MBB: Duke at Virginia (Sat, Feb 9, 6pm ET, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Troublemaker]

Big game.

Put your thoughts in this thread.

[jv001]

I hope the team is taking lot's of 3 point shots in practice this week. I hope every 3 is taken within the flow of the game. No off balanced shots from out there. I don't think the Hoos will zone us, so Zion should get some shots at the rim if we execute the offense. We can win this game with Tre back at or near 100%. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

Yeah - I don't actually think anything that happened in the first game means much for this one. Duke played SUCH a different defensive style (switching 1-5) that it took us completely out of our normal offense. They could try that again, but it's just going to end with Tre isolated on Diakite in the post. Maybe you guys have confidence in that matchup, but I like it a TON as a UVA fan to force Duke to stop all the switches, which would allow us to get Guy and Jerome free for decent looks coming off of those curl and pin-down screens. As crazy as it sounds (and I believe like you guys do that Jones is one of the premier defenders in the nation), his return might not be a massive boost to your defense overall, which forced us to play ISO- ball the entire first contest.

Whatever happens, I expect an awesome game and wouldn't be surprised in the least to see EITHER team walk away with the W. I think the two squads are incredibly even when playing their "A" game (at THIS point of the season anyway... we have some room to improve, but I'd acknowledge Duke has a notch or two MORE room to improve and very well could be able to separate from us by the end of the season).

Would you *really* be all that comfortable running the offense thru Diakite? Remember, Duke doesn't have to stand around and watch him post up Tre. We can attack Diakite with double-teams and try to force a turnover. Diakite has 0 assists in ACC play this season, and his annual assist rate reads 2.7, 2.0, and 3.5, which is low even for big men. (For example, Duke has two junior big men as well that are not known for their passing. But Marques has career rates of 2.2, 7.3, and 4.5 while Javin has 2.0, 5.9, 5.3.) Do you trust Diakite to make the right play against all of Duke's lengthy arms double-teaming him?

That said, Coach K might very well be advised to change the switch-everything scheme (or at least be prepared to do so) since Bennett has a full week to prepare; this is UVA's bye week.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I hope we don't feel the need to "prove" we can hit outside shots. If we can make 2 or 3 in the first half out of 9 or 10, I'm fine. Let's just not shoot 16 in the first half trying to make one or two more. Our inside game is so much more effective.

If we play our game and they play theirs, I think we win.

[jv001]

Would you *really* be all that comfortable running the offense thru Diakite? Remember, Duke doesn't have to stand around and watch him post up Tre. We can attack Diakite with double-teams and try to force a turnover. Diakite has 0 assists in ACC play this season, and his annual assist rate reads 2.7, 2.0, and 3.5, which is low even for big men. (For example, Duke has two junior big men as well that are not known for their passing. But Marques has career rates of 2.2, 7.3, and 4.5 while Javin has 2.0, 5.9, 5.3.) Do you trust Diakite to make the right play against all of Duke's lengthy arms double-teaming him?

That said, Coach K might very well be advised to change the switch-everything scheme (or at least be prepared to do so) since Bennett has a full week to prepare; this is UVA's bye week.

I started to say, how convenient but then it might work against the Hoos. They have been on a roll for a while and the time off might work against them. Well, at least that's what I'm hoping for. I'll say this and then duck, maybe Coach works on our zone defense coming into this game. I'm not saying play the Zone as our main defense, just use it to throw their offense off if they're killing our man2man. GoDuke!

[CameronDuke]

Ty Jerome missed the Miami game with a sprained back last Saturday. His status is not known for the game Saturday vs Duke but I bet and hope he plays. Similar to the first game where Tre was injured, I want to see both teams at full strength. I bet Jerome plays.

I think having Tre back for this one will hopefully help Duke force more turnovers at the point of attack. I think Tre can get into Jerome and Clark's pockets and generate a few turnovers leading to fast break transition baskets for Duke which may be the slight difference in the game. Zion is starting to get a steal or two a game it seems now by doubling the point guard from the weak side when Tre is applying immense ball pressure at the top of the key when he crosses halfcourt and getting run out dunks.

[CDu]

Would you *really* be all that comfortable running the offense thru Diakite? Remember, Duke doesn't have to stand around and watch him post up Tre. We can attack Diakite with double-teams and try to force a turnover. Diakite has 0 assists in ACC play this season, and his annual assist rate reads 2.7, 2.0, and 3.5, which is low even for big men. (For example, Duke has two junior big men as well that are not known for their passing. But Marques has career rates of 2.2, 7.3, and 4.5 while Javin has 2.0, 5.9, 5.3.) Do you trust Diakite to make the right play against all of Duke's lengthy arms double-teaming him?

That said, Coach K might very well be advised to change the switch-everything scheme (or at least be prepared to do so) since Bennett has a full week to prepare; this is UVA's bye week.

Yeah, I'll gladly take UVa trying to post up Tre Jones using Diakite over trying to run what they actually do well.

[jv001]

Yeah, I'll gladly take UVa trying to post up Tre Jones using Diakite over trying to run what they actually do well.

I'm more worried about Tre getting switched off onto Hunter. He's a good player that can go inside or outside. GoDuke!

[CDu]

Copied over from the first UVa game since not much has changed for them:

UVa is a terrific team. They are extremely well-coached, extremely disciplined, extremely experienced, and now have a fair amount of talent on the court as well. It's not a good time to be facing them without our PG and perhaps without (or possibly with a limited) Reddish as well. But, such appears to be the case. So, time to make lemonade.

UVa is methodical. They are patient on both ends, and make every possession count. On defense, they do everything at an elite level except block shots and force turnovers. They run the pack line defense, and Bennett has yet another group of stout players to run it to perfection. It's a frustrating defense designed to protect the paint and minimize easy looks. Generally speaking, the weakness of the pack line is 3pt shooting. Which is, unfortunately, not our strength. To beat them, we'll need to be well organized and pick our spots and find good shots. Or, we'll need to beat them in transition. Which is, of course, hard to do when they don't turn it over at all.

On offense, UVa shoots extremely well from 3 and from the FT line. They take good shots, and they rarely turn it over. They slow the game down to maximize their defensive presence, but they still get it done efficiently on offense. This will be roughly the toughest game we face short of a deep tourney run. They are no joke. We played terrific basketball to beat them last time. It will take a similar effort if not better this time.

Centers: Jack Salt (6'10", 250lb fifth-year senior from New Zealand) is the starting center. Salt is a big, rugged, super-strong, but entirely unskilled (offensively) big. He rebounds well offensively, and is more of a positional defender. He knows his role, and makes no effort to step outside of it. Salt will commit his fair share of fouls (2.5 per 20 mpg), but that's okay because he's not asked to play 30+ mpg. Jay Huff (7'1", 230lb redshirt sophomore) is the backup center. Huff is a terrific rebounder and shotblocker, and also has nice shooting range. That said, he plays fairly sparingly (~10mpg).

Forwards: Mamadi Diakite (6'9", 225lb redshirt junior from Guinea) is the starter. Diakite is a solid shotblocker and okay rebounder, with a not terrible jumpshot. He's not the most fluid with the ball in his hands though, and like Salt he doesn't try to force things on offense. But he plays his role solidly. Braxton Key (6'8", 225lb junior transfer from Alabama) is the primary option off the bench in this role. Key is a terrific rebounder and has good shooting range. He's quite capable of putting up big point totals as the Hoos' sixth man.

Wings: DeAndre Hunter (6'7", 225lb redshirt sophomore) is one of two headliners here for the Wahoos. Hunter had a breakout season in the second half of last year as a second-year freshman. But he chose to return to school and UVa appreciates that. Hunter has continued how he finished last year, and is deserving of a spot on the All-ACC team. He's extremely athletic, extremely strong, versatile defensively, and can score at all three levels offensively. He'll be playing in the NBA next year almost certainly. Alongside Hunter is the other big name in Kyle Guy (6'2", 175lb junior). Guy has long since dropped the man bun, but his game hasn't dropped off at all. He's electric offensively: a terrific leaper, good ballhandler, and an elite shooter. He's unfortunately undersized for his natural position (SG), so his NBA prospects may be a bit more limited. But he's a first-team All-ACC level of player. Just an absolute stud scorer. He will play as much as his legs can handle.

Guards: Ty Jerome (6'5", 195lb junior) runs the show. Jerome is a stout defender, very physical despite not necessarily being overly athletic (not that he's an athletic liability, just that he's not explosive like Hunter and Guy). Jerome is a steady hand as a point guard, crafty enough to get his shot in tough spots. He's not really a break-you-down PG, but he is a terrific distributor and game manager. Jerome is also a fantastic shooter. He and Guy work to make the offense go, and he Guy and Hunter take the VAST majority of the shots for UVa. Kihei Clark (5'9", 155lb freshman) is the backup PG. Despite a few UVa folks suggesting that Clark wouldn't play unless Jones or Goldwire did, he played his usual allotment of minutes in the first game as should have been expected. So there should be no question he'll see the floor significantly this time around with Jones back. Clark is a LITTLE fella, but he's lightning quick and a dynamo with the ball in his hands. His size really limits him overall, but he's a pesky presence on D when he is in there. Jerome will often move off-ball alongside Clark as well.

The Hoos play a 7.5 man rotation, and will generally play smaller whenever Salt is out. They slow the pace, which keeps them out of serious foul trouble most of the time. It will be a meatgrinder of a game for us. Hopefully our young team finds themselves up to the challenge!

[Reddevil]

I started to say, how convenient but then it might work against the Hoos. They have been on a roll for a while and the time off might work against them. Well, at least that's what I'm hoping for. I'll say this and then duck, maybe Coach works on our zone defense coming into this game. I'm not saying play the Zone as our main defense, just use it to throw their offense off if they're killing our man2man. GoDuke!

I like the zone as a change of pace against UVA. Now that Jones is back they will see a much different D than the first game just because they will have to start their sets further back and there will be ball pressure. I do hope they remember that they beat the Hoos the first time by attacking the rim. They passed up a bunch of open outside looks to get it inside to RJ and Zion. Those two are uniquely capable of penetrating their lane clogging defense. Of course if the good guys do hit some shots from outside - forget about it. This will be a real battle for 40 minutes. No slow start this time fellas. Get after 'em!

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

Gonna be awfully hard to beat the Hoos three times. I wouldn't mind if we lost this one and saved the third one for the tourney. It's all practice until March.
Love, Ima

[Troublemaker]

I like the zone as a change of pace against UVA. Now that Jones is back they will see a much different D than the first game just because they will have to start their sets further back and there will be ball pressure. I do hope they remember that they beat the Hoos the first time by attacking the rim. They passed up a bunch of open outside looks to get it inside to RJ and Zion. Those two are uniquely capable of penetrating their lane clogging defense. Of course if the good guys do hit some shots from outside - forget about it. This will be a real battle for 40 minutes. No slow start this time fellas. Get after 'em!

I think it's going to be much tougher to score inside this time around (although I agree we should try). Bennett was very unhappy with their defense last time around, and he has a week to prepare. I expect the Pack Line to be even tighter than usual, and Duke probably *will* have to hit outside shots at a good rate to win this road game.

[Troublemaker]

Gonna be awfully hard to beat the Hoos three times. I wouldn't mind if we lost this one and saved the third one for the tourney. It's all practice until March.
Love, Ima

Let's sweep them, get the #1 seed (both ACCT and NCAAT), and maybe we won't have to play them again this season. In the ACCT, we probably can't meet them until the championship game. And in the NCAAT, the earliest we could meet them is in the Final Four.

[CDu]

I think it's going to be much tougher to score inside this time around (although I agree we should try). Bennett was very unhappy with their defense last time around, and he has a week to prepare. I expect the Pack Line to be even tighter than usual, and Duke probably *will* have to hit outside shots at a good rate to win this road game.

Yeah, the one down side of Tre Jones being back is that it makes us a worse shooting team. His absence meant more minutes for White and O'Connell, both of whom are better shooters. Against a team that doesn't turn it over and plays a well-organized defense, that's a potential area for concern.

Hopefully Jones can help offset that with better passing and forcing a turnover or two more to offset that. He's been obviously a fantastic player for us, but I do wonder if his limitations get exposed against a very disciplined, organized team like UVa. We'll see.

[fuse]

This game is playing with house money.
If we win, I think it is a great barometer for the team’s toughness.

UVa is a great team, and methodical.
There is a difference between being methodical, playing at your own pace, and not being able to initiate your offense and rushing at the end of the shot clock.
This is where Tre can be a huge impact on the game.

I expect another great game with a close score that either team will be capable of earning the “W”.

[robed deity]

I like the trajectory of Reddish right now. I'll predict RJ struggles a bit more this time around and Cam comes up with some big shots. Zion will be Zion, and Duke ekes another out. I also like that they haven't experienced Tre playing d. Gotta think that'll at least count for something.

[budwom]

Yeah, the one down side of Tre Jones being back is that it makes us a worse shooting team. His absence meant more minutes for White and O'Connell, both of whom are better shooters. Against a team that doesn't turn it over and plays a well-organized defense, that's a potential area for concern.

Hopefully Jones can help offset that with better passing and forcing a turnover or two more to offset that. He's been obviously a fantastic player for us, but I do wonder if his limitations get exposed against a very disciplined, organized team like UVa. We'll see.

Not sure I agree about White being a better shooter right now, given his prolonged slump...I think it was Greenberg who actually made a good point about Duke possibly not switching every time with Jones back so he can maintain pressure on the ball..I guess we'll see. I can see a bunch of time for White in this game given his toughness...not so much for O'Connell unless he's needed as a scoring spark (possible)...his defense still needs work.

[UrinalCake]

Even though the switch-everything defense worked so well in the first game, I actually hope we return to more of a straight M2M now that Tre is back. Bolden did a commendable job when he got switched onto a guard (which was clearly UVA's strategy) but I don't think it is sustainable to have him do that for a whole game. And as others have alluded, Tre is more of a mismatch himself when he gets switched onto a bigger player. So I think we switch the wings (Barrett/Zion/Cam/Alex/Jack) but try to keep Jones on his man and use Bolden in a hedge-and-recover mode when defending the ball screens. It does open up the possibility of UVA getting some open threes (which K really worked hard to take away in the first game) but it's better than the alternative of having Bolden constantly guarding Guy or Jerome on the perimeter.

Our offense will also likely look different. Without Jones we just let RJ and Zion go one on one. I think we'll need some more ball movement and to get others involved. And on the road we are likely not going to get any calls driving to the basket. Hopefully Cam can have another hot game from outside to open things up, Bolden can continue his solid play, and we can exploit the offensive glass again.

[CDu]

Not sure I agree about White being a better shooter right now, given his prolonged slump...I think it was Greenberg who actually made a good point about Duke possibly not switching every time with Jones back so he can maintain pressure on the ball..I guess we'll see. I can see a bunch of time for White in this game given his toughness...not so much for O'Connell unless he's needed as a scoring spark (possible)...his defense still needs work.

Compared to where he was as of the UVa game, White was definitely a better threat at that point than Jones will be this weekend.

[uh_no]

Compared to where he was as of the UVa game, White was definitely a better threat at that point than Jones will be this weekend.

the debate is whether his early season run is representative of his actual ability. it's hard to know.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

the debate is whether his early season run is representative of his actual ability. it's hard to know.

apparently, over the summer, contemplating many hundreds of shots - White was the best 3 pt shooter on the team. True, practice shots are not the same as game shots, but the ability to shoot is there with Jack, and I would say even better than he was shooting before the slump.

[CDu]

the debate is whether his early season run is representative of his actual ability. it's hard to know.

Well, no, not in this instance. I was talking about relative to how things played out in the UVa game. We replaced Jones with two (theoretically) better shooters in the first UVa game. That helped spread the floor because UVa needed to pay attention to the extra shooter. This weekend, Jones will be playing 35+ minutes instead. And he's known to be a terrible shooter. So those driving lanes may get a little tighter as a result.

Whether or not White is as good as he was early in the season or what his aggregate numbers suggest is irrelevant to this discussion.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Here's hoping the velociraptors are released......

[uh_no]

Well, no, not in this instance. I was talking about relative to how things played out in the UVa game. We replaced Jones with two (theoretically) better shooters in the first UVa game. That helped spread the floor because UVa needed to pay attention to the extra shooter. This weekend, Jones will be playing 35+ minutes instead. And he's known to be a terrible shooter. So those driving lanes may get a little tighter as a result.

Whether or not White is as good as he was early in the season or what his aggregate numbers suggest is irrelevant to this discussion.

given that their three point percentages are nearly identical, I'm not sure it's fair to praise Jack while condemning tre....

[CDu]

given that their three point percentages are nearly identical, I'm not sure it's fair to praise Jack while condemning tre...

Their percentages are nearly identical NOW. When White played against UVa, they were not nearly identical. At that time, White looked like a ~33% shooter from 3 (22-67). And more to the point, I would suggest that the opponent probably viewed him as better than that, considering that this was immediately after just the one atrocious game (0-10 against Syracuse). Prior to Syracuse, White was at 38.6% on the season. So, I feel quite comfortable saying that UVa would have treated White as more of a shooter in that first game than they will treat Jones this weekend.

Also, my comments were/are neither a praise nor a condemnation of either player. I'm strictly talking about outside perception and the effect of said outside perception on UVa's gameplanning.

[uh_no]

Their percentages are nearly identical NOW. When White played against UVa, they were not nearly identical. At that time, White looked like a ~33% shooter from 3. And the argument could be made that an opponent would view him as better than that, considering that this was immediately after just the one atrocious game (0-10 against Syracuse). So, I feel quite comfortable saying that UVa would have treated White as more of a shooter in that first game than they will treat Jones this weekend.

This is neither a praise nor a condemnation of either player. I'm strictly talking about outside perception and gameplanning.

if you take out Jack's bad games, his numbers look better. if you take out Jack's good games, his numbers look worse.

there's no evidence to indicate one way or the other is more representative.

[dukelifer]

Yeah, the one down side of Tre Jones being back is that it makes us a worse shooting team. His absence meant more minutes for White and O'Connell, both of whom are better shooters. Against a team that doesn't turn it over and plays a well-organized defense, that's a potential area for concern.

Hopefully Jones can help offset that with better passing and forcing a turnover or two more to offset that. He's been obviously a fantastic player for us, but I do wonder if his limitations get exposed against a very disciplined, organized team like UVa. We'll see.

I agree. I am still interested to see how Tre affects the game. If one of their two guards is somehow taken out- or is subpar- it makes UVa more ordinary. This is by far a big test for this Duke team. Duke (Zion and RJ) worked VERY hard for points in the win against UVA at home. UVA seemed to play loose and easy. It is always interesting to see how teams adjust after the first time playing. In the old days- when there were two real halves to the season (that is, Duke played each team twice)- I always looked forward to the rematch and the coaching adjustments. Looking forward to the game- should be another nail biter.

[CDu]

if you take out Jack's bad games, his numbers look better. if you take out Jack's good games, his numbers look worse.

there's no evidence to indicate one way or the other is more representative.

Jesus man, you are completely missing the point of this discussion.

Nothing in what I said has anything to do with how good a shooter White truly is or isn't. It's about how the opponent may gameplan differently. White looked more like a shooting threat than Jones as of last time we met. That forced UVa to space the floor more than they will have to now that Tre Jones is back. Because at the time of that game, White looked like a shooter, whereas Jones does not.

You are trying to pigeon-hole this discussion into a separate discussion about Jack White's true shooting ability. As I said, this discussion has NOTHING to do with that discussion. I'm sorry if you misunderstood the discussion. But you're talking about tire irons when I'm talking about oranges here.

[MChambers]

I seem to remember Tre's brother shooting well at JPJ Arena. Maybe he's got a tip or two for Tre.

[CDu]

Jesus man, you are completely missing the point of this discussion.

Nothing in what I said has anything to do with how good a shooter White truly is or isn't. It's about how the opponent may gameplan differently. White looked more like a shooting threat than Jones as of last time we met. That forced UVa to space the floor more than they will have to now that Tre Jones is back. Because at the time of that game, White looked like a shooter, whereas Jones does not.

You are trying to pigeon-hole this discussion into a separate discussion about Jack White's true shooting ability. As I said, this discussion has NOTHING to do with that discussion. I'm sorry if you misunderstood the discussion. But you're talking about tire irons when I'm talking about oranges here.

And just to further clarify in case this misunderstanding continues:

I was not referring to O'Connell and White actually providing perimeter shots during the first UVa game. That may not have been explicitly stated in my first post on the topic, but it should have been abundantly clear from the fact that the two combined to go 0-1 from 3 in the game. Obviously they didn't provide any scoring from the perimeter in that game.

I was referring to their theoretical threat of making a 3, which provided floor spacing for Zion and Barrett. At the time of that game, minutes played by those two would probably have been viewed as "shooters' minutes" by the opposition, because White was one game removed from being a 39% 3pt shooter on the season and O'Connell was at 38% on the season. Thus, their presence on the floor would space the floor a little better than Jones may, because teams are going to slouch off him as a catch-and-shoot threat. That means smaller driving lanes for Zion and Barrett, which could put more pressure on the offense.

And thus, hopefully Jones' passing and/or ability to force turnovers helps offset any floor spacing disadvantage we face as a result of him playing in place of "shooters." Or, hopefully he knocks down the open shots if they give them to him and he decides to take them.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I seem to remember Tre's brother shooting well at JPJ Arena. Maybe he's got a tip or two for Tre.

At birth, Tyus made the decision to sacrifice defense for shooting.

Upon creating a Tyus clone, geneticists decided to add defense and subtract shooting.

[Indoor66]

Gonna be awfully hard to beat the Hoos three times. I wouldn't mind if we lost this one and saved the third one for the tourney. It's all practice until March.
Love, Ima

Maybe not as hard as for the Hoos to beat the Devils once?

[wsb3]

if you take out Jack's bad games, his numbers look better. if you take out Jack's good games, his numbers look worse..

Uh, OK. :D I found humor in this one. Thank you..

[budwom]

Compared to where he was as of the UVa game, White was definitely a better threat at that point than Jones will be this weekend.

I get your point, and not to be overly contentious, but your original statement was "the one downside of Tre Jones being back is that it makes us a worse shooting team."

To me, that's pretty clearly a "now" statement, with which I disagreed...contorting that statement to say it was about where White was at the last UVA game is something of a stretch. But I do now get the point, peace.

[CDu]

I get your point, and not to be overly contentious, but your original statement was "the one downside of Tre Jones being back is that it makes us a worse shooting team."

To me, that's pretty clearly a "now" statement, with which I disagreed...contorting that statement to say it was about where White was at the last UVA game is something of a stretch. But I do now get the point, peace.

Sure, I didn’t write out the longhand of what I was saying, and I can see how that would lead to confusion.

[jaytoc]

I consider Tre Jones to be a very effective scorer, albeit an element of his game that he has deferred since his primary offensive responsibility is to bring the ball up and distribute. Notwithstanding his challenges from beyond the three point line, he has proven himself very effective with pull up jump shots, teardrops, and finishes going to and under the hoop. Especially when the Devils have struggled and really needed a basket.

Until last night - he short-armed virtually everything he threw up there. It was not a good night in the offensive end.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I consider Tre Jones to be a very effective scorer, albeit an element of his game that he has deferred since his primary offensive responsibility is to bring the ball up and distribute. Notwithstanding his challenges from beyond the three point line, he has proven himself very effective with pull up jump shots, teardrops, and finishes going to and under the hoop. Especially when the Devils have struggled and really needed a basket.

Until last night - he short-armed virtually everything he threw up there. It was not a good night in the offensive end.

I agree with this......and yeah, last night he definitely pulled the plug on a few of his shots, including a short shot and a FT. Wonder if the shoulder got bumped.

[hallcity]

I'm reading a bunch of posts that seem to assume that relying upon Zion and R.J. in isolation won't work so well this time around. Why not? Zion and R.J. are still far superior athletes to anyone U.Va can put on the court. The packline defense is still a man to man defense that relies upon individual defenders preventing penetration. How does having more time to prepare help? It doesn't make you more athletic. Can the packline defense really be tweaked enough to prevent iso from working? If Bennett does tweak it extensively, won't that open up other opportunities for Duke? I dunno but U.Va's problems in the first game looked very elemental to me. Of course, they nearly won the first game. With better outside shooting they could have won it. This time, though, with Tre in the game they're likely to have more problems getting good shots and more turnovers.

[COYS]

I consider Tre Jones to be a very effective scorer, albeit an element of his game that he has deferred since his primary offensive responsibility is to bring the ball up and distribute. Notwithstanding his challenges from beyond the three point line, he has proven himself very effective with pull up jump shots, teardrops, and finishes going to and under the hoop. Especially when the Devils have struggled and really needed a basket.

Until last night - he short-armed virtually everything he threw up there. It was not a good night in the offensive end.

Tre has looked like he could be a good secondary scorer on occasion, but his overall TS% and eFG% are roughly equal to Cam's numbers (albeit, on far fewer shots). I wouldn't be surprised to see UVA defend Tre as if he's going to pass every time he drives inside the arc, somewhat like how coach K had Duke's defense defend Kendall Marshall to pass earlier this decade. Duke closed off Marshall's passing outlets on his drives and forced him to shoot. Sometimes he scored, but overall it was a win for Duke. I think UVA would be pretty happy if they're able to turn Tre into a shooter instead of a facilitator.

Having said all that, it does feel to me that he is SO close to getting some of those shots to fall. Maybe all of the short-armed shots from last night are the result of playing himself back into full health after his injury. Here's hoping he has the range figured out for Saturday because we become a really scary-good offensive team when Tre is efficient with his shots.

[CDu]

I'm reading a bunch of posts that seem to assume that relying upon Zion and R.J. in isolation won't work so well this time around. Why not? Zion and R.J. are still far superior athletes to anyone U.Va can put on the court. The packline defense is still a man to man defense that relies upon individual defenders preventing penetration. How does having more time to prepare help? It doesn't make you more athletic. Can the packline defense really be tweaked enough to prevent iso from working? If Bennett does tweak it extensively, won't that open up other opportunities for Duke? I dunno but U.Va's problems in the first game looked very elemental to me. Of course, they nearly won the first game. With better outside shooting they could have won it. This time, though, with Tre in the game they're likely to have more problems getting good shots and more turnovers.

One of the purposes of the pack line defense is actually to protect against dribble penetration. You can almost think of it as a 4-man zone with on-ball pressure up top. It's extremely difficult to beat it with iso ball, unless you hit 3s at a high rate. What I suspect was part of it was (of course) that you can't really prepare for Zion until you've seen him, but also that we were able to spread UVa out with Reddish/White/O'Connell and get Zion and Barrett iso'd in good matchups just enough to allow them to get to the hoop.

My guess is that Bennett will make clear to the team that they need to be less cognizant of the 3 and VERY cognizant of sticking to the pack line principles to congest the lane on drives by Barrett and Zion. And with Jones being another nonshooter, they may feel more comfortable in committing to that philosophy.

It will be interesting to see if the lanes are tighter than before, and also if Barrett and Zion can still be as effective. Barrett in particular was especially effective going to the basket in that game, moreso than he usually is. It will be interesting to see how well they adjust this time.

[Billy Dat]

It is so tough to predict how each coach will approach this game.

Virginia Defense:
Virginia is the best defense in D1, and the overall best defensive program in recent years. In Game 1, Duke was able to prevail by running a simple weave to open up space for (mostly) Zion and RJ to attack the rim. There was no gimmick, it was betting on talent over scheme and it worked. Considering how badly we have been shooting, I imagine that Bennett will do everything possible to build a fortress around the paint and force us to make shots from the mid-range and out. Usually, UVA will take away the 3, but I wonder if they will? Would they rather try and force us to make some first?

Duke Defense:
The absence of Tre had us switch 1-5, another winning bet. We also used some zone in the second half which kind of worked, but I also think UVA missed a lot of shots they usually make, especially Kyle Guy. In the past two games, at least early, SJU and BC were able to get a bunch of wide open looks from 3 and some easy shots at the rim. They kind of lifted us up and flattened us out, pulled our big away from the paint, and patiently worked some continuity until guys got caught out of position. That is exactly the kind of patience UVA demonstrates. Surely K will throw some kind of wrinkle at them?

Stuff to consider:
-Last game, the stat lines were nearly identical. On the season, Duke seems to be the stronger rebounding team. Can one squad break through in boards, TOs, steals, etc?
-Is Tre Jones' presence the ultimate advantage for Duke over Game 1 or will Bennett try and use the seaming strength against us somehow?
-Can Duke get to the line and MAKE FTs after we gave away so many points on that end last time?
-Will UVA have a good 3 point shooting night or not? I feel like they are going to get open looks.

[ElliottHoo]

One of the purposes of the pack line defense is actually to protect against dribble penetration. You can almost think of it as a 4-man zone with on-ball pressure up top. It's extremely difficult to beat it with iso ball, unless you hit 3s at a high rate. What I suspect was part of it was (of course) that you can't really prepare for Zion until you've seen him, but also that we were able to spread UVa out with Reddish/White/O'Connell and get Zion and Barrett iso'd in good matchups just enough to allow them to get to the hoop.

My guess is that Bennett will make clear to the team that they need to be less cognizant of the 3 and VERY cognizant of sticking to the pack line principles to congest the lane on drives by Barrett and Zion. And with Jones being another nonshooter, they may feel more comfortable in committing to that philosophy.

It will be interesting to see if the lanes are tighter than before, and also if Barrett and Zion can still be as effective. Barrett in particular was especially effective going to the basket in that game, moreso than he usually is. It will be interesting to see how well they adjust this time.

UVA, oddly enough, seems to approach big games with the strategy of letting the big dogs get theirs but completely shut down everyone else. Its not only what happened last time the teams met, but also the case last year when Bagley had nearly half of Duke's points vs UVA. My suspicion is that, defensively anyway, UVA tries essentially the same thing again albeit working a little harder to at least slow down Barrett. Barrett's hard to stop, but not as hard to stop as Zion, and that's my key to the game. If UVA can hold Barrett under 20 (either through denying him the ball or hounding him into going 5 of 17 or something), I think they win. If Barrett has a big game again, I think Duke wins.

[MChambers]

I'll be curious to see if Duke can force some turnovers with Tre back. UVa has been great most of the year at not turning the ball over, but has had two bad games in a row in this category. (In the most recent game, that was partly attributable to Jerome missing the game.) If Duke can get some live ball turnovers, it should lead to easy buckets, taking some pressure off the half court offense.

[Neals384]

Gonna be awfully hard to beat the Hoos three times. I wouldn't mind if we lost this one and saved the third one for the tourney. It's all practice until March.
Love, Ima

Have never understood this logic, either fo basketball or football. If we lose this game, we have zero chance of sweeping all 3. If we win, we have a decent chance at the third one too. Or do you really think losing this game improves the odds of a win later on?

[FerryFor50]

One of the purposes of the pack line defense is actually to protect against dribble penetration. You can almost think of it as a 4-man zone with on-ball pressure up top. It's extremely difficult to beat it with iso ball, unless you hit 3s at a high rate. What I suspect was part of it was (of course) that you can't really prepare for Zion until you've seen him, but also that we were able to spread UVa out with Reddish/White/O'Connell and get Zion and Barrett iso'd in good matchups just enough to allow them to get to the hoop.

My guess is that Bennett will make clear to the team that they need to be less cognizant of the 3 and VERY cognizant of sticking to the pack line principles to congest the lane on drives by Barrett and Zion. And with Jones being another nonshooter, they may feel more comfortable in committing to that philosophy.

It will be interesting to see if the lanes are tighter than before, and also if Barrett and Zion can still be as effective. Barrett in particular was especially effective going to the basket in that game, moreso than he usually is. It will be interesting to see how well they adjust this time.

Even with awful outside shooting against UVA (2-14 from 3 for 14%) and bad FT shooting (58%), Duke was able to put up 72 points against the pack line, which is the most UVA has given up all season. If you recall, Duke's offense looked a little lost at times without Tre Jones running the show, so it's not impossible that Duke can beat that offensive output on Saturday - especially if Cam Reddish's recent outside shooting streak is for real.

But the real key to me is the defense. Can UVA score 70 on a Duke team with Tre Jones back and hassling Kyle Guy all night?

[DavidBenAkiva]

Something to keep in mind for the UVA game is the health status of Ty Jerome. The junior point guard missed UVA's most recent game against Miami with a back injury. Prior to that game, he was pretty mediocre against NC State in a very close overtime victory for UVA. The point guard shot 5-11 from the floor and had 4 turnovers in 41 minutes of action. His status for the game could be a major factor.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Something to keep in mind for the UVA game is the health status of Ty Jerome. The junior point guard missed UVA's most recent game against Miami with a back injury. Prior to that game, he was pretty mediocre against NC State in a very close overtime victory for UVA. The point guard shot 5-11 from the floor and had 4 turnovers in 41 minutes of action. His status for the game could be a major factor.

He'll play. Whether he's at 100 percent, I don't know. But he will play.

[robed deity]

Even with awful outside shooting against UVA (2-14 from 3 for 14%) and bad FT shooting (58%), Duke was able to put up 72 points against the pack line, which is the most UVA has given up all season. If you recall, Duke's offense looked a little lost at times without Tre Jones running the show, so it's not impossible that Duke can beat that offensive output on Saturday - especially if Cam Reddish's recent outside shooting streak is for real.

But the real key to me is the defense. Can UVA score 70 on a Duke team with Tre Jones back and hassling Kyle Guy all night?

Maybe a stupid question, but any chance Tre is assigned to Jerome? To me, he's the heart and soul.

[MChambers]

Maybe a stupid question, but any chance Tre is assigned to Jerome? To me, he's the heart and soul.

At least when Clark is not in the game, I’d expect Tre to pick up Jerome in the back court and make it as hard as possible for UVa to get into its half court offense. Remember that UVa like to be very patient on offense. If Duke can make UVa use a bunch of clock just getting into a half court offense, that’s advantage Duke.

But K has a way of surprising us.

[Kedsy]

I consider Tre Jones to be a very effective scorer, albeit an element of his game that he has deferred since his primary offensive responsibility is to bring the ball up and distribute. Notwithstanding his challenges from beyond the three point line, he has proven himself very effective with pull up jump shots, teardrops, and finishes going to and under the hoop.

It may be worth noting that Tre's eFG% on threes (42.3%) is better than his eFG% on two-point jumpers (39.2%). In other words, he's more effective on threes than on two-point jumpers (including pull-ups and teardrops).


I wouldn't be surprised to see UVA defend Tre as if he's going to pass every time he drives inside the arc, somewhat like how coach K had Duke's defense defend Kendall Marshall to pass earlier this decade. Duke closed off Marshall's passing outlets on his drives and forced him to shoot. Sometimes he scored, but overall it was a win for Duke.

Well, it was in Marshall's freshman year. His sophomore year he scored 17 ppg against Duke on 50% shooting.


In the past two games, at least early, SJU and BC were able to get a bunch of wide open looks from 3 and some easy shots at the rim. They kind of lifted us up and flattened us out, pulled our big away from the paint, and patiently worked some continuity until guys got caught out of position. That is exactly the kind of patience UVA demonstrates.

It's also worth noting that in those two games, Duke's adjusted dRating was 0.72 and 0.75, so despite St. John's scoring early against us, overall our defense dominated in both games.

[Bob Green]

I hope we don't feel the need to "prove" we can hit outside shots. If we can make 2 or 3 in the first half out of 9 or 10, I'm fine. Let's just not shoot 16 in the first half trying to make one or two more. Our inside game is so much more effective.

If we play our game and they play theirs, I think we win.

Excellent point which I agree with wholeheartedly. We need to take and make "some" outside shots but it is much more important to play our game and score inside and in transition (which is difficult against Virginia).

I heard a comment on outside shooting from John Calipari a week or 10 days ago that is germane: "You don't have to make them all, you just can't miss them all."

If we take good shots, in the flow of the offense, we will make enough.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I heard a comment on outside shooting from John Calipari a week or 10 days ago that is germane: "You don't have to make them all, you just can't miss them all."
.

A maneuver that will forever be known as "the full Beverly"........(sorry Packman.....couldn't resist....)

[Saratoga2]

With Tre back, I assume we will hold UVA to 70 or below unless they go wild with 3 point shooting. Coach K wiil no doubt try to limit the 3 point shooting of UVA and force them to score the bulk of their points inside and from the line. If we can limit UVA to 70 or below, how do we manage to score more?

My view is RJ and Zion between them will be good for 40 or more. Hard to keep them below that and those two will probably play around 65 minutes. Our other potentially big scorer is Cam, who can give us 15 points if he is hitting at all. Note his ft shooting has gotten great over his last few games. He will probably play 35 minutes or more. A wild card for us on offense is Tre, who scores in an assortment of ways, but not so much from 3. I see him getting 8 in his 35 minutes of floor time. Bolden will also play a lot and probably kick in with 5 points and do 30 minutes of floor time. I don't expect a lot from Javin and Jack, maybe 2 points between them. The hope is that Alex came come in and give us another 4 points with limited mintutes.

All this to say it is quite plausible that we will score over 70 without doing anything out of the ordinary for our team. Looking forward to a good and competitive game.

[Bob Green]

I like the zone as a change of pace against UVA.

We've been play such high quality defense that I question the need for a change of pace. If it was a team other than Virginia, I'd be a proponent of running some full or three quarter court zone press to disrupt their offensive flow and burn shot clock but Virginia is extremely comfortable late in the shot clock.

[Ian]

With Tre back, I assume we will hold UVA to 70 or below unless they go wild with 3 point shooting. Coach K wiil no doubt try to limit the 3 point shooting of UVA and force them to score the bulk of their points inside and from the line. If we can limit UVA to 70 or below, how do we manage to score more?

My view is RJ and Zion between them will be good for 40 or more. Hard to keep them below that and those two will probably play around 65 minutes. Our other potentially big scorer is Cam, who can give us 15 points if he is hitting at all. Note his ft shooting has gotten great over his last few games. He will probably play 35 minutes or more. A wild card for us on offense is Tre, who scores in an assortment of ways, but not so much from 3. I see him getting 8 in his 35 minutes of floor time. Bolden will also play a lot and probably kick in with 5 points and do 30 minutes of floor time. I don't expect a lot from Javin and Jack, maybe 2 points between them. The hope is that Alex came come in and give us another 4 points with limited mintutes.

All this to say it is quite plausible that we will score over 70 without doing anything out of the ordinary for our team. Looking forward to a good and competitive game.

Forcing UVa to take 2s instead of 3s is how we won the first game and is how we can win the 2nd game.

UVA is the 13th best 3 pt shooting team in the country and the 107th 2pt shooting team. Conversely Duke is 3rd best 2pt and 309th 3 point shooting. Turning the game into a contest of 2 pt scoring obviously turns the game in our favor.

[Kedsy]

With Tre back, I assume we will hold UVA to 70 or below unless they go wild with 3 point shooting. Coach K wiil no doubt try to limit the 3 point shooting of UVA and force them to score the bulk of their points inside and from the line. If we can limit UVA to 70 or below, how do we manage to score more?

It's much more complicated than that. How many points it will take to win will depend almost entirely on which team wins the battle of the pace.

Virginia is the slowest team in the country (average adjusted possessions per game of 59.7). Duke is among the fastest 20 teams (avg adj poss per game of 73.2). Going into the first Virginia game, Duke had significantly sped up its opponents in almost every game. Since (and including) that Virginia game, the other teams have slowed us down. We've been below 70 possessions (and way below our average) in five of six games (UVa 62.9; Pitt 68.5; GaT 69.4; ND 61.9; St J 76.8; BC 68.8).

If the recent trend continues and Virginia wins the battle of the pace, say a 60 possession game then (considering both teams are top 5 defenses) 70 points for either side would be a massive offensive output (the equivalent to 7 to 9 points per hundred possessions better than the best offense in the country). Just 60 points from either side would be pretty decent offense. If Duke can get the pace up to 70 possessions, then 70 points from one or both teams would be pretty decent but certainly not surprising. With that many possessions, it would be very possible that the winner will have 75 or even 80 points if one or both teams play really well on the offensive end.

[Troublemaker]

This game is playing with house money.

This game might decide the ACC regular season title, an easier path in the ACC tournament, and an easier path in the NCAA tournament.

The stakes are huge, my friend. While I would agree that a loss to UVA here doesn't reflect poorly on Duke, that's different from saying that we're playing with house money. The stakes are *huge*.


I like the trajectory of Reddish right now. I'll predict RJ struggles a bit more this time around and Cam comes up with some big shots. Zion will be Zion, and Duke ekes another out. I also like that they haven't experienced Tre playing d. Gotta think that'll at least count for something.

I love this prediction and hope it comes true (the latter part of it, anyway).

One of Bennett's mistakes in the first game was to not use Deandre Hunter to cover RJ. (If memory serves, an ESPN sideline reporter said that Hunter was begging the UVA staff for the assignment). If you look at RJ's highlights below, you'll see that RJ did almost all his work by toasting Jerome, Key, and Guy. He was amazing. But unfortunately, I expect Bennett to remedy his mistake and put perhaps the country's best shutdown defender in Hunter on RJ in this game instead of wasting Hunter on Zion*. I say this as perhaps the biggest RJ fan on here, but he's not going to have a good game when covered by Hunter.

So yes, we'll need Cam to replace RJ's production, and I'm very happy that Cam's played his best ball recently. And since I expect Duke will have to shoot well to win, that points even more to Cam playing a big role in this one.

* In football, sometimes the best use of a shutdown corner is to erase the opponents #2 WR completely and double-team the #1 WR with two other DBs. Putting the shutdown corner on the #1 WR is not necessarily the most efficient use all the time if the #1 WR is going to "get his" regardless.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6YRH0rUPVI

[uh_no]

It's also worth noting that in those two games, Duke's adjusted dRating was 0.72 and 0.75, so despite St. John's scoring early against us, overall our defense dominated in both games.

Even more so, if the outcome of our defense is a wide open look from 3 by a career 24% 3pt shooter, I'm totally okay with that. Let him shoot all day... that <75 efficiency on that shot isn't going to beat many people. People are reading way too much into the fact that Popovic happened to hit 2 early. It made the defense look worse than it actually was for a bit early.

[Troublemaker]

Even though the switch-everything defense worked so well in the first game, I actually hope we return to more of a straight M2M now that Tre is back. Bolden did a commendable job when he got switched onto a guard (which was clearly UVA's strategy) but I don't think it is sustainable to have him do that for a whole game. And as others have alluded, Tre is more of a mismatch himself when he gets switched onto a bigger player. So I think we switch the wings (Barrett/Zion/Cam/Alex/Jack) but try to keep Jones on his man and use Bolden in a hedge-and-recover mode when defending the ball screens. It does open up the possibility of UVA getting some open threes (which K really worked hard to take away in the first game) but it's better than the alternative of having Bolden constantly guarding Guy or Jerome on the perimeter.

I have a funny suspicion Marques might perform better guarding the perimeter this time around. Since the UVA game, Marques has had five additional confidence-boosting, looking-spry games where he's solidified himself as the starting center. I just think the dude's on an upswing and playing more confident now than ever.

That said, I think we're going to need all three looks -- switch everything, more conventional m2m, and 2-3 zone -- and maybe a fourth look to pull off this road upset. I don't necessarily recommend any one defense.


I'm reading a bunch of posts that seem to assume that relying upon Zion and R.J. in isolation won't work so well this time around. Why not? Zion and R.J. are still far superior athletes to anyone U.Va can put on the court. The packline defense is still a man to man defense that relies upon individual defenders preventing penetration.


One of the purposes of the pack line defense is actually to protect against dribble penetration. You can almost think of it as a 4-man zone with on-ball pressure up top. It's extremely difficult to beat it with iso ball, unless you hit 3s at a high rate. What I suspect was part of it was (of course) that you can't really prepare for Zion until you've seen him, but also that we were able to spread UVa out with Reddish/White/O'Connell and get Zion and Barrett iso'd in good matchups just enough to allow them to get to the hoop.

My guess is that Bennett will make clear to the team that they need to be less cognizant of the 3 and VERY cognizant of sticking to the pack line principles to congest the lane on drives by Barrett and Zion. And with Jones being another nonshooter, they may feel more comfortable in committing to that philosophy.

It will be interesting to see if the lanes are tighter than before, and also if Barrett and Zion can still be as effective. Barrett in particular was especially effective going to the basket in that game, moreso than he usually is. It will be interesting to see how well they adjust this time.

I think CDu provides a great explanation here to hallcity's question. hallcity -- look at it this way -- UVA isn't the only team to play m2m against Duke this season. Duke struggled mightily against Texas Tech's compact m2m defense, for example, and I wouldn't say Texas Tech is any more athletic than UVA. (And overall, putting Zion aside, the difference in athleticism between UVA and Duke isn't large, imo. Guys like Hunter and Diakite are quite athletic.)

Anyway, it's just hard to believe UVA won't be able to compact their defense even more to take away some (not all) drives this time around. Duke will have to make outside shots to win.

[Kedsy]

Duke will have to make outside shots to win.

One overlooked aspect of the first UVa game is that Duke scored 21% of its points from fast breaks (15 fast break points total). If we can repeat that, while I wouldn't recommend shooting 14% from three this time, we don't have to become the Warriors to pull this off.

[Jeffrey]

It will be interesting to see if the lanes are tighter than before, and also if Barrett and Zion can still be as effective. Barrett in particular was especially effective going to the basket in that game, moreso than he usually is. It will be interesting to see how well they adjust this time.

IMO, UVA was not well prepared for Barrett at PG. They certainly will not be preparing for it this Saturday.

[Nugget]

It's much more complicated than that. How many points it will take to win will depend almost entirely on which team wins the battle of the pace.

Virginia is the slowest team in the country (average adjusted possessions per game of 59.7). Duke is among the fastest 20 teams (avg adj poss per game of 73.2). Going into the first Virginia game, Duke had significantly sped up its opponents in almost every game. Since (and including) that Virginia game, the other teams have slowed us down. We've been below 70 possessions (and way below our average) in five of six games (UVa 62.9; Pitt 68.5; GaT 69.4; ND 61.9; St J 76.8; BC 68.8).

If the recent trend continues and Virginia wins the battle of the pace, say a 60 possession game then (considering both teams are top 5 defenses) 70 points for either side would be a massive offensive output (the equivalent to 7 to 9 points per hundred possessions better than the best offense in the country). Just 60 points from either side would be pretty decent offense. If Duke can get the pace up to 70 possessions, then 70 points from one or both teams would be pretty decent but certainly not surprising. With that many possessions, it would be very possible that the winner will have 75 or even 80 points if one or both teams play really well on the offensive end.

Obviously our pace has been higher this year than in the recent past, and this is a highly unscientific sample, but the last game against U.Va. was the first time we've cracked 70 since 2010-2011. Since then our scores against U.Va. have been:

61-58
68-73
69-65
63-72
69-63
63-62
65-55
65-63.

We had to be unusually efficient as compared to Virginia's normal defensive results (your post game notes pegged as with an oRtg at 1.15, 1.32 adjusted that game) to get up over 70.

Hopefully, we can pull that off again, but seems more likely we would need to keep Virginia in the 60's to win.

[uh_no]

I have a funny suspicion Marques might perform better guarding the perimeter this time around. Since the UVA game, Marques has had five additional confidence-boosting, looking-spry games where he's solidified himself as the starting center. I just think the dude's on an upswing and playing more confident now than ever.


I think he will have issues if he's asked to guard in the way he was in the UVA game. He had the issues against St. Johns until K changed up the scheme. So I think I'd modify the statement to say that bolden will be more successful guarding the perimeter because the defensive adjustments are putting him in a better position to succeed.

Having tre there helps take the pressure off a huge amount, as well...allowing Bolden to play a bit less agressively.

This isn't meant to downplay how well bolden is playing, I just don't think his improvements on the court are of the type that are going to allow him to stay in front of guards.

[CDu]

I am hoping that Reddish can be an X-factor in this one. UVa will no doubt be Uber-focused in containing Barrett and Williamson. If Reddish can shoot well (he has hit 11-29 [38%] the last 3 games), that would be a huge boost. It will be very difficult for the Hoos to contain Barrett and Williamson AND prevent open 3s for Reddish. Hopefully he can make them pay if they get too focused on the two drivers.

[dukelifer]

One of the purposes of the pack line defense is actually to protect against dribble penetration. You can almost think of it as a 4-man zone with on-ball pressure up top. It's extremely difficult to beat it with iso ball, unless you hit 3s at a high rate. What I suspect was part of it was (of course) that you can't really prepare for Zion until you've seen him, but also that we were able to spread UVa out with Reddish/White/O'Connell and get Zion and Barrett iso'd in good matchups just enough to allow them to get to the hoop.

My guess is that Bennett will make clear to the team that they need to be less cognizant of the 3 and VERY cognizant of sticking to the pack line principles to congest the lane on drives by Barrett and Zion. And with Jones being another nonshooter, they may feel more comfortable in committing to that philosophy.

It will be interesting to see if the lanes are tighter than before, and also if Barrett and Zion can still be as effective. Barrett in particular was especially effective going to the basket in that game, moreso than he usually is. It will be interesting to see how well they adjust this time.

This is one interesting possible adjustment from the last game. Here how an open Reddish hits is critical. If he hits- it opens things up. I don't think Duke can rely on any other player to play this role and Reddish, unfortunately, has been up and down but trending more consistent of late. We shall see.

[dukelifer]

I am hoping that Reddish can be an X-factor in this one. UVa will no doubt be Uber-focused in containing Barrett and Williamson. If Reddish can shoot well (he has hit 11-29 [38%] the last 3 games), that would be a huge boost. It will be very difficult for the Hoos to contain Barrett and Williamson AND prevent open 3s for Reddish. Hopefully he can make them pay if they get too focused on the two drivers.
Did not see this until after I posted but we agree.

[Kedsy]

Obviously our pace has been higher this year than in the recent past, and this is a highly unscientific sample, but the last game against U.Va. was the first time we've cracked 70 since 2010-2011. Since then our scores against U.Va. have been:

61-58
68-73
69-65
63-72
69-63
63-62
65-55
65-63.

We had to be unusually efficient as compared to Virginia's normal defensive results (your post game notes pegged as with an oRtg at 1.15, 1.32 adjusted that game) to get up over 70.

Hopefully, we can pull that off again, but seems more likely we would need to keep Virginia in the 60's to win.

I've added our game earlier this season and included the possessions in each game:

61-58 (60.2)
68-73 (68.1)
69-65 (61.4)
63-72 (63.1)
69-63 (61.0)
63-62 (59.4)
65-55 (57.7)
65-63 (67.8)
72-70 (62.9)

Interestingly, the three fastest games were losses and all the others were wins for Duke. That said, all but two of them were a lot closer to 60 possessions than 70. And if a game has just 60 possessions, if you give up 70+ points you played pretty bad defense. And if you play bad defense, you often lose. So in that scenario I agree with you, and said as much in my earlier post.

But the point of my earlier post is, if we can control the tempo and have a 70+ possession game, then with two top 5 offenses, it would be unlikely to have a score in the 60s, on either side. Put another way, how many points you score is dependent on how many possessions you play. To say otherwise is overly simplistic.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'm curious to see how Tre is used on defense and how that changes - or doesn't - what everyone else will do.

In game 1, Duke was switching everything until late the second half when they showed zone a few times to switch things up. I assume they will continue the man defense at the onset of the game. That might result in Tre on Hunter or Salt or Marques on Jerome or Guy. I would prefer the Tre on Salt or Hunter matchup if Jones can strip the ball and generate a couple of fast break opportunities. And then you can sub out Marques for Javin or Jack and go with more of a "death lineup." That approach wasn't much of an option in the first game. Javin got into immediate foul trouble. And you couldn't really switch effectively with Jordan Goldwire and Alex O'Connell. With Tre in there as part of a death lineup where Zion or Javin are at the 5, you can effectively switch everything without having one of their 3 primary offensive weapons matched up with a favorable defender.

Or we could see a hybrid defense where Tre sticks on the point guard - Jerome or Clark - while everyone else switches. The blocker/mover offense that UVA runs has two posts setting screens on either side of the lane as the off guard and wing run continuity screens, essentially two pairs of two-man games where the guard gets the ball and either takes his shot or drives to the rim or slips the screen with a pass to the screener. You can prevent the latter with switching the defender at the screen. Tre is great at fighting through a screen without losing his man. He can stay on the point guard while the off guard and wing go through their continuity screen routine. This prevents Marques from getting switched onto Jerome and keeps him closer to the rim where he can be more effective in rim protection. Instead of switching from man to zone, the "wrinkle" in the second half is whether Tre switches or stays with his man. That change would be harder to identify. It also means Duke can do a better job of preventing open looks from 3 while keeping a man at the rim.

[UrinalCake]

According to K in the post-game presser after the previous UVA game, the only reason we went to zone was because the players were tired and he needed to steal some rest. I suspect that keeping Bolden in the paint was also part of this decision, but he didn't say so. Even though UVA plays at a slow pace, that doesn't mean our players get to rest. It's actually the opposite, because we spent so much time defending late into the shot clock.

The zone was effective in the first game but it kind of felt like we were playing with fire and that we got a little bit lucky that they missed some open threes. I'm not sure we'll use it as much this time around. I do like the idea of a death lineup for part of the game, Zion is big enough to defend Salt and that lets us really spread the floor. Overall we have a lot more options than we did in the first game because we were down a player and our bench is short to begin with.

[Kedsy]

According to K in the post-game presser after the previous UVA game, the only reason we went to zone was because the players were tired and he needed to steal some rest. I suspect that keeping Bolden in the paint was also part of this decision, but he didn't say so. Even though UVA plays at a slow pace, that doesn't mean our players get to rest. It's actually the opposite, because we spent so much time defending late into the shot clock.

Well, that plus the fact that the bench played a total of 12 minutes in that game, meaning the starters averaged 37.6 minutes in that game (two starters played all 40 minutes). This game, we'll have Tre back, so even if the bench beyond Jack White plays the same sparse minutes, the top six player minutes will drop to an average of 31.3 minutes, much more reasonable, which should make all six of them less tired at the end of the game.

[whereinthehellami]

This will be a home game for Javin, as he is from the C-ville area. That can work for and against players. Could be an interesting story line.

[camion]

I continue to ponder our team of mostly freshmen playing a "true away" game against a top 3 opponent that runs a defense designed to give problems to the type of offense we prefer.

:eek:

[Indoor66]

I continue to ponder our team of mostly freshmen playing a "true away" game against a top 3 opponent that runs a defense designed to give problems to the type of offense we prefer.

:eek:

Very thoughtful of you. 😊

[budwom]

at this point I can't imagine why Virginia won't play even more dense pack than they usually do and make us beat them from the outside. Last time the weave opened up driving lanes, I suspect Bennett will attempt to counter that.

[OldPhiKap]

I continue to ponder our team of mostly freshmen playing a "true away" game against a top 3 opponent that runs a defense designed to give problems to the type of offense we prefer.

:eek:

Agree, and am more curious than anxious to see the results. As long as we learn from it, regardless of the outcome, it should be great preparation for the Tournament.

[jv001]

at this point I can't imagine why Virginia won't play even more dense pack than they usually do and make us beat them from the outside. Last time the weave opened up driving lanes, I suspect Bennett will attempt to counter that.

I agree with budwom on this. I think the Hoos will pack it in to dissuade Zion and RJ drives to the basket. Another worry for me is the officiating for this game. There have been times that RJ has driven to the basket out of control. This could lead to offensive fouls being called. The same could be said of Zion, but I think he will be more careful about the charging calls. It's going to be a terrific game between two of the top teams in America going at it. GoDuke!

[Billy Dat]

I'm curious to see how Tre is used on defense and how that changes - or doesn't - what everyone else will do.

In game 1, Duke was switching everything until late the second half when they showed zone a few times to switch things up. I assume they will continue the man defense at the onset of the game. That might result in Tre on Hunter or Salt or Marques on Jerome or Guy. I would prefer the Tre on Salt or Hunter matchup if Jones can strip the ball and generate a couple of fast break opportunities. And then you can sub out Marques for Javin or Jack and go with more of a "death lineup." That approach wasn't much of an option in the first game. Javin got into immediate foul trouble. And you couldn't really switch effectively with Jordan Goldwire and Alex O'Connell. With Tre in there as part of a death lineup where Zion or Javin are at the 5, you can effectively switch everything without having one of their 3 primary offensive weapons matched up with a favorable defender.

Or we could see a hybrid defense where Tre sticks on the point guard - Jerome or Clark - while everyone else switches. The blocker/mover offense that UVA runs has two posts setting screens on either side of the lane as the off guard and wing run continuity screens, essentially two pairs of two-man games where the guard gets the ball and either takes his shot or drives to the rim or slips the screen with a pass to the screener. You can prevent the latter with switching the defender at the screen. Tre is great at fighting through a screen without losing his man. He can stay on the point guard while the off guard and wing go through their continuity screen routine. This prevents Marques from getting switched onto Jerome and keeps him closer to the rim where he can be more effective in rim protection. Instead of switching from man to zone, the "wrinkle" in the second half is whether Tre switches or stays with his man. That change would be harder to identify. It also means Duke can do a better job of preventing open looks from 3 while keeping a man at the rim.

First off, a lot of good X and O prognostication in this thread..well done, citizens of DBR.

You hit on a lot of things in this post that I have been thinking about, specifically the use of big vs small line-ups. This is such an interesting coaching battle and I wonder how much Salt and Bolden will factor. Will Bennett go small to try and force Duke to respond with "shooters"? If UVA goes small, can they keep Duke out of the lane and off the glass, especially the offensive glass? In some ways, our lack of shooting frees us up to play whatever line-ups we want, which is why I suspect Bennett will try and force Bolden off the floor with more mobile players to see if Javin or Jack can make an impact.

[Troublemaker]

I continue to ponder our team of mostly freshmen playing a "true away" game against a top 3 opponent that runs a defense designed to give problems to the type of offense we prefer.

Yes, it's really another first for our freshmen. This is the first time this season that Duke will play a team for the second time. And, in particular, a team we beat the first time. Will our freshmen be able to counter UVA's adjustments, realizing that what worked the first game may not work the second game? If UVA just packs it in real tight, can RJ and Zion make the kickout pass for the open three? It's more important for RJ than Zion, who might score 1-on-4 every now and then. And, generally, for the entire team, can they be patient and move the ball? You can still score on drives, but it might be on the 3rd or 4th penetration, not the 1st or 2nd penetration. Drive and kick, drive and kick, drive and kick, until the defense makes a mistake and opens the lane.


I think having Tre back for this one will hopefully help Duke force more turnovers at the point of attack. I think Tre can get into Jerome and Clark's pockets and generate a few turnovers leading to fast break transition baskets for Duke which may be the slight difference in the game. Zion is starting to get a steal or two a game it seems now by doubling the point guard from the weak side when Tre is applying immense ball pressure at the top of the key when he crosses halfcourt and getting run out dunks.

Hopefully. UVA fans can chime in here, but any of Jerome, Clark, Hunter, and Guy can be the point man up top in their offense. If I were UVA, I would reduce Tre's impact by having someone not guarded by Tre bring the ball up and run point for their blocker/mover offense. If Tre guards Jerome, for example, he can try to run Tre through screens instead of being harassed up top.

[jv001]

First off, a lot of good X and O prognostication in this thread..well done, citizens of DBR.

You hit on a lot of things in this post that I have been thinking about, specifically the use of big vs small line-ups. This is such an interesting coaching battle and I wonder how much Salt and Bolden will factor. Will Bennett go small to try and force Duke to respond with "shooters"? If UVA goes small, can they keep Duke out of the lane and off the glass, especially the offensive glass? In some ways, our lack of shooting frees us up to play whatever line-ups we want, which is why I suspect Bennett will try and force Bolden off the floor with more mobile players to see if Javin or Jack can make an impact.

This is a good point. Bolden is playing the best basketball of his Duke career and actually leads the team in blocked shots. Actually he's #2 in the conference by 1 block. I could see Bennett wanting Bolden off the court and Javin on the court. Plus, Jack is in a really bad shooting slump and the terrific VA coach would rather see Jack taking 3s and less Zion at the rim. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

You hit on a lot of things in this post that I have been thinking about, specifically the use of big vs small line-ups. This is such an interesting coaching battle and I wonder how much Salt and Bolden will factor. Will Bennett go small to try and force Duke to respond with "shooters"? If UVA goes small, can they keep Duke out of the lane and off the glass, especially the offensive glass? In some ways, our lack of shooting frees us up to play whatever line-ups we want, which is why I suspect Bennett will try and force Bolden off the floor with more mobile players to see if Javin or Jack can make an impact.

Absolutely, we should. I would love to get into a smallball vs smallball game with UVA because Duke is still huge when we're "small."

Zion, Jack, Cam, RJ, Tre
vs
Key, Hunter, Jerome, Guy, Clark

Seems like Duke would get the better of it to me. (Alternatively, sub Alex for Jack if Alex is playing more confidently).

DBA made a great point about how Coach K didn't use a death lineup last game because he didn't trust Alex. But with Tre back now, and with Jack still defending/rebounding well despite not shooting, and with Alex maybe having gained the confidence of Coach, the option is there.

Both coaches to me have "low hanging fruit" adjustments they can make that will cause the other team headaches. Bennett can put DeAndre Hunter on RJ. And Coach K can put Zion at the 5.

[roywhite]

Great to see all the anticipation for this game, and the civil discussion from Duke fans and Wahoo fans alike.

Are we seeing a transition in our most important rivalry? It would be a shame for the UNCheats to be downgraded in importance.

[budwom]

With possessions at a premium in this game, AOC has to stay focused, cut down on his lazy passes. We might well need his shooting.

[Jeffrey]

Are we seeing a transition in our most important rivalry?

Not in my lifetime.

[NSDukeFan]

How quick is Clark? Could he be quick enough to neutralize Tre’s defensive pressure on the point guard?

[devildeac]

Great to see all the anticipation for this game, and the civil discussion from Duke fans and Wahoo fans alike.

Are we seeing a transition in our most important rivalry? It would be a shame for the UNCheats to be downgraded in importance.

If they all became pillars of salt or part of Indoor66's scorched earth dream, I wouldn't miss them for a nanosecond.

Now, back to your UVa discussion.

[Troublemaker]

Great to see all the anticipation for this game, and the civil discussion from Duke fans and Wahoo fans alike.

Are we seeing a transition in our most important rivalry? It would be a shame for the UNCheats to be downgraded in importance.

That's not happening. Also, I'm not sure the UVA fans have been all that active in this thread yet. Maybe they'll pour in tomorrow and Saturday.

[W&LHoo]

Hopefully. UVA fans can chime in here, but any of Jerome, Clark, Hunter, and Guy can be the point man up top in their offense. If I were UVA, I would reduce Tre's impact by having someone not guarded by Tre bring the ball up and run point for their blocker/mover offense. If Tre guards Jerome, for example, he can try to run Tre through screens instead of being harassed up top.

It’s true that any of those four can run the point, but Jerome is far and away the best at it. He sometimes gets assists that seem impossible - no one else has that kind of vision as a guard for us.

My guess is that Bennett packs the lane tighter on defense in an attempt to keep y’all out of the paint, and hopefully put some fouls on your bigs. Unless you’re hitting threes we’ll do our standard close outs on shooters but it won’t be a priority.

Offensive prediction is that I don’t think a lot will change. We shot under our normal percentages from the perimeter, and if even one more Guy/Jerome/Hunter three falls then we’vd have stolen a win in Cameron. The addition of Tre probably limits our use of Clark who has shown a propensity to turn the ball over when rattled (he’s 18, so that’s forgivable as a fan, but Bennett accepts no excuse for it).

[Nugget]

Will our freshmen be able to counter UVA's adjustments, realizing that what worked the first game may not work the second game? If UVA just packs it in real tight, can RJ and Zion make the kickout pass for the open three? It's more important for RJ than Zion, who might score 1-on-4 every now and then. And, generally, for the entire team, can they be patient and move the ball? You can still score on drives, but it might be on the 3rd or 4th penetration, not the 1st or 2nd penetration. Drive and kick, drive and kick, drive and kick, until the defense makes a mistake and opens the lane.

At least on the offensive end, these seem like exactly the right issues to focus on. In particular whether RJ and Cam will have the patience and discipline to carry out multiple drives/passes rather than shooting off of the first movement of the possession, b/c I can't imagine iso ball working as well this game as it did last. Bennett is too good a coach not to adjust to take some of that away.

[Nugget]

DBA made a great point about how Coach K didn't use a death lineup last game because he didn't trust Alex. But with Tre back now, and with Jack still defending/rebounding well despite not shooting, and with Alex maybe having gained the confidence of Coach, the option is there.

Both coaches to me have "low hanging fruit" adjustments they can make that will cause the other team headaches. Bennett can put DeAndre Hunter on RJ. And Coach K can put Zion at the 5.

Given how much Coach K has historically played "small," it's been a bit surprising that we haven't played more of a "death" lineup. I would like to see it more and this would be a great game to break it out, since U.Va's bigs aren't going to overpower Zion inside, they don't go for many ORs in any event, and we're likely to need as much shooting on the floor as we can possibly get to open the driving lanes.

[MChambers]

It would be a shame for the UNCheats to be downgraded in importance.
They downgraded themselves years ago.

[robed deity]

Given how much Coach K has historically played "small," it's been a bit surprising that we haven't played more of a "death" lineup. I would like to see it more and this would be a great game to break it out, since U.Va's bigs aren't going to overpower Zion inside, they don't go for many ORs in any event, and we're likely to need as much shooting on the floor as we can possibly get to open the driving lanes.

I agree with this. It's a bit as if K is using the regular season to help Bolden gain confidence and experience, as there will undoubtedly be times playing small is not the best. And he's playing so well right now.

[DarkstarWahoo]

That's not happening. Also, I'm not sure the UVA fans have been all that active in this thread yet. Maybe they'll pour in tomorrow and Saturday.

We switched systems at work and I lost all my saved logins. BUT I'M BACK, BABY!

[dtl5g]

It’s true that any of those four can run the point, but Jerome is far and away the best at it. He sometimes gets assists that seem impossible - no one else has that kind of vision as a guard for us.

My guess is that Bennett packs the lane tighter on defense in an attempt to keep y’all out of the paint, and hopefully put some fouls on your bigs. Unless you’re hitting threes we’ll do our standard close outs on shooters but it won’t be a priority.

Offensive prediction is that I don’t think a lot will change. We shot under our normal percentages from the perimeter, and if even one more Guy/Jerome/Hunter three falls then we’vd have stolen a win in Cameron. The addition of Tre probably limits our use of Clark who has shown a propensity to turn the ball over when rattled (he’s 18, so that’s forgivable as a fan, but Bennett accepts no excuse for it).

I personally think Clark will play a lot in this game, because he is our best defensive option on tre jones. Unless he is struggling, I think he will play 20+ minutes and should be able to keep jones out of the lane mostly.

UVa will do what we always do, with Bennett switching defenders on Zion and Barrett to mix things up and try and keep them out of rhythm.

The really fascinating discussion in my opinion is what K will decide to do defensively. He pretty much surprised everybody the first game, and while we (UVa) were pretty efficient offensively, duke ultimately won the game and K was able to keep his small rotation rested because of his defensive strategy.

What will duke do this time? I still think the best option from dukes perspective is to switch up defenses, play some man and some zone, maybe switch everything again from time to time, etc. because it’s not just about stopping us, it’s about not allowing dukes wings/guards to get exhausted trying to chase our cutters around screens every possession.

Should be another good game. I am hoping we will get a home court advantage from the refs.

[kmspeaks]

Even though the switch-everything defense worked so well in the first game, I actually hope we return to more of a straight M2M now that Tre is back. Bolden did a commendable job when he got switched onto a guard (which was clearly UVA's strategy) but I don't think it is sustainable to have him do that for a whole game. And as others have alluded, Tre is more of a mismatch himself when he gets switched onto a bigger player. So I think we switch the wings (Barrett/Zion/Cam/Alex/Jack) but try to keep Jones on his man and use Bolden in a hedge-and-recover mode when defending the ball screens. It does open up the possibility of UVA getting some open threes (which K really worked hard to take away in the first game) but it's better than the alternative of having Bolden constantly guarding Guy or Jerome on the perimeter.

Our offense will also likely look different. Without Jones we just let RJ and Zion go one on one. I think we'll need some more ball movement and to get others involved. And on the road we are likely not going to get any calls driving to the basket. Hopefully Cam can have another hot game from outside to open things up, Bolden can continue his solid play, and we can exploit the offensive glass again.


I'm curious to see how Tre is used on defense and how that changes - or doesn't - what everyone else will do.

In game 1, Duke was switching everything until late the second half when they showed zone a few times to switch things up. I assume they will continue the man defense at the onset of the game. That might result in Tre on Hunter or Salt or Marques on Jerome or Guy. I would prefer the Tre on Salt or Hunter matchup if Jones can strip the ball and generate a couple of fast break opportunities. And then you can sub out Marques for Javin or Jack and go with more of a "death lineup." That approach wasn't much of an option in the first game. Javin got into immediate foul trouble. And you couldn't really switch effectively with Jordan Goldwire and Alex O'Connell. With Tre in there as part of a death lineup where Zion or Javin are at the 5, you can effectively switch everything without having one of their 3 primary offensive weapons matched up with a favorable defender.

Or we could see a hybrid defense where Tre sticks on the point guard - Jerome or Clark - while everyone else switches. The blocker/mover offense that UVA runs has two posts setting screens on either side of the lane as the off guard and wing run continuity screens, essentially two pairs of two-man games where the guard gets the ball and either takes his shot or drives to the rim or slips the screen with a pass to the screener. You can prevent the latter with switching the defender at the screen. Tre is great at fighting through a screen without losing his man. He can stay on the point guard while the off guard and wing go through their continuity screen routine. This prevents Marques from getting switched onto Jerome and keeps him closer to the rim where he can be more effective in rim protection. Instead of switching from man to zone, the "wrinkle" in the second half is whether Tre switches or stays with his man. That change would be harder to identify. It also means Duke can do a better job of preventing open looks from 3 while keeping a man at the rim.

Great stuff here from both of you. I think the key is really how Duke plays the screens off the ball rather than on them. That's where UVA generates the great looks from 3 and I'm not sure I see a need to change away from switch everything mode. Virginia trying to go iso to take advantage of mismatches is probably still advantage Duke. Their offense is so efficient (and annoying to play against) because they run guys through screen after screen until finally a miscommunication or misstep occurs. Switching all those screens decreases the chance of such a mistake.

[devildeac]

I personally think Clark will play a lot in this game, because he is our best defensive option on tre jones. Unless he is struggling, I think he will play 20+ minutes and should be able to keep jones out of the lane mostly.

UVa will do what we always do, with Bennett switching defenders on Zion and Barrett to mix things up and try and keep them out of rhythm.

The really fascinating discussion in my opinion is what K will decide to do defensively. He pretty much surprised everybody the first game, and while we (UVa) were pretty efficient offensively, duke ultimately won the game and K was able to keep his small rotation rested because of his defensive strategy.

What will duke do this time? I still think the best option from dukes perspective is to switch up defenses, play some man and some zone, maybe switch everything again from time to time, etc. because it’s not just about stopping us, it’s about not allowing dukes wings/guards to get exhausted trying to chase our cutters around screens every possession.

Should be another good game. I am hoping we will get a home court advantage from the refs.

Grrr. I hope it's called consistently/fairly.

[NSDukeFan]

Great to see all the anticipation for this game, and the civil discussion from Duke fans and Wahoo fans alike.

Are we seeing a transition in our most important rivalry? It would be a shame for the UNCheats to be downgraded in importance.


They downgraded themselves years ago.

Didn’t they show how important it is that they have a successful basketball program? So much so, that they are willing to sacrifice the whole university thing.

[ACCfaninVirginia]

Gonna be awfully hard to beat the Hoos three times. I wouldn't mind if we lost this one and saved the third one for the tourney. It's all practice until March.
Love, Ima

Either team would much prefer to win a fourth game against the other, regardless of the outcome of the first 3.

[ElliottHoo]

The addition of Tre probably limits our use of Clark who has shown a propensity to turn the ball over when rattled (he’s 18, so that’s forgivable as a fan, but Bennett accepts no excuse for it).

The Clark/Tre battle will be really interesting to watch. Clark is extremely fast and probably one of two players on UVA fast enough to effectively guard Tre, particularly since Tre isn't a great outside shooter. On the downside, as you said, Clark doesn't always take great care of the ball plus occasionally will try to do too much and force things. He's in serious danger of Tre repeatedly picking his pocket. Defensively they both match up well against each other.

The other player, imo, who can guard Tre is Guy. Guy doesn't get a ton of steals, blocks virtually no shots, and generally looks a little goofy but he is *much* faster than he's given credit for and is quietly an excellent defensive player. When Tre is in and Clark isn't, I expect Guy to do a surprisingly good job of guarding him.

Also, a minor point which has been around the UVA boards but might not have shown up here is that Hunter might not be defending quite as well this year as he did last year. Last year, despite being a freshman, Hunter was probably UVA's best on-ball defender (Wilkins was the god of help-defenders) and he could guard basically anyone.

This year, for whatever reason, he doesn't seem to be quite as good. One suspicion is that, despite looking like he was chiseled out of rock, he's better at using his footwork and length to shut down smaller players than he is at bodying up and banging with the bigger guys and he's been asked to do more of that this year. Which would go with the point that putting him on Zion was a mistake, but might also suggest he wouldn't be any better at stopping Barrett than anyone else. Virginia's best defender this year might be Diakite. His career has been a story of excellent tools combined with defensive brain-farts, but he's a very good shot blocker and can be surprisingly good against smaller players thanks to speed, length and good footwork. Against Miami, Miami's Johnson (a quick, 6-2 guard) was matched against Diakite at the top of the key on one possession, and Johnson simply could not get past because Diakite was with him step-for-step. One of the most impressive defensive possessions I've seen in a while.

Finally, UVA has a bit of a history of letting other team's stars score a bunch of points while shutting down the 2nd and 3rd options completely. I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Bennett put Salt and Key on Zion (conceding him 25+ points) while guarding Barrett with Hunter and Diakite.

[Billy Dat]

Should be another good game. I am hoping we will get a home court advantage from the refs.

I am thinking a lot about potential Duke foul trouble if we are called for charges...RJ, Zion and Cam. It is definitely something to watch. I won't necessarily think it's home court cooking, but to the hosts go the spoils sometimes (Grayson's downed foot says 'hello').

[flyingdutchdevil]

The Clark/Tre battle will be really interesting to watch. Clark is extremely fast and probably one of two players on UVA fast enough to effectively guard Tre, particularly since Tre isn't a great outside shooter. On the downside, as you said, Clark doesn't always take great care of the ball plus occasionally will try to do too much and force things. He's in serious danger of Tre repeatedly picking his pocket. Defensively they both match up well against each other.

The other player, imo, who can guard Tre is Guy. Guy doesn't get a ton of steals, blocks virtually no shots, and generally looks a little goofy but he is *much* faster than he's given credit for and is quietly an excellent defensive player. When Tre is in and Clark isn't, I expect Guy to do a surprisingly good job of guarding him.

Also, a minor point which has been around the UVA boards but might not have shown up here is that Hunter might not be defending quite as well this year as he did last year. Last year, despite being a freshman, Hunter was probably UVA's best on-ball defender (Wilkins was the god of help-defenders) and he could guard basically anyone.

This year, for whatever reason, he doesn't seem to be quite as good. One suspicion is that, despite looking like he was chiseled out of rock, he's better at using his footwork and length to shut down smaller players than he is at bodying up and banging with the bigger guys and he's been asked to do more of that this year. Which would go with the point that putting him on Zion was a mistake, but might also suggest he wouldn't be any better at stopping Barrett than anyone else. Virginia's best defender this year might be Diakite. His career has been a story of excellent tools combined with defensive brain-farts, but he's a very good shot blocker and can be surprisingly good against smaller players thanks to speed, length and good footwork. Against Miami, Miami's Johnson (a quick, 6-2 guard) was matched against Diakite at the top of the key on one possession, and Johnson simply could not get past because Diakite was with him step-for-step. One of the most impressive defensive possessions I've seen in a while.

Finally, UVA has a bit of a history of letting other team's stars score a bunch of points while shutting down the 2nd and 3rd options completely. I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Bennett put Salt and Key on Zion (conceding him 25+ points) while guarding Barrett with Hunter and Diakite.

Tre isn't going to score a lot. That's not his MO. If UVa wants to spend a lot of energy guarding him, then awesome. But I suspect Bennett is smarter than that.

RJ will beat anyone 1:1. Cam is dangerous from the outside and has increasingly made smarter and smarter plays (and protecting the ball better and better). And Zion, well, he's the best player in the country for a reason.

Those the 3 folks UVa should be concerned about. Marques is an excellent role player and will do damage if UVa forgets about him but he can be contained 1:1. Tre is the same way. And White, Javin, and AOC have been really inconsistent in ACC play.

This will be a battle of minds as much as it is a battle of bodies (well, 9 basketball bodies and 1 Hulk body). I'm looking forward to how Bennett and Coach K start the game.

[Phredd3]

Finally, UVA has a bit of a history of letting other team's stars score a bunch of points while shutting down the 2nd and 3rd options completely. I wouldn't be completely surprised to see Bennett put Salt and Key on Zion (conceding him 25+ points) while guarding Barrett with Hunter and Diakite.

And my hope would be that Cam can make UVa pay for that kind of concentration of defensive attention, with Tre there to give him the ball on the open wing. If Duke can do that a few times early, it could change the complexion of the game.

[Lar77]

This game is worthy of a 2-3 matchup. The Cameron game was one of the best I've seen, and I expect the JPJ game will be a similarly good one.

From a Duke perspective, we are a different and better team from the first matchup. Don't you think Tre has a little extra motivation because his big brother was the star of the 2015 game?Cam is getting better each time out. RJ and Zion are playing like RJ and Zion. And Marques has gotten much better.

Defensively, we are much better with Tre in there.

I expect the place will be rockin and rollin, and that environment might be a factor.

If the game goes into the 70s, we win. In the 60s, UVa will more likely win. Under 60, we lose.

[AGDukesky]

I am thinking a lot about potential Duke foul trouble if we are called for charges...RJ, Zion and Cam. It is definitely something to watch. I won't necessarily think it's home court cooking, but to the hosts go the spoils sometimes (Grayson's downed foot says 'hello').

Grayson was fouled first

[flyingdutchdevil]

This game is worthy of a 2-3 matchup. The Cameron game was one of the best I've seen, and I expect the JPJ game will be a similarly good one.

From a Duke perspective, we are a different and better team from the first matchup. Don't you think Tre has a little extra motivation because his big brother was the star of the 2015 game?Cam is getting better each time out. RJ and Zion are playing like RJ and Zion. And Marques has gotten much better.

Defensively, we are much better with Tre in there.

I expect the place will be rockin and rollin, and that environment might be a factor.

If the game goes into the 70s, we win. In the 60s, UVa will more likely win. Under 60, we lose.

No. I think Tre has a little extra motivation because he wasn't involved in Duke's most impressive win of the season (okay, second most impressive after the UK beat down).

[MChambers]

I am thinking a lot about potential Duke foul trouble if we are called for charges...RJ, Zion and Cam. It is definitely something to watch. I won't necessarily think it's home court cooking, but to the hosts go the spoils sometimes (Grayson's downed foot says 'hello').

I've been thinking the same thing. (But Grayson was fouled before his foot hit the ground.)

[Troublemaker]

From a Duke perspective, we are a different and better team from the first matchup. Don't you think Tre has a little extra motivation because his big brother was the star of the 2015 game? Cam is getting better each time out. RJ and Zion are playing like RJ and Zion. And Marques has gotten much better.

Defensively, we are much better with Tre in there.

I expect the place will be rockin and rollin, and that environment might be a factor.

If the game goes into the 70s, we win. In the 60s, UVa will more likely win. Under 60, we lose.

Perhaps, but if we're going to find motivational angles, it'll be tough to top UVA having not beaten Duke at home since 2013. Granted, they've only had two opportunities since then, but my feeling is these UVA upperclassmen and the fans badly want to celebrate a home win over Duke.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Just a quick stroll down memory lane. This is what happened the last time Duke visited UVA when both teams were in the Top 5.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-6w0zMpIM0

[DavidBenAkiva]

That was the shot.

Here's the chaser, the last time Duke visited UVA.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbCqnfjYzng

[UrinalCake]

Just a quick stroll down memory lane. This is what happened the last time Duke visited UVA when both teams were in the Top 5.

Everybody remembers the ending of that game, but we were down huge and made an incredible comeback. I think we scored something like 30 points in the last 8 minutes against that elite defense.

[CameronDuke]

Tony Bennett is 3-10 vs Coach K and Duke in his career (wins in 2013 at Virginia, 2014 in the ACC Championship game in Greensboro, and 2018 at Duke). Is that Bennett's worst winning percentage against another ACC coach and school?

[DavidBenAkiva]

Tony Bennett is 3-10 vs Coach K and Duke in his career (wins in 2013 at Virginia, 2014 in the ACC Championship game in Greensboro, and 2018 at Duke). Is that Bennett's worst winning percentage against another ACC coach and school?

Since taking over as the head coach in 2008-09, here is how UVA has done against the rest of the ACC:

Virginia Tech: 14-7
Georgia Tech: 12-2
NC State: 12-3
Clemson: 11-4
Boston College: 9-6
Louisville: 8-1
Wake Forest: 8-5
Miami: 8-7
North Carolina: 8-7
Florida State: 8-8
Notre Dame: 7-1
Pittsburgh: 7-1
Syracuse: 5-2 (as members of the ACC, 5-3 overall)
Duke: 3-10

[CameronDuke]

Since taking over as the head coach in 2008-09, here is how UVA has done against the rest of the ACC:

Virginia Tech: 14-7
Georgia Tech: 12-2
NC State: 12-3
Clemson: 11-4
Boston College: 9-6
Louisville: 8-1
Wake Forest: 8-5
Miami: 8-7
North Carolina: 8-7
Florida State: 8-8
Notre Dame: 7-1
Pittsburgh: 7-1
Syracuse: 5-2 (as members of the ACC, 5-3 overall)
Duke: 3-10

Thank you.

[MChambers]

Nothing new here, I think: https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/02/08/virginia-basketball-turnover-issues-ty-jerome-injury-shadow-duke-showdown/?utm_term=.791c82d29d9f

[budwom]

so many variables (health of guys), crafty coaching moves, anything could happen.
Having said that, I think that if Duke can hit 35% from the three point line, we win...

I know a lot has been written about how UVa shot poorly from 3 with wide open looks, but I think Duke's switching actually made some of their guys shoot a bit sooner than they would like.
That's basic hoops stuff...Duke's perspective is our defense had something to do with it, UVa's is that they missed shots they should have made...plus ca change.

[Chillduck]

Yeah, the one down side of Tre Jones being back is that it makes us a worse shooting team. His absence meant more minutes for White and O'Connell, both of whom are better shooters. Against a team that doesn't turn it over and plays a well-organized defense, that's a potential area for concern.

Hopefully Jones can help offset that with better passing and forcing a turnover or two more to offset that. He's been obviously a fantastic player for us, but I do wonder if his limitations get exposed against a very disciplined, organized team like UVa. We'll see.

Jack White is 1-21 from 3 and has scored 11 points in his last 9 games. I will take Tre Jones' shooting.

[Rich]

Jack White is 1-21 from 3 and has scored 11 points in his last 9 games. I will take Tre Jones' shooting.

Tre seems to be able to get into the lane just under the free throw line (at the ACC logo), but always seems to put that floater off the front rim. If he could be just a bit stronger and hit that shot with more regularity, his shooting % would be so much improved.

[CDu]

Jack White is 1-21 from 3 and has scored 11 points in his last 9 games. I will take Tre Jones' shooting.

Read the rest of the thread. This has been thoroughly discussed. You are missing my point.

[uh_no]

Read the rest of the thread. This has been thoroughly discussed. You are missing my point.


Yeah, the one down side of Tre Jones being back is that it makes us a worse shooting team.


Your point was not initially clearly made. In your initial post, you also posited that game planning for the early game might have been more difficult because we had jack white shooting well...that may be true, but I'm guessing if Tony wanted to game plan for Tre or for not-Tre, he'd go with not-Tre every day of the week.

You also said what i linked here, which I think is where at least my massive disagreement lies. We're not a worse shooting team because Tre Jones is back and playing minutes, we're a worse shooting team because it seems that Jack White might not actually be a very good shooter, or more correctly, we have significantly less confidence that he is actually a good shooter.

[CDu]

Your point was not initially clearly made.

Read the rest of the thread. I acknowledged this point. But thank you for reiterating it after I had already acknowledged it.


You also said what i linked here, which I think is where at least my massive disagreement lies. We're not a worse shooting team because Tre Jones is back and playing minutes, we're a worse shooting team because it seems that Jack White might not actually be a very good shooter, or more correctly, we have significantly less confidence that he is actually a good shooter.

You are still missing my point apparently. I am comparing the situation in this game to the situation in that game. At the time, we were playing a starting five that appeared to have more shooting threats with White (who at the time appeared to be a good shooter) playing 30+ minutes. This time around, we don't have that luxury.

Is it also true that we'd not have that luxury WITHOUT Jones? Sure. Because, as you said, White has been in such a sustained downswing that he's no longer likely to be viewed as a dangerous shooter. But Jones is the one who is going to play 30+ minutes tomorrow and not White. So, that's the point of reference for this game.

In this game (given the players that we will likely play) compared with the last game (given the players we had at that time), the difference is more Jones and less O'Connell/White. If Jones was still out, I'd have made the comment differently. Probably something like this: "It will be interesting to see whether Bennett gives any respect to White as a shooter this time around, given how bad he has been at it lately..."

Now, does Jones bring other things to the table? Sure. I'm just noting one potential consequence. There are other potential consequences of having a more talented player playing more too (notably, probably better defense). The floor-spacing aspect is just one thing I'm interested in, as I suspect Bennett will be even more focused on packing the lane to begin with. And with our shooting being even less imposing that it was last time around, that's an area of interest/concern.

To summarize, you appear to be comparing tomorrow's game with Jones to tomorrow's game without Jones. I was comparing tomorrow's game with Jones to the last game.

[Wahoo2000]

I don't think I can recall a time when we were coming into a game vs a team that we'd already played once, where I'd seen MANY of the opponents games played, where I had LESS of a feel/intuition as to how the game would play out.

The variables are almost to numerous to mention:
-Duke being without Jones in the first game
-Duke played a very unusual style in the first game (switching 1-5 and going almost exclusively iso- on offense)
-UVA had been extremely consistent in our quality of play through the first 7 ACC contests, yet looked like a VERY different team in the last 2 games
-Jerome's status is HUGE and it seems like, even at this late point, he will be a game-time decision. Is it Belichick-like gamesmanship from Bennett? IF Jerome plays, will he be limited? Who knows?
-What chess moves will Bennett and K make, given the above?

The only real plusses I see for UVA heading into this contest are:
-Diakite and Huff have really shown some pretty steady improvement over the last couple of weeks. Those guys are *THIS* close to becoming very reliable 6-8ppg scoring options, with the ability to "go off" for as much as 12-15. UVA's own "death lineup" of Jerome/Guy/Hunter/Key and either of those 2 centers has potential to REALLY score the ball, while maintaining very good defensive flexibility (especially when Diakite is in).
-While EVERY road crowd gets up about as much as they can for an opponent, I don't think this Duke team has faced anything like the environment they'll encounter Saturday. Definitely a POSSIBILITY that it only amps them up, as usually great players will thrive in front of a hostile crowd. Still, hoping maybe it will get to at least one of the "super frosh" and a couple role players that PERHAPS they have a poor outing.
That's about it. Honestly, I have to give Duke the edge in ALL of the following ways-
Momentum - Duke, despite some slow starts, is still blowing out everyone they play, Jones seems to have rounded almost totally back into form, Reddish seems to be shooting with confidence, Barrett is still a near unstoppable iso- machine (though he might still be forcing things a tad much at times), and Zion is already cementing his NPOY and #1 pick status..... barely into February. Meanwhile, Guy is mired in a semi-slump, we've suddenly become prone to excessive turnovers, Clark seems like he MIGHT be running into the freshman wall, and he MIGHT be our primary ballhandler.
Coaching - I love Bennett. He is, IMO, a top 5 coach (at LEAST) in terms of the quality of program over the last 4-5 years. Probably my ONLY critique of him is that he almost trusts his system TOO much. When things aren't working, he WILL make a change, but perhaps a bit slower than I'd like to see. Meanwhile, K is probably the master at coming up with an innovative/unexpected gameplan as well as being able to go in a totally different direction at the drop of a hat if the game flow seems to require it. Just an unmatchable FEEL for the flow of the game, and how to interrupt an opponent's rhythm if they're even able to establish one.
Talent - Also doesn't hurt K's ability to try different things when he's fielding at least 3-4 guys every year that will be drafted, and especially this year, which seems like the most talent he's accumulated on one team in the 1-and-done era. Virginia has been steadily increasing the incoming talent (by recruiting ranking, if not by results - Brogdon and Harris are REALLY doing well this year, and they were a top-80ish prospect, and a 3-star guy, respectively. Guy/Jerome/Diakite/Hunter/Huff all ranked ahead of both of those two), but we're not in the same universe as Duke (who is?) in regards to talent/athleticism/all-around skill.

In all, just based on recent play, and the question marks surrounding Jerome's status, I'd have to give a significant edge to Duke. IF Jerome is 100% healthy, IF UVA returns to the caliber of play they exhibited before the NC State game, and IF Duke has a poor day shooting the 3, I like our chances. Just seems like a few too many "ifs" for my taste. Hopefully it's a well played and entertaining game all around, and we get to see at LEAST a 3rd matchup in the conference tourney.

[Kedsy]

Everyone seems to be assuming that we'll shoot extra-poorly from three against Virginia. But since Bennett's UVa teams have become top tier ACC, in their eight games against Duke, Duke has shot better than their average three times, worse than their average three times, and about the same twice:



Year Duke season Avg Duke game avg
2019 30.8 14.3
2018 37.2 26.7
2017 37.8 47.4
2016 38.5 36.4
2015 38.7 35.3
2014 39.5 45.5
2014 39.5 57.1
2013 39.9 32.0


So, obviously it could go either way, but there doesn't seem to be any valid reason to assume we'll shoot worse than our customary (for this season, anyway) 30%.

[Indoor66]

Everyone seems to be assuming that we'll shoot extra-poorly from three against Virginia. But since Bennett's UVa teams have become top tier ACC, in their eight games against Duke, Duke has shot better than their average three times, worse than their average three times, and about the same twice:



Year Duke season Avg Duke game avg
2019 30.8 14.3
2018 37.2 26.7
2017 37.8 47.4
2016 38.5 36.4
2015 38.7 35.3
2014 39.5 45.5
2014 39.5 57.1
2013 39.9 32.0


So, obviously it could go either way, but there doesn't seem to be any valid reason to assume we'll shoot worse than our customary (for this season, anyway) 30%.

My considered opinion, after reviewing all relevant data, is that either we will or we won't.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I don't think I can recall a time when we were coming into a game vs a team that we'd already played once, where I'd seen MANY of the opponents games played, where I had LESS of a feel/intuition as to how the game would play out.

The variables are almost to numerous to mention:
-Duke being without Jones in the first game
-Duke played a very unusual style in the first game (switching 1-5 and going almost exclusively iso- on offense)
-UVA had been extremely consistent in our quality of play through the first 7 ACC contests, yet looked like a VERY different team in the last 2 games
-Jerome's status is HUGE and it seems like, even at this late point, he will be a game-time decision. Is it Belichick-like gamesmanship from Bennett? IF Jerome plays, will he be limited? Who knows?
-What chess moves will Bennett and K make, given the above?

The only real plusses I see for UVA heading into this contest are:
-Diakite and Huff have really shown some pretty steady improvement over the last couple of weeks. Those guys are *THIS* close to becoming very reliable 6-8ppg scoring options, with the ability to "go off" for as much as 12-15. UVA's own "death lineup" of Jerome/Guy/Hunter/Key and either of those 2 centers has potential to REALLY score the ball, while maintaining very good defensive flexibility (especially when Diakite is in).
-While EVERY road crowd gets up about as much as they can for an opponent, I don't think this Duke team has faced anything like the environment they'll encounter Saturday. Definitely a POSSIBILITY that it only amps them up, as usually great players will thrive in front of a hostile crowd. Still, hoping maybe it will get to at least one of the "super frosh" and a couple role players that PERHAPS they have a poor outing.
That's about it. Honestly, I have to give Duke the edge in ALL of the following ways-
Momentum - Duke, despite some slow starts, is still blowing out everyone they play, Jones seems to have rounded almost totally back into form, Reddish seems to be shooting with confidence, Barrett is still a near unstoppable iso- machine (though he might still be forcing things a tad much at times), and Zion is already cementing his NPOY and #1 pick status.... barely into February. Meanwhile, Guy is mired in a semi-slump, we've suddenly become prone to excessive turnovers, Clark seems like he MIGHT be running into the freshman wall, and he MIGHT be our primary ballhandler.
Coaching - I love Bennett. He is, IMO, a top 5 coach (at LEAST) in terms of the quality of program over the last 4-5 years. Probably my ONLY critique of him is that he almost trusts his system TOO much. When things aren't working, he WILL make a change, but perhaps a bit slower than I'd like to see. Meanwhile, K is probably the master at coming up with an innovative/unexpected gameplan as well as being able to go in a totally different direction at the drop of a hat if the game flow seems to require it. Just an unmatchable FEEL for the flow of the game, and how to interrupt an opponent's rhythm if they're even able to establish one.
Talent - Also doesn't hurt K's ability to try different things when he's fielding at least 3-4 guys every year that will be drafted, and especially this year, which seems like the most talent he's accumulated on one team in the 1-and-done era. Virginia has been steadily increasing the incoming talent (by recruiting ranking, if not by results - Brogdon and Harris are REALLY doing well this year, and they were a top-80ish prospect, and a 3-star guy, respectively. Guy/Jerome/Diakite/Hunter/Huff all ranked ahead of both of those two), but we're not in the same universe as Duke (who is?) in regards to talent/athleticism/all-around skill.

In all, just based on recent play, and the question marks surrounding Jerome's status, I'd have to give a significant edge to Duke. IF Jerome is 100% healthy, IF UVA returns to the caliber of play they exhibited before the NC State game, and IF Duke has a poor day shooting the 3, I like our chances. Just seems like a few too many "ifs" for my taste. Hopefully it's a well played and entertaining game all around, and we get to see at LEAST a 3rd matchup in the conference tourney.

Another reminder that the UVA fans in this board are top notch. Thanks for your insights and perspective, and enjoy some spork.

[Ian]

2013, we shot worse, UVA was 49th in 3PD
2014, we shot better twice, UVA was 65th in 3PD
2015, we shot slightly worse, UVA was 25th in 3PD
2016, we shot slightly worse , UVA was 168th in 3PD
2017, we shot better, UVA was 29th in 3PD
2018, we shot worse, UVA was 9th in 3PD
2019, we shot worse, UVA is 1st in 3PD

It seems 2 of the 8 times both happened in 2014 when UVA had their 2nd worst 3PD in this stretch. Plus UVA's 3 point defense is elite this year.

My only hope is that UVA's oppoent 3P% is so bad this year (24.7%) that it's due for some regression to mean.The best 3P defense by anyone since 2008 was 26.9%, can UVA beat that by 2%?

[Kedsy]

My considered opinion, after reviewing all relevant data, is that either we will or we won't.

Exactly my point.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My considered opinion, after reviewing all relevant data, is that either we will or we won't.

I will go one step further and predict that the key to winning will be to score more points than the Cavaliers. If we can do that, I really like our chances to come out on top.

[Bluegrassdevil1]

I will go one step further and predict that the key to winning will be to score more points than the Cavaliers. If we can do that, I really like our chances to come out on top.

Despite the esteem and respect you have earned on DBR, I am going to have to call you out for omitting the other blatant "key" for Duke defeating UVa:

The Cavs ended the game with fewer points than Duke.

[DavidBenAkiva]

so many variables (health of guys), crafty coaching moves, anything could happen.
Having said that, I think that if Duke can hit 35% from the three point line, we win...

I know a lot has been written about how UVa shot poorly from 3 with wide open looks, but I think Duke's switching actually made some of their guys shoot a bit sooner than they would like.
That's basic hoops stuff...Duke's perspective is our defense had something to do with it, UVa's is that they missed shots they should have made...plus ca change.

Shooting 35% (or 7 of 20) from 3 would probably be a far higher threshold than necessary for Duke to win considering that Duke dropped 72 points on UVA while hitting only 2 of 14 3's in the first matchup.

What's really been odd to me is how well Duke has shot away from Cameron Indoor Stadium this year. There are sample size issues with this analysis, but here's Duke's 3P% and national ranking by location:

Home: 27.5% (344th)
All: 30.8% (307th)
Neutral: 33.9% (140th)
Away + Neutral: 36.4% (59th)
Away: 39.3% (17th)

Granted, the last category includes only 4 games to date. But Duke has been weirdly accurate on the road in conference play. My guess is that the poor home performance and well above average road performance is a lot of statistical white noise and that both will regress over the final month+ of regular season game to something closer to 32-33%.

[budwom]

Everyone seems to be assuming that we'll shoot extra-poorly from three against Virginia. But since Bennett's UVa teams have become top tier ACC, in their eight games against Duke, Duke has shot better than their average three times, worse than their average three times, and about the same twice:



Year Duke season Avg Duke game avg
2019 30.8 14.3
2018 37.2 26.7
2017 37.8 47.4
2016 38.5 36.4
2015 38.7 35.3
2014 39.5 45.5
2014 39.5 57.1
2013 39.9 32.0


So, obviously it could go either way, but there doesn't seem to be any valid reason to assume we'll shoot worse than our customary (for this season, anyway) 30%.

Not sure that "everyone assumes we'll shoot extra poorly" is a correct interpretation of what I read here, based on reading the last 40-50 posts.....speaking only for myself, I have no expectations, except that if we shoot reasonably well we'll win, and if we shoot poorly we probably won't.
I do think Bennett will force us to shoot threes given our 3P shooting woes in some (emphasis) recent games. Why wouldn't he?

[ElliottHoo]

Shooting 35% (or 7 of 20) from 3 would probably be a far higher threshold than necessary for Duke to win considering that Duke dropped 72 points on UVA while hitting only 2 of 14 3's in the first matchup.

What's really been odd to me is how well Duke has shot away from Cameron Indoor Stadium this year. There are sample size issues with this analysis, but here's Duke's 3P% and national ranking by location:

Home: 27.5% (344th)
All: 30.8% (307th)
Neutral: 33.9% (140th)
Away + Neutral: 36.4% (59th)
Away: 39.3% (17th)

Granted, the last category includes only 4 games to date. But Duke has been weirdly accurate on the road in conference play. My guess is that the poor home performance and well above average road performance is a lot of statistical white noise and that both will regress over the final month+ of regular season game to something closer to 32-33%.

If memory serves, weren’t 3 of those games vs Pitt, ND and FSU? I’m spacing on #4. I don’t know the stats, but those might be some bad teams at defending the 3.

Edit - Wait, was #4 Clemson? If so, I take it back.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

If memory serves, weren’t 3 of those games vs Pitt, ND and FSU? I’m spacing on #4. I don’t know the stats, but those might be some bad teams at defending the 3.

Edit - Wait, was #4 Clemson? If so, I take it back.

...and I think Duke's 3 point struggles have been mostly self inflicted.....firing up way too many early in games, early in the shot clock....and having almost no three point game with the trailer on the break....which is one of the highest percentage threes.....and having no one who likes the top of the key three....another very high percentage area generally.

[MChambers]

If memory serves, weren’t 3 of those games vs Pitt, ND and FSU? I’m spacing on #4. I don’t know the stats, but those might be some bad teams at defending the 3.

Edit - Wait, was #4 Clemson? If so, I take it back.

Not Clemson. ND, Pitt, FSU, and Wake. So not exactly killer teams, although FSU is pretty good, and we played half the game without Zion.

[LasVegas]

2013, we shot worse, UVA was 49th in 3PD
2014, we shot better twice, UVA was 65th in 3PD
2015, we shot slightly worse, UVA was 25th in 3PD
2016, we shot slightly worse , UVA was 168th in 3PD
2017, we shot better, UVA was 29th in 3PD
2018, we shot worse, UVA was 9th in 3PD
2019, we shot worse, UVA is 1st in 3PD

It seems 2 of the 8 times both happened in 2014 when UVA had their 2nd worst 3PD in this stretch. Plus UVA's 3 point defense is elite this year.

My only hope is that UVA's oppoent 3P% is so bad this year (24.7%) that it's due for some regression to mean.The best 3P defense by anyone since 2008 was 26.9%, can UVA beat that by 2%?

Where are these rankings from? I swear I read a Kenpom article awhile back that stated 3p% was useless when looking at defense. Do these rankings take into account something else?

[MChambers]

Where are these rankings from? I swear I read a Kenpom article awhile back that stated 3p% was useless when looking at defense. Do these rankings take into account something else?

I had the same question today, after seeing that UVa is #1 in 3P% (T-rank), at 24.7%. And I remember K saying after the first UVa game that UVa tries to get opponents to take bad three pointers.

[Steven43]

Thanks for your insights and perspective, and enjoy some spork.

Haha “enjoy some spork”. Speaking of (s)pork, I’m planning to grill bratwurst links and serve them on a hard roll with homemade sauerkraut and mustard for the UVA game. I think the sandwiches will pair very nicely with Paulaner Munich Helles Lager.
Blue Devils by 1 in a nail-biter. Can’t wait.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Haha “enjoy some spork”. Speaking of (s)pork, I’m planning to grill bratwurst links and serve them on a hard roll with homemade sauerkraut and mustard for the UVA game. I think the sandwiches will pair very nicely with Paulaner Munich Helles Lager.
Blue Devils by 1 in a nail-biter. Can’t wait.

Jerome may be out, will almost certainly will be limited (acc to J Will), due to the back thing. I don't think UVa can win with him not at 100%. He's very important to them, and has always played big against Duke.

[Steven43]

Jerome may be out, will almost certainly will be limited (acc to J Will), due to the back thing. I don't think UVa can win with him not at 100%. He's very important to them, and has always played big against Duke.
They don’t have a capable backup guard to fill in for Jerome?

[Bob Green]

They don’t have a capable backup guard to fill in for Jerome?

Kihei Clark is the backup. He is capable but still a step down from Jerome. For starters, Clark is 5'9" compared to Jerome's 6'5". Moreover, Jerome is an experienced Junior while Clark is a freshman. Big difference.

[MChambers]

Kihei Clark is the backup. He is capable but still a step down from Jerome. For starters, Clark is 5'9" compared to Jerome's 6'5". Moreover, Jerome is an experienced Junior while Clark is a freshman. Big difference.

UVa is very good and certainly can beat Duke without Jerome, or with him limited. They'd be worse off without Hunter (ask UMBC) or Guy, I think. But Jerome is important. He's also important for UVa against the Cheats on Monday.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

They don’t have a capable backup guard to fill in for Jerome?

Just capable won't beat Duke. Jerome normally plays extremely well against Duke, and some think he's their best player (I think Hunter is).

[robed deity]

Capable won't beat Duke. Jerome normally plays extremely well against Duke, and some think he's their best player (I think Hunter)

A home crowd and a motivated team can overcome an injury for a game. If he doesn't play, they'll miss Jerome, but UVA will still play really well imo.

[UrinalCake]

Not Clemson. ND, Pitt, FSU, and Wake. So not exactly killer teams, although FSU is pretty good, and we played half the game without Zion.

But the home games include a ton of cupcakes. So these numbers are really surprising. Maybe the team isn't as focused when they have the crowd behind them? I agree that we take a lot of "bad" threes, especially in the first half. Almost like we're trying to send a message to their defense that we're going to take threes even if we miss them.

[richardjackson199]

Jerome may be out, will almost certainly will be limited (acc to J Will), due to the back thing. I don't think UVa can win with him not at 100%. He's very important to them, and has always played big against Duke.

Jerome is awesome, but folks were saying the same thing about Duke playing a white-hot UVA in Cameron without our pg Tre Jones. Clark is speedy and crafty: he could create some matchup problems for us if we try to switch 1-5 again (safe assumption). UVA has some depth. I'm guessing a sharp gambler may not be any quicker to take Duke and the points this time than they were to take UVA and the points in Cameron without Tre. (Not that I know ANYTHING about sharp gambling.) But when a crucial guy is out (like Justin Robinson Va Tech at State), just assuming an obvious outcome is very dangerous. The more obvious it seems, the less likely it seems to be.

Regardless, I think the key for Duke is to try to shut down Kyle Guy as much as possible. Will be tough at JPJ, but defense defines our team.

I just hope we win! A 1 point win would be Huge for possible seeding implications. Work still to do vs the Cheats and the next several tough games. But a Duke win would be enormous. Can't wait!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

A home crowd and a motivated team can overcome an injury for a game. If he doesn't play, they'll miss Jerome, but UVA will still play really well imo.

I think it's funny how people assume that I'm talking about "an injury" - I see something different with Jerome and Duke. Jerome has hit big shots against Duke, and really seems to lead UVa against Duke. IMO, and I may be proven wrong, a loss of Jerome is not "just an injury."

[Indoor66]

Exactly my point.

And stated so well...

...and restated so well. :cool:

[Bob Green]

Just capable won't beat Duke. Jerome normally plays extremely well against Duke, and some think he's their best player (I think Hunter is).


Jerome has hit big shots against Duke, and really seems to lead UVa against Duke.

1. In the loss to Duke at Cameron, Jerome scored 14 points but was 1-5 on 3 PT FG and 1-3 on FT.

2. Last season, in Virginia's 65-63 win over Duke, Jerome was 5-15 on FG, 2-6 on 3 PT FG and 1-2 on FT. He had 7 assists against 1 TO and scored 13 points.

3. As a freshman, Virginia lost to Duke 65-55, Jerome scored 13 points on 5-8 shooting. He was 2-4 on 3 PT FG.

Jerome's 7 assist in Virginia's win over Duke last year certainly jumps out and I certainly cannot counter your "Jerome has hit big shots against Duke" statement; however, the box scores do not support a conclusion that Jerome plays "extremely well" against Duke. He's been solid at best. Perhaps average.

Jerome is a very talented player and Virginia is a much better team with him but he isn't some kind of Blue Devil killer.

I hope Jerome plays today because I want to beat Virginia at their best. As I stated in a previous post, Clark is a capable point guard but he is a step down from Jerome. Moreover, if Jerome plays, Virginia has Jerome and Clark which is a big deal for a team that isn't all that deep to start.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Jerome is playing.

Having said that, can you imagine a storyline better than “Duke beats UVA without Jones, UVA beats Duke without Jerome, rematch in the ACC championship at full strength”?

[Billy Dat]

In all, just based on recent play, and the question marks surrounding Jerome's status, I'd have to give a significant edge to Duke. IF Jerome is 100% healthy, IF UVA returns to the caliber of play they exhibited before the NC State game, and IF Duke has a poor day shooting the 3, I like our chances. Just seems like a few too many "ifs" for my taste. Hopefully it's a well played and entertaining game all around, and we get to see at LEAST a 3rd matchup in the conference tourney.

I appreciate this "cold light of day" take. While a fan that closely watches a team will always have a, perhaps, overly critical eye, it is also an eye that is more informed than a writer trying to cover the entire sport or conference. I haven't seen any national writers point out any of the nuances you have in this post, other than to comment on Jerome's potential to play or not. I think the cold light of day take for us Duke fans centers around our shooting, but that is an easy and obvious flaw to call out.

[brevity]

Jerome is playing.

Having said that, can you imagine a storyline better than “Duke beats UVA without Jones, UVA beats Duke without Jerome, rematch in the ACC championship at full strength”?

Sure, but I have an active imagination.

“UNC Grows Conscience, Dismantles Athletic Program”

“Bus Backfires, Runs Over Foot of Roy Williams”

“Coach Bobby Knight Apologizes... for Everything”

“TV Commentator Dick Vitale Takes a Vow of Silence”

“Referees to Undergo Mandatory LASIK Surgery During Offseason”

[CameronDuke]

Virginia is currently the favorite tonight at -1.5 over Duke.

Let's Go Duke!

[DarkstarWahoo]

This is where I point out that I turned down a free ticket tonight because it’s my wife’s birthday. The things we do for love...

[Stray Gator]

This is where I point out that I turned down a free ticket tonight because it’s my wife’s birthday. The things we do for love...

Here is your opportunity to demonstrate the magnitude of your love through selfless sacrifice -- offer her the free ticket. :rolleyes:

[Indoor66]

Here is your opportunity to demonstrate the magnitude of your love through selfless sacrifice -- offer her the free ticket. :rolleyes:

Now we double the insanity. 😂

[subzero02]

This is where I point out that I turned down a free ticket tonight because it’s my wife’s birthday. The things we do for love...

I think meat loaf best expresses my sentiments on this scenario...

[CameronBlue]

I think meat loaf best expresses my sentiments on this scenario...

Or if you're vegan that beet loaf in the Super Bowl commercial looked appetizing.

[Troublemaker]

Where are these rankings from? I swear I read a Kenpom article awhile back that stated 3p% was useless when looking at defense. Do these rankings take into account something else?


I had the same question today, after seeing that UVa is #1 in 3P% (T-rank), at 24.7%. And I remember K saying after the first UVa game that UVa tries to get opponents to take bad three pointers.

I think the current consensus dork opinion (if there is such a thing) is that defenses have some control over opponent 3-pt percentage even if it's largely still luck. This comes from listening to / reading a decent amount of dorks. Wish I could link something off the top of my head.

Certainly there are teams (like UVA) that seem to consistently hold opponents to low percentages year after year.

[dukelion]

Obviously a big game but it looks like the biggest ever match up according to the computers as well.

70.87 AdjEM (2019 combined Duke & UVA)
70.63 AdjEM (2015 combined Kentucky & Wisconsin)

Basically the computers are saying that this is the highest level match up in college basketball history....well at least in the KenPom era.

Am I the only one who finds this extremely interesting?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Seth just picked Duke to win.......

J Will was oh for three on Gameday - picked UVa.....(after picking Duke last night)

I don't know if this is good or bad karma...

[DavidBenAkiva]

Obviously a big game but it looks like the biggest ever match up according to the computers as well.

70.87 AdjEM (2019 combined Duke & UVA)
70.63 AdjEM (2015 combined Kentucky & Wisconsin)

Basically the computers are saying that this is the highest level match up in college basketball history...well at least in the KenPom era.

Am I the only one who finds this extremely interesting?

I, too, find this interesting.

EDIT: I don't have a subscription to KenPom, but is it possible that Duke and Maryland were 1-2 in the 2001-02 season during one of the regular season games?

In the tournament, the other times when 1 and 2 faced other include the Duke-UConn Final Four game from 2004, UNC and Illinois in 2005 (and possibly one of the Duke-UNC games during the regular season), Kansas-Memphis in 2008, and Villanova-UNC in 2016.

[uh_no]

Obviously a big game but it looks like the biggest ever match up according to the computers as well.

70.87 AdjEM (2019 combined Duke & UVA)
70.63 AdjEM (2015 combined Kentucky & Wisconsin)

Basically the computers are saying that this is the highest level match up in college basketball history...well at least in the KenPom era.

Am I the only one who finds this extremely interesting?

nice find.

Should be noted that there are SOME pitfalls with such an analysis...like how the national average differs from year to year, and how the distribution of team quality across the range of all 300+ teams could affect the outliers, but given these two teams have been efficiency beasts this year, I'm not surprised.

That said, how many minutes into the game before someone tries to rip our effort when our offensive efficiency is dragged down by their defense while ignoring our defense doing the same to them?

[Bob Green]

Basically the computers are saying that this is the highest level match up in college basketball history...well at least in the KenPom era.

Am I the only one who finds this extremely interesting?

I'm glad you included the "KenPom era" qualifier. On January 20, 1968 #2 Houston defeated #1 UCLA 71-69. The "Game of the Century" was a great basketball game with Elvin Hayes prevailing over Lew Alcindor.

The rematch on March 22, 1968 was not even a contest. UCLA blew the doors off Houston 101-69.

[DarkstarWahoo]

UVA students are now a perfect 4 for 4 on the Gameday halfcourt shots (probably all before Duke matchups). That might be the most remarkable stat from today.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

UVA students are now a perfect 4 for 4 on the Gameday halfcourt shots (probably all before Duke matchups). That might be the most remarkable stat from today.

I saw that....from the file of "things that make you go WTF?"

[bigperm13]

nice find.

Should be noted that there are SOME pitfalls with such an analysis...like how the national average differs from year to year, and how the distribution of team quality across the range of all 300+ teams could affect the outliers, but given these two teams have been efficiency beasts this year, I'm not surprised.

That said, how many minutes into the game before someone tries to rip our effort when our offensive efficiency is dragged down by their defense while ignoring our defense doing the same to them?

Zero minutes.

[Bob Green]

I've no idea who the refs will be this afternoon, but Jaime Luckie is working the VT at Clemson game so we do not have to worry about his old, fat butt missing calls due to being late moving up the court.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I got some pretty serious ribbing on my take that a Jerome injury situation would be major.....well FWIW (and it may not be worth a whole lot) all four of ESPN's writers/analysts who predicted the Duke game made the Jerome injury (or non injury) a major part of their prediction - one writer predicting UVA - but saying "Scrap all that" if Jerome is injured.

So I may be crazy, but in pretty good company.

[uh_no]

I got some pretty serious ribbing on my take that a Jerome injury situation would be major....well FWIW (and it may not be worth a whole lot) all four of ESPN's writers/analysts who predicted the Duke game made the Jerome injury (or non injury) a major part of their prediction - one writer predicting UVA - but saying "Scrap all that" if Jerome is injured.

So I may be crazy, but in pretty good company.

yeah you can't neuter a guy with 24% usage and NOT expect it to impact the game. Regardless of whether he's been a duke-killer in the past, it's not like you can simply ignore him because his numbers haven't been exceptional...he's a big part of their team and removing him is impactful.

Now, whether that affects their chances, who knows...lots of people were writing off duke without Tre (heck, one poster went off the deep end and claimed "our ACC regular season chances will be done after this weekend"), and we obviously worked that one out....

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

[brevity]

I've no idea who the refs will be this afternoon, but Jaime Luckie is working the VT at Clemson game so we do not have to worry about his old, fat butt missing calls due to being late moving up the court.

Roger Ayers, Bill Covington, and Tony Henderson are working the Miami-UNC game, according to this sportswriter (https://twitter.com/RL_Bynum/status/1094252010541666310) who apparently keeps track of these things for UNC.

[ElliottHoo]

I got some pretty serious ribbing on my take that a Jerome injury situation would be major...well FWIW (and it may not be worth a whole lot) all four of ESPN's writers/analysts who predicted the Duke game made the Jerome injury (or non injury) a major part of their prediction - one writer predicting UVA - but saying "Scrap all that" if Jerome is injured.

So I may be crazy, but in pretty good company.

I don’t know how someone could say Jerome’s injury won’t be a major factor. He hasn’t necessarily been a “Duke killer” as some have claimed. He’s had a couple big, memorable, plays but overall he’s merely been fine vs Duke.

But overall he’s one of UVA’s 3 best players and arguably the one most central to UVA’s offense running smoothly. Against Miami, it sometimes felt Jerome is the only one on UVA who knows how to run plays for people.

Plus, the guy backing him up (Clark) is fun and a great story, but he’s a true freshman who was ranked #330-ish among high school prospects and has been up and down lately. UVA should be fine defensively with Jerome out, but the O could take a hit.

Of course, even with Jerome out, UVA might hit everything anyway, but I’d say his presence is worth a couple points on the line.

[devildeac]

I've no idea who the refs will be this afternoon, but Jaime Luckie is working the VT at Clemson game so we do not have to worry about his old, fat butt missing calls due to being late moving up the court.


Roger Ayers, Bill Covington, and Tony Henderson are working the Miami-UNC game, according to this sportswriter (https://twitter.com/RL_Bynum/status/1094252010541666310) who apparently keeps track of these things for UNC.

I'm starting to think we'll see at least tv teddy and/or eades as one of the administrators of this tussle.

[Steven43]

Sure, but I have an active imagination.

“UNC Grows Conscience, Dismantles Athletic Program”

“Bus Backfires, Runs Over Foot of Roy Williams”

“Coach Bobby Knight Apologizes... for Everything”

“TV Commentator Dick Vitale Takes a Vow of Silence”

“Referees to Undergo Mandatory LASIK Surgery During Offseason”

Funny stuff. Had me chuckling out loud. Do you perform stand-up on weekends?

[Kedsy]

I don’t know how someone could say Jerome’s injury won’t be a major factor.

Absolutely nobody thinks Jerome's injury won't be a major factor.

One poster stated, "I don't think UVa can win with him not at 100%," and other posters were saying that's not true, that UVa still could win, even with a limited or absent Jerome. It'll just be harder, that's all. Tre Jones absence in the first Duke/UVa game speaks to the fact that an injury, even to a key player, doesn't tell the whole story.

[uh_no]

Absolutely nobody thinks Jerome's injury won't be a major factor.

One poster stated, "I don't think UVa can win with him not at 100%," and other posters were saying that's not true, that UVa still could win, even with a limited or absent Jerome. It'll just be harder, that's all. Tre Jones absence in the first Duke/UVa game speaks to the fact that an injury, even to a key player, doesn't tell the whole story.

especially when you have a team full of other talented players and a great coach, which both of these programs do.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Absolutely nobody thinks Jerome's injury won't be a major factor.


And yet, they felt the need to ridicule my statement that Va won't win without Jerome...so I mean, if they thought Jerome's injury would be a major factor, then there would have been no need to do that. Words mean things, as does context.....as well as numbers.

[Kedsy]

And yet, they felt the need to ridicule my statement that Va won't win without Jerome...so I mean, if they thought Jerome's injury would be a major factor, then there would have been no need to do that. Words mean things, as does context...as well as numbers.

The idea that the injury could be a major factor and the idea that the injury will preclude UVa from winning are two entirely different and separate ideas. They don't mean the same thing, not even close. You get that, right? Logic and reading comprehension are very different from numbers. You get that too, right?

[Wahoo2000]

I, too, find this interesting.

EDIT: I don't have a subscription to KenPom, but is it possible that Duke and Maryland were 1-2 in the 2001-02 season during one of the regular season games?

In the tournament, the other times when 1 and 2 faced other include the Duke-UConn Final Four game from 2004, UNC and Illinois in 2005 (and possibly one of the Duke-UNC games during the regular season), Kansas-Memphis in 2008, and Villanova-UNC in 2016.

So this is before Kenpom, but I have to think those matchups between Duke and UNC in 1998 (i think) when they were top 3 in (again, I think) every matchup would HAVE to be extremely high not only in quality, but also in anticipation/ratings.

I can't even remember all the players, but off the top of my head I think UNC had Jamison, Carter, Cota, & Shammond Williams, and Duke had Wojo, Carrawell, McLeod, & that crazy frosh class with Brand/Battier/Avery/et al. Those games were bananas. I also happen to remember that Virginia got the privilege/torture of facing the#1 team in the country 5 times that season. In EVERY matchup vs Duke and UNC, UVA faced the #1 team in the polls. I think we lost those 5 games by about 100 points too.... yuck.

[MrPoon]

I have tapped into the cosmic ether and have a sense for this game. I believe Duke wins by a score that looks closer than the final number makes it look with White playing a key figure in the game. His 8 ish points will come at key times. K doesn’t do the switch everything approach nearly as much as the first and Duke wins the Rb battle with Salt limited by foul trouble.


Or it could be the pre-game Dos Equis.

[weezie]

Zoubs has a bunch of new tattoos.

[Duke1994]

I'm starting to think we'll see at least tv teddy and/or eades as one of the administrators of this tussle.


I believe Mike Eades is still out with an injury.

https://www.bdtonline.com/sports/eades-leaves-virginia-tech-game-with-apparent-knee-injury/article_a2a15324-1c6a-11e9-8451-9fbf50c72a14.html

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[DarkstarWahoo]

A friend in the building tells me LeBron is there supporting his friend Coach K.

[84Duke]

Jerome on bench per Gene Wang/Wash Post. Clark to start.

[akg4y]

Jerome on bench per Gene Wang/Wash Post. Clark to start.


He's wrong...


https://twitter.com/UVAMensHoops/status/1094365937120235523?s=19

[duketaylor]

Ready to Rumble!!!

GO DEVILS!!!

[brlftz]

Jerome starting tonight

[left_hook_lacey]

Smoke and mirrors. Virginia gets stomped tonight.

[left_hook_lacey]

Virginia is not that good. It's a facade.

[duketaylor]

Sorry, not a facade. Very good/great team.

[scottdude8]

I said it since Canada... RJ has the capacity to be a good shooter despite it not clicking early. It’s certainly coming together today, and his shot looks PURE.

[left_hook_lacey]

Sorry, not a facade. Very good/great team.

Good team. Not great. Will get killed by talented one and done teams, just like tonight.

They are fun to watch, until the big boys come to town.

[dragoneye776]

Good for Jack White's confidence to make a 3, even if during dead play

[rsvman]

Who is this good 3-point shooting team, and what have they done with the Duke Blue Devils?

[arnie]

I said it since Canada... RJ has the capacity to be a good shooter despite it not clicking early. It’s certainly coming together today, and his shot looks PURE.

Insane start. Hope 2nd half is even Steven.

[duketaylor]

K's made some great adjustments at half this year, we'll see what he tries differently later. Very entertaining game.
Thought, maybe not Bolden on Guy outside; Guy hurt us with a few 3's out there with step-backs w Bolden on him.

[ChrisP]

Well, not the game I expected, for sure. Glad we're up 4 at the half but really feels like it should have been more. That said, you just knew UVA would come back to cut into the 12 point margin - they're too good, too proud, and too well-coached to just fold up (especially at home). I just wish they had missed maybe ONE of those well-guarded three's they made in that last little spurt before halftime. Incredible shots all around.

And I love Zion, but he's simply not (yet) a good enough ball handler to dribble into traffic - or at least UVA-level traffic. I didn't care for that end of half play call or execution. Could have been a nice momentum builder to hit a shot to end the half there. Oh well, Go Duke and let's hope we continue this high level of play in the 2nd!

[rsvman]

Our shooting will likely revert to the mean in the second half. I hope coach K is coming up with a new plan for scoring in the second half.

[SCMatt33]

Given how tight uva’s defense has been, Duke has done well to be up. Obviously hitting 8 threes will do that, but most of them were pretty decent looks, and Duke certainly didn’t hit more tough contested shots than UVA did.

The other factor is that the refs are calling a pretty loose game in the paint. Certainly calling it the same both ways, but a loose whistle is definitely not to our advantage because you can’t just bully your way to the line.

[ncexnyc]

Having seen the end of both the UNC and FSU games all I can say is the team better not let it go down to the wire as UVA will feast on home cooking officiating.

The defense looked impressive for most of the first half, but they seemed a step slow near the end and it cost us. Should be a fun 2nd half.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Like I said, I hope we don't start the game trying to prove we can shoot three pointers.

:eye roll:

[MChambers]

And I love Zion, but he's simply not (yet) a good enough ball handler to dribble into traffic - or at least UVA-level traffic. I didn't care for that end of half play call or execution. Could have been a nice momentum builder to hit a shot to end the half there. Oh well, Go Duke and let's hope we continue this high level of play in the 2nd!

I was surprised to Zion take the last shot/possession. Has he done that before this year? It’s good to have an option besides RJ. Zion will learn from the experience.

[Wahoo2000]

LOL at the ENTIRE world saying all week,

"Just pack it in and make duke shoot over you"

-Duke shoots 8-11 from 3.

It WAS entertaining listening to Bilas throughout the first half. Early on it was, "If you're UVA you live with that shot". By mid-first half it was, "Duke is hot right now but they'll cool off, stick with your game plan". By the last 5-6 minutes it was, "WOW! Duke is on FIRE" (with the unspoken shoulder shrug like, sorry UVA - it's not your day).

Here's to hoping you guys end the game under 40% from 3, which is the only way I think we stay in it, because those Guy step-back, fade-away 3s are probably not sustainable as an offense and I don't know if Diakite is coming back, which will REALLY hurt.

[left_hook_lacey]

LOL at the ENTIRE world saying all week,

"Just pack it in and make duke shoot over you"

-Duke shoots 8-11 from 3.

It WAS entertaining listening to Bilas throughout the first half. Early on it was, "If you're UVA you live with that shot". By mid-first half it was, "Duke is hot right now but they'll cool off, stick with your game plan". By the last 5-6 minutes it was, "WOW! Duke is on FIRE" (with the unspoken shoulder shrug like, sorry UVA - it's not your day).

Here's to hoping you guys end the game under 40% from 3, which is the only way I think we stay in it, because those Guy step-back, fade-away 3s are probably not sustainable as an offense and I don't know if Diakite is coming back, which will REALLY hurt.

Because Virginia isn't on our level. It's as simple as that.

[Selover]

Jump ball for Barrett, And 1 for Guy. Got it.

[gocanes0506]

Jump ball for Barrett, And 1 for Guy. Got it.

There is the make up call. No foul on Guy there.

[Sluggo]

High quality game.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

These 3s are insane. Save something for the rest of the season.

[Sluggo]

These 3s are insane. Save something for the rest of the season.

These are the ones they have been saving.

[left_hook_lacey]

There is the make up call. No foul on Guy there.

And make up make up late whistle on the foul call for Jones. Is it just me, or have the refs been letting them play I a lot of games this year?

[Selover]

This officiating is atrocious.

[wavedukefan70s]

This officiating is atrocious.

Jerome initiated that crap.

[rsvman]

This officiating is atrocious.

Both ways, though, imo.

Just have to play even or thereabouts for a few more minutes and we escape with the win.

[downeastdad]

Every Duke game I watch with Bilas, I wonder where he REALLY went to school.

[-jk]

This officiating is atrocious.

They’re “letting them play”...

-jk

[MChambers]

Both ways, though, imo.

Just have to play even or thereabouts for a few more minutes and we escape with the win.

Who are the officials?

[Selover]

Both ways, though, imo.

Just have to play even or thereabouts for a few more minutes and we escape with the win.

I agree. I drives me nuts when games are called so loosely.

[ChrisP]

Hope we can hang on here. Would really be a shame to lose this one. And am I the only one who wishes Jay Bilas would scrutinize every foul that goes against Duke as much as he does that ones that go in our favor?

[wavedukefan70s]

This officiating is atrocious.

The Tennessee Florida game was real bad .in Tennessee's favor.they are a good team but not top 4 in the ACC.

[Selover]

What. A. Block.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Cam gotta take a charge there.

[gocanes0506]

Another odd late call where the refs seems to wait until they see the results of the shot first.

[downeastdad]

Salt is another of the Aussie animals named "Jack". Trying to be funny.

[WHOneedsSOX]

Make free throws, please.

[DarkstarWahoo]

This is a lot more indicative of the gap between the teams than the first game. Congrats, y’all.

[dball]

Salt is another of the Aussie animals named "Jack". Trying to be funny.

Salt is a Kiwi but born in London.