Chalk

[pfrduke]

Is this the chalkiest tournament since the field expanded? The sweet 16 will have (if results hold), all of the 1-3 seeds, 2 4 seeds, a 5, and just one double digit team. I can’t remmeber the last year that the top 12 all advanced to the second weekend. Should mean some great games next weekend.

[Acymetric]

Seems like it has to be. I've not looked (maybe I will after this post, but I'm not ready to commit to it yet), but this pretty much has to be the most top 5 seeds in a Sweet 16. Probably the most top 4 even with Auburn. It might be the most or tied for most top 8 seeds (top half of the bracket). I've been mulling over what the best way to calculate "chalkiness" is and haven't decided but those seem like decent starting points.

[Wander]

Is this the chalkiest tournament since the field expanded? The sweet 16 will have (if results hold), all of the 1-3 seeds, 2 4 seeds, a 5, and just one double digit team. I can’t remmeber the last year that the top 12 all advanced to the second weekend. Should mean some great games next weekend.

Tied. If Oregon wins, 2009 had the exact same Sweet 16: a Pac-12 12 seed, a 5 seed, and the rest 1, 2, 3, or 4s.

I was able to remember so quickly because I remember associating UNC winning the title with a boring tournament, and Duke winning the title the next year with a really fun tournament. Let's hope the same pattern doesn't hold.

[Acymetric]

Tied. If Oregon wins, 2009 had the exact same Sweet 16: a Pac-12 12 seed, a 5 seed, and the rest 1, 2, 3, or 4s.

I was able to remember so quickly because I remember associating UNC winning the title with a boring tournament, and Duke winning the title the next year with a really fun tournament. Let's hope the same pattern doesn't hold.

Mild cardiac episodes a few hours ago aside, this HAS been kind of a boring tournament. Not much OT action either.

[Troublemaker]

The 5 seed Auburn was generally considered a stronger team than the 4 seed Kansas.

Additionally, the 12 seed Oregon was preseason top-15, won its conference tournament in dominant fashion, and was a trendy pick to advance to the Sweet 16 over 4 seed KSU and 5 seed Wiscy.

In other words, this really may have been the top 16 teams by perception (and/or the top 16 teams, period) that advanced to the Sweet 16.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Is this the chalkiest tournament since the field expanded? The sweet 16 will have (if results hold), all of the 1-3 seeds, 2 4 seeds, a 5, and just one double digit team. I can’t remmeber the last year that the top 12 all advanced to the second weekend. Should mean some great games next weekend.

Yes, definitely a chalky mcchalkster bracket.

May have been "boring" in the first two rounds, but the S16 is going to be a blood bath. With 14 of the top 16 seeds left, no one is safe.

This is going to be one helluva exciting second weekend.

[TruBlu]

There’s a guy at one of my customer sites who merely picks chalk for his entire bracket every year. He wins the pool about 3 out of every 4 years. Picking upsets is difficult, especially for folks who only get involved at tournament time, and sometimes make their picks based on mascots or school colors.

[Wander]

There’s a guy at one of my customer sites who merely picks chalk for his entire bracket every year. He wins the pool about 3 out of every 4 years.

This is exactly why upset bonus points need to be standard in bracket pools.

[Acymetric]

This is exactly why upset bonus points need to be standard in bracket pools.

My preference to fix this is not bonus points for upsets, but just to weigh each game equally. Each correct pick is one point, regardless of round. This way the bulk of your points comes from the most fun/chaotic part of the tournament (the first weekend).

[Neals384]

Hey, those 9 seeds rock - they were 4-0 against the 8 seeds!:rolleyes:

[J4Kop99]

It's not only that it's been almost all chalk-- what is possibly even more surprising is the margin of victory. Most of the R32 games weren't even close. 11 teams won by double digits (this doesn't even include Tenn who were up 26 or VT who won by 9)

[Billy Dat]

We have played 12 total games against this chalky Sweet 16...a full third of our schedule to date...good prep.

[JetpackJesus]

The 5 seed Auburn was generally considered a stronger team than the 4 seed Kansas.

Additionally, the 12 seed Oregon was preseason top-15, won its conference tournament in dominant fashion, and was a trendy pick to advance to the Sweet 16 over 4 seed KSU and 5 seed Wiscy.

In other words, this really may have been the top 16 teams by perception (and/or the top 16 teams, period) that advanced to the Sweet 16.

Per ESPN (http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26356002/betting-favorites-made-history-round-32), this Round of 32 is the first one since the expansion to 64 teams where all 16 betting favorites won. It nearly happened three other times ('91, '95, '09) when 15 of the 16 betting favorites won. As Troublemaker correctly noted, Auburn was favored over Kansas despite being the lower seed.

[Acymetric]

Per ESPN (http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/26356002/betting-favorites-made-history-round-32), this Round of 32 is the first one since the expansion to 64 teams where all 16 betting favorites won. It nearly happened three other times ('91, '95, '09) when 15 of the 16 betting favorites won. As Troublemaker correctly noted, Auburn was favored over Kansas despite being the lower seed.

So, tied for chalkiest ever going by seed only...and stands alone as chalkiest ever going by betting lines. Sounds about right.

[devildeac]

Rock, chalk, no Jayhawk?

[crimsondevil]

We have played 12 total games against this chalky Sweet 16...a full third of our schedule to date...good prep.

Against 8 of the 15 other teams, with an 8-4 record. I was curious about the other teams, so I went through and tried to catalog:





Duke
UVA
UNC
FSU
VPI
MSU
Mich
Pur
UK
UT
LSU
AU
Gonzaga
UH
TT
Ore


Duke
-
LL
WWL
LL
W



L


L
W

L



UVA
WW
-
L
LW
LL













UNC
LLW
W
-
L
L

W

W



L





FSU
WW
WL
W
-
LL


L


L







VPI
L
WW
W
WW
-


L










MSU





-
LLL
LW










Mich


L


WWW
-
L










Pur



W
W
WL
W
-










UK
W

L





-
LWW
W
LL






UT








WLL
-
W
WW
L





LSU



W




L
L
-
L

W




AU
W







WW
LL
W
-






Gonzaga
L

W






W


-





UH










L


-

L


TT
W













-



Ore













W

-


#Opp
8
4
7
6
5
2
3
4
5
4
5
4
3
2
1
1


Record
8-4
4-3
5-4
5-4
2-5
4-1
2-3
1-4
4-4
3-4
3-2
2-4
1-2
2-0
0-1
0-1


OOC
3-1
0-0
1-2
2-0
1-0
0-0
1-0
0-2
1-1
1-0
0-2
0-1
1-2
2-0
0-1
0-1



Read each team's results as a column. It's possible I missed a game or three, as I was trying to go through it quickly. The ACC, Big Ten, and SEC teams have more games b/c of their conference games against each other, which is why I included the OOC.

Duke indeed had the most games and highest number of opponents, with UNC and FSU not that far behind. Duke also has the most wins, both overall (8) and OOC (3), though MSU and Houston's percentages are better overall, and FSU and Houston are both 2-0 OOC. Notable (perhaps) that UVA and MSU are both enigmas beyond their conferences with no games OOC against the S16.

[Truth&Justise]

Does anyone have a good explanation for how the term "chalk" came to signify the favorites winning?

[weezie]

Bookies? Blackboards of yore?

Just a guess?

[GoDuke2015]

Does anyone have a good explanation for how the term "chalk" came to signify the favorites winning?


Good explanation here:

https://www.phrases.org.uk/bulletin_board/4/messages/977.html

[Troublemaker]

Does anyone have a good explanation for how the term "chalk" came to signify the favorites winning?


Bookies? Blackboards of yore?

Just a guess?

Yes, weezie is right. Before the computer age, people still gambled but odds were posted on blackboards. If big money continued to come in on one horse or one team, the bookie would have to erase the odds for that horse/team and put up new odds over and over again. Thus that horse/team was the chalkiest part of the blackboard.

[throatybeard]

IIRC 2007 was also very chalky. Maybe not to this extent. There were some early upsets, but the region finals were three 1v2s and one 1v3.

[weezie]

Yes, weezie is right...


Look at me! And I didn't even google it!

And maybe, perhaps there was possibly a great-great-aunt weezie who was a numbers runner way back in the Olde Irish Bronx.
I couldn't possibly confirm that though.

[Skydog]

This year is insanely chalky. Check out the kenpom ratings, shaded teams in sweet 16:

9237

[uh_no]

This year is insanely chalky. Check out the kenpom ratings, shaded teams in sweet 16:

9237

glad the teams finally caught on that KP is the ultimate analysis tool and dictated the results of the games accordingly :D :D

[camion]

glad the teams finally caught on that KP is the ultimate analysis tool and dictated the results of the games accordingly :D :D

That's why they play the games.


Oh wait, if this is correct then we don't really need to play the games do we? :eek:

[Acymetric]

This year is insanely chalky. Check out the kenpom ratings, shaded teams in sweet 16:

9237

Does anyone have a snapshot of teams before the tournament started? I would guess there isn't a ton of change, but of course these results are slightly skewed by the fact that all these teams are on (at least) 2 game winning streaks while everyone else has lost.

[CDu]

Does anyone have a snapshot of teams before the tournament started? I would guess there isn't a ton of change, but of course these results are slightly skewed by the fact that all these teams are on (at least) 2 game winning streaks while everyone else has lost.

Wisconsin and I think Iowa State were rated higher than FSU previously. And there has been some shuffling within the top-12. And Oregon was not in the top-30. But, yeah, it's pretty much the same story otherwise. The top-4 seed lines weren't wildly out of line with KenPom heading in, and it has been a really chalky tournament.

[Skydog]

Wisconsin and I think Iowa State were rated higher than FSU previously. And there has been some shuffling within the top-12. And Oregon was not in the top-30. But, yeah, it's pretty much the same story otherwise. The top-4 seed lines weren't wildly out of line with KenPom heading in, and it has been a really chalky tournament.

CDu pretty covered it. Kenpom pre-tourney snapshot from 3am on 3/21 had same top 16 teams but in different order, including Wisc at 12th. So remaining teams had KP pre-tourney rankings of 1-11, 13-15, 18 and 42. Wonder what the probability of a 87.5% hit rate (14 of 16) was? Be shocked if I saw it again in my lifetime.

[BandAlum83]

Does anyone have a snapshot of teams before the tournament started? I would guess there isn't a ton of change, but of course these results are slightly skewed by the fact that all these teams are on (at least) 2 game winning streaks while everyone else has lost.

Ask and ye shall receive:

Tonight's winners were pre-tourney #1, #2, #9, #10
Tonight's losers were pre-tourney #5, #8, #14 and Oregon, who was outside the snapshot and above #40

9246

[budwom]

I think Perfect Bracket Man finally went down last night...he's been on quite the tour, when his name was publicized he was on his way to Vermont to sip beer, and when he got here he sipped beer and held court...pleasant chap.
But I believe he had both Tennessee and Mishygan last night...i think he has Gonzaga beating Kintucky in the finals...