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JBDuke
02-26-2019, 09:06 PM
Put your post-game thoughts here. Remember - no venting or bashing of Duke players or coaches.

WHOneedsSOX
02-26-2019, 09:07 PM
RJ has been playing fantastic ball lately. Reddish started out well then disappeared. O'Connell found his shot. Tough loss in a tough environment. Oh well. Their guy made the 3 to put them up by 3 and Reddish missed his. That's pretty much what it came down to.

DukeWarhead
02-26-2019, 09:07 PM
Goodbye ACC regular season.

Sluggo
02-26-2019, 09:07 PM
Good, that was the last loss this season.

godins
02-26-2019, 09:07 PM
I hope we see them in the ACC tournament. I hope we crush them by 40.

DUKIECB
02-26-2019, 09:09 PM
Just have to get healthy. Also not play anymore games in Cassell.

DukeWarhead
02-26-2019, 09:09 PM
Paging Mr. Zion

wavedukefan70s
02-26-2019, 09:09 PM
I just realized I'm on tape delay smh

proelitedota
02-26-2019, 09:09 PM
At least no one is injured enough to not play next game! :rolleyes:

Fish80
02-26-2019, 09:09 PM
I hate Turkey.

Mak P
02-26-2019, 09:09 PM
Our starters being run into the ground is what I see

kAzE
02-26-2019, 09:10 PM
There goes the regular season title :(

Les Grossman
02-26-2019, 09:10 PM
Making a mess out of a promising season

Oriole Way
02-26-2019, 09:10 PM
I hope we see them in the ACC tournament. I hope we crush them by 40.

All I care about is beating UNC, winning the ACC Tourney, getting a 1 seed (which we are currently losing our grasp on), and ending the season winning 10+ games. I have no desire to get revenge on Virginia Tech whatsoever.

AceDukie77
02-26-2019, 09:10 PM
What the "heck" has happened to Tre? He is a complete nonfactor out there. RJ can't do it all by himself.

ChicagoCrazy84
02-26-2019, 09:10 PM
Seems like every year we play VT in Blacksburg, it’s around this time of the year where they’re looking for a signature win. Hope to see them in the conf tournament with Zion healthy.

Hancock 4 Duke
02-26-2019, 09:11 PM
That was hard to watch at the end. Couldn't get a single rhythmic offensive possession.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 09:11 PM
What the "heck" has happened to Tre? He is a complete nonfactor out there. RJ can't do it all by himself.

Maybe freshman wall.....whatever....he's gone from extraordinary to just ordinary lately.

ChicagoCrazy84
02-26-2019, 09:11 PM
What the "heck" has happened to Tre? He is a complete nonfactor out there. RJ can't do it all by himself.

Am I wrong for saying Tre Jones is almost a liability on offense?

Dub
02-26-2019, 09:11 PM
Didn’t like the rotations but players gotta make plays. Teams are starting to sag off Tre and Jack isn’t a perimeter threat. We left corner shooters wide open by over helping and they hit more shots than us.

Not really concerned assuming Zion comes back but definitely a work in progress as we figure things out. Win out the regular season and we’re still likely a #1 seed but we’re definitely reeling without the big guy. Look forward to more AOC (purely from an offensive standpoint) and hopefully we can see what Baker brings to the table. 24-4 and still on the #1 line. The sky ain’t falling...yet. On to the next one...

devildeac
02-26-2019, 09:12 PM
29-19 FT and their winning 3 was with blackshear blocking MB or JD all the way down the lane to free their driving guard. Moving screens all game.

stingy
02-26-2019, 09:13 PM
I’m confused as to why AOC had so few shot attempts? And why did we play both of our bigs together? It’s not like we were trying to overpower them inside? Frustrating that we tied it twice and then gave up a 3 each time but if we had won it would have been a steal because we never seemed to really have that spark. Now we’re goinf to be in a 2/3 game with UNC and are most likely behind UVA for the DC regional you have to think. Sure we’ll be ok with Zion but the loss hurts in those seeding/placement scenarios right now.

Coballs
02-26-2019, 09:13 PM
The late switch to the zone seemed like an odd decision and we immediately paid big time for it. Killed our momentum and put us back down 3.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:13 PM
Am I wrong for saying Tre Jones is almost a liability on offense?

No. He is. So is the rest of the team except Zion and RJ unless Cam is on a heater. Tough to see AOC not get more playing time before the last four minutes. We weren't hitting anything. Although, that last 3 that put them up was Alex's fault for leaving the short corner 3 to help. Everyone knows not to do that.

jipops
02-26-2019, 09:13 PM
The better team won. We’re not well coached right now. On to the next game.

scottdude8
02-26-2019, 09:13 PM
No Zion. RJ under the weather. Cam gets banged up. Lots of foul trouble. Opposition needed a big win on home court. All that going against us and this team still only lost by 5, and with a couple bounces has a chance to win.

Losses are never fun. But this one shows again that even when we aren’t playing our best and have a lot going against us, it takes a LOT to beat us. As frustrating as this is, being able to keep games close in these circumstances mean we’re gonna be in every game. That bodes well come March, cause you’re always going to have a stinker to push through.

The schedule makers also were not kind to us over this stretch. 4-2 is not a horrible outcome given the adversity we faced. Now we can rest, get healthy, and prepare for UNC round 2.

Some context and a deep breath and everything will be ok.

dukelion
02-26-2019, 09:13 PM
Poor effort overall....especially defensively.

Shocked at how many wide open threes they had especially with their ability to knock them down.

This team could use a loss or two to knock them back so they can figure things out. Obviously still a contender with Zion back but it still a pretty big crapshoot with the way we are playing now. Lots of guys in slumps, Jack, Tre, Javin all have been offensive liabilities for quite some time now.

I could care less about the seed or the ACC reg season crown......just want this team to reach it's potential but time is running out.

Native
02-26-2019, 09:14 PM
We just looked slow, particularly on the defensive end. We weren’t fighting through screens, nor were we doing a good job of running them off the three-point line. This team is at its best when it’s turning defense into offense, and lately it seems like we’re trying to just conjure offense out of thin air. Hopefully we can integrate Zion back into the rotation and get back to forcing a few more turnovers and getting out in transition.

Kfanarmy
02-26-2019, 09:14 PM
RJ has been playing fantastic ball lately. Reddish started out well then disappeared. O'Connell found his shot. Tough loss in a tough environment. Oh well. Their guy made the 3 to put them up by 3 and Reddish missed his. That's pretty much what it came down to.

He was left wide open. Rediculous. Played most of the game with no energy...again. can't expect to play 3/4 of the game thinking you can turn it on in the last 10 over and over and not expect to get bitten in the rear once in a while. Trae's efforts wasted for most of the game on d. Ugly effort. Too much talent, too little precision. It is a team game. Ima was right. Relied on talent and got outplayed.

WVDUKEFAN
02-26-2019, 09:14 PM
What the "heck" has happened to Tre? He is a complete nonfactor out there. RJ can't do it all by himself.

Not sure why RJ was running the point

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:14 PM
29-19 FT and their winning 3 was with blackshear blocking MB or JD all the way down the lane to free their driving guard. Moving screens all game.

3 called on Duke...

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:15 PM
Was a winnable game, but some 50/50 plays didn't go Duke's way. As mentioned, the 3 by Outlaw and the miss by Reddish was pretty much what this came down to, but the Hokies shot well enough and took better care of the ball. That and Barrett missing some FTs down the stretch hurt.

Barrett had a great 2nd half after being out of sorts in the first (due to a stomach bug).

Reddish cooled off a bit after landing hard on his back on a questionable charge call. (The VT defender clipped him from the side and wasn't squared up on Reddish... and was falling backward before Reddish even got there)

Jack White had a decent game. Bolden and DeLaurier played decent but foul trouble got to them.

The worst part of the loss for me was watching Buzz get interviewed post game and hearing him crying about a missed foul call from last season.

Devilwin
02-26-2019, 09:15 PM
Zion needs to heal quickly. We are not a very good team without him..

JD for Three!
02-26-2019, 09:15 PM
29-19 FT and their winning 3 was with blackshear blocking MB or JD all the way down the lane to free their driving guard. Moving screens all game.

Amen. That was Tre that got bulldozed. Horribly biased officiating. Happens every time we play there. It becomes a mugging instead of a basketball game

Duke79UNLV77
02-26-2019, 09:15 PM
Duke’s season in day-to-day with no timetable for return.

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:16 PM
29-19 FT and their winning 3 was with blackshear blocking MB or JD all the way down the lane to free their driving guard. Moving screens all game.

Blackshear was lead blocking all game at the top. So irritating. And he also fouled Tre on the final rebound IMO. But, home cooking... :rolleyes:

WakeDevil
02-26-2019, 09:16 PM
Am I wrong for saying Tre Jones is almost a liability on offense?

No. Next question?

shjiang
02-26-2019, 09:16 PM
I don't feel really surprise about L in this game. VT can hold full strength UVA for 40 mins in home... I think they are same level with Duke...

This Duke team without Zion is not very different to 2014 Jabari and Rodney Hood team. Highly unstable and can lose to any tournament team in 1st week...And it is fringe 4th seed to 5th seed team...

And Every bigs with 3 range can have their career game VS Duke.... Louisville's Enoh, Tar Hole's Luke Maye, VT's Blackshear...UVA's Jay Huff....Bolden is overall good today, but Duke has not found effective way to defend opponent's bigs...

archand1
02-26-2019, 09:16 PM
I dont ever overreact. But: Duke without Zion is just not very good. It's not for lack of talent, they just cant shoot. I've been in denial, but even with Zion this team should have never been down that much against Louisville. And I didn't want to admit-look how much Duke had to shoot out of their minds to win that game at UVA. This is a talented yet fragile group. Now defenses have learned how to scheme us. Its gut check time.

DUKIE V(A)
02-26-2019, 09:17 PM
I begged, pleaded, and screamed at the TV not to help off of Outlaw. To no avail.

We got outhustled and slightly outplayed. We almost stole one. Probably a just result.

Buzz was like a sixth defender on the floor in the first half.

Hopefully, this is a motivator and we take care of business the rest of the way.

I will not sleep well tonight. Sad face emoji.

Acymetric
02-26-2019, 09:17 PM
Awful game management at the end (should have fouled when VT first got the ball, ~47 seconds left) but the way things were going I'm not sure it would have mattered.

Lost our shot at winning the ACC regular season, which is a bummer but not exactly soul crushing.

Probably need to win out in the regular season or win the ACC tournament to hold on to the #1 seed. 2 more losses (1 regular season, one ACC Tourney) and there is at least some chance we drop to a #2 unless the committee heavily factors in our injuries to Tre and Zion regarding losses. We are definitely a different team without Zion (Top 25 instead of top 3), obviously we are still a good team without him but certainly not great. Hoping we get him back soon, but of course I don't want us to rush him back so if he's out a few more games or however many it takes then so be it.

Let's take care of things at home against Miami, go Duke!

tbyers11
02-26-2019, 09:17 PM
The late switch to the zone seemed like an odd decision and we immediately paid big time for it. Killed our momentum and put us back down 3.

That was a poor choice coming out of the time out

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:18 PM
Not sure why RJ was running the point

Because he was the most effective offensive player down the stretch and getting the ball in his hands was a priority.

Way easier than having him run around off screens. Just let him iso and make plays - and he did.

Hancock 4 Duke
02-26-2019, 09:18 PM
Am I wrong for saying Tre Jones is almost a liability on offense?

Yes. He hasn't been playing great lately but we can't be quick to forget how effective he was against the Syracuse zone. His midrange jumper is an important shot to have in this era of CBB. They didn't fall tonight, but that can be chalked up to a bad night.

indy1duke
02-26-2019, 09:18 PM
Screw Nike and their GD sneakers.

weezie
02-26-2019, 09:18 PM
.....blackshear blocking MB or JD all the way down the lane to free their driving guard. Moving screens all game.

THIS

devildeac
02-26-2019, 09:18 PM
3 called on Duke...

3 travels on Duke, too and prolly 0 on VT despite moving feet on handoffs and 4 or 5 steps on blackshear in the lane as he bulldozed JD out of the way for a bucket and FT, IIRC.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:18 PM
Awful game management at the end (should have fouled when VT first got the ball, ~47 seconds left) but the way things were going I'm not sure it would have mattered.

Lost our shot at winning the ACC regular season, which is a bummer but not exactly soul crushing.

Probably need to win out in the regular season or win the ACC tournament to hold on to the #1 seed. 2 more losses (1 regular season, one ACC Tourney) and there is at least some chance we drop to a #2 unless the committee heavily factors in our injuries to Tre and Zion regarding losses. We are definitely a different team without Zion (Top 25 instead of top 3), obviously we are still a good team without him but certainly not great. Hoping we get him back soon, but of course I don't want us to rush him back so if he's out a few more games or however many it takes then so be it.

Let's take care of things at home against Miami, go Duke!

Duke would have to lose to Miami or Wake, UNC and the first game of the ACC tournament to not be a 1 seed. Let's not get crazy.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 09:18 PM
I dont ever overreact. But: Duke without Zion is just not very good. It's not for lack of talent, they just cant shoot. I've been in denial, but even with Zion this team should have never been down that much against Louisville. And I didn't want to admit-look how much Duke had to shoot out of their minds to win that game at UVA. This is a talented yet fragile group. Now defenses have learned how to scheme us. Its gut check time.

Of course, Baker and AOC three shot attempts combined.

Danke Shane
02-26-2019, 09:19 PM
Amen. That was Tre that got bulldozed. Horribly biased officiating. Happens every time we play there. It becomes a mugging instead of a basketball game

Did anyone else notice the sequence of back to back possessions in the second half where 1.) Blackshear with the ball repeatedly smashed into Javin backing him off his spot, and Javin had the foul called against him and 2.) Bolden had the ball down low and Blackshear just moved him off the ball for a turnover, no call?

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:19 PM
I’m confused as to why AOC had so few shot attempts? And why did we play both of our bigs together? It’s not like we were trying to overpower them inside? Frustrating that we tied it twice and then gave up a 3 each time but if we had won it would have been a steal because we never seemed to really have that spark. Now we’re goinf to be in a 2/3 game with UNC and are most likely behind UVA for the DC regional you have to think. Sure we’ll be ok with Zion but the loss hurts in those seeding/placement scenarios right now.

Because VT was playing good defense on him and he is more of a spot up shooter than someone who creates his own shot off the dribble.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:19 PM
That was a poor choice coming out of the time out

Their worst shooter hit a 3. It happens (against Duke).

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 09:19 PM
That was a poor choice coming out of the time out

Buzz won that timeout....

dukelion
02-26-2019, 09:20 PM
No Zion. RJ under the weather. Cam gets banged up. Lots of foul trouble. Opposition needed a big win on home court. All that going against us and this team still only lost by 5, and with a couple bounces has a chance to win.

Losses are never fun. But this one shows again that even when we aren’t playing our best and have a lot going against us, it takes a LOT to beat us. As frustrating as this is, being able to keep games close in these circumstances mean we’re gonna be in every game. That bodes well come March, cause you’re always going to have a stinker to push through.

It didn't take a "LOT" to beat us. They controlled and led the game from the tip. I think we led for like 30 seconds. They didn't even shoot particularly well and still closed us out with minimal game pressure by us.

I'm hoping they're just tired/sick......we'll know soon enough.

duke4ever19
02-26-2019, 09:20 PM
He was left wide open. Rediculous. Played most of the game with no energy...again. can't expect to play 3/4 of the game thinking you can turn it on in the last 10 over and over and not expect to get bitten in the rear once in a while. Trae's efforts wasted for most of the game on d. Ugly effort. Too much talent, too little precision. It is a team game. Ima was right. Relied on talent and got outplayed.

These kinds of summations are verbal nothing-burgers.

devildeac
02-26-2019, 09:21 PM
Was a winnable game, but some 50/50 plays didn't go Duke's way. As mentioned, the 3 by Outlaw and the miss by Reddish was pretty much what this came down to, but the Hokies shot well enough and took better care of the ball. That and Barrett missing some FTs down the stretch hurt.

Barrett had a great 2nd half after being out of sorts in the first (due to a stomach bug).

Reddish cooled off a bit after landing hard on his back on a questionable charge call. (The VT defender clipped him from the side and wasn't squared up on Reddish... and was falling backward before Reddish even got there)

Jack White had a decent game. Bolden and DeLaurier played decent but foul trouble got to them.

The worst part of the loss for me was watching Buzz get interviewed post game and hearing him crying about a missed foul call from last season.

What a PoS. Their wide open 3 came after blackshear bulldozed MB (?) down the lane so their driver could be free for a shot or kick-out.

kAzE
02-26-2019, 09:21 PM
Too many turnovers and too many missed wide open shots. We're a good team without Zion, but we're not a top 5/top 10 great team until he's back.

devildeac
02-26-2019, 09:22 PM
Blackshear was lead blocking all game at the top. So irritating. And he also fouled Tre on the final rebound IMO. But, home cooking... :rolleyes:

Yea, just like we get. :mad:

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:22 PM
Did anyone else notice the sequence of back to back possessions in the second half where 1.) Blackshear with the ball repeatedly smashed into Javin backing him off his spot, and Javin had the foul called against him and 2.) Bolden had the ball down low and Blackshear just moved him off the ball for a turnover, no call?

Wait, you mean forcibly moving an defender backwards with your shoulder lowered isn't legal? :rolleyes:

Delaurier did foul him on the shot attempt, though. Lowered his arms down. But should have been an offensive foul earlier.

Don't forget when Tre got knocked backwards at midcourt.

VT was getting the benefit of a lot of calls in the 2nd half. First half seemed way better officiated.

Coballs
02-26-2019, 09:22 PM
Duke would have to lose to Miami or Wake, UNC and the first game of the ACC tournament to not be a 1 seed. Let's not get crazy.

How so? We're about to drop out of the top 5. There's a high likelihood that both the Cheats and UVA will finish higher than us in the ACC. If we lose in the ACC semis (to UNC), then the 1 seeds will most likely be the Zags, UVA, Cheats and UK.

duke2x
02-26-2019, 09:23 PM
Just have to get healthy. Also not play anymore games in Cassell.

We will play there 5 years in a row (2017-21) in a quirk of the new schedule. It's a deceptively tough place to play in the "old barn" of Reynolds or Littlejohn lore, but we should have found a way to win tonight.

left_hook_lacey
02-26-2019, 09:23 PM
We just looked slow, particularly on the defensive end. We weren’t fighting through screens, nor were we doing a good job of running them off the three-point line. This team is at its best when it’s turning defense into offense, and lately it seems like we’re trying to just conjure offense out of thin air. Hopefully we can integrate Zion back into the rotation and get back to forcing a few more turnovers and getting out in transition.

This is accurate. Tre is the best in the country(apologies to Hagans at Kentucky) at pressuring the opposing team's point guard. However, when the opposing team has a really short, stocky, fast pg like Beedee(sp?), He steuggles to stay in front of a pg like that.

DUKIECB
02-26-2019, 09:23 PM
I'm not losing any sleep over this one. Let's get Zion back and everyone else healthy as well and go from there. We all know how good we've been and how good we can be.

Kfanarmy
02-26-2019, 09:23 PM
Duke would have to lose to Miami or Wake, UNC and the first game of the ACC tournament to not be a 1 seed. Let's not get crazy.

I disagree 4 losses. Probably 6 by tournament time. Looking at a 1st weekend loss if Zion doesn't come back. Not much coaching being done on the offensive end.

heyman25
02-26-2019, 09:23 PM
Was a winnable game, but some 50/50 plays didn't go Duke's way. As mentioned, the 3 by Outlaw and the miss by Reddish was pretty much what this came down to, but the Hokies shot well enough and took better care of the ball. That and Barrett missing some FTs down the stretch hurt.

Barrett had a great 2nd half after being out of sorts in the first (due to a stomach bug).

Reddish cooled off a bit after landing hard on his back on a questionable charge call. (The VT defender clipped him from the side and wasn't squared up on Reddish... and was falling backward before Reddish even got there)

Jack White had a decent game. Bolden and DeLaurier played decent but foul trouble got to them.

The worst part of the loss for me was watching Buzz get interviewed post game and hearing him crying about a missed foul call from last season.

I think mental errors by Duke and Virginia Tech playing their best game of the season was how we gave them the win. Many opportunities blown by turnovers or bailing Va Tech out with a foul. Hope this team starts clicking and starts playing smarter.

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:23 PM
Too many turnovers and too many missed wide open shots. We're a good team without Zion, but we're not a top 5/top 10 great team until he's back.

I disagree. Duke's a top 10 team without Zion. Barrett is that good.

But with Zion? Unquestionably top 2.

tbyers11
02-26-2019, 09:23 PM
Their worst shooter hit a 3. It happens (against Duke).

Bede is still a 37% 3PT shooter, which would make him a star shooter on our team, and VT barely had to work at all to get that open shot. Swing the ball once. At least in m2m we were making them work harder and make tough passes or multiple passes before getting that 3

archand1
02-26-2019, 09:24 PM
Of course, Baker and AOC three shot attempts combined.

I always hate when people question the GOAT. But I must ask after the last few games: WHERE ARE THE WRINKLES and ADJUSTMENTS!!!!!!!

Mak P
02-26-2019, 09:24 PM
I dont ever overreact. But: Duke without Zion is just not very good. It's not for lack of talent, they just cant shoot. I've been in denial, but even with Zion this team should have never been down that much against Louisville. And I didn't want to admit-look how much Duke had to shoot out of their minds to win that game at UVA. This is a talented yet fragile group. Now defenses have learned how to scheme us. Its gut check time.

You mean that same Louisville team that was up big against VA and VA came back? That's what the Ville does

What you're seeing is Tre, Cam and even RJ had times playing too much and go through stretches where they just play like it. K has ignored his bench all season. Soon as one guy come in, miss a shot or maybe turnover he pull them instead of letting them play through it and we're talking in close games in the 1st half too. These dudes putting up like 37-40 mins, that's not sustainable

AOC only two shots. K needs to find ways getting others besides Tre (who teams are now playing off of), Cam and RJ looks

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:25 PM
This is accurate. Tre is the best in the country(apologies to Hagans at Kentucky) at pressuring the opposing team's point guard. However, when the opposing team has a really short, stocky, fast pg like Beedee(sp?), He steuggles to stay in front of a pg like that.

One of the many things Duke misses with Zion is the 1-2 punch on ball pressure. There have been a bunch of steals generated by Tre pressuring the PG and Zion waiting to pounce once the ball handler turns his back. Delaurier almost had a couple tonight like that, but no one on the team has the speed/anticipation that Zion has.

Oriole Way
02-26-2019, 09:25 PM
Yes. He hasn't been playing great lately but we can't be quick to forget how effective he was against the Syracuse zone. His midrange jumper is an important shot to have in this era of CBB. They didn't fall tonight, but that can be chalked up to a bad night.

I disagree that it can be chalked up to a bad night. Tre is shooting 14/61 from the field over his last 5 games. 22.9%. He's become a major liability offensively and opposing coaches are intentionally sagging off him as part of their defensive schemes. It's more obvious without Zion, and he'll be shooting less once Zion comes back. But this isn't a one-game anomaly. Tre is a poor jumpshooter. Period.

The bright side is that I think we'll have him back next season because his offensive shortcomings are so obvious to scouts.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:26 PM
How so? We're about to drop out of the top 5. There's a high likelihood that both the Cheats and UVA will finish higher than us in the ACC. If we lose in the ACC semis (to UNC), then the 1 seeds will most likely be the Zags, UVA, Cheats and UK.

Because we lost 2 games in the toughest stretch of schedule in college basketball without the best college player since Durant? Carolina won't finish higher than us in the regular season if we win in Chapel Hill, and I would hardly say that's likely.

I mean, you have a lot of ifs, it's possible, but the ACC is really good 1-8 and we played all those teams except NC State on the road.

scottdude8
02-26-2019, 09:28 PM
The doom and gloom is a bit over the top from some. We were never going to go undefeated on the road this year. We were on the tail end of a BRUTAL stretch and the guys were obviously running a bit on fumes. And yet we only lost by 5. This is not a bad loss. A loss, but not one that diminishes the season’s outlook by any means.

DUKIECB
02-26-2019, 09:28 PM
Because we lost 2 games in the toughest stretch of schedule in college basketball without the best college player since Durant? Carolina won't finish higher than us in the regular season if we win in Chapel Hill, and I would hardly say that's likely.

I mean, you have a lot of ifs, it's possible, but the ACC is really good 1-8 and we played all those teams except NC State on the road.

Thank you for this perspective. The sun will come up tomorrow and hopefully in a few days our team will be complete again. Then everyone better watch the heck out!

Hancock 4 Duke
02-26-2019, 09:28 PM
I disagree that it can be chalked up to a bad night. Tre is shooting 16/61 from the field over his last 5 games. 26.2%. He's become a major liability offensively and coaches are intentionally sagging off him as part of their defensive schemes. It's more obvious without Zion, and he'll be shooting less once Zion comes back. But this isn't a one-game anomaly. Tre is a poor jumpshooter. Period.

The bright side is that I think we'll have him back next season because his offensive shortcomings are so obvious to scouts.

For my curiosity, can you tell me how many of those were three pointers? I don't remember him shooting terribly in any of the last few games, and his performance against Syracuse was one of the bigger reasons for our victory.

Kfanarmy
02-26-2019, 09:28 PM
These kinds of summations are verbal nothing-burgers.

Nothingburger? The offense was not good in large stretches.

wgl1228
02-26-2019, 09:29 PM
I understand OC is weak on defense but he has to have minutes. I just don't get it. He is the third option without Zion.

Wildling
02-26-2019, 09:29 PM
What the "heck" has happened to Tre? He is a complete nonfactor out there. RJ can't do it all by himself.


Am I wrong for saying Tre Jones is almost a liability on offense?

I've been saying this for the past 10 games to a friend of mine. He's killing us on offense. If he can start hitting those runners again, or hit the mid range jumper, or drive it to the hole, it would open up just so much more for everyone if he can be a threat to score.

Defenses aren't worried at all about him. If he can become a threat on offense again, man............so much pressure will be lifted off of everyone.

Coballs
02-26-2019, 09:29 PM
What in the world is his problem? During the halftime interview he whines to the reporter that he felt RJ travelled. And then immediately after his team's biggest win of the season he continues whining about some missed foul call 5 years ago. I can't stand that guy and he's a huge reason why I hate losing this game.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:29 PM
I always hate when people question the GOAT. But I must ask after the last few games: WHERE ARE THE WRINKLES and ADJUSTMENTS!!!!!!!

So... Louisville had no adjustments? Hard to adjust in game to losing your best player. Syracuse, moved Tre to being the cutter in the lane and put Tre on Battle? I mean, tonight, we missed tons of open looks both inside and outside, unfortunately, that is my concern, the lack of consistent offense by anyone not named RJ or Zion. Bolden getting 4 fouls was what killed the D tonight.

ChillinDuke
02-26-2019, 09:29 PM
Well, I admit I'm nervous. Context is great and I usually come here to offer some. But we really didn't feel up to it tonight. I'll take the silver lining that us not up to it almost pulled it out. But I'm still nervous.

To see Tre not running the offense, not making many shots (again), and not creating turnovers, that scares me. It hamstrings this team to essentially what we saw today.

Their ability to protect the ball and largely avoid turnovers is what won them the game. Kudos to them, they did that well. But we need to be able to make teams like this not do that well.

- Chillin

Acymetric
02-26-2019, 09:30 PM
Because we lost 2 games in the toughest stretch of schedule in college basketball without the best college player since Durant? Carolina won't finish higher than us in the regular season if we win in Chapel Hill, and I would hardly say that's likely.

I mean, you have a lot of ifs, it's possible, but the ACC is really good 1-8 and we played all those teams except NC State on the road.

We are probably the only team this year that would even be in the discussion for a 1 seed with 6 losses, but we are certainly not a lock to get a top 4 seed if we drop two more.

jipops
02-26-2019, 09:30 PM
I disagree that it can be chalked up to a bad night. Tre is shooting 14/61 from the field over his last 5 games. 22.9%. He's become a major liability offensively and opposing coaches are intentionally sagging off him as part of their defensive schemes. It's more obvious without Zion, and he'll be shooting less once Zion comes back. But this isn't a one-game anomaly. Tre is a poor jumpshooter. Period.

The bright side is that I think we'll have him back next season because his offensive shortcomings are so obvious to scouts.

Yea this could be somewhat of a silver lining when it comes to the prospects for next season. But for this season it stinks. That and how K has really mismanaged this roster.

Oriole Way
02-26-2019, 09:31 PM
For my curiosity, can you tell me how many of those were three pointers? I don't remember him shooting terribly in any of the last few games, and his performance against Syracuse was one of the bigger reasons for our victory.

4/24 from 3. 16.6%. Not even half of his total field goal attempts.

And my original 5-game sample was incorrect, I actually accidentally credited him with 2 extra made field goals. Fixed it in my original post.

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:32 PM
Yea this could be somewhat of a silver lining when it comes to the prospects for next season. But for this season it stinks. That and how K has really mismanaged this roster.

Yea, really looking forward to everyone saying how much of an offensive liability Tre is next season. :p

SupaDave
02-26-2019, 09:32 PM
These kinds of summations are verbal nothing-burgers.

Actually I have to agree - we chose the Mamba mentality over running team plays. The Mamba lost.

heyman25
02-26-2019, 09:32 PM
I dont ever overreact. But: Duke without Zion is just not very good. It's not for lack of talent, they just cant shoot. I've been in denial, but even with Zion this team should have never been down that much against Louisville. And I didn't want to admit-look how much Duke had to shoot out of their minds to win that game at UVA. This is a talented yet fragile group. Now defenses have learned how to scheme us. Its gut check time.
Winningest Duke team that is the worst shooting team. Frustrating loss. Jay Williams had a funny line with Jack White "0 for 30 and has not hit a 3 in 3 months"
I think it is about 6 or 7 weeks. Tre Jones missed so many wide open jumpers as well. Defense better get back to lockdown mode or another early exit is in the cards. Getting Zion back will be a huge help, because he masks most of this team's flaws.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 09:32 PM
I always hate when people question the GOAT. But I must ask after the last few games: WHERE ARE THE WRINKLES and ADJUSTMENTS!!!!!!!

I was not really questioning the coaching...just making an observtaion....that we probably needed more than 3 shots from those guys...maybe it's on the players, maybe it's a combination, maybe without Zion drawing attention it's just hard to get them their shots.

archand1
02-26-2019, 09:33 PM
So... Louisville had no adjustments? Hard to adjust in game to losing your best player. Syracuse, moved Tre to being the cutter in the lane and put Tre on Battle? I mean, tonight, we missed tons of open looks both inside and outside, unfortunately, that is my concern, the lack of consistent offense by anyone not named RJ or Zion. Bolden getting 4 fouls was what killed the D tonight.

There have been adjustments. But offensively, not many. I get losing Zion, trust me. But its insanity to me that the amount of talent on this team can barely keep its head above water. They were down an important player too. I refuse to blame the absence of Zion on this loss.

Duke79UNLV77
02-26-2019, 09:33 PM
Duke would have to lose to Miami or Wake, UNC and the first game of the ACC tournament to not be a 1 seed. Let's not get crazy.

Wish that were so. But, the ACC isn’t getting 3 1-seeds, and we probably be 3rd in the ACC right now. Definitely would be if the cheats sweep us.

indy1duke
02-26-2019, 09:33 PM
Yea this could be somewhat of a silver lining when it comes to the prospects for next season. But for this season it stinks. That and how K has really mismanaged this roster.

Please enlighten us how K has mismanaged this roster.

DarkstarWahoo
02-26-2019, 09:33 PM
Maybe freshman wall....whatever...he's gone from extraordinary to just ordinary lately.

You know - and don’t take this the wrong way - I was thinking of Kihei Clark as a sort of extremely poor man’s Jones during the game tonight. They have similar strengths (on-ball defense, passing) and weaknesses (shooting slumps to the point where other teams don’t even guard them on the perimeter). What jogged the thought loose in my brain was a possession where the Hokies had a big man essentially run interference for the point guard when bringing it up to avoid Jones’s harassment - Notre Dame, for one, did the same thing with Clark.

Anyway, obviously that’s a facile comparison between the two. While the services underrated Clark, there are very real reasons why there were nearly 400 spots between them in the rankings. But Clark seemed to hit the wall hard a few weeks ago, although he had about as good a game as you can have without scoring against Louisville. Maybe part of Jones being an extremely rich man’s Clark was him having a few more games in him before hitting the wall.

arnie
02-26-2019, 09:36 PM
What in the world is his problem? During the halftime interview he whines to the reporter that he felt RJ travelled. And then immediately after his team's biggest win of the season he continues whining about some missed foul call 5 years ago. I can't stand that guy and he's a huge reason why I hate losing this game.

He’s playing up to his idiot fans. Doubt the other ACC coaches care for this, but they’re in the conference and we’re stuck with them forever.

jv001
02-26-2019, 09:36 PM
We had 12 turnovers and 8 came from Cam(5) and Tre(3), plus Jack had 2 for 10 of the 12 turnovers. Hokies only had 6 but we decided to full court press them so they get an easy basket right out of a timeout. Then we go zone against a team that shoots 3s very well and yes, another wide open 3 that they hit. RJ with a good 2nd half but his 1st half was a disaster. Marques with 14 points and a decent job of guarding one of if not the best big man not named Zion. Marques also hit all 6 of his FTs. As for Javin, the poor fellow can only hit dump offs. He's not strong enough to go straight up with his shot. He really needs to hit the weight room. I hate to say it but without Zion I could see another Sweet 16 bye bye. He's the heart and soul of this team and without him, it'll be clanking 3s. Buzz did some good coaching tonight but I can't stand his smart mouth. I'd rather listen to Dickie V. GoDuke!

bullettoothtony
02-26-2019, 09:36 PM
Duke would have to lose to Miami or Wake, UNC and the first game of the ACC tournament to not be a 1 seed. Let's not get crazy.


That's not true.

If we beat Wake and Miami, but lose to Carolina in Chapel Hill, then lose to Carolina in the ACC Tournament (if higher seeds advance), in what world would we get a #1 seed over Carolina?

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:36 PM
We have 4 losses. 2 to top 10 teams, one in which we lost the best player in the first minute. One other loss was to a top 15 team without that same best player (without Robinson, they're not that good I'll concede) on the road in a tough place to play at the end of the toughest 6 game stretch any team has faced in college basketball this year by a mile (UVA had a tough time there too, and it took a horrid shooting night for VT to lose that game), and one without 2 STARTERS (people forget Cam didn't play that game either).

I mean, I don't really see the problem. Maybe we lose one more before the tournament, maybe 2, but jeez, 6 losses when you get all that together, I mean, I'll take that.

Zion maks a lot of our issues and he's coming back.

Let's not get crazy.

CoachJ10
02-26-2019, 09:38 PM
He’s playing up to his idiot fans. Doubt the other ACC coaches care for this, but they’re in the conference and we’re stuck with them forever.

It is a disgrace what Buzz does on the court. He literally is a 6th defender with how far out on the court he is the entire game.

It is absurd that Swofford and co. have not done anything aboit this. They were several times in the game that he impacted a Duke player with his presence.

Oriole Way
02-26-2019, 09:38 PM
Coach K is obviously the GOAT, but wow, what on earth was he thinking going to a zone against such a good 3-point shooting team with the score tied at 70? I guess just the foul trouble that Reddish and Bolden were in?

CDu
02-26-2019, 09:39 PM
Well, that sucked. I thought we played decent half-court defense for most of the game. But we gave away a few too many transition buckets due to sloppy ball handling and falling asleep on long rebounds. That is a no-no. And we gave them a free look at a 3 on a zone possession out of a timeout (news flash: Va Tech has killed zones this season).

Barrett had a rough first and a monster second. Cam had a monster first and a rough second. If only one of them could have been on in both halves. Unfortunately, our third freshman starter had a rough offensive night all around. Jones has really fallen off as a PG lately, to the point that he is spending a lot of time off Ball now. Which is suboptimal as he can’t shoot. What a tough stretch it has been for Jones, and Zion’s absence is really exposing him in a bad way right now.

I thought Jack White played a fantastic game with the exception of the shooting. But he took the open looks, so that is a step forward. O’Connell drilled his two looks, but made a number of mistakes helping off shooters on defense. If we could infuse his shot into White, we would be awesome. Alas...

Phenomenal game from Bolden. He really gave us a spark. He made some defensive gaffes, but this was as assertive offensively as I can remember him. Hopefully a confidence booster for him.

Baker came in for a minute or two, shot an air ball, and checked back out. Early returns on the burning of the redshirt not so hot. But, there is still time. But it sure hasn’t looked promising so far.

Frustrating that we likely won’t win the ACC regular season and will now likely have to face both UNC and UVa to win the ACC title. Stupid injuries. The downside of the one-and-done era and Coach K’s season-to-season molding of the team into a single, year-specific philosophy is that we have no margin for error with injuries. If we stay healthy, that is fine, but we just never seem to stay healthy. Hopefully Zion comes back soon. The ACC title is still a possibility if/when he returns, but the path to it just got much tougher. And we can still win the NCAA title. But it sure looks like one of our goals is out the window.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:40 PM
We have 4 losses. 2 to top 10 teams, one in which we lost the best player in the first minute. One other loss was to a top 15 team without that same best player (without Robinson, they're not that good I'll concede) on the road in a tough place to play at the end of the toughest 6 game stretch any team has faced in college basketball this year by a mile (UVA had a tough time there too, and it took a horrid shooting night for VT to lose that game), and one without 2 STARTERS (people forget Cam didn't play that game either).

I mean, I don't really see the problem. Maybe we lose one more before the tournament, maybe 2, but jeez, 6 losses when you get all that together, I mean, I'll take that.

Zion maks a lot of our issues and he's coming back.

Let's not get crazy.

Plus, maybe Carolina doesn't beat Syracuse tonight, which I'm sure would make everyone here a lot happier.

CDu
02-26-2019, 09:40 PM
That's not true.

If we beat Wake and Miami, but lose to Carolina in Chapel Hill, then lose to Carolina in the ACC Tournament (if higher seeds advance), in what world would we get a #1 seed over Carolina?

Depends on whether one is talking NCAA 1 seed or ACC 1 seed.

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:40 PM
Coach K is obviously the GOAT, but wow, what on earth was he thinking going to a zone against such a good 3-point shooting team with the score tied at 70? I guess just the foul trouble that Reddish and Bolden were in?

Had to be the foul trouble, but they were also getting beat in man pretty easily, too, at times. Defense just didn't seem great tonight. I'm curious to see what the statheads say about the points per possession.

Acymetric
02-26-2019, 09:41 PM
He’s playing up to his idiot fans. Doubt the other ACC coaches care for this, but they’re in the conference and we’re stuck with them forever.

That's just a VT thing. Pretty sure they call it the Greenberg Special.

Danke Shane
02-26-2019, 09:41 PM
He’s playing up to his idiot fans. Doubt the other ACC coaches care for this, but they’re in the conference and we’re stuck with them forever.

I can't stand that *every* possession he's 3 paces inbounds waving his arms as if he's a sixth man on defense. That play where Tre got in trouble and coughed it up by the coach's box, the coach was practically there to make the pass up court himself, he was already in-freaking-bounds over top the players. Yet the refs just casually wave him back every couple plays, no big deal.

CoachJ10
02-26-2019, 09:41 PM
Owes Cam, RJ and Ques about 10 more FTA.

Mak P
02-26-2019, 09:41 PM
Honestly we're lucky our next 2 are at home against much inferior competition. The paint is wide open without Zion

archand1
02-26-2019, 09:41 PM
Winningest Duke team that is the worst shooting team. Frustrating loss. Jay Williams had a funny line with Jack White "0 for 30 and has not hit a 3 in 3 months"
I think it is about 6 or 7 weeks. Tre Jones missed so many wide open jumpers as well. Defense better get back to lockdown mode or another early exit is in the cards. Getting Zion back will be a huge help, because he masks most of this team's flaws.

You hit my point out of the park. Its puzzling to me. I'm not being negative- I just cant put my finger on it. How a team with this type of resume sometimes fails the eye test is baffling. I just know this group has looked very mortal lately, even prior to Zion. I agree he masks many flaws because he is just THAT good.

dyedwab
02-26-2019, 09:41 PM
Coach K is obviously the GOAT, but wow, what on earth was he thinking going to a zone against such a good 3-point shooting team with the score tied at 70? I guess just the foul trouble that Reddish and Bolden were in?

That was my take - two players we needed on the floor coming out of time out and not wanting to risk fouling one of them out.

This was not an enjoyable game at all. We didn't turn them over - and that's why we lost. Everything else, to me, is just commentary.

Also, while there is no team I'd rather beat the Carolina, there is no other team I want to blow out of the gym than Virginia Tech

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:42 PM
That's just a VT thing. Pretty sure they call it the Greenberg Special.

Their fanbase is like a dumbed down version of NC State's. Constant whining about every call.

Oriole Way
02-26-2019, 09:42 PM
We have 4 losses. 2 to top 10 teams, one in which we lost the best player in the first minute. One other loss was to a top 15 team without that same best player (without Robinson, they're not that good I'll concede) on the road in a tough place to play at the end of the toughest 6 game stretch any team has faced in college basketball this year by a mile (UVA had a tough time there too, and it took a horrid shooting night for VT to lose that game), and one without 2 STARTERS (people forget Cam didn't play that game either).

I mean, I don't really see the problem. Maybe we lose one more before the tournament, maybe 2, but jeez, 6 losses when you get all that together, I mean, I'll take that.

Zion maks a lot of our issues and he's coming back.

Let's not get crazy.

The issue is that we now have no margin for error once we get Zion back. If we lose to UNC on the road and lose in the ACC Tournament, we're a 2-seed. Even with the committee considering the team's various injuries. Getting a 2-seed would be a real shame given how great this team has played at full strength.

Tonight was a winnable game, but poor defense, mediocre rotations and a lack of adjustments offensively (specifically failing to respond to how Buzz Williams sagged off of Tre and killed our ability to penetrate and create good spacing) really hurt our chances.

KandG
02-26-2019, 09:44 PM
Beaten by a well-coached team that hit all our weaknesses without Zion. Good guards/wings that knew how to take care of the ball, drive and kick to outside shooters, plus a mobile big man that could put the ball on the floor and get past our bigs.

Still felt like the game was in our hands, but at 59 all, we go to a zone out of the timeout and immediately give up a wide open corner 3. That was pretty much the whole game. Every time we got close, tied, or took the briefest of leads, they immediately countered with an easy basket, a three or a three point play. The last three given up to Outlaw was just bad fundamental defense, forgetting about their best corner shooter one pass away.

All will be well once we get Zion back at full health, but in the meantime, I'd love to see more creative approaches on offense to the "don't guard Tre Jones" defense that's in vogue with all our opponents. V Tech's defense was so skewed toward RJ and Cam, I swear it looked like a box and one or triangle and two at various points.

Also, reinforcing a recent point made through Kedsy's recent statistical breakdowns, we're just not forcing turnovers and getting points off of them, even going back as far as the Louisville game. (lost in our crazy comeback in that game was the fact that their starting PG Christen Cunningham had 10 assists and only 2 turnovers midway through the 2nd half, before they fell apart against our press). Tonight, Alexander-Walker, Bede and Hill combined for 11 assists and only 2 turnovers, and their team as a whole only had 6 TOs.

By contrast, Cam and Tre had 8 turnovers combined. Credit to Virginia Tech for making it very uncomfortable for us to run our offense (though RJ's stomach-bug induced passiveness in the first half contributed a bit to that).

Jack still has the missed three pointer streak in his head...he needs one to drop so badly. But I thought he was good tonight until that late turnover on the drive -- super active on defense and on the boards. I think K still believes in him and if he could have just gotten a couple of more baskets to drop, we might have seized momentum sooner, instead of being constantly behind.

I generally don't question the coaches' decisions because they're the coaches and I'm a guy on the Internet, but I wish K had tried the press sooner with Goldwire. By the time K tried it, we were already in the bonus so the press didn't have as much bite. In fairness, no Zion at the back of the press would have made it tough to sustain regardless.

Buzz coached a fantastic game, but I'm with those who thought his postgame interview was incredibly classless. Gloating over a big win would have been better than whining incoherently about a call that didn't go his way that's still in his head.

Looking forward to exhaling a little with some (hopefully much) easier home games where our support guys get more playing time, and we can start a new winning streak.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 09:44 PM
Honestly we're lucky our next 2 are at home against much inferior competition. The paint is wide open without Zion

THIS.....as an example, Alex got caught off of the shooters in the corners when there was a breakdown off the dribble....with Zion patrolling inside, some of this trouble is alleviated.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:45 PM
Cam missed a 3 to tie it. It went in and out. The issues/problems from this game would be the exact same if he makes that shot, we steal the inbounds, hit a layup and win. Except then, everyone would be lauding RJ's "mamba mentality" and the freshmen would have really stepped up, K would have made great adjustments etc. etc. etc.

The main point is that we will get the best player in the country back soon, I hope, and the games that we have lost will essentially mean absolutely nothing.

1 seeds are great, but the difference between being a 1 and a 2 this year aren't that great, if that is your primary concern. There are like 7 really good teams. I know that historically, 1 seeds have a demonstrably better record getting to the Final Four, but guess what, that's because they're the best teams. If we have Zion and are a 2, we're still one of those best teams, if not the best.

Also, this team plays really well when it's pissed off. Can't imagine they would treat being put on the 2 line like a party with strippers and cupcakes (Hey Rick!).

I hate losing as much or more than everyone else on this board, but I mean, we're okay. The issue has always been, and will remain, if a team gets hot, can we win while shooting 20% from 3. With the big fella back, it's certainly a higher probability.

Acymetric
02-26-2019, 09:45 PM
We have 4 losses. 2 to top 10 teams, one in which we lost the best player in the first minute. One other loss was to a top 15 team without that same best player (without Robinson, they're not that good I'll concede) on the road in a tough place to play at the end of the toughest 6 game stretch any team has faced in college basketball this year by a mile (UVA had a tough time there too, and it took a horrid shooting night for VT to lose that game), and one without 2 STARTERS (people forget Cam didn't play that game either).

I mean, I don't really see the problem. Maybe we lose one more before the tournament, maybe 2, but jeez, 6 losses when you get all that together, I mean, I'll take that.

Zion maks a lot of our issues and he's coming back.

Let's not get crazy.

Just to be clear, I'm not saying the season is down the drain or anything. I'm just saying that unless the committee gives us a huge break due to injuries we aren't getting a #1 seed with six losses. I don't think that's especially controversial. We would still be a title contender when Zion comes back, we just might be going at it from the position of a #2 seed. If we win out the regular season (or drop a game but then win the ACC Tournament) I think we still get a #1 seed. Zion comes back, we win out and win the ACC Tourney and potentially the #1 overall is still in play.

CoachJ10
02-26-2019, 09:45 PM
The issue is that we now have no margin for error once we get Zion back. If we lose to UNC on the road and lose in the ACC Tournament, we're a 2-seed. Even with the committee considering the team's various injuries. Getting a 2-seed would be a real shame given how great this team has played at full strength.

Tonight was a winnable game, but poor defense, mediocre rotations and a lack of adjustments offensively (specifically failing to respond to how Buzz Williams sagged off of Tre and killed our ability to penetrate and create good spacing) really hurt our chances.

Actually it was the multitude of turnovers at key moments that hurt our chances tonight. As well as VaT was playing...we had our chances to take the lead and expand it. Cam was the biggest culprit here.

bluedev_92
02-26-2019, 09:45 PM
29-19 FT and their winning 3 was with blackshear blocking MB or JD all the way down the lane to free their driving guard. Moving screens all game.

I noticed same thing! Several different ways as well. Once Blackshear was even facing the other direction & stuck his *ss out & practically knocked our guy over as we tried to defend. No calls on that at all. He would have been fouled out...

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 09:46 PM
Cam missed a 3 to tie it. It went in and out. .

Yeah, he missed two late, the rim action on both was identical to my eye...in and out, maybe a tad flat on the trajectory

Coballs
02-26-2019, 09:46 PM
Cuse up on the CHeats in the first half. And UVA takes a trip to the Carrier Dome before the end of the regular season. Safe to say that we're all huge Cuse fans for now.

WiJoe
02-26-2019, 09:48 PM
Owes Cam, RJ and Ques about 10 more FTA.

"TV Teddy" doesn't owe anybody ANYTHING. He wasn't working game tonight. He's a lot better than he was three or four years ago. He wouldn't be working in ACC if he weren't.

Coballs
02-26-2019, 09:49 PM
Just to be clear, I'm not saying the season is down the drain or anything. I'm just saying that unless the committee gives us a huge break due to injuries we aren't getting a #1 seed with six losses. I don't think that's especially controversial. We would still be a title contender when Zion comes back, we just might be going at it from the position of a #2 seed. If we win out the regular season (or drop a game but then win the ACC Tournament) I think we still get a #1 seed. Zion comes back, we win out and win the ACC Tourney and potentially the #1 overall is still in play.

I could see us getting a 1 seed with six losses in one particular scenario. We drop one more in the regular season and lose in the ACC tourney final, but beat the Cheats in the semis.

Wander
02-26-2019, 09:49 PM
IMO people are underrating Virginia Tech in this thread. Kenpom has VT at 11; for reference, Tennessee is at 9. How would you all feel about losing a true road game to Tennessee?

We're fine – as long as Zion comes back in the same form he left in.

CDu
02-26-2019, 09:50 PM
Just to be clear, I'm not saying the season is down the drain or anything. I'm just saying that unless the committee gives us a huge break due to injuries we aren't getting a #1 seed with six losses. I don't think that's especially controversial. We would still be a title contender when Zion comes back, we just might be going at it from the position of a #2 seed. If we win out the regular season (or drop a game but then win the ACC Tournament) I think we still get a #1 seed. Zion comes back, we win out and win the ACC Tourney and potentially the #1 overall is still in play.

Firstly, why would you think they won’t give us a huge break for the injuries? Those are pretty clearly driving 3 of our 4 losses.

Also, there is a good chance that if we get to six losses (which would be nearly a worst-case scenario by the way), there is actually a good chance a six-loss team is a 1 seed. Unfortunately, that would likely be UNC. Six losses is hardly a death knell to getting a 1 seed.

Oriole Way
02-26-2019, 09:50 PM
Actually it was the multitude of turnovers at key moments that hurt our chances tonight. As well as VaT was playing...we had our chances to take the lead and expand it. Cam was the biggest culprit here.

True. Turnovers were a major factor tonight. Cam regularly commits some of the worst unforced turnovers you'll ever see. But that's the downside to a talented freshman who is still developing.

duke96
02-26-2019, 09:50 PM
Can anyone cite what foul buzz was talking about in 2014? As in who supposedly fouled whom on the last play?! Rewatching looks pretty clean to me. So lame to whine about it in any case.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:51 PM
Just to be clear, I'm not saying the season is down the drain or anything. I'm just saying that unless the committee gives us a huge break due to injuries we aren't getting a #1 seed with six losses. I don't think that's especially controversial. We would still be a title contender when Zion comes back, we just might be going at it from the position of a #2 seed. If we win out the regular season (or drop a game but then win the ACC Tournament) I think we still get a #1 seed. Zion comes back, we win out and win the ACC Tourney and potentially the #1 overall is still in play.

I think that's a guarantee, actually. That would mean we beat one definite one seed and a potential 1 seed twice.

Oriole Way
02-26-2019, 09:52 PM
IMO people are underrating Virginia Tech in this thread. Kenpom has VT at 11; for reference, Tennessee is at 9. How would you all feel about losing a true road game to Tennessee?

We're fine – as long as Zion comes back in the same form he left in.

VT was missing one of their best players as well. Someone who impacts their team as positively as Zion does for Duke.

I'm not underrating VT. They are a very good team. But we have more talent and we could have won this game with better effort and better coaching.

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:54 PM
Firstly, why would you think they won’t give us a huge break for the injuries? Those are pretty clearly driving 3 of our 4 losses.


I dunno. I've been informed multiple times from opposing fans that losing Zion wasn't a big deal because Duke has other McDonald's All Americans. :rolleyes:

jv001
02-26-2019, 09:55 PM
Without Zion, Tre is almost a negative for the team. Other teams are just disregarding him leaving a defender in the paint to stop drives by RJ and Cam. Tre's biggest impact on the game has been his on the ball defense. But now other coaches are letting someone else bring the ball up the court. That leaves Tre on a mismatch as we switch every screen. There were times tonight Tre was on a taller player in the paint. Tre, Jack, and Javin are not contributing on offense. If Javin sets a pick, it looks like RJ or Cam are hesitant to pass the ball to him. I guess I would be hesitant as well. Javin is just not strong with the ball. So many things to correct and so little time to correct them. GoDuke!

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 09:55 PM
VT was missing one of their best players as well. Someone who impacts their team as positively as Zion does for Duke.

I'm not underrating VT. They are a very good team. But we have more talent and we could have won this game with better effort and better coaching.

I don't think Robinson is nearly as important to VT as Zion is to Duke.

AZLA
02-26-2019, 09:55 PM
DeLaurier played some outstanding defense and hustled tonight. Was glad to see his impact defensively on the game. Same for Bolden. I disagree with a few foul calls too, but when Duke pulled back to tie, I thought their momentum would carry through. I was surprised Tech set a play for a three, but it was a great call, and effective. It was too bad Duke struggled to extend the D for long threes and it was wide open on that play. That was the dagger. Kudos to Jack too. When he got back on D after his turnover and blocked the ally-oop, that was impressive, but more so because there's no give up in him. I hope he keeps shooting 3s -- once it goes in -- it will be confetti time. He just needs one good game and he's back.

CoachJ10
02-26-2019, 09:56 PM
"TV Teddy" doesn't owe anybody ANYTHING. He wasn't working game tonight. He's a lot better than he was three or four years ago. He wouldn't be working in ACC if he weren't.

Man, my eyes are getting bad, could have sworn that was him.

jjc92
02-26-2019, 09:56 PM
Maybe I just haven’t been paying attention, but I don’t remember a game this year where we bit on so many pump fakes. They jumped at Bede multiple times and he was 0 for his last 11 coming into the game.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 09:57 PM
Without Zion, Tre is almost a negative for the team. Other teams are just disregarding him leaving a defender in the paint to stop drives by RJ and Cam. Tre's biggest impact on the game has been his on the ball defense. But now other coaches are letting someone else bring the ball up the court. That leaves Tre on a mismatch as we switch every screen. There were times tonight Tre was on a taller player in the paint. Tre, Jack, and Javin are not contributing on offense. If Javin sets a pick, it looks like RJ or Cam are hesitant to pass the ball to him. I guess I would be hesitant as well. Javin is just not strong with the ball. So many things to correct and so little time to correct them. GoDuke!

Contrary to what's his face's contention upthread, there is a pretty good fix on the way. He wears Number 1 for the good guys.

Also https://twitter.com/stevewisemanNC/status/1100590333983948800

Barrett was literally pooping his pants in the first half. I mean, come on. Confluence of issues led to this loss. Albeit some of those issues were on court performance.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 09:57 PM
VT was missing one of their best players as well. Someone who impacts their team as positively as Zion does for Duke.
.

Sorry no sale. Not even close.


Without Zion, Tre is almost a negative for the team. Other teams are just disregarding him leaving a defender in the paint to stop drives by RJ and Cam. Tre's biggest impact on the game has been his on the ball defense. But now other coaches are letting someone else bring the ball up the court. That leaves Tre on a mismatch as we switch every screen. There were times tonight Tre was on a taller player in the paint. Tre, Jack, and Javin are not contributing on offense. If Javin sets a pick, it looks like RJ or Cam are hesitant to pass the ball to him. I guess I would be hesitant as well. Javin is just not strong with the ball. So many things to correct and so little time to correct them. GoDuke!

Good points, especially about Tre vis a vis Zion.....

Acymetric
02-26-2019, 09:58 PM
I could see us getting a 1 seed with six losses in one particular scenario. We drop one more in the regular season and lose in the ACC tourney final, but beat the Cheats in the semis.


Firstly, why would you think they won’t give us a huge break for the injuries? Those are pretty clearly driving 3 of our 4 losses.

Also, there is a good chance that if we get to six losses (which would be nearly a worst-case scenario by the way), there is actually a good chance a six-loss team is a 1 seed. Unfortunately, that would likely be UNC. Six losses is hardly a death knell to getting a 1 seed.

I would need to look at the history to see how far teams have moved due to injury considerations in the past. Agreed that six losses isn't a death knell, generally, but there are a lot of high quality teams with few wins. Depending on how those teams fare the rest of the season/in conference tournaments, there could be ~7 "top" teams with less 5 or fewer losses (6 with 4 or fewer) in addition to six loss Duke.

Maybe we get a 1 seed under those circumstances, but we would certainly wouldn't be a lock. I'm not (and never did) say its impossible. I'm just saying that we need to finish really strong to lock up a #1 seed, otherwise it is in the hands of the committee and the way the other teams we're in contention with finish the season.


I think that's a guarantee, actually. That would mean we beat one definite one seed and a potential 1 seed twice.

Yeah, the language I used was too conservative, I'm not being very clear. When I said "in play" I really meant "should be a lock". The 1 seed is still in play with 2 more losses, its just a much muddier picture and depends on how other teams finish.

dukelifer
02-26-2019, 10:02 PM
IMO people are underrating Virginia Tech in this thread. Kenpom has VT at 11; for reference, Tennessee is at 9. How would you all feel about losing a true road game to Tennessee?

We're fine – as long as Zion comes back in the same form he left in.

VT is a solid team- they can shoot and have a very good big man. They are also missing a big piece but have played more without him. Still Duke failed to execute and that was the ball game. Duke has had other close wins this season even with Zion. This felt like an NCAA loss because FTs were missed at critical moments and one or two plays was the difference. VT did not play out of their minds but were very physical. Duke did not match it. Need to be better when it counts . I am not sure why AOC was not used more on O. Perhaps his D was not strong enough. A tough night for Duke. Still a chance to win out.

Steven43
02-26-2019, 10:02 PM
I disagree. Duke's a top 10 team without Zion. Barrett is that good.

But with Zion? Unquestionably top 2.

Top 1

scottdude8
02-26-2019, 10:03 PM
For everyone panicking about a potential 6 loss season: last year a 7 loss Kansas team earned a 1 seed, and that team had a plethora of bad losses and nowhere near the quality wins we have (right now we’re 3-1 against the other three projected No. 1 seeds!). Breathe.

duke4ever19
02-26-2019, 10:04 PM
Actually I have to agree - we chose the Mamba mentality over running team plays. The Mamba lost.

I'm glad you understand what this verbiage means. Perhaps you can translate it for me and maybe even reveal how a fan watching a game at home can possibly know that the team relied on talent."

I'm going to assume that for the original poster "relying on talent" is bad, because it's used as a reason for losing. But I don't think relying on talent is actually bad, but I must also admit that I don't really know what it would look like for a player to rely on talent vs. not rely on talent. Is not relying on talent another way of saying they are selfish?

I'm thinking that what is actually meant is "we relied only on talent," because then the statement becomes exclusionary of other reasons, which allows us to get at what "relying on talent" means.

Does "relying on talent" necessarily exclude "playing together," or are they mutually exclusive? What is another way of writing "we relied too much on talent, which is why we lost?"

jv001
02-26-2019, 10:05 PM
Contrary to what's his face's contention upthread, there is a pretty good fix on the way. He wears Number 1 for the good guys.

Also https://twitter.com/stevewisemanNC/status/1100590333983948800

Barrett was literally pooping his pants in the first half. I mean, come on. Confluence of issues led to this loss. Albeit some of those issues were on court performance.

You did see that I said without Zion to begin my post. However we still have work to do because Zion can't do it all. Teams will still not guard Tre, so a different offensive set would help. Zion can't shoot other players 3s, unless I'm missing a new rule just put into college basketball. Zion can't make Javin stronger and he can't stop other players weak turnovers. I'm just saying this team is good enough to win #6 but not playing like they are now. And from day one Coach K has told this team that's their goal. GoDuke!

Kjeffrey
02-26-2019, 10:07 PM
We will play there 5 years in a row (2017-21) in a quirk of the new schedule. It's a deceptively tough place to play in the "old barn" of Reynolds or Littlejohn lore, but we should have found a way to win tonight.

It's particularly challenging to win there when the home team spends the entire season preparing for that one game. If only the Hokies could manage that much effort against the rest of their opponents....

gofurman
02-26-2019, 10:07 PM
Not sure why RJ was running the point

Where are the turnovers ? They don't even have their PG. I am really asking as I don't always see all the small things - what are they doing or we not doing to generate turnovers and run outs?

Saratoga2
02-26-2019, 10:09 PM
No. He is. So is the rest of the team except Zion and RJ unless Cam is on a heater. Tough to see AOC not get more playing time before the last four minutes. We weren't hitting anything. Although, that last 3 that put them up was Alex's fault for leaving the short corner 3 to help. Everyone knows not to do that.

Really all night long we were leaving their 3 point shooters wide open and they were hitting a high percentage of them. The last one AOC was on the floor and should have guarded but on many others there was a U pick em of our players that weren't covering their shooters. It seems more like a basic flaw in our defense than something one player did wrong.

devildeac
02-26-2019, 10:10 PM
It is a disgrace what Buzz does on the court. He literally is a 6th defender with how far out on the court he is the entire game.

It is absurd that Swofford and co. have not done anything aboit this. They were several times in the game that he impacted a Duke player with his presence.

I watch very few other acc games. Does he pull this @#$% against everybody or just get away with it because it's at home and against Duke?

DarkstarWahoo
02-26-2019, 10:10 PM
I watch very few other acc games. Does he pull this @#$% against everybody or just get away with it because it's at home and against Duke?

It’s every game.

devildeac
02-26-2019, 10:11 PM
Their fanbase is like a dumbed down version of NC State's. Constant whining about every call.

Soooo, about loovil level or f$u?

Steven43
02-26-2019, 10:12 PM
Nothingburger? The offense was not good in large stretches.
You’ve got to admit “nothingburger” is a funny word. Reading it twice now on this thread has gotten my appetite going. Need something to take my mind off this game for a bit. I’m thinking whiskey-aged steak sandwich.

bigperm13
02-26-2019, 10:13 PM
With every game the narrative changes on this team but this board is consistently embarrassing with the post game threads. 2015 was worse but this year is creeping up. That team ended up with 4 losses but it seemed like 24 on this board.

CoachJ10
02-26-2019, 10:14 PM
Your ACC officials.

rsvman
02-26-2019, 10:15 PM
Sorry to say that I think we got outcoached tonight. Every attempt at a drive was met with an immediate double team, leaving poor shooters wide open. Brilliant defensive game plan. Works all day every day.

I was really hoping to see coach bench Jones for a bit. Maybe even play Baker and O'Connell at the same time. Force them to play straight up D. They wouldn't even necessarily have to make shots. They would just have to be a threat to potentially make shots. That would've allowed RJ room to operate.

Missed free throws by RJ can be chalked up to his illness. Bolden leaving his feet in an attempt to block a shot by a guy who looked to be about 5'11", leading to two free throws, and the two giveaway three pointers that have been discussed ad nauseum are harder to excuse.

Tough, tough loss.

FerryFor50
02-26-2019, 10:15 PM
Your ACC officials.

I noticed the same. 15 fouls. In a zone defense. Against a team that has taken 17 of their 31 shots from 3.

Oriole Way
02-26-2019, 10:15 PM
Your ACC officials.

Wow, you're not kidding. 21 free throws to Syracuse's 5. In a game where Syracuse was leading at halftime.

ncexnyc
02-26-2019, 10:16 PM
A really tough loss in a game where we just couldn't get over the hump. You've got to give VT credit for hanging tough and answering every challenge we made.

Several head scratching moments in tonight's game. The switch to zone, which promptly led to a VT 3pt basket. Having both Javin and Bolden on the court at the same time. The lack of playing time for Baker, after you justify throwing the red shirt out the window, because we need shooting.

I'm very impressed with RJ's effort tonight. It would have been easy for him to take a pass and sit this one out, but he hung in there and gutted it out for the team.

I normally don't like talking about officiating, but geez. How many times did Blackshear just drop his shoulder into the defenders chest and bull his way to the basket?

I'm not buying into all the doom and gloom I'm seeing here tonight. Nobody, and I mean nobody is feeling sorry for a team that still has 3 elite recruits suiting up for them every night. The onus is on Coach K and his staff to come up with a system that maximizes the strengths of these 3 players.

duke4ever19
02-26-2019, 10:17 PM
You’ve got to admit “nothingburger” is a funny word. Reading it twice now on this thread has gotten my appetite going. Need something to take my mind off this game for a bit. I’m thinking whiskey-aged steak sandwich.

Fan-speak after a game is mostly made up of verbal nothing-burgers. It's like the same five-to-six excuses/reasons for losing, just repackaged as another tried-and-true sentence.

It would be fairly easy to write a list of fifty reasons fans give for a loss and show how they all are variations on about two or three actual reasons, while the rest are basically vacuous, or rely on some sort of psychological insight into a team's "collective consciousness" which only some sort of deity could know. Most of these don't even make enough sense to reach that level.

jv001
02-26-2019, 10:18 PM
A really tough loss in a game where we just couldn't get over the hump. You've got to give VT credit for hanging tough and answering every challenge we made.

Several head scratching moments in tonight's game. The switch to zone, which promptly led to a VT 3pt basket. Having both Javin and Bolden on the court at the same time. The lack of playing time for Baker, after you justify throwing the red shirt out the window, because we need shooting.

I'm very impressed with RJ's effort tonight. It would have been easy for him to take a pass and sit this one out, but he hung in there and gutted it out for the team.

I normally don't like talking about officiating, but geez. How many times did Blackshear just drop his shoulder into the defenders chest and bull his way to the basket?

I'm not buying into all the doom and gloom I'm seeing here tonight. Nobody, and I mean nobody is feeling sorry for a team that still has 3 elite recruits suiting up for them every night. The onus is on Coach K and his staff to come up with a system that maximizes the strengths of these 3 players.

The truth has been spoken. GoDuke!

devildeac
02-26-2019, 10:19 PM
It’s every game.

Thanks. Happy y'all beat them.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 10:24 PM
Several head scratching moments in tonight's game...... The lack of playing time for Baker, after you justify throwing the red shirt out the window, because we need shooting.

I'm very impressed with RJ's effort tonight. It would have been easy for him to take a pass and sit this one out, but he hung in there and gutted it out for the team.

I normally don't like talking about officiating, but geez. How many times did Blackshear just drop his shoulder into the defenders chest and bull his way to the basket?

I'm not buying into all the doom and gloom I'm seeing here tonight. Nobody, and I mean nobody is feeling sorry for a team that still has 3 elite recruits suiting up for them every night. The onus is on Coach K and his staff to come up with a system that maximizes the strengths of these 3 players.

Yep
Yep
Yep
Agreed also

Steven43
02-26-2019, 10:24 PM
Nobody, and I mean nobody is feeling sorry for a team that still has 3 elite recruits suiting up for them every night. The onus is on Coach K and his staff to come up with a system that maximizes the strengths of these 3 players.
I think it’s become fairly clear by now that Cam probably should have been closer to the 10-20 range in the composite high school recruiting rankings, NBA mock drafts be damned.

devildeac
02-26-2019, 10:24 PM
Your ACC officials.


I noticed the same. 15 fouls. In a zone defense. Against a team that has taken 17 of their 31 shots from 3.


Wow, you're not kidding. 21 free throws to Syracuse's 5. In a game where Syracuse was leading at halftime.

Mere coincidence. Move along folks. Nothing to see here. The Luke Maye effect.

:mad::mad:

jipops
02-26-2019, 10:27 PM
Where are the turnovers ? They don't even have their PG. I am really asking as I don't always see all the small things - what are they doing or we not doing to generate turnovers and run outs?

They don’t generate them anymore because they are wiped. K has been hell bent on riding his starters with this style and it is costing us now. Getting live ball turnovers contributed to the efficiency on offense. Now that the ability to turn a team over is gone the efficiency is gone with it. We were never a powerful team in the half court with the exception of pinning Zion down in the post.

roywhite
02-26-2019, 10:27 PM
Blech. Never felt like Duke would get the win, other than maybe a buzzer beater. VPI played better. Gotta give the ACC credit -- there are good players but also a bunch of good coaches who eventually learn how to play effectively against a team like Duke, which has talent but also weaknesses. Not to mention missing Zion.

Need to rest and re-charge.

dukelifer
02-26-2019, 10:32 PM
They don’t generate them anymore because they are wiped. K has been hell bent on riding his starters with this style and it is costing us now. Getting live ball turnovers contributed to the efficiency on offense. Now that the ability to turn a team over is gone the efficiency is gone with it. We were never a powerful team in the half court with the exception of pinning Zion down in the post.

This team will need a magical run and that probably only happens with a healthy Zion. They are certainly capable - but it will take a certain amount of luck to win it all. The regular season is likely out of hand. There is no truly dominant team out there. Duke will just need to be playing it’s best ball and eek out a few close wins to get to the FF.

CrazyNotCrazie
02-26-2019, 10:32 PM
I generally like Ellis as an announcer but he really blew it on the play where Blackshear went by Cam (who had 4 fouls so couldn't really play much defense) and had a pretty nice dunk and Ellis said that Blackshear is the best finisher in the ACC. The best finisher in the ACC was sitting on the Duke bench - you know, the guy they kept showing ridiculously long split screens of instead of focusing on the game.

Ima Facultiwyfe
02-26-2019, 10:33 PM
Our two best players either out or sick. Still, it was doable. That last VT timeout to set up the great play was the dagger. Face it. We were outcoached by one of my favorite coaches outside K. Congratulations VT.
Love, Ima

PS It's still all practice until March. (But its getting close)

Rich
02-26-2019, 10:34 PM
This team will need a magical run and that probably only happens with a healthy Zion. They are certainly capable - but it will take a certain amount of luck to win it all. The regular season is likely out of hand. There is no truly dominant team out there. Duke will just need to be playing it’s best ball and eek out a few close wins to get to the FF.

Isn’t that pretty much the case for every team?

CDu
02-26-2019, 10:34 PM
I generally like Ellis as an announcer but he really blew it on the play where Blackshear went by Cam (who had 4 fouls so couldn't really play much defense) and had a pretty nice dunk and Ellis said that Blackshear is the best finisher in the ACC. The best finisher in the ACC was sitting on the Duke bench - you know, the guy they kept showing ridiculously long split screens of instead of focusing on the game.

Yeah Blackshear is a stud, but that was a whiff by Ellis for sure.

Billy Dat
02-26-2019, 10:37 PM
Beaten by a well-coached team that hit all our weaknesses without Zion. Good guards/wings that knew how to take care of the ball, drive and kick to outside shooters, plus a mobile big man that could put the ball on the floor and get past our bigs.

Still felt like the game was in our hands, but at 59 all, we go to a zone out of the timeout and immediately give up a wide open corner 3. That was pretty much the whole game. Every time we got close, tied, or took the briefest of leads, they immediately countered with an easy basket, a three or a three point play. The last three given up to Outlaw was just bad fundamental defense, forgetting about their best corner shooter one pass away.

All will be well once we get Zion back at full health, but in the meantime, I'd love to see more creative approaches on offense to the "don't guard Tre Jones" defense that's in vogue with all our opponents. V Tech's defense was so skewed toward RJ and Cam, I swear it looked like a box and one or triangle and two at various points.

Also, reinforcing a recent point made through Kedsy's recent statistical breakdowns, we're just not forcing turnovers and getting points off of them, even going back as far as the Louisville game. (lost in our crazy comeback in that game was the fact that their starting PG Christen Cunningham had 10 assists and only 2 turnovers midway through the 2nd half, before they fell apart against our press). Tonight, Alexander-Walker, Bede and Hill combined for 11 assists and only 2 turnovers, and their team as a whole only had 6 TOs.

By contrast, Cam and Tre had 8 turnovers combined. Credit to Virginia Tech for making it very uncomfortable for us to run our offense (though RJ's stomach-bug induced passiveness in the first half contributed a bit to that).

Jack still has the missed three pointer streak in his head...he needs one to drop so badly. But I thought he was good tonight until that late turnover on the drive -- super active on defense and on the boards. I think K still believes in him and if he could have just gotten a couple of more baskets to drop, we might have seized momentum sooner, instead of being constantly behind.

I generally don't question the coaches' decisions because they're the coaches and I'm a guy on the Internet, but I wish K had tried the press sooner with Goldwire. By the time K tried it, we were already in the bonus so the press didn't have as much bite. In fairness, no Zion at the back of the press would have made it tough to sustain regardless.

Buzz coached a fantastic game, but I'm with those who thought his postgame interview was incredibly classless. Gloating over a big win would have been better than whining incoherently about a call that didn't go his way that's still in his head.

Looking forward to exhaling a little with some (hopefully much) easier home games where our support guys get more playing time, and we can start a new winning streak.

This post very closely reflects my feelings about the game. The Buzzard is an excellent coach and a very eccentric guy, almost like he's on the spectrum and he tends to OCD, so I think he comes off as awkward and socially inept in some of his comments and such, but the dude is savant-like. He had the perfect scheme against us and I think his team executed to the 9s. I think the keys were their ability to get into the bonus early in the second half, getting to the line and nailing almost all their FTs, and hitting timely shots as we were making runs. They played really well, I tip my cap.


IMO people are underrating Virginia Tech in this thread. Kenpom has VT at 11; for reference, Tennessee is at 9. How would you all feel about losing a true road game to Tennessee?

I tend to agree...we were only 3.5 point favorites and had our chances to win. They made and we missed on the crucial possessions of the last 1:30.


Sorry to say that I think we got outcoached tonight. Every attempt at a drive was met with an immediate double team, leaving poor shooters wide open. Brilliant defensive game plan. Works all day every day. I was really hoping to see coach bench Jones for a bit. Maybe even play Baker and O'Connell at the same time. Force them to play straight up D. They wouldn't even necessarily have to make shots. They would just have to be a threat to potentially make shots. That would've allowed RJ room to operate.

We may have gotten slightly out coached, but that's because I think they had a rock solid scheme. We played some extremely unusual line-ups, but part of that was trying to counter their space and quickness with our length, and there were stretches when we were really locking them down, especially in the first half. I actually felt our defense was keeping us in the game, but they were consistently able to work the clock to single digits and then get to the line, especially in the second half. And, Blackshear tore us up. I thought VTech played really well.


What you're seeing is Tre, Cam and even RJ had times playing too much and go through stretches where they just play like it. K has ignored his bench all season. Soon as one guy come in, miss a shot or maybe turnover he pull them instead of letting them play through it and we're talking in close games in the 1st half too. These dudes putting up like 37-40 mins, that's not sustainable. AOC only two shots. K needs to find ways getting others besides Tre (who teams are now playing off of), Cam and RJ looks

I don't know, our 6th and 7th men played 25 and 16 minutes tonight. There are a lot of TV timeouts. This is how K does it, it's no different from any other year.

I, too, think we're fine as long as we get Zion back. We didn't lose to the Little Sisters of the Poor, we lost a conference road game where we have dropped 3 straight to a ranked team that was on their game...it happens.

WiJoe
02-26-2019, 10:39 PM
Excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses.

Saratoga2
02-26-2019, 10:41 PM
Well, that sucked. I thought we played decent half-court defense for most of the game. But we gave away a few too many transition buckets due to sloppy ball handling and falling asleep on long rebounds. That is a no-no. And we gave them a free look at a 3 on a zone possession out of a timeout (news flash: Va Tech has killed zones this season).

Barrett had a rough first and a monster second. Cam had a monster first and a rough second. If only one of them could have been on in both halves. Unfortunately, our third freshman starter had a rough offensive night all around. Jones has really fallen off as a PG lately, to the point that he is spending a lot of time off Ball now. Which is suboptimal as he can’t shoot. What a tough stretch it has been for Jones, and Zion’s absence is really exposing him in a bad way right now.

I thought Jack White played a fantastic game with the exception of the shooting. But he took the open looks, so that is a step forward. O’Connell drilled his two looks, but made a number of mistakes helping off shooters on defense. If we could infuse his shot into White, we would be awesome. Alas...

Phenomenal game from Bolden. He really gave us a spark. He made some defensive gaffes, but this was as assertive offensively as I can remember him. Hopefully a confidence booster for him.

Baker came in for a minute or two, shot an air ball, and checked back out. Early returns on the burning of the redshirt not so hot. But, there is still time. But it sure hasn’t looked promising so far.

Frustrating that we likely won’t win the ACC regular season and will now likely have to face both UNC and UVa to win the ACC title. Stupid injuries. The downside of the one-and-done era and Coach K’s season-to-season molding of the team into a single, year-specific philosophy is that we have no margin for error with injuries. If we stay healthy, that is fine, but we just never seem to stay healthy. Hopefully Zion comes back soon. The ACC title is still a possibility if/when he returns, but the path to it just got much tougher. And we can still win the NCAA title. But it sure looks like one of our goals is out the window.

RJ played well but the idea of giving him the ball in a quasi PG role is asking a lot from him. It looked like the rest of the team goes dormant when it becomes the RJ only show.

Cam had a decent first half but he is not a guy who should handle the ball in traffic. He is less refined in his game than RJ (who isn't) and he is loose and makes questionable decisions, like when he got called for the charge at a critical juncture. Still, he is an important part of the team but for now is more of a catch and shoot guy.

I agree that Jack White showed a lot of smarts, toughness and leadership on defense. He was instruction Cam I believe on one play, pushing into defensive position. Poor Jack just cannot buy a 3 and is not really a ball handler in traffic.

Bolden had an excellent game on both offense and defense. I don't really know how he wound up with 4 fouls, but having him out of the game hurt us.

AOC went 2 for 2 on threes. I know he can get lost sometimes on defense and is not strong enough against guys who are 6'6" and 230, but somehow we have to run screens for him to get him more open looks.

Tre seemed too have difficulty handling against the VT guards. He had a bad night shooting and is in a slump when it comes to making his close in shots. I think he had a three and one layin. Can't remember anything else.

Our defense just gave up a bunch of wide open three looks. We need to deal with the defensive scheme to avoid giving up all of those opportunities, especially to a good 3 point shooting team. We were beat by a better team tonight although the guys did fight hard, we also need to pllay smarter.

WillJ
02-26-2019, 10:42 PM
Given the injuries/sickness, not a bad loss. I should note that I was significantly less zen-like in my view before spending 30 minutes on the stationary bike:).

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 10:49 PM
Cuse pulling an RJ and pooping their pants right now.

baldtimer
02-26-2019, 10:49 PM
This is a bad loss....we should have a deeper bench at this point and certainly have more talent on paper...its near the end of the season and its not coming together once again...very disappointed.

Nhoman4
02-26-2019, 10:51 PM
Longtime lurker here. But wanted to express my thoughts after tonight’s tough loss.

First off, this Duke team is incredibly tough. There were multiple times in which it felt like Virginia Tech could open up an 8-10 point lead, which would’ve been tough to overcome in this game. Duke kept fighting back until a couple plays went against us in the final minutes.

R.J. was an animal in the second half. Just an excellent half from him to keep us in the game. As for Tre, it’s clear he’s struggling offensively and Virginia Tech was going to let him shoot. Hopefully this is a little late season slump that he can snap out of.

Would’ve liked to have seen more minutes and shots from AOC, but the GOAT knows better than I.

It’s a frustrating loss, mostly because Virginia Tech seems to be only to be able to beat us when it comes to top tier ACC teams. Why can’t they do this against UNC?!

Can’t wait for Zion to come back. Maybe a couple losses without him can light a little fire in this team.

Go Duke. We’ll be fine.

baldtimer
02-26-2019, 10:52 PM
I think what continues to frustrate many of us is that UNC gets better as the season goes on and we get worse...teams either figure us out or we wear out because we have no bench...not sure...but I sure would like to see us improve as the season goes on instead of going backwards....perhaps it just the result of relying on freshmen...who are very talented to be sure...but still freshmen.

AtlDuke72
02-26-2019, 10:52 PM
I think that the coaching is just too inconsistent. From what I read on this board it is the best of all time when the win and then is just lousy when they lose. I have also learned that Coach K’s playing 7 guys wears them out which must be why they sometimes lose. I should have known that because some have been saying that for years. Also learned in reading this thread that what they really need is to lose a couple of games because that will straighten them out. Coach K should have thought of that earlier this year.

bullettoothtony
02-26-2019, 10:54 PM
Excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses.


That's pretty much where I am.

baldtimer
02-26-2019, 10:57 PM
I think we need to figure out how UNC can create a bench that excels with much lower ranked players than our bench....its helps them win games...when we have one or two guys that are off we have no chance....they just sub them out and roll on...its is pitiful that at this point in the season (and their careers) that we have absolutely no inside scoring and no other guys who frankly can score beyond RJ, Zion, and Cam....there should be someone who can score....or at least has the guts to shoot. The reference to Mamba offense in an earlier post rings true...pass it to RJ or Zion and stand around and watch....that sums up our offense.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 11:00 PM
If you want some perspective on the past week, listen to the Devil's Den Podcast that just got posted.

Also, I think K said it best. He was happy with the team's effort tonight, they just need to get healthy. I think that about sums it up. If we get healthy, everything that happened this week (except hopefully Alex's hot shooting (he's 7 for his last 10 I believe), won't matter.

Oriole Way
02-26-2019, 11:01 PM
Ultimately, I'm not too worried about the losses to UNC and VT. Aside from the blatantly obvious fact we are missing the best player in the country, Duke's last two championship teams suffered through some similar rough stretches.

The 2010 team had a beatdown handed to it by Georgetown in late January - which was the team's third loss in a stretch of seven games - that had many on this board in a state of despair. The 2015 team suffered consecutive losses to NC State and Miami where the defense looked abysmal. The difference that year was that those losses came at the beginning of ACC play. But I think losing Zion - as well as Tre for a couple games and Reddish for the first Syracuse game - are more difficult challenges to deal with than anything those champion Duke teams had to face.

I hope we get Zion back before UNC. But I also hope we're done dealing with our share of injuries for the remainder of the season. Regardless, we really need to beat UNC in the rematch and/or win the ACC Tournament so that we preserve a #1 seed. Getting Zion back and finishing strong and healthy are the only things I am really hoping for at the moment.

azzefkram
02-26-2019, 11:02 PM
I can't get too worked up after this loss. Duke went 4-2 during the toughest 6 game stretch in D1 while playing half the games without Zion. Given our schedule I didn't think the ACC regular season was a realistic goal. Let's get healthy against Miami and Wake so we can pants unc, win the ACCT and the NCAAs.

bigperm13
02-26-2019, 11:04 PM
Due to the fact we lost to a ranked conference team on the road without the best player in the country, I believe it’s time for this team to wrap it up. They should all shut it down, not just Zion. A loss like tonight will just not stand for DBR Land and due to its occurrence, off with their heads essentially. Coach K too. He got out coached tonight and gets out coached every game. No strategy changes or wrinkles ever. Riding his players into the ground and NEVER developing a bench. Burning poor Joey Baker’s redshirt too late and now for nothing. He should have gone to the Lakers and saved us all 15 years of the same crap every year. Don’t even get me started on Cam Reddish. He should have never came to Duke he’s so bad at everything. Time for a new coach, new direction and hopefully, some winning seasons for a change. Kevin White, get it done good sir.

WiJoe
02-26-2019, 11:06 PM
how about a new a.d.?

bullettoothtony
02-26-2019, 11:06 PM
I think we need to figure out how UNC can create a bench that excels with much lower ranked players than our bench...its helps them win games...when we have one or two guys that are off we have no chance...they just sub them out and roll on...its is pitiful that at this point in the season (and their careers) that we have absolutely no inside scoring and no other guys who frankly can score beyond RJ, Zion, and Cam...there should be someone who can score...or at least has the guts to shoot. The reference to Mamba offense in an earlier post rings true...pass it to RJ or Zion and stand around and watch...that sums up our offense.


I like the cut of your jib bt. Agree with all of it.

It's time to put up or shut up with all these outstanding recruits we've gotten these last few years. I'm tired of watching us wheeze into March dropping every excuse imaginable.

Sluggo
02-26-2019, 11:09 PM
I think what continues to frustrate many of us is that UNC gets better as the season goes on and we get worse...teams either figure us out or we wear out because we have no bench...not sure...but I sure would like to see us improve as the season goes on instead of going backwards...perhaps it just the result of relying on freshmen...who are very talented to be sure...but still freshmen.

I have had similar thoughts....other teams are definitely improving while we seem a little stuck. I plan on reserving final judgment until I see how the next few games go. I'm hoping that the injuries, which have caused an inconsistent rotation, is the cause, and that Zion will be back for the duration along with everyone else.
Time to get some momentum going!!

WiJoe
02-26-2019, 11:10 PM
Coach says Tre is worn down. That's believable.

WHOneedsSOX
02-26-2019, 11:10 PM
I think Coach K isn't making that big of adjustments because he knows Zion is coming back. Why completely change the team for 2-3 games and then have to change it back once he's back? And if Zion doesn't come back then Duke is in a tough spot anyways.

gofurman
02-26-2019, 11:14 PM
Coach says Tre is worn down. That's believable.

Did he say this in the presser. ?

ndkjr70
02-26-2019, 11:14 PM
Coach says Tre is worn down. That's believable.

He’s wearing down to a 3rd round draft pick if he doesn’t stay next year.

WiJoe
02-26-2019, 11:16 PM
Did he say this in the presser. ?

yes sir

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 11:17 PM
I have had similar thoughts...other teams are definitely improving while we seem a little stuck. I plan on reserving final judgment until I see how the next few games go. I'm hoping that the injuries, which have caused an inconsistent rotation, is the cause, and that Zion will be back for the duration along with everyone else.
Time to get some momentum going!!

That and their schedule has been super easy and the tough teams they play, they get at home... And the tough road game they had, well, we all saw what happened.

gofurman
02-26-2019, 11:19 PM
K said Tre is worn down?

yes sir

Well who is that on? I am sure they will rest him. I think

Other point. Vt is playing guys 40 minutes both Blackshear and Alexander played all. How are they not worn down. Tre is much smaller ... Rest him

WHOneedsSOX
02-26-2019, 11:19 PM
Coach says Tre is worn down. That's believable.

He's probably played the most minutes on Duke. He never comes out of the game. Pressing full court and having to bring the ball up every possession is exhausting.

Dukehky
02-26-2019, 11:21 PM
I like the cut of your jib bt. Agree with all of it.

It's time to put up or shut up with all these outstanding recruits we've gotten these last few years. I'm tired of watching us wheeze into March dropping every excuse imaginable.

LOL.

UNC went to back to back final fours while starting all mcdonalds all Americans who were there for 3/4 years. This year has been one of the more impressive runs I've seen from them, but I cannot imagine thinking like this.

Rich
02-26-2019, 11:21 PM
If you want some perspective on the past week, listen to the Devil's Den Podcast that just got posted.

Or tonight's post game press conference.

Mak P
02-26-2019, 11:25 PM
Did anyone ask K what he plans to do about it?

ndkjr70
02-26-2019, 11:26 PM
Not excited for the annual “wait, *that* Duke player is leaving” followed by “wait, *those UNC players are staying?!”.

Coby White will be a handful next year.

WiJoe
02-26-2019, 11:26 PM
Minutes averages

all games

RJ: 34.4

Tre: 32.7

Cam 29.1

Zion 28.2

Jack 22.9

Besser 2.8

ACC games

RJ: 37.1

Tre 35.4

Cam 33.4

Zion 29.6

Jack 22.4

Marques 21.9

Jav 14.2

rsvman
02-26-2019, 11:26 PM
I believe that Tre is worn out. He coulda/shoulda gotten some rest during tonight's game.
I think it would have increased our chances of getting out of there with a win.

SupaDave
02-26-2019, 11:28 PM
I think what continues to frustrate many of us is that UNC gets better as the season goes on and we get worse...teams either figure us out or we wear out because we have no bench...not sure...but I sure would like to see us improve as the season goes on instead of going backwards...perhaps it just the result of relying on freshmen...who are very talented to be sure...but still freshmen.

If UNC is your torch bearer, might I suggest the IC for you... Growth tends to not be week to week round here.

ndkjr70
02-26-2019, 11:29 PM
I don’t see what K sees in Jack any more. You can only “prove it in practice” so many times. He had one great defensive play today (after immediately turning the ball over on offense), missed another few shots, missed another few assignments, and had another horrible game.

If AOC and Joey Baker aren’t ready to play ACC-level basketball, this team will not go very far. I don’t think that’s being alarmist, I think it’s being realistic.

Steven43
02-26-2019, 11:31 PM
I think Coach K isn't making that big of adjustments because he knows Zion is coming back. Why completely change the team for 2-3 games and then have to change it back once he's back? And if Zion doesn't come back then Duke is in a tough spot anyways.
Confucius say a wise man you are.

Mak P
02-26-2019, 11:36 PM
Having Zion isn't going to stop Cam and Tre being worn down

Gooch
02-26-2019, 11:36 PM
It’s my fault. I never watch the games in real time (only on DVR) and just this once I watched at the sports bar and it was trivia night and this cool couple sitting next to me at the bar were trying to figure out what movie from 1994 featured Brad Pitt as a vampire and so I lost focus for a couple minutes and Virginia Tech hit a three and Cam missed and we lost.

Honestly I feel like the Hokies played as well as they possibly could and we were down a man—so not our night and the result was not what we wanted. I think at full strength we can beat anyone and that’s all we can hope for going into the last part of the season.

Selover
02-26-2019, 11:39 PM
I saw a bit of talk about Coach K's presser and was curious so I looked it up. Wanted to provide a link in case anyone else was interested:
http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&id=6312448

Cheers!

mkirsh
02-26-2019, 11:40 PM
Excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses, excuses.

So any analysis of the game is “excuses”? I guess the only appropriate response is that this team is terrible, will be lucky to make the tournament and if they do will lose in the first round, and the game has passed coach k by while unc (with 5 losses already) is clearly on its way to another banner. Did I get that right? Or should I add that Buckmire and J Rob should be getting 15 mins a game and that we should never recruit one and done players?

In reality, this team has gone through a rough stretch without the best player in the country, and on top is just not playing well right now. It happens in a long season. We have 2 straight weeks without travel to get healthy and circle the wagons. We will either get Zion back, which makes us the best team in the country again (and if so I don’t care what line we are on - image the outcry from the 1 seed that gets Duke as its 2), or we won’t in which case we play the rest of the year as the underdog - even without Zion we have enough talent to beat anyone but have to play near perfect to do so. Either way, I wouldn’t trade places with anyone in the country.

Coballs
02-26-2019, 11:45 PM
From here on out VT’s whining coach is officially known as Puzz Williams to me

kako
02-26-2019, 11:52 PM
5 thoughts:

1. Man, the negativity on this board after a loss... Never like to lose, but going 4-2 through a tough stretch on the schedule with Zion out for half the games and Barrett clearly not at full strength for the last one? Sure, I'd rather go 6-0 but I'll take 4-2.

2. Barrett manned up in the 2nd. Tough playing with stomach problems. Wish he could shoot FTs better, though.

3. Bolden played well offensively, but where were the boards? I was thinking the whole team looked weak on the boards (watched the game on DVR so I couldn't check live). I was surprised to see that Duke actually outrebounded VaTech.

4. They should look more for AOC, perhaps set a screen or two. Ride the hot hand from 3. Something seems wrong that he got only 2 shots.

5. I had every confidence Duke would make a run, and they did so quickly. Too quickly, I think. If it had been slower, maybe fear would have crept in. Bad D by AOC leaving Outlaw when they were tied at the end, but the man still had to nail it... and he did. Reddish was all set up for his 3, but no dice. Too bad, he could have been the hero once again. But hats off to the Hokies. I now officially am wary of going to Blacksburg.

9F

WHOneedsSOX
02-26-2019, 11:59 PM
5 thoughts:

1. Man, the negativity on this board after a loss... Never like to lose, but going 4-2 through a tough stretch on the schedule with Zion out for half the games and Barrett clearly not at full strength for the last one? Sure, I'd rather go 6-0 but I'll take 4-2.

2. Barrett manned up in the 2nd. Tough playing with stomach problems. Wish he could shoot FTs better, though.

3. Bolden played well offensively, but where were the boards? I was thinking the whole team looked weak on the boards (watched the game on DVR so I couldn't check live). I was surprised to see that Duke actually outrebounded VaTech.

4. They should look more for AOC, perhaps set a screen or two. Ride the hot hand from 3. Something seems wrong that he got only 2 shots.

5. I had every confidence Duke would make a run, and they did so quickly. Too quickly, I think. If it had been slower, maybe fear would have crept in. Bad D by AOC leaving Outlaw when they were tied at the end, but the man still had to nail it... and he did. Reddish was all set up for his 3, but no dice. Too bad, he could have been the hero once again. But hats off to the Hokies. I now officially am wary of going to Blacksburg.

9F

3. Which is why White was getting minutes. One of the few guys actually going to get rebounds. The other guys mostly just stand there and if it comes to them, great, if not then oh well. Zion usually get them all for them.

4. They should have AOC in the left corner and not Tre. RJ kept driving that way only to find Tre's man 15 feet off of him double teaming.

diablesseblu
02-27-2019, 12:00 AM
I've decided that tomorrow I will rewatch "Earn Everything" on ESPN +. I love this group and simply want to reconnect with their joy of being at Duke, their being part of the team and with K's delight in coaching them.

At my advanced age, anything else at this juncture is just noise. Whatever the team achieves (or doesn't), their play the rest of the season is fine with me.

ChrisP
02-27-2019, 12:04 AM
We've lost exactly 1 (ONE) game all YEAR in which we've had our full complement of players. That was to the current #1 team in the land who is a legit title contender and deserving #1 seed. I freakin' HATE Vtech and especially playing up there and tonight's game was very much a bummer but...I'm not that bummed. RJ was under the weather and clearly not himself in the 1st half, we also played without maybe the best college bball player in a generation (who we lost LESS THAN A WEEK AGO to a freak accident/injury), we played our 2nd road game in a row after a short turnaround from Saturday night in an emotional game at 'Cuse, AND we were at the end of a brutal 6 game stretch in which we played: 4 ranked teams (3 on the road) and 6 games against ACC teams who are in the top 8 not named Duke. In other words, the only really good ACC team we did not play recently was FSU.

Let's face it, we had almost no business coming back against Louisville and raise your hand if you REALLY thought we'd come out of this 6 game stretch at 6-0. Sure, I would have loved that, too but it was extremely unlikely to happen against the competition we played. I think many of us would have said we'd be happy to get through it 4-2. And guess what? We did! Yay for us!

I have tried - apparently to no avail - to explain to my stepsons that just because Duke has a #3 to the left of it's name and VT has a much lower #(20) next to theirs, that does NOT automatically guarantee a victory ON THE ROAD IN THE ACC! I have been around ACC hoops my whole life and, with the exception of maybe 2-3 bottom dwellers who are having off years, it is TOUGH to win ACC road games. And oh yeah, in case you haven't noticed, teams just LOVE to beat Duke! I hate it, but realize that level of focus and effort is because of the awesome, consistently excellent program K has built over decades.

So, wring your hands and gnash your teeth if it makes you feel better. I still think Duke has a great chance to win it all this year. But so do several other teams so I'll hope for some rest and healing for our guys and I'll take my chances with a rested, healthy Duke team this year against literally anyone in the country.

mkirsh
02-27-2019, 12:06 AM
I don’t see what K sees in Jack any more. You can only “prove it in practice” so many times. He had one great defensive play today (after immediately turning the ball over on offense), missed another few shots, missed another few assignments, and had another horrible game.

If AOC and Joey Baker aren’t ready to play ACC-level basketball, this team will not go very far. I don’t think that’s being alarmist, I think it’s being realistic.

There was a great article in the Athletic today about K State’s “Play Hard” chart. (I’d link it but it’s a pay site). The chart traces its lineage back to Gene Keady and Purdue in the 80s when they had to compete with Indiana who snatched up all the top recruits. As a result, Keady had to get lower tier guys to play harder and developed this chart that measured steals, blocks, deflections, dives on the floor, loose balls won, offensive boards, and charges drawn. I don’t have this data for Duke, but I would guess Jack, Javin, Cam, and Tre would lead Duke. So that, plus rebounding, leadership, and team defense are why Jack plays, even in a shooting slump. The team badly needs his offense to improve, but by the same token misses his defense and hustle when he is benched.

Steven43
02-27-2019, 12:15 AM
So that, plus rebounding, leadership, and team defense are why Jack plays, even in a shooting slump. The team badly needs his offense to improve, but by the same token misses his defense and hustle when he is benched.

Don’t worry too much about my boy, Jack. He’s about to figure out the mechanical issue(s) that has been causing him to miss all these 3’s lately. He’ll soon settle in at around 35-37% the rest of the way.

ndkjr70
02-27-2019, 12:35 AM
Has anyone in the history of Duke basketball missed 27 (28?) consecutive 3 pointers?

Kedsy
02-27-2019, 12:50 AM
ADVANCED STATS

Possessions: 63.4 (just under Virginia Tech's adjusted season average, meaning the Hokies won the battle of the pace)

OFFENSE

oRtg: 1.14 (our adjusted oRtg was 1.24, second straight good performance without Zion)
eFG%: 57.0% (strong)
3pt%: 33.3% (a little bit above average shooting performance, at least for this year's Duke squad)
2pt%: 62.1% (very good)
%threes: 42.0% (waaaaay too many threes)
FT rate: 38.0% (pretty good)
OR%: 25.0% (weak)
TO%: 18.9% (better than the last two games, but probably not good enough)
a/to: 0.92:1
%assisted: 44.0%
fast break pts: 5 (6.9% of our points; in our last twelve conference games, we've only had fast breaks comprise more than 12.1% of our points twice -- both against Virginia)


DEFENSE

dRtg: 1.22 (adjusted that's 1.07, really lousy)
eFG%: 54.0% (bad)
3pt%: 30.8% (can't actually complain too much about this number, though it is lower than our season average of 28.7%, which is 5th best in the country)
2pt%: 62.5% (really, really bad)
%threes: 52.0% (that's a whole lotta threes)
FT rate: 58.0% (yuck, our 2nd-worst FT rate of the season)
DR%: 75.9% (pretty good, actually)
TO%: 9.5% (our lowest opposing TO% of the season, after our previous low was set last game)
a/to: 2:1 (after a long string of games with 1:1 or below, we've had four straight of the opposite)
%assisted: 52.2%
fast break pts: 9 (11.7% of their points)
block%: 8.0%; 16.7% of 2-point shots (good, considering we played without Zion, again thanks primarily to Javin)
steal%: 1.6% (second straight putrid performance in this area)


No doubt about it, this game was lost on defense. Our defensive rebounding was pretty good but we stunk at pretty much every other defensive metric.

bluesin
02-27-2019, 12:51 AM
Well I don't like the loss, credit to VT for the win, but I have learned some things from this thread and reading about some of our problems on the board in general.

1) Our offense was bad, even though we literally moved up one spot in the KP rankings, to 2nd and were within 4 of the prediction for our offense (though I can't find the predicted possessions to go along with it).
2) They got a lot of 3s and really hurt us with them, even though we held them to 30.8% on threes and after this game they're still top 10 in the country at 3 pointers at almost 40%.
3) We probably lost because of our weakness that everyone has talked about all year, 3 point shooting and FT shooting, even though we were 33% from 3 and almost 79% from the line (btw if cam had made his last 3 we'd have shot 38% and we would still have been losing).
4) We gave up too many rebounds, even though we out rebounded them (our best offensive rebounder would have probably helped but he's still on the bench of course)

I get being upset by a loss, but to lay it on anything besides we were tired and hurt and got outplayed on our defensive end on their 2 point shots and sent them to the foul line a lot seems like you're making up problems to me. They shot 62.5% from 2 points, and had 23-29 free throws. We are one of the absolute best teams in the country at not fouling people for shots (7th per KP), and at 2 point defense (26th). And that's after this game. We just didn't get it done, and when you're tired I'd say we can all agree that you foul more and you're slower on defense, which I'm sure contributed to not getting as many steals either. Again, all credit to VT for executing their game plan but I'm not seeing any trend that's cause for concern (yet), and wouldn't be fixed with a dose of vitamin Z and some rest. We did better on our weaknesses and all our strengths just didn't show up this game. Our offense was fine, especially considering who's sitting out, and on a different day where we haven't played 3 games in 6 days with a back to back set of road games with 2 days apart who knows how that game plays out - but I'd like our chances in it.

All that being said, the next time Buzz is that close to one of our players I hope Coach tells them to dribble into him for the T a la Jason Kidd.

uh_no
02-27-2019, 12:54 AM
Given we just lost to the #20 team in the country without Zion, I think it to some degree validates the question of whether we are a top 20 team without zion. I still think the answer is "yes," since they seem to be slightly better than 20, and it was on their court, but I also don't (and didn't think) it was an unfair question to ask.

Steven43
02-27-2019, 12:58 AM
Has anyone in the history of Duke basketball missed 27 (28?) consecutive 3 pointers?

Does it really matter? It’s just a statistical anomaly. He could just as easily turn it around as continue missing. But I think he’ll figure it out.

Kedsy
02-27-2019, 01:10 AM
I disagree 4 losses. Probably 6 by tournament time. Looking at a 1st weekend loss if Zion doesn't come back. Not much coaching being done on the offensive end.

Most of the posts in the first few pages of this thread made me want to spit. Maybe the whole thread, I stopped reading after the post quoted above.

I honestly thought with the amazing team we have this season I wouldn't have to read the annual b.s. about expecting NCAAT first weekend losses, but I guess not. What makes so many of these posts even more offensive is the fact that our offense was fine in this game, good even. It was defense where we lost the game. But almost every complaint that I saw was about offense. If you're going to whine about having to root for a top three team in the nation, at least know what you're talking about.

Kedsy
02-27-2019, 01:13 AM
Given we just lost to the #20 team in the country without Zion, I think it to some degree validates the question of whether we are a top 20 team without zion. I still think the answer is "yes," since they seem to be slightly better than 20, and it was on their court, but I also don't (and didn't think) it was an unfair question to ask.

Of all people, you'd be close to the last I'd expect to tout a one game sample. Besides, according to Pomeroy, they're #11, which in this context is a lot more than "slightly better" than #20, and as you say they had the home court advantage.

uh_no
02-27-2019, 01:27 AM
Of all people, you'd be close to the last I'd expect to tout a one game sample. Besides, according to Pomeroy, they're #11, which in this context is a lot more than "slightly better" than #20, and as you say they had the home court advantage.

That's why i said I think the answer is yes. I'm only stating that it provides enough evidence to validate asking the question.

some back of the envelope:

The 20th team in the country would be expected to lose to UNC by ~6 on a neutral court, or 10 at home. We lost by 16.

That team should have beaten syracuse by 3 on a neutral court or 1 on the road. We won by 10

The team should have lost to VT by 3 on a neutral court, or 6 on the road. We lost by 5

If you take a very basic analysis and say we are ~1.3 points better over a game, or ~1.6 /100, that puts us at what, ~15th? If you believe syracuse to be the outlier, there's a good bit of the distribution that puts us >20th. If you think, like I do, that UNC is probably the outlier, then we are probably still top 10. The high level approach even shows we played one game a few points worse than expected, one a few points better, and one almost right on the dot. One should say, though, that the numbers get slightly better when you adjust for the fact that the carolina game (our worst game) was fast, exacerbating the efficiency difference, and the other two games were slow....so it's a streeetttcchhh to say we're only 20th, but I don't still don't think it's as bad a question as you.

Kedsy
02-27-2019, 01:38 AM
That's why i said I think the answer is yes. I'm only stating that it provides enough evidence to validate asking the question.

some back of the envelope:

The 20th team in the country would be expected to lose to UNC by ~6 on a neutral court, or 10 at home. We lost by 16.

That team should have beaten syracuse by 3 on a neutral court or 1 on the road. We won by 10

The team should have lost to VT by 3 on a neutral court, or 6 on the road. We lost by 5

If you take a very basic analysis and say we are ~1.3 points better over a game, or ~1.6 /100, that puts us at what, ~15th? If you believe syracuse to be the outlier, there's a good bit of the distribution that puts us >20th. If you think, like I do, that UNC is probably the outlier, then we are probably still top 10. The high level approach even shows we played one game a few points worse than expected, one a few points better, and one almost right on the dot. One should say, though, that the numbers get slightly better when you adjust for the fact that the carolina game (our worst game) was fast, exacerbating the efficiency difference, and the other two games were slow...so it's a streeetttcchhh to say we're only 20th, but I don't still don't think it's as bad a question as you.

Fair enough, although I think you got the math wrong on the UNC game, since any team should be expected to play better at home than on neutral and not worse (though obviously that's even more support for the "we're not top 20" crowd).

KandG
02-27-2019, 01:56 AM
I don’t see what K sees in Jack any more. You can only “prove it in practice” so many times. He had one great defensive play today (after immediately turning the ball over on offense), missed another few shots, missed another few assignments, and had another horrible game.

I don't think we were watching the same player. In fact, Jack White making only "one great defensive play" and having a "horrible game" was so at odds with what I recalled that I actually rewound the game to review Jack's possessions.

Jack entered the game in the first half and did an outstanding job of keeping his feet in the paint to help on Blackshear while keeping track of Outlaw, VT's best 3 point shooter. Jack had to navigate a difficult help and recover when Blackshear got a step in the paint and passed out to the corner, and Jack contested Outlaw's 3 well.

Next defensive possession: deflects a pass to Outlaw out of bounds. Then deflects another pass off a VT pick and roll to another corner 3 point shooter. And this isn't just me looking for brownie points to give to Jack -- his hustle and overall activity is so evident that the announcers make note of it as well.

On another defensive possession, Jack does temporarily lose track of Outlaw who gets a shot off, but he goes to contest, then quickly rebounds the miss, then flies down the court to get set for an open corner 3, which he misses (though the shot is taken in rhythm).

Apart from the missed corner 3s, Jack is actually pretty solid on offense in the first half. He manages to follow up an errant RJ floater for his first basket. On another offensive possession, Jack runs from his corner spot when Cam drives and rebounds Cam's miss, gets a nice reverse layup after establishing himself. Jack also tipped a miss on offense to Cam, who gets one of his best looks of the night for a made 3 from the top of the key.

After Jack is subbed out for DuLaurier, guess who overplays the middle and forgets about Outlaw in the corner? Javin. Outlaw gets his first really clean look and nails the 3.

Later in the first, Jack also contests Alexander-Walker's jumper off a pick and roll and creates a turnover at the end of the half when he bumps Blackshear off his spot. Pretty outstanding first half for Jack White.

In the second half, there were a couple of breakdowns, but they resulted from Blackshear rolling to the basket off a high pick and roll and lack of communication between Jack and Javin. Both times, Jack had to leave Outlaw to cover for Javin who overplayed or gambled on defense and didn't recover.

Jack's worst defensive gaffe was trapping Hill in the corner but giving up baseline and allowing him to drive by for a layup. He then had the turnover you mentioned, but he quickly made up for it by breaking up a fast break alley-oop (a very difficult play) which quickly led to a RJ fast break layup at the other end.

Jack's not perfect and I'd like to see him break his three point shooting slump soon so that defenses don't crowd our best players so much. But I thought he was on the whole, very good vs VT, and Coach K went out of his way to highlight Jack's play, for good reason. I'd bet Jack wouldn't have left Outlaw open for the dagger 3 at the end of the game the way AOC did.

DukeWarhead
02-27-2019, 06:04 AM
Not liking to hear “worn out.” That’s an excuse. Every team plays the same number of games. Duke shouldn’t be any more worn out than any other team by this time in the year. Not a good excuse for poor execution.

dukelifer
02-27-2019, 06:24 AM
Not liking to hear “worn out.” That’s an excuse. Every team plays the same number of games. Duke shouldn’t be any more worn out than any other team by this time in the year. Not a good excuse for poor execution.
When K says worn out- he usually means both physical and mental. Very few of any programs are under the same mental pressure every night out. Duke is getting outsized attention this year because of Zion. Now that Duke is slipping a bit in the polls- they will no longer be the focus of college basketball- but somehow I doubt it.

dukelifer
02-27-2019, 06:51 AM
ADVANCED STATS

Possessions: 63.4 (just under Virginia Tech's adjusted season average, meaning the Hokies won the battle of the pace)

OFFENSE

oRtg: 1.14 (our adjusted oRtg was 1.24, second straight good performance without Zion)
eFG%: 57.0% (strong)
3pt%: 33.3% (a little bit above average shooting performance, at least for this year's Duke squad)
2pt%: 62.1% (very good)
%threes: 42.0% (waaaaay too many threes)
FT rate: 38.0% (pretty good)
OR%: 25.0% (weak)
TO%: 18.9% (better than the last two games, but probably not good enough)
a/to: 0.92:1
%assisted: 44.0%
fast break pts: 5 (6.9% of our points; in our last twelve conference games, we've only had fast breaks comprise more than 12.1% of our points twice -- both against Virginia)


DEFENSE

dRtg: 1.22 (adjusted that's 1.07, really lousy)
eFG%: 54.0% (bad)
3pt%: 30.8% (can't actually complain too much about this number, though it is lower than our season average of 28.7%, which is 5th best in the country)
2pt%: 62.5% (really, really bad)
%threes: 52.0% (that's a whole lotta threes)
FT rate: 58.0% (yuck, our 2nd-worst FT rate of the season)
DR%: 75.9% (pretty good, actually)
TO%: 9.5% (our lowest opposing TO% of the season, after our previous low was set last game)
a/to: 2:1 (after a long string of games with 1:1 or below, we've had four straight of the opposite)
%assisted: 52.2%
fast break pts: 9 (11.7% of their points)
block%: 8.0%; 16.7% of 2-point shots (good, considering we played without Zion, again thanks primarily to Javin)
steal%: 1.6% (second straight putrid performance in this area)


No doubt about it, this game was lost on defense. Our defensive rebounding was pretty good but we stunk at pretty much every other defensive metric.
VT hit a lot of shots when Duke made a mini run to get it close. Duke never was able to wrestle control of the game by getting TOs or capturing rebounds after a miss. VT played well enough and Duke gave up an open three at a critical moment. This is late season basketball. You have to execute on both ends. Absent Zion- the margin for error is very small.

porkpa
02-27-2019, 07:27 AM
I've come to the conclusion that this year's Duke squad is two different teams.
(1) The potentially great one which has Zion, RJ and Tre healthy and intact.
(2) The good one, which is missing any of those components.

Indoor66
02-27-2019, 07:36 AM
Am I wrong for saying Tre Jones is almost a liability on offense?

Yes, you are.

Saratoga2
02-27-2019, 07:37 AM
I got to read coach K's comments this morning. I agree with him that the kids played hard throughtout the game. The business of being worn down is something he has control over if he substitutes. Jordan is available to come in for Tre to give him a break. It's not as if we give away a lot in offense with Tre in an offensive slump.

Our offense is not at all solid when we have Javin, Tre and Jack on the floor.

Javin is unable to score off of anything but breakaway dunks and putbacks, In addition, with putbacks he often takes the ball to the floor for a dribble. He is active defensively and plays hard but isn't a strong player rebounding and fouls too much. Does he think on defense? Others have said they throught he got caught out of position when he gambled.

Jack played an outstanding defensive game and no doubt was fresh and determined. He was directing others as to defensive positioning. Unfortunately his three point shot just will not fall and he is not a one on one player and is prone to turn the ball over if he tries to go off the dribble. Still, Jack is a big asset when we have our full complement of offensive players available.

I can believe Tre is worn down physically and mentally. He is asked to pressure the ball and also bring the ball up under pressure. VT has quick and stong guards that were hounding him. His offensive game has gone off and I noticed RJ carried some of the PG duty. Maybe because coack K wanted to be certain RJ wasn't denied the ball. We don't lose much by substituting Jordan for more minutes to keep Tre fresher.

I will go back and watch the game again. I thought we continually letting VT use the drive and dish or just pass the ball around until they got a guy wide open for a 3. We need to understand that whille AOC's not being on his man at the end was a real mistake, so were the many other times when our defense was caught off. There are lessons from this game and we need to do a much better job of avoiding wide open three point shots.

RJ had another terrific game despite being sick. We can't ask more from him. Bolden also had an excellent game althoough somehow got into foul trouble.

Alex provided points and could do more if some work is done to get him the ball off of screens. He seems to need to be encouraged to take more shots. Maybe he should learn to pump fake his man.

Duke76
02-27-2019, 08:06 AM
Of course, Baker and AOC three shot attempts combined.

I agree with this...to me I'd rather have AOC as a defensive liability (as evident by last 3 from Outlaw) but with the offensive potential from 3 more than off setting that. IF you look t his minutes most of them are at the end of the game. He didn't get a chance to play like against Syracuse. It opens it up so much I think for Tre to have that additional 3 threat on both sides of the middle. To me taking the ball out of Tre's hand most of the second half hurt us...know RJ responded well, but the dribble, dribble dribble iso offense especially when being double teamed is not high usually effective...and proved not to be down the stretch, imo. You gotta pass before the double team gets to you...pass pass pass not dribble dribble dribble

weezie
02-27-2019, 08:16 AM
Soooo many travelling calls....

UrinalCake
02-27-2019, 09:08 AM
I'm honestly not that upset about the loss. So many things working against us - no Zion, RJ with the stomach bug, Cam sitting for a stretch after the hard fall, even Javin turned an ankle, plus we're at the end of a brutal stretch of the schedule. Many of us pointed to this game weeks ago as a likely loss, and that was before we lost Zion (and to be fair, it was before VT lost Robinson). Still we hung in there and put ourselves in a position to possibly steal a win. I was actually encouraged by the first half because we were basically hanging with them despite getting nothing from Barrett. We were spreading the scoring around, and if we can continue to do that after Zion comes back (rather than having guys standing around watching him) then we will be a better team. Free throw shooting was also perfect in the first half.

I don't think it's an exagerration to say that Zion could account for a 40 point swing in a game like this, between the points he scores, the points he takes away on the defensive end, and the emotional boost he provides with his big dunks and blocks. Our transition game is nonexistent without him. Opponents have zero fear going into the lane. He just affects so many things, not to mention the chemistry he brings with his infections energy and hustle.

Jack continues to be a disaster behind the line, to the extent the the opposing crowd actually cheers when he shoots a three. But he does literally everything else really well. I wish there was some way we could give him Alex's jump shoot and combine them into a single player. Alex can hit open threes as we all know, but he is so easy to defend because he can't create anything. Opponents can put their worst defender on him and he still can't get an open look unless his defender helps off of him or it's a broken play. I wonder if we'll ever run an actual play for him to get him an open three?

With all that said, turnovers cost us the game. Tre had his pocket picked at midcourt twice leading to breakaways, which is very uncharacteristic of him. A couple bogus traveling calls thrown in as well, but without Zion we have such a small margin for error.

ChillinDuke
02-27-2019, 09:11 AM
We couldn't turn them over. Just one or two more live ball turnovers could have swung this game.

We were close on many, just didn't get them.

- Chillin

UrinalCake
02-27-2019, 09:19 AM
I dont ever overreact. But: Duke without Zion is just not very good. It's not for lack of talent, they just cant shoot. I've been in denial, but even with Zion this team should have never been down that much against Louisville. And I didn't want to admit-look how much Duke had to shoot out of their minds to win that game at UVA.

Two counterpoints:

1. Much of our deficit against Louisville was created when Zion was on the bench with foul trouble. The comeback was sparked when he returned to the game.

2. We beat UVA the first time without shooting out of our minds. And the second game was practically a blowout; if we had shot normally we could have possibly still won anyways.



It’s my fault. I never watch the games in real time (only on DVR) and just this once I watched at the sports bar and it was trivia night and this cool couple sitting next to me at the bar were trying to figure out what movie from 1994 featured Brad Pitt as a vampire and so I lost focus for a couple minutes and Virginia Tech hit a three and Cam missed and we lost.

Interview With A Vampire?

Billy Dat
02-27-2019, 09:24 AM
At the risk of incurring wrath, I want to point out two things I liked about VTech's home game set-up.

-The promo of "free bacon" if an opposing player misses two straight free throws is brilliant. When we missed the front end, those kids were going berserk trying to earn their swine.

-The "Enter Sandman" sing along when the game was decided is also pretty great. I may be partial having watched Mariano Rivera memorably walk from bullpen to mound to that anthem but it is a great alternative to Steam's "Na Na Hey Hey Kiss Him Good Bye".

J4Kop99
02-27-2019, 09:26 AM
It's hard to seriously analyze these games if Zion is not playing.

I want Duke to win every night, no matter the circumstances -- in fact, I expect them to win... but w/o Zion it's like I'm watching some unnecessary experiment. We don't need to watch Duke play without him to know Duke is not as good.

It would be nice to see certain players step-up in his absence but at the end of the day, getting him back solves the problems we are having. It's as simple as that. In the specific case of Joey Baker, it seems obvious that Coach K is slowly getting him acclimated. Can you blame him? What's the point in a baptism by fire? No reason to risk him losing confidence during a stretch of games where we as a team are not even close to 100%. I imagine the idea is for Joey Baker to be prepared for a moment much bigger than a conference road game in VT.

budwom
02-27-2019, 09:29 AM
Get everyone healthy and we'll be in good shape. I'd also like to think that vs Miami and Wake, Jack and others can get some opportunities to fix shooting woes.

mkirsh
02-27-2019, 09:30 AM
With everyone worried that the season is over because we lost 2 games in Feb, here is how the last 10 NCAA Champs finished their seasons:

2018 - Villanova - Lost 3 games in Feb (1 home, 2 road); won conference tournament; 4 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2017 - UNC - Lost 2 games in Feb (both away; 8 pt loss and 10 pt loss); lost in conference tournament to Duke (by 10); 7 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2016 - Villanova - Lost 2 game in Feb on the road; lost in conference tournament; 5 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2015 - Duke - No losses in Feb (but 3 in Jan including a home blowout by Miami by 16 and road loss to State by 12); lost by 10 in conference tournament; 4 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2014 - UConn - Lost 2 games in Feb (one home, one road) and lost by 33! on the road in the last regular season game in March; lost in conference tournament; 8 losses headed into NCAA tournament (yuck)
2013 - Vacated (Louisville) - Lost 1 game in Feb on the road (but lost 3 in a row in Jan); won conference tournament; 5 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2012 - UK - No losses in Feb; lost in conference tournament; 2 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2011 - UConn - Lost 4 games in Feb (2 home, 2 road) and the last 2 regular season games in March (one home, one road); won conference tournament; 9 losses headed into NCAA tournament (double yuck)
2010 - Duke - No losses in Feb but lost last regular season road game to MD; won conference tournament; 5 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2009 - Should be Vacated (UNC) - Lost 1 game in Feb on the road; lost in conference tournament; 4 losses headed into NCAA tournament

So if I take a composite, the average title team lost 2 regular season games in Feb/March; only 40% won their conference championship; and the average title team had 5 losses going into the NCAA tournament. And I don't believe many (if any) of those teams were playing without their best player for their losses. Still a lot of games to be played and we need to take care of business against Miami and Wake, but 2019 Duke would not have to be some huge long shot to win because we lost 2 games in Feb to ranked teams.

left_hook_lacey
02-27-2019, 09:30 AM
When K says worn out- he usually means both physical and mental. Very few of any programs are under the same mental pressure every night out. Duke is getting outsized attention this year because of Zion. Now that Duke is slipping a bit in the polls- they will no longer be the focus of college basketball- but somehow I doubt it.

I wish that were true, but it's not. Zion gets more TV time sitting on the bench than some players get that are actually in the game.

ESPN has sunkn its teeth into Zion and will not stop with the coverage until it has gotten every drop of blood it can get out of him.

If Duke continues to struggle, it will only become an even bigger story than it already is because of the roster we have. Just got to roll with it. This is what they all signed up for. Big time players decided to play together and create a team of monstars. So we can't wilt, or sulk or be "mentally exhausted" because we're getting attention. We are built for this. Gotta just play hard, play together, and tune out the noise and everything will fall into place.

CDu
02-27-2019, 09:34 AM
2. We beat UVA the first time without shooting out of our minds. And the second game was practically a blowout; if we had shot normally we could have possibly still won anyways.

Agree with you on the first point. But not the second. We won by 10 against UVa and we shot 13-21 from 3. If we shoot normally, we're like 7-21 from 3. That's an 18-point swing. And the lead was built almost entirely on that absurd start from 3: we hit 7 of our first 8 to go up 29-15 before UVa clawed back into the game. Is it possible that we could have won shooting that much worse? Maybe. But it would have been a substantial uphill battle. The tenor of that game was driven entirely by us shooting out of our minds to start. And even after the ridiculous 7-8 start, we still hit 6-13 thereafter, which was another ~2 makes above what we expected.

UrinalCake
02-27-2019, 09:41 AM
We won by 10 against UVa and we shot 13-21 from 3. If we shoot normally, we're like 7-21 from 3. That's an 18-point swing.

But if we weren't hitting those threes then the score would have been closer, the flow of the game would change and we would have made other adjustments. Plus we'd get offensive rebounds off some of the misses. Again, I'm not saying it was a guaranteed win but it's at least possible we would have won even without shooting lights out.

Obviously shooting is a concern though. When Tre is left completely unguarded and receives the ball, he will usually take a dribble or two inside the line and then shoots. It's a much higher percentage shot for him, but it gives the defense time to recover. As for Jack, I can only conjure memories of Matt Jones enduring a weeks-long shooting slump (not this bad, but still pretty bad) only to nail the game-clinching shot against ND in the ACCT. Hopefully Jack breaks the seal and gets one to drop.

FerryFor50
02-27-2019, 09:48 AM
Serious question here...

I see a lot of people making analysis of what they think the problems are. And K, who knows his players best, says they're worn down.

Yet, I see people throwing around the word "excuses." There's negative connotation to that.

At what point is it an "excuses" and when is it "reasons why they lost"? I think the word excuses is way overused, as if explaining why something happened is some sign of weakness.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-27-2019, 09:53 AM
With everyone worried that the season is over because we lost 2 games in Feb, here is how the last 10 NCAA Champs finished their seasons:

2018 - Villanova - Lost 3 games in Feb (1 home, 2 road); won conference tournament; 4 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2017 - UNC - Lost 2 games in Feb (both away; 8 pt loss and 10 pt loss); lost in conference tournament to Duke (by 10); 7 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2016 - Villanova - Lost 2 game in Feb on the road; lost in conference tournament; 5 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2015 - Duke - No losses in Feb (but 3 in Jan including a home blowout by Miami by 16 and road loss to State by 12); lost by 10 in conference tournament; 4 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2014 - UConn - Lost 2 games in Feb (one home, one road) and lost by 33! on the road in the last regular season game in March; lost in conference tournament; 8 losses headed into NCAA tournament (yuck)
2013 - Vacated (Louisville) - Lost 1 game in Feb on the road (but lost 3 in a row in Jan); won conference tournament; 5 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2012 - UK - No losses in Feb; lost in conference tournament; 2 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2011 - UConn - Lost 4 games in Feb (2 home, 2 road) and the last 2 regular season games in March (one home, one road); won conference tournament; 9 losses headed into NCAA tournament (double yuck)
2010 - Duke - No losses in Feb but lost last regular season road game to MD; won conference tournament; 5 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2009 - Should be Vacated (UNC) - Lost 1 game in Feb on the road; lost in conference tournament; 4 losses headed into NCAA tournament

So if I take a composite, the average title team lost 2 regular season games in Feb/March; only 40% won their conference championship; and the average title team had 5 losses going into the NCAA tournament. And I don't believe many (if any) of those teams were playing without their best player for their losses. Still a lot of games to be played and we need to take care of business against Miami and Wake, but 2019 Duke would not have to be some huge long shot to win because we lost 2 games in Feb to ranked teams.

So... It's over?

CDu
02-27-2019, 09:59 AM
But if we weren't hitting those threes then the score would have been closer, the flow of the game would change and we would have made other adjustments. Plus we'd get offensive rebounds off some of the misses. Again, I'm not saying it was a guaranteed win but it's at least possible we would have won even without shooting lights out.

I would say it is pretty unlikely that we win that game if we shoot 7-21 from 3 instead of 13-21 from 3. Obviously we'll never know for sure. But I feel pretty confident that we won that game because we shot out of our minds. And that's fine. It offsets the Syracuse loss where we shot unbelievably poorly and THEY shot out of their minds.


Obviously shooting is a concern though. When Tre is left completely unguarded and receives the ball, he will usually take a dribble or two inside the line and then shoots. It's a much higher percentage shot for him, but it gives the defense time to recover. As for Jack, I can only conjure memories of Matt Jones enduring a weeks-long shooting slump (not this bad, but still pretty bad) only to nail the game-clinching shot against ND in the ACCT. Hopefully Jack breaks the seal and gets one to drop.

It's definitely a concern with Zion out. We'll see if it remains a major concern when Zion returns.

Right now, I'm more concerned with Tre Jones' fading offensive game all around (not just the 3pt shooting, which I expect to be bad). He went from a nearly sure-fire 1st round pick based on his all-purpose game to a liability on offense. He's turning it over more and assisting less, and he's not shooting well from anywhere on the floor. It's at the point where he's not even running the point for long stretches of the game anymore.

Maybe that gets fixed once Williamson returns and we get our swagger back. But I'm definitely wondering if Zion's presence was masking what is a pretty limited offensive player in the half court. I wonder if what we were seeing earlier from Jones was a really good "downhiill" PG but purely a caretaker in the half court who was benefiting from having a juggernaut transition player and behemoth in the half court to allow him to just protect the ball in half court sets. I was hoping Jones would step up in Zion's absence, but he's really struggled in the 3 games without Zion (6-32 from the field [3-17 from 3 and 3-15 from 2] with 7 turnovers). We need him to be better on offense for us to win consistently, regardless of the team's 3pt shooting. To his credit, he's continued to play great defensively. He held Alexander-Walker to 3-10, White to 3-14, and Battle to 4-17. But we need him to be better offensively.

Seems like we're getting a lot of one-way play right now. Barrett is carrying things offensively but mediocre defensively. Jones and White are great defensively but struggling offensively. Reddish is great defensively and periodically strong offensively, but really sloppy with the ball. O'Connell is a terrific shooter but bad defensively. Goldwire is capable of frenetic pressure defensively but nonexistent offensively.

CDu
02-27-2019, 10:05 AM
Serious question here...

I see a lot of people making analysis of what they think the problems are. And K, who knows his players best, says they're worn down.

Yet, I see people throwing around the word "excuses." There's negative connotation to that.

At what point is it an "excuses" and when is it "reasons why they lost"? I think the word excuses is way overused, as if explaining why something happened is some sign of weakness.

There's no reason it can't be both an excuse and a legitimate reason why they lost. Saying we lost because Zion was out is both a valid excuse and a valid reason why we lost. The Duke uniform isn't the reason we were great this year, the players (primarily) were. Well, if you take the players away, it's a different team. No reason not to expect different results.

UNC doesn't beat us if Coby White is out, for example. UVa doesn't threaten us if Ty Jerome is out. Syracuse doesn't beat us without Tyus Battle (and of course without us missing both Reddish and Jones). And so on. Players matter. Absence of key players matters.

Note: I'm not writing this as disagreeing with you, as I think we agree on this; just stating my opinion as a reply to your post.

Acymetric
02-27-2019, 10:15 AM
With everyone worried that the season is over because we lost 2 games in Feb, here is how the last 10 NCAA Champs finished their seasons:

2018 - Villanova - Lost 3 games in Feb (1 home, 2 road); won conference tournament; 4 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2017 - UNC - Lost 2 games in Feb (both away; 8 pt loss and 10 pt loss); lost in conference tournament to Duke (by 10); 7 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2016 - Villanova - Lost 2 game in Feb on the road; lost in conference tournament; 5 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2015 - Duke - No losses in Feb (but 3 in Jan including a home blowout by Miami by 16 and road loss to State by 12); lost by 10 in conference tournament; 4 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2014 - UConn - Lost 2 games in Feb (one home, one road) and lost by 33! on the road in the last regular season game in March; lost in conference tournament; 8 losses headed into NCAA tournament (yuck)
2013 - Vacated (Louisville) - Lost 1 game in Feb on the road (but lost 3 in a row in Jan); won conference tournament; 5 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2012 - UK - No losses in Feb; lost in conference tournament; 2 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2011 - UConn - Lost 4 games in Feb (2 home, 2 road) and the last 2 regular season games in March (one home, one road); won conference tournament; 9 losses headed into NCAA tournament (double yuck)
2010 - Duke - No losses in Feb but lost last regular season road game to MD; won conference tournament; 5 losses headed into NCAA tournament
2009 - Should be Vacated (UNC) - Lost 1 game in Feb on the road; lost in conference tournament; 4 losses headed into NCAA tournament

So if I take a composite, the average title team lost 2 regular season games in Feb/March; only 40% won their conference championship; and the average title team had 5 losses going into the NCAA tournament. And I don't believe many (if any) of those teams were playing without their best player for their losses. Still a lot of games to be played and we need to take care of business against Miami and Wake, but 2019 Duke would not have to be some huge long shot to win because we lost 2 games in Feb to ranked teams.

I feel like there are more people complaining about people saying the season is over in this thread than there are people actually saying the season is over by a factor of 5 to 1.

mapei
02-27-2019, 10:21 AM
I hesitate to weigh in, because so much has been said already. Nonetheless . . .

What struck me more than anything else last night was that we looked slow compared to them. We were beaten repeatedly to the ball and to spots on the floor, which contributed to our turnovers and fouls. I fret that there's something to the "worn out" theory. I don't think we have looked as good in this six-game stretch, even when we have had Zion - except for the game in Charlottesville - as we looked before.

Will Zion's return make everything right again? I hope so: he not only brings points, rebounds, blocks and energy, but the fact that other teams have to account for him means that they can't concentrate as much on our other players. So maybe. But we need him back soon, and we need to see Tre get back to the way he was playing earlier in the season.

roywhite
02-27-2019, 10:40 AM
Team currently "worn out" or low energy? It should hardly be a surprise:

They are missing their best player
Bench play has been spotty at best
They are just completing what is said to be the hardest stretch of schedule for any team in the country
ACC teams and coaches are good --- they have learned about how to play vs Duke
The main players are freshmen; as much as they've heard how the season can be long and stressful, they haven't experienced it until now
We've seen this pattern of February downturns for Duke and other championship teams before

Get some rest, and on the next play.

tbyers11
02-27-2019, 10:47 AM
Team currently "worn out" or low energy? It should hardly be a surprise:

They are missing their best player
Bench play has been spotty at best
They are just completing what is said to be the hardest stretch of schedule for any team in the country
ACC teams and coaches are good --- they have learned about how to play vs Duke
The main players are freshmen; as much as they've heard how the season can be long and stressful, they haven't experienced it until now
We've seen this pattern of February downturns for Duke and other championship teams before

Get some rest, and on the next play.

Agree with all of these. But the hardest schedule one in particular. Having the back-to-back road games with short turnarounds (Sat-Tue vs Tue-Sat and SatPM-Tue to be exact) TWICE in 17 days is really a rough haul. The fact that all 4 of those road games were against NCAA tournament teams (with three of the teams likely 5 seed or higher) makes it even more difficult.

Now the key is can we learn from these challenges during the next 2 weeks where we don't really leave home (only road game before ACC tourney is the 8 mile jaunt to Chapel Hill) to recover and improve mentally and physically. With the physical recovery of Zion obviously a big key

Kfanarmy
02-27-2019, 10:48 AM
Mere coincidence. Move along folks. Nothing to see here. The Luke Maye effect.

:mad::mad:


It is a verb: "They got Swofforded." "You're getting Swofforded." "They got a good Swoffording." definition: An ACC basketball team is being screwed over by ACC officials to, in some way, benefit UNC. It can occur in a game UNC isn't even playing in. eg. both Duke and Syracuse got a little Swoffording last night.

It can also happen to players off the court as well, but generally years after graduation when they discover that their degree is exactly worth what they put into it.

Rich
02-27-2019, 10:54 AM
I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that Zion could account for a 40 point swing in a game like this, between the points he scores, the points he takes away on the defensive end, and the emotional boost he provides with his big dunks and blocks. Our transition game is nonexistent without him. Opponents have zero fear going into the lane. He just affects so many things, not to mention the chemistry he brings with his infections energy and hustle.

I hope that's a typo (infectious, not infections) rather than a grammatical error missing a comma (...with his infections, energy and hustle)!