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JasonEvans
01-20-2019, 05:09 PM
Just wanted to have a collector thread for conversation about the race to win the ACC regular season title (I know, I know, meaningless due to imbalanced schedule but we all still care about it and the NCAA committee seems to think it is significant).

Current standings:
https://i.ibb.co/B37f23w/Capture.png

So, 5 games in and we have a 6-way tie for first. Which of these teams are pretenders who will fall back in a big way? I'm tempted to say Louisville is a big pretender, but there is a decent chance they will get to 7-1 as their next 3 are NCSt at home, Pitt at home, and then at Wake. Of course, they better pile up wins while they can as the back half of their schedule has a ton of tough games.

What are the big surprises so far? FSU at 1-4 (they just lost to BC) looks like they are teetering. The crushing loss to Duke seems to have broken them as they have dropped games to Pitt and BC since then.

-Jason "how many games will Pitt win? I see 7 or 8 more games they have a decent chance at winning, they won't win all of them but if they get to 6 or more total ACC wins, I think Capel is a COY candidate" Evans

arnie
01-20-2019, 05:27 PM
Just wanted to have a collector thread for conversation about the race to win the ACC regular season title (I know, I know, meaningless due to imbalanced schedule but we all still care about it and the NCAA committee seems to think it is significant).

Current standings:
https://i.ibb.co/B37f23w/Capture.png

So, 5 games in and we have a 6-way tie for first. Which of these teams are pretenders who will fall back in a big way? I'm tempted to say Louisville is a big pretender, but there is a decent chance they will get to 7-1 as their next 3 are NCSt at home, Pitt at home, and then at Wake. Of course, they better pile up wins while they can as the back half of their schedule has a ton of tough games.

What are the big surprises so far? FSU at 1-4 (they just lost to BC) looks like they are teetering. The crushing loss to Duke seems to have broken them as they have dropped games to Pitt and BC since then.

-Jason "how many games will Pitt win? I see 7 or 8 more games they have a decent chance at winning, they won't win all of them but if they get to 6 or more total ACC wins, I think Capel is a COY candidate" Evans

These standings don’t reflect BC’s win earlier today. Interesting that we have a 6-way tie for 1st and 6 teams only have one win. The middle of the standings only include 3 teams. If we can beat UVA a 2nd time, I think we’re in great shape for the reg season.

Wander
01-20-2019, 05:31 PM
Gotta like our chances at leading the ACC at 8-1 when we go to Virginia in a few weeks... we avoid the other 4-1 teams until then, while they all play each other (except for UVA, but they have a tough road game at NC State).

JasonEvans
01-21-2019, 01:59 PM
Up to date standings... as we enter the new week.

https://i.ibb.co/fCQQqFK/Capture-1.png

-Jason "if the ACC is going to get 8 or 9 teams into the dance, and we should, then a few of those clubs at the bottom need to fix things... quick" Evans

TruBlu
01-21-2019, 06:56 PM
Here’s hoping that Va Tech is in sole possession of first place after tonight ... because cheaters.

And then tied for first place after tomorrow night ... because Duke.

gofurman
01-22-2019, 07:40 AM
My take

UNC Is improving .. kills me but they look like they are. Cody White impresses me

FSU Is way too talented (as we saw) to be that low. They need to get their stuff together.

All ACC teams have some talent but Pitt and Wake have the least right now imo. I agree that Capel is doing great if he goes even near 5/6 ACC wins as everyone left the program. He is starting from scratch. And he may exceed Wake Forest who has some upperclassmen. Pitt's top two scorers are freshman. Pitt could be pretty good in a year or two - the whole team returns for the next two years or so (basically one senior contributes now).. it's almost all freshman and a sophomore or two. I would have never thought they could start out beating FSU and Louisville. I have to think Wake will let Danny Manning go.. it's been too long with no success

Clemson needs to win some soon. They are a decent team that lost one contributor from last year - a big one in Gabe DeVoe.. but still they have 4 of 5 guys back from a sweet sixteen team that made a strong run. Their schedule was hard to start playing at Duke... at Syracuse.. home UVA. So they started 0-3 which is understandable playing two top 5 teams. And they beat Georgia Tech at Clemson. Now they have a slightly easier run coming. Maybe they get to ACC 10-8, 20-11 overall - would that make the tourney?

I would think Georgia Tech would slide to the bottom as Okogie is in the NBA and Lammers is gone too. Not sure what talent they have

uh_no
01-31-2019, 03:40 PM
duke/unc/uva/UL still control their own destinies, of course.

Syracuse ALSO does as it still has games remaining against all the 1 loss teams. VT does not, as they don't play UNC again.

The 1-7 teams are all eliminated, as with the interplay between those top 4 teams, at best, they all get exactly 2 wins, finishing 9-7...and in such a scenario, I can't imagine one of those teams would win a tiebreak, given the games they've already lost to those guys at the top. It's also likely if all those teams finished 9-7, someone who has 2 losses would rise above the pack...though I can't prove that necessarily happens. This will all be moot in a week's time when their elimination numbers hit 0.

(Note: ACC does not tiebreak for regular season title...they do, however, for the 1 seed...so i suppose those 1-7 teams are still kind of technically alive...)

JasonEvans
02-01-2019, 09:23 AM
Thanks for the reminder uh_no, here are the full standings as most teams finish the first half of their ACC schedule this weekend:

https://i.ibb.co/9h5qrCz/Capture.png

CDu
02-01-2019, 09:35 AM
If the season were to end today, we'd be the top seed in the ACC tourney. Let's keep it that way. Though I guess this weekend could see that change (if Louisville wins, they'll assume the top spot; if UNC wins, we'll stay atop).

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-01-2019, 09:43 AM
Syracuse has to be the biggest surprise. Very interested to see how the second half of their season shapes up.

flyingdutchdevil
02-01-2019, 09:51 AM
Syracuse has to be the biggest surprise. Very interested to see how the second half of their season shapes up.

I think Louisville has been a bigger revelation, especially considering this is Mack's first year. Louisville has an insanely difficult road ahead, but they aren't losing to bad teams (except Pitt) and they murdered a really good UNC team at UNC.

Kfanarmy
02-01-2019, 11:05 AM
Syracuse has to be the biggest surprise. Very interested to see how the second half of their season shapes up.

Think they go about 3-7 down the stretch though. probably finish a couple of spots lower than they are.

JasonEvans
02-01-2019, 11:16 AM
Think they go about 3-7 down the stretch though. probably finish a couple of spots lower than they are.

Yeah, I mentioned in another thread that Lousiville has had the easiest schedule in the conference so far and has the hardest schedule the rest of the way (they will end with the 8th toughest schedule, which seems pretty fair). This weekend they begin a 7 game stretch in which they will probably only be a favorite twice (home to UNC and home to Clemson). They have both Duke and Virginia at home, great opportunities for important resume-making wins... but not easy games to win.

That said, I'm more optimistic on them than you are. I expect them to be 5-5 down the stretch which would put them at 12-6 in the conference and make them a very strong contender for 3rd in the league.

-Jason "I'm guessing that Duke and UVA lose no more than 3 games each" Evans

JasonEvans
02-01-2019, 11:18 AM
Syracuse has to be the biggest surprise. Very interested to see how the second half of their season shapes up.

They may be a surprise given their lackluster play in Nov and Dec, but don't forget that this year's Syracuse squad is not all that difference from the team that made the Sweet 16 last year and most folks had them pegged as a preseason top 15 team. If you has asked me in September or October who would be the top teams in the ACC this year, I would certainly have put Syracuse in the mix.

-Jason "the Orange also have a tough finishing stretch-- I think they've got 4 or 5 more losses coming" Evans

UrinalCake
02-01-2019, 11:32 AM
I expected Syracuse to be good - they were a sweet 16 team last year and brought back Battle. Thought that Louisville would struggle more but I also thought their recruiting would take more of a hit after all the scandals. Chris Mack has done a great job with them. If State had managed to pull out that win over UVA, I would have felt much better about our chances of winning the regular season. Instead it feels like UVA got their bad game out of their system and still won.

Our schedule is about to get brutal. After BC we basically play a top-40 team every game the rest of the way except for Wake.

JasonEvans
02-01-2019, 11:50 AM
Our schedule is about to get brutal. After BC we basically play a top-40 team every game the rest of the way except for Wake.

...and Miami.

Yeah, that is what the ACC is this year. There are very few easy games in the league with at least 8 tourney teams and a few more who are knocking on the door. That said, I still think Duke and UVA come through all this with no more than 3 losses each.

BandAlum83
02-01-2019, 12:10 PM
I'm curious, how many teams in the ACC are using their bye week to play a non-conference game like Duke is?

I suppose I could go through each team's schedule to see, but maybe someone here already knows the answer.

Rich
02-01-2019, 01:10 PM
Thanks for the reminder uh_no, here are the full standings as most teams finish the first half of their ACC schedule this weekend:

https://i.ibb.co/9h5qrCz/Capture.png

I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, and perhaps it's a stupid question, but I'm curious: Why is UVA above us in that table?

The records and W/L percentage are identical, but...
We beat them in the only face to face matchup
The national ranking favors Duke
The D (in Duke) precedes V in the alphabet
The B (in Blue Devils) precedes C in the alphabet

Why are they listed first and us second?

BandAlum83
02-01-2019, 01:13 PM
I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, and perhaps it's a stupid question, but I'm curious: Why is UVA above us in that table?

The records and W/L percentage are identical, but...
We beat them in the only face to face matchup
The national ranking favors Duke
The D (in Duke) precedes V in the alphabet
The B (in Blue Devils) precedes C in the alphabet

Why are they listed first and us second?


9004

Their overall record and winning percentage is better.

uh_no
02-01-2019, 01:33 PM
I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, and perhaps it's a stupid question, but I'm curious: Why is UVA above us in that table?

The records and W/L percentage are identical, but...
We beat them in the only face to face matchup
The national ranking favors Duke
The D (in Duke) precedes V in the alphabet
The B (in Blue Devils) precedes C in the alphabet

Why are they listed first and us second?

overall record. ESPN doesn't implement the tie-breaks for each conference.

Rich
02-01-2019, 01:38 PM
9004

Their overall record and winning percentage is better.


overall record. ESPN doesn't implement the tie-breaks for each conference.

Yeah, well, I'm not impressed!

Wahoo2000
02-01-2019, 04:29 PM
...and Miami.

Yeah, that is what the ACC is this year. There are very few easy games in the league with at least 8 tourney teams and a few more who are knocking on the door. That said, I still think Duke and UVA come through all this with no more than 3 losses each.

If Duke wins in Charlottesville next weekend, I'm not so sure about that. We have a tough turnaround just 2 nights later @UNC, and a bevy of tough contests thereafter. I think UVA will drop more than 1 game post Duke-return-game.

gofurman
02-01-2019, 05:21 PM
If Duke wins in Charlottesville next weekend, I'm not so sure about that. We have a tough turnaround just 2 nights later @UNC, and a bevy of tough contests thereafter. I think UVA will drop more than 1 game post Duke-return-game.

UVA. Please beat unc. No jinx

HereBeforeCoachK
02-01-2019, 09:13 PM
If Duke wins in Charlottesville next weekend, I'm not so sure about that. We have a tough turnaround just 2 nights later @UNC, and a bevy of tough contests thereafter. I think UVA will drop more than 1 game post Duke-return-game.

I don't think UVa beats the cheats, as much as it pains me. They'll invest way too much into the Duke game build up, and the game itself, win or lose - to be able to recover in two days. Swofford scheduling strikes again....

Wahoo2000
02-01-2019, 10:44 PM
I don't think UVa beats the cheats, as much as it pains me. They'll invest way too much into the Duke game build up, and the game itself, win or lose - to be able to recover in two days. Swofford scheduling strikes again...

I'm not going as far as to predict a loss, but I think on normal rest we'd be a legit 2-4pt favorite, even on the road. With the Duke game only 48 hours prior? Feels like a pick 'em, maybe UNC -1

brevity
02-01-2019, 11:30 PM
Today I discovered the existence of ACC Power Rankings from a pair of fansites. ACCSports.com (https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/acc-basketball-power-rankings-week-13-kyle-guy-keeps-hitting-robinson-leads-hokies-and-wake-continues-to-slump/) posted theirs Monday, and Streaking the Lawn (https://www.streakingthelawn.com/2019/2/1/18206676/streaking-the-lawns-acc-mens-basketball-power-rankings-2-1-19-uva-duke-unc) released theirs today.

Both sites compile the opinions of multiple contributors and try to stay current from week to week. All admirable. But what I don't get is that each contributor's rankings are basically lifted from the win-loss standings; at most you'll see a mild variation, usually when a pair of teams are tied. What's the point of this exercise? If DBR were to assemble a weekly Power Rankings, I'd like to think that voters would take the unbalanced schedules into account. Almost all ACC teams have played 8 conference games so far, but those 8-game slates are far from equal. (I take some comfort in noticing that while UNC has only played two teams who currently have a winning conference record, and played them both at home, they still managed a 21-point win and a 21-point loss.)

Which leads to my question: how do you take unbalanced schedules into account? Is there a statistical metric in existence that can adjust a team's conference record based on strength of schedule? Many of the stat sources that are cited here look at the season as a whole, and don't limit themselves to conference play.

If done meaningfully, a weekly ACC Power Rankings thread might be a nice complement to pfrduke's This Week in the ACC posts.

Kedsy
02-01-2019, 11:48 PM
Which leads to my question: how do you take unbalanced schedules into account? Is there a statistical metric in existence that can adjust a team's conference record based on strength of schedule? Many of the stat sources that are cited here look at the season as a whole, and don't limit themselves to conference play.

Torvik allows you a conference-games only view (http://www.barttorvik.com/?year=2019&sort=&lastx=0&hteam=&t2value=&conlimit=ACC&state=All&begin=20181101&end=20190501&top=0&quad=5&venue=All&type=C&mingames=0#). I bet Pomeroy has something similar behind the paywall (though I'm not a subscriber, so I don't know for sure).

Indoor66
02-02-2019, 06:10 AM
Today I discovered the existence of ACC Power Rankings from a pair of fansites. ACCSports.com (https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/acc-basketball-power-rankings-week-13-kyle-guy-keeps-hitting-robinson-leads-hokies-and-wake-continues-to-slump/) posted theirs Monday, and Streaking the Lawn (https://www.streakingthelawn.com/2019/2/1/18206676/streaking-the-lawns-acc-mens-basketball-power-rankings-2-1-19-uva-duke-unc) released theirs today.

Both sites compile the opinions of multiple contributors and try to stay current from week to week. All admirable. But what I don't get is that each contributor's rankings are basically lifted from the win-loss standings; at most you'll see a mild variation, usually when a pair of teams are tied. What's the point of this exercise? If DBR were to assemble a weekly Power Rankings, I'd like to think that voters would take the unbalanced schedules into account. Almost all ACC teams have played 8 conference games so far, but those 8-game slates are far from equal. (I take some comfort in noticing that while UNC has only played two teams who currently have a winning conference record, and played them both at home, they still managed a 21-point win and a 21-point loss.)

Which leads to my question: how do you take unbalanced schedules into account? Is there a statistical metric in existence that can adjust a team's conference record based on strength of schedule? Many of the stat sources that are cited here look at the season as a whole, and don't limit themselves to conference play.

If done meaningfully, a weekly ACC Power Rankings thread might be a nice complement to pfrduke's This Week in the ACC posts.

Maybe such rankings are not meaningful on a weekly basis - too little additional data to support changes?

HereBeforeCoachK
02-02-2019, 08:31 AM
I'm not going as far as to predict a loss, but I think on normal rest we'd be a legit 2-4pt favorite, even on the road. With the Duke game only 48 hours prior? Feels like a pick 'em, maybe UNC -1

You may be right...hope you are...but the issue here, IMO, is NOT rest. Not physical rest. It's far more emotional and mental rest that they will not get enough of. I would bet a pie, ten to one, that the energy and intensity exhibited by UVa in the Duke games is noticeably and palpably higher than in the UNC game...especially early. This will be just 48 hours after your home super bowl game, will it not?

MarkD83
02-02-2019, 10:43 AM
So here is a simple analysis that works for me...

A team gets 1 point for a road win and -1 for a home loss.
Now that we are 1/2 way through the season you can also see which teams are in the top half of the league (in contention) and who is in the bottom half. So another 1 point for a win against a top half of the league team. That takes care of the games already played.

For the future games I look at potential points (count just away games and games against top teams). Any games home or away against the bottom half of the league should be wins so no potential points there.

With that in mind here is the handicap for the top 8 teams in the league as of today

Team Points earned Potential points
UVA 7 10
Duke 5 12
Louis 5 11
UNC 6 10
VT 3 7
Syracuse 3 11
NCSU 1 9
FSU 0 9

So obviously there are games today that could really shake up the potential points

VT @ NCSU is 2 potential points for VT. If they don't get them they are almost out of the running for 1st place. They would only be able to get to 8 points.
UNC @ Louisville is 2 potential points for UNC. If they don't get them they still could end with 14 points.

Wahoo2000
02-02-2019, 05:16 PM
You may be right...hope you are...but the issue here, IMO, is NOT rest. Not physical rest. It's far more emotional and mental rest that they will not get enough of. I would bet a pie, ten to one, that the energy and intensity exhibited by UVa in the Duke games is noticeably and palpably higher than in the UNC game...especially early. This will be just 48 hours after your home super bowl game, will it not?

Except that I'd call @UNC our "road" super bowl game as well as they've been playing lately. Add in that we have a week with no games (today through Sat) to rest and prepare, and it helps with the "fatigue factor" somewhat. Obviously, the UNC game will be tougher from an energy/preparedness standpoint, but I *honestly* believe (though I doubt you agree) that Tony and the players want to win @UNC just as much as they want to beat Duke at home.

Edited to add: Different story for the fans though - I bet 9/10 UVa fans would trade a loss at UNC for a home win vs Duke. Personally, I'm just hoping for at least a split - however it comes doesn't really matter much to me, though I will be distraught after a loss to either.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-02-2019, 05:18 PM
Except that I'd call @UNC our "road" super bowl game as well as they've been playing lately. Add in that we have a week with no games (today through Sat) to rest and prepare, and it helps with the "fatigue factor" somewhat. Obviously, the UNC game will be tougher from an energy/preparedness standpoint, but I *honestly* believe (though I doubt you agree) that Tony and the players want to win @UNC just as much as they want to beat Duke at home.

This would not be consistent with what I've observed - most of the time - since 1991-92. And not just at UVa.....pretty much everywhere.

Wahoo2000
02-02-2019, 05:24 PM
This would not be consistent with what I've observed - most of the time - since 1991-92. And not just at UVa....pretty much everywhere.

I don't know, I think us going 28-2 in our last 30 ACC games means we pretty much "bring it" every night. Sometimes we shoot poorly, those are the ones we have a chance to lose. But I see A+++ effort pretty much every single time out.

westwall
02-02-2019, 05:46 PM
I know in the grand scheme of things it doesn't matter, and perhaps it's a stupid question, but I'm curious: Why is UVA above us in that [ACC standings] table?

The records and W/L percentage are identical, but...
We beat them in the only face to face matchup
The national ranking favors Duke
The D (in Duke) precedes V in the alphabet
The B (in Blue Devils) precedes C in the alphabet

Why are they listed first and us second?

I agreed earlier with the OPs who pointed out that Virginia was listed first because its overall record (only one loss) was better than Duke's (two losses)

But now I have no logical explanation for why ESPN has bumped UNC ahead of Duke based on the games this afternoon. Duke seems to me to be tied or ahead of UNC based on all relevant criteria (and even alphabetically). Anyone???

HereBeforeCoachK
02-02-2019, 05:50 PM
I don't know, I think us going 28-2 in our last 30 ACC games means we pretty much "bring it" every night. Sometimes we shoot poorly, those are the ones we have a chance to lose. But I see A+++ effort pretty much every single time out.

The Hoo players do bring it pretty much every night (UMBC being the fugly exception) - but I think the arena energy is more for Duke than anyone. I believe JPJ has been stormed twice, once for Zona real early in it's history and then once for Duke. I also think a storming was on the way in 2015 til Quin and Tyus combined for 9 rapid fire points late in the game.

BandAlum83
02-02-2019, 05:50 PM
I agreed earlier with the OPs who pointed out that Virginia was listed first because its overall record (only one loss) was better than Duke's (two losses)

But now I have no logical explanation for why ESPN has bumped UNC ahead of Duke based on the games this afternoon. Duke seems to me to be tied or ahead of UNC based on all relevant criteria (and even alphabetically). Anyone???

That's not what I am seeing. Perhaps you saw it when it was in mid-update?

9008

Wahoo2000
02-02-2019, 10:06 PM
The Hoo players do bring it pretty much every night (UMBC being the fugly exception) - but I think the arena energy is more for Duke than anyone. I believe JPJ has been stormed twice, once for Zona real early in it's history and then once for Duke. I also think a storming was on the way in 2015 til Quin and Tyus combined for 9 rapid fire points late in the game.

Yeah - like in my previous post, Duke is DEFINITELY the biggest deal for 90% (ok, maybe 99%) of the fanbase. But I do think Bennett does a good job of getting the team to keep things in perspective (big game, sure. but don't make it your super bowl).

And if we somehow win next Saturday, and they storm the court, I'll be embarrassed. No top 5 team should ever storm the court, unless the opponent is undefeated in mid-late Feb, or MAYBE if there's some kind of insane miracle comeback, like a 20 point second half deficit where you win at the buzzer on a half court shot.

duke4ever19
02-02-2019, 10:25 PM
The Hoo players do bring it pretty much every night (UMBC being the fugly exception) - but I think the arena energy is more for Duke than anyone. I believe JPJ has been stormed twice, once for Zona real early in it's history and then once for Duke. I also think a storming was on the way in 2015 til Quin and Tyus combined for 9 rapid fire points late in the game.

It would be odd if UVA didn't bring it in the one game they had to win in order to keep playing, especially after the great regular season they had.

Ryan Odom just exploited the limitations in the UVA defense and it just so happens that UVA also plays the exact type of tempo an underdog would need to pull off an upset. UVA isn't used to playing catch-up so they were all thumbs when they needed to push the pace to increase their total number of possessions/chances to score.

duke2x
02-02-2019, 10:49 PM
That's not what I am seeing. Perhaps you saw it when it was in mid-update?

It's there on ESPN.com now. The only logical explanation is the UNC-Louisville game was played later.

I think the emotion of the Duke-UVA game and UNC's lack of preparation time for UVA cancel each other out at worst. We will see.

BandAlum83
02-02-2019, 11:17 PM
It's there on ESPN.com now. The only logical explanation is the UNC-Louisville game was played later.

I think the emotion of the Duke-UVA game and UNC's lack of preparation time for UVA cancel each other out at worst. We will see.

I attached a screen shot from ESPN.com.

Would love a link to what you are seeing.

westwall
02-02-2019, 11:22 PM
It's there on ESPN.com now. The only logical explanation is the UNC-Louisville game was played later.

I think the emotion of the Duke-UVA game and UNC's lack of preparation time for UVA cancel each other out at worst. We will see.

I am again (11:!0 EST) looking at "ESPN, NCAAM, Standings, ACC" (newly reloaded) and it STILLS shows Duke in 3rd place, below UNC. And I still do not perceive any logical reason for putting Duke 3rd.

gofurman
02-02-2019, 11:33 PM
Duke could easily be a top team in the nation and finish 3rd in ACC standings. We are to go ...At UVA. At Louis. Vs State and v Unc At Syracuse. At VT. At UNC. We could easily finish 14-4 in acc.

UVA and UNC could both top us in standings. Uva especially but UNC scares me lately.

devildeac
02-02-2019, 11:34 PM
I agreed earlier with the OPs who pointed out that Virginia was listed first because its overall record (only one loss) was better than Duke's (two losses)

But now I have no logical explanation for why ESPN has bumped UNC ahead of Duke based on the games this afternoon. Duke seems to me to be tied or ahead of UNC based on all relevant criteria (and even alphabetically). Anyone???

Not so fast there:

A
B
Cheat
Duke

See?

Bob Green
02-03-2019, 08:08 AM
And if we somehow win next Saturday, and they storm the court, I'll be embarrassed. No top 5 team should ever storm the court, unless the opponent is undefeated in mid-late Feb, or MAYBE if there's some kind of insane miracle comeback, like a 20 point second half deficit where you win at the buzzer on a half court shot.

Great point. Storming the court is so overdone.

The benchmark should be Notre Dame fans storming the court after breaking UCLA's 88 game winning streak:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4MBIQoCO-U

If your team's win doesn't top that -- keep your butt in the stands.

budwom
02-03-2019, 09:29 AM
in the past we've seen some teams storm the court when they were favored. Very high on the lameness scale.

JasonEvans
02-03-2019, 04:45 PM
in the past we've seen some teams storm the court when they were favored. Very high on the lameness scale.

Just so we are clear, it is always, always, always ok to storm the court when we beat Carolina. I will go to my grave thinking thus.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-03-2019, 04:47 PM
Just so we are clear, it is always, always, always ok to storm the court when we beat Carolina. I will go to my grave thinking thus.

Now that's interesting.....that's the last team I'd want to storm the court for......I think Duke should act almost nonchalant when we beat the Cheat

Rich
02-03-2019, 04:55 PM
Now that's interesting...that's the last team I'd want to storm the court for...I think Duke should act almost nonchalant when we beat the Cheat

Have to agree. Duke doesn’t storm the court, least of all against the cheaters down the road. Oh, and BEAT THE CHEAT is a great idea for a sign on game day!

UVa1981
02-03-2019, 05:28 PM
Yeah - like in my previous post, Duke is DEFINITELY the biggest deal for 90% (ok, maybe 99%) of the fanbase. But I do think Bennett does a good job of getting the team to keep things in perspective (big game, sure. but don't make it your super bowl).

I think you're right to separate the fans from the team, and I agree that the UVa fans (including me) would prefer a win against Duke and a loss against UNC to a loss against Duke and a win against UNC. Most of that, IMO, is because Duke has consistently been a better team than UNC, on balance, for at least 10 years, so much so that a win against Duke at home looks bigger than a win against UNC on the road. The rest of it is about home court. UVa has lost very infrequently at the JPJ over the past 5 years, so you want to protect the home court advantage and then try to pick up as many wins on the road as you can get.

On the other hand, I don't think Bennett cares: he just wants to see max effort and self-discipline to deliver on fundamentals (defensive rebounding, TOs, get back on D, protect the paint, close out the shooters) every night; if your team does that, it will win its fair share of games.

brevity
02-03-2019, 06:27 PM
Just so we are clear, it is always, always, always ok to storm the court when we beat Carolina. I will go to my grave thinking thus.

Well, it depends. Which court?

In Durham, it would have to be some extenuating circumstances (unlikely comeback, huge upset, some triumph over tragedy narrative) to merit a celebration like that.

In Chapel Hill, the bar is lower. A sly comeback, maybe a significant upset, or anything better. Even then, I think that storming the court is fun in the short term but invites revenge in the long term.

At the ACC Tournament, only if Duke needed the automatic bid.

At the Final Four, only on Monday night, and then under all circumstances.

wgl1228
02-04-2019, 02:52 PM
When is the last time Duke students stormed the court?

uh_no
02-04-2019, 03:08 PM
When is the last time Duke students stormed the court?

dockery '05 over VT

not including "stormings" for national championships.

hibby91
02-04-2019, 03:16 PM
I think we did my freshman year in 1988 when beating UNC. We were ranked 9 and them 6. We had just lost 3 games in a row, but we did beat them 3 times that year. We beat them 96-81, but it was fairly close until the end.

It may not have been a full court rushing, but there were people on the court before the players were off.

I don't remember seeing any others and feel somewhat foolish for that event.

uh_no
02-04-2019, 03:31 PM
with no more games against UNC, and a game back in the loss column, UL no longer controls their destiny.

Syracuse, however, still does.

With 4 games left between the top 3 teams, at least two guaranteed to get to 9 wins, which means that the canes and the deacs are officially eliminated from contention.

I believe that 10-6 is actually the minimum best record now. Logic:

If duke and UNC split, and UVA beats unc and loses to duke, then duke and UVA have 9 wins, and UNC has 8.

Syracuse has a game left against all three, and so naturally would lose to UNC and beat uva and duke. Now we have 4 teams at 9 wins.

UL has 2 games against virginia and a game against duke left...so they either win all 3 and end up with 10 wins, or one of duke or UVA does.

So this eliminates ND and Pitt from contention for the league title, and means that GT and BC can only tie


(Note: it may be true that someone is guaranteed to get to 11-5, but I don't feel like evaluating the network flow...or writing code for it right now)

So to summarize:

In control:
uva
unc
Duke
Syracuse

Eliminated from everything:
ND
Pitt
Miami
Wake

Eliminated from winning the league outright:
GT
BC

wsb3
02-04-2019, 03:41 PM
but we did beat them 3 times that year.

One of my favorite years because of that.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-04-2019, 03:55 PM
I think we did my freshman year in 1988 when beating UNC. We were ranked 9 and them 6. We had just lost 3 games in a row, but we did beat them 3 times that year. We beat them 96-81, but it was fairly close until the end.

It may not have been a full court rushing, but there were people on the court before the players were off.
.

In 1988 Duke had zero National Titles and Carolina had 2. The Cheats had been the over all dominant program in the league for 15 years, give or take, (although they shared that dominance at times with Virginia, State, Maryland and sometimes Duke). They were still rebuilding a bit from the hard graduation hit in 86. No one had any idea at the time that this team was Final Four bound, and headed to five straight FF's and six of the next 7. As you mentioned, they had just lost three in a row. I don't remember that storming, but I don't find it objectionable.

And I didn't like the post Dockery storming at all. I almost felt guilty for winning that one. And today? Duke shouldn't storm the court, even if they beat the Warriors.

uh_no
02-04-2019, 03:57 PM
And today? Duke shouldn't storm the court, even if they beat the Warriors.

c'mon.....our ragtag group of bandits with a little yellow rope is obviously going to prevent it anyway :D :D

akg4y
02-04-2019, 05:20 PM
This is a helpful little site to check periodically in case you havent seen it before:

http://www.playoffstatus.com/accbasketball/accstandings.html

Tappan Zee Devil
02-04-2019, 08:04 PM
When is the last time Duke students stormed the court?

I was part of storming the court after the Freddy Lind game, so it has happened.

OldPhiKap
02-04-2019, 08:25 PM
I think we did my freshman year in 1988 when beating UNC. We were ranked 9 and them 6. We had just lost 3 games in a row, but we did beat them 3 times that year. We beat them 96-81, but it was fairly close until the end.

It may not have been a full court rushing, but there were people on the court before the players were off.

I don't remember seeing any others and feel somewhat foolish for that event.


One of my favorite years because of that.

My senior year, and probably the only time I was part of a court storming.

ES, DS, ES!!!!

wgl1228
02-05-2019, 09:17 AM
About 7-8 years ago some students started to storm after a UNC game but K waved them off. So I think the Dockery buzzer beater might be the last time it happened.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-05-2019, 09:27 AM
About 7-8 years ago some students started to storm after a UNC game but K waved them off. So I think the Dockery buzzer beater might be the last time it happened.

That was embarrassing to me......a team Duke shoulda killed.....lucky to barely beat....at home......I didn't like that storming at all.

uh_no
02-05-2019, 01:22 PM
About 7-8 years ago some students started to storm after a UNC game but K waved them off. So I think the Dockery buzzer beater might be the last time it happened.

maybe 2011 or 2015. both big comebacks

Billy Dat
02-05-2019, 02:08 PM
ESPN's quant-focused college basketball scribe, John Gasaway, has a cool little piece talking about how, within the ACC, Duke and Louisville are kind of identical

https://johngasaway.com/2019/02/05/tuesday-truths-salute-to-concision-edition/

Great closing section:

"The Cards actually make threes, with Jordan Nwora, Ryan McMahon, and Dwayne Sutton all shooting 37 percent or better on their threes in ACC play. Conversely if Duke ever does that, it will make Coach K’s team effectively unstoppable. If at some point this season you see multiple Blue Devils consistently hitting shots from beyond the arc, think of it as the college hoops equivalent to the moment in Jurassic Park when the velociraptors learned how to open doors."

CDu
02-05-2019, 02:48 PM
ESPN's quant-focused college basketball scribe, John Gasaway, has a cool little piece talking about how, within the ACC, Duke and Louisville are kind of identical

https://johngasaway.com/2019/02/05/tuesday-truths-salute-to-concision-edition/

Great closing section:

"The Cards actually make threes, with Jordan Nwora, Ryan McMahon, and Dwayne Sutton all shooting 37 percent or better on their threes in ACC play. Conversely if Duke ever does that, it will make Coach K’s team effectively unstoppable. If at some point this season you see multiple Blue Devils consistently hitting shots from beyond the arc, think of it as the college hoops equivalent to the moment in Jurassic Park when the velociraptors learned how to open doors."

I have one question and one other comment about this article:

Question: Are this efficiency margins calculated based on adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency? I suspect that they are not, but don't know for sure. And Louisville has had an easier schedule than us so far in ACC play (with Pitt twice, BC, and Miami of note).
Comment: Those data fail to account for the fact that we played several games without Tre Jones, one game without Reddish, and half a game without Zion. And we had a slow start in the first game Jones came back.

Torvik has us as a full 3 points better in adjusted efficiency margin (0.5 better offensively and 2.5 better defensively) in his ratings over the last 10 games. And again, that's without key players for a good chunk of the schedule.

Kedsy
02-05-2019, 03:03 PM
Question: Are this efficiency margins calculated based on adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency? I suspect that they are not, but don't know for sure. And Louisville has had an easier schedule than us so far in ACC play (with Pitt twice, BC, and Miami of note).

Those numbers are definitely unadjusted. I'm a little surprised that Gasaway doesn't even mention that.

CDu
02-05-2019, 03:08 PM
Those numbers are definitely unadjusted. I'm a little surprised that Gasaway doesn't even mention that.

That's what I figured.

And I realize that Gasaway was meaning that as a compliment to Duke: saying how impressive Duke is in virtually every other aspect of the game in order to be as efficient than a team that has been a top-10 efficiency team nationally in conference play despite us not being able to shoot at all. But it's actually underselling it, as we've been even BETTER than Louisville over that stretch of time.

Kedsy
02-05-2019, 03:21 PM
That's what I figured.

And I realize that Gasaway was meaning that as a compliment to Duke: saying how impressive Duke is in virtually every other aspect of the game in order to be as efficient than a team that has been a top-10 efficiency team nationally in conference play despite us not being able to shoot at all. But it's actually underselling it, as we've been even BETTER than Louisville over that stretch of time.

Yeah, but the velociraptor line was pretty great.

uh_no
02-05-2019, 04:16 PM
Those numbers are definitely unadjusted. I'm a little surprised that Gasaway doesn't even mention that.

yeah... kind of invalidates the analysis

cptnflash
02-05-2019, 05:55 PM
The six game stretch that starts with Saturday's match-up with UVa will determine whether we have a shot to win the ACC regular season this year, and also go a long way towards determining whether we wind up with a #1 seed in the NCAAT. As ESPN points out in this article, it's the toughest six game stretch that any team will face this year, based on quality of opponent and location.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/25929578/can-duke-handle-college-basketball-toughest-6-game-stretch

I'd say par for the course would be a 4-2 record... 3-3 would feel like a disappointment and 5-1 would be fantastic. Anything outside of those 3 outcomes looks very unlikely.

BandAlum83
02-05-2019, 06:01 PM
The six game stretch that starts with Saturday's match-up with UVa will determine whether we have a shot to win the ACC regular season this year, and also go a long way towards determining whether we wind up with a #1 seed in the NCAAT. As ESPN points out in this article, it's the toughest six game stretch that any team will face this year, based on quality of opponent and location.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/25929578/can-duke-handle-college-basketball-toughest-6-game-stretch

I'd say par for the course would be a 4-2 record... 3-3 would feel like a disappointment and 5-1 would be fantastic. Anything outside of those 3 outcomes looks very unlikely.

C'mon, Flash! I'm going for the 6-0 outcome!

cptnflash
02-05-2019, 06:30 PM
C'mon, Flash! I'm going for the 6-0 outcome!

Me too! I think we're all hoping for that outcome! But there's roughly a 1 in 10 chance of that happening so I'm not getting my hopes up. I'll be more than happy with 5-1, which would mean we'd most likely be going into the last game of the regular season at 15-2 in conference and 27-3 overall. That would be a great position to be in too!

curtis325
02-05-2019, 09:25 PM
C'mon, Flash! I'm going for the 6-0 outcome!

I'll allow it!

uh_no
02-05-2019, 10:39 PM
With syracuse's loss to FSU tonight, they no longer control their own destiny.

11-7 is now the minimum record someone will have to win the title

(Note: i realize my previous analysis was using a 16 game schedule not 18...oops, so GT is really still alive.)

uh_no
02-09-2019, 09:13 PM
After today's slate of games, the biggest change is that uva no longer controls their own destiny, having no games remaining against duke (funny how that happened :D :D :D ) leaving just Duke and UNC controlling their own destiny. Assuming a win in all the other games (chortle) duke will win the regular season with a split vs UNC. If UNC also beats uva and wins out, I don't know the tiebreaker off the top of my head for the 1 seed, but we'd be co-champs. Given that duke unc and uva will have a really good chance of being 1-2-3, avoiding the others until the title game could be huge.

The minimum record to win the ACC is still 11-7. For that number to rise to 12, the group of syracuse, louisville, virginia, UNC and duke must collectively win 5 more games against teams not in that set (though could happen sooner if, say, duke and UNC pick up 3 collective wins against anyone). This could happen by a week from today.

Utley
02-10-2019, 11:05 AM
I came to the thread to ask the tiebreaker question you referenced here. If both UNC and us win out - other than splitting head to head - who gets the #1? Assuming UVA at 3, 1 vs 2 is a big difference.
After today's slate of games, the biggest change is that uva no longer controls their own destiny, having no games remaining against duke (funny how that happened :D :D :D ) leaving just Duke and UNC controlling their own destiny. Assuming a win in all the other games (chortle) duke will win the regular season with a split vs UNC. If UNC also beats uva and wins out, I don't know the tiebreaker off the top of my head for the 1 seed, but we'd be co-champs. Given that duke unc and uva will have a really good chance of being 1-2-3, avoiding the others until the title game could be huge.

The minimum record to win the ACC is still 11-7. For that number to rise to 12, the group of syracuse, louisville, virginia, UNC and duke must collectively win 5 more games against teams not in that set (though could happen sooner if, say, duke and UNC pick up 3 collective wins against anyone). This could happen by a week from today.

CDu
02-10-2019, 11:16 AM
I came to the thread to ask the tiebreaker question you referenced here. If both UNC and us win out - other than splitting head to head - who gets the #1? Assuming UVA at 3, 1 vs 2 is a big difference.

Then it would depend on whether Louisville beats out Syracuse in the rankings. If Louisville is on top, we get the #1. If Syracuse edges the Cards, UNC is #1.

In other words, tiebreaker comes down to record against the next best team. In that scenario, we would “tie” in the UVa comp. So it would go on down until we got to Louisville or Syracuse.

So, yeah, wouldn’t hurt to see UVa beat UNC.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-10-2019, 11:31 AM
Then it would depend on whether Louisville beats out Syracuse in the rankings. If Louisville is on top, we get the #1. If Syracuse edges the Cards, UNC is #1.

In other words, tiebreaker comes down to record against the next best team. In that scenario, we would “tie” in the UVa comp. So it would go on down until we got to Louisville or Syracuse.

So, yeah, wouldn’t hurt to see UVa beat UNC.

Would 2-0 against UVa not trump a theoretical 1-0 by the Cheats?

uh_no
02-10-2019, 11:35 AM
Would 2-0 against UVa not trump a theoretical 1-0 by the Cheats?

"best record" usually means %....so no.

CDu
02-10-2019, 11:36 AM
Would 2-0 against UVa not trump a theoretical 1-0 by the Cheats?


"best record" usually means %...so no.

Correct. The ACC sees no difference between 1-0 and 2-0 in terms of seeding. Nor do they see a difference between 0-1 and 0-2.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-10-2019, 11:50 AM
Correct. The ACC sees no difference between 1-0 and 2-0 in terms of seeding. Nor do they see a difference between 0-1 and 0-2.

So, the ACC is not really giving much credit for SOS within the conference. Ah yes, the curse of the SWOFF and scheduling.

Consider this: on the UVA UNC turn around, the Heels will be at home with a 54 hour turn around (roughly) while the Cavaliers will have 48 hour turnaround PLUS TRAVEL. That's almost half a day of awake time in a two day universe. Then you add travel to that... The Cheats are coming off a game against a kind of weak team (though UM was very good Sat) while the Hoos are coming off of their most emotional home game of the year.

TIME: Advantage the cheats
TRAVEL: Advantage the cheats
EMOTIONAL: all advantages point to the cheats.
CONF SCHEDULE? Advantage the cheats.

This is just part of why they're the Cheats.

uh_no
02-10-2019, 11:52 AM
So, the ACC is not really giving much credit for SOS within the conference. Ah yes, the curse of the SWOFF and scheduling.

Consider this: on the UVA UNC turn around, the Heels will be at home with a 54 hour turn around (roughly) while the Cavaliers will have 48 hour turnaround PLUS TRAVEL. The Cheats are coming off a game against a kind of weak team (though UM was very good Sat) while the Hoos are coming off of their most emotional home game of the year.

TIME: Advantage the cheats
TRAVEL: Advantage the cheats
EMOTIONAL: all advantages point to the cheats.

This is just part of why they're the Cheats.

yeah the saturday-monday tunrarounds are stupid. it's not a conspiracy, though. sometimes it works out in your favor, sometimes it doesn't. uva drew the short end of the stick on that one.

CDu
02-10-2019, 12:04 PM
yeah the saturday-monday tunrarounds are stupid. it's not a conspiracy, though. sometimes it works out in your favor, sometimes it doesn't. uva drew the short end of the stick on that one.

Yeah, I agree. Further, I can’t imagine why the conference (which is just the schools themselves) would be complicit in any conspiracy to favor any school. Swofford wouldn’t have lasted this long as commish if the ACC thought that scheduling was some sort of conspiracy to provide systematic benefit to UNC.

TruBlu
02-10-2019, 12:25 PM
So, the ACC is not really giving much credit for SOS within the conference. Ah yes, the curse of the SWOFF and scheduling.

Consider this: on the UVA UNC turn around, the Heels will be at home with a 54 hour turn around (roughly) while the Cavaliers will have 48 hour turnaround PLUS TRAVEL. That's almost half a day of awake time in a two day universe. Then you add travel to that... The Cheats are coming off a game against a kind of weak team (though UM was very good Sat) while the Hoos are coming off of their most emotional home game of the year.

TIME: Advantage the cheats
TRAVEL: Advantage the cheats
EMOTIONAL: all advantages point to the cheats.
CONF SCHEDULE? Advantage the cheats.

This is just part of why they're the Cheats.

STUDYING: Throw in the fact that the unc players will not attend any classes on Monday, nor do any homework (tutors might do some for them), and the UVA players will probably hit the books on the road and in their hotel rooms. Advantage cheats

uh_no
02-10-2019, 12:31 PM
STUDYING: Throw in the fact that the unc players will not attend any classes on Monday, nor do any homework (tutors might do some for them)

you act like monday is special or something....

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-10-2019, 12:34 PM
So, the ACC is not really giving much credit for SOS within the conference. Ah yes, the curse of the SWOFF and scheduling.

Consider this: on the UVA UNC turn around, the Heels will be at home with a 54 hour turn around (roughly) while the Cavaliers will have 48 hour turnaround PLUS TRAVEL. That's almost half a day of awake time in a two day universe. Then you add travel to that... The Cheats are coming off a game against a kind of weak team (though UM was very good Sat) while the Hoos are coming off of their most emotional home game of the year.

TIME: Advantage the cheats
TRAVEL: Advantage the cheats
EMOTIONAL: all advantages point to the cheats.
CONF SCHEDULE? Advantage the cheats.

This is just part of why they're the Cheats.

I suspect you are at least partly tongue in cheek, but I disagree about the emotional component. I think UVA is acutely aware of what back to back losses would do for their ACC seeding and NCAA profile. I expect them to throw the kitchen sink at UNC, and I see them as the superior team. I figure UVA wins by 8.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-10-2019, 01:00 PM
I suspect you are at least partly tongue in cheek, but I disagree about the emotional component. I think UVA is acutely aware of what back to back losses would do for their ACC seeding and NCAA profile. I expect them to throw the kitchen sink at UNC, and I see them as the superior team. I figure UVA wins by 8.

Yes indeed, partially tongue in cheek......but only partially........

As for the emotional, UVA can be acutely aware all they want to, but the turn around physically and emotionally is simply a lot more difficult for them to overcome than Carolina looking past an opponent and escaping....and sleeping at home while UVA travels. Coach K often talks about human nature and having to overcome it. Can it be done? Absolutely. But does human nature sometimes win out? Absolutely also.

I think the Cheats win this game....for the reasons I mentioned ....much as I hope for the other result.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-10-2019, 01:05 PM
yeah the saturday-monday tunrarounds are stupid. it's not a conspiracy, though. sometimes it works out in your favor, sometimes it doesn't. uva drew the short end of the stick on that one.

I'm sorry, but I don't buy that this turnaround advantage involves these three teams, and plays right into the hands of the Heels, simply by coincidence. I'm not normally one for conspiracy theories at all, but I've noticed this kind of thing happening to the Heels' advantage an awful lot for many years. I've seen it work in Duke's favor, but not nearly as often as it helps the Cheats.

And this was not just UVa drawing the short end...this is Duke having a competitive disadvantage versus the Heels (per the ACC reg season) simply due to scheduling quirks. Screwy scheduling and screwy seeding always impacts more than just the two teams in question. This is not just Duke having two games versus UVA versus one for Carolina, it's having Carolina having that single game at home with UVa on a short turn around from emotional game.

Bob Green
02-10-2019, 01:11 PM
...and sleeping at home while UVA travels.

UVa isn't changing time zones or flying to a different continent. It is a 3 hour and 15 minute bus ride from Charlottesville to Chapel Hill.

While I dislike the Saturday - Monday turnaround, travel is not an issue in this instance.

uh_no
02-10-2019, 01:24 PM
I'm sorry, but I don't buy that this turnaround advantage involves these three teams, and plays right into the hands of the Heels, simply by coincidence. I'm not normally one for conspiracy theories at all, but I've noticed this kind of thing happening to the Heels' advantage an awful lot for many years. I've seen it work in Duke's favor, but not nearly as often as it helps the Cheats.

And this was not just UVa drawing the short end...this is Duke having a competitive disadvantage versus the Heels (per the ACC reg season) simply due to scheduling quirks. Screwy scheduling and screwy seeding always impacts more than just the two teams in question. This is not just Duke having two games versus UVA versus one for Carolina, it's having Carolina having that single game at home with UVa on a short turn around from emotional game.

This is a classic bias. You think it happens more often because you're more likely to remember when the cheats benefit than duke. If you'd like to go year by year and provide the data, I'd be happy to reconsider.

That said, in SOME cases, there may be an argument...it's more likely to happen to duke than UVA, for example, since duke will almost always have a more difficult schedule overall, having to play UNC twice a year. The same cannot be said for duke over UNC, though, as UNC plays duke twice a year.

ndkjr70
02-10-2019, 01:24 PM
The unbalanced ACC schedule is obnoxious, but hinting at the scheduling being part of some ulterior pro-UNC bias seems..... silly.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-10-2019, 01:26 PM
UVa isn't changing time zones or flying to a different continent. It is a 3 hour and 15 minute bus ride from Charlottesville to Chapel Hill.

While I dislike the Saturday - Monday turnaround, travel is not an issue in this instance.

I would beg to differ, even if just a little. Sunday is rest day for the Heels. Sunday is travel day for the Hoos. There is no rest day for the Hoos. A 3 hour bus ride is not particularly restful. It's not like flying halfway across the country, but when your only rest day is a travel day, on a bus...I think it becomes a factor that works with the other factors I mentioned.

bigperm13
02-10-2019, 01:59 PM
I wish all Cheats games were at noon on Saturdays because they are pretty bad in those games. Hope they get that draw in the NCAA tournament assuming a win in their first round game (obviously a first round loss would be awesome).

jhmoss1812
02-10-2019, 02:20 PM
yeah the saturday-monday tunrarounds are stupid. it's not a conspiracy, though. sometimes it works out in your favor, sometimes it doesn't. uva drew the short end of the stick on that one.

We have 3 of them coming up in the next few weeks. Each of the Monday games is on the road. That's pretty brutal.

Duke, @ UNC

ND, @ VT

Pitt, @ Cuse

MChambers
02-10-2019, 02:36 PM
We have 3 of them coming up in the next few weeks. Each of the Monday games is on the road. That's pretty brutal.

Duke, @ UNC

ND, @ VT

Pitt, @ Cuse

That is ridiculous.

-jk
02-10-2019, 02:49 PM
UVa isn't changing time zones or flying to a different continent. It is a 3 hour and 15 minute bus ride from Charlottesville to Chapel Hill.

While I dislike the Saturday - Monday turnaround, travel is not an issue in this instance.

2:45, tops. Unless you get caught in traffic...

Done it dozens of times!

-jk

Wahoo2000
02-10-2019, 03:09 PM
UVa isn't changing time zones or flying to a different continent. It is a 3 hour and 15 minute bus ride from Charlottesville to Chapel Hill.

While I dislike the Saturday - Monday turnaround, travel is not an issue in this instance.

Excepting maybe for a dude with a sore back having to sit up in a charter bus seat for 3+ hours. Coming off of 37 minutes chasing around Barrett, having a sore/stiff back, then sitting on a bus for hours, then having to chase around White/Williams/Johnson? Not feeling great about Jerome's prospects for a big game.

fuse
02-10-2019, 03:20 PM
I forget which conference does the mid season reschedule.
If we are going to continue to play an imbalanced schedule, count me in favour of going through a round 1, and then scheduling the second half of the season according to first half results.

duke2x
02-10-2019, 03:37 PM
The ACC rule was supposed to be Sat early at home, Mon night. That rule has been disregarded twice this year. Duke had to fly back from FSU before Syracuse, and UVA had a Sat. night home game. This is actually better than what the ACC used to do with Thur 9PM/Sat noon games or Th/Sat/Tu weeks.

Bart Torvik still puts UVA at a 62% chance of winning. I think that's low, but it's obviously not a 80-90% game.

tbyers11
02-10-2019, 03:41 PM
We have 3 of them coming up in the next few weeks. Each of the Monday games is on the road. That's pretty brutal.

Duke, @ UNC

ND, @ VT

Pitt, @ Cuse

I recall an article stating that Sat-Mon turnarounds should not involve teams that have to play both games at home or both games on the road. If each team has one game home and one game away that should at least balance the scales a bit. That being said I think playing the second leg on the road if more difficult than playing the first leg on the road. Much harder to have your normal day after recovery/game planning while traveling. That schedule is rough for the Hoos.

Also, did that home/road split actually play out? Of the 16 instances of teams playing in Big Monday this season, 14 have home/away. 2 teams have home/home: 1) ND had UVA@home before playing Duke@home and 2)UNC played Miami@home yesterday before playing UVA@home tomorrow.

I admit that rigging the schedule is impossible with 15 teams and 18 games. The logistics to make it all work out preclude any weird stuff. However in terms of Big Monday that's a one-off (or 3) against UVA and a one-off for UNC

AustinDevil
02-10-2019, 06:05 PM
I admit that rigging the schedule is impossible with 15 teams and 18 games. The logistics to make it all work out preclude any weird stuff. However in terms of Big Monday that's a one-off (or 3) against UVA and a one-off for UNC

Rigging the schedule within a single season, perhaps.

Rigging drawing the long straw on more key schedule elements than not, over years, is not impossible.

I do not think the ACC is rigging anything, however.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-10-2019, 06:34 PM
Excepting maybe for a dude with a sore back having to sit up in a charter bus seat for 3+ hours. Coming off of 37 minutes chasing around Barrett, having a sore/stiff back, then sitting on a bus for hours, then having to chase around White/Williams/Johnson? Not feeling great about Jerome's prospects for a big game.

And the bus ride is only part of a perfect storm against Virginia in this case (in favor of the Cheats), which I think some people are missing here.
Consider:
6 hour turn around advantage (noon start versus 6 pm start on Saturday)
3 hour bus ride advantage (riding a bus is NOT restful)
That's 9 hours of improved rest and recovery out of only maybe 30 waking hours. That is significant even for college athletes.
Plus the emotional toll of a Duke game, which is much more than the emotional toll of a Miami game.

I don't think the Hoos win Monnday...hope to be wrong, but I just don't see it, especially with Diakite and Jerome.

As for rigging, I don't know that I really think it's going on, but over the years the Heels seem to get a few of these.....and it doesn't require rigging 15 teams.....only a few. It would not be hard at all to do, and it would not be hard to deny either.

gofurman
02-10-2019, 10:17 PM
Excepting maybe for a dude with a sore back having to sit up in a charter bus seat for 3+ hours. Coming off of 37 minutes chasing around Barrett, having a sore/stiff back, then sitting on a bus for hours, then having to chase around White/Williams/Johnson? Not feeling great about Jerome's prospects for a big game.

So Jerome has a sore back?

Is there something with another player too? Diakate?

devildeac
02-11-2019, 09:17 AM
So Jerome has a sore back?

Is there something with another player too? Diakate?

Diakite bumped heads with a teammate on the perimeter about 10-15 minutes into the game and was on the floor for several minutes. I don't think he re-entered the game.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-11-2019, 11:49 AM
Diakite bumped heads with a teammate on the perimeter about 10-15 minutes into the game and was on the floor for several minutes. I don't think he re-entered the game.

He did not re enter the game, and Bennett was kind of skirting around the issue in post game, not wanting to use the "C" word.

uh_no
02-11-2019, 08:58 PM
the biggest implication of tonights game is that we likely now own the tiebreaker over UNC and UVA.

UVA by virtue of our h2h
UNC (assuming we at least split) by virtue of their loss to uva (assuming UVA finishes third in the conference)

UNC now no longer controls their own destiny for a 1 seed, losing the tiebreaker to UVA.

uh_no
02-14-2019, 01:49 PM
no big changes after the full slate of weekday games. clemson and NCSU are technically still alive, everyone below them is eliminated from even a share of the regular season.

Things get dicey this weekend, as clemson and NCSU losses would eliminate them from 1 seed contention, and assuming UNC beats WF, the minimum best record would move to 12-6, eliminating them from a share of the regular season.

uh_no
02-17-2019, 01:46 PM
there are some status changes after yesterday's slate of games:

- with Duke and UNC's wins, the minimum record to win the ACC has moved to 12-6 which means
- NCSU and Clemson would have been eliminated from winning outright, or 1 seed contention anyway, but given their losses, they are eliminated from everything

This leaves 7 teams still alive, and still only duke controlling it's own destiny. Realistically, though, only 3 teams are alive.

JasonEvans
02-18-2019, 09:00 AM
Syracuse is about to enter the really tough stretch of their schedule. Though the Orange stand at 8-4 and seem to be in the race for a top 4 seed, the reality is that they will likely be favored in no more than 1 or 2 of their remaining games and, if I had to guess, I would expect them to finish 9-9 or 10-8.

Syracuse, UNC, and Va Tech have the three more difficult remaining schedules in the ACC. Meanwhile, NC State and FSU have relatively easy slates left. State should be favored in all their remaining games except the game at FSU and the Seminoles only remaining really tough test is at UNC. I won't be entirely shocked if FSU manages to pass Carolina for the #3 seed in the conference.

-Jason "if FSU manages to beat Carolina in Chapel Hill, I think the Noles will get the #3 seed" Evans

uh_no
02-21-2019, 12:50 AM
Duke still fortunately controls their own destiny to the 1 seed, however they can only guarantee a split of the regular season with UVA.

The tiebreaker scenarios are as follows:

duke + uva = Duke
unc + uva = duke
Duke + UNC = UNC if UNC wins the other game, duke with a split
UNC + UVA + Duke = Duke with a split, UNC if UNC sweeps

If UVA wins at UL on saturday, it's highly likely they'll finish 16-2, making any tiebreaker scenario where UNC sweeps duke (requiring UNC to lose some other game) extremely likely, as Duke and UNC would be 15-3 in that case. What that means is that IF duke is in a tiebreaker scenario for the 1 seed, they will almost assuredly win it.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-21-2019, 11:37 AM
Duke still fortunately controls their own destiny to the 1 seed, however they can only guarantee a split of the regular season with UVA.

The tiebreaker scenarios are as follows:

duke + uva = Duke
unc + uva = duke
Duke + UNC = UNC if UNC wins the other game, duke with a split
UNC + UVA + Duke = Duke with a split, UNC if UNC sweeps

If UVA wins at UL on saturday, it's highly likely they'll finish 16-2, making any tiebreaker scenario where UNC sweeps duke (requiring UNC to lose some other game) extremely likely, as Duke and UNC would be 15-3 in that case. What that means is that IF duke is in a tiebreaker scenario for the 1 seed, they will almost assuredly win it.

So, if I am reading your chart right, if UNC and UVA tie at the top, the top seed goes to Duke?

Curious

uh_no
02-21-2019, 11:38 AM
So, if I am reading your chart right, if UNC and UVA tie at the top, the top seed goes to Duke?

Curious

oh crap. lol.

No UVa wins in that case :D :D

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
02-21-2019, 08:11 PM
oh crap. lol.

No UVa wins in that case :D :D

I figured. Just good natured fun.

uh_no
02-23-2019, 02:08 PM
with their loss, UL is eliminated from 1 seed contention. They can still tie for the regular season, but lose all tiebreakers.If UNC and Duke win tonight, they are completely eliminated. VT is in the same boat.

duke2x
02-23-2019, 09:07 PM
The ACC regular season race is basically going to come down to the Duke @ UNC game. UVA @ Syracuse, UNC-Syracuse, UNC @ Clemson, and Duke @VT are possible upsets, but I think the underdogs do lose those. Duke is the only team that controls its own destiny for the #1 overall seed.

I think Duke has the #6 seed overall guaranteed. I think a win over VT guarantees the double bye.

uh_no
02-23-2019, 09:09 PM
with Duke and UNC winning, the minimum record to win the regular season is now 13-5. This means Louisville is eliminated from contention, and the top 3 are the only ones who can yet win the ACC outright.

In terms of the 1 seed, obviously the top 3 are in the mix.

VT is ALSO still in the mix. They need to win out, hope duke's lone remaining win comes across UNC, and hope that UVA loses out. VT at that point would split the title with Duke, and would hold the tiebreaker, getting the 1 seed.

FSU is NOT in the mix for the 1 seed as they lose the tiebreaker to all the top teams and cannot be in a tiebreaker scenario with VT as well as those teams.

Syracuse IS in the mix. Were they to win out, they would be 13-5. If UNC were to beat duke, they would have the tiebreaker over UNC. If Duke were to beat UNC, then it would go to record over the second place teams, which Syracuse would win as they'd have an undefeated record against UVA and UNC. There are some nutso scenarios where someone ELSE is in the mix for second place, but i won't enumerate them here.

So:
control destiny for 1 seed: Duke
Control destiny for regular season: Duke, UVA, UNC
In contention to win outright: duke, UVA, UNc
control destiny to win outright: no-one
Still can grasp a share for reglar season: Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Syracuse, FSU
Still can get the 1 seed: Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Syracuse

Despite popular belief, duke is STILL not guaranteed a double Bye.

Consider:
syracuse wins out: 13-5
VT wins out: 13-5
uva wins 1 more game against anyone: 13+
UNC beats duke: 13+
(Note: FSU could win out instead of VT and the result is the same)

Duke needs 1 more win to clinch the double bye. By the same logic, NOBODY has yet clinched a double bye as there are still 6 teams in contention to reach 13 wins, and only a strong guarantee that one of them will (duke or UNC)

jv001
02-23-2019, 09:17 PM
with Duke and UNC winning, the minimum record to win the regular season is now 13-5. This means Louisville is eliminated from contention, and the top 3 are the only ones who can yet win the ACC outright.

In terms of the 1 seed, obviously the top 3 are in the mix.

VT is ALSO still in the mix. They need to win out, hope duke's lone remaining win comes across UNC, and hope that UVA loses out. VT at that point would split the title with Duke, and would hold the tiebreaker, getting the 1 seed.

FSU is NOT in the mix for the 1 seed as they lose the tiebreaker to all the top teams and cannot be in a tiebreaker scenario with VT as well as those teams.

Syracuse IS in the mix. Were they to win out, they would be 13-5. If UNC were to beat duke, they would have the tiebreaker over UNC. If Duke were to beat UNC, then it would go to record over the second place teams, which Syracuse would win as they'd have an undefeated record against UVA and UNC. There are some nutso scenarios where someone ELSE is in the mix for second place, but i won't enumerate them here.

So:
control destiny for 1 seed: Duke
Control destiny for regular season: Duke, UVA, UNC
In contention to win outright: duke, UVA, UNc
control destiny to win outright: no-one
Still can grasp a share for reglar season: Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Syracuse, FSU
Still can get the 1 seed: Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Syracuse

Despite popular belief, duke is STILL not guaranteed a double Bye.

Consider:
syracuse wins out: 13-5
VT wins out: 13-5
uva wins 1 more game against anyone: 13+
UNC beats duke: 13+
(Note: FSU could win out instead of VT and the result is the same)

Duke needs 1 more win to clinch the double bye. By the same logic, NOBODY has yet clinched a double bye as there are still 6 teams in contention to reach 13 wins, and only a strong guarantee that one of them will (duke or UNC)

I will say this and not worry about a jinx. We will beat Wake. Whoa, I just remember we seem to shoot better on the road. Well, I still say we beat Wake for the double bye, if we need the win. GoDuke!

uh_no
02-25-2019, 06:39 PM
only relevant imoact from THIS game is FSU is eliminated from regular season contention with a loss.

uh_no
02-25-2019, 10:00 PM
only relevant imoact from THIS game is FSU is eliminated from regular season contention with a loss.

FSU is still alive, until likely the end of the week.

As a diversion, assuming duke unc, and UVA are the top 3 seeds (in some order):

the current minimum record for the last bye is 11-7. This means that everyone through NCSU is technically still alive. For NCSU to snag the 4 seed the following needs to happen:

NCSU wins out, putting them at 11-7

UL finishes < 1-2
cuse finishes < 2-2 (NCSU has the tiebreaker)
FSU beats VT and then loses to wake. This gives NCSU the tiebreaker over them (they do not have it over VT)
VT loses out

FWIW FSU is in the driver's seat for the last double-bye, with wins over UL and Syracuse, and games yet against state and VT.

VT has lost to UL
cuse hase lost to VT and FSU, so is almost assuredly out of it...plus they have a rough schedule to bring it home
UL has lost to cuse and FSU

So FSU beating VT ALMOST locks it up as they'll have all the tie breaks.

If VT beats them, it's a BIT more interesting If FSU, VT, and UL all get there, UL gets it due to their win over UNC.

One of the interesting ones is a tiebreaker between Syracuse, UL, and VT. They. Cuse is 1-1 vs Duke, and everyone else is 0-1. So if Duke finishes ahead of UNC, cuse wins the tiebreak. if UNC finishes ahead of duke, UL wins it. If UNC and Duke are tied in the standings, then VT is eliminated (assuming duke wins this week) since they are the only ones without a win against either of those teams. Then cuse wins it head to head over UL.

In such a scenario, if VT were to beat duke, then VT has the tiebreaker if duke is ahead. UL has the tiebreaker if UNC is ahead, and if they are tied, we go to the record against the SEVENTH place team (the next best record after the three tied teams). this could be a lot of different teams.

uh_no
02-27-2019, 12:47 AM
obviously a not-so-happy update after tonight

-with their loss, duke no longer controls their own destiny. Only UVA does, and at that, only to a share of the title
-syracuse is eliminated from contention for the regular season and a 1 seed
-VT is eliminated from contention for the 1 seed. UNC wins any tiebreaker involving VT

With syracuse' loss, duke has STILL not clinched the double bye. the scenarios that can see duke being the 5 seed are bolded. I believe this is an exhaustive list of all 3+ team combinations involving duke. Aside from this, there is also the obvious case where FSU wins out, and the hokies finish at 12-6 with duke.

3 team Combinations with Duke and VT
-Duke, VT, FSU
-- if VT beats FSU, VT is 2-0 in the round robin in this case, gets the 3 seed. Duke is 1-1 and gets the 4 seed
-- if FSU beats VT, they're each 1-1 in the round robin. Duke gets the 3 seed, and FSU gets the 4

-duke VT syracuse - duke is 1-2, VT is 2-0, cuse is 1-2 VT gets the 3, duke gets the 4 over syracuse due to their record against UVA

-duke VT UL - duke is 1-1, VT is 1-1, UL is 1-1. If UVA finishes outright leaders, Duke gets the 3 and UL gets the 4. If UNC finishes outright leaders, UL gets the 3, VT gets the 4, if UNC and UVA are tied in record, the Duke gets the 3 and UL gets the 4

3 team combinations with duke and FSU, not including VT
-Duke FSU syracuse - duke is 2-1, FSU is 1-1, Syracuse is 1-2. Duke gets the 3, FSU gets the 4

-duke fsu UL - duke is 2-0, FSU is 1-1, UL is 02. Duke gets the 3, FSU gets the 4

3 team combinatinos with duke and UL, not including VT and FSU
-duke UL Syracuse - duke is 2-1, UL is 0-2, syracuse is 2-1. UL Duke gets the 3 due to their record against UVA

4 team combinations
-duke VT fsu syracuse -
-- if FSU beats VT duke is 2-2, VT is 2-1, fsu is 2-1, syracuse is 1-3, FSU gets the 3, VT gets the 4. Duke gets the 5
-- if VT beats FSU, duke is 2-2, VT is 3-0, FSU is 1-2, syracuse is 1-3. VT gets the 4, duke gets the 4.

-duke vt fsu UL
--if FSU beats VT - duke is 2-1, VT is 1-2, FSU is 2-1, UL is 1-2. Duke gets the 3, fsu gets the 4
--if VT beats FSU - duke is 2-1, VT is 2-1, FSU is 1-2, UL is 1-2. VT gets the 3, duke gets the 4

-duke vt syracuse UL - duke is 2-2, vt is 2-1, UL is 1-2, cuse is 2-2. VT gets the 3 seed, duke gets the 4

-duke fsu syracuse UL - duke is 3-1, fsu is 2-1, cuse is 2-2, UL is 0-3. Duke getes the 3 seed, fsu gets the 4

5 team combinations
-duke vt fsu syracuse ul
--if FSU beats VT - duke is 3-2, vt is 2-2, fsu is 3-1, cuse is 2-3, UL is 1-3. FSU gets the 3 seed. duke gets the 4
--if VT beats FSU duke is 3-2, vt is 3-1, fsu is 2-2, cuse is 2-3, UL is 1-3. VT gets the 3 seed, duke gets the 4



So it would be HARD for duke to miss out on the double bye, as it also involves them losing out.

Please feel free to correct if you find an error. that's a lot of scenarios.

CDu
02-27-2019, 10:10 AM
To distill it down to simple terms:
- Win 1 game and we're assured of the double bye
- Win 2 games and we're assured of at least the 3 seed
- Win 3 games and we're assured of at least the 2 seed

dukelifer
02-27-2019, 10:17 AM
To distill it down to simple terms:
- Win 1 game and we're assured of the double bye
- Win 2 games and we're assured of at least the 3 seed
- Win 3 games and we're assured of at least the 2 seed

Maybe better as a 4 than a three. Duke seems to match up better with UVA. But looks like another showdown with UNC should UVa win out.

wgl1228
02-27-2019, 10:18 AM
So our only shot at winning regular season is if we win out and UVA loses a game correct? UVA will beat GT and Pitt at home this week, but maybe Cuse or Louisville can beat them next week.

CDu
02-27-2019, 10:20 AM
So our only shot at winning regular season is if we win out and UVA loses a game correct? UVA will beat GT and Pitt at home this week, but maybe Cuse or Louisville can beat them next week.

More or less correct. If we win out, we'll need UVa to lose once more. That would give us a share (at least a 3-way, if not 2-way) of the ACC regular season and the #1 seed.

There are scenarios in which we could lose once and still win the ACC regular season, but they are fairly unlikely. Basically, the most realistic scenario would be us winning 2 of 3, including a win at UNC. Then we'd need UVa to lose to both Louisville and Syracuse, and we'd need UNC to lose @Clemson.

ndkjr70
02-27-2019, 10:20 AM
To distill it down to simple terms:
- Win 1 game and we're assured of the double bye
- Win 2 games and we're assured of at least the 3 seed
- Win 3 games and we're assured of at least the 2 seed

UVA plays two cupcakes, and then has a game @ Syracuse and home against Louisville.

The fact that they avoided playing @FSU and @UNC really stinks for us. I wonder if a team has ever won the ACC outright even though they got swept by another conference opponent.

Unbalanced schedules are the dumbest thing in the world.

There's very little difference, for me, between the 2 and the 3 seed; though I would prefer to not play a 6-or-7 seed Louisville with revenge on their mind.

DarkstarWahoo
02-27-2019, 10:22 AM
UVA plays two cupcakes, and then has a game @ Syracuse and home against Louisville.

The fact that they avoided playing @FSU and @UNC really stinks for us. I wonder if a team has ever won the ACC outright even though they got swept by another conference opponent.

Unbalanced schedules are the dumbest thing in the world.

There's very little difference, for me, between the 2 and the 3 seed; though I would prefer to not play a 6-or-7 seed Louisville with revenge on their mind.

Hoos won at UNC. We didn't get them at home.

CDu
02-27-2019, 10:23 AM
UVA plays two cupcakes, and then has a game @ Syracuse and home against Louisville.

The fact that they avoided playing @FSU and @UNC really stinks for us. I wonder if a team has ever won the ACC outright even though they got swept by another conference opponent.

Unbalanced schedules are the dumbest thing in the world.

There's very little difference, for me, between the 2 and the 3 seed; though I would prefer to not play a 6-or-7 seed Louisville with revenge on their mind.

UVa actually DID play at UNC. They didn't get to play UNC at home.

jv001
02-27-2019, 10:24 AM
UVA plays two cupcakes, and then has a game @ Syracuse and home against Louisville.

The fact that they avoided playing @FSU and @UNC really stinks for us. I wonder if a team has ever won the ACC outright even though they got swept by another conference opponent.

Unbalanced schedules are the dumbest thing in the world.

There's very little difference, for me, between the 2 and the 3 seed; though I would prefer to not play a 6-or-7 seed Louisville with revenge on their mind.

For some reason, I thought the Hoos had to play at the cheats on short rest. There was some arguing about whether the travel to Chapel Hell was tough on them. GoDuke!


CDu was once again too quick with his fingers.

CDu
02-27-2019, 10:25 AM
For some reason, I thought the Hoos had to play at the cheats on short rest. There was some arguing about whether the travel to Chapel Hell was tough on them. GoDuke!

Yes. The Hoos played at Chapel Hill less than two days after playing at home against us, with both Jerome and Diakite being limited by injury. They managed to overcome those injuries and the "grueling" 3-hour bus trip to get the win on the road.

ndkjr70
02-27-2019, 11:55 AM
Hoos won at UNC. We didn't get them at home.

Ah, I knew that. Still, my point was they only played UNC once and only played FSU at home. That stinks for Duke. And I think it's ridiculous that the ACC still can't figure out how to have a balanced conference schedule.

CDu
02-27-2019, 11:59 AM
And I think it's ridiculous that the ACC still can't figure out how to have a balanced conference schedule.

Well, the only way for that to happen is to have a 28-game ACC regular season. Which would mean virtually no out of conference games, as the NCAA has a limit on games played in a season. And even still I'd imagine folks would complain about when the games against certain teams were scheduled. With an 18-game conference schedule limit, there's virtually no way to account for all possible permutations of unbalance.

akg4y
02-27-2019, 12:07 PM
Ah, I knew that. Still, my point was they only played UNC once and only played FSU at home. That stinks for Duke. And I think it's ridiculous that the ACC still can't figure out how to have a balanced conference schedule.


We also had to play a full strength Duke twice, the team that just beat you twice, the team that was leading by 25 against you twice, and the other team that just beat you on the road two nights after playing you. We don't get two games against Wake Forest. Tell me again about the unbalanced schedule?

The unbalanced schedule talk is just excuses by whichever team ends up second or third. If anything UNC had the easiest schedule of anyone... But just win the games you're supposed to and it doesn't matter.

DarkstarWahoo
02-27-2019, 12:18 PM
Ah, I knew that. Still, my point was they only played UNC once and only played FSU at home. That stinks for Duke. And I think it's ridiculous that the ACC still can't figure out how to have a balanced conference schedule.

FSU was home-only, yes, but literally every other decent-to-good ACC team - Chapel Hill, Syracuse, NC State, Clemson - was road-only for UVA if they didn’t play them twice (Duke, VT, Louisville). They’ve got three Saturday-Monday turnarounds with all three Monday games on the road. It’s a tough schedule no matter how you slice it. The only way to remedy the minor imbalance you describe is to have Duke not play UNC twice (LOL) or have UVA play them twice every year (which I’d love to see).

I’ve posted this elsewhere here, but based on the future ACC schedules that have been released, out of the five schools that appear most likely to sustain success moving forward - UVA, Duke, UNC, Syracuse and Louisville - only Cuse doesn’t have one of the other five as a permanent partner. That’s the imbalance to watch moving forward.

ndkjr70
02-27-2019, 12:29 PM
We also had to play a full strength Duke twice, the team that just beat you twice, the team that was leading by 25 against you twice, and the other team that just beat you on the road two nights after playing you. We don't get two games against Wake Forest. Tell me again about the unbalanced schedule?

The unbalanced schedule talk is just excuses by whichever team ends up second or third. If anything UNC had the easiest schedule of anyone... But just win the games you're supposed to and it doesn't matter.


I agree that UNC had the easiest schedule. I think UVA is a fantastic basketball team. I'm disappointed because UNC/UVA played eachother once. Had they played eachother twice, Duke would likely control it's destiny for the ACC Regular Season title (assuming a split). At the very least, it would've handed UNC another loss and cemented them behind Duke in the battle for a 1-seed in the NCAAs.

Duke has been on the good-side of this coin a few times (last year, I think was one of those times). It's just frustrating. And I'm airing those frustrations on a Duke Basketball Message Board.

Stray Gator
02-27-2019, 12:49 PM
We also had to play a full strength Duke twice . . . .

Actually, I'm pretty sure that when Virginia played at Duke, the Blue Devils were not at full strength.

akg4y
02-27-2019, 01:19 PM
I agree that UNC had the easiest schedule. I think UVA is a fantastic basketball team. I'm disappointed because UNC/UVA played eachother once. Had they played eachother twice, Duke would likely control it's destiny for the ACC Regular Season title (assuming a split). At the very least, it would've handed UNC another loss and cemented them behind Duke in the battle for a 1-seed in the NCAAs.

Duke has been on the good-side of this coin a few times (last year, I think was one of those times). It's just frustrating. And I'm airing those frustrations on a Duke Basketball Message Board.


But that's the thing you're only looking at what would help Duke but not at what *did* help Duke, which is the two cupcake games against Wake. At full strength most people here would agree I think that the order of the top 5 ACC teams is Duke, UVA, UNC, VT, Louisville.

Duke had/has to play 2 & 3 twice, 4 & 5 on the road. That's six games and the seventh was an extra game against Wake, one of the 2 worst teams in the ACC.

UVA had/has to play 1, 4, & 5 twice and 3 on the road for their 7 games.

Those are hardly different, if anything one could argue that UVAs was harder even with only one game against UNC. Difference is just that as of now we have only lost to the one team above us.

More important than the schedule differences is just that you've had injuries. I have no doubt you beat both UNC and VT if Zion was playing.

CDu
02-27-2019, 01:24 PM
More important than the schedule differences is just that you've had injuries. I have no doubt you beat both UUNC and VT if Zion was playing.

Agree with your take on the schedules. I'd also note that we'd have no doubt beaten Syracuse if Reddish and Jones had played. I feel even more strongly about that than about beating UNC if Zion had played, actually.

jv001
02-27-2019, 01:32 PM
Agree with your take on the schedules. I'd also note that we'd have no doubt beaten Syracuse if Reddish and Jones had played. I feel even more strongly about that than about beating UNC if Zion had played, actually.

I think the cheat game at Chapel Hell is going to be hard for Duke to win even if Zion plays. I think he'll have to get rid of the rust from not playing. There's practice and then there's game speed. That's one reason, I think our bench doesn't contribute many points when called upon. But I have little doubt that we beat Cuse with Cam and Tre. GoDuke!

CDu
02-27-2019, 01:40 PM
I think the cheat game at Chapel Hell is going to be hard for Duke to win even if Zion plays. I think he'll have to get rid of the rust from not playing. There's practice and then there's game speed. That's one reason, I think our bench doesn't contribute many points when called upon. But I have little doubt that we beat Cuse with Cam and Tre. GoDuke!

I think it is too bad that Zion didn't get to play more in the UNC game. One of UNC's advantages is that they play a style that is not replicated by anyone else we face. I think that - along with the Zion injury - made for a tougher game, as our guys weren't ready for the UNC approach. At least everyone else will be ready. But Zion won't have had that game's worth of experience at that pace and with their relentless effort on the glass.

I'm hopeful that Zion will play either Saturday or against Wake before the UNC game, though. That would help shake off the rust. But he'll still be dealing with the "first time he's faced UNC" issue.

UrinalCake
02-27-2019, 02:22 PM
I posted this in another thread, but feel like it bears repeating. The conference matchups, with teams shown from top to bottom of the ACC standings:


CHeats UVA Duke
CHeats: - R x2
UVA: H - x2
Duke: x2 x2 -
VT: H x2 R
FSU: H H R
Cuse: H R x2
Lville: x2 x2 R
NCSU: x2 R H
Clemson: R R H
BC: R R H
Miami: x2 H H
GT: R H H
Wake: R H x2
ND: H x2 R
Pitt: R H R

Of the top six teams other than us, the CHeats play each of them once and at home. Meanwhile, all of our home-only matchups are against the bottom of the conference.

I haven't given up hope of us winning the regular season. Win out and hope UVA takes a loss. Their game at Syracuse will be a borefest in the 40's and the outcome could totally swing off of a single made three. Louisville has the talent to beat them as well. It really helps that we hold the tie breaker over UVA (which means we indirectly have it over UNC as well, because if we tie with them then it comes down to each team's record against UVA).

Rich
02-27-2019, 03:23 PM
We also had to play a full strength Duke twice, the team that just beat you twice, the team that was leading by 25 against you twice, and the other team that just beat you on the road two nights after playing you. We don't get two games against Wake Forest. Tell me again about the unbalanced schedule?

For the life of me I couldn't figure out who you were talking about. If you're a fan of another school, there should be a rule that your username includes the name or nickname of that school. Or you should have to wear a bell or something.

uh_no
02-27-2019, 03:26 PM
I posted this in another thread, but feel like it bears repeating. The conference matchups, with teams shown from top to bottom of the ACC standings:


CHeats UVA Duke
CHeats: - R x2
UVA: H - x2
Duke: x2 x2 -
VT: H x2 R
FSU: H H R
Cuse: H R x2
Lville: x2 x2 R
NCSU: x2 R H
Clemson: R R H
BC: R R H
Miami: x2 H H
GT: R H H
Wake: R H x2
ND: H x2 R
Pitt: R H R

Of the top six teams other than us, the CHeats play each of them once and at home. Meanwhile, all of our home-only matchups are against the bottom of the conference.

I haven't given up hope of us winning the regular season. Win out and hope UVA takes a loss. Their game at Syracuse will be a borefest in the 40's and the outcome could totally swing off of a single made three. Louisville has the talent to beat them as well. It really helps that we hold the tie breaker over UVA (which means we indirectly have it over UNC as well, because if we tie with them then it comes down to each team's record against UVA).

There is an extremely unlikely scenario in which we don't. If UNC beats duke, and loses out otherwise, and all 3 teams end up tied at 14-4, UNC would be the 1 seed, UVA would be the 2 seed, and duke the 3.

DUKIE V(A)
02-27-2019, 03:28 PM
The unbalanced schedule talk is just excuses by whichever team ends up second or third. If anything UNC had the easiest schedule of anyone... But just win the games you're supposed to and it doesn't matter.

So you're saying if Duke goes undefeated it doesn't matter? I guess I can agree with you.:rolleyes::o

DarkstarWahoo
02-27-2019, 03:31 PM
For the life of me I couldn't figure out who you were talking about. If you're a fan of another school, there should be a rule that your username includes the name or nickname of that school. Or you should have to wear a bell or something.

His handle is his UVA email address. Initials, random number, random letter. I would never expect non-Wahoos to know that, but if you went to UVA in the email era, it's tantamount to having the V-sabres tattooed on your forehead.

Kjeffrey
02-27-2019, 08:10 PM
We also had to play a full strength Duke twice, the team that just beat you twice, the team that was leading by 25 against you twice, and the other team that just beat you on the road two nights after playing you. We don't get two games against Wake Forest. Tell me again about the unbalanced schedule?

The unbalanced schedule talk is just excuses by whichever team ends up second or third. If anything UNC had the easiest schedule of anyone... But just win the games you're supposed to and it doesn't matter.

Maybe I'm misreading this post but what team beat Duke twice?

Also, Duke's schedule includes two games against Wake but UVA had two games against ND. I'm pretty sure ND is below Wake in the standings.

Ever since the league expanded there has been an unbalanced schedule. That's not an excuse just a reality.

DarkstarWahoo
02-27-2019, 08:13 PM
Maybe I'm misreading this post but what team beat Duke twice?

Also, Duke's schedule includes two games against Wake but UVA had two games against ND. I'm pretty sure ND is below Wake in the standings.

Ever since the league expanded there has been an unbalanced schedule. That's not an excuse just a reality.

It took me a second, but I got it. UVA played (beat!) VT, the team which just beat Duke, twice. I think that’s the meaning.

ND is one game below Wake in the standings and 85 spots ahead of them in KenPom. Neither one is worth a darn.

CDu
02-27-2019, 08:19 PM
Maybe I'm misreading this post but what team beat Duke twice?

Also, Duke's schedule includes two games against Wake but UVA had two games against ND. I'm pretty sure ND is below Wake in the standings.

Ever since the league expanded there has been an unbalanced schedule. That's not an excuse just a reality.

He was saying that UVa played Va Tech (the team that just beat us) twice. Not that Va Tech beat us twice.

And while technically true that Wake is one game above ND in the standings, that isn’t a terribly compelling argument. They are both bad teams.

But it is true that the unbalanced schedules are... unbalanced. I am just not sure that UVa’s is notably easier than ours. The difference is that UVa has stayed mostly healthy while we have had bad injury luck.

Kjeffrey
02-27-2019, 08:23 PM
He was saying that UVa played Va Tech (the team that just beat us) twice. Not that Va Tech beat us twice.

And while technically true that Wake is one game above ND in the standings, that isn’t a terribly compelling argument. They are both bad teams.

Completely agree with you and DarkStar about them both being bad teams. I was trying to point out that two games against Wake doesn't show imbalance in Duke's schedule, especially when UVA played a team twice that is below Wake in the standings.

Overall. I think Duke and UVA have pretty similar schedules this year. The big exception is UVA only playing UNC once. Imbalance happens and some years teams benefit and other years not so much.

CDu
02-27-2019, 08:26 PM
Completely agree with you and DarkStar about them both being bad teams. I was trying to point out that two games against Wake doesn't show imbalance in Duke's schedule, especially when UVA played a team twice that is below Wake in the standings.

Overall. I think Duke and UVA have pretty similar schedules this year. The big exception is UVA only playing UNC once. Imbalance happens and some years teams benefit and other years not so much.

I agree and I think akg4y does too. The discussion arose because someone said UVa had an easier schedule than us.

uh_no
02-27-2019, 08:32 PM
I agree and I think akg4y does too. The discussion arose because someone said UVa had an easier schedule than us.

It's tough to argue that for the most part, UVA has taken care of business in the regular season for most of the past several years. It's hard to really complain about duke having a rougher schedule when it's not often the head scratching losses that do us in.

It's just part of the world of OAD....the younger teams are going to be more inconsistent. How UVA has so generally flopped in the tournament is a big head scratcher to me....maybe it's the officiating or style of play in a do-or-die scenario....or just small sample size....I wish them the best and hope this is the year they can get it off their back (not the whole thing...of course....unless maybe duke is out of it already)

Kjeffrey
02-27-2019, 08:39 PM
I agree and I think akg4y does too. The discussion arose because someone said UVa had an easier schedule than us.

And I'm sure we would all agree that UNC's schedule was significantly easier.

sagegrouse
02-27-2019, 08:41 PM
For the life of me I couldn't figure out who you were talking about. If you're a fan of another school, there should be a rule that your username includes the name or nickname of that school. Or you should have to wear a bell or something.


His handle is his UVA email address. Initials, random number, random letter. I would never expect non-Wahoos to know that, but if you went to UVA in the email era, it's tantamount to having the V-sabres tattooed on your forehead.

The Wahoo posters are great additions to DBR, but please don't say "we" referring to the Univ. of Virginia. Say Hoos, UVa, Virginia, whatever.

uh_no
02-27-2019, 09:18 PM
The Wahoo posters are great additions to DBR, but please don't say "we" referring to the Univ. of Virginia. Say Hoos, UVa, Virginia, whatever.

so long as it's clear from the context of the post, not sure I care too much. "I really want UVA to win and I think we have a good chance to do it" is probably fine....just when it's out of nowhere, I wouldn't assume people will know you're not a duke fan even if your alias is "UVArulesKdrools54" Now if that IS your alias, we might have a problem :)

Totally second sage, though. the regular UVA posters are by far the best opposing fans on this board....and it's one of the beauties of this board that we can talk great basketball with opposing fans. The same can't be said about fans from other of the top couple schools in the ACC.

jv001
02-27-2019, 09:21 PM
so long as it's clear from the context of the post, not sure I care too much. "I really want UVA to win and I think we have a good chance to do it" is probably fine...just when it's out of nowhere, I wouldn't assume people will know you're not a duke fan even if your alias is "UVArulesKdrools54" Now if that IS your alias, we might have a problem :)

Totally second sage, though. the regular UVA posters are by far the best opposing fans on this board...and it's one of the beauties of this board that we can talk great basketball with opposing fans. The same can't be said about fans from other of the top couple schools in the ACC.

Agree but PackMan is ok in my book. GoDuke!

uh_no
02-27-2019, 09:26 PM
Agree but PackMan is ok in my book. GoDuke!

That's why I said "top couple of teams" :)

msdukie
02-27-2019, 09:30 PM
We also had to play a full strength Duke twice, the team that just beat you twice, the team that was leading by 25 against you twice, and the other team that just beat you on the road two nights after playing you. We don't get two games against Wake Forest. Tell me again about the unbalanced schedule?

The unbalanced schedule talk is just excuses by whichever team ends up second or third. If anything UNC had the easiest schedule of anyone... But just win the games you're supposed to and it doesn't matter.

Pretty sure that UVa did not play a "full strength" Duke twice, making this more confusing....

JasonEvans
02-28-2019, 08:24 AM
I think Duke and UVA have pretty similar schedules this year.

Just to be clear, the above statement is true for the ACC regular season race, but not for the entire season. Duke's non-conference schedule is rated the 37th toughest in the nation according to KenPom... Virginia's is a shameful 256th.

Virginia didn't actually choose to play a single high quality team. They got Wisconsin in the finals of a Thanksgiving tournament and they played Maryland as part of the ACC-B10 challenge. VCU is the only other team they played outside the ACC that will even sniff the NCAA tourney. When it came time for Virginia's bye in the ACC regular season schedule, they chose to take a break. Duke spent their break playing St. Johns.

Duke also played tourney teams in Kentucky, Auburn, Gonzaga, and Texas Tech plus a traditional power in Indiana. I say all this not to crow about Duke's absurdly challenging schedule (we have played almost every team in the top 10) but to shame Virginia. The Cavs knew they would be good this season and they chose to play some wretchedly bad teams. Shame Virginia... shame!

-Jason "there should be a rule that if your non-conference schedule isn't in the top 150, the top half of all teams in the game, you cannot get a NCAA tourney #1 seed" Evans

CDu
02-28-2019, 09:02 AM
With just 3 games remaining for most teams (two for some), the ACC race for the top spots is coming into clarity. As it relates to Duke, let's first rule out the unlikely scenarios. Preemptive caveat: I know, "Never tell me the odds."

There is less than a 0.05% chance we'll fall out of the top 4 and be forced to play on Wednesday. That would require us losing out AND Va Tech and FSU getting just the right combination of wins and losses so as to bump us down to 5th in a tiebreaker. So, yeah, that's not happening.

There is a greater than 97% chance that we wind up in the top 3. So, realistically, let's talk about that.

Within the top-3, our chances of getting the top seed more or less rely on us winning out. There are technically some scenarios in which we could lose another game and still win the ACC regular season. But they involve both UNC and UVa losing multiple times. The probability of a 14-4 Duke team getting the #1 seed is next to none.

So, what are the chances that we get the #1 seed? Well, we're at about a 42% chance of winning our last 3 regular season games. That probably goes up a bit if/when Zion returns and down a bit if Zion doesn't return until the ACC tourney. We'd also need UVa to lose at least once, which has about a 30% chance of happening. So, our chances of a 1 seed are probably in the range of 10-15% depending upon when Zion returns. So, yeah, not good.

What does that mean in terms of our ACC tourney path? Well, it means that we'll very likely (85-90% chance) be looking at either UNC or UVa as the other side of our half of the bracket with the other of those teams as the #1 seed. The loss to Va Tech (combined with the unfortunate injury-driven losses to Syracuse and UNC) really changed the nature of our schedule. Had we won that Va Tech game, we'd have had about a 40% chance of the #1 seed, with that possibility increasing if Zion returned in time Chapel Hill. Oof.

That's not to say it can't happen. If we can win out, we give ourselves a ~30% chance of the 1 seed. Then it would come down to UVa winning out.

Bottom line: by far the most likely scenario is that we will be a 2 or 3 seed with either UNC or UVa as the one and the other of those two as the 3 or the 2. But, there's a puncher's chance we can still get the one seed. So let's come out swinging the rest of the way.

UVa1981
02-28-2019, 09:05 AM
The Wahoo posters are great additions to DBR, but please don't say "we" referring to the Univ. of Virginia. Say Hoos, UVa, Virginia, whatever.

A few weeks ago the moderators here noticed I had two user names. One is the one you see now; the other was simply my first name. The had me choose between the two because some "mischief" that apparently had occurred through the years.

In any event, I chose my present one simply because it gives any Duke reader more context (school affiliation, general time of matriculation) than my first name, which happens to be my user name on UVa's boards. I am attracted to the simplicity of having one user name for all boards, but having to identify school affiliation with each most is laborious, to say the least.

In any event, I much enjoy the convo on this board. High quality stuff, well-moderated.

UrinalCake
02-28-2019, 09:07 AM
-Jason "there should be a rule that if your non-conference schedule isn't in the top 150, the top half of all teams in the game, you cannot get a NCAA tourney #1 seed" Evans

I am sure there are many who would argue that if you do not schedule a single non-conference true road game, you cannot get a #1 seed either. I am not saying I believe this, as I am well aware of the reasoning behind the way that K schedules, but there are lots of different approaches to scheduling and it would be unfair to arbitrarily penalize one philosophy over another.

UVA has chosen to face a weak schedule in order to rack up wins, at the expense of not challenging themselves as much. It will be reflected in the SOS component of their NET rating (although not in their efficiency metrics which are unadjusted). If they finish the season with two losses, or even with three, then they deserve a #1 seed.

CDu
02-28-2019, 09:21 AM
I am sure there are many who would argue that if you do not schedule a single non-conference true road game, you cannot get a #1 seed either. I am not saying I believe this, as I am well aware of the reasoning behind the way that K schedules, but there are lots of different approaches to scheduling and it would be unfair to arbitrarily penalize one philosophy over another.

UVA has chosen to face a weak schedule in order to rack up wins, at the expense of not challenging themselves as much. It will be reflected in the SOS component of their NET rating (although not in their efficiency metrics which are unadjusted). If they finish the season with two losses, or even with three, then they deserve a #1 seed.

Yep. Worth noting that Jason has, unfairly in my opinion, eliminated the games UVa played against Wisconsin (in a preseason tournament) and Maryland (ACC/B1G). If you do the same to us, our non-conference resume doesn't look quite as daunting either. We did face Kentucky and Texas Tech on neutral courts. But aside from that? No other Q1 games. Don't get me wrong - it's still a tougher schedule than what UVa did. But not wildly so. Our benefit was that we had two tougher non-con games and a tougher tournament, which is something UVa had little control over.

UVa has taken the approach that they'll build their tournament resume largely off of a brutal ACC schedule, the ACC/B1G, and their preseason tournament. The tradeoff is that, if they stumble in the non-con schedule it will look way worse, and if they don't dominate in the conference schedule they'll have little evidence to fall back on. And aside from Duke games, they have gone undefeated in a schedule that includes 9 Q1-A wins, 11 Q1 wins, and 5 more Q2 wins. That's a very deserving 1 seed to me.

UVa1981
02-28-2019, 09:21 AM
The Cavs knew they would be good this season and they chose to play some wretchedly bad teams. Shame Virginia... shame!

With all due respect, I have to disagree with this to some extent, though it does hold together on the surface. First games are scheduled in advance of anybody knowing a team is going to be good or not (viz., South Carolina). Second, playing in a tournament (or tournaments) where there are other good teams (like Wisconsin) typically guarantees a good contest or two and is useful for tournament experience alone.

Third, and probably most importantly, part of our scheduling comes from Bennett's history of playing for Wisconsin-Green Bay, which typically got snubbed by the "big boys." So we always play a lot of in-state schools and usually they're pretty decent.

This year we played VCU (which has been very good, particularly before Shaka Smart left) and William & Mary (which has been solid, if not at VCU's level).

I don't see that changing under Bennett's tenure. In the pre-season (before ACC play starts), we will (admittedly) play a few cupcakes, a tournament or two with some tough customers in the mix, the Challenge, and one or two in-state schools.

akg4y
02-28-2019, 09:35 AM
For the life of me I couldn't figure out who you were talking about. If you're a fan of another school, there should be a rule that your username includes the name or nickname of that school. Or you should have to wear a bell or something.

Yeah on mobile it doesn't show the icon/avatar which is Cavman for me, sorry

uh_no
02-28-2019, 09:37 AM
With just 3 games remaining for most teams (two for some), the ACC race for the top spots is coming into clarity. As it relates to Duke, let's first rule out the unlikely scenarios. Preemptive caveat: I know, "Never tell me the odds."

There is less than a 0.05% chance we'll fall out of the top 4 and be forced to play on Wednesday. That would require us losing out AND Va Tech and FSU getting just the right combination of wins and losses so as to bump us down to 5th in a tiebreaker. So, yeah, that's not happening.


all that work and you tell me it's impossible??????? :( :D

akg4y
02-28-2019, 09:38 AM
Completely agree with you and DarkStar about them both being bad teams. I was trying to point out that two games against Wake doesn't show imbalance in Duke's schedule, especially when UVA played a team twice that is below Wake in the standings.

Overall. I think Duke and UVA have pretty similar schedules this year. The big exception is UVA only playing UNC once. Imbalance happens and some years teams benefit and other years not so much.


Yep sorry I thought we only had 3 home and aways, I forgot there was four.... But even as you guys pointed out all in all our schedules are for the most part equivalent.

-jk
02-28-2019, 09:42 AM
Yeah on mobile it doesn't show the icon/avatar which is Cavman for me, sorry

Well over half of our users visit from a mobile device!

-jk

akg4y
02-28-2019, 09:44 AM
Pretty sure that UVa did not play a "full strength" Duke twice, making this more confusing...


Ok you were missing Tre in the first game, I forgot about that but honestly it probably helped you in that game because it gave us more of a size disadvantage and matchup problem. Even though the Hoos lost the second game by more that was really just bc out of your mind three point shooting, we actually played better that game than the first. Can't do much when Duke is scoring 1.35 ppp with 62% three point shooting.

uh_no
02-28-2019, 09:46 AM
wow. head scratching loss by UL.

duke has STILL not clinched the double bye. despite some assertions that they're finishing in fifth is "impossible" :D with UL's loss, the number of tiebreakers has decreased significantly, and importantly, there is now ONE 3+ team scenario that bumps them. FSU can still beat duke outright, and then VT can win an outright tiebreaker.

3 team Combinations with Duke and VT
-Duke, VT, FSU
-- if VT beats FSU, VT is 2-0 in the round robin in this case, gets the 3 seed. Duke is 1-1 and gets the 4 seed
-- if FSU beats VT, they're each 1-1 in the round robin. Duke gets the 3 seed, and FSU gets the 4

-duke VT syracuse - duke is 1-2, VT is 2-0, cuse is 1-2 VT gets the 3, duke gets the 4 over syracuse due to their record against UVA

-Duke FSU syracuse - duke is 2-1, FSU is 1-1, Syracuse is 1-2. Duke gets the 3, FSU gets the 4

4 team combinations
-duke VT fsu syracuse -
-- if FSU beats VT duke is 2-2, VT is 2-1, fsu is 2-1, syracuse is 1-3, FSU gets the 3, VT gets the 4. Duke gets the 5
-- if VT beats FSU, duke is 2-2, VT is 3-0, FSU is 1-2, syracuse is 1-3. VT gets the 4, duke gets the 4.

DarkstarWahoo
02-28-2019, 10:04 AM
Our benefit was that we had two tougher non-con games and a tougher tournament, which is something UVa had little control over.

Yes and no. The rumor is that Bennett refuses to go to Maui because of the disruptive travel. I will follow him to the end of the earth - I think he might be UVA's greatest coach in any sport already - but the man chooses some strange hills upon which to die.

CDu
02-28-2019, 10:15 AM
Yes and no. The rumor is that Bennett refuses to go to Maui because of the disruptive travel. I will follow him to the end of the earth - I think he might be UVA's greatest coach in any sport already - but the man chooses some strange hills upon which to die.

That's interesting to note. Though worth noting that Maui only selects one team per conference. So if Duke was going, UVa was not. And for financial reasons (no offense), Maui will always choose Duke over UVa if given the choice.

JasonEvans
02-28-2019, 10:17 AM
I am sure there are many who would argue that if you do not schedule a single non-conference true road game, you cannot get a #1 seed either.

I would have no problem with that rule and am sure it would result in Duke scheduling more true road games... though it is worth noting that neutral court games against top tier opponents (like, for example, 2 contests against top 5 teams and another against a top 10 team) are pretty impressive. A team that played nothing but home games OOC is a chicken, but a team that plays a fair number of truly challenging neutral court games is showing some scheduling moxie, for sure.


Yep. Worth noting that Jason has, unfairly in my opinion, eliminated the games UVa played against Wisconsin (in a preseason tournament) and Maryland (ACC/B1G). If you do the same to us, our non-conference resume doesn't look quite as daunting either. We did face Kentucky and Texas Tech on neutral courts. But aside from that? No other Q1 games. Don't get me wrong - it's still a tougher schedule than what UVa did. But not wildly so. Our benefit was that we had two tougher non-con games and a tougher tournament, which is something UVa had little control over.


First of all, I didn't unfairly omit those two games, I merely pointed out that Virginia had no choice about playing those two teams as the Big10-ACC challenge is mandatory and Wisconsin was part of a holiday tournament and UVA wanted to be in a holiday tourney. In games where they truly had an option to pick who they wanted to play, Virginia stayed at home and played little sisters of the poor who were all within 100 miles of the Charlottesville campus. How bold!

Oh, and your "argument" is that aside from Duke's much more difficult holiday tourney and the ACC-B10, all Duke did to separate us from Virginia was play a preseason top 3 team and another top 10 team. Ummmm, that is damn impressive! I would not be saying a word about Virginia's schedule if, in addition to Wisky and the Terps they had played (for example) Michigan and Purdue or MichSt and Tennessee.

As I stated, Virginia's NCSOS is 256 while Duke is 37. That is shameful for the Hoos, IMO. Want to be the best? Then play the best!

I'll add that Michigan (NCSOS 310) Texas Tech (318), and Va Tech (332) should also be embarrassed by their scheduling, though I'm not sure any of them were as confident about how their season would go as the Cavs were coming into the 2018-19 campaign.

And, to address my last line, I was not saying Virginia (and Michigan) should be out of contention for a #1 seed this year. I was merely saying I would like to see a rule put in place to tell teams that their NCSOS needs to be high if they want to be in the #1 seed conversation. Maybe 150 is too high and we should say it must be in the top 200. All I know is that college basketball is better off with games like Duke-Texas Tech and UNC-Gonzaga and worse off when Virginia plays Coppin St, Morgan St, Towson and so on.

-Jason "ok, enough ranting about NCSOS... I did this a lot in November and December and need to give it up" Evans

JasonEvans
02-28-2019, 10:22 AM
That's interesting to note. Though worth noting that Maui only selects one team per conference. So if Duke was going, UVa was not. And for financial reasons (no offense), Maui will always choose Duke over UVa if given the choice.

Yeah, the premium tournaments -- the ones looking to attract the top top teams and get the most ESPN exposure -- are always going to invite Duke and UNC first. UVA will get, at best, the third best Thanksgiving tourney and even then it is possible the tourney will want Syracuse or Louisville instead.

CDu
02-28-2019, 10:28 AM
And, to address my last line, I was not saying Virginia (and Michigan) should be out of contention for a #1 seed this year. I was merely saying I would like to see a rule put in place to tell teams that their NCSOS needs to be high if they want to be in the #1 seed conversation. Maybe 150 is too high and we should say it must be in the top 200. All I know is that college basketball is better off with games like Duke-Texas Tech and UNC-Gonzaga and worse off when Virginia plays Coppin St, Morgan St, Towson and so on.

Well, all you said was "there should be a rule that if your non-conference schedule isn't in the top 150, the top half of all teams in the game, you cannot get a NCAA tourney #1 seed." Without any more info, that would seem to suggest that you feel like UVa should be eligible for a 1 seed. Which I disagree with. If your point is just that you'd like to find a way to "encourage" teams to play tougher non-con schedules, that's fine with me.

Troublemaker
02-28-2019, 10:45 AM
Well, all you said was "there should be a rule that if your non-conference schedule isn't in the top 150, the top half of all teams in the game, you cannot get a NCAA tourney #1 seed." Without any more info, that would seem to suggest that you feel like UVa should [not] be eligible for a 1 seed. Which I disagree with. If your point is just that you'd like to find a way to "encourage" teams to play tougher non-con schedules, that's fine with me.

Haha, personally, I gave Jason credit for knowing that his suggested future rule shouldn't apply retroactively to this season.

CDu
02-28-2019, 10:49 AM
Haha, personally, I gave Jason credit for knowing that his suggested future rule shouldn't apply retroactively to this season.

Touche.

ACCfaninVirginia
02-28-2019, 10:51 AM
Just to be clear, the above statement is true for the ACC regular season race, but not for the entire season. Duke's non-conference schedule is rated the 37th toughest in the nation according to KenPom... Virginia's is a shameful 256th.

Virginia didn't actually choose to play a single high quality team. They got Wisconsin in the finals of a Thanksgiving tournament and they played Maryland as part of the ACC-B10 challenge. VCU is the only other team they played outside the ACC that will even sniff the NCAA tourney. When it came time for Virginia's bye in the ACC regular season schedule, they chose to take a break. Duke spent their break playing St. Johns.

Duke also played tourney teams in Kentucky, Auburn, Gonzaga, and Texas Tech plus a traditional power in Indiana. I say all this not to crow about Duke's absurdly challenging schedule (we have played almost every team in the top 10) but to shame Virginia. The Cavs knew they would be good this season and they chose to play some wretchedly bad teams. Shame Virginia... shame!

-Jason "there should be a rule that if your non-conference schedule isn't in the top 150, the top half of all teams in the game, you cannot get a NCAA tourney #1 seed" Evans

Duke gets these early season games against top teams because of the hype (and potential to draw a national TV audience) around its recruits and Coach K's reputation. The national TV networks set these games up and offer big paydays. Good for Duke, but not b necessarily the fault of UVA. When Ralph Sampson was at UVA, UVA got many of the same. Schedules are set years in advance in many cases, and UVA, as a state institution also faces political pressure to play the smaller in-state schools (VCU, GMU, JMU, ODU, Norfolk State, Hampton, Radford, VMI, etc.) so those schools get a "payday" that help[s their budgets (UVA always has 2-3 of these games every year). As Bennet's reputation grows, UVA will likely get more of the "national" opportunities from the networks for the type "national audience" games that Coach K gets by virtue of his reputation and record (which is well deserved). UVA did play South Carolina, Wisconsin - Final 4 teams in recent years, those teams just were not as good this year.

jv001
02-28-2019, 10:55 AM
Duke gets these early season games against top teams because of the hype (and potential to draw a national TV audience) around its recruits and Coach K's reputation. The national TV networks set these games up and offer big paydays. Good for Duke, but not b necessarily the fault of UVA. When Ralph Sampson was at UVA, UVA got many of the same. Schedules are set years in advance in many cases, and UVA, as a state institution also faces political pressure to play the smaller in-state schools (VCU, GMU, JMU, ODU, Norfolk State, Hampton, Radford, VMI, etc.) so those schools get a "payday" that help[s their budgets (UVA always has 2-3 of these games every year). As Bennet's reputation grows, UVA will likely get more of the "national" opportunities from the networks for the type "national audience" games that Coach K gets by virtue of his reputation and record (which is well deserved). UVA did play South Carolina, Wisconsin - Final 4 teams in recent years, those teams just were not as good this year.

That's when Virginia fans will then be worrying about Tony taking the $$$$$$$$$$$ and fame for coaching another program. Duke fans had to agonize on Coach K moving on to the pro-ranks. Thank God he didn't but the same may happen to Bennett, because he's a great coach and the lady fans are bound to love that face. :cool: GoDuke!

UrinalCake
02-28-2019, 11:37 AM
That's interesting to note. Though worth noting that Maui only selects one team per conference. So if Duke was going, UVa was not. And for financial reasons (no offense), Maui will always choose Duke over UVa if given the choice.

But we can only play in Maui once every four (five?) years. There are lots of tournaments. UVA could play in Maui or something like it if they wanted to.

DarkstarWahoo
02-28-2019, 11:39 AM
But we can only play in Maui once every four (five?) years. There are lots of tournaments. UVA could play in Maui if they wanted to.

Anyone know how the preseason-ish stuff (Champions Classic, the various Nike one-offs, the games on the aircraft carrier back when that was a thing) factor in? Obviously whichever one Duke played in this year didn't keep you guys out of Maui, but I'm curious if they're considered different.

tbyers11
02-28-2019, 12:04 PM
Anyone know how the preseason-ish stuff (Champions Classic, the various Nike one-offs, the games on the aircraft carrier back when that was a thing) factor in? Obviously whichever one Duke played in this year didn't keep you guys out of Maui, but I'm curious if they're considered different.

Champions Classic or aircraft carrier games are considered regular games with regard to how they count toward the total number of games that a team is allowed to play in a year.

The preseason "exempt" tournaments (Maui, Battle for Atlantis, Preseason NIT, etc) in which you play multiple games but they only "count" as one game are regulated that you can only play in one per year. Each of those tournaments usually have tie-ins with the major conferences that state that a given team can only play every so often (usually 4-5 years). Which is why Duke/UNC aren't always the Maui ACC rep.

arnie
02-28-2019, 12:12 PM
That's when Virginia fans will then be worrying about Tony taking the $$$$$$$$$$$ and fame for coaching another program. Duke fans had to agonize on Coach K moving on to the pro-ranks. Thank God he didn't but the same may happen to Bennett, because he's a great coach and the lady fans are bound to love that face. :cool: GoDuke!

UVA hasn’t been to a Final Four in 35 years and of course no Bennett coached team has advanced that far. I don’t think Cavs have to worry about him being offered a better job until he wins a couple of regional titles.

jv001
02-28-2019, 04:47 PM
UVA hasn’t been to a Final Four in 35 years and of course no Bennett coached team has advanced that far. I don’t think Cavs have to worry about him being offered a better job until he wins a couple of regional titles.

I think if he's not offered a good job elsewhere it will be because of the style of play. But as you say, some teams might look at his NCAAT resume. GoDuke!

ElliottHoo
02-28-2019, 07:16 PM
I think if he's not offered a good job elsewhere it will be because of the style of play. But as you say, some teams might look at his NCAAT resume. GoDuke!

Bennett’s been offered good jobs elsewhere (certainly Wisconsin, probably UCLA and possibly others). I have zero concerns about him leaving for UCLA, but his daughter is finishing her senior year of high school and if the Bobcats (or any small-market NBA team viewed as having a good management team) came knocking I’d be genuinely concerned.

CDu
02-28-2019, 07:29 PM
Bennett’s been offered good jobs elsewhere (certainly Wisconsin, probably UCLA and possibly others). I have zero concerns about him leaving for UCLA, but his daughter is finishing her senior year of high school and if the Bobcats (or any small-market NBA team viewed as having a good management team) came knocking I’d be genuinely concerned.

Going to the NBA would seem to be a bad decision by Bennett, in my opinion. The pack line defense works well in college largely because college teams aren’t good enough from the perimeter and don’t have enough skill across the court to punish it. That isn’t the case in the NBA. And on top of that, the 3pt line is farther out, making it more difficult to stay compact while contesting shooters.

Maybe Bennett would be able to ditch the pack line if he went to the NBA, but then do we have any evidence he is good at coaching a different defense?

Bennett has built a near-perfect scenario: he gets veteran teams with guys who have bought into a system that largely works against the level of competition he faces. The teams that have more talent tend to be younger and less experienced. Those advantages also go away in the NBA.

I am not saying he couldn’t be a good NBA Coach. But it would likely mean coaching in a style that is totally different from what has made him a star coach.

English
03-01-2019, 12:41 PM
Bennett’s been offered good jobs elsewhere (certainly Wisconsin, probably UCLA and possibly others). I have zero concerns about him leaving for UCLA, but his daughter is finishing her senior year of high school and if the Bobcats (or any small-market NBA team viewed as having a good management team) came knocking I’d be genuinely concerned.

Careful now. Your (collective) fun, flimsy "oh, Bennett schedules in the bottom 50 NCSOS because he hates Hawaii and airplanes and he scheduled five years ago when S Carolina was awesome and Duke takes all the premium matchups and the VA state government mandates it and also other stuff" argument was mildly entertaining, but let's pump the brakes at lobbing easy insults at the NC professional basketball team. They're the Hornets and you know it. They may be a punching bag, but they're our punching bag.

Carry on.

PackMan97
03-01-2019, 12:49 PM
Duke fans had to agonize on Coach K moving on to the pro-ranks.

Some non-Duke fans have not given up hope on Coach K :)

ElliottHoo
03-01-2019, 10:38 PM
Careful now. Your (collective) fun, flimsy "oh, Bennett schedules in the bottom 50 NCSOS because he hates Hawaii and airplanes and he scheduled five years ago when S Carolina was awesome and Duke takes all the premium matchups and the VA state government mandates it and also other stuff" argument was mildly entertaining, but let's pump the brakes at lobbing easy insults at the NC professional basketball team. They're the Hornets and you know it. They may be a punching bag, but they're our punching bag.

Carry on.

In my defense, I wasn’t the one who made the comments about UVA’s OOC scheduling, which I admit was lackluster this year though historically its been fine.

I could make points about how SC, Middle Tennessee and the Atlantis lineup were all a LOT stronger a year or two ago, but the reality is that UVA’s OCC WAS weak, almost like Bennett scheduled every single bad D1 team in Maryland (except one) and tried to beat them all by 100 for some unknown reason.

Anyway, as for the Bob... Hornets, heh. If its any consolation, I grew up in Sacramento as a Kings fan. Believe me, I know pain.

DarkstarWahoo
03-02-2019, 11:13 AM
In my defense, I wasn’t the one who made the comments about UVA’s OOC scheduling, which I admit was lackluster this year though historically its been fine.

I could make points about how SC, Middle Tennessee and the Atlantis lineup were all a LOT stronger a year or two ago, but the reality is that UVA’s OCC WAS weak, almost like Bennett scheduled every single bad D1 team in Maryland (except one) and tried to beat them all by 100 for some unknown reason.

Anyway, as for the Bob... Hornets, heh. If its any consolation, I grew up in Sacramento as a Kings fan. Believe me, I know pain.

Wisconsin is much better. They wound up as a Q3 win for us last year! (Home game, of course.)

Nugget
03-02-2019, 11:32 AM
Wisconsin is much better. They wound up as a Q3 win for us last year! (Home game, of course.)

Also, didn't U.Va. play a true home and home series with Villanova that covered at least one of Nova's national title teams?

BandAlum83
03-02-2019, 11:33 AM
Yeah on mobile it doesn't show the icon/avatar which is Cavman for me, sorry

Is that what that is? Still no help, and I'm on my laptop looking at it now. It looks like a fire eater during a halftime show or something.

DarkstarWahoo
03-02-2019, 12:13 PM
Also, didn't U.Va. play a true home and home series with Villanova that covered at least one of Nova's national title teams?

Yep! Beat them in Charlottesville the year they won the title, lost by two in Philly the next year in Ty Jerome’s coming-out party. The teams also scrimmage just about every year.

Wahoo2000
03-02-2019, 12:26 PM
Also, didn't U.Va. play a true home and home series with Villanova that covered at least one of Nova's national title teams?

Yes - also had home and homes with WVU and Cal over the last few seasons when they were each pretty to very good. I don't think Bennett is scared to schedule good teams in the noncon. No big names this year though, and I hope we (UVA) get back to that. Ideally for me, we'd play one top 10ish team, two 10-25ish teams, and 2 more 25-100 type teams each noncon schedule (including the tourneys/challenges). I don't really care if the other 5-7 games come against teams in the 100-150 range, or if they're total 300+ garbage. If you're a legit top 5 team, those are all pretty much scrimmages anyway, though I'll admit it can have a MASSIVE impact on your final SoS ranking. In the end, I don't totally HATE our noncon schedule this year. If we just switched those 300+ teams to 200ish teams, we probably have a top 100-150ish noncon schedule. And if you mix in just ONE top 10 team, it's even better.

I agree with those upthread who said our noncon looks bad overall this year, but I wouldn't be "embarrassed" unless it was part of some kind of trend where we were always scheduling garbage. Our kenpom noncon sos since 13-14: 114, 142, 38, 82, 158, 254. So while this year was pretty awful, it's also obviously an outlier.

uh_no
03-03-2019, 06:17 PM
with their win yesterday, duke FINALLY locked up the double bye. VT gets the 3 seed if they win out and we lose out, otherwise we do.

Duke is still alive for the regular season, but obviously we need to win out, and need UVA to lose once (or beat UNC, lose to wake, and UVA loses out). If is able to secure a share of the regular season, duke has the 1 seed in all cases.

Given that we'll likely be the 2 or 3 seed, we'll play the 6 or 7 seed. This could be anyone from FSU to NCSU.

CDu
03-03-2019, 06:46 PM
with their win yesterday, duke FINALLY locked up the double bye. VT gets the 3 seed if they win out and we lose out, otherwise we do.

Duke is still alive for the regular season, but obviously we need to win out, and need UVA to lose once (or beat UNC, lose to wake, and UVA loses out). If is able to secure a share of the regular season, duke has the 1 seed in all cases.

Given that we'll likely be the 2 or 3 seed, we'll play the 6 or 7 seed. This could be anyone from FSU to NCSU.

Minor caveat, but in your “beat UNC but lose to Wake” ACC regular season title scenario, we would also need UNC to lose to BC as well as to us for that scenario to result in an ACC title for us.

Thankfully, that scenario is unlikely, as we should win against Wake.

sagegrouse
03-03-2019, 06:48 PM
with their win yesterday, duke FINALLY locked up the double bye. VT gets the 3 seed if they win out and we lose out, otherwise we do.

Duke is still alive for the regular season, but obviously we need to win out, and need UVA to lose once (or beat UNC, lose to wake, and UVA loses out). If is able to secure a share of the regular season, duke has the 1 seed in all cases.

Given that we'll likely be the 2 or 3 seed, we'll play the 6 or 7 seed. This could be anyone from FSU to NCSU.
"...we'll play the 6 or 7 seed...." Or anyone seeded from #10 to #15, if there are upsets in the second day of the ACC's.

Wahoo2000
03-04-2019, 01:02 PM
"...we'll play the 6 or 7 seed..." Or anyone seeded from #10 to #15, if there are upsets in the second day of the ACC's.

The drop off after the first 9 ACC teams is pretty severe. An upset COULD happen, but is much less likely than in most years. I think the 5/6/7 seeds will all be favored by at least 7-8 points, if not double digits, in their first tourney games on Wed.

uh_no
03-07-2019, 12:46 AM
from the top:

uva/unc/duke are locked into the top 3 seeds.

UVA win = 1 seed for them, with the winner of duke/carolina getting the 2
UVA loss = 2 seed, with the winner/loser of duke/unc getting the 1 and 3, respectively.

FSU is locked into the 4 seed.

VT/cuse/UL are locked into the 5/6/7 with the following caveats:
VT gets the 5 with a win. The tiebreakers are as follows:
UL over Cuse
Cuse over VT
VT over UL

In the case of a 3 way tie, it's UL > Cuse > VT regardless of the standings at the top. UL will have the tiebreak due to their wins over UNC and UVA.

NCSU and Clemson are locked into the 8 and 9, and will play each other on day 2 regardless of what happens

For the 10 seed, the following tiebreakers apply (any team finishing at 6-12)
GT>BC
UM>GT
BC>UM

Should they all end up tied, BC gets the 10 seed by virtue of their win over FSU, followed by UM and GT

For the teams that finish 5-13:
BC>UM
BC>wake
wake>UM (they would have to beat FSU to get to 5-13, and this would give them the tiebreak)

In the case where all 3 are tied, BC > wake > UM

ND and Pitt are locked into the 14 and 15 spots, with their game on saturday deciding their relative seeding.



So what does it mean for duke? It is a very slim chance we get the 1 seed. like <5%. So we almost assuredly won't see NCSU or clemson. We also almost assuredly won't see VT, who has a 90% chance of being the 5 seed.

So our single bye matchup will pretty much 50/50 be cuse or UL, becuase we're 50/50 2 or 3 seed. UL has like 75% chance of getting the 6 seed over syracuse due to their tiebreaker.

if we're the 2 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be GT vs a toss up at 14/15.
if we're the 3 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be BC vs a toss up at 14/15

So the most likely scenario right now is UL ends up with BC, the loser of duke/unc, and the winner of pitt/ND, and Syracuse ends up with GT, the winner of duke/unc, and the loser of pitt/ND

Of those choices, I'd much rather end up with syracuse and GT....or ultimately, in this case, I do not advocate throwing the game against UNC in order to get a better matchup :)

akg4y
03-07-2019, 01:12 AM
UVA loss = 2 seed, with the winner of duke/unc getting the 1 and 3

Thats going to really suck for the Duke/UNC winner, having to play on both sides of the bracket and have like 5 games in 3 days, including a game against themselves in the championship if they make it.


:)

brevity
03-07-2019, 04:03 AM
UVA loss = 2 seed, with the winner of duke/unc getting the 1 and 3


Thats going to really suck for the Duke/UNC winner, having to play on both sides of the bracket and have like 5 games in 3 days, including a game against themselves in the championship if they make it. :)

You joke, but Herbie once finished 1st and 3rd in a race, so it can happen.

9135

uh_no
03-07-2019, 09:06 AM
Thats going to really suck for the Duke/UNC winner, having to play on both sides of the bracket and have like 5 games in 3 days, including a game against themselves in the championship if they make it.


:)

booooo. -jk edited my post :D

Frybay
03-07-2019, 12:50 PM
from the top:

uva/unc/duke are locked into the top 3 seeds.

UVA win = 1 seed for them, with the winner of duke/carolina getting the 2
UVA loss = 2 seed, with the winner/loser of duke/unc getting the 1 and 3, respectively.

FSU is locked into the 4 seed.

VT/cuse/UL are locked into the 5/6/7 with the following caveats:
VT gets the 5 with a win. The tiebreakers are as follows:
UL over Cuse
Cuse over VT
VT over UL

In the case of a 3 way tie, it's UL > Cuse > VT regardless of the standings at the top. UL will have the tiebreak due to their wins over UNC and UVA.

NCSU and Clemson are locked into the 8 and 9, and will play each other on day 2 regardless of what happens

For the 10 seed, the following tiebreakers apply (any team finishing at 6-12)
GT>BC
UM>GT
BC>UM

Should they all end up tied, BC gets the 10 seed by virtue of their win over FSU, followed by UM and GT

For the teams that finish 5-13:
BC>UM
BC>wake
wake>UM (they would have to beat FSU to get to 5-13, and this would give them the tiebreak)

In the case where all 3 are tied, BC > wake > UM

ND and Pitt are locked into the 14 and 15 spots, with their game on saturday deciding their relative seeding.



So what does it mean for duke? It is a very slim chance we get the 1 seed. like <5%. So we almost assuredly won't see NCSU or clemson. We also almost assuredly won't see VT, who has a 90% chance of being the 5 seed.

So our single bye matchup will pretty much 50/50 be cuse or UL, becuase we're 50/50 2 or 3 seed. UL has like 75% chance of getting the 6 seed over syracuse due to their tiebreaker.

if we're the 2 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be GT vs a toss up at 14/15.
if we're the 3 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be BC vs a toss up at 14/15

So the most likely scenario right now is UL ends up with BC, the loser of duke/unc, and the winner of pitt/ND, and Syracuse ends up with GT, the winner of duke/unc, and the loser of pitt/ND

Of those choices, I'd much rather end up with syracuse and GT...or ultimately, in this case, I do not advocate throwing the game against UNC in order to get a better matchup :)

So no matter what UNCheats will get a new banner in Smith Center – 3rd place or 2nd place ACC Regular Season Champion!

83bluedevil
03-07-2019, 01:06 PM
from the top:

uva/unc/duke are locked into the top 3 seeds.

UVA win = 1 seed for them, with the winner of duke/carolina getting the 2
UVA loss = 2 seed, with the winner/loser of duke/unc getting the 1 and 3, respectively.

FSU is locked into the 4 seed.

VT/cuse/UL are locked into the 5/6/7 with the following caveats:
VT gets the 5 with a win. The tiebreakers are as follows:
UL over Cuse
Cuse over VT
VT over UL

In the case of a 3 way tie, it's UL > Cuse > VT regardless of the standings at the top. UL will have the tiebreak due to their wins over UNC and UVA.

NCSU and Clemson are locked into the 8 and 9, and will play each other on day 2 regardless of what happens

For the 10 seed, the following tiebreakers apply (any team finishing at 6-12)
GT>BC
UM>GT
BC>UM

Should they all end up tied, BC gets the 10 seed by virtue of their win over FSU, followed by UM and GT

For the teams that finish 5-13:
BC>UM
BC>wake
wake>UM (they would have to beat FSU to get to 5-13, and this would give them the tiebreak)

In the case where all 3 are tied, BC > wake > UM

ND and Pitt are locked into the 14 and 15 spots, with their game on saturday deciding their relative seeding.



So what does it mean for duke? It is a very slim chance we get the 1 seed. like <5%. So we almost assuredly won't see NCSU or clemson. We also almost assuredly won't see VT, who has a 90% chance of being the 5 seed.

So our single bye matchup will pretty much 50/50 be cuse or UL, becuase we're 50/50 2 or 3 seed. UL has like 75% chance of getting the 6 seed over syracuse due to their tiebreaker.

if we're the 2 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be GT vs a toss up at 14/15.
if we're the 3 seed, the likely first round game is very likely to be BC vs a toss up at 14/15

So the most likely scenario right now is UL ends up with BC, the loser of duke/unc, and the winner of pitt/ND, and Syracuse ends up with GT, the winner of duke/unc, and the loser of pitt/ND

Of those choices, I'd much rather end up with syracuse and GT...or ultimately, in this case, I do not advocate throwing the game against UNC in order to get a better matchup :)

But UL didn't beat UVA

BandAlum83
03-07-2019, 01:19 PM
But UL didn't beat UVA

Under the scenario of tying, it would mean they won their game. So, UL will have won under the scenario given.

uh_no
03-07-2019, 01:27 PM
Under the scenario of tying, it would mean they won their game. So, UL will have won under the scenario given.

bingo. I almost missed that when i first did it, and remembered it when i double checked everything....it SIGNIFICANTLY simplified that tiebreak scenario, which had all sorts of cases depending on what the top 3 did.

BandAlum83
03-07-2019, 01:39 PM
bingo. I almost missed that when i first did it, and remembered it when i double checked everything...it SIGNIFICANTLY simplified that tiebreak scenario, which had all sorts of cases depending on what the top 3 did.

It's not often one has the opportunity to use the future perfect tense in normal daily discourse.

"UL will have won their game with UVA under that scenario."

uh_no
03-07-2019, 01:45 PM
It's not often one has the opportunity to use the future perfect tense in normal daily discourse.

"UL will have won their game with UVA under that scenario."

ah yes, it is you who are correct.

uh_no
03-08-2019, 09:11 PM
from the top:

uva/unc/duke are locked into the top 3 seeds.

UVA win = 1 seed for them, with the winner of duke/carolina getting the 2
UVA loss = 2 seed, with the winner/loser of duke/unc getting the 1 and 3, respectively.

FSU is locked into the 4 seed.

VT is locked into the 5 seed.

Cuse and UL are playing for the 6 and 7 seeds, with the tie breaker going to UL.

NCSU and Clemson are locked into the 8 and 9, and will play each other on day 2 regardless of what happens

For the 10 seed, the following tiebreakers apply (any team finishing at 6-12)
GT>BC
UM>GT
BC>UM

Should they all end up tied, BC gets the 10 seed by virtue of their win over FSU, followed by UM and GT

For the teams that finish 5-13:
BC>UM
BC>wake
wake>UM (they would have to beat FSU to get to 5-13, and this would give them the tiebreak)

In the case where all 3 are tied, BC > wake > UM

ND and Pitt are locked into the 14 and 15 spots, with their game on saturday deciding their relative seeding.


updated

uh_no
03-09-2019, 05:58 PM
updated

UVA 1

duke/UNC 2/3

FSU 4

VT 5

UL 6

Cuse 7

NCSU 8

Clsmson 9

GT 10

BC 11

UM 12

WF 13

Pitt 14

ND 15

so with a win, we get cuse/GT/ND, and with a loss, we get UL/BC/Pitt...pretty much what we thought.

flyingdutchdevil
03-09-2019, 06:10 PM
If it’s not Duke, I’d hope it’s UVa.

fuse
03-09-2019, 06:47 PM
I’m kinda stunned to see Notre Dame at 15.
Says a lot if you are having a rougher season than Miami with 7 scholarship players, Pitt, and Wake Forest.