Phase III - the First Part of the ACC Season

[sagegrouse]

Phase III, after two weeks without hoops, takes on the first six games of the ACC season, beginning with Clemson at home on Saturday, January 5. We, Jason Evans and Sage, have about a dozen topics and questions on each topic. And we look forward to your views.

Health. Duke runs an up-tempo offense, triggered by steals, blocks and rebounds from a very aggressive defense. Can we continue at such a pace and effort without injuries? Assemble your good luck charms – we are hoping to stay healthy. It is worth noting that Duke’s reliance on freshmen makes the health question particularly relevant. The volume of games and practices in college versus the high school level is a significant change for freshmen. In past seasons we have generally seen the “freshman fatigue” bug bite players as we enter the middle of the ACC season. We don’t expect this to be a major concern during this phase of the year, but it is something to keep an eye upon.

The ACC Season Arrives. The schedule will send Duke to hostile arenas and welcome teams to Cameron that have played here before. In conference play it is said there is higher intensity and that teams are far more familiar with each other. Only partially true with Duke, as we turn our lineup over every year, by sending our best freshman to the NBA. Not funny, we know, but there’s something to it. Our first test, Clemson at Cameron, brings a Brad Brownell team that is surely eager for the challenge. Clemson came into the season with high hopes and the Tigers have been somewhat disappointing thus far. Obviously, a game with Duke presents a major chance for teams to make a name for themselves.

Can this Duke team play well on the road? Our Phase III road tests are at Wake Forest, Florida State and Pitt. Again, we return to the freshman theme as we look at road games. Despite much experience playing in high school all-star games and for national teams, despite playing on national TV and in high-pressure games already this season, Duke’s freshmen have never seen anything like an ACC road game. Getting Wake and Pitt, who appear to be among the worst teams in the conference, as early road tests is a nice way to dip your toe into the ocean, but the game at FSU will be a different test. Ninth-ranked Florida State is always a tough test (we lost there in 2017). Playing one of the top teams in the country on the road in just our third ACC contest, we would not be at all surprised to see this Duke team suffer its second defeat of the season. And, it is worth noting that road games have been a problem for recent Duke teams who only have a 17-14 road record in the past three seasons. Ah, yes – the controversial AP voter Graham Couch! We’ll see if he has a point in penalizing teams who haven’t played true road games. If nothing else, Duke can look forward to finally appearing on Couch’s AP ballot after the game with Wake.

The Lineup. Duke’s lineup appears set – R.J., Zion, Cam, and Tre – and now Javin DeLaurier with the starting position over Marques Bolden, who will still see substantial minutes. Super-sub Jack White has earned starter minutes with his strong play, and Alex O’Connell has played effectively in his regular appearances on the court. Jordan Goldwire has been a capable sub for Tre Jones and earned playing time that will help in the future. But, we all know that coach K loves to tighten his rotation as the season moves along. White will continue to get significant minutes. It seems highly likely that Bolden will play a rim-protecting role against opponents who are not going small, but one thing to watch during this phase of the season is how much O’Connell and Goldwire play. While we do not expect them to disappear from boxscores, O’Connell could post fewer than double-digit minutes in ACC games and for Goldwire may ride the bench in really competitive games.

Duke Shooting. While our overall shooting percentage of 49 percent is in line with the past four years, three-point shooting (32 percent) is lagging and free-throw shooting (68 percent), while outstanding in the two most recent games, is below the marks of the last four years. Will Duke shooting improve? Much of the answer likely depends upon Cameron Reddish, who is the team’s volume three-point shooter. Sixty-three percent of his shots are from three-point range. He comes into this phase in a fairly significant slump, having hit just five of his past 27 threes. He came into Duke as a dynamic threat from long range, and the fact that he keeps on shooting (he has at least four 3FGA in every game) tells us that he knows he can hit that shot. He is currently shooting 35 percent from three, but he sure looks like someone who is a 40+ percent shooter from long range. Perhaps his tough stretch will precede a stretch of games where he is hitting everything. Then there’s the lesson of Luke Kennard’s freshman year, when he inexplicably hit just 32 percent of his threes and then shot a scorching 44 percent from three as a sophomore. While the next phase of the season does not appear to be super difficult, we will be keeping a close eye on Cam to see if his recent shooting woes disappear. Shooting issues, as the season progresses, will be tested by what will be changes to…

Opponents’ Defenses. With limited outside shooting and very aggressive drives to the basket by R.J. and Zion (and Cam and others), we expect every ACC opponent to pack their defense inside – giving Duke the outside shots and looking to draw charging fouls on drives. Can Duke provide the effective outside shooting needed to punish the other teams for the zones and pack-line defense we will surely see? It will also be interesting to see how effective those zones and sagging man defenses can be against the Duke drivers. It is not like packing it in against this Duke team is some new defensive theory. Teams have been trying to stop us from getting to the rim since the trip to Canada. Thus far, no one has really been able to do it all that effectively except for maybe Texas Tech, a team widely considered to be among the top few defensive teams in the land. It is one thing to say “pack it in and we can stop RJ and Zion,” but it is a whole different thing to actually succeed at doing that. Oh, and part and parcel with the defensive strategy is the question of whether it leads to foul trouble for Duke. The Texas Tech game showed what can happen when you pick up too many offensive fouls. We would be perfectly happy if we never again have to test whether Duke can come from behind and win with Zion DQ’d by offensive fouls.

Before turning to questions about each of our players, we offer the opinion that this Duke team may be as close to a “position-less team” as one is likely to see in college. All of our starters run the court really well, and all are quick defenders who seem to grasp the concept of team defense.

R.J. Barrett is the number one high school player from 2018 and the MVP of the FIBA under-19 championships at the age of 17 years, one month. R.J. is clearly the leader of the team on the floor, but can he up his game to match the (unreasonable) expectations of many Duke fans? R.J. is averaging 23.8 PPG on shooting of 46 percent overall, with 32 percent from three and 65 percent on FT’s. We don’t know if R.J. is taking too many shots, but we will be happy if he makes a higher percentage. Of course, we recognize that one reason his percentage is low is because the team asks him to take the difficult shots. Duke’s strategy is often to put the ball in RJ’s hands and get out of the way.

Zion Williamson? What can we say? Except to ask if he will continue as a one-of-a-kind player? In our humble (yeah, right!) opinion, no one like him has ever played the game. Will ACC opponents find some answers in controlling Zion?

Cam Reddish. We have talked about his shooting, but he is an all-around player: long, quick and capable in defense. He also has the most potential for improved play among our “big four.” Will Cam show his true capabilities as the season progresses?

Tre Jones is a revelation. We had high expectations, but he has generally exceeded them with his passing, driving ability and defense. Can his high level of play continue? And, then again, it’s a long season and he is playing a ton of minutes. It would be great to have other players, not just Jordan, share the burden of running the point, especially on a team that seems so versatile.

Javin DeLaurier. Javin has been an effective defender and has scored well from close range. His fouling is a problem – one foul per six minutes of playing time – which is his main handicap. One certainly can’t argue with his shot selection, given that he is making 86 percent of his shots – except maybe that he needs to take more shots.

Marques Bolden. Marques, while speedy for his size, is less well-suited to a switching defense, not having the mobility of the other key players. Moreover, his strength in blocking shots seem to affect his rebounding, which is very low for a player of his size and mobility. Marques is a mystery – will he show that he can play a key role on this exceptional Duke team?

Jack White has been an outstanding player off the bench, earning starter’s minutes (25 MPG) and being effective in many phases of the game. To our mind, his nose for the ball is his most valuable contribution, with 6.8 rebounds per game, although we are also pleased with his shooting and defense. As with Zion and Tre, our question is – can he keep playing at such a high level?

We can go on (and on and on), but we would like to hear from you.

[Kedsy]

Will Duke shooting improve? Much of the answer likely depends upon Cameron Reddish, who is the team’s volume three-point shooter. Sixty-three percent of his shots are from three-point range. He comes into this phase in a fairly significant slump, having hit just five of his past 27 threes. He came into Duke as a dynamic threat from long range, and the fact that he keeps on shooting (he has at least four 3FGA in every game) tells us that he knows he can hit that shot. He is currently shooting 35 percent from three, but he sure looks like someone who is a 40+ percent shooter from long range. Perhaps his tough stretch will precede a stretch of games where he is hitting everything. Then there’s the lesson of Luke Kennard’s freshman year, when he inexplicably hit just 32 percent of his threes and then shot a scorching 44 percent from three as a sophomore.

Nice job, guys. I just wanted to mention that before Cam's recent 5 for 27 slump from three, he hit 26 for his first 60 college three-pointers (43.3%). This sort of distinguishes him from Kennard, who went 11 for his first 44 college threes (25%) before bringing it up a little to finish with a still-dismal 32% three pct. I know some people out there don't believe in "streaky" shooters, but I do and it may be that Cam is one. Of course the danger of having your main shooter be streaky is that sometimes they go on, e.g., 5 for 27 cold streaks and you just have to hope it's not during the ACC and/or NCAA tournaments. For now, let's just hope he starts heating up again.

[MarkD83]

I am less concerned about Duke's shooting and the opponent's defense since this Duke team's DNA appears to be good / great mtm defense and transition baskets.

This is a welcome change at this point compared to the previous 4-5 teams. There have been times where Duke's defense has been suffocating and I would like that to continue. The best illustration of that commitment to defense is actually several plays that stick out from Cam. Despite not shooting well he has had several back court steals after Duke's offensive possessions that have lead to lay-ups. So despite not shooting well he (and the rest of the team) know that they can always play great D.

[Bob Green]

Good job with the Phase post Sage/Jason!




Tre Jones is a revelation. We had high expectations, but he has generally exceeded them with his passing, driving ability and defense. Can his high level of play continue? And, then again, it’s a long season and he is playing a ton of minutes. It would be great to have other players, not just Jordan, share the burden of running the point, especially on a team that seems so versatile.



Tre Jones has been our Most Outstanding Player so far this season. Can he keep up his high performance level against ACC point guards? The question will be answered starting tonight against Clemson and their dynamic backcourt duo of Marcquise Reed and Shelton Mitchell.

Jones key stats:

Assists per Game: 5.6
Steals per Game: 2.2
Turnovers per Game: 1.1

If Jones continues his high performance level as a lock down defender and ball distributor, Duke will win a lot of ACC games.

[Troublemaker]

Great Phase Post, sage and Jason!



Opponents’ Defenses. With limited outside shooting and very aggressive drives to the basket by R.J. and Zion (and Cam and others), we expect every ACC opponent to pack their defense inside – giving Duke the outside shots and looking to draw charging fouls on drives. Can Duke provide the effective outside shooting needed to punish the other teams for the zones and pack-line defense we will surely see? It will also be interesting to see how effective those zones and sagging man defenses can be against the Duke drivers. It is not like packing it in against this Duke team is some new defensive theory. Teams have been trying to stop us from getting to the rim since the trip to Canada. Thus far, no one has really been able to do it all that effectively except for maybe Texas Tech, a team widely considered to be among the top few defensive teams in the land. It is one thing to say “pack it in and we can stop RJ and Zion,” but it is a whole different thing to actually succeed at doing that. Oh, and part and parcel with the defensive strategy is the question of whether it leads to foul trouble for Duke. The Texas Tech game showed what can happen when you pick up too many offensive fouls. We would be perfectly happy if we never again have to test whether Duke can come from behind and win with Zion DQ’d by offensive fouls.

Duke is largely to blame for allowing the packed-in or "gapping" defenses to succeed, and I'm not talking about poor shooting (although that of course contributes). We need to find a multiple-drive-and-kick rhythm where, instead of relying on our first penetration to score, we kick out, reverse the ball, what have-you, and rely on third and fourth penetrations to score. If this Duke team moves the ball side to side (thus moving the defense, leading to positional mistakes) and waits for a fourth penetration to attack, we will score or get fouled every time.

To be fair, I think we've been mostly focusing on getting the defense to be top-notch, but I suspect the coaches have turned to fixing the offense over winter break.

Finally, playing Jack at the 4 and Zion at the 5 will unzip any defense. We need to play the death lineup more often.



We don’t know if R.J. is taking too many shots, but we will be happy if he makes a higher percentage.


RJ definitely has been taking too many shots but it's in service of getting him reps to learn to become more efficient.

There WILL be a moment in time this season (and maybe it comes as early as today) when Duke fans exclaim, "Ah ha! RJ gets it now and knows how to play at this level," and when he reaches this light-bulb moment, he'll play at an All-American level the rest of the season.

The Duke coaches know what they're doing with RJ here.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Great Phase Post, sage and Jason!

Finally, playing Jack at the 4 and Zion at the 5 will unzip any defense. We need to play the death lineup more often.

RJ definitely has been taking too many shots but it's in service of getting him reps to learn to become more efficient.

There WILL be a moment in time this season (and maybe it comes as early as today) when Duke fans exclaim, "Ah ha! RJ gets it now and knows how to play at this level," and when he reaches this light-bulb moment, he'll play at an All-American level the rest of the season.

The Duke coaches know what they're doing with RJ here.

Agree with the "death lineup" analysis....has several benefits, including maxing out the shot blocking of Zion while giving Jack more catch and shoot 3 looks. Jack can flat out shoot - just needs more game reps. Hit three big time 3's against TT (yes, one was called off due to foul on RJ, but when Jack shot it, he didn't know that so it was under game pressure, and it went in).

As for your RJ comments: I agree, and I think this ties into running the offense thru Zion - because he so naturally attracts all the eyeballs. This will give RJ fewer shots but more great looks IMO...I think if Zion gets about 3-4-5more shots per game and RJ maybe 3-4-5 less, both will score more. I think it will open up opportunities for everybody.

[dukelifer]

Great Phase Post, sage and Jason!



Duke is largely to blame for allowing the packed-in or "gapping" defenses to succeed, and I'm not talking about poor shooting (although that of course contributes). We need to find a multiple-drive-and-kick rhythm where, instead of relying on our first penetration to score, we kick out, reverse the ball, what have-you, and rely on third and fourth penetrations to score. If this Duke team moves the ball side to side (thus moving the defense, leading to positional mistakes) and waits for a fourth penetration to attack, we will score or get fouled every time.

To be fair, I think we've been mostly focusing on getting the defense to be top-notch, but I suspect the coaches have turned to fixing the offense over winter break.

Finally, playing Jack at the 4 and Zion at the 5 will unzip any defense. We need to play the death lineup more often.



RJ definitely has been taking too many shots but it's in service of getting him reps to learn to become more efficient.

There WILL be a moment in time this season (and maybe it comes as early as today) when Duke fans exclaim, "Ah ha! RJ gets it now and knows how to play at this level," and when he reaches this light-bulb moment, he'll play at an All-American level the rest of the season.

The Duke coaches know what they're doing with RJ here.
Drive and kick is key and a lot of this will be easier if Cam shoots more reliably. If Cam continues to struggle- Jack is next man up. RJ is a much better shooter when his feet are set so he is an option as well. I agree that this will be a process throughout the season and eventually it will click.

[DukieInBrasil]

Agree with the "death lineup" analysis...has several benefits, including maxing out the shot blocking of Zion while giving Jack more catch and shoot 3 looks. Jack can flat out shoot - just needs more game reps. Hit three big time 3's against TT (yes, one was called off due to foul on RJ, but when Jack shot it, he didn't know that so it was under game pressure, and it went in).

As for your RJ comments: I agree, and I think this ties into running the offense thru Zion - because he so naturally attracts all the eyeballs. This will give RJ fewer shots but more great looks IMO...I think if Zion gets about 3-4-5more shots per game and RJ maybe 3-4-5 less, both will score more. I think it will open up opportunities for everybody.

i agree, if RJ shoots fewer overall shots, but more of those are better quality looks, he could very well score more. If he replaces the forced shots against multiple defenders with passes to open players for scores it may also get teams to give him more space to get better shots. I'm sure some of those passes would end up in Zion's hands too. Also, if he replaces some of those out of rhythm 3s/long jumpers with drives to kick out to shooters, he may end up getting better shots too, via Oboards or give-n-go type passes.
Anyway, better ball movement and better shot selection could lead to more scoring, who knew?

[MChambers]

To be fair, I think we've been mostly focusing on getting the defense to be top-notch, but I suspect the coaches have turned to fixing the offense over winter break.

Finally, playing Jack at the 4 and Zion at the 5 will unzip any defense. We need to play the death lineup more often.

Tre said they had focused on half court offense over the break, as you suspected (and I think predicted in another thread).

[Saratoga2]

I believe three point shooters are born more than made. Certainly practice helps with results but bad form catches up with those who don't adjust or learn. As others have said, Jack has nice form when catching and shooting from the corner and we need to drive and dish to him more often. In my opinion, AOC also has good form but as yet in his career, he has often deferred to others and not taken the shot. Will that change? I doubt it, but maybe next year his confidence level will improve. In my opinion, Cam doesn't have the best form as he shoots from out front. His height still allows him to get the ball off, but we really haven't seen the kind of results a top three point shooter can deliver. As said in the entry, he has the most room for improvement of the big four freshmen.

We get a lot of points off turnovers and the break. ACC guards may be more difficult to turnover and in the halfcourt, teams will pack it inside on defense as our outside shooting has been very marginal and we have tended to pick up charging fouls. I am not to concerned about Clemson at home and think our first big test with be Fla State on the road. Looking forward to this phase and will not be disappointed if we lose a couple along the way.

[MChambers]

Great job, Sage and Jason ("we").

[lotusland]

Agree with the "death lineup" analysis...has several benefits, including maxing out the shot blocking of Zion while giving Jack more catch and shoot 3 looks. Jack can flat out shoot - just needs more game reps. Hit three big time 3's against TT (yes, one was called off due to foul on RJ, but when Jack shot it, he didn't know that so it was under game pressure, and it went in).

As for your RJ comments: I agree, and I think this ties into running the offense thru Zion - because he so naturally attracts all the eyeballs. This will give RJ fewer shots but more great looks IMO...I think if Zion gets about 3-4-5more shots per game and RJ maybe 3-4-5 less, both will score more. I think it will open up opportunities for everybody.

I agree that Duke should find Jack for more catch and shoot threes and that Jack can hit those open shots but Jack does not shoot at all unless he’s left completely unguarded. He doesn’t shoot step back 3s, he doesn’t come off screens and he does shot fake, slide over then shoot. He’s even passed up open 3s on more than one occasion. So he’s a good option when he’s standing alone at the three point line and Duke can probably probably generate a couple more good looks per game for Jack but probably the best outcome is that the opponent will stop leaving him unguarded and open up the lane a little more for penetration. AOC is a more willing shooter and has a much quicker release but he doesn’t add the rebounding and defense that Jack brings.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I agree that Duke should find Jack for more catch and shoot threes and that Jack can hit those open shots but Jack does not shoot at all unless he’s left completely unguarded. He doesn’t shoot step back 3s, he doesn’t come off screens and he does shot fake, slide over then shoot. He’s even passed up open 3s on more than one occasion. So he’s a good option when he’s standing alone at the three point line and Duke can probably probably generate a couple more good looks per game for Jack but probably the best outcome is that the opponent will stop leaving him unguarded and open up the lane a little more for penetration. AOC is a more willing shooter and has a much quicker release but he doesn’t add the rebounding and defense that Jack brings.

I'm not convinced Duke has any players who can shoot the step back three reliably.With the other talents on this team, I don't think they need it....as long as they keep up the D, the slashing, and making a few extra passes so that most of their 3s can be the stand still variety. As for Jack's shot selection, he has passed up a few open looks....and then he's taken a few when there was a strong close out....almost as if the bench got on him for passing up the open looks....so I think his selection will continue to improve, and the percentage with it.

[Kedsy]

I just want to point out that our "broken" offense thus far this season is ranked by Pomeroy as the #2 offense in the country.

[MChambers]

I just want to point out that our "broken" offense thus far this season is ranked by Pomeroy as the #2 offense in the country.

To be fair, I think folks are questioning the half court offense, not the fast break offense.

[sagegrouse]

There's an ESPN+ article up on how to stop Duke. A couple of the quotes at the end sum it up. Here's one: 'As one coach said: "They basically line up against you and say, 'We're better. We've got three of the top five picks and you don't.'"'

[HereBeforeCoachK]

There's an ESPN+ article up on how to stop Duke. A couple of the quotes at the end sum it up. Here's one: 'As one coach said: "They basically line up against you and say, 'We're better. We've got three of the top five picks and you don't.'"'

I don't have ESPN+ and have little motivation to get it...so if you wanted to cut and paste some of the good parts - I'd be in your debt.....:cool:

[Bob Green]

I don't have ESPN+ and have little motivation to get it...so if you wanted to cut and paste some of the good parts - I'd be in your debt....:cool:

I draw your attention to the Decorum & Posting Guidelines:

https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?21833-Decorum-amp-Posting-Guidelines-(Please-read-before-posting!)


Copyright Infringement. It's illegal. In addition to the poster who posted the information, DBR might be held accountable for posts that violate copyrights. To avoid copyright infringement, summarize the main point of the article in a few sentences, perhaps add a short quote, and post a link to it. Note that “article” refers to any text, including (but not limited to) articles, books, blogs, and posts on other message boards.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I draw your attention to the Decorum & Posting Guidelines:

https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?21833-Decorum-amp-Posting-Guidelines-(Please-read-before-posting!)

(in other words, helpful advice: ask via PM rather than in the thread)

[Native]

RJ definitely has been taking too many shots but it's in service of getting him reps to learn to become more efficient.

There WILL be a moment in time this season (and maybe it comes as early as today) when Duke fans exclaim, "Ah ha! RJ gets it now and knows how to play at this level," and when he reaches this light-bulb moment, he'll play at an All-American level the rest of the season.

The Duke coaches know what they're doing with RJ here.

See also: Tatum, Jayson.

[MChambers]

There's an ESPN+ article up on how to stop Duke. A couple of the quotes at the end sum it up. Here's one: 'As one coach said: "They basically line up against you and say, 'We're better. We've got three of the top five picks and you don't.'"'

True enough, but Duke also puts pressure on the other team, both on offense and defense (especially on defense). Not all coaches would do that.

[whereinthehellami]

Love the phase posts and appreciate the work that goes into them.

Cam was a streaky shooter in HS. And IIRC his HS team never one anything, which is something I always look for with HS recruits. I think that translates to what we are seeing at Duke, when his shot goes away, he kind of goes away until it comes back. To Cam's credit he has stated that is one of these reasons he came to Duke, to be pushed by Coach K.

As others have stated, Cam's form is not ideal for a shooter. I wish he would go more straight up and down, he has a tendency to drift on his shot.

I hope Cam gets hot at the right time.

[Nugget]

I think that translates to what we are seeing at Duke, when his shot goes away, he kind of goes away until it comes back.

I think this is not quite accurate. It seems true of Cam on offense, but not his defense - which I think has been consistently good to very good (other than a few back doors that all of our wings have always periodically given). To me, Cam appears to have been much better than most young players at not letting offensive struggles affect his effort and engagement on defense.

[jv001]

I think this is not quite accurate. It seems true of Cam on offense, but not his defense - which I think has been consistently good to very good (other than a few back doors that all of our wings have always periodically given). To me, Cam appears to have been much better than most young players at not letting offensive struggles affect his effort and engagement on defense.

I would agree with this. Cam has played pretty good defense even though his shot has not been falling. There are some players that can't or won't play hard man2man defense if their shot is not going down. I give Cam credit for keeping his head in the game. GoDuke!

[BandAlum83]

There's an ESPN+ article up on how to stop Duke. A couple of the quotes at the end sum it up. Here's one: 'As one coach said: "They basically line up against you and say, 'We're better. We've got three of the top five picks and you don't.'"'

I doubt that would sit well with the GOAT and the coaching team. It's not like he's throwing a ball out onto the playground court and saying "go play!"

That is mighty condescending. Of course, I would need to see the full context.

[sagegrouse]

I doubt that would sit well with the GOAT and the coaching team. It's not like he's throwing a ball out onto the playground court and saying "go play!"

That is mighty condescending. Of course, I would need to see the full context.

The preceding paras. provided background that Duke's offense was fairly straightforward.

[MChambers]

The preceding paras. provided background that Duke's offense was fairly straightforward.

Why do something complicated with this talent? In any event, I bet we see more wrinkles as the season progresses.

[lotusland]

I'm not convinced Duke has any players who can shoot the step back three reliably.With the other talents on this team, I don't think they need it...as long as they keep up the D, the slashing, and making a few extra passes so that most of their 3s can be the stand still variety. As for Jack's shot selection, he has passed up a few open looks...and then he's taken a few when there was a strong close out...almost as if the bench got on him for passing up the open looks...so I think his selection will continue to improve, and the percentage with it.

Jack was looking for his shot and calling for the ball tonight. He really looked confident hitting 3-5 in the first half when we needed a boost and 4 on the night.

[JasonEvans]

Is it too late to update our phase post with this question:

Should Jack White be starting over Cam Reddish? Whew... Cam has immense talent but the stench of his performance against Clemson reached me all the way up in Philly tonight.

-Jason "BTW, props to Sage for doing the first draft of the phase post... my role was largely to mix metaphors add then in a bunch of numbers ;) " Evans

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Jack was looking for his shot and calling for the ball tonight. He really looked confident hitting 3-5 in the first half when we needed a boost and 4 on the night.

Yes he did, and I'm pretty sure he shot more 3's tonight than he ever has in a game. And just like the TT game, he was hitting them when no one else was. He' done this now in a big time neutral arena and now a conference home game. Can he do it away from home in the league?

Anyway, that's huge for a team to have a guy who can take the lid off. Now, Cam on the other hand...

[Kedsy]

Yes he did, and I'm pretty sure he shot more 3's tonight than he ever has in a game.

Not quite, but close. He was 4 for 6 from three last night and also had six three-point attempts against Army (2 for 6). So he had as many as he'd ever taken in a game, but not more. He has taken five three-attempts in a game on four other occasions this season.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Not quite, but close. He was 4 for 6 from three last night and also had six three-point attempts against Army (2 for 6). So he had as many as he'd ever taken in a game, but not more. He has taken five three-attempts in a game on four other occasions this season.

Ah, thanks for update....as it turns out, I saw very little of that Army game.

[Kedsy]

In Phase II we discussed Duke's defensive rebounding and how much of a weakness it is for this year's team. Updating that discussion, last night's game against Clemson was our fourth straight game grabbing over 75% of available defensive rebounds. For Duke, that's really good.

We are still getting very poor defensive rebounding from the center position:

DR%
Marques: 10.5%
Javin: 13.2%
Antonio: 7.2%

The all-time worst for a Duke center is 8.0% (by Casey Sanders in 2000-01). Antonio isn't playing enough to challenge that record, but Marques is still on pace for the 2nd-worst Duke defensive rebounding center of all-time.

Javin has been in a defensive rebounding slump for several games; his DR% has slipped into unacceptable territory as well.


Our power forwards are making up for the lack of defensive rebounding by our centers:

Zion: 21.6%
Jack: 19.3%


Our wings are doing a decent job at defensive rebounding as well, especially RJ who has a fabulous DR% for a wing:

RJ: 17.0%
AOC: 10.7%
Cam: 10.4%
Justin: 10.4%


Our PGs could be doing better but aren't terrible for PGs:

Jordan: 8.1%
Tre: 7.6%


Overall, our recent performances have moved us up to tied for 222nd in the country (up from south of #300).

[BandAlum83]

In Phase II we discussed Duke's defensive rebounding and how much of a weakness it is for this year's team. Updating that discussion, last night's game against Clemson was our fourth straight game grabbing over 75% of available defensive rebounds. For Duke, that's really good.

We are still getting very poor defensive rebounding from the center position:

DR%
Marques: 10.5%
Javin: 13.2%
Antonio: 7.2%

The all-time worst for a Duke center is 8.0% (by Casey Sanders in 2000-01). Antonio isn't playing enough to challenge that record, but Marques is still on pace for the 2nd-worst Duke defensive rebounding center of all-time.

Javin has been in a defensive rebounding slump for several games; his DR% has slipped into unacceptable territory as well.


Our power forwards are making up for the lack of defensive rebounding by our centers:

Zion: 21.6%
Jack: 19.3%


Our wings are doing a decent job at defensive rebounding as well, especially RJ who has a fabulous DR% for a wing:

RJ: 17.0%
AOC: 10.7%
Cam: 10.4%
Justin: 10.4%


Our PGs could be doing better but aren't terrible for PGs:

Jordan: 8.1%
Tre: 7.6%


Overall, our recent performances have moved us up to tied for 222nd in the country (up from south of #300).

Great stuff, as always, Kedsy!

Question, I have seen several times that RJs stats are being compared to a wing category, as this post does. With this positionless style we are playing, does it limit the value of or ability to make such comparisons?

[Kedsy]

Great stuff, as always, Kedsy!

Question, I have seen several times that RJs stats are being compared to a wing category, as this post does. With this positionless style we are playing, does it limit the value of or ability to make such comparisons?

When it comes to rebounding, I don't think so. Or defense (since the whole concept of "positionless style" is almost exclusively about offense; you can say you don't play any particular position, but if you always guard the other team's center, you're playing center on defense). Or especially defensive rebounding, which is what my post was about. If you're guarding guys who play primarily on the perimeter, you're generally not going to be in as good a position to rebound as you would if you guarded guys who played primarily inside. In many cases, you can tell what position a guy plays just by looking at his DR%, with some outliers (like Marques, who has been defensively rebounding like a guard, and RJ, who has been defensively rebounding like a power forward).

[BandAlum83]

When it comes to rebounding, I don't think so. Or defense (since the whole concept of "positionless style" is almost exclusively about offense; you can say you don't play any particular position, but if you always guard the other team's center, you're playing center on defense). Or especially defensive rebounding, which is what my post was about. If you're guarding guys who play primarily on the perimeter, you're generally not going to be in as good a position to rebound as you would if you guarded guys who played primarily inside. In many cases, you can tell what position a guy plays just by looking at his DR%, with some outliers (like Marques, who has been defensively rebounding like a guard, and RJ, who has been defensively rebounding like a power forward).

Makes total sense. Thanks!

[JasonEvans]

T-rank has our Def Rebounding as 181st in the nation, something upon which we could improve, but not as bad at your stats seem to indicate.

Also, it is worth noting that as a result of our ability to force turnovers, we remain a super efficient defensive team despite the relatively poor defensive rebounding. In fact, of the top 10 teams in defensive efficiency on T-rank, only Michigan and Kansas St. are top 50 at defensive rebounding. Several other elite defensive teams (VCU, Florida, and Texas) join Duke as teams that have below average defensive rebounding despite being top 10 in defensive efficiency. Sorta implies that defensive rebounding is not closely correlated to defensive efficiency.

-Jason "here is the T-rank Def Efficiency page (http://barttorvik.com/trank.php?team=Duke&y=2019&sort=AdjDE#)so you can check my stats ;) " Evans

[Kedsy]

T-rank has our Def Rebounding as 181st in the nation, something upon which we could improve, but not as bad at your stats seem to indicate.

Also, it is worth noting that as a result of our ability to force turnovers, we remain a super efficient defensive team despite the relatively poor defensive rebounding. In fact, of the top 10 teams in defensive efficiency on T-rank, only Michigan and Kansas St. are top 50 at defensive rebounding. Several other elite defensive teams (VCU, Florida, and Texas) join Duke as teams that have below average defensive rebounding despite being top 10 in defensive efficiency. Sorta implies that defensive rebounding is not closely correlated to defensive efficiency.

-Jason "here is the T-rank Def Efficiency page (http://barttorvik.com/trank.php?team=Duke&y=2019&sort=AdjDE#)so you can check my stats ;) " Evans

I haven't had a chance to look; does T-rank show adjusted stats? The rank of #222 is unadjusted (from sports-reference).

[kAzE]

Is it too late to update our phase post with this question:

Should Jack White be starting over Cam Reddish? Whew... Cam has immense talent but the stench of his performance against Clemson reached me all the way up in Philly tonight.

-Jason "BTW, props to Sage for doing the first draft of the phase post... my role was largely to mix metaphors add then in a bunch of numbers ;) " Evans

I think Cam would probably be playing better if he had a more prominent role handling the ball. It's pretty clear that he hasn't yet become comfortable in his current role as more of a spot up shooter and being the 3rd (or even 4th) option as a ball handler. RJ and Zion both demand the ball. I don't think anyone believes Cam should be getting more touches than those two guys, and Tre is an elite point guard who obviously should have the ball in his hands too. It's crazy hard to be #4 in touches when you've been the #1 option your entire life. Every time Cam touches the ball now, he's trying too hard to do something spectacular, because he knows he's not going to get as many touches as he would really like.

It's a tough position to be in, as a dominant scorer, but being the 3rd scoring option. You see this with NBA super teams when they are newly assembled. Chris Bosh and Kevin Love both had a really hard time adjusting to being the 3rd option. I still have a lot of faith in Cam to be able to get back to what he was doing earlier in the year, but there's no question he's really having a tough go of it lately.

I mentioned this before in the previous phase thread, but I wonder if he would be better off coming off the bench, subbing in for RJ or Zion whenever either of them goes out. It would give him more opportunities to handle the ball. We could force feed Cam touches while RJ is resting to get him in a rhythm, and then have him close the game and still play 30+ minutes. Jack is clearly capable of starting and fits wonderfully with those other starters, so I think you could start Javin, Jack, Zion, RJ, and Tre, and close games with Jack, Cam, Zion, RJ, and Tre. I dunno, it's just an idea. Something clearly is not working right now for Cam. He's way better than this.

[COYS]

T-rank has our Def Rebounding as 181st in the nation, something upon which we could improve, but not as bad at your stats seem to indicate.

Also, it is worth noting that as a result of our ability to force turnovers, we remain a super efficient defensive team despite the relatively poor defensive rebounding. In fact, of the top 10 teams in defensive efficiency on T-rank, only Michigan and Kansas St. are top 50 at defensive rebounding. Several other elite defensive teams (VCU, Florida, and Texas) join Duke as teams that have below average defensive rebounding despite being top 10 in defensive efficiency. Sorta implies that defensive rebounding is not closely correlated to defensive efficiency.

-Jason "here is the T-rank Def Efficiency page (http://barttorvik.com/trank.php?team=Duke&y=2019&sort=AdjDE#)so you can check my stats ;) " Evans

To your point, Jason, this somewhat-old-but-still-relevant article from fivethirtyeight (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hidden-value-of-the-nba-steal/) argues that rebounds (and assists) seem to be far less valuable than steals and blocked shots. In fact, the article makes the argument that steals are the single most valuable traditional stat with blocked shots coming in second.

This analysis passes the eye-test for me, even if I have no qualifications to comment on the methodology used to determine the relative value of a defensive rebound and a steal. Steals are the most likely event on the court to result in high-efficiency fast-break points. Blocked shots have the double benefit of preventing a scoring chance and getting into the heads of opposing players when they take future shots. Both Clemson and Texas Tech missed a few layups, but I think that the fact that they knew Zion, Marques, Javin, Jack, etc were lurking played a role in those misses. Meanwhile, even bad rebounding teams will get a pretty large number of rebounds simply because there tend to be more defensive players closer to the basket than offensive players.

At any rate, I'd love it if Duke becomes an elite defensive rebounding team, but not if it comes at the expense of steals and blocks. I'd love it if Marques became a dominant defensive rebounder, but only if keeps swatting shots at the same rate.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

I think Cam would probably be playing better if he had a more prominent role handling the ball. It's pretty clear that he hasn't yet become comfortable in his current role as more of a spot up shooter and being the 3rd (or even 4th) option as a ball handler. It hard to do that when you've been the #1 option your entire life. Every time he touches the ball now, he's trying too hard to do something spectacular, because he knows he's not going to get as many touches as he would really like.

It's a tough position to be in, as a dominant scorer, but being the 3rd option. You see this with NBA super teams when they are newly assembled. Chris Bosh and Kevin Love both had a really hard time adjusting to being the 3rd option. I still have a lot of faith in Cam to be able to get back to what he was doing earlier in the year, but there's no question he's really having a tough go of it lately.

I mentioned this before in the previous phase thread, but I wonder if he would be better off coming off the bench, subbing in for RJ or Zion whenever either of them goes out. It would give him more opportunities to handle the ball. We could force feed Cam touches while RJ is resting to get him in a rhythm, and then have him close the game and still play 30+ minutes. Jack is clearly capable of starting and fits wonderfully with those other starters, so I think you could start Javin, Jack, Zion, RJ, and Tre, and close games with Jack, Cam, Zion, RJ, and Tre. I dunno, it's just an idea. Something clearly is not working right now for Cam. He's way better than this.


Maybe he isn't.

[kAzE]

Maybe he isn't.

No. I'm not worried about that at all. He's really really freakin good. It's just really hard for a newly assembled team is support 3 high volume scorers who all need the ball in their hands. I've seen it enough times to know what's going on. If Cam had his own team, where he's the #1 guy, he'd be in the #1 pick conversation. I have no doubt about that.

[COYS]

No. I'm not worried about that at all. He's really really freakin good. It's just really hard for a newly assembled team is support 3 high volume scorers who all need the ball in their hands. I've seen it enough times to know what's going on. If Cam had his own team, where he's the #1 guy, he'd be in the #1 pick conversation. I have no doubt about that.

Also, I think we should give the guy more credit for not letting his very real struggles on offense affect his focus on defense. He's been a difference-maker on defense since day one. They aren't as spectacular as Zion's dunks and they're not as obvious as Tre's ball-pressure, but Cam can guard all positions on the court, he is fantastic at denying the ball on the wing, he is able to maintain good position while also generating steals at a high rate (this is not an easy combination to achieve), and has been incredible at single-handedly stopping fast-breaks from the opposing team. His foul-rate is still too high, but otherwise he is one of the best defensive recruits we've had since the OAD era started at Duke. Obviously, Cam needs to stop turning the ball over on offense (a 24% turnover rate is just simply too high), but his defense has been fantastic. Even if he never becomes a dominant offensive force, if he just cuts his turnover rate by a little and looks more like a 37% 3pt shooter rather than the 30% shooter he's looked like for the past few games, he'll be an immensely valuable player. And we all know he has the potential to be even better than that.

[sagegrouse]

Re Cam Reddish


Maybe he isn't.


No. I'm not worried about that at all. He's really really freakin good. It's just really hard for a newly assembled team is support 3 high volume scorers who all need the ball in their hands. I've seen it enough times to know what's going on. If Cam had his own team, where he's the #1 guy, he'd be in the #1 pick conversation. I have no doubt about that.

I thought Dickie V. had a good point [gasp!!]: Cam is thinking too much; he needs to play on instinct.

[Saratoga2]

Maybe he isn't.

The evidence suggest his ball security and passing skills are below average. A much too high turnover rate. Lets hope he can be coached to improve duriing the season.

[Nugget]

Also, I think we should give the guy more credit for not letting his very real struggles on offense affect his focus on defense. He's been a difference-maker on defense since day one. They aren't as spectacular as Zion's dunks and they're not as obvious as Tre's ball-pressure, but Cam can guard all positions on the court, he is fantastic at denying the ball on the wing, he is able to maintain good position while also generating steals at a high rate (this is not an easy combination to achieve), and has been incredible at single-handedly stopping fast-breaks from the opposing team. His foul-rate is still too high, but otherwise he is one of the best defensive recruits we've had since the OAD era started at Duke. Obviously, Cam needs to stop turning the ball over on offense (a 24% turnover rate is just simply too high), but his defense has been fantastic. Even if he never becomes a dominant offensive force, if he just cuts his turnover rate by a little and looks more like a 37% 3pt shooter rather than the 30% shooter he's looked like for the past few games, he'll be an immensely valuable player. And we all know he has the potential to be even better than that.

I think (hope?) this is exactly right. That if Cam just (i) cuts down on TOs (part of which seems to be due to his pressing a bit on O the last few games) and (ii) reverts to the mean with his 3 pt shooting, and continues to play solid D, he will be a key factor to putting this team over the top. Both of those should be very achievable for a guy with his talent.

[budwom]

I guess I'm thrilled that of the eight guys who are arguably in our current rotation, Cam is the only guy really struggling. Wouldn't we say that everyone else has at least met, or greatly exceeded expectations? The other frosh are
thriving, DeLaurier has been playing very well, White ultra well; AOC doing fine as well...and Bolden seems to have found a decent niche

Cam will just have to play through this, and hopefully his defense fuels an offensive resurgence..in most of our games K will be able to let him play through a number of mistakes if need be.

[CDu]

No. I'm not worried about that at all. He's really really freakin good. It's just really hard for a newly assembled team is support 3 high volume scorers who all need the ball in their hands. I've seen it enough times to know what's going on. If Cam had his own team, where he's the #1 guy, he'd be in the #1 pick conversation. I have no doubt about that.

Reddish has always had two questions about his game: can he dial in the intensity/effort to be a more consistent player (i.e., can he avoiding drifting in and out of relevance on the court), and can he have success when he isn't a ball-dominant player? He struggled at the various all-star games that he played in as a HS senior, which only amplified those questions.

Coach K is certainly the right type of coach to go to to help with the first question. But perhaps going to a team with two better players wasn't the best fit for him. It seems like maybe being the third option (both as a scorer and as a ballhandler) isn't helping him with the drifting in and out of the game.

In terms of role, it's not all that dissimilar to me to what Harrison Barnes went through at UNC. He went from being the no-question-about-it stud to a primarily off-ball player at UNC (where the offense runs through the PG and then the bigs) as a freshman. It took him a while to adapt. For a guy who was a good but not elite/knockdown shooter, that's a tough transition. And for Reddish, he is adding to that mix that he is the third best player, AND the fact that he has a tendency to not force the issue.

When he was the lead guard, he could still produce even when drifting, because he was getting a ton of touches. But at Duke, we've got enough weapons around him that he's got to make his touches count. And, unfortunately, right now, that's not happening. So he's becoming a stationary 3pt shooter. And since he's not an elite 3pt shooter (just a good but streaky one), he's struggling.

The one good thing is that he still seems to be bringing it defensively. He was fantastic on defense in the Texas Tech game. Hopefully that continues. And hopefully he can figure out how to get his skills to merge with those of Williamson and Barrett. Really, he should be doing the same things Barrett is doing: driving, pushing tempo when he gets a rebound, looking to draw fouls and/or create open shots for guys off drives. He has the skills to do that. And if he does that, then he doesn't have to rely on solely shooting 3s. I just hope his confidence doesn't wane too much. The season is short, and finding your role can be challenging for any freshman in a new environment.

Hopefully he figures it out. He has all the tools in there - perhaps the most skilled of the four playing freshmen. He "just" has to figure out how to unlock them.

[Billy Dat]

I am really interested to see if this Duke team can keep pushing the pace.

Right now, we are ranked #9 in D1 with 78.6 possessions per game (PosPG).

In this phase, our opponents are:

Clemson - currently ranked 209th at 71.4 PosPPG. We got them up to 78.4
Wake - 205th, 71.7
FSU - 90th, 74.4
Syracuse - 300th, 69.3
UVA - 352nd (snore), 63.7
Pitt - 103rd, 74

In general, we are playing a sloooooow crop of team in this phase. Can we continue to impose our pace?

[kAzE]

Hopefully he figures it out. He has all the tools in there - perhaps the most skilled of the four playing freshmen. He "just" has to figure out how to unlock them.

I see a few parallels between Cam's situation and Jaylen Brown with the Celtics. I'm not saying it's a perfect analogy, but hear me out. They are both obviously incredibly talented players, but have had a lot of trouble going from a prominent ball handling role the previous season to fitting in with their "new," more offensively gifted teammates. For Cam, it's Zion & RJ. And even though Cam is more talented than Tre, Tre needs the balls in his hands as well, making Cam the #4 ball handler.

For Jaylen, he was the #2 or 3 option on offense during their 2018 playoff run, with Jayson Tatum and Terry Rozier being the other main guys. Now, he's more like #5 or 6 with Kyrie, Tatum, Morris, Hayward, and Rozier all in the mix. Brown was terrible to start out this year. That doesn't mean he's bad now, or that he forgot how to play, it was just really hard to adjust to being a role player after nearly leading the team to the Finals 4-5 months ago.

After struggling mightily for the first 20 to 25 games, and then missing a few games due to a minor injury, Brad Stevens opted to bring Marcus Smart into the starting lineup, and brought Jaylen off the bench when he became available again. Smart is a defense-first guy who can facilitate, but does not demand the ball on offense. It works, because it allows Kyrie to do his thing more without having to worry about getting another scorer consistent touches. Tatum is already a scoring wing who demands the ball on offense, so touches were hard to come by for Jaylen. By moving to the bench, Brown has been able to be more of a focus on offense, and has been playing much better recently, contributing with much more consistent scoring lately. I think it's something Coach K could try with Cam at some point if this slump continues.

Jack White is the Marcus Smart of this team. He never needs the ball, and unless he's open for a shot, he'll just keep moving the ball. It also doesn't hurt that he's rock solid on defense and has been our most consistent shooter.

And that's not to say that Cam shouldn't play 30+ minutes and be in the game in crunch time. Jack is coming off the bench and averages more minutes than Cam already. Their roles wouldn't even have to change. And Cam definitely should be in the game when it's winning time (with Jack). He's the best tough jump shot maker on the team, and the best free throw shooter. I just think maybe he could get into a better rhythm coming off the bench and being more of a focal point on offense with his early touches. Right now, he's just sort of a decoy for Zion and RJ with that starting group, rather than the dynamic creator with the ball that I know he can be. We've seen him dominate games when RJ or Zion are on the bench. The talent is there.

[jv001]

My observations on Cam's play in recent games; 1) His shooting has been bad. 2) His ball handling not good either. I think a good way to get him going is to set him up for some open 3 point shots. Like the team does for Jack. He takes too many off balance 3 pointers and it looks like he's afraid he's going to get his shot blocked. Maybe even some mid-range jumpers would help him get out of his shooting funk. As for his ball handling, he seems to be over thinking and not just playing his game. Plus, he's not strong with the ball. Getting the ball closer to the basket might help with his ball handling. I'm sure the coaches see the same thing we do and are hard at work trying to get Cam going. It's just a matter of him getting his confidence back. I'll be rooting for him to get it going against a bad Wake team and a bad Wake coach. GoDuke!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

My observations on Cam's play in recent games; 1) His shooting has been bad. 2) His ball handling not good either. I think a good way to get him going is to set him up for some open 3 point shots. Like the team does for Jack. He takes too many off balance 3 pointers and it looks like he's afraid he's going to get his shot blocked. Maybe even some mid-range jumpers would help him get out of his shooting funk. As for his ball handling, he seems to be over thinking and not just playing his game. Plus, he's not strong with the ball. Getting the ball closer to the basket might help with his ball handling. I'm sure the coaches see the same thing we do and are hard at work trying to get Cam going. It's just a matter of him getting his confidence back. I'll be rooting for him to get it going against a bad Wake team and a bad Wake coach. GoDuke!

Some good points.....and I think, man, just imagine what this team will be when Cam gets out of this funk. We saw glimpses v Kentucky........

[jv001]

Some good points....and I think, man, just imagine what this team will be when Cam gets out of this funk. We saw glimpses v Kentucky....

This(bolded) is what I told my wife going to church Sunday morning. Like you posted, Cam had a very good game against the Mild Cats and that tells me it's in there. He needs to see the ball go in the basket at the beginning of the game and that could even be just a couple of FTs. He's not let his shooting slump affect his defense and that shows he wants to win and it's not just about him. I love that. GoDuke!

[phaedrus]

R.J. Barrett is the number one high school player from 2018 and the MVP of the FIBA under-19 championships at the age of 17 years, one month. R.J. is clearly the leader of the team on the floor, but can he up his game to match the (unreasonable) expectations of many Duke fans? R.J. is averaging 23.8 PPG on shooting of 46 percent overall, with 32 percent from three and 65 percent on FT’s. We don’t know if R.J. is taking too many shots, but we will be happy if he makes a higher percentage. Of course, we recognize that one reason his percentage is low is because the team asks him to take the difficult shots. Duke’s strategy is often to put the ball in RJ’s hands and get out of the way.


It's important to note that R.J. is shooting 52.6% on two-point attempts, which comes out to a 53.1% true-shooting percentage. That's actually pretty good. (Of course, it's inflated by shooting 17 for 20 against Hartford and Stetson.) It would be great if his three-point percentage came up a few notches, but given the need for us to spread the floor, I think he needs to keep shooting them when he's open, even at 31%.

[CDu]

It's important to note that R.J. is shooting 52.6% on two-point attempts, which comes out to a 53.1% true-shooting percentage. That's actually pretty good. (Of course, it's inflated by shooting 17 for 20 against Hartford and Stetson.) It would be great if his three-point percentage came up a few notches, but given the need for us to spread the floor, I think he needs to keep shooting them when he's open, even at 31%.

Actually, a 53.1 TS% is just ok, not pretty good. A 55% TS% is good, whereas 52-53% is just average. For reference, it is the third-worst TS% among our regulars. The bigger concern, in my opinion, is that his efficiency against Power-5 teams plus Gonzaga is far worse (44.2%).

Now, to be fair, he still provides a ton of value on the court. Good defense, lots of rebounds, and good passing, not to mention intensity and effort. He is most certainly a valuable player, probably third-most valuable on the team. But in terms of his scoring efficiency, I would characterize it as very good against terrible teams and fairly bad against good teams or major conference teams.

Hopefully that improves soon, as we aren’t going to face a ton of very bad teams the rest of the way.

[Papa John]

Actually, a 53.1 TS% is just ok, not pretty good. A 55% TS% is good, whereas 52-53% is just average. For reference, it is the third-worst TS% among our regulars. The bigger concern, in my opinion, is that his efficiency against Power-5 teams plus Gonzaga is far worse (44.2%).

Now, to be fair, he still provides a ton of value on the court. Good defense, lots of rebounds, and good passing, not to mention intensity and effort. He is most certainly a valuable player, probably third-most valuable on the team. But in terms of his scoring efficiency, I would characterize it as very good against terrible teams and fairly bad against good teams or major conference teams.

Hopefully that improves soon, as we aren’t going to face a ton of very bad teams the rest of the way.

Of course, we're looking at small sample sizes, no? Particularly against good teams. It looks to me like RJ expects to get whistles he received in HS and perhaps earlier this season against inferior competition, but he needs to recognize that sometimes the calls ain't gonna go your way and just play on. What I love to see about all of these frosh is that they are able to shake that off and get back to play hard-nosed man-to-man D, and they all seem to absolutely love getting a stop. In fact, I loved the post Clemson interview with Zion in which he said the block was more significant to him than the 360 dunk. These kids have their priorities aligned with what you would expect of a more mature team—everything good stems from solid D... I love that 'tude...

[Saratoga2]

My observations on Cam's play in recent games; 1) His shooting has been bad. 2) His ball handling not good either. I think a good way to get him going is to set him up for some open 3 point shots. Like the team does for Jack. He takes too many off balance 3 pointers and it looks like he's afraid he's going to get his shot blocked. Maybe even some mid-range jumpers would help him get out of his shooting funk. As for his ball handling, he seems to be over thinking and not just playing his game. Plus, he's not strong with the ball. Getting the ball closer to the basket might help with his ball handling. I'm sure the coaches see the same thing we do and are hard at work trying to get Cam going. It's just a matter of him getting his confidence back. I'll be rooting for him to get it going against a bad Wake team and a bad Wake coach. GoDuke!

By this description, Cam is not playing well on offense, something that was pretty obvious against Clemson. Of the freshmen, Zion, RJ and Tre have all been much better. Lets not sugar coat it, Cam has not been what he was expected to be. He needs to tighten his handle, make better decisions with the ball and he needs to shoot better. By all evaluations coming in, he should be able to do those things, but it hasn't been happening.

[Gooch]

I see a few parallels between Cam's situation and Jaylen Brown with the Celtics...

...That doesn't mean he's bad now, or that he forgot how to play, it was just really hard to adjust to being a role player after nearly leading the team to the Finals...

I think it's something Coach K could try with Cam at some point if this slump continues...

...Right now, he's just sort of a decoy for Zion and RJ with that starting group, rather than the dynamic creator with the ball that I know he can be. We've seen him dominate games when RJ or Zion are on the bench. The talent is there.

Sporks for this...I get the feeling Cam would do better with more touches with one of the high usage guys on the bench. He could get a better feel for the game and wouldn’t force his shots, and his streaky shooting could be less streaky.

A key part or this in my mind is Coach K’s ability to explain this in an NBA-style way. He could make it not about benching him but drawing the NBA parallels and helping Cam embrace the role. Our team already has a lot in common with the pro-style game, this could be another example.

[Jeffrey]

I think Cam would probably be playing better if he had a more prominent role handling the ball. It's pretty clear that he hasn't yet become comfortable in his current role as more of a spot up shooter and being the 3rd (or even 4th) option as a ball handler. RJ and Zion both demand the ball. I don't think anyone believes Cam should be getting more touches than those two guys, and Tre is an elite point guard who obviously should have the ball in his hands too. It's crazy hard to be #4 in touches when you've been the #1 option your entire life. Every time Cam touches the ball now, he's trying too hard to do something spectacular, because he knows he's not going to get as many touches as he would really like.

It's a tough position to be in, as a dominant scorer, but being the 3rd scoring option. You see this with NBA super teams when they are newly assembled. Chris Bosh and Kevin Love both had a really hard time adjusting to being the 3rd option. I still have a lot of faith in Cam to be able to get back to what he was doing earlier in the year, but there's no question he's really having a tough go of it lately.

I mentioned this before in the previous phase thread, but I wonder if he would be better off coming off the bench, subbing in for RJ or Zion whenever either of them goes out.

A couple of opinions about Cam...

1. A probable Top 5 NBA pick should always start at Duke.

2. A Team USA HC should be an expert at converting a dominant scorer to a 3rd scoring option.

3. Duke is very hard to beat when Cam and Jack make 3's.

[kAzE]

A couple of opinions about Cam...

1. A probable Top 5 NBA pick should always start at Duke.

I don't like absolutes . . . if something doesn't work, then why force it? We couldn't play Duke man-to-man defense last year. It wasn't working, so we stopped doing it.


2. A Team USA HC should be an expert at converting a dominant scorer to a 3rd scoring option.

I mean . . . it's clearly not working. And we're also not really taking advantage of a good chunk of Cam's skill set (giving him consistent opportunities to create shots off the dribble). All I said was, if it keeps going like this, then a change is probably warranted.


3. Duke is very hard to beat when Cam and Jack make 3's.

That's not really an opinion, that's quite obvious :)

I mean, who knows? maybe he's just having a bad shooting slump and within the next 5 games, it will correct itself and he'll get back to playing great in the exact same rotation and role. I was just saying, if this continues to be a problem, then the coaches should adjust something. And who really cares who starts the game? Jack comes off the bench, plays the 4th most minutes, and closes games. He's basically a starter already. He's just a better fit with RJ and Zion. There's only 1 ball, and Jack doesn't need it or want it in his hands. Cam does.

If moving to the bench gives Cam more opportunity to showcase his skills, he should be 100% behind it. He's not just a spot up shooter. That's Jack. Cam can still play the same amount of minutes, and have more chances to do what he's good at. He's only tanking his draft stock right now anyways.

[Jeffrey]

If moving to the bench gives Cam more opportunity to showcase his skills, he should be 100% behind it. He's not just a spot up shooter. That's Jack. Cam can still play the same amount of minutes, and have more chances to do what he's good at. He's only tanking his draft stock right now anyways.

Do you truly believe starting Jack over Cam is good for Cam's draft stock and confidence? IMO, adjusting substitution patterns makes more sense.

[JayZee]

My observations on Cam's play in recent games; 1) His shooting has been bad. 2) His ball handling not good either. I think a good way to get him going is to set him up for some open 3 point shots. Like the team does for Jack. He takes too many off balance 3 pointers and it looks like he's afraid he's going to get his shot blocked. Maybe even some mid-range jumpers would help him get out of his shooting funk. As for his ball handling, he seems to be over thinking and not just playing his game. Plus, he's not strong with the ball. Getting the ball closer to the basket might help with his ball handling. I'm sure the coaches see the same thing we do and are hard at work trying to get Cam going. It's just a matter of him getting his confidence back. I'll be rooting for him to get it going against a bad Wake team and a bad Wake coach. GoDuke!


His foul trouble has been a problem in the last few games and it seems as though there are follow on effects from that - pressing as he has even fewer minutes/opportunities.

[kAzE]

Do you truly believe starting Jack over Cam is good for Cam's draft stock and confidence? IMO, adjusting substitution patterns makes more sense.

Does Coach K care more about draft stock or winning the national championship? Also, why do you think NBA GMs are naive enough to care that much about whether a guy starts or comes off the bench? Would you rather draft a guy averaging 8 points as a starter or a guy averaging 14 points coming off the bench? Who cares?

Anybody with a working set of eyes can see Jack has been outplaying Cam over the past few games, and it's not really that close.

Putting the ball in Cam's hands more would help his confidence more than hurt it IMO. Basketball is never as simple as jamming all the best players in 1 lineup. The pieces have to fit.

[jv001]

Does Coach K care more about draft stock or winning the national championship? Anybody with a working set of eyes can see Jack has been outplaying Cam over the past few games, and it's not really that close.

Putting the ball in Cam's hands more would help his confidence more than hurt it IMO. Basketball is never as simple as jamming all the best players in 1 lineup. The pieces have to fit.

This would be true if he improves his handle and get's his shots to fall. But how would it affect the team if he continues to play like he's playing now? Maybe it wouldn't hurt to let him have the ball in his hands against teams like Wake but most to the ACC schedule will be tough. I certainly agree Jack White is outplaying Cam at the present time, but if Cam can get it going what a team that would be. Like I said before, I'm sure the coaching staff is working hard on getting Cam up to speed. GoDuke!

[kAzE]

This would be true if he improves his handle and get's his shots to fall. But how would it affect the team if he continues to play like he's playing now? Maybe it wouldn't hurt to let him have the ball in his hands against teams like Wake but most to the ACC schedule will be tough. I certainly agree Jack White is outplaying Cam at the present time, but if Cam can get it going what a team that would be. Like I said before, I'm sure the coaching staff is working hard on getting Cam up to speed. GoDuke!

This is me speculating, but I think the reason he's been so off is because he hasn't gotten as many touches as he would like, so when does get a chance to do something with the ball, he's pressing instead of just playing like he normally would. The foul trouble has definitely contributed to this as well, by limiting his playing time.

Again, I'm not saying cut his minutes, just bring him off the bench so he can do more of what he's good at. It's a waste to use him as a spot up shooter. He can do so much more.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This is me speculating, but I think the reason he's been so off is because he hasn't gotten as many touches as he would like, so when does get a chance to do something with the ball, he's pressing instead of just playing like he normally would. The foul trouble has definitely contributed to this as well, by limiting his playing time.

Again, I'm not saying cut his minutes, just bring him off the bench so he can do more of what he's good at. It's a waste to use him as a spot up shooter. He can do so much more.

2 reasons I don't think K will start Jack over Cam....and again, this is just my speculation:

A: Jack is doing great in his current role.....why risk upsetting what is working.
B: Cam might lose even more confidence if he doesn't start....(and I happen to think confidence is the key to his return to former self).

[Jeffrey]

Again, I'm not saying cut his minutes, just bring him off the bench so he can do more of what he's good at.

What do you consider the ideal lineup for Cam? Do you have statistics showing Duke plays substantially better in your ideal lineup?


It's a waste to use him as a spot up shooter.

If Cam becomes a great spot up shooter, then Duke is very hard to beat. How is that a waste?

[CDu]

This is me speculating, but I think the reason he's been so off is because he hasn't gotten as many touches as he would like, so when does get a chance to do something with the ball, he's pressing instead of just playing like he normally would. The foul trouble has definitely contributed to this as well, by limiting his playing time.

Again, I'm not saying cut his minutes, just bring him off the bench so he can do more of what he's good at. It's a waste to use him as a spot up shooter. He can do so much more.

I tend to agree that a big part of the problem is that he's not getting the touches he's used to getting. The problem with bringing him off the bench is that I don't think it is really going to get him substantially more touches per minute. Barrett is currently averaging 31 mpg, and that's only about to go up in ACC play, as he's averaging 35 mpg against P5 teams and Gonzaga. And really, it's Barrett that is largely the limiting factor on touches for Reddish, as the two somewhat overlap stylistically (at least moreso than any other player with Reddish).

So if Barrett is playing 35 mpg, then there are only 5 mpg in which Reddish is going to be able to be the lead wing. So I don't think that bringing Reddish off the bench is going to fix anything. The bigger thing is that we need to try to figure out a way to get Reddish going when playing alongside at least one of Williamson and Barrett, and also be useful when playing with both. Because there should be zero minutes per game in which two of them aren't on the floor together, and ideally we should get as many minutes with all 3 on the floor as possible (because all 3 should be 30+ mpg players barring foul trouble).

Now, bringing Reddish off the bench is certainly one way to get him playing all of the minutes that Barrett sits. But it isn't the only way. You can still get those additional touches by simply staggering when Reddish and Barrett get their first rest. Since Barrett sits so sparingly anyway, you could bring White in for Reddish, then bring Reddish back in for Barrett a few minutes later. Then, 2-3 minutes later, sub Barrett back in for whomever it makes the most sense to sub for moving forward. You only have to have a ~2-3 minute window each half to account for all of Barrett's rest time anyway.

[kAzE]

What do you consider the ideal lineup for Cam? Do you have statistics showing Duke plays substantially better in your ideal lineup?

If Cam becomes a great spot up shooter, then Duke is very hard to beat. How is that a waste?


2 reasons I don't think K will start Jack over Cam...and again, this is just my speculation:

A: Jack is doing great in his current role...why risk upsetting what is working.
B: Cam might lose even more confidence if he doesn't start...(and I happen to think confidence is the key to his return to former self).

It doesn't matter what I think. I'm not coaching this team. I'm good with whatever Coach K ends up doing. I just think starting Jack is something he might consider.


I tend to agree that a big part of the problem is that he's not getting the touches he's used to getting. The problem with bringing him off the bench is that I don't think it is really going to get him substantially more touches per minute. Barrett is currently averaging 31 mpg, and that's only about to go up in ACC play, as he's averaging 35 mpg against P5 teams and Gonzaga. And really, it's Barrett that is largely the limiting factor on touches for Reddish, as the two somewhat overlap stylistically (at least moreso than any other player with Reddish).

So if Barrett is playing 35 mpg, then there are only 5 mpg in which Reddish is going to be able to be the lead wing. So I don't think that bringing Reddish off the bench is going to fix anything. The bigger thing is that we need to try to figure out a way to get Reddish going when playing alongside at least one of Williamson and Barrett, and also be useful when playing with both. Because there should be zero minutes per game in which two of them aren't on the floor together, and ideally we should get as many minutes with all 3 on the floor as possible (because all 3 should be 30+ mpg players barring foul trouble).

Now, bringing Reddish off the bench is certainly one way to get him playing all of the minutes that Barrett sits. But it isn't the only way. You can still get those additional touches by simply staggering when Reddish and Barrett get their first rest. Since Barrett sits so sparingly anyway, you could bring White in for Reddish, then bring Reddish back in for Barrett a few minutes later. Then, 2-3 minutes later, sub Barrett back in for whomever it makes the most sense to sub for moving forward. You only have to have a ~2-3 minute window each half to account for all of Barrett's rest time anyway.

Now this is a much better counterargument. I agree RJ is going to play a lot. But I believe the thing that has limited Cam is the emergence of Zion as a ball handler. Zion actually initiates the offense more than Cam. I don't think anybody anticipated Zion being such a good ball handler. I think if you did bring Cam off the bench, you bring him in for Zion and move Jack over to the 4.

Totally agree with your 3rd paragraph, and the minute staggering strategy. I don't think Cam needs to be the "lead wing," he just needs some time to be at least the 2nd scoring option, rather than the 3rd. So if he's out there with only 1 of RJ or Zion, I think that would help. You obviously put them all on the floor at the end of the game, but you need to give them all sufficient touches over the course of the game to get a rhythm going. If you can figure out how to do that while still starting Cam, then I'm all for it. But he's not getting enough touches right now.

[Jeffrey]

Now, bringing Reddish off the bench is certainly one way to get him playing all of the minutes that Barrett sits. But it isn't the only way. You can still get those additional touches by simply staggering when Reddish and Barrett get their first rest. Since Barrett sits so sparingly anyway, you could bring White in for Reddish, then bring Reddish back in for Barrett a few minutes later. Then, 2-3 minutes later, sub Barrett back in for whomever it makes the most sense to sub for moving forward. You only have to have a ~2-3 minute window each half to account for all of Barrett's rest time anyway.

IMO, adjusting substitution patterns makes more sense.

[CDu]

It doesn't matter what I think. I'm not coaching this team. I'm good with whatever Coach K ends up doing. I just think starting Jack is something he might consider. I correctly anticipated Javin overtaking Bolden's starting job, so let's see if this one pans out.

I mean, if Reddish keeps playing this poorly, then White SHOULD start over Reddish. And Coach K has already benched Reddish to start the second half in the last game, so it obviously could be that he brings Reddish off the bench soon (if not tonight).

I just don't think that addresses the issue, which is that we need him to figure out how to play as a 3rd option on offense. Because this team won't reach its ceiling unless he does so. This team's ceiling is when Williamson, Barrett, and Reddish are all playing 30+ mpg and at a high level. So whatever is done needs to be done with that goal in mind.


Now this is a much better counterargument. I agree RJ is going to play a lot. But I believe the thing that has limited Cam is the emergence of Zion as a ball handler. Zion actually initiates the offense more than Cam. I think if you did bring Cam off the bench, you bring him in for Zion and move Jack over to the 4. I don't think Cam needs to be the "lead wing," he just needs some time to be at least the 2nd scoring option, rather than the 3rd. So if he's out there with only 1 of RJ or Zion, I think that would help.

The issue is the same, whether it is Barrett or Williamson that comes out. Doesn't really matter who it is. There just are ideally going to be not that many minutes where Reddish isn't going to be the 3rd-best option. If he's playing 30+ mpg as his talent suggests he should be doing, then he's going to be sharing the floor with those guys for over half his minutes. And again, whether or not he comes off the bench or starts, since Barrett and Williamson are going to play as much as possible, it should be pretty easy to stagger the starters' minutes such that Reddish is starting AND able to get all of the minutes when one of Williamson and Barrett are out.

Again, not saying that Coach K won't go the route of bringing Reddish off the bench. It might even happen tonight. I just don't think that's a necessary move, as noted above. There are plenty of ways to get Reddish all of the minutes that Zion and Barrett sit. Bringing him off the bench is just one of the ways it can be done. It's not the only, nor even necessarily the best way to do it. And if confidence is part of the problem, it could be the wrong move too.

[kAzE]

Again, not saying that Coach K won't go the route of bringing Reddish off the bench. It might even happen tonight. I just don't think that's a necessary move, as noted above. There are plenty of ways to get Reddish all of the minutes that Zion and Barrett sit. Bringing him off the bench is just one of the ways it can be done. It's not the only, nor even necessarily the best way to do it. And if confidence is part of the problem, it could be the wrong move too.

I'm not saying "bench Cam" either. I just see a problem, and I'm hypothesizing ways to correct the issue. And I don't think it needs be a long term thing (unless it just works great). I'm also not saying bringing him off the bench is 100% guaranteed to work. I'm saying if he doesn't snap out of this slump, it's something that COULD work, and something Coach K MAY consider.

Coach K is not averse to bringing star players off the bench for the good of the team. He did this with Jon Scheyer, one of the best Duke players ever, in his junior year because it made more sense to bring him off the bench. It doesn't mean he's lost confidence in the player, or that the player is bad. The job of the coaching staff is to put every player in the best position for him to use his talents and help the team succeed. I'm in favor of whatever rotation that achieves this goal.

[DukieInBrasil]

Do you truly believe starting Jack over Cam is good for Cam's draft stock and confidence? IMO, adjusting substitution patterns makes more sense.
as kaze pointed out, why should we or K care about Cam's draft stock? K (and I) care about Natty's. I agree, adjusting the substitution pattern makes a lot of sense. Cam should be on the floor when RJ sits, and then when Zion sits. That alone is 10 - 15 mpg when Cam doesn't have to be 3rd banana, but rather 2nd. I don't have stats on this, but that is probably what is already happening.


What do you consider the ideal lineup for Cam? Do you have statistics showing Duke plays substantially better in your ideal lineup?


Why ask someone else to do your homework? It's just a bad argumentative tactic.

[Kedsy]

Coach K is not averse to bringing star players off the bench for the good of the team. He did this with Jon Scheyer, one of the best Duke players ever, in his junior year because it made more sense to bring him off the bench.

It was his sophomore year.

[Jeffrey]

as kaze pointed out, why should we or K care about Cam's draft stock?

I was responding (notice the quote?) to kAzE's statement "He's only tanking his draft stock right now anyways."

https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?42940-Phase-III-the-First-Part-of-the-ACC-Season&p=1114148#post1114148


Why ask someone else to do your homework? It's just a bad argumentative tactic.

Really? How exactly do I provide statistics on kAzE's ideal lineup for Cam when I obviously have no idea what it is?

[CDu]

I'm not saying "bench Cam" either.

I'm not saying you said "bench Cam." I'm just saying that I don't know that bringing him off the bench will help his psyche, and that there just aren't that many minutes when one of Zion and Barrett aren't on the floor (like maybe 15 mpg in conference play barring foul trouble). So while I agree with you that trying to get him opportunities with the ball in his hands can help, I'm just pointing that coming off the bench isn't necessary to achieve said goal. It is certainly A way to do it, but it is not the only way. It could well be the approach Coach K takes. Or, he could just take the alternative approach of staggering the substitutions to achieve the same purpose.


Coach K is not averse to bringing star players off the bench for the good of the team. He did this with Jon Scheyer, one of the best Duke players ever, in his junior year because it made more sense to bring him off the bench. It doesn't mean he's lost confidence in the player, or that the player is bad.

I don't have an issue with the idea of bringing a good player off the bench. If it will help Reddish, great. I just don't know that I see how it will help Reddish anymore than just staggering the starters' minutes such that we get the same effect. And noting that, if Reddish's confidence is shaky, sending him to the bench might not be a good idea.

Now, I don't know if confidence is really an issue, but it's certainly a possibility given his recent play.


The job of the coaching staff is to put every player in the best position for him to use his talents and help the team succeed. I'm in favor of whatever rotation that achieves this goal.

I totally agree. I'm just, like you, trying to hypothesize the impact of the two scenarios. And I don't really see a clear benefit of bringing Reddish off the bench (since we can clearly create the same intended result of more touches without changing the starting lineup), whereas I can see a potential downside to doing it (if it shakes his confidence).

Could it work? Sure. A lot of things could work. Or not. But if the goal of any rotation tweak is simply to get Reddish more minutes when he isn't the #3 option to try to get him going, that can be achieved without making changes to the starting lineup. That's all I'm saying. Changing the starters is A way to do it. There are other ways.

[kAzE]

I'm not saying you said "bench Cam." I'm just saying that I don't know that bringing him off the bench will help his psyche, and that there just aren't that many minutes when one of Zion and Barrett aren't on the floor (like maybe 15 mpg in conference play barring foul trouble). So while I agree with you that trying to get him opportunities with the ball in his hands can help, I'm just pointing that coming off the bench isn't necessary to achieve said goal. It is certainly A way to do it, but it is not the only way. It could well be the approach Coach K takes. Or, he could just take the alternative approach of staggering the substitutions to achieve the same purpose.

I'm okay with whatever helps Cam use his skills to the fullest within the team concept. I don't care if he starts or comes off the bench, we all just want him to play well and help the team win. The coaching staff has probably already tried numerous things during this prolonged stretch of Cam's slump (although he's really not helping with all the fouls), so let's see what they do in the next few games. I'm sure they will find some adjustment that works.

[CDu]

I'm okay with whatever helps Cam use his skills to the fullest within the team concept. I don't care if he starts or comes off the bench, we all just want him to play well and help the team win. The coaching staff has probably already tried numerous things during this prolonged stretch of Cam's slump (although he's really not helping with all the fouls), so let's see what they do in the next few games. I'm sure they will find some adjustment that works.

I, too, am okay with whatever helps get Reddish going. He's too talented a player and too important to the team's tourney hopes.

[cato]

I had given up hope of ever seeing Duke play D at this level again. Pressure, steals, turnovers — these are once again Duke’s calling card and everyone else is going to have to adjust to that.

Cam is playing a big part of this. I would be surprised if K passes up the opportunity to impose his defensive will on the other team by bringing Cam off the bench (other than for a game or two against weaker competition).

Of course, we only see glimpses of the team in games, and K has surprised all of us over the years, but if Cam loses his spot I think it will be because he drops off on D.

[Billy Dat]

In terms of Cam's touches relative to everyone else's, I looked up usage rates and found the following:

RJ - 33.7%
Cam - 29.2%
Zion - 28.3%

None of the other rotation guys is anywhere near 20%, which makes sense based on these 3 accounting for such a high overall % (understanding that they aren't always on the court at the same time).

Cam's turnover percentage is 18.9%! He needs to clean that up in a big way, but evidence, perhaps, that he isn't getting the kind of touches that he is traditionally used to, as discussed in various posts above. He also fouls too much, his fouls per 40 is 4.2 a full foul+ above RJ (2.7) and Zion (2.9).

These are areas he can clearly improve...if he can cut down on fouls and turnovers, he'll be on the court more and good stuff will happen...in theory.

[sagegrouse]

I'm okay with whatever helps Cam use his skills to the fullest within the team concept. I don't care if he starts or comes off the bench, we all just want him to play well and help the team win. The coaching staff has probably already tried numerous things during this prolonged stretch of Cam's slump (although he's really not helping with all the fouls), so let's see what they do in the next few games. I'm sure they will find some adjustment that works.

IMHO (where the H got lost on the bottom of the roster), a 35-YO Coach K may do one thing; a 71-YO Coach K, the best-known hoops coach in the entire world, will do something else. I don't believe K will "bench" the #3 player in the 2018 HS class, when he has the alternative of starting him, but playing him less. Benching Cam would be headlines all over the country -- putting even more pressure on young Reddish.

[CDu]

In terms of Cam's touches relative to everyone else's, I looked up usage rates and found the following:

RJ - 33.7%
Cam - 29.2%
Zion - 28.3%

None of the other rotation guys is anywhere near 20%, which makes sense based on these 3 accounting for such a high overall % (understanding that they aren't always on the court at the same time).

Cam's turnover percentage is 18.9%! He needs to clean that up in a big way, but evidence, perhaps, that he isn't getting the kind of touches that he is traditionally used to, as discussed in various posts above. He also fouls too much, his fouls per 40 is 4.2 a full foul+ above RJ (2.7) and Zion (2.9).

These are areas he can clearly improve...if he can cut down on fouls and turnovers, he'll be on the court more and good stuff will happen...in theory.

Yes, injury and foul trouble have been a huge noose on his playing time so far this year. Moreso than even his offensive struggles. He sat out the end of the first half and all of the second half against Eastern Michigan with a minor groin injury, and was in foul trouble against UK, Indiana, in the first half against Texas Tech, and against Clemson. Those games have certainly dragged down his minutes per game: he averaged 18.8 mpg in those 5 games, and 26 mpg in the other 8.

If he can cut down on the fouls, he'll probably be a 26-28 mpg player moving forward. Even if he doesn't improve on offense. If he improves on offense, he'll get back up to the more expected 30+ mpg moving forward.

[duke2x]

This coming weekend (sub-phase?) is the one I fear more than any other on the schedule: @FSU/Syracuse scream dual trap games. I don't think either opponent is really great from what I've seen, but we've had a mental block @FSU since 2001 when ranked #1. The ACC "rule" that we don't have to travel on Saturday before a Monday game was ignored, and we won't get much practice for Syracuse's zone on Sunday alone. Syracuse's only win in Cameron came in 2016 under similar circumstances. (I recognize 2019 is different from 2016.)

[Kedsy]

This coming weekend (sub-phase?) is the one I fear more than any other on the schedule: @FSU/Syracuse scream dual trap games. I don't think either opponent is really great from what I've seen, but we've had a mental block @FSU since 2001 when ranked #1. The ACC "rule" that we don't have to travel on Saturday before a Monday game was ignored, and we won't get much practice for Syracuse's zone on Sunday alone. Syracuse's only win in Cameron came in 2016 under similar circumstances. (I recognize 2019 is different from 2016.)

Syracuse might be considered a trap game, since it comes after a tough road game and before a highly anticipated matchup with Virginia. But Florida State? I don't know how anyone could call a road game against the #13 team in the country a "trap game."

[JasonEvans]

Want to know what I find most inexplicable about Cam's play lately? The turnovers.

Look, shooters are going to have slumps. As I pointed out in the first post in this thread, we saw a great shooter have an entire season of being cold Luke Kennard's freshman campaign. It can happen.

But, I saw Cam Reddish play extensively in high school all-star games and practices last spring and he was a model of a point forward. His Mickie Dee team preferred to have the ball in his hands versus Tre Jones. Cam had great handle and court vision. Ingram and Wislow are PGs at the next level and I am very clear that Cam was a better facilitator than either of them were at this point in their careers. I truly thought he would be our backup PG when Tre needed a break.

I find his lack of ballhandling lately utterly mystifying. It is not like he is trying to make a tough play and coming up short... dude is fumbling simple balls out of bounds. It is crazy.

-Jason "fix Cam and this team becomes one of the all-time juggernauts... I'm convinced of that" Evans

[jv001]

Want to know what I find most inexplicable about Cam's play lately? The turnovers.

Look, shooters are going to have slumps. As I pointed out in the first post in this thread, we saw a great shooter have an entire season of being cold Luke Kennard's freshman campaign. It can happen.

But, I saw Cam Reddish play extensively in high school all-star games and practices last spring and he was a model of a point forward. His Mickie Dee team preferred to have the ball in his hands versus Tre Jones. Cam had great handle and court vision. Ingram and Wislow are PGs at the next level and I am very clear that Cam was a better facilitator than either of them were at this point in their careers. I truly thought he would be our backup PG when Tre needed a break.

I find his lack of ballhandling lately utterly mystifying. It is not like he is trying to make a tough play and coming up short... dude is fumbling simple balls out of bounds. It is crazy.

-Jason "fix Cam and this team becomes one of the all-time juggernauts... I'm convinced of that" Evans

I think it's a simple lack of focus. I find it incredible that he's all of a sudden lost it. The basketball just seems to fall out of his hands and most of the time the ball has not been touched. I'm hoping he snaps out of this funk. Like you mentioned, I'm more worried about his ball handling than his shooting. GoDuke!

[sagegrouse]

Want to know what I find most inexplicable about Cam's play lately? The turnovers.

Look, shooters are going to have slumps. As I pointed out in the first post in this thread, we saw a great shooter have an entire season of being cold Luke Kennard's freshman campaign. It can happen.

But, I saw Cam Reddish play extensively in high school all-star games and practices last spring and he was a model of a point forward. His Mickie Dee team preferred to have the ball in his hands versus Tre Jones. Cam had great handle and court vision. Ingram and Wislow are PGs at the next level and I am very clear that Cam was a better facilitator than either of them were at this point in their careers. I truly thought he would be our backup PG when Tre needed a break.

I find his lack of ballhandling lately utterly mystifying. It is not like he is trying to make a tough play and coming up short... dude is fumbling simple balls out of bounds. It is crazy.

-Jason "fix Cam and this team becomes one of the all-time juggernauts... I'm convinced of that" Evans

It's simple, according to some commentators. Instead of, "Think, McFly! Think!" It's, "Stop thinking, Cam! Stop thinking!"

Kindly,
Sage
'Are Back to the Future references dated? I hope not, but I actually saw the film with my teenage daughters on the date that the events in the film actually happened'

[CDu]

Want to know what I find most inexplicable about Cam's play lately? The turnovers.

Look, shooters are going to have slumps. As I pointed out in the first post in this thread, we saw a great shooter have an entire season of being cold Luke Kennard's freshman campaign. It can happen.

But, I saw Cam Reddish play extensively in high school all-star games and practices last spring and he was a model of a point forward. His Mickie Dee team preferred to have the ball in his hands versus Tre Jones. Cam had great handle and court vision. Ingram and Wislow are PGs at the next level and I am very clear that Cam was a better facilitator than either of them were at this point in their careers. I truly thought he would be our backup PG when Tre needed a break.

I find his lack of ballhandling lately utterly mystifying. It is not like he is trying to make a tough play and coming up short... dude is fumbling simple balls out of bounds. It is crazy.

-Jason "fix Cam and this team becomes one of the all-time juggernauts... I'm convinced of that" Evans

To be fair, it helps a player look good when the other team isn't playing defense. In the Hoops Summit (where defense is played and there is a week of prep), for example, Reddish had zero assists and 2 turnovers in 19 minutes. That's the closest approximation to college play as you're going to see for a high school kid. The McDonald's game and the Jordan game are defense-free fests. In the EYBL, Reddish averaged 3.1 assists to 2.4 turnovers. So I don't think he was ever really known as a tight-handle, ball control player, and he was definitely not a PG.

Also, worth noting that Ingram and Winslow aren't PGs at the NBA level. Ingram played a few games there last year as an out-of-position fill-in, but he was not a passer/facilitator even then. Same for Winslow this year. They are still wings, they just happen to be dribbling the ball up the court, not running the offense and facilitating for others.

I'd say that Reddish was pretty comparable to both Ingram and Winslow in high school in terms of ballhandling.

[Kedsy]

I actually saw the film with my teenage daughters on the date that the events in the film actually happened

Pretty cool. Did you see any flying cars on your way into the theater?

Also, as of right now, Duke is #1 in the country in steal%, #2 in block%, #3 in opposing eFG%, and #4 in OR%. Unadjusted (meaning we are competing in these categories against teams who play almost exclusively low major competition). To be top 5 in the nation in that many (and particularly those) categories is truly amazing.

[Kedsy]

Also, worth noting that Ingram and Winslow aren't PGs at the NBA level. Ingram played a few games there last year as an out-of-position fill-in, but he was not a passer/facilitator even then. Same for Winslow this year. They are still wings, they just happen to be dribbling the ball up the court, not running the offense and facilitating for others.

FWIW, Spoelstra has been calling Justise his PG since Dragic got injured. In Justise's last 10 games (as nominal PG), he's had 5.1 apg with a 2.8:1 a/to ratio.

[superdave]

Re Cam Reddish


I thought Dickie V. had a good point [gasp!!]: Cam is thinking too much; he needs to play on instinct.

This. I thought Cam's first turnover vs Wake was a guy thinking he has to make a play. He may be thinking he's getting limited touches so make the most of them. It sped him up a little.

He also jumped in the air, had nowhere to go, and had to contort himself to make a pass on another play.

He's a freshman, 1/3 through his freshman year. I will take the growing pains because he's still contributing a lot of other ways.

[MChambers]

Want to know what I find most inexplicable about Cam's play lately? The turnovers.

Look, shooters are going to have slumps. As I pointed out in the first post in this thread, we saw a great shooter have an entire season of being cold Luke Kennard's freshman campaign. It can happen.

But, I saw Cam Reddish play extensively in high school all-star games and practices last spring and he was a model of a point forward. His Mickie Dee team preferred to have the ball in his hands versus Tre Jones. Cam had great handle and court vision. Ingram and Wislow are PGs at the next level and I am very clear that Cam was a better facilitator than either of them were at this point in their careers. I truly thought he would be our backup PG when Tre needed a break.

I find his lack of ballhandling lately utterly mystifying. It is not like he is trying to make a tough play and coming up short... dude is fumbling simple balls out of bounds. It is crazy.

-Jason "fix Cam and this team becomes one of the all-time juggernauts... I'm convinced of that" Evans

It started with a soft handle, but it seems to have spread, so that he is throwing bad passes, like the one at the of the first half of the Clemson game that gave Clemson the ball with 4 seconds left, or a bad pass to Tre last night in the backcourt that Tre was barely able to track down. That’s what me think it’s mental, or at least 90% half mental, as they say in baseball.

[Saratoga2]

It started with a soft handle, but it seems to have spread, so that he is throwing bad passes, like the one at the of the first half of the Clemson game that gave Clemson the ball with 4 seconds left, or a bad pass to Tre last night in the backcourt that Tre was barely able to track down. That’s what me think it’s mental, or at least 90% half mental, as they say in baseball.

Now we have seen a turnaround in Cam's game and he played against a physical and athletic team and helped us in a bigtime way. Good for Cam and good for coach K in staying with him.

[gam7]

When the schedule first came out, I did not appreciate the difficulty of the stretch of our schedule from 2/9 through 2/26.

@UVa (2)
@Louisville (26)
NC State (25)
UNC (10)
@Syracuse (42) (Carrier Dome)
@VA Tech (7)

Brutal.

8948

[MChambers]

When the schedule first came out, I did not appreciate the difficulty of the stretch of our schedule from 2/9 through 2/26.

@UVa (2)
@Louisville (26)
NC State (25)
UNC (10)
@Syracuse (42) (Carrier Dome)
@VA Tech (7)

Brutal.

8948

Absolutely correct, but it is largely offset by the relatively soft games between the two Virginia games.

@Pittsburgh (73)
Georgia Tech (62)
@Notre Dame (79)
St. John's (50)
Boston College (123)

I used T-Rank numbers. T-Rank gives Duke a probability of winning each of the games of at least 87%, for what that's worth.

[camion]

Phase III, after two weeks without hoops, takes on the first six games of the ACC season, beginning with Clemson at home on Saturday, January 5. We, Jason Evans and Sage, have about a dozen topics and questions on each topic. And we look forward to your views.

Health. Duke runs an up-tempo offense, triggered by steals, blocks and rebounds from a very aggressive defense. Can we continue at such a pace and effort without injuries? Assemble your good luck charms – we are hoping to stay healthy. It is worth noting that Duke’s reliance on freshmen makes the health question particularly relevant. The volume of games and practices in college versus the high school level is a significant change for freshmen. In past seasons we have generally seen the “freshman fatigue” bug bite players as we enter the middle of the ACC season. We don’t expect this to be a major concern during this phase of the year, but it is something to keep an eye upon.


Cam Reddish. We have talked about his shooting, but he is an all-around player: long, quick and capable in defense. He also has the most potential for improved play among our “big four.” Will Cam show his true capabilities as the season progresses?


Jack White has been an outstanding player off the bench, earning starter’s minutes (25 MPG) and being effective in many phases of the game. To our mind, his nose for the ball is his most valuable contribution, with 6.8 rebounds per game, although we are also pleased with his shooting and defense. As with Zion and Tre, our question is – can he keep playing at such a high level?

We can go on (and on and on), but we would like to hear from you.

Well here we are. I'll comment on four things.

Health - OMG!! Not good so far. Lost Zion for part of a game. Lost Cam for a whole game. Lost Tre "indefinitely."

Cam Reddish - The good, he seemed to find his game against Florida State. This bodes well going forward. The bad, he's ill. How will this impact his progress.

Jack White - What happened to his shot??? He wasn't anywhere close to hitting a shot on most attempts last night and really for the past few games.

AOC - Forced into extended action against Syracuse, he looked better, not great, but better.

[Saratoga2]

Adversity struck in the way of injuries, first Zion and now Tre for an indefinate period. Cam is out with sickness. Is it a flu?

We have no choice but to soldier on against very good ACC competition. What will the coaches do and are there things we can do differently to help cover for the loss of Tre?

1. We obviously have a problem shooting the 3 and it has been with us from the beginning. Add to that the fact that our guys are playing big minutes, their 3 point shooting if anything gets worse as they fatigue. Getting Cam back will help and really recognizing that AOC can shoot the 3 and encouraging him to do so by setting up plays for him would make sense. He seems almost desperate at times to get the ball out of his hands instead of probing the defense. He has quickness and length and a decent handle and should be asked to probe and shoot more. When he gets desperate to get rid of the ball he makes his bad passes.

2. RJ will have to act as PG with some assistance from Jordan. That will reduce his offensive effectiveness and we can't expect to get as many points off of turnovers. They will need to work between Cam, RJ and Zion to develop scoring opportunities. Not easy with our best against Virginia and very difficult against the pack line. Cam will likely not have as much stamina coming off the illness so AOC will need to get quite a bit of PT.

3. The last couple of games Javin has not contributed much either in rebounding or scoring. I think the length and athleticism of the other teams bothered him and brought out his worst trait of excessive fouling. The coaching staff needs to keep after him about the fouling as its too much to ask Bolden to play 30 minutes.

4. I heard Boeheim indicate that his center has for years always taken the ball dowwn to the floor to dribble and as a result seldom scored. Last night he went right back up and scored. Boeheim indicated they have been after him for years to do that and whether it was bad coaching or a slow learner, it was good to see him do that. Both Bolden and Delaurier also have that tendency and should not take the ball to the floor but often do. The Duke coaches must tell them the same things. It might well give them several points a game, and Bolden is a decent free throw shooter so if they foul him thats okay too.

5. Jack White I think also suffered from the height and athleticism of the teams we faced. In addition he must have been exhausted by having to be on the floor so long. His defense suffered, he had trouble rebounding and of course his shot left him entirely. Jack is still the same game and effective player that has given us so much. He has excellent game awareness. With Cam available, maybe the coaching staff can put him up against a UVA player that is not quite as quiick or large and also cut his minutes back with rest periods during the game.

[kAzE]

Want to know what I find most inexplicable about Cam's play lately? The turnovers.

Look, shooters are going to have slumps. As I pointed out in the first post in this thread, we saw a great shooter have an entire season of being cold Luke Kennard's freshman campaign. It can happen.

But, I saw Cam Reddish play extensively in high school all-star games and practices last spring and he was a model of a point forward. His Mickie Dee team preferred to have the ball in his hands versus Tre Jones. Cam had great handle and court vision. Ingram and Wislow are PGs at the next level and I am very clear that Cam was a better facilitator than either of them were at this point in their careers. I truly thought he would be our backup PG when Tre needed a break.

I find his lack of ballhandling lately utterly mystifying. It is not like he is trying to make a tough play and coming up short... dude is fumbling simple balls out of bounds. It is crazy.

-Jason "fix Cam and this team becomes one of the all-time juggernauts... I'm convinced of that" Evans

I'm still a believer that the Cam you and I saw in high school is the real Cam. Really not sure what combination of factors has contributed to his poor performance in these areas so far in this season at Duke, but point forward Cam was not something we imagined.

Tre is out for probably a month or more, right now would be a good time for the real Cam Reddish to please stand up.