PDA

View Full Version : MBB: Duke at VA Tech (Tue 2/26, 7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



DavidBenAkiva
02-24-2019, 02:28 PM
After an emotional night in Syracuse, New York, Duke travels to western Virginia to face the Hokies of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Like Duke, VA Tech is dealing with a significant injury that has derailed its team to a certain extent. Senior PG Justin Robinson has not played in the last couple of weeks. During that time, the Hokies have gone 3-3 in conference with losses at home to Louisville and Virginia and at Clemson. They have managed somewhat close victories over Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Notre Dame.

Without Robinson, the Hokies are not the same team. Their offense and defense is ok. They still have a number of excellent 3-point shooters. But a team that only plays 8 players is now down to 7 in its rotation. In addition to losing Robinson, The Hokies have no interior depth behind junior big man Kerry Blackshear, Jr. Blackshear is a load in the post and can step out to the 3-point and hit the jumper effectively. After Blackshear, the Hokies have no one with the size and game to play in the interior. Senior Ty Outlaw, at 6'6", is the next tallest player in the rotation. On offense, Outlaw is a pure jump shooter, taking almost all his shots from 3. They just do not have any inside game after Blackshear.

The other headliner for VA Tech is Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NAW). The 6'5" guard from Canada is a threat at all three levels and is a projected 1st round NBA Draft prospect after this season. He's a little like Jarrett Culver from Texas Tech but not as good on the defensive end or quite as long. NAW can score at all 3 levels and will be a load to guard in this game. Without Robinson, NAW is the leading distributor and ball handler for VA Tech. I expect to see Tre Jones on him a lot in this game.

Outside of Blackshear and NAW, VA Tech has an almost endless supply of guards and wings that can shoot the ball. Outlaw, 6'5" senior Ahmed Hill, 6'3" freshmen Isaiah Wilkins, 6'1" sophomore guard Wabissa Bede can all shoot the ball well and do so with frequency. For a team with so many guards and wings, the Hokies play at a terribly slow pace. They are 329th in the nation in tempo.

At full health, this would be a heck of a matchup. VA Tech is a jump-shooting team that plays at a deliberate pace while Duke is very good on the interior that loves to get up and down. What a contrast in styles. Having Robinson back for VA Tech or Williamson back for Duke could swing the game wildly. As is, without either, Duke probably has a slight edge in this one. But it won't be easy. VA Tech can be a tough place for the road team and the fanbase will be up for this contest. If Duke has dreams of winning the ACC regular season, this is a must-win game. Let's go Duke!

ndkjr70
02-24-2019, 03:21 PM
Is Justin Robinson not playing? If he's not, I feel pretty darn good about this game -- with or without Zion. VT shoots the three-ball very well (except against UVA, where multiple wide-open looks went halfway down and spit back out). NAW is a solid player but unspectacular. Blackshear is solid, but he's got nobody behind him. He'll be gassed.

Of course, VT can come out and shoot the lights out and run us out of the building. But if Robinson isn't playing, it'll take a huge effort to beat this Duke team.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-24-2019, 03:38 PM
Is Justin Robinson not playing? If he's not, I feel pretty darn good about this game -- with or without Zion. VT shoots the three-ball very well (except against UVA, where multiple wide-open looks went halfway down and spit back out). NAW is a solid player but unspectacular. Blackshear is solid, but he's got nobody behind him. He'll be gassed.

Of course, VT can come out and shoot the lights out and run us out of the building. But if Robinson isn't playing, it'll take a huge effort to beat this Duke team.

And another question, will they turn the lights on for this game.

DavidBenAkiva
02-24-2019, 04:00 PM
Is Justin Robinson not playing? If he's not, I feel pretty darn good about this game -- with or without Zion. VT shoots the three-ball very well (except against UVA, where multiple wide-open looks went halfway down and spit back out). NAW is a solid player but unspectacular. Blackshear is solid, but he's got nobody behind him. He'll be gassed.

Of course, VT can come out and shoot the lights out and run us out of the building. But if Robinson isn't playing, it'll take a huge effort to beat this Duke team.

I have no idea, but my guess is no. VA Tech has a week break between playing Duke and then going to Tallahassee to play Florida State. That is an odd time for a week off, but whatever. At any rate, on the broadcast of the VA Tech game yesterday, the announcers apparently mentioned that insiders are hopeful Robinson returns in time for the Florida State game. We'll know if he is playing on Tuesday when Tuesday comes.

richardjackson199
02-24-2019, 04:25 PM
IMO, last season's painful loss at Va Tech was another L in a game we coulda shoulda won that majorly contributed to that team never fully recovering to accomplish their goals. It was one of those losses that helped us get a 2 seed with a very difficult road to win it all. Too difficult in fact.

This season has had high highs and low lows. But it's sure been different. Beating Ponds and St. John's this year sure was different. Beating UVA this year (twice) was different. Let's continue that trend in Blacksburg on Tuesday. Winning there has always been very difficult for Duke because they get up so much for us. Winning without Zion would make leaving with a W even tougher.

But this team likes challenges. Let's beat the hokies this time.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-24-2019, 05:17 PM
I feel better about this trip to Blacksburg than I have in a while.....as normally I think VT is better than advertised.....this season I don't think they're as good. Then again, this place has been a house of horrors for us over the years.....and it seems to be their Super Bowl.....even more than UVa.....

Saratoga2
02-24-2019, 07:24 PM
After an emotional night in Syracuse, New York, Duke travels to western Virginia to face the Hokies of Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Like Duke, VA Tech is dealing with a significant injury that has derailed its team to a certain extent. Senior PG Justin Robinson has not played in the last couple of weeks. During that time, the Hokies have gone 3-3 in conference with losses at home to Louisville and Virginia and at Clemson. They have managed somewhat close victories over Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Notre Dame.

Without Robinson, the Hokies are not the same team. Their offense and defense is ok. They still have a number of excellent 3-point shooters. But a team that only plays 8 players is now down to 7 in its rotation. In addition to losing Robinson, The Hokies have no interior depth behind junior big man Kerry Blackshear, Jr. Blackshear is a load in the post and can step out to the 3-point and hit the jumper effectively. After Blackshear, the Hokies have no one with the size and game to play in the interior. Senior Ty Outlaw, at 6'6", is the next tallest player in the rotation. On offense, Outlaw is a pure jump shooter, taking almost all his shots from 3. They just do not have any inside game after Blackshear.

The other headliner for VA Tech is Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NAW). The 6'5" guard from Canada is a threat at all three levels and is a projected 1st round NBA Draft prospect after this season. He's a little like Jarrett Culver from Texas Tech but not as good on the defensive end or quite as long. NAW can score at all 3 levels and will be a load to guard in this game. Without Robinson, NAW is the leading distributor and ball handler for VA Tech. I expect to see Tre Jones on him a lot in this game.

Outside of Blackshear and NAW, VA Tech has an almost endless supply of guards and wings that can shoot the ball. Outlaw, 6'5" senior Ahmed Hill, 6'3" freshmen Isaiah Wilkins, 6'1" sophomore guard Wabissa Bede can all shoot the ball well and do so with frequency. For a team with so many guards and wings, the Hokies play at a terribly slow pace. They are 329th in the nation in tempo.

At full health, this would be a heck of a matchup. VA Tech is a jump-shooting team that plays at a deliberate pace while Duke is very good on the interior that loves to get up and down. What a contrast in styles. Having Robinson back for VA Tech or Williamson back for Duke could swing the game wildly. As is, without either, Duke probably has a slight edge in this one. But it won't be easy. VA Tech can be a tough place for the road team and the fanbase will be up for this contest. If Duke has dreams of winning the ACC regular season, this is a must-win game. Let's go Duke!

CDU may give us his analysis. I'd be interested in their defense as I haven't seen them play this year. Are they MTM of the pac line type? I wonder if AOC will match up well with them. Also, the situation with Zion may be clarified before Tuesday. We will need Cam to be back to his better offensive self.

CDu
02-24-2019, 07:46 PM
Well, the toughest stretch any team will face this season is about to wrap up. We've gone 4-1 so far, and the "1" obviously had extenuating circumstances. It would be nice to close out this stretch with a win. Coincidentally, Va Tech will also likely be shorthanded, making this a slightly more balanced affair in that r egard. Not that we are looking for handouts.

Va Tech is an extremely well-coached squad that is in transition style-wise. Buzz Williams is starting to get a team that fits his style, though, and it wasn't like Va Tech wasn't already a pugnacious bunch. Williams believes strongly in positionless bball. His Marquette teams were stacked with 6'6"-6'7" guys with tons of strength, athleticism, and versatility (picture Jimmy Butler), and he's moving that way with the Hokies as well. The Hokies are an elite offensive team and a pretty darn good defensive team as well. They aren't nearly as good offensively if their PG is out, though. They shoot extremely well from 3, but are also really efficient from 2pt range and the FT line as well. They play a matchup-zone defense along with an occasional zone press, forcing a lot of turnovers while not fouling much. They use a bunch of interchangeable parts with one big and one or two smalls, and everyone else playing all over the place. They congest the lane, and allow more three point attempts than just about anyone. I would imagine that gameplan doesn't change against us. They grind out possessions at a nearly-UVa rate, and I'd imagine that to continue in this one too as they don't want to let us get easy buckets in transition.

Centers: The Hokies pretty much have only one - Kerry Blackshear, Jr (6'10", 240lb redshirt junior). Blackshear has become a stud for the Hokies. He isn't overly physical, but he's an extremely capable scorer both in the paint and from 3. He'll be a handful. He rebounds well on both ends, especially on offense. He also is a not-awful shotblocker, though he's not elite at it. Blackshear will play as much as he possibly can, because the Hokies really have no plan B inside.

Forwards: The Hokies don't really have any of these.

Wings: There are a bunch of guys to talk about here. The star of the team is Nickeil Alexander-Walker (6'5", 205lb sophomore from Canada). Alexander-Walker isn't the most athletic or strong guy around, but he's just an incredibly smart player. He takes almost nothing but good shots, and hits everyth7sting him a year, and an ACL tear last year costing him another. He's a good athlete with a silky 3pt touch, but is almost exclusively a catch-and-shoot guy on offense. He's a terrific shooter, so making sure he's covered will be important. Despite being undersized, he's a terrific defensive rebounder. Hill missed all of the 2016 season with a partially torn patella tendon. He is a solid, versatile defender and a good perimeter shooter. He's also a terrific athlete. The third option is PJ Horne (6'5", 230lb sophomore). Horne is another rugged, athletic forward that is a junk yard dog. He's not nearly as good a perimeter shooter as his wing partners, but he's a relentless offensive rebounder and a good scorer around the basket. All 3 of these guys embody the type of versatile, physical wings that Williams loves. They essentially play forward, even though their skill sets and height are more winglike. Last but not least on the wings is Isaiah Wilkins (6'3", 230lb freshman). If the name sounds familiar, it should: he shares the same name (and spelling) as UVa's former defensive stalwart. They don't appear to be related. Wilkins is a fire hydrant of a wing. He's not overly athletic, but he can really shoot, and he doesn't mind banging inside either.

Guards: The Hokies have a stud PG in Justin Robinson (6'2", 195lb senior), but he's been out for the past 7 games with a toe injury. Since his absence, the Hokies have struggled against the good teams while handling the bad ones (4-3 overall). But he's the playmaker, senior leader, and sparkplug of the offense, and not having him really hurts. Robinson does it all as a scorer, much like Alexander-Walker. He's a true PG, but also a terrific scoring threat off-ball. He is super-efficient both inside the arc and outside the arc, and loves attacking off the dribble. And defensively Robinson gets a lot of steals as well. When he's healthy, he and Alexander-Walker make for a dynamite duo. It's unclear if Robinson will be available for our game. Behind Robinson is Wabissa Bede (6'1", 195lb sophomore). Bede is kind of like Tyler Thornton: a shorter, stout, not overly athletic, but crafty and high-IQ style player. He is a coach's dream of a role player, but athletically he's pretty limited. Lastly, Jonathan Kabongo (6'4", 180lb freshman from Canada) fills out the squad. Kabongo is the younger brother of former high-level recruit and Texas PG Myck Kabongo. Jonathan is not nearly the prospect that Myck was, but physically the similarities are striking. He's not quite ACC-ready at this point, and plays very sparingly even in the absence of Robinson.

If Robinson is again out, I would expect Jones to guard Alexander-Walker. If Robinson returns, Jones will probably cover Robinson and Reddish will get Alexander-Walker. Either should be up to the challenge though. I'll be looking forward to seeing Jones try to lock down another elite ACC guard. If Robinson is out, the Hokies are really limited in terms of ballhandling and playmaking. I do think that Blackshear creates a problem for us, because he's too quick for Bolden but might be too strong/skilled for DeLaurier. I do like, though, that they don't have any size, which should allow us to play smaller more often with Barrett as the de facto PF. I'm looking forward to seeing what the team looks like in this one after the major changes we saw on Saturday. Part of me feels like the same starting five makes the most sense, although O'Connell might get overmatched physically in this one. It could be a feast or famine game for Bolden, who will be the biggest guy on the floor but might get limited by Tech's smaller, quicker team. I would hope White gets back in the mix, as his physicality might play well in this one. But we'll likely be taking plenty of 3s, so getting O'Connell and Baker minutes might make sense too even if they aren't as athletically/physically suited. It would be nice to see Barrett have another monster game too, along with getting better shooting nights from Reddish and/or Jones.

Va Tech will scrap and claw and give it everything they have. It will not likely be a pretty game to watch. But hopefully the Syracuse game got our guys their mojo back. Can't wait till Tuesday!

MChambers
02-24-2019, 08:02 PM
But we'll likely be taking plenty of 3s, so getting O'Connell and Baker minutes might make sense too even if they aren't as athletically/physically suited. It would be nice to see Barrett have another monster game too, along with getting better shooting nights from Reddish and/or Jones.

VT is #351 in T-Rank in percentage of threes given up (49.8%!). Let's hope Duke has a decent shooting night.

CDu
02-24-2019, 08:21 PM
Oof, somehow I edited out a few sentences in the wings section. I blame my assistant, a 4-year-old who is still learning to spell. Maybe I should proofread after he sits in my lap to help me.

Alexander-Walker is of course the star. He is a smooth player but not at all explosive, stylistically not unlike Reddish (more polished but not as quick or nearly as long). He is a smart positional defender who reads the passing lanes well and collects a lot of steals. But he isn’t a lockdown on-ball defender. The Hokies have a pair of vets starting alongside him in Ty Outlaw (6’6”, 220lb sixth-year senior via UNC-G and Lee College) and Ahmed Hill (6’5”, 210lb fifth-year senior). Outlaw was a superb high school athlete who has transferred twice (once to a JuCo), missed a season to a heart condition and missed another due to a torn ACL. He is the “he” with the silky 3pt touch.

The rest is there.

Billy Dat
02-25-2019, 12:00 PM
If Robinson is again out, I would expect Jones to guard Alexander-Walker. If Robinson returns, Jones will probably cover Robinson and Reddish will get Alexander-Walker. Either should be up to the challenge though. I'll be looking forward to seeing Jones try to lock down another elite ACC guard. If Robinson is out, the Hokies are really limited in terms of ballhandling and playmaking. I do think that Blackshear creates a problem for us, because he's too quick for Bolden but might be too strong/skilled for DeLaurier. I do like, though, that they don't have any size, which should allow us to play smaller more often with Barrett as the de facto PF. I'm looking forward to seeing what the team looks like in this one after the major changes we saw on Saturday. Part of me feels like the same starting five makes the most sense, although O'Connell might get overmatched physically in this one. It could be a feast or famine game for Bolden, who will be the biggest guy on the floor but might get limited by Tech's smaller, quicker team. I would hope White gets back in the mix, as his physicality might play well in this one. But we'll likely be taking plenty of 3s, so getting O'Connell and Baker minutes might make sense too even if they aren't as athletically/physically suited. It would be nice to see Barrett have another monster game too, along with getting better shooting nights from Reddish and/or Jones.

With injuries and shooting woes creating a lack of consistency in our line-up, we are running out of regular season runway to sort some important things out....but maybe we never will, and that may be fine based on our talent. What does that make me look for in this VTech game?

-Javin seems to have temporarily risen to the top of the non-freshman, but Marques was a total stud in the Syracuse game after Javin went out with his fourth foul and, at least it looked to me, like he was about to pass out from exhaustion. I am not sure the Javin/Marques pecking order needs to be figured out...it will be a sort-of-platoon that is dictated by match-up and who is playing well that night. As CDu says, I bet we get the same starters and if Blackshear is punking Javin, enter Marques.

-Now that Baker is part of the picture, the AOC/Jack/Baker competition is really interesting. It would be amazing if one of them could emerge as a reliable near 40% 3 point shooter on 5-8 attempts per game while playing respectable defense and helping on the glass. Unlike Javin and Marques, I feel like we'd be better off if one of them could emerge just to bring some more stability to the rotation, but that is just a gut feeling. Maybe we'll be ok if at least one of them can contribute each night.

-As for 3 point shooting, journalists are starting to write about how teams lay 5 feet off Tre at all times...he's at under 20% on only 37 attempts...so they know he doesn't want to shoot and that he can't really shoot that shot. RJ is at 36% on nearly 100 attempts in ACC play. Give him a gold star! Cam is at 31% on 111 attempts...ugh. Still, I don't think teams will lay off him. Even at this poor clip, he rarely gets a feet-set, squared up clean look in rhythm. Hopefully the coaches can add some actions/wrinkles to get Cam some better looks...and he needs to at least try and get above 35%.

-Reviewing the "tracking Duke's defense" thread, there don't seem to be any "watch this" red flags. We are playing without Zion so we are weaker. Other than that, I agree that if Robinson is out, hopefully we can speed them up and get the game more at our faster pace.

COYS
02-25-2019, 12:22 PM
With injuries and shooting woes creating a lack of consistency in our line-up, we are running out of regular season runway to sort some important things out...but maybe we never will, and that may be fine based on our talent. What does that make me look for in this VTech game?

-Javin seems to have temporarily risen to the top of the non-freshman, but Marques was a total stud in the Syracuse game after Javin went out with his fourth foul and, at least it looked to me, like he was about to pass out from exhaustion. I am not sure the Javin/Marques pecking order needs to be figured out...it will be a sort-of-platoon that is dictated by match-up and who is playing well that night. As CDu says, I bet we get the same starters and if Blackshear is punking Javin, enter Marques.

-Now that Baker is part of the picture, the AOC/Jack/Baker competition is really interesting. It would be amazing if one of them could emerge as a reliable near 40% 3 point shooter on 5-8 attempts per game while playing respectable defense and helping on the glass. Unlike Javin and Marques, I feel like we'd be better off if one of them could emerge just to bring some more stability to the rotation, but that is just a gut feeling. Maybe we'll be ok if at least one of them can contribute each night.

-As for 3 point shooting, journalists are starting to write about how teams lay 5 feet off Tre at all times...he's at under 20% on only 37 attempts...so they know he doesn't want to shoot and that he can't really shoot that shot. RJ is at 36% on nearly 100 attempts in ACC play. Give him a gold star! Cam is at 31% on 111 attempts...ugh. Still, I don't think teams will lay off him. Even at this poor clip, he rarely gets a feet-set, squared up clean look in rhythm. Hopefully the coaches can add some actions/wrinkles to get Cam some better looks...and he needs to at least try and get above 35%.

-Reviewing the "tracking Duke's defense" thread, there don't seem to be any "watch this" red flags. We are playing without Zion so we are weaker. Other than that, I agree that if Robinson is out, hopefully we can speed them up and get the game more at our faster pace.

Good analysis. To be honest, I don't care if it's ugly. I don't care if we shoot 25% and our entire offense is stick-backs off of missed shots. I just want to find some way to win this game and buy us more time for Zion to get healthy and back on the court. This team has a ridiculously high ceiling, but it has been a shame to see so many games marred by injuries/illnesses to Tre, Cam, and Zion. Still, none of that matters if we're healthy and ready to come March . . . provided we have the best possible path to a Final Four. To me, it's even more important to gut out a win in Blacksburg with the Zion injury because we'll want as much time as possible against the weakest opponents possible to get Zion reintegrated and at full strength. Getting the overall number 1 seed is even more important now. Winning in Blacksburg will go a long way toward getting the top seed. I don't think style points will matter much to the Selection Committee since we'll be playing the game without Zion, so I don't really care how our efficiency rankings look (although, obviously, I'd love a hyper-efficient blowout). But earning a W is extremely important.

roywhite
02-25-2019, 12:24 PM
In the general area of shooting, pleased to see FT shooting is trending up. Good job vs Syracuse.
In conference games only, team FT% is up to 70.7, which is not great, but actually better than opponents 70.5% (I guess we credit the Crazies for good FT defense?)

The emergence of Alex and perhaps Baker for 3-point shooting could also help Cam in the area of shot selection, as he realizes there are other 3-point threats available. Cam's mechanics could be a lot better and more consistent; IMO this is partly a function of strength and physical development; a stronger core would give him better balance. Love to have a time machine to see today what Cam can/could look like in 5 years or so. In spurts, we see some outstanding plays.

COYS
02-25-2019, 12:32 PM
The emergence of Alex and perhaps Baker for 3-point shooting could also help Cam in the area of shot selection, as he realizes there are other 3-point threats available. Cam's mechanics could be a lot better and more consistent; IMO this is partly a function of strength and physical development; a stronger core would give him better balance. Love to have a time machine to see today what Cam can/could look like in 5 years or so. In spurts, we see some outstanding plays.

Cam's season has been so interesting to me because it seems to have flown in the face of his scouting report, coming in. He was said to be an extremely talented player who could lose focus and disappear on both sides of the ball for long stretches. Instead, he's consistently been one of the very best freshmen defenders we've had (along with Tre and Justise among the most recent outstanding frosh defenders) and if he has a flaw on offense, it's actually that he tries to do too much. Some of his best games have come when he's the "hockey assist" facilitator on offense, using his height to patiently read the defense before making a smart pass. Some of his worst moments have come when he's tried to be too assertive on offense and taken an ill-advised three or dribbled into trouble and turned the ball over. I completely agree with you that having another player or two on the court that can knock down threes could be really good for Cam. It could take some pressure off of him to make threes, give him additional targets to pass to on the perimeter for open shots, and (hopefully) encourage better shot selection.

dukebluesincebirth
02-25-2019, 12:34 PM
per Steve Wiseman, per Coach K. No surprise. Gotta get it done again without him! We can do this.

MChambers
02-25-2019, 12:37 PM
-As for 3 point shooting, journalists are starting to write about how teams lay 5 feet off Tre at all times...he's at under 20% on only 37 attempts...so they know he doesn't want to shoot and that he can't really shoot that shot. RJ is at 36% on nearly 100 attempts in ACC play. Give him a gold star! Cam is at 31% on 111 attempts...ugh. Still, I don't think teams will lay off him. Even at this poor clip, he rarely gets a feet-set, squared up clean look in rhythm. Hopefully the coaches can add some actions/wrinkles to get Cam some better looks...and he needs to at least try and get above 35%.

Tre also often seems unprepared to shoot when he catches the ball, probably because he's a pass-first player and he knows how poorly he's shooting. But given how much emphasis the Duke coaches place on being ready to shoot when you catch the ball, I'm surprised Tre isn't prepared.

White, to my eye, has also stopped being prepared to shoot, perhaps not surprisingly.

UrinalCake
02-25-2019, 12:46 PM
“Beat Duke and we’re in the tournament” has become an annual mantra for VT, they might as well put it in their alma mater. We’ll need to match their intensity for the full 40. Win this one and the ACC regular season will likely come down to the finale against the CHeats.

uh_no
02-25-2019, 12:49 PM
“Beat Duke and we’re in the tournament” has become an annual mantra for VT, they might as well put it in their alma mater. We’ll need to match their intensity for the full 40. Win this one and the ACC regular season will likely come down to the finale against the CHeats.

though it's usually wrong...since it should be "beat duke and then don't have a bunch of other bad losses"

VT should be in, though. They've beaten who they should, lost to who they should, for the most part, and have generally kept the losses close. They largely ran through their trash OOC schedule.

CDu
02-25-2019, 01:14 PM
though it's usually wrong...since it should be "beat duke and then don't have a bunch of other bad losses"

VT should be in, though. They've beaten who they should, lost to who they should, for the most part, and have generally kept the losses close. They largely ran through their trash OOC schedule.

They are almost certainly in already. 21-6 record, 10-5 in conference, 2-3 in Q1-A games (3-6 in Q1 overall), zero bad or even mediocre losses, 11th in KenPom. And a bunch of their losses came without their PG, who should be back by tourney play. It would be absolutely shocking if they missed the tourney, with or without a win against Duke. As it stands, they are like a 4 or 5 seed.

Wahoo2000
02-25-2019, 01:25 PM
IMO - there's *one* key for Duke in this one. Drive it relentlessly at Blackshear. Force him into a TON of contests at the rim and he's either going to the bench with foul trouble, or he's going to stop contesting strongly there. VT has no one else that can bother shots by longer guys like Barrett or Reddish at the rim, and no one else that can keep Duke's guys from dominating the glass.

I'm telling you, a quick 2 fouls on Blackshear and this game is OVER before it starts.

Hancock 4 Duke
02-25-2019, 01:32 PM
VT's lack of an inside presence bodes well for us, especially without Zion. Prepare for more RJ and Cam drives and alley oops (hopefully completed, this time) to Bolden and Javin.

budwom
02-25-2019, 01:48 PM
VT's lack of an inside presence bodes well for us, especially without Zion. Prepare for more RJ and Cam drives and alley oops (hopefully completed, this time) to Bolden and Javin.

But Blackshear is definitely > chopped liver, still have to deal with him...

MrPoon
02-25-2019, 01:53 PM
per Steve Wiseman, per Coach K. No surprise. Gotta get it done again without him! We can do this.

I’m guessing K knew that all along and has been planning accordingly. I’m a little surprised K tipped his hand in advance. No harm in preparing Duke’s game plan but making Tech prepare for him and without him.

Troublemaker
02-25-2019, 01:54 PM
VT's lack of an inside presence bodes well for us, especially without Zion. Prepare for more RJ and Cam drives and alley oops (hopefully completed, this time) to Bolden and Javin.

Blackshear might be the best center we've played all year. (Well, Gonzaga's Brandon Clarke, but he's forward-sized). Blackshear can post for scores, can shoot threes, and can pass to open teammates on backdoor cuts and open threes. He's well-rounded and really good.

Overall, VaTech's passing ability concerns me in this game. Just a beautiful passing team. They're going to get some easy scores / open looks on us, but as is sometimes the case with great passing teams, they can give up pick-sixes when they go for too much. Hopefully we can turn them over some.

budwom
02-25-2019, 01:59 PM
Blackshear might be the best center we've played all year. (Well, Gonzaga's Brandon Clarke, but he's forward-sized). Blackshear can post for scores, can shoot threes, and can pass to open teammates on backdoor cuts and open threes. He's well-rounded and really good.

Overall, VaTech's passing ability concerns me in this game. Just a beautiful passing team. They're going to get some easy scores / open looks on us, but as is sometimes the case with great passing teams, they can give up pick-sixes when they go for too much. Hopefully we can turn them over some.

I like the term pick sixes...is there such a thing as a pick two or three?

DukieInBrasil
02-25-2019, 02:00 PM
-Now that Baker is part of the picture, the AOC/Jack/Baker competition is really interesting. It would be amazing if one of them could emerge as a reliable near 40% 3 point shooter on 5-8 attempts per game while playing respectable defense and helping on the glass. Unlike Javin and Marques, I feel like we'd be better off if one of them could emerge just to bring some more stability to the rotation, but that is just a gut feeling. Maybe we'll be ok if at least one of them can contribute each night.

-As for 3 point shooting, journalists are starting to write about how teams lay 5 feet off Tre at all times...he's at under 20% on only 37 attempts...so they know he doesn't want to shoot and that he can't really shoot that shot. RJ is at 36% on nearly 100 attempts in ACC play. Give him a gold star! Cam is at 31% on 111 attempts...ugh. Still, I don't think teams will lay off him. Even at this poor clip, he rarely gets a feet-set, squared up clean look in rhythm. Hopefully the coaches can add some actions/wrinkles to get Cam some better looks...and he needs to at least try and get above 35%.


Heck, if all 3 of them can combine for 40% on 5-8 3FGs per game that would be great. In fact, when Jack was playing more minutes, he and Alex combined for 140 3FGA in 27 games, or 5.2/game. AOC shooting 8 the other night was a bit of an aberration, as was Jack going 0-10 vs SYR a while ago. Getting 40% on 8 3FGs from that trio, would be a welcome aspect for this team.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-25-2019, 02:06 PM
Heck, if all 3 of them can combine for 40% on 5-8 3FGs per game that would be great. In fact, when Jack was playing more minutes, he and Alex combined for 140 3FGA in 27 games, or 5.2/game. AOC shooting 8 the other night was a bit of an aberration, as was Jack going 0-10 vs SYR a while ago. Getting 40% on 8 3FGs from that trio, would be a welcome aspect for this team.

And I believe Jack was something like 21-51 to start the season - before the Syracuse debacle. So that's a smidge over 40

Billy Dat
02-25-2019, 02:07 PM
Heck, if all 3 of them can combine for 40% on 5-8 3FGs per game that would be great. In fact, when Jack was playing more minutes, he and Alex combined for 140 3FGA in 27 games, or 5.2/game. AOC shooting 8 the other night was a bit of an aberration, as was Jack going 0-10 vs SYR a while ago. Getting 40% on 8 3FGs from that trio, would be a welcome aspect for this team.

Yeah, I am starting to have 'Moneyball' style thoughts about this team...after our primary stars, maybe it doesn't matter where the other stuff comes from as long as it comes from somewhere...the 'Moneyball' connection being "we don't need to replace 3 stars with 3 new stars, we need to replace their production in aggregate across a bunch of players." We may not get predictable production from the individual non-Baker-freshmen but hopefully, each game, we'll get what we need in the aggregate from the other 6 guys. Maybe it will make us harder to prepare for?

robed deity
02-25-2019, 02:12 PM
Blackshear might be the best center we've played all year. (Well, Gonzaga's Brandon Clarke, but he's forward-sized). Blackshear can post for scores, can shoot threes, and can pass to open teammates on backdoor cuts and open threes. He's well-rounded and really good.

Overall, VaTech's passing ability concerns me in this game. Just a beautiful passing team. They're going to get some easy scores / open looks on us, but as is sometimes the case with great passing teams, they can give up pick-sixes when they go for too much. Hopefully we can turn them over some.

Blackshear is a stud. Without Robinson, the others have been inconsistent. But at home and vs Duke, I expect they will bring it, especially Alexander-Walker. Duke will need to play really well.

Kedsy
02-25-2019, 02:14 PM
It would be amazing if one of them could emerge as a reliable near 40% 3 point shooter on 5-8 attempts per game while playing respectable defense and helping on the glass.

It may be possible for one of those guys to put up 5 to 8 three-attempts per game while Zion is out, but I think it's pretty unlikely to happen regularly once he comes back. For that to happen, our offense would have to radically change and one of those guys would have to suddenly start playing starters minutes.

Alex put up 8 three-attempts against Syracuse, but Syracuse is kind of a special case. In our two Syracuse games we launched more than 50% of our shots from three-range. Against everyone else it was more like 37%, for an average of under 24 three-attempts per game. RJ and Cam average more than 14 three-attempts per game and that's not likely to drop. Zion and Tre each put up a couple per game, meaning on a normal night there would only be six additional attempts available (unless we change our offense to become a lot more reliant on threes, which seems very unlikely, or unless RJ and Cam start deferring on long-distance shots), essentially meaning one of Jack/Alex/Joey would have to take pretty much all of the remaining threes.

Right now, Alex averages 6.9 three-attempts per 40 minutes and Jack averages 5.3 per 40. So unless those numbers go way up, Alex would have to play around 30 mpg (probably the same for Joey) or Jack would have to either play all 40 or up his shooting output significantly. Even assuming one of the three guys emerges as the one who plays (and the other two are glued to the bench), once Zion is back it's hard to see our 7th man playing 30 to 40 minutes on a regular basis.


Heck, if all 3 of them can combine for 40% on 5-8 3FGs per game that would be great. In fact, when Jack was playing more minutes, he and Alex combined for 140 3FGA in 27 games, or 5.2/game. AOC shooting 8 the other night was a bit of an aberration, as was Jack going 0-10 vs SYR a while ago. Getting 40% on 8 3FGs from that trio, would be a welcome aspect for this team.

Yeah, this is a lot more likely, though in most games still probably on the lower end of that range (i.e., closer to 5 three-attempts per game rather than 8).

Saratoga2
02-25-2019, 02:29 PM
I’m guessing K knew that all along and has been planning accordingly. I’m a little surprised K tipped his hand in advance. No harm in preparing Duke’s game plan but making Tech prepare for him and without him.

Coach k probably did know all along how he would handle Zion's injury and also how the Jack White situation was playing out. Maybe those two combined are what resulted in Joey Baker getting the call to play. Just the need for quality manpower.

CDu
02-25-2019, 02:30 PM
It may be possible for one of those guys to put up 5 to 8 three-attempts per game while Zion is out, but I think it's pretty unlikely to happen regularly once he comes back. For that to happen, our offense would have to radically change and one of those guys would have to suddenly start playing starters minutes.

Alex put up 8 three-attempts against Syracuse, but Syracuse is kind of a special case. In our two Syracuse games we launched more than 50% of our shots from three-range. Against everyone else it was more like 37%, for an average of under 24 three-attempts per game. RJ and Cam average more than 14 three-attempts per game and that's not likely to drop. Zion and Tre each put up a couple per game, meaning on a normal night there would only be six additional attempts available (unless we change our offense to become a lot more reliant on threes, which seems very unlikely, or unless RJ and Cam start deferring on long-distance shots), essentially meaning one of Jack/Alex/Joey would have to take pretty much all of the remaining threes.

Right now, Alex averages 6.9 three-attempts per 40 minutes and Jack averages 5.3 per 40. So unless those numbers go way up, Alex would have to play around 30 mpg (probably the same for Joey) or Jack would have to either play all 40 or up his shooting output significantly. Even assuming one of the three guys emerges as the one who plays (and the other two are glued to the bench), once Zion is back it's hard to see our 7th man playing 30 to 40 minutes on a regular basis.



Yeah, this is a lot more likely, though in most games still probably on the lower end of that range (i.e., closer to 5 three-attempts per game rather than 8).

Yeah, O'Connell and White had combined for 124 3pt attempts in the previous 25 games before Williamson got hurt, or roughly 5 per game. Since 2019 rolled around, the trio of White, O'Connell, and Goldwire have attempted 4.3 3s per game in the 11 games prior to UNC. So it wouldn't require an outlandishly large change of strategy for the trio of White/O'Connell/Baker to average 5 attempts per game once Williamson returns (and I'd downright expect at least that much until he returns). Especially if more minutes start going to O'Connell and Baker, who are in theory the shooting specialists.

Now, I certainly don't think 8 attempts per game for the trio is reasonable. But an average of 5 wouldn't be out of the question.

Troublemaker
02-25-2019, 02:48 PM
Rooting hard for Alex to back up his Cuse game with another good game against VaTech.

As y'all probably know, I've been obsessed with Duke being able to use a death lineup to finish games. I always thought it'd be Jack + the 4 main frosh, but if it's Alex, so be it. (Obviously Zion has to get healthy, too.)

Mak P
02-25-2019, 03:12 PM
I haven't watched VA Tech, but the problem I've seen is against teams that like to push the pace and capitalize off turnovers. It doesn't help our guys go through fatigue stretches from playing so many minutes, but if they're that type of team, could be a problem. I said it before play your bench, to at-least get guys a breather. What we did against Cuse, I would do the exact same thing against VA Tech. Don't panic when guys make mistakes. Are we on the verge of being down 10? If not let them play.

thedukelamere
02-25-2019, 04:18 PM
Rooting hard for Alex to back up his Cuse game with another good game against VaTech.

As y'all probably know, I've been obsessed with Duke being able to use a death lineup to finish games. I always thought it'd be Jack + the 4 main frosh, but if it's Alex, so be it. (Obviously Zion has to get healthy, too.)

Are you talking about our offensive or defensive death lineup? Because one has JGold and the other has AOC ;)

Devilwin
02-25-2019, 04:35 PM
Feed Bolden and let's hope he can get Blacksheare in foul trouble. We are gonna need Bolden for sure.

Kedsy
02-25-2019, 04:45 PM
I haven't watched VA Tech, but the problem I've seen is against teams that like to push the pace and capitalize off turnovers. It doesn't help our guys go through fatigue stretches from playing so many minutes, but if they're that type of team, could be a problem.

First of all, Virginia Tech is one of the slowest-paced teams in the country (rank 331st in adjusted tempo out of 353 teams).

Second, what do you mean, "the problem I've seen"? Other than in the UNC game, we've only played three teams with top 50 tempos (NCSU, St. Johns, and Yale), and we won all three of those games by an average of 26+ points. And in the UNC game, the "problem" I saw was Zion getting hurt 33 seconds into the game. When did you see your observed problem?

Bob Green
02-25-2019, 05:10 PM
Congratulations to CDu:

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2019/2/25/18239344/a-daily-feather-for-a-virginia-tech-preview-zion-williamson-rj-barrett-cam-reddish-tre-jones

:cool:

CDu
02-25-2019, 05:50 PM
Congratulations to CDu:

https://www.dukebasketballreport.com/2019/2/25/18239344/a-daily-feather-for-a-virginia-tech-preview-zion-williamson-rj-barrett-cam-reddish-tre-jones

:cool:

Oh wow, I am famous! ��. Thanks for the heads-up Bob. I just wish it was for one that didn’t have such as massive editing fail on my part!

MChambers
02-26-2019, 07:56 AM
Can't believe this was about to fall off the first page! Game today!

sagegrouse
02-26-2019, 08:25 AM
From the Front page story on the game tonight:

"Joey Beard, no longer a redshirt candidate, offers depth depth and a dangerous shooter."

I believe the first part of this sentence is true, but I hope Ol' Joey isn't "armed and dangerous."

UrinalCake
02-26-2019, 09:33 AM
Joey Beard - now that would be an unexpected lineup change for sure!

I am surprisingly worried about this game. They’re still a top-20 team and we’re playing on the road. This is the exact part of the schedule where we tend to take a loss. I also have a crazy premonition that Robinson is going to play; he’s been out for like three weeks now and Buzz Williams hasn’t said anything publicly, I think it’s gamesmanship and he’s going to surprise us. We know that Barrett will get his, but will a second or third scorer show up? Can we defend the perimeter without giving up a layup line under the basket? Will VT go off from three like they are capable of? Lots to be concerned about.

DavidBenAkiva
02-26-2019, 09:34 AM
Word from Blacksburg is that Justin Robinson is not expected to play tonight (https://www.richmond.com/sports/college/schools/virginia-tech/no-zion-and-no-justin-robinson-but-other-stars-aim/article_6c4c812c-3d09-549b-b328-0a6eaef4406e.html)

DavidBenAkiva
02-26-2019, 09:37 AM
Joey Beard - now that would be an unexpected lineup change for sure!

I am surprisingly worried about this game. They’re still a top-20 team and we’re playing on the road. This is the exact part of the schedule where we tend to take a loss. I also have a crazy premonition that Robinson is going to play; he’s been out for like three weeks now and Buzz Williams hasn’t said anything publicly, I think it’s gamesmanship and he’s going to surprise us. We know that Barrett will get his, but will a second or third scorer show up? Can we defend the perimeter without giving up a layup line under the basket? Will VT go off from three like they are capable of? Lots to be concerned about.

I don't buy into the notion that this is when Duke is "supposed to take a loss." This team has won all but one game when playing at full strength. Even in conference play, the only two losses were in OT without 2 starters and then a loss to a Top 5-10 team when another starter, the National Player of the Year, got injured. Duke has been up to play and defeat everyone this season. They bring it every night. Injuries haven't been an excuse. I expect a tough game because VA Tech and their fans will want to beat Duke. But I expect Duke to bring its own toughness to this matchup as well.

Kfanarmy
02-26-2019, 09:52 AM
Is Justin Robinson not playing? If he's not, I feel pretty darn good about this game -- with or without Zion. VT shoots the three-ball very well (except against UVA, where multiple wide-open looks went halfway down and spit back out). NAW is a solid player but unspectacular. Blackshear is solid, but he's got nobody behind him. He'll be gassed.

Of course, VT can come out and shoot the lights out and run us out of the building. But if Robinson isn't playing, it'll take a huge effort to beat this Duke team.

IDK if #50 plays it is probably a good sign for Duke.

UrinalCake
02-26-2019, 09:57 AM
I don't buy into the notion that this is when Duke is "supposed to take a loss."

What I meant is that historically Duke takes a loss in a road game near the end of the regular season, usually to a good-but-not-great team they are expected to beat but who plays out of their mind.

2/26/18 Duke 63, VT 64
2/22/17 Duke 75, Syracuse 78
2/25/17 Duke 50, Miami 55
2/28/16 Duke 62, Pitt 76
2/25/15 Duke 91, VT 86 (went to OT)
3/5/14 Duke 72, Wake 82

weezie
02-26-2019, 09:57 AM
hokies play in a dump. Poor sight lines around basket, very dark in the arena and the sound is dead. A glorified Quonset hut.
And it smells.

Just like to add that every year.

jv001
02-26-2019, 10:14 AM
hokies play in a dump. Poor sight lines around basket, very dark in the arena and the sound is dead. A glorified Quonset hut.
And it smells.

Just like to add that every year.

weezie, why don't you tell us how you really feel about the Hokie's arena(dump). Quonset hut brought back Army memories. :cool:GoDuke!

roywhite
02-26-2019, 10:31 AM
Some history from Wiki:

Virginia Tech's sports teams are called the "Hokies". The word "Hokie" originated in the "Old Hokie" spirit yell created in 1896 by O. M. Stull for a contest which was held to select a new spirit yell when the college's name was changed from Virginia Agricultural and Mechanical College (VAMC) to Virginia Agricultural and Mechanical College and Polytechnic Institute (VPI) and the original spirit yell, which referred to the old name, was no longer usable. Stull won, and received a $5 award.

Hoki, Hoki, Hoki, Hy.
Techs, Techs, VPI!
Sola-Rex, Sola-Rah.
Polytechs—Vir-gin-ia.
Rae, Ri, V.P.I

Later, the phrase "Team! Team! Team!" was added at the end, and an "e" was added to "Hoki".

Stull later said that he made up the word as an attention-grabber. Though he may not have known it, "Hokie" (in its various forms) has been around at least since 1842. According to Johann Norstedt, now a retired Virginia Tech English professor, "[Hokie was] a word that people used to express feeling, approval, excitement, surprise. Hokie, then, is a word like 'hooray', or 'yeah', or 'rah'." Whatever its original meaning, the word in the popular cheer did, as Stull wanted, grab attention and has been a part of Virginia Tech tradition ever since.[3]

The team mascot is the HokieBird, a turkey-like creature. The teams were originally known as the "Fighting Gobblers," and the turkey motif was retained despite the name change.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Tech_Hokies#Name_origins_and_history

tteettimes
02-26-2019, 10:32 AM
hokies play in a dump. Poor sight lines around basket, very dark in the arena and the sound is dead. A glorified Quonset hut.
And it smells.

Just like to add that every year.


Uuuuhhhhh.....makes me want to take a shower

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 10:35 AM
The team mascot is the HokieBird, a turkey-like creature. The teams were originally known as the "Fighting Gobblers," and the turkey motif was retained despite the name change. [/I]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Tech_Hokies#Name_origins_and_history

Yes, from my days as a wee laddie, I remember VPI and simply "the Gobblers." Have an older bros, much older, who got his PhD up there, while the two Strocks (one QB who later played for the Dolphins, and one kicker, no relation according to some, but it appears they are) played for the Gobbler's football team. One was Dave and one was Don...I think the QB was Don but not sure.

DukieInKansas
02-26-2019, 10:39 AM
weezie, why don't you tell us how you really feel about the Hokie's arena(dump). Quonset hut brought back Army memories. :cool:GoDuke!

And my first gym in Korea. Was happy when they built the new gym.

moonpie23
02-26-2019, 10:42 AM
Oh wow, I am famous! ��. Thanks for the heads-up Bob. I just wish it was for one that didn’t have such as massive editing fail on my part!

You must spread some Comments around before commenting on CDu again.

sagegrouse
02-26-2019, 10:50 AM
hokies play in a dump. Poor sight lines around basket, very dark in the arena and the sound is dead. A glorified Quonset hut.
And it smells.

Just like to add that every year.

Weezie, you have described a barn, and Virginia Tech is an ag school. What's the problem?

IrishDevil
02-26-2019, 10:52 AM
Some history from Wiki:

Virginia Tech's sports teams are called the "Hokies". The word "Hokie" originated in the "Old Hokie" spirit yell created in 1896 by O. M. Stull for a contest which was held to select a new spirit yell when the college's name was changed from Virginia Agricultural and Mechanical College (VAMC) to Virginia Agricultural and Mechanical College and Polytechnic Institute (VPI) and the original spirit yell, which referred to the old name, was no longer usable. Stull won, and received a $5 award.

Hoki, Hoki, Hoki, Hy.
Techs, Techs, VPI!
Sola-Rex, Sola-Rah.
Polytechs—Vir-gin-ia.
Rae, Ri, V.P.I

Later, the phrase "Team! Team! Team!" was added at the end, and an "e" was added to "Hoki".

Stull later said that he made up the word as an attention-grabber. Though he may not have known it, "Hokie" (in its various forms) has been around at least since 1842. According to Johann Norstedt, now a retired Virginia Tech English professor, "[Hokie was] a word that people used to express feeling, approval, excitement, surprise. Hokie, then, is a word like 'hooray', or 'yeah', or 'rah'." Whatever its original meaning, the word in the popular cheer did, as Stull wanted, grab attention and has been a part of Virginia Tech tradition ever since.[3]

The team mascot is the HokieBird, a turkey-like creature. The teams were originally known as the "Fighting Gobblers," and the turkey motif was retained despite the name change.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Tech_Hokies#Name_origins_and_history

No wonder the UVA/Tech rivalry is so fierce, it's a contest between the Wahoos and the Horays to be the dominant exclamation in Virginia.

left_hook_lacey
02-26-2019, 11:01 AM
Wow, we're only -3.5 favorite with VT's best player on the sidelines? That's interesting.

75% are choosing Duke at the moment.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 11:05 AM
Wow, we're only -3.5 favorite with VT's best player on the sidelines? That's interesting.

75% are choosing Duke at the moment.

Well, our best player is on the sidelines too....and that arena has been house of horrors for us often.

DavidBenAkiva
02-26-2019, 11:16 AM
What I meant is that historically Duke takes a loss in a road game near the end of the regular season, usually to a good-but-not-great team they are expected to beat but who plays out of their mind.

2/26/18 Duke 63, VT 64
2/22/17 Duke 75, Syracuse 78
2/25/17 Duke 50, Miami 55
2/28/16 Duke 62, Pitt 76
2/25/15 Duke 91, VT 86 (went to OT)
3/5/14 Duke 72, Wake 82

Even with that history, it has no bearing on this team.

I'm writing this and now the sports fan in me feels like I am putting a hex on the team tonight.

Indoor66
02-26-2019, 12:04 PM
Yes, from my days as a wee laddie, I remember VPI and simply "the Gobblers." Have an older bros, much older, who got his PhD up there, while the two Strocks (one QB who later played for the Dolphins, and one kicker, no relation according to some, but it appears they are) played for the Gobbler's football team. One was Dave and one was Don...I think the QB was Don but not sure.

You are correct. The QB was Don. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Strock)

roywhite
02-26-2019, 12:22 PM
Even with that history, it has no bearing on this team.I'm writing this and now the sports fan in me feels like I am putting a hex on the team tonight.

Well, perhaps the general circumstances are relevant. A highly motivated team (whether it be for tournament eligibility, seeding, or a signature win to save a season) playing at home in late February against a highly ranked team that might be looking ahead to tournament time. Does seem to point to high potential for an upset.

rtnorthrup
02-26-2019, 12:30 PM
Really looking forward to this game as a test to see where we are right now without Zion. VaTech plays pretty good defense, and a totally different system than Syracuse. I expect another great game from RJ, but looking to see who steps up tonight. I'm thinking Bolden, but we shall see.

jv001
02-26-2019, 12:32 PM
Looks like Duke is a 3.5 point favorite in Vegas lines. I thought we would be in for a close game and the odds makers seem to agree. I'm not about to put the hex on our guys, so I'll keep my mouth shut. GoDuke!

Troublemaker
02-26-2019, 02:02 PM
I took VaTech +4.5 in the Degenerates league.

Just have a gut feeling the Hokies are going to pick us apart for both layups and open threes with their beautiful PNR passing, and they're going to punish us with the fast break every time we're slow to get back in transition or give them a turnover. Duke is going to hit a decent rate on threes tonight but still come up short, I'm afraid. At least I'll gain +1050 on most of the Degenerates after we lose tonight. (And if we win by 5 more or more, I'll deserve to yield -1050 on most of the league for doubting Duke).

Would love to be wrong. (And especially thrilled if Duke wins by 3, haha :-).

CDu
02-26-2019, 02:22 PM
I took VaTech +4.5 in the Degenerates league.

Just have a gut feeling the Hokies are going to pick us apart for both layups and open threes with their beautiful PNR passing, and they're going to punish us with the fast break every time we're slow to get back in transition or give them a turnover. Duke is going to hit a decent rate on threes tonight but still come up short, I'm afraid. At least I'll gain +1050 on most of the Degenerates after we lose tonight. (And if we win by 5 more or more, I'll deserve to yield -1050 on most of the league for doubting Duke).

Would love to be wrong. (And especially thrilled if Duke wins by 3, haha :-).

Thank you for hedging. Important to take one for the team! :)

Seriously though, I think the confidence interval for this game has to be all over the map. We don't know what our lineup will look like, and we don't know how well Va Tech will play against our defense without their PG, etc. Williams is an excellent Xs and Os coach and could very well gameplan a perfect use of Alexander-Walker and Blackshear (with their myriad wings knocking down open 3s). Or the on-ball pressure of Jones and Reddish may make life difficult enough that we win comfortably.

We still have the best player on the floor, and three of the top 4 or 5 players on the floor. But it could go either way. I realize that's not insightful analysis, but this team without Zion and with the introduction of Baker seems to have a really wide range of possible outcomes.

Troublemaker
02-26-2019, 03:44 PM
Hmm, looks like VaTech put up 120 offensive efficiency against Syracuse this season in a blowout win, albeit with a healthy Justin Robinson who scored 35 in that game.

This is relevant because we might need to resort to zone today to win. If VaTech's hitting cutters all over the place for layups, Coach K will have to change things up and hope for the best.

This is such a high possibility -- that VaTech will slice and dice Duke with cutters and PNRs -- that I now somewhat regret picking the Over for this game in Degenerates. Obviously if Duke goes zone especially as early as the 1st half, it will reduce possessions and point things towards the Under. (Of course, if the zone isn't effective and VaTech performs 120 offensive efficiency on it, maybe the Over hits, anyway.)

CDu
02-26-2019, 04:12 PM
Hmm, looks like VaTech put up 120 offensive efficiency against Syracuse this season in a blowout win, albeit with a healthy Justin Robinson who scored 35 in that game.

This is relevant because we might need to resort to zone today to win. If VaTech's hitting cutters all over the place for layups, Coach K will have to change things up and hope for the best.

This is such a high possibility -- that VaTech will slice and dice Duke with cutters and PNRs -- that I now somewhat regret picking the Over for this game in Degenerates. Obviously if Duke goes zone especially as early as the 1st half, it will reduce possessions and point things towards the Under. (Of course, if the zone isn't effective and VaTech performs 120 offensive efficiency on it, maybe the Over hits, anyway.)

In the 7 games this season without Robinson, Va Tech has put up unadjusted offensive efficiencies of 0.88, 1.02, 0.88, 1.22, 1.14, 0.98, and 1.04, for an unadjusted OEff of 1.03 overall. The only good performances came against Ga Tech and Pitt. Furthermore, they don't have a lot of guys who can attack off the dribble without Robinson. So I don't know why we'd be fired up about switching to zone against them. Especially given how well they shoot the 3 almost across the board. I would expect us to go with switches fairly frequently if they set a lot of screens off-ball. But I would in general be more inclined to force Va Tech to adjust to our defense rather than us adjust to their offense.

[Unless this is a continued effort to reverse-jinx, in which case ignore me :)]

DBGoins
02-26-2019, 04:13 PM
My question is who is going to be effective at guarding Blackshear with Zion out of the lineup. I'll look for Jav to play a big role in trying to guard him if he can stay out of foul trouble.

I agree with Trouble, I think they are going to try and cut us up and we may have to fall back into a zone.

Again, I think we are going to have to go with a smaller lineup against VT.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-26-2019, 04:18 PM
My question is who is going to be effective at guarding Blackshear with Zion out of the lineup..

Hopefully MarJavin DeBoldenovic....

robed deity
02-26-2019, 04:22 PM
Hopefully MarJavin DeBoldenovich....

Not to be confused with Boban Marjanovic...

MrPoon
02-26-2019, 04:35 PM
I’m surprised by the pessimism.
RJ doesn’t lose on the road, I believe there is a quote why.

Cam will be important of course but I think he has a real opportunity this game with a full week w/o Z to find his rhythm. His D and rebounding especially. His length is a real asset at this level. It’s not in the game plan be his length can switch even on to Blackshear on the perimeter. I also expect him to score better than the SY game (not hard).
Bolden/Javin need to defend the 3 from their center spot better than Duke has in past games. But K knows that already.
Buzz is a good coach and his teams have been a handful the last few years.
Also interested in the AOC role. He’s contributions were not expected and while he is clearly working hard at it, his D is suboptimal and Buzz will attack it. Baker’s roll will be interesting too. Five more mins spelling AOC? Or more. With Zion out I think K will have RJ and Tre hitting the shooters a bit more. Hopefully it works.
Tre turns ‘em over and a close game ends up pulling away late. Can’t wait. If Duke finishes this stretch 5-1, 3 without Z, holy cow!

JStuart
02-26-2019, 04:43 PM
I’m surprised by the pessimism.
RJ doesn’t lose on the road, I believe there is a quote why.

Cam will be important of course but I think he has a real opportunity this game with a full week w/o Z to find his rhythm. His D and rebounding especially. His length is a real asset at this level. It’s not in the game plan be his length can switch even on to Blackshear on the perimeter. I also expect him to score better than the SY game (not hard).
Bolden/Javin need to defend the 3 from their center spot better than Duke has in past games. But K knows that already.
Buzz is a good coach and his teams have been a handful the last few years.
Also interested in the AOC role. He’s contributions were not expected and while he is clearly working hard at it, his D is suboptimal and Buzz will attack it. Baker’s roll will be interesting too. Five more mins spelling AOC? Or more. With Zion out I think K will have RJ and Tre hitting the shooters a bit more. Hopefully it works.
Tre turns ‘em over and a close game ends up pulling away late. Can’t wait. If Duke finishes this stretch 5-1, 3 without Z, holy cow!

I see what you did there....I like it.

Kedsy
02-26-2019, 04:44 PM
Baker’s roll will be interesting too. Five more mins spelling AOC?

It’s only three letters. It shouldn’t take him that long.

Phredd3
02-26-2019, 04:45 PM
It’s only three letters. It shouldn’t take him that long.

Ba-dump, Ching! Kedsy will be here all night, folks!

Kedsy
02-26-2019, 04:47 PM
Ba-dump, Ching! Kedsy will be here all night, folks!

Try the veal.

Or maybe, in honor of tonight’s game, the turkey.

Fish80
02-26-2019, 04:58 PM
Try the veal.

Or maybe, in honor of tonight’s game, the turkey.

I humbly suggest waiting until 9:00 pm to feast on Turkey. We don’t need no jinxes!

Phredd3
02-26-2019, 05:26 PM
I humbly suggest waiting until 9:00 pm to feast on Turkey. We don’t need no jinxes!

Oh, we'll TRY the turkey. It remains to be seen whether or not we like it enough to call it a feast.

-jk
02-26-2019, 05:39 PM
Oh, we'll TRY the turkey. It remains to be seen whether or not we like it enough to call it a feast.

Turkey needs really careful cooking. Fortunately, we have a really good chef!

-jk

-jk
02-26-2019, 06:26 PM
And: DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

WHOneedsSOX
02-26-2019, 07:03 PM
This camera angle is horrendous.

slower
02-26-2019, 07:05 PM
Ominous start already. Please, no Bad Cam.

Okay, that jumper was sweet.

scottdude8
02-26-2019, 07:06 PM
Great to see Jack first off the bench today. Hopefully Saturday was just a mental health day.

slower
02-26-2019, 07:15 PM
Man, that Kentucky game (and team) seems like a very distant memory.

thedukelamere
02-26-2019, 07:17 PM
Raise your hand if you ever envisioned a lineup of Tre, Jav, Ques, AOC and Joey in a tightly contested ACC road game. Also, please report to HR for a completely random drug test.

InSpades
02-26-2019, 07:18 PM
If I told you we'd have a lineup in of Jones, O'Connell, Baker, DeLaurier and Bolden... would you have believed me a week ago? :).

CDu
02-26-2019, 07:19 PM
Man, that Kentucky game (and team) seems like a very distant memory.

Losing Zion will do that. Also, road game against veteran team.

CDu
02-26-2019, 07:21 PM
I don’t think I have ever heard a home crowd give the buzzer sound to their own team before!

slower
02-26-2019, 07:22 PM
Losing Zion will do that. Also, road game against veteran team.

I get that. Regardless of the reasons, the team looks pretty psychologically fragile at the moment. I mean, maybe there's another second-half improvement coming, but...

CDu
02-26-2019, 07:23 PM
I get that. Regardless of the reasons, the team looks pretty psychologically fragile at the moment. I mean, maybe there's another second-half improvement coming, but...

Yeah, Jones and Reddish have taken steps backwards. Hopefully they get it right.

slower
02-26-2019, 07:28 PM
Yeah, Jones and Reddish have taken steps backwards. Hopefully they get it right.

Jack looking better-ish.

CDu
02-26-2019, 07:28 PM
Jack looking better-ish.

He has been terrific tonight so far. Arguably our best player early.

scottdude8
02-26-2019, 07:30 PM
This defense Va Tech is playing is so bizarre. It’s clearly not man to man, but they aren’t sticking with any clear zone structure. It’s almost like a matchup box-and-1 against RJ. Give K some time to read and adjust to this odd defense and we’ll be fine, and so far it looks like our D will give us that time.

CDu
02-26-2019, 07:38 PM
This defense Va Tech is playing is so bizarre. It’s clearly not man to man, but they aren’t sticking with any clear zone structure. It’s almost like a matchup box-and-1 against RJ. Give K some time to read and adjust to this odd defense and we’ll be fine, and so far it looks like our D will give us that time.

They play a matchup zone.

downeastdad
02-26-2019, 07:38 PM
These announcers are making me wish for Bilas and Vitale.

arnie
02-26-2019, 07:40 PM
These announcers are making me wish for Bilas and Vitale.

No, no, no on changing announcers. We’re not forcing any TOs despite lots of deflections. Need to change that.

Mak P
02-26-2019, 07:42 PM
Tre is playing too many mins

carteretdevil
02-26-2019, 07:47 PM
Tre is not playing well tonight. I agree let Jordan give him a breather

slower
02-26-2019, 07:48 PM
If Bolden's going to shoot jump shots, we're in major trouble. This just isn't a Top 10 team right now.

carteretdevil
02-26-2019, 07:49 PM
Zion out, RJ in single digits and down 5- we can regroup at half and bring this homw

DUKIECB
02-26-2019, 07:50 PM
Jack White may never make another 3 in his career.

WHOneedsSOX
02-26-2019, 07:50 PM
Zion out, RJ in single digits and down 5- we can regroup at half and bring this homw

Has RJ shot a single 2 point shot yet? Actually maybe just that one where White followed.

Dub
02-26-2019, 07:53 PM
If Bolden's going to shoot jump shots, we're in major trouble. This just isn't a Top 10 team right now.

Seriously?!? We’re 24-3, undefeated on the road, and basically top 5 in every major ranking system, but this isn’t a top 10 team?!? Probably time for you to take a break from the in-game thread for the night.

godins
02-26-2019, 07:54 PM
Jack White may never make another 3 in his career.

Pie bet?

SCMatt33
02-26-2019, 07:56 PM
RJ I think tried 3 drives all half. One got a foul, one got a white follow, and one got the bucket at the end. Way too much setting for not just threes but contested threes and threes off the dribble. Only forced 4 turnovers and none led to a runout, meanwhile gave up several run outs of our own.

To be down just 3 against a ranked team on the road with all of that is a minor miracle.

DUKIECB
02-26-2019, 07:57 PM
Pie bet?

Obviously I think he will eventually make one but my goodness I've never seen a player this much in his head trying to shoot the basketball.

Fish80
02-26-2019, 07:58 PM
We are in good shape. They are not deep. We are alarmingly deep, Baker deep. Buckle your seat belts, the second half is going to be a show!

robed deity
02-26-2019, 07:59 PM
Obviously I think he will eventually make one but my goodness I've never seen a player this much in his head trying to shoot the basketball.

Obviously, it doesn't mean anything unless you make'em, but I thought both of those were shot with confidence. And that hasn't always been the case in this 0-27.

ncexnyc
02-26-2019, 08:02 PM
Just need to clean-up a few things and we'll be fine.

I honestly thought that first 3pt attempt from Jack was the best looking one he's had in quite some time. To bad it didn't stay down.

CDu
02-26-2019, 08:02 PM
Defense has been solid. Not great but solid. Offense has been poor. Fortunate a few shots went down, but we need to take better care of the ball. We need to be the ones getting transition points, not the other way around.

But just down 3 with Barrett having an awful half and with several sloppy team turnovers is not bad. Hopefully both of those things change in the second.

slower
02-26-2019, 08:07 PM
Seriously?!? We’re 24-3, undefeated on the road, and basically top 5 in every major ranking system, but this isn’t a top 10 team?!? Probably time for you to take a break from the in-game thread for the night.

Granted, my standards may be unreasonably high. :p

But I'm sorry, the offense is just ugly to watch right now. D keeping us in it. As I said earlier, it's a LONG way from the Kentucky game/team. It's much more than just losing Zion.

jv001
02-26-2019, 08:12 PM
The few VT games I've checked in on, Blackshear has gotten in foul trouble. But we don't seem to want to get the ball down low to Marques. The times we did, it turned out ok. Javin had a layup off an OB but had his head down and didn't know he was open. We probably could get RJ the ball in the post area or even down low but he's roaming around outside. Need a better game plan for the 2nd half. GoDuke!

arnie
02-26-2019, 08:18 PM
The few VT games I've checked in on, Blackshear has gotten in foul trouble. But we don't seem to want to get the ball down low to Marques. The times we did, it turned out ok. Javin had a layup off an OB but had his head down and didn't know he was open. We probably could get RJ the ball in the post area or even down low but he's roaming around outside. Need a better game plan for the 2nd half. GoDuke!

VPI fans boo every obvious call against them? Guess they don’t get b-ball.

kAzE
02-26-2019, 08:20 PM
Every one of these wide open corner 3 bricks from Jack is destroying me emotionally.

jipops
02-26-2019, 08:20 PM
We’ve been a 2nd half team all year. Hopefully that holds true tonight. But there isn’t much getting around how bad the offense is now, and actually has been for awhile.

-jk
02-26-2019, 08:21 PM
Every one of these wide open corner 3 bricks from Jack is destroying me emotionally.

He’ll get it back!

-jk

Dub
02-26-2019, 08:24 PM
I’m baffled why AOC isn’t playing more of Jack’s minutes this game. That corner is wide open all game and everyone in the building knows Jack’s not hitting that shot. I get the intangibles but Alex was hot last game and hit his first one this game. K knows better than me but my goodness.

Steven43
02-26-2019, 08:26 PM
Obviously I think he will eventually make one but my goodness I've never seen a player this much in his head trying to shoot the basketball.

There it is again. Lots of armchair psychiatrists on DBR. Maybe you’re right; maybe it is all psychological. But I don’t really believe that to be true. I think his technique is just a little bit off. Perhaps I’ve missed some comments from him or something he has done on the court to indicate that it’s psychological. Who knows?

Fish80
02-26-2019, 08:28 PM
There it is again. Lots of armchair psychiatrists on DBR. Maybe you’re right; maybe it is all psychological. But I don’t really believe that to be true. I think his technique is just a little bit off. Perhaps I’ve missed some comments from him or something he has done on the court to indicate that it’s psychological. Who knows?

You don’t see with your eye, you perceive with your mind.

slower
02-26-2019, 08:29 PM
You don’t see with your eye, you perceive with your mind.
Unless you can do neither. ;)

arnie
02-26-2019, 08:29 PM
There it is again. Lots of armchair psychiatrists on DBR. Maybe you’re right; maybe it is all psychological. But I don’t really believe that to be true. I think his technique is just a little bit off. Perhaps I’ve missed some comments from him or something he has done on the court to indicate that it’s psychological. Who knows?

Doubt there’s been many (if any) 0 for 30 streaks from 3 in NCAA history. Hope he doesn’t cross that line.

wavedukefan70s
02-26-2019, 08:29 PM
Smh maybe Baker will get a few.

dukelion
02-26-2019, 08:30 PM
Don't understand the tactics tonight.....Javin and Bolden together for long stretches?

No AOC or Baker but lots of run for Jack.

This one feels over......like K is just tinkering for something later in the season.

One of the worst games this season IMO.

wavedukefan70s
02-26-2019, 08:31 PM
Don't understand the tactics tonight....Javin and Bolden together for long stretches?

No AOC or Baker but lots of run for Jack.

This one feels over...like K is just tinkering for something later in the season.

One of the worst games this season IMO.

Frustrating game.but I have hope😉

Steven43
02-26-2019, 08:32 PM
VPI fans boo every obvious call against them? Guess they don’t get b-ball.

A bit off-topic, but does anyone remember the name of the Virginia Tech player who was hyper-aggressive, very dirty, and just an outright punk? This was maybe ten years ago. I think his last name was Washington.

SavDukeGrad
02-26-2019, 08:32 PM
Are we going to have enough players to finish this game?

slower
02-26-2019, 08:33 PM
Barrett's a killer. Release The Kraken!!!!!!!!!!!!

At this point, what's there to lose?

Let the big dog hunt!!!

wavedukefan70s
02-26-2019, 08:33 PM
Damn didnt need javin hurt.

dukelion
02-26-2019, 08:34 PM
And why the press now when they are in the bonus?

D has been decent......man I just don't get this game plan.

wavedukefan70s
02-26-2019, 08:35 PM
A bit off-topic, but does anyone remember the name of the Virginia Tech player who was hyper-aggressive, very dirty, and just an outright punk? This was maybe ten years ago. I think his last name was Washington.

Deron maybe?

Owen Meany
02-26-2019, 08:35 PM
A bit off-topic, but does anyone remember the name of the Virginia Tech player who was hyper-aggressive, very dirty, and just an outright punk? This was maybe ten years ago. I think his last name was Washington.

Deron Washington and Jeff Allen.

fgb
02-26-2019, 08:35 PM
A bit off-topic, but does anyone remember the name of the Virginia Tech player who was hyper-aggressive, very dirty, and just an outright punk? This was maybe ten years ago. I think his last name was Washington.

deron washington

slower
02-26-2019, 08:35 PM
And why the press now when they are in the bonus?

D has been decent...man I just don't get this game plan.
Careful there, buddy - the Pollyanna Police will get you if you roar too loudly.

TruBlu
02-26-2019, 08:35 PM
Zion out with a knee. RJ upset stomach. Cam just hurt his low back. Javin has an ankle injury now. This is getting ridiculous. Is there any other redshirts we can burn?

Dub
02-26-2019, 08:35 PM
Just no rhythm to the game. We’re called for every touch foul. Add in sloppy offense on both ends and you have a close snoozer. With no interior threat (Zion), VT just packing it in UVA/UNC style and making R.J. work hard for everything. Good news is we’re hitting FTs but hopefully a basketball game will break out instead of this foul fest.

wavedukefan70s
02-26-2019, 08:36 PM
Are we going to have enough players to finish this game?

Yeah if we use baker🙄

ChrisP
02-26-2019, 08:36 PM
Just hoping we can keep it close (5 or less) and MAYBE steal this one at the end. Worried Bolden's 4th will be killer though

DUKIECB
02-26-2019, 08:41 PM
Cam has been on fire tonight. Need to feed it to him.

robed deity
02-26-2019, 08:42 PM
RJ Barrett is such a gamer.

Ima Facultiwyfe
02-26-2019, 08:43 PM
We're being outcoached.

Love, Ima

Fish80
02-26-2019, 08:43 PM
Get it done now!

DUKIECB
02-26-2019, 08:44 PM
We're being outcoached.

Love, Ima

Blasphemy! 😉 They have had a good game plan tonight.

Fish80
02-26-2019, 08:44 PM
We're being outcoached.

Love, Ima

Oh, bless your heart, I disagree.

DUKIECB
02-26-2019, 08:46 PM
Bet we don't go back to zone again.

dukelion
02-26-2019, 08:47 PM
And now a zone against the best 3pt shooting team in the conference?

SMH

53n206
02-26-2019, 08:48 PM
The Hokies pass to the guy in the corner--"All alone- naturally." Just like the song lyrics. Also turnovers and steals-- let's not go there.

slower
02-26-2019, 08:50 PM
I'm out. Enjoy.

fgb
02-26-2019, 08:53 PM
this feels like watching a 1 seed slip away

Steven43
02-26-2019, 08:54 PM
You don’t see with your eye, you perceive with your mind.

I was just thinking that.

DUKIECB
02-26-2019, 08:54 PM
this feels like watching a 1 seed slip away

A lot of basketball left to play before seeds are handed out.

jipops
02-26-2019, 08:55 PM
This has been the pattern the last few seasons. Play the ugliest ball late in the season.

duke4ever19
02-26-2019, 08:55 PM
this feels like watching a 1 seed slip away

Sounds like a personal problem.

Steven43
02-26-2019, 08:55 PM
Zion out with a knee. RJ upset stomach. Cam just hurt his low back. Javin has an ankle injury now. This is getting ridiculous. Is there any other redshirts we can burn?

We need Michael Savarino.

fgb
02-26-2019, 08:56 PM
Sounds like a personal problem.

no argument here

Steven43
02-26-2019, 08:57 PM
this feels like watching a 1 seed slip away
Duke without Zion is like the Patriots without Brady. Trying to assess our team without Big Z is just silly. I don’t mean that directed at you personally.

DBGoins
02-26-2019, 08:57 PM
If you would have told me we would have shot 50% and 35% from 3 with 4 minutes left I would have took that.

VT only turning it over 6 times is the story of the game.

dukelion
02-26-2019, 08:58 PM
We look tired.....hero ball from RJ with the odd three from AOC or Cam is the extent of the offense.

D had been shredded....how many wide open threes for the best 3pt shooting team in the conference.

Classic out efforted and out coached type of evening.

robed deity
02-26-2019, 08:59 PM
We look tired....hero ball from RJ with the odd three from AOC or Cam is the extent of the offense.

D had been shredded...how many wide open threes for the best 3pt shooting team in the conference.

Classic out efforted and out coached type of evening.

Please.

fgb
02-26-2019, 08:59 PM
Duke without Zion is like the Patriots without Brady. Trying to assess our team without Big Z is just silly. I don’t mean that directed at you personally.

agreed. and I do think this time without Zion will benefit us in the end.

downeastdad
02-26-2019, 08:59 PM
Ain't over yet, folks.

Steven43
02-26-2019, 09:01 PM
agreed. and I do think this time without Zion will benefit us in the end.

Absolutely it will.

downeastdad
02-26-2019, 09:02 PM
Ain't over yet, folks.

Now it is.

Bluedog
02-26-2019, 09:03 PM
Now it is.

No, it's not....not likely, but not over.

TWRX5284
02-26-2019, 09:05 PM
Defense was atrocious all night

wavedukefan70s
02-26-2019, 09:06 PM
How can the vt guard push with his hand the whole game .isnt that a offensive foul?