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View Full Version : What teams would make you most anxious in a potential tourney matchup?



scottdude8
01-14-2019, 10:57 AM
This topic came to my mind after some conversations I've had in some other threads with people regarding a hypothetical Duke/Michigan matchup in the tourney... based on all the college basketball you've watched so far this year, which teams would you be most concerned about come March in a hypothetical matchup with Duke? What teams when it comes to Selection Sunday are you going to be crossing your fingers don't appear in our bracket? For me, given how special this Duke team is there are really only a handful:

Gonzaga: We've seen how good they are early in the season, and now that they're healthy they're only going to be better. Luckily they're all but guaranteed to end up out West, and if we continue at this pace it's unlikely we end up out there too.
Tennessee: Every time I watch them play I'm expecting them to come back down to earth, but they keep impressing me. Schofield and Williams are the type of duo that, if they get hot, can will their team to a victory. Plus, I think the recipe to beating Duke involves having a back-to-the-basket post scorer who can slow the game down and potentially make Zion play D in a place he's slightly less comfortable, and Williams is exactly that. Luckily they're playing like a No. 1 seed, so we may not see them until the Final Four.
Purdue: They're having a definite down year with all they lost, but Carson Edwards is good enough to pull an upset almost on his own. He's the type of player that could will his team to a Kemba Walker-like run if he gets hot come March, and as good as Tre would be defensively on him you never want to run into that.
Virginia: Duh. Wouldn't happen until the Final Four in all likelihood though.
Michigan: Yes, as I've discussed with various posters, Duke is ideally suited to break down Michigan's top-5 defense. That said, I think Michigan might also be ideally suited to attacking our top-5 defense, especially with the improvements in three point shooting from the Wolverines' two weakest shooters (7-foot-1 Jon Teske is now shooting 30% from 3 on the year, and PG Zavier Simpson is up to 33% despite having an objectively ugly shot)... right now all of Michigan's starters shoot at least 30% from 3, and they're sixth man shoots 45% from 3 and plays any position 3-through-5. If Michigan shoots 40-50% from deep they're extremely hard to beat considering how good their D is, even in a matchup against us.

Notable omissions from this list from my POV are Kansas (without Azubuike as a low-post presence I think we'd be able to play our "switch every screen" defense very well against them, particularly to shut down Vick) and Michigan State (yes, they're winning, but every time I watch them I come away unimpressed... I think that against a solid defensive team they're going to struggle to score since they're filled with a bunch of good, not great, players, none of which can really be called upon to carry the team when needed. Nick Ward would be a problem down low, but he's so prone to foul trouble and such a defensive liability when pulled outside that I think that'd be a wash. Plus, when you look deeper at their schedule they don't have a real impressive win thus far, which makes me think they're due to crumble back down to earth).

What other teams have people seen that might match up particularly well (or particularly poorly) against us?

Jeffrey
01-14-2019, 11:11 AM
If we are healthy, we can beat anyone. No fear here.

sagegrouse
01-14-2019, 11:14 AM
Well, my practice is to worry about the region. One never knows who will show up in the Final Four. If Duke is a #1 seed, then one of Tennessee, Gonzaga, Virginia and Michigan will not be. That's who I would worry about, if that team shows up in our. If we are #2 and the named teams are #1, then the toughness order would be Virginia (never happen in regional finals), Michigan, Gonzaga, and Tennessee.

WRT Purdue, I don't see a threat, although you apparently do, but there is always the prospect of an upset.

Wander
01-14-2019, 11:33 AM
Ha, nothing against you scottdude8, but I always laugh a little to myself when this topic comes up and people just list the top five teams.

Although we've already beaten them, I will throw out Auburn as a team outside the top 5 that I think matches up decently well against us. Their strength is offensive rebounding, which we're not great at dealing with, and their weakness is fouling, which we are not great at punishing with our bad free throw shooting.

But really, I agree with Jeffrey – I'm not scared of anyone with this team.

left_hook_lacey
01-14-2019, 11:35 AM
I'm not worried about any one team, I'm only concerned about potentially being placed in a murderers row type bracket. It's the only weakness I see right now. Fatigue, getting banged up/bruised up in back to back tough games taking a toll. And even then, we would have to get some really tough matchups for that to have an effect. Just not a lot to worry about with this team. It's a weird feeling.

scottdude8
01-14-2019, 11:37 AM
Ha, nothing against you scottdude8, but I always laugh a little to myself when this topic comes up and people just list the top five teams.

Although we've already beaten them, I will throw out Auburn as a team outside the top 5 that I think matches up decently well against us. Their strength is offensive rebounding, which we're not great at dealing with, and their weakness is fouling, which we are not great at punishing with our bad free throw shooting.

But really, I agree with Jeffrey – I'm not scared of anyone with this team.

Haha, that's a totally fair point and why I made sure to include Purdue in there as a potential upset minded team... and also why I mentioned why I'm not worried about top teams Kansas and MSU. But point very much taken.

OldPhiKap
01-14-2019, 11:38 AM
Not afraid, but -- Duke and UNC should never meet in a tournament game. Ever. And frankly, we shouldn't even be in the same pod.

scottdude8
01-14-2019, 11:39 AM
Well, my practice is to worry about the region. One never knows who will show up in the Final Four. If Duke is a #1 seed, then one of Tennessee, Gonzaga, Virginia and Michigan will not be. That's who I would worry about, if that team shows up in our. If we are #2 and the named teams are #1, then the toughness order would be Virginia (never happen in regional finals), Michigan, Gonzaga, and Tennessee.

WRT Purdue, I don't see a threat, although you apparently do, but there is always the prospect of an upset.

Let me clarify re: Purdue. I'm not sure I'd classify them as a "threat" per se, but they are the type of team that I wouldn't want to see in my bracket (which is the point I was trying to get at with this thread, although I think I did it in a non-elegant fashion!). If Purdue ends up in the 8-9 seed regime, which it's looking like they're tracking towards, there are a lot of other teams in that range I'd prefer to see in our bracket over Purdue given how Edwards can take over a game. So they're a team I'd be "anxious" about if they ended up in our bracket, at least relative to other teams.

Neals384
01-14-2019, 11:46 AM
I take this Duke team against anyone, unless it's another NCAAT road game. We've had enough of that nonsense in the last few years. A #1 seed should give us some protection against that.

kAzE
01-14-2019, 11:54 AM
Opponents that have skilled players with size and length are the most dangerous for this team. Zion and RJ are beasts scoring in the paint, but they have had trouble finishing against superior length. Both Zion and RJ love to initiate contact. Defenders who are thick enough to shrug off the contact or long enough to still block shots despite the contact are the guys who can stop us from scoring inside and getting to the foul line.

Clark and Hachimura were very effective denying shots against us in Maui, and Florida St.'s Kabengele and Koumadje did seem to bother Zion at the rim, and once Zion left the game for good, those guys were able to dunk on us almost at will. Thankfully, this is somewhat a rarity, since most of those type of guys don't stick around in college for long. Another thing is, we can beat really good defensive big men if they aren't as mobile by forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. I think Gonzaga happens to be a pretty bad match up for us, since those guys are long, but also get up and down the floor very quickly.

scottdude8
01-14-2019, 12:01 PM
Let me clarify what I was intended with this post/thread. I'm not necessarily asking what teams do we think can beat Duke come tourney time (I contributed to that misunderstanding with my initial post for sure!), but what teams, compared to teams of similar caliber and potential seeding, would you like to avoid. So something along the lines of this:
Round One: Obviously no one should scare us at all.
Round Two: We're on track to face a team in the 7-10 seed range. Of that caliber of team, from what I've seen thus far this year, Purdue is a team I'd like to avoid seeing in our bracket based on how fantastic Carsen Edwards is.
Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight: When it comes to teams that are more in the 2-6 seed range, I wouldn't want to see a matchup with Marquette for similar reasons as Purdue given how Markus Howard is playing. Obviously we're a superior team, but teams with a star guard that can light it up from deep are the types of teams that have historically pulled off major upsets. Nevada is another team that would be nice to avoid (and we're likely to since they'll probably end up out West) considering that, while they were definitely overrated after their hot start, they return a ton of talent from a deep tourney run last year.
Final Four: Of the "top-tier" teams, I think Tennessee would be the worst matchup for us given the way that Grant Williams plays. Ideally I'd like to see them on the other side of the bracket from us.

This was more along the lines of what I was curious about... not what teams should we be "scared" of, but what teams that we might not be thinking about should we hope don't end up in our bracket come Selection Sunday. I was thinking this could lead to some interesting insights from people who have watched games others of us haven't (for instance, I watch a ton of B1G basketball because of Michigan and can provide some context on those teams). Hopefully that seems like a more reasonable topic of discussion!

P.S. Mods, if we could change the title of this thread to something better matching my intention, or even put this explanation in the original post, that might be nice to get this discussion going in the right direction.

Rich
01-14-2019, 12:19 PM
Ha ha, the next one!

Looking at others' responses, I guess I'm just a nervous Nellie, but EVERY tourney game makes me anxious regardless of the opponent.

Truth&Justise
01-14-2019, 12:23 PM
Ha ha, the next one!

Looking at others' responses, I guess I'm just a nervous Nellie, but EVERY tourney game makes me anxious regardless of the opponent.

Agreed! I'm the same way.

But I'll add, while we have some sense of Duke's strengths and weaknesses as a team, those traits are not static. This young team will continue to grow and change over the course of ACC play. And other teams will surprise us and rise and fall as the season progresses. So it's too early for me to say for sure.

Come Selection Sunday we'll have a better sense of who we'd like to avoid. And then once the field is set, Rich is right: the most dangerous team is whomever we play against next.

GGLC
01-14-2019, 12:25 PM
I came here to mention Marquette for the same reasons that scottdude discusses. Howard is an insanely deadly high-volume three-point shooter; if he goes 10 for 13 like he's done, it's anyone's game. And I think there's a higher than average chance they end up in our bracket, given the potential for drama inherent in the matchup.

That said, I feel pretty good about Tre's ability to slow down star guards.

Troublemaker
01-14-2019, 12:36 PM
Not anyone that we would be projected to meet in the Final Four (i.e. fellow 1 seeds, hopefully). At that stage, you have to expect a tough game.

But teams that will be better than their seeds. This list will grow as we get closer to March but Nevada is going to be somebody's terrifying 4/5 seed.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-14-2019, 01:07 PM
Not anyone that we would be projected to meet in the Final Four (i.e. fellow 1 seeds, hopefully). At that stage, you have to expect a tough game.

But teams that will be better than their seeds. This list will grow as we get closer to March but Nevada is going to be somebody's terrifying 4/5 seed.

HEY.....I was just going to say this.....almost exactly. The anxiousness comes in the earlier rounds....second round is really dicey for a top seed......there are a lot of good 8-9 seeds......while some 6-7 seeds will get lucky and get a 12-13-14 type thing in the second round.

UrinalCake
01-14-2019, 01:15 PM
Any of the teams in the top 6 or 7 could beat us, but in terms of matchups I think low post scoring is something that could cause us trouble in the tournament, as the OP said. Fortunately there aren’t that many of them in the country and one of the best (Azubuike) is out. But after watching FSU throw over top of us repeatedly and destroy us on the offensive glass, I feel like if Zion gets into any foul trouble then we’re very vulnerable inside.

The other more generic concern is always a team that can get hot from three. And don’t overlook a team like Villanova pulling things together then springing an upset as a lower seed.

scottdude8
01-14-2019, 01:48 PM
Any of the teams in the top 6 or 7 could beat us, but in terms of matchups I think low post scoring is something that could cause us trouble in the tournament, as the OP said. Fortunately there aren’t that many of them in the country and one of the best (Azubuike) is out. But after watching FSU throw over top of us repeatedly and destroy us on the offensive glass, I feel like if Zion gets into any foul trouble then we’re very vulnerable inside.

The other more generic concern is always a team that can get hot from three. And don’t overlook a team like Villanova pulling things together then springing an upset as a lower seed.

Agree with you on both fronts: a team with a solid low-post presence (like Tennessee) is probably the worst "match-up" for us, and you never want to play a team with a potential hot three point shooter in March. Villanova is an interesting team of note... nothing about how they've played so far this year screams concern, but with some National Championship experience (not a ton given all their departures, but their key players played a role on last year's team) and Jay Wright at the helm that's a team that could cause trouble. That said, I think they're equally as likely to bow out very early based on how they've performed this year.

dukelifer
01-14-2019, 01:53 PM
This topic came to my mind after some conversations I've had in some other threads with people regarding a hypothetical Duke/Michigan matchup in the tourney... based on all the college basketball you've watched so far this year, which teams would you be most concerned about come March in a hypothetical matchup with Duke? What teams when it comes to Selection Sunday are you going to be crossing your fingers don't appear in our bracket? For me, given how special this Duke team is there are really only a handful:

Gonzaga: We've seen how good they are early in the season, and now that they're healthy they're only going to be better. Luckily they're all but guaranteed to end up out West, and if we continue at this pace it's unlikely we end up out there too.
Tennessee: Every time I watch them play I'm expecting them to come back down to earth, but they keep impressing me. Schofield and Williams are the type of duo that, if they get hot, can will their team to a victory. Plus, I think the recipe to beating Duke involves having a back-to-the-basket post scorer who can slow the game down and potentially make Zion play D in a place he's slightly less comfortable, and Williams is exactly that. Luckily they're playing like a No. 1 seed, so we may not see them until the Final Four.
Purdue: They're having a definite down year with all they lost, but Carson Edwards is good enough to pull an upset almost on his own. He's the type of player that could will his team to a Kemba Walker-like run if he gets hot come March, and as good as Tre would be defensively on him you never want to run into that.
Virginia: Duh. Wouldn't happen until the Final Four in all likelihood though.
Michigan: Yes, as I've discussed with various posters, Duke is ideally suited to break down Michigan's top-5 defense. That said, I think Michigan might also be ideally suited to attacking our top-5 defense, especially with the improvements in three point shooting from the Wolverines' two weakest shooters (7-foot-1 Jon Teske is now shooting 30% from 3 on the year, and PG Zavier Simpson is up to 33% despite having an objectively ugly shot)... right now all of Michigan's starters shoot at least 30% from 3, and they're sixth man shoots 45% from 3 and plays any position 3-through-5. If Michigan shoots 40-50% from deep they're extremely hard to beat considering how good their D is, even in a matchup against us.

Notable omissions from this list from my POV are Kansas (without Azubuike as a low-post presence I think we'd be able to play our "switch every screen" defense very well against them, particularly to shut down Vick) and Michigan State (yes, they're winning, but every time I watch them I come away unimpressed... I think that against a solid defensive team they're going to struggle to score since they're filled with a bunch of good, not great, players, none of which can really be called upon to carry the team when needed. Nick Ward would be a problem down low, but he's so prone to foul trouble and such a defensive liability when pulled outside that I think that'd be a wash. Plus, when you look deeper at their schedule they don't have a real impressive win thus far, which makes me think they're due to crumble back down to earth).

What other teams have people seen that might match up particularly well (or particularly poorly) against us?
I suspect based on what I have seen is that Duke can stack up against any team- they defend very well, have at least 3 guys capable of 20-30pts and have an excellent PG. So no team is scary per se- but Duke is not a FF lock. As usual, stuff happens in a single elimination tourney- you just need to see how it plays out. One bad shooting night - or one hot opponent- and that is all she wrote. But the loss will likely come because Duke is fundamentally flawed in some way.

Kedsy
01-14-2019, 02:00 PM
But the loss will likely come because Duke is fundamentally flawed in some way.

Huh?

Jeffrey
01-14-2019, 02:03 PM
Not afraid, but -- Duke and UNC should never meet in a tournament game. Ever. And frankly, we shouldn't even be in the same pod.

And frankly, we shouldn't even be on the same planet.

Devilwin
01-14-2019, 02:06 PM
Michigan State. They owe us big time..

Nugget
01-14-2019, 02:07 PM
I would agree it makes little sense to think about which other Top 10 teams/potential Elite 8 opponents we would be concerned about, since everyone in there is good and can beat you. But, I can think of a few teams I would rather avoid in the upset-range 2nd Round and Sweet 16:

2nd round: agree that it's the teams with hyper athleticism who could possibly take advantage of us inside if we have an off shooting night. I'd be very nervous to see Maryland or LSU as the 7-10 seeds in our region. They would both be live underdogs in 2nd rounds, with lots of athleticism plus very good PGs -- although with Tre's superb on-ball defense, we are less susceptible to being killed off the dribble by Cowan or Waters than in years past.

Sweet 16: In addition to the possibility of teams like Nevada and Marquette, which don't play much defense but could get so offensively hot they might shoot us out of the gym by hitting 15-20 threes, I would prefer to stay away from a rematch against Kentucky, especially if it were in Louisville where the South region is being played.

OZZIE4DUKE
01-14-2019, 02:19 PM
Nobody. http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif Bring 'em all on, one at a time all the way until the final game in April! http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

HereBeforeCoachK
01-14-2019, 02:21 PM
Michigan State. They owe us big time..

What is K against them....like 11-1 or 12-1? I'd hate to face that regression to the mean in a single elimination situation....

Edouble
01-14-2019, 03:49 PM
Virginia: Duh. Wouldn't happen until the Final Four in all likelihood though.


Virginia's system is not built for March. This is a team I would be happy to play in the tournament. Not sure why anyone would not want to play them. They have shown that they are paper tigers.

Troublemaker
01-14-2019, 04:14 PM
Virginia's system is not built for March. This is a team I would be happy to play in the tournament. Not sure why anyone would not want to play them. They have shown that they are paper tigers.

But if Duke ever had to play UVA in the NCAAT, it would very likely be in the Final Four, especially this season with both teams performing so well). That would mean their system IS built for March. (But then again, we go back to the previous point that Final Four games *should* be tough.)

Devilwin
01-14-2019, 04:16 PM
What is K against them...like 11-1 or 12-1? I'd hate to face that regression to the mean in a single elimination situation...
Something like that, yeah. That's why I don't want to see them.

sagegrouse
01-14-2019, 04:18 PM
Ha ha, the next one!

Looking at others' responses, I guess I'm just a nervous Nellie, but EVERY tourney game makes me anxious regardless of the opponent.

I remember sweating big-time during our 1986 game against #16 Mississippi Valley State. It took some Johnny Dawkins heroics to pull this one out.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-14-2019, 04:23 PM
I remember sweating big-time during our 1986 game against #16 Mississippi Valley State. It took some Johnny Dawkins heroics to pull this one out.

I'm sure the stress of the early second half and 7 point deficit has shortened the life expectancy for me.......and I will forever remember the name Lafayette Stribling.....

Acymetric
01-14-2019, 04:23 PM
I would be extremely concerned if we get matched up against the Monstars. Or any team with Air Bud on it. Other than that, bring 'em on.

NashvilleDevil
01-14-2019, 07:03 PM
This topic came to my mind after some conversations I've had in some other threads with people regarding a hypothetical Duke/Michigan matchup in the tourney... based on all the college basketball you've watched so far this year, which teams would you be most concerned about come March in a hypothetical matchup with Duke? What teams when it comes to Selection Sunday are you going to be crossing your fingers don't appear in our bracket? For me, given how special this Duke team is there are really only a handful:

Gonzaga: We've seen how good they are early in the season, and now that they're healthy they're only going to be better. Luckily they're all but guaranteed to end up out West, and if we continue at this pace it's unlikely we end up out there too.
Tennessee: Every time I watch them play I'm expecting them to come back down to earth, but they keep impressing me. Schofield and Williams are the type of duo that, if they get hot, can will their team to a victory. Plus, I think the recipe to beating Duke involves having a back-to-the-basket post scorer who can slow the game down and potentially make Zion play D in a place he's slightly less comfortable, and Williams is exactly that. Luckily they're playing like a No. 1 seed, so we may not see them until the Final Four.
Purdue: They're having a definite down year with all they lost, but Carson Edwards is good enough to pull an upset almost on his own. He's the type of player that could will his team to a Kemba Walker-like run if he gets hot come March, and as good as Tre would be defensively on him you never want to run into that.
Virginia: Duh. Wouldn't happen until the Final Four in all likelihood though.
Michigan: Yes, as I've discussed with various posters, Duke is ideally suited to break down Michigan's top-5 defense. That said, I think Michigan might also be ideally suited to attacking our top-5 defense, especially with the improvements in three point shooting from the Wolverines' two weakest shooters (7-foot-1 Jon Teske is now shooting 30% from 3 on the year, and PG Zavier Simpson is up to 33% despite having an objectively ugly shot)... right now all of Michigan's starters shoot at least 30% from 3, and they're sixth man shoots 45% from 3 and plays any position 3-through-5. If Michigan shoots 40-50% from deep they're extremely hard to beat considering how good their D is, even in a matchup against us.

Notable omissions from this list from my POV are Kansas (without Azubuike as a low-post presence I think we'd be able to play our "switch every screen" defense very well against them, particularly to shut down Vick) and Michigan State (yes, they're winning, but every time I watch them I come away unimpressed... I think that against a solid defensive team they're going to struggle to score since they're filled with a bunch of good, not great, players, none of which can really be called upon to carry the team when needed. Nick Ward would be a problem down low, but he's so prone to foul trouble and such a defensive liability when pulled outside that I think that'd be a wash. Plus, when you look deeper at their schedule they don't have a real impressive win thus far, which makes me think they're due to crumble back down to earth).

What other teams have people seen that might match up particularly well (or particularly poorly) against us?

Rick Barnes still coaches Tennessee right?

NYBri
01-14-2019, 09:12 PM
Any team if we don’t have Tre. 😒

Wander
01-21-2019, 10:33 AM
Let me clarify what I was intended with this post/thread. I'm not necessarily asking what teams do we think can beat Duke come tourney time (I contributed to that misunderstanding with my initial post for sure!), but what teams, compared to teams of similar caliber and potential seeding, would you like to avoid. So something along the lines of this:
Round One: Obviously no one should scare us at all.
Round Two: We're on track to face a team in the 7-10 seed range. Of that caliber of team, from what I've seen thus far this year, Purdue is a team I'd like to avoid seeing in our bracket based on how fantastic Carsen Edwards is.
Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight: When it comes to teams that are more in the 2-6 seed range, I wouldn't want to see a matchup with Marquette for similar reasons as Purdue given how Markus Howard is playing. Obviously we're a superior team, but teams with a star guard that can light it up from deep are the types of teams that have historically pulled off major upsets. Nevada is another team that would be nice to avoid (and we're likely to since they'll probably end up out West) considering that, while they were definitely overrated after their hot start, they return a ton of talent from a deep tourney run last year.
Final Four: Of the "top-tier" teams, I think Tennessee would be the worst matchup for us given the way that Grant Williams plays. Ideally I'd like to see them on the other side of the bracket from us.


I like this way of phrasing the question. If we're healthy, I'm not scared of anyone, but here are the teams I'd choose to avoid in each round if we could. This list is based off of current seeding projections I've seen, which may change.

First round: South Dakota State. They have a guy who's put up over 50 points in a game before. I was surprised to see them projected as a 16 seed.
Second round: Auburn. Like above, was surprised to see their projected seed as low as an 8. I think they match up decently with us with their offensive rebounding and our poor free throw shooting (even though we've already beaten them).
Sweet 16: Going to give a little bit of a cute answer, but there's only one team with a guy that could ruin Duke getting the first two picks in the NBA draft and that team is... Murray State. If they make it in, they are nearly guaranteed to upset some overrated power conference team in the first round. I'd rather play just a random middling power team like Ole Miss or Iowa State or whatever.
Elite 8: Seems like we're forming a top tier of 6 teams, so the goal here is to avoid the two 2 seeds that come from the group of 6... I'll go with Michigan State here.
Final Four/Championship: 16 seed jokes aside, I think UVA is going to be extra motivated this year in the tournament, and I don't really buy that their style is inherently bad for March. So I'll go with them.

scottdude8
01-21-2019, 11:17 AM
I like this way of phrasing the question. If we're healthy, I'm not scared of anyone, but here are the teams I'd choose to avoid in each round if we could. This list is based off of current seeding projections I've seen, which may change.

First round: South Dakota State. They have a guy who's put up over 50 points in a game before. I was surprised to see them projected as a 16 seed.
Second round: Auburn. Like above, was surprised to see their projected seed as low as an 8. I think they match up decently with us with their offensive rebounding and our poor free throw shooting (even though we've already beaten them).
Sweet 16: Going to give a little bit of a cute answer, but there's only one team with a guy that could ruin Duke getting the first two picks in the NBA draft and that team is... Murray State. If they make it in, they are nearly guaranteed to upset some overrated power conference team in the first round. I'd rather play just a random middling power team like Ole Miss or Iowa State or whatever.
Elite 8: Seems like we're forming a top tier of 6 teams, so the goal here is to avoid the two 2 seeds that come from the group of 6... I'll go with Michigan State here.
Final Four/Championship: 16 seed jokes aside, I think UVA is going to be extra motivated this year in the tournament, and I don't really buy that their style is inherently bad for March. So I'll go with them.

Love the Murray State answer. That's a team that, no matter what the seed, no one is going to want to see in their bracket. I'm also totally on board with the "group of 6" and wanting to avoid one of them in the Elite 8, but honestly amongst those 6 teams I think MSU is the one I'd most want to face. We match up very well against them... PG Cassius Winston drives their offense, and any team that has a dominant PG is a good matchup for us and a healthy Tre. Plus, Nick Ward is their only consistent scorer, and he gets his points just by being bigger than his typical matchup... if we throw a rotation of Marques, Javin, and Zion at him I don't think he's going to find much easy in the post. (Side note: against us Ward would be a HUGE defensive liability... just Google what Mo Wagner did to him last year. The memory of it still makes me smile.) Even with Langford healthy MSU isn't a team that can create offense very easily, and they don't have a true "go-to" guy in that respect. To keep up with Duke, IMHO, you need to have the ability to score in bunches when necessary, and I haven't seen that from MSU yet this year.

MChambers
01-21-2019, 11:42 AM
Well, my practice is to worry about the region. One never knows who will show up in the Final Four. If Duke is a #1 seed, then one of Tennessee, Gonzaga, Virginia and Michigan will not be. That's who I would worry about, if that team shows up in our. If we are #2 and the named teams are #1, then the toughness order would be Virginia (never happen in regional finals), Michigan, Gonzaga, and Tennessee.

WRT Purdue, I don't see a threat, although you apparently do, but there is always the prospect of an upset.

Michigan State is very quietly having an excellent season. If they take care of business against Michigan, they'll be in the running for a #1 seed, or be a very tough #2. They are batting some injuries, with a starter, Josh Langford, having been out for several games with an ankle issue, and their sixth man, Ahrens, having missed a couple of games with a back issue, but they're still winning. If they get healthy, they'll be a tough out. Yes, I know that K owns Izzo, but I'd still prefer not to see MSU until the Final Four.

mattman91
01-21-2019, 11:58 AM
We don't get stress or anxiety over other teams. We cause stress and anxiety.

scottdude8
01-21-2019, 12:00 PM
Michigan State is very quietly having an excellent season. If they take care of business against Michigan, they'll be in the running for a #1 seed, or be a very tough #2. They are batting some injuries, with a starter, Josh Langford, having been out for several games with an ankle issue, and their sixth man, Ahrens, having missed a couple of games with a back issue, but they're still winning. If they get healthy, they'll be a tough out. Yes, I know that K owns Izzo, but I'd still prefer not to see MSU until the Final Four.

Again, while it's definitely true that MSU has overcome some early season struggles and looks the part of a contender, after watching a lot of their games this year I'd strongly caution against overvaluing them. I've outlined why I think they're a good matchup for us above (actually, I think for similar reasons they're also going to have issues from a matchup perspective against Michigan in those matchups, considering Michigan has a fantastic post-defender in Jon Teske and the second-best defensive PG in the nation in Zavier Simpson). But if you look in detail at their resume it also seems to be artificially inflated. MSU lost their two toughest non-conference games against Louisville and Kansas. Their best wins are on the road against Nebraska (a solid team, but nowhere near the top-15 team the NET has them at currently... this ranking will definitely equilibrate down the road) and home against Purdue (another team who, IMHO, has an artificially high NET ranking, and this game was also much closer than you'd expect an MSU home game to be). 3 of their "Q1" victories fall within the lower-tier of said victories (as I mentioned in my NET thread, the team sheets now split each quadrant in half to further differentiate quality wins), meaning those victories are either borderline solid victories or against teams who are showing they aren't necessarily as high quality as people might have thought. Yes, injuries have hamstrung MSU significantly, and winning without players like Langford and Ahrens has been impressive... but I think people need to hold off on the MSU love until they face some true road tests in conference, like upcoming games against Indiana, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

MChambers
01-21-2019, 12:15 PM
Again, while it's definitely true that MSU has overcome some early season struggles and looks the part of a contender, after watching a lot of their games this year I'd strongly caution against overvaluing them. I've outlined why I think they're a good matchup for us above (actually, I think for similar reasons they're also going to have issues from a matchup perspective against Michigan in those matchups, considering Michigan has a fantastic post-defender in Jon Teske and the second-best defensive PG in the nation in Zavier Simpson). But if you look in detail at their resume it also seems to be artificially inflated. MSU lost their two toughest non-conference games against Louisville and Kansas. Their best wins are on the road against Nebraska (a solid team, but nowhere near the top-15 team the NET has them at currently... this ranking will definitely equilibrate down the road) and home against Purdue (another team who, IMHO, has an artificially high NET ranking, and this game was also much closer than you'd expect an MSU home game to be). 3 of their "Q1" victories fall within the lower-tier of said victories (as I mentioned in my NET thread, the team sheets now split each quadrant in half to further differentiate quality wins), meaning those victories are either borderline solid victories or against teams who are showing they aren't necessarily as high quality as people might have thought. Yes, injuries have hamstrung MSU significantly, and winning without players like Langford and Ahrens has been impressive... but I think people need to hold off on the MSU love until they face some true road tests in conference, like upcoming games against Indiana, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

I generally agree with your substantive analysis, but I wouldn't look to NET for substance. I'd much rather look at Pomeroy and T-Rank, both of whom has MSU at #3, despite the injury problem. And yes, MSU lost to Louisville and Kansas, but McQuaid was out against Louisville and Winston got in foul trouble, so MSU had to use a freshman PG who just isn't ready yet. And Kansas still had Azubuike, who made them a much better team.

As to matchups, I agree that Ward wouldn't be a big problem for Duke and that Duke should be able to contain Winston. And MSU still has turnover problems. Still, MSU is tough. We'll know more after they've played Michigan twice.

sagegrouse
01-21-2019, 12:18 PM
I like this way of phrasing the question. If we're healthy, I'm not scared of anyone, but here are the teams I'd choose to avoid in each round if we could. This list is based off of current seeding projections I've seen, which may change.

First round: South Dakota State. They have a guy who's put up over 50 points in a game before. I was surprised to see them projected as a 16 seed.
Second round: Auburn. Like above, was surprised to see their projected seed as low as an 8. I think they match up decently with us with their offensive rebounding and our poor free throw shooting (even though we've already beaten them).
Sweet 16: Going to give a little bit of a cute answer, but there's only one team with a guy that could ruin Duke getting the first two picks in the NBA draft and that team is... Murray State. If they make it in, they are nearly guaranteed to upset some overrated power conference team in the first round. I'd rather play just a random middling power team like Ole Miss or Iowa State or whatever.
Elite 8: Seems like we're forming a top tier of 6 teams, so the goal here is to avoid the two 2 seeds that come from the group of 6... I'll go with Michigan State here.
Final Four/Championship: 16 seed jokes aside, I think UVA is going to be extra motivated this year in the tournament, and I don't really buy that their style is inherently bad for March. So I'll go with them.

Good answers. I, for one, don't want to play an ACC team in the NCAA's. I'd rather play teams who have not played Duke this year. And, I expect we will have already played either Virginia or UNC three times -- maybe both.

scottdude8
01-21-2019, 12:28 PM
I generally agree with your substantive analysis, but I wouldn't look to NET for substance. I'd much rather look at Pomeroy and T-Rank, both of whom has MSU at #3, despite the injury problem. And yes, MSU lost to Louisville and Kansas, but McQuaid was out against Louisville and Winston got in foul trouble, so MSU had to use a freshman PG who just isn't ready yet. And Kansas still had Azubuike, who made them a much better team.

As to matchups, I agree that Ward wouldn't be a big problem for Duke and that Duke should be able to contain Winston. And MSU still has turnover problems. Still, MSU is tough. We'll know more after they've played Michigan twice.

Fair enough with regards to the NET, I was just using that as the best available tool... when the "talking heads" point to how well MSU is playing and the "quality wins" they are having it's implied (at least to me) that something along those lines is what justifies calling something a "quality win", which is why I attempted to deconstruct that notion a bit.

wsb3
01-21-2019, 01:19 PM
Ha ha, the next one!

Looking at others' responses, I guess I'm just a nervous Nellie, but EVERY tourney game makes me anxious regardless of the opponent.

Good. I was scrolling through in fear that I was alone.

And any team filled with Seniors makes me doubly nervous. Uh Mercer....

HereBeforeCoachK
01-21-2019, 01:37 PM
If we're a number one seed, any 8 or 9 seed in the second round. To me that's always been the nervous round....8s and 9s are generally power conference teams who are used to playing some elite competition, and beating them from time to time. So a top ranked team, carrying the weight of expectations, ends up playing much better teams than whoever benefits from the usual 3-14 or 4-13 or 5-12 upsets....

The 1 seeds simply cannot benefit from that....(though last year an 8-9 team did....)

scottdude8
01-22-2019, 12:44 PM
I think I need to stop talking down about MSU, because it seems like they're reading my posts and taking it as bulletin board material the way the keep pulling out wins, haha. Now for the reverse jinx... MSU isn't going to lose a game until they play Michigan! It'll be the game of the century in the B1G! Haha.

Indoor66
01-22-2019, 12:54 PM
I think I need to stop talking down about MSU, because it seems like they're reading my posts and taking it as bulletin board material the way the keep pulling out wins, haha. Now for the reverse jinx... MSU isn't going to lose a game until they play Michigan! It'll be the game of the century in the B1G! Haha.

I doubt that you are that important. 😂

scottdude8
01-22-2019, 01:03 PM
I doubt that you are that important. 😂

I don't know, I'm pretty sure Tom Izzo must read my stuff. I've made my Sparty hate (https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/hate-letter-sparty) pretty clear... hahaha.

Dukehk
01-22-2019, 01:15 PM
If we get the number one seed overall, then it should be a much easier path to the final four. As long as the committee don’t pull some wierd stuff!

Not worried about any team out there except maybe Gonzaga. They are hella deep and matchup well against us. But I’m sure if we meet them again in the championship game, we will be extra motivated to get revenge.

Rich
01-22-2019, 06:13 PM
If we get the number one seed overall, then it should be a much easier path to the final four. As long as the committee don’t pull some wierd stuff!

Not worried about any team out there except maybe Gonzaga. They are hella deep and matchup well against us. But I’m sure if we meet them again in the championship game, we will be extra motivated to get revenge.

Hate to state the obvious, but if you need revenge as a motivating factor for a championship game than something’s not right.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-22-2019, 06:35 PM
Hate to state the obvious, but if you need revenge as a motivating factor for a championship game than something’s not right.

If I may.....it's got nothing to do with "need" as far as motivation goes.....but you never know when there's a little "edge" related to something that might've been said in Maui etc.

Do teams need extra motivation for a title game? Absolutely not. Does a little extra help? Hey, ask the Patriots about this weekend. Ask the Eagles about last year's Super Bowl.

proelitedota
01-22-2019, 07:11 PM
Kentucky. Because they'll be much better than in November and would be itching for payback.

No other team worries me specifically.

wavedukefan70s
01-22-2019, 08:48 PM
Kentucky. Because they'll be much better than in November and would be itching for payback.

No other team worries me specifically.

Beat me to it .do not wish to see them again.

Troublemaker
02-12-2019, 08:41 PM
Not anyone that we would be projected to meet in the Final Four (i.e. fellow 1 seeds, hopefully). At that stage, you have to expect a tough game.

But teams that will be better than their seeds. This list will grow as we get closer to March but Nevada is going to be somebody's terrifying 4/5 seed.

LSU as a 4/5 seed. Just a very talented, very athletic team.

I notice Nugget already mentioned them much earlier in the thread.


I would agree it makes little sense to think about which other Top 10 teams/potential Elite 8 opponents we would be concerned about, since everyone in there is good and can beat you. But, I can think of a few teams I would rather avoid in the upset-range 2nd Round and Sweet 16:

2nd round: agree that it's the teams with hyper athleticism who could possibly take advantage of us inside if we have an off shooting night. I'd be very nervous to see Maryland or LSU as the 7-10 seeds in our region. They would both be live underdogs in 2nd rounds, with lots of athleticism plus very good PGs -- although with Tre's superb on-ball defense, we are less susceptible to being killed off the dribble by Cowan or Waters than in years past.

Sweet 16: In addition to the possibility of teams like Nevada and Marquette, which don't play much defense but could get so offensively hot they might shoot us out of the gym by hitting 15-20 threes, I would prefer to stay away from a rematch against Kentucky, especially if it were in Louisville where the South region is being played.

robed deity
02-12-2019, 08:44 PM
LSU as a 4/5 seed. Just a very talented, very athletic team.

I notice Nugget already mentioned them much earlier in the thread.

After watching a few minutes of this game, came here to post exactly this.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-12-2019, 08:52 PM
After watching a few minutes of this game, came here to post exactly this.

Vitale predicted tonight they'd beat Kentucky....or at least that LSU would give UK serious trouble.

53n206
02-12-2019, 10:09 PM
Louisville!!!

WakeDevil
02-12-2019, 10:28 PM
The way this crowd is playing tonight, a sixteen seed. Maybe even the Notre Dame women.

Owen Meany
02-12-2019, 10:32 PM
LSU also has a PG who really wanted to come to Duke. Duke made initial contact and then for some reason (possibly his father's involvement) just dropped contact. It seems that similar players have used that as motivation to burn Duke in the past (Battle comes to mind this year).

dukelifer
02-12-2019, 10:47 PM
LSU also has a PG who really wanted to come to Duke. Duke made initial contact and then for some reason (possibly his father's involvement) just dropped contact. It seems that similar players have used that as motivation to burn Duke in the past (Battle comes to mind this year).

Louisville?

proelitedota
02-12-2019, 11:21 PM
Not Louisville anymore. They'd have to be shook.

HereBeforeCoachK
02-12-2019, 11:49 PM
LSU also has a PG who really wanted to come to Duke. Duke made initial contact and then for some reason (possibly his father's involvement) just dropped contact. It seems that similar players have used that as motivation to burn Duke in the past (Battle comes to mind this year).

yes, including the year LSU beat Duke in the NCAAT......