How many losses can Duke have and get a top seed

[gofurman]

Q1. How many losses do you think we will have ? Reg season I mean, not including acc tourney.

Q2. How many losses can Duke have and get a one seed?

I could see us finishing with 7 losses. Gonzaga plus 12-6 in ACC as a minimum. That’s probably a two seed even w wins over UK and FSU and Texas Tech.

Right now we are 14-2 with 15 games left reg season. 31 game reg season this year. 14 games in acc still to go. Plus St John’s who is good. We play UNC twice. UVA twice. Done w FSU. State and VT still to come who are both good. The whole league can beat anyone on a given night

Obviously it matters who you beat as the Q1 wins count more.

*. I’ll say 25-6 reg season is prediction (two uva games is tough) needing 26-5 to get a one seed ? Would 26-5 get a one seed if we lost to uva both times ?

Thoughts???

[uh_no]

Q1. How many losses do you think we will have ? 2, of course!

[Devilwin]

Four maybe five losses total.

[gocanes0506]

Since they lost to an unranked Syracuse at home, 4.

[BeachBlueDevil]

Duke has some strong wins, so that will help should they hit 5 or 6 losses. However, I think Duke beats UNC twice. Am I being a homer? Slightly. But we know Duke is better coached and has the talent edge on UNC.

Now Duke will drop one to UVA, but not both and Tech is good and its in Blacksburg. But if the team is full strength I don't see a loss there either. I think at worst Duke finishes the regular season at 27-4.

[Furniture]

Duke wins tomorrow....

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Since they lost to an unranked Syracuse at home, 4.

...since they lost to Syracuse at home....with two starters out......I'd say 5 at least...

[scottdude8]

Kansas, if I remember correctly, had 7 regular season losses last year, including a few significantly worse than ours against Syracuse. The ACC this year is better than the Big 12 last year. If we finish the year with fewer losses than that it will mean we will have a significant number of “Q1” wins, likely just as many if not more as the other top seed competitors, especially based on our stellar non-conference slate. Combine that history and our likely Q1 record with the fact that there’ll be no No. 1 seed from the Big East, and likely the Big 12, this year... and for me 6 is the number.

[gofurman]

...since they lost to Syracuse at home...with two starters out...I'd say 5 at least...

how much does the committee keep in mind two starters were out ? If it's just one game ?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

how much does the committee keep in mind two starters were out ? If it's just one game ?

In this hypothetical, Duke would be either a 1 or a 2. They dig pretty deep into the weeds for those kinds of decisions.

[UrinalCake]

Kinda depends on how long Tre is out and whether we avoid any more injuries. But my optimistic guess is we split with UVA and the CHeats and then lose one more, either VT or maybe Louisville. So 14-4 in conference. 13-5 would still be really good against this schedule. Win the ACCT and we’d be a 1 seed, lose in the semis or final and we’re a 2.

[Kedsy]

Q2. How many losses can Duke have and get a one seed?

In the past 10 years, there have been four #1-seeds with 6 losses and four #1 seeds with 7 losses. So clearly having 6 or 7 losses would not be disqualifying. Really, it depends in part on how many losses the other #1-seed contenders have, something that's hard to predict at this stage.


Q1. How many losses do you think we will have ? Reg season I mean, not including acc tourney.

My guess is we'll have 4 or 5 losses, going into the ACCT. I'll be very surprised if we have as many as the 7 losses as you predict. Assuming Tre comes back relatively quickly and fully healed, and assuming no further major injuries.

[CameronBornAndBred]

8961

[duke2x]

In the past 10 years, there have been four #1-seeds with 6 losses and four #1 seeds with 7 losses. So clearly having 6 or 7 losses would not be disqualifying. Really, it depends in part on how many losses the other #1-seed contenders have, something that's hard to predict at this stage.

The "eye test" and pundit opinions have a sneaky way of influencing things even if they should not. Healthy Duke has managed to be #1 in the polls over undefeated MI and UVA. If healthy, I don't see Duke being inconsistent enough by the end of the year to lose 7, and I don't see the media falling out of love with Duke until next year. Gonzaga, Auburn, and Texas Tech are holding up to be top 10 wins (and losses) with UK in the top 25. Resume + media is usually enough to be a #1 seed with 6-7 losses.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This is sort of silly, as it depends so largely on what happens across the rest of the NCAA.

[YmoBeThere]

This is sort of silly, as it depends so largely on what happens across the rest of the NCAA.

There is a lot of time between games this week.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This is sort of silly, as it depends so largely on what happens across the rest of the NCAA.

Yeah, kinda silly, but fun. But it's true: for example, if Virginia, Tennessee, Michigan and Gonzaga keep relatively clean records....they could all be top seeds regardless of what Duke does. It's going to be hard for Virginia, Tennessee and Michigan to do that in their leagues....so rooting for Tennessee to get upset a few times, and for them and Kentucky to beat each other...and for Michigan and Michigan State to keep each other off the top lines....is a pro Duke way to look at it.

[Troublemaker]

There are some under-estimates of Duke's chances in this thread.

Even after the Syracuse loss, Duke is still the third #1 seed behind UVA and Michigan (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/)

As scottdude8 keeps pointing out in his NET threads, Duke has more good wins or as many good wins as any team in the country.

I'm not sure any team has better scalps than Kentucky (neutral), Auburn (neutral), Indiana (home), Texas Tech (neutral), FSU(away).

[jv001]

There are some under-estimates of Duke's chances in this thread.

Even after the Syracuse loss, Duke is still the third #1 seed behind UVA and Michigan (http://www.bracketmatrix.com/)

As scottdude8 keeps pointing out in his NET threads, Duke has more good wins or as many good wins as any team in the country.

I'm not sure any team has better scalps than Kentucky (neutral), Auburn (neutral), Indiana (home), Texas Tech (neutral), FSU(away).

I'm on the positive side of this simply because Coach K has said that Tre is not going to be out many games. With Tre in the lineup, our defense is top 1-5 in the country and it's been a long time that we've had this good a defense. Even though we have a pretty good offense, defense has been this teams calling card and I look for that to continue. I'll go with 4 losses, with one of them being tonight against a very good Virginia team even if it's in Cameron. I'll also be rooting for all the teams that Duke has played so far this season. Especially the better ones. Yeh, that means Cuse, except against us in the rematch. GoDuke!

[slower]

Kinda depends on how long Tre is out and whether we avoid any more injuries. But my optimistic guess is we split with UVA and the CHeats and then lose one more, either VT or maybe Louisville. So 14-4 in conference. 13-5 would still be really good against this schedule. Win the ACCT and we’d be a 1 seed, lose in the semis or final and we’re a 2.

Sounds about right.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Kinda depends on how long Tre is out and whether we avoid any more injuries. But my optimistic guess is we split with UVA and the CHeats and then lose one more, either VT or maybe Louisville. So 14-4 in conference. 13-5 would still be really good against this schedule. Win the ACCT and we’d be a 1 seed, lose in the semis or final and we’re a 2.

I don't think there is much difference based on ACC tournament.....other than an early flame out or a shocking team winning the ACCT.

[uh_no]

I don't think there is much difference based on ACC tournament...other than an early flame out or a shocking team winning the ACCT.

this is my observation. It might affect relative seeding within a conference, but if evaluating, like, duke vs kansas, the committee doesn't put really undue weight on the tournament above the fact that it is more game data.

If duke were to beat uva in the acc tourney final, for instance, it would help them because they beat virginia, not because they won the ACCT. Obviously it will matter some small amount, and vary from year to year....but most of what I've observed over the years is the committee saying "yeah we alreayd had them as X seed before the final.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

this is my observation. It might affect relative seeding within a conference, but if evaluating, like, duke vs kansas, the committee doesn't put really undue weight on the tournament above the fact that it is more game data.

If duke were to beat uva in the acc tourney final, for instance, it would help them because they beat virginia, not because they won the ACCT. Obviously it will matter some small amount, and vary from year to year...but most of what I've observed over the years is the committee saying "yeah we alreayd had them as X seed before the final.

Then there's chronology....the brackets are pretty much filled out before the last few conference finals take place.....so there's not a lot of time or versatility for the finals.

[gofurman]

This is sort of silly, as it depends so largely on what happens across the rest of the NCAA.

I don't deny. But as fans it's fun to think on these things etc. at least for some of us

[Tripping William]

I don't think there is much difference based on ACC tournament....other than an early flame out or a shocking team winning the ACCT.

I don’t disagree (yeah, double negative), but will just note that an early flameout matters. Duke’s 2013 quarterfinal loss to Maryland was brutal, landing us in Louisville’s region.

I know: Too soon.

[CDu]

Well, the win yesterday likely both decreases the first number and increases the second number.