MBB: Duke vs Virginia (Sat, Jan 19, 6pm ET, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Troublemaker]

Please put your thoughts about the game in this thread.

Note that UVA has a big game tonight against rival VaTech

[Troublemaker]

Those that have predicting future games as if Duke will continue to play exactly like how we played against Cuse last night after Tre went down are being foolish.

Tre's injury happened in the middle of the game, so we had no time to plan/practice/adjust to being without him. Likewise, apparently Cam was a very late scratch and so we weren't prepared to play without him, either. That, plus all the other factors that were mentioned in the pregame thread created a situation where Duke looked worse than what we really are, even without Tre. Both defensively and offensively.

Now that we have 4 full days to prepare and adjust to Tre's (very likely) absence, let's see how we look against UVA on Saturday.

The big thing is we need Cam to be back. I think usually players only miss 1 game with flu-like symptoms, so I think we can count on him for UVA. But it's very possible Cam isn't well enough to practice with the team until Thursday or Friday. Hopefully the mental reps until then will help.

[jv001]

Those that have predicting future games as if Duke will continue to play exactly like how we played against Cuse last night after Tre went down are being foolish.

Tre's injury happened in the middle of the game, so we had no time to plan/practice/adjust to being without him. Likewise, apparently Cam was a very late scratch and so we weren't prepared to play without him, either. That, plus all the other factors that were mentioned in the pregame thread created a situation where Duke looked worse than what we really are, even without Tre. Both defensively and offensively.

Now that we have 4 full days to prepare and adjust to Tre's (very likely) absence, let's see how we look against UVA on Saturday.

The big thing is we need Cam to be back. I think usually players only miss 1 game with flu-like symptoms, so I think we can count on him for UVA. But it's very possible Cam isn't well enough to practice with the team until Thursday or Friday. Hopefully the mental reps until then will help.

Tre's injury and Cam's illness couldn't have come at a worse time. With those two out, Jack White was moved(at game time) into the starting rotation. I don't know if that had anything to do with his horrible shooting night but tired legs at the end of the game probably did. Tre's injury took away our best defender and best distributor for our wings. Coach K will have several days to get the guys up to speed and Alex and Jack will know their roles come game time. We do have the best coach in college basketball on our side. Not that he doesn't make mistakes, but his positives are far more than his negatives. GoDuke!

[Rich]

Those that have predicting future games as if Duke will continue to play exactly like how we played against Cuse last night after Tre went down are being foolish.

Tre's injury happened in the middle of the game, so we had no time to plan/practice/adjust to being without him. Likewise, apparently Cam was a very late scratch and so we weren't prepared to play without him, either. That, plus all the other factors that were mentioned in the pregame thread created a situation where Duke looked worse than what we really are, even without Tre. Both defensively and offensively.

Now that we have 4 full days to prepare and adjust to Tre's (very likely) absence, let's see how we look against UVA on Saturday.

The big thing is we need Cam to be back. I think usually players only miss 1 game with flu-like symptoms, so I think we can count on him for UVA. But it's very possible Cam isn't well enough to practice with the team until Thursday or Friday. Hopefully the mental reps until then will help.

I hate to be Mr. Negative, but the flu this year (if he has the flu) is a really bad strain. A coworker of mine got it over Christmas break and is still struggling. Plus, there's a pretty good chance others on the team have been infected considering they were all confined in a plane during the trip back from Florida. I assume Cam has roommates on the team. Oh, and for good measure, we haven't yet had our obligatory foot injury! Our team is in a very precarious state right now. Sorry to have to vent and dump all of that on ya'll and no, I don't feel any better.

[jv001]

I hate to be Mr. Negative, but the flu this year (if he has the flu) is a really bad strain. A coworker of mine got it over Christmas break and is still struggling. Plus, there's a pretty good chance others on the team have been infected considering they were all confined in a plane during the trip back from Florida. I assume Cam has roommates on the team. Oh, and for good measure, we haven't yet had our obligatory foot injury! Our team is in a very precarious state right now. Sorry to have to vent and dump all of that on ya'll and no, I don't feel any better.

As I was just beginning to feel better after last night. Wow. :cool:GoDuke!

[Saratoga2]

I posted comments on the PhaseIII string that I probably should have posted here. Trying to see some positive things the coaches can ask the team to do be be competitive.

[Troublemaker]

I hate to be Mr. Negative, but the flu this year (if he has the flu) is a really bad strain. A coworker of mine got it over Christmas break and is still struggling. Plus, there's a pretty good chance others on the team have been infected considering they were all confined in a plane during the trip back from Florida. I assume Cam has roommates on the team. Oh, and for good measure, we haven't yet had our obligatory foot injury! Our team is in a very precarious state right now. Sorry to have to vent and dump all of that on ya'll and no, I don't feel any better.

Aren't there usually different strains running around, some worse than others?

Hopefully the Duke medical staff and, I imagine, constant IVs can play a positive role.

[PackMan97]

Now that we have 4 full days to prepare and adjust to Tre's (very likely) absence, let's see how we look against UVA on Saturday.

If only Duke had a Hall of Fame coach that could do the adjusting...

If you'd like...I'm sure State will trade you one of our guards :)

[CDu]

Well, at least we get a lot of time to talk about yesterday's game, amiright? Anywho, I will distract myself now by writing up the scouting report for UVa. Though we do have a number of UVa fans that can chime in as well. Here goes:

UVa is a terrific team. They are extremely well-coached, extremely disciplined, extremely experienced, and now have a fair amount of talent on the court as well. It's not a good time to be facing them without our PG and perhaps without (or possibly with a limited) Reddish as well. But, such appears to be the case. So, time to make lemonade.

UVa is methodical. They are patient on both ends, and make every possession count. On defense, they do everything at an elite level except block shots and force turnovers. They run the pack line defense, and Bennett has yet another group of stout players to run it to perfection. It's a frustrating defense designed to protect the paint and minimize easy looks. Generally speaking, the weakness of the pack line is 3pt shooting. Which is, unfortunately, not our strength. To beat them, we'll need to be well organized and pick our spots and find good shots. Or, we'll need to beat them in transition. Which is, of course, hard to do when they don't turn it over at all.

On offense, UVa shoots extremely well from 3 and from the FT line. They take good shots, and they rarely turn it over. They slow the game down to maximize their defensive presence, but they still get it done efficiently on offense. This will be roughly the second-toughest game we face short of a deep tourney run. They are no joke.

Centers: Jack Salt (6'10", 250lb fifth-year senior from New Zealand) is the starting center. Salt is a big, rugged, super-strong, but entirely unskilled (offensively) big. He rebounds well offensively, and is more of a positional defender. He knows his role, and makes no effort to step outside of it. Salt will commit his fair share of fouls (2.6 per 20 mpg), but that's okay because he's not asked to play 30+ mpg. Jay Huff (7'1", 230lb redshirt sophomore) is the backup center. Huff is a terrific rebounder and shotblocker, and also has nice shooting range. That said, he plays fairly sparingly (~10mpg).

Forwards: Mamadi Diakite (6'9", 225lb redshirt junior from Guinea) is the starter. Diakite is a solid shotblocker and okay rebounder, with a not terrible jumpshot. He's not the most fluid with the ball in his hands though, and like Salt he doesn't try to force things on offense. But he plays his role solidly. Braxton Key (6'8", 225lb junior transfer from Alabama) is the primary option off the bench in this role. Key is a terrific rebounder and has good shooting range. He's quite capable of putting up big point totals as the Hoos' sixth man.

Wings: DeAndre Hunter (6'7", 225lb redshirt sophomore) is one of two headliners here for the Wahoos. Hunter had a breakout season in the second half of last year as a second-year freshman. But he chose to return to school and UVa appreciates that. Hunter has continued how he finished last year, and is deserving of a spot on the All-ACC team. He's extremely athletic, extremely strong, versatile defensively, and can score at all three levels offensively. He'll be playing in the NBA next year almost certainly. Alongside Hunter is the other big name in Kyle Guy (6'2", 175lb junior). Guy has long since dropped the man bun, but his game hasn't dropped off at all. He's electric offensively: a terrific leaper, good ballhandler, and an elite shooter. He's unfortunately undersized for his natural position (SG), so his NBA prospects may be a bit more limited. But he's a first-team All-ACC level of player. Just an absolute stud scorer. He will play as much as his legs can handle.

Guards: Ty Jerome (6'5", 195lb junior) runs the show. Jerome is a stout defender, very physical despite not necessarily being overly athletic (not that he's an athletic liability, just that he's not explosive like Hunter and Guy). Jerome is a steady hand as a point guard, crafty enough to get his shot in tough spots. He's not really a break-you-down PG, but he is a terrific distributor and game manager. Jerome is also a fantastic shooter. He and Guy work to make the offense go, and he Guy and Hunter take the VAST majority of the shots for UVa. Kihei Clark (5'9", 155lb freshman) is the backup PG. Clark is a LITTLE fella, but he's lightning quick and a dynamo with the ball in his hands. His size really limits him overall, but he's a pesky presence when he is in there. Jerome will often move off-ball alongside Clark as well.

The Hoos play a 7.5 man rotation, and will generally play smaller whenever Salt is out. They slow the pace, which keeps them out of serious foul trouble most of the time. It will be a meatgrinder of a game for us. Hopefully our young team finds themselves up to the challenge!

[simplyluvin]

Key questions that I have for this game:

Overall, what is our psyche without Tre in the lineup?
Who handles the ball and how do we handle the rigorous ball pressure that the hoos bring?
Can we shoot from the perimeter? There will be little to no dribble-drive opportunities, so that largely negates RJ's strength. Pack line is maddening that way.
Can we up our half-court defensive intensity and keep it up for 40 minutes? We saw the impact when Tre was out in terms of intensity, although overall we played OK.
What is Zion's game against the pack line? Will he find space within 5 feet to be effective?

[FerryFor50]

I think the outcome of the UVA game really depends on how good you think UVA is this year. Is their 15-0 record a product of their schedule? Probably not. They've proven over the years that they're a tough, solid defensive team.

Their best wins were over Wisconsin (kenpom 14) and Maryland (kenpom 19). They also handled Clemson and FSU way easier than Duke handled Clemson and FSU, but have a total strength of schedule ranked 128th.

They're #2 in defense and #6 in offense.

Their best players are Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome (who hit a huge shot against Duke last y ear) and Deandre Hunter. If Cam plays, I expect him to get assigned to Hunter. Missing Tre will hurt a lot in guarding either Guy or Jerome. Barrett will get assigned to one of those two.

As for bigs, UVA has a stretch 4 in Jay Huff (Duke recruited him a bit). Huff put up 11 against Clemson and has shot 55% from 3 this year, but hasn't taken a ton. They also have moving screen machine Jack Salt. I expect Bolden will be on him.

Mamadi Diakite will be a handful on the glass, I suppose. But he'll also likely get assigned to Zion, who outweighs him by about 70lbs.

Hopefully Cam plays and Duke shakes off the loss against Syracuse. We'll need Jack to start knocking down shots again, too.

I suspect UVA will be a loss, especially if Cam doesn't play. But at least it's at Cameron.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Probably a jinx for me to be posting here before the VT game, but I like this place a lot more than Techsideline, so here we are. Some scattered thoughts based on what's been said already...

- Jack Salt. As has been mentioned, screening is probably the biggest thing he brings to the table. (I'd quibble with some assessments of those screens, but that's neither here nor there :)) Moving or stationary, the man was chiseled from marble by God himself. I can't imagine how well he must be doing with the UVA coeds with that physique and his Kiwi accent. All of which is to say that he is a particularly bad "matchup" for Tre Jones in his current condition (although it sounds like he's not likely to play).
- Huff is the polar opposite. He's offensively skilled and gets moved around by a stiff gust of wind. He had the best game of his career against Clemson, but I can't picture him holding up against Bolden or DeLaurier, let alone (gulp) Zion.
- Speaking of which...who guards Zion? Not that anyone has any players who are truly equipped, but UVA at least has a system to work with. I suspect the lineup will start Jerome-Guy-Hunter-Diakite-Salt, and Hunter will draw him first. Key and Diakite will also wind up taking turns. The referees will probably play a part in how it all goes.
- Kihei Clark was referred to as 5-9 on this thread, and that's probably his program height. Him a widdle guy. But he's quietly one of the amazing stories of college hoops this year. Generously listed at 5-9, the 394th-ranked player in his class, and he was starting for a top 5 program within six games. He's fallen off since he broke his wrist, particularly offensively, but he's valuable in getting Jerome some rest and time off the ball. Weirdly, I think if Jones can't go, that limits Clark's effectiveness since his main contribution is in hounding opposing point guards. I don't know that he can be as effective against, say, R.J. Barrett.
- Hunter has been something of an enigma this year. His stats look good at the end, but he seems weirdly passive. Maybe I'm expecting too much, but he needs to take control more for UVA to be a true national contender.
- Guy tends to have huge first halves and quiet second halves. I don't know if teams are scheming him out of games or not, but it's something to watch.

That's all I've got for now.

[dukelifer]

I think the outcome of the UVA game really depends on how good you think UVA is this year. Is their 15-0 record a product of their schedule? Probably not. They've proven over the years that they're a tough, solid defensive team.

Their best wins were over Wisconsin (kenpom 14) and Maryland (kenpom 19). They also handled Clemson and FSU way easier than Duke handled Clemson and FSU, but have a total strength of schedule ranked 128th.

They're #2 in defense and #6 in offense.

Their best players are Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome (who hit a huge shot against Duke last y ear) and Deandre Hunter. If Cam plays, I expect him to get assigned to Hunter. Missing Tre will hurt a lot in guarding either Guy or Jerome. Barrett will get assigned to one of those two.

As for bigs, UVA has a stretch 4 in Jay Huff (Duke recruited him a bit). Huff put up 11 against Clemson and has shot 55% from 3 this year, but hasn't taken a ton. They also have moving screen machine Jack Salt. I expect Bolden will be on him.

Mamadi Diakite will be a handful on the glass, I suppose. But he'll also likely get assigned to Zion, who outweighs him by about 70lbs.

Hopefully Cam plays and Duke shakes off the loss against Syracuse. We'll need Jack to start knocking down shots again, too.

I suspect UVA will be a loss, especially if Cam doesn't play. But at least it's at Cameron.
UVa will frustrate this young team- they do what they do very well. They take time off the clock- they run their sets patiently and they have some really good 3 -pt shooters and Duke's 3 point D has been a weakness all year. Their packline D looks solvable but few have figured it out. Duke will need to shoot it well and limit mistakes. Tough game with Tre- even tougher without him. But Duke should be underdogs at home- so they should act accordingly.

[DavidBenAkiva]

If you haven't seen it yet, I highly recommend this review of Virginia's Blocker/Mover offense from Jordan Sperber, AKA hoopsvision68


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNIXs2DJxF4

[DavidBenAkiva]

If you haven't seen it yet, I highly recommend this review of Virginia's Blocker/Mover offense from Jordan Sperber, AKA hoopsvision68


Some thoughts:

1) I wouldn't be surprised if we see a zone defense against UVA. While that seems absurd given their great shooting, it also takes Jack Salt and Mamadi Diakite out of their offensive roles and limits the slips and backdoor cuts. It bogs down the cutting action of their entire offense. Without Tre Jones able to apply pressure on Ty Jerome and Kehei Clark, one of the best things Duke could do is maximize the absurd length on the team - R.J., Cam, Zion, Javin, and Marques are a pretty great package to play zone, disrupting passing lanes, preventing all that blocking/moving action of UVA. Against UVA last year, Duke was very good on defense against a similar lineup. They held UVA to 99.6 points per 100 possessions (PPP) and just 6-22 shooting from 3. It was on offense where Duke struggled against Virginia. After the Duke game last year, UVA put together a string of +100 PPP games stretching all the way until their eventual loss to UMBC.

2) There will be time to prepare. Duke had 1 day between an emotional road win against FSU to prepare for the Syracuse zone. The team now has a full 4 days to prep for the Cavaliers. I think that is huge. And hopefully Cam Reddish and everyone else on the team can be fully healthy and ready to play. Never count out Coach K's ability to game plan.

3) It'll get easier after this... for a little while. Injuries are never good, but the timing is about as best as it could be. Duke will have a relatively easy schedule for about 2 1/2 weeks after the UVA game with matches at Pitt, home against Georgia Tech, at Notre Dame, and home against St. John's and Boston College before traveling to Charlottesville. The game at UVA starts a much rougher slate of the ACC schedule with games at Louisville, home against NC State and UNC, and then at Syracuse and VA Tech.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Point of order...while Salt and Diakite will both start, I doubt they'll wind up playing all that much together. UVA is at its best with Key at the 4.

[Reddevil]

JWill made a great point last night. With Tre as an on the ball defender, the opposing PG has to turn his back to his teammates. This effects vision and passing. Without Tre the opposing PG's can bring the ball up facing his teammates. This of course is bad for Duke. I wonder if a combination of full court pressure and zone can help to disrupt the ease at which the opposition can play. It may also be a way to prevent the interior lobs for dunks that have plagued the team for the past two games. The coaching staff will figure it out. I am just spit-balling here.

[devildeac]

And starting at (point:rolleyes:) guard at 6-7ish and 270ish...

...Zion Williamson!!

;)

[Billy Dat]

After circling this game on the calendar and getting psyched for a contrast in styles for early season ACC bragging rights, I now contemplate a marquee match-up where I have absolutely no idea how we'll play on either end of the court. We have lost the head of both our offense and defense.

Considering UVA's dominance using sleep-inducing pace, I find it hard to believe we'll pivot in that direction. I also hope we don't abandon our defense and resort to zone.

The only positive I can glean is that, like 2001 after Boozer went down, it will be interesting to see how radically K changes things up. Assuming Cam is back and everyone else can go, the only advantage we have is that UVA won't be able to prepare for an approach they have never seen on film this season.

If I had to guess at what we'll do...

-Start Bolden and White, bring Javin off the bench. AOC is now a part of the regular rotation.
-We'll mix things up with All of Zion, RJ and Reddish sharing the responsibility of bringing the ball up. I think we'll need to provide different initial looks to be effective on offense.
-Without Tre, do we continue to try and pressure to speed them up and create live ball turnovers and to push pace? I think we have to. In 2001, K's move against UNC was to stick Battier at the top of the defense. This team doesn't have anyone that defensively savvy. We definitely need Z on the boards...maybe we do something similar with Cam and have him up top?

I wonder if, like 2001, K stayed at Cameron all night to game plan? Maybe, like 2001, Debbie K swung by CIS to check on the old man at Mickie's request and, as she peeked into his office (after scanning her eyeball and reciting passwords in 6 dead languages), he looked up and said, "Do you think Brennan Besser can guard Kyle Guy?

I'll keep thinking...

[Troublemaker]

But Duke should be underdogs at home- so they should act accordingly.

Some of it depends on tonight's UVA-VaTech result, but I expect Vegas to open Duke as slight favorites for Saturday's game, as surprising as that will be to some on here.

Now, I don't know if Duke will close as the favorite, as I expect money to pour in on UVA, much of it from Duke fans.

[devildeac]

Conversation in a labyrinth in CIS, February, 1992:

Unknown assistant: "Hey, Coach, it's confirmed that Hurley has fractured the 2nd metatarsal in his right foot. It's over."

K: "@#$% and &%$#. But, that also means my point guard just grew eight inches."

(diabolical laughter)

Well, maybe not *exactly* as it occurred :o.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Conversation in a labyrinth in CIS, February, 1992:

Unknown assistant: "Hey, Coach, it's confirmed that Hurley has fractured the 2nd metatarsal in his right foot. It's over."

K: "@#$% and &%$#. But, that also means my point guard just grew eight inches."

(diabolical laughter)

Well, maybe not *exactly* as it occurred :o.

....and I've gone over this year's roster, and while there are some amazing talents on there, I don't see another Grant Hill.....

I think we'll be playing with a whole new alignment. Not sure what that will be....

[dukelifer]

Some of it depends on tonight's UVA-VaTech result, but I expect Vegas to open Duke as slight favorites for Saturday's game, as surprising as that will be to some on here.

Now, I don't know if Duke will close as the favorite, as I expect money to pour in on UVA, much of it from Duke fans.

I was assuming a UVa win tonight- but then again - stuff happens in games- sometimes bad- so we will know more after the game.

[COYS]

Some thoughts:

1) I wouldn't be surprised if we see a zone defense against UVA. While that seems absurd given their great shooting, it also takes Jack Salt and Mamadi Diakite out of their offensive roles and limits the slips and backdoor cuts. It bogs down the cutting action of their entire offense. Without Tre Jones able to apply pressure on Ty Jerome and Kehei Clark, one of the best things Duke could do is maximize the absurd length on the team - R.J., Cam, Zion, Javin, and Marques are a pretty great package to play zone, disrupting passing lanes, preventing all that blocking/moving action of UVA. Against UVA last year, Duke was very good on defense against a similar lineup. They held UVA to 99.6 points per 100 possessions (PPP) and just 6-22 shooting from 3. It was on offense where Duke struggled against Virginia. After the Duke game last year, UVA put together a string of +100 PPP games stretching all the way until their eventual loss to UMBC.

2) There will be time to prepare. Duke had 1 day between an emotional road win against FSU to prepare for the Syracuse zone. The team now has a full 4 days to prep for the Cavaliers. I think that is huge. And hopefully Cam Reddish and everyone else on the team can be fully healthy and ready to play. Never count out Coach K's ability to game plan.

3) It'll get easier after this... for a little while. Injuries are never good, but the timing is about as best as it could be. Duke will have a relatively easy schedule for about 2 1/2 weeks after the UVA game with matches at Pitt, home against Georgia Tech, at Notre Dame, and home against St. John's and Boston College before traveling to Charlottesville. The game at UVA starts a much rougher slate of the ACC schedule with games at Louisville, home against NC State and UNC, and then at Syracuse and VA Tech.

There are so many interesting strategic choices to be made. I'm glad that Cam will likely be back, as we really missed his length, quickness, and savvy on the defensive end, yesterday. It hurts to lose Tre, but there are still a lot of talented pieces on our roster.

I anticipate that we'll replace Tre with Jack and use a lot of our 3/4 court soft press to slow UVA down as they bring the ball up the court. Coach K has used this a lot against UVA and it has the advantage of reducing the time UVA has to get into its slow-paced offensive sets. I'm skeptical of Duke pulling out a really good zone out of nowhere (although it's possible they've been practicing it a little on the side), but I wouldn't be surprised to see the defense drop a little deeper in man-to-man. Tre is an exceptional defender, but the team still has a lot of defensive talent even in his absence, it just might look a little different. One good thing about this game is that UVA doesn't really try to spread the floor and beat guys one-on-one from the top of the key. If we're using a bigger wing player to defend the point like Cam or RJ, they are less likely to have their lateral quickness challenged over and over again.

On the other hand, UVA's offensive AND defensive systems are designed to wear down opponents. Defenders are constantly running through screens. Offenses struggle to find driving lanes. It takes a lot of focus on both ends of the court to beat UVA. Coach K has a great record against Bennett, even when Bennett has had his best teams. Duke lost a close game against UVA with the 2014 Jabari/Rodney team that struggled mightily on defense. Then, of course, Duke lost a very winnable game last season at Cameron. Otherwise, Coach K has fared really well against UVA. That said, one of the reasons Duke has done so well against UVA is that Duke usually has impeccable spacing on offense and a variety of players who excel one on one. While we still have the latter, it remains to be seen how much Tre's absence hurts the former. Last year's Duke team suffered from spacing issues and was one of the teams to lose to the Cavs. I don't think that's a coincidence. RJ, Cam, and Zion will all have to help get each other the ball in their preferred spaces on the court, something that Tre is a master at orchestrating. We'll also need Jack, Cam, and RJ to hit some threes (and it wouldn't hurt if Zion hit one or two, either).

Ultimately, I think we will need a huge game from Zion. As amazing as Marvin was last season, Zion has been even better this year . . . or at least more versatile with similar efficiancy. UVA is not a great shot-blocking team, so Zion should be his usual unstoppable self if he can get close to the basket. He's also amazing at scoring over/through/around multiple defenders that even a perfectly-executed defensive possession is often not enough to stop him. UVA's defense is exceptional, but so is Zion's ability to score on basically anyone. If he's able to get buckets against a set UVA defense, it will loosen things up for the rest of the team.

[Troublemaker]

Zone, not as the primary defense, but as a tactic to rest and reduce fouls in-game when necessary is probably a good idea. And if Tre is out more than, say, 3 weeks, pulling the redshirt off Joey Baker might also be a good idea.

On initial reaction, I would've rejected either of those two ideas, but you have to play around with minutes for a Tre-less team to understand. One thing that's underrated about Tre and RJ is that they gobble up tons and tons of minutes, and now we have to replace one of our two ironmen. Can we really count on Cam to stay out of foul trouble and play 34-36 mpg? Likewise, can Zion's physical game support 34-36 mpg? Do we really just want to play RJ 40 mpg from here on out? Can Alex really give us 24-26 good minutes a game?

The other option is to up Javin and Marques' minutes and have them play together some of the time, which is unappealing. Likewise with significantly upping JGold's minutes, imo. If Cam picks up 2 quick fouls, I'd prefer to go zone, or I'd prefer to get Joey some minutes.

[cato]

...and I've gone over this year's roster, and while there are some amazing talents on there, I don't see another Grant Hill....



Wait. Doesn’t this team have a few of the more Grant-Hill-like players than prior teams?

[dukelifer]

Wait. Doesn’t this team have a few of the more Grant-Hill-like players than prior teams?

Sadly no. None of these guys will play in 3 of 4 FF's and win 2.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Wait. Doesn’t this team have a few of the more Grant-Hill-like players than prior teams?

I don't think so. There are a few who may be as good, or better, eventually, but I don't think one that really fits the Hill model in the year he subbed for Bobby H. I don't think K will try a straight one for one sub this year like he did Hill for Hurley. I may be wrong, and I think all three of the other frosh bring some of those skills....I see the ball handling more by committee. I've no idea what he will do on D. With Tre, this is great M2M team. Without? I'm not sure....

[Lar77]

I don't think so. There are a few who may be as good, or better, eventually, but I don't think one that really fits the Hill model in the year he subbed for Bobby H. I don't think K will try a straight one for one sub this year like he did Hill for Hurley. I may be wrong, and I think all three of the other frosh bring some of those skills...I see the ball handling more by committee. I've no idea what he will do on D. With Tre, this is great M2M team. Without? I'm not sure...

Wait! Do I see an offense built around the second best point guard on our team - 6'7" 285 lbs?

Strike fear in the hearts of those who oppose us.

[cato]

I don't think so. There are a few who may be as good, or better, eventually, but I don't think one that really fits the Hill model in the year he subbed for Bobby H. I don't think K will try a straight one for one sub this year like he did Hill for Hurley. I may be wrong, and I think all three of the other frosh bring some of those skills...I see the ball handling more by committee. I've no idea what he will do on D. With Tre, this is great M2M team. Without? I'm not sure...

Curious who you’ve got above Barrett and Zion on the all time Grant Hill list at Duke?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Curious who you’ve got above Barrett and Zion on the all time Grant Hill list at Duke?

It's NOT ABOVE.....it's OFF TO THE SIDE...different. Grant is different than anyone ever at Duke. So is Zion, but they are not at all alike.

[OldPhiKap]

If I was not a Duke fan, Tony Bennett’s UVA program would be my favorite in the ACC. Good students, great team work, great defense, unselfish play. Lots to admire here.

[dukelion]

I'm fired up for this one.

Even without Tre Virginia has seen nothing close to what Duke will offer.

Not saying we'll win but with all the doom and gloom on various threads one thing gives me comfort above all.....we got Zion and they don't.

Not to go all Walter White but we're still the ones knocking on the door in the middle of the night that you should be afraid of.

Let's do this

[robed deity]

If I was not a Duke fan, Tony Bennett’s UVA program would be my favorite in the ACC. Good students, great team work, great defense, unselfish play. Lots to admire here.

True. Though basketball-wise, I find them boring to watch (a little less so this year) and their stubbornness to not change was a contributing factor in their loss to a 16 seed.

More firepower this year though. Duke has their work cut out.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Sadly no. None of these guys will play in 3 of 4 FF's and win 2.

Do not doubt Alex O’Connell!

[dukelifer]

UVa is playing VTech. They are not athletic but love the three and can shoot them from deep. Duke is not good at defending that shot. Will be an interesting test.

[CameronDuke]

The best defensive point guard in the country Tre Jones will nearly undoubtedly be out for this one and I would also be surprised if Cam plays at 100% since he has been battling flu like symptoms so Duke has that going against them. With 4 days to prepare I do fully expect Coach K to be in GOAT mode and come up with an impressive game plan to beat UVA.

Watching UVA blow Virginia Tech out of the gym right now though, I'd be shocked if UVA has more than 3-4 losses going into the NCAAT. They are going to give Duke another battle Saturday. Hunter, Guy, and Jerome are ultra talented.

[CameronDuke]

UVA is currently 8-10 from 3 against rival Virginia Tech. I'm not sure if zoning them is the best plan defensively.

Make that 9-11 from 3...

[dukelifer]

UVA is currently 8-10 from 3 against rival Virginia Tech. I'm not sure if zoning them is the best plan defensively.

Make that 9-11 from 3...

UVA will be getting all the ESPN love come Saturday - they live and die by the 3

[UrinalCake]

I've got the answer! Let's get Tyus to come back and pretend to be Tre. He can put on the uniform, we'll have the Duke sports information office announce that Tre has made a miraculous recovery, and nobody will ever know the difference.

[wgl1228]

Tyus just got hurt. I'm not kidding. Ankle injury.

[UrinalCake]

Tyus just got hurt. I'm not kidding. Ankle injury.

Well, there goes that plan. Man, tough break for the Jones family.

Ok, next idea... we get the dude from UMBC who the Crazies are bringing out to actually suit up for us.

[devildeac]

UVA is currently 8-10 from 3 against rival Virginia Tech. I'm not sure if zoning them is the best plan defensively.

Make that 9-11 from 3...

But, have they made a 3/4 court heave yet?

:mad:

[WVDUKEFAN]

We’ve been very unlucky with opponents shooting the 3-ball. It seems they are shooting lights out against us. Anyone can get lucky, but our opponents really seem to hit high percentages against us. I don’t think our defense is bad in all cases either. I don’t know what the answer is.

[CameronDuke]

But, have they made a 3/4 court heave yet?

:mad:

Seriously :(

I'm still hot about that one. How in the heck did that go in? :(

[Pghdukie]

Who was the football player that K brought around to replace the injured Boozer ? I do recall he worked at the White House in the Obama administration. Shame there isn't a PG floating around campus.

[arnie]

Who was the football player that K brought around to replace the injured Boozer ? I do recall he worked at the White House in the Obama administration. Shame there isn't a PG floating around campus.

Reggie Love

[Pghdukie]

Thanks.

[devildeac]

Seriously :(

I'm still hot about that one. How in the heck did that go in? :(

Blind orange luck.

:mad:

[jipops]

While it is nice that there are several days to prepare, it is really hard to not see this being a laugher. Zion is a tough matchup for anyone but he’ll be working much harder on offense than any game before. Cam, Jack, and AOC have to hit a season high of 3’s just to have a decent chance in this. Javin and Marques should focus solely on grabbing boards for kick outs or put backs. I think this game will be tougher on RJ than anyone. He’s not a great shooter and the hoos are really going to shut off the lane on him. I hope people don’t overreact if he has another poor outing. This is a terrible matchup for him and adding facilitating responsibilities makes this even tougher.

Defense - I have no idea what the answer is. I really don’t think it’s a zone but with the length of Cam, RJ, Jack, and Bolden maybe it’s worth a shot for a few possessions. At least in an effort to keep this one respectable.

[duketaylor]

guessing UVA will be favored by about 4, hard to believe. I think UVA is about 12 points better right now unless some news comes out about our health. I'm not one to be negative, just my honest thought. I just watched UVA crush VT in a very emotionally charged game. Plenty of time for the Hoos to prepare for a Durham trip.
UVA had 4 guys hanging out on the 3-point line most of the game and they hit many from outside, unlike many Tony Bennett teams in the past.

We must put 3 or 4 guys on the perimeter on defense vs. their guys and have someone inside, Z or Bolden, to defend the rim/drive. I'm concerned we don't match up well with them given our situation w Tre and Cam.

I do trust K will plan for how we can win with our issues.

Will be a tough game to win, IMO.

Obviously, we have to shoot better from outside. That goes without saying. Eventhough I just did.

[heyman25]

Any news on Cam Reddish? Hope he is available. UVA will be a very difficult opponent for this learning team.

[Troublemaker]

True. Though basketball-wise, I find them boring to watch (a little less so this year) and their stubbornness to not change was a contributing factor in their loss to a 16 seed.

Is "stubbornness to not change" what we're calling losing their best and most important player DeAndre Hunter right before the tournament starts? Now, UVA perhaps should've won anyway, but Hunter is the footnote that people always forget to mention.

All I know is I would be catatonic if this Tre Jones injury had happened on the eve of the tournament.


UVa is playing VTech. They are not athletic but love the three and can shoot them from deep. Duke is not good at defending that shot. Will be an interesting test.


We’ve been very unlucky with opponents shooting the 3-ball. It seems they are shooting lights out against us. Anyone can get lucky, but our opponents really seem to hit high percentages against us. I don’t think our defense is bad in all cases either. I don’t know what the answer is.

That's your recency bias speaking. Opponents only shoot 29.8% on threes against Duke, good for 27th in the country. And we're also 57th in the country at limiting 3-pt attempts.


While it is nice that there are several days to prepare, it is really hard to not see this being a laugher. Zion is a tough matchup for anyone but he’ll be working much harder on offense than any game before. Cam, Jack, and AOC have to hit a season high of 3’s just to have a decent chance in this. Javin and Marques should focus solely on grabbing boards for kick outs or put backs. I think this game will be tougher on RJ than anyone. He’s not a great shooter and the hoos are really going to shut off the lane on him. I hope people don’t overreact if he has another poor outing. This is a terrible matchup for him and adding facilitating responsibilities makes this even tougher.

Defense - I have no idea what the answer is. I really don’t think it’s a zone but with the length of Cam, RJ, Jack, and Bolden maybe it’s worth a shot for a few possessions. At least in an effort to keep this one respectable.

With sports gambling so readily available these days, sounds like you should liquefy your assets and prepare to double up on Saturday.

I'm serious when I say this game is going to open pick'em or maybe Duke as a slight favorite. A great opportunity for you awaits!

[simplyluvin]

I rewatched the UMBC game, and the key to their win was they shot lights out from 3 (50%). That forced uva to guard more tightly on the perimeter, which opened lanes for UMBC to then dribble and penetrate, which they would often kick out from and hit more 3s. They also played loose since they new they were playing with house money.

It’s a tall order, but if Cam and RJ can hit some 3s off the dribble and we get some spot 3s from AOC and jack, that should open up space in the pack line for Zion to wreak havoc. And we have to play to have fun.

[dukelifer]

Is "stubbornness to not change" what we're calling losing their best and most important player DeAndre Hunter right before the tournament starts? Now, UVA perhaps should've won anyway, but Hunter is the footnote that people always forget to mention.

All I know is I would be catatonic if this Tre Jones injury had happened on the eve of the tournament.





That's your recency bias speaking. Opponents only shoot 29.8% on threes against Duke, good for 27th in the country. And we're also 57th in the country at limiting 3-pt attempts.



With sports gambling so readily available these days, sounds like you should liquefy your assets and prepare to double up on Saturday.

I'm serious when I say this game is going to open pick'em or maybe Duke as a slight favorite. A great opportunity for you awaits!

Maybe some bias - but the Zags torched Duke from deep at 52%- Auburn over 33%, and of course Cuse at 44% so Duke has handled some teams but others - particularly good teams- have hit some shots from deep. UVA is about the best team Duke will have faced all year and they shoot it well.

[UrinalCake]

Seriously :(

I'm still hot about that one. How in the heck did that go in? :(

IIRC they beat us a couple year ago in the Carrier Dome on a half court heave that banked in.

[sagegrouse]

While it is nice that there are several days to prepare, it is really hard to not see this being a laugher. Zion is a tough matchup for anyone but he’ll be working much harder on offense than any game before. Cam, Jack, and AOC have to hit a season high of 3’s just to have a decent chance in this. Javin and Marques should focus solely on grabbing boards for kick outs or put backs. I think this game will be tougher on RJ than anyone. He’s not a great shooter and the hoos are really going to shut off the lane on him. I hope people don’t overreact if he has another poor outing. This is a terrible matchup for him and adding facilitating responsibilities makes this even tougher.

Defense - I have no idea what the answer is. I really don’t think it’s a zone but with the length of Cam, RJ, Jack, and Bolden maybe it’s worth a shot for a few possessions. At least in an effort to keep this one respectable.

So, why do you call it a "laugher." Sounds like sob city, by your description.

Heck, it's college basketball. Syracuse lost its previous game at home by 14 points against Georgia Tech, one of the worst teams in the ACC The Orange made only 21 percent from three. Against Duke, Syracuse made 44 percent. I look forward to a great game from our team and a rousing defense of our national ranking.

[Troublemaker]

Maybe some bias - but the Zags torched Duke from deep at 52%- Auburn over 33%, and of course Cuse at 44% so Duke has handled some teams but others - particularly good teams- have hit some shots from deep.

Not really. If you're including kenpom #35 Syracuse as a "good team" (and you should), why not include Kentucky (#12), Indiana (#32), Texas Tech (#7), and Florida St (#25)? Let me guess -- they didn't shoot well against Duke, and you cherry-picked the good teams that did, including an iffy "Auburn over 33%". Basically the Zags and Cuse had hot shooting days against Duke, right? (And if so, you realize it's impossible to go through a season and have 0 teams shoot well against us, right?)

Incidentally, when your theory doesn't match the statistical evidence, why not just say, "I was wrong"? No one would think less of you. Sorry for picking on you, dukelifer. You're not the poster boy for an inability to say "I was wrong" or anything.

[Mak P]

It takes like a week and half to 2 weeks to recover fully from the flu. I'll be shocked Cam can contribute more than 8pts

[Troublemaker]

It takes like a week and half to 2 weeks to recover fully from the flu. I'll be shocked Cam can contribute more than 8pts

Technically, Cam was reported to have "flu-like symptoms".

Maybe this is a question for the MDs on here. It's very possible Cam has a cold, right?

[Mak P]

Technically, Cam was reported to have "flu-like symptoms".

Maybe this is a question for the MDs on here. It's very possible Cam has a cold, right?

I only hear athletes with this lol. After google I guess since I never got tested, I had "symptoms" as well. I've had those "symptoms" on 3 separate occasions throughout my life and can tell you if it kicked in on Monday night, it'll be a struggle Saturday. That's with constant medicine around the clock, but you have to be careful. Don't want to risk pneumonia

[uh_no]

I only hear athletes with this lol. After google I guess since I never got tested, I had "symptoms" as well. I've had those "symptoms" on 3 separate occasions throughout my life and can tell you if it kicked in on Monday night, it'll be a struggle Saturday. That's with constant medicine around the clock, but you have to be careful. Don't want to risk pneumonia

i've had flus last a couple day. I've had flus last a week. Might not even BE the flu...who knows.

I imaging these guys all get the flu shot and in general have a diet that promotes a healthy immune system (among other things). I just hope he can go so he gets a roar at cameron. Shame he didn't get it yesterday.

[dukelifer]

Not really. If you're including kenpom #35 Syracuse as a "good team" (and you should), why not include Kentucky (#12), Indiana (#32), Texas Tech (#7), and Florida St (#25)? Let me guess -- they didn't shoot well against Duke, and you cherry-picked the good teams that did, including an iffy "Auburn over 33%". Basically the Zags and Cuse had hot shooting days against Duke, right? (And if so, you realize it's impossible to go through a season and have 0 teams shoot well against us, right?)

Incidentally, when your theory doesn't match the statistical evidence, why not just say, "I was wrong"? No one would think less of you. Sorry for picking on you, dukelifer. You're not the poster boy for an inability to say "I was wrong" or anything.

I actually was surprised by the data and should have said that. That is bias for you. But then again I ( and maybe others) tend to look at the games in which Duke lost and ask what happened. Here we hope for a tiny sample size. So not quite cherry picking. So Duke lost 2 close games and in both the other team shot a very high percentage from 3. In some years/ Duke loses because guards penetrate and kill them with drives. Not this year. While you suspect that Duke will be favored/ we probably agree this is a tough game coming up. UVA can shoot the 3 very well. Duke will need to take that away to win.

[whereinthehellami]

If I was not a Duke fan, Tony Bennett’s UVA program would be my favorite in the ACC. Good students, great team work, great defense, unselfish play. Lots to admire here.

I agree on Tony Bennett, I have always been really impressed with him and how he runs his program. He handled the UMBC loss with dignity. Now the UVA students are another story, a story that involves a bunch of ascot wearing, self-righteous, Jeffersonian-column hugging blowhards.


True. Though basketball-wise, I find them boring to watch (a little less so this year) and their stubbornness to not change was a contributing factor in their loss to a 16 seed.

More firepower this year though. Duke has their work cut out.

I don't get this. Every offensive and defensive possession is valued and worked. I think it is beautiful to watch. I also enjoyed watching GT football, so maybe I enjoy watching different systems.


While it is nice that there are several days to prepare, it is really hard to not see this being a laugher. Zion is a tough matchup for anyone but he’ll be working much harder on offense than any game before. Cam, Jack, and AOC have to hit a season high of 3’s just to have a decent chance in this. Javin and Marques should focus solely on grabbing boards for kick outs or put backs. I think this game will be tougher on RJ than anyone. He’s not a great shooter and the hoos are really going to shut off the lane on him. I hope people don’t overreact if he has another poor outing. This is a terrible matchup for him and adding facilitating responsibilities makes this even tougher.

Defense - I have no idea what the answer is. I really don’t think it’s a zone but with the length of Cam, RJ, Jack, and Bolden maybe it’s worth a shot for a few possessions. At least in an effort to keep this one respectable.

I agree with this and think that Duke is reeling right now and UVA is cruising, laser focused. I think Duke will keep it close (a couple of possessions) until the end due to sheer grit.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I agree on Tony Bennett, I have always been really impressed with him and how he runs his program. He handled the UMBC loss with dignity. Now the UVA students are another story, a story that involves a bunch of ascot wearing, self-righteous, Jeffersonian-column hugging blowhards.



I don't get this. Every offensive and defensive possession is valued and worked. I think it is beautiful to watch. I also enjoyed watching GT football, so maybe I enjoy watching different systems.

Yup. I love the tension of a 6-3 football game. But we are definitely in the minority.

[CDu]

Not really. If you're including kenpom #35 Syracuse as a "good team" (and you should), why not include Kentucky (#12), Indiana (#32), Texas Tech (#7), and Florida St (#25)? Let me guess -- they didn't shoot well against Duke, and you cherry-picked the good teams that did, including an iffy "Auburn over 33%". Basically the Zags and Cuse had hot shooting days against Duke, right? (And if so, you realize it's impossible to go through a season and have 0 teams shoot well against us, right?)

Incidentally, when your theory doesn't match the statistical evidence, why not just say, "I was wrong"? No one would think less of you. Sorry for picking on you, dukelifer. You're not the poster boy for an inability to say "I was wrong" or anything.

To be fair, Texas Tech is pretty bad offensively - worse than any of the other teams on the list including Syracuse. Yes, the comment was “good teams.” But when talking about offense, I think the logical understanding is “good offensive teams.” Indiana, FSU, and Kentucky are also worse offensively than Auburn. That said, all of those teams except Texas Tech are better (most comfortably so) than Syracuse. Though FSU and UK are good offenses, not good shooting teams.

[DarkstarWahoo]

I swear this is not me sandbagging, but I will admit I'm generally Eeyore when it comes to UVA sports. I still think Duke wins this one. It's at Cameron, and for most of the game - if not all, depending on how hard K wants to push Zion and Barrett and how Reddish plays - the two best players on the floor will be wearing Duke uniforms. Jones is a big, important piece, and it definitely helps UVA if he's out, but this all seems like a Duke win to me.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree on Tony Bennett, I have always been really impressed with him and how he runs his program. He handled the UMBC loss with dignity. Now the UVA students are another story, a story that involves a bunch of ascot wearing, self-righteous, Jeffersonian-column hugging blowhards.

We seem to rip on alums from other schools (mostly Southern) a ton: UVa, UNC, etc. Do we look at the Duke alums and say, "down-to-earth, unselfish, generous, thoughtful alums who support their teams with pride and respect the opposition"? Cus I'll tell ya, I've been to a crap load of Duke games away from Cameron and don't see a difference between our fans and the opposing fans in terms of attitude/composure. At Cameron, I believe it's different. I suspect that's because a massive percentage of the fans are Iron Dukies.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Now two mornings removed from Monday night, and I am feeling better and better. Duke had a rough weekend, missing Zion - our highest rated defender, by the way - for the second half against Florida State, and both Cam and Tre for essentially the entire game against Syracuse. So it is no wonder that two of Duke's worst defensive performances to date came in the span of 3 days. The team gave up 107.9 points per 100 possessions (PPP) to FSU and then 104.5 to Syracuse. Outside of the Gonzaga game (123.3), those were the worst two games all season. As Coach K said in his postgame presser, "sometimes, Life happens."

Heading into the Florida State game, Duke had reeled off a string of impressive defensive efforts, holding its previous 8 opponents to under 88.0 PPP. Duke was bad on the defensive glass against FSU and really bad defending the 3 (or, allowing some really bad shots to go in) against Syracuse. Coincidentally, Virginia Tech snapped an 8-game stretch of Virginia holding its opponents under 87 PPP. VA Tech had 105.4 PPP in that game and lost by 22 as UVA had an outrageous 144.7 on offense with an effective field goal percentage of 70.8.

Virginia has been essentially going hot and cold in its last 5 games with three games with a PPP above 128 in 3 games (Home vs. Marshall, @ Boston College, and home vs. VA Tech) sandwiched between a couple of so-so performances (102.9 vs. FSU and 103.5 vs. Clemson). It should not be surprising to note that Clemson and FSU are two of the better defenses that Virginia has seen this year. When they have faced above average defenses, Virginia has been average or worse. Their worst defensive performance to date was against Wisconsin, a top 15 adjusted defensive squad based on KenPom. In that game, UVA shot 4-17 from 3 and had 91.3 PPP for the game. While UVA has done a remarkable job this year, I don't see a team that is unbeatable.

They have very little rim protection. Diakite and Huff (who plays about 10 minutes) are the only two guys that are decent shot blockers. Hunter, Guy, Jerome, Salt, Clark, and Key hardly even try to alter shots at the rim. They have some incredible shooters on the team, but they also like to play two non-shooting bigs for long stretches of the game. Huff and Diakite can both shoot the ball, but combined have only attempted 17 threes on the season. Salt does not do much on offense outside of rebound and set screens. Diakite does much the same, although he will take a couple more shot attempts. So they are essentially beating opponents with 3 guards on offense. And, if Cam Reddish and the rest of the team (sans Tre Jones) is healthy, Duke certainly has the length to bother shots. So I fully expect a strong defensive effort from Duke in this game.

Now, can the team capitalize on offense? Zion has been on an absolute tear all year and especially in league play. If Barrett and/or Reddish can also score, we should be in business. And if O'Connell and White can knock down an open shot, we might be in very good shape. It won't be easy, but there is a legit path to victory here.

[Troublemaker]

I actually was surprised by the data and should have said that. That is bias for you. But then again I ( and maybe others) tend to look at the games in which Duke lost and ask what happened. Here we hope for a tiny sample size. So not quite cherry picking. So Duke lost 2 close games and in both the other team shot a very high percentage from 3. In some years/ Duke loses because guards penetrate and kill them with drives. Not this year. While you suspect that Duke will be favored/ we probably agree this is a tough game coming up. UVA can shoot the 3 very well. Duke will need to take that away to win.

When a top 3 team like Duke gets upset, it's going to often involve hot shooting by the opponent. And generally, for every basketball team (high school, college, pro, FIBA, etc), opponents will shoot better in losses than in wins. I just don't think you've found anything there.

And yes, I think UVA will be a tough game. I would have thought that even if Duke were completely healthy.


To be fair, Texas Tech is pretty bad offensively - worse than any of the other teams on the list including Syracuse. Yes, the comment was “good teams.” But when talking about offense, I think the logical understanding is “good offensive teams.” Indiana, FSU, and Kentucky are also worse offensively than Auburn. That said, all of those teams except Texas Tech are better (most comfortably so) than Syracuse. Though FSU and UK are good offenses, not good shooting teams.

Not really. Since he listed Syracuse, the context was clearly just "good teams." Help me out here. I'm failing to see what the point of your post is.

[wavedukefan70s]

After reading a article on the front page it reminded me of the brilliance possessed by coach K.
I have no idea what they will come up with .but I'm willing to wager it's going to be something golden.
I'm a believer. Virginia has no idea what to prepare for.this could be one of those games that you just go wow.we have a tonne of options .the only thing I know for sure is Bolden ,vrank and Robinson wont be playing point .I would think we can play over the top to bring the ball up.

[CDu]

Not really. Since he listed Syracuse, the context was clearly just "good teams." Help me out here. I'm failing to see what the point of your post is.

You've been awfully testy with folks lately, going out of your way to call people onto the carpet. I suggest taking a breather. That's my overarching point, I guess.

More to the point, "particularly good teams" is a pretty vague term. Didn't warrant the response in my opinion. Especially because the good teams you listed aren't teams that shoot well. No reason to be so combative over a largely throwaway comment.

[devildeac]

We seem to rip on alums from other schools (mostly Southern) a ton: UVa, UNC, etc. Do we look at the Duke alums and say, "down-to-earth, unselfish, generous, thoughtful alums who support their teams with pride and respect the opposition"? Cus I'll tell ya, I've been to a crap load of Duke games away from Cameron and don't see a difference between our fans and the opposing fans in terms of attitude/composure. At Cameron, I believe it's different. I suspect that's because a massive percentage of the fans are Iron Dukies.

Describes me perfectly, except, you omitted handsome.

:rolleyes::o

[flyingdutchdevil]

Describes me perfectly, except, you omitted handsome.

:rolleyes::o

I'm sorry, but "handsome" and "generous" are mutually exclusive.

[COYS]

Here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=484&v=ww3Pw5veAUU) is an interesting video from the Athletic that goes into detail about how Zone has made a comeback in the NBA this season and how NBA coaches have tweaked the 2-3 zone to be better against three point shots. Obviously, Duke will not have had time to develop complicated zone schemes, but it's still a cool video for basketball junkies and might provide some insight into what's going on in Cameron on Saturday if/when Duke deploys a zone. If the guys "get" the zone quickly, I could see it being effective, especially because I think the length and quickness of guys like Cam, RJ, and Zion will allow them to recover to three point shooters.

[devildeac]

I'm sorry, but "handsome" and "generous" are mutually exclusive.

OK, generous is far more accurate anyway.

:D

[flyingdutchdevil]

OK, generous is far more accurate anyway.

:D

And I am handsome.

However, we both like beer (or in your case, love beer). So I guess we can still hang out.

[dukelifer]

When a top 3 team like Duke gets upset, it's going to often involve hot shooting by the opponent. And generally, for every basketball team (high school, college, pro, FIBA, etc), opponents will shoot better in losses than in wins. I just don't think you've found anything there.

And yes, I think UVA will be a tough game. I would have thought that even if Duke were completely healthy.



Not really. Since he listed Syracuse, the context was clearly just "good teams." Help me out here. I'm failing to see what the point of your post is.

Well it is true that usually a team wins because they shoot well- it is not always from 3. When South Caroline scored 65 pts in the second half in 2017, they only shot 31.8% from 3 and 42.9% overall. Duke shot 37% from 3 in that loss. When St Johns beat Duke last year, both Duke and St Johns shot well from 3 (>45%) but St Johns was a tick below Duke at 46.2% overall- good but certainly not unconscious. Yesterday, UVA shot 58.5% overall and 54.2%. That is hot shooting and tough to overcome.

[Troublemaker]

You've been awfully testy with folks lately, going out of your way to call people onto the carpet. I suggest taking a breather. That's my overarching point, I guess.

More to the point, "particularly good teams" is a pretty vague term. Didn't warrant the response in my opinion. Especially because the good teams you listed aren't teams that shoot well. No reason to be so combative over a largely throwaway comment.

Disagree. I doubt dukelifer feels "called onto the carpet" or that I was "combative." I was downright polite at times, actually. My exchange with him is an important one. When someone has a theory -- "Duke is not good at defending threes" -- and then someone else points out data that say the opposite, I do really want the first person to not double down or triple down on the original bad theory. That right there will reduce friction on DBR more than anything else.

dukelifer and I have had similar exchanges a bunch of times. I call him the best reverse-jinxer on DBR, which I suppose you would label as "testy." But he gets it.

dukelifer's a big boy and can take care of himself. It's demeaning to him to believe -- not that you necessarily do -- dukelifer needs a hero to interject and protect him from big bad Troublemaker. You'll find that my posts continue to be a mixture of humor, excitement, and cold analysis of Duke basketball.

[Troublemaker]

Well it is true that usually a team wins because they shoot well- it is not always from 3. When South Caroline scored 65 pts in the second half in 2017, they only shot 31.8% from 3 and 42.9% overall. Duke shot 37% from 3 in that loss. When St Johns beat Duke last year, both Duke and St Johns shot well from 3 (>45%) but St Johns was a tick below Duke at 46.2% overall- good but certainly not unconscious. Yesterday, UVA shot 58.5% overall and 54.2%. That is hot shooting and tough to overcome.

Isn't it a positive sign when a team like Duke is so good that its only two losses were upsets that included extremely hot 3-pt shooting from the opponent? That's sort of what you aim for as a team, right?

And what you're aiming for -- and you're so good that I almost forgot -- is to talk up UVA's 3-pt shooting and Duke's inability to defend 3s so that you can jinx UVA into a bad shooting game on Saturday. I get it now. As always, you're the best reverse-jinxer in DBR history.

More importantly, have I made you cry yet?

[CDu]

Disagree. I doubt dukelifer feels "called onto the carpet" or that I was "combative." I was downright polite at times, actually. My exchange with him is an important one. When someone has a theory -- "Duke is not good at defending threes" -- and then someone else points out data that say the opposite, I do really want the first person to not double down or triple down on the original bad theory. That right there will reduce friction on DBR more than anything else.

dukelifer and I have had similar exchanges a bunch of times. I call him the best reverse-jinxer on DBR, which I suppose you would label as "testy." But he gets it.

dukelifer's a big boy and can take care of himself. It's demeaning to him to believe -- not that you necessarily do -- dukelifer needs a hero to interject and protect him from big bad Troublemaker. You'll find that my posts continue to be a mixture of humor, excitement, and cold analysis of Duke basketball.

This is the part that came off as testy to me:

"Incidentally, when your theory doesn't match the statistical evidence, why not just say, "I was wrong"? No one would think less of you. Sorry for picking on you, dukelifer. You're not the poster boy for an inability to say "I was wrong" or anything."

This on the heels of your spat yesterday(?) with FDD.

I don't believe that adding my thoughts on the matter is equivalent to suggesting that someone "needs a hero to interject and project him", since this after all a public forum and community discussion. So I'm not sure why you jump to that response. Again, this response and your response to my post ("I'm failing to see the point of your post here.") all seem to have a testy tone.

Your mileage may vary. Just saying what I'm seeing here in these posts the past few days.

[fuse]

Neither doom and gloom, or optimism here.
I’d be pleasantly surprised with a win of any kind the way UVa is playing.
A close (single digit) loss if Cam and Tre are out would be much better than the shellacking UVa just put on VT.

I think we can win, just predisposed based on what I understand the circumstances to be, expecting a loss.

Our KenPom stats to date for the season seem irrelevant to this game. It will be interesting to see if our tougher schedule bears fruit against UVa.

[Troublemaker]

This is the part that came off as testy to me:

"Incidentally, when your theory doesn't match the statistical evidence, why not just say, "I was wrong"? No one would think less of you. Sorry for picking on you, dukelifer. You're not the poster boy for an inability to say "I was wrong" or anything."

This on the heels of your spat yesterday(?) with FDD.

I don't believe that adding my thoughts on the matter is equivalent to suggesting that someone "needs a hero to interject and project him", since this after all a public forum and community discussion. So I'm not sure why you jump to that response. Again, this response and your response to my post ("I'm failing to see the point of your post here.") all seem to have a testy tone.

Your mileage may vary. Just saying what I'm seeing here in these posts the past few days.

Agree to disagree.

Your example of my supposed testiness includes a polite apology for using dukelifer as an example when he's hardly the poster boy for the thing I was critical of. I'm good with it.

You've had your say, and our mileage does vary. Agree to disagree. Thanks for the input.

[CDu]

Neither doom and gloom, or optimism here.
I’d be pleasantly surprised with a win of any kind the way UVa is playing.
A close (single digit) loss if Cam and Tre are out would be much better than the shellacking UVa just put on VT.

I think we can win, just predisposed based on what I understand the circumstances to be, expecting a loss.

Our KenPom stats to date for the season seem irrelevant to this game. It will be interesting to see if our tougher schedule bears fruit against UVa.

Yep, we certainly have the talent to beat anyone, even without Jones. But it will certainly be much harder to do so without Jones.

I do like that we have a few days to prepare. Hopefully Reddish will be healthy enough to play a key role. Without him, it gets REALLY tough.

It will almost certainly take a better shooting day from us to beat UVa. Fingers crossed for some good fortune on the health front and some good fortune on the shooting front.

[kAzE]

Yep, we certainly have the talent to beat anyone, even without Jones. But it will certainly be much harder to do so without Jones.

I do like that we have a few days to prepare. Hopefully Reddish will be healthy enough to play a key role. Without him, it gets REALLY tough.

It will almost certainly take a better shooting day from us to beat UVa. Fingers crossed for some good fortune on the health front and some good fortune on the shooting front.

We missed a ton of shots against Syracuse, but I wouldn't chalk it up to bad luck. I think it's a bunch of factors. Fatigue is the most obvious one. Jack White absolutely cannot play the way he usually does with such a substantial increase in minutes. He needs to learn how to pace himself, so that he's not so gassed at the end of the game that he has no legs to shoot a wide open corner jumper. If a single one those shots went in, we're 15-1 right now.

2nd, Cam will be back (hopefully). As the best shooter on the team (IMO), he obviously provides a big boost to our floor spacing.

Lastly, RJ hasn't been a good shooter off the dribble all year, so having Cam in the game as an extra ball handler will naturally allow RJ to spot up more.

Will any of it be enough to overcome UVa's defense? Maybe not, but there's no possible way we can be worse shooting the ball than the Syracuse game. That was a perfect storm scenario for them.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Agree to disagree.

Your example of my supposed testiness includes a polite apology for using dukelifer as an example when he's hardly the poster boy for the thing I was critical of. I'm good with it.

You've had your say, and our mileage does vary. Agree to disagree. Thanks for the input.

**TWEET**

Okay friends (and I mean that) time to take the exchange elsewhere. For the benefit of everyone else please.

[devildeac]

Question for rsvman:

If indeed reports of Cam's "quarantine" are indeed true, what sort of (reasonable) diagnoses in this situation would be present to justify such a measure? Someone/somewhere on this thread (or another) postulated he may have a "cold," which would, of course, be ludicrous for isolation measures. Are we talking/speculating influenza/rotovivus/rsv (:eek:) here? Inquiring minds and all that stuff...

Thanks!

[dukelifer]

Isn't it a positive sign when a team like Duke is so good that its only two losses were upsets that included extremely hot 3-pt shooting from the opponent? That's sort of what you aim for as a team, right?

And what you're aiming for -- and you're so good that I almost forgot -- is to talk up UVA's 3-pt shooting and Duke's inability to defend 3s so that you can jinx UVA into a bad shooting game on Saturday. I get it now. As always, you're the best reverse-jinxer in DBR history.

More importantly, have I made you cry yet?

I have enough mental callouses from watching Duke basketball for over 40 years to be reduced to tears from a post ;) I of course plan to use every reverse jinx I can to get Duke to win. To be viewed as the best at that- well that is high praise.

[MrPoon]

So glad this came is after a full week of practices and at home.
K does have a history of tweaking and has some spectacular examples of success. I’m sure over the years some didn’t work but my memory only holds on to the good ones.

How many threes do you think Jack has taken over the last few days on his own. Poor guy.

This team is loaded with ball handlers and that will help once they know the game plan. UVa’s tempo will hold the score down and force Duke to play half court offense where, even with Tre, Duke wasn’t great. However, there is no way UVa shoots as well as SY did on simply bad shots. Cam being back will help the rotation, the minutes played, D etc. Even if he is back on limited minutes but I fully expect him all the way. Duke has to rebound well, especially on the offensive glass to make up for UVas offensive efficiency. Duke will also need to balance the threes vs twos. The SY zone tricks you into thinking that’s an easier shot, Virginia is less likly to push that button but that temptation has been a weakness all year. (I think someone in an earlier thread said this team was on pace for more threes per game than JJs teams, doesn’t seem like a winning strategy).

For me, this game will be decided by Duke’s D and RJ’s hatred of losing. Something about that kid can’t be measure but is great.

I’ll be really interested in the officials on this one. Duke’s depth can’t have a quick whistle but at the same time UVa plays a subtle phisicality that should garner more calls than it actually does. So a fine line. Hope K can help there....

[Kedsy]

UVa’s tempo will hold the score down and force Duke to play half court offense where, even with Tre, Duke wasn’t great.

I mentioned this in the pre-game Syracuse thread, but Duke has sped up every single team we've faced. Generally by a lot. I don't know how much of that can be attributed to Tre (who often leads the break and causes a whole lot of our opponents' live-ball turnovers), but even without him for 40 minutes against Syracuse, we took a very slow-tempo team and played a very fast-tempo game.

So I'm not convinced that UVa will rule the tempo battle, but with so many unknowns I guess we'll have to wait and see.



Opponent Opp adj pace Poss Diff Margin
Virginia 60.9 ??? ??? ??
EMU 63.8 72.5 8.7 38
Syracuse 67.4 80.8* 13.7 -4
SD State 67.4 72.5 5.1 26
Hartford 67.6 72.7 5.1 30
Tex Tech 68.0 81.5 13.5 11
Clemson 68.2 77.3 9.1 19
Princeton 68.2 74.9 6.7 51
UK 68.7 82.4 13.7 34
Indiana 68.8 78.8 10.0 21
WF 69.3 74.5 5.2 22
Auburn 69.6 70.7 1.1 6
Stetson 69.9 81.9 12.0 64
FSU 70.9 72.3 1.4 2
Yale 72.0 83.0 11.0 33
Gonzaga 72.0 72.2 0.2 -2
Army 72.4 78.3 5.9 22


* - actually 90.9 possessions including OT, which translates to 80.8 per 40.

Note that all the "opponent adjusted pace" numbers above include a fast-paced game against Duke (except UVa's number, of course).

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Put me in the camp of "Duke isn't doomed without Tre." While he is the most important cog on the roster, there is a TON of talent still sitting on the bench. I like our chances with our players and K.

Also, for the first time all season, the pressure will be off for them. UVA will be expected to win (if not in Vegas, but most folks) and our fellas will be expected to show up. I am excited to see what we can pull together and would not be surprised to get a big win.

Of course, I would be overjoyed to see Jones in the line up too...

[NSDukeFan]

So glad this came is after a full week of practices and at home.
K does have a history of tweaking and has some spectacular examples of success. I’m sure over the years some didn’t work but my memory only holds on to the good ones.

How many threes do you think Jack has taken over the last few days on his own. Poor guy.

This team is loaded with ball handlers and that will help once they know the game plan. UVa’s tempo will hold the score down and force Duke to play half court offense where, even with Tre, Duke wasn’t great. However, there is no way UVa shoots as well as SY did on simply bad shots. Cam being back will help the rotation, the minutes played, D etc. Even if he is back on limited minutes but I fully expect him all the way. Duke has to rebound well, especially on the offensive glass to make up for UVas offensive efficiency. Duke will also need to balance the threes vs twos. The SY zone tricks you into thinking that’s an easier shot, Virginia is less likly to push that button but that temptation has been a weakness all year. (I think someone in an earlier thread said this team was on pace for more threes per game than JJs teams, doesn’t seem like a winning strategy).

For me, this game will be decided by Duke’s D and RJ’s hatred of losing. Something about that kid can’t be measure but is great.

I’ll be really interested in the officials on this one. Duke’s depth can’t have a quick whistle but at the same time UVa plays a subtle phisicality that should garner more calls than it actually does. So a fine line. Hope K can help there...

When I saw some of the doom and gloom posts after the Syracuse game about how Duke would lose to Virginia, I tried to picture R.J. agreeing with that. I couldn’t picture it. Virginia is a very good team and has an excellent chance to win on Saturday, but I am pretty sure R.J. and Zion are not expecting that and are expecting to beat them.

[thedukelamere]

When I saw some of the doom and gloom posts after the Syracuse game about how Duke would lose to Virginia, I tried to picture R.J. agreeing with that. I couldn’t picture it. Virginia is a very good team and has an excellent chance to win on Saturday, but I am pretty sure R.J. and Zion are not expecting that and are expecting to beat them.

Can't find the video to link it, but to quote the great Quinn Cook... "Duke is never the underdog!!"

[Matches]

Put me in the camp of "Duke isn't doomed without Tre." While he is the most important cog on the roster, there is a TON of talent still sitting on the bench. I like our chances with our players and K.



Initially I felt we had little chance of winning without Tre, but with the benefit of a little perspective I'm coming around to your way of thinking here. We've got probably the top 2, and 3 of the top 10, picks in next year's draft, 4 skilled supporting cast members, and the GOAT coach. UVa is very good and, given how they've been playing, deserves to be favored, but we're not exactly the Sisters of the Wretched & Despondent or anything.

Duke absolutely can win this game.

[Troublemaker]

Put me in the camp of "Duke isn't doomed without Tre." While he is the most important cog on the roster, there is a TON of talent still sitting on the bench. I like our chances with our players and K.

Also, for the first time all season, the pressure will be off for them. UVA will be expected to win (if not in Vegas, but most folks) and our fellas will be expected to show up. I am excited to see what we can pull together and would not be surprised to get a big win.

Of course, I would be overjoyed to see Jones in the line up too...

Cameron's going to be rocking. GameDay. Getting excited already.


I have enough mental callouses from watching Duke basketball for over 40 years to be reduced to tears from a post ;) I of course plan to use every reverse jinx I can to get Duke to win. To be viewed as the best at that- well that is high praise.

Thanks for being the good sport that I knew you were, dukelifer. Someone was seeking to be the wind beneath your wings, but he didn't realize that you had already shorn your feathers into a boiling pot alongside blood of a lamb, root of hemlock, goat's bile, and two snips of Tony Bennett's hair.


guessing UVA will be favored by about 4, hard to believe. I think UVA is about 12 points better right now unless some news comes out about our health.

Meant to post this earlier, but your point spread math is wrong. Homecourt advantage is generally considered to be about 4 points*, so if UVA is 12 points better than Duke, they should be around 8-pt favorites. Of course, like I said, I don't expect them to be anywhere near that big a favorite whether we're talking 8 or 4.

* That's on the high end. For example, KenPom estimates Cameron to be worth about 3.5 points. For kenpom subscribers, the full homecourt advantage rankings are here: https://kenpom.com/hca.php

[gam7]

Tre's injury and Cam's illness couldn't have come at a worse time. With those two out, Jack White was moved(at game time) into the starting rotation. I don't know if that had anything to do with his horrible shooting night but tired legs at the end of the game probably did. Tre's injury took away our best defender and best distributor for our wings. Coach K will have several days to get the guys up to speed and Alex and Jack will know their roles come game time. We do have the best coach in college basketball on our side. Not that he doesn't make mistakes, but his positives are far more than his negatives. GoDuke!

Not sure it's been mentioned in this thread, but we do have SOME idea of what Coach K might have in mind without Tre and Cam because we played without both of them on the Canada trip. I did not watch those games, so can't tell you what exactly that is, but it might provide some insight...

[Wahoo2000]

Still reeling (in a good way) from the demolition of VT I witnessed yesterday. That first half looked like an exhibition/globetrotters game. If we (UVA) shoot even CLOSE to that well vs any opponent, I think we win going away.

One thing I've seen on this thread from Duke posters that I'll offer a differing opinion on:
- UVA likes to play 2 bigs together that aren't that much of a threat offensively. We've actually been more flexible and variable in our lineups this year than any other I can remember under Bennett. There have been MANY instances where we run Key and Hunter on the inside with Guy, Jerome, and Clark on the perimeter. That'd go 5'8, 6'2, 6'5, 6'8, 6'8
Conversely, we've also had times with Salt and Diakite up front with Key, Hunter, and Jerome on the outside - that's 6'10, 6'9, 6'8, 6'8, 6'5.
Despite the size Duke will roll out on Saturday, I don't think we'll see a ton of that "big" lineup as Guy at 6'2 will likely play 35ish min in a tight game. Honestly, a lot of it will come down to Bennett matching what K does with his lineup. Bennett tends to be a little more reactionary with his substitutions rather than forcing/dictating lineups. I'd expect Guy/Jerome/Hunter/Key to all be extremely significant contributors (minutes-wise) on Sat. Then it comes down to how much Bolden plays in regards to Salt's minutes. Those two I'm guessing will match time on the court relatively closely (Though Salt could probably defend Delaurier, we'd probably prefer Hunter or Key, or maybe Diakite, who are all a good bit quicker laterally and also quicker rotators/helpers). I'm not seeing Clark getting a TON of minutes in this one. Honestly, if Goldwire or O'Connell aren't in, I just don't know who he guards. I suppose they could try him on Reddish, since he really gets RIGHT up into the offensive player's chest (making it tougher than you'd think to get a clean shot off despite a literal FOOT height advantage). Still, I doubt it.

I think this game comes down to:
1) Does UVA's execution on D win out over Duke's ability to make tough shots? I honestly doubt that UVa will allow much in transition - we don't turn it over, and we've been very good at getting back. I think without Jones, Duke will struggle to create a significant volume of "high-quality" shots. The difference is that Duke's more talented players may be able to convert a very good percentage of "tough looks" into enough baskets to win.
2) What will Duke do defensively? This is a total mystery to me. They haven't played much zone (that I've seen), but without Jones spearheading things with tremendous ball-pressure, I don't think the man defense is quite the same. With the length and athleticism they can throw out though, I'm sure K will give it a run. I just think he's likely to have a backup plan - even if Duke isn't defending poorly, we could get hot, and in that case, it's nice to have another look to throw at us. IF K can install a zone focused on taking away the 3 ball, that also forces Hunter or Jerome to catch in the FT area and manufacture plays by making tough 2s, that's a great second option. I still like the playmaking ability and decision making of those 2 in that spot, but not as much as I like them or Guy getting free off of pin-downs and flare screens for good looks at 3.

Obviously losing Jones is a blow (I'm assuming he'll be out, but haven't seen that EXPRESSLY stated anywhere), but you do gain a certain element of surprise as well. How does Bennett gameplan for a team that you have almost no film on (since I think Jones was on the court for 35ish mpg), especially when there are likely to be MAJOR tweaks on both ends to accommodate for the loss of the primary playmaker on O and defensive leader? Just so many unknowns that he probably just has to have us "do what we do" and make adjustments on the fly as he sees/understands what Duke is trying to do.

Things that will NOT surprise me Saturday:
-A win by either squad
-Foul trouble for UVA bigs trying to help on drives by Barrett or Zion
-EITHER team getting a big lead early, but the other battling back to make it a close contest
-Shockingly few O boards for Duke
-Shockingly few FTs for UVA (not saying screwed by refs, saying we'll shoot a ton of jumpers)
-If both Jacks (Salt/White) don't have at least one tie-up for a jump ball. Likely on the floor. (GLUE GUYS!)

Things that WILL surprise me Saturday:
-A blowout for either side, excepting historically bad jumpshooting for either team
-If more than 1 Duke player has foul trouble
-If more than 1 UVA player fouls out
-If UVA's 7th and 8th men (Clark and Huff) combine for more than 20 min
-If ANY of Zion/Barrett/Reddish/Guy/Jerome/Hunter (excepting foul trouble) play less than 33ish min.
-If Jack White DOESN'T rebound with a decent/good shooting performance.
-If Duke plays no zone at all

Anyway - looking forward to this one. Hope it's a great game, and NO (further) injuries for either side.

[Kedsy]

Not sure it's been mentioned in this thread, but we do have SOME idea of what Coach K might have in mind without Tre and Cam because we played without both of them on the Canada trip. I did not watch those games, so can't tell you what exactly that is, but it might provide some insight...

My recollection is the strategy appeared to be let RJ and Zion go one-on-one a lot (and everyone shoot a lot of threes but not make that many -- though the 31.7% we shot there was basically the same as the 31.8% we've shot from three so far this season), and have the team play mediocre defense against overmatched opponents. At this point I expect both the strategy and the execution to be a lot better.

It's also worth noting that we played without Alex on that trip as well (at least after the first few minutes of the first game when his face got broken). But we did have Joey Baker, who was our best three-point shooter (45.5%) on the trip.

[BeachBlueDevil]

I could side quite a bit here. About how good UVA is, how Bennett is a great coach or pontificate what adjustments K might make, how RJ might run the point, or many other takes.

But before the Syracuse game I predicted Duke would win by 15... We all know the outcome. So I'm going to predict UVA by 10pts (reverse psychology here ;) ).

[Billy Dat]

I just saw a social media-posted photo of Cam at today's practice, so that's good news.

[Phoenix22]

I am so very excited to be returning to campus and Cameron for the first time in 17 years and bringing my father, a huge college bball fan, for the first time ever! Pretty bummed about Tre, but it is more important that he get healthy than he play. We can win without/for him. Cameron better be rocking! We will.

Trinity '01

[uh_no]

I just saw a social media-posted photo of Cam at today's practice, so that's good news.

uh-oh....someone gonna be in trouble for that leak!

[DaleDuke7]

‪Call me crazy, but I think Goldwire should start. He’s a pretty good on ball defender. This team has said time and time again that our driving force is our defense. I think he’s the best option for ball pressure from that guard position and also from a ball handling perspective. Sure, it will definitely be a drop off from Tre, but it will allow guys like RJ, Zion, and Cam (who most think will fill Tre’s role) to remain in their current roles for the most part. Instead of three people having a major adjustment, it would be only one major adjustment and a few minor ones. Sure, our offensive and defensive efficiency will both drop, but considering how high they were with Tre, I think we should be able to pull out a pretty good record until Tre is back.‬

‪Not saying that the other options wouldn’t or can’t work, just stating what I think would work best with this group.‬

‪Admittedly, I haven’t looked at any advanced stats for Goldwire, so feel free to rip me a new one.‬

[cato]

uh-oh...someone gonna be in trouble for that leak!

Like the leak of Amile dressed for practice during the year that he never returned?

[Troublemaker]

‪Call me crazy, but I think Goldwire should start. He’s a pretty good on ball defender. This team has said time and time again that our driving force is our defense. I think he’s the best option for ball pressure from that guard position and also from a ball handling perspective. Sure, it will definitely be a drop off from Tre, but it will allow guys like RJ, Zion, and Cam (who most think will fill Tre’s role) to remain in their current roles for the most part. Instead of three people having a major adjustment, it would be only one major adjustment and a few minor ones. Sure, our offensive and defensive efficiency will both drop, but considering how high they were with Tre, I think we should be able to pull out a pretty good record until Tre is back.‬

‪Not saying that the other options wouldn’t or can’t work, just stating what I think would work best with this group.‬

‪Admittedly, I haven’t looked at any advanced stats for Goldwire, so feel free to rip me a new one.‬

Against other teams, I don't hate it. But since it's UVA, we're going to need to make some shots. I'm a fan of JGold but his defense, while good, is probably enough of a downgrade from Tre's that we have no hope of out-defending UVA on the way to victory, and he would seem to almost be a liability on offense without the ability to shoot or create. Jack will start (and hopefully make shots).

[Troublemaker]

I just saw a social media-posted photo of Cam at today's practice, so that's good news.

Here's the link from a Chronicle writer:

Mitchell Gladstone‏ @mpgladstone13 (https://twitter.com/mpgladstone13) 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/mpgladstone13/status/1085650276034334724)
No video evidence, but @DukeMBB (https://twitter.com/DukeMBB) just posted this photo from today’s practice and you can see the back of Cam Reddish and his No. 2 jersey in white. If I had to guess, he’ll be good to go Saturday for #Duke (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Duke?src=hash) vs. #Virginia (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Virginia?src=hash).


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxEBKsTU0AEHwqF.jpg

[Troublemaker]

Assuming the Chronicle writer is correct about (a) that being from today's practice, and (b) that being Cam in the photo, we can at least rule out that his illness is bad enough to warrant quarantine.

Honestly, the whole thing feels iffy/sketchy, though. Not raising expectations yet.

[richardjackson199]

If we need to make shots, I wonder if there is any consideration of bringing Joey Baker in?

If Tre can't go for a while AND if Reddish is still sick and can't play, it might not be a bad idea. I don't know where his defense, etc. is but he can make shots. This team can win it all. If we can find a way to beat UVA our #1 seed dreams are very healthy, especially if Tre can come back sooner. I'd get Joey Baker in there if he can help this team win it all even if it means not having him 5 years from now or whatever. For all we know he might be in the NBA by then anyway. I see him in warm-ups. Joey can shoot!

Just a thought. K knows Joey is available, K knows if it's a bad idea or not, and he'll make the right decision. But after seeing our guys just run out of gas against Syracuse and fail to make so many shots, I have to wonder.

[TruBlu]

Stunt double.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

‪Call me crazy, but I think Goldwire should start. He’s a pretty good on ball defender. This team has said time and time again that our driving force is our defense. I think he’s the best option for ball pressure from that guard position and also from a ball handling perspective. Sure, it will definitely be a drop off from Tre, but it will allow guys like RJ, Zion, and Cam (who most think will fill Tre’s role) to remain in their current roles for the most part. Instead of three people having a major adjustment, it would be only one major adjustment and a few minor ones. Sure, our offensive and defensive efficiency will both drop, but considering how high they were with Tre, I think we should be able to pull out a pretty good record until Tre is back.‬

‪Not saying that the other options wouldn’t or can’t work, just stating what I think would work best with this group.‬

‪Admittedly, I haven’t looked at any advanced stats for Goldwire, so feel free to rip me a new one.‬

I will not rip you a new one...and frankly your position was well thought out. That said, I disagree. I think the team dies on offense when he's there, and his defense is just okay, not dynamic.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Question for rsvman:

If indeed reports of Cam's "quarantine" are indeed true, what sort of (reasonable) diagnoses in this situation would be present to justify such a measure? Someone/somewhere on this thread (or another) postulated he may have a "cold," which would, of course, be ludicrous for isolation measures. Are we talking/speculating influenza/rotovivus/rsv (:eek:) here? Inquiring minds and all that stuff...

Thanks!

K had said he had "flu like symptoms" - which to me means not the official influenza of the year....just the flu like symptoms. Full blown influenza and he's not playing Saturday. Flu symptoms? I think he'll play for sure....and has apparently been seen at practice via social media posts.

[-jk]

K had said he had "flu like symptoms" - which to me means not the official influenza of the year...just the flu like symptoms. Full blown influenza and he's not playing Saturday. Flu symptoms? I think he'll play for sure...and has apparently been seen at practice via social media posts.

"Flu like symptoms"? Perhaps a stomach/GI bug?

-jk

[uh_no]

K had said he had "flu like symptoms" - which to me means not the official influenza of the year...just the flu like symptoms. Full blown influenza and he's not playing Saturday. Flu symptoms? I think he'll play for sure...and has apparently been seen at practice via social media posts.

Depends on circumstance. I've had flus take 2-3 days, and flus take 2-3 weeks, though in the latter case, I had developed mild pneumonia which prolonged the whole thing. Given 5 full days of rest, I imagine in most cases, he'd be on the up and up by saturday. I think even an 80% cam is an asset....since 80% ought to be enough to keep up with the UVA molasseses.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Depends on circumstance. I've had flus take 2-3 days, and flus take 2-3 weeks, though in the latter case, I had developed mild pneumonia which prolonged the whole thing. Given 5 full days of rest, I imagine in most cases, he'd be on the up and up by saturday. I think even an 80% cam is an asset...since 80% ought to be enough to keep up with the UVA molasseses.

If you had "flu" for 2-3 days, then I'm not thinking that was the official "influenza" of the season. I've had that only one time in my life, and I was a stud in great shape, and wanted to die. That's totally different than the other 100 times I've had "flu like" crud of one form or another.

[pfrduke]

So I'm not convinced that UVa will rule the tempo battle, but with so many unknowns I guess we'll have to wait and see.

We haven't had a ton of luck speeding them up in the UVA-is-really-good recent past. Since 2014, our games against Virginia have been 61 (W), 61 (L), 59 (W), 59 (W), 58 (W), 65 (L).

65 is a little speedy vis-a-vis UVA, but everything else has been right at Virginia's speed.

[uh_no]

If you had "flu" for 2-3 days, then I'm not thinking that was the official "influenza" of the season. I've had that only one time in my life, and I was a stud in great shape, and wanted to die. That's totally different than the other 100 times I've had "flu like" crud of one form or another.

shrug. i left school with a fever/vomiting on a friday and no appetite until sunday night, by monday morning the temp came down, and by monday afternoon I felt fine. Not every strain of influenza is the same, and not everyone reacts the same to a given strain of influenza.

[Neals384]

Jack White absolutely cannot play the way he usually does with such a substantial increase in minutes. He needs to learn how to pace himself, so that he's not so gassed at the end of the game that he has no legs to shoot a wide open corner jumper.

Not gonna happen. Captain Jack plays all out, all the time.


I’ll be really interested in the officials on this one. Duke’s depth can’t have a quick whistle but at the same time UVa plays a subtle phisicality that should garner more calls than it actually does. So a fine line. Hope K can help there...

seems to me TV Teddy will be there. How could he resist this matchup?


Things that WILL surprise me Saturday:

-If Duke plays no zone at all

Anyway - looking forward to this one. Hope it's a great game, and NO (further) injuries for either side.

Prepare to be surprised. And thanks for the "no injuries" wishes. Same from me to UVA.


‪Call me crazy, but I think Goldwire should start. ‬

OK, you're crazy. I like Goldwire very much; he is a capable backup to fill in for spot minutes. That's all, at least this year.


I will not rip you a new one...and frankly your position was well thought out. That said, I disagree. I think the team dies on offense when he's there, and his defense is just okay, not dynamic.

Pretty much sums up Goldie's game.

[UrinalCake]

I don’t think starting Goldwire allows the other players to “remain in their current roles.” That would require that Goldwire is just as good as Tre at creating and getting the ball to them in good positions and in transition. And he just can’t do that. Instead, even with Goldwire on the court we’ll be relying on RJ, Cam and Zion to initiate the offense. Defensively he would have to apply the same kind of ball pressure in order to allow the wings to continue disrupting the passing lanes. He’s better at that, but not enough to offset his ineffectiveness on offense imo.

I do think he’ll play some, but we’ll start Jack or Alex. As for Baker, I don’t see what he brings over Jack or Alex. And we’re not going to play all three. Maybe if Cam was out then we could consider it, but I suspect we’d instead turn to Robinson who’s been fine in his limited role of shooting wide open threes. Baker hasn’t played a minute of college ball, no disrespect but I doubt he’d provide much against the country’s best defense.

[Saratoga2]

Tre is a wonderful defender, but even with him I doubt we would force UVA into a lot of turnovers. I don't expect we would have gotten the opportunity for a lot of points in transition. Maybe we get to see a full strength matchup later in the season to see what might have been.

We do have length and agility and should be able to contend against Viringia's 3 point shots. We also have 2 bigs who can protect the rim although Javin needs to play better and for more minutes than he has in the last two games. AOC is long and quick but Jack is probably smarter on defense. A combination of them is a pretty good answer on defense. Don't see Jordan helping much.

Our offensive prowess lies primarily with Zion who may be able to operate inside against the pack line. Hard for RJ to both bring the ball up and get inside to score efficiently, especially against the pack line. RJ just hasn't shown an efficient 3 point shot to date. Who knows, maybe he gets hot? Cam conceivably could get hot from outside and hit a good percentage of 3's. AOC also could but he seems too slow in getting his shot off and will probably have a defender getting to him before he can. Maybe coach K can figure a way to get him more open. Bolden may also be able to score a few buckets inside. He needs to go up immediately when he gets the ball and if fouled he can hit his foul shot pretty well for a big man.

Be nice to see us value the ball and find a way to score 80 while making it hard for UVA to score. Stay tuned.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

shrug. i left school with a fever/vomiting on a friday and no appetite until sunday night, by monday morning the temp came down, and by monday afternoon I felt fine. Not every strain of influenza is the same, and not everyone reacts the same to a given strain of influenza.

Google flu bug versus influenza.

[uh_no]

Google flu bug versus influenza.


Symptoms usually appear from one to four days after exposure to the virus, and they last five to seven days. For people who've had a flu shot, the symptoms may last a shorter amount of time, or be less severe.

I would be shocked if the guys on the team don't get a flu shot.

[rocketeli]

Who else thinks Syracuse will now lose to Pitt, and probably shoot 15% from 3 while doing it?

[richardjackson199]

Who else thinks Syracuse will now lose to Pitt, and probably shoot 15% from 3 while doing it?

Not sure, but I hope Syracuse loses every game remaining on their schedule. I'm bitter like that after how that game went down.

[left_hook_lacey]

Give Zion the keys!!

[proelitedota]

Wasn't RJ Barrett the PG for the Canadian team? Maybe he can repeat that performance and beat America again! O Canada!

Protégera nos foyers et nos droits.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

who else thinks syracuse will now lose to pitt, and probably shoot 15% from 3 while doing it?

memememememe

[TJ99]

Per Steve Wiseman on twitter :

Cam Reddish returned to practice for Duke today and is expected to play vs. Virginia on Saturday night. Reddish missed Monday's game with Syracuse due to flu-like symptoms

[MrPoon]

Per Steve Wiseman on twitter :

Cam Reddish returned to practice for Duke today and is expected to play vs. Virginia on Saturday night. Reddish missed Monday's game with Syracuse due to flu-like symptoms

Did K just get three full days of practice with his team to prepare and know what his roster will be?!
Sorry Tony... enjoy your stay. There can only be one GOAT.

[CDu]

shrug. i left school with a fever/vomiting on a friday and no appetite until sunday night, by monday morning the temp came down, and by monday afternoon I felt fine. Not every strain of influenza is the same, and not everyone reacts the same to a given strain of influenza.

Vomiting isn’t really a symptom of influenza. You most likely had a GI big and not influenza.

As for Reddish, I am hoping that “flu-like symptoms” means what it typically does when folks say that - a GI big.

[MarkD83]

Did K just get three full days of practice with his team to prepare and know what his roster will be?!
Sorry Tony... enjoy your stay. There can only be one GOAT.

So I read this in one of the articles on the 1st page of DBR but it does help me out of the injury duldrums.....what will be fun to see is how Coach K adjusts his line-up without Tre. He is a great x's and o's coach but we and the rest of world often think coach K is great because of the talent he has. A game against a top-ranked team when your team is a man down is exactly the type of game that has made Coach K the GOAT. I was dreading the game on Saturday but am now waiting to see the adjustments and remembering there are 3 NBA caliber players on the team all of whom can handle the ball.

[Devilwin]

Tre will be back in two weeks I think, and we will beat UVA without him. Just play smart guys...

[flyingdutchdevil]

Tre will be back in two weeks I think, and we will beat UVA without him. Just play smart guys...

not sure what their GPA is, but they’ll be at Duke for only a year. Not sure how smart they actually are.

[duke2x]

I just have a feeling we trade road wins with UVA (and Syracuse) this year. UVA is probably playing their best all year right now and probably won't be in February and March. (Sorry, but it's a multi-year trend.) Duke has some obvious questions with the indefinite injury. While I think we are hoping that Coach K reinvents the team and wins out like 2001, I'm not raising expectations. TO margin was UVA +10 in a 2-point loss. Tre Jones probably equals that out, but I'm not sure his replacement will.

I also can't remember off the top of my head when we upset someone in Cameron even when you consider that we don't have that opportunity often. I can remember some big road upsets from 2012-present pretty easily.

I can see either team getting up by double digits. Duke could pull a UNC 2001 to start the game, but UVA will adjust. We were down 10+ late in the first half last year, which is more like a 20+ deficit with the style of play.

[uh_no]

not sure what their GPA is, but they’ll be at Duke for only a year. Not sure how smart they actually are.

The standard duke rate is 25 IQ points a year, so they'll get something out of it at least.

[NSDukeFan]

not sure what their GPA is, but they’ll be at Duke for only a year. Not sure how smart they actually are.

I’m pretty sure there are some very basketball smart guys on the team (even if the smartest isn’t playing).

[Kedsy]

We haven't had a ton of luck speeding them up in the UVA-is-really-good recent past. Since 2014, our games against Virginia have been 61 (W), 61 (L), 59 (W), 59 (W), 58 (W), 65 (L).

65 is a little speedy vis-a-vis UVA, but everything else has been right at Virginia's speed.

Since 2014, before this season, Duke has not been a fast team, as the table below shows.



Year DuPace DuPcRk VaPace Midpt Poss Diff
2014 64.6 179 59.5 62.1 61.4 1.9
2014(T) 64.6 179 59.5 62.1 63.1 3.6
2015 65.8 104 58.0 61.9 61.0 3
2016 67.7 194 61.7 64.7 59.4 -2.3
2017 68.3 175 59.2 63.8 57.7 -1.5
2018 69.7 93 59.4 64.6 67.8 8.4
2019 75.7 7 60.7 68.2 ?? ??

(note that the shot clock was lowered from 35 seconds to 30 seconds, starting with the 2015-16 season)


I guess one could argue that last season we played somewhat fast (at least fastest 100), but it's also true that last season we succeeded in speeding them up (playing a 68 possession game with a UVa team whose average adjusted pace was 59). This season, not only are we really fast, but we've sped up every single opponent we've played, most of them significantly (as the table in my previous post showed).

So I'm not saying we will speed them up, and I'll concede that doing so will be a lot harder without Tre than with him, but I am saying I think we can speed them up, and that winning the "tempo war" will be one of the factors in who wins the game.

[duketaylor]

"Cameron's going to be rocking. GameDay. Getting excited already.

Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
I have enough mental callouses from watching Duke basketball for over 40 years to be reduced to tears from a post I of course plan to use every reverse jinx I can to get Duke to win. To be viewed as the best at that- well that is high praise.
Thanks for being the good sport that I knew you were, dukelifer. Someone was seeking to be the wind beneath your wings, but he didn't realize that you had already shorn your feathers into a boiling pot alongside blood of a lamb, root of hemlock, goat's bile, and two snips of Tony Bennett's hair.

Quote Originally Posted by duketaylor View Post
guessing UVA will be favored by about 4, hard to believe. I think UVA is about 12 points better right now unless some news comes out about our health.
Meant to post this earlier, but your point spread math is wrong. Homecourt advantage is generally considered to be about 4 points*, so if UVA is 12 points better than Duke, they should be around 8-pt favorites. Of course, like I said, I don't expect them to be anywhere near that big a favorite whether we're talking 8 or 4.

Regarding what I posted: I'm guessing UVA to be favored by 4 by Vegas, meaning UVA is better by 8 or so. I think UVA's better by 12, so would be an 8 pt. favorite in CIS. That's assuming (yeah, I know...I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this...u..) Tre's out and Cam's in. So, I'm guessing a line versus what I think is the right line; 4 versus 8 with no Tre. That's factoring in CIS, with Cam and without Tre. If Cam's healthy, cough, cough, and Tre plays, somewhat healthy, cough, cough, I think it's a pick'em since I think UVA is better right now. If both teams were at full strength I think Duke would be favored by 5, 4 points for CIS plus 1. All of this is simply a guess from someone who has wagered on games for more than a few years and is speculation. I want both teams at full strength because that match-up is exciting and tough to predict. Yet, very fun for speculation (and betting).:eek:

But, I understand your post for the numbers I posted; I should've explained my thinking in more detail. Sorry for that.






















;

[Reilly]

2014: UVA 14th SRS ... 30 wins ... 16 ACC wins (ACCR; ACCT) ... Sweet 16 (Mich St)
2014: Duke 6th SRS ... 26 wins ... 13 ACC wins ... R64 (Mercer)

2015: UVA 6th ... 30 wins ... 16 ACC wins (ACCR) ... R32 (Mich State)
2015: Duke 2nd ... 35 wins ... 15 ACC wins ... National Champs (Wisconsin)

2016: UVA 5th ... 29 wins ... 13 ACC wins ... R8 (Syracuse)
2016: Duke 12th ... 25 wins ... 11 ACC wins ... R16 (Oregon)

2017: UVA 13th ... 23 wins ... 11 ACC wins ... R32 (Florida)
2017: Duke 9th ... 28 wins ... 11 ACC wins (ACCT) ... R32 (South Carolina)

2018: UVA 5th ... 31 wins ... 17 ACC wins (ACCR; ACCT) ... R64 (UMBC)
2018: Duke 2nd ... 29 wins ... 13 ACC wins ... R8 (Kansas)

Past 5 years: UVA 143 wins; Duke 143 wins ... UVA 73 ACC reg seas wins; Duke 63 ACC reg seas wins ... UVA 5 ACC titles (3R; 2T); Duke 1 (T) ... Duke 1 NC

Duke could be considered to have the better season two times (2015; 2017) and Virginia three times (2014; 2016; 2018).

[rsvman]

Question for rsvman:

If indeed reports of Cam's "quarantine" are indeed true, what sort of (reasonable) diagnoses in this situation would be present to justify such a measure? Someone/somewhere on this thread (or another) postulated he may have a "cold," which would, of course, be ludicrous for isolation measures. Are we talking/speculating influenza/rotovivus/rsv (:eek:) here? Inquiring minds and all that stuff...

Thanks!

Knowing nothing of his symptoms or their severity, it's almost impossible to posit a guess here. This time of year there are a multitude of viruses circulating, both respiratory and gastrointestinal. RSV is probably the least likely culprit, given that most people have been infected with it many times by the time they are college age, so it tends to stick to the upper airway and be, generally speaking, a mild common cold illness. Rhinoviruses generally don't make people sick enough to miss basketball games, unless the person has pre-existing asthma, in which case a rhinovirus can trigger an attack.

Influenza generally hits hard and hits suddenly, with fever, chills, muscle aches, and respiratory symptoms, and almost always makes a person sick enough that they can't play basketball. It also spreads more easily and more quickly than the other respiratory viruses due to its being spread in droplet nuclei (small enough to reach the alveoli when inhaled, setting up replication in the lower respiratory tract). The incubation period is short, usually less than 48 hours and sometimes as quick as 16-18 hours. On the plus side, it usually goes away by about 5 days or so (common colds can stretch out to a couple of weeks, but clearly don't make one nearly as sick).

Norovirus is the bugaboo of the GI virus world; it spreads pretty quickly, has a short incubation period (19-48 hours), and absolutely makes you too sick to play. Rotavirus would not be expected in people this age.

I'd argue that for norovirus or influenza, quarantine is certainly not a bad idea. You don't want the entire team to be passing a horrendous virus around for the next week and a half to two weeks; you might have to field the managers and there goes your seeding for the NCAA tournament!

[Troublemaker]

Regarding what I posted: I'm guessing UVA to be favored by 4 by Vegas, meaning UVA is better by 8 or so. I think UVA's better by 12, so would be an 8 pt. favorite in CIS. That's assuming (yeah, I know...) Tre's out and Cam's in. So, I'm guessing a line versus what I think is the right line; 4 versus 8 with no Tre. That's factoring in CIS, with Cam and without Tre. If Cam's healthy, cough, cough, and Tre plays, somewhat healthy, cough, cough, I think it's a pick'em since I think UVA is better right now. If both teams were at full strength I think Duke would be favored by 5, 4 points for CIS plus 1. All of this is simply a guess from someone who has wagered on games for more than a few years and is speculation. I want both teams at full strength because that match-up is exciting and tough to predict. Yet, very fun for speculation (and betting).:eek:

But, I understand your post for the numbers I posted; I should've explained my thinking in more detail. Sorry for that.

duketaylor - I really disagree with some of your estimates, but ultimately, I'm just glad that you're in the Degenerates league. Keep having fun, my friend.

[cato]

a GI big

Is that like Marshall Plumlee?

[Furniture]

I think Duke wins Saturday.

[Kedsy]

Duke could be considered to have the better season two times (2015; 2017) and Virginia three times (2014; 2016; 2018).

I don't know about 2018. If the #1 seed that lost in the first round was Duke and the #2 seed that went to the Elite Eight was UNC, most people around here would be lamenting how UNC had the way better season. I know UVa had the better regular season last year, and I don't like to discount things like the regular season title and the ACCT title, but the NCAAT results and the historic nature of UVa's loss to UMBC made it at least a wash, if not in Duke's favor. And if anyone agrees, that makes it at worst (for Duke) two seasons for Duke, two for Virginia, and one tie.

[heyman25]

I just saw a social media-posted photo of Cam at today's practice, so that's good news.
Steve Wiseman N&O sportswriter tweeted he was at practice.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I don't know about 2018. If the #1 seed that lost in the first round was Duke and the #2 seed that went to the Elite Eight was UNC, most people around here would be lamenting how UNC had the way better season. I know UVa had the better regular season last year, and I don't like to discount things like the regular season title and the ACCT title, but the NCAAT results and the historic nature of UVa's loss to UMBC made it at least a wash, if not in Duke's favor. And if anyone agrees, that makes it at worst (for Duke) two seasons for Duke, two for Virginia, and one tie.

I would agree with that, and I'd add that in all four seasons, Duke was a bigger factor, a bigger story. Until UVa can do some damage in March/April - until they can do something other than conference titles....it will be that way.

[CDu]

Is that like Marshall Plumlee?

LOL - that is a fantastic typo by me (twice). Stupid bumbling fingers hitting the I instead of the U on my phone. Meant bug obviously. But I love your suggested possible explanation instead.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Speaking of March failures, it sounds like KJ Maura is no longer coming to the game. Evidently future Wake Forest (or Virginia Tech) coach Ryan Odom thought better of it.

[dukelifer]

Assuming the Chronicle writer is correct about (a) that being from today's practice, and (b) that being Cam in the photo, we can at least rule out that his illness is bad enough to warrant quarantine.

Honestly, the whole thing feels iffy/sketchy, though. Not raising expectations yet.

I think I can see Tre warming up in a reflection from the backboard.

[devildeac]

Knowing nothing of his symptoms or their severity, it's almost impossible to posit a guess here. This time of year there are a multitude of viruses circulating, both respiratory and gastrointestinal. RSV is probably the least likely culprit, given that most people have been infected with it many times by the time they are college age, so it tends to stick to the upper airway and be, generally speaking, a mild common cold illness. Rhinoviruses generally don't make people sick enough to miss basketball games, unless the person has pre-existing asthma, in which case a rhinovirus can trigger an attack.

Influenza generally hits hard and hits suddenly, with fever, chills, muscle aches, and respiratory symptoms, and almost always makes a person sick enough that they can't play basketball. It also spreads more easily and more quickly than the other respiratory viruses due to its being spread in droplet nuclei (small enough to reach the alveoli when inhaled, setting up replication in the lower respiratory tract). The incubation period is short, usually less than 48 hours and sometimes as quick as 16-18 hours. On the plus side, it usually goes away by about 5 days or so (common colds can stretch out to a couple of weeks, but clearly don't make one nearly as sick).

Norovirus is the bugaboo of the GI virus world; it spreads pretty quickly, has a short incubation period (19-48 hours), and absolutely makes you too sick to play. Rotavirus would not be expected in people this age.

I'd argue that for norovirus or influenza, quarantine is certainly not a bad idea. You don't want the entire team to be passing a horrendous virus around for the next week and a half to two weeks; you might have to field the managers and there goes your seeding for the NCAA tournament!

Great info/insight! Thanks!

(let's see if I'm able to spork you for this-with proper protection, of course :p)

[rdearth15]

I think I can see Tre warming up in a reflection from the backboard.



Is there a link to this picture anywhere?

[Billy Dat]

I think Duke wins Saturday.

I wish I could honestly say I felt the same, but the combo of Tre going down and Virginia's extremely high level of play has me lacking confidence.

I tried to think back to when I had a similar feeling about a home conference game, one that ended in our favor, and I thought of the second Miami game in 2012-13, aka The White Falcon's return. Miami had spanked us by nearly 30 points in Coral Gables a few weeks earlier, when we were #1, and were playing with a ton of confidence. When Ryan went down with an injury, we dropped a bunch of games and were struggling. In Kelly's first game back after a long injury lay-off, he went nuts for 36 including what felt like one hundred 3s, and we needed every one of those points to win by 3. That game was so satisfying because it was really unexpected. If we can win on Saturday, I expect it will also be very satisfying!

[Natty_B]

I don't know about 2018. If the #1 seed that lost in the first round was Duke and the #2 seed that went to the Elite Eight was UNC, most people around here would be lamenting how UNC had the way better season. I know UVa had the better regular season last year, and I don't like to discount things like the regular season title and the ACCT title, but the NCAAT results and the historic nature of UVa's loss to UMBC made it at least a wash, if not in Duke's favor. And if anyone agrees, that makes it at worst (for Duke) two seasons for Duke, two for Virginia, and one tie.

Yeah March is THE thing. Especially when you're the first team to lose to a 16 seed and it was done in a fashion that basically broke Twitter. I would take Duke 2018 over UVA 2018 1,000 times out of 1,000. Just like I would take UNC season from 2000 (making FF as a 8 seed) over Duke's (losing in Sweet 16 as a 1).

[Reilly]

... I would take Duke 2018 over UVA 2018 1,000 times out of 1,000. Just like I would take UNC season from 2000 (making FF as a 8 seed) over Duke's (losing in Sweet 16 as a 1).

I wouldn't. Duke 2018 won no championships; UVA 2018 won 2. 2 > 0. Duke 2000 won 2 championships (ACCR; ACCT) and UNC 2000 won 1 (NCAA region).

Of those four seasons, in terms of accomplishment, I'd rate them: Duke 2000 then UVA 2018 ... then maybe a tie between Duke 2018 and UNC 2000 with a slight nod to Duke 2018 even though no championships, just b/c overall Duke 2000 was so much better than UNC 2000?

[devildeac]

I wouldn't. Duke 2018 won no championships; UVA 2018 won 2. 2 > 0. Duke 2000 won 2 championships (ACCR; ACCT) and UNC 2000 won 1 (NCAA region).

Of those four seasons, in terms of accomplishment, I'd rate them: Duke 2000 then UVA 2018 ... then maybe a tie between Duke 2018 and UNC 2000 with a slight nod to Duke 2018 even though no championships, just b/c overall Duke 2000 was so much better than UNC 2000?

Plus (WRT "u"nc):

https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?43003-UNC-academics-scandal-talk-(moved-from-2019-recruiting-thread)

[flyingdutchdevil]

I wouldn't. Duke 2018 won no championships; UVA 2018 won 2. 2 > 0. Duke 2000 won 2 championships (ACCR; ACCT) and UNC 2000 won 1 (NCAA region).

Of those four seasons, in terms of accomplishment, I'd rate them: Duke 2000 then UVA 2018 ... then maybe a tie between Duke 2018 and UNC 2000 with a slight nod to Duke 2018 even though no championships, just b/c overall Duke 2000 was so much better than UNC 2000?

Same. Yeah, UVa made history (in a bad way), but they get to add a banner. Furthermore, is an Elite Eight appearance for a school like Duke really that great? If we made a FF, then I'd rank our season more successful than UVa. But Grayson's shot didn't fall.

[Rich]

Same. Yeah, UVa made history (in a bad way), but they get to add a banner. Furthermore, is an Elite Eight appearance for a school like Duke really that great? If we made a FF, then I'd rank our season more successful than UVa. But Grayson's shot didn't fall.

Waaaaay too soon!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Same. Yeah, UVa made history (in a bad way), but they get to add a banner.

There are banners and there are banners. At the Duke level now, one more or less ACC banner is meaningless in the big scheme of things, because Duke has hung a ton of regular season and tournament titles, and because Duke has hung 5 of the banner that means the most. Ever since the round robin scheduling was stopped, the regular season banner has meant less. (next year back to 18 games it might mean a little more, but still not a real round robin). The ACCT banner is now really an after thought. The last time Duke won that, it got us seeded and sent to a horrible location, where our still very tired team didn't play well.

I well remember who was the national champ in 2015. I had totally forgotten who won the 2015 regular season (Virginia) and the '15 ACCT (Notre Dame). I have no idea when UVa flamed out of the NCAAT, and I only remember that Notre Dame almost beat Kentucky in the Elite Eight. To me, and I think a lot of people, the Big Dance kinda wipes the slate on all the other stuff. Maybe shouldn't be that way. But it is.

[Wahoo2000]

There are banners and there are banners. At the Duke level now, one more or less ACC banner is meaningless in the big scheme of things, because Duke has hung a ton of regular season and tournament titles, and because Duke has hung 5 of the banner that means the most. Ever since the round robin scheduling was stopped, the regular season banner has meant less. (next year back to 18 games it might mean a little more, but still not a real round robin). The ACCT banner is now really an after thought. The last time Duke won that, it got us seeded and sent to a horrible location, where our still very tired team didn't play well.

I well remember who was the national champ in 2015. I had totally forgotten who won the 2015 regular season (Virginia) and the '15 ACCT (Notre Dame). I have no idea when UVa flamed out of the NCAAT, and I only remember that Notre Dame almost beat Kentucky in the Elite Eight. To me, and I think a lot of people, the Big Dance kinda wipes the slate on all the other stuff. Maybe shouldn't be that way. But it is.

I believe relative importance of conf/conf tourney/NCAA tourney is in the eye of the beholder. Believe me, when you've not won ANYTHING of note for 30ish years, winning multiple ACC regular seasons (by multiple games) and ACC tournaments is a huuuuge deal. For the casual fan? Sure, they only remember the NCAA tournament. For schools with so many titles they can't even be bothered to remember their totals? Sure, they probably don't care that much about conference and regular season titles. For a program that had become a total national afterthought to become a practical fixture in the top 5-10 over a 5-year (and seemingly growing) span? I've loved it. In the end, many UVA fans might find this NCAA "issue" a blessing in disguise (assuming we get over the hump at some point) - because if Bennett took us from nothing to multiple final fours/titles in only like 6-7 years, he'd probably be an NBA head coach now (insert inane "that pace won't work in the NBA" argument here, as if Bennett wouldn't modify strategy). As it is? Being in Charlottesville for 10 years, putting down solid roots with his wife and kids, the struggle it's taking to ultimately reach the mountaintop (assuming he does get there)... that's what turns you into a "lifer".

I'll take 4 years of developing, 5+ years of "choking", if it ultimately gets us 30+ years of Bennett at UVa.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I believe relative importance of conf/conf tourney/NCAA tourney is in the eye of the beholder. Believe me, when you've not won ANYTHING of note for 30ish years, winning multiple ACC regular seasons (by multiple games) and ACC tournaments is a huuuuge deal..

That was kind of my point.....yes, eye of the beholder, and yes, UVa is respected certainly - but no where near Duke's level in hoops as far as national rep goes, or national interest goes. That said, Duke players, coaches, fans have a lot of respect for UVa.

[Billy Dat]

I believe relative importance of conf/conf tourney/NCAA tourney is in the eye of the beholder. Believe me, when you've not won ANYTHING of note for 30ish years, winning multiple ACC regular seasons (by multiple games) and ACC tournaments is a huuuuge deal. For the casual fan? Sure, they only remember the NCAA tournament. For schools with so many titles they can't even be bothered to remember their totals? Sure, they probably don't care that much about conference and regular season titles. For a program that had become a total national afterthought to become a practical fixture in the top 5-10 over a 5-year (and seemingly growing) span? I've loved it. In the end, many UVA fans might find this NCAA "issue" a blessing in disguise (assuming we get over the hump at some point) - because if Bennett took us from nothing to multiple final fours/titles in only like 6-7 years, he'd probably be an NBA head coach now (insert inane "that pace won't work in the NBA" argument here, as if Bennett wouldn't modify strategy). As it is? Being in Charlottesville for 10 years, putting down solid roots with his wife and kids, the struggle it's taking to ultimately reach the mountaintop (assuming he does get there)... that's what turns you into a "lifer".

I'll take 4 years of developing, 5+ years of "choking", if it ultimately gets us 30+ years of Bennett at UVa.

Every year, I hope Duke has a chance at 4 accomplishments...Regular Season ACC title, ACC Tournament title, Final Four, and National Championship. Any year we can accomplish one or more of those things is a year that I think is worth remembering and celebrating.

Now, I agree that the luster of the regular season title has lessened, slightly, since it is no longer a true round robin, but I don't think it has diminished as much as others have.

Your squad has come on like gangbusters under Tony B and staked a claim as the best ACC program, within the ACC, these past few years. While it is true that a Final Four(s) and a title under the suave Mr. Tony will be needed to add to the luster of the program, you certainly have my attention! (and my growing enmity...with all due respect!)

When we were battling tooth and nail (and thrown water bottles, and pennies, a a couple of thousand F words) with Maryland in the first decade of the millennium, a lot of Duke fans used to love to use the "you're not our rival" diss. I never believed it. During that era, the Maryland game was HUGE, and, right now, the Duke v UVA game is HUGE. I am glad we are playing twice and hope it keeps going that way for the foreseeable future.

[lotusland]

I like post season banners in this order: ACCT, Final Four, Natty. I like that every 4 year player for a long while has hung a banner in Cameron . I was worried/hoping for Quin Cook his senior year until they made the Final 4. So I would take and ACCT championship over Elite Eight. Alex and JGold are still without.

[Wahoo2000]

That was kind of my point...yes, eye of the beholder, and yes, UVa is respected certainly - but no where near Duke's level in hoops as far as national rep goes, or national interest goes. That said, Duke players, coaches, fans have a lot of respect for UVa.

To be fair - I'd make that argument (right now) in regards to ANY school. Even KY, UNC, UCLA, etc, etc are getting NOWHERE near the shine that Duke is. Since Duke has "overtaken" KY on the recruiting trail, you've become THE paragon of men's college hoops. Testament to the titles and (maybe more importantly these days) recruiting success.

*FYI - I'm putting UVa a notch below those other bluebloods as well, just made this post so you know that most (if not everyone) who follows college bball knows Duke is in a class by themselves from a national rep/awareness standpoint. To say otherwise just points to hatred/jealousy/irrationality due to rivalry.

[dtl5g]

Haven't seen much discussion about the biggest ? mark strategy-wise going into this game for me, which is:

How does Duke defend UVa?

I have not seen Duke play any zone in the games I have watched so far this year. Historically (or at least since around 2013), zone defenses haven't worked very well against UVa under Bennett (even the Cuse's zone hasn't given us too many problems), as we have been a good enough passing/spacing team to pass it around and make you rotate until we get something WIDE OPEN. This year, we are probably better equipped to handle a zone than ever. Of our 8 man rotation, only Salt and Diakite aren't gonna knock down an open three at a decent clip, and Hunter and Jerome are both pretty good catching the ball in the high post against the zone. I think any zone will be feasted on by us, but especially one thrown together at the last second (I am assuming Duke has not been working on the zone much this year in practice). Even with Duke's superior athletes.

On the other hand, playing M2M defense on our three "movers" is exhausting, as you will be working for a full 20-25 seconds on defense most possessions, which actually is more taxing than running up and down in a fast paced game. Reddish and Barrett probably won't be as effective on O if they are chasing Guy/Clark/Hunter/Jerome around and having to run through Salt's screens all night. Plus, they probably don't have the experience to actually stay with these guys consistently with all the different variations and screen packages we run. That said, with their length and athleticism they can probably recover from being a step behind what we normally see.

So the choice seems to be:
1) play man-to-man, which I would think would more effective on a PPP basis from Duke's perspective, but which will really sap the energy of the guys who have to chase our guys around screens, or
2) play zone, which will probably give UVa a bunch of wide open 3s and a few dunks and could mean we score at a very high PPP rate, but will take far less energy, will be more likely to lead to fast break points, and will take away UVa's "screen game."

My guess is K starts in a man to man, and then switches to a zone once the guys start getting tired about half way through the first half just to give them some "on court rest," and maybe just goes with the "hot hand" from there on (i.e., stay with the defense when/if we go cold, and switch Ds when/if we start to heat up) to try to keep us out of rhythm offensively. The other thing he could do is toy with Bennett, and play zone defense EVERY TIME Jack Salt is in the game, which takes away Salt's main asset (his screening game). By going into the zone, that will encourage Bennett to sub Salt out for someone who can hit a 3, and then K could go right back into M2M. This chess match is going to be very interesting. Young upstart coach who has tasted some success vs. older winningest coach of all time (to whom young upstart coach is sometimes compared).

This is one of the more interesting Duke/UVa matchups of the last 5 years or so (2015 was the most interesting to me, and interestingly that was the first time K went with a zone against us, which he broke out in the second half, and it worked of course).

There are so many questions and interesting subplots to this game:

1) Who guards Zion? I would guess Key, Salt or Diakite, or a combination of all of them, but really have no idea who will be his main defender. My best guess is Key plays a lot and matches up vs. Zion when he is in the game, and Salt and Diakite get him for a few minutes each. None of those options sounds that great to me - Zion is gonna have a good statistical night like he normally does, I think. The key is limiting it. 15/7/4 sounds a lot better than 25/10/6.
2) We have no idea what personnel K is going to use assuming Jones can't go. Does he try to give Goldwire 15+ minutes (if so, Kihei Clark will jump up to the scorer's table - if Goldwire doesn't play, Clark might not either)? Does O'Connell run some point? Who initiates offense?
3) Will Bennett try to get significant minutes for the Durham-raised Huff, and if so, who can he guard? Bolden seems to be the most likely answer, but that might lead to some easy layups/offensive rebounds for Bolden. Maybe Huff could guard White, if all White is doing is spacing the floor.
4) Hunter/Barrett showdown - I think Barrett is going top 3 in the NBA draft no matter what happens, but if Hunter can get the better of Barrett in such a marquis-matchup, Hunter's draft stock probably shoots up a little bit.
5) Kyle Guy has this game marked on his calendar - the UMBC little guy might not be here, but he may as well be in Guy's mind. Does this extra off-court stuff make him play better or worse?
6) Jerome/Reddish matchup is also going to be huge, and an interesting contrast in styles. I am sure Cam is confident he can handle what he sees of Jerome on film, but Jerome has a big bag of tricks.


Anyway, always enjoy some good bball talk and banter. Good luck Saturday and the rest of the way.

Wahoowa.

[Troublemaker]

My guess is K starts in a man to man, and then switches to a zone once the guys start getting tired about half way through the first half just to give them some "on court rest," and maybe just goes with the "hot hand" from there on (i.e., stay with the defense when/if we go cold, and switch Ds when/if we start to heat up) to try to keep us out of rhythm offensively. The other thing he could do is toy with Bennett, and play zone defense EVERY TIME Jack Salt is in the game, which takes away Salt's main asset (his screening game). By going into the zone, that will encourage Bennett to sub Salt out for someone who can hit a 3, and then K could go right back into M2M. This chess match is going to be very interesting. Young upstart coach who has tasted some success vs. older winningest coach of all time (to whom young upstart coach is sometimes compared).

I think you make great points, and I sporked you. It really is a big question whether Duke's perimeter defenders can stick with your shooters around the barrage of blocker screens. We haven't played an opponent yet that plays offense like you guys, and even if an opponent wanted to set up down screens and flare screens, Tre Jones would just take them out of their offense with his ball pressure. I think your suggestion of mixing in zone to both rest and to keep UVA out of rhythm (as best we can) is very possibly how Coach K will play it.

One other solution I like is to attempt to play your blockers off the floor by playing Zion at the 5. I would love to see a lineup of Reddish-O'Connell-Barrett-White-Williamson get utilized, and frankly, I'd play it both as often as possible and as my crunch-time lineup. Yes, you guys could counter with Kihei-Guy-Jerome-Hunter-Key but I don't mind a smallball vs smallball match, especially since Duke isn't really all that small when we play "small."

The possibility of playing Zion at the 5 is really why I'm quietly confident about this game. I think Coach K is good enough to unleash it here.

[lotusland]

Haven't seen much discussion about the biggest ? mark strategy-wise going into this game for me, which is:

How does Duke defend UVa?

I have not seen Duke play any zone in the games I have watched so far this year. Historically (or at least since around 2013), zone defenses haven't worked very well against UVa under Bennett (even the Cuse's zone hasn't given us too many problems), as we have been a good enough passing/spacing team to pass it around and make you rotate until we get something WIDE OPEN. This year, we are probably better equipped to handle a zone than ever. Of our 8 man rotation, only Salt and Diakite aren't gonna knock down an open three at a decent clip, and Hunter and Jerome are both pretty good catching the ball in the high post against the zone. I think any zone will be feasted on by us, but especially one thrown together at the last second (I am assuming Duke has not been working on the zone much this year in practice). Even with Duke's superior athletes.

On the other hand, playing M2M defense on our three "movers" is exhausting, as you will be working for a full 20-25 seconds on defense most possessions, which actually is more taxing than running up and down in a fast paced game. Reddish and Barrett probably won't be as effective on O if they are chasing Guy/Clark/Hunter/Jerome around and having to run through Salt's screens all night. Plus, they probably don't have the experience to actually stay with these guys consistently with all the different variations and screen packages we run. That said, with their length and athleticism they can probably recover from being a step behind what we normally see.

So the choice seems to be:
1) play man-to-man, which I would think would more effective on a PPP basis from Duke's perspective, but which will really sap the energy of the guys who have to chase our guys around screens, or
2) play zone, which will probably give UVa a bunch of wide open 3s and a few dunks and could mean we score at a very high PPP rate, but will take far less energy, will be more likely to lead to fast break points, and will take away UVa's "screen game."

My guess is K starts in a man to man, and then switches to a zone once the guys start getting tired about half way through the first half just to give them some "on court rest," and maybe just goes with the "hot hand" from there on (i.e., stay with the defense when/if we go cold, and switch Ds when/if we start to heat up) to try to keep us out of rhythm offensively. The other thing he could do is toy with Bennett, and play zone defense EVERY TIME Jack Salt is in the game, which takes away Salt's main asset (his screening game). By going into the zone, that will encourage Bennett to sub Salt out for someone who can hit a 3, and then K could go right back into M2M. This chess match is going to be very interesting. Young upstart coach who has tasted some success vs. older winningest coach of all time (to whom young upstart coach is sometimes compared).

This is one of the more interesting Duke/UVa matchups of the last 5 years or so (2015 was the most interesting to me, and interestingly that was the first time K went with a zone against us, which he broke out in the second half, and it worked of course).

There are so many questions and interesting subplots to this game:

1) Who guards Zion? I would guess Key, Salt or Diakite, or a combination of all of them, but really have no idea who will be his main defender. My best guess is Key plays a lot and matches up vs. Zion when he is in the game, and Salt and Diakite get him for a few minutes each. None of those options sounds that great to me - Zion is gonna have a good statistical night like he normally does, I think. The key is limiting it. 15/7/4 sounds a lot better than 25/10/6.
2) We have no idea what personnel K is going to use assuming Jones can't go. Does he try to give Goldwire 15+ minutes (if so, Kihei Clark will jump up to the scorer's table - if Goldwire doesn't play, Clark might not either)? Does O'Connell run some point? Who initiates offense?
3) Will Bennett try to get significant minutes for the Durham-raised Huff, and if so, who can he guard? Bolden seems to be the most likely answer, but that might lead to some easy layups/offensive rebounds for Bolden. Maybe Huff could guard White, if all White is doing is spacing the floor.
4) Hunter/Barrett showdown - I think Barrett is going top 3 in the NBA draft no matter what happens, but if Hunter can get the better of Barrett in such a marquis-matchup, Hunter's draft stock probably shoots up a little bit.
5) Kyle Guy has this game marked on his calendar - the UMBC little guy might not be here, but he may as well be in Guy's mind. Does this extra off-court stuff make him play better or worse?
6) Jerome/Reddish matchup is also going to be huge, and an interesting contrast in styles. I am sure Cam is confident he can handle what he sees of Jerome on film, but Jerome has a big bag of tricks.


Anyway, always enjoy some good bball talk and banter. Good luck Saturday and the rest of the way.

Wahoowa.
We haven’t seen any sign of zone this year. I doubt anything is installed for UVA and, with Tre expected back soon, I doubt there’s a rush to make a major change. K will probably tweak who we chase and who we switch on screens and go with the defense we’ve played all year.

[Kedsy]

Yes, you guys could counter with Kihei-Guy-Jerome-Hunter-Key but I don't mind a smallball vs smallball match, especially since Duke isn't really all that small when we play "small."

Yeah, the smallest guy in your proposed "small" lineup is 6'6", 183. Their 5'9" kid would be giving up 9 inches and 28 pounds to AOC (as hard as it is to believe anyone would be giving up 28 pounds to Alex).

[uh_no]

We haven’t seen any sign of zone this year. I doubt anything is installed for UVA and, with Tre expected back soon, I doubt there’s a rush to make a major change. K will probably tweak who we chase and who we switch on screens and go with the defense we’ve played all year.

Ultimately, one of the bigger problems on defense I saw on monday was Boldens lack of switching back. He would switch fine, but <whoever> would be ready to switch back, and bolden would catch on too late....usually jack or whomever would help down low, but then, of course, you have a wide open shooter. Getting Cam's back is a substantial upgrade on the defensive end, and I think will help mitigate some of those scenarios.

It won't help AS much as Tre's pocket picking propensity, but certainly was a huge part of the problem on monday.

So ultimately, I agree with you....you don't toss the room for this. You accept that your on 1 defender is a bit off normal, accept that you might need to help a bit more, and go.

[Troublemaker]

So, in other words, we aren’t going to change R.J. or Cam’s role. Instead we’ll mostly sub JGold and AOC in Tre’s spot. This also totally validates the Instagram posts heralding the arrival of JGold!


We haven’t seen any sign of zone this year. I doubt anything is installed for UVA and, with Tre expected back soon, I doubt there’s a rush to make a major change. K will probably tweak who we chase and who we switch on screens and go with the defense we’ve played all year.

I think Coach K has tricked you. I think, within reason, we'll definitely see some surprises in this game.

[UVa1981]

Well, at least we get a lot of time to talk about yesterday's game, amiright? Anywho, I will distract myself now by writing up the scouting report for UVa. Though we do have a number of UVa fans that can chime in as well. Here goes:

UVa is a terrific team. They are extremely well-coached, extremely disciplined, extremely experienced, and now have a fair amount of talent on the court as well. It's not a good time to be facing them without our PG and perhaps without (or possibly with a limited) Reddish as well. But, such appears to be the case. So, time to make lemonade.

UVa is methodical. They are patient on both ends, and make every possession count. On defense, they do everything at an elite level except block shots and force turnovers. They run the pack line defense, and Bennett has yet another group of stout players to run it to perfection. It's a frustrating defense designed to protect the paint and minimize easy looks. Generally speaking, the weakness of the pack line is 3pt shooting. Which is, unfortunately, not our strength. To beat them, we'll need to be well organized and pick our spots and find good shots. Or, we'll need to beat them in transition. Which is, of course, hard to do when they don't turn it over at all.

On offense, UVa shoots extremely well from 3 and from the FT line. They take good shots, and they rarely turn it over. They slow the game down to maximize their defensive presence, but they still get it done efficiently on offense. This will be roughly the second-toughest game we face short of a deep tourney run. They are no joke.

Centers: Jack Salt (6'10", 250lb fifth-year senior from New Zealand) is the starting center. Salt is a big, rugged, super-strong, but entirely unskilled (offensively) big. He rebounds well offensively, and is more of a positional defender. He knows his role, and makes no effort to step outside of it. Salt will commit his fair share of fouls (2.6 per 20 mpg), but that's okay because he's not asked to play 30+ mpg. Jay Huff (7'1", 230lb redshirt sophomore) is the backup center. Huff is a terrific rebounder and shotblocker, and also has nice shooting range. That said, he plays fairly sparingly (~10mpg).

Forwards: Mamadi Diakite (6'9", 225lb redshirt junior from Guinea) is the starter. Diakite is a solid shotblocker and okay rebounder, with a not terrible jumpshot. He's not the most fluid with the ball in his hands though, and like Salt he doesn't try to force things on offense. But he plays his role solidly. Braxton Key (6'8", 225lb junior transfer from Alabama) is the primary option off the bench in this role. Key is a terrific rebounder and has good shooting range. He's quite capable of putting up big point totals as the Hoos' sixth man.

Wings: DeAndre Hunter (6'7", 225lb redshirt sophomore) is one of two headliners here for the Wahoos. Hunter had a breakout season in the second half of last year as a second-year freshman. But he chose to return to school and UVa appreciates that. Hunter has continued how he finished last year, and is deserving of a spot on the All-ACC team. He's extremely athletic, extremely strong, versatile defensively, and can score at all three levels offensively. He'll be playing in the NBA next year almost certainly. Alongside Hunter is the other big name in Kyle Guy (6'2", 175lb junior). Guy has long since dropped the man bun, but his game hasn't dropped off at all. He's electric offensively: a terrific leaper, good ballhandler, and an elite shooter. He's unfortunately undersized for his natural position (SG), so his NBA prospects may be a bit more limited. But he's a first-team All-ACC level of player. Just an absolute stud scorer. He will play as much as his legs can handle.

Guards: Ty Jerome (6'5", 195lb junior) runs the show. Jerome is a stout defender, very physical despite not necessarily being overly athletic (not that he's an athletic liability, just that he's not explosive like Hunter and Guy). Jerome is a steady hand as a point guard, crafty enough to get his shot in tough spots. He's not really a break-you-down PG, but he is a terrific distributor and game manager. Jerome is also a fantastic shooter. He and Guy work to make the offense go, and he Guy and Hunter take the VAST majority of the shots for UVa. Kihei Clark (5'9", 155lb freshman) is the backup PG. Clark is a LITTLE fella, but he's lightning quick and a dynamo with the ball in his hands. His size really limits him overall, but he's a pesky presence when he is in there. Jerome will often move off-ball alongside Clark as well.

The Hoos play a 7.5 man rotation, and will generally play smaller whenever Salt is out. They slow the pace, which keeps them out of serious foul trouble most of the time. It will be a meatgrinder of a game for us. Hopefully our young team finds themselves up to the challenge!

First off, a tip of the hat to CDU for a good scouting report.

Players:

4s and 5s:

Salt: Pure 5. Strong physically. Not too much of a threat offensively, though he will put up shots at the rim and takes the occasional lob for a dunk or layup. Improving rebounder with strong hands. Surprisingly good basketball IQ for a foreign (New Zealand) import. Not as exceptional on hedge-and-recover as Wilkins was, but, again, surprisingly good. Averaging 20 minutes a game. High of 12 pts against Maryland.

Diakite: 4/5. Gifted athlete with a much better offensive game (including jump shot and moves around the basket; 82% FT shooter) than most know; this is because he’s relatively new to basketball (parents are both doctors living in Guinea). Improving defensively; once had a tendency to try to block every shot; good hedge-and-recover. Can put up double figures from time to time. High of 18 pts against BC. Averaging 7 points/game. Not one of our 3 offensive mainstays but it’s a mistake to give him any room.

Huff: 4/5. The most gifted offensive player in the true front court, but nevertheless has a green light to take a three. Can do a lot of damage offensively in a very short time. Capable of tak-ing the ball to the rim with one dribble from the free throw line. Played guard early on in high school before his growth spurt took him to his present 7-1. His defense has limited his playing time up until the ACC season this year, but now he’s showing up even in early minutes. Very good shot-blocker but has the tendency to try to block too many. High of 14 pts against Marshall.

1s and 2s:

Jerome: 1/2. Improved 3-point range over last year, but still averaging 41%. Quicker first step than most notice. Best basketball IQ on the team. Occasionally has a small spurt of TOs, but generally goes stretches without any. Exceptional passer. Having Clark has allowed him to play off the ball more this year, giving the team more offensive versatility. High of 25 pts against South Carolina. One of our offensive mainstays.

Guy: 1/2. Second best basketball IQ on the team. Under rated as a rebounder; averages 4+ per game; lately has been getting 7 or 8. On a tear this year from the 3-point line, averaging 47% despite all the defensive attention he gets. Getting to the rim more this year. High of 30 pts against Marshall. One of our offensive mainstays.

Clark: pure 1. Very, very quick; gets steals and charges with frequency. Think scrappy. Will frustrate the other team’s PG. VTech's PG Robinson got teed for shoving him after Robinson called a TO (urban legend, but Clark acknowledged it in a recent interview, has it that he so frustrated Je-rome during practice that Jerome sent the ball in search of Clark’s head). Had been in a shooting slump (some attribute this to the fractured wrist that just came out of a splint), but may be finding his stroke with 3 made 3-point shots against VTech. Low profile for most of high school but then emerged as MVP of Peach Jam, leading his team to the title while average 10 points per game on 48% shooting (45% on 3-pointers). High of 9 pts against VTech.

2s-4s

Hunter: 2-4. Might be the best defender on the team. Rarely falls for the pump fake. Can defend the 1-4. Has strongest versatile offensive game for UVa: shooting 3-pointers at a 44% clip; can get to the rim with either hand; plays the pull-up/jab step game to get off mid-range shots fre-quently and with great accuracy. High of 23 pts against Marshall. One of our offensive mainstays.

Key: 2-4. Former All-SEC rookie team. Best rebounder on the team. Good defensive player but occasionally falls for the pump fake. Slashes to the rim and shoots the 3 respectably (35% av-erage). High of 20 pts against FSU. Averaging 7 points/game. Not one of our 3 offensive mainstays but it’s a mistake to give him any room.

Team:

Defense: lost two of our best players ever, but have not dropped off that much. I attribute this mostly to the individual development of all the players, but those who have made the most progress are Diakite and Huff. Nevertheless, Jerome and Guy have tightened up their defensive games. Key has added another very competent defensive body but Clark adds another dimension: an on-ball defender that does everything but climb into your jersey. The dead give-away is that Clark played significant minutes very early on for a freshman.

Offense: this is where UVa is significantly improved. Hunter is not just at the end of his freshman year; he’s at the beginning of his sophomore year, playing with much more polish, and scoring at all three levels. Key’s addition to the team and Huff’s emergence from the bench give Bennett two more offensive weapons. Above, I noted the players’ high games to make the point that there are a lot of players on the team that can’t be completely ignored, though Salt is unlikely to hurt you badly so long as someone keeps an eye on him. Similarly, Clark has yet to have a big game, the biggest being the one against VTech (3 of 5 from the 3-point line) but I doubt VTech was actively looking for him to score.

Outlook for the game:

I wish we were going into this game with Duke at full strength: that would be the “truth se-rum,” as Bennett calls it, that tells you exactly what you’ve got. With Jones out (more about this at the end), one question is whether Krzyzewski can find another guard who can touch the paint. Teams that beat us tend to do it by hitting a fair number of threes, frequently via drive and kick.

Another question is whether the pack line can keep Williamson out of the paint. Part of that depends upon how well he is at making the pass out to the perimeter for an open 3-pointer. N.B., Bennett declined to post double trap VTech’s Blackshear for that very reason. I’m hesitant to even hazard a guess, but I’d better like Duke’s chances to avoid the post trap if Jones were playing and touching the paint.

Duke has been playing better defense this year than with previous editions of the OADs, but I’m not sure that can continue without Jones; he’s simply your best (IMO) on-ball defender.

One thing that has been considerably different this year is the scoring and speed of our games. It’s not that we’ve suddenly become an up-and-down-the-floor team; rather it’s that we have more offensive weapons this year, so it’s easier to find a good look early in the offense than in past years. So we’re scoring in the 70s and 80s more than before (with some in the 90s and one at 100, but those were pretty easy non-conference games). Bennett’s philosophy, contrary to popu-lar opinion, is not to slow the game down; it’s to make you take a contested shot on one end of the floor and then for his team to get a good look on the other end of the floor. It’s pretty simple, but it works pretty well when you can pull it off.

About Jones’ injury (I’ve read shoulder acromioclavicular (AC) separation): I had my own AC separation in December 2015, and it’s not healed yet. From what I’ve heard from my doctors at GWU and VCU, the severity of the AC separation is a function of how many shoulder ligaments are affected (the shoulder is an incredibly complex joint) and how badly the ligaments are affected (stretch, partial tear, or complete tear). A low-grade separation entailing only stretching of one or two ligaments can heal in 2-5 weeks. For the most part, the docs recommend ice, slinging, gentle motion to prevent stiffness, and exercise putty to improve function in the joints downstream from the shoulder. It’s impossible to tell, but from the impact I would guess (and surely hope) Jones has a low-grade separation. Good luck to Jones on the healing and good luck to your team the rest of the way except, of course, when they are playing us.

[duketaylor]

To be fair - I'd make that argument (right now) in regards to ANY school. Even KY, UNC, UCLA, etc, etc are getting NOWHERE near the shine that Duke is. Since Duke has "overtaken" KY on the recruiting trail, you've become THE paragon of men's college hoops. Testament to the titles and (maybe more importantly these days) recruiting success.

*FYI - I'm putting UVa a notch below those other bluebloods as well, just made this post so you know that most (if not everyone) who follows college bball knows Duke is in a class by themselves from a national rep/awareness standpoint. To say otherwise just points to hatred/jealousy/irrationality due to rivalry.

Wahoo2000, I really appreciate your posts as well as the few other Wahoos that venture here. I truly think you have the next "K" in Tony Bennett. Somewhat painful to say. I'm fearful, a little, in who replaces K. Yet, I'm not sure UVA can lure the top talent in the land to C'ville (I live in Richmond) and it's a tough sell, IMO. So, UVA doesn't have Raleigh and Chapel Hell close by to offset Derm (which has improved a ton since I was in school). C'ville has also grown, but is still a tough sell to many recruits looking for a certain lifestyle. I was in school when the Hoos had Ralph, Othell, Ricky and others. Fun days, to be sure. At least for y'all. And unc, and State, plus GTech. We we emerging. K recruited Dawkins, Alarie, Bilas, Henderson, then Amaker, etc. And Maryland got much better.

Sorry I strayed a bit. I think it's hard to draw top talent to C'ville. Ralph was close by. Hard to get top talent from anywhere to come to Wahoo-land. Especially with the style of play UVA has deployed recently until this year. Now with more up-tempo offense y'all should begin to get more highly ranked players. Still tough since C'ville is so outside any mainstream truly urban area. Yet, I truly respect what's been built there and what I think's gonna happen there. Thank you for your thoughts on our forum.

[DarkstarWahoo]

I think you make great points, and I sporked you. It really is a big question whether Duke's perimeter defenders can stick with your shooters around the barrage of blocker screens. We haven't played an opponent yet that plays offense like you guys, and even if an opponent wanted to set up down screens and flare screens, Tre Jones would just take them out of their offense with his ball pressure. I think your suggestion of mixing in zone to both rest and to keep UVA out of rhythm (as best we can) is very possibly how Coach K will play it.

One other solution I like is to attempt to play your blockers off the floor by playing Zion at the 5. I would love to see a lineup of Reddish-O'Connell-Barrett-White-Williamson get utilized, and frankly, I'd play it both as often as possible and as my crunch-time lineup. Yes, you guys could counter with Kihei-Guy-Jerome-Hunter-Key but I don't mind a smallball vs smallball match, especially since Duke isn't really all that small when we play "small."

The possibility of playing Zion at the 5 is really why I'm quietly confident about this game. I think Coach K is good enough to unleash it here.
Mark Titus compared Guy’s offensive style this year to JJ Redick*, and there’s something to that comparison in the way both of them just tear around the court off screen after screen, looking for a small opening. It must be exhausting to try to keep up.

*Whom I briefly guarded in one game in high school, which went about as well for me as you’re all probably thinking.

[UVa1981]

I am glad we are playing twice and hope it keeps going that way for the foreseeable future.

That's that's one thing that hacked me off last year: we played only once. Now--believe it or not--if we are going to play Duke once, I would much rather it be in Durham than Charlottesville. This is because playing in Durham--even if you lose--prepares you better than playing in Charlottesville--even if you win. IMO.

[CDu]

I find it interesting that multiple people have suggested that Clark essentially won’t play in this one. I find that hard to believe considering he has played at least 19 minutes in every game and averages 26 mpg overall. If Clark doesn’t play, does that mean that Key, Hunter, Jerome, and Guy all play 40 minutes? I can’t imagine that the guy who is fourth on the team in minutes would suddenly not play, especially when he is essentially the only perimeter sub (because Diakite, Huff, and Salt combine for only a bit over 40 mpg, I am lumping Key in as essentially a starter). I have to imagine Clark plays at least 15 minutes in this one, even with the size disparity.

[fuse]

Glad to see the Tre back soon thread.
While trying to wrap my mind around if that could be UVa, and admitting there are chunks of this thread I’ve not read, if Zion is not at the top of the key in a pack line busting position, I have to wonder if a Zion as point guard experiment would play out in Duke’s favour.

[UVa1981]

I find it interesting that multiple people have suggested that Clark essentially won’t play in this one. I find that hard to believe considering he has played at least 19 minutes in every game and averages 26 mpg overall. If Clark doesn’t play, does that mean that Key, Hunter, Jerome, and Guy all play 40 minutes? I can’t imagine that the guy who is fourth on the team in minutes would suddenly not play, especially when he is essentially the only perimeter sub (because Diakite, Huff, and Salt combine for only a bit over 40 mpg, I am lumping Key in as essentially a starter). I have to imagine Clark plays at least 15 minutes in this one, even with the size disparity.

IMO, Clark is unlikely to get less than his minimum 19 minutes. This is because Bennett likes to slow the progress of the ball up the court with a view towards giving the opponent's offense even less time to crack the pack before the shot clock expires. Similarly, Bennett has also used a soft press to slow the progress of the ball.

If the pack only has to defend for 20 seconds, it makes life more difficult for the offense.

[CDu]

IMO, Clark is unlikely to get less than his minimum 19 minutes. This is because Bennett likes to slow the progress of the ball up the court with a view towards giving the opponent's offense even less time to crack the pack before the shot clock expires. Similarly, Bennett has also used a soft press to slow the progress of the ball.

If the pack only has to defend for 20 seconds, it makes life more difficult for the offense.

Yeah, I agree. That is why I was surprised to see some suggesting he wouldn’t see the floor. It doesn’t seem like Bennett at all to change his team based on the opponent. He built his success off of this system and these players; it doesn’t make sense to change it now.

[UrinalCake]

Really looking forward to the Jack White/Jack Salt matchup in the battle of who is the most jacked.

Also, there is no way I would want to be the first and only 1 seed to lose to a 16. I would rather miss the tournament completely. If that happened to Duke I would be hearing about it from every non-Duke fan around me for the rest of my life.

[devilirium]

IMO, Clark is unlikely to get less than his minimum 19 minutes. This is because Bennett likes to slow the progress of the ball up the court with a view towards giving the opponent's offense even less time to crack the pack before the shot clock expires. Similarly, Bennett has also used a soft press to slow the progress of the ball.

If the pack only has to defend for 20 seconds, it makes life more difficult for the offense.

The one area where he might get exploited a little bit is if one of Zion takes one of UVA's bigs outside, if the play goes away from Clark then I could see Duke using Reddish/Barrett as a cutter to the goal (or whoever Clark switches off too). Or throw it high, dunk, bank off the glass etc. Problem is that Duke couldn't really exploit that unless our few 3 point shooters are on target.

[Wahoo2000]

I find it interesting that multiple people have suggested that Clark essentially won’t play in this one. I find that hard to believe considering he has played at least 19 minutes in every game and averages 26 mpg overall. If Clark doesn’t play, does that mean that Key, Hunter, Jerome, and Guy all play 40 minutes? I can’t imagine that the guy who is fourth on the team in minutes would suddenly not play, especially when he is essentially the only perimeter sub (because Diakite, Huff, and Salt combine for only a bit over 40 mpg, I am lumping Key in as essentially a starter). I have to imagine Clark plays at least 15 minutes in this one, even with the size disparity.

He can probably play whenever O'Connell or Goldwire are in the game, but I wouldn't think Bennett will match up up on anyone else. MAAAAYBE Reddish for brief stints. Bennett does absolutely LOVE what Clark brings from an effort/mentality/toughness standpoint. It's funny to me that Bennett's favorite guys in this regard seem to be Salt and Clark - the biggest and smallest guys on the team. I guess the old adage is true - it's not the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Really looking forward to the Jack White/Jack Salt matchup in the battle of who is the most jacked.

Also, there is no way I would want to be the first and only 1 seed to lose to a 16. I would rather miss the tournament completely. If that happened to Duke I would be hearing about it from every non-Duke fan around me for the rest of my life.

Boy, do I have some good news for you, then!

In the same podcast with the Guy/Redick comparison, Titus referred to the matchup you mention as a Jack-off.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

In the same podcast with the Guy/Redick comparison, Titus referred to the matchup you mention as a Jack-off.

Oh boy, that's TOO easy on the pun situation.....I better not.......

[CDu]

Oh boy, that's TOO easy on the pun situation....I better not....

I am quite sure that Titus was making that very joke.

[proelitedota]

I can't stand Titus and Tate. They become irrational with their hate at times, which is all the time with Duke.

[dtl5g]

Yeah, I agree. That is why I was surprised to see some suggesting he wouldn’t see the floor. It doesn’t seem like Bennett at all to change his team based on the opponent. He built his success off of this system and these players; it doesn’t make sense to change it now.

Bennett often completely changes playing time based on matchups (usually defensive matchups), and guys sit for a game and then play 25 minutes the next if he doesn't think they are the best matchup option.

Kihei Clark will see the floor if there is someone he can guard, but he won't see the floor if there isn't anyone for him to guard.

He would've probably played 30 minutes if Tre Jones had played, but if you guys are playing big, Bennett is not going to allow Clark to guard Reddish or Barrett, that is for sure.

I'm sure Clark will basically ALWAYS be in when/if Goldwire is in.

[dtl5g]

Really looking forward to the Jack White/Jack Salt matchup in the battle of who is the most jacked.

Also, there is no way I would want to be the first and only 1 seed to lose to a 16. I would rather miss the tournament completely. If that happened to Duke I would be hearing about it from every non-Duke fan around me for the rest of my life.

Nobody wants to be the first and only 1 seed to lose to a 16. And yes, everybody talks about UMBC when UVa bball comes up, but who cares? I'm still proud of my team, I'm still glad we went from unranked to #1 overall seed and dominating the ACC, and it doesn't bother me much (of course I'd rather not hear it). Even when we win it all, people will still be saying negative things. Do people NOT talk about Lehigh and Mercer? I think the championships in your trophy case and banners hanging from the rafters probably keep you from crying about those Lehigh taunts.

As for Jack Salt and Jack White, not only are they both named Jack and good looking blonde kids, but your Jack is from Australia, and our Jack is from New Zealand, which of course makes them natural rivals. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTwAoFR4DuM

[CoachJ10]

Predict reffing. But if Zion and RJ can be aggressive AND smart..getting Hunter and Salt in foul trouble could defintely hurt a UVA team that needs both those guys on the court to have a chance to beat us.

[DevilFalcon]

Barrett's time to shine running the offense! LGD!

[Kedsy]

One thing that has been considerably different this year is the scoring and speed of our games.

According to Pomeroy, Virginia is currently the slowest team in the country. So it doesn't sound like the speed of your games has changed all that much.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

According to Pomeroy, Virginia is currently the slowest team in the country. So it doesn't sound like the speed of your games has changed all that much.

But they are faster than last year, and last year was faster than the year before. They carved about a half second off each possession each year.....now at 20.4 seconds per possession as opposed to 21.5 two years ago. This also from Pomeroy.

[CDu]

Bennett often completely changes playing time based on matchups (usually defensive matchups), and guys sit for a game and then play 25 minutes the next if he doesn't think they are the best matchup option.

Kihei Clark will see the floor if there is someone he can guard, but he won't see the floor if there isn't anyone for him to guard.

He would've probably played 30 minutes if Tre Jones had played, but if you guys are playing big, Bennett is not going to allow Clark to guard Reddish or Barrett, that is for sure.

I'm sure Clark will basically ALWAYS be in when/if Goldwire is in.

UVa’s top seven players have all played every game this year except for Salt, who missed only the Coppin St game. So I don’t think “often” is the term I would use for how regularly Bennett takes guys completely out of the lineup altogether.

And again I ask, if you think Clark will only play if Goldwire is in, are you thus expecting all of Jerome, Guy, Hunter, and Key to play 40 minutes? Because it is likely that Goldwire won’t play more than a few minutes, if at all. And Clark is the only other perimeter player who plays for UVa besides those guys.

[Troublemaker]

But they are faster than last year, and last year was faster than the year before. They carved about a half second off each possession each year...now at 20.4 seconds per possession as opposed to 21.5 two years ago. This also from Pomeroy.

Yeah, but if you go back even one more year, UVA this season is slower than that season in that stat (offensive possession length on kenpom). And overall, in Bennett's 10 seasons at UVA, this season is slower than 5 others in that stat. (And generally, recent seasons have been slower than his early years. [Which is interesting because his early years had a longer shot clock.]) And, in terms of national ranking in that stat, this season is actually the slowest of Bennett's career, barely edging out the past two seasons by being 352nd in offensive possession length to the 351st of the past two seasons. I would agree with Kedsy that UVA isn't appreciably faster.

[slower]

I can't stand Titus and Tate. They become irrational with their hate at times, which is all the time with Duke.

Titus can be amusing. Tate Frazier is your typical Tar Heel, Duke-hating, d-bag. It NEVER stops with that particular sub-group of humanity, even if they seem like otherwise decent people.

[Spanarkel]

Yeah, but if you go back even one more year, UVA this season is slower than that season in that stat (offensive possession length on kenpom). And overall, in Bennett's 10 seasons at UVA, this season is slower than 5 others in that stat. (And generally, recent seasons have been slower than his early years. [Which is interesting because his early years had a longer shot clock.]) And, in terms of national ranking in that stat, this season is actually the slowest of Bennett's career, barely edging out the past two seasons by being 352nd in offensive possession length to the 351st of the past two seasons. I would agree with Kedsy that UVA isn't appreciably faster.

UVa's scoring average of 74ppg this season is the highest under Coach Bennett.

[whereinthehellami]

Nobody wants to be the first and only 1 seed to lose to a 16. And yes, everybody talks about UMBC when UVa bball comes up, but who cares? I'm still proud of my team, I'm still glad we went from unranked to #1 overall seed and dominating the ACC, and it doesn't bother me much (of course I'd rather not hear it). Even when we win it all, people will still be saying negative things. Do people NOT talk about Lehigh and Mercer? I think the championships in your trophy case and banners hanging from the rafters probably keep you from crying about those Lehigh taunts.

As for Jack Salt and Jack White, not only are they both named Jack and good looking blonde kids, but your Jack is from Australia, and our Jack is from New Zealand, which of course makes them natural rivals. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTwAoFR4DuM

I know many UVA fans who do not feel that way though. More power to you but that was arguably the biggest upset in college basketball history and it will never go away. And it wasn't just that a 16 seed won it, but that they absolutely smoked a #1 seed. And not just a #1 seed but the overall #1 seed.

I really like Tony, his program, and his style but make no mistake that is a stain that is never going away. Winning a championship will help though.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I know many UVA fans who do not feel that way though. More power to you but that was arguably the biggest upset in college basketball history and it will never go away. And it wasn't just that a 16 seed won it, but that they absolutely smoked a #1 seed. And not just a #1 seed but the overall #1 seed.

I really like Tony, his program, and his style but make no mistake that is a stain that is never going away. Winning a championship will help though.

RIGHTO......the stain of Mercer and Lehigh remain, but in all honesty, those were not great Duke teams. They were certainly not one seeds, let alone THE number one seed. The Mercer stain was also bleached immediately the next season with the Natty. If the Hoos can do that, then the stain of last year will not be gone, but it will be whitened a bit.

[robed deity]

RIGHTO...the stain of Mercer and Lehigh remain, but in all honesty, those were not great Duke teams. They were certainly not one seeds, let alone THE number one seed. The Mercer stain was also bleached immediately the next season with the Natty. If the Hoos can do that, then the stain of last year will not be gone, but it will be whitened a bit.

While I understand the Lehigh taunts, because it was well, Lehigh and mighty Duke, the best talent on the floor that night wasn't playing for Duke. And that has been pretty obvious at the next level too.

[Kedsy]

UVa's scoring average of 74ppg this season is the highest under Coach Bennett.

That’s not because they’re playing faster. It’s because they’re playing more efficient offense.

[CDu]

That’s not because they’re playing faster. It’s because they’re playing more efficient offense.

And presumably it is also a number that will go down somewhat as they hit the tougher part of their schedule. Right now it is a bit inflated by having predominantly played the cupcake portion of the schedule. In their 3 non-BC conference games, they've averaged just 69.7 ppg, for example.

[rasputin]

I know many UVA fans who do not feel that way though. More power to you but that was arguably the biggest upset in college basketball history and it will never go away. And it wasn't just that a 16 seed won it, but that they absolutely smoked a #1 seed. And not just a #1 seed but the overall #1 seed.

I really like Tony, his program, and his style but make no mistake that is a stain that is never going away. Winning a championship will help though.

UMBC isn't even the biggest upset in Virginia basketball history.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Is there any other fan base that brings even half the basketball analysis that our brethren at UVA bring to the board? Serious question.

You Wahoos know your ball. Much respect.

And I hope we whip you tomorrow.

[CY_devil]

Titus can be amusing. Tate Frazier is your typical Tar Heel, Duke-hating, d-bag. It NEVER stops with that particular sub-group of humanity, even if they seem like otherwise decent people.

This! Agreed 100%. It is impossible to get him to be even slightly objective towards Duke. I'm done listening to their show.... DBR podcast only for this guy.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

RIGHTO...the stain of Mercer and Lehigh remain, but in all honesty, those were not great Duke teams. They were certainly not one seeds, let alone THE number one seed. The Mercer stain was also bleached immediately the next season with the Natty. If the Hoos can do that, then the stain of last year will not be gone, but it will be whitened a bit.

Yeah, the Duke upsets in the tournament are certainly low points for our fans and subjects of ridicule froms rivals. But ANY program has those moments (Weber State?) and they fade much more quickly when you are able to hang banners.

[dukelifer]

Is there any other fan base that brings even half the basketball analysis that our brethren at UVA bring to the board? Serious question.

You Wahoos know your ball. Much respect.

And I hope we whip you tomorrow.

They do bring a lot of knowledge of the ACC season. After that- no so much ;)

[DarkstarWahoo]

Is there any other fan base that brings even half the basketball analysis that our brethren at UVA bring to the board? Serious question.

You Wahoos know your ball. Much respect.

And I hope we whip you tomorrow.

I was just feeling annoyed that we have to wait 30 more hours for the game. My productivity today has been...suboptimal.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I was just feeling annoyed that we have to wait 30 more hours for the game. My productivity today has been...suboptimal.

TRANSLATION: For those grads of Cow College and unCheat, who might be lurking, what our Cavalier brother means is his work today is less than perfect.

[SavDukeGrad]

I was talking to someone in the Iron Dukes’ office this morning. And she mentioned how much increased security presence there was around Cameron/campus today. I guess I’m not surprised, but thought it an interesting tidbit that I would share. Go Duke!!

[lotusland]

I was talking to someone in the Iron Dukes’ office this morning. And she mentioned how much increased security presence there was around Cameron/campus today. I guess I’m not surprised, but thought it an interesting tidbit that I would share. Go Duke!!

Why? I hope they are there to protect Tre’s Shoulder from bad spirits.

[uh_no]

Why? I hope they are there to protect Tre’s Shoulder from bad spirits.

if it's actually true, namely, if there is more security than there would be for any large event on campus, I can guess a couple reasons:

1) game day is rolling in
2) they don't want a repeat of the mob scene from the UNC game, especially given the game is on saturday, has the possibility of being the biggest game of the year, the students are already tenting, and are going to almost assuredly be lubricated by game time
3) result of the same fear mongering that brought us the current draconian stadium entrance security policies.

[budwom]

Local spirits improving with the Tre news (looking to exit the Injury Portal sometime relatively soon), 18-24" snowfall looms, house full of food and licker (sic), what else could we want? (besides a 15 year old kid with a snow shovel...kids don't seem to do that any more)

[Bob Green]

Local spirits improving with the Tre news (looking to exit the Injury Portal sometime relatively soon),

Good one! Alas...


You must spread some Comments around before commenting on budwom again.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I was talking to someone in the Iron Dukes’ office this morning. And she mentioned how much increased security presence there was around Cameron/campus today. I guess I’m not surprised, but thought it an interesting tidbit that I would share. Go Duke!!

Trying to keep all the Cheats fans who love Bilas away no doubt.....

[CDu]

Some more thoughts on the game. Aside from the obvious outside prayer that Jones plays and plays effectively, here are some things I'll be really interested in watching:

1. It will be very interesting to see how our "switch everything" defense works against the UVa offense. As has been noted by others, they run guys off screens religiously as they work to get a good look. That's a great strategy if teams aren't switching everything, and can still be a great strategy even if they are. But in terms of wearing down the opponent's legs, that approach will have a bit less juice against this year's team, as all but one guy in the rotation will be a part of the "switch everything" campaign. And even that one guy (Bolden) will switch on anyone not named Clark or Guy. What will be imperative is that our guys will need to do a LOT of talking, because UVa's ballhandlers are very adept at taking advantage of a lapse in defense. So we don't want to get caught losing a guy (or a Guy).

2. On offense, will Zion be able to unlock UVa's defense the way he did against Syracuse? Well, I should rephrase. He almost certainly will not go for 35 points on 20 FG attempts like he did against the Cuse. But can he remain an elite offensive force even against what will be an extremely congested lane? If he can still get relatively easy (for him) baskets, that changes the complexion of this matchup substantially.

3. How will Barrett and Reddish perform? Barrett has generally struggled to score efficiently against well-organized, experienced defenses so far. He has the talent for sure. But since he isn't a good shooter and not a great dribbler, he really needs to rely on his savvy off the dribble to be effective in the half court. Either that, or do his damage off-ball. But it will be harder to get half-court looks without Jones. There may be chances created by Williamson and Reddish, but neither of those two have shown any consistency as passers. Can they do that in this game to get Barrett some easy looks? Can Barrett find a way to be an efficient scorer against the best defense he'll face all season?

Beyond Barrett, how will Reddish perform in an expanded role? Can he avoid the sloppy turnovers that have plagued him this year? Can he become a more reliable scoring threat at all 3 levels and not just a streaky 3pt shooter? This is a golden opportunity for Reddish to break out of his shell a bit and fill the playmaking void that Jones left. Hopefully he can rise to the occasion. As with Barrett, Reddish certainly has the talent to do it.

4. Pace. As Kedsy has noted, we've sped up every team we've played this season. The question is, can we speed up UVa? UVa isn't going to crash the offensive glass too much, preferring to prevent transition opportunities on offense. They also score extremely efficiently, meaning fewer runout opportunities. And they just don't turn the ball over at all, which further limits transition chances. We are - like pretty much everyone - far less efficient in the half-court than we are in transition. And of course UVa is uber-efficient defensively in the half-court. So we need to create as many fast-break chances as possible, but not force them if they aren't there. It's going to be an interesting matchup from that perspective.

5. Foul trouble. Yes, the game will be played at a slower than usual pace. But we will be playing with virtually no buffer for foul trouble. We have 6 guys that Coach K trusts to put on the floor, and one other guy (O'Connell) that Coach K is learning to trust. But against an opponent as good as UVa, we can't afford Barrett, Williamson, or Reddish to be saddled with foul trouble. We can perhaps withstand one of Bolden/DeLaurier getting in foul trouble. But the three freshmen need to be ready to play 35+ minutes tomorrow.

6. 3pt shooting. Can White and O'Connell step up in expanded roles and hit some 3s? Obviously UVa is going to make life difficult for the freshmen. But if those guys can make shots, it changes the tenor of the game. Similarly, getting good shooting games from Barrett and Reddish would be a plus as well. UVa's defense does give up 3pt looks, though to this point in the season they've held teams to the worst 3pt% in the country this year, and have been top-30 nationally in that stat 4 of the past 5 years. One of the limitations of a slow tempo is that you make yourself subject to a higher volatility in result if anything outlier-ish happens (e.g., 3pt shooting is way outside the mean for either team; somebody forces/prevents a lot more turnovers, etc). If we can hit 3s at a high rate to make up for Monday's awful shooting, it can make life difficult for UVa.

All in all, I'll probably oh-so-slightly favor UVa in this one. But I would expect it to be close either way. Here's hoping that we'll get the win and maintain control of our regular season title destiny (we'd lose that control with a loss).

[CameronDuke]

Duke opens -3.5 vs Virginia.

Early money coming in on Duke's side from Vegas. Do they know something we don't know?

#PrayForTre

[hallcity]

I was talking to someone in the Iron Dukes’ office this morning. And she mentioned how much increased security presence there was around Cameron/campus today. I guess I’m not surprised, but thought it an interesting tidbit that I would share. Go Duke!!

I keep expecting Barack Obama to show up at a game. It probably won't be this game but it's going to happen eventually. He's too big a hoops fan not to show up at Cameron eventually.

[uh_no]

I keep expecting Barack Obama to show up at a game. It probably won't be this game but it's going to happen eventually. He's too big a hoops fan not to show up at Cameron eventually.

he's a carolina homer, though, isn't he? were he to, it would be for that, I'd think

[DarkstarWahoo]

I wonder if Obama still talks to Reggie Love.

[proelitedota]

Forget Obama, wouldn't it be great if current POTUS came to Cameron? We'll have 60 million viewers tune into the the game. The biggest ratings!

[rasputin]

Forget Obama, wouldn't it be great if current POTUS came to Cameron? We'll have 60 million viewers tune into the the game. The biggest ratings!

What would the crowd estimates be?

[Troublemaker]

Duke opens -3.5 vs Virginia.

Early money coming in on Duke's side from Vegas. Do they know something we don't know?

#PrayForTre

Technically, it's just one rogue online site that has a line up for the game so far. That site loves to put up lines before everyone else (they are awesome!), but generally when people say "Duke opens as..." they are referring to what the majority of oddsmakers will open Duke up as, which will certainly be lower than 3.5. Also, the early money is on UVA not Duke since the line has moved from 3.5 to 1.5 at that site. I would expect the majority of books to open Duke as a small favorite at this point.

As for why that would be, it's Duke playing in Cameron! No one should be surprised. How often has the AP #1 team been a home underdog? It's got to be extremely rare, and I would guess it has never happened to Duke when we were the #1 team.

[proelitedota]

What would the crowd estimates be?

80000 Duke students watching in Cameron itself.

[907bluedevils]

Dukes ability to clank shots is a big worry for me, especially with Virginia's d that limits penetration. Also, not giving up 3s to a 3 happy team is critical.

[CameronDuke]

Technically, it's just one rogue online site that has a line up for the game so far. That site loves to put up lines before everyone else (they are awesome!), but generally when people say "Duke opens as..." they are referring to what the majority of oddsmakers will open Duke up as, which will certainly be lower than 3.5. Also, the early money is on UVA not Duke since the line has moved from 3.5 to 1.5 at that site. I would expect the majority of books to open Duke as a small favorite at this point.

As for why that would be, it's Duke playing in Cameron! No one should be surprised. How often has the AP #1 team been a home underdog? It's got to be extremely rare, and I would guess it has never happened to Duke when we were the #1 team.

Most sites I'm seeing now have Duke -1.5 over Virginia.

I expect Duke to be favored over Virginia regardless tomorrow but if somehow it became common knowledge that Tre Jones is playing, I could see Duke closing -3 to -5 over Virginia.

[Reilly]

Forget Obama, wouldn't it be great if current POTUS came to Cameron? ...

Been there, done that (before president; in 2004): http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=147262&SPID=1845&SPSID=22724

[BLPOG]

Forget Obama, wouldn't it be great if current POTUS came to Cameron? We'll have 60 million viewers tune into the the game. The biggest ratings!

That would be a nightmare. You can be sure there would be people who would forget there's a basketball game on and try to be political, à la Thursday, January 31, 2008.

I was irate during that first half, but delighted during the second. ;)

[Pghdukie]

Been there, done that (before president; in 2004): http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&ATCLID=147262&SPID=1845&SPSID=22724

Trump was interviewed at halftime and raved about Loul Deng. He didnt no Deng's name - kept referencing #3 for Duke !

[wavedukefan70s]

That would be a nightmare. You can be sure there would be people who would forget there's a basketball game on and try to be political, à la Thursday, January 31, 2008.

I was irate during that first half, but delighted during the second. ;)

No no no .bill Clinton messed up me and my dad seating in 1994 .I still have a grudge against that man former president or not.no more I say.

[UVa1981]

Some more thoughts on the game. Aside from the obvious outside prayer that Jones plays and plays effectively, here are some things I'll be really interested in watching:

1. It will be very interesting to see how our "switch everything" defense works against the UVa offense. As has been noted by others, they run guys off screens religiously as they work to get a good look. That's a great strategy if teams aren't switching everything, and can still be a great strategy even if they are. But in terms of wearing down the opponent's legs, that approach will have a bit less juice against this year's team, as all but one guy in the rotation will be a part of the "switch everything" campaign. And even that one guy (Bolden) will switch on anyone not named Clark or Guy. What will be imperative is that our guys will need to do a LOT of talking, because UVa's ballhandlers are very adept at taking advantage of a lapse in defense. So we don't want to get caught losing a guy (or a Guy).

2. On offense, will Zion be able to unlock UVa's defense the way he did against Syracuse? Well, I should rephrase. He almost certainly will not go for 35 points on 20 FG attempts like he did against the Cuse. But can he remain an elite offensive force even against what will be an extremely congested lane? If he can still get relatively easy (for him) baskets, that changes the complexion of this matchup substantially.

3. How will Barrett and Reddish perform? Barrett has generally struggled to score efficiently against well-organized, experienced defenses so far. He has the talent for sure. But since he isn't a good shooter and not a great dribbler, he really needs to rely on his savvy off the dribble to be effective in the half court. Either that, or do his damage off-ball. But it will be harder to get half-court looks without Jones. There may be chances created by Williamson and Reddish, but neither of those two have shown any consistency as passers. Can they do that in this game to get Barrett some easy looks? Can Barrett find a way to be an efficient scorer against the best defense he'll face all season?

Beyond Barrett, how will Reddish perform in an expanded role? Can he avoid the sloppy turnovers that have plagued him this year? Can he become a more reliable scoring threat at all 3 levels and not just a streaky 3pt shooter? This is a golden opportunity for Reddish to break out of his shell a bit and fill the playmaking void that Jones left. Hopefully he can rise to the occasion. As with Barrett, Reddish certainly has the talent to do it.

4. Pace. As Kedsy has noted, we've sped up every team we've played this season. The question is, can we speed up UVa? UVa isn't going to crash the offensive glass too much, preferring to prevent transition opportunities on offense. They also score extremely efficiently, meaning fewer runout opportunities. And they just don't turn the ball over at all, which further limits transition chances. We are - like pretty much everyone - far less efficient in the half-court than we are in transition. And of course UVa is uber-efficient defensively in the half-court. So we need to create as many fast-break chances as possible, but not force them if they aren't there. It's going to be an interesting matchup from that perspective.

5. Foul trouble. Yes, the game will be played at a slower than usual pace. But we will be playing with virtually no buffer for foul trouble. We have 6 guys that Coach K trusts to put on the floor, and one other guy (O'Connell) that Coach K is learning to trust. But against an opponent as good as UVa, we can't afford Barrett, Williamson, or Reddish to be saddled with foul trouble. We can perhaps withstand one of Bolden/DeLaurier getting in foul trouble. But the three freshmen need to be ready to play 35+ minutes tomorrow.

6. 3pt shooting. Can White and O'Connell step up in expanded roles and hit some 3s? Obviously UVa is going to make life difficult for the freshmen. But if those guys can make shots, it changes the tenor of the game. Similarly, getting good shooting games from Barrett and Reddish would be a plus as well. UVa's defense does give up 3pt looks, though to this point in the season they've held teams to the worst 3pt% in the country this year, and have been top-30 nationally in that stat 4 of the past 5 years. One of the limitations of a slow tempo is that you make yourself subject to a higher volatility in result if anything outlier-ish happens (e.g., 3pt shooting is way outside the mean for either team; somebody forces/prevents a lot more turnovers, etc). If we can hit 3s at a high rate to make up for Monday's awful shooting, it can make life difficult for UVa.

All in all, I'll probably oh-so-slightly favor UVa in this one. But I would expect it to be close either way. Here's hoping that we'll get the win and maintain control of our regular season title destiny (we'd lose that control with a loss).

Some Hoo thoughts in response, numbered in response to CDu's:

1. Guy coming off screens is important, but the one that can be truly difficult is Jerome coming off the pin-down screen (this is set towards the bottom of the lane with Jerome coming across lane) because of all the permutations and combinations Jerome can pull out of it. If his defender tries to stay with him, he'll sometimes curl hard around the screener and look for something near the rim. If the defender tries to cut across the top of the screener, Jerome may well dive into the corner for the open three. And on and on. For some reason, Jerome is not nearly as effective off the flare screens (set at the top of the lane).

2. One of the big questions. I have no particular answer except that I think, at the start of the game, Williamson with see the post trap every time he gets the ball close to the basket. That could change if Williamson can pass out to an open 3-point shooter and the shooter can knock down the shot. But I think Duke has to prove both of those things before Williamson gets relieved of the post trap. And I do NOT dismiss the notion that Williamson will be able to shrug off the trap and go to the rim.

3. Dunno much about this part, though I will say that, contrary to some of my fellow Hoos, I do think that Barrett will get a heavy dose of Clark if Barrett plays point. At least at the beginning.

4. VTech isn't running as much as they have in the past but, even with 4 guards on the floor most of the game, they got 1 (true) fast break in our game. They did get other transition buckets, but we actually got one more than VTech. VTech does not have Duke's athletes (duh), so I would give it a run every time I could were I Duke. But not if I started getting sloppy.

5. Don't have any insight on this.

6. The thing I would look for is whether the 3 point look is contested or not. If it's contested, that's UVa's ultimate goal. If Duke knocks it down, a tip of the hat to you. But that's what UVa's defense is predicated on: reducing you to a contested 3. If it's not contested... Look out UVa.

7. (Yes, CDu has no 7, so this is surplusage.) The odd thing about playing Duke (and I guess being Duke) is that there are just so many unknowns and so many possibilities. That makes it hard to figure out who to favor. If I were forced, I'd say this: if Williamson can tear it up around the rim and Duke knocks down some 3s, edge Duke; if Duke can do only 1 of those 2 things, push; if Duke can do neither, edge UVa. So I'm wimping out. ;-)

[Pghdukie]

Per VegasInsider Duke is now -1.5.

[NSDukeFan]

80000 Duke students watching in Cameron itself.


What would the crowd estimates be?


Forget Obama, wouldn't it be great if current POTUS came to Cameron? We'll have 60 million viewers tune into the the game. The biggest ratings!

The crowd would definitely be bigger than if Obama was there.

[uh_no]

The crowd would definitely be bigger than if Obama was there.

Mostly because the concession stands would be forced to serve double quarter pounders and super-size fries.

[proelitedota]

Mostly because the concession stands would be forced to serve double quarter pounders and super-size fries.

That'll make a Duke fan out of Kennedy Meeks.

[jipops]

Trump was interviewed at halftime and raved about Loul Deng. He didnt no Deng's name - kept referencing #3 for Duke !

Reference #2

[indy1duke]

Some more thoughts on the game. Aside from the obvious outside prayer that Jones plays and plays effectively, here are some things I'll be really interested in watching:

1. It will be very interesting to see how our "switch everything" defense works against the UVa offense. As has been noted by others, they run guys off screens religiously as they work to get a good look. That's a great strategy if teams aren't switching everything, and can still be a great strategy even if they are. But in terms of wearing down the opponent's legs, that approach will have a bit less juice against this year's team, as all but one guy in the rotation will be a part of the "switch everything" campaign. And even that one guy (Bolden) will switch on anyone not named Clark or Guy. What will be imperative is that our guys will need to do a LOT of talking, because UVa's ballhandlers are very adept at taking advantage of a lapse in defense. So we don't want to get caught losing a guy (or a Guy).

2. On offense, will Zion be able to unlock UVa's defense the way he did against Syracuse? Well, I should rephrase. He almost certainly will not go for 35 points on 20 FG attempts like he did against the Cuse. But can he remain an elite offensive force even against what will be an extremely congested lane? If he can still get relatively easy (for him) baskets, that changes the complexion of this matchup substantially.

3. How will Barrett and Reddish perform? Barrett has generally struggled to score efficiently against well-organized, experienced defenses so far. He has the talent for sure. But since he isn't a good shooter and not a great dribbler, he really needs to rely on his savvy off the dribble to be effective in the half court. Either that, or do his damage off-ball. But it will be harder to get half-court looks without Jones. There may be chances created by Williamson and Reddish, but neither of those two have shown any consistency as passers. Can they do that in this game to get Barrett some easy looks? Can Barrett find a way to be an efficient scorer against the best defense he'll face all season?

Beyond Barrett, how will Reddish perform in an expanded role? Can he avoid the sloppy turnovers that have plagued him this year? Can he become a more reliable scoring threat at all 3 levels and not just a streaky 3pt shooter? This is a golden opportunity for Reddish to break out of his shell a bit and fill the playmaking void that Jones left. Hopefully he can rise to the occasion. As with Barrett, Reddish certainly has the talent to do it.

4. Pace. As Kedsy has noted, we've sped up every team we've played this season. The question is, can we speed up UVa? UVa isn't going to crash the offensive glass too much, preferring to prevent transition opportunities on offense. They also score extremely efficiently, meaning fewer runout opportunities. And they just don't turn the ball over at all, which further limits transition chances. We are - like pretty much everyone - far less efficient in the half-court than we are in transition. And of course UVa is uber-efficient defensively in the half-court. So we need to create as many fast-break chances as possible, but not force them if they aren't there. It's going to be an interesting matchup from that perspective.

5. Foul trouble. Yes, the game will be played at a slower than usual pace. But we will be playing with virtually no buffer for foul trouble. We have 6 guys that Coach K trusts to put on the floor, and one other guy (O'Connell) that Coach K is learning to trust. But against an opponent as good as UVa, we can't afford Barrett, Williamson, or Reddish to be saddled with foul trouble. We can perhaps withstand one of Bolden/DeLaurier getting in foul trouble. But the three freshmen need to be ready to play 35+ minutes tomorrow.

6. 3pt shooting. Can White and O'Connell step up in expanded roles and hit some 3s? Obviously UVa is going to make life difficult for the freshmen. But if those guys can make shots, it changes the tenor of the game. Similarly, getting good shooting games from Barrett and Reddish would be a plus as well. UVa's defense does give up 3pt looks, though to this point in the season they've held teams to the worst 3pt% in the country this year, and have been top-30 nationally in that stat 4 of the past 5 years. One of the limitations of a slow tempo is that you make yourself subject to a higher volatility in result if anything outlier-ish happens (e.g., 3pt shooting is way outside the mean for either team; somebody forces/prevents a lot more turnovers, etc). If we can hit 3s at a high rate to make up for Monday's awful shooting, it can make life difficult for UVa.

All in all, I'll probably oh-so-slightly favor UVa in this one. But I would expect it to be close either way. Here's hoping that we'll get the win and maintain control of our regular season title destiny (we'd lose that control with a loss).

I enjoy your thoughts on the big game. Of course a healthy Tre Jones makes a huge difference in our potential on both sides of the court. Let's assume that Tre doesn't play for the purpose of our discussion. If DeLaurier plays along with the three freshmen and Jack White we will be able to switch all positions and that negates much of the effectiveness of Bennett's Mover/Blocker offense. Of course UVa still has lots of firepower (Guy doesn't need much space to launch a three point shot). I assume they start with Salt, Diakite, Hunter, Jerome and Guy. I definitely agree with your communication point. I suspect that White will take Salt or Diakate and DeLaurier will take the other and Zion will take Hunter leaving Cam and RJ taking Jerome and Guy. I am guessing that RJ starts on Jerome and Cam on Guy. Of course with a switch everything concept and UVa setting lots of screens UVa's shooter could end up with another Duke defender. When Bolden comes in he will often be left guarding one of the UVa guards at the end of the shot clock. UVa will be shooting over lots of height. I doubt that UVa has played a team with as much defensive moxie as Duke supported by a bunch of Cameron Crazies. Duke will feel like an underdog even if they are slight favorites.

You raise a good question about Zion's effectiveness against the pack line defense. He will be double teamed as soon as he catches the ball inside 15 feet, however, I have never seen anyone more adept at handling a double team than Zion. The way he goes left and slips between defenders is amazing. Once he elevates how many UVa defenders can alter his shot? Diakate, maybe, Hunter, maybe (4 blocks for the season) but none of the others. They could take charges but that didn't go well for that Syracuse player last game. I would be very surprised if Zion goes for 35 on 20 shots just because the UVa defense is very good and the pack line is designed to take away drives to the basket. But I think he will have an excellent game.

I would characterize RJ as a streaky shooter and think he is excellent with the ball in his hands. He is not Kyrie, but then who is? He is likely to draw Jerome or Guy as his principal defender. They are going to have their hands full. Assuming Cam is back to full strength I think he is the wild card in the game. He will draw Guy or Jerome. He could have a big day like he did against Clemson or he could be turnover prone as he has shown too often. He is too big for Guy but Guy has to guard someone. The offensive problem for Duke is that Jack is in a slump and DeLaurier has not shown any range outside of three feet. This would be a good time for Jack to regain his stroke. He just didn't look confident on his stoke during the past two games. he has to keep shooting that corner shot if he is open or the pack line gains another inside obstacle to Duke drives to the basket.

All in all it should be an exciting competitive game that could come down to the wire. Now if we had a healthy Tre Jones I would feel confident that we win at home given the previous Monday loss and given the fact that UVa shot the three extremely well last game.

[CameronDuke]

Duke up to -3 over Virginia tonight in many spots I'm seeing.

ESPN is also giving Duke a 56.4% chance of defeating Virginia.

[Troublemaker]

Duke up to -3 over Virginia tonight in many spots I'm seeing.

ESPN is also giving Duke a 56.4% chance of defeating Virginia.

Yeah, sharps like me are on Duke. With 69% of all bets being on UVA (https://www.sportsinsights.com/ncaab/) (as of the time of this post), and yet the line is creeping up, that's classic reverse line movement indicating sharp action on Duke.

Also, with social media like twitter available, oddsmakers like the following guy will sometimes communicate with the bettors and just outright tell them that the sharps are on Duke.


Dave Mason‏ @DaveMasonBOL (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL) 17h17 hours ago (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL/status/1086380391416647680)
Virginia at Duke tomorrow. Blue Devils favored by 1.5.


Dave Mason‏ @DaveMasonBOL (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL) 16h16 hours ago (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL/status/1086388736282251264)
Spoke too soon. Virginia back up to 3-pt dogs after sharp coin on Duke -1.5 to -2.5.

[CameronDuke]

Yeah, sharps like me are on Duke. With 69% of all bets being on UVA (https://www.sportsinsights.com/ncaab/) (as of the time of this post), and yet the line is creeping up, that's classic reverse line movement indicating sharp action on Duke.

Also, with social media like twitter available, oddsmakers like the following guy will sometimes communicate with the bettors and just outright tell them that the sharps are on Duke.


Dave Mason‏ @DaveMasonBOL (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL) 17h17 hours ago (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL/status/1086380391416647680)
Virginia at Duke tomorrow. Blue Devils favored by 1.5.


Dave Mason‏ @DaveMasonBOL (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL) 16h16 hours ago (https://twitter.com/DaveMasonBOL/status/1086388736282251264)
Spoke too soon. Virginia back up to 3-pt dogs after sharp coin on Duke -1.5 to -2.5.


Yeah, you're exactly right. Duke is actually up to -3.5 in some spots now.

[CameronDuke]

Have tonight's officials been announced yet? Is TV Teddy gonna be in the house?

[jv001]

Have tonight's officials been announced yet? Is TV Teddy gonna be in the house?

Let us pray! GoDuke!

[szstark]

I enjoy your thoughts on the big game. Of course a healthy Tre Jones makes a huge difference in our potential on both sides of the court. Let's assume that Tre doesn't play for the purpose of our discussion. If DeLaurier plays along with the three freshmen and Jack White we will be able to switch all positions and that negates much of the effectiveness of Bennett's Mover/Blocker offense. Of course UVa still has lots of firepower (Guy doesn't need much space to launch a three point shot). I assume they start with Salt, Diakite, Hunter, Jerome and Guy. I definitely agree with your communication point. I suspect that White will take Salt or Diakate and DeLaurier will take the other and Zion will take Hunter leaving Cam and RJ taking Jerome and Guy. I am guessing that RJ starts on Jerome and Cam on Guy. Of course with a switch everything concept and UVa setting lots of screens UVa's shooter could end up with another Duke defender. When Bolden comes in he will often be left guarding one of the UVa guards at the end of the shot clock. UVa will be shooting over lots of height. I doubt that UVa has played a team with as much defensive moxie as Duke supported by a bunch of Cameron Crazies. Duke will feel like an underdog even if they are slight favorites.

You raise a good question about Zion's effectiveness against the pack line defense. He will be double teamed as soon as he catches the ball inside 15 feet, however, I have never seen anyone more adept at handling a double team than Zion. The way he goes left and slips between defenders is amazing. Once he elevates how many UVa defenders can alter his shot? Diakate, maybe, Hunter, maybe (4 blocks for the season) but none of the others. They could take charges but that didn't go well for that Syracuse player last game. I would be very surprised if Zion goes for 35 on 20 shots just because the UVa defense is very good and the pack line is designed to take away drives to the basket. But I think he will have an excellent game.

I would characterize RJ as a streaky shooter and think he is excellent with the ball in his hands. He is not Kyrie, but then who is? He is likely to draw Jerome or Guy as his principal defender. They are going to have their hands full. Assuming Cam is back to full strength I think he is the wild card in the game. He will draw Guy or Jerome. He could have a big day like he did against Clemson or he could be turnover prone as he has shown too often. He is too big for Guy but Guy has to guard someone. The offensive problem for Duke is that Jack is in a slump and DeLaurier has not shown any range outside of three feet. This would be a good time for Jack to regain his stroke. He just didn't look confident on his stoke during the past two games. he has to keep shooting that corner shot if he is open or the pack line gains another inside obstacle to Duke drives to the basket.

All in all it should be an exciting competitive game that could come down to the wire. Now if we had a healthy Tre Jones I would feel confident that we win at home given the previous Monday loss and given the fact that UVa shot the three extremely well last game.

You hit on a key point here - Zion goes to his left the vast majority of the time, especially on the spin move. As effective as he is inside the paint, he would be virtually impossible to stop if the defense couldn’t overplay his left.

[budwom]

You hit on a key point here - Zion goes to his left the vast majority of the time, especially on the spin move. As effective as he is inside the paint, he would be virtually impossible to stop if the defense couldn’t overplay his left.

That spin move has become predictable, I suspect UVA will be ready for it, not that that's the only weapon in Zion's arsenal. They're going to surround him like sportswriters at a buffet, forcing someone to hit some shots, any shots.

[jv001]

You hit on a key point here - Zion goes to his left the vast majority of the time, especially on the spin move. As effective as he is inside the paint, he would be virtually impossible to stop if the defense couldn’t overplay his left.

You are so right about Zion going to his left but what's ironic about that, is he can dribble and finish with his right hand pretty easily. I guess it's a comfort zone thing.
GoDuke!

[Ima Facultiwyfe]

Yeah, you're exactly right. Duke is actually up to -3.5 in some spots now.

With the numbers creeping up could it be somebody's gotten some inside info that Tre will play?
Love, Ima

[House G]

College Gameday starting

[CameronDuke]

With the numbers creeping up could it be somebody's gotten some inside info that Tre will play?
Love, Ima

That is the question of the day!

[Bob Green]

College Gameday starting

What's the deal with the banana suits? I've seen it several times but don't have a clue what it is about.

[Troublemaker]

Hopefully FT shooting doesn't bite us in the butt if we hold a lead late in the game. (Haven't seen that mentioned yet as a possibility :-)

Even though Tre's FT pct is low on a very small sample, he's probably one of our two best FT shooters along with Jack (and maybe Alex). Now, with Tre out, we have to hope we can get the ball to Jack and he can hopefully get fouled. Jack's not a ballhandler, and it'd better if we could just get the ball to our PG Tre in that situation.

[Edouble]

Duke 87 - UVA 63

Some of these Gameday signs are hilarious. I love the "Virginia is for Losers" and "Wa-Who?"

We usually do well at home coming off of a loss, and I like that we have the element of surprise. Gotta think the team is rallying tight with the adversity of Tre's injury.

Go Devils!

[Owen Meany]

With the numbers creeping up could it be somebody's gotten some inside info that Tre will play?
Love, Ima

I really hope Jones is 100% when he comes back. I fear that opposing teams are going to set a lot of screens, hoping to run Jones' shoulder into a hard pick. Jones would be very susceptible given the ball pressure he likes to apply. One unfortunate collision with Salt, or a similar player, could cause a lingering injury like the bruised ribs Duhon suffered his Senior year. I firmly believe it made more than a 2 point difference against UConn that year and cost Duke a national championship.

[CameronDuke]

Duke holding steady at -3.5 over Virginia tonight.

Can underdog Virginia shock the world and pull off the upset tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium?

:)

[uh_no]

What's the deal with the banana suits? I've seen it several times but don't have a clue what it is about.

it's about getting on TV.