This Week in the ACC: 2/25-3/3

[pfrduke]

With two weeks left in the regular season, there's a 3-way tie for first, a heated race for the 4th double-bye, and a whole mess of teams pretty much guaranteed to play ACCT Tuesday in some combination. I also get some satisfaction out of the fact that a likely 8-9 matchup will be Clemson-NC State - feels like a throwback to the days of the Les Robinson Invitational.

Let's take a look at the week ahead:

Monday

[17]Florida State (9-5) (-13) hosts [90]Notre Dame (3-11) (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday

[11]Virginia Tech (10-5) (+3) hosts [3]Duke (12-2) (7:00, ESPN)
[176]Wake Forest (3-11) (+4) hosts [68]Miami (4-10) (7:00, ACCNE)
[6]North Carolina (12-2) (-13) hosts [39]Syracuse (9-5) (9:00, ACCNE)

Wednesday

[1]Virginia (12-2) (-22) hosts [109]Georgia Tech (4-11) (7:00, ESPN2)
[86]Pittsburgh (2-12) (+3) hosts [33]Clemson (6-8) (7:00, ACCNE)
[107]Boston College (4-10) (+7) hosts [19]Louisville (9-6) (9:00, ACCNE)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday

[17]Florida State (9-5) (-7) hosts [35]NC State (8-7) (12:00, ESPN2)
[176]Wake Forest (3-11) (+8) hosts [39]Syracuse (9-5) (12:00, ACCNE)
[1]Virginia (12-2) (-20) hosts [86]Pittsburgh (2-12) (2:00, ACCNE)
[3]Duke (12-2) (-21) hosts [68]Miami (4-10) (4:00, CBS)
[33]Clemson (6-8) (+5) hosts [6]North Carolina (12-2) (6:00, ESPN)

Sunday

[19]Louisville (9-6) (-12) hosts [90]Notre Dame (3-11) (1:30, CBS)
[109]Georgia Tech (4-11) (-3) hosts [107]Boston College (4-10) (6:00, ESPNU)

ACC Non-Conference: 149-41
ACC vs. Power 5: 30-26

Efficiency margin (unadjusted) in conference play only:

Virginia - +19.1
North Carolina - +15.8
Duke - +13.6
Louisville - +7.9
Florida State - +6.8
Virginia Tech - +6.2
Clemson - +2.2
Syracuse - +2.1
NC State - -1.1
Miami - -6.3
Boston College - -9.8
Pittsburgh - -11.0
Notre Dame - -11.3
Georgia Tech - -12.9
Wake Forest - -22.0

[English]

Tuesday

[11]Virginia Tech (10-5) (+3) hosts [3]Duke (12-2) (7:00, ESPN)

SNIP

Efficiency margin (unadjusted) in conference play only:

Virginia - +19.1
North Carolina - +15.8
Duke - +13.6
Louisville - +7.9
Florida State - +6.8
Virginia Tech - +6.2
Clemson - +2.2
Syracuse - +2.1
NC State - -1.1
Miami - -6.3
Boston College - -9.8
Pittsburgh - -11.0
Notre Dame - -11.3
Georgia Tech - -12.9
Wake Forest - -22.0

This is a bit surprising to me--has the Robinson injury mostly not impacted VaTech's efficiency stats, or has my eye test been off that the Turkeys have fallen off a cliff since he went out (excluding the first game in his absence)? It seems like Duke should be a larger favorite than -3, even on the road, against a Robinson-less VaTech squad. Of course, we may not have Zion, but KenPom wouldn't know that.

[CDu]

Clemson, despite a brutal stretch of results in close games, has a chance to back into the NCAA tournament. They sit 6-8 in conference, but have two very winnable road games against Pitt and Notre Dame. They host two tournament teams in UNC and Syracuse. The first of those home games is this Saturday against UNC. Win that one and they have a really good shot of sneaking into the tournament. Lose it, and they'll be sweating that Syracuse game AND needing some help.

[DarkstarWahoo]

This is a bit surprising to me--has the Robinson injury mostly not impacted VaTech's efficiency stats, or has my eye test been off that the Turkeys have fallen off a cliff since he went out (excluding the first game in his absence)? It seems like Duke should be a larger favorite than -3, even on the road, against a Robinson-less VaTech squad. Of course, we may not have Zion, but KenPom wouldn't know that.

They're worse, but they haven't fallen off a cliff by any stretch. Loss at Clemson aside, they've beaten the teams they were supposed to beat, including a 22-point win over Syracuse, and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to. That may say as much about the massive gap between the top and bottom of the ACC as anything else - their victims since the injury have been Cuse, NC State (the Pack's infamous 24-point stinker), GT, Pitt and Notre Dame - but they've at least continued to tread water.

Kerry Blackshear, in particular, has played extremely well with Robinson (excuse me, "5") out.

[CDu]

They're worse, but they haven't fallen off a cliff by any stretch. Loss at Clemson aside, they've beaten the teams they were supposed to beat, including a 22-point win over Syracuse, and lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to. That may say as much about the massive gap between the top and bottom of the ACC as anything else - their victims since the injury have been Cuse, NC State (the Pack's infamous 24-point stinker), GT, Pitt and Notre Dame - but they've at least continued to tread water.

Kerry Blackshear, in particular, has played extremely well with Robinson (excuse me, "5") out.

Minor quibble, but Robinson very much played against Syracuse. He played 37 minutes, scored 35 points and dished 8 assists. He has missed the last 7 games for them, including losses to Louisville, @Clemson (not a bad loss), and UVa. They won @State, vs Ga Tech, @Pitt, and @Note Dame without him, for a 4-3 mark.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Minor quibble, but Robinson very much played against Syracuse. He played 37 minutes, scored 35 points and dished 8 assists. He has missed the last 7 games for them, including losses to Louisville, @Clemson (not a bad loss), and UVa. They won @State, vs Ga Tech, @Pitt, and @Note Dame without him, for a 4-3 mark.

You are correct. I don’t know how I missed that. I had in my head he missed the Chapel Hill loss, too, but at least had the good sense not to verbalize that.

[ncexnyc]

I have a strong feeling we'll see at least one upset on Wednesday night.

And I wouldn't be shocked if Syracuse beats the Cheats on Tuesday. The Cheats are due for a let down.

[jhmoss1812]

Sure, VT has 10 ACC wins but their best win is vs. Syracuse (current 6th place team in the ACC). They have feasted on the bottom half of the conference.

0-2 vs UVA
0-0 vs. Duke
0-1 vs. UNC
0-0 vs. FSU
1-0 vs. Cuse
0-1 vs. Louisville
1-0 vs. NCSU
0-1 vs. Clemson
1-0 vs. BC
1-0 vs. Miami
2-0 vs. GT
2-0 vs. ND
1-0 vs. Wake
1-0 vs. Pitt

[CDu]

Sure, VT has 10 ACC wins but their best win is vs. Syracuse (current 6th place team in the ACC). They have feasted on the bottom half of the conference.

Of course. They are certainly a second-tier ACC team. But they have beaten Purdue, Penn State, and Washington, and walloped NC State at State. And walloped Syracuse. And lost close to UVa in Blacksburg. So while they are a second-tier ACC team, they are a pretty darn good team. Comfortably a tournament team, especially when Robinson returns.

[Gooch]

I know it really doesn’t matter and I should be rooting for FSU to look better so Duke looks better, but ND mostly outplayed a sleepwalking FSU and got jobbed by the refs.

I will not be picking FSU to go far in the tourney...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I know it really doesn’t matter and I should be rooting for FSU to look better so Duke looks better, but ND mostly outplayed a sleepwalking FSU and got jobbed by the refs.

I will not be picking FSU to go far in the tourney...

The officials were terrible, even on the replay. Inexcusable.

[BandAlum83]

The officials were terrible, even on the replay. Inexcusable.

I had the sound off. With about 1:30 they went to the monitor. FSU's shot clearly hit the rim. Why didn't they reset the shot clock?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I had the sound off. With about 1:30 they went to the monitor. FSU's shot clearly hit the rim. Why didn't they reset the shot clock?

Yep, clearly hit the rim.....and then clearly hit the FSU player's hand for OB....they blew both ends of that call. Dan Dakich called it "historically bad" officiating.

[BandAlum83]

Yep, clearly hit the rim....and then clearly hit the FSU player's hand for OB...they blew both ends of that call. Dan Dakich called it "historically bad" officiating.

Really makes you wonder what the point of replay is

[devildeac]

The officials were terrible, even on the replay. Inexcusable.

Probably qualify for a bonus (and an extra Duke game or three before the end of the year) from the front office :rolleyes:.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Really makes you wonder what the point of replay is

Seriously.

BTW, the NHL does the best job on replay. It's all handled by officials in the home office on HD big screens....not subject to the commotion in the arena. They seem to get it right.

[sagegrouse]

This Week in the ACC deserves to be on Page 1.

Howsomever, the two games on the tube right now deserve to be on Page 99 -- Clemson slaughtering Pitt (38-16 at the half) and Virginia doing the same to Georgia Tech (41-22).

Mebbe Louisville at Boston College will be a better game.

[DarkstarWahoo]

GT is trash.

[ncexnyc]

I'm glad I never bet on these games.

My hunches have been terrible. Syracuse couldn't cut it yesterday and Pitt mailed it in at home tonight. I really expected more from Jeff's crew.

[CDu]

I'm glad I never bet on these games.

My hunches have been terrible. Syracuse couldn't cut it yesterday and Pitt mailed it in at home tonight. I really expected more from Jeff's crew.

Clemson is a pretty good team. They return most of a Sweet-16 squad, and could very reasonably beat UNC this weekend. Had they not choked at State, they would be looking fairly comfortable for a tourney bid. As is, they still can get there. Especially if they beat UNC. I wouldn’t have been shocked to see Pitt win at home, but expected the Tigers to win. They are way more talented than Pitt.

[robed deity]

If it wasn't obvious already, Duke completely ruined Louisville.

[duke2x]

If it wasn't obvious already, Duke completely ruined Louisville.

Louisville was suspect before we played them. They lost to Pitt and collapsed @FSU the game before. They just won't forget that game just like we haven't forgotten the 80's win in Cameron, 1986, and 2013*.

[gofurman]

Clemson is a pretty good team. They return most of a Sweet-16 squad, and could very reasonably beat UNC this weekend. Had they not choked at State, they would be looking fairly comfortable for a tourney bid. As is, they still can get there. Especially if they beat UNC. I wouldn’t have been shocked to see Pitt win at home, but expected the Tigers to win. They are way more talented than Pitt.

hope clemson gets in tourney.. 17-11 now. maybe if they get to 20 wins total they are in - right now they are listed as last 4 in.

[jv001]

Glad Clemson is hosting the cheats because we know how the Clemson kittens play at chapel hell. GoDuke!

[left_hook_lacey]

Wow, UNC only a -4 point favorite at Clemson. Upset alert!

[Bob Green]

Saturday

[17]Florida State (9-5) (-7) hosts [35]NC State (8-7) (12:00, ESPN2)
[176]Wake Forest (3-11) (+8) hosts [39]Syracuse (9-5) (12:00, ACCNE)
[1]Virginia (12-2) (-20) hosts [86]Pittsburgh (2-12) (2:00, ACCNE)
[3]Duke (12-2) (-21) hosts [68]Miami (4-10) (4:00, CBS)
[33]Clemson (6-8) (+5) hosts [6]North Carolina (12-2) (6:00, ESPN)



I do not expect to see movement at the top of the conference standings due to today's schedule. Duke needs to win and have Virginia and North Carolina lose but I expect all three teams will win. Carolina at Clemson is the most intriguing game of the three. Clemson needs a big win to help their NCAAT chances. Go Tigers!

Virginia Tech and Florida State are the leaders in the battle for the 4th double bye with VT being idle today while Florida State hosts N.C. State. That game is a toss up IMO as the Seminoles and Wolfpack are both schizophrenic so there is no predicting what will transpire in Tallahassee today. Vegas likes FSU -7.5.

Today is the penultimate Saturday of the regular season so it is time to kick back, enjoy and discuss ACC hoops.

[Wahoo2000]

Apologies for going beyond the scope of the thread, but outside of Tenn/KY, this is as lackluster a Saturday as I can remember on the national scene. There are NO other matchups pitting AP top 25 teams, and only TWO (LSU@Bama & Nevada@Utah St) even have spreads within 3pts.

Fortunately, it’s usually days like this that we get some good upset activity. Either way, I’ll be watching! 👀

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Apologies for going beyond the scope of the thread, but outside of Tenn/KY, this is as lackluster a Saturday as I can remember on the national scene. There are NO other matchups pitting AP top 25 teams, and only TWO (LSU@Bama & Nevada@Utah St) even have spreads within 3pts.

Fortunately, it’s usually days like this that we get some good upset activity. Either way, I’ll be watching! 👀

Good day for house projects. Until 4.

[jv001]

Looks like Duke's favored by 16-16.5 on most Vegas lines. Is that thinking Zion plays or doesn't play? GoDuke!

[JasonEvans]

Looks like Duke's favored by 16-16.5 on most Vegas lines. Is that thinking Zion plays or doesn't play? GoDuke!

That is thinking that everyone bets on Duke, especially this year. I truly think our lines are 3-4 points larger than they should be in most games due to the "the public loves Duke" factor.

[-jk]

Wow, UNC only a -4 point favorite at Clemson. Upset alert!

Well, now you've done it...

-jk

[devildeac]

Wow, UNC only a -4 point favorite at Clemson. Upset alert!


Well, now you've done it...

-jk

Anyone taking Clemson and the points today?

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at the above possibility.

[richardjackson199]

Anyone taking Clemson and the points today?

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at the above possibility.

There used to be this myth that Vegas oddsmakers set lines so that bettors place bets near equally on both sides. And if they don't the line moves accordingly to compensate. And that ensures the House makes money with the Vig.

Now it's widely acknowledged that just isn't true. The line is set to make money, period. So the oddsmakers know that Joe Public is going to pour money in on UNCheat with that 4 point line. Not too many people who have been watching college basketball would seriously think of betting Clemson and the points - unless they think that is a sharp bet because that is a ridiculous line (or because they know something and are sharp).

The extremely disturbing thing is that to me, this points to these game outcomes being influenced or fixed. ESPN had a very long, but fascinating article on an NBA ref who fixed games:http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25980368/how-former-ref-tim-donaghy-conspired-fix-nba-games

They talk about how easy it is for a referee to fix or swing a basketball game if they're smart about it. Just make one call to change momentum, stop a run, call a foul or two on a key player, etc. The article talks about a cynical truth that I do believe: given the astronomical (and increasing) amount of money being wagered on sports betting, corruption is inevitable.

I really hope the Cheats get a close game tonight or lose, obviously. That would really help Duke. But cheats fans should be terrified seeing that line, IMO. If I start to feel like I'm watching more games with a predetermined outcome, I'm going to lose interest quickly. That takes all the fun out of it IMO.

I believe a higher percentage of bigger games are getting fixed or corruptly influenced than any of us would like. Just one example, but it will be interesting to see what happens tonight. And of course it doesn't prove anything either way. Of course Clemson could play well at home in a big game for them to get a signature win over the cheats. But lines like that and lots of fishy stuff going on should be a warning siren IMO. Yes referees are human and make incorrect calls with human error. But too many humans are also sadly susceptible to corruption when lots of money for them and their family is involved.

[BandAlum83]

Florida St vs. NCSU is a really good game down th the wire.

And Dickie V is actually watching the game and doing really good color.

[BandAlum83]

Florida St vs. NCSU is a really good game down th the wire.

And Dickie V is actually watching the game and doing really good color.

Wow,terrible clock awareness/mgt in last minute for the Pack

[House G]

Roy Williams just had another one of his near-syncopal (?) spells and had to go to the locker room.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Roy goes down with vertigo. Hate that.

[SavDukeGrad]

I thought Roy really looked kind of out of it when he was helped off the court. Fortunate for Carolina it was very near the end of the half.

[left_hook_lacey]

I thought Roy really looked kind of out of it when he was helped off the court. Fortunate for Carolina it was very near the end of the half.

Same here. He basically laid out horizontal on his bench. Seems like he's had his vertigo in check of late with a minor spell now and then. That was pretty scary. I actually thought he'd had a stroke at first.

[ncexnyc]

Clemson being Clemson. Should we have expected more?

[SavDukeGrad]

Same here. He basically laid out horizontal on his bench. Seems like he's had his vertigo in check of late with a minor spell now and then. That was pretty scary. I actually thought he'd had a stroke at first.

That was actually my first thought as well. Apparently he’s out for the 2nd half.

[brevity]

Posting this health update here because I refuse to contribute to the “I really want to jinx Clemson by giving this game its own thread” thread (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43328).

Williams OK After Exiting UNC Victory with Vertigo (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26122268/williams-ok-exiting-unc-victory-vertigo?platform=amp)


“I started feeling a heck of a lot better, but he [Robinson] was up six or seven and I didn't want to jinx it. If we had lost, I would have gone back out there with him. But I didn't want to jinx him at that time, and yes, I'm a little superstitious.”

See? Even Roy gets it. Why can’t DBR?

[SavDukeGrad]

I haven't seen it posted anywhere, but Wake Forest has announced AD Ron Wellman's retirement:

https://www.wxii12.com/amp/article/reports-wake-forests-longtime-director-of-athletics-is-retiring/26607572

He will be succeeded by John Currie, a Wake Forest grad and former AD at Kansas State and Tennessee (though his Tennessee tenure ended because he was caught up in the Greg Schiano controversy)

Wellman has been at Wake since 1992. He has done some really good things for their athletic department and has made some great hires - notably Jim Grobe and Dave Clawson in football. But he has frustrated the fan base with his handling of the basketball situation, beginning with his firing of Dino Gaudio, then hiring his old friend Jeff Bzdelik, and finally extending Danny Manning's contract prematurely.

It will be interesting to see what Wellman's retirement means for Danny Manning's future at Wake - my gut says it's probably not good news.