Phase V - 2018-2019 - UNC#1 through UNC#2

[superdave]

A Star Is Born - aka Introduction to Phase V
Duke has won nine straight since the loss to Cuse. Phase V is the stretch run to earn a double bye in the ACC Tournament and not only a 1-seed in the NCAA’s but the overall 1-seed with a claim to the East Regional (Columbia SC first weekend, Washington DC second).

Since Jason Evans is a movie fanatic, we’re aiming for an Oscar themed Phase writeup. If you don’t like it, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.

The Fault In Our Stars – aka Please let our players stay Healthy
This section does not need to be long. Duke is simply not a deep enough team to absorb an injury and not take a step back. We saw in the first Syracuse game how losing Tre left the team somewhat flummoxed on offense against that zone. The truly unique nature of our four freshmen make them irreplaceable. Cross your fingers, toes, and any other appendage you can cross that we don't have to deal with any injuries any more this season.

To The Gauntlet and Beyond – aka The Schedule
ESPN's BPI says that Duke's 6 game stretch from @Virginia through @Va Tech is the toughest six game stretch of any team in the country. Wrap your head around that for a second. 6 straight games against tournament teams, 4 of which are on the road. Bart Torvik's T-rank page has the odds of winning every individual game on his site and if you multiply it out, T-rank says Duke has just a 7.4% chance of making it through the 6 game stretch unbeaten. It is a gauntlet and then some...

...And halfway through it Duke is 3-0 with arguably the two toughest games (@UVa and @Lou) in the rear-view mirror. Now, T-rank still only gives Duke a 43.9% chance of finishing out the Gauntlet unblemished, but this team sure looks like it is capable of remarkable stuff.

Once the Gauntlet is over, things ease up... a lot. We get a pair of home games with Miami and Wake, two teams who are going nowhere. The team has been prone to lack of focus at times this season, though they usually are able to turn it on in the second half and find victory (often by crazy margins). Could a let up following the Gauntlet lead to a head scratching loss to Wake or (more likely) Miami?

Then the regular season (and this phase) concludes with the Carolina rematch. No worries about a lack of focus there.

No Country For Old Men – aka As the Rotation Tightens
Tre Jones went the full 40 in each of our last three games. Alex O’Connell had a DNP then 6 then 4 minutes. It’s that time of year, DBR! Bolden and DeLaurier still seem to be in a semi-platoon situation depending on matchups.

The one surprise is Jack White’s minutes have declined. He has not topped 20 minutes since the January 22nd game vs. Pitt. (More on Jack in the shooting section).

And then there is Jordan Goldwire, who was so key in the defensive pressure that allowed Duke to beat Louisville. Jordan only played 4 minutes against NC State, but he was out there in a somewhat competitive game, which has not been the case for most of the ACC season. If Jordan is even getting 3-5 minutes per game against significant opponents, then it means K is actually playing 9 different guys somewhat regularly (even if "regularly" means less than 7 minutes per game). That would be pretty different from most past seasons.

The other thing to monitor is Zion’s foul trouble. That can open up minutes (not in a good way!). Zion fouled out vs Texas Tech and Virginia and sat for stretches vs NCSU and Louisville. Opponents seem to be sitting on his spin move on drives and moving their feet to draw the charge or catch him losing his handle. Bears watching.

Lastly, we should all be on the lookout to see whether the "freshman wall" impacts the team. There isn't a single player on the roster, even the upperclassmen who get time, who has played anywhere close to these kind of minutes in a season. Typically, freshmen (or upperclassmen taking on a larger role) suffer a slump around the middle of January as they figure out how to get their second wind. Strangely, this Duke team actually seems to be playing better and better as the season moves along. Here's hoping we are now past the point where cumulative season fatigue is an issue for this club.

You Cant Handle The Truth – aka 3-Point Shooting
Since going 4-6 vs Clemson, Jack White is 1-24 from the bonusphere. Cam had a 4 game stretch where he hit at least 4 three’s. Then he followed that up going 1-7 vs. State.

The team is shooting .313 on the season which ranks #316 in the country. We have no idea if this is sustainable or not. Duke won the title in 2010 with extended slumps from Singler and Scheyer. But that team still hit .385 for the season, so it wasn’t all that bad.

Coach Scheyer famously said in the wake of the win at UVA that this club is a really good shooting team in practice. We certainly hope his expectations of stronger outside shooting come to pass. We get giddy thinking about what the rest of the season would be like if Duke is really a 35% 3-point shooting team and spend the next 2 months bringing their average up to where it belongs.

Highway to the Danger Zone – aka Halfcourt Offense/Offense vs. Zone D
A lot of opponents are throwing zone at Duke to prevent drives and dare them to chuck 3’s. They are also working pretty hard to keep Zion and RJ out of the high post in those sets.

In the Louisville game, the guys were clanking shots off the rim for a solid 30 minutes. It was painful, especially with those loud, hard rims at Yum! But then the offense started feeding off the defense, the game sped up, and Duke scored 35 in the final ten minutes.

The 3-ball is a major limiting factor for this year’s team. It can really bog down the offense vs. mature defensive opponents. But our defense is so good that we can score before the halfcourt D gets set. So our best counter to the zone has been to speed the game, attack the primary ballhandler, attack the passing lanes and get transition buckets.

The game during this phase that will really test Duke's patience is at Syracuse. The Orange are famous for that zone that keeps you away from the lane. Last time, minus Tre, Duke chucked up 43 3-point attempts as we sorta gave up trying to get to the hoop.
There are certainly some efficiencies to be found on offense, but is it more important for this team to play loose and get into a groove than anything?

Mad Max: Fury Road – aka Transition D/Defensive Pressure
Holy moly – the Louisville ending was like pitching a perfect game for a solid ten minutes of game action. We’ve seen this team play downhill many times already. Everyone plays D, everyone has length, quickness, and can overwhelm.

We are #4 in Adjusted D on KenPom. The last four games, we’ve allowed 2 or fewer fast break points in three of the last four games (h/t Kedsy). Our defensive rebounding % has been 85.7%, 73.7%, 54.8% (UVA), 82.9% and 73.3% the last five games (Kedsy again). Except for the UVA clunker (still won by 10) that is phenomenal!

Our opponents Assist:Turnover ratio is 0.78. The guys are #1 in the country at 14.1% steal percentage. They are #2 in block percentage at 17.3%. Combined, that is 31.4%. Put another way, one out of every three defensive possessions end with Duke racing the other way from a steal or a blocked shot. We don’t even know how to wrap our heads around this information. We are gambling a lot on D and coming up with the ball. This section read like a senior superlative section of the valedictorian.

Almost Famous – aka The hype around this team is insane
We have a lot of years of watching Duke basketball and it is hard to recall a team surrounded by this much hype. The 1992 defending national champs probably come the closest, but that was before the internet and social media changed communications and was before the "DaNaNa, DaNaNa" of Sportscenter became a cultural icon. I mean, we are legitimately tracking how many times a Duke play shows up among the ten biggest plays of the day on the top sports broadcast in the world and it is not at all uncommon for 2 or 3 Duke plays to make the cut!

Duke games have become must see, and must attend, events. NBA stars are flying in to watch. President Obama is coming to a game! A friend emailed Jason to ask if Oprah would be next.

It is partially because this feels like the best Duke team in a while, and Duke is the biggest name in college basketball, but the real reason is four letters from Spartanburg, Z-I-O-N.

It is remarkable that these guys have remained so humble thus far. They say all the right things in interviews and genuinely seem to like each other and enjoy playing together. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything changes in that regard, but hype, fame, and jealousy have been known to poison many a relationship. Here's hoping we don't end up like the Beatles.

Go Duke!

[JasonEvans]

In case it was not clear, Super and I wrote this together. I did all the good stuff and whatever parts you think are lame are by him ;)

[camion]

In case it was not clear, Super and I wrote this together. I did all the good stuff and whatever parts you think are lame are by him ;)

Nice writeup. I love whimsy. :cool:


Camion (My ability is exceeded only by my modesty. :p)

[TruBlu]

I object to the title of this thread! The only time unc and # 1 could be used together is in a thread one about cheating.

Other than that, thanks.

[superdave]

I object to the title of this thread! The only time unc and # 1 could be used together is in a thread one about cheating.

Other than that, thanks.

#1 in fake classes!

I object to having Unc twice within 2.5 weeks and State only once. Anyone have Swofford's email?

[devildeac]

#1 in fake classes!

I object to having Unc twice within 2.5 weeks and State only once. Anyone have Swofford's email?

iknewtoo@acc/cheats.org

(not a real link)

[toughbuff1]

A Star Is Born - aka Introduction to Phase V
Duke has won nine straight since the loss to Cuse. Phase V is the stretch run to earn a double bye in the ACC Tournament and not only a 1-seed in the NCAA’s but the overall 1-seed with a claim to the East Regional (Columbia SC first weekend, Washington DC second).

Since Jason Evans is a movie fanatic, we’re aiming for an Oscar themed Phase writeup. If you don’t like it, well, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.

The Fault In Our Stars – aka Please let our players stay Healthy
This section does not need to be long. Duke is simply not a deep enough team to absorb an injury and not take a step back. We saw in the first Syracuse game how losing Tre left the team somewhat flummoxed on offense against that zone. The truly unique nature of our four freshmen make them irreplaceable. Cross your fingers, toes, and any other appendage you can cross that we don't have to deal with any injuries any more this season.

To The Gauntlet and Beyond – aka The Schedule
ESPN's BPI says that Duke's 6 game stretch from @Virginia through @Va Tech is the toughest six game stretch of any team in the country. Wrap your head around that for a second. 6 straight games against tournament teams, 4 of which are on the road. Bart Torvik's T-rank page has the odds of winning every individual game on his site and if you multiply it out, T-rank says Duke has just a 7.4% chance of making it through the 6 game stretch unbeaten. It is a gauntlet and then some...

...And halfway through it Duke is 3-0 with arguably the two toughest games (@UVa and @Lou) in the rear-view mirror. Now, T-rank still only gives Duke a 43.9% chance of finishing out the Gauntlet unblemished, but this team sure looks like it is capable of remarkable stuff.

Once the Gauntlet is over, things ease up... a lot. We get a pair of home games with Miami and Wake, two teams who are going nowhere. The team has been prone to lack of focus at times this season, though they usually are able to turn it on in the second half and find victory (often by crazy margins). Could a let up following the Gauntlet lead to a head scratching loss to Wake or (more likely) Miami?

Then the regular season (and this phase) concludes with the Carolina rematch. No worries about a lack of focus there.

No Country For Old Men – aka As the Rotation Tightens
Tre Jones went the full 40 in each of our last three games. Alex O’Connell had a DNP then 6 then 4 minutes. It’s that time of year, DBR! Bolden and DeLaurier still seem to be in a semi-platoon situation depending on matchups.

The one surprise is Jack White’s minutes have declined. He has not topped 20 minutes since the January 22nd game vs. Pitt. (More on Jack in the shooting section).

And then there is Jordan Goldwire, who was so key in the defensive pressure that allowed Duke to beat Louisville. Jordan only played 4 minutes against NC State, but he was out there in a somewhat competitive game, which has not been the case for most of the ACC season. If Jordan is even getting 3-5 minutes per game against significant opponents, then it means K is actually playing 9 different guys somewhat regularly (even if "regularly" means less than 7 minutes per game). That would be pretty different from most past seasons.

The other thing to monitor is Zion’s foul trouble. That can open up minutes (not in a good way!). Zion fouled out vs Texas Tech and Virginia and sat for stretches vs NCSU and Louisville. Opponents seem to be sitting on his spin move on drives and moving their feet to draw the charge or catch him losing his handle. Bears watching.

Lastly, we should all be on the lookout to see whether the "freshman wall" impacts the team. There isn't a single player on the roster, even the upperclassmen who get time, who has played anywhere close to these kind of minutes in a season. Typically, freshmen (or upperclassmen taking on a larger role) suffer a slump around the middle of January as they figure out how to get their second wind. Strangely, this Duke team actually seems to be playing better and better as the season moves along. Here's hoping we are now past the point where cumulative season fatigue is an issue for this club.

You Cant Handle The Truth – aka 3-Point Shooting
Since going 4-6 vs Clemson, Jack White is 1-24 from the bonusphere. Cam had a 4 game stretch where he hit at least 4 three’s. Then he followed that up going 1-7 vs. State.

The team is shooting .313 on the season which ranks #316 in the country. We have no idea if this is sustainable or not. Duke won the title in 2010 with extended slumps from Singler and Scheyer. But that team still hit .385 for the season, so it wasn’t all that bad.

Coach Scheyer famously said in the wake of the win at UVA that this club is a really good shooting team in practice. We certainly hope his expectations of stronger outside shooting come to pass. We get giddy thinking about what the rest of the season would be like if Duke is really a 35% 3-point shooting team and spend the next 2 months bringing their average up to where it belongs.

Highway to the Danger Zone – aka Halfcourt Offense/Offense vs. Zone D
A lot of opponents are throwing zone at Duke to prevent drives and dare them to chuck 3’s. They are also working pretty hard to keep Zion and RJ out of the high post in those sets.

In the Louisville game, the guys were clanking shots off the rim for a solid 30 minutes. It was painful, especially with those loud, hard rims at Yum! But then the offense started feeding off the defense, the game sped up, and Duke scored 35 in the final ten minutes.

The 3-ball is a major limiting factor for this year’s team. It can really bog down the offense vs. mature defensive opponents. But our defense is so good that we can score before the halfcourt D gets set. So our best counter to the zone has been to speed the game, attack the primary ballhandler, attack the passing lanes and get transition buckets.

The game during this phase that will really test Duke's patience is at Syracuse. The Orange are famous for that zone that keeps you away from the lane. Last time, minus Tre, Duke chucked up 43 3-point attempts as we sorta gave up trying to get to the hoop.
There are certainly some efficiencies to be found on offense, but is it more important for this team to play loose and get into a groove than anything?

Mad Max: Fury Road – aka Transition D/Defensive Pressure
Holy moly – the Louisville ending was like pitching a perfect game for a solid ten minutes of game action. We’ve seen this team play downhill many times already. Everyone plays D, everyone has length, quickness, and can overwhelm.

We are #4 in Adjusted D on KenPom. The last four games, we’ve allowed 2 or fewer fast break points in three of the last four games (h/t Kedsy). Our defensive rebounding % has been 85.7%, 73.7%, 54.8% (UVA), 82.9% and 73.3% the last five games (Kedsy again). Except for the UVA clunker (still won by 10) that is phenomenal!

Our opponents Assist:Turnover ratio is 0.78. The guys are #1 in the country at 14.1% steal percentage. They are #2 in block percentage at 17.3%. Combined, that is 31.4%. Put another way, one out of every three defensive possessions end with Duke racing the other way from a steal or a blocked shot. We don’t even know how to wrap our heads around this information. We are gambling a lot on D and coming up with the ball. This section read like a senior superlative section of the valedictorian.

Almost Famous – aka The hype around this team is insane
We have a lot of years of watching Duke basketball and it is hard to recall a team surrounded by this much hype. The 1992 defending national champs probably come the closest, but that was before the internet and social media changed communications and was before the "DaNaNa, DaNaNa" of Sportscenter became a cultural icon. I mean, we are legitimately tracking how many times a Duke play shows up among the ten biggest plays of the day on the top sports broadcast in the world and it is not at all uncommon for 2 or 3 Duke plays to make the cut!

Duke games have become must see, and must attend, events. NBA stars are flying in to watch. President Obama is coming to a game! A friend emailed Jason to ask if Oprah would be next.

It is partially because this feels like the best Duke team in a while, and Duke is the biggest name in college basketball, but the real reason is four letters from Spartanburg, Z-I-O-N.

It is remarkable that these guys have remained so humble thus far. They say all the right things in interviews and genuinely seem to like each other and enjoy playing together. At this point, it is hard to imagine anything changes in that regard, but hype, fame, and jealousy have been known to poison many a relationship. Here's hoping we don't end up like the Beatles.

Go Duke!

Great writeup! Don't forget we were also missing Cam in the Syracuse game.

[brevity]

I object to the title of this thread! The only time unc and # 1 could be used together is in a thread one about cheating.

I’m okay with it. I read “UNC#1” and “UNC#2” as potty options.

Still, in the phase reports of the past, we used Roman numerals, which also works with the movie theme.

[Jeffrey]

The one surprise is Jack White’s minutes have declined. He has not topped 20 minutes since the January 22nd game vs. Pitt.

Given Jack's play, since January 22nd, is that truly surprising? History repeats and the rotation was going to tighten.

Where's kAzE and Troublemaker? I doubt they approve of less minutes.

[COYS]

The rotation has thinned a little, but in comparison to other seasons, I don't think the staff wants it to stay this way. I think they would love it if Jack got back into his early-season form and could spend a few more minutes on the court. That goes for Jav, too, who is also working his way out of a funk. Both of those guys have A LOT to offer a championship squad. We're going to need them.

[JasonEvans]

In case it was not clear, Super and I wrote this together. I did all the good stuff and whatever parts you think are lame are by him ;)

Credit where credit is due... the "No Country for Old Men" title on the rotation section was Super's idea... and it is a brilliant one!

[Kedsy]

Good job, guys. I like the movie titles.


And then there is Jordan Goldwire, who was so key in the defensive pressure that allowed Duke to beat Louisville. Jordan only played 4 minutes against NC State, but he was out there in a somewhat competitive game, which has not been the case for most of the ACC season. If Jordan is even getting 3-5 minutes per game against significant opponents, then it means K is actually playing 9 different guys somewhat regularly (even if "regularly" means less than 7 minutes per game). That would be pretty different from most past seasons.

I'm not sure how different it is. For example, last season we played 13 ACC regular season games with margins under 20 points. In those games our player with the 8th-most minutes (in that game; not always the same player) averaged 4.5 mpg and the 9th averaged 2.3 mpg. This season, we've played 9 ACC games with margins under 20 points. In those games our player with the 8th-most minutes averaged 6.0 mpg and the 9th averaged 2.7 mpg. And those numbers are skewed by the Clemson game which was a major rout that ended at 19 points because the bench guys were severely outplayed. Not counting that game, our 8th-most-minutes guy has averaged 4.9 mpg and our 9th-most-minutes guy has averaged 2.1 mpg. Basically the same as last year. I don't feel like doing this analysis for any previous seasons, but my guess is this season is not "pretty different" (or really different at all) in this regard.

But I agree with most everything else you said.

[duke2x]

It's approaching the most wonderful time of the year again. I offer the only website I can find that will let you figure out conference tournament seeds:

http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

Of interest--Duke seems to have locked up a 8 seed at least. There is one bracket possibility where #1 Duke gets UNC as a #9 and UVA as a #5.

[dukelifer]

I have enjoyed watching this team grow- but this is a very tough stretch of games moving forward. Duke has shown its weaknesses all season and at some point it might bite them. But the other thing this team has shown time and time again is fight- particularly second half fight. They do not like to lose and will fight to the end. Great teams and players have this characteristic. I have no idea how this will play out in March but it is good sign. Zion is an other-worldly talent and sometimes that can be enough to win it all but the three point shooting and foul trouble remains a huge concern. The season may hinge on consecutive good games from Cam Reddish come tourney time. He seems to play better with pressure. Tonight is a big test- but by no means the season. A lot of difficult games including 1 or 2 more against UNC or another against UVA. The next two away games will be very challenging. Will Duke be charging into the post season? We shall see.

[CDu]

I have enjoyed watching this team grow- but this is a very tough stretch of games moving forward. Duke has shown its weaknesses all season and at some point it might bite them. But the other thing this team has shown time and time again is fight- particularly second half fight. They do not like to lose and will fight to the end. Great teams and players have this characteristic. I have no idea how this will play out in March but it is good sign. Zion is an other-worldly talent and sometimes that can be enough to win it all but the three point shooting and foul trouble remains a huge concern. The season may hinge on consecutive good games from Cam Reddish come tourney time. He seems to play better with pressure. Tonight is a big test- but by no means the season. A lot of difficult games including 1 or 2 more against UNC or another against UVA. The next two away games will be very challenging. Will Duke be charging into the post season? We shall see.

Actually, we're hitting the easier part of the schedule. We just got through the tougher part (at UVa and at Louisville). The next several games are ones we are comfortably favored before wrapping up the regular season in a 50/50ish game against UNC.

Now, obviously we could lose any of the next 3 games. But it would be a fairly surprising outcome, as I'd venture we should be at least 2 to 1 favorites in all 3 games (and more like 3 to 1 tonight and at Syracuse).

[DavidBenAkiva]

The guys are #1 in the country at 14.1% steal percentage. They are #2 in block percentage at 17.3%. Combined, that is 31.4%. Put another way, one out of every three defensive possessions end with Duke racing the other way from a steal or a blocked shot. We don’t even know how to wrap our heads around this information. We are gambling a lot on D and coming up with the ball. This section read like a senior superlative section of the valedictorian.

Go Duke!

First of all, just fantastic stuff. Encore! Encore! Great job to SuperDave and Jason Evans on this one.

Second, I want to ask a question about the stats above. Is block rate only recorded when a team ends a possession in a block? Because a block does not always result in the end of the possession for the offensive team. The ball may fly out into stands and result in one more chance at a shot. That being the case, it seems more likely that Duke is ending closer to 30% or 25% of its defensive possessions with a block or steak, which is still really, really, ridiculously impressive.

[JasonEvans]

Actually, we're hitting the easier part of the schedule. We just got through the tougher part (at UVa and at Louisville). The next several games are ones we are comfortably favored before wrapping up the regular season in a 50/50ish game against UNC.

Now, obviously we could lose any of the next 3 games. But it would be a fairly surprising outcome, as I'd venture we should be at least 2 to 1 favorites in all 3 games (and more like 3 to 1 tonight and at Syracuse).

Percent chance of Duke winning each remaining game, according to T-rank (http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duke):
UNC - 81% (4-to-1)
@Syr - 81% (4-to-1)
@VT - 67% (2-to-1)
Miami - 96% (19-out-of-20)
Wake - 99% (99-out-of-100)
@UNC - 54% (50-50)

[House G]

One of my pet peeves in the OAD era has been the lack of fundamentals with regard to defensive rebounding. Mr. Sumner’s article on the home page today quotes Coach K as saying that there’s no secret recipe to rebounding and that there’s no set strategy—the ball’s up there, go and get it. I always thought there was more to it, like positioning and boxing out. As good a rebounding team as we are, our freshmen have a ways to go. White is the best on the team, DeLaurier and Bolden and Reddish are pretty good, but Barrett and Zion rarely box out. Obviously, Zion’s athleticism overcomes a lot of this. Virginia has always done a great job with this. Perhaps it’s just something I’ll have to learn to live with. After all, does anyone box out in the NBA?

[JasonEvans]

Second, I want to ask a question about the stats above. Is block rate only recorded when a team ends a possession in a block? Because a block does not always result in the end of the possession for the offensive team. The ball may fly out into stands and result in one more chance at a shot. That being the case, it seems more likely that Duke is ending closer to 30% or 25% of its defensive possessions with a block or steak, which is still really, really, ridiculously impressive.

You are correct. Block percentage is just how often you block a shot. A fair percentage of blocks go out of bounds or are rebounded by the offensive team, so it is not necessarily the end of a possession. I was using a bit of shorthand in that line and may have over-inflated how often we end a possession with a block.

[CDu]

First of all, just fantastic stuff. Encore! Encore! Great job to SuperDave and Jason Evans on this one.

Second, I want to ask a question about the stats above. Is block rate only recorded when a team ends a possession in a block? Because a block does not always result in the end of the possession for the offensive team. The ball may fly out into stands and result in one more chance at a shot. That being the case, it seems more likely that Duke is ending closer to 30% or 25% of its defensive possessions with a block or steak, which is still really, really, ridiculously impressive.

Block rate is the percentage of field goal attempts resulting in a block. For the NBA at least, they calculate it based only on 2pt attempts. I assume they do the same in college. So it is not possession-based.

[robed deity]

Block rate is the percentage of field goal attempts resulting in a block. For the NBA at least, they calculate it based only on 2pt attempts. I assume they do the same in college. So it is not possession-based.

Wait, so Zion's ridiculous block in the UVA game didn't count towards block percentage? This is a shame.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Block rate is the percentage of field goal attempts resulting in a block. For the NBA at least, they calculate it based only on 2pt attempts. I assume they do the same in college. So it is not possession-based.

Huh. What about 3-point shot attempts?

https://thespun.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/zion-williamson-block-775x465.jpg

[CDu]

Wait, so Zion's ridiculous block in the UVA game didn't count towards block percentage? This is a shame.

No, it still contributes. The actual calculation takes into account total blocks, irrespective of where the shot came from. But at least in the NBA, it doesn't penalize for facing 3pt attempts, which are harder to block. The denominator is 2pt FGA. So in the NBA at least, it's possible to have an infinite block rate (if you face a 3pt attempt and block it). I assume the same is true in college.

The calculation is 100 * (BLK * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Opp FGA - Opp 3PA)). For a team, the "MP" stuff just cancels out and it is blocks/(Opp FGA - Opp 3PA).

[robed deity]

No, it still contributes. The actual calculation takes into account total blocks, irrespective of where the shot came from. But at least in the NBA, it doesn't penalize for facing 3pt attempts, which are harder to block. The denominator is 2pt FGA. So in the NBA at least, it's possible to have an infinite block rate (if you face a 3pt attempt and block it). I assume the same is true in college.

The calculation is 100 * (BLK * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Opp FGA - Opp 3PA)). For a team, the "MP" stuff just cancels out and it is blocks/(Opp FGA - Opp 3PA).
Ah, gotcha. Yes, "harder to block" for non-superheroes.

[duke4ever19]

Percent chance of Duke winning each remaining game, according to T-rank (http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Duke):
UNC - 81% (4-to-1)
@Syr - 81% (4-to-1)
@VT - 67% (2-to-1)
Miami - 96% (19-out-of-20)
Wake - 99% (99-out-of-100)
@UNC - 54% (50-50)

Wait . . Duke is given an 81% chance of winning tonight against UNC?

That's much higher than I expected, even at home. Maybe I'm not understanding the factors that lead to that percentage.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Wait . . Duke is given an 81% chance of winning tonight against UNC?

That's much higher than I expected, even at home. Maybe I'm not understanding the factors that lead to that percentage.

...but only 2/3 chance at VT...seems like these odds think home/away is the main consideration.

[johnb]

One of my pet peeves in the OAD era has been the lack of fundamentals with regard to defensive rebounding...

Rashomon

There are many ways to look at defensive rebounding.

Told from the perspective of the shooting team, a defensive rebound is a guilt-laden tragedy both in regards to the missed shot and the lost opportunity for Redemption.

Told from the perspective of a defensive traditionalist, few things are as romantic to Witness as a solid block out between Gladiators.

From a different perspective, a large number of defensive rebounds might mean that our big guys have simply planted themselves near the basket and aren't actively switching, chasing, and creating the sort of defensive mayhem that has made them Notorious.

Told from the perspective of our freshmen, a defensive rebound is delightful--the defensive rebound (or steal, or blocked shot) can instantly transform into to an individual coast to coast sprint of Speed, or maybe a Vertigo-inducing game of keepaway (between 2 of The Usual Suspects, or maybe with the Third Man), or a 30 foot pass to one of our team's many great finishers--which, in turn, can lead to an efficient 2 points, a demoralizing turnaround, and a Sportcenter Memento for one of our Natural Born Killers.

[devildeac]

...but only 2/3 chance at VT...seems like these odds think home/away is the main consideration.

That's because we'll be playing 5 vs 9 in HokieTown when you include swofford's finest AND the Buzz, all of whom will be on the court for VT at the same time. :rolleyes::mad:

[CDu]

Wait . . Duke is given an 81% chance of winning tonight against UNC?

That's much higher than I expected, even at home. Maybe I'm not understanding the factors that lead to that percentage.

Yes, we've been expected to win by 80+% chance for a while now, and the 81% is actually down a bit from almost 85% recently (thanks to our slight underperformances in wins against Louisville and NC State and UNC's obliterating Wake).


...but only 2/3 chance at VT...seems like these odds think home/away is the main consideration.

More or less, yes. Torvik has an 11-point expected spread tonight and a 4.6 point spread expected for the Va Tech game. If you think of home vs neutral as a 5 point edge and road vs neutral as a 5 pt disadvantage, you'll see that Duke would be slightly more favored against Va Tech than against UNC on a neutral site. Which makes sense, since Torvik has UNC as the #8 team nationally and Va Tech as the # 15 team nationally. As we can see, Torvik thinks we are a 1.2 point favorite to win at UNC (54% chance).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

That's because we'll be playing 5 vs 9 in HokieTown when you include swofford's finest AND the Buzz, all of whom will be on the court for VT at the same time. :rolleyes::mad:

Ah, yes, and only VT will have night vision goggles, necessary for that arena.....

[AGDukesky]

It seems like everyone keeps forgetting that Reddish missed the Syracuse game. In the CBS game preview it only mentions Duke being without Tre. ugh

[COYS]

Rashomon

There are many ways to look at defensive rebounding.

Told from the perspective of the shooting team, a defensive rebound is a guilt-laden tragedy both in regards to the missed shot and the lost opportunity for Redemption.

Told from the perspective of a defensive traditionalist, few things are as romantic to Witness as a solid block out between Gladiators.

From a different perspective, a large number of defensive rebounds might mean that our big guys have simply planted themselves near the basket and aren't actively switching, chasing, and creating the sort of defensive mayhem that has made them Notorious.

Told from the perspective of our freshmen, a defensive rebound is delightful--the defensive rebound (or steal, or blocked shot) can instantly transform into to an individual coast to coast sprint of Speed, or maybe a Vertigo-inducing game of keepaway (between 2 of The Usual Suspects, or maybe with the Third Man), or a 30 foot pass to one of our team's many great finishers--which, in turn, can lead to an efficient 2 points, a demoralizing turnaround, and a Sportcenter Memento for one of our Natural Born Killers.

Definitely the post of this thread. Can’t spork but I wanted to give credit where credit is due.

[JasonEvans]

Definitely the post of this thread. Can’t spork but I wanted to give credit where credit is due.

Yeah, I too am unable to spork JohnB, I implore someone else to pick up the slack.

[devildeac]

Definitely the post of this thread. Can’t spork but I wanted to give credit where credit is due.


Yeah, I too am unable to spork JohnB, I implore someone else to pick up the slack.

I am here to serve, whether it be beer or sporks. Done.

[budwom]

Yeah, I too am unable to spork JohnB, I implore someone else to pick up the slack.

yes, poetic post of the day, may it lead to a glorious and memorable evening.

[crimsondevil]

... I'm not sure how different it is. For example, last season we played 13 ACC regular season games with margins under 20 points. In those games our player with the 8th-most minutes (in that game; not always the same player) averaged 4.5 mpg and the 9th averaged 2.3 mpg. This season, we've played 9 ACC games with margins under 20 points. In those games our player with the 8th-most minutes averaged 6.0 mpg and the 9th averaged 2.7 mpg. And those numbers are skewed by the Clemson game which was a major rout that ended at 19 points because the bench guys were severely outplayed. Not counting that game, our 8th-most-minutes guy has averaged 4.9 mpg and our 9th-most-minutes guy has averaged 2.1 mpg. Basically the same as last year. I don't feel like doing this analysis for any previous seasons, but my guess is this season is not "pretty different" (or really different at all) in this regard.

I think the implication was that it might be different going forward, not over the season up to this point - the 8th and 9th minutes-played are 12/6 and 4/4 over the last two games. We'll have to see.




... Coach Scheyer famously said in the wake of the win at UVA that this club is a really good shooting team in practice. We certainly hope his expectations of stronger outside shooting come to pass. We get giddy thinking about what the rest of the season would be like if Duke is really a 35% 3-point shooting team and spend the next 2 months bringing their average up to where it belongs.

Nice thought, but we can't expect them to shoot at a higher rate than their "true" average just to bring the season average up to the true rate. If they can avoid 9 for 43 games, I'll be happy.

[johnb]

yes, poetic post of the day, may it lead to a glorious and memorable evening.

Thanks!

There's no greater sound of music than the silence of the lambs!

[Kedsy]

...foul trouble remains a huge concern.

I understand that anybody can get into foul trouble in any particular game, but I hope you're not saying Duke is prone to foul trouble? We are the 5th best team in the country at keeping our opponents off the free throw line.


One of my pet peeves in the OAD era has been the lack of fundamentals with regard to defensive rebounding.

Duke under Coach K has always been a poor defensive rebounding team. Even in the 80s and 90s when we didn't have any OADs.


I think the implication was that it might be different going forward, not over the season up to this point - the 8th and 9th minutes-played are 12/6 and 4/4 over the last two games. We'll have to see.

Yes, we'll have to see. Personally, I'm not a big believer in two game samples.

[Kedsy]

No, it still contributes. The actual calculation takes into account total blocks, irrespective of where the shot came from. But at least in the NBA, it doesn't penalize for facing 3pt attempts, which are harder to block. The denominator is 2pt FGA. So in the NBA at least, it's possible to have an infinite block rate (if you face a 3pt attempt and block it). I assume the same is true in college.

The calculation is 100 * (BLK * (Tm MP / 5)) / (MP * (Opp FGA - Opp 3PA)). For a team, the "MP" stuff just cancels out and it is blocks/(Opp FGA - Opp 3PA).

This is exactly how they calculate it in college. Blocks/2-pt FGA. Which means that in a way Zion's block of Hunter actually unjustly enriched our block percentage, since it counts in the numerator but not the denominator.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It's approaching the most wonderful time of the year again. I offer the only website I can find that will let you figure out conference tournament seeds:

http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb

Of interest--Duke seems to have locked up a 8 seed at least. There is one bracket possibility where #1 Duke gets UNC as a #9 and UVA as a #5.

Nice! Someone share this with Lunardi next time he discusses a "lock."


Sporks for you, friend!

[cato]

I’m okay with it. I read “UNC#1” and “UNC#2” as potty options.

Still, in the phase reports of the past, we used Roman numerals, which also works with the movie theme.

You are virtually spork proof, my friend, as I always seem to need to spread some sporks around when I try to send sporks your way.

[cato]

Rashomon

There are many ways to look at defensive rebounding.

Told from the perspective of the shooting team, a defensive rebound is a guilt-laden tragedy both in regards to the missed shot and the lost opportunity for Redemption.

Told from the perspective of a defensive traditionalist, few things are as romantic to Witness as a solid block out between Gladiators.

From a different perspective, a large number of defensive rebounds might mean that our big guys have simply planted themselves near the basket and aren't actively switching, chasing, and creating the sort of defensive mayhem that has made them Notorious.

Told from the perspective of our freshmen, a defensive rebound is delightful--the defensive rebound (or steal, or blocked shot) can instantly transform into to an individual coast to coast sprint of Speed, or maybe a Vertigo-inducing game of keepaway (between 2 of The Usual Suspects, or maybe with the Third Man), or a 30 foot pass to one of our team's many great finishers--which, in turn, can lead to an efficient 2 points, a demoralizing turnaround, and a Sportcenter Memento for one of our Natural Born Killers.

👏 👏 👏

[JasonEvans]

The Fault In Our Stars – aka Please let our players stay Healthy
This section does not need to be long. Duke is simply not a deep enough team to absorb an injury and not take a step back. We saw in the first Syracuse game how losing Tre left the team somewhat flummoxed on offense against that zone. The truly unique nature of our four freshmen make them irreplaceable. Cross your fingers, toes, and any other appendage you can cross that we don't have to deal with any injuries any more this season.

$%*@#*!&#$@%@

'Nuf said.

[CDu]

Fun Phase thread idea. Sadly, I think we have to add a few to the mix now:

The Departed: With Zion's injury, he's now out. Will he come back in this Phase? Ugh, this sucks.
Titanic: Does Zion's absence sink our chances of an ACC regular season title? An ACC title? Or worse? We went from being in the driver's seat to hoping to claw our way to a rematch still in position to win it. These next two games are going to be dogfights for us.
A Beautiful Mind: With Zion out, it will be interesting to see what Coach K comes up with to get this team going. He figured it out when Boozer went down. He figured it out when Tre Jones went down. We didn't fully recover from some other injuries though. And this year's team is lighter on talent depth and experience than Coach K is used to when we have had to overcome such injuries.
Gladiator: I would expect RJ Barrett to play 40 minutes a game from now until Zion returns. Hopefully he's up to carrying the team better than he was early in the season. We're going to need him to play like the #1 recruit in the country now.
Platoon: This season, we've basically only played Bolden and DeLaurier in a platoon. With Zion out, will we see more of the two together? Or will we go smaller with White at PF and maintain the C platoon?
Ordinary People: We haven't had to rely on our bench much this year. Well, now we may need them to step up. Can White regain his confidence/touch from 3? Whither O'Connell's silky offensive skill set? Can Goldwire maintain his frenetic defensive energy consistently, while also not being a complete liability on offense? Can DeLaurier and Bolden make themselves consistent presences?

[robed deity]

Fun Phase thread idea. Sadly, I think we have to add a few to the mix now:

The Departed: With Zion's injury, he's now out. Will he come back in this Phase? Ugh, this sucks.
Titanic: Does Zion's absence sink our chances of an ACC regular season title? An ACC title? Or worse? We went from being in the driver's seat to hoping to claw our way to a rematch still in position to win it. These next two games are going to be dogfights for us.
A Beautiful Mind: With Zion out, it will be interesting to see what Coach K comes up with to get this team going. He figured it out when Boozer went down. He figured it out when Tre Jones went down. We didn't fully recover from some other injuries though. And this year's team is lighter on talent depth and experience than Coach K is used to when we have had to overcome such injuries.
Gladiator: I would expect RJ Barrett to play 40 minutes a game from now until Zion returns. Hopefully he's up to carrying the team better than he was early in the season. We're going to need him to play like the #1 recruit in the country now.
Platoon: This season, we've basically only played Bolden and DeLaurier in a platoon. With Zion out, will we see more of the two together? Or will we go smaller with White at PF and maintain the C platoon?
Ordinary People: We haven't had to rely on our bench much this year. Well, now we may need them to step up. Can White regain his confidence/touch from 3? Whither O'Connell's silky offensive skill set? Can Goldwire maintain his frenetic defensive energy consistently, while also not being a complete liability on offense? Can DeLaurier and Bolden make themselves consistent presences?

Nice post. Also, Return of the Jedi, hopefully.

[jv001]

Fun Phase thread idea. Sadly, I think we have to add a few to the mix now:

The Departed: With Zion's injury, he's now out. Will he come back in this Phase? Ugh, this sucks.
Titanic: Does Zion's absence sink our chances of an ACC regular season title? An ACC title? Or worse? We went from being in the driver's seat to hoping to claw our way to a rematch still in position to win it. These next two games are going to be dogfights for us.
A Beautiful Mind: With Zion out, it will be interesting to see what Coach K comes up with to get this team going. He figured it out when Boozer went down. He figured it out when Tre Jones went down. We didn't fully recover from some other injuries though. And this year's team is lighter on talent depth and experience than Coach K is used to when we have had to overcome such injuries.
Gladiator: I would expect RJ Barrett to play 40 minutes a game from now until Zion returns. Hopefully he's up to carrying the team better than he was early in the season. We're going to need him to play like the #1 recruit in the country now.
Platoon: This season, we've basically only played Bolden and DeLaurier in a platoon. With Zion out, will we see more of the two together? Or will we go smaller with White at PF and maintain the C platoon?
Ordinary People: We haven't had to rely on our bench much this year. Well, now we may need them to step up. Can White regain his confidence/touch from 3? Whither O'Connell's silky offensive skill set? Can Goldwire maintain his frenetic defensive energy consistently, while also not being a complete liability on offense? Can DeLaurier and Bolden make themselves consistent presences?

Right about now, I dream of Tre getting Tyus offensive game. Well the offense of late 2015. We need one more scorer to step up. GoDuke!

[Saratoga2]

Fun Phase thread idea. Sadly, I think we have to add a few to the mix now:

The Departed: With Zion's injury, he's now out. Will he come back in this Phase? Ugh, this sucks.
Titanic: Does Zion's absence sink our chances of an ACC regular season title? An ACC title? Or worse? We went from being in the driver's seat to hoping to claw our way to a rematch still in position to win it. These next two games are going to be dogfights for us.
A Beautiful Mind: With Zion out, it will be interesting to see what Coach K comes up with to get this team going. He figured it out when Boozer went down. He figured it out when Tre Jones went down. We didn't fully recover from some other injuries though. And this year's team is lighter on talent depth and experience than Coach K is used to when we have had to overcome such injuries.
Gladiator: I would expect RJ Barrett to play 40 minutes a game from now until Zion returns. Hopefully he's up to carrying the team better than he was early in the season. We're going to need him to play like the #1 recruit in the country now.
Platoon: This season, we've basically only played Bolden and DeLaurier in a platoon. With Zion out, will we see more of the two together? Or will we go smaller with White at PF and maintain the C platoon?
Ordinary People: We haven't had to rely on our bench much this year. Well, now we may need them to step up. Can White regain his confidence/touch from 3? Whither O'Connell's silky offensive skill set? Can Goldwire maintain his frenetic defensive energy consistently, while also not being a complete liability on offense? Can DeLaurier and Bolden make themselves consistent presences?

The only one showing any real offensive potential is O'Connell. Perhaps running him off of screens and advising him to take shots when he has them might get him going. He seems to have regressed instead of progressed. Jack at one time could hit an open 3. He has no other offensive game and with that part totally missing he doesn't look reliable. DeLauier and Bolden set up dunks or other dunks only. Goldwire nothing. Good luck to K finding a magic elixir.

[simplyluvin]

Back when Tre went out, a lot of outside prognosticators and posters here said he is our most important player. I still think he is, and he will have to be in this next stretch of 5 games.

The key to our success without Zion will be how well Tre sets up the team. Would love to see him dribble and penetrate more and kick it out to guys like Cam and Alex, and maybe even Jack. Tre playing his usually amazing D is also a must-have, but if Tre elevates his facilitation and keeps up his Ast/TO ratio, I don't think we need Tre to be a scorer, although that will really help. Having to do this against the Cuse zone will be a big challenge, but it's a winnable game, although I like our chances better against VT if Robinson is still out.

[superdave]

Fun Phase thread idea. Sadly, I think we have to add a few to the mix now:

The Departed: With Zion's injury, he's now out. Will he come back in this Phase? Ugh, this sucks.
Titanic: Does Zion's absence sink our chances of an ACC regular season title? An ACC title? Or worse? We went from being in the driver's seat to hoping to claw our way to a rematch still in position to win it. These next two games are going to be dogfights for us.
A Beautiful Mind: With Zion out, it will be interesting to see what Coach K comes up with to get this team going. He figured it out when Boozer went down. He figured it out when Tre Jones went down. We didn't fully recover from some other injuries though. And this year's team is lighter on talent depth and experience than Coach K is used to when we have had to overcome such injuries.
Gladiator: I would expect RJ Barrett to play 40 minutes a game from now until Zion returns. Hopefully he's up to carrying the team better than he was early in the season. We're going to need him to play like the #1 recruit in the country now.
Platoon: This season, we've basically only played Bolden and DeLaurier in a platoon. With Zion out, will we see more of the two together? Or will we go smaller with White at PF and maintain the C platoon?
Ordinary People: We haven't had to rely on our bench much this year. Well, now we may need them to step up. Can White regain his confidence/touch from 3? Whither O'Connell's silky offensive skill set? Can Goldwire maintain his frenetic defensive energy consistently, while also not being a complete liability on offense? Can DeLaurier and Bolden make themselves consistent presences?


I would expect Javin to replace Bolden at the 5 and O'Connell to be added in to Zion's spot and for us to go small, press a lot and play faster.

I would also expect RJ to initiate the halfcourt offense a lot more with Javin setting a high pick and RJ going to work. Think Nolan running the offense when Kyrie went out.

We are less dynamic now (much, much less) so we need to run more set offense. We also need more scoring, so here's hoping Alex can step up. We need more energy, so Javin, Alex and Jordan will be expected to generate some energy in newfound minutes.

We shall see. Hope it doesnt last too long.

[jv001]

Back when Tre went out, a lot of outside prognosticators and posters here said he is our most important player. I still think he is, and he will have to be in this next stretch of 5 games.

The key to our success without Zion will be how well Tre sets up the team. Would love to see him dribble and penetrate more and kick it out to guys like Cam and Alex, and maybe even Jack. Tre playing his usually amazing D is also a must-have, but if Tre elevates his facilitation and keeps up his Ast/TO ratio, I don't think we need Tre to be a scorer, although that will really help. Having to do this against the Cuse zone will be a big challenge, but it's a winnable game, although I like our chances better against VT if Robinson is still out.

If we can turn the Orange over and create points off said turnovers that will help offset our inept 3 point shooting. Also getting the ball to a player at the foul line will be critical to our success against their zone. Some teams were able to do this and they came away with a win. Others didn't and walked away with a loss. We'll have to take good shots and not force things. I guess all this should be n the Cuse game thread. Sorry. GoDuke!

[superdave]

I would expect Javin to replace Bolden at the 5 and O'Connell to be added in to Zion's spot and for us to go small, press a lot and play faster.

I would also expect RJ to initiate the halfcourt offense a lot more with Javin setting a high pick and RJ going to work. Think Nolan running the offense when Kyrie went out.

We are less dynamic now (much, much less) so we need to run more set offense. We also need more scoring, so here's hoping Alex can step up. We need more energy, so Javin, Alex and Jordan will be expected to generate some energy in newfound minutes.

We shall see. Hope it doesnt last too long.

I was right about Javin and Alex starting but wrong about the press. I think it was an energy move for Coach K - Alex and Javin are higher energy than Bolden, so it made sense with Zion (THE energizer bunny) out.

I also really liked Tre moving off the ball vs Cuse and getting into the elbows to shoot. He need to shoot a little better, so running plays for him like that is welcome.

Also, I loved Coach K putting Tre on Tyus Battle. Between that, Tre at the hole in the zone, AOC getting big minutes and pushing the right Javin/Bolden buttons at the right time.....my goodness, we are blessed to have Coach K. Enjoy it.

[Jeffrey]

The one surprise is Jack White’s minutes have declined. He has not topped 20 minutes since the January 22nd game vs. Pitt.


Given Jack's play, since January 22nd, is that truly surprising? History repeats and the rotation was going to tighten.

Where's kAzE and Troublemaker? I doubt they approve of less minutes.

No comments the first time. Now, Jack has a DNP. Any comments about Jack's minutes?

[Utley]

This is really well done. Can I add to the movie list - with a little artistic license - The Fabulous Baker Boy


Fun Phase thread idea. Sadly, I think we have to add a few to the mix now:

The Departed: With Zion's injury, he's now out. Will he come back in this Phase? Ugh, this sucks.
Titanic: Does Zion's absence sink our chances of an ACC regular season title? An ACC title? Or worse? We went from being in the driver's seat to hoping to claw our way to a rematch still in position to win it. These next two games are going to be dogfights for us.
A Beautiful Mind: With Zion out, it will be interesting to see what Coach K comes up with to get this team going. He figured it out when Boozer went down. He figured it out when Tre Jones went down. We didn't fully recover from some other injuries though. And this year's team is lighter on talent depth and experience than Coach K is used to when we have had to overcome such injuries.
Gladiator: I would expect RJ Barrett to play 40 minutes a game from now until Zion returns. Hopefully he's up to carrying the team better than he was early in the season. We're going to need him to play like the #1 recruit in the country now.
Platoon: This season, we've basically only played Bolden and DeLaurier in a platoon. With Zion out, will we see more of the two together? Or will we go smaller with White at PF and maintain the C platoon?
Ordinary People: We haven't had to rely on our bench much this year. Well, now we may need them to step up. Can White regain his confidence/touch from 3? Whither O'Connell's silky offensive skill set? Can Goldwire maintain his frenetic defensive energy consistently, while also not being a complete liability on offense? Can DeLaurier and Bolden make themselves consistent presences?

[brevity]

Fun Phase thread idea. Sadly, I think we have to add a few to the mix now:

The Departed: With Zion's injury, he's now out. Will he come back in this Phase? Ugh, this sucks.
Titanic: Does Zion's absence sink our chances of an ACC regular season title? An ACC title? Or worse? We went from being in the driver's seat to hoping to claw our way to a rematch still in position to win it. These next two games are going to be dogfights for us.
A Beautiful Mind: With Zion out, it will be interesting to see what Coach K comes up with to get this team going. He figured it out when Boozer went down. He figured it out when Tre Jones went down. We didn't fully recover from some other injuries though. And this year's team is lighter on talent depth and experience than Coach K is used to when we have had to overcome such injuries.
Gladiator: I would expect RJ Barrett to play 40 minutes a game from now until Zion returns. Hopefully he's up to carrying the team better than he was early in the season. We're going to need him to play like the #1 recruit in the country now.
Platoon: This season, we've basically only played Bolden and DeLaurier in a platoon. With Zion out, will we see more of the two together? Or will we go smaller with White at PF and maintain the C platoon?
Ordinary People: We haven't had to rely on our bench much this year. Well, now we may need them to step up. Can White regain his confidence/touch from 3? Whither O'Connell's silky offensive skill set? Can Goldwire maintain his frenetic defensive energy consistently, while also not being a complete liability on offense? Can DeLaurier and Bolden make themselves consistent presences?

Let's get recent.

Cold War: One of the truly underrated aspects of Coach K's success is that he did it against the perils of winter weather in Durham. There are many harsher places, but nothing compares to the near-urinary drizzle that afflicts Duke's campus for months at a time, making it a constant breeding ground for colds and related afflictions that take up long-term residence. Can the Duke team work its way into better respiratory health?

First Man: I feel like there is something here, but I can't put my finger on it. Maybe if Duke had a guy with a #1 jersey that will probably go first in the NBA Draft...

Green Book: Will Nassir Little's jealousy of the press Duke receives spur him to improve his play in Round 2, or will Duke have a plan for him now that he invites the attention?

Vice: Zion or no Zion, will Duke continue to resort to an old habit of not feeding the post, in favor of short possessions where we just launch the first open three?

Free Solo: In the past two games, Duke is not necessarily getting the calls. How do we get back to the charity stripe, and will we continue our recent trend of converting well above our season average?

The Favourite: How will Duke handle the relax-but-not-really-relax vibe of playing two unranked, bottom-tier ACC opponents (Miami and Wake) at home?

A Quiet Place: The regular season finale looms. What, or who, will Duke use early in the rematch to silence the Dean Dome?

Roma: Why does Buzz Williams' head look like a tomato?