scottdude8
01-15-2019, 11:34 AM
Regarding the loss: Historically, mid-January seems to have been the time where Duke teams, especially freshmen led teams, have hit the proverbial "wall" and suffered questionable losses. The 2015 team (that, remember, ended up winning it all) lost back-to-back games by double digits, including a home loss to unranked Miami, on January 11 and 13. They went on to win every game the rest of the season against teams that weren't Notre Dame. Last year we lost by double digits on the road to N.C. State on January 6. Even the senior-laden 2010 National Title team lost 2 of 4 (and, extending out, 3 of 7) in mid-January upsets. The context: no matter how good, every Duke team seems to get handed a tough upset loss around this time of year. One loss, no matter how bad, doesn't ruin the hopes for the season.
Regarding Tre: First, we all need to take a breath and remember that the initial pain felt during an injury isn't immediately correlated with its severity. A couple games ago (I believe against NC State), UNC's Cam Johnson went down with what looked to be a knee injury, and based off of the anguish on his face I was sure he tore his ACL. Turned out it was just cramps and he was fine for the next game. Second, a shoulder injury is, except in the potential worst-case scenario (which it seems for all intents and purposes we avoided), not as serious for a basketball player as a leg injury. Third, don't forget we had a similar situation with Daniel Jones this football season (with a broken collarbone, arguably a worse injury than any sort of sprain that Tre has) and he returned in a matter of weeks at relatively full strength. The context: We have no idea how serious Tre's injury is... but I would say it is significantly more likely we're looking at a matter of weeks as opposed to a matter of months. While that makes the immediate future (i.e. Virginia) tougher, it doesn't ruin the hopes for the season overall.
Regarding Jack White: Captain Jack is averaging 26 minutes a game this season. He played 42 last night. Last season he averaged FIVE. It's entirely possible, nay probable, and in my mind understandable, that he may be hitting a bit of a wall... which would definitely explain his poor shooting the last two games. The context: Jack White hasn't suddenly become a horrible shooter. He's had two bad games, in the "grindiest" part of the season, when he may be dealing with fatigue. He is still contributing with his effort and leadership (and at least against FSU his defense... that was also obviously an issue last night). A few tough games when you've seen a five-fold increase in your minutes per game is completely understandable.
Regarding seeding: There were a lot of posts last night about how this loss ruined our shot at a No. 1 seed. I've been way too interested in the NET rankings and whatnot this year, as many of you know. Even with a bad loss (if you look at it out of the injury context), this team still has a stellar resume. Our 5 Q1 wins still are tied for the most in the country, and those wins themselves are more impressive than the typical Q1 wins (in the most recent rankings Texas Tech was NET 4, Kentucky 11, Auburn 17, Indiana 21 and FSU 26, although obviously that'll change with the later two losing last night). We still have the opportunity for more quality wins (2 games each against UNC and UVA, at Va Tech, at home vs. NC State, etc.) than arguably any other contender for a No. 1 seed (outside of UVA, obviously). As much love as both Michigan and MSU are getting, I'd be SHOCKED if the B1G gets two No. 1 seeds (especially since I forsee some trouble for MSU very soon). The SEC is only getting one No. 1 seed at most, and it's going to have to be Tennessee at this point. The mid-majors likely aren't getting one this year. Kansas or Texas Tech could get a No. 1 seed but they both still have to face the meat of their Big 12 schedules, and our resumes stack up very well against either team. The context: Duke still should more than control its own destiny for getting a No. 1 seed, and at this point it would take a disaster for us to drop below the 2 line in all likelihood. Personally, I think a Duke team with at least one win against UVA, at least one win against UNC, and no more than 5-6 losses still gets a No. 1 seed despite a bad loss (remember how last year Kansas got a 1 seed based on their overall resume despite some really bad losses).
Let's all breathe, hope for good news regarding Tre, and remember that if anyone can whether this storm it's Coach K.
Regarding Tre: First, we all need to take a breath and remember that the initial pain felt during an injury isn't immediately correlated with its severity. A couple games ago (I believe against NC State), UNC's Cam Johnson went down with what looked to be a knee injury, and based off of the anguish on his face I was sure he tore his ACL. Turned out it was just cramps and he was fine for the next game. Second, a shoulder injury is, except in the potential worst-case scenario (which it seems for all intents and purposes we avoided), not as serious for a basketball player as a leg injury. Third, don't forget we had a similar situation with Daniel Jones this football season (with a broken collarbone, arguably a worse injury than any sort of sprain that Tre has) and he returned in a matter of weeks at relatively full strength. The context: We have no idea how serious Tre's injury is... but I would say it is significantly more likely we're looking at a matter of weeks as opposed to a matter of months. While that makes the immediate future (i.e. Virginia) tougher, it doesn't ruin the hopes for the season overall.
Regarding Jack White: Captain Jack is averaging 26 minutes a game this season. He played 42 last night. Last season he averaged FIVE. It's entirely possible, nay probable, and in my mind understandable, that he may be hitting a bit of a wall... which would definitely explain his poor shooting the last two games. The context: Jack White hasn't suddenly become a horrible shooter. He's had two bad games, in the "grindiest" part of the season, when he may be dealing with fatigue. He is still contributing with his effort and leadership (and at least against FSU his defense... that was also obviously an issue last night). A few tough games when you've seen a five-fold increase in your minutes per game is completely understandable.
Regarding seeding: There were a lot of posts last night about how this loss ruined our shot at a No. 1 seed. I've been way too interested in the NET rankings and whatnot this year, as many of you know. Even with a bad loss (if you look at it out of the injury context), this team still has a stellar resume. Our 5 Q1 wins still are tied for the most in the country, and those wins themselves are more impressive than the typical Q1 wins (in the most recent rankings Texas Tech was NET 4, Kentucky 11, Auburn 17, Indiana 21 and FSU 26, although obviously that'll change with the later two losing last night). We still have the opportunity for more quality wins (2 games each against UNC and UVA, at Va Tech, at home vs. NC State, etc.) than arguably any other contender for a No. 1 seed (outside of UVA, obviously). As much love as both Michigan and MSU are getting, I'd be SHOCKED if the B1G gets two No. 1 seeds (especially since I forsee some trouble for MSU very soon). The SEC is only getting one No. 1 seed at most, and it's going to have to be Tennessee at this point. The mid-majors likely aren't getting one this year. Kansas or Texas Tech could get a No. 1 seed but they both still have to face the meat of their Big 12 schedules, and our resumes stack up very well against either team. The context: Duke still should more than control its own destiny for getting a No. 1 seed, and at this point it would take a disaster for us to drop below the 2 line in all likelihood. Personally, I think a Duke team with at least one win against UVA, at least one win against UNC, and no more than 5-6 losses still gets a No. 1 seed despite a bad loss (remember how last year Kansas got a 1 seed based on their overall resume despite some really bad losses).
Let's all breathe, hope for good news regarding Tre, and remember that if anyone can whether this storm it's Coach K.