Who’s Number 1 Tomorrow?

[TeacherTom]

What do you think?&

[DevilYouKnow]

What do you think?&
I hope it’s Duke, but Tennessee deserves it.

[UrinalCake]

Yeah it’s gonna be TN based on how the rankings work. You could honestly make a case that UVA should be 2 and us 3, given that they blew out a ranked VT team and then lost to us on the road. Their week in total was much better than ours. Not sure how Tre’s injury will be factored in.

[Devilwin]

TN will be number 1. Duke 2, UVA 3rd.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

TN will be number 1. Duke 2, UVA 3rd.

That would be my guess as well.....

[camion]

Yeah it’s gonna be TN based on how the rankings work. You could honestly make a case that UVA should be 2 and us 3, given that they blew out a ranked VT team and then lost to us on the road. Their week in total was much better than ours. Not sure how Tre’s injury will be factored in.

You could make that argument, but you could counter with the statistic that Duke had its preferred starting lineup available 18 of the 125 minutes played in the last three games. And in two of those game and injury to an important player occurred (early) during the game.

That being said I'm fine with Duke being the team chasing rather than the team being chased so let's let Virginia be voted ahead of Duke until we meet again.

[pfrduke]

You could make that argument, but you could counter with the statistic that Duke had its preferred starting lineup available 18 of the 125 minutes played in the last three games. And in two of those game and injury to an important player occurred (early) during the game.

That being said I'm fine with Duke being the team chasing rather than the team being chased so let's let Virginia be voted ahead of Duke until we meet again.

I also think there are plenty of voters who don’t play as close attention to the details of Duke’s injuries as we do. They’ll see L, W and vote accordingly.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I also think there are plenty of voters who don’t play as close attention to the details of Duke’s injuries as we do. They’ll see L, W and vote accordingly.

Maybe, but voters also tend to gift those who did not lose. And of the 4 best teams, TN did not lose.

[pfrduke]

Maybe, but voters also tend to gift those who did not lose. And of the 4 best teams, TN did not lose.

Agree with this completely (and I think it’s consistent with what I said). Tennessee won twice, we didn’t, and most (or at least many) voters won’t go into nuanced detail to try to understand the “why” behind both sets of results.

[Wander]

Agree with this completely (and I think it’s consistent with what I said). Tennessee won twice, we didn’t, and most (or at least many) voters won’t go into nuanced detail to try to understand the “why” behind both sets of results.

Well, Tre Jones is still out. So I think even a "nuanced detail" consideration would have Tennessee at #1 for now. After we see Jones back on the court, we should reconsider.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agree with this completely (and I think it’s consistent with what I said). Tennessee won twice, we didn’t, and most (or at least many) voters won’t go into nuanced detail to try to understand the “why” behind both sets of results.

Yup. But I also believe TN deserves the 1 ranking. are they the best? Likely not. But were they the most consistent? Yup.

[Teton Jack]

What is this crap! It will be Duke. Tennessee might be a top 5 school that finally plays in a league with more than 1 decent team but Duke just took down an undefeated, scarily-talented defensive juggernaut that has incredible offensive efficiency. Coaches will know; sportswriters - like other journalists - well, does it matter?

[Troublemaker]

Yup. But I also believe TN deserves the 1 ranking. are they the best? Likely not. But were they the most consistent? Yup.

The Vols are not more "consistent" than the other 3 contenders.

It's just a ladder system, and this week the Vols happened to not lose.

[dukebluesincebirth]

Duke is the best team in college basketball. Tennessee will be called # 1 tomorrow. Doesn’t really matter right now. I like my squad.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

What is this crap! It will be Duke. Tennessee might be a top 5 school that finally plays in a league with more than 1 decent team but Duke just took down an undefeated, scarily-talented defensive juggernaut that has incredible offensive efficiency. Coaches will know; sportswriters - like other journalists - well, does it matter?

Don't dis the sportswriters votes....sure, coaches know more, but most coaches don't pay attention to others during the season, often having a lackey in their office filling it out. The journalists, for all their flaws, and I'm no fan of the media over all, at least have a job description that allows them to watch these games and keep up.

[Teton Jack]

I will accept your POV, but I still expect one poll to make Duke #1

[22JumpShots]

I hope it’s Duke, but Tennessee deserves it.

No way they deserve #1 over Duke. I can't stand the notion of well..."they haven't lost this week, or etc etc." they don't have NEAR the amount of quality wins that Duke has".

I am copying most post from another thread...

_________________________________________________

I think Duke stays #1. We lost in OT to an ACC team without our Point Guard and Shooting Guard (two starters)...and then beat undefeated #4 UVA (without our point guard).

Tenn barely squeaked by unranked Bama. Their only quality wins are 3 point win vs. Zags, @ FLA? and L-ville...and lost to KU. <-- Am I wrong?

You all already know who Duke has beat ... (Smashed UK (2), Auburn (8), IU, TTU (12), @ FL St (13), UVA (4) ... Clemson (34) and Princeton (by 50) who beat ASU (who beat Kansas) ...

If the ranking is anything resembling truth then Duke stays #1.

Edit - All of this in conjunction with #2 losing, #4 losing, #7 losing, #8 losing etc

__________________________________________________

After Duke leap-frogged KU (after they DIDN'T lose and in fact beat a top 5 team if I remember correctly?) earlier this season I think the voting committee values realism vs. the (well they didn't lose this week) notion.

Even if AP drops the ball per usual, I would think Coach's Poll has Duke #1

[Wander]

No way they deserve #1 over Duke. I can't stand the notion of well..."they haven't lost this week, or etc etc." they don't have NEAR the amount of quality wins that Duke has".


Duke definitely has better wins than Tennessee. We also have a home loss to a not great team... yes, there's an asterisk next to that because of two missing starters, but it still needs to count to some degree.

I think you can make a reasonable argument for Duke (or UVA, or even Michigan State or Michigan), but it's not some great outrage to have Tennessee at #1. If Tre Jones comes back at 100%, we'll get back up there in a few weeks, no problem...

[weezie]

I think it's time to step away from the deeber and go torment your families. Fresh air and honey-do lists await. :cool:

[uh_no]

No way they deserve #1 over Duke. I can't stand the notion of well..."they haven't lost this week, or etc etc." they don't have NEAR the amount of quality wins that Duke has".


I can't stand a lot of things the media does....but that doesn't mean they won't vote TN #1 tomorrow.

[fathippo]

I assume Tennessee based on how voter rankings work. Although Tennessee tried really hard to lose to a bad Alabama team yesterday. It would be nice if they voted on who they believed were the best teams and not who "deserved" it.

[Troublemaker]

I assume Tennessee based on how voter rankings work. Although Tennessee tried really hard to lose to a bad Alabama team yesterday. It would be nice if they voted on who they believed were the best teams and not who "deserved" it.

I wouldn't characterize the vote as being for the team most deserving, either.

It's just a ladder system, and the Vols are next up after you eliminate the teams that lost.

[22JumpShots]

I wouldn't characterize the vote as being for the team most deserving, either.

It's just a ladder system, and the Vols are next up after you eliminate the teams that lost.

So then how would you justify Kansas losing the number one spot to Duke - after Kansas DID NOT lose and in fact, beat #10 MSU?

I think the times are a changing with regards to "the old voting system"....

[bluedev_92]

I believe Duke should be #1. The voters may not see it that way, but that doesn’t change my opinion. Real life should matter, not just who didn’t lose. The voting should be about which team is the best team, given everything known about the teams, including who they played, who they beat, etc. Reasoable minds can disagree, but that’s my take.

[KandG]

Never been too bothered about the rankings, and I think Tennessee will be number 1. If our loss had been on the road to a team like Florida State with injuries to our two starters, then the possibility of a split among voters would be stronger. But losing to Syracuse at home, even with the qualifiers, and Tennessee winning out should put them at the top. Duke should get several first place votes though.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

So then how would you justify Kansas losing the number one spot to Duke - after Kansas DID NOT lose and in fact, beat #10 MSU?

I think the times are a changing with regards to "the old voting system"...

Good point, but not really an applicable analogy. In that case, we had two very different factors.
A: Those were pre season rankings that switched after one game.....not mid season rankings where the whole body of 15-18 games is in play.
B: Duke's freakish take down of UK........a black swan event.

[OldPhiKap]

Tennessee, and congratulations to them.

[uh_no]

So then how would you justify Kansas losing the number one spot to Duke - after Kansas DID NOT lose and in fact, beat #10 MSU?


You're barking up the wrong tree. Troublemaker doesn't have to 'justify' anything. He's simply stating how the voting usually goes...and he's not wrong. Sometimes it goes slightly differently....but arguing that it's "wrong" to work that way is not going to change the result tomorrow.

(as here before pointed out, there are also ways to justify that instance)

Tennessee hasn't done anything to NOT be voted #1. They'll be #1.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Duke is #1. Doesn’t matter what some dumb writers or coaches think. This championship is won on the court, not on paper! LGD GTHc!

[Tripping William]

Tennessee, and congratulations to them.

If Rick Barnes can get under Calipari’s skin as much as he did Dean’s, I’ll be okay with it.

[SavDukeGrad]

If Rick Barnes can get under Calipari’s skin as much as he did Dean’s, I’ll be okay with it.

I am so glad there is a team (or teams) in the SEC that can challenge Kentucky for the SEC championship! For so many years, Kentucky just waltzed through the SEC, inflating their record, thus helping their NCAA tournament seeding. All this while the ACC teams were beating each other’s brains out! I’m ok with Tennessee getting a little love right now, as long as they beat Kentucky. But of course, Duke IS the best team!

[knicknut]

It'll never happen, but I wish the rankings just went to a composite of the statistical metrics, like the one Massey makes. The subjective ladder poll with no explicit metric process that goes on now is antiquated, flawed, and unnecessary.

To answer the question, I agree TN, Duke, UVA is how it'll shake out.

[uh_no]

It'll never happen, but I wish the rankings just went to a composite of the statistical metrics, like the one Massey makes. The subjective ladder poll with no explicit metric process that goes on now is antiquated, flawed, and unnecessary.

To answer the question, I agree TN, Duke, UVA is how it'll shake out.

The rankings don't MEAN anything, so who cares how they're compiled? It's not like anyone gives out awards for your rankings (well, except duke women's basketball...whose banners are wrong anyway)

[AZLA]

I believe Duke should be #1. The voters may not see it that way, but that doesn’t change my opinion. Real life should matter, not just who didn’t lose. The voting should be about which team is the best team, given everything known about the teams, including who they played, who they beat, etc. Reasoable minds can disagree, but that’s my take.

Agreed. They should take into account two starters out against Syracuse; on the flip side, by that logic, it also makes sense that because Tre is out, Duke isn’t as good as they could be when they have all starters healthy. So it’s reasonable if they drop a slot. If that happens I think it’s just a nod to how important Tre is to this team. That’s my corny way of looking at it.

[OldPhiKap]

If Rick Barnes can get under Calipari’s skin as much as he did Dean’s, I’ll be okay with it.

“You must spread some Comments around before commenting on Tripping William again.”

[22JumpShots]

You're barking up the wrong tree. Troublemaker doesn't have to 'justify' anything. He's simply stating how the voting usually goes...and he's not wrong. Sometimes it goes slightly differently...but arguing that it's "wrong" to work that way is not going to change the result tomorrow.

(as here before pointed out, there are also ways to justify that instance)

Tennessee hasn't done anything to NOT be voted #1. They'll be #1.

lol who is barking? Why the saltiness for asking someone's opinion on a valid point? He mentioned ladder system with an indication of "if you don't lose you move up" [his words - "you eliminate the teams that lost"]...and I simply brought up a solid counter-point of a Number 1 team not losing while beating a Top 10 team, and falling in the polls to the very team here in discussion. Is that really barking up a tree ?!?! lmao okay. I do like HBCK's point of a possible difference being Pre-Season Poll / Regular Season Game etc.

I think there is a high chance Duke is number 1 come Monday. If not AP, look out for Coach's Poll :)

[BandAlum83]

It'll never happen, but I wish the rankings just went to a composite of the statistical metrics, like the one Massey makes. The subjective ladder poll with no explicit metric process that goes on now is antiquated, flawed, and unnecessary.

To answer the question, I agree TN, Duke, UVA is how it'll shake out.

Speaking of which, why don't the net rankings include yesterday's games? You would think it's an automated algorithm.

[UrinalCake]

Agreed. They should take into account two starters out against Syracuse; on the flip side, by that logic, it also makes sense that because Tre is out, Duke isn’t as good as they could be when they have all starters healthy. So it’s reasonable if they drop a slot. If that happens I think it’s just a nod to how important Tre is to this team. That’s my corny way of looking at it.

I think the polls are intended as a reflection of the past, not a projection into the future. So with regards to injury, they might choose not to ding us as much for the Syracuse loss. But they’re not going to reward us by giving us a higher ranking than our results deserve based on the assumption that we will play better when Tre returns.

Now, when it comes to the selection committee seeding the tournament, that’s another story.

[arnie]

lol who is barking? Why the saltiness for asking someone's opinion on a valid point? He mentioned ladder system with an indication of "if you don't lose you move up" [his words - "you eliminate the teams that lost"]...and I simply brought up a solid counter-point of a Number 1 team not losing while beating a Top 10 team, and falling in the polls to the very team here in discussion. Is that really barking up a tree ?!?! lmao okay. I do like HBCK's point of a possible difference being Pre-Season Poll / Regular Season Game etc.

I think there is a high chance Duke is number 1 come Monday. If not AP, look out for Coach's Poll :)

Interesting that local hack Luke Decock picked MSU 1 and Duke 3. The dreaded Couch out of e. Lansing picked Duke numero uno.

[Devilwin]

Tennessee is one. MSU 3, Gonzaga 4, UVA 5.

[TeacherTom]

Didn’t MSU lose by ten? How can that merit a number 3?

[tbyers11]

Didn’t MSU lose by ten? How can that merit a number 3?

No. Michigan State's only game last week was a 6 point win at Nebraska.

Michigan lost at Wisconsin by 10

[budwom]

Don't much care if we're one or two or three, as long as we're healthy and improving.

Admit getting a kick out of seeing Connecticut at #89 in KenPom....their irrelevance thrills me..thank you, once again, Boston College.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Tennessee is one. MSU 3, Gonzaga 4, UVA 5.

In which poll? In the AP, UVA is third.


The Volunteers received 48 of 64 first-place votes from a media panel in the poll released Monday, after Duke, Michigan and Virginia all suffered losses last week.

No. 2 Duke received 11 first-place votes, No. 3 Virginia received three and No. 6 Michigan State two. Gonzaga and Michigan rounded out the top five.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/25817310/tennessee-moves-no-1-ap-top-25-duke-drops-no-2

[sagegrouse]

Don't much care if we're one or two or three, as long as we're healthy and improving.

Admit getting a kick out of seeing Connecticut at #89 in KenPom...their irrelevance thrills me..thank you, once again, Boston College.

Does the presence of Danny Hurley at UConn create some pangs of familial empathy (whatever that means), or is the team and school the same old, U-Con?

[devildeac]

Does the presence of Danny Hurley at UConn create some pangs of familial empathy (whatever that means), or is the team and school the same old, U-Con?

1. 1999
2. 2004
3. laptops

To hell with them.

[Indoor66]

Does the presence of Danny Hurley at UConn create some pangs of familial empathy (whatever that means), or is the team and school the same old, U-Con?

None!

[johnb]

Poll voters use their own standards, and so there is no single metric.

My hunch is that few spend much time considering their vote, and I've read that they often hand off the responsibility to an assistant--though I'd hope they'd at least take a look before sending it in.

I find the coaches poll particularly amusing. If I'm Coach K, I might spend 80% of my bball time on my own team (including recruiting) and 20% on the teams we are to play that week. I'd have assistants scouting ACC teams--those are the only guaranteed opponents for the rest of the year. I'd spend NO TIME WHATSOEVER studying up on the dozens of teams who might warrant inclusion in a poll. I'd also not care in the slightest about who is 19th or 21st or 5th, especially if they weren't a potential opponent (ACC) or being coached by one of my former players. I guess I might watch Sportscenter, but that's sort of a busman's holiday.

Sportswriters may or may not be more knowledgable than the average coach, but at least their mission is to provide a broader perspective--ie, they are being paid to at least know about teams that aren't on the local college's schedule.

Having said that, I very much like Duke being ranked highly. Sure, the NC is better, but those are few and far between. Transient bits of applause (like being ranked #1) have all sorts of positive consequences, including recruitment. It may be spurious, but everybody likes a winner (except those who like scrappy underdogs, but scrappy underdogs tend not to get Duke basketball scholarships).

[Duke76]

Tennessee is one. MSU 3, Gonzaga 4, UVA 5.

where upon Tennessee promptly loses their next game...without even looking at who they play, imo

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Poll voters use their own standards, and so there is no single metric.

My hunch is that few spend much time considering their vote, and I've read that they often hand off the responsibility to an assistant--though I'd hope they'd at least take a look before sending it in.

I find the coaches poll particularly amusing.).

This was a point I made earlier. A lot of people immediately gravitate to the coaches poll because coaches know more than writers. Well, yes, in terms of coaching they do, but rare is the coach who ever sees other teams play - unless they are the next team on that coach's schedule. Head coaches don't have time for this. Neither do assistants really. The coaches polls are clearly not the focused opinion of head coaches. Sounds great, but that's not what it is.

[Devilwin]

Heres the ap poll. Tennessee, Duke, UVA, Gonzaga, Michigan.

[CDu]

The top-4 are identical between coaches and AP: Tenn, Duke, UVa, Gonzaga. 5th and 6th swap places with each other in the two polls: Michigan is 5th in the AP and 6th in the coaches; MSU is 5th in the coaches and 6th in the AP.

[Ian]

So it's happened again, a team loses to Duke but moves up in the polls. Happened to FSU, Texas Tech, and now UVa.

[JasonEvans]

Polls... whatever.

I'll say again what I said on the podcast (https://soundcloud.com/dbrpodcast/dbr-podcast-144-down-goes-virginia)... if Duke and Tennessee were to play on a neutral floor (both teams at full strength), the Vegas line would be at least Duke by 3 and maybe more like Duke by 4 or 5. The folks who really study this stuff and put their money where their mouth is know that Duke is the best team in the land. There isn't a single team that would be favored over us on a neutral court. Virginia probably comes the closest.

[Wahoo2000]

Polls... whatever.

I'll say again what I said on the podcast (https://soundcloud.com/dbrpodcast/dbr-podcast-144-down-goes-virginia)... if Duke and Tennessee were to play on a neutral floor (both teams at full strength), the Vegas line would be at least Duke by 3 and maybe more like Duke by 4 or 5. The folks who really study this stuff and put their money where their mouth is know that Duke is the best team in the land. There isn't a single team that would be favored over us on a neutral court. Virginia probably comes the closest.

Aren't Vegas lines designed more on getting even money on both sides rather than predicting the actual outcome? Not saying that Duke isn't the best team in the country, but the lines given on any game are only a PART of the best way to determine that.

[kako]

Polls, schmolls. I don't care what Duke is ranked, I just care how Duke will do in March and April. So I guess the only poll that matters is the last one.

That being said, I'm kind of happy for Rick Barnes. Anyone whoever got into El Deano's face gets a Christmas card from me.

9F

[Bob Green]

where upon Tennessee promptly loses their next game...without even looking at who they play, imo

Tennessee plays at Vanderbilt on Wednesday. Vandy is 9-8 (0-5).

[Indoor66]

Tennessee plays at Vanderbilt on Wednesday. Vandy is 9-8 (0-5).

Sounds like what some around here call a trap game.

[JasonEvans]

Sounds like what some around here call a trap game.

Naaah, Vandy ain't good enough to be a trap.

Tenn is likely to be a double digit favorite in every game until at least Florida on 2/9 (at Tenn). They play Kentucky on 2/16 at Kentucky, which would seem to be the first time they will not be favored. They close with a tough stretch of games. Their final 5 contests are at LSU, Miss, and Auburn as well as home games with Kentucky and Miss St. hose all appear to be tourney teams.

[curtis325]

Tennessee plays at Vanderbilt on Wednesday. Vandy is 9-8 (0-5).

Vandy is a lock!

[OldPhiKap]

Naaah, Vandy ain't good enough to be a trap.



That’s what State said about Wake.

[Reilly]

... Vandy ain't good enough to be a trap ..


That’s what State said about Wake.

I guess it's understandable, given both are black and gold ...

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I guess it's understandable, given both are black and gold ...

When they play each other in football, look like an intra squad game