MBB: Duke at uNC (Sat 3/9, 6:00 pm ET, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Troublemaker]

Put your thoughts about this game in here.

To start off with, a couple from me:
(1) If Zion is out, I highly recommend making the two primary creators RJ and Tre, not RJ and Cam.
(2) Jack's rebounding would seem to be huge in this game. We need him to shoot well so he can stay on the court. I like Jack over Alex in this one.

[Troublemaker]

If Zion is out, a reminder of when an undermanned, highly-doubted, essentially 5-man team (after Matt Jones got injured) went into Chapel Hill recently and won:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XTBy8oK0m-g

[freshmanjs]

I like that people are doubting us. It's not often that we get to be an underdog. Even without Zion, I like our chances. Team will be ready to go with a good gameplan. All the pressure will be on UNC if Zion doesn't play. If he does play, then we are the better team IMO.

[UrinalCake]

In the first game we did a great job of taking away their threes, and that will have to be a priority again. If they get going from three, we're just not going to score enough to keep up. The question then becomes how do we do that without also giving up so many easy layups inside, if we don't have Zion to patrol the lane? I thought against Wake we did a better job of having our bigs recover after they hedged up top. Typically it is so easy to force us into switches, but we seemed focused on getting our bigs back onto their original man, so that was good. Against the CHeats we're really going to have to clean up the switching and recovering because that was the biggest failure in the first game that led to their layup line. We also need to do a better job of recognizing who their scorers are and not helping off of them.

If Zion doesn't play then we're going to need a hot shooting night and a gimmicky defense. Maybe some full court pressure and throw in some zone (but don't overpursue and leave the corner threes wide open). It will be a tough task.

On the Zion front, I really think he's going to play and that K's comment about being unsure of his status is just gamesmanship. How could you be 100% positive he will be ready in 10 days, but doubtful that he will play in four days? I could be wrong though.

[CDu]

Content mostly copy/pasted over from the first matchup. Let's go Duke!

UNC does a lot of the things that Roy Williams teams do well: namely, run the floor and rebound on both ends. They play the 4th fastest tempo in D1, and are a top-25 rebounding team on both the offensive and defensive glass. That second stat is really impressive as they are not a big team. On offense, they are a fantastic 3pt shooting team, but they turn it over a fair amount and they don’t draw fouls. It is a bit abnormal for a UNC team to shoot so many threes and to not draw fouls, but that is kind of the team they have. On defense, they congest the lane and rebound extremely well, can occasionally force turnovers, but that is about it.

Centers: The nominal center is Garrison Brooks (6’9”, 230lb sophomore). Brooks is an athletic, energy player who does the little things. He is good in the pick-and-roll game and can finish at the rim. He can also knock down the occasional 15-footer. But he can’t dribble and is mainly a tertiary offensive option. Still, he plays with high energy and effort and has a knack for the annoyingly successful play despite limited skill. In theory, Brooks is backed up by Sterling Manley (6’11”, 235lb sophomore). But Manley missed over a month with a knee injury and has played very sparingly the last two games. When he has played this year, he has generally been ineffective. Well, maybe that isn’t fair. He has blocked shots and has rebounded at an elite rate. But his offensive contributions have been awful. Brandon Huffman (6’10”, 250lb sophomore) is the emergency big. But the Heels will often just go smaller when Brooks is out.

Forwards: Luke Maye (6’8”, 240lb senior) is the starter at forward. Maye is the kind of story one would love if he wasn’t a Heel. A lightly-recruited, undersized and under athletic big, he has put in a ton of work to maximize his play at the college level. He is a strong kid, an elite defensive rebounder. He is also a terrific shooter, though he has struggled a bit this year. He can’t dribble at all, though, and on a team light on playmakers his offensive limitations have been somewhat exposed. He is sort of like a bigger, less bouncy Jack White. Maye will be overmatched if asked to defend anyone but Bolden/White/DeLaurier. I would expect us to try to get him iso’d on a freshman when possible. Behind, and sometimes alongside Maye is Nassir Little (6’6”, 220lb freshman). Little was a top-5 recruit who has elite physical tools and plays a high-energy style. And he has been really productive for UNC... when Roy has let him play. He averages 20.8 points and 9.9 rebounds per 40 minutes, but gets just 18.3 mpg because he doesn’t fit Roy’s system on the wing and Roy doesn’t like to play a small ball PF much (Little would be a nightmare as a college 4). He doesn’t handle the ball well and doesn’t shoot well, but he is ferocious on straight-line drives and finishing at the rim.

Wings: Cam Johnson (6’9”, 210lb senior grad transfer from Pitt) is the star on the wing. Johnson is the rare grad transfer who (a) did so with TWO years of eligibility left and (b) got to do so within conference. So, kudos to UNC for pulling that off. Johnson’s game is the 3-ball. He is an ELITE perimeter shooter. Like the others mentioned, Johnson doesn’t dribble. So he relies on others to create looks for him. But when he gets a lot, it frequently goes in. On defense, though, Johnson can be a liability at times. The other starter on the wing is Kenny Williams (6’4”, 185lb senior). Williams is another lower-tier recruit turned good for UNC. He is a good athlete and willing defender, and a better shooter than his numbers would indicate. He also has a knack for hitting loooong, contested 3s late in the shot clock. Williams gets a fair amount of “pass it on the perimeter” assists as well. Once again, though, the limitation for him is that he doesn’t handle the ball well. The third man on the wings is technically Little, but Little plays more of a forward role. So the next up is Brandon Robinson (6’4”, 170lb junior). Robinson is a string bean with decent athleticism but whose primary value is, you guessed it, his outside shot. And, you probably also guessed, he can’t handle the ball. The other option will be either Rechon “Leaky” Black (6’7”, 185lb freshman) or Andrew Platek (6’3”, 200lb sophomore). Black has missed several games with an ankle injury, and there has been no update on his availability. So who knows? If he plays, Black is a long, athletic shooting wing who can harass the passing lanes. Sort of a very poor man’s Reddish, if you will. If Black sits, Platek might fill in sparingly. And that would be a big edge to Duke, because Platek is not skilled or athletic enough to play at the ACC level.

Guards: Coby White (6’5”, 185lb freshman) is the guy that carries this UNC team. He is one of only two capable ballhandlers, and is also their best scorer. White isn’t really a PG, but can do it in a pinch. He is a terrific shooter and crafty ballhandler/driver. He is a threat to score from anywhere, and will need to be the focal point of our game plan. Make him struggle and force it into the hands of others, and good things can happen for us. The less White has the ball, the better. The only other guy who can dribble for UNC is Seventh Woods (6’2”, 185lb junior). Woods was an elite prospect as a freshman in high school, leading to an early UNC commit. But his game plateaued young, and he just has never put it together in college. Woods is a terrific athlete who just doesn’t have the b-ball IQ to make it work at his size. He can handle the ball okay, and can deliver highlight-reel dunks. But he is a turnover machine and a minimal offensive weapon. He does generate assists, but he feels kind of like an empty calorie guy out there. Still, White serves his role as the backup point whenever White needs a break.

UNC is more experienced and a far better shooting team. If they dominate the glass (which they can do) and/or hit their 3s, we will be in trouble. If we can limit their transition buckets, force guys other than White to make plays, and keep them from killing us on the boards, we have a chance. But it won’t be easy.

Obviously, the chances of victory go up dramatically with a healthy Zion playing.

[Troublemaker]

I like that people are doubting us. It's not often that we get to be an underdog. Even without Zion, I like our chances. Team will be ready to go with a good gameplan. All the pressure will be on UNC if Zion doesn't play. If he does play, then we are the better team IMO.

I agree. I kind of like that we're coming off a 1-pt win vs Wake Forest heading into this game. It'll hopefully put us into the right frame of mind and hopefully put UNC into the wrong frame of mind. There's a reason why across all sports, coaches and players like to play up "Nobody believes in us!"



On the Zion front, I really think he's going to play and that K's comment about being unsure of his status is just gamesmanship. How could you be 100% positive he will be ready in 10 days, but doubtful that he will play in four days? I could be wrong though.

I think part of the consideration is whether Coach K wants the UNC game to be Zion's first game back.

[CDu]

One additional factor that would (in theory, at least; it hasn't typically worked out that way historically) play to our advantage won't likely be a factor this year: starting the walk-on seniors. This year, UNC doesn't appear to have any senior walk-ons. The only seniors they have are already starters (Maye, Johnson, Williams). So we unfortunately likely won't get the opportunity for Tre Jones to repeatedly pick the pocket of a poor walk-on in the opening minutes.

That said, we haven't exactly managed to torch UNC consistently during those opening minutes over the years. But it would have been nice to have had the opportunity.

[bigperm13]

Anything can happen on a given night. A good majority of those 3s UVa hit the other night were long, contested shots that were just what Syracuse wanted but they were swishes. If unc goes off like that, tip of the hat (after first putting the hat in the toilet) to them and it's happened with Duke as well. These next 3.5 days are going to be interesting.

[dukebluesincebirth]

If Zion truly isn't playing, and that's the biggest IF of the season, then K is going to have to conjure some special special magic for this one. It's just hard for me to see a path to victory without our big guy. He brings SO much to the table, and maybe most importantly on the defensive end. Luke Maye will play just like he played in Cameron. He may not get all the way to 30 points, but his game doesn't change. He's consistent. Athleticism negates what he does (which he is very good at), and without Z we don't have the athletes to guard him. He absolutely abused Jack White in Durham. It was painful to watch. Delaurier wasn't any better. Bolden either. If Maye is torching you, and you still have to contend with the scoring abilities of White and Johnson, that's a long night. Especially if you can't shoot. I'm trying to think of something positive to say... maybe lower expectations will be less of a letdown?? Maybe they'll go ice cold shooting?? IDK. I will not go into this game expecting a W.

[robed deity]

One additional factor that would (in theory, at least; it hasn't typically worked out that way historically) play to our advantage won't likely be a factor this year: starting the walk-on seniors. This year, UNC doesn't appear to have any senior walk-ons. The only seniors they have are already starters (Maye, Johnson, Williams). So we unfortunately likely won't get the opportunity for Tre Jones to repeatedly pick the pocket of a poor walk-on in the opening minutes.

That said, we haven't exactly managed to torch UNC consistently during those opening minutes over the years. But it would have been nice to have had the opportunity.

Except for a few occasions, I feel this has worked against Duke. As you said, Duke hasn't exploited it, and because of that, I feel like UNC gains an emotional boost. Impossible to measure though, and in theory, it's obviously better to play against significantly worse players for 10 percent of the game than not.

[Troublemaker]

I think part of the consideration is whether Coach K wants the UNC game to be Zion's first game back.

One thing to keep in mind. I'm not saying this is necessarily rational, but in Zion's two most recent plays trying to take a UNC player off the dribble, Zion has seriously injured himself. Now, we all remember THE most recent play in which Zion laid down the most explosive left foot plant in human history and destroyed a shoe, which caused him to sprain his right MCL.

But prior to that, in the McDonald's All-American Game, Zion tried to take Nassir Little off the dribble and Zion ended up falling and bending his thumb backwards in a very nasty looking injury when he braced the fall. (Here's a high-resolution GIF for anyone morbidly curious (https://gfycat.com/periodicleanherald).) The thumb injury ended his high school all-star game season, but thankfully, it wasn't serious enough for him to miss Duke's Canada tour.

If Zion plays, I'd want him to almost be a decoy at the beginning of the game. Ease into the game; modulate his emotions and energy instead of getting too amped up; don't try to win the game and get payback with one play. I love that he loves Duke and cares about the rivalry, though (if that's playing a role in his misfortune and not just dumb, random luck).

[Lar77]

This will be a With Zion or Without Zion game, depending on the next 3 days of practice. Regardless, we need to do three things well:


Keep track of Luke Maye. He positions well. Reminds me (for the old timers) of Bailey Howell of the Celtics in the 1960s (an All-Star with no particular skills, other than positioning to get the opportunistic play).
Defend Cam Johnson and Coby White
Take care of the ball (not just passing, but not rushing shots).


Focus for the whole game

[CDu]

This will be a With Zion or Without Zion game, depending on the next 3 days of practice. Regardless, we need to do three things well:


Keep track of Luke Maye. He positions well. Reminds me (for the old timers) of Bailey Howell of the Celtics in the 1960s (an All-Star with no particular skills, other than positioning to get the opportunistic play).
Defend Cam Johnson and Coby White
Take care of the ball (not just passing, but not rushing shots).


Focus for the whole game

So much of beating UNC depends on the following:
1. Don't let them get transition baskets (i.e., get your [tail] back defensively)
2. Minimize their damage on the glass
3. Pay attention to their off-ball screen action, which is the way they generate easy baskets at the rim aside from offensive rebounds
4. Contain the playmaker (in this case, Coby White)

If you can do those four things, you can beat UNC. We didn't do 3 of those 4 things well last time out (we did a great job on White). We need to be better, obviously. With or without Zion. With Zion would make it much easier to do those things, of course.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

So much of beating UNC depends on the following:
1. Don't let them get transition baskets (i.e., get your [tail] back defensively)
2. Minimize their damage on the glass
3. Pay attention to their off-ball screen action, which is the way they generate easy baskets at the rim aside from offensive rebounds
4. Contain the playmaker (in this case, Coby White)

If you can do those four things, you can beat UNC. We didn't do 3 of those 4 things well last time out (we did a great job on White). We need to be better, obviously. With or without Zion. With Zion would make it much easier to do those things, of course.

How in the bejeezus does UNC always dominate the glass? It seems regardless of personnel or opponent, they almost always have an advantage there.

I'm sure Tar Heel fans would say the same about our 3 point shooting until, well, this year.

[CDu]

How in the bejeezus does UNC always dominate the glass? It seems regardless of personnel or opponent, they almost always have an advantage there.

I'm sure Tar Heel fans would say the same about our 3 point shooting until, well, this year.

It's one of the things that Williams coaches really well. Along with tempo. His teams always play fast, and always are great on the glass. One of the benefits of being a system coach is that, if you are good at it, you can make sure your team is great at certain things. UNC's system is built around finding ways to feed the post, dominating the boards, and pushing tempo at every opportunity. Everything revolves around that.

There are things that they are consistently bad at, too, like 3pt shooting defense. By comparison, Coach K teams have generally been decent to great at defending/preventing 3s but bad to awful at defensive rebounding. Just a different philosophy.

[Reddevil]

If they win by being hot from 3, so be it, but Duke needs to do all they can to stop the layup line. Make it so they get one shot per possesion.

[BandAlum83]

This will be a With Zion or Without Zion game, depending on the next 3 days of practice. Regardless, we need to do three things well:


Keep track of Luke Maye. He positions well. Reminds me (for the old timers) of Bailey Howell of the Celtics in the 1960s (an All-Star with no particular skills, other than positioning to get the opportunistic play).
Defend Cam Johnson and Coby White
Take care of the ball (not just passing, but not rushing shots).


Focus for the whole game

Whew.....I have no idea who that is. I guess I'm not an old time (yet!)

[Kedsy]

If they win by being hot from 3, so be it, but Duke needs to do all they can to stop the layup line. Make it so they get one shot per possesion.

I think this is wrong. It looked bad because of the uncontested layups, but by shutting down UNC’s three-point game we held them to a 0.85 adjusted dRating, which is really good. We allowed them 14 fast break points, which isn’t great but is certainly adequate in an 87 possession game, and we garnered 74% of available defensive rebounds, essentially meaning their offensive rebounding prowess was a non-factor.

Where we lost the last game was on offense, not defense. We shot poorly, turned the ball over way too much, didn’t get to the line, and were almost as ineffective on the offensive boards as they were.

Bottom line, if our D is the same as it was last game, and our offense looks like it did against Wake, we’ll probably lose. If our D is exactly the same as last game and our offense looks like it did against Miami or Syracuse, or even VaTech, we’ll probably win.

[robed deity]

I'm not saying Duke will win without Zion, but I know I wouldn't feel comfortable betting against an underdog RJ Barrett. He will definitely need some help though.

[killerleft]

Whew....I have no idea who that is. I guess I'm not an old time (yet!)

Bailey Howell made his mark manufacturing motion-picture cameras before segueing into the NBA.:):o You may be too old for that joke, too.

[Kedsy]

You guys want more evidence that our defense was fine but our offense was not in the last UNC game?

FEWEST POINTS PER POSSESSION (unadjusted) 2018-19

UNC:
vs. Louisville 0.838 (L)
vs. Kentucky 0.867 (L)
vs. Michigan 0.944 (L)
vs. Duke 1.000 (W)
vs. Harvard 1.000 (W)

DUKE:
vs. UNC 0.818 (L)
vs. Tex Tech 0.852 (W)
vs. Wake Forest 0.922 (W)
vs. Ga Tech 0.957 (W)
vs. Louisville 0.959 (W)

So Duke's D, while not perfect, held UNC to its 4th-lowest ppp of the season, while Duke's O put up its worst ppp of the season. Seems pretty obvious to me where our issues did and didn't lie in that game.

[BandAlum83]

I think this is wrong. It looked bad because of the uncontested layups, but by shutting down UNC’s three-point game we held them to a 0.85 adjusted dRating, which is really good. We allowed them 14 fast break points, which isn’t great but is certainly adequate in an 87 possession game, and we garnered 74% of available defensive rebounds, essentially meaning their offensive rebounding prowess was a non-factor.

Where we lost the last game was on offense, not defense. We shot poorly, turned the ball over way too much, didn’t get to the line, and were almost as ineffective on the offensive boards as they were.

Bottom line, if our D is the same as it was last game, and our offense looks like it did against Wake, we’ll probably lose. If our D is exactly the same as last game and our offense looks like it did against Miami or Syracuse, or even VaTech, we’ll probably win.

Kedsy, I really love that you are a consistent voice of reason and supportable comments on DBR. I, and I'm sure many others, value your contributions way more than you know.

[Troublemaker]

I'm not saying Duke will win without Zion, but I know I wouldn't feel comfortable betting against an underdog RJ Barrett. He will definitely need some help though.

Tre, too. He watched his brother sweep UNC and now he's going to allow them to sweep him? RJ and Tre and the guys are going lay it all out there on Saturday.

Secretly, in the Wake Game, Tre had his best offensive game in awhile. And likewise, Jack had his best 20+ minute outing since January. Yeah, yeah, he missed some bunnies, but the defense and rebounding and even a couple of threes were there. We're going to need both of those guys to be big, as I mentioned in the thread-starter post.

[jv001]

I agree with Kedsy that Duke lost the game to the cheats because of our lack of offense. We took 43 three pointers if I'm remembering correctly. That's way too many for a team that doesn't shoot the 3 well. Not only did we take too many, we took too many of them off balance. That along with our turnovers gave them some easy baskets. The main thing we did bad on defense was letting Maye get easy shots at the basket. The switch on every screen came back to bite us in the rear and I fear if we do it again, we'll end up with Maye on a shorter player near the basket.

Things I hope we see:
1) An offense that doesn't depend on RJ driving into double teams in the paint. If we do, that will lead to a charge or another type turnover. I hope to see some type offense that gets Alex and Cam open for good looks from 3. If we can hit a few 3s early that will open up the lane for RJ. But for gosh sakes, don't rely on the 3 exclusively. That brings me to the 2nd option, get the ball down low to Marques and get some fouls on Maye. At least make him work on defense. As for Javin, only give him dump off passes. Don't use him in the low post for feeds. He has bad hands and is weak with the ball. Dump offs only.

2) Tre drive the ball into the lane and dish off for open 3s or more so for some easy baskets at the rim. If they leave Tre open, make the layup or pull up jumper. The floater would even be nice.

3) Cam be steady with the ball. No charges, no losing the handle and finish strong at the basket.

4) On defense make Maye shoot the ball with a defender on him. No easy shots. If he makes a contested shot, hats off to him and next play.

5) The last one shouldn't be a problem. Come out focused and play that way the entire game. For gosh sakes, this Duke vs. The CHEATS.

GoDuke!

Oh, almost forgot. Don't let Jack make any in bounds passes. GoDuke!

[UrinalCake]

I'm not saying Duke will win without Zion, but I know I wouldn't feel comfortable betting against an underdog RJ Barrett. He will definitely need some help though.

In the first game Barrett scored 33 on 11-22 shooting and had 13 rebounds. Reddish went for 27. It would be unreasonable to expect much more out of those two. Somebody else (or ideally, multiple people) needs to step up on offense.

[Kedsy]

In the first game Barrett scored 33 on 11-22 shooting and had 13 rebounds. Reddish went for 27. It would be unreasonable to expect much more out of those two. Somebody else (or ideally, multiple people) needs to step up on offense.

The two also combined for 9 turnovers in that game (we had 9 assists against 20 turnovers overall, which was a big problem). All players other than RJ and Cam combined to shoot 1 for 16 (6.3%) from three and 3 for 11 (27.3%) from two (and all three makes were by Javin; the other six (non-RJ, non-Cam) players who played in that game combined for 0 for 8 from two).

It's not hard to imagine Duke playing a lot better on offense in this game. Whether we can play defense as good as last time remains to be seen.

[Bob Green]

Carolina's 88-72 victory over Duke on February 20 has zero bearing on Saturday's contest. Between equally talented teams, each game is its own entity. Duke lost Zion to injury 33 seconds into the first match up and was shell shocked. Saturday brings new circumstances where Duke will be prepared for Carolina. I'm optimistic we will be fine.

[azzefkram]

Should Zion not play, Duke seems to have a Maye problem. I think Duke matches up pretty well with the rest of the team but Maye will pose some issues. Jav and Marques may be able to cover Maye and whichever other big is playing but the offense would be offensive. It's going to be interesting to see what Coach K comes up with should Zion not play.

[rsvman]

We allowed a fair number of deep entry passes and also quick transition buckets to Wake last night, something Carolina thrives on. These must be stopped.

They like to capitalize on people admiring their handiwork; i.e., you make a three, you want to stand there with your wrist in follow-through position and enjoy it. While you are doing that, they are already behind you, scoring a layup on the other end. You just HAVE TO get back! (On the other hand, if we shoot the way we shot against Wake, we might not have many chances to admire our work.)

If you can get them into a half-court situation, they rely a lot of hard cuts to the basket and on big-to-big screens in the deep post. They find their cutters well, and they feed the deep post well. Our over-aggressive defense plays into their hard cuts. I would advocate for backing off a little on the passing lanes in order to protect against the hard cuts, without giving up the three (kind of like Bennett's teams, but a little more out there). I think this Duke team tends to get too far out on defense. It works for teams that get flustered, because we end up with a lot of steals, but Carolina will not get flustered, and they will make us pay with back-doors.

Slowing down Coby is doable, and we have the guy to do it. Keeping Cam Johnson from lighting it up from 3 should be a top priority. Whoever is covering Cam should virtually never leave to rotate on D, even if it means giving up a layup. As Kedsy has pointed out, even with the "lay-up line" they got in the last game, their offensive efficiency wasn't that good because we worked so hard to shut down the three-ball. We need to continue doing that, without overplaying passing lanes. There is a fine line to be walked, to be sure.

They are beatable. We tend to do pretty well in the Dean's Myth center. But it will require a concentrated effort on both ends of the court and no foul trouble.

On offense, I would argue for running some plays to get AOC some looks early on. If he is hitting, continue them.

We may need Jack White for rebounding, but I am very worried about his shot; I saw the hitch coming back into his shot motion later in the Wake game. That's how he shoots when he worries about whether he can make the shot. We need him to not shoot scared.

Without Zion, I'd say we have maybe a 35% chance of pulling out the win, if all the pieces come together. With Zion, I like our chances quite a bit, as he will virtually neutralize Maye.

[uh_no]

They are beatable. We tend to do pretty well in the Dean's Myth center. But it will require a concentrated effort on both ends of the court and no foul trouble.


They were beatable in cameron if we hadn't turned the ball over a gazillion times and hadn't made some really poor shot selections. I expect with time to gameplan, like the first uva game after the first cuse game, we will come out looking far more formidable, with or without zion.

[UNCfan]

Other than being a huge rivalry game, there is no reason to bring Zion back for the UNC game. The seeding for the ACCT is basically set. I believe they will sit him and wait for next Thursday.
On the other hand, it will be tough to bring him back and play up to three games in three days. If he is healthy, maybe you bring him back for his one chance to play in the Smith Center in this intense rivalry.

If he does not play, I think UNC could see a lot of zone on Saturday night. If I was Duke, even though you guys will be short handed, I would pressure full court and make Coby a TO machine. I do not think you need to do it all night, but it could upset UNC's rhythm early.

Maye will be hunting his shot. If he isn't hitting early, I would let him shoot himself silly.

I think if Zion sits, UNC should win this game 90% of the time. But, if you can keep it close, RJ is so clutch at getting his shot and converting, weird things can happen.

If Zion plays, it could be an all-time game. Coin flip.

Go Heels

[CDu]

Other than being a huge rivalry game, there is no reason to bring Zion back for the UNC game. The seeding for the ACCT is basically set. I believe they will sit him and wait for next Thursday.
On the other hand, it will be tough to bring him back and play up to three games in three days. If he is healthy, maybe you bring him back for his one chance to play in the Smith Center in this intense rivalry.

If he does not play, I think UNC could see a lot of zone on Saturday night. If I was Duke, even though you guys will be short handed, I would pressure full court and make Coby a TO machine. I do not think you need to do it all night, but it could upset UNC's rhythm early.

Maye will be hunting his shot. If he isn't hitting early, I would let him shoot himself silly.

I think if Zion sits, UNC should win this game 90% of the time. But, if you can keep it close, RJ is so clutch at getting his shot and converting, weird things can happen.

If Zion plays, it could be an all-time game. Coin flip.

Go Heels

Well, the seeding is hardly set. If Louisville upsets UVa, Duke and UNC would be playing a game in which the winner gets the 1 seed and the loser the 3 (with UVa as their pairing in the 2/3 half of the bracket. And even if UVa wins, the rivalry game is for the 2 seed.

If Zion is fully healthy, he will play. If he is anything less than 100%, he will sit. But it isn’t the case that this game has no seeding implications.

[-jk]

Well, the seeding is hardly set. If Louisville upsets UVa, Duke and UNC would be playing a game in which the winner gets the 1 seed and the loser the 3 (with UVa as their pairing in the 2/3 half of the bracket. And even if UVa wins, the rivalry game is for the 2 seed.

If Zion is fully healthy, he will play. If he is anything less than 100%, he will sit. But it isn’t the case that this game has no seeding implications.

'Ville is broken (and I suspect we put the nail in their coffin). They aren't beating UVa...

-jk

[CDu]

'Ville is broken (and I suspect we put the nail in their coffin). They aren't beating UVa...

-jk

Stranger things have happened.

[chrishoke]

Stranger things have happened.

Now there's a pie bet I would take.

[CDu]

Now there's a pie bet I would take.

Oh I am by no means expecting a UVa loss. They will most likely win. But it wouldn’t be unfathomable for them to lose.

[UrinalCake]

Agree with pressuring full court as White does turn the ball over a lot. Unfortunately we’re going to have to play a bigger lineup in order to not get blasted on the boards, which prevents us from playing the “make UL poop their pants” style of defense. As for Maye, he typically struggles against big physical defenders which is why Zion would be the perfect guy to shut him down. Without him I think that falls on Jack. Maye exploited this matchup numerous times in the first matchup, but I still think he’s our best option.

[jv001]

Oh I am by no means expecting a UVa loss. They will most likely win. But it wouldn’t be unfathomable for them to lose.

Maybe the Cavs come out like we did last night. :cool: GoDuke!

[jv001]

Agree with pressuring full court as White does turn the ball over a lot. Unfortunately we’re going to have to play a bigger lineup in order to not get blasted on the boards, which prevents us from playing the “make UL poop their pants” style of defense. As for Maye, he typically struggles against big physical defenders which is why Zion would be the perfect guy to shut him down. Without him I think that falls on Jack. Maye exploited this matchup numerous times in the first matchup, but I still think he’s our best option.

I think Marques is the best option but there's always the problem of switching on every screen. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

Now there's a pie bet I would take.

If Louisville has no chance, surely you would bet 20 pies to win my 1 pie, right?



I think if Zion sits, UNC should win this game 90% of the time. But, if you can keep it close, RJ is so clutch at getting his shot and converting, weird things can happen.

Surely you would bet 7 pies to win my 1 pie, right? The odds are correct for you since UNC should win 90% of the time (which means a fair bet would be 9 to 1).

[Kedsy]

Unfortunately we’re going to have to play a bigger lineup in order to not get blasted on the boards...

We didn't play a bigger lineup last time and we basically played them even on the boards (they got more rebounds than us only because we missed more shots; we rebounded 73.7% of defensive rebounding opportunities while they rebounded 73.5% and on offense we rebounded 26.5% while they rebounded 26.3%).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

We didn't play a bigger lineup last time and we basically played them even on the boards (they got more rebounds than us only because we missed more shots; we rebounded 73.7% of defensive rebounding opportunities while they rebounded 73.5% and on offense we rebounded 26.5% while they rebounded 26.3%).

That is an astonishing breakdown of the rebounding stats.....incredibly close.

[robed deity]

Other than being a huge rivalry game, there is no reason to bring Zion back for the UNC game. The seeding for the ACCT is basically set. I believe they will sit him and wait for next Thursday.
On the other hand, it will be tough to bring him back and play up to three games in three days. If he is healthy, maybe you bring him back for his one chance to play in the Smith Center in this intense rivalry.

If he does not play, I think UNC could see a lot of zone on Saturday night. If I was Duke, even though you guys will be short handed, I would pressure full court and make Coby a TO machine. I do not think you need to do it all night, but it could upset UNC's rhythm early.

Maye will be hunting his shot. If he isn't hitting early, I would let him shoot himself silly.

I think if Zion sits, UNC should win this game 90% of the time. But, if you can keep it close, RJ is so clutch at getting his shot and converting, weird things can happen.

If Zion plays, it could be an all-time game. Coin flip.

Go Heels

Wow, 90 percent. That's awfully high. I'm not sure it's ever 90 percent in this rivalry.

[jv001]

Wow, 90 percent. That's awfully high. I'm not sure it's ever 90 percent in this rivalry.

I hope the cheat players feel the same way as their fans. GoDuke!

[hallcity]

From Ben Swain:

ACC road games vs. top half this year:

Duke: Virginia, UNC, FSU, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse

Virginia: Duke, NC State, UNC, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse

UNC: Duke, Louisville, NC State

[duke2x]

Wow, 90 percent. That's awfully high. I'm not sure it's ever 90 percent in this rivalry.

Analytics would also strongly disagree. Let me first acknowledge that the analytics on Duke lack good predictive power right now. You've got some games with everybody, some without Tre, and some without Zion. We don't know for sure what we have on Saturday. It is a little more objective than either fan base.

Kenpom has Duke roughly -4 at a neutral site. That would probably put us -1 on Saturday.

Bart Torvik has Duke +2.5 but uses 5 points for home advantage, which I think is excessive. He would thus have Duke -2.5 at a neutral site. A 2.5 spread translates Duke 42% chance of winning @UNC and 58% chance of winning at a neutral site. FYI, 90% was where Torvik had Duke beating UNC at home before the injury.

Sagarin Predictor and Golden Mean put the game at a pick'em and Duke -3 at a neutral site.

[UrinalCake]

From Ben Swain:
ACC road games vs. top half this year:
...
UNC: Duke, Louisville, NC State

UNC got to play us without Zion, and State is barely in the top half. Meanwhile UVA had to play the CHeats 48 hours after playing us, with travel in between.

[proelitedota]

Not liking how our team is trending. Zion's injury really screwed with the tail end of the season. Usually it's during this time that good teams put the finishing touches on their play.

We've being a barely top 30 team during this 6 game stretch according to Bart. Unless Zion comes back and we return to peak form, I am not seeing how the season doesn't end on a low note.

Historically, title teams have a strong showing for the late Feb and early March period.

[Kedsy]

Historically, title teams have a strong showing for the late Feb and early March period.

Championship teams' final 10 games before NCAA tourney, last 20 years:

2018 Villanova: 8-2
2017 UNC: 7-3
2016 Villanova: 8-2
2015 Duke: 9-1
2014 UConn: 7-3
2013 Louisville: 10-0
2012 Kentucky: 9-1
2011 UConn: 6-4
2010 Duke: 9-1
2009 UNC: 8-2
2008 Kansas: 9-1
2007 Florida: 7-3
2006 Florida: 7-3
2005 UNC: 8-2
2004 UConn: 8-2
2003 Syracuse: 8-2
2002 Maryland: 9-1
2001 Duke: 8-2
2000 Michigan State: 9-1
1999 UConn: 9-1

So, 20 years and only one team won its last 10 games before the tournament. Twelve out of 20 teams (60%) lost two or more of their last 10 games (including four of the last five seasons). Five of 20 (25%) lost three or more games (including two of the last five seasons). Doesn't seem like we're out of contention just yet.

[uh_no]

Historically, title teams have a strong showing for the late Feb and early March period.

I'm highly skeptical the data show any trend between difference between early and late season performance and NCAA titles.

Villanova had a few stinkers heading into the tournament last year. UNC was 2-2 in their last 4, Uconn '14 was trash all year long, Uconn '11 was even trashier....jeez...that uconn team was 4-7 in their last 11...then won 11 straight.

[robed deity]

I'm highly skeptical the data show any trend between difference between early and late season performance and NCAA titles.

Villanova had a few stinkers heading into the tournament last year. UNC was 2-2 in their last 4, Uconn '14 was trash all year long, Uconn '11 was even trashier...jeez...that uconn team was 4-7 in their last 11...then won 11 straight.

Especially with Duke's circumstances. I mean, they presumably will get back one of the 2 or 3 best players of the last decade. I get that you want to be peaking and there are concerns about his reintegration etc, but if he comes back healthy, evaluating the last 10 games seems somewhat pointless to me. It just isn't the same team.

[TruBlu]

9136

Bad news for Duke. unc has successfully cloned Tyler Hanstravel, and they all have eligibility. Shown here practicing their walking skills.

[Saratoga2]

1) An offense that doesn't depend on RJ driving into double teams in the paint. If we do, that will lead to a charge or another type turnover. I hope to see some type offense that gets Alex and Cam open for good looks from 3. If we can hit a few 3s early that will open up the lane for RJ. But for gosh sakes, don't rely on the 3 exclusively. That brings me to the 2nd option, get the ball down low to Marques and get some fouls on Maye. At least make him work on defense. As for Javin, only give him dump off passes. Don't use him in the low post for feeds. He has bad hands and is weak with the ball. Dump offs only.



We showed no imagination on the offense in the Wake game. It was, bring the ball up with RJ or quicklly dish the ball to RJ and let him take on the defense by himself with the other players watching more than participating. We won with that but it is too high an expectation to see us prevail against UNC with that approach. I prefer to see Tre handle the ball, Cam not try to drive but to stick with either 3's or mid range jumpers. We don't want him picking up charging fouls or turning the ball over with his loose handle. Cam has to hit shots, which he didn't do against Wake until the second half. Cam has been inconsistent, time for him to suck it up and contribute one of his big games.

Let's hope Marques can play solid minutes in the game as UNC will run up the floor. He does tire. We do need more from Alex, Tre and Jack onn offense. It won't happen if its solely the RJ show. I haven't seen much in the way of plays run for anyone but RJ. Of course, if Zion plays, our chances go way up.

[Troublemaker]

Not liking how our team is trending. Zion's injury really screwed with the tail end of the season. Usually it's during this time that good teams put the finishing touches on their play.

We've being a barely top 30 team during this 6 game stretch according to Bart. Unless Zion comes back and we return to peak form, I am not seeing how the season doesn't end on a low note.

Historically, title teams have a strong showing for the late Feb and early March period.

I don't want to jinx it, but on Saturday, Duke just has to give our average Saturday performance this season. Even if you only count the Saturdays playing without Zion (two games / small sample), Duke would win.

Mechanically, how it happens is that Duke uses the longer Tue-Sat turnaround to re-drill PNR passing with RJ. RJ's been really good out of PNR this season, but the timing was way off against Wake (perhaps a sign that Duke was distracted by this, that, or the other). RJ hits open rollers and shooters, and they convert. Particularly the shooters -- we can shoot bad when Zion plays, but we probably need 35% on Saturday. On defense, Tre makes Coby White inefficient, Cam limits open threes by their Cam, and Duke limits the damage in transition and on the offensive boards. (Note: as Kedsy has noted, we actually did those things pretty well last game, which was lost more on offense than defense.)

[BeachBlueDevil]

I'm expecting a much different game than the first one (I think we all are). One of the things I'm really looking forward to is the play of RJ and him doing what he's done a few times this season.... Putting Duke on his back and bringing them to victory. I hope that Duke doesn't have to solely have RJ be the go to guy most the game and that we see nice contributions from Cam and AOC. Finally, Bolden has played fantastic defense this season but he needs to play one of his best games on Saturday and defend the paint.

[ns7]

Analytics would also strongly disagree. Let me first acknowledge that the analytics on Duke lack good predictive power right now. You've got some games with everybody, some without Tre, and some without Zion. We don't know for sure what we have on Saturday. It is a little more objective than either fan base.

Kenpom has Duke roughly -4 at a neutral site. That would probably put us -1 on Saturday.

Bart Torvik has Duke +2.5 but uses 5 points for home advantage, which I think is excessive. He would thus have Duke -2.5 at a neutral site. A 2.5 spread translates Duke 42% chance of winning @UNC and 58% chance of winning at a neutral site. FYI, 90% was where Torvik had Duke beating UNC at home before the injury.

Sagarin Predictor and Golden Mean put the game at a pick'em and Duke -3 at a neutral site.

Based on the numbers I saw before Zion got hurt, I think we'd be a 1-2 point favorite at UNC with him. I also read that Vegas values Zion at 5 points for the team, so we'll probably be a 3-4 point underdog. So likely a ~60% favorite with him and a ~35% underdog without him.

Also, Vegas still gives us the highest odds of winning the NCAAT at +225. Gonzaga is +500 and Virginia is +650. UNC is +1200, behind Kentucky and Tennessee at +1000.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/futures/

[NSDukeFan]

Not liking how our team is trending. Zion's injury really screwed with the tail end of the season. Usually it's during this time that good teams put the finishing touches on their play.

We've being a barely top 30 team during this 6 game stretch according to Bart. Unless Zion comes back and we return to peak form, I am not seeing how the season doesn't end on a low note.

Historically, title teams have a strong showing for the late Feb and early March period.

Doesn’t every season end on a low note for all but one team? So, your seeing is very likely accurate.

[CDu]

Doesn’t every season end on a low note for all but one team? So, your seeing is very likely accurate.

Not only that, but of course the team is most likely going to have a bad season end if Zion doesn't return to full strength. Losing the best college player in recent memory would do that to virtually any team.

I don't even know that it would require us to get all the way back to peak form with Zion either. If we get close to that once Zion returns, we're arguably the best team in the country again. If we get all the way back to peak Zion, I'd say we're comfortably the best team in the country.

Now, even the best team in the country is unlikely to win the championship. But if we get Zion back at near-peak form, I like our chances relative to any other team in the country.

[Troublemaker]

I don't want to jinx it, but on Saturday, Duke just has to give our average Saturday performance this season. Even if you only count the Saturdays playing without Zion (two games / small sample), Duke would win.

Just for fun, since this is more likely to be meaningless than meaningful, here are all our Saturday games this season minus the Stetson game. For the record, we beat Stetson by 64 (kenpom spread 39, vegas spread 42.5) but it just feels like one we should throw out to me. Every other game is either against Georgia Tech or a team better (usually much better) than Georgia Tech whereas Stetson is the #329 kenpom team.

Source for Vegas spreads: https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncb/teams/pastresults/2018-2019/team2518.html




Game
Score
Margin
Kenpom spread
diff
Vegas spread
diff


Dec 8
Yale
91-58
33
20
13
24.5
8.5


Jan 5
Clem
87-68
19
16
3
14.5
4.5


Jan 12
@FSU
80-78
2
7
-5
7
-5


Jan 19
UVA
72-70
2
2
0
3.5
-1.5


Jan 26
GaTec
66-53
13
22
-9
23
-10


Feb 2
SJU
91-61
30
19
11
17
13


Feb 9
@UVA
81-71
10
-5
15
-2.5
12.5


Feb 16
NCSU
94-78
16
18
-2
17
-1


Feb 23
@Cuse
75-65
10
10
0
5.5
4.5


Mar 2
Miami
87-57
30
21
9
14.5
15.5






avg diff
3.5
avg diff
4.1



A few things:

I expect Duke to be ~4-pt underdogs on Saturday
Kenpom's system isn't aware that Tre was out for UVA at home and Zion was out for @Cuse and Miami
Both Kenpom and Vegas weren't aware that Zion would miss the 2nd half against FSU

[Troublemaker]

Interesting.

I'm too lazy to put it in an excel and then a nice table, but just by eyeballing data, two things:
(1) The 2019 team has likely underperformed on weekday games even though it overperformed on Saturday games.
(2) Duke's other great OAD team, 2015, had the exact same pattern of overperforming on Saturdays and underperforming on weekdays. In fact, the effect is likely more pronounced with 2015 than 2019.

Might be a good offseason project to expand this "study."

[TruBlu]

Interesting.

I'm too lazy to put it in an excel and then a nice table, but just by eyeballing data, two things:
(1) The 2019 team has likely underperformed on weekday games even though it overperformed on Saturday games.
(2) Duke's other great OAD team, 2015, had the exact same pattern of overperforming on Saturdays and underperforming on weekdays. In fact, the effect is likely more pronounced with 2015 than 2019.

Might be a good offseason project to expand this "study."

Maybe because our players are student-athletes, and have to attend classes and study during the week. (I'm guessing that the bolded wasn't the case for unc's teams during their rampant cheating and fake classes.)

[Neals384]

Whew...I have no idea who that is. I guess I'm not an old time (yet!)

Bailey Howell has the rare distinction of being a conference champion and NCAA 1st Team All American but never played in the NCAA tournament. Why? Because all-white Mississippi State was not allowed to play against integrated teams - until 1963. It's part of America's awakening from segregation. Here's the story:
https://www.si.com/vault/2003/03/10/339348/ghosts-of-mississippi-forty-years-ago-a-courageous-college-president-defied-a-court-order-barring-mississippi-state-from-integrated-competition-and-sent-his-team-to-face-black-players-in-the-ncaa-tournament

[sagegrouse]

Interesting.

I'm too lazy to put it in an excel and then a nice table, but just by eyeballing data, two things:
(1) The 2019 team has likely underperformed on weekday games even though it overperformed on Saturday games.
(2) Duke's other great OAD team, 2015, had the exact same pattern of overperforming on Saturdays and underperforming on weekdays. In fact, the effect is likely more pronounced with 2015 than 2019.

Might be a good offseason project to expand this "study."

It's about studying and mid-terms -- so unfair to the players.

Back in my day, things were that much tougher -- we had Saturday AM classes (ending at 12:30P) and took five courses.

[Troublemaker]

Let's hope Tre's good offensive game against Wake is a springboard to him being more involved with the offense against UNC.

Honestly, I'm just surprised that Tre's usage hasn't yet topped 20% during these games with Zion out and has averaged 16.6%. If you had told me earlier in the season that Zion would miss 6 games, I would've thought, "Okay, well RJ will take over as the 2-pt machine inside, and the ball will also be in Tre's hands a lot, and he's a great decision-maker and has Stones blood/DNA flowing through him. We'll be golden!"

A couple things:
(1) If, in an off-ball role, defenders are just outright leaving Tre to ruin offensive actions elsewhere, it makes even more sense to put the ball in Tre's hands. Defenders aren't going to just outright leave RJ and Cam in off-ball roles, for example.
(2) In 2-pt territory, I pretty much trust Tre over Cam in every respect -- finishing at the rim, shooting a floater or short pull-up, protecting the ball, and passing to shooters outside or finishers inside for assists.

Tre needs to shoulder more creation burden with Zion out.

Cam can still be a huge part of beating UNC, but imo, he needs to be shooting more 3s than 2s, and he needs to get his opportunities playing off of RJ and Tre's creation.

[jv001]

Let's hope Tre's good offensive game against Wake is a springboard to him being more involved with the offense against UNC.

Honestly, I'm just surprised that Tre's usage hasn't yet topped 20% during these games with Zion out and has averaged 16.6%. If you had told me earlier in the season that Zion would miss 6 games, I would've thought, "Okay, well RJ will take over as the 2-pt machine inside, and the ball will also be in Tre's hands a lot, and he's a great decision-maker and has Stones blood/DNA flowing through him. We'll be golden!"

A couple things:
(1) If, in an off-ball role, defenders are just outright leaving Tre to ruin offensive actions elsewhere, it makes even more sense to put the ball in Tre's hands. Defenders aren't going to just outright leave RJ and Cam in off-ball roles, for example.
(2) In 2-pt territory, I pretty much trust Tre over Cam in every respect -- finishing at the rim, shooting a floater or short pull-up, protecting the ball, and passing to shooters outside or finishers inside for assists.

Tre needs to shoulder more creation burden with Zion out.

At the chance I'll be stoned for making this comment; That goes on the coaching staff. I agree it makes more sense to have Tre initiate the offense most of the time. Well, maybe not all the time when Zion is in the lineup. But with Z out, it just doesn't make sense for Tre to be off the ball when he's shown that he's not a good 3 point shooter. GoDuke!

[Tripping William]

At the chance I'll be stoned for making this comment; That goes on the coaching staff. I agree it makes more sense to have Tre initiate the offense most of the time. Well, maybe not all the time when Zion is in the lineup. But with Z out, it just doesn't make sense for Tre to be off the ball when he's shown that he's not a good 3 point shooter. GoDuke!

Bill Walton? Is that you?? :p:o

[CDu]

Let's hope Tre's good offensive game against Wake is a springboard to him being more involved with the offense against UNC.

Honestly, I'm just surprised that Tre's usage hasn't yet topped 20% during these games with Zion out and has averaged 16.6%. If you had told me earlier in the season that Zion would miss 6 games, I would've thought, "Okay, well RJ will take over as the 2-pt machine inside, and the ball will also be in Tre's hands a lot, and he's a great decision-maker and has Stones blood/DNA flowing through him. We'll be golden!"

A couple things:
(1) If, in an off-ball role, defenders are just outright leaving Tre to ruin offensive actions elsewhere, it makes even more sense to put the ball in Tre's hands. Defenders aren't going to just outright leave RJ and Cam in off-ball roles, for example.
(2) In 2-pt territory, I pretty much trust Tre over Cam in every respect -- finishing at the rim, shooting a floater or short pull-up, protecting the ball, and passing to shooters outside or finishers inside for assists.

Tre needs to shoulder more creation burden with Zion out.

Cam can still be a huge part of beating UNC, but imo, he needs to be shooting more 3s than 2s, and he needs to get his opportunities playing off of RJ and Tre's creation.

Agree wholeheartedly. I've been somewhat disappointed in how little Jones has been involved at times. It seems the plan has been to give Barrett or Reddish the ball (usually Barrett, but Reddish still gets his touches), use the one big as a high ball screen option, and have the other 3 guys spaced out around the perimeter. But, as you note, that isn't a great option if (a) defenses don't respect Jones' shot and/or if (b) Barrett decides to take on 2-3 defenders anyway.

Now, I think we'll still spend a LOT of the time having Barrett initiate the offense. But I would definitely like to see Jones be more aggressive as a driving threat and passer off the dribble. Because the more he does that, the more it frees up Barrett to be a spot shooter off ball (he's much better in that shooting environment than shooting jumpers off the dribble). And it allows Barrett to do some of the stuff he does best, which is be predatory off ball either as a cutter or second-chance gobbler-upper. And it just makes sense to have your worst shooting perimeter player be the guy attacking the basket - especially when that worst shooter is also the best and most willing passer off the dribble.

I guess the question is whether or not Jones is up to the challenge. He's looked pretty pedestrian in the half court against adequate defenses (i.e., not Wake) since Zion went down. Can he be somewhat effective in a higher-volume role against better defenses? If we aren't going to have Zion against UNC, I'd really like to see Jones step up.

I've omitted Reddish from the discussion altogether because, as you note, he's simply not at all trustworthy off the dribble in pretty much any circumstance. There are times when he pulls off the magnificent. But he's much more likely to dribble it off his foot or run into a defender for a charge. And he isn't nearly the passer off the dribble that Jones or even Barrett is. At this point, I want Reddish to be a mostly catch-and-shoot or catch-and-lob guy (he's one of our best lob passers), not a guy attacking off the dribble. It doesn't seem like his all-purpose offensive game potential is going to come to fruition this year.

[Kedsy]

Cam can still be a huge part of beating UNC, but imo, he needs to be shooting more 3s than 2s, and he needs to get his opportunities playing off of RJ and Tre's creation.

Against UNC the last time, Cam did shoot more threes (12) than twos (11).

Some teams' defensive scheme "invite" opponents to launch threes, and this year's UNC team is among them (57th highest percentage of opposing threes taken out of overall shots, at 42.4%). I don't know if every Duke team does this, but this year's team seems to "accept" the invitation almost every time.

Duke has attempted 40% or more of its shots from three in 11 games this season:

(rank is pct of threes taken, with low numbers (e.g., #2) being highest percentage)

vs. UNC (#57, avg 42.4%): 54.2%
vs. Syracuse I (#5 (tie), 48.1%): 53.8%
vs. Army (#98 (tie), 40.8%): 50.0%
vs. Syracuse II (#6, 48.1%): 49.2%
vs. Virginia II (#95 (tie), 40.9%): 46.7%
vs. Auburn (#31, 43.9%): 46.3%
vs. Louisville (#254 (tie), 36.6%): 44.4%
vs. San Diego State (#59 (tie), 42.3%): 43.9%
vs. Stetson (#98 (tie), 40.8%): 43.6%
vs. Virginia Tech (#2, 50.0%): 42.0%
vs. St. John's (#52 (tie), 43.0%): 41.3%

Ten of the eleven were against top 100 teams in allowing the most threes. The 11th game, against Louisville, obviously had extenuating circumtances. Further, we only had three games against top 100 teams in this regard in which we did not attempt at least 40% threes:

vs. Virginia I (#95 (tie), 40.9%): 27.5%
vs. Eastern Michigan (#66 (tie), 42.1%): 31.2%
vs. Boston College (#86 (tie), 41.2%): 36.9%

We played the first Virginia game without Tre Jones and the other two were blowouts (and the BC game was only two three-attempts short of 40%, besides).

I conclude Duke will once again attempt a boatload of threes against UNC, for good or ill.

[Lar77]

Agree wholeheartedly. I've been somewhat disappointed in how little Jones has been involved at times. It seems the plan has been to give Barrett or Reddish the ball (usually Barrett, but Reddish still gets his touches), use the one big as a high ball screen option, and have the other 3 guys spaced out around the perimeter. But, as you note, that isn't a great option if (a) defenses don't respect Jones' shot and/or if (b) Barrett decides to take on 2-3 defenders anyway.

Now, I think we'll still spend a LOT of the time having Barrett initiate the offense. But I would definitely like to see Jones be more aggressive as a driving threat and passer off the dribble. Because the more he does that, the more it frees up Barrett to be a spot shooter off ball (he's much better in that shooting environment than shooting jumpers off the dribble). And it allows Barrett to do some of the stuff he does best, which is be predatory off ball either as a cutter or second-chance gobbler-upper. And it just makes sense to have your worst shooting perimeter player be the guy attacking the basket - especially when that worst shooter is also the best and most willing passer off the dribble.

I guess the question is whether or not Jones is up to the challenge. He's looked pretty pedestrian in the half court against adequate defenses (i.e., not Wake) since Zion went down. Can he be somewhat effective in a higher-volume role against better defenses? If we aren't going to have Zion against UNC, I'd really like to see Jones step up.

I've omitted Reddish from the discussion altogether because, as you note, he's simply not at all trustworthy off the dribble in pretty much any circumstance. There are times when he pulls off the magnificent. But he's much more likely to dribble it off his foot or run into a defender for a charge. And he isn't nearly the passer off the dribble that Jones or even Barrett is. At this point, I want Reddish to be a mostly catch-and-shoot or catch-and-lob guy (he's one of our best lob passers), not a guy attacking off the dribble. It doesn't seem like his all-purpose offensive game potential is going to come to fruition this year.

As a general observation, Cam seems to do better if he starts with a mid range shot rather than trying threes. It just seems to get his range in and (a) he doesn't have to dribble into traffic and (b) he generally has an advantage (size, mobility, whatever) over whoever is guarding him.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Against UNC the last time, Cam did shoot more threes (12) than twos (11).

Some teams' defensive scheme "invite" opponents to launch threes, and this year's UNC team is among them (57th highest percentage of opposing threes taken out of overall shots, at 42.4%). I don't know if every Duke team does this, but this year's team seems to "accept" the invitation almost every time.

Duke has attempted 40% or more of its shots from three in 11 games this season:

(rank is pct of threes taken, with low numbers (e.g., #2) being highest percentage)

vs. UNC (#57, avg 42.4%): 54.2%
vs. Syracuse I (#5 (tie), 48.1%): 53.8%
vs. Army (#98 (tie), 40.8%): 50.0%
vs. Syracuse II (#6, 48.1%): 49.2%
vs. Virginia II (#95 (tie), 40.9%): 46.7%
vs. Auburn (#31, 43.9%): 46.3%
vs. Louisville (#254 (tie), 36.6%): 44.4%
vs. San Diego State (#59 (tie), 42.3%): 43.9%
vs. Stetson (#98 (tie), 40.8%): 43.6%
vs. Virginia Tech (#2, 50.0%): 42.0%
vs. St. John's (#52 (tie), 43.0%): 41.3%

Ten of the eleven were against top 100 teams in allowing the most threes. The 11th game, against Louisville, obviously had extenuating circumtances. Further, we only had three games against top 100 teams in this regard in which we did not attempt at least 40% threes:

vs. Virginia I (#95 (tie), 40.9%): 27.5%
vs. Eastern Michigan (#66 (tie), 42.1%): 31.2%
vs. Boston College (#86 (tie), 41.2%): 36.9%

We played the first Virginia game without Tre Jones and the other two were blowouts (and the BC game was only two three-attempts short of 40%, besides).

I conclude Duke will once again attempt a boatload of threes against UNC, for good or ill.

This seems like all the more reason to have Tre initiate the offense and use a big as a screener to get Jones into the lane for a layup or a kickout. With White having gotten over his case of the yips, O'Connell showing some improvements, and Barrett and Reddish as legitimate threats from set shots, I want Tre to have the ball to prevent the sagging that was so effective against Duke's offense in the first matchup.

[MartyClark]

I live for these games. I'm approaching this game with less confidence/enthusiasm than any Duke/Cheat game in recent history. Somebody cheer me up please.

[Saratoga2]

I live for these games. I'm approaching this game with less confidence/enthusiasm than any Duke/Cheat game in recent history. Somebody cheer me up please.

Hard to do without Zion being Zion. Our last try was not encouraging and the Wake game demonstrated some of our weaknesses. I don't see coach K making offensive adjustments or even whether he has the players needed to make those adjustments. The main hope is that Cam will have a highly efficient game, Tre will chip in and Bolden will also get his. Jack white and AOC could also provide some points, but I haven't seen any scheme where they are gotten involved to a significant extent in the scoring plan. Our chances seem to be those of an underdog, scratching to get a win.

[Troublemaker]

I live for these games. I'm approaching this game with less confidence/enthusiasm than any Duke/Cheat game in recent history. Somebody cheer me up please.

I mean, what is anybody going to say that hasn't already been said in this thread? You're not going to believe Duke can win this game without Zion. So, here's the thing: Zion could play. I don't think he will, but he hasn't been ruled out yet.

Also, nobody has a gun to your head forcing you to watch. You can always do something else, find out the score later, and then decide if you want to watch.

[CDu]

I live for these games. I'm approaching this game with less confidence/enthusiasm than any Duke/Cheat game in recent history. Somebody cheer me up please.

We will have the best player on the floor, the more athletic team, and the best defender. Even without Zion. We can win without Zion. We would be the underdogs in such a scenario. But this is a very winnable game with or without him.

I like our chances much more with Zion than without. But I certainly don’t despise our chances without him.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I live for these games. I'm approaching this game with less confidence/enthusiasm than any Duke/Cheat game in recent history. Somebody cheer me up please.

Here's some optimism for you.

Duke shoots better on the road than it does at home this year, and they won't play anymore games at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Jack White seems to be over his yips and may provide some scoring punch to go along with excellent rebounding and defense.
While missing Zion is huge, this Duke team matches up really well with this UNC team.
Tre Jones can absolutely cause issues for Coby White. White was just 3-14 for 9 points and 6 turnovers in the first game.
Kenny Williams has been an offensive non-factor this season, which allows Duke to play either Jordan Goldwire to generate turnovers or Alex O'Connell to stretch the floor.
Cam Reddish and R.J. Barrett can make life difficult for Cam Johnson. Johnson shot the ball 0-4 from 3-point range.
Marques Bolden can protect the rim better than anyone else that will be on the floor. If Jack White and Javin DeLaurier can provide positive minutes on the interior, Duke won't be gashed near the basket like it was in the first game.
R.J. and Cam Reddish absolutely feasted on Carolina in the first matchup. I expect R.J. to have another great performance. Hopefully Cam will have a repeat performance as well.
The biggest issue for Duke in the first matchup was turnovers. Duke had 20 in the first game, and UNC isn't particularly good at forcing them. If Duke cuts down on TOs, they will definitely have a shot in this game.
While Duke had a lackluster performance on Tuesday night against Wake Forest, it was only 3 days after completely blowing out Miami. The Hurricanes gave the Tar Heels fits this season, losing in OT at the Dean Dome. UNC also had some pretty mediocre performances at home this year against Virginia, Louisville, Syracuse, Notre Dame, and even NC State. Some of their worst defensive performances this season have come at the Dean Dome. And the crowd has never been as hyped as it will be to see Duke.

[superdave]

I conclude Duke will once again attempt a boatload of threes against UNC, for good or ill.

I could not find Home vs Away splits online (anyone?), but during the Wake game, Espn showed Duke shooting significantly better from 3 away from Cameron.

[dukelifer]

We will have the best player on the floor, the more athletic team, and the best defender. Even without Zion. We can win without Zion. We would be the underdogs in such a scenario. But this is a very winnable game with or without him.

I like our chances much more with Zion than without. But I certainly don’t despise our chances without him.

It won’t be an easy game but I suspect Duke is going to be much more intense on the defensive end. A lot will depend on how tight the game is called. Duke will need an A game to win and an A game is possible without Zion. But R.J. needs help. Cam, Tre or AOC will need to step up.

[Kedsy]

I could not find Home vs Away splits online (anyone?), but during the Wake game, Espn showed Duke shooting significantly better from 3 away from Cameron.

Yeah, but it's a low-sample size stat skewed by three good road games (@FSU we shot 11 for 24 from three; @UVA we shot 13 for 21 from three; and @Notre Dame we shot 10 for 19 from three). In our other five road games we shot our usual lousy percentage. I don't think the discrepancy has any true predictive power for Saturday's potential three-point performance.

[MartyClark]

I mean, what is anybody going to say that hasn't already been said in this thread? You're not going to believe Duke can win this game without Zion. So, here's the thing: Zion could play. I don't think he will, but he hasn't been ruled out yet.

Also, nobody has a gun to your head forcing you to watch. You can always do something else, find out the score later, and then decide if you want to watch.

Of course I will watch. My lack of confidence has little to do with my interest and loyalty.

[Troublemaker]

The flip side of being able to win this game without Zion is that Duke could also lose WITH Zion. (Not that anyone has said differently). While I agree with what has been said in other threads about it being relatively easy to re-integrate Zion, that doesn't mean that Duke will click on all cylinders in his very first game back.

I wonder which would damage Duke fans' psyche more:
(1) Zion not playing and Duke losing.
(2) Zion playing and Duke losing anyway.

(Obviously we'd all choose option #3). I think if I believe Coach K that Zion will definitely be back this season (and I do), then #2 is worse.

I wonder what UNC fans on average want. Some probably would like what they perceive to be an easy win without Zion; a win over Duke is a win over Duke to them. But others might want the satisfaction of beating Duke at full strength. It would help their case for a #1 seed if they could win with Zion playing.

[UNCfan]

The flip side of being able to win this game without Zion is that Duke could also lose WITH Zion. (Not that anyone has said differently). While I agree with what has been said in other threads about it being relatively easy to re-integrate Zion, that doesn't mean that Duke will click on all cylinders in his very first game back.

I wonder which would damage Duke fans' psyche more:
(1) Zion not playing and Duke losing.
(2) Zion playing and Duke losing anyway.

(Obviously we'd all choose option #3). I think if I believe Coach K that Zion will definitely be back this season (and I do), then #2 is worse.

I wonder what UNC fans on average want. Some probably would like what they perceive to be an easy win without Zion; a win over Duke is a win over Duke to them. But others might want the satisfaction of beating Duke at full strength. It would help their case for a #1 seed if they could win with Zion playing.

I would love to beat Duke with Zion playing at full strength. However, I just want a win and I do not care who plays for Duke. I would love the three seniors to go out with a big win. A win for Duke without Zion on our senior night would be extremely gratifying for you guys. It would devastate our fanbase.

We will likely face each other again next weekend and that will also be incredibly intense. It always is. Its about the name on the front of the jersey. Win is a win.

[Devilwin]

No one has mentioned this, but we had better make our free throws..if we get any..

[Kedsy]

No one has mentioned this, but we had better make our free throws..if we get any..

During conference play, we've been a bit over 70%, which isn't terrible. But if you expect significantly better than that, you'll probably be disappointed.

[UrinalCake]

I wonder which would damage Duke fans' psyche more:
(1) Zion not playing and Duke losing.
(2) Zion playing and Duke losing anyway.


If the options are
(1) Zion returns, he plays well but the team struggles to reintegrate him and we lose by 5 points
(2) Zion doesn't play and we get blown out again

Then I would choose 1. It would definitely be more difficult as a fan, as we wouldn't have an "excuse" for losing, and it would hurt our seeding more. But in the bigger picture, getting him onto the court earlier is more important. And I would feel much better about our chances in the ACCT if he is able to get that game under his belt.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I could not find Home vs Away splits online (anyone?), but during the Wake game, Espn showed Duke shooting significantly better from 3 away from Cameron.

Overall, Duke is shooting 30.9% from 3-point range, 327th (out of 353 teams) in the nation.
In 17 home games, it's 27.1%, 349th in the nation
In 5 neutral-site games, it's 33.9%, 142nd in the nation
In 7 away games, it's 37.8%, 27th in the nation

[robed deity]

Overall, Duke is shooting 30.9% from 3-point range, 327th (out of 353 teams) in the nation.
In 17 home games, it's 27.1%, 349th in the nation
In 5 neutral-site games, it's 33.9%, 142nd in the nation
In 7 away games, it's 37.8%, 27th in the nation

It may just be flukey, but that is truly bizarre.

[TheBrianZoubekExperience]

Somewhat OT but I'm heading to the game on Saturday. Never been to an away game at UNC. Will the benches be burned if we win or is that only for home games? If they will burn, I'm thinking about swinging by campus after the game. Never got the chance to see the benches burn when I was in grad school at Duke.

[UrinalCake]

^ typically there are four dates on which the campus will apply for permits to allow bonfires: the two regular season CHeat games, making the final four, and winning the title. I will have to admit that my information is somewhat dated however.

They usually close the campus to non-students during bonfires.

[uh_no]

It may just be flukey, but that is truly bizarre.

can one of our estemeemed stats gurus perform a 2 sample T test and tell us whether we can reject the null hypothesis??????

[left_hook_lacey]

can one of our estemeemed stats gurus perform a 2 sample T test and tell us whether we can reject the null hypothesis??????

I think you would need an ANOVA(probably 1-way) in order to tell us if we can accept, or fail to reject, the null hypothesis when dealing with more than two means.

I'm not a statistician, so those that are feel free to destroy my post. I did stay at a holiday inn express last night.

[rocketeli]

^ typically there are four dates on which the campus will apply for permits to allow bonfires: the two regular season CHeat games, making the final four, and winning the title. I will have to admit that my information is somewhat dated however.

They usually close the campus to non-students during bonfires.

wussy nanny state...grumble, grumble...kids today...when I was at Duke...something, something lawn...

[Indoor66]

wussy nanny state...grumble, grumble...kids today...when I was at Duke...something, something lawn...

Well, I never understood why you would want to burn your OWN benches! But what do I know.

[UrinalCake]

The more I think about this game, the more I think that Barrett is going to have to pull out a James Harden-like performance for us to have any chance. We just don’t have anybody else who can reliably score. Every time down the court, the highest percentage play is going to be giving RJ the ball and letting him create. Given how easily the CHeats put up points on the board, I don’t see us winning unless Barrett scores 35-40. Which I think he is capable of doing.

[dukebluesincebirth]

The more I think about this game, the more I think that Barrett is going to have to pull out a James Harden-like performance for us to have any chance. We just don’t have anybody else who can reliably score. Every time down the court, the highest percentage play is going to be giving RJ the ball and letting him create. Given how easily the CHeats put up points on the board, I don’t see us winning unless Barrett scores 35-40. Which I think he is capable of doing.

You may be right, but with RJ my biggest fear is that he falls in love with the long jumpers/3s. He's not James Harden from deep. He's got to relentlessly attack. And it wouldn't hurt for the zebras to blow the whistle when he gets hacked and bumped. If he drives and no fouls called, he tends to give up on penetration and shoot from the outside, where he's very inconsistent. Lots of long misses against a good defensive rebounding team who can push in transition and score points is not a good recipe. That could get out of hand quickly. The bottom line is, if we dont have Zion, Cam Reddish has to show up in a big way to help RJ. Lets do it.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The more I think about this game, the more I think that Barrett is going to have to pull out a James Harden-like performance for us to have any chance. We just don’t have anybody else who can reliably score. Every time down the court, the highest percentage play is going to be giving RJ the ball and letting him create. Given how easily the CHeats put up points on the board, I don’t see us winning unless Barrett scores 35-40. Which I think he is capable of doing.

A huge reason for UNC's offensive success in the first game was the number of bone-headed turnovers. Duke had 20 TOs against UNC. I am struggling to find it, but I believe Duke did pretty well in the halfcourt defense. That is part of the reason why UNC took and made so few 3-pointers. They didn't have to. When Duke was able to get its defense set up, it was pretty good. Control the ball, control the game.

[CDu]

A huge reason for UNC's offensive success in the first game was the number of bone-headed turnovers. Duke had 20 TOs against UNC. I am struggling to find it, but I believe Duke did pretty well in the halfcourt defense. That is part of the reason why UNC took and made so few 3-pointers. They didn't have to. When Duke was able to get its defense set up, it was pretty good. Control the ball, control the game.

Duke's results on defense were pretty good, period. UNC scored just 88 points on 86 possessions. For an offense as good as UNC's, that's a really strong result. Now, to be fair, a lot of that was because UNC had an otherworldly bad day shooting 3s (just 2-20, with lots of open misses). If they had hit even 25% on 3s, our defense would have looked somewhat mediocre (97 points on 86 possessions). But the point remains that UNC's offense wasn't wildly successful in the first game.

I would suggest that our turnovers had a bigger impact on our offense than theirs. Our offense was abysmal: 72 points on 88 possessions.

[Troublemaker]

Hard to do without Zion being Zion. Our last try was not encouraging and the Wake game demonstrated some of our weaknesses. I don't see coach K making offensive adjustments or even whether he has the players needed to make those adjustments. The main hope is that Cam will have a highly efficient game, Tre will chip in and Bolden will also get his. Jack white and AOC could also provide some points, but I haven't seen any scheme where they are gotten involved to a significant extent in the scoring plan. Our chances seem to be those of an underdog, scratching to get a win.

He will. He really only has to make one adjustment, which is having his true PG Tre Jones create more. If RJ and Tre are the primary creators, if Alex and Jack catch-and-shoot, if Cam stays in-between those two roles, and if Marques and Javin screen-and-roll, we'll have a good offensive day, imo.


The more I think about this game, the more I think that Barrett is going to have to pull out a James Harden-like performance for us to have any chance. We just don’t have anybody else who can reliably score. Every time down the court, the highest percentage play is going to be giving RJ the ball and letting him create. Given how easily the CHeats put up points on the board, I don’t see us winning unless Barrett scores 35-40. Which I think he is capable of doing.

Some of Cam's best games have come on the road - @FSU comes to mind (including a game-winner), and he was instrumental in the Louisville comeback. He could easily go for 20. I think Tre is good enough to give us 15 if he's aggressive, and then we just need our shooters to shoot with confidence and hit. I think we can win without an epic game from RJ, although that would help, of course.

[duke96]

Well, I never understood why you would want to burn your OWN benches! But what do I know.

The better move was to burn other people’s benches...

[rocketeli]

Well, I never understood why you would want to burn your OWN benches! But what do I know.

The bench must burn! The bench must burn! THE BENCH MUST BURN!

[Indoor66]

The bench must burn! The bench must burn! THE BENCH MUST BURN!

I was in school so long ago that we sat on rocks when outdoors. 😂

[jasoninchina]

Maybe because our players are student-athletes, and have to attend classes and study during the week. (I'm guessing that the bolded wasn't the case for unc's teams during their rampant cheating and fake classes.)

I am not convinced that this is still untrue about Carolina's players. I say that because of all the money they spent of North Carolina's taxpayer money to preserve two championships they clear didn't/don't deserve and the overall arrogance they showed when the NCAA showed its usual incompetence and spinelessness in not punishing the clear exploitation of the African-American athletes in Chapel Hill. One would think that the NCAA would have been against such horrendous behavior; clearly they were completely unfazed by it!

[Turk]

The "Worldwide Leader" is getting sloppier and sloppier:

#4 Duke @ #3 unc - 6PM
#7 Michigan @ #9 Sparty - 8PM

Since when does the varsity play *before* the JV's?!? :confused:

[crimsondevil]

can one of our estemeemed stats gurus perform a 2 sample T test and tell us whether we can reject the null hypothesis??????

Not a stats guru, but I think the best test would be chi-squared (i.e. is the overall distribution of 3P-makes and misses statistically different for road/neutral vs home). And yes, it is - the associated p-value is 0.008.

A t-test here would ask whether the means of the 3P-percentages for each game are statistically different for road/neutral vs home, which doesn't account for the number of shots (a 1 for 5 night vs. a 5 for 25 night). A t-test is also significant, by the way (p = 0.015, unpaired, equal var).

FWIW, I'm combining road and neutral games above. Chi-squared is still significant if you separate road and neutral games, but neutral by itself compared to road or home is too few games (5) to have significance by either test.

[BLPOG]

The "Worldwide Leader" is getting sloppier and sloppier:

#4 Duke @ #3 unc - 6PM
#7 Michigan @ #9 Sparty - 8PM

Since when does the varsity play *before* the JV's?!? :confused:

As I recall, we've consistently had the second slot for the Wednesday game and the first slot for the Saturday game for several years. On Saturday, 6 PM is arguably the better slot, since an 8 o'clock game could start to interfere with evening plans.

[TruBlu]

As I recall, we've consistently had the second slot for the Wednesday game and the first slot for the Saturday game for several years. On Saturday, 6 PM is arguably the better slot, since an 8 o'clock game could start to interfere with evening plans.

My evening plans are now limited to sleeping.

[left_hook_lacey]

Lines are out, UNC -2.5. O/U at 166

Looks like Vegas hasn't lost faith in us without Zion. Either that or they think he'll play. 🤔

[Troublemaker]

Lines are out, UNC -2.5. O/U at 166

Looks like Vegas hasn't lost faith in us without Zion. Either that or they think he'll play. ��

Technically, it's just one rogue online book that has the line out right now; they love to be the earliest book to release lines, and UNC money has already come in to push it to 3 and likely higher.

The real "Vegas" openers will come later this evening.

[left_hook_lacey]

Technically, it's just one rogue online book that has the line out right now; they love to be the earliest book to release lines, and UNC money has already come in to push it to 3 and likely higher.

The real "Vegas" openers will come later this evening.

Do they release those lines at a specific time every week or is it based on press releases about injuries, etc.?

[Troublemaker]

Do they release those lines at a specific time every week or is it based on press releases about injuries, etc.?

As a daily sport (as opposed to, say, the NFL), college basketball lines are released the evening before the games. (If you're asking about that one rogue book, they release in the afternoon, so a few hours earlier). The status of a player's injury could delay the release of lines, yes. But I suspect the books will have the Duke-UNC line out this evening before knowing for sure about Zion tomorrow morning; they'll just move the line if necessary later and in the meantime perhaps set lower betting limits on the game.

[Pghdukie]

Carolina is -3. Per vegas insider

[jipops]

Carolina is -3. Per vegas insider

I’d take that one. I think this one could be a beat down. At some point you know there will be payback for 82-50. This could be it.

[Hancock 4 Duke]

I think you would need an ANOVA(probably 1-way) in order to tell us if we can accept, or fail to reject, the null hypothesis when dealing with more than two means.

I'm not a statistician, so those that are feel free to destroy my post. I did stay at a holiday inn express last night.

After doing a one way ANOVA (typically the best when you have more than two groups of data), it returns a p-value of .036, meaning that (with 95% confidence) you would reject the null hypothesis, the null hypothesis being that they have statistically similar means. It is statistically bizarre.

[Troublemaker]

I’d take that one. I think this one could be a beat down. At some point you know there will be payback for 82-50. This could be it.

There's a betting competition on DBR that involves fake money, so no risk to you. You should join and be rewarded for your great calls.

[bigperm13]

There’s really a poster who thinks we’re gonna get beat 82-50 tomorrow and is serious? Take a lap.

[Saratoga2]

He will. He really only has to make one adjustment, which is having his true PG Tre Jones create more. If RJ and Tre are the primary creators, if Alex and Jack catch-and-shoot, if Cam stays in-between those two roles, and if Marques and Javin screen-and-roll, we'll have a good offensive day, imo.



Some of Cam's best games have come on the road - @FSU comes to mind (including a game-winner), and he was instrumental in the Louisville comeback. He could easily go for 20. I think Tre is good enough to give us 15 if he's aggressive, and then we just need our shooters to shoot with confidence and hit. I think we can win without an epic game from RJ, although that would help, of course.

Cam is listed high on the nba mock draft. He needs to show some of that against UNC. His defense has been solid but he has been so inconsistent on offense. Him getting 20 would ease the burden on RJ.

I haven't seen coach K make adjustments to run screens for his shooters. Alex is one of those but rarely gets the ballwhere he can shoot. Screening for him should be an adjustment.

[Pghdukie]

Duke is +3 as of 9:25pm. Vegas has an uncanny way of adjusting their lines. If there is movement of line Saturday am, that will hint to us if Zion is playing ! My $.02

[Kedsy]

Cam is listed high on the nba mock draft. He needs to show some of that against UNC. His defense has been solid but he has been so inconsistent on offense. Him getting 20 would ease the burden on RJ.

Cam scored 27 in the last Duke/UNC game.

[uh_no]

Cam scored 27 in the last Duke/UNC game.

i just don't see why nba execs are showing any interest in him /s

[J4Kop99]

The "Worldwide Leader" is getting sloppier and sloppier:

#4 Duke @ #3 unc - 6PM
#7 Michigan @ #9 Sparty - 8PM

Since when does the varsity play *before* the JV's?!? :confused:

Now that espn/abc has Saturday night primetime NBA games, the 6pm game is the "money" slot.

[J4Kop99]

On a side note, espn/abc has the "perfect-world" dream line-up tomorrow:

Duke vs. unc @ 6pm espn
Lakers vs. Celtics @ 830 abc

Unfortunately both games might be lacking significant pieces and storylines

[duke2x]

I’d take that one. I think this one could be a beat down. At some point you know there will be payback for 82-50. This could be it.

The teams are on a collision course next week with Zion. I think the ACC Tournament game is the one that Roy would let get out of hand. It's a home game for them equivalent to playing KY in Indy or Louisville.

[sagegrouse]

The "Worldwide Leader" is getting sloppier and sloppier:

#4 Duke @ #3 unc - 6PM
#7 Michigan @ #9 Sparty - 8PM

Since when does the varsity play *before* the JV's?!? :confused:

No fooling. Perusing today's schedule of games, I noticed the ticket prices on the ESPN schedule. The minimum Duke-UNC ticket prices are 560 percent higher than the same for Michigan-Michigan State. $547 versus $83.

[Indoor66]

Line on game has moved to Duke -4.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Line on game has moved to Duke -4.
You mean +4...

[Troublemaker]

Cam is listed high on the nba mock draft. He needs to show some of that against UNC. His defense has been solid but he has been so inconsistent on offense. Him getting 20 would ease the burden on RJ.

I haven't seen coach K make adjustments to run screens for his shooters. Alex is one of those but rarely gets the ballwhere he can shoot. Screening for him should be an adjustment.

Do we have any evidence that Alex can run off screens and still shoot well? Perhaps something from his high school highlights on youtube? Coincidentally, I'm reading an article on The Ringer that covers Landry Shamet, who is good at running off screens, so I'm going to borrow their GIF on Shamet.

The skill shown below is very different from catch-and-shoot with little movement. You can be good at the latter but not good at this:

https://media.giphy.com/media/PMA4OG97VFqDmVmuCk/giphy.gif


Line on game has moved to Duke +4.

Hey, that's what I predicted way upthread. When Duke formally announces that Zion is out around 11am ET, the line might tick up a bit more to 4.5 / 5.

[jv001]

Do we have any evidence that Alex can run off screens and still shoot well? Perhaps something from his high school highlights on youtube? Coincidentally, I'm reading an article on The Ringer that covers Landry Shamet, who is good at running off screens, so I'm going to borrow their GIF on Shamet.

The skill shown below is very different from catch-and-shoot with little movement. You can be good at the latter but not good at this:

https://media.giphy.com/media/PMA4OG97VFqDmVmuCk/giphy.gif



Hey, that's what I predicted way upthread. When Duke formally announces that Zion is out around 11am ET, the line might tick up a bit more to 4.5 / 5.

I think Zion is worth more than 1-2 points don't you TM? I'm still hoping Z doesn't play because it's a win-win situation for Duke in my mind. If he doesn't play well and Duke loses, I'll have to hear the dumb cheat fans say, " See not having Zion in the first game wouldn't have made a difference". Plus I think NCAA seeding would be affected if we lose with Zion. I know that sounds crazy, but no one ever said I was sane. Quite the opposite. :cool: GoDuke!

[ns7]

I think Zion is worth more than 1-2 points don't you TM? I'm still hoping Z doesn't play because it's a win-win situation for Duke in my mind. If he doesn't play well and Duke loses, I'll have to hear the dumb cheat fans say, " See not having Zion in the first game wouldn't have made a difference". Plus I think NCAA seeding would be affected if we lose with Zion. I know that sounds crazy, but no one ever said I was sane. Quite the opposite. :cool: GoDuke!

I think Vegas is already pricing Zion likely not playing into the line.

I bet the line goes to a pick'em if Zion does play.

[jv001]

I think Vegas is already pricing Zion likely not playing into the line.

I bet the line goes to a pick'em if Zion does play.

Makes sense. GoDuke!

[Edouble]

I’d take that one. I think this one could be a beat down. At some point you know there will be payback for 82-50. This could be it.

Me too.

We have the best player on the floor and the best coach. Our Zion-less team has seen what unc brings to the table and we are coming off a terrible win.

It's the rivalry... I like our chances of stomping on their throat and leaving that dump with a 20 point win.

Go Devils!!!

[Devilwin]

Zion is out. No chance of a twenty point win. We can win, but our chances just took a major hit..

[22JumpShots]

I Hate the cheats so much that it hurts. Not joking.

[Edouble]

Zion is out. No chance of a twenty point win. We can win, but our chances just took a major hit..

Obviously there is always a chance. My post is somewhat tongue in cheek, but also I am just pretty surprised at the overall negativity on the boards leading up to this game... it's like most of these posters are unfamiliar with Duke basketball and the rivalry in particular.

Posters saying we can't win, that they are unexcited for the game, that they are expecting us to get beat down. Do they not remember 2001, when we crushed carolina's spirits in a game we were supposed to lose? Do they not remember 82-50, when we were certainly not favored to win by 32 points?

I'll take my chances with Duke and Coach K every time.

[wavedukefan70s]

I like our chances with him better.but we gotta play the game.we have nothing to lose.but if I hear one more UNC fan claim that luke maye is at the same level as zion.

[tteettimes]

Vegas spread is up to 5 points now.......you taking the points??

[Bob Green]

My post is somewhat tongue in cheek, but also I am just pretty surprised at the overall negativity on the boards leading up to this game...

You are spot on! Coach K has had all week to prepare for playing Carolina without Zion. I expect a much different game than what we saw in Cameron.

[uh_no]

You are spot on! Coach K has had all week to prepare for playing Carolina without Zion. I expect a much different game than what we saw in Cameron.

ahh yes, short memories. I remember when someone declared our regular season hopes over before our first game with uva sans tre.

i'm not saying we'll win tonight, but writing off any chance of victory is silly.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think this is a great opportunity. All the pressure is on UNC. Let's play loose and blow the doors off. Let's spank em at home. Let's send them scurrying back to Hades. Let's get so far ahead Nassir Little plays.

[Bob Green]

Let's get so far ahead Nassir Little plays.

Good one! :cool:


You must spread some Comments around before commenting on Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 again.

[AGDukesky]

The obvious direction of things at this point is Louisville beating UVA then UNC winning easily and eventually getting a 1 seed while Duke gets a 2. I’m hoping a different chain reaction is created by UVA winning...

[uh_no]

The obvious direction of things at this point is Louisville beating UVA then UNC winning easily and eventually getting a 1 seed while Duke gets a 2. I’m hoping a different chain reaction is created by UVA winning...

duke gets the 3 in this scenario with the worst record.

or do you mean in the NCAA tournament?

[Kjeffrey]

The obvious direction of things at this point is Louisville beating UVA then UNC winning easily and eventually getting a 1 seed while Duke gets a 2. I’m hoping a different chain reaction is created by UVA winning...

I think UVA's 1 seed is locked up. I know their OOC SOS is very weak but their conference performance has been very good. UNC is in good position depending on what happens in the SEC. With a loss tonight it would seem Duke would need to go deep in the ACC tourney to get a 1 unless the committee disregards the losses without Zion.

[CDu]

duke gets the 3 in this scenario with the worst record.

or do you mean in the NCAA tournament?

Pretty sure he or she meant NCAA.

[richardjackson199]

The obvious direction of things at this point is Louisville beating UVA then UNC winning easily and eventually getting a 1 seed while Duke gets a 2. I’m hoping a different chain reaction is created by UVA winning...

pretty sure poster means the NCAA tourney.

Worst case is Duke then gets the #2 seed with UK as #1 seed in that region. I think that outcome is highly likely unfortunately if Duke fails to earn the 1 seed.

[CDu]

pretty sure poster means the NCAA tourney.

Worst case is Duke then gets the #2 seed with UK as #1 seed in that region. I think that outcome is highly likely unfortunately if Duke fails to earn the 1 seed.

I don’t see UK getting a 1. I think they trail Tennessee.

[richardjackson199]

I don’t see UK getting a 1. I think they trail Tennessee.

Right now they do. I'm assuming UK wins the SEC tourney like they usually do. I just expect by Selection Sunday UK ends up earning the 1 seed. I have no rational explanation for why it will happen, I just believe it will.

Pretty much whichever team between UK and Tenn goes further in SEC tourney will get the 1 seed. If UK wins 2/3 over Tenn, UK will get it. I think UK is most likely team to get that done. But we'll see.

[uh_no]

I don’t see UK getting a 1. I think they trail Tennessee.

yeah....this attitude of UK is close to a 1 seed and a favorite for reaching the title game is pretty silly.

With the cluster at the top, the committee will depend heavily on NET, i'd imagine, to sort it out.

[AGDukesky]

duke gets the 3 in this scenario with the worst record.

or do you mean in the NCAA tournament?

Sorry, yes I meant NCAAs and that was the reason I used “eventually”. Obviously a Duke loss means a 3 seed in the ACC.

[richardjackson199]

yeah...this attitude of UK is close to a 1 seed and a favorite for reaching the title game is pretty silly.

With the cluster at the top, the committee will depend heavily on NET, i'd imagine, to sort it out.

UK earning a 1 seed is not looking so silly now. That didn't take long.

[bigperm13]

Yeah, not so silly now. Lots of basketball to be played until next Sunday.

[uh_no]

UK earning a 1 seed is not looking so silly now. That didn't take long.

perhaps i should rephrase and say the assumption that uk is the presumptive next up is silly

[simplyluvin]

Agree with the above...it’s a mess up top. Even more if UK loses tonight. Puts perspective on tonight’s game. I just don’t see us pulling this one out tonight, but we are the best team in the nation once Z comes back, and winning the ACCT brings us back to the 1 seed discussion. 9 straight wins once Z is back.

[fuse]

For the superstitious among us, Jay Williams picked us on gameday.
He’s 1-7 on his picks to date this season. 😱

[DavidBenAkiva]

Saw on twitter, the refs for the game are...

Roger Ayers (ugh)

Teddy Valentine (oh no...)

Bill Covington

[devildeac]

Saw on moonpie's radio futurecast that JD picked up his 3rd PF walking into the myth center and good Cam and Tre already have 2 PF each, meaning the cheats will start the game in the 1+1. And that was *before* reading the above post about the "refs" for the game. :mad:

[richardjackson199]

For the superstitious among us, Jay Williams picked us on gameday.
He’s 1-7 on his picks to date this season. 😱

Then he's due.

[richardjackson199]

Saw on twitter, the refs for the game are...

Roger Ayers (ugh)

Teddy Valentine (oh no...)

Bill Covington

I'm on record saying this is great news.

It's not Mike Eades.

Duke wins or at least keeps it within the 4 point spread.

Go Duke! :cool:

[weezie]

I'm with Mr. richardjackson199.

Had enough of Eades. He's too easily riled.

[-jk]

Saw on twitter, the refs for the game are...

Roger Ayers (ugh)

Teddy Valentine (oh no...)

Bill Covington

Ayers and Teddy are both able to keep a game from getting out of hand, a skill often useful in a game with the stakes this one usually has. I hope they follow through on that part, at least. (Artie says "Hi!")

Evenhandedness would also be nice...

-jk

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Ayers and Teddy are both able to keep a game from getting out of hand, a skill often useful in a game with the stakes this one usually has. I hope they follow through on that part, at least. (Artie says "Hi!")

Evenhandedness would also be nice...

-jk

Teddy doesn't mind antagonizing the home crowd. I'd prefer fair, but you know...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

For the superstitious among us, Jay Williams picked us on gameday.
He’s 1-7 on his picks to date this season. 😱

That's historically bad.......maybe regression to the mean today.....

[-jk]

Teddy doesn't mind antagonizing the home crowd. I'd prefer fair, but you know...

Fair? Antagonizing the home crowd? I'm fine with the latter...

Lord knows, I've been antagonized often enough in Cameron! :D

-jk

[moonpie23]

i feel conflicted.....i abhor the thought of losing to the cheats again. That said, we've got some excellent players as well, and i'm pretty sure they're sick of hearing how they are chopped liver without Z...i hope they go in there and rip em a new one.....

GO DUKE!!!!!

[Mak P]

We have the 2 out of 3 top ranked players in the country. Another top 10. We have enough to win tonight. Its on players to perform and K to implement a game-plan

[fidel]

Whose wooden floor - I think I know;
The Myth has ruined a village, though.
It saddens me stopping here
To watch this wood fill up with crow.

My little horse must think it queer
To stop without a classroom near
Between this wood and diplomas fake
Comes the darkest evening of the year.

He gives his harness bells a shake
To ask if there is some mistake.
The only other sound's the ring
Of wine in glasses (and cheesy bake).

This wood begs for avarice, desire, the weak,
But I have assignments to keep,
And eight miles to go before I sleep,
And eight miles to go before I sleep.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Whose wooden floor - I think I know;
The Myth has ruined a village, though.
It saddens me stopping here
To watch this wood fill up with crow.

My little horse must think it queer
To stop without a classroom near
Between this wood and diplomas fake
Comes the darkest evening of the year.

He gives his harness bells a shake
To ask if there is some mistake.
The only other sound's the ring
Of wine in glasses (and cheesy bake).

This wood begs for avarice, desire, the weak,
But I have assignments to keep,
And eight miles to go before I sleep,
And eight miles to go before I sleep.

Slap that floor!

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

Let's Go Duke! Beat those cheating bastards!


If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[devilsince1977]

i was just sitting around watching some Six Nations Rugby when and a thought popped into my head. "DANG I HATE CAROLINA".

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Big games for Reddish and AOC tonight.

[nocilla]

We have the 2 out of 3 top ranked players in the country. Another top 10. We have enough to win tonight. Its on players to perform and K to implement a game-plan

I disagree with your first statement. We may still have 3 of the top 10 rated freshman, but that's not the same as the top 10 players in the country. I hear people say that we still have top draft picks but the draft is based on potential. RJ is one of the best but I don't agree that Cam and Tre are top 10 talents in the NCAA at this time. In reality, after RJ, the next best 3 playing in our game tonight are on unc's roster.

But I agree with your premise that we have enough talent to win.

[chrishoke]

We have the 2 out of 3 top ranked players in the country. Another top 10. We have enough to win tonight. Its on players to perform and K to implement a game-plan

Those rankings have very little to do w/ college basketball. Nobody thinks Cam is a top 10 college basketball player right now, and now is when the game is being played.

[wavedukefan70s]

Those rankings have very little to do w/ college basketball. Nobody thinks Cam is a top 10 college basketball player right now, and now is when the game is being played.

True to a degree.if our bench doesnt contribute a decent amount and start going down.I'd just aswell would be ok putting the last 5 in.stall for 25 seconds take a shot.keep our starters healthy.no risk.
We haven't had the best luck injury wise
Vs unc.

[Edouble]

Those rankings have very little to do w/ college basketball. Nobody thinks Cam is a top 10 college basketball player right now, and now is when the game is being played.

He is very good against unc though, FWIW.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I am strangely calm. Let's go Duke!

[rsvman]

Oh no, it's Bilas.

[rsvman]

Seriously?

[WHOneedsSOX]

Aww man that doesn't look good..

[BigZ]

Get in the game Zion

[Bluedog]

You've got to be kidding me....

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Ugh...

[ncexnyc]

Out of the frying pan...….

[scottdude8]

We are just snakebitten. Wow.

[Bluedog]

Always at the very beginning of the game vs UNC we lose a starter....UNC needs for baskets to come from the ceiling like Cameron...I realize no others besides Duke does that.

[slower]

who got hurt?

[Bigwayne17]

Bolden.....knee

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Roy didn't start all seniors

[Hancock 4 Duke]

I don’t even want to watch this game.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

House money. Let's go.

[rsvman]

It's a layup line again!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think this is a great opportunity. All the pressure is on UNC. Let's play loose and blow the doors off. Let's spank em at home. Let's send them scurrying back to Hades. Let's get so far ahead Nassir Little plays.

I take my last line back, please.

[AtlBluRew]

I’m sorry, I still can’t stomach Bilas as UNC fan boy.

[Bigwayne17]

Jack still hesitant to shoot.

[rsvman]

Jack still hesitant to shoot.

He should be. The hitch came back at the end of the wake game.
AOC shot a serious brick, too.
Thank goodness Cam is playing well so far.

[wavedukefan70s]

Maybe the Baker legend will start.

[Bluedog]

He should be. The hitch came back at the end of the wake game.
AOC shot a serious brick, too.
Thank goodness Cam is playing well so far.

Cam shooting well and showing aggressiveness which I like, but still has made a few careless TOs. Cut those out and he'd be beastly.

[subzero02]

Cam shooting well and showing aggressiveness which I like, but still has made a few careless TOs. Cut those out and he'd be beastly.

Reddish is as hot as AOC is cold... We could have a double digit lead right now

[WakeDevil]

Rebounding.

[scottdude8]

Cam is certainly making the discussion about his draft status on this board look a bit silly so far.

Bold prediction: with Bolden out, Vrank is going to see some minutes this game.

[DangerDevil]

That wasn’t 3 seconds on Williams, it was 5.

Still wasn’t called!

[DBGoins]

Guy we are winning by 2 with 4 minute left in the first half. I’m pleased right now.

Sure we could clean some stuff up but losing Bolton in the first few minutes.

Good first half so far, let’s close it out

[Bike4Fun]

Cam is certainly making the discussion about his draft status on this board look a bit silly so far.

Bold prediction: with Bolden out, Vrank is going to see some minutes this game.

Game too fast for Vrank

[robed deity]

Very questionable call.

[sbroc012]

that's an awful call on barrett.

[scottdude8]

TV Teddy may have just made the most important play of the game for UNC. Snakebitten.

[AustinDevil]

I’m sorry, I still can’t stomach Bilas as UNC fan boy.

He’s an effing nightmare.

[subzero02]

Guy we are winning by 2 with 4 minute left in the first half. I’m pleased right now.

Sure we could clean some stuff up but losing Bolton in the first few minutes.

Good first half so far, let’s close it out

not even close... it's Bolden

[DangerDevil]

Very questionable call.

How can the trailing ref see that call to make it?

He had to see through Barrett to see the contact. Horrible!

[BigZ]

He’s an effing nightmare.

Maybe he can go shoot another 94 feet segment

[WakeDevil]

not even close... it's Bolden

Did Michael Bolton play for Duke?

[wavedukefan70s]

How was that not a foul on Williams.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Good half. Hang tight! Play D!

[robed deity]

How can the trailing ref see that call to make it?

He had to see through Barrett to see the contact. Horrible!

Not tons of contact and I'm not even convinced he was there. Just a really iffy call.

[scottdude8]

That charge was worth at least five points. I feel like we’re losing going into half.

That said if Cam plays like this we can win this game even with less than 100% of RJ. Bilas was right that Alex or Jack is going to need to step up and make a big shot. And I still think we could get a Vrank sighting if we continue struggling on the boards.

[FerryFor50]

that's an awful call on barrett.

I dunno. If Jay Bilas says he lowered his shoulder, then it must be so! :eyeroll:

[FerryFor50]

Not tons of contact and I'm not even convinced he was there. Just a really iffy call.

It was a total flop. Second time he’s gotten the benefit of that call. Yet Tre gets knocked down constantly and can’t get a call.

[ChrisP]

Both charges on RJ looked questionable to me. Really hope Bolden is ok :(

Cam playing great. RJ his usual solid self. Great contributions from Javin & Tre on offense as well.

To the posters here who say Duke is not a top 15 team without Zion...how ya like us now?

We may not win but I'm very proud of these guys performing at this level with all the adversity.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I was very happy to see Maye get called for a foul on a rebound because he is constantly doing that and normally doesn’t get called.

Nice contribution from Javin. We need to stop letting them get to the hoop so easily.

[Kjeffrey]

It was a total flop. Second time he’s gotten the benefit of that call. Yet Tre gets knocked down constantly and can’t get a call.

Yes but refs have called it on Barrett during the ACC season. He needs to be more careful.

[CameronBlue]

Reddish is playing like a bandit. Big difference in this game is that Jones seems to be initiating more of the offense. I like it.

Bolden, please, it's almost unfair. Teddy V, you are a hack.

AOC, dude, you have to step up.

White is contributing in a big way, but that missed layup hurt a bit.

Great first half.

[DangerDevil]

Not tons of contact and I'm not even convinced he was there. Just a really iffy call.

I didn’t do a good job of making my point.

I agree there wasn’t much in the way of contact, nothing to deserve an offensive foul call.

If the ref was in a position to see the contact (or lack there of) and his view wasn’t blocked by Barrett, maybe he would have made the correct call.

[gofurman]

I was very happy to see Maye get called for a foul on a rebound because he is constantly doing that and normally doesn’t get called.

Nice contribution from Javin. We need to stop letting them get to the hoop so easily.

Please give me hope Bolden can be ok... someone tell me it’s possible. Is it?

[Kjeffrey]

I was very happy to see Maye get called for a foul on a rebound because he is constantly doing that and normally doesn’t get called.

Nice contribution from Javin. We need to stop letting them get to the hoop so easily.

The no calls on him are enraging but nothing like the constant moving screens by Jack Salt.

[wavedukefan70s]

Did Michael Bolton play for Duke?

It was ramsay Bolton. 😉

[Hancock 4 Duke]

I’ve seen RJ loaf on defense 3 times without even looking for it. It’s getting annoying.

[ncexnyc]

Really pleased with where we are right now. Once RJ got his third foul, (very questionable) I thought the wheels were going to come off. Team showed a lot to hang in and close out the half with the lead.

Hope AOC can hit a shot early in the second half to get things going. He's had several decent looks, but seemed amped up.

My only real concern is that we run out of gas, being so short handed.

[duketaylor]

Looked like the first 12 minutes we ran with them, then K cut back to playing tighter D, seems like a gameplan. Scoring went down a lot. Maybe wind them? Just a guess. Maye hasn't done much. Prevent Coby from open outside looks and block the paint. Too many early lay-ups, make them shoot. Marques, I don't know, didn't look awful, but I didn't hear an update. Maybe Joey gets in and goes Grayson!! Either way, no need to not think we can't finish this. GO DEVILS!!! 9F!

[robed deity]

I didn’t do a good job of making my point.

I agree there wasn’t much in the way of contact, nothing to deserve an offensive foul call.

If the ref was in a position to see the contact (or lack there of) and his view wasn’t blocked by Barrett, maybe he would have made the correct call.

Oh, I totally agree. Barrett does have to be more careful, but that one was garbage. Not a call you make unless you're sure.

[BigZ]

Oh by the way that was a clean block by Bolden

[wavedukefan70s]

Oh by the way that was a clean block by Bolden

I thought the same thing .I had pizza going everywhere on that call.

[DBGoins]

not even close... it's Bolden

Auto correct but that’s for the comment 🙄

[Reddevil]

Overcoming the home cooking will be tough. Zion and Bolden out - tough. Barrett with three fouls means his crash the lane game is in jeopardy. Hopefully they can hang around and steal it at the end. Either way, the rematch Friday will be an awakening!

[rsvman]

Great half, but this doesn't really feel sustainable to me.

Down two starters, RJ with three fouls. Valentine on the whistles. Fast-paced game in which Roy can trot out 9 or 10 guys and K will ride the same 6 all the way.

I know it's not our usual style, but if I were Coach K I'd be looking to slow the game down at least a little; limit the number of possessions, if for no other reasons that to save strength and keep guys from fouling out.


A gallant effort, but without somebody besides Cam making shots, we are doomed in this one. Maybe O'Connell can get out of his own head? Maybe Baker will come in and shoot a few? Maybe Jack will make an effort?

[FerryFor50]

Yes but refs have called it on Barrett during the ACC season. He needs to be more careful.

The call it when he extends the arm - rightfully so. But unless he lowers the shoulder, it’s not a charge.

[FerryFor50]

Bolden was walking on his own out of the tunnel, so that’s good. But he’s not returning.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Barrett can't drive cause that guy will just fall again and draw another charge.

[BigZ]

Jack White now can make anything. Missed two out backs

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Barrett is also normally good at grabbing intermediate rebounds but he is playing passively due to the fouls so no one is getting near those.

They seem to want it more.

[gofurman]

Bolden was walking on his own out of the tunnel, so that’s good. But he’s not returning.

He came back out of tunnel ? When. Is he on bench?

[wavedukefan70s]

Barrett can't drive cause that guy will just fall again and draw another charge.

Going to have to.go for broke.baker maybe.

[fgb]

Jack White now can make anything. Missed two out backs

working on a 0-27 layup steak.

[ndkjr70]

I’m getting to the point where i’d bet serious money on myself against Jack white in a game of HORSE. I would hit all 5 standing layups next to the basket, and he’d pick up the letters immediately.

[ndkjr70]

Kenny Williams “sensational and spectacular” defense is just a compilation of himself throwing his body thirty feet on the floor whenever someone drives.

Maddening.

[DangerDevil]

Even Bilas agreed!

[robed deity]

That's enough, Teddy.

[DBGoins]

Teddy is getting a F tonight...

[subzero02]

There was a ref right under the hoop who said that block was good and that douche teddy comes in and calls a foul... great block by Jack. at least Brooks missed the FTs

[ndkjr70]

I hate TV Ted Valentine significantly more than I hate a single player wearing white.

[BigZ]

ESPN needs to fire the producer of this game

[WHOneedsSOX]

Duke guys starting to look a bit worn down. Gonna need to catch another wind.

[robed deity]

Barrett has been a little scared of the drive. At some point, he just has to be aggressive.

[scottdude8]

If ESPN misses the beginning of another play for a useless replay I’m going to lose it.