The anti-One-And-Done Final Four

[bludevil_33]

This stat (https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1112512805406535680) is shocking:


The highest scoring freshman in the Final Four field is Michigan State's Aaron Henry, who averages 5.9 PPG. Only 14.3% of the Spartans' scoring comes from freshmen, which is the highest of the Final Four teams. Other 3: Texas Tech (8.1%), Virginia (7.9%), Auburn (0.6%).

[accfanfrom1970]

Wow. Very interesting. Still don’t think I’ll watch much. I long for the days of games in the 80’s. I imagine UVa v. Texas Tech could end up in the 40’s.

[bludevil_33]

Personally, I'm rooting big time for Virginia to win now. Out of the 4 teams left, they're the one that has been the most consistently good and would represent the most qualified national champion.

The rest of them are products of getting hot at the right time, and those types of champions just never feel the same to me.

[Wahoo2000]

Personally, I'm rooting big time for Virginia to win now. Out of the 4 teams left, they're the one that has been the most consistently good and would represent the most qualified national champion.

The rest of them are products of getting hot at the right time, and those types of champions just never feel the same to me.

I thank you for your support, but I think MSU has been really good overall this year. In fact, take away one bad week at the beginning of Feb and their resume is as good as anybody's, esp if you factor in that they won the B1G regular season and tournament, and knocked off the pretty much consensus best team (Duke). They'd be a worthy champ for sure.

[bludevil_33]

I thank you for your support, but I think MSU has been really good overall this year. In fact, take away one bad week at the beginning of Feb and their resume is as good as anybody's, esp if you factor in that they won the B1G regular season and tournament, and knocked off the pretty much consensus best team (Duke). They'd be a worthy champ for sure.

I was in the camp before Selection Sunday that MSU shouldn't get a 2 seed because they had a bunch of pretty bad losses. Their confernce tourney is what sealed the deal for them.

I don't think their season is comparable overall to Virginia's. You guys had zero bad losses. Zero. Gonzaga is the only other team you can say that of.

[wavedukefan70s]

Go virginia!

[johnb]

Personally, I'm rooting big time for Virginia to win now. Out of the 4 teams left, they're the one that has been the most consistently good and would represent the most qualified national champion.
.

Most qualified champion?

That’s never how I root. What a strange concept!

My rooting is more complicated.

1. First, Duke.

2. Then, what team’s win would be good for Duke? This year, Virginia—though that’s only a modest bump. And it’s controversial, since such a view could lead me to root for Carolina. See 3 and 4.

3. Then, what team’s win would be bad for Duke? This year’s FF, nobody—In our multi-decade effort to be the greatest program of all time, we need KY, KS, and NC to lose (and UCLA to maintain chaotic mediocrity). This is a frustrating quest since these teams win a lot, but at least none of the other contenders can add a FF this year.

4, Then, what teams and coaches lie, cheat, or seem like jerks? This one is tricky. Bruce Pearl, Kelvin Sampson, Roy Williams, Calipari... the list of cheating/lying/successful coaches is fairly long. At the same time, I do believe in 2nd chances and don’t actually know these guys, but it becomes more clear when 4 combines with 3 (UNC, KY).

5. Then, what team’s supporters are more (or less) similar to me in regards to politics?

6. Then, what team’s win would be good for friends and loved ones? This year, for me, it’s clearly Texas Tech. I have multiple cousins who are Tech season ticket holders to football and basketball, and an NC would be a once in a lifetime experience. It would be especially sweet since Tech is generally an afterthought in Texas sports, and they could therefore gloat in the direction of their friends/family who went to Texas, A&M, etc, as well as towards their insufferably smug Duke cousin.

Mix and bake.

So this year, for me, it’s Tech. Guns up!!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Personally, I'm rooting big time for Virginia to win now. Out of the 4 teams left, they're the one that has been the most consistently good and would represent the most qualified national champion.

The rest of them are products of getting hot at the right time, and those types of champions just never feel the same to me.

I agree with this, about Virginia this year, and the concept in general - that if my team is gone, I want the overall best team to win it. Just feels more right, as you say. (Caveat: this does not apply to my rooting interest if there's a team on a big multi year roll....like Nova. I want Duke to be the only team like that).

[dukelifer]

This stat (https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/1112512805406535680) is shocking:

These teams have been in many games together. That matters a lot. I think the evidence is clear- you win with experienced teams. Even in 2015- Duke had a very experienced core. This year was the least experienced Duke team I can remember. A bit like 1982 when Dawkins et al came to Duke. That team struggled. Zion Williamson with RJ Barrett is unlikely to ever happen again. That combo was almost enough. But experience with a little luck wins championships. Still Duke was the most talked about team in America.

[freshmanjs]

These teams have been in many games together. That matters a lot. I think the evidence is clear- you win with experienced teams. Even in 2015- Duke had a very experienced core. This year was the least experienced Duke team I can remember. A bit like 1982 when Dawkins et al came to Duke. That team struggled. Zion Williamson with RJ Barrett is unlikely to ever happen again. That combo was almost enough. But experience with a little luck wins championships. Still Duke was the most talked about team in America.

How is that evidence clear? There were 2 one and done oriented teams this year. 100% of them made the elite 8 and were in coin flip games to get to the final four. What % of top programs following the veteran model got that far?

[YmoBeThere]

How is that evidence clear? There were 2 one and done oriented teams this year. 100% of them made the elite 8 and were in coin flip games to get to the final four. What % of top programs following the veteran model got that far?

It all depends on what your measure of success. Quite clearly, the measure of success for many is an NCAA title. Two 1 and done teams have won titles in the 1 and done era. 2012 UK and 2015 Duke. This is vindication to both sides depending upon their measure of success.

[freshmanjs]

It all depends on what your measure of success. Quite clearly, the measure of success for many is an NCAA title. Two 1 and done teams have won titles in the 1 and done era. 2012 UK and 2015 Duke. This is vindication to both sides depending upon their measure of success.

Still disagree. 2 one and done dominated teams have won the championship. That’s a lot considering how few one and done dominated teams there have been. How many would you expect to have won if the strategy works equally to the strategy all other good programs are using?

[YmoBeThere]

That’s a lot considering how few one and done dominated teams there have been.

Many fans would consider this an irrelevant argument. How many teams using a tactic does not matter to them, did the particular tactic produce titles for their team? And how many titles? You are arguing nuanced statistics and 1 title in 8 years, they are arguing 4 national titles in 31 years. You'll argue 2 Elite Eights with that title and they'll argue Mercer and Lehigh.

[YmoBeThere]

https://sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/why-this-duke-loss-will-haunt-coach-k-more-than-any-other-024628073.html


[But Duke couldn't deliver the Disney ending, which isn't altogether unsurprising considering that the one-and-done era is on the cusp of being remembered as unkind to teams with title aspirations who've relied too heavily on that model. Kentucky's 2012 title team and Duke's in 2015 are the only championship teams that would have been considered primarily reliant on freshmen.

Some see it as a sign of success, others see it as failure. Damn the statistics.

[freshmanjs]

Many fans would consider this an irrelevant argument. How many teams using a tactic does not matter to them, did the particular tactic produce titles for their team? And how many titles? You are arguing nuanced statistics and 1 title in 8 years, they are arguing 4 national titles in 31 years. You'll argue 2 Elite Eights with that title and they'll argue Mercer and Lehigh.

Well if that happened, then I’d be arguing with people who can’t think. If a strategy is bad if it doesn’t produce lots of titles in an 8 year span then literally all programs have a failing strategy.

You do realize that 1 in 8 is almost exactly the same as 4 in 31 right?

[YmoBeThere]

Well if that happened, then I’d be arguing with people who can’t think. If a strategy is bad if it doesn’t produce lots of titles in an 8 year span then literally all programs have a failing strategy.

You do realize that 1 in 8 is almost exactly the same as 4 in 31 right?

It is? I knew I should have focused on stats rather than engineering!

I deal with stats everyday with work(insurance). What I’m really arguing is that statistics has its limits and when talking to fans of a team that will become blatantly obvious. Statistics are NEVER determinant. And no matter how unlikely a chance is always a chance. That’s why I buy my 1 Powerball/Megamillions ticket for the large large jackpots.

[Troublemaker]

Personally, I'm rooting big time for Virginia to win now. Out of the 4 teams left, they're the one that has been the most consistently good and would represent the most qualified national champion.

The rest of them are products of getting hot at the right time, and those types of champions just never feel the same to me.


I agree with this, about Virginia this year, and the concept in general - that if my team is gone, I want the overall best team to win it. Just feels more right, as you say. (Caveat: this does not apply to my rooting interest if there's a team on a big multi year roll...like Nova. I want Duke to be the only team like that).

I don't understand rooting for UVA to win it all or the root-for-the-ACC angle I've seen posted elsewhere.

First of all, did their fans root for us? Probably not, right? (That doesn't mean I don't like and respect our UVA posters. I do, and I don't expect them to root for Duke.)

More importantly, what result benefits Duke? Look, probably nothing is going to stop UVA from surpassing Duke as a program once Coach K retires. (And they have a chance to do it while Coach K is still around, too.) But do we have to actively root for it to happen? I would prefer that in four years or so Duke Head Coach Jeff Capel doesn't have to deal with a UVA program that has a recent national championship under its belt.

I also can't root for Texas Tech because if Duke decides to go "outside the family" for the K replacement, I can think of no finer candidate than Chris Beard. Therefore, I want Beard to feel like he needs to leave TTU to win a national championship. Can't root for the Red Raiders.

Auburn? I'd have no issue with them winning it all but I do have some frontrunner / gloryhunter in me. Auburn seems to me easily the worst of the 4 teams, and I can't commit to rooting for them for that reason. I want a good chance to win, haha.

Go Sparty. Make it so that Duke lost to the eventual national champ in a tossup game. Izzo has also been a great coach for a very long time and deserves to join Coach K, Calhoun, Roy as coaches that have won more than 1 title. Or, put another way, he deserves to separate himself from the Gary Williams' of the world who only have one.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I don't understand rooting for UVA to win it all or the root-for-the-ACC angle I've seen posted elsewhere.

First of all, did their fans root for us? Probably not, right? (That doesn't mean I don't like and respect our UVA posters. I do, and I don't expect them to root for Duke.)

More importantly, what result benefits Duke? Look, probably nothing is going to stop UVA from surpassing Duke as a program once Coach K retires. (And they have a chance to do it while Coach K is still around, too.) But do we have to actively root for it to happen? I would prefer that in four years or so Duke Head Coach Jeff Capel doesn't have to deal with a UVA program that has a recent national championship under its belt.

I also can't root for Texas Tech because if Duke decides to go "outside the family" for the K replacement, I can think of no finer candidate than Chris Beard. But I want him to feel like he needs to leave TTU to win a national championship.

Auburn? I'd have no issue with them winning it all but I do have some frontrunner / gloryhunter in me. Auburn seems to me easily the worst of the 4 teams, and I can't commit to rooting for them. I want a good chance to win, haha.

Go Sparty. Make it so that Duke lost to the eventual national champ in a tossup game.

Go for it. You do you. No one makes the official rules for being a Duke fan.

I am gonna root for Virginia.

[bludevil_33]

Look, probably nothing is going to stop UVA from surpassing Duke as a program once Coach K retires. (And they have a chance to do it while Coach K is still around, too.)


Whoa, whoa, whoa, slow down there hoss.

Virginia needs about a dozen more Final Fours, a handful more championships (both ACC and NCAA) to surpass Duke as a program.

Ain't happenin' while Coach K is still around.

[Troublemaker]

Go for it. You do you. No one makes the official rules for being a Duke fan.

I am gonna root for Virginia.

Unnecessary snark. You obviously can do whatever you want. I was just explaining my own thought process. Basically my version of johnb's post above with a different conclusion -- he's rooting for TTU, I'm going with Sparty.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Unnecessary snark. You obviously can do whatever you want. I was just explaining my own thought process. Basically my version of johnb's post above with a different conclusion -- he's rooting for TTU, I'm going with Sparty.

No, I honestly wasn't being snarky. I apologize if it came off that way. I was meaning to encourage you to do what seems right.

I should have known better, as everyone top to bottom on this board is pretty cranky. I'm sorry.

But truly, we all get to do what we want. We can whine about our coaching decisions, recruiting decisions, we can be proud of our season and our players, we can be relieved to look to next season...

I am going to root for Virginia. They seem to do things the right way, they are our conference-mates, and I like their coach. Also, their fans aren't nearly as obnoxious as many others (or maybe I don't run into as many). Also, I like the idea that we have beaten the potential national champ twice.

[Troublemaker]

No, I honestly wasn't being snarky. I apologize if it came off that way. I was meaning to encourage you to do what seems right.

I should have known better, as everyone top to bottom on this board is pretty cranky. I'm sorry.

But truly, we all get to do what we want. We can whine about our coaching decisions, recruiting decisions, we can be proud of our season and our players, we can be relieved to look to next season...

I am going to root for Virginia. They seem to do things the right way, they are our conference-mates, and I like their coach. Also, their fans aren't nearly as obnoxious as many others (or maybe I don't run into as many). Also, I like the idea that we have beaten the potential national champ twice.

Gotcha. We're good. It looks like I mistook your genuine encouragement for sarcastic encouragement.

It's not because I'm cranky, though. I'm doing well today despite the loss. I can usually spot sarcasm/snark but obviously I don't bat 1.000 on those calls and clearly struck out here.

Thanks for your clarification, Mtn Devil.

[devildeac]

If UVa wins one more game, I win our office pool and a gift certificate to my favorite craft beer store, just like last year and two years before that, so go Hoos :o:p.

After that, I have no rooting interest as I picked Duke to beat UVa in the championship game:mad:.

[Chicago 1995]

Go Wahoos and Texas Tech.

I like the kids that play for Auburn, but Bruce Pearl's mammoth amount of baggage makes that a tougher sell.

Still better than MSU.

[DarkstarWahoo]

If UVa wins one more game, I win our office pool and a gift certificate to my favorite craft beer store, just like last year and two years before that, so go Hoos :o:p.

I have to spread comments around, but I endorse this on every level.

[Tripping William]

I have to spread comments around, but I endorse this on every level.

Right. Because devildeac certainly needs one *more* reason to visit his favorite craft beer store . . . . . . :rolleyes: :o

FWIW: I'm cheering for the Hoos as well.

[Kfanarmy]

As a lover of those that overcome the odds...I'm rooting for Texas Tech.

[devildeac]

Right. Because devildeac certainly needs one *more* reason to visit his favorite craft beer store . . . . . . :rolleyes: :o

FWIW: I'm cheering for the Hoos as well.

"...Let’s have another round tonight..."

[Dukelogger]

For me, knowing we beat the eventual National Champion twice in the regular season and the second game was at their place and was a double digit win for the good guys seems like the best outcome for Duke. This tourney is largely about matchups, hot hands and officiating tendencies. Players are playing under the duress of their season ending and that brings out the best and worst at times, but it’s an unpredictable gauntlet that the only way to consistently win or compete in final fours is to consistently enter the tourney as a high seed and play law of averages until it breaks your way. The higher the seed, the shorter the time frame between F4’s once law of averages play out.

UVA’s “system/program” is one year removed from historic failure in the tourney so any crowning of their program will be steeped with a heavy dose of recency bias. And a readily available rebuttal.

[UVa1981]

UVA’s “system/program” is one year removed from historic failure in the tourney so any crowning of their program will be steeped with a heavy dose of recency bias. And a readily available rebuttal.

Way tooooo early to be crowning UVa yet. Not even if we are lucky enough to win a national crown. To be sure, we've been consistently strong in the ACC lately. We've been going to the NCAAs (but see last year's result, which I believe led to this year's result) regularly and seeding well in it. A national crown would be a good start to getting UVa in the conversation as a perennial heavyweight.

But it would just be a start. Toss a handful of more Final Fours plus another national crown. Then UVa has an argument to make.

[weezie]

... Also, I like the idea that we have beaten the potential national champ twice.

And right there is a good reason why they will win. Fate so often rolls around and comes around.

[Bill]

It doesn't mean anything, of course, other than the fact that they were a damn good team, just not perfect.

[jv001]

Gohoos!!!!!!

[Dukelogger]

Beat three of them away from home, two by double digits. And the Auburn game could’ve been a double digit win were it not for a last second meaningless 3 (going off memory but I believe that’s the case.) that’s the makings of a very good team and a very good season.

[mr. synellinden]

I saw this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KH0RRJdDmA&feature=youtu.be) linked in a very good Ringer story (https://www.theringer.com/march-madness/2019/4/3/18293467/chris-beard-texas-tech-jarrett-culver-final-four-defense) about Chris Beard and Texas Tech and thought it was really fascinating in terms of presenting the fundamental principles of TT's historically good defense.