trevon-duval-off-waivers/

Trent Jr. has played 55 minutes in the NBA and shot just 28.6% both from 2 and 3. His dad's comments suggesting that he was misused or underused at Duke also haven't borne out. Trent has averaged 33.3 points, shooting 50% from 3 in 6 G-League games. I would also say he's in a more precarious position in terms of NBA future than he would have been had he returned and improved, and I continue to think he made a mistake. He would have fit in perfectly on this year's team since his biggest strength was the team's biggest weakness.

If I were Jones, I would return because I would worry about sticking in the league if I don't first improve my shot significantly. I can understand either choice, though.

[CDu]

Someone brought this up in another thread but if you look at Cam's highschool highlights he was a good passer, drove in the middle of the lane quite a bit, and pulled up for 3 off the dribble a lot. I didn't see this at all this year, he only spot up and shot, and when he did drive it was on the wing which he barely did.

Level of competition and defensive coordination at the high school level is SOOOOO much inferior to the college game. Reddish was, by far, the most talented player on the court in almost every game he played in high school. On top of that, the lack of size and physicality make a big difference. Reddish couldn't finish through contact in college, because college teams have 6'9"/6'10", 250+lb guys waiting in the lane, and the defenses are much better, more organized, and more aggressive.

And, to be fair, Reddish showed good signs as a passer this year. I thought he was one of our two best passers on lobs (he and Jones) this year. I think the ballhandling dropoff was simply more of a case of seeing a HUGE increase in the speed and physicality and quality of defense.

[Herbie]

My guess is that Tre at least tests the waters by declaring for the draft and going to the evaluation workouts/camps to hear directly from teams how they are evaluating him and what his exact draft status is likely to be. I think the key is going to be how he looks from NBA 3pt range (23'9") when he struggled so much from the much shorter college distance (20'9"). That's a huge jump in distance.

[Steven43]

Trevon, by all accounts, didn't care to be at Duke.

Do you have any info as to what his problem was with being at Duke? Did he not like that Duke student-athletes actually have to study? That’s just a wild guess, of course; I have no idea.

[scottdude8]

Eh, I'm not that interested in debating the implications of Tre Jones's decision to stay or leave on his career. That's his decision to make, and he has people who will help him do what's right for him.

That said, if he comes back, this will be a top 5 team. If he goes pro and we don't have a backup plan, we're going to be very thin at the guard position. But I assume that a backup plan is in place (maybe that Kira guy?).

I do think he'll be back. I even made a pie bet on it.

I'm very much with you here. If we have a top-tier PG, there's every reason to believe we can be a title contender next year if the off season goes according to plan (i.e. all our veterans return and make some semblance of the improvement we're speculating of them). Heck, if Tre comes back I'd reckon he'd be due for the biggest jump of any of our returners, especially considering he'd know he'd be playing on a team where he'd be called upon to be more aggressive offensively. Lost in the fact that Tre didn't put up big scoring numbers was the fact that he showed a solid ability to penetrate and get to the rim/midrange when necessary... he just did that to pass because of how immensely talented our wings were. On a team where he has experienced shooters surrounding him and a solid post scoring option in Carey, he'd have a different role to play, and I think he could really shine in it... which is why I'm holding out so much hope that he returns.

I've been trying super hard not to get into the "possible starting 5" discussion, but considering it's inevitable, just consider this team:
Tre Jones
Joey Baker or AOC
Wendell Moore
Javin DeLaurier
Vernon Carey

That's a talented starting five right there, and one that makes a lot of sense in terms of the players roles... not to mention we'd still have Jack off the bench, hopefully returning to the super-sub role he showed flashes of early in the season, Marques Bolden off the bench (what an insane luxury that would be!), and a junior Jordan Goldwire to play 5-10 minutes a game giving Tre a rest and/or playing in a super pressure D lineup.

That all relies on the big if that is Tre's decision. But there's a LOT of reason to be optimistic about next year's team in this scenario. Add in the fact that the top ACC teams are all losing a lot this offseason (especially Carolina!) and we're probably still favored to win the ACC title in this scenario. I think the National Title favorites would likely come from the B1G (both Michigan and Michigan State have the potential to return at least 75% of their contributors from this year's teams), but we'd be up there with them.

Again, speculation speculation speculation. But sometimes we can make ourselves feel a bit better by speculating. This possibility, which I'd put at >50%, makes me feel better today. So I'm going to enjoy it for a few moments.

[mattyoung18]

My guess is that Tre at least tests the waters by declaring for the draft and going to the evaluation workouts/camps to hear directly from teams how they are evaluating him and what his exact draft status is likely to be. I think the key is going to be how he looks from NBA 3pt range (23'9") when he struggled so much from the much shorter college distance (20'9"). That's a huge jump in distance.

I love Tre but he needs major work either at Duke or somewhere cause his outside shot is pitiful.People aren't gurading him that's about as disrespectful as you can get.Its not like he needs money. His game definitely looks like he should be a 3 to 4 year college player.

[MChambers]

Level of competition and defensive coordination at the high school level is SOOOOO much inferior to the college game. Reddish was, by far, the most talented player on the court in almost every game he played in high school. On top of that, the lack of size and physicality make a big difference. Reddish couldn't finish through contact in college, because college teams have 6'9"/6'10", 250+lb guys waiting in the lane, and the defenses are much better, more organized, and more aggressive.

And, to be fair, Reddish showed good signs as a passer this year. I thought he was one of our two best passers on lobs (he and Jones) this year. I think the ballhandling dropoff was simply more of a case of seeing a HUGE increase in the speed and physicality and quality of defense.

You nailed it. I had high hopes for Cam's ballhandling this year, based on his high school reputation. I thought he might be the backup point guard. But his handle was disappointing, especially in traffic.

[scottdude8]

You nailed it. I had high hopes for Cam's ballhandling this year, based on his high school reputation. I thought he might be the backup point guard. But his handle was disappointing, especially in traffic.

If I remember correctly K even said something along those lines pre-season, that Cam would be PG when Tre got a rest.

[Steven43]

If I remember correctly K even said something along those lines pre-season, that Cam would be PG when Tre got a rest.

My gosh, that was wishful thinking.

[proelitedota]

K also said he'll use Zion like he used LeBron...

[flyingdutchdevil]

I love Tre but he needs major work either at Duke or somewhere cause his outside shot is pitiful.People aren't gurading him that's about as disrespectful as you can get.Its not like he needs money. His game definitely looks like he should be a 3 to 4 year college player.

Yup. PGs who cannot score in the NBA aren't valued. And no... Tre cannot score around the rim like Ben Simmons and he isn't a crafty scorer like Rondo.

That shot needs to improve if Tre wants a second contract.

[mattyoung18]

Yup. PGs who cannot score in the NBA aren't valued. And no... Tre cannot score around the rim like Ben Simmons and he isn't a crafty scorer like Rondo.

That shot needs to improve if Tre wants a second contract.

Tre has just about everything you would want from a point.Hes tough on d he moves well but if he cant shoot in college I cringe at what he will look like trying to shoot a NBA 3.Somebody hopefully K will talk him into staying at least 1 more year to work on that 3 ball.Or he could go the JWill way and get his degree in 3years.Maybe Jason Williams will give him some advice.

[MChambers]

Tre has just about everything you would want from a point.Hes tough on d he moves well but if he cant shoot in college I cringe at what he will look like trying to shoot a NBA 3.Somebody hopefully K will talk him into staying at least 1 more year to work on that 3 ball.Or he could go the JWill way and get his degree in 3years.Maybe Jason Williams will give him some advice.

Coach K will not talk Tre into anything. He'll give him honest advice about his choices and Tre will decide, based on that advice and advice from others, including Tre's brother, who probably has the best perspective on the decision.

While I have a little hope that Tre will return, largely because he loves Duke, it's an incredibly personal decision.

Yes, Tre needs to improve his shot to stick in the NBA, but it's very possible to do that in the NBA or the G League (ask Lance Thomas).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Yes, Tre needs to improve his shot to stick in the NBA, but it's very possible to do that in the NBA or the G League (ask Lance Thomas).

Well I don't think Lance went early....to the G league......and yes, you can improve your shot in the G League, but in empty gyms with a lot of indifference floating around, everyone in it for themselves, and very little loyalty to team or teammates. I don't think that fits Tre's personality.....

[proelitedota]

There is a slight, slight chance that Zion and RJ return for their sophmore year, if they get news that guarantees NCAA is allowing player endorsement deals for the offseason.

That way Zion can sign his $100 million Nike deal during the summer, and RJ can sign deals worth tens of millions with Nike, other businesses, etc.

The NCAA would DUMB DUMB DUMB to not entice Zion to stay in school as long as possible.

If it was up to me, I would allow players that are already in college,

1. To sign local / national endorsements and partake in limited amounts endorsement activities during the offseason.
2. Profit from social media such as youtube during the offseason.
3. Return to school even if they're drafted.

They forfeit their athletic scholarship if they are profiting.

[camion]

There is a slight, slight chance that Zion and RJ return for their sophmore year, if they get news that guarantees NCAA is allowing player endorsement deals for the offseason.

That way Zion can sign his $100 million Nike deal during the summer, and RJ can sign deals worth tens of millions with Nike, other businesses, etc.

The NCAA would DUMB DUMB DUMB to not entice Zion to not stay an extra year.

Now we need to find evidence that the NCAA is not DUMB DUMB DUMB. A formidable task. :eek:

[proelitedota]

Now we need to find evidence that the NCAA is not DUMB DUMB DUMB. A formidable task. :eek:

There is the Student athlete equity act that if passed can force their hand, but we know how slow congress moves. :rolleyes:

https://walker.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/walker-introduce-student-athlete-equity-act-allow-ncaa-players-have

[proelitedota]

There is a slight, slight chance that Zion and RJ return for their sophmore year, if they get news that guarantees NCAA is allowing player endorsement deals for the offseason.

That way Zion can sign his $100 million Nike deal during the summer, and RJ can sign deals worth tens of millions with Nike, other businesses, etc.

The NCAA would DUMB DUMB DUMB to not entice Zion to stay in school as long as possible.

If it was up to me, I would allow players that are already in college,

1. To sign local / national endorsements and partake in limited amounts endorsement activities during the offseason.
2. Profit from social media such as youtube during the offseason.
3. Return to school even if they're drafted.

They forfeit their athletic scholarship if they are profiting.

Forgot a point, freshmen should not allowed new endorsement deals in the offseason before they enroll.

[53n206]

I am excited if we get the Javin of the last month back. It seems like the game slowed down for him.

His hands seemed better. Fewer fumbles and dribbles when under the basket. yes, decidedly better.

[UrinalCake]

There is a slight, slight chance that Zion and RJ return for their sophmore year

Why would you even do this to yourself? I am investing my emotional energy into hoping that Tre returns. I think there's a 50% chance. I am reserving a small amount of energy into hoping that Cam comes back, which I would put at 3-5%. I should also say that I tend to WAAAY overestimate the likelihood of players returning. I actually held out hope that Duval, Trent, Jackson, Kennard would return all the way up until the moment they announced. I even believed for a week or so that Carter might come back when that news came out.

Zion and RJ? I'd rather use my brain cells hoping to win the lottery or score a date with a supermodel.

[devildeac]

Why would you even do this to yourself? I am investing my emotional energy into hoping that Tre returns. I think there's a 50% chance. I am reserving a small amount of energy into hoping that Cam comes back, which I would put at 3-5%. I should also say that I tend to WAAAY overestimate the likelihood of players returning. I actually held out hope that Duval, Trent, Jackson, Kennard would return all the way up until the moment they announced. I even believed for a week or so that Carter might come back when that news came out.

Zion and RJ? I'd rather use my brain cells hoping to win the lottery or score a date with a supermodel.

And, failing both of those, I'm available for a beer this month. Or next.

9302

[jipops]

Well now we know Tre is back and it appears there is a great chance that Hurt is in the trunk. This will be the first time we’ve had an experienced pg running the show since ‘13. And Seth wasn’t really a pg.

The last 3 seasons have had exceptional talents like Tatum, Bagley, Zion, and RJ. Next season will be very different in that there won’t be anyone near those levels. I’m not banking on Carey being a dominant talent right away, but I’m sure he’ll make an impact. In a weird way that could be a good thing ( or maybe it won’t). K has relied heavily on guys making iso plays, which is at times frustrating to watch. But hey, it’s hard to get upset at 30 or near 30 wins.

Next season’s team will not have a big time shot creator. I think they will have to rely a lot more on movement off the ball. I don’t think we’ll be as good defensively but Tre will surely help. Once again we’ll be leaning on freshmen who are more talented than the vets but the talent gap isn’t as large. It will be interesting to see what K does to the rotation and who gets squeezed out. We have a potential log jam in the front court and lack production in the back court. I’m hoping either Moore or Ellis is better than their ranking and can contribute right away. Otherwise it may be more realistic that these are two that won’t be contributing much until year 2 or 3.

I really don’t know what other rosters will have so I can’t compare to the potential of other teams. Regardless, I do think the ride will be bumpy but there should be enough skill on this team to rack up a good number of wins. We’re much better off with Tre running the show.

[Dukehk]

Well now we know Tre is back and it appears there is a great chance that Hurt is in the trunk. This will be the first time we’ve had an experienced pg running the show since ‘13. And Seth wasn’t really a pg.

The last 3 seasons have had exceptional talents like Tatum, Bagley, Zion, and RJ. Next season will be very different in that there won’t be anyone near those levels. I’m not banking on Carey being a dominant talent right away, but I’m sure he’ll make an impact. In a weird way that could be a good thing ( or maybe it won’t). K has relied heavily on guys making iso plays, which is at times frustrating to watch. But hey, it’s hard to get upset at 30 or near 30 wins.

Next season’s team will not have a big time shot creator. I think they will have to rely a lot more on movement off the ball. I don’t think we’ll be as good defensively but Tre will surely help. Once again we’ll be leaning on freshmen who are more talented than the vets but the talent gap isn’t as large. It will be interesting to see what K does to the rotation and who gets squeezed out. We have a potential log jam in the front court and lack production in the back court. I’m hoping either Moore or Ellis is better than their ranking and can contribute right away. Otherwise it may be more realistic that these are two that won’t be contributing much until year 2 or 3.

I really don’t know what other rosters will have so I can’t compare to the potential of other teams. Regardless, I do think the ride will be bumpy but there should be enough skill on this team to rack up a good number of wins. We’re much better off with Tre running the show.

On paper and with logical thinking it certainly looks like it’s going to pan out that way!

However, what I’ve learnt after this last few years is that you really really really can’t predict how good freshmen will perform in the next level!

We are so quick to forget that Zion came in relatively “unheralded” and nobody thought he would be better than RJ or even Cam. Turns out he was the complete package or as complete as a true freshman has ever been in he history of college basketball.

We also thought that Duval was going to be an absolute stud in the mold of John Wall or Jay Williams. Turns out we were very very wrong and his shooting deficiencies ultimately doomed him.

I’m optimistic about next years team as long as we have Tre at the helm. We also have a lot of seniors who should be able to contribute more and bring better leadership to the table.

Who knows. Maybe someone like Carey will surprise you and play better defence than shown in his YouTube mixtape highlights. Maybe boogie Ellis is ready to play from day 1 and can shoot the lights out from 3.

A lot to be grateful for this upcoming year. Coach K needs to install a better system than iso ball though.

[lotusland]

Summer Assignments:
1. Tre - Shooting, post passing and being a vocal leader on the court
2. Jav - So much progress this year at catching the ball and going up strong, rebounding and defending without fouling! Keep it up and work on those free throws. Work on your ball handling and shooting for pros in your extra time.

3. Marques - you got your motor running and your shot blocking on this year so now let’s work on tracking and squeezing those rebounds and dialing in those post moves. That up and under move is sweet but the lefty jump hook needs a little work.

4. Jack - your defense and rebounding are superb so now work on your offense. A Reliable 3 point shot is first and foremost but an athletic guy like you should be able get in the lane and score too. We could use 10 ppg from Capt Jack next year.

5. AOC - weight, strength, physicality and poise.
6. JGold - wow what strides you made this year! Work on those threes and be ready to make the defense pay for sagging off.

[johnb]

Crossing fingers about Tre. I think it’s best for him and the team, so it’s a win/win.

As for Cam, simple math would say, “lottery prediction=go pro.” He keeps being told he’s a prototypic NBA player, and he has moments where he looks like he’s ready. If he stays, he could suffer a catastrophic injury, be shown up as average, and/or continue to have practice time limited by classes.

If he goes, the NBA would immediately start writing big checks, and he’d get all the gym time and coaching he could want.

Given the Duke history over the past 10 years, it seems silly to even consider the possibility, but I haven’t read a substantive article about whether an additional year of college is helpful to certain types of very talented players. For example, guys who might mature psychologically with a year or two extra of stardom. This was probably true of Zion, who is not only more highly rated after a Duke year, but is likely a better player than he was 6 months ago. I’d also say that he’s less likely to get injured in the next 5 years with a transition season between hs and the pros. I’m less sure it made any difference for RJ, but maybe. And I’m optimistic an extra year would help Tre not just in where he’ll be drafted but in his overall career trajectory.

For Cam, his greatest upside is to become a Grant Hill point forward with an awesome jump shot (I did say greatest upside). It strikes me that such a role is difficult to develop in an empty gym or in a developmental league, and that he’s not going to be able to grab that role among a bunch of freakily athletic men, at least anytime soon. Next year at Duke, he could grab it, practice it on a public stage, and then transition more smoothly into such a role when he’d be a legitimate top 3 pick into the nba. He’s never spoken publicly about OAD as far as I know, and maybe he’s as ready to get to the pros as were Trent and Duvall, but it strikes me as possible that Cam will ignore the feedback he’s likely to get pre draft, mull over the hundreds of hours of hotel video games he’ll be playing while his nba teammates go to bars, and come back for an additional year as a college student and college star. At best, I’m guessing the likelihood at about 10%, but, without knowing his thoughts, I don’t think it’s 0.

[dukelifer]

Well now we know Tre is back and it appears there is a great chance that Hurt is in the trunk. This will be the first time we’ve had an experienced pg running the show since ‘13. And Seth wasn’t really a pg.

The last 3 seasons have had exceptional talents like Tatum, Bagley, Zion, and RJ. Next season will be very different in that there won’t be anyone near those levels. I’m not banking on Carey being a dominant talent right away, but I’m sure he’ll make an impact. In a weird way that could be a good thing ( or maybe it won’t). K has relied heavily on guys making iso plays, which is at times frustrating to watch. But hey, it’s hard to get upset at 30 or near 30 wins.

Next season’s team will not have a big time shot creator. I think they will have to rely a lot more on movement off the ball. I don’t think we’ll be as good defensively but Tre will surely help. Once again we’ll be leaning on freshmen who are more talented than the vets but the talent gap isn’t as large. It will be interesting to see what K does to the rotation and who gets squeezed out. We have a potential log jam in the front court and lack production in the back court. I’m hoping either Moore or Ellis is better than their ranking and can contribute right away. Otherwise it may be more realistic that these are two that won’t be contributing much until year 2 or 3.

I really don’t know what other rosters will have so I can’t compare to the potential of other teams. Regardless, I do think the ride will be bumpy but there should be enough skill on this team to rack up a good number of wins. We’re much better off with Tre running the show.

Watching Moore play in the McDonalds game I think he is going to surprise. He has a maturity to his game and can create his own shot. Small sample size but I liked what I saw. From what I can tell- Ellis is a scorer. He will be a weapon and will have more freedom if Tre is running the show. As for the others - big wide centers tend to do okay in college. Carey will need a pt guard to get him the ball but he will be solid. No idea about Hurt- should he come- but hopefully his shooting is consistent. The biggest concern is defense. The hope is that Tre can help these guys learn the ropes.

[Saratoga2]

Watching Moore play in the McDonalds game I think he is going to surprise. He has a maturity to his game and can create his own shot. Small sample size but I liked what I saw. From what I can tell- Ellis is a scorer. He will be a weapon and will have more freedom if Tre is running the show. As for the others - big wide centers tend to do okay in college. Carey will need a pt guard to get him the ball but he will be solid. No idea about Hurt- should he come- but hopefully his shooting is consistent. The biggest concern is defense. The hope is that Tre can help these guys learn the ropes.

If Tre really does come back, I still think we need the contributions of another guard who can challenge the defense by posing a threat from 3 and be able to blow by and penetrate if guarded closely. The two guys who are candidates for that role are Alex and Boogie. Alex seemed to treat the ball like a hot potato last season and was extremely deferential to our stars. I did notice during the few times we were late in the game with a lead he took on a much more aggressive approach and looked good doing it. So the hope is he will get stronger and take on more next season. He has the quickness, shot and handle needed to step up. Will he see himself in that way? Boogie is a slightly built guy and all I have seen of him is in the films where the best is shown. He appears to have nice shooting form and a decent handle, so there is hope for him. Jordan is a wild card but it is not impossible for him to develop a scoring touch. Tune in next season.

[dukelifer]

If Tre really does come back, I still think we need the contributions of another guard who can challenge the defense by posing a threat from 3 and be able to blow by and penetrate if guarded closely. The two guys who are candidates for that role are Alex and Boogie. Alex seemed to treat the ball like a hot potato last season and was extremely deferential to our stars. I did notice during the few times we were late in the game with a lead he took on a much more aggressive approach and looked good doing it. So the hope is he will get stronger and take on more next season. He has the quickness, shot and handle needed to step up. Will he see himself in that way? Boogie is a slightly built guy and all I have seen of him is in the films where the best is shown. He appears to have nice shooting form and a decent handle, so there is hope for him. Jordan is a wild card but it is not impossible for him to develop a scoring touch. Tune in next season.

I am expecting a big step up from Alex and the mystery man Joey Baker. But I agree, Alex has a lot of what you want- he just needs to develop more of a "blue-collar" mentality. The kid Jerome from UVa plays with an edge and I don't see much basketball difference between him and Alex- but that edge is huge for Jerome and may be the reason they win tonight. Alex needs to get there - if that is possible. Ellis could play with that chip- reminds me a bit of the UConn guards of the past- slight of build but deadly shooters. Next year's Duke team will again be build around shooters but with a point guard who can run the show. Should be fun to watch - but at least one inside threat will be critical.

[Dukehk]

I am expecting a big step up from Alex and the mystery man Joey Baker. But I agree, Alex has a lot of what you want- he just needs to develop more of a "blue-collar" mentality. The kid Jerome from UVa plays with an edge and I don't see much basketball difference between him and Alex- but that edge is huge for Jerome and may be the reason they win tonight. Alex needs to get there - if that is possible. Ellis could play with that chip- reminds me a bit of the UConn guards of the past- slight of build but deadly shooters. Next year's Duke team will again be build around shooters but with a point guard who can run the show. Should be fun to watch - but at least one inside threat will be critical.

Balance is probably the key to next years team. We will have several guys that can score and several guys that play defence. This year we basically kept relying on two players to the point where it was detrimental to the team.

Everyone will have a chance to shoot their shots. I’m hoping we will be very deep and capable of scoring with multiple guys from all over the court. Vernon Carey is going to be a very good inside threat. No worse than a Wendell Carter that’s for sure! Has some Boozer/Brand type post moves and jump shooting ability.

[Acymetric]

I am expecting a big step up from Alex and the mystery man Joey Baker. But I agree, Alex has a lot of what you want- he just needs to develop more of a "blue-collar" mentality. The kid Jerome from UVa plays with an edge and I don't see much basketball difference between him and Alex- but that edge is huge for Jerome and may be the reason they win tonight. Alex needs to get there - if that is possible. Ellis could play with that chip- reminds me a bit of the UConn guards of the past- slight of build but deadly shooters. Next year's Duke team will again be build around shooters but with a point guard who can run the show. Should be fun to watch - but at least one inside threat will be critical.

Well, Jerome has at least 10, and maybe 15, pounds on Alex which isn't insignificant. O'Connell is a thin dude.

[kAzE]

While our roster hasn't been finalized, I think it's to the point where we can start making enough assumptions to have a decent idea of what we're working with (this is a speculation thread, after all). With that in mind, these are my 2 biggest question marks heading into the next year:

1. Defense

Losing Zion and Cam is a massive blow to our defense. Especially Zion, whose versatility to be able to switch on guards, create turnovers, and protect the rim were all incredibly key to our success on the defensive end this past season. Cam's incredible length and quickness also made him an excellent switchy defender. Who is going to step up on the perimeter to shore up those losses? Wendell Moore looks like a potential difference maker on defense, so hopefully he can replace Cam's production on that end.

On the other hand, Zion is irreplaceable. There's no one like him on next year's roster, or on the planet for that matter. We will need to see continued progress from Javin DeLaurier, especially being able to defend without fouling. He will need to get stronger, and improve his body control. For Marques, continued progression (and hopefully pristine health) will be key for his role next season. How well can Vernon Carey and Matthew Hurt (if we get him) defend? Carey has the heart, but is he quick enough to switch every screen? Hurt is an offensive machine, but can he hold up on defense with his slight frame?

We will almost certainly not be as good defensively, just by virtue of losing Zion, but can we still hold our own on that end?

2. Playmaking

Last year's team had an embarrassment of riches in this department. Tre, RJ, Zion, and Cam were all able to create shots for themselves or teammates. Of those 4, Only Tre is likely to return, and there's not much else in the way of ball handling and shot creating on this roster. Alex seems like the logical choice as the starting 2 guard next year, but hasn't been much more than a spot up shooter to this point in his career offensively. Will he develop his ball handling? Jordan Goldwire is nominally referred to as a point guard, but can he take a big step up in his offensive contributions? Boogie Ellis was a scoring machine in high school, but will he be ready to do the same as a freshman at the next level? Will we be able to add another playmaker either through transfer or a late recruit (RJ Hampton maybe)?

With Tre being such an important offensive player next year, I worry about his ability to continue his role as the primary on-ball defender. That would be asking a lot of him, from an energy standpoint, to be the primary ball hawk on defense AND the primary playmaker on offense. Fatigue would be a serious concern. Can someone else step up and share the load?

[907bluedevils]

I would be pleasantly surprised to see Bolden on the team next year. I don't think backup 15-20 mins a game is going to help his pro prospects more than what he has shown this year.

[Kedsy]

The kid Jerome from UVa plays with an edge and I don't see much basketball difference between him and Alex-

What does this even mean? Ty Jerome is UVa's point guard. He has the ball in his hands all the time, has a very good handle and passes well, and plays great defense. Alex is a catch-and-shoot specialist who's not great with the ball and doesn't really contribute on D. What would constitute a big "basketball difference" in your mind?

[Rich]

What would constitute a big "basketball difference" in your mind?

9309

[mo.st.dukie]

I would be pleasantly surprised to see Bolden on the team next year. I don't think backup 15-20 mins a game is going to help his pro prospects more than what he has shown this year.

I think he would be a starter and we'd bring Hurt off the bench. I don't know about his pro prospects. Either way, no matter what he chooses to do for next season, I think his pro career path will be something like Lance Thomas. He'll be spending a lot of time in the G-League and will need to work extremely hard to get in even better shape and expand his game. So it's up to him, do the G-League life next year, which is not glamorous at all, or stay at Duke where basketball players are rock stars.

[GoDuke2015]

I think he would be a starter and we'd bring Hurt off the bench. I don't know about his pro prospects. Either way, no matter what he chooses to do for next season, I think his pro career path will be something like Lance Thomas. He'll be spending a lot of time in the G-League and will need to work extremely hard to get in even better shape and expand his game. So it's up to him, do the G-League life next year, which is not glamorous at all, or stay at Duke where basketball players are rock stars.


Hurt doesn't decide for a few more weeks, right? If he comes to Duke, I think he starts.

[CDu]

I think he would be a starter and we'd bring Hurt off the bench. I don't know about his pro prospects. Either way, no matter what he chooses to do for next season, I think his pro career path will be something like Lance Thomas. He'll be spending a lot of time in the G-League and will need to work extremely hard to get in even better shape and expand his game. So it's up to him, do the G-League life next year, which is not glamorous at all, or stay at Duke where basketball players are rock stars.

I would be VERY surprised if Bolden and Carey were both starters at Duke next year. That's too many less mobile guys on the floor at once, in a game that is becoming increasingly perimeter-oriented. Unless we commit to a zone full-time, it's not a tenable defensive pairing in my opinion.

I would expect the starting PF to be Hurt (if he chooses us) or DeLaurier (if Hurt goes elsewhere).

[bullettoothtony]

If Hurt comes to Duke, he'll start. No way he comes off the bench.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think he would be a starter and we'd bring Hurt off the bench. I don't know about his pro prospects. Either way, no matter what he chooses to do for next season, I think his pro career path will be something like Lance Thomas. He'll be spending a lot of time in the G-League and will need to work extremely hard to get in even better shape and expand his game. So it's up to him, do the G-League life next year, which is not glamorous at all, or stay at Duke where basketball players are rock stars.

And subsequently don't get paid. But the coaches, admin, NCAA, and everyone else does.

Hurt may spend him in the G-League, but he'll be more important to next year's team than Bolden. That's nothing against Bolden, but we already have Carey, and there isn't much offensively that Carey can't do and Bolden can do.

[jimsumner]

Hurt might well be a candidate to start at the 3, with Carey and Bolden or DeLaurier starting inside. That would move Moore to the 2. It also might lead to a healthy helping of zone.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Hurt might well be a candidate to start at the 3, with Carey and Bolden or DeLaurier starting inside. That would move Moore to the 2. It also might lead to a healthy helping of zone.

That is a really, really, slow line-up. It'll be like Duke vs Vermont in 2013: guards driving by us all day. Bolden is really long and DeLaurier is a solid shot blocker, but neither of them bring incredible help defense. I really hope we don't have Hurt at the 3 as we'll get significantly exposed on defense.

[camion]

9309

One of my basketball heroes. Actually, both would qualify.

[CDu]

Hurt might well be a candidate to start at the 3, with Carey and Bolden or DeLaurier starting inside. That would move Moore to the 2. It also might lead to a healthy helping of zone.

I don't care for that idea at all. That is a sloooooooooooow lineup. We've typically gone smaller and quicker rather than taller and less mobile. I would envision DeLaurier subbing in for either big, playing C when he's in with Hurt and PF when playing with Carey.

[jimsumner]

I don't care for that idea at all. That is a sloooooooooooow lineup. We've typically gone smaller and quicker rather than taller and less mobile. I would envision DeLaurier subbing in for either big, playing C when he's in with Hurt and PF when playing with Carey.

Hurt has a chance to be an elite scorer. He could easily average 15-17 ppg as a freshman.

But he's not much of a mixer-upper-inside. He is a prototype stretch-4 on offense but his ability to guard ACC 4s is at least as open-ended as his ability to guard ACC 3s. The only way Duke gets significant contributions from all of Hurt, Carey, Bolden and DeLaurier is to play Hurt at the 3.

Which likely would negatively impact White and/or Baker's PT.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Hurt has a chance to be an elite scorer. He could easily average 15-17 ppg as a freshman.

But he's not much of a mixer-upper-inside. He is a prototype stretch-4 on offense but his ability to guard ACC 4s is at least as open-ended as his ability to guard ACC 3s. The only way Duke gets significant contributions from all of Hurt, Carey, Bolden and DeLaurier is to play Hurt at the 3.

Which likely would negatively impact White and/or Baker's PT.

Why not have Moore guard the opposing 4s? If Moore is anything like Winslow, he should be able to successfully guard the 4.

[CDu]

Hurt has a chance to be an elite scorer. He could easily average 15-17 ppg as a freshman.

But he's not much of a mixer-upper-inside. He is a prototype stretch-4 on offense but his ability to guard ACC 4s is at least as open-ended as his ability to guard ACC 3s. The only way Duke gets significant contributions from all of Hurt, Carey, Bolden and DeLaurier is to play Hurt at the 3.

And I don't think we'll get significant contributions from all four of those guys (just 3, or 2 with 2 playing ~12-15 mpg type roles). I think Hurt will be a bit shaky defensively at the 4, but very weak defensively at the 3. And I don't think either of Carey or Bolden will be comfortable at the 4.

I expect Hurt to start wherever he goes, and to start at the 4 spot wherever he goes. And I suspect he'll score a bunch, just like you've suggested as well. But he's not a 3.

Coach K has rarely gone big. He seems to prefer to make sure we have enough mobility to defend, rather than size. With the exception of 2010, when we literally only had 3 guys on the roster that played guard/wing, he's stuck with his SF being a smaller, quicker guy whenever possible.

Moore is like the protypical coach K SF. I'd expect him to play there unless Ellis and O'Connell can't handle starting at SG. And if they can't, I'd expect White or Baker to start at SF and Moore to play SG.

[Saratoga2]

And I don't think we'll get significant contributions from all four of those guys (just 3, or 2 with 2 playing ~12-15 mpg type roles). I think Hurt will be a bit shaky defensively at the 4, but very weak defensively at the 3. And I don't think either of Carey or Bolden will be comfortable at the 4.

I expect Hurt to start wherever he goes, and to start at the 4 spot wherever he goes. And I suspect he'll score a bunch, just like you've suggested as well. But he's not a 3.

Coach K has rarely gone big. He seems to prefer to make sure we have enough mobility to defend, rather than size. With the exception of 2010, when we literally only had 3 guys on the roster that played guard/wing, he's stuck with his SF being a smaller, quicker guy whenever possible.

Moore is like the protypical coach K SF. I'd expect him to play there unless Ellis and O'Connell can't handle starting at SG. And if they can't, I'd expect White or Baker to start at SF and Moore to play SG.

Carey should and will start but as a really big man may not play over 25 mpg. My observations of Bolden and DeLaurier is that Javin is much more mobile and has made the most improvement. If we get Hurt and he plays the 4, we may only have 25 minutes for Bolden and DeLaurier to share and that doesn't allow much for Jack in the 4 role.It may come down to needing a really big player or a mobile player in particular games. Moore is probably going to be the starting 3 and perhaps Jack and/or Joey will sub in for him. Moore may be a 30 mpg guy. The SG is up in the air, with Alex and Boogie possibly sharing time and Tre would fill the majority of the PG duties, with some of Jordan to spell him.

All depends on Tre staying and Hurt coming.

[KandG]

Carey should and will start but as a really big man may not play over 25 mpg. My observations of Bolden and DeLaurier is that Javin is much more mobile and has made the most improvement. If we get Hurt and he plays the 4, we may only have 25 minutes for Bolden and DeLaurier to share and that doesn't allow much for Jack in the 4 role.



Is Jack really a 4 though? I know he's obviously played the position for us, but even K has said he's more like a big small forward and that his ability to guard bigs or strong power forwards is limited. I think it's more likely that Javin is our small ball center at the end of games if Carey takes a while to get it on D, Hurt plays the 4, and Jack or Joey (or one of the more mobile freshmen) plays at small forward depending on what K is looking for.

[Acymetric]

Is Jack really a 4 though? I know he's obviously played the position for us, but even K has said he's more like a big small forward and that his ability to guard bigs or strong power forwards is limited. I think it's more likely that Javin is our small ball center at the end of games if Carey takes a while to get it on D, Hurt plays the 4, and Jack or Joey (or one of the more mobile freshmen) plays at small forward depending on what K is looking for.

Jack is more of a 4 than Hurt. Javin is more of a 4 than either (albeit a completely inside-oriented 4).

[mo.st.dukie]

I would be VERY surprised if Bolden and Carey were both starters at Duke next year. That's too many less mobile guys on the floor at once, in a game that is becoming increasingly perimeter-oriented. Unless we commit to a zone full-time, it's not a tenable defensive pairing in my opinion.

I would expect the starting PF to be Hurt (if he chooses us) or DeLaurier (if Hurt goes elsewhere).

It might be although K was very comfortable continuing to switch at all positions on defense even when Bolden was in the game. Marques showed a lot of improvement in his foot speed this year, particularly on defense. Of course, we won't know how quick and mobile Carey is until we see him play but by most scouting reports he has quick feet. We also don't know how good of a defender Hurt will be. DeLaurier could very well be a starter, much like this year where he and Bolden kind of switched off who was starting and who played the most, sometimes based on matchups. I would not be surprised to see any of them start, we should have a really good 4 man rotation in the post if Hurt commits.

[mo.st.dukie]

And subsequently don't get paid. But the coaches, admin, NCAA, and everyone else does.

Hurt may spend him in the G-League, but he'll be more important to next year's team than Bolden. That's nothing against Bolden, but we already have Carey, and there isn't much offensively that Carey can't do and Bolden can do.

I meant that Bolden would spend a lot of time in the G-League, with a salary of 50k which is a good living for a young 20-something. But let's be real, Duke basketball and Duke basketball players have a much more glamorous experience than in the G-League. I agree that Carey brings the things Bolden brings and more but Marques does bring senior experience and there's never anything wrong with having 2 big centers on the team, it comes in handy. I have no idea if Hurt will be more important, he'll certainly add a good skill set to the team and help with scoring. He can exist on the same team as Bolden, Carey, and DeLaurier.

[GoDuke2015]

I meant that Bolden would spend a lot of time in the G-League, with a salary of 50k which is a good living for a young 20-something. But let's be real, Duke basketball and Duke basketball players have a much more glamorous experience than in the G-League. I agree that Carey brings the things Bolden brings and more but Marques does bring senior experience and there's never anything wrong with having 2 big centers on the team, it comes in handy. I have no idea if Hurt will be more important, he'll certainly add a good skill set to the team and help with scoring. He can exist on the same team as Bolden, Carey, and DeLaurier.


NBA G-League salary is only $35,000. I don't see Bolden leaving for the G-League.

https://gleague.nba.com/news/nba-g-league-announces-player-salaries-2018-2019-season/

[scottdude8]

There's been a ton of speculation about Bolden grad-transferring, Bolden leaving to go to the G-league, etc., but I've yet to see a single source for any of it. We have a lot of people getting dangerously close to the rumor-mongering line and I think we all have to be more vigilant about that. Again, to be clear, there is zero reporting indicating that we won't have Bolden next year. I am not saying that something might not happen, as I don't have any inside information on that front. But talking about him not being here isn't accomplishing anything when there's no evidence at the moment that that is a reasonable possibility.

I am personally looking forward to the options presented to us by having a frontcourt made up of two stud freshmen in Carey and Hurt (considering all the tea leaves are pointing towards him coming, unlike the opposite scenario with Bolden) with two experienced seniors coming off the bench, both of whom provide something a little different than either of the freshmen. That would give K the ability to experiment with a ton of different combos up front depending on the matchup, and would be a great situation to be in (especially considering, as has been mentioned, freshmen bigs playing more than 25 minutes per game is the exception, not the rule).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

NBA G-League salary is only $35,000. I don't see Bolden leaving for the G-League.

https://gleague.nba.com/news/nba-g-league-announces-player-salaries-2018-2019-season/

35 thou? But wait, I thought these players were capable of generating millions.......:cool:

[ElliottHoo]

NBA G-League salary is only $35,000. I don't see Bolden leaving for the G-League.

https://gleague.nba.com/news/nba-g-league-announces-player-salaries-2018-2019-season/

Unless he's been in touch with teams re: Two-way contracts. If his NBA time gets maxed out, its could be as much as ~$200k. But, yeah, it's a lot less if he doesn't get the NBA time. It seems unlikely he'd bail with that as his upside.

Especially if you guys get Hurt, I could see him exploring a transfer if he's still holding out hope for a breakthrough season that gets him drafted (as Marial Shayok got surprisingly close to pulling off), but flat-out leaving early to play for, say, the Greensboro Swarm in front of like 200 people (instead of playing in Cameron) seems like a really bad trade for income possibly no higher than his scholarship. Not saying that he's actually interested in transferring, just that it'd make more sense than going to the G-league.

[GoDuke2015]

There's been a ton of speculation about Bolden grad-transferring, Bolden leaving to go to the G-league, etc., but I've yet to see a single source for any of it. We have a lot of people getting dangerously close to the rumor-mongering line and I think we all have to be more vigilant about that. Again, to be clear, there is zero reporting indicating that we won't have Bolden next year. I am not saying that something might not happen, as I don't have any inside information on that front. But talking about him not being here isn't accomplishing anything when there's no evidence at the moment that that is a reasonable possibility.

I am personally looking forward to the options presented to us by having a frontcourt made up of two stud freshmen in Carey and Hurt (considering all the tea leaves are pointing towards him coming, unlike the opposite scenario with Bolden) with two experienced seniors coming off the bench, both of whom provide something a little different than either of the freshmen. That would give K the ability to experiment with a ton of different combos up front depending on the matchup, and would be a great situation to be in (especially considering, as has been mentioned, freshmen bigs playing more than 25 minutes per game is the exception, not the rule).


Per Adam Rowe (free site): Center Marques Bolden, who would be a senior next year, is expected to put his name in to the NBA Draft and go through the pre-draft process before making an ultimate decision on whether he will return by the NCAA-enforced deadline set for May 29th.

[Indoor66]

Per Adam Rowe (free site): Center Marques Bolden, who would be a senior next year, is expected to put his name in to the NBA Draft and go through the pre-draft process before making an ultimate decision on whether he will return by the NCAA-enforced deadline set for May 29th.

A wise course for Mr. Bolden.

[scottdude8]

Per Adam Rowe (free site): Center Marques Bolden, who would be a senior next year, is expected to put his name in to the NBA Draft and go through the pre-draft process before making an ultimate decision on whether he will return by the NCAA-enforced deadline set for May 29th.

Well crap, I certainly jinxed that didn’t I!

EDIT: can you please provide a link? I’m not seeing any news of that sort on Google...

[GoDuke2015]

Well crap, I certainly jinxed that didn’t I!

EDIT: can you please provide a link? I’m not seeing any news of that sort on Google...


Sure:

https://247sports.com/college/duke/Article/tre-jones-nba-draft-decision-duke-blue-devils--131005827/


Center Marques Bolden, who would be a senior next year, is expected to put his name in to the NBA Draft and go through the pre-draft process before making an ultimate decision on whether he will return by the NCAA-enforced deadline set for May 29th.

[scottdude8]

Hmm... odd he just says “is expected” and doesn’t say a source is telling him this. Makes me wonder whether that’s just his own speculation. Nevertheless, I asked for a source and you provided one. Sporks!

[CDu]

Hmm... odd he just says “is expected” and doesn’t say a source is telling him this. Makes me wonder whether that’s just his own speculation. Nevertheless, I asked for a source and you provided one. Sporks!

As a junior, he has no reason not to test the waters.

[Hartford Dukie]

Hurt doesn't decide for a few more weeks, right? If he comes to Duke, I think he starts.

Hurt announces his decision a week from Friday, 4/19.

[dukelifer]

What does this even mean? Ty Jerome is UVa's point guard. He has the ball in his hands all the time, has a very good handle and passes well, and plays great defense. Alex is a catch-and-shoot specialist who's not great with the ball and doesn't really contribute on D. What would constitute a big "basketball difference" in your mind?

I see more in his game than he has been able to show consistently- due to playing time. Two examples- his high scoring game at Syracuse this year and his high rebound game against Va Tech. He is bouncy and has the potential to create better off the dribble. Jerome has had a much better career- but I am not convinced that AOC has hit his peak and will be defined as a catch and shoot specialist.

[CDu]

I see more in his game than he has been able to show consistently- due to playing time. Two examples- his high scoring game at Syracuse this year and his high rebound game against Va Tech. He is bouncy and has the potential to create better off the dribble. Jerome has had a much better career- but I am not convinced that AOC has hit his peak and will be defined as a catch and shoot specialist.

O’Connell has some nice skills in his bag, but he appears to be far from Jerome at this point. Jerome is a fantastic ballhandler and distributor, and has shown the ability to create for himself against top competition. O’Connell has had an occasional moment of brilliance -usually against reserves in garbage time - but against better competition he looks shaky with the ball and just acts as a catch-and-shoot guy.

Basically, Jerome seems like a high-b-ball-IQ player on both ends who gets the most out of his more modest physical skills, whereas O’Connell is a better athlete but not nearly as savvy on the court.

[proelitedota]

O’Connell has some nice skills in his bag, but he appears to be far from Jerome at this point. Jerome is a fantastic ballhandler and distributor, and has shown the ability to create for himself against top competition. O’Connell has had an occasional moment of brilliance -usually against reserves in garbage time - but against better competition he looks shaky with the ball and just acts as a catch-and-shoot guy.

Basically, Jerome seems like a high-b-ball-IQ player on both ends who gets the most out of his more modest physical skills, whereas O’Connell is a better athlete but not nearly as savvy on the court.

Jerome was also the 43rd recruit in a deep 2016 class. O'Connel was 87th in a much shallower class.

[jimsumner]

And I don't think we'll get significant contributions from all four of those guys (just 3, or 2 with 2 playing ~12-15 mpg type roles). I think Hurt will be a bit shaky defensively at the 4, but very weak defensively at the 3. And I don't think either of Carey or Bolden will be comfortable at the 4.

I expect Hurt to start wherever he goes, and to start at the 4 spot wherever he goes. And I suspect he'll score a bunch, just like you've suggested as well. But he's not a 3.

Coach K has rarely gone big. He seems to prefer to make sure we have enough mobility to defend, rather than size. With the exception of 2010, when we literally only had 3 guys on the roster that played guard/wing, he's stuck with his SF being a smaller, quicker guy whenever possible.

Moore is like the protypical coach K SF. I'd expect him to play there unless Ellis and O'Connell can't handle starting at SG. And if they can't, I'd expect White or Baker to start at SF and Moore to play SG.

Rarely isn't the same thing as never. You note 2010. But K kept Singler at the 3 in 2011, even on a team with Smith, Curry, Dawkins and Irving (for awhile). Mark Alarie, Mike Dunleavy and Rodney Hood are among the other Duke 3s in the 6-8, 6-9 range.

Like it or not, Duke will play some jumbo lineups with Hurt (assuming he comes), and two of Carey, Bolden and DeLaurier.

Unless Bolden goes to the pros and this problem goes away and people can start talking about great Justin Robinson is going to be.

[NSDukeFan]

Hurt announces his decision a week from Friday, 4/19.

I hope that’s a Good Friday for Duke.

[CDu]

Rarely isn't the same thing as never. You note 2010. But K kept Singler at the 3 in 2011, even on a team with Smith, Curry, Dawkins and Irving (for awhile). Mark Alarie, Mike Dunleavy and Rodney Hood are among the other Duke 3s in the 6-8, 6-9 range.

Like it or not, Duke will play some jumbo lineups with Hurt (assuming he comes), and two of Carey, Bolden and DeLaurier.

Unless Bolden goes to the pros and this problem goes away and people can start talking about great Justin Robinson is going to be.

The difference here is that Singler was a guard/wing in high school who bulked up because we needed him to for two years. Hurt is... not. Singler wasn’t playing out of position. I was referring more to Ryan Kelly seeing occasional minutes at 3 as a frosh. But Singler was about as big as we go barring extreme circumstances.

I will be shocked if we play three true bigs (Hurt is a big, just more of a Ryan Kelly big) together next year. It just doesn’t make sense. Neither Bolden nor DeLaurier have shown enough to force Coach K to play them out of position, let alone to them force a top-5 recruit to play out of position too. And it would force a guy like Moore to play down a position too. And would cut substantially into a senior captain’s (White’s) opportunities because Hurt would be taking the SF minutes.

I think it is much more likely that one is out of the rotation or both play limited minutes than it is for Coach K to play multiple guys out of position and field perhaps the slowest starting five of his career (note: that isn’t meant as a slight to those guys; just that they would be competing with guys smaller and quicker than them due to being out of position).

Somebody is getting squeezed here. If we land Hurt, there just aren’t major minutes to be had for all three of the seniors AND Carey AND White. My guess would be that Coach K will play guys where they can defend, and that means one of the bigs won’t see many minutes (if all three seniors stay).

[jimsumner]

The difference here is that Singler was a guard/wing in high school who bulked up because we needed him to for two years. Hurt is... not. Singler wasn’t playing out of position. I was referring more to Ryan Kelly seeing occasional minutes at 3 as a frosh. But Singler was about as big as we go barring extreme circumstances.

I will be shocked if we play three true bigs (Hurt is a big, just more of a Ryan Kelly big) together next year. It just doesn’t make sense. Neither Bolden nor DeLaurier have shown enough to force Coach K to play them out of position, let alone to them force a top-5 recruit to play out of position too. And it would force a guy like Moore to play down a position too. And would cut substantially into a senior captain’s (White’s) opportunities because Hurt would be taking the SF minutes.

I think it is much more likely that one is out of the rotation or both play limited minutes than it is for Coach K to play multiple guys out of position and field perhaps the slowest starting five of his career (note: that isn’t meant as a slight to those guys; just that they would be competing with guys smaller and quicker than them due to being out of position).

Somebody is getting squeezed here. If we land Hurt, there just aren’t major minutes to be had for all three of the seniors AND Carey AND White. My guess would be that Coach K will play guys where they can defend, and that means one of the bigs won’t see many minutes (if all three seniors stay).

Singler was a much tougher rebounder and interior defender as a freshman than Hurt. Duke never, ever had any intention of playing Singler at guard. Duke could easily have played him at the 4 in 2011 but elected to go big, as they have several times in the past.

But yes, someone is getting squeezed. My best guess is Baker but they can settle that in practice.

[proelitedota]

Does anyone have the stats for how many lbs that freshmen gain between when they're listed out of HS to their first Duke measurements?

From what I recall,

Kingram went from 170 to 190.
Cam went from 205 to 218.
Zion when from 272 to 285.
Rj went from 202 to 208.

I expect Hurt to weigh 225/230 when the Duke roster is updated.


Singler was a much tougher rebounder and interior defender as a freshman than Hurt.

Hurt is actually a very good rebounder going by his HS stats.

[Steven43]

O’Connell has some nice skills in his bag, but he appears to be far from Jerome at this point. Jerome is a fantastic ballhandler and distributor, and has shown the ability to create for himself against top competition. O’Connell has had an occasional moment of brilliance -usually against reserves in garbage time - but against better competition he looks shaky with the ball and just acts as a catch-and-shoot guy.

Basically, Jerome seems like a high-b-ball-IQ player on both ends who gets the most out of his more modest physical skills, whereas O’Connell is a better athlete but not nearly as savvy on the court.
I think this, unfortunately, is an accurate (albeit brief) assessment of O’Connell as compared to Jerome. I still have hope that O’Connell will eventually become more adept at passing, ballhandling, and understanding of what he needs to do in the moment — improvements that I believe are all within his grasp if he works hard enough.

[indy1duke]

The difference here is that Singler was a guard/wing in high school who bulked up because we needed him to for two years. Hurt is... not. Singler wasn’t playing out of position. I was referring more to Ryan Kelly seeing occasional minutes at 3 as a frosh. But Singler was about as big as we go barring extreme circumstances.

I will be shocked if we play three true bigs (Hurt is a big, just more of a Ryan Kelly big) together next year. It just doesn’t make sense. Neither Bolden nor DeLaurier have shown enough to force Coach K to play them out of position, let alone to them force a top-5 recruit to play out of position too. And it would force a guy like Moore to play down a position too. And would cut substantially into a senior captain’s (White’s) opportunities because Hurt would be taking the SF minutes.

I think it is much more likely that one is out of the rotation or both play limited minutes than it is for Coach K to play multiple guys out of position and field perhaps the slowest starting five of his career (note: that isn’t meant as a slight to those guys; just that they would be competing with guys smaller and quicker than them due to being out of position).

Somebody is getting squeezed here. If we land Hurt, there just aren’t major minutes to be had for all three of the seniors AND Carey AND White. My guess would be that Coach K will play guys where they can defend, and that means one of the bigs won’t see many minutes (if all three seniors stay).

While I generally agree that our coach prefers to go small rather than big I am not at all concerned about the prospect of Bolden, DeLaurier, Carey and Hurt not getting playing time because since 2010 we have had multiple injuries every year. What a luxury to actually have depth for our front court. Experienced depth has helped other teams reach the Final Four. Maybe next year it will work in our favor. It is hard to imagine that three of these four will be on the court at the same time.

[CDu]

Singler was a much tougher rebounder and interior defender as a freshman than Hurt. Duke never, ever had any intention of playing Singler at guard. Duke could easily have played him at the 4 in 2011 but elected to go big, as they have several times in the past.

But yes, someone is getting squeezed. My best guess is Baker but they can settle that in practice.

I didn’t say Singler was expected to play guard. I said he had played guard/wing in high school. That he was able to bulk up and play the 4/5 as a frosh and sophomore was nice and needed. But he wasn’t out of position on the wing.

And “Baker” isn’t an answer to the question of which senior will get squeezed out. There are 120 minutes at SF, PF, and C. There aren’t likely to be major minutes for all 5 guys there.

You keep talking about the “several” times Duke has gone big in the past. That isn’t accurate in the Coach K era. He has never started a natural 4/5 at SF. He has three times started a 6’8” guy there (2010-11, 1998, and 1994). But Singler was a wing who had been asked to play up, and Hill and Battier could play any position on the court (Hill on both ends, Battier defensively). That isn’t likely to apply to Hurt, who has played exclusively as a 4/5 in high school.

And again, we aren’t talking about a situation where there is a need. We have options on the perimeter. There appears to be little reason to make our offense and defense worse by playing 2 or 3 guys out of position for most of the game.

[dukelifer]

O’Connell has some nice skills in his bag, but he appears to be far from Jerome at this point. Jerome is a fantastic ballhandler and distributor, and has shown the ability to create for himself against top competition. O’Connell has had an occasional moment of brilliance -usually against reserves in garbage time - but against better competition he looks shaky with the ball and just acts as a catch-and-shoot guy.

Basically, Jerome seems like a high-b-ball-IQ player on both ends who gets the most out of his more modest physical skills, whereas O’Connell is a better athlete but not nearly as savvy on the court.

This is fair - although I think Alex could take a jump up given that athleticism and shooting skill. But this come with hard work. We shall see.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This is fair - although I think Alex could take a jump up given that athleticism and shooting skill. But this come with hard work. We shall see.

Alex, Javin and Jack all have the athleticism to take a step forward......maybe AOC more than any of them.

[CDu]

This is fair - although I think Alex could take a jump up given that athleticism and shooting skill. But this come with hard work. We shall see.

Yeah I wouldn’t put a ceiling on a player. I haven’t seen any evidence that the b-ball IQ is coming. But one never knows when the light switch could flip on. He has some tools. But he has a long way to go to maximize them. Hopefully we see it happen for him. He seems like such a positive presence on the roster, so I would love to see things click for him.

[dukelifer]

Yeah I wouldn’t put a ceiling on a player. I haven’t seen any evidence that the b-ball IQ is coming. But one never knows when the light switch could flip on. He has some tools. But he has a long way to go to maximize them. Hopefully we see it happen for him. He seems like such a positive presence on the roster, so I would love to see things click for him.

My sense is that K has been hoping for the switch to flip. I am still hopeful as I have seen moments from him and not all in garbage time.

[CDu]

My sense is that K has been hoping for the switch to flip. I am still hopeful as I have seen moments from him and not all in garbage time.

I really haven’t seen those moments. He shot well in two games against Syracuse, but purely in a catch-and-shoot role. He has lit up opposing walk-one occasionally. But against major D1 comp, he hasn’t looked able to do more than catch-and-shoot.

[dukelion]

I have a love/hate relationship with these speculation threads as they're a bit of a pointless exercise but enjoyable all the same.......so with Tre now confirmed back here's my two cents.

First, I think Tre becomes the focus of the offense. So much is focused on his lack of 3pt shot but he had a pretty strong mid range game last year that's only going to get stronger. I think K plays a ton of picknroll, plays 3 shooters around a big and just lets Tre make all the decisions.

I'm also amazed year after year how people just assume freshman will outperform rising juniors and seniors. Jack, Javin, AOC and Goldwire are all set to get minutes next year and it wouldn't surprise me if one of them improved to the level of all ACC second/third team. In fact I think it needs to happen for us to make a run next year. I think Bolden, with his Duke degree in hand, hunts out more minutes in the G league.

Predicted starting 5 with main subs in parentheses:

Tre
AOC (Goldwire & Boogie)
Moore (Baker)
Jack (Hurt)
VCJ (Javin)

Not gonna play the minutes game but I know K as always will value D first so if VCJ, Moore or AOC can't handle assignments the other upperclassman will.

I think Hurt is perfect for coming off the bench as instant offense. His D will be a major question but he might be our best shooter next year.

I hope Jack returns to his early season form where he was a monster on the boards and had stints where he blocked everything in his area. To me he should play almost exclusively at the 4 next year.

And I can easily see a late game 5 of Tre, Goldwire, Moore, Jack and Javin that is focused on defense and will just rely on Tre creating when the clock gets late.

Lots of options and machinations available to the coaching staff next year but with Tre back I like our chances......it's gonna be fun.

[CDu]

I have a love/hate relationship with these speculation threads as they're a bit of a pointless exercise but enjoyable all the same...so with Tre now confirmed back here's my two cents.

First, I think Tre becomes the focus of the offense. So much is focused on his lack of 3pt shot but he had a pretty strong mid range game last year that's only going to get stronger. I think K plays a ton of picknroll, plays 3 shooters around a big and just lets Tre make all the decisions.

I'm also amazed year after year how people just assume freshman will outperform rising juniors and seniors. Jack, Javin, AOC and Goldwire are all set to get minutes next year and it wouldn't surprise me if one of them improved to the level of all ACC second/third team. In fact I think it needs to happen for us to make a run next year. I think Bolden, with his Duke degree in hand, hunts out more minutes in the G league.

Predicted starting 5 with main subs in parentheses:

Tre
AOC (Goldwire & Boogie)
Moore (Baker)
Jack (Hurt)
VCJ (Javin)

Not gonna play the minutes game but I know K as always will value D first so if VCJ, Moore or AOC can't handle assignments the other upperclassman will.

I think Hurt is perfect for coming off the bench as instant offense. His D will be a major question but he might be our best shooter next year.

I hope Jack returns to his early season form where he was a monster on the boards and had stints where he blocked everything in his area. To me he should play almost exclusively at the 4 next year.

And I can easily see a late game 5 of Tre, Goldwire, Moore, Jack and Javin that is focused on defense and will just rely on Tre creating when the clock gets late.

Lots of options and machinations available to the coaching staff next year but with Tre back I like our chances...it's gonna be fun.

Yeah, I will be absolutely gobsmacked if Hurt is a reserve for anyone next year. I expect he starts and plays 30+ mpg (health and foul trouble willing) wherever he goes.

There is a reason people are predicting that our top-10 recruits will start as freshmen: with the exception of Giles (who was an injured shell of himself) they HAVE.

[Wander]

But yes, someone is getting squeezed. My best guess is Baker but they can settle that in practice.

Um, what? Baker getting squeezed is basically a certainty in the scenario being discussed. The non-trivial part is that someone else has to go. We're not going to have a 9-man lineup with 3 of the 4 guards and all of DeLaurier, Bolden, White, and the (potentially) three freshman fowards/centers in the main rotation.

[dukelion]

Yeah, I will be absolutely gobsmacked if Hurt is a reserve for anyone next year. I expect he starts and plays 30+ mpg (health and foul trouble willing) wherever he goes.


Really?

He's a bit skinny, not long and not overly athletic. He'll be a beast in a couple of years but I'm seeing Kyle Wiltjer 2.0........which I would be more than happy with.

What am I missing?

[roywhite]

This is fair - although I think Alex could take a jump up given that athleticism and shooting skill. But this come with hard work. We shall see.


Yeah I wouldn’t put a ceiling on a player. I haven’t seen any evidence that the b-ball IQ is coming. But one never knows when the light switch could flip on. He has some tools. But he has a long way to go to maximize them. Hopefully we see it happen for him. He seems like such a positive presence on the roster, so I would love to see things click for him.


My sense is that K has been hoping for the switch to flip. I am still hopeful as I have seen moments from him and not all in garbage time.

Agree and hope Alex makes the most of what can be a great opportunity for him.

I'm somewhat reminded of Kevin Strickland from K's first decade. Didn't get a lot of playing time as a freshman or sophomore and seemed lost at times. But he was a good shooter and a pretty good athlete, developed into a good player his junior and senior seasons. Here are his stats:

http://www.dukeupdate.com/Alumni/kevin_strickland.htm

[CDu]

Really?

He's a bit skinny, not long and not overly athletic. He'll be a beast in a couple of years but I'm seeing Kyle Wiltjer 2.0...which I would be more than happy with.

What am I missing?

He is a top-5 recruit. He got that ranking because he is an incredibly skilled scorer from all over the floor. And you are expecting Jack White (no offense to him intended) over him? We have had MANY top-10 recruits over the last decade. With just one exception, they have all started. The exception? A very impaired Harry Giles.

Look, I get the idea that veterans have value. But you are going overboard in the opposite direction in suggesting a career reserve role player will start over a top-5 recruit. That just simply hasn’t happened in the Coach K era.

[NSDukeFan]

My current speculation is “could Bolden take another step forward, continue his impressive block rate, continue to improve his rebounding, continue to improve his impressive defensive footwork for his size, develop a little more touch and confidence on his post moves to be a very solid, more consistent contributor that forces himself to get consistent minutes next year?”
I certainly hope so. I love seeing seniors and their improvements over four years.

[dukelion]

He is a top-5 recruit. He got that ranking because he is an incredibly skilled scorer from all over the floor. And you are expecting Jack White (no offense to him intended) over him? We have had MANY top-10 recruits over the last decade. With just one exception, they have all started. The exception? A very impaired Harry Giles.

Look, I get the idea that veterans have value. But you are going overboard in the opposite direction in suggesting a career reserve role player will start over a top-5 recruit. That just simply hasn’t happened in the Coach K era.

Never seen him ranked in the top 5 on any site but I'm not gonna split hairs.

I have seen VCJ in the top 5 and I can't imagine him and Hurt playing the bulk of our front court mins as there D is unlikely to meet K's standards.

[CameronCrazy'11]

Never seen him ranked in the top 5 on any site but I'm not gonna split hairs.

I have seen VCJ in the top 5 and I can't imagine him and Hurt playing the bulk of our front court mins as there D is unlikely to meet K's standards.

Great offense paired with substandard D has been the rule since 2012 or so.

[Kedsy]

Um, what? Baker getting squeezed is basically a certainty in the scenario being discussed. The non-trivial part is that someone else has to go. We're not going to have a 9-man lineup with 3 of the 4 guards and all of DeLaurier, Bolden, White, and the (potentially) three freshman fowards/centers in the main rotation.

He might not, of course, but Baker could beat out Ellis, O'Connell, or even White for minutes. We haven't really seen what he can do yet. I don't think anything is a certainty at all in this regard. People seem to forget that Ellis is a #35 to #45 recruit (basically the same as Baker but without the year of Duke practice), and those types don't usually play big minutes as freshmen in crowded Duke rotations.


Never seen him ranked in the top 5 on any site but I'm not gonna split hairs.

He's #6 in the Summer RSCI, so close enough to top 5.

[Kedsy]

Great offense paired with substandard D has been the rule since 2012 or so.

Well, except for 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2019 (in other words, a full half of the seasons in your range).

[dukelifer]

Really?

He's a bit skinny, not long and not overly athletic. He'll be a beast in a couple of years but I'm seeing Kyle Wiltjer 2.0....which I would be more than happy with.

What am I missing?

Kid is amazingly skilled. I am not sure how he will be on the defensive end but he can score the ball from multiple spots on the floor and is an excellent FT shooter. He will be a very good player as a Freshman.

[CameronCrazy'11]

Well, except for 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2019 (in other words, a full half of the seasons in your range).

2013 was not a great defensive team (26th in Kenpom). 2015 was pretty bad defensively until March, as was 2018 until the zone. In contrast, all the teams in that range were top 10 offenses. My point though was that K has been more than willing to put freshman on the court who are amazing offensive talents but play poor defense.

[Hartford Dukie]

He is a top-5 recruit. He got that ranking because he is an incredibly skilled scorer from all over the floor. And you are expecting Jack White (no offense to him intended) over him? We have had MANY top-10 recruits over the last decade. With just one exception, they have all started. The exception? A very impaired Harry Giles.

Look, I get the idea that veterans have value. But you are going overboard in the opposite direction in suggesting a career reserve role player will start over a top-5 recruit. That just simply hasn’t happened in the Coach K era.

Put me with CDu and Dukelifer. K has made Hurt his top priority - numerous trips to Minnesota, including all the staff on occasion. Would be shocked if he doesn't start.

[dukelion]

2013 was not a great defensive team (26th in Kenpom). 2015 was pretty bad defensively until March, as was 2018 until the zone. In contrast, all the teams in that range were top 10 offenses. My point though was that K has been more than willing to put freshman on the court who are amazing offensive talents but play poor defense.

Except when he has legit upper classmen options which he didn't in most of those years. In 2015 K put Okafor on the bench multiple times down the stretch in favor of Jefferson, including the national championship game. I suspect he may have some options with Javin and Jack if the freshmen are too much of a defensive liability.

[lotusland]

And I don't think we'll get significant contributions from all four of those guys (just 3, or 2 with 2 playing ~12-15 mpg type roles). I think Hurt will be a bit shaky defensively at the 4, but very weak defensively at the 3. And I don't think either of Carey or Bolden will be comfortable at the 4.

I expect Hurt to start wherever he goes, and to start at the 4 spot wherever he goes. And I suspect he'll score a bunch, just like you've suggested as well. But he's not a 3.

Coach K has rarely gone big. He seems to prefer to make sure we have enough mobility to defend, rather than size. With the exception of 2010, when we literally only had 3 guys on the roster that played guard/wing, he's stuck with his SF being a smaller, quicker guy whenever possible.

Moore is like the protypical coach K SF. I'd expect him to play there unless Ellis and O'Connell can't handle starting at SG. And if they can't, I'd expect White or Baker to start at SF and Moore to play SG.

The other exception was just last year with Carter, Bags and Jav/Bolden.

[lotusland]

I meant that Bolden would spend a lot of time in the G-League, with a salary of 50k which is a good living for a young 20-something. But let's be real, Duke basketball and Duke basketball players have a much more glamorous experience than in the G-League. I agree that Carey brings the things Bolden brings and more but Marques does bring senior experience and there's never anything wrong with having 2 big centers on the team, it comes in handy. I have no idea if Hurt will be more important, he'll certainly add a good skill set to the team and help with scoring. He can exist on the same team as Bolden, Carey, and DeLaurier.

I don’t expect Carey to bring Bolden’s shot blocking or ability to switch on defense.

[CDu]

The other exception was just last year with Carter, Bags and Jav/Bolden.

But that trio very rarely shared the floor together. Bolden and DeLaurier mainly just subbed in for Carter and Bagley. Allen, Trent, Duval, O’Connell, Goldwire, and White combined to average about 118 minutes per game. Roughly all of the minutes at PG, SG, and SF.

We almost always had two bigs on the floor in the 2018 season, but VERY rarely had more than 2.

[lotusland]

But that trio very rarely shared the floor together. Bolden and DeLaurier mainly just subbed in for Carter and Bagley. Allen, Trent, Duval, O’Connell, Goldwire, and White combined to average about 118 minutes per game. Roughly all of the minutes at PG, SG, and SF.

We almost always had two bigs on the floor in the 2018 season, but VERY rarely had more than 2.

To me Singler was a big in the same way Tatum, Ingram, and Justice were bigs. They can all play 3 or 4 and at times they all played the 3. I don’t know if Hurt is more like Ingram or Ryan Kelly so I won't comment on his ability to guard the 3 spot.

[simplyluvin]

My current speculation is “could Bolden take another step forward, continue his impressive block rate, continue to improve his rebounding, continue to improve his impressive defensive footwork for his size, develop a little more touch and confidence on his post moves to be a very solid, more consistent contributor that forces himself to get consistent minutes next year?”
I certainly hope so. I love seeing seniors and their improvements over four years.

Not a complete analogue here, but I also am hopeful for a big jump forward for Ques somewhat like MP2 did during his senior year. Mason worked himself into a first round pick with a really solid senior year. Agree that footwork and some finesse on the hook are keys for Ques.

[lotusland]

Not a complete analogue here, but I also am hopeful for a big jump forward for Ques somewhat like MP2 did during his senior year. Mason worked himself into a first round pick with a really solid senior year. Agree that footwork and some finesse on the hook are keys for Ques.

And better rebounding. He made a lot of progress this year but he got a hand or two on the rebound but let it get away a bunch. We’re not going to have Zion padding the rebounding next year. We’ve got to get more rebounds from the center position.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

To me Singler was a big in the same way Tatum, Ingram, and Justice were bigs. They can all play 3 or 4 and at times they all played the 3. I don’t know if Hurt is more like Ingram or Ryan Kelly so I won't comment on his ability to guard the 3 spot.

Hurt is much more like Kelly....maybe a more apt analogy is an athletic Danny Ferry type. He will be all time hatable if he comes to Duke.......

[Kedsy]

2013 was not a great defensive team (26th in Kenpom). 2015 was pretty bad defensively until March, as was 2018 until the zone. In contrast, all the teams in that range were top 10 offenses. My point though was that K has been more than willing to put freshman on the court who are amazing offensive talents but play poor defense.

If you look at the 2013 team's defense when Ryan Kelly was part of the rotation, the defense was outstanding. We fell apart defensively a bit while Kelly was injured. That said, #26 isn't "substandard," and however you splice it, neither was 2015's #11, 2018's #9, or 2019's #6. And even if you discount 2013, since we've been a top 11 defense in three of the last five seasons, it's not accurate to say "substandard D has been the rule since 2012 or so."

[kAzE]

https://es.pn/2UEdMN3

It’s definitely way too early. But Marquette #2?? Those are some high expectations for team Wojo. Very interesting.

[Dukehk]

https://es.pn/2UEdMN3

It’s definitely way too early. But Marquette #2?? Those are some high expectations for team Wojo. Very interesting.

Not that I’m complaining but we are ranked pretty low for a team that is returning 2 starters and have a whole host of upperclassmen leadership whilst adding a top 5 recruiting class.

Although it does remain to be seen how good the freshmen will or will not be. Especially on defence. Also if we are able to get Matthew Hurt. Nonetheless, if ky and marquette are that high, there is really no way we should be below them or even nova.

[Acymetric]

I didn’t say Singler was expected to play guard. I said he had played guard/wing in high school. That he was able to bulk up and play the 4/5 as a frosh and sophomore was nice and needed. But he wasn’t out of position on the wing.

And “Baker” isn’t an answer to the question of which senior will get squeezed out. There are 120 minutes at SF, PF, and C. There aren’t likely to be major minutes for all 5 guys there.

You keep talking about the “several” times Duke has gone big in the past. That isn’t accurate in the Coach K era. He has never started a natural 4/5 at SF. He has three times started a 6’8” guy there (2010-11, 1998, and 1994). But Singler was a wing who had been asked to play up, and Hill and Battier could play any position on the court (Hill on both ends, Battier defensively). That isn’t likely to apply to Hurt, who has played exclusively as a 4/5 in high school.

And again, we aren’t talking about a situation where there is a need. We have options on the perimeter. There appears to be little reason to make our offense and defense worse by playing 2 or 3 guys out of position for most of the game.


To me Singler was a big in the same way Tatum, Ingram, and Justice were bigs. They can all play 3 or 4 and at times they all played the 3. I don’t know if Hurt is more like Ingram or Ryan Kelly so I won't comment on his ability to guard the 3 spot.

I think there is a difference here between playing "big" and playing "long" which lotusland captures well. K has somewhat regularly played "long" at the 3 but not necessarily "big" (our 3 is generally expected to be a shooter and potentially secondary/tertiary ball handler capable of at least occasionally running the offense).

[richardjackson199]

Not that I’m complaining but we are ranked pretty low for a team that is returning 2 starters and have a whole host of upperclassmen leadership whilst adding a top 5 recruiting class.

Although it does remain to be seen how good the freshmen will or will not be. Especially on defence. Also if we are able to get Matthew Hurt. Nonetheless, if ky and marquette are that high, there is really no way we should be below them or even nova.

It's because we're alarmingly unathletic. ;)

[NSDukeFan]

It's because we're alarmingly unathletic. ;)

I believe most Duke teams will be alarmingly unathletic compared to this year’s team.

[proelitedota]

Vernon Carey looks to be the best shooting center we've had since Kelly. His stroke is looking far ahead of Anthony Edwards in the following video.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpcRIKkrLUc

[dukelifer]

Vernon Carey looks to be the best shooting center we've had since Kelly. His stroke is looking far ahead of Anthony Edwards in the following video.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpcRIKkrLUc

Freshman Kelly or Senior Kelly? The kid is supposed to be skilled but I expect all the Freshman this year to be players in progress. We have been a bit spoiled lately.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Freshman Kelly or Senior Kelly? The kid is supposed to be skilled but I expect all the Freshman this year to be players in progress. We have been a bit spoiled lately.

I expect all recruits - 3 to 5 star - to be like Zion. If they aren’t, they’re overrated.

[Saratoga2]

Vernon Carey looks to be the best shooting center we've had since Kelly. His stroke is looking far ahead of Anthony Edwards in the following video.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpcRIKkrLUc

When looking at the workout, it looked like Edwards and Carey were similar in size but on rivals.com Carey is listed at 6'10" wile Edwards is listed at 6'4". Am I counting my cinder blocks correctly?

[FerryFor50]

Freshman Kelly or Senior Kelly? The kid is supposed to be skilled but I expect all the Freshman this year to be players in progress. We have been a bit spoiled lately.

Hopefully he'll be better than redshirt Kelly.

But Kelly wasn't a center; he was a stretch 4.

[Acymetric]

Hopefully he'll be better than redshirt Kelly.

But Kelly wasn't a center; he was a stretch 4.

Kelly didn't redshirt...