MBB: Duke vs. unc (2/20, 9 p.m., ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[DavidBenAkiva]

Round 1 of at least 2 in the most famous rivalry in college basketball tips off on Wednesday night at 9:00 p.m. All eyes in the world of basketball will be focused on Cameron Indoor Stadium. There will be no NBA games that night. There will be no other Top 10 matchups in college ball. This is the game, possibly the biggest of the year.

Duke will find itself an almost unanimous #1 team in the nation in the polls while UNC has done about as expected as a Top 10 team featuring a mix of seniors, freshmen, and relatively unremarkable sophomores and juniors. North Carolina, as has been the case under Roy Williams in his tenure in Chapel Hill, loves to play an up-tempo game and has his players crash the glass. The Tar Heels are playing the 4th fastest tempo among college teams so far this year. UNC is good, although not historically so, on the offensive glass. They are a better defensive rebounding team this year.

Unlike UNC teams of recent vintage, this roster does not feature much in the way of an interior presence. Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks start the game in the frontcourt. Maye is particularly gifted as a defensive rebounder while Brooks is better on the offensive glass. Neither offer much in the way of rim protection, an area where UNC struggles overall this season.

Where UNC excels this year is on the 3-point line, where the team can space the floor with as many as 4 shooters at a time. Maye, Cam Johnson, Coby White, and Kenny Williams all can and do take a number of 3's. Johnson, in particular, has been scorching the nets this year to the tune of 47.9% shooting from behind the arc. Maye and Williams are capable shooters, although they have regressed relative to last season. White has been a pleasant surprise at point guard for the Tar Heels. He came out of high school as the all-time leading scorer in North Carolina history and has picked that up in college after a few slow games.

Off the bench are juniors Brandon Robinson, a 6'4" shooting guard that can score from deep, Seventh Woods, a 6'2" point guard that has had a disappointing college career, freshman 6'6" Nassir Little and 6'7" Leaky Black. The latter has been pretty good in limited minutes. The former has had a bit of rough go of it for a player that many projected to be the best on the team before the season started. Little sprained his ankle against Virginia on Monday but played 11 minutes against Wake Forest on Saturday. He looks like he will be playing on Wednesday against Duke, although it is not clear that he is 100% healthy at the moment.

This UNC team is prone to turnovers and mistakes at times. Although they are also prone to shooting lights out at times, too. It's a bit of a hit-and-miss squad. The matchups in this game are going to be very interesting. Duke has superior athleticism at almost every position. And the Blue Devils are killers in transition. Playing a fast-tempo game would seem to favor the home team. Does Roy have a wrinkle to his normal defense up his sleeve for this game against Duke?

Looking at the matchups, Duke will be favored when R.J. and Zion are going to the rim. If they can force Coby White into making a few too many mistakes, too, they will have a further advantage. Duke will have a big advantage at the rim on defense, where they can bring multiple defenders to block shots. UNC, on the other hand, has a clear advantage on the offensive glass and from behind the arc. If Duke can negate one of those two advantages, I think the home team takes the game. Duke is a very good defensive three-point shooting team, after all. This should be an incredibly hyped and fun game to watch. GTHC and Let's Go Duke!

[chris13]

Leaky Black has been out since January 29 when he suffered a high ankle sprain against GaTech. I would be surprised if he plays Wednesday. The one player on UNC's roster who can provide some rim protection, Sterling Manley, is also likely to be out. Finally Nassir Little missed most of the UVA game with a sprained ankle and the 2nd half against Wake although that seemed to be a precaution.

Agree that Coby White has been a pleasant surprise, and that along with Cam Johnson's shooting have really made the difference for UNC. Hard to imagine them beating Duke in Cameron. I can't imagine Roy is going to try and slow tempo.

[dukelifer]

Round 1 of at least 2 in the most famous rivalry in college basketball tips off on Wednesday night at 9:00 p.m. All eyes in the world of basketball will be focused on Cameron Indoor Stadium. There will be no NBA games that night. There will be no other Top 10 matchups in college ball. This is the game, possibly the biggest of the year.

Duke will find itself an almost unanimous #1 team in the nation in the polls while UNC has done about as expected as a Top 10 team featuring a mix of seniors, freshmen, and relatively unremarkable sophomores and juniors. North Carolina, as has been the case under Roy Williams in his tenure in Chapel Hill, loves to play an up-tempo game and has his players crash the glass. The Tar Heels are playing the 4th fastest tempo among college teams so far this year. UNC is good, although not historically so, on the offensive glass. They are a better defensive rebounding team this year.

Unlike UNC teams of recent vintage, this roster does not feature much in the way of an interior presence. Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks start the game in the frontcourt. Maye is particularly gifted as a defensive rebounder while Brooks is better on the offensive glass. Neither offer much in the way of rim protection, an area where UNC struggles overall this season.

Where UNC excels this year is on the 3-point line, where the team can space the floor with as many as 4 shooters at a time. Maye, Cam Johnson, Coby White, and Kenny Williams all can and do take a number of 3's. Johnson, in particular, has been scorching the nets this year to the tune of 47.9% shooting from behind the arc. Maye and Williams are capable shooters, although they have regressed relative to last season. White has been a pleasant surprise at point guard for the Tar Heels. He came out of high school as the all-time leading scorer in North Carolina history and has picked that up in college after a few slow games.

Off the bench are juniors Brandon Robinson, a 6'4" shooting guard that can score from deep, Seventh Woods, a 6'2" point guard that has had a disappointing college career, freshman 6'6" Nassir Little and 6'7" Leaky Black. The latter has been pretty good in limited minutes. The former has had a bit of rough go of it for a player that many projected to be the best on the team before the season started. Little sprained his ankle against Virginia on Monday but played 11 minutes against Wake Forest on Saturday. He looks like he will be playing on Wednesday against Duke, although it is not clear that he is 100% healthy at the moment.

This UNC team is prone to turnovers and mistakes at times. Although they are also prone to shooting lights out at times, too. It's a bit of a hit-and-miss squad. The matchups in this game are going to be very interesting. Duke has superior athleticism at almost every position. And the Blue Devils are killers in transition. Playing a fast-tempo game would seem to favor the home team. Does Roy have a wrinkle to his normal defense up his sleeve for this game against Duke?

Looking at the matchups, Duke will be favored when R.J. and Zion are going to the rim. If they can force Coby White into making a few too many mistakes, too, they will have a further advantage. Duke will have a big advantage at the rim on defense, where they can bring multiple defenders to block shots. UNC, on the other hand, has a clear advantage on the offensive glass and from behind the arc. If Duke can negate one of those two advantages, I think the home team takes the game. Duke is a very good defensive three-point shooting team, after all. This should be an incredibly hyped and fun game to watch. GTHC and Let's Go Duke!

This will be an interesting game for sure. UNC can shoot the ball- no question. They have a bunch of guys that can hit from deep with ease. White is a handful and will challenge the D and Jones. Duke wins this game if they can turn UNC over a lot and get out in transition for easy buckets. UNC will go fast and push the pace and test the transition D which has been just average for Duke. If Duke takes away the three as they did against State- UNC is pretty adept at getting the ball to cutters. So it will be a chess match. I think UNC is a tough matchup for Duke but they have shown themselves vulnerable to athletic teams. Duke will need to be intense and focused on D and attack on O. Duke will need Reddish to have one of his better games- particularly on D. Emotional rivalry games are always hard to predict - but this will be a close game decided at the end. I will be happy if Duke wins easily but I am not expecting it. I worry about foul trouble on Duke. UNC is deeper and has fairly interchangeable bench players. Any kind of win is welcome. The Duke team is hitting a bit of a wall so regardless of the outcome on Wed- the next two games will not be easy.

[NYBri]

This belongs in the status check, but...

9F!!!!!!!!

:cool:

[roywhite]

Cam vs Cam?

Cameron Johnson has some excellent shooting numbers -- 51.7% FG, 47.9% 3-pt, and 78.9% FT
He's been a difficult matchup for many teams, but our Cam has the length and defensive ability to neutralize Johnson IMO

Tre vs Coby White is another interesting matchup
Like most teams, the Heels will struggle to defend Zion, and that should be the difference in this game

Devils by 8 to 10 points

[mapei]

I think we're going to have to really step up our game - something we generally do in key contests - to win this one. I know that's an odd thing to say given our record and that the game is in Cameron, but I don't think we've played all that well lately, except for the closing 9 minutes against Louisville. We'll have to avoid foul trouble, defend the 3 well, and shoot the 3 much better than we did last night. UNC seems to be playing very well lately, notwithstanding their loss to Virginia.

[MChambers]

This belongs in the status check, but...

9F!!!!!!!!

:cool:

Belongs in every thread!

[MChambers]

Cam vs Cam?

Cameron Johnson has some excellent shooting numbers -- 51.7% FG, 47.9% 3-pt, and 78.9% FT
He's been a difficult matchup for many teams, but our Cam has the length and defensive ability to neutralize Johnson IMO

Tre vs Coby White is another interesting matchup
Like most teams, the Heels will struggle to defend Zion, and that should be the difference in this game

Devils by 8 to 10 points

UVa put Hunter on White in the second half and the length bothered White. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cam ended up on White.

[AGDukesky]

UNC seems to be playing very well lately, notwithstanding their loss to Virginia.

And needed a late 3 to send the game to OT at home against Miami the game before. For some reason people always seem to give UNC a pass. In its last 3 games, UNC was lucky to win at home against a middling Miami team in OT, lost at home to a UVA team coming off a loss to Duke at home by 10 two days before and down a starter, and clobbered the worst team in the conference with a dead man walking coach. How is UNC looking any better than Duke?!

[Devilwin]

The way I see it, if the defense shows up, we hit some threes, we win. If not, it could be close and ugly. We need not just Cam but everyone to stand tall for this one.:cool:

[robed deity]

This kinda reminds me of a few years ago, only reversed. Duke has the better team, but if UNC shoots it and Duke doesn't, they could steal one.

But if Tre is able to harass White into some turnovers, that could really make it tough on them.

[CDu]

First of the two UNC games. Win this one and we are in the driver’s seat for the ACC title. Glad it is at home, I think.

UNC does a lot of the things that Roy Williams teams do well: namely, run the floor and rebound on both ends. They play the 4th fastest tempo in D1, and are a top-25 rebounding team on both the offensive and defensive glass. That second stat is really impressive as they are not a big team. On offense, they are a fantastic 3pt shooting team, but they turn it over a fair amount and they don’t draw fouls. It is a bit abnormal for a UNC team to shoot so many threes and to not draw fouls, but that is kind of the team they have. On defense, they congest the lane and rebound well, but that is about it.

Centers: The nominal center is Garrison Brooks (6’9”, 230lb sophomore). Brooks is an athletic, energy player who does the little things. He is good in the pick-and-roll game and can finish at the rim. He can also knock down the occasional 15-footer. But he can’t dribble and is mainly a tertiary offensive option. Still, he plays with high energy and effort and has a knack for the annoyingly successful play despite limited skill. In theory, Brooks is backed up by Sterling Manley (6’11”, 235lb sophomore). But Manley has missed over a month with a knee injury. UNC doesn’t give info on return timetables, so no idea if he will play. But when he has played he has been ineffective. Well, maybe that isn’t fair. He has blocked shots and has rebounded at an elite rate. But his offensive contributions have been awful. Brandon Huffman (6’10”, 250lb sophomore) is the emergency big. But if Manley doesn’t go, the Heels will typically just go smaller when Brooks is out.

Forwards: Luke Maye (6’8”, 240lb senior) is the starter at forward. Maye is the kind of story one would love if he wasn’t a Heel. A lightly-recruited, undersized and under athletic big, he has put in a ton of work to maximize his play at the college level. He is a strong kid, an elite defensive rebounder. He is also a terrific shooter, though he has struggled a bit this year. He can’t dribble at all, though, and on a team light on playmakers his offensive limitations have been somewhat exposed. He is sort of like a bigger, less bouncy Jack White. Maye will be overmatched if asked to defend anyone but Bolden/White/DeLaurier. I would expect us to try to get him iso’d on a freshman when possible. Behind, and sometimes alongside Maye is Nassir Little (6’6”, 220lb freshman). Little was a top-5 recruit who has elite physical tools and plays a high-energy style. And he has been really productive for UNC... when Roy has let him play. He averages 20.9 points and 9.4 rebounds per 40 minutes, but gets just 18.5 mpg because he doesn’t fit Roy’s system on the wing and Roy doesn’t like to play a small ball PF much (Little would be a nightmare as a college 4). He doesn’t handle the ball well and doesn’t shoot well, but he is ferocious on straight-line drives and finishing at the rim. Little sprained his ankle against UVa and played sparingly against Wake, so it remains to be seen how effective he will be on Wednesday. He isn’t the most polished player, but he might be the only Heel capable of contending with Zion. So let’s hope Roy continues to misuse his star prospect.

Wings: Cam Johnson (6’9”, 210lb senior grad transfer from Pitt) is the star on the wing. Johnson is the rare grad transfer who (a) did so with TWO years of eligibility left and (b) got to do so within conference. So, kudos to UNC for pulling that off. Johnson’s game is the 3-ball. He is an ELITE perimeter shooter. Like the others mentioned, Johnson doesn’t dribble. So he relies on others to create looks for him. But when he gets a lot, it frequently goes in. On defense, though, Johnson can be a liability at times. The other starter on the wing is Kenny Williams (6’4”, 185lb senior). Williams is another lower-tier recruit turned good for UNC. He is a good athlete and willing defender, and a better shooter than his numbers would indicate. He also has a knack for hitting loooong, contested 3s late in the shot clock. Williams gets a fair amount of “pass it on the perimeter” assists as well. Once again, though, the limitation for him is that he doesn’t handle the ball well. The third man on the wings is technically Little, but Little plays more of a forward role. So the next up is Brandon Robinson (6’4”, 170lb junior). Robinson is a string bean with decent athleticism but whose primary value is, you guessed it, his outside shot. And, you probably also guessed, he can’t handle the ball. The other option will be either Rechon “Leaky” Black (6’7”, 185lb freshman) or Andrew Platek (6’3”, 200lb sophomore). Black has missed several games with an ankle injury, and there has been no update on his availability. So who knows? If he plays, Black is a long, athletic shooting wing who can harass the passing lanes. Sort of a very poor man’s Reddish, if you will. If Black sits, Platek might fill in sparingly. And that would be a big edge to Duke, because Platek is not skilled or athletic enough to play at the ACC level.

Guards: Coby White (6’5”, 185lb freshman) is the guy that carries this UNC team. He is one of only two capable ballhandlers, and is also their best scorer. White isn’t really a PG, but can do it in a pinch. He is a terrific shooter and crafty ballhandler/driver. He is a threat to score from anywhere, and will need to be the focal point of our game plan. Make him struggle and force it into the hands of others, and good things can happen for us. The less White has the ball, the better. The only other guy who can dribble for UNC is Seventh Woods (6’2”, 185lb junior). Woods was an elite prospect as a freshman in high school, leading to an early UNC commit. But his game plateaued young, and he just has never put it together in college. Woods is a terrific athlete who just doesn’t have the b-ball IQ to make it work at his size. He can handle the ball okay, and can deliver highlight-reel dunks. But he is a turnover machine and a minimal offensive weapon. He does generate assists, but he feels kind of like an empty calorie guy out there. Still, White serves his role as the backup point whenever White needs a break.

We are way more athletic than UNC at nearly every spot. But UNC is more experienced and a far better shooting team. If they dominate the glass (which they can do) and/or hit their 3s, we can be in trouble. If we can limit their transition buckets, force guys other than White to make plays, and keep them from killing us on the boards, we should fare well. But it won’t be easy.

[DukieInKansas]

Hopefully, all of the former players that made it to the game yesterday were able to share valuable insight about the rivalry. The Brotherhood must stand strong.

[CarmenWallaceWade]

I seem to remember last year in one of these matchups (I believe the acc tourney) where unc stacked the lane to stop Bagley, Carter and co. It forced us to shoot threes which we did not do well and ultimately lost. Given how poor our 3 pt shooting is this year I would not be surprised to see a similar game plan from them.

[Kedsy]

UNC, on the other hand, has a clear advantage on the offensive glass and from behind the arc.

For what it's worth, UNC is #26 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Duke is #6.


UNC will go fast and push the pace and test the transition D which has been just average for Duke.

Duke has allowed two (2) or fewer fast break points (not baskets, points) in three of our last four games.

[SavDukeGrad]

Great scouting report as always, CDu! The potential Zion vs Little matchup should be really interesting!

I have ventured over to IC several times this season. Although I find almost all of their comments completely delusional, I was curious about 2 things: how they viewed Roy’ s usage of Little and how incensed they were about the Duke/Zion hype this year.

At the very beginning of the season, before they realized the full “Zion effect” on college b-ball this year, they were adamant that Little was a better player and would own Zion head to head. Their reasoning was that Little had always outplayed him in the past, especially in the McDonalds AA game. They dismissed Roy’s usage of Little - Little came to Carolina because he wanted to be a part of some thing bigger than himself, he was a team player and didn’t mind coming off the bench, he was there to learn under Roy not audition for the NBA, he wasn’t selfish, the Carolina way... (pardon me if I go throw up now)

Now that the season has unfolded, I don’t want to even repeat most of their delusional comments. But there are 2 major themes: Roy has whiffed on all of these top recruits because he refuses to pay them, and they are so happy that that their school is morally superior to all others, especially Duke. Which I find really fascinatingly delusional, since Little was the one player that was mentioned in the FBI report, and likely only fell in their lap because of it.

All of this is to say: I hope more than ever we really take it to them Wednesday night. And Zion dominates Little and their entire team. And all of our guys have great games and there is no doubt who is the better team. Go Duke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Great scouting report as always, CDu! The potential Zion vs Little matchup should be really interesting!

I have ventured over to IC several times this season. Although I find almost all of their comments completely delusional, I was curious about 2 things: how they viewed Roy’ s usage of Little and how incensed they were about the Duke/Zion hype this year.

At the very beginning of the season, before they realized the full “Zion effect” on college b-ball this year, they were adamant that Little was a better player and would own Zion head to head. Their reasoning was that Little had always outplayed him in the past, especially in the McDonalds AA game. They dismissed Roy’s usage of Little - Little came to Carolina because he wanted to be a part of some thing bigger than himself, he was a team player and didn’t mind coming off the bench, he was there to learn under Roy not audition for the NBA, he wasn’t selfish, the Carolina way... (pardon me if I go throw up now)

Now that the season has unfolded, I don’t want to even repeat most of their delusional comments. But there are 2 major themes: Roy has whiffed on all of these top recruits because he refuses to pay them, and they are so happy that that their school is morally superior to all others, especially Duke. Which I find really fascinatingly delusional, since Little was the one player that was mentioned in the FBI report, and likely only fell in their lap because of it.

All of this is to say: I hope more than ever we really take it to them Wednesday night. And Zion dominates Little and their entire team. And all of our guys have great games and there is no doubt who is the better team. Go Duke!

Thanks for the update....couple questions:

Are they still on the "Duke paid Zion" business?
Do any of them think Little is better than Zion?

[Kedsy]

I think we're going to have to really step up our game - something we generally do in key contests - to win this one. I know that's an odd thing to say given our record and that the game is in Cameron, but I don't think we've played all that well lately, except for the closing 9 minutes against Louisville. We'll have to avoid foul trouble, defend the 3 well, and shoot the 3 much better than we did last night. UNC seems to be playing very well lately, notwithstanding their loss to Virginia.

I know someone else already addressed this, but here are each team's last three games (what constitutes "lately" is perhaps subjective, but three games seems about right to me; rankings are from KenPom):

Duke:
10-point road win over #2 Virginia;
2-point road win over #14 Louisville;
16-point home win over #35 NC State.

UNC:
OT home win over #71 Miami;
8-point home loss to #2 Virginia;
38-point road win over #187 Wake Forest.

Impossible for me to look at the above and not say Duke is playing way better than UNC lately.

[SavDukeGrad]

Thanks for the update...couple questions:

Are they still on the "Duke paid Zion" business?
Do any of them think Little is better than Zion?

As of my last visit:

1. Yes, more than ever. There seems to be a direct correlation - the better he plays, the more convinced they are that this definitely happened.

2. That narrative has now changed, since Little needs at least one more year at Carolina before he will be ready for the NBA. One of their posters hilariously (and truthfully) said something like “now is the time of year we start throwing all of our own players under the bus, hoping they will come back for another year”! You just can’t make this stuff up!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

As of my last visit:

1. Yes, more than ever. There seems to be a direct correlation - the better he plays, the more convinced they are that this definitely happened.

2. That narrative has now changed, since Little needs at least one more year at Carolina before he will be ready for the NBA. One of their posters hilariously (and truthfully) said something like “now is the time of year we start throwing all of our own players under the bus, hoping they will come back for another year”! You just can’t make this stuff up!

Amazing. I've always loathed Carolina fan nation much more than the players/coaches over there....by far. This is why. Only idiotic fans can be obsessed over item #1. I assure you Roy nor any of the players have given that stupid notion a second thought.

As a note, my dad was a physician, a devout Christian, a UNC Med School grad, and a man of honor.......unless the Cheats were on TV. Then he lost it all for two hours. Astounding what being a Cheats fan does to a person.

[DavidBenAkiva]

For what it's worth, UNC is #26 in the country in offensive rebounding percentage. Duke is #6.

I should clarify that UNC is one of the better teams on the offensive glass while Duke is not among the top 200 teams in defensive rebounding rate. UNC has an advantage relative to Duke's weakness.

Duke is the better offensive rebounding team this year, but UNC is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation as well. When considering the two, UNC has a clear advantage on one end of the court.

Of course, Duke is one of the poorer defensive rebounding teams in large part because the team is so aggressive and successful at blocking shots. The ability to protect the rim is a clear advantage for Duke in this game.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Leaky Black has been out since January 29 when he suffered a high ankle sprain against GaTech. I would be surprised if he plays Wednesday. The one player on UNC's roster who can provide some rim protection, Sterling Manley, is also likely to be out. Finally Nassir Little missed most of the UVA game with a sprained ankle and the 2nd half against Wake although that seemed to be a precaution.

Agree that Coby White has been a pleasant surprise, and that along with Cam Johnson's shooting have really made the difference for UNC. Hard to imagine them beating Duke in Cameron. I can't imagine Roy is going to try and slow tempo.

I didn't realize Leaky Black had missed time recently. UNC will still play 9-10 guys in this game, but the dropoff towards the end of the bench will be huge. Instead of running out Black and Manely, we'll see Huffman and Platek. Those are big advantages for Duke.

[SavDukeGrad]

I didn't realize Leaky Black had missed time recently. UNC will still play 9-10 guys in this game, but the dropoff towards the end of the bench will be huge. Instead of running out Black and Manely, we'll see Huffman and Platek. Those are big advantages for Duke.

I wonder if we really will see Huffman and Platek? It seems like Roy has sometimes shortened his rotation against Duke (and probably other stronger teams as well). I remember there was a game in Cameron recently (maybe 2017?) where he very obviously didn’t put in Joel James, even though James was solidly in their rotation that year. We shall see, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shorten his rotation.

[DavidBenAkiva]

On offense, they are a fantastic 3pt shooting team, but they turn it over a fair amount and they don’t draw fouls.

Get ready to hear the Tar Heel faithful b*tch and moan about the free throw disparity!

Thanks for brining up this point, CDu. I hadn't noticed that about UNC. Their lack of interior presence means that they do not get to the free throw line all that often. If you look at Free Throw Rate (FTR, or free throw attempts per field goal attempts), none of the UNC regulars are above 40%. Most fall within 30-39 while Cam Johnson and Kenny Williams are below the 30% mark. They are a team of jump shooters.

By comparison, Zion is at 52.0 FTR, Marques is at 64.0 and Javin is at an amazingly high 76.2. Javin doesn't really take many field goals, so I suppose that isn't surprising after all. But still, the Duke bigs are getting to the line a lot and UNC doesn't have the rim protection to prevent them from going inside.

Luke Maye has taken the most free throws on the season for UNC this year, attempting 97. For Duke, Zion leads the way with 166 while R.J. has attempted 148. While UNC will most likely have an advantage in made 3's in the game, Duke's free throw disparity - if they can make their shots at a decent rate - could help overcome the shooting advantage.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I wonder if we really will see Huffman and Platek? It seems like Roy has sometimes shortened his rotation against Duke (and probably other stronger teams as well). I remember there was a game in Cameron recently (maybe 2017?) where he very obviously didn’t put in Joel James, even though James was solidly in their rotation that year. We shall see, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shorten his rotation.

It's possible that Roy tightens his rotation in this game. On the other hand, Duke puts a lot of pressure on the opposing team by driving to the lane frequently. I could easily see Zion getting Brooks and even Maye into foul trouble. Roy may be forced to go deeper into his bench than he would prefer on Wednesday with Black and Manley potentially out.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Platek in the game......sounds like a great opportunity for AOC to get some confidence building minutes....:)

[uh_no]

It's possible that Roy tightens his rotation in this game.

lol. next you'll suggest he call timeouts or check the scoreboard in the first half.

[SavDukeGrad]

Get ready to hear the Tar Heel faithful b*tch and moan about the free throw disparity!


I can’t wait! It will give them one more thing to complain about, in addition to the fact that all of our players are paid! :rolleyes:

[DukieInBrasil]

UVa put Hunter on White in the second half and the length bothered White. I wouldn’t be surprised if Cam ended up on White.

If K does try to use matchups instead of switch-everything, and Cam defends White, that would probably put RJ on Cam Johnson, Zion vs Maye, Tre vs K Williams and Bolden vs the uNC Center. I like all of those matchups too.

When it comes to the bench though, I guess i'd give uNC the advantage on offense, in that they have several guys who can score in a variety of ways (as detailed by CDu), whereas Duke's bench players just don't score that much, and really only score in one way (per player): J-White- dunks only, at least lately, Javin, ditto; J-Gold, doesn't really score; AOC- is actually athletic enough to be a good dunker, but doesn't handle the ball well enough to create those for himself, instead relying on put-back dunks, or steals for dunks, and he can shoot the 3 better than anyone else on the team %-wise even though it seems like it's been a while since he made one, in fact he hasn't made one since Notre Dame, in January. Duke's bench gets a huge edge on the defensive side though, as J-White and Javin are defensive specialists, as is J-Gold who just doesn't get many minutes (though we will all love him forever b/c of the UL win!). AOC is generally a defensive liability, but can get some steals and rebounds.

I'm hoping that the Duke starters win their individual matchups handily, and that Duke's bench clamps down defensively when they are in the game.

[Kedsy]

AOC- is actually athletic enough to be a good dunker, but doesn't handle the ball well enough to create those for himself, instead relying on put-back dunks, or steals for dunks

Alex has converted exactly one dunk this season.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Alex has converted exactly one dunk this season.

...and it was a pretty nice one!

[awhom111]

For likely the last time ever, we have a Raycom simulcast of this regular season game.

Channels carrying the ACC Network feed:
http://theacc.com/sports/2019/1/4/MBB_acc-raycom-UNC-DU-2-20-2019.aspx

The online version of the feed, which should be unrestricted and freely available, will be here:
http://theacc.com/watch/?id=160862

[HereBeforeCoachK]

For likely the last time ever, we have a Raycom simulcast of this regular season game.

Channels carrying the ACC Network feed:
http://theacc.com/sports/2019/1/4/MBB_acc-raycom-UNC-DU-2-20-2019.aspx

The online version of the feed, which should be unrestricted and freely available, will be here:
http://theacc.com/watch/?id=160862

Is Raycom a Vitale free zone?

[duke2x]

Is Raycom a Vitale free zone?

Yes. Raycom is either Gminski (my guess) or Dan Bonner. ESPN will put Bilas there over Vitale.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Yes. Raycom is either Gminski (my guess) or Dan Bonner. ESPN will put Bilas there over Vitale.

Gminski is good, and an honest broker without bending over backwards to prove he's not pro Duke like Bilas/J Will do. Gminski's analysis is also better than Bonners. And, some may say this is a negative, but G-Man does not seem to hate Carolina. Rivalry a little different when he played...after Heyman...before Laettner...and based on some on air comments just this weekend, G-Man and Dean's Myth had a good relationship after both retired.

As for ESPN, I can't imagine Vitale not doing a Duke Carolina game...even if they have both he and Bilas.

[Wahoo2000]

Intrigued by this game. Things I'll be watching:

Will UNC try to pack it in defensively to limit Duke penetration and Zion post-ups? Roy usually favors pressuring a little bit on the perimeter and semi-denying passes around the arc to be disruptive in general, but vs Duke they'd definitely be better served to pack the interior a little more and/or play some zone.

If UNC really does pack it in, how does Duke shoot on good looks from 3? If Duke is hitting over 40% from 3, it's over. If they struggle mightily (and UNC is effectively packing the paint), it's a coin-flip.

Can UNC control the glass in a big way? Duke is an excellent offensive rebounding team, but are pretty bad a locking down the defensive glass. UNC is very good on both ends. Can UNC keep Zion and Dukes other players from generating second chance points, while "cleaning up" in the same way on the other end?

Will the likely VERY high possession contest (between 2 teams who play high tempo) make it more likely that Duke encounters foul trouble issues? Higher possessions means more chances for fouls. Aside from how they shoot jumpers and rebound, Duke's foul situation is probably the most important factor. Duke definitely has the edge at the top of the rosters, but if teams are forced to go to the bench, UNC probably has the edge in talent after the top 2-3 guys. However, let's say Maye and Zion both get in foul trouble. Suddenly its a much closer talent pool both teams are working with.

I really think Duke "learned its lesson" at Louisville in that IF they show up and are less than totally engaged, things can go the wrong way in a hurry. In a home game vs your biggest rival with the chance to all but eliminate them as a threat to the conference regular season crown? I think Duke will come out HIGHLY motivated. I think short of disastrous shooting or crazy foul trouble, Duke rolls by 10+. I would love to be wrong as I'm still hoping against hope that we (UVA) can catch you for the regular season title, but I'd acknowledge that's a pretty slim possibility at this point.

Here's to a highly entertaining, and well played game by both sides.

[rocketeli]

A key for Duke will be keeping Luke May out of foul trouble.

[CDu]

I should clarify that UNC is one of the better teams on the offensive glass while Duke is not among the top 200 teams in defensive rebounding rate. UNC has an advantage relative to Duke's weakness.

Duke is the better offensive rebounding team this year, but UNC is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation as well. When considering the two, UNC has a clear advantage on one end of the court.

Of course, Duke is one of the poorer defensive rebounding teams in large part because the team is so aggressive and successful at blocking shots. The ability to protect the rim is a clear advantage for Duke in this game.

Yeah, I agree. Offensive rebounding seems to be a clear advantage for UNC given that they are great at it and we are bad at defensive rebounding, whereas we are great at offensive rebounding but they are great at defensive rebounding. It remains to be seen how it will play out, but I'd expect them to have the edge in offensive rebounding despite our extra prowess at it.

But hopefully we'll block a lot of shots and get a lot of steals and it won't matter too much if UNC wins the glass as they theoretically should.

[MChambers]

Yeah, I agree. Offensive rebounding seems to be a clear advantage for UNC given that they are great at it and we are bad at defensive rebounding, whereas we are great at offensive rebounding but they are great at defensive rebounding. It remains to be seen how it will play out, but I'd expect them to have the edge in offensive rebounding despite our extra prowess at it.

But hopefully we'll block a lot of shots and get a lot of steals and it won't matter too much if UNC wins the glass as they theoretically should.

Let”s hope that to the extent UNC gets shots off there are lots of offensive rebound opportunities.

[fisheyes]

Gminski is good, and an honest broker without bending over backwards to prove he's not pro Duke like Bilas/J Will do. Gminski's analysis is also better than Bonners. And, some may say this is a negative, but G-Man does not seem to hate Carolina. Rivalry a little different when he played...after Heyman...before Laettner...and based on some on air comments just this weekend, G-Man and Dean's Myth had a good relationship after both retired.

Having been at Duke during that era, I (and many others I am sure) beg to differ! I like Mike...Gman that is!

9F!!!

Go Duke!!!

[NSDukeFan]

I wonder if we really will see Huffman and Platek? It seems like Roy has sometimes shortened his rotation against Duke (and probably other stronger teams as well). I remember there was a game in Cameron recently (maybe 2017?) where he very obviously didn’t put in Joel James, even though James was solidly in their rotation that year. We shall see, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shorten his rotation.
I believe All-Americans Joel James and Nate Britt were always involved in the games with Duke. 😀

Gminski is good, and an honest broker without bending over backwards to prove he's not pro Duke like Bilas/J Will do. Gminski's analysis is also better than Bonners. And, some may say this is a negative, but G-Man does not seem to hate Carolina. Rivalry a little different when he played...after Heyman...before Laettner...and based on some on air comments just this weekend, G-Man and Dean's Myth had a good relationship after both retired.




Having been at Duke during that era, I (and many others I am sure) beg to differ! I like Mike...Gman that is!

9F!!!

Go Duke!!!

I believe that Carolina was still a legitimate, fully accredited university that may have valued education at that point?

[Kedsy]

Will the likely VERY high possession contest (between 2 teams who play high tempo) make it more likely that Duke encounters foul trouble issues? Higher possessions means more chances for fouls. Aside from how they shoot jumpers and rebound, Duke's foul situation is probably the most important factor.

Duke's opposing Free throw rate (measuring our ability to keep opponents off the line) is 5th best in the country. UNC's free throw rate (measuring how often they get to the line) is tied for 234th. In other words, we're great at not fouling too much and they're not so good at drawing fouls. So if this is the most important issue, Duke comes in to the game with an advantage.

[Kjeffrey]

As of my last visit:

1. Yes, more than ever. There seems to be a direct correlation - the better he plays, the more convinced they are that this definitely happened.

2. That narrative has now changed, since Little needs at least one more year at Carolina before he will be ready for the NBA. One of their posters hilariously (and truthfully) said something like “now is the time of year we start throwing all of our own players under the bus, hoping they will come back for another year”! You just can’t make this stuff up!

A few fans stated that Huffman would be able to stop Zion. It was hard for me to believe they were being serious but I really think they were. 😭

[duke4ever19]

A key for Duke will be keeping Luke May out of foul trouble.

Nice one! Over at IC the the narrative is that Luke Maye tends to struggle/disappear whenever he's matched up against a player who has superior size. I've not gone through the box scores to see if it's a good take or not, but Maye will definitely be playing against size on Wednesday and hopefully that leads to a quiet game from him.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Nice one! Over at IC the the narrative is that Luke Maye tends to struggle/disappear whenever he's matched up against a player who has superior size. I've not gone through the box scores to see if it's a good take or not, but Maye will definitely be playing against size on Wednesday and hopefully that leads to a quiet game from him.

If Zion can do to DeAndre Hunter what he did, imagine what he can do to Luke....

[CoachJ10]

The Tarholes arent the best ballhandling team...I wonder if we will see more full court pressure this game.

[DavidBenAkiva]

The Tar Heels arent the best ballhandling team...I wonder if we will see more full court pressure this game.

It's possible. NC State uses the press and was able to generate a number of turnovers against UNC in both games they played. The Wolfpack did a better job of this in the first matchup in Raleigh.

More likely, I think Duke's length is going to be a real bother for UNC. One thing that Duke did extremely well against Virginia this year is cut off the backdoor passes. That has been an issue for recent Duke teams. Cam Reddish, in particular, excels at this. Javin and Zion are also well above average at this. The Duke defense is able to recover due to its athleticism and length. I think we'll see a number of plays where the Blue Devils snag an attempted pass to a Tar Heel cutting to the lane.

[killerleft]

Gminski is good, and an honest broker without bending over backwards to prove he's not pro Duke like Bilas/J Will do. Gminski's analysis is also better than Bonners. And, some may say this is a negative, but G-Man does not seem to hate Carolina. Rivalry a little different when he played...after Heyman...before Laettner...and based on some on air comments just this weekend, G-Man and Dean's Myth had a good relationship after both retired.

As for ESPN, I can't imagine Vitale not doing a Duke Carolina game...even if they have both he and Bilas.

Sorry, I do not remember this strange time when the Duke-unc rivalry was 'a little different'. Please explain this groovy era to me. Did I forget to sing kumbayah with Chapaheeyans and cozy up to the Four Corners bar on Franklin Street? Did Gene Banks hit that overtime-causing jumper and then gesture toward Dean that he was dreadfully sorry? It seems that I was very out of touch with the mainstream of Blue Devil fandom at that time... unless you were.:rolleyes:

Those who were too young or unborn may be forgiven, although I'm not really sure about that. Please don't invent a time that never was.
GTHC, GTH!!!!!!!

[Furniture]

Last years thread was called ‘MBB: Duke vs. cheating pond scum’.......

[uh_no]

Last years thread was called ‘MBB: Duke vs. cheating pond scum’....

sounds to me like this year's thread is mistitled.....

[robed deity]

So I'm flipping around and apparently ESPN U is showing Duke UNC games. My guide says Duke at UNC '01 (nice!), then I turn and it's UNC at Duke '01 (ugh). Not totally sure how that UNC team beat that Duke team in Cameron.

[MrPoon]

MrPoon is flying in Wed to see the game and I’ve never seen Duke lose a game in person. So mark it down a W.
Xs and Os don’t matter after that statistical analysis. :rolleyes:

[Eakane]

Wake, having an awful year, clearly mailed it in. UNC also has losses against a middling Texas team, as well as Kentucky, Michigan UVa. and Louisvlle (may this list grow and grow).

The law of transitivity will surely be tested: Duke beat Kentucky, Kentucky beat North Carolina, North Carolina beat Gonzaga, and Gonzaga beat Duke.

With both teams looking to go up-tempo, this could be a fun one, as they both may reach 90+ points.


And needed a late 3 to send the game to OT at home against Miami the game before. For some reason people always seem to give UNC a pass. In its last 3 games, UNC was lucky to win at home against a middling Miami team in OT, lost at home to a UVA team coming off a loss to Duke at home by 10 two days before and down a starter, and clobbered the worst team in the conference with a dead man walking coach. How is UNC looking any better than Duke?!

[BigWayne]

sounds to me like this year's thread is mistitled....

I was wondering why we were playing the University of Northern Colorado.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

So I'm flipping around and apparently ESPN U is showing Duke UNC games. My guide says Duke at UNC '01 (nice!), then I turn and it's UNC at Duke '01 (ugh). Not totally sure how that UNC team beat that Duke team in Cameron.

There were a number of games in there where both teams were really good, but Duke was better, yet the Cheats seemed to have Duke's number. 1998 comes to mind. The Cheats won easily in Chapel Hill, and led virtually the entire game in Cameron til Duke squeaked out a 77-75 win. It didn't make sense. We were trailing in those two games probably 78 of the 80 minutes.......

[Devilwin]

'92 at Duke on now.

[rocketeli]

Sorry, I do not remember this strange time when the Duke-unc rivalry was 'a little different'. Please explain this groovy era to me. Did I forget to sing kumbayah with Chapaheeyans and cozy up to the Four Corners bar on Franklin Street? Did Gene Banks hit that overtime-causing jumper and then gesture toward Dean that he was dreadfully sorry? It seems that I was very out of touch with the mainstream of Blue Devil fandom at that time... unless you were.:rolleyes:

Those who were too young or unborn may be forgiven, although I'm not really sure about that. Please don't invent a time that never was.
GTHC, GTH!!!!!!!

There hasn't been a time since I've followed Duke basketball (late 1960s) that the rivalry wasn't intensive, at least on Duke's end. In the early/mid seventies, when NCSU had David Thompson, many UNC fans shamefully transferred their main hate over to State.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Sorry, I do not remember this strange time when the Duke-unc rivalry was 'a little different'. Please explain this groovy era to me. Did I forget to sing kumbayah with Chapaheeyans and cozy up to the Four Corners bar on Franklin Street? Did Gene Banks hit that overtime-causing jumper and then gesture toward Dean that he was dreadfully sorry? It seems that I was very out of touch with the mainstream of Blue Devil fandom at that time... unless you were.:rolleyes:

Those who were too young or unborn may be forgiven, although I'm not really sure about that. Please don't invent a time that never was.
GTHC, GTH!!!!!!!

Well of course you got absurd there and made straw arguments I never said...not even close. No one said anything about kumbaya and no intensity. SHEESH. Shots fired. Got it. So I felt compelled to fire back. You didn't merely disagree with me, you mocked me. Maybe it's how we were raised differently. Game on.

I grew up in a household split between Duke and UNC. My parents were part of an 8 person group who went to every single ACC Tournament for the first 30 or 35 years...from tournament number 1, up until 1982, when my mom missed due to a broken leg (and I took her place.) This group of 8 was spearheaded by an Iron Duke...and I don't mean a fund raiser, I mean one of the real "Iron Dukes" from the FB team that was undefeated, untied and un-scored upon until the last few seconds of The Rose Bowl. That group of 8 had Duke, NC and UVa fans. They didn't hate each other's team. That former Iron Duke player did not hate Carolina the way the hate is today. He died in the 80s, and I think he would cringe at today.

The different time was the Heyman era, for a number of reasons, but perhaps this Iron Duke and my parents were lying to me about all of that.

I remember going to the event known as "The Duke State Doubleheaders" around Christmas time in Raleigh...the fans pulled for each other, and the format was a switching of opponents and so Duke and State never played each other directly in this event. (this is not Carolina directly, but just more proof there was indeed a different time.).

I remember going to Reynolds Coliseum when Dean had the Olympic Team Tryouts, and loud cheers of A-C-C rang out... Now it's the SEC that has that cheer, as they don't hate Bama football or UK basketball the way Duke is now hated in the ACC. So the times are different now...very different.

Of course, maybe you can tell Quinn Cook he was a fool for laughing and kidding with Roy during the 2015 game, after the Dean moment at midcourt. Maybe that didn't happen. Maybe it was all made up. Maybe Gminski is an idiot for having a relationship with Dean's Myth. Maybe you should tell him.

Return fire made.

[NSDukeFan]

Well of course you got absurd there and made straw arguments I never said...not even close. No one said anything about kumbaya and no intensity. SHEESH. Shots fired. Got it. So I felt compelled to fire back. You didn't merely disagree with me, you mocked me. Maybe it's how we were raised differently. Game on.

I grew up in a household split between Duke and UNC. My parents were part of an 8 person group who went to every single ACC Tournament for the first 30 or 35 years...from tournament number 1, up until 1982, when my mom missed due to a broken leg (and I took her place.) This group of 8 was spearheaded by an Iron Duke...and I don't mean a fund raiser, I mean one of the real "Iron Dukes" from the FB team that was undefeated, untied and un-scored upon until the last few seconds of The Rose Bowl. That group of 8 had Duke, NC and UVa fans. They didn't hate each other's team. That former Iron Duke player did not hate Carolina the way the hate is today. He died in the 80s, and I think he would cringe at today.

The different time was the Heyman era, for a number of reasons, but perhaps this Iron Duke and my parents were lying to me about all of that.

I remember going to the event known as "The Duke State Doubleheaders" around Christmas time in Raleigh...the fans pulled for each other, and the format was a switching of opponents and so Duke and State never played each other directly in this event. (this is not Carolina directly, but just more proof there was indeed a different time.).

I remember going to Reynolds Coliseum when Dean had the Olympic Team Tryouts, and loud cheers of A-C-C rang out... Now it's the SEC that has that cheer, as they don't hate Bama football or UK basketball the way Duke is now hated in the ACC. So the times are different now...very different.

Of course, maybe you can tell Quinn Cook he was a fool for laughing and kidding with Roy during the 2015 game, after the Dean moment at midcourt. Maybe that didn't happen. Maybe it was all made up. Maybe Gminski is an idiot for having a relationship with Dean's Myth. Maybe you should tell him.

Return fire made.

I haven’t been on this board for as long as a lot of people, but I have been here for over 10 years. My understanding is the intention is for us to be having a conversation at a bar. If someone disagrees with your comment or thinks it absurd, they will point it out, usually in a lighthearted manner and sometimes with sarcasm. You can get offended and try to win the internet if you want but I don’t think it’s a competition where you need to always beat the other poster. My two cents that can be ignored if you want.

[sagegrouse]

Sorry, I do not remember this strange time when the Duke-unc rivalry was 'a little different'. Please explain this groovy era to me. Did I forget to sing kumbayah with Chapaheeyans and cozy up to the Four Corners bar on Franklin Street? Did Gene Banks hit that overtime-causing jumper and then gesture toward Dean that he was dreadfully sorry? It seems that I was very out of touch with the mainstream of Blue Devil fandom at that time... unless you were.:rolleyes:

Those who were too young or unborn may be forgiven, although I'm not really sure about that. Please don't invent a time that never was.
GTHC, GTH!!!!!!!

I dunno, Killer Left. In my era, it appears the Duke and UNC players often hated each other (think Art Heyman and Larry Brown), while the fans got along OK. There were UNC fans at the Indoor Stadium for Carolina-Duke games. Moreover, back in the day, football was far more important than hoops.

Now, I would argue, the players know each other and the relationships are decent, almost collegial. The best players on both teams have known each other from camps and AAU teams since they were 14. Aren't there still pick-up games in the summer involving players from both teams? The best ones also know they might be team-mates in the NBA -- and making a ton of money. The fans -- not so much. Maybe it's the apparent domination of the internet by the worst five percent (0.5 percent?) that fills the ether with bilious commentary. (I have no idea what that word means, but it on my "vocabulary improvement" list for February).

Anyway, just my take.

[BLPOG]

The Jacobs front page article says


Duke won both ACC Tournament encounters in this decade – a 17-point victory in the 2011 final and a 10-point win in the 2017 semis

I'd like to forget about last year as well, but we probably shouldn't.

[weezie]

Great Cam! Point

Lame cam. Laugh

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

It's possible that Roy tightens his rotation in this game. On the other hand, Duke puts a lot of pressure on the opposing team by driving to the lane frequently. I could easily see Zion getting Brooks and even Maye into foul trouble. Roy may be forced to go deeper into his bench than he would prefer on Wednesday with Black and Manley potentially out.

...IF Zion can keep himself out of foul trouble.
Love, Ima

[1991 duke law]

Having seen so many of these games – unfortunately most on TV – I have concluded that past performance is far from any guarantee of outcome. While there are occasions where we thrash Carolina because we are so much more talented, there are also so many occasions where the games are incredibly tight notwithstanding the talent imbalance.

Although a close and tight game in which we win provides more bitterness in the mouths of Carolina fans, I prefer where we decimate them.

Go Devils!!!!

[rsvman]

Having seen so many of these games – unfortunately most on TV – I have concluded that past performance is far from any guarantee of outcome. While there are occasions where we thrash Carolina because we are so much more talented, there are also so many occasions where the games are incredibly tight notwithstanding the talent imbalance.

Although a close and tight game in which we win provides more bitterness in the mouths of Carolina fans, I prefer where we decimate them.

Go Devils!!!!

I dunno. Any win against the Cheating Pond Scum is delicious, of course, but it's hard for me to imagine a better way than they way we did it when Austin Rivers hit that shot at the buzzer. Trailed the whole game, only to come roaring back and win it at the last second.

I guess a better way would be if we were 2 points ahead with 2 or 3 seconds left, and they drove down the court and White launched a 30-footer at the buzzer that went in, apparently sealing the victory for the visiting team, but then the refs review it on the monitor and 3 or 4 microns of the ball leather is still touching his hand when the red light illuminates around the backboard, so the points are taken away and we win. That would be just perfect. Make it a replay of the shot that occurred at the end of the shot clock when they were playing UVa at home, that looked in real time like it was good, but was clearly after the time expired on replay. Just like that, but at the very end of the game instead of the end of the shot clock would be absolutely amazing.

Don't get me wrong, I'd take a 30-point thrashing, too. :cool:

[NSDukeFan]

It won’t happen this year, but I would be okay with a Duke win with a score in the neighbourhood of 82-50. Although Rivers had an amazing ending with his shot, I also had a great time when Nolan passed to MP1 for the oop as Kyle is yelling on his way back up the court.

[TruBlu]

I dunno, Killer Left. In my era, it appears the Duke and UNC players often hated each other (think Art Heyman and Larry Brown), while the fans got along OK. There were UNC fans at the Indoor Stadium for Carolina-Duke games. Moreover, back in the day, football was far more important than hoops.

Now, I would argue, the players know each other and the relationships are decent, almost collegial. The best players on both teams have known each other from camps and AAU teams since they were 14. Aren't there still pick-up games in the summer involving players from both teams? The best ones also know they might be team-mates in the NBA -- and making a ton of money. The fans -- not so much. Maybe it's the apparent domination of the internet by the worst five percent (0.5 percent?) that fills the ether with bilious commentary. (I have no idea what that word means, but it on my "vocabulary improvement" list for February).

Anyway, just my take.

IIRC, there was a time (back in the 60's, 70's and maybe 80's) when the Duke and Carolina players would have a preseason "pick-up" game, with no coaches present. Word of mouth would get out as to the outcome of the "game". I do not know if these "scrimmages" were friendly or testy. Maybe someone more knowledgeable (cough, cough . . . Jim?) could shed some light on these scrimmages, and when (if) they ended, or if they were merely a figment of my imagination.

[DavidBenAkiva]

It won’t happen this year, but I would be okay with a Duke win with a score in the neighbourhood of 82-50. Although Rivers had an amazing ending with his shot, I also had a great time when Nolan passed to MP1 for the oop as Kyle is yelling on his way back up the court.

It's hard to see how this North Carolina team is held under 70 points. The final score might be something closer to 102-70 this year.

I sure hope I didn't just put a hex on our beloved Blue Devils!

[roywhite]

I dunno. Any win against the Cheating Pond Scum is delicious, of course, but it's hard for me to imagine a better way than they way we did it when Austin Rivers hit that shot at the buzzer. Trailed the whole game, only to come roaring back and win it at the last second.



Indeed. Classic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyVKM08KgIU

**note--I had almost forgotten Zeller's tap-in for our side...lol

[budwom]

It's hard to see how this North Carolina team is held under 70 points. The final score might be something closer to 102-70 this year.

I sure hope I didn't just put a hex on our beloved Blue Devils!

The Pomeranian has it 90-79, Duke, FWIW...it is a bit unnerving how often he's accurate with his predictions...(I'll take a one point win for sure).

[MChambers]

The Pomeranian has it 90-79, Duke, FWIW...it is a bit unnerving how often he's accurate with his predictions...(I'll take a one point win for sure).

Bart Torvick has a very similar projection, not surprisingly.

[jv001]

I dunno. Any win against the Cheating Pond Scum is delicious, of course, but it's hard for me to imagine a better way than they way we did it when Austin Rivers hit that shot at the buzzer. Trailed the whole game, only to come roaring back and win it at the last second.

I guess a better way would be if we were 2 points ahead with 2 or 3 seconds left, and they drove down the court and White launched a 30-footer at the buzzer that went in, apparently sealing the victory for the visiting team, but then the refs review it on the monitor and 3 or 4 microns of the ball leather is still touching his hand when the red light illuminates around the backboard, so the points are taken away and we win. That would be just perfect. Make it a replay of the shot that occurred at the end of the shot clock when they were playing UVa at home, that looked in real time like it was good, but was clearly after the time expired on replay. Just like that, but at the very end of the game instead of the end of the shot clock would be absolutely amazing.

Don't get me wrong, I'd take a 30-point thrashing, too. :cool:

You want me to have a heart attack?:cool: When I first read your post, I thought of White being our own Captain Jack. The I saw the visiting team part. I'll take a win, any kind of win. GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

It won’t happen this year, but I would be okay with a Duke win with a score in the neighbourhood of 82-50. Although Rivers had an amazing ending with his shot, I also had a great time when Nolan passed to MP1 for the oop as Kyle is yelling on his way back up the court.

Both scenarios are delicious...just different flavors of delicious. Of course it's alway fantastic to rout the Heels, when Duke is the superior team. That said, Rivers sticking the dagger in, on their court, in a game they lead wire to wire, and in a year when they were probably better...THAT is a goose bump moment that will always be cherished... I was on an "off topic" thread on a boating forum known as The Hull Truth during that game, and the Cheats had us Duke folk outnumbered bad on that forum. They were so cocky.....all game....until they mysteriously went away.......

[DavidBenAkiva]

As long as I live, I will never understand why the Daily Tar Heel published this video, but I am so, so, so happy they did


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1af8KnM0_c

[moonpie23]

this will be a tough game.....hope we don't come out flat.....it's thrilling to see a comeback, but i'd prefer a put-away....

[rsvman]

Indeed. Classic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyVKM08KgIU

**note--I had almost forgotten Zeller's tap-in for our side...lol

Not to mention one of the all-time classic DBR posts the next day; can't remember who posted it, though. But it said, paraphrasing, that Zeller was now only 2767 points shy of being Duke's all-time leading scorer.


From memory, I believe that Zeller also missed two free throws (or maybe the front end of a 1-and-1?) within the last two minutes or so of the game. Oh, and he was the guy above whose outstretched arms Austin's shot flew!

Thank you, Tyler Zeller!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Wednesday night might have a very special guest as former President Barack Obama will reportedly be in the stands to take in the game (being reported by Jay Williams and others). I thought the hype train was out of control with Jay Z and LeBron at recent games. This is a whole other level.

[devildeac]

Wednesday night might have a very special guest as former President Barack Obama will reportedly be in the stands to take in the game (being reported by Jay Williams and others). I thought the hype train was out of control with Jay Z and LeBron at recent games. This is a whole other level.

Will he have a team that he prefers to emerge as victors from the fracas?

[Pghdukie]

Will he have a team that he prefers to emerge as victors from the fracas?

Obama has a history of dropping in on the Holes and playing a little hoops. He isn't great, but not bad either! Has a left handed jumper with some accuracy.

[roywhite]

Not to mention one of the all-time classic DBR posts the next day; can't remember who posted it, though. But it said, paraphrasing, that Zeller was now only 2767 points shy of being Duke's all-time leading scorer.


From memory, I believe that Zeller also missed two free throws (or maybe the front end of a 1-and-1?) within the last two minutes or so of the game. Oh, and he was the guy above whose outstretched arms Austin's shot flew!

Thank you, Tyler Zeller!

Yeah, it was actually a bad, very bad, really bad last minute for Tyler Zeller. With 44 seconds left and Zeller on the free throw line, he missed the first and hit the second one to give UNC a 3-point lead. With a little over 14 seconds left, Zeller tipped in the missed Duke shot. Zeller was then fouled almost immediately; proceeded to hit the first free throw and missed the second, leaving the Heels up by two. Austin came down, got Zeller on a switch and hit the game-winner over his out-stretched arms.

[Kedsy]

There were a number of games in there where both teams were really good, but Duke was better, yet the Cheats seemed to have Duke's number. 1998 comes to mind. The Cheats won easily in Chapel Hill, and led virtually the entire game in Cameron til Duke squeaked out a 77-75 win. It didn't make sense. We were trailing in those two games probably 78 of the 80 minutes...

While it's true Duke was ranked #1 going into all three encounters with the Heels in 1998 and UNC was "only" ranked #2, #3, and #4 going into its three games with Duke, it's not entirely obvious that Duke was better than UNC in 1998. Consider:

(a) UNC won two of the three games head-to-head with Duke;
(b) UNC went to the Final Four and Duke didn't (though admittedly we probably should have);
(c) Elton Brand didn't play in the first game (when UNC won easily in Chapel Hill), and thus we were almost certainly not the better team going into that game.

So maybe it made more sense than it appears at first blush.

[MChambers]

Will he have a team that he prefers to emerge as victors from the fracas?

Let’s hope Reggie Love has straightened Obama out on this!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

While it's true Duke was ranked #1 going into all three encounters with the Heels in 1998 and UNC was "only" ranked #2, #3, and #4 going into its three games with Duke, it's not entirely obvious that Duke was better than UNC in 1998. Consider:

(a) UNC won two of the three games head-to-head with Duke;
(b) UNC went to the Final Four and Duke didn't (though admittedly we probably should have);
(c) Elton Brand didn't play in the first game (when UNC won easily in Chapel Hill), and thus we were almost certainly not the better team going into that game.

So maybe it made more sense than it appears at first blush.

I'll admit it was close, but I still think Duke was better. This is a case of bad match ups...head to head is an indication, but not always THE indication.

Duke dominated the ACC at 15-1, not UNC. Meanwhile, it took the natty winner to barely beat Duke in the NCAA, a game that Duke should have won. I believe some UK players said after winning the Natty that Duke was the best team they played all season...and Guthridge might've said the same thing (maybe Guthridge said it in 99). Meanwhile UNC lost to a mediocre Utah team in FF.

For whatever reason, they had Duke's number that season.....but overall? Not as good.

[rsvman]

Last time Obama was in the stands the result was not what I would consider remotely favorable. Most of you probably know exactly what I'm talking about.

[MartyClark]

Last time Obama was in the stands the result was not what I would consider remotely favorable. Most of you probably know exactly what I'm talking about.

Georgetown game in D.C. right?

Joe Biden shares the blame.

[Troublemaker]

I'll admit it was close, but I still think Duke was better. This is a case of bad match ups...head to head is an indication, but not always THE indication.

Duke dominated the ACC at 15-1, not UNC. Meanwhile, it took the natty winner to barely beat Duke in the NCAA, a game that Duke should have won. I believe some UK players said after winning the Natty that Duke was the best team they played all season...and Guthridge might've said the same thing (maybe Guthridge said it in 99). Meanwhile UNC lost to a mediocre Utah team in FF.

For whatever reason, they had Duke's number that season...but overall? Not as good.

I would say Duke had the better ACC season, but UNC was the better team. Keep in mind overall record was basically a wash with UNC 34-4 and Duke 32-4.

That UNC team was scary with a junior Antawn Jamison and a junior Vince Carter. Duke's best talents were freshmen that, one season later, would of course be amazingly dominant. But as far as '98 was concerned, I tend to think Duke overachieved a bit in conference play given our youth and Elton's injury. IMO, that UNC team was better by a decent margin.

[weezie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1af8KnM0_c

And they're still feeling terrible about it...:cool:

[Edouble]

As for ESPN, I can't imagine Vitale not doing a Duke Carolina game...even if they have both he and Bilas.

Thankfully, Dick Vitale was taken off of the Duke-Carolina game in 2015. His last time doing a Duke-Carolina game was close to five years ago.

[rocketeli]

As long as I live, I will never understand why the Daily Tar Heel published this video, but I am so, so, so happy they did


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1af8KnM0_c

well, they were the ones who published that cartoon about Jackie Manuel, which is still one of the funniest sports related things I've ever seen.

[budwom]

Wednesday night might have a very special guest as former President Barack Obama will reportedly be in the stands to take in the game (being reported by Jay Williams and others). I thought the hype train was out of control with Jay Z and LeBron at recent games. This is a whole other level.

I thought Jay Williams only reported stuff that had happened a week earlier.

[Bob Green]

Aside from how they shoot jumpers and rebound, Duke's foul situation is probably the most important factor.

I agree wholeheartedly. Foul trouble could give Carolina an advantage because they play a deeper rotation but I've argued for years Coach Williams plays too many players too many minutes. In the end, giving your best five or six players all the minutes they can handle is the better way to win ball games as long as they don't foul out.

Carolina has nobody to handle Zion Williamson so I fully expect Carolina to pack in the zone and dare us to beat them via the outside shot. If this is indeed the strategy Coach Williams employs, Duke needs to create turnovers on defense and score in transition before Carolina's defense has the opportunity to get set.

Coby White is Carolina's offensive catalyst so Tre Jones and Cam Reddish need to neutralize him and Duke's defense has to know where Cam Johnson is at all times. Johnson is a threat to knockdown a 3 PT FG at all times.

Luke Maye will foul out with 10+ minutes left in the game (or spend a ton of minutes sitting on the bench).

[devildeac]

I agree wholeheartedly. Foul trouble could give Carolina an advantage because they play a deeper rotation but I've argued for years Coach Williams plays too many players too many minutes. In the end, giving your best five or six players all the minutes they can handle is the better way to win ball games as long as they don't foul out.

Carolina has nobody to handle Zion Williamson so I fully expect Carolina to pack in the zone and dare us to beat them via the outside shot. If this is indeed the strategy Coach Williams employs, Duke needs to create turnovers on defense and score in transition before Carolina's defense has the opportunity to get set.

Coby White is Carolina's offensive catalyst so Tre Jones and Cam Reddish need to neutralize him and Duke's defense has to know where Cam Johnson is at all times. Johnson is a threat to knockdown a 3 PT FG at all times.

Luke Maye will foul out with 10+ minutes left in the game (or spend a ton of minutes sitting on the bench).

We might have to have one of these riding on this one if we are able to negotiate some agreeable conditions on defining "ton of minutes." ;)

9080

[uh_no]

I agree wholeheartedly. Foul trouble could give Carolina an advantage because they play a deeper rotation but I've argued for years Coach Williams plays too many players too many minutes. In the end, giving your best five or six players all the minutes they can handle is the better way to win ball games as long as they don't foul out.


Here's the question....would you take duke without zion vs any other team in the country minus their starting 5? 5 players on a team, 5 charges before fouling out? Some see coincidence, I see providence.

(I'm not HONESTLY suggesting Zion go head hunting, I'm merely observing that taking a charge on Zion may not be good for ones health....or chances of playing the rest of the game)

[Bob Green]

Please don't invent a time that never was.
GTHC, GTH!!!!!!!

Thank you!


You must spread some Comments around before commenting on killerleft again.

[BullBlue]

As long as I live, I will never understand why the Daily Tar Heel published this video, but I am so, so, so happy they did


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1af8KnM0_c

Ah, schadenfreude. :) :cool: :)

[Rich]

And needed a late 3 to send the game to OT at home against Miami the game before. For some reason people always seem to give UNC a pass. In its last 3 games, UNC was lucky to win at home against a middling Miami team in OT, lost at home to a UVA team coming off a loss to Duke at home by 10 two days before and down a starter, and clobbered the worst team in the conference with a dead man walking coach. How is UNC looking any better than Duke?!

The villain always appears to be more powerful than the hero, until good wins out over evil!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Disappointed to see the thread title still has not been corrected. Very misleading... gives the impression we’re playing a legitimate university or something.

[hallcity]

I’ve been expecting he’d come eventually. Barack Obama will be coming to the game according to Adam Zagoria quoting Jay Williams. Of course, we had a partially false report about visitors for the last game so we’ll see.
https://www.zagsblog.com/2019/02/18/barack-obama-expected-to-attend-north-carolina-duke-

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I’ve been expecting he’d come eventually. Barack Obama will be coming to the game according to Adam Zagoria quoting Jay Williams. Of course, we had a partially false report about visitors for the last game so we’ll see.

Obama picked the Heels to go all the way more often than Bilas.....he's no Duke fan.

[devilseven]

It will be a security nightmare. Remember the Clinton 1994 Final Four, only worse. Better get there and line up early in the ice storm

[SavDukeGrad]

Well at least this year they’re trying to avoid a drunken brawl in K-Ville!

[sagegrouse]

Obama picked the Heels to go all the way more often than Bilas....he's no Duke fan.

Yep, it's the North Carolina vote, of which Tar Heel fans are the a large part. Now it's a different story.

Duke has had only one visit by a sitting president -- Ronald Reagan on February 9, 1988.

Trinity College received a visit from Teddy Roosevelt in 1905, who invited Trinity Professor John Spencer Bassett to accompany him on the presidential train to Durham.

[uh_no]

It will be a security nightmare. Remember the Clinton 1994 Final Four, only worse. Better get there and line up early in the ice storm

Not really. Bush Sr. has been to a game before, and VIPs come all the time. (Justice Alito attended a few games last year, for instance). The current protocols to get into the building have been in place for a couple years, and there should be no more hassle on THAT front regardless of whether Obama will be there.

However, after last year's fiasco, access to K-ville will be much more tightly controlled. Were Obama to want to venture there, he has his own secret service detail. While I don't have any specifics, I wouldn't be surprised if they limited access past towerview to people with tickets/wristbands....and Obama would likely be able to come in through the K center.

[aimo]

Why does the Chronicle centerfold say WE DON'T DRINK SALTY OJ? Call me clueless.

[devilseven]

Not really. Bush Sr. has been to a game before, and VIPs come all the time. (Justice Alito attended a few games last year, for instance). The current protocols to get into the building have been in place for a couple years, and there should be no more hassle on THAT front regardless of whether Obama will be there.

However, after last year's fiasco, access to K-ville will be much more tightly controlled. Were Obama to want to venture there, he has his own secret service detail. While I don't have any specifics, I wouldn't be surprised if they limited access past towerview to people with tickets/wristbands...and Obama would likely be able to come in through the K center.

All those protocols will be out the window. The Secret Service will be setting the protocols for Obama's visit.

[Wahoo2000]

Disappointed to see the thread title still has not been corrected. Very misleading... gives the impression we’re playing a legitimate university or something.

Not much "legitimacy" left in major revenue college athletics in general in terms of "student athletes". UNC did take it to another level though, admittedly.

[uh_no]

All those protocols will be out the window. The Secret Service will be setting the protocols for Obama's visit.

We shall see.

Anyway, it would be hard for the entrance security to be upped even further short of mandatory cavity searches, so I would be shocked if anything changed with regard to entrance security. but what do I know...i'm just on gameday staff.

[-jk]

We shall see.

Anyway, it would be hard for the entrance security to be upped even further short of mandatory cavity searches, so I would be shocked if anything changed with regard to entrance security. but what do I know...i'm just on gameday staff.

In Charlotte in '94, they added xray machines to the metal detectors. And pretty much everyone had to enter on one end of the building - it was a mob...
-jk

[Utley]

Pretty sure Roy recently revealed he drinks his OJ with salt.


Why does the Chronicle centerfold say WE DON'T DRINK SALTY OJ? Call me clueless.

[SavDukeGrad]

We shall see.

Anyway, it would be hard for the entrance security to be upped even further short of mandatory cavity searches, so I would be shocked if anything changed with regard to entrance security. but what do I know...i'm just on gameday staff.

Would they up entrance security to football game standards and eliminate bags? Or could they on such short notice?

[-jk]

Would they up entrance security to football game standards and eliminate bags? Or could they on such short notice?

Except for Duke Store (and with the appropriate receipt - I got caught behind a guy with the bag whose wife had already gone through with the receipt), bags are already eliminated...

-jk

[hallcity]

Pretty sure Roy recently revealed he drinks his OJ with salt.

Weird but true.
https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2019/02/he-does-what-north-carolina-mens-basketball-head-coach-roy-williams-admits-to-salting-his-orange-juice

[aimo]

Weird but true.
https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/2019/02/he-does-what-north-carolina-mens-basketball-head-coach-roy-williams-admits-to-salting-his-orange-juice

Thinking they could have come up with something better than that for the centerfold.

[BLPOG]

Thinking they could have come up with something better than that for the centerfold.

"My coaching sucks."
- Roy Williams, Nov. 29, 2018

[Devilwin]

I will say this one does concern me a bit. Must play good defense and make some threes. If this occurs, we should win. We have a huge advantage with Zion, but he must avoid fouls.

[uh_no]

Would they up entrance security to football game standards and eliminate bags? Or could they on such short notice?

usually any changes to that kind of thing are known a couple days out, and as far as I know it's BAU. Other things like where the VIP is sitting, where their security detail will be positioned and their ingress/egress are shared before the game.

The big challenge we have in cameron is that it's not like other stadia. We can't shut down entire entrance ways during the game, There is no private access to the court. I've run into issues with security detail before insisting on standing in front of other seated guests...and that simply doesn't fly. With a stadium like cameron, simply applying the same procedures they'd have for a modern stadium often isn't practicable...so there is a lot of work that happens behind the scenes to ensure the security detail can do what they do without impacting other attendees.

I think another contrast with charlotte is that Duke has a huge vested interest in keeping the fan experience high, and while things like the now-draconian security policies might have, from what i've heard, come from even higher up, the department could just tell Obama "thanks but no thanks" if they demanded, say, duke bring in xray machines and demand severe modifications to fan ingress. The NCAA couldn't give a crap.

[DU82]

In Charlotte in '94, they added xray machines to the metal detectors. And pretty much everyone had to enter on one end of the building - it was a mob...
-jk

That was for a sitting president, not a former one. While his security two years after his presidency is likely tighter than GHW Bush, who was 20+ years out of the White House, it’s not the same as the one currently residing at 1600 Pennsylvania
Avenue.

Plus, we’re unfortunately more used to the tighter security and the change isn’t as significant as it was in ‘94.

[chris13]

usually any changes to that kind of thing are known a couple days out, and as far as I know it's BAU. Other things like where the VIP is sitting, where their security detail will be positioned and their ingress/egress are shared before the game.

The big challenge we have in cameron is that it's not like other stadia. We can't shut down entire entrance ways during the game, There is no private access to the court. I've run into issues with security detail before insisting on standing in front of other seated guests...and that simply doesn't fly. With a stadium like cameron, simply applying the same procedures they'd have for a modern stadium often isn't practicable...so there is a lot of work that happens behind the scenes to ensure the security detail can do what they do without impacting other attendees.

I think another contrast with charlotte is that Duke has a huge vested interest in keeping the fan experience high, and while things like the now-draconian security policies might have, from what i've heard, come from even higher up, the department could just tell Obama "thanks but no thanks" if they demanded, say, duke bring in xray machines and demand severe modifications to fan ingress. The NCAA couldn't give a crap.


I assume security for former Presidents is slightly more relaxed than for the current President and I would also guess that a visit by a former President anywhere would be discussed with venue security so that security protocols can be as little of a disruption as possible.

Having said that, I am not on game day staff.

I did do a bunch of freelance TV work and back in the day Cameron and Allen Field House could be more challenging than more modern arenas that were designed with TV facilities integrated into the building. For example, TV trucks when I was working in the late 90s and mid aughts had to park out on the Wally Wade concourse as opposed to inside the building like many newer arenas.

Finally, and this issue is certainly not confined to Duke, the combination of higher ticket prices, tougher game day security, and high def television along with second screens, make the game day vs. stay at home and watch calculation tip away from going in person.

[Barnstormer]

Reggie Love was assistant to Obama for many years but he couldn't persuade Obama to support Duke. Expect North Carolina to play better than they have all year long. This is their national championship game. I hope all Duke players are well and prepared. Please don't miss your free throws. Please block out and keep the North Carolina players away from the basket. I will bet they shoot better than 60% from 3 point. Just don't foul them or give them open shots and block out.

[dukelifer]

Reggie Love was assistant to Obama for many years but he couldn't persuade Obama to support Duke. Expect North Carolina to play better than they have all year long. This is their national championship game. I hope all Duke players are well and prepared. Please don't miss your free throws. Please block out and keep the North Carolina players away from the basket. I will bet they shoot better than 60% from 3 point. Just don't foul them or give them open shots and block out.

This is not UNC's NC game. UNC is more than capable of being in the real NC game. They are ranked 8 or 9th and can easily move to a top 5 team by tourney time. This is one of the best teams in the country - coached by one of the best coaches. If they shoot better than 60% from 3 - Duke is in for a very long night.

[Kedsy]

I will bet they shoot better than 60% from 3 point.

You would almost certainly lose. UNC has only shot above 50% once this season, and in that game (vs. Gonzaga) they shot well below 60% (52%, to be precise).

[rsvman]

They do shoot well from 3, especially Johnson. Pretty sure the coaching staff is aware of this.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

They do shoot well from 3, especially Johnson. Pretty sure the coaching staff is aware of this.

And they shot lights out against WF.....regression to the mean should work in our favor here.......

[Kedsy]

You would almost certainly lose. UNC has only shot above 50% once this season, and in that game (vs. Gonzaga) they shot well below 60% (52%, to be precise).


And they shot lights out against WF...regression to the mean should work in our favor here...

Looks like my earlier statement was wrong -- I didn't see the Wake game when I examined the game logs. UNC shot 64% from three against Wake, so I guess they can do it. Hopefully HBCK is right and they drop down into the 30s or at least the 40s for this game.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Looks like my earlier statement was wrong -- I didn't see the Wake game when I examined the game logs. UNC shot 64% from three against Wake, so I guess they can do it. Hopefully HBCK is right and they drop down into the 30s or at least the 40s for this game.

And hopefully, Duke's D (far superior to a bored WF's defense) will contribute to driving that percentage down. Would be nice if Zion could to one of Cam Johnson's threes what he did to DeAndre Hunter's 3 versus UVA.

[devildeac]

Nice change to the thread title. Maybe "u"nc instead of unc? ;)

[uh_no]

And hopefully, Duke's D (far superior to a bored WF's defense) will contribute to driving that percentage down. Would be nice if Zion could to one of Cam Johnson's threes what he did to DeAndre Hunter's 3 versus UVA.

I'm concerned about the pick 'n' pop against UL and the pnr against NCSU were abused. I feel like UNC is going to exactly as other have done....and we'll see HBS screens every time down the floor. I imagine some matchups that I really REALLY don't want to see, but I imagine we will...

-Cameron "48% from 3 seven inches taller than tre" johnson being guarded by Tre jones
-coby white guarded by bolden

johnson in general is going to be very dangerous if they run offense like UL did for much of the game....he can get his shot off well.....and they'll get putbacks off his misses


I'd bet we see zone at some point.

[roywhite]

Just not overly worried about Duke's perimeter defense vs the Heels shooters; they don't have the inside game they normally do, and Reddish, Barrett, and Tre are all very capable defenders, with Jack White solid and Goldwire possibly getting some minutes for pressure defense. You know Coach K and the staff are preparing for the Cheats outside game.

The really tough matchup in this game -- UNC trying to guard Zion in the paint. Good luck.

[Nugget]

I'm concerned about the pick 'n' pop against UL and the pnr against NCSU were abused. I feel like UNC is going to exactly as other have done...and we'll see HBS screens every time down the floor.

Does UNC run much high ball screens or other pars? My recollection is they historically haven't done much of either of those.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Does UNC run much high ball screens or other pars? My recollection is they historically haven't done much of either of those.
Maye does it a lot.

[Indoor66]

Nice change to the thread title. Maybe "u"nc instead of unc? ;)

I vote for unCheat, but I am a fundamentalist.

[PackMan97]

9f

/thread

[jv001]

Reggie Love was assistant to Obama for many years but he couldn't persuade Obama to support Duke. Expect North Carolina to play better than they have all year long. This is their national championship game. I hope all Duke players are well and prepared. Please don't miss your free throws. Please block out and keep the North Carolina players away from the basket. I will bet they shoot better than 60% from 3 point. Just don't foul them or give them open shots and block out.

In my eyes, Obama is a jinx. Not many good things have happened to our guys with him in attendance. I guess this could be posted in the jinx thread. :cool: GoDuke!

[DavidBenAkiva]

In my eyes, Obama is a jinx. Not many good things have happened to our guys with him in attendance. I guess this could be posted in the jinx thread. :cool: GoDuke!

I dunno, the last two times Duke won the National Championship, he was in attendance at the White House to celebrate with the team. Those were good things!

If Barack Obama was a Heels fan, he'd be going to the game at Chapel Hill. He is going to this game for the same reason Jay Z and LeBron James were at games earlier this year. This is the Zion show and the game of the year. If Duke pulls out the victory, expect to see him in the home locker room after the game. That would be a huge honor and I hope the team gets to experience it. This won't be the first time a former president attended a Duke home game!

https://today.duke.edu/sites/default/files/legacy_files/bushtop.jpg

[DavidBenAkiva]

If you are looking for a scouting video of UNC, I highly recommend this one from Jordan Sperber, AKA Hoops Vision.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xgm5x9mkd8A

[DavidBenAkiva]

Re-watching this breakdown, there are a couple things I think:

Marques Bolden is going to be huge in this game. Literally. He's so much taller and longer than anyone Carolina is going to put on the floor. In previous matchups with UNC, Bolden has been effective even when switched onto Joel Berry. In the 3 matchups with UNC last year, he had at least 1 block in each game, playing 17 minutes in both regular season games but only 7 in the ACC Tournament. The first matchup was, if I recall correctly, before Duke switched to a zone full-time. And Bolden is quick enough on his feet to challenge the rim-runner from UNC. The same applies even moreso to Javin DeLaurier, who will also be both taller and longer than anyone the Tar Heels will have on the court.

Duke loves switching, which is a great way to defend against UNC if you have the personnel. Michigan has a similar personnel to Duke and was able to counter a lot of what UNC tries to do with great success. The switch prevents the back-door lob from the post as well as the flair-outs that UNC loves to use to get open looks for Johnson and Maye. And switching makes it difficult for Coby White to do one of his best moves, splitting the screen where he jumps between the defenders. Even if he gets switched on Bolden, White isn't the fastest dude on the court and won't find an easy path to the rim. If Garrison Brooks in on the floor, Duke will be able to offer a help defender when Bolden or DeLaurier are guarding White. In the game against Michigan, UNC did shoot the ball well enough from 3, hitting 7 of 21. But they were pretty bad inside the arc when ran off the line and only managed 19 of 45 2-point attempts with John Teske of UM accumulating 5 blocks alone.

Duke is going to have a free run to the rim all night. UNC does not have a guy that can protect the hoop. Expect to see early and frequent looks to post entries to Zion and Marques. And it wouldn't be a shock to see Cam run to rim from the baseline all night.

[BLPOG]

If Barack Obama was a Heels fan, he'd be going to the game at Chapel Hill. He is going to this game for the same reason Jay Z and LeBron James were at games earlier this year. This is the Zion show and the game of the year.

Oh, I think he's made it pretty clear in the past that he roots for the Heels over the Devils, despite the Love connection. But he's also a basketball fan, and (in addition to your point re: the Zion show), everyone knows that if you're going to the Duke v. uNC game (and cost is no object), you go to Cameron.

[ACCfaninVirginia]

I know someone else already addressed this, but here are each team's last three games (what constitutes "lately" is perhaps subjective, but three games seems about right to me; rankings are from KenPom):

Duke:
10-point road win over #2 Virginia;
2-point road win over #14 Louisville;
16-point home win over #35 NC State.

UNC:
OT home win over #71 Miami;
8-point home loss to #2 Virginia;
38-point road win over #187 Wake Forest.

Impossible for me to look at the above and not say Duke is playing way better than UNC lately.

Totally agree; UVA played mediocre against UNC and still beat them on their home court; Lowly Miami was able to take them to OT; UNC is very weak inside, Zion will eat them alive on the boards, UNC cannot handle a team that slows the pace a bit and looks for good shots. I say Duke wins this by 20+ as Tre is much better that White at the point.

ACC tourney seeds this year seem to be headed for Duke #1, UVA #2, with Heels, VaTech, L'ville, Syracuse and FSU vying for last 2 double byes; based on remaining schedule, FSU surprisingly looks better for #3, UNC for #4 with both FSU and UNC as 5 loss conference records.

[COYS]

UNC certainly has the ability to get hot from three and grab some O-boards to make this a close contest, but I think Duke gets the job done. Ultimately, I think it will be Duke's versatility that gets the job done. I think UNC is particularly vulnerable to Duke's "death lineup," whether that be with Jordan and Tre harassing UNC's limited ball-handlers in a full court press or with Jack giving us the ability to switch all screens and take away three point shots. If we're worried about the Cheats on the offensive glass, putting Jack in with the four frosh actually improves our defensive rebounding. Zion is still capable of blocking shots, so it doesn't hurt our shot-blocking too much. Of course, this is not to say that our normal lineups with Marques and Javin splitting duties at center won't work. It's just that if we need to go to plan B or C, Duke has the personnel to make it happen. UNC might have more depth in terms of the number of minutes bench players receive, but Duke has more versatility to adapt to different scenarios within the game. Jack's offensive woes have mostly continued, but he has picked his defense up, again, and that's a big bonus heading into this game.

The obvious caveat is that Zion is essential to all of our best lineups. Hopefully the big guy will avoid the foul trouble that plagued him the past two games. It's worth remembering that Duke actually outscored UNC last year in the rubber match in the ACCT when Trevon was on the court. The problem was that he went out injured for a critical stretch in the first half and UNC capitalized. I would imagine that Duke will outscore UNC with Zion on the floor. Having our difference maker on the floor for as much of the game as possible will be key.

[Kedsy]

UNC might have more depth in terms of the number of minutes bench players receive, but Duke has more versatility to adapt to different scenarios within the game.

I agree. Frankly, I don't even know why people are worried about UNC's "depth." Their top 6 are pretty good (though ours are much better, if you break it down man for man), but after that, who would you rather have on the court, Javin DeLaurier and Alex O'Connell, or Brandon Robinson and Seventh Woods? At worst, that's a wash.

[CDu]

I agree. Frankly, I don't even know why people are worried about UNC's "depth." Their top 6 are pretty good (though ours are much better, if you break it down man for man), but after that, who would you rather have on the court, Javin DeLaurier and Alex O'Connell, or Brandon Robinson and Seventh Woods? At worst, that's a wash.

Yeah, the UNC bench is pretty bad. And their starters aren't nearly as talented as our starters.

UNC can absolutely win this game. But it will be more of a "us not ready for their system" or "them hitting an inordinately high number of 3s" type of game for it to happen. Either could certainly happen. They are more experienced by a lot, their system can catch teams off-guard, and they can really shoot the 3. If we're not focused and disciplined, they can punish us. But if we're dialed in and they aren't hitting 3s and/or totally abusing us on the glass, it's hard to see them beating us. Because we have the top 2 players (by a WIDE margin), 4 of the top 6 players, and 5 of the top 8 players, and as good a bench as them.

As always, the key is preventing easy baskets for them. Limit their transition opportunities, limit their offensive rebound putbacks, limit their backdoor lobs, contest their 3s. Do those things, and they look really ordinary. Only White can create his own shot. The challenge is that it can be difficult to do those things, and they are quite capable of capitalizing on defensive lapses.

[MChambers]

Yeah, the UNC bench is pretty bad. And their starters aren't nearly as talented as our starters.

UNC can absolutely win this game. But it will be more of a "us not ready for their system" or "them hitting an inordinately high number of 3s" type of game for it to happen. Either could certainly happen. They are more experienced by a lot, their system can catch teams off-guard, and they can really shoot the 3. If we're not focused and disciplined, they can punish us. But if we're dialed in and they aren't hitting 3s and/or totally abusing us on the glass, it's hard to see them beating us. Because we have the top 2 players (by a WIDE margin), 4 of the top 6 players, and 5 of the top 8 players, and as good a bench as them.
And a better coach!

[jv001]

Yeah, the UNC bench is pretty bad. And their starters aren't nearly as talented as our starters.

UNC can absolutely win this game. But it will be more of a "us not ready for their system" or "them hitting an inordinately high number of 3s" type of game for it to happen. Either could certainly happen. They are more experienced by a lot, their system can catch teams off-guard, and they can really shoot the 3. If we're not focused and disciplined, they can punish us. But if we're dialed in and they aren't hitting 3s and/or totally abusing us on the glass, it's hard to see them beating us. Because we have the top 2 players (by a WIDE margin), 4 of the top 6 players, and 5 of the top 8 players, and as good a bench as them.

As always, the key is preventing easy baskets for them. Limit their transition opportunities, limit their offensive rebound putbacks, limit their backdoor lobs, contest their 3s. Do those things, and they look really ordinary. Only White can create his own shot. The challenge is that it can be difficult to do those things, and they are quite capable of capitalizing on defensive lapses.

I certainly agree they are more experience and by a lot, but our players have gained some valuable experience at this point in the season. And our guys have for the most part overcome everything thrown at them. As you say in your post, we have the more talented players(4 of 6) and that in my opinion makes up for the experience advantage for the cheats. My biggest concern is our focus and Zion getting in foul trouble. I think we win in a close game. GoDuke!

[Reddevil]

It seems to me that as far as security is concerned one thing that would be really helpful is NOT ANNOUNCING TO THE WORLD THAT HE IS COMING! Geez really? I realize common sense died around 1979, but this seems obvious. Anyway it's irrelevant to the game. GO DUKE!!

[robed deity]

I can't quite put my finger on why but I think I'll feel a little better about the matchup in Chapel Hill. I still like Duke in this one, but it may be close.

[Troublemaker]

I agree wholeheartedly. Foul trouble could give Carolina an advantage because they play a deeper rotation but I've argued for years Coach Williams plays too many players too many minutes. In the end, giving your best five or six players all the minutes they can handle is the better way to win ball games as long as they don't foul out.

Carolina has nobody to handle Zion Williamson so I fully expect Carolina to pack in the zone and dare us to beat them via the outside shot. If this is indeed the strategy Coach Williams employs, Duke needs to create turnovers on defense and score in transition before Carolina's defense has the opportunity to get set.

A packed-in zone could be a break-in-case-of-emergency strategy if Duke happens to be handling UNC easily (which I don't expect), but to start off with, I think UNC will play their usual defense and offense. One reason is because their m2m naturally forces people into 3-pt attempts, anyway. UNC season after season gives up lots of 3-pt attempts, with this season being no exception: 41% of opponent shots come from 3 against UNC, which ranks them 262nd in the country at limiting 3-pt attempts. UNC accomplishes this differently from, say, how UVA does it. Whereas UVA performs what I would call "pre-help" (sinking their wings into the gaps before the ballhandler even penetrates), UNC waits for penetration and then over-helps (imo) off shooters. Zion and RJ will definitely see bodies in the paint at the end of their drives, and sometimes it'll be the wise choice to kick out for open threes. And I don't think we win if we shoot those open threes at a horrible percentage.

[Troublemaker]

Yeah, the UNC bench is pretty bad. And their starters aren't nearly as talented as our starters.

UNC can absolutely win this game. But it will be more of a "us not ready for their system" or "them hitting an inordinately high number of 3s" type of game for it to happen. Either could certainly happen. They are more experienced by a lot, their system can catch teams off-guard, and they can really shoot the 3. If we're not focused and disciplined, they can punish us. But if we're dialed in and they aren't hitting 3s and/or totally abusing us on the glass, it's hard to see them beating us. Because we have the top 2 players (by a WIDE margin), 4 of the top 6 players, and 5 of the top 8 players, and as good a bench as them.

As always, the key is preventing easy baskets for them. Limit their transition opportunities, limit their offensive rebound putbacks, limit their backdoor lobs, contest their 3s. Do those things, and they look really ordinary. Only White can create his own shot. The challenge is that it can be difficult to do those things, and they are quite capable of capitalizing on defensive lapses.

In addition to those 3 caveats, I would add: (a) Duke shooting horribly from 3 and (b) Duke's young players being too amped up for their first UNC game and playing poorly.

Truth be told, there are a lot of ways for UNC to win this game. That doesn't mean Duke isn't the better team -- we are -- but I would expect a competitive game. Further, I think UNC's odds to win the game are underrated by the computer systems. Kenpom gives them a 16% chance and Torvik gives them a 19% chance at victory tomorrow. I would up that a bit to the 25% range because of the possibility of Duke's freshmen being too amped up, particularly at the start of the game.

[uh_no]

It seems to me that as far as security is concerned one thing that would be really helpful is NOT ANNOUNCING TO THE WORLD THAT HE IS COMING! Geez really? I realize common sense died around 1979, but this seems obvious. Anyway it's irrelevant to the game. GO DUKE!!

That's known as security through obscurity, and except in extreme cases, it's generally unhelpful. It generally leads to lax security practice since you assume that nobody will find out what you're doing, and thus can't attack it....but means that when people inevitably DO find out what you're doing, your holes are gaping.

So in that scenario, the only way to actually do security is to make it so its safe even if people DO find out about it...and if that's the case, then there's no reason you should fear people knowing about it. In many cases that's often considered beneficial as the community can detect and inform you of potential gaps/threats.


There are some instances, however, where it is relevant...such as when Bush visited Afghanistan...but one could argue that at some point the threat is SO great that there is no reasonable security protocol to protect against most threats...and thus surprise is the only tactic...I don't think that's the case here and am reasonably confident that Mr. Obama can be reasonably protected regardless of outside knowledge.

[robed deity]

In addition to those 3 caveats, I would add: (a) Duke shooting horribly from 3 and (b) Duke's young players being too amped up for their first UNC game and playing poorly.

Truth be told, there are a lot of ways for UNC to win this game. That doesn't mean Duke isn't the better team -- we are -- but I would expect a competitive game. Further, I think UNC's odds to win the game are underrated by the computer systems. Kenpom gives them a 16% chance and Torvik gives them a 19% chance at victory tomorrow. I would up that a bit to the 25% range because of the possibility of Duke's freshmen being too amped up, particularly at the start of the game.

I agree about the "being too amped up" factor. I expect a semi shaky first half. And I wouldn't be surprised if one of Duke's role guys (Jack White?) Plays a key role in a win.

[COYS]

A packed-in zone could be a break-in-case-of-emergency strategy if Duke happens to be handling UNC easily (which I don't expect), but to start off with, I think UNC will play their usual defense and offense. One reason is because their m2m naturally forces people into 3-pt attempts, anyway. UNC season after season gives up lots of 3-pt attempts, with this season being no exception: 41% of opponent shots come from 3 against UNC, which ranks them 262nd in the country at limiting 3-pt attempts. UNC accomplishes this differently from, say, how UVA does it. Whereas UVA performs what I would call "pre-help" (sinking their wings into the gaps before the ballhandler even penetrates), UNC waits for penetration and then over-helps (imo) off shooters. Zion and RJ will definitely see bodies in the paint at the end of their drives, and sometimes it'll be the wise choice to kick out for open threes. And I don't think we win if we shoot those open threes at a horrible percentage.

Excellent analysis, as always. While I want Duke to take (and make) open threes, I also hope that Duke is willing to drive, kick, and then drive and kick again and again. UNC has the wings to help on penetration, but they don't have the shot-blockers capable of stopping RJ and Zion at the rim. The more we jumble their help defense, the more likely that our drives will result in an easy bucket at the rim. Personally, I'd love to see more of our motion offense in the half court to keep UNC's M2M D constantly moving, switching, helping, and recovering.

[Troublemaker]

I can't quite put my finger on why but I think I'll feel a little better about the matchup in Chapel Hill. I still like Duke in this one, but it may be close.

I'll take a stab at it. What you are remembering in your gut is what happens in odd-numbered years like this one when the first Duke-UNC game is in Cameron: UNC seems to hold a lead in the second half of that first game in Cameron, and Duke has to make a run to come back and win.

In 2011, UNC was up 43-29 at halftime (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=310400150). Watching Nolan lead the second half comeback was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-7v_WAbDbE).

In 2013, UNC led 38-31 at 17:04 in the 2nd half (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=206391966). Watching Seth and company rally (and Mama Curry dancing in the stands) was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdN42xivYEQ).

In 2015 (a championship season, obviously), UNC led by ten(!) 77-67 with only 3:22 left in the game (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400587989). Watching Tyus and company storm back was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmCGhHbtQK4).

In 2017, UNC led 64-59 with 11:16 left in the 2nd half (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400915431). Watching Grayson light them up down the stretch was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFTNxPByKCM).


(Note: I probably could've gone back further back with this, but then we're getting into the pre-2010 era when UNC was dominant in recruiting in combination with keeping players around for a long time. I think the recent past when Duke was either even or ahead in talent is more relevant.)

[COYS]

I'll take a stab at it. What you are remembering in your gut is what happens in odd-numbered years like this one when the first Duke-UNC game is in Cameron: UNC seems to hold a lead in the second half of that first game in Cameron, and Duke has to make a run to come back and win.

In 2011, UNC was up 43-29 at halftime (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=310400150). Watching Nolan lead the second half comeback was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-7v_WAbDbE).

In 2013, UNC led 38-31 at 17:04 in the 2nd half (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=206391966). Watching Seth and company rally (and Mama Curry dancing in the stands) was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdN42xivYEQ).

In 2015 (a championship season, obviously), UNC led by ten(!) 77-67 with only 3:22 left in the game (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400587989). Watching Tyus and company storm back was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmCGhHbtQK4).

In 2017, UNC led 64-59 with 11:16 left in the 2nd half (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400915431). Watching Grayson light them up down the stretch was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFTNxPByKCM).


(Note: I probably could've gone back further back with this, but then we're getting into the pre-2010 era when UNC was dominant in recruiting in combination with keeping players around for a long time. I think the recent past when Duke was either even or ahead in talent is more relevant.)

What's interesting about that list is that it includes young teams (2015 with Jah, Justise, and Tyus) but also veteran teams (2011 with Nolan and Kyle and 2013 with Mason, Seth, Ryan etc.). Perhaps there is something to the idea that it could take a second for Duke's freshman to adjust to Roy's up-tempo system. Certainly my own memory of the aforementioned games is that we gave up a lot of easy buckets in transition before mounting our comeback.

The one thing I'll say about this year's team is that they are already used to playing faster than any of these other Duke teams. That might be an asset.

[Bike4Fun]

If Jimmy Carter can sit at a table and sign his book at the Sam's Club in Durham (yes, that did happen), then the Secret Service can figure out:

"President Obama-sit-with-us!"

[uh_no]

If Jimmy Carter can sit at a table and sign his book at the Sam's Club in Durham (yes, that did happen), then the Secret Service can figure out:

"President Obama-sit-with-us!"

Given that Obama will likely be there stumping for the dump, he may end up being unwelcome in section 17....we shall see to what degree he tempers his enthusiasm for the bad guys.

[hallcity]

Stephen Wiseman
‏ @stevewisemanNC
4m4 minutes ago

Flu-like illness that has raged through Duke locker room has reached walk-on Mike Buckmire (Zion's sidekick during postgame interviews). Antonio Vrankovic missed Louisville game. RJ Barrett and Marques Bolden had it last week too. Checking to see flu's KenPom rating. Formidable

[Truth&Justise]

Given that Obama will likely be there stumping for the dump, he may end up being unwelcome in section 17...we shall see to what degree he tempers his enthusiasm for the bad guys.

Well, if he's trying to decide what to wear, he has not one, but two excellent options:

9084

9085

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I understand all the analysis of talent, matchups, strategy, tactics, etc. It’s natural to want to slice and dice this game more than any other. But, truly, this is Duke v Cheaters... all that stuff is out the window. You simply can’t account for the impact of the “rivalry” itself. How many times over has this been shown to be true? Sure there has been the occasional blowout (82-50!) but rarely are there even victories that I would characterize as comfortable for either team. To that point, I suspect we’ll earn a victory by an uncomfortable margin. Which will make it even more delicious. And isn’t that what this is really all about? Bathing in the tears of our defeated enemy’s fanbase?

[AGDukesky]

Stephen Wiseman
‏ @stevewisemanNC
4m4 minutes ago

Flu-like illness that has raged through Duke locker room has reached walk-on Mike Buckmire (Zion's sidekick during postgame interviews). Antonio Vrankovic missed Louisville game. RJ Barrett and Marques Bolden had it last week too. Checking to see flu's KenPom rating. Formidable

Based upon Syracuse’s luck in the first meeting, I expect at least 2-3 starters out for the next game against them...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I can't quite put my finger on why but I think I'll feel a little better about the matchup in Chapel Hill. I still like Duke in this one, but it may be close.

I almost always feel better about the game in Chapel Hill...this has been a pretty good series for the visitors, and the pressure to defend the home court sometimes does cause "the amp factor" to be a negative. One of the early days of College GameDay - I think the first time ESPN was showing like 3-4 versions of the game on their various outlets - was Carolina at Cameron. Game Day burned out the crazies IMO, who weren't that great for the game, and Duke was terrible and got beat...as a favorite. Can't remember the year but I'm sure some here do.

The amp factor and the pressure factor are problematic at home. On the road? Let her rip and see what happens.

That said, I think we win this week.

[uh_no]

I understand all the analysis of talent, matchups, strategy, tactics, etc. It’s natural to want to slice and dice this game more than any other. But, truly, this is Duke v Cheaters... all that stuff is out the window. You simply can’t account for the impact of the “rivalry” itself. How many times over has this been shown to be true? Sure there has been the occasional blowout (82-50!) but rarely are there even victories that I would characterize as comfortable for either team. To that point, I suspect we’ll earn a victory by an uncomfortable margin. Which will make it even more delicious. And isn’t that what this is really all about? Bathing in the tears of our defeated enemy’s fanbase?

That's more a commentary on the fact that Duke and UNC are usually both extremely strong teams, and thus are expected to have close games. I would expect if we examined UNCvDuke matchups vs any other matchup, we'd find the deviation from expectation to be about the same.

[Troublemaker]

Stephen Wiseman
‏ @stevewisemanNC
4m4 minutes ago

Flu-like illness that has raged through Duke locker room has reached walk-on Mike Buckmire (Zion's sidekick during postgame interviews). Antonio Vrankovic missed Louisville game. RJ Barrett and Marques Bolden had it last week too. Checking to see flu's KenPom rating. Formidable

Coach K begins his presser (I haven't watched the entire thing) with "we're in good health" and mentions only Buckmire currently having the flu: https://www.wralsportsfan.com/rs/video/18202768/

[DavidBenAkiva]

coach k begins his presser (i haven't watched the entire thing) with "we're in good health" and mentions only buckmire currently having the flu: https://www.wralsportsfan.com/rs/video/18202768/

quarantine buckmire!!!

[dukelifer]

Stephen Wiseman
‏ @stevewisemanNC
4m4 minutes ago

Flu-like illness that has raged through Duke locker room has reached walk-on Mike Buckmire (Zion's sidekick during postgame interviews). Antonio Vrankovic missed Louisville game. RJ Barrett and Marques Bolden had it last week too. Checking to see flu's KenPom rating. Formidable

Flu is a tough opponent. May make this next stretch of two away games even harder

[NSDukeFan]

That's more a commentary on the fact that Duke and UNC are usually both extremely strong teams, and thus are expected to have close games. I would expect if we examined UNCvDuke matchups vs any other matchup, we'd find the deviation from expectation to be about the same.

Deviation from regulation emotions about the games tends to be higher in Duke-UNC games, however. Although deviation from regular emotions tends to be high in any Duke loss and many other big wins.

[COYS]

Deviation from regulation emotions about the games tends to be higher in Duke-UNC games, however. Although deviation from regular emotions tends to be high in any Duke loss and many other big wins.

I’d add that UNC is the only team that been unranked when the two teams have met over the past 20+ seasons. Thus, the times unranked UNC teams have pulled off an upset (2003 being the most surprising, probably) stick out in Duke fans’ minds. But Duke hasn’t had a chance to knock off UNC in a BIG upset because, well , Duke hasn’t been unranked.

[uh_no]

Deviation from regulation emotions about the games tends to be higher in Duke-UNC games, however. Although deviation from regular emotions tends to be high in any Duke loss and many other big wins.

I'm not sure the data would support that conclusion. Anecdotally it seems right, but humans are awfully bad about attaching undue significance to events at the tail end of the distribution. Since duke is highly rated, almost every loss is either a big upset (when playing a crappy opponent) or in a big game (when playing a good team).

I don't doubt that there is more emotion in certain games, I'm just skeptical that it has a significant impact on the quality of the play and in many cases, is a post-hoc explanation of otherwise inexplicable outcomes which probability would already account for.

I'm sure if we went back and looked at post game threads in many of our losses, in many, at least someone says "well it's an emotional game for them." Did they win because they were emotional? or does it appear that they were emotional because they had a chance to win/won?

The only times that UNC and Duke were expected to be >10 points away in 100 possessions on a neutral court (~7 points margin in the game) in the kenpom era were:
2010: one blowout, and a win by 10 at the dome, pretty much as expected
2003: Duke would be expected to win by a couple points at the dome, and lost by 3.
2002: two massive blowouts

So it seems pretty much every game in the KP era but for 7 or so have been expected to be close, almost all are, and of the ones expected to be "blowouts", most were. There is simply no evidence here that emotion, at least in this series, drives the teams to more equal play.

I find the fact that despite the high emotions, teams continue to execute to their ability the far more impressive outcome.

[FerryFor50]

In addition to those 3 caveats, I would add: (a) Duke shooting horribly from 3 and (b) Duke's young players being too amped up for their first UNC game and playing poorly.

Truth be told, there are a lot of ways for UNC to win this game. That doesn't mean Duke isn't the better team -- we are -- but I would expect a competitive game. Further, I think UNC's odds to win the game are underrated by the computer systems. Kenpom gives them a 16% chance and Torvik gives them a 19% chance at victory tomorrow. I would up that a bit to the 25% range because of the possibility of Duke's freshmen being too amped up, particularly at the start of the game.

I think that the young players won't have an issue being too amped up. I think they actually *thrive* on being amped up - it focuses them better. Remember RJ in the UVA game? Zion anytime the opponent tries to challenge him physically?

I think UNC *can* win this game, but it would take a lot of things going their way for that to happen.

- They'd have to outwork Duke for loose balls, rebounds, etc. At Cameron. Against Zion, who works harder than anyone I've seen with his talent level in a while.
- They'd have to play like Louisville did, but for 40 minutes
- They'd need Zion and/or RJ to get into foul trouble
- They'd need Cam to be cold from the outside and loose with the ball
- They'd need a bad game from Tre
- They'd need Duke to get zero contributions from their bigs

I think the game will be close, unless Duke is hitting from outside and/or Bolden has a game like he had against NCSU or Auburn. If Bolden is controlling the paint, getting boards and protecting the rim, etc. *and* Duke is hitting at least 35% from outside? No chance for the Heels.

I just don't see Luke Maye having any sort of success against Zion, and I think our Cam neutralizes their Cam. I also think they'll wear Coby White down with Tre and RJ. Bolden, I think, is better than any of their post guys.

[oldnavy]

That's known as security through obscurity, and except in extreme cases, it's generally unhelpful. It generally leads to lax security practice since you assume that nobody will find out what you're doing, and thus can't attack it...but means that when people inevitably DO find out what you're doing, your holes are gaping.

So in that scenario, the only way to actually do security is to make it so its safe even if people DO find out about it...and if that's the case, then there's no reason you should fear people knowing about it. In many cases that's often considered beneficial as the community can detect and inform you of potential gaps/threats.


There are some instances, however, where it is relevant...such as when Bush visited Afghanistan...but one could argue that at some point the threat is SO great that there is no reasonable security protocol to protect against most threats...and thus surprise is the only tactic...I don't think that's the case here and am reasonably confident that Mr. Obama can be reasonably protected regardless of outside knowledge.

There can be no true security, one can only hope to make the commission of an act more costly and difficult than it's worth to the perpetrator. Like taking a charge from Zion.....

[killerleft]

Well of course you got absurd there and made straw arguments I never said...not even close. No one said anything about kumbaya and no intensity. SHEESH. Shots fired. Got it. So I felt compelled to fire back. You didn't merely disagree with me, you mocked me. Maybe it's how we were raised differently. Game on.

I grew up in a household split between Duke and UNC. My parents were part of an 8 person group who went to every single ACC Tournament for the first 30 or 35 years...from tournament number 1, up until 1982, when my mom missed due to a broken leg (and I took her place.) This group of 8 was spearheaded by an Iron Duke...and I don't mean a fund raiser, I mean one of the real "Iron Dukes" from the FB team that was undefeated, untied and un-scored upon until the last few seconds of The Rose Bowl. That group of 8 had Duke, NC and UVa fans. They didn't hate each other's team. That former Iron Duke player did not hate Carolina the way the hate is today. He died in the 80s, and I think he would cringe at today.

The different time was the Heyman era, for a number of reasons, but perhaps this Iron Duke and my parents were lying to me about all of that.

I remember going to the event known as "The Duke State Doubleheaders" around Christmas time in Raleigh...the fans pulled for each other, and the format was a switching of opponents and so Duke and State never played each other directly in this event. (this is not Carolina directly, but just more proof there was indeed a different time.).

I remember going to Reynolds Coliseum when Dean had the Olympic Team Tryouts, and loud cheers of A-C-C rang out... Now it's the SEC that has that cheer, as they don't hate Bama football or UK basketball the way Duke is now hated in the ACC. So the times are different now...very different.

Of course, maybe you can tell Quinn Cook he was a fool for laughing and kidding with Roy during the 2015 game, after the Dean moment at midcourt. Maybe that didn't happen. Maybe it was all made up. Maybe Gminski is an idiot for having a relationship with Dean's Myth. Maybe you should tell him.

Return fire made.

I did read your post wrong. Sorry. You are correct about the players mostly getting along since the sixties, at least. Tyler Hanstravel and Eric Montross may disagree, for some bloody reason.:)

I thought you were talking about the rivalry in general. As a Duke fan growing up in the middle of North Carolina during the sixties, I do not remember a time when Duke fans were on good terms with those lesser blue fans. I didn't like the sanctimonious Dean's Myth, and none of his successors have been to my liking, either. Most in-state fans will agree, I think.

[COYS]

I also think they'll wear Coby White down with Tre and RJ.

If there is an area where Duke has a clear advantage outside of Zion being from another planet, i think this is it. White is turnover prone . . . and he's been more turnover prone against Top 50 competition (per T-Rank). On top of that, he'll be going against one of the best defenses in the country and, more specifically, one of the very best on-ball defenders in Tre. Even if he starts well, I suspect that Tre will be able to harass White into mistakes by the end of the game. Also, Seventh Woods is almost comically bad at holding onto the ball, sporting a 40% turnover percentage against top 50 opponents, so it's not like there's another point guard on the roster who can help spell White.

[Rickshaw]

Hope someone asks obama about the cheating

[FerryFor50]

If there is an area where Duke has a clear advantage outside of Zion being from another planet, i think this is it. White is turnover prone . . . and he's been more turnover prone against Top 50 competition (per T-Rank). On top of that, he'll be going against one of the best defenses in the country and, more specifically, one of the very best on-ball defenders in Tre. Even if he starts well, I suspect that Tre will be able to harass White into mistakes by the end of the game. Also, Seventh Woods is almost comically bad at holding onto the ball, sporting a 40% turnover percentage against top 50 opponents, so it's not like there's another point guard on the roster who can help spell White.

Plus, Coby White grew up a Duke fan.

For all the talk of our freshman finding the moment to be too big, how big is it for UNC's freshman (and arguably their best player this year, alongside Maye and Johnson) to play in this rivalry, with the first game being at Cameron, while he's a Duke fan?


https://abc11.com/video/embed/?pid=5144275

[hallcity]

Any guess where Obama sits? Beside Vince Price? On one of the baselines? Behind one of the benches?

[rasputin]

quarantine buckmire!!!

Send him to Chapel Hell?

[uh_no]

Any guess where Obama sits? Beside Vince Price? On one of the baselines? Behind one of the benches?

almost assuredly on the baseline.

[oldnavy]

If there is an area where Duke has a clear advantage outside of Zion being from another planet, i think this is it. White is turnover prone . . . and he's been more turnover prone against Top 50 competition (per T-Rank). On top of that, he'll be going against one of the best defenses in the country and, more specifically, one of the very best on-ball defenders in Tre. Even if he starts well, I suspect that Tre will be able to harass White into mistakes by the end of the game. Also, Seventh Woods is almost comically bad at holding onto the ball, sporting a 40% turnover percentage against top 50 opponents, so it's not like there's another point guard on the roster who can help spell White.

This is the match up that I think will be the most interesting. White will want to play fast and I think that Tre will "speed" him up even more with his on the ball pressure. Hopefully that will lead to TO's and break away buckets.

[COYS]

This is the match up that I think will be the most interesting. White will want to play fast and I think that Tre will "speed" him up even more with his on the ball pressure. Hopefully that will lead to TO's and break away buckets.

I definitely want to see Tre occupy White while Zion opportunistically sneaks in to steal the ball and add a few SC Top 10 Highlight dunks in the open floor.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I definitely want to see Tre occupy White while Zion opportunistically sneaks in to steal the ball and add a few SC Top 10 Highlight dunks in the open floor.

THIS ^^^ is my favorite Duke play of the season.......hope they run it a lot more! :D

[Phredd3]

I think that the young players won't have an issue being too amped up. I think they actually *thrive* on being amped up - it focuses them better.

Yeah, personally I was kind of hoping they'd be "too amped up" the same way they were in the very first game of the season. :cool:

[duke4ever19]

Flu is a tough opponent. May make this next stretch of two away games even harder

I taught in a middle school for a couple years right out of college, and I could've sworn that all the little common colds and flu bugs would start and spread in the locker rooms and then, like the angel of death, gradually make its way through the rest of the student population.

Oddly enough, I haven't had the flu, or even so much as a common cold in over eight years. I'm not sure what I'm doing right, but I'm fairly certain that I'd come down with something if I spent so much as a week in the petri dish that is middle and high school.

[Pghdukie]

Any word of recruits coming to Cameron tomorrow ?

[sagegrouse]

ESPN reports (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26032466/unc-duke-tickets-approaching-super-bowl-prices-zion-williamson) that Duke-UNC tickets, because of Zion Williamson, have reached the price of Super Bowl tix. Doesn't Zion play in every Duke game?

[Kedsy]

But, truly, this is Duke v Cheaters... all that stuff is out the window.


That's more a commentary on the fact that Duke and UNC are usually both extremely strong teams, and thus are expected to have close games. I would expect if we examined UNCvDuke matchups vs any other matchup, we'd find the deviation from expectation to be about the same.

I don't have "true" relative rankings (using KenPom or some other source), but I have compiled how Duke and UNC have fared based on their relative AP rank. Here's some data:


Since Coach K came to Duke, this is the 68th (!) time that at least one of Duke and UNC have been ranked (AP) in the top 5.

Of those 68 games, the higher-ranked team has a record of 46-22 (67.6% win pct).

Breaking that down further, the higher-ranked team is 24-12 (66.7%) at home; 17-7 (70.8%) on the road; and 5-3 (62.5%) in the ACC tourney.


In the last 20 years, the higher-ranked team is 29-9 (76.3%) overall; 13-5 (72.2%) at home; 12-3 (80.0%) on the road; and 4-1 (80.0%) in the ACC tourney.

In the last 10 years, the higher-ranked team is 12-6 (66.7%) overall; 8-3 (72.7%) at home; 3-2 (60.0%) on the road; and 1-1 (50.0%) in the ACC tourney.


Breaking that down even further, since Coach K has been at Duke, the two teams have played 18 games in which one team was top 5 and the other was top 10 (but not top 5). The higher-ranked team has a record of 10-8 (55.6%) in those games.

In such games, the higher-ranked team is 6-6 (50.0%) at home; 3-2 (60.0%) on the road; and 1-0 (100.0%) in the ACCT.

In the last 20 years of such games, the higher-ranked team is 7-3 (70.0%) overall; 4-2 (66.7%) at home; 2-1 (66.7%) on the road; and 1-0 (100.0%) in the ACCT.

In the last 10 years of such games, the higher-ranked team is 4-2 (66.7%) overall; 2-2 (50.0%) at home; 1-0 (100.0%) on the road; and 1-0 (100.0%) in the ACCT.


Several years ago, I wrote an article for BDN (http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/02/dukecarolina-anything-can-happen-right/) (the byline has since been changed to Mark Watson, but it was me), in which I looked at the win/loss records under various circumstances in the Duke/UNC rivalry and compared those records to the same circumstances in the Duke/Clemson and Duke/Wake Forest "rivalries." The results showed that Duke against UNC is no less predictable than Duke against those other schools.

So, maybe if someone compares actual scores to, e.g., KenPom predictions, the Duke/UNC series will show closer scores than other series not involving hated rivals. Or maybe it won't. Whichever, when it comes to winning and losing, Duke/UNC results are pretty much what you'd expect if you knew the relative ranking of the schools but couldn't see the names on the jerseys. In other words, I agree with uh_no here.

[TKG]

Any guess where Obama sits? Beside Vince Price? On one of the baselines? Behind one of the benches?

Reggie Love told the story of how much Obama loves Roy - so perhaps behind the Cheats bench .

[DevilFalcon]

Coby White is a Duke fan, and it's hilarious. He gets giddy talking about it.

https://twitter.com/jonmalexander/status/1097627491068530689?s=09

[devildeac]

Coby White is a Duke fan, and it's hilarious. He gets giddy talking about it.

https://twitter.com/jonmalexander/status/1097627491068530689?s=09

Maybe he can get a tip-in or two for the good guys during one or both meetings this year. ;)

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Coby White is a Duke fan, and it's hilarious. He gets giddy talking about it.

https://twitter.com/jonmalexander/status/1097627491068530689?s=09
Now THAT is signage material for tomorrow!

Or perhaps a chant of “traitor, traitor...” when he touches the ball.

[Reddevil]

ESPN reports (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26032466/unc-duke-tickets-approaching-super-bowl-prices-zion-williamson) that Duke-UNC tickets, because of Zion Williamson, have reached the price of Super Bowl tix. Doesn't Zion play in every Duke game?

I heard that on ESPN radio on my commute home. Texted it to my dad. He said in 1967 he had 2 books of tickets for all sporting events that cost him $45.

[Devilwin]

Looks like my earlier statement was wrong -- I didn't see the Wake game when I examined the game logs. UNC shot 64% from three against Wake, so I guess they can do it. Hopefully HBCK is right and they drop down into the 30s or at least the 40s for this game.

Just have K tell Zion "no threes". He will then proceed to block all their attempts..

[uh_no]

ESPN reports (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26032466/unc-duke-tickets-approaching-super-bowl-prices-zion-williamson) that Duke-UNC tickets, because of Zion Williamson, have reached the price of Super Bowl tix. Doesn't Zion play in every Duke game?

currently 3k+

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

Coby White is a Duke fan, and it's hilarious. He gets giddy talking about it.

https://twitter.com/jonmalexander/status/1097627491068530689?s=09

Clever, but too late. Too late. Too late to try and make up now and attempt to save his own neck.. He's toast.
Love, Ima

[MChambers]

I don't have "true" relative rankings (using KenPom or some other source), but I have compiled how Duke and UNC have fared based on their relative AP rank. Here's some data:


Since Coach K came to Duke, this is the 68th (!) time that at least one of Duke and UNC have been ranked (AP) in the top 5.

Of those 68 games, the higher-ranked team has a record of 46-22 (67.6% win pct).

Breaking that down further, the higher-ranked team is 24-12 (66.7%) at home; 17-7 (70.8%) on the road; and 5-3 (62.5%) in the ACC tourney.


In the last 20 years, the higher-ranked team is 29-9 (76.3%) overall; 13-5 (72.2%) at home; 12-3 (80.0%) on the road; and 4-1 (80.0%) in the ACC tourney.

In the last 10 years, the higher-ranked team is 12-6 (66.7%) overall; 8-3 (72.7%) at home; 3-2 (60.0%) on the road; and 1-1 (50.0%) in the ACC tourney.


Breaking that down even further, since Coach K has been at Duke, the two teams have played 18 games in which one team was top 5 and the other was top 10 (but not top 5). The higher-ranked team has a record of 10-8 (55.6%) in those games.

In such games, the higher-ranked team is 6-6 (50.0%) at home; 3-2 (60.0%) on the road; and 1-0 (100.0%) in the ACCT.

In the last 20 years of such games, the higher-ranked team is 7-3 (70.0%) overall; 4-2 (66.7%) at home; 2-1 (66.7%) on the road; and 1-0 (100.0%) in the ACCT.

In the last 10 years of such games, the higher-ranked team is 4-2 (66.7%) overall; 2-2 (50.0%) at home; 1-0 (100.0%) on the road; and 1-0 (100.0%) in the ACCT.


Several years ago, I wrote an article for BDN (http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/02/dukecarolina-anything-can-happen-right/) (the byline has since been changed to Mark Watson, but it was me), in which I looked at the win/loss records under various circumstances in the Duke/UNC rivalry and compared those records to the same circumstances in the Duke/Clemson and Duke/Wake Forest "rivalries." The results showed that Duke against UNC is no less predictable than Duke against those other schools.

So, maybe if someone compares actual scores to, e.g., KenPom predictions, the Duke/UNC series will show closer scores than other series not involving hated rivals. Or maybe it won't. Whichever, when it comes to winning and losing, Duke/UNC results are pretty much what you'd expect if you knew the relative ranking of the schools but couldn't see the names on the jerseys. In other words, I agree with uh_no here.

Those are sobering numbers.

[jv001]

Any guess where Obama sits? Beside Vince Price? On one of the baselines? Behind one of the benches?

Send Buckmire up in the stands and let him sit with him. Especially if he's sitting behind the cheat bench. GoDuke!

[jv001]

A packed-in zone could be a break-in-case-of-emergency strategy if Duke happens to be handling UNC easily (which I don't expect), but to start off with, I think UNC will play their usual defense and offense. One reason is because their m2m naturally forces people into 3-pt attempts, anyway. UNC season after season gives up lots of 3-pt attempts, with this season being no exception: 41% of opponent shots come from 3 against UNC, which ranks them 262nd in the country at limiting 3-pt attempts. UNC accomplishes this differently from, say, how UVA does it. Whereas UVA performs what I would call "pre-help" (sinking their wings into the gaps before the ballhandler even penetrates), UNC waits for penetration and then over-helps (imo) off shooters. Zion and RJ will definitely see bodies in the paint at the end of their drives, and sometimes it'll be the wise choice to kick out for open threes. And I don't think we win if we shoot those open threes at a horrible percentage.

I think our chances of making 3s against that cheat defense will be pretty good because as you and others have said, they give up a lot. Most of the time pretty wide open 3s. If our players get their feet set and don't shoot off balance shots, I think we'll do pretty good against them. This could be the game Jack White hits some big 3s because he shouldn't have to rush his shot. GoDuke!

[NSDukeFan]

I'm not sure the data would support that conclusion. Anecdotally it seems right, but humans are awfully bad about attaching undue significance to events at the tail end of the distribution. Since duke is highly rated, almost every loss is either a big upset (when playing a crappy opponent) or in a big game (when playing a good team).

I don't doubt that there is more emotion in certain games, I'm just skeptical that it has a significant impact on the quality of the play and in many cases, is a post-hoc explanation of otherwise inexplicable outcomes which probability would already account for.

I'm sure if we went back and looked at post game threads in many of our losses, in many, at least someone says "well it's an emotional game for them." Did they win because they were emotional? or does it appear that they were emotional because they had a chance to win/won?

The only times that UNC and Duke were expected to be >10 points away in 100 possessions on a neutral court (~7 points margin in the game) in the kenpom era were:
2010: one blowout, and a win by 10 at the dome, pretty much as expected
2003: Duke would be expected to win by a couple points at the dome, and lost by 3.
2002: two massive blowouts

So it seems pretty much every game in the KP era but for 7 or so have been expected to be close, almost all are, and of the ones expected to be "blowouts", most were. There is simply no evidence here that emotion, at least in this series, drives the teams to more equal play.

I find the fact that despite the high emotions, teams continue to execute to their ability the far more impressive outcome.

Sorry, I meant the Carolina games and any losses and some wins tend to be more emotional for the fans. Sorry I didn’t type what I was thinking.

[dukelifer]

If there is an area where Duke has a clear advantage outside of Zion being from another planet, i think this is it. White is turnover prone . . . and he's been more turnover prone against Top 50 competition (per T-Rank). On top of that, he'll be going against one of the best defenses in the country and, more specifically, one of the very best on-ball defenders in Tre. Even if he starts well, I suspect that Tre will be able to harass White into mistakes by the end of the game. Also, Seventh Woods is almost comically bad at holding onto the ball, sporting a 40% turnover percentage against top 50 opponents, so it's not like there's another point guard on the roster who can help spell White.
Turnovers are key. Duke will need to force them to win.

[MChambers]

Color guy doing the Tenn-Vandy game just said Duke wants a half court game tomorrow. Really? Has he soon Duke play?

[UrinalCake]

It is sleeting out here in the Triangle. Them Heels are preparing to be sent to hell!

[slower]

I say Duke wins this by 20+

I'd be completely shocked if this happens. UNC is currently ranked #8. Just. Stop.

As always, with ANY game, all anybody has is speculation about the actual outcome. But to predict a 20-point Duke victory over a Top 10 UNC team is ridiculous. COULD it happen? Sure. WILL it happen? Nobody knows.

It just boggles my mind to see some posters talk about UNC as if they're not much better than a bunch of scrubs at the YMCA. Confidence is great, but gross overconfidence is just asking for trouble.

[moonpie23]

i'll give you Bama and 20 points for the title......

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Color guy doing the Tenn-Vandy game just said Duke wants a half court game tomorrow. Really? Has he soon Duke play?

I've watched some SEC stuff on ESPN this season - their color people are terrible.

[robed deity]

Was it Farnham? I've not found him to be particularly insightful.

[JayZee]

Coby White is a Duke fan, and it's hilarious. He gets giddy talking about it.

https://twitter.com/jonmalexander/status/1097627491068530689?s=09

Wait, what???? That’s awesome.

[MChambers]

Was it Farnham? I've not found him to be particularly insightful.

Yes, that’s the one.

[tteettimes]

We are 9–9 1/2 points fav tomorrow night.....but it’s early yet 😂😂

[uh_no]

I for one, will have approximately 0 productivity today.

[devildeac]

I for one, will have approximately 0 productivity today.

You'll be at the game screaming and that sounds highly productive to me and likely to most readers here, too. Think of the morning and afternoon hours as energy conservation opportunities. ;)

[left_hook_lacey]

Can anyone remember Duke being a -9 point favorite over UNC when both are ranked in the top 10? I think that's saying a lot about this team. Keep in mind, we're 21-5 against the spread this year. I smell a 15-20 point win.

82-50 would be nice too. :)

I keep hearing that UNC is down two players due to "health reasons". Who are they without for this game? I can't seem to find confirmation of that.

[Bluedog]

Can anyone remember Duke being a -9 point favorite over UNC when both are ranked in the top 10? I think that's saying a lot about this team. Keep in mind, we're 21-5 against the spread this year. I smell a 15-20 point win.

82-50 would be nice too. :)

I keep hearing that UNC is down two players due to "health reasons". Who are they without for this game? I can't seem to find confirmation of that.

Little had a slight hand injury but is expected to play. Cam Johnson will be fine too don't worry....just UNC playing tricks.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

In K's pre game comments he mentioned that Jack had three buckets and more minutes in the second half against State than he's had in a while. I'm thinking K is sensing a return to the real Jack. Hope so...timing could not be better.

[devildeac]

Can anyone remember Duke being a -9 point favorite over UNC when both are ranked in the top 10? I think that's saying a lot about this team. Keep in mind, we're 21-5 against the spread this year. I smell a 15-20 point win.

82-50 would be nice too. :)

I keep hearing that UNC is down two players due to "health reasons". Who are they without for this game? I can't seem to find confirmation of that.


Little had a slight hand injury but is expected to play. Cam Johnson will be fine too don't worry...just UNC playing tricks.

Another "invention" by dean's myth-the "mortal" injury with miraculous game-time recovery and "career" performance.

(kidding-mostly)

:rolleyes::mad:

[roywhite]

Another "invention" by dean's myth-the "mortal" injury with miraculous game-time recovery and "career" performance.

(kidding-mostly)

:rolleyes::mad:

Phil Ford comes to mind, a virtual Lazarus. Doubtful for the game according to El-Deano, and he comes out and plays great.

[UrinalCake]

Little had a slight hand injury but is expected to play. Cam Johnson will be fine too don't worry...just UNC playing tricks.

Leaky Black and Sterling Manley have both been out for several weeks. They are bench players but they do play minutes and provide some depth. It would be like if we were without Goldwire and DeLaurier.

Little had a wrist injury two games ago against UVA, and in the most recent game against Wake hurt his chest trying to take a charge. He was held out of the second half as a precautionary measure, but it is unknown whether he is 100%. Johnson missed a few minutes of the UVA but is now healthy AFAIK.

[MChambers]

Can anyone remember Duke being a -9 point favorite over UNC when both are ranked in the top 10? I think that's saying a lot about this team. Keep in mind, we're 21-5 against the spread this year. I smell a 15-20 point win.

82-50 would be nice too. :)

I keep hearing that UNC is down two players due to "health reasons". Who are they without for this game? I can't seem to find confirmation of that.

I think Sterling Manley and Leaky Black may be out.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I think Sterling Manley and Leaky Black may be out.

But the key is this...is Platek healthy? I'm hoping for big minutes tonight from Platek.

[Indoor66]

Another "invention" by dean's myth-the "mortal" injury with miraculous game-time recovery and "career" performance.

(kidding-mostly)

:rolleyes::mad:

Dean studied under Willis Reed.

[du_bb1]

In a portent of things to come--Duke softball beat those who shall not be named 8-0

[wilson]

In a portent of things to come--Duke softball beat those who shall not be named 8-0The score widget on GoDuke.com doesn't make it very clear, but yesterday's win actually came over NC Central (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=211791617).

[moonpie23]

Little had a slight hand injury but is expected to play. .

sooooo, we know which hand to be slapping at, right?

man, the hype on this game is lit....

[DavidBenAkiva]

I think Sterling Manley and Leaky Black may be out.

Manley and Black have not been practicing and are likely out for the game tonight. Little had a bum ankle in the UVA game but played 11 minutes against Wake Forest. Johnson has had minor ankle injuries a couple times this season, if I recall correctly. Like a lot of teams this time of year, UNC is dealing with a few injuries.

Their starters all appear near 100% but the depth behind them is somewhat questionable. Little is the 6th man but Roy loves to go deep into his bench. We should expect to see a good amount of Seventh Woods, Brandon Robinson, and maybe a little of Brandon Huffman and Andrew Platek. Little and Robinson are effective and would start at almost every other school. Woods has been a disappointment in Chapel Hill while Huffman and Platek will only offer a few minutes of fresh legs and breathing time for the rest of the rotation. I don't think Manley and Black are major difference makers, but it does cut into the options that Roy has to match up with this Duke team. In sum, the injury situation is a minor advantage for Duke.

[du_bb1]

The score widget on GoDuke.com doesn't make it very clear, but yesterday's win actually came over NC Central (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=211791617).

thanks for the correction-need to research better

[CDu]

Leaky Black and Sterling Manley have both been out for several weeks. They are bench players but they do play minutes and provide some depth. It would be like if we were without Goldwire and DeLaurier.

Little had a wrist injury two games ago against UVA, and in the most recent game against Wake hurt his chest trying to take a charge. He was held out of the second half as a precautionary measure, but it is unknown whether he is 100%. Johnson missed a few minutes of the UVA but is now healthy AFAIK.

Minor edit, but it was an ankle injury against UVa.

[rolm]

The (former) President is coming tonight.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/02/20/obama-reportedly-may-join-madness-duke-north-carolina-game/?utm_term=.82f48f01d321

[BandAlum83]

quarantine buckmire!!!

Do the players get Flu shots every year?

[BandAlum83]

I don't have "true" relative rankings (using KenPom or some other source), but I have compiled how Duke and UNC have fared based on their relative AP rank. Here's some data:


Since Coach K came to Duke, this is the 68th (!) time that at least one of Duke and UNC have been ranked (AP) in the top 5.

Of those 68 games, the higher-ranked team has a record of 46-22 (67.6% win pct).

Breaking that down further, the higher-ranked team is 24-12 (66.7%) at home; 17-7 (70.8%) on the road; and 5-3 (62.5%) in the ACC tourney.


In the last 20 years, the higher-ranked team is 29-9 (76.3%) overall; 13-5 (72.2%) at home; 12-3 (80.0%) on the road; and 4-1 (80.0%) in the ACC tourney.

In the last 10 years, the higher-ranked team is 12-6 (66.7%) overall; 8-3 (72.7%) at home; 3-2 (60.0%) on the road; and 1-1 (50.0%) in the ACC tourney.


Breaking that down even further, since Coach K has been at Duke, the two teams have played 18 games in which one team was top 5 and the other was top 10 (but not top 5). The higher-ranked team has a record of 10-8 (55.6%) in those games.

In such games, the higher-ranked team is 6-6 (50.0%) at home; 3-2 (60.0%) on the road; and 1-0 (100.0%) in the ACCT.

In the last 20 years of such games, the higher-ranked team is 7-3 (70.0%) overall; 4-2 (66.7%) at home; 2-1 (66.7%) on the road; and 1-0 (100.0%) in the ACCT.

In the last 10 years of such games, the higher-ranked team is 4-2 (66.7%) overall; 2-2 (50.0%) at home; 1-0 (100.0%) on the road; and 1-0 (100.0%) in the ACCT.


Several years ago, I wrote an article for BDN (http://bluedevilnation.net/2013/02/dukecarolina-anything-can-happen-right/) (the byline has since been changed to Mark Watson, but it was me), in which I looked at the win/loss records under various circumstances in the Duke/UNC rivalry and compared those records to the same circumstances in the Duke/Clemson and Duke/Wake Forest "rivalries." The results showed that Duke against UNC is no less predictable than Duke against those other schools.

So, maybe if someone compares actual scores to, e.g., KenPom predictions, the Duke/UNC series will show closer scores than other series not involving hated rivals. Or maybe it won't. Whichever, when it comes to winning and losing, Duke/UNC results are pretty much what you'd expect if you knew the relative ranking of the schools but couldn't see the names on the jerseys. In other words, I agree with uh_no here.

So from my vantage point, not using statistical glasses, what I gather from this post is that we have about a 70% chance of winning this game.

[DukeDevilDeb]

Do the players get Flu shots every year?

Now, whether the makers of the flu shots correctly selects which type of flu they prevent is another unanswerable question.

GTHC!!!!

[sagegrouse]

He spoke last night in Oakland. Fortunately, he won't have any miscreants to worry about tonight. :eek::rolleyes:

From James Hohmann's blog in the WaPo:


Barack Obama criticizes pop culture for promoting the wrong values to young men
Town Hall with President Barack Obama and Steph Curry

THE BIG IDEA: Barack Obama pleaded with a crowd of teenagers on Tuesday night to defy stereotypes about what it means to be a man of color.

“We live in a culture where our worth is measured by how much money we have and how famous we are,” the former president lamented in Oakland, Calif. “I will tell you, at the end of the day, the thing that will give you confidence is not that. I know a lot of rich people that are all messed up!”

Joined onstage by Golden State Warriors basketball star Steph Curry, Obama decried bullying and selfishness while imploring young people who are involved in his My Brother’s Keeper initiative to pursue causes greater than themselves. He explained the concept of self-worth and touted the virtues of being sensitive to other people’s feelings. He criticized materialism and encouraged monogamy.

[MChambers]

Do the players get Flu shots every year?

If Buckmire is throwing up, it's likely not the respiratory flu for which the shots are designed. Instead, it's some sort of intestinal microbe. No shots for that.

[Rich]

If Buckmire is throwing up, it's likely not the respiratory flu for which the shots are designed. Instead, it's some sort of intestinal microbe. No shots for that.

In my house we call that a stomach bug and based on my experience and expertise (both as a human and as a parent), the more violent the bug the more quickly it subsides. It's usually a 24-48 hour thing, YMMV.

[Kedsy]

Little and Robinson are effective and would start at almost every other school.

Little, yeah, but Brandon Robinson? He's a junior who is playing 12 mpg at UNC (and has never averaged more than that in three seasons). He's shooting the ball well this year, in limited attempts, but doesn't do much else. Among the top half of high major schools, where would he start? If you were the captain of your pickup team, who would you take, Robinson or Alex O'Connell?

[CDu]

Little, yeah, but Brandon Robinson? He's a junior who is playing 12 mpg at UNC (and has never averaged more than that in three seasons). He's shooting the ball well this year, in limited attempts, but doesn't do much else. Among the top half of high major schools, where would he start? If you were the captain of your pickup team, who would you take, Robinson or Alex O'Connell?

Eh, Robinson is basically O'Connell. He was a top-65 recruit in 2016 (O'Connell was a top-70 recruit in 2017). Both are skinny, good shooters with some athleticism, but haven't really offered anything at the high major level aside from shooting.

I think each would start at most other D1 schools. But they wouldn't start at most Power-5 schools. At a mid-major or low-major? They'd probably be star players. So, "almost every other school" is certainly an overstatement. But "300 schools out of 351?" That's probably about right.

For example, take Jordan Tucker. Couldn't crack the rotation at all at Duke. Now a starter for Butler.

[devildeac]

Dean studied under Willis Reed.

I've never heard/read anything about Willis Reed being a cheater. :o

[sagegrouse]

Eh, Robinson is basically O'Connell. He was a top-65 recruit in 2016 (O'Connell was a top-70 recruit in 2017). Both are skinny, good shooters with some athleticism, but haven't really offered anything at the high major level aside from shooting.

I think each would start at most other D1 schools. But they wouldn't start at most Power-5 schools. At a mid-major or low-major? They'd probably be star players. So, "almost every other school" is certainly an overstatement. But "300 schools out of 351?" That's probably about right.

For example, take Jordan Tucker. Couldn't crack the rotation at all at Duke. Now a starter for Butler.

I think AOC has a bright future at Duke in hoops. (That's Alex, not Ocasio-Cortez).

[devildeac]

He spoke last night in Oakland. Fortunately, he won't have any miscreants to worry about tonight. :eek::rolleyes:

From James Hohmann's blog in the WaPo:

Wait, we're still playing the cheats, right?

[CDu]

I think AOC has a bright future at Duke in hoops. (That's Alex, not Ocasio-Cortez).

Maybe. It probably depends on whether or not Duke adds a PG to next year's class. If they do, he's probably a backup again as a junior, much like Robinson is for UNC.

[wobatus]

Eh, Robinson is basically O'Connell. He was a top-65 recruit in 2016 (O'Connell was a top-70 recruit in 2017). Both are skinny, good shooters with some athleticism, but haven't really offered anything at the high major level aside from shooting.

I think each would start at most other D1 schools. But they wouldn't start at most Power-5 schools. At a mid-major or low-major? They'd probably be star players. So, "almost every other school" is certainly an overstatement. But "300 schools out of 351?" That's probably about right.

For example, take Jordan Tucker. Couldn't crack the rotation at all at Duke. Now a starter for Butler.

I don't know how many but Robinson and O'Connell would start at a lot of power 5 schools. Pac-12 is bad. Washington St, Cal, etc., and they'd probably start for Utah, Colorado, etc. The best team, Washington, I think has 4 RSCI top 100 guys. UCLA and USC have a bunch but aren't that good.

SEC, Vandy, Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss (which is good, but no RSCI top 100 players).

[Stray Gator]

Another "invention" by dean's myth-the "mortal" injury with miraculous game-time recovery and "career" performance.

(kidding-mostly)

:rolleyes::mad:

The classic example was the 1998 ACC Tournament final between UNC and Duke, in which Antawn Jamison, after reportedly being sidelined with a severe injury, somehow managed to disconnect the life support equipment and drag himself out of the Intensive Care Unit to score 22 points and collect 18 rebounds in an 83-68 UNC win -- thereby perpetuating the legend of Dean's Mysterious Magic Healing Dust. Those who have a long familiarity with the rivalry are accustomed to the recurring phenomenon of UNC and its loyalists letting word leak out prior to the Duke game that some of their players are suffering from assorted maladies.

[CDu]

I don't know how many but Robinson and O'Connell would start at a lot of power 5 schools. Pac-12 is bad. Washington St, Cal, etc., and they'd probably start for Utah, Colorado, etc. The best team, Washington, I think has 4 RSCI top 100 guys. UCLA and USC have a bunch but aren't that good.

SEC, Vandy, Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss (which is good, but no RSCI top 100 players).

Right. Either Robinson or O'Connell would start at BC, or at least play starter's minutes off the bench. They'd be getting major minutes at Notre Dame and Wake too. Maybe Georgia Tech. Hell, even look at Louisville's lack of quality at guard. Now, most of the ACC has pretty good talent, sure. But I'd venture that they'd start at half of the Pac-12 schools, most of the Big East schools, and some of the Big 10 and Big 12 schools. So I'd feel pretty comfortable saying they would start at 300 of the 351 schools in D1. Maybe more. We just happen to be spoiled.

[CDu]

The classic example was the 1998 ACC Tournament final between UNC and Duke, in which Antawn Jamison, after reportedly being sidelined with a severe injury, somehow managed to disconnect the life support equipment and drag himself out of the Intensive Care Unit to score 22 points and collect 18 rebounds in an 83-68 UNC win -- thereby perpetuating the legend of Dean's Mysterious Magic Healing Dust. Those who have a long familiarity with the rivalry are accustomed to the recurring phenomenon of UNC and its loyalists letting word leak out prior to the Duke game that some of their players are suffering from assorted maladies.

Especially impressive given that Dean was retired by then! ;)

[Kedsy]

Eh, Robinson is basically O'Connell. He was a top-65 recruit in 2016 (O'Connell was a top-70 recruit in 2017). Both are skinny, good shooters with some athleticism, but haven't really offered anything at the high major level aside from shooting.

I think each would start at most other D1 schools. But they wouldn't start at most Power-5 schools. At a mid-major or low-major? They'd probably be star players. So, "almost every other school" is certainly an overstatement. But "300 schools out of 351?" That's probably about right.

For example, take Jordan Tucker. Couldn't crack the rotation at all at Duke. Now a starter for Butler.

Yes, I agree with all of this. Personally, I think O'Connell is a little better than Robinson, and he's played more as a freshman/sophomore (10.4 mpg/12.4 mpg) for a coach with a short rotation than Robinson did (7.8 mpg/8.6mpg) as a fr/so for a coach with a long rotation. But, yeah, basically the same player. However, I wouldn't say Alex would start at almost every other school. Like you say, maybe the lesser high-major schools as well as mid-majors and low-majors. If that was point DBA was trying to make, I apologize for the digression. The way I read it, he was suggesting Robinson offered more for them than the corresponding guy on our bench (probably Alex) offered for us, and I don't think that's true.

[Stray Gator]

Especially impressive given that Dean was retired by then! ;)

Technically, Dean was retired. But keep in mind that he was still occupying an office just down the hall from his longtime-assistant-and-appointed-successor, Bill Guthridge, who certainly knew where to find a supply of the Magic Healing Dust when needed. :cool:

[DU82]

thanks for the correction-need to research better

NCCU is an actual university in North Carolina.

[-jk]

Fun vid from a guy I know...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AMMW6YFBYG0

-jk

[DavidBenAkiva]

Seeing on twitter a few others that will be in the stands tonight, besides 44.

Todd "won me Fantasy in 2017" Gurley III - a big-time Duke fan btw
Vernon Carey, Jr.
Several football recruits

[Rich]

Dean studied under Willis Reed.


I've never heard/read anything about Willis Reed being a cheater. :o

Willis can't Reed, clap clap clap

[devildeac]

The classic example was the 1998 ACC Tournament final between UNC and Duke, in which Antawn Jamison, after reportedly being sidelined with a severe injury, somehow managed to disconnect the life support equipment and drag himself out of the Intensive Care Unit to score 22 points and collect 18 rebounds in an 83-68 UNC win -- thereby perpetuating the legend of Dean's Mysterious Magic Healing Dust. Those who have a long familiarity with the rivalry are accustomed to the recurring phenomenon of UNC and its loyalists letting word leak out prior to the Duke game that some of their players are suffering from assorted maladies.

A sincere thank you for this example.

[devildeac]

Willis can't Reed, clap clap clap

"But he had better SAT scores than Ferry and Laettner." (or something like that/paraphrased, but, nonetheless, as OPK often quotes, "ES, DS, ES.")

[Troublemaker]

I'll take a stab at it. What you are remembering in your gut is what happens in odd-numbered years like this one when the first Duke-UNC game is in Cameron: UNC seems to hold a lead in the second half of that first game in Cameron, and Duke has to make a run to come back and win.

In 2011, UNC was up 43-29 at halftime (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=310400150). Watching Nolan lead the second half comeback was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-7v_WAbDbE).

In 2013, UNC led 38-31 at 17:04 in the 2nd half (http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=206391966). Watching Seth and company rally (and Mama Curry dancing in the stands) was great, though.Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdN42xivYEQ).

In 2015 (a championship season, obviously), UNC led by ten(!) 77-67 with only 3:22 left in the game (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400587989). Watching Tyus and company storm back was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmCGhHbtQK4).

In 2017, UNC led 64-59 with 11:16 left in the 2nd half (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/playbyplay?gameId=400915431). Watching Grayson light them up down the stretch was great, though. Highlights here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFTNxPByKCM).

(Note: I probably could've gone back further back with this, but then we're getting into the pre-2010 era when UNC was dominant in recruiting in combination with keeping players around for a long time. I think the recent past when Duke was either even or ahead in talent is more relevant.)

A couple more examples from the Guthridge-era when Duke held the edge on UNC in recruiting as we have recently. 1999 and 2001 are two more odd-numbered years (i.e. years in which the first Duke-UNC game was at Duke). I would say the difference between Duke and UNC in those two seasons is greater than the difference between Duke and UNC this season. In 2001, a championship season, we straight up just lost to UNC that first game in Cameron (but got revenge later in the Dean Dome and the ACCT).

And in 1999, Duke's most dominant year ever, the game in Cameron was by far the most competitive of the Duke's 3-0 sweep of UNC. I unfortunately can't find the play by play or highlights of that game but according to an old game story (https://www.upi.com/Archives/1999/01/27/Duke-89-North-Carolina-77/3982917413200/), "Duke broke open the game with a 12-1 run, building a 77- 69 lead with 4:23 to go on a free throw by Elton Brand." Which means UNC led 68-65 pretty deep into the second half. Going by memory, I know for sure UNC took a lead early in the second half. I think Coach K had to call timeout after Haywood make a hook shot, and I was very nervous at that point. (Silly in hindsight, perhaps, but the feeling that Duke 99 could lose to UNC in Cameron was very real at that point.)

More and more, I'm thinking UNC will probably enjoy a lead in the second half tonight, and at a certain point, Duke fans will think we're going to lose. But hopefully, as in most of these examples, Duke will have the lead when it matters most -- at the final buzzer. (I think if we're looking for domination, the game in Chapel Hill is more likely to be the game.)

[robed deity]

A couple more examples from the Guthridge-era when Duke held the edge on UNC in recruiting as we have recently. 1999 and 2001 are two more odd-numbered years (i.e. years in which the first Duke-UNC game was at Duke). I would say the difference between Duke and UNC in those two seasons is greater than the difference between Duke and UNC this season. In 2001, a championship season, we straight up just lost to UNC that first game in Cameron (but got revenge later in the Dean Dome and the ACCT).

And in 1999, Duke's most dominant year ever, the game in Cameron was by far the most competitive of the Duke's 3-0 sweep of UNC. I unfortunately can't find the play by play or highlights of that game but according to an old game story (https://www.upi.com/Archives/1999/01/27/Duke-89-North-Carolina-77/3982917413200/), "Duke broke open the game with a 12-1 run, building a 77- 69 lead with 4:23 to go on a free throw by Elton Brand." Which means UNC led 68-65 pretty deep into the second half. Going by memory, I know for sure UNC took a lead early in the second half. I think Coach K had to call timeout after Haywood make a hook shot, and I was very nervous at that point. (Silly in hindsight, perhaps, but the feeling that Duke 99 could lose to UNC in Cameron was very real at that point.)

More and more, I'm thinking UNC will probably enjoy a lead in the second half tonight, and at a certain point, Duke fans will think we're going to lose. But hopefully, as in most of these examples, Duke will have the lead when it matters most -- at the final buzzer. (I think if we're looking for domination, the game in Chapel Hill is more likely to be the game.)

Yeah, this might explain why I think it won't be easy. Regarding the '99 game in particular, I was unable to watch the game and remember being disappointed when seeing the final score. That seems ridiculous, but that's how dominant that team was and how confident I was in a blowout. The blowout, of course, would come a few weeks later in the Smith center.
I don't know if it's the hype, getting used to UNC's style, the crowd maybe working AGAINST Duke or what, but Duke never comes out firing on all cylinders in these first games in Cameron.

[Troublemaker]

I think they actually *thrive* on being amped up - it focuses them better. Remember RJ in the UVA game? Zion anytime the opponent tries to challenge him physically?


Yeah, personally I was kind of hoping they'd be "too amped up" the same way they were in the very first game of the season. :cool:

It's a bit different when you play your main rival, though. Also, Duke was the underdog against UK and @UVA (or if we're talking about the UVA game in Cameron, technically Duke was the slight favorite by Vegas, but most people were picking us to lose with Tre out.) Tonight, Duke is a big favorite, which is psychologically different. Duke hasn't been tight yet this season but we might be tonight, and I expect UNC to play loose and with nothing to lose. Trust me, I'd rather be in this situation than the opposite (UNC a big favorite), but there can be drawbacks. It's a lot of pressure knowing that your schoolmates have been tenting for weeks waiting to celebrate a W tonight against UNC. It's also pressure knowing that as tremendous a season as Duke's had so far, it puts a real damper on it (at least temporarily) to lose to UNC at home. For the first time this season, our team might play with a sense that there's something to lose.

The good news is that if we can get the "W" tonight, the pressure flips onto UNC for the game in Chapel Hill. Don't get swept, don't lose on Senior Day for Maye / Johnson / Williams, etc.