What're your biggest upset picks (that you'll go on the record with)?

[scottdude8]

I've got UC Irvine over Kansas State as a 13-over-4 (I don't think K State is the same without Dean Wade) in the first round, and I've got two double digit seeds, No. 11 Belmont (assuming they win the First Four, if they don't I might change things) and No. 12 New Mexico State, going to the Sweet 16.

[budwom]

I was expecting that Vermont could have been a splendid choice as a 13th seed, but I fear FSU has too much length and athleticism...still would not be a crazy pick...would have been a great pick vs four seed Kansas, for example.

[wilson]

BILLIKENS over VA Tech, because my wife went to SLU and I've watched weirdly a lot of SLU basketball this season (even though my wife watched virtually zero of this until I pestered her enough to watch the last 8 minutes or so of the A-10 championship game so she could halfheartedly celebrate their tournament berth).

[summerwind03]

I always have UNC lose in their first game.

[Wahoo2000]

Oregon as a 12-seed was actually favored over 5-seed Wisconsin for a few hours after the bracket came out. I think they're back to a 1.5 pt underdog now. Not sure who I'd pick in that matchup, as I think the PAC is terrible, but intriguing that the spread in a 5-12 matchup is almost a pick 'em.

[FerryFor50]

I have a lot of chalk in my bracket.

But for first round upsets:

11 Belmont over 6 Maryland
13 UC Irvine over 4 Kansas St (same reasons as scottdude)
11 St Mary's over 6 Villanova

[robed deity]

Oregon as a 12-seed was actually favored over 5-seed Wisconsin for a few hours after the bracket came out. I think they're back to a 1.5 pt underdog now. Not sure who I'd pick in that matchup, as I think the PAC is terrible, but intriguing that the spread in a 5-12 matchup is almost a pick 'em.

Wow, lots of respect for Dana Altman.

[Acymetric]

Oregon as a 12-seed was actually favored over 5-seed Wisconsin for a few hours after the bracket came out. I think they're back to a 1.5 pt underdog now. Not sure who I'd pick in that matchup, as I think the PAC is terrible, but intriguing that the spread in a 5-12 matchup is almost a pick 'em.

I've got Oregon beating Wisconsin (the Big Ten also wasn't that good this year outside the state of Michigan).

I also have Saint Mary's taking out Villanova and Cincinnati beating Tennessee to make the Sweet 16. The South region should be re-named the Chaos region.

Oh, and Gonzaga going down to Syracuse in the second round.

I like to have unc lose in the second round where possible, but Utah State and Washington weren't giving me much to work with...I had to settle for Auburn knocking them out instead.

[whereinthehellami]

I also have UC Irvine (13) upsetting KSU (4). I like Murray St (12) over Marquette (5).

As far as Whisky (5)/Oregon goes (12), they are pretty different in Kenpom. Whisky is 12th with a #52 adjusted offense and a #3 adjusted defense versus Oregon is ranked 43rd with a #108 adjusted offense and a #18 adjusted defense.

[wsb3]

BILLIKENS over VA Tech, because my wife went to SLU and I've watched weirdly a lot of SLU basketball this season (even though my wife watched virtually zero of this until I pestered her enough to watch the last 8 minutes or so of the A-10 championship game so she could halfheartedly celebrate their tournament berth).

Truthfully I know little about SLU but I don't think this is a bad pick..SLU over VT

[J4Kop99]

Oregon as a 12-seed was actually favored over 5-seed Wisconsin for a few hours after the bracket came out. I think they're back to a 1.5 pt underdog now. Not sure who I'd pick in that matchup, as I think the PAC is terrible, but intriguing that the spread in a 5-12 matchup is almost a pick 'em.

Bill Walton LOVES this Oregon team. I am not sure why but he does and he would not stop repeating it during the Utah game last Thursday.

[dukebluesincebirth]

Utah State. Second round.

[MChambers]

Bill Walton LOVES this Oregon team. I am not sure why but he does and he would not stop repeating it during the Utah game last Thursday.

Because weed is legal in Oregon?

[scottdude8]

I have a lot of chalk in my bracket.

But for first round upsets:

11 Belmont over 6 Maryland
13 UC Irvine over 4 Kansas St (same reasons as scottdude)
11 St Mary's over 6 Villanova

Interestingly enough I have all three of those upsets! I just have a couple 12-5 in there as well (Murray State and New Mexico State).

[scottdude8]

The Oregon bandwagon confuses me, but it's obviously quite large if Vegas in onboard. The Pac-12 sucked all year, and Oregon only made the tournament because Washington didn't come to play in the Pac-12 final. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has its flaws, but they have a legit All-American in Ethan Happ, who is a senior and legit big... without Bol Bol, Oregon's best rebounders are a freshman and a sophomore, the former of which plays a majority of the minutes but is a thin 6-8 205. And while Wisconsin's offense struggles on occasion their defense is always stout, so they'll be in the game no matter what. That makes me think the Badgers are gonna pull it out.

[J4Kop99]

(In response to MChambers) Most likely. That or he once saw Bob Dylan play in Portland in 1978 and it was "the best night of his life and changed the way he saw the world"

--As for upsets, I have seen the Saint Mary's over Nova and Yale over LSU a lot. I saw Nova play twice in person last week and both games were close and both times they made the correct plays down the stretch and won. I like them in a tournament setting although they are not nearly as good as the last few years.

My upset would be a 1st round Maryland loss. Doesn't matter who they play. I have a family member closely associated with that Maryland program and she/he has no trust in Turgeon whatsoever. Went as far as to say a loss would do the program long-term good...

[wsb3]

Utah State. Second round.

From your mouth to God's ears

[wsb3]

Because weed is legal in Oregon?

LOL. Must spread comments around before ....

[Acymetric]

The Oregon bandwagon confuses me, but it's obviously quite large if Vegas in onboard. The Pac-12 sucked all year, and Oregon only made the tournament because Washington didn't come to play in the Pac-12 final. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has its flaws, but they have a legit All-American in Ethan Happ, who is a senior and legit big... without Bol Bol, Oregon's best rebounders are a freshman and a sophomore, the former of which plays a majority of the minutes but is a thin 6-8 205. And while Wisconsin's offense struggles on occasion their defense is always stout, so they'll be in the game no matter what. That makes me think the Badgers are gonna pull it out.


(In response to MChambers) Most likely. That or he once saw Bob Dylan play in Portland in 1978 and it was "the best night of his life and changed the way he saw the world"

--As for upsets, I have seen the Saint Mary's over Nova and Yale over LSU a lot. I saw Nova play twice in person last week and both games were close and both times they made the correct plays down the stretch and won. I like them in a tournament setting although they are not nearly as good as the last few years.

My upset would be a 1st round Maryland loss. Doesn't matter who they play. I have a family member closely associated with that Maryland program and she/he has no trust in Turgeon whatsoever. Went as far as to say a loss would do the program long-term good...

Yale over LSU is the popular upset pick that confuses me. I just don't get it...I guess because the coach is out?

[PSurprise]

Has anyone done an analysis on first round upsets depending on the day? I feel like the Thursday games always have more upsets. It's like the Friday favored-teams see the Thursday upsets and are like, "oh boy, we better play gooder than they did or we're going to get upset too" (or something like that). It would be interesting to look at methinks...

[gocanes0506]

I have 2 double digits making the S16: Oregon and Liberty

[fisheyes]

Yale!
Took them for 2 wins!

[wsb3]

I have 2 double digits making the S16: Oregon and Liberty

I have a Liberty grad in my small group that sure hopes you are right.

[TruBlu]

My biggest upset is that I'm upset because I picked unc to win 2 games. (Losing to Auburn)

[wavedukefan70s]

St Mary's to the elite 8

[FerryFor50]

Oregon as a 12-seed was actually favored over 5-seed Wisconsin for a few hours after the bracket came out. I think they're back to a 1.5 pt underdog now. Not sure who I'd pick in that matchup, as I think the PAC is terrible, but intriguing that the spread in a 5-12 matchup is almost a pick 'em.

With Bol Bol, I'd totally take Oregon.

Without? Oregon is just a less good Wisconsin. They both play at about the same pace (64.1 adjusted tempo for Oregon, 63.6 for Wisconsin) but Wisconsin is better on offense and defense than Oregon.

[Wander]

Yale over LSU is the popular upset pick that confuses me. I just don't get it...I guess because the coach is out?

I also have Yale over LSU. A few reasons:

1. Coaching drama that you mentioned
2. Kenpom has LSU at 18, implying they're overseeded as a 3
3. They've got a bad defense in the analytics, which seems common among big first-round upset victims (like our 2012 and 2014 teams)
4. Yale has two wins over power conference teams. Even through those two teams are mediocre and awful, I think it still mentally counts for something.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yale!
Took them for 2 wins!

So tempted to do that as well. I don't like LSU in the slightest. In the tournament, you need a coach. I don't care who the assistants are, but the whole school - and I assume the team - are still behind Will Wade.

[FerryFor50]

I also have Yale over LSU. A few reasons:

1. Coaching drama that you mentioned
2. Kenpom has LSU at 18, implying they're overseeded as a 3
3. They've got a bad defense in the analytics, which seems common among big first-round upset victims (like our 2012 and 2014 teams)
4. Yale has two wins over power conference teams. Even through those two teams are mediocre and awful, I think it still mentally counts for something.

I considered Yale, but ultimately went with LSU due to talent and the fact that the power conference wins were not impressive.

[Bob Green]

1. My biggest predicted upset is Wofford over Kentucky (2nd Rd). That's a 7 seed over a 2 seed.

2. In Round 1, I'll take the winner of the Belmont/Temple play-in game to beat Maryland. That's an 11 seed over a 6 seed.

3. In the Sweet 16, #4 FSU over #1 Gonzaga. Unfortunately for FSU, they will lose to Michigan in the Elite 8 for the second consecutive season.

[duke2x]

Because weed is legal in Oregon?

It's not a state crime in Washington either. It is a state crime in Arizona and Utah.

Oregon does have excellent chemistry right now but not the talent. I can see Oregon making the Sweet 16 over the Irvine Anteaters.

[wilson]

Truthfully I know little about SLU but I don't think this is a bad pick..SLU over VTUndersized, but with some solid talent in the backcourt. Not a good shooting team. Pretty good defensive efficiency.

[peterjswift]

I have inadvertently also gone with the "popular" upset picks, though I picked them mostly in isolation:

Yale over LSU (seriously, primarily due to coaching drama - I feel like the regular season is enough of a grind to handle disruption with minimal impact...but the tournament has a different schedule, feel, etc - and stability is probably really helpful).

St. Mary's over Nova. Literally just because of the Gonzaga win and my love for Jay Wright and his team (by not picking them, I'm guaranteeing they will win and blow up my bracket - you're welcome Nova fans!).

Ohio St over Iowa St - as much as I hate that team from ohio, I feel like they've gone up against really tough competition all season, more so than the big 12.

11 seed over UMD - obvious reasons.

But, given my performance in previous years, as well as my performance in the degenerates gambling thread, I think it is clear that my picks are right less than 50% of the time...

[Troublemaker]

Remember, your upset foresight can also be rewarded with fake money!

Join the DBR NCAA Tournament Degenerate Gambling Contest here: https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43470-2019-Degenerate-Gambler-NCAA-Tourney-contest!!&p=1143416#post1143416

Keep in mind that with point spreads, you actually even have margin of error with your Yales, St Mary's, Oregons, what-have-you upset picks. They just need to cover for you to win fake money; they don't have to win outright.

[DU82]

Iona.

[Kedsy]

I've been tracking my interpretation of the "Wisconsin Effect" since 2010. What I look for is teams, seeded 7 or better, in the bottom 50 in tempo and bottom 150 in NCSOS. In the past nine tournaments (as long as I've been tracking), there have been 21 such teams and 16 of them (more than 76%) have lost to teams seeded three seeds or more worse than them (e.g., 7 losing to 10; 1 losing to 4, etc.). Of the five such teams that didn't lose, two of them beat double-digit seeds by just one point (so as close to losing as possible without actually doing it).

This year there are four teams that meet the criteria: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Virginia. If the odds hold true (and I know it's just 21 games but it's a pretty powerful percentage), three of those four teams will be upset by teams seeded three or more below them. That would mean, e.g., St. Louis over Virginia Tech; Iowa over Cincinnati; Florida or Nevada over Michigan (or Montana, I suppose); Wisconsin or Kansas State over Virginia (or I guess Ole Miss/Oklahoma would certainly meet the criteria).

Maybe it's real, maybe it isn't, but the results have been astounding me for years.

I also have another upset-spotting system, which using Pomeroy's numbers chooses the 10-, 11-, and 12-seeds rated closest to their first-round opponent, plus any other 10, 11, or 12 that is rated within a point (after adjusting for tempo) of their first-round opponent. Simple, perhaps, but over the past 10 tournaments, double-digit seeds that meed this criteria are 30-16 in the first-round (65.2% winning pct), and fully half (8) of the 16 losses were one-possession games. On the other hand, 10s, 11s, and 12s that did not meet this criteria had a 17-57 record (23.0%). This year, the teams meeting this criteria are Murray State, St. Mary's, Florida, and Iowa. My guess is two or three of those four teams will win. (And conveniently for my own pool-picking purposes, Florida and Iowa are on both of these possible upset lists.)


(Legal disclaimer: I assume absolutely no liability (legal, moral, or financial) if you try either of these systems and lose. I mean, what do you expect from an anonymous internet post?)

[El_Diablo]

11 St. Mary's over 6 Villanova.
11 Belmont over 6 Maryland.
8 Syracuse over 1 Gonzaga.

[BandAlum83]

I've been tracking my interpretation of the "Wisconsin Effect" since 2010. What I look for is teams, seeded 7 or better, in the bottom 50 in tempo and bottom 150 in NCSOS. In the past nine tournaments (as long as I've been tracking), there have been 21 such teams and 16 of them (more than 76%) have lost to teams seeded three seeds or more worse than them (e.g., 7 losing to 10; 1 losing to 4, etc.). Of the five such teams that didn't lose, two of them beat double-digit seeds by just one point (so as close to losing as possible without actually doing it).

This year there are four teams that meet the criteria: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Virginia. If the odds hold true (and I know it's just 21 games but it's a pretty powerful percentage), three of those four teams will be upset by teams seeded three or more below them. That would mean, e.g., St. Louis over Virginia Tech; Iowa over Cincinnati; Florida or Nevada over Michigan (or Montana, I suppose); Wisconsin or Kansas State over Virginia (or I guess Ole Miss/Oklahoma would certainly meet the criteria).

Maybe it's real, maybe it isn't, but the results have been astounding me for years.

I also have another upset-spotting system, which using Pomeroy's numbers chooses the 10-, 11-, and 12-seeds rated closest to their first-round opponent, plus any other 10, 11, or 12 that is rated within a point (after adjusting for tempo) of their first-round opponent. Simple, perhaps, but over the past 10 tournaments, double-digit seeds that meed this criteria are 30-16 in the first-round (65.2% winning pct), and fully half (8) of the 16 losses were one-possession games. On the other hand, 10s, 11s, and 12s that did not meet this criteria had a 17-57 record (23.0%). This year, the teams meeting this criteria are Murray State, St. Mary's, Florida, and Iowa. My guess is two or three of those four teams will win. (And conveniently for my own pool-picking purposes, Florida and Iowa are on both of these possible upset lists.)


(Legal disclaimer: I assume absolutely no liability (legal, moral, or financial) if you try either of these systems and lose. I mean, what do you expect from an anonymous internet post?)

Fascinating! Thanks for going on record with this!

In your first category, I do have 3 of the 4 losing to lower seeded teams (VT, Cincy and Michigan), but only Cincy losing to a seed 3 positions lower. I suppose if the brackets break differently, the lower seeds to beat VT and Michigan could be 3 or more spots lower.

In your second category, I have Iowa and Murray State winning in the first round. Iowa is a two-fer in your system! A winner by both categories. That's practically a Kedsy guarantee!

[fisheyes]

In one of my brackets I picked Syracuse to beat Gonzaga.

Well...that seems unlikely now that they suspended Howard from the team:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26316739/cuse-suspends-howard-eve-ncaa-tourney

[duke4ever19]

I always have UNC lose in their first game.

Me too! I usually have three brackets: No.1 Duke wins the natty bracket, No.2 UNC loses their first or second game bracket, and No.3 the try and be unbiased, which more often than not, looks exactly like bracket No.1.

[JetpackJesus]

Bill Walton LOVES this Oregon team. I am not sure why but he does and he would not stop repeating it during the Utah game last Thursday.
Drugs.

EDIT: Right now I have UB in the Final Four and Belmont over MD. I had Syracuse beating Gonzaga, but I'll probably change that due to the suspension. I'm still deciding when I want to have UNC and UK lose. I'm mulling over some other potential upsets that I haven't settled on just yet.

[Reddevil]

I picked 'Cuse to beat the Zags because playing the Orange in basketball is sort of like playing GA Tech in football. The preparation is just different as is the reality.

I picked Liberty to make the sweet 16.

[House G]

I've been tracking my interpretation of the "Wisconsin Effect" since 2010. What I look for is teams, seeded 7 or better, in the bottom 50 in tempo and bottom 150 in NCSOS. In the past nine tournaments (as long as I've been tracking), there have been 21 such teams and 16 of them (more than 76%) have lost to teams seeded three seeds or more worse than them (e.g., 7 losing to 10; 1 losing to 4, etc.). Of the five such teams that didn't lose, two of them beat double-digit seeds by just one point (so as close to losing as possible without actually doing it).

This year there are four teams that meet the criteria: Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Michigan, and Virginia. If the odds hold true (and I know it's just 21 games but it's a pretty powerful percentage), three of those four teams will be upset by teams seeded three or more below them. That would mean, e.g., St. Louis over Virginia Tech; Iowa over Cincinnati; Florida or Nevada over Michigan (or Montana, I suppose); Wisconsin or Kansas State over Virginia (or I guess Ole Miss/Oklahoma would certainly meet the criteria).

Maybe it's real, maybe it isn't, but the results have been astounding me for years.

I also have another upset-spotting system, which using Pomeroy's numbers chooses the 10-, 11-, and 12-seeds rated closest to their first-round opponent, plus any other 10, 11, or 12 that is rated within a point (after adjusting for tempo) of their first-round opponent. Simple, perhaps, but over the past 10 tournaments, double-digit seeds that meed this criteria are 30-16 in the first-round (65.2% winning pct), and fully half (8) of the 16 losses were one-possession games. On the other hand, 10s, 11s, and 12s that did not meet this criteria had a 17-57 record (23.0%). This year, the teams meeting this criteria are Murray State, St. Mary's, Florida, and Iowa. My guess is two or three of those four teams will win. (And conveniently for my own pool-picking purposes, Florida and Iowa are on both of these possible upset lists.)


(Legal disclaimer: I assume absolutely no liability (legal, moral, or financial) if you try either of these systems and lose. I mean, what do you expect from an anonymous internet post?)

Thank you, Kedsy!

[uh_no]

I also have Yale over LSU. A few reasons:

1. Coaching drama that you mentioned
2. Kenpom has LSU at 18, implying they're overseeded as a 3
3. They've got a bad defense in the analytics, which seems common among big first-round upset victims (like our 2012 and 2014 teams)
4. Yale has two wins over power conference teams. Even through those two teams are mediocre and awful, I think it still mentally counts for something.

apparently this was not as much of a hero-call as I thought it would be. I picked yale as well....and TBF, they did make a run of it, so it doesn't seem as crazy as it might otherwise have been.

[sagegrouse]

I picked UC Irvine to go to the Sweet Sixteen, but -- based on the performance of my upset pick New Mexico State -- I expect them to dropkick away the victory in the final seconds.

[richardjackson199]

Anybody wanna call a few upsets for Saturday Sunday?

Arguably the top 15 teams in the tourney are all still alive. it's not inconceivable (though unlikely) to have almost all chalk in sweet 16 with almost all 1-4 seeds still alive. But that shouldn't happen. Who goes down this weekend? Don't call Auburn over Kansas as Auburn is the favorite. Though I think Kansas will win.

I'm guessing experts like Buffalo and Wofford.

I just hope it's not UCF who could give us tough matchup problems around the basket.

And I'm actually now cheering for MSU to win. I really don't want to play LSU (and would rather play MSU). I don't think Minnesota can beat LSU.

Apologies for all the blasphemy. :eek:

[Wander]

Anybody wanna call a few upsets for Saturday Sunday?

Arguably the top 15 teams in the tourney are all still alive. it's not inconceivable (though unlikely) to have almost all chalk in sweet 16 with almost all 1-4 seeds still alive. But that shouldn't happen. Who goes down this weekend? Don't call Auburn over Kansas as Auburn is the favorite. Though I think Kansas will win.

I'm guessing experts like Buffalo and Wofford.

I just hope it's not UCF who could give us tough matchup problems around the basket.

And I'm actually now cheering for MSU to win. I really don't want to play LSU (and would rather play MSU). I don't think Minnesota can beat LSU.

Apologies for all the blasphemy. :eek:

I think Murray State is the obvious one. I like them to beat FSU.

I also have Washington in the Elite 8 in my bracket. Yes, the Pac-12 sucks, but people always project their opinions about conferences way too much on individual teams. I think UW is legit and has some talent.

[richardjackson199]

I'll call all chalk (for that to happen would be a major upset), including Kansas. And I'll take the Anteaters in the 12-13 matchup.

But rooting for upsets of course, except for 1 game.

[sagegrouse]

And I'm actually now cheering for MSU to win. I really don't want to play LSU (and would rather play MSU). I don't think Minnesota can beat LSU.

Apologies for all the blasphemy. :eek:

Why wouldn't you want to play LSU in the regional finals?

[Acymetric]

Nova over Purdue
Baylor over Gonzaga
Auburn over Kansas (I know you said that doesn't count, just going on record that I predict an Auburn win)
I would have listed Oregon here as I have them making the Sweet 16 but of course they are now the higher seed matched up against UC Irvine

Upset Watch (but I'm not predicting am upset):

Liberty over VT
Buffalo over Texas Tech

Murray St. over FSU is probably popular now but I expect FSU to handle them.

[robed deity]

Nova over Purdue
Baylor over Gonzaga
Auburn over Kansas (I know you said that doesn't count, just going on record that I predict an Auburn win)
I would have listed Oregon here as I have them making the Sweet 16 but of course they are now the higher seed matched up against UC Irvine

Upset Watch (but I'm not predicting am upset):

Liberty over VT
Buffalo over Texas Tech

Murray St. over FSU is probably popular now but I expect FSU to handle them.

Baylor over Gonzaga seems questionable.

[richardjackson199]

Why wouldn't you want to play LSU in the regional finals?

Waters really wanted to come to Duke, but I think we backed off on him. Problematic parent maybe? But Waters is very good, clutch, experienced guard who has made a lot of game winners. I could see him having a psychological motivation to go off against Duke even more than usual.

LSU also tough offensive rebounding team.

I probably have some PTSD from that LSU loss several years ago in the tourney.

Duke by contrast, has done quite well vs Izzo in the tourney. I think we match up relatively well vs MSU. Winston is awesome, but I think Tre can shut him down. LSU has alot more weapons. Both are good teams. I just have a bad feeling about playing that LSU team.

I also don't like playing teams in the tourney whose players have been paid. It hasn't gone well for us. Like Kansas last year. Or Louisville in 2013. Or probably Oregon in 2016.

I'll take MSU. But happy to be wrong as long as we win.

[brevity]

Baylor over Gonzaga seems questionable.

Baylor's uniforms seem questionable, and yet here we are.

[Acymetric]

Baylor over Gonzaga seems questionable.

What fun is an upset thread if nobody goes out on a limb?


Baylor's uniforms seem questionable, and yet here we are.

They are some pretty bad uniforms. I think it's an intentional strategy to mess with the opposing teams focus.

[devildeac]

"I'll gladly donate all of Bob Green's winnings as reparations for all of richardjackson199's staggering losses," he said in a very Husky voice.

[Bob Green]

1. My biggest predicted upset is Wofford over Kentucky (2nd Rd). That's a 7 seed over a 2 seed.



Halftime: Kentucky 28, Wofford 26

Can Wofford hang tough to the end? Kentucky ended the 1st half on a 10-2 run so Wofford must respond when play resumes.

[richardjackson199]

"I'll gladly donate all of Bob Green's winnings as reparations for all of richardjackson199's staggering losses," he said in a very Husky voice.

Sounds pot committed. ;)

But Bill Walton would tell you that's ok because it's legal in Washington State.

I hope they're on a collective high after lighting it up and smoking the cheats. :D

[richardjackson199]

Nova over Purdue
Baylor over Gonzaga
Auburn over Kansas (I know you said that doesn't count, just going on record that I predict an Auburn win)
I would have listed Oregon here as I have them making the Sweet 16 but of course they are now the higher seed matched up against UC Irvine

Upset Watch (but I'm not predicting am upset):

Liberty over VT
Buffalo over Texas Tech

Murray St. over FSU is probably popular now but I expect FSU to handle them.

Fun picks. You def get to call Auburn since you're calling real upsets. It would just be weak if Auburn was the only one somebody called when they are favored.

Go Terriers!

[richardjackson199]

I have never seen so much chalk in an NCAAT with the top 15 teams.

It's like March Sanity.

Hopefully that trend continues tomorrow after 5 pm.

Should make for one of the most exciting second weekends of the tourney ever.

No need for Cinderellas. Anteaters are enough.

[Rich]

I have never seen so much chalk in an NCAAT with the top 15 teams.

It's like March Sanity.

Hopefully that trend continues tomorrow after 5 pm.

Should make for one of the most exciting second weekends of the tourney ever.

No need for Cinderellas. Anteaters are enough.

From your mouth...

I don’t have empirical evidence but it seems historically there are chalk days and upset days. Let’s hope after today’s extreme chalkiness we don’t have extreme upset-iness tomorrow, at least with respect to one specific late afternoon game.

[duke2x]

Sunday seems like another chalk day. Just to advance the discussion, I'll say IA over TN. It's only 10 points on Pomeroy, but I know it could as bad as FSU-Murray St in TN's favor.

Go Huskies.

[BigZ]

Yeah if Liberty or UC Irvine don’t win there will be no Cinderella this year. I don’t think Ohio St or Oregon count as Cinderella

[Troublemaker]

Yeah if Liberty or UC Irvine don’t win there will be no Cinderella this year. I don’t think Ohio St or Oregon count as Cinderella

Yeah, I mean, Oregon was preseason top-15.

I would also probably count Buffalo as Cinderella. Even though everyone now knows Buffalo is good -- they're a 6 seed, afterall -- they're still a small program, they would still have to upset TTU to make the Sweet 16, and nobody knew they were good (at least this good) in the preseason.

Rooting hard for Liberty to take out VaTech. Revenge is overrated. I'd prefer an easier (though no guaranteed win) Sweet 16 game before having to run the 3-game gauntlet of 1. MSU (#4 kenpom), 2. Gonzaga (#2 kenpom), 3. UVA (#1 kenpom).

Of course, Duke has to take care of business against UCF before worrying about any of that.

[kmspeaks]

I don't have any numbers to back this up, but when filling out my bracket this year it felt like the group at the top with the potential to win it all was a little bit bigger than normal but the separation between them and the rest of the pack was also a little larger than normal. I picked some 5/12 and 6/11 "upsets" but the top 16 just seem like they're too good this year for a double digit seed to break through to the EE or FF.

[richardjackson199]

I don't have any numbers to back this up, but when filling out my bracket this year it felt like the group at the top with the potential to win it all was a little bit bigger than normal but the separation between them and the rest of the pack was also a little larger than normal. I picked some 5/12 and 6/11 "upsets" but the top 16 just seem like they're too good this year for a double digit seed to break through to the EE or FF.

And there is an argument that Auburn deserved a 4 seed based on what they did to Tenn and winning SEC tourney. Counting them as one of top 16 teams (or not) is resulting in a weird tourney so far. Many games have been competitive and fun. But also lots of blowouts, Waters shot was closest thing to only buzzer beater, and highly unusual amount of chalk... so far.

[Acymetric]

And there is an argument that Auburn deserved a 4 seed based on what they did to Tenn and winning SEC tourney. Counting them as one of top 16 teams (or not) is resulting in a weird tourney so far. Many games have been competitive and fun. But also lots of blowouts, Waters shot was closest thing to only buzzer beater, and highly unusual amount of chalk... so far.

This does feel like one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent memory...I wonder if an actual analysis would bear that out.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This does feel like one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent memory...I wonder if an actual analysis would bear that out.

Also feels like fewer close games each day. Let's not break that flow today please.

[sagegrouse]

This does feel like one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent memory...I wonder if an actual analysis would bear that out.

As a fan of the #1 team, "chalk" is fine with me.

[richardjackson199]

This does feel like one of the chalkiest tournaments in recent memory...I wonder if an actual analysis would bear that out.

The first 2 days of the tourney, there were technically plenty of upsets, as usual. I won't even count 9 over 8 upsets which we all know aren't really upsets. On average, 4 or 5 of the teams seeded 5 through 7 lose in the first round. This year it was 7.

But the 1-4 seeds were not losing, and the top 15 teams in the country all won. Even the Kansas State, 4 seed that lost to UC-Irvine was not a surprise to any expert. They all called that one with K State missing a key injured player and UC-Irvine being a very good, hot team for a 13 seed.

Then by the round of 32, the relative lack of top 4 upsets coupled with the volume of 10/11/12 seeds still alive suggested that 2/3/4 seeds would, collectively, have an easier path to the second weekend.

But this many 1-4 seeds still alive is unusual. If it continues today it will be unprecedented.

Go Duke and Go Huskies!

[Wander]

As a fan of the #1 team, "chalk" is fine with me.

I think chalkiness hurts our chances, not helps. We're now guaranteed to play a 2 or 3 seed in the Elite 8 if we get there, and if Buffalo wins today, we'll be guaranteed to play a top 4 seed in the semi-final if we get there. I'm not scared of anyone as long as Zion is healthy, but I'd rather get to the Final Four and see Belmont or Nevada or whatever as our opponent.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think chalkiness hurts our chances, not helps. We're now guaranteed to play a 2 or 3 seed in the Elite 8 if we get there, and if Buffalo wins today, we'll be guaranteed to play a top 4 seed in the semi-final if we get there. I'm not scared of anyone as long as Zion is healthy, but I'd rather get to the Final Four and see Belmont or Nevada or whatever as our opponent.

I assume the poster intended the the longer chalk holds, the longer we survive as the overall number one.

[Acymetric]

The first 2 days of the tourney, there were technically plenty of upsets, as usual. I won't even count 9 over 8 upsets which we all know aren't really upsets. On average, 4 or 5 of the teams seeded 5 through 7 lose in the first round. This year it was 7.

But the 1-4 seeds were not losing, and the top 15 teams in the country all won. Even the Kansas State, 4 seed that lost to UC-Irvine was not a surprise to any expert. They all called that one with K State missing a key injured player and UC-Irvine being a very good, hot team for a 13 seed.

Then by the round of 32, the relative lack of top 4 upsets coupled with the volume of 10/11/12 seeds still alive suggested that 2/3/4 seeds would, collectively, have an easier path to the second weekend.

But this many 1-4 seeds still alive is unusual. If it continues today it will be unprecedented.

Go Duke and Go Huskies!

Have we reached unprecedented yet or does Houston need to pull it out?