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DavidBenAkiva
12-05-2018, 11:48 AM
I wasn't sure which thread this should go in, so I put it here. Perhaps we should track this throughout the season. Mods, please move if you feel otherwise.

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic (I'd link, but it's behind a paywall) updated his NBA Draft Big Board and, like many, moved Zion Williamson ahead of R.J. Barrett to the #1 spot. He had this rather insightful piece to share about our favorite basketball Monstar:


Williamson has put up numbers at a prodigious rate thus far. He’s averaging 20.8 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.3 blocks over just 26 minutes a night. Since 1992, only one high-major player has had a five-by-two season (averaging at least two points/blocks/assists/rebounds/steals)– former Duke standout Shane Battier. Williamson, however, is also dwarfing Battier’s scoring output (19.7 points per 40 versus 31.8 for Williamson), exceeding him on the glass, and tossing up a true-shooting percentage that is five points better during a season in which Battier was a full three years older than Williamson is now.

Battier has long been one of my favorite players to ever suit up the Blue Devils. To think that Zion is doing what Battier brought to the table and even surpassing him is unthinkable. Zion breaks my mind. He is so fun. He is the funnest player to ever suit up for Duke as far as I am concerned.

At any rate, I think this is worth tracking over the course of the season. Will Zion keep his 5x5 going?

niveklaen
12-05-2018, 12:15 PM
I would think that his shooting has to cool off as we play better competition, but his mpg could easily creep up above 30 so his 5X2 could stay intact even as his efficiency and per 40 numbers shrank.

NSDukeFan
12-05-2018, 12:22 PM
I wasn't sure which thread this should go in, so I put it here. Perhaps we should track this throughout the season. Mods, please move if you feel otherwise.

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic (I'd link, but it's behind a paywall) updated his NBA Draft Big Board and, like many, moved Zion Williamson ahead of R.J. Barrett to the #1 spot. He had this rather insightful piece to share about our favorite basketball Monstar:



Battier has long been one of my favorite players to ever suit up the Blue Devils. To think that Zion is doing what Battier brought to the table and even surpassing him is unthinkable. Zion breaks my mind. He is so fun. He is the funnest player to ever suit up for Duke as far as I am concerned.

At any rate, I think this is worth tracking over the course of the season. Will Zion keep his 5x5 going?

I think this is a great post and very interesting, but as a poster who did not look and find a grammatical error, I will pick another nit, that you may agree with. Zion may be passing a senior Battier in numbers, but in terms of leadership and defense, Zion has a long way to go to match what Battier brought to the table.

Ian
12-05-2018, 01:06 PM
One of my favorite Shane Battier stats is that for each of his 4 seasons at Duke, he had more points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks than he did turnovers.
How rare is that? No other Duke player has ever done it even for 1 season.
I haven't researched it enough with players at other school to know if anyone else has ever done it, except I do know Anthony Davis did it in 2012 for UK.

Zion Williamson currently has 14 turnovers against 19 assists, 18 blocks and 16 steals. So he is on pace to accomplish this rare feat.

Travis
12-05-2018, 01:22 PM
Interestingly if you drop blocks (which admittedly might be one the toughest stats to exceed turnovers), Tre Jones has more points, rebounds, assists, and steals than his 8 turnovers. Dropping blocks, while cheating, also seems reasonable for a point guard. I wonder how many point guards have had more steals than turnovers in a season. Tre’s eight turnovers really is remarkable for a point guard who handles the ball so frequently. And I at least have not felt that his low turnovers are a result of being overly conservative; as others have noted in other threads he often makes highlight worthy passes.

DavidBenAkiva
12-05-2018, 01:28 PM
I think this is a great post and very interesting, but as a poster who did not look and find a grammatical error, I will pick another nit, that you may agree with. Zion may be passing a senior Battier in numbers, but in terms of leadership and defense, Zion has a long way to go to match what Battier brought to the table.

I did post that Zion is accomplishing a 5 x 5, which isn't true. He's got a 5 x 2 (or 2 x 5 if that's how you prefer).

Of course, the stats never pick up leadership. Battier will forever be the Captain of the All-Intangible Team. He was the consummate Glue Guy, so much so that his nickname might have been Mr. Epoxy.

camion
12-05-2018, 01:45 PM
I did post that Zion is accomplishing a 5 x 5, which isn't true. He's got a 5 x 2 (or 2 x 5 if that's how you prefer).

Of course, the stats never pick up leadership. Battier will forever be the Captain of the All-Intangible Team. He was the consummate Glue Guy, so much so that his nickname might have been Mr. Epoxy.

I concur. Zion is amazing, but I don't think anyone at Duke ever made their team(s) better better* than Shane.




*Don't hate me for the "better better" thing.

devildeac
12-05-2018, 02:00 PM
I concur. Zion is amazing, but I don't think anyone at Duke ever made their team(s) better better* than Shane.




*Don't hate me for the "better better" thing.

As long as you don't confuse us with the I/me dilemma :rolleyes:;).

JasonEvans
12-05-2018, 02:54 PM
I wonder how many point guards have had more steals than turnovers in a season.

I have not checked to see how many of them are PGs, but ESPN's Steals and Turnovers page (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/player/_/stat/steals/sort/avgSteals) has a steals-to-turnovers ratio that shows many dozens of players have more steals than turnovers. While it is an impressive feat, it does not seem super difficult to achieve.

-Jason "obviously, we need to see how the rest of the season plays out, to see how enhanced competition may impact Tre's turnovers and steals" Evans

CDu
12-05-2018, 03:01 PM
I have not checked to see how many of them are PGs, but ESPN's Steals and Turnovers page (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/statistics/player/_/stat/steals/sort/avgSteals) has a steals-to-turnovers ratio that shows many dozens of players have more steals than turnovers. While it is an impressive feat, it does not seem super difficult to achieve.

It's an easier feat for non-PGs (especially wings), because they don't turn the ball over much and - by virtue of playing more off-ball - have opportunities to ballhawk for steals.

For a PG, I think it's still a pretty impressive feat.

TruBlu
12-05-2018, 03:21 PM
... Dropping blocks, while cheating, also seems reasonable for a point guard.

Wait! Why did you suddenly have to insert unc into this conversation?!? (smiley face)

HereBeforeCoachK
12-05-2018, 03:36 PM
I concur. Zion is amazing, but I don't think anyone at Duke ever made their team(s) better better* than Shane..

Shane was awesome, and that 2001 Natty Team was a critical one for Coach K to win....rallied from the down years in the 90s, showed he could win the Big One without Laettner/Hurley/Hill, and put him in rarified air with 3 titles. So for those reasons, not to mention his key backhanded tip in against Zona, I'll always be a big Shane fan.

That said, we weren't even talking like this vis a vis Shane 6 games into his Duke career. One thing Zion brings is an overwhelming presence, and charisma, to the court. There's a stat that will be impossible to keep, but one I am convinced is happening - that is the open opportunities because everyone's watching out for Zion out of the corner of their eyes....and nobody wants to be the poster child on Zion's next SportsCenter highlight. Just being on the court, he will create openings even when he doesn't touch the ball. He is a complete one-off outlier in numerous ways.

So is he a statistical aberration? So far, yes. But he's also a physical force of nature aberration as well.

CDu
12-05-2018, 03:45 PM
Shane was awesome, and that 2001 Natty Team was a critical one for Coach K to win...rallied from the down years in the 90s, showed he could win the Big One without Laettner/Hurley/Hill, and put him in rarified air with 3 titles. So for those reasons, not to mention his key backhanded tip in against Zona, I'll always be a big Shane fan.

That said, we weren't even talking like this vis a vis Shane 6 games into his Duke career. One thing Zion brings is an overwhelming presence, and charisma, to the court. There's a stat that will be impossible to keep, but one I am convinced is happening - that is the open opportunities because everyone's watching out for Zion out of the corner of their eyes...and nobody wants to be the poster child on Zion's next SportsCenter highlight. Just being on the court, he will create openings even when he doesn't touch the ball. He is a complete one-off outlier in numerous ways.

So is he a statistical aberration? So far, yes. But he's also a physical force of nature aberration as well.

Yeah, a junior and senior version of Williamson (assuming he stays healthy, and of course there is a 0% chance we'll even see sophomore year Williamson) might break college basketball. Battier, for all his greatness, was a pretty limited offensive player. Even as an upperclassman, he was more a catch-and-shoot type than a shot creator. Conversely, Williamson is a way better offensive player now than Battier ever was, but not nearly as effective defensively. Not even compared to freshman year Battier.

elvis14
12-05-2018, 04:03 PM
Going to tonight's game with a friend. My first of the season. We we talking a few minutes ago about how both of us are really looking forward to watching Zion play tonight. Kid's special.

yancem
12-05-2018, 04:57 PM
Shane was awesome, and that 2001 Natty Team was a critical one for Coach K to win...rallied from the down years in the 90s, showed he could win the Big One without Laettner/Hurley/Hill, and put him in rarified air with 3 titles. So for those reasons, not to mention his key backhanded tip in against Zona, I'll always be a big Shane fan.

That said, we weren't even talking like this vis a vis Shane 6 games into his Duke career. One thing Zion brings is an overwhelming presence, and charisma, to the court. There's a stat that will be impossible to keep, but one I am convinced is happening - that is the open opportunities because everyone's watching out for Zion out of the corner of their eyes...and nobody wants to be the poster child on Zion's next SportsCenter highlight. Just being on the court, he will create openings even when he doesn't touch the ball. He is a complete one-off outlier in numerous ways.

So is he a statistical aberration? So far, yes. But he's also a physical force of nature aberration as well.

The scary thing is that I think tha Barrett creates a similar issue for opposing defenses. So Duke has two of them!!!

brlftz
12-05-2018, 05:22 PM
...There's a stat that will be impossible to keep, but one I am convinced is happening - that is the open opportunities because everyone's watching out for Zion out of the corner of their eyes...and nobody wants to be the poster child on Zion's next SportsCenter highlight. Just being on the court, he will create openings even when he doesn't touch the ball. He is a complete one-off outlier in numerous ways.

one thing I've been getting a good laugh at is how often someone on our team will get a steal and head down the court with Zion on the wing, and the defender will hedge towards Zion even if it means giving the ball handler an open lane to the hoop. They'd rather give a wide open layup or dunk than concede the oop to Zion.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-05-2018, 05:35 PM
one thing I've been getting a good laugh at is how often someone on our team will get a steal and head down the court with Zion on the wing, and the defender will hedge towards Zion even if it means giving the ball handler an open lane to the hoop. They'd rather give a wide open layup or dunk than concede the oop to Zion.

Yep, and I think RJ is catching on to that. It's happened several times already......

HereBeforeCoachK
12-05-2018, 05:37 PM
The scary thing is that I think tha Barrett creates a similar issue for opposing defenses. So Duke has two of them!!!

With due respect, Barrett is a great player, but he does not dominate peoples' attention like Zion does. No where close.

JasonEvans
12-06-2018, 11:28 AM
As the season moves along, I am sure we will see more and more stories about Zion, he's just so remarkable and charismatic. So, let's make this the "Zion is a freak, let me tell you a story about him..." collector thread.

Toward that end, I present this story in the WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-wants-to-take-a-charge-from-zion-williamson-1543872166)today. It is simply titled:
The Few. The Proud. The Players Who Have Been Run Over by Zion Williamson.


Duke freshman Zion Williamson is a basketball phenomenon. His body defies explanation: He is 6-foot-7 and 285 pounds, and he moves faster than anyone his size and jumps higher than anyone of any size. His dunks are viral sensations. His complete game makes NBA scouts drool in his presence. He’s already such a force that it feels strange to call him anything but his first name.

Now imagine being perfectly still and letting Zion Williamson bulldoze you.

Enjoy!

CDu
12-06-2018, 12:03 PM
With due respect, Barrett is a great player, but he does not dominate peoples' attention like Zion does. No where close.

It's interesting. Last year, we had arguably the most dominant offensive player in Duke history in Marvin Bagley. And this year, we might have an even more dominant player... in Zion Williamson.

Bagley was just such a freak talent in terms of his deceptive length (he isn't terribly long-armed, but somehow plays long), second-jump ability, and "functional athleticism" (i.e., he's really athletic in ways that translate to basketball, not just a pure run/jump athlete that can't translate it to basketball) for a 6'11" guy.

Williamson is just a whole other animal: unprecedented combination of size, strength, quickness, and leaping ability. But combine that with some serious basketball skills: he might be the second best ballhandler on the team behind Tre Jones, as well as a pretty good passer, with soft hands and finishing touch around the basket as well. And a similar level of functional athleticism as Bagley. Just unreal watching him play. And unreal to have two freakish players in back-to-back years like this.

Jeffrey
12-06-2018, 12:15 PM
Battier, for all his greatness, was a pretty limited offensive player. Even as an upperclassman, he was more a catch-and-shoot type than a shot creator. Conversely, Williamson is a way better offensive player now than Battier ever was, but not nearly as effective defensively. Not even compared to freshman year Battier.

Shane almost always seems to be the DBR benchmark. IMO, Grant was a much better all-around player and serves as a better benchmark. For example, IMO, comparing RJ with Grant seems more appropriate than Shane.

Jeffrey
12-06-2018, 12:21 PM
It's interesting. Last year, we had arguably the most dominant offensive player in Duke history in Marvin Bagley. And this year, we might have an even more dominant player... in Zion Williamson.

IMO, a much better comparison! DBR frequently criticized Bagley's D, with many here claiming it was bad. IMO, Bagley could play D and did in the final 5 minutes of a close game. However, Zion is also better on D.

fuse
12-06-2018, 03:38 PM
Hadn’t seen this on DBR yet:

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/12/06/zion-williamson-charge-impact-getting-hit-car-duke?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=si-ncaabb&utm_source=twitter.com&xid=socialflow_twitter_si

HereBeforeCoachK
12-06-2018, 04:50 PM
Hadn’t seen this on DBR yet:

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2018/12/06/zion-williamson-charge-impact-getting-hit-car-duke?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=si-ncaabb&utm_source=twitter.com&xid=socialflow_twitter_si

Thanks for posting...HERES the money quote about drawing a charge from Zion:

"...... the same amount as the average force "during a similar, head-on collision with a Jeep traveling 10 miles per hour," according to The Wall Street Journal."

AOC, call your office......

MChambers
12-06-2018, 05:00 PM
And unreal to have two freakish players in back-to-back years like this.

I think I could get used to it.

JayZee
12-06-2018, 05:27 PM
Shane almost always seems to be the DBR benchmark. IMO, Grant was a much better all-around player and serves as a better benchmark. For example, IMO, comparing RJ with Grant seems more appropriate than Shane.

Grant was overshadowed (deservedly so) by Laettner and Hurley his first 2 years.

He was one Tony Lang manicure away from being THE cbb benchmark over Laettner I think.

But add Shane onto this years' team (stand still shooting and defensive savant) and they go undefeated, get a wild card entry into the NBA playoffs and lose to the Warriors in game 7 only after losing momentum when the game had to be stopped to replace the backboard for the second time on a Zion windmill dunk.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-06-2018, 05:46 PM
He was one Tony Lang manicure away from being THE cbb benchmark over Laettner I think.
.

Too soon....still waaaay too soon......

Natty:

91 Duke
92 Duke
93 Fluke
94 Duke

woulda coulda shoulda been the all time tee shirt.......

Steven43
12-06-2018, 05:56 PM
I concur. Zion is amazing, but I don't think anyone at Duke ever made their team(s) better better* than Shane.
As much as I loved Shane as a Blue Devil, I don’t think he was as good as Christian Laettner. Perhaps I’m not understanding the intent of your message and you were strictly talking about Duke’s best team player rather than best player overall.

Shane was a GREAT player and seems like a genuinely good guy. I met him briefly at his Duke Hall of Fame induction dinner/ceremony and he could not have been nicer. I’m still amazed that Shane and Grant Hill (not to mention legendary golf coach Dan Brooks) were inducted on the same night. An embarrassment of Duke riches.

loran16
12-06-2018, 08:03 PM
Returning sort of to the thread title, Zion is indeed a bit of a statistical anomaly. Ken Pomeroy's site, if you are a subscriber, allows for you to look at statistical comps for players across all the other players in Pomeroy's database (which sadly only goes back to 2002, so Shane isn't in it). The comparisons are made based upon a 1000 point scale, the higher the score, the closer the comparison (what measures are compared can be seen here: https://kenpom.com/blog/comps-are-back/), with comps over 900 being generally considered reasonable comps (usually really really good comps are around 930, although they're not as common as one would like).

So for RJ Barrett, he's got one decent comp: 08 Derrick Rose at 909 - I imagine that comp would be really good if it weren't for the gap in size between the two players.
Cam doesn't have any great comps yet, he's at 894 for his best comp, but as the season goes on I expect that to change.

Zion's closest comp is an 865, which is a pretty miserable comp. It's actually Jahlil Okafor, and Zion's second best comp, again at a really bad 861, is Wendell Carter. Dude's statistically not a good match for much of anything in the Pomeroy database so far.

Steven43
12-06-2018, 09:03 PM
Going to tonight's game with a friend. My first of the season. We we talking a few minutes ago about how both of us are really looking forward to watching Zion play tonight. Kid's special.
I’ve attended Duke’s home games this year and I’d like to keep it going for the whole season. Zion Williamson is VERY special and we only have him for one season. He will be talked about by college basketball fans forever. Likewise, I think this team has a chance to be an all-timer. Go to every game you can, folks. Wait, did I just stupidly create more competition for myself in getting tickets?
TV is better, guys — high def, closeups, great replays, comfort of your couch, snacks that are actually good (sorry Cameron), no parking hassles, change channel during timeouts and halftime, etc. Stay home Duke fans!

dyedwab
12-06-2018, 09:28 PM
Returning sort of to the thread title, Zion is indeed a bit of a statistical anomaly. Ken Pomeroy's site, if you are a subscriber, allows for you to look at statistical comps for players across all the other players in Pomeroy's database (which sadly only goes back to 2002, so Shane isn't in it). The comparisons are made based upon a 1000 point scale, the higher the score, the closer the comparison (what measures are compared can be seen here: https://kenpom.com/blog/comps-are-back/), with comps over 900 being generally considered reasonable comps (usually really really good comps are around 930, although they're not as common as one would like).

So for RJ Barrett, he's got one decent comp: 08 Derrick Rose at 909 - I imagine that comp would be really good if it weren't for the gap in size between the two players.
Cam doesn't have any great comps yet, he's at 894 for his best comp, but as the season goes on I expect that to change.

Zion's closest comp is an 865, which is a pretty miserable comp. It's actually Jahlil Okafor, and Zion's second best comp, again at a really bad 861, is Wendell Carter. Dude's statistically not a good match for much of anything in the Pomeroy database so far.

I LOVE player similarity scores - and one of the insights from them (learned from reading Bill James do this is baseball 30 years ago) is that the very, very best players won't have terribly closely comparable players. That makes logical sense - we are dealing with players on the right-edge of the bell curve.

But this similarity scoring helps illustrate the original point - ain't a lot of people who have ever played who are like Zion.

loran16
12-06-2018, 09:49 PM
I LOVE player similarity scores - and one of the insights from them (learned from reading Bill James do this is baseball 30 years ago) is that the very, very best players won't have terribly closely comparable players. That makes logical sense - we are dealing with players on the right-edge of the bell curve.

But this similarity scoring helps illustrate the original point - ain't a lot of people who have ever played who are like Zion.

Just to contrast this, this isn't really true over a full year. For example last year's starting lineups had the following closest comparisons:

Bagley: Jahlil Okafor (923)
Allen: Ryan Arcidiacono (Sr. Year) (944)
Duval: De'Aaron Fox (926)
Carter: Derrick Favors (918)
Trent: Jon Scheyer (Freshman Yr) (927)

Say whether you agree with those comps or not, but all of those starters had pretty close statistical comparisons. And over a full year, the comparisons should get tighter for every player, Zion included - but the fact that Zion is so unique so far is pretty fascinating.

BLPOG
12-06-2018, 10:46 PM
As much as I loved Shane as a Blue Devil, I don’t think he was as good as Christian Laettner. Perhaps I’m not understanding the intent of your message and you were strictly talking about Duke’s best team player rather than best player overall.

Shane was a GREAT player and seems like a genuinely good guy. I met him briefly at his Duke Hall of Fame induction dinner/ceremony and he could not have been nicer. I’m still amazed that Shane and Grant Hill (not to mention legendary golf coach Dan Brooks) were inducted on the same night. An embarrassment of Duke riches.

One of the things that I loved about Shane was that he somehow managed to incorporate the great creative qualities of the Crazies of the era into his persona and actions as a basketball player. Remember for a moment that digging up dirt on opposing players, or anyone else, was a lot harder back then (true, people are more careful now, but only because of how easily accessible personal information is these days). As an example (and unfortunately I don't recall the exact circumstances anymore), during an interview with some ESPN/ABC/CBS/NBC/whatever guy, he suddenly brought up that the interviewer used to be a member of his school's cheerleader squad - totally catching the interviewer off-guard and basically turning the tables as far as the interview went.

It was (in addition to his style of play) because of that sort of thing that Shane gained a reputation as a "smart" guy - it wasn't his academics at Duke or anything, it was just that the guy is clever and did his homework.

dyedwab
12-07-2018, 09:59 AM
Just to contrast this, this isn't really true over a full year. For example last year's starting lineups had the following closest comparisons:

Bagley: Jahlil Okafor (923)
Allen: Ryan Arcidiacono (Sr. Year) (944)
Duval: De'Aaron Fox (926)
Carter: Derrick Favors (918)
Trent: Jon Scheyer (Freshman Yr) (927)

Say whether you agree with those comps or not, but all of those starters had pretty close statistical comparisons. And over a full year, the comparisons should get tighter for every player, Zion included - but the fact that Zion is so unique so far is pretty fascinating.

Not a subscriber so I can't look - but the way I don't actually see these comps as "close" - at least in baseball, that's true. You see comp numbers in the 980 range as you move down into the "replacement level" range

JayZee
12-07-2018, 11:17 AM
Returning sort of to the thread title, Zion is indeed a bit of a statistical anomaly. Ken Pomeroy's site, if you are a subscriber, allows for you to look at statistical comps for players across all the other players in Pomeroy's database (which sadly only goes back to 2002, so Shane isn't in it). The comparisons are made based upon a 1000 point scale, the higher the score, the closer the comparison (what measures are compared can be seen here: https://kenpom.com/blog/comps-are-back/), with comps over 900 being generally considered reasonable comps (usually really really good comps are around 930, although they're not as common as one would like).

So for RJ Barrett, he's got one decent comp: 08 Derrick Rose at 909 - I imagine that comp would be really good if it weren't for the gap in size between the two players.
Cam doesn't have any great comps yet, he's at 894 for his best comp, but as the season goes on I expect that to change.

Zion's closest comp is an 865, which is a pretty miserable comp. It's actually Jahlil Okafor, and Zion's second best comp, again at a really bad 861, is Wendell Carter. Dude's statistically not a good match for much of anything in the Pomeroy database so far.

Thanks for pointing out this perspective. Really odd that Zion's two best comps are Duke players, even if they aren't that close.

DavidBenAkiva
12-12-2018, 04:17 PM
The stat-heads at 538 take a look at Zion and find a player on an historic pace that is doing things rarely seen in the sport: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/zion-williamson-is-the-best-college-basketball-player-in-at-least-a-decade

Dr. Rosenrosen
12-12-2018, 04:19 PM
The stat-heads at 538 take a look at Zion and find a player on an historic pace that is doing things rarely seen in the sport: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/zion-williamson-is-the-best-college-basketball-player-in-at-least-a-decade
Was just going to post this. Very cool piece. Good read.

“However, Krzyzewski doesn’t need to shoehorn Williamson in anywhere; ostensibly, he has free reign to roam the backside of the defense like a safety and run the floor in search of rims to pulverize.”

fuse
12-12-2018, 04:37 PM
I can’t find it, there was a picture of Zion with some other Duke students who had built a massive snowman.

Acymetric
12-12-2018, 04:48 PM
Returning sort of to the thread title, Zion is indeed a bit of a statistical anomaly. Ken Pomeroy's site, if you are a subscriber, allows for you to look at statistical comps for players across all the other players in Pomeroy's database (which sadly only goes back to 2002, so Shane isn't in it). The comparisons are made based upon a 1000 point scale, the higher the score, the closer the comparison (what measures are compared can be seen here: https://kenpom.com/blog/comps-are-back/), with comps over 900 being generally considered reasonable comps (usually really really good comps are around 930, although they're not as common as one would like).

So for RJ Barrett, he's got one decent comp: 08 Derrick Rose at 909 - I imagine that comp would be really good if it weren't for the gap in size between the two players.
Cam doesn't have any great comps yet, he's at 894 for his best comp, but as the season goes on I expect that to change.

Zion's closest comp is an 865, which is a pretty miserable comp. It's actually Jahlil Okafor, and Zion's second best comp, again at a really bad 861, is Wendell Carter. Dude's statistically not a good match for much of anything in the Pomeroy database so far.

I really wish KenPom went back further. Would be interesting to see the comps with 90s players, or even 80s. 16 years seems like a lot, but when considering the history of basketball greats it is a pretty limited set.

SavDukeGrad
12-12-2018, 06:09 PM
I can’t find it, there was a picture of Zion with some other Duke students who had built a massive snowman.

It’s on the dukembb instagram story. That is one huge snowman sporting no. 1!

fuse
12-12-2018, 06:14 PM
Another good read:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/ncaa-basketball/news/duke-zion-williamson-is-something-basketball-has-never-seen/7y3fu14ai25h17qt9ctx88x6l

bullettoothtony
12-12-2018, 08:43 PM
I wasn't sure which thread this should go in, so I put it here. Perhaps we should track this throughout the season. Mods, please move if you feel otherwise.

Sam Vecenie of The Athletic (I'd link, but it's behind a paywall) updated his NBA Draft Big Board and, like many, moved Zion Williamson ahead of R.J. Barrett to the #1 spot. He had this rather insightful piece to share about our favorite basketball Monstar:



Battier has long been one of my favorite players to ever suit up the Blue Devils. To think that Zion is doing what Battier brought to the table and even surpassing him is unthinkable. Zion breaks my mind. He is so fun. He is the funnest player to ever suit up for Duke as far as I am concerned.

At any rate, I think this is worth tracking over the course of the season. Will Zion keep his 5x5 going?


I don't know how to link it from my phone but there's a similar article by Josh Planos at fivethirtyeight (i saw the link through ESPN). Titled "Zion Williamson is the best college basketball player in at least a decade".

Bluedog
12-12-2018, 08:59 PM
I don't know how to link it from my phone but there's a similar article by Josh Planos at fivethirtyeight (i saw the link through ESPN). Titled "Zion Williamson is the best college basketball player in at least a decade".

Same link popped up through my Google news feed:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/zion-williamson-is-the-best-college-basketball-player-in-at-least-a-decade/amp/

Some definite intense analysis in this one with some fun graphs.

JasonEvans
12-13-2018, 05:32 AM
It’s on the dukembb instagram story. That is one huge snowman sporting no. 1!

Actually, Dukembb instagram was just tagged in the post (https://www.instagram.com/p/BrNYL5in37n/).

Here is the actual image: 8884

devildeac
12-13-2018, 09:56 AM
Actually, Dukembb instagram was just tagged in the post (https://www.instagram.com/p/BrNYL5in37n/).

Here is the actual image: 8884

That big/tall/white/round dude in the middle of that photo with the scarf is huuuuge. I'd bet K's not interested as he likely to be a bit slow. :o

JasonEvans
12-13-2018, 10:55 AM
That big/tall/white/round dude in the middle of that photo with the scarf is huuuuge. I'd bet K's not interested as he likely to be a bit slow. :o

I'd also be worried that under the bright lights of Cameron, his game will totally melt down.

-Jason "I'll show myself out now" Evans

SavDukeGrad
12-13-2018, 11:04 AM
Actually, Dukembb instagram was just tagged in the post (https://www.instagram.com/p/BrNYL5in37n/).

Here is the actual image: 8884

That’s a great picture! But the one on the dukembb instagram story was different, and I think it was even a different snowman - it was wearing no. 1! I’m not very technologically savvy, so unfortunately I don’t know how to link it. But how great to see Zion out having fun with his fellow freshmen!

HereBeforeCoachK
12-13-2018, 01:00 PM
I'd also be worried that under the bright lights of Cameron, his game will totally melt down.

-Jason "I'll show myself out now" Evans

That is, unless he could ice the game first, before he can flake out.

devildeac
12-13-2018, 01:12 PM
I'd also be worried that under the bright lights of Cameron, his game will totally melt down.

-Jason "I'll show myself out now" Evans

Trying to snow us again, eh Jason?

(Don't close that door just yet :o.)

Sluggo
12-13-2018, 11:29 PM
Hopefully this wasn’t already shared: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/zion-williamson-is-the-best-college-basketball-player-in-at-least-a-decade/?ex_cid=538twitter

BandAlum83
12-14-2018, 01:50 AM
Hopefully this wasn’t already shared: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/zion-williamson-is-the-best-college-basketball-player-in-at-least-a-decade/?ex_cid=538twitter

Clickable link:

Zion Williamson Is The Best College Basketball Player In At Least A Decade
(https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/zion-williamson-is-the-best-college-basketball-player-in-at-least-a-decade/?ex_cid=538twitter)

It's a good article that goes through all kinds of stats, as would be expected with 538. In many cases, the stats are really surprising at how dominating they are.

The article also includes some highlights. All in all a good read that closes with this:


At its roots, basketball is a sport largely defined by the exploitation of mismatches. Williamson is a mismatch for virtually every player tasked with defending him, and he’s putting up numbers that haven’t been seen in at least a quarter-century. Williamson garnered a reputation as a high flyer by punishing rims and opponents at the high school level, but his first — and likely only — season at the college level has revealed a more polished game that extends to every area of the court, not just above the rim.

I am also going to reports this post in the The Statistical and Basketball Aberration that is Zion Williamson (https://forums.dukebasketballreport.com/forums/showthread.php?42771-Zion-Is-The-Best), which is probably where it belongs.

fgb
12-14-2018, 04:17 AM
*Don't hate me for the "better better" thing.

that's bettier.

JasonEvans
12-14-2018, 09:01 AM
So, we've already had 3 different people post the link to the 538 story about Zion and at least 3 or 4 others comment saying, "wow, that's a great story..."

I think we've made our point, people ;)

fuse
12-14-2018, 09:48 AM
To Jason’s point, maybe nothing new- Kevin Durant weighs in:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/kevin-durant-on-dukes-zion-williamson-hes-a-once-in-a-generation-athlete/

Jeffrey
12-14-2018, 11:06 AM
Clickable link:

Zion Williamson Is The Best College Basketball Player In At Least A Decade
(https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/zion-williamson-is-the-best-college-basketball-player-in-at-least-a-decade/?ex_cid=538twitter)



Didn't Bilas say RJ is our best player?

CDu
12-14-2018, 11:20 AM
Didn't Bilas say RJ is our best player?

In fairness, he still might eventually be that . Barrett was the consensus best player in high school last year. And he's started to play much more efficiently in the last few games. He's already overtaken the rest of the non-Zion higher-usage players in terms of efficiency. So there's still a glimmer of hope that he will turn out to be the best. Not at all likely to catch Zion, but not impossible.

But what Bilas is really doing is just regurgitating the high school rankings. And was probably somewhat looking at all skills (Barrett does have more skills, just not as dominant as Williamson at what he does well) rather than looking at the big picture of combining those skills.

Barrett is no doubt better than he has shown early in college. But he was probably somewhat overrated coming out of high school given that he's a wing who isn't a good shooter and isn't a great ballhandler. Still, he's a REALLY good player in spite of those flaws. It's just that Williamson is a freak of nature and somehow flew under the radar in high school.

Steven43
12-14-2018, 11:39 AM
Didn't Bilas say RJ is our best player?

Yeah, I think I recall Bilas saying something to that effect during one of Duke’s early games. I would bet he’d have a different opinion at this point. Not to slight RJ in any way, but Zion is doing things that probably have not ever been done by a college freshman. Like, ever. Still, I’m not sure which of the two has a higher ceiling. It might be about equal. They’re both big-time studs.

Troublemaker
12-14-2018, 11:40 AM
In fairness, he still might eventually be that . Barrett was the consensus best player in high school last year. And he's started to play much more efficiently in the last few games. He's already overtaken the rest of the non-Zion higher-usage players in terms of efficiency. So there's still a glimmer of hope that he will turn out to be the best. Not at all likely to catch Zion, but not impossible.

But what Bilas is really doing is just regurgitating the high school rankings. And was probably somewhat looking at all skills (Barrett does have more skills, just not as dominant as Williamson at what he does well) rather than looking at the big picture of combining those skills.

Barrett is no doubt better than he has shown early in college. But he was probably somewhat overrated coming out of high school given that he's a wing who isn't a good shooter and isn't a great ballhandler. Still, he's a REALLY good player in spite of those flaws. It's just that Williamson is a freak of nature and somehow flew under the radar in high school.

I don't think RJ was overrated. He's on track to become what was expected (imo), and other than Zion, I wouldn't take another freshman in the country over him, either at the college level or in the NBA draft.

It's more that Zion has far exceeded the consensus expectations of him, both in terms of college impact and NBA draft.

Defending Bilas here -- I've also heard Jay Williams pick RJ as the team's best player after watching a Duke practice. It's very possible that, due to the low level of competition Zion faced in high school, RJ outplayed him in preseason practices for awhile. But Zion's extraordinary physical gifts allowed him to catch up really, really quickly, and he's now the team's best player and the leading NPOY candidate, imo.

Troublemaker
12-14-2018, 11:46 AM
Yeah, I think I recall Bilas saying something to that effect during one of Duke’s early games. I would bet he’d have a different opinion at this point. Not to slight RJ in any way, but Zion is doing things that probably have not ever been done by a college freshman. Like, ever. Still, I’m not sure which of the two has a higher ceiling. It might be about equal. They’re both big-time studs.

I don't think it's much of a question. Zion has a higher ceiling and will be the #1 draft pick. RJ has Jimmy Butler ceiling, a comparison that some scouts have given him. Zion, on the other hand, could be one of the top 5 players in the NBA if he goes to a franchise with a good coach that knows how to take advantage of his unique gifts.

Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15
12-14-2018, 11:53 AM
So, we've already had 3 different people post the link to the 538 story about Zion and at least 3 or 4 others comment saying, "wow, that's a great story..."

I think we've made our point, people ;)

This graph from the article says everything:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/planos-ZION-01.png?w=5758886

JasonEvans
12-14-2018, 12:02 PM
Zion has a higher ceiling and will be the #1 draft pick. RJ has Jimmy Butler ceiling, a comparison that some scouts have given him. Zion, on the other hand, could be one of the top 5 players in the NBA if he goes to a franchise with a good coach that knows how to take advantage of his unique gifts.

Just so we are clear, Jimmy Butler is certainly among the 10-15 best players in the NBA and is widely seen as a guy around whom you can build a championship contender. So, saying RJ's ceiling is Jimmy Butler is pretty high praise. Any NBA team would absolutely do cartwheels to draft "the next Jimmy Butler."

Zion is starting to be seen as generational. I'm not entirely sure of that (I think he needs more of a jumpshot and a 3 to be there, though he can certainly learn those things), but the chance to get a guy who may someday be the best player in the league is something no one passes up.

Troublemaker
12-14-2018, 12:08 PM
Just so we are clear, Jimmy Butler is certainly among the 10-15 best players in the NBA and is widely seen as a guy around whom you can build a championship contender. So, saying RJ's ceiling is Jimmy Butler is pretty high praise. Any NBA team would absolutely do cartwheels to draft "the next Jimmy Butler."

Exactly, Jason. When a scout (or a fan) makes the Jimmy Butler comparison, that's a wonderful compliment to that NBA prospect.

Steven43
12-14-2018, 12:15 PM
Exactly, Jason. When a scout (or a fan) makes the Jimmy Butler comparison, that's a wonderful compliment to that NBA prospect.

If RJ eventually develops a game similar to Butler’s that would be great. However, I hope he doesn’t also replicate Butler’s negative attitude and personality traits.

CDu
12-14-2018, 01:31 PM
I don't think RJ was overrated. He's on track to become what was expected (imo), and other than Zion, I wouldn't take another freshman in the country over him, either at the college level or in the NBA draft.

I guess it depends on where one rated him coming in. I've heard some folks say he would be ahead of guys like Bagley, for example. I don't think he's going to do that in college. When he drops 30 and 15 against 4 Power-5 schools (and 30 and 20 against anyone) and gets his TS% up near 64%, I'll agree that those folks weren't overrating him.

If the idea was just that he was a really talented kid with a super-high ceiling but some definite limitations at this juncture, I agree. And unquestionably one of the 2-3 best players in his high school class for sure.

To be clear, I don't mean he was wildly overrated. Just a little overrated. Still a terrific player though.


It's more that Zion has far exceeded the consensus expectations of him, both in terms of college impact and NBA draft.

I totally agree with this. Williamson's rise has been amazing. He's doing stuff that is so far off the charts its unreal.


Defending Bilas here -- I've also heard Jay Williams pick RJ as the team's best player after watching a Duke practice. It's very possible that, due to the low level of competition Zion faced in high school, RJ outplayed him in preseason practices for awhile. But Zion's extraordinary physical gifts allowed him to catch up really, really quickly, and he's now the team's best player and the leading NPOY candidate, imo.

I'm guessing it's more of:
(a) Barrett is a tenacious guy at all times and as such tries to dominate even in practice; and
(b) the quality of defense against these guys in practice is such that a really talented guy who is ball-dominant is going to stand out more

In other words, I don't think that a Duke practice is necessarily the best barometer. After all, Barrett HAS looked totally dominant against non-Power-5/power programs so far (52.5 fg%, 61.3 TS%, 2.7 A/TO). It's just when you look at the sample of power-5s plus Gonzaga that he looks more ordinary (42.7 FG%, 48.3 TS%, 1.3 A/TO). So if we assume that maybe facing a Vrankovic/DeLaurier/White/O'Connell/Goldwire group is more like a mid-major than a power-5 or power school, that would make sense as to why the impression of Barrett would be higher from practice.

I'm sure some of it too is that Williamson has gotten better. But I'm guessing a lot of it is talent gap in opposition and Barrett being just as tenacious in practice whereas maybe Williamson dials it down just a bit like most people do.

JasonEvans
12-14-2018, 02:06 PM
I guess it depends on where one rated him coming in. I've heard some folks say he would be ahead of guys like Bagley, for example. I don't think he's going to do that in college. When he drops 30 and 15 against 4 Power-5 schools (and 30 and 20 against anyone) and gets his TS% up near 64%, I'll agree that those folks weren't overrating him.

CDu, you are one of the smartest posters around these parts. So shame on you for citing a couple career high kind of games versus using a larger sample size ;)

I think per game averages and some of the more advanced stats can help us here:

https://i.ibb.co/fMYy2BB/Capture.png
(win shares are per 40min played)

This seems to confirm Barrett as the better pure scorer and defender (by a fairly significant amount), though Bagey was unquestionably more efficient and a far better rebounder (not surprising in a post player versus a perimeter one). The fact that Barrett is not a better outside shooter could be problematic, though it feels (eye test time) like Barrett has better shooting form and a much quicker release than Bagley. Put another way, I think Barrett will be a legit three-point threat at the next level in a way that Bagley is not (at least not yet, Marvin is only averaging 1 3FGA per game in the NBA).

Granted, RJ has not yet run the gamut of an ACC season, but it is entirely possible his game will improve as the year moves along. Also worth noting, many believe that Bagley had the greatest freshman campaign of anyone to wear a Duke uniform (until now). If RJ is merely about as good as him, I would certainly see that as meeting the lofty expectations we all had for RJ entering college.

-Jason "RJ is still going to be the #2 pick in the draft... if that is failing to meet expectations then the expectations were unreasonably lofty" Evans

Troublemaker
12-14-2018, 02:11 PM
I guess it depends on where one rated him coming in. I've heard some folks say he would be ahead of guys like Bagley, for example. I don't think he's going to do that in college. When he drops 30 and 15 against 4 Power-5 schools (and 30 and 20 against anyone) and gets his TS% up near 64%, I'll agree that those folks weren't overrating him.

If the idea was just that he was a really talented kid with a super-high ceiling but some definite limitations at this juncture, I agree. And unquestionably one of the 2-3 best players in his high school class for sure.

To be clear, I don't mean he was wildly overrated. Just a little overrated. Still a terrific player though.

RJ is better than Marvin. I'm just not that big a fan of postup 4s, and I was never on the bandwagon of Marvin being Duke's best freshman ever, as you know. Frankly, I would take all 4 of Duke's freshman starters this season over Marvin, who was arguably a net zero when it came to impact on winning.

The problem with a postup 4 like Marvin is that they clog the lanes and make life tougher for driving guards like Trevon and Grayson. So, while Marvin was extremely efficient with the possessions he used, the downgrade in efficiency for Grayson and Trevon made the overall impact to winning close to a wash, imo. (When Marvin was out with injury last season, Duke didn't miss a beat and was arguably better.) Under Duke's original plan for the 2017-18 season -- Kevin Knox as a stretch 4 -- I suspect Grayson and Trevon would've had much better seasons.

Coincidentally, Zach Lowe had a blurb about Marvin at the 4 today in his weekly "10 Things I Like and Don't Like" column (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25527167/10-things-like-including-karl-anthony-towns-nba).

https://i.imgur.com/4Afzi19.png

Lowe did note that if Marvin develops his 3-pt shot, the pain of playing him at the 4 will be somewhat alleviated. Also, free agency may send some of the Kings' centers packing, which will allow Marvin to play the 5 more often.

Hopefully Mavin sees lots of time at the 5 in his NBA future. I would love to have him succeed and possibly become a star at the NBA level that has an impact on winning.




I'm guessing it's more of:
(a) Barrett is a tenacious guy at all times and as such tries to dominate even in practice; and
(b) the quality of defense against these guys in practice is such that a really talented guy who is ball-dominant is going to stand out more

In other words, I don't think that a Duke practice is necessarily the best barometer. After all, Barrett HAS looked totally dominant against non-Power-5/power programs so far (52.5 fg%, 61.3 TS%, 2.7 A/TO). It's just when you look at the sample of power-5s plus Gonzaga that he looks more ordinary (42.7 FG%, 48.3 TS%, 1.3 A/TO). So if we assume that maybe facing a Vrankovic/DeLaurier/White/O'Connell/Goldwire group is more like a mid-major than a power-5 or power school, that would make sense as to why the impression of Barrett would be higher from practice.

I'm sure some of it too is that Williamson has gotten better. But I'm guessing a lot of it is talent gap in opposition and Barrett being just as tenacious in practice whereas maybe Williamson dials it down just a bit like most people do.

Maybe, but when Duke scrimmages in practice, they probably create balanced teams pretty often. Also, I suspect RJ becomes more efficient against the P5 schools as well. He just hasn't had the opportunity to apply the early season lessons yet.

DavidBenAkiva
12-14-2018, 02:26 PM
RJ is better than Marvin. I'm just not that big a fan of postup 4s, and I was never on the bandwagon of Marvin being Duke's best freshman ever, as you know. Frankly, I would take all 4 of Duke's freshman starters this season over Marvin, who was arguably a net zero when it came to impact on winning.

The problem with a postup 4 like Marvin is that they clog the lanes and make life tougher for driving guards like Trevon and Grayson. So, while Marvin was extremely efficient with the possessions he used, the downgrade in efficiency for Grayson and Trevon made the overall impact to winning close to a wash, imo. (When Marvin was out with injury last season, Duke didn't miss a beat and was arguably better.) Under Duke's original plan for the 2017-18 season -- Kevin Knox as a stretch 4 -- I suspect Grayson and Trevon would've had much better seasons.

Hopefully Mavin sees lots of time at the 5 in his NBA future. I would love to have him succeed and possibly become a star at the NBA level that has an impact on winning.

Something to note about MBIII is that he is neck-and-neck with Luke Doncic in scoring per 48 minutes. For rookies, he is scoring 26.3 pts per 48 while Luka is at 26.5. And so far, he is shooting the ball well from deep, to the tune of 34.6%. I think his future is as a stretch 5 as well, if he can continue to develop as a rim protector.

MChambers
12-14-2018, 02:33 PM
I'm sure some of it too is that Williamson has gotten better. But I'm guessing a lot of it is talent gap in opposition and Barrett being just as tenacious in practice whereas maybe Williamson dials it down just a bit like most people do.
Someone, perhaps Chris Spatola, recently said that Williamson works as hard in practice as in games and that the other freshmen needed to develop better practice habits.

CDu
12-14-2018, 03:08 PM
RJ is better than Marvin. I'm just not that big a fan of postup 4s, and I was never on the bandwagon of Marvin being Duke's best freshman ever, as you know. Frankly, I would take all 4 of Duke's freshman starters this season over Marvin, who was arguably a net zero when it came to impact on winning.

The problem with a postup 4 like Marvin is that they clog the lanes and make life tougher for driving guards like Trevon and Grayson. So, while Marvin was extremely efficient with the possessions he used, the downgrade in efficiency for Grayson and Trevon made the overall impact to winning close to a wash, imo. (When Marvin was out with injury last season, Duke didn't miss a beat and was arguably better.) Under Duke's original plan for the 2017-18 season -- Kevin Knox as a stretch 4 -- I suspect Grayson and Trevon would've had much better seasons.

Coincidentally, Zach Lowe had a blurb about Marvin at the 4 today in his weekly "10 Things I Like and Don't Like" column (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/25527167/10-things-like-including-karl-anthony-towns-nba).

https://i.imgur.com/4Afzi19.png

Lowe did note that if Marvin develops his 3-pt shot, the pain of playing him at the 4 will be somewhat alleviated. Also, free agency may send some of the Kings' centers packing, which will allow Marvin to play the 5 more often.

Hopefully Mavin sees lots of time at the 5 in his NBA future. I would love to have him succeed and possibly become a star at the NBA level that has an impact on winning.

Ah, it was you who I was having this discussion with last year then, I presume. I couldn't remember who it was.

I think it's highly debatable whether Barrett is a better college player than Bagley. He certainly hasn't been the better player to this point, by pretty much any metric. Maybe he'll pass Bagley as the season goes on. We'll see. Though I think last year's team underutilized Bagley a lot due to not having a good PG and by having their second-best player play the same position as him.

I think I mentioned this previously, but a big part of the reason that Duke did "so well" without Bagley is a function of two things:
(1) they played a pretty favorable part of their schedule: Notre Dame without Wells; Georgia Tech; two mediocre teams (Va Tech and Louisville) at home; Clemson without their PG)
(2) they happened to have ANOTHER really dominant big man - just not as dominant

Barrett has the advantage of having a much more appropriate surrounding cast than Bagley. While last year's team had a ton of talent, they lacked versatility and polish. Trent was pretty much a college SF/PF exclusively. Allen a SG who could pass a little. Duval a theoretical PG but lacking good a PG mindset and not being able to shoot at all. And Carter being a true center who lacked the mobility to do anything but play the paint; and the bench just being too inexperienced. This year, we have another freak of nature (Williamson) capable of playing SF, PF, and C, and not looking lost against guards. We have a SF who can defend PG-PF, can handle the ball/create his own shot, and can space the floor off ball. We have a PG who is a pure PG, and who can shoot it more than a foot from the rim. And our reserves are a year more experienced now, and better able to provide some value on the court. It's just a much more versatile cast, whereas last year's team had too many one/few-dimensional players.

But even with those limitations, Bagley put up better numbers than Barrett has (so far).

I'd shutter to think about how many points and rebounds Bagley would get as the starting center of this year's team with a better passer/floor general like Tre Jones at PG instead of Duval, and with Williamson drawing attention away from him. If you switched their places, I think you'd see Duke be just as good if not better this year and no better and probably a little worse last year. Obviously we'll never know, but that's my feeling.

That's not to say that Barrett won't ultimately be a better NBA player. As you correctly note, Bagley will have to adapt to be as dominant at the next level. He's going to have to shoot more from 3 and prove that his 39.7% 3pt percentage last year wasn't a small sample size fluke. He's currently shooting 34.5%, so there's work to be done. If Barrett can improve his ballhandling, decisionmaking, and shooting, he's got prototypical NBA wing size. The ceiling comp of Butler is totally reasonable if he develops in those areas. But those aren't necessarily EASY areas to improve. And if he doesn't develop in these areas, it's hard to see him being a star in the NBA.

To be fair, though, we're debating about two terrific college freshmen. And, to bring it back to the thread, both pale in comparison to Williamson (so far).

DukieInBrasil
12-14-2018, 04:30 PM
RJ is better than Marvin. I'm just not that big a fan of postup 4s, and I was never on the bandwagon of Marvin being Duke's best freshman ever, as you know. Frankly, I would take all 4 of Duke's freshman starters this season over Marvin, who was arguably a net zero when it came to impact on winning.

The problem with a postup 4 like Marvin is that they clog the lanes and make life tougher for driving guards like Trevon and Grayson. So, while Marvin was extremely efficient with the possessions he used, the downgrade in efficiency for Grayson and Trevon made the overall impact to winning close to a wash, imo. (When Marvin was out with injury last season, Duke didn't miss a beat and was arguably better.) Under Duke's original plan for the 2017-18 season -- Kevin Knox as a stretch 4 -- I suspect Grayson and Trevon would've had much better seasons.

Lowe did note that if Marvin develops his 3-pt shot, the pain of playing him at the 4 will be somewhat alleviated. Also, free agency may send some of the Kings' centers packing, which will allow Marvin to play the 5 more often.

Hopefully Mavin sees lots of time at the 5 in his NBA future. I would love to have him succeed and possibly become a star at the NBA level that has an impact on winning.

Maybe, but when Duke scrimmages in practice, they probably create balanced teams pretty often. Also, I suspect RJ becomes more efficient against the P5 schools as well. He just hasn't had the opportunity to apply the early season lessons yet.
The lack of a 3pt shot held Duval back more than Bagley's presence. And as CDu noted, pairing Bagley with Carter created problems for them both, and for the team. You said that Duke got demonstrably better without Bagley in those games he missed. Maybe they did, but we never had to play without Carter so we never got to see if Duke would have improved with Bagley on the floor and not Carter. So putting the "underperformance" of last year's team on Bagley is misplaced IMHO (where the H is dunking on fools like it was Zion). But yes, Bagley will need to continue to improve on an already decent 3pt shot to be able to become an elite NBA player. Also, MB3 was not just a post-up forward, he hit alost 40% of his 3s, drove from the wing, and was an insanely good Oboard putback jammer.
Also, no, i would not take Cam Reddish over Marvin, and it is um, not a particularly useful exercise to compare such radically different players as Tre Jones and Marvin. If we could purely mix and match players ignoring the space time continuum, last year's team with Jones would probably be as good or better than this year's team with Duval, partly b/c Bagley would have a brilliant passing PG, a good defender at PG generating turnovers and fast breaks, and a 3pt shooter to create space for MB3. Put Duval AND Bagley on this year's squad in exchange for Jones and Zion, and yes RJ would probably look a lot better b/c he could act as even more of a point forward than he already is and he would have MB3 at the 5 (and also because that would put Bolden or Javin back on the bench). In that hypothetical player swap, i'd be hard pressed to choose which is better: the '18 squad lacked a game-managing PG but also took away Duval's primary value by clogging the lane with 2 super good bigs. However great Zion has been so far, he can't shoot 3s, and Bagley can.


I think it's highly debatable whether Barrett is a better college player than Bagley. He certainly hasn't been the better player to this point, by pretty much any metric. Maybe he'll pass Bagley as the season goes on. We'll see. Though I think last year's team underutilized Bagley a lot due to not having a good PG and by having their second-best player play the same position as him.

I think I mentioned this previously, but a big part of the reason that Duke did "so well" without Bagley is a function of two things:
(1) they played a pretty favorable part of their schedule: Notre Dame without Wells; Georgia Tech; two mediocre teams (Va Tech and Louisville) at home; Clemson without their PG)
(2) they happened to have ANOTHER really dominant big man - just not as dominant

Barrett has the advantage of having a much more appropriate surrounding cast than Bagley. While last year's team had a ton of talent, they lacked versatility and polish. Trent was pretty much a college SF/PF exclusively. Allen a SG who could pass a little. Duval a theoretical PG but lacking good a PG mindset and not being able to shoot at all. And Carter being a true center who lacked the mobility to do anything but play the paint; and the bench just being too inexperienced. This year, we have another freak of nature (Williamson) capable of playing SF, PF, and C, and not looking lost against guards. We have a SF who can defend PG-PF, can handle the ball/create his own shot, and can space the floor off ball. We have a PG who is a pure PG, and who can shoot it more than a foot from the rim. And our reserves are a year more experienced now, and better able to provide some value on the court. It's just a much more versatile cast, whereas last year's team had too many one/few-dimensional players.

But even with those limitations, Bagley put up better numbers than Barrett has (so far).

I'd shutter to think about how many points and rebounds Bagley would get as the starting center of this year's team with a better passer/floor general like Tre Jones at PG instead of Duval, and with Williamson drawing attention away from him. If you switched their places, I think you'd see Duke be just as good if not better this year and no better and probably a little worse last year. Obviously we'll never know, but that's my feeling.

That's not to say that Barrett won't ultimately be a better NBA player. As you correctly note, Bagley will have to adapt to be as dominant at the next level. He's going to have to shoot more from 3 and prove that his 39.7% 3pt percentage last year wasn't a small sample size fluke. He's currently shooting 34.5%, so there's work to be done. If Barrett can improve his ballhandling, decisionmaking, and shooting, he's got prototypical NBA wing size. The ceiling comp of Butler is totally reasonable if he develops in those areas. But those aren't necessarily EASY areas to improve. And if he doesn't develop in these areas, it's hard to see him being a star in the NBA.

To be fair, though, we're debating about two terrific college freshmen. And, to bring it back to the thread, both pale in comparison to Williamson (so far).

House P
12-14-2018, 05:15 PM
I don't think RJ was overrated. He's on track to become what was expected (imo), and other than Zion, I wouldn't take another freshman in the country over him, either at the college level or in the NBA draft.

Of course, the difficulty with determining if someone (or something) is overrated often lies with the difficulty of determining how highly rated they were in the first place. As Troublemaker points out, it is questionable to say the RJ was overrated based on class ranking if he ends up as the #2 player in the class instead of the #1 player.

I don't know how the numerical "grades" are assigned in the ESPN recruiting rankings. However, if they are somehow meant to translate from one year to the next, I think it is telling that RJ received a 96 grade from ESPN (the lowest rating of any incoming #1 player in the database which goes back to the class of 2007). Here is a list of players who also received a 96 rating in the past 5 years

Mo Bamba
Wendell Carter
Trevon Duval
Bam Adebayo
De'Arron Fox
Markelle Fultz
Miles Bridges
Malik Monk
Frank Jackson
Skal Labissiere
Brandon Ingram
Jaylen Brown
Henry Ellenson
Theo Pinson
Kelly Oubre
Kevon Looney
D'Angelo Russell
Jabari Parker
Julius Randle
Aaron Gordon
Andrew Harrison

Based on that list, it is hard to say RJ was overrated by ESPN. If RJ really is a 96 grade, the only way he ends up looking overrated is because it now seems like Zion should have probably been and 98 or 99 grade.

Of course, I am sure that there are lots of other sources who rated RJ more highly than Andrew Harrison. :)

loran16
12-14-2018, 07:17 PM
Basketball analytics writer John Gasaway has wrote some things featuring Zion's uniqueness compared to players we've seen before this week.

First on ESPN+ http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/25447660/how-zion-williamson-made-2-pointer-big-deal-again, talking about how Zion's combination of 2 point accuracy and volume is unprecedented.

Then on twitter, he noted: At a minimum of 250 minutes, four of the best eight BPM seasons of the past decade are nominally happening right now, courtesy of Zion and three similarly interior-oriented Zion epigones...https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/play-index/tiny.fcgi?id=zmovz

Tripping William
12-18-2018, 01:44 PM
More Zion love today, this time from The New York Times (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/18/sports/zion-williamson-duke.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR286tQwkcFz9NSQ8Ng287zlkDRjAJgkxIjVqu3Rc MS-qA3pD5TGewtVP9g).

One money quote:


One of the intangibles that Krzyzewski particularly enjoys is Williamson’s joyfulness. It is on display in pregame warm-ups, when the big man with a guard’s mentality alternates high-wattage smiles with acrobatic dunks and all manner of fist bumps and hand slaps with his teammates.

The joy was palpable in the waning moments of the Yale blowout here, when Williamson — his afternoon complete — remained on his feet in front of the Duke bench, offering full-throated support to the extras taking a rare turn in the Cameron Indoor Stadium spotlight.

CDu
12-18-2018, 03:13 PM
CDu, you are one of the smartest posters around these parts. So shame on you for citing a couple career high kind of games versus using a larger sample size ;)

Those were off-hand examples, not the basis for my argument. ;) The advanced stats (BPM, PER) tend to suggest Bagley's season was slightly better than Barrett's has been so far. Now, it's certainly possible that Barrett will improve as the season goes on. That remains to be seen. What I don't think is fair is to say that Barrett has clearly been better than Bagley was. He just hasn't. And that's in spite of having the advantage of playing with a real PG and with the pressure relief that is Zion Williamson drawing so much defensive attention away.

Maybe Barrett will get there this year. If his 3pt shooting remains way better than it was in high school, he has a chance. We'll see, and time will tell.

And that's not meant as a knock on Barrett. He is VERY good. Right now, he's putting up the third-best rookie season in Duke history, with a realistic chance to make it to #2. When I said he was a bit overrated by some, I really meant only a bit. I'm sorry that this has derailed so substantially on that singular comment, which was not the meat of the point at all.

Regardless, what Williamson is doing makes the whole thing silly, because clearly HE is the one heading toward being the most dominant freshman in Duke history. Just crazy that both Bagley and Barrett have put up amazing numbers... and both pale in comparison to what Williamson is doing. He's putting up anywhere from 130%-200% (depending on which advanced metric you use) of the value of either Bagley or Barrett right now.

budwom
12-18-2018, 03:21 PM
I haven't followed that closely, but are you comparing whole season stats for Bagley et al vs. Zion's current stats? If so, there ought to be an adjustment for the relative cupcakeness of our schedule so far (tough Zion has prospered vs both good and bad teams I readily concede)...nonetheless, extraordinary start for Wiliamson.

I'm intrigued as to whether Zion or Barrettt will be considered the higher draft choice...if Zion develops a reasonably reliable jump shot, it's him for sure. Right now I could see Barrett being a very equal challenger.

It will be fun following these statistical factors throughout the season.

CDu
12-18-2018, 03:29 PM
I haven't followed that closely, but are you comparing whole season stats for Bagley et al vs. Zion's current stats? If so, there ought to be an adjustment for the relative cupcakeness of our schedule so far (tough Zion has prospered vs both good and bad teams I readily concede)...nonetheless, extraordinary start for Wiliamson.

I'm intrigued as to whether Zion or Barrettt will be considered the higher draft choice...if Zion develops a reasonably reliable jump shot, it's him for sure. Right now I could see Barrett being a very equal challenger.

It will be fun following these statistical factors throughout the season.

Yes, that's absolutely fair (and can equally be applied to the Bagley/Barrett comparison). It's entirely possible that ACC play will bring down Williamson's efficiency. He certainly hasn't been as dominant against decent teams as he has against cupcakes, which of course makes sense. Whether or not it will be enough to bring him all the way down to Bagley's level, I don't know. He's WAAAAY above Bagley right now, and we're at least 25% of the way through the season now.

budwom
12-18-2018, 03:51 PM
Yeah, Zion thus far has simply outmatched (crushed in fact) a number of teams in the paint...can he maintain that level of dominance vs some longer, more athletic guys in ACC play? I sure wouldn't rule it out...

Should be a very interesting next few months...

English
12-19-2018, 01:30 PM
While it probably won't blow anyone's skirt up around here, because we're (rightfully, IMO) more interested in advanced/adjusted stats, entering the tougher portion of the schedule may actually improve Zion's counting stats. We're likely to have fewer games where we're up 25+ with 9min to go, so Zion will get more burn and still be playing at 100% effort for longer stretches of games. E.g., instead of dropping an 18 & 10 in 17mins, he may actually go for 25 & 15 in 35min.

Again, while that will potentially drop his efficiency stats, it'll almost certainly help with the less civilized stats that, I don't know, All-ACC and Player of the Week voters tend to hold near and dear.

Jeffrey
12-20-2018, 10:27 AM
I'm intrigued as to whether Zion or Barrettt will be considered the higher draft choice...if Zion develops a reasonably reliable jump shot, it's him for sure. Right now I could see Barrett being a very equal challenger.


IMO, if Zion stays healthy, then it will definitely be him. IMO, Zion has significantly more upside and a wider skill set. However, even if their upside is equal, Zion will sell many more tickets and be much more entertaining to watch! The NBA is a money game and a healthy Zion will yield a higher ROI.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-20-2018, 10:59 AM
IMO, if Zion stays healthy, then it will definitely be him. IMO, Zion has significantly more upside and a wider skill set. However, even if their upside is equal, Zion will sell many more tickets and be much more entertaining to watch! The NBA is a money game and a healthy Zion will yield a higher ROI.

NBA scouts say the same thing...as do I. (of course, it's only December now).

I think any GM who picks Zion first will not be held accountable if RJ ends up being better NBA player. Any GM who doesn't pick Zion first had better pray that RJ, or whoever they pick, is MUCH better pro than Zion. Their paying fans want to see Zion.

Ian
12-20-2018, 04:32 PM
So in tracking this obsure stat of having more PT RB AST STL and BLKS than TO, Zion has fallen off a bit, he now has 27 Ast, 24 ST and 22 Blk but 23 TO.

On the other hand, another contender has entered the arena claim this prize. Jack White currently has 14 Ast, 11 Stl, 14 Blks, and only 5 TO on the season.

HereBeforeCoachK
12-20-2018, 04:42 PM
So in tracking this obsure stat of having more PT RB AST STL and BLKS than TO, Zion has fallen off a bit, he now has 27 Ast, 24 ST and 22 Blk but 23 TO.

On the other hand, another contender has entered the arena claim this prize. Jack White currently has 14 Ast, 11 Stl, 14 Blks, and only 5 TO on the season.

..."statistical dundee...."

JasonEvans
12-20-2018, 06:01 PM
..."statistical dundee..."

So, who wants to start a thread titled The Statistical and Basketball Aberration that is Jack White?

HereBeforeCoachK
12-20-2018, 09:14 PM
So, who wants to start a thread titled The Statistical and Basketball Aberration that is Jack White?

....basketball Aberration....or Aborigine......:cool: