PDA

View Full Version : At What Point Should Coach K Start Jack Over Cam?



DukeTrinity11
01-09-2019, 11:22 AM
I don't know if this is a controversial take but it's no secret that Cam has been in a serious funk since Maui. He's simply unable to drive to the hoop without getting stripped, is a foul machine and his shooting mechanics seem to have regressed.

Jack White, on the other hand, is a rebounding machine whose defensive instincts are 2nd to only maybe Tre on the team. He's also clearly the best spot up 3 point shooter on the team and his motor simply far surpasses Cam on both ends of the floor.

If I recall correctly, K brought Ingram off the bench for a few games in the 2015-2016 season. Any chance we see a repeat of that with Cam? I'm thinking it might be good for him to come off the bench for some time and regain his confidence while getting more usage on the 2nd unit. This might light a fire under him.

I truly believe that a starter spot, minutes and playing time should be earned and not given based on your RSCI ranking and NBA potential.

Should K institute this change with the best interests of the team in mind? I'm interested in hearing all your thoughts on this.

Fish80
01-09-2019, 11:28 AM
Cam has struggled at times. He’s also had some brilliant moments. Key threes. Steals. He’s running his own race, and he will be consistently great one day soon.

budwom
01-09-2019, 11:30 AM
Yeah, Jacques is sort of an ideal sixth man spark fellow, he'll get his minutes no matter what. Gotta stick with Cam so progress can be made.

Stray Gator
01-09-2019, 11:31 AM
I don't know if this is a controversial take but it's no secret that Cam has been in a serious funk since Maui. He's simply unable to drive to the hoop without getting stripped, is a foul machine and his shooting mechanics seem to have regressed.

Jack White, on the other hand, is a rebounding machine whose defensive instincts are 2nd to only maybe Tre on the team. He's also clearly the best spot up 3 point shooter on the team and his motor simply far surpasses Cam on both ends of the floor.

If I recall correctly, K brought Ingram off the bench for a few games in the 2015-2016 season. Any chance we see a repeat of that with Cam? I'm thinking it might be good for him to come off the bench for some time and regain his confidence while getting more usage on the 2nd unit. This might light a fire under him.

I truly believe that a starter spot, minutes and playing time should be earned and not given based on your RSCI ranking and NBA potential.

Should K institute this change with the best interests of the team in mind? I'm interested in hearing all your thoughts on this.

My thoughts are that Coach K knows these players better than any of us, and has proven over time that (a) he has a very fine sense of how best to motivate each individual; and (b) his player personnel decisions are consistently made with the best interests of the team in mind, not based on recruit rankings or pro potential.

DukeTrinity11
01-09-2019, 11:39 AM
Cam has struggled at times. He’s also had some brilliant moments. Key threes. Steals. He’s running his own race, and he will be consistently great one day soon.

I think this is putting it mildly though. Cam came into Duke with a HS ranking/repertoire that would suggest he should be an Ingram or Tatum level player and we've seen no indication that he can ever approach that level while in college.

I have no doubt Cam will improve tremendously in the coming years but I'm not sure its in the team's best interest in its pursuit of a national championship to keep starting him over Jack White, who up to this point has been a better basketball player.

He definitely has the physical tools to be great; I just hope we see it while he's at Duke.

tbyers11
01-09-2019, 11:43 AM
Yeah, Jacques is sort of an ideal sixth man spark fellow, he'll get his minutes no matter what. Gotta stick with Cam so progress can be made.

I'm not typically a member of the Duke Player Name Spelling Police, but I thought Jack was an Aussie not a Frenchman :confused:

Perhaps residing in close proximity to the French part of Canada has affected your spelling? :D

To your actual point, I agree that I think Jack as 6th man and Cam in the starting lineup is still the way to go. I think Cam as a starter is still the best way to go for long-term growth of this team.

Jeffrey
01-09-2019, 11:43 AM
My thoughts are that Coach K knows these players better than any of us....

Yep, I'm staying with my mostly late 60's and early 70's music library.

Truth&Justise
01-09-2019, 11:44 AM
This feels like a pretty academic debate to have while we are continually winning games by 20+. Are you arguing we'd be winning by 30+ if Jack White was starting instead of Reddish? Is that a change we'd need to make?

As it stands, I think White functions pretty well as a sixth man, and I think continuing to start Reddish is our best plan for his long-term growth this season--meaning it gives us the best shot at a championship by the end of the season.

yancem
01-09-2019, 11:47 AM
My thoughts are that Coach K knows these players better than any of us, and has proven over time that (a) he has a very fine sense of how best to motivate each individual; and (b) his player personnel decisions are consistently made with the best interests of the team in mind, not based on recruit rankings or pro potential.

I also think that there is a difference between the Ingram and Reddish situations. Ingram was struggling with effort and letting his offense effect his defense. Reddish for all of his shooting and turnover issues is still playing great defense (although fouling at too high of a rate). I think Reddish is playing hard, he just need to adjust to the pace and physicality of the game. I would be worried that sitting on the bench might make him regress even further.

Another difference is that this team is gelling and winning where Ingram’s season was struggling a little when he was benched.

Jeffrey
01-09-2019, 11:48 AM
My recommendation, focus on MPG. Jack will get a lot of PT playing like he did last night!

bbosbbos
01-09-2019, 11:50 AM
Should K institute this change with the best interests of the team in mind?

K knows his team better than any of us. Please remember this.

scottdude8
01-09-2019, 11:56 AM
At this point I see no reason to make a change to the starting lineup unless K sees it as a necessary/useful motivational tool for Cam. There are a few main reasons for this:

All indications are Jack is perfectly content in his sixth man role and doesn't feel the "need" to start. Plus, his game is pretty well suited to coming off the bench anyways.
K has shown that, even with Cam as the nominal "starter" and Jack as the nominal "sixth man", he has no problem playing Jack in the key moments or having him play "starters minutes" in place of Cam.
Given points 1 and 2, at the moment the only real difference in starting Jack over Cam would be an aesthetic one... it doesn't matter all that much who plays the first 3-4 minutes of the game considering K is very comfortable putting Jack in early and playing him for an extended period.

With that said, it is a definite possibility that we see this happen if Cam continues to struggle, especially if those struggles are carried over in a way we may not see into a practice or off-court setting. I'm not speculating that this is the case (actually from everything I can see it appears Cam and this tight-knit group are doing a good job of making sure it isn't the case), but there's nothing ruling out that it might happen.

As an illustrative side note, this reminds me of one of the most interesting experiences I had writing for The Chronicle, which was covering the lone game that Austin Rivers didn't start while at Duke. Despite not starting Austin still came off the bench and played around 30 minutes in a victory against Wake. Interviewing him in the locker room afterwards I expected Austin to say something along the lines of "I needed that message from K to pick up my effort level, and it was received... I'm going to earn my starting job back" or something like that. Instead, Austin said (and I'm paraphrasing from memory here) something along the lines of "I understand what Coach was trying to do, but I'm a starter, and I've always been a starter at every level, and I know I'm going to start again". It was by far the oddest locker-room interview I was ever a possible, and definitely revealed Austin's ego. By the next game, Austin was back in the starting lineup and many of the issues that sent him to the bench (specifically his tendency to start playing a lot of "hero-ball") were largely ignored.

Now, I am in no way saying that the situation I outlined above it applicable to Cam... as I mentioned, from all accounts Cam and this team carry themselves in a way antithetical to Austin (also, I'm in no way intending to bad mouth Austin... he just carried himself in a different way then many other players. Not better or worse necessarily, but definitely different.). But I do think this example is a useful one in this context because it shows a simple "benching" doesn't necessarily carry the weight it might have in the past, and could potentially be counterproductive depending on the personalities involved. All this is to say I think the more likely scenario than Jack starting over Cam (if Cam continues his struggles) is something more along the lines of Jack starting to play 30 minutes a night off the bench, with Cam's minutes dipping in concert.

jimsumner
01-09-2019, 12:02 PM
Should K institute this change with the best interests of the team in mind? I'm interested in hearing all your thoughts on this.

Under what other circumstances would you see K making a change of this nature?

COYS
01-09-2019, 12:06 PM
My recommendation, focus on MPG. Jack will get a lot of PT playing like he did last night!

I think this is a more salient point. As it stands, Jack is getting more minutes than Cam. The starting lineup is significant to fans and probably to the psyche of the players. However, in terms of on-court impact, Jack is on the floor more than Cam right now.

However, I've said it before and I'll say it again, Cam's defense is very, very good. That's worth keeping him on the court, alone. I think if his foul-rate were to decrease, Coach K would play him more minutes even without improvement on offense. Cam has not lived up to the hype on offense, but he's surpassed expectations on defense (to be fair, the entire team has) and he works really hard on that end.

I don't want this to sound like I'm trying to knock Jack because I'm not. I think he's the biggest and best surprise for Duke this season. His rebounding is sensational. He's not as versatile as Cam on defense, but he's capable when switched onto a smaller defender and is strong enough/athletic enough to hold his own in the post against bigger players. And while he is still very limited on offense, he knows his limitations and sticks to shooting open threes and wide open dunks/layups. In fact, he's only taken 14 total 2-point shots all season and has taken zero jumpers inside the arc. He is maximizing his skills in about the best possible way for a low-usage player.

curtis325
01-09-2019, 12:11 PM
I don't know if this is a controversial take but it's no secret that Cam has been in a serious funk since Maui. He's simply unable to drive to the hoop without getting stripped, is a foul machine and his shooting mechanics seem to have regressed.

Jack White, on the other hand, is a rebounding machine whose defensive instincts are 2nd to only maybe Tre on the team. He's also clearly the best spot up 3 point shooter on the team and his motor simply far surpasses Cam on both ends of the floor.

If I recall correctly, K brought Ingram off the bench for a few games in the 2015-2016 season. Any chance we see a repeat of that with Cam? I'm thinking it might be good for him to come off the bench for some time and regain his confidence while getting more usage on the 2nd unit. This might light a fire under him.

I truly believe that a starter spot, minutes and playing time should be earned and not given based on your RSCI ranking and NBA potential.

Should K institute this change with the best interests of the team in mind? I'm interested in hearing all your thoughts on this.


I am absolutely sure that Cam has earned his starter spot because he has been starting (I can't discount the possibilty that this may change). Coach K does not start undeserving players and a lot of his decisions are based on what he sees in practices. He sees something in Cam that has not yet totally translated to the games, but I'm confident (wishful thinking, maybe) that eventually things will click.

Furniture
01-09-2019, 12:29 PM
K knows his team better than any of us. Please remember this.

I agree and you have to think that what we are seeing is not what K is seeing in practice. While it’s a bit frustrating to see the turnovers and misses I have faith that K knows what he is doing.
I also think his teammates know how good he is and are really pulling for him too. You could see that after some of the shots he made and missed last night with the way the rest of the team were making a point to encourage him.

ChillinDuke
01-09-2019, 12:30 PM
I am absolutely sure that Cam has earned his starter spot because he has been starting (I can't discount the possibilty that this may change). Coach K does not start undeserving players and a lot of his decisions are based on what he sees in practices. He sees something in Cam that has not yet totally translated to the games, but I'm confident (wishful thinking, maybe) that eventually things will click.

My guess is what Coach K sees in Cam is someone struggling, someone frustrated that he's struggling, someone that is working tirelessly to execute on the coaching he's being given, and someone that needs to start to show the support of his coach that he is doing everything right.

I think the fact that Jack is playing more minutes than Cam is the telling sign that the starting nod is more support and confidence building than performance based - insofar as my definition of performance is on-court and not including "attitude" or "work ethic".

If Cam clicks, I don't expect Jack White to play more minutes than him. Perhaps not by a vast amount, since Jack has been largely great this year, all things considered. But that's my expectation nonetheless.

Said differently, I think Coach is fully aware that Jack's on-court performance thus far this season is superior to Cam's. And Coach is also fully aware that Cam Reddish has a ceiling that has not been anywhere close to achieved. And thus my conclusion is that Coach is managing the situation as best he believes to grow Cam into his untapped potential while not sacrificing losses.

- Chillin

uh_no
01-09-2019, 12:33 PM
I truly believe that a starter spot, minutes and playing time should be earned and not given based on your RSCI ranking and NBA potential.

Should K institute this change with the best interests of the team in mind? I'm interested in hearing all your thoughts on this.

"Should K institute this change with the best interests of the team in mind?" is begging the question. The insinuation that K puts weight on RSCI for PT decisions shows a gross misunderstanding of K's values.

K's goal is to put the best team on the floor in march/april. Winning games along the way is a at least mildly secondary. We are a better team with a top notch cam on the floor than not, if that means he needs to get some minutes now to get him there? Then so be it. We have that luxury winning by a gazillion.

So long as Cam is busting his butt in practice, and playing strong defense, which he seems be doing, I have no problem with him being on the floor.

UrinalCake
01-09-2019, 12:33 PM
I understand the reasoning that Jack makes a great 6th man because of his versatility. But here are the reasons why starting him would make sense:

- We've made a habit of starting off games slow. Other than Texas Tech, when we started on an 8-0 run, it feels like we begin every game missing our first 8 shots and letting the overmatched teams hang around for 15-20 minutes. I have to wonder if it would help to have Jack's energy on the floor from the very tip, rather than waiting until the players have settled in.

- Cam has also made it a habit of picking up two fouls in the first half, which then throws off his game. Coming off the bench would remove some of that pressure.

- As we've discussed ad nauseum, a lot of Cam's struggles seem to come from adjusting to playing with other scorers around him. So instead of starting three scorers, why not start two of them and let the third come in off the bench? Let him come in for RJ or Zion after the first TV timeout and then he'll have more freedom to have the ball in his hands.

flyingdutchdevil
01-09-2019, 12:37 PM
I understand the reasoning that Jack makes a great 6th man because of his versatility. But here are the reasons why starting him would make sense:

- We've made a habit of starting off games slow. Other than Texas Tech, when we started on an 8-0 run, it feels like we begin every game missing our first 8 shots and letting the overmatched teams hang around for 15-20 minutes. I have to wonder if it would help to have Jack's energy on the floor from the very tip, rather than waiting until the players have settled in.

- Cam has also made it a habit of picking up two fouls in the first half, which then throws off his game. Coming off the bench would remove some of that pressure.

- As we've discussed ad nauseum, a lot of Cam's struggles seem to come from adjusting to playing with other scorers around him. So instead of starting three scorers, why not start two of them and let the third come in off the bench? Let him come in for RJ or Zion after the first TV timeout and then he'll have more freedom to have the ball in his hands.

Really? If Cam gets stripped driving to the hoop when both Zion AND RJ are on the floor, what makes you think he'll be more effective when they aren't and the defensive attention is solely on Cam?

I like Cam starting. Agreed that Duke starts slow and Cam is foul prone, but taking him out may easily:

-Destroy his confidence
-Prevent Cam from working on fouling less
-Put more pressure on Zion and RJ to put up points that may lead to more offensive fouls

It's a trade-off and not clear-cut.

mike88
01-09-2019, 12:40 PM
The team seems to respond well to Jack coming off the bench. Given his versatility, he can sub at the 3-5 spots, which allows Coach K to respond to the flow of the game and the opponent's particular line-up. I wonder if the question is whether AOC should start over Cam, and I think the answer to that is currently "no"- both because it is better for Cam to work out some of his confidence issues in the game, and because AOC has not played that well in his limited minutes. But if AOC were to improve his defense and knock down threes like he can at his best, I think it would be a reasonable consideration (assuming Cam stays in a funk).

CDu
01-09-2019, 12:41 PM
I understand the reasoning that Jack makes a great 6th man because of his versatility. But here are the reasons why starting him would make sense:

- We've made a habit of starting off games slow. Other than Texas Tech, when we started on an 8-0 run, it feels like we begin every game missing our first 8 shots and letting the overmatched teams hang around for 15-20 minutes. I have to wonder if it would help to have Jack's energy on the floor from the very tip, rather than waiting until the players have settled in.

- Cam has also made it a habit of picking up two fouls in the first half, which then throws off his game. Coming off the bench would remove some of that pressure.

- As we've discussed ad nauseum, a lot of Cam's struggles seem to come from adjusting to playing with other scorers around him. So instead of starting three scorers, why not start two of them and let the third come in off the bench? Let him come in for RJ or Zion after the first TV timeout and then he'll have more freedom to have the ball in his hands.

The counterarguments to this are:

1. You can start Reddish AND also give him all of the minutes that at least one (or both) of Williamson and Barrett are sitting. It doesnt' require bringing him off the bench.
2. If the ideal goal is to have Reddish (one of the team's best talents) playing 30+ mpg, bringing him off the bench to start each half basically eliminates that possibility. Because then you're basically asking him to not come back out for the rest of the half once he comes in.
3. Ideally, you want your best players to be able to play together. Bringing Reddish off the bench reduces the number of chances to get the three of them clicking together.
4. IF (and this is a big if) you think taking him out of the starting lineup will hurt his psyche such that you may lose him, doing so may not be the best move.

I think what Coach K is trying to do at the moment is #1 (starting Reddish but also trying to get him in whenever one of Williamson or Barrett comes out) all the while trying to get Reddish assimilated into the juggernaut offense with Barrett and Williamson by the time the tourneys roll around.

Jeffrey
01-09-2019, 12:45 PM
I wonder if the question is whether AOC should start over Cam, and I think the answer to that is currently "no"-

I think the answer to that is permanently "no".

sagegrouse
01-09-2019, 12:48 PM
I don't know if this is a controversial take but it's no secret that Cam has been in a serious funk since Maui. He's simply unable to drive to the hoop without getting stripped, is a foul machine and his shooting mechanics seem to have regressed.

Jack White, on the other hand, is a rebounding machine whose defensive instincts are 2nd to only maybe Tre on the team. He's also clearly the best spot up 3 point shooter on the team and his motor simply far surpasses Cam on both ends of the floor.

If I recall correctly, K brought Ingram off the bench for a few games in the 2015-2016 season. Any chance we see a repeat of that with Cam? I'm thinking it might be good for him to come off the bench for some time and regain his confidence while getting more usage on the 2nd unit. This might light a fire under him.

I truly believe that a starter spot, minutes and playing time should be earned and not given based on your RSCI ranking and NBA potential.

Should K institute this change with the best interests of the team in mind? I'm interested in hearing all your thoughts on this.

It's a false choice. It's who finishes the games. Moreover, Jack is averaging 25 MPG and Cam 23. Next question?

Jeffrey
01-09-2019, 12:53 PM
Next question?

What's the intrinsic value of CELG?

SorryForHot
01-09-2019, 01:07 PM
I brought this up on the pre-game thread. While everyone agrees Cam is the better talent, White is playing better minutes. Someone earlier said what difference does it make stating maybe we win by +30 instead of +20. My thinking is that we have had some slow starts these past games and why not tinker some and see what results we could get making the switch, especially against teams we should soundly beat. Saturday will not be the game to try that but if Cam struggles again and the game ends up with a negative result...why not try it???

HereBeforeCoachK
01-09-2019, 01:16 PM
Non-issue, for all the many reasons stated earlier by others....and one that I really think may be a factor is confidence....what will happen to Cam's already fragile confidence if he loses the starting gig...BUT ALSO..,...what might happen to Jack's very high level of confidence if he suddenly faced the pressure of "starting?" (I put that in quotations because Jack already plays starter minutes in quality and quantity...just not the first 3 minutes of the game). I think this, plus the risk to chemistry, are among the most compelling notions as to why this is NON ISSUE.

MrPoon
01-09-2019, 01:24 PM
It is obvious to say “K knows best” on this one but I truly think for this one, that is especially acute. There is more at work here than just raw numbers. Cam in clearly not playing his best but we’ve seen some really good games too. He is young practice must be earning the PT. He needs to slow down, needs to hit a few shots and stop the early fouls. With that said the versatility of Jack and mental toughness is important too.
I think K believes Cam playing with the other starters is his best lineup over the course of the season and wants them to continue to build together and grow.
I am certain its coming. K is at his best connnecting with players and Cam needs that expertise right now.

budwom
01-09-2019, 01:25 PM
I'm not typically a member of the Duke Player Name Spelling Police, but I thought Jack was an Aussie not a Frenchman :confused:

Perhaps residing in close proximity to the French part of Canada has affected your spelling? :D

To your actual point, I agree that I think Jack as 6th man and Cam in the starting lineup is still the way to go. I think Cam as a starter is still the best way to go for long-term growth of this team.

Common misperception! IIRC from a history course I took at unc decades ago, shortly after I graduated from Duke (great course, though I don't actually remember any classes, nor the professor), the French freaked out
after Wellington and the boys routed Nappy at Waterloo. The major fear, of course, was that the Brits would get their hands on millions of bottles of Bordeaux (mon Dieu!) and rename them Claret!

So a group of Frenchmen set sail with "le vin" for the most remote land they could find, and Voila, L'Australie (later renamed by Queen Victoria or one of her ilk), where they hid the gargantuan cache of Bordeaux really really well.
So well, I believe, that it has yet to be found.
Later, of course, in another typical British land grab, it was renamed Australia, and governed as part of the Commonwealth.
You can confirm this, of course, with Kyrie Irving, fine Dukie, Australian citizen, and a chap well regarded for his knowledge of science and history.

As for Jacques White, as they say in Quebec, "Je me souviens! I remember!)

final bonus factoid: Queen Victoria didn't look anything like Jenna Coleman.

kAzE
01-09-2019, 01:33 PM
Really? If Cam gets stripped driving to the hoop when both Zion AND RJ are on the floor, what makes you think he'll be more effective when they aren't and the defensive attention is solely on Cam?

I like Cam starting. Agreed that Duke starts slow and Cam is foul prone, but taking him out may easily:

-Destroy his confidence
-Prevent Cam from working on fouling less
-Put more pressure on Zion and RJ to put up points that may lead to more offensive fouls

It's a trade-off and not clear-cut.

We've already debated this, so I'm not trying to stir the pot again, but just to play devil's advocate on your first point, I think it's possible he would get stripped less if he got more touches. I mean, a lot of the time, he doesn't even get stripped, he just loses the ball inexplicably, which I'm sure was not a regular occurrence when he was the go-to guy on most of his teams before Duke.

I think all of us would agree this slump is 100% mental. He doesn't get the volume of touches he's used to, so when he gets the ball, he tries to do too much. It's speculation, but that has to be part of his inexplicable propensity to cough up the ball. Maybe if he's the 2nd option, after subbing in for RJ or Zion, he 'd relax a little bit knowing that he'll still get the ball even if he screws up. Maybe. Or maybe not. Worth trying? Possibly.

We made a clear effort to get him the ball more against Wake, that seemed like a point of emphasis. So regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, we need to keep giving him the ball. But the opportunity cost of that when he's with the starters is fewer touches for RJ and Zion, which is why some people think it's worth a shot to try bringing him off the bench. I'm not saying either approach is right or wrong, we know there's pros and cons to both sides of this.

Would it really "destroy his confidence" though? It's possible. Is he really that sensitive? I don't know. I have no idea what his personality is like, but if it doesn't work, then just put him back in with the starters. Would it hurt so bad to try it? I think it's very possible Coach K could try it if the next couple of games don't go well for Cam.

I do think the long term goal is to have Cam start, but IMO it's worth trying some different things to get him jump started. Jack is obviously capable of starting, so we're not really getting much drop-off on either end of the floor right now. What happened to "earn everything?" You could probably even argue Jack is just better at the moment and has earned a starting spot. Against a foe like Virginia, we might need to go with the best possible lineup we have.

DukeTrinity11
01-09-2019, 01:42 PM
It's a false choice. It's who finishes the games. Moreover, Jack is averaging 25 MPG and Cam 23. Next question?

Who starts the games also matters in terms of setting a tone for the game and establishing tempo. Duke has largely played far lesser opponents besides Texas Tech since Maui and we've gotten off to slow starts in nearly all games with Cam often missing wide open 3s and turning the ball over to start.

If we get off to slow starts vs FSU and UVA on the road, we could be in a world of trouble in those games.

I know Jack's been getting minutes but I think he should see closer to 30 MPG and reduce Cam's MPG closer to 18-20 till he shows some improvement.

DukeTrinity11
01-09-2019, 01:46 PM
Non-issue, for all the many reasons stated earlier by others...and one that I really think may be a factor is confidence...what will happen to Cam's already fragile confidence if he loses the starting gig...BUT ALSO..,...what might happen to Jack's very high level of confidence if he suddenly faced the pressure of "starting?" (I put that in quotations because Jack already plays starter minutes in quality and quantity...just not the first 3 minutes of the game). I think this, plus the risk to chemistry, are among the most compelling notions as to why this is NON ISSUE.
My sense is Jack is tough as nails and he slots in perfectly into the starting lineup with 2 high usage players in RJ and Zion, a distributor in Tre and a rebounding/hustle guy in Javin.

If Cam is so fragile as to completely lose confidence coming off the bench, do we even want him out there for us in the big conference ACC games and the NCAAT?

rsvman
01-09-2019, 01:49 PM
One-syllable answer: No.

kAzE
01-09-2019, 01:50 PM
My sense is Jack is tough as nails and he slots in perfectly into the starting lineup with 2 high usage players in RJ and Zion, a distributor in Tre and a rebounding/hustle guy in Javin.

If Cam is so fragile as to completely lose confidence coming off the bench, do we even want him out there for us in the big conference ACC games and the NCAAT?

Coach K knows these guys on a personal level, so whatever he decides to do is going to be the right way to do it. I'm not saying we can't debate it here, since that's the whole point of the message board, but I do see the merits of both sides of this, so whatever Coach K does is cool with me.

But still, I don't understand the folks who are so resistant to even a temporary a lineup change. Coach K benches guys all the time for performance reasons, including highly ranked recruits. Trust the man, he's a master motivator.

DukeTrinity11
01-09-2019, 01:52 PM
-Put more pressure on Zion and RJ to put up points that may lead to more offensive fouls
How would putting a more efficient spot up 3 point shooter, a better rebounder, better passer, a better defender and a team oriented glue guy in the starting lineup put "more pressure on RJ and Zion to put up points that may lead to more offensive fouls"?

Jack White is simply a better basketball player than Reddish right now. His growth curve has been incredible and while Cam has more NBA potential, I hope K isn't putting all his eggs in the Reddish basket hoping for a major turnaround and if it doesn't come stubbornly sticks with it.

Our best lineup as of now is Tre, RJ, White, Zion, Javin which is what makes this an interesting discussion (production vs potential).

flyingdutchdevil
01-09-2019, 01:53 PM
Coach K knows these guys on a personal level, so whatever he decides to do is going to be the right way to do it. I'm not saying we can't debate it here, since that's the whole point of the message board, but I do see the merits of both sides of this, so whatever Coach K does is cool with me.

Agreed. Given that Cam has struggled offensively since the Stetson game (Dec 1), you would think Coach K would have made the change by now. But he hasn't.

Cam is here to continue starting. And, unless he doesn't improve, Jack will continue to take minutes from him.

kAzE
01-09-2019, 01:56 PM
Agreed. Given that Cam has struggled offensively since the Stetson game (Dec 1), you would think Coach K would have made the change by now. But he hasn't.

Cam is here to continue starting. And, unless he doesn't improve, Jack will continue to take minutes from him.

I don't even know if it's a clear Jack/Cam minutes split. I think the lineup we want on the floor in crunch time is Zion, Jack, Cam, RJ, and Tre. When Cam has snapped out of this funk, I believe those are the best 5 players on the team.

Is it an undersized lineup? Sure, but at this point, is anyone still questioning Zion or Jack's ability to control the boards and protect the rim? I'm not. Plus, RJ is a fantastic rebounder. If both Cam and Jack are stretching the floor with Zion and RJ slashing into open space, that's our optimal crunch time lineup IMO.

dukebluesincebirth
01-09-2019, 02:00 PM
I'm not in favor of leaving Cam out of the starting lineup right now for the same reasons many others have said: not necessary for the good of the team at this time. However, the thing you mention that worries me most is the regression of shooting mechanics. I thought it was just a shooting slump, but the shots last night toward the beginning of the game gave me a bad feeling in my stomach. Don't go all "Markelle Fultz" on us dude! I still think he'll be fine, but those shots looked awful. With the talent we have around him, we really just need Cam to be a reliable 3 point shooter on this team. That's his most important role.

miramar
01-09-2019, 02:27 PM
I never worry about lineups and minutes and all that since I prefer to leave that to the experts, but there are a couple of things that I find interesting.

Captain Jack is an incredible shot blocker, which is not something I was expecting. His 23 blocks are only 3 less than Zion, which is really amazing.

Cam's shooting form has become rather strange. He has a curious release since he starts with his elbow at about a 90 degree angle, even on free throws, but he brings his arm up as he shoots and has a good follow through. Nevertheless, I do wonder whether starting with the elbow down gives him a slow release that defenders have taken advantage of.

Lately he has taken a number of ill-advised shots where he seems to be doing the twist rather than squaring up to the basket. If he goes back to squaring up properly, especially on open threes, he should be fine.

With Coach K's philosophy that every horse runs his own race, players used to have the patience to work out all the kinks. For example, Gerald Henderson had a breakout junior year, but up to that point a lot of people were looking at him as a disappointment. Nowadays the one and dones have decided on their future before they get to Duke, so there isn't a lot of time to fix the problems in their game.

lotusland
01-09-2019, 02:37 PM
I never worry about lineups and minutes and all that since I prefer to leave that to the experts, but there are a couple of things that I find interesting.

Captain Jack is an incredible shot blocker, which is not something I was expecting. His 23 blocks are only 3 less than Zion, which is really amazing.

Cam's shooting form has become rather strange. He has a curious release since he starts with his elbow at about a 90 degree angle, even on free throws, but he brings his arm up as he shoots and has a good follow through. Nevertheless, I do wonder whether starting with the elbow down gives him a slow release that defenders have taken advantage of.

Lately he has taken a number of ill-advised shots where he seems to be doing the twist rather than squaring up to the basket. If he goes back to squaring up properly, especially on open threes, he should be fine.

With Coach K's philosophy that every horse runs his own race, players used to have the patience to work out all the kinks. For example, Gerald Henderson had a breakout junior year, but up to that point a lot of people were looking at him as a disappointment. Nowadays the one and dones have decided on their future before they get to Duke, so there isn't a lot of time to fix the problems in their game.

You must have wandered in here by accident :).

Nugget
01-09-2019, 02:39 PM
My guess is what Coach K sees in Cam is someone struggling, someone frustrated that he's struggling, someone that is working tirelessly to execute on the coaching he's being given, and someone that needs to start to show the support of his coach that he is doing everything right.

I think the fact that Jack is playing more minutes than Cam is the telling sign that the starting nod is more support and confidence building than performance based - insofar as my definition of performance is on-court and not including "attitude" or "work ethic". ...

Said differently, I think Coach is fully aware that Jack's on-court performance thus far this season is superior to Cam's. And Coach is also fully aware that Cam Reddish has a ceiling that has not been anywhere close to achieved. And thus my conclusion is that Coach is managing the situation as best he believes to grow Cam into his untapped potential while not sacrificing losses.

I think this has it about right. Coach K has demonstrated through the years a pretty masterful understanding of the psychology of his players -- in fact, I think this is his primary differentiator as a coach, moreso than any Xs and Os magic. And, he's shown an ability (and desire) to motivate through positive reinforcement, not just through negative reinforcement.

Given Cam's continued hard work on defense and Coach K's much better understanding of Cam's temperment than any of us, it seems that Coach K has made a reasonable determination that not starting him (which would no doubt receive inordinate attention as a "benching" or punishment) would not be the most effective way to help Cam's on-court improvement.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-09-2019, 03:01 PM
My sense is Jack is tough as nails and he slots in perfectly into the starting lineup with 2 high usage players in RJ and Zion, a distributor in Tre and a rebounding/hustle guy in Javin.

If Cam is so fragile as to completely lose confidence coming off the bench, do we even want him out there for us in the big conference ACC games and the NCAAT?

You never played much, did ya?

I mean, the comment about Cam's fragile confidence is mind boggling. I guess you never played many sports like golf either....confidence is HUGE and it is fragile in some personalities and some ages.

And Jack may do great as a starter. He may not. We know he's awesome as 6th man. Being "tough as nails" isn't the point.

dukelifer
01-09-2019, 03:13 PM
Cam is the one Freshman playing like a Freshman. He is good and bad- but the talent and potential is obvious. Nassir Little at UNC is similar. Both seem unable to get out of their own way at times. The college game and the defenses players need to work against are complicated and currently Cam is thinking too much. He needs to simplify his game. K knows what he is doing. He knows that Cam will turn the corner- or at least hopes it will happen. It will be frustrating for several weeks to watch this process. I will continue to yell at the TV as I have for many a Duke Freshman making boneheaded mistakes over the years. Luckily junior Jack has improved significantly.

proelitedota
01-09-2019, 03:17 PM
Jason Tatum, Brandon Ingram, and Justice Winslow all went through their freshman wall in their first year. Cam is just going through his earlier than those players.

Steven43
01-09-2019, 03:20 PM
I think this is putting it mildly though. Cam came into Duke with a HS ranking/repertoire that would suggest he should be an Ingram or Tatum level player and we've seen no indication that he can ever approach that level while in college.

I have no doubt Cam will improve tremendously in the coming years but I'm not sure its in the team's best interest in its pursuit of a national championship to keep starting him over Jack White, who up to this point has been a better basketball player.

100% agree. If I could make it 101% I would.

budwom
01-09-2019, 03:25 PM
Cam's not going to get better just sitting on the bench. Playing him is a wise investment.

NYBri
01-09-2019, 03:33 PM
I am agnostic about the Cam/JW-who-starts debate. The MPG will fall out to how the team is responding on the floor, no matter who starts.

HOWEVER, we can't afford a slow start against Virginia. Tossing 8 bricks to open the game along with some sloppy fouling will be hard to over come against the pack line and a team that plays slower than oil-based paint drying on a humid day.

That said, in all other games, I don't think it will matter one way or the other. :cool:

Steven43
01-09-2019, 03:33 PM
Given Cam's continued hard work on defense and Coach K's much better understanding of Cam's temperment than any of us, it seems that Coach K has made a reasonable determination that not starting him (which would no doubt receive inordinate attention as a "benching" or punishment) would not be the most effective way to help Cam's on-court improvement.

I agree with you that this is likely the way Coach K sees the situation. That being said, I think he (Coach) may be wroing on this one. But he may be right. Time will probably reveal the answer.

Troublemaker
01-09-2019, 03:45 PM
But still, I don't understand the folks who are so resistant to even a temporary a lineup change. Coach K benches guys all the time for performance reasons, including highly ranked recruits. Trust the man, he's a master motivator.

It's definitely not a horrible idea since they're both going to get a lot of playing time anyway. (I think folks are more resistant to the implication that Coach K isn't ALREADY acting in the team's best interests.)

Frankly, if Cam has a couple of quick turnovers against FSU that gets them easy baskets and ignites the crowd, we're going to have close to 100% agreement on bringing Cam off the bench (whether people end up admitting it or not).

That said, I don't think Cam-to-the-bench is going to happen because Cam actually showed an uptick in his play last night. It's a low bar to clear for sure, but I think Duke's going to see if he can continue the new trajectory. If Cam were going to come off the bench, it would've happened last night (before the uptick).

uh_no
01-09-2019, 03:57 PM
I am agnostic about the Cam/JW-who-starts debate. The MPG will fall out to how the team is responding on the floor, no matter who starts.

HOWEVER, we can't afford a slow start against Virginia. Tossing 8 bricks to open the game along with some sloppy fouling will be hard to over come against the pack line and a team that plays slower than oil-based paint drying on a humid day.

That said, in all other games, I don't think it will matter one way or the other. :cool:


That's not really true. Last year duke made up 12 points on UVA in 7 minutes of gameplay after a slow start.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game?gameId=400986226

Yes we eventually lost by 2, but the maxim that you can't overcome even small deficits against UVA is false.

MChambers
01-09-2019, 04:31 PM
My thoughts are that Coach K knows these players better than any of us, and has proven over time that (a) he has a very fine sense of how best to motivate each individual; and (b) his player personnel decisions are consistently made with the best interests of the team in mind, not based on recruit rankings or pro potential.

I completely agree with this and want to add that none of have the information necessary to know when or if Coach K should make such a change. But feel free to speculate!

NYBri
01-09-2019, 04:38 PM
Yes we eventually lost by 2,

I rest my case. 😎

fuse
01-09-2019, 04:39 PM
When I saw this thread title, I knew it was time to grab some popcorn.

Hasn’t disappointed yet.

uh_no
01-09-2019, 04:50 PM
I rest my case. ��

The claim was that a slow start can't be overcome. We did overcome it and lead for some amount of time in the second half.

Tripping William
01-09-2019, 04:52 PM
I rest my case. 😎

Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook say hello. Down 56-47 with five minutes to play, they win in C'ville 69-63.

Saratoga2
01-09-2019, 05:15 PM
That said, I don't think Cam-to-the-bench is going to happen because Cam actually showed an uptick in his play last night. It's a low bar to clear for sure, but I think Duke's going to see if he can continue the new trajectory. If Cam were going to come off the bench, it would've happened last night (before the uptick).

I agree that Cam started badly with two quick turnovers, but later made some good plays. Hope he can learn from these mistakes. I'm happy with letting coach K make the decisions on who gets to start and play. Will Cam make additional frustrating mistakes as we play on? Almost certainly, but he will no doubt show more improvement. No need to be too hard on him as he is just a freshman trying to find his way.

jimmymax
01-09-2019, 05:28 PM
The rote response around here has been that starting spots are earned in practice (point #1). I'm not a fan of the blind "trust in K" mantra but I'm also not privy to team practices. I certainly understand managing/massaging a top recruit's psyche early on (point #2). But once into the ACC schedule, the top five have to be on the floor: point #1 should take precedence over point #2. I do trust in K to tend to this matter.

uh_no
01-09-2019, 05:37 PM
The rote response around here has been that starting spots are earned in practice (point #1). I'm not a fan of the blind "trust in K" mantra but I'm also not privy to team practices. I certainly understand managing/massaging a top recruit's psyche early on (point #2). But once into the ACC schedule, the top five have to be on the floor: point #1 should take precedence over point #2. I do trust in K to tend to this matter.

This is where I am. Without K coming out and saying why he's playing cam, it's impossible to make an argument that he's right or wrong...and while the possibility exists that he's objectively "wrong," it's far more likely that we just don't have the data to arrive at the same conclusion he does.

A good example might be the missed free throw in the 2010 title game. After the game, some people might have just said "trust in K!!!," but the decision he made is likely statistically the wrong decision. When he explained it, the truth was far more interesting...about how he thought about how we would perform in overtime, with fatigue, and foul trouble, etc, and realized that our chances of winning in OT were not 50/50.

The point being, simply saying "trust in K" absolves the fan of any sort of thought about WHY K might be right despite appearances, and thus clouds them to questioning when K might be wrong, which does happen.

Here's a good passage from HPMOR:



There's a tale I once heard about some students who came into a physics class, and the teacher showed them a large metal plate near a fire. She ordered them to feel the metal plate, and they felt that the metal nearer the fire was cooler, and the metal further away was warmer. And she said, write down your guess for why this happens. So some students wrote down 'because of how the metal conducts heat', and some students wrote down 'because of how the air moves', and no one said 'this just seems impossible', and the real answer was that before the students came into the room, the teacher turned the plate around."
"Interesting," said Professor Quirrell. "That does sound similar. Is there a moral?"
"That your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality," said Harry. "If you're equally good at explaining any outcome, you have zero knowledge.


Simply chanting "trust in K" makes you equally good at explaining any outcome.

DUKIE V(A)
01-09-2019, 05:51 PM
Both Cam and Jack have contributed a great deal to our team success this year. They have played similar minutes with Cam scoring more (by 5.6 points a game) and Jack rebounding better (by 4 rebounds a game). They have both excelled in individual and team defense (with Cam leading the team in steals and Jack second in blocks). I expect both to build and get better as the season progresses.

In my view, quite a few posters are being overly harsh on Cam. He is having a few growing pains but so do most freshman not named RJ, Tre, or Zion. Overall, he has been a very, very good overall player. Cam is special and will prove that over the course of season. He will quiet the critics.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-09-2019, 05:54 PM
This thread has sort of evolved/devolved into an issue of Trust in K, etc....so I thought I'd stir the pot a bit.

Do I trust in K? Yes, absolutely, I trust that he's been the best person on the planet to coach Duke BB for almost four decades, and that the vast majority of his decisions are the right ones, and some of his decisions have proven spectacular, and his success has been spectacular. I trust in all of that, and that we as Duke fans are truly fortunate to be living through that, especially the ones who suffered in Duke's post Bubas / pre K days - when State, the cheats and Maryland were national powers and Duke was not relevant.

I also trust that everybody makes mistakes...and....and....I also trust in the theory of the wisdom of having a fresh set of eyes on something at times...a set of eyes far enough away to get the 30 thousand foot view...or the forest for the trees view....whatever cliche / analogy you want to use. I trust in the theory that sometimes a blind spot can develop even among genius level people that are always so close to a situation. I also trust that in many situations, clearly most situations, being close to the situation is what is required to fully understand it. Life ain't easy...this stuff can get complicated....

IOW...there are some really knowledgeable and intuitive people on DBR for example...and I"m betting that at times, when they disagreed with what K was doing, that from time to time the outsider has been correct.

And of course, I think a total 100% blind trust in anyone makes for a boring forum. That said, I fully agree with his keeping Cam in the starting lineup so far. I also really support his use of a deeper bench this season too!

dukelifer
01-09-2019, 06:03 PM
Both Cam and Jack have contributed a great deal to our team success this year. They have played similar minutes with Cam scoring more (by 5.6 points a game) and Jack rebounding better (by 4 rebounds a game). They have both excelled in individual and team defense (with Cam leading the team in steals and Jack second in blocks). I expect both to build and get better as the season progresses.

In my view, quite a few posters are being overly harsh on Cam. He is having a few growing pains but so do most freshman not named RJ, Tre, or Zion. Overall, he has been a very, very good overall player. Cam is special and will prove that over the course of season. He will quiet the critics.
In the old days- the line was- the best thing about Freshmen is that they become sophomores. In this day of one-and-done the frustration is greater because they are not becoming sophomores. The fact that Cam is not coming back coupled with typical Freshman mistakes leads to a more critical view of his poor play. His stock is not changing much because he has all the gifts you want to see- except consistency.

Kedsy
01-09-2019, 06:13 PM
In my view, quite a few posters are being overly harsh on Cam. He is having a few growing pains but so do most freshman not named RJ, Tre, or Zion. Overall, he has been a very, very good overall player. Cam is special and will prove that over the course of season. He will quiet the critics.

Cam has certainly not been at his best the last six games.

In those games, he has shot 25.4% (18.4% from three), for 7.7 ppg, along with an a/to ratio of 0.43:1.

From January 11, 2015 to January 25, 2015 (5 games), Justise Winslow shot 23.3% (20.0% from three), for 4.4 ppg, along with an a/to ratio of 0.57:1.

At the time, there were some people around here panicking about what K should do about Justise, but my recollection is not nearly as many as are clamoring now. Fortunately, K stuck with him and Justise snapped out of it. Hopefully Cam will as well.

MChambers
01-09-2019, 06:26 PM
This thread has sort of evolved/devolved into an issue of Trust in K, etc...so I thought I'd stir the pot a bit.

Do I trust in K? Yes, absolutely, I trust that he's been the best person on the planet to coach Duke BB for almost four decades, and that the vast majority of his decisions are the right ones, and some of his decisions have proven spectacular, and his success has been spectacular. I trust in all of that, and that we as Duke fans are truly fortunate to be living through that, especially the ones who suffered in Duke's post Bubas / pre K days - when State, the cheats and Maryland were national powers and Duke was not relevant.

I also trust that everybody makes mistakes...and...and...I also trust in the theory of the wisdom of having a fresh set of eyes on something at times...a set of eyes far enough away to get the 30 thousand foot view...or the forest for the trees view...whatever cliche / analogy you want to use. I trust in the theory that sometimes a blind spot can develop even among genius level people that are always so close to a situation. I also trust that in many situations, clearly most situations, being close to the situation is what is required to fully understand it. Life ain't easy...this stuff can get complicated...

IOW...there are some really knowledgeable and intuitive people on DBR for example...and I"m betting that at times, when they disagreed with what K was doing, that from time to time the outsider has been correct.

And of course, I think a total 100% blind trust in anyone makes for a boring forum. That said, I fully agree with his keeping Cam in the starting lineup so far. I also really support his use of a deeper bench this season too!
I don’t think I am saying Trust in K. I’m saying that none of us have access to the information to know what the right decision is. I wouldn’t say that about switching to a zone or telling Zoubs to miss that free throw against Butler. I’m guessing others are with me on this.

Indoor66
01-09-2019, 06:40 PM
This is where I am. Without K coming out and saying why he's playing cam, it's impossible to make an argument that he's right or wrong...and while the possibility exists that he's objectively "wrong," it's far more likely that we just don't have the data to arrive at the same conclusion he does.

A good example might be the missed free throw in the 2010 title game. After the game, some people might have just said "trust in K!!!," but the decision he made is likely statistically the wrong decision. When he explained it, the truth was far more interesting...about how he thought about how we would perform in overtime, with fatigue, and foul trouble, etc, and realized that our chances of winning in OT were not 50/50.

The point being, simply saying "trust in K" absolves the fan of any sort of thought about WHY K might be right despite appearances, and thus clouds them to questioning when K might be wrong, which does happen.

Here's a good passage from HPMOR:



Simply chanting "trust in K" makes you equally good at explaining any outcome.

Quoting Harry Potter in an argument to bolster your opinion is a concession of the argument.

Steven43
01-09-2019, 06:49 PM
Cam has certainly not been at his best the last six games.

In those games, he has shot 25.4% (18.4% from three), for 7.7 ppg, along with an a/to ratio of 0.43:1.

From January 11, 2015 to January 25, 2015 (5 games), Justise Winslow shot 23.3% (20.0% from three), for 4.4 ppg, along with an a/to ratio of 0.57:1.

At the time, there were some people around here panicking about what K should do about Justise, but my recollection is not nearly as many as are clamoring now. Fortunately, K stuck with him and Justise snapped out of it. Hopefully Cam will as well.
It is rather astonishing the way you consistently pull these stats seemingly out of the ether. I don’t always agree with the conclusions drawn by the stats you use (though I often do agree), but my gosh, it’s something to see.

MChambers
01-09-2019, 07:00 PM
It is rather astonishing the way you consistently pull these stats seemingly out of the ether. I don’t always agree with the conclusions drawn by the stats you use (though I often do agree), but my gosh, it’s something to see.

Maybe Kedsy is just making the stats up? Anybody checking his work?

uh_no
01-09-2019, 07:06 PM
Quoting Harry Potter in an argument to bolster your opinion is a concession of the argument.

Apparently you're unaware of what methods of rationality is. It's not the "harry potter" you know. It's author, Elizer Yudkowsky, is a noted rationalist thinker and writer....who in this novel uses the harry potter universe to convey paradigms of rational thinking to the readers.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-09-2019, 07:11 PM
I don’t think I am saying Trust in K. I’m saying that none of us have access to the information to know what the right decision is. I wouldn’t say that about switching to a zone or telling Zoubs to miss that free throw against Butler. I’m guessing others are with me on this.

Interesting you mention the Zoubs FT versus Butler...where I've always thought that was the RIGHT decision, but I don't think K explained it fully in the presser. Then again, he was thrilled to win another Natty...probably not too concerned about anything else at that moment.

BUT, since you brought it up...Zoubs was only 50% shooter anyway....so encouraging him to make it left only a 50% chance he would make it. With such a 50-50 situation, if your team knows what the outcome will be because an intentional miss was called, they should be more able to get the rebound. Meanwhile, the Butler players had to think "do this" with a make or "do that" with a miss....and of course, most long FT misses bounce around and get tipped around for several seconds before anyone gets control. I'm sure that's what K was going for.

Now, as it turned out, the ball took a perfect bounce to Heyward, who took a perfect angle down the court, got a perfect (illegal) pick and then almost hit the perfect shot. Zoub could do that a thousand times, and Butler would never again get the quality of shot they got. They would rarely get that quick and easy of a rebound, let alone the other. So everything went perfect for Butler, but Duke still won. The odds were with K in that situation.

A 75% FT shooter? Different calculation. (the irony is, Zoub's first FT was so perfect, he may have well hit another one...)

Nugget
01-09-2019, 07:13 PM
Cam has certainly not been at his best the last six games.

In those games, he has shot 25.4% (18.4% from three), for 7.7 ppg, along with an a/to ratio of 0.43:1.

From January 11, 2015 to January 25, 2015 (5 games), Justise Winslow shot 23.3% (20.0% from three), for 4.4 ppg, along with an a/to ratio of 0.57:1.

At the time, there were some people around here panicking about what K should do about Justise, but my recollection is not nearly as many as are clamoring now. Fortunately, K stuck with him and Justise snapped out of it. Hopefully Cam will as well.

I think what you are recalling as a relative lack of clamoring on the board /panicking about what K should do about Justise's shooting slump during that stretch is that we were fully engaged in a complete melt-down over the porous defense in the losses on Jan. 11 at NC St. (87-75) and Jan. 13 home to Miami (90-74), and the then-historic zone D game at Louisville a few days later!

Steven43
01-09-2019, 07:54 PM
Maybe Kedsy is just making the stats up? Anybody checking his work?

Umm....yeah. I’ll get right on that.

ncexnyc
01-09-2019, 08:15 PM
Here was part of my response after the Texas Tech game:
"I agree with the majority of the board that our highest potential as a team comes with Cam as a starter, however Jack White isn't a bad fall back option. To date the scouting report on Cam seems fairly accurate. I guess the question is how long does Coach K stick with Cam, if Cam never finds that consistency that the team needs? My guess would be the end of January."

I still believe what I wrote above and agree with the very small minority who believe we can't dig ourselves a hole in big games by not having someone who can hit an outside shot on a steady basis starting for us in those games.

Steven43
01-09-2019, 08:30 PM
I still believe what I wrote above and agree with the very small minority who believe we can't dig ourselves a hole in big games by not having someone who can hit an outside shot on a steady basis starting for us in those games.
You’re definitely not alone.

sagegrouse
01-09-2019, 08:46 PM
You’re definitely not alone.

You're better than me -- I got lost in ex-NYC's double negative.

moonpie23
01-09-2019, 11:15 PM
dang....i guess we'll just have to trust K on this....

jipops
01-09-2019, 11:25 PM
K giving Jack a starting nod in 1 or 2 games is certainly plausible but also doubtful. It would likely further damage Cam’s already struggling confidence on offense. Plus, what is overlooked here is Cam’s excellent play on the other end. He makes very good use of his length on the perimeter and can be disruptive.

Jack has also shown himself to be very comfortable in his current role and gets tons of minutes. He understands his limitations and strengths and plays his role. I just don’t see what good starting him would do for anybody.

Kedsy
01-09-2019, 11:53 PM
K giving Jack a starting nod in 1 or 2 games is certainly plausible but also doubtful. It would likely further damage Cam’s already struggling confidence on offense. Plus, what is overlooked here is Cam’s excellent play on the other end. He makes very good use of his length on the perimeter and can be disruptive.

Jack has also shown himself to be very comfortable in his current role and gets tons of minutes. He understands his limitations and strengths and plays his role. I just don’t see what good starting him would do for anybody.

Both good points. Cam is an excellent defender. And starting Jack means him primarily defending the opposing SF instead of PF. Those two things could make a huge difference to our defense (and probably not in a good way).

jimmymax
01-09-2019, 11:59 PM
I just realized that Jack's block-to-turnover ratio is 3.29, while Cam's is 0.12. This should not be overlooked, unless you have more important things to do.

Kedsy
01-10-2019, 12:45 AM
It is rather astonishing the way you consistently pull these stats seemingly out of the ether. I don’t always agree with the conclusions drawn by the stats you use (though I often do agree), but my gosh, it’s something to see.

Thanks. I think.

JNort
01-10-2019, 01:50 AM
If Cam gets hurt and can't play.

BeachBlueDevil
01-10-2019, 08:25 AM
1. Is Duke losing with Cam starting? No.

2. Is Duke winning with Cam starting? Yes.

So I would say the correct answer here is keep Cam in the starting lineup. The best way to break a slump is to keep on shooting and the only way to get that is in PT and practice.

Indoor66
01-10-2019, 08:30 AM
[QUOTE=BeachBlueDevil;1114790]1. Is Duke losing with Cam starting? No.

2. Is Duke winning with Cam starting? Yes.

So I would say the correct answer here is keep Cam in the starting lineup. The best way to break a slump is to keep on shooting and the only way to get that is in Practice and PT.

FIFY

johnb
01-10-2019, 09:21 AM
Cam’s play (thus far) does not make me want to draft him in the top 5 in 2019, but he’s certainly good enough to play 25-30 minutes on any college team. Elite Duke players sometimes briefly come off the bench, but that’s often because of effort. Cam certainly seems to be working hard and is a good teammate—I don’t think he needs to be pushed to be more motivated...

Saratoga2
01-10-2019, 09:29 AM
I just realized that Jack's block-to-turnover ratio is 3.29, while Cam's is 0.12. This should not be overlooked, unless you have more important things to do.

The point being that it is not all about Cam's shooting slump but more about all around quality of play, including turnovers, fouls, defense and also of course scoring efficiency. Cam is judged by more knowledgeable basketball people to have a high upside but he is a freshman and is having a learning curve struggle. Jack is an upperclassman who is obviously doing a great job on defense, with rebounding and can hit the outside shot if set up to do so.

Coach K has to decide what is in the best interest of the team, to let Cam proceed on his learning curve as a starter or go with Jack and reduce Cam's minutes. I trust in coach K to make that decision.

OldPhiKap
01-10-2019, 09:33 AM
The best way to break a slump is to keep on shooting and the only way to get that is in PT and practice.

This is exactly right, and frankly is more important than whether we win or lose a game in January. If Cam is struggling a bit to adjust to the college game, sitting him on the bench will not help. We will need him in March.

Truth&Justise
01-10-2019, 09:46 AM
I just realized that Jack's block-to-turnover ratio is 3.29, while Cam's is 0.12. This should not be overlooked, unless you have more important things to do.

Is that a real stat? I've never seen it tracked before. What does a measure of block-to-turnover ratio tell us about a player? Because it kind of seems like two cherry-picked metrics that don't have a lot to do with each other.

You probably could have made a clearer point by looking at steals-to-turnover ratio--that would give a rough estimate of the impact a player is having on the number of Duke possessions. Jack doesn't get many steals (15 so far) but also doesn't turn the ball over (only 7), for a ratio of 2.14:1. On the other side, Cam has generated a lot of steals (28, second on the team) but is leading the team in turnovers (42), for a ratio of 0.66:1. That's probably a more telling stat for the point you were trying to make.

But that doesn't tell the whole story, because turnovers are impacted by usage. Jack is a role player whose function in the offense is limited to catch-and-shoot. And he's been great at that! Yay! But Cam has shown some ability to do more, and having him as another person who can create shots is very valuable. So far, his efforts to create off the dribble have resulted in more turnovers, but I'm hoping he can get those turnovers down as the season progresses.

I remain convinced it is in the best long-term interest of the team to continue starting Cam Reddish, who mind you, is a very good basketball player. Especially as long as we keep wining most games by 20+.

But by all means, this is the internet, so let's shine a spotlight on one of the few disappointing developments in this season so far.

uh_no
01-10-2019, 10:29 AM
This is exactly right, and frankly is more important than whether we win or lose a game in January. If Cam is struggling a bit to adjust to the college game, sitting him on the bench will not help. We will need him in March.

I'm a strong proponent that players can get almost as much of that adjustment in practice. That said, given we have the leeway, there's no reason not to get more in games. I think Cam gets more benefit from those minutes than Jack does.

DukeTrinity11
01-10-2019, 10:32 AM
Is that a real stat? I've never seen it tracked before. What does a measure of block-to-turnover ratio tell us about a player? Because it kind of seems like two cherry-picked metrics that don't have a lot to do with each other.

You probably could have made a clearer point by looking at steals-to-turnover ratio--that would give a rough estimate of the impact a player is having on the number of Duke possessions. Jack doesn't get many steals (15 so far) but also doesn't turn the ball over (only 7), for a ratio of 2.14:1. On the other side, Cam has generated a lot of steals (28, second on the team) but is leading the team in turnovers (42), for a ratio of 0.66:1. That's probably a more telling stat for the point you were trying to make.

But that doesn't tell the whole story, because turnovers are impacted by usage. Jack is a role player whose function in the offense is limited to catch-and-shoot. And he's been great at that! Yay! But Cam has shown some ability to do more, and having him as another person who can create shots is very valuable. So far, his efforts to create off the dribble have resulted in more turnovers, but I'm hoping he can get those turnovers down as the season progresses.

I remain convinced it is in the best long-term interest of the team to continue starting Cam Reddish, who mind you, is a very good basketball player. Especially as long as we keep wining most games by 20+.

But by all means, this is the internet, so let's shine a spotlight on one of the few disappointing developments in this season so far.
Cam is nothing more than a role player on this Duke team too and Jack is much better at being a complimentary role player than Reddish right now with his spacing, rebounding, defensive awareness and lack of turnovers.

You're romanticizing Cam as if he's filling this sort of Tatum or Ingram role on this team when in reality he's just a spot up shooter and team defender.

We already have 2 high usage players in RJ and Zion and there's only ball to go around.

Jeffrey
01-10-2019, 10:52 AM
I'm a strong proponent that players can get almost as much of that adjustment in practice.

I don't believe Cam's issues (poor ball handling, foolish turnovers, shooting slump, etc.) can be mostly resolved solely in practice. I think Cam is experiencing televised game pressure and needs PT to resolve his issues. I also suspect he already looks substantially better in practice.

Lar77
01-10-2019, 11:11 AM
I saw this today and thought it was a joke, but reading some of the comments, there are some good points made. However, I like the current starting lineup and I like the current rotation plan.

The team is winning comfortably, despite our habit of playing not up to par for the first 15 minutes. Our defense has been a killer and defense can make up for a lot of offensive issues.

Cam is clearly an excellent player, but he seems to be playing ahead of himself. Game time is the only way to adjust that. Practice is good (our second team would probably be in the upper parts of D1 programs), but game environment (especially on the road in the ACC) cannot be reproduced in practice.

Love Jack and he could start, but he's getting starter minutes anyway.

Unlike with past Duke teams, K doesn't seem to be running guys 35 minutes plus. That should help down the road with fatigue and injury.

It's early January. We play for March. FSU will be our first top 25 ACC road game and will give us a better sense of what our team needs.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-10-2019, 12:04 PM
I'm a strong proponent that players can get almost as much of that adjustment in practice. That said, given we have the leeway, there's no reason not to get more in games. I think Cam gets more benefit from those minutes than Jack does.

That depends on your definition of "almost as much"........it also depends on the player too. If by almost, you mean virtually the same....I would disagree. If by almost, you mean significantly helpful but not the same....I would agree. Then there's the fact - one that coaches generally do not like to even admit, because coaches are really big on practice - is that some guys simply cannot blossom in practice. Some guys cannot handle it in games. All these kids are wired differently.

I'm not saying Cam fits this - I've no idea - but we see examples of it in every sport.

I know Cut has said something to the effect that he doesn't even believe in the concept of "practice players" versus "game players." It's a rare situation where I would beg to differ.

ncexnyc
01-10-2019, 12:14 PM
My how this board has changed over the years. I remember when I first got here my throw downs with Jumbo over the practice and playing time issue. Back then the board was squarely in favor of, "The best players start and you earn your court time from practice." Now I'm seeing something a bit different or at least in this case it appears that way.

CameronBornAndBred
01-10-2019, 12:16 PM
JW started the second half of the Clemson game. (And rewarded K with a three pointer with barely 15 seconds ticked off the clock.)

(I don't think he started over Cam, though.)

JNort
01-10-2019, 12:34 PM
I'm a strong proponent that players can get almost as much of that adjustment in practice. That said, given we have the leeway, there's no reason not to get more in games. I think Cam gets more benefit from those minutes than Jack does.

I would have to 100% disagree with that. Growing up playing sports of all kinds made me realize how well an individual does in practice has almost no affect on their game day playing. Getting into a game with something on the line is what makes you learn.





*Shouldn't have said 100%. It depends on the individual in question and this is where you have to hope the coaches know what type of learner Cam in this case is. The way it's been treated suggests they think Cam learns better in real games, however of no progress is made after a time I could see a situation where they try him as the 6th man for a little bit. I for one am not as disappointed as many of you seem to be with him.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-10-2019, 12:37 PM
My how this board has changed over the years. I remember when I first got here my throw downs with Jumbo over the practice and playing time issue. Back then the board was squarely in favor of, "The best players start and you earn your court time from practice." Now I'm seeing something a bit different or at least in this case it appears that way.

I don't think it's just this board.....I think coaches are coming to realize that while earning field or court time comes from practice - for most people most of the time - that there are certain great practice players who cannot produce in games....and there are poor practice players who suddenly explode when given game time. Tom Brady comes to mind. Shared the QB time at Michigan with (enter forgettable name here) and then picked in sixth round in the NFL - and then rode the bench until Bledsoe got injured. The rest is history.

But clearly there was zip zero nada indication in Brady's practices at Michigan or New England that he was an all world QB. He has become a great practice player and preparer, but that's NOT where he established himself.

CDu
01-10-2019, 12:40 PM
JW started the second half of the Clemson game. (And rewarded K with a three pointer with barely 15 seconds ticked off the clock.)

(I don't think he started over Cam, though.)

He did start the second half of the Clemson game, and he DID start it over Reddish. But that was - as Coach K specifically pointed out - because Reddish already had 3 fouls at the half.

Tripping William
01-10-2019, 12:41 PM
I don't think it's just this board....I think coaches are coming to realize that while earning field or court time comes from practice - for most people most of the time - that there are certain great practice players who cannot produce in games...and there are poor practice players who suddenly explode when given game time. Tom Brady comes to mind. Shared the QB time at Michigan with (enter forgettable name here) and then picked in sixth round in the NFL - and then rode the bench until Bledsoe got injured. The rest is history.

But clearly there was zip zero nada indication in Brady's practices at Michigan or New England that he was an all world QB. He has become a great practice player and preparer, but that's NOT where he established himself.

Of course, we all know The Answer's answer (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGDBR2L5kzI).

JNort
01-10-2019, 12:45 PM
I don't think it's just this board...I think coaches are coming to realize that while earning field or court time comes from practice - for most people most of the time - that there are certain great practice players who cannot produce in games...and there are poor practice players who suddenly explode when given game time. Tom Brady comes to mind. Shared the QB time at Michigan with (enter forgettable name here) and then picked in sixth round in the NFL - and then rode the bench until Bledsoe got injured. The rest is history.

But clearly there was zip zero nada indication in Brady's practices at Michigan or New England that he was an all world QB. He has become a great practice player and preparer, but that's NOT where he established himself.

Yeah practice is for those who can for a lack of a better term show off or better yet showcase a talent(s). It doesn't mean they can do it at game speed.


Quick anecdote, I tried out for my soccer team and barely made it (listed as a reserve) when I was younger. First game of the season we had a guy twist his ankle so I was put in. I continued to be the best midfielder every game for the rest of the season. I didn't show very well in practices because my dribble ability is more straightforward, average speed, and only decently accurate when shooting at the goal. In games though I just had a great "feel" for the game that leaped me over my more athletic peers.

Brady never had the biggest arm and nobody would call him athletic I hope. He does however process what he see on the field better than almost anyone and prepares for each game with a ton of film.

Steven43
01-10-2019, 12:46 PM
But by all means, this is the internet, so let's shine a spotlight on one of the few disappointing developments in this season so far.

You first try to improve the things that appear to most need improving, right? Why would we be discussing, say, Zion or Tre when talking about ways to make the team better? Cam seems the obvious choice at this point in time.

Maybe next month the discussion will have moved on from Cam to some other aspect of the team, like, perhaps, the team managers not running as fast or frantically as they used to at halftime and at the end of games. In fact, I think we’ve already seen a regression. Stay tuned.

AZLA
01-10-2019, 01:03 PM
My how this board has changed over the years. I remember when I first got here my throw downs with Jumbo over the practice and playing time issue. Back then the board was squarely in favor of, "The best players start and you earn your court time from practice." Now I'm seeing something a bit different or at least in this case it appears that way.

Good points; a few thoughts

1. Coach K starts players and adjusts rotations based on matchups.
2. Perhaps Cam is performing very well in practice and continuing to earn the start. But it’s not translating in the last few games. So when he struggles — it’s a quick sub — just like for anyone. It’s like someone who is a rock star on the driving range, but it’s not translating to the golf course. Earlier someone mentioned yips. In terms of coaching a great talent like Cam — you keep sending them in.
3. Maybe K is coaching to the upside. Meaning, everyone saw how unstoppable this team was when they rolled Kentucky. Cam was integral and played great in that game. All season they’ve been trying to match that level and get even better. He knows the potential of this team when hitting on all cylinders.
4. maybe K knows and sees that having this lineup has lit a fire under Jack and his game play reflects that. It also may give Duke an advantage over other teams who aren’t prepared for someone coming off the bench and playing so well. My point is maybe there’s a motivational element K is employing. Jack really is a good cerebral player and captain. Maybe he’s on the bench assessing the matchup to start and brings in the adjustment.

Either way, if Duke is winning big — why mess with the formula when you’re expecting in a game soon Cam will have a breakout and get back to what his potential is. I’d give it another game or two...

kAzE
01-10-2019, 01:10 PM
I agree that if Cam were going to ever come off the bench, the Wake Forest game would have been the time to do it. I think at this point, the games are going to be much closer, so experimenting with a different rotation against a team like FSU in their house would be more likely to disrupt what we've been doing than help.

Cam did look more comfortable to me in the final 2-3 minutes of the Wake game, when he was in the game as the primary ball handler. He didn't do anything crazy, and it was garbage time, but he seemed to be much more relaxed with his dribbling and passing than usual, and didn't try to force things. Maybe that's a reach, but I do think a huge part of the problem is that he has had a rough time adjusting to deferring to multiple other guys. I believe he will get there, but I completely disagree that he should be used as "just" a spot up shooter and team defender. That's a huge waste of his skills. We have the entire rest of the conference schedule to integrate the best version of Cam into this offense.

He's a ridiculously talented player (https://youtu.be/kPhMYkEspME) (I think some people here have forgotten that). This is not a Tre Duval situation (as in, a guy who was a bit overrated coming out of HS). Cam is an elite, elite talent, so I'm still confident he will find his way.

AZLA
01-10-2019, 01:26 PM
I agree that if Cam were going to ever come off the bench, the Wake Forest game would have been the time to do it. I think at this point, the games are going to be much closer, so experimenting with a different rotation against a team like FSU in their house would be more likely to disrupt what we've been doing than help.

Cam did look more comfortable to me in the final 2-3 minutes of the Wake game, when he was in the game as the primary ball handler. He didn't do anything crazy, and it was garbage time, but he seemed to be much more relaxed with his dribbling and passing than usual, and didn't try to force things. Maybe that's a reach, but I do think a huge part of the problem is that he has had a rough time adjusting to deferring to multiple other guys. I believe he will get there, but I completely disagree that he should be used as "just" a spot up shooter and team defender. That's a huge waste of his skills. We have the entire rest of the conference schedule to integrate the best version of Cam into this offense.

He's a ridiculously talented player (https://youtu.be/kPhMYkEspME) (I think some people here have forgotten that). This is not a Tre Duval situation (as in, a guy who was a bit overrated coming out of HS). Cam is an elite, elite talent, so I'm still confident he will find his way.

Well said. Hey just to bookend this, go listen to the Dan Patrick showcast — Coach K specifically addresses his “starting five” ;)

Here’s cheering on Cam to play well against ‘Noles.

NYBri
01-10-2019, 01:34 PM
The claim was that a slow start can't be overcome. We did overcome it and lead for some amount of time in the second half.

The claim was that a slow start against Virginia would be hard to overcome (in order to win was implied). Without the slow start, we would have won. cheers. :cool:

NYBri
01-10-2019, 01:39 PM
Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook say hello. Down 56-47 with five minutes to play, they win in C'ville 69-63.

And it was a great frickin' game. I remember it well. However, it wasn't easy. I pointed out that overcoming a deficit like that against Virginia is hard, not impossible. And in context of this discussion, I was making the point that who starts (Cam or Jack) normally makes no difference. The only time I would consider starting Jack is against Virginia, where he could help keep us from falling behind considering our slow starts with Cam.

GO Duke!

Cheers. :cool:

Steven43
01-10-2019, 02:10 PM
Meaning, everyone saw how unstoppable this team was when they rolled Kentucky. Cam was integral and played great in that game.
Yes, Cam played well in the Kentucky game. But even in that dominating blowout he shot beliw 50% from the field and had only two rebounds. Sure, he’s had a couple of good games statistically, but the majority have seemed to be something other than what one would call “good”.

I really hope Cam can find a higher level before it’s too late, as Duke only has him for one year. It would be less than ideal if what he has shown thus far is pretty much how the rest of the season is going to play out for him. I expected Cam to be a roughly equal contributor to Zion, RJ, and Tre. Thus far that hasn’t happened. Perhaps my expectations were unrealistic. That would be on me, not Cam.

Kedsy
01-10-2019, 02:45 PM
Yes, Cam played well in the Kentucky game. But even in that dominating blowout he shot beliw 50% from the field and had only two rebounds. Sure, he’s had a couple of good games statistically, but the majority have seemed to be something other than what one would call “good”.

You are understating how well Cam played in the UK game. Most guys who shoot more than half their shots from three shoot less than 50% from the field. His eFG% was 53.6% and his true shooting pct was 64.4%. He had 3 assists against 0 turnovers and got four steals.

I would say that he's had 5 very strong games statistically on offense (which is obviously less than a majority out of 14 games), and 10 or 11 strong games statistically (and otherwise) on defense (which obviously is a majority). So whether or not the majority of his performances were "what one would call 'good'" really depends on whether you include defense in your analysis.

Stray Gator
01-10-2019, 03:06 PM
Yes, Cam played well in the Kentucky game. But even in that dominating blowout he shot beliw 50% from the field and had only two rebounds. Sure, he’s had a couple of good games statistically, but the majority have seemed to be something other than what one would call “good”. . . .

In the Kentucky game, you're right that Reddish was *only* 6-14 from the floor; but that breaks down as 3-8 from three-point range (37.5%) and 3-6 from inside the arc (50%). In addition, he was 7-7 on free throws, contributing a total of 22 points. And while you're also right that he had *only* 2 rebounds -- while playing mainly on the perimeter, of course -- he also had 4 steals, 3 assists, and 0 turnovers. You selectively focus on a couple of statistics that may appear to merit no more than a shrug in isolation, but I believe a review of the overall stat line shows that he delivered a very impressive performance, particularly considering the setting and the quality of the opponent. He was also Duke's leading scorer (with Barrett) against Auburn on 40% three-point shooting (with 5 rebounds and 2 steals), hit 50% of his three-pointers in a relatively off-game against Gonzaga, made 3-7 from behind the arc (43%) against Indiana, and was 8-15 from the floor and 4-9 from three-point range while scoring 23 against Stetson.

Granted, in the next five games, he was more down than up. But in my book, the foregoing review of the record shows that he's still had more than "a couple of good games." I also found it encouraging that he bounced back from a rough start to hit two of his last four three-pointers in the most recent outing against Wake, which I think we all hope is a signal that he's breaking out of a slump. In any event, he's not the first Duke starter to go through a shooting slump. In earlier cases, K generally stuck with the player in the starting lineup, and ultimately that decision proved beneficial because it gave the player an opportunity to recover his confidence and resume the role of an important contributor. Again, although I don't always agree with his choices, I'd prefer to rely on K's judgment in this regard.

CDu
01-10-2019, 03:07 PM
You are understating how well Cam played in the UK game. Most guys who shoot more than half their shots from three shoot less than 50% from the field. His eFG% was 53.6% and his true shooting pct was 64.4%. He had 3 assists against 0 turnovers and got four steals.

Yeah, we can probably point to that UK game as being close to our ceiling. It's the only game against a P5/Top-25 team that we've seen all 3 stud freshmen playing well offensively. Neither Reddish nor Barrett have fared very well in the other P5+Gonzaga games. But when those 3 are all clicking, man is it good.

I say "close to" largely because the shot distribution was still too little Williamson at that point. But otherwise, that's the type of juggernaut that is feasible if all 3 guys are on. And that is what Coach K is trying to get back to, if not improve upon (it's weird to say that the very first game of the season is close to the ceiling, especially with such a young and inexperienced team).

Steven43
01-10-2019, 03:15 PM
So whether or not the majority of his performances were "what one would call 'good'" really depends on whether you include defense in your analysis.
Point taken

uh_no
01-10-2019, 03:28 PM
Neither Reddish nor Barrett have fared very well in the other P5+Gonzaga games.

21 pts, 7 assists vs wake forest was a pretty good outing for RJ, as was 22 points and 9 boards against indiana. 18 and 9 vs auburn. Even though RJ is inefficient at times, lumping those in the "not fared very well" bucket with Cam's recent performances is a bit unfair.

Further, Cam had a very good game vs auburn. 4-10 from 3, 6-6 from the line with 5 boards.

So I think your blanket statement is too strong.

kAzE
01-10-2019, 03:32 PM
I say "close to" largely because the shot distribution was still too little Williamson at that point.

This may be going a bit off topic, but this is a good observation.

Without looking at usage stats, it seemed like the Wake Forest game was the first time where Zion overtook RJ as the 1A option on offense. Obviously, he's been the most efficient offensive player on the team by quite a bit in the first 14 games, so I hope this is the usage pattern going forward. It's not even that RJ has been inefficient, because he's been fantastic, too. Zion is just on a completely different (and probably unheard of) level of efficiency. Cam and RJ both need their touches, but I hope we see Zion continue to get the most opportunities while he is in the game. The guy is literally unstoppable.

CDu
01-10-2019, 03:37 PM
21 pts, 7 assists vs wake forest was a pretty good outing for RJ, as was 22 points and 9 boards against indiana. 18 and 9 vs auburn. Even though RJ is inefficient at times, lumping those in the "not fared very well" bucket with Cam's recent performances is a bit unfair.

Further, Cam had a very good game vs auburn. 4-10 from 3, 6-6 from the line with 5 boards.

So I think your blanket statement is too strong.

I was talking about his efficiency. 18 points on 20 shots with 4 turnovers is pretty poor. 22 points on 18 shots with 5 turnovers is slightly less poor.

Yes, he provided a bunch of rebounds in those two games. But the efficiency and turnovers were pretty awful.

Granted, not on the same level of awful that Reddish's worst games have been.

But you're right: the Reddish game against Auburn was quite good (18 points on 10 FGA and 6 FTA, 5 rebounds, 2 steals to 2 turnovers).

CDu
01-10-2019, 03:45 PM
This may be going a bit off topic, but this is a good observation.

Without looking at usage stats, it seemed like the Wake Forest game was the first time where Zion overtook RJ as the 1A option on offense. Obviously, he's been the most efficient offensive player on the team by quite a bit in the first 14 games, so I hope this is the usage pattern going forward. It's not even that RJ has been inefficient, because he's been fantastic, too. Zion is just on a completely different (and probably unheard of) level of efficiency. Cam and RJ both need their touches, but I hope we see Zion continue to get the most opportunities while he is in the game. The guy is literally unstoppable.

Technically, Barrett still had a slightly higher usage (slightly more shots per minute, more TOs, and more FTA). That said, he got a larger proportion of those shots off-ball than he usually does, so the usage% might not really reflect teh "1A vs 1B" of it in this case. I agree that it felt more like a "Williamson is the focal point" game to me too.

And yes and no to the bolded part above. Yes, Barrett has been a fantastic player overall. But against P5 and Gonzaga, he actually HAS been pretty inefficient offensively. He's just absolutely obliterated lesser competition.

He's been less inefficient the last two games (still average to below-average efficiency, but not as inefficient as earlier) and he's taken fewer attempts in those games as well. That's a step in the right direction, especially given how otherworldly efficient Williamson has been.

If Barrett can start being above-average in efficiency, I'll be good with him pushing Williamson for attempts. In part because I think that's part of what makes Barrett work, and in part because I don't want to risk overusing and hurting Williamson. But at the moment, I'd be happier with the distribution shifting even further toward Williamson.

kAzE
01-10-2019, 04:10 PM
If Barrett can start being above-average in efficiency, I'll be good with him pushing Williamson for attempts. In part because I think that's part of what makes Barrett work, and in part because I don't want to risk overusing and hurting Williamson. But at the moment, I'd be happier with the distribution shifting even further toward Williamson.

I would like Zion to be the usage leader, because he seems to make the "right play" more often than RJ does. RJ is a scorer, and there's nothing wrong with that. He's the best pure scorer on the team. It was nice to see him get 7 assists in the previous game, but he does tend to force up shots more often than I think we would all prefer. This is nitpicking, because he's incredible at drawing contact and getting to foul line, which is a huge plus for the team, and is a very important part of his game.

Zion doesn't ever seem to force the issue though. It just seems like every time he gets the ball, he either scores easily or makes a great pass to an open teammate, because he draws the entire defense to him when he gets inside. He really is a phenomenal passer with point guard-like vision. So while RJ (and Cam) should still get a good number of opportunities to create with the ball in their hands, I agree the team would become even more efficient offensively with Zion being the focal point, and everyone else playing off of him. I'm with you on RJ pushing him for usage, and making it more like 1A and 1B though, instead of a clear #1/#2.

Steven43
01-10-2019, 04:14 PM
I agree the team would become even more efficient offensively with Zion being the #1 option, and everyone else playing off of him.

I doubt there is a basketball-focused person in this country (other than, maybe, RJ’s dad) who would disagree.

uh_no
01-10-2019, 04:15 PM
I would like Zion to be the usage leader, because he seems to make the "right play" more often than RJ does. RJ is a scorer, and there's nothing wrong with that. He's the best pure scorer on the team. It was nice to see him get 7 assists in the previous game, but he does tend to force up shots more often than I think we would all prefer. This is nitpicking, because he's incredible at drawing contact and getting to foul line, which is a huge plus for the team, and is a very important part of his game.

Zion doesn't ever seem to force the issue though. It just seems like every time he gets the ball, he either scores easily or makes a great pass to an open teammate, because he draws the entire defense to him when he gets inside. He really is a phenomenal passer with point guard-like vision. So while RJ (and Cam) should still get a good number of opportunities to create with the ball in their hands, I agree the team would become even more efficient offensively with Zion being the focal point, and everyone else playing off of him. I'm with you on RJ pushing him for usage, and making it more like 1A and 1B though, instead of a clear #1/#2.

I'd like to see Cam to position himself to get some of those easy buckets from zion. Javin, Bolden, and to some degree Jack have made a killing mopping up the exact kind of plays your talking about, yet cam seems to never be in the right place to take advantage. The more he is able to take advantage of easy buckets like that, the more confidence he'll have otherwise, I think.

CDu
01-10-2019, 04:28 PM
I'd like to see Cam to position himself to get some of those easy buckets from zion. Javin, Bolden, and to some degree Jack have made a killing mopping up the exact kind of plays your talking about, yet cam seems to never be in the right place to take advantage. The more he is able to take advantage of easy buckets like that, the more confidence he'll have otherwise, I think.

Yeah, and this is one area in which Barrett is light-years ahead of Reddish. Reddish hasn't really been a good off-ball player. But Barrett is predatory. He's going to do whatever he can to try to get buckets. And that has helped him (and the team) a lot, because those are the efficient buckets he gets in the half-court right now (to go along with transition buckets/fouls, where he is also really efficient). Reddish, as is not uncommon for high-usage players, is seeming to have trouble making himself available as an off-ball player. If he can get to be able to play off Barrett and Williamson more, it'll help his efficiency and the team a bunch.

Troublemaker
01-11-2019, 11:20 AM
I would like Zion to be the usage leader, because he seems to make the "right play" more often than RJ does. RJ is a scorer, and there's nothing wrong with that. He's the best pure scorer on the team. It was nice to see him get 7 assists in the previous game, but he does tend to force up shots more often than I think we would all prefer. This is nitpicking, because he's incredible at drawing contact and getting to foul line, which is a huge plus for the team, and is a very important part of his game.

Zion doesn't ever seem to force the issue though. It just seems like every time he gets the ball, he either scores easily or makes a great pass to an open teammate, because he draws the entire defense to him when he gets inside. He really is a phenomenal passer with point guard-like vision. So while RJ (and Cam) should still get a good number of opportunities to create with the ball in their hands, I agree the team would become even more efficient offensively with Zion being the focal point, and everyone else playing off of him. I'm with you on RJ pushing him for usage, and making it more like 1A and 1B though, instead of a clear #1/#2.

While I agree with making Zion the #1 option, it should be noted that RJ has a lower turnover rate (14.1% to 16.3%) and a higher assist rate (23.2% to 16.9%). I don't think decision-making is the key difference between the two. It's really just that because of Zion's one-of-a-kind body and athleticism (and great touch), when he goes up for a shot in a crowd, he finishes much more often than RJ (or really anyone in that situation). Zion is one of the great finishers the college game has ever seen; he'd be a great finisher even if he never dunked.

I've not seen the following comparison yet because of their difference in body types, but when Zion goes overall #1, the team that drafts him will be hoping that Zion eventually grows into an MVP candidate by producing similarly to how Giannis does things. Giannis is a dominant finisher around the rim, and he uses the threat of his drives and finishing to playmake for his teammates. Giannis has also grown into a great defender but is still working on his outside shooting. That sounds like the formula for how Zion becomes an NBA superstar as well.

dukelifer
01-11-2019, 12:00 PM
While I agree with making Zion the #1 option, it should be noted that RJ has a lower turnover rate (14.1% to 16.3%) and a higher assist rate (23.2% to 16.9%). I don't think decision-making is the key difference between the two. It's really just that because of Zion's one-of-a-kind body and athleticism (and great touch), when he goes up for a shot in a crowd, he finishes much more often than RJ (or really anyone in that situation). Zion is one of the great finishers the college game has ever seen; he'd be a great finisher even if he never dunked.

I've not seen the following comparison yet because of their difference in body types, but when Zion goes overall #1, the team that drafts him will be hoping that Zion eventually grows into an MVP candidate by producing similarly to how Giannis does things. Giannis is a dominant finisher around the rim, and he uses the threat of his drives and finishing to playmake for his teammates. Giannis has also grown into a great defender but is still working on his outside shooting. That sounds like the formula for how Zion becomes an NBA superstar as well.

Zion has the most amazing underhand scoop I have seen in college ball. He has mastered that shot. I think that he could probably score or get fouled almost every time he touches the ball and if they tripled teamed him- he will make the right decision. The combination of being very wide, strong and an extraordinary leaper makes him extremely difficult to manage at this level and maybe the next. The extended scoop (which takes great strength and control) is his signature shot.

Jeffrey
01-11-2019, 12:16 PM
The extended scoop (which takes great strength and control) is his signature shot.

IMO, it's the 360 dunk.

Reddevil
01-11-2019, 12:41 PM
IMO, it's the 360 dunk.

Or maybe the tomahawk dunk. Will FL St. appreciate it though? Oooooh oh OOOahoooh OOOahooh OH NO!

azzefkram
01-11-2019, 01:16 PM
While I agree with making Zion the #1 option, it should be noted that RJ has a lower turnover rate (14.1% to 16.3%) and a higher assist rate (23.2% to 16.9%). I don't think decision-making is the key difference between the two.

The difference is less pronounced if you look at KPom Tier A+B. RJ has a higher TO (15.9 vs 15.3) and a higher A (15.4 vs 13.3). RJ's decision making has been a tad suspect in Duke's higher profile games. That being said he has looked markedly better during our 2 league games so far.

kAzE
01-11-2019, 01:24 PM
While I agree with making Zion the #1 option, it should be noted that RJ has a lower turnover rate (14.1% to 16.3%) and a higher assist rate (23.2% to 16.9%). I don't think decision-making is the key difference between the two. It's really just that because of Zion's one-of-a-kind body and athleticism (and great touch), when he goes up for a shot in a crowd, he finishes much more often than RJ (or really anyone in that situation). Zion is one of the great finishers the college game has ever seen; he'd be a great finisher even if he never dunked.

I've not seen the following comparison yet because of their difference in body types, but when Zion goes overall #1, the team that drafts him will be hoping that Zion eventually grows into an MVP candidate by producing similarly to how Giannis does things. Giannis is a dominant finisher around the rim, and he uses the threat of his drives and finishing to playmake for his teammates. Giannis has also grown into a great defender but is still working on his outside shooting. That sounds like the formula for how Zion becomes an NBA superstar as well.


The difference is less pronounced if you look at KPom Tier A+B. RJ has a higher TO (15.9 vs 15.3) and a higher A (15.4 vs 13.3). RJ's decision making has been a tad suspect in Duke's higher profile games. That being said he has looked markedly better during our 2 league games so far.

I'd also add that knowing your body type and what you can and can't do is part of decision making. Zion can play through contact much more easily, so taking it to the hole against 2 defenders is not as bad a decision as it can be for RJ sometimes. RJ is good at playing through contact, too, just not at Zion's level . . .

And I think maybe it's still too early to draw conclusions from stats through 14 games. For example, last game, Zion had 5 assists and 4 turnovers, but 2 of those turnovers should have been easy assists. 1 was a bounce pass to Jordan on a fast break that should have been a layup, but Jordan tripped over something and fell down. The other one was a wide open dunk for Javin where Javin just didn't anticipate the pass coming at all.

dukelifer
01-11-2019, 02:07 PM
IMO, it's the 360 dunk.

Except that he will get many opportunities for the scoop and very few for the 360.

HereBeforeCoachK
01-11-2019, 05:55 PM
I'd also add that knowing your body type and what you can and can't do is part of decision making. Zion can play through contact much more easily, so taking it to the hole against 2 defenders is not as bad a decision as it can be for RJ sometimes. RJ is good at playing through contact, too, just not at Zion's level .

It's not so much playing through contact...as it is rendering contact irrelevant.....;)

Jeffrey
01-11-2019, 06:53 PM
Except that he will get many opportunities for the scoop and very few for the 360.

Jeffrey math...... one 360 vs. UNC > one hundred scoops vs. non-UNC teams.

jimmymax
01-11-2019, 08:47 PM
Apologies, while I guess it's a "real stat" I kinda made it up, needlessly, to stir the pot of this thread. Once again, typed "humor" doesn't translate well online...


Is that a real stat? I've never seen it tracked before. What does a measure of block-to-turnover ratio tell us about a player? Because it kind of seems like two cherry-picked metrics that don't have a lot to do with each other.

You probably could have made a clearer point by looking at steals-to-turnover ratio--that would give a rough estimate of the impact a player is having on the number of Duke possessions. Jack doesn't get many steals (15 so far) but also doesn't turn the ball over (only 7), for a ratio of 2.14:1. On the other side, Cam has generated a lot of steals (28, second on the team) but is leading the team in turnovers (42), for a ratio of 0.66:1. That's probably a more telling stat for the point you were trying to make.

But that doesn't tell the whole story, because turnovers are impacted by usage. Jack is a role player whose function in the offense is limited to catch-and-shoot. And he's been great at that! Yay! But Cam has shown some ability to do more, and having him as another person who can create shots is very valuable. So far, his efforts to create off the dribble have resulted in more turnovers, but I'm hoping he can get those turnovers down as the season progresses.

I remain convinced it is in the best long-term interest of the team to continue starting Cam Reddish, who mind you, is a very good basketball player. Especially as long as we keep wining most games by 20+.

But by all means, this is the internet, so let's shine a spotlight on one of the few disappointing developments in this season so far.

duketaylor
01-11-2019, 09:27 PM
He could've started over...

who else was a great 6th man off the bench, even if worthy of being a started. I thought finishing is what counts.

Bobby Jones was a 6th man, correct?

Gotta trust the GOAT!!

tbyers11
01-12-2019, 04:23 PM
Maybe we lock this now?

killerleft
01-12-2019, 04:24 PM
Let's hold off?:)

timmy c
01-12-2019, 04:24 PM
How do you like Cam now???

scottdude8
01-12-2019, 04:24 PM
Ummm... I think we can close this thread now? ;)

BLPOG
01-12-2019, 04:24 PM
ahem

proelitedota
01-12-2019, 04:25 PM
At no point.

Dukehk
01-12-2019, 04:27 PM
#camfam

dalmatians98
01-12-2019, 04:27 PM
IBTL

So happy for Cam!

ChillinDuke
01-12-2019, 04:30 PM
Oh, this thread.

- Chillin

mgtr
01-12-2019, 04:34 PM
Feel great that Cam proved how good he is, and what a time to prove it!

porkpa
01-12-2019, 04:34 PM
Cam provided the answer.

JamminJoe
01-12-2019, 04:34 PM
Trust in K...yoohooo!!!!

Bluedevil114
01-12-2019, 04:36 PM
That reverse layup early in the first half was sick. So happy for Cam. Coaches knew they were all going to converge on Barrett. Problem is we had two hot players so fake it to RJ and let Cam take the shot to win the game. Guess what? He made it. Great win today.

Steven43
01-12-2019, 04:43 PM
How do you like Cam now???
Oh my goodness, don’t y’all realize that this thread — which Cameron Reddish has been reading obsessively since 11:22 AM on January 9 — is what created the spark that lit a fire under his Duke Basketball shorts?

uh_no
01-12-2019, 04:49 PM
"yo cam....they talkin smack bout you on DBR" -Z

"swish" -Cam

kAzE
01-12-2019, 04:50 PM
Lock this thread up, we're done here.

Steven43
01-12-2019, 05:17 PM
"yo cam...they talkin smack bout you on DBR" -Z

"swish" -Cam

Haha, I can actually picture that. Well done.

OZZIE4DUKE
01-12-2019, 05:20 PM
Lock it up! Lock it up! Build a wall around it! Get carolina to pay for it! :cool:http://www.crazietalk.net/ourhouse/images/smilies/devil9f.gif

timmy c
01-12-2019, 05:24 PM
One-syllable answer: No.

Rsvman nailed it like cam's last second jumper!

cato
01-12-2019, 05:32 PM
Cam MF Reddish! Game winning three in Tallahassee is big time stuff.

DDMF

HereBeforeCoachK
01-12-2019, 06:03 PM
Lock this thread up, we're done here.

Pretty much done from the get go. By my very quick very unofficial tally, only the OP and one other thought this was worth even discussing....

Dukehky
01-12-2019, 06:06 PM
I think K deserves a LOT of credit for not starting Jack during Cam's slump. White was definitively better for long stretches of the year, but K has been pretty consistent with how he's going to coach Cam. he's the type of kid that needs to be reassured, especially when he's still playing hard and it's not going his way on offense. I feel like benching him would have destroyed his confidence. \

Cam's knock was that he doesn't play hard all the time. I haven't seen him not play hard for one second this year. What a great kid.

Steven43
01-12-2019, 06:11 PM
There have been many things discussed in this thread other than whether Cam or Jack should start. These things often go in unexpected directions. It’s just Duke fans giving opinions, sometimes deeply-felt, other times just a casual throw away comment or two. No big deal either way.

ncexnyc
01-12-2019, 06:44 PM
If this thread was what motivated Cam to have his monster game, can we please start one for AOC.

dukelifer
01-12-2019, 07:56 PM
If this thread was what motivated Cam to have his monster game, can we please start one for AOC.

Time to stop Baker's redshirt?

lotusland
01-13-2019, 06:34 AM
If this thread was what motivated Cam to have his monster game, can we please start one for AOC.

Should Buckmire get AOC’s minutes?

HereBeforeCoachK
01-13-2019, 09:46 AM
should buckmire get aoc’s minutes?

iswydt.......;)

elvis14
01-13-2019, 10:27 AM
Mods, can we get this thread closed now? Makes us look stupid to have it show up on the first page. <-- ironic since this response will move it to the top of page 1

BluDvlsN1
01-13-2019, 04:34 PM
Cam put this question to rest yesterday.

Jacks captain leadership and all around court contributions
are significant and important to this team.

There are examples galore in basketball history of the value of a strong 6th man
or more in AOC's case, for having a boost off the bench.

We have the pieces to be solid 8 deep rotation, depending on
game time situations and match ups.

And yes I agree, it's time to close this thread.

curtis325
01-13-2019, 07:09 PM
At What Point Should Coach K Start Jack Over Cam?

The answer to the question was and remains:

NEVER.

Steven43
01-13-2019, 07:29 PM
Mods, can we get this thread closed now? Makes us look stupid to have it show up on the first page. <-- ironic since this response will move it to the top of page 1
I loved the response from whichever mod inserted the “ironic” comment. Had me laughing heartily. Kudos.

elvis14
01-14-2019, 08:16 AM
I loved the response from whichever mod inserted the “ironic” comment. Had me laughing heartily. Kudos.

I put the ironic part in myself. And here I am again bumping this to the top making us all look like idiots.

TruBlu
01-14-2019, 08:23 AM
I put the ironic part in myself. And here I am again bumping this to the top making us all look like idiots.

Change your username to “Britany” ... Oops, I did it again.

JasonEvans
01-14-2019, 08:23 AM
With many people asking the mods to lock this thread, I have decided to comply. If you have a compelling case for keeping it open and adding to the content of the thread, please PM me and I will consider it, but... for now...this thread is going bye bye.