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DukeTrinity11
03-07-2019, 01:41 PM
UVA seems like a lock but the NCAA Committee might have a real mess on their hands here if dominoes fell a certain way.

Is Gonzaga still a lock to get a 1 Seed if the following happened?

1. Loser of Duke/UNC Saturday wins in the rematch in the ACC Semis
2. UK/Tennessee wins their last regular season game and wins the SECT

Given that UVA is a lock for a 1 Seed, how do you justify putting the Zags above the other 2 ACC or SEC teams in this case?

Would a 3 loss Tennessee team that won the regular season SEC crown, beat the Zags H2H and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

Would a Carolina team that swept Duke and beat Gonzaga H2H not get a 1 Seed?

Would a UK team that beat Carolina H2H, beat Tennessee x2, has the most Quad 1 Wins and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

Would a Duke team that swept UVA, beat Big 12 Champ Texas Tech on a neural court, crushed top 5 UK and beat UNC once with the Zion and missing key players argument not get a 1 Seed?

The fanbases of one of the top 6 teams is going to be really unhappy come Selection Sunday. Hopefully it isn't us...

uh_no
03-07-2019, 01:47 PM
UVA seems like a lock but the NCAA Committee might have a real mess on their hands here if dominoes fell a certain way.

Is Gonzaga still a lock to get a 1 Seed if the following happened?

1. Loser of Duke/UNC Saturday wins in the rematch in the ACC Semis
2. UK/Tennessee wins their last regular season game and wins the SECT

Given that UVA is a lock for a 1 Seed, how do you justify putting the Zags above the other 2 ACC or SEC teams in this case?

Would a 3 loss Tennessee team that won the regular season SEC crown, beat the Zags H2H and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

Would a Carolina team that swept Duke and beat Gonzaga H2H not get a 1 Seed?

Would a UK team that beat Carolina H2H, beat Tennessee x2, has the most Quad 1 Wins and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

Would a Duke team that swept UVA, beat Big 12 Champ Texas Tech on a neural court, crushed top 5 UK and beat UNC once with the Zion and missing key players argument not get a 1 Seed?

The fanbases of one of the top 6 teams is going to be really unhappy come Selection Sunday. Hopefully it isn't us...

I put big money on the ACC not getting 3 #1 seeds. UNC is a stretch already at #7 in NET. If they swept duke, they'd have an argument. If they sweep duke, though, then Duke has no chance of getting a 1.

It's either US or UNC.

jv001
03-07-2019, 01:52 PM
I put big money on the ACC not getting 3 #1 seeds. UNC is a stretch already at #7 in NET. If they swept duke, they'd have an argument. If they sweep duke, though, then Duke has no chance of getting a 1.

It's either US or UNC.

Maybe we get a #1 seed if we lose to the cheats Saturday without Zion but beat the crap out of them in the ACCT with Z. Plus win the Tournament. GoDuke!

Acymetric
03-07-2019, 01:57 PM
UVA seems like a lock but the NCAA Committee might have a real mess on their hands here if dominoes fell a certain way.

Is Gonzaga still a lock to get a 1 Seed if the following happened?

1. Loser of Duke/UNC Saturday wins in the rematch in the ACC Semis
2. UK/Tennessee wins their last regular season game and wins the SECT

Given that UVA is a lock for a 1 Seed, how do you justify putting the Zags above the other 2 ACC or SEC teams in this case?

Would a 3 loss Tennessee team that won the regular season SEC crown, beat the Zags H2H and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

Would a Carolina team that swept Duke and beat Gonzaga H2H not get a 1 Seed?

Would a UK team that beat Carolina H2H, beat Tennessee x2, has the most Quad 1 Wins and won the SECT not get a 1 Seed?

Would a Duke team that swept UVA, beat Big 12 Champ Texas Tech on a neural court, crushed top 5 UK and beat UNC once with the Zion and missing key players argument not get a 1 Seed?

The fanbases of one of the top 6 teams is going to be really unhappy come Selection Sunday. Hopefully it isn't us...

This cluster[redacted] at the top is why I suggested that we may not be able to secure a #1 if we don't win out the regular season (which now just means beat Carolina) or win the ACC Tourney. Houston losing to UCF helps a lot, I think they could have been seriously in play for a #1 seed had they won out and finished as conference champion with only 1 loss (I know some people will think this is crazy, but their NET ranking was plenty high).

Missing from your analysis: I think Michigan or Michigan St. could lay claim to a #1 seed if they win out (including the conference tournament).

Essentially, there are 7 teams that all have a case for a #1 seed assuming no big upsets in the next 2 weeks (would have been 8 with Houston). My expectation for #1 seeds:

Gonzaga (assuming they win out)
SEC Champ (assuming it is Kentucky or Tennessee)
ACC Champ (Assuming UVA, Duke, or unc)
*Wildcard*

The wild card #1 seed will see competition from:
Big 10 winner (assuming Michigan or Michigan St)
2 of Duke/unc/UVA (whichever ones don't win the tournament)
UK/Tennessee (whichever doesn't win the tournament)

If someone other than one of the 5 #1 seed contenders wins the SEC or ACC tournament, replace that slot with the Big 10 winner (same if Gonzaga falters). If the Big 10 winner is also not in contention, the slot becomes another wildcard. If both the SEC and ACC are won by non-contenders (for the 1 seed) and the Big 10 sees a non-contender win...draw names out of a hat.

simplyluvin
03-07-2019, 01:58 PM
I put big money on the ACC not getting 3 #1 seeds. UNC is a stretch already at #7 in NET. If they swept duke, they'd have an argument. If they sweep duke, though, then Duke has no chance of getting a 1.

It's either US or UNC.

At this stage, I can only see two scenarios - NET rankings notwithstanding - in which we get a #1 seed.
1. Win or lose this Saturday, we win the ACCT outright (likely beating UNC and UVA).
2. Beat UNC this Saturday and in the ACCT but not win the conference title.

The worst case scenario seed-wise seems to be the most likely, that we are the highest rated #2. I believe that may pit us in the same region as the worst #1, which may be end up being...UNC.

UVA & Gonzaga are locks for 1 seeds. If UK or Tennessee win the SEC conference tournament, then they would be a lock too. If neither win the SEC, I would say Tennessee still gets a #1. Even if Michigan or MSU win the Big10, I can't see either being a #1.

duke2x
03-07-2019, 02:02 PM
The worst case scenario seed-wise seems to be the most likely, that we are the highest rated #2. I believe that may pit us in the same region as the worst #1, which may be end up being...UNC.

UVA & Gonzaga are locks for 1 seeds. If UK or Tennessee win the SEC conference tournament, then they would be a lock too. If neither win the SEC, I would say Tennessee still gets a #1. Even if Michigan or MSU win the Big10, I can't see either being a #1.

They can't put us in UNC's bracket by rule. The highest ACC #2 gets matched up with KY/TN or Gonzaga. I would not put it past the NCAA to make Gonzaga the #4 overall seed because of their schedule. I'm not wild about playing in Anaheim because it's Tampa West for Duke.

Acymetric
03-07-2019, 02:07 PM
Meant to include this in my first post. I do think the top 8 seeds are pretty clear (not in order)

These six are almost certain to get at least a #2 seed no matter what happens:
Gonzaga
Duke
Virginia
unc
Tennessee
Kentucky

Then pick 2 of
Houston (I can't imagine them falling all the way to 3, so its really probably pick 1 of the remaining teams below)
Michigan
Michigan St.
LSU (probably needs to win SEC, which would also make them a lock for a 2 at that point and actually could put them in 1 seed contention)
Purdue (Would definitely need to win the Big 10 and would probably also become a lock after doing so as long as LSU doesn't win the SEC)

In the somewhat unlikely but plausible event that LSU and Purdue win their conferences and Houston does the same, I have no idea who gets bumped down to a 3, but probably Purdue.

DukeTrinity11
03-07-2019, 02:13 PM
I put big money on the ACC not getting 3 #1 seeds. UNC is a stretch already at #7 in NET. If they swept duke, they'd have an argument. If they sweep duke, though, then Duke has no chance of getting a 1.

It's either US or UNC.

NET rankings asid, Carolina's resume is incredibly strong with 8 Quad 1 wins, an undefeated road record in the ACC and the potential to add 2 more Quad 1 wins if they beat Duke another time and Syracuse/Louisville as well.

Plus lets say Duke wins this Saturday but then UNC beats Duke in the rematch in the ACC Semis and UVA in the ACC Final, that blows up your assertion and the NCAA committee has to give UNC a 1 Seed.

blUDAYvil
03-07-2019, 02:16 PM
They can't put us in UNC's bracket by rule. The highest ACC #2 gets matched up with KY/TN or Gonzaga. I would not put it past the NCAA to make Gonzaga the #4 overall seed because of their schedule. I'm not wild about playing in Anaheim because it's Tampa West for Duke.

There's a reasonable and terrifying possibility that Duke and Kentucky will both be placed in the South regional in Louisville, Kentucky. Could happen with either as the #1 or #2 seed.

uh_no
03-07-2019, 02:20 PM
the top #2 seed goes in their preferred location, assuming other bracketing rules are not broken. For us, this would means washington, but UVA will almost assuredly be there. next up would be MO, but UNC could very well be there...unless TN is there instead Then we'd be in MN, with one of the michigans.

So anyway, if we're a 2, we're probably MO or MN, depending on who the fourth 1 seed is and the overall seeding.

Natty_B
03-07-2019, 02:28 PM
I'm also interested in where Duke plays. I know some disagree but I really don't see a benefit to being in Columbia if UNC is also there. I've been to those Tourney games before and it's always like 99% UNC fans.

duke2x
03-07-2019, 02:53 PM
the top #2 seed goes in their preferred location, assuming other bracketing rules are not broken. For us, this would means washington, but UVA will almost assuredly be there. next up would be MO, but UNC could very well be there...unless TN is there instead Then we'd be in MN, with one of the michigans.

So anyway, if we're a 2, we're probably MO or MN, depending on who the fourth 1 seed is and the overall seeding.

Bracketing did follow the S-curve last year. Duke and UNC were #5 and #6 and were shipped to the MW and W respectively to avoid #2 Villanova in the East. That was illegal if the rules were followed to the letter. A UNC-Duke-UVA rematch is the only rule they would observe pretty closely. Duke-KY in Louisville is fair game.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-03-13/heres-every-march-madness-team-ranked-and-1-thing-know-about

duke2x
03-07-2019, 02:58 PM
I'm also interested in where Duke plays. I know some disagree but I really don't see a benefit to being in Columbia if UNC is also there. I've been to those Tourney games before and it's always like 99% UNC fans.

I think UVA is a lock for Columbia even if they lose the next 2. I would ignore everything you see putting them in Columbus, which is much further away for them. One of Duke/UNC will be in Jacksonville, but I am confident Coach K would prefer Hartford in that case. (He won't get it.) Both are Th/Sat. Columbia is F/Sun, his preferred combination after the ACC Tournament.

uh_no
03-07-2019, 03:06 PM
Bracketing did follow the S-curve last year. Duke and UNC were #5 and #6 and were shipped to the MW and W respectively to avoid #2 Villanova in the East. That was illegal if the rules were followed to the letter. A UNC-Duke-UVA rematch is the only rule they would observe pretty closely. Duke-KY in Louisville is fair game.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-03-13/heres-every-march-madness-team-ranked-and-1-thing-know-about

just because it happened to work that way in one scenario does not mean anything. AFAIK, the only hard rule is the top 1 and 2 seeds cannot be in the same region, and they must be from different conferences. My provokation was the assertion that as the top 2 seed, duke would go with the fourth overall seed, which is simply not required to be the case.

There are also rules about how far the sum of the overall top 4 seeds in a region may differ from each other. Considerations such as this may have prevented duke or UNC from ending up in the east as well, and protecting nova may have also been a consideration, but there's no requirement it work that way.

Acymetric
03-07-2019, 03:15 PM
just because it happened to work that way in one scenario does not mean anything. AFAIK, the only hard rule is the top 1 and 2 seeds cannot be in the same region, and they must be from different conferences. My provokation was the assertion that as the top 2 seed, duke would go with the fourth overall seed, which is simply not required to be the case.

There are also rules about how far the sum of the overall top 4 seeds in a region may differ from each other. Considerations such as this may have prevented duke or UNC from ending up in the east as well, and protecting nova may have also been a consideration, but there's no requirement it work that way.

Wait, are you saying the top 1 seed and top 2 seed can't be from the same conference? Or am I mis-reading?

uh_no
03-07-2019, 03:15 PM
Wait, are you saying the top 1 seed and top 2 seed can't be from the same conference? Or am I mis-reading?

no no :D

the top 1 and 5 overall seed can't be in the same region

And 1 and 2 seeds in each region must be from different conferences

duke2x
03-07-2019, 03:34 PM
AFAIK, the only hard rule is the top 1 and 2 seeds cannot be in the same region, and they must be from different conferences. My provokation was the assertion that as the top 2 seed, duke would go with the fourth overall seed, which is simply not required to be the case.

There are also rules about how far the sum of the overall top 4 seeds in a region may differ from each other. Considerations such as this may have prevented duke or UNC from ending up in the east as well, and protecting nova may have also been a consideration, but there's no requirement it work that way.

AFAIK is correct after we were placed with Louisville in 2013. Balancing the bracket is easy if each Sweet 16 pair = 17, but even the balance rule is treated as optional because they don't fill out the bracket until 1-2 hours before. There will be some discussion on how to handle the top 6. I don't think they really want a Duke-UK rematch before the Final 4. Both teams are probably the favorites to reach the title game if healthy.

uh_no
03-07-2019, 03:43 PM
AFAIK is correct after we were placed with Louisville in 2013. Balancing the bracket is easy if each Sweet 16 pair = 17, but even the balance rule is treated as optional because they don't fill out the bracket until 1-2 hours before. There will be some discussion on how to handle the top 6. I don't think they really want a Duke-UK rematch before the Final 4. Both teams are probably the favorites to reach the title game if healthy.

The same team that just got blown out by tennessee last week is the favorite to reach the title game? That's not the only recent head scratcher, they've had several games that are far closer than they ought to have been

4 points to #43 ole miss
4 points to #53 arkansas
the loss to LSU
4 points to #22 Miss st

They're good, but they're not title-game-prohibitive-favorite good.

Acymetric
03-07-2019, 03:44 PM
no no :D

the top 1 and 5 overall seed can't be in the same region

And 1 and 2 seeds in each region must be from different conferences

Ok, that's what I thought...just making sure. We need to get 3 #1 seeds and at least 2 #2 seeds some year to put that rule to the test!


The same team that just got blown out by tennessee last week is the favorite to reach the title game? That's not the only recent head scratcher, they've had several games that are far closer than they ought to have been

4 points to #43 ole miss
4 points to #53 arkansas
the loss to LSU
4 points to #22 Miss st

They're good, but they're not title-game-prohibitive-favorite good.

Currently Duke and Gonzaga are heavy favorites...UK is a distant 4th.

If you go by KenPom it looks like UVA and Gonzaga would be heavy favorites with Duke close behind and UK waaaaay back.

Troublemaker
03-07-2019, 04:07 PM
I have a feeling some of the people commenting haven't been following Bracket Matrix daily since early January like me :-) Your feel for this is off.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Houston is probably a 3 seed as of right now, and they're probably closer to a 4 than a 2.

When Zion comes back, Duke has more room for error for a 1 seed than what some of you guys are saying. Remember, we swept the overall #1 seed UVA, and we blew out one of the other contenders for a #1 seed, Kentucky. Those wins will count for a lot, and our losses (besides Gonzaga) have come at less than full strength. Just on a practical level, think of the poor #1 seed that has to deal with Duke as their 2 seed when Zion comes back; the committee will be loathe to put anyone in that position.

As of today, Duke is probably the overall #2 (i.e. second-highest 1-seed) behind UVA, and if the committee knew with 100% certainty that Zion is back, I wouldn't be surprised if they still put us ahead of the team we swept if Selection Sunday were today.

Acymetric
03-07-2019, 04:20 PM
I have a feeling some of the people commenting haven't been following Bracket Matrix daily since early January like me :-) Your feel for this is off.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Houston is probably a 3 seed as of right now, and they're probably closer to a 4 than a 2.

When Zion comes back, Duke has more room for error for a 1 seed than what some of you guys are saying. Remember, we swept the overall #1 seed UVA, and we blew out one of the other contenders for a #1 seed, Kentucky. Those wins will count for a lot, and our losses (besides Gonzaga) have come at less than full strength. Just on a practical level, think of the poor #1 seed that has to deal with Duke as their 2 seed when Zion comes back; the committee will be loathe to put anyone in that position.

As of today, Duke is probably the overall #2 (i.e. second-highest 1-seed) behind UVA, and if the committee knew with 100% certainty that Zion is back, I wouldn't be surprised if they still put us ahead of the team we swept if Selection Sunday were today.

Generally the brackets Bracket Matrix use are "if selection was today" where most of us are projecting based on various scenarios, which explains most of the difference I think. Virtually no chance Houston is a 4 if they win out, and I maintain they have a decent shot at a 2 depending on how other things fall. That said, accepting the Houston discrepancy my predictions line up pretty well with what Bracket Matrix is showing so I feel pretty good about them.

gofurman
03-07-2019, 04:55 PM
no no :D

the top 1 and 5 overall seed can't be in the same region

And 1 and 2 seeds in each region must be from different conferences

*So itís for sure the 1 and 2 seeds in each region have to be from different conf?

uh_no
03-07-2019, 05:22 PM
*So it’s for sure the 1 and 2 seeds in each region have to be from different conf?



Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness

(warning: autoplay alert)


To answer the other questions:


2. The committee will then place the No. 2 seeds in each region in true seed list order. The committee may relax the principle of keeping teams as close to their area of natural interest for seeding teams on the No. 2 line to avoid, for example, the overall No. 5 seed being sent to the same region as the overall No. 1 seed. The committee will not compromise the principle of keeping teams from the same conference in separate regions.

By "in true seed list order", they mean you go to the region you want first. The second sentence makes that clear, and all but makes it explicit that they'll try to protect the overall #1. Last year that principle may have been extended to protect the overall #2, but geography is the primary factor for the 2 seed.

Further further:

5. After the top four seed lines have been assigned, the committee will review the relative strengths of the regions by adding the “true seed” numbers in each region to determine if any severe numerical imbalance exists. Generally, no more than five points should separate the lowest and highest total.

This will almost always involve twiddling the 3 and 4 seeds.

Natty_B
03-10-2019, 08:32 AM
Jerry Palm has Duke as a 2 and Kentucky as the 1 and Duke as the 7th overall team. In a related note Jerry Palm isnt good at his job.

dukelifer
03-10-2019, 09:36 AM
Jerry Palm has Duke as a 2 and Kentucky as the 1 and Duke as the 7th overall team. In a related note Jerry Palm isnt good at his job.

I think Duke will be matched up with KY or Gonzaga in the region- most likely KY.

uh_no
03-10-2019, 09:38 AM
I think Duke will be matched up with KY or Gonzaga in the region- most likely KY.

you guys all realize there are some important games next week which could cause huge swings in the bracket, right? And if Zion is back and we play well, the committee can pretty much ignore all our games without zion, right?

brevity
03-10-2019, 09:46 AM
you guys all realize there are some important games next week which could cause huge swings in the bracket, right?

They do, and Iím sure theyíll share their instant, soon-to-be-wrong opinion then, too.

dukelifer
03-10-2019, 09:58 AM
you guys all realize there are some important games next week which could cause huge swings in the bracket, right? And if Zion is back and we play well, the committee can pretty much ignore all our games without zion, right?

I have watched enough guys come back to play after injury to know that often there is always period of adjustment and also a risk of another compensating injury. Duke will not be playing cupcakes for Zion to ease back into shape. At this point Duke is a 2. If Zion is Zion - then Duke is much better and the committee may give them the benefit of the doubt. A lot will be clearer on Thursday and more importantly Friday.

Dub
03-10-2019, 10:46 AM
I have watched enough guys come back to play after injury to know that often there is always period of adjustment and also a risk of another compensating injury. Duke will not be playing cupcakes for Zion to ease back into shape. At this point Duke is a 2. If Zion is Zion - then Duke is much better and the committee may give them the benefit of the doubt. A lot will be clearer on Thursday and more importantly Friday.

Hate to agree but this is where I am. Even with a healthy Zion, thereís virtually no way heíll be in ďgameĒ shape for potentially 3 games in 3 days.

He hasnít gone through contact yet in practice and lord knows how much contact heíll absorb in the intense ACC tourney games. I think weíre a 2 and my only hope is we enter the tourney as healthy as possible and with a chip on our shoulder. Should we run thru the ACC tourney, I will happily eat crow.

DavidBenAkiva
03-10-2019, 11:02 AM
This is me thinking "out loud" on this forum about seeding for the NCAA Tournament.

It seems fairly obvious that, if Duke gets to the ACC Tournament Finals, they will be a 1 seed. Winning the tournament will have implications for which region.

Gonzaga is a lock for the West Region #1 Seed
Virginia is a lock for a #1 Seed, most likely the East but could move to the South if Duke wins the ACC Tournament.

After that, there are 4 teams with realistic hopes of a #1 seed. None of those 4 teams was the outright winner of their conference regular season. UNC has a "share" in so much as they have the same record as Virginia, but with a head-to-head loss AND having played a significantly softer conference schedule. But as it stands today, UNC is probably a #1 Seed and getting to the ACC Semis or farther locks them into a #1 Seed.

So that leaves Duke, Kentucky, and Tennessee as the other suitors for a #1 Seed with Michigan State on the outside looking in.

Tennessee just lost to a mediocre Auburn team on the road to finish 3rd in the SEC standings. The Volunteers have a great neutral court win against Gonzaga and a convincing home win against Kentucky. Other than that, they have 4 Quadrant 1 losses and their next best win was a neutral court affair against Louisville. There are no bad losses on the schedule, but they didn't really do anything to make waves with losses to Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, and Kansas. They are basically 2-4 in signature games this year. I don't see how they jump Duke, even with the loss to UNC yesterday.

Kentucky has the caveat that they also played without a key starter down the stretch in big man Reid Travis. Like Duke, they are also 26-5 and finished outside of the top spot in their conference. And like Duke, they have a Quadrant 2 loss on their resume, to Seton Hall. Duke's Q2 loss was at home, but with the caveat that it was without 2 starters. Having gone to Syracuse and winning by 10, even without Zion, could be seen as "proving" the first loss was a fluke. Kentucky has the most Q1 victories, going 10-4 with the losses coming to Duke, a split of the regular season to Tennessee, at home to LSU, and on the road at Alabama.

If the seeding was to end today AND the committee knew Zion was returning with 100% certainty, I think Duke gets the nod for the other #1 seed, in the Midwest Region. I guess that is another way of saying that Duke is probably the 4th #1 seed with Michigan State as the #2 Seed in the Midwest in my mock bracket. If Duke wins on Friday night, I move Duke up to the #1 Seed in the South and if they win on Saturday, they will be the #1 Seed in the East.

If Duke loses on or before Friday, then things get interesting. UVA and UNC will have the #1 Seeds in the East and South, respectively. That leaves the Midwest and West Regions for Duke as a #2 Seed. MSU winning the B1G, or even getting to their tournament final, probably pushes Duke out West with Gonzaga. That would be the worst-case scenario for me. I'd rather be in the Midwest as a #2 Seed with Kentucky in the same bracket.

We'll see how this shakes out, but I think the top line looks like this right now:

East: UVA, Tennessee
South: UNC, Kentucky
Midwest: Duke, Michigan State
West: Gonzaga, Texas Tech

mapei
03-10-2019, 11:24 AM
Would the committee really select three ACC teams as #1 seeds, given that the fourth #1 is debatable? My second question is whether the committee would be influenced by the fact that at least two of our wins (Louisville, with Zion; Wake, without) were by razor-thin margins.

DavidBenAkiva
03-10-2019, 11:29 AM
Would the committee really select three ACC teams as #1 seeds, given that the fourth #1 is debatable? My second question is whether the committee would be influenced by the fact that at least two of our wins (Louisville, with Zion; Wake, without) were by razor-thin margins.

I have never heard of the committee debating win margins against bad teams. If you look at the whole resume, every team has "bad wins." UNC went to overtime at home to Miami. You also have to take into account a close win against UCLA (!) and losses to Texas and at home by 20+ points to Louisville. Those all look just as bad or worse than what Duke has accomplished this year. At the start of the year, if you said that Duke was going to lose 2 ACC road games all year, this board would have been delighted. The team has accomplished a great deal against incredible challenges. I'd take Duke's resume against all but 2 other teams right now, and the resume has the chance to look better than any other team in the nation come next Sunday.

mapei
03-10-2019, 11:46 AM
Good points on the "close wins." I don't watch the other teams so I lose track of their own shortcomings.

BlueDevil16
03-10-2019, 12:17 PM
Win versus UNC Friday should solidify a one seed no?

Hartford Dukie
03-10-2019, 12:27 PM
https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/\

Also....http://www.bracketwag.com/

duke2x
03-10-2019, 12:38 PM
Win versus UNC Friday should solidify a one seed no?

I don't think we have to beat either UNC or UVA next week to get a 1 seed. Coach K knew he was getting a clean slate for the last 2 weeks if Zion comes back but also was putting his eggs in 1 basket. We need to establish the games without Zion and Tre were flukes due to injury, and I strongly believe they were.

Win Friday = last #1 (MW) with a very small chance South.
Win Saturday = #1 East, probably #1 overall.

UVA is a #1 regardless of what happens. They are #1 East if they win Saturday or UNC wins the ACC Tournament. They are #1 S/MW if neither of those hold. S/MW will depend on the SEC Tournament.

The ceiling/roof for UNC is #1 MW with a small chance at the South if the SEC Tournament goes haywire.

Acymetric
03-10-2019, 01:11 PM
I don't think we have to beat either UNC or UVA next week to get a 1 seed. Coach K knew he was getting a clean slate for the last 2 weeks if Zion comes back but also was putting his eggs in 1 basket. We need to establish the games without Zion and Tre were flukes due to injury, and I strongly believe they were.

Win Friday = last #1 (MW) with a very small chance South.
Win Saturday = #1 East, probably #1 overall.

UVA is a #1 regardless of what happens. They are #1 East if they win Saturday or UNC wins the ACC Tournament. They are #1 S/MW if neither of those hold. S/MW will depend on the SEC Tournament.

The ceiling/roof for UNC is #1 MW with a small chance at the South if the SEC Tournament goes haywire.

I think when people say we need to beat UNC or UVA they're just assuming that chalk holds in the other brackets and are really making a comment about how far we need to go in the tournament to get a 1 seed.

I agree with your assessment, with the caveat that winning on Friday (but losing on Saturday) probably gets us a #1 as long as Zion looks like his his old self. If he isn't playing up to his previous form, it makes it harder for the committee to overlook what happened in his absence and we may end up as a high 2-seed as a result. This depends heavily on what happens in the SEC and Big 10 tournaments (I feel like one of those conferences will get the last 1 seed over a third ACC team unless all three ACC teams leave no doubt). Win Saturday and we're a #1 no matter what happens, who plays, etc (IMO).

I think there are still 9 teams with at least an outside shot at a #1 seed, much will depend on how things shake out in the conference tournaments. Of those 9, one will obviously end up a 3 seed (I would guess either Michigan or Mich. State).

75Crazie
03-10-2019, 02:36 PM
I could be tempted to put my life savings on the probability of Duke and Kentucky being placed in the same regional. That is not a statement regarding the science of seeding or ranking.

DavidBenAkiva
03-11-2019, 09:42 AM
Bracket Matrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/) update as of Sunday, March 10th has the following:

1 Seeds: Virginia, Gonzaga, North Carolina, Duke
2 Seeds: Kentucky, Tennessee, Michigan State, Michigan

Duke is in a tenuous position. A loss before reaching the ACC Tournament Finals would make a 2 seed a real possibility.

Even with a loss on Thursday or Friday night in the ACC Tournament, I don't think Michigan State or Michigan have the resume to jump Duke. What's MSU's signature win? Out of conference, it is Florida or Texas. Those are the only Q1 or 2 non-conference games they won this year. They also have a couple of bad losses, including to Illinois. The resume isn't strong enough, even with a B1G Tournament Title. In conference, they had that 3-game losing streak and those two losses to Indiana.

One of Kentucky or Tennessee could jump Duke. Of course, those two teams will most likely face each other in the SEC Tournament semis on Saturday afternoon. And then they have to win the SEC Tournament against LSU or some other team. I think Kentucky or Tennessee have to win their tournament to move up to a 1 Seed. If Both Kentucky and Duke stop short of their conference tournament title while losing to another top team, they have pretty similar resumes. And Duke has that head-to-head matchup win from November. I think the committee would give the nod to Duke if neither are conference tourney winners.

Tennessee is a little harder to figure out. The Volunteers do have that neutral-court win against Gonzaga. Other signature wins include the home game against Kentucky and that's really about it. They beat Louisville and Memphis out of conference, the latter of which is not even a tournament team. In their favor, they have no bad losses. But all of Duke's losses, with the exception of the one to Gonzaga, were with one or more starters injured. And Duke has those wins against Kentucky, two against Virginia, and Texas Tech. There are more quality wins and no real bad losses. If you go by strength of schedule, Duke is #2 in Division I-only and #6 in DI non-conference while Tennessee is #65 and #118, respectively. Short of winning the SEC Tournament, I don't think Tennessee would jump Duke, either.

So Duke gets a 1 Seed with an ACC Tournament Finals appearance OR if both of Kentucky and Tennessee fail to win the SEC Tournament. That's my position and I'm sticking to it!

hibby91
03-11-2019, 10:23 AM
I could be tempted to put my life savings on the probability of Duke and Kentucky being placed in the same regional. That is not a statement regarding the science of seeding or ranking.

I'm hopeful that this doesn't happen in Louisville. Actually, I'd prefer that Duke not plan in the South, with or without Kentucky in the same region. We'll welcome them in KC.

UrinalCake
03-11-2019, 10:28 AM
I guess a question is how much value will the committee place on overall resume versus how much they look at recent results. We had some great wins early in the season - Kentucky, Auburn, Texas Tech - and had only the Gonzaga loss coming into the first Syracuse game. On paper, our overall resume still looks good. But if they were to value the last 10 games, which they randomly do some years and not others, then we look pretty average. Not having Zion will be a factor, but it won't completely erase the losses.

Troublemaker
03-11-2019, 10:53 AM
I guess a question is how much value will the committee place on overall resume versus how much they look at recent results. We had some great wins early in the season - Kentucky, Auburn, Texas Tech - and had only the Gonzaga loss coming into the first Syracuse game. On paper, our overall resume still looks good. But if they were to value the last 10 games, which they randomly do some years and not others, then we look pretty average. Not having Zion will be a factor, but it won't completely erase the losses.

In recent years, they've done away with weighing recent results more, according to this article about whether that's advisable (https://www.insidescience.org/news/brief-march-madness-seeding-may-undervalue-hot-teams).

The Zion situation is so unique. He's the best and most recognizable player in college basketball. The committee is going to be hyper-aware that Duke has been playing without him.

It's a lot of pressure to have to perform well right away with him back, particularly the first two games. But if Duke happens to do just that, I have no doubt we'll be rewarded. The committee would get panned by the talking heads if they didn't give Duke a 1-seed if Zion's back playing well.

wavedukefan70s
03-11-2019, 10:57 AM
Even with the seasons body of work.with zion coming back.i believe the Bolden injury may sway the committee a bit at this point.the reality being zion isnt back yet.(I'm sure he will be )if they were to make a decision today.no way we can get a one seed.we have to prove ourselves in the acc tourney. If by some freaky circumstances we go out early in the acc like our 1st game .I can see us being a high 3 (a stretch I know)but most likely a 1st or 2nd two seed.it will probably depend on the personal goals of some of the committee members.i believe that to have played roles in the decision making in the past.bottom line I believe the Bolden Injury has some wieght not as much as zions .

flyingdutchdevil
03-11-2019, 11:19 AM
1) UVa is nearly guaranteed a 1-seed. If they win 1 game in the ACC tournament, they are a definite 1 seed. If they win the whole thing, they are the 1-overall seed.

2) Gonzaga, barring a major catastrophe, is a 1-seed. And thank goodness Gonzaga is on the West Coast!

3) I think there can only be 2 ACC 1-seed, even if 3 may be deserving. As a result, if Duke and UNC win their respective quarter finals game, the winner of that game gets a 1-seed

4) Kentucky is in the best position, right now, for that last 1-seed. The SEC, with UK, UT, and LSU, is a very strong, top-heavy conference. If UK wins the SEC tourney, they get it. If Tennessee wins, they may get it.

5) The other conference in position for a 1-seed is the Big 10. MSU or UM need to win out to surpass the SEC, and they only get a 1-seed if either UK or UT do not win out.

So, my prediction for 1-seeds? UVa, Gonzaga, either Duke/UNC, and UK (assuming they win out). If UK loses and UT wins, then UT. If both lose, MSU or UM. If all four of those teams lose, then UK for their body of work.

fuse
03-11-2019, 11:38 AM
Iím of the opinion that this year, our seeding matters very little.
We are either going to advance the narrative of ďDuke gets all the calls/breaksĒ if we end up a 1 seed. We will be the 2 seed no one wants in their bracket.

Yes, of course, seeding always matters.
For Duke, this season, what matters is if Zion can play at a high level again this season or not.

All the pundits predicting 3 ACC teams as one seeds are certifiable.
UVa will be a one, and either Duke or that other team down the road.

The only way there are 3 ACC one seeds is if there is major conference tourney carnage (Gonzaga, Kentucky, Tennessee lose early).

Troublemaker
03-11-2019, 11:56 AM
I’m of the opinion that this year, our seeding matters very little.
We are either going to advance the narrative of “Duke gets all the calls/breaks” if we end up a 1 seed. We will be the 2 seed no one wants in their bracket.

Don't think that will be the narrative.

Duke has a terrific resume. If you just go to Bracket Matrix and go down the line, Duke has the following record:

#1s - Two wins over overall #1 seed UVA, home and away. A 2-1 record overall against 1-seeds when Zion plays.
#2s - A blowout win over the highest 2-seed UK on a neutral court. No losses.
#3s - A win over Texas Tech on a neutral court. No losses
#4s - A road win @FSU. No losses.

No team in the country can match this resume.

DarkstarWahoo
03-11-2019, 12:07 PM
So who's the overall 1 if things get really weird in Charlotte? I'm thinking along the lines of (blecch) a VT-UNC final. Gonzaga?

I'm sorry I even raised the possibility.

devildeac
03-11-2019, 12:10 PM
So who's the overall 1 if things get really weird in Charlotte? I'm thinking along the lines of (blecch) a VT-UNC final. Gonzaga?

I'm sorry I even raised the possibility.

I'll start a vigil with UVa fans for a meteor or three if that happens. Blecch.

Hoosnwhat
03-11-2019, 12:15 PM
So who's the overall 1 if things get really weird in Charlotte? I'm thinking along the lines of (blecch) a VT-UNC final. Gonzaga?

I'm sorry I even raised the possibility.

Oh lord please no.

But yes, I think it'd be Gonzaga. Maybe Zags, UVA, UNC, and then would depend on the SEC (for the one seeds)?

duke2x
03-11-2019, 01:03 PM
So who's the overall 1 if things get really weird in Charlotte? I'm thinking along the lines of (blecch) a VT-UNC final. Gonzaga? I'm sorry I even raised the possibility.

You could have said Clemson-GT final. Consider yourself anti-sporked. :)

I would break things down into tiers at this point. A rule of thumb is you lose a seed if you go 0-1 in your conference tournament. Against the top 6-7 this week, going 1-1 should do the same.

Tier 1: Gonzaga and UVA. #1 seed regardless, 1-2 against the top group but no OK or bad losses. The only question for UVA is geographic location not in the West.
Tier 2: Duke, UNC, KY, TN. #1-2 seed depending on what happens. Geographic placement will be S/MW except Duke getting the East if we win out. KY and UNC lead here as of today.
Overall #1: UVA, Gonzaga, or Duke (if we win out). KY is the longest of shots.

I don't think MSU or Houston belong on the top 2 tiers due to losses and schedule. MSU would sneak into the S/MW as a #2 with a strong Big 10 tournament.

ElliottHoo
03-11-2019, 01:21 PM
3) I think there can only be 2 ACC 1-seed, even if 3 may be deserving. As a result, if Duke and UNC win their respective quarter finals game, the winner of that game gets a 1-seed

I think 3 #1s is still doable, but it'll take help. It would have been easier if you guys had beaten the Cheats the other night. Then get Zion back at full health and make it to the ACCT semis and I think you'd have been a lock for a 1. UNC's got a good resume, but not quite as good, but an ACCT win would have guaranteed them another #1, and I think UVA is a #1 as long as they don't lose their first game. I think that scenario would have given the ACC 3 #1s even with things going chalk in the SEC.

But you guys losing makes it a little trickier. You guys getting Zion back AND winning the ACCT feels like overkill to get you a #1, and I'm not sure UNC losing to you in the semis is enough to get them a #1 if UK or the Vols win in the SEC. On the other hand, you guys losing to UNC in the semis feels like it might leave you short. The resume value just doesn't even out quite as nicely.

I'm not a UNC fan (which sucks, because my dad went there for grad school. But that was a long time ago and he turned his back on them after the extent of the scandal was clear), but I'd love to see the ACC get 3 #1s. Its possible, but will probably require LSU or Auburn to win the SEC tournament, and a Wisconsin-Purdue B1G tournament finals wouldn't hurt.

troach42
03-11-2019, 01:33 PM
Based on resume alone, I can honestly only see one scenario where Duke (with Zion playing) DOES NOT get a #1 seed this year - a loss in the first round of the ACCT against either Syracuse or Pitt/BC. Win that game and they are locked in to a 1 seed. And I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC did in fact get three number ones. Both KY and UT have floundered down the stretch, and Duke has a destruction of KY on their resume. Neither of the BiG schools from Michigan has a resume anywhere near Duke's. And all of the recent losses for Duke in conference are "acceptable", especially when you add in the fact that the best player in all of college basketball was hurt and unable to play.

Now, if Zion can't play in the ACCT (or if he is severely limited), and they lose to UNC or UL in round 2, I definitely see Duke getting a 2 seed, because of the uncertainty of Zion's ability to be effecting in the NCAAT. The Bolden injury, which IMO is a very significant one for Duke, likely won't have any affect on Duke's seeding.

Nugget
03-11-2019, 02:27 PM
Based on resume alone, I can honestly only see one scenario where Duke (with Zion playing) DOES NOT get a #1 seed this year - a loss in the first round of the ACCT against either Syracuse or Pitt/BC. Win that game and they are locked in to a 1 seed. And I wouldn't be surprised if the ACC did in fact get three number ones. Both KY and UT have floundered down the stretch, and Duke has a destruction of KY on their resume. Neither of the BiG schools from Michigan has a resume anywhere near Duke's. And all of the recent losses for Duke in conference are "acceptable", especially when you add in the fact that the best player in all of college basketball was hurt and unable to play.

Now, if Zion can't play in the ACCT (or if he is severely limited), and they lose to UNC or UL in round 2, I definitely see Duke getting a 2 seed, because of the uncertainty of Zion's ability to be effecting in the NCAAT. The Bolden injury, which IMO is a very significant one for Duke, likely won't have any affect on Duke's seeding.

Kentucky definitely hasn't "floundered" down the stretch. They've gone 16-2 in their last 18 games, with the losses to LSU at the buzzer on what everyone concedes was a blown call, and a blowout at Tennessee in a revenge game.

As numerous others have noted in this thread, based on resumes as of today, Duke, UNC and Kentucky are essentially tied for the 3rd and 4th #1 seeds (I think all three are clearly ahead of Michigan St and Tenn based on current resumes).

All 3 of us are 26-5.

In Q1/Q2 games, we're 14-5, Kentucky is 15-5 and UNC is 16-5.

Head to Head we beat Kentucky, Kentucky beat UNC and UNC swept us (albeit both without Zion).

The other "good wins" are very comparable, with Duke possibly having a slight edge on Kentucky and both having an edge on UNC -- due to its favorable league schedule, has fewer high end road wins:
Duke-@ U.Va., U.Va, Texas Tech (neutral), @ Fla St, @ Louisville, Auburn (neutral), @ Syracuse
Kentucky-Tenn, Kansas, @ Louisville, @ Auburn, Auburn, @ Miss St., Miss St,. @ Florida, Florida, Ole Miss
UNC-Gonzaga, @ Louisville, Va Tech, Fla St., @ Wofford, @ NC St., Syracuse

Duke's "bad" losses are a little "better" than both UNC's and Kentucky's:
Duke-home to Syracuse (without Tre) and @ Va Tech (without Zion)
Kentucky-Seton Hall (neutral), @ Alabama
UNC-home to Louisville, Texas (neutral).

As of today, however, the wildcard would be Zion's absence -- we've not looked great without him, whereas UK has weathered the loss of Travis better.

Given how close the three teams are, I think the conference tournaments really will serve a tie-breaker role -- especially if we advance to the semis and play Carolina. If we were to lose that game (even with Zion playing and looking healthy), while Kentucky were to beat Tennessee, I'd imagine UK and UNC would get the #1s over us, irrespective of whether they went on to win the conference finals.

Personally, I'd sort of like to avoid being sent to the South and bracketed with Kentucky to play in Louisville -- in a game where it would make no difference if we were the 1 seed and them the 2 or the other way around.

UrinalCake
03-11-2019, 03:03 PM
Based on resume alone, I can honestly only see one scenario where Duke (with Zion playing) DOES NOT get a #1 seed this year - a loss in the first round of the ACCT against either Syracuse or Pitt/BC.

Strongly disagree. If Zion comes back and we struggle to pull out a narrow win against Syracuse and then lose by double digits to the CHeats or Louisville, which is really not that far-fetched of a scenario, then I donít see any way we would jump into a #1 seed. We are on the outside looking in right now, and the polls are still giving us the benefit of the doubt with respect to Zion coming back as good as he was previously. He needs to not only play but dominate, and the team needs to make the ACCT final at a minimum for the committee to believe we are the team we were three weeks ago who deserved a #1.

scottdude8
03-11-2019, 03:11 PM
In lieu of my typical "NET News" post on the topic, you can see some of my NET based analysis in article form on the front page (https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2019/3/11/18259492/an-updated-look-at-duke-the-net-and-who-might-get-a-1-seed-acc-tournament-zion-williamson).

For the TL;DR crowd: under the assumption that we look better with Zion than we have without (which, barring some reintegration/chemistry issues will in all likelihood be the case), the NET and Team Sheets put us in fantastic shape if we make it to the ACC Tourney finals, and we'd still have a strong argument if we lose, but look strong, in the ACC semis.

troach42
03-11-2019, 03:12 PM
Strongly disagree. If Zion comes back and we struggle to pull out a narrow win against Syracuse and then lose by double digits to the CHeats or Louisville, which is really not that far-fetched of a scenario, then I don’t see any way we would jump into a #1 seed. We are on the outside looking in right now, and the polls are still giving us the benefit of the doubt with respect to Zion coming back as good as he was previously. He needs to not only play but dominate, and the team needs to make the ACCT final at a minimum for the committee to believe we are the team we were three weeks ago who deserved a #1.

Do you honestly think that Duke, a team that just lost by 9 on the road to UNC without their best player, could lose by "double digits" a week later to that same UNC team, in a neutral site, with him?

All season, Duke has been the best team in the country, and this has not been a source for much debate. The only thing that has stopped Duke has been health, and every loss since December 1 has been directly linked to an injury to a critical player. If everyone is healthy, this is the best team with the best resume in the country. The committee knows this, and if Zion is able to demonstrate he is fully healthy this week, they will seed Duke accordingly.

Troublemaker
03-11-2019, 03:17 PM
Do you honestly think that Duke, a team that just lost by 9 on the road to UNC without their best player, could lose by "double digits" a week later to that same UNC team, in a neutral site, with him?

All season, Duke has been the best team in the country, and this has not been a source for much debate. The only thing that has stopped Duke has been health, and every loss since December 1 has been directly linked to an injury to a critical player. If everyone is healthy, this is the best team with the best resume in the country. The committee knows this, and if Zion is able to demonstrate he is fully healthy this week, they will seed Duke accordingly.

I more or less agree with the rest of your post, and this is probably just a matter of semantics, but yes, it's possible. It's basketball. Golden St just lost at home to Phoenix last night.

Maybe Zion is hesitant upon his return, or maybe Duke just quite isn't clicking on all cylinders right away with him back. Maybe UNC shoots lights out, even on challenged shots.

Nugget
03-11-2019, 04:43 PM
It's also worth nothing that, with the last of the pre-weekend mock brackets filtering out of the Bracket Matrix, the consensus it now reflects is:

1 seeds: 1 Virginia, 2 Gonzaga, 3 UNC, 4 Kentucky
2 seeds: 5 Duke, 6 Mich St, 7 Tenn, 8 Michigan

Acymetric
03-11-2019, 05:16 PM
It's also worth nothing that, with the last of the pre-weekend mock brackets filtering out of the Bracket Matrix, the consensus it now reflects is:

1 seeds: 1 Virginia, 2 Gonzaga, 3 UNC, 4 Kentucky
2 seeds: 5 Duke, 6 Mich St, 7 Tenn, 8 Michigan

Yep. A few things I've been saying for a while now: There are 9 teams in contention for the top 8 seeds (Gonzaga, UVA, Kentucky, Duke, unc, Michigan, Michigan State, LSU, Tennessee). I think all 9 have potential paths to a 1 seed depending on who wins their tourney and who flames out early (although LSU needs help from several of the other teams).

A case could be made that 2 more teams (Purdue and Texas Tech) could eke out a 2 seed, but it would require that they win their respective tournaments and several of the teams ahead of them bomb out in the first game of their respective tourneys so I consider it highly unlikely.

If you're wondering how LSU could pull it off, they

win their tournament. I think this would vault them ahead of Tennessee and Kentucky (they would most likely have to beat one of them in the finals).
Need Michigan and Michigan State not to win the Big 10, and ideally for both to lose before the finals
Need one of Duke or unc to lose early, and for the other not to win the ACC


The path to 3 ACC #1 seeds:

unc and Duke advance to the semis
Duke beats unc
Duke goes on to win the tournament
None of the following teams win their conference (ideally don't make it to the finals): Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan State
Maybe add Michigan to that list, I'm on the fence about them
LSU still might take the 4th #1 if they win their tournament over unc in the above scenario


The path for Duke to get a 1 seed:

Decent chance: Make it to the conference finals
Pretty good chance: Make it to the conference finals and Zion looks all the way back
Lock: Win the ACC Tournament

DavidBenAkiva
03-12-2019, 08:42 AM
It's also worth nothing that, with the last of the pre-weekend mock brackets filtering out of the Bracket Matrix, the consensus it now reflects is:

1 seeds: 1 Virginia, 2 Gonzaga, 3 UNC, 4 Kentucky
2 seeds: 5 Duke, 6 Mich St, 7 Tenn, 8 Michigan

This seems pretty clear that reaching the ACC Tournament Finals will result in Duke earning a #1 Seed. None of the non-ACC Teams, with the exception of Tennessee, will have a chance to hang a loss on potential 1 seed during its conference tournament.

After throwing around some ideas yesterday, here's what I think:

Duke makes it to Saturday and it earns a 1 seed. An ACC Tournament Title determines which bracket (win = East, loss = South or more likely Midwest). A loss before the ACC Tournament Final would require a very fluky outcome in the other conference tournaments, like Maryland winning the B1G AND Florida winning the SEC, for Duke to get a 1 seed.

UNC has similar math - win on Friday = 1 seed. A loss to Duke would make UNC 3-3 against the group of Duke, Kentucky, Gonzaga, and Virginia with 4 (Duke in all 3 games and Gonzaga without Killian Tillie) of those games against a team that was not playing at its full compliment. Losing wouldn't be the end of their 1 seed chances, but it would make it very unlikely.

Kentucky and Tennessee have to win the SEC tournament to get a 1 seed. Duke and Kentucky have a resume that is too similar with Duke having the head-to-head matchup. Tennessee doesn't have as strong a resume having essentially not played a significant game for the better part of 2 months during the season. Losing to Kentucky, who then loses to LSU, would put Tennessee in serious jeopardy of a 3 seed, depending upon how far Michigan, Michigan State, LSU, and Texas Tech advance this week.

Of all the teams on the 2-seed line, Michigan has a very strong resume and has, I think, a chance at a 1 seed. Winning the B1G Tournament would mean advancing past Purdue in the semis and then possibly Michigan State (or maybe Wisconsin or Maryland). They would end the season with 5 losses, none particularly bad (maybe the Penn State loss) and a number of quality wins, like UNC. Charles Matthews didn't play for Michigan at the end of the season, so the loss at MSU might be discounted a bit (although MSU was without Nick Ward).

I don't see how Michigan State gets a 1 seed unless Kentucky and Tennessee both lose this week and UNC advances to the ACC Tournament Final. MSU has one more loss than Duke at this point. Duke has the superior strength of schedule, more signature wins, and fewer bad losses. The Spartans have 0 signature wins in the non-conference, having lost to Kansas and Louisville with wins over Florida and Texas. They have 2 Quadrant 2 losses, including at Illinois. They lost twice to Indiana. Their resume is just not that good. A lot of their troubles are due to injuries, no doubt. They've been bit bad by the injury bug. But so has Duke. When you look at the two resumes side-by-side, Duke would have to be a strong favorite to get the nod as a 1 seed over MSU - even with a B1G Tournament Title.

So the most likely scenario, as far as I can see it, is that Gonzaga, Virginia, Duke or UNC, and probably Kentucky or Tennessee will be the 1 Seeds on Sunday night with a slight chance of the ACC getting 3 1 seeds or Michigan sneaking in and taking the Midwest.

Bluedog
03-12-2019, 09:06 AM
One thing that we're not really considering is that I think it's very possible Louisville beats UNC (they beat them in the Dean Dome this year) and Duke vs. UNC round 3 does not happen. Ironically, would that potentially hurt us from a seeding perspective (if we make the finals but lost to UVa)? I guess depends on how good we look (or don't) in the semis regardless of opponent. Either way, I'll be cheering fervently for the 'Ville and Duke to advance.

scottdude8
03-12-2019, 09:19 AM
One thing that we're not really considering is that I think it's very possible Louisville beats UNC (they beat them in the Dean Dome this year) and Duke vs. UNC round 3 does not happen. Ironically, would that potentially hurt us from a seeding perspective (if we make the finals but lost to UVa)? I guess depends on how good we look (or don't) in the semis regardless of opponent. Either way, I'll be cheering fervently for the 'Ville and Duke to advance.

Thatís a good question. If that were to happen, I think a Duke team that makes the final would be above UNC, considering A) that would give us two more Q1 wins and B) it would mean weíve looked good with Zion in at least two games.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the committee has been notoriously inconsistent when it comes to how heavily it factors in head to head matchups. In 2017 we beat UNC 2 out of 3 and were the hottest team in the country after winning the ACC Tourney, but UNC was seeded ahead of us based on a better overall season resume. Last season Michigan was 2-0 against MSU and won the B1G tourney, but was seeded below MSU, again largely because of overall resume. If that pattern stays consistent, in the scenario described here history would be on our side... but the committee is fickle.

DavidBenAkiva
03-12-2019, 09:25 AM
One thing that we're not really considering is that I think it's very possible Louisville beats UNC (they beat them in the Dean Dome this year) and Duke vs. UNC round 3 does not happen. Ironically, would that potentially hurt us from a seeding perspective (if we make the finals but lost to UVa)? I guess depends on how good we look (or don't) in the semis regardless of opponent. Either way, I'll be cheering fervently for the 'Ville and Duke to advance.

That helps Duke. Any loss by a team ahead of them helps Duke get to a 1 seed. Kentucky losing and/or UNC losing gives Duke a great shot at earning a 1 seed.

robed deity
03-12-2019, 09:29 AM
One thing that we're not really considering is that I think it's very possible Louisville beats UNC (they beat them in the Dean Dome this year) and Duke vs. UNC round 3 does not happen. Ironically, would that potentially hurt us from a seeding perspective (if we make the finals but lost to UVa)? I guess depends on how good we look (or don't) in the semis regardless of opponent. Either way, I'll be cheering fervently for the 'Ville and Duke to advance.

And Duke has to get by Syracuse! Hopefully Tre can limit Battle again.

DBGoins
03-12-2019, 09:37 AM
Does anyone think it is possible to push Virginia out of the East if Duke beats them a third time this week? I'm thinking yes...

If we can't, does it really matter if we get a 1 or 2 seed. I feel like Virginia and Gonzaga are #1 no matter what happens this week. The other two spots are going to be filled by Duke or UNC and Kentucky. Either way we would be going to Louisville or Kansas City for the regionals with a matchup of the SEC (Kentucky if we are at #2 - Tenn. or LSU if we are a #1) or Big 10 (one of the Michigans). The only scenario I wouldn't want to see is being a #2 seed in the south with Kentucky the #1 seed.

At this point we are probably going to be in South Carolina with the cheats the first and second round, not sure that is going to change with this weeks results.

Troublemaker
03-12-2019, 09:45 AM
Does anyone think it is possible to push Virginia out of the East if Duke beats them a third time this week? I'm thinking yes...

I think so. I don't even think we need to go through them as long as we win the ACCT because 3-0 against UVA isn't that much better than 2-0.

If UVA loses early in the ACCT and Duke looks "back" while winning the ACCT, I would bet on Duke being in the East.

I'm with DBA in his analysis. We don't need to beat specific teams to attain our seeding goals. We just need to win games, and the more dominant we look winning games with Zion, the better. In other words, we can root for UNC to lose early, for UVA to lose early.

English
03-12-2019, 09:48 AM
Does anyone think it is possible to push Virginia out of the East if Duke beats them a third time this week? I'm thinking yes...

If we can't, does it really matter if we get a 1 or 2 seed. I feel like Virginia and Gonzaga are #1 no matter what happens this week. The other two spots are going to be filled by Duke or UNC and Kentucky. Either way we would be going to Louisville or Kansas City for the regionals with a matchup of the SEC (Kentucky if we are at #2 - Tenn. or LSU if we are a #1) or Big 10 (one of the Michigans). The only scenario I wouldn't want to see is being a #2 seed in the south with Kentucky the #1 seed.

At this point we are probably going to be in South Carolina with the cheats the first and second round, not sure that is going to change with this weeks results.

Unscientifically, I think if we win the ACCT (whether we beat UVa or not), we get the East. We were the No. 1 overall seed with a healthy Zion, and if the Committee sees we're back to that level of play with a healthy Zion back in the fold, I think they sufficiently discount the losses without him to return us to that peak.

I do think it matters whether we're a 1-seed or a 2-seed. Besides that fact that 1-seeds generally get weaker competition, by design, the thought of being the 2 in the South with UK as the one is a pretty vile possibility, IMO. Of course, we have no idea whether UK will win the SECT and we could end up the 1 in the South and them the 2, but I see the odds of UK not being a 1-seed and ending up in the South as quite low. That would assume that they lose to either Tenn, LSU, or some lower-tier SEC team...and then still end up in the region they want over Tenn and LSU. Possible, yes, if Tenn somehow snatched a 1-seed and it ended up being the MW, but again, I don't see the odds of that.

ETA: It seems TM is quicker on the draw than I am.

DarkstarWahoo
03-12-2019, 11:18 AM
If it works out this way, it would be very odd to see Duke as the Vegas favorite from the 2 line.

robed deity
03-12-2019, 11:24 AM
If it works out this way, it would be very odd to see Duke as the Vegas favorite from the 2 line.

Not sure where Vegas had it, but I'm pretty sure Villanova 2016 was at least one of the favorites.

devildeac
03-12-2019, 11:34 AM
Not sure where Vegas had it, but I'm pretty sure Villanova 2016 was at least one of the favorites.

Kris Jenkins is still one of my favorite non-Duke players. :D

robed deity
03-12-2019, 11:49 AM
Kris Jenkins is still one of my favorite non-Duke players. :D

The most excited I ever got for a non-Duke game.

ns7
03-12-2019, 12:28 PM
Thatís a good question. If that were to happen, I think a Duke team that makes the final would be above UNC, considering A) that would give us two more Q1 wins and B) it would mean weíve looked good with Zion in at least two games.

The other thing to keep in mind is that the committee has been notoriously inconsistent when it comes to how heavily it factors in head to head matchups. In 2017 we beat UNC 2 out of 3 and were the hottest team in the country after winning the ACC Tourney, but UNC was seeded ahead of us based on a better overall season resume. Last season Michigan was 2-0 against MSU and won the B1G tourney, but was seeded below MSU, again largely because of overall resume. If that pattern stays consistent, in the scenario described here history would be on our side... but the committee is fickle.

This is a really good point. I'll also add that UNC was slotted above Duke last year because of the head-to-head despite Duke's better overall resume. Yet as you note, MSU was seeded above Michigan because of overall resume that same year. So the committee has been inconsistent both across years and within years.

UrinalCake
03-12-2019, 01:35 PM
This is a really good point. I'll also add that UNC was slotted above Duke last year because of the head-to-head despite Duke's better overall resume.

Basically the committee will bend over backwards to give the CHeats the best possible seed. Part of the NCAAís apology for all the heartache they caused while unfairly investigating them for decades of cheating.

DukeTrinity11
03-12-2019, 03:26 PM
Why is everyone worried about facing UK in Louisville? They have no shot against us regardless of if the crowd is 100% for UK or not with the way matchups play out.

Their most consistent scorer lately is Tyler Herro and Reddish would be able to shut him down with his length and wingspan. Zion would limit PJ Washington while PJ wouldn't have a prayer at stopping a healthy Zion.

Jones > Hagans
Reddish > Herro
Barrett > Johnson
Zion > PJ

Who knows what we can expect from Reid Travis or Bolden two weekends from now if that matchup were to materialize but I don't see either of them swinging the game for either team.

I'm not really worried about any teams besides UVA and the Zags and we'd only play then in Final 4.

We've got bigger fish to fry than worry about a team we beat by 34 to start the year. :cool:

Nugget
03-12-2019, 03:49 PM
Why is everyone worried about facing UK in Louisville? They have no shot against us regardless of if the crowd is 100% for UK or not with the way matchups play out.

Their most consistent scorer lately is Tyler Herro and Reddish would be able to shut him down with his length and wingspan. Zion would limit PJ Washington while PJ wouldn't have a prayer at stopping a healthy Zion.

Jones > Hagans
Reddish > Herro
Barrett > Johnson
Zion > PJ

Who knows what we can expect from Reid Travis or Bolden two weekends from now if that matchup were to materialize but I don't see either of them swinging the game for either team.

I'm not really worried about any teams besides UVA and the Zags and we'd only play then in Final 4.

We've got bigger fish to fry than worry about a team we beat by 34 to start the year. :cool:

Some of us are old enough to remember how an obviously better 1998 Duke team blew an 18 point lead in a regional final road game against Kentucky.

Tripping William
03-12-2019, 03:51 PM
Some of us are old enough to remember how an obviously better 1998 Duke team blew an 18 point lead in a regional final road game against Kentucky.

Too soon. Way, way, way too soon.

DukeTrinity11
03-12-2019, 03:57 PM
Duke is a lock to be the #1 Overall Seed in the East if we win the ACCT. The Finals game vs UVA (if both teams make it that far) would be for the right to play in the East and in DC for the Regional games.

If Duke loses to UVA in the Finals, then we're #1 in the South Region likely with the loser of UK and UT as our #2.

If Duke loses to Syracuse in the Quarters, we'd likely be the #2 Seed in either the Midwest or the South depending on who does better in the conference tournaments between UK and UNC.

If Duke loses to UNC on Friday, Duke would likely be the #2 Seed in the South matched up vs either UT or UK as our #1 since geographically we can't be in the same region as UNC, who would surely be a #1 Seed in that scenario.

Basically, it seems likely that Duke, UNC, UK and UT will be matched up together as 1 or 2 Seeds in some form or another due to geography alignment with MSU/LSU/TTU ending up as either UVA or Gonzaga's #2.

DukeTrinity11
03-12-2019, 03:59 PM
Some of us are old enough to remember how an obviously better 1998 Duke team blew an 18 point lead in a regional final road game against Kentucky.

Coach K foolishly stuck with Wojo to guard Wayne Turner instead of putting in William Avery who was a better matchup for him if I recall.

Troublemaker
03-12-2019, 04:14 PM
Why is everyone worried about facing UK in Louisville? They have no shot against us regardless of if the crowd is 100% for UK or not with the way matchups play out.

How'd you feel about playing South Carolina in Greenville in 2017? While I probably agree with you about the matchups favoring us, let's have Zion return and Duke look good in the ACCT before we pooh-pooh playing UK in Kentucky.

In any case, I'm hoping Duke gets a 1-seed and the committee is smart enough to not allow a 2-seed to have homecourt advantage.

Nugget
03-12-2019, 06:18 PM
Duke is a lock to be the #1 Overall Seed in the East if we win the ACCT. The Finals game vs UVA (if both teams make it that far) would be for the right to play in the East and in DC for the Regional games.

If Duke loses to UVA in the Finals, then we're #1 in the South Region likely with the loser of UK and UT as our #2.

If Duke loses to Syracuse in the Quarters, we'd likely be the #2 Seed in either the Midwest or the South depending on who does better in the conference tournaments between UK and UNC.

If Duke loses to UNC on Friday, Duke would likely be the #2 Seed in the South matched up vs either UT or UK as our #1 since geographically we can't be in the same region as UNC, who would surely be a #1 Seed in that scenario.

Basically, it seems likely that Duke, UNC, UK and UT will be matched up together as 1 or 2 Seeds in some form or another due to geography alignment with MSU/LSU/TTU ending up as either UVA or Gonzaga's #2.

I think your scenarios are generally right with the possible exception that if we beat Syracuse and Carolina and then lose to U.Va. in the finals, and Kentucky would the 2 seed to our #1, they could well move us to the Midwest -- figuring, I believe correctly, that Duke would rather have to play Kentucky a little bit further away from home in K.C. than be matched up with them in Louisville.

uh_no
03-12-2019, 06:38 PM
if Duke shows they're at their prior level with Zion, i can't imagine their not getting a one.... since that means we cream unc and play great against uva

Duke07
03-12-2019, 06:39 PM
If Duke beats UNC/UVA to win the ACCT I'm holding out hope for the East 1 seed. I'd like to avoid being a 1 in the south w/ UK/Tenn as our 2 but we'll see.

freshmanjs
03-12-2019, 07:05 PM
I know it won't happen, but if, by some miracle, St. Mary's beats Gonzaga tonight, what seed does Gonzaga get?

duke2x
03-12-2019, 07:07 PM
I know it won't happen, but if, by some miracle, St. Mary's beats Gonzaga tonight, what seed does Gonzaga get?

1. St. Mary's is a bubble team.

uh_no
03-12-2019, 07:09 PM
1. St. Mary's is a bubble team.

yep. Gonzaga is a literal lock at this point.

Acymetric
03-12-2019, 07:51 PM
If UMBC wins tonight and again tomorrow, does the committee set up a rematch with Virginia?

duke2x
03-12-2019, 08:14 PM
No rematch with UVA. I would rather have Hartford win because they are on our schedule.

Tooold
03-12-2019, 09:51 PM
Does a loss by Gonzaga to st maryís in the WCC tournament drop them from #1 seed?

freshmanjs
03-12-2019, 09:53 PM
1. St. Mary's is a bubble team.


yep. Gonzaga is a literal lock at this point.

You guys are probably right, but not sure if the facts merit the absolute lock status. Why would a 3 loss Gonzaga team be ahead of a 5 loss Duke team as of now? Duke has a much tougher schedule, much higher quality wins, and the injury factor.

robed deity
03-12-2019, 09:53 PM
Really impressive from St Mary's. They controlled it from start to finish.

uh_no
03-12-2019, 09:56 PM
You guys are probably right, but not sure if the facts merit the absolute lock status. Why would a 3 loss Gonzaga team be ahead of a 5 loss Duke team as of now? Duke has a much tougher schedule, much higher quality wins, and the injury factor.

H2H....but more importantly, gonzaga is #1 in NET.

freshmanjs
03-12-2019, 09:57 PM
H2H...but more importantly, gonzaga is #1 in NET.

H2H can't be a deciding factor, though. Otherwise you would spin in circles between UNC, Duke, Virginia, Kentucky, and Gonzaga.

uh_no
03-12-2019, 10:00 PM
H2H can't be a deciding factor, though. Otherwise you would spin in circles between UNC, Duke, Virginia, Kentucky, and Gonzaga.

the deciding factor can be whatever the committee wants it to be on a case by case basis.

Duke79UNLV77
03-12-2019, 10:02 PM
You guys are probably right, but not sure if the facts merit the absolute lock status. Why would a 3 loss Gonzaga team be ahead of a 5 loss Duke team as of now? Duke has a much tougher schedule, much higher quality wins, and the injury factor.

Or a 4-loss Tennessee team that beat Gonzaga and recently blew out Kentucky, considering that UT, Kentucky, Duke, and uncheat can still add major wins.

freshmanjs
03-12-2019, 10:04 PM
the deciding factor can be whatever the committee wants it to be on a case by case basis.

Obviously. Of the 2 reasons you have cited for why Gonzaga is clearly ahead of Duke right now, I don't think the H2H is compelling at all. The Net one is TBD. None of us has any idea how the committee is going to use it. Bunch of talking heads on twitter are at least raising the possibility that Gonzaga can drop to 2 line depending what happens to other teams. I don't think they are a 100% lock for a #1 at this stage. Still likely, but not 100% lock.

duketaylor
03-12-2019, 10:05 PM
So, it's possible the ACC could hold the top 3 spots in the poll(s) come Monday. If UK loses , then I could see, Duke, then UVA, then unc, unless UT beats UK to win the SEC. Assuming Duke beats both unc and UVA this weekend.

uh_no
03-12-2019, 10:06 PM
Obviously. Of the 2 reasons you have cited for why Gonzaga is clearly ahead of Duke right now, I don't think the H2H is compelling at all. The Net one is TBD. None of us has any idea how the committee is going to use it. Bunch of talking heads on twitter are at least raising the possibility that Gonzaga can drop to 2 line depending what happens to other teams. I don't think they are a 100% lock for a #1 at this stage. Still likely, but not 100% lock.

the original question was how one could justify gonzaga ahead of duke. H2H is one such way the committee could justify it.

freshmanjs
03-12-2019, 10:10 PM
the original question was how one could justify gonzaga ahead of duke. H2H is one such way the committee could justify it.

Yes, I'm not arguing with you about the possible justification. I am arguing that I don't think Gonzaga is a 100% lock.

Let's say Duke wins the ACC tournament, beating UNC and UVA; Kentucky also wins the SEC tournament. To me, those 3 teams would be clearly ahead of Gonzaga. Especially so for Duke, since the post-Zion injury Duke would have played better than while he was out. Then it would be a comparison of Gonzaga to UNC (where the H2H favors UNC, by the way). That's not an obvious call.

duke2x
03-12-2019, 11:37 PM
Yes, I'm not arguing with you about the possible justification. I am arguing that I don't think Gonzaga is a 100% lock.

Let's say Duke wins the ACC tournament, beating UNC and UVA; Kentucky also wins the SEC tournament. To me, those 3 teams would be clearly ahead of Gonzaga. Especially so for Duke, since the post-Zion injury Duke would have played better than while he was out. Then it would be a comparison of Gonzaga to UNC (where the H2H favors UNC, by the way). That's not an obvious call.

It's possible, but don't overweight one game too much (unless it's a Duke L). Under those conditions, it should be Duke, UVA, KY, and Gonzaga from east to west. 6 loss UNC doesn't have a stronger resume than 3 loss Gonzaga in my view, and I'm not sure they send UNC out west two years in a row.

It will all be over by Friday.

budwom
03-13-2019, 07:28 AM
If UMBC wins tonight and again tomorrow, does the committee set up a rematch with Virginia?

UMBC plays at Vermont on Saturday at 11 a.m. for the tourney spot...Vermont led them last year in the finals all the way until they lost focus in the final few minutes....should be a decent game,

Dukehk
03-13-2019, 07:40 AM
You guys are probably right, but not sure if the facts merit the absolute lock status. Why would a 3 loss Gonzaga team be ahead of a 5 loss Duke team as of now? Duke has a much tougher schedule, much higher quality wins, and the injury factor.

I don't think they are as much of a lock as everyone thinks. They literally have only one good win on their resume, albeit against us. Their other two chances to prove themselves against ranked teams ended up in losses. Now add to that a loss against a VERY bubble team in St Mary's..if the committee looked at it objectively they should be a 2 seed. Or maybe the LAST one seed at best.

If you look back to 2015 season, the zags were our #2 seed even with a 35-2 record! Their losses came to a no.3 zona squad and byu in their last regular season game.

Granted, this years squad comes with alot more hype, but the overall resume does not look good for them. Looking at it objectively, they really should be a 2 seed now.

PackMan97
03-13-2019, 07:43 AM
Now add to that a loss against a VERY bubble team in St Mary's..

Unless the rules have changed, St. Mary's is 100% in. There is no bubble about them.

Dukehk
03-13-2019, 07:46 AM
Unless the rules have changed, St. Mary's is 100% in. There is no bubble about them.

Bubble team prior to winning their conference tourney of course.

Thats a frigging 11 loss squad in a weak conference. Not to mention one that got beat down by 40+ points in the first matchup with the zags.

Its a terrible loss.

DavidBenAkiva
03-13-2019, 08:05 AM
The Gonzaga loss to Saint Mary's is staggering. They beat the Gaels by 14 on the road about 10 days ago. It's a staggering fall. That puts Gonzaga at 4-3 in Quadrant 1 games. Duke has a seriously stronger resume at this moment with wins over Virginia x 2, Kentucky, and Texas Tech. I really hate the idea of Duke being a 1 Seed out west with Gonzaga as the 2 Seed.

The situation is still the same for Duke: Win on Friday night and guarantee a 1 Seed.

What I think this does is open the door for Duke to finish the regular season as the AP #1 team and overall #1 team in the tournament. In fact, I think the winner of the ACC Tournament is going to get that designation unless a crazy upset happens.

uh_no
03-13-2019, 08:21 AM
The Gonzaga loss to Saint Mary's is staggering. They beat the Gaels by 14 on the road about 10 days ago. It's a staggering fall. That puts Gonzaga at 4-3 in Quadrant 1 games. Duke has a seriously stronger resume at this moment with wins over Virginia x 2, Kentucky, and Texas Tech. I really hate the idea of Duke being a 1 Seed out west with Gonzaga as the 2 Seed.

The situation is still the same for Duke: Win on Friday night and guarantee a 1 Seed.

What I think this does is open the door for Duke to finish the regular season as the AP #1 team and overall #1 team in the tournament. In fact, I think the winner of the ACC Tournament is going to get that designation unless a crazy upset happens.

Given how Gonzaga seems to actually not be good against top teams (aside from the early season duke win, the gaels are their best wins....), i would be completely fine being matched up with them. I also find the "duke doesn't play well out west" mantra over-used. We have poor showings in lots of locations....and there is the hidden variable of....duke teams that are sent out west are on average, not as good as duke teams that get to stay east.

Enough east coast teams have succeeded out of the west region for me to have no reason that with a good team, we could too.

Acymetric
03-13-2019, 08:22 AM
I don't think they are as much of a lock as everyone thinks. They literally have only one good win on their resume, albeit against us. Their other two chances to prove themselves against ranked teams ended up in losses. Now add to that a loss against a VERY bubble team in St Mary's..if the committee looked at it objectively they should be a 2 seed. Or maybe the LAST one seed at best.

If you look back to 2015 season, the zags were our #2 seed even with a 35-2 record! Their losses came to a no.3 zona squad and byu in their last regular season game.

Granted, this years squad comes with alot more hype, but the overall resume does not look good for them. Looking at it objectively, they really should be a 2 seed now.

I think the #2 team in both NET and Kenpom is probably safely a #1 seed. Most likely the worst they can finish after the rest of the tournaments finish up is #3 in both, where they still most likely get a 1 seed (and falling to #3 isn't a given, they might well still be #2 on Sunday).

Troublemaker
03-13-2019, 08:41 AM
Given how Gonzaga seems to actually not be good against top teams (aside from the early season duke win, the gaels are their best wins...), i would be completely fine being matched up with them. I also find the "duke doesn't play well out west" mantra over-used. We have poor showings in lots of locations...and there is the hidden variable of...duke teams that are sent out west are on average, not as good as duke teams that get to stay east.

Enough east coast teams have succeeded out of the west region for me to have no reason that with a good team, we could too.

Well, if Duke heads out West, something bad happened in the ACC tourney most likely, and I don't see why we would feel confident then.

Also, Gonzaga's sample against good teams is as small as the Duke's sample out West, so I'm not sure I would ignore one in favor of the other. You're a big kenpom advocate and I don't see why you would ditch him after one loss. For me, I wouldn't like being matched up with the kenpom #2 team out West in their home region.

Steven43
03-13-2019, 08:48 AM
I think the #2 team in both NET and Kenpom is probably safely a #1 seed. Most likely the worst they can finish after the rest of the tournaments finish up is #3 in both, where they still most likely get a 1 seed (and falling to #3 isn't a given, they might well still be #2 on Sunday).
Well then this would seem to undermine the credibility of both the NET and Kenpom.

Troublemaker
03-13-2019, 08:57 AM
I think the #2 team in both NET and Kenpom is probably safely a #1 seed. Most likely the worst they can finish after the rest of the tournaments finish up is #3 in both, where they still most likely get a 1 seed (and falling to #3 isn't a given, they might well still be #2 on Sunday).

I don't think the committee is going to use NET (or kenpom) that bluntly, but I do think they WILL use the quadrants pretty bluntly, and Gonzaga is only 4-3 in Q1 now.

The Zags are probably in trouble if both Kentucky and MSU win their conference tournaments. Then the 1-seeds will be those two, UVA, and one of Duke/UNC, imo.

I think the Zags get a 1-seed because most likely, UK and MSU won't both win their conference tourneys. That's different from calling Gonzaga safe as a 1-seed, though.


Well then this would seem to undermine the credibility of both the NET and Kenpom.

Why? It would perhaps undermine the credibility of those interpreting the data, not the data.

jv001
03-13-2019, 09:06 AM
Interesting K-pom has St Marys at #29 ahead of: Marquette #30, NC State #32 and Syracuse #39.

T-Rank has St. Marys at #33 ahead of: Villanova #34, Marquette #36 and NC State at #37.

They seem to be better than I thought going into the Zags game.

GoDuke!

House P
03-13-2019, 10:13 AM
I don't think the committee is going to use NET (or kenpom) that bluntly, but I do think they WILL use the quadrants pretty bluntly, and Gonzaga is only 4-3 in Q1 now.

The Zags are probably in trouble if both Kentucky and MSU win their conference tournaments. Then the 1-seeds will be those two, UVA, and one of Duke/UNC, imo.

I think the Zags get a 1-seed because most likely, UK and MSU won't both win their conference tourneys. That's different from calling Gonzaga safe as a 1-seed, though.


If the committee ends up using quadrants bluntly, Gonzaga could be in a bit of trouble. As you point out, Gonzaga "only" 4-3 vs Q1 (and 6-0 vs Q2).

For context, most people scoff at the idea of giving Houston a 1 seed. However, if Houston ends up winning the AAC tournament, they are likely to finish 7-2 vs Q1 and 10-0 vs Q2. Sure, Gonzaga's win vs Duke counts for something, but should 4-3 vs Q1 and 6-0 vs Q2 really be considered "safe 1 seed" when 7-2 vs Q1 and 10-0 vs Q2 isn't generally in the conversation for a 1 seed?*

Heck, almost nobody is talking about Texas Tech as a potential 1 seed. However, if Texas Tech wins the B12 tourney, they are likely to finish 9-5 vs Q1 and 10-0 vs Q2. Is 9-5 better than 4-3? I don't know, but we may find out what the committee thinks.



*Just to be clear, I don't think Houston deserves a 1 seed. Houston's Q1 record is very misleading because they haven't played any top 25 NET teams (Gonzaga has played 3 top 7 NET teams, all away from home). I am mostly just pointing out the hazards of using quadrants too bluntly, just in case anyone from the committee is reading DBR :)

uh_no
03-13-2019, 10:21 AM
Well, if Duke heads out West, something bad happened in the ACC tourney most likely, and I don't see why we would feel confident then.

Also, Gonzaga's sample against good teams is as small as the Duke's sample out West, so I'm not sure I would ignore one in favor of the other. You're a big kenpom advocate and I don't see why you would ditch him after one loss. For me, I wouldn't like being matched up with the kenpom #2 team out West in their home region.

While KP doesn't list confidence intervals on individual teams, such an interval would shrink the more data we have between a given team and similarly ranked teams. KP readily accepts this, which is why the weighting of a game is diminished the further teams are apart in efficiency. In the case of most teams, there are enough games against similar teams that those other games can be properly "demoted" (?) in importance. In the case of gonzaga, we have only 3 data points, all of which came from months ago (KP also deweights games with time).


So what we're left with is a gonzaga team for which a HUGE amount of their rating is comprised of data that is already accepted to be significantly less reliable.....which would make any error bars on their ranking enormous.

House P
03-13-2019, 06:29 PM
One of the challenges of comparing potential 1 seeds is that the level of competition they face varies greatly. We all know that Duke played a more difficult schedule than Gonzaga and Houston, but how can you quantify this? Is 30-3 vs Gonzaga's schedule more of an accomplishment than 25-6 vs Duke's? Within the analytics community there is growing interest in using "Wins Above Bubble" as a metric to evaluate a team's win/loss resume with respect to its schedule. In short, Wins Above Bubble is the difference in the actual wins for a team vs the number of wins an average bubble team would be expected to have when facing the team's schedule.

For example, based on KemPom ratings, the average bubble team (AdjEM = 15) would be expected to win 20.1 games against NC State's schedule to date. NC State has won 22 games, therefore, NC State is currently sitting at 1.9 Wins Above Bubble. On the other hand, the average bubble team would be expected to win 16.6 games against Indiana's schedule. IU has won 17 games, so IU currently has 0.4 Wins Above Bubble. So NC State is currently ahead of IU in terms of Wins Above Bubble.

What does this have to do with 1 seeds? Well, you can rank potential 1 seeds by Wins Above Bubble. A full list of all 353 NCAA teams by wins above bubble is available here. (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qmdUR_iMWIUzMBQvMwGBP-EV_64f59kaGUOVUAiKO60/edit#gid=0)

However, the average strength of a bubble team probably isn't the best perspective to judge potential one seeds. I won't go into detail, but using Wins Above Bubble to rank potential 1 seeds may give too much credit for winning games vs teams against teams ranked 100-200. Winning a Q3 game is a modest accomplishment for a bubble team, but should be considered a "gimme" for a 1 seed.

One alternative is to look at the schedule of potential 1 seeds from the perspective of the "average" top 5 team instead of the average bubble team. Applying this metric to the 12 teams currently listed as 1-3 seeds on BracketMartix, you get the following in terms of Wins Above Top 5 (or WA5 for short).





Team
Expected Wins
Expected Losses
Actual Wins
Actual Losses
Wins Above Top 5
WA5 Rank


Virginia
24.93
5.07
28
2
3.07
1


Duke
25.05
5.95
26
5
0.95
2


North Carolina
25.33
5.67
26
5
0.67
3


Tennessee
26.76
4.24
27
4
0.24
4


Gonzaga
29.93
3.07
30
3
0.07
5


Houston
28.98
2.02
29
2
0.02
6


Michigan
26.10
4.90
26
5
-0.10
7


Kentucky
26.16
4.84
26
5
-0.16
8


Michigan St
25.71
5.29
25
6
-0.71
9


Texas Tech
26.85
4.15
26
5
-0.85
10


LSU
27.00
4.00
26
5
-1.00
11


Purdue
25.44
5.56
23
8
-2.44
12




Some interesting notes

- UVA is the clear leader in "Wins Above Top 5". Even if Duke wins the ACC Tournament, UVA is likely to remain the leader in Wins Above Top 5. Of course, in that scenario, I would still expect Duke to get the overall #1 seed because a) they would be either 2-0 or 3-0 vs UVA, and b) I don't think the committee is looking at Wins Above Top 5.

- Gonzaga took a real hit in terms Wins Above Top 5 after their loss to St. Mary's. A 31-2 Gonzaga team would be second in Wins Above Top 5. However, at 30-3 Gonzaga is currently 5th, barely ahead of Houston and will likely fall behind Mich or Mich St if either wins the Big 10 tourney.

- Wins Above Top 5 doesn't attempt to predict future games. Rather, it attempts to reward teams for the strength of a their win/loss resume based on past games. There is a very interesting philosophical discussion to be had about whether the tournament should be seeded based on descriptive "resume metrics" which focus on wins and losses and schedule strength, or "predictive metrics" (like KenPom or T-Rank) which mostly care about how strong a team is without really caring how many games a team has actually won. For example, if KenPom calculated ratings for 1995, Duke might well have been ranked in the top 30-40, but was Duke's 13-18 win/loss resume deserving of a tourney bid.

ice-9
03-14-2019, 06:07 AM
Personally, I'd sort of like to avoid being sent to the South and bracketed with Kentucky to play in Louisville -- in a game where it would make no difference if we were the 1 seed and them the 2 or the other way around.

What's the alternative though? Being the #2 seed out West to face Gonzaga?

We won't be the #2 to UVA or UNC.

It's lose-lose. We are likely getting an away game in that Elite Eight game.

So from that perspective I'd rather get the 1 seed and get a little bit more probability to win.

subzero02
03-14-2019, 06:37 AM
Bubble team prior to winning their conference tourney of course.

Thats a frigging 11 loss squad in a weak conference. Not to mention one that got beat down by 40+ points in the first matchup with the zags.

Its a terrible loss.

On February 9th Gonzaga destroyed St. Mary's 94-46, more than doubling the Gaels' point total. It truly is remarkable that St. Mary's gave up 90 points to Gonzaga in February and just over a month later they they held the bulldogs to 47 points. Gonzaga's margin of victory in the first meeting exceeded their point total in the 3rd meeting.

-48... -14... +13... if they meet a 4th time maybe st. Mary's will win by 33 ;-).

House P
03-15-2019, 10:06 AM
I do think it matters whether we're a 1-seed or a 2-seed. Besides that fact that 1-seeds generally get weaker competition, by design, the thought of being the 2 in the South with UK as the one is a pretty vile possibility, IMO.

You make a good point about 1 seeds generally getting an easier path than 2 seeds. However, I am not sure that this would necessarily be the case for Duke in 2019. The most significant benefit of being a 1 vs 2 seed is probably the fact that a 2 seed has a chance of being placed in the same region as dominate 1 seed. For example, a 1 seed in 2013 would have given Duke a better shot at the Final 4 by avoiding Louisville's region. If you believe KenPom and T-Rank, UVA is probably the only "dominant 1 seed" this year, and Duke can't be the 2 seed in UVA's bracket.

Duke is probably going to end up in the same region as a Gonzaga, Michigan, Michigan St, UK, or Tennessee. These teams are all in KenPomís top 8, so it probably doesn't matter a whole lot if Duke is the 1 seed in the region and the other team is the 2 seed, or vice versa. If Duke gets matched with one of these teams, the only meaningful difference in the path to the Final 4 is probably in the Sweet 16, where the 2 seed likely faces a 3 or 6 seed and the 1 seed likely faces a 4 or 5 seed.

Historically, there hasn't been much difference between facing a 3/6 seed vs a 4/5 seed. If you look at the average KenPom ratings of past 3 - 6 seeds, the point spread you would expect vs a healthy Duke team (AdjEM ~34).




Seed
Expected Point Spread vs Duke
Probability of Duke Victory


3
~8.5 pts
78%


4
~9 pts
79%


5
~10 pts
82%


6
~11 pts
85%




That being said, no team is going to face an "average bracket" in 2019. The real difference in Duke's path as a 1 vs 2 seed will mostly depend on who the committee actually selects as the 3-5 seeds in Duke's bracket. In a bracket with a strong 3 seed (like Michigan), it is almost certainly better to be a 1 seed. However, in a region with a relatively relatively weak 3 seed (like LSU or Houston) and/or relatively strong 4/5 seed (like Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, Purdue or Wisconsin), it probably makes very little difference if the 1 and 2 seeds are swapped.


As a Duke fan, the biggest reason to pull for Duke getting a 1 seed is that it probably means that Duke beat UNC tonight!

duke2x
03-15-2019, 10:14 AM
Just FYI as we talk about seeding: Ticketmaster is having a "no fee" sale today only for unsold NCAA tickets (which means 90% off :rolleyes:). The sites within driving distance of Raleigh that could be relevant are Columbia, Jacksonville, and Louisville. We really did a number on KY if they didn't sell out Louisville when those tickets went on sale last November.

One of the undercurrents to tonight's game is where we play the first 2 rounds and who else is there. The #1 overall seed is coming from the ACC, Duke or UVA, and I don't see UVA volunteering to take Columbus. As I've noted before, I could see Duke volunteering to take Hartford, but I think Coach K is really going to want the F/Sun slot in Columbia regardless of the other team.

BigZ
03-15-2019, 03:25 PM
The way I see it

Duke wins vs UNC and wins vs UVA or FSU then Duke is number 1 overall
Duke wins vs UNC and loses to UVA or FSU Duke 1 seed w UVA overall 1
Duke loses to UNC then Duke is a 2 seed

crimsondevil
03-15-2019, 03:41 PM
Just FYI as we talk about seeding: Ticketmaster is having a "no fee" sale today only for unsold NCAA tickets (which means 90% off :rolleyes:). The sites within driving distance of Raleigh that could be relevant are Columbia, Jacksonville, and Louisville. We really did a number on KY if they didn't sell out Louisville when those tickets went on sale last November.

One of the undercurrents to tonight's game is where we play the first 2 rounds and who else is there. The #1 overall seed is coming from the ACC, Duke or UVA, and I don't see UVA volunteering to take Columbus. As I've noted before, I could see Duke volunteering to take Hartford, but I think Coach K is really going to want the F/Sun slot in Columbia regardless of the other team.

Columbus and Columbia are fairly similar distances from Charlottesville (Columbus is closer as the crow flies but further by road). Is there a reason UVA would prefer one over the other?

ns7
03-15-2019, 04:51 PM
Columbus and Columbia are fairly similar distances from Charlottesville (Columbus is closer as the crow flies but further by road). Is there a reason UVA would prefer one over the other?

Would be interesting to see where UVA alums / fans are distributed. I bet there are more in the vicinity of Columbia than Columbus.

El_Diablo
03-15-2019, 05:34 PM
Would be interesting to see where UVA alums / fans are distributed. I bet there are more in the vicinity of Columbia than Columbus.

This map gives a rough approximation of UVA alumni concentration (click on US to see breakdown by state):

https://www.setlist.fm/stats/concert-map/dave-matthews-band-43d6e713.html

duke2x
03-15-2019, 07:12 PM
Columbus and Columbia are fairly similar distances from Charlottesville (Columbus is closer as the crow flies but further by road). Is there a reason UVA would prefer one over the other?

Pittsburgh was closer to Charlottesville than Charlotte last year as well. If UVA gets to choose as overall #1, they will choose Columbia because it's a lot more accessible to their primary alumni base (DC). Only one other team has a case for overall #1, and it's not UNC.

DavidBenAkiva
03-15-2019, 10:47 PM
Duke is a #1 seed, end of story. If they win tomorrow against FSU, it will be in the East Region. It might not matter, to be honest.

UVA #1 South
Kentucky or Tennessee #1 in the Midwest with UNC
Gonzaga #1 in the West

Furniture
03-15-2019, 10:53 PM
Lunardi just said Duke is a No.1 with Zion in their team. It now depends what Kentucky does to see if UNC gets the third ACC No.1.

hallcity
03-15-2019, 11:00 PM
Weíre a number 1 but is the East Regional off the table? Did U.Va have that already wrapped up?

BigZ
03-15-2019, 11:00 PM
Is Gonzaga gonna get a one just bc they are the only good team west of Louisiana?

Bluedog
03-15-2019, 11:02 PM
Lunardi just said Duke is a No.1 with Zion in their team. It now depends what Kentucky does to see if UNC gets the third ACC No.1.

I think the big thing with this is assuming UNC is 4 through 7 on the seed list, they basically are guaranteed to be in the same bracket as UK (possibly TN) because can't be with UVa or us...which I like because I take both of them going to the final four. (Of course, Lunardi isn't all knowing but I agree with him.) But downside is we could get TN in Louisville if we're fortunate to make it that far. Which would be better than KY there though.

jhmoss1812
03-15-2019, 11:04 PM
Weíre a number 1 but is the East Regional off the table? Did U.Va have that already wrapped up?

I think you guys get the East with a win tomorrow. You may even get it with a loss. H2H has to matter.

I think UVA gets the South (if UK doesn't win SECT) or Midwest (if UK does win the SECT).

DavidBenAkiva
03-15-2019, 11:06 PM
Weíre a number 1 but is the East Regional off the table? Did U.Va have that already wrapped up?

I think it will go to Duke. Beat UVA twice during the season and have similar resumes.

UVA's most impressive wins are
- UNC, VA Tech, Wisconsin

Duke's most impressive wins are:
- Virginia x 2, UNC (with 2 Ls), Kentucky, Texas Tech

UVA doesn't have a bad loss on their resume, but they don't have the top-end wins Duke does. A win against Florida State and the deal is sealed. If Duke loses tomorrow, I am not as certain.

CDu
03-15-2019, 11:07 PM
I think you guys get the East with a win tomorrow. You may even get it with a loss. H2H has to matter.

I think UVA gets the South (if UK doesn't win SECT) or Midwest (if UK does win the SECT).

I canít imagine you guys get sent to the Midwest.

duke2x
03-15-2019, 11:07 PM
Weíre a number 1 but is the East Regional off the table? Did U.Va have that already wrapped up?

No. The Committee said they would watch Duke with Zion to see what happened.

We take the East with a win tomorrow and are the #1 overall. We keep our current spot (#1 MW) with a loss. We did not have to beat UVA again to take it from them.

jhmoss1812
03-15-2019, 11:10 PM
I canít imagine you guys get sent to the Midwest.

I don't see UK missing out on 1 seed in the South if they win the SECT though. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

crimsondevil
03-15-2019, 11:10 PM
Pittsburgh was closer to Charlottesville than Charlotte last year as well. If UVA gets to choose as overall #1, they will choose Columbia because it's a lot more accessible to their primary alumni base (DC). Only one other team has a case for overall #1, and it's not UNC.

No, Columbus is closer to DC than Columbia also. You seem to think Ohio is further away from VA than it is. Look, UVA might choose Columbia, who knows - but the travel time argument is not really valid.

In any case, I have to think we're now extremely likely to be in Columbia for the first weekend. Can we steal DC away from UVA for the regional by winning tomorrow? (edit: that seems to be the consensus here. I think UVA is likely to get South over Kentucky in that scenario though).

simplyluvin
03-15-2019, 11:11 PM
One interesting scenario...Michigan State may get a 1 if they win the Big 10 AND neither of Tennessee and UK win the SEC. the committee may take into consideration that MSU has been hot and now finally healthy. Just a thought.

CDu
03-15-2019, 11:11 PM
I don't see UK missing out on 1 seed in the South if they win the SECT though. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Their resume isnít as good as yours, even if they win the SEC.

BigZ
03-15-2019, 11:12 PM
Iíd go

East: Duke Michigan
South: Virginia Tenn
MidWest: Kentucky MichSt
West: UNC Gonzaga

Troublemaker
03-15-2019, 11:14 PM
I don't see UK missing out on 1 seed in the South if they win the SECT though. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

UVA would be a higher 1-seed than UK, though, imo.

Interestingly, even though you'd be farther away, I think I'd rather be in the Midwest instead of in the South with either Tenn / UK, anyway. Being a higher 1-seed than the SEC winner might cause you pain.

Of course, it is Duke in that situation if we lose tomorrow (which is quite possible).

duke2x
03-15-2019, 11:15 PM
No, Columbus is closer to DC than Columbia also. You seem to think Ohio is further away from VA than it is. Look, UVA might choose Columbia, who knows - but the travel time argument is not really valid.

In any case, I have to think we're now extremely likely to be in Columbia for the first weekend. Can we steal DC away from UVA for the regional by winning tomorrow?

I grew up in Ohio. :confused: I will agree on Columbia because Coach K really prefers that extra day of rest. I've heard him say that about 5+ times, and it becomes more important with a 3rd ACC game.

jhmoss1812
03-15-2019, 11:20 PM
UVA would be a higher 1-seed than UK, though, imo.

Interestingly, even though you'd be farther away, I think I'd rather be in the Midwest instead of in the South with either Tenn / UK, anyway. Being a higher 1-seed than the SEC winner might cause you pain.

Of course, it is Duke in that situation if we lose tomorrow (which is quite possible).

So we can be paired up with Michigan State in the Midwest? Yeah, no thanks lol.

Utley
03-15-2019, 11:21 PM
I think you convinced me. I had been thinking Columbus less hostile than Columbia but the extra day of rest probably wins

bullettoothtony
03-15-2019, 11:23 PM
I think you guys get the East with a win tomorrow. You may even get it with a loss. H2H has to matter.

I think UVA gets the South (if UK doesn't win SECT) or Midwest (if UK does win the SECT).


I'm actually starting to think we may get the #1 in the East regardless of tomorrow. Taking two from Virginia, not sure how you give it to them over us.

bullettoothtony
03-15-2019, 11:25 PM
Iíd go

East: Duke Michigan
South: Virginia Tenn
MidWest: Kentucky MichSt
West: UNC Gonzaga


I like that, I think that's what it should be. And I do think Carolina deserves the 1 over Gonzaga.

duke2x
03-15-2019, 11:40 PM
I think you convinced me. I had been thinking Columbus less hostile than Columbia but the extra day of rest probably wins

Just to be inconsistent, I don't think Columbus was ever in the cards for Duke this year. If we had lost tonight (shudder), we would have been sent to Jacksonville. It's equidistant, but nobody wants it except FSU. Many teams want Columbus that are pretty high up on the S-curve: KY, MI, MSU with UVA and TN having a preference there to Des Moines.

akg4y
03-16-2019, 02:39 AM
I think it will go to Duke. Beat UVA twice during the season and have similar resumes.

UVA's most impressive wins are
- UNC, VA Tech, Wisconsin

.


UVA also beat FSU by double digits (and were leading by around thirty before the walk ons) at FSU.

proelitedota
03-16-2019, 04:02 AM
UVA lock for 1 seed
Duke lock for 1 seed
One of MSU / Michigan is lock for 1 seed if they win the Big10 tourney.
One of UK / UT is a lock for 1 seed if they win the SEC tourney.

UNC is the next in line for 1 seed. Gonzaga after. Cheats need to pray for at least one of the Big10 / SEC Tourney to not go the remaining favorites.

arnie
03-16-2019, 06:42 AM
I think you convinced me. I had been thinking Columbus less hostile than Columbia but the extra day of rest probably wins

Maybe not this year? The Zion effect in Columbia SC maybe a positive; lots of locals would want Spartanburg Superman to do well.

duke2x
03-16-2019, 06:47 AM
UVA also beat FSU by double digits (and were leading by around thirty before the walk ons) at FSU.

That game was actually @UVA. Duke was the only team that won @FSU this year, and we barely did it.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-16-2019, 07:24 AM
Maybe not this year? The Zion effect in Columbia SC maybe a positive; lots of locals would want Spartanburg Superman to do well.

Columbia, if the Holes are sent elsewhere, (and not playing a SC team) would be pretty good assign for Duke. Frank Martin and K are friends...easy travel for Duke fans. And yeah, the Zion effect for locals who buy tickets.

jv001
03-16-2019, 07:54 AM
That game was actually @UVA. Duke was the only team that won @FSU this year, and we barely did it.

And Duke was the only ACC team to beat Virginia on their home court. Good resume for the good guys. GoDuke!

sagegrouse
03-16-2019, 08:53 AM
I'm actually starting to think we may get the #1 in the East regardless of tomorrow. Taking two from Virginia, not sure how you give it to them over us.

Agree Let's look at the records among Duke, UNC and Virginia --

Duke 3-2
UNC 2-2
UVa 1-2

Other losses:
Duke -- Zags, Syracuse, VPI
UNC -- Texas, Michigan, Kentucky, Louisville
UVa -- [none]

summerwind03
03-16-2019, 08:57 AM
Agree Let's look at the records among Duke, UNC and Virginia --

Duke 3-2
UNC 2-2
UVa 1-2

Other losses:
Duke -- Zags, Syracuse, VPI
UNC -- Texas, Michigan, Kentucky, Louisville
UVa -- [none]

UVa lost to FSU, right?

budwom
03-16-2019, 09:35 AM
UVa lost to FSU, right?

how soon they forget!

CDu
03-16-2019, 09:52 AM
Duke has just 1 loss with a full roster. And that was a 1-possession loss in November in the third game in 3 days, and against a top-5 team.

We have a pretty good resume.

Getting the win last night was crucial. It allows the committee to discount the 3 losses with Zion out. That alone would put us among the discussion for #1 overall. A win today should give the top spot to us.

JasonEvans
03-16-2019, 10:59 AM
I think it is important to look at the stuff the committee is going to look at in the room.




NET
Pom
BPI


Virginia
1
1
1


Gonzaga
2
2
2


Duke
3
3
3


Kentucky
5
8
6


Tennessee
6
7
7


UNC
7
5
5


Michigan St.
8
3
4


Michigan
9
6
8


(note: the only other team in the top 8 in any of these metrics is Houston, who comes in at #4 in the NET, but I don't think they are really all that much of a contender for even a #2 seed)

So, even taking out the fact that Duke's number is deflated buy the six games where we did not have the best player in the country (arguably one of the best players in many, many years in college hoops), it is abundantly clear that there are three mortal locks for #1 seeds. Virginia, Gonzaga, and Duke check all the boxes. Now, when you discount the 6 non-Zion games; when you look at Duke's head-to-head with Virginia; when you factor in Duke advancing further than the Cavs in the ACC tourney; and when you look at Duke's schedule strength compared to UVA (UVA's non-conf was a joke while Duke played the best teams in the country) it becomes clear that Duke is a pretty logical choice for the overall #1 seed. I think the Committee chair would not get any skeptical questions about that but I think he would get some questions about why he put Virginia ahead of Duke if they go that direction. I think the seed order is going to be Duke, then UVA, then Gonzaga (anyone who says Gonzaga is not a lock for a #1 is smoking something)... of course, it is after those three where things become muddled.

Allow me to posit this -- if Duke's non-Zion games are discounted, should we not also somewhat discount Carolina's wins over a lessened Duke team? Carolina's metrics and resume look a tad less impressive if we think the non-Zion Duke is merely a top-15 kinda club versus being one of the top 3 in the nation. Considering the selection committee may be reluctant to give any conference 3 #1 seeds, I think the odds are stacked against UNC getting that fourth #1 seed. It isn't impossible and the Heels should be given credit for playing the single toughest schedule in the nation (and winning a ton against it) but I think the committee would like to find someone else to make the fourth #1.

While there is some buzz about Michigan and MSU, they are pretty low in the NET and I suspect the committee will want to give some weight to their home-grown baby in its first year of existence and the NET likes the SEC teams more than the Big Ten clubs. So, I think the winner of today's Kentucky/Tennessee game will get the fourth #1 seed.

I should add one more thing -- I doubt the final result of the SEC tourney tomorrow will make a difference in all this. If the KY/TN winner falls to the Fla/Aub winner in the SEC finals on Sunday, I don't think it will change the seeding very much at all. There are simply too many changes that must be made to accommodate conference matchups to make it practical to be flipping seeds at the last minute. With the ACC likely getting 8 teams in the dance and the SEC getting 7, moving Carolina and KY/TN around is just too problematic. Similarly, the Big Ten is a nightmare with a championship game that ends at 530pm on Sunday. The committee will largely decide on the seeds of these teams before Sunday afternoon... and I think the 4th #1 will be whoever wins today's KY/TN match.

Here is how I see the #1 and #2 seeds going:

East - Duke, Mich/MSU loser
South - Virginia, KY/TN loser
MW - KY/TN winner, UNC
West - Gonz, Mich/MSU winner

-Jason "it is possible the MW and W #2s flip... the committee may flip a coin to decide where to send UNC and the Mich/MSU winner" Evans

JasonEvans
03-16-2019, 11:53 AM
Side note:

I know the consensus is that Clemson is not making the dance. I am less sure and think it may depend on how much the NCAA wants to rely on the shiny new toy, the NET.

Here are the NET rankings of everyone in the ACC:
Virginia 1, Duke 3, UNC 7, Va Tech 11, FSU 15, Louisville 21, NCSU 34, Clemson 35, Syracuse 43, Miami 93, ND 112, Pitt 121, GaT 124, BC 137, Wake 183

If the NCAA loves the NET, Clemson at #35 is going to be awful hard to keep out (and what about #38 Texas, who are just 16-16... could a .500 team make the dance?)

We may get a hint about Clemson's fate when Houston's seed is announced. The Cougars are somehow #4 in the NET and while I do not expect to find them on the #1 seed line, if they land a #2 it may be a sign that the selection committee is hot for the NET and that would be good for Clemson.

budwom
03-16-2019, 12:32 PM
Bilas absolutely insistent that unc is a one seed, no doubt in his mind, period. We'll see.

CameronBornAndBred
03-16-2019, 12:34 PM
Bilas absolutely insistent that unc is a one seed, no doubt in his mind, period. We'll see.
That means they'll be a 2.

devildeac
03-16-2019, 12:43 PM
Bilas absolutely insistent that unc is a one seed, no doubt in his mind, period. We'll see.

"Often wrong, never in doubt"

jimsumner
03-16-2019, 12:47 PM
How often is the NET updated?

Dukehk
03-16-2019, 12:48 PM
Duke has just 1 loss with a full roster. And that was a 1-possession loss in November in the third game in 3 days, and against a top-5 team.

We have a pretty good resume.

Getting the win last night was crucial. It allows the committee to discount the 3 losses with Zion out. That alone would put us among the discussion for #1 overall. A win today should give the top spot to us.

I hope the committee sees it that way too. I consider us to have lost maybe 1.5 games this year. Itís incredible the amount of injuries we have had.

I believe there was a statistic that said half our games played in the ACC was without a full starting 5.

Just praying that we win tomorrow and get that overall 1 seed. Then bolden comes back to help us in the second weekend assuming we handle our business. Us duke fans have gone through an absolute rollercoaster of emotions this year. We deserve the storybook ending! I would love to see us with a full deck by the time the big dance comes along.

CameronCrazy'11
03-16-2019, 01:02 PM
Here is how I see the #1 and #2 seeds going:

East - Duke, Mich/MSU loser
South - Virginia, KY/TN loser
MW - KY/TN winner, UNC
West - Gonz, Mich/MSU winner

-Jason "it is possible the MW and W #2s flip... the committee may flip a coin to decide where to send UNC and the Mich/MSU winner" Evans

This seems right, except I don't know if they would put Duke and UNC on the same side of the bracket.

JasonEvans
03-16-2019, 03:49 PM
How often is the NET updated?

Earlier in the season I feel like they were doing it weekly, but it has been pretty much daily for a while now. The latest version says "Through Games MAR. 15, 2019" so it would seem to be accurate as of all games played yesterday.

JasonEvans
03-16-2019, 03:52 PM
This seems right, except I don't know if they would put Duke and UNC on the same side of the bracket.

Have they already determined which region will play who in the final four or is that unveiled on selection Sunday? I feel like the committee has said in the past that they really do not think about how teams would theoretically match up in the Final Four. Moving Duke or UNC around to avoid a FFour matchup seems like effort to avoid something that has maybe a 10% chance of happening... probably less.

scottdude8
03-16-2019, 04:05 PM
I think the 2 line might be a bit more complicated than the scenario you outlined Jason, especially with both Michigan and Michigan State absolutely acing the ďeye testĒ right now. Louisville is closer to Ann Arbor and (Iím pretty sure) East Lansing than either DC or Kansas City... so, if they go based solely on distance (which some reports are they have in the past), and Tennessee beats Kentucky and/or that winner loses to Auburn, one of both of the B1G teams could end up as the top 2 seed on the S-curve and thus earn the location preference to the South. But again, it isnít 100% clear how the NCAA determines these things... the only 100% hard rule is they wonít make the 1 and 2 seed in the same region be from the same conference.

I also think it isnít 100% that the B1G is eliminated from a 1 seed with all the upsets weíve seen this week. If, say, Tennessee wins the SEC, their resume suffers by not getting a chance to play LSU. Either B1G champion would likely finish with more Q1 wins than Tennessee. There would also be a strong argument to make against Gonzaga in that scenario. Thereís a LOT still to be determined starting with the end of the SEC semi.

jv001
03-16-2019, 04:10 PM
I think the 2 line might be a bit more complicated than the scenario you outlined Jason, especially with both Michigan and Michigan State absolutely acing the ďeye testĒ right now. Louisville is closer to Ann Arbor and (Iím pretty sure) East Lansing than either DC or Kansas City... so, if they go based solely on distance (which some reports are they have in the past), and Tennessee beats Kentucky and/or that winner loses to Auburn, one of both of the B1G teams could end up as the top 2 seed on the S-curve and thus earn the location preference to the South. But again, it isnít 100% clear how the NCAA determines these things... the only 100% hard rule is they wonít make the 1 and 2 seed in the same region be from the same conference.

I also think it isnít 100% that the B1G is eliminated from a 1 seed with all the upsets weíve seen this week. If, say, Tennessee wins the SEC, their resume suffers by not getting a chance to play LSU. Either B1G champion would likely finish with more Q1 wins than Tennessee. There would also be a strong argument to make against Gonzaga in that scenario. Thereís a LOT still to be determined starting with the end of the SEC semi.

Looking like Tenn. isn't going to be the SEC champion but likely the Mildcats. I don't think it happens but the Zags could drop to a #2 with Duke, Va, Kentucky and the Cheats. GoDuke!

scottdude8
03-16-2019, 04:16 PM
This is the official ďseeding principlesĒ made public by the NCAA: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness

And hereís the key point for 2 seeds:
2. The committee will then place the No. 2 seeds in each region in true seed list order. The committee may relax the principle of keeping teams as close to their area of natural interest for seeding teams on the No. 2 line to avoid, for example, the overall No. 5 seed being sent to the same region as the overall No. 1 seed. The committee will not compromise the principle of keeping teams from the same conference in separate regions.

So, again, thereís no clear cut process, because of course there isnít. But it seems the two biggest things are that they wonít send the top 2 seed to the top 1 seed (who, regardless of whether itís us or Virginia, will be in the East), and then ďlocation preferenceĒ is dictated by the relative ranking of the 2 seeds as long as that doesnít force teams from the same conference into the same bracket.

Man itís a puzzle!

DU82
03-16-2019, 04:19 PM
Have they already determined which region will play who in the final four or is that unveiled on selection Sunday? I feel like the committee has said in the past that they really do not think about how teams would theoretically match up in the Final Four. Moving Duke or UNC around to avoid a FFour matchup seems like effort to avoid something that has maybe a 10% chance of happening... probably less.

It is announced on Sunday when the four number 1 seeds are announced. The regions set up so if all number 1 seeds advance, 1 (top seed overall) plays 4 (the last of the 1 seeds) and 2 plays 3.

scottdude8
03-16-2019, 04:36 PM
Looking like Tenn. isn't going to be the SEC champion but likely the Mildcats. I don't think it happens but the Zags could drop to a #2 with Duke, Va, Kentucky and the Cheats. GoDuke!

This didnít age well, and quickly. What a comeback!

Furniture
03-16-2019, 04:37 PM
Sů. UK lose. Now what?

simplyluvin
03-16-2019, 04:37 PM
Still a lot of possibilities:

I see the only lock for a #1 regardless of what happens is UVA
We win tonight and we are a #1, with likely overall #1 seed (East region).
Tennessee wins the SEC and they are a #1, but possibly a #1 regardless after beating UK 2 out of 3.
I may be way off here, but to me it's a tossup between MSU if they win the Big 10 and Gonzaga. The zags really hurt themselves by not winning their conference title.


UK is a "lock" for a 2 seed. unC also. The remaining 2s are fluid based on the above.

MChambers
03-16-2019, 04:39 PM
This didnít age well, and quickly. What a comeback!

Will the Committee put Tennessee over the winner of MSU/UM? Thatís assuming Tennessee beats Auburn, which is far from certain.

Iíd think the fourth #1 goes to the Big Ten winner.

jipops
03-16-2019, 04:47 PM
Still a lot of possibilities:

I see the only lock for a #1 regardless of what happens is UVA
We win tonight and we are a #1, with likely overall #1 seed (East region).
Tennessee wins the SEC and they are a #1, but possibly a #1 regardless after beating UK 2 out of 3.
I may be way off here, but to me it's a tossup between MSU if they win the Big 10 and Gonzaga. The zags really hurt themselves by not winning their conference title.


UK is a "lock" for a 2 seed. unC also. The remaining 2s are fluid based on the above.

Iíd say unc is a likely 1 seed at this point

DavidBenAkiva
03-16-2019, 04:50 PM
Here is how I see the #1 and #2 seeds going:

East - Duke, Mich/MSU loser
South - Virginia, KY/TN loser
MW - KY/TN winner, UNC
West - Gonz, Mich/MSU winner

-Jason "it is possible the MW and W #2s flip... the committee may flip a coin to decide where to send UNC and the Mich/MSU winner" Evans

Posting this again just after Tennessee defeats Kentucky.

I think this is mostly right, but with a few tweaks:

East: Duke, Michigan/MSU loser
South: Virginia, Kentucky
Midwest: Tennessee, Michigan/MSU winner
West: UNC, Gonzaga

If Duke loses the ACC Tournament Final, swap Duke and UVA regions.

OldPhiKap
03-16-2019, 04:50 PM
FWIW Lunardi has Gonzaga, UVA, UNC and Duke with the one seeds after the Ky loss.

scottdude8
03-16-2019, 04:52 PM
Will the Committee put Tennessee over the winner of MSU/UM? Thatís assuming Tennessee beats Auburn, which is far from certain.

Iíd think the fourth #1 goes to the Big Ten winner.

It'll be interesting to see how the NET updates and influences this. Going into today Tenn was No. 6, Michigan State No. 8 and Michigan No. 9. All will likely rise.

Jay Williams just brought up a key point about Michigan State, which is they have arguably the THREE worst losses of anyone in the No. 1 seed conversation (both home and away against Indiana, and at Illinois). I personally think that should disqualify them, but we've seen in past that the committee values good wins more than bad losses.

Think of this scenario: what if Michigan wins tomorrow and Tennessee loses, making it a clear decision between UNC and Michigan? Michigan would have one less loss than UNC, not to mention a DECISIVE head-to-head victory (Roy Williams: "I suck at coaching", never forget). Picking UNC over the Wolverines in that scenario might turn some heads.

I also think that Gonzaga's No. 1 seed SHOULD be up for grabs, especially if Tennessee or Michigan win tomorrow and look great doing it, but it's an extreme unknown how the committee is going to deal with the Zags (see my article on their conundrum from a few days ago). Regardless I think we're heading into the first Selection Sunday in a while where there will be real uncertainty about who the No. 1 seeds will be, and as many as six teams with a strong argument to make.

InSpades
03-16-2019, 04:52 PM
I still think UNC is in play for a #1 seed no matter what happens. I think you can make a case that the 3 best teams in the country all play in the ACC. I guess it depends how much you discount the 2 UNC wins over Duke due to Zion. But I mean... they were super close to a 3-game sweep over Duke and locking up a #1.

Tennessee has the worst SoS of the top teams outside of Gonzaga. They were #1 solely based on their record and really hadn't played anyone.

UVA and Duke are locks.

UNC, Tennessee, Gonzaga and Michigan/MSU winner are all in play for the last 2 #1s.

Lunardi just pointed out (and I agree w/ him) that the seeding works out really well if you give Gonzaga a #2. With Gonzaga a #1 you end up putting a lesser #1 and a lesser #2 seed out West. If you give Gonzaga a #2 they still end up out West but you put a strong #2 w/ the weakest #1 and the brackets end up more balanced.

rolm
03-16-2019, 04:55 PM
Posting this again just after Tennessee defeats Kentucky.

I think this is mostly right, but with a few tweaks:

East: Duke, Michigan/MSU loser
South: Virginia, Kentucky
Midwest: Tennessee, Michigan/MSU winner
West: UNC, Gonzaga

If Duke loses the ACC Tournament Final, swap Duke and UVA regions.

So you don't see MSU grabbing a 1 seed, if it wins the B1G tournament? I'm still not 100% sure Duke gets a 1 seed without winning tonight. I hope you are right and I'm wrong. Obviously we put those fears to rest with win tonight but it certainly won't be easy against an athletic and tall FSU that plays extremely physical.

DavidBenAkiva
03-16-2019, 04:59 PM
FWIW Lunardi has Gonzaga, UVA, UNC and Duke with the one seeds after the Ky loss.

I don't see this. UNC dropped Gonzaga head-to-head. The only other quality win that Gonzaga has is over Duke while UNC has 2 over Duke and other good wins, including Florida State, Virginia Tech, and others in ACC play.

scottdude8
03-16-2019, 05:01 PM
Lunardi just pointed out (and I agree w/ him) that the seeding works out really well if you give Gonzaga a #2. With Gonzaga a #1 you end up putting a lesser #1 and a lesser #2 seed out West. If you give Gonzaga a #2 they still end up out West but you put a strong #2 w/ the weakest #1 and the brackets end up more balanced.

To that point, the "seeding policies" I linked to early specifically include a caveat that the committee reserves the right to move teams up or down 1 seed line, and potentially 2, in order to create a more balanced bracket. They could easily do that and point to that rule as cover, and honestly I think that's the scenario that is the most equitable anyways. In that UNC looks pretty solid as a No. 1, because I think Tennessee must win to be in that conversation, and I also think that MSU won't be a 1 seed because of the horrible losses I described earlier, so Michigan would have to win tomorrow to be in the conversation as well.

DavidBenAkiva
03-16-2019, 05:05 PM
So you don't see MSU grabbing a 1 seed, if it wins the B1G tournament? I'm still not 100% sure Duke gets a 1 seed without winning tonight. I hope you are right and I'm wrong. Obviously we put those fears to rest with win tonight but it certainly won't be easy against an athletic and tall FSU that plays extremely physical.

I really don't. What's their best win out of conference? They lost to Kansas, lost to Louisville. They had a 3-game losing streak during the season and lost twice to Indiana and at Illinois. I get that they had some really bad injury luck. Their 2 best wins are over Michigan. Those are big wins, but they have 2 Quadrant 2 losses. They just do not have the resume of a 1 seed.

MChambers
03-16-2019, 05:07 PM
So you don't see MSU grabbing a 1 seed, if it wins the B1G tournament? I'm still not 100% sure Duke gets a 1 seed without winning tonight. I hope you are right and I'm wrong. Obviously we put those fears to rest with win tonight but it certainly won't be easy against an athletic and tall FSU that plays extremely physical.

MSU does have the argument that they've been winning without Ward, who is now back.

scottdude8
03-16-2019, 05:08 PM
I really don't. What's their best win out of conference? They lost to Kansas, lost to Louisville. They had a 3-game losing streak during the season and lost twice to Indiana and at Illinois. I get that they had some really bad injury luck. Their 2 best wins are over Michigan. Those are big wins, but they have 2 Quadrant 2 losses. They just do not have the resume of a 1 seed.

Both the Michigan wins also came with arguably our best player, Charles Matthews, either significantly hobbled (game 1) or out (game 2). Not too much unlike Duke-UNC. Tomorrow both teams will have the full compliment of players theyíre likely to have in the tourney, so it (should) have more significance to the committee.

brevity
03-16-2019, 05:08 PM
I think you can make a case that the 3 best teams in the country all play in the ACC.

Yet there's a chance none of those 3 teams will win the ACC Tournament.

The Committee would have no rational justification for giving UVA, Duke, and UNC 1 seeds if FSU wins tonight. It would look really bad on a national level. Not only would they be slighting the SEC and Big Ten, but they would basically be admitting once and for all that they decided on the top seeds last week, and that conference tournaments do not matter.

Since UNC's hold on a 1 seed is the most tenuous, it seems like the most likely way they get one is if Duke wins tonight. Now they know who to root for.

ritz
03-16-2019, 05:09 PM
It always baffles me why Gonzaga is seemingly always in the conversation for a #1. The only ranked team they beat was us and by all accounts we should have won that game. They try to make their schedule more difficult by playing road games vs. other ranked opponents but they end up losing the games (Tenn and UNC). In the past giving Gonzaga the #1 has been a waste.

Assuming we handle our business tonight against FSU, UVA and Duke should get #1s. I feel like I could make a case for UVA, Duke and UNC all getting #1s and each team can say it has a shot at winning the whole thing, but I doubt the committee is that bold to put 3 ACC teams as #1s. The remaining two are definitely toss ups. Michigan State already won the regular season so winning the conference championship as well would make a case although Izzo doesn't seem to care where his team is, they make Final Four runs from anywhere. Tennessee obviously did not win the regular season but the circumstances around LSU's win of the regular season are...bizarre. Kentucky should be squarely on the 2.

Carolina even at the 2 has the ability to win their bracket against anyone that's not us so whomever the 1 seed is (assuming its not them) gets a rough draw.

scottdude8
03-16-2019, 05:09 PM
MSU does have the argument that they've been winning without Ward, who is now back.

Believe it or not a lot of MSU partisans think theyíre better without Ward and with Xavier Tillman in the starting lineup. Heís a superior defensive player.

duke4ever19
03-16-2019, 05:10 PM
Yet there's a chance none of those 3 teams will win the ACC Tournament.

The Committee would have no rational justification for giving UVA, Duke, and UNC 1 seeds if FSU wins tonight. It would look really bad on a national level. Not only would they be slighting the SEC and Big Ten, but they would basically be admitting once and for all that they decided on the top seeds last week, and that conference tournaments do not matter.

Since UNC's hold on a 1 seed is the most tenuous, it seems like the most likely way they get one is if Duke wins tonight. Now they know who to root for.

That would be the case if Jay Bilas had his way. He mentioned it last night too.

rolm
03-16-2019, 05:12 PM
I really don't. What's their best win out of conference? They lost to Kansas, lost to Louisville. They had a 3-game losing streak during the season and lost twice to Indiana and at Illinois. I get that they had some really bad injury luck. Their 2 best wins are over Michigan. Those are big wins, but they have 2 Quadrant 2 losses. They just do not have the resume of a 1 seed.

I mostly agree with you. But for argument sake, if we are using the logic that our loses are discounted due to Zion's absence (and we did lose 3 out of the last 6 regular season games), can't the same argument be made for MSU now that they are healthy(ier) with players returning and playing better? FWIW, I hope the scenario you presented plays out. I would love to see that seeding in those regions. Would love to see us #1 in the East and not have Kentucky in our region.

MChambers
03-16-2019, 05:13 PM
Believe it or not a lot of MSU partisans think theyíre better without Ward and with Xavier Tillman in the starting lineup. Heís a superior defensive player.

That may be true, but they are better with Ward coming off the bench than Kithier.

InSpades
03-16-2019, 05:14 PM
Yet there's a chance none of those 3 teams will win the ACC Tournament.

The Committee would have no rational justification for giving UVA, Duke, and UNC 1 seeds if FSU wins tonight. It would look really bad on a national level. Not only would they be slighting the SEC and Big Ten, but they would basically be admitting once and for all that they decided on the top seeds last week, and that conference tournaments do not matter.

Since UNC's hold on a 1 seed is the most tenuous, it seems like the most likely way they get one is if Duke wins tonight. Now they know who to root for.

Or they would just be admitting that 1 game doesn't define your season (and it shouldn't). So you're saying that UNC shouldn't get a #1 because they lost by 1 point to the best team in college basketball? Duke and UVA are clearly in the top 4 best teams in college basketball no matter how you want to look at it.

HereBeforeCoachK
03-16-2019, 05:23 PM
Bilas absolutely insistent that unc is a one seed, no doubt in his mind, period. We'll see.

Bilas' attraction and affections for UNC are borderline sexual in nature.......it seems.....it's CREEPY.

richardjackson199
03-16-2019, 05:26 PM
Bilas' attraction and affections for UNC are borderline sexual in nature....it seems....it's CREEPY.

It really helped preserve my sanity last night to watch the Duke-Cheats game on Raycom so that I could avoid Bilas. Raycom's announcers weren't very good. But they weren't infuriatingly gushing about Cheat-U like Bilas. I chose wisely.

Acymetric
03-16-2019, 05:32 PM
People thinking Gonzaga won't be a 1 seed are crazy. I can understand why you don't think they should be, but they are almost certainly going to be. They are ranked too high in pretty much every metric. Nothing can happen that would knock them off at this point.

UVA also has one locked up. That leaves Duke, xnc, MSU, and Tenn competing for the other two 1 seeds. Duke is honestly probably a lock for a 1 seed no matter what after Zion returned and dominated, but let's win tonight just to be safe.

Which means Tennessee, Michigan State, and xnc are battling for the final 1 seed.

Scenario 1 - Tennessee wins: Tenn gets the 1 seed no matter what MSU does

Scenario 2 - Tennessee loses, Michigan State wins: Michigan State gets it over xnc by the slimmest of margins, Tennessee is probably closer than everyone thinks even with the loss but is just a bit behind the other two. It is possible that xnc gets the 1 seed in this scenario, but I see MSU as more likely.

Scenario 3 - MSU and Tennessee lose tomorrow: xnc gets the fourth 1 seed which to make it 3 ACC teams on the 1 line.

duke2x
03-16-2019, 05:33 PM
Or they would just be admitting that 1 game doesn't define your season (and it shouldn't). So you're saying that UNC shouldn't get a #1 because they lost by 1 point to the best team in college basketball? Duke and UVA are clearly in the top 4 best teams in college basketball no matter how you want to look at it.

This is where I'm leaning. They supposedly don't make the bracket up until about 3-4 PM tomorrow, which means they won't know the result of the MI-MSU game. My take as of now that allows you to hedge:

(E) UVA, MI
(S/MW) Duke, MSU
(MW/S) UNC, TN (either order)
(W) Gonzaga, KY (either order)

You flip Duke/UVA with a win tonight and maybe the MI schools based on tomorrow's outcome. I don't want to see MI's defense on short rest.

sagegrouse
03-16-2019, 05:35 PM
Or they would just be admitting that 1 game doesn't define your season (and it shouldn't). So you're saying that UNC shouldn't get a #1 because they lost by 1 point to the best team in college basketball? Duke and UVA are clearly in the top 4 best teams in college basketball no matter how you want to look at it.

As one who has volubly said that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee doesn't really have a clue how to compare teams between conferences, I also think the members agree with this position. So then -- why suffer the criticism from those left out by putting three teams from one conference on the #1 line?

proelitedota
03-16-2019, 05:42 PM
People thinking Gonzaga won't be a 1 seed are crazy. I can understand why you don't think they should be, but they are almost certainly going to be. They are ranked too high in pretty much every metric. Nothing can happen that would knock them off at this point.

UVA also has one locked up. That leaves Duke, xnc, MSU, and Tenn competing for the other two 1 seeds. Duke is honestly probably a lock for a 1 seed no matter what after Ion returned and dominated, but let's win tonight just to be safe.

Which means Tennessee, Michigan State, and xnc are battling for the final 1 seed.

Scenario 1 - Tennessee wins: Tenn gets the 1 seed no matter what MSU does

Scenario 2 - Tennessee loses, Michigan State wins: Michigan State gets it over xnc by the slimmest of margins, Tennessee is probably closer than everyone thinks even with the loss but is just a bit behind the other two. It is possible that xnc gets the 1 seed in this scenario, but I see MSU as more likely.

Scenario 3 - MSU and Tennessee lose tomorrow: xnc gets the fourth 1 seed which to make it 3 ACC teams on the 1 line.

Why's Michigan not on the 1 seed line if they win against MSU? I think the winner of the B10 tourney gets a 1 seed.

UT gets a 1 seed if they win tomorrow.

If UT loses then the 1 seed is a going to be decided between Zags and UNC. It's going to be pretty close.

UNC lucked by not having to play UK though in Louisville.

kAzE
03-16-2019, 05:42 PM
UT gets a 1 seed if they win tomorrow.

It's possible, but I don't think they'll get it. I think the B10's champion gets the last #1 seed, regardless of what Tennessee does. I like both Michigan and MSU's resumes slightly more than Tennessee. Only one of those teams can get a #1 seed, because I think UVA, Gonzaga, and probably Duke are locks.

On the subject of Duke, with Kentucky going down, and us beating the Cheaters last night, it seems likely that we have earned a #1 seed regardless of the outcome of today's game vs Florida State. But hopefully, we will leave no doubt to our top seed status and take home the ACC championship.

GO DUKE!!

Eakane
03-16-2019, 06:09 PM
We're a one seed now. A win tonight makes us the #1 one. No doubt. But will a loss change that? Consider, Gonzaga, UVa, UNC and (now) Kentucky have all lost this week. So nobody passes us, and arguably we slide past UVa and the Zags with our superior resume. We'll know soon!

scottdude8
03-16-2019, 06:13 PM
It's possible, but I don't think they'll get it. I think the B10's champion gets the last #1 seed, regardless of what Tennessee does. I like both Michigan and MSU's resumes slightly more than Tennessee. Only one of those teams can get a #1 seed, because I think UVA, Gonzaga, and probably Duke are locks.

On the subject of Duke, with Kentucky going down, and us beating the Cheaters last night, it seems likely that we have earned a #1 seed regardless of the outcome of today's game vs Florida State. But hopefully, we will leave no doubt to our top seed status and take home the ACC championship.

GO DUKE!!

I'm 75% with you. I think with a Tennessee win and a MSU win, Tenn gets the edge because of MSU's losses to Indiana and Illinois being such a blemish on their resume (also remember two of those three losses did come with Ward). If it's Michigan and Tennessee, Michigan would have an advantage in essentially every "team sheet" category with the exception of having one more loss, not to mention a win over MSU is a bigger boost than a win over Auburn. I think the "chaos" scenario that UNC needs is Tennessee losing and an MSU win.

jv001
03-16-2019, 06:26 PM
My predictions before tonight's games:

EAST= DUKE--------------MICH.
SOUTH= VIRGINIA--------KY
MW= TENNESSEE---------MSU
WEST= CHEATS-----------ZAGS

With the Cheats getting a #1, Bilas is very happy.

GoDuke!

Danke Shane
03-16-2019, 06:34 PM
Did UK's loss today do anything to prevent them from possibly being the #2 seed in the South? Will they be too far down the pecking order of 2's to get the preferential location of a Louisville regional?

jv001
03-16-2019, 06:35 PM
Did UK's loss today do anything to prevent them from possibly being the #2 seed in the South? Will they be too far down the pecking order of 2's to get the preferential location of a Louisville regional?

I don't think so as most had them as a #1. GoDuke!

scottdude8
03-16-2019, 06:53 PM
I don't think so as most had them as a #1. GoDuke!

I'd have to disagree. As I mentioned earlier, Louisville is technically the closest site to both the Michigan schools, so if either ends up higher on the 2-seed list (a distinct possibility if, say, Michigan wins and earns a 1-seed, leaving MSU as a high 2 seed) by the NCAA's guidelines they'd get the location preference over Kentucky.

ChrisP
03-16-2019, 09:51 PM
Gotta believe Duke is overall #1. If not, I'll go ahead and say it: We wuz robbed!

Seriously, UVA is great buuut, didn't make ACC finals AND lost 2x to us. Gonzaga? Please! That WCC is nothing compared to our conference.

jhmoss1812
03-16-2019, 09:58 PM
Gotta believe Duke is overall #1. If not, I'll go ahead and say it: We wuz robbed!

Seriously, UVA is great buuut, didn't make ACC finals AND lost 2x to us. Gonzaga? Please! That WCC is nothing compared to our conference.

I think you're right. Duke should be the 1 overall and in the East. I think you'll probably get the loser of the Michigan/MSU as your 2. UVA will be 1 in the South and get the winner of MSU/Michigan. That's my best guess.

simplyluvin
03-16-2019, 09:59 PM
We earned #1 overall tonight on top of beating UVA twice. That should mean South Carolina to DC to Minneapolis. 6 more wins!

duke2x
03-16-2019, 10:01 PM
To borrow from Sir Arthur Conan Doyle: There's an East wind coming. A good many may wither before its blast, but a cleaner, better, stronger land will lie in the sunshine when the storm has cleared. ;)

I just wish those tickets were not $125 face value.

kako
03-16-2019, 10:03 PM
To me it doesn't matter if Duke is the #1 overall seed or not. To be the best, you have to beat the best. Who knows who they would end up playing anyway in the win-or-go-home format? As long as they are #1 in the East with the prime early game slots and the least amount of travel, that's enough. In fact if they were not chosen to be the overall #1 seed, maybe they would use that as fuel to burn and prove the committee wrong...

9F

DavidBenAkiva
03-16-2019, 10:19 PM
I think you're right. Duke should be the 1 overall and in the East. I think you'll probably get the loser of the Michigan/MSU as your 2. UVA will be 1 in the South and get the winner of MSU/Michigan. That's my best guess.

Up until earlier today, I was sure that Kentucky or Tennessee would get the 2 Seed in the South, but I think you are right. Somehow, I think Gonzaga is going to hold onto its 1 seed and, with a win over Auburn, UNC slides to the Midwest 2 seed. I think we'll see something like this:

East: Duke, Michigan/MSU loser
South: Virginia, Michigan/MSU winner
Midwest: Tennessee, UNC
West: Gonzaga, Kentucky

If Auburn pulls the upset and beats Tennessee for a second time in about a week, flip Tennessee and UNC.

jhmoss1812
03-16-2019, 10:26 PM
Up until earlier today, I was sure that Kentucky or Tennessee would get the 2 Seed in the South, but I think you are right. Somehow, I think Gonzaga is going to hold onto its 1 seed and, with a win over Auburn, UNC slides to the Midwest 2 seed. I think we'll see something like this:

East: Duke, Michigan/MSU loser
South: Virginia, Michigan/MSU winner
Midwest: Tennessee, UNC
West: Gonzaga, Kentucky

If Auburn pulls the upset and beats Tennessee for a second time in about a week, flip Tennessee and UNC.

I agree with this 100%. Now, who knows what the committee will actually do? But, I think this makes the most sense to me.

Lurkingdukedog
03-16-2019, 10:40 PM
I agree with this 100%. Now, who knows what the committee will actually do? But, I think this makes the most sense to me.

Duke should be ranked #1 in the polls next week as #s 1,2,3 and 4 all fell this week. The committee will have already made their determination but this ought to be a consideration

bludevil_33
03-16-2019, 10:43 PM
Duke should be ranked #1 in the polls next week as #s 1,2,3 and 4 all fell this week. The committee will have already made their determination but this ought to be a consideration

The polls are about the last thing on the list the committee pays attention to for seeding.

Lurkingdukedog
03-16-2019, 11:01 PM
This seems right, except I don't know if they would put Duke and UNC on the same side of the bracket.

They would put Duke and UNC on the same side if Duke is the overall #1 and UNC is the 4th #1 or 1st #2

brevity
03-16-2019, 11:31 PM
Gotta believe Duke is overall #1.

I asked in chat tonight if an overall #1 seed has ever gone to a team that did NOT win its conference tournament. Virginia, Gonzaga, UNC, and Kentucky all lost this week. It's the one thing Duke holds over those candidates.

Overall #1 Seeds in the NCAA Tournament

2018: Virginia (ACC Tournament champion)
2017: Villanova (Big East Tournament champion)
2016: Kansas (Big XII Tournament champion)
2015: Kentucky (SEC Tournament champion)
2014: Florida (SEC Tournament champion)
2013: Louisville (Big East Tournament champion)
2012: Kentucky (At-Large) -- but so were overall #2 Syracuse and overall #3 Carolina
2011: Ohio State (Big Ten Tournament champion)
2010: Kansas (Big XII Tournament champion)
2009: Louisville (Big East Tournament champion) -- Big East's Pittsburgh and Connecticut got #1 seeds too
2008: Memphis (Conference USA Tournament champion)
2007: Florida (SEC Tournament champion)
2006: Duke (ACC Tournament champion)
2005: Illinois (Big Ten Tournament champion)

I'm stopping there because this Sporting News article (http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2015-no-1-overall-seed-selection-sunday-kentucky-history/liy2q2enqyh31wfiuwumatqwl) stops at 2005. I'm not sure if the overall #1 seed in 2004 was 1-loss Stanford (Pac-12 Tournament champion) or 1-loss St. Joseph's (only loss in the Atlantic 10 tournament).

Still, the pattern is pretty clear. I don't think much of the Selection Committee generally, but they seem to be pretty reliable in picking a #1 overall seed that wins its conference tournament. On Sunday evening they can easily defend the choice of Duke as an overall #1 over likely #1 Virginia and probable #1 Gonzaga, and then identify #1 Tennessee or #1 Big Ten champ as the team that won its way into the top line.

Edited to add: I researched overall top seeds to the best of my ability. Please correct me if I'm wrong, and provide a link. I happen to disagree with that Sporting News article about 2008. I think the #1 seeds went North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas. That was the year they all made the Final Four. North Carolina and Memphis wore white jerseys in their semifinal games, and while Memphis wore white jerseys on Monday, they did not play North Carolina.

BigZ
03-16-2019, 11:50 PM
I asked in chat tonight if an overall #1 seed has ever gone to a team that did NOT win its conference tournament. Virginia, Gonzaga, UNC, and Kentucky all lost this week. It's the one thing Duke holds over those candidates.

Overall #1 Seeds in the NCAA Tournament

2018: Virginia (ACC Tournament champion)
2017: Villanova (Big East Tournament champion)
2016: Kansas (Big XII Tournament champion)
2015: Kentucky (SEC Tournament champion)
2014: Florida (SEC Tournament champion)
2013: Louisville (Big East Tournament champion)
2012: Kentucky (At-Large) -- but so were overall #2 Syracuse and overall #3 Carolina
2011: Ohio State (Big Ten Tournament champion)
2010: Kansas (Big XII Tournament champion)
2009: Louisville (Big East Tournament champion) -- Big East's Pittsburgh and Connecticut got #1 seeds too
2008: Memphis (Conference USA Tournament champion)
2007: Florida (SEC Tournament champion)
2006: Duke (ACC Tournament champion)
2005: Illinois (Big Ten Tournament champion)

I'm stopping there because this Sporting News article (http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2015-no-1-overall-seed-selection-sunday-kentucky-history/liy2q2enqyh31wfiuwumatqwl) stops at 2005. I'm not sure if the overall #1 seed in 2004 was 1-loss Stanford (Pac-12 Tournament champion) or 1-loss St. Joseph's (only loss in the Atlantic 10 tournament).

Still, the pattern is pretty clear. I don't think much of the Selection Committee generally, but they seem to be pretty reliable in picking a #1 overall seed that wins its conference tournament. On Sunday evening they can easily defend the choice of Duke as an overall #1 over likely #1 Virginia and probable #1 Gonzaga, and then identify #1 Tennessee or #1 Big Ten champ as the team that won its way into the top line.

Edited to add: I researched overall top seeds to the best of my ability. Please correct me if I'm wrong, and provide a link. I happen to disagree with that Sporting News article about 2008. I think the #1 seeds went North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas. That was the year they all made the Final Four. North Carolina and Memphis wore white jerseys in their semifinal games, and while Memphis wore white jerseys on Monday, they did not play North Carolina.

Only the 2012 Kentucky and 2013 Louisville won the National Championship

BigZ
03-16-2019, 11:57 PM
Iíd go w if Tennessee wins SEC

East: Duke and Michigan
South: Virginia and MSU
Midwest: UNC and Kentucky
West: Tennessee and Gonzaga

DukeinDC
03-17-2019, 12:48 AM
May well be noted in the previous 11 pages but Duke has 6 road or neutral wins against teams that will seeded 1-4 (FSU 2x, unc, uva, Texas tech, Kentucky). No one else in contention has more than two that I can see.

Dukehk
03-17-2019, 02:34 AM
May well be noted in the previous 11 pages but Duke has 6 road or neutral wins against teams that will seeded 1-4 (FSU 2x, unc, uva, Texas tech, Kentucky). No one else in contention has more than two that I can see.

Arguably would have had more (vtech and the holes) if Zion had been healthy.

Its crazy how good our resume is this year. Amazing that we havent been the overall 1 in more than a decade.

DUKIE V(A)
03-17-2019, 06:54 AM
I asked in chat tonight if an overall #1 seed has ever gone to a team that did NOT win its conference tournament. Virginia, Gonzaga, UNC, and Kentucky all lost this week. It's the one thing Duke holds over those candidates.

Overall #1 Seeds in the NCAA Tournament

2018: Virginia (ACC Tournament champion)
2017: Villanova (Big East Tournament champion)
2016: Kansas (Big XII Tournament champion)
2015: Kentucky (SEC Tournament champion)
2014: Florida (SEC Tournament champion)
2013: Louisville (Big East Tournament champion)
2012: Kentucky (At-Large) -- but so were overall #2 Syracuse and overall #3 Carolina
2011: Ohio State (Big Ten Tournament champion)
2010: Kansas (Big XII Tournament champion)
2009: Louisville (Big East Tournament champion) -- Big East's Pittsburgh and Connecticut got #1 seeds too
2008: Memphis (Conference USA Tournament champion)
2007: Florida (SEC Tournament champion)
2006: Duke (ACC Tournament champion)
2005: Illinois (Big Ten Tournament champion)

I'm stopping there because this Sporting News article (http://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/ncaa-tournament-2015-no-1-overall-seed-selection-sunday-kentucky-history/liy2q2enqyh31wfiuwumatqwl) stops at 2005. I'm not sure if the overall #1 seed in 2004 was 1-loss Stanford (Pac-12 Tournament champion) or 1-loss St. Joseph's (only loss in the Atlantic 10 tournament).

Still, the pattern is pretty clear. I don't think much of the Selection Committee generally, but they seem to be pretty reliable in picking a #1 overall seed that wins its conference tournament. On Sunday evening they can easily defend the choice of Duke as an overall #1 over likely #1 Virginia and probable #1 Gonzaga, and then identify #1 Tennessee or #1 Big Ten champ as the team that won its way into the top line.

Edited to add: I researched overall top seeds to the best of my ability. Please correct me if I'm wrong, and provide a link. I happen to disagree with that Sporting News article about 2008. I think the #1 seeds went North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Kansas. That was the year they all made the Final Four. North Carolina and Memphis wore white jerseys in their semifinal games, and while Memphis wore white jerseys on Monday, they did not play North Carolina.

Thank you for this.

This is based on my memory only (which is no longer the most reliable) ó but is it the case that the EAST vs. WEST and SOUTH vs. MIDWEST winners meet in the FINAL FOUR? If so, and assuming Duke is placed in the EAST, my preference would be to see UVA, UNC, Kentucky, and Tennessee placed in the the SOUTH and MiDWEST. To me, those are the best four teams not named Duke. Michigan is exceptionally well coached and plays quality defense, and we have historically matched up well with Michigan State so I would prefer the Spartan as our number 2 seed.

mapei
03-17-2019, 07:07 AM
I want Duke in the East, here in DC, because I bought my tickets to the regional months ago! Of course we must take care of business and win the first game and then the second (take nothing for granted!) in order to get here.

slower
03-17-2019, 07:15 AM
Lunardi's current bracket would have us going through (possibly) Kansas, Michigan, Gonzaga or Kentucky - and then possibly meeting either UVA or Cheats in the title game. Could this be the year we get Armageddon, and face the Cheats in the final?

As others have mentioned, I really don't want to see them again (but you'd have to think it might be the highest-rated NCAA game ever).

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-17-2019, 07:19 AM
Lunardi's current bracket would have us going through (possibly) Kansas, Michigan, Gonzaga or Kentucky - and then possibly meeting either UVA or Cheats in the title game. Could this be the year we get Armageddon, and face the Cheats in the final?

As others have mentioned, I really don't want to see them again (but you'd have to think it might be the highest-rated NCAA game ever).

I would be fine with it. I think a fourth match up, given Bolden's return, would swing our way.

dukelifer
03-17-2019, 07:24 AM
Lunardi's current bracket would have us going through (possibly) Kansas, Michigan, Gonzaga or Kentucky - and then possibly meeting either UVA or Cheats in the title game. Could this be the year we get Armageddon, and face the Cheats in the final?

As others have mentioned, I really don't want to see them again (but you'd have to think it might be the highest-rated NCAA game ever).

Carolina appears to have an easy Bracket- with Wisconsin and Michigan State- if it plays out like this.

lotusland
03-17-2019, 07:34 AM
I donít see how the Zags keep a 1 after getting waxed by St. Maryís. Iím not saying they wonít get a one seed but that was a bad loss for a team with a super weak conference schedule. They lost to uNCheat and Tennessee. Zona sucks and Duke was their only really good non-conference win. Itís not really Gonzagaís fault that they donít have tougher conference schedule but, with that being the case, they should be expected to win their conference games to be seeded ahead of uNCheat, UK, Tennessee or Michigan State (if they best MI). Right now UVA, Tennessee, uNCheat and UK are the teams I donít want to play in the tournament. Bring on a rematch with the Zags.

sagegrouse
03-17-2019, 07:53 AM
I donít see how the Zags keep a 1 after getting waxed by St. Maryís. Iím not saying they wonít get a one seed but that was a bad loss for a team with a super weak conference schedule. They lost to uNCheat and Tennessee. Zona sucks and Duke was their only really good non-conference win. Itís not really Gonzagaís fault that they donít have tougher conference schedule but, with that being the case, they should be expected to win their conference games to be seeded ahead of uNCheat, UK, Tennessee or Michigan State (if they best MI). Right now UVA, Tennessee, uNCheat and UK are the teams I donít want to play in the tournament. Bring on a rematch with the Zags.

While "It's not their fault that they don't have [a] tougher conference schedule," it is their lot in life, and the Zags must rise to overcome it. They did not. The Zags lost their tournament and went 1-2 against other top teams. I wouldn't reward the Zags for being in a weak conference. I'd put them at #2. Truthfully (that's what I always say when I'm just spouting off), they should go behind UNC, Tennessee and the Big Ten champion (especially if it is Michigan), who thrived in much tougher conferences. UNC's 16-2 record in the ACC is very, very strong -- plus, it beat Gonzaga.

MrPoon
03-17-2019, 09:01 AM
I simply canít fathom the Gonzaga as a #1 argument. Iíve said it for most of the season. Their reputation is to play a hard NonCon schedule to make up for a weak Conf. They didnít this year. At all. Yes they beat Duke but their next best win is either at Creighton or against Washington. Simply a joke. Contrast that to MSUís schedule or Kentucky or UNC or Duke. While Zags faced that gauntlet, Duke played T Tech, Auburn, St Johns, and Kentucky. What they can control, they didnít (I donít know why the analytics like KenPom or NET are not picking up on that). Plus St Maryís isnít a NCAA tournament team without the win, so a worse loss than many fighting for a #1. Yes they have fewer losses but they didnít beat enough quality teams.

Same thing for UVa vs Duke for the #1 overall. Gonzaga is getting a #1 by brand or because no one else wants to be in the west and no one is good west of the Miss. UVa is in the discussion because of anylitics and win total. Look at their non-conf, the only reasonable team they played was Wisc and the league forced them to do it.

The committee said they are weighing the games the same, conf and Non Conf, early and late. If so, a poor NonConf schedule needs to be accounted for Zags and UVa didnít play anyone except one high level game a piece.

To me its Duke #1 overall, UVa, Tenn, UNC. And I actually think its fairly clear. While it is not a site I frequent for obvous reasons, this had a great graphic:
https://www.tarheelblog.com/2019/3/17/18269187/three-things-learned-acc-tournament-unc-duke-louisville-kentucky-msu-ncaa-tournament-seed-nas-coby

Love to hear a counter argument by the many smarter people here. But I have yet to hear one from the press other than Zags look like a #1 or they have a lot of wins so...

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-17-2019, 09:20 AM
I simply canít fathom the Gonzaga as a #1 argument. Iíve said it for most of the season. Their reputation is to play a hard NonCon schedule to make up for a weak Conf. They didnít this year. At all. Yes they beat Duke but their next best win is either at Creighton or against Washington. Simply a joke. Contrast that to MSUís schedule or Kentucky or UNC or Duke. While Zags faced that gauntlet, Duke played T Tech, Auburn, St Johns, and Kentucky. What they can control, they didnít (I donít know why the analytics like KenPom or NET are not picking up on that). Plus St Maryís isnít a NCAA tournament team without the win, so a worse loss than many fighting for a #1. Yes they have fewer losses but they didnít beat enough quality teams.

Same thing for UVa vs Duke for the #1 overall. Gonzaga is getting a #1 by brand or because no one else wants to be in the west and no one is good west of the Miss. UVa is in the discussion because of anylitics and win total. Look at their non-conf, the only reasonable team they played was Wisc and the league forced them to do it.

The committee said they are weighing the games the same, conf and Non Conf, early and late. If so, a poor NonConf schedule needs to be accounted for Zags and UVa didnít play anyone except one high level game a piece.

To me its Duke #1 overall, UVa, Tenn, UNC. And I actually think its fairly clear. While it is not a site I frequent for obvous reasons, this had a great graphic:
https://www.tarheelblog.com/2019/3/17/18269187/three-things-learned-acc-tournament-unc-duke-louisville-kentucky-msu-ncaa-tournament-seed-nas-coby

Love to hear a counter argument by the many smarter people here. But I have yet to hear one from the press other than Zags look like a #1 or they have a lot of wins so...

Yeah, I can't figure the rationale for the Zags as a top seed. I mean, is it a vote for fairness, or the little guy? Against East coast bias? You could, I suppose, point to their gaudy win streak (against literally no one of note) coming into the tournament, except the loss to St. Mary's killed that narrative.

I haven't kept up with the various rankings and ratings and quadrants, but there's no universe in which they have played anything remotely similar to an ACC schedule. Would you rather match up against Pepperdine or NCSU?

I will be interested to see if the committee buys into the idea of Gonzaga as a top seed, or if it is all ESPN bluster. I hope I know the answer.

uh_no
03-17-2019, 09:23 AM
Love to hear a counter argument


Yeah, I can't figure the rationale for the Zags as a top seed.

#2 NET.

It's yet to be seen as to how much or how little weight the committee will give it, but it's a valid argument.

MrPoon
03-17-2019, 09:30 AM
#2 NET.

It's yet to be seen as to how much or how little weight the committee will give it, but it's a valid argument.

Is that ranking a validation of Gonzaga or a critique of NET?

USA Today agrees with me so I must be right! :rolleyes:

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaab/2019/03/17/ncaa-tournament-march-madness-bracket/3193694002/

jhmoss1812
03-17-2019, 09:31 AM
I simply canít fathom the Gonzaga as a #1 argument. Iíve said it for most of the season. Their reputation is to play a hard NonCon schedule to make up for a weak Conf. They didnít this year. At all. Yes they beat Duke but their next best win is either at Creighton or against Washington. Simply a joke. Contrast that to MSUís schedule or Kentucky or UNC or Duke. While Zags faced that gauntlet, Duke played T Tech, Auburn, St Johns, and Kentucky. What they can control, they didnít (I donít know why the analytics like KenPom or NET are not picking up on that). Plus St Maryís isnít a NCAA tournament team without the win, so a worse loss than many fighting for a #1. Yes they have fewer losses but they didnít beat enough quality teams.

Same thing for UVa vs Duke for the #1 overall. Gonzaga is getting a #1 by brand or because no one else wants to be in the west and no one is good west of the Miss. UVa is in the discussion because of anylitics and win total. Look at their non-conf, the only reasonable team they played was Wisc and the league forced them to do it.

The committee said they are weighing the games the same, conf and Non Conf, early and late. If so, a poor NonConf schedule needs to be accounted for Zags and UVa didnít play anyone except one high level game a piece.

To me its Duke #1 overall, UVa, Tenn, UNC. And I actually think its fairly clear. While it is not a site I frequent for obvous reasons, this had a great graphic:
https://www.tarheelblog.com/2019/3/17/18269187/three-things-learned-acc-tournament-unc-duke-louisville-kentucky-msu-ncaa-tournament-seed-nas-coby

Love to hear a counter argument by the many smarter people here. But I have yet to hear one from the press other than Zags look like a #1 or they have a lot of wins so...

The league forced us to play in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament?

AGDukesky
03-17-2019, 09:35 AM
Iím not opposed to Gonzaga being a one seed, but my general rule is to try to project a mid majors record given the same schedule as a P5 vying for a 1 seed. I think Gonzaga would have a similar record to either SEC team (UK, Tenn) but not any ACC top 3 team. I still remain underwhelmed by the Big 10 thingy overall and think Gonzaga would be in the same ballpark as the Michigan teams. The other factor is injuries, which inflates UNCs record by at least one win over Duke and devalues MSUs resume. All of that said, with adjustments for injuries and assuming MSU and Tenn win today, my 1 seeds would be: Duke, UVA, MSU, Tenn. Iím expecting UNC as always to get over seeded though and be a 1.

OldPhiKap
03-17-2019, 10:30 AM
The ACC certainly earned three top seeds.

I hate the pod system, we will be stuck in another hostile environment predominated by UNC fans. We should never be in the same pod as them.

State should get in, but only by the skin of their teeth.

Roy is a cheating bastard who can go to Hell.



Guess I covered most of it. Feel better already.

scottdude8
03-17-2019, 10:31 AM
While "It's not their fault that they don't have [a] tougher conference schedule," it is their lot in life, and the Zags must rise to overcome it. They did not. The Zags lost their tournament and went 1-2 against other top teams. I wouldn't reward the Zags for being in a weak conference. I'd put them at #2. Truthfully (that's what I always say when I'm just spouting off), they should go behind UNC, Tennessee and the Big Ten champion (especially if it is Michigan), who thrived in much tougher conferences. UNC's 16-2 record in the ACC is very, very strong -- plus, it beat Gonzaga.

I 100% agree with this, but as I've talked about a lot, the NET is the great unknown this year. Gonzaga is No. 2 in the NET, but would be No. 7 in the old RPI. The committee may point to that ranking in justifying a 1 seed for Gonzaga, although I definitely agree their resume doesn't agree with it.

scottdude8
03-17-2019, 10:32 AM
To me its Duke #1 overall, UVa, Tenn, UNC. And I actually think its fairly clear. While it is not a site I frequent for obvous reasons, this had a great graphic:
https://www.tarheelblog.com/2019/3/17/18269187/three-things-learned-acc-tournament-unc-duke-louisville-kentucky-msu-ncaa-tournament-seed-nas-coby

Love to hear a counter argument by the many smarter people here. But I have yet to hear one from the press other than Zags look like a #1 or they have a lot of wins so...

How convenient that the Tar Heels left Michigan off of that graphic, who annihilated UNC...

scottdude8
03-17-2019, 10:53 AM
FWIW, from an article on ESPN.com (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26281984/toughest-questions-ncaa-tournament-selection-committee):


This one [the question of the NET] will dictate every decision the committee makes. If it's used like the RPI, it will be purely a sorting tool and not used as a tiebreaker or given heavy weight in the selection or seeding process. But this is the NCAA's baby, its new toy. So will they use it heavily throughout the bracket? I spoke on Saturday with two coaches whose teams are on the bubble, and that was the biggest question they had -- and the answer is simply, nobody knows. Nobody knows the formula and nobody knows how important it will be Sunday.

CameronCrazy'11
03-17-2019, 11:05 AM
The ACC certainly earned three top seeds.

I hate the pod system, we will be stuck in another hostile environment predominated by UNC fans. We should never be in the same pod as them.

State should get in, but only by the skin of their teeth.

Roy is a cheating bastard who can go to Hell.



Guess I covered most of it. Feel better already.

I would imagine we will be in South Carolina with UVA. UNC should get shipped off to Jacksonville.

ChillinDuke
03-17-2019, 11:08 AM
Up until earlier today, I was sure that Kentucky or Tennessee would get the 2 Seed in the South, but I think you are right. Somehow, I think Gonzaga is going to hold onto its 1 seed and, with a win over Auburn, UNC slides to the Midwest 2 seed. I think we'll see something like this:

East: Duke, Michigan/MSU loser
South: Virginia, Michigan/MSU winner
Midwest: Tennessee, UNC
West: Gonzaga, Kentucky

If Auburn pulls the upset and beats Tennessee for a second time in about a week, flip Tennessee and UNC.

Agreed.

- Chillin

budwom
03-17-2019, 11:11 AM
The Committee throws out so many criteria, with no weighting whatsoever, that one can put together all sorts of cases when it comes to seeding....it's clearly an art and not a science....

OldPhiKap
03-17-2019, 11:13 AM
I would imagine we will be in South Carolina with UVA. UNC should get shipped off to Jacksonville.

Hope that is right!!!!

ChillinDuke
03-17-2019, 11:23 AM
While I think the Gonzaga and NET questions are valid and debatable, I think we can put to bed the #1 overall seed question.

I would be utterly shocked if we weren't the #1 overall. By almost any metric, we qualify. The Zion injury will so obviously be included as a Committee consideration in light of how the ACCT went.

- Chillin

ETA: Even if the Committee considers Syracuse a valid loss (while we were down 2 starters), the 3 Zion losses were to a possible #1 seed and a close one on the road to strong Va Tech. Zion is the unquestionable consensus NPOY this year. We lost 1 game all year at full strength and that's to a 1 seed. You can include Cuse to be conservative under the argument that "everyone suffers injuries in the normal course, but realistically even that loss should be discounted heavily, and that's only 2 losses if you do so.

dukelifer
03-17-2019, 11:24 AM
While I think the Gonzaga and NET questions are valid and debatable, I think we can put to bed the #1 overall seed question.

I would be utterly shocked if we weren't the #1 overall. By almost any metric, we qualify. The Zion injury will so obviously be included as a Committee consideration in light of how the ACCT went.

- Chillin

I think that is set in stone - Everyone in contention lost. Duke was the last team standing.

slower
03-17-2019, 11:25 AM
I would imagine we will be in South Carolina with UVA. UNC should get shipped off to Jacksonville.

Lunardi has us stuck in SC with UNC. UVA and MSU to Columbus pod.

That would indeed suck to be on the same pod as UNC - could be road game atmosphere, for sure.

ALTHOUGH - the Zion love will be strong - so maybe it will all be okay.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
03-17-2019, 11:26 AM
Lunardi has us stuck in SC with UNC. UVA and MSU to Columbus pod.

That would indeed suck to be on the same pod as UNC - could be road game atmosphere, for sure.

Best way to solve that: show up in droves and make the Tar Heels miserable instead.

ChillinDuke
03-17-2019, 11:33 AM
Lunardi has us stuck in SC with UNC. UVA and MSU to Columbus pod.

That would indeed suck to be on the same pod as UNC - could be road game atmosphere, for sure.

Road atmosphere?

In a season in which every human being with a pulse wants to ooh and ahh at Zion Williamson? Duke is a monstrous draw this year. Monstrous.

In a 1-16 matchup with literally the worst team in the bracket?

In an 8/9 matchup against Utah State? Washington? Central Florida? At worst, Syracuse (again)?

This isn't your run of the mill Duke team. This isn't a potential game against a streaking South Carolina. This isn't the year to be scared about our pod.

- Chillin

slower
03-17-2019, 11:35 AM
Best way to solve that: show up in droves and make the Tar Heels miserable instead.

I remembered that SC should be okay, because of the Zion factor. Bring it on.

slower
03-17-2019, 11:36 AM
Road atmosphere?

In a season in which every human being with a pulse wants to ooh and ahh at Zion Williamson? Duke is a monstrous draw this year. Monstrous.

In a 1-16 matchup with literally the worst team in the bracket?

In an 8/9 matchup against Utah State? Washington? Central Florida? At worst, Syracuse (again)?

This isn't your run of the mill Duke team. This isn't a potential game against a streaking South Carolina. This isn't the year to be scared about our pod.

- Chillin

Yeah, I just remembered the Zion factor.

Scared? Who said anything about scared?? I just said it would suck, because I don't like UNC fans - it's like having roaches in the house. :D

jhmoss1812
03-17-2019, 11:38 AM
Lunardi has us stuck in SC with UNC. UVA and MSU to Columbus pod.

That would indeed suck to be on the same pod as UNC - could be road game atmosphere, for sure.

ALTHOUGH - the Zion love will be strong - so maybe it will all be okay.

No clue why UVA would prefer to go to Columbus over Columbia. Unless they have UNC ranked over UVA, which is hard to believe.

slower
03-17-2019, 11:40 AM
No clue why UVA would prefer to go to Columbus over Columbia. Unless they have UNC ranked over UVA, which is hard to believe.
C-Ville is actually closer to C-Bus than to Columbia.

jhmoss1812
03-17-2019, 11:43 AM
C-Ville is actually closer to C-Bus than to Columbia.

Charlottesville to Columbus - 409.3 miles

Charlottesville to Columbia - 363.3 miles

HereBeforeCoachK
03-17-2019, 11:47 AM
I remembered that SC should be okay, because of the Zion factor. Bring it on.

Duke and UNC should not be in the same pod ever....that's terrible.

slower
03-17-2019, 11:48 AM
Charlottesville to Columbus - 409.3 miles

Charlottesville to Columbia - 363.3 miles
Check that again, my friend. Keep your miles and KM separate.