MBB: Duke 91, Yale 58 Post-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

Put your post-game thoughts here.

[robed deity]

Ok,so there's been better shooting teams. But the defense. My goodness.

[TKG]

Bah humbug.

[unclsam1]

Jack White very impressive rebounding in the second half.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Bah humbug.

I missed last five minutes.....describe that meeting with K and the other coach again...

[MChambers]

Ok,so there's been better shooting teams. But the defense. My goodness.
Defense and transition offense. Hope the players work on shooting over the next month, especially over the break after Texas Tech.

[TKG]

I missed last five minutes....describe that meeting with K and the other coach again...

Very few words at handshake line. Usually, K talks with the other coach albeit briefly. Just seemed abnormally short tonight. Maybe I am reading too much into it.

[SCMatt33]

I really love that the defense doesn't take a night off on this team. Even with the half cour offense struggling mightily in the first half yet again, Duke was able to push out to a lead because of the D.

Now that half court offense on the other hand, really needs some work over the break. Namely, they have to accept the fact that teams are going to pack the lane against them whether it's man or zone. Zion and especially RJ really need to recognize the difference between a play they CAN make and a play they CAN ALWAYS make. Too often they forced it against two or even three guys rather than making pretty simple kick out passes to open shooters in the first half. Even on Wednesday when the shots weren't falling, they were still making the proper plays to find those shooters and let them take the shots. In fact, RJ's best stretch of the game came with about 13 minutes left in the game when he made some pretty simple passes on consecutive possessions. In the first half, he was driving indiscriminately or pulling up with no rebounders in the area. On those two plays he found Tre for an open three that he missed, but RJ was able to get himself into great rebounding ding position and got the rebound and got fouled. On the next one, he flared back out to the line and nailed an open three off a pass himself.

Making some simple passes can make a huge difference for these guys.

[Tripping William]

Ok,so there's been better shooting teams. But the defense. My goodness.

If only that K guy wasn’t so stubborn and play some zone with these defense-deficient OAD’s. The world would never be the same.... :rolleyes:

[/end sarcasm]

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Very few words at handshake line. Usually, K talks with the other coach albeit briefly. Just seemed abnormally short tonight. Maybe I am reading too much into it.

Not seeing it, but reading what you wrote, that is exactly what I figured. That is unusual. I'm guessing K was a little ticked at something. And thanks for the answer

[Saratoga2]

Another win and this one against a more talented and disciplined team, but one without a true point guard. It showed as Duke's pressure resulted in uncounted turnovers. Dukes transition offense was something Yale hadn't seen before. We really do have multiple guys who can finish a fast break and we have enough depth to stay fresh despite our continual defensive pressure.

Great game by Jack White. His positioning in rebounding is text book plus he plays a high energy defense and is capable of picking up opportune scoring chances.

RJ and Zion make up an incredible scoring punch. Barrett's body control on the break and Zion's ability to score inside against a double team. Wow.

Cam started very slow again but got it going in the second half. We wil need more consistency from him and should get it goinng foreward.

Delaurier has earned the job as the starting center for us and did an excellent job tonight. His athleticism, defensive prowess and quickness make him a good fit, at least against a team like Yale. Bolden's play was hampered by lack of quickness but maybe his size will come into play against a team with big rugged centers.

AOC's defense has come a long way so that makes him a viable substitute to keep us fresh. Tre had another very nice night. I hope his leg and ankle aren't giving him trouble. He went out again tonight with a gimpy leg. Didn't look too bad, but was a concern as he is the chief glue guy on the team along with White.

Hard to nit pick the team when it wins like this. Three items caught my attention:

1. FT shooting remains an issue. In a close match it may come back to bite us.

2. The attempt to play some full court press laid an egg. For the short time we went to that press, Yale scored on layups several times. Maybe we should scrap that approach.

3. Three point shooting is still not a strong point for the team and may not be this year.

On we go and Texas Tech should be more competitive. Size and athleticism is there.

[duke4ever19]

If only that K guy wasn’t so stubborn and play some zone with these defense-deficient OAD’s. The world would never be the same... :rolleyes:

[/end sarcasm]

Good news: Pomeroy has our defense up to #5, and just into the 80's (89.9)

Bad news: Our offense slipped from #2 to #3.

Reality check: It's early December, so why am I checking Kenpom multiple times a day on the weekends?

[KandG]

MUCH better than Hartford overall. Only thing that was mildly aggravating was the FT shooting in the first half, when we should have gone into the 2nd half up 15 if we had done better than 6 of 13. Otherwise, the focus of the team on defense throughout was really good.

Even though the ESPN announcers mentioned Alex getting more time than Cam in the first half and harped on Cam's shooting slump, I thought Alex earned his minutes with his energy and ability to make an outside shot, a defensive play, and even a breakaway slam (!). Actually thought Cam was very good on defense all game apart from a couple of lapses, and his offense picked up nicely at the start of the second half, even if his three still isn't falling.

Hope Tre is OK after whatever he suffered after that second half collision; team still maintained the defensive pressure well without him and I liked the look of RJ and Cam taking turns initiating the offense. Still a few rough spots and sloppy turnovers between them and Zion, but having different guys bring the ball up is a good way to vary the offense and gives Tre a break given how hard he has to work leading the pressure.

RJ seems to get better with every game, Jack's rebounding was excellent, and Javin had many good moments as the smallball starting center, though he's got to avoid those deadly cheap fouls. Bolden's going through a rough patch currently, a few good moments notwithstanding, but I expect the coaching staff will help him get out of it eventually.

[TKG]

Reality check: It's early December, so why am I checking Kenpom multiple times a day on the weekends?

Because you are secure with your place in the universe?

[Indoor66]

Because you are secure with your place in the universe?

Or maybe that is insecure?

[rocketeli]

Every one of my observations about game play has already been made, but want to mention, for all us old-timers, that the Duke court is now painted what I would call "Yale blue" and the Yale players were wearing the older navy blue Duke blue.

[ncexnyc]

This team just put up 91 points and that was with some horrid 3 pt shooting as well as poor free throw shooting. Now I know we can say that this is going to eventually bite us in the rear, but I'd rather think that we are also capable of putting it all together like we did against UK.

This is one scary team and I doubt anyone is looking forward to playing us.

[JayZee]

Definitely worried about Tre. From the replay it looked like his knee bent a touch inward. It could easily be a knee sprain. Here’s hoping it’s nothing as he is so fun to watch, especially on D.

[Ian]

We played great D but have a lot of room for improvement on offense. Have to start doing better in the half court against teams with good ball handlers that won't turn it over against us. Once we get our offense figured out we're going to be very hard to beat if we continue to play defense like this.

[JayZee]

It’s obvious that the plan for Zion is to double/triple him ASAP if he gets anywhere near the post. There will be many stand still 3s and open cuts to the basket. Jack had a great one in the second half.

[Old Dukie]

Jack White very impressive rebounding in the second half.

Wish some of his intensity and hustle would run off on Cam. Until it does, Cam should play 6th man.

[Old Dukie]

If only that K guy wasn’t so stubborn and play some zone with these defense-deficient OAD’s. The world would never be the same... :rolleyes:

[/end sarcasm]

This was Yale....not much of a defensive challenge.

[OldPhiKap]

Wish some of his intensity and hustle would run off on Cam. Until it does, Cam should play 6th man.

You are a Negative Nelly, eh?

[Pghdukie]

As the old Crazies used to say "Drive home safely". We could be snowed in without power for a few days.

[Tripping William]

This was Yale...not much of a defensive challenge.

Ikr. If only we could hold someone like Auburn or IU under 75.

[weezie]

Definitely worried about Tre. From the replay it looked like his knee bent a touch inward. It could easily be a knee sprain. Here’s hoping it’s nothing as he is so fun to watch, especially on D.

Argh, me too JayZee

[weezie]

Wish some of his intensity and hustle would run off on Cam. Until it does, Cam should play 6th man.


With much respect, behind who?

No way.

[Ian]

With much respect, behind who?

No way.

I'd play him behind Javin and Jack right now. He has the highest ceiling but right now he's not playing well. He's struggling to adjust to the physicality of the college game and hence unable to finish on his drives to the rim.

[BoiseDevil]

I'd play him behind Javin and Jack right now. He has the highest ceiling but right now he's not playing well. He's struggling to adjust to the physicality of the college game and hence unable to finish on his drives to the rim.

I’m fine with Reddish struggling to find his footing as long as he continues to be disruptive and active on D.

I hope K uses a carrot instead of a stick with Cam. Maybe run a play early to get him an open three or a backdoor layup to get him going every game. I trust the staff will find the right motivator.

Reddish will follow the Deng trajectory, I believe; flashes of talent early season, gaining confidence as game slows down during ACC and then adding consistency and domination come our two tourneys at the end of the season. That kid is the furthest from him ceiling of anyone on our team; and at times, he’s already really good.

Go Duke!

[JayZee]

Look like no vigil for Tre. Phew.

K said it was a quad thing. Way better than a knee.

And he looked happy and calm in the post game interview with Cam.

[Old Dukie]

We played great D but have a lot of room for improvement on offense. Have to start doing better in the half court against teams with good ball handlers that won't turn it over against us. Once we get our offense figured out we're going to be very hard to beat if we continue to play defense like this.

Totally agree re defense tonight....team got the message for this game - and they executed. But remember, Yale had sub standard ball handlers....so offense in half court will have to improve.

[Sluggo]

So much talent on this team. Zion is an impressive and unselfish passer. White fights for every rebound as if it might be his last. I hope Tre is OK.

I'm looking forward to the conference games as I believe with greater competition, the improvement will be much faster and impressive. The ceiling is the roof with this talented team!

[Old Dukie]

With much respect, behind who?

No way.

Behind O'Connell....that kid has twice the energy and given the chance, he'll start dropping in points. Cam is months away from playing consistently at this level.

[JayZee]

Cam is really good and getting better on D. He deflects so many passes. He just needs to work through the minor shot slump.

[richardjackson199]

16 Steals.

Wow

Defense was the story of the game

[MChambers]

Delaurier has earned the job as the starting center for us and did an excellent job tonight. His athleticism, defensive prowess and quickness make him a good fit, at least against a team like Yale. Bolden's play was hampered by lack of quickness but maybe his size will come into play against a team with big rugged centers.

K said Delaurier started because they wanted to switch 1 thru 5. May want to do that against Princeton, too, but I wouldn't assume Delaurier is always the starter.

[Kedsy]

It showed as Duke's pressure resulted in uncounted turnovers.

Actually, they were counted: 23.

Once again, during this break I'm keeping my comments on each stat to a minimum. I'm hoping to have the explanations for each advanced stat within the next few days.


ADVANCED STATS

Possessions: 82.98 (our fastest performance of the season)

OFFENSE

oRtg: 1.10 (our adjusted oRtg was 1.14, our second straight relatively poor performance).
eFG%: 53.0%
3pt%: 23.8% (not at all coincidentally, our second straight poor performance)
2pt%: 60.9% (anything over 60% is really good, and we've now done that four games in a row)
%threes: 31.3%
FT rate: 46.3% (back in the good zone after two weak performances)
OR%: 33.3% (lowest OR% since the Army game)
TO%: 18.1% (fourth straight game with too many turnovers)
a/to: 1.33:1
%assisted: 60.6%
fast break pts: 31 fb pts for 34.1%


DEFENSE

dRtg: 0.70 (adjusted that's 0.66, our fourth straight game with an adjusted dRating under 0.8)
eFG%: 37.7%
3pt%: 13.0% (tremendous number, but how much of it was due to Duke's D? We may never know)
2pt%: 47.6%
%threes: 35.4%
FT rate: 16.9%
DR%: 76.2% (second best DR% of the season)
TO%: 27.7% (fourth straight game over 25%)
a/to: 0.61:1
%assisted: 60.9%
fast break pts: 9 fb pts for 15.5%
block%: 7.7%; 14.3% of 2-point shots


A 33 point win over a not-terrible team. Nothing really to complain about here.

[AtlDuke72]

Behind O'Connell...that kid has twice the energy and given the chance, he'll start dropping in points. Cam is months away from playing consistently at this level.

Somebody needs to remind us how to block posts from someone we just don’t want to hear from.

[OldPhiKap]

Somebody needs to remind us how to block posts from someone we just don’t want to hear from.

I gotta admit — it’s a bold strategy to choose two 30+ point wins to start launching broadsides.

[MCFinARL]

Good news: Pomeroy has our defense up to #5, and just into the 80's (89.9)

Bad news: Our offense slipped from #2 to #3.

Reality check: It's early December, so why am I checking Kenpom multiple times a day on the weekends?

I thought our offense was already number 3, behind Gonzaga and Nevada--no? At least it was number 3 last time I looked; maybe Nevada dropped behind us in the meantime and then when back ahead. Guess I am not checking Kenpom often enough.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

I gotta admit — it’s a bold strategy to choose two 30+ point wins to start launching broadsides.
8870

[MrPoon]

AOC tonight is the backup QB that every team has, which fans cheer for after mop up duty and then want to start. He played his best game in ages. Super stoked about it because his offense will be needed at some point this season and it shows how hard he’s been working. However him starting over Cam is not going to happen. Like at all, at all.

I actually think the future of this team is in Cam’s hands. RJ is nuts, this is his team ultimately, his consistency makes this a top ten team alone. Tre sets the tone for effort and D. Zion is crazy. But for this team to really go where we hope, I think Cam is the guy that breaks open any defensive plan to stop RJ and Zion. His length on D, his shooting and his rebounding take this team into rare space. It’s not guaranteed he does it or gets them there but he, to me is the X factor. AOC is a nice player, but he holds none of that promise.

Wish I could pull the posts every year during this amazing strech of great OADs to see my angst around finals season. Every year at this time the team plays a bit down and every year I worry about it. Overall a great start to the year, D is part of its identity, when have we last said that? Inside scoring is effortless. The FTs need to come, rebounding could be better a bit and Cam needs to find his stroke. All of it will come. This season will be special. How many games will they not be favored in? One, two tops. My prediction now is that Duke will be favored at UNC. We’ll see.

[BLPOG]

8870

"I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things."
- Gordon Gekko

I'll take no-brainers for 500, Alex.

[JNort]

Wish some of his intensity and hustle would run off on Cam. Until it does, Cam should play 6th man.

Um what? Do you watch the games?


This was Yale...not much of a defensive challenge.

Never mind you answered me with this comment.



Behind O'Connell...that kid has twice the energy and given the chance, he'll start dropping in points. Cam is months away from playing consistently at this level.

I love AOC and think he has been under utilized but to wanna take it from Cam (who needs even more time imo) isn't the solution, he's our 2nd most important player behind Tre.

[JBDuke]

Wish some of his intensity and hustle would run off on Cam. Until it does, Cam should play 6th man.


I'd play him behind Javin and Jack right now. He has the highest ceiling but right now he's not playing well. He's struggling to adjust to the physicality of the college game and hence unable to finish on his drives to the rim.


Behind O'Connell...that kid has twice the energy and given the chance, he'll start dropping in points. Cam is months away from playing consistently at this level.

No, maybe, and no.

Javin started today, over Bolden. He and Cam bring very different skill sets to the rotation and aren't really competing for the same minutes. Javin had an excellent game against Hartford and matched up with the Yale team better than Bolden. Who starts between the two of them could easily be dependent on matchups or on who's been working harder in practice or any number of other factors. Javin allows us to be more aggressive on defense, because he's quick enough to switch with just about anyone on the court, whereas Marques is going to struggle against quicker opponents. But Marques has some low post offense (not dependable yet, but getting better), he's a lot longer, and he's stronger than Javin, so he can do things Javin just can't.

Jack has certainly earned however many minutes he's playing, and he's at least in the mix on the wing, but he's really more of an inside-outside guy. Jack rebounds very well, so it's nice to have him nearer the backboard. He's good on the perimeter, too, but he's not as long or quick as Cam. He's making up for it with saavy and hustle, IMO. He's just an okay 3 point shooter - about 31% - but only making about 1.3 a game. He's the classic "glue guy" on this team.

Alex is the bench player whose skill mix makes him the most direct competition for Cam's minutes. He's shooting 39% from 3, which is the same as Cam. (RJ is right behind them at 38%, and Tre right behind him at 37.5%.) Both have shown occasional flashes of mid-range jumpers and can attack the basket, but both take about 2/3 of their shots from 3 point range. But in about twice the average minutes, Cam is averaging three times the assists that Alex is. And on defense, even when he doesn't seem to be as intense as he can be, Cam is better than Alex, whose defense is mediocre for this team. Cam is averaging three times the steals that Alex is, too. When Cam is playing defense well, I think he's our best perimeter defender. (I think Tre is obviously better on the ball, but Cam is better off the ball and can cover more players due to his length and quickness.)

This team can be very special on both offense and defense. On offense, they are already elite on the break, and when they're shooting well, they're very good in the half-court. Their transition D is pretty good - it helps that we're both long and quick, so we make up ground well and can challenge at the rim - but their half-court D has been very good lately, and could become elite as well. A mature, well-disciplined offensive team is going to give them trouble, but they are teams that are going to give almost everyone trouble - that's why they are mature and well-disciplined! I think Cam needs to be a key piece of that. He's as good a perimeter shooter as we have, he moves the ball well in the offense, and he can be our best perimeter defender. As of now, the only thing Alex can do that is close is shoot the 3. And while we need that for balance in our half court offense, he's not better at it than Cam, and the other facets of his game are worse.

The second half from Cam tonight was excellent, IMO. He started hunting easier shots and ended up 4-7 on 2 point attempts and getting a couple of trips to the FT line, where he's one of our best shooters. And I think those tastes of offensive success energized his defense a bit, because he seemed much more disruptive in the second half tonight, too. I suspect he got "coached up" a bit at halftime and took that advice to heart. I hope it sticks.

[jv001]

A good win against a physical basketball team. Not a great team but a decent one. I'm really impressed with our defense because it seems to get us going when we come out flat on offense. Those fast break baskets are a thing of beauty. Are we there yet on offense, No but I believe we'll get there by seasons end. Now for the discussion on who starts. We have a coach that has enough experience to make that call. One who not only sees the guys in game but also in practice. We do not have that luxury. As for Cam, I believe he would be the first one to say that his play has not been up to par. Matter of fact Coach K mentioned his poor play in the first half tonight, but he did complement him on his 2nd half play. I think we have a terrific rotation that fits just what we need. We have 2 super stars in Zion and RJ, we have a great point guard that can guard the ball in Tre, we have a player in Cam that has the reputation of being a very good shooter. Then we have Javin and Marques who compliment each other with different skill sets and after that we have Captain Jack White, the glue man to this team. I think he's the best rebounder on the team because he blocks out. He can play defense on all 5 positions and can shoot the 3 ball. Throw in the GOAT on the bench and we can beat anyone on any night. Well not an NBA team. I'm not getting that stupid stuff started again. :cool: Bring on Texas Tech and let's see how much we improve by then. GoDuke!

Oh, I left out Alex who I think will win a game for us the year with his outside shooting. Can't believe I left him out.

[Steven43]

Every one of my observations about game play has already been made, but want to mention, for all us old-timers, that the Duke court is now painted what I would call "Yale blue" and the Yale players were wearing the older navy blue Duke blue.

Wait a minute. What do you mean the Duke court is now painted “Yale blue”? I thought Yale’s blue has always been very close to a navy blue — like the color of their current jersey. I also thought Duke’s traditional blue was very similar to Yale’s traditional navy blue. I’m confused.

[ratamero]

Honest question to the mods from a new poster: how high is the tolerance for trolling on these boards? There's been some textbook flamebaiting in the last few game threads that I don't remember seeing in my couple of years lurking at the DBR forums.

[porkpa]

I've been watching Duke Basketball for over 50 years. Never before have I seen a team that is so energized and enjoyabe to watch, especially on defense. Do these kids ever get tired?

[JohnJ]

Not seeing it, but reading what you wrote, that is exactly what I figured. That is unusual. I'm guessing K was a little ticked at something. And thanks for the answer
While not seeing the last 5 minutes of the game and seeing the post “Bah Humbug” and you could tell this was referring to the meeting between Coach k and the other coach. What am I missing?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

While not seeing the last 5 minutes of the game and seeing the post “Bah Humbug” and you could tell this was referring to the meeting between Coach k and the other coach. What am I missing?

I don't know what you are missing....but I and the poster I directed this question to were on the same page.

[Saratoga2]

No, maybe, and no.

Javin started today, over Bolden. He and Cam bring very different skill sets to the rotation and aren't really competing for the same minutes. Javin had an excellent game against Hartford and matched up with the Yale team better than Bolden. Who starts between the two of them could easily be dependent on matchups or on who's been working harder in practice or any number of other factors. Javin allows us to be more aggressive on defense, because he's quick enough to switch with just about anyone on the court, whereas Marques is going to struggle against quicker opponents. But Marques has some low post offense (not dependable yet, but getting better), he's a lot longer, and he's stronger than Javin, so he can do things Javin just can't.

Jack has certainly earned however many minutes he's playing, and he's at least in the mix on the wing, but he's really more of an inside-outside guy. Jack rebounds very well, so it's nice to have him nearer the backboard. He's good on the perimeter, too, but he's not as long or quick as Cam. He's making up for it with saavy and hustle, IMO. He's just an okay 3 point shooter - about 31% - but only making about 1.3 a game. He's the classic "glue guy" on this team.

Alex is the bench player whose skill mix makes him the most direct competition for Cam's minutes. He's shooting 39% from 3, which is the same as Cam. (RJ is right behind them at 38%, and Tre right behind him at 37.5%.) Both have shown occasional flashes of mid-range jumpers and can attack the basket, but both take about 2/3 of their shots from 3 point range. But in about twice the average minutes, Cam is averaging three times the assists that Alex is. And on defense, even when he doesn't seem to be as intense as he can be, Cam is better than Alex, whose defense is mediocre for this team. Cam is averaging three times the steals that Alex is, too. When Cam is playing defense well, I think he's our best perimeter defender. (I think Tre is obviously better on the ball, but Cam is better off the ball and can cover more players due to his length and quickness.)


This team can be very special on both offense and defense. On offense, they are already elite on the break, and when they're shooting well, they're very good in the half-court. Their transition D is pretty good - it helps that we're both long and quick, so we make up ground well and can challenge at the rim - but their half-court D has been very good lately, and could become elite as well. A mature, well-disciplined offensive team is going to give them trouble, but they are teams that are going to give almost everyone trouble - that's why they are mature and well-disciplined! I think Cam needs to be a key piece of that. He's as good a perimeter shooter as we have, he moves the ball well in the offense, and he can be our best perimeter defender. As of now, the only thing Alex can do that is close is shoot the 3. And while we need that for balance in our half court offense, he's not better at it than Cam, and the other facets of his game are worse.

The second half from Cam tonight was excellent, IMO. He started hunting easier shots and ended up 4-7 on 2 point attempts and getting a couple of trips to the FT line, where he's one of our best shooters. And I think those tastes of offensive success energized his defense a bit, because he seemed much more disruptive in the second half tonight, too. I suspect he got "coached up" a bit at halftime and took that advice to heart. I hope it sticks.


Coach K in his presser pointed outhow well AOC played, stating he is nearly 6'6", a very good athlete and quick. His defense is improving and he needs to get a little more confidence in his offensive game. I see no need to do a comparison with Cam, as both have established their roles on the team and it is great to have the flexibility they afford.

Jack White's rebounding seems based more than just on hustle. He is strong and a good athlete but what I notice is how he boxes out so well and puts himself in position to be first to the ball. Smart player with a 40 minute motor if needed.

One area that I didn't mention in my earlier post is the fast breaks. Many we ran incredibly well as the ball is never dribbled and there is no way to defend. There was a period where we seemed to think we could do anything we want and forced breaks that weren't there. It got pretty sloppy and I'm sure the kids will be shown those. Don't want to take away their aggressiveness but improve their judgment.

Love the team and hope that we stay clear of injuries this season.

[UrinalCake]

Yale was really disciplined and pushed us for more than a half. They showed the formula for how to beat us, but didn’t have the horses to actually do it. We play such an attacking, high risk/high reward defense that pressures the heck out of the ball handler and makes the easy passes difficult. But if teams can make the difficult pass - finding an open man on the other side of the court or cutting backdoor, then they can get open threes or dunks. We saw Yale get several, but those were offset by the many turnovers we created leading to run out dunks. With that said, Yale missed several wide open threes that could have made this game interesting.

Glad to see Zion make quicker decisions with the ball. Several times we fed him in the post and he immediately made a move to the basket, which Yale had no answer for. Or he would immediately kick it back out to an open shooter. In previous games he would catch it and hold it and wait, allowing the defense to recover. I think him making quicker decisions is a result of the game slowing down for him, allowing him to see the play developing earlier, if that makes any sense.

His three point shot looks bad though. Like Duval-level bad. He kind of flicks the ball without a lot of touch. Anyways, it hasn’t really been a problem, he can still overpower his defender when they back off of him, but his game would be expanded tremendously if he could hit 35%. Unfortunately that’s unlikely to happen this season.

Glad we have a nice break before Texas Tech. Jones is banged up and Javin also took a hard fall when he got tied up with a Yale player and they both fell with Javin underneath. It’s tough for the fans but a welcome break for the players as they take finals.

One last observation - there’s a whole lot more dunking that happens in pregame warmups than I’m accustomed to seeing. I attribute it to the Zion effect, everyone wants to show they can throw down too. Even Buckmire was attempting dunks in the layup line!

[COYS]

I’ve stablished myself as a pretty big fan of Cam’s defense. I think he’s better than he gets credit for. There was a stretch from around the 8:00 to the 6:45 mark in which he made FOUR slick defensive plays in a row. He broke up two Yale fast breaks on his own (he’s gotten into a habit of doing that), one by forcing a kick out to the corner on a driving Yalie and then recovering so quickly to the corner that he altered the otherwise open three point shot. Then he used his length to deflect a pass for a would-be dunk on the next possession. Then he got a steal which led to a Duke dunk. Then he repeated his performance from the first fast break, although this particular Yale run out came off of Cam’s own errant pass.

Anyway, Cam is, in my opinion, an absolutely elite defensive player who is only getting better on that end. If he hit his threes tonight, he’d be my MOTM. I do think he can get better on the offensive end. He clearly needs to figure out how to put all his skills together. But his defense is really, really good and getting better.

[sagegrouse]

K said Delaurier started because they wanted to switch 1 thru 5. May want to do that against Princeton, too, but I wouldn't assume Delaurier is always the starter.

Got a kick out of foul-prone Javin at start of game. 13 seconds and he had his first foul. He appeared to settle down afterwards and had a good game.

[sagegrouse]

Um what? Do you watch the games?



Never mind you answered me with this comment.




I love AOC and think he has been under utilized but to wanna take it from Cam (who needs even more time imo) isn't the solution, he's our 2nd most important player behind Tre.

You know you are feeding the troll and seem OK with it.

[DukieInBrasil]

I love AOC and think he has been under utilized but to wanna take it from Cam (who needs even more time imo) isn't the solution, he's our 2nd most important player behind Tre.

Cam is certainly more important than some of his detractors are claiming, and he certainly should not be replaced in the starting lineup by AOC. I could see starting J-White over him, but i don't think it's either necessary or particularly desirable to do that.
However, i disagree that he's our 2nd most important player. He's 4th or maybe even 5th most important behind Tre (as you mentioned) Zion, RJ, and maybe J-White, who has been an absolute beast on the boards. Importance is not strictly about points scored, but efficiency and Cam is just not very efficient (so far), and rebounding and setting up other players, and Zion and RJ bring more of that than Cam. Cam's defense is good, and he's a good thief poaching the passing lanes which is important, but it doesn't make him the 2nd most important player, IMHO.

[TKG]

I was surprised to read the box score this morning and learn that RJB logged 36 minutes. Seems like heavy minutes.

[uh_no]

One last observation - there’s a whole lot more dunking that happens in pregame warmups than I’m accustomed to seeing. I attribute it to the Zion effect, everyone wants to show they can throw down too. Even Buckmire was attempting dunks in the layup line!

they changed the rules a couple years ago. it used to be you couldn't touch the rim after the refs came out on the floor. that's no longer the case.

[WVDUKEFAN]

I haven’t watched the game. I’m going to today, but by looking at the box score, I think there is argument to be made for starting Jack White. He’s had very strong stats all year.

[dukelifer]

Cam is certainly more important than some of his detractors are claiming, and he certainly should not be replaced in the starting lineup by AOC. I could see starting J-White over him, but i don't think it's either necessary or particularly desirable to do that.
However, i disagree that he's our 2nd most important player. He's 4th or maybe even 5th most important behind Tre (as you mentioned) Zion, RJ, and maybe J-White, who has been an absolute beast on the boards. Importance is not strictly about points scored, but efficiency and Cam is just not very efficient (so far), and rebounding and setting up other players, and Zion and RJ bring more of that than Cam. Cam's defense is good, and he's a good thief poaching the passing lanes which is important, but it doesn't make him the 2nd most important player, IMHO.

Cam’s Freshman season on the offensive end is reminding me of Kennard’s. He has great games followed by clunkers. You can see the shooting skills but consistency is an issue and no one is sure why. Unlike Luke, he can be a difference maker on D as he is long and tends to get his hands on a lot of balls. He will get better with time but it is nice that AOC or Jack can come in as needed. Cam is brilliant player but has not figured out how to be consistent. It makes RJ’s and Zion’s starts even that more impressive.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I haven’t watched the game. I’m going to today, but by looking at the box score, I think there is argument to be made for starting Jack White. He’s had very strong stats all year.

...which is actually an argument for using him just like they are......he's getting starter minutes.....but functions well off the bench.

[MrPoon]

I was surprised to read the box score this morning and learn that RJB logged 36 minutes. Seems like heavy minutes.

Saw that too. I wonder if it was because of Tre out he wanted Cam and RJ to bring up the ball more. Or long upcoming layoff permitted extra min. Lastly it could be to reward a great overall game and get him to 30 pts. RJ is such a special player. I think I read he has more points than any freshman at this point in the season. He’s become more efficient in the last few games and if he’d just hit his #(*)&#$ FTs! Well that would be unfair.

[SoCalDukeFan]

I've been watching Duke Basketball for over 50 years. Never before have I seen a team that is so energized and enjoyabe to watch, especially on defense. Do these kids ever get tired?

I too have been watching Duke for over 50 years. I have very fond memories of players and past teams and would not want to have to chose absolute favorites.

However this team is really fun to watch. My interest in Duke basketball was on the decline as the OADS meant less connection to the players and the basketball was just not as good as the past.

Interest is back at a high level now.

SoCal

[MChambers]

Saw that too. I wonder if it was because of Tre out he wanted Cam and RJ to bring up the ball more. Or long upcoming layoff permitted extra min. Lastly it could be to reward a great overall game and get him to 30 pts. RJ is such a special player. I think I read he has more points than any freshman at this point in the season. He’s become more efficient in the last few games and if he’d just hit his #(*)&#$ FTs! Well that would be unfair.

I suspect he played that much because Jones wasn’t available the last minutes or so and K wanted RJ to play point.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I suspect he played that much because Jones wasn’t available the last minutes or so and K wanted RJ to play point.

K said in his post game (just watched it) that Tre could have gone back in...but with a knee knock and a quad getting hit....he wanted to rest him....but K said he'll be okay.

[BandAlum83]

Regarding Jack White.

I watched him even more closely last night then usual. It wasn't hard, I've been a fan of his from the beginning.

What I saw, however, was surprising. Jack seems to have a preternatural ability to not only be well positioned for rebounds, he also has the ability to time his jumps perfectly to come down with the ball. When the ball hangs on the rim, he isn't jumping with everyone else. He is jumping as others are coming down. It's like he naturally calculates the carom of the ball in real time and jumps at just the right time and in the right direction.

He isn't jumping higher, necessarily. He's jumping better!

[Neals384]

Regarding Jack White.

I watched him even more closely last night then usual. It wasn't hard, I've been a fan of his from the beginning.

What I saw, however, was surprising. Jack seems to have a preternatural ability to not only be well positioned for rebounds, he also has the ability to time his jumps perfectly to come down with the ball. When the ball hangs on the rim, he isn't jumping with everyone else. He is jumping as others are coming down. It's like he naturally calculates the carom of the ball in real time and jumps at just the right time and in the right direction.

He isn't jumping higher, necessarily. He's jumping better!

This. Pretty much what I said in the Jack Whie thread:

Jack has turned into an absolute ball magnet. If there is a long rebound and 3 guys go after it, Jack always seems to come out with the ball. He has a knack for timing his jump just right. And once he gets the ball, no one's going to steal it.




https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/clear.gif (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/newreply.php?do=newreply&p=1105105)

[jv001]

Regarding Jack White.

I watched him even more closely last night then usual. It wasn't hard, I've been a fan of his from the beginning.

What I saw, however, was surprising. Jack seems to have a preternatural ability to not only be well positioned for rebounds, he also has the ability to time his jumps perfectly to come down with the ball. When the ball hangs on the rim, he isn't jumping with everyone else. He is jumping as others are coming down. It's like he naturally calculates the carom of the ball in real time and jumps at just the right time and in the right direction.

He isn't jumping higher, necessarily. He's jumping better!

I think Captain Jack has some kangaroo in him. :cool: But I agree with everything you said and I too could see it coming last season. GoDuke!

[lotusland]

Regarding Jack White.

I watched him even more closely last night then usual. It wasn't hard, I've been a fan of his from the beginning.

What I saw, however, was surprising. Jack seems to have a preternatural ability to not only be well positioned for rebounds, he also has the ability to time his jumps perfectly to come down with the ball. When the ball hangs on the rim, he isn't jumping with everyone else. He is jumping as others are coming down. It's like he naturally calculates the carom of the ball in real time and jumps at just the right time and in the right direction.

He isn't jumping higher, necessarily. He's jumping better!

Jack also got a couple of blocks that were surprising in that he didn’t seem to be in great position but still managed to get the ball cleanly. 3 steals too!

[JBDuke]

Coach K in his presser pointed outhow well AOC played, stating he is nearly 6'6", a very good athlete and quick. His defense is improving and he needs to get a little more confidence in his offensive game. I see no need to do a comparison with Cam, as both have established their roles on the team and it is great to have the flexibility they afford.

Jack White's rebounding seems based more than just on hustle. He is strong and a good athlete but what I notice is how he boxes out so well and puts himself in position to be first to the ball. Smart player with a 40 minute motor if needed.

One area that I didn't mention in my earlier post is the fast breaks. Many we ran incredibly well as the ball is never dribbled and there is no way to defend. There was a period where we seemed to think we could do anything we want and forced breaks that weren't there. It got pretty sloppy and I'm sure the kids will be shown those. Don't want to take away their aggressiveness but improve their judgment.

Love the team and hope that we stay clear of injuries this season.

I agree with Coach K - right now, Alex is playing the best basketball we've seen him play. He's getting better on defense - from pretty weak to at least passable, and having other strong defenders around him means that when he gambles, the D can recover. He has always had good size and athleticism for a collegiate guard, and he's got a nice shot. The reason I was comparing him to Cam was because in the posts I was replying to, prior posters had suggested that Alex should be starting over Cam. Regardless of whether he's starting, he's clearly in the rotation, and if Cam continues to struggle with his 3 pointers, Alex is a potent alternative off the bench to fill that role.

My point about Jack's hustle wasn't about his rebounding - sorry if that wasn't clear. His rebounding is excellent, as many have noted. My point was regarding his perimeter defense. Again, this was comparing him to Cam in response to other posters. Jack is effective guarding on the perimeter even though he isn't as long or quick as Cam, and I think he's doing so through smart positioning, hustle, and good timing. He seems to do a good job of picking when to go over or under a screener. His timing and jumping has allowed him to block a ball from behind even after getting beat to the basket. He's really playing great ball right now in just about every way we need him to. Like I said before - a real glue guy.

Your point about fast breaks is valid. It's one aspect of this team that can be absolutely elite. It's already very, very good. Even elite fast break teams are going to screw one up now and then, so I'm not too worried about it, as long as we don't have too many 1-on-4 fast break attempts...

[Kedsy]

Regardless of whether he's starting, he's clearly in the rotation...

Not sure about that. In games decided by fewer than 20 points, he's averaging 3 mpg.


Cam’s Freshman season on the offensive end is reminding me of Kennard’s. He has great games followed by clunkers. You can see the shooting skills but consistency is an issue and no one is sure why.

Maybe, but I think you're selling Cam way short. After his first 10 collegiate games, Luke Kennard was shooting 25.6% from three. After his first 10 collegiate games, Cam is shooting 39.2% from three. Huuuuuuge difference.

[JBDuke]

Not sure about that. In games decided by fewer than 20 points, he's averaging 3 mpg...

Small sample size. So far, that's just two games - Auburn and Gonzaga. We'll see how things progress, as Coach K frequently tightens up the rotations. Will Alex, the second big (Javin or Marques), Jack, and Jordan continue to to average 10+ minutes? Maybe, but I doubt it. Jordan's time probably depends on how much of a minutes burden Tre can bear. Alex is probably the next most likely candidate to lose minutes, unless Marques goes back into a funk or Javin returns to fouling at unsustainable rates.

[Kedsy]

Small sample size. So far, that's just two games - Auburn and Gonzaga. We'll see how things progress, as Coach K frequently tightens up the rotations. Will Alex, the second big (Javin or Marques), Jack, and Jordan continue to to average 10+ minutes? Maybe, but I doubt it. Jordan's time probably depends on how much of a minutes burden Tre can bear. Alex is probably the next most likely candidate to lose minutes, unless Marques goes back into a funk or Javin returns to fouling at unsustainable rates.

I get that it's just two games, but if the past is an accurate predictor of the future then those two games will more accurately represent the post-January, non-blowout rotation than the eight 20+ point blowouts in which Alex and Jordan have played. Absent injury or extreme foul trouble, history suggests K is probably only going to give rotation minutes to 7 guys. Alex is the 8th guy and Jordan is the 9th. To me, the math is pretty clear.

Now, if K starts playing Zion-at-center lineups for half the game, obviating the need to have two "true" centers in the rotation, and Alex passes Marques or Javin on the depth chart, then Alex would be in the rotation and the "new" 8th man won't. But we haven't seen any evidence of that so far.

As a comparison, I went back and looked at the 2000-01 team's first 10 games. Seven of those were 20+ blowouts, three were not.

In the seven blowouts, Nick Horvath played 10+ mpg (in 5 games before he got hurt), Andre Sweet played 11+ mpg, Matt Christensen played almost 9 mpg, Andre Buckner played around 5 mpg, Reggie Love played 3+ mpg (in 3 games after football season ended) and JD Simpson played around 3 mpg. In the three closer games, those six players combined for 7 minutes total (2+ mpg for the lot of them). Which set of games do you think more accurately predicted the non-blowout rotation after January 1?

[devilsadvocate85]

I would be surprised to see Jack move into the starting lineup unless we have a significant injury. He can come in off the bench for any of the starters and fill the role of 4 of them (Tre being the exception). It makes him the perfect 6th man for this team and my early prediction for conference 6th man of the year (if there is such an award - didn’t feel like looking it up).

[MartyClark]

I would be surprised to see Jack move into the starting lineup unless we have a significant injury. He can come in off the bench for any of the starters and fill the role of 4 of them (Tre being the exception). It makes him the perfect 6th man for this team and my early prediction for conference 6th man of the year (if there is such an award - didn’t feel like looking it up).

I like the idea of a "supersub". (Anyone remember John Laskowski on the old Indiana Hoosier teams?) I agree that Jack is the perfect 6th man for this team.

[chrishoke]

I like the idea of a "supersub". (Anyone remember John Laskowski on the old Indiana Hoosier teams?) I agree that Jack is the perfect 6th man for this team.

Anyone remember David Henderson?

[devildeac]

Anyone remember David Henderson?

Nate James for a while, too, IIRC.

[Kedsy]

Nate James for a while, too, IIRC.

Jon Scheyer in 2007-08.

[OldPhiKap]

Anyone remember David Henderson?

This, exactly.

[Devilwin]

Better practice those free throws.....Daily....For hours on end...:mad:

[UrinalCake]

K said in his post game (just watched it) that Tre could have gone back in...but with a knee knock and a quad getting hit...he wanted to rest him...but K said he'll be okay.

This doesn't quite add up. Tre actually did go back into the game with a few minutes left, subbing in for Barrett. And then on the very next stoppage (maybe 10 seconds later) he came out and Barrett went right back in. If what K said was actually true, then you would think he would either a.) not put Tre in in the first place, or b.) leave him in for longer. It looked to me like Jones needed to sort of test things out and as soon as he got on the court he realized he couldn't go and so he signaled to be taken out.


I suspect he played that much because Jones wasn’t available the last minutes or so and K wanted RJ to play point.

That was my thought as well, especially based off the substitution I just described. Plus Barrett sort of took over the game after Tre went out so it made sense to leave him in while he was on a roll.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This doesn't quite add up. Tre actually did go back into the game with a few minutes left, subbing in for Barrett. And then on the very next stoppage (maybe 10 seconds later) he came out and Barrett went right back in. If what K said was actually true, then you would think he would either a.) not put Tre in in the first place, or b.) leave him in for longer. It looked to me like Jones needed to sort of test things out and as soon as he got on the court he realized he couldn't go and so he signaled to be taken out.


Go watch the post game and figure it out

[DU82]

This doesn't quite add up. Tre actually did go back into the game with a few minutes left, subbing in for Barrett. And then on the very next stoppage (maybe 10 seconds later) he came out and Barrett went right back in. If what K said was actually true, then you would think he would either a.) not put Tre in in the first place, or b.) leave him in for longer. It looked to me like Jones needed to sort of test things out and as soon as he got on the court he realized he couldn't go and so he signaled to be taken out.


After Tre came out after his 10 second stint, he and Jose went to the locker room, or at least out of the seating bowl. I presume they went for an x-ray and it was negative. (IIRC, there’s a machine somewhere in Cameron.)

[Pghdukie]

Was it my imagination but did I hear the Crazies yelling "Who's your Daddy" toward Zion after a slam ? Any one know ?

[Steven43]

K said in his post game (just watched it) that Tre could have gone back in...but with a knee knock and a quad getting hit...he wanted to rest him...but K said he'll be okay.

I’m not sure how Coach could really know the extent of Tre’s possible injuries — Tre might not even know— but I certainly hope he’s right. I would like to see him sit out the Princeton game just to be sure. We shall see.

[Billy Dat]

Saw that too. I wonder if it was because of Tre out he wanted Cam and RJ to bring up the ball more. Or long upcoming layoff permitted extra min. Lastly it could be to reward a great overall game and get him to 30 pts. RJ is such a special player. I think I read he has more points than any freshman at this point in the season. He’s become more efficient in the last few games and if he’d just hit his #(*)&#$ FTs! Well that would be unfair.

I actually thought RJ regressed a little in terms of moving the ball and being more efficient. In the middle portion of the game, last 10 of first and first 10 of second half, he was gunning, basically deciding he was going to shoot as soon as he caught the ball, and not always because he was open. If you want to nitpick this team, our halfcourt offense isn’t pretty...way too much one-on-one before the ball ever moves. I know that we are pushing pace and K may be telling him to gun, but I think the collective effort on D, which has been outstanding, needs to be re-enforced by more guys touching the ball on O. RJ is a hugely important bucket getter for us, and we need to develop him as such, but it would be great if he was less of a black hole.

Tre Jones is our most valuable player.

This team is crazy athletic for most of our 1-8. Jack, Javin and AOC are very good athletes and Bolden is long. We wear teams out.

[uh_no]

Was it my imagination but did I hear the Crazies yelling "Who's your Daddy" toward Zion after a slam ? Any one know ?

it's largely been used for blocks, but i wasn't at the came so can't comment on this instance.

[Steven43]

I actually thought RJ regressed a little in terms of moving the ball and being more efficient. In the middle portion of the game, last 10 of first and first 10 of second half, he was gunning, basically deciding he was going to shoot as soon as he caught the ball, and not always because he was open. RJ is a hugely important bucket getter for us, and we need to develop him as such, but it would be great if he was less of a black hole.

Tre Jones is our most valuable player.

This team is crazy athletic for most of our 1-8. Jack, Javin and AOC are very good athletes and Bolden is long. We wear teams out.
Not sure if Tre is “most valuable” — I don’t see how any of Duke’s players can be considered more valuable than Zion, who probably has the inside track on being the National Player of the Year. But Tre is definitely THE guy Duke cannot lose if they are to challenge for the ACC championship and for the Final Four and beyond.

As for RJ, I don’t think Duke has had a player who lets fly as sometimes cavalierly and frequently as he does. It concerns me, especially when there are so many good offensive players all around him. I think it could lead to a little bit of resentment and guys just sort of standing around when he has the ball, if he does not dial it back a bit.

[subzero02]

Not sure if Tre is “most valuable” — I don’t see how any of Duke’s players can be considered more valuable than Zion, who probably has the inside track on being the National Player of the Year. But Tre is definitely THE guy Duke cannot lose if they are to challenge for the ACC championship and for the Final Four and beyond.

As for RJ, I don’t think Duke has had a player who lets fly as sometimes cavalierly and frequently as he does. It concerns me, especially when there are so many good offensive players all around him. I think it could lead to a little bit of resentment and guys just sort of standing around when he has the ball, if he does not dial it back a bit.

I'd say that most valuable player equates to the player that a team can least afford to lose. In my opinion, Zion and RJ are contenders for MOP (most outstanding player, ie best player) and Tre, Zion and RJ are in the running for MVP, with Tre leading the way right now. Conference play is going to be brutal this year; team defense will determine our success and Tre is our defensive spear. He's not too shabby on the offensive end either.

[JNort]

Cam is certainly more important than some of his detractors are claiming, and he certainly should not be replaced in the starting lineup by AOC. I could see starting J-White over him, but i don't think it's either necessary or particularly desirable to do that.
However, i disagree that he's our 2nd most important player. He's 4th or maybe even 5th most important behind Tre (as you mentioned) Zion, RJ, and maybe J-White, who has been an absolute beast on the boards. Importance is not strictly about points scored, but efficiency and Cam is just not very efficient (so far), and rebounding and setting up other players, and Zion and RJ bring more of that than Cam. Cam's defense is good, and he's a good thief poaching the passing lanes which is important, but it doesn't make him the 2nd most important player, IMHO.

Our biggest weakness is our 3 point shooting and Cam is supposed to be a real shooter from deep. If we wanna go far this season its gonna come down to him finding his rhythm and Tre being healthy.

[Devilwin]

Our biggest weakness is our 3 point shooting and Cam is supposed to be a real shooter from deep. If we wanna go far this season its gonna come down to him finding his rhythm and Tre being healthy.

I agree the three point shooting is a major concern, but the free throw shooting is equally important. It's gonna cost us in the long run if we don't do something about it. We get to the line a lot with our aggressive play, and need to take advantage.

[-jk]

Was it my imagination but did I hear the Crazies yelling "Who's your Daddy" toward Zion after a slam ? Any one know ?

I believe it was after a Zion block.

-jk

[Billy Dat]

One thing I loved hearing during the broadcast was that when SI showed up to shoot the "Fabbest Five" cover, they originally only invited the "Core Four" and Zion respectfully insisted that Joey Baker be included.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

One thing I loved hearing during the broadcast was that when SI showed up to shoot the "Fabbest Five" cover, they originally only invited the "Core Four" and Zion respectfully insisted that Joey Baker be included.

I loved hearing it too.....the first five times........lately these noob announcers to Cameron talk about it as if it's breaking news....

[gotoguy]

This, exactly.

In addition to his many on court talents, David Henderson also drove a school bus while in high school.

[Steven43]

In addition to his many on court talents, David Henderson also drove a school bus while in high school.
Oh lord, someone thought it a fine idea to allow a high school kid to drive a school bus?? Do you know in which town this was? Thanks, and sorry DBR for the digression.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Oh lord, someone thought it a fine idea to allow a high school kid to drive a school bus?? Do you know in which town this was? Thanks, and sorry DBR for the digression.

Used to be very common place. Traffic was less of an issue back then in most places. I had two older brothers who did it. Everyone was fine with it. (but I also digress).

Loved David Henderson. He and Alarie were so exhausted against Louisville they just couldn't get their shots to go down late....second best team in the nation was Kansas, and I think Duke beat them in an early big time tournament where Henderson was MVP I think....and then had to beat them again in the semis in 86, in an exhausting game. 86 was BETTER than Louisville and Pervis. My fave Duke team of all (so far).

[Troublemaker]

Not sure if Tre is “most valuable” — I don’t see how any of Duke’s players can be considered more valuable than Zion, who probably has the inside track on being the National Player of the Year. But Tre is definitely THE guy Duke cannot lose if they are to challenge for the ACC championship and for the Final Four and beyond.


I'd say that most valuable player equates to the player that a team can least afford to lose. In my opinion, Zion and RJ are contenders for MOP (most outstanding player, ie best player) and Tre, Zion and RJ are in the running for MVP, with Tre leading the way right now. Conference play is going to be brutal this year; team defense will determine our success and Tre is our defensive spear. He's not too shabby on the offensive end either.

I enjoy these discussions, especially in seasons when we're really good. (I think I recall a fantastic Battier vs JWill thread back in 2001).

It might help to flesh out what the 7-man rotations would look like:


(Without Zion)


Tre



RJ
Alex


Cam



Jack



Javin
Marques



(Without Tre)


Cam



RJ
Alex


Jack



Zion



Javin
Marques





It's close, but I think I would take the "Without Tre" (the With Zion) lineup. 90% of the time, I'd go with the lineup that has the true PG, but Zion is just so unique and dynamic. I think he's slightly more irreplaceable on this team, and I think there would be enough ball-handling and passing left over (with Zion being a big contributor in those areas) for "Without Tre" to still be a top-10 team. Heck, maybe even top-5 still.

[BandAlum83]

Not sure if Tre is “most valuable” — I don’t see how any of Duke’s players can be considered more valuable than Zion, who probably has the inside track on being the National Player of the Year. But Tre is definitely THE guy Duke cannot lose if they are to challenge for the ACC championship and for the Final Four and beyond.

As for RJ, I don’t think Duke has had a player who lets fly as sometimes cavalierly and frequently as he does. It concerns me, especially when there are so many good offensive players all around him. I think it could lead to a little bit of resentment and guys just sort of standing around when he has the ball, if he does not dial it back a bit.

A black hole? My goodness, how did he have 17 assists in his last 3 games?

Have we gotten that spoiled?

[azzefkram]

I enjoy these discussions, especially in seasons when we're really good. (I think I recall a fantastic Battier vs JWill thread back in 2001).

It might help to flesh out what the 7-man rotations would look like:


(Without Zion)


Tre



RJ
Alex


Cam



Jack



Javin
Marques



(Without Tre)


Cam



RJ
Alex


Jack



Zion



Javin
Marques





It's close, but I think I would take the "Without Tre" (the With Zion) lineup. 90% of the time, I'd go with the lineup that has the true PG, but Zion is just so unique and dynamic. I think he's slightly more irreplaceable on this team, and I think there would be enough ball-handling and passing left over (with Zion being a big contributor in those areas) for "Without Tre" to still be a top-10 team. Heck, maybe even top-5 still.

I'm with you for the offense but defensively might be a tad dicey. Tre does a great job hounding the opposing point.

[uh_no]

A black hole? My goodness, how did he have 17 assists in his last 3 games?

Have we gotten that spoiled?

he was during the gonzaga game. the offense has notably run differently since then and RJ has become significantly more efficient.

[BandAlum83]

I enjoy these discussions, especially in seasons when we're really good. (I think I recall a fantastic Battier vs JWill thread back in 2001).

It might help to flesh out what the 7-man rotations would look like:


(Without Zion)


Tre



RJ
Alex


Cam



Jack



Javin
Marques



(Without Tre)


Cam



RJ
Alex


Jack



Zion



Javin
Marques





It's close, but I think I would take the "Without Tre" (the With Zion) lineup. 90% of the time, I'd go with the lineup that has the true PG, but Zion is just so unique and dynamic. I think he's slightly more irreplaceable on this team, and I think there would be enough ball-handling and passing left over (with Zion being a big contributor in those areas) for "Without Tre" to still be a top-10 team. Heck, maybe even top-5 still.

If I am reading correctly, the without Tre lineup is actually our highest +/- this season at +90.1 per forty minutes.

The without Zion is at 0 +/1

Small sample sizes, of course. And I wouldn't say we shouldn't play Tre based on this, of course.it does support, however, that Zion is probably more valuable at this point in time.

There hasn't been much on-court time when Goldwire wasn't on the floor when Tre wasn't. So I'm not sure what the likely lineup would be without Tre (if he had an injury, for instance. If he is held out against Princeton as a precaution, we could see.

[DukeDevil]

A black hole? My goodness, how did he have 17 assists in his last 3 games?

Have we gotten that spoiled?

"You must spread some comments around before commenting on BandAlum83 again"

Thanks for reminding everyone. These guys are all progressing well and transitioning from being "the man." I think the progress has been great. I don't remember the last time I had THIS much fun watching games.

[Steven43]

"You must spread some comments around before commenting on BandAlum83 again"

Thanks for reminding everyone. These guys are all progressing well and transitioning from being "the man." I think the progress has been great. I don't remember the last time I had THIS much fun watching games.

I’m not sure what BandAlum83 was supposedly reminding us of. I was simply saying that I think RJ’s shot selection and usage rate have been questionable throughout much of the season. That’s not exactly going out on a limb. He’s a talented player, but I think for Duke to reach its potential as a team and for RJ to reach his potential as both a college and NBA player, he needs to play within the flow of the offense. Team-oriented basketball is this team’s salvation. Food for thought:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/college-basketball/2018/11/29/18116769/rj-barrett-duke-zion-williamson

[Fish80]

I’m not sure what BandAlum83 was supposedly reminding us of. I was simply saying that I think RJ’s shot selection and usage rate have been questionable throughout much of the season. That’s not exactly going out on a limb. He’s a talented player, but I think for Duke to reach its potential as a team and for RJ to reach his potential as both a college and NBA player, he needs to play within the flow of the offense. Team-oriented basketball is this team’s salvation. Food for thought:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/college-basketball/2018/11/29/18116769/rj-barrett-duke-zion-williamson

RJ played "pretty good" the last couple of games, highly efficient you might say, see excerpt from GoDuke.com article:

"DURHAM, N.C. – Duke freshman RJ Barrett swept the ACC Basketball weekly awards, earning both Player and Freshman of the Week. Barrett repeats as Freshman of the Week and it marks the second time a Blue Devil has swept the awards this season.

Barrett averaged a double-double as No. 2 Duke (9-1) extended its winning streak to four games with a pair of non-conference wins last week. The rookie poured in 28.5 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists, including a 30-point effort against Yale and a career-best 15-rebound performance against Hartford.

In the Yale win, he became the first freshman in Duke history to post a 30-5-5 game with his 30-point, 7-rebound, 6-assist effort in the 91-58 victory. In 36 minutes against Hartford, Barrett was an efficient 10-of-14 from the field and 3-of-4 from three-point range, scoring 27 points, with 15 rebounds and four assists for his first career double-double."

[BandAlum83]

I’m not sure what BandAlum83 was supposedly reminding us of. I was simply saying that I think RJ’s shot selection and usage rate have been questionable throughout much of the season. That’s not exactly going out on a limb. He’s a talented player, but I think for Duke to reach its potential as a team and for RJ to reach his potential as both a college and NBA player, he needs to play within the flow of the offense. Team-oriented basketball is this team’s salvation. Food for thought:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/college-basketball/2018/11/29/18116769/rj-barrett-duke-zion-williamson

<sigh>

Some things are just not worth the effort.

[bullettoothtony]

R.J. is the best player in the country already. And he's going to keep getting better.

[Billy Dat]

RJ played "pretty good" the last couple of games, highly efficient you might say, see excerpt from GoDuke.com article:

"DURHAM, N.C. – Duke freshman RJ Barrett swept the ACC Basketball weekly awards, earning both Player and Freshman of the Week."

As someone who nitpicked RJ in this thread I offer a respone.

In some ways, nitpicks need to be disclaimed.

I think this Duke team is incredible.

I think Tre, Zion and RJ are very much equally the key to the team.

I think RJ is amazing front man whose offensive production has been on the highest level this year.

I recognize that he draws a lot of fouls, too.

His gravity provides many opportunities to hit guys for open shots which might help a guy like Reddish get in the flow earlier and more consistently. RJ works hard for his buckets, he would find it even easier to score if he was equally a threat to pass.

[devilseven]

His gravity provides many opportunities to hit guys for open shots which might help a guy like Reddish get in the flow earlier and more consistently. RJ works hard for his buckets, he would find it even easier to score if he was equally a threat to pass.

RJ led the team in assists with 6 against Yale. He is second only to Jones for total season assists. I'd say he can and does pass.

[Troublemaker]

I get that it's just two games, but if the past is an accurate predictor of the future then those two games will more accurately represent the post-January, non-blowout rotation than the eight 20+ point blowouts in which Alex and Jordan have played. Absent injury or extreme foul trouble, history suggests K is probably only going to give rotation minutes to 7 guys. Alex is the 8th guy and Jordan is the 9th. To me, the math is pretty clear.

Our past two national champs did manage to get to 8 men in the rotation. The "8 Is Enough" 2015 champs memorably got some key contributions from 8th man Grayson Allen in some big games, as did the 2010 champs with 8th man Andre Dawkins.

My gut feeling says Alex is going to be in the rotation. Maybe Coach in his old age is letting loose a little bit when he's coaching a team the caliber of 2010, 2015, and 2019(?).

[NSDukeFan]

Our past two national champs did manage to get to 8 men in the rotation. The "8 Is Enough" 2015 champs memorably got some key contributions from 8th man Grayson Allen in some big games, as did the 2010 champs with 8th man Andre Dawkins.

My gut feeling says Alex is going to be in the rotation. Maybe Coach in his old age is letting loose a little bit when he's coaching a team the caliber of 2010, 2015, and 2019(?).

I think you could both be right, in that I think Kedsy is a little stringent with his more than 10 minutes in close games after January. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alex or another 8 man averaged 9-12 minutes per game with some games of only 5-8 minutes in close games. That’s in the rotation to me.

[sagegrouse]

I think you could both be right, in that I think Kedsy is a little stringent with his more than 10 minutes in close games after January. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alex or another 8 man averaged 9-12 minutes per game with some games of only 5-8 minutes in close games. That’s in the rotation to me.

Amen. It is OK under some circumstances to "censor" your data for suspected reporting errors, one-of-a-kind circumstances and such. But to throw away all November and December games and then all games where Duke wins by 20 or more strikes me as the Sargasso Sea of data analysis. It is a tangled mess of inference. I would keep it clean, and although there is still some need for judgment, confer "in the rotation" status to all players with 300 minutes or more, or some such standard of experience (10 mins. per game, or so forth). Surely players who meet such a standard are in a position to gain meaningful experience and to make a substantial contribution to a Duke basketball season.

Perhaps it is simply the case that I have countered more wily academics inclined to shape the data to meet their preconceived notions and, therefore, confirm their pet theories.

[Kedsy]

Our past two national champs did manage to get to 8 men in the rotation. The "8 Is Enough" 2015 champs memorably got some key contributions from 8th man Grayson Allen in some big games, as did the 2010 champs with 8th man Andre Dawkins.

My gut feeling says Alex is going to be in the rotation. Maybe Coach in his old age is letting loose a little bit when he's coaching a team the caliber of 2010, 2015, and 2019(?).


I think you could both be right, in that I think Kedsy is a little stringent with his more than 10 minutes in close games after January. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alex or another 8 man averaged 9-12 minutes per game with some games of only 5-8 minutes in close games. That’s in the rotation to me.

NSDukeFan is probably right, it's all in the definition of "in the rotation."

For example, in the last five games of the NCAA tournament, Andre Dawkins reached 10 minutes in only one game. In three of the five games, he played 5 or fewer minutes. That doesn't seem like in the rotation to me, but maybe it does to you. I can certainly see Alex getting that kind of usage in big games.

[Steven43]

As someone who nitpicked RJ in this thread I offer a respone.

In some ways, nitpicks need to be disclaimed.

I think this Duke team is incredible.

I think Tre, Zion and RJ are very much equally the key to the team.

I think RJ is amazing front man whose offensive production has been on the highest level this year.

I recognize that he draws a lot of fouls, too.

His gravity provides many opportunities to hit guys for open shots which might help a guy like Reddish get in the flow earlier and more consistently. RJ works hard for his buckets, he would find it even easier to score if he was equally a threat to pass.
I agree that RJ is a VERY important player and is darn good overall. But I’m taking the long view and not focusing on any one game (like Yale for instance). Since he gets fouled often it would be great if he could nudge his FT percentage up from its current 63% into the 75-80% range. I think he can do it; his FT form looks solid.

And I still say he and the team would benefit tremendously from a tad better shot selection and getting his usage rate down. These are things that are very much in his control. He is super talented and seems quite smart and I would bet he recognizes these areas that need a bit of work and he will get it done. I’m a big fan of RJ and Duke is fortunate to have him as a student.

[Kedsy]

Amen. It is OK under some circumstances to "censor" your data for suspected reporting errors, one-of-a-kind circumstances and such. But to throw away all November and December games and then all games where Duke wins by 20 or more strikes me as the Sargasso Sea of data analysis. It is a tangled mess of inference. I would keep it clean, and although there is still some need for judgment, confer "in the rotation" status to all players with 300 minutes or more, or some such standard of experience (10 mins. per game, or so forth). Surely players who meet such a standard are in a position to gain meaningful experience and to make a substantial contribution to a Duke basketball season.

Perhaps it is simply the case that I have countered more wily academics inclined to shape the data to meet their preconceived notions and, therefore, confirm their pet theories.

I disagree. Guys who get in the game during November/December experimentation time but after that only in garbage time are not "in the rotation" to me.

I didn't "datafit" my criteria. Everyone said K tightened his rotation once ACC play starts. If a guy only played 6 or 8 minutes, people complained that K wasn't playing him, so I figured 10 minutes was a reasonable measure for who is in the rotation. I made up a final margin that seemed big enough to insure some garbage time. Then I collected the data. Fact is, at the time I first did this research I was hoping to show that K played a longer rotation than people thought. But he doesn't.

[Billy Dat]

RJ led the team in assists with 6 against Yale. He is second only to Jones for total season assists. I'd say he can and does pass.

I like the passionate advocacy, I see you RJ Army, I feel you.

[robed deity]

NSDukeFan is probably right, it's all in the definition of "in the rotation."

For example, in the last five games of the NCAA tournament, Andre Dawkins reached 10 minutes in only one game. In three of the five games, he played 5 or fewer minutes. That doesn't seem like in the rotation to me, but maybe it does to you. I can certainly see Alex getting that kind of usage in big games.

He may have played less than 10 mins in the Baylor game, but that 3 before the half was huuuuge.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

He may have played less than 10 mins in the Baylor game, but that 3 before the half was huuuuge.

We don't beat Baylor without Dawkins in that game...I thought that at the time. I think he hit two bombs to keep Baylor from pulling away in the first half.

[sagegrouse]

I disagree. Guys who get in the game during November/December experimentation time but after that only in garbage time are not "in the rotation" to me.

I didn't "datafit" my criteria. Everyone said K tightened his rotation once ACC play starts. If a guy only played 6 or 8 minutes, people complained that K wasn't playing him, so I figured 10 minutes was a reasonable measure for who is in the rotation. I made up a final margin that seemed big enough to insure some garbage time. Then I collected the data. Fact is, at the time I first did this research I was hoping to show that K played a longer rotation than people thought. But he doesn't.

There is a philosophical argument in the discussion of rotation players. It appears you are trying to divine what is meant by "in the rotation." The problem is it embodies two very different concepts: the skills and abilities of the players and the desire of Coach K to manage a team in a certain way. Then you look for high-pressure games and measure only those. IMHO (where the H disappeared at McNichols Arena in 1990), this is a tangle. (a) The concept of “in the rotation” is not a simple measure because it embodies considerations about ability of the players and the style of coaching. (b) You have not used all the available data, which raises problems of sufficiency, in that it throws away whatever meaning is in two-thirds of the games played. And some of those games dropped depend on the final score, which is a questionable practice.

To me, it seems better to define a “rotation player” as one who gets substantial minutes – enough to be in a position to help the team now and gain enough experience to improve and develop both during the season and for the following season. The measure doesn’t have to read Coach K’s mind to determine some essential valuation. Simplicity is an advantage in statistics.

With this approach, a “rotation player” could be said to be a player who plays 300 minutes or 8-10 minutes per game. I would certainly entertain other levels, as it is impossible to avoid some degree of judgment. All games are considered -- therefore, the total record of the player is credited. Why not look only at reasonably close ACC games? You have to have a good reason to drop data from the analysis, and I don't think that there is one -- although, of course, it is useful to look at subsets of the data. I would be careful about defining the sub-sample based on final score -- confusion of dependent and independent variables, etc.

I recognize the questionable value of “garbage time” – a tip of the hat for the term to long-time Laker announcer Chick Hearn – the final couple of minutes in routs when all the starters are on the bench and the end-of-the-bench players are in the game, but players playing only those minutes won’t get to the 300-minute standard. But I believe you are referring to "garbage time" differently, the longer period when the starters begin to go to the bench. Chick's definition was pretty tight -- confined only to circumstances when teams cleared the bench

This is an interesting discussion.

[DukieInBrasil]

I’m not sure what BandAlum83 was supposedly reminding us of. I was simply saying that I think RJ’s shot selection and usage rate have been questionable throughout much of the season. That’s not exactly going out on a limb. He’s a talented player, but I think for Duke to reach its potential as a team and for RJ to reach his potential as both a college and NBA player, he needs to play within the flow of the offense. Team-oriented basketball is this team’s salvation. Food for thought:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theringer.com/platform/amp/college-basketball/2018/11/29/18116769/rj-barrett-duke-zion-williamson

that article only looked at Duke thru the 1st 7 games, and i think it drew a reasonable conclusion about RJ's play. In the 3 games since then, he's been pretty successful at doing the things the article suggested he do to improve his own game, but also to improve the team. Unfortunately, 2 of those 3 games were against pretty bad teams, and Yale is an experienced, disciplined team but not physically stout enough to really punish RJ for mental lapses. RJ has been an exceptional player so far, and if he can incorporate the passing-while-driving-into-2-or-3 players then Duke will be that much tougher to beat.


R.J. is the best player in the country already. And he's going to keep getting better.

RJ is very very good. His stats don't support your claim that he's the best player already. He scores a lot, but his efficiency in that regard is mediocre, particularly his FT% which is quite poor for someone whose game gets him a lot of fouls. He has an impressive assist total, but also turns it over a fair amount, but still a solid 1.7:1 ratio, bolstered largely by the last 3 games in which it's been 17:5. His rebounding is really quite good, regardless of position, but especially for a "wing" player. I like RJ's game, and i would like it even more if he were able to more consistently find his teammates when his own scoring options are less than optimal.

[Kedsy]

There is a philosophical argument in the discussion of rotation players. It appears you are trying to divine what is meant by "in the rotation." The problem is it embodies two very different concepts: the skills and abilities of the players and the desire of Coach K to manage a team in a certain way. Then you look for high-pressure games and measure only those. IMHO (where the H disappeared at McNichols Arena in 1990), this is a tangle. (a) The concept of “in the rotation” is not a simple measure because it embodies considerations about ability of the players and the style of coaching. (b) You have not used all the available data, which raises problems of sufficiency, in that it throws away whatever meaning is in two-thirds of the games played. And some of those games dropped depend on the final score, which is a questionable practice.

To me, it seems better to define a “rotation player” as one who gets substantial minutes – enough to be in a position to help the team now and gain enough experience to improve and develop both during the season and for the following season. The measure doesn’t have to read Coach K’s mind to determine some essential valuation. Simplicity is an advantage in statistics.

With this approach, a “rotation player” could be said to be a player who plays 300 minutes or 8-10 minutes per game. I would certainly entertain other levels, as it is impossible to avoid some degree of judgment. All games are considered -- therefore, the total record of the player is credited. Why not look only at reasonably close ACC games? You have to have a good reason to drop data from the analysis, and I don't think that there is one -- although, of course, it is useful to look at subsets of the data. I would be careful about defining the sub-sample based on final score -- confusion of dependent and independent variables, etc.

I recognize the questionable value of “garbage time” – a tip of the hat for the term to long-time Laker announcer Chick Hearn – the final couple of minutes in routs when all the starters are on the bench and the end-of-the-bench players are in the game, but players playing only those minutes won’t get to the 300-minute standard. But I believe you are referring to "garbage time" differently, the longer period when the starters begin to go to the bench. Chick's definition was pretty tight -- confined only to circumstances when teams cleared the bench

This is an interesting discussion.

Well, when people talk about this, they seem to be talking about regular playing time, not time padded by blowouts. At least that's how it seems to me. Coach K clearly has a different substitution pattern in close games than in blowouts (and even in the first half of games he expects to be blowouts, before switching to the "close game" pattern in the second half if the blowout doesn't materialize). So to me, counting all minutes equally doesn't make sense in this context.

K also appears to be more liberal in substituting in November/December games than in games once the ACC season starts in January, but I'd be happy to extend the definition to all close games (eliminating the January 1 cutoff). I'd be thrilled to have a readily available indicator of "blowout" other than the final score, if you can think of one.

Consider the legend of Elliot Williams: the legend has it that Elliot hardly played all season in 2008-09 until he was suddenly thrust into the starting lineup for the season's last 12 games. Here are the actual facts:

Before January 1, Duke played 12 games. Eight of those games were decided by 20 or more points, and in those games Elliot Williams averaged 17.6 mpg. Four of those games were decided by fewer than 20 points, and in those games Elliot averaged 6.8 mpg. After January 1 and before he went into the starting lineup, Duke played 13 games: four games decided by 20 or more points in which Elliot averaged 11 mpg; and nine games decided by fewer than 20 points, in which Elliot averaged 2.4 mpg.

Duke played 25 games that season before Elliot found himself in the starting lineup. In those games he averaged 9.4 mpg and was on pace to exceed 300 minutes for the season. So is the legend completely wrong? Was he really in the rotation the entire season? Personally, I don't think so.

Another example is Taylor King in 2007-08. Prior to January 1, Duke played 11 games: seven decided by 20 or more points, in which Taylor averaged 18.9 mpg; and four games decided by fewer than 20 points, in which Taylor averaged 6.3 mpg. After January 1, Duke played 23 games: three decided by 20 or more points, in which Taylor averaged 13.3 mpg; and 23 games decided by fewer than 20 points, in which Taylor averaged 6.7 mpg (with ten games of 4 or fewer minutes). His season minutes total was 330. Was he in the rotation? If so, why'd he transfer?

Even in a philosophical argument, you have to identify what you're arguing about. Based on the above, if "in the rotation" means consistent playing time then your 300 minute cutoff doesn't appear to work even if you drop your requirement of "in" to 8 mpg. In fact, under this standard any minute cutoff is potentially suspect. To me, "rotation" means who plays when the game's outcome is in doubt. If we had the information (and the time and energy) to evaluate exactly when K called off the dogs in each blowout game, we'd probably have a better picture (though even then it wouldn't be completely accurate -- as I said earlier, if K expects to win the game big he substitutes differently after about the first 4 minutes of the game). So under those circumstances, which would more accurately capture who plays when the game's outcome is in doubt? All minutes in all games? Or only minutes in games that don't appear to be blowouts? To me, the answer is obvious.

[bluesin]

Whenever I read a discussion about bench depth and rotational players I always think about something Coach K said in one of his meetings with the students while I was in school. I don't know if he still does this but he used to meet with tenters and just have a conversation with them about the team and what he liked about what the Crazies were doing and what we could do to help the team. Nothing ground breaking really just meeting the students to recognize they were camping out basically. But, during one of those meetings he had a question about how he handles minutes and depth to deal with tiredness and experience - and he said something I've always remembered even after most of the rest of it has faded.

To paraphrase, he said that depth wasn't how many people he could play in a game, or making sure people had x number of minutes per game to get experience. He said that real depth is knowing that when you need a kid to come in and play he can do what the team needs and be present in that moment as a real contributor. He said your best chance of winning was with your best players on the floor as long as you can manage it, but sometimes you need someone else to come in (either because of fouls or because you needed something different or someone needs a quick breather) and real meaningful depth was being able to have someone who wasn't in the game often be able to come in and do their job. So he wasn't going to worry about game depth in minutes because his goal in practice was to make sure everyone knew what to do so they could give team depth when it mattered. I don't know how much his mind has changed in over a 15ish years (I assume it has some at least) but I always think back to that question and answer when I worry or read about minutes or rotation. He stressed that practice was where you built team depth, and minutes in games didn't mean much if the players were just taking up space. I suspect he would have a different definition of who is in the rotation than any we'd try to come up with based on minutes played per game, and maybe that's where some of the fan stress comes from. He also said kids don't really get tired playing in games over a season, they get tired from school and practice and travel and personal lives, but that's probably a whole different thread.

[UrinalCake]

Cool breakdown of Zion in various pick and roll scenarios. I agree with the author that we should use the pnr more often. It kind of boggles my mind that we don’t, give how many guys we have that can both drive/finish and shoot.

https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/zion-williamson-both-sides/

[BandAlum83]

Cool breakdown of Zion in various pick and roll scenarios. I agree with the author that we should use the pnr more often. It kind of boggles my mind that we don’t, give how many guys we have that can both drive/finish and shoot.

https://accsports.com/acc-analytics/zion-williamson-both-sides/

Excellent find, UC! Thanks for sharing. Can I get CE credits?

[sagegrouse]

Well, when people talk about this, they seem to be talking about regular playing time, not time padded by blowouts. At least that's how it seems to me. Coach K clearly has a different substitution pattern in close games than in blowouts (and even in the first half of games he expects to be blowouts, before switching to the "close game" pattern in the second half if the blowout doesn't materialize). So to me, counting all minutes equally doesn't make sense in this context.

K also appears to be more liberal in substituting in November/December games than in games once the ACC season starts in January, but I'd be happy to extend the definition to all close games (eliminating the January 1 cutoff). I'd be thrilled to have a readily available indicator of "blowout" other than the final score, if you can think of one.

Consider the legend of Elliot Williams: the legend has it that Elliot hardly played all season in 2008-09 until he was suddenly thrust into the starting lineup for the season's last 12 games. Here are the actual facts:

Before January 1, Duke played 12 games. Eight of those games were decided by 20 or more points, and in those games Elliot Williams averaged 17.6 mpg. Four of those games were decided by fewer than 20 points, and in those games Elliot averaged 6.8 mpg. After January 1 and before he went into the starting lineup, Duke played 13 games: four games decided by 20 or more points in which Elliot averaged 11 mpg; and nine games decided by fewer than 20 points, in which Elliot averaged 2.4 mpg.

Duke played 25 games that season before Elliot found himself in the starting lineup. In those games he averaged 9.4 mpg and was on pace to exceed 300 minutes for the season. So is the legend completely wrong? Was he really in the rotation the entire season? Personally, I don't think so.

Another example is Taylor King in 2007-08. Prior to January 1, Duke played 11 games: seven decided by 20 or more points, in which Taylor averaged 18.9 mpg; and four games decided by fewer than 20 points, in which Taylor averaged 6.3 mpg. After January 1, Duke played 23 games: three decided by 20 or more points, in which Taylor averaged 13.3 mpg; and 23 games decided by fewer than 20 points, in which Taylor averaged 6.7 mpg (with ten games of 4 or fewer minutes). His season minutes total was 330. Was he in the rotation? If so, why'd he transfer?

Even in a philosophical argument, you have to identify what you're arguing about. Based on the above, if "in the rotation" means consistent playing time then your 300 minute cutoff doesn't appear to work even if you drop your requirement of "in" to 8 mpg. In fact, under this standard any minute cutoff is potentially suspect. To me, "rotation" means who plays when the game's outcome is in doubt. If we had the information (and the time and energy) to evaluate exactly when K called off the dogs in each blowout game, we'd probably have a better picture (though even then it wouldn't be completely accurate -- as I said earlier, if K expects to win the game big he substitutes differently after about the first 4 minutes of the game). So under those circumstances, which would more accurately capture who plays when the game's outcome is in doubt? All minutes in all games? Or only minutes in games that don't appear to be blowouts? To me, the answer is obvious.

I am back off the road and have a few minutes to post on our favorite subject of discussion since the debate w/ Oly Fan about Woodrow Wilson and the declamation that the NCAA tournament selection committee wqas on "a fool's errand" in picking and seeding tournament teams.

You begin with what is the point of contention:


Well, when people talk about this ('in the rotation"], they seem to be talking about regular playing time, not time padded by blowouts. At least that's how it seems to me. Coach K clearly has a different substitution pattern in close games than in blowouts (and even in the first half of games he expects to be blowouts, before switching to the "close game" pattern in the second half if the blowout doesn't materialize). So to me, counting all minutes equally doesn't make sense in this context.
I disagree with your definition and usage of "in the rotation." I would postulate that it is a basic, although not precisely defined term, that refers to "a player who plays regularly" or "earns substantial playing time," or variations thereof. I have tended to look at definitions, as I look at the progress of players over their careers, that use either 300 minutes of playing time or 9-10 minutes per game as the floor for players getting meaningful experience and having substantial opportunities to contribute to the team.

Your usage seems to require players play regular minutes in games decided by 20 or fewer points in the period after January 1. There is skepticism about early season games and "garbage time" in games decided by more than 20 points. Therefore, you give full credit to January thru ("sigh") April games and zero credit to the other games. We played 17 games last season that met your definition and 20 that did not.

OK, I like social science constructs also, but I have problems with this instance and, truthfully, the fact that you are imposing this definition on the rest of us:

1. Simple definitions are better, in general, and your definition of "in the rotation" is a very complex construct. Quite frankly (I mean this kindly), it is a conclusion passing as a definition.

2. Use all the data available. All games and all minutes should count. That's the social science statistician in me speaking.

3. "Garbage time" doesn't mean what you say. It was coined by Chick Hearn, the Lakers announcer, to refer to the last couple of minutes of blowouts when the bench is emptied. At Duke, virtually all playing time is very serious playing time. I thought that there was a high level of play against Princeton last night when Jack, AOC, Justin, Jordan and Vrank were in the game. In fact, one announcer said that this group, especially if you add non-starter Marques, would be competitive in the ACC and bring a lot of experience. I thought "garbage time" occurred, if at all, when Brendan and Buckmire entered the game. Anyway, conference games won by 22 points don't have much or any "garbage time" as properly used.

4. K likes to shorten his rotation in the most meaningful games. That doesn't mean that four minutes by a substitute shows his lack of confidence; it's that Duke really focuses on player combinations that are very experienced working together. Anyway, using K's practice to saw off the relevance of a player who sees only a few minutes of action in some games is just not right. Moreover, it combines supply factors (player skills and abilities) with demand factors (K's game management practice).

Anyway, I am just beginning and have run out of time. More later.

[Kedsy]

I disagree with your definition and usage of "in the rotation." I would postulate that it is a basic, although not precisely defined term, that refers to "a player who plays regularly" or "earns substantial playing time," or variations thereof.

You're certainly free to disagree. My view is under the vague definitions you espouse, there's little difference between "on the team" and "in the rotation." Incidentally, if these are your definitions, why stop at 300 minutes? What about a player who played in 88% of Duke's games and averaged 6.5 mpg in the games he played, like Ryan Kelly in 2010? His performance seems to have met your criteria, though he only played 227 minutes that season.

My problem is that players like Kelly in 2010 and Taylor King in 2008 (330 minutes) weren't in the rotation by any definition that's worth discussing. Rather, they were on the team and played in blowouts.


1. Simple definitions are better, in general, and your definition of "in the rotation" is a very complex construct. Quite frankly (I mean this kindly), it is a conclusion passing as a definition.

As I told you in my earlier post, when I first gathered the data I had hoped it would support a different conclusion than the one I found. So I disagree with your characterization of my definition.


All games and all minutes should count.

Again I disagree. I think it's very clear that all minutes are not created equal. If all of a guy's minutes come when the game outcome is not in doubt (and by obvious corollary, none of that guy's minutes come when the game is competitive) then how can you say he's in the rotation? Put another way, if that's "in the rotation" then in my opinion there's no point to this debate.


"Garbage time" doesn't mean what you say. It was coined by Chick Hearn, the Lakers announcer, to refer to the last couple of minutes of blowouts when the bench is emptied.

I apologize if I co-opted someone else's term. Pick whatever term you like for "time when the game outcome is no longer in reasonable doubt and the starters mostly get pulled and the end-of-the-bench players get onto the floor."


I thought that there was a high level of play against Princeton last night when Jack, AOC, Justin, Jordan and Vrank were in the game. In fact, one announcer said that this group, especially if you add non-starter Marques, would be competitive in the ACC...

That announcer was being ridiculous. That lineup might be competitive in the Ivy or the MAC or the OVC or the Big South. It would be lucky to win one game in the ACC.


K likes to shorten his rotation in the most meaningful games. That doesn't mean that four minutes by a substitute shows his lack of confidence; it's that Duke really focuses on player combinations that are very experienced working together.

Nobody said anything about K's "lack of confidence." I happen to agree with you that when K talks about "depth," he's talking about having players who when called upon can come into a game and contribute (whether they've played much before that or not). An example being when freshman Amile Jefferson was called upon after Ryan Kelly got hurt in 2013. The fact that he played like a legitimate ACC player showed Duke's depth. But before Ryan Kelly's injury, Amile was not in the rotation. Same with Grayson Allen after and before Rasheed Sulaimon got kicked off the team.

Perhaps that is the root of our disagreement? Depth vs. Rotation? To me, what you're talking about is depth; what I'm talking about is rotation. Though I suppose you'll just say my definition is passing as a conclusion again?


Anyway, using K's practice to saw off the relevance of a player who sees only a few minutes of action in some games is just not right. Moreover, it combines supply factors (player skills and abilities) with demand factors (K's game management practice).

Again, "supply factors" imply depth. "Demand factors" imply rotation.

I'm not sure what you mean by "just not right." K's practice is what it is. He uses a short rotation. I don't think anybody is "saw[ing] off the relevance" of any Duke player (well, I'm certainly not) by saying they're not in the rotation. You seem to think I'm disparaging the end-of-bench players and thus feel the need to defend them. But I'm not. I have simply observed that Coach K only plays a limited number of players when a game is on the line, and I've identified those players he does play under those circumstances as being "in the rotation."