scottdude8
02-25-2019, 12:49 PM
Despite the misery that was Wednesday night, this week as a whole ended up being a net (get the pun?!?!) positive for Duke's hopes for a No. 1 seed. Duke has dropped to No. 3 in the NET rankings (https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings), but the loss to UNC falls within the top-half of Q1 (meaning it won't be a huge black mark on our resume), and the win over Syracuse also counts as a Q1 victory. Meanwhile, Tennessee's loss dropped them to No. 7 in the NET, and Michigan's loss to MSU (which broke my heart, obviously!) dropped them to No. 9. Both of those results are good for Duke: as I mentioned in last week's analysis (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43229-NET-News-(Feb-18)-Has-Duke-pulled-away-Is-the-fourth-No-1-seed-in-play), Tennessee is likely the primary competition for the No. 1 overall seed, and Michigan the most likely team to steal a No. 1 seed from the status quo of two ACC teams, and SEC team, and Gonzaga.
Now, barring one of the B1G teams pulling away from the pack (which would probably involve Michigan or MSU winning out, including the conference tournament) or an implosion from Gonzaga or the SEC (like if Tennessee beats Kentucky, but also loses another couple of games down the stretch), the current conference layout of the No. 1 seeds is getting more and more set (i.e. two ACC, one SEC, and Gonzaga). Why? Put simply, teams are running out of time to gain Q1 quality wins. Amongst the Top 10 NET teams, only Tennessee has more than two remaining Q1 games as of today (they have 4). So if something monumental is going to change on the 1-line, it's more likely to come about by bad losses or a losing streak by a top team bringing them back to the field... and even if that happens, the most likely candidate is Tennessee, and they'd likely be replaced by Kentucky (especially if their fall includes a second loss to the Wildcats).
Since things aren't as interesting at the top of the bracket anymore, I thought I'd take a quick look at the bottom of the bracket and see how things are shaking out relative to the NET. As it stands on Bracket Matrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/), Clemson and Alabama are the consensus "last two teams in", while Utah State and Butler are the "first two out". Where do these guys stand in the NET? Clemson is 43, Alabama is 53, Utah State is 37, and Butler is 49. So, if the committee ends up weighing the pure NET rankings more heavily, we might see the mid-major Utah State in over a middling major conference team. However, if you look at the Team Sheets (https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Games%20through%20Feb.%2024,%202019.pdf), Utah State is 1-2 in Q1, and 2-3 in Q2; Butler is 2-7 in Q1 and 5-5 in Q2. Meanwhile, Clemson is 1-8 in Q1 and 3-3 in Q2, and Alabama is 2-7 against Q1 and 7-3 against Q2. The only major differentiator there is Alabama's superior Q2 resume, which I would bet gets them in if these teams continue to struggle against the top-tier, Q1 opponents. But amongst the other three teams, you could make a strong argument for Utah State based on their NET ranking considering there isn't too much difference in resume compared to Butler and Clemson (besides just a larger quantity of Q2 games in Butler's case). So if this scenario doesn't change in a major fashion by Selection Sunday, whether a team like Utah State makes the tourney over a power conference team like Clemson or Alabama could be the best indicator of the new NET rankings playing a major role in the at-large selection process.
Discuss away!
Now, barring one of the B1G teams pulling away from the pack (which would probably involve Michigan or MSU winning out, including the conference tournament) or an implosion from Gonzaga or the SEC (like if Tennessee beats Kentucky, but also loses another couple of games down the stretch), the current conference layout of the No. 1 seeds is getting more and more set (i.e. two ACC, one SEC, and Gonzaga). Why? Put simply, teams are running out of time to gain Q1 quality wins. Amongst the Top 10 NET teams, only Tennessee has more than two remaining Q1 games as of today (they have 4). So if something monumental is going to change on the 1-line, it's more likely to come about by bad losses or a losing streak by a top team bringing them back to the field... and even if that happens, the most likely candidate is Tennessee, and they'd likely be replaced by Kentucky (especially if their fall includes a second loss to the Wildcats).
Since things aren't as interesting at the top of the bracket anymore, I thought I'd take a quick look at the bottom of the bracket and see how things are shaking out relative to the NET. As it stands on Bracket Matrix (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/), Clemson and Alabama are the consensus "last two teams in", while Utah State and Butler are the "first two out". Where do these guys stand in the NET? Clemson is 43, Alabama is 53, Utah State is 37, and Butler is 49. So, if the committee ends up weighing the pure NET rankings more heavily, we might see the mid-major Utah State in over a middling major conference team. However, if you look at the Team Sheets (https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Games%20through%20Feb.%2024,%202019.pdf), Utah State is 1-2 in Q1, and 2-3 in Q2; Butler is 2-7 in Q1 and 5-5 in Q2. Meanwhile, Clemson is 1-8 in Q1 and 3-3 in Q2, and Alabama is 2-7 against Q1 and 7-3 against Q2. The only major differentiator there is Alabama's superior Q2 resume, which I would bet gets them in if these teams continue to struggle against the top-tier, Q1 opponents. But amongst the other three teams, you could make a strong argument for Utah State based on their NET ranking considering there isn't too much difference in resume compared to Butler and Clemson (besides just a larger quantity of Q2 games in Butler's case). So if this scenario doesn't change in a major fashion by Selection Sunday, whether a team like Utah State makes the tourney over a power conference team like Clemson or Alabama could be the best indicator of the new NET rankings playing a major role in the at-large selection process.
Discuss away!