kAzE
03-26-2019, 01:16 PM
Duke survived and advanced past the first weekend of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Barely. After an easy victory against the North Dakota State Bison, Duke faced a talented and motivated Central Florida team. UCF played almost a perfect game and probably should have won the game, if not for Aubrey Dawkins' failed alley oop attempt with two minutes left, or his last second tip-in that JUST rolled off the rim. We made it to the Sweet 16, but we needed some luck to get there.
1. Health
Marques Bolden made his return from a sprained knee and played in both games, but didn't quite look 100%. He played 18 minutes against NDSU, and just 9 minutes against UCF, but was mostly ineffective. Javin filled in for him admirably, but I think had Marques been at full strength, he would have had a slightly more favorable matchup against Tacko Fall. Hopefully, another week of rest and recovery will get Marques closer to his old self.
Jack White missed both games this past weekend with a hamstring tear. Jack was quoted saying that he heard a pop as he tried to stretch the hamstring late in the ACC title game. Hamstring injuries are notoriously tricky, and it's anyone's guess whether or not Jack will be able to suit up this weekend. He is reportedly not able to run at full sprint with this injury, which is not ideal for Jack's style of play. We need Jack's defensive versatility back as soon possible, as he is one of the key cogs for this team off the bench, and is incredibly effective when he's confident in his jump shot.
Needless to say, it is absolutely critical that we do not sustain any further injuries whatsoever. Knock on wood!!
2. Rotation
The ACC tournament gave us some indication of Coach K's postseason rotation, minus Marques, and the UCF game I think is going to be about what we see going forward in close games. Tre, RJ, and Zion are going to play as many minutes as possible, with Cam not far behind. Javin looks to be the starting center going forward until further notice. With the injuries to Marques and Jack, it has been a blessing that we have some depth on our front line. Javin has played some of his best basketball in the past 2 weeks for Duke, and we've really needed those performances to get to this point. He doesn't have the ideal combination of size and strength you would hope for as a center, but he's done about as well as we could hope for on the glass and as a rim protector.
As for the bench, Jordan Goldwire is our 6th man. Probably no one saw that coming. Talent wise, Jordan is not even top 10 on this team, but his defensive tenacity and quickness are a great fit for when we need to turn up the pressure and force some turnovers. Offensively, he's even started to hit some shots, but as a 12% 3 point shooter on the year, let's hope we don't need to count on him too much . . .
Bolden has been discussed already, but he's currently our best big man option off the bench. Unfortunately, in the UCF game, he didn't look like his usual mobile self, and was a step too slow. A healthy Bolden would be a welcome addition to this rotation.
That's pretty much it for the rotation. Jack should get some minutes when he's back, but 7.5 is about as deep as Coach K goes when the season is on the line.
3. Defense
There was some concern about our defensive performance against UCF, but after going back and watching the tape several times, I concluded that we played pretty good defense for the most part. The only major thing that I saw which needs to be addressed is transition defense. We just have to be more aware of shooters in transition, especially when we are utilizing our full court press.
Our halfourt defense was pretty good for the most part. There were a couple of shot contests that could have used a bit more effort, but I thought for the most part, we defended them well in the halfcourt. Many of their halfcourt scores were just due to Tacko being way too big for us to handle, or Aubrey Dawkins making incredible shots against good defense. We also have to be slightly more judicious when gambling for steals, which led to a few wide open looks that they knocked down.
Overall, this Duke team is very good defensively, which is reflected in our #6 defensive efficiency ranking on KenPom.com (better than our offense, which is #7).
4. Shooting
Oh, boy. We've heard the criticisms all year, and it almost came back to bite us this time. We actually didn't shoot poorly against UCF, but our starting point guard went 1 for 8. It was magnified by the fact that just about all 8 of those attempts were about as wide open as it gets. UCF did not even pretend to guard Tre Jones. This is a problem that probably won't fix itself over the next few weeks. We have at most 4 games left this season, and we're just going to have to live with the fact that Tre isn't a good 3 point shooter. But the good news is, he's pretty consistent from mid range on those floaters, pull-up shots and runners. And if the other team doesn't have a 7'6" center who can contest those mid range shots without moving, I think Tre is good enough to contribute on offense.
Another pretty nice development is that Zion has somehow become our most consistent 3 point shooter. I believe he's shooting better than 40% from deep over the last month or so. However, I wish it was someone else, because we need someone not named Zion to space the floor for Zion.
It's probably not going to be RJ. It's great when RJ does get hot from deep (@UVA), but at around 30%, he's just not a consistent threat. It's not Javin, Marques, or Jordan. Jack is still a question mark. That just leaves Cam. Hopefully, the nice shooting performance we saw from Cam (oh my God, that 3 with 1:45 to go was insanely clutch) gets him on a roll. We need Cam's shooting more than just about anything else for the rest of this tournament. If Cam Reddish shoots 40% or better from 3, this team is nearly unbeatable.
5. Scouting
CDu has already posted an outstanding scouting report on Virginia Tech in the game thread, but I will post it here as well for convenience:
Second weekend. The quality of opponents from here on out will be top-10 caliber teams. Nothing easy left on our schedule. Time to get to work.
Va Tech is an extremely well-coached squad that is in transition style-wise. Buzz Williams is starting to get a team that fits his style, though, and it wasn't like Va Tech wasn't already a pugnacious bunch. Williams believes strongly in positionless bball. His Marquette teams were stacked with 6'6"-6'7" guys with tons of strength, athleticism, and versatility (picture Jimmy Butler), and he's moving that way with the Hokies as well. The Hokies are an elite offensive team and a pretty darn good defensive team as well. They aren't nearly as good offensively if their PG is out, though. They shoot extremely well from 3, but are also really efficient from 2pt range and the FT line as well. They play a matchup-zone defense along with an occasional zone press, forcing a lot of turnovers while not fouling much. They use a bunch of interchangeable parts with one big and one or two smalls, and everyone else playing all over the place. They congest the lane, and allow more three point attempts than just about anyone. I would imagine that gameplan doesn't change against us. They grind out possessions at a nearly-UVa rate, and I'd imagine that to continue in this one too as they don't want to let us get easy buckets in transition. On offense, they move a ton, hit 3s, and pass well from multiple spots on the floor. It's a tough, tough team.
Centers: The Hokies pretty much have only one - Kerry Blackshear, Jr (6'10", 240lb redshirt junior). Blackshear has become a stud for the Hokies. He isn't overly physical, but he's an extremely capable scorer both in the paint and from 3. He'll be a handful. He rebounds well on both ends, especially on offense. He also is a not-awful shotblocker, though he's not elite at it. He's a terrific passer out of the high post too. Blackshear will play as much as he possibly can, because the Hokies really have no plan B inside. He smashed us in Blacksburg, but I'd like to see what he can do with Zion on the floor.
Forwards: The Hokies don't really have any of these.
Wings: There are a bunch of guys to talk about here. Alexander-Walker is of course the star. He is a smooth player but not at all explosive, stylistically not unlike Reddish (more polished but not as quick or nearly as long). He is a smart positional defender who reads the passing lanes well and collects a lot of steals. But he isn’t a lockdown on-ball defender. The Hokies have a pair of vets starting alongside him in Ty Outlaw (6’6”, 220lb sixth-year senior via UNC-G and Lee College) and Ahmed Hill (6’5”, 210lb fifth-year senior). Outlaw was a superb high school athlete who has transferred twice (once to a JuCo), missed a season to a heart condition and missed another due to a torn ACL. Hill missed all of the 2016 season with a partially torn patella tendon. He is a solid, versatile defender and a good perimeter shooter. He's also a terrific athlete. The third option is PJ Horne (6'5", 230lb sophomore). Horne is another rugged, athletic forward that is a junk yard dog. He's not nearly as good a perimeter shooter as his wing partners, but he's a relentless offensive rebounder and a good scorer around the basket. All 3 of these guys embody the type of versatile, physical wings that Williams loves. They essentially play forward, even though their skill sets and height are more winglike. Last but not least on the wings is Isaiah Wilkins (6'3", 230lb freshman). If the name sounds familiar, it should: he shares the same name (and spelling) as UVa's former defensive stalwart. They don't appear to be related. Wilkins is a fire hydrant of a wing. He's not overly athletic, but he can really shoot, and he doesn't mind banging inside either.
Guards: The Hokies have a stud PG in Justin Robinson (6'2", 195lb senior) recently returning from a serious toe injury. He's the playmaker, senior leader, and sparkplug of the offense. Robinson does it all as a scorer, much like Alexander-Walker. He's a true PG, but also a terrific scoring threat off-ball. He is super-efficient both inside the arc and outside the arc, and loves attacking off the dribble. And defensively Robinson gets a lot of steals as well. When he's healthy, he and Alexander-Walker make for a dynamite duo. Behind Robinson is Wabissa Bede (6'1", 195lb sophomore). Bede is kind of like Tyler Thornton: a shorter, stout, not overly athletic, but crafty and high-IQ style player. He is a coach's dream of a role player, but athletically he's pretty limited. Lastly, Jonathan Kabongo (6'4", 180lb freshman from Canada) fills out the squad. Kabongo is the younger brother of former high-level recruit and Texas PG Myck Kabongo. Jonathan is not nearly the prospect that Myck was, but physically the similarities are striking. He likely won't play at all now that Robinson is back.
I would expect Jones to guard Robinson and Reddish will get Alexander-Walker. I'll be looking forward to seeing Jones try to lock down another elite ACC guard. Blackshear creates a problem for us, because he's too quick for Bolden but too strong/skilled for DeLaurier. I do like, though, that they don't have any size, which should allow us to play smaller more often with Barrett as the de facto PF and Zion at C. I hope White gets back in the mix, as his physicality might play well in this one.
Additional scouting notes for LSU and MSU will be posted later.
6. Zion
Let's face it, this team is going as far as Zion Williamson takes it. He is the greatest college basketball player I have personally ever witnessed. He has exceeded every single expectation of him and then some. Any day now, we will be watching him play basketball in a Duke uniform for the final time. As fans, treasure these games. Years from now, we'll all remember 2018-2019 was the season we had the privilege to watch Zion Williamson play for Duke.
1. Health
Marques Bolden made his return from a sprained knee and played in both games, but didn't quite look 100%. He played 18 minutes against NDSU, and just 9 minutes against UCF, but was mostly ineffective. Javin filled in for him admirably, but I think had Marques been at full strength, he would have had a slightly more favorable matchup against Tacko Fall. Hopefully, another week of rest and recovery will get Marques closer to his old self.
Jack White missed both games this past weekend with a hamstring tear. Jack was quoted saying that he heard a pop as he tried to stretch the hamstring late in the ACC title game. Hamstring injuries are notoriously tricky, and it's anyone's guess whether or not Jack will be able to suit up this weekend. He is reportedly not able to run at full sprint with this injury, which is not ideal for Jack's style of play. We need Jack's defensive versatility back as soon possible, as he is one of the key cogs for this team off the bench, and is incredibly effective when he's confident in his jump shot.
Needless to say, it is absolutely critical that we do not sustain any further injuries whatsoever. Knock on wood!!
2. Rotation
The ACC tournament gave us some indication of Coach K's postseason rotation, minus Marques, and the UCF game I think is going to be about what we see going forward in close games. Tre, RJ, and Zion are going to play as many minutes as possible, with Cam not far behind. Javin looks to be the starting center going forward until further notice. With the injuries to Marques and Jack, it has been a blessing that we have some depth on our front line. Javin has played some of his best basketball in the past 2 weeks for Duke, and we've really needed those performances to get to this point. He doesn't have the ideal combination of size and strength you would hope for as a center, but he's done about as well as we could hope for on the glass and as a rim protector.
As for the bench, Jordan Goldwire is our 6th man. Probably no one saw that coming. Talent wise, Jordan is not even top 10 on this team, but his defensive tenacity and quickness are a great fit for when we need to turn up the pressure and force some turnovers. Offensively, he's even started to hit some shots, but as a 12% 3 point shooter on the year, let's hope we don't need to count on him too much . . .
Bolden has been discussed already, but he's currently our best big man option off the bench. Unfortunately, in the UCF game, he didn't look like his usual mobile self, and was a step too slow. A healthy Bolden would be a welcome addition to this rotation.
That's pretty much it for the rotation. Jack should get some minutes when he's back, but 7.5 is about as deep as Coach K goes when the season is on the line.
3. Defense
There was some concern about our defensive performance against UCF, but after going back and watching the tape several times, I concluded that we played pretty good defense for the most part. The only major thing that I saw which needs to be addressed is transition defense. We just have to be more aware of shooters in transition, especially when we are utilizing our full court press.
Our halfourt defense was pretty good for the most part. There were a couple of shot contests that could have used a bit more effort, but I thought for the most part, we defended them well in the halfcourt. Many of their halfcourt scores were just due to Tacko being way too big for us to handle, or Aubrey Dawkins making incredible shots against good defense. We also have to be slightly more judicious when gambling for steals, which led to a few wide open looks that they knocked down.
Overall, this Duke team is very good defensively, which is reflected in our #6 defensive efficiency ranking on KenPom.com (better than our offense, which is #7).
4. Shooting
Oh, boy. We've heard the criticisms all year, and it almost came back to bite us this time. We actually didn't shoot poorly against UCF, but our starting point guard went 1 for 8. It was magnified by the fact that just about all 8 of those attempts were about as wide open as it gets. UCF did not even pretend to guard Tre Jones. This is a problem that probably won't fix itself over the next few weeks. We have at most 4 games left this season, and we're just going to have to live with the fact that Tre isn't a good 3 point shooter. But the good news is, he's pretty consistent from mid range on those floaters, pull-up shots and runners. And if the other team doesn't have a 7'6" center who can contest those mid range shots without moving, I think Tre is good enough to contribute on offense.
Another pretty nice development is that Zion has somehow become our most consistent 3 point shooter. I believe he's shooting better than 40% from deep over the last month or so. However, I wish it was someone else, because we need someone not named Zion to space the floor for Zion.
It's probably not going to be RJ. It's great when RJ does get hot from deep (@UVA), but at around 30%, he's just not a consistent threat. It's not Javin, Marques, or Jordan. Jack is still a question mark. That just leaves Cam. Hopefully, the nice shooting performance we saw from Cam (oh my God, that 3 with 1:45 to go was insanely clutch) gets him on a roll. We need Cam's shooting more than just about anything else for the rest of this tournament. If Cam Reddish shoots 40% or better from 3, this team is nearly unbeatable.
5. Scouting
CDu has already posted an outstanding scouting report on Virginia Tech in the game thread, but I will post it here as well for convenience:
Second weekend. The quality of opponents from here on out will be top-10 caliber teams. Nothing easy left on our schedule. Time to get to work.
Va Tech is an extremely well-coached squad that is in transition style-wise. Buzz Williams is starting to get a team that fits his style, though, and it wasn't like Va Tech wasn't already a pugnacious bunch. Williams believes strongly in positionless bball. His Marquette teams were stacked with 6'6"-6'7" guys with tons of strength, athleticism, and versatility (picture Jimmy Butler), and he's moving that way with the Hokies as well. The Hokies are an elite offensive team and a pretty darn good defensive team as well. They aren't nearly as good offensively if their PG is out, though. They shoot extremely well from 3, but are also really efficient from 2pt range and the FT line as well. They play a matchup-zone defense along with an occasional zone press, forcing a lot of turnovers while not fouling much. They use a bunch of interchangeable parts with one big and one or two smalls, and everyone else playing all over the place. They congest the lane, and allow more three point attempts than just about anyone. I would imagine that gameplan doesn't change against us. They grind out possessions at a nearly-UVa rate, and I'd imagine that to continue in this one too as they don't want to let us get easy buckets in transition. On offense, they move a ton, hit 3s, and pass well from multiple spots on the floor. It's a tough, tough team.
Centers: The Hokies pretty much have only one - Kerry Blackshear, Jr (6'10", 240lb redshirt junior). Blackshear has become a stud for the Hokies. He isn't overly physical, but he's an extremely capable scorer both in the paint and from 3. He'll be a handful. He rebounds well on both ends, especially on offense. He also is a not-awful shotblocker, though he's not elite at it. He's a terrific passer out of the high post too. Blackshear will play as much as he possibly can, because the Hokies really have no plan B inside. He smashed us in Blacksburg, but I'd like to see what he can do with Zion on the floor.
Forwards: The Hokies don't really have any of these.
Wings: There are a bunch of guys to talk about here. Alexander-Walker is of course the star. He is a smooth player but not at all explosive, stylistically not unlike Reddish (more polished but not as quick or nearly as long). He is a smart positional defender who reads the passing lanes well and collects a lot of steals. But he isn’t a lockdown on-ball defender. The Hokies have a pair of vets starting alongside him in Ty Outlaw (6’6”, 220lb sixth-year senior via UNC-G and Lee College) and Ahmed Hill (6’5”, 210lb fifth-year senior). Outlaw was a superb high school athlete who has transferred twice (once to a JuCo), missed a season to a heart condition and missed another due to a torn ACL. Hill missed all of the 2016 season with a partially torn patella tendon. He is a solid, versatile defender and a good perimeter shooter. He's also a terrific athlete. The third option is PJ Horne (6'5", 230lb sophomore). Horne is another rugged, athletic forward that is a junk yard dog. He's not nearly as good a perimeter shooter as his wing partners, but he's a relentless offensive rebounder and a good scorer around the basket. All 3 of these guys embody the type of versatile, physical wings that Williams loves. They essentially play forward, even though their skill sets and height are more winglike. Last but not least on the wings is Isaiah Wilkins (6'3", 230lb freshman). If the name sounds familiar, it should: he shares the same name (and spelling) as UVa's former defensive stalwart. They don't appear to be related. Wilkins is a fire hydrant of a wing. He's not overly athletic, but he can really shoot, and he doesn't mind banging inside either.
Guards: The Hokies have a stud PG in Justin Robinson (6'2", 195lb senior) recently returning from a serious toe injury. He's the playmaker, senior leader, and sparkplug of the offense. Robinson does it all as a scorer, much like Alexander-Walker. He's a true PG, but also a terrific scoring threat off-ball. He is super-efficient both inside the arc and outside the arc, and loves attacking off the dribble. And defensively Robinson gets a lot of steals as well. When he's healthy, he and Alexander-Walker make for a dynamite duo. Behind Robinson is Wabissa Bede (6'1", 195lb sophomore). Bede is kind of like Tyler Thornton: a shorter, stout, not overly athletic, but crafty and high-IQ style player. He is a coach's dream of a role player, but athletically he's pretty limited. Lastly, Jonathan Kabongo (6'4", 180lb freshman from Canada) fills out the squad. Kabongo is the younger brother of former high-level recruit and Texas PG Myck Kabongo. Jonathan is not nearly the prospect that Myck was, but physically the similarities are striking. He likely won't play at all now that Robinson is back.
I would expect Jones to guard Robinson and Reddish will get Alexander-Walker. I'll be looking forward to seeing Jones try to lock down another elite ACC guard. Blackshear creates a problem for us, because he's too quick for Bolden but too strong/skilled for DeLaurier. I do like, though, that they don't have any size, which should allow us to play smaller more often with Barrett as the de facto PF and Zion at C. I hope White gets back in the mix, as his physicality might play well in this one.
Additional scouting notes for LSU and MSU will be posted later.
6. Zion
Let's face it, this team is going as far as Zion Williamson takes it. He is the greatest college basketball player I have personally ever witnessed. He has exceeded every single expectation of him and then some. Any day now, we will be watching him play basketball in a Duke uniform for the final time. As fans, treasure these games. Years from now, we'll all remember 2018-2019 was the season we had the privilege to watch Zion Williamson play for Duke.