This Week in the ACC: 1/28-2/3

[pfrduke]

Not quite halfway through the season but it's looking like an 8-bid league. Everyone from Florida State and up in the standings looks to be in pretty good shape; everyone else - yeesh. Barring miraculous last months, Clemson is the only one with even a snowball's chance, and the best thing you can say for Clemson is that their schedule gives them opportunities for major scalps at Littlejohn - they get to host VT, UNC, Syracuse, and FSU - but at 1-5 already they need to basically go 10-2 down the stretch to get in contention.

Monday

[84]Notre Dame (1-6) (+14) hosts [2]Duke (6-1) (7:00, ESPN)

Tuesday

[32]NC State (4-3) (+10) hosts [1]Virginia (6-1) (7:00, ESPN2)
[78]Georgia Tech (3-4) (+8) hosts [8]North Carolina (5-1) (7:00, ACCNE)
[50]Clemson (1-5) (-6) hosts [64]Pittsburgh (2-5) (9:00, ESPNU)

Wednesday

[103]Miami (1-6) (+8) hosts [9]Virginia Tech (5-2) (7:00, ESPN2)
[167]Wake Forest (1-6) (+11) hosts [14]Louisville (5-1) (8:00, ACCNE)
[106]Boston College (2-4) (+3) hosts [36]Syracuse (5-2 (8:00, ACCNE)

Thursday and Friday are dark

Saturday

[2]Duke (-19) hosts [54]St. John's (12:00, ESPN)
[32]NC State (4-3) (+1) hosts [9]Virginia Tech (5-2) (12:00, ACCNE)
[28]Florida State (3-4) (-10) hosts [78]Georgia Tech (3-4) (12:00, ACCNE)
[1]Virginia (6-1) (-22) hosts [103]Miami (1-6) (2:00, ACCNE)
[14]Louisville (6-1) (-2) hosts [8]North Carolina (5-1) (2:00, ESPN)
[106]Boston College (2-4) (-2) hosts [84]Notre Dame (1-6) (4:00, ACCNE)
[64]Pittsburgh (2-5) (-1) hosts [36]Syracuse (5-2) (6:00, ESPN2)

Sunday

[50]Clemson (1-5) (-13) hosts [167]Wake Forest (1-6) (12:00, ESPNU)


ACC Non-Conference: 148-41
ACC vs. Power 5: 29-26

Efficiency margin (unadjusted) in conference play only:

Virginia - +30.3*
Louisville - +18.8
Duke - +13.4
North Carolina - +10.7
Virginia Tech - +5.3
Syracuse - +3.5
NC State - -0.4
Florida State - -1.3
Georgia Tech - -5.6
Boston College - -10.3
Pittsburgh - -11.0
Clemson - -11.4
Miami - -12.3
Notre Dame - -13.1
Wake Forest - -17.8

*UVA is destroying conference opponents. For reference, the other first place teams in major conferences are, in conference play, +24.9 (Tennessee), +19.7 (Washington)**, +18.8 (Michigan State), +16.1 (Villanova), +3.0 (Kansas State - tied at 5-2 with Kansas which is only +1.8).

**Pac-12 is not a real major conference this year.

[ChillinDuke]

I just stumbled upon a pretty amazing stat. UNC, which is ranked #8 in KenPom, is expected to lose to both Duke and UVA...at home. That's pretty remarkable that the #8 team is expected to be an underdog at home, well, ever let alone twice in the remaining schedule.

That really is a testament to how strong Duke and UVA are this year.

- Chillin

[tbyers11]

I just stumbled upon a pretty amazing stat. UNC, which is ranked #8 in KenPom, is expected to lose to both Duke and UVA...at home. That's pretty remarkable that the #8 team is expected to be an underdog at home, well, ever let alone twice in the remaining schedule.

That really is a testament to how strong Duke and UVA are this year.

- Chillin

Yes, Ken Pom has UVA and Duke, and to a lesser extent, Michigan St and Gonzaga rated very highly.

The numerical difference in Adjusted Efficiency Margin between #1 UVA and #8 UNC is the same as between #8 UNC and #61 Toledo
The numerical difference in Adjusted Efficiency Margin between #2 Duke and #8 UNC is the same as between #8 UNC and #41 Syracuse

[devildeac]

I just stumbled upon a pretty amazing stat. UNC, which is ranked #8 in KenPom, is expected to lose to both Duke and UVA...at home. That's pretty remarkable that the #8 team is expected to be an underdog at home, well, ever let alone twice in the remaining schedule.

That really is a testament to how strong Duke and UVA are this year.

- Chillin

Please don't point that out to the commish, though he might already know and be making other "arrangements." :mad:

[OldPhiKap]

Please don't point that out to the commish, though he might already know and be making other "arrangements." :mad:

“Quick! Get me Ted Valentine!”

[Bob Green]

Halftime: UVa 27, NCSU 23.

State hanging with UVa with tough defense and 3 PT shooting. State has forced 8 UVa turnovers and made 3 3-pointers. Kyle Guy has scored 3 points all from the free throw line.

It could be an exciting 2nd half.

[DukieInBrasil]

NCSU now down 9 after giving up consecutive 3s, one of which came after 2 or 3 blocked shots, scrum for the ball and then rotation for an open corner 3. Tough break for State on that one.
State just klutzed a defensive board out of bounds for a sweet, effortless Oboard for UVA. State looks completely whacked by UVA's defense to start the 2nd half.

[robed deity]

Man, this Virginia team. Frustrating style to watch, but they are scary good.

[Bob Green]

Virginia has expanded their lead to 11.

Jay Huff is better than Jack Salt. I'd be interested in hearing from our UVa members on that statement.

[DukieInBrasil]

Man, this Virginia team. Frustrating style to watch, but they are scary good.

State is helping UVA by playing almost entirely a 1on1 offense, i don't think i've seen an assist yet in the 2nd half.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Jay Huff is better than Jack Salt. I'd be interested in hearing from our UVa members on that statement.

I was thinking the same thing.....I predict Huff will replace his minutes in the near future.

[W&LHoo]

Virginia has expanded their lead to 11.

Jay Huff is better than Jack Salt. I'd be interested in hearing from our UVa members on that statement.

Not defensively. He’s improving dramatically on that end of the floor, both because he’s missing fewer steps on a set defense and because he’s trying as hard as he possibly can to earn more PT. Salt, on the other hand, is a defensive rock. Just completely gets what he’s there to do and does it.

On the other end of the floor though . . . Jack doesn’t do much for us. He’ll clean stuff up or get a rebound now and again, but he’s not a significant offensive factor. Meanwhile Jay Huff can score from deep or around the bucket.

This wasn’t even a close call in favor of Salt three months ago, but now I tend to agree overall.

[Bob Green]

State has cut the lead to 4 with an 13-3 run. This one isn't over.

[robed deity]

Virginia doesn't look super comfortable handling a press, surprisingly.

[Stray Gator]

Not defensively. He’s improving dramatically on that end of the floor, both because he’s missing fewer steps on a set defense and because he’s trying as hard as he possibly can to earn more PT. Salt, on the other hand, is a defensive rock. Just completely gets what he’s there to do and does it.

On the other end of the floor though . . . Jack doesn’t do much for us. He’ll clean stuff up or get a rebound now and again, but he’s not a significant offensive factor. Meanwhile Jay Huff can score from deep or around the bucket.

This wasn’t even a close call in favor of Salt three months ago, but now I tend to agree overall.

Stated another way, Salt is -- at least for now -- more proficient at playing Bennett-style defense by employing such patented techniques as the "Hoo hip-check," the "Cavalier butt-bump," and the "Charlottesville tummy-shove." ;)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I really wanted to bet on this one...but I couldn't get comfortable with either side of the number. Maybe that's a good thing now.

[-jk]

And... OT!

-jk

[BandAlum83]

I really wanted to bet on this one...but I couldn't get comfortable with either side of the number. Maybe that's a good thing now.

Here I hoping for either a 15-7 uva overtime, or a uVA loss with under 31 scored in Ot

[PackMan97]

I really wanted to bet on this one...but I couldn't get comfortable with either side of the number. Maybe that's a good thing now.

You can always bet that State will make a FT when we want to miss it and miss a FT when we want to make it.

[Wahoo2000]

I was thinking the same thing....I predict Huff will replace his minutes in the near future.

Huff a much better scorer and passer. Salt a better defender, screener, rebounder.

Jay will have his day, but I think it'll be next year. He still desperately needs about 15-20 more lbs, and about 500 more minutes of game experience in the pack line. I've said it before and I'll say it again - he's on the Kaminsky track. I don't mean he'll be as good as Frank, but I think he'll be an excellent, likely all-ACC performer before he's done at Virginia.

[CameronDuke]

NCSU gave Virginia a run but Virginia continued their domination of the ACC and of NCSU. I believe Tony Bennett is 12-3 vs NCSU in his career at Virginia now. Virginia moves to 19-1, 7-1. They actually played pretty poorly compared to their usual execution with many turnovers and uncharacteristic fouls. Had NCSU made a few more free throws or 3s in regulation they would have likely won. Overall, NCSU played hard but just couldn't hit a clutch 3 or free throw when it mattered.

[sagegrouse]

NCSU gave Virginia a run but Virginia continued their domination of the ACC and of NCSU. I believe Tony Bennett is 12-3 vs NCSU in his career at Virginia now. Virginia moves to 19-1, 7-1. They actually played pretty poorly compared to their usual execution with many turnovers and uncharacteristic fouls. Had NCSU made a few more free throws or 3s in regulation they would have likely won. Overall, NCSU played hard but just couldn't hit a clutch 3 or free throw when it mattered.

Markell Johnson with three free throws to tie at 0.98 seconds of OT: he missed one he had to make, and then he made one he had to miss. :(

[Wahoo2000]

NCSU gave Virginia a run but Virginia continued their domination of the ACC and of NCSU. I believe Tony Bennett is 12-3 vs NCSU in his career at Virginia now. Virginia moves to 19-1, 7-1. They actually played pretty poorly compared to their usual execution with many turnovers and uncharacteristic fouls. Had NCSU made a few more free throws or 3s in regulation they would have likely won. Overall, NCSU played hard but just couldn't hit a clutch 3 or free throw when it mattered.

Some credit goes to State for sure for really playing some relentless pressure man-to-man, but honestly, a TON of those turnovers were just stupid/careless plays by our guys. Guy and Jerome looked especially winded, almost from the outset. Just hoping they don't have that nasty flu/respiratory thing going around. Everyone I know with that thing was really sick for about 3-4 days, but then just tired and wheezy for like 2 weeks.

UVA definitely played their "B" (or maybe even "C") game tonight. Hope we can course correct before Miami on Saturday, then enjoy a little extra time off before a massive rematch with Duke. One thing I do know - if we bring the same focus and effort as tonight against Duke, we'll lose by 40.

[BandAlum83]

Xfinity stat page is showing Clemson’s first half true shooting percentage at 92%

Pretty good half, huh?

[CameronDuke]

Some credit goes to State for sure for really playing some relentless pressure man-to-man, but honestly, a TON of those turnovers were just stupid/careless plays by our guys. Guy and Jerome looked especially winded, almost from the outset. Just hoping they don't have that nasty flu/respiratory thing going around. Everyone I know with that thing was really sick for about 3-4 days, but then just tired and wheezy for like 2 weeks.

UVA definitely played their "B" (or maybe even "C") game tonight. Hope we can course correct before Miami on Saturday, then enjoy a little extra time off before a massive rematch with Duke. One thing I do know - if we bring the same focus and effort as tonight against Duke, we'll lose by 40.

Yeah I thought Jerome looked very tired and fatigued for the majority of the game too. He did appear like he was playing sick like you mentioned. Winning on the road in the ACC no matter the venue is tough, especially at NCSU. Huge NHL arena with a high ceiling and different sight lines for shooters. To play somewhat poorly in many aspects of the game (by Virginia's standards) and still grab a road win is big. The wins all look the same in the final standings.

[Troublemaker]

Very disappointed in Braxton Beverly's shot selection down 3 points with 11 seconds remaining in OT. Even though he made the shot (see below), I mean, that's a really tough runner / long-distance floater. If you're going to attempt a difficult shot like that, you might as well just pull up for the 3 in Kyle Guy's face and get the tie if you happen to make the shot (instead of being down 1 when making the runner). Instead, NCSU had to foul a great FT shooting team, who sank the two FTs, which meant NCSU had to attempt a much more difficult 3 at the buzzer than the 3 Beverly might've canned if he had pulled up on Guy.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/JadedOldfashionedBanteng-size_restricted.gif

[PackMan97]

Very disappointed in Braxton Beverly's shot selection down 3 points with 11 seconds remaining in OT.

It doesn't help that Beverly was clearly hammered on that play. Darn those refs! Did you see how many more fouls State had in this game? and I can't believe how many more FT's that UVa shot than NC State. ACC refs are such a disgrace!

:rolleyes:

[ChillinDuke]

Very disappointed in Braxton Beverly's shot selection down 3 points with 11 seconds remaining in OT. Even though he made the shot (see below), I mean, that's a really tough runner / long-distance floater. If you're going to attempt a difficult shot like that, you might as well just pull up for the 3 in Kyle Guy's face and get the tie if you happen to make the shot (instead of being down 1 when making the runner). Instead, NCSU had to foul a great FT shooting team, who sank the two FTs, which meant NCSU had to attempt a much more difficult 3 at the buzzer than the 3 Beverly might've canned if he had pulled up on Guy.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/JadedOldfashionedBanteng-size_restricted.gif

Couldn't agree more and my exact thoughts when I was watching last night.

The play there really is a three or a driving layup if they immediately concede it. And IMO, it's a three and a three only. NCSU, historically, loses that game exactly how they lost that game. I know Keatts is the new sheriff in town and may take the program in a new direction. But in that scenario, my choice would be (a) tie or lose and not (b) trail by 1, foul, try again with less time.

It was very State-like.

- Chillin

[UrinalCake]

But they almost stole the inbounds pass, which would have given them a shot at winning the game outright.

It’s a tough decision. You’d love to get a three, but the defense is playing you for that so in most cases you expect to be able to get a relatively easy layup.

Big picture-wise, every team is going to have games where things don’t go right and you just don’t have it. You hope that it doesn’t coincide with your opponent having a game where everything DOES go right for them. And if you’re really good, you can have both of those things happen and still win, which is what UVA was able to do.

[left_hook_lacey]

I still don't believe in VA. I made a pie bet last year that they wouldn't make it to the elite eight and I'm willing to make it again if anyone is interested.

Virginia is good, don't get me wrong. But they are a gimmick, smoke and mirrors team. They are the epitome of a coach using a system to get the absolute most out of his team and players. But when the bright lights come on, talent wins out eventually.

[PackMan97]

It was very State-like.

- Chillin

Disagree. A State team when down by 14 to the best defensive program in the country would have collapsed and lost by 25. Not comeback and pushed it to overtime.

State still has issues, but having an abundance of NC State *@$#% is no longer one of them.

My guess is Beverly was hoping to draw a foul, but didn't. Either way, we had a shot to tie it and send it to a second OT...and then the FT's to tie it again. We had our chances.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Disagree. A State team when down by 14 to the best defensive program in the country would have collapsed and lost by 25. Not comeback and pushed it to overtime.

State still has issues, but having an abundance of NC State *@$#% is no longer one of them.

My guess is Beverly was hoping to draw a foul, but didn't. Either way, we had a shot to tie it and send it to a second OT...and then the FT's to tie it again. We had our chances.

I agree with you about State in general....but I don't think there's any defense for that decision by Beverly. Much more likely to get three there by pump fake on the three, than trying to predict an and one scenario.

[ElliottHoo]

I still don't believe in VA. I made a pie bet last year that they wouldn't make it to the elite eight and I'm willing to make it again if anyone is interested.

Virginia is good, don't get me wrong. But they are a gimmick, smoke and mirrors team. They are the epitome of a coach using a system to get the absolute most out of his team and players. But when the bright lights come on, talent wins out eventually.

Long-time lurker, first time poster with great respect for the site. Just quickly noting this take isn't really true as UVA's talent is higher than it used to be. Of the 8 players UVA used vs NCSU, 6 were ESPN top 100 recruits (Salt and Clark the outliers) and 4 of the 6 were top 50 (Guy, Jerome, Diakite, and Key though he was Braxton Blackwell when he committed to Alabama).

The underperformance in March is certainly fair, but blaming it on a lack of talent hasn't really been accurate in a while.

[PackMan97]

The underperformance in March is certainly fair, but blaming it on a lack of talent hasn't really been accurate in a while.

Every team that is good for more than a year or two is going to have that criticism. Only 4 teams make the final four every year...which means there are another 10-15 that everyone will feel "underperformed" given either preseason expectations or based on how well they did during the season.

[CameronBlue]

Long-time lurker, first time poster with great respect for the site. Just quickly noting this take isn't really true as UVA's talent is higher than it used to be. Of the 8 players UVA used vs NCSU, 6 were ESPN top 100 recruits (Salt and Clark the outliers) and 4 of the 6 were top 50 (Guy, Jerome, Diakite, and Key though he was Braxton Blackwell when he committed to Alabama).

The underperformance in March is certainly fair, but blaming it on a lack of talent hasn't really been accurate in a while.

I actually agree with LHL's take but I think "smoke and mirrors" is probably what you really find objectionable. Virginia's talent has improved but they looked "amazingly unathletic" and slow last evening which I think is a closer description of the talent Virginia has on hand. But there's a compliment buried in that statement. It really underscores the remarkable job Bennett has done at Virginia. Bennett is a burgeoning coaching genius, not a side show huckster.

Tournament basketball is different and when everyone's focus sharpens a bit, talent does tend to rise to the occasion. Bennett has to show he can adapt his system and find tournament success. But many of the game's best coaches had to shake off the "can't win the big one" label at some point in their careers; they too needed time to adjust. The jury is still out on whether Bennett can get Va to the title but even with K around at Duke, the GOAT, I'm a little envious and what Virginia is developing in Charlottesville. They are a fun team to watch (no they really are!)

[ACCfaninVirginia]

It doesn't help that Beverly was clearly hammered on that play. Darn those refs! Did you see how many more fouls State had in this game? and I can't believe how many more FT's that UVa shot than NC State. ACC refs are such a disgrace!

:rolleyes:

But UVA shot 74% versus 67% for NCSU.
But refs were whistle crazy both ways, 16 on NCSU, 22 on Virginia or 38 total for the game - almost a foul a minute, but same number as UVA-Duke. Compare that to 25 total in the UNC-GT game, 40 in the Clemson-Pitt Game, 29 in the Duke-ND game, 34 in the FSU-Miami game, 17 in the UVA-ND game, 30 in the Duke-GT game, 32 in the VT-Syracuse game, 31 in the NCSU-Clemson game, 34 in Pit Lville, 23 in BC-Wake, to cite a few recent games - but it was an OT game so had 5 extra minutes.

NCSU had 16 offensive rebounds, but seemed like there was a lot of uncalled contact by their players in going for those.

[royalblue]

I still don't believe in VA. I made a pie bet last year that they wouldn't make it to the elite eight and I'm willing to make it again if anyone is interested.

Virginia is good, don't get me wrong. But they are a gimmick, smoke and mirrors team. They are the epitome of a coach using a system to get the absolute most out of his team and players. But when the bright lights come on, talent wins out eventually.

I would want to see the bracket but I think you lose that bet this year. Better team than last year and motivated like a
93 Unc-ch team back to back Duke
02 Maryland team 01 games with Duke
10 Duke team Unc titles in 05 and 09
17 Unc-ch Team Jenkins shot
19 UVA beat by 16 seed

Health the biggest factor
Motivated alone is not enough but also they have a better team.
Especially on the offensive end

[PackMan97]

But UVA shot 74% versus 67% for NCSU.

My post was only made because as a State fan I swore a blood oath to *@#$% about the refs after any loss (and half our wins) regardless of whether it was warranted or not. You may notice, not a single thing I said was actually a valid criticism.

[left_hook_lacey]

Long-time lurker, first time poster with great respect for the site. Just quickly noting this take isn't really true as UVA's talent is higher than it used to be. Of the 8 players UVA used vs NCSU, 6 were ESPN top 100 recruits (Salt and Clark the outliers) and 4 of the 6 were top 50 (Guy, Jerome, Diakite, and Key though he was Braxton Blackwell when he committed to Alabama).

The underperformance in March is certainly fair, but blaming it on a lack of talent hasn't really been accurate in a while.


Fair point, and welcome to the board.


I guess I was trying to give UVA the benefit of the doubt by blaming talent for the tournament lapses.

If it's not talent then what is it? Can't be coaching, Tony Bennet apparently invented defense if you listen to some pundits and admirers on DBR. 😂


It has just been too many years in a row of "this is virgina's year", or "this team is better than last year's" with the same post-season results. Call me a scorned lover, I've just been burned too many times on my bracket. When I started betting against UVA in the tournament, I started having more success. And pie. (Thanks Richard Jackson!)


UVA just reminds me of that kid that everyone had on their team growing up. He wasn't the most athletic, or physically dominating, but he was good enough to get playing time. Worked hard, knew the offense, could hit a shot if open, fundamentaly sound, etc. etc.

Then, that kid has to go up against a team of D1 prospects in the post-season and gets exposed. That's what it feels like happens to UVA in the tournament.


Just saying if it's not talent (anymore), and it's not coaching, then what is it? Bad luck? Bad bracket(s)?

[sagegrouse]

I still don't believe in VA. I made a pie bet last year that they wouldn't make it to the elite eight and I'm willing to make it again if anyone is interested.

Virginia is good, don't get me wrong. But they are a gimmick, smoke and mirrors team. They are the epitome of a coach using a system to get the absolute most out of his team and players. But when the bright lights come on, talent wins out eventually.

You may be right, but only if Z and RJ present talent levels and/or match-up problems for this particularly set of UVa players. Virginia is slaughtering most conference opponents this year, and the ACC is liekly the strongest conference (I am always skeptical of the Big Ten). I think the Cavalier team is really good and has a number of NBA players, particularly but not exclusively Hunter and Jerome.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

My post was only made because as a State fan I swore a blood oath to *@#$% about the refs after any loss (and half our wins) regardless of whether it was warranted or not. You may notice, not a single thing I said was actually a valid criticism.


You must spread some Comments around before commenting on PackMan97 again

I like the cut of your jib. Good attitude.

I was also very impressed that the Wolfpack fought back so gamely.

[CameronDuke]

Fair point, and welcome to the board.


I guess I was trying to give UVA the benefit of the doubt by blaming talent for the tournament lapses.

If it's not talent then what is it? Can't be coaching, Tony Bennet apparently invented defense if you listen to some pundits and admirers on DBR. 😂


It has just been too many years in a row of "this is virgina's year", or "this team is better than last year's" with the same post-season results. Call me a scorned lover, I've just been burned too many times on my bracket. When I started betting against UVA in the tournament, I started having more success. And pie. (Thanks Richard Jackson!)


UVA just reminds me of that kid that everyone had on their team growing up. He wasn't the most athletic, or physically dominating, but he was good enough to get playing time. Worked hard, knew the offense, could hit a shot if open, fundamentaly sound, etc. etc.

Then, that kid has to go up against a team of D1 prospects in the post-season and gets exposed. That's what it feels like happens to UVA in the tournament.


Just saying if it's not talent (anymore), and it's not coaching, then what is it? Bad luck? Bad bracket(s)?

Virginia was missing likely NBA lottery pick DeAndre Hunter when they lost to UMBC last year so maybe injuries could be an answer?

I'd offer style of play too. If they get down big in an elimination game, it's hard for their deliberate style of play to get them back in the game (see 20 point blowout to UMBC last year). Further, they (like anyone really) are very uncomfortable when taken out of their system or when a team gets hot (see Cuse game in 2016 elite eight when Virginia was up 15 with 9 minutes left and lost with a trip to the final four on the line).

If a team gets hot from 3, anyone can be beaten including Virginia.

Time will tell if Virginia can get to a final four or further this year. The NCAAT is simply a different animal. Their success in the toughest league in the nation (24-2 in last 26 ACC regular season games plus won the 2018 ACC Tournament title) tells me they are legitimate. Only a matter of time until it clicks in the NCAAT in my opinion.

[ChillinDuke]

Disagree. A State team when down by 14 to the best defensive program in the country would have collapsed and lost by 25. Not comeback and pushed it to overtime.

State still has issues, but having an abundance of NC State *@$#% is no longer one of them.

My guess is Beverly was hoping to draw a foul, but didn't. Either way, we had a shot to tie it and send it to a second OT...and then the FT's to tie it again. We had our chances.

Maybe. I obviously don't follow them as closely as you do. My sense is that when State gets into a close one, they can't handle the moment and just start jacking. Maybe that wasn't the case the entire game but it certainly was toward the middle of overtime when they took at least two threes that made no sense whatsoever in a one possession game. And it was certainly my perception of what they did in the UNC game down the stretch.

And there was no way I had confidence that Johnson would go 3-3 from the line either. Against Duke? For sure! He'd probably go 5-3 from the line somehow. But not against VA (and not against UNC).

That is my historical perception of the bar that NC State has struggled to clear to elevate back into the upper echelon of college hoops. And it's my perception to this day - although, objectively, Keatts is having a nice start. Didn't Gottfried have a nice start though, too?

- Chillin

[OldPhiKap]

Long-time lurker, first time poster with great respect for the site. Just quickly noting this take isn't really true as UVA's talent is higher than it used to be. Of the 8 players UVA used vs NCSU, 6 were ESPN top 100 recruits (Salt and Clark the outliers) and 4 of the 6 were top 50 (Guy, Jerome, Diakite, and Key though he was Braxton Blackwell when he committed to Alabama).

The underperformance in March is certainly fair, but blaming it on a lack of talent hasn't really been accurate in a while.

Great post and fully agree. Hope you post more often if the urge hits.

I would expect to be a slight underdog at UVA and rightly so.

[JasonEvans]

Just so we are clear, Tony Bennett is a 9-minute-meltdown/15-point-blown-lead away from having a Final Four under his belt and not having to answer these "why do you always flop in March?" questions. There is a degree of randomness to the Tourney that can lay bare the best laid plans. I am not going to bet against Virginia making a deep run this season.

[Troublemaker]

It has just been too many years in a row of "this is virgina's year", or "this team is better than last year's" with the same post-season results. Call me a scorned lover, I've just been burned too many times on my bracket. When I started betting against UVA in the tournament, I started having more success. And pie. (Thanks Richard Jackson!)

I believe Richard offered the same bet again this season with no takers, so when he gets around to reading your new offer, he'll be excited to go "double or nothing" with you.



Just saying if it's not talent (anymore), and it's not coaching, then what is it? Bad luck? Bad bracket(s)?

Bad luck in a small sample, I would say. I think 10 years from now, we won't be talking about UVA's struggles in the NCAA tournament.

[Matches]

Virginia was missing likely NBA lottery pick DeAndre Hunter when they lost to UMBC last year so maybe injuries could be an answer?

I'd offer style of play too. If they get down big in an elimination game, it's hard for their deliberate style of play to get them back in the game (see 20 point blowout to UMBC last year). Further, they (like anyone really) are very uncomfortable when taken out of their system or when a team gets hot (see Cuse game in 2016 elite eight when Virginia was up 15 with 9 minutes left and lost with a trip to the final four on the line).

If a team gets hot from 3, anyone can be beaten including Virginia.

Time will tell if Virginia can get to a final four or further this year. The NCAAT is simply a different animal. Their success in the toughest league in the nation (24-2 in last 26 ACC regular season games plus won the 2018 ACC Tournament title) tells me they are legitimate. Only a matter of time until it clicks in the NCAAT in my opinion.

The knock on UVa's system, aside from being boring, is that it disguises a lack of talent. Thus, the theory goes, they will struggle against top teams in the NCAAT because they get out-talented. That's well and good and, I think, somewhat valid - but it doesn't explain UMBC. Even without Hunter, UVa had FAR superior talent. They just pooped the bed. No excuse for losing that game, and IMO they can't be taken seriously unless and until they get to a Final 4.

The thing that bugs me is that UVa doesn't really have a talent gap anymore. They've got several future NBA players on that roster - but they're still playing the same boring system. It feels like four corners to me all over again - yea they're not breaking any rules, yea it works pretty well for them - but gross, who wants to watch that?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

The knock on UVa's system, aside from being boring, is that it disguises a lack of talent. Thus, the theory goes, they will struggle against top teams in the NCAAT because they get out-talented. That's well and good and, I think, somewhat valid - but it doesn't explain UMBC. Even without Hunter, UVa had FAR superior talent. They just pooped the bed. No excuse for losing that game, and IMO they can't be taken seriously unless and until they get to a Final 4.

The thing that bugs me is that UVa doesn't really have a talent gap anymore. They've got several future NBA players on that roster - but they're still playing the same boring system. It feels like four corners to me all over again - yea they're not breaking any rules, yea it works pretty well for them - but gross, who wants to watch that?

I love watching UVa. Until this year, I was wildly jealous of their ability to field a defense. But, I also enjoy a good 10-7 football game.

If Bennett's style masks a talent gap, why on earth would he not continue to use the same system when his talent catches up to top tier programs?

[left_hook_lacey]

I love watching UVa. Until this year, I was wildly jealous of their ability to field a defense. But, I also enjoy a good 10-7 football game.

If Bennett's style masks a talent gap, why on earth would he not continue to use the same system when his talent catches up to top tier programs?

I think that is a catch-22. How high is the ceiling regarding talent that he can pull in with the system he uses? It's not a great selling point to young recruits in the Steph Curry and KD era.

But say that it is. Say Bennett lands a top 3 recruiting class in the coming years. He has a 5-star PG, SG, SF on the roster that were scoring machines in high school. How long before people get restless and start complaining that UVA isn't playing an uptempo, high possession, entertaining game like RJ and Zion?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think that is a catch-22. How high is the ceiling regarding talent that he can pull in with the system he uses? It's not a great selling point to young recruits in the Steph Curry and KD era.

But say that it is. Say Bennett lands a top 3 recruiting class in the coming years. He has a 5-star PG, SG, SF on the roster that were scoring machines in high school. How long before people get restless and start complaining that UVA isn't playing an uptempo, high possession, entertaining game like RJ and Zion?

If they are reaching Final Fours, winning ACC banners, and posting great records? Who cares?

I mean, did people kvetch about the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team powered by defense? Or the Pistons of the Bad Boy era?

(admittedly those are stretches, but you get the point... Winning staunches whining)

[robed deity]

My only question is, if you have great talent, wouldn't you want to maximize possessions?

[Matches]

If they are reaching Final Fours, winning ACC banners, and posting great records? Who cares?

I mean, did people kvetch about the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team powered by defense? Or the Pistons of the Bad Boy era?

(admittedly those are stretches, but you get the point... Winning staunches whining)

I hated the Pistons. :)

UNC did all three of those things with Four Corners, too, but it drained the fun from the game to such an extent that they actually changed the rules to get rid of it. Fun is in the eye of the beholder, of course - if you like watching UVa that's entirely your prerogative. I think it's dull, though, and given that UVa now has enough talent to compete straight-up with pretty much anyone, I wish they would.

[left_hook_lacey]

If they are reaching Final Fours, winning ACC banners, and posting great records? Who cares?

I mean, did people kvetch about the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team powered by defense? Or the Pistons of the Bad Boy era?

(admittedly those are stretches, but you get the point... Winning staunches whining)

True. I would assume the UVA purists wouldn't care how they get there, so long as they do.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is it would be a hard sell to get, and keep, 5 star talent with that system.

He's almost better off not getting top level talent. He gets away with tournament disappointment for now because of regular season success. If he lands top tier talent, and still continues to whiff in the tournament, the villagers will be at the gate a lot quicker.

[PackMan97]

Maybe. I obviously don't follow them as closely as you do. My sense is that when State gets into a close one, they can't handle the moment and just start jacking.

...

That is my historical perception of the bar that NC State has struggled to clear to elevate back into the upper echelon of college hoops. And it's my perception to this day - although, objectively, Keatts is having a nice start. Didn't Gottfried have a nice start though, too?


I think it's your sample size. State doesn't have that "killer instinct" by any means...and a lot of the games you mentioned are ones where we had to come from behind against experienced teams and didn't quite get over the hump.

Gottfried.../sigh. Please don't mention his name.

[CameronBlue]

If it's not talent then what is it? Can't be coaching, Tony Bennet apparently invented defense if you listen to some pundits and admirers on DBR. 😂




I won't negative sporkz you for the shot but I may send my grandkids over to egg your house.
(Assuming my actress daughter gives up on her career, gets married and has kids.) I just need the address thanks.

[W&LHoo]

True. I would assume the UVA purists wouldn't care how they get there, so long as they do.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is it would be a hard sell to get, and keep, 5 star talent with that system.

He's almost better off not getting top level talent. He gets away with tournament disappointment for now because of regular season success. If he lands top tier talent, and still continues to whiff in the tournament, the villagers will be at the gate a lot quicker.

I hear the criticism, but honestly, the system HAS changed on both ends of the floor. On defense the team is much more active and with the addition of Clark, we even put pressure on the ball across the entire floor. The team is also changing when and how we switch, double, and help. It looks similar because they're still packing the paint and hedging hard, but even there this is a (somewhat) different defensive look than we've had in years past. Might be the kinds of differences only a homer would notice, but I'm absolutely a UVA diehard, so I'll split hairs all day.

Additionally, some of the offensive criticism strikes me as hangover gripes about prior years' teams. UVA has been scoring in the 70s and 80s this year - we struggled against a good NCSt team in their gym and against Duke in Cameron, but we've mostly been blowing teams out: scoring at a good clip, and doing so right up until Bennett clears the bench. The team is scoring fast and at all levels, with exciting dunks and alley-oops, (generally) hot three point shooting, and all three upperclassmen guards driving the lane and scoring or making a pass for an assist.

As for post-season success, the ACCT is also a single elimination tournament and we've been doing very well. The NCAAs are a high variability environment and we're working from a small sample size. If UVA keeps knocking on the door, it'll open.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

True. I would assume the UVA purists wouldn't care how they get there, so long as they do.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is it would be a hard sell to get, and keep, 5 star talent with that system.

He's almost better off not getting top level talent. He gets away with tournament disappointment for now because of regular season success. If he lands top tier talent, and still continues to whiff in the tournament, the villagers will be at the gate a lot quicker.

Well, we are "getting" 5 star talent, but we sure aren't "keeping" it.

Having said all that, I'm willing to bet that regardless of the records between now and March, 95% of basketball fans would rather watch Duke and Zion play than UVA.

Certainly "appeal" plays a role. I suspect apropos of no data that this Duke team is the most fun to watch for non-Duke fans since... 1999? 1992?

[MChambers]

I hear the criticism, but honestly, the system HAS changed on both ends of the floor. On defense the team is much more active and with the addition of Clark, we even put pressure on the ball across the entire floor. The team is also changing when and how we switch, double, and help. It looks similar because they're still packing the paint and hedging hard, but even there this is a (somewhat) different defensive look than we've had in years past. Might be the kinds of differences only a homer would notice, but I'm absolutely a UVA diehard, so I'll split hairs all day.

Additionally, some of the offensive criticism strikes me as hangover gripes about prior years' teams. UVA has been scoring in the 70s and 80s this year - we struggled against a good NCSt team in their gym and against Duke in Cameron, but we've mostly been blowing teams out: scoring at a good clip, and doing so right up until Bennett clears the bench. The team is scoring fast and at all levels, with exciting dunks and alley-oops, (generally) hot three point shooting, and all three upperclassmen guards driving the lane and scoring or making a pass for an assist.

As for post-season success, the ACCT is also a single elimination tournament and we've been doing very well. The NCAAs are a high variability environment and we're working from a small sample size. If UVA keeps knocking on the door, it'll open.

I’ll give you the defensive changes or tweaks, but UVa is still last in the entire nation in tempo, so the offense isn’t going all that quickly.

[royalblue]

I still don't believe in VA. I made a pie bet last year that they wouldn't make it to the elite eight and I'm willing to make it again if anyone is interested.

Virginia is good, don't get me wrong. But they are a gimmick, smoke and mirrors team. They are the epitome of a coach using a system to get the absolute most out of his team and players. But when the bright lights come on, talent wins out eventually.

After more thought I’m absolutely willing to take the bet that UVA makes it to at least the elite eight

[CameronDuke]

The knock on UVa's system, aside from being boring, is that it disguises a lack of talent. Thus, the theory goes, they will struggle against top teams in the NCAAT because they get out-talented. That's well and good and, I think, somewhat valid - but it doesn't explain UMBC. Even without Hunter, UVa had FAR superior talent. They just pooped the bed. No excuse for losing that game, and IMO they can't be taken seriously unless and until they get to a Final 4.

The thing that bugs me is that UVa doesn't really have a talent gap anymore. They've got several future NBA players on that roster - but they're still playing the same boring system. It feels like four corners to me all over again - yea they're not breaking any rules, yea it works pretty well for them - but gross, who wants to watch that?

I don't buy the theory that they get out talented. Ty Jerome and DeAndre Hunter both will likely get drafted this June if they enter the NBA Draft. Kyle Guy is a poor man's JJ Redick. He can flat out rip it from deep. Jay Huff is a blossoming stud and NBA prospect. The ACC has some of the most talented teams in the country and Virginia is 24-2 in their last 26 games in the conference with an ACC Tournament title to show. They've flat out dominated, I mean absolutely owned the ACC the last two years. It's fair to criticize Bennett's lack of NCAA success. But when he finally gets to a final four, which he will eventually, and wins it all, it won't be that instantaeous moment that I call Virginia a legitimate program or have respect for their abilities. That is a program they have there.

Like, Shaka Smart and Loyola-Chicago's coach have made the final four. Are they better coaches than Tony Bennett? Heck no.

[Wahoo2000]

I’ll give you the defensive changes or tweaks, but UVa is still last in the entire nation in tempo, so the offense isn’t going all that quickly.

And "quick" = "entertaining"?

I think quality makes for entertaining basketball. This stuff always gets played up (I guess naturally) after a game where we play poorly. I don't recall ANYONE who actually watched more than 30 seconds of our games where we had an off. eff. of around 1.1 or better say it was "ugly" (which is pretty much all but 2-3 game this year). Just like any team in the nation, we occasionally have really awful shooting nights. NCSU was one, Wisconsin was one. The VAST majority of our games are cleanly played, with few turnovers, and high shooting and assist percentages. I don't recall anyone saying the Duke/UVA game was "ugly" or the vast majority of our contests this year.

Would you really rather watch a UNC/KY game where the teams combine to shoot 40% from the field with 36 turnovers that ends 80-72 over a UVA-Maryland game that the teams shoot about 48% from the field with 16 combined turnovers and ends 76-71? In other words, is a sloppy game with 80 possessions more pleasing to watch than a well executed game with 60 possessions? If so, then I guess we just value different things as basketball fans (and I felt this way loooong before Bennett).

I'd say this to anybody - when UVA is executing well on the offensive end, our games ARE fun to watch. When we're not, I'll be the first to admit that it's ugly basketball, especially since we usually "double down" on defensive effort when our offense is off and it leads to BOTH teams struggling.

[Wahoo2000]

I don't buy the theory that they get out talented. Ty Jerome and DeAndre Hunter both will likely get drafted this June if they enter the NBA Draft. Kyle Guy is a poor man's JJ Redick. He can flat out rip it from deep. Jay Huff is a blossoming stud and NBA prospect. The ACC has some of the most talented teams in the country and Virginia is 24-2 in their last 26 games in the conference with an ACC Tournament title to show. They've flat out dominated, I mean absolutely owned the ACC the last two years. It's fair to criticize Bennett's lack of NCAA success. But when he finally gets to a final four, which he will eventually, and wins it all, it won't be that instantaeous moment that I call Virginia a legitimate program or have respect for their abilities. That is a program they have there.

Like, Shaka Smart and Loyola-Chicago's coach have made the final four. Are they better coaches than Tony Bennett? Heck no.

The tournament thing is just a HUGE, 100% mental hurdle at this point. People can point to the style all they want, but the truth of Bennett's tournament "failures" is this - we were beaten by a better team (or bad matchup, however you want to state it) vs MSU twice, and Florida once. Syracuse and (to a much larger extent) UMBC were flat out choke jobs. Things started going the wrong way in those games and the guys just fell apart. Does it mean that we'll ALWAYS fall apart? Possible, but I doubt it. We just have to keep knocking. It really sucks that we couldn't hold on vs Cuse a couple of years ago and it wouldn't be a mental hurdle of ANY kind now. But it is what it is.

I'm just happy that we've come far enough as a program that NOBODY talks about Sean Miller being THE coach that can't get to the FF anymore. :-)

[CameronDuke]

The tournament thing is just a HUGE, 100% mental hurdle at this point. People can point to the style all they want, but the truth of Bennett's tournament "failures" is this - we were beaten by a better team (or bad matchup, however you want to state it) vs MSU twice, and Florida once. Syracuse and (to a much larger extent) UMBC were flat out choke jobs. Things started going the wrong way in those games and the guys just fell apart. Does it mean that we'll ALWAYS fall apart? Possible, but I doubt it. We just have to keep knocking. It really sucks that we couldn't hold on vs Cuse a couple of years ago and it wouldn't be a mental hurdle of ANY kind now. But it is what it is.

I'm just happy that we've come far enough as a program that NOBODY talks about Sean Miller being THE coach that can't get to the FF anymore. :-)

LOL. The two Michigan State losses if I remember correctly were tough, gritty, grind it out games where Virginia just fell short a bit at the end by tough defensive Tom Izzo teams. The Cuse loss was weird. One of Virginia's better teams with Brogdon Gill and Perrantes. Look, Richardson for Cuse couldn't miss down the stretch. Did Virginia get rattled and did Brogdon make some bad plays down the stretch? Absolutely. But that was a legitimate squad. Same with last year. Did UMBC get hot and rattle Virginia? Yes. It happens. Again, like you said, more mental now than Virginia not being legitimately talented. A lot of things have to go right for teams to make long NCAAT runs. It just hasn't happened for Tony Bennett yet. Ask any coach in the ACC - I can virtually guarantee you they'd say he's the real deal. And a fine man who mentors his kids, too.

[NSDukeFan]

I love watching UVa. Until this year, I was wildly jealous of their ability to field a defense. But, I also enjoy a good 10-7 football game.

If Bennett's style masks a talent gap, why on earth would he not continue to use the same system when his talent catches up to top tier programs?
I like teams that are smart offensively and defensively and UVa definitely qualifies. I dislike turnovers and sloppy play. Everyone has their own preferences.

If they are reaching Final Fours, winning ACC banners, and posting great records? Who cares?

I mean, did people kvetch about the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl team powered by defense? Or the Pistons of the Bad Boy era?

(admittedly those are stretches, but you get the point... Winning staunches whining)
I believe winning trumps style. All the top players didn’t flock to VMI and Loyola Marymount when they led the country in scoring. Players would rather play for a winner. Especially if that winning program also sends players to the NBA.

My only question is, if you have great talent, wouldn't you want to maximize possessions?
That’s an interesting point that could be an issue in a one and done format where the difference in a few possessions has a greater impact and luck could become more of an issue.

True. I would assume the UVA purists wouldn't care how they get there, so long as they do.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is it would be a hard sell to get, and keep, 5 star talent with that system.

He's almost better off not getting top level talent. He gets away with tournament disappointment for now because of regular season success. If he lands top tier talent, and still continues to whiff in the tournament, the villagers will be at the gate a lot quicker.
I can’t imagine any villagers going to any gates with the type of success he has had, even if he doesn’t advance to the Final Four in the next few years (I expect a regional championship soon for them). Are UVa fans really going to complain about all those ACC championships and say Bennett isn’t doing more? Isn’t this the greatest run the program has ever had?

I hear the criticism, but honestly, the system HAS changed on both ends of the floor. On defense the team is much more active and with the addition of Clark, we even put pressure on the ball across the entire floor. The team is also changing when and how we switch, double, and help. It looks similar because they're still packing the paint and hedging hard, but even there this is a (somewhat) different defensive look than we've had in years past. Might be the kinds of differences only a homer would notice, but I'm absolutely a UVA diehard, so I'll split hairs all day.

Additionally, some of the offensive criticism strikes me as hangover gripes about prior years' teams. UVA has been scoring in the 70s and 80s this year - we struggled against a good NCSt team in their gym and against Duke in Cameron, but we've mostly been blowing teams out: scoring at a good clip, and doing so right up until Bennett clears the bench. The team is scoring fast and at all levels, with exciting dunks and alley-oops, (generally) hot three point shooting, and all three upperclassmen guards driving the lane and scoring or making a pass for an assist.

As for post-season success, the ACCT is also a single elimination tournament and we've been doing very well. The NCAAs are a high variability environment and we're working from a small sample size. If UVA keeps knocking on the door, it'll open.
With UVa having such an efficient offense and scoring more, it’s getting even harder to make the style complaint. I agree completely that the regional championship door will likely open soon.

And "quick" = "entertaining"?

I think quality makes for entertaining basketball. This stuff always gets played up (I guess naturally) after a game where we play poorly. I don't recall ANYONE who actually watched more than 30 seconds of our games where we had an off. eff. of around 1.1 or better say it was "ugly" (which is pretty much all but 2-3 game this year). Just like any team in the nation, we occasionally have really awful shooting nights. NCSU was one, Wisconsin was one. The VAST majority of our games are cleanly played, with few turnovers, and high shooting and assist percentages. I don't recall anyone saying the Duke/UVA game was "ugly" or the vast majority of our contests this year.

Would you really rather watch a UNC/KY game where the teams combine to shoot 40% from the field with 36 turnovers that ends 80-72 over a UVA-Maryland game that the teams shoot about 48% from the field with 16 combined turnovers and ends 76-71? In other words, is a sloppy game with 80 possessions more pleasing to watch than a well executed game with 60 possessions? If so, then I guess we just value different things as basketball fans (and I felt this way loooong before Bennett).

I'd say this to anybody - when UVA is executing well on the offensive end, our games ARE fun to watch. When we're not, I'll be the first to admit that it's ugly basketball, especially since we usually "double down" on defensive effort when our offense is off and it leads to BOTH teams struggling.
I’m not a fan of sloppy play, so I would agree that UVa is fun to watch because of how smart they play and how good they are.

LOL. The two Michigan State losses if I remember correctly were tough, gritty, grind it out games where Virginia just fell short a bit at the end by tough defensive Tom Izzo teams. The Cuse loss was weird. One of Virginia's better teams with Brogdon Gill and Perrantes. Look, Richardson for Cuse couldn't miss down the stretch. Did Virginia get rattled and did Brogdon make some bad plays down the stretch? Absolutely. But that was a legitimate squad. Same with last year. Did UMBC get hot and rattle Virginia? Yes. It happens. Again, like you said, more mental now than Virginia not being legitimately talented. A lot of things have to go right for teams to make long NCAAT runs. It just hasn't happened for Tony Bennett yet. Ask any coach in the ACC - I can virtually guarantee you they'd say he's the real deal. And a fine man who mentors his kids, too.
NCAAT success is tough to achieve in the one and done format, but if you keep having good teams, it comes more regularly.

[dukelifer]

Just so we are clear, Tony Bennett is a 9-minute-meltdown/15-point-blown-lead away from having a Final Four under his belt and not having to answer these "why do you always flop in March?" questions. There is a degree of randomness to the Tourney that can lay bare the best laid plans. I am not going to bet against Virginia making a deep run this season.

This UVA team has talent but I am still not convinced they can handle the top group of teams in the NCAA. I have not been impressed with the bulk of the ACC this season. Duke, UNC and UVA seem to be at another level. We will see how UVA manages UNC. I bet they lose given the short turnaround after Duke. Va Tech and Louisville will be interesting but I suspect UVA takes care of business in close games. But in the tourney they will be vulnerable to the top group of teams with good guards. UVA may get to the FF but they will be tested in a big way.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

. We will see how UVA manages UNC. I bet they lose given the short turnaround after Duke. .

This is the Swofford scheduling BS.....this kind of back to back should NEVER happens, and every time it does, it helps the Cheats. Why Duke doesn't put a stop to this.....I don't know....and it happens every year.

[JasonEvans]

This is the Swofford scheduling BS....this kind of back to back should NEVER happens, and every time it does, it helps the Cheats. Why Duke doesn't put a stop to this....I don't know...and it happens every year.

Notre Dame just played UVa and Duke back-to-back with a short turnaround (Saturday-Monday). I'd say that is pretty brutal for what was expected to be a middle-of-the-pack team. I'm not a big fan of the conspiracy theory when it comes to Carolina's schedule or any schedule. The conference schedule is just too complicated for someone to be intentionally manipulating it to favor one team.

If we consider Duke, UVA, and UNC to be the "big three" in the ACC this season (all three were widely picked to be among the top 5-7 teams in the land in the preseason), we can look for times teams have to play them back-to-back to see when it happens.


Notre Dame - UVA then Duke (2 days apart)
Virginia - Duke then UNC (2 days apart)
Syracuse - Duke then UNC (3 days apart)
Ga Tech - Duke then UNC (3 days apart)

It does sorta look like those double-ups favor the Heels... though I am sure that is just random.

-Jason "there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... is there?" Evans

[JasonEvans]

As I happened to be looking at schedules, I noticed the brutally unfair schedule that Clemson has faced thus far. They opened with games @Duke and @Syr (remember that the Orangemen were a preseason top 15 team). They then had their first home game... Virginia. After that, a break as they got to play Ga Tech before heading on the road again for FSU and NC State. So, in their first 6 games they played 5 teams that have been ranked in the top 15 at some point this season. Ouch! No wonder Clemson started 1-5 in the conference race.

Of course, things get easier. The Tigers beat Pitt and now have Wake, Ga Tech, and Miami as well as a home date with Va Tech in their next 4. It is not at all unreasonable to look at what Clemson has left and project them to get to 8-8 in the league... which would likely put them very much in the NCAA tourney conversation.

According to the T-rank page for the ACC (http://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=ACC), Clemson's remaining schedule is the 13th toughest in the ACC (NC St and FSU are #14 and #15, look for them to rise in the standings). Conversely, Louisville, Syracuse, and UNC have the three toughest remaining schedules. I know this weekend marks the mid-point of the ACC schedule and it would be easy to see some teams as locks for high seeds and write others off, but that may be a bit premature given the way the schedule has fallen for some clubs.

-Jason "ok, enough of the schedule deep dives... get a life, Jason!" Evans

[MChambers]

And "quick" = "entertaining"?

I think quality makes for entertaining basketball. This stuff always gets played up (I guess naturally) after a game where we play poorly. I don't recall ANYONE who actually watched more than 30 seconds of our games where we had an off. eff. of around 1.1 or better say it was "ugly" (which is pretty much all but 2-3 game this year). Just like any team in the nation, we occasionally have really awful shooting nights. NCSU was one, Wisconsin was one. The VAST majority of our games are cleanly played, with few turnovers, and high shooting and assist percentages. I don't recall anyone saying the Duke/UVA game was "ugly" or the vast majority of our contests this year.

Would you really rather watch a UNC/KY game where the teams combine to shoot 40% from the field with 36 turnovers that ends 80-72 over a UVA-Maryland game that the teams shoot about 48% from the field with 16 combined turnovers and ends 76-71? In other words, is a sloppy game with 80 possessions more pleasing to watch than a well executed game with 60 possessions? If so, then I guess we just value different things as basketball fans (and I felt this way loooong before Bennett).

I'd say this to anybody - when UVA is executing well on the offensive end, our games ARE fun to watch. When we're not, I'll be the first to admit that it's ugly basketball, especially since we usually "double down" on defensive effort when our offense is off and it leads to BOTH teams struggling.

No, I was responding to a post that said that UVa's offense was quicker this year.

Yes, you can be entertaining and slow, no doubt, but you can be a lot more entertaining if you're quick when the opportunity is there. That's a large part of why this Duke team gets so much attention.

[jhmoss1812]

No, I was responding to a post that said that UVa's offense was quicker this year.

Yes, you can be entertaining and slow, no doubt, but you can be a lot more entertaining if you're quick when the opportunity is there. That's a large part of why this Duke team gets so much attention.

It is incredibly difficult to be both fast and efficient. Only 3 of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency are also in the top 100 in tempo - Duke (16), Gonzaga (69), and Iowa (84). Kentucky is 214th in tempo and they use the OAD model. Basically, there is one team in the country that can play at a quick tempo and still be incredibly efficient - it just happens to be the team with multiple lottery picks and the GCOAT. The majority of teams can't recruit the way Duke does. Most coaches want efficient teams. Some choose to play fast and be less efficient. Some choose to slow it down and be incredibly efficient. As a UVA fan, it doesn't really bother me when people say we're boring to watch or that they hate our style of play. They wouldn't be talking about us at all if we weren't successful.

[OldPhiKap]

As a UVA fan, it doesn't really bother me when people say we're boring to watch or that they hate our style of play. They wouldn't be talking about us at all if we weren't successful.

Yup. The difference between a loved Tony Bennett and a grumbled-at Herb Sendek is about ten wins a season.

[CDu]

It is incredibly difficult to be both fast and efficient. Only 3 of the top 10 teams in offensive efficiency are also in the top 100 in tempo - Duke (16), Gonzaga (69), and Iowa (84). Kentucky is 214th in tempo and they use the OAD model. Basically, there is one team in the country that can play at a quick tempo and still be incredibly efficient - it just happens to be the team with multiple lottery picks and the GCOAT. The majority of teams can't recruit the way Duke does. Most coaches want efficient teams. Some choose to play fast and be less efficient. Some choose to slow it down and be incredibly efficient. As a UVA fan, it doesn't really bother me when people say we're boring to watch or that they hate our style of play. They wouldn't be talking about us at all if we weren't successful.

I would actually argue that it is harder to be efficient at a slow pace. Only 4 of the top-10 teams in offensive efficiency are outside the top 130 in tempo. If I were to run a regression of efficiency on tempo, I would expect a positive correlation.

Playing fast usually coincides with more fast breaks, and fast breaks are typically more efficient than half-court possessions.

That UVa is able to be efficient in spite of playing slow is impressive.

[Wahoo2000]

I would actually argue that it is harder to be efficient at a slow pace. Only 4 of the top-10 teams in offensive efficiency are outside the top 130 in tempo. If I were to run a regression of efficiency on tempo, I would expect a positive correlation.

Playing fast usually coincides with more fast breaks, and fast breaks are typically more efficient than half-court possessions.

That UVa is able to be efficient in spite of playing slow is impressive.

I would actually guess that there's not much correlation. Efficiency is largely determined by the "quality" of shot you get. A high tempo team may be getting lots of fast-break, quality chances. They may also just be running and chucking. Conversely, a slow tempo team may be throwing up bricks at the end of the shot clock all the time, or they may be waiting and looking for the best possible shot.

It would be interesting for somebody to chart tempo vs off eff (and tempo vs def eff too)...... I just know *I'M* too lazy to do it! lol

[gofurman]

As I happened to be looking at schedules, I noticed the brutally unfair schedule that Clemson has faced thus far. They opened with games @Duke and @Syr (remember that the Orangemen were a preseason top 15 team). They then had their first home game... Virginia. After that, a break as they got to play Ga Tech before heading on the road again for FSU and NC State. So, in their first 6 games they played 5 teams that have been ranked in the top 15 at some point this season. Ouch! No wonder Clemson started 1-5 in the conference race.

Of course, things get easier. The Tigers beat Pitt and now have Wake, Ga Tech, and Miami as well as a home date with Va Tech in their next 4. It is not at all unreasonable to look at what Clemson has left and project them to get to 8-8 in the league... which would likely put them very much in the NCAA tourney conversation.

According to the T-rank page for the ACC (http://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=ACC), Clemson's remaining schedule is the 13th toughest in the ACC (NC St and FSU are #14 and #15, look for them to rise in the standings). Conversely, Louisville, Syracuse, and UNC have the three toughest remaining schedules. I know this weekend marks the mid-point of the ACC schedule and it would be easy to see some teams as locks for high seeds and write others off, but that may be a bit premature given the way the schedule has fallen for some clubs.

-Jason "ok, enough of the schedule deep dives... get a life, Jason!" Evans

Agree. Go Clemson It’s not totally out of pic for them to go 9-9 or so... in ACC. that would merit NCAA consideration ... like you said they started w Duke at Syracuse and UVA. Many top 25 teams would have started 0-3 w that.

[CDu]

I would actually guess that there's not much correlation. Efficiency is largely determined by the "quality" of shot you get. A high tempo team may be getting lots of fast-break, quality chances. They may also just be running and chucking. Conversely, a slow tempo team may be throwing up bricks at the end of the shot clock all the time, or they may be waiting and looking for the best possible shot.

It would be interesting for somebody to chart tempo vs off eff (and tempo vs def eff too)... I just know *I'M* too lazy to do it! lol

I just ran a regression of OEff on tempo and the coefficient was 0.147. So for a one-unit increase in pace, we would expect a 0.147 increase in efficiency. So, a small but positive effect. And I think this makes sense: in general, we know that fast-break possessions are more efficient than half-court possessions. And in general, a faster pace will tend to be a result of more fast-break possessions. So, in general, it's easier to be more efficient at a higher tempo than at a lower tempo, because you are likely getting a higher proportion of your possessions from more-efficient fast break chances.

Now, that's not a hard and fast rule obviously, nor is it a huge effect. And there is plenty of noise (plenty of teams that play fast and poorly, plenty that play slow and well). But the data do seem to suggest that teams that play faster tend to be more efficient. The data most certainly don't suggest at any level that playing slower leads to better efficiency.

Which is, of course, a compliment to Bennett. To be uber-efficient despite playing the slowest pace in college bball is really impressive. He's bucking the trend, and his UVa team is way off in the upper left on a scatter plot with efficiency as the Y-axis and tempo as the X-axis.

[BandAlum83]

I just ran a regression of OEff on tempo and the coefficient was 0.147. So for a one-unit increase in pace, we would expect a 0.147 increase in efficiency. So, a small but positive effect. And I think this makes sense: in general, we know that fast-break possessions are more efficient than half-court possessions. And in general, a faster pace will tend to be a result of more fast-break possessions. So, in general, it's easier to be more efficient at a higher tempo than at a lower tempo, because you are likely getting a higher proportion of your possessions from more-efficient fast break chances.

Now, that's not a hard and fast rule obviously, nor is it a huge effect. And there is plenty of noise (plenty of teams that play fast and poorly, plenty that play slow and well). But the data do seem to suggest that teams that play faster tend to be more efficient. The data most certainly don't suggest at any level that playing slower leads to better efficiency.

Which is, of course, a compliment to Bennett. To be uber-efficient despite playing the slowest pace in college bball is really impressive. He's bucking the trend, and his UVa team is way off in the upper left on a scatter plot with efficiency as the Y-axis and tempo as the X-axis.

When you have RJ, Zion and Tre on your team.

I have seen some pretty poor fast break finishing during some other games I have watched this year. Sure, it's anecdotal, but when the announcers talk about Duke having elite finishers, I believe it more and more.

It's gotta be no-so-easy to finish at the rim running full speed with some really big guys chasing you down the court.

[CDu]

When you have RJ, Zion and Tre on your team.

I have seen some pretty poor fast break finishing during some other games I have watched this year. Sure, it's anecdotal, but when the announcers talk about Duke having elite finishers, I believe it more and more.

It's gotta be no-so-easy to finish at the rim running full speed with some really big guys chasing you down the court.

Duke is certainly better in transition than most if not all. But you don’t have to have Barrett/Williamson/Jones to find your fast-break efficiency be better than your half-court efficiency. I would venture it is close to universally true, and am very short that it is generally true even if not universally so.

People tend to shoot better percentages at the rim than away from it, and people tend to shoot better percentages when there aren’t defenses in front of you. And both happen more frequently in fast breaks than in half-court.

[tbyers11]

I would actually guess that there's not much correlation. Efficiency is largely determined by the "quality" of shot you get. A high tempo team may be getting lots of fast-break, quality chances. They may also just be running and chucking. Conversely, a slow tempo team may be throwing up bricks at the end of the shot clock all the time, or they may be waiting and looking for the best possible shot.

It would be interesting for somebody to chart tempo vs off eff (and tempo vs def eff too)... I just know *I'M* too lazy to do it! lol

T-Rank to the rescue. Here is a link (http://barttorvik.com/team-maps.php?show=1&dots=1&tvalue=All&year=2019&sort=&t2value=None&conlimit=All&begin=20181101&end=20190501&top=0&quad=4&mingames=0&toprk=75&venue=All&type=All&xax=1&yax=26) to a graph of Adj OE to Adj tempo. I limited to the top 75 teams (in overall Adj EM I think) to make it less busy. The trendline is just barely in favor of OE increasing with tempo.

9005

Well that came out a lot smaller than I'd hoped. No time to fix it now. But follow the link and you can see it and play with it yourself

[CDu]

T-Rank to the rescue. Here is a link (http://barttorvik.com/team-maps.php?show=1&dots=1&tvalue=All&year=2019&sort=&t2value=None&conlimit=All&begin=20181101&end=20190501&top=0&quad=4&mingames=0&toprk=75&venue=All&type=All&xax=1&yax=26) to a graph of Adj OE to Adj tempo. I limited to the top 75 teams (in overall Adj EM I think) to make it less busy. The trendline is just barely in favor of OE increasing with tempo.

9005

Well that came out a lot smaller than I'd hoped. No time to fix it now. But follow the link and you can see it and play with it yourself

Yep, this is roughly the same trend as for all 353 using KenPom. I just didn’t know how to post my graph.

[wsb3]

Yup. The difference between a loved Tony Bennett and a grumbled-at Herb Sendek is about ten wins a season.

Very good OPK.
Must spread comments around...blah blah..😉

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Notre Dame just played UVa and Duke back-to-back with a short turnaround (Saturday-Monday). I'd say that is pretty brutal for what was expected to be a middle-of-the-pack team. I'm not a big fan of the conspiracy theory when it comes to Carolina's schedule or any schedule. The conference schedule is just too complicated for someone to be intentionally manipulating it to favor one team.

If we consider Duke, UVA, and UNC to be the "big three" in the ACC this season (all three were widely picked to be among the top 5-7 teams in the land in the preseason), we can look for times teams have to play them back-to-back to see when it happens.


Notre Dame - UVA then Duke (2 days apart)
Virginia - Duke then UNC (2 days apart)
Syracuse - Duke then UNC (3 days apart)
Ga Tech - Duke then UNC (3 days apart)

It does sorta look like those double-ups favor the Heels... though I am sure that is just random.

-Jason "there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... there is no conspiracy... is there?" Evans

Right....just random...just random indeed. The fact that UNC is always the beneficiary is no more suspicious than the NCAA's treatment of them / Mizzou. Ahem.

[UrinalCake]

I would think that efficiency is more closely correlated to three point percentage, free throw rate, and turnovers forced rather than tempo. Maybe the stats geeks could produce some more fancy chart thingies?

[CDu]

I would think that efficiency is more closely correlated to three point percentage, free throw rate, and turnovers forced rather than tempo. Maybe the stats geeks could produce some more fancy chart thingies?

Yes, the “four factors” are the most important of course. And much morsel than tempo. This was strictly a discussion of whether slower was better in terms of efficiency, not a statement about the relative correlation of tempo to efficiency as compared with other factors. My point in all of this analysis was just to show that slower isn’t better with regards to efficiency.

[Wahoo2000]

T-Rank to the rescue. Here is a link (http://barttorvik.com/team-maps.php?show=1&dots=1&tvalue=All&year=2019&sort=&t2value=None&conlimit=All&begin=20181101&end=20190501&top=0&quad=4&mingames=0&toprk=75&venue=All&type=All&xax=1&yax=26) to a graph of Adj OE to Adj tempo. I limited to the top 75 teams (in overall Adj EM I think) to make it less busy. The trendline is just barely in favor of OE increasing with tempo.

9005

Well that came out a lot smaller than I'd hoped. No time to fix it now. But follow the link and you can see it and play with it yourself

Yeah - there is definitely a correlation, though it's so mild I don't know that it makes any noticeable difference. In other words - I don't think an uptempo team will tend to be noticeably more efficient than a slower tempo team when watching, and that brings me back to my core point - I enjoy watching efficient offenses, regardless of pace.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Yeah - there is definitely a correlation, though it's so mild I don't know that it makes any noticeable difference. In other words - I don't think an uptempo team will tend to be noticeably more efficient than a slower tempo team when watching, and that brings me back to my core point - I enjoy watching efficient offenses, regardless of pace.

I would think the difference would be in the easy buckets an uptempo team would get...which of course are extremely efficient possessions. That said, a slower team can work for high percentage threes and some easy back door buckets as well. I would leans slightly to uptempo efficiency.

Now to the number crunchers, this is just a hunch. I did not run the data through the flux capacitor, a unilateral phase detractor, or the Rockwell Turbo Incabulator first. Just a hunch.

[CDu]

I would think the difference would be in the easy buckets an uptempo team would get...which of course are extremely efficient possessions. That said, a slower team can work for high percentage threes and some easy back door buckets as well. I would leans slightly to uptempo efficiency.

Now to the number crunchers, this is just a hunch. I did not run the data through the flux capacitor, a unilateral phase detractor, or the Rockwell Turbo Incabulator first. Just a hunch.

Yeah, this is what I said earlier in the thread, and ran the numbers to confirm.

[curtis325]

Does State really have 14 points at halftime?

[CDu]

Does State really have 14 points at halftime?

Amazingly, they are totally still in that game.

[PackMan97]

Does State really have 14 points at halftime?

Shooting like 19% for the half... And only down 6.

I guess I shouldn't talk so much trash about UVa's style of play.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Shooting like 19% for the half... And only down 6.

I guess I shouldn't talk so much trash about UVa's style of play.

Braxton Beverly.....historically bad.....0-11 from the field so far.

[arnie]

Braxton Beverly....historically bad....0-11 from the field so far.

Pack with 22 pts and just over 3 to play- down 25

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Pack with 22 pts and just over 3 to play- down 25

Please tell me we aren't NCSU's next game....after this debacle, they'll hit EVERYTHING next game out.

[jhmoss1812]

Shooting like 19% for the half... And only down 6.

I guess I shouldn't talk so much trash about UVa's style of play.

We at least win when we only score 24 points

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Does State really have 14 points at halftime?

And they may not equal that in the second half...

[unclsam1]

And they may not equal that in the second half...

24 points final.

[PackMan97]

We at least win when we only score 24 points

You win the internet today.

Being a state fan either builds character, or it drives you into depression.

[devildeac]

And, how badly does loovill soil themselves today?:mad:

[AGDukesky]

And, how badly does loovill soil themselves today?:mad:

Trying hard but UNC just isn’t that good. Boy Louisville is making some boneheaded plays though...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

24 points final.

So if memory serves, Duke's FB team score more in the third period of the Temple game than NCSU's basketball team scored all day today? Wow.

[AGDukesky]

So if memory serves, Duke's FB team score more in the third period of the Temple game than NCSU's basketball team scored all day today? Wow.

I think Duke had more than 24 points today at the second TV timeout

[devildeac]

So if memory serves, Duke's FB team score more in the third period of the Temple game than NCSU's basketball team scored all day today? Wow.

Zion scored more than the wolfpups did today. :eek:

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Zion scored more than the wolfpups did today. :eek:

in fairness, I was talking about comparisons with mortals...:cool:

[unclsam1]

So if memory serves, Duke's FB team score more in the third period of the Temple game than NCSU's basketball team scored all day today? Wow.

This point total for NC State though was double what they needed to edge out Duke 12-10 in the 1968 ACC tournament. Without a shot clock, Duke just let them dribble the clock away. Think it was 7-5 at halftime. Talk about a frustrating game to watch.

[roywhite]

Shaking my head about the Wolfpack's disastrous outing, at home no less.

Some of the numbers are unbelievable -- 9-54 from the field, including 2-28 from 3-point

The only good news -- with the Duke game opposite on another channel, not many people saw this meltdown.

[AGDukesky]

Louisville looks like garbage

[dukelifer]

Louisville looks like garbage

Yep. UNC game into this game focused. Louisville not using their athleticism.

[AGDukesky]

TV Teddy clearly got his instructions not to let UNC lose...

[dukelifer]

TV Teddy clearly got his instructions not to let UNC lose...

UNC is a very good team. They can win it all. And that makes me nervous.

[AGDukesky]

UNC is a very good team. They can win it all. And that makes me nervous.

I mean UNC has as much a chance as any top 15 team, but is not constructed like a typical Roy Williams contender and is clearly a step below the top 6-7 teams.

[AGDukesky]

And, how badly does loovill soil themselves today?:mad:

My apologies for ever doubting you

[WakeDevil]

I just got home and saw the score from Raleigh. Color me confused. Why were they playing a football game in February? Is it a makeup date due to the snow in December? It seems odd they would do that after the bowl game.

[unclsam1]

28-12 in total rebounds favoring UNC including 7-0 in offensive rebounds.

[gofurman]

Yep. UNC game into this game focused. Louisville not using their athleticism.

Louisville is getting whipped. At home. By a team they whipped at Dean Dome

Unc scaring me. They are improving w White at Pg. hope it’s just bad day at UL but unc lookssto be improving

[BandAlum83]

The NCSU result is just plain......disapponting.

I would really like for NCSU to be a legitimate contender each year, supplanting the dump.

Pack fans: What the hell is going on? The new coach showed so much promise last year.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Louisville is getting whipped. At home. By a team they whipped at Dean Dome

Unc scaring me. They are improving w White at Pg. hope it’s just bad day at UL but unc lookssto be improving

That was the easiest pick on today's betting card...I figured the Heels would rout them. (I didn't say I was happy about it.....)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This point total for NC State though was double what they needed to edge out Duke 12-10 in the 1968 ACC tournament. Without a shot clock, Duke just let them dribble the clock away. Think it was 7-5 at halftime. Talk about a frustrating game to watch.

A far superior Duke team......Mike Lewis et al if I recall (I was VERY young at the time...but already a Duke fan).

[gofurman]

That was the easiest pick on today's betting card...I figured the Heels would rout them. (I didn't say I was happy about it...)

*How many acc losses do you think UNC ends w? I could see them tying us at 14-4 or so.

We have 2 games w UNC. And At uva. At Syracuse. we go to Louisville too.
Unc has UVA at chapel hil. Two Vs us. They have easier games left

[Wahoo2000]

Woof. Another ugly, UGLY game by UVA vs Miami on the back of a similarly "out of sorts" performance earlier this week vs the Wolfpack. To be fair, Bennett sat Ty Jerome with a bad back (I don't think it's anything major, mostly precautionary with a weak opponent and a full week off before Duke to try and get him completely healthy) and Clark in a backup role was turning the ball over like crazy. Another bad shooting night for Kyle Guy too, who is now 3-13 from 3 in the last 2 games.

The break seems to be coming at a good time, because if we play like this in our next game we'll get "blowed out" (to steal a phrase from Emmitt Smith).

[devildeac]

Louisville looks like garbage

Wait until 2/12 at 900 PM. :mad::mad:

[devildeac]

Louisville looks like garbage


My apologies for ever doubting you

No apology needed. As I posted/responded above to one of your posts, wait until 2/12 about 900 PM. :mad::mad:

[devildeac]

Woof. Another ugly, UGLY game by UVA vs Miami on the back of a similarly "out of sorts" performance earlier this week vs the Wolfpack. To be fair, Bennett sat Ty Jerome with a bad back (I don't think it's anything major, mostly precautionary with a weak opponent and a full week off before Duke to try and get him completely healthy) and Clark in a backup role was turning the ball over like crazy. Another bad shooting night for Kyle Guy too, who is now 3-13 from 3 in the last 2 games.

The break seems to be coming at a good time, because if we play like this in our next game we'll get "blowed out" (to steal a phrase from Emmitt Smith).

Clearly, UVa nation needs a vigil...

:rolleyes:

[PackMan97]

Shaking my head about the Wolfpack's disastrous outing, at home no less.

All I can say is the entire team had better have had the flu and/or mono.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

All I can say is the entire team had better have had the flu and/or mono.

Ya know, a widespread flu would go a long way towards explaining the unexplainable.

[dukelifer]

I mean UNC has as much a chance as any top 15 team, but is not constructed like a typical Roy Williams contender and is clearly a step below the top 6-7 teams.

Not any top 15 team- Roy is one of the most successful coaches there is in the tourney. This does not look like a typical UNC team but if Little figures it out- it could change in an instant.

[ElliottHoo]

All I can say is the entire team had better have had the flu and/or mono.

I thought that after the NCSU game, but vs Miami it didn't look that way. Energy, but just out of sorts. Could be that Jerome was out and it sometimes feels like he's the only one who knows how to run offensive plays. More directly, he's the emotional leader of the team and with him out I felt everyone was looking around to see who was in charge. Also, I think its possible the team was caught looking ahead to Duke.

Bennett is famous for refusing to even acknowledge any games beyond the very next one on the schedule (and that twitter story is absolutely hilarious. About once/year Mrs Bennett comes out with an impressively funny tweet. Last year, I think it was, she tweeted asking "if anyone knew a handyman who could fix basketball backboards, because the one in their backyard got shattered". Like... what? Turned out Justin Anderson was back in town visiting), but it would be astounding if the players weren't at least looking ahead to the game just a little, especially with their emotional leader on the sidelines.

Nice thrashing of St Johns.

[wsb3]

Wake lit it up with 37 team points

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Wake lit it up with 37 team points

Man, if Wake and State had played each other this weekend, it would've set the game back 50 years.

[devildeac]

Wake lit it up with 37 team points

Does Danny survive the season :eek:?

Hell, their football team scored more than that in a game late last season.

(Oops, too soon :mad:.)

[devildeac]

Man, if Wake and State had played each other this weekend, it would've set the game back 50 years.

Perhaps longer. Maybe even before dean's myth invented peach baskets.

[wsb3]

Does Danny survive the season :eek:?


Wake friend says Yes due to 18 million owed when I just asked that.

[SavDukeGrad]

Does Danny survive the season :eek:?

Many Wake alums (my spouse and 1 of my children included) think they will let him go at the end of the season.

Also, many Wake alums are not that fond of AD Ron Wellman, and think he started the downward spiral by mis-handling the Dino Gaudio situation and hiring Jeff Bzdelik.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Perhaps longer. Maybe even before dean's myth invented peach baskets.

...are those the baskets with four corners........driven around by a ford.....

[devildeac]

Wake friend says Yes due to 18 million owed when I just asked that.

Damn, that's even more expensive than a head covering from "u"nc :eek:.

[devildeac]

...are those the baskets with four corners....driven around by a ford....

I note there wasn't much delay before you responded.

[DukieInBrasil]

Wake Forest tried hard to match NC State's horrendous performance but still ended up scoring 50% more than State did. Still one thing jumped out at me: Wake had 5 players miss every FG they attempted, shooting a combined 0-24, with Childress leading the way with an 0-11 performance.

[gofurman]

Wake Forest tried hard to match NC State's horrendous performance but still ended up scoring 50% more than State did. Still one thing jumped out at me: Wake had 5 players miss every FG they attempted, shooting a combined 0-24, with Childress leading the way with an 0-11 performance.

Clemson continues to slowly move up after starting ACC v Duke, UVA and at Syracuse. From 0-3 to 3-5. If they hadn't blown it at State they would be 4-4 in ACC.
Clemson can finish 9-9 in ACC maybe 10-8 w luck. Q-Would a 10-8 ACC ... And 20-11 overall ... Clemson team get in the tourney? Guess depends on if they get a strong win

[ElliottHoo]

Clemson continues to slowly move up after starting ACC v Duke, UVA and at Syracuse. From 0-3 to 3-5. If they hadn't blown it at State they would be 4-4 in ACC.
Clemson can finish 9-9 in ACC maybe 10-8 w luck. Q-Would a 10-8 ACC ... And 20-11 overall ... Clemson team get in the tourney? Guess depends on if they get a strong win

Clemson’s resume is interesting. Their strength of schedule is respectable, they have no bad losses at all, falling by 8 at Cuse is probably their worst loss and that’s nowhere near a bad loss. On the other hand, Lipscomb is probably their best win.

The ACC has at least one team go 9-9 or even 10-8 and fail to make the tournament (happens much more often than I thought). Clemson’s record would be a little stronger than most of those teams, but they still have bubble written all over them.

[DukieInBrasil]

Clemson continues to slowly move up after starting ACC v Duke, UVA and at Syracuse. From 0-3 to 3-5. If they hadn't blown it at State they would be 4-4 in ACC.
Clemson can finish 9-9 in ACC maybe 10-8 w luck. Q-Would a 10-8 ACC ... And 20-11 overall ... Clemson team get in the tourney? Guess depends on if they get a strong win

a 20 win season in the ACC, with a conference record at or above .500 should get in the tourney without a doubt.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

a 20 win season in the ACC, with a conference record at or above .500 should get in the tourney without a doubt.

In the ACC......they win 9......they should be fine. They win 10- they in.

[pfrduke]

a 20 win season in the ACC, with a conference record at or above .500 should get in the tourney without a doubt.


In the ACC...they win 9...they should be fine. They win 10- they in.

It’s not a guarantee. Miami in 2015 was 21-12 / 10-8 (tel:21-12 / 10-8) and was an NIT 2-seed. Also NIT bound were Clemson 2014 (20-12 / 10-8 (tel:20-12 / 10-8)), Virginia 2013 (21-11 / 11-7 (tel:21-11 / 11-7)), Virginia Tech 2011 (21-11 / 9-7), and Boston College 2011 (21-12 / 9-7), to name a few recent ones.

ETA: Louisville just last year was 20-13 / 9-9, but I don’t remember whether or not they were NCAA eligible.

[JasonEvans]

Wake friend says Yes due to 18 million owed when I just asked that.

Hang on... one second... Wake owes Danny Manning $18 mil on his contract? Are you serious?!?! Did they sign him to a 9 year contract or something? He arrived at Wake in 2014 and has won 20 games exactly 0 times. Did they give him some kind of monster extension after he managed to go 9-9 and finish 10th in the league in 2015?!?! Whaaaat?!?!

(Jason checks Google)

Turns out Wake signed Danny to a 6 year extension (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21569901/wake-forest-demon-deacons-sign-head-coach-danny-manning-contract-extension) early in the 2017-18 season. I find this utterly unfathomable. There was nothing he had done until then to show he was a good recruiter or a guy who could coach up a team to be competitive in the league. And yet, he is under contract through 2025. I get that he is a nice guy who brings in players who don't get in trouble but the standard for being a successful ACC coach should rise at least a little bit above "don't do anything that really embarrasses us."

-Jason "Wake, you made your bed, now you get to lay in it (and lay at the bottom of the league)" Evans

[MChambers]

Hang on... one second... Wake owes Danny Manning $18 mil on his contract? Are you serious?!?! Did they sign him to a 9 year contract or something? He arrived at Wake in 2014 and has won 20 games exactly 0 times. Did they give him some kind of monster extension after he managed to go 9-9 and finish 10th in the league in 2015?!?! Whaaaat?!?!

(Jason checks Google)

Turns out Wake signed Danny to a 6 year extension (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21569901/wake-forest-demon-deacons-sign-head-coach-danny-manning-contract-extension) early in the 2017-18 season. I find this utterly unfathomable. There was nothing he had done until then to show he was a good recruiter or a guy who could coach up a team to be competitive in the league. And yet, he is under contract through 2025. I get that he is a nice guy who brings in players who don't get in trouble but the standard for being a successful ACC coach should rise at least a little bit above "don't do anything that really embarrasses us."

-Jason "Wake, you made your bed, now you get to lay in it (and lay at the bottom of the league)" Evans

Nice Googling, Jason. Wake is even worse off than Georgia Techwas with Paul Hewitt.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Well, they have done it again. Despite averaging 27.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, 3.0 steals, and 79.3% shooting from the field, Zion Williamson was not named ACC Player of the Week yet again. In fact, he has only won the award once this season. He did win the Naismith National Player of the Week, but the ACC Media thought that Nickeil Alexander-Walker's 25 point performance against Miami and 11 points against NC State was worthy of the Player of the Week honors. Alexander-Walker has won the award twice this season.

[robed deity]

Well, they have done it again. Despite averaging 27.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, 3.0 steals, and 79.3% shooting from the field, Zion Williamson was not named ACC Player of the Week yet again. In fact, he has only won the award once this season. He did win the Naismith National Player of the Week, but the ACC Media thought that Nickeil Alexander-Walker's 25 point performance against Miami and 11 points against NC State was worthy of the Player of the Week honors. Alexander-Walker has won the award twice this season.

Haha incredible that someone who played in that disaster of a game Saturday won the award. And with those Zion stats? Amazing. The only thing I can think of is that VA tech played 2 ACC games to Duke's 1.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

It’s not a guarantee. Miami in 2015 was 21-12 / 10-8 (tel:21-12 / 10-8) and was an NIT 2-seed. Also NIT bound were Clemson 2014 (20-12 / 10-8 (tel:20-12 / 10-8)), Virginia 2013 (21-11 / 11-7 (tel:21-11 / 11-7)), Virginia Tech 2011 (21-11 / 9-7), and Boston College 2011 (21-12 / 9-7), to name a few recent ones.
.

Different years....different sized conference. In 2014 and 2015, the ACC only got six bids. In 2013 only 4. Seems to me that the expectation is maybe 9 this year. Not saying that 10-8 gets you in every year, just confident it will this year.

[SavDukeGrad]

Hang on... one second... Wake owes Danny Manning $18 mil on his contract? Are you serious?!?! Did they sign him to a 9 year contract or something? He arrived at Wake in 2014 and has won 20 games exactly 0 times. Did they give him some kind of monster extension after he managed to go 9-9 and finish 10th in the league in 2015?!?! Whaaaat?!?!

(Jason checks Google)

Turns out Wake signed Danny to a 6 year extension (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21569901/wake-forest-demon-deacons-sign-head-coach-danny-manning-contract-extension) early in the 2017-18 season. I find this utterly unfathomable. There was nothing he had done until then to show he was a good recruiter or a guy who could coach up a team to be competitive in the league. And yet, he is under contract through 2025. I get that he is a nice guy who brings in players who don't get in trouble but the standard for being a successful ACC coach should rise at least a little bit above "don't do anything that really embarrasses us."

-Jason "Wake, you made your bed, now you get to lay in it (and lay at the bottom of the league)" Evans

Yes. If memory serves, they extended his contract after making the NCAA tournament in 2017. Of course, they actually made one of the play in games (which I believe they lost) which was largely due to John Collins’ excellent sophomore season. (To be fair, Danny does deserve some credit for John Collins’ development).

This is why many Wake fans blame AD Ron Wellman for mishandling the basketball situation, going back to the days of Dino.

[devildeac]

Well, they have done it again. Despite averaging 27.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, 3.0 steals, and 79.3% shooting from the field, Zion Williamson was not named ACC Player of the Week yet again. In fact, he has only won the award once this season. He did win the Naismith National Player of the Week, but the ACC Media thought that Nickeil Alexander-Walker's 25 point performance against Miami and 11 points against NC State was worthy of the Player of the Week honors. Alexander-Walker has won the award twice this season.


Haha incredible that someone who played in that disaster of a game Saturday won the award. And with those Zion stats? Amazing. The only thing I can think of is that VA tech played 2 ACC games to Duke's 1.

Maybe they've been reading/taking clues from some of our MOTM votes this season :rolleyes:.

<exit, stage right>

[DavidBenAkiva]

Maybe they've been reading/taking clues from some of our MOTM votes this season :rolleyes:.

<exit, stage right>

I went back through the Player/Rookie of the Week rankings, and this is the 5th time this season the Rookie of the Week has averaged more points per game than the Player of the Week. On two occasions, the Player and Rookie of the Week were the same person, Week 1 with Zion and Week 5 with R.J. Zion has outscored the Player of the Week twice now, once during Week 11 (Tyus Battle) and again this week.

[NSDukeFan]

I went back through the Player/Rookie of the Week rankings, and this is the 5th time this season the Rookie of the Week has averaged more points per game than the Player of the Week. On two occasions, the Player and Rookie of the Week were the same person, Week 1 with Zion and Week 5 with R.J. Zion has outscored the Player of the Week twice now, once during Week 11 (Tyus Battle) and again this week.

But...all Zion can do is dunk?

[devildeac]

I went back through the Player/Rookie of the Week rankings, and this is the 5th time this season the Rookie of the Week has averaged more points per game than the Player of the Week. On two occasions, the Player and Rookie of the Week were the same person, Week 1 with Zion and Week 5 with R.J. Zion has outscored the Player of the Week twice now, once during Week 11 (Tyus Battle) and again this week.

Thanks for researching (and your many, many recruiting updates, too)!

[wsb3]

Hang on... one second... Wake owes Danny Manning $18 mil on his contract? Are you serious?!?! Did they sign him to a 9 year contract or something? He arrived at Wake in 2014 and has won 20 games exactly 0 times. Did they give him some kind of monster extension after he managed to go 9-9 and finish 10th in the league in 2015?!?! Whaaaat?!?!

(Jason checks Google)

Turns out Wake signed Danny to a 6 year extension (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/21569901/wake-forest-demon-deacons-sign-head-coach-danny-manning-contract-extension) early in the 2017-18 season. I find this utterly unfathomable. There was nothing he had done until then to show he was a good recruiter or a guy who could coach up a team to be competitive in the league. And yet, he is under contract through 2025. I get that he is a nice guy who brings in players who don't get in trouble but the standard for being a successful ACC coach should rise at least a little bit above "don't do anything that really embarrasses us."

-Jason "Wake, you made your bed, now you get to lay in it (and lay at the bottom of the league)" Evans

I did trust my friend without googling..Knowing with the astute posters on this board that I would quickly be called out if my information was wrong.:D

But this link was on the DBR Home Page this morning. Riley Johnson..

Jeff Goodman wrote a couple of months ago that Manning’s contract with Wake Forest was $18M guaranteed, and while this seems outside of the realm of possibilities in my mind, I have no reason to doubt him given his insider track record. If this is the case, and even if it’s $10M instead of $18M, there is no reason to keep Manning a day longer than necessary since he is going to get his money anyway.

From Goodman:

Wake Forest athletic director Ron Wellman signed Danny Manning to a six-year extension that runs through 2024-25 nearly a year ago to the day. A source told me that the deal is fully guaranteed, meaning that Wake is on the hook for somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 million if it makes a move to let go of Manning. The first couple of years, and a 24-39 mark, were on the previous regime. But after a 19-14 record and an NCAA tourney bid in 2016-17, Wake went 11-20 last season and has started out 4-2 this year with a loss this past weekend to Houston Baptist.


But what Manning did to merit that kind of extension escapes me as well.

[akg4y]

With the Pac-12 crapping the bed this year it should be easier for the middle of the road ACC teams like a 10-8 or 9-9 team to get a bid.