MBB: Duke v St John's (noon on 2/2/19, ESPN) Pre- and In-Game thread

[Saratoga2]

Haven't seen anything yet on the upcomng game on Saturday, but we old retired guys talk about the games in the swimmming pool and one of my doctor friends is an alum of St JOohn. He is very high on Shamorie Ponds who is a quick and clever point/shooting guard who sounds like a handful for Tre. In general he indicates the JOhnnies tend to play small and quick and just came off a Creighton win with Chris Mullin using his small lineup effectively. The bulk of the minutes in that game were played by Ponds, Mustapha Heron a 6'5", 210 Lb guard, Bryan Trimble a 6'3", 220 Lb guard, L.J. Figeroa a 6'6', 225 Lb forward and Marvin Clark a 6'7" 225 Lb forward. Sounds like Duke wll be going small, which for tthem is still much bigger than the Johnnies will put on the floor. Should be an interesting game as they always give Duke a competitive game.

[Native]

[My friend] is very high on Shamorie Ponds who is a quick and clever point/shooting guard who sounds like a handful for Tre.

Ponds torched us last year in the Garden. I think Tre will be up to the task defensively, though.

[robed deity]

I'm thinking (hoping?) this version of Duke will be a tough matchup for the Johnnies.

[DavidBenAkiva]

St. John's is an interesting team this year. The Red Storm will most likely end up in the NCAA Tournament in Chris Mullin's 4th year as head coach. After going 16-17 last year and just 4-14 (including an inexplicable stretch of defeating both Duke and Villanova in one week to end an 11-game losing streak) in conference, St. John's has matched the season and conference win totals so far this year after defeating Creighton last night.

While this is a very different Duke team this season, it is also a different St. John's team. Shamorie Ponds is back and playing better than ever. Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron, a 6'5" guard, is the other headliner. He is a great three-point shooter, making 43.5% of his 85 attempts on the season. Teammates LJ Figueroa and Marvin Clark II can also shoot the ball very well. Figueroa and Clark are the frontcourt, although they are listed at 6'6" and 6'7", respectively. Gone from last season is Tariq Owens, the shot-blocking center that now plays his games in Lubbock for Texas Tech. Owens, along with Kassoum Yakwe and Amar Alibegovic were the rim protectors last season, part of the reason St. John's forced a lot of turnovers and blocked a lot of shots a year ago. While this team can score, they do not generate many steals or hardly any blocks. And they do not even try to rebound their misses, ranking 341st in the nation in offensive rebound percentage.

This should be a fast-paced and fun game. Duke shouldn't have any problems scoring at the rim with Zion, R.J., and Marques having a serious advantage against Clark and Figueroa inside. If Duke can limit the looks from 3 and force St. John's to settle for mid-range jumpers instead, the game could get out of hand. St. John's likes to play fast, which should play right into Duke's advantages. Let's just hope that Sharmorie Ponds left his magic in Madison Square Garden last season.

[roywhite]

Ponds torched us last year in the Garden. I think Tre will be up to the task defensively, though.

As I noted in another thread, Ponds had a huge game last night (Weds. 1/30) on the road vs Creighton. 26 points on 10-17 from the field including 4-8 from 3, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, and 6 steals (also had 6 turnovers).
The prospect of the Jones vs Ponds matchup is delicious.

Additional note -- is this Chris Mullin's first visit to Cameron since he was (unsuccessfully) recruited by that new coach Mike Krzyzewski?

[MChambers]

Marvin Clark II is a transfer from MSU. He's big, but won't seem big next to Zion or Bolden. But, since this is his fifth year in college, he's old. As Coach K would say, he's a man. Luckily, he, like his team, tends to foul at a pretty high rate (4.6/40).

[Rich]

Marvin Clark II is a transfer from MSU. He's big, but won't seem big next to Zion or Bolden. But, since this is his fifth year in college, he's old. As Coach K would say, he's a man. Luckily, he, like his team, tends to foul at a pretty high rate (4.6/40).

Here's hoping the officials are up to the task of calling them. With our guys and our house I feel confident about this game UNLESS it's called in a way that doesn't allow our driving game to be appropriately rewarded with free throws as fouls occur. Also not crazy about the Noon start but I guess that cuts both ways.

[CDu]

St. John’s is a team in a bit of transition, as graduation and transfers have somewhat depleted the roster to the point that their style looks a bit different from last year. They have firepower on offense, but aren’t great defensively. On defense, they are quick and aggressive and can force some turnovers, but that’s about the only thing they do well on that side of the ball. They are undersized, which gives them some positional flexibility, but they just aren’t great on that end. On offense, they are a good 3pt shooting team, and they don't turn the ball over at all. They rebound very poorly on offense. Overall, their offense is solid but the defense is mediocre.

The Johnnies are undersized but pretty skilled and athletic in their starting lineup. They will try to run their starters as much as they can, because those five can all play. But they really lack size and have no quality depth, which is why they haven’t quite stood out this year. Still, they have NBA talent at multiple positions, so they shouldn’t be taken lightly. Last year’s loss should serve as a warning, as they have improved offensively for sure. This could be a high-scoring affair as they play fast and can score, but will likely have trouble defending us as well.

Centers: The Johnnies don’t really have any depth here as they lost Tariq Owens (6'11", 205lb grad transfer to Texas Tech) to grad transfer. In fact, they don’t start a center at all, and the only one who plays any meaningful minutes is Sedee Keita (6’9”, 240lb sophomore transfer from South Carolina). Keita is long and athletic, but VERY raw. The only thing he does well at the moment is block shots. But he fouls a ton and plays limited minutes as a result. Josh Roberts (6’9”, 210lb freshman) is the “break in case of emergency” option. He would be WAY overmatched if he was forced to take the floor though, and he very rarely plays.

Forwards: Marvin Clark (6'7", 230lb senior transfer from Michigan State) is the PF/C, and offers solid strength and athleticism. Clark is a solid defensive rebounder and isn't a bad positional defender. He also provides a nice dynamic as a stretch 4, although he technically plays the 5 most of the time. He's a guy we can't forget about on the perimeter, and with St John's slashing guards that's a real possibility. Clark is pretty much the only true forward on the team. It is amazing how little depth they have in their frontcourt.

Wings: Whereas the Johnnies have no frontcourt depth, they have a LOT of wing options. The leader of the pack is Mustapha Heron (6’5”, 220lb junior transfer from Auburn). Heron is a big, physical, athletic lefty wing who was a top-end prospect in high school and flirted with the NBA draft last summer before transferring to SJU. He scores at all 3 levels and is an elite shooter from 3. Heron will likely play in the NBA next year as he has an ideal SG size and skill set. Alongside Heron in the starting lineup is LJ Figueroa (6’6”, 195lb sophomore JuCo transfer). Figeroa was a top-100 recruit who went the JuCo route and was an All-American last year before coming to SJU. He can can really score from anywhere on the court and has a great feel for the game. Defensively, he’s not super-athletic, but he has really long arms and can be disruptive. He’s also a solid rebounder and has a knack for picking up steals with his long arms and bball IQ. Off the bench, the Red Storm bring Bryan Trimble Jr (6’3”, 220lb sophomore). Trimble was a terrific athlete and shooter coming out of high school who has put on about 30 lbs since arriving at SJU. He hasn’t quite made the adjustment to the college game, and has been exclusively a catch-and-shoot guy from 3 due to limited ballhandling skills. Unfortunately for him, his 3pt shot hasn’t started falling consistently in his career, but he's another guy who may still become a better shooter than his current numbers suggest. Trimble plays relatively sparingly. If necessary, Greg Williams Jr (6’2”, 190lb freshman) will play as the 8th man. Williams is a great athlete who hasn’t quite seen his skills catch up. He’s a developmental player at this point and just gives energy minutes for now.

Guards: Shamorie Ponds (6'1", 180lb junior) and Justin Simon (6'5", 215lb junior transfer from Arizona) share the PG job. Ponds is the team's star. He's a score-first lefty PG who is having a monster year from the field after an off-year shooting last year. He's a dangerous scorer from anywhere, as we likely remember from last year. He also gets a lot of steals with his quickness and tenacity, and isn't a bad rebounder for his size. He's almost certainly going to the NBA this summer and is an absolute stud in pretty much all areas. Simon is another top-40 recruit with terrific athleticism. He's a bit of an all-purpose guy, who rebounds extremely well and also picks up some steals. Simon has a bit of a Justise Winslow feel to his game, with a little more ballhandling polish. These two guys are a handful – especially Ponds.

[Kedsy]

While this team can score, they do not generate many steals or hardly any blocks. And they do not even try to rebound their misses, ranking 341st in the nation in offensive rebound percentage.

They're also at best mediocre (189th in the country) at opposing three-point percentage. Meaning they're bad at taking advantage of our two biggest weaknesses (three point shooting and defensive rebounding). Plus they like a fast-paced game, which should be refreshing for our team after a few weeks of opponents that only want to slow things down.

[thedukelamere]

Would a lock-down performance on Shamorie create some DPOY buzz for Tre? I know it's a long shot, but a man can dream.

[Neals384]

I watched the Johnnies take down Creighton on the road on Wednesday, and they did look very good on offense, shooting 57% with 41% on 3 pointers.

StJ's did take a fair number of longer 2 pt shots, but hit them at a high rate. Nothing about their D was particularly notable. Creighton, one of the best 3-pt shooting teams in the country at 41.7%, shot only 26% from 3 and it didn't really seem like St.J's D was causing the misses. An average shooting night would have made this a close game.

St.J only took 4 free throws in the game on only 8 Creighton personals. I hope this means one of Duke's weaknesses - key players in foul trouble - will not be a factor.

Ponds had a terrific game, as noted above, but his 6 TOs and 4 personals give me hope that Tre can give him fits. Clark hit 3 out of 5 threes and added 7 rebounds. I was impressed with Figeroa - a crafty player who can create. He was only 1 of 5 from 3, but hit all 6 of his 2 pt shots along with 5 boards, 3 assists and 2 steals. Heron piled up the stats with 17 points and 5 boards, but also 5 TOs. The 5th starter, Simon, played only 7 minutes for unknown reasons. Trimble got his minutes and hit 3 of 5 3 ptrs but also had 4 personals. As noted above, Keita is a big body but quite raw. He will go in the air at any fake, even from someone he's not guarding. He picked up 4 fouls in only 8 minutes. Look for Zion to take advantage when Keita is in the game.

[richardjackson199]

So let's not have a repeat of last year. Let's not have a repeat offender of our last non-conference loss in Cameron. Let's not let Ponds go Bootsy in Cameron.

No deja vu, please, on... Groundhog Day :eek:

(fortunately Shamorie will see a Shadow, named Tre)

[ChillinDuke]

St. John's poses a real threat to Duke's current 146-game non-conference home winning streak. That's right, 146 games.

Worth taking a moment to reflect on the insanity of that streak. It dates back to February 26, 2-0-0-0! Spanning 20 seasons.

Duke's last noncon home loss was to, you guessed it, St. John's, which potentially adds a little bit of poetic Justice that I just don't like very much.

But back to the streak, 146 games is frankly Ted Williams level. I don't even know if it's the all-time record, but it's hard for me to envision anyone beating it in the modern era.

I am reasonably certain I will never see this streak broken in my lifetime. I can't find great data on a somewhat esoteric stat like this but CBS had an article two years ago where the second longest active streak was Wichita State at 50, and they lost their home opener this year so that streak is no longer active.

What a crazy, crazy exclamation point on general dominance.

- Chillin

[HereBeforeCoachK]

St. John's poses a real threat to Duke's current 146-game non-conference home winning streak. That's right, 146 games.

Worth taking a moment to reflect on the insanity of that streak. It dates back to February 26, 2-0-0-0! Spanning 20 seasons.

Duke's last noncon home loss was to, you guessed it, St. John's, which potentially adds a little bit of poetic Justice that I just don't like very much.

But back to the streak, 146 games is frankly Ted Williams level. I don't even know if it's the all-time record, but it's hard for me to envision anyone beating it in the modern era.

I am reasonably certain I will never see this streak broken in my lifetime. I can't find great data on a somewhat esoteric stat like this but CBS had an article two years ago where the second longest active streak was Wichita State at 50, and they lost their home opener this year so that streak is no longer active.

What a crazy, crazy exclamation point on general dominance.

- Chillin

Good thing we're not playing Binghampton....

[UrinalCake]

Would a lock-down performance on Shamorie create some DPOY buzz for Tre? I know it's a long shot, but a man can dream.

I wouldn't expect Tre to single-handedly lock him down; Ponds is going to score some points. But he can certainly make things more difficult, and hopefully slow Ponds down and make him work for those points. St. John's knows that they can generate switches fairly easily, so everybody on Duke's team is going to have a role in defending Ponds, including Bolden.

What's amazing about our OOC winning streak is that not only are we undefeated since 2000 but prior to that we had another really long streak of close to 100 games. I believe we lost three times within a two year period (St. John's, Michigan with Tractor Traylor, and Illinois) but if you extend back before that stretch then we have like 240 wins over almost 30 years against three losses. Someone can back me up with the exact numbers.

[budwom]

St. John's poses a real threat to Duke's current 146-game non-conference home winning streak. That's right, 146 games.

Worth taking a moment to reflect on the insanity of that streak. It dates back to February 26, 2-0-0-0! Spanning 20 seasons.

Duke's last noncon home loss was to, you guessed it, St. John's, which potentially adds a little bit of poetic Justice that I just don't like very much.

But back to the streak, 146 games is frankly Ted Williams level. I don't even know if it's the all-time record, but it's hard for me to envision anyone beating it in the modern era.

I am reasonably certain I will never see this streak broken in my lifetime. I can't find great data on a somewhat esoteric stat like this but CBS had an article two years ago where the second longest active streak was Wichita State at 50, and they lost their home opener this year so that streak is no longer active.

What a crazy, crazy exclamation point on general dominance.

- Chillin


It is a most impressive streak, and we are, as you say, unlikely to see anything like this again. Having said that, I think we have to concede that, by and large, this was not a murderer's row of opponents.
Some very good ones to be sure, but I wonder (I don't know the answer but suspect it's a relatively small number) how many of the opponents in the streak were top 20 teams at the time they visited Cameron?
(I also concede a team doesn't have to be top 20 to be capable of an upset).

[CDu]

It is a most impressive streak, and we are, as you say, unlikely to see anything like this again. Having said that, I think we have to concede that, by and large, this was not a murderer's row of opponents.
Some very good ones to be sure, but I wonder (I don't know the answer but suspect it's a relatively small number) how many of the opponents in the streak were top 20 teams at the time they visited Cameron?
(I also concede a team doesn't have to be top 20 to be capable of an upset).

Well, it includes games in the ACC/Big-10 schedule, so I'd imagine there are quite a few decent teams (MSU, Ohio St, Indiana, Michigan come to mind). And Georgetown was in there too. But yes, the majority of the list is going to be patsies.

[BandAlum83]

St. John's poses a real threat to Duke's current 146-game non-conference home winning streak. That's right, 146 games.

Worth taking a moment to reflect on the insanity of that streak. It dates back to February 26, 2-0-0-0! Spanning 20 seasons.

Duke's last noncon home loss was to, you guessed it, St. John's, which potentially adds a little bit of poetic Justice that I just don't like very much.

But back to the streak, 146 games is frankly Ted Williams level. I don't even know if it's the all-time record, but it's hard for me to envision anyone beating it in the modern era.

I am reasonably certain I will never see this streak broken in my lifetime. I can't find great data on a somewhat esoteric stat like this but CBS had an article two years ago where the second longest active streak was Wichita State at 50, and they lost their home opener this year so that streak is no longer active.

What a crazy, crazy exclamation point on general dominance.

- Chillin

We will see it broken on Saturday. There will be a new record streak of 147 games by late Saturday afternoon. I do hope you make it to then to see it in your lifetime!

[ChillinDuke]

It is a most impressive streak, and we are, as you say, unlikely to see anything like this again. Having said that, I think we have to concede that, by and large, this was not a murderer's row of opponents.
Some very good ones to be sure, but I wonder (I don't know the answer but suspect it's a relatively small number) how many of the opponents in the streak were top 20 teams at the time they visited Cameron?
(I also concede a team doesn't have to be top 20 to be capable of an upset).

Of course you're right, but the comparison should not be to a theoretical murderer's row but simply to other top programs. The way of the world is generally to schedule patsies in your non-con schedule. I concede that some programs are more aggressive in their non-con home schedule than we are, but it's not orders of magnitude different.

When Wichita State lost their home opener this year (by 13), it was against Louisiana Tech. Not exactly some juggernaut. Currently KenPom #139. I don't believe that was the game that broke their 50-game streak that I reference upthread. It was probably the 2017 loss to Oklahoma State, which granted is a high-major program.

I know you (and most) know this, but the point is that good teams drop games. And good programs have down years. Kansas (in the notoriously scary Allen Fieldhouse) lost to Arizona State last year. That was the only home game against a power team that they played last year.

So, my conclusion is that, generally speaking, everyone has the same opportunity we do to "streak" their non-con home games. But to my knowledge no one has come even close to 146 games across 20 seasons. It's an astronomical record and doesn't really need any caveats.

- Chillin

[MarkD83]

Without looking up the schedules....every other year duke has played the “big” challenge. So there are wins against Indiana. MSU etc in the streak

[TeacherTom]

I'm going fishing tomorrow in order to facilitate sanity retention so that I may continue teaching middle school. I'm taping the game. My wish is for all the shooters to be on target and, as a result, regain or retain confidence.

[budwom]

Of course you're right, but the comparison should not be to a theoretical murderer's row but simply to other top programs. The way of the world is generally to schedule patsies in your non-con schedule. I concede that some programs are more aggressive in their non-con home schedule than we are, but it's not orders of magnitude different.

When Wichita State lost their home opener this year (by 13), it was against Louisiana Tech. Not exactly some juggernaut. Currently KenPom #139. I don't believe that was the game that broke their 50-game streak that I reference upthread. It was probably the 2017 loss to Oklahoma State, which granted is a high-major program.

I know you (and most) know this, but the point is that good teams drop games. And good programs have down years. Kansas (in the notoriously scary Allen Fieldhouse) lost to Arizona State last year. That was the only home game against a power team that they played last year.

So, my conclusion is that, generally speaking, everyone has the same opportunity we do to "streak" their non-con home games. But to my knowledge no one has come even close to 146 games across 20 seasons. It's an astronomical record and doesn't really need any caveats.

- Chillin

I pretty much agree...(I looked things up, this year's eight OOC games in Cameron has opponents averaging #168 in KenPom. I think the only reason I feel a bit iffy about the streak is that I wish we had an annual or biannual game with a very tough opponent other than in the Big What/ACC Challenge, like a home and home with a perennial top 10 or 20 team...K seems to prefer playing such games in high profile places such as MSG, Chicago instead.
Still a very impressive streak, just wish we salted it a bit more with tougher opponents. A quibble on my part.

[Indoor66]

If it is not impressive, why is the next streak at about 50 something? It must be tough to do.

[CDu]

If it is not impressive, why is the next streak at about 50 something? It must be tough to do.

Yep. It is a testament to how consistently great the program is as much as it is a testament about the quality of the opponents. Because we've certainly played enough top-50ish opponents in Cameron over the past 19 years (probably close to 20 or 25 of them) that even a single a loss in that span should not be surprising, and in fact expected. Very few teams play a murderer's row of non-con opponents at home. Facing one or two decent non-con opponents at home annually is probably the norm, with the rest being patsies, road games as part of home-and-homes, and neutral-site/tourney games. Even if we've only played 20 games over 19 years against top-50ish competition, that's a remarkable stretch of excellence in winning all 20. Let alone not being ever nipped in a substantial upset either during that span.

[Kedsy]

It is a most impressive streak, and we are, as you say, unlikely to see anything like this again. Having said that, I think we have to concede that, by and large, this was not a murderer's row of opponents.
Some very good ones to be sure, but I wonder (I don't know the answer but suspect it's a relatively small number) how many of the opponents in the streak were top 20 teams at the time they visited Cameron?
(I also concede a team doesn't have to be top 20 to be capable of an upset).

By my count, during the streak we played home games against 24 "Big Six" teams. Nine (9) opponents were ranked (top 25) at the time they played in Cameron.

[BandAlum83]

I hate to throw water on a parade and don't get me wrong, the streak is awesome, but is the streak really a thing?

Sure, the media mentions it and it will get talked about during tomorrow's game, but is it something that actual records are kept on?

That being said, here is a cool article about it from 4 years ago:

‘I hope it goes on forever.’ (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2014-12-17/looking-back-only-non-acc-team-win-cameron-2000)

[uh_no]

I hate to throw water on a parade and don't get me wrong, the streak is awesome, but is the streak really a thing?

Sure, the media mentions it and it will get talked about during tomorrow's game, but is it something that actual records are kept on?

That being said, here is a cool article about it from 4 years ago:

‘I hope it goes on forever.’ (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2014-12-17/looking-back-only-non-acc-team-win-cameron-2000)

what do you mean by actual records? The occurrence and outcome of games are generally well documented (unless you're UNC and don't know where your football game against duke is supposed to be played...)...so I don't doubt their validity.

[cato]

I hate to throw water on a parade and don't get me wrong, the streak is awesome, but is the streak really a thing?

Sure, the media mentions it and it will get talked about during tomorrow's game, but is it something that actual records are kept on?

That being said, here is a cool article about it from 4 years ago:

‘I hope it goes on forever.’ (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2014-12-17/looking-back-only-non-acc-team-win-cameron-2000)

Having been in Cameron the time the last streak was broken, it felt like a real thing at the time.

[budwom]

If it is not impressive, why is the next streak at about 50 something? It must be tough to do.


I began my original comment with "It is a most impressive streak." And yet somehow you respond with "if it is not impressive..." Could I have made it somehow clearer, and if so, how?
(Nor do I see anyone else saying "it is not impressive." )

[budwom]

By my count, during the streak we played home games against 24 "Big Six" teams. Nine (9) opponents were ranked (top 25) at the time they played in Cameron.

Good info...about one top 25 opponent every other year...

[Rich]

I began my original comment with "It is a most impressive streak." And yet somehow you respond with "if it is not impressive..." Could I have made it somehow clearer, and if so, how?
(Nor do I see anyone else saying "it is not impressive." )

It's impressive, but it's not Zion impressive. I mean, there are levels of impressiveness.

[budwom]

It's impressive, but it's not Zion impressive. I mean, there are levels of impressiveness.

Which was, of course, my original point. Impressive, but not earthshakingly so.

[Monmouth77]

Yep. It is a testament to how consistently great the program is as much as it is a testament about the quality of the opponents. Because we've certainly played enough top-50ish opponents in Cameron over the past 19 years (probably close to 20 or 25 of them) that even a single a loss in that span should not be surprising, and in fact expected. Very few teams play a murderer's row of non-con opponents at home. Facing one or two decent non-con opponents at home annually is probably the norm, with the rest being patsies, road games as part of home-and-homes, and neutral-site/tourney games. Even if we've only played 20 games over 19 years against top-50ish competition, that's a remarkable stretch of excellence in winning all 20. Let alone not being ever nipped in a substantial upset either during that span.

In fact, I think the closest we have come to losing at home to a non-conference opponent in 19 years was in the fall of 2013 against Vermont (the Parker-Hood team that was a bit defensively challenged). We won by a point despite conceding 90 points.

Because Duke has amassed most of these wins (save some occasional one-off games v. Georgetown, St. John's etc., during the period of ACC play) in the fall, the streak is built in large-part upon the early preparedness of Coach K's teams. We don't lose much in November and December regardless of forum.

[Kedsy]

Which was, of course, my original point. Impressive, but not earthshakingly so.

If you want to understand how impressive it is, have someone calculate the probability of winning 146 games in a row against the exact competition Duke played.

That someone won't be me, but I can tell you that if we had a 90% to win each individual game, the probability of winning 146 in a row would be approximately 0.00002%. I understand that the probability to win some of those games was closer to 99%, but throw in the fact that we played nine ranked teams (including three top 10 teams), plus another 16 teams from power conferences (plus several games against good non-power competition like Temple in the Chaney days), and the probability would probably be so low as to be approaching zero.

Someone can check my math, but it sounds pretty darn impressive to me.

[Troublemaker]

Statistical flukiness (or clutchness, depending on how you look at it) probably plays a part, too.

Too lazy to look it up, but let's say we were 10-0 during this streak in games decided by 5 points or less. Usually you wold expect to see a 6-4 or 7-3 record, but we (obviously) had to be perfect to maintain the streak.

[Ggallagher]

If you want to understand how impressive it is, have someone calculate the probability of winning 146 games in a row against the exact competition Duke played.

That someone won't be me, but I can tell you that if we had a 90% to win each individual game, the probability of winning 146 in a row would be approximately 0.00002%. I understand that the probability to win some of those games was closer to 99%, but throw in the fact that we played nine ranked teams (including three top 10 teams), plus another 16 teams from power conferences (plus several games against good non-power competition like Temple in the Chaney days), and the probability would probably be so low as to be approaching zero.

Someone can check my math, but it sounds pretty darn impressive to me.

Those results also included beating Steph Curry and Davidson twice. Not that I'd suggest we'd get the same results with today's Steph as an opponent rather than the 2007/2009 versions.

[CDu]

If you want to understand how impressive it is, have someone calculate the probability of winning 146 games in a row against the exact competition Duke played.

That someone won't be me, but I can tell you that if we had a 90% to win each individual game, the probability of winning 146 in a row would be approximately 0.00002%. I understand that the probability to win some of those games was closer to 99%, but throw in the fact that we played nine ranked teams (including three top 10 teams), plus another 16 teams from power conferences (plus several games against good non-power competition like Temple in the Chaney days), and the probability would probably be so low as to be approaching zero.

Someone can check my math, but it sounds pretty darn impressive to me.

Here is a simple-ish way to think about it. Say we played 10 games with a 90% win probability, 8 games with a 75% win probability, 4 teams with a 65% win probability, and 124 games with a 99% win probability. The probability of going undefeated would be 0.17%.

So, yeah, it's a really impressive streak.

[BandAlum83]

what do you mean by actual records? The occurrence and outcome of games are generally well documented (unless you're UNC and don't know where your football game against duke is supposed to be played...)...so I don't doubt their validity.

As in...

The record for most points scored in a season is...
The record for consecutive wins is...
The longest home winning streak is...
The most points scored in a game (team and individual) is...

The longest home winning streak against non-conference opponents is?
The longest winning streak for games played on Tuesday is?
The longest winning streak for teams whose mascot is an animal against teams with a human being for a mascot is?

You get my meaning.

[Kedsy]

Here is a simple-ish way to think about it. Say we played 10 games with a 90% win probability, 8 games with a 75% win probability, 4 teams with a 65% win probability, and 124 games with a 99% win probability. The probability of going undefeated would be 0.17%.

So, yeah, it's a really impressive streak.

Yeah, but it's much more impressive than that. For example, #1 seeds have won 99% of their tournament games against #16 seeds, but the "calculated" win probability on average is around 96%. #2 seeds calculated win probability over #15 seeds is around 91%. #3 over #14 is around 81%. There's no way we played 124 games with a 99% chance of winning. And our chance of beating top 10 teams was probably a lot closer to 50% than 65%, chance of beating top 25 teams closer to 60% than 75%, etc.

I modified your exercise:

Assume we had a 99% chance to win 50 of the games;
Assume we had a 90% chance to win 50 of the games;
Assume we had a 70% chance to win 37 of the games;
Assume we had a 60% chance to win 6 of the games;
Assume we had a 50% chance to win 3 of the games.

By my calculations, our chance of winning all 146 of the games (per the above probabilities) was 0.0000000035%.

And even if I'm too far off in the other direction, the chances (somewhere between your 0.17% (aka .0017) and my 0.0000000035% (aka 0.000000000035%)) would still have been fairly close to zero.

Either way, seems earthshakingly impressive to me.

[Rich]

This whole home winning streak thread seems like a major jinx-fest for tomorrow. I say we take it back up after tomorrow’s game.

[thedukelamere]

This whole home winning streak thread seems like a major jinx-fest for tomorrow. I say we take it back up after tomorrow’s game.

Agreed, and can someone please instruct the Crazies not to bring in a speed limit sign with the number 146 on it?

[fathippo]

I have watched games in Cameron for 40 years and the 2000 St Johns game is one that stands out because it has been so rare for Duke to lose a non-conference home game. I can still see Bootsy Thornton hitting the game winner. I am not predicting an upset, and it probably means nothing but it just feels like there are some similarities between that game and this one: Duke ranked #2, St Johns unranked, both games in the middle of conference play (February), St. John's with a dangerous versatile guard, Duke riding a long non-conference winning streak... Zion and RJ may not have been alive but Nate James and Carrawell should remember the 2000 game.

Some previous posters showed it with some rough stats, but I think a lot of people don’t appreciate how absurd it is that a Duke team has won 146 straight non-conference home games (272 of 275 since 1983). I do not understand why people must add a qualifier that a lot of these teams were “weaker” competition. There were lots of quality teams and all wanted to be remembered for beating Duke in Cameron and breaking the streak. And, as others have noted, the streak also includes power conference teams and ranked teams. To me, it is a testament to the coaching staff and how they have consistently had their team prepared for every game regardless of the opponent - not always easy with college kids.

[sagegrouse]

I have watched games in Cameron for 40 years and the 2000 St Johns game is one that stands out because it has been so rare for Duke to lose a non-conference home game. I can still see Bootsy Thornton hitting the game winner. I am not predicting an upset, and it probably means nothing but it just feels like there are some similarities between that game and this one: Duke ranked #2, St Johns unranked, both games in the middle of conference play (February), St. John's with a dangerous versatile guard, Duke riding a long non-conference winning streak... Zion and RJ may not have been alive but Nate James and Carrawell should remember the 2000 game.

Also, there is K's obiter dicta that home teams often have problems with noon tip-offs, like we did against Georgia Tech. Surely Coach is taking steps to make sure we are wide awake tomorrow.

[UrinalCake]

Having been in Cameron the time the last streak was broken, it felt like a real thing at the time.

I was a student during the aforementioned three losses in two years, so the streak has never felt like as big of a deal to me. But it’s still a fun footnote. Out of those 146 games, how many times did we just have an off night when shots weren’t falling, or a game where multiple players were injured or had the flu, or our opponent just shot lights out? The odds of doing anything 146 times in a row, even putting my shoes on the correct feet, are usually less than 100%.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I was a student during the aforementioned three losses in two years, so the streak has never felt like as big of a deal to me. But it’s still a fun footnote. Out of those 146 games, how many times did we just have an off night when shots weren’t falling, or a game where multiple players were injured or had the flu, or our opponent just shot lights out? The odds of doing anything 146 times in a row, even putting my shoes on the correct feet, are usually less than 100%.

In Chapel Hill, they can give athletes A's 146 times in a row.....

[jimsumner]

I was a student during the aforementioned three losses in two years, so the streak has never felt like as big of a deal to me. But it’s still a fun footnote. Out of those 146 games, how many times did we just have an off night when shots weren’t falling, or a game where multiple players were injured or had the flu, or our opponent just shot lights out? The odds of doing anything 146 times in a row, even putting my shoes on the correct feet, are usually less than 100%.

I was a student when Duke lost at home to East Tennessee State.

[Stray Gator]

I was a student when Duke lost at home to East Tennessee State.

So was I. December 14, 1968. As I recall, they had a fireplug of a guard who sort of resembled Wojo, I believe it was Harley Swift, who "Bootsied" us before getting "Bootsied" was a thing.

[Kedsy]

I was a student when Duke lost at home to East Tennessee State.

I was a student when Duke lost at home to Princeton, Davidson, and Appalachian State, all in the same month. I don't take anything for granted.

[Dukehky]

Everything dies, baby that's a fact, maybe everything that dies, someday comes back, so put your make up on, fix your hair up pretty, and meet me at noon in Cameron City.

[duketaylor]

I was a student when Duke lost at home to Princeton, Davidson, and Appalachian State, all in the same month. I don't take anything for granted.
So, we were in school at the same time. I witnessed, likely, all 3. My sophomore year. Brutal. Back in the days of BOG behind the bench (opposing). That was Vince Taylor's senior season I believe. Some pretty pitiful memories from that team/year as I look back. Going against unc and Va. and GT and Md. was tough. State was coming on and Klemson was pretty good.

[Kedsy]

So, we were in school at the same time. I witnessed, likely, all 3. My sophomore year. Brutal. Back in the days of BOG behind the bench (opposing). That was Vince Taylor's senior season I believe. Some pretty pitiful memories from that team/year as I look back. Going against unc and Va. and GT and Md. was tough. State was coming on and Klemson was pretty good.

I was a senior (as well as Vince T). My group sat at the foul line opposite the opposing bench, so directly across the court from you.

The Davidson game was during winter break, so I missed that, but I attended the other two. And, yes, it was brutal. But remembering those days makes the last 35 years all the sweeter.

[Neals384]

Having been in Cameron the time the last streak was broken, it felt like a real thing at the time.

Please stay home tomorrow, cato ;)

[duke74]

As a prof and an administrator at St. John’s, I am praying that we do what we need to do and win the game. It will be good to be able to walk on campus without abuse on Monday. I am tired of the Bootsie references I have been receiving the last week or so.

Go Devils!

[budwom]

A tip of the sports cliche' hat to Chris Mullin, for going to the number one cliche of them all: "It's a respect factor, not a fear factor." Even my wife has this one memorized.

SKeeter Swift looked like he was 35 years old (but he wasn't)...ran circles around our poor Blue Devils.

If we're going to cite horrific losses, may I offer up our NIT loss my freshman year, flew up standby to NYC, saw our (roughly #10 i believe) Devils crushed by Elnardo Webster and St. Peters, 100-71 or some such dismantling. Gruesome.

[uh_no]

In case anyone wonders, the crazies birthday hats are for the doll that the crazies bring to every game, today being decided it's birthday.


happy birthday "oh baby" doll

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Y’all have Dickie V broadcasting today’s game.

[Bob Green]

Y’all have Dickie V broadcasting today’s game.

Thanks for the warning! My Mute button has been tested satisfactory.

[-jk]

DBR Chat (http://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/misc.php?do=cchatbox) is open!

If it gets a bit slow, refresh the page. If you're on a mobile device, you'll need to select "Blue" at the bottom.

As always - please follow the DBR Posting Guidelines.

Let's Go Duke!

-jk

[budwom]

Thanks for the warning! My Mute button has been tested satisfactory.

my system checked as well, sound is not an option for this one.

[Troublemaker]

I wouldn't expect Tre to single-handedly lock him down; Ponds is going to score some points. But he can certainly make things more difficult, and hopefully slow Ponds down and make him work for those points. St. John's knows that they can generate switches fairly easily, so everybody on Duke's team is going to have a role in defending Ponds, including Bolden.


I think that's astute analysis, Urinal. SJU's ability to shoot at all 5 positions will probably encourage Duke to switch everything 1 thru 5.

I could see a game where Duke struggles a bit to defend (relative to normal) when playing our centers, but when Coach K goes to the death lineups (Zion at the 5), Duke takes full control. Would love to see Jack regain his shooting confidence in this game. I prefer the death lineup with Jack in there instead of Alex.

[jv001]

I think that's astute analysis, Urinal. SJU's ability to shoot at all 5 positions will probably encourage Duke to switch everything 1 thru 5.

I could see a game where Duke struggles a bit to defend (relative to normal) when playing our centers, but when Coach K goes to the death lineups (Zion at the 5), Duke takes full control. Would love to see Jack regain his shooting confidence in this game. I prefer the death lineup with Jack in there instead of Alex.

I wish Alex could clone Jack's defense and Jack could clone Alex's shot. Several games ago I wouldn't have wished that for Jack. Come on big boy get that confidence back. Here's hoping you make the first 3 you take. GoDuke!

[CDu]

Damnit Dickie V! Not only do you perpetuate the myth that Bootsy scored 40 in a win over Duke, you also say it happened in Cameron! The "Bootsy" game happened in a Duke OT win over St John's in Madison Square Garden in 1999. You are paid a LOT of money; do your research!

[ChrisP]

I realize that with RJ, we have a really special player and that you sort of have to take the good with the bad. But wow, that high dribble right down the middle of the lane was super easy to pick off and started a fast break that led to an and 1 for St John's. I think Duke will win this game, but sju is not the type of team that you want to let hang around for a long time so we really need to watch live ball turnovers like that

[Dukehk]

Both teams shooting lights out!

Who said we can't hit the long ball.

This team improves so much from game to game.

[AGDukesky]

Getting outhustled big time has negated this good start offensively

[dukelifer]

Getting outhustled big time has negated this good start offensively

?? I don’t see this

[AGDukesky]

?? I don’t see this

Those two offensive rebounds were what I was talking about plus the defensive recovery for the two steals. Duke has been better the last couple of minutes.

[godins]

I didn't care for that foul from Clark, but now he's got two. All the better, he's been torching us.

[dukelifer]

Those two offensive rebounds were what I was talking about plus the defensive recovery for the two steals. Duke has been better the last couple of minutes.

St John’s is spreading Duke out and hitting shots. That will work against most teams. Duke does need to get the rebounds- I agree

[dukelifer]

I hate St Johns. They have some sort of hex over Duke.

[slower]

You can already see that this one will explode at some point. Chippy. Heron (SJU) will do something (else) to try to incite Zion - you can feel it.

[Dukehk]

We got to reconsider playing st johns. They always have a really bad record, but come time to play us they take their game up 10 levels.

[jipops]

Barrett absolutely must give up the step back move for now. It never goes well. It’s not a part if his game right now.

[Dukehk]

Zion such a great and friendly kid off the court. On the court, he is an absolute beast. Has that killer mentality.

[-jk]

Zion such a great and friendly kid off the court. On the court, he is an absolute beast. Has that killer mentality.

And Mullins is terrified he’ll get unleashed!

-jk

[ChrisP]

Zion such a great and friendly kid off the court. On the court, he is an absolute beast. Has that killer mentality.

Agreed. Can't understand why the ref was giving Z such a talking to in that one dead ball situation. The SJ dude was putting his forearm in Z's chest and unless Zion was talking some smack (which I didn't see at all) I can't see what Zion did wrong at all but he got what seemed like a similarly harsh rebuke from the ref.

On a side note, anyone have thoughts on why K seems so PO'ed? I realize he's always intense and engaged but he seems unhappy with the team thus far whenever they show him on the bench. Perhaps I'm reading too much into the fact that his jacket was off so early :)

[AGDukesky]

Barrett missing all of these wide open 3s is such a killer for our momentum

[dukelifer]

Barrett missing all of these wide open 3s is such a killer for our momentum

They are killing Duke on the offensive boards

[AGDukesky]

Zion is so awesome

[dukelifer]

Nice end to the half

[AGDukesky]

Great finish to the half by Zion willing Duke to the 10 point lead

[ChrisP]

Barrett missing all of these wide open 3s is such a killer for our momentum

He is such an inconsistent shooter - I simply don't understand it, but I think his mechanics are off. DBR had a pic up the other day of him in the middle of a jump shot and RJ had his right (non-shooting) hand, on TOP of the ball. That's not how you do it - at least not if you want to be a decent % outside shooter. I really have no faith in his shot now when he puts up a 3. I pretty much just figure it's gonna be a miss. :(

[curtis325]

Bootsy Ponds with 0 points, 5 turnovers.

Nojinx!

[SCMatt33]

The only thing I think Duke really did a poor job of in that half was put in the effort on the defensive glass. St John’s got way too many second chances on plays where Duke had more guys around the glass. I know you’re going to give up some when your big guys are outside on switches, but there were a few times someone just waltzed past Duke guys thinking they wouldn’t try for the board.

[InSpades]

Zion started so slowly... he went out w/ 2 points and Cam had like 13 at the time I think. Cam still has 13... Zion has 19. Where did that come from? Geez. Kid is so good.

RJ still need to learn shot selection. Contested 3s are not good shots for this team.

Tre doing a great job on Ponds. He's 0-5 w/ 5 turnovers.

[curtis325]

Good half for RJ, except for the bricks from 3

[AGDukesky]

I actually thought RJ only forced one shot, he just isn’t making the open ones. Jones has also missed a couple easy shots he normally makes. Bolden at times looks so stiff but seems to loosen up around the basket. Glad to see Cam start off hot- we are the best team in the country with him hitting 3s...

[slower]

This game is Duke relying on the 4 frosh, and K rotating an ineffective band-aid of role players (Bolden getting blown past repeatedly, Javin racking up fouls, AOC and
Jack still virtual head cases). Thank God for Zion, since we're getting some form of "bad Barrett" today. Hopefully, Cam will keep hitting shots. Tre is a rock. Zion is a mountain.

[Clipsfan]

Those two offensive rebounds were what I was talking about plus the defensive recovery for the two steals. Duke has been better the last couple of minutes.

I think Cam didn't block out Keita on a couple. He had a tough rebound towards the end of the half though.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

K will harp on rebounds at half time. St Johns plays physical Big East basketball. Could get chippy. Let's kill the drama early.

[jv001]

Tre will give Ponds nightmares tonight. I've never seen a Duke guard that can play on the ball defense that well. Marques switches and Tre recovers and gets back on Ponds so quickly. Great first half with the exception of a few bad passes and bad defensive rebounding. I'm sure those 2 things will be addressed at halftime by Coach K. GoDuke!

[SavDukeGrad]

Tre is a rock. Zion is a mountain.

I love this!!! What a great analogy!

[brlftz]

When they set a screen for Ponds, Tre and the guy guarding the screener both go with Ponds. I'll be interested to see if SJU makes any adjustments based on that.

[slower]

Bolden. WHY would he try a 3-pointer?

[AGDukesky]

Like the start to the second half- now don’t let down because St Johns never quits

[robed deity]

First 4+ mins of second half has been A+ lights out version of Duke.

[AGDukesky]

Also looking at the box score RJ has had a really solid game other than 3-point and FT shooting- everything else has been great

[Steven43]

Very good pass from Cam to Delaurier for a nice basket.

[slower]

Too much time left. I worry about one of our guys getting hurt by a hard foul.

[AGDukesky]

Hmmm the rest of this game might not be watchable

[AGDukesky]

Hmmm the rest of this game might not be watchable

Spoke too soon or I would have missed that play from Zion...

[robed deity]

Spoke too soon or I would have missed that play from Zion...

As long as he is in the game, it's must see.

[dukelifer]

Very good pass from Cam to Delaurier for a nice basket.

Like to see this team pass more. It will really help to open up players for good shots.

[slower]

As long as he is in the game, it's must see.

But without him, it's an eyesore.

[AGDukesky]

Duke has like 8 stupid TOs in the last 7 minutes