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View Full Version : MBB: Duke vs Va Tech (3/29, 9:39pm CBS) Pre-game and In-game Thread



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CDu
03-25-2019, 10:02 AM
We get to do this for another weekend! Another Sweet-16 for Coach K. Let's discuss here.

Jeffrey
03-25-2019, 10:07 AM
I think this is a good matchup for Duke and expect to be favored by 5+.

uh_no
03-25-2019, 10:08 AM
We get to do this for another weekend! Another Sweet-16 for Coach K. Let's discuss here.

like to see us clean up on the glass. hopefully RJ sees that last play and realizes what was up. would be nice to have jack back.

even if the shots aren't falling, lets get them with size.

budwom
03-25-2019, 10:10 AM
I think this is a good matchup for Duke and expect to be favored by 5+.

early line Duke -7.5

HereBeforeCoachK
03-25-2019, 10:12 AM
early line Duke -7.5

That may seem a tad thick...but versus last game vs VT:
(++++) we get Zion back
(--) they get Robinson back
(+++) NOT in the dark dank gym in Blacksburg....

CDu
03-25-2019, 10:14 AM
Second weekend. The quality of opponents from here on out will be top-10 caliber teams. Nothing easy left on our schedule. Time to get to work.

Va Tech is an extremely well-coached squad that is in transition style-wise. Buzz Williams is starting to get a team that fits his style, though, and it wasn't like Va Tech wasn't already a pugnacious bunch. Williams believes strongly in positionless bball. His Marquette teams were stacked with 6'6"-6'7" guys with tons of strength, athleticism, and versatility (picture Jimmy Butler), and he's moving that way with the Hokies as well. The Hokies are an elite offensive team and a pretty darn good defensive team as well. They aren't nearly as good offensively if their PG is out, though. They shoot extremely well from 3, but are also really efficient from 2pt range and the FT line as well. They play a matchup-zone defense along with an occasional zone press, forcing a lot of turnovers while not fouling much. They use a bunch of interchangeable parts with one big and one or two smalls, and everyone else playing all over the place. They congest the lane, and allow more three point attempts than just about anyone. I would imagine that gameplan doesn't change against us. They grind out possessions at a nearly-UVa rate, and I'd imagine that to continue in this one too as they don't want to let us get easy buckets in transition. On offense, they move a ton, hit 3s, and pass well from multiple spots on the floor. It's a tough, tough team.

Centers: The Hokies pretty much have only one - Kerry Blackshear, Jr (6'10", 240lb redshirt junior). Blackshear has become a stud for the Hokies. He isn't overly physical, but he's an extremely capable scorer both in the paint and from 3. He'll be a handful. He rebounds well on both ends, especially on offense. He also is a not-awful shotblocker, though he's not elite at it. He's a terrific passer out of the high post too. Blackshear will play as much as he possibly can, because the Hokies really have no plan B inside. He smashed us in Blacksburg, but I'd like to see what he can do with Zion on the floor.

Forwards: The Hokies don't really have any of these.

Wings: There are a bunch of guys to talk about here. Alexander-Walker is of course the star. He is a smooth player but not at all explosive, stylistically not unlike Reddish (more polished but not as quick or nearly as long). He is a smart positional defender who reads the passing lanes well and collects a lot of steals. But he isn’t a lockdown on-ball defender. The Hokies have a pair of vets starting alongside him in Ty Outlaw (6’6”, 220lb sixth-year senior via UNC-G and Lee College) and Ahmed Hill (6’5”, 210lb fifth-year senior). Outlaw was a superb high school athlete who has transferred twice (once to a JuCo), missed a season to a heart condition and missed another due to a torn ACL. Hill missed all of the 2016 season with a partially torn patella tendon. He is a solid, versatile defender and a good perimeter shooter. He's also a terrific athlete. The third option is PJ Horne (6'5", 230lb sophomore). Horne is another rugged, athletic forward that is a junk yard dog. He's not nearly as good a perimeter shooter as his wing partners, but he's a relentless offensive rebounder and a good scorer around the basket. All 3 of these guys embody the type of versatile, physical wings that Williams loves. They essentially play forward, even though their skill sets and height are more winglike. Last but not least on the wings is Isaiah Wilkins (6'3", 230lb freshman). If the name sounds familiar, it should: he shares the same name (and spelling) as UVa's former defensive stalwart. They don't appear to be related. Wilkins is a fire hydrant of a wing. He's not overly athletic, but he can really shoot, and he doesn't mind banging inside either.

Guards: The Hokies have a stud PG in Justin Robinson (6'2", 195lb senior) recently returning from a serious toe injury. He's the playmaker, senior leader, and sparkplug of the offense. Robinson does it all as a scorer, much like Alexander-Walker. He's a true PG, but also a terrific scoring threat off-ball. He is super-efficient both inside the arc and outside the arc, and loves attacking off the dribble. And defensively Robinson gets a lot of steals as well. When he's healthy, he and Alexander-Walker make for a dynamite duo. Behind Robinson is Wabissa Bede (6'1", 195lb sophomore). Bede is kind of like Tyler Thornton: a shorter, stout, not overly athletic, but crafty and high-IQ style player. He is a coach's dream of a role player, but athletically he's pretty limited. Lastly, Jonathan Kabongo (6'4", 180lb freshman from Canada) fills out the squad. Kabongo is the younger brother of former high-level recruit and Texas PG Myck Kabongo. Jonathan is not nearly the prospect that Myck was, but physically the similarities are striking. He likely won't play at all now that Robinson is back.

I would expect Jones to guard Robinson and Reddish will get Alexander-Walker. I'll be looking forward to seeing Jones try to lock down another elite ACC guard. Blackshear creates a problem for us, because he's too quick for Bolden but too strong/skilled for DeLaurier. I do like, though, that they don't have any size, which should allow us to play smaller more often with Barrett as the de facto PF and Zion at C. I hope White gets back in the mix, as his physicality might play well in this one.

OldPhiKap
03-25-2019, 10:15 AM
That may seem a tad thick...but versus last game vs VT:
(++++) we get Zion back
(--) they get Robinson back
(+++) NOT in the dark dank gym in Blacksburg...

... In DC, which will have more Duke support but will still be a very hostile crowd ....

FerryFor50
03-25-2019, 10:19 AM
Not an awful matchup for Duke, considering. But I would have rather had UVA's 4 seed (because they lost) and ended up with Oregon. :-P

Duke - VT only played once, and both teams were missing their best player. Duke was without Zion and VT was without Justin Robinson.

In that game, Barrett and Reddish were solid, as was Bolden. For VT, Kerry Blackshear was a real problem - he had 23 pts, 10 boards. VT won by 5, but Duke was a made Cam Reddish 3 away from tying the game.

I think having Zion back in this game will help negate Blackshear a bit. Zion will be able to guard him one on one when they get matched up and he'll be able to bother shots from the weakside when Blackshear has Bolden/DeLaurier on him. Plus, Zion will help clean up some of the missed shots we gave up to Blackshear.

The question mark will be Justin Robinson. He looked good in his first two games; averaged 11 points and 2 assists, but looked healthy and energetic. Hopefully Tre and Goldwire can wear him down a bit.

VT looked real strong against St. Louis, but a little shakier against Liberty. But in both games, they were at 40%+ from 3.

It will be interesting to see how well VT fans will travel - Blacksburg is about an hour closer to DC than Durham. The good news is that we should see way less annoying UNC fans there just to root against Duke.

Keys to the game, I think:

- Control the glass
- Slow down Blackshear
- run VT off the 3 pt line
- wear down Robinson
- attack the paint

Wander
03-25-2019, 10:24 AM
I think this is a good matchup for Duke

Me too. I'm scared about teams following the UCF strategy and intentionally leaving Tre unguarded for perimeter shots, but I don't think VT has the roster to pull that off in the way that potentially LSU would in the Elite 8.

Jeffrey
03-25-2019, 10:24 AM
It will be interesting to see how well VT fans will travel

They travel well and party hard.

DarkstarWahoo
03-25-2019, 10:28 AM
Do it for America, Duke. Knock them out. Let Buzz get a head start on his move to College Station.

With the game in DC, there will be plenty of Hokies around. Northern VA is lousy with them.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-25-2019, 10:30 AM
I'm not sure why everyone is assuming the crowd is going to be so pro-Hokie. I mean, most neutral courts are somewhat anti-Duke, but Google maps shows me that Durham is ten minutes closer to DC than Blacksburg. I don't see that it will be a huge benefit to them.

hallcity
03-25-2019, 10:30 AM
It will be interesting to see how well VT fans will travel - Blacksburg is about an hour closer to DC than Durham. The good news is that we should see way less annoying UNC fans there just to root against Duke.


There are a lot of Duke alums in the DC area. I hope they show up in big numbers. If you haven't seen Zion in person, you should. He's even more incredible in person than he seems on TV.

GoDuke2015
03-25-2019, 10:31 AM
Second weekend. The quality of opponents from here on out will be top-10 caliber teams. Nothing easy left on our schedule. Time to get to work.

Va Tech is an extremely well-coached squad that is in transition style-wise. Buzz Williams is starting to get a team that fits his style, though, and it wasn't like Va Tech wasn't already a pugnacious bunch. Williams believes strongly in positionless bball. His Marquette teams were stacked with 6'6"-6'7" guys with tons of strength, athleticism, and versatility (picture Jimmy Butler), and he's moving that way with the Hokies as well. The Hokies are an elite offensive team and a pretty darn good defensive team as well. They aren't nearly as good offensively if their PG is out, though. They shoot extremely well from 3, but are also really efficient from 2pt range and the FT line as well. They play a matchup-zone defense along with an occasional zone press, forcing a lot of turnovers while not fouling much. They use a bunch of interchangeable parts with one big and one or two smalls, and everyone else playing all over the place. They congest the lane, and allow more three point attempts than just about anyone. I would imagine that gameplan doesn't change against us. They grind out possessions at a nearly-UVa rate, and I'd imagine that to continue in this one too as they don't want to let us get easy buckets in transition. On offense, they move a ton, hit 3s, and pass well from multiple spots on the floor. It's a tough, tough team.

Centers: The Hokies pretty much have only one - Kerry Blackshear, Jr (6'10", 240lb redshirt junior). Blackshear has become a stud for the Hokies. He isn't overly physical, but he's an extremely capable scorer both in the paint and from 3. He'll be a handful. He rebounds well on both ends, especially on offense. He also is a not-awful shotblocker, though he's not elite at it. He's a terrific passer out of the high post too. Blackshear will play as much as he possibly can, because the Hokies really have no plan B inside. He smashed us in Blacksburg, but I'd like to see what he can do with Zion on the floor.

Forwards: The Hokies don't really have any of these.

Wings: There are a bunch of guys to talk about here. Alexander-Walker is of course the star. He is a smooth player but not at all explosive, stylistically not unlike Reddish (more polished but not as quick or nearly as long). He is a smart positional defender who reads the passing lanes well and collects a lot of steals. But he isnít a lockdown on-ball defender. The Hokies have a pair of vets starting alongside him in Ty Outlaw (6í6Ē, 220lb sixth-year senior via UNC-G and Lee College) and Ahmed Hill (6í5Ē, 210lb fifth-year senior). Outlaw was a superb high school athlete who has transferred twice (once to a JuCo), missed a season to a heart condition and missed another due to a torn ACL. Hill missed all of the 2016 season with a partially torn patella tendon. He is a solid, versatile defender and a good perimeter shooter. He's also a terrific athlete. The third option is PJ Horne (6'5", 230lb sophomore). Horne is another rugged, athletic forward that is a junk yard dog. He's not nearly as good a perimeter shooter as his wing partners, but he's a relentless offensive rebounder and a good scorer around the basket. All 3 of these guys embody the type of versatile, physical wings that Williams loves. They essentially play forward, even though their skill sets and height are more winglike. Last but not least on the wings is Isaiah Wilkins (6'3", 230lb freshman). If the name sounds familiar, it should: he shares the same name (and spelling) as UVa's former defensive stalwart. They don't appear to be related. Wilkins is a fire hydrant of a wing. He's not overly athletic, but he can really shoot, and he doesn't mind banging inside either.

Guards: The Hokies have a stud PG in Justin Robinson (6'2", 195lb senior) recently returning from a serious toe injury. He's the playmaker, senior leader, and sparkplug of the offense. Robinson does it all as a scorer, much like Alexander-Walker. He's a true PG, but also a terrific scoring threat off-ball. He is super-efficient both inside the arc and outside the arc, and loves attacking off the dribble. And defensively Robinson gets a lot of steals as well. When he's healthy, he and Alexander-Walker make for a dynamite duo. Behind Robinson is Wabissa Bede (6'1", 195lb sophomore). Bede is kind of like Tyler Thornton: a shorter, stout, not overly athletic, but crafty and high-IQ style player. He is a coach's dream of a role player, but athletically he's pretty limited. Lastly, Jonathan Kabongo (6'4", 180lb freshman from Canada) fills out the squad. Kabongo is the younger brother of former high-level recruit and Texas PG Myck Kabongo. Jonathan is not nearly the prospect that Myck was, but physically the similarities are striking. He likely won't play at all now that Robinson is back.

I would expect Jones to guard Robinson and Reddish will get Alexander-Walker. I'll be looking forward to seeing Jones try to lock down another elite ACC guard. Blackshear creates a problem for us, because he's too quick for Bolden but too strong/skilled for DeLaurier. I do like, though, that they don't have any size, which should allow us to play smaller more often with Barrett as the de facto PF and Zion at C. I hope White gets back in the mix, as his physicality might play well in this one.


Great scouting report, as always. Hopefully Bolden will get more rest/practice this week and be able to play more minutes.

budwom
03-25-2019, 10:31 AM
Do it for America, Duke. Knock them out. Let Buzz get a head start on his move to College Station.

With the game in DC, there will be plenty of Hokies around. Northern VA is lousy with them.

yeah, I've read some odd notions about how far Blacksburg is, which is pretty irrelevant...

DavidBenAkiva
03-25-2019, 10:33 AM
When I saw the East bracket, I circled VA Tech as a team I was both excited to see and a bit concerned. First and foremost, this is a chance at revenge. Duke lost to Tech late in the season in Blacksburg. At the time, both teams were dealing with significant injuries. Zion is back and better than ever for Duke. Justin Robinson has also returned for the Hokies after missing about 2 months.

Interestingly, Buzz Williams has brought Robinson off the bench so far in the 2 tournament games. He played 29 minutes against Liberty and 28 in the first round matchup with Saint Louis. I would not be surprised to see Robinson start in place of sophomore guard Wabissa Bede on Friday night.

This Tech team has a lot of weapons, enough to cause serious issues for Duke. Kerry Blackshear is a beast in the paint. They surround him with a ton of talented, experienced players. Nickiel Alexander-Walker is a really good, although he has cooled off a lot since his hot start to the season. The three seniors - Robinson, Ty Outlaw, and Ahmed Hill - are all excellent shooters and play excellent defense. Where they are weak is in blocking shots and depth. There is no depth. Their top 5 players are as good as any starting lineup in the nation. After that, there's nothing. No one, outside of Blackshear, has any size or post ability. Their are a mediocre rebounding team, which should be a huge Duke advantage.

Zion presents a huge matchup problem for them. He, along with Barrett, will be able to get into the lane and attack the rim frequently. If Duke can get one or two of their top 5 players in foul trouble, it will present a significant matchup advantage. Blackshear, in particular, needs to stay out of foul trouble.

On the other end of the court, Duke needs to value the ball. Limit turnovers. The Hokies love to steal the ball and score in transition. And Duke is going to have to make a few shots. Hopefully, the 3-point shooting we are seeing from Cam and Zion in the tournament so far can keep going for another game (or more!). And limiting open looks from 3 is going to be huge. This Virginia Tech team can get hot from 3. They have made 39.5% of their 3's on the season, 8th best in the nation.

It's going to be a heck of a matchup. Hopefully, Duke can press its advantages and limit the number of open looks. If they win, the Blue Devils will have defeated every ACC team this season. That would be a heck of an accomplishment. Let's go Duke!

GoDuke2015
03-25-2019, 10:34 AM
I'm not sure why everyone is assuming the crowd is going to be so pro-Hokie. I mean, most neutral courts are somewhat anti-Duke, but Google maps shows me that Durham is ten minutes closer to DC than Blacksburg. I don't see that it will be a huge benefit to them.


I think its just the larger, public school factor (more graduates each year and fans that grew up in VA but didn't go to college in the state). Also, I guess people are assuming VA grads staying in the state, region while Duke grads dispersed around the country?

Regardless, hoping that Duke fans show up in big numbers!!

flyingdutchdevil
03-25-2019, 10:37 AM
Me too. I'm scared about teams following the UCF strategy and intentionally leaving Tre unguarded for perimeter shots, but I don't think VT has the roster to pull that off in the way that potentially LSU would in the Elite 8.

Oh, they will try that for sure.

The question is whether Tre bites or whether he moves the ball around. I will be really, really disappointed if he bites. The coaching staff needs to realize that Tre is a horrendous outside shooter. For someone reason, I don't think they do...

Ballboy1998
03-25-2019, 10:37 AM
There are a lot of Duke alums in the DC area. I hope they show up in big numbers. If you haven't seen Zion in person, you should. He's even more incredible in person than he seems on TV.

As one of those Duke alums in DC, I've got my tickets and will do my part to drown out the many tech fans. LGD!

CDu
03-25-2019, 10:38 AM
One thing I like about this game (aside from it not being in Blacksburg) is that we have the Zion advantage. The Hokies haven't had the "fortune" of seeing Zion's combination of physicality/agility/skill before. That should hopefully play to our advantage. I like the idea of him getting the chance to go at Blackshear inside early to try to draw some fouls. If Blackshear contests, he's likely to foul. If he doesn't, it's easy points for Duke. Zion is such a difference maker out there.

I'll feel even better about things if Jack White is back, because I think White allows us more defensive versatility against a team that requires a ton of discipline and versatility from your defense.

But relatively speaking, I like that we're facing a team that we've seen before but who hasn't seen us at anywhere near full strength.

Here's hoping that we play much better defense than we did yesterday.

IrishDevil
03-25-2019, 10:43 AM
I'm not sure why everyone is assuming the crowd is going to be so pro-Hokie. I mean, most neutral courts are somewhat anti-Duke, but Google maps shows me that Durham is ten minutes closer to DC than Blacksburg. I don't see that it will be a huge benefit to them.


I think its just the larger, public school factor (more graduates each year and fans that grew up in VA but didn't go to college in the state). Also, I guess people are assuming VA grads staying in the state, region while Duke grads dispersed around the country?

Regardless, hoping that Duke fans show up in big numbers!!

This will be my first Duke game in DC, so I have no prior experience to draw on re: the Duke side of things, but I can tell you that, having lived in the Virginia suburbs of DC for 20+ years, VT has a large alumni base in the area and plenty of students from the area attend VT. It would not surprise me in the least for this to feel like a road game. Frankly, if enough Maryland fans bought tickets hoping for a victory against LSU, I would not put it past them to attend to take in the Zion show, but root against Duke. I expect Friday's crowd to be hostile.

uh_no
03-25-2019, 10:49 AM
this is the next stage of the zion revenge rampage tour. followed by gonzaga in the FF. we're not losing this game.

DUKIE V(A)
03-25-2019, 10:51 AM
I'm not sure why everyone is assuming the crowd is going to be so pro-Hokie. I mean, most neutral courts are somewhat anti-Duke, but Google maps shows me that Durham is ten minutes closer to DC than Blacksburg. I don't see that it will be a huge benefit to them.

Duke fans travel well and there is certainly a large contingent of Duke Alums in the DC area (myself included), but it seems that every other person I know in Northern Virginia has a close connection to VATech. Thankfully, Maryland did not advance -- which should help tamp down the anti-Dukeness of the crowd and make tickets somewhat easier to get.

arnie
03-25-2019, 11:18 AM
this is the next stage of the zion revenge rampage tour. followed by gonzaga in the FF. we're not losing this game.

Wish I shared your confidence. 😐. I see it a toss up.

Bike4Fun
03-25-2019, 11:23 AM
They do shoot 3's statistically better than us on the season. Taking a team approach and looking at game by game

Duke 31.5%; 95% Confidence 28.0-35.2%
VirginiaTech 40.2%; 95% Confidence 36.4-44.1%

Notes: Neither team is statistically that variable from game to game.
When looking at an analysis by players, they have a lot less variability in 3pt% than we do, meaning any of them could go off. That's a little scary

IF we both shoot our team average, then if we each took about twelve 3's, they'd only make 1 more than us. That's manageable.
IF we hit at the lower end they hit their upper 43.2, then for every 6 taken by each, they'll make 1 more.
IF we hit worse than our lower end and/or they go higher, it could hurt.

UrinalCake
03-25-2019, 11:36 AM
There are a lot of Duke alums in the DC area. I hope they show up in big numbers. If you haven't seen Zion in person, you should. He's even more incredible in person than he seems on TV.

Yeah, the arena is not going to be filled with people commuting in from Durham or Blacksburg. It will be filled with alums who live in DC. And Duke has got them way outnumbered in that respect. Agree that MSU and LSU fans will all be rooting for the upset, as youíd expect for any 1 seed.

OldPhiKap
03-25-2019, 11:40 AM
Columbia is a whole lot closer to Durham than Orlando is, but that crowd last night sure wasn't pulling for the royal blue.

Duke should be well-represented in DC, but will still be the minority against fans from all of the other teams rooting against us. It is what it is, every year.

BandAlum83
03-25-2019, 11:40 AM
Not an awful matchup for Duke, considering. But I would have rather had UVA's 4 seed (because they lost) and ended up with Oregon. :-P

Duke - VT only played once, and both teams were missing their best player. Duke was without Zion and VT was without Justin Robinson.

In that game, Barrett and Reddish were solid, as was Bolden. For VT, Kerry Blackshear was a real problem - he had 23 pts, 10 boards. VT won by 5, but Duke was a made Cam Reddish 3 away from tying the game.

I think having Zion back in this game will help negate Blackshear a bit. Zion will be able to guard him one on one when they get matched up and he'll be able to bother shots from the weakside when Blackshear has Bolden/DeLaurier on him. Plus, Zion will help clean up some of the missed shots we gave up to Blackshear.

The question mark will be Justin Robinson. He looked good in his first two games; averaged 11 points and 2 assists, but looked healthy and energetic. Hopefully Tre and Goldwire can wear him down a bit.

VT looked real strong against St. Louis, but a little shakier against Liberty. But in both games, they were at 40%+ from 3.

It will be interesting to see how well VT fans will travel - Blacksburg is about an hour closer to DC than Durham. The good news is that we should see way less annoying UNC fans there just to root against Duke.

Keys to the game, I think:

- Control the glass
- Slow down Blackshear
- run VT off the 3 pt line
- wear down Robinson
- attack the paint

It is definitely a positive that Maryland lost and won't be bringing their fans in. For those who don't realize, College Park Maryland is in suburban DC.

OldPhiKap
03-25-2019, 11:41 AM
It is definitely a positive that Maryland lost and won't be bringing their fans in. For those who don't realize, College Park Maryland is in suburban DC.

Yup, I'll take Hokie fans over Twerps any day of the week.

AGDukesky
03-25-2019, 11:45 AM
Iíll be traveling down from central PA to take my 10 yo son to his first Duke game. Hoping he gets to see Zion play his best game and VT to shoot like it did against UVA this season...

BandAlum83
03-25-2019, 11:45 AM
One thing I like about this game (aside from it not being in Blacksburg) is that we have the Zion advantage. The Hokies haven't had the "fortune" of seeing Zion's combination of physicality/agility/skill before. That should hopefully play to our advantage. I like the idea of him getting the chance to go at Blackshear inside early to try to draw some fouls. If Blackshear contests, he's likely to foul. If he doesn't, it's easy points for Duke. Zion is such a difference maker out there.

I'll feel even better about things if Jack White is back, because I think White allows us more defensive versatility against a team that requires a ton of discipline and versatility from your defense.

But relatively speaking, I like that we're facing a team that we've seen before but who hasn't seen us at anywhere near full strength.

Here's hoping that we play much better defense than we did yesterday.

I think we've consistently seen all year, that fouling Zion doesn't mean a foul will be called on Zion. Indeed, when he scores through contact, it's as though the refs never see the contact.
He should have assuredly had more "and one" opportunities throughout the year.

SavDukeGrad
03-25-2019, 11:46 AM
Yeah, the arena is not going to be filled with people commuting in from Durham or Blacksburg. It will be filled with alums who live in DC. And Duke has got them way outnumbered in that respect. Agree that MSU and LSU fans will all be rooting for the upset, as youíd expect for any 1 seed.

Iím commuting in from Georgia, does that count? My daughter and son-in-law live in DC, so I bought my plane ticket last week, but didnít tell anyone because I didnít want to jinx the team! Go Duke!

COYS
03-25-2019, 11:48 AM
I'm excited about this match-up, even though I think VaTech matches up pretty well with Duke. This is not intended in any way to make excuses for Duke, but it really isn't easy matching opponent's intensity when every game they play against Duke is the biggest game of the year. In addition to Dawkins ridiculous shooting, yesterday, it simply took a lot of mental effort for Duke to match the intensity with which UCF played, and I think that was a slight advantage for UCF. With VaTech, that won't be an issue. The whole team will want revenge for the loss in Blacksburg. Zion will be champing at the bit to show the Hokies what he's capable of.

In addition, even though it gave everyone of us a heart attack, Dawkins' torrid night shooting against Duke in the R32 match-up is a wake-up call for facing the Hokies. The Hokies have a lot of guys who can space the floor. Cam, RJ, and Tre will need to pay extra attention to detail so that no one on VaTech is allowed to get as hot as Dawkins. The last time Duke had such a poor defensive performance, the team followed it up by absolutely dismantling Miami. The Hokies are obvious much better than the Hurricanes, but I expect Duke to come out with a renewed focus on defense. The Hokies are good enough that they can even put up points against a solid defense, but I think Duke will make it tougher for them than UCF last night or the Hokies in the last game in Blacksburg.

Finally, the staff will replace a lot of Cam's touches with Zion. The last time these two teams matched up, Cam had 5 turnovers. Give fewer possessions to Cam, give more possessions to Zion and Duke's offense looks a lot more deadly. In addition, VaTech was able to play Blackshear a full 40 minutes. I think Zion puts more defensive pressure on Blackshear, either forcing him to foul Zion and (hopefully) sit out for long stretches of the game or essentially allowing Zion to get his points so as to avoid foul trouble. The last time these teams played, we just couldn't force Blackshear to play out of his comfort zone on defense. The re-match will be a different story.

VaTech has a lot of shooters that can get hot from outside. Blackshear is a force inside (and one of my favorite non-Dukie ACC players). But they haven't seen Zion. As worried as some on the boards are about VaTech packing it in like UCF did, it's worth noting that we had a good offensive game, yesterday. Aubrey Dawkins torching our defense is the reason the game was so close. Without someone as unique as Tacko Fall to stand under the rim, I don't think VaTech can afford to give up so much space on the perimeter and allow Zion and RJ to run at the basket with a head of steam. I'm not sure any other team in the country could defend us the way UCF did. It's not going to be easy, but Duke is going to come out focused. And Zion is going to make sure he gets his revenge.

UrinalCake
03-25-2019, 11:49 AM
Iím commuting in from Georgia, does that count? My daughter and son-in-law live in DC, so I bought my plane ticket last week, but didnít tell anyone because I didnít want to jinx the team! Go Duke!

What I meant was that a.) the majority of the fans will be local and b.) only a small part of the Duke fan base actually lives in Durham. So measuring how far the campuses are from the arena isn't all that meaningful. Since two out of three people in your group are local to DC, your example supports my point. Enjoy the game(s)! It should be a blast and hopefully we make it through.

BandAlum83
03-25-2019, 11:51 AM
This will be my first Duke game in DC, so I have no prior experience to draw on re: the Duke side of things, but I can tell you that, having lived in the Virginia suburbs of DC for 20+ years, VT has a large alumni base in the area and plenty of students from the area attend VT. It would not surprise me in the least for this to feel like a road game. Frankly, if enough Maryland fans bought tickets hoping for a victory against LSU, I would not put it past them to attend to take in the Zion show, but root against Duke. I expect Friday's crowd to be hostile.

Totally cynical viewpoint here having lived in the DC area and married to a Terp (who now roots for Duke): Maryland fans are too cheap and too much of fair weather fans to spend the money to see someone else's team or admit Duke has a generational talent on their roster.

They will sell the tickets, buy beer and throw a party. They might put up a banner (hand painted on a sheet) that reads F%$& you Duke (with the wankered spelling).

50/50 odds the party will get out of control, a fight will break out, and the cops will be called.

flyingdutchdevil
03-25-2019, 11:51 AM
this is the next stage of the zion revenge rampage tour. followed by gonzaga in the FF. we're not losing this game.

Hahahahahaha! I was literally thinking the exact same thing, although I called it the "Duke Revenge Tour" (your title is better).

I want VT and the Zags to get the title.

flyingdutchdevil
03-25-2019, 11:54 AM
I'm excited about this match-up, even though I think VaTech matches up pretty well with Duke. This is not intended in any way to make excuses for Duke, but it really isn't easy matching opponent's intensity when every game they play against Duke is the biggest game of the year. In addition to Dawkins ridiculous shooting, yesterday, it simply took a lot of mental effort for Duke to match the intensity with which UCF played, and I think that was a slight advantage for UCF. With VaTech, that won't be an issue. The whole team will want revenge for the loss in Blacksburg. Zion will be champing at the bit to show the Hokies what he's capable of.

In addition, even though it gave everyone of us a heart attack, Dawkins' torrid night shooting against Duke in the R32 match-up is a wake-up call for facing the Hokies. The Hokies have a lot of guys who can space the floor. Cam, RJ, and Tre will need to pay extra attention to detail so that no one on VaTech is allowed to get as hot as Dawkins. The last time Duke had such a poor defensive performance, the team followed it up by absolutely dismantling Miami. The Hokies are obvious much better than the Hurricanes, but I expect Duke to come out with a renewed focus on defense. The Hokies are good enough that they can even put up points against a solid defense, but I think Duke will make it tougher for them than UCF last night or the Hokies in the last game in Blacksburg.

Finally, the staff will replace a lot of Cam's touches with Zion. The last time these two teams matched up, Cam had 5 turnovers. Give fewer possessions to Cam, give more possessions to Zion and Duke's offense looks a lot more deadly. In addition, VaTech was able to play Blackshear a full 40 minutes. I think Zion puts more defensive pressure on Blackshear, either forcing him to foul Zion and (hopefully) sit out for long stretches of the game or essentially allowing Zion to get his points so as to avoid foul trouble. The last time these teams played, we just couldn't force Blackshear to play out of his comfort zone on defense. The re-match will be a different story.

VaTech has a lot of shooters that can get hot from outside. Blackshear is a force inside (and one of my favorite non-Dukie ACC players). But they haven't seen Zion. As worried as some on the boards are about VaTech packing it in like UCF did, it's worth noting that we had a good offensive game, yesterday. Aubrey Dawkins torching our defense is the reason the game was so close. Without someone as unique as Tacko Fall to stand under the rim, I don't think VaTech can afford to give up so much space on the perimeter and allow Zion and RJ to run at the basket with a head of steam. I'm not sure any other team in the country could defend us the way UCF did. It's not going to be easy, but Duke is going to come out focused. And Zion is going to make sure he gets his revenge.

I have to disagree with the bolded part. Yes- this is the biggest game for any team. But it's also the biggest game for Duke, because their season ends (and college careers of Zion, RJ, and Cam...and possibly more). If we can't match the opposing team's intensity, that's on the players and the coaching staff. If this were the regular season, I'd happily give Duke a pass. But this is a season-ending tournament. You better play with 100% intensity.

MChambers
03-25-2019, 11:56 AM
Yeah, the arena is not going to be filled with people commuting in from Durham or Blacksburg. It will be filled with alums who live in DC. And Duke has got them way outnumbered in that respect. Agree that MSU and LSU fans will all be rooting for the upset, as youíd expect for any 1 seed.

I think there will be a lot of Duke blue in DC. I'm going with my son, who is primarily an MSU fan, but certainly roots for Duke when they aren't playing the Spartans. We'll each have two shirts Friday, the first green and the second blue. (We're not planning to go Sunday, for family reasons.)

sagegrouse
03-25-2019, 11:57 AM
This will be my first Duke game in DC, so I have no prior experience to draw on re: the Duke side of things, but I can tell you that, having lived in the Virginia suburbs of DC for 20+ years, VT has a large alumni base in the area and plenty of students from the area attend VT. It would not surprise me in the least for this to feel like a road game. Frankly, if enough Maryland fans bought tickets hoping for a victory against LSU, I would not put it past them to attend to take in the Zion show, but root against Duke. I expect Friday's crowd to be hostile.

Duke will be well represented, if past ACC tournaments are any example. There could be more VT fans -- but Duke basketball fans are really vocal. Regional finals, if we survive, should have good Duke support.

Kindly,
Sage
'Heck, I was at the Duke-Notre Dame football game in 2016, and we had 2,000 fans among 80,000. We made so much noise during our comeback victory we filled the stadium with "Let's go, Duke!!"'

ChicagoCrazy84
03-25-2019, 11:59 AM
Really hoping to see a few things. 1) Tre stop shooting and instead try penetrating and moving the ball around. 2) A few minutes for AOC see if he can provide a spark from outside 3) Cam Reddish to stop driving when nothing is there and getting charges drawn on him.

DukieInKansas
03-25-2019, 12:00 PM
Hahahahahaha! I was literally thinking the exact same thing, although I called it the "Duke Revenge Tour" (your title is better).

I want Duke to take out VT and the Zags to get the title.

FIFY - I'm assuming you want Duke to win it all and to avenge 2 prior losses.

Wahoo2000
03-25-2019, 12:04 PM
Yeah, the arena is not going to be filled with people commuting in from Durham or Blacksburg. It will be filled with alums who live in DC. And Duke has got them way outnumbered in that respect. Agree that MSU and LSU fans will all be rooting for the upset, as youíd expect for any 1 seed.

VT has a pretty big enrollment, and just under 50% of the instate kids who attend come from greater Northern Va area (prob about 2,200 per year). Further, Maryland is the #1 school for out-of-state kids. I don't have the exact stats, but I'd imagine a good number area from the DC metro area on the MD side make up most of that.

I would assume VT has many, MANY more alums in the greater DC area than Duke. The question for me is rather, which school has more alums in the area that care about bball? Duke might have them there.

I'm actually interested to see the environment/crowd for this game.

flyingdutchdevil
03-25-2019, 12:05 PM
FIFY - I'm assuming you want Duke to win it all and to avenge 2 prior losses.

No. Just avenge our losses. ;)

Absolutely I want Duke to win it all. And I'm optimistic that we will.

DarkstarWahoo
03-25-2019, 12:06 PM
Yeah, the arena is not going to be filled with people commuting in from Durham or Blacksburg. It will be filled with alums who live in DC. And Duke has got them way outnumbered in that respect.

I donít know how accurate the numbers Iím about to cite are, but I feel pretty confident the bolded statement is inaccurate. The VT website says there are 55,000 VT alumni living in the DC area. The Duke website says there are 12,500 Duke alums living in the area. I donít know how each school defines the metro area, but thatís a massive disparity.

Duke may well have more alumni living in the District proper than VT. But VT is a huge state school required to fill a certain percentage of its class each year with Virginians, and NOVA is both the stateís biggest population center and its most educated. I canít back this up, but it wouldnít surprise me if VT enrolls as many students from Fairfax and Loudoun counties each year as Duke enrolls total students.

UrinalCake
03-25-2019, 12:06 PM
Really hoping to see a few things. 1) Tre stop shooting and instead try penetrating and moving the ball around. 2) A few minutes for AOC see if he can provide a spark from outside 3) Cam Reddish to stop driving when nothing is there and getting charges drawn on him.

I mentioned this in the post-game thread, but would it make sense to take Tre out of the game for a few minutes and run a lineup with multiple shooters around Zion? I'm not saying to bench the guy, I'm saying maybe don't play him the full 40 every single game, give him a breather and show a different look to our opponents where they can't just sag off on the perimeter. We showed in the first UVA game that our defense can still be effective without Tre. We don't have as much one on one ball pressure up top, but we can switch everything and take away the threes which is VT's biggest strength. RJ is more than capable of dribbling the ball down the court. K seems to have this fear that if Tre sits for a minute then our team will fall apart, and I don't think that's the case. Now Zion is another story.

dalmatians98
03-25-2019, 12:15 PM
Do it for America, Duke. Knock them out. Let Buzz get a head start on his move to College Station.

With the game in DC, there will be plenty of Hokies around. Northern VA is lousy with them.

One more reason to dislike NoVa.

COYS
03-25-2019, 12:16 PM
I have to disagree with the bolded part. Yes- this is the biggest game for any team. But it's also the biggest game for Duke, because their season ends (and college careers of Zion, RJ, and Cam...and possibly more). If we can't match the opposing team's intensity, that's on the players and the coaching staff. If this were the regular season, I'd happily give Duke a pass. But this is a season-ending tournament. You better play with 100% intensity.

We probably won't come to a consensus on this since there's no way to measure intensity, objectively. That said, I don't think it's a zero-sum game. Duke, Zion, and the rest of the guys can come out with intensity, and UCF can still have a little bit more. They have all the same reasons to fight, claw, and scrap for victory that Duke has with the added bonus of having zero pressure to win. Also, it's simply impossible for any team to be their most intense every single game of a (hopefully) 40-game season. Even in a single elimination tournament, it's impossible for a team to have 100% intensity for six games. I can probably think of more examples if I gave it more time, but the first part of the FF game against Maryland in '01 and stretches of the championship game against Butler in '10 come to mind, immediately. Obviously, the '15 team was an underdog against Wisconsin, but there were definitely stretches of that game where our guys didn't quite seem as intensely focused.

I think Duke came out with intensity last night, but perhaps because of youth, inexperience, or the aforementioned reasons, Duke seemed to be at 95% and UCF was at 100%. Luckily, they found a way to ratchet that up during key stretches and did just enough to get the victory.

And hey, I could just be using the term "intensity" as a substitute for "playing well," which is a bit easier to measure.

Wahoo2000
03-25-2019, 12:19 PM
Me too. I'm scared about teams following the UCF strategy and intentionally leaving Tre unguarded for perimeter shots, but I don't think VT has the roster to pull that off in the way that potentially LSU would in the Elite 8.

Buzz has really embraced the defense this year, to the point that I don't *think* he'll try a *gimmick* defense. Still, I don't see how they don't have the roster for it. Leave whichever perimeter player is the worst 3pt shooter totally unguarded, and plant Blackshear in the middle of the lane right at the basket and tell him to use the verticality rule to his advantage. Jump straight up, keep your arms straight up, and it's not a foul. Let the perimeter players apply pressure on the outside, and when they get beat on the bounce, attempt to "funnel" the driver (stay on one hip) as they move towards the rim so they can't change direction. Makes it a lot easier for Blackshear to contest without fouling. This strategy has the additional bonus of allowing Blackshear to not be very active/spend much energy on the defensive end, and therefore probably play a lot more minutes than normal.

Still, I don't really expect VT will implement that strategy. However, on the off-chance that they do, I'm sure K will spend some time preparing this week. I'd guess he will counter and attack that by having the unguarded player set lots of ball screens in space. With nobody guarding the screener, the ballhandler should get a TON of room coming off of ball screens. If it's Reddish or Barrett, they'll be able to get relatively wiiiide open 15ish footers at will (which I think they can connect on a very high percentage of), and if it's Zion he gets an unfettered head of steam turning the corner off that screen and moving downhill. Totally possible that Jones and Goldwire get bit of practice time setting screens this week, IMO. The other option would be to tell those guys to fire away from 3, or from 18 feet and try to make them pay for leaving you open, and I just don't think K will go that route.

MrPoon
03-25-2019, 12:21 PM
I sound like Iím in the minority here but I hoped to get this game. V Tech is always tough at home. But they got Duke at the end of a very difficult six game stretch and without Zion. Their motion on offense created a lot of switchs with Blackshear on Bolden or Javin.

Non of those factors work for them. Duke will be prepared with several days of planning. Of course Z is back and this wonít be a road game. This is a good team to be sure and will require full effort and execution.

However outside of beating a Zion-less Duke, they have beaten two ranked teams all year; NCState team in early Feb (the game where NC State scored 24) and Purdue in Nov. That is it for ranked wins. Three total. True Robinson is a very good player but bringing a player like that back has risks... as we know. I like the line at 8 and would consider it higher. To me they got the unweighted ACC schedule that makes them look a little better. Duke and UNC once each which may explain why they are a four seed. I know many thought they were a three.

WHOneedsSOX
03-25-2019, 12:24 PM
Buzz has really embraced the defense this year, to the point that I don't *think* he'll try a *gimmick* defense. Still, I don't see how they don't have the roster for it. Leave whichever perimeter player is the worst 3pt shooter totally unguarded, and plant Blackshear in the middle of the lane right at the basket and tell him to use the verticality rule to his advantage. Jump straight up, keep your arms straight up, and it's not a foul. Let the perimeter players apply pressure on the outside, and when they get beat on the bounce, attempt to "funnel" the driver (stay on one hip) as they move towards the rim so they can't change direction. Makes it a lot easier for Blackshear to contest without fouling. This strategy has the additional bonus of allowing Blackshear to not be very active/spend much energy on the defensive end, and therefore probably play a lot more minutes than normal.

Still, I don't really expect VT will implement that strategy. However, on the off-chance that they do, I'm sure K will spend some time preparing this week. I'd guess he will counter and attack that by having the unguarded player set lots of ball screens in space. With nobody guarding the screener, the ballhandler should get a TON of room coming off of ball screens. If it's Reddish or Barrett, they'll be able to get relatively wiiiide open 15ish footers at will (which I think they can connect on a very high percentage of), and if it's Zion he gets an unfettered head of steam turning the corner off that screen and moving downhill. Totally possible that Jones and Goldwire get bit of practice time setting screens this week, IMO. The other option would be to tell those guys to fire away from 3, or from 18 feet and try to make them pay for leaving you open, and I just don't think K will go that route.

I haven't watched VT enough to know if they switch defense regularly during games but I imagine they'll throw a bunch of different looks at Duke to see which works best. Even Coach K does that these days.

OldPhiKap
03-25-2019, 12:28 PM
'Heck, I was at the Duke-Notre Dame football game in 2016, and we had 2,000 fans among 80,000. We made so much noise during our comeback victory we filled the stadium with "Let's go, Duke!!"'

I think that was about the time the cops dragged me out. They were not a fan of the "Eat Me" cake costume apparently, and by now I've forgotten why I was wearing it.

On Friday, the other factor is that the fans of the first game will mainly be rooting against us hard. The winner because they don't want to play us, and the loser because they want the upset. So at best we will have about a third of the stadium pulling for us. IF if if we are lucky enough to advance to Sunday, I would expect us to outdraw Michigan State or LSU fans in DC although LSU fans are off the chain crazy.

CDu
03-25-2019, 12:33 PM
Buzz has really embraced the defense this year, to the point that I don't *think* he'll try a *gimmick* defense. Still, I don't see how they don't have the roster for it. Leave whichever perimeter player is the worst 3pt shooter totally unguarded, and plant Blackshear in the middle of the lane right at the basket and tell him to use the verticality rule to his advantage. Jump straight up, keep your arms straight up, and it's not a foul. Let the perimeter players apply pressure on the outside, and when they get beat on the bounce, attempt to "funnel" the driver (stay on one hip) as they move towards the rim so they can't change direction. Makes it a lot easier for Blackshear to contest without fouling. This strategy has the additional bonus of allowing Blackshear to not be very active/spend much energy on the defensive end, and therefore probably play a lot more minutes than normal.

I think the key is that the Hokies don't have the size to contend with Zion in the air with that strategy. For example, look what Zion did against Chad Brown (a 6'9", 245lb really athletic and springy big) on a lob yesterday. Zion cleared him by at least 6 inches to pull down the lob and dunk. Zion is just so explosive that it's hard to contain him, even if you sag your defense down with the idea of preventing baskets. Also, if you aren't familiar with how quick he is, you may get caught with him catching the ball at the free throw line and scoring at the rim. UCF gave Zion just enough trouble because Fall was SOOOO tall, and because Fall was allowed to foul uncalled on a few key occasions.

I'd also expect Duke to come up with a few wrinkles this week in case anyone DOES try to replicate that defense. Something involving using Jones as a screener for Zion's man or Barrett's man to free them up for drives.

Wahoo2000
03-25-2019, 12:37 PM
I think that was about the time the cops dragged me out. They were not a fan of the "Eat Me" cake costume apparently, and by now I've forgotten why I was wearing it.

On Friday, the other factor is that the fans of the first game will mainly be rooting against us hard. The winner because they don't want to play us, and the loser because they want the upset. So at best we will have about a third of the stadium pulling for us. IF if if we are lucky enough to advance to Sunday, I would expect us to outdraw Michigan State or LSU fans in DC although LSU fans are off the chain crazy.

I actually have a good buddy from Baton Rouge that went to LSU, and can totally confirm the bolded portion. He likes his school but acknowledges that a majority of the fanbase are trash that don't care about cheating one bit if it means they are winning (cue someone highlighting that last sentence in a joke reference to UNC).

Totally evident lack of class/sportsmanship in the (sadly unsurprising and near unanimous) "Free Will Wade" chants and excessive booing of their AD a few games back.

jacone21
03-25-2019, 12:40 PM
Buzz has really embraced the defense this year, to the point that I don't *think* he'll try a *gimmick* defense. Still, I don't see how they don't have the roster for it. Leave whichever perimeter player is the worst 3pt shooter totally unguarded, and plant Blackshear in the middle of the lane right at the basket and tell him to use the verticality rule to his advantage. Jump straight up, keep your arms straight up, and it's not a foul. Let the perimeter players apply pressure on the outside, and when they get beat on the bounce, attempt to "funnel" the driver (stay on one hip) as they move towards the rim so they can't change direction. Makes it a lot easier for Blackshear to contest without fouling. This strategy has the additional bonus of allowing Blackshear to not be very active/spend much energy on the defensive end, and therefore probably play a lot more minutes than normal.

Still, I don't really expect VT will implement that strategy. However, on the off-chance that they do, I'm sure K will spend some time preparing this week. I'd guess he will counter and attack that by having the unguarded player set lots of ball screens in space. With nobody guarding the screener, the ballhandler should get a TON of room coming off of ball screens. If it's Reddish or Barrett, they'll be able to get relatively wiiiide open 15ish footers at will (which I think they can connect on a very high percentage of), and if it's Zion he gets an unfettered head of steam turning the corner off that screen and moving downhill. Totally possible that Jones and Goldwire get bit of practice time setting screens this week, IMO. The other option would be to tell those guys to fire away from 3, or from 18 feet and try to make them pay for leaving you open, and I just don't think K will go that route.

I like this idea... a way to turn the tables and use that space to Duke's advantage. I like actually making the 3s better, but if they're not falling, try something different.

jv001
03-25-2019, 12:41 PM
I'm looking for Duke to come out focused and really fired up for VT. The close win may in fact help them come out this way. As some have touched on, Duke will have the revenge factor going for them and we've been pretty good at getting that revenge so far this season. Plus we'll have the best college basketball player in the game this time. I think Blackshear is a very good player, but he hasn't played a big as good as Zion. As for the game itself, I'm in the camp of those who say Tre shouldn't shoot 8 threes in a game. Well if he's made 7 in a row, go ahead and go for 8 in a row. I thought Cam played a very good game but foul trouble kept the game close. We need his defense and shooting the three going forward. I look for Duke to come out hitting on all cylinders and we don't look back. GoDuke!

Troublemaker
03-25-2019, 12:43 PM
VT has a pretty big enrollment, and just under 50% of the instate kids who attend come from greater Northern Va area (prob about 2,200 per year). Further, Maryland is the #1 school for out-of-state kids. I don't have the exact stats, but I'd imagine a good number area from the DC metro area on the MD side make up most of that.

I would assume VT has many, MANY more alums in the greater DC area than Duke. The question for me is rather, which school has more alums in the area that care about bball? Duke might have them there.

I'm actually interested to see the environment/crowd for this game.

Everyone, even VT, cares about playing Duke in basketball, though. Particularly this Duke team. The arena will have lots of Hokies.



I mentioned this in the post-game thread, but would it make sense to take Tre out of the game for a few minutes and run a lineup with multiple shooters around Zion? I'm not saying to bench the guy, I'm saying maybe don't play him the full 40 every single game, give him a breather and show a different look to our opponents where they can't just sag off on the perimeter. We showed in the first UVA game that our defense can still be effective without Tre. We don't have as much one on one ball pressure up top, but we can switch everything and take away the threes which is VT's biggest strength. RJ is more than capable of dribbling the ball down the court. K seems to have this fear that if Tre sits for a minute then our team will fall apart, and I don't think that's the case. Now Zion is another story.

I actually thought about it last night because I wanted to see JGold get a shot at guarding Aubrey, but playing two guys that the defense could completely leave was a bit too much.

One other factor is Jack. Jack played 40 minutes in the UVA game you reference where we played without Tre. Hopefully "Jack is back" on Friday and available to soak up some minutes in case we need to sit a starter for a breather or foul trouble or whatever.


We probably won't come to a consensus on this since there's no way to measure intensity, objectively. That said, I don't think it's a zero-sum game. Duke, Zion, and the rest of the guys can come out with intensity, and UCF can still have a little bit more. They have all the same reasons to fight, claw, and scrap for victory that Duke has with the added bonus of having zero pressure to win. Also, it's simply impossible for any team to be their most intense every single game of a (hopefully) 40-game season. Even in a single elimination tournament, it's impossible for a team to have 100% intensity for six games. I can probably think of more examples if I gave it more time, but the first part of the FF game against Maryland in '01 and stretches of the championship game against Butler in '10 come to mind, immediately. Obviously, the '15 team was an underdog against Wisconsin, but there were definitely stretches of that game where our guys didn't quite seem as intensely focused.

I think Duke came out with intensity last night, but perhaps because of youth, inexperience, or the aforementioned reasons, Duke seemed to be at 95% and UCF was at 100%. Luckily, they found a way to ratchet that up during key stretches and did just enough to get the victory.

And hey, I could just be using the term "intensity" as a substitute for "playing well," which is a bit easier to measure.

There probably *was* an energy deficit on Duke's part. The UCF game was Duke's 5th game in 11 days. UCF was only playing their 4th game in 16 days, on the other hand, last night. That seems to be a huge difference to me -- others' mileage may vary.

That said, we're going to now be another week removed from the ACC tourney, with another long break until Friday's game. I think we can get rejuvenated.

If we lose to VaTech, we just probably weren't that good.


Buzz has really embraced the defense this year, to the point that I don't *think* he'll try a *gimmick* defense. Still, I don't see how they don't have the roster for it. Leave whichever perimeter player is the worst 3pt shooter totally unguarded, and plant Blackshear in the middle of the lane right at the basket and tell him to use the verticality rule to his advantage.

Buzz was actually the first coach to use the strategy to an absurd degree: https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/inside-playbook-duke-power-play-trevon-duval/

The strategy goes back to last season (as you'll see if you click on the link) when Duval was the point guard that can't shoot. Buzz repeated the strategy this season with the game in Blacksburg, having defenders leave Tre with impunity to gum up actions elsewhere.

We should definitely be prepared to see it.

Wahoo2000
03-25-2019, 12:49 PM
Buzz was actually the first coach to use the strategy to an absurd degree: https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/inside-playbook-duke-power-play-trevon-duval/

The strategy goes back to last season (as you'll see if you click on the link) when Duval was the point guard that can't shoot. Buzz repeated the strategy this season with the game in Blacksburg, having defenders leave Tre with impunity to gum up actions elsewhere.

We should definitely be prepared to see it.

Bah - must spread some love around, etc. Thanks for that thought and the link. Very interesting. Aside from the UVA/Oregon game (for obvious reasons), this Duke/VT matchup is by FAR the most interesting in my mind. Despite the two teams playing once already, both were missing their undisputed best player (yes, Robinson is significantly better than Blackshear or Walker, though Blackshear may be the most *important* guy for the Hokies given zero depth in the middle).

I'm hoping to just see an amazingly well played and competitive game. Great contrast of styles, teams/coaches that know each other, etc. Just an awesome matchup. I hope you guys don't blow it by coming out and beating them by 30, lol!

WHOneedsSOX
03-25-2019, 01:01 PM
Everyone, even VT, cares about playing Duke in basketball, though. Particularly this Duke team. The arena will have lots of Hokies.




I actually thought about it last night because I wanted to see JGold get a shot at guarding Aubrey, but playing two guys that the defense could completely leave was a bit too much.

One other factor is Jack. Jack played 40 minutes in the UVA game you reference where we played without Tre. Hopefully "Jack is back" on Friday and available to soak up some minutes in case we need to sit a starter for a breather or foul trouble or whatever.



There probably *was* an energy deficit on Duke's part. The UCF game was Duke's 5th game in 11 days. UCF was only playing their 4th game in 16 days, on the other hand, last night. That seems to be a huge difference to me -- others' mileage may vary.

That said, we're going to now be another week removed from the ACC tourney, with another long break until Friday's game. I think we can get rejuvenated.

If we lose to VaTech, we just probably weren't that good.



Buzz was actually the first coach to use the strategy to an absurd degree: https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/inside-playbook-duke-power-play-trevon-duval/

The strategy goes back to last season (as you'll see if you click on the link) when Duval was the point guard that can't shoot. Buzz repeated the strategy this season with the game in Blacksburg, having defenders leave Tre with impunity to gum up actions elsewhere.

We should definitely be prepared to see it.

Great find. Guess we'll see the defenders on DeLaurier/Bolden/Jones/Goldwire not even pay attention to them. Like I said in a different thread though, Jones is a threat for the free throw line jumper as he showed against Syracuse. Duval couldn't really shoot from anywhere. Going to be touch for RJ and Zion to get off clean looks inside.

Man I miss watching Grayson in a Duke jersey.

elvis14
03-25-2019, 01:27 PM
Buzz was actually the first coach to use the strategy to an absurd degree: https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/inside-playbook-duke-power-play-trevon-duval/

The strategy goes back to last season (as you'll see if you click on the link) when Duval was the point guard that can't shoot. Buzz repeated the strategy this season with the game in Blacksburg, having defenders leave Tre with impunity to gum up actions elsewhere.

We should definitely be prepared to see it.

My followup question to this is: did Buzz do what Johnny did and assign his center the task of leaving the PG all along and just hanging out in the lane or did he just use a more normal matchup but give lots of space to the guy who couldn't shoot? I'd much rather have a guard playing off Tre and trying to slow down Zion and RJ than Blackshear. Also, with Fall's incredible size, it was a little hard for Tre to close the 12 feet they were giving him and take some mid-range jumpers. If they are using a more normal sized human basketball player, Tre might be able to make them pay (as long as he realizes not to take the bait and chuck up 3's).

Saratoga2
03-25-2019, 01:34 PM
I have to disagree with the bolded part. Yes- this is the biggest game for any team. But it's also the biggest game for Duke, because their season ends (and college careers of Zion, RJ, and Cam...and possibly more). If we can't match the opposing team's intensity, that's on the players and the coaching staff. If this were the regular season, I'd happily give Duke a pass. But this is a season-ending tournament. You better play with 100% intensity.

I was thinking a similar thought last night. This might be the last couple of minutes we get to see these kids compete. It almost was. The truth is that each game will possibly be this teams last and even if they win it all we only have 4 games left. They have been a pleasure to watch and they will be missed when they move on o the NBA. Looks like 3 or 4 will go.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-25-2019, 01:35 PM
Totally cynical viewpoint here having lived in the DC area and married to a Terp (who now roots for Duke): Maryland fans are too cheap and too much of fair weather fans to spend the money to see someone else's team or admit Duke has a generational talent on their roster.

They will sell the tickets, buy beer and throw a party. They might put up a banner (hand painted on a sheet) that reads F%$& you Duke (with the wankered spelling).

50/50 odds the party will get out of control, a fight will break out, and the cops will be called.

It is a crying shame that I can't spork this. Please, someone else take up my cause.

KandG
03-25-2019, 02:02 PM
Duke may well have more alumni living in the District proper than VT. But VT is a huge state school required to fill a certain percentage of its class each year with Virginians, and NOVA is both the stateís biggest population center and its most educated. I canít back this up, but it wouldnít surprise me if VT enrolls as many students from Fairfax and Loudoun counties each year as Duke enrolls total students.

Yeah, I think the Post indicated in a piece this morning that DC has a huge base of VT alums, so I'd expect them to exceed or at worst match the number of Duke alums at the arena.

I think the Duke contingent will be pretty vocal, but I was at the Texas Tech game at Madison Square Garden in December, and Texas Tech had a surprisingly large number of fans who were considerably louder and more organized in their chanting than the Duke contingent for a lot of the game. This despite New York/New Jersey being home to a large Duke alum base.

I suspect both fanbases will make themselves heard early in the game, but if VT has a lead late in the game, it will feel increasingly like a road game, especially with the fans from the first game rooting against us.

Wahoo2000
03-25-2019, 02:34 PM
It is a crying shame that I can't spork this. Please, someone else take up my cause.

Took care of that for you. Also, really wish this vBulletin board had a crying laughing emoji.

Billy Dat
03-25-2019, 02:41 PM
I looked back through our schedules over recent years and we haven't played the Hokies twice in one season in a long time. They have not been a home-and-away partner in eons, and we only played them twice because of an ACC tournament match-up. I think it's been 6-7 years. I have a lot of respect for Buzz Williams' ability to game plan so I am not willing to say that familiarity is in our favor, save for Zion being more of a force than Justin Robinson. Let's also remember that RJ was battling some kind of illness in the first half of the first game. Once he got his bowels under control, he went off in the second half.

That game was a month ago and Buzz was already on the blueprint of leaving our shooters and helping off RJ and Camwho both had opposite good halves. Tre also didn't have a great game, and it was in that stretch where he seemed kind of beat down and exposed (which is kind of how today feels in terms of his shooting). But, just like it's easy to focus on the UCF game and talk about offense, because most basketball analysis focuses on that end, we lost the first VTech game on D, and we nearly lost last night because of D. In both cases, I remember similar things, namely that our D was good for long stretches but then the other team just started nailing shots in huge spots. The first game against VTech, we also fouled too much early and they were cleaning up at the line. They also got the game completely at their slower pace.

They are a very tough team to defend since everyone can shoot, including Blackshear. Can we defend the 3 point line while also preventing second shots? Can we avoid live ball turnovers while also causing a few ourselves? Can we get a lead and hold it and not have to worry about coming back against that slow pace?

We have lost 3 of 4 to the Hokies, but the pattern has been that we lose to them on the road, often in close games, and throttle them at Cameron. Here's hoping a neutral splits the difference and we win by 10.

Wahoo2000
03-25-2019, 02:42 PM
Another interesting semi-tangent: if you're coaching VT, what "junk" defense would you try to implement and throw out? Maybe a triangle and two? Try put your two quickest and rangiest wings on Reddish and Barrett to deny the ball and/or force catches waaay beyond the 3pt line, and the other 3 guys keep at least one foot in the paint at all times. I'd probably mix that with Blackshear "guarding" Tre (or Goldwire if he enters the game) and never leaving the restricted circle at the basket. That'd be my defensive gameplan, coupled with taking very few risks offensively (extremely low turnover and "bad shot" percentage), and sending only 1-2 guys to the glass on the offensive end to limit transition and easy bucket opportunities.

Last, if Duke is down late, have one guy deny Reddish the ball, and have the rest of the team make a wall around the paint.

tecumseh
03-25-2019, 02:43 PM
I actually have a good buddy from Baton Rouge that went to LSU, and can totally confirm the bolded portion.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203471004577141180847382556

weezie
03-25-2019, 02:47 PM
They travel well and party kind of narsty.



Do it for the ACC, Duke. Knock them out. Let Buzz get a head start on his move to College Station.

With the game in DC, there will be plenty of Hokies around. Boondocks VA is lousy with them.

There ya go. Tidied those up.

Want a good laugh? Ask a hoo what they think of the hokie. They have possibly more disgust that we have for the holes. Far less intermarriage between the turkey and the cav.

Matches
03-25-2019, 02:51 PM
I looked back through our schedules over recent years and we haven't played the Hokies twice in one season in a long time. They have not been a home-and-away partner in eons, and we only played them twice because of an ACC tournament match-up. I think it's been 6-7 years.

We played them twice in the RS last year. We won in Cameron and lost in Blacksburg.

We have had the unfortunate luck, though, of playing them in Blacksburg in each of the last three seasons, and have lost all three games.

Kedsy
03-25-2019, 02:51 PM
In the past 42 NCAA tournaments, at least one of Duke and UNC has made it to the Elite Eight or further in 35 seasons (the only years since 1977 this hasn't happened were: 2014, 2006, 2003, 2002, 1996, 1984, and 1979). BUT Duke and UNC have only both made it to the Elite Eight or further a mere three times (1988, 1991, and 1998), and that hasn't happened for more than 20 years. Make of this what you will.

fan345678
03-25-2019, 02:54 PM
I'm not sure why everyone is assuming the crowd is going to be so pro-Hokie. I mean, most neutral courts are somewhat anti-Duke, but Google maps shows me that Durham is ten minutes closer to DC than Blacksburg. I don't see that it will be a huge benefit to them.

DC is VT's largest alumni base.

azzefkram
03-25-2019, 02:58 PM
Kinda wondering why the number one overall seed is getting what will probably be a 10pm tip-off.

devildeac
03-25-2019, 03:00 PM
Buzz has really embraced the defense this year, to the point that I don't *think* he'll try a *gimmick* defense. Still, I don't see how they don't have the roster for it. Leave whichever perimeter player is the worst 3pt shooter totally unguarded, and plant Blackshear in the middle of the lane right at the basket and tell him to use the verticality rule to his advantage. Jump straight up, keep your arms straight up, and it's not a foul. Let the perimeter players apply pressure on the outside, and when they get beat on the bounce, attempt to "funnel" the driver (stay on one hip) as they move towards the rim so they can't change direction. Makes it a lot easier for Blackshear to contest without fouling. This strategy has the additional bonus of allowing Blackshear to not be very active/spend much energy on the defensive end, and therefore probably play a lot more minutes than normal.

Still, I don't really expect VT will implement that strategy. However, on the off-chance that they do, I'm sure K will spend some time preparing this week. I'd guess he will counter and attack that by having the unguarded player set lots of ball screens in space. With nobody guarding the screener, the ballhandler should get a TON of room coming off of ball screens. If it's Reddish or Barrett, they'll be able to get relatively wiiiide open 15ish footers at will (which I think they can connect on a very high percentage of), and if it's Zion he gets an unfettered head of steam turning the corner off that screen and moving downhill. Totally possible that Jones and Goldwire get bit of practice time setting screens this week, IMO. The other option would be to tell those guys to fire away from 3, or from 18 feet and try to make them pay for leaving you open, and I just don't think K will go that route.

Are you including the buzzard as a 6th defender for VT? :mad:

weezie
03-25-2019, 03:01 PM
Kinda wondering why the number one overall seed is getting what will probably be a 10pm tip-off.

To sell more Geico insurance and Bud Light beer in the waning hours of the day?

Am I close?

Billy Dat
03-25-2019, 03:02 PM
To sell more Geico insurance and Bud Light beer in the waning hours of the day?

Am I close?

Closer than close, that's the closest to prime time across the USA.

JayZee
03-25-2019, 03:09 PM
One thing I like about this game (aside from it not being in Blacksburg) is that we have the Zion advantage. The Hokies haven't had the "fortune" of seeing Zion's combination of physicality/agility/skill before. That should hopefully play to our advantage. I like the idea of him getting the chance to go at Blackshear inside early to try to draw some fouls. If Blackshear contests, he's likely to foul. If he doesn't, it's easy points for Duke. Zion is such a difference maker out there.

I'll feel even better about things if Jack White is back, because I think White allows us more defensive versatility against a team that requires a ton of discipline and versatility from your defense.

But relatively speaking, I like that we're facing a team that we've seen before but who hasn't seen us at anywhere near full strength.

Here's hoping that we play much better defense than we did yesterday.

Jack for versatility and rebounding AND that he has to be guarded on the 3pt line. Watching RJ and Zion try to maneuver out there against 5 defenders was painful. When the opposing D can basically ignore Tre/Jav/JGold it gets ugly. Testament to just how great Zion and RJ are.

I've maintained most of the year that Jack is what turns us into a juggernaut. He can switch, plays solid D at the rim and when he was making 3s, we looked invincible. Captain Jack we need you...

budwom
03-25-2019, 03:14 PM
To sell more Geico insurance and Bud Light beer in the waning hours of the day?

Am I close?

Ah, this Bud Light beer of which you speak, is that the one with or without corn syrup?

WHOneedsSOX
03-25-2019, 03:19 PM
Kinda wondering why the number one overall seed is getting what will probably be a 10pm tip-off.

Prime time on the west coast. Most people don't get home from work until 6-7pm on weekdays.

rocketeli
03-25-2019, 03:28 PM
At this point of the year I doubt there will be too many surprises or gimmicks from a team successful enough to get to the sweet 16. I'd like to see, frankly, some better coaching decisions from our staff than the past weekend. For example, in the NDSU game, for some reason for some time we weren't crashing the boards after we shot. Instead, everyone headed down the court as soon as the ball went up. Why? Were we that afraid of their fast break? They are a very low level NCAA Div I team, meaning they were much smaller and shorter. Seemed like a very strange game plan to me. Then in the UCF game, we were setting up in the half court which played to their strengths, and taking a bunch of perimeter shots we shouldn't have (or at least Tre Jones was. He took three bad shots (and I love Tre) in a row that just about cost us the game.) Coaches need to get on that stuff.

Speaking of coaches: If I were Duke and saw Buzz out on the floor playing defense the way he does I would have a player "accidentally" run into him and send him rear over teakettle into the side lines.

Deep state conspiracy time. Coach K left Aubrey Dawkins unguarded so he could have a big game on national TV and get drafted by the NBA as a favor too Johnny.

Billy Dat
03-25-2019, 03:28 PM
I've maintained most of the year that Jack is what turns us into a juggernaut. He can switch, plays solid D at the rim and when he was making 3s, we looked invincible. Captain Jack we need you...

I think this late in the game, it's a total crapshoot as to who will play outside of the current starters. The K rotation has shrunk even further. You can basically assume Zion, RJ and Tre are going 40 in a close game. If Cam is not in foul trouble, he'll get at least 32 if not more. Everything else, and there isn't much else, will be dictated by the game flow. Javin and Ques will man the post, but we may go small with neither at time. Goldwire seems like he has the staff's trust. AOC is not on the radar. Antonio was a miracle against UNC but that was like a Loch Ness Monster sighting.

Jack got minutes against FSU in the ACC final but barely played against UNC.

All that is to say that I see a ton of chatter about different guys who aren't really in the mix right now...Jack, AOC, Baker, etc. I think the best that these guys can hope for is to have an important moment or two to help us, with the outside possibility of a Grayson-2015-final odd breakout (not something at that magnified a level but more like a meaningful half in an upcoming game).

I feel like Norman Dale in Hoosiers saying, "This is your team"...we are who we are right now.

dairedevil
03-25-2019, 03:35 PM
I am going to be in the DC area this weekend. Plans were not made around the NCAA tourney, in fact, I don't think I was totally aware that the East Regionals are in DC until I saw Duke's schedule for the weekend. I thought I would check out ticket prices, just in case it was a possibility. At a quick glance, it looks like upper level lousy seats are in the $350-450 range on resale for Friday's games. The seats in lower level go for about $850. I love my son, but that's a little steep. Looks like we'll be watching from the sofa. Miss the atmosphere, but will be able to see a lot more! Grandkids will be happy that I haven't deserted them for basketball.

flyingdutchdevil
03-25-2019, 03:37 PM
To sell more Geico insurance and Bud Light beer in the waning hours of the day?

Am I close?

I feel like this year, it's AT&T and Miller Lite...

kAzE
03-25-2019, 03:44 PM
I feel like this year, it's AT&T and Miller Lite...

Does anybody actually think the AT&T "just okay" announcer guy is funny?

That guy has gotta be one of the worst flops I've ever seen for one of these ad campaigns running during a major sports event.

flyingdutchdevil
03-25-2019, 03:46 PM
Does anybody actually think the AT&T "just okay" announcer guy is funny?

That guy has gotta be one of the worst flops I've ever seen for one of these ad campaigns running during a major sports event.

There's a whole thread on it: https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43520-Phil

CDu
03-25-2019, 03:47 PM
Does anybody actually think the AT&T "just okay" announcer guy is funny?

That guy has gotta be one of the worst flops I've ever seen for one of these ad campaigns running during a major sports event.

That guy is funny, yes. The content itself? Not always so funny. A couple of gems, but they have overdone it. Also, this has been discussed in another thread pretty exhaustively. :)

subzero02
03-25-2019, 03:47 PM
Closer than close, that's the closest to prime time across the USA.

Exactly, it's also not a work or school night for most of the population.

kAzE
03-25-2019, 03:53 PM
That guy is funny, yes. The content itself? Not always so funny. A couple of gems, but they have overdone it. Also, this has been discussed in another thread pretty exhaustively. :)

Ah the title of the thread is ambiguous (Phil), which is how I must have missed it.

-jk
03-25-2019, 04:19 PM
DC is VT's largest alumni base.

DC has one of Duke's, too.

-jk

kAzE
03-25-2019, 04:36 PM
DC has one of Duke's, too.

-jk

Even so, I fully expect 75%+ of the gym to be rooting against Duke. It's a 4 hour drive from Blacksburg, and you know the LSU and MSU fans aren't going to be rooting to play us.

Hopefully the Blue Devil faithful show up in force, but I anticipate this being a road game environment. Hopefully it won't be nearly as bad as 2017 in South Carolina. That was a nightmare scenario.

If we make it to Sunday, there could be a more neutral crowd, but it seems very likely that Friday will be tough for Duke.

-jk
03-25-2019, 04:50 PM
Even so, I fully expect 75%+ of the gym to be rooting against Duke. It's a 4 hour drive from Blacksburg, and you know the LSU and MSU fans aren't going to be rooting to play us.

Hopefully the Blue Devil faithful show up in force, but I anticipate this being a road game environment. Hopefully it won't be nearly as bad as 2017 in South Carolina. That was a nightmare scenario.

It's always a road game environment in the NCAAs! Some are worse than others, though, but I suspect this one won't be among the worst. I hate - hate! - sharing a Pod with unc! (Way too often) And the one with SC wasn't much fun, either. Alas...

Of those fans that really care, I think the UVa and Duke ones bought up a bunch of the DC tickets on spec early. The question is: where have the UVa ones gone? We picked up ours just before winning the ACC, when we guessed we'd be East and had a solid chance of making it out of the opening weekend. (Whew!)

I think the Iron Dukes won't come through with any in the Duke section for us, though. Zion is too popular with the high rollers...

-jk

ndkjr70
03-25-2019, 04:51 PM
Thereís about a 0.0% chance this game is anywhere near as bad as our road game against USC a few years ago. That game had us facing ~40% USC fans AND ~40% UNC fans. It was 100% a road game.

rolm
03-25-2019, 04:52 PM
One more reason to dislike NoVa.

NoVa is awesome. You will find fans of UVA, VT (lots of them), Duke (very good number), uNC (decent amount), and many other ACC schools in this area. It's a shame we don't have an ACC school based in this vicinity.

-jk
03-25-2019, 04:55 PM
NoVa is awesome. You will find fans of UVA, VT (lots of them), Duke (very good number), uNC (decent amount), and many other ACC schools in this area. It's a shame we don't have an ACC school based in this vicinity.

That shouldn't stop us from having the ACC tourney in DC, though!

-jk

MChambers
03-25-2019, 05:02 PM
I think the closeness of the UCF game was my fault. I had planned to make a big batch of NC style barbecue, but when my wife came home with fresh scallops, I didn't bother.

I smoked about 7 lbs of pork today. Doing my bit for Friday's game.

uh_no
03-25-2019, 05:04 PM
That shouldn't stop us from having the ACC tourney in DC, though!

-jk

when we do, I'd chip in to put advertising billboards up in college park for the event!

DarkstarWahoo
03-25-2019, 05:05 PM
NoVa is awesome. You will find fans of UVA, VT (lots of them), Duke (very good number), uNC (decent amount), and many other ACC schools in this area. It's a shame we don't have an ACC school based in this vicinity.

May I remind you of when we actually did have an ACC school nearby?

kAzE
03-25-2019, 05:06 PM
It's always a road game environment in the NCAAs! Some are worse than others, though, but I suspect this one won't be among the worst. I hate - hate! - sharing a Pod with unc! (Way too often) And the one with SC wasn't much fun, either. Alas...

It wasn't just that we were in South Carolina's backyard, UNC also happened to be in the same gym that day, though they weren't in our region. It was truly a perfect storm. That selection committee completely screwed us.

TruBlu
03-25-2019, 05:07 PM
May I remind you of when we actually did have an ACC school nearby?

Please don't remind us. Thanks.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-25-2019, 05:09 PM
It wasn't just that we were in South Carolina's backyard, UNC also happened to be in the same gym that day, though they weren't in our region. It was truly a perfect storm. That selection committee completely screwed us.

Right, double whammy.....in SC's bracket and a gym just a little south of Charlotte area......with UNC in the house. Perfect storm of screwage by the committee....

-jk
03-25-2019, 05:27 PM
NoVa is awesome. You will find fans of UVA, VT (lots of them), Duke (very good number), uNC (decent amount), and many other ACC schools in this area. It's a shame we don't have an ACC school based in this vicinity.


May I remind you of when we actually did have an ACC school nearby?

Can't say I really miss 'em. I'm not so afraid to put Duke stickers on my car these days. (And I fear for those Rutgers alumni cars around here.)

-jk

Troublemaker
03-25-2019, 05:42 PM
My followup question to this is: did Buzz do what Johnny did and assign his center the task of leaving the PG all along and just hanging out in the lane or did he just use a more normal matchup but give lots of space to the guy who couldn't shoot? I'd much rather have a guard playing off Tre and trying to slow down Zion and RJ than Blackshear. Also, with Fall's incredible size, it was a little hard for Tre to close the 12 feet they were giving him and take some mid-range jumpers. If they are using a more normal sized human basketball player, Tre might be able to make them pay (as long as he realizes not to take the bait and chuck up 3's).

No, I don't recall that he did. And, like you, I don't think it would work all that well with Blackshear. Further, I just think UCF got lucky that Tre missed some shots. I wrote this elsewhere but it would be shocking if Tre couldn't hit 40% on wide-open threes with essentially unlimited space and unlimited time to work with.

Indoor66
03-25-2019, 05:54 PM
Does anybody actually think the AT&T "just okay" announcer guy is funny?

That guy has gotta be one of the worst flops I've ever seen for one of these ad campaigns running during a major sports event.

I agree with you. The whole AT&T campaign is lame.

MChambers
03-25-2019, 06:16 PM
No, I don't recall that he did. And, like you, I don't think it would work all that well with Blackshear. Further, I just think UCF got lucky that Tre missed some shots. I wrote this elsewhere but it would be shocking if Tre couldn't hit 40% on wide-open threes with essentially unlimited space and unlimited time to work with.

Iíd rather see him shoot those off the pass, rather than the dribble.

HaveFunExpectToWin
03-25-2019, 06:20 PM
... In DC, which will have more Duke support but will still be a very hostile crowd ...

Fairfax and Loudoun counties are full of Va Tech grads. I expect a lot to be at Cap One Arena.

*Just read another similar post.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-25-2019, 07:32 PM
Iíd rather see him shoot those off the pass, rather than the dribble.

I'd rather see him shoot those in college next season, instead of the G League......

rolm
03-25-2019, 08:28 PM
One more reason to dislike NoVa.


May I remind you of when we actually did have an ACC school nearby?

I may be in the minority, but I liked having MD in the ACC. It provided those of us who live in the area a chance to see Duke every year, and rub it in to the MD fans after they lost regularly to the devils.

Now, there is hardly any buzz around MD basketball. People only get somewhat excited when Michigan St or Michigan come to town. Nobody in the B1G cares about them and their national profile has actually gone down since leaving the ACC.

I wish Georgetown had a D1 football program so they could have joined the ACC. DC area deserves ACC representation.

BigZ
03-25-2019, 09:03 PM
Iíd like to see Duke play faster on offense and get to the basket. Truth is outside of Tre the team shot well yesterday.

devildeac
03-25-2019, 09:18 PM
May I remind you of when we actually did have an ACC school nearby?

No, thank you.

(;))

bundabergdevil
03-25-2019, 09:35 PM
Ugh. My wife is a VT grad. She has VT beating Duke in our big money bracket. I have the opposite. We're getting up at 5 am Saturday and spending 9 hours in the car together driving to our vacation destination. Regardless of the result, Saturday is not shaping up to be a pleasant day for me.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-25-2019, 09:43 PM
Ugh. My wife is a VT grad. She has VT beating Duke in our big money bracket. I have the opposite. We're getting up at 5 am Saturday and spending 9 hours in the car together driving to our vacation destination. Regardless of the result, Saturday is not shaping up to be a pleasant day for me.

What a nightmare way to start a vacation........I'm thinking you need to book tickets to the Caribbean....alone!:cool:

DukieInBrasil
03-25-2019, 09:53 PM
Iíd like to see Duke play faster on offense and get to the basket. Truth is outside of Tre the team shot well yesterday.

Tre shot 4-7 on non-3pt shots. Truth is, Tre Jones shooting a 3 is the worst outcome for Duke on offense, outside of a J-Gold 3 (which happens much less frequently). I agree with others who think he needs to drive, probe the defense and find a better shot when he is left that wide open. He doesn't shoot 3s when receiving a pass very well either, but that is a much better shot to take than one where he is dribbling before hand.

lotusland
03-25-2019, 10:06 PM
I may be in the minority, but I liked having MD in the ACC. It provided those of us who live in the area a chance to see Duke every year, and rub it in to the MD fans after they lost regularly to the devils.

Now, there is hardly any buzz around MD basketball. People only get somewhat excited when Michigan St or Michigan come to town. Nobody in the B1G cares about them and their national profile has actually gone down since leaving the ACC.

I wish Georgetown had a D1 football program so they could have joined the ACC. DC area deserves ACC representation.

I only hate uNCheat. I pulled for Maryland against non-conference opponents and UNC. Prior to reading DBR I never knew that I wasnít supposed to like them. I gather that attending games there as a visiting fan is no fun but Iíve never done that. With that said, they bailed out of the ACC so I wouldnít want them back.

MrPoon
03-25-2019, 10:15 PM
What a nightmare way to start a vacation...I'm thinking you need to book tickets to the Caribbean...alone!:cool:

Or perhaps she can join the V Tech Menís basketball team because they are about to go on vacation too!:rolleyes:

Phredd3
03-26-2019, 06:23 AM
Iíd like to see Duke play faster on offense and get to the basket.

I think pretty much the sole reason that didn't happen on Sunday is named Tacko Fall. I think we'll see a much more aggressive Duke squad on offense on Friday.

indy1duke
03-26-2019, 06:49 AM
Columbia is a whole lot closer to Durham than Orlando is, but that crowd last night sure wasn't pulling for the royal blue.

Duke should be well-represented in DC, but will still be the minority against fans from all of the other teams rooting against us. It is what it is, every year.

I agree with your assessment of Duke support in DC. I would take issue with the description of the crowd in Columbia. We were in the Duke section so that colors my comments. It was loud, even boisterous. It seemed like everyone we saw on the streets wore Duke gear. SC loves Zion. He has converted vast numbers of neutrals and mild haters into Duke fans. Seldom do these NCAA games get loud or anti-Duke unless the underdog really gets it going and then only at the end of the game. I feel that the answer is that only a handful of students attend these games. A lot of ticket holders are locals, neutrals and barely basketball fans. The eight participant schools received only 400 tickets to distribute to their fans in Columbia. Even in DC the four schools receive somewhere between 1000 and 1750 tickets leaving 65% to be distributed to locals, businesses, scalpers, and the general public.

Troublemaker
03-26-2019, 07:19 AM
We need to force many more turnovers than the 6 we forced last time playing VaTech. The lack of turnovers forced was one of the main reasons we lost that game.

Now, the bad news. Getting Zion back has only helped a little on the turnover-forcing front. In the 5 games he's been back, only once has Duke's defense produced a turnover rate of over 20%, and that was against Cuse in the ACCT. (Note: Cuse is just a horrible offense, and even playing without Zion in the game in the Carrier Dome, Duke produced a 19.6% turnover rate in that game.)

Before Zion got injured, Duke's defense regularly produced turnover rates over 20%. Until we get that back, we're not the same Duke team we were before Zion got injured, despite winning the ACC championship and playing a great final.

Gotta say, I am worried about this Duke team. Hopefully, we show more energy and can take the ball away from the Hokies on Friday.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-26-2019, 08:17 AM
I would take issue with the description of the crowd in Columbia. We were in the Duke section so that colors my comments. It was loud, even boisterous. It seemed like everyone we saw on the streets wore Duke gear. SC loves Zion. He has converted vast numbers of neutrals and mild haters into Duke fans. .

FWIW, from watching on TV, the crowd seemed nothing like the hostile to Duke crowd of 2017 in Greenville. It seemed pretty even. Big roars whenever either team made a big play - which was quite often.

Zion played the SC native card very well, and SC is a state intensely proud in that regard, almost a bit insecure in that. (I've lived all my life in either NC or SC....interesting contrasts on things like this). I am sure K made sure of this. I also noted that K was extremely gracious in his praise of Columbia, the arena, even the local troopers. I think that was a little shot at Greenville....(maybe I'm over thinking).

budwom
03-26-2019, 08:32 AM
I think pretty much the sole reason that didn't happen on Sunday is named Tacko Fall. I think we'll see a much more aggressive Duke squad on offense on Friday.

yeah, Fall really took away the interior for us much of the time, especially against Barrett who likes to operate there...a most unusual presence. I'm trying to convince myself that Fall's presence, plus UCF's uncanny ability to hit some big, big shots
as the shot clock was winding down (Dawkins en fuego all game long) accounts for a lot of our struggle. We soon shall see.

OldPhiKap
03-26-2019, 08:39 AM
I agree with your assessment of Duke support in DC. I would take issue with the description of the crowd in Columbia. We were in the Duke section so that colors my comments. It was loud, even boisterous. It seemed like everyone we saw on the streets wore Duke gear. SC loves Zion. He has converted vast numbers of neutrals and mild haters into Duke fans. Seldom do these NCAA games get loud or anti-Duke unless the underdog really gets it going and then only at the end of the game. I feel that the answer is that only a handful of students attend these games. A lot of ticket holders are locals, neutrals and barely basketball fans. The eight participant schools received only 400 tickets to distribute to their fans in Columbia. Even in DC the four schools receive somewhere between 1000 and 1750 tickets leaving 65% to be distributed to locals, businesses, scalpers, and the general public.


FWIW, from watching on TV, the crowd seemed nothing like the hostile to Duke crowd of 2017 in Greenville. It seemed pretty even. Big roars whenever either team made a big play - which was quite often.

Zion played the SC native card very well, and SC is a state intensely proud in that regard, almost a bit insecure in that. (I've lived all my life in either NC or SC...interesting contrasts on things like this). I am sure K made sure of this. I also noted that K was extremely gracious in his praise of Columbia, the arena, even the local troopers. I think that was a little shot at Greenville...(maybe I'm over thinking).

I'll defer to you indy as I was not there. From the TV, the "UCF" cheer at the 2:09 TO was the loudest thing all game it seemed to me.

The worst for me was Charlotte in 2011 when we were in the same pod as UNC, and last year when we were playing USC in SC with the Heels also in the same pod. Neither of those things should happen again.

Having said that, it's hard to think of a Duke player in recent years that seems genuinely liked in the way that Zion is. Big smile, very humble, a joy to watch. He may be the most popular Duke player in decades.

devildeac
03-26-2019, 08:47 AM
yeah, Fall really took away the interior for us much of the time, especially against Barrett who likes to operate there...a most unusual presence. I'm trying to convince myself that Fall's presence, plus UCF's uncanny ability to hit some big, big shots
as the shot clock was winding down (Dawkins en fuego all game long) accounts for a lot of our struggle. We soon shall see.

VT currently #9 in the nation shooting 39.5% on 3s. Duke #13 in nation allowing opponents to shoot only 29.8% on 3s.

VT currently #76 in the nation allowing 32.7% from 3-land. Duke at #329 in the nation shooting 30.7% from 3-land.

Some stats to ponder as you sip your Hill Farmstead brew this evening and/or watch the snow pack thaw.

Dukelogger
03-26-2019, 08:58 AM
I'll defer to you indy as I was not there. From the TV, the "UCF" cheer at the 2:09 TO was the loudest thing all game it seemed to me.

The worst for me was Charlotte in 2011 when we were in the same pod as UNC, and last year when we were playing USC in SC with the Heels also in the same pod. Neither of those things should happen again.

Having said that, it's hard to think of a Duke player in recent years that seems genuinely liked in the way that Zion is. Big smile, very humble, a joy to watch. He may be the most popular Duke player in decades.

I was there and the crowd was mostly Duke fans. Suffice it to say us Duke fans went into the game expecting a blowout, and the UCF fans much like their team were just hoping to stay competitive. So by the under five UCF fans (and the small smattering of UVA and OU fans) got what they wanted and fed off of that, while most of us Duke fans (myself included) were in a state of bewilderment. The loudest roar of the game was after Barretts tip-in, but to be honest up to that point the crowd didn't treat this like a "survive and advance" game and I doubt the volume of Duke fans at the game was accurately portrayed on TV.

UrinalCake
03-26-2019, 08:58 AM
Before Zion got injured, Duke's defense regularly produced turnover rates over 20%. Until we get that back, we're not the same Duke team we were before Zion got injured, despite winning the ACC championship and playing a great final.

That's been one of the big mysteries to me, why we haven't been able to force turnovers like we were earlier in the year. Not having Zion was an easy thing to point to, but we can no longer use that as an excuse. Even against the CHeats, who turn the ball over a lot, we barely forced any. We've also been playing Goldwire a lot more minutes since the end of the season, which should allow us to force more turnovers, yet we're not. Maybe opponents are more aware of our tendencies and have adjusted, but a huge part of our offense prior to Zion getting hurt was forcing turnovers and getting transition baskets/dunks as you said.

OldPhiKap
03-26-2019, 09:04 AM
That's been one of the big mysteries to me, why we haven't been able to force turnovers like we were earlier in the year. Not having Zion was an easy thing to point to, but we can no longer use that as an excuse. Even against the CHeats, who turn the ball over a lot, we barely forced any. We've also been playing Goldwire a lot more minutes since the end of the season, which should allow us to force more turnovers, yet we're not. Maybe opponents are more aware of our tendencies and have adjusted, but a huge part of our offense prior to Zion getting hurt was forcing turnovers and getting transition baskets/dunks as you said.

I wonder if that has to do with the fact that, since Zion's been back, we have played exclusively against NCAA tourney-caliber teams and did not have weaker teams to pad the stats. Not sure, because it sure seems like the defense is still playing at a high level.

It also seems to me that we have turned the ball over a lot lately -- do not know if that stats bear that out -- but it is harder to force a turnover if we have a live ball turnover ourselves. Instead of setting our defense, we are instantly playing transition D.

I throw these out as ideas, not as dogma.

DavidBenAkiva
03-26-2019, 09:08 AM
That's been one of the big mysteries to me, why we haven't been able to force turnovers like we were earlier in the year. Not having Zion was an easy thing to point to, but we can no longer use that as an excuse. Even against the CHeats, who turn the ball over a lot, we barely forced any. We've also been playing Goldwire a lot more minutes since the end of the season, which should allow us to force more turnovers, yet we're not. Maybe opponents are more aware of our tendencies and have adjusted, but a huge part of our offense prior to Zion getting hurt was forcing turnovers and getting transition baskets/dunks as you said.

The higher the better, but is 20% a magical number?

Since the start of ACC Tournament:
Syracuse: 23.8%
North Carolina: 11.0%
Florida State: 17.3%
North Dakota St.: 18.2%
UCF: 16.3%

I am also concerned about the offensive rebounding rate.

Jeffrey
03-26-2019, 09:24 AM
Gotta say, I am worried about this Duke team. Hopefully, we show more energy and can take the ball away from the Hokies on Friday.

I'm not currently worried about this Duke team. We are healthy, motivated, and focused. We have the most talent and best coach. IMO, odds are in our favor.

Who do you think is most likely to win the tourney?

CDu
03-26-2019, 09:29 AM
We need to force many more turnovers than the 6 we forced last time playing VaTech. The lack of turnovers forced was one of the main reasons we lost that game.

Now, the bad news. Getting Zion back has only helped a little on the turnover-forcing front. In the 5 games he's been back, only once has Duke's defense produced a turnover rate of over 20%, and that was against Cuse in the ACCT. (Note: Cuse is just a horrible offense, and even playing without Zion in the game in the Carrier Dome, Duke produced a 19.6% turnover rate in that game.)

Before Zion got injured, Duke's defense regularly produced turnover rates over 20%. Until we get that back, we're not the same Duke team we were before Zion got injured, despite winning the ACC championship and playing a great final.

Gotta say, I am worried about this Duke team. Hopefully, we show more energy and can take the ball away from the Hokies on Friday.

I agree with you on the turnovers. It will help us A LOT if we can force more than the measly 6 week got against them last time.

I will say that, despite our (relative) struggles in forcing turnovers, we've still generally been an elite defense. We had a defensive efficiency in the mid-80s against UNC, FSU, and NDSU. And wins over a 1 seed and a 4 seed in the ACC tournament do still look nice. Even with the stinker against UCF and the relative lack of turnovers, we're at about a 91.2 adjusted defensive efficiency, which would be about 13th in the country. So it's not like we have to force turnovers. Though of course it would help. It would also help our offense, which has been a 119.3 adjusted efficiency over the last 5 games, which would be 8th nationally. Still, a #8 offense and #13 defense is still a nearly top-5 team, and that's without Bolden for 3 games and without White for 2, and without the turnovers.

As it relates to this game, I think having Zion back is a big boost in terms of our versatility in guarding Blackshear, as well as in our ability to draw fouls on Blackshear. Last game, we couldn't get him off the floor because nobody was effective at getting to the rim on him, and our bigs struggled to defend him. Bolden was too slow, and DeLaurier wasn't strong enough, and neither was overly comfortable guarding him away from the post. Zion is the one guy who can guard Blackshear all over the court. So while I don't think we'll put Zion on Blackshear to start the game, having him available to go at Blackshear on offense and having the option to play him at the 5 makes a big difference.

Now, I don't think we're going to suddenly shut down Va Tech. Their offense is really good. But I think having Zion will help a LOT. It will also be nice if we can get Jack White back, to add to our defensive versatility and toughness. Without White, we basically have to go REALLY small to put Zion at the 5. With him, we can pick and choose our 5th guy between White (maintaining positional "honesty") and Goldwire (going with a small, frenetic lineup).

Obviously, getting more turnovers would be the easiest route to victory, because it will help both our defense and our offense (neither of which need a ton of help to begin with). But we're certainly capable of winning it all without forcing a boatload of turnovers. Just not the absolute juggernaut we were early on.

robed deity
03-26-2019, 09:44 AM
I don't love playing all of these slow teams. VA Tech will be the 3rd straight opponent in the bottom quarter of the country in pace. I know Duke had success in the 2 UVA games, but I feel like faster is better, and it's hard to speed the game up.

CDu
03-26-2019, 09:47 AM
That's been one of the big mysteries to me, why we haven't been able to force turnovers like we were earlier in the year. Not having Zion was an easy thing to point to, but we can no longer use that as an excuse. Even against the CHeats, who turn the ball over a lot, we barely forced any. We've also been playing Goldwire a lot more minutes since the end of the season, which should allow us to force more turnovers, yet we're not. Maybe opponents are more aware of our tendencies and have adjusted, but a huge part of our offense prior to Zion getting hurt was forcing turnovers and getting transition baskets/dunks as you said.

I think part of it is better quality of competition. I think another part of it is natural regression in that teams are being more careful with the ball against us later in the season having seen what we can do in transition.

That being said, even without getting an absurd number of turnovers, we've still been a top-10 offense and a top-15 defense (thus top-8 or better overall) over the five game stretch with Zion back. And that is deflated a bit by the following:
1. Missing Bolden for 3 games
2. Missing White for 2 games
3. Having Zion be working his way back into full conditioning in the ACC Tourney
4. Sitting a bunch of the starters for the last several minutes of the blowout against NDSU.

Hopefully we'll get White back this weekend and we'll have Bolden back to healthy and we'll tick back up towards juggernaut status again.

COYS
03-26-2019, 09:54 AM
I think part of it is better quality of competition. I think another part of it is natural regression in that teams are being more careful with the ball against us later in the season having seen what we can do in transition.

That being said, even without getting an absurd number of turnovers, we've still been a top-10 offense and a top-15 defense (thus top-8 or better overall) over the five game stretch with Zion back. And that is deflated a bit by the following:
1. Missing Bolden for 3 games
2. Missing White for 2 games
3. Having Zion be working his way back into full conditioning in the ACC Tourney
4. Sitting a bunch of the starters for the last several minutes of the blowout against NDSU.

Hopefully we'll get White back this weekend and we'll have Bolden back to healthy and we'll tick back up towards juggernaut status again.

Thanks for mentioning Marquesí and Jackís absences. They are obviously not as vital as Zion to our title hopes, but they both are very important role players and give us needed defensive versatility. Hopefully Jack will be back for the rematch with the Hokies and his ability to defend on the perimeter and grab some boards will provide a little boost to our defense.

mpj96
03-26-2019, 09:58 AM
Me too. I'm scared about teams following the UCF strategy and intentionally leaving Tre unguarded for perimeter shots, but I don't think VT has the roster to pull that off in the way that potentially LSU would in the Elite 8.

They left Tre totally unguarded in the 1st match up and packed the paint. It worked so well for them (& UNC & UCF) I can't see why they would change up now.

Troublemaker
03-26-2019, 10:06 AM
I agree with you on the turnovers. It will help us A LOT if we can force more than the measly 6 week got against them last time.

I will say that, despite our (relative) struggles in forcing turnovers, we've still generally been an elite defense. We had a defensive efficiency in the mid-80s against UNC, FSU, and NDSU. And wins over a 1 seed and a 4 seed in the ACC tournament do still look nice. Even with the stinker against UCF and the relative lack of turnovers, we're at about a 91.2 adjusted defensive efficiency, which would be about 13th in the country. So it's not like we have to force turnovers. Though of course it would help. It would also help our offense, which has been a 119.3 adjusted efficiency over the last 5 games, which would be 8th nationally. Still, a #8 offense and #13 defense is still a nearly top-5 team, and that's without Bolden for 3 games and without White for 2, and without the turnovers.

As it relates to this game, I think having Zion back is a big boost in terms of our versatility in guarding Blackshear, as well as in our ability to draw fouls on Blackshear. Last game, we couldn't get him off the floor because nobody was effective at getting to the rim on him, and our bigs struggled to defend him. Bolden was too slow, and DeLaurier wasn't strong enough, and neither was overly comfortable guarding him away from the post. Zion is the one guy who can guard Blackshear all over the court. So while I don't think we'll put Zion on Blackshear to start the game, having him available to go at Blackshear on offense and having the option to play him at the 5 makes a big difference.

Now, I don't think we're going to suddenly shut down Va Tech. Their offense is really good. But I think having Zion will help a LOT. It will also be nice if we can get Jack White back, to add to our defensive versatility and toughness. Without White, we basically have to go REALLY small to put Zion at the 5. With him, we can pick and choose our 5th guy between White (maintaining positional "honesty") and Goldwire (going with a small, frenetic lineup).

Obviously, getting more turnovers would be the easiest route to victory, because it will help both our defense and our offense (neither of which need a ton of help to begin with). But we're certainly capable of winning it all without forcing a boatload of turnovers. Just not the absolute juggernaut we were early on.

Thanks for calculating that. If your numbers are correct, that's basically the concern in a nutshell. Ideally we'd already be playing like a top-5 team (ideally the top-1 team). Any game could be our last at this point, and we don't know if we'll have the opportunity to reach another level.

And I do think we need the turnovers to win it all.


I'm not currently worried about this Duke team. We are healthy, motivated, and focused. We have the most talent and best coach. IMO, odds are in our favor.

Who do you think is most likely to win the tourney?

My preseason pick, UVA.

robed deity
03-26-2019, 10:09 AM
Thanks for calculating that. If your numbers are correct, that's basically the concern in a nutshell. Ideally we'd already be playing like a top-5 team (ideally the top-1 team). Any game could be our last at this point, and we don't know if we'll have the opportunity to reach another level.

And I do think we need the turnovers to win it all.



My preseason pick, UVA.

Using Torvik's site, since Zion's return, Duke is 12th in the country in efficiency. Not bad, but not great either.

Troublemaker
03-26-2019, 10:15 AM
Using Torvik's site, since Zion's return, Duke is 12th in the country in efficiency. Not bad, but not great either.

Thank you to you as well. So, it's obvious we have to take it up a notch. This week of practice is going to be so important; would love to be a fly on the wall.

Jeffrey
03-26-2019, 10:21 AM
My preseason pick, UVA.

Cool, I'll take Duke. Wager?

CDu
03-26-2019, 10:25 AM
Thanks for calculating that. If your numbers are correct, that's basically the concern in a nutshell. Ideally we'd already be playing like a top-5 team (ideally the top-1 team). Any game could be our last at this point, and we don't know if we'll have the opportunity to reach another level.

And I do think we need the turnovers to win it all.

It's a reasonable concern, yes. But I do think there are counterarguments to that concern:
1. We're a team that plays a short bench, and for all 5 of those games we've had one of our key rotation players out (Bolden for 3, White for 2)
2. Our numbers in this small sample size are deflated by one bad performance against a team with a bit of an outlier profile
3. Our numbers are also deflated by our starters (mainly Zion, but others as well) coming out very early (Zion left with over 8 minutes to go) against NDSU

If you filter out the outlier game and the last 8 minutes of a blowout against NDSU, we are again the profile of a 1 seed (#3 overall). That was our performance in the ACC Tournament and for the first ~30 minutes of the NDSU game. And that's without having one of our key rotation players for each of the past 5 games.

So, basically, I think the concern boils down largely to one bad game and the lack of availability of one of our regulars. One of those will hopefully be resolved by Friday (if White returns).

So, yes it is a concern. But I think there are reasons for it. And I don't know that we need to force a boatload of turnovers to win it all. We beat UNC without Bolden while forcing just an 11% turnover rate. We beat UVa in Cameron without Jones forcing a turnover rate of just 12.7%. We played Gonzaga to a standstill in November forcing a turnover rate of 15%. We were within a possession of VT on the road up until the end (without Zion and with them without Robinson) forcing just a 9.5% turnover rate. We beat Auburn forcing just a 12.7% turnover rate and FSU by double digits forcing just a 17.3% turnover rate. We demolished Kentucky forcing just an 18% turnover rate. That's the other 3 #1 seeds, a 2 seed, a 4 seed, and a 5 seed, all wins (many of them shorthanded) or a VERY close loss very early in the season without forcing a ton of turnovers. And a very shorthanded road loss to the other 4 seed with an absolutely abysmal forced turnover rate.

We can win the tournament without forcing a 20+% turnover rate. It will be harder to do so though.

BandAlum83
03-26-2019, 10:25 AM
It is a crying shame that I can't spork this. Please, someone else take up my cause.

It'd the thought that counts, Mtn Devil!

Troublemaker
03-26-2019, 10:26 AM
Cool, I'll take Duke. Wager?

Ha, sure. I'll put a pie on it.

If Duke advances further, you win a pie. If UVA advances further, I win a pie. In the case of a tie, no pie transfers.

Deal?

Reddevil
03-26-2019, 10:28 AM
When Tre is unguarded, his best action is to force the issue by driving for a pull up, or dishing off. That turns a negative into a positive. Also, during the halftime interview with K when asked how they were able to pull away a little bit, he indicated the press helped them...then they didn't go back to it that I saw. When they are pressing and running they can be devastating. I hope the week of practice restores them to the elite team they can be. My heart requires it.

CDu
03-26-2019, 10:46 AM
Another way of looking at it is this: we have had 13 games this season in which we've had Zion healthy AND forced a turnover rate below the national average (~18.5%). In those 13 games, we've gone 11-2 with wins over two 1 seeds, a 2 seed, a 4 seed, a 5 seed, and a 9 seed. One of the losses was to the other 1 seed (Gonzaga), a deep and veteran opponent, on the third game in 3 days in Hawaii in November. The other loss was while we were missing two key starters (Syracuse). I'd suspect that our performances in games where we didn't force even D1 average turnover rate is still a top seed profile. Regardless, if we're winning those big games without even getting to the national average in forced turnovers (and in some cases still shorthanded), I'd say we're doing okay.

Now, forcing turnovers certainly makes life a lot easier. It certainly helped us beat UVa in Charlottesville, Texas Tech in MSG, and FSU in Tallahassee. I'd certainly like our chances even more if we were turning teams over 20+%. But I'd give us as good a shot as anyone in the field assuming we get and stay healthy, with or without forcing a ton of turnovers.

NSDukeFan
03-26-2019, 10:50 AM
The higher the better, but is 20% a magical number?

Since the start of ACC Tournament:
Syracuse: 23.8%
North Carolina: 11.0%
Florida State: 17.3%
North Dakota St.: 18.2%
UCF: 16.3%

I am also concerned about the offensive rebounding rate.

Fortunately, the offensive rebounding timing was good in the last game.

Jeffrey
03-26-2019, 10:52 AM
Ha, sure. I'll put a pie on it.

If Duke advances further, you win a pie. If UVA advances further, I win a pie. In the case of a tie, no pie transfers.

Deal?

Absolutely! We may be looking at a Finals pie!

sbroc012
03-26-2019, 10:58 AM
So if I remember correctly, when playing Tech, they used a box and 1 defense against us. The one was guarding RJ and the other 4 sagged off in the paint utilizing a match-up zone. Obviously we were without Zion that game and an under weather RJ resulted in that defense working well enough. I would not put it past Buzz to throw out another "junk" defense this time too. This time it will have to be what I would refer to as a triangle and 2 defense. Essentially, man to man against Zion and RJ and a triangle zone with the other 3 defenders. The problem with this defense against Duke is that it is going to space out the D enough to where Zion and RJ will have enough room to operate and make plays. If Reddish shows up and knocks down a couple shots to start the game it would force Tech to come out of this and play a more conventional man or further stretch the zone match-ups with the 3 defenders, thus giving RJ and Zion even more room to operate.

Ian
03-26-2019, 10:59 AM
The fact of the matter is, turnovers forced is a high variance statistic. Not every deflection turns into a turnover, sometimes it gets poked to another opponent player, sometimes it goes out of bounds. It's just one of those things that has a lot of randomness to it.

Furthermore, it's one of those stats that inherently depends somewhat on the opposition cooperating, and as we advance in the tourney, we are increasing facing both higher quality opposition and opposition that is playing on top of their game in terms of focus and execution, and will have fewer turnovers. We should naturally expect forced TO% to drop even if we are playing the same level of defense.

Troublemaker
03-26-2019, 10:59 AM
Absolutely! We may be looking at a Finals pie!

Let's hope so (and obviously I would gladly lose in that scenario)!

**shakes on it**

I actually am sort of worried about UVA against Oregon, believe it or not. But if they can get past the Ducks, I do think they'll end up in the Monday night game. Duke has a tougher path to get there.

Jeffrey
03-26-2019, 11:09 AM
I actually am sort of worried about UVA against Oregon, believe it or not.

Bill Walton strongly agrees.

CDu
03-26-2019, 11:16 AM
The fact of the matter is, turnovers forced is a high variance statistic. Not every deflection turns into a turnover, sometimes it gets poked to another opponent player, sometimes it goes out of bounds. It's just one of those things that has a lot of randomness to it.

Furthermore, it's one of those stats that inherently depends somewhat on the opposition cooperating, and as we advance in the tourney, we are increasing facing both higher quality opposition and opposition that is playing on top of their game in terms of focus and execution, and will have fewer turnovers. We should naturally expect forced TO% to drop even if we are playing the same level of defense.

Yep. Our turnover profile on the season sort of reflects this. In the 30 games that Zion has been healthy, we've had 16 games above 20% in turnovers forced, 13 games below the national average (18.5%), and 1 game in between (we forced 19.4% in that game). We're 16-0 in games where we have Zion and force a 20+% turnover rate (17-0 in all 20+% turnover games), 1-0 in games where we are above average but below 20%, and 11-2 in games with Zion where we force below the national average turnover rate (that bumps up to 11-1 if you exclude the Syracuse game where we were short two 2 starters). We're 2-3 in games where we don't have Zion and don't force the national average turnover rate.

Basically, we appear unbeatable if we have Zion and force a 20+% turnover rate. We're a #1 seed if we have Zion and don't even force the D1 average turnover rate. We're the #1 overall seed, but beatable, if we have all four freshmen, even if we force a below-national-average turnover rate. We're of course not a top-25 team if we don't have Zion AND we don't force a turnover rate over 18.5%.

In short, turnover rate isn't what makes us a team as likely as anyone to win the title. Turnover rate (with Zion on the floor) is what makes us the hands-down favorite. But we've got an elite resume in games where we have Zion but the other team doesn't turn it over.

MCFinARL
03-26-2019, 11:23 AM
I'm not sure why everyone is assuming the crowd is going to be so pro-Hokie. I mean, most neutral courts are somewhat anti-Duke, but Google maps shows me that Durham is ten minutes closer to DC than Blacksburg. I don't see that it will be a huge benefit to them.

Maybe not, but hordes of Northern Virginia kids go to Virginia Tech and then move back to the DC area--so they won't all have to travel from Blacksburg.

jv001
03-26-2019, 11:30 AM
As far as forced turnovers go, I'm with those who point out we have been playing better teams. One positive thing about our last game was that we only had 8 turnovers ourselves. That we improved on that aspect of the game, was encouraging. As for our overall defense, we need for every player to buy into playing Duke defense. No matter if it's man2man, zone, or pressing full court. If one player doesn't do their job, the defensive possession can be a failure and too many of those can mean a loss. Standing around and not blocking out or not giving help defense can lead to a loss. I'm hopeful Jack is back at 100% and Marques is back to where he was before the injury. It's all hands on deck if Duke is going to take home the biggest prize of the season. GoDuke!

killerleft
03-26-2019, 11:40 AM
We need to force many more turnovers than the 6 we forced last time playing VaTech. The lack of turnovers forced was one of the main reasons we lost that game.

Now, the bad news. Getting Zion back has only helped a little on the turnover-forcing front. In the 5 games he's been back, only once has Duke's defense produced a turnover rate of over 20%, and that was against Cuse in the ACCT. (Note: Cuse is just a horrible offense, and even playing without Zion in the game in the Carrier Dome, Duke produced a 19.6% turnover rate in that game.)

Before Zion got injured, Duke's defense regularly produced turnover rates over 20%. Until we get that back, we're not the same Duke team we were before Zion got injured, despite winning the ACC championship and playing a great final.

Gotta say, I am worried about this Duke team. Hopefully, we show more energy and can take the ball away from the Hokies on Friday.

Would it be unseemly of me to suggest that Zion, especially, and RJ may have not played with the same abandon on defense since Zion's injury? Could it be a subconscious thing?

BandAlum83
03-26-2019, 11:46 AM
Ugh. My wife is a VT grad. She has VT beating Duke in our big money bracket. I have the opposite. We're getting up at 5 am Saturday and spending 9 hours in the car together driving to our vacation destination. Regardless of the result, Saturday is not shaping up to be a pleasant day for me.

With luck, your wife will be asleep by the time this late start actually happens. Saturday you can just avoid the subject all together regardless of the outcome. You'll pay for it on sunday, but perhaps you will get one nice vacation day in.

arnie
03-26-2019, 11:54 AM
Would it be unseemly of me to suggest that Zion, especially, and RJ may have not played with the same abandon on defense since Zion's injury? Could it be a subconscious thing?

I think thatís fair;at least for Zion. Iím sure the knee injury is at least subconsciously affecting his play. Of course, we canít expect him to block every interior shot or grab every rebound. RJ seems to get caught in the wrong places on D.

CDu
03-26-2019, 11:57 AM
Would it be unseemly of me to suggest that Zion, especially, and RJ may have not played with the same abandon on defense since Zion's injury? Could it be a subconscious thing?

Not unseemly, but I don't think it would be accurate. I certainly don't think anything about the way Zion has played suggests he's holding anything back. I think it's more of a small sample size issue and an improvement in the quality of competition.

If you throw out the games against opponents in the ~100 or worse range ranking (Army, Eastern Michigan, SDSU, Stetson, Hartford, Princeton, Pitt, Notre Dame, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake, NDSU) and the games in which either Zion or two of the other key freshmen didn't play (Syracuse x2, UNC x2, Wake, Va Tech, and Miami), we have had just 9 games in which we've forced a turnover rate above the national average and 11 games in which we have failed to force the national average in turnover rate.

In the 5 games in which Zion has come back, we've done it once in 4 games. So we're basically about one game off of our normal pace against quality competition.

Chard
03-26-2019, 11:59 AM
Going to watch this game while camping with a bunch of Carolina fans. Always an interesting weekend. I hope their night is ruined on Friday.

I haven't seen anyone mention the brutal stretch that Duke had to go through before that game in Blacksburg. It was a highly contested game with Duke right in it till the end without Zion. Duke came out of that stretch 4-2 against 5 tournament teams (starting with @ UVA). Not too shabby. Coach K mentioned how tired the team was after those 6 games. I expect a much better result on Friday night vs. February 26th.

Bolden has been my bellwether player for this season. If he can get back to playing like he was earlier this season, watch out!

killerleft
03-26-2019, 11:59 AM
I'll defer to you indy as I was not there. From the TV, the "UCF" cheer at the 2:09 TO was the loudest thing all game it seemed to me.

The worst for me was Charlotte in 2011 when we were in the same pod as UNC, and last year when we were playing USC in SC with the Heels also in the same pod. Neither of those things should happen again.

Having said that, it's hard to think of a Duke player in recent years that seems genuinely liked in the way that Zion is. Big smile, very humble, a joy to watch. He may be the most popular Duke player in decades.

2011 in Charlotte was the year my dislike for Carolina reached its height. I was in the arena, and was shocked at the hatred and profanity coming out of the mouths of Carolina fans. Which took some doing, let me tell you. It was a case of mass hysteria. I have seen no reason to change my opinion of the Ugly Blue Nation in the years since, and my feelings have maybe doubled since then.

devildeac
03-26-2019, 12:02 PM
2011 in Charlotte was the year my dislike for Carolina reached its height. I was in the arena, and was shocked at the hatred and profanity coming out of the mouths of Carolina fans. Which took some doing, let me tell you. It was a case of mass hysteria. I have seen no reason to change my opinion of the Ugly Blue Nation in the years since, and my feelings have maybe doubled since then.

Only doubled? You're not worthy: clap, clap, clap/clap/clap.

(;))

Kfanarmy
03-26-2019, 12:03 PM
Would it be unseemly of me to suggest that Zion, especially, and RJ may have not played with the same abandon on defense since Zion's injury? Could it be a subconscious thing?

You mean like when he didn't try to outrun a point guard to steal the ball, do a crossover behind the back to maintain it before going in for a dunk...that kind of lack of abandon? Oh wait, he did that on defense.

Seriously though, I think Zion is working his tale off on D. I haven't focused on RJs defense soo much, but suspect the level of competition and energy that comes with the one and done tournament may be having their own impacts...not to mention this is the first time these frosh have been on this grand stage...ever.

UrinalCake
03-26-2019, 12:07 PM
As far as forced turnovers go, I'm with those who point out we have been playing better teams.

Just looking at the box scores, Kentucky committed 15 turnovers against us, Auburn 9, Gonzaga 9, Texas Tech 23, FSU 17, UVA 8 and 13. I donít know how to convert this to a turnover rate. Anyways, those are all really good teams who are still alive in the tournament yet we had success turning them over.

DavidBenAkiva
03-26-2019, 12:10 PM
Jordan Sperber, AKA HoopsVision68, did a breakdown of one thing on every team in the NCAA Tournament. For Virginia Tech, he had the following to note:

"Virginia Tech gives early help to stop the ball from ever going into the paint."

The segment on Virginia Tech is at the 11:50 mark of the video. That was effective against Duke in parts throughout the game during the regular season. Tech also used some box-and-one. Barrett was effective against both defenses in the second half, attacking the rim and occasionally dumping the ball off the Marques Bolden. In the rematch, Virginia Tech is going to have to figure out a way to prevent the dump-off to Zion or a post entry.


https://youtu.be/z_mYiV7nOAY?t=710

Natty_B
03-26-2019, 12:13 PM
. I haven't seen anyone mention the brutal stretch that Duke had to go through before that game in Blacksburg. It was a highly contested game with Duke right in it till the end without Zion. Duke came out of that stretch 4-2 against 5 tournament teams (starting with @ UVA). Not too shabby. Coach K mentioned how tired the team was after those 6 games. I expect a much better result on Friday night vs. February 26th.

I thought about this as well. I believe K said something about how it was the recent second weekend/early week double road game for Duke and that it impacted the team.

Virginia Tech has had a pretty easy, per Kenpom, road to the sweet 16 beating #104 and #57.

ns7
03-26-2019, 12:22 PM
Tre shot 4-7 on non-3pt shots. Truth is, Tre Jones shooting a 3 is the worst outcome for Duke on offense, outside of a J-Gold 3 (which happens much less frequently). I agree with others who think he needs to drive, probe the defense and find a better shot when he is left that wide open. He doesn't shoot 3s when receiving a pass very well either, but that is a much better shot to take than one where he is dribbling before hand.

We can do a thought exercise on what Tre has to shoot from 3 for it to be a better than "breakeven" play.

Our adjusted offense is 1.19, so let's round up to 1.2 for simplicity. This means we score 1.2 points per possession against an average defense (a team like Miami). However, you would expect us to score around 1.05 against a top defense like UVA, or around 1.1 against a good defense like VT.

That means a 3pt is breakeven at 37% against a good defense (VT) and 35% is breakeven against a great defense (VT). However, this doesn't take into account the chance of an offensive rebound. We need to incorporate that, which will decrease the breakeven 3pt%. After adjusting for the chance of an OR, the breakeven 3pt% drops to 25-26%.

So the question is whether we think Tre's chance of hitting a wide open three pointer is greater than 25%. If so, he should take them. If not, he should pass them up.

Finally, this analysis doesn't take into account the variance caused by taking threes. They are generally a high variance play so it's better to use this strategy earlier in the game versus later in the game when you want a more certain outcome.

Saratoga2
03-26-2019, 12:33 PM
Yep. Our turnover profile on the season sort of reflects this. In the 30 games that Zion has been healthy, we've had 16 games above 20% in turnovers forced, 13 games below the national average (18.5%), and 1 game in between (we forced 19.4% in that game). We're 16-0 in games where we have Zion and force a 20+% turnover rate (17-0 in all 20+% turnover games), 1-0 in games where we are above average but below 20%, and 11-2 in games with Zion where we force below the national average turnover rate (that bumps up to 11-1 if you exclude the Syracuse game where we were short two 2 starters). We're 2-3 in games where we don't have Zion and don't force the national average turnover rate.

Basically, we appear unbeatable if we have Zion and force a 20+% turnover rate. We're a #1 seed if we have Zion and don't even force the D1 average turnover rate. We're the #1 overall seed, but beatable, if we have all four freshmen, even if we force a below-national-average turnover rate. We're of course not a top-25 team if we don't have Zion AND we don't force a turnover rate over 18.5%.

In short, turnover rate isn't what makes us a team as likely as anyone to win the title. Turnover rate (with Zion on the floor) is what makes us the hands-down favorite. But we've got an elite resume in games where we have Zion but the other team doesn't turn it over.

Look. We just won by 1 point in a game that could clearly have gone the other way. We are not unbeatable with Zion. Enough to say we are much better with Zion.

UrinalCake
03-26-2019, 12:39 PM
Look. We just won by 1 point in a game that could clearly have gone the other way. We are not unbeatable with Zion. Enough to say we are much better with Zion.

100% agree. Texas Tech was beating us for most of the game before a late comeback, as was Louisville. The first FSU game and the last UNC game were coin flips.

If we go on to win the title, we will say that we were unbeatable when healthy. But if we don't then we will undoubtedly point to the weaknesses that we have seen all season long and say that we simply couldn't overcome them and should have seen the loss coming. It was a similar story last season.

killerleft
03-26-2019, 12:44 PM
Only doubled? You're not worthy: clap, clap, clap/clap/clap.

(;))

Yeah, yeah.:) I also noticed I said my dislike had reached its height, only to double it later in the post. And so it goes.

CDu
03-26-2019, 12:47 PM
Look. We just won by 1 point in a game that could clearly have gone the other way. We are not unbeatable with Zion. Enough to say we are much better with Zion.

I agree. As I noted, we have lost with Zion. I said if we have Zion AND we force a 20+% turnover rate we are a juggernaut. The “and” is key there.

My point in that post was more related to what we are when we DON’T force a high turnover rate. In those games, we still profile as a 1 seed with Zion and probably an 8 or 9 seed without him.

I presented three scenarios:
1. With Zion AND forcing a ton of turnovers
2. With Zion but not forcing turnovers
3. Without Zion

Scenario 2 was the crux of my point. We have split the games 50/50 between 1 and 2, with 2 being a certainly beatable 1 seed and 1 being an absolute juggernaut.

devildeac
03-26-2019, 12:48 PM
Yeah, yeah.:) I also noticed I said my dislike had reached its height, only to double it later in the post. And so it goes.

Ceiling? Roof?


:rolleyes:

UrinalCake
03-26-2019, 01:11 PM
I agree. As I noted, we have lost with Zion. I said if we have Zion AND we force a 20+% turnover rate we are a juggernaut. The ďandĒ is key there.


But as you know, there aren't just one or two keys that you can point to and say "if we do this, then we will win." If I had told you that we would shoot 40% from three against UCF, most fans would assume that we would win easily because three point shooting is presumed to be the "key" to us being invincible.

CDu
03-26-2019, 01:43 PM
But as you know, there aren't just one or two keys that you can point to and say "if we do this, then we will win." If I had told you that we would shoot 40% from three against UCF, most fans would assume that we would win easily because three point shooting is presumed to be the "key" to us being invincible.

Sure. But in the context of this discussion (can we win the title without forcing a ton of turnovers?), that's a separate point.

Any team can lose a game on the wrong day. The question being discussed is here was whether or not we have to force turnovers to be a strong contender for the title. My point was that we don't; we've still played like a 1 seed when we've had Zion even when we didn't force a ton of turnovers.

We are FAR from a lock to win a title. That was true with or without Zion, and with or without turnovers. But I'd argue that - with the team healthy - we're as likely as any other team is to win the title, and more likely than all but maybe one or two others. Regardless of any one particular facet of the game.

dukelifer
03-26-2019, 01:47 PM
Let's hope so (and obviously I would gladly lose in that scenario)!

**shakes on it**

I actually am sort of worried about UVA against Oregon, believe it or not. But if they can get past the Ducks, I do think they'll end up in the Monday night game. Duke has a tougher path to get there.

So you think they will beat UNC?

CDu
03-26-2019, 01:49 PM
So you think they will beat UNC?

They beat UNC this year, in Chapel Hill, with an injured Diakite. They should beat UNC if they play them again.

Also, no guarantee that UNC beats a really good Auburn team in their next game.

NSDukeFan
03-26-2019, 01:56 PM
You mean like when he didn't try to outrun a point guard to steal the ball, do a crossover behind the back to maintain it before going in for a dunk...that kind of lack of abandon? Oh wait, he did that on defense.

Seriously though, I think Zion is working his tale off on D. I haven't focused on RJs defense soo much, but suspect the level of competition and energy that comes with the one and done tournament may be having their own impacts...not to mention this is the first time these frosh have been on this grand stage...ever.
Thatís quite a story. 😀

moonpie23
03-26-2019, 02:01 PM
i enjoy reading all y'all's in-depth thoughts and numbers regarding the game, but i'm not going down that rabbit hole.....if jack is back, and we play well, i like our chances.....if jack isn't back, we have to make up for that.....focus, and attention to detail is key.

This team can beat any of those other teams when they're firing on all cylinders....We play who we play, and the ceiling is the roof....

DarkstarWahoo
03-26-2019, 02:03 PM
They beat UNC this year, in Chapel Hill, with an injured Diakite. They should beat UNC if they play them again.


You're forgetting that UNC's entire team was injured by the end of that. It was just poor Kenny Williams playing 1-on-5 with a bunch of Wahoos who were fouling him at every turn. That's why it makes sense that Williams is considered the greatest defender since prime Pippen despite letting Kyle Guy run free for the entire last minute of the game - he had four other players to try to guard. Things would have been way different if Cameron Johnson's legs had been attached to his body.

That's what I hear from UNC fans, anyway.

wgl1228
03-26-2019, 02:03 PM
i enjoy reading all y'all's in-depth thoughts and numbers regarding the game, but i'm not going down that rabbit hole....if jack is back, and we play well, i like our chances....if jack isn't back, we have to make up for that....focus, and attention to detail is key.

This team can beat any of those other teams when they're firing on all cylinders...We play who we play, and the ceiling is the roof...

I agree. Unless VT is outrageous from beyond the arc, I think we win. Just need to limit turnovers, don't get 3 point happy, and get to the rim.

freshmanjs
03-26-2019, 02:04 PM
Not unseemly, but I don't think it would be accurate. I certainly don't think anything about the way Zion has played suggests he's holding anything back. I think it's more of a small sample size issue and an improvement in the quality of competition.

If you throw out the games against opponents in the ~100 or worse range ranking (Army, Eastern Michigan, SDSU, Stetson, Hartford, Princeton, Pitt, Notre Dame, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake, NDSU) and the games in which either Zion or two of the other key freshmen didn't play (Syracuse x2, UNC x2, Wake, Va Tech, and Miami), we have had just 9 games in which we've forced a turnover rate above the national average and 11 games in which we have failed to force the national average in turnover rate.

In the 5 games in which Zion has come back, we've done it once in 4 games. So we're basically about one game off of our normal pace against quality competition.

If you are going to make those exclusions, then it probably makes more sense to look at the average turnover rates for the specific high quality teams we played in those 20 games, rather than overall national average. You're isolating top competition on one side of the equation, but then comparing it to overall competition on the other.

duke79
03-26-2019, 02:08 PM
i agree. Unless vt is outrageous from beyond the arc, i think we win. just need to limit turnovers, don't get 3 point happy, and get to the rim.

amen!

TruBlu
03-26-2019, 02:09 PM
You're forgetting that UNC's entire team was injured by the end of that. It was just poor Kenny Williams playing 1-on-5 with a bunch of Wahoos who were fouling him at every turn. That's why it makes sense that Williams is considered the greatest defender since prime Pippen despite letting Kyle Guy run free for the entire last minute of the game - he had four other players to try to guard. Things would have been way different if Cameron Johnson's legs had been attached to his body.

That's what I hear from UNC fans, anyway.

Jay Bilas agrees.

CDu
03-26-2019, 02:11 PM
If you are going to make those exclusions, then it probably makes more sense to look at the average turnover rates for the specific high quality teams we played in those 20 games, rather than overall national average. You're isolating top competition on one side of the equation, but then comparing it to overall competition on the other.

I doubt it will change the outcome. I included about 100 teams in that list (~30% of D1), which includes a pretty wide variability in turnover rate. So I doubt the line shifts that much. I can't imagine that the average turnover rate shifts so dramatically as to shift the list more than a game or two. It's certainly not likely to bump UVa at home without Jones (12.7%), Auburn (12.7%), or UNC (11.0%) over. It might shift UK (18.5% on season, 18.2% in that game) or Gonzaga (14.6% on season, 15.3% in that game). But more accurately those two games would be ~average.

Furthermore, the discussion was about needing/not needing to be elite at forcing turnovers. My cutoff was average D1. So I don't think that debating the exact line of national average makes that much difference for the purposes of the data I presented. Those games I listed would be far from elite turnover games for us.

freshmanjs
03-26-2019, 02:16 PM
I doubt it will change the outcome. I included about 100 teams in that list (~30% of D1), which includes a pretty wide variability in turnover rate. So I doubt the line shifts that much. I can't imagine that the average turnover rate shifts so dramatically as to shift the list more than a game or two. It's certainly not likely to bump UVa at home without Jones (12.7%), Auburn (12.7%), or UNC (11.0%) over. It might shift UK (18.5% on season, 18.2% in that game) or Gonzaga (14.6% on season, 15.3% in that game). But more accurately those two games would be ~average.

Furthermore, the discussion was about needing/not needing to be elite at forcing turnovers. My cutoff was average D1. So I don't think that debating the exact line of national average makes that much difference for the purposes of the data I presented. Those games I listed would be far from elite turnover games for us.

I was thinking about it more along these lines. Michigan's turnover rate is 13.3%. Achieving 16-17% against them may be "elite" rather than below average. Just as one example.

Tripping William
03-26-2019, 02:28 PM
Thatís quite a story. 😀

And so the fabled DBR puns begin . . .

Tripping William
03-26-2019, 02:30 PM
They beat UNC this year, in Chapel Hill, with an injured Diakite. They should beat UNC if they play them again.

Also, no guarantee that UNC beats a really good Auburn team in their next game.

Or that, if they do get past Auburn, they defeat their next opponent: Either a rematch with UK (to whom they lost by 8) or a match-up with a 30+ win Houston team.

CDu
03-26-2019, 02:31 PM
I was thinking about it more along these lines. Michigan's turnover rate is 13.3%. Achieving 16-17% against them may be "elite" rather than below average. Just as one example.

Yeah, looking at the individual teams on the list, I don't think it's going to shift. But I'll go ahead and do it for those 10 games.

We didn't do anything noteworthy in turnovers against UK, UCF, Notre Dame, or Gonzaga (each well with 1% of their average). We turned UVa (game 1), State, FSU (game 2), and Syracuse (game 1) over less than "expected" in those game (~2% less). We turned UNC (game 3) and Auburn over WAY less than expected (more than 5% below).

So, yeah, same result.

Note: I didn't do it for the high turnover games because I can't imagine that any team on that list has a turnover rate high enough for those not to qualify as elite turnover games.

UrinalCake
03-26-2019, 02:44 PM
They [UVA] beat UNC this year, in Chapel Hill, with an injured Diakite. They should beat UNC if they play them again.

That game was played 48 hours after UVA played us at their home, a brutal turnaround. On the flip side, Little got hurt early in that game (not a huge deal, he wasn't playing much at that point in the season) and Cam Johnson also left the game for three minutes. Of course, I have been told by my UNC friends that injuries are irrelevant, that if you can't withstand the loss of one player then you aren't a real contender and that any player who doesn't play through an injury is soft and weak. So I'd expect UVA to win in a rematch, though it would be close.

Bob Green
03-26-2019, 02:58 PM
Duke at #329 in the nation shooting 30.7% from 3-land.

Duke is shooting 41% on 3 PT FG in the NCAA Tournament. I know, I know...

1. Small sample size
2. Recency bias
3. Regression to the mean

devildeac
03-26-2019, 03:18 PM
You're forgetting that UNC's entire team was injured by the end of that. It was just poor Kenny Williams playing 1-on-5 with a bunch of Wahoos who were fouling him at every turn. That's why it makes sense that Williams is considered the greatest defender since prime Pippen despite letting Kyle Guy run free for the entire last minute of the game - he had four other players to try to guard. Things would have been way different if Cameron Johnson's legs had been attached to his body.

That's what I hear from UNC fans, anyway.

You spend waaaaay too much time on I(diot) C(entral).

:rolleyes:

devildeac
03-26-2019, 03:22 PM
Duke is shooting 41% on 3 PT FG in the NCAA Tournament. I know, I know...

1. Small sample size
2. Recency bias
3. Regression to the mean

I like your stat better;). But, it also means we may have been <30% before the NCAAT started and ranked lower than #329. :eek:

uh_no
03-26-2019, 05:24 PM
Duke is shooting 41% on 3 PT FG in the NCAA Tournament. I know, I know...

1. Small sample size
2. Recency bias
3. Regression to the mean

and that's WITh tre taking so many on sunday. A large part of that I think is RJ and Cam being a bit more conscious with their shot selection.

Either way, I don't want to see us continue to come out and jack threes from the get-go.

opening shot-selection vs UCF: 333322 (4 3's, 2 2's)
opening shot-selection vs NDS: 2323332323 (6 3's, 4 2's)


Before the opening TV timeout in the tournament, we've taken 10 3's and 6 2's. That's bogus. I'm sure coach wants them to take threes to try to open up the lane (classic use the pass to set up the run)....but those numbers are so lopsided...

Sure, take the 3 later in the clock....but with 20+ left on the clock? Make a move to get inside. If we do that successfully, and THEN get a clean pass for a kick out? Sure. Now you've accomplished a few things

- made an attempt to get a high efficiency shot
- proved to the opposing team that they're going to have to attempt to stop the drive
- still gotten the same wide open three you would have gotten 15 seconds ago


I don't MIND the threes, I'd just like us to show some token effort to get something else before we start jacking them....especially early in the game where we haven't thus far.

Nugget
03-26-2019, 05:36 PM
Now, forcing turnovers certainly makes life a lot easier. It certainly helped us beat UVa in Charlottesville, Texas Tech in MSG, and FSU in Tallahassee. I'd certainly like our chances even more if we were turning teams over 20+%. But I'd give us as good a shot as anyone in the field assuming we get and stay healthy, with or without forcing a ton of turnovers.

Duke really needed to force live-ball TOs to score against those teams since (outside the abnormal 3 point accuracy against U.Va.) their very good set defenses -- U.Va., Texas Tech and FSU are #5, #7 and #11 in effective FG% defense per Torvik -- made it so tough to score in the half-court.

Virginia Tech isn't nearly as good (#115 in effective FG% defense per Torvik), so Duke should be able to score in the half-court against them even without forcing as many TOs as we would like.

Bob Green
03-26-2019, 05:37 PM
I'm sure coach wants them to take threes to try to open up the lane (classic use the pass to set up the run)...but those numbers are so lopsided...

Sure, take the 3 later in the clock...but with 20+ left on the clock? Make a move to get inside. If we do that successfully, and THEN get a clean pass for a kick out? Sure. Now you've accomplished a few things

- made an attempt to get a high efficiency shot
- proved to the opposing team that they're going to have to attempt to stop the drive
- still gotten the same wide open three you would have gotten 15 seconds ago

I don't MIND the threes, I'd just like us to show some token effort to get something else before we start jacking them...especially early in the game where we haven't thus far.

I also desire to see the team play inside out. You layout the reasons clearly. In other words, let's run to set up the pass.

OldPhiKap
03-26-2019, 05:47 PM
You're forgetting that UNC's entire team was injured by the end of that. It was just poor Kenny Williams playing 1-on-5 with a bunch of Wahoos who were fouling him at every turn. That's why it makes sense that Williams is considered the greatest defender since prime Pippen despite letting Kyle Guy run free for the entire last minute of the game - he had four other players to try to guard. Things would have been way different if Cameron Johnson's legs had been attached to his body.

That's what I hear from UNC fans, anyway.

Careful with your dosage of IC DarkStar. Whether handling tar, dung, or honey, some of it sticks to the fingers.

Nugget
03-26-2019, 05:49 PM
and that's WITh tre taking so many on sunday. A large part of that I think is RJ and Cam being a bit more conscious with their shot selection.

Either way, I don't want to see us continue to come out and jack threes from the get-go.

opening shot-selection vs UCF: 333322 (4 3's, 2 2's)
opening shot-selection vs NDS: 2323332323 (6 3's, 4 2's)


Before the opening TV timeout in the tournament, we've taken 10 3's and 6 2's. That's bogus. I'm sure coach wants them to take threes to try to open up the lane (classic use the pass to set up the run)...but those numbers are so lopsided...

Sure, take the 3 later in the clock...but with 20+ left on the clock? Make a move to get inside. If we do that successfully, and THEN get a clean pass for a kick out? Sure. Now you've accomplished a few things

- made an attempt to get a high efficiency shot
- proved to the opposing team that they're going to have to attempt to stop the drive
- still gotten the same wide open three you would have gotten 15 seconds ago


I don't MIND the threes, I'd just like us to show some token effort to get something else before we start jacking them...especially early in the game where we haven't thus far.

Also, we've been forgoing the opportunity to draw early fouls. Given how thin Va Tech is, getting a quick foul or two on Blackshear would be a massive advantage.

uh_no
03-26-2019, 05:52 PM
Also, we've been forgoing the opportunity to draw early fouls. Given how thin Va Tech is, getting a quick foul or two on Blackshear would be a massive advantage.

another is rebounding. I don't have numbers as this would be hard to track, but I imagine a defense scrambling off a drive is less likely to be in position to box out than one who is able to stand around due to non-aggression from the offense.

CDu
03-26-2019, 06:03 PM
Duke really needed to force live-ball TOs to score against those teams since (outside the abnormal 3 point accuracy against U.Va.) their very good set defenses -- U.Va., Texas Tech and FSU are #5, #7 and #11 in effective FG% defense per Torvik -- made it so tough to score in the half-court.

Virginia Tech isn't nearly as good (#115 in effective FG% defense per Torvik), so Duke should be able to score in the half-court against them even without forcing as many TOs as we would like.

Except that we didnít actually need to do so. We beat UVa at home and FSU in the ACC Final without forcing many turnovers.

Side note: the game where we shot so well from 3 against UVa was the second game, when we also turned them over a bunch. But that was essentially a blowout.

But, yes, we should be able to score against Va Tech. We scored efficiently against them in Blacksburg despite not having Zion. The key against Va Tech is defense.

CDu
03-26-2019, 06:05 PM
another is rebounding. I don't have numbers as this would be hard to track, but I imagine a defense scrambling off a drive is less likely to be in position to box out than one who is able to stand around due to non-aggression from the offense.

Yes, Va Tech is a very mediocre rebounding team on both ends. We were really efficient on offense against them last time, but we could have done even more damage had we won the rebounding battle more convincingly (it was essentially a wash on the glass last time).

Sluggo
03-26-2019, 07:18 PM
I heard most of an interview this morning on the Doug Gottlieb show with the Virginia Tech coach. The coach said that the keys to beating Duke would be to get more shot attempts than we do, limit us to one shot per possession, and donít turn the ball over as we get easy points off turnovers. He did admit that formula applies to many games.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-26-2019, 07:20 PM
I heard most of an interview this morning on the Doug Gottlieb show with the Virginia Tech coach. The coach said that the keys to beating Duke would be to get more shot attempts than we do, limit us to one shot per possession, and donít turn the ball over as we get easy points off turnovers. He did admit that formula applies to many games.

No doubt Gottlieb begged him to beat Duke please!!!!!

Sluggo
03-26-2019, 07:41 PM
No doubt Gottlieb begged him to beat Duke please!!!!!

I believe it was Gottlieb that asked this question a week ago. ďIs it possible to like Zion but still hate Duke.Ē

Steven43
03-26-2019, 07:44 PM
No doubt Gottlieb begged him to beat Duke please!!!!!

Gottlieb is a Duke fan.

NSDukeFan
03-26-2019, 07:58 PM
Gottlieb is a Duke fan.

That would be alarming.

duketaylor
03-26-2019, 08:25 PM
We're planning, but are ticketless. Also gonna go to Nats game Sat. Looking for hotel, etc. Feels like a crapshoot so far.

duketaylor
03-26-2019, 08:31 PM
100% agree. Texas Tech was beating us for most of the game before a late comeback, as was Louisville. The first FSU game and the last UNC game were coin flips.

If we go on to win the title, we will say that we were unbeatable when healthy. But if we don't then we will undoubtedly point to the weaknesses that we have seen all season long and say that we simply couldn't overcome them and should have seen the loss coming. It was a similar story last season.


We lost to the Zags at full strength.

Wahoo2000
03-26-2019, 08:40 PM
Sure. But in the context of this discussion (can we win the title without forcing a ton of turnovers?), that's a separate point.

Any team can lose a game on the wrong day. The question being discussed is here was whether or not we have to force turnovers to be a strong contender for the title. My point was that we don't; we've still played like a 1 seed when we've had Zion even when we didn't force a ton of turnovers.

We are FAR from a lock to win a title. That was true with or without Zion, and with or without turnovers. But I'd argue that - with the team healthy - we're as likely as any other team is to win the title, and more likely than all but maybe one or two others. Regardless of any one particular facet of the game.

Don't worry, I'm pretty sure the Warriors and Bucks will not be allowed to participate. ;-)

Seriously though, whoever comes out of the west is going to be READY. If it's Michigan or Zags, I think that's Duke's biggest hurdle to a title. I'd still call Duke the clear favorite (not lock) though.

BigZ
03-26-2019, 08:43 PM
I will go Duke 82 - 74

OldPhiKap
03-26-2019, 08:54 PM
We lost to the Zags at full strength.

And they were missing their best player.

Having said that ó both teams are SO much better and different than they were in late November, and that was the third game in three games. Little to be drawn from it IMO.

CDu
03-26-2019, 08:57 PM
And they were missing their best player.

Having said that ó both teams are SO much better and different than they were in late November, and that was the third game in three games. Little to be drawn from it IMO.

They were missing Tillie, who is not their best player. He is their third-best big.

Otherwise, I agree.

-jk
03-26-2019, 09:03 PM
I hope we have a chance to worry about the Zags.

Otherwise, let's focus on VaTech, and their JRob...

-jk

OldPhiKap
03-26-2019, 09:06 PM
I hope we have a chance to worry about the Zags.

Otherwise, let's focus on VaTech, and their JRob...

-jk

Hell, Iím just worried about waking up tomorrow. Everything else is a bonus.

But yes, we have a really tough challenge Friday.

Utley
03-26-2019, 09:31 PM
We're planning, but are ticketless. Also gonna go to Nats game Sat. Looking for hotel, etc. Feels like a crapshoot so far.

I was lucky to get a ticket today for Friday. There's a separate roll call post if you want to check out other attendees. Good luck with the tickets.

Saratoga2
03-26-2019, 10:00 PM
Looks like Duke is only faqvored by 5 or 6 points. A couple of bad calls or bad luck and that margin can disappear. Got to go out and play our best for 40 minutes.

Hartford Dukie
03-26-2019, 10:43 PM
Looks like Duke is only faqvored by 5 or 6 points. A couple of bad calls or bad luck and that margin can disappear. Got to go out and play our best for 40 minutes.

Line remains at -7.5

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/scoreboard/_/date/20190329

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

duke96
03-26-2019, 11:09 PM
Line remains at -7.5

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/scoreboard/_/date/20190329

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

Interestingly, other than the Oregon game, we currently have the widest spread in our favor among all the sweet sixteen games. May the Vegas gods be right....

ndkjr70
03-26-2019, 11:25 PM
And they were missing their best player.

Having said that ó both teams are SO much better and different than they were in late November, and that was the third game in three games. Little to be drawn from it IMO.

They were missing neither their best nor their second best player.

Tillie is a solid player. He isnít Clarke or Rui.

AZLA
03-26-2019, 11:39 PM
Looks like Duke is only faqvored by 5 or 6 points. A couple of bad calls or bad luck and that margin can disappear. Got to go out and play our best for 40 minutes.

I would expect refs to be on the lookout for the charge, hook n hold, and calling it tightly. I expect at least 3 charge calls on Duke. While the line is much less than UCF, almost cut in half, I think Dukeís defense was a little underrated in terms of stopping the drive. So if they can just defend better by extending out against the outside shot ó not let anyone get on a NBA three heater like Dawkins did ó I think they can disrupt Tech better than last time. Rebounding will be huge so Zion needs to dominate rebounds on both ends and get Duke out on the break where they are best. A friend just got tickets from a business partner. I told em despite Maryland not making it, there are going to be droves upon droves of fans rooting against Duke. So we need all Duke fans to come in ready and loud to cheer on our team. Good luck!

UrinalCake
03-26-2019, 11:50 PM
I would expect refs to be on the lookout for the charge, hook n hold, and calling it tightly. I expect at least 3 charge calls on Duke.

No doubt, the fainting goat defense will be in full effect. Wouldn't surprise me if Deron Washington came by to give his old team some pointers on how to flop. And of course the announcers will continue to scream any time someone defending a Duke player falls over that it is automatically a charge no matter what.

DukieInKansas
03-27-2019, 12:56 AM
Looks like Duke is only faqvored by 5 or 6 points. A couple of bad calls or bad luck and that margin can disappear. Got to go out and play our best for 40 minutes.
A couple of calls the other way and good luck could double that margin.

juise
03-27-2019, 02:08 AM
A couple of calls the other way and good luck could double that margin.

Good thinking! With Duke already getting all of the calls :rolleyes:, they just need to see what they can do to get a couple extras. With 110% of the calls firmly in their grasp, they should be able to walk away with a W. :p

dukelifer
03-27-2019, 06:02 AM
And they were missing their best player.

Having said that ó both teams are SO much better and different than they were in late November, and that was the third game in three games. Little to be drawn from it IMO.

Third game in three days as well. So many differences. But that is far away should it even happen.

Saratoga2
03-27-2019, 06:39 AM
A couple of calls the other way and good luck could double that margin.

The point I was making is that it is a close match on paper. We need to play well and keep VT from having their best game. Errors or bad calls could hurt us enough to be the difference. Sure it could go the other way and I hope it does.

Troublemaker
03-27-2019, 06:55 AM
100% agree. Texas Tech was beating us for most of the game before a late comeback, as was Louisville. The first FSU game and the last UNC game were coin flips.

If we go on to win the title, we will say that we were unbeatable when healthy. But if we don't then we will undoubtedly point to the weaknesses that we have seen all season long and say that we simply couldn't overcome them and should have seen the loss coming. It was a similar story last season.

Last season, Duke was 29-7 before the loss to Kansas, won no conference championship, and played the same or even better when Marvin was out with injury. This season, we are currently 31-5, will raise a banner with the ACC championship, and had 4 losses highly impacted by injury to Zion and previously to Tre/Cam. Not sure I see the comparison all that well.

But, like you, I am concerned about the relative lack of turnovers forced on defense recently and am wondering whether this is the same team as Duke pre-Zion injury. The thing that was striking about the UCF game is that a mediocre offensive team like UCF was able to run their sets and their plays. I think earlier in the season, Duke's ball pressure and ball denial would've made it difficult for UCF to run their stuff, and if UCF had continued to run their stuff, we would've forced more than 11 turnovers from them. I think we would've forced 15+ turnovers by being in the passing lanes and with ball pressure on their main PG Terrell Allen; instead, Allen had 7 assists to only 2 turnovers!

It's not as if UCF protects the ball well. Coming into the game, they had a streak of 4 consecutive games with an offensive turnover rate above 22%; Duke broke the streak with a 16.3% forced. For the season, UCF ranked 118th in the nation in offensive turnover rate, and in conference play only, they averaged an 18.3% turnover rate. All numbers from kenpom.


Don't worry, I'm pretty sure the Warriors and Bucks will not be allowed to participate. ;-)

Seriously though, whoever comes out of the west is going to be READY. If it's Michigan or Zags, I think that's Duke's biggest hurdle to a title. I'd still call Duke the clear favorite (not lock) though.

KenPom has UVA as the favorite and Duke as the 4th favorite: https://kenpom.com/blog/2019-sweet-16-probabilities/

BPI has UVA as the strong favorite (31.6% chance) and Duke as the 3rd favorite: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/tournament

Any particular reason why you disagree with the statistical systems?

The bracket looks great for UVA. UVA is the #1 kenpom team, and #2, #3, #4, and #5 are all the way on the other side of the bracket. (This was true pre-tournament, too, in case anyone is wondering).

Steven43
03-27-2019, 07:22 AM
KenPom has UVA as the favorite and Duke as the 4th favorite: https://kenpom.com/blog/2019-sweet-16-probabilities/

BPI has UVA as the strong favorite (31.6% chance) and Duke as the 3rd favorite: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/tournament

Any particular reason why you disagree with the statistical systems?.
His particular reason might be the eye test rather than statistics. How well has KenPom and BPI done the last 5-10 years in predicting the Final Four as well as the eventual champion?

killerleft
03-27-2019, 08:29 AM
and that's WITh tre taking so many on sunday. A large part of that I think is RJ and Cam being a bit more conscious with their shot selection.

Either way, I don't want to see us continue to come out and jack threes from the get-go.

opening shot-selection vs UCF: 333322 (4 3's, 2 2's)
opening shot-selection vs NDS: 2323332323 (6 3's, 4 2's)


Before the opening TV timeout in the tournament, we've taken 10 3's and 6 2's. That's bogus. I'm sure coach wants them to take threes to try to open up the lane (classic use the pass to set up the run)...but those numbers are so lopsided...

Sure, take the 3 later in the clock...but with 20+ left on the clock? Make a move to get inside. If we do that successfully, and THEN get a clean pass for a kick out? Sure. Now you've accomplished a few things

- made an attempt to get a high efficiency shot
- proved to the opposing team that they're going to have to attempt to stop the drive
- still gotten the same wide open three you would have gotten 15 seconds ago


I don't MIND the threes, I'd just like us to show some token effort to get something else before we start jacking them...especially early in the game where we haven't thus far.

We're a Nke Store three-jackin' team-
Wanna be, and not only seem.
K's the number one teacher in the NCAA,
If you find you don't like it, get out of his way!

- sung to the tune of an ancient anti-war dirge

Sometimes, the ex-point guard is inscrutable. We didn't earn five rings like he did, and he'll earn another one if his guys loosen up and play. Playing loose and to win is more important than almost any strategy. Maybe that's part of the message.

Troublemaker
03-27-2019, 08:45 AM
His particular reason might be the eye test rather than statistics.

Well, duh. I was hoping for specifics, especially since he's a UVA fan. What is he seeing from UVA to reject favorite status?

BTW, I'm an eye test guy, but when #1 is on one side of the bracket and #2, #3, #4, and #5 are all on the other side, then #1 is the favorite.

Put another way, if Duke and UVA swapped places in the bracket, I'd make Duke the favorite.


How well has KenPom and BPI done the last 5-10 years in predicting the Final Four as well as the eventual champion?

Probably as well or better than any single person's eye test. Again, I say this as an eye test person.


The point I was making is that it is a close match on paper. We need to play well and keep VT from having their best game. Errors or bad calls could hurt us enough to be the difference. Sure it could go the other way and I hope it does.

This is true from here on out. No surprise here.

53n206
03-27-2019, 09:02 AM
Also, let's hope the refs call a fair game.

CDu
03-27-2019, 09:15 AM
But, like you, I am concerned about the relative lack of turnovers forced on defense recently and am wondering whether this is the same team as Duke pre-Zion injury. The thing that was striking about the UCF game is that a mediocre offensive team like UCF was able to run their sets and their plays. I think earlier in the season, Duke's ball pressure and ball denial would've made it difficult for UCF to run their stuff, and if UCF had continued to run their stuff, we would've forced more than 11 turnovers from them. I think we would've forced 15+ turnovers by being in the passing lanes and with ball pressure on their main PG Terrell Allen; instead, Allen had 7 assists to only 2 turnovers!

It's not as if UCF protects the ball well. Coming into the game, they had a streak of 4 consecutive games with an offensive turnover rate above 22%; Duke broke the streak with a 16.3% forced. For the season, UCF ranked 118th in the nation in offensive turnover rate, and in conference play only, they averaged an 18.3% turnover rate. All numbers from kenpom.

I agree with you that the narrative for this year's team will be different from last year's team, regardless of outcome. But I do disagree about the turnovers. We've been turning teams over about as much post-Zion return as before when you take into account competition. Yes, we steamrolled through the patsies in November/December forcing a ton of turnovers. But against better competition (top ~100) with Zion, we've been pretty much 50/50 on good turnover games versus bad. Since Zion came back, we've had 4 such games, and 1 good turnover game versus 3 bad. So, basically, the angst appears to be entirely due to one bad game (the UCF game). I'm not sure I'm ready to worry about our chances based off of one bad game.

Remember: what has made us a great defensive team this year isn't turnovers. It's the fact that we are elite at defending both 2pt and 3pt field goal attempts, and elite at not sending teams to the line. We've beaten plenty of great teams without turning them over much (UVa, UNC, FSU, Kentucky).
We've played even with another great team without turning them over much (Gonzaga).

Turnovers have been a transient part of our game all season. It's not a recent issue: we've been an average to below-average turnover team since the first Syracuse game, and that hasn't stopped us from sweeping UVa, beating UNC, and beating FSU. It's great when we force them, but we've got a pretty darn good resume without them.


KenPom has UVA as the favorite and Duke as the 4th favorite: https://kenpom.com/blog/2019-sweet-16-probabilities/

BPI has UVA as the strong favorite (31.6% chance) and Duke as the 3rd favorite: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/tournament

Any particular reason why you disagree with the statistical systems?

The bracket looks great for UVA. UVA is the #1 kenpom team, and #2, #3, #4, and #5 are all the way on the other side of the bracket. (This was true pre-tournament, too, in case anyone is wondering).

I think those stats are skewed a bit by injuries. They don't take into account the fact that Duke played 6 of the last 11 games without Zion, the last 5 games without another key rotation player, and the first Syracuse game without two starters. So I think those data are understating Duke's case. KenPom, for example, has Duke as the #4 team in the country based on full-season resume. That's probably inaccurate if Duke is healthy moving forward.

That said, I do agree with you that UVa has the easiest route to the championship. But I don't think they're nearly as much a favorite as those two models suggest.

Fivethirtyeight, for example, gives Duke a 20% chance of winning it all, compared with UVa's 18% and Gonzaga's 14%. They give Duke and UVa both a 53-55% chance of the Final Four and a 1/3 chance of making the final, with Duke favored in that final if they both get there. Sagarin thinks Duke is #1 too, with UVa #2, Gonzaga #3, UNC #4, Michigan St #5, and Kentucky #6. Warren Nolan's EloChess has Duke 1, UVa 2, UNC 3, Kentucky 4, and Tennessee 5, Michigan St 6, and Auburn 7. So it's far from consensus that UVa is the favorite, much less the strong favorite.

Now, I certainly don't think Duke is any sort of huge favorite to win the title. I didn't think that before the tournament began, either. But I'd say they are in the 20% chance range, with UVa also about 20% and those two being the best picks of any individual teams left in the field.

I think the consternation folks are having is based off of just one bad performance, and I'm not ready to write off the strong performances of the previous four games based off of one bad game.

Kfanarmy
03-27-2019, 09:21 AM
Last season, Duke was 29-7 before the loss to Kansas, won no conference championship, and played the same or even better when Marvin was out with injury. This season, we are currently 31-5, will raise a banner with the ACC championship, and had 4 losses highly impacted by injury to Zion and previously to Tre/Cam. Not sure I see the comparison all that well.

But, like you, I am concerned about the relative lack of turnovers forced on defense recently and am wondering whether this is the same team as Duke pre-Zion injury. The thing that was striking about the UCF game is that a mediocre offensive team like UCF was able to run their sets and their plays. I think earlier in the season, Duke's ball pressure and ball denial would've made it difficult for UCF to run their stuff, and if UCF had continued to run their stuff, we would've forced more than 11 turnovers from them. I think we would've forced 15+ turnovers by being in the passing lanes and with ball pressure on their main PG Terrell Allen; instead, Allen had 7 assists to only 2 turnovers!

It's not as if UCF protects the ball well. Coming into the game, they had a streak of 4 consecutive games with an offensive turnover rate above 22%; Duke broke the streak with a 16.3% forced. For the season, UCF ranked 118th in the nation in offensive turnover rate, and in conference play only, they averaged an 18.3% turnover rate. All numbers from kenpom.



KenPom has UVA as the favorite and Duke as the 4th favorite: https://kenpom.com/blog/2019-sweet-16-probabilities/

BPI has UVA as the strong favorite (31.6% chance) and Duke as the 3rd favorite: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi/_/view/tournament

Any particular reason why you disagree with the statistical systems?

The bracket looks great for UVA. UVA is the #1 kenpom team, and #2, #3, #4, and #5 are all the way on the other side of the bracket. (This was true pre-tournament, too, in case anyone is wondering).

Sometimes you just have to overcome and accept the fact that the other teams luck was off the charts in a game. There were plenty of instances in the UCF game when Duke got the ball out of a UCF players hands and it somehow managed to find its way to another UCF player. Some of that was a lot of hard work and energy. Some of it was just dumb luck. Combine that with Aubrey seeing a hoop as big as the ocean in that game, and the defense looks much worse than it was. He was very well guarded on some of those makes.

IMO, there have been several games this year when Duke has created a lot of havoc with its D, and they didn't GET near the turnovers that they likely should have. If either Aubrey shoots at a normal clip or the ball bounces differently on a handful of steal attempts Duke wins that game by 20. Fortunately you can't fully predict the game with stats.

robed deity
03-27-2019, 09:26 AM
Sometimes you just have to overcome and accept the fact that the other teams luck was off the charts in a game. There were plenty of instances in the UCF game when Duke got the ball out of a UCF players hands and it somehow managed to find its way to another UCF player. Some of that was a lot of hard work and energy. Some of it was just dumb luck. Combine that with Aubrey seeing a hoop as big as the ocean in that game, and the defense looks much worse than it was. He was very well guarded on some of those makes.

IMO, there have been several games this year when Duke has created a lot of havoc with its D, and they didn't GET near the turnovers that they likely should have. If either Aubrey shoots at a normal clip or the ball bounces differently on a handful of steal attempts Duke wins that game by 20. Fortunately you can't fully predict the game with stats.

I agree with this, and a couple examples come to mind. One was down the stretch when Zion knocked it away from Fall near the sideline and Tre almost got to it but couldn't quite retrieve it. Definitely would have been a run out. Another was when Duke was trapping in the backcourt and Zion slipped (why has he been slipping so much, btw?),turning a possible turnover and score into a easy score for them the other way.

Kfanarmy
03-27-2019, 09:39 AM
I agree with this, and a couple examples come to mind. One was down the stretch when Zion knocked it away from Fall near the sideline and Tre almost got to it but couldn't quite retrieve it. Definitely would have been a run out. Another was when Duke was trapping in the backcourt and Zion slipped (why has he been slipping so much, btw?),turning a possible turnover and score into a easy score for them the other way.

Makes me wonder if either 1) he's being a bit careful which is creating balance problems or 2) if the soles of the new shoes are designed to slip before putting too much stress on his joints.

Tooold
03-27-2019, 09:40 AM
Sometimes you just have to overcome and accept the fact that the other teams luck was off the charts in a game. . Combine that with Aubrey seeing a hoop as big as the ocean in that game, and the defense looks much worse than it was. He was very well guarded on some of those makes.
.

Yes...I hope that we donít have any more opposing players who see the hoop that big, or have a Personal Best game. I also hope the refs havenít been watching ESPN enough to decide they need to look for more offensive fouls on Duke.

And the absence of another Tacko should help our drives to the hoop immensely.

COYS
03-27-2019, 09:41 AM
Another was when Duke was trapping in the backcourt and Zion slipped (why has he been slipping so much, btw?),turning a possible turnover and score into a easy score for them the other way.

If I recall correctly, in this particular instance, the VCU guard slipped and fell first, which means the floor was probably slick in that spot to begin with. Add the sweat from the VCU guard to the mix and it's not all that strange that Zion fell.

tbyers11
03-27-2019, 09:42 AM
I agree with this, and a couple examples come to mind. One was down the stretch when Zion knocked it away from Fall near the sideline and Tre almost got to it but couldn't quite retrieve it. Definitely would have been a run out. Another was when Duke was trapping in the backcourt and Zion slipped (why has he been slipping so much, btw?),turning a possible turnover and score into a easy score for them the other way.

In this particular case, Zion slipped because UCF didn't wipe up the floor well after the timeout that immediately preceded this play. Their player, Allen I believe, slipped first and then when Zion went to trap the fallen defender he slipped as well.

robed deity
03-27-2019, 09:43 AM
If I recall correctly, in this particular instance, the VCU guard slipped and fell first, which means the floor was probably slick in that spot to begin with. Add the sweat from the VCU guard to the mix and it's not all that strange that Zion fell.

Ah, right, I had forgotten that.

Tooold
03-27-2019, 09:43 AM
I agree with this, and a couple examples come to mind. One was down the stretch when Zion knocked it away from Fall near the sideline and Tre almost got to it but couldn't quite retrieve it. Definitely would have been a run out. Another was when Duke was trapping in the backcourt and Zion slipped (why has he been slipping so much, btw?),turning a possible turnover and score into a easy score for them the other way.
There seemed to be a lot of slipping by other players as well (note the non-travel call when the CF player was on his back). Could humidity have made the court slippery?

wilson
03-27-2019, 09:47 AM
...Could humidity have made the court slippery?Are you suggesting that Columbia, SC is swampy, sodden pit?
Because I'm not...

Steven43
03-27-2019, 09:53 AM
Now, I certainly don't think Duke is any sort of huge favorite to win the title. I didn't think that before the tournament began, either. But I'd say they are in the 20% chance range, with UVa also about 20% and those two being the best picks of any individual teams left in the field.

Kind of a bummer to have so much excitement and anticipation over a 1 out of 5 chance. So basically, Duke has about the same odds of winning the championship as Tre does of making an unguarded 3-pointer. That is not a comforting thought.

CDu
03-27-2019, 09:58 AM
Sometimes you just have to overcome and accept the fact that the other teams luck was off the charts in a game. There were plenty of instances in the UCF game when Duke got the ball out of a UCF players hands and it somehow managed to find its way to another UCF player. Some of that was a lot of hard work and energy. Some of it was just dumb luck. Combine that with Aubrey seeing a hoop as big as the ocean in that game, and the defense looks much worse than it was. He was very well guarded on some of those makes.

IMO, there have been several games this year when Duke has created a lot of havoc with its D, and they didn't GET near the turnovers that they likely should have. If either Aubrey shoots at a normal clip or the ball bounces differently on a handful of steal attempts Duke wins that game by 20. Fortunately you can't fully predict the game with stats.

Turnovers are inherently noisy stats. And since the first FSU game, we've not really been a team that consistently forces turnovers. What we have done fairly consistently is defend both 2pt FGA and 3pt FGA. Just 7 times in the last 21 games has a team topped the national average on 3s, and just 6 times have they done so on 2s.

That said, last game was a HUGE outlier on 3s. UCF shot 50% from 3, which is 16% above the national average and 20% above what we typically allow.
It was also 6% higher than we've allowed in any other game this calendar year. The only other time we allowed over 45% was the Gonzaga game (52.6% back in November). If that happens again, obviously that's a huge concern. Hopefully we'll do a better job defending the 3s moving forward.

robed deity
03-27-2019, 10:01 AM
Kind of a bummer to have so much excitement and anticipation over a 1 out of 5 chance. So basically, Duke has about the same odds of winning the championship as Tre does of making an unguarded 3-pointer. That is not a comforting thought.

But UNC has about a 9 percent chance, roughly the odds Steph Curry misses a free throw. A little more comforting!

Phredd3
03-27-2019, 10:09 AM
But UNC has about a 9 percent chance, roughly the odds Steph Curry misses a free throw. A little more comforting!

Not comforting enough for me. I'll be comfortable AFTER they go away, not before. Or at least, more comfortable.

CDu
03-27-2019, 10:21 AM
Kind of a bummer to have so much excitement and anticipation over a 1 out of 5 chance. So basically, Duke has about the same odds of winning the championship as Tre does of making an unguarded 3-pointer. That is not a comforting thought.

Yes, but that's true pretty much every year. It's very rare for one team to be head and shoulders above the field. At most, the best teams have a 1 in 3 chance against the field, MAYBE a 2 in 5 chance. Winning 6 straight games, with 4 or 5 of them being against really good opponents, is just hard to do. You really shouldn't be comforted in your team's chances of winning the tournament in ANY year.

Steven43
03-27-2019, 10:25 AM
But UNC has about a 9 percent chance, roughly the odds Steph Curry misses a free throw. A little more comforting!

There yaí go!

NSDukeFan
03-27-2019, 10:40 AM
Yes, but that's true pretty much every year. It's very rare for one team to be head and shoulders above the field. At most, the best teams have a 1 in 3 chance against the field, MAYBE a 2 in 5 chance. Winning 6 straight games, with 4 or 5 of them being against really good opponents, is just hard to do. You really shouldn't be comforted in your team's chances of winning the tournament in ANY year.

Hence the board’s paranoia every time Duke struggles. Since Duke’s best teams have a greater than 80% chance of not being NCAAT champions, there are a lot of opportunities to uncover the reason(s) the team doesn’t win its last game.

Troublemaker
03-27-2019, 10:44 AM
I agree with you that the narrative for this year's team will be different from last year's team, regardless of outcome. But I do disagree about the turnovers. We've been turning teams over about as much post-Zion return as before when you take into account competition. Yes, we steamrolled through the patsies in November/December forcing a ton of turnovers. But against better competition (top ~100) with Zion, we've been pretty much 50/50 on good turnover games versus bad. Since Zion came back, we've had 4 such games, and 1 good turnover game versus 3 bad. So, basically, the angst appears to be entirely due to one bad game (the UCF game). I'm not sure I'm ready to worry about our chances based off of one bad game.

Remember: what has made us a great defensive team this year isn't turnovers. It's the fact that we are elite at defending both 2pt and 3pt field goal attempts, and elite at not sending teams to the line. We've beaten plenty of great teams without turning them over much (UVa, UNC, FSU, Kentucky).
We've played even with another great team without turning them over much (Gonzaga).

Turnovers have been a transient part of our game all season. It's not a recent issue: we've been an average to below-average turnover team since the first Syracuse game, and that hasn't stopped us from sweeping UVa, beating UNC, and beating FSU. It's great when we force them, but we've got a pretty darn good resume without them.

I dunno, man. Prior to Zion's injury against UNC, Duke had a defensive turnover rate of 19.5 or above in 4 out of the 5 games prior, 6 out of the 8 games prior, and 9 out of the 13 games prior. (All 13 games prior to Zion's injury were ACC games, the neutral site game against Texas Tech, or St. John's). This included forcing lots of turnovers @UVA, @FSU, @Lville, and against TTU on a neutral site. Since Zion's injury, we've only managed to hit that defensive turnover rate in 2 out of 11 games. And, as mentioned, only 1 out of 5 games since Zion's returned.

That said, given all the small samples, I think your subsetting and interpretation of the data is valid, perhaps even better than mine. But, I just flat out believe we would've forced more turnovers earlier in the season against UCF and NDSU. And UNC and FSU in the ACC tourney for that matter. I think something's off, but we can agree to disagree.

BTW, there's a really good reason I'm harping on the defensive turnover rate, but I'm too superstitious to reveal it now. If Duke beats VaTech, I'll explain on Friday night why Duke really needs to re-gain our turnover-forcing ability. (Not that one needs to be Sherlock Holmes to crack this mystery, haha).



Fivethirtyeight, for example, gives Duke a 20% chance of winning it all, compared with UVa's 18% and Gonzaga's 14%. They give Duke and UVa both a 53-55% chance of the Final Four and a 1/3 chance of making the final, with Duke favored in that final if they both get there. Sagarin thinks Duke is #1 too, with UVa #2, Gonzaga #3, UNC #4, Michigan St #5, and Kentucky #6. Warren Nolan's EloChess has Duke 1, UVa 2, UNC 3, Kentucky 4, and Tennessee 5, Michigan St 6, and Auburn 7. So it's far from consensus that UVa is the favorite, much less the strong favorite.

Now, I certainly don't think Duke is any sort of huge favorite to win the title. I didn't think that before the tournament began, either. But I'd say they are in the 20% chance range, with UVa also about 20% and those two being the best picks of any individual teams left in the field.

I think the consternation folks are having is based off of just one bad performance, and I'm not ready to write off the strong performances of the previous four games based off of one bad game.

I agree with you that the two models probably underrate Duke because of the injuries. (Although BPI advertises that it takes into account injuries). That said, I can't see why Duke and UVA would be about the same unless you think Duke is clearly better than UVA. If you think Duke and UVA are roughly equal teams (which you might not), and UVA has the easier path, UVA should have the edge.

Hancock 4 Duke
03-27-2019, 10:52 AM
Is it me or has Zion seemed a little less coordinated lately? I've noticed several times in the past few games where he has lost his dribble driving into the lane, or otherwise slipped. Could be recency bias because I know the floor in Columbia was more slick than usual, but that doesn't really explain the ballhandling.

J4Kop99
03-27-2019, 10:58 AM
Makes me wonder if either 1) he's being a bit careful which is creating balance problems or 2) if the soles of the new shoes are designed to slip before putting too much stress on his joints.

I'd have to believe that specific play was due to moisture/liquid on the court. It happened directly in front of the UCF bench right after a timeout. Clearly someone did not clean up or wipe up properly. If you remember, it was the UCF player that first slipped and then Zion slipped as he was running over to tie the ball up.

DukieInKansas
03-27-2019, 11:04 AM
The point I was making is that it is a close match on paper. We need to play well and keep VT from having their best game. Errors or bad calls could hurt us enough to be the difference. Sure it could go the other way and I hope it does.

I know - I just couldn't take off my rose colored glasses? (Or should that be Duke Blue colored glasses?)

CDu
03-27-2019, 11:20 AM
I dunno, man. Prior to Zion's injury against UNC, Duke had a defensive turnover rate of 19.5 or above in 4 out of the 5 games prior, 6 out of the 8 games prior, and 9 out of the 13 games prior. (All 13 games prior to Zion's injury were ACC games, the neutral site game against Texas Tech, or St. John's). This included forcing lots of turnovers @UVA, @FSU, @Lville, and against TTU on a neutral site. Since Zion's injury, we've only managed to hit that defensive turnover rate in 2 out of 11 games. And, as mentioned, only 1 out of 5 games since Zion's returned.

That said, given all the small samples, I think your subsetting and interpretation of the data is valid, perhaps even better than mine. But, I just flat out believe we would've forced more turnovers earlier in the season against UCF and NDSU. And UNC and FSU in the ACC tourney for that matter. I think something's off, but we can agree to disagree.

BTW, there's a really good reason I'm harping on the defensive turnover rate, but I'm too superstitious to reveal it now. If Duke beats VaTech, I'll explain on Friday night why Duke really needs to re-gain our turnover-forcing ability. (Not that one needs to be Sherlock Holmes to crack this mystery, haha).



I agree with you that the two models probably underrate Duke because of the injuries. (Although BPI advertises that it takes into account injuries). That said, I can't see why Duke and UVA would be about the same unless you think Duke is clearly better than UVA. If you think Duke and UVA are roughly equal teams (which you might not), and UVA has the easier path, UVA should have the edge.

I think the only place where we disagree on this is on the term “need” here. Our resume with Zion plus subpar turnover rates is pretty impressive. The only losses were a one-possession game in November to another 1 seed who shot 52.6% from 3 that day and an overtime loss to ab 8/9 seed without two of our starters. And it includes wins over the other two 1 seeds (once without our PG), a 2 seed, a 4 seed, and a 5 seed. That is wins over 5 of the remaining 15 teams in the field, and all but the one without our PG were neutral-site games! So I definitely don’t think we NEED to get turnovers to win the title.

Now, I obviously WANT more turnovers. Life would of course be a lot easier if we do. I think I may know what your logic is, so will be interested to hear it. But I don’t think it is critical to our success, just very helpful. We have LOTS of avenues to success, and forcing turnovers is just one of them.

As for Duke/UVa discussion, I think we are better but they have a slightly easier path. So I think their chances are about the same as ours.

Side note, but I would throw out the NDSU game. We called off the dogs VERY early in that one. Zion didn’t play the last 9 minutes or so, and none of the starters were playing down the stretch at all. Only Barrett was in at all in the last 5 or 6 minutes.

robed deity
03-27-2019, 11:24 AM
I dunno, man. Prior to Zion's injury against UNC, Duke had a defensive turnover rate of 19.5 or above in 4 out of the 5 games prior, 6 out of the 8 games prior, and 9 out of the 13 games prior. (All 13 games prior to Zion's injury were ACC games, the neutral site game against Texas Tech, or St. John's). This included forcing lots of turnovers @UVA, @FSU, @Lville, and against TTU on a neutral site. Since Zion's injury, we've only managed to hit that defensive turnover rate in 2 out of 11 games. And, as mentioned, only 1 out of 5 games since Zion's returned.

That said, given all the small samples, I think your subsetting and interpretation of the data is valid, perhaps even better than mine. But, I just flat out believe we would've forced more turnovers earlier in the season against UCF and NDSU. And UNC and FSU in the ACC tourney for that matter. I think something's off, but we can agree to disagree.

BTW, there's a really good reason I'm harping on the defensive turnover rate, but I'm too superstitious to reveal it now. If Duke beats VaTech, I'll explain on Friday night why Duke really needs to re-gain our turnover-forcing ability. (Not that one needs to be Sherlock Holmes to crack this mystery, haha).



I agree with you that the two models probably underrate Duke because of the injuries. (Although BPI advertises that it takes into account injuries). That said, I can't see why Duke and UVA would be about the same unless you think Duke is clearly better than UVA. If you think Duke and UVA are roughly equal teams (which you might not), and UVA has the easier path, UVA should have the edge.

I'd be lying if I didn't share your concern somewhat, but Duke DID turn over NDSU at a rate higher than their average. There was a 10-15 segment in that game where I thought the D was near suffocating before the subs came in, albeit against a mediocre team.

And you don't have to say, but I'll guess it's because IF Duke beats VA Tech, Duke will face either LSU or Mich State, 2 teams who don't take very good care of the ball. And if Duke can't turn them over, that could be an issue.

BandAlum83
03-27-2019, 11:32 AM
Hell, Iím just worried about waking up tomorrow. Everything else is a bonus.

But yes, we have a really tough challenge Friday.

I bet ďReallyOldPhiKapĒ and ďAncientPhiKapĒ are available screen names.

Jk, can you help him out here?

duke79
03-27-2019, 11:35 AM
Is it me or has Zion seemed a little less coordinated lately? I've noticed several times in the past few games where he has lost his dribble driving into the lane, or otherwise slipped. Could be recency bias because I know the floor in Columbia was more slick than usual, but that doesn't really explain the ballhandling.

Yea, I noticed the same thing during the UCF game (and I mentioned it previously in this thread) that Zion seemed to be slipping a lot and losing his footing. Not sure if the floor was unusually slippery or the treads on the bottom of his shoes are not adequate (I would assume Nike tests their tread designs?) or maybe Zion just pivots so quickly with a lot of force behind each pivot that he more easily loses traction?). But I think it is a concern that he gets injured again, with the slips, and he does seem to slip more than the other players on the Duke team. I don't think he is less coordinated lately but something seems to be going on.

roywhite
03-27-2019, 11:46 AM
I bet “ReallyOldPhiKap” and “AncientPhiKap” are available screen names.

Jk, can you help him out here?

Much better venue than that badly lit overgrown Quonset hut in Blacksburg.

Additionally, the young guys now understand the intensity of this whole process and the need to come out strong.

Duke by double digits. High degree of confidence.

Now my crystal ball is a little cloudy about Sunday, but I'll settle for the "one game at a time" outlook.

UrinalCake
03-27-2019, 11:51 AM
Not sure if the floor was unusually slippery or the treads on the bottom of his shoes are not adequate (I would assume Nike tests their tread designs?) or maybe Zion just pivots so quickly with a lot of force behind each pivot that he more easily loses traction?).

I thought I gleaned from various social media outlets that after the blowout in the Paul George shoes, Zion moved to wearing Kyries in the ACC tournament, and has been wearing LeBrons in the NCAAT. I'm not at all a sneakerhead so someone please correct me if I am wrong. But I do wonder if the shoe changes have affected him. He obviously practices in them too, but it's not the same as playing at game speed.

wgl1228
03-27-2019, 12:07 PM
Uh oh, Ty Outlaw with a marijuana possession charge. Will he play?

http://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2019/march/27/ty-outlaw-charged-misdemeanor-marijuana-possession

UrinalCake
03-27-2019, 12:12 PM
Uh oh, Ty Outlaw with a marijuana possession charge. Will he play?

http://www.thekeyplay.com/content/2019/march/27/ty-outlaw-charged-misdemeanor-marijuana-possession


I hope he doesn't light it up against us.

Lots of people are high on Virginia Tech right now.

He's a tough opponent, to be perfectly blunt.