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View Full Version : MBB: Duke at Syracuse (Sat, 2/23, 6pm ET, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread



Troublemaker
02-22-2019, 06:47 AM
Put your thoughts about this game in here. It's time (beyond time, really).

Troublemaker
02-22-2019, 07:16 AM
Well, I don't expect Zion to play in this one based on the usual timelines for Grade 1 MCL sprains, but I am only a googler, not a doctor.

That said, I'm happy that the team gets a chance to show how good it is without Zion. Some Duke fans believe we're basically the Washington Generals without Zion, and I want this team to emphatically show those fans how wrong they are with a road win tomorrow against Cuse in a rocking Carrier Dome.

Just like the team showed we weren't the Washington Generals without Tre Jones when the team beat UVA without Tre, after having received proper time to prepare to play without Tre. (You have to remember, there was a lot of "Tre is the key to both the offense and defense for Duke" type analysis before the UVA game.) Now, Zion is a better player than Tre and indeed is the best player in the country (just as Tre is indeed a very important piece to the team, mind you), but this Duke team without Zion is still a really good team, given preparation time to play without Zion.

As for point spread, I don't think Vegas will overreact. I expect Duke to be around a 3-pt favorite for tomorrow's game. Joe Public and some Duke fans will lay the lumber on Syracuse as an underdog. (Afterall, Duke looked horrible without Zion last game!). We'll see how that goes for them.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-22-2019, 07:28 AM
Well, I don't expect Zion to play in this one based on the usual timelines for Grade 1 MCL sprains, but I am only a googler, not a doctor.

That said, I'm happy that the team gets a chance to show how good it is without Zion. Some Duke fans believe we're basically the Washington Generals without Zion, and I want this team to emphatically show those fans how wrong they are with a road win tomorrow against Cuse in a rocking Carrier Dome.

Just like the team showed we weren't the Washington Generals without Tre Jones when the team beat UVA without Tre, after having received proper time to prepare to play without Tre. (You have to remember, there was a lot of "Tre is the key to both the offense and defense for Duke" type analysis before the UVA game.) Now, Zion is a better player than Tre and indeed is the best player in the country (just as Tre is indeed a very important piece to the team, mind you), but this Duke team without Zion is still a really good team, given preparation time to play without Zion.

As for point spread, I don't think Vegas will overreact. I expect Duke to be around a 3-pt favorite for tomorrow's game. Joe Public and some Duke fans will lay the lumber on Syracuse as an underdog. (Afterall, Duke looked horrible without Zion last game!). We'll see how that goes for them.

I agree with this, and would add that what we really need tomorrow, and going forward, is for AOC or Jack to step up and provide some confident shooting again. The minutes and the shots will be there, so something or someone has to take the lid off the basket for one or both of these guys. We also need to get good performances from the Javin/Marques duo of course.

slower
02-22-2019, 08:43 AM
I agree with this, and would add that what we really need tomorrow, and going forward, is for AOC or Jack to step up and provide some confident shooting again. The minutes and the shots will be there, so something or someone has to take the lid off the basket for one or both of these guys. We also need to get good performances from the Javin/Marques duo of course.

We've needed all these things for a while now, but we're still not getting them. Marques has had some good games (although the game plan for most teams is to isolate him and drive past him - which has been successful), Javin is okay sporadically, but "confident shooting" from AOC and Jack seems like a pipe dream at this point. As does "reliably good" shooting from Cam (although I'm still a fan of his). AOC SEEMS like he could regain his mojo, so maybe he can be more aggressive against one of the "lesser" remaining teams. Jack looks like he's toast. Cam seems like he'll run hot or cold the rest of the way (and one of his cold nights might contribute to our tourney exit). Tre works so damn hard doing everything else, that I can't fault the guy for missing shots. RJ will Kobe it the rest of the way (not necessarily meant as a complaint). Zion, if fully recovered, will be his stellar self.

budwom
02-22-2019, 08:57 AM
We've needed all these things for a while now, but we're still not getting them. Marques has had some good games (although the game plan for most teams is to isolate him and drive past him - which has been successful), Javin is okay sporadically, but "confident shooting" from AOC and Jack seems like a pipe dream at this point. As does "reliably good" shooting from Cam (although I'm still a fan of his). AOC SEEMS like he could regain his mojo, so maybe he can be more aggressive against one of the "lesser" remaining teams. Jack looks like he's toast. Cam seems like he'll run hot or cold the rest of the way (and one of his cold nights might contribute to our tourney exit). Tre works so damn hard doing everything else, that I can't fault the guy for missing shots. RJ will Kobe it the rest of the way (not necessarily meant as a complaint). Zion, if fully recovered, will be his stellar self.

a bit of improvement in Tre's shooting wouldn't hurt either...effective scoring options from the outside vs unc consisted of Cam, RJ, and little else..

slower
02-22-2019, 09:17 AM
a bit of improvement in Tre's shooting wouldn't hurt either...effective scoring options from the outside vs unc consisted of Cam, RJ, and little else..

Kind of sad that RJ and Cam shooting around 30% from 3 is considered "effective", but I guess that's just our reality.

freshmanjs
02-22-2019, 09:22 AM
While the improvements suggested here would be nice, we don’t need any of them. Our top 3 offense is good enough to win it all. Most important is move the ball and be patient against the zone. Don’t take the bait to throw up a ton of 3s. When we’ve had patience and good ball movement, we’ve had excellent offense, even with a low shooting % from 3.

CDu
02-22-2019, 09:26 AM
As we know, Syracuse will play the 2-3 zone as well as just about anyone besides last year's Duke team. They are long, athletic, and really aggressive and physical in the zone. Offensively, they aren't as skilled, as Boeheim has generally preferred to take guys who fit his defensive philosophy over offensive players. Not that they don't have weapons, just that it's a defense-first philosophy there.

The Orange play a very slow tempo (#267 nationally in pace). Defensively, there are really only two things that they don't do at an elite level (rebound and foul). They force a lot of turnovers, block a lot of shots, and force a lot of difficult/contested shots. Teams shoot poorly from 3 and poorly from 2. They are simply a terrific defensive team.

Offensively, they are kind of the inverse: the only things they do well is draw fouls. They are an especially poor 3pt shooting team, although not quite as bad at it as we are. They have real struggles handling the ball, as they don't have a true PG and only a few guys capable off the dribble. When they play well, it's a pretty ugly game. But there are a wide range of outcomes possible for them, as evidenced by getting blown out by Ga Tech and FSU at home and @State but then blowing out Louisville.

Centers: Paschal Chukwu (7'2", 228lb fifth-year senior) is the team's first option at center. Chukwu is a strong offensive rebounder and shotblocker as you might expect from his size. He's a decent defensive rebounder as well, and even picks up some steals. He's fairly raw offensively, though he isn't awful from the line. He draws a lot of fouls around the rim, primarily off of lobs and offensive rebounds. He's definitely a secondary offensive player, not unlike Christ Koumadje from FSU. But like Koumadje, if you lose track of him, he will dunk on you. Also like Koumadje, Chukwu is pretty foul prone, averaging 3.1 fouls per 18 mpg. Behind Chukwu is Bourama Sidibe (6'10", 205lb sophomore). Sidibe is basically a lesser version of Chukwu across the board. As noted, the team has started the last 3 games going small. This is perhaps in part because their two bigs average 5.6 fouls in just under 30 mpg combined. But the duo does provide 8.3 rebounds and 2.2 blocks in that time, which is pretty impressive given the pace Syracuse plays.

Forwards: The forwards and wings have almost always been a strength of Syracuse teams. This is no exception. Oshae Brissett (6'8", 210lb sophomore from Canada) is the headliner. Brissett is a very strong rebounder but a streaky offensive player. He is capable of having a big night, but also capable of a real stinker. So far this season, it has been more of the latter than the former as he's shot poorly from both 3pt range and 2pt range. Still, given Syracuse's limitations offensively as a team, he'll get plenty of looks. Terrific athlete and certainly not lacking for confidence. Though if Williamson plays, we'll have the athletes to hopefully control him. Alongside Brissett as a co-headliner is (and sometimes a starter in a 3-forward lineup) is Elijah Hughes (6'6", 215lb junior transfer from ECU). Hughes has really stepped up in his first season playing with the Orange. He's a much-improved outside shooter and a terrific athlete. He's a capable 3pt shooter, but like everyone for Syracuse is inconsistent. He's a former football player, so he's extremely strong to go along with good quickness and hops. The third man in the forward rotation (and recently reinserted into the starting lineup) Marek Dolezaj (6'10", 180lb sophomore from Slovakia). Dolezaj is still a work in progress, but provides great length for them along the baseline. He's super skinny, and isn't a great rebounder or shotblocker. But he does get a fair amount of steals, and has pretty good shooting range. He's mostly a catch-and-shoot guy or a punish the closeout guy at this stage.

Wings: Tyus Battle (6'6", 205lb junior) is the team's biggest star. He's a super athlete with pretty good ballhandling skills and is not at all shy about taking the big shots. Battle has gotten a bit more efficient even as his 3pt shooting has continued to regress. He's learned to take it to the basket more and settle for 3s less often. That said, despite being a low-percentage shooter, he is a bit like RJ Barrett in that he can get hot and explode for big games from 3. He's the most dangerous player on the Orange, and will likely be playing in the NBA next year. Next is Buddy Boeheim (6'5", 190lb freshman). Boeheim is a decent outside shooter if left open. But he mainly plays a a depth fill-in for the Orange and really isn't ready to compete overall at the ACC level. And yes, he's the coach's son. Last in the rotation is Jalen Carey (6'3", 170lb freshman) is a backup combo guard for the Orange. He's an upper-tier recruit with terrific ballhandling skills and athleticism, but a very poor jumpshot. Carey can get to the rim and finish there though, but he's a liability from 3. Carey will share ballhandling duties with Battle when the Orange's PG is off the floor. Carey was a main rotation player earlier in the season, but has fallen out of favor as the season has gone on with multiple DNPs since the calendar turned.

Guards: Frank Howard (6'5", 205lb senior) is the PG. Howard is a big strong kid and a decent passer at PG. But he's always struggled to shoot well. Last year he took a ton of shots mainly because the team couldn't shoot, and averaged over 14ppg as a result. But he's struggled this year, shooting just 26% from 3 and taking most of his shots from deep as well. As you might expect from his shooting profile, he also doesn't draw fouls, as in the halfcourt he mainly defers to Battle and Brissett. His most value is on the defensive end, where his length can be a challenge.

Basically, aside from Carey (and he may play sparingly), everyone on the Orange is 6'5" or taller and with long arms. It's a team ideally suited to play zone, and they play it well. I really hope Williamson is able to play, because his ability to catch at the FT line and attack quickly from there will likely give Syracuse some fits. But if he doesn't, I'll be interested to see how Coach K designs the offense to attack the zone. It is likely going to be a frustrating game offensively, but hopefully we'll surprise. The plus side is that hopefully it will be a frustrating game for them offensively as well, and we can emerge with a victory. But playing against the zone is no fun, especially if we are without our cheat code in Zion.

I'd also like to see us force Syracuse into turnovers. Jones was a menace in the limited time that he played the first time around, and Syracuse is ripe for turnovers to be forced. Any easy-bucket chances we can get will be a plus.

DavidBenAkiva
02-22-2019, 09:38 AM
This is such a weird situation. Boeheim's status is uncertain after the unfortunate car accident on Wednesday night. College Gameday is cancelled, although this is still anticipated to be the largest on-campus crowd to attend a regular season college basketball game. We have no idea if Zion is going to play. Syracuse has been up and down lately, losing in rather terrible fashion to Florida State at home, 80-62 and on the road at NC State 73-58 but winning comfortably against Boston College and Louisville. Syracuse has not shot the ball well of late, making just 5-20 and 5-25 3-point attempts in their respective losses. Meanwhile, Duke has shot the ball extremely well on the road this year, 39.9% from 3-point range in 6 road game.

Duke desperately needs scoring from someone besides R.J. and Cam. Without Zion, I suspect R.J. will be featured heavily in the high post. I hope that Marques Bolden has a bounceback game in this one, flashing in for a dunk from the baseline. In the first matchup, Bolden tallied 12 on 4-6 shooting. Alex O'Connell had his best game all year against Syracuse, hitting 4 of 8 3's.

I think we can get more from Javin in this rematch with a healthy Tre and Cam - the two best at generating steals - in this one. Tre made Frank Howard of Syracuse look like a sieve in the first 6 minutes of the first game before his injury. That's another source of easy buckets.

On defense, the loss of Jones and Reddish cannot be overstated for how Syracuse shot the ball. Jones has shut down excellent point guards all year, including Shamorie Ponds and Coby White. He needs to do the same to Frank Howard in this game. And having Cam on Tyus Battle and Elijah Hughes will be a big plus for Duke's perimeter defense. Battle has been making a living off of taking bad shots, but Cam will really test that with his height and length.

On paper, even without Zion, I think Duke should be able to disrupt Syracuse enough to exact a victory. But that is why they play the games.

House G
02-22-2019, 10:07 AM
While the improvements suggested here would be nice, we don’t need any of them. Our top 3 offense is good enough to win it all. Most important is move the ball and be patient against the zone. Don’t take the bait to throw up a ton of 3s. When we’ve had patience and good ball movement, we’ve had excellent offense, even with a low shooting % from 3.

In the first game against the Cuse, we jacked up 43 3s and only made nine. Four of those nine were made by AOC. Zion had 35 points, almost all from the paint or FT line. If Zion doesn’t play, I think we may be in for a long night. While I realize Cam didn’t play in the first game, I believe we need Marques to show up in a big way. He remains an enigma to me.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-22-2019, 10:29 AM
While the improvements suggested here would be nice, we don’t need any of them. .

Were you the one who said in Feb of 2015 that there's no way we would need an offensive explosion from Grayson Allen to win the title?

That's a hypothetical rhetorical comment to make this point:
To win a championship, teams almost always "need" something to fall into place, or a slump to end, or a new star to be born, to survive the six game gauntlet. If they don't get it, they will get beat by a team that does get it.

I say the best chance of that is that AOC gets his shooting mojo back on...and the next best possibility is Jack...and that one or both of them rise up in a key moment. Goldwire has earned playing time because he has played better than both lately...and they're both struggling...but to my eye...Goldwire getting minutes is not part of a championship team recipe the way AOC or Jack could be.

freshmanjs
02-22-2019, 11:20 AM
Were you the one who said in Feb of 2015 that there's no way we would need an offensive explosion from Grayson Allen to win the title?

That's a hypothetical rhetorical comment to make this point:
To win a championship, teams almost always "need" something to fall into place, or a slump to end, or a new star to be born, to survive the six game gauntlet. If they don't get it, they will get beat by a team that does get it.

I say the best chance of that is that AOC gets his shooting mojo back on...and the next best possibility is Jack...and that one or both of them rise up in a key moment. Goldwire has earned playing time because he has played better than both lately...and they're both struggling...but to my eye...Goldwire getting minutes is not part of a championship team recipe the way AOC or Jack could be.

Sure unexpected stuff happened. But if Quinn had a normal offensive game, that may not have been needed. All I’m saying is our offense has been good enough to win. There is not some big fault in our offense that must be fixed to become a contender. Obviously you have to play well to win it all.

CDu
02-22-2019, 11:36 AM
Sure unexpected stuff happened. But if Quinn had a normal offensive game, that may not have been needed. All I’m saying is our offense has been good enough to win. There is not some big fault in our offense that must be fixed to become a contender. Obviously you have to play well to win it all.

Or if Okafor doesn't get in early foul trouble and miss about 10 extra minutes of game action.

That said, "need" is a weird term in general. We might need a bigger than usual game. Or we might not. I think we have the talent as is to win without any surprising contributions from the non-freshmen or Bolden. That's not to say that we won't ultimately get one or need one. But if the top 5 play as expected, we shouldn't need more than we are getting from the others.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-22-2019, 12:06 PM
That said, "need" is a weird term in general. We might need a bigger than usual game. Or we might not. I think we have the talent as is to win without any surprising contributions from the non-freshmen or Bolden. That's not to say that we won't ultimately get one or need one. But if the top 5 play as expected, we shouldn't need more than we are getting from the others.


Which is why I said most title winners have a moment along the way in the six game stretch where they need something unexpected. Not all, and not in all six games, but at some point...you are likely to need it - to need something unusual, something not standard. Often this is from non-stars. And often it is to avoid losing to a team you should beat, but not always. This is because it is rare that the top five play as expected for six straight games, at least 5 of which will be against teams that can beat you.

Some examples:
15 needed Grayson in the Title game, after not needing him for the entire year (though he was coming on, and his follow dunk v MSU was awesome)
10 needed Dawkins big threes versus Baylor to keep the game close, and Zoubeks late emergence in general with the offensive rebounds and kick outs on a team led by the big three.
01 needed the explosion from Dunleavy, on a team led by Williams, Battier and Booz. We also needed a Maryland melt down (sometime the other team helps)
92 we needed a 2.1 second miracle...albeit it from the stars - but we needed it because inferior Kentucky shot out of their minds (sometimes the other team does not help...)
91 we needed Hurley to hit a big time 3, and this was at a point in his career before big time 3's were common from him...and probably needed a fast start by Koubek in the title game, scoring Duke's first 5 points, for a team exhausted by UNLV game.

Champs almost always need something, unexpected, from one of their own or other factors. Didn't hurt that Kentucky was derailed ahead of us in 2010 and 2015 frankly. When Duke has lost, as clearly the best team in the nation, it's because something didn't go right, and there was nothing unexpected to jump up and bail us out.

Rich
02-22-2019, 12:13 PM
Or if Okafor doesn't get in early foul trouble and miss about 10 extra minutes of game action.

That said, "need" is a weird term in general. We might need a bigger than usual game. Or we might not. I think we have the talent as is to win without any surprising contributions from the non-freshmen or Bolden. That's not to say that we won't ultimately get one or need one. But if the top 5 play as expected, we shouldn't need more than we are getting from the others.

I think what HereBefore is saying is that rarely do the top 5 play as expected every game in a 6 game one-and-done tournament. At some point we are likely to face some sort of adversity that will force some unknown and unlikely event where we need one or more of our 6-8 guys to step up and make a play, like a Koubek jumper to start the game against Kansas, an Andre Dawkins three against Baylor, or Grayson Allen coming off the bench, diving for loose balls and scoring however many straight points against Wisconsin. Those events are pivotal and we are likely to need one or more to win a championship. Who's gonna step up for us?

OZZIE4DUKE
02-22-2019, 12:24 PM
Just got a push from CBS Sports that Zion has been declared out for tomorrow's game at Syracuse. Certainly not unexpected. I'm sure the GOAT and staff have come up with an effective strategy for us to win this game. And please, dear God, let us shoot well! LGD GTHc! 9F!http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gifhttp://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

CDu
02-22-2019, 12:38 PM
I think what HereBefore is saying is that rarely do the top 5 play as expected every game in a 6 game one-and-done tournament. At some point we are likely to face some sort of adversity that will force some unknown and unlikely event where we need one or more of our 6-8 guys to step up and make a play, like a Koubek jumper to start the game against Kansas, an Andre Dawkins three against Baylor, or Grayson Allen coming off the bench, diving for loose balls and scoring however many straight points against Wisconsin. Those events are pivotal and we are likely to need one or more to win a championship. Who's gonna step up for us?

Right, but (a) that's not a given as far as a need, and (b) even if it is, that's a one-off type of thing. We know Bolden is capable of a double-double. He's done it once this year and just missed two other times (one of them being an 11,9, and 7 block game). We don't need him to be any better than he has been to this point. Maybe one game we'll need him to have his good game. But we don't need it any more consistently than he's done thus far. Similarly, we know White is capable of basically a double double, as he's gotten within a point or a rebound of that feat twice this year. Again, we don't need him to consistently give us that. And we might not ever need it. But if we do, it'd be in a one-off sense. And we know he's capable. We know O'Connell can hit open 3s. Yadda yadda yadda.

The argument that we need these guys to step up their games is what I disagree with. If we get, on average, the performances that we've gotten to this point, we are probably the most likely individual team to win the title. Some games may require more than the average, some games less. But what we've been getting from our "little 5" this year is enough to win the title with what we've been getting on average from the "big 3". We just need to avoid having too many guys playing below their average together on the same game against the wrong opponent. But that's different than needing someone of the role players to step up their game.

sagegrouse
02-22-2019, 12:59 PM
Kind of sad that RJ and Cam shooting around 30% from 3 is considered "effective", but I guess that's just our reality.

Compared to the other options on the roster, I would say "spectacular."

Rich
02-22-2019, 01:20 PM
Right, but (a) that's not a given as far as a need, and (b) even if it is, that's a one-off type of thing. We know Bolden is capable of a double-double. He's done it once this year and just missed two other times (one of them being an 11,9, and 7 block game). We don't need him to be any better than he has been to this point. Maybe one game we'll need him to have his good game. But we don't need it any more consistently than he's done thus far. Similarly, we know White is capable of basically a double double, as he's gotten within a point or a rebound of that feat twice this year. Again, we don't need him to consistently give us that. And we might not ever need it. But if we do, it'd be in a one-off sense. And we know he's capable. We know O'Connell can hit open 3s. Yadda yadda yadda.

The argument that we need these guys to step up their games is what I disagree with. If we get, on average, the performances that we've gotten to this point, we are probably the most likely individual team to win the title. Some games may require more than the average, some games less. But what we've been getting from our "little 5" this year is enough to win the title with what we've been getting on average from the "big 3". We just need to avoid having too many guys playing below their average together on the same game against the wrong opponent. But that's different than needing someone of the role players to step up their game.

I totally get your point, but I think we as a fan base are losing confidence that Jack and Alex, for the most part, are currently capable of your bolded comments above. Yes, at one point they were both capable, but right now we haven't seen much out of either of them and can't count on them for anything other than perhaps a few rebounds or putbacks. The Jack White you mention above has completely disappeared and I'm not sure we've seen that Alex since last season.

superdave
02-22-2019, 01:25 PM
a bit of improvement in Tre's shooting wouldn't hurt either...effective scoring options from the outside vs unc consisted of Cam, RJ, and little else..

Tre has been passing up open shots to look for better shots. He needs to score more than a couple of buckets each game, so I hope he will shoot those open looks, particularly when Zion is out.

CDu
02-22-2019, 01:26 PM
I totally get your point, but I think we as a fan base are losing confidence that Jack and Alex, for the most part, are currently capable of your bolded comments above. Yes, at one point they were both capable, but right now we haven't seen much out of either of them and can't count on them for anything other than perhaps a few rebounds or putbacks. The Jack White you mention above has completely disappeared and I'm not sure we've seen that Alex since last season.

O'Connell was capable of it just a few weeks ago (Notre Dame) and a week prior to that (Syracuse). White's most recent occurrence was against Clemson. They didn't suddenly lose the ability to do it in the span of a few weeks.

And again, they don't need to do it regularly. They just MIGHT (and might not) need to do it once.

Rich
02-22-2019, 01:38 PM
O'Connell was capable of it just a few weeks ago (Notre Dame) and a week prior to that (Syracuse). White's most recent occurrence was against Clemson. They didn't suddenly lose the ability to do it in the span of a few weeks.

And again, they don't need to do it regularly. They just MIGHT (and might not) need to do it once.

I guess it only feels that way. :confused:

By the way, I always enjoy reading your posts and Kedsy's posts, especially in the same thread when you react to each other with additional data points. The advanced metrics are really fascinating and it's amazing how "gut feelings" aren't necessarily supported by the data.

For instance, as much as I feel we are going to have a tough time winning a national championship with our current inability to consistently shoot the three, you two have pretty much debunked that with eFG% data. It makes me feel better (for a few hours), and then I go back to being pessimistic.

CDu
02-22-2019, 01:53 PM
I guess it only feels that way. :confused:

To be fair, I should probably have said "I think it's highly unlikely that they suddenly lost the ability." I just feel like all it will take is for one shot to go down and they'll return to their normal psyche.

Now, I don't think either is going to be a double-double machine or high-volume shooter with any regularity this season. But I think they very much still have it in them for it to happen in a one-off scenario.

But, it's all speculation at this point.


By the way, I always enjoy reading your posts and Kedsy's posts, especially in the same thread when you react to each other with additional data points. The advanced metrics are really fascinating and it's amazing how "gut feelings" aren't necessarily supported by the data.

For instance, as much as I feel we are going to have a tough time winning a national championship with our current inability to consistently shoot the three, you two have pretty much debunked that with eFG% data. It makes me feel better (for a few hours), and then I go back to being pessimistic.

Thanks for the kind words. Yeah, I totally understand the gut feelings. I work in an analytical field, so my nature is to always take a look at the numbers to cross-check what I feel. And often times there is a divergence. :) Plus, I just really like math. But I think it's helpful to camp all gut feelings with some sort of evidence beyond the anecdotal, because anecdotal evidence tends to be skewed by small sample sizes and recall bias (both positive and negative).

HereBeforeCoachK
02-22-2019, 02:09 PM
O'Connell was capable of it just a few weeks ago (Notre Dame) and a week prior to that (Syracuse). White's most recent occurrence was against Clemson. They didn't suddenly lose the ability to do it in the span of a few weeks.

And again, they don't need to do it regularly. They just MIGHT (and might not) need to do it once.

IIRC, Jack was far and away the team winner shooting 3 pointers in practice, and IIRC it was a high volume of shots. Practice isn't a game, and I get that, but at its core, the ability to shoot is the ability to shoot. Jack gets game opportunities that are wide open, much like practice. He has hit at least two of these in big time game pressure situations (Texas Tech I think - one was waived off on a BS charging call on the passer, but Jack didn't know that when he nailed the shot under pressure. The other counted and I think maybe our first lead in a while).

So we know Jack can...and that he has...and at least a few in big moments. We need that possibility to rear its head again.

duke79
02-22-2019, 03:06 PM
Just got a push from CBS Sports that Zion has been declared out for tomorrow's game at Syracuse. Certainly not unexpected. I'm sure the GOAT and staff have come up with an effective strategy for us to win this game. And please, dear God, let us shoot well! LGD GTHc! 9F!http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gifhttp://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

My memory may be faulty but I think this is one of the WORST outside shooting teams in the K era. Admittedly, Cam Reddish does seem to be shooting better lately, when he squares up and has a clean shot but the rest of the team has, for the most part, been horrendous. I've seen high school teams that shoot the ball better. No doubt it hurt us in the Carolina game and a few other games this year. I'm just not sure we can go all the way unless the shooting DOES improve!

Kedsy
02-22-2019, 03:14 PM
My memory may be faulty but I think this is one of the WORST outside shooting teams in the K era. Admittedly, Cam Reddish does seem to be shooting better lately, when he squares up and has a clean shot but the rest of the team has, for the most part, been horrendous. I've seen high school teams that shoot the ball better. No doubt it hurt us in the Carolina game and a few other games this year. I'm just not sure we can go all the way unless the shooting DOES improve!

This team has the worst three-point shooting percentage in Duke history. But as long as our two-point shooting percentage remains the best in Duke history (or at least since the three-point shot was invented), I don't agree with your final sentence.

fathippo
02-22-2019, 03:15 PM
IIRC, Jack was far and away the team winner shooting 3 pointers in practice, and IIRC it was a high volume of shots. Practice isn't a game, and I get that, but at its core, the ability to shoot is the ability to shoot. Jack gets game opportunities that are wide open, much like practice. He has hit at least two of these in big time game pressure situations (Texas Tech I think - one was waived off on a BS charging call on the passer, but Jack didn't know that when he nailed the shot under pressure. The other counted and I think maybe our first lead in a while).

So we know Jack can...and that he has...and at least a few in big moments. We need that possibility to rear its head again.

It is uncanny watching Jack shoot in shootaround and then watch him shoot the same open shot in games now. He rarely misses a three in practice. Practice doesn't always translate to games, but in this case he was a 41% 3-pt shooter (21-51) in the first 13 games and is 1 of 24 in the last 13 games. It really is unbelievable how a good shooter (IMO) could be on such a cold streak. I still have faith in him; dude just needs to keep shooting. There will be some situation in the tournament when we will need a major contribution from Jack, AOC, or Marquese to survive; it is the case every year.

Duke79UNLV77
02-22-2019, 03:18 PM
I think White and AOC could regain their confidence and their shots at any time. As another option, what about J Rob? He’s got good length and athleticism and can hit a standstill 3. He has other limitations, but we don’t need him to do a lot.

uh_no
02-22-2019, 03:24 PM
I don't agree with your final sentence.

you don't agree that duke79 is not sure that duke can go all the way? I on the other hand feel I am in no position to say what duke79 is or is not sure about. :D :D

Kedsy
02-22-2019, 03:25 PM
you don't agree that duke79 is not sure that duke can go all the way? I on the other hand feel I am in no position to say what duke79 is or is not sure about. :D :D

Touche'.

duke79
02-22-2019, 03:32 PM
This team has the worst three-point shooting percentage in Duke history. But as long as our two-point shooting percentage remains the best in Duke history (or at least since the three-point shot was invented), I don't agree with your final sentence.

Yea, I hope I'm wrong and no doubt Duke has been dominant inside in most games this season (or at least Zion has been dominant) but as you go farther in the tournament and play better and better teams, you have to assume that the coaching staffs will TRY to figure out a way to shut Duke down inside. If you have to rely on outside shooting and you're only making a small percentage of those outside shots, that is usually not a good strategy to win. (and never mind the poor free throw shooting).

Kedsy
02-22-2019, 03:37 PM
Yea, I hope I'm wrong and no doubt Duke has been dominant inside in most games this season (or at least Zion has been dominant) but as you go farther in the tournament and play better and better teams, you have to assume that the coaching staffs will TRY to figure out a way to shut Duke down inside. If you have to rely on outside shooting and you're only making a small percentage of those outside shots, that is usually not a good strategy to win. (and never mind the poor free throw shooting).

Yeah, we'll see. I still remember the "good old days" when DBR posters spent incessant angst worrying about us taking so many three-point shots because we would "live or die by the three."

Rich
02-22-2019, 03:48 PM
Yea, I hope I'm wrong and no doubt Duke has been dominant inside in most games this season (or at least Zion has been dominant) but as you go farther in the tournament and play better and better teams, you have to assume that the coaching staffs will TRY to figure out a way to shut Duke down inside. If you have to rely on outside shooting and you're only making a small percentage of those outside shots, that is usually not a good strategy to win. (and never mind the poor free throw shooting).

We've recently played Louisville and Virginia twice and both have defenses that are geared precisely to take away the inside game so the fact that Zion has still been dominant says something. We'll see teams as we go (hopefully far) through the tournament that are better and better, but most will not be better than Louisville and certainly not UVA.

And, as I mentioned earlier in this thread or some other thread this afternoon, as much as many of us feel we need to be better at three point shooting, the advanced metrics (eFG%) don't support that because our 2 point shooting has been so good, even against defenses designed to take away the 2 point shot.

Troublemaker
02-22-2019, 07:01 PM
Whoa, Duke is opening as 4.5 / 5-pt favorites: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

I'm optimistic that this team is still really good without Zion, but that's higher than I expected.

CDu
02-22-2019, 07:06 PM
Whoa, Duke is opening as 4.5 / 5-pt favorites: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

I'm optimistic that this team is still really good without Zion, but that's higher than I expected.

Torvik views this game as a 7.4 point Duke favorite. That is based on Zion’s contributions to date. So, I would concur that a 4.5 line seems optimistic.

That being said, we do still have the two most talented players, the of the four most talented, and four of the six/seven most talented players in this game, even without Zion.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-22-2019, 07:08 PM
Whoa, Duke is opening as 4.5 / 5-pt favorites: http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/

I'm optimistic that this team is still really good without Zion, but that's higher than I expected.

There's so much emotion swirling around this one.....Zion and Boeheim's tragedy......I've no idea what will happen.

NSDukeFan
02-22-2019, 07:39 PM
Yeah, we'll see. I still remember the "good old days" when DBR posters spent incessant angst worrying about us taking so many three-point shots because we would "live or die by the three."

I think the problem is that you likely helped show too many people how efficient 3-point shooting can be, over many years of the incessant angst. Now you’re trying to tell everyone there’s more than one way to skin a cat and we can now win without the 3? That could take a few more years of angst.😀

Fish80
02-22-2019, 08:09 PM
Who starts? The three super frosh. Bolden. One of AOC, White, or DeLaurier. I’m thinking DeLaurier. Just a hunch.

uh_no
02-22-2019, 08:35 PM
Who starts? The three super frosh. Bolden. One of AOC, White, or DeLaurier. I’m thinking DeLaurier. Just a hunch.

joey baker!!!!


(/s)

IN all seriousness, I bet it'll be white. It's a bit of a downer, but we have to pick and choose our times to use delaurier, so it could be worthwhile to see how the team is playing/game is going before putting him in in the situations/lineups where he'll be most effective.

I also think jack is just that little bit stronger than delaurier and without zion, any little bit helps (though it's the difference between a toddler an and infant trying to emulate arnold schwarzenegger....)

CajunDevil
02-22-2019, 08:44 PM
Do we go to a zone tomorrow to provide more consistent paint protection than we had in UNC game and save some energy while Zion is out?

Devilwin
02-22-2019, 08:57 PM
We need for the biggest man on the court to do something. Bolden was invisible against UNC. That cannot happen again..

uh_no
02-22-2019, 09:21 PM
We need for the biggest man on the court to do something. Bolden was invisible against UNC. That cannot happen again..

Without zion there, there was no way bolden was going to be effective. just not enough to draw the defense to get him enough space.

Mak P
02-22-2019, 09:59 PM
Do we go to a zone tomorrow to provide more consistent paint protection than we had in UNC game and save some energy while Zion is out?

WE should

I'll never understand why teams don't combat a zone with a zone in college. We just going to be 2 zone running teams out there. May the best win

tteettimes
02-22-2019, 11:11 PM
Devils 4 point favorite.......on the road.......w/0 Zion..that’s a big surprise to me
LGD

subzero02
02-23-2019, 04:17 AM
Devils 4 point favorite....on the road....w/0 Zion..that’s a big surprise to me
LGD

In K odds makers trust...and with good reason.

roywhite
02-23-2019, 08:22 AM
Imagine what a win playing Syracuse on the road without Zion could do for the confidence of this team. Especially if we see big contributions from role players and slumping shooters. Perhaps reminiscent of the 2001 team adjusting without Boozer and then becoming better than ever as he came back?

lotusland
02-23-2019, 08:25 AM
WE should

I'll never understand why teams don't combat a zone with a zone in college. We just going to be 2 zone running teams out there. May the best win

Cuse is a poor shooting team so zone should work in theory but my guess is we turn Tre loose on their ball handlers and play high risk/high reward M2M with some zone possibly mixed in especially if/when Bolden and Jav are on the court together. Turning them over is the key. If we can do that we don’t have to play as much half court offense and we’re still pretty good in the open court even without Zion. Cam has gotten better at finishing around the basket too. Jack, Jav and AOC could also pick up some cheap points to boost their confidence. JGold, not so much.

Troublemaker
02-23-2019, 08:55 AM
I'm hoping Jack starts and plays 30 minutes. The rest of the PF minutes can be covered by Cam/RJ while Alex/JGold backfill in the backcourt.

Back when Jack was playing great earlier in the season, he received 25-30 mpg a game. Then there were 3 games when Tre was out with injury that Jack had to over-extend himself by playing 35-40 mpg, which is when his slump started. After those 3 games, Tre returned, and Jack got reduced to a 10-15 mpg role where his slump continued.

I guess what I'm proposing is a chicken/egg situation. Did Jack's slump cause his minutes to be reduced? Or did playing around with Jack's minutes (first over-extending him, then reducing his role) throw him into an extended slump? It's probably the former, but I'm hoping it's the latter and "old Jack" will return playing 25-30 mpg with Zion out.

Man, if old Jack returned, I'd pretty much guarantee that we'll win out until the ACC semis (where we'll probably need Zion to win against either FSU or UNC in a rubber match).

We don't need anything but old Jack back. Tre, RJ, Cam + Jack from earlier in the season + Marques + Javin and Alex/JGold off the bench. That team can win lots of ACC games.

Troublemaker
02-23-2019, 09:00 AM
Old Jack could can threes, which would open up room for RJ's drives, and could defend and rebound like a beast.

All we need is Old Jack.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-23-2019, 09:08 AM
Old Jack could can threes, which would open up room for RJ's drives, and could defend and rebound like a beast.

All we need is Old Jack.

I think someone said that he was 21 for 51 in the first 13 games. That's a tad over 40%, and on an average of 4 attempts per game roughly. So that's enough volume and production to indeed open up the court a bit. And when he was doing that, it didn't seem like the team (who see him shoot every day) thought he was out of his mind or playing over his head....it seemed like what they fully expected from him - based on seeing him play every day.

Zion tilts the court for the defense and opens up lanes even without the ball...so does a 3 point shooter like Jack was for 13 games.

jv001
02-23-2019, 09:09 AM
I'm hoping Jack starts and plays 30 minutes. The rest of the PF minutes can be covered by Cam/RJ while Alex/JGold backfill in the backcourt.

Back when Jack was playing great earlier in the season, he received 25-30 mpg a game. Then there were 3 games when Tre was out with injury that Jack had to over-extend himself by playing 35-40 mpg, which is when his slump started. After those 3 games, Tre returned, and Jack got reduced to a 10-15 mpg role where his slump continued.

I guess what I'm proposing is a chicken/egg situation. Did Jack's slump cause his minutes to be reduced? Or did playing around with Jack's minutes (first over-extending him, then reducing his role) throw him into an extended slump? It's probably the former, but I'm hoping it's the latter and "old Jack" will return playing 25-30 mpg with Zion out.

Man, if old Jack returned, I'd pretty much guarantee that we'll win out until the ACC semis (where we'll probably need Zion to win against either FSU or UNC in a rubber match).

We don't need anything but old Jack back. Tre, RJ, Cam + Jack from earlier in the season + Marques + Javin and Alex/JGold off the bench. That team can win lots of ACC games.

I'm with you that I'd like to see Jack start and get more minutes. I still believe Captain Jack's problems are mental. In other words, he's thinking way too much. His passing up shots or hesitating taking the shot has gone into his handling of the ball. In those first good games, he didn't hesitate to shoot or drive the ball. Now he's doing both. When he took those two FTs the other night, the TV close up shot of his face made it look like he was under tremendous pressure. And that was in a not so close game. I'm sure the coaches have done all they can to get him back to "old Jack" as you called him. Maybe if they tell him, you're our guy, just go play. We're not going to yank you out for missing a 3. But they've already told him as much. I'll be rooting for him to break out tonight and we give the Cuse some payback. GoDuke!

camion
02-23-2019, 09:16 AM
I'm with you that I'd like to see Jack start and get more minutes. I still believe Captain Jack's problems are mental. In other words, he's thinking way too much. His passing up shots or hesitating taking the shot has gone into his handling of the ball. In those first good games, he didn't hesitate to shoot or drive the ball. Now he's doing both. When he took those two FTs the other night, the TV close up shot of his face made it look like he was under tremendous pressure. And that was in a not so close game. I'm sure the coaches have done all they can to get him back to "old Jack" as you called him. Maybe if they tell him, you're our guy, just go play. We're not going to yank you out for missing a 3. But they've already told him as much. I'll be rooting for him to break out tonight and we give the Cuse some payback. GoDuke!

From my baseball oriented perspective I would diagnose Jack's problem as the yips (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yips).

I hope it it's just a slump, but it really looks like it's in his head now.

budwom
02-23-2019, 09:18 AM
Devils 4 point favorite....on the road....w/0 Zion..that’s a big surprise to me
LGD

I'm hopeful as always, but find the spread to be very very surprising as well...if Jones or White can't hit some shots, Barrett may have to take 30...

jv001
02-23-2019, 09:35 AM
From my baseball oriented perspective I would diagnose Jack's problem as the yips (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yips).

I hope it it's just a slump, but it really looks like it's in his head now.

I sure hope it's a slump and lack of confidence. The "yips" could be a worse problem to solve in a short time. One of my best and dearest friends who was a scratch golfer got the yips(putting). He was the best putter I have ever seen until then. He at times might have a 2 footer and might putt it all the way off the green. He went to the long putter and that saved his game but he was never the great putter he once was. In baseball the yips come in athletes unable to throw the ball. The NY Mets catcher who couldn't throw the ball back to his pitcher comes to mind. In Jack's case, I think it's over thinking and I look to see him snap out of it any game. Hopefully tonight. GoDuke!

Rich
02-23-2019, 10:29 AM
I sure hope it's a slump and lack of confidence. The "yips" could be a worse problem to solve in a short time. One of my best and dearest friends who was a scratch golfer got the yips(putting). He was the best putter I have ever seen until then. He at times might have a 2 footer and might putt it all the way off the green. He went to the long putter and that saved his game but he was never the great putter he once was. In baseball the yips come in athletes unable to throw the ball. The NY Mets catcher who couldn't throw the ball back to his pitcher comes to mind. In Jack's case, I think it's over thinking and I look to see him snap out of it any game. Hopefully tonight. GoDuke!

Mackey Sasser

jipops
02-23-2019, 10:45 AM
Given that we have no shooters, Zion has been our best weapon against the zone this season. He plants around the free throw line and either spins to the basket making a play or redirects on the perimeter. Without him I expect our offense to be pretty bad today. What will be interesting is what K decides to do on defense. Going zone seems risky as we’ve been a man team all year playing perimeter passing lanes.

I’m fully expecting a loss here. It would just be great for one of the role players to show a little more life. Get healthy and get to the ncaa’s.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-23-2019, 10:48 AM
Given that we have no shooters, Zion has been our best weapon against the zone this season. He plants around the free throw line and either spins to the basket making a play or redirects on the perimeter. Without him I expect our offense to be pretty bad today. What will be interesting is what K decides to do on defense. Going zone seems risky as we’ve been a man team all year playing perimeter passing lanes.

I’m fully expecting a loss here. It would just be great for one of the role players to show a little more life. Get healthy and get to the ncaa’s.

I cannot argue with your X and O analysis. That said, I'm not sure X/O will be the main factor.

Where is Duke's head after Zion's injury and the UNC blow out? Will K come up with more "key player out" magic with a few days to prepare? And where in the world are the heads of Boeheim and his players?

dukebluesincebirth
02-23-2019, 10:53 AM
Given that we have no shooters, Zion has been our best weapon against the zone this season. He plants around the free throw line and either spins to the basket making a play or redirects on the perimeter. Without him I expect our offense to be pretty bad today. What will be interesting is what K decides to do on defense. Going zone seems risky as we’ve been a man team all year playing perimeter passing lanes.

I’m fully expecting a loss here. It would just be great for one of the role players to show a little more life. Get healthy and get to the ncaa’s.

Kinda feeling the same way. And glad I’m not a coach, because I’d have absolutely no idea how to approach this game. We have no shooters and playing a tough 2-3 zone on the road. Maybe I’d just focus totally on defense and hope some shots fall that haven’t been falling?? Idk, maybe full court press the whole game and score some points off turnovers? I have no idea. Agree that Zion is our best weapon against the zone because of ability to slash through it, and to take advantage of what the zone naturally yields: offensive rebounds. He’ll be sorely missed today. I’ll pull my heart out for the boys today, and will be truly amazed and impressed if they can somehow get a W.

Furniture
02-23-2019, 11:44 AM
https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2019/02/zion-williamson-out-for-duke-mens-basketballs-matchup-at-syracuse-saturday-night

budwom
02-23-2019, 11:47 AM
Kinda feeling the same way. And glad I’m not a coach, because I’d have absolutely no idea how to approach this game. We have no shooters and playing a tough 2-3 zone on the road. Maybe I’d just focus totally on defense and hope some shots fall that haven’t been falling?? Idk, maybe full court press the whole game and score some points off turnovers? I have no idea. Agree that Zion is our best weapon against the zone because of ability to slash through it, and to take advantage of what the zone naturally yields: offensive rebounds. He’ll be sorely missed today. I’ll pull my heart out for the boys today, and will be truly amazed and impressed if they can somehow get a W.

My hope is that Tre can wreak havoc defensively as he did in the first game before getting hurt....he dominated the first few minutes of that one...

Devil549
02-23-2019, 11:47 AM
There are ways to beat a zone:
1. Hit outside shots which spreads zone out
2. Penetrate the zone for good shots or kick outs to shooters when zone collapses
3. Hit offensive boards for put backs and kick outs
4. Play good pressure defense and turn the other team over..... best offense in the world is a layup/dunk after steal or rebound

slower
02-23-2019, 11:48 AM
Old Jack could can threes, which would open up room for RJ's drives, and could defend and rebound like a beast.

All we need is Old Jack.

So we had Old Jack. Is that the same as Classic Jack? Do we now have Jack Light? Or Jack Zero?

SavDukeGrad
02-23-2019, 12:29 PM
I cannot argue with your X and O analysis. That said, I'm not sure X/O will be the main factor.

Where is Duke's head after Zion's injury and the UNC blow out? Will K come up with more "key player out" magic with a few days to prepare? And where in the world are the heads of Boeheim and his players?

I think the Syracuse players’ emotions could go either way. But if I had to bet, I think it’s more likely that they will play inspired in support of their coach, a la Louisville after the Kevin Ware injury. They are a mature group.

I certainly hope we bring our A game and shoot well. Coach K always seems to excel in these situations. Let’s hope he has more magic like he did when he game-planned for the first UVA game when Tre was out. Go Duke!

Dukehky
02-23-2019, 12:34 PM
I hope Duke wins, UVA loses, and Carolina loses.

Furniture
02-23-2019, 12:57 PM
Could he play? The first highlight this year? Isn’t that strange?

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/1099358223734394880

Also saw this on Twitter. “Right now. We are doing this”! Awesome.....

https://mobile.twitter.com/BlueDevils/status/1096069624737775616

Dukehky
02-23-2019, 01:10 PM
Could he play? The first highlight this year? Isn’t that strange?

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/1099358223734394880

Also saw this on Twitter. “Right now. We are doing this”! Awesome....

https://mobile.twitter.com/BlueDevils/status/1096069624737775616

I really don't think they would burn his redshirt this late in the season when we've lost one game with a fully healthy team, and Zion is going to come back.

When Zion comes back, Joey would likely be relegated to at most, spot minutes. If he were ready to play, they wouldn't have red shirted him. I don't think this is one of those "break glass in case of emergency situations." It's not an emergency. I also have a hard time believing that he would be such an improvement over AOC or Goldwire that it justifies losing out on his 5th year...

Furniture
02-23-2019, 01:12 PM
Is he officially red shirted though?

uh_no
02-23-2019, 01:13 PM
Could he play? The first highlight this year? Isn’t that strange?

https://mobile.twitter.com/DukeNBA/status/1099358223734394880

Also saw this on Twitter. “Right now. We are doing this”! Awesome....

https://mobile.twitter.com/BlueDevils/status/1096069624737775616

remember when goldwire was going to start w/ Tre out because Zion and RJ told people to instagram follow him? Yeah this is like that :D

I'm of course more than happy to be wrong.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-23-2019, 01:13 PM
I really don't think they would burn his redshirt this late in the season when we've lost one game with a fully healthy team, and Zion is going to come back.

When Zion comes back, Joey would likely be relegated to at most, spot minutes. If he were ready to play, they wouldn't have red shirted him. I don't think this is one of those "break glass in case of emergency situations." It's not an emergency. I also have a hard time believing that he would be such an improvement over AOC or Goldwire that it justifies losing out on his 5th year...

I agree with your analysis....but if by some miracle, coach K "breaks the glass" (great analogy by the way) - then there's one poster around here, I forget who, that has been slammed pretty rudely due to his support of lifting the redshirt now - who will able to dish out ample servings of crow.

CDu
02-23-2019, 01:25 PM
Is he officially red shirted though?

He won’t be “officially” redshirted until after the season. But it seems pretty obvious that the plan is to redshirt him.

Furniture
02-23-2019, 01:27 PM
He won’t be officially redshirted until after the season. But it seems pretty obvious that the plan is to redshirt him.

OK thanks. I didn’t know how that works...

https://www.fayobserver.com/sports/20190219/duke-coach-mike-krzyzewski-praises-joey-baker-for-bench-presence

ChicagoCrazy84
02-23-2019, 01:36 PM
Is he officially red shirted though?

Never officially redshirted until the end of the season. Until then, it's just a "plan." Never know, Zion, RJ, and Cam could all get hurt and just like that you'd need to insert him.

UrinalCake
02-23-2019, 01:59 PM
Given the following three potential scenarios:

- Alex has a good shooting night
- Jack has a good shooting night
- Joey blows his red shirt, plays his first college game ever against one of the most complex defenses to crack in the country, and had a good shooting night

The third option is far less likely to happen than the other two. To say nothing of how unprepared Joey is on the defensive side of the court.

We have a hole to fill with Zion out, and our shooting has been poor. It’s natural to look for an answer, and we have a guy on the bench who has never missed a shot. But realistically, he’s not going to outperform the guys we have.

Wahoo2000
02-23-2019, 03:22 PM
There are ways to beat a zone:
1. Hit outside shots which spreads zone out
2. Penetrate the zone for good shots or kick outs to shooters when zone collapses
3. Hit offensive boards for put backs and kick outs
4. Play good pressure defense and turn the other team over.... best offense in the world is a layup/dunk after steal or rebound

If I'm K, I prob start out playing some pressure m2m half-court D, and hoping that Duke shoots jumpers well enough beat the 2-3 zone. If that doesn't happen, I think I go the "Louisville route" and play a really aggressive full court trap that collapses back into a zone to conserve energy when they DO make it past half court. You hope to get enough easy buckets off of turnovers to compensate for poor shooting vs the set defense of Cuse. You also hope guys can buy enough rest when you're in your halfcourt D, and walking it up/passing it around vs their set defense.

Sluggo
02-23-2019, 05:26 PM
After seeing this team win games with great shooting (Virginia), with not so great shooting, win after being way down (Louisville), the Tre shoulder injury, Zion getting poked in the eye, the sneaker blow out, I can say with great certainty, I have no idea what to expect today. Sorry, I know that is not very helpful.

-jk
02-23-2019, 05:38 PM
DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

Wildling
02-23-2019, 05:43 PM
Please Lord, for the love of everything that is holy, we have to beat Syracuse tonight.

I don't think I can take another loss to my 2nd least favorite fan base. I almost despise the SU fan base as much as the cheats.....almost.....

Dr. Rosenrosen
02-23-2019, 05:50 PM
Please Lord, for the love of everything that is holy, we have to beat Syracuse tonight.

I don't think I can take another loss to my 2nd least favorite fan base. I almost despise the SU fan base as much as the cheats...almost...
How is that even possible when there are Kentucky and Maryland fans walking this earth?

fuse
02-23-2019, 05:52 PM
Unreasonably nervous.

Let’s Go Duke!!

Wildling
02-23-2019, 05:58 PM
How is that even possible when there are Kentucky and Maryland fans walking this earth?

I have very close friends from Syracuse. As soon as they joined the ACC, they've all decided Duke is their #1 rival. They are an insufferable fan base. They quickly replaced the Maryland fans as some of the most annoying fans to grace this planet.

fuse
02-23-2019, 06:05 PM
Alex and Javin starting...

SCMatt33
02-23-2019, 06:22 PM
Four threes and two twos in the first 4 minutes. That can’t be what was practiced all week.

accfanfrom1970
02-23-2019, 06:25 PM
Joey?

Mak P
02-23-2019, 06:25 PM
Who said baker will never play?

Well you look stupid

scottdude8
02-23-2019, 06:25 PM
Well, everything we all said about Joey Baker is now out the window. I’m flabbergasted. Prove us all wrong Joey!

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-23-2019, 06:26 PM
Baker! Let's go!

nmduke2001
02-23-2019, 06:26 PM
Baker. What the what?

uh_no
02-23-2019, 06:26 PM
where's acymetric..i think i owe him a pie at least

sweetchiba51
02-23-2019, 06:27 PM
Thowing up 3s, poor defense...the boys just can't shoot the ball.

scottdude8
02-23-2019, 06:27 PM
Side note: Vrank in too. Was there any news of Marques being sick or banged up?

fuse
02-23-2019, 06:29 PM
Shocked. Hoping Baker has a great game.

Phredd3
02-23-2019, 06:29 PM
Baker 0-for-1. He has seemed reluctant to pull the trigger so far. Doesn't look to be used to college speed.

Mak P
02-23-2019, 06:30 PM
Thowing up 3s, poor defense...the boys just can't shoot the ball.

Idk what you're watching, we're playing solid defense without Zion

MChambers
02-23-2019, 06:30 PM
Side note: Vrank in too. Was there any news of Marques being sick or banged up?

Marques was sick before the NC State game. Stomach flu, or at least it sounded like that.

hallcity
02-23-2019, 06:30 PM
Jack White in sweats on the bench.

BigZ
02-23-2019, 06:31 PM
Put Justin in. He blocks shots and can hit 3s

nmduke2001
02-23-2019, 06:32 PM
I wonder if baker giving up the redshirt means that Zion might not come back. I hope not.

wsb3
02-23-2019, 06:32 PM
I was just asked if it was unusual for K to burn a red shirt so late..Uh-Yes.

😲

InSpades
02-23-2019, 06:32 PM
14 shots... 8 3s. Where have we seen this before?

Cam is immensely talented and plays really hard but his decision making leaves a lot to be desired. The super long 3 followed by the going up w/ 1 hand on the ball against a trailing defender.

Joey Baker?! I'm pretty shocked they break him out now but... hope it works out (for him and for Duke!).

dukelion
02-23-2019, 06:33 PM
K will never have another Zion or RJ playing together......ever.

Need to pull out all the stops this season......that's my theory on Joey.

rsvman
02-23-2019, 06:38 PM
I wonder if baker giving up the redshirt means that Zion might not come back. I hope not.

I don't think so.

uh_no
02-23-2019, 06:38 PM
I wonder if baker giving up the redshirt means that Zion might not come back. I hope not.

that would counter literally everything that k has said on the matter.

SCMatt33
02-23-2019, 06:39 PM
That segment looked much better offensively. Even the possessions where we took a three, it came off of penetration and getting the zone moving around. Gotta keep bringing the ball into the zone.

InSpades
02-23-2019, 06:39 PM
K will never have another Zion or RJ playing together...ever.

Need to pull out all the stops this season...that's my theory on Joey.

You could just leave it at "K will never have another Zion". If he can shoots some 3s and play decent defense then Joey will be a step up from what we've been getting off the bench. It just seems weird that now is when you decide to play him.

fuse
02-23-2019, 06:39 PM
Wonder if Bolden and White are sick?

hallcity
02-23-2019, 06:39 PM
K will never have another Zion or RJ playing together...ever.

Need to pull out all the stops this season...that's my theory on Joey.

Baker has to hit a three soon. That’s why he’s in the game.

uh_no
02-23-2019, 06:40 PM
Wonder if Bolden and White are sick?

wouldn't be surprised... stuffs going around

scottdude8
02-23-2019, 06:40 PM
FWIW, as shocked as we all are by this development it isn’t overly unusual... in fact it’s already happened this year. Kansas burned the redshirt of one of their freshmen bigs (I forget his name) when Udoka went down for the year, and he’s been a huge boost for them. Let’s hope Joey can replicate that!

P.S. For everyone who asked “has Joey been officially redshirted?” and were annoyed that there wasn’t a clear, easy answer... this is why.

CarmenWallaceWade
02-23-2019, 06:41 PM
Stephen Wiseman’s (N&O) Twitter:

“Joey Baker has impressed coaching staff in practice. I mean, where else, right? Vets are struggling. He's a good outside shooter. Duke desperately needs that.”

BigZ
02-23-2019, 06:44 PM
Tre needs to stay

ChillinDuke
02-23-2019, 06:46 PM
Wow. I can't believe we saw Joey. I was dead wrong.

- Chillin

Mak P
02-23-2019, 06:47 PM
Tre needs to stay another year and K needs to find a shooting coach

dukelion
02-23-2019, 06:49 PM
Tre needs to stay another year and K needs to find a shooting coach

And if his shot stays the same then what?

If he's a first round lock he has to go.

SCMatt33
02-23-2019, 06:49 PM
They had one good segment and reverted right back to stand still threes. I just don’t get it. You’re a thirty percent shooting team taking more threes than twos after losing a game to this same team by taking more threes than twos. It shouldn’t matter if the other team has 5 guys standing in the paint, that should never be the case for this team. I just can’t imagine anything discussed in film sessions or in practice or during timeouts tonight has suggested they should just keep shooting stand still threes.

archand1
02-23-2019, 06:50 PM
wouldn't be surprised... stuffs going around

I'm reading this move a totally different way.

Dukehky
02-23-2019, 06:50 PM
I really don't think they would burn his redshirt this late in the season when we've lost one game with a fully healthy team, and Zion is going to come back.

When Zion comes back, Joey would likely be relegated to at most, spot minutes. If he were ready to play, they wouldn't have red shirted him. I don't think this is one of those "break glass in case of emergency situations." It's not an emergency. I also have a hard time believing that he would be such an improvement over AOC or Goldwire that it justifies losing out on his 5th year...

What do I know?

This is weird.

gotoguy
02-23-2019, 06:52 PM
Tough place to break in for Baker the shooter. Dome on the road. Pressure on to perform

fgb
02-23-2019, 06:53 PM
Tre needs to stay another year and K needs to find a shooting coach

I got slightly flamed for making this same point on this board last week. it's a big deal... the NCAA there is pretty easy, nothing like the NBA three. not going to be too effective running a pro offense if your man doesn't have to play you to shoot.

it's amazing to me when these kids, especially guards like Jones and Goldwire, have spent as much of their lives as they have playing high level ball, and still be such poor shooters.

downeastdad
02-23-2019, 06:54 PM
They had one good segment and reverted right back to stand still threes. I just don’t get it. You’re a thirty percent shooting team taking more threes than twos after losing a game to this same team by taking more threes than twos. It shouldn’t matter if the other team has 5 guys standing in the paint, that should never be the case for this team. I just can’t imagine anything discussed in film sessions or in practice or during timeouts tonight has suggested they should just keep shooting stand still threes.

That!!!

-jk
02-23-2019, 06:55 PM
that would counter literally everything that k has said on the matter.

Things have changed in the last few days...

-jk

Phredd3
02-23-2019, 06:56 PM
Baker has played how many minutes? It seems odd to burn a redshirt, but not give him significant minutes.

left_hook_lacey
02-23-2019, 06:58 PM
Tre needs to stay another year and K needs to find a shooting coach

It's a little late in life for K to try to improve his shot. I mean, live your dream, but it's rare to improve shooting form in your 70's. :)

slower
02-23-2019, 06:59 PM
I've given Bilas EVERY chance to stop acting like a complete tool, but I'm done with him.

Phredd3
02-23-2019, 07:00 PM
That was a nice clean block from Baker, and instead they hang his third foul on him.

InSpades
02-23-2019, 07:00 PM
Duke is 9 of 15 from 2, 3 of 15 from 3. I'm no math expert but unless 3s are suddenly worth 6 points... (wouldn't that make them 6s?) we should be shooting more 2s than 3s.

I'm not saying we shouldn't shoot any 3s... but we certainly shouldn't be working to get 3s. Cause that's not working for us.

We've done this before... and had the same results. Why don't we adjust?!

Mak P
02-23-2019, 07:01 PM
And if his shot stays the same then what?

If he's a first round lock he has to go.

Huge if cause he's looking G-league/2nd round bound

Cam Reddish don't look good either. He should drop to the 20s

Cam and Tre need to stay another year

SCMatt33
02-23-2019, 07:02 PM
I got slightly flamed for making this same point on this board last week. it's a big deal... the NCAA there is pretty easy, nothing like the NBA three. not going to be too effective running a pro offense if your man doesn't have to play you to shoot.

it's amazing to me when these kids, especially guards like Jones and Goldwire, have spent as much of their lives as they have playing high level ball, and still be such poor shooters.

Well, unless you’re as big as Ben Simmons, but that’s besides the point. If someone is going to pick him in the first round and give him two guaranteed years, you have to go. I think it’s a total myth that you can’t develop in the NBA, and that’s doubly true when your biggest issue is your shot. You can develop that a lot better when you’re able to spend 24/7/365 working on your craft and have coaches working with you on it year round as opposed to having to spend half your time working on academics and most of the year having heavy restrictions on how much coaching you can actually receive.

scottdude8
02-23-2019, 07:02 PM
Not surprised Jack’s PT has been cut, but I am shocked that we’d play our captain 0 minutes. Any news as to whether he’s been under the weather or something? That would explain Joey’s status more too.

uh_no
02-23-2019, 07:05 PM
Not surprised Jack’s PT has been cut, but I am shocked that we’d play our captain 0 minutes. Any news as to whether he’s been under the weather or something? That would explain Joey’s status more too.

so would what jk said...

BlueandWhite
02-23-2019, 07:05 PM
That was a nice clean block from Baker, and instead they hang his third foul on him.

A ridiculous foul call. Perfectly-timed block. What was the ref looking at?

Mak P
02-23-2019, 07:06 PM
Well, unless you’re as big as Ben Simmons, but that’s besides the point. If someone is going to pick him in the first round and give him two guaranteed years, you have to go. I think it’s a total myth that you can’t develop in the NBA, and that’s doubly true when your biggest issue is your shot. You can develop that a lot better when you’re able to spend 24/7/365 working on your craft and have coaches working with you on it year round as opposed to having to spend half your time working on academics and most of the year having heavy restrictions on how much coaching you can actually receive.

How many players you see developed a long range shot in the NBA? Don't give me that almost 7 years in

duke4ever19
02-23-2019, 07:08 PM
Huge if cause he's looking G-league/2nd round bound

Cam Reddish don't look good either. He should drop to the 20s

Cam and Tre need to stay another year.

Okay. These are big statements to make, but I absolutely trust your judgment. Cam needs to immediately drop to the bottom of the first round. Please notify all NBA scouts and contact every head office. Now comes the tough part:

When do you expect to break the bad news? Is this gonna be a family sit-down kind of thing or maybe just shoot them a text? Maybe add Coach K to the mix?

wsb3
02-23-2019, 07:08 PM
I've given Bilas EVERY chance to stop acting like a complete tool, but I'm done with him.

It took this long..:D

mph
02-23-2019, 07:09 PM
Things have changed in the last few days...

-jk

Regarding the likelihood of Zion playing again this season?

House G
02-23-2019, 07:10 PM
A ridiculous foul call. Perfectly-timed block. What was the ref looking at?

Bilas.

heyman25
02-23-2019, 07:11 PM
Team can't shoot . Poor decision making. Barrett is the only decent performance. Glad Zion went to Duke. Without him we are just an average baketball team. Hoping Coach K will make some adjustments.
Like the others I know Reddish has potential, but he does not rise to the occasion. Florida State game showed what he can do, but he just never plays great when we need him to. Jones is also looking average. Tre is more important than Cam to making the team go.Kind of glad they are sitting Jack White because he has become a liability when he is on the court for about 5 weeks.

ChrisP
02-23-2019, 07:12 PM
Hope I am wrong, but I don't see Duke winning this game. We simply don't have enough offense. Cam has 2 - TWO - points at halftime :(

uh_no
02-23-2019, 07:13 PM
Regarding the likelihood of Zion playing again this season?

he might not be able to say more.

kmspeaks
02-23-2019, 07:13 PM
Move the ball around until RJ touches the ball in the middle of the zone or a lob to Javin is available = good zone offense.

Have everyone stand right next to a Cuse defender until Tre chucks a 3 = bad zone offense.

Hopefully we see more possessions of good zone offense in the second half.

jgehtland
02-23-2019, 07:15 PM
Team can't shoot . Poor decision making. Barrett is the only decent performance. Glad Zion went to Duke. Without him we are just an average baketball team. Hoping Coach K will make some adjustments.
Like the others I know Reddish has potential, but he does not rise to the occasion. Florida State game showed what he can do, but he just never plays great when we need him to. Jones is also looking average. Tre is more important than Cam to making the team go.Kind of glad they are sitting Jack White because he has become a liability when he is on the court for about 5 weeks.

Your statement is self-contradicting. If FSU showed us what he can do, but he never plays well when we need him, one of those statements is wrong.

jv001
02-23-2019, 07:16 PM
Wow! wish I'd waited to come on DBR. GoDuke!

heyman25
02-23-2019, 07:16 PM
Another stat 50 50 balls we never seem to get them any more.

carteretdevil
02-23-2019, 07:17 PM
Lots of wires combinations tonight. No flow to our offense

devildeac
02-23-2019, 07:19 PM
A ridiculous foul call. Perfectly-timed block. What was the ref looking at?

His pay stub?

SCMatt33
02-23-2019, 07:20 PM
How many players you see developed a long range shot in the NBA? Don't give me that almost 7 years in

Lots of guys develop their shot in the NBA. It’s just most guys who don’t have a shot don’t make the NBA in the first place. But with his D and passing, Tre isn’t most guys. He also doesn’t need to become Steph Curry or anything, he just needs a three point shot in the 30’s to keep teams from treating him like Ben Simmons since he doesn’t have the size to pull that off

carteretdevil
02-23-2019, 07:21 PM
Terrible foul

scottdude8
02-23-2019, 07:21 PM
There’s the halftime adjustment: getting Tre to the middle of the zone where he can shoot a shot he’s more comfortable with. Now that he’s made a few that’ll pull the middle man up and allow Tre to make some passes to open space from there.

Phredd3
02-23-2019, 07:22 PM
That foul on Tre's shot was audible. No call.

gotoguy
02-23-2019, 07:24 PM
Make a shot for once big guy geez

Phredd3
02-23-2019, 07:25 PM
Javin was fouled three times on that play, but I'll take the attempt at a four-point play.

robed deity
02-23-2019, 07:27 PM
Things have changed in the last few days...

-jk

Not encouraging...

InSpades
02-23-2019, 07:27 PM
We are attacking the zone 10 times more in the 2nd half than we were in the 1st half. That's a great sign for the rest of this game (and hopefully the rest of this season). RJ is tremendous when he's attacking the basket, 1 of the best players in the country.

downeastdad
02-23-2019, 07:28 PM
Great shot of Zion clapping on AOC 3. Love that kid!

Skydog
02-23-2019, 07:30 PM
I like DeLaurier’s energy but he really does not finish through contact, no matter how soft. Not much upper body strength. Made some sweet blocks though.

downeastdad
02-23-2019, 07:35 PM
Getting sick of Bilass tonight myself.

jipops
02-23-2019, 07:35 PM
No stops. None.

DUKIECB
02-23-2019, 07:36 PM
What has happened to our rebounding?

SCMatt33
02-23-2019, 07:37 PM
What has happened to our rebounding?

What rebounding? 😂

downeastdad
02-23-2019, 07:37 PM
What has happened to our rebounding?

Much of it is sitting on the bench with a class 1 knee sprain.

wavedukefan70s
02-23-2019, 07:37 PM
Jay bilas has lost his mind.i like him as a announcer. But sometimes ......

uh_no
02-23-2019, 07:37 PM
What has happened to our rebounding?

well, were missing 9 boards a game and replacing it with aoc...

jgehtland
02-23-2019, 07:38 PM
What has happened to our rebounding?

Zion

fgb
02-23-2019, 07:38 PM
What has happened to our rebounding?

most desire = most rebounds.

Native
02-23-2019, 07:39 PM
There’s the halftime adjustment: getting Tre to the middle of the zone where he can shoot a shot he’s more comfortable with. Now that he’s made a few that’ll pull the middle man up and allow Tre to make some passes to open space from there.

Smart move by K. Tre can’t shoot from 3 but his midrange is pretty consistent; he can hit the floater with regularity. He can also make the right reads and kick to open guys from the center. Wish we’d do more of this when we see zone. RJ can run point from the top of the key.

Skydog
02-23-2019, 07:40 PM
I don’t understand why Bolden is so deep in the doghouse. We need his rebounding, especially with Zion not playing. And why not bring Jack in for rebounding? We are getting slaughtered on the boards. Hard to win when you get one chance and they get multiple.

fgb
02-23-2019, 07:40 PM
Zion

we shouldn't need Zion to out-muscle/hustle dolejay.

there's still time, we just need to bear down and we'll will this

HDB
02-23-2019, 07:40 PM
he might not be able to say more.

This sounds slightly concerning...

downeastdad
02-23-2019, 07:43 PM
Nice shot, Buddy.
OTOH, AOC heating up.

Phredd3
02-23-2019, 07:46 PM
Marques has played a little bit, but they just showed Jack White in street clothes on the bench. I think that must explain Joey Baker. That cannot have been a decision taken lightly this late in the season.

hallcity
02-23-2019, 07:48 PM
AOC career high already.

thedukelamere
02-23-2019, 07:48 PM
Love RJ and Zion’s bromance. Big shot, first thing RJ looks to is his buddy, saying take your time and heal big fella. I got this.

uh_no
02-23-2019, 07:48 PM
Marques has played a little bit, but they just showed Jack White in street clothes on the bench. I think that must explain Joey Baker. That cannot have been a decision taken lightly this late in the season.

i thought he was just in warmups....

downeastdad
02-23-2019, 07:50 PM
AOC outmuscles Dolejaz for the board.

ChrisP
02-23-2019, 07:52 PM
Ugh...Cam, where has your shot gone???

Skydog
02-23-2019, 07:55 PM
AOC bringing much needed energy. Team has seem mentally tired the last few games. Not surprising for freshmen with so much on their shoulders. But even Jones seems a bit mentally tired.

Skydog
02-23-2019, 07:59 PM
Our passing is so careless at times. Against NC we made so many turnovers due to poor passing and gave up transition points and revitalized our opponents.

Great run though!

robed deity
02-23-2019, 08:00 PM
Barrett is an assassin.

downeastdad
02-23-2019, 08:00 PM
Zion loving it!

Skydog
02-23-2019, 08:00 PM
Ugh...Cam, where has your shot gone???

Cam back in low confidence mode.
Good defense though

Phredd3
02-23-2019, 08:01 PM
AOC has been crucial to this game. He doesn't count as bench points, but his contribution has been monumental. And while his defense has by no means been perfect, it hasn't been a devastating liability.

Dub
02-23-2019, 08:01 PM
To all the RJ haters, please disappear forever. This is why he was considered the #1 recruit in America. Putting the team on his shoulders right now.

DUKIECB
02-23-2019, 08:02 PM
This has been Barrett's best game of the season and that's saying something.

Skydog
02-23-2019, 08:02 PM
We are so much tougher under the basket with Bolden in. He makes mistakes but his blocks, rebounds and shot altering more than make up for it.

BigZ
02-23-2019, 08:03 PM
Chickenman having his best game as a Blue Devil

fgb
02-23-2019, 08:03 PM
showing some fight now!

gotoguy
02-23-2019, 08:06 PM
Not a good pass there. R.J. open in the lane

Skydog
02-23-2019, 08:07 PM
Another unforced turnover due to low probability careless pass.

Skydog
02-23-2019, 08:10 PM
Good thing coach reads my posts! Knew we needed more Bolden.

DUKIECB
02-23-2019, 08:11 PM
Quit fouling!

Skydog
02-23-2019, 08:13 PM
Has Bilas ever seen a bad call against Duke?

fgb
02-23-2019, 08:13 PM
I love it when dudes intentionally foul, and then look incredulous when the foul is called.

Dukehky
02-23-2019, 08:16 PM
We burned Baker's redshirt for five minutes?

Acymetric
02-23-2019, 08:16 PM
where's acymetric..i think i owe him a pie at least

Did I bet that Baker would play?

Skydog
02-23-2019, 08:16 PM
Sorry AOC with 9 pt lead you need to take the dunk over the time wasting. Anything less than a dunk then pull out of it...

slower
02-23-2019, 08:16 PM
So, I guess this MAY henceforth be known as the "AOC game"?

Skydog
02-23-2019, 08:17 PM
We burned Baker's redshirt for five minutes?

Yeah, surprising.

Phredd3
02-23-2019, 08:18 PM
Solid win.