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View Full Version : MBB: Duke 83, Notre Dame 61 Post-Game Thread



JBDuke
01-28-2019, 08:52 PM
Put your post-game thoughts here.

CDu
01-28-2019, 08:55 PM
Nice, comfy win. 3pt shooting was amazing on this night. Defense did it’s job. Nice to see Jones getting in rhythm again. Zion is amazing. That is all from me. On to the weekend!

UrinalCake
01-28-2019, 08:56 PM
Pretty hard to find much to complain about in this one. The team shot well (but didn't take too many threes), defended well, executed the game plan, and controlled the game from start to finish. Great way to handle business on the road. Zion is on another level. Barrett was quiet-ish in this one which actually made for a more efficient performance.

The rotation seems to be shaking out, with Bolden clearly ahead of Javin. Alex tries to make too many flashy/difficult plays but is still improving and pushing for more playing time. Reddish's shooting percentages are still poor but he just looks more comfortable to me, I feel confident that he'll break out soon and his defense is always excellent.

I also like that the scoring was more balanced in this one. Zion-26, Barrett-17, Reddish-13, Jones-9, Bolden-8, O'Connell-7. It wasn't just a two-man show like we've had in some recent games.

OZZIE4DUKE
01-28-2019, 08:56 PM
The average is the average because it is the average! Tonight we got closer to our norm!

CameronDuke
01-28-2019, 09:01 PM
18-2, 7-1.

4-0 on the road in the ACC this year and winners of 4 straight.

10-19 from 3 today with 8 steals and 6 blocks.

22 point road wins are legit. Nothing to complain about. If Cam and AOC start hitting 3s like that, look out.

This is the best start in the ACC (7-1) for Duke in the 18 ACC game schedule era and Duke's best start in the ACC since 2010-2011 when Duke started 12-1 and finished 13-3 in the ACC.

Back home to Cameron Indoor Stadium next to host the Johnnies Saturday afternoon. Should be a dandy!

Let's Go Duke!

Saratoga2
01-28-2019, 09:15 PM
Zion is amazing. Efficient scoring, rebounding, blocks just great.

I aqree that Bolden has moved ahead and is definitely our best center. Good to see the big guy make the plays. Javin hasn't played as well as he can. I look for him to snap out of it and play with the energy and smarts I know he has.

Jack played good defense and is such a smart rebounder. He has avoided taking shots of late, perhaps the shooting slump is still on his mind. Still, a nice contribution from him

Reddish playing good defense and hitting a decent percentage of 3's had one of his better games. I did think he looked sloppy handling the ball. Maybe that will improve as well if he gains confidence from other parts of his game which starts going well.

RJ is still a reat finisher around the rim and showed he can hit from the mid range and the three. Sometimes I think he forces his way to the basket or takes shots too soon with no help, but that is RJ.

AOL came in the game, made a nice steal and then blew the layout. He seemed not to be with it and made a bad pass, fouled and just looked bad. Unwilling to shoot when he had opportunities and then got to sit. he came back in the game later and perhaps was told to get his head in the game and take the shot when he had it. Two corner swishes in a row. He then had a reach in foul. I think he has a lot of talent but seems to lose focus at times. I still think he can help us this year.

Furniture
01-28-2019, 09:15 PM
ND fan estátic when he got a high five from Zion.....Hilarious!!!

Furniture
01-28-2019, 09:17 PM
I thought Cam was a little more aggressive tonight and his driving to the basket was definitely better.

MrPoon
01-28-2019, 09:19 PM
ND fan estátic when he got a high five from Zion....Hilarious!!!

Saw that too, don’t think he’ll ever wash that hand again.

DoWorkDukie
01-28-2019, 09:19 PM
I REALLY liked how we distributed looks tonight. Just in terms of shot attempts, this game felt really right with Zion getting a lot of iso opportunities, as well as RJ taking some, and Tre and Marques even getting in the mix.

If Marques can continue to become a servicable back to the basket scorer, I really like the look it gives our offense. Helps open things up near the goal and even outside if Ques kicks it. (though he usually doesn't, ha)

Zion is unreal

JayZee
01-28-2019, 09:20 PM
ND fan estátic when he got a high five from Zion....Hilarious!!!

Also, once in the second half Zion went for a pump fake on a 3 pointer and jumped so high the crowd seemed to gasp.

fathippo
01-28-2019, 09:23 PM
Pretty hard to find much to complain about in this one. The team shot well (but didn't take too many threes), defended well, executed the game plan, and controlled the game from start to finish. Great way to handle business on the road. Zion is on another level. Barrett was quiet-ish in this one which actually made for a more efficient performance.

The rotation seems to be shaking out, with Bolden clearly ahead of Javin. Alex tries to make too many flashy/difficult plays but is still improving and pushing for more playing time. Reddish's shooting percentages are still poor but he just looks more comfortable to me, I feel confident that he'll break out soon and his defense is always excellent.

I also like that the scoring was more balanced in this one. Zion-26, Barrett-17, Reddish-13, Jones-9, Bolden-8, O'Connell-7. It wasn't just a two-man show like we've had in some recent games.

I agree with everything, but I feel like AOC poor passes/TO's are a result playing too fast; everything looks rushed. If he slows down and makes the simple play, he will fine. I think he is close to being a significant contributor for the team. At least that's my take.

CameronDuke
01-28-2019, 09:28 PM
Tre played 36 minutes, RJ and Cam 34, and Zion 33. Was good to see them all get some small breaks from the heavy minutes tonight. Should be a physical game vs St. John's Saturday then Boston College (both at home) but then the meat of the schedule starts - at Virginia, at Louisville, vs NCSU, vs UNC, at Cuse, at Virginia Tech in 17 days in February. Talk about a gauntlet.

MrPoon
01-28-2019, 09:33 PM
Lots of great plays in this one but it really comes down to this... poor ND. I mean UVa and Duke a couple days apart?! The national champ may not have as hard of a three day swing. With Mooney missing everything (tired legs after UVa?) ND had no chance.

Nice to see the three ball working, seemed like taking cleaner looks and finding higher quality threes was part of the plan here. I liked the drive and layup play by Cam. Would still love to see his % get higher. Without him everyone on the team shot over 50%.

The seasons a journey and K isn’t done with this group. To me one of the key step of this team is the increased efficiency of RJ and Bolden’s improvements every game. Love to see him using his size and playing a the perfect tempo and roll. He really is fitting nicely when we need to go big. Fun game tonight... on to the next one. Get rest for StJs because they will come hard and then the second half of Feb. is brutal!

HereBeforeCoachK
01-28-2019, 09:35 PM
Should be a physical game vs St. John's Saturday then Boston College (both at home) but then the meat of the schedule starts - at Virginia, at Louisville, vs NCSU, vs UNC, at Cuse, at Virginia Tech in 17 days in February. Talk about a gauntlet.

Yeah, we were kind of relieved when we saw the four weeks after Tre's injury.....but starting next week, time to pay the piper on that.....

rsvman
01-28-2019, 09:38 PM
This team plays hard on defense almost all the time. That will stand us in good stead over time and pay dividends in tough games down the road.
Just a really great team performance and any conference road win is a keeper.

uh_no
01-28-2019, 09:39 PM
the defense ended up only being average on the night (93) but that's a meaningless number. We were off the gas at halftime, and I don't really care.

Good minutes all around. Could have done maybe a bit better on the O boards at time, and RJ was a bit sloppy from time to time...but w/e. I'll take that 40 minutes from every game.

Duke79UNLV77
01-28-2019, 09:47 PM
Would Zion and any 4 of us be a top 25 team??

I loved when the point guard tried to juke him, couldn’t, threw up a shot anyway, and got it swatted disdainfully. Amazing. But, Zion has about 3-5 rewind and rewatch plays every game.

Bluedog
01-28-2019, 09:49 PM
There a reason ND fans were ragging on AOC every time he touched the ball? There seemed to be a chorus of boos but I have no idea why. I think they just called him out as the guy for the "every time he touches the ball" be obnoxious for the game.

InSpades
01-28-2019, 09:50 PM
There are really no words for Zion. Some of those plays were just super-human. If there's a better college basketball player then I hope he ends up on our side. The post moves were quick, decisive and expertly finished. He had a beautiful assist to Jav. Like 3 ridiculous blocks. Gets every rebound that's anywhere near him. Hit a 3 and another jumper. He's just unreal. A joy to watch play basketball. 26 points on 12 shots. Just give him the PotY awards now.

weezie
01-28-2019, 09:52 PM
Would Zion and any 4 of us be a top 25 team??

Very likely. I've always seen myself as a power forward. But I'm thinking the high fives from Z might knock me into next week.
Ouch!

uh_no
01-28-2019, 09:53 PM
Would Zion and any 4 of us be a top 25 team??

I loved when the point guard tried to juke him, couldn’t, threw up a shot anyway, and got it swatted disdainfully. Amazing. But, Zion has about 3-5 rewind and rewatch plays every game.

yes.

So Our "worst" linup would be

buckmire
besser
Jrob
vrank
+
Zion

vrank is serviceable opposite zion. Jrob can hit 3's...the guard play would definitely be rough, but the presence of Zion would take a lot of pressure off. They wouldn't play great defense, but they would outscore enough teams to be in the top 25, imo.

du_bb1
01-28-2019, 09:56 PM
curious--any other conference have a Coach playing against two former assistants ???

Pghdukie
01-28-2019, 09:56 PM
Can you just imagine the recruits that would pledge to Duke if Zion said he was staying 1 more year ! Ouch !!

uh_no
01-28-2019, 09:57 PM
curious--any other conference have a Coach playing against two former assistants ???

does any other coach have 2 former assistants in D1?

-jk
01-28-2019, 10:01 PM
There are really no words for Zion. Some of those plays were just super-human. If there's a better college basketball player then I hope he ends up on our side. The post moves were quick, decisive and expertly finished. He had a beautiful assist to Jav. Like 3 ridiculous blocks. Gets every rebound that's anywhere near him. Hit a 3 and another jumper. He's just unreal. A joy to watch play basketball. 26 points on 12 shots. Just give him the PotY awards now.

He's awesome, but he'll get even better.

I want him to gamble just a little less on D; he gets way out of position when he comes up empty (albeit gets a really fun run out when he doesn't). I want him to get a slightly better handle on his drives, even though he's amazing at recovering the ball when he loses it inside. And I want him to get a second move to complement the usual spin-to-the-left (teams are starting to expect and plan for it), a move that starts from the same spot to keep them guessing and off balance - even if it's just spotting the open guy.

It'll happen so long as he doesn't get complacent, and he doesn't seem the complacent type. Give him half JJ's work ethic and he'll be a perpetual all-star. Some NBA team is gonna sell a bunch of tickets and jerseys...

-jk

Billy Dat
01-28-2019, 10:02 PM
but then the meat of the schedule starts - at Virginia, at Louisville, vs NCSU, vs UNC, at Cuse, at Virginia Tech in 17 days in February. Talk about a gauntlet.

That is some gauntlet...I hadn't really looked ahead to that, but this is just the kind of team you want to take on that challenge. It certainly won't be easy.


There are really no words for Zion. Some of those plays were just super-human. If there's a better college basketball player then I hope he ends up on our side. The post moves were quick, decisive and expertly finished. He had a beautiful assist to Jav. Like 3 ridiculous blocks. Gets every rebound that's anywhere near him. Hit a 3 and another jumper. He's just unreal. A joy to watch play basketball. 26 points on 12 shots. Just give him the PotY awards now.

That one sequence where he defended the guard in space on the perimeter (can't remember who) and then rose to block and outside perimeter shot was insane. That is the kind of play no one but he (and maybe a handful of others, ever) ever makes.

gocanes0506
01-28-2019, 10:04 PM
If Cam could become a 20 a night threat, this team could be really nasty. Cam looked really good when aggressive.

Really surprised that Zion didn’t receive a flagrant foul for the contact to the face. I know it was incidental.

I also found it hilarious about how excited the kid got from a Zion high five. He isn’t washing that hand for a while.

CameronDuke
01-28-2019, 10:07 PM
does any other coach have 2 former assistants in D1?

Shaka Smart (head coach at Texas) had Will Wade, Mike Jones, and Mike Rhoades as assistants at VCU on the 2010-2011 VCU squad that made the final four. Wade now is the head coach at LSU, Jones at Radford (won at Notre Dame this year), and Rhoades at VCU.

dukelifer
01-28-2019, 10:15 PM
Excellent win. Team played hard and took care of business on the road. Zion continues to amaze- just so good with the scoop. Tre played well- and shot the ball comfortably. I thought Bolden had some good moments is the first half. Cam is still not where he needs to be and Jack is not looking to shoot at all. If one can regain some consistency - Duke will be hard to stop. A little break before St. John’s.

CameronDuke
01-28-2019, 10:24 PM
does any other coach have 2 former assistants in D1?

Smart also had Jeremy Ballard as an assistant at VCU as well as Mike Morrell. Ballard is currently the head coach at Florida International while Morrell is currently the head coach at UNC Asheville.

CDu
01-28-2019, 10:25 PM
does any other coach have 2 former assistants in D1?

Roy Williams, John Calipari, and Herb Sendek. Probably a few others.

MrPoon
01-28-2019, 10:27 PM
Bleacher Report had an article combing a bunch of twitter posts from knowledgeable people. It’s very funny the praise even the experts gush out. I’d link but it was on Apple News and I have no idea how.

Moving on from the game a little. I have yet to see one second of Tenn this year. ESPN tells me they are very good...Seth Greenberg especially. Kenpom says they sixth. My quick look says they have played a total of two ranked teams and are 1-1. True one was a win against #1 Gonzaga but put records aside and watch Duke play with its full roster and tell me this isn’t the best team in the country. I want to watch the game with the 52 Ap voters (48 for Tenn and 4 for UVa-explain that one to me) who picked against Duke this week. I want to watch them while they watch Duke. I want them to reach down and select Tenn or any other team after watching Zion smother NDs PG in a way Gary Payton would be impressed with and then block his shot...Then vote for Tenn, look me in the eye and say “this team is second best”.

uh_no
01-28-2019, 10:30 PM
85 unadjusted. 80 adjusted.

The defense was spectacular in the first half. Even better since much of their "run" to cut it to 9 came with tre off the court.

CameronDuke
01-28-2019, 10:35 PM
Roy Williams, John Calipari, and Herb Sendek. Probably a few others.

I forgot one - Anthony Grant (currently the head coach at Dayton) had John Brannen, Tony Pujol, and Allen Edwards on his staff at VCU in 06-07 (that VCU team beat Duke in 07 in the first round in Buffalo), 07-08, and 08-09. Brannen currently is the head coach at Northern Kentucky, Pujol at North Alabama, and Edwards at Wyoming.

MrPoon
01-28-2019, 11:02 PM
Wait, what!??
Did anyone notice going into, I think it was halftime, ESPN showed a highlight of the bowl flipping performer?
According to the ND fan site, the weather stopped her from arriving. https://www.onefootdown.com/2019/1/28/18201473/quick-recap-red-panda-notre-dame-fighting-irish-duke-blue-devils-zion-williamson-john-mooney-barrett
Why would they show a recorded clip?

mapei
01-28-2019, 11:03 PM
Red Panda. She's incredible.

InSpades
01-28-2019, 11:08 PM
Wait, what!??
Did anyone notice going into, I think it was halftime, ESPN showed a highlight of the bowl flipping performer?
According to the ND fan site, the weather stopped her from arriving. https://www.onefootdown.com/2019/1/28/18201473/quick-recap-red-panda-notre-dame-fighting-irish-duke-blue-devils-zion-williamson-john-mooney-barrett
Why would they show a recorded clip?

Bilas made a point of talking about her and saying that she wasn't able to make it... I don't think they were trying to pull a fast one on anyone. I think he said he was going to do his 94 feet segment w/ her (though that may have been a joke).

Utley
01-28-2019, 11:39 PM
No matter how much you watch Zion - you just can’t be ready for what you see next.

His play in the first ten minutes of the second half was superhuman. Only thing that comes close that I have seen with Jordan’s first few years in the NBA.

I am ready for him to go outside and blow the arctic air mass back to the pole.

Great to see Cam’s 10 point run - more hope that he gets it going.

Love seeing Marques at this level but it scares me that he’s not back next year either.

Just trying to savor every second of this ride.

DukieInBrasil
01-28-2019, 11:56 PM
No matter how much you watch Zion - you just can’t be ready for what you see next.

His play in the first ten minutes of the second half was superhuman. Only thing that comes close that I have seen with Jordan’s first few years in the NBA.

I am ready for him to go outside and blow the arctic air mass back to the pole.

Great to see Cam’s 10 point run - more hope that he gets it going.

Love seeing Marques at this level but it scares me that he’s not back next year either.

Just trying to savor every second of this ride.

Don't rumor monger. There's no indication that Big 'Ques is going anywhere. A) his play is not at the level of getting drafted and B) He's getting enough playing time that a transfer seems highly unlikely. C) He's a Junior.

kako
01-29-2019, 12:01 AM
5 thoughts:

1. Zion

2. Zion

3. Zion

4. Zion

5. Zion

Honorable mention: Nice to see the 3s fall, especially from AOC (Duke needs the bench scoring). If Duke always gets even just 30% from 3, I would always bet on Duke to win.

9F

devilsince1977
01-29-2019, 12:11 AM
Hey y'all

Zion is 18 1/2 years old. Can you imagine if he stayed 4 yrs?

We are so fortunate to be witnessing this show. Man, I feel lucky.

Kedsy
01-29-2019, 12:43 AM
ADVANCED STATS

Possessions: 61.9 (Duke's slowest game of the season, vs. the 303rd fastest team in the nation; the 2nd game this season where the pace has been slower than our opponent's adjusted season-long pace)

OFFENSE

oRtg: 1.34 (our adjusted oRtg was 1.37, pretty great, even considering ND's mediocre defense)
eFG%: 62.7% (2nd best eFG% of the season)
3pt%: 52.6% (regression to the mean?)
2pt%: 55.0% (good)
%threes: 32.2% (if you shoot 53%, how come we took so few threes!?!; just kidding, this is I think the sweet spot for this team)
FT rate: 27.1% (meh)
OR%: 41.9% (strong)
TO%: 14.5% (also strong)
a/to: 1.44:1
%assisted: 48.6%
fast break pts: 5 (6.0% of our points; third straight lousy performance here, the worst of them all; is this is what we should start to stressing over, now?)


DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.98 (adjusted that's 0.94; not bad but to me it felt better while watching the game)
eFG%: 40.9% (good)
3pt%: 33.3% (not bad)
2pt%: 35.7% (really good)
%threes: 36.4%
FT rate: 14.5% (2nd straight sub-15% performance in defensive FTR)
DR%: 59.1% (very, very bad)
TO%: 14.5% (not good, but ND is very strong at not turning it over, so maybe this was unavoidable)
a/to: 1:1 (14th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 39.1%
fast break pts: 7 (11.5% of their points)
block%: 9.1%; 14.3% of 2-point shots (another strong blocking game)
steal%: 12.9% (another strong stealing game)


Playing an ACC road game, strong on both sides of the ball. I'll take it.

uh_no
01-29-2019, 12:54 AM
ADVANCED STATS

Possessions: 61.9 (Duke's slowest game of the season, vs. the 303rd fastest team in the nation; the 2nd game this season where the pace has been slower than our opponent's adjusted season-long pace)

OFFENSE

oRtg: 1.34 (our adjusted oRtg was 1.37, pretty great, even considering ND's mediocre defense)
eFG%: 62.7% (2nd best eFG% of the season)
3pt%: 52.6% (regression to the mean?)
2pt%: 55.0% (good)
%threes: 32.2% (if you shoot 53%, how come we took so few threes!?!; just kidding, this is I think the sweet spot for this team)
FT rate: 27.1% (meh)
OR%: 41.9% (strong)
TO%: 14.5% (also strong)
a/to: 1.44:1
%assisted: 48.6%
fast break pts: 5 (6.0% of our points; third straight lousy performance here, the worst of them all; is this is what we should start to stressing over, now?)


DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.98 (adjusted that's 0.94; not bad but to me it felt better while watching the game)
eFG%: 40.9% (good)
3pt%: 33.3% (not bad)
2pt%: 35.7% (really good)
%threes: 36.4%
FT rate: 14.5% (2nd straight sub-15% performance in defensive FTR)
DR%: 59.1% (very, very bad)
TO%: 14.5% (not good, but ND is very strong at not turning it over, so maybe this was unavoidable)
a/to: 1:1 (14th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 39.1%
fast break pts: 7 (11.5% of their points)
block%: 9.1%; 14.3% of 2-point shots (another strong blocking game)
steal%: 12.9% (another strong stealing game)


Playing an ACC road game, strong on both sides of the ball. I'll take it.

I pointed out in the in-game, our 1H adjusted D was ~80, and only was that "bad" because of the run when Tre was off the floor. At least to me, we turned down the intensity a huge amount at halftime, completely understandably. I don't expect these guys to keep the intensity at 110 when killing teams by 20 at halftime.

The DR% was my biggest concern of an otherwise superbly played game.

fuse
01-29-2019, 06:37 AM
Intended as words of encouragement- I’d like the confident Jack White back, please.

If, as Coach K has said, this season is about role players, Marques and Alex are on a good arc in recent games. It would be great to see Javin find his flow again, also.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-29-2019, 06:43 AM
Intended as words of encouragement- I’d like the confident Jack White back, please.

If, as Coach K has said, this season is about role players, Marques and Alex are on a good arc in recent games. It would be great to see Javin find his flow again, also.

Speaking of Javin, did he foolishly move under Zion on that block/catch Zion did when he fell? I couldn't tell from the video if Javin contacted Zion or not....but that was a stupid move. And wasn't it Javin who poked Bagley's eye? Sometimes he just seems out of control.

TeacherTom
01-29-2019, 07:27 AM
Kedsy, I am in awe of your statistics! You have created a first person objective point of view!

camion
01-29-2019, 07:37 AM
ADVANCED STATS

Possessions: 61.9 (Duke's slowest game of the season, vs. the 303rd fastest team in the nation; the 2nd game this season where the pace has been slower than our opponent's adjusted season-long pace)
...

Playing an ACC road game, strong on both sides of the ball. I'll take it.

The game was slow at least in part because Duke slowed the game down for a good bit of the second half. With more than 5 minutes to go in the game we began running 15 seconds off the clock each possession before starting our offense.

DukieInBrasil
01-29-2019, 08:00 AM
Speaking of Javin, did he foolishly move under Zion on that block/catch Zion did when he fell? I couldn't tell from the video if Javin contacted Zion or not...but that was a stupid move. And wasn't it Javin who poked Bagley's eye? Sometimes he just seems out of control.

Is Javin Tom Cruise's Maverick to, well, essentially everybody else's Ice Man?
"...That's right, Ice...Man, I am dangerous..."

Indoor66
01-29-2019, 08:31 AM
The game was slow at least in part because Duke slowed the game down for a good bit of the second half. With more than 5 minutes to go in the game we began running 15 seconds off the clock each possession before starting our offense.

K was being gracious to Brey, to coin a phrase,

flyingdutchdevil
01-29-2019, 08:44 AM
Speaking of Javin, did he foolishly move under Zion on that block/catch Zion did when he fell? I couldn't tell from the video if Javin contacted Zion or not...but that was a stupid move. And wasn't it Javin who poked Bagley's eye? Sometimes he just seems out of control.

Javin isn't like Grayson, who goes after the ball with reckless abandon. He's just this athletic, 6'10" ball of energy who has no idea how to use said energy.

I find it really strange what is happening to Javin. He was really, really productive earlier in the season. I think the pace of the ACC has just made him ineffective.

Bolden, on the other hand, is playing the best basketball of his career. His defense has always been good, but now it's consistently really good. He's rebounding better. He's scoring in iso and 2nd chance points. His FT form looks great and I'd rather have him on the line than Zion.

I can't speak well enough about Bolden. He's absolutely crushed it over the last 8-9 games.

JNort
01-29-2019, 08:58 AM
Don't rumor monger. There's no indication that Big 'Ques is going anywhere. A) his play is not at the level of getting drafted and B) He's getting enough playing time that a transfer seems highly unlikely. C) He's a Junior.
O i thought he was trying to compliment Bolden by saying if he keeps it up he could get drafted.


.... Ever the optimist....

superdave
01-29-2019, 09:12 AM
ADVANCED STATS
OFFENSE
fast break pts: 5 (6.0% of our points; third straight lousy performance here, the worst of them all; is this is what we should start to stressing over, now?)

DEFENSE
DR%: 59.1% (very, very bad)

Playing an ACC road game, strong on both sides of the ball. I'll take it.

I thought ND really pounded us on the offense boards a few times and allowed the game to remain somewhat close. Those opportunities typically came when they go the ball into the paint and then 2-3 guys really went after the boards. Our defense had seemingly already broken down due to a drive or post-move.

ND also controlled the pace and took care of the ball, which reduced live ball turnovers and run outs. They are a solid disciplined team even when they lack talent, so this is not a surprise.

ACC road wins are nice.

WVDUKEFAN
01-29-2019, 09:24 AM
I thought we looked really good last night in a lot of ways. Shot selection definitely contributed to the 3 point percentage going up. RJ took a few that were ill advised, but overall, was more selective. He had some very good drives and hit some great mid-range jumpers. Cam took a lot of good shots that were ever so close to going in, but seemed out of sync (control?) when driving to the basket. Marques was on his way to a double-double had he not picked up those two quick fouls at the beginning of the second half. Zion just keeps amazing me. He's a human highlight reel. That last block in the second half was a jaw dropper. He just makes me shake my head in amazement.

Congratulations on a great win.

szstark
01-29-2019, 09:29 AM
If the broadcast of this game wasn't the perfect example of why split screen should never be used again, I don't know what is. Even my wife (who usually hides in another room while I watch) found it annoying - that in itself is proof positive.

Truth&Justise
01-29-2019, 09:32 AM
There a reason ND fans were ragging on AOC every time he touched the ball? There seemed to be a chorus of boos but I have no idea why. I think they just called him out as the guy for the "every time he touches the ball" be obnoxious for the game.

My guess is it's because one of his first plays was the break-away where he got fouled trying to dunk. It was a relatively soft foul, a late whistle, and he got stuffed by the rim, so to the crowd it probably looked like he failed going for the highlight play and then got bailed out by the official. Combine that with the fact that he's not well known outside of Duke and he's easy to spot when he's on the floor, I guess it gave ND fans something to do during the game.

He responded by hitting two quick threes. I am ok with this.

Steven43
01-29-2019, 09:32 AM
Should be a physical game vs St. John's Saturday then Boston College (both at home) but then the meat of the schedule starts - at Virginia, at Louisville, vs NCSU, vs UNC, at Cuse, at Virginia Tech in 17 days in February. Talk about a gauntlet.
Whoa, that is one heck of a daunting schedule. I wouldn’t be surprised with three losses out of that group of games. Duke must have one of the 5-10 toughest schedules in the country. A no. 1 seed is going to be really tough to pull off. That Syracuse loss looms large.

Neals384
01-29-2019, 09:37 AM
Very likely. I've always seen myself as a power forward. But I'm thinking the high fives from Z might knock me into next week.
Ouch!

I noticed on one Zion highlight, each of the guys gave Zion a chest bump...except AOC, who gave him a fist bump or high five. That's one smart guy, AOC!


Bleacher Report had an article combing a bunch of twitter posts from knowledgeable people. It’s very funny the praise even the experts gush out. I’d link but it was on Apple News and I have no idea how.

Moving on from the game a little. I have yet to see one second of Tenn this year. ESPN tells me they are very good...Seth Greenberg especially. Kenpom says they sixth. My quick look says they have played a total of two ranked teams and are 1-1. True one was a win against #1 Gonzaga but put records aside and watch Duke play with its full roster and tell me this isn’t the best team in the country. I want to watch the game with the 52 Ap voters (48 for Tenn and 4 for UVa-explain that one to me) who picked against Duke this week. I want to watch them while they watch Duke. I want them to reach down and select Tenn or any other team after watching Zion smother NDs PG in a way Gary Payton would be impressed with and then block his shot...Then vote for Tenn, look me in the eye and say “this team is second best”.

I watched part of Tenn vs. Vandy. It would have been their "Syracuse game." except that Vandy self-destructed in the final minute of regulation. And Vandy is nowhere near as good as 'Cuse.

jv001
01-29-2019, 10:01 AM
A lot of good posts on the victory over ND. I'll just add a few;1) I'm completely in awe of Zion. The kid can do everything on the court. His offense is great and his defense is as well. I've not seen many college players that have the quickness, handle, desire and passion for the game as Zion. His defense is very underrated. I like the way he covers for a teammate that's beaten off the dribble. 2)It was great to see the guys not rush their 3 point shots and it resulted in a good 10-19 night. I'm pretty sure the coaches have been preaching this lately. 3) When I look at this Duke team, I see all our guys as good defenders. Everyone seems to do their job very well and Tre sets the tone for our good man2man. 4) Marques has really come on strong and has improved his rebounding. Of course, his previous rebounding numbers were very low.. But he's showing why he was highly recruited coming out of high school. 5)I thought Javin looked better in this game as well. Small steps. Now let's beat the Johnnies. We owe them for some tough losses in the past. GoDuke!

When I said all the players play great defense, I meant the starters. I can't include Alex or Javin but can include Jack. GoDuke

Rich
01-29-2019, 10:01 AM
Wait, what!??
Did anyone notice going into, I think it was halftime, ESPN showed a highlight of the bowl flipping performer?
According to the ND fan site, the weather stopped her from arriving. https://www.onefootdown.com/2019/1/28/18201473/quick-recap-red-panda-notre-dame-fighting-irish-duke-blue-devils-zion-williamson-john-mooney-barrett
Why would they show a recorded clip?


Red Panda. She's incredible.


Bilas made a point of talking about her and saying that she wasn't able to make it... I don't think they were trying to pull a fast one on anyone. I think he said he was going to do his 94 feet segment w/ her (though that may have been a joke).

Red Panda is a legend known all through the sports world. She made headlines last year when her unicycle was stolen.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/22300960/golden-state-warriors-replacing-stolen-unicycle-red-panda-acrobat


The Golden State Warriors are trying to fix one of the most popular halftime acts in the NBA and college basketball.

On Friday, the franchise announced that it would replace the stolen unicycle of Red Panda Acrobat, the viral halftime show created by Rong Niu.

Last month, the customized, $25,000 unicycle Niu had used for nearly 30 years was stolen from a San Francisco airport, per KTVU.com. Local authorities released photos of a man who appeared to walk away with the luggage carrying Niu's 7-foot bike. Her agent, Pat Figley, offered a $2,000 reward for its return.

Warriors president Rick Welts announced Friday, however, that his team would replace the bike.

Rich
01-29-2019, 10:03 AM
ADVANCED STATS

Possessions: 61.9 (Duke's slowest game of the season, vs. the 303rd fastest team in the nation; the 2nd game this season where the pace has been slower than our opponent's adjusted season-long pace)

OFFENSE

oRtg: 1.34 (our adjusted oRtg was 1.37, pretty great, even considering ND's mediocre defense)
eFG%: 62.7% (2nd best eFG% of the season)
3pt%: 52.6% (regression to the mean?)
2pt%: 55.0% (good)
%threes: 32.2% (if you shoot 53%, how come we took so few threes!?!; just kidding, this is I think the sweet spot for this team)
FT rate: 27.1% (meh)
OR%: 41.9% (strong)
TO%: 14.5% (also strong)
a/to: 1.44:1
%assisted: 48.6%
fast break pts: 5 (6.0% of our points; third straight lousy performance here, the worst of them all; is this is what we should start to stressing over, now?)


DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.98 (adjusted that's 0.94; not bad but to me it felt better while watching the game)
eFG%: 40.9% (good)
3pt%: 33.3% (not bad)
2pt%: 35.7% (really good)
%threes: 36.4%
FT rate: 14.5% (2nd straight sub-15% performance in defensive FTR)
DR%: 59.1% (very, very bad)
TO%: 14.5% (not good, but ND is very strong at not turning it over, so maybe this was unavoidable)
a/to: 1:1 (14th straight game with our opponents having equal or more turnovers than assists)
%assisted: 39.1%
fast break pts: 7 (11.5% of their points)
block%: 9.1%; 14.3% of 2-point shots (another strong blocking game)
steal%: 12.9% (another strong stealing game)


Playing an ACC road game, strong on both sides of the ball. I'll take it.

No, now is when we stress that we're peaking too soon!

Jeffrey
01-29-2019, 10:11 AM
No, now is when we stress that we're peaking too soon!

Or, enjoy every minute with, IMO, the best all-around college PG paired with the two best players. Add the GOAT coach and another lottery pick and there's nothing left to do but smile, smile, smile!

Jeffrey
01-29-2019, 10:26 AM
Whoa, that is one heck of a daunting schedule. I wouldn’t be surprised with three losses out of that group of games. Duke must have one of the 5-10 toughest schedules in the country. A no. 1 seed is going to be really tough to pull off.That Syracuse loss looms large.

Would you like to give me some long-shot odds on Duke being a 1 seed? Given the Syracuse loss at home, why not?

sagegrouse
01-29-2019, 10:58 AM
There a reason ND fans were ragging on AOC every time he touched the ball? There seemed to be a chorus of boos but I have no idea why. I think they just called him out as the guy for the "every time he touches the ball" be obnoxious for the game.

Ya' wondering why the white-bread Notre Dame fans are pickin' on the geeky-looking guy on the floor, who looks like a physics major not a well muscled ath-a-lete? Palpable jealousy? Been going on a long time. Ask Bobby Hurley. But I do say it shows no respect for a fellow Irishman of the O'Connell clan.

CrazyNotCrazie
01-29-2019, 11:10 AM
Ya' wondering why the white-bread Notre Dame fans are pickin' on the geeky-looking guy on the floor, who looks like a physics major not a well muscled ath-a-lete? Palpable jealousy? Been going on a long time. Ask Bobby Hurley. But I do say it shows no respect for a fellow Irishman of the O'Connell clan.

I normally do not focus on such things but I did notice that at the end of the game, they showed O'Connell wiping his face on his shirt and he had some major tattoos on his stomach. I think he tries very hard to avoid the geeky-looking basketball label.

Ggallagher
01-29-2019, 11:33 AM
Among the many things I enjoyed about the ND game was Bilas's comment after we stole the ball and Zion was roaring down the court on the way to another highlight reel super dunk.

Whoever the ND player was that was chasing Zion, fouled him and prevented the shot - no small accomplishment. Then McDonough piped in and said the ND player had fouled him to prevent the layup.

I loved it when Bilas responded "I don't think that was going to be a layup". Very well said.

roywhite
01-29-2019, 12:00 PM
The team movement in man-to-man defense by Duke last night was often outstanding. It's been quite a while since I've seen better by a Duke team. The number of turnovers forced was not high, but ND struggled to get into their offense and to get good looks. Bolden deserves a shout-out for his mobility on hedges and overall movement for a big man.

Steven43
01-29-2019, 12:16 PM
Among the many things I enjoyed about the ND game was Bilas's comment after we stole the ball and Zion was roaring down the court on the way to another highlight reel super dunk.

Whoever the ND player was that was chasing Zion, fouled him and prevented the shot - no small accomplishment. Then McDonough piped in and said the ND player had fouled him to prevent the layup.

I loved it when Bilas responded "I don't think that was going to be a layup". Very well said.
Bilas has been much more pro-Duke this season. It’s quite surprising, and very welcome.

ncexnyc
01-29-2019, 12:30 PM
After the game last night I hope everyone realizes just how lucky we are as Duke fans. ND has been a major thorn in our side since they've come into the league. Mike Brey has done a really good job at making them solid players year, after year. This year things haven't gone well for them, which is evident by their record.

It's times like these that make me realize just how much Coach K means to Duke and the Duke basketball program. The continued excellence is just mind boggling.

As for the game itself, well what more can you say about Zion? If ever there was a superstar kid coming into college who was under rated it's him. The effort and intensity are just awe inspiring. RJ had me scratching my head with that first 3pt attempt of his, but that was about the only thing he did all night that had me wondering. A really solid game for him. Cam continues to play hard and his toughness on the defensive end is a pleasure to watch. Bolden had some really nice minutes an aside from one questionable foul, should of had a double/double. AOC continues to tease. That stroke from 3pt land is really, really nice, but he always gives us a, "Dude come on" moment in every game.

I'm looking forward to the St. John's game this weekend. We'll see just how good Tre really is when he goes up against Ponds.

superdave
01-29-2019, 12:32 PM
If the broadcast of this game wasn't the perfect example of why split screen should never be used again, I don't know what is. Even my wife (who usually hides in another room while I watch) found it annoying - that in itself is proof positive.

Yeah, I dont need to see anything other than a wide angle of the game. Espn gets too distracted.

brlftz
01-29-2019, 12:37 PM
Yeah, I dont need to see anything other than a wide angle of the game. Espn gets too distracted.

What, you didn't want have your screen devoted to a guy sitting in the stands for ten minutes? That was riveting and added a lot to my enjoyment of the game. Without it, I might not have known what a guy sitting in the stands looks like from behind.

Utley
01-29-2019, 12:38 PM
Among the many things I enjoyed about the ND game was Bilas's comment after we stole the ball and Zion was roaring down the court on the way to another highlight reel super dunk.

Whoever the ND player was that was chasing Zion, fouled him and prevented the shot - no small accomplishment. Then McDonough piped in and said the ND player had fouled him to prevent the layup.

I loved it when Bilas responded "I don't think that was going to be a layup". Very well said.

I hate that play got interrupted. The pass by Tre was incredible. The whole thing would have been one of the highlights of the season

Utley
01-29-2019, 12:42 PM
O i thought he was trying to compliment Bolden by saying if he keeps it up he could get drafted.


... Ever the optimist...

Thanks - that’s what I was trying to say. I have no knowledge of anything other than him playing at a really high level in January.

BandAlum83
01-29-2019, 12:49 PM
If the broadcast of this game wasn't the perfect example of why split screen should never be used again, I don't know what is. Even my wife (who usually hides in another room while I watch) found it annoying - that in itself is proof positive.

They moved the 94' with Jay Bilas to an in-game spot forcing a split screen. I guess it gives them more time to jam commercials into the telecast. Ugh.

Since I usually don't watch live, I get a feel for how far ahead to FF during the under-4 timeouts. On ESPN it's 4 minutes, on the ACC Network game last Saturday against GT it was only 2.5. That contributes to ESPN's consistent problem of games going long over the top of the hour.

BandAlum83
01-29-2019, 12:52 PM
Whoa, that is one heck of a daunting schedule. I wouldn’t be surprised with three losses out of that group of games. Duke must have one of the 5-10 toughest schedules in the country. A no. 1 seed is going to be really tough to pull off. That Syracuse loss looms large.

Here comes Mr. doom and gloom again! You really think we will go 3-3 during that stretch? Why do you always seem to see things looming? It must be hard for you to simply be in the moment and enjoy.

Jeffrey
01-29-2019, 01:23 PM
Here comes Mr. doom and gloom again! You really think we will go 3-3 during that stretch? Why do you always seem to see things looming? It must be hard for you to simply be in the moment and enjoy.

Please be nice to Steven........... I'm trying to make easy money.

Steven43
01-29-2019, 01:42 PM
Would you like to give me some long-shot odds on Duke being a 1 seed? Given the Syracuse loss at home, why not?

Not yet. I would first have to try to analyze which other schools are in contention for a No. 1 seed. I’ve got to know the competition first.

Jeffrey
01-29-2019, 01:44 PM
Not yet. I would first have to try to analyze which other schools are in contention for a No. 1 seed. I’ve got to know the competition first.

Then, why did you write.....


A no. 1 seed is going to be really tough to pull off.That Syracuse loss looms large.


"really tough to pull off" sounds like a definite long-shot, correct?

Steven43
01-29-2019, 02:03 PM
Here comes Mr. doom and gloom again! You really think we will go 3-3 during that stretch? Why do you always seem to see things looming? It must be hard for you to simply be in the moment and enjoy.

Oh boy, where to start with this? I'll start here: I really do not appreciate being misquoted. i said "I would not be surprised" if Duke were to lose 3 of the 6 games. That is NOT the same thing as saying -- as you incorrectly asserted -- that I think we will go 3-3 during that stretch. Big distinction. As to your comment of me always seeming to see things looming, I can say that I don't know any other way. I'm ALWAYS wary in life and in sports of what will come next and try to prepare for it and hopefully head it off. You think Coach K doesn't do that? You think Bill Belichick doesn't do that? They are ALWAYS trying to improve any weaknesses, however small.

Furthermore, seeing everything Duke Basketball as sunshine and lollipops is BORING and pointless. I could be just another poster saying "Wow, we were awesome last night! Gee fellas, Isn't it so wonderful to be a Duke fan? Isn't Coach K the greatest? Boy, that Zion Williamson is spectacular! Am I right? Can't wait for this sixth National Championship! We are going to give that UNCheat their comeuppance when they come to CIS in February! RJ RJ RJ! Cam sure showed those foolish doubters last night, didn't he? Who is the poor 3-point shooting team NOW Haha!!"

No, I really don't see much use in stating the obvious. Maybe that's your thing, I don't know. And obviously I enjoy all of this very much or I wouldn't be watching every game, talking about Duke Basketball with anyone who will listen, and reading and posting on DBR on a daily basis. All of that is enjoyment "in the moment" for me. So that's not your way; so be it. Why are you questioning me? I don't see what your motivation is.

Steven43
01-29-2019, 02:05 PM
Then, why did you write....



"really tough to pull off" sounds like a definite long-shot, correct?

Not to me. Really tough to pull off is not the same as being "a definite long shot". Not in my mind.

UrinalCake
01-29-2019, 02:38 PM
I hate that play got interrupted. The pass by Tre was incredible. The whole thing would have been one of the highlights of the season

I can’t believe they didn’t show a replay of that pass! It was phenomenal.

Link (https://twitter.com/dukeblogger/status/1090124200579346432)

Jeffrey
01-29-2019, 02:55 PM
I can’t believe they didn’t show a replay of that pass! It was phenomenal.

Link (https://twitter.com/dukeblogger/status/1090124200579346432)

My TV showed it half a dozen times. Reminded me of Magic.

English
01-29-2019, 03:51 PM
Oh boy, where to start with this? I'll start here: I really do not appreciate being misquoted. i said "I would not be surprised" if Duke were to lose 3 of the 6 games. That is NOT the same thing as saying -- as you incorrectly asserted -- that I think we will go 3-3 during that stretch. Big distinction. As to your comment of me always seeming to see things looming, I can say that I don't know any other way. I'm ALWAYS wary in life and in sports of what will come next and try to prepare for it and hopefully head it off. You think Coach K doesn't do that? You think Bill Belichick doesn't do that? They are ALWAYS trying to improve any weaknesses, however small.

So, for the spectators on the board, that's you, Coach K, and Bill Belichick who are preparing for what will come next and trying to improve the weaknesses on the team? Got it. Thanks for doing the tough work.


Furthermore, seeing everything Duke Basketball as sunshine and lollipops is BORING and pointless. I could be just another poster saying "Wow, we were awesome last night! Gee fellas, Isn't it so wonderful to be a Duke fan? Isn't Coach K the greatest? Boy, that Zion Williamson is spectacular! Am I right? Can't wait for this sixth National Championship! We are going to give that UNCheat their comeuppance when they come to CIS in February! RJ RJ RJ! Cam sure showed those foolish doubters last night, didn't he? Who is the poor 3-point shooting team NOW Haha!!"

No, I really don't see much use in stating the obvious.

You're definitely not stating the obvious with your lack of surprise if Duke goes 0.500 over a six-game stretch. What you're doing has much more utility and impact. On an internet message board. Way better to overreact negatively than positively on a fan site.

Steven43
01-29-2019, 04:20 PM
So, for the spectators on the board, that's you, Coach K, and Bill Belichick who are preparing for what will come next and trying to improve the weaknesses on the team? Got it. Thanks for doing the tough work.



You're definitely not stating the obvious with your lack of surprise if Duke goes 0.500 over a six-game stretch. What you're doing has much more utility and impact. On an internet message board. Way better to overreact negatively than positively on a fan site.
I did not in any way mean to imply — through my comment comparing focusing on correcting weaknesses to K and Bill — that I am actually solving those weaknesses. I was trying to say that I am inclined to bring light to those weaknesses, as perceived by me. But you very well knew that, your sarcasm aside.

As to your second comment, I think you’re just dead wrong. I don’t think it’s overreacting negatively to think Duke COULD lose three of those six games. That is not at all an unlikely scenario. What is wrong or negative about simply pointing it out? And yes, I am more inclined to post comments that are not necessarily of the positive cheerleader variety. I’m not going to apologize for that.

oldnavy
01-29-2019, 04:34 PM
Here comes Mr. doom and gloom again! You really think we will go 3-3 during that stretch? Why do you always seem to see things looming? It must be hard for you to simply be in the moment and enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncbEucjsNFU

Steven43
01-29-2019, 04:52 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncbEucjsNFU

Wow, what a cast! Great to see Donald Sutherland playing against type there. I’m going to watch this the first chance I get, with special attention given to the Moriarty character. Can’t wait!

oldnavy
01-29-2019, 04:57 PM
Wow, what a cast! Great to see Donald Sutherland playing against type there. I’m going to watch this the first chance I get, with special attention given to the Moriarty character. Can’t wait!

You've never seen this before???

You are in for a treat!!

BandAlum83
01-29-2019, 05:09 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncbEucjsNFU

You're enjoying your day, everything's going your way, when along comes DBer Downer.
Always there to tell you 'bout failing free throws, Cam's handle, or terrible 3's .
You beg him to spare you, 'DBer, please!' but you can't stop DBer Downer!"


https://youtu.be/PcGwkyzmPmA

Steven43
01-29-2019, 05:14 PM
You're enjoying your day, everything's going your way, when along comes DBer Downer.
Always there to tell you 'bout failing free throws, Cam's handle, or terrible 3's .
You beg him to spare you, 'DBer, please!' but you can't stop DBer Downer!"


https://youtu.be/PcGwkyzmPmA

Okay, you made it personal now. You crossed the line.

BandAlum83
01-29-2019, 05:46 PM
Okay, you made it personal now. You crossed the line.

Not personal. I didn't use your name, and you are by far not the only one on the board that can play the role.

sagegrouse
01-29-2019, 05:51 PM
Not personal. I didn't use your name, and you are by far not the only one on the board that can play the role.

You didn't notice the irony meter on the side -- Steve43 probably should have used an emoticon.

Papa John
01-29-2019, 05:58 PM
Wow, what a cast! Great to see Donald Sutherland playing against type there. I’m going to watch this the first chance I get, with special attention given to the Moriarty character. Can’t wait!

Wha? Never seen Kelly’s Heroes before? Movie marathon time... need to watch that, Dirty Dozen, Force 10 from Navarone, Bridge Over the River Kwai, The Big Red One and The Great Escape in succession... and for extra credit, throw in Saving Private Ryan and Inglorious Bastards...

Returning to the DD subject... perhaps you worded things poorly? Of the next six games, there are three that you would not be surprised if we were to lose, or that you believe we would have a reasonable chance to lose?

Steven43
01-29-2019, 06:11 PM
You didn't notice the irony meter on the side -- Steve43 probably should have used an emoticon.

You are correct, sir!

Steven43
01-29-2019, 06:31 PM
Wha? Never seen Kelly’s Heroes before? Movie marathon time... need to watch that, Dirty Dozen, Force 10 from Navarone, Bridge Over the River Kwai, The Big Red One and The Great Escape in succession... and for extra credit, throw in Saving Private Ryan and Inglorious Bastards...

Returning to the DD subject... perhaps you worded things poorly? Of the next six games, there are three that you would not be surprised if we were to lose, or that you believe we would have a reasonable chance to lose?

Actually, I think all six games are legitimately potential losses. So to lose 3 of the 6 would not surprise me in the least.

As far as the movies go, I have seen Inglorious Bastards (loved it), Saving Private Ryan (intense, powerfully-moving film), The Great Escape (very good film; and I always enjoy seeing my namesake, Steve McQueen), The Dirty Dozen (darn good movie; Lee Marvin is a bada**), Force 10 From Navarone (another strong cast led by a young Harrison Ford, the great Robert Shaw, and the lovely Barbara Bach), and The Big Red One (very good movie; another strong Lee Marvin performance). I haven’t seen all of Bridge On the River Kwai. Only parts of it when I was a kid.

And I absolutely cannot wait to see They Shall Not Grow Old, a movie about World War 1. I recently saw a trailer for it before both Green Book and Free Solo.

uh_no
01-29-2019, 06:37 PM
Actually, I think all six games are legitimately potential losses. So to lose 3 of the 6 would not surprise me in the least.


I haven't run the numbers, but based on KP individual game probabilities, there's probably a 30-something % chance we lose 3 or more of those 6 games.

Pghdukie
01-29-2019, 06:45 PM
I haven't run the numbers, but based on KP individual game probabilities, there's probably a 30-something % chance we lose 3 or more of those 6 games.

You must never have seen the movie "The Sandlot".

AZLA
01-29-2019, 06:49 PM
I haven't run the numbers, but based on KP individual game probabilities, there's probably a 30-something % chance we lose 3 or more of those 6 games.

Did you guys see after the game ESPN projected Duke only had a 26 percent chance of beating UVA in C-Ville (I believe that was the number), which I found surprising.

House P
01-29-2019, 07:01 PM
I haven't run the numbers, but based on KP individual game probabilities, there's probably a 30-something % chance we lose 3 or more of those 6 games.

Based on KenPom's current win probability for each game, here is how he estimates the likelihood for Duke's W/L record over that 6 game stretch.

0W-6L: 1 in 5000 chance
1W-5L: 1% chance
2W-4L: 5% chance
3W-3L: 19% chance
4W-2L: 37% chance
5W-1L: 30% chance
6W-0L: 8% chance

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-29-2019, 07:09 PM
Based on KenPom's current win probability for each game, here is how he estimates the likelihood for Duke's W/L record over that 6 game stretch.

0W-6L: 1 in 5000 chance
1W-5L: 1% chance
2W-4L: 5% chance
3W-3L: 19% chance
4W-2L: 37% chance
5W-1L: 30% chance
6W-0L: 8% chance

So... If one were to arrange these outcomes from "not surprising" to "wow, that was surprising," the least surprising would be 4-2, and most surprising being 0-6... 3-3 would be the fourth-most surprising. In other words "pretty much not surprising."

I say the hypothesis of Steven43 holds up.

Clipsfan
01-29-2019, 07:13 PM
Based on KenPom's current win probability for each game, here is how he estimates the likelihood for Duke's W/L record over that 6 game stretch.

0W-6L: 1 in 5000 chance
1W-5L: 1% chance
2W-4L: 5% chance
3W-3L: 19% chance
4W-2L: 37% chance
5W-1L: 30% chance
6W-0L: 8% chance

There's no doubt it is a tough stretch. Here's to hoping that kenpom is now under rating us given the combination of injuries recently and the worse play at the end of blowouts sometimes submitted by our bench.

uh_no
01-29-2019, 07:13 PM
Based on KenPom's current win probability for each game, here is how he estimates the likelihood for Duke's W/L record over that 6 game stretch.

0W-6L: 1 in 5000 chance
1W-5L: 1% chance
2W-4L: 5% chance
3W-3L: 19% chance
4W-2L: 37% chance
5W-1L: 30% chance
6W-0L: 8% chance

so 25+. Wasn't too far off.

Jeffrey
01-30-2019, 10:15 AM
Did you guys see after the game ESPN projected Duke only had a 26 percent chance of beating UVA in C-Ville (I believe that was the number), which I found surprising.

I'm not surprised given their style of D and our style of O. IMO, UVA is one of the four best college teams and playing on their court flips the odds.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-30-2019, 10:22 AM
I'm not surprised given their style of D and our style of O. IMO, UVA is one of the four best college teams and playing on their court flips the odds.

Right and their game tracker will have the odds all over the place as the game takes place.

DukieInBrasil
01-30-2019, 11:34 AM
I'm not surprised given their style of D and our style of O. IMO, UVA is one of the four best college teams and playing on their court flips the odds.

we beat them at Duke without our PG, who is the key for making our defense as efficient as possible as well as for making our offense as efficient as possible. Sure, playing at UVA gives them a small advantage, but putting Tre back in the lineup vs UVA gives us a larger advantage.
One thing's for sure, K'll be watching that NC St. footage to see what Duke can emulate in terms of getting UVA to turn the ball over. State wasn't able to take as much advantage off those turns as they could have, but that is an essential aspect of Duke's success this season. Also, FT shooting will probably be on all of the players' minds vs UVA, seeing as how State lost the game at the FT line.

uh_no
01-30-2019, 11:56 AM
we beat them at Duke without our PG, who is the key for making our defense as efficient as possible as well as for making our offense as efficient as possible. Sure, playing at UVA gives them a small advantage, but putting Tre back in the lineup vs UVA gives us a larger advantage.
One thing's for sure, K'll be watching that NC St. footage to see what Duke can emulate in terms of getting UVA to turn the ball over. State wasn't able to take as much advantage off those turns as they could have, but that is an essential aspect of Duke's success this season. Also, FT shooting will probably be on all of the players' minds vs UVA, seeing as how State lost the game at the FT line.

My hot take:

when tre is playing, duke's defense is phenomenal, like ~80 adjusted D. Our KP number is artificially inflated due to two factors:

- tre missing 3 games in which we played markedly worse on the defensive end
- duke lifting off the gas down the stretch, as was seen especially in the second half last night

I'm not willing to say, however, that duke's defense is intrinsically better than UVA. Except NCSU and Duke, UVA has been routinely nuking teams as well. And while obviously they don't have an adjustment for having missed the best defensive player in the country (cough cough, DPOY watchlist...) I have no doubt they let off the gas somewhat as well. Their actual ability if they kept on all the time is probably also in the low 80s.

So if you ask me, both duke and UVA are phenomenal defensively, and probably about equivalent when you adjust for the above factors. And when you DO make that adjustment, they look almost identical in KP.

Obviously KP thinks they are equivalent offensively...and I think for duke, that's where the game is won or lost. If we hit some threes, it's game over. If we don't, then it'll be tight. Either way, I think duke wins for one reason: Tre Jones.

Duke will be playing the same UVA team. UVA is playing a completely different Duke team....so even the fact that we are far better with Tre aside, just the fact that they are playing what is very much a different team whereas we're playing the same team in UVA is a huge advantage, enough so that I think it outweighs the HCA.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-30-2019, 12:16 PM
Did you guys see after the game ESPN projected Duke only had a 26 percent chance of beating UVA in C-Ville (I believe that was the number), which I found surprising.

If Duke hits above 40 percent from 3 against UVa, I will given any poster 2 to 1 pie odds we win.

curtis325
01-30-2019, 12:23 PM
If Duke hits above 40 percent from 3 against UVa, I will given any poster 2 to 1 pie odds we win.

It's a road game, so obviously 40 percent is a lock.

rocketeli
01-30-2019, 12:26 PM
got to get by our annual trap game with St John's first

HereBeforeCoachK
01-30-2019, 03:50 PM
If Duke hits above 40 percent from 3 against UVa, I will given any poster 2 to 1 pie odds we win.

If Duke hits 40% I'll give you UVa plus 10.

MrPoon
01-30-2019, 04:45 PM
If Duke hits 40% I'll give you UVa plus 10.

While Duke’s D is very good, I also suspect UVa will shoot better than 17% from three at home....
Maybe that is an offset to having Tre back and Duke still wins by 2 again!

Wahoo2000
01-30-2019, 05:27 PM
While Duke’s D is very good, I also suspect UVa will shoot better than 17% from three at home...
Maybe that is an offset to having Tre back and Duke still wins by 2 again!

Yeah - I don't actually think anything that happened in the first game means much for this one. Duke played SUCH a different defensive style (switching 1-5) that it took us completely out of our normal offense. They could try that again, but it's just going to end with Tre isolated on Diakite in the post. Maybe you guys have confidence in that matchup, but I like it a TON as a UVA fan to force Duke to stop all the switches, which would allow us to get Guy and Jerome free for decent looks coming off of those curl and pin-down screens. As crazy as it sounds (and I believe like you guys do that Jones is one of the premier defenders in the nation), his return might not be a massive boost to your defense overall, which forced us to play ISO- ball the entire first contest.

Whatever happens, I expect an awesome game and wouldn't be surprised in the least to see EITHER team walk away with the W. I think the two squads are incredibly even when playing their "A" game (at THIS point of the season anyway..... we have some room to improve, but I'd acknowledge Duke has a notch or two MORE room to improve and very well could be able to separate from us by the end of the season).

Jeffrey
01-30-2019, 05:28 PM
If Duke hits above 40 percent from 3 against UVa, I will given any poster 2 to 1 pie odds we win.

If Duke hits 40%+ of their 3's, then the odds should be a lot more than 2 to 1!

Jeffrey
01-30-2019, 05:33 PM
we beat them at Duke without our PG, who is the key for making our defense as efficient as possible as well as for making our offense as efficient as possible. Sure, playing at UVA gives them a small advantage, but putting Tre back in the lineup vs UVA gives us a larger advantage.


Even odds, want to make a gentleman's bet? Loser sings the winner's praises on the post-game thread.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-30-2019, 09:56 PM
While Duke’s D is very good, I also suspect UVa will shoot better than 17% from three at home...
Maybe that is an offset to having Tre back and Duke still wins by 2 again!

I agree, but I'll still lay ten points to any team any where in a game where Duke hits 40%.

Kedsy
01-30-2019, 10:35 PM
I agree, but I'll still lay ten points to any team any where in a game where Duke hits 40%.

So far this season, if you gave 10 points in every game, you'd be 15-5 (75%). If you gave 10 points only in games where Duke hit 40+% of its threes, you'd be 4-1 (80%). Not much difference, really.

Just like when you (and others) were saying Duke couldn't win six games in a row against tough competition without shooting at least xx% from three, your current theory is too simplistic. Offense is a complex web of interdependent strands. The various aspects of defense add even more complexity to the web. Trying to pin everything on one strand will never properly predict wins and losses.

roywhite
01-30-2019, 10:40 PM
I'm looking forward to the St. John's game this weekend. We'll see just how good Tre really is when he goes up against Ponds.

Ponds just went for 26 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists, and 6 steals in a road win over Creighton. Yikes.

uh_no
01-30-2019, 10:45 PM
So far this season, if you gave 10 points in every game, you'd be 15-5 (75%). If you gave 10 points only in games where Duke hit 40+% of its threes, you'd be 4-1 (80%). Not much difference, really.


An expected win by 10 is ~80% win probability. At least with the terribly small sample, given that duke has, in fact, won 80% of the games in which it hit 40+% from 3, it seems like 10 points is exactly the correct handicap.

Kedsy
01-31-2019, 12:07 AM
An expected win by 10 is ~80% win probability. At least with the terribly small sample, given that duke has, in fact, won 80% of the games in which it hit 40+% from 3, it seems like 10 points is exactly the correct handicap.

Perhaps, but Duke has also won 73.3% of its games (against a ten point spread) when it shot under 40% from three. How many points correspond to that win probability?

uh_no
01-31-2019, 12:37 AM
Perhaps, but Duke has also won 73.3% of its games (against a ten point spread) when it shot under 40% from three. How many points correspond to that win probability?

9 points is like 78.5%
8 76% or something
7 74%
6 70%

so we won ~74% of those games by at least a 7 point margin. So we're about 7 points better than <insert arbitrary opponent on our schedule> if we shoot < 40% from 3.

What I said was mooossttllyyy in jest, as any sort of blanket statement like that is bound to be crazy, but I found it amusing because it happened to work out correctly....but if we were to entertain it, all it says is based on the data we have, duke might be 3 points better when it shoots over 40% from 3 than under 40%.

Obviously this is discarding such ridiculous amounts of data (opponent strength, how much further above or below 40% the team shot, the actual point margin) as to be almost entirely useless in light of other data we have (like, say the actual adjusted efficiency)

Either way, i'm going to go out on a limb and say that based on this data, "everything else being equal, duke will score more points if the ball goes in more often"

ElliottHoo
01-31-2019, 01:19 AM
If Duke hits above 40 percent from 3 against UVa, I will given any poster 2 to 1 pie odds we win.

Honestly, that seems like kind of a weird way to look at the game. I mean, UVA is the #12 team in the country at shooting 3s, while Duke is #300-ish. Duke is elite at defending 3s, like 10th or 12th in the country, but Virginia is the very best team in the whole country at it.

Could Duke shoot 40% on 3s while (and I recognize you never said this, but I think its implied) shutting down UVA’s 3s? Sure, its absolutely possible, but damn, thats going out of your way to make life tough. I mean, its weakness on strength.

It’d be like me saying “If UVA shuts down Duke’s offensive rebounding completely, I think they’ll win.” Which... is possible. I mean, I assume Duke has had a bad game or two on the offensive glass, and UVA is a good defensive rebounding team. Its possible, but its not super probable, and hinging hopes on it seems weird.

Seems like the battle will be Duke trying to shut down UVA’s 3 point shooting (again) while UVA tries to at least contain Duke inside. Sure, there’s other factors, but that’s probably the heart of the game.

Should be a great game (I’m guessing UVA is around -1.5) and I’m looking forward to it, even if Tony Bennett apparently isn’t aware its happening yet.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-31-2019, 07:26 AM
Honestly, that seems like kind of a weird way to look at the game. I mean, UVA is the #12 team in the country at shooting 3s, while Duke is #300-ish. Duke is elite at defending 3s, like 10th or 12th in the country, but Virginia is the very best team in the whole country at it.

Could Duke shoot 40% on 3s while (and I recognize you never said this, but I think its implied) shutting down UVA’s 3s? Sure, its absolutely possible, but damn, thats going out of your way to make life tough. I mean, its weakness on strength.

It’d be like me saying “If UVA shuts down Duke’s offensive rebounding completely, I think they’ll win.” Which... is possible. I mean, I assume Duke has had a bad game or two on the offensive glass, and UVA is a good defensive rebounding team. Its possible, but its not super probable, and hinging hopes on it seems weird.

Seems like the battle will be Duke trying to shut down UVA’s 3 point shooting (again) while UVA tries to at least contain Duke inside. Sure, there’s other factors, but that’s probably the heart of the game.

Should be a great game (I’m guessing UVA is around -1.5) and I’m looking forward to it, even if Tony Bennett apparently isn’t aware its happening yet.

With due respect, I don't think you followed Mountain Devil's train of thought here....if Duke shoots 40% from 3, on his theory, and on mine by the way, our point is that it doesn't matter what UVa or anyone else does or does not do. If Duke is lethal while shooting 20% from three, maybe the top team in the nation shooting 30% from 3, the theory is here that they are unbeatable at 40%. Mtn Devil seems to think that, as do I, and it doesn't really matter what else goes on in the game.

Now, this theory may be wrong - but the Kentucky game, where Duke shot 45% from 3, tends to support this theory.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-31-2019, 07:38 AM
So far this season, if you gave 10 points in every game, you'd be 15-5 (75%). If you gave 10 points only in games where Duke hit 40+% of its threes, you'd be 4-1 (80%). Not much difference, really.

Just like when you (and others) were saying Duke couldn't win six games in a row against tough competition without shooting at least xx% from three, your current theory is too simplistic. Offense is a complex web of interdependent strands. The various aspects of defense add even more complexity to the web. Trying to pin everything on one strand will never properly predict wins and losses.

First of all, and wow, amazed I have to say this: there's making a rhetorical point - versus a literal interpretation. When I say Duke is unbeatable if they shoot 40% or better from three, that doesn't mean, in context, that they could never lose while doing that. When I come to DBR, I don't come as one doing a math or science experiment. It's more like bellying up to a virtual bar to chat about this stuff. I'm an intuitive 30 thousand foot view kind of thinker.

You are clearly a numbers savant, a detail oriented expert. I mean that sincerely and as a compliment. However, perhaps you might miss the rhetorical nature of some 30 thousand foot view statements from me, and the other kind of Type A thinkers.

So in your 4-1 versus 15-5 comparison...it's interesting but not dispositive of anything. Your stat didn't take into account shot volume or any other factor. ....which in a very small sample it critical. In a larger numerical sample, all that would even out, but when talking 5 games or even 20 games, against wildly differing competition and with wildly varying volume of 3 point shots, the factors cannot even out.

The loss was against Gonzaga who played a fabulous game, and it was early, and a Duke team that had not suffered through the 20% games yet. When I say unbeatable when shooting 40% from 3, what I mean is virtually but not literally unbeatable - from here on out - and not making any commentary on the past games.

Numbers can only take you so far....there is flesh and blood and emotion and circumstances behind all those numbers, and analyzing the numbers only does not contemplate this.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-31-2019, 08:06 AM
With due respect, I don't think you followed Mountain Devil's train of thought here...if Duke shoots 40% from 3, on his theory, and on mine by the way, our point is that it doesn't matter what UVa or anyone else does or does not do. If Duke is lethal while shooting 20% from three, maybe the top team in the nation shooting 30% from 3, the theory is here that they are unbeatable at 40%. Mtn Devil seems to think that, as do I, and it doesn't really matter what else goes on in the game.

Now, this theory may be wrong - but the Kentucky game, where Duke shot 45% from 3, tends to support this theory.

Exactly. The way Duke has persevered through their poor shooting, if we manage to shoot well and keep defenses from packing inside, EVERYTHING flows better and our slashers have more space. Granted, I think we may have a handful of +40 percent games in the second half of the season, and likely they won't be against the top tier teams (though they could be). But, if the Basketball Gods do gift us a 40% or better 3 point percentage against UVa, UNC, or NCAA tournament opponents, I think I would wager two pies to one that we come out on top.

Kedsy
01-31-2019, 08:29 AM
First of all, and wow, amazed I have to say this: there's making a rhetorical point - versus a literal interpretation. When I say Duke is unbeatable if they shoot 40% or better from three, that doesn't mean, in context, that they could never lose while doing that. When I come to DBR, I don't come as one doing a math or science experiment. It's more like bellying up to a virtual bar to chat about this stuff. I'm an intuitive 30 thousand foot view kind of thinker.

You are clearly a numbers savant, a detail oriented expert. I mean that sincerely and as a compliment. However, perhaps you might miss the rhetorical nature of some 30 thousand foot view statements from me, and the other kind of Type A thinkers.

So in your 4-1 versus 15-5 comparison...it's interesting but not dispositive of anything. Your stat didn't take into account shot volume or any other factor. ...which in a very small sample it critical. In a larger numerical sample, all that would even out, but when talking 5 games or even 20 games, against wildly differing competition and with wildly varying volume of 3 point shots, the factors cannot even out.

The loss was against Gonzaga who played a fabulous game, and it was early, and a Duke team that had not suffered through the 20% games yet. When I say unbeatable when shooting 40% from 3, what I mean is virtually but not literally unbeatable - from here on out - and not making any commentary on the past games.

Numbers can only take you so far...there is flesh and blood and emotion and circumstances behind all those numbers, and analyzing the numbers only does not contemplate this.

It’s interesting to me that you say one game doesn’t disprove your theory, when in the post immediately before you use one game to support your theory.

In fact, the “loss” (I use quotes because we’re talking about going against a point spread) was not against Gonzaga, it was against Florida State. We only shot 39% against Gonzaga. If we’d shot just a tad higher, your theory would have failed in 2 out of 6 cases. Which isn’t virtually or literally unbeatable.

You talk about all the factors not taken into account by “my stat,” but that’s exactly my point about yours. You say that “numbers can only take you so far,” and then you talk about small sample size. You dwell on your “30 thousand foot view,” but to me that sounds like just making stuff up without any need for rational support.

What I think you really mean is, all other things being equal, if Duke shoots 10% higher than its average on threes, we’ll probably win big. And that may be true. But all other things are almost never equal, so I’m not so impressed with your “flesh and blood and emotion and circumstances.”

HereBeforeCoachK
01-31-2019, 11:43 AM
It’s interesting to me that you say one game doesn’t disprove your theory, when in the post immediately before you use one game to support your theory.

In fact, the “loss” (I use quotes because we’re talking about going against a point spread) was not against Gonzaga, it was against Florida State. We only shot 39% against Gonzaga. If we’d shot just a tad higher, your theory would have failed in 2 out of 6 cases. Which isn’t virtually or literally unbeatable.

You talk about all the factors not taken into account by “my stat,” but that’s exactly my point about yours. You say that “numbers can only take you so far,” and then you talk about small sample size. You dwell on your “30 thousand foot view,” but to me that sounds like just making stuff up without any need for rational support.

What I think you really mean is, all other things being equal, if Duke shoots 10% higher than its average on threes, we’ll probably win big. And that may be true. But all other things are almost never equal, so I’m not so impressed with your “flesh and blood and emotion and circumstances.”

HAH Mr. Numbers, according to ESPN box score, Duke did NOT shoot 40% against the Zags, 38% on low volume...so they have NOT lost while shooting 40% from three. I would also add that the Zags had a way above average night of 53% from 3 against Duke...and still barely won the game. So your one game proof falls flat. I would remind you that the other time Duke lost, they shot barely 20% from three...on very high volume...and again, barely lost, to another team shooting lights out. There were other extremes in that game as well.

BTW, Duke hits one more 3 against the Zags, taking them over 40%, they very likely do win. Duke hit 45% against UK, on pretty high volume, and ran them out of the gym.

Moreover, I wasn't using one game to prove my theory, I was using one game to show the flaws in yours. (and that was before I knew you were wrong on that game). Besides, my theory is a rhetorical and general theory....again, you are the one claiming to come here with the absolutes - I'm talking in general. Your burden of proof is like 100X mine....in fact, I don't have a burden to prove - because my theory is not a science experiment or a math equation. It's a hunch....that so far is holding up.

And there is a huge flaw in your logic above...when I say numbers can only take you so far...then I am SUPPORTING THAT WITH THE notion that your sample size is too small. It's the opposite of contradicting myself. And you still don't get that I'm talking GOING FORWARD so basically I'm saying that what happened in the past is of limited consequence to what I am saying. I do not think we will lose another game where we shoot 40% from three, and I'm willing to lay ten points on that to any team.

I am not surprised you do not understand thirty thousand foot view thinking...because you're kind of debating points I (and others) are not even contending.

BandAlum83
01-31-2019, 11:55 AM
It’s interesting to me that you say one game doesn’t disprove your theory, when in the post immediately before you use one game to support your theory.

In fact, the “loss” (I use quotes because we’re talking about going against a point spread) was not against Gonzaga, it was against Florida State. We only shot 39% against Gonzaga. If we’d shot just a tad higher, your theory would have failed in 2 out of 6 cases. Which isn’t virtually or literally unbeatable.

You talk about all the factors not taken into account by “my stat,” but that’s exactly my point about yours. You say that “numbers can only take you so far,” and then you talk about small sample size. You dwell on your “30 thousand foot view,” but to me that sounds like just making stuff up without any need for rational support.

What I think you really mean is, all other things being equal, if Duke shoots 10% higher than its average on threes, we’ll probably win big. And that may be true. But all other things are almost never equal, so I’m not so impressed with your “flesh and blood and emotion and circumstances.”

Kedsy, buddy! You know I love you, but really, isn't that why the internet was invented?

uh_no
01-31-2019, 12:27 PM
just making stuff up without any need for rational support.

What I think you really mean is, all other things being equal, if Duke shoots 10% higher than its average on threes, we’ll probably win big. And that may be true. But all other things are almost never equal, so I’m not so impressed with your “flesh and blood and emotion and circumstances.”

Well, I might not have direct proof, but I'll stand by my earlier assertion that if we hit a higher percentage of our shots, we'll score more points :D

BandAlum83
01-31-2019, 12:33 PM
Well, I might not have direct proof, but I'll stand by my earlier assertion that if we hit a higher percentage of our shots, we'll score more points :D

Unless it's against UVA and we play at their glacial pace :)

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
01-31-2019, 12:36 PM
Well, I might not have direct proof, but I'll stand by my earlier assertion that if we hit a higher percentage of our shots, we'll score more points :D

If we score more points than UVa, I will up my wager to 5 pies against 1 that we emerge victorious.

uh_no
01-31-2019, 12:50 PM
Unless it's against UVA and we play at their glacial pace :)

quick DBR quiz: what's 10% more of nothing?

devildeac
01-31-2019, 12:54 PM
quick DBR quiz: what's 10% more of nothing?

"That ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Money for nothin' and chicks for free."

wk2109
01-31-2019, 01:13 PM
HAH Mr. Numbers, according to ESPN box score, Duke did NOT shoot 40% against the Zags, 38% on low volume...so they have NOT lost while shooting 40% from three. I would also add that the Zags had a way above average night of 53% from 3 against Duke...and still barely won the game. So your one game proof falls flat. I would remind you that the other time Duke lost, they shot barely 20% from three...on very high volume...and again, barely lost, to another team shooting lights out. There were other extremes in that game as well.

Congrats (I guess), but you're wrong about a few things:

1) Kedsy never said Duke shot 40% from three against Gonzaga.


In fact, the “loss” (I use quotes because we’re talking about going against a point spread) was not against Gonzaga, it was against Florida State. We only shot 39% against Gonzaga.

2) Even if Duke had shot 40% from three and had beaten Gonzaga, Duke would have had to win by 10+ for you to be right, because, as Kedsy correct stated, your original premise was not only that Duke would win any game in which it shot 40%, but that you'd give 10 points to the opponent as well.


I agree, but I'll still lay ten points to any team any where in a game where Duke hits 40%.

jimsumner
01-31-2019, 01:15 PM
"That ain't workin' that's the way you do it
Money for nothin' and chicks for free."

"Too much of nothing can make a man feel ill at ease."

B. Dylan

Kedsy
01-31-2019, 01:16 PM
In fact, the “loss” (I use quotes because we’re talking about going against a point spread) was not against Gonzaga, it was against Florida State. We only shot 39% against Gonzaga. If we’d shot just a tad higher, your theory would have failed in 2 out of 6 cases. Which isn’t virtually or literally unbeatable.


HAH Mr. Numbers, according to ESPN box score, Duke did NOT shoot 40% against the Zags, 38% on low volume...so they have NOT lost while shooting 40% from three. I would also add that the Zags had a way above average night of 53% from 3 against Duke...and still barely won the game. So your one game proof falls flat. I would remind you that the other time Duke lost, they shot barely 20% from three...on very high volume...and again, barely lost, to another team shooting lights out. There were other extremes in that game as well.

I guess we can add faulty reading comprehension to your list of "flesh and blood emotions." As I clearly said in the post you quoted, (a) when I said "loss" I was referring to losses against a 10-point spread; (b) the "loss" was not against Gonzaga, it was against Florida State; and (c) we shot 39% against Gonzaga (really 38.5% but without a decimal rounding up should be fine in a conversation like this).

So your childish "HAH Mr. Numbers" post is completely off base. And my "one game proof" not only didn't fall flat, it is somewhat supported by a second loss (against the 10-point spread) when our team very nearly shot 40% from three.


BTW, Duke hits one more 3 against the Zags, taking them over 40%, they very likely do win.

Yeah? What if the shooter had one foot on the line during one of our three-point misses (making it a two-point shot)? That would have also put us over 40% from three. And either way it would still have been a loss if you were giving 10 points, which was the entire basis of this conversation.


Duke hit 45% against UK, on pretty high volume, and ran them out of the gym.

Duke hit 46% from three against FSU, on higher volume than against UK, and barely escaped with a W (and, again, it would be counted as an "L" if we were giving 10 points).


Moreover, I wasn't using one game to prove my theory, I was using one game to show the flaws in yours.

If that's what you were doing, you failed miserably.


(and that was before I knew you were wrong on that game)

Except I wasn't.



Besides, my theory is a rhetorical and general theory...again, you are the one claiming to come here with the absolutes - I'm talking in general. Your burden of proof is like 100X mine...in fact, I don't have a burden to prove - because my theory is not a science experiment or a math equation. It's a hunch...that so far is holding up.

And there is a huge flaw in your logic above...when I say numbers can only take you so far...then I am SUPPORTING THAT WITH THE notion that your sample size is too small. It's the opposite of contradicting myself. And you still don't get that I'm talking GOING FORWARD so basically I'm saying that what happened in the past is of limited consequence to what I am saying. I do not think we will lose another game where we shoot 40% from three, and I'm willing to lay ten points on that to any team.

I am not surprised you do not understand thirty thousand foot view thinking...because you're kind of debating points I (and others) are not even contending.

Give it a rest, dude. You repeated the same thing (that Duke is at least 10 points better than anyone if Duke shoots 40+% from three), like eleventeen times, as if it's some incontrovertible fact, and then when someone points out that it isn't a fact at all, you get on your high horse and pontificate about how numbers aren't everything. Well, your unsubstantiated (often debunked) opinions aren't everything, either.

I use numbers to confirm or deny something I see with my eyes. I notice what I think is an interesting phenomenon (or something that someone else says that doesn't seem right), then I check the stats to see if I'm right or not. If the stats show my eye test is incorrect, I accept that my feeling was wrong and move on. In similar circumstances you seem to double down and say that the numbers must be wrong, because you obviously can't be.

And regarding "thirty thousand foot view thinking," could you possibly be more condescending, please? I found a website with a definitition of "30,000 foot view" (https://askthemanager.com/2008/11/the-25-most-annoying-business-phrases/#.XFM4crh7mM8) that I think fits your use of it perfectly:


“the 30,000-foot view” is often uttered by pompous managers who believe they see the big picture that the rest of us are somehow missing.

Beyond that, you don't appear to be using this phrase correctly; you haven't been talking about a "big picture." You've been attempting to make the picture smaller, essentially saying that 3-point shooting is the only stat that matters for this year's Duke team. Which is clearly incorrect.

devildeac
01-31-2019, 01:25 PM
"Too much of nothing can make a man feel ill at ease."

B. Dylan

"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'"

;)

BandAlum83
01-31-2019, 01:35 PM
I guess we can add faulty reading comprehension to your list of "flesh and blood emotions."

Give it a rest, dude. You repeated the same thing (that Duke is at least 10 points better than anyone if Duke shoots 40+% from three), like eleventeen times...

I use numbers to confirm or deny something I see with my eyes.

BOOM!!! (mic drop)

And Kedsy once again proves he has some next level, mad skill, savant number and stats knowledge!

HereBeforeCoachK
01-31-2019, 05:09 PM
Give it a rest, dude. You repeated the same thing (that Duke is at least 10 points better than anyone if Duke shoots 40+% from three), like eleventeen times, -
t.

Wow, read much? I said I would LAY TEN POINTS to anyone....that's clearly an opinion - and I will. You want in on some of that? If you can't tell the difference, then we aren't speaking the same language.

elvis14
01-31-2019, 05:39 PM
This thread is a perfect example why it's best to unsubscribe from post game threads about 48 hours after the game. For the ZOTM threads.

I miss the kinder gentler DBR....

DU82
01-31-2019, 06:57 PM
quick DBR quiz: what's 10% more of nothing?

UNC-CH "Classes"?

szstark
01-31-2019, 08:43 PM
This thread is a perfect example why it's best to unsubscribe from post game threads about 48 hours after the game. For the ZOTM threads.

I miss the kinder gentler DBR...

... as do I ...

Steven43
01-31-2019, 08:57 PM
... as do I ...

How ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm once they've seen Karl Hungus? The genie is out of the bottle.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-01-2019, 07:54 AM
Lordy. I mentioned off-handedly that the way Duke is playing, I would wager lots of pies that we win games if we shoot well from three points, and seem to have set off a urination contest between posters.

I would request that my innocuous comment be stricken from the record so we can all get back to supporting our Blue Devils in unison.

Indoor66
02-01-2019, 08:18 AM
Lordy. I mentioned off-handedly that the way Duke is playing, I would wager lots of pies that we win games if we shoot well from three points, and seem to have set off a urination contest between posters.

I would request that my innocuous comment be stricken from the record so we can all get back to supporting our Blue Devils in unison.

I think we all support the Blue Devils. It is just that some here have to be "right" and have to get in the last word.

Jeffrey
02-01-2019, 11:12 AM
quick DBR quiz: what's 10% more of nothing?

Progress in D.C.

DukieInBrasil
02-01-2019, 11:42 AM
Progress in D.C.

i think we'd all take the square root of -10% as progress in DC.

devildeac
02-01-2019, 01:37 PM
I think we all support the Blue Devils. It is just that some here have to be "right" and have to get in the last word.

Your/you're/yer "wrong."

(;))